CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Mdot21 on October 30, 2021, 04:04:01 PM
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He’s done. He will not be welcome back next year after that embarrassment when he was up 30-14 in the 3rd and only scored 3 points the rest of the way.
There is no way you can keep him if your Michigan’s AD. He will not beat Penn State on the road and Ohio State will murder him at home. He is finished.
Who is Michigan’s next coach?
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He’s done. He will not be welcome back next year after that embarrassment when he was up 30-14 in the 3rd and only scored 3 points the rest of the way.
There is no way you can keep him if your Michigan’s AD. He will not beat Penn State on the road and Ohio State will murder him at home. He is finished.
Who is Michigan’s next coach?
I agree he needs to go, but it's a dead program so it doesn't really matter who the coach is. They can't beat OSU, so they can't win their division, so they can't win their conference, so they can't go to the playoffs, so they can't win the NC.
Maybe someone could come in and beat MSU and PSU here and there, but I lost all optimism for UM years ago. Now I just watch until the wheels fall off. Some seasons it happens later than others, but you always know they will fall off just after Thanksgiving at the very latest.
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I agree he needs to go, but it's a dead program so it doesn't really matter who the coach is. They can't beat OSU, so they can't win their division, so they can't win their conference, so they can't go to the playoffs, so they can't win the NC.
Maybe someone could come in and beat MSU and PSU here and there, but I lost all optimism for UM years ago. Now I just watch until the wheels fall off. Some seasons it happens later than others, but you always know they will fall off just after Thanksgiving at the very latest.
Couldn’t agree more.
We’ve seen what 7 years of this looks like. It’s not going to magically get any better. I think it’s a losers argument to say oh you could always do worse.
MSU can go out and nab Dantonio and Tucker and hit home runs with their hires.
Ohio State can go out and get Tressel, then Urban, and now Ryan Day and hit home runs 3 times in a row with their hires.
Complete hack/losers argument to say that Michigan shouldn’t try to be better and find the right coach. Harbaugh CLEARLY is NOT the right coach.
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Supposedly Fickell may want a Big Ten job.
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He’s done. He will not be welcome back next year
I agree he needs to go, but it's a dead program so it doesn't really matter who the coach is.
I agree he should be shown the door unless running the table and winning a bowl game.But not because of tonite,because of reacurring things like tonite
Be interesting if Luke took the gig when it opens up
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Supposedly Fickell may want a Big Ten job.
He would be an excellent hire- if you can get him.
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I agree he should be shown the door unless running the table and winning a bowl game.But not because of tonite,because of reacurring things like tonite
It's not about 1 game. It's about a recurring theme over 7 years.
And Michigan is NOT going to win out. Complete toss-up game vs Penn State on the road- and considering Harbaugh's track record on road- leaning PSU in that one, and Ohio State will just steamroll them.
They will be 9-4 at best.
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Harbaugh:
3-4 against MSU (0-2 vs Mel Tucker)
0-6 against OSU (with some really embarrassing non-competitive blowout losses)
2-9 on the road vs AP Top 25 ranked teams
2-13 against AP Top 10 ranked teams
Losing overall record against teams with .500 or better seasons
1 bowl game win
This is not acceptable.
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Probably due for Michigan's hope cycle to restart.
We'll get three years of people swearing up and down it'll change when he gets his guys in, and then it won't, everything will sound the same as always.
Hire someone who scores a lot. The coach with the No. 3 scoring offense coming into the day used to work in the state.
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I think it's time to figure out what the goals are. If Scott Frost had Harbaugh's resume he'd be nowhere near the hot seat.
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(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BYjAzYmY4ZWItYzE5ZS00MTczLTgzMTAtZGQ2OTkwOWYwZWU0XkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNTA4NzExMDg@._V1_.jpg)
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FIRE HARBAUGH
Who would you like them to get? More important, would that "who" want the job?
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I think it will be interesting to see if they fire him this year. I know there were serious rumblings preseason. Now he had a nice 6-0 run that ended with a close loss to a rival. He's staring at another loss to OSU and possible loss to Penn State as well, but COULD finish 10-2 plus bowl outcome. Only UGA fires a coach who wins ten games.
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Hire someone who scores a lot. The coach with the No. 3 scoring offense coming into the day used to work in the state.
Who Dat?
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Who would you like them to get? More important, would that "who" want the job?
C'mon,for that coin I could scrape together a staff from this place.Who knows more about football than us? 😜
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I think it will be interesting to see if they fire him this year. I know there were serious rumblings preseason. Now he had a nice 6-0 run that ended with a close loss to a rival. He's staring at another loss to OSU and possible loss to Penn State as well, but COULD finish 10-2 plus bowl outcome. Only UGA fires a coach who wins ten games.
Richt only had nine wins when he was canned, I believe.
I'd be super interested to see the full list of guys fired after 10 wins for performance related reasons. It can't be very long, especially if you discount guys like Tressell.
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Who Dat?
Fella whose team biffed it to Miami this weekend. :)
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Richt only had nine wins when he was canned, I believe.
I'd be super interested to see the full list of guys fired after 10 wins for performance related reasons. It can't be very long, especially if you discount guys like Tressell.
The Dawgs went 10-3 his final two years, he was not coaching at their last bowl game though which they won, so technically he had 9 wins his final year.
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this happened to Solich in 2003
10-3 with the bowl win, but credit for the bowl win was given to Pelini as Solich was fired at the end of the Reg season
the problem was only 6 wins in 2002
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Fella whose team biffed it to Miami this weekend. :)
Holy hell that's an evil thought - BRILLIANT!!! Narduzzi in AA WOW,talk about ramping up a rivalry,like it's not caustic enough already,Nice
HAPPY HALLOWEEN
(https://i.imgur.com/3nQjvoI.png)
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This from CBS
PITTSBURGH (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/PITT/pittsburgh-panthers/) (AP) Tyler Van Dyke was buried on the Miami depth chart two months ago. The redshirt freshman tried to stay patient, repeating to himself over and over that his time would come.
Consider it here.
Brilliant at the start and gutty at the finish, Van Dyke threw for 426 yards and three touchdowns to outduel Heisman Trophy candidate Kenny Pickett as the Hurricanes edged No. 17 Pittsburgh 38-34 on Saturday.
While Pickett threw for a school-record 519 yards, Van Dyke nearly matched him while completing 32 of 42 passes for the three scores and an interception as Miami (4-4, 2-2 Atlantic Coast Conference) defeated a ranked opponent for a second straight week.
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I'd give a serious look to Joe Brady. You have a young talented QB in McCarthy you need to groom and implementing a legitimate modern passing offense would be a great start to turning around a stale program.
There are plenty of good coaches out there. Just have to find one who fits.
Probably a bad idea to hire one that runs a gimmicky offense in a shitty conference (RichRod), a guy who is really nothing more than a cheerleader and doesn't wear a headset & doesn't have input on scheme (Hoke), or a guy who is clearly retarded and also thinks offensive football is stuck in 1989 (Harbaugh).
Plenty of good coaches out there. But in all honesty it starts with the AD. Need to find an AD who is all in on football and who has a track record of hiring successful head coaches.
I'd say Michigan State's AD done a heckuva job with Dantonio and Tucker. Maybe don't need to hire him, but pay him a consulting fee to help you find a head coach.
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If Scott Frost had Harbaugh's resume he'd be nowhere near the hot seat.
(https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/journalstar.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/a5/0a52f845-6e76-58bf-92cb-d980183e2ab9/0a52f845-6e76-58bf-92cb-d980183e2ab9.preview-300.jpg?crop=271%2C271%2C14%2C0&resize=1200%2C1200&order=crop%2Cresize)
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nice pic of those 2 watching wild Bill Snyder running up the score in Lincoln 11/15/2003
Wildcats 38 - Huskers 7
the last straw for Frankie
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I'd give a serious look to Joe Brady. You have a young talented QB in McCarthy you need to groom and implementing a legitimate modern passing offense would be a great start to turning around a stale program.
There are plenty of good coaches out there. Just have to find one who fits.
Probably a bad idea to hire one that runs a gimmicky offense in a shitty conference (RichRod), a guy who is really nothing more than a cheerleader and doesn't wear a headset & doesn't have input on scheme (Hoke), or a guy who is clearly retarded and also thinks offensive football is stuck in 1989 (Harbaugh).
Plenty of good coaches out there. But in all honesty it starts with the AD. Need to find an AD who is all in on football and who has a track record of hiring successful head coaches.
I'd say Michigan State's AD done a heckuva job with Dantonio and Tucker. Maybe don't need to hire him, but pay him a consulting fee to help you find a head coach.
Would the MSU AD really be interested in helping Michigan?
Better off trying to hire King Barry to find a coach. He IS the search committee.
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Harbaughs in a better recruiting position at least previously.Can't leave guys like Harbaugh/Cooper hang,Cooper should have gotten the hook long before he did.At least UM realized RR or Hokemon weren't the fit,they now will HAVE to catapult Jeem unless he runs the table and wins a bowl game - no need to feel bad for him.Personally I hope they keep him around,hell extend the contract
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the last straw for Frankie 'Skers dominance
FIFY
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yup, hiring Billy C. to lead your program with the help of AD Stevie Peterson will cause damage
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With LSU and USC in the market, adding one more is going to thin the options available for someone.
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Who Dat?
Nah, I don't think Sean Payton is interested.
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Jon Gruden could probably win there. O0
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With LSU and USC in the market, adding one more is going to thin the options available for someone.
Matt Campbell at Iowa State not as attractive after the loss at WVU yesterday
5-3 with games vs the Horns and Sooners looming
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Have to look at the overall resume say like 3 yrs,chance for good/bad yrs and a tie breaker.He's never had Texas/OU/UM roster
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Who are the main coaches left, not counting assisstants?
Fickell, Aranda, Franklin, Kiffin, Campbell ... I'm sure there are more ...
UGA assistants Lanning and Monken might get a look, Matt Luke is their OL coach. Usually major programs seek someone with HC experience.
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Have to look at the overall resume say like 3 yrs,chance for good/bad yrs and a tie breaker.He's never had Texas/OU/UM roster
he's improved the [program overall.
good at pulling an upset or two each season over good teams, but isn't able to finish a complete season
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Thin roster gets winded when 1st teamers get injured or needs rest = no 2 deep in other words
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Next offensive coordinator, University of Iowa. He lived here when he was 5 and 6. Circle complete.
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Michigan QB McNamara played extremely well. Michigan freshman QB McCarthy, the one Mdot21 has been calling on Coach Harbaugh to start all year, pretty much lost the game for Michigan.
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Michigan QB McNamara played extremely well. Michigan freshman QB McCarthy, the one Mdot21 has been calling on Coach Harbaugh to start all year, pretty much lost the game for Michigan.
Yeah, that is complete bullshit. McCarthy threw the only red-zone TD they scored if memory serves me right. The defense lost the game by letting one guy run buck wild on them for over 200+ yards and 5 TD's. Harbaugh lost the game by getting out-coached and out-schemed on the road by a superior coach, as usual. Harbaugh had his team up 30-14 late into the 3rd QTR and he beefed a 16 point lead. Pretty typical shit for that retard- as his winning pct % vs AP ranked teams on the road is....wait for it.... .182. That's some winning football for you! What a great coach! He can ALMOST win 20% of his games on the road vs good teams! YAY! Let's GIVE HIM A RAISE!
And if you really want to get technical McNamara literally lost the game when he threw an interception which ended the game.
So spare me this bullshit. McNamara sucks- he literally threw a wobbled duck INT which ended the game and he literally missed a wide open WR on a deep ball the series before which would've put Michigan in the red-zone with an opportunity to make the go-ahead TD. McNamara missed on literally every single deep ball he attempted- just like he always does. He hit Andrel Anthony and Mike Sainistril on a couple of intermediate crossing routes- which THOSE PLAYERS took the distance. Every single throw down the field whether it be a go route or seam route down the middle- McNamara literally missed on by overthrowing or underthrowing his receiver- because that's what he does- because he sucks.
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Who are the main coaches left, not counting assisstants?
Fickell, Aranda, Franklin, Kiffin, Campbell ... I'm sure there are more ...
