CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 24, 2022, 11:15:30 AM
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We'll start, as usual, with the simpler B1G-E:
Practically Penn State has to beat tOSU this weekend to stay in the race. If they do, it is a three team race between the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions. If Ohio State wins this weekend then, for all practical purposes it is a two team race.
Mathematically all teams are still in the race but mathematical eliminations will commence this weekend provided that the top teams win or the bottom teams lose.
The B1G-W is much more complex:
The top-3:
- 3-1 Illinois is easily in the best position both because they only have one loss and because their one loss was non-divisional (Indiana). They control their own destiny.
- 3-2 Purdue controls their own destiny because they beat Nebraska and have yet to play Illinois. Thus, if Purdue wins out they'll be 7-2 and no worse than tied with the IL/UNL winner whom they beat.
- 2-2 Nebraska lost to Purdue and has yet to play Illinois so they need a Purdue loss but other than that they control their own destiny.
The other four teams in the division each have three losses so they each need help but none of them are altogether out of the running.
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Barring a MAJOR upset or a series of them, Penn State's best chance in the B1G-E would be for the home teams to win all games between tOSU, M, and PSU, ie:
- Michigan beat PSU in Ann Arbor
- PSU needs to beat tOSU in Happy Valley
- tOSU would need to beat M in Columbus.
If that happened and the teams won the rest of their games then the tiebreaker would be the records of their B1G-W opponents. So far:
Michigan, 6-6:
- 3-1 Illinois
- 2-2 Nebraska
- 1-3 Iowa
Penn State, 5-8:
- 3-2 Purdue
- 1-3 Minnesota
- 1-3 Northwestern
Ohio State, 4-9:
- 2-3 Wisconsin
- 1-3 Iowa
- 1-3 Northwestern
A few weeks ago this looked like a winning formula for Penn State but at this point I think it looks good for Michigan.
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https://twitter.com/SickosCommittee/status/1584602686724268032?t=Csxi_7JjX6ffV3A9Fw_K4g&s=19
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https://twitter.com/SickosCommittee/status/1584602686724268032?t=Csxi_7JjX6ffV3A9Fw_K4g&s=19
LoL
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Sickos
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Would every team claim a divisional crown?
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they could, I wouldn't
there are tie breakers for a reason
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https://twitter.com/SickosCommittee/status/1584602686724268032?t=Csxi_7JjX6ffV3A9Fw_K4g&s=19
god please make this happen LOL
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There couldn't possibly still be a path to a Rutgers-Northwestern final.
Could there?
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they could, I wouldn't
there are tie breakers for a reason
See 1994 SWC, 5 way Tie!
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I was told there'd be no math
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As long as we are dreaming, we might as well have 4-8 NW beat the 12-0 East champion and go to the Rose Bowl.
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I'd say claim the divisional crown. I've always been of the view, if you don't want to share a title, then win enough so you don't have to. The tie-breaker is for the conference championship and that is enough of a prize all by itself.
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As long as we are dreaming, we might as well have 4-8 NW beat the 12-0 East champion and go to the Rose Bowl.
Make it even more convoluted and give the CFP committee a real headache by assuming:
- Penn State wins out to finish 11-1 with a win over tOSU and a loss to Michigan.
- Ohio State loses to Penn State but otherwise wins out to finish 11-1 with a loss to Penn State and a win over Michigan.
- Michigan wins their next four then loses to Ohio State to finish the regular season 11-1. Michigan then wins the three-way tiebreaker with tOSU and PSU and goes to Indy where they lose to sub .500 Northwestern. Thus, Michigan finishes 11-2 with a win over PSU and back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Northwestern.
At 5-8 the Wildcats are obviously not a CFP contender so they go to the RoseBowl. The B1G then has three potential playoff teams:
- 11-2 B1G-E Champion Michigan: In Michigan's favor they have a blowout win over PSU and they won the tiebreaker and went to the B1GCG. To their detriment they are on a two game skid and lost to a bad team in the CG.
- 11-1 B1G-E co-Champion Ohio State. In Ohio State's favor they just beat Michigan but to their detriment they did lose to PSU.
- 11-1 B1G-E co-Champion Penn State. In Penn State's favor they have a win over tOSU but to their detriment they got blown out by Michigan.
Ordinarily the team that lost the CG would have the argument that making the CG gave them a tougher schedule but in this case that doesn't really apply especially considering that in the above scenario both PSU and tOSU would have beaten Northwestern in the regular season. Michigan's loss to them would be pretty much inexcusable.
