CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 15, 2022, 09:51:57 PM
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Link to prior rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-6-30649/).
Votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) :
(https://i.imgur.com/Dkib9f5.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/vU1aOEj.png)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/XlQhKQz.png)
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Illinois
- Penn State
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Minnesota
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Indiana
- Michigan State
- Nebraska
- Rutgers
- Northwestern
I was a bit tempted to move Michigan up a notch. The Wolverines have an opportunity to prove themselves as the season progresses. Their victory today was impressive.
I wonder if Coach Franklin will be looking elsewhere, or if Penn State will look elsewhere before Franklin starts looking.
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Illinois
4. Penn State
5. Purdue
6. Maryland
7. Iowa
8. Wisconsin
9. Minnesota
10. Indiana
11. Nebraska
12. Michigan State
13. Rutgers
14. Northwestern
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I wonder if Coach Franklin will be looking elsewhere, or if Penn State will look elsewhere before Franklin starts looking.
I'm guessing the latter,that wasn't a resume' builder for the former
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1) Putting the Target on Michigan's Back
2)Hopefully Buckeyes can slide into Nov 26 unbeaten
3)Illini - Bert- the Beat Goes On,heading into the bye week bye week
4)PSU - I guess
5)Purdue interchangable with the Terps,got a 4 game winning streak
6)Terps
7)Gophs
8)Iowa
9)MSU
10)UW
11)Hoosiers
12)Rutgers
13)UNL
14)NU
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Remember a couple weeks ago after PSU and Minn had 2 big blowout wins and we were wondering if they were actually good or was it really just all a mirage? I guess we have our answer. Anyway, I think I have seen enough to finally shake things up.
1. Mich - We have been seeing signs for weeks now that Mich has a special team. Blake Corum is outstanding.
2. OSU - the dismantling of Wisc does not look as impressive now.
3. ILL - may not deserve to be this high, but ILL is one team that can at least play defense. Impressive wins over Wisc and Minn, but a close loss to IND and a near give-away to Iowa shows they can be vulnerable.
4. PSU - it was tempting to drop them further. The Mich loss was not even close. But PSU still has the early victory over Purdue.
5. Purdue- the most exciting team in football. Every game is high scoring and comes down to the wire. Well, Purdue figured out a way to run out the clock when it has a lead. By going for it on 4th amd short and later completing long passes on 3rd and long. But I am afraid Purdue's pass defense is just not good enough to win every game.
6. MD - only losses are close losses to Mich and Purdue. It's tempting to rank them higher than PSU but at least PSU beat Purdue.
7. Minn - maybe this is not Minn's year afterall. Once potent offense has not been showing up in October.
8. Iowa - #8 always seems about right for Iowa. A defense good enough to maybe win every game. An offense that could lose every game.
9. Neb - bumping them up even though they lost. If they have nothing else, Neb has one awesome WR that can exploit bad pass defenses.
10. IND - the mystery grows how Ind ever beat ILL. But I think I have seen enough to think they are better than MSU and Wisc
11. MSU - showing signs of life after a disappointing start
12. Wisc - their turnaround looks like a short one
13. Rut - They are probably not this bad but I will wait till they actually beat someone to move them up.
14. NW - It may be time to give up on the usual NW miracle turnaround. This team is just bad.
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Remember a couple weeks ago after PSU and Minn had 2 big blowout wins and we were wondering if they were actually good or was it really just all a mirage? I guess we have our answer. Anyway, I think I have seen enough to finally shake things up.
1. Mich - We have been seeing signs for weeks now that Mich has a special team. Blake Corum is outstanding.
2. OSU - the dismantling of Wisc does not look as impressive now.
3. ILL - may not deserve to be this high, but ILL is one team that can at least play defense. Impressive wins over Wisc and Minn, but a close loss to IND and a near give-away to Iowa shows they can be vulnerable.
4. PSU - it was tempting to drop them further. The Mich loss was not even close. But PSU still has the early victory over Purdue.
5. Purdue- the most exciting team in football. Every game is high scoring and comes down to the wire. Well, Purdue figured out a way to run out the clock when it has a lead. By going for it on 4th amd short and later completing long passes on 3rd and long. But I am afraid Purdue's pass defense is just not good enough to win every game.
6. MD - only losses are close losses to Mich and Purdue. It's tempting to rank them higher than PSU but at least PSU beat Purdue.
7. Minn - maybe this is not Minn's year afterall. Once potent offense has not been showing up in October.
8. Iowa - #8 always seems about right for Iowa. A defense good enough to maybe win every game. An offense that could lose every game.
9. Neb - bumping them up even though they lost. If they have nothing else, Neb has one awesome WR that can exploit bad pass defenses.