UGA assistants Lanning and Monken might get a look, Matt Luke is their OL coach. Usually major programs seek someone with HC experience.
Isn't Matt Canada the Steelers OC?Not sure but he might take a shot a gig like UM
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Yeah, that is complete bullshit.
No it's not,after the second fumble in as many attempts - M Fans who've called the local shows today were like get him the eff outta there.They thought he had the jitters
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Fickell, Aranda, Franklin, Kiffin, Campbell ... Matt Campbell ... who else?
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No it's not,after the second fumble in as many attempts - M Fans who've called the local shows today were like get him the eff outta there.They thought he had the jitters
Yes it is. The first fumble was inconsequential. It went out of bounds and Michigan retained possession.
The second fumble which Michigan State recovered- they punted the ball right after.
You want to blame someone, here's the order;
1) Jim Harbaugh
2) Michigan's Defense/Mike MacDonald
3) Cade McNamara
There you go.
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Um,no - McNamera had a good game.Your stallion jumped out of it's stall.JJ eliminated himself as another option because of his own sloppy play.He'll get another chance.Stick to the HC or Defense if fingers must be pointed.Sometimes the opposition has something to do with it
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Fickell, Aranda, Franklin, Kiffin, Campbell ... Matt Campbell ... who else?
(https://i.imgur.com/UvU7608.png) He's available
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Campbell would be hilarious.
Even Harbaugh would be like "dude, you NEVER beat your rival, or win any type of Championship."
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Campbell gets a shot at the Longhorns this weekend
would look good on the resume
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(https://i.imgur.com/UvU7608.png) He's available
Freddy the Cable Guy?
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Coach Harbaugh ain't going anywhere. Freshman QB McCarty is very talented but has no business on the field when the game is in doubt.
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Coach Harbaugh ain't going anywhere. Freshman QB McCarty is very talented but has no business on the field when the game is in doubt.
Harbaugh is finished. And McCarthy should've been the starter day one. McNamara is a terrific back-up QB, but that's all he is. He's not starting material.
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Campbell would be hilarious.
Even Harbaugh would be like "dude, you NEVER beat your rival, or win any type of Championship."
I will seriously just quit watching if they hire Campbell. He's Harbaugh Lite.
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My GUESS is Harbaugh gets one more year if they finish with ten wins, and probably even nine wins.
Part of this is based on who is logically available who looks any better.
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My GUESS is Harbaugh gets one more year if they finish with ten wins, and probably even nine wins.
Part of this is based on who is logically available who looks any better.
you can hire a relatively unknown.
Saban was an unknown when Michigan State hired him. Ditto Dantonio and Mel Tucker.
Doesn't have to be a big name (RichRod) or a guy with connections to Michigan (Hoke).
Just hire a good coach. Trying to hire the sexy name or the guy with connections is what makes it go south.
It's probably way too early but I think Mike Hart is going to be a very successful head coach one day.
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Major programs often/usually look for a splashy hire (like JH). Going to assistants is risky, historically. Anything is risky. Fickell would be risky. I'm thinking back over "good hires" in the past decade or so, and I don't think there were many.
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The Mike Hart hire was weird. As if Sparty didn't get enough milage out of the "little brother" comments, now they can point to the opposing sideline and say "there he is, right there!"
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Campbell would be hilarious.
Even Harbaugh would be like "dude, you NEVER beat your rival, or win any type of Championship."
Could be worse like Ferentz break the bank and get what ya got.They were no 2,what the hell happened there?When did MC have the players UM/UT/OU have?I know he'd do at least as good as their last 3 Hires
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Some programs do pretty well with relatively poor recruiting, but they do well sporadically, and often have thin rosters (Iowa State). If you want to be in the top ten every year, I think elite recruiting is an absolute necessity.
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I don't think you need a sexy name. You just need a good coach.
Usually when you go for the name you get a guy that's just a failed retread (see Texas & Sark) or a guy who runs a gimmick offense in a shit conference (RichRod) or a guy that's just past his prime (Harbaugh). There are no Saban's or Urban's. Those dudes are unicorns.
Don't need a sexy name. Need a guy that can really coach. MSU seems to have been able to figure that out with Dantonio and Tucker. Consider me jealous.
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as his winning pct % vs AP ranked teams on the road is....wait for it.... .182. That's some winning football for you! What a great coach! He can ALMOST win 20% of his games on the road vs good teams!
How bad is this really? I mean ranked teams don't lose all that much and they lose even less at home.
I'm not willing to take the time to figure it out manually, is there somewhere I could look up road records against ranked teams for Harbaugh's tenure? 20% doesn't sound very good, but how does it compare?
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better than Scott Frost
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How bad is this really? I mean ranked teams don't lose all that much and they lose even less at home.
I'm not willing to take the time to figure it out manually, is there somewhere I could look up road records against ranked teams for Harbaugh's tenure? 20% doesn't sound very good, but how does it compare?
He's not even 20%. He's 18%. That's really bad.
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Frost could really craft a "speed in space" offense with those Wolverine athletes.
Harbaugh could run some pretty mean man ball with those Nebraska farm boys.
Clearly the choice is obvious. Swap head coaches.
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ESPN just put up a stat- Harbaugh's winning pct % in ranked match-ups on the road is worst of any coach at a single school in FBS history.
John Vaught at Mississippi is at .250 and Kirk Ferentz is at .250 as well.
Congrats Jim! You're #1 at something! Amazing 18% win pct!
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I think Frost is 0 for vs ranked opponents regardless of home/away
must be some minimum number of games or such
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There are no Saban's or Urban's. Those dudes are unicorns.
I suspect Urban will be available. Question is, "Would Michigan take him, and would he coach Michigan?"
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I think Frost is 0 for vs ranked opponents regardless of home/away
must be some minimum number of games or such
Maybe it's when both teams are ranked. Obviously, Vandy would be near 0% over whatever time period.
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Frost could really craft a "speed in space" offense with those Wolverine athletes.
Harbaugh could run some pretty mean man ball with those Nebraska farm boys.
Clearly the choice is obvious. Swap head coaches.
I support this.
Bonus points since Frost took half a title from Michigan.
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Frost would be as welcome in AA as Urban
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I wouldn't fire a coach without a pretty good succession plan with options.
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I wouldn't either, but the Huskers have done it twice. And it seems it happens more often than not.
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I wouldn't fire a coach without a pretty good succession plan with options.
Georgia did it and it worked out pretty OK for them.
This line of thinking is a fallacy. You fire the guy if he's clearly not up to par and you go through the interview process and find a coach.
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Brady Hoke is doing a pretty good job at San Diego State, plus he's a Michigan man. O0
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Georgia had a plan, clearly, a guy in mind who was willing to come.
I don't fire a coach without a plan.
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sometimes you have a plan and then the plan goes to heck
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A real plan includes contingency planning as well. If I look at the landscape and don't see anyone better than what I have who might come, I ain't firing the guy.
I wonder if interviews really change any decisions. Maybe there is a personality conflict when the AD meets him.
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(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/195/946/3946195.jpg?width=600&fit=bounds) (https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/195/946/3946195.jpg)
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Were I an AD, I'd be scared of doing a Tennessee. It's a downward spiral broken only by a lucky hire at some point. I think I'd need to have one guy in front of mind and two legit backups before I'd fire a pretty successful HC. It's too easy to trade off "not good enough" for "much worse".
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If a coach has to get the axe then he has to.Don't know if people are serious until they actually take time out to dress up,make an appointment and provide a resume' and go thru the interview process.You'll get that when the actual position comes open and candidates know it.
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I suspect there is a lot of back channel conversations that happen, a coach can signal through his agent he's not interested, might be interested, or interested.
I personally would not fire a half decent coach without a realistic chance of hiring what appears to be an upgrade. Just jumping in and hoping to me is not a plan.
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I suspect there is a lot of back channel conversations that happen, a coach can signal through his agent he's not interested, might be interested, or interested.
I personally would not fire a half decent coach without a realistic chance of hiring what appears to be an upgrade. Just jumping in and hoping to me is not a plan.
I would at this point he's smoke and mirrors at a Blue Blood.If I'm on the board of Regents in AA or whatever their equivalent is I'm looking at Nebraska or Tennessee or even USC.They have to get a decent HC and they are out there.As someone mentione about the coach at UTSA,Harbarbaugh's luster has faded - and hard,he's not a draw or a destination anymore
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He's also winning 9-10 games a season. It can get worse. Ask Tennessee. A few seasons of that and you fall of the radar of top recruits.
Anyway, it's how I think I'd approach it. Don't fire half decent and then hire worse.
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Look at Georgia all of those years with Richt what was it 14-15?At or near the cusp but not getting over.I was a early proponent of letting go Mark Richt go.Nice guy,good family man,neighbor,friend and all of that but his tenure mirrored Coopers in a talent rich state.And given like 4 cycles of players & coaches coming/going.I think that move has reaped a reward for the Dawgs.Talent hasn't been flocking out of the state as much
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UGA has a major advantage in recruiting over most schools, and Smart is leveraging that no doubt. I'm still looking at Tennessee, Texas, USC as examples of how this can go south without a plan.
I also came to believe Richt was just too soft in several ways, and that isn't good. He's being honored at halftime Saturday.
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I suspect there is a lot of back channel conversations that happen, a coach can signal through his agent he's not interested, might be interested, or interested.
I personally would not fire a half decent coach without a realistic chance of hiring what appears to be an upgrade. Just jumping in and hoping to me is not a plan.
I'd have a helluva strong signal that my target was no doubt taking the job, before firing a 9 win coach
I think Nebraska thought they had that commitment from Houston Nutt's agent when firing Solich and somehow the deal blew up.
my chance of hiring what appears to be an upgrade would much more than simply realistic, because hiring a 3rd or 4th option that fails and takes the program in a worse position is much worse than staying with the 9-win guy until an upgrade can be secured. Even if it does take a couple seasons
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UGA has a major advantage in recruiting over most schools, and Smart is leveraging that no doubt. I'm still looking at Tennessee, Texas, USC as examples of how this can go south without a plan.
I also came to believe Richt was just too soft in several ways, and that isn't good. He's being honored at halftime Saturday.
Problem is Michigan's at that point if they want to get back into the DISCUSSION they'll have to shuffle the deck.Or just get use to annually losing 2 out 3 to tOSU/MSU/PSU.Right now they're fan base isn't 50-50 IMO,it's decidedly negative.The Wolverines have to win out to rinse out the the sting and stench.Otherwise it's here we go again and "when will we make a serious run at the hardware"
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getting used to annually losing 2 out 3 to tOSU/MSU/PSU sucks, but don't let emotions cause you to go the path of the coaching carousel like Tennessee or Texas or Nebraska
you could very possibly then be getting used to losing seasons
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I'd have a helluva strong signal that my target was no doubt taking the job, before firing a 9 win coach
I think Nebraska thought they had that commitment from Houston Nutt's agent when firing Solich and somehow the deal blew up.
Perhaps but michigan for better or worse is in a more productive recruitng place,IMO.UNL is a harder sell that I would have no problem sending a kid - mine own or someone elses to.Frost was a great hire at the time - who knew.He was previously in a talent rich environmet before that produced results'
I guess it's nothing ventured,nothing gained
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see Tennessee and Texas.. in great recruiting areas
toss in USC
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getting used to annually losing 2 out 3 to tOSU/MSU/PSU sucks, but don't let emotions cause you to go the path of the coaching carousel like Tennessee or Texas or Nebraska
That's not emotions - that's a trend
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It will be interesting to look back on this, whatever this is, and see how it worked out.
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Some of the situation might depend on how JH's contract is structured and who UM has it's sights set on
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That's not emotions - that's a trend
it's usually a couple boosters of substance that are working on emotions saying it's a trend
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getting used to annually losing 2 out 3 to tOSU/MSU/PSU sucks, but don't let emotions cause you to go the path of the coaching carousel like Tennessee or Texas or Nebraska
you could very possibly then be getting used to losing seasons
They already went down that road with Rich Rod and Hoke, they know the risk.
The Texas one is interesting. Unlike the others, they always land the hot flavor of the month coach, and it turns out the same as the Mike Rileys and Butch Joneses.
