CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 29, 2022, 05:01:37 PM
-
Last fall @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) started pushing his theory that you simply couldn't win big in CFB anymore by relying on a stout D. In today's game, he argued, you need a powerful offense.
I've come around to agreeing but I'm a data guy so I wanted some numbers to back it up.
I was thinking about it in relation to The Game and last year the Buckeyes scored 27 points in a two-score (barely) loss. I think that Michigan's defense was really good last year and I think that 20+ years ago a team with a D like that probably wins The Game something like 14-9 (tOSU in 2002) or 20-14 (M in 1997).
Not anymore: Ohio State gained 450+ yards and put up 27 points against that defense.
The thing is, the loser scoring 27+ isn't even unusual anymore. The last three losers of The Game scored at least 27 and in fact seven of the last 10 losers scored at least 27 points:
- 41 by M in a 1 point loss in 2013
- 39 by M in a 23 point loss in 2018
- 34 by tOSU in a 6 point loss in 2011
- 28 by M in a 14 point loss in 2014
- 27 by M in a 3 point loss in 2016
- 27 by tOSU in a 15 point loss in 2021
- 27 by M in a 29 point loss in 2019
Allow me to provide some perspective: In the 19 years that Bo Schembechler coached against Woody Hayes and Earle Bruce (1969-1987) the WINNING team never scored more than 27 points.
In other words, an amount of points (27) that was enough to pretty much guarantee a win back then is a typical losing score today.
Another perspective: In 1996 the Wolverines won 13-9 (I remember it well, I was in the tOSU student section). In the 25 years leading up to that (1972-1996) the scores were:
Winner:
- 20 points average
- 34 points most
- 9 points least
Loser:
- 12 points average
- 31 points most
- 0 points least
In the 25 years since (1997-2021):
Winner:
- 34 points average
- 62 points most
- 14 points least
Loser:
- 22 points average
- 41 points most
- 3 points least
So, in the last 25 years the loser of The Game has averaged more points than the winner averaged in the preceeding 25 years.
-
The networks Have shown a lot of data over the last couple seasons which support this theory, for college football in general. Now more than ever the rules favor the offense. The data clearly support that.
In coach speak they call it “complementary football“.
You can no longer expect to be a champion if you have a fantastic offense but a horrible defense, or, a fantastic defense but a horrible offense. As some teams have shown, if you are really good on one side of the ball you need to at least be decent on the other.
-
great post.
the GOAT college football coach- Nick Saban- said himself you can't stop anybody anymore these days. If THAT GUY changed his entire philosophy from "we're gonna play shutdown D, have a game manager QB and run the ball!" to "let's get that 5* STUD QB ie Tua/Bryce Young and a roster full of NFL WR's and air it out" - well says all you really need to know. And Kudos to Saban for changing on the fly. Lot of 60-70 year old coaches that are set in their ways and do things a certain way wouldn't change up on the fly and evolve with the times so rapidly like that. He did. Just show you how great he truly is.
-
great post.
the GOAT college football coach- Nick Saban- said himself you can't stop anybody anymore these days. If THAT GUY changed his entire philosophy from "we're gonna play shutdown D, have a game manager QB and run the ball!" to "let's get that 5* STUD QB ie Tua/Bryce Young and a roster full of NFL WR's and air it out" - well says all you really need to know. And Kudos to Saban for changing on the fly. Lot of 60-70 year old coaches that are set in their ways and do things a certain way wouldn't change up on the fly and evolve with the times so rapidly like that. He did. Just show you how great he truly is.
I feel like you're referring to Ferentz as a coach set in his ways here.
-
Yeah, the fact that Saban was winning NCs and still changed his philosophy is all you need to know.
-
I feel like you're referring to Ferentz as a coach set in his ways here.
was more referring to Harbaugh who is still set in his ways thinking he can win with his 1990s offense and 3 TE sets. Dude took DPJ- maybe the best WR recruit the state of Michigan has EVER produced and turned him into an after thought and 6th rd draft pick. Urbs said himself DPJ was one of the best recruits at WR he's ever recruited and should've been a 1st rd pick.
