CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2021, 12:20:20 AM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-11-24915/).
Sorry to be so late posting, was busy with the Holiday and all. Anyway, here are the results, 12 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/35bxXME.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/z0rK4YG.png)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/9eUU4Qn.png)
GOTY progression:
- Preseason: #1 tOSU vs #2 UW not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 1: #1 tOSU vs #2 PSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 2: #1 Iowa vs #2 PSU 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 3: #1 PSU vs #2 Iowa 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 4: #1 PSU at #2 tOSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 5: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 6: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 7: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 8: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 9: #1 tOSU vs #2 MSU 11/20 in Columbus
- Week 10: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 11: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 12: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
COTY Progression:
- Tucker with Locksley and Schiano chasing
- Tucker with Schiano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker with Schciano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Frost and Ferentz well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Harbaugh and Bert well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
- Tucker with a slightly less enormous lead than he has had, Brohm, Bert, and Harbaugh well behind.
- Tucker with a huge lead, Brohm, Bert, and Harbaugh well behind.
- Tucker with a huge lead, Brohm, Harbaugh, and Bert well behind.
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1. OSU. - All I can say is WOW! That was a performance for the ages. OSU can clinch the East with win over Mich
2. Mich - it all comes down to the OSU-Mich game. Mich can win the East with win over OSU.
3. Wisc - can clinch the West with a win over Minn. Wisc can also win a 3-way tie at 6-3 between Wisc, Minn and Iowa.
4. Purdue - can not win the West but has chance to finish in 4 -way tie for first at 6-3 if Purdue beats Ind, Iowa loses, and Wisc loses.
5. Iowa - can clinch the West if Iowa beats Neb on Black Friday and if Wisc loses to Minn on Sat. If Iowa loses to Neb, Iowa is eliminated.
6. MSU - has been eliminated . Can not win the East. Can finish in tie for 2nd with Mich if MSU beats PSU and Mich loses.
7. PSU - best they can do is finish 4th in East. Could get a decent bowl if they can beat MSU in final
8. Minn - can win the West if Minn beats Wisc, Iowa loses, and Purdue wins. In other words, Minn would win a 4-way tie at 6-3 between Minn, Wisc, Iowa, Purdue.
9. ILL - now has 7 losses but I am hearing a rumor that ILL might have a chance at a bowl anyway if they beat NW, but its complicated.
10. Neb - the little engine that could not. Just can not get over that hill. May be the unluckiest team since 2013 NW. Neb has no chance at a bowl, but has a chance to spoil Iowa's season on Black Friday
11. MD - winner of MD/Rut game goes to a bowl. Loser stays home for the holidays.
12. Rut - see above
13. NW - is now officially playing for pride
14. Ind - one of the biggest collapses in recent Big Ten history. Probably the worst since the 2016 Mich ST collapse.
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Purdue
5. Iowa
6. Michigan State
7. Penn State
8. Minnesota
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Maryland
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana
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1. Ohio State: No doubts on offense. The defense also came to play, which was a welcome sight to these eyes trained on years of Tressel ball.
2. Michigan: Didn't watch their game, but they are a very sound team in all phases. Buckeyes will have to practice covering running backs out of the backfield, too.
3. Wisconsin: Got their close Nebraska game out of the way, in great shape to win the West. Braelon Allen is a revelation at running back. Talk about the studs at running back in the B1G. I think these top three teams are really close together.