10. IND - the mystery grows how Ind ever beat ILL. But I think I have seen enough to think they are better than MSU and Wisc
11. MSU - showing signs of life after a disappointing start
12. Wisc - their turnaround looks like a short one
13. Rut - They are probably not this bad but I will wait till they actually beat someone to move them up.
14. It may be time to give up on the usual NW miracle turnaround. This team is just bad.
flip OSU to #1 & Mich to #2 and that’s pretty much my list.
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1) Michigan - OL/DL are nasty
2) Ohio State - Bye
3) Penn State - I don't want to overreact to what was a bad matchup for them.
4) Illinois - Offense isn't great, but does enough.
5) Purdue - They seem to play to the strength of their opponent
6) Maryland - Wasn't pretty, but got the W. Now we see how long Taulia is out.
7) Iowa - Bye
8) Minnesota - Defense worse than Iowa's and offense looking pretty miserable.
9) Michigan State - Showed some life
10) Wisconsin - Back to earth
11) Nebraska - Gave Purdue a good fight
12) Indiana - Pesky
13) Rutgers - Bye
14) Northwestern - Bye
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Illinois
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Iowa
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Nebraska
- Michigan State
- Rutgers
- Indiana
- Northwestern
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
(Just like the good old days. Big 2/Little 8 in bold.)
3. Penn State
4. Illinois
5. Purdue
6. Maryland
7. Minnesota
8. Iowa
9. Nebraska
10. Michigan State
11. Wisconsin
12. Rutgers
13. Indiana
14. Northwestern
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I will not be voting this week as I did not get to watch any games due to traveling.
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So what that resume may land you at ESPiN, chime in any way
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My prior rankings are in parentheses in chronological order from most recent at L to preseason at R:
- Ohio State (1,1,1,2,1,1,1), Off this week but their wins over ND and UW both took further hits and their closest challenger looked REALLY good.
- Michigan (2,2,3,3,2,2,2), There is obviously a strong argument to move the Wolverines to #1. They did look REALLY good against the Nittany Lions. I am going to hold off until I see how Ohio State does against Iowa relative to the fact that Michigan already beat Iowa by 13 on the road.
- Penn State (3,3,2,1,3,4,4), Probably still the third best team in the league but it sucks for them that while they'd be the favorite to win the B1G-W they could be almost mathematically eliminated in the B1G-E in October if they lose their next two.
- Illinois (4,7,11,10,10,13,9), That loss in Bloomington looks stranger by the week.
- Purdue (6,6,9,7,7,7,7), Looking good but can they finally overcome the Badgers?
- Minnesota (5,4,4,4,5,6,8), The Gophers managed to go from odds-on favorite to win the B1G-W to also-ran in two weeks.
- Iowa (8,8,7,11,11,8,6), I still don't know what to think of Iowa. Their defense is so good that they kept it close with Michigan and are a credible threat to upset anyone including tOSU in Columbus this weekend. Conversely, their offense is so bad that anyone is a credible threat to beat them and they could lose at home to Northwestern the week after playing in Columbus.
- Maryland (7,5,5,8,8,9,12), I dropped the Terps a spot because they shouldn't have been in such a close game with the Hoosiers.
- Nebraska (10,12,13,14,14,14,14), I moved the Cornhuskers up a spot because they were at least competitive with Purdue and because Wisconsin did not look good.
- Wisconsin (9,9,6,5,6,3,3), Just when I thought maybe they had the ship righted in Madison. Still, I'm leaving them ahead of MSU because it was an OT win by the home team and because I still think that the rest of UW's resume is better than the rest of MSU's.
- Michigan State (11,10,8,6,4,5,5), Turn-around, train-wreck opponent, or just random fluke?
- Indiana (13,13,12,12,12,12,10), This low in the rankings close losses are generally a good thing. We'll see how they do this week against . . .
- Rutgers (12,11,10,9,9,10,13), They have a potentially winnable home game this week!
- Northwestern (14,14,14,13,13,11,11), Honestly, 14th simply isn't low enough of a ranking for this team.
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I think it is legitimately a really close call between tOSU and Michigan for the top spot. Here are their results sorted by Sagrin ranking for their opponents:
(https://i.imgur.com/tnHTtXH.png)
Michigan's big win over Penn State stands out as easily the most impressive result by either team but their 13 and 7 point wins over Iowa and Maryland stand out the other way. Ohio State seems to be a bit more consistent with nothing really jumping off the page in a good or a bad way relative to Michigan.
