CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Abba on September 05, 2021, 09:44:43 PM
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The East got out to an early lead with a 3-1 edge week 1.
OSU d. Minny
MSU d. NU
PSU d. Wisc
Iowa d. Indiana
Up next: Maryland at Illinois on Sep 17.
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West hosted all 4, and were favored in 3 of them
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If this turns out to be one of NW's down years, it could be a long year for the West division.
But if its like most years, one division will jump out to an early lead, only for the lead to tighten with a couple of upsets late in the year and again it will all come down to the CCG game, which will be won by the East again.
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Divisive thread.
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Divisive thread.
Follow the science. 😂
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Each team and what inter-divisional games they have left:
B1G-E:
- 1-0 Ohio State, vs PU, at UNL
- 1-0 Penn State, at IA, vs IL
- 0-0 Michigan, at UW, vs NU, at UNL
- 0-0 Maryland, vs IA, at MN, at IL
- 1-0 Michigan State, at PU, vs UNL
- 0-1 Indiana, vs MN, at PU
- 0-0 Rutgers, vs UW, at IL, at NU
B1G-W:
- 1-0 Iowa, vs PSU, at UMD
- 0-1 Wisconsin, vs M, at RU
- 0-1 Minnesota, vs UMD, at IU
- 0-0 Purdue, at tOSU, vs MSU, vs IU
- 0-0 Illinois, at PSU, vs UMD, vs RU
- 0-1 Northwestern, at M, vs RU
- 0-0 Nebraska, vs tOSU, vs M, at MSU
Opponent in bold if the team is ranked higher than them in our current power rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-1-23773/msg367609/#msg367609).
If the higher ranked team wins all remaining games, here would be the final:
B1G-E:
- 3-0 Ohio State
- 3-0 Penn State
- 2-1 Michigan
- 2-1 Maryland
- 3-0 Michigan State
- 1-2 Indiana
- 2-1 Rutgers
- 16-5 B1G-E
B1G-W:
- 2-1 Iowa
- 2-1 Wisconsin
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 0-3 Purdue
- 0-3 Illinois
- 0-3 Northwestern
- 0-3 Nebraska
- 5-16 B1G-W
I'm not saying this *WILL* happen or making any prediction just pointing out that as of right now the B1G-W needs a boatload of upsets just to get close. They'd need five upset wins just to get to 10-11 where the B1GCG would come in to play.
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we all know it won't happen
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Historically its always been close except for 2017
East vs West record since East-West divisions were established in 2014
Year, regular season record (record with CCG)
2014. 7-7 (8-7)
2015. 7-7 (8-7)
2016. 10-11 (11-11)
2017. 13-8. (14-8)
2018. 11-10. (12-10)
2019. 11-10. (12-10)
2020. equal win-loss record without CCG. (+1 with CCG)
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One of the worst showings in East vs West was Indiana at Iowa. There were expectations from the Hoosiers this season, unlike most seasons. I missed this game, so I want to know, if it was because Iowa was so strong, or because Indiana was so weak? Thank you for any info (the box score only tells me so much).
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Penix Jr. throwing 3 picks, two that went for 6 each put the Hawks in a spot where they could be conservative, play defense and run the ball
hard for me to tell how strong or weak either team will be, game was over early
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So in one year he went from a fully extended Penix to "scared turtle" type shrinkage?
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One of the worst showings in East vs West was Indiana at Iowa. There were expectations from the Hoosiers this season, unlike most seasons. I missed this game, so I want to know, if it was because Iowa was so strong, or because Indiana was so weak? Thank you for any info (the box score only tells me so much).
Last year, Indiana couldn't run the ball and was largely home run or bust through the air, with Penix having a 56% completion rate. That offensive style plays perfectly into Iowa's defensive style, as they will take away the deep ball and force you to methodically move down the field.
Indiana's defense was solid, but not dominant, and Iowa's offense looked familiarly pedestrian. Penix definitely showed some rust, but if you line them up again, I firmly believe Iowa wins that game in a 24-13ish manner.
As Penix gets settled, I think he still has the WR corps to pick on weaker secondaries, but as a whole, I think Indiana was very overhyped coming into the season.
Iowa's defense should be one of the better units in the conference, but is still going to struggle with teams willing to take what Iowa gives (Wisconsin, Iowa State, Minnesota, Purdue).
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Thanks for the analysis FearlessF and Iahawk15.
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Indiana in 2020...