4. Penn State: Can't stay healthy, but hell I have to put someone here and they seem like the fourth best team to me.
5. Purdue: Developed into a very solid team.
6. Michigan State: Limping to a finish.
7. Iowa: 33 points, 255 yards, an Iowa special.
8. Minnesota: I originally had them fourth, if that tells you how difficult I find this middle group.
9. Nebraska: Maybe the toughest team to rank of all time.
10. Illinois: Really a pretty solid outing in Bert's first season.
11. Rutgers: Game of the Century coming up.
12. Maryland: They should not be as putrid on defense as they are.
13. Northwestern: Let's see if they are good next season.
14. Indiana: Rough year
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1 OSU
2 Michigan
3 Wisconsin
4 Iowa
5 MSU
6 Minnesota
7 Purdue
8 PSU
9 Nebraska
10 Maryland
11 Illinois
12 Rutgers
13 Northwestern
14 Indiana
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ap-top-25-poll-ohio-state-leaps-over-alabama-and-cincinnati-for-no-2-in-new-college-football-rankings/
AP Top 25 poll: Ohio State leaps over Alabama and Cincinnati for No. 2 in new college football rankings
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9. Nebraska: Maybe the toughest team to rank of all time.
I lose my motivation to contribute to this thread
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You're an honorary Buckeye this week
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Michigan St
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Rutgers
- Northwestern
- Indiana
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At this point in my opinion the Buckeyes are #1 and will remain so even if they lose in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes and Wolverines have six common opponents, other five B1G-E teams and Nebraska. Here are the comparative results against those six organized by last week's ranking:
- vs #3 MSU: tOSU was 53 points better, 49 point win vs 4 point loss
- vs #5 PSU: tOSU was 5 points better, 9 point win vs 4 point win
- vs #10 UNL: tOSU was 6 points better, 9 point win vs 3 point win
- vs #11 RU: tOSU was 32 points better, 39 point win vs 7 point win
- vs #12 UMD: tOSU was 8 points better, 49 point win vs 41 point win
- vs #14 IU tOSU was 25 points better, 47 point win vs 22 point
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(https://i.imgur.com/oPOMqLo.png)
I am smitten by tOSU, but not so much that if Michigan would defeat tOSU, I would continue to rank tOSU #1. I don't expect Michigan to defeat Ohio State so I am ranking Ohio State #1, this week.
I was not that impressed with Iowa after seeing them in person. Levar Woods, special teams coach, and Phil Parker, defensive coach deserve all the coaching credit for Iowa's 9-2 record. This week, the O-Line played better in rush blocking than they did all season even with the starting left tackle out with injury (or maybe because).
(https://i.imgur.com/39Jrw8E.jpg)
I had 2nd row seating and could watch the line play. As you can see here, it is not all the O-Line fault. This should have been a 90-yard touchdown run, but Tyler Goodson did not cut left.
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I am smitten by tOSU, but not so much that if Michigan would defeat tOSU, I would continue to rank tOSU #1.
FWIW:This is not an Ohio State thing or a #1 thing, it is a late season thing. In at least three of this weekend's match ups I would keep the higher ranked team ahead even if they lost:
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At this point in my opinion the Buckeyes are #1 and will remain so even if they lose in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes and Wolverines have six common opponents, other five B1G-E teams and Nebraska. Here are the comparative results against those six organized by last week's ranking:
- vs #3 MSU: tOSU was 53 points better, 49 point win vs 4 point loss
- vs #5 PSU: tOSU was 5 points better, 9 point win vs 4 point win
- vs #10 UNL: tOSU was 6 points better, 9 point win vs 3 point win
- vs #11 RU: tOSU was 32 points better, 39 point win vs 7 point win
- vs #12 UMD: tOSU was 8 points better, 49 point win vs 41 point win
- vs #14 IU tOSU was 25 points better, 47 point win vs 22 point
Hang the banner
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Last week in parenthesis
- OHIO STATE (1) - so much for being worried this WR group was going to be wasted on a freshman quarterback
- MICHIGAN (2) - and here we go again
- WISCONSIN (4) - we are beyond judging teams for close wins over a 3 win Nebraska team
- MICHIGAN STATE (3) - granted if none of the guys who got injured against Ohio State come back, they should be lower
- PENN STATE (5) - not pretty, but pulled away late
- PURDUE (6) - see above
- IOWA (7) - wasn't sure this team was capable of giving up 23 and winning
- MINNESOTA (8) - Indiana is an absolute mess
- NEBRASKA (9) - same story
- RUTGERS (10) - more blah offense
- MARYLAND (11) - defense might actually be getting worse
- ILLINOIS (12) - how do you shut down Penn State and Minnesota, and get torched by Iowa?
