CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 24, 2022, 10:15:51 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-3-30300/).
Votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , 15 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/QUKC635.png)
Drop the high and low for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/JmmFeCj.png)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/7soG5ly.png)
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Minnesota
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Illinois
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Rutgers
- Purdue
- Michigan State
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
There seems to be a big drop-off after #1, and after #4.
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Penn State
- Maryland
- Wisconsin
- Illinois
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Iowa
- Indiana
- Rutgers
- Nebraska
- Northwestern
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Minnesota
4. Penn State
5. Maryland
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Iowa
9. Illinois
10. Rutgers
11. Indiana
12. Michigan State
13. Northwestern
14. Nebraska
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1. OSU - Absolutely destroys Wisconsin
2. Mich - holds off MD in first real test
3. Minn - dominates MSU. Minn is looking good on both offense and defense
4. PSU - solid but unimpressive victory over MAC team this week but still has some impressive wins over Auburn, Purd earlier.
Now I am stuck. #5 to #12 seem very fluid to me. Nobody really deserves to be as high as #5 or even #6
5. MD - this may be too high but MD seems to be better this year.
6. Iowa. - defense and special teams rescue Iowa again. This seems too high but Iowa just seems to find ways to win games that they shouldn't.
7. Wisc - this seems too high but not going to drop them too far.
8. MSU - based on last 2 weeks, MSU should be lower but I expect MSU to play better.
9. Purd - maybe it's time to concede that Purdue's defense is not great and Jeff Brahm's use of clock does not help the defense.
10. ILL - one last minute drive from being undefeated yet still not convinced they are good. Next game against Wisc will be a good test.
11. Ind - not sure what to make of this team.
12. Rut - you have to beat Iowa by winning the turnover battle.
13. NW - ugh. Usually this time of year is when NW magicly gets better. What is going on? Losing to FCS and MAC teams. Team is just looking awful.
14. Neb - it becomes a bigger mystery each week how this team lost to NW
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- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Maryland
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Indiana
- Illinois
- Rutgers
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
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14. Neb - it becomes a bigger mystery each week how this team lost to NW
just lucky!
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13/14 are interchangeable in my mind. The reasons I moved NW to 14 is because they've now lost to an FCS and a (middling) G5 team....right after losing to Duke. Also....getting rid of Frost was addition by subtraction.
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1. Ohio State
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2. Minnesota (so there!!)
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Maryland
6. Iowa
7. Wisconsin
8. Rutgers
9. Michigan State
10. Indiana
11. Illinois
12. Purdue
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.
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13. Nebraska
14. Northwestern
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- Ohio State
- Minnesota
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Rutgers
- Nebraska
- Northwestern
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1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
3) Penn State
4) Minnesota
5) Iowa
6) Maryland
7) Wisconsin
8) Illinois
9) Purdue
10) Michigan State
11) Rutgers
12) Indiana
13) Northwestern
14) Nebraska
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1. Ohio State
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2. Minnesota (so there!!)
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Maryland
6. Iowa
7. Wisconsin
8. Rutgers
9. Michigan State
10. Indiana
11. Illinois
12. Purdue
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13. Nebraska
14. Northwestern
This is a good ranking. Michigan needed to drop, Minnesota higher and Maryland is going to give some team some fits if Taulia is healthy. And no one is close to OsU.
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This is a good ranking. Michigan needed to drop, Minnesota higher and Maryland is going to give some team some fits if Taulia is healthy. And no one is close to OsU.
I mostly agree but I'm always leery of putting too much stock in one week's results.
Michigan didn't look as good as I expected but maybe Maryland is better than we thought. Alternatively maybe Maryland just played the game of their lives or Michigan had an off day, those things happen.
Minnesota definitely impressed but same as above just sub Minnesota for Michigan and MSU for Maryland.
Ohio State looked great but again, same as above just sub tOSU for Maryland and Wisconsin for Michigan.
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I'd feel better about UW's chances against OSU if UW had Yoda.
But they do not, and OSU is this:
(https://i.imgur.com/veYm3Ye.png)
While UW is this:
(https://i.imgur.com/8B9azLa.png)
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I mostly agree but I'm always leery of putting too much stock in one week's results.
Michigan didn't look as good as I expected but maybe Maryland is better than we thought. Alternatively maybe Maryland just played the game of their lives or Michigan had an off day, those things happen.
Minnesota definitely impressed but same as above just sub Minnesota for Michigan and MSU for Maryland.
