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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Hawkinole on September 26, 2021, 06:42:53 PM

Title: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: Hawkinole on September 26, 2021, 06:42:53 PM
The early line has Iowa favored in this one by 4. It should be a good test for Iowa's defense.
It will probably be too much of a test for Iowa's offense.
I expected Iowa's offense to come into bloom against Kent State and Colorado St., and I expected it to gain momentum coming into the Maryland game.
Iowa takes care of the ball pretty well, but the offensive line is not able to sustain run blocking. It does a little better at pass blocking. It has to do much better at pass blocking because QB Spencer Petras wears rubber boots and the cement he is in is setting, i.e., he can't move his feet.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Post Game
Post by: LittlePig on September 26, 2021, 07:57:08 PM
Defenses, including Kent State and Colorado State, think they have a blueprint for stopping Iowa.  Put 6, 7, or even 8 guys in a box and just dare Iowa to throw the ball.

Iowa experimented with some different things against CSU to counteract this plan

1.  Throwing to TE like Iowa always does
2.  Running  WR reverses, jet sweeps and mis-direction with mixed success
3.  Playing speedy freshman WR to see if they are better at getting open.  This also has had mixed results,  but freshman keegan-Johnson did catch a couple of deep throws, including a 46 yard TD catch against CSU.

I have a hunch Iowa has a couple more tricks coming against MD to try to open up the offense.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Post Game
Post by: JerseyTerrapin on September 26, 2021, 08:32:08 PM
Iowa has kicked our arse every year except for the first one, so that's what I expect this time...
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Post Game
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 26, 2021, 08:35:14 PM
Post game? 
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Post Game
Post by: Abba on September 26, 2021, 10:42:36 PM
I can't believe Iowa lost.  Chalk another one up for the Big Ten East.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Post Game
Post by: Mdot21 on September 26, 2021, 10:48:30 PM
going to be a really good one. I think Maryland pulls off the upset. Tua Jr looks pretty good.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Pre-Game
Post by: LittlePig on September 27, 2021, 09:26:16 PM
It is a interesting coincidence that Kent State has played Iowa and MD back to back in the last 2 weeks but I am not sure if we would learn much from  comparing the 2 games.

Iowa won 30-7
MD won 37-16
 
MD threw for over 400 yards.  Iowa threw for barely 200 yards while Tyler Goodson ran for a career high  164 yards.

MD and Iowa is probably going to be a close game, which we knew already.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Pre-Game
Post by: LittlePig on September 27, 2021, 09:36:08 PM
Iowa is favored by 4 in this game with an over/under of 46.  This suggests a final score of

Iowa 24,  MD 20

But this seems a little high for both iowa's offense and defense.  I am thinking it would be more like

Iowa 14,  MD 13
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Pre-Game
Post by: FearlessF on September 27, 2021, 09:47:24 PM
take the under
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Pre-Game
Post by: MrNubbz on September 28, 2021, 07:33:46 AM
It is a interesting coincidence that Kent State has played Iowa and MD back to back in the last 2 weeks but I am not sure if we would learn much from  comparing the 2 games.

Iowa won 30-7
MD won 37-16
Correct it seems like a good barometer between to opponents that appear about equal but it's a strange shaped ball.Just takes a few quirks here and there to turn it into the last half of the 4 th Qtr of ND/UW.Hell Maryland might pull it out and MTwerp won't be around to grouse
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: LittlePig on September 28, 2021, 08:57:38 AM
Correct it seems like a good barometer between to opponents that appear about equal but it's a strange shaped ball.Just takes a few quirks here and there to turn it into the last half of the 4 th Qtr of ND/UW.Hell Maryland might pull it out and MTwerp won't be around to grouse
Hey, whatever happened to McTwerps?

(Yes, I know its actually MCWTerps,  but I originally thought it was McTwerps so I still pronounce that way in my mind even though I know better now)
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on September 28, 2021, 09:26:12 AM
He got run for getting a bit too salty,forgot the particulars
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 29, 2021, 12:00:26 PM
sp+ model predicts Maryland wins 25-21.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 29, 2021, 12:35:52 PM
If Iowa can't beat Maryland this weekend, then this could get really silly. 
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: BuckeyeAvenger on September 29, 2021, 01:04:12 PM
This looks like a low scoring game, when you just look at the Iowa side.  Iowa has a pretty good defense, so that should keep the Maryland score low. Iowa also struggles on offense, so that should keep the Hawkeye scoring output, under control. I don’t know what to expect from the Terps here, I’m not sure it matters that much, as Iowa’s proclivities/style/tendencies might greatly control the type of game that happens.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 29, 2021, 02:34:50 PM
my gut was telling me Maryland before. sp+ predicts Maryland. I'm rolling with Maryland. 
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: LittlePig on September 29, 2021, 06:52:25 PM
This being a Friday night game,  it seems to add another level of unpredictability to this game.   

The PAC-12 seems to have a lot of good teams get upset when they have to travel on a Friday night.  But the twist was the PAC was scheduling Saturday road games followed by a Friday road game.  The Big Ten does a better of job of avoiding that.

Iowa may not be in too bad of shape, they played their last game at home and is mostly healthy.  Plus Iowa is used to playing Friday games because of Black Friday games against Nebraska.  They should be ok.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: LittlePig on September 29, 2021, 09:07:43 PM
sp+ model predicts Maryland wins 25-21.
Iowa's defense has not given up 25 or more points in a game since 2018.  So if MD scores 25 points against Iowa, that will be a big deal.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2021, 09:58:12 PM
This being a Friday night game,  it seems to add another level of unpredictability to this game. 

The PAC-12 seems to have a lot of good teams get upset when they have to travel on a Friday night.  But the twist was the PAC was scheduling Saturday road games followed by a Friday road game.  The Big Ten does a better of job of avoiding that.