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Would every team claim a divisional crown?
PJ Barnum would have "co-champion" rings made, like he did in 2019.
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If Illinois beats Nebraska this weekend that more or less knocks the B1G-W down to a 2-team race between them and Purdue.
There are basically two things keeping the B1G-W interesting:
- Illinois' baffling loss to Indiana, and
- The fact that Illinois has to play Michigan (in Ann Arbor no less) right before Thanksgiving.
On the subject of Illinois' trip to Ann Arbor, the scheduling sucks for that game. It sucks for Michigan because it could be a serious trap game possibility especially if the Buckeyes and Wolverines are both undefeated heading into the last two weeks. It sucks for the CG because there is now a very real possibility that the B1GCG on December 3 could be a rematch of a game played two weeks earlier on November 19.
I'm never a fan of rematches but if we have to have one I'd prefer if it was of a game played more like two months earlier, not two weeks.
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In the B1G-E wins by tOSU and M thus weekend would mathematically eliminate Indiana and MSU and possibly Rutgers while practically eliminating everyone except the Buckeyes and Wolverines.
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I'm never a fan of rematches but if we have to have one I'd prefer if it was of a game played more like two months earlier, not two weeks.
well, the big ten schedulers didn't give Bert much of a chance to win the west back at the time
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well, the big ten schedulers didn't give Bert much of a chance to win the west back at the time
I get it but I still think it was silly to take the chance.
Indiana/Purdue is different. The Hoosiers and Boilermakers have played for the Old Oaken Bucket the last week of the season almost every year since before WWI so there is a lot of history.
Additionally, Purdue and Indiana are two of the least successful football programs in the league so the chance of either one making the CG are remote. The chances of both making the CG in the same year are vanishingly small.
Michigan is the second most successful football program in the league within their period of contiguous membership. It shouldn't be hard to forsee that they might make a CG run once in a while.
Illinois obviously has less historical success than Michigan and their overall record is bad enough to be comparable to Indiana and Purdue but Illinois is a strange case. For a program with such a bad overall record they have a surprising number of league titles. This is because Illinois' history has been a case of feast or famine. They are rarely mediocre. Historically it has been mostly awful with an occasional dose of really good thrown in.
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I get it but I still think it was silly to take the chance.
Illinois obviously has less historical success than Michigan and their overall record is bad enough to be comparable to Indiana and Purdue but Illinois is a strange case. For a program with such a bad overall record they have a surprising number of league titles. This is because Illinois' history has been a case of feast or famine. They are rarely mediocre. Historically it has been mostly awful with an occasional dose of really good thrown in.
I don't think there was much of a chance when the schedule came out
perhaps Purdue in the west, but not really. Michigan has to play someone from the west.
I suppose they could always play all conference division cross overs early in the season.
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I suppose they could always play all conference division cross overs early in the season.
This!
I would minimize crossovers late in the season which they did.
The problem is that each division has an unequal number of teams so in order to play a full slate of league games there has to be one crossover game.
To minimize the chance of a short-turnaround rematch I would not allow the historically best teams from either division to have a crossover game late. Thus my solution with this year's matchups would be:
- Final weekend, November 26: Purdue at Indiana
- Penultimate weekend, November 19: Rutgers at Minnesota
- Third-to-last weekend, November 12: Northwestern at Maryland
- One month out, November 5: Michigan State at Illinois
In this way the likely long-term top-3 from each division would not play any crossover games within a month of the CG.
- tOSU, M, and PSU from the B1G-E finish crossovers in October.
- UNL, UW, and Iowa from the B1G-W finish crossovers in October.
Even for the other four in each division:
- IU, RU, UMD, and MSU from the B1G-E play only one crossover in November and it isn't one of the historically best programs from the B1G-W so the chances of a short-turnaround rematch are miniscule.
- PU, MN, NU, and IL from the B1G-W play only one crossover in November and it isn't one of the Helmets from the B1G-E so the chances of a short-turnaround rematch are miniscule.
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I would set it up for 2 teams, 1 from each division, to get a bye the 2nd last weekend. Make sure those 2 teams are playing week zero games so that they get 2 bye weeks in a season.
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I would set it up for 2 teams, 1 from each division, to get a bye the 2nd last weekend. Make sure those 2 teams are playing week zero games so that they get 2 bye weeks in a season.
That is a good idea. I didn't want any byes that late but I hadn't thought of compensating by having them start a week early and get two byes. All you need is an annual crossover in week zero.