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it's usually a couple boosters of substance that are working on emotions saying it's a trend
No that's a trend.Michigan hasn't really played for the Big Ten Title maybe twice in 15 yrs 2005 and 2016.But the ladder was Hoke's players.They are use to being the "Leaders and the Best".Believe they still have the all time wins.It's a thing and they want to keep reaching
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yes, they know the risk
probably why Harbaugh is safe for another season unless their top candidate is ready willing and available
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They already went down that road with Rich Rod and Hoke, they know the risk.
The Texas one is interesting. Unlike the others, they always land the hot flavor of the month coach, and it turns out the same as the Mike Rileys and Butch Joneses.
Here they had their guy right down the road in S.A. - probably
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You gotta keep him, till year 13.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrcuW3Hec2k
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I'd have a helluva strong signal that my target was no doubt taking the job, before firing a 9 win coach
I think Nebraska thought they had that commitment from Houston Nutt's agent when firing Solich and somehow the deal blew up.
my chance of hiring what appears to be an upgrade would much more than simply realistic, because hiring a 3rd or 4th option that fails and takes the program in a worse position is much worse than staying with the 9-win guy until an upgrade can be secured. Even if it does take a couple seasons
He was an alum who was about to take the South Carolina job. People reached out with back channels, said "hold off." So it was in place before Richt caught the bump.
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Never could figure out why Nebraska wanted Nutt. Couple of 9 win seasons, nothing to get crazy about. Just weird.
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Me either, but Steve Peterson was weird and desperate
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This highlights my issue, you fire your guy and then "discover" you are in desparation mode and have to catch someone near the bottom of any list.
Maybe JH really needs firing no matter what, though I don't personally think so. I think he survives the year unless they really implode and lose to PSU.
They lost a very winnable game against a pretty good team on the road, it's not as if they are suddenly a terrible team.
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I'm curious as to what people think of that last Michigan play. Michigan fans call it interference (EXTREME INTEREFERENCE) on mgoblog. Basically Michigan runs a pick play and successfully picks a defensive back off. Unfortunately for Michigan, McNamara throws to the guy doing the picking and not the wide open receiver. I tend to think no call is the right call here. But could also be defensive or offensive pass interference. Video at link below
https://gfycat.com/bruisedsnarlinggiantschnauzer-cade-mcnamara-pick-play-refs-suck
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I'm curious as to what people think of that last Michigan play. Michigan fans call it interference (EXTREME INTEREFERENCE) on mgoblog. Basically Michigan runs a pick play and successfully picks a defensive back off. Unfortunately for Michigan, McNamara throws to the guy doing the picking and not the wide open receiver. I tend to think no call is the right call here. But could also be defensive or offensive pass interference. Video at link below
https://gfycat.com/bruisedsnarlinggiantschnauzer-cade-mcnamara-pick-play-refs-suck
I thought it was the deep pass on the prior possession they had an issue with. There was contact in the end zone, and the no call resulted in a UM FG to make it 33-30, instead of a 1st down. It's hard to keep track of all of the things they want to whine about.
The pick play wasn't even close. I said in the SOC that it worked to perfection, but then McNamera either threw it to the wrong guy, or threw it too soon. The two MSU defenders collided, and he could have either thrown it to the guy going out, or waiting two steps and thrown it to the guy setting the pick, and either one was an easy TD.
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no call imo
incidental contact - WR and DB were not looking for the ball
poor decision by the QB
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I'm curious as to what people think of that last Michigan play. Michigan fans call it interference (EXTREME INTEREFERENCE) on mgoblog. Basically Michigan runs a pick play and successfully picks a defensive back off. Unfortunately for Michigan, McNamara throws to the guy doing the picking and not the wide open receiver. I tend to think no call is the right call here. But could also be defensive or offensive pass interference. Video at link below
https://gfycat.com/bruisedsnarlinggiantschnauzer-cade-mcnamara-pick-play-refs-suck
What I think?
I think McNamara sucks at throwing any ball further than 10 yards in the air. That's what I think.
McNamara doesn't turn it over much and he's great at dinking and dunking. But otherwise- he's just not very good. His pocket feel/pocket presence isn't great- despite having some awesome OL play protecting him all-season, his arm is weak, he cannot run/move at all- he's a statue despite being small at 6 ft ish and 210 pounds, and his deep ball is truly atrocious. He was a VASTLY SUPERIOR player to Joe Milton- who literally sucks- but Cade is a high quality back-up QB at best. Michigan will be going nowhere if that is the type of QB they continue to start.
This programs future is JJ McCarthy or bust.
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This highlights my issue, you fire your guy and then "discover" you are in desparation mode and have to catch someone near the bottom of any list.
Maybe JH really needs firing no matter what, though I don't personally think so. I think he survives the year unless they really implode and lose to PSU.
They lost a very winnable game against a pretty good team on the road, it's not as if they are suddenly a terrible team.
No one said they are a terrible team. This is disconcerting trend that has been going on for 7 years straight- and Jim Harbaugh is very clearly a terrible coach when it comes to facing teams in ranked match-ups.
His .18% winning percentage in ranked match-ups on the road is literally the single worst of any coach at one school in history. Kirk Ferentz at Iowa and John Vaught at Mississippi were tied for 1st place at .250, until the crown prince of Michigan himself unseated them both at .182. EIGHTEEN F#CKING PERCENT.
This autistic dweeb wasn't paid $9 million a year and then had his salary cut in half this year for 18% and to be the #1 all-time loser in the stat.
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I thought it was the deep pass on the prior possession they had an issue with. There was contact in the end zone, and the no call resulted in a UM FG to make it 33-30, instead of a 1st down. It's hard to keep track of all of the things they want to whine about.
The pick play wasn't even close. I said in the SOC that it worked to perfection, but then McNamera either threw it to the wrong guy, or threw it too soon. The two MSU defenders collided, and he could have either thrown it to the guy going out, or waiting two steps and thrown it to the guy setting the pick, and either one was an easy TD.
don't even get me f#cking started on that. Idiots like Sam Webb and Rich Eisen crying like the bitches they are- when they should be HEATED and want to rip into Harbaugh, Mike MacDonald, and Cade McNamara.
This is a TREND with Harbaugh- and his team was up SIXTEEN points late into the 3rd QTR. The dude beefed a 16 point lead with maybe 21 mins left in the game. How is this on anybody else but him?
Mike MacDonald "the boy genius, savior from Don Brown!" was a joke. His defense got ran roughshod on and never adjusted. Walker ran for 200 and 5 TD's. He freaking dominated that sorry ass defensive front. They never tackled him all game long.
And Cade McNamara IS A BACK-UP QB. How long are Michigan fans going to blow this kid for until they realize he just isn't that good? He missed every single deep throw he attempted, a couple of which would've went for 6 to open WR's- and the very last deep throw they let him throw- the kid threw it right to the other team. He is NOT good. He's not a play-maker or a guy you can say- hey- we have to put the team on your back- go make plays and win us this game. That ain't him. He's a dink and dunker, game manager. At best.
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My guess is he gets one more year, at least, unless they have a clear succession plan. The next guy they hire could easily be no better, and can well be worse.
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Simple odds would suggest that he's much more likely to be worse than better.
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My guess is he gets one more year, at least, unless they have a clear succession plan. The next guy they hire could easily be no better, and can well be worse.
They've put themselves in a weird position, by not firing him after last year. Say he goes from 2-4 to 10-2 and a NY6 Bowl. That was basically what he was doing every year before 2020, so to retain him off 2020, what did he have to do to keep his job in 2021? Was it national title or bust? And then if they do retain him, and then he does the same thing next year, then do you let him go? It's a very weird position to be in, as a helmet school that isn't competing for national titles, but is still very good. This isn't Nebraska or Tennessee or USC struggling to make bowls. If he were doing this at Wisconsin, or Michigan State, or Iowa, they'd be ready to put a statue up.
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Simple odds would suggest that he's much more likely to be worse than better.
this. coaches typically wind down and the winning wanes.
very rarely do you see it go the other way.
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They've put themselves in a weird position, by not firing him after last year. Say he goes from 2-4 to 10-2 and a NY6 Bowl. That was basically what he was doing every year before 2020, so to retain him off 2020, what did he have to do to keep his job in 2021? Was it national title or bust? And then if they do retain him, and then he does the same thing next year, then do you let him go? It's a very weird position to be in, as a helmet school that isn't competing for national titles, but is still very good. This isn't Nebraska or Tennessee or USC struggling to make bowls. If he were doing this at Wisconsin, or Michigan State, or Iowa, they'd be ready to put a statue up.
I think he's gone.
They were paying this fool close to $9 million a year and they cut his salary by more than half and got his buyout to basically nothing. It would be basically free to get rid of him now compared to what it would cost for other schools to get rid of their big name coaches.
They didn't cut his salary and reduce that buyout for him to have another embarrassing close loss he beefed to MSU and to see him get blown out by Ohio State again. Mel Tucker put the stake in Jim's heart, Ryan Day is about to pound it through once Ohio State completely destroys Michigan and runs them off the field and wins by 30+ points like they did in 2018 and 2019 and would've done in 2020 had Michigan not chickened out and canceled the game.
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No one said they are a terrible team. This is disconcerting trend that has been going on for 7 years straight- and Jim Harbaugh is very clearly a terrible coach when it comes to facing teams in ranked match-ups.
His .18% winning percentage in ranked match-ups on the road is literally the single worst of any coach at one school in history. Kirk Ferentz at Iowa and John Vaught at Mississippi were tied for 1st place at .250, until the crown prince of Michigan himself unseated them both at .182. EIGHTEEN F#CKING PERCENT.
This autistic dweeb wasn't paid $9 million a year and then had his salary cut in half this year for 18% and to be the #1 all-time loser in the stat.
Where is this list?
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That 18% winning percentage can't be the overall worst for any coach at any school. Some coaches stay at programs like K State a long time and have pretty bad teams routinely that would lose every game to any decent team. Maybe it's for ranked teams playing ranked opponents.
At any rate, there is an obvious risk of going from not adequate to worse.
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They've put themselves in a weird position, by not firing him after last year. Say he goes from 2-4 to 10-2 and a NY6 Bowl. That was basically what he was doing every year before 2020, so to retain him off 2020, what did he have to do to keep his job in 2021? Was it national title or bust? And then if they do retain him, and then he does the same thing next year, then do you let him go? It's a very weird position to be in, as a helmet school that isn't competing for national titles, but is still very good. This isn't Nebraska or Tennessee or USC struggling to make bowls. If he were doing this at Wisconsin, or Michigan State, or Iowa, they'd be ready to put a statue up.
similar to Solich....
2002 he goes 7-7, absolutely unheard of at the time
then 2003 goes 9-3 with a 10th win in the bowl game
huge improvement, but fired before the bowl game
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Purdue’s last three coaches vs ranked road opponents
1-5 .166
0-something .000
0-6
At some point, I want to check Osborne. Will report back.
Paul Chryst is 3-5. As a .735 coach.
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similar to Solich....
2002 he goes 7-7, absolutely unheard of at the time
then 2003 goes 9-3 with a 10th win in the bowl game
huge improvement, but fired before the bowl game
I don’t know if he would’ve got it back on track.
I can safely say they’re 1-3 on hires since.
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That 18% winning percentage can't be the overall worst for any coach at any school. Some coaches stay at programs like K State a long time and have pretty bad teams routinely that would lose every game to any decent team. Maybe it's for ranked teams playing ranked opponents.
At any rate, there is an obvious risk of going from not adequate to worse.
That's the way I understood it.
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Simple odds would suggest that he's much more likely to be worse than better.
Yeah, but you usually wait until someone actually does some level of worse.
Then again, you fire, take a chance on a coach who comes in with a worse resume than Harbs, chances are you’ll be worse too, but it’ll feel a little better because there’s more hope of the unknown to cling to
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Yeah, I meant that you are more likely to replace him with a coach that's worse than better.
Take all the Helmet HCs since 2000, and see how they stack up against Harbaugh.
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If I had a guy in mind I really thought was an upgrade and he was interested, I'd do it (duh). Some ADs seem to fire their guy without the FNG in mind.
Imagine they win out except OSU and then win an NY6 game against say A&M.