Booger Eater's offense is stuck in 1997. Ferentz' offense is stuck in the 1940s.
-
Yeah, the fact that Saban was winning NCs and still changed his philosophy is all you need to know.
Yep. Shows you how ELITE Saban is. Most coaches can't evolve on the fly. And you either evolve or you die.
-
It was evidence that he wasn't comparing himself to anyone else, but putting it on himself to improve, regardless of who he was competing with.
-
yup, losing in a blowout sucks and the fans hate it, but with today's offenses, it's just gonna happen once in a while
even to good teams with good coaching staffs
-
It was evidence that he wasn't comparing himself to anyone else, but putting it on himself to improve, regardless of who he was competing with.
that's what the truly great ones do. they compete with themselves.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=xQ4cy7sczSg?feature=share
-
I'm going to try that with my principle on my next performance review....
-
Agree w all of this.
-
There are often exceptions in trends of course.
-
The networks Have shown a lot of data over the last couple seasons which support this theory, for college football in general. Now more than ever the rules favor the offense. The data clearly support that.
In coach speak they call it “complementary football“.
You can no longer expect to be a champion if you have a fantastic offense but a horrible defense, or, a fantastic defense but a horrible offense. As some teams have shown, if you are really good on one side of the ball you need to at least be decent on the other.
I agree with all of this and I think your point about the rules favoring the offense is a big factor. Years ago I think the refs tended do give defenders a couple steps to the qb after release. Now they have to pull up sometimes before he releases or their momentum will carry them into him after and they'll get dinged for it.
PI is another one. You almost never see offensive PI called but it happens and I feel that defenders have a lot less freedom to hand-check than they used to.
-
I agree with @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) and @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) , it really is a credit to Saban that he managed to evolve. Early Saban at Bama was more-or-less Tresselball on steroids. Now, his teams are very different.
-
It will be interesting to see how Smart "evolves" ...
What is the last team to win an NC with a mediocre defense and awesome offense?
-
i'll rebuff some on saban being a "3 yrds and cloud of dust" guy. he always liked to pass.
but first, no doubt he changed philosophy. at least some. and the one to really convince him was kiffin. after first season with saban, we had lost our "game manager qb", and had no obvious replacement. kiffin came to saban and said we can go with a freshman that's our typical style, or let me take this rb that was a qb in hs, and run a wide open style offense. saban let him put together a plan, and went with it.
but saban was never against a high powered offense. his offenses were always pretty potent in the air, he just let off gas to close out games. but his qb's hold records at both bama and lsu. 3 of top 5 single season pass yds and tds are his qbs at lsu. at bama, ALL of the top 10 for pass yrds and tds are his qbs. and it includes aj mccarron, greg mcelroy, and john parker wilson, so its not just the recent qb's.
if you go back and look at situational stats, in 1st qtr and 1st half, he often threw as much or more than running. but he usually had enough of a lead in the 2nd half to just run and milk clock. which threw off his game stats and tainted the view of his philosophy. his average r/p ratio was something like 65/35, but when game was in doubt, he always liked to throw and it was much closer to 50/50. higher some years.
the change was in set up. he'd typically run to set up pass. now he just passes, and runs when he wants. he's also a master at utilizing "loopholes" in the rules. even when he doesn't like them. the rpo, lineman down field thing is a great example. he railed on it when it first came into game. said he doesn't think it's good for game, etc. people said he was just whining. well, he went out and ran one of the best rpo offenses cfb has had. that's one of his best qualities, imo.
-
It will be interesting to see how Smart "evolves" ...
What is the last team to win an NC with a mediocre defense and awesome offense?
2010 auburn? their scoring d was ranked 53, and total d was 60th.
2019 lsu? scoring d and total d were 31st, though by season end they were playing very good d.
-
Auburn sounds about right, I think, though they didn't really have an awesome offense I think.
I still think the obvious, a really good defense is important at the elite level, but you need both, and STs. A team that wins regular season games by say 49-35 is not likely to win the NC IMHO.
