CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 06, 2021, 08:24:25 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-9-24646/).
Votes through @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) , 13 voters (lighter than normal, who is missing?):
(https://i.imgur.com/RiW1OmX.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/i8pUtqK.png)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/Our9UX0.png)
GOTY progression:
- Preseason: #1 tOSU vs #2 UW not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 1: #1 tOSU vs #2 PSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 2: #1 Iowa vs #2 PSU 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 3: #1 PSU vs #2 Iowa 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 4: #1 PSU at #2 tOSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 5: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 6: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 7: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 8: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
- Week 9: #1 tOSU vs #2 MSU 11/20 in Columbus
- Week 10: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
COTY Progression:
- Tucker with Locksley and Schiano chasing
- Tucker with Schiano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker with Schciano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Frost and Ferentz well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Harbaugh and Bert well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
- Tucker with a slightly less enormous lead than he has had, Brohm, Bert, and Harbaugh well behind.
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(https://i.imgur.com/louVguT.png)
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I would argue Purdue is ahead of PSU, but it's close, their huge opening win at Wisc being key.
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1. Ohio State: Another week, another gritty if fortunate win. Hard to know what to make of these guys. How they ended up throwing 54 times is a mystery to me. The guys have to get the running game sorted out - running the Air Raid is not the key to winning the Big Ten. The defense was again decent to good, though still waiting to face a fully functional offense.
2. Michigan: Not exactly an inspiring performance - I was in a bar for most of their game so didn't see much of it. Seems like the offense was working in fits and starts. The defense romped - pretty clear they have the best defensive line in the conference, and behind them they play pretty sound football. Indiana is a bit of a corpse, so tough to say much.
3. Wisconsin: If this team gets a functional passing offense, they are the best team in the conference. Graham Mertz actually had a stat line worth remembering against Rutgers, and they were the best team in the B1G yesterday. Wiscy is on a five game winning streak and is clearly looking like the class of the West right now, though the way that division has looked, could change in an instant.
4. Michigan State: The iffy back end finally bit them, as they really never slowed down Purdue, who had almost 600 yards of offense. Still, they showed moxy, coming to within a score in the last few minutes. They actually averaged more yards per play than Purdue did, so this is a team with some punch.
5. Purdue: The team looks much more potent on offense than early in the season. They actually display a very new Purdue trait - consistency. David Bell is a monster, they have some guys on defense, and they will be a tough out for anyone they play, which includes the next opponent, OSU.
6. Penn State: Hard to know what to make of this team, which really struggled with Maryland until an 87 yard pick six made the score look a lot wider than the game was. They can't run the ball, but they play defense and have some dudes at receiver.
7. Minnesota: Another tough team to rank. They are like the golfer who hits perfect shots the first three strokes, and then the fourth shanks into a tree and nails an old lady in the head.
8. Nebraska: Another week, another competitive loss where they had more than enough mistakes to make sure their fans couldn't sleep at night. This time, two missed field goals and a shanked punt.
9. Iowa: Somehow outgained by Northwestern.
10. Illinois: Another win for the Berts, and if it wasn't for the fact that you can't trust this team even a little, they might be higher. Still, a good season for them, considering they still look allergic to the forward pass.
11. Maryland: Competitive with Penn State, though not sure what that gets you these days.
12. Northwestern: Competitive with Iowa. Congrats.
13. Rutgers: Sometimes you are the windshield, this week they were the bug.
14. Indiana: They play hard, but they are bad.
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Nothing sums up the Big Ten West better than having 4 teams tied for 1st at 4-2. After a lot of chaos we are back to OSU and Wisc being the best teams in each division.
1. OSU - struggled at Neb but got the win.
2. Mich - only loss is on road by 4 to MSU
3. Wisc - 3 strong wins in a row since struggling early
4. Purdue - strong wins over MSU and Iowa. Don't play Purdue when QB is hot.
5. MSU - a lot of close wins
6. PSU - too bad they don't have a decent backup QB
7. Minn - JECKYL and HYDE
8. Iowa. - got a spark from backup QB but Iowa's offense is still bad.
9. ILL - what can you say, they have 3 wins over teams they should have loss to, and 2 losses to teams they should have beat. But half the time, they actually play like they are a good team.
