CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 24, 2021, 10:56:42 AM
-
- 11-0 Georgia: @ GaTech, vs #3 Bama in SECCG
- 10-1 Ohio State: @ #5 Michigan, vs #14 UW, #16 IA, or MN in the B1GCG if they beat Michigan
- 10-1 Alabama: @ Auburn, vs #1 UGA in SECCG
- 11-0 Cincy: @ ECU, vs #24 Houston in AACCG
- 10-1 Michigan: vs #2 tOSU, vs #14 UW, #16 IA, or MN in the B1GCG if they beat tOSU
- 10-1 Notre Dame: @ Stanford
- 10-1 Oklahoma State: vs #10 OU, vs either #10 OU or #8 Baylor in B12CG
- 9-2 Baylor: vs TxTech, vs OkSU in B12CG if they and OkSU both win this week
- 9-2 Ole Miss: @MsSt
- 10-1 Oklahoma: @ #7 OkSU, vs #7 OkSU in B12CG if they win Bedlam or if Baylor loses
- 9-2 Oregon: vs OrSU, vs Utah in P12CG if they beat OrSU
- 9-2 Michigan State: vs PSU
- 9-2 BYU: @ USC
- 8-3 Wisconsin: @MN, vs #2 tOSU or #5 M in B1GCG if they win or if IA loses and PU wins
- 8-3 aTm: @ LSU
- 9-2 Iowa: @ UNL, vs #2 tOSU or #5 M in B1GCG if they win and UW loses
- 9-2 Pitt: @ Cuse, vs #18 Wake, #23 Clemson, or #20 NCST in ACCCG
- 9-2 Wake: @ BC, vs #17 Pitt if they win
- 8-3 Utah: vs Colorado, vs #11 Oregon, OrSU, or WSU in P12CG
- 8-3 NCST: vs UNC, vs #17 Pitt in ACCCG if they win and Wake loses
- 10-1 SDSU: vs Boise, vs MWC in MWCCG if they win or if Fresno loses
- 11-0 UTSA: @UNT, vs CUSA in CUSACG
- 8-3 Clemson: @ USC-e, vs #17 Pitt in ACCCG if Wake and NCST both lose
- 10-1 Houston: @ UCONN, vs #4 Cincy in AACCG
- 7-4 Arkansas: vs Mizzou
-
As I see it the following teams control their own destiny:
- #1 UGA: They win out they are a 13-0 SEC Champion and #1.
- #2 tOSU: They win out they are a 12-1 B1G Champion and no worse than #2.
- #3 Bama: They win out they are a 12-1 SEC Champion and no worse than #2 (almost certainly #1 but MAYBE not if they win close ones over Auburn and UGA while tOSU rolls).
- #5 Michigan: They win out they are a 12-1 B1G Champion and no worse than #3 (could be behind UGA/Bama).
- #7 OkSU: They win out they are a 12-1 B12 Champion and in.
- #10 OU: They win out they are a 12-1 B12 Champion and in.
What the others need:
- #4 Cincinnati: Obviously they need to win out to have a chance then they just need to hope that the committee doesn't realize that they played a bunch of teams that my local HS would probably beat and for good measure it would help immensely if the B1G-W Champion wins the B1GCG and/or if the Oklahoma schools both lose another game. Also it would help if UGA throttles Bama in the SECCG.
- #6 Notre Dame: They need what Cincy needs plus a Cincy loss.
- #8 Baylor: They could make it but they need OkSU to knock off OU in Bedlam then they'll also need some additional help in the form of a Cincy loss and/or a B1G-W team winning the B1GCG and it would also help them immensely if UGA throttles Bama in the SECCG.
- #9 Ole Miss: No chance. Even with absolute chaos they can't get in because they'd still be a 2-loss non-Champion.
- #11 Oregon: Maybe with a LOT of chaos.
-
Others should definitely hope for a UGA blow out. For some reason, I do as well.
-
Others should definitely hope for a UGA blow out. For some reason, I do as well.
LoL. An Auburn win in the Iron Bowl combined with an UGA win in the SECCG would be even better if you are one of those teams needing Bama to drop out. Obviously the worst case scenario for them would be for UGA/Bama to both finish 12-1.
-
My picks
- Georgia (beats Bama)
- OSU/M (winner beats B1G W in Indy)
- Cincinnati (wins out)
- Notre Dame (wins out)
/Oklahoma loses at least once to OSU2.
