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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on November 17, 2021, 09:57:55 AM

Title: Purdue (5-3, 7-4) vs. Northwestern (1-7, 3-8) Post Game
Post by: ELA on November 17, 2021, 09:57:55 AM
Purdue Boilermakers (4-3, 6-4) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (1-6, 3-7)
NOON - Chicago, IL - BTN
If the key to football is being able to run the ball and stop the run, well, then, I don't know what to say about this one.  Purdue is dead last in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (64.7) and yards per carry (2.2), in conference games.  Worst in the conference by 20 ypg and 0.7 ypc.  The Northwestern defense matches them with the conference's worst run defense at 267.3 ypg and 6.0 ypc, worst by 80 ypg and 1.1 ypc.  What I am interested to see is whether Purdue even attempts it.  Only five teams in the FBS are running the ball less frequently than the Boilermakers, and recently, it's gotten even more extreme.  Over the past three weeks, only Purdue and Nevada are averaging over 50 pass attempts per game.  But the Wildcats are giving up nearly 56% of their yards on the ground, second in the nation only to Washington.  I have faith that the Purdue offense can score some on just about anyone, the question is whether their defense can do enough.  Against Michigan State, they did.  Against Ohio State, no.  While the Wisconsin defense can make anyone look bad, they have been at times gettable through the air, and yet Andrew Marty did absolutely nothing against them last week.  He completed just 10-18 for 100 yards, but what is most concerning is how careless he has been with the ball in his last two games.  Yes, he has only seen action in a few games, but this isn't some freshman you are building around, he's a 5th year guy, and yet in his last two games, Marty has 6 interceptions, and has taken 5 sacks.  I think the Wildcats will put up some yards, but Kerrigan will make enough big plays, and the Purdue passing game is rolling right now.
PURDUE 35, NORTHWESTERN 20



Title: Re: Purdue (4-3, 6-4) vs. Northwestern (1-6, 3-7) Game Week
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2021, 06:17:41 PM
Gotta say I'm really nervous about this one. 

As a Purdue fan, we're looking up at 8 wins and don't see how either NU or IU should be able to screw that up. We're looking better than we have in years, and knocked off two pretty damn good teams in Iowa and MSU. The only "bad" loss we've got is a monsoon game against Minny, and let's be honest, 4 1/2 years of Brohm have shown us that Purdue can't play in those conditions, so I somewhat feel like the weather beat us as much as Minny did. 

And yet...

This is a neutral game at Wrigley. Northwestern looks terrible, but they're a team that finished 7-2 against P5 competition just a year ago. Fitz is not the sort of coach that will have a team quit on him IMHO, so I assume they're not going to lay down and just take the L. 

My Purdue Chicken Little-ism is getting the best of me and I'm starting to suspect a gut punch on Saturday. 
Title: Re: Purdue (5-3, 7-4) vs. Northwestern (1-7, 3-8) Post Game
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 21, 2021, 10:38:56 AM
This game had a much bigger final score differential than the teams really played on the field. 

NU was able to run on Purdue. Being able to run on Purdue and not be game-scripted into forced throws is the way to destroy Purdue. If Purdue can get you behind the sticks into obvious passing situations, their aggressiveness is disruptive to an offense and they can cause drives to stall. If you can run the ball and stay ahead of down-and-distance, Purdue hasn't shown they can stop the run well enough to get you off the field. 

Purdue started the games with drives that ended in missed FG, FG, FG. When the Purdue defense was fresh, that was a 6-0 lead that could almost just as easily have been 21-0 and put Northwestern away early. Instead, Purdue went into the half up 13-7 and NU was able to keep running the ball. 

Purdue got lucky coming out of halftime. The kicker was instructed to kick the ball off normally. His plant foot slipped on the [garbage Wrigley] turf and he barely made contact with the ball... BUT it hit the front line blocker (NU didn't have the "hands team" out) and a Purdue player fell on it for an unintentional onside kick. Purdue scored, failed the 2PT conversion, and then NU just marched right down the field. 

There were two turning points in the game. 



From there Purdue kicked another FG, and it became a 3-score game with less than two minutes left to play. That was the ballgame.

Anyone not watching the game will see the 32-14 final score and think Purdue won easily. For me, I think the trepidation I had posted about pregame was warranted--Purdue didn't execute well offensively in the first half, allowed NU to hang around, and well into the second half this game was not decided. Then NU went away from what was working (the run) in critical moments, and Purdue's defense made them pay. 

Title: Re: Purdue (5-3, 7-4) vs. Northwestern (1-7, 3-8) Post Game
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2021, 11:43:10 AM
Any notion who Purdue might face in the bowl?  They strike me as a dangerous team, one that also could get blown out.
Title: Re: Purdue (5-3, 7-4) vs. Northwestern (1-7, 3-8) Post Game
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 21, 2021, 12:10:03 PM
Any notion who Purdue might face in the bowl?  They strike me as a dangerous team, one that also could get blown out.
I don't bother prognosticating on that. Too many moving parts.

But I agree. They're very matchup dependent. A team with a dominant run game can go sideways for Purdue. A team that Purdue can force to throw is the good matchup, but it can also go either way due to big plays either way.
Title: Re: Purdue (5-3, 7-4) vs. Northwestern (1-7, 3-8) Post Game
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2021, 12:18:06 PM
I'd watch for the drama.  If we presume they finish 8-4 and face an 8-4ish SEC team, it could be Miss State or Arky, and yes too many variables involved.

Those two teams are almost polar opposites.  Arky beat them 31-28.