Ohio State looked great but again, same as above just sub tOSU for Maryland and Wisconsin for Michigan.
Right on point. We as fans tend to overreact to one game. OSU showed what they are capable of but Michigan did before yesterday and will again.
I am not voting in this poll but my top end would look like:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Minnesota
next team.
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Nebraska football will return from its bye week as a slight favorite over visiting Indiana, according to early lines from online oddsmakers.
Circa Sports released its early lines on Sunday, and the Huskers are two-point favorites over the visiting Hoosiers. The teams are set for a 6:30 p.m. kick on Saturday that will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.
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I'll keep Minnesota #4, while still confident they haven't played anyboy
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1)tOSU,Stroud looked very sharp
2)Wolverines wavering- going on the road against Iowa "D" next saturday
3)Penn State
4)Gophs
5)Iowa showing some signs of life
6)Maryland,lost a close game on the road,injured QB
7)Illini - one,3pt loss on the road
8)UW,injuries and a tough road loss
9)Spartans,Injured&brutalized facing a must win vs Maryland
10)Rutgers 3-1 headed to C-Bus and hoping for rain
11)Hoosiers 3-1 after a tough road loss to the Bearcats
12)Boilers 2-2,won w/o O'Connell
13)UNL
14)Wildcats
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Minnesota
4. Penn State
5. Maryland
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Iowa
9. Illinois
10. Michigan State
11. Rutgers
12. Indiana
13. Northwestern
14. Nebraska
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I love the new phrase "September Maryland." LOL, fits so far in our B1G tenure...
edited to add that I don't like that it's accurate, I just think it's clever.
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I love the new phrase "September Maryland." LOL, fits so far in our B1G tenure...
I think you'll get an October win next weekend
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In re PSU:
I moved them to #1 last week because I thought their wins, particularly the road wins over Purdue and Auburn were much better than anything tOSU or M had.
I think I should have waited a week because, as I see it, PSU took three big hits this week:
- They let a BAD MAC team hang around WAY too long.
- Purdue barely surviving perennial doormat FAU severely diminished PSU's win over PU. Back when that game was played I thought PU was a dark-horse B1GCG Contender. Now I an of the opinion that the only thing Purdue is in contention for is a bowl bid.
- Auburn needing OT and multiple miracles to beat a terrible Mizzou team severely diminished PSU's win over Auburn.
Now I think that if you ranked the quality of the wins by tOSU, PSU, and M, the Buckeyes' wins over UW and ND are the best two with PSU's win over Auburn a distant third.
To me, that makes tOSU a pretty clear #1 and moves PSU from close with tOSU for #1/2 to close with M for #2/3.
Then there is Minnesota. Prior to this weekend they felt like Michigan lite. Both the Gophers and Wolverines had played nothing but horrible opponents and it seemed like Michigan was handling theirs a little more dominantly than Minnesota. This weekend both of them got much tougher opponents and while Michigan struggled MUCH more than I expected, the Gophers REALLY impressed me. Maybe MSU isn't all that good, but the Gophers made them look like an FCS team and a bad FCS team at that.
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I love the new phrase "September Maryland." LOL, fits so far in our B1G tenure...
I'm a lot happier with that than with what Northwestern usually does.
Maryland looks great OOC then folds in league play and that makes our league look spectacular!
Northwestern typically looks like trash OOC then contends for or wins the B1G-W which makes our league look awful.
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Northwestern typically looks like trash OOC then contends for or wins the B1G-W which makes our league look awful.
Yeah, don't write off the "even numbered year" Wildcats just yet. Lol.
They are still 1-0 in Conference/Division.
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Then there is Minnesota. Prior to this weekend they felt like Michigan lite. Both the Gophers and Wolverines had played nothing but horrible opponents and it seemed like Michigan was handling theirs a little more dominantly than Minnesota. This weekend both of them got much tougher opponents and while Michigan struggled MUCH more than I expected, the Gophers REALLY impressed me. Me too. Maybe MSU isn't all that good MSU isn't very good, but the Gophers made them look like an FCS team and a bad FCS team at that (So true).
I struggled with where to slot the Gophers. So I went with my incremental approach to put them in 4th and retain the Big 3 from the East in their usual positions. The Big 3 East teams will start to defeat each other (except Ohio State will defeat the others), and if Minnesota continues winning, they could rise to 2nd in the power rankings.
Minnesota has a weak Eastern Division schedule of MSU, Penn State, and Rutgers. The Goophs could be on course to win the Western Division.
