CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 16, 2022, 12:21:40 AM
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B1G-E:
Ohio State and Michigan control their own destiny and look to be on course for one of the greatest ever editions of The Game.
Penn State certainly didn't look like a Championship contender but they are still in the race if they can win out. If that happens then they'll need one of two things:
- Michigan to lose twice, or
- Ohio State to also finish 8-1. In this case the three-way tie between PSU, M, and tOSU would be broken based on who played the best B1G-W teams and PSU would probably win.
The teams behind PSU are all practically eliminated as they each have two or three losses including one to either the Buckeyes or Wolverines.
B1G-W:
Purdue and Illinois each have only one loss and that one loss was non-divisional so they are in MUCH better shape than the rest of the division. All the others need a lot of help.
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Purdue and Illinois have a reasonable chance to win their next few games to basically set up the B1G-W division championship on November 12th in Champagne-Urbana. But do we trust these teams to not drop a WTF game at some point this year?
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Purdue and Illinois have a reasonable chance to win their next few games to basically set up the B1G-W division championship on November 12th in Champagne-Urbana. But do we trust these teams to not drop a WTF game at some point this year?
I hope Purdue does just that this coming weekend.
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Wisconsin has won 15 straight games against Purdue dating back to "The Fumble" curse of 2004.
This year actually looks like the year Purdue snaps the streak. The Boilers have been great against the run without loading the box, and they finally have enough DL talent to constantly rotate, keeping bodies fresh.
On the offensive side, look out, Purdue now has a run game. Mockobee has taken over the starting role and is averaging 5.7 ypc. Combine that with one of the best passing games in the B1G and Brohm finally found some balance to throw at opposing defenses.
Of course, the game is in Madison so the streak just might continue.
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This is certainly the year to beat Wisconsin, for teams who haven't done it in a while.
Illinois was the first to step up.
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Purdue and Illinois have a reasonable chance to win their next few games to basically set up the B1G-W division championship on November 12th in Champagne-Urbana. But do we trust these teams to not drop a WTF game at some point this year?
Illinois already did. Their loss to Indiana gets more and more inexplicable each week.
Based on how PSU looked in Ann Arbor, Purdue's loss to the Nittany Lions might be theirs.
You make a good point about the PU at IL game on November 12 being a likely defacto B1G-W Championship Game. Not only are Purdue and Illinois co-leaders at 3-1, but their losses were non-divisional so they have a leg up in the tiebreakers if it should come to that. Let's look a little deeper at the rest of the West:
2-2 Nebraska is next but the Cornhuskers are 0-2 in the division with losses to Purdue and Northwestern. They have this week off but if they lose to Illinois next week they'll be pretty much finished at 2-3 in the league and 0-3 in the division.
1-2 Northwestern is theoretically ahead of the other 1-2 teams because they are 1-1 in the division with a win over Nebraska and a loss to UW. They technically control their own destiny since they would win a tie with Nebraska, they haven't played PU or IL yet, and the team that beat them has more losses than they do.
1-2 Iowa is 0-1 in the division with a loss to IL. They need help but they could get there. They need to figure out how to generate points on offense though.
1-2 Minnesota is clearly in the worst shape of the 1-2 teams both because they are 0-2 in the division and because their two losses were to the two co-leaders. They need a LOT of help.
1-3 Wisconsin is 1-1 in the division. The biggest obstacle is that the loss was to 3-1 Illinois which means that the Badgers are effectively three games behind the Illini so they need all kinds of help.
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Minnesota went from heavy favorite to basically out of it, real quick.
Things are shaping up rather well for even year Northwestern.
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Purdue's pass defense is just too horrible to win out. Both their coverage and tackling after the catch are awful. No lead is safe for Purdue and they will get burned again.
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I agree, however, a couple things have changed in the last week or so.
Purdue now has a run game and Brohm has learned to manage the clock. Something tells me Purdue will be able to close out games with a more manageable lead.
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Purdue's pass defense is just too horrible to win out. Both their coverage and tackling after the catch are awful. No lead is safe for Purdue and they will get burned again.
Fortunately for Purdue, their remaining opponents are UW, IA, IL, NU, and IU. I note a lack of scary passing offenses.
