I'm hopeful that it's more like:Correct
Ohio State has an 83% chance to win against Notre Dame. Let's generate a random number between 1 and 100 and if it's 1-83, then Ohio State wins, but if it's 84-100, then Notre Dame wins.
I think Indiana won the Big Ten last year in this simulation. Not off to such a hot start this time.I think they lost to Clemson in the CFP semi
Sam as last year, instead of doing my own predictions, using FPI and SP+ to simulate the season, using HFA, along with momentum and travel considerations.ELA- thank you for doing this again this season. I truly appreciate it and enjoy it, and it’s fairly obvious that everyone else does too
Phil Steele's Preseason AP Poll Prediction only goes up to #10 this year, so I'll use our old friends at CFN's
- Alabama
- OHIO STATE
- Georgia
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- MICHIGAN
- Texas A&M
- USC
- MICHIGAN STATE
- Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma
- Ole Miss
- NC State
- Oregon
- Utah
- Arkansas
- Houston
- IOWA
- Baylor
- Tennessee
- Texas
- BYU
- Kentucky
- Florida
- PENN STATE
WEEK ONENot a good start for the B1G-E!
Thursday, September 1
- PURDUE d. #25 PENN STATE
Friday, September 2
- ILLINOIS d. INDIANA
Ouch, rough week for the conference.Hey, UM finished their gauntlet undefeated
YES!!!Congrats on beating those loathsome dirt burglars!
WEEK 6What a big weekend this would be! Seven pairs of ranked teams playing each other is a lot!
Saturday, October 9
ESPN College Gameday, live from Tuscaloosa, AL
#1 Alabama d. #13 Texas A&M
- #2 OHIO STATE d. #15 MICHIGAN STATE
- #3 Georgia d. #20 Auburn
- #19 UCLA d. #6 Utah
- #7 Notre Dame d. #25 BYU
- #21 Washington d. #14 Arizona State
- #16 IOWA d. ILLINOIS
What a big weekend this would be! Seven pairs of ranked teams playing each other is a lot!even some unranked games look intriguing.
What a big weekend this would be! Seven pairs of ranked teams playing each other is a lot!And yet, the following week, which looks like a dud on paper, turned out to perhaps be better. 6 ranked teams losing to unranked teams
And yet, the following week, which looks like a dud on paper, turned out to perhaps be better. 6 ranked teams losing to unranked teamsConveniently, my team has the week off on October 15.
And yet, the following week, which looks like a dud on paper, turned out to perhaps be better. 6 ranked teams losing to unranked teamsI'd guess that in a few of those such as Wisconsin-MSU and Purdue-Nebraska the unranked team may actually be the favorite. I think Purdue may have been favored or only very slight underdogs vs. MSU last year, and Vegas definitely knew something there.
I'd guess that in a few of those such as Wisconsin-MSU and Purdue-Nebraska the unranked team may actually be the favorite. I think Purdue may have been favored or only very slight underdogs vs. MSU last year, and Vegas definitely knew something there.Purdue at home for sure. Wisconsin at MSU might be close to a toss up. The SP/FPI numbers would favor Wisconsin by about 2.8 on a neutral field
no, no no, NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Tennessee d. #1 Alabama
no, no no, NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I know it always sucks to lose to a rival but in the CFP era the easiest loss to overcome, BY FAR, is a loss to a non-divisional conference opponent.
I know it always sucks to lose to a rival but in the CFP era the easiest loss to overcome, BY FAR, is a loss to a non-divisional conference opponent.
Losses to OOC opponents are bad for several reasons, chiefly:Losses within the division suck because they can cost you a spot in the CG.
- That OOC opponent may end up as a CFP contender and if so it is hard to get in ahead of them when carrying a H2H loss. This is not an issue with a non-divisional league loss because the team will either take themselves out by taking multiple losses or go to the CG where you'll get a second shot at them.
- With very limited interleague play, an OOC game generally ends up being perceived as proof positive that the winner is superior and the loser is inferior. This is a non-issue with league opponents due to common opponents.
Losses within the division to your hated archrival are absolutely the worst, as I know all too well.Absolutely. Sadly, I experienced that last year:
Absolutely. Sadly, I experienced that last year:
- Loss to hated archrival.
- Knocked out of CG.
- Knocked out of CFP.
Week 7 standingsInteresting dynamic here where the East is effectively a two-team race and likely to be decided in one game with the other five teams practically (although not mathematically) eliminated while the West is wide open with five teams all with one loss each.