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1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Michigan
4) Minnesota
5) Maryland
6) Wisconsin
7) Illinois
8) Iowa
9) Purdue
10) Indiana
11) Michigan State
12) Rutgers
13) Nebraska
14) Northwestern
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- Ohio State - Not sure what to make of this game. I believe that UW is a better team than they show'ed Sat.
- Michigan - Finally played a team with a pulse. Maryland moved the ball on the ground better than I thought they could.
- Minnesota - Impressive win at MSU. MSU was never in this game.
- Penn State - To close of a call with a directional Mich school. And as Medina says, their good wins are not looking that impressive now.
- Maryland - Keeping them above Wisconsin for the moment. They moved the ball well against the Wolverines and their D played pretty well most of the game, but gave up a couple of big plays.
- Wisconsin - They need to not even watch the game film and move on. Put that game in the rear view mirror and play out the rest of the season.
- Iowa - Hopefully, this will kick start their offense. The Defense is special.
- Illinois - Did what they had to do against Chatt.
- Rutgers - Not sure what to make of them so far. However, I believe they should beat the teams listed below them.
- Purdue - Did they play with the back up QB? Letting FL Atlantic hang around that long does not give me confidence that they deserve a higher ranking.
- Michigan State - They looked terrible.
- Indiana - They looked even worse.
- Nebraska - Moving up after a bye week.
- Northwestern - It looks like they already quit.
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@SuperMario (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1596) , was your agreement with @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) a "ditto" vote?
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I am not voting in this poll but my top end would look like:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Minnesota
Interesting. I'm curious why you have Minnesota a clear step behind the other three. Their best win (at MSU) is EASILY better than Michigan's and also better than PSU's.
Michigan and Minnesota each have three blowout wins against ridiculously awful opponents. The difference, as I see it, favors Minnesota. When these two ran into an opponent with a pulse the Gophers demolished MSU on the road while the Wolverines won a close game over Maryland.
Penn State is difficult to compare to those two because it is an apples/oranges thing. PSU's opponents haven't been as bad but their wins haven't been as big.
Also, I and literally everyone else who voted so far see tOSU as #1 with several commenting that it is a BIG gap between #1 and everyone else.
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Moved Sparty to #12 this morning.
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Interesting. I'm curious why you have Minnesota a clear step behind the other three. Their best win (at MSU) is EASILY better than Michigan's and also better than PSU's.
Michigan and Minnesota each have three blowout wins against ridiculously awful opponents. The difference, as I see it, favors Minnesota. When these two ran into an opponent with a pulse the Gophers demolished MSU on the road while the Wolverines won a close game over Maryland.
Penn State is difficult to compare to those two because it is an apples/oranges thing. PSU's opponents haven't been as bad but their wins haven't been as big.
Also, I and literally everyone else who voted so far see tOSU as #1 with several commenting that it is a BIG gap between #1 and everyone else.
Everyone has a top 4 with OSU, UM, PSU and Minny, in some order. I agree. I would just put Minny 4th, but not far behind at all. It is after 4th where I see a gap.
if these teams were playing each other on a neutral field this Saturday, and I had to bet $10 on the games ( and I wouldn’t bet any more tha that) I would flip a coin on OSU, UM and PSU. And begrudgingly pick those 3 over the gophers. And I could be totally wrong.
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Moved Sparty to #12 this morning.
Got it.
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Everyone has a top 4 with OSU, UM, PSU and Minny, in some order. I agree. I would just put Minny 4th, but not far behind at all. It is after 4th where I see a gap.
if these teams were playing each other on a neutral field this Saturday, and I had to bet $10 on the games ( and I wouldn’t bet any more tha that) I would flip a coin on OSU, UM and PSU. And begrudgingly pick those 3 over the gophers. And I could be totally wrong.
Kind of where I’m at but remove OSU. I think OSU a good deal above the other 3. I think M-PSU-Minny all kinda in the same group- and a good notch below OSU.
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Moved Sparty to #12 this morning.
Why?
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Why?
Cause they suck is probably my guess.
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Everyone has a top 4 with OSU, UM, PSU and Minny, in some order.
I'm obviously accustomed to you being overly hesitant to rank tOSU #1 so I was more curious why you made such a distinction between Minnesota and the others.
I think that your statement here is somewhat misleading because it makes it sound like the order is up in the air for all four and it isn't. There are 12 votes so far:
- All 12 votes for tOSU.
- Eight votes for M, two each for PSU/MN.
- Two votes for M, five each for PSU/MN.
- Two votes for M, five each for PSU/MN.