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That 18% winning percentage can't be the overall worst for any coach at any school. Some coaches stay at programs like K State a long time and have pretty bad teams routinely that would lose every game to any decent team. Maybe it's for ranked teams playing ranked opponents.
At any rate, there is an obvious risk of going from not adequate to worse.
I've been thinking this ever since I first saw that listed as "worst ever". I have no idea where to go to prove that is not correct, but it simply can't be.
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That's the way I understood it.
So he’s 2-9. That means he’s losing like 1.3 per season, though that might go down, pending the PSU games.
It’s also weird because he’s literally never lost as an unranked road team to a ranked team. They’ve also played no such games.
This strikes me as a mostly fancy way to complain. If your coach isn’t doing as well as you’d like, they’re losing somewhere against someone. The most likely ones are gonna be on the road against good opponents. The stat is sort of deeply random if you start counting it out and thinking about it.
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U-M's struggles began long before Jim Harbaugh was anointed the savior of Michigan football. Former head coach Rich Rodriguez Rodriguez finished his Michigan coaching career 0–3 against Ohio State and 0–3 against Michigan State, along with the lowest winning percentage (.405) of any coach in the history of the program. Though Brady Hoke fared slightly better, he finished his Michigan coaching career with a combined 2-6 record against both Michigan State and Ohio State.
Combined, Harbaugh's predecessors went a whopping 2-12 against Michigan's biggest rivals during a seven year stretch.
Though things have improved slightly under Harbaugh's watch, he's still a combined 3-9 against Michigan State and Ohio State, 0-2 against current MSU head coach Mel Tucker, 0-1 against current OSU head coach Ryan Day and now 0-9 against AP top 15 opponents on the road.
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So he’s 2-9. That means he’s losing like 1.3 per season, though that might go down, pending the PSU games.
It’s also weird because he’s literally never lost as an unranked road team to a ranked team. They’ve also played no such games.
This strikes me as a mostly fancy way to complain. If your coach isn’t doing as well as you’d like, they’re losing somewhere against someone. The most likely ones are gonna be on the road against good opponents. The stat is sort of deeply random if you start counting it out and thinking about it.
Yes. Someone who already wants their coach fired:
"He's never won against a coach of Irish heritage in the state New Jersey when it's raining but above 65 degrees, in a night game! Coach John Q. Random, a division rival, is 5-0 in those games! Fire his worthless ass!"
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Yes. Someone who already wants their coach fired:
"He's never won against a coach of Irish heritage in the state New Jersey when it's raining but above 65 degrees, in a night game! Coach John Q. Random, a division rival, is 5-0 in those games! Fire his worthless ass!"
Yep.
The logic of firing might be pretty sound. He can’t field teams better than the best rival. He’s not holding serve vs the next rival. He isn’t winning bowls, which impacts mood. And he doesn’t have that team as a clear No. 2 in the conference of division.
If you feel that ices him, even after 10-2, fine. They can play roulette and see if someone else can get them to the last one.
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Georgia did it and it worked out pretty OK for them.
This line of thinking is a fallacy. You fire the guy if he's clearly not up to par and you go through the interview process and find a coach.
Georgia is in VASTLY better recruiting territory than Michigan.
My view is that the relative strength of your local/regional recruiting base basically sets a baseline for coaches. If you are Florida/Miami/Georgia/Texas/Ohio State you have LOTS of high-end recruits in your area and any competent coach should be able to average at least something like .700. Thus, if you are one of those schools and your guy is consistently going .700 then you don't have all that much risk in firing him.
Conversely, Michigan, Tennessee, and Nebraska simply do NOT enjoy that luxury. Michigan has a decent number of recruits but WAY less than Ohio and the Wolverines have in-state competition from the Spartans. Thus, I do not think that Michigan/Tennessee/Nebraska can just hire any random competent coach and go .700. That makes firing a .700 coach MUCH more risky. Harbaugh is 56-23 at Michigan (.709). I'm not sure how much better they could do, but I am ABSOLUTELY certain that they could do a LOT worse.
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The thing that all this talk about losses to ranked teams, terrible records against ranked teams on the road, etc ignores is Harbaugh's greatest strength. His Michigan teams have EXTREMELY few significant upsets. Excluding the odd pandemic year of 2020, here are all 19 of Harbuagh's losses at Michigan by final AP ranking of opponent:
- #3, 2015 tOSU
- #3, 2019 tOSU
- #4, 2015 tOSU
- #5, 2017 tOSU
- #5, 2018 ND
- #5 (currently), 2021 MSU
- #6, 2015 MSU
- #6, 2016 tOSU
- #7, 2017 UW
- #7, 2018 UF
- #8, 2016 FSU
- #8, 2017 PSU
- #8, 2019 Bama
- #9, 2019 PSU
- #11, 2019 UW
- #15, 2017 MSU
- #17, 2015 Utah
- RV, 2016 Iowa
- RV, 2017 USCe
Fourteen of his 19 losses are to teams that finished in the top-10, 17 of the 19 are to teams that finished ranked, and even the two that did NOT finish ranked were close enough that they received votes.
It is easy to say that this is irrelevant because everybody should beat all of the bad teams that they play but literally nobody does. Ask Pete Carroll. Closer to home, ask Urban Meyer. Within Harbaugh's tenure Urban Meyer had losses to a 2018 Purdue team that finished sub .500 and a 2017 Iowa team that finished just 8-5. Technically 2017 Iowa was "RV" because they had two votes in the final poll but my point stands. Harbaugh's accomplishment of basically never losing to a bad team is a legitimate accomplishment that should not be overlooked.
Yes, Harbaugh is 0-5 against Ohio State and I fully understand your frustration with that. As someone who was in Jr High, HS, and college during the Cooper era, BELIEVE me, I understand. That said, Cooper lost to some bad and mediocre Michigan teams. The five Ohio State teams that Harbaugh has been defeated by finished #3, #3, #4, #5, and #6 in the final rankings. NOBODY has a very good record against teams that finished in the top-6.
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It's all about expectations. I'm sure Tennessee fans expected a major boost when they got rid of Fulmer. What really happened was a disaster. Maybe Heupel is the guy for them, maybe not. Their fans expect to be "relevant" in the SEC, which means winning the division at least one year in three if not more.
The last won the East in 2007 and the conference in 97-98. But their teams of late have been mediocre to pretty bad.
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similar to Solich....
then 2003 goes 9-3 with a 10th win in the bowl game
huge improvement, but fired before the bowl game
I don't remember them playing in any bowl game that year
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This highlights my issue, you fire your guy and then "discover" you are in desparation mode and have to catch someone near the bottom of any list.
Frankly I don't think it makes THAT big of a difference. There are plenty of examples of first choices that didn't work out and plan-b and plan-c guys that did. I think hiring a coach is almost a crapshoot.
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It is easy to say that this is irrelevant because everybody should beat all of the bad teams that they play but literally nobody does. Ask Pete Carroll. Closer to home, ask Urban Meyer. Within Harbaugh's tenure Urban Meyer had losses to a 2018 Purdue team that finished sub .500 and a 2017 Iowa team that finished just 8-5. Technically 2017 Iowa was "RV" because they had two votes in the final poll but my point stands. Harbaugh's accomplishment of basically never losing to a bad team is a legitimate accomplishment that should not be overlooked.
URBZ & Sneaky Pete won NC's and CCG's,that's the rub if I'm an M fan.MSU was ripe for the picking the last two years - RIPE.Their national draw now is fading,Jim's star is fading - but no skin off of my keister - extend his contract
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Most coaching changes don't work out for programs intent on winning the NC. If that is the expectation and goal, most coaches are not going to get there, and even those who do get fired in a few years often as not. If hiring a new guy is close to random, fine, but why expect the FNG to do better than JH? Or you keep cycling through until a good one shows up?
By then the program has ceded relevancy.
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I don't remember them playing in any bowl game that year
Of course you don't they beat MSU in the Alamo Bowl 17-3 that season,had to look it up though.You were yanking our chain weren't you?
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Most coaching changes don't work out for programs intent on winning the NC.
“insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results.” - who ever said it
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Frankly I don't think it makes THAT big of a difference. There are plenty of examples of first choices that didn't work out and plan-b and plan-c guys that did. I think hiring a coach is almost a crapshoot.
Like Mel Tucker after Luke Fickell said NO.
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Of course you don't they beat MSU in the Alamo Bowl 17-3 that season,had to look it up though
ELA thanks you for the refresher
I wasn't going to post a thing
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Most coaching changes don't work out for programs intent on winning the NC. If that is the expectation and goal, most coaches are not going to get there, and even those who do get fired in a few years often as not. If hiring a new guy is close to random, fine, but why expect the FNG to do better than JH? Or you keep cycling through until a good one shows up?
By then the program has ceded relevancy.
(https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2019/07/15022206/GettyImages-1077287294-1024x683.jpg)
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see Tennessee and Texas.. in great recruiting areas toss in USC
Since when is Tennessee a great recruiting area?
My theory on what went wrong for Tennessee is that too many of the nearby schools got good which watered down their recruiting which eroded their talent from elite to average and then they went down the spiral of bad coaching hires (some of which may not actually have been very bad given the situation) and here we are.
The recruits that Tennessee brought in to win their last NC (1998) were recruited during an era when UNC, USCe, Clemson, Georgia, the Mississippi schools, LSU and even Bama (to an extent) were not as good as they are now. Tennessee simply can't be elite on in-state talent. They need a significant number of non-local recruits to keep up but it has gotten MUCH harder to get those non-local recruits because programs in the states surrounding Tennessee have improved dramatically in the last ~25 years.
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Tennessee is NEAR good recruiting areas, and as noted have done well in the past. I doubt many nonlocal five stars give them a thought today. If they get back to 9-4ish and upset some folks they might get noticed. Texas is recruiting pretty well, it's a mystery why they are down, other than the obvious.
Fans are fickle. Luke is not.
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knock it off crap game
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Negative waves ....
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Most coaching changes don't work out for programs intent on winning the NC. If that is the expectation and goal, most coaches are not going to get there, and even those who do get fired in a few years often as not. If hiring a new guy is close to random, fine, but why expect the FNG to do better than JH? Or you keep cycling through until a good one shows up?
By then the program has ceded relevancy.
In my view, if you are Miami/Florida/Georgia/Texas/Ohio State, YES! Keep cycling through until you get it right. Those programs have fertile local recruiting grounds which create a floor that isn't THAT bad and their ceiling is NC so if you have a coach not at least in contention for NC's, fire him and try again. If you get it wrong, try again in a few years.
IMHO, it is different if you are Tennessee/Michigan/Nebraska. Those are schools that were all definitely helmets in the 1990's and prior. Nebraska won NC's in 1994, 1995, and 1997 while Michigan won one in 1997 and Tennessee won the inaugural BCSNC in 1998. So those three schools won a combined five NC's in the five years from 1994-1998 but they have won a combined zero since. The closest any of them have been since 1998 was probably Nebraska's BCSNCG loss to Miami and that was all the way back in 2001 in addition to not being a close game.
For a starker contrast, those three schools won a combined five NATIONAL titles in the five years from 1994-1998 and I'm not sure that they have a combined five league titles since. I'll check:
- 0 Tennessee, their last league title was 1998 when they won the NC under Phil Fulmer.
- 0 Nebraska, their last league title was in 1999. That one, along with 1997 were two of the first four B12 titles after the league formed in 1996.
- 3 Michigan: They won Big11Ten titles in 2000, 2003, and 2004.
So Tennessee, Nebraska, and Michigan which won a combined five NC's in the five years from 1994-1998 have won a combined zero league titles since 2004.
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NE corner of Tennessee is closer to Canada than Memphis.
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Conversely, if you are Michigan do you expect fans and donors to settle for 11-2 and 10-3 and 9-4 seasons losing to both main rivals? Most programs would be fine with those win totals. But if you expect more, well, you have to change coaches, and you risk getting less.
What do Michigan fans logically expect and desire? An NC every year? Hopefully not. A league title every year? Same, can't be. Maybe it's a CFP appearance twice a decade?
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NE corner of Tennessee is closer to Canada than Memphis.
You sure about that?Through Kentucky,Ohio and half a great lake
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(https://i.imgur.com/agEV3F7.png)
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The Canadian border is the same distance as the Florida border.
