CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 28, 2021, 08:32:44 AM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-12-25019/).
Votes through @NorthernOhioBuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=40) , 13 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/aFRmkHZ.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/XTZyoOD.png)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/pH6RkJi.png)
GOTY progression:
- Preseason: #1 tOSU vs #2 UW not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 1: #1 tOSU vs #2 PSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 2: #1 Iowa vs #2 PSU 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 3: #1 PSU vs #2 Iowa 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 4: #1 PSU at #2 tOSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 5: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 6: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 7: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 8: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 9: #1 tOSU vs #2 MSU 11/20 in Columbus
- Week 10: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 11: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 12: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 13: #1 M vs #2 tOSU 11/27 in Ann Arbor
COTY Progression:
- Tucker with Locksley and Schiano chasing
- Tucker with Schiano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker with Schciano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Frost and Ferentz well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Harbaugh and Bert well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
- Tucker with a slightly less enormous lead than he has had, Brohm, Bert, and Harbaugh well behind.
- Tucker with a huge lead, Brohm, Bert, and Harbaugh well behind.
- Tucker with a huge lead, Brohm, Harbaugh, and Bert well behind.
- Tucker with a huge lead, Harbaugh, Bert, and Brohm well behind.
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1. Michigan: Heck of a nice game, they surely brought the juice. Michigan's strong line play has guided them all season, and this game was the crown jewel. Only question is whether they can bring that kind of intensity again in a week. Uncharted waters for the Wolverines, who are in great position to win the B1G and get to the playoffs.
2. Ohio State: Full circle for the Buckeyes. After a season of trying to change their defense, this game didn't look all that different from the Oregon game. A defense that just couldn't hold up at the point of attack, and enough jank on offense to prevent winning a shootout. Back to the drawing board.
3. Michigan State: Things get really tough here. I have had Wisconsin in this spot for weeks, but their offense was MIA again against Minnesota. Sparty pulled out a tough win over a good team a week after getting obliterated - shows the resilience of this team. Heck of a nice season.
4. Iowa: Again with the rejigger. Like it or not, Iowa is in the B1G championship game, so ranking them as low as I have doesn't really make sense. They are still very limited on offense, but hey, they outgained Nebraska. Over 350 yards of offense!
5. Minnesota: A really tough team to place, but they won the ax. They have had some high highs and low lows. Really all these teams have been extremely inconsistent.
6. Wisconsin: Another tough team to place. They have had consistent great defense, but man that offense has oscillated between scary and hopeless.
7. Penn State: Yet another tough team to rank. I had them fourth last week. But at some point you have to win games, not just look good in close losses.
8. Purdue: Really a solid season for the Boilers.
9. Nebraska: What a team!
10. Illinois: A really decent first season for Bert.
11. Maryland: Locks is going bowling.
12. Rutgers: Not much in the tank for the last game.
13. Northwestern: What a crappy season
14. Indiana: Same
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan State
4. Iowa
5. Wisconsin
6. Penn State
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Maryland
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana
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2. Ohio State: Full circle for the Buckeyes. After a season of trying to change their defense, this game didn't look all that different from the Oregon game. A defense that just couldn't hold up at the point of attack, and enough jank on offense to prevent winning a shootout. Back to the drawing board.
Yup look at Clemson won 2 MNC's with a good defense and Brett Venables directing.Ryan Day has some staff rearranging,these guys are payed handsomely,give them best wishes and pink slips.IMO opinion time to re evaluate Studrawa's body of work also
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1. Michigan: Heck of a nice game, they surely brought the juice. Michigan's strong line play has guided them all season, and this game was the crown jewel. Only question is whether they can bring that kind of intensity again in a week. Uncharted waters for the Wolverines, who are in great position to win the B1G and get to the playoffs.
2. Ohio State: Full circle for the Buckeyes. After a season of trying to change their defense, this game didn't look all that different from the Oregon game. A defense that just couldn't hold up at the point of attack, and enough jank on offense to prevent winning a shootout. Back to the drawing board.
3. Michigan State: Things get really tough here. I have had Wisconsin in this spot for weeks, but their offense was MIA again against Minnesota. Sparty pulled out a tough win over a good team a week after getting obliterated - shows the resilience of this team. Heck of a nice season.
4. Iowa: Again with the rejigger. Like it or not, Iowa is in the B1G championship game, so ranking them as low as I have doesn't really make sense. They are still very limited on offense, but hey, they outgained Nebraska. Over 350 yards of offense!
