CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2021, 09:01:23 PM
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Link to last week's results (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-1-23773/).
Raw vote:
(https://i.imgur.com/6r2kxrj.png)
Drop the high and low for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/GySld7i.png)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/rtqRwEx.png)
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Space reserved for results.
- #1 Ohio State's offense.
- . . .
- #15 Ohio State's defense. Seriously, the DC should have been fired at the post-game press conference.
Will trade Brian Ferentz + $1 million, for Kevin Wilson.
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- Penn State
- Michigan
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Maryland
- Rutgers
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Indiana
- Minnesota
- Northwestern
- Illinois
- Nebraska
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(https://i.imgur.com/FUzix9b.png)
No Big Ten team has had a more challenging schedule than Iowa, so far. No Big Ten team has as solid of a defense, either. Iowa's offense must be as bad or worse than Illinois', and Northwestern's. To my eye, Michigan which is currently unranked, looked really good against Washington, not so bad against W. Michigan, so I am moving them up, and that's not because Penn State or Wisconsin did poorly, or that Ohio State is so bad. Ohio State should have played better, on defense, but it is the same dead drum beat that has kept tOSU from winning the FBS championship the past few years, i.e. questionable defensive integrity.
The schedule eases up for the Hawkeyes the next two weeks with home games against Kent St., and Colorado St., before a road game at Maryland will heat things up a bit. Then Penn St. comes to Iowa City for a game at a time to be determined.
Big Ten teams #s 1 - 10, and possibly 11, appear to be competitive.
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1. OSU - I learned my lesson years ago. You don't demote OSU just because they have an early OOC loss (or a fluky mid-season loss to an average Big Ten West team).
2. Iowa - has figured out how to win games without a great offense. Instead winning through great defense, special teams and turnovers. Reminds of the Ravens Super Bowl winning teams.
3. PSU - looking like a good team so far.
4. Wisc - this may be too high but I will give them another week or 2 to figure it out.
5. Indy - after seeing Iowa dominate ISU this week similar to how Iowa dominated Indy the week before, and seeing how Indy bounced back against Idaho, Indiana does not look so bad now.
6. Mich - dominated what I thought was a good PAC Washington team
7. Rut - followed up blowout win over Temple with solid win over ACC SCuse
8. MD - MD has a bad habit of running up the score on FCS teams.
9. MSU - this may be the hardest team to rate. Guess I will put them somewhere in the middle.
10. Pur. - all we really know is that UConn has dropped to an unbelievably bad level. We learned almost nothing about how good Purdue is by playing UConn.
11. Minn - has some issues to work out
12. Neb - dropping Neb all the way to #14 after losing to ILL may have been an over reaction
13. NW - just not looking good at all right now
14. ILL - 2 straight losses,including being blown out by Va. NEB victory is starting to look like a fluke.
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I agree with LP, OSU would be on top for me.
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1. Ohio State
2. Iowa
3. Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Michigan State
7. Rutgers
8. Maryland
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
12. Northwestern
13. Nebraska
14. Illinois
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1. Iowa
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Wisconsin
6. Indiana
7. Rutgers
8. Michigan State
9. Maryland
10. Minnesota
11. Northwestern
12. Purdue
13. Illinois
14. Nebraska
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1 Iowa
2 PSU
3 Wisconsin
4 Purdue
5 OSU
6 Michigan
7 Rutgers
8 Minnesota
9 Maryland
10 Indiana
11 MSU
12 Northwestern
13 Nebraska
14 Illinois
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01- Penn State
02- Iowa
03- Ohio State
04- Michigan
05- Wisconsin
06- Minnesota
07- Purdue
08- Indiana
09- Maryland
10- Rutgers
11- Michigan State
12- Northwestern
13- Illinois
14- Nebraska
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1) Iowa - another dominant win.
2) Penn State - here for now, will find out more this week.
3) Ohio State - lots of potential, but a work in progress right now. Many get right games coming.
4) Wisconsin - just need Mertz to be consistent.
5) Michigan - looking good against moderate competition
6) Indiana - not ready to drop them yet
7) Rutgers - solid win. How good are they?
8) Maryland - is this a new Maryland or will old Maryland show up and lose to Illinois on Friday
9) Michigan State - looking good against bad competition
10) Purdue - nice to be 2-0.
11) Minnesota - Struggling with Miami makes me doubt them.
