CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on January 11, 2022, 11:15:08 AM
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Championships:
- 3 Alabama
- 2 Clemson
- 1 Ohio State
- 1 Louisiana State
- 1 Georgia
Wins:
- 9 Alabama
- 6 Clemson
- 3 Ohio State
- 3 Georgia
- 2 Louisiana State
- 1 Oregon
Appearances:
- 7 Alabama
- 6 Clemson
- 4 Ohio State
- 4 Oklahoma
- 2 Georgia
- 2 Notre Dame
- 1 Oregon
- 1 Florida State
- 1 Michigan State
- 1 Washington
- 1 Michigan
- 1 Cincinnati
Even though they didn't win it all, Alabama really pulled away this year:
Championships: Since the winner was a first-time CFP winner Bama's lead remains one over Clemson and two over the 1-NC group that is now expanded to tOSU, LSU, and UGA.
Wins:
Bama got yet another CFP win to pull further ahead of their closest contender (Clemson) and they have six more CFP wins than third place (tOSU/UGA).
Appearances:
This is where Bama really pulled ahead. They had a down year and still made it while their closest competitors (Clemson, tOSU, and Oklahoma) all missed.
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Expanding the playoff will surely cause Alabama to stop making playoff appearances.
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I am theoretically curious which "team left out" really had a solid chance of winning the current system.
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I am theoretically curious why "team left out" really had a solid chance of winning the current system.
Huh?
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I am theoretically curious why "team left out" really had a solid chance of winning the current system.
I don't think anyone would argue that.
We've only seen a couple champs that would've been left out in the old system, so I suppose we don't know. And with the old system, we saw a few champs that would've been locked out in the previous system.
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Pre-CFP, bowl alliance any of it, there were 2 examples I'm aware of where the #5 team rose to #1 after the bowls. That can't happen anymore, unless....
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I was pondering which Five slotted team could have won an extended playoff.
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I was pondering which Five slotted team could have won an extended playoff.
I don't even know who the "first one out" was in any of the given years, but I suspect medinabuckeye will be along any moment to provide this analysis, and we will all be very grateful. :)
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I don't even know who the "first one out" was in any of the given years, but I suspect medinabuckeye will be along any moment to provide this analysis, and we will all be very grateful. :)
Eh, it is really hard to say.
One thing about the playoff is that the eight CFP Champions starting with Ohio State in 2014 have probably played eight of the ten or so toughest schedules ever played by a NC and quite possibly the toughest eight.
When I look at Ohio State's CFP NC in 2014, after the Michigan game that year the Buckeyes played:
- #13 Wisconsin in the B1GCG
- #4 Bama in the CFP Semi-Final
- #2 Oregon in the CFPNC
Just a few years prior to that very good tOSU season would have ended with Michigan, Rose Bowl and the Rose Bowl opponent *MIGHT* have been a great one like USC in 1968/69 (#2 at game time, #4 final) or they might have been not so good.
That 2014 tOSU team ended up playing (final AP ranks):
- #2 Oregon
- #4 Bama
- #5 Michigan State
- #13 Wisconsin
- RV Minnesota
- RV Rutgers
2015 Champion Alabama ended up playing (final AP ranks):
- #2 Clemson
- #6 Michigan State
- #10 Ole Miss
- #16 LSU
- #21 Wisconsin
- #22 Tennessee
- #25 Florida
- RV Georgia
- RV MissSt
- RV Arkansas
The 2014 Buckeyes played three top-5 teams and four of the top-13. The 2015 Tide played three top-10 teams and SEVEN ranked teams. Pre-CFP schedules like that would almost never have happened. I know that 1973 USC played #1 ND, #2 tOSU, and #3 Oklahoma but they went 0-2-1 and if they HAD won those games then those teams wouldn't have finished that high.
In the Buckeyes last pre-BCS NC (1968) they played:
- #4 USC
- #10 Purdue
- #12 Michigan
- #14 SMU
That was a REALLY tough schedule for that era because a bunch of stars aligned to make it that way:
- There were two other good league teams, and
- Ohio State played both of them, and
- Ohio State played a pretty good OOC game (SMU), and
- Ohio State's bowl opponent was really good (#2 at game time, defending NC, with Heisman winner, some guy named OJ).