BIG TEN
EASTWEST
- Michigan (4-0) 7-0
- Ohio State (3-0) 6-0
- Michigan State (2-2) 4-3
- Penn State (1-2) 3-3
- Indiana (1-3) 2-5
- Rutgers (0-3) 3-3
- Maryland (0-4) 2-5
- Nebraska (3-1) 6-1
- Wisconsin (3-1) 6-1
- Purdue (3-1) 5-2
- Iowa (2-1) 5-1
- Minnesota (2-1) 5-1
- Illinois (1-3) 3-4
- Northwestern (0-3) 1-5
Would you choose ...I think the answer to this depends largely on recent experience.
A. Your team finishes 8-5 with a bowl game win over nobody but you beat your hated rival, or
B. Your team finishes 12-2 with losses to both HR and in CFP.
I think the reaching the CFP part changes it. B seems obvious there. I think if you change it to 2021 OSU's season, 11-2, with a Rose Bowl win, it gets tougher. In 1998, I'd still choose B. Hell, maybe even in 2008. Now, eh, it's all a wash outside the CFP anyway, so I'd take the bragging rightsIt is interesting how much the CFP has changed the dynamic here.
I told y'all UCLA would be a sumthin ... see?Just remember that this system picked Indiana to go the CFP last year. But I love it anyways.
Beating Florida is always a good thing.so is beating tennessee, but i didn't get that pleasure this year. yes, i'm still salty.
Yeah, I'd be hugely mad if my team lost to Tenn in a simulation game.it's devastating.
i am not sure you are either on something or on to something but i am not sure Nebraska will be 7-1 on HalloweenNot my picks
5-3 and things could be worst at that point too
but it could happen i guess
ya gotta believe !!!This gives me a warm fuzzy over all the time I've saved ignoring Cowherd.
Colin believes
(https://i.imgur.com/Kw04trk.jpg)
only 3 undefeated teams???
perfect
This gives me a warm fuzzy over all the time I've saved ignoring Cowherd.I think that ended up being fake. I read on another message board that Cowherd denied it and then the original tweet was taken down.
Saturday, November 12
- #5 Alabama d. #9 Ole Miss
Week 11 standingsif my headmath is right, bama just locked up secw title and seccg birth. only 1 sec game left, bama's 1 loss is from east, and own head to head over ole miss. don't know ole miss 2nd loss, but doesn't matter if it's east or west, cause of h2h.
SEC
WEST
- Alabama (6-1) 9-1
- Ole Miss (4-2) 8-2
- Auburn (4-3) 7-3
- Texas A&M (4-3) 7-3
- Mississippi State (4-3) 6-4
- LSU (3-4) 6-4
- Arkansas (2-4) 4-6
even with this great season by recent standards.. Frost is going to have to win in Iowa City to save his jobI have to assume 8-4 with a win over Oklahoma is good enough right? Plus a chance at a bowl game against a P12 tomato can.
I have to assume 8-4 with a win over Oklahoma is good enough right? Plus a chance at a bowl game against a P12 tomato can.most would think so, but if you end the season on a 4 game skid with losses to Minnesooota, Wisconsin, and Iowa... all West division foes
WEEK 12
- Texas d. Kansas
Could Penn State really be this bad? Good thing Franklin already locked up his money.4 play each other, so 2 will be eliminated. Assuming Purdue handles Indiana, it will be a 3 way tie between the Boilers, and the two rivalry weekend winners
Plus who the heck would win the West if this happened. 5 teams at 5-3 with one game to go? This is a medinabuckeye wet dream!
Plus who the heck would win the West if this happened. 5 teams at 5-3 with one game to go? This is a medinabuckeye wet dream!I've been keeping an eye on it. It is interesting how different the two divisions are in this simulation. Everyone other than tOSU and M has been mathematically eliminated for a couple weeks and practically eliminated for much longer. Also, even before this week's simulated tOSU>UMD and M >IL THE GAME had already mathematically become the B1GECG.
yup, I preferred it with Woody and BoRose Bowl results suggest it was Little 2 and Littler 8
Big 2 and the little 8
WEEK 13So based on my post from yesterday the B1GCG should be tOSU vs Iowa.