10. Neb - the little engine that could not. Close is not good enough. You actually need to win some games. You got to wonder what Neb's record would be if they had a decent FG kicker and decent special teams
11. MD. - a couple of close wins over ILL and Ind keeps MD out of the basement
12. Ind. - What happened to Ind this year? Ind-Rut game set up now as battle for the basement.
13. NW - surprised NW kept it that close against Iowa
14. Rutgers - Boy they looked bad against Wisc. They get a couple chances for redemption in the last few weeks.
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Purdue
6. Penn State
7. Iowa
8. Nebraska
9. Illinois
10. Minnesota
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Purdue (only when they play top teams)
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Penn State
8. Illinois (2-Beez still remembers how to beat the Goophs - did he go for two?)
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Maryland
13. Rutgers
14. Indiana
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1. OSU, I've had them here all season.
2. Michigan, by default
3. Michigan State
4. Wisconsin
5. Iowa
6. PSU
7. Nebraska
8. Purdue
9. Minnesota
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. NW
13. Illinoi
14. Rutger
The top 3 are pretty good, the next 5 are erratic, and the bottom teams are pretty bad.
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Illinois got its "S" back yesterday.
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Illinois got its "S" back yesterday.
i would not say that.
if Minnesota had a competent OC calling plays most games would not be nail biters Mike Sanford is the worst OC/play caller and should be fired immediately and never coach again at a P5 level
he has ruined the players on this team with his crap schemes
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- Buckeyes
- Wolverines
- Spartans
- Badgers
- Hawkeyes
- Nittany Lions
- Boilermakers
- Fighting Illini
- Golden Gophers
- Cornhuskers
- Terrapins
- Wildcats
- Hoosiers
- Scarlette Knights
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2. Michigan: Not exactly an inspiring performance - I was in a bar for most of their game so didn't see much of it. Seems like the offense was working in fits and starts. The defense romped - pretty clear they have the best defensive line in the conference, and behind them they play pretty sound football.
Not sure I agree with this. I think Michigan has the best edge rushers in the conference by far in Hutchinson and Ojabo- both of these guys look like 1st round NFL Draft picks right now. Their interior DL is just above average, Mazi Smith and Chris Hinton have not taken that leap that you've seen Hutchinson & Ojabo take.
And Michigan's LB'ers can absolutely be had- they bite on the play-action and get flowing the wrong way on misdirection plays WAY too much. A lot of that is youth and inexperience as LB Junior Colson is a true frosh and LB Nikhai Hill-Green is a RS Frosh. Josh Ross is the solid vet on the inside at MIKE- but he's more run-stuffer- he doesn't have the sideline to sideline speed those frosh do.
Safety duo of Hawkins and Moten has been really good. DJ Turner has been getting more and more starts and is clearly the best CB they have at the moment. Vincent Gray and Gemon Green have actually improved leaps and bounds to competent- which is shocking considering they both absolutely sucked last year.
Dax Hill surprisingly has been the weak link in coverage this year. He has given up a lot of big chunk plays this year. He gave up the long TD pass which gave MSU the go-ahead score and he also gave up both of MSU's 2-point conversion plays. He also gave up huge passing plays vs Wisconsin as well. Dax has been rock solid in run support and he's been a ninja at blowing up screen passes- but his man to man coverage has actually been the weak link of that pass defense believe it or not. Mr. OMGERRRGGG FIVE STARZZZZ and his 4.3 speed has been getting smoked in man coverage like he still plays for Don Brown.
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1 OSU
2 Michigan
3 Wisconsin
4 Purdue
5 MSU
6 Iowa
7 PSU
8 Maryland
9 Illinois
10 Minnesota
11 Nebraska
12 Rutgers
13 NW
14 IU
although in 2 weeks IU will get their first win or be on a 2 game win streak heading into Purdue week
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(https://i.imgflip.com/5taw1e.jpg)
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7. Nebraska
8. Purdue
Ok, I'll bite. By what possible metric are you justifying this one?
I mean, if this was a case where the two hadn't played already, I could maybe understand the whole "Nebraska is the best 3-6 team in the nation" rhetoric, but Purdue is now 6-3 with a head to head win against Nebraska. So what gives?
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cause the Husker unis look a little like the Dawg's?