-
so, the Big 12 and PAC are out?
-
Oklahoma had a great offense a few years back but a pretty weak defense. They got up on UGA 31-14 just before the half and lost. I don't think this is a good recipe against elite teams. You need at least a pretty good BBDB kind of defense coupled with a great offense, or a really great defense and better than average offense.
-
2019 lsu? scoring d and total d were 31st, though by season end they were playing very good d.
IMHO, it is hard to rank 2019 LSU because they more-or-less came out if nowhere, improved a LOT more than average during the season, and were unbelievable by December/January. I guess I'll try to explain it this way, here is what I think would have happened if tOSU had played LSU in 2019:
- August/September: Buckeyes blowout Tigers
- October: Buckeyes win competitive game.
- November: toss up
- December: Tigers win competitive game
- January: Tigers blowout Buckeyes
-
Auburn sounds about right, I think, though they didn't really have an awesome offense I think.
I still think the obvious, a really good defense is important at the elite level, but you need both, and STs. A team that wins regular season games by say 49-35 is not likely to win the NC IMHO.
the 2010 au offense was ranked 7th in both scoring off and total off. i'd call that elite, for that season at least.
Oklahoma had a great offense a few years back but a pretty weak defense. They got up on UGA 31-14 just before the half and lost. I don't think this is a good recipe against elite teams. You need at least a pretty good BBDB kind of defense coupled with a great offense, or a really great defense and better than average offense.
that ou defense was ranked 68 in scoring, 67 in total d.
IMHO, it is hard to rank 2019 LSU because they more-or-less came out if nowhere, improved a LOT more than average during the season, and were unbelievable by December/January. I guess I'll try to explain it this way, here is what I think would have happened if tOSU had played LSU in 2019:
- August/September: Buckeyes blowout Tigers
- October: Buckeyes win competitive game.
- November: toss up
- December: Tigers win competitive game
- January: Tigers blowout Buckeyes
agreed. early on i think there were several teams that beat them fairly comfortably. but by title game, not sure any could even on a good day.
-
great post.
the GOAT college football coach- Nick Saban- said himself you can't stop anybody anymore these days. If THAT GUY changed his entire philosophy from "we're gonna play shutdown D, have a game manager QB and run the ball!" to "let's get that 5* STUD QB ie Tua/Bryce Young and a roster full of NFL WR's and air it out" - well says all you really need to know. And Kudos to Saban for changing on the fly. Lot of 60-70 year old coaches that are set in their ways and do things a certain way wouldn't change up on the fly and evolve with the times so rapidly like that. He did. Just show you how great he truly is.
I'm super fascinated by how "game managers" have evolved with offenses.
Like, you used to be able to grind a game to dust, and even if winning 21-3 wasn't the best way to do things, people just did. But you had spreads grow more consistent, evolve to be more multiple and employ better talent. Plus the spread augmented the run game to a degree.
So we're now six champions removed from the last true game manager type QB to win a Natty (Jacob Coker). What you have now are more interesting. You have guys with seemingly lower ceilings but often higher processing power. The scheme does a lot of thinking for you, and then you put in a smart guy whose job is to distribute the ball.
Stetson Bennett was mobile for a "game manager" but that's mostly what he was (he's taken a big step this year). Mac Jones is intersting because he's far from a five-star stud. He was just a really good distributor who might be a bit more, but you put him in charge of a super charged offense, and it'll really go. Both are far more managers than a John Navarre or Chad Henne (lord knows why those two came to mind), but they're also running much, much better and smoother attacks.
You now have schemes that in some ways can be more things, and whereas in the past teams would major in something just because, now you don't have to. UGA last year was a pretty good but not earth shattering passing team. They were a good, but not unreal running team. You look at their stats, and no one leaps off the page, except that they finish top-5 in per drive scoring.
-
It will be interesting to see how Smart "evolves" ...
What is the last team to win an NC with a mediocre defense and awesome offense?