Friday, November 25
- #21 IOWA d. #22 NEBRASKA
Saturday, November 26
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
#1 OHIO STATE d. #3 MICHIGAN
- #20 WISCONSIN d. #19 MINNESOTA
- PURDUE d. INDIANA
went back and added is up. division record for that scenario would be:
- UNL, MN, PU: I *THINK* Minnesota
UNL, MN, PU:
- H2H2H is tied at 1-1 so we move to
- Divisional Record: not sure what that is. If tied move to
- Record against the next highest placed team or team in the division. In this case that would be Iowa and Wisconsin. Minnesota would win here as they'd be 2-0 while the other two would be 1-1.
went back and added is up. division record for that scenario would be:To the best of my knowledge the B1G tiebreakers separate any team or teams from either the top OR the bottom so it would be Minnesota here as they have the better Divisional record compared with Nebraska and Purdue.
iowa - 4-2
minn - 5-1
neb - 4-2
pu - 3-3
wisc - 3-3
so minn would win on tie breaker 2.
unless, like some conferences do (or used to, not sure if they do anymore), the tie breaker doesn't determine the winner, it determines who to drop until it's 2 teams left, and use h2h. if that's the case, purdue would be dropped, leaving it a 2 team race, and nebraska would win on h2h over minn.
To the best of my knowledge the B1G tiebreakers separate any team or teams from either the top OR the bottom so it would be Minnesota here as they have the better Divisional record compared with Nebraska and Purdue.so if 1 team pops out as clear winner, they get it, but conversely if 1 team pops out as clear loser, they drop them and go back to 2 (or 3 or whatever) team tie breaker?
so if 1 team pops out as clear winner, they get it, but conversely if 1 team pops out as clear loser, they drop them and go back to 2 (or 3 or whatever) team tie breaker?Yes, if two are left but not three. Here is the link (https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx) and here is the relevant section:
I think UGA is in period, as per last season.I think this applies to both tOSU and UGA because even with losses in their CG'S they'd be 12-1.
If Michigan is 11-1 with their loan loss being to the number one team in the country on the road, I don't see how you put in a two loss ACC champion, or an undefeated Houston, thatI didn't realize that about Houston and that does make a difference.
never had to play Cincinnati. Remember, they are playing UCF in the title game
Also, I think everybody outside of Tuscaloosa would be better off with a UGA win in the SECCG.that's just mean
that's just meanLoL.
Leaving 3/4/5 as is, but open to changing based on feedback. If we don't get any, I'll likely just flip Georgia/Michigan, and that's the playoffThat fourth spot is tough.
December 4 Poll
- OHIO STATE (13-0) 1
- Alabama (12-1) 3
- Georgia (12-1) 2
- MICHIGAN (11-1) 4
- Clemson (11-2) 5
- Houston (13-0) 6
- Oklahoma (11-2) 9
- Oregon (11-2) 10
That fourth spot is tough.Alright, UM #3, Georgia #4, Clemson #5, Houston #6 it is
Houston is undefeated but their schedule is crap, even worse than Cincy last year.
Clemson, Oklahoma, and Oregon are all P5 Champs but all have two losses and differentiating between them is tricky as well.
Michigan isn't a Champion and didn't even make their CG but their loss is as good as can be so I think it is them.
I agree with you that the committee would then flip UGA/Michigan to avoid a double rematch. IMHO that is a big advantage for Bama because they end up as the only one of the Big3 not playing another in the semi-final.
