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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on November 08, 2021, 07:24:10 AM

Title: #6 Michigan (6-1, 9-1) at Penn State (3-4, 6-4) Post Game
Post by: Temp430 on November 08, 2021, 07:24:10 AM
Kickoff is at Noon on ABC.  The Nitts are a one point favorite at home.  Michigan sustained several notable injuries against Indiana: Henning, Germon Green, Corum, and Anthony. 
Title: Re: #7 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2021, 07:26:43 AM
Good for UM it's not at night, but looks like a heavy lift to me, probably low scoring, I'll venture 20-16 Nitts.
Title: Re: #7 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 08, 2021, 02:54:32 PM
Good for UM it's not at night, but looks like a heavy lift to me, probably low scoring, I'll venture 20-16 Nitts.
Yeah, I don't know. I'm oddly confident in Michigan in this one. And believe me- I'm almost never confident in them in anything. Michigan is catching a break that the game is at noon. That's a way different crowd at noon then night. Happy Valley at night is a complete nightmare.

Penn State point blank just does not have a pass game like OSU's that can shred a secondary in half from every which way or a run game like MSU has with that stud tailback KW3- and that seems to be Michigan's achilles heel right now- their run defense. Their young LB's over-pursue and get caught with their pants down on misdirection run plays- which can lead to big gains vs teams that run the ball well. MSU has an elite RB- and he was able to expose their LB's and pop some long runs. I don't see Penn State being able to do this.

Penn State on the other hand has a run game that kinda sorta stinks. Penn State ranks tied for 122nd nationally with 29 runs of 10-plus yards. They rank 119th in the nation in yards per rush (3.2) and 117th in rush yards per game (107).

They key for Michigan will be to double Dotson at all times and not let him break the game open. Because he absolutely can. He is the one guy they have on offense that can flat out beat anybody man to man. If they aren't putting a safety over top on him and doubling him every play they are insane- because he has shown he is the one guy on that entire offense that can make a play on anybody consistently. Don't let him beat you- and you have a great shot at slowing down Penn State.

Conversely, Penn State's rush defense has been pretty bad giving up THREE HUNDRED AND SIXTY rushing yards to freaking Illinois at home in Happy Valley. Penn State is giving up just about 140 yards rushing a game. And Michigan wants to rush the football first and foremost. They will run, run, run right at Penn State.

And pretty much everyone has been able to run on Penn State- Wisconsin was able to run on them (would've had 200+ yards rushing if not for all Mertz' sacks), Illinois ran a party on them with 360 yards, Auburn ran for 190 on them, Ohio State ran for 160+ on them, shit even Iowa who can't run the ball ran for 110 on them. Really the only team that wasn't able to run wild on them was Maryland and Indiana- and well Maryland and Indiana kinda f*ckin suck.

Cade will have to play a mistake free game and not turn it over- he seems pretty good at that- Michigan will have to run the ball- they seem pretty good at that- and Michigan's DB's will have to double Dotson basically every snap and they will need their pass rush duo of Hutch & Ojabo to show up like they have been showing up all year long.
Title: Re: #7 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on November 08, 2021, 04:56:23 PM
Hopefully it's close Michigan won close games in '05,'06,'07.In '08/'09 the Ninnies blasted them and won by 10 in'10.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on November 10, 2021, 06:56:10 AM
I hope Michigan gets TE Erik All this week because they'll need him.  Both of Michigan's starting guards, Keegan and Zinter, were back for Indiana and played the whole game.  If Corum is still out with a sprain Haskin's is more than capable of carrying the load.  I think Illinois coined how to beat Penn State: on the ground with lots of big bodies, a Michigan staple this year. 

Looks like there's a chance of rain Saturday afternoon in State College.  Hopefully the Nitt students stay in their cozy dorm rooms and sleep in.

Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on November 10, 2021, 07:06:56 AM
This photo seems more appropriate this year:


(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/1b/a6/1b/1ba61b3252662a66a66c8cda4753936e.jpg)
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on November 10, 2021, 08:19:22 AM
Looks like there's a chance of rain Saturday afternoon in State College.  Hopefully the Nitt students stay in their cozy dorm rooms and sleep in.
Hopefully they remember the 9 straight losses from '97-'07.Where the hell are BBTS and GeoLion? Need a couple of Ninnies to stir up the froth.How the hell is a good pissing match ever going to get off the ground?
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Geolion91 on November 10, 2021, 08:28:34 AM
Hard to start a pissing match when your bladder is empty.


There's no way Penn State wins this game.

