CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 18, 2021, 12:18:05 PM
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B1G-E:
- 4-0/7-0 Michigan State, controls their own destiny
- 3-0/6-0 Michigan, controls their own destiny
- 3-0/5-1 Ohio State, controls their own destiny
- 2-1/5-1 Penn State, controls their own destiny
Rutgers 0-4/3-4 is now mathematically eliminated but the reasoning is a bit convoluted. Here goes:
- Rutgers would finish 5-4/8-4 if they won out.
- Either Michigan State or the winner of tOSU/M will have at least five wins.
- MSU, tOSU, and Michigan all beat RU H2H.
Maryland (1-2) and Indiana (0-3) are still theoretically in the race mathematically but they are practically eliminated.
Games among the top-4:
- PSU at tOSU, 10/30
- M at MSU, 10/30
- M at PSU, 11/13
- MSU at tOSU, 11/20
- tOSU at M, 11/27
- PSU at MSU, 11/27
It looks like this will come down to the final weekend with either tOSU@M or PSU@MSU or both being decisive.
B1G-W:
Teams that control their own destiny:
- 2-1/4-2 Minnesota (because their loss was to a B1G-E team)
- 1-2/3-3 Northwestern (because their losses were to B1G-E teams)
- 1-2/3-3 Wisconsin (because their losses were to B1G-E teams)
Teams that are very much in the race but need help:
- 3-1/6-1 Iowa, needs a Purdue loss
- 2-1/4-2 Purdue, needs a Minnesota loss
Illinois (1-3/2-5) has no practical chance. Nebraska (1-4/3-5) has no practical chance and may be mathematically eliminated because I'm not sure that it is mathematically possible for 5-4 to win the division.
This weekend Wisconsin is at Purdue while NU, IL, and MN have B1G-E opponents. Iowa and Nebraska are off.
Wisconsin at Purdue:
With a win the Badgers maintain control of their own destiny but with a loss they would be all but eliminated. Purdue would still be in the race with a loss but they'd need a significant amount of help.
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I truly believe UW gets eliminated this weekend.
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I truly believe UW gets eliminated this weekend.
There's NO WAY that Purdue beats Wisconsin.
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There's NO WAY that Purdue beats Wisconsin.
i wouldn't say "no way"
but i think you said that before Iowa too so maybe it will work
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B1G-E:
- 4-0/7-0 Michigan State, controls their own destiny
- 3-0/6-0 Michigan, controls their own destiny
- 3-0/5-1 Ohio State, controls their own destiny
- 2-1/5-1 Penn State, controls their own destiny
The Spartans are off this weekend while the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions are playing teams tentatively ranked #10, #12, and #13 in our Power Rankings so we should head into the big Halloween Weekend match-ups at:
- 4-0/7-0 MSU
- 4-0/7-0 M
- 4-0/6-1 tOSU
- 3-1/6-1 PSU
Assuming we do, PSU will have the most at stake because they have the least margin for error. If they win out the loss to Iowa doesn't impact their B1GCG chances but if they lose again they'll need help and if they lose to MSU, M, or tOSU they'll need a LOT of help.
Assuming the favorites all win this weekend (tOSU over IU, PSU over IL, M over NU) and then PSU loses in Columbus on 10/30 the Nittany Lions would have two possible routes to the B1GCG but both are unlikely:
Possible route #1, tOSU loses three games:
Penn State would have to win out.
The next issue here is that at 4-2/7-2 the Nittany Lions would be two games behind the Buckeyes AND they'd lose a two-way tie with tOSU due to the H2H result. Ohio State losing three games gets around that problem but it requires that a tOSU team good enough to beat PSU is somehow also bad enough to lose three out of four to the two Michigan schools, Nebraska, and Purdue.
Even if all of that happened, the Nittany Lions would still need the M/MSU winner to lose a game. The problem is that it probably can't be to tOSU since the Nittany Lions already need the Buckeyes to go 1-3 so it would have to be to either Maryland or an Indiana school (IU for M, PU for MSU).
Possible route #2, PSU wins a three or four-way tie at 7-2 with the Buckeyes and one or both of the Michigan Schools:
Penn State would have to win out.
Next they would need tOSU to lose to both Michigan schools (a loss to UNL or PU instead doesn't work because that would be non-divisional).
Next they would need the M/MSU winner to lose another game (IU for M or PU for MSU).
This would create a two, three, or four-way tie at 7-2 between PSU some or all of the M/MSU winner, the M/MSU loser, and tOSU. Here is how each of those break down:
- Three way tie with tOSU and M: PSU wins based on divisional record. The H2H2H would be 1-1 so we drop to divisional record where PSU wins because their other loss was to Iowa while tOSU's and Michigan's were to MSU and IU respectively.
- Three way tie with tOSU and MSU: PSU wins based on H2H over MSU. First, tOSU is eliminated by divisional record then it reverts to H2H between PSU and MSU and the Nittany Lions win.
- Four way tie with tOSU, M, and MSU: PSU wins based on beating both Michigan schools H2H. First tOSU and the M/MSU loser would be eliminated based on their 1-2 H2H2H. Then PSU and the M/MSU winner would revert to H2H where PSU wins.
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While OSU-PSU and UM-MSU get all the attention, I just realized Iowa at Wisconsin is also next weekend?
Who the hell made this schedule?
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While OSU-PSU and UM-MSU get all the attention, I just realized Iowa at Wisconsin is also next weekend?
Who the hell made this schedule?
Yeah, it is insane. Barring a MAJOR upset next weekend a top-10 matchup between #6 M and #9 MSU is not going to be the biggest game in the league because #5 tOSU vs #7 PSU will be bigger and a hugely important B1G-W showdown between Iowa and Wisconsin will be completely overshadowed.
It is bad for viewing because this weekend and 11/6 look kinda blah with all the big games packed into Halloween weekend.
This weekend:
- #5 tOSU visits sub.500 IU
- #6 M hosts .500 NU
- #7 PSU hosts sub.500 IL
- #9 MSU is off
- #11 Iowa is off
- #25 PU hosts UW
Weekend of 11/6:
- #5 tOSU visits sub.500 UNL
- #6 M hosts sub.500 IU
- #7 PSU visits mediocre UMD
- #9 MSU visits #25 PU
- #11 IA visits .500 NU
It is funny, Purdue looks to be the GOTW both this weekend and 11/6 but those two games wouldn't make the top-4 next weekend when we have:
- #7 PSU at #5 tOSU
- #9 MSU at #6 M
- #11 IA at UW
- MN at NU (I put this fourth because as of right now both teams control their own destiny in the B1G-W although that could change)
- #25 PU at UNL
- IU at UMD
- RU at IL (the battle for the B1G Cellar)
Really, all the games next weekend look interesting because even the ones that aren't between highly ranked teams are still between reasonably equivalent teams. Per our power rankings the top-6 are playing each other but so are the bottom two and the other three games are pretty evenly matched as well. Halloween weekend games per our tentative power rankings:
- #3 PSU at #1 tOSU
- #4 MSU at #2 M
- #5 IA at #6 UW
- #7 MN at #12 NU
- #10 IU at #11 UMD
- #7 PU at #8 UNL
- #14 RU at #13 IL
Four games between teams adjacent in the rankings (IA/UW, IU/UMD,PU/UNL,RU/IL). Two more within two spots (PSU/tOSU, MSU/M) and even the "bad" game on this metric is between teams five spots apart but both still in the B1G-W race.