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You sure about that?Through Kentucky,Ohio and half a great lake
Yeah, if you use the NE corner of the state as the axis, and turn it on that axis, then Memphis will be over the Canadian border. It's a really wide state.
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You want to dominate your rival, but in most cases you are only going to beat them about half the time.
Harbaugh is 3-4 against MSU, and 1-1 vs Notre Dame.
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You sure about that?Through Kentucky,Ohio and half a great lake
Yeah, but it is the short way through Kentucky and the short way through Lake Erie.
(https://i.imgur.com/agEV3F7.png)
Out of curiosity, what program/site did you use to do this?
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You want to dominate your rival, but in most cases you are only going to beat them about half the time.
Harbaugh is 3-4 against MSU, and 1-1 vs Notre Dame.
WRT Coaching Change decisions the relevant question cannot be about wants, it has to be about expectations and those expectations have to be reasonable.
I'm an Ohio State fan. What do I want? Simple, I want to go undefeated, beat Michigan, win the B1G, and win the NC every year.
If I were tOSU's AD I'd still WANT that but it obviously isn't a reasonable expectation. What is . . .
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Out of curiosity, what program/site did you use to do this?
He purchased a device from Mr Haney
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Yeah, but it is the short way through Kentucky and the short way through Lake Erie. Out of curiosity, what program/site did you use to do this?
I used metmapdata app.
Or google.
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He purchased a device from Mr Haney
?
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Yeah, but it is the short way through Kentucky and the short way through Lake Erie. Out of curiosity, what program/site did you use to do this?
He actually extended the line too far. You can take a ferry from the Sandusky area to Pelee Island, which is in Ontario.
(https://www.toledoblade.com/image/2005/05/22/1140x_a10-7_cTC/Getting-to-the-Lake-Erie-islands.gif)
(https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LqAkEQTU3qQ/WWjDtu1tj6I/AAAAAAAAPNc/-3t8chmzx0s2Xhq2l5ksVzdQciUaLRSDwCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-07-14%2Bat%2B9.13.27%2BAM.png)
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?
Green Acres - perhaps before your time
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He actually extended the line too far. You can take a ferry from the Sandusky area to Pelee Island, which is in Ontario.
(https://www.toledoblade.com/image/2005/05/22/1140x_a10-7_cTC/Getting-to-the-Lake-Erie-islands.gif)
(https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LqAkEQTU3qQ/WWjDtu1tj6I/AAAAAAAAPNc/-3t8chmzx0s2Xhq2l5ksVzdQciUaLRSDwCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-07-14%2Bat%2B9.13.27%2BAM.png)
I've never taken the ferry to Pelee but a friend used to take his boat up there all the time to get Canadian Beer. I tagged along on that ride on the way to PIB a few times . . . Good Times (from what I've been told).
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I've never taken the ferry to Pelee but a friend used to take his boat up there all the time to get Canadian Beer. I tagged along on that ride on the way to PIB a few times . . . Good Times (from what I've been told).
Did you have to go through customs?
Or did you just scoot across undetected?
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Did you have to go through customs?
Or did you just scoot across undetected?
Fortunately we didn't because I'm not sure if it was legal to "import" beer from Canada into the US. I *THINK* there is an exemption for small quantities and it isn't like we were bringing back a truckload, just what we planned to drink at PIB that weekend. Ya know, 4-5 cases each, LoL.
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What expectations would a rational Michigan fan have for the next decade under a new coach? (Oxymoron alert).
There are only a scant few programs able to make the CFP almost annually, or at least get close. Let's say success is averaging at least ten wins a season and winning the conference 3 times in a decade, is that rational?
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Michigan podcast guy upthread says he expects one Big Ten Title per decade, and to beat OSU at least as often as Purdue does.
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What expectations would a rational Michigan fan have for the next decade under a new coach? (Oxymoron alert).
There are only a scant few programs able to make the CFP almost annually, or at least get close. Let's say success is averaging at least ten wins a season and winning the conference 3 times in a decade, is that rational?
For a Blue Blood prolly
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Tennessee is NEAR good recruiting areas, and as noted have done well in the past. I doubt many nonlocal five stars give them a thought today. If they get back to 9-4ish and upset some folks they might get noticed. Texas is recruiting pretty well, it's a mystery why they are down, other than the obvious.
Fans are fickle. Luke is not.
Tennessee always recruits well. Not for local reasons, but other reasons.
The portal took half the roster, they’re all the way down to 19th in starz, with five stars from South Georgia and WV.
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Michigan podcast guy upthread says he expects one Big Ten Title per decade, and to beat OSU at least as often as Purdue does.
see, hand in hand, Purdue beats OSU once per decade
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see, hand in hand, Purdue beats OSU once per decade
In this Millennium Purdue has averaged 2.5 OSU wins per decade.
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ok, so ya lose a couple Big Ten Champ games to Wisconsin or Minnesoota or Northwestern
::::Wait a minute::::
that would never happen!
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Yeah, the others all know their place.
Bloody Purdue...
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I don't know what Michigan fans want, the real fans, not the clowns. One league title a decade? That strikes me as rational.
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I'd imagine that they'd like to do a little bit better than that.
3 or 4 maybe? I dunno.
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they'd like to be 50% vs Ohio St and 75% vs Michigan St
that would be a good start, then they could get really greedy
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I don't know what Michigan fans want, the real fans, not the clowns. One league title a decade? That strikes me as rational.
You're f**king joking, right? That is not rational. At all.
Bo Schembechler won 13 league titles in his 21 years at Michigan. Michigan last won 3 B1G titles in a row and they haven't won a B1G title since 2004. That's SEVENTEEN years.
Michigan is 4-10 vs Michigan State in the last 14 games.
Michigan is about to be 2-18 vs Ohio State in the last 20 games.
This is NOT acceptable, period. Michigan should be winning the B1G title every few years, they should be dominating Michigan State, and they should at least able to hold serve with Ohio State. THAT is and always has been the expectation at Michigan.
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There are not split titles these days. To win the B1G East means you need to go 8-1 pretty much AND beat Ohio State, and THEN win the CG. If expectations are that Michigan should win 3-4 league titles in a decade, well, good luck with that.
One title a decade to me sounds rational, as an expectation, and two a decade sounds OK to me. Over that I personally find irrational.
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There are not split titles these days. To win the B1G East means you need to go 8-1 pretty much AND beat Ohio State, and THEN win the CG. If expectations are that Michigan should win 3-4 league titles in a decade, well, good luck with that.
One title a decade to me sounds rational, as an expectation, and two a decade sounds OK to me. Over that I personally find irrational.
Nah. The B1G today is same as it was back then when it was Big 2 Little 8. YOU HAVE TO BEAT OHIO STATE TO WIN IT. B1G TITLE GOES THROUGH OHIO STATE. Period.
Michigan has not been able to beat Ohio State for jackshit- and they have now been struggling with their in-state rival whom they used to dominate. Go look at the records in the 70s, 80's, 90s, early 2000s. Michigan State might've beaten Michigan one a decade. Now Michigan is lucky to beat Michigan State more than a few times every decade and a half.
Michigan has NOT been performing against it's main rivals. Harbaugh was brought on to remedy that situation. He is incapable of remedying it, therefore he must go.
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it's really this simple, if you're at Michigan you're paid to dominate Michigan State and you're paid to win at least half your games vs Ohio State.
Group 1
Bo Schembechler - 11-9-1 vs Ohio State, 17-4 vs Michigan State
Gary Moeller - 3-1-1 vs Ohio State, 3-2 vs Michigan State
Lloyd Carr - 6-7 vs Ohio State, 10-3 vs Michigan State
Group 2
RichRod - 0-3 vs Ohio State, 0-3 vs Michigan State
Brady Hoke - 1-3 vs Ohio State, 1-3 vs Michigan State
Jim Harbaugh - 0-6 vs Ohio State, 3-4 vs Michigan State (0-2 to MSU new stud coach)
One of these groups is not like the other.
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Michigan has NOT been performing against it's main rivals. Harbaugh was brought on to remedy that situation. He is incapable of remedying it, therefore he must go.
Agreed the answer is out there might as well start your search.Sparty picked up mel on a reach and in a pinch
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it's really this simple, if you're at Michigan you're paid to dominate Michigan State and you're paid to win at least half your games vs Ohio State.
Group 1
Bo Schembechler - 11-9-1 vs Ohio State, 17-4 vs Michigan State
Gary Moeller - 3-1-1 vs Ohio State, 3-2 vs Michigan State
Lloyd Carr - 6-7 vs Ohio State, 10-3 vs Michigan State
Your Michigan numbers are staggered however as both Woody and Earle had winning records against UM.Bo won 1 more game vs Woody but Earle won i more game vs Bo.Then Cooper,then Tress/Urbz
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Your Michigan numbers are staggered however as both Woody and Earle had winning records aginst UM.Bo won 1 more game vs Woody but Earle won i more game vs Bo.Then Cooper,then Tress/Urbz
was not comparing overall record of coaches vs coaches, was showing the coaches records vs teams. Michigan has had 6 coaches since 1969-present.
Bo won more than he lost vs Ohio State and dominated MSU.
Moeller did better vs OSU than he did vs MSU- but was ahead of both.
Carr was just under .500 vs OSU but he absolutely dominated MSU.
While Michigan's last 3 coaches have all been god awful vs both MSU and OSU.
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guys I would be looking at...in no order...
Joe Brady
Dave Aranda
Jim Leonhard
Luke Fickell
Bill O'Brien
Tony Alford
Ken Dorsey
Brian Daboll
Kellen Moore
Kevin O'Connell
Dan Lanning
Interview 50+ guys, leave no stone unturned.
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There are not split titles these days. To win the B1G East means you need to go 8-1 pretty much AND beat Ohio State, and THEN win the CG. If expectations are that Michigan should win 3-4 league titles in a decade, well, good luck with that.
One title a decade to me sounds rational, as an expectation, and two a decade sounds OK to me. Over that I personally find irrational.
Nah. The B1G today is same as it was back then when it was Big 2 Little 8. YOU HAVE TO BEAT OHIO STATE TO WIN IT. B1G TITLE GOES THROUGH OHIO STATE. Period.
Michigan has not been able to beat Ohio State for jackshit- and they have now been struggling with their in-state rival whom they used to dominate. Go look at the records in the 70s, 80's, 90s, early 2000s. Michigan State might've beaten Michigan one a decade. Now Michigan is lucky to beat Michigan State more than a few times every decade and a half.
Michigan has NOT been performing against it's main rivals. Harbaugh was brought on to remedy that situation. He is incapable of remedying it, therefore he must go.
I agree with Mdot here. Michigan and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop in the conference. I think you should pretty much expect them to win the East 7 out of 10 years, possibly more.
Michigan should be able to be somewhere in the range of .500 against OSU to be able to say they're holding up their end of the rivalry. That's 3.5 division titles per decade.
The East should be able to beat the West in the CCG in the current configuration at IMHO a 75% clip in the 7 of 10 years where M or OSU wins (if it's a broken year and it's PSU or MSU it's a much more even matchup).
75% of 3.5 is a little over 2.6 titles per decade.
Two per decade would seem to be a little bit of a letdown but acceptable for a team like Michigan. 3+ is gravy.
One per decade, when you're the University of Michigan football team, means that you're not living up to your shiny helmet.
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was not comparing overall record of coaches vs coaches, was showing the coaches records vs teams. Michigan has had 6 coaches since 1969-present.
Bo won more than he lost vs Ohio State and dominated MSU.
Moeller did better vs OSU than he did vs MSU- but was ahead of both.
Carr was just under .500 vs OSU but he absolutely dominated MSU.
While Michigan's last 3 coaches have all been god awful vs both MSU and OSU.
If Michigan is going to fire coaches for not winning, as you put it, "more than half" against Ohio State then you are going to fire a LOT of coaches.