12) Northwestern - won't get Iowa this time. jNU.
13) Nebraska - has at least improved since week 0
14) Illinois - gets worse each week. Will be Illinoi in a few weeks. Chance to get back on track against usually schizo Maryland team.
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1. Iowa
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Wisconsin
6. Maryland
7. Purdue
8. Indiana
9. Michigan State
10. Rutgers
11. Minnesota
12. Northwestern
13. Nebraska
14. Illinois
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1) Penn State (2)
2) Ohio State (1)
3) Wisconsin (3)
4) Iowa (5) - The turnovers will dry up at some point.
5) Michigan (4)
6) Maryland (7)
7) Indiana (8)
8) Minnesota (6)
9) Rutgers (9)
10) Purdue (10)
11) Michigan State (11)
12) Nebraska (12)
13) Northwestern (13)
14) Illinois (14)
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Iowa
5. Michigan
6. Michigan State
7. Indiana
8. Minnesota
9. Rutgers
10. Maryland
11. Purdue
12. Northwestern
13. Nebraska
14. Illinois
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1) Iowa
2) Ohio State
3) Penn State
4) Wisconsin
5) Indiana
6) Michigan
7) Michigan State (seems like they're back, ahead of schedule)
8) Minnesota
9) Rutgers (I will leave them here, but that game vs. Syracuse was not exactly a showcase of P5 football ability).
10) Maryland (Really should not be playing Howard, but we want to get into a bowl again someday)
11) Purdue
12) Northwestern
13) Nebraska (Buffalo is a good program)
14) Illinois
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- Ohio State - 1,1 Clearly not looking like a CFP team but I'm not yet convinced that any team in this league is better and the Buckeyes have at least two "get right" games to get things figured out.
- Penn State - 2,3 Did what they were expected to do against MAC opponent.
- Wisconsin - 3,2 Did what they were expected to do against MAC opponent.
- Iowa - 4,4 Either I have Iowa too low or IU and ISU were overrated. For now I'm guessing that IU and ISU were overrated but we'll see.
- Michigan - 5,5 Nice convincing win over a P5 opponent.
- Maryland - 7,12 Did what they were expected to do against FCS opponent.
- Rutgers - 8,13 Looked like a quality B1G team on the road at Syracuse.
- Minnesota - 6,7 Oddly the Gophers looked better in their loss to tOSU than they did in their win over Miami, OH.
- Michigan State - 9,11 Did what they were expected to do against FCS opponent.
- Indiana - 10,6 Did what they were expected to do against FCS opponent.
- Purdue - 11,10 Throttled UCONN!
- Northwestern - 12,8 Did what they were expected to do against FCS opponent.
- Illinois - 13,14 Not sure if UTSA and UVA are a LOT better than I give them credit for or that UNL win was a fluke.
- Nebraska - 14,9 Did what they were expected to do against MAC opponent.
Most of the conference holds because they did what they were expected to do so not much changes.
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Iowa
Penn State
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana
Rutgers
Northwestern
Nebraska
Illinois
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Preview of results based on votes so far:
- Iowa VERY close to
- Penn State
- tOSU, all by themselves
- Wisconsin, all by themselves
- Michigan with a HUGE cushion over
- Indiana close to
- Maryland close to
- Rutgers close to
- Michigan State
- Minnesota close to
- Purdue
- Northwestern, all by themselves
- Nebraska
- Illinois
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Interesting early results.
My guess is Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State are very close in competitiveness. Ohio State is an entirely different type of team from the other four.
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Interesting early results.
My guess is Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State are very close in competitiveness. Ohio State is an entirely different type of team from the other four.
I think I agree but I'm not sure so I'm curious how exactly you mean this. In your rankings you had:
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
If you mean that you think the four you listed are clearly better then I disagree but that isn't what you said, you said "different type team".
I think I agree but here is what I mean by it:
Games between Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State should all be competitive, those are:
- M @ UW on 10/2
- PSU @ Iowa on 10/9
- Iowa @ UW on 10/30
- M @ PSU on 11/13
Conversely the games between those four and Ohio State, to wit:
- PSU @ tOSU on 10/30
- tOSU @ M on 11/27
- potential CCG vs IA or UW
These are completely different. Ohio State is good enough and has enough talent that if they get their issues straightened out and/or just have a really good game, the Buckeyes will win against any of the four in a complete blowout. OTOH, Ohio State has enough issues right now that they could also lose to any of those four in a complete blowout.