-
In a universe where UGA beats Bama:
Ohio State or Michigan (IFF they win the CG, which is probable)
Cincy (IFF they win out)
OkSU/OU if they win out.
ND as alternative.
-
If UGA loses close to Bama, they're still in regardless of anything Cinci/ND/OU/OkSU do, right?
-
If UGA loses close to Bama, they're still in regardless of anything Cinci/ND/OU/OkSU do, right?
Not only that, but they only drop the Dawgs to 3 in order to avoid a SECCG rematch in the semifinals.
-
Not only that, but they only drop the Dawgs to 3 in order to avoid a SECCG rematch in the semifinals.
Oh I know they'd figure that out. If they can't justify Georgia at 3 then they'll move them to 4 and say that OSU should be #1 and Bama #2...
They won't match up SEC in the semis.
-
It could hinge on the nature of the loss of course. If UGA loses how they have lost in previous games with Bama, they would not drop out (presuming they beat tech).
But I think UGA is "in".
-
(https://i.imgur.com/HFXvpqx.png)
Were I to rank them myself based on power alone, I'd have OSU #2, as they do, then it gets hazy. Michigan is the same as OSU in effect. Do I put ND ahead of Cincy? Do I drop down to OkState? I think I do. They are too low. Then I have ND or Cincy. I know H2H, but who would win today? ND I think.
-
I think so as well cause, SEC
but, the committee could go back and examine the entire Dawg schedule and decide their best win is over a 4 loss Arkansas team
of course their lone loss would be to an impressive team
-
Their best win technically would be over #23 Clemson, and then #25 Arky. Other than Clemson, every win was by a substantial margin. But they had a pretty light schedule. I blame Florida for that.
-
College football rankings: How BCS Standings would look entering Week 13 (247sports.com) (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/College-football-rankings-How-BCS-Standings-would-look-entering-Week-13-176130603/#176130603_7)
About the same as the CFP order.
-
Their best win technically would be over #23 Clemson, and then #25 Arky. Other than Clemson, every win was by a substantial margin. But they had a pretty light schedule. I blame Florida for that.
I know the committee prefers their ranking of course, but Clemson is not in the top 25 of the AP or Coaches
of course Clemson and/or Arkansas could lose another game
-
I'm surprised to see that Oklahoma State can play their way in. They'd leapfrog ND, right?
-
Yeah, I think they would if they win out, unless Bama edges UGA.
-
It could hinge on the nature of the loss of course. If UGA loses how they have lost in previous games with Bama, they would not drop out (presuming they beat tech).
But I think UGA is "in".
What if they beat Bama, but barf up a game vs Tech?
-
gives them a good win and a horrible loss
-
What if they beat Bama, but barf up a game vs Tech?
I think they'd be in as a 12-1 SEC champ, but not No. 1
Tech is pretty bad though, I think the odds there are quite low.
-
what if a bunch of their top players decided to sit our the Tech game to protect against injury and then of course the rest of the team just really wasn't motivated?
-
That would be a factor, but I suspect the Dawg twos could beat Tech. The backup QB is a former 5 star. And apparently their injured players are getting healthy, George Pickens could be back for the CG, he's a factor on the outside.
Will George Pickens play in SEC Championship Game? Signs point to yes (fansided.com) (https://fansided.com/2021/11/20/george-pickens-injury-update-play-sec-championship-game/)
-
what if a bunch of their top players decided to sit our the Tech game to protect against injury and then of course the rest of the team just really wasn't motivated?
And now your snarkiness has compared a hapless GT team with a top G5 team.
You guys aren't good at this. Your only fans are each other.
-
what if a bunch of their top players decided to sit our the Tech game to protect against injury and then of course the rest of the team just really wasn't motivated?
He's posing an amusingly improbable scenario. It's not snarky, he's noting it's possible UGA could lose to Tech, but might take a bizarre situation.
We do that around here, sort of chat about scenarios and make comments.
-
He's posing an amusingly improbable scenario. It's not snarky, he's noting it's possible UGA could lose to Tech, but might take a bizarre situation.
We do that around here, sort of chat about scenarios and make comments.
I don't have the heart to explain it.
-
I probably lack the brains to understand if you did of course.
Speaking of which, who had ND played, aside from Cincy?
-
Speaking of which, who had ND played, aside from Cincy?
They do have multi-touchdown wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, though they did beat Toledo by a field goal when they upped the competition.
-
They have three 3 point wins over:
VaTech
FSU
Toldeo
If they make the CFP I expect a repeat of the past.