MDot's analysis above is spot on.  Illinois showed the world how to beat us.  If we had not lost our best DT early in the Iowa game, I think our run defense would be loads better.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 10, 2021, 08:57:32 AM
Hard to start a pissing match when your bladder is empty.


There's no way Penn State wins this game.

MDot's analysis above is spot on.  Illinois showed the world how to beat us.  If we had not lost our best DT early in the Iowa game, I think our run defense would be loads better.
I wouldn’t say that. Penn State can obviously win the game- Michigan’s coach is still Jim Harbaugh and their passing game is still Stone Age.

I think the game will come down to rushing the football. Penn State will need to run the ball on Michigan just enough to slow down their edge rushers and they’ll need to stop Michigan from running a party on them for like 200+.

I am curious to see how healthy Clifford is- if he’s 100% healthy that helps PSU’s chances A LOT obviously. If he’s still banged up and not able to escape the pocket and run around like he was doing before the injury- could be a long day for him because Hutchison & Ojabo have like 16 or 17 sacks combined and like 80 QB pressures combined. Both of these guys have been stud pass rushers all season long- and both of them looking like future 1st round NFL draft picks.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 10, 2021, 09:10:54 AM
I don’t think it can be over-stated just how huge a break it is for Michigan to not have to play them at night. Noon game vs night game is at least a 6 point swing imo. I don’t think there is a tougher place to play than Beaver stadium at night. 

Add 3 to Penn State and take away 3 from Michigan for a night game. It’s a huge break for Michigan that they are playing at noon. 
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Geolion91 on November 10, 2021, 10:53:54 AM
Its probably a noon game because Penn State's offense is too painful to watch.

Clifford should be healthy, he looked fine in the Maryland game.

I'm not confident that we can run the ball enough to affect Michigan's edge rushers.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2021, 10:59:37 AM
we all know it's a noon game because the conference is protecting their prize pupil

8-1 with a slight chance to upset Ohio St. needs to be protected
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 10, 2021, 11:03:15 AM
we all know it's a noon game because the conference is protecting their prize pupil

8-1 with a slight chance to upset Ohio St. needs to be protected
the conferences don't pick the time slots- they gave up that power during the negotiations for their new contracts with the networks I believe.

It's just a luck of the draw. The networks get to pick the time slots they want. 
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 10, 2021, 11:04:51 AM
Hopefully they remember the 9 straight losses from '97-'07.Where the hell are BBTS and GeoLion? Need a couple of Ninnies to stir up the froth.How the hell is a good pissing match ever going to get off the ground?
Out of curiosity, why are you favoring Michigan here?  

From my perspective, I want a PSU win for two reasons:

Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2021, 11:05:05 AM
right
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 10, 2021, 04:00:42 PM
ESPN Draft guru Mel Kiper puts David Ojabo on his updated NFL Draft big board at #10 overall. Hutchinson was already in the top 5. 

With the way Rashan Gary has come on this year and the way Kwity Paye has been playing as a rookie, Michigan is quickly making a case to be in that convo for EDGE U.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: ELA on November 11, 2021, 08:41:38 AM
Winovich had a nice pick for New England, but I haven't seen much of him otherwise
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on November 11, 2021, 09:00:08 AM
Out of curiosity, why are you favoring Michigan here? 
"SIGH" neither,meteor strike perhaps - just want a good pissing match
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: ELA on November 11, 2021, 10:22:36 AM

#6 Michigan Wolverines (5-1, 8-1) at Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3, 6-3)
NOON - State College, PA - ABC
Penn State saw life without Sean Clifford.  They saw life with a well under 100% Sean Clifford.  James Franklin decided that was no way to live.  While he has benefitted from supreme talents during his time in Happy Valley, with Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders, this is now two years in a row where the Nittany Lions have been unable to run the ball.  Last year the running back room was gutted by injuries, so it was explainable.  This year?  Now we've got a problem.  It was clear from the second half of the Iowa game, and the entirety of the Illinois game, that this offense simply cannot work without working through Sean Clifford.  James Franklin has adjusted accordingly.  On the season, Penn State is only running the ball about 44.8% of the time, in the bottom 20 nationally.  Only above Maryland and Purdue in conference.  Recently, they've dialed that down to just 38.5% over the past two games, sixth lowest in the FBS.  I'm not sure how the defense holds up, if Michigan pounds away with Hassan Haskins for 4 and 5 yard chunks, on 12 play drives, holding the ball for 8 minutes, and then the offense comes out throwing the ball around, and going three and out, or hitting Jahan Dotson for quick touchdowns, as they beat Maryland with.  The biggest concern for the Michigan offense is the health of their running backs, which was so deep going into the year, that Zach Charbonnet left to go star for UCLA.  After Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards got banged up, it's unclear the status of either going into this week, and exactly how much of the workload Haskins can handle.  Haskins tied a caeer high with 27 carries last week against Indiana, but he didn't have any meaningful 4th quarter carries.  Behind him is Tavierre Dunlap perhaps?  The freshman got a pair of carries last week, but has only 7 for his career, the previous 5 coming against Northern Illinois, when he did have a 28 yard run.  The Nittany Lions run defense held their own against an Ohio State offense which is second in the conference with 5.3 ypc.  Ohio State's run chart looks like a Barry Sanders log; 2, -1, 4, 2, 2, 72.  Michigan is going to look much more like Illinois, 5, 6, 4, 7, 5, etc...  If Corum is healthy, I think Michigan can win by two scores, but if he's out, in Happy Valley, although not at night, I think the Nittany Lions hang around, but give up too many 3rd down conversions.
MICHIGAN 23, PENN STATE 21

Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on November 11, 2021, 10:33:06 AM
Coach Harbaugh said the injured are probable for Saturday but I have my doubts about Corum returning.  Best case scenario is the injury to his foot was a mild sprain of some kind and recovery after just one week still seems unlikely.    Michigan is now favored by one and the weather forecast looks like it'll be a wet Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 10:35:43 AM
Edwards should be close to 100%. Not sure on Corum.

That’s pretty much what I was thinking- PSU’s entire offense will be predicated on hitting big plays to Dotson- who is one of the best WR’s in all of college football. They have to sell out to slow him down at all costs- dare someone else to beat you in the passing game and try to make Penn State run the football- which they are not so good at and don’t like to do.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on November 11, 2021, 11:04:15 AM
Michigan will need to get the right cleats on.  Footing on Beaver’s grass is notoriously bad in the rain.  Its a shame they don’t do something about it.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 01:16:05 PM
Penn State opened as favorites- line has swung and now Michigan is a 1.5 point favorite.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: BuckeyeAvenger on November 12, 2021, 08:45:34 AM
On paper, this points to a low scoring Michigan win. However, who are we kidding? Michigan doesn’t win meaningful games in November, anymore. 😂💩🐖🤡🦧🏈
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2021, 08:50:04 AM
Looks like a "pick'em" game, no?  I suspect UM wins just to keep JH around another year.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on November 12, 2021, 09:33:43 AM
Both teams have a very good defense.  I think Michigan's offense is a little better so I also see a low scoring Michigan win.   That and with the wind and rain with temperatures in the low 40s it should be thoroughly miserable experience for the home crowd.

Michigan    17
Penn State 10
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on November 12, 2021, 10:06:32 AM
Two good defenses in the rain? Love it, can't wait.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 12, 2021, 10:11:11 AM
On paper, this points to a low scoring Michigan win. However, who are we kidding? Michigan doesn’t win meaningful games in November, anymore. 😂💩🐖🤡🦧🏈
Ouch. But...FACTS.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2021, 10:15:53 AM
I went to the Tech-UGA game last year, it was 38°F and off and on drizzle, and a mismatch of course.  I stayed reasonably warm, ish.

It certainly was a damper on crowd enthusiasm.  That could be a factor tomorrow of course, and the noon kick.  It would seem to be a low scorer of course but weird things happen.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on November 12, 2021, 10:25:31 AM
some buzz that Virginia Tech may be looking to interview Josh Gattis for their HC position. Not sure he's ready for prime time. My prediction however; his offenses will get a lot better once he's away from Jim Harbaugh and Harbaugh's fingerprints are removed from the offense.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: Geolion91 on November 12, 2021, 10:37:31 AM
Coach Harbaugh said the injured are probable for Saturday but I have my doubts about Corum returning.  Best case scenario is the injury to his foot was a mild sprain of some kind and recovery after just one week still seems unlikely.    Michigan is now favored by one and the weather forecast looks like it'll be a wet Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
Wet weather probably benefits Michigan since Penn State is going to rely on their passing game.

I've never heard of Beaver Stadiums grass being notoriously bad when wet, beyond the fact of natural grass being a bit slick.
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2021, 10:53:10 AM
I think it was bad for tOSU game if i recall right
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 11:02:39 AM
of course it was, poor Buckeyes
Title: Re: #6 Michigan (8-1, 5-1) at Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2021, 11:09:14 AM
They're all after us,the condition wouldn't have stopped you from golfing