5. Minnesota: A really tough team to place, but they won the ax. They have had some high highs and low lows. Really all these teams have been extremely inconsistent.
6. Wisconsin: Another tough team to place. They have had consistent great defense, but man that offense has oscillated between scary and hopeless.
7. Penn State: Yet another tough team to rank. I had them fourth last week. But at some point you have to win games, not just look good in close losses.
8. Purdue: Really a solid season for the Boilers.
9. Nebraska: What a team!
10. Illinois: A really decent first season for Bert.
11. Maryland: Locks is going bowling.
12. Rutgers: Not much in the tank for the last game.
13. Northwestern: What a crappy season
14. Indiana: Same
Looks about right to me
if you want a good laugh- go look at ESPN power rankings. They have MSU ahead of Ohio State.
you can’t dream this stuff up.
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Iowa
4. Michigan State
5. Minnesota
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Penn State
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Maryland
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana
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1. Mich - until yesterday I did not think there was a big difference between from #2 to #8, but you got to give Mich credit. They beat THE team we all thought was invincible. Now they are the new #1
2. OSU - you have to wonder how OSU would do against Mich on a neutral field with decent weather, but hey this is the Big Ten. You need to be able to win when the weather is not ideal.
This is where I get stuck. #3 to #10 all seem very close where all of them could win on the right day, just Iowa usually finds a way to win and Neb always finds a way to lose.
3. Purdue - playing better down the stretch than any other team ranked below them
4. Wisc - stumbled in last game but had won 7 games in a row before losing to Minn.
5. Iowa - Neb game is perfect summary of how Iowa scores points. 4 FGs, 1 safety, 1 TD from a blocked punt, and 1 TD from a 2yd QB sneak.
6. Minn - tough team to rank, 6-3 with wins over Wiisc, Purdue. Losses to Iowa, OSU, ILL. Very jeckyl and Hyde team.
7. MSU - seems low for a 10-2 team, but not the strongest finish after 8-0 start. At least they beat PSU in the end.
8. PSU - in the end, they were a 4-5 in Big Ten.
9. ILL - strong finish against NW. Unfortunately their small chances to make a bowl as a 5-7 team appear to be gone.
10. Neb - you could argue that special teams cost Neb 3 wins this year but it still does not fully explain why Neb always loses close games.
11. MD - Bowl bound!
12. Rutgers - Not Bowl bound.
13. NW - Even numbered years - first place. Odd numbered years - last place.
14. Ind - What an epic collapse! Team just flat out gave up at the end if the year.
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- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Michigan State
- Iowa
- Penn State
- Wisconsin
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Rutgers
- Northwestern
- Indiana
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1 Michigan
2 Iowa
3 OSU
4 MSU
5 Minnesota
6 Wisconsin
7 PSU
8 Purdue
9 Illinois
10 Nebraska
11 Maryland
12 Rutgers
13 Northwestern
14 Indiana
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(https://i.imgur.com/x5qSauB.png)
A slight reordering this week after the results of the weekend.
Michigan: Big Ten East Champion, deservedly so. They made few mistakes. Their offensive line dominated. Ohio State made mistakes, and was out-penalized by Michigan by 46-yards (Ohio St. 66- Mich. 20).
I am rewriting "Hail to the Victors," because I am a great author. The final line of "Hail to the Victors," hereafter is, "The champions of the East!" You earned it.
Ohio State: My #2. C.J. Stroud said he lost his voice after taking ill this week and blames his lost voice on communication issues and penalties. Folks, get your flu shot! It is circulating. Not sure that's what he had, but it went around the Iowa football team. It has been all over Ann Arbor and Tallahassee. Stroud's passing and receivers seemed unaffected. I usually am not engrossed in Ohio St. - Mich. It's not the only rivalry and they are not the only teams. But this year, it was a game to behold, for me. I enjoyed watching it. There was a lot of good scheming, and a lot of good players on both sides.
Iowa: I never thought I would look upon Iowa-Nebraska as a rivalry. As a kid growing up in the '60s and '70s, I knew how important the ISU-Nebraska rivalry was because I carried the Des Moines Register, and Iowa State could almost never beat them but the lead up to the game and the pics and story in the newspaper was always quite something. And, Ames to Lincoln was not too far distant. And, now, I think Iowa-Nebraska is growing into a rivalry. I wish we had some other animal atop the trophy, maybe a Badger or a Gopher being clobbered by over-sized ears of corn in the talons of a Hawk, and in the hands of a farmer. Iowa seems to have just enough to beat Nebraska. Nebraska seems to have just enough to tease Iowa into believing Nebraska might prevail.