As an Ohio State fan, Michigan looks scary to me. I don't mean scary just to lesser teams, I mean scary to the Buckeyes as well. When they are good, the Wolverines are REALLY good. Here are Indiana's second half possessions against the Wolverine defense:
- 7 plays, 26 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
- 6 plays, 23 yards, punt
- 3 plays, -9 yards, punt
- 3 plays, -11 yards, fumble
- 6 plays, 8 yards, downs
That would be impressive against an FCS opponent, it is REALLY good.
Here are Penn State's four possessions after they kicked a FG to take a second-half lead:
- 9 plays, 36 yards, downs (while down 24-17)
- 5 plays, 16 yards, punt (while down 31-17)
- 6 plays, 22 yards, downs (while down 34-17)
- 9 plays, 42 yards, downs (while down 41-17)
While their defense was doing that to the PSU offense, the Michigan offense scored on four straight drives (3 TD's, 1 FG) to turn a 17-16 PSU lead into a 41-17 Michigan blowout.
Like I said, when they are good they are REALLY good. That said, they also have a trend of letting inferior teams hang around. Indiana was tied at the half and within one score until midway through the final quarter. Penn State, despite getting statistically obliterated, was only down two at halftime and very briefly held a second half lead. Maryland was within four at the half and within one score for all but a few minutes. If they keep playing questionable first halves it is likely that one of the teams they should beat will knock them off and/or that Ohio State will build up such a massive lead that the Wolverines will be unable to catch up.
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I think it is legitimately a really close call between tOSU and Michigan for the top spot.
"NO WAY" Medina,The Leaders and the Best!!!
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flip OSU to #1 & Mich to #2 and that’s pretty much my list.
I treated this as your vote. His but with 1/2 flipped.
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. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Illinois
4. Penn State
5. Purdue
6. Maryland
7. Minnesota
8. Iowa
9. Wisconsin
10. Indiana
11. Nebraska
12. Michigan State
13. Rutgers
14. Northwestern
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I think it is legitimately a really close call between tOSU and Michigan for the top spot. Here are their results sorted by Sagrin ranking for their opponents:
(https://i.imgur.com/tnHTtXH.png)
Michigan's big win over Penn State stands out as easily the most impressive result by either team but their 13 and 7 point wins over Iowa and Maryland stand out the other way. Ohio State seems to be a bit more consistent with nothing really jumping off the page in a good or a bad way relative to Michigan.
As an Ohio State fan, Michigan looks scary to me. I don't mean scary just to lesser teams, I mean scary to the Buckeyes as well. When they are good, the Wolverines are REALLY good. Here are Indiana's second half possessions against the Wolverine defense:
- 7 plays, 26 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
- 6 plays, 23 yards, punt
- 3 plays, -9 yards, punt
- 3 plays, -11 yards, fumble
- 6 plays, 8 yards, downs
That would be impressive against an FCS opponent, it is REALLY good.
Here are Penn State's four possessions after they kicked a FG to take a second-half lead:
- 9 plays, 36 yards, downs (while down 24-17)
- 5 plays, 16 yards, punt (while down 31-17)
- 6 plays, 22 yards, downs (while down 34-17)
- 9 plays, 42 yards, downs (while down 41-17)
While their defense was doing that to the PSU offense, the Michigan offense scored on four straight drives (3 TD's, 1 FG) to turn a 17-16 PSU lead into a 41-17 Michigan blowout.
Like I said, when they are good they are REALLY good. That said, they also have a trend of letting inferior teams hang around. Indiana was tied at the half and within one score until midway through the final quarter. Penn State, despite getting statistically obliterated, was only down two at halftime and very briefly held a second half lead. Maryland was within four at the half and within one score for all but a few minutes. If they keep playing questionable first halves it is likely that one of the teams they should beat will knock them off and/or that Ohio State will build up such a massive lead that the Wolverines will be unable to catch up.
That’s why it’s called complimentary football. You will notice these drive stats you shared are all second half.
Either you believe UM players are in better physical condition or, you understand that brand of football. A close relative of Tresseball.
At least part of any teams ability to run the ball is directly correlated to their legitimate threat to pass. Teams with real balance on offense can hit you with either a run or pass on most downs. If their is no legitimate pass threat, it is much easier to stop the run. Unless….
your defense never gets a break because the offense keeps punting. Then they get worn down, and can’t stop the run even when they know it is coming. And, they start missing simple assignments and run fits.
This is what Michigan did to Penn State. PSU offense has not much of a downfield passing threat. Same with Iowa. Over the course of a game, it becomes easy for the opponent to stop your run, and excel in their own. Tressel was the master. Harbaugh is every bit as good- but notice the pull away is almost always later in the game.
It will be interesting- some of these upcoming matchups. How many teams in the conference can legitimately beat you with true passing games, or powerful running games, that keep you honest on defense.
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That’s why it’s called complimentary football. You will notice these drive stats you shared are all second half.