- NORTHWESTERN (13) - had three quarters of fight
- INDIANA (14) - it appears this team has completely quit on Tom Allen
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Last week in parenthesis
- IOWA (7) - wasn't sure this team was capable of giving up 23 and winning
Iowa scored 7-points on a kick return, and 7-points on a pick-six, so there is truth in what you say.
Iowa is capable of scoring in ways other than on offense, but scoring on special teams and defense will not happen every week. This team needs to score more on offense if it intends to beat Nebraska.
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never fear, the Huskers gave up a TD on the opening KO to the Badgers
Martinez has great experience giving up pick sixes
Iowa will get theirs - SOMEHOW
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Purdue
5. Iowa
6. Michigan State
7. Penn State
8. Minnesota
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois
11. Maryland
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana
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Hang the banner
This is a power ranking. It isn't about hanging the banner, who earned what, or who "should" go to the CG. A power ranking is about which team we think is best. With respect to three of this weekend's games I've already seen enough:
- Illinois/Northwestern: I've seen enough to say that I think that Illinois is the better team. If Northwestern wins this weekend that will not change my opinion. It will simply be an upset, those happen.
- Indiana/Purdue: I've seen enough to say that I think that Purdue is the better team. If Indiana wins this weekend that will not change my opinion. It will simply be an upset, those happen.
- Ohio State/Michigan: I've seen enough to say that I think that Ohio State is the better team. If Michigan wins this weekend that will not change my opinion. It will simply be an upset, those happen.
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Not my ranking, ranking based on relative outcome against each conference opponent:
- 1.125 Ohio State
- 2.563 Wisconsin
- 2.571 Nebraska
- 3.563 Penn State
- 3.625 Purdue
- 3.750 Michigan
- 4.375 Iowa
- 4.438 Minnesota
- 5.222 Illinois
- 5.313 Michigan State
- 5.688 Rutgers
- 6.688 Northwestern
- 6.688 Indiana
- 7.063 Maryland
Method:
Each team's eight conference opponents are ranked 1->8 based on best performance against that team to worst performance against that team. Where there are ties the tied teams get the average of the rankings they are tied for (ie, two teams tied for 1st/2nd best each get 1.5). Then the rankings listed above are the average of each teams' eight rankings.
Example:
- Ohio State is #1 against MSU ahead of #2 Purdue
- Ohio State is #1 against PSU ahead of #2 M
- Ohio State is #1 against PU ahead of #2 UW
- Ohio State is #1 against MN ahead of #2 IL
- Ohio State is #1 against UNL ahead of #2 IL
- Ohio State is #2 against RU behind #1 UW and ahead of #3 PSU
- Ohio State is #1 against UMD ahead of #2 M
- Ohio State is #1 against IU ahead of #2 RU
- The average of seven #1's and one #2 is 1.125
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 I do not think it is close.
- Michigan - 2,2,3,2,2,3,3,3,3,5,5,5 I have them ahead of UW mostly because they beat UW by three TD's but that said I wouldn't be very confident that they would beat UW on a neutral field now.
- Wisconsin - 3,3,4,4,5,5,5,7,4,3,3,2 I've been saying for weeks that Wisconsin was better than their record. At this point in the season I think they wish they could have some early losses back.
- Penn State - 4,4,5,6,3,4,4,2,2,2,2,3 Odd team. They don't "feel like" a .500 team to me but they are now 4-4 in the league. Their nine point loss to Ohio State ties Nebraska for the closest any B1G team has gotten to the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions did it in the Horseshoe. Their other three losses were by four points, by a FG, and in the NINTH OT. Penn State is three plays from 10-1/7-1 but . . . They aren't 10-1/7-1, they are 6-4/3-4.