2019 LSU
2014 OSU
2010 Auburn
-
i'll rebuff some on saban being a "3 yrds and cloud of dust" guy. he always liked to pass.
but first, no doubt he changed philosophy. at least some. and the one to really convince him was kiffin. after first season with saban, we had lost our "game manager qb", and had no obvious replacement. kiffin came to saban and said we can go with a freshman that's our typical style, or let me take this rb that was a qb in hs, and run a wide open style offense. saban let him put together a plan, and went with it.
but saban was never against a high powered offense. his offenses were always pretty potent in the air, he just let off gas to close out games. but his qb's hold records at both bama and lsu. 3 of top 5 single season pass yds and tds are his qbs at lsu. at bama, ALL of the top 10 for pass yrds and tds are his qbs. and it includes aj mccarron, greg mcelroy, and john parker wilson, so its not just the recent qb's.
Yeah, I'm no Alabama fan, but I really disagree here.
Saban was obsessed with having a risk-avoidance offense when he knew his defense was only allowing 10 points a game.
.
When it comes to his Alabama teams passing more often, pre-Tua, it's because those teams weren't as good. If there's one certainty I've found in seeing the pass-run ratios of almost 2,000 college football teams, it's that shitty teams pass more and really good teams run more. That's why you have to toss out the idea of a 50/50 ratio being a balanced offense. That's a very pass-happy offense.
.
Here's Saban's record, points per game, pass/run ratio, and QB at Alabama:
2007: 7-6...27...49/51...Wilson
2008: 12-2...30...37/63...Wilson....why pass less with an experienced QB? Because you're not behind a lot like you were last year.
2009: 14-0...32....37/63...McElroy
2010: 10-3...36....44/56...McElroy...same here - worse team passes more
2011: 12-1....35....41/59...McCarron
2012: 13-1....39....37/63...McCarron
2013: 11-2....38....44/56...McCarron
2014: 12-2....37....44/56....Sims
2015: 14-1....35....41/59....Coker.....better team, less passing.....it's a fact
2016: 14-1....39....39/61....Hurts
2017: 13-1....37....35/65....Hurts
2018: 14-1....46....43/57....Tua
2019: 11-2....47....48/52....Tua
2020: 13-0....49....47/53....Jones
2021: 13-2....40....51/49....Young....again, the same
.
What I see here is more passing when he had 2+ losses and less passing when it was an undefeated or 1-loss season, except for 2017-2018. What makes that offseason different or special? Special arm talent. THAT is what finally got Saban to reluctantly start passing first. The Kiffin years (2014-2016) doesn't show anything revealing. I do assume Kiffin's ideas and suggestions may have played a role, but without any elite arm talent in his seasons, Saban didn't cave in until Tua's talent made him.
.
The past 3 years, Alabama has passed more than they previously had. The only exception was 2007 when they stunk - and stinky teams are often playing catch-up. A truly balanced team passes about 42-43% of the time. If you want to say anything, it's that Saban valued a balanced offense in the past, which is what most every OC strives for in a perfect world. But I don't think there's any universe in which Saban is willing to throw the ball 48-50% with a great team if the QB is a Jake Coker or Jalen Hurts. On a shitty team? The sky is the limit, lol...but he doesn't have to worry about that.
.
And as for all of Alabama's top historical QBs being Saban QBs.....frankly, Alabama's passing history is crap salad. Their career leader in TD passes pre-Saban had 41 (Croyle). Pre-2007, the leader at OSU had 57. At Florida, 114. At USC, 99. Auburn, 54. Alabama has traditionally had the better team, including the better line play, and would run people over because they could.
That's why their top all-time statistical QBs have been under Saban.
-
I figure a run heavy elite team might be so because they lead 37-3 in the 3rd quarter.
They might also appear vulnerable through the air.
I bet if one looked at the R:P ratio by quarter, you might see it change as said elite team gets into the 4th.
-
Yes, that's built-in to the "good teams run more and bad teams pass more" statement.
-
UGA this season is at 133 rushing and 146 passing. I view it as a concern that they aren't running the ball very efffectively when it counts. I'm sure defenses are trying to stop the run of course, and they often are.