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I think I agree but I'm not sure so I'm curious how exactly you mean this. In your rankings you had:
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
These are completely different. Ohio State is good enough and has enough talent that if they get their issues straightened out and/or just have a really good game, the Buckeyes will win against any of the four in a complete blowout. OTOH, Ohio State has enough issues right now that they could also lose to any of those four in a complete blowout.
My top 4 have are distinguished from Ohio St most importantly because they have defenses that look exceptional.
Ohio State is a difficult comparison to the other 4 because its strength is offense and weakness is defense. Adding to its misery, Ohio State lost a home game to a lower ranked team. This is to illustrate how bad Ohio State's defense has been:
Ohio St gave up 31 points and 408 combined yards rushing and passing, to Minnesota.
Miami (Ohio) gave up 31 points and 287 combined yards rushing and passing, to Minnesota.
Ohio St gave up 35 points and 505 combined yards rushing and passing to Oregon.
Fresno St gave up 31 points and 358 combined yards rushing and passing to Oregon.
Going back to January 2021, Ohio St. gave up 52 points to Alabama.
It is fair to level criticism against Iowa's offense; it is paltry; the O-Line hasn't looked good, and the QB is immobile. But, Iowa this season played two ranked teams with legit defenses, and defeated both; the last two games Ohio St played against ranked teams, it lost. Iowa has won 9-consecutive games now, all against Power-5 schools. Occasionally an elite football program falters. Ohio St has had a remarkably long run. I think they will do well this year, but I see too many sharks swimming in Ohio State waters. There is not a single gimme in the Eastern Division.
It is early, and the quality of opponents is unequal. These five teams' "Points Against" are:
1. Iowa - 23 points
2. Mich. - 24 points
3. Penn St. - 23 points
4. Wisc. - 23 points
5. Ohio St. - 66 points
Michigan has scored more points than Ohio St. 78 - 73. Michigan appears to have turned a corner. Head-to-head there is not much difference between Penn St. and Wisc. I think there is a difference between my #4 and #5, which is not to say Ohio St won't defeat someone in the top 4, or that they will have a bad season. What I have seen says it will not be as good a season as Ohio State has been accustomed to having. That said, I am quite often wrong about football (but see the Washington v. Michigan thread).
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OTOH, Ohio State has enough issues right now that they could also lose to any of those four in a complete blowout.
Ohio St. would not lose to Iowa in a complete blowout. Iowa doesn't have enough offense. We shall see if Iowa's offense or defense scores more against Kent State this weekend. It's frustrating.
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- Iowa - Playing great defense and not committing to many mistakes on offense.
- Ohio State - I said last week I was worried about the defense. While Coombs is a great recruiter and DB coach, he is out of his league as a Def Coordinator
- Penn State - Still unsure about their offense as Ball St didn't reveal much.
- Wisconsin - Only loss to Penn St keeps them this low
- Michigan State - I'm impressed with their run game so far this season.
- Michigan - Was Washington really a good win? Washington lost to Montana week 1, so we really don't know much.
- Rutgers - Good win over Syracuse.
- Maryland - The win over WVU still looking good.
- Purdue - Showed some heart with the comeback win over Or. St. Did what they should have against UConn.
- Minnesota - Stayed with tOSU but had trouble with Miami Oh.
- Indiana - Got their doors blown off by Iowa, did what they had to against Idaho.
- Northwestern - Still sputtering against lesser teams.
- Nebraska - Not sure the Fordham win should move them ahead of Ill, but
- Illinois - Lost to UTSA and then got blown out by Virginia.
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Results posted, votes through @NorthernOhioBuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=40) , 15 voters.
Some notes:
#1 Iowa (1.85), #2 PSU (2.23), and #3 tOSU (2.69) are all within less than 0.5 of the next team such that #3 tOSU is closer to #1 Iowa than they are to #4 Wisconsin.
#4 Wisconsin and #5 Michigan are pretty close also but the bigger issue is that #5 Michigan is actually closer to #1 Iowa than they are to #6 Rutgers. Ie, the gap between #5 and #6 is ENORMOUS.
#6 RU (7.92), #7/8 UMD/IU (both 8.0), and #9 MSU (8.31) are all basically tied for 6-9.