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Purdue
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Penn State
8. Illinois
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Maryland
13. Rutgers
14. Indiana
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Purdue isn't 4th or 5th in the conference. They're mid pack and got some great wins but also have some not great losses and close games against teams well below them in the standings.
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cause the Husker unis look a little like the Dawg's?
Nebraksa's like a cornered rat, while Purdue is all fat and happy with a couple of upsets already under their belt.
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relegated to hoping for upsets
:'(
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Last week in parenthesis
- OHIO STATE (1) - not pretty, but none of the top teams have looked good against Nebraska
- MICHIGAN (3) - solid bounceback
- MICHIGAN STATE (2) - the bend but don't break defense finally snapped against a team that was finishing drives
- WISCONSIN (5) - is it finally coming all together?
- PENN STATE (4) - being tied in the 4th quarter against Maryland is not ideal
- PURDUE (8) - when they know you are going to almost exclusively pass, and you can still do it?
- IOWA (7) - why now do you choose to throw the ball 32 times?
- MINNESOTA (6) - everything was aligned for a division title, and you lose home games to Bowling Green and Illinois?
- NEBRASKA (10) - another "almost"
- MARYLAND (9) - completely melted down after tying Penn State early in the 4th
- ILLINOIS (12) - this team really wants that Rutgers game back
- RUTGERS (11) - this team would prefer not to play Illinois again
- INDIANA (13) - the wheels have completely come off
- NORTHWESTERN (14) - defense fought hard at least
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Not my ranking, just for information/consideration.
Rankings based on MOV against each B1G team in league games:
- 1.58 Ohio State
- 2.42 Wisconsin
- 3.00 Minnesota
- 3.00 Purdue
- 3.21 Nebraska
- 3.50 Penn State
- 3.92 Michigan
- 4.36 Iowa
- 4.36 Illinois
- 4.42 Michigan State
- 5.00 Rutgers
- 5.58 Indiana
- 5.75 Maryland
- 5.75 Northwestern
Method:
- Illinois and Nebraska have each played seven league games. Their opponents are each ranked 1-7 based on scoring differential against. Ie, UW gets a "1" for their 24 point win over Illinois because no other team has beaten the Illini by more than that.
- The other 12 B1G teams have each played six league games. Their opponents are each ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, through 6.5 in order of scoring differential against. Ie, PU gets a "1.5" for their 11 point win over MSU because no other team has beaten the Spartans by more than that (or at all for that matter).
- Where ties occur the scores are averaged. Ie, PSU and UNL each get a "2" for their 9 point losses to tOSU because that is tied for the best performance against tOSU so far and otherwise first would get a 1.5 and second would get a 2.5.
Things that jump out:
WISCONSIN:
The Badgers have an odd profile here. They are best of seven against Illinois and best of six against IA, PU, and RU even surpassing tOSU against RU. In their other two games, however, they are a mess. They are fourth of six against both Michigan and Penn State. So they are either really good (four games) or bad (two games). This LOOKS like a chronological issue. Penn State was their first game of the season while Michigan was their fourth game overall and second league game. Those two look terrible and their four more recent league games look great.
NEBRASKA:
They look good on this metric because they lose close to basically everybody and a number of their opponents are good enough such that losing close to them "looks" good:
- No B1G team has beaten tOSU and UNL's 9 point loss is tied with PSU for best against tOSU so far.
- Only PU has beaten MSU and UNL's OT loss to MSU is second best after that.
- Only MSU has beaten M and UNL's 3 point loss is second best after that.
- Their one win was BY FAR the biggest win against Northwestern. They beat the Wildcats by 49 points and while lots of teams have beaten NU this year, the next biggest MoV was by Minnesota at barely over half of that.
MICHIGAN STATE:
Nobody (even me) is going to rank the Spartans 10th or lower even after the loss to Purdue but that is where they rank on this metric. I don't think they are actually as bad as this metric suggests but I do think that they aren't as good as most people will rank them this week and they obviously were not as good as most people ranked them last week.
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The biggest conundrum for me this week is Wisconsin. Looking at their last few games I frankly think that right now they are possibly/probably the second best team in the league behind only Ohio State. OTOH, it is hard to justify ranking them ahead of PSU and M when they lost to both of those teams and even harder when both losses were at home and even harder when one of those losses was by 21 points.
