CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on August 30, 2022, 04:02:27 PM
-
Just for fun. It's no fun to pick Alabama, Georgia or OSU to be there. It's only barely fun to pick Clemson/Oklahoma, but Clemson was not great last year, and Oklahoma lost a lot, so I'll allow it
-
I'm guessing Clemson will get sorted out and they have a half decent schedule. But it's a guess obviously, they could be 10-3 again.
-
going with Michigan
they might have a QB this season
-
Dave Aranda.
-
UNL might be talking with him now
-
I went with Clemson but it doesn't feel like much of a wildcard.
I think they'll bounce back at least somewhat and with their schedule 13-0 is definitely achievable.
-
Utah, but they have a tough one to start off w/ against Florida.
-
Baylor.
Anybody but Oklahoma.
-
Went with Michigan. Although it’s not that “wild” of a pick.
They are loaded. They have 3 tin cans for their pre season to get lots of experience and an easy schedule.
I fully expect them to roll into Columbus undefeated and ranked in the top 3. All they have to do is win that game. Not at all hard to imagine.
-
No write-in for Big Ten West champ?
-
Other (P5)
Big Ten West Champ
-
I went with Michigan but I'm a homer lol.
IF JJ wins the job and he's really THAT DUDE....Michigan could be an explosive ass offense bc they'll have a really good OL and playmakers everywhere. Ronnie Bell, Erik All, Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, and Andrel Anthony could all be really good this year- especially if they have the type of QB who can make them better.
-
Other (P5)
Big Ten West Champ
Would be terrific but I put it at like 4% chance. I think 7-2 takes the west over at least two 6-3's in what will be a very entertaining race including a couple underdog wins again for IL who will bowl. 3 or 4 at 6-3 and it all coming to tiebreakers wouldn't be too surprising either.
Purdue has the most palatable schedule amongst the presumed contenders. They are Minn are my picks on paper to win it due to schedule vs what Wisc and Iowa have.
-
Which games are shaping up to be "play in" games, like Notre Dame-Cincinnati last year?
-
If ND and Oregon lose as expected, they are virtually out (not technically of course). ND also hosts Clemson, that could be an elimination game for either.
If Utah loses at Florida, they could be out as well, especially if Florida goes say 7-5ish. Nebraska could beat OU. Ha.
I'm not counting important conference games.
-
If ND and Oregon lose as expected, they are virtually out (not technically of course). ND also hosts Clemson, that could be an elimination game for either.
I think that Notre Dame could potentially play their way in even with a loss to Ohio State.
Consider @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's simulation:
Ohio State finished 13-0 and #1 and the #4 spot ended up being between:
- An undefeated G5 Champion with a ridiculously weak schedule, or
- A one-loss Michigan team that lost only to #1 on the road but also didn't win their league or go to their CG and their best win was over 9-4 #17 (IIRC) Iowa, or
- One of three two-loss P5 Champions (Clemson, Oregon, and Oklahoma).
At 11-1 with a loss in Columbus Notre Dame would have the same loss as Michigan's but two advantages over the Wolverines:
- Notre Dame would likely have a better win (ACC Champion Clemson), and
- For Notre Dame the argument could be made that they have improved over the course of the season and are better now because their loss in Columbus was three months prior to Michigan's loss in Columbus.
In that scenario I think that Notre Dame would be ahead of Michigan (unless Michigan's loss to tOSU was substantially closer than Notre Dame's but even that might not be enough).
-
Agree, ND could be in at 11-1, but it would be fairly unlikely I think.
An 11-2 Oklahoma or Utah might nip them.
-
Agree, ND could be in at 11-1, but it would be fairly unlikely I think.
An 11-2 Oklahoma or Utah might nip them.
I agree on all counts. I was just differing with the idea that a loss for ND would virtually eliminate them.
If I were a ND fan and my team lost on Saturday, I'd simply hope that the loss was a reflection not of my own team's weakness but of their opponent's strength and figure that while the margin for error was gone, my team still had at least a 50/50 shot provided that they win out.
In the past when the committee has faced a choice between a two-loss P5 Champion and a one-loss non-Champion they've gone with the team with fewer losses every time so I don't *THINK* they'd take a hypothetical 11-2 Champion (in the simulation either Clemson, Oklahoma, or Oregon) over an 11-1 Notre Dame but they aren't bound by precedent so who knows.
-
It could get interesting, indeed, even aside from the G5 undefeated team. Often someone comes out of the back of the pack, like Michigan last year, or UCLA this year, maybe. The ELA simulation showing four teams from only two conferences would be novel, and could prompt more discussions.
-
Utah will only nip someone if undefeated
-
The Utes have never had this much preseason hype before. It's normally uncommon for them to get any mention at all in any type of National discussion.
-
and for good reason
-
The Utes might be pretty good, of course, but they are ranked pretty high. If they get by Florida, and if Florida is decent, they could get to 12-1 or so.