#10 MN (9.23) and #11 PU (9.38) are basically tied for 10/11.
#12 Northwestern is all by themselves.
#13 Nebraska is fairly close to #14 IL whom they lost to.
What I call the COTY/Hot Seat Chart is odd. This chart compares preseason to current ranking. I call it the COTY/Hot Seat chart because COTY is usually given to the coach of the biggest unexpectedly improving team and the coach of the biggest unexpectedly declining team is generally on the hot seat.
This chart is unusual because right now only IL (-0.23) and UW (-1.0) are within +/-1 of where they started. Everybody else is either significantly up or significantly down.
Vote Distribution:
These are the only things that at least half of us agree on:
- 11 of 15 agree that NU is #12
- 10 of 15 agree that IL is #14
- 9 of 15 agree that RU is #7
- 9 of 15 agree that UNL is #13
- 8 of 15 agree that Iowa is #1
Other than that it is pretty much a jumbled mess.
Ohio State's distribution is odd. They have:
- 4 votes for #1
- 4 votes for #2
- 3 votes for #3
- 0 votes for #4
- 4 votes for #5
It is relatively unusual to have multiple non-contiguous votes like that. One or maybe two outlier votes are common but not a statistically significant number like this, more than 1/4 of voters have them at #5 while the other ~3/4 have them #1, #2, or #3.
For a normal comparison, here are Wisconsin's votes:
Contiguous games (games between teams adjacent in the rankings):
- 9/25 #6 RU @ #5 M
- 10/2 #5 M @ #4 UW
- 10/2 #10 MN @ #11 PU
- 10/2 #12 NU @ #13 UNL
- 10/9 #2 PSU @ #1 IA
- 10/16 #9 MSU @ #7/8 IU
- 10/30 #2 PSU @ #3 tOSU
- 10/30 #7/8 IU @ #7/8 UMD
- 11/13 #6 RU @ #7/8 IU
- 11/13 #7/8 UMD @ #9 MSU
- 11/20 #11 PU vs #12 NU at Wrigley
- 11/27 #7/8 UMD @ #6 RU
- #13 UNL already lost at #14 IL
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What each team has in week 3 / chances to move up or down:
- Iowa: Can't really prove much against Kent.
- Penn State: Huge game with Auburn. If they win you almost have to move them up, no?
- Ohio State: Can't really prove much against Tulsa.
- Wisconsin: Off this week
- Michigan: Can't really prove much against N. IL.
- Rutgers: Can't really prove much against Delaware.
- Maryland: Can get a league win!
- Indiana: Hosting Cincy is interesting for the Hoosiers. They could move up or down a lot.
- Michigan State: This trip to Miami should give us a much better idea of what the Spartans are capable of.
- Minnesota: The trip to Boulder is interesting, could move up or down a lot.
- Purdue: They could move up with a win over ND.
- Northwestern: They could get a P5 win (Dook)
- Nebraska: Yeah, not thinking this will be pretty.
- Illinois: As putrid as the Illini looked against UTSA and UVA, if they win this weekend they'll be 2-0 in the B1G.
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What each team has in week 3 / chances to move up or down:
- Iowa: Can't really prove much against Kent.
- Penn State: Huge game with Auburn. If they win you almost have to move them up, no?
I already have PSU at #1, but if a poster was ranking based on resume, Iowa should still be ahead PSU even with an Auburn win.
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Last week in parenthesis
- IOWA (3) - 2-0 with the toughest schedule
- OHIO STATE (1) - even with a loss, takes a resume like Iowa's to jump them
- PENN STATE (2) - big chance to move back up this week
- WISCONSIN (4) - did what was needed
- MICHIGAN (5) - unclear if they can't pass, or just haven't needed to because the run game is so good
- MARYLAND (6) - did what they needed to
- INDIANA (8) - see above
- MICHIGAN STATE (9) - see above and above
- PURDUE (10) - see above and above and above
- MINNESOTA (7) - should not have been nearly that close against a middling MAC team
- RUTGERS (11) - should not have been that close against a bottom feeding ACC team
- NORTHWESTERN (12) - that's the Hunter Johnson we all know and love
- NEBRASKA (14) - better win than they will get credit for
- ILLINOIS (13) - big yikes
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MICHIGAN (5) - unclear if they can't pass, or just haven't needed to because the run game is so good
I'd say it's probably a combo of both. Ronnie Bell is the only proven commodity at WR and he's done for the year. Cade McNamara is probably an average at best QB- but average QB play is light-years ahead of the shit that Tardbaugh has trotted out at QB since Jake Rudock.