- Michigan State - 5,5,2,5,6,6,6,8,7,9,9,11 The Spartans aren't nearly as bad as they looked on Saturday.
- Iowa - 6,6,6,3,4,2,2,4,5,4,4,4 Another odd team. They'll probably gain 150 yards against Nebraska yet manage to score 24 points and win 24-17.
- Purdue - 7,7,8,9,8,12,12,11,11,11,11,10 The Boilermakers have a good chance to finish a very respectable 6-3/8-4. Purdue hasn't won eight games in a season since 2007 and they haven't won nine since 2003.
- Minnesota - 8,8,7,7,7,10,10,9,6,8,6,7 Looked good!
- Maryland - 9,9,9,10,9,8,8,5,8,6,7,12 It seems like eons ago now but once upon a time Maryland was 4-0 and on the cusp of being ranked with a good looking win over WVU on their resume. They were a popular upset pick for a Friday night home game against #5 Iowa. In fact they held a 7-3 lead over #5 Iowa at the end of the first quarter. Since then not much has gone right for the Terps. Iowa exploded for 31 unanswered points in the second quarter and an overall run of 41 unanswered points before Maryland scored a meaningless TD late in the third quarter while down 44-7. They had a week off to get things figured out then somehow looked even worse against Ohio State and their only win since September was a three point home win over an Indiana team that Rutgers demolished in Bloomington. Now they face Rutgers in the bowl-eligibility bowl!
- Nebraska - 10,10,10,11,10,7,7,12,12,14,14,9 Another game another one-score loss. Nebraska's close losses to make it "feel" like they are better than this but 3-8/1-7 keeps them here.
- Illinois - 11,11,13,8,12,13,13,13,13,13,13,14 They got Iowa'd.
- Rutgers - 12,13,12,14,9,9,9,6,9,7,8,13 Heading to the bowl-eligibility bowl!
- Northwestern - 13,14,14,13,14,14,14,14,14,12,12,8 Just not their year.
- Indiana - 14,12,11,12,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,6 For anyone keeping track, the Hoosiers lost to Cincinnati by two TD's. In the B1G they have bigger losses to tOSU (47), RU (35), IA (28), PSU (24), M (22), and MN (21).
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Not my ranking, ranking based on relative outcome against each conference opponent:
- 1.125 Ohio State
- 2.563 Wisconsin
- 2.571 Nebraska
- 3.563 Penn State
- 3.625 Purdue
- 3.750 Michigan
- 4.375 Iowa
I'd rather live in this world
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- Iowa - 6,6,6,3,4,2,2,4,5,4,4,4 Another odd team. They'll probably gain 150 yards against Nebraska yet manage to score 24 points and win 24-17
- Indiana - 14,12,11,12,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,6 For anyone keeping track, the Hoosiers lost to Cincinnati by two TD's. In the B1G they have bigger losses to tOSU (47), RU (35), PSU (24), M (22), and MN (21).
And Indiana also loss to Iowa 34-6
Yes, Iowa fans are very confused with this obsession everybody else has with yards per game. Yards don't matter. Points matter! The other team can have as many yards as they want as long as they don't get in the endzone ar the end of the drive. Kick return TDs and pick-6 TDs count the same points as offensive TD's
Am I being serious? AM I being sarcastic? I honestly don't know anymore.
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Medina,
As a group, do we have more than the usual movement in polling week-to-week this year, compared to past seasons??
It seems like it, but I don't keep track of that movement from year-to-year. Even at the top it was unsettled the first few weeks.
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State
5. Penn State
6. Purdue
7. Iowa
8. Minnesota
9. Maryland
10. Illinois
11. Nebraska
12. Northwestern
13. Rutgers
14. Indiana
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- Ohio State - Didn't see that performance coming. I hope they play that well this weekend, we'll see.