The only coaches in modern Michigan history with winning records against Ohio State have those records ONLY because they were fortunate enough to coach against John Cooper. Here is your list:
Group 1
Bo Schembechler - 11-9-1 vs Ohio State, 17-4 vs Michigan State
Gary Moeller - 3-1-1 vs Ohio State, 3-2 vs Michigan State
Lloyd Carr - 6-7 vs Ohio State, 10-3 vs Michigan State
- Bo Schembechler, an absolute LEGEND at Michigan, was 5-4-1 against Woody and 4-5 against Earle so in his first 19 years at Michigan he was exactly .500 at 9-9-1. This is a guy who is an absolute LEGEND at Michigan and he didn't win "more than half" of his games against Ohio State until Cooper was brought on in Columbus and he wan his last two to finish with an 11-9-1 record against the Buckeyes.
- Gary Moeller was 3-1-1 all against Cooper.
- Lloyd Carr was 5-1 against Cooper then 1-6 against Tresssel.
You already listed the records for Rodriguez, Hoke, and Harbaugh:
Group 2
RichRod - 0-3 vs Ohio State, 0-3 vs Michigan State
Brady Hoke - 1-3 vs Ohio State, 1-3 vs Michigan State
Jim Harbaugh - 0-6 vs Ohio State, 3-4 vs Michigan State (0-2 to MSU new stud coach)
That is all six Michigan Coaches since 1969 and none of them had a winning record against Ohio State teams not coached by John Cooper. What about before Schembechler? Well:
- Bump Elliott coached Michigan from 1959-1968 and went 3-7 against the Buckeyes.
- Bennie Ooseterbaan coached Michigan from 1948-1958 and went 5-5-1 against the Buckeyes, .500 same as Bo pre-Cooper.
- Fritz Crisler coached Michigan from 1938-1947 and went 7-2-1 against the Buckeyes.
The last Michigan coach to have a winning record against Ohio State teams not coached by John Cooper:
- was born in the 19th century
- was hired during the depression
- coached Michigan through WWII
- got lucky in that Ohio State's fantastic young coach in the early 1940's was drafted into the Army
- coached his last Michigan game more than 70 years ago on January 1, 1948
- died almost 40 years ago in 1982.
Aside from Cooper's tenure in Columbus the Wolverines haven't consistently won "more than half" of their games against Ohio State since before the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI). That was 80 years ago next month.
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The only coaches in modern Michigan history with winning records against Ohio State have those records ONLY because they were fortunate enough to coach against John Cooper.
well, if you can't beat 'em ya gotta find a way to get 'em to hire a Cooper
it's a derned rivalry - no excuses
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There is also the Penn St factor now. If all three teams are humming, then each would win approximately 1/3 of the B1G East Titles in a given decade. Plus the B1G West is going to pick one of them off here and there in the CCG.
The Michigan HC should go all in on beating OSU. Don't talk about getting to Indy or making the Playoffs, just all OSU all the time. If they build a team that can compete with OSU on a regular basis, then the Big Ten titles and Playoff appearances will simply be a byproduct of that.
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The Michigan HC should go all in on beating OSU. Don't talk about getting to Indy or making the Playoffs, just all OSU all the time. If they build a team that can compete with OSU on a regular basis, then the Big Ten titles and Playoff appearances will simply be a byproduct of that.
SHUT-UP-YOU,whose side are you on?let them figure it out,go find your second wife or a Detroit Pizza or something
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Let's imagine expected success as beating OSU 4 times in ten. Then you also have to beat Penn State of course and MSU, which might not happen once in a decade when it really counts. Penn State might win out. So, you get to the CG 3 times in a decade, and then win half.
It's not easy to win the Big Ten as things stand now. Expecting to win 4 times a decade or more strikes me as unrealistic.
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There is also the Penn St factor now. If all three teams are humming, then each would win approximately 1/3 of the B1G East Titles in a given decade. Plus the B1G West is going to pick one of them off here and there in the CCG.
Pennsylvania State University joined the Big Ten in 1990
30 years and 3 decades, Son
nothing new
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Nah. Big Ten Titles are easy. National Titles are hard.
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that's what the Sooners and the Clemson Tiggers say
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I've seen some pretty lame OSU teams cruise to a conference title.
The Conference really doesn't offer up all that much resistance.
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that's what the Sooners and the Clemson Tiggers say
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The Conference really doesn't offer up all that much resistance.
Ninnies kept it close until late Spartans don't mind whizzing in our wheaties either.I don't see the next 3 games as locks at all
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that's what the Sooners and the Clemson Tiggers say
they are correct. Their conferences don't offer up much resistance either.
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Ninnies kept it close until late Spartans don't mind whizzing in our wheaties either.I don't see the next 3 games as locks at all
Yeah, there's like three or four teams that you have to keep your guard up against.So long as you do that, bang! Big Ten Title.
Now if instead you want to be good enough to avoid getting your pants pulled down in the playoffs, you have to step it up several dozen notches.
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You're f**king joking, right? That is not rational. At all.
Bo Schembechler won 13 league titles in his 21 years at Michigan. Michigan last won 3 B1G titles in a row and they haven't won a B1G title since 2004. That's SEVENTEEN years.
Michigan is 4-10 vs Michigan State in the last 14 games.
Michigan is about to be 2-18 vs Ohio State in the last 20 games.
This is NOT acceptable, period. Michigan should be winning the B1G title every few years, they should be dominating Michigan State, and they should at least able to hold serve with Ohio State. THAT is and always has been the expectation at Michigan.
As @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) already pointed out, there are no more split titles. That is a HUMONGOUS difference. From 1896-2010 there were 167 league Champions in our league in 115 years or almost 1.5 per year. Starting with 2011 there obviously can only be one Champion per year so the number to go around has dropped by about a third.
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I'm just curious about expectations. I think in a typical year there are 4-5-6 teams with a realistic shot at winning the conference. So, you need to be one of those teams annually, which is a good objective, and then probability takes over unless you are heads and shoulders above the others. Michigan can still win the conference this year of course. It would be ironic if they upset OSU, however unlikely that may seem.
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Michigan can still win the conference this year of course.It would be ironic if they upset OSU, however unlikely that may seem.
Or say Tennessee upset Georgia,that would satisfy my sense of irony
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I think the Vols have a shot, if they beat UK this weekend. If they lose to UK they might not have the courage left in the bag.
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IMHO, THE key question when considering a coaching change is what the program's reasonably expectation should be. I think you start with history. Michigan has 42 titles in this league and the league has been around for 115 years (not counting 2021). That works out to roughly one title every 2.73 years or 3.65 titles every decade.
Michigan was also out of the league for 10 seasons from 1907 through 1916 so they have 42 titles in 105 seasons of being in the league. That improves those figures slightly to one title every 2.5 years or almost exactly four titles every decade.
Then, as covered above, there are now roughly one-third less titles to go around so you would have to reduce that four titles per decade to 2.67.
That, I think, ignores the fact that Michigan's real glory years were mostly pre-WWII. Broken into era's:
- 6 titles in 11 years prior to dropping out of the league (1896-1906). This is 5.45 per decade.
- 9 titles in 17 years immediately after rejoining the league (1917-1933). This is 5.29 per decade.
- 6 titles in 35 years from the middle of the depression up until just prior to Bo's arrival (1934-1968). This is 1.71 per decade.
- 21 titles in 36 years under Bo and his immediate successors until they stopped winning titles (1969-2004). This is 5.8 per decade.
- 0 titles in 16 years since their last (2005-2020). This is obviously zero per decade.
So what you have are three REALLY high peaks of 5+ titles per decade covering a total of 64 years from 1896-1906, 1917-1933, and 1968-2004. Then you have two valleys of <2 titles per decade covering a total of 51 years from 1934-1968 and 2005-present.
I realize that most Michigan fans are going to look at that and say "64>51 so we should be able to maintain the peaks". I don't think so. The titles from 1896-1906 and 1917-1933 are frankly ancient history. The AP Poll didn't start until 1936. These are the "leather helmet" titles.
To an extent you could say the same thing about some of the 1934-1968 valley but I would put the beginning of the "modern era" at roughly post-WWII. In the post-WWII era here is what Michigan has done:
- EXTREMELY good immediately after the war. Michigan won four-straight league titles from 1947-1950.
- Basically a complete non-factor from 1951 until hiring Bo. Michigan won a grand total of ONE league title in the 18 years from 1951-1968.
- EXTREMELY good (at least within the league, less impressive nationally) from the hiring of Bo through 2004. Michigan won 21 titles in 36 years from 1969-2004.
- Basically a complete non-factor from 2005-present. Michigan hasn't won a league title in the 16 seasons since 2004.
What is "Michigan's normal"? Is is the 41 years from 1946-1950 and 1969-2004 when they were winning 5+ titles per decade or is it the 1951-1968 and 2005-present when they won one title in 34 years?
I don't think that Michigan's normal and their expectation should be as low as the valley but I also don't think it should be as high as the peak.
Personally, I think that @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) 's two per decade is reasonable. @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) came up with 2.6 but I think he is a little high for two reasons:
- I don't think he is giving PSU enough credit. Long-term I think they are in a great recruiting situation as the NE-most "helmet" and should be every bit as good as Michigan and possibly as good as
- Ohio State. Beta said that tOSU and Michigan should win 7/10 B1G-E titles then just allocated that 50/50. I'm not seeing that. Absolute legend Bo only broke even with Ohio State and I can throw in all kinds of qualifiers. For one thing, Bo was 2-4-1 against Woody in his first seven years before winning three straight against the Buckeyes in Woody's last three years. I think that post-1975 was post-peak Woody. I think Earle was a good coach but hardly great, and then Bo got to coach against Cooper who was absolutely phenomenal for all but the last two games of the season where he was complete crap. The Cooper factor is huge here. As I showed above, no Michigan coach has done better than .500 against non-Cooper tOSU teams in almost 80 years. I'm not saying that I expect tOSU's recent dominance to continue forever but even if you take just one game per decade away from Michigan that likely drops their division titles from 3.5 to 2.5 and their league titles from 2.6 to 1.9 (using Beta's logic otherwise).
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Bo Schembechler won 13 league titles in his 21 years at Michigan.
Just one more thing on this, do you know how many of those were outright titles? Five. Here are Bo's titles:
- 69 split with tOSU
- 71 outright
- 72 split with tOSU
- 73 split with tOSU
- 74 split with tOSU
- 76 split with tOSU
- 77 split with tOSU
- 78 split with MSU
- 80 outright
- 82 outright
- 86 split with tOSU
- 88 outright
- 89 outright
Times are just different now. During Woody and Bo's 10 Year War the Buckeyes and Wolverines won eight titles EACH plus MSU won one as well. That is 17 total titles in 10 years or 1.7 titles per year. Today there are ONLY 10 titles per decade to be won.
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split titles shouldn't be counted unless you held the head to head tiebreaker
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split titles shouldn't be counted unless you held the head to head tiebreaker
What if they didn't play each other?
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What if they didn't play each other?
Or if three teams went 1-1 against each other and shared the title.
As a practical matter I'm not going to go through 115 years of league history and figure out which titles we think should be deleted. I'm just going to use the league's official records.
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sure those scenarios are fine, split the title
as a practical matter I don't blame you, not worth the extra effort
just saying, as we all know... claiming a title when the tiebreaker is head to head and one team lost is just silly
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sure those scenarios are fine, split the title
as a practical matter I don't blame you, not worth the extra effort
just saying, as we all know... claiming a title when the tiebreaker is head to head and one team lost is just silly
Often times the Big Ten would award the Rose Bowl to the losing team in that scenario.
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well, perhaps not often, but enough to really piss off Bo
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Often times the Big Ten would award the Rose Bowl to the losing team in that scenario.
Aside from the no-repeat rule which wasn't a tiebreaker but rather just a way to spread RB appearances around, I don't know of this happening.
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Yeah, the no repeat rule. Didn't matter who won the H-H.
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1973 Buckeyes and Wolverines annual football game between Michigan and Ohio State ended in a 10-10 tie, but one team still won and the other team lost. The game caused much angst among two sizable fan bases and ultimately changed the Big Ten Conference's bowl structure for good.
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The Michigan HC should go all in on beating OSU. Don't talk about getting to Indy or making the Playoffs, just all OSU all the time. If they build a team that can compete with OSU on a regular basis, then the Big Ten titles and Playoff appearances will simply be a byproduct of that.
Bingo. This is just fact.