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I think part of the problem here is that the East has 4 REALLY good teams, and 3 REALLY bad teams. The West on the other hand has 4 pretty good teams, 2 decent teams, and only one real stinker.
It makes things kinda hard to figure out. Is the East just really that much better than the West, or have they just had the benefit of feasting on Indiana / Rutgers / Maryland.
The end of this season is going to be bonkers.
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Rankings preview, votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , 10 voters:
- 1.00 tOSU
- 2.10 M
- 3.40 UW
- 3.90 MSU
- 5.30 PU
- 6.10 PSU
- 6.60 IA
- 8.80 MN
- 9.20 UNL
- 9.30 IL
- 10.70 UMD
- 12.30 NU
- 13.10 IU
- 13.20 RU
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 I do not think it is close.
- Michigan - 3,2,2,3,3,3,3,5,5,5 I have them ahead of UW mostly because they beat UW by three TD's but that said I wouldn't be very confident that they would beat UW on a neutral field now.
- Wisconsin - 4,4,5,5,5,7,4,3,3,2 I've been saying for weeks that Wisconsin was better than their record. They sure looked like it this week! If they keep looking this good I'll move them up to at least #2 even if nobody ahead of them loses.
- Penn State - 5,6,3,4,4,2,2,2,2,3 Odd team.
- Michigan State - 2,5,6,6,6,8,7,9,9,11 I've been saying for weeks that I thought MSU was overrated. Then last week I finally moved them up to #2 and . . . I should have held out a week.
- Iowa - 6,3,4,2,2,4,5,4,4,4 As good as they once appeared in their last three games they got spanked by PU and UW and barely survived NU.
- Purdue - 8,9,8,12,12,11,11,11,11,10 They've pulled a couple big upsets this year but a win this weekend would be bigger than both of those combined. Ohio State hasn't lost a league game since . . . October of 2018 in West Lafayette, the last time they played PU.
- Minnesota - 7,7,7,10,10,9,6,8,6,7 How can you be good enough to run with tOSU, beat PU, and destroy Colorado and yet bad enough to lose to BGSU and IL?
- Maryland - 9,10,9,8,8,5,8,6,7,12 Good enough to be tied with PSU in the fourth quarter, bad enough to lose to PSU by 17 anyway.
- Nebraska - 10,11,10,7,7,12,12,14,14,9 Seems to lose a close game every week.
- Illinois - 13,8,12,13,13,13,13,13,13,14 Just like that IL is still in the B1GCG race! (Thank you @LittlePig ).
- Indiana - 11,12,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,6 For anyone keeping track, the Hoosiers lost to Cincinnati by two TD's. In the B1G they have bigger losses to tOSU (47), PSU (24), and M (22).
- Rutgers - 12,14,9,9,9,6,9,7,8,13 Huge game for bowl eligibility coming up this weekend.
- Northwestern - 14,13,14,14,14,14,14,12,12,8 Just not their year.
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I think part of the problem here is that the East has 4 REALLY good teams, and 3 REALLY bad teams. The West on the other hand has 4 pretty good teams, 2 decent teams, and only one real stinker.
It makes things kinda hard to figure out. Is the East just really that much better than the West, or have they just had the benefit of feasting on Indiana / Rutgers / Maryland.
The end of this season is going to be bonkers.
The only hole in this theory is PSU is 1-2 against the West and 3-3 overall with games still left against MSU and Mich. That does not scream REALLY good to me. You could argue PSU is REALLY good when Clifford is healthy, but I would make a counter argument that a REALLY good team would have a decent backup QB.
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- Ohio State - The recent inability to score consistently when in the red zone, should be concerning. I hope they get this figured out sooner than later.
- Michigan - Probably the most consistent team in the B1G this year. Still believe that H2H, they would lose to tOSU.
- Penn State - When Clifford is healthy, I believe they are the better than the teams below them.
- Wisconsin - They are finally playing up to their potential. If they had played like this all year, they would most likely be #1 in my ranking.
- Purdue - Based on recent performance, I would have to rank them ahead of the next 2 teams.
- Michigan State - They have been playing with fire the entire season and finally got burned. They are a good team, but I think they got some breaks and lucky bounces. They have 3 more weeks to prove me wrong.