Minnesota: Thank you, Gophers, I think. We will find out how badly, (or well) you set the plate for Iowa.
Michigan State: Defeated a good Penn State team in the snow.
I feel a bit bad for the rest of the Big Ten, and will withhold further comment.
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Last week in parenthesis
- MICHIGAN (2) - certainly didn't expect this a month ago
- OHIO STATE (1) - probably the first time I have confidently felt that OSU wasn't the best team in the conference since end of 2013
- MICHIGAN STATE (4) - I wish we could get one game a year in those conditions
- WISCONSIN (3) - simply nothing to rely on offensively when needed
- PURDUE (6) - Bucket Game was never in doubt
- IOWA (7) - wonder what kind of reaction you would have gotten mid 3rd quarter if you had told an Iowa fan they'd be in the Big Ten title game against Michigan
- PENN STATE (5) - lost 5 of their final 7, and those September wins over Wisconsin and Auburn look less impressive now
- MINNESOTA (8) - absolutely kicking themselves over that Illinois game
- NEBRASKA (9) - I can't believe they did it again
- MARYLAND (11) - getting to a bowl is a solid step
- ILLINOIS (12) - not a bad first season, building a foundation
- RUTGERS (10) - failing to get to a bowl game, with how they looked in September, is a disappointment
- NORTHWESTERN (13) - blah
- INDIANA (14) - also blah
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Iowa
4. Michigan State
5. Minnesota
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Penn State
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Maryland
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana
Swap Illinois and Nebraska and those are my rankings.
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Last week in parenthesis
- IOWA (7) - wonder what kind of reaction you would have gotten mid 3rd quarter if you had told an Iowa fan they'd be in the Big Ten title game against Michigan
The hypothetical Iowa fan in the 3rd Qtr. would say, "All we need is to kick two more field goals, score 7 on a blocked punt, get a safety, score one TD on offense, shutdown the Nebraska offense, and Minnesota and Michigan will take care of the rest, otherwise what you are saying makes no sense."
This is why I like the hypothetical in the Playoff thread about what happens if all the favored teams lose this coming Saturday, then who makes the playoff?
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 I'm sure I'll take flack for this but as far as I am concerned one game does not erase the previous eight or 11. The Michigan team that we saw against Ohio State on Saturday is easily #1 in the league but where was that team the rest of the year?
- Michigan - 2,2,2,3,2,2,3,3,3,3,5,5,5 Great performance this week.
Michigan State - 5,5,5,2,5,6,6,6,8,7,9,9,11 Last week after MSU got obliterated by the Buckeyes I said "The Spartans aren't nearly as bad as they looked on Saturday." They weren't.
- Iowa - 6,6,6,6,3,4,2,2,4,5,4,4,4 Another odd team. They'll probably gain 150 yards against Michigan yet manage to score 24 points and win 24-23.
- Wisconsin - 3,3,3,4,4,5,5,5,7,4,3,3,2 Prior to last weekend it looked like the Badgers and Buckeyes had both conquered their early-season issues and we were going to see yet another UW/tOSU match in the CG. Then this weekend both the Badgers and Buckeyes suddenly reverted to what they looked like in losses and unimpressive wins two+ months ago.
- Minnesota - 8,8,8,7,7,7,10,10,9,6,8,6,7 Heck of a performance in the Ax game!
- Penn State - 4,4,4,5,6,3,4,4,2,2,2,2,3 Odd team. They don't "feel like" a sub .500 team to me but they are finished 4-5 in the league. Four of their five losses were by four points, by a FG twice, and in the NINTH OT. Penn State is four plays from 10-1/7-1 but . . . They aren't 10-1/7-1, they are 7-5/4-5.
- Purdue - 7,7,7,8,9,8,12,12,11,11,11,11,10 The Boilermakers finished a very respectable 6-3/8-4 and oh-so-close to a CG.
- Maryland - 9,9,9,9,10,9,8,8,5,8,6,7,12 It impresses me that after looking dead for two+ months the Terps dominated Rutgers like that.