Either you believe UM players are in better physical condition or, you understand that brand of football. A close relative of Tresseball.
At least part of any teams ability to run the ball is directly correlated to their legitimate threat to pass. Teams with real balance on offense can hit you with either a run or pass on most downs. If their is no legitimate pass threat, it is much easier to stop the run. Unless….
your defense never gets a break because the offense keeps punting. Then they get worn down, and can’t stop the run even when they know it is coming. And, they start missing simple assignments and run fits.
This is what Michigan did to Penn State. PSU offense has not much of a downfield passing threat. Same with Iowa. Over the course of a game, it becomes easy for the opponent to stop your run, and excel in their own. Tressel was the master. Harbaugh is every bit as good- but notice the pull away is almost always later in the game.
It will be interesting- some of these upcoming matchups. How many teams in the conference can legitimately beat you with true passing games, or powerful running games, that keep you honest on defense.
The answer to your question is pretty much Ohio State and then a BIG dropoff. On ESPN's stats page for conferences they list the top five in each category then if you want to see the rest you have to click "complete leaders". Looking at the top passing and top rushing offenses in the B1G, tOSU is the only team that shows up on both lists (ie, is top-5 on both). The Buckeyes are #1 in passing, just ahead of Purdue and #2 in rushing behind Michigan. The rest of the top-5's are Purdue, UMD, NU, and IU at passing and M, MN, IL, and PSU at rushing.
In total offense:
- 543.7 tOSU: #1 passing, #2 rushing
- 473.6 M: #1 rushing, #9 passing
- 458.9 UMD: #3 passing, #8 rushing
- 446.6 PU: #2 passing, #10 rushing
- 442.7 MN: #3 rushing, #12 passing
There is a big dropoff between #5 MN and #6 UNL. At least so far only Ohio State is really good at both. Michigan is next but their passing game is a lot further behind tOSU's than tOSU's rushing game is behind M. That said, this isn't opponent adjusted but that probably doesn't matter. Michigan has played better league opponents so far but they played a horrible OOC so it probably is roughly a wash at least between those two.
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7. Minn - maybe this is not Minn's year afterall. Once potent offense has not been showing up in October.
I’m fully admitting the Gophers had me fooled after their road blowout of Michigan State. Minnesota was playing fantastic until Purdue deflated them after their Bye.
Additionally, Minnesota is currently ranked 1st nationally in Total Defense with 187.8 yds allowed per game, 14 yds fewer than the 2nd ranked team. The OL looks as big as anybody else. The QB/RB combination is as stable (though not as explosive) as anyone else’s. I’m picking the Gophers to win the West and roll to a 10-2, 11-1 type of season. Expecting a 6-0 Minnesota when on Oct 22 they visit Penn State, the highest and only ranked opponent left on their schedule. Of course November games Vs rivals Iowa and Wisconsin will decide the West at season’s end.
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- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- Wisconsin
- Indiana
- Rutgers
- Northwestern
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The answer to your question is pretty much Ohio State and then a BIG dropoff. On ESPN's stats page for conferences they list the top five in each category then if you want to see the rest you have to click "complete leaders". Looking at the top passing and top rushing offenses in the B1G, tOSU is the only team that shows up on both lists (ie, is top-5 on both). The Buckeyes are #1 in passing, just ahead of Purdue and #2 in rushing behind Michigan. The rest of the top-5's are Purdue, UMD, NU, and IU at passing and M, MN, IL, and PSU at rushing.
In total offense:
- 543.7 tOSU: #1 passing, #2 rushing
- 473.6 M: #1 rushing, #9 passing
- 458.9 UMD: #3 passing, #8 rushing
- 446.6 PU: #2 passing, #10 rushing
- 442.7 MN: #3 rushing, #12 passing
There is a big dropoff between #5 MN and #6 UNL. At least so far only Ohio State is really good at both. Michigan is next but their passing game is a lot further behind tOSU's than tOSU's rushing game is behind M. That said, this isn't opponent adjusted but that probably doesn't matter. Michigan has played better league opponents so far but they played a horrible OOC so it probably is roughly a wash at least between those two.
Honestly two major things are holding Michigan back from being #1 right now imo. Red zone offense and down field passing game. And those are two pretty major things. Their red zone offense is kinda mediocre right now- they aren't converting enough TD's at a high enough clip. Michigan/JJ has only attempted 20 deep passes (20+ yards in air distance)- which is 4th least in the B1G- and JJ is only completing 35% of those throws- which is yeah- pretty bad.
JJ however is the #1 QB in the B1G vs blitz with 79% completion against the blitz, he's also #1 in the B1G at throwing under pressure at 64% completion, he's also #1 in the B1G at throwing the ball on the intermediate routes (10-20 yards in air distance) at 73%- which is actually also #1 in all the P5, and he's also #1 in the B1G at throwing the ball on short throws (air distance of less than 10 yards) at 90%- which is also 1st in all of the P5.
