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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 23, 2021, 11:12:10 AM

Title: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 23, 2021, 11:12:10 AM
I'll start with the easy one, the B1G-E:

The 8-0 Buckeyes have already clinched a share of their eighth straight B1G-E Championship and their tenth straight B1G-Divisional Championship.  Ohio State has literally won at least a share of the B1G-E in every year that there has been a B1G-E to win a share of. 

Michigan is a game behind the Buckeyes and will be playing this Saturday for what would be their second B1G-E Championship and first-ever B1GCG appearance.  Their previous divisional title was a co-championship with the Buckeyes inn in 2018 but the Wolverines lost the H2H tiebreaker. 

All other teams have at least two losses and are thus mathematically eliminated from winning any portion of the B1G-E. 

Now on to the B1G-W:
Nobody has clinched anything in the B1G-W yet.  Wisconsin (@MN) and Iowa (@UNL) are the co-leaders at 6-2 but both are playing on the road this weekend against credible opponents.  Meanwhile Minnesota (vsUW) and Purdue (vsIU) are both 5-3 and playing 1at home this weekend. 

Thus there are three games relevant to the outcome of the division so here is a handy-dandy table of the eight potential outcomes:
(https://i.imgur.com/btu2mcK.png)
If Wisconsin wins (scenarios #1-4) they go to the CG.  The only question is whether they go as co-champs with Iowa (#1-2) or as outright champions (#3-4). 

If Wisconsin loses and Iowa wins (scenarios #5-6), the Hawkeyes go to the CG as outright champions. 

If Wisconsin and Iowa both lose that creates a three or four way tie for the B1G-W Championship between the two of them, Minnesota, and possibly the Boilermakers (scenarios #7-8). 

In scenario #7 the first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H where Minnesota and Wisconsin would both be 2-1 while Iowa and Purdue would both be 1-2.  That eliminates the Hawkeyes and Boilermakers.  Then Minnesota and Wisconsin revert to their two-team H2H and Minnesota wins. 

In scenario #8 the three teams all went 1-1 against each other so we move to the next tiebreaker which is divisional record.  The Badgers win that because both of their other losses were to B1G-E teams. 
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 23, 2021, 11:47:47 AM
Note that there are six possible B1GCG match-ups and only one has occurred before:


Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 11:57:21 AM
well, I've seen enough of #1, like most of us.

#2 and #5 are no good for me because of my neighbors - although I am an Iowan and it could be worse.

#4, #5, and #6 are no good because I'm much more of a Buckeye fan than TTUN

guess I'll root for #3 and be disappointed - cause I don't think the paddles and oars are big enough for the boat
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 23, 2021, 12:45:10 PM
A Gopher-OSU rematch of week 1 would be great fun. 
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: Benthere2 on November 23, 2021, 03:01:16 PM
A Gopher-OSU rematch of week 1 would be great fun.
i would rather see a Gopher-Michigan game 

but a lot has to happen for this match up
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 23, 2021, 03:32:33 PM
Would they have to bring the little brown jug? 
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: LittlePig on November 23, 2021, 03:39:03 PM
I got a hypothetical for you Medina.

What if there were no divisions, and the top 2 teams go to the CCG.  Everybody plays the exact same 2021 schedule as they did in reality.  This weekend OSU,MSU, Wisc, Iowa all win so standings look like this.

1.  OSU 9-0
2.  MSU 7-2,  Mich 7-2, Wisc 7-2, Iowa 7-2

Who would go the CCG to play OSU?
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: Abba on November 23, 2021, 04:04:33 PM
I got a hypothetical for you Medina.

What if there were no divisions, and the top 2 teams go to the CCG.  Everybody plays the exact same 2021 schedule as they did in reality.  This weekend OSU,MSU, Wisc, Iowa all win so standings look like this.

1.  OSU 9-0
2.  MSU 7-2,  Mich 7-2, Wisc 7-2, Iowa 7-2

Who would go the CCG to play OSU?

I assume it would be Buckeyes vs. MSU because:

MSU is 1-0 against the others,
Michigan is 1-1 against the others,
Wisconsin is 1-1 against the others,
and Iowa is 0-1 against the others.
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 23, 2021, 04:24:29 PM
I assume it would be Buckeyes vs. MSU because:

MSU is 1-0 against the others,
Michigan is 1-1 against the others,
Wisconsin is 1-1 against the others,
and Iowa is 0-1 against the others.
I concur.  

That said, if we did eliminate divisions my preferred tiebreaker for a situation like @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) laid out where there is a clear #1 and at least two teams tied for #2 would be:

With my proposed tiebreaker the two Michigan schools would be eliminated at step #1 and Wisconsin would beat Iowa at step #2 so we would get tOSU v UW instead of a rematch of a tOSU/MSU game that was played two weeks before the CG and which tOSU won by 49 points.  

I prefer this because I'd rather see a new matchup than a rematch where #1 already beat #2.  IMHO, that rematch is silly because:

In an alternate universe where say Michigan lost to PSU but beat tOSU so the same tie for second place exists my proposal would put Michigan up against the Buckeyes again.  As much as I don't like a rematch of a game played seven days earlier this makes more sense to me.  In this scenario tOSU finishes as the #1 team.  Michigan's win over tOSU "looks like" an upset because they finished a game behind so lets have a rematch and:


Note that I would ONLY apply this tiebreaker if #1 was NOT tied.  Ie, if four teams tied for #1 I wouldn't apply the above to determine #2 after determining #1.  I would ONLY use this where #1 had a better record than the teams tied for #2.  
Title: Re: B1G Divisional races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
Post by: LittlePig on November 23, 2021, 06:26:01 PM
I like Medina's idea for divisionless 2nd place tiebreakers Using similar logic in 2020, 2019, 2018 we would have.

In 2020 OSU was 5-0.  NW and Ind were both 6-1.  Ind's loss was to OSU.  NW's loss to MSU.  NW is 0-0 against OSU.  Ind is 0-1.  NW goes to CCG

2019 is interesting.  OSU 9-0.  PSU, Wisc, Minn all 7-2.  PSU, Wisc both lost to OSU.  Minn did not play OSU.  Minn goes to CCG.  Instead in reality we got a OSU-Wisc rematch.

2018 is more interesting because OSU, Mich, NW are all 8-1.  OSU lost to Purdue.  Mich lost to OSU.  NW lost to Mich.  So I guess OSU and Mich go because NW is 0-1 h2h but on the other hand,  NW never got its shot at OSU that year.  Mich had their shot at OSU and lost.  Why do they get another shot?  And around and around we go. 

I guess some day any team that finishes 8-1 in the Big Ten would probably be in a 12-team playoff although 2018 NW would probably be an exception.