| Wisconsin was able to claw their way off the mat against lesser opponents, and then put it all together with back to back dominating wins over Purdue and Iowa. Now it's back to the dregs of the Big Ten against a Rutgers team, who rebounded from an upset loss to Northwestern to beat Illinois, and keep their slim bowl hopes alive. The obvious path is at Indiana and home against Maryland, but Wisconsin's lack of offense may allow Rutgers to remain within striking distance. The issue is how the hell is Rutgers going to score at all against this Wisconsin defense which may actually be playing even better than they were in September. Some of the difference may be attributable to the fact that the offense finally looks at least competent. It is still far from a vintage unit, but they look a lot better than the unit that managed just 20 points against an Army team that just gave up 70 points to Wake Forest, allowing a touchdown on every possession but one. The Scarlet Knights run defense has been fairly solid. The only big running games they allowed were against Michigan State and Ohio State, and those were primarily based on a couple of big runs, rather than consistently giving up 4 and 5 yard runs, which is how this Wisconsin run game operates. last week, in beating Illinois, the Scarlet Knights were able to hold an Illinois run game, coming off a 300+ yard game at Penn State, to just 107 yards on 3.6 ypc, with just one run of over 8 yards. If they can do that again this week, and force turnovers, which Wisconsin has seemingly fixed after struggling early in the year, they'll have a chance, because this Wisconsin offense is not built to exploit Rutgers' Big Ten worst pass defense, which is giving up 10.6 ypa in conference games. The most positive sign that Rutgers got out of their win last week though might be the fact they hit four pass plays of 20+ yards. Those chunk plays had avoided Rutgers this year, and is probably the only hope the Scarlet Knights have of moving the ball. Receiver Bo Melton is the best offensive weapon Rutgers has, and got hurt early in the Ohio State game, and then subsequently missed the Michigan State game. Otherwise he has caught at least 4 passes in every game. I think Rutgers, at home, keeps this closer than expected, but the game is never really in doubt. |