| DECEMBER 16 | . | |
| BAHAMAS | UAB (9-3) vs. Kent State (6-6) | |
| CURE | Georgia State (7-5) vs. San Jose State (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 17 | ||
| FENWAY | #13 Cincinnati (11-1) vs. Virginia (6-6) | |
| NEW MEXICO | Air Force (9-3) vs. Florida Atlantic (6-6) | |
| LA | UCLA (8-4) vs. San Diego State (10-3) | |
| LENDING TREE | Coastal Carolina (7-5) vs. Miami(Ohio) (6-6) | |
| LAS VEGAS | #20 Washington (9-3) vs. BYU (7-5) | |
| FRISCO | Southern Miss (8-4) vs. Utah State (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 19 | ||
| MYRTLE BEACH | Appalachian State (10-3) vs. Liberty (8-4) | |
| DECEMBER 20 | ||
| POTATO | Boise State (9-3) vs. Akron (7-6) | |
| BOCA RATON | Marshall (10-2) vs. Tulane (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 21 | ||
| NEW ORLEANS | Louisiana (9-4) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 22 | ||
| ARMED FORCES | TCU (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 23 | ||
| INDEPENDENCE | Army (10-2) vs. Memphis (8-4) | |
| GASPARILLA | #25 Western Kentucky (12-2) vs. Wake Forest (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 24 | ||
| HAWAII | Fresno State (9-3) vs. UTSA (8-5) | |
| DECEMBER 26 | ||
| QUICK LANE | Western Michigan (9-4) vs. Old Dominion (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 27 | ||
| CAMELLIA | Arkansas State (7-5) vs. Buffalo (7-5) | |
| BIRMINGHAM | SMU (6-6) vs. Arkansas (5-7) | |
| FIRST RESPONDER | Oregon State (7-5) vs. Iowa State (6-6) | |
| GUARANTEED RATE | PENN STATE (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 28 | ||
| MILITARY | NC State (7-5) vs. Central Florida (10-3) | |
| LIBERTY | West Virginia (6-6) vs. Florida (5-7) | |
| HOLIDAY | #22 USC (8-4) vs. Louisville (7-5) | |
| TEXAS | Mississippi State (7-5) vs. Texas (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 29 | ||
| PINSTRIPE | MICHIGAN STATE (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5) | |
| CHEEZ-IT | Baylor (8-4) vs. Florida State (8-4) | |
| ALAMO | #17 Oklahoma State (9-4) vs. Arizona State (8-4) | |
| DECEMBER 30 | ||
| MAYO | #15 Notre Dame (9-3) vs. #24 PURDUE (8-4) | |
| SUN | #21 Utah (9-4) vs. #14 Pittsburgh (10-2) | |
| GATOR | #19 Miami (9-3) vs. Kentucky (7-5) | |
| ARIZONA | Colorado State (10-3) vs. Toledo (9-3) | |
| ORANGE | #5 Clemson (11-2) vs. #11 Texas A&M (9-3) | |
| DECEMBER 31 | ||
| MUSIC CITY | MINNESOTA (8-4) vs. LSU (7-5) | |
| SUGAR | #7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #9 Ole Miss (10-2) | |
| PEACH (CFP) | #2 Alabama (12-1) vs. #3 MICHIGAN (11-1) | |
| FIESTA (CFP) | #1 OHIO STATE (13-0) vs. #4 Georgia (12-1) | |
| JANUARY 2 | ||
| RELIAQUEST | #18 IOWA (9-4) vs. #23 Auburn (8-4) | |
| CITRUS | #12 Tennessee (9-3) vs. NEBRASKA (8-4) | |
| COTTON | #6 Houston (13-0) vs. #10 North Carolina (10-3) | |
| ROSE | . | #8 Oregon (11-2) vs. #16 WISCONSIN (9-3) |
| DECEMBER 16 | . | |
| BAHAMAS | Kent State d. UAB | |
| CURE | Georgia State d. San Jose State | |
| DECEMBER 17 | ||
| FENWAY | Virginia d. #13 Cincinnati | |
| NEW MEXICO | Air Force d. Florida Atlantic | |
| LA | UCLA d. San Diego State | |
| LENDING TREE | Coastal Carolina d. Miami(Ohio) | |
| LAS VEGAS | #20 Washington d. BYU | |
| FRISCO | Utah State d. Southern Miss | |
| DECEMBER 19 | ||
| MYRTLE BEACH | Liberty d. Appalachian State | |
| DECEMBER 20 | ||
| POTATO | Boise State d. Akron | |
| BOCA RATON | Tulane d. Marshall | |
| DECEMBER 21 | ||
| NEW ORLEANS | Louisiana Tech d. Louisiana | |
| DECEMBER 22 | ||
| ARMED FORCES | TCU d. South Florida | |
| DECEMBER 23 | ||
| INDEPENDENCE | Memphis d. Army | |
| GASPARILLA | Wake Forest d. #25 Western Kentucky | |
| DECEMBER 24 | ||
| HAWAII | Fresno State d. UTSA | |
| DECEMBER 26 | ||
| QUICK LANE | Western Michigan d. Old Dominion | |
| DECEMBER 27 | ||
| CAMELLIA | Buffalo d. Arkansas State | |
| BIRMINGHAM | SMU d. Arkansas | |
| FIRST RESPONDER | Oregon State d. Iowa State | |
| GUARANTEED RATE | Texas Tech d. PENN STATE | |
| DECEMBER 28 | ||
| MILITARY | Central Florida d. NC State | |
| LIBERTY | Florida d. West Virginia | |
| HOLIDAY | #22 USC d. Louisville | |