Every other metric/stat on offense, defense, and special teams- Michigan is either elite or damn near. They have to figure out that red zone offense and start converting more red zone trips into TDs. Michigan is only 16th in red zone scoring % metric in the P5. Ohio State is...1st. Michigan also has got to start attempting more down field passes 20+ yards in air distance and actually connecting on them- 35% won't cut it- JJ and that offense needs to improve greatly in those two areas or they ain't even coming close to beating Ohio State.
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Hey, I need more voters.
Here is my (now) weekly objective ranking based on relative performance against each league opponent:
(https://i.imgur.com/cI7Btzz.png)
Explanation:
Each B1G team has played either three or four opponents. The opponents of each are ranked relative to each other. For the teams that have played four opponents, they are ranked 1, 2, 3, 4. For the teams that have played three opponents, they are ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5. This is based purely on scoring differential. Using the top two and bottom two as examples:
Against Ohio State:
- 1.5 MSU lost by 29
- 2.5 UW lost by 31
- 3.5 RU lost by 39
Against M:
- 1 UMD lost by 7
- 2 Iowa lost by 13
- 3 Indiana lost by 21
- 4 PSU lost by 24
Against Rutgers:
- 1.5 tOSU won by 39
- 2.5 Iowa won by 17
- 3.5 UNL won by 1
Against NU:
- 1.5 UW won by 35
- 2.5 PSU won by 10
- 3.5 UNL lost by 3
Ok, so the average rankings:
- 1.17 Ohio State
- 1.25 Michigan*
- 2.00 Purdue
- 2.17 Iowa
- 2.25 Maryland
- 2.50 Penn State
- 2.50 (tie) Illinois
- 2.75 Indiana
- 3.00 (tie) Minnesota
- 3.00 (tie) Wisconsin
- 3.00 (tie) Nebraska
- 3.00 (tie) Michigan State
- 3.17 Northwestern
- 3.33 Rutgers
*I really consider tOSU and M to be tied. They are both the best against each opponent they have faced. The difference in averages is because their opponents have faced different numbers of teams. Ohio State is first of four against UW and MSU and first of three against RU while M is first of four against UMD and IU and first of three against PSU and IA. This, of course, will change this weekend as the two teams will acquire their first common opponent. Ohio State will fare either better or worse than Michigan did against Iowa. Or, I suppose, Ohio State could beat Iowa by exactly 13 points in which case they'd be tied.
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Hey, I need more voters.
Here is my (now) weekly objective ranking based on relative performance against each league opponent:
(https://i.imgur.com/cI7Btzz.png)
Explanation:
Each B1G team has played either three or four opponents. The opponents of each are ranked relative to each other. For the teams that have played four opponents, they are ranked 1, 2, 3, 4. For the teams that have played three opponents, they are ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5. This is based purely on scoring differential. Using the top two and bottom two as examples:
Against Ohio State:
- 1.5 MSU lost by 29
- 2.5 UW lost by 31
- 3.5 RU lost by 39
Against M:
- 1 UMD lost by 7
- 2 Iowa lost by 13
- 3 Indiana lost by 21
- 4 PSU lost by 24
Against Rutgers:
- 1.5 tOSU won by 39
- 2.5 Iowa won by 17
- 3.5 UNL won by 1
Against NU:
- 1.5 UW won by 35
- 2.5 PSU won by 10
- 3.5 UNL lost by 3
Ok, so the average rankings:
- 1.17 Ohio State
- 1.25 Michigan*
- 2.00 Purdue
- 2.17 Iowa
- 2.25 Maryland
- 2.50 Penn State
- 2.50 (tie) Illinois
- 2.75 Indiana
- 3.00 (tie) Minnesota
- 3.00 (tie) Wisconsin
- 3.00 (tie) Nebraska
- 3.00 (tie) Michigan State
- 3.17 Northwestern
- 3.33 Rutgers
*I really consider tOSU and M to be tied. They are both the best against each opponent they have faced. The difference in averages is because their opponents have faced different numbers of teams. Ohio State is first of four against UW and MSU and first of three against RU while M is first of four against UMD and IU and first of three against PSU and IA. This, of course, will change this weekend as the two teams will acquire their first common opponent. Ohio State will fare either better or worse than Michigan did against Iowa. Or, I suppose, Ohio State could beat Iowa by exactly 13 points in which case they'd be tied.
I consider that one a 27-7 victory over Iowa. Iowa scored a garbage time touchdown when they were down 20 points with 8 seconds left in the game. Maryland kind of did the same thing- although that was a closer ball game and they were down 15 when they scored with 45 seconds left in the game. Neither of those games were as close as the final score indicated imo.