- Nebraska - 10,10,10,10,11,10,7,7,12,12,14,14,9 Another game another one-score loss. Nebraska's close losses to make it "feel" like they are better than this but 3-9/1-8 keeps them here. It is seriously astounding that they could manage to lose nine games while never getting blown out and only losing once by more than one score.
- Illinois - 11,11,11,13,8,12,13,13,13,13,13,13,14 Blew out Northwestern.
- Rutgers - 12,12,13,12,14,9,9,9,6,9,7,8,13 Home for the holidays.
- Northwestern - 13,13,14,14,13,14,14,14,14,14,12,12,8 Just not their year.
- Indiana - 14,14,12,11,12,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,6 For anyone keeping track, the Hoosiers lost to Cincinnati by two TD's. In the B1G they have bigger losses to tOSU (47), PU (37), RU (35), IA (28), PSU (24), M (22), and MN (21).
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Ranking based on relative performance in B1G games:
- 1.56 tOSU
- 3.33 UW
- 3.72 UNL
- 3.89 PU
- 3.94 PSU
- 4.00 M
- 4.55 MN
- 4.72 IA
- 5.06 IL
- 5.67 MSU
- 6.72 RU
- 7.50 UMD
- 7.61 NU
- 7.72 IU
Method:
Each teams' opponents are ranked 1->9 based on scores of the nine league games. For example, Ohio State's nine opponents:
- M gets a #1 for beating them by 15
- PSU and UNL each get a 2.5 because their 9 point losses tie for second/third best
- MN gets a #4 for losing by 14
- PU gets a #5 for losing by 28
- RU gets a #6 for losing by 39
- IU gets a #7 for losing by 47
- MSU and UMD each get a 8.5 because their 49 point losses tie for eight/ninth
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I'm gonna hang out in this thread
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1. Michigan - Even a broken clock is right twice a day right medina?
2. OSU - still has the most talent, but there are issues here.
3. MSU - 95 million good
4. Iowa
5 Minnesota
6 Wisconsin
7 PSU
8 Purdue
9 Illinois
10 Maryland
11 Nebraska
12 Rutgers
13 Northwestern
14 Indiana
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For the first time, I have to put Michigan first (duh). I'll go with the ranking above.
Indiana is a shocker, for me, really.
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For the first time, I have to put Michigan first (duh). I'll go with the ranking above.
Indiana is a shocker, for me, really.
I've been very vocally lower on IU than everyone else since preseason. I expected a significant regression from 2020.
But 2-10 shocks me as well. I was thinking maybe 6-6 with 4-5 in conference.
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Perhaps it's a different thread, but which teams did 2+ wins better, or worse, than you expected?
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Perhaps it's a different thread, but which teams did 2+ wins better, or worse, than you expected?
I took MSU under 6.5 wins, and Northwestern over that. So those two for sure
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I think most Purdue fans thought, especially with a very difficult schedule, we were about a 6-6 team. Vegas had the O/U on wins at 5, according to VegasInsider.com.
So I'd say that Purdue at 8-4 was 2 or 2+ wins above expectation.
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I'm just glad that the entire conference wasn't worse than Indiana and Northwestern for a second year in a row. That was embarrassing.
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If you click on the link to last week's rankings at the top of this thread then click on the middle chart it compares preseason ranking to current.
Last week MSU, PU, M, and ILL were all well above and they all won this week.
Mmeanwhile IU, NU, and PSU were all well below and they all lost this week.
I'd go with those seven.
Perhaps it's a different thread, but which teams did 2+ wins better, or worse, than you expected?
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1. Michigan - Even a broken clock is right twice a day right medina?
Definitely for you, hopefully for TTUN as well.
Your don't get credit for predicting that tOSU would struggle because you said the same thing week after week before blowout wins. You were bound to be right eventually.
Now about TTUN:
Right now Michigan fans are rightfully celebrating and Ohio State fans are justifiably down but when the long history of this rivalry is written the key is whether 2021 will be like 2011, 1998, and 1994 or whether it will be like 2001, 1969, and 1954.
- In 2011 Michigan had been losing badly in the rivalry since 2001 and got a win but it proved to be nothing but a footnote to tOSU's dominance which continued
- In 1998 tOSU had been losing badly in the rivalry since 1988 and got a win but it proved to be nothing but a footnote to Michigan's dominance which continued
- In 1994 tOSU had been losing badly in the rivalry since 1988 and got a win but it proved to be nothing but a footnote to Michigan's dominance which continued
- In 2001 tOSU had been losing badly in the rivalry since 1988 and got a win. That win flipped the script completely as the Buckeyes dominated from there.