Yes, there is dispute about the order but only AFTER #1 and there is only significant disagreement after #2. All voters agree that tOSU is #1 and most agree that M is #2 then the order for 3/4 is very much up in the air as PSU and MN are currently exactly tied.
Also, Sagrin for another unbiased view has:
- #2 nationally, tOSU, 95.00
- #5 nationally, M, 85.24
- #9 nationally, PSU, 84.82
- #10 nationally, MN, 81.16
Note that the gap between tOSU and M (9.76) is more than twice as large as the gap between M and MN (4.08). Thus, Sagrin's rankings also indicate that there is a LARGE gap between tOSU and the other three and only a very small difference amongst the other three.
Last week I had PSU at #1 because I *THOUGHT* that their road wins over Purdue and Auburn were more impressive than anything that tOSU, M, or MN had. As I noted upthread, PSU took some hits this weekend. On top of that, tOSU picked up a win better than anything that any of the others have and Minnesota picked up a VERY nice win as well.
Here are the 16 wins by those four teams ranked by current opponent Sagrin ranking:
(https://i.imgur.com/UnGmIYx.png)
Then I rearranged that by what I think is the "strength" of the win. I'm taking opponent quality, location of game, and MOV into account to come up with this and it is admittedly somewhat subjective:
(https://i.imgur.com/g3OjDkj.png)
Ohio State clearly stands out here because:
- They have the best win and two of the best three, and
- All four of their wins are in the top half of this group
The rest are harder to differentiate.
- Minnesota's win at MSU is great but their other three wins were against dreadfully bad opponents.
- Penn State has two decent wins but both have faded somewhat from what I initially thought they were and letting directional-Michigan hang around was a bad look.
- Michigan stands out in a negative way because the one time they faced an opponent with a pulse they struggled and their other three opponents were as bad as Minnesota's.
I'm still working on my ranking. Obviously I'll have tOSU at #1 just like Sagrin, the AP voters, the Coaches, every voter so far here, and everyone else who has an ability to view this in a reasonably neutral way. After that, performance says MN->PSU->M but that is the exact opposite of what I expect based on rosters so I'm trying to determine, at this point in the season, how much of this should be roster-based and how much should be performance-to-date based.
It is after 4th where I see a gap.
I think everyone agrees that there is a big gap after #4 because the other 10 teams each have at least one loss and most of those losses aren't even arguably "quality losses".
if these teams were playing each other on a neutral field this Saturday, and I had to bet $10 on the games ( and I wouldn’t bet any more tha that) I would flip a coin on OSU, UM and PSU. And begrudgingly pick those 3 over the gophers. And I could be totally wrong.
Like I said, I'm used to you being basically the last person on earth to move tOSU to #1 so I'm not surprised that you disagree with Sagrin, all the voters here, @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) (see quoted below), the AP, etc on the Buckeyes but I was curious why you had Minnesota a step down because I see it more like this:
Kind of where I’m at but remove OSU. I think OSU a good deal above the other 3. I think M-PSU-Minny all kinda in the same group- and a good notch below OSU.
So Mdot, Sagrin, the AP, etc would all change your formulation to:
"If these teams were playing each other on a neutral field this Saturday, and I had to bet $10 on the games (and I wouldn't bet any more than that) I would flip a coin on UM, MN, and PSU. And I'd pick tOSU over any of those three."
Obviously I could be wrong. For one thing, Michigan and Minnesota are essentially being ranked based on one game each. Their three bad opponents were so bad that you can't get much of a read on them from those games so I'm basically ranking them based on this last weekend's results and maybe that was Minnesota's best game of the year or Michigan's worst or maybe MSU is a lot worse or UMD a lot better than I thought.
I feel like we have more information on tOSU and PSU but even there it is still pretty limited. Maybe Wisconsin sucks or just had a REALLY bad day. Maybe PSU's close game with CMU was just a fluke.
Based on what we have seen so far though, tOSU is a clear #1 with M, MN, and PSU very hard to differentiate between for 2/3/4.
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Everyone has a top 4 with OSU, UM, PSU and Minny, in some order. I agree. I would just put Minny 4th, but not far behind at all. It is after 4th where I see a gap.
if these teams were playing each other on a neutral field this Saturday, and I had to bet $10 on the games ( and I wouldn’t bet any more tha that) I would flip a coin on OSU, UM and PSU. And begrudgingly pick those 3 over the gophers. And I could be totally wrong.
This is similar where I’m at. I think the one place I could be an outlier(puts on Michigan goggles) is that I think Maryland will end up being a better team than Michigan State.
