| Penn State Nittany Lions (4-4, 7-4) at #12 Michigan State Spartans (6-2, 9-2) |
| 3:30 - East Lansing, MI - ABC |
| The health status of Michigan State's skill position players makes this one nearly impossible to predict. Kenneth Walker III is banged up, only got 6 carries last week, and his status to even play is in doubt. Their top 2 receivers are both still out, as Nailor still has a cast on his hand, and Jayden Reed spent the second half last week in a boot. No word on starting LT Jarrett Horst, who hasn't played since the Michigan game. Defensively, both cornerbacks were already out for the season, and top lineman Jakub Panasiuk, middle linebacker Quavarius Crouch, and top safety Xavier Henderson all finished last week in street clothes. The roster turnover at the top has been remarkable in Year 1 to Year 2 for Mel Tucker, but I think we are starting to see how flimsy the depth remains. This isn't a new problem, even at the height of Dantonio, he was doing a great job mining MAC level recruits and turning them into Big Ten starters; but behind them were MAC level recruits...for a reason. I said preseason that I thought receiver was the deepest on the team, so I'm actually more comfortable with those guys stepping up. Keon Coleman was the true freshman we heard the most about in fall camp, and I'm surprised we hadn't seen more of him previously. He scored the one touchdown against Ohio State, on a hell of a catch. But Penn State's defense is no joke, particularly the secondary. To have any sort of game against that back four, down his three best weapons, Peyton Thorne is going to have to have his best game of the season. Penn State's concern isn't injuries, but a team wide flu outbreak, that impacted the team last week in a win over Rutgers that stayed too close for too long. 21 players, including 4 offensive line starters, missed the game. Even without Panasiuk and Crouch, the Spartans front can be formidable at time, when you don't have 3 NFL receivers running free almost immediately on every play. You would assume you wouldn't still be suffering from ailments a week later, but who knows how close to 100% they'll be in terms of physicality and conditioning after that. There are so many unknowns, so I'll give the edge to Penn State having better depth, and a chance that more of their guys will be back. |
| PENN STATE 21, MICHIGAN STATE 20 |
Gut check time for Sparty. Do they come out guns blazing? Or are they licking their wounds?Penn State needs the win way more than MSU imo. 8-4 with a chance to be 9-4 after a bowl is a lot better than 7-5 and a chance to be 7-6 after a bowl game. Franklin is in year 8 and coming off a 4-5 season. And they just signed him to a 10 year extension and PAID him- he needs every W he can get his hands on right now.
Penn State needs the win way more than MSU imo. 8-4 with a chance to be 9-4 after a bowl is a lot better than 7-5 and a chance to be 7-6 after a bowl game. Franklin is in year 8 and coming off a 4-5 season. And they just signed him to a 10 year extension and PAID him- he needs every W he can get his hands on right now.Needs? Maybe
Even at 9-3- Tucker in year 2 at 9-3 from where he inherited that program and being 2-0 vs Michigan- dude still playing with house money.
Needs? Maybedo the bowl games really matter any more with the playoff format?
But I think from a recruiting point, PSU is what it is. Win or loss, PSU is in the Outback, or Las Vegas, or whatever. With a loss, MSU is probably Citrus or Outback. With a win, they are probably in an NY6 bowl, I think that's a big sell in Year 2, whether or not we care.
do the bowl games really matter any more with the playoff format?Matter? The results, nah. I think from a recruiting standpoint, an NY6 bowl, like the Fiesta or Rose, still means something vs. the Outback
do the bowl games really matter any more with the playoff format?Ehh, you're trying to impress 17-year-olds. If you're after the kind of kids a lot of our schools are after,r you can pitch it as being a thing.
Ehh, you're trying to impress 17-year-olds. If you're after the kind of kids a lot of our schools are after,r you can pitch it as being a thing.Eh. I don't know. I tend to think the bowls matter less and less. Which is why you've seen consolidation in recruiting- kids all want to go to the playoff now and are only going to like 4-5 teams right now if they get those offers. which is why I'm all for expanding the playoff- it will make it harder for those 4-5 schools to get consolidation power in recruiting- kids will know they'll have a playoff opportunity if they go to other schools. you'll probably see it go to 12-16 teams in the very near future.
If MSU finishes 11-2, that looks pretty gaudy for them, top ten finish, possible top five, and the reverse is true, they could well finish 9-4, which is decent, ranked, but 15th or so with some disappointment at the end of the season.Penn State probably SHOULD win on paper if Clifford and Dotson are able to go off- but James Franklin will keep MSU in it til the end. It's just what he does. The guy is an awful in-game situational coach. Hell of a recruiter though.
PSU is in the same kind of boat lower down obviously, they could finish 7-6 or 9-4 (8-5), none of these would be considered a sterling outing for them. Interesting game to me, I don't have a clue who will prevail.
https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1464365743512993794?s=20If what you say is true, Penn State should win. In my opinion, if both teams are healthy, they are equal.
MSU in line for a NY6 bowl, no? Rose?Seeing Fiesta
I forget the Fiesta exists for some reason. Iowa in the Rose? Meh.If Iowa wins, they are locked into the Rose. If Michigan wins, I assume the Rose would take OSU, but I suppose they could worry OSU fans would be disappointed to go, and make take a more fired up MSU fanbase? I doubt it, but I suppose there's a chance.