- Michigan - Looked good against a fair to poor Maryland team. Surprised they showed some trick plays. Perhaps they are trying to force tOSU to waste time preparing for them.
- Wisconsin - Right now, I believe they may be the 2nd best team in the B1G. But will leave them here for now.
- Purdue - Not sure I should leave them this high, but if everyone is healthy, I think they should beat the teams below them on a neutral field.
- Michigan State - Let's see if they can bounce back after getting their doors blown off.
- Penn State - With a healthy Clifford, I believe they are better than the rest. If not, I don't know.
- Iowa - Great defense and special teams. If they only had an offense.
- Minnesota - Best of the rest.
- Rutgers - Not sure why, but I have a feeling they could beat the teams below them. They have 1 last chance this week.
- Maryland - Put up a fight to UM, but just didn't have enough in the tank.
- Illinois - Who knows.
- Nebraska - I think they are better than this but at some point, you have to win one of those close games.
- Northwestern - Their down year. If trends continue, they will be competing for the West next season.
- Indiana - As someone else said and I believe I said last week, this team has quit.
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This is a power ranking. It isn't about hanging the banner, who earned what, or who "should" go to the CG. A power ranking is about which team we think is best.
and you have Nebraska ranked #10?
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Medina,
As a group, do we have more than the usual movement in polling week-to-week this year, compared to past seasons??
It seems like it, but I don't keep track of that movement from year-to-year. Even at the top it was unsettled the first few weeks.
I honestly don't know because I don't keep the old spreadsheets. Each week I update and then for each new year I just update and start over.
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And Indiana also loss to Iowa 34-6
Not sure how I missed that, it has been added.
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and you have Nebraska ranked #10?
Nebraska is a hard team to rank from my perspective. I see five good games:
- 9 point loss to #1 tOSU
- 3 point loss to #2 M
- OT loss to #4 MSU
- 7 point loss to #3 UW
- 49 point win over #13 NU
That is only 1-4 but the win is the biggest win of the year over NU and the four losses are all close and to the top four teams in the league. Based on that, I'd rank them #5 because they appear to be almost as good as the top-4.
Then you have three bad games:
- 5 point loss to #5 PU
- 7 point loss to #8 MN
- 8 point loss to #10 IL
Based on that I guess #11?
They have a brutal schedule. They play eight of the top-9 teams in the league, missing only Penn State. Then they miss four of the bottom five teams in the league, playing only NU whom they obliterated.
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
LoL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RIHFL105XA
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schedule strength #4, not sure if that goes up after the Iowa game
a "good" loss to Oklahoma as well
I agree, tough to rank. Just interesting with the "power ranking" definition
apparently Vegas thought the Huskers were the better team than the 9-2 Hawks wehn the line came out
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
I think you are just being obtuse. If so you don't need to answer. If you are actually serious, could you please explain which of these games makes you think that Michigan is a better team:
(https://i.imgur.com/wFGwaEn.png)
The teams have six common opponents and the Buckeyes had a larger margin of victory against all six.
- The Buckeyes scored more points against five of the six with Michigan scoring more against Nebraska. Also note that Michigan had just six more points against Nebraska which is similar to Ohio State's seven more points against Maryland. Against the other four Ohio State's scored 12, 23, 25, and 32 more points. Ie, this is not close. Ohio State scores LOTS more points.
- Ohio State's much maligned defense actually gave up less points against half of the common opponents. To be fair the teams gave up about the same number of points against UMD and exactly the same against RU and IU. Michigan gave up less against PSU but only by a difference of a TD whereas tOSU gave up 12 less against UNL and 30 less against MSU.