-
ND played 3 G5 teams.
Cinci has 9 on their schedule and an FCS team.
Who wants to pretend all weak schedules are the same? Anyone? Anyone?
-
ND played 3 G5 teams.
Cinci has 9 on their schedule and an FCS team.
Who wants to pretend all weak schedules are the same? Anyone? Anyone?
Your schedule isn't particularly relevant to how good you are? Are you claiming Alabama would magically suck if they played Cincinnati's schedule?
-
In the CFP so far we've had point differentials of:
- 39 (semi)
- 22 (championship)
- 38 (semi)
- 31 (semi)
- 27 (semi)
- 28 (championship)
- 35 (semi)
- 28 (championship)
So let's not argue that we're keeping Cinci out to protect them from a blowout or uncompetitive game.
-
Your schedule isn't particularly relevant to how good you are? Are you claiming Alabama would magically suck if they played Cincinnati's schedule?
how good you are is mostly related to how many losses you have
just ask the committee
-
Your schedule isn't particularly relevant to how good you are? Are you claiming Alabama would magically suck if they played Cincinnati's schedule?
Yup, and Clemson has been playing in by far the weakest of the P5 conferences, but it hasn't stopped them from having success in the CFP.
-
well, I don't know about "by far". Don't forget the Big 12 and the PAC ;)
-
well, I don't know about "by far". Don't forget the Big 12 and the PAC ;)
The B12 isn't anywhere close to as bad as the ACC. The PAC is somewhere in between.
And it's not like the B1G and SEC have been world-beaters lately either. This year especially, the SEC is a mess, outside of Georgia.
-
Your schedule isn't particularly relevant to how good you are? Are you claiming Alabama would magically suck if they played Cincinnati's schedule?
What in the holy hell is this coming from?
-
What in the holy hell is this coming from?
Uh, you going on about Cincy's schedule
-
The B12 isn't anywhere close to as bad as the ACC. The PAC is somewhere in between.
And it's not like the B1G and SEC have been world-beaters lately either. This year especially, the SEC is a mess, outside of Georgia.
yup, checking the Dawg's schedule, I was surprised to see only 4 SEC teams in the top 20
the Big 12 has 3 in the top 10
the ACC and PAC having rough seasons
-
SEC teams beat up on each other and the sportswriters are all from the North and biased.
-
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p526x296/261096562_4657066350997404_3337237157533450168_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Vy68Mrm2e-4AX8aHM8E&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=ab68d7f62cd68651ebcaf6bfd8c8d344&oe=61A38CC7)
-
That could well be, though it hinges I think on Cincy winning out. Add in OSU/UM and OSU/OU and you have it.
-
Josh probably feels that if Notre Dame was in the ACC with their only loss to Cincy, they'd have a conference champ game to add SOS and they'd also have a conference championship, which the committee says is worth something
of course, lip service by the committee doesn't always hold true
-
Josh probably feels that if Notre Dame was in the ACC with their only loss to Cincy, they'd have a conference champ game to add SOS and they'd also have a conference championship, which the committee says is worth something
of course, lip service by the committee doesn't always hold true
Yup, If Oklahoma State were to win out, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the committee put ND in over them.
-
Yup, If Oklahoma State were to win out, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the committee put ND in over them.
That would be gross.
-
Uh, you going on about Cincy's schedule
Tell me how good their schedule is.
-
I'm surprised to see that Oklahoma State can play their way in. They'd leapfrog ND, right?
I'm assuming they would. This is where not having a CG can be a blessing or a curse. It is a blessing if the 1-loss Oklahoma team loses the B12CG because then the B12's best is an 11-2 team and ND is sitting there at 11-1 but it is a curse if the 1-loss team wins the B12CG because that will be a quality win no matter how you slice it and that is why I assume that a 12-1 B12 Champion (either OU or OkSU) would leapfrog Notre Dame. Honestly, I don't even see a credible argument for ND in that case. Their loss to Cincy is debatable. I know you agree with me on that but the committee has Cincy at #4 so you have to treat that as a "good" loss but OkSU's loss was to a decent ISU team and OU's loss was to #8 Baylor.
Where ND would really look bad is in quality wins. I think that their only win over a currently ranked team was over #14 UW but either OU or OkSU would have multiple wins over ranked teams if they get to 12-1. Plus the committee supposedly gives a "bonus" for winning a conference which obviously ND can't do and the B12CG winner by definition will have done.