(removes goggles) where that puts the Gophers Vs Wolverines and Nittany Lions, I have absolutely no idea.
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This is similar where I’m at. I think the one place I could be an outlier(puts on Michigan goggles) is that I think Maryland will end up being a better team than Michigan State.
(removes goggles) where that puts the Gophers Vs Wolverines and Nittany Lions, I have absolutely no idea.
I don’t think you need Michigan goggles on to say that.
Maryland has performed much better through 4 games than Michigan State. Michigan State got blown out on the road by Washington. They then turn around and just got blown out at home by Minnesota- that by the way was missing it’s #1 WR- in a must win home game scenario. By Minnesota. Not Ohio State. Their pass defense might be worst in the nation and their offensive line is pretty bad. That’s not a good combo for a team to have.
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Minnesota
- Maryland
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Purdue
- Rutgers
- Illinois
- Michigan State
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
- Indiana
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Prior rankings in parentheses chronologically from most recent at L to oldest at R:
- Ohio State (2,1,1,1), Ohio State's offense is scary good when they are clicking. To assuage @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) 's concerns, note that Ohio State did almost the exact same thing to MSU last year with three TD's in the first quarter and a fourth less than a minute into the second quarter to open up a 28-0 lead. In spite of that the Spartans had a pretty good year overall last year.
- Penn State (1,3,4,4), I think I was too quick to move them up. As I stated above they took three hits this week (their own performance looking shaky and two of their victims looking shaky as well).
- Michigan (3,2,2,2), I'm unsure of what to do with Michigan because their first three opponents were so awful that I put almost no weight on results against them and the Wolverines looked shaky against Maryland but I'm not comfortable ranking them essentially based on one game. For now I'll leave them here but if they look shaky against Iowa while Minnesota takes Purdue to the woodshed, they'll move down. Conversely, if they bounce back and demolish Iowa they could move up.
- Minnesota (4,5,6,8), much like the team above them, the Gophers' first three opponents were atrocious. I'm not comfortable moving them up based on basically one game.
- Maryland (8,8,9,12), Can Maryland sustain this into October?
- Wisconsin (5,6,3,3), For the time being I'm unsure how much of the tOSU/UW result was due to UW not being as good as we thought and how much was due to tOSU being better than we thought.
- Iowa (11,11,8,6), I don't think Iowa can beat Michigan without an offense. It worked against Rutgers though so who knows.
- Michigan State (6,4,5,5), The Spartans have now been demolished their last two outings and their prior opponents were MAC teams whose only wins came over St. Francis and Ball State.
- Purdue (7,7,7,7), Not a good look to need to hold off a 2pt conversion attempt to avoid OT against a team that lost to OhioU.
- Rutgers (9,9,10,13), That wasn't pretty.
- Illinois (10,10,13,9), That three point loss in Bloomington continues to mystify.
- Indiana (12,12,12,10), Pathetic loss to a G5 team.
- Nebraska (14,14,14,14), I'm moving them up despite not playing because Northwestern looked THAT bad.
- Northwestern (13,13,11,11), I've finally pulled the trigger on moving them below the Cornhuskers despite the H2H and Nebraska firing their coach simply because this team is awful.
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Last week in parentheses
- OHIO STATE (3) - PSU has the better resume, but I think OSU and UM are better, so once UM gets their resume this weekend, they'll jump up too
- PENN STATE (1) - didn't do anything wrong, see #1
- MICHIGAN (2) - see #1
- MINNESOTA (4) - solid favorite in the West, which means they could be 4th in the West
- IOWA (7) - we've seen this before, so unlike 2021, nobody is biting
- MARYLAND (8) - road 1 score loss at Michigan is better than anyone below them has done against a good schools
- MICHIGAN STATE (5) - they aren't good, but nobody behind them has done anything either
- WISCONSIN (6) - if they don't have a defense, what do they have?
- PURDUE (9) - maybe the worst win of the season for a Big Ten team?
- INDIANA (10) - the H2H win over Illinois is only barely worth anything now
- ILLINOIS (11) - see above
- RUTGERS (12) - Schiano has helped the defense, but the offense has never been worse
- NORTHWESTERN (13) - you'll always have Ireland
- NEBRASKA (14) - you'll always have the 70s, 80s and 90s
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- NEBRASKA (14) - you'll always have the 70s, 80s and 90s
and the 20s
the roaring 1920s
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Results posted.
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and the 20s
the roaring 1920s
America has that