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Composite computer rankings - 78 computers (last week in parentheses)
- Georgia (1)
- OHIO STATE (2)
- Alabama (3)
- MICHIGAN (4)
- Notre Dame (5)
- Oklahoma State (6)
- Cincinnati (7)
- Oklahoma (11)
- WISCONSIN (9)
- Baylor (14)
- Ole Miss (10)
- IOWA (15)
- MICHIGAN STATE (8)
- Texas A&M (16)
- Utah (23)
- Wake Forest (12)
- PENN STATE (19)
- Pittsburgh (18)
- Clemson (-)
- Oregon (13)
- NC State (22)
- BYU (17)
- UTSA (20)
- PURDUE (24)
- Houston (-)
- 37. Minnesota (38)
- 64. Nebraska (62)
- 70. Rutgers (58)
- 71. Maryland (66)
- 73. Illinois (70)
- 93. Indiana (91)
94. Northwestern (93)
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computers have the Hard luck Huskers at #9
this guy has them at #10
Big Ten power rankings after Week 12: Ohio State-Michigan set for 1-2 showdown
By NICK KOSKO
https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/LongFormArticle/Big-Ten-power-rankings-after-Week-12-Ohio-State-Michigan-set-for-1-2-showdown-175950840/#175950840_1 (https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/LongFormArticle/Big-Ten-power-rankings-after-Week-12-Ohio-State-Michigan-set-for-1-2-showdown-175950840/#175950840_1)
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I only have 11 voters . . .
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fans of these teams may be losing interest.............
PURDUE
Houston
Minnesota
Nebraska
Rutgers
Maryland
Illinois
Indiana
Northwestern
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fans of these teams may be losing interest.............
Houston
?
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hah, any cougars lurking???
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Penn State
7. Purdue
8. Minnesota
9. Nebraska
10. Rutgers
11. Illinois
12. Maryland
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana
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2. Wisconsin
I almost moved them up to #2 myself based on the "better team right now" criteria but I want to see how they do in the Ax game first. I was tentatively planning on moving Wisconsin up to #2 this week but then Michigan did a little better than I expected against Maryland and Wisconsin didn't do quite as well as I expected against Nebraska so I held off.
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1. OSU. - All I can say is WOW! That was a performance for the ages. OSU can clinch the East with win over Mich
Reminded me of the the 2019 CCG game vs. Wisconsin.
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Reminded me of the the 2019 CCG game vs. Wisconsin.
2014?
I was thinking that if we do get OSU-Wisc IV in the title game that other than 2014, the others were very competitive. 2019 was very scary with the Badgers taking a 14 point lead and 2017 was a continual sweat to a 6 point win for the Buckeyes.
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Results posted, votes through @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) , sorry to be so late with the results.
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With the current results posted, it validated something I thought I might see once I looked at everyone's rankings.
Leading the StdDev metric is Purdue.
Drop the high and low, and leading the StdDev metric is... Purdue.
Lot of polarization in where the Boilers are ranked...
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With the current results posted, it validated something I thought I might see once I looked at everyone's rankings.
Leading the StdDev metric is Purdue.
Drop the high and low, and leading the StdDev metric is... Purdue.
Lot of polarization in where the Boilers are ranked...
Relative to prior weeks, PU's std deviations aren't that high I don't think.
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Relative to prior weeks, PU's std deviations aren't that high I don't think.
Probably, but I would expect the standard deviations to narrow as you get deeper into the season, because we have more information and data points.
IMHO [note: this is without really deeply looking at the actual posters or their rankings] the difference is there are two groups:
- Those who think that Purdue should be ahead of Iowa and Michigan State based on H2H and are excusing the loss to Minnesota.
- Those who think that Purdue beating Iowa and MSU were aberrations and that they can't actually believe that Purdue is the better team.
I get both of those arguments, quite frankly. I don't even know that I'd be ranking them above Iowa and MSU, personally. I think Purdue was a bad matchup for both teams, but not necessarily that I'd say that against the same 12 P5 teams, picked at random, that Purdue would outperform either...