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As is normally the case in well structured divisions, the de facto semifinals appear to be Ohio State-Michigan and Illinois-Purdue
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B1G-E:
Ohio State and Michigan control their own destiny and look to be on course for one of the greatest ever editions of The Game.
Valenti and his buddy on their Detroit 97.1 show were yesterday going so far as to say as the National Championship runs through the Big 10 East this year – “National Champion is going to be either Ohio State or Michigan…no smarm, no sarcasm, no BS.”
Their praise for Michigan:
“You don’t fake 416 yards of rushing. You don’t fake what this team is doing [Michigan]…you don’t demolish someone and demoralize someone the way they did if you’re not legit…this might be, for Michigan fans, your best team.”
“Michigan rushed for more yards in that game than Penn State had given up in the entire season. 416 to 398. It was so good that Blake Corum wasn’t your leading rusher.”
“I think you [Michigan] broke Penn State…Penn State had the number ten next to their name similar to early in the year we thought Notre Dame was going to be better. And I think Ohio State kinda broke them. I think Michigan broke Penn State. I think Penn State will finish out the year losing more games than they will win. That was just flat out embarrassing.” “I will wait until people make fun of James Franklin’s contract the way they do Mel Tucker’s.”
Not since the late-90s have I watched a Michigan team, week-in/week-out, dominate their schedule as this Wolverines team is going on about 15 games now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX6U_VeODfY
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Not since the late-90s have I watched a Michigan team, week-in/week-out, dominate their schedule as this Wolverines team is going on about 15 games now.
I don't quite understand this, didn't they drop one to MSU last year and somebody else?
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If I had to guess at Big Ten bowl projections
Mich/OSU winner - CFP
Mich/OSU loser - Rose
PSU - Citrus
ILL - Tampa (the old Outback bowl, whatever it's called now)
Purdue - Duke's Mayo
MD - Music
Minn - Pinnstripe
Iowa - (Arizona whatever it's called now)
MSU - Detroit
NW, Neb, Wisc, Rut, Ind - stay home
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If I had to guess at Big Ten bowl projections
Mich/OSU loser - Rose
Probably but depending on what happens elsewhere it isn't all that unlikely that the M/tOSU loser could join the winner in the CFP.
If I had to guess at Big Ten bowl projections
PSU - Citrus
Minn - Pinnstripe
This is why I see this weekend's PSU/MN game as so important.
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If I had to guess at Big Ten bowl projections
Mich/OSU winner - CFP
Mich/OSU loser - Rose
PSU - Citrus
ILL - Tampa (the old Outback bowl, whatever it's called now)
Purdue - Duke's Mayo
MD - Music
Minn - Pinnstripe
Iowa - (Arizona whatever it's called now)
MSU - Detroit
NW, Neb, Wisc, Rut, Ind - stay home
If IL or Purdue win enough they or the Mich/OSU loser could both end up in NY6, though I'd bet against it.
I'm also not sure sure about MSU getting to 6, but at least the Motor Shitty bowl would make for an easy trip and sell tix.
PSU better not get selected for the Citrus if they go 8-4 or 7-5. It already was crappy enough they were elevated to the Outback Bowl over better performing teams last year.
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A really convoluted and not all that unlikely Bowl scenario: Assume that:
- Purdue loses at Wisconsin this weekend but wins out from there including the B1GCG over
- Ohio State wins out to the CG where they lose to Purdue.
- Michigan wins out until The Game where they lose to tOSU.
- Penn State loses to tOSU but otherwise wins out to finish 10-2.
- Illinois loses to Purdue but otherwise wins out to finish 10-2.
So the top B1G teams (as far as CFP/NY6/BOWL pecking order) would be (guessing here):
- 12-1 B1G-E Champ tOSU (lost to PU)
- 11-1 M (lost to tOSU)
- 10-3 B1G Champion Purdue (lost to UW, PSU, Cuse)
- 10-2 Penn State
- 10-2 Illinois
There would be a decent chance that tOSU would make the CFP anyway and Michigan wouldn't necessarily be out of contention depending on what happens in the ACC, PAC, and B12.
Purdue goes to the Rose.
Ohio State and Michigan go either CFP or NY6.
Penn State Citrus.
Illinois . . . Outback?
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