- Iowa - I would rank them lower, but the teams below them are worse. Lack of offensive firepower is keeping bad teams in the game for far too long.
- Illinois - BB has them playing well. Let's see how long they can keep it up.
- Minnesota - I think they may be better than this ranking, but they need to step up and show it.
- Nebraska - At some point, they will beat one of the teams ranked higher.
- Maryland - Showed some life early against the Lions, but then fell back to Earth.
- Rutgers - Finally clawing their way out of the cellar.
- Indiana - QB injuries have killed them.
- Northwestern - From 1st in the West last year to worst.
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Nebraska - At some point, they will beat one of the teams ranked higher.
I hope the hell you are right
They have the Badgers in Madtown and the Hawkeyes in Lincoln
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eL1XpY5eRFk
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Michigan -
Michigan State -
Ohio State -
Wisconsin -
Purdue -
Penn State -
Iowa -
Minnesota -
Maryland -
Illinois -
Nebraska -
Northwestern -
Rutgers -
Indiana -
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Michigan -
Michigan State -
Ohio State -
LoL.
You might ultimately be right but at the present time there is absolutely nothing other than blind anti-homerism to justify this vote. Here are all of their league games:
(https://i.imgur.com/uTf3Cy1.png)
Here are the common opponents:
Nebraska:
- Ohio State won by two scores
- Michigan won by a FG
- Michigan State won in OT
Rutgers:
- Ohio State won by 39
- Michigan State won by 18
- Michigan won by 7
Indiana:
- Ohio State won by 47
- Michigan won by 22
- Michigan State won by 5
None of those are even close. The scoring differentials in the Nebraska games aren't THAT far off but the games are not similar at all. Both Michigan schools trailed in the fourth quarter. Michigan kicked a late FG to tie it up and an even later FG to win. Michigan State scored a late TD to tie it up then won on a FG in OT. Ohio State NEVER trailed and ended the game in the victory formation taking a knee to close out their two-score win.
Forthcoming data points:
- 11/13: tOSU hosts Purdue which will compare to MSU's 11 point loss to the Boilermakers.
- 11/13: Michigan travels to Penn State which will compare to tOSU's 9 point win over the Nittany Lions.
- 11/13: Michigan State hosts Maryland which will compare to tOSU's 49 point win over the Terps.
- 11/20: tOSU/MSU H2H
- 11/20: Michigan travels to Maryland which will compare to tOSU's 49 point win over the Terps and whatever MSU does on 11/13.
- 11/27: tOSU/M H2H
- 11/27: Michigan State hosts Penn State which will compare to tOSU's 9 point win over the Nittany Lions and whatever M does on 11/13.
Even if all three results go against tOSU this weekend the Buckeyes would still look better overall. They'd have worse results than MSU against PU and UMD but those would be offset by better results against UNL, RU, and IU. They'd have a worse result than M against PSU but that would be offset by better results against UNL, RU, and IU. At least then it would be close enough for reasonable people to disagree.
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Results posted, votes through @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) , 13 voters (who is missing?).
There isn't much consensus this week. Here are the three things that at least half of us agree on:
- 12/13 that tOSU is #1
- 11/13 that M is #2 (it is a wash because the other two votes are #1 and #3).
- 7/13 that UW is #3
That is it.
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Composite computer rankings - 91 computers (last week in parentheses)
- Georgia (1)
- Alabama (2)
- OHIO STATE (3)
- MICHIGAN (4)
- Cincinnati (5)
- Notre Dame (8)
- Oklahoma (7)
- Oklahoma State (10)
- MICHIGAN STATE (6)
- WISCONSIN (16)
- Texas A&M (17)
- Ole Miss (14)
- IOWA (13)
- Wake Forest (9)
- Oregon (15)
- PENN STATE (18)
- Baylor (11)
- Auburn (12)
- UTSA (22)
- Iowa State (24)
- BYU (19)
- PURDUE (-)
- NC State (25)
- Pittsburgh (20)
- Utah (-)
- 35. Minnesota (23)
- 58. Maryland (58)
- 59. Nebraska (59)
- 66. Illinois (79)
- 69. Rutgers (62)
- 81. Indiana (82)
- 95. Northwestern (92)
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Nebraska holding steady
with Coach Frost!