- In 1969 Michigan had been losing badly in the rivalry since 1954 and got a win. That win ended tOSU's dominance and ushered in a 19 year period during which Woody and Earle went 9-9-1 against Bo.
- In 1954 tOSU had been losing badly in the rivalry since 1938 and got a win. That win flipped the script completely as the Buckeyes dominated through 1968.
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Its interesting how everybody is ranking all the teams clumped together with 7-2 and 6-3 records.
I thought it was strange so many people were ranking Purdue #8 while I had Purdue #3. I was thinking they must think Purdue wins over Iowa and MSU are flukes.
But then it hit me. As an Iowa fan, my rankings were heavily skewed by how much each team did against Iowa. So since Iowa lost to Purdue and Wisc I had Purdue and Wisc above Iowa. Since Iowa beat Minn and PSU, I had them below Iowa.
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I only got to watch THE GAME and was at a party the rest of the evening. So my conclusions are not well informed, but here it goes anyway.
- Michigan - They knocked the king off the thrown.
- Ohio State - TTUN exposed this teams weakness's and vulnerabilities. I hope they get it figured out before the bowl game.
- Michigan State - Not sure where to rank the next few teams. MSU here by default.
- Iowa - Best of the West . . . I think. Hard to say.
- Wisconsin - Didn't see a loss to Minn coming.
- Purdue - Probably could be higher, just not sure at this point.
- Minnesota - Good win to finish the regular season.
- Penn State - Hard team to gauge. Definitely a better team with a healthy Clifford.
- Illinois - Best of the rest? Nice turnaround after the last few years.
- Maryland - Here be default. Not sure they are better than Neb.
- Nebraska - Set an NCAA record for most single digit losses. They have something to work with, they just need to figure out how to put it together. Can Frost get it done next year? We he be there to try?
- Rutgers - After a promising start to the season, they ran into some really good teams. Still and improvement over the past few years.
- Northwestern - At least they are not last.
- Indiana - This team quit a few weeks ago and it showed badly.
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ed zachery
many times the only time we see teams play an entire game is vs our fav team
probably not the best evaluation, but...... it's what we have
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Its interesting how everybody is ranking all the teams clumped together with 7-2 and 6-3 records.
I thought it was strange so many people were ranking Purdue #8 while I had Purdue #3. I was thinking they must think Purdue wins over Iowa and MSU are flukes.
But then it hit me. As an Iowa fan, my rankings were heavily skewed by how much each team did against Iowa. So since Iowa lost to Purdue and Wisc I had Purdue and Wisc above Iowa. Since Iowa beat Minn and PSU, I had them below Iowa.
I think the Schedule/Performance chart that I post each week makes it easier to spot outliers because I sort it with highest ranked/best teams at the top/left and the lowest ranked/worst teams at the bottom/right. In theory looking down each team's column their worst results should be at the top with results improving as you progress down the column. Substantial deviations from that are outliers. Every team has outliers, upsets happen but if you rank teams based on outliers you'll be wrong a lot.
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ed zachery
many times the only time we see teams play an entire game is vs our fav team
probably not the best evaluation, but...... it's what we have
I usually try to watch as many and as much of the other games as possible. I just enjoy watching B1G teams play.
But I was hostage at a party that went on well into the evening and completely missed all other games.
But we did have a lot of fun.
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sometimes, life gets in the way
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It was brought in a different thread that Iowa benefitted from not playing OSU, Mich, MSU, which is true.
One can argue that MSU, Mich and OSU also benefited from Rutgers, MD, Ind and PSU being worse than originally thought. MSU especially also got lucky with its schedule, not having to play Wisc, Iowa, Minn or ILL. We saw what happened to MSU against Purdue.
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It was brought in a different thread that Iowa benefitted from not playing OSU, Mich, MSU, which is true.
One can argue that MSU, Mich and OSU also benefited from Rutgers, MD, Ind and PSU being worse than originally thought. MSU especially also got lucky with its schedule, not having to play Wisc, Iowa, Minn or ILL. We saw what happened to MSU against Purdue.