Tressel turned it around at Ohio State by basically stating day one at that basketball game that he was all in 24/7, 365 on beating Michigan.
The Michigan program entire MO has to be- BEAT OHIO STATE. They need to live it and breathe it 24/7, 365. They need a coach who will do nothing but preach that 24/7, 365- BEAT OHIO STATE.
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Personally, I think that @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) 's two per decade is reasonable. @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) came up with 2.6 but I think he is a little high for two reasons:
- I don't think he is giving PSU enough credit. Long-term I think they are in a great recruiting situation as the NE-most "helmet" and should be every bit as good as Michigan and possibly as good as
- Ohio State. Beta said that tOSU and Michigan should win 7/10 B1G-E titles then just allocated that 50/50. I'm not seeing that. Absolute legend Bo only broke even with Ohio State and I can throw in all kinds of qualifiers. For one thing, Bo was 2-4-1 against Woody in his first seven years before winning three straight against the Buckeyes in Woody's last three years. I think that post-1975 was post-peak Woody. I think Earle was a good coach but hardly great, and then Bo got to coach against Cooper who was absolutely phenomenal for all but the last two games of the season where he was complete crap. The Cooper factor is huge here. As I showed above, no Michigan coach has done better than .500 against non-Cooper tOSU teams in almost 80 years. I'm not saying that I expect tOSU's recent dominance to continue forever but even if you take just one game per decade away from Michigan that likely drops their division titles from 3.5 to 2.5 and their league titles from 2.6 to 1.9 (using Beta's logic otherwise).
Yeah, I'm not giving PSU much credit, but I think that's fair given what we've seen since they came into the league.
- 1993-2020 is 28 years, and they amassed 4 conference titles in that time. That's a little less than 1.5 per decade.
- Since division play started (2011), they've won the Leaders division once and won the East/B1GCCG once. So that's winning the division twice in the last decade.
- Their Leaders division title occurred in 2011, the year Fickell was the interim coach. So it relied on OSU having a down year. That was also part of the Brady Hoke era at Michigan, so it was admittedly a down coaching cycle for Michigan.
- In the 247 composite football rankings for 2021, Ohio State is 2nd nationally, Michigan is 13th, and Penn State is 21st. So they're not at the same talent level as the other two, despite being a helmet.
I think PSU and Nebraska are good teams, but I don't necessarily know that they're going to continue to keep their helmet quite as shiny as OSU and Michigan.
Regarding my head-to-head discussion of Michigan and Ohio State, I do agree that this is not historically 50/50. I was trying to look at it through the prism of a biased Michigan fan, though :57:
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If they need to win 3 or more conference titles a decade, I don't think any coach can do that there, I can be wrong of course. Two sounds to me like a reasonable objecive and metric, to me.
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If they need to win 3 or more conference titles a decade, I don't think any coach can do that there, I can be wrong of course. Two sounds to me like a reasonable objecive and metric, to me.
This is a stupid ass statement.
You don't think Nick Saban or Urban Meyer could win 3 or more conference titles at Michigan in a decade? Cause I sure as hell do.
3 a decade minimum should be the standard to keep your ass in that job.
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It's my OPINION. Maybe it is stupid. Michigan is not Ohio State in my view, not even close.
If that is the bar, I'm 99% confident they will fire coach after coach after coach.
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with the right coach in Ann Arbor and the right coach in Columbus, Michigan could win the Big Ten 4 or 5 times per decade
but, that's a long shot at the moment
Michigan would need to hire "that" guy and either Day would have to under-perform or move on for one reason or another
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It's my OPINION. Maybe it is stupid. Michigan is not Ohio State in my view, not even close.
If that is the bar, I'm 99% confident they will fire coach after coach after coach.
Yeah, great observation. Except there is nothing in your opinion which supports your stupid argument that Michigan should just expect to lose to Ohio State forever and not try to win the B1G title more than once a decade.
Michigan is 58-51-6 vs Ohio State all-time.
From 1969-2007- nearly 30 years from the Bo Schembechler to Lloyd Carr eras- Michigan was 20-17-2 vs Ohio State.
And it's been ALL downhill since. 1-11. Jim Tressel turned the tide in this series, Urban ratcheted it up, and Ryan Day is keeping it going vs Jim The Retard.
Time to say bye bye to CTE stricken autistic moron and get a new head coach in there who has one goal- beat Ohio State.
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It's my OPINION. Maybe it is stupid. Michigan is not Ohio State in my view, not even close.
If that is the bar, I'm 99% confident they will fire coach after coach after coach.
So they have become the Big Ten's Mississippi State, where they just expect to be like Bama unrealistically?
I like it.
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Regarding my head-to-head discussion of Michigan and Ohio State, I do agree that this is not historically 50/50. I was trying to look at it through the prism of a biased Michigan fan, though :57:
Yeah, great observation. Except there is nothing in your opinion which supports your stupid argument that Michigan should just expect to lose to Ohio State forever and not try to win the B1G title more than once a decade.
Michigan is 58-51-6 vs Ohio State all-time.
From 1969-2007- nearly 30 years from the Bo Schembechler to Lloyd Carr eras- Michigan was 20-17-2 vs Ohio State.
And it's been ALL downhill since. 1-11. Jim Tressel turned the tide in this series, Urban ratcheted it up, and Ryan Day is keeping it going vs Jim The Retard.
Time to say bye bye to CTE stricken autistic moron and get a new head coach in there who has one goal- beat Ohio State.
See?
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Ole Miss won the SEC fairly often a LONG time ago, that doesn't mean anything today. Tennessee won the SEC pretty often as well, and only 20 some years ago. That dosn't mean anything either. If Tennessee fans expect Huepel to win the SEC three times or more in a decade, they will continue their coaching cycling.
And it is possible my expectations for UM are too low.
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Yeah, great observation. Except there is nothing in your opinion which supports your stupid argument that Michigan should just expect to lose to Ohio State forever and not try to win the B1G title more than once a decade.
Michigan is 58-51-6 vs Ohio State all-time.
When Fielding Yost was playing Stevedores and the Flying Wedge was the rage 120 yrs ago isn't applicable
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The Big Ten became the Big Ten in 1953. How many times has Michigan won 5 outright Big Ten championships in a 10-year span?
Once.
1988-1997.
The fun part about that? It occurred under 3 different HCs, lol.
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They love sharing, though.
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The Big Ten became the Big Ten in 1953.
until it became the big 11 in 1990
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The Big Ten became the Big Ten in 1953. How many times has Michigan won 5 outright Big Ten championships in a 10-year span?
Once.
1988-1997.
The fun part about that? It occurred under 3 different HCs, lol.
.
They love sharing, though.
Aka, the John Cooper era
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and then, Coop was fired!
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymjuUfUhBdM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymjuUfUhBdM
Valenti is dead on.
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Yeah, I'm not giving PSU much credit, but I think that's fair given what we've seen since they came into the league.
- 1993-2020 is 28 years, and they amassed 4 conference titles in that time. That's a little less than 1.5 per decade.
- Since division play started (2011), they've won the Leaders division once and won the East/B1GCCG once. So that's winning the division twice in the last decade.
- Their Leaders division title occurred in 2011, the year Fickell was the interim coach. So it relied on OSU having a down year. That was also part of the Brady Hoke era at Michigan, so it was admittedly a down coaching cycle for Michigan.
- In the 247 composite football rankings for 2021, Ohio State is 2nd nationally, Michigan is 13th, and Penn State is 21st. So they're not at the same talent level as the other two, despite being a helmet.
I think PSU and Nebraska are good teams, but I don't necessarily know that they're going to continue to keep their helmet quite as shiny as OSU and Michigan.
I admit there isn't much in the way of recent evidence to back it up but I've just always believed that being the most Northeasterly "Helmet" is a great position for PSU to be in and that if they ever got the right situation going there they could REALLY be scary. Also, while PSU only has four titles in their 28 years in the league, Michigan only has five in the same time so it isn't like the Wolverines are running away from the Nittany Lions there.
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Yo guys go on and on about things that are pointless. It doesn’t matter what this one did 20, 30, 50, or 75 years ago. The landscape has changed. The Big Ten is now 14, demographics have changed, competitors have emerged, competitors have faded.
I don’t know much at all about either football in Michigan or Ohio. I know that Ohio State has been playing at a very high level for a long time, Michigan was good in the late 90’s but faded somewhat about 20 years ago.
None of that crap really matters for future success. The only thing that matters is what kind of support and facilities you have to be able to attract the recruits and great coaches to make them successful. I think Michigan can still get good recruits but they’re not getting the results on the field. What does the facilities look like? I know they have a great stadium but what about the player amenities, lounges, support systems?
Harbaugh came on strong with recruiting at first, how does he do now that the shine has rubbed off? Is he able to put together a good offensive line?
The other thing about a coach at a “Tier 1” program is that I’ve often thought that “whatever he will be, he will be by year three”. Maybe not 100%. But more often than not you’ll know exactly what you’ve got by the third year.
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Yo guys go on and on about things that are pointless. It doesn’t matter what this one did 20, 30, 50, or 75 years ago. The landscape has changed. The Big Ten is now 14, demographics have changed, competitors have emerged, competitors have faded.
Just like every other board and depends on what the point is .Killin' time between contests
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I find it interesting to consider the pros and cons of changing coaches, and what is expected from the FNG. The track record around the country of programs expecting better is not particularly good of late, and I think part of that is due to expectations. Of course, some teams find THE guy, and do well, but most it seems to me do no better, or worse, and they get on the hiring and firing never ending cycle.
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Yo guys go on and on about things that are pointless. It doesn’t matter what this one did 20, 30, 50, or 75 years ago. The landscape has changed. The Big Ten is now 14, demographics have changed, competitors have emerged, competitors have faded.
I don’t know much at all about either football in Michigan or Ohio. I know that Ohio State has been playing at a very high level for a long time, Michigan was good in the late 90’s but faded somewhat about 20 years ago.
None of that crap really matters for future success. The only thing that matters is what kind of support and facilities you have to be able to attract the recruits and great coaches to make them successful. I think Michigan can still get good recruits but they’re not getting the results on the field. What does the facilities look like? I know they have a great stadium but what about the player amenities, lounges, support systems?
Harbaugh came on strong with recruiting at first, how does he do now that the shine has rubbed off? Is he able to put together a good offensive line?
The other thing about a coach at a “Tier 1” program is that I’ve often thought that “whatever he will be, he will be by year three”. Maybe not 100%. But more often than not you’ll know exactly what you’ve got by the third year.
Michigan facilities are very good, could be better.
Michigan is still one of the biggest brands in college football- despite not having won a league title since 2004 and despite having their asses handed to them by OSU/MSU since 2008.
Michigan football brings in $120+ million in revenue annually consistently. They are basically always in the top 3 in terms of revenue from football year in year out. They have maybe the richest active alum/booster in the entire country in Stephen Ross- who is the owner of the Miami Dolphins and of the Related Companies- the largest property developer in the entire United States. Stephen Ross is probably worth close to $10 billion and he's donated close to $500 million to the University of Michigan. Any time that school has needed money from him he opens the damn checkbook no questions asked.
Harbaugh's had no problem putting together good offensive lines. He's had MAJOR problems putting together a functional, modern offense and finding a legitimate stud QB.
Michigan can recruit elite kids from all over the country. They always have been able to. Them not being able to actually beat Ohio State has cost them so many elite kids they basically had in the bag. There's too many to name. Keep losing to Ohio State- and they won't come. 5* CB Domani Jackson from California- Michigan was looking great there til the MSU loss- and I suspect after Ohio State blows Michigan off the field- he'll flip to Bama from USC instead of to Michigan- where he's been leaning.
Michigan is an easy program to recruit to. But it's like any helmet team- see Texas or USC- you need a legit coach to win. These programs do not run themselves.
