| In most years, you beat Wisconsin and Iowa, you would be in the clear in the West. Problem is this year (1) Wisconsin and Iowa aren't that good; (2) Minnesota and Purdue find themselves in the discussion; and (3) you lost your opener at Indiana. But to show you how rare that feat is for the Illini, their Rose Bowl team couldn't do it, their 1990 Big Ten title team couldn't do it. They lost in Iowa City. The last time they did it was 1989. In fairness, the 2001 Big Ten title team didn't play Iowa, but still. While this week is an 11 AM local kickoff, rather than prime time, you could still argue this is the biggest game the Illini have played since 2011, when a 6-0 Illinois team welcomed Ohio State. Illinois lost, and it kicked off a 6 game losing streak. That was the last time Illinois found themselves ranked. That team needed to outscore their opponents. This Illini team is built exactly the opposite. Indiana somehow scored 23 points on them, but they have allowed 5.0 ppg otherwise, with Wisconsin's 10 being the high. The Illini are 3rd in the nation in run defense per game, and 4th per play, but they've gotten better as the season has rolled on. Over their past three games, which includes their two toughest opponents, they lead the nation, comfortably, in both statistics. Minnesota's loss to Purdue happened in a game when they couldn't run the ball, or stop the run. Purdue's run defense isn't in the same area code as Illinois' and Purdue has consistently had the conference's worst run game since Brohm arrived. Yet the Boilermakers held Minnesota to 47 yards on 1.8 ypc, while running for 5.9 ypc themselves. Tanner Morgan also showed that he is who we thought he was, when not facing Michigan State's secondary. If Illinois controls the run game, on both sides of the ball, as well as Purdue did, and I suspect they will do so even more convincingly, then that's the kind of fight I trust the Illini more in. |