More examples of where schedules matter:
As it turned out, Penn State had to play the top five teams in the conference. The best team that they missed was #6 Minnesota. They went 1-4 against the top-5 with a one-score win over Wisconsin, a two-score loss to tOSU, and one-score losses to M, MSU, and IA. Here is how each B1G team did against the top-5 (sorted by pre CG ranking):
- M was 2-1
- tOSU was 1-1
- MSU was 1-1
- Iowa was 0-1
- UW was 1-1
- MN was 1-2
- PSU was 1-4
- PU was 2-2
- IL was 0-2
- UNL was 0-5
- UMD was 0-4
- RU was 0-4
- NU was 0-4
- IU was 0-4
Only Michigan and . . . wait for it . . . Purdue had more wins over top-5 teams than the Nittany Lions so was going 1-4 against that group really all that bad? What was worse for PSU was that four of their five games against the top-5 teams in the league were on the road (#2 tOSU, #3 MSU, #4 IA, and #5 UW). Here is how all B1G teams did in road games against top-5 opponents:
- M 1-1
- tOSU 0-1
- MSU 0-1
- IA 0-1
- UW 0-0
- MN 0-1
- PSU 1-3
- PU 1-1
- IL 0-1
- UNL 0-2
- UMD 0-2
- RU 0-1
- NU 0-2
- IU 0-2
Penn State had four road games against top-5 teams in the league and no other team had more than two. Also note that PSU's .250 winning percentage in such games was third best in the league behind only Michigan and Purdue (both .500). The entire rest of the league combined was 0-fer.
How did the top-5 look when they travelled to other top-5 teams? Well:
- Michigan looked good in Madison but bad in East Lansing.
- Ohio State looked terrible in Ann Arbor.
- Michigan State didn't even look terrible in Columbus.
- Iowa looked terrible in Madison.
- Wisconsin didn't even play a top-5 team on the road.
Penn State's win in Madison was one of just three road wins over top-5 teams all year:
- #8 PU at #4 IA by 17
- #1 M at #5 UW by 21
- #7 PSU at #5 UW by 6
I'd also point out that the three road games against top-5 opponents that PSU lost were all pretty close:
- PSU lost at #2 tOSU by 9
- PSU lost at #3 MSU by 3
- PSU lost at #4 IA by 3
Their tough schedule easily cost the Nittany Lions a couple of games.
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Results posted, votes through @NorthernOhioBuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=40) , 13 voters.
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Their tough schedule easily cost the Nittany Lions a couple of games.
There is beat down here on Penn State. The Big Ten has 4 teams ranked in the Top 25. However, the Massey composite computer rankings has 7 Big ten teams in the Top 25:
2. Mich
4. Ohio St
11. Mich St.
12. Iowa
13. Wisc.
22. Purdue
23. Penn St.
Massey composite is a more accurate portrayal of the overall strength of the conference.
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in Massey's opinion ;)
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There is beat down here on Penn State. The Big Ten has 4 teams ranked in the Top 25. However, the Massey composite computer rankings has 7 Big ten teams in the Top 25:
2. Mich
4. Ohio St
11. Mich St.
12. Iowa
13. Wisc.
22. Purdue
23. Penn St.
Massey composite is a more accurate portrayal of the overall strength of the conference.
Penn State is only 7-5 but using the rankings you listed here, four of their five losses were:
- by four points to the #2 team in the nation
- by nine points to the #4 team in the nation, on the road
- by three points to the #11 team in the nation, on the road
- by three points to the #12 team in the nation, on the road
None of those are even remotely close to "bad" losses. IMHO, the Nittany Lions are VASTLY better than their record and are likely to just obliterate their bowl opponent because they are likely to be matched up against a team with a similar record.
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FWIW:
Michigan State is the flip side of Penn State. While the Nittany Lions were hurt by a brutally difficult schedule both in terms of the which cross-overs they played and the allocation of H/A games, the Spartans were helped by a comparatively easy schedule both in terms of which cross-overs they played and the allocation of H/A games.
Here are MSU's five B1G road games by current Power Ranking:
- L by 49 at #2 tOSU
- L by 11 at #8 PU
- W by 18 at #12 RU
- W by 17 at #13 NU
- W by 5 at #14 IU
Ie, MSU's only conference road wins this year were over the three worst teams in the league.
Then look at MSU's four B1G home games also by current Power Ranking:
- W by 4 vs #1 M
- W by 3 vs #7 PSU
- W in OT vs #10 UNL
- W by 19 vs #11 UMD
Three of the four were close enough that it isn't unreasonable to attribute the wins to HFA.
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I think I have read somewhere that home field advantage has disapeared in the NFL, with home teams actually posting a .500 record the last 2 years in a row. You could write that off in 2020 due to empty stadiums and covid distractions, but now that trend has continued in 2021 too.