| TEXAS | Mississippi State d. Texas | |
| DECEMBER 29 | ||
| PINSTRIPE | MICHIGAN STATE d. Syracuse | |
| CHEEZ-IT | Florida State d. Baylor | |
| ALAMO | #17 Oklahoma State d. Arizona State | |
| DECEMBER 30 | ||
| MAYO | #15 Notre Dame d. #24 PURDUE | |
| SUN | #14 Pittsburgh d. #21 Utah | |
| GATOR | Kentucky d. #19 Miami | |
| ARIZONA | Colorado State d. Toledo | |
| ORANGE | #5 Clemson d. #11 Texas A&M | |
| DECEMBER 31 | ||
| MUSIC CITY | MINNESOTA d. LSU | |
| SUGAR | #9 Ole Miss d. #7 Oklahoma | |
| PEACH (CFP) | #2 Alabama d. #3 MICHIGAN | |
| FIESTA (CFP) | #1 OHIO STATE d. #4 Georgia | |
| JANUARY 2 | ||
| RELIAQUEST | #23 Auburn d. #18 IOWA | |
| CITRUS | #12 Tennessee d. NEBRASKA | |
| COTTON | #10 North Carolina d. #6 Houston | |
| ROSE | . | #8 Oregon d. #16 WISCONSIN |
i wonder if they'd go for the 2 rematches in semis to avoid another rematch in title game. probably not, but never been in this situation before.I think you'd roll the dice on the CG for two reasons:
argument for is basically you're guaranteed to have 2 big regions interested for both semi and titles games that way.
Alright, UM #3, Georgia #4, Clemson #5, Houston #6 it isThe one thing I didn't mention and probably should have is that it would likely hinge on a factor that you might have but that we aren't given in thuis simulation: MOV.
If UGA has a 30% chance of beating OSU and Michigan has a 30% chance of beating Bama, the odds of a rematch are less than 10%...I think your math is off.
CFP National ChampionshipLiked x1,000,000,000,000
January 9, 2023
ESPN College Gameday, live from Los Angeles, CA
#1 OHIO STATE d. #2 Alabama
Obviously thrilled. You get a national title, an undefeated season and a win over an undefeated Michigan in the Game. Then you also get to beat 2 SEC teams in the playoffs. Was this thing written by Buckeye fan fiction?AAA (ann arbhor adam) --> ELA (east lansing adam) --> TCA (the columbus adam) or maybe BAA (benedict arnold adam)?
If this is what happened, would you be:Obviously thrilled, this covers it:
1. Thrilled
2. Satisfied
3. So so
4. Disappointed
5. ranting
Obviously thrilled. You get a national title, an undefeated season and a win over an undefeated Michigan in the Game. Then you also get to beat 2 SEC teams in the playoffs. Was this thing written by Buckeye fan fiction?
So SoI've just been entering the preseason power ranking votes and what a difference a year makes. Last year MSU was #13.
8-5 isn't bad, and we were certainly a bit ahead our boots last year, but taking a step back when the trajectory is building up, never feels good. But if you had told me before last year we'd go 6-6 last season, and then 8-4 in 2022, I would have been very happy with that
I've just been entering the preseason power ranking votes and what a difference a year makes. Last year MSU was #13.Yeah OSU is a loss no matter where, so the two coin flip division games go from home to away. Trading Nebraska for Wisconsin as the marquee crossover opponent certainly doesn't help. Then the big OOC game we trade @Miami for @Washington. Washington is a mess, but so was Miami last year, and that west coast September road trip seems to always be unnecessarily difficult for Big Ten teams.
That said, I think the schedule is unhelpful for the Spartans. They get Ohio State at home but the next two toughest B1G-E teams (M, PSU) on the road. Then they get Wisconsin as a crossover at home. 2-2 against that group would be great but I think 1-3 is most likely with 0-4 about as likely as 2-2.
If this is what happened, would you be:1. And drunk.
1. Thrilled
2. Satisfied
3. So so
4. Disappointed
5. ranting
AAA (ann arbhor adam) --> ELA (east lansing adam) --> TCA (the columbus adam) or maybe BAA (benedict arnold adam)?Don't say baa around a Michigan fan, or you'll get them all excited :57:
Yep, schedules matter. I think Wisconsin is the best team in the West on paper, but they have an absolutely brutal schedule, so I think a 9-4 season would be a good season. If they can win the West against that schedule, it would have to border on thrilling.We Badger fans mostly all want 10 wins this season.