Still hoping they make the switch to JJ McCarthy this year- and sooner rather than later.
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I added in @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's vote. Maryland and Indiana are now ahead of Rutgers in both the raw vote and after removing the high and low and Maryland is now ahead of Indiana in both rather than tied in the second list.
Updated rankings:
- Iowa
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Maryland (were tied for 7/8)
- Indiana (were tied for 7/8)
- Rutgers (were sixth)
- Michigan State
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
- Illinois
Note that Maryland (7.86), Indiana (7.93), Rutgers (8.14), and Michigan State (8.29) are all extremely close for 6th through 9th.
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It is fair to level criticism against Iowa's offense; it is paltry; the O-Line hasn't looked good, and the QB is immobile. But, Iowa this season played two ranked teams with legit defenses, and defeated both; the last two games Ohio St played against ranked teams, it lost.
I'm DEFINITELY not saying that Ohio State doesn't have issues, they do. That said, this statement treats "ranked teams" as fungible equivalents and they aren't. The two "ranked teams" that Iowa played were Indiana and Iowa State. Indiana is now unranked and ISU is now #14. The last two ranked teams that Ohio State played are #1 Bama and #4 Oregon. Granted, some of that difference is because tOSU lost and Iowa won but not all of it. For one thing I'm not sure that any team is comparable to Bama.
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Its tempting to push back at Medina's lack of confidence in Indiana, but that's what's so fun about weekly power rankings. All we have to do is wait a couple of weeks to see how Indiana does against Cincinnati and PSU and we will find out soon enough if Indiana was overrated or not to start the season.
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Its tempting to push back at Medina's lack of confidence in Indiana, but that's what's so fun about weekly power rankings. All we have to do is wait a couple of weeks to see how Indiana does against Cincinnati and PSU and we will find out soon enough if Indiana was overrated or not to start the season.
That is so true.
It is entirely possible that Iowa's wins over IU and ISU were phenomenal accomplishments against teams that will win the B12 and B1G-E and that tOSU's competitive win over MN and loss to ORE were indictments because they came against B1G-W and PAC bottom-feeders. OTOH, the opposite is also possible.
Schedules coming up:
Indiana:
- vs Cincy on 9/18
- @ WKU on 9/25
- @ PSU on 10/2
- vs MSU on 10/16
- vs tOSU on 10/23
Iowa State:
- @ UNLV on 9/18
- @ Baylor on 9/25
- vs KU on 10/2
- @ KSU on 10/16
- vs OkSU on 10/23
- @ WVU on 10/30
Minnesota:
- @ Colorado on 9/18
- vs BGSU on 9/25
- @ PU on 10/2
- vs UNL on 10/16
- vs UMD on 10/23
- @ NU on 10/30
Oregon:
- vs Stony Brook on 9/18
- vs Zona on 9/25
- @ Stan on 10/2
- vs Cal on 10/15
- @ UCLA on 10/23
- vs Colorado on 10/30
Of course, in addition to that we'll have a lot more relevant results for Iowa, PSU, tOSU, etc as well.
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Yes, Iowa and PSU have some tough games coming up in October with some potential trap games in-between
Iowa schedule
@MD Friday Oct 1
VS PSU Oct 9
VS Pur Oct 16
@Wisc Oct 30
Although Iowa probably has better odds to beat MD and Purdue than it does to beat PSU and Wiscy, Iowa has a history of losing to or struggling agsinst both MD and Purdue much more than you would expect. Plus Kirk Ferentz always seems to lose to 1 team he shouldn't, then beat 1 team he shouldn't. So I would not be surprised if Iowa goes 2-2 against those 4 but the 2 losses may not be against the teams you think ahead of time.
PSU schedule
VS Indiana Oct 2
@Iowa Oct 9
VS. ILL Oct 23
@OSU Oct 30
Thats a tough October but I see they get a bye in the middle, so that makes it easier. Of course if it turns out that Indiana and Iowa are overrated, then actually their October will be much easier. Still, PSU can not get caught looking ahead to OSU when playing ILL the week before.