Still, it wasn't NEARLY as tough at the very top as what all CFP Champs have faced.
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5th team
what 6th, 7th, or 8th team would have a reasonable chance???
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That is why I'd be OK with a 6 team playoff, but no more. I don't think teams 7-12 should be included, and view 5 and 6 as sketchy.
This year we would have had some bad conference champs in the mix and an at large that won it as it stands now.
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That is why I'd be OK with a 6 team playoff, but no more. I don't think teams 7-12 should be included, and view 5 and 6 as sketchy.
This year we would have had some bad conference champs in the mix and an at large that won it as it stands now.
I wasn't in favor of expanding to four and I'm not in favor of further expansion but, as I outlined in another thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/if-not-when-how-much-longer-until-the-big-moneyhelmets-break/28/), I feel that expansion is inevitable and think that an eight team CFP with the first round on campus hosted by the top-4 league champions would be the best expansion possibility. Why do you like six and how would you set it up?
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I prefer four, but think six is "OK" and 8 is too many for reasons stated. But six allows all conference champs to be included plus one at large. And perhaps this year Cincy would be the at large. But then Wake and Utah get in along with OU, meh.
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Since this is the only CFP thread on the front page, I'll put this here:
https://twitter.com/jbook37/status/1480967027627937794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1480967027627937794%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fjbook37%2Fstatus%2F1480967027627937794
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Since this is the only CFP thread on the front page, I'll put this here:
https://twitter.com/jbook37/status/1480967027627937794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1480967027627937794%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fjbook37%2Fstatus%2F1480967027627937794
That's a dumb hill to die on, for several reasons...
- 95% of the time, the B1G champion will be one of the 5 highest ranked champs, even if you assume nothing in the college football landscape ever changes.
- It should be the G5 that's arguing that it should be the ***6*** highest ranked champs, to keep their seat at the table, but nothing really affects Warren in any way there.
- My own belief is that the realignment of OU/TX to the SEC is going to turn the system into a P4/G6 system, or maybe at most a P4.5/G5.5 system, and if that happens it becomes even MORE likely that the B1G champ will be one of the top 4 ranked champs 95% of the time, and one of the top 5 ranked champs any year that isn't complete and total chaos.
- If you're the goddamn Big Ten Conference, with some of the most storied history of the ENTIRE world of CFB, and your champ isn't one of the top 5 conf champs? They probably don't deserve to be in the playoff anyway.
Of course, this presupposes that it's true. I wouldn't exactly trust it.
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I would think the only time it wouldn't happen, would be if there was an upset in the conference championship game. In the CFP era, where a non tourney, or even close, team knocked a team out?
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That's a dumb hill to die on, for several reasons...
- 95% of the time, the B1G champion will be one of the 5 highest ranked champs, even if you assume nothing in the college football landscape ever changes.
- It should be the G5 that's arguing that it should be the ***6*** highest ranked champs, to keep their seat at the table, but nothing really affects Warren in any way there.
- My own belief is that the realignment of OU/TX to the SEC is going to turn the system into a P4/G6 system, or maybe at most a P4.5/G5.5 system, and if that happens it becomes even MORE likely that the B1G champ will be one of the top 4 ranked champs 95% of the time, and one of the top 5 ranked champs any year that isn't complete and total chaos.
- If you're the goddamn Big Ten Conference, with some of the most storied history of the ENTIRE world of CFB, and your champ isn't one of the top 5 conf champs? They probably don't deserve to be in the playoff anyway.
Of course, this presupposes that it's true. I wouldn't exactly trust it.
If it's true, of course, I actually agree with Warren.
However, it seems like he's trying to protect FBS college football in general rather than performing his fiduciary responsibility to the B1G.
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I would think the only time it wouldn't happen, would be if there was an upset in the conference championship game. In the CFP era, where a non tourney, or even close, team knocked a team out?
I agree but even there the B1G would likely be fine for two reasons:
- The "other" B1GCG participant is usually going to be at least decent plus getting the boost from the upset that they just pulled off.