I have also have heard in the past that HFA was considered to be worth 3 points. I wonder if that is still true. Probably not for NFL anymore, I wonder if it is still true in college football?
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I think I have read somewhere that home field advantage has disapeared in the NFL, with home teams actually posting a .500 record the last 2 years in a row. You could write that off in 2020 due to empty stadiums and covid distractions, but now that trend has continued in 2021 too.
I have also have heard in the past that HFA was considered to be worth 3 points. I wonder if that is still true. Probably not for NFL anymore, I wonder if it is still true in college football?
I think it is a bigger deal in college for a bunch of reasons:
One is that younger players are probably overall more likely to be more emotionally swayed. That roaring home crowd maybe pumps them up a little more than it does with older professionals.
Another is the limited time available for college teams. They have to at least pretend to attend classes and practice time is limited. Those distractions do not exist in the NFL.
Finally, from my limited experience attending NFL games I honestly don't think that NFL stadiums, on average, are anywhere near as loud as large College venues. The Dawg Pound in Cleveland can be pretty intense but I think it pails next to the student sections at PSU, UW, tOSU, etc.
Just looking at this year home records (sorted by power ranking):
- 4-0 M
- 4-0 tOSU
- 4-0 MSU
- 4-1 IA
- 3-2 UW
- 3-2 MN
- 2-2 PSU
- 3-2 PU
- 2-3 IL
- 1-4 UNL
- 1-3 UMD
- 0-4 RU
- 1-4 NU
- 0-4 IU
- 32-31
Road records (I realize this should be the inverse, I'm just doing it as a double-check):
- 4-1 M
- 4-1 tOSU
- 3-2 MSU
- 3-1 IA
- 3-1 UW
- 3-1 MN
- 2-3 PSU
- 3-1 PU
- 2-2 IL
- 0-4 UNL
- 2-3 UMD
- 2-3 RU
- 0-4 NU
- 0-5 IU
- 31-32
Obviously that is NOT a major gap but IMHO that is largely due to quirks in the schedule:
- M was 1/2 game better at home
- tOSU was 1/2 game better at home
- MSU was 1-1/2 games better at home
- IA was 1/2 game better at home
- UW was 1/2 game better on the road
- MN was 1/2 game better on the road
- PSU was 1/2 game better at home
- PU was 1/2 game better on the road
- IL was 1/2 game better on the road
- UNL was 1/2 game better at home
- UMD was 1/2 game better on the road
- RU was 1-1/2 games better on the road
- NU was 1/2 game better at home
- IU was even
Wisconsin was 1/2 game better on the road but note that three of their four best opponents were at home so I think that has a lot more to do with opponent quality than with location.
Minnesota was 1/2 game better on the road but just like UW who lost at home to M, MN lost at home to tOSU.
Purdue was 1/2 game better on the road but not that they played three of their five toughest opponents at home with one win (MSU) and two losses (UW, MN) in those games.
Illinois is hard to figure out in general. They lost to a couple of pretty bad teams (UMD, RU) both at home and beat a couple of pretty good teams (MN, PSU) both on the road. That is just goofy even without accounting for HFA.
UMD was 1/2 game better on the road but they simply beat the three worst teams they played (#14 IU, #12 RU, #9 IL) and lost to the other six (the top-7 excluding #5 UW). That is opponent quality not HFA and they just happened to catch two of their three easiest opponents on the road.
Rutgers is the only one that did more than 1/2 game better on the road so lets dive deeper on this one:
- L to #1 M by 7 on the road.
- L to #2 tOSU by 39 at home.
- L to #3 MSU by 18 at home.
- L to #5 UW by 49 at home.
- L to #7 PSU by 28 on the road.
- Beat #9 IL by 6 on the road.
- L to #11 UMD by 24 at home.
- L to #13 NU by 14 one the road.
- Beat #14 IU by 35 on the road.
My hunch is that HFA was irrelevant in those first five games listed simply because RU wasn't good enough to beat any of those teams no matter where they played. The road upset of Illinois is just plain inexplicable but, as noted above, Illinois is just hard to figure out. After that they played the two worst teams in the league on the road and went 1-1.
Finally, not to open a can of worms but IMHO the B1G-W is the inferior division and this year their teams had five home and four road games. Ie, the inferior division was playing at home more often and the home teams STILL ended up with a .500+ record.