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Indiana was clearly overrated to start the season.
They had a B1G record of 6-1 last year, but frankly that was caused by having an extremely positive number in various high-correlation stats, most notably TO margin and INTs. But I showed in some thread that IU's INT numbers were more than double their performance than they were in any other year of the Tom Allen era, suggesting that it was luck rather than scheme.
I think Tom Allen is a good coach. I think IU is a middling B1G team that unfortunately will suffer in their record playing in the B1G-E, but would be >.500 in the B1G-W.
But they don't have the talent to be anything better than middling in the conference, in a power ranking.
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Indiana was clearly overrated to start the season.
They had a B1G record of 6-1 last year, but frankly that was caused by having an extremely positive number in various high-correlation stats, most notably TO margin and INTs. But I showed in some thread that IU's INT numbers were more than double their performance than they were in any other year of the Tom Allen era, suggesting that it was luck rather than scheme.
I think Tom Allen is a good coach. I think IU is a middling B1G team that unfortunately will suffer in their record playing in the B1G-E, but would be >.500 in the B1G-W.
But they don't have the talent to be anything better than middling in the conference, in a power ranking.
Iowa traditionally has been a middling Big Ten team, and it has served Iowa fairly well the past 41-years, because from time-to-time, Iowa is a little north of middling. Indiana traditionally is the losingest Big Ten team. It appears they are building a program.
Perhaps I am speaking out of school, but early indications are that the Eastern Division top to bottom is exceptional. If this were like the Premiere League, and Alabama was promoted to the Big Ten, and tried running the Eastern Division gauntlet, I am thinking there would be at least one loss. Ohio State, with a highly visible weakness, will have difficulty making it to the playoff. I don't think Oregon will be Ohio State's only loss. It is difficult but not impossible to be a two-loss playoff team That said, if a team competing for the playoff were going to lose a game, they want that loss to occur in Week 2; not during Michigan week.
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I added in @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's vote. Maryland and Indiana are now ahead of Rutgers in both the raw vote and after removing the high and low and Maryland is now ahead of Indiana in both rather than tied in the second list.
Updated rankings:
- Iowa
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Maryland (were tied for 7/8)
- Indiana (were tied for 7/8)
- Rutgers (were sixth)
- Michigan State
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
- Illinois
Note that Maryland (7.86), Indiana (7.93), Rutgers (8.14), and Michigan State (8.29) are all extremely close for 6th through 9th.
Take off your beer googles. In the Big Ten it's still Ohio State and everyone else.
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Indiana was clearly overrated to start the season.
They had a B1G record of 6-1 last year, but frankly that was caused by having an extremely positive number in various high-correlation stats, most notably TO margin and INTs. But I showed in some thread that IU's INT numbers were more than double their performance than they were in any other year of the Tom Allen era, suggesting that it was luck rather than scheme.
I think Tom Allen is a good coach. I think IU is a middling B1G team that unfortunately will suffer in their record playing in the B1G-E, but would be >.500 in the B1G-W.
But they don't have the talent to be anything better than middling in the conference, in a power ranking.
I will concede that you did a much more detailed analysis than I ever will on this subject, but if you look at Indiana's scores from 2020 it just doesn't jive with your conclusion.
Vs PSU 36-35 (OT)
@ Rut 37-21
Vs Mich 38-21
@MSU 24-0
@OSU 35-42
MD 27-11
@Wisc 14-6
That's 4 victories by at least 16 points and a solid 8 point victory @Wisc. The only victory you might call a fluke is the PSU victory in OT.
I think by every important measure Indiana was a good team last year in 2020, and with the number of returning starters in 2021, it makes perfect sense to me why Indiana was ranked at the start of this season.
With that said, indiana did lose its bowl game and it did lose its first game in 2021 34-6, so I get why the doubters have come out. But we will see soon for sure, they play Cincinatti in 2 days. If they get blown out by Cincy the same way they lost to Iowa, I will concede that they were overrated THIS year.
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Perhaps I am speaking out of school, but early indications are that the Eastern Division top to bottom is exceptional. If this were like the Premiere League, and Alabama was promoted to the Big Ten, and tried running the Eastern Division gauntlet, I am thinking there would be at least one loss.