- It is reasonably likely that the upset loser would get in if there are eight or 12 teams anyway.
AP ranks in the CFP era:
- 2014: Ohio State was #6 and UW was #11 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and moved up to #5, UW dropped to #17.
- 2015: Iowa was #4 and Michigan State was #5 heading into the CG. MSU won and moved up to #3, IA dropped to #6.
- 2016: Wisconsin was #6 and Penn State was #8 heading into the CG. Additionally, tOSU and Michigan were #2 and #5. PSU won and moved up to #5, UW dropped to #8.
- 2017: Wisconsin was #3 and Ohio State was #8 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and moved up to #5, UW dropped to #6.
- 2018: Ohio State was #6 and Northwestern was #21 heading into the CG. Ohio state won and moved up to #5, NU dropped to "RV".
- 2019: Ohio State was #2 and Wisconsin was #10 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and held #2, UW dropped to #11.
- 2020: Ohio State was #3 and Northwestern was #15 heading into the CG. Ohio State won and held #3, NU held #15.
- 2021: Michigan was #2 and Iowa was #15 heading into the CG. Michigan won and held #2, IA dropped to #17.
AP ranks of league champs pre-bowl:
2014:
- #1 Bama
- #2 FSU
- #3 Oregon
- #4 Baylor
- #5 tOSU
2015:
- #1 Clemson
- #2 Bama
- #3 MSU
- #4 Oklahoma
- #5 Stanford
2016:
- #1 Bama
- #3 Clemson
- #4 Washington
- #5 Penn State
- #7 Oklahoma
Note that the other two teams in the top-7 were #2 tOSU and #6 Michigan.
2017:
- #1 Clemson
- #2 Oklahoma
- #3 Georgia
- #5 Ohio State
- #8 USC
2018:
- #1 Bama
- #2 Clemson
- #4 Oklahoma
- #5 Ohio State
- #9 Washington
2019:
- #1 LSU
- #2 Ohio State
- #3 Clemson
- #4 Oklahoma
- #7 Oregon
2020:
- #1 Bama
- #2 Clemson
- #3 Ohio State
- #8 Oklahoma
- #25 Oregon
2021:
- #1 Bama
- #2 Michigan
- #6 Baylor
- #10 Utah
- #13 Pitt
So in eight years the B1G champion has been:
- Second among P5 Champs twice, both times #2 AP.
- Third among P5 Champs twice, both times #3 AP.
- Fourth among P5 Champs three times, all three times #5 AP.
- Fifth among P5 Champs once, #5 AP.
So in the CFP era the B1G Champion has never been ranked worse than #5 and has only been outside the top-4 Champs once (and that was AP only, they were top-4 in the CFP).
Even if there had been upsets:
2014:
With a win over #6 tOSU in the B1GCG the #11 Badgers would have improved to 11-2 and finished #6 right behind Baylor/TCU (both 11-1) and ahead of tOSU (11-2) and MSU (10-2). They'd have been the 5th highest ranked P5 Champion.
2015:
Michigan State WAS the lower ranked team and moved up to #3 and third among P5 Champs.
2016:
Penn State WAS the lower ranked team and moved up to #5 and fourth among P5 Champs.
2017:
Ohio State WAS the lower ranked team and moved up to #5 and fourth among P5 Champs.
2018:
With a win over #6 tOSU in the B1GCG the #21 Wildcats would have improved to 9-4 and probably finished #14. That would have been last among P5 Champs but 10-2 Michigan was #8 and 11-2 Ohio State would have been ahead of them.
2019:
With a win over #2 tOSU in the B1GCG the #10 Badgers would have improved to 11-2 and probably finished #5. That would have been fourth among P5 Champs.
2020:
With a win over #3 tOSU in the B1GCG the #15 Wildcats would have improved to 7-1 and probably finished #6. That would have been third among P5 Champs.
2021:
With a win over #2 Michigan in the B1GCG the #15 Hawkeyes would have improved to 11-2 and probably finished #5 or #6. That would have been second or third among P5 Champs.