I see a President/AD at Michigan that are not all in on football whatsoever no questions asked do whatever it takes to win like the one I see at OSU- and I see a piss poor track record of hiring coaches. RichRod and Hoke were disasters, and while Harbaugh stabilized the program and brought it back to respectability- he is completely incapable of taking it to the next level. That is going to require real offensive strategy, modern passing offense, and elite QB/WR play- things he has NO clue on. For christ take he took the best WR prospect the state of Michigan has produced in nearly 20 years since Charles Rogers and turned him into a 6th round pick- a guy that is flashing in the NFL already and the Cleveland Browns brass are so high on they are going to probably get rid of OBJ. Urbz said it himself- he drove through a snowstorm to try and sign DPJ- he thought DPJ was a top 10 NFL Draft pick talent wise. And Jim The CTE retard f#ck turned him into a 6th round pick.
This isn't 1997. You can't "MAN BALL-ME STRONG" your way to victories vs elite teams anymore. Even Saban realized this and said hey you know what- we've got to massively upgrade our QB/WR play and modernize our passing offense and bring it to the 21st century. And if the literal KING of "MAN-BALL, PLAY DEFENZZZZE" did that- yeah then you have NO shot if you're just some CTE retard weirdo who has never won anything like Jim Harbaugh.
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They seem to recruit in the 10-15 range according to 247 sports. That doesn't mean everything but it suggests they could recruit better, in theory. The consistent CFP teams recruit in the top five almost annually, if not entirely so. They currently are ranked 7th in the CFP, which obviously is quite good, with three very winnable games left and then OSU of course. My guess is JH is not fired and a lot of UM fans will be unhappy.
Expectations.
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They seem to recruit in the 10-15 range according to 247 sports. That doesn't mean everything but it suggests they could recruit better, in theory. The consistent CFP teams recruit in the top five almost annually, if not entirely so. They currently are ranked 7th in the CFP, which obviously is quite good, with three very winnable games left and then OSU of course. My guess is JH is not fired and a lot of UM fans will be unhappy.
Expectations.
They recruit in the top 10-15 range when they suck.
When they are actually good? They recruit in that top 5 range like clockwork.
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OK, so the core issue is lack of elite recruiting of late. The FNG needs to up that game.
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OK, so the core issue is lack of elite recruiting of late. The FNG needs to up that game.
No. The core issue is not winning. You are not going to consistently land elite recruiting classes (top 5-10) on a year to year basis - if you don't actually win meaningful games.
There have been so many 5* recruits that Michigan was oh so close to landing, only for them to get their dicks kicked in by Ohio State and see those recruits say nah, I'm going to go somewhere else where I have a real shot to win something.
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Well, at every program that isn't winning as much as they want that's the core issue, I suppose I should have said the core cause of not winning.
I don't think a program can "win" much today without elite recruiting, though that is sine qua non it's also not sufficient alone. Teams recruiting around 10-20 will end up 9-3ish or 10-2ish, with few exceptions. And you can't recruit consistently top five is you aren't winning at a high level, I don't think there is an exception to that. Texas might be close to it.
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Good responses.
What is FNG? Fired Next Guy?
Future Next Guy?
Sometimes in order to be great, others need to slip. It’s not a zero sum game.
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chicken and egg - winning and recruiting
gotta find a coach that can add some momentum and excitement to a program that can upgrade recruiting
Harbaugh was that guy when he was hired
PJ Fleck is that guy
everyone thought Scott Frost could do that
but, the wins hafta come soon to maintain momentum
PJ got more wins than the Gophers had in the past, showed progress. The story sells
Harbaugh and Frost haven't delivered the wins
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FNG is oft used in a military context and is profane and then "New Guy".
In context it often means "meet the new boss, same as the old boss".
Or not.
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Good responses.
What is FNG? Fired Next Guy?
Future Next Guy?
Sometimes in order to be great, others need to slip. It’s not a zero sum game.
yup, Clemson slips, opportunity for Wake
best thing for Harbaugh would be Ryan Day slipping up\\
Wsconsin slips in the West, opportunity for Minnesoota or Iowa
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Good responses.
What is FNG? Fired Next Guy?
Future Next Guy?
Sometimes in order to be great, others need to slip. It’s not a zero sum game.
Bottom line, this game is still all about the coach imo.
And Harbaugh ain't the right coach for the way the game is played today. Even Saban, literally the king of- we're going to play boring offense with a mediocre game-managing QB, run the football, and play defense- which won him how many league titles & championships- said nah- that doesn't work any more. Even Saban adjusted and handed the keys of the offenses over to his OC's/QB's/WR's and realized he needed to go vertical, spread it out, put points on the board, and throw the ball all over the field. Jim Harbaugh is literally incapable of doing this. He has NO CLUE where to begin.
To win today- you need an offense that pushes the ball down the field and you need high level QB play- like Ohio State has had with Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields, and now CJ Stroud. Like Clemson had with DeShaun and then Trevor Lawerence right after- and like Alabama has had with Tua, Mac, and now Bryce Young. Like LSU had with Joe Burrow for that magical season.
Need a QB who can throw it all over the lot. Which is why Georgia ain't winning shit this year imo. They don't have that style of high flying high scoring offense. You absolutely need it- or you're just not winning shit. The game has changed. It's a new era.
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Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields, CJ Stroud. DeShaun Trevor Lawerence Tua, Mac, and now Bryce Young. Joe Burrow
and all very mobile except perhaps one of the nine
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Which one? because I see at least two that are not very mobile.
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Mac
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Who are you, Stephen A Smith?
Urban was pulling Haskins out of the game in running situations. :D
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I agree a mobile QB with a strong arm has been a feature of most recent NC teams.
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Yeah, great observation. Except there is nothing in your opinion which supports your stupid argument that Michigan should just expect to lose to Ohio State forever and not try to win the B1G title more than once a decade.
I don't think anybody is arguing that Michigan should expect to lose to Ohio State EVERY year or for that matter even that their expectation should be for one B1G title a decade.
@Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) and I think that two titles per decade is a reasonable expectation.
As for myself I don't think I'd ever tie coaching decisions directly to performance against a rival. There are just too many moving parts. If I were the AD at Ohio State and my coach went 7-3 against Michigan in a decade but Michigan generally sucked and the Buckeyes won <2 league titles and no NC's, that isn't good enough. Conversely, if Michigan suddenly became what Bama has been the last decade or so and my coach went 4-6 against them I'd wish we were beating them more but I damn sure wouldn't fire a guy who went 4-6 against one of the greatest 10-year runs in CFB history.
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Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds, line: 2021 college football picks, Week 10 predictions from proven computer model - CBSSports.com (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/tennessee-vs-kentucky-odds-line-2021-college-football-picks-week-10-predictions-from-proven-computer-model/)
It's obvious the Wolverines have improved in Year 7 under Harbaugh. Cade McNamara is the Harbaugh's best QB, there's better team speed, Aiden Hutchinson looks like a young J.J. Watt. Following the Michigan State loss, the knee-jerk reaction in Michigan was Harbaugh, once again, can't win the big one. To this sportswriter's naked eyes, UM has the roster to still challenge for a College Football Playoff berth. I almost feel guilty putting Harbs on this list. For the first time in years, Michigan has an upwards trajectory. Even with another Ohio State loss, the arrow should remain pointing up. The problem in firing Harbaugh remains: If you do, who are you gonna get of substance? October rating: 3
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I've never taken the ferry to Pelee but a friend used to take his boat up there all the time to get Canadian Beer. I tagged along on that ride on the way to PIB a few times . . . Good Times (from what I've been told).
When I was a teen in the 70s, my grandfather kept a boat at Put-in-bay. Generally fished along the bass islands. I tried numerous times to get him to go to Pelee so I could say I was in Canada, He would never do it.
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It's by far the best way to get to Canada from Ohio.
Beats the Hell out of driving through Buffalo or Detroit.
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Michigan is 58-51-6 vs Ohio State all-time.
Two things:
First, if this is what you mean by "win more than they lose" then it isn't quite as unreasonable as I was thinking. 58-51-6 is technically a winning record but the difference is roughly one game in 15 years. We've been talking here about 10 year timeframes and frankly coaching decisions are made on even shorter timeframes. If you were thinking that the expectation should be 6-4 in 10 years or 3-2 in five years, that is a much higher bar. Ignoring the ties because those are not possible anymore, this works out to roughly 8-7 in favor of Michigan every 15 years.
Technically that meets the definition of your stated expectation but if these had been evenly distributed (they weren't, more on that later) it would never have "felt like" Michigan was more than marginally better than tOSU as a program because we are only talking about a very slim advantage. On a ten year basis this works out to just over 5 wins for Michigan and just under 5 wins for Ohio State.
Second, all of Michigan's advantage was accumulated by guys who wore leather helmets or no helmets at all. That isn't an exaggeration, it is actually an understatement. Michigan has a seven game advantage today at 58-51-6. They first achieved a seven game advantage with their 6-0 win on October 20, 1906 which moved their all-time record against Ohio State up to 7-0-1. In the more than 110 years since then the series is even at 51-51-5.
- Michigan's advantage grew to 13 games at 13-0-2 in 1918 before Ohio State achieved their first victory in the series. Since then Ohio State leads 51-45-4
- Michigan's advantage grew to 16 games at 19-3-2 in 1927. Since then Ohio State leads 48-39-4.
To put this another way, according to the Census bureau there were approximately 331.5 million people living in the US as of 2020. Thelma Sutcliffe of Nebraska was born October 1, 1906 and is still living today. She is the ONLY living American in whose lifetime the Wolverines have a winning record against the Buckeyes. Their win on October 20, 1906 when she was just 20 days old is one of 52 for Michigan in her lifetime compared to 51 for Ohio State.
In more relevant time-periods:
- Ohio State leads 8-0 since 2012 when current recruits were roughly 10 years old.
- Ohio State leads 14-1 since 2004, roughly when current recruits were born.
- Ohio State leads 16-2 since firing Cooper after the 2000 loss.
- Ohio State leads 18-10-1 since Bo retired.
- Ohio State leads 25-19-2 since man last walked on the moon.
- Ohio State leads 24-19-1 since the Edmund Fitzgerald sank.
- Ohio State leads 23-16-1 since Woody was fired.
- Ohio State leads 27-21-2 since Bo was hired.
- Ohio State leads 27-21-2 since man first walked on the moon.
- Ohio State leads 31-23-2 since JFK was shot in Dallas.
- Ohio State leads 39-27-2 since Woody was hired.
- Ohio State leads 39-32-3 since the end of WWII.
- Ohio State leads 41-33-3 since 1942, the season of tOSU's first NC.
- Ohio State leads 41-33-3 since the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI).
- Ohio State leads 41-35-4 since the first TV broadcast of a CFB game.
- Ohio State leads 46-39-4 since the stock market crash of 1929 that precipitated the Great Depression.
- Ohio State leads 48-45-4 in the last 100 years.
- Ohio State leads 51-46-4 in conference games.
- Ohio State leads 51-46-4 since the Armistice that ended WWI.
- Ohio State leads 51-47-4 since the Titanic sank.
- Ohio State leads 51-50-5 since the Model T was introduced.
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When I was a teen in the 70s, my grandfather kept a boat at Put-in-bay. Generally fished along the bass islands. I tried numerous times to get him to go to Pelee so I could say I was in Canada, He would never do it.
Really,my folks were in Marblehead on the Bay side right across from Johnson's Island.The '70s were great as there wasn't a lot of development up there and good jobs were a dime/dozen so the penninsula was dotted with cottages/trailes/cabins.We were young and many of the week enders had kegs out on the patios - so we'd make the rounds quite frequently - great times and there was no limit on Perch as the walleye had not rebounded yet
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX-GdjG4D3g
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX-GdjG4D3g
I always thought the moon landing was real...until I saw how they could fabricate a video of Michigan winning a big game :57:
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The moon landing was fake, but they wanted realism so they made everyone film it on location.
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I always thought the moon landing was real...until I saw how they could fabricate a video of Michigan winning a big game :57:
Sheesh,you act like they voted to keep MSU out of the Conference or something
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Or not.
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I agree he needs to go, but it's a dead program so it doesn't really matter who the coach is. They can't beat OSU, so they can't win their division, so they can't win their conference, so they can't go to the playoffs, so they can't win the NC.
Maybe someone could come in and beat MSU and PSU here and there, but I lost all optimism for UM years ago. Now I just watch until the wheels fall off. Some seasons it happens later than others, but you always know they will fall off just after Thanksgiving at the very latest.
This aged like a fine wine.
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We are all wrong and often.