Iowa may not be in too bad of shape, they played their last game at home and is mostly healthy.  Plus Iowa is used to playing Friday games because of Black Friday games against Nebraska.  They should be ok.
Ferentz has stated he doesn't like Friday games
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 29, 2021, 11:38:24 PM
This being a Friday night game,  it seems to add another level of unpredictability to this game. 

The PAC-12 seems to have a lot of good teams get upset when they have to travel on a Friday night.  But the twist was the PAC was scheduling Saturday road games followed by a Friday road game.  The Big Ten does a better of job of avoiding that.

Iowa may not be in too bad of shape, they played their last game at home and is mostly healthy.  Plus Iowa is used to playing Friday games because of Black Friday games against Nebraska.  They should be ok.
I think it is a definite advantage for the home team because they don't have the travel day.  

From what I saw when I was there, UMD doesn't have much of a crowd/noise HFA like Iowa does but I think the short rest issue helps Maryland.  The thing is that Maryland has had great starts followed up by terrible finishes the last few years so does that continue or do they keep rolling this year?  
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on September 30, 2021, 06:33:10 PM
I'm also kind of against Friday night games - high school football is only sacred if you don't try to compete with it. OTOH I'm not going to any high school games Friday, my wife will probably fall asleep by 8, so it will be nice to have something to watch.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on September 30, 2021, 06:52:35 PM
I'm not going to any high school games anytime soon, so it will be nice to have something to watch.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 01, 2021, 07:12:40 PM
I recall a few Thursday night games where you had game day traffic combined with regular rush hour traffic. 

Good times. 
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 01, 2021, 09:10:37 PM
Maryland in Iowa hell. Demus with a rough looking injury. Going by Twitter since I'm not at home
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Hawkinole on October 01, 2021, 09:56:22 PM
Maryland in Iowa hell. Demus with a rough looking injury. Going by Twitter since I'm not at home
He hyperextended the knee about 30 degrees. I couldn't watch it on rerun not even to celebrate th Iowa fumble recovery. It was awful to watch.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: LittlePig on October 01, 2021, 09:57:48 PM
Well, so far Iowa has played 2  Big Ten games and first one they led 31-7 at halftime and the 2nd game they led 34-7 at halftime.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Hawkinole on October 01, 2021, 10:03:11 PM
Well, so far Iowa has played 2  Big Ten games and first one they led 31-7 at halftime and the 2nd game they led 34-7 at halftime.
Against the big bad Big Ten East no less.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: iahawk15 on October 01, 2021, 10:51:32 PM
Against the big bad Big Ten East no less.
Well, against the bad of the East anyway.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (1-0, 4-0) at #20 Maryland (2-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2021, 11:28:31 PM
Well, against the bad of the East anyway.
We'll find out next week.  Indiana and Maryland look like the "bad of the East" right now largely because they got annihilated by Iowa.  At this point the question is whether those results were more because Indiana and Maryland are that bad or because Iowa is that good.  
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2021, 07:37:59 AM
I watched until a little after the half. Iowa is a really good football team. Definitely head and shoulders above the rest of the West. I don't think any of the teams are even close.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2021, 07:41:05 AM
Relying on TO margin is a risky proposition.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: iahawk15 on October 02, 2021, 08:32:51 AM
Relying on TO margin is a risky proposition.
You could arguably state they relied on TO margin for the ISU win, but otherwise they're relying on defense. The TO margin is certainly affecting the final scores, but defense is winning the games.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: Temp430 on October 02, 2021, 09:07:39 AM
Felt bad for the crowd who seemed to be into the game before it started.  Then Ugly happened.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: LittlePig on October 02, 2021, 09:30:04 AM
You could arguably state they relied on TO margin for the ISU win, but otherwise they're relying on defense. The TO margin is certainly affecting the final scores, but defense is winning the games.
Yup,  if Iowa gets 6 turnovers a game, they win 51-14.  If they get 3 turnovers, 31-14.  if they get 1 turnover they win 24-14.  If they get no turnovers, 17-14.

What if the other team gets more turnovers?  Idk,  its been a long time since that happened. Stay tuned.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2021, 09:44:50 AM
I figure a TO on average is worth about 3.5 points, so you're right that it's more of a factor in close games.  But a team winning close ones on TO margin might not hold up later in the year as well.  I need to watch an Iowa game, I'm not saying this is the case for them at all.

And the oft cited "law of averages" is completely faulty.
Title: Re: #5 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) at #20 Maryland (2-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: LittlePig on October 02, 2021, 10:16:39 AM
I figure a TO on average is worth about 3.5 points, so you're right that it's more of a factor in close games.  But a team winning close ones on TO margin might not hold up later in the year as well.  I need to watch an Iowa game, I'm not saying this is the case for them at all.

And the oft cited "law of averages" is completely faulty.
It's not an accident that Iowa usually wins the turnover battle.  Iowa's defense is set up to limit scoring, not to limit yards.  They play back, don't blitz and keep everything in front of them.  So it has a way of giving other teams a false  confidence.  They pick up 1 or 2 first downs but Iowa does not give up the big score.  Then sooner or later, Boom! the other team makes a mistake.  They fumble or throw a pick.    Rarely does Iowa fall behind by 2 scores, and eventually a conservative Iowa offense manages to sneak out a score or 2.  Then the other team gets more frustrated. 

It is also worth noting that Iowa does develop a lot defensive talent that ends up playing in the NFL.  Iowa has had 4 BigTen DB player of the year since 2012.  So it does have talent in defense.

With all that said,  we know sooner or later there is going to be a game where Iowa falls behind 14-0 and will be interesting how Iowa responds.