We could be wrong of course, but right now the B1G-E teams in these power rankings are ranked:
- #2 PSU
- #3 tOSU
- #5 M
- #6 UMD
- #7 IU
- #8 RU
- #9 MSU
In the current rankings the bottom five teams are all in the B1G-W.
If that is anywhere close to correct the major difficulty for any B1G-E team, no matter how good, is that there simply aren't any easy gimmie games. My thoughts:
- PSU looks very solid.
- tOSU has elite talent so in any given week they could show up and play like a CFP team.
- M looks very solid.
- UMD looks solid.
- IU was pretty good last year and returned a bunch of guys so maybe?
- RU has looked reasonably solid so far.
- MSU has looked solid so far.
No freebies, you have to show up ready for a fight every week.
Ohio State, with a highly visible weakness, will have difficulty making it to the playoff. I don't think Oregon will be Ohio State's only loss. It is difficult but not impossible to be a two-loss playoff team That said, if a team competing for the playoff were going to lose a game, they want that loss to occur in Week 2; not during Michigan week.
If Ohio State is going to be a 2-loss team, what would be the best second loss for their CFP chances?
Ordinarily I would say a non-divisional conference game but there is a problem. Ohio State's B1G-W opponents are:
- #10 in our rankings MN whom the Buckeyes already beat
- #11 in our rankings PU
- #13 in our rankings UNL
The problem is that at least as it appears now any of those would be an embarrassing loss for a CFP contender.
I think that the only way a 2-loss team is going to make it is if they make and win their CG. That makes losing to any B1G-E contender problematic because such a loss would be severely detrimental to tOSU's CG chances due to tiebreakers.
I actually think the answer to this riddle might be Michigan but that is predicated on a number of factors:
- Of the likely B1G-E contenders it appears that Michigan has the toughest schedule with road trips to #2 PSU and #4 UW.
- Assuming Michigan loses those two and tOSU loses only once more, to Michigan, the Buckeyes would finish 8-1 in conference while Michigan finished 7-2. Everybody else in the B1G-E would have at least one loss (to tOSU) and tOSU would own the tiebreakers over all of them so that would get the Buckeyes to the B1GCG.
- It appears likely that the B1G-W will produce a highly ranked B1GCG team because after Iowa and Wisconsin there appears to be a substantial drop-off. Thus it is likely that the UW/IA winner will be 10-2 or better and probably ranked in the top-10 or so.
If the Buckeyes finished 11-2 they'd have respectable losses to quality teams (Oregon and Michigan) and multiple quality wins:
- B1G-W Champion (either Iowa or Wisconsin).
- Penn State.
- At least one other B1G-E team would likely finish 9-3 or better and ranked.
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I will concede that you did a much more detailed analysis than I ever will on this subject, but if you look at Indiana's scores from 2020 it just doesn't jive with your conclusion.
Vs PSU 36-35 (OT)
@ Rut 37-21
Vs Mich 38-21
@MSU 24-0
@OSU 35-42
MD 27-11
@Wisc 14-6
That's 4 victories by at least 16 points and a solid 8 point victory @Wisc. The only victory you might call a fluke is the PSU victory in OT.
I think by every important measure Indiana was a good team last year in 2020, and with the number of returning starters in 2021, it makes perfect sense to me why Indiana was ranked at the start of this season.
With that said, indiana did lose its bowl game and it did lose its first game in 2021 34-6, so I get why the doubters have come out. But we will see soon for sure, they play Cincinatti in 2 days. If they get blown out by Cincy the same way they lost to Iowa, I will concede that they were overrated THIS year.
The reason I did the analysis I did was specifically because of that statement that you make that I've bolded.
If you're looking at wins and losses, and score differentials, they look like a pretty good team.
And if that's what you consider to be the "important measure", and there's a VERY strong argument that it should be given that no measurement carries more weight than a W at the end of the game, and a lot more Ws than Ls at the end of the season, I could agree.
But that's why I posted this:
Indiana in 2020...
- Yards per play: 5.05 / Opponent yards per play: 5.52
- First downs: 162 / Opponent first downs: 161
- Penalties: 34 (358 yards) / Opponent penalties: 60 (566 yards)
- Indiana turnover margin: 8 (one per game in the shortened season)
- Fourth down conversion: 53.33% (8 of 15) / Opponent: 30.77% (4 of 13)
- Red Zone conversion: 82.86% (29 of 35) / Opponent: 64% (16 of 25)
- FG%: 90.9% (10 of 11) / Opponent: 41.7% (5 of 12)
Statistically, Indiana wasn't a particularly amazing team.