Frankly I think that 11-1 ND vs 11-2 B12 Champion is a close call and I see no way the committee would put 11-1 ND over a 12-1 B12 Champion.
-
I think they'd be in as a 12-1 SEC champ, but not No. 1
Tech is pretty bad though, I think the odds there are quite low.
Agreed. It is a crazy hypothetical but if it happened the tOSU/M winner would have first shot at #1 (by winning the B1GCG). Georgia would simply drop to #2 and could actually end up #1 anyway if the B1G-W winner wins the B1GCG.
-
I'd like to see Oklahoma State get a shot, personally. I'm "OK" if Cincy gets in (especially if the Dawgs get them first round). After UGA and OSU I'm not that impressed with anyone, but Oklahoma State at 12-1 would be pretty impressive, to me.
I'd leave ND out, I guess I changed my mind on them.
-
They have three 3 point wins over:
VaTech
FSU
Toldeo
If they make the CFP I expect a repeat of the past.
Exactly:
- 2020: Bama 31, ND 14 in CFP semi-final - It wasn't that close. ND scored a TD in the final minute against Bama's cheerleaders and mascot.
- 2018: Clemson 30, ND 3 in CFP semi-final -
- 2012: Bama 42, ND 14 in BCSNCG - It wasn't that close. ND didn't score until late in the 3rd quarter down 35-0 and their second TD was half way through the fourth quarter also while trailing by 35 points.
-
Your schedule isn't particularly relevant to how good you are? Are you claiming Alabama would magically suck if they played Cincinnati's schedule?
For about the millionth time, part of the problem is that Cincy wasn't particularly impressive against their crap opponents.
-
In the CFP so far we've had point differentials of:
- 39 (semi)
- 22 (championship)
- 38 (semi)
- 31 (semi)
- 27 (semi)
- 28 (championship)
- 35 (semi)
- 28 (championship)
So let's not argue that we're keeping Cinci out to protect them from a blowout or uncompetitive game.
If Cincy gets Georgia or Ohio State they'll trail by at least 39 at halftime.
-
OSU yes, UGA probably not that bad.
-
Josh probably feels that if Notre Dame was in the ACC with their only loss to Cincy, they'd have a conference champ game to add SOS and they'd also have a conference championship, which the committee says is worth something
of course, lip service by the committee doesn't always hold true
I don't think the committee is flat out lying about a Conference Championship being worth something but it is hard to discern exactly how much it is worth because in the CFP era (with the exception of 2014 B12) all those Conference Championships came with a win over a pretty good team* in an extra game. Thus, it is hard to tell if teams are getting elevated due to the win over the pretty good team or due to winning the Conference Championship because both happen at exactly the same time.
-
Tell me how good their schedule is.
It's great. A great great schedule.
-
For about the millionth time, part of the problem is that Cincy wasn't particularly impressive against their crap opponents.
They have two games within single digits, which is fewer than Ohio State.
-
That would be gross.
I agree.
I still would pretty much expect it to happen.
-
Yup, If Oklahoma State were to win out, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the committee put ND in over them.
I'd be willing to bet against that and, as @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) says:
That would be gross.
Notre Dame's schedule is closer to Cincy's than it is to OU/OkSU, it would be ridiculously gross:
(https://i.imgur.com/psGlPFh.png)
The above uses rankings from CBS (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/cbs-sports-ranking/). Note also that I have assumed that each will make their CG (because if they don't we don't care) and I've taken an educated guess at their CG opponent wherever it isn't already known.
A CG would REALLY help ND here. If they were IN the ACC and won a division they'd be adding #17 Pitt, #21 Wake, #23 NCST, or #26 Clemson. All of those fall between their second (#15 UW) and third (#33 PU) best opponents so it would knock #3-#12 each down a rung which would make ND's schedule much more comparable to OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama.
Both ND and Cincy's top two opponents are comparable to the rest. The weakness of their schedules is at #3 and below, particularly #3-#8 where their third, fourth, etc best opponents are substantially worse than OkSU, OU, tOSU, and Bama:
- #3 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 8-18: For ND and Cincy it is #33 and #30
- #4 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 15-35: For ND and Cincy it is #48 and #59
- #5 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 27-39: For ND and Cincy it is #49 and #64
- #6 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 33-56: For ND and Cincy it is #65 and #83
- #7 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 43-60: For ND and Cincy it is #74 and #90
- #8 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 46-68: For ND and Cincy it is #79 and #99
By the time we get down to #9 and below they are all playing crap opponents so it probably doesn't make any difference. Still, ND and Cincy trail the others at both #9 and #10.