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I consider that one a 27-7 victory over Iowa. Iowa scored a garbage time touchdown when they were down 20 points with 8 seconds left in the game. Maryland kind of did the same thing- although that was a closer ball game and they were down 15 when they scored with 45 seconds left in the game. Neither of those games were as close as the final score indicated imo.
I get it but that doesn't only apply to Michigan. Other teams also gave up garbage time scores and when comparing teams I have to either eliminate the garbage time scores against all or none. I've chosen none so as to be completely objective and avoid arguments over what exactly constitutes "garbage time". For example, two of Wisconsin's three TD's against Ohio State came while Wisconsin was trailing by 38 points in the fourth quarter, do those count? For that matter Wisconsin's first TD came when they were already down 28-0.
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How good are Michigan's and Ohio State's rushing attacks generally and relative to one-another. Some data, here is a chart sorted by avg yards per opponent rushing attempt for B1G defenses:
(https://i.imgur.com/D9PoL7f.png)
Here is the same chart but with games against Ohio State and Michigan excluded:
(https://i.imgur.com/EPHxziW.png)
When you exclude games against the Buckeyes and Wolverines, Illinois who has played neither drops from first to third because the Buckeyes and Wolverines shredded Rutgers and Maryland respectively. Similarly:
- Iowa moves up from 5th to 4th because M.
- UW moves up from 8th to 5th because tOSU.
- PSU moves up from 12th to 7th because M.
How have the Buckeyes and Wolverines done against B1G rush defenses:
- 1.91 Rutgers: The Buckeyes shredded them for 252 yards and 5 TD's on 34 attempts at 7.41 per. This included a 70 yard run, the longest allowed by RU all year. Otherwise Rutgers has been stifling against the run allowing only 1.91 per attempt and only two non-tOSU TD's all year.
- 2.57 Maryland: The Wolverines shredded them for 243 yards and 2 TD's on 40 attempts at 6.08 per. This included a 47 yard run, the longest allowed by UMD all year. Otherwise Maryland has been stifling against the run allowing only 2.57 per attempt and only five non-M TS's all year.
- 2.77 Illinois: Ohio State will not play Illinois this year unless both make it to Indy, Michigan will play them the Saturday before Thanksgiving.
- 2.78 Iowa: Michigan did pretty well against them at 172 yards and 2 TD's on 42 attempts at 4.10 per. Those are the only Rushing TD's Iowa has allowed so far. Iowa was effective at preventing long runs. The longest they have allowed all year is only 23 (21 yards less than the next best) and Michigan's long was only 20.
- 2.87 Wisconsin: The Buckeyes shredded them for 258 yards and 2 TD's on 43 attempts at 6 per.
- 2.88 Michigan: The Wolverines obviously don't play themselves and they don't play tOSU until after Thanksgiving.
- 2.96 Penn State: The Wolverines shredded them for 418 yards and 4 TD's on 55 attempts at 7.60 per. This included a 67 yard run, the longest allowed by PSU all year.
- 2.97 Ohio State: The Buckeyes obviously don't play themselves and they don't play M until after Thanksgiving.
- 3.20 Purdue: Neither the Buckeyes nor the Wolverines will play Purdue this year unless Purdue makes it to Indy.
- 3.52 Indiana: Michigan was surprisingly unimpressive against the Hoosiers. I'll assume that was due to the Mike Hart seizure.
- 3.71 Minnesota: Minnesota will not play either this year unless they find a way to get to Indy.
- 3.77 Michigan State: Ohio State did pretty well against them at 237 yards and a TD on 46 attempts at 5.15 per.
- 4.38 Northwestern: The Wildcats do not play Michigan this year and will not play Ohio State until November.
- 4.90 Nebraska: The old Blackshirts these are not. The Cornhuskers do not play Ohio State this year and will not play Michigan until November.
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I get it but that doesn't only apply to Michigan. Other teams also gave up garbage time scores and when comparing teams I have to either eliminate the garbage time scores against all or none. I've chosen none so as to be completely objective and avoid arguments over what exactly constitutes "garbage time". For example, two of Wisconsin's three TD's against Ohio State came while Wisconsin was trailing by 38 points in the fourth quarter, do those count? For that matter Wisconsin's first TD came when they were already down 28-0.
Oh I hear you. I was specifically talking about scores with less than a minute left in a game when down double digits. To me those are just cheap meaningless TDs and the opposing coaches trying to make a bad loss look better. I'd almost have more resepect for coaches if they'd just kneel the ball and end the game in that situation. You lost the game. Why prolong the inevitable? Just kneel the ball, run clock, end the game and take the L like a man.