They did a few things well. They got a lot of interceptions (17) while not throwing many (5), which gave them an excellent turnover margin (despite being -4 in fumbles lost relative to opponent). They got a very high 4th down conversion rate. They held their opponents to surprisingly low red zone percentage,
and a surprisingly low FG percentage. And of course there's a significant difference in penalties.
I'd argue, however, that many of those stats--which were probably the difference between a 6-2 and 4-4 or 3-5 record--are not sustainable year over year.
Fool's gold, IMHO.
Now, those are not all the relevant statistics, only the ones I saw that really stood out. However I picked them because they somewhat stand out, and because a lot of those are highly correlated to W/L but may or may not be sustainable season to season.
- Yards per play and opponent yards per play show a team that should be even to slightly behind their opponents, and do not correlate with the final scores of those games and a 6-1 record in conference.
- The penalty differential could indicate a well-coached, highly-disciplined football team. Or it could be luck.
- The turnover margin could be caused by defensive scheme, but as I pointed out, particularly with INTs it doesn't correlate with any past season for IU with Tom Allen as coach, so I don't see a reason that it is sustainable. I also pointed out in a follow-up comment that their TO margin was positive in all 6 wins, and negative in their 2 losses (OSU + bowl). TO margin is one of the LARGEST correlations to winning.
- 4th down conversion and red zone conversion differences could indicate a really good defensive scheme, but we have already seen that IU gave up higher YPP that it earned, and only gave up 1 fewer first down than they made themselves, a wash. Maybe it's a "bend but don't break" defense? I dunno--they broke a lot in past seasons...
- Opponent FG percentage is just random chance. You can't expect opponents to kick at 41.7% in future seasons.
I maintain that in football, Success = Coaching + Talent + Luck
I think 2020 IU had good coaching, and a lot of luck, but I don't think they're anywhere near the talent level they need to be ranked. They still have good coaching, but it would be reasonable to think that 2021 won't have the same luck as 2020.
In the 247 talent composite rankings (https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=Big-Ten), IU is currently 8th in the conference (6th in the B1G-E). The gap from 8th to 13th in the conference is 35 points. The gap from 8th to 6th in the conference is 40 points, to 4th/5th is about 80 points, to 2nd/3rd is about 160 points, and to OSU in 1st is 320 points.
IU was ranked preseason because those doing the rankings are lazy.
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Ordinarily I would say a non-divisional conference game but there is a problem. Ohio State's B1G-W opponents are:
- #10 in our rankings MN whom the Buckeyes already beat
- #11 in our rankings PU
- #13 in our rankings UNL
You have thought this through more than me. I had not considered the advantage of losing out-of-division, which seems virtually impossible for Ohio St, although Purdue does have some experience with Ohio St in this area.
The problem is if you lose "in-division" your divisional rival has to lose two games "in-division" in order for your team to overcome their team; which seems unlikely for a divisional champion. Iowa has a lot of experience in this realm getting beat down by Wisconsin.
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Massey composite rankings (last week in parentheses)
- Alabama (1)
- Georgia (3)
- IOWA (6)
- Oklahoma (4)
- Texas A&M (5)
- PENN STATE (14)
- Clemson (7)
- Oregon (16)
- OHIO STATE (2)
- Cincinnati (9)
- Florida (11)
- Notre Dame (10)
- UCLA (17)
- Ole Miss (21)
- WISCONSIN (19)
- MICHIGAN (23)
- Auburn (15)
- Iowa State (13)
- BYU (24)
- Texas (8)
- TCU (20)
- North Carolina (-)
- Virginia Tech (-)
- Arkansas (-)
- Central Florida (-)
- 26. Indiana (29)
- 39. Michigan State (39)
- 41. Maryland (58)
- 43. Purdue (61)
- 47. Nebraska (69)
- 48. Rutgers (67)
- 51. Minnesota (37)
- 63. Northwestern (60)
- 93. Illinois (88)
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Can the Bearcats nose ahead of the Buckeyes this week? They are one spot behind, and they get to play a marquee game against Indiana while OSU toils away with Tulsa.
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/5ynZI1ejCcU/hqdefault.jpg)