-
I'd be willing to bet against that and, as @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) says:Notre Dame's schedule is closer to Cincy's than it is to OU/OkSU, it would be ridiculously gross:
(https://i.imgur.com/psGlPFh.png)
The above uses rankings from CBS (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/cbs-sports-ranking/). Note also that I have assumed that each will make their CG (because if they don't we don't care) and I've taken an educated guess at their CG opponent wherever it isn't already known.
A CG would REALLY help ND here. If they were IN the ACC and won a division they'd be adding #17 Pitt, #21 Wake, #23 NCST, or #26 Clemson. All of those fall between their second (#15 UW) and third (#33 PU) best opponents so it would knock #3-#12 each down a rung which would make ND's schedule much more comparable to OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama.
Both ND and Cincy's top two opponents are comparable to the rest. The weakness of their schedules is at #3 and below, particularly #3-#8 where their third, fourth, etc best opponents are substantially worse than OkSU, OU, tOSU, and Bama:
- #3 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 8-18: For ND and Cincy it is #33 and #30
- #4 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 15-35: For ND and Cincy it is #48 and #59
- #5 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 27-39: For ND and Cincy it is #49 and #64
- #6 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 33-56: For ND and Cincy it is #65 and #83
- #7 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 43-60: For ND and Cincy it is #74 and #90
- #8 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 46-68: For ND and Cincy it is #79 and #99
By the time we get down to #9 and below they are all playing crap opponents so it probably doesn't make any difference. Still, ND and Cincy trail the others at both #9 and #10.
That's a whole lot of analysis.
And despite all of that, I'd still be surprised to see the committee put in a 1-loss OkState over a 1-loss Notre Dame.
I'd be willing to bet on that for sure.
BUT, it'll be a moot point, because OkState is going to do what they always do, and lose to OU.
-
They have two games within single digits, which is fewer than Ohio State.
First point:
You are cherry picking here with "single digits" and I would strongly argue that the difference between 8 and 9 is a LOT bigger than the difference between 9 and 10 because 8 is potentially a one-score game while 9 and 10 are both two score games.
Second point:
Again for the millionth time, Ohio State played a VASTLY better schedule so it isn't unreasonable to assume that Ohio State should have more close games EVEN IF the teams were equal.
Using your ridiculous cherry-picked distinction, Ohio State has "single-digit" wins over:
- #29 PSU (by 9 points which is two scores)
- #68 UNL (again by 9 points which is two scores)
Then the Buckeyes have a single digit loss to #13 Oregon which was by a TD (ie, one score).
What about Cincy, they have "single digit" wins over:
- #90 Tulsa (by 8 which is one score and Tulsa had the ball at the Cincy 1 yard line with under a minute to play)
- #99 Navy (by 7 which is one score)
Even using your framing, Cincy's two "single digit" wins are VASTLY worse than tOSU's two "single digit" wins because tOSU's came against VASTLY better teams.
-
First point:
You are cherry picking here with "single digits" and I would strongly argue that the difference between 8 and 9 is a LOT bigger than the difference between 9 and 10 because 8 is potentially a one-score game while 9 and 10 are both two score games.
Second point:
Again for the millionth time, Ohio State played a VASTLY better schedule so it isn't unreasonable to assume that Ohio State should have more close games EVEN IF the teams were equal.
Using your ridiculous cherry-picked distinction, Ohio State has "single-digit" wins over:
- #29 PSU (by 9 points which is two scores)
- #68 UNL (again by 9 points which is two scores)
Then the Buckeyes have a single digit loss to #13 Oregon which was by a TD (ie, one score).
What about Cincy, they have "single digit" wins over:
- #90 Tulsa (by 8 which is one score and Tulsa had the ball at the Cincy 1 yard line with under a minute to play)
- #99 Navy (by 7 which is one score)
Even using your framing, Cincy's two "single digit" wins are VASTLY worse than tOSU's two "single digit" wins because tOSU's came against VASTLY better teams.
Sure, but FEWER of them. And they have been dominant in MOST of their games. The idea that they have struggled against their schedule is objectively false.
-
My left nut would be dominant in most of Cincinnati's games.
-
My left nut would be dominant in most of Cincinnati's games.
Son, I have something to tell you about your left nut, right one too.
They're more NAIA than P5 quality
-
:043:
-
:103:
-
😂😂😂