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I love how SP+ just filters out all of the garbage stats. Here's an article Conelly wrote about garbage time:
footballstudyhall.com/2017/10/20/16507348/college-football-analytics-game-states (http://footballstudyhall.com/2017/10/20/16507348/college-football-analytics-game-states)
He goes with:
- All first quarter plays count, no matter the score.
- Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 36 in the second quarter.
- Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 26 in the third quarter.
- Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 20 in the fourth quarter.
So you've got some work to do, medina. :)
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I love how SP+ just filters out all of the garbage stats. Here's an article Conelly wrote about garbage time:
footballstudyhall.com/2017/10/20/16507348/college-football-analytics-game-states (http://footballstudyhall.com/2017/10/20/16507348/college-football-analytics-game-states)
He goes with:
- All first quarter plays count, no matter the score.
- Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 36 in the second quarter.
- Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 26 in the third quarter.
- Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 20 in the fourth quarter.
So you've got some work to do, medina. :)
I don't like those garbage time metrics for any of those quarters. Everything in the 2nd and 3rd QTRs should count. Teams can come back from big deficits.
To me any scores in the last 2 minutes of a game when another team is up at least 2+ TDs should be considered garbage time or any scores when a team is up say 4+ TDs past the 12 min mark the 4th QTR of a game, and that's about it.
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I don't like those garbage time metrics for any of those quarters. Everything in the 2nd and 3rd QTRs should count. Teams can come back from big deficits.
To me any scores in the last 2 minutes of a game when another team is up at least 2+ TDs should be considered garbage time or any scores when a team is up say 4+ TDs past the 12 min mark the 4th QTR of a game, and that's about it.
And this is exactly why I don't delve into this. Everybody has a different definition and if you think about it, it varies by opponent. Iowa's offense is atrocious and everyone knows it. If your team has a 10 point lead in Iowa, that is five scores for the Hawkeyes! At that point, it is garbage time. Conversely, Ohio State probably has the best offense in the game. Would you feel comfortable if your team had a 20 point lead on the Buckeyes at halftime? You'd feel happy, but comfortable, I doubt it.
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And this is exactly why I don't delve into this. Everybody has a different definition and if you think about it, it varies by opponent. Iowa's offense is atrocious and everyone knows it. If your team has a 10 point lead in Iowa, that is five scores for the Hawkeyes! At that point, it is garbage time. Conversely, Ohio State probably has the best offense in the game. Would you feel comfortable if your team had a 20 point lead on the Buckeyes at halftime? You'd feel happy, but comfortable, I doubt it.
True lol. I'd never feel comfortable with any amount of lead over Ohio State til the game is over.
With regards to Michigan; Iowa scored down 20 with 8 seconds left in the game. Maryland scored down 15 with 43 seconds left in the game. Are those cheap meaningless garbage time scores in games that were already decided? I tend to think yes.
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True lol. I'd never feel comfortable with any amount of lead over Ohio State til the game is over.
With regards to Michigan; Iowa scored down 20 with 8 seconds left in the game. Maryland scored down 15 with 43 seconds left in the game. Are those cheap meaningless garbage time scores in games that were already decided? I tend to think yes.
Those obviously are but like I said I don't make that adjustment for ANY score because in order to declare those to be "garbage time" you need a consistent definition of "garbage time" and there are going to be differences of opinion and borderline cases so it is just a lot easier for me to go strictly by final MOV. I figure that if an individual wants to go through and say "yeah but Iowa and UMD scored on Michigan after the game was decided" that is up to them but with the understanding that if you are trying to do that to compare more favorably to Ohio State, the next poster can say "yeah but UW scored two of their three TD's in the fourth quarter while trailing by 38", etc.
I've always said that MOV is problematic so I definitely agree with that. My favorite example is two games that Ohio State won. One over Iowa in the mid-90's that tOSU won by 21 and one over PSU in the 00's that tOSU won by 22:
- In the mid-90's Iowa game the Buckeyes obliterated the Hawkeyes and, at one point, led 56-0. The Buckeyes' second-stringers, practice-team guys, cheerleaders, and mascots gave up 35 unanswered points such that the final score was 56-35 but the game was nowhere near that close.
- In the 00's PSU game the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions played a VERY hard-fought physical game where the difference came down to four red zone trips, two for each team. Ohio State punched both of theirs into the endzone while holding PSU to FG's on both of theirs resulting in an eight point 14-6 lead late in the fourth quarter for the Buckeyes. Upon reaching the point where he absolutely HAD to pass to have any chance of winning, Paterno unleashed his QB and PSU got a bit of a drive going. It looked like it might be close but then the PSU QB threw a Pick-6 which gave tOSU a 21-6 lead. After the ensuing kickoff, the PSU QB threw another pick-6 on the very next play resulting in a final score of 28-6 in a game that was MUCH closer than that.
If I were creating my own relatively simple computer model I think my solution would be this:
- I'd take the eventual winner's lead at the half (which could be a negative number of the ultimate leader was trailing at halftime). Then I'd add
- The eventual winner's lead at the end of the third quarter (again, could be negative). Then I'd add
- The final MOV.
The above would be subject to the following restrictions:
- If the sum was negative for the winner, the winner would be awarded a 1 point MOV.
- If the game went to OT, the winner would be awarded a 1 point MOV regardless of earlier scores and final outcome.
- The margins at the half, at the end of the third quarter, and at the end of the game would be capped at 28 points such that the maximum possible MOV would be 84 points (28+28+28), anything beyond that is just a blowout and I don't care how big it is beyond that.
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fair enough. I hear ya.
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Last week in parentheses
- MICHIGAN (3) - not sure I'd pick them over OSU, but it's close, and they have the better resume
- OHIO STATE (1) - bye week
- PENN STATE (2) - considered dropping them farther, but that would just be recentcy bias
- ILLINOIS (7) - they clearly look like the best team in the West now
- MARYLAND (5) - uglier than it should have been road win
- PURDUE (4) - uglier than it should have been home win
- IOWA (8) - bye week
- MINNESOTA (6) - all of the stars aligned for Fleck to finally reach a Big Ten title, and it doesn't look like it's going to happen
- MICHIGAN STATE (10) - defense got slightly healthier
- WISCONSIN (9) - Graham Mertz one week renaissance appears to just be a Northwestern thing
- NEBRASKA (11) - nearly pulled off a road upset
- INDIANA (12) - nearly pulled off a home upset
- RUTGERS (13) - bye week
- NORTHWESTERN (14) - bye week
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Composite computer rankings (84 rankings - last week in parenthesis)
- Georgia (1)
- Tennessee (5)
- OHIO STATE (3)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- Alabama (2)
- Clemson (4)
- Ole Miss (7)
- TCU (10)
- USC (8)
- Texas (13)
- UCLA (15)
- PENN STATE (9)
- Oklahoma State (12)
- Syracuse (21)
- Utah (19)
- Oregon (14)
- Kansas State (17)
- Wake Forest (16)
- ILLINOIS (20)
- Mississippi State (11)
- LSU (22)
- Central Florida (-)
- Kentucky (-)
- PURDUE (24)
- NC State (18)
- 27. Maryland (26)
- 32. Minnesota (32)
- 48. Iowa (52)
- 64. Wisconsin (54)
- 67. Michigan State (74)
- 72. Indiana (73)
- 85. Nebraska (86)
- 91. Rutgers (88)
- 118. Northwestern (115)
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I don't like those garbage time metrics for any of those quarters. Everything in the 2nd and 3rd QTRs should count. Teams can come back from big deficits.
To me any scores in the last 2 minutes of a game when another team is up at least 2+ TDs should be considered garbage time or any scores when a team is up say 4+ TDs past the 12 min mark the 4th QTR of a game, and that's about it.
I'd land a little more in the middle. Everything in the 1st quarter counts. Up 35+ in the 3rd, or 21+ in the 4th
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Results posted, votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , 12 voters.
- We have a tie for 1st/2nd with tOSU and M each getting six votes each for 1st and 2nd place.
- We have a tie for 3rd/4th with IL and PSU each getting six votes each for 3rd and 4th place.
I think that the next two weeks will do a lot to clear things up at least as between those top-4. Firstly as to tOSU and M:
- Ohio State plays Iowa this weekend and Michigan already played them so that will be our first common opponent.
- Next weekend tOSU plays PSU and M plays MSU which will be our second and third common opponents since M already played PSU and tOSU already played MSU.
- It is hard to compare right now because tOSU has the bigger wins (39, 31, and 29 points compared to 24, 21, 13, and 7) but Michigan has the better opponents (#3/4, #6, #8, and #12 compared to #9, #11, and #13). Over the next two weeks Michigan plays #11 while tOSU plays #8 and #3/4 so the resumes will be much more comparable two weeks from now.
Secondly as to IL and PSU:
- PSU has a very tricky potential trap game this weekend against Minnesota. The Gophers aren't great but they are definitely good enough to knock off PSU if the Nittany Lions come into this game too distracted by last week's blowout loss and next week's major challenge. Illinois already played Minnesota and beat them by 12 at home so, we'll see.
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OHIO STATE
MICHIGAN
PENN STATE
ILLINOIS
PURDUE
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Iowa
Nebraska
Indiana
Rutgers
Northwestern