- Yards per play: 5.05 / Opponent yards per play: 5.52
- First downs: 162 / Opponent first downs: 161
- Penalties: 34 (358 yards) / Opponent penalties: 60 (566 yards)
- Indiana turnover margin: 8 (one per game in the shortened season)
- Fourth down conversion: 53.33% (8 of 15) / Opponent: 30.77% (4 of 13)
- Red Zone conversion: 82.86% (29 of 35) / Opponent: 64% (16 of 25)
- FG%: 90.9% (10 of 11) / Opponent: 41.7% (5 of 12)
Statistically, Indiana wasn't a particularly amazing team.
They did a few things well. They got a lot of interceptions (17) while not throwing many (5), which gave them an excellent turnover margin (despite being -4 in fumbles lost relative to opponent). They got a very high 4th down conversion rate. They held their opponents to surprisingly low red zone percentage,
and a surprisingly low FG percentage. And of course there's a significant difference in penalties.
I'd argue, however, that many of those stats--which were probably the difference between a 6-2 and 4-4 or 3-5 record--are not sustainable year over year.
Fool's gold, IMHO.
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There is talk that if the Big Ten, ACC and PAC are serious about forming a scheduling alliance the Big Ten would go back to 8 conference games so that each Big Ten team can play 1 game OOC against the ACC and 1 game OOC against the PAC
Not sure if that will ever happen but if the Big Ten really does go back to 8 games, I think the best way that works with 14 teams total is to get rid of divisions. This would require changing the NCAA rules for CCG so the conference can send whatever 2 teams they want to the CCG. but thats ok because it seems like all conferences are trending that way anyway.
Instead the Big Ten can set up a 8-game conference schedule where each team has 3 permanent rivals and plays the other 10 teams 50% of the time. I believe this is the best approach even if the scheduling alliance never happens.
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There is talk that if the Big Ten, ACC and PAC are serious about forming a scheduling alliance the Big Ten would go back to 8 conference games so that each Big Ten team can play 1 game OOC against the ACC and 1 game OOC against the PAC
Not sure if that will ever happen but if the Big Ten really does go back to 8 games, I think the best way that works with 14 teams total is to get rid of divisions. This would require changing the NCAA rules for CCG so the conference can send whatever 2 teams they want to the CCG. but thats ok because it seems like all conferences are trending that way anyway.
Instead the Big Ten can set up a 8-game conference schedule where each team has 3 permanent rivals and plays the other 10 teams 50% of the time. I believe this is the best approach even if the scheduling alliance never happens.
I'd be good with that.
May be some wonky tiebreakers for the CCG in a 14-team conference, particularly if you have one team that ran away with 1st and you have 2, 3, or more teams tied for second.
But I'm sure the tiebreaker gurus can figure out some convoluted and arcane method that nobody understands...
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Indiana in 2020...
- Yards per play: 5.05 / Opponent yards per play: 5.52
- First downs: 162 / Opponent first downs: 161
- Penalties: 34 (358 yards) / Opponent penalties: 60 (566 yards)
- Indiana turnover margin: 8 (one per game in the shortened season)
- Fourth down conversion: 53.33% (8 of 15) / Opponent: 30.77% (4 of 13)
- Red Zone conversion: 82.86% (29 of 35) / Opponent: 64% (16 of 25)
- FG%: 90.9% (10 of 11) / Opponent: 41.7% (5 of 12)
Statistically, Indiana wasn't a particularly amazing team.
They did a few things well. They got a lot of interceptions (17) while not throwing many (5), which gave them an excellent turnover margin (despite being -4 in fumbles lost relative to opponent). They got a very high 4th down conversion rate. They held their opponents to surprisingly low red zone percentage,
and a surprisingly low FG percentage. And of course there's a significant difference in penalties.
I'd argue, however, that many of those stats--which were probably the difference between a 6-2 and 4-4 or 3-5 record--are not sustainable year over year.
Fool's gold, IMHO.
I was kinda thinking the same thing but didn't want to do the research to prove it. Of course the guy who DID do the research is a fan of their rival, LoL. Anyway, I agree, they were solid in 2020 but probably not quite as good as their record.
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I'd be good with that.
May be some wonky tiebreakers for the CCG in a 14-team conference, particularly if you have one team that ran away with 1st and you have 2, 3, or more teams tied for second.
But I'm sure the tiebreaker gurus can figure out some convoluted and arcane method that nobody understands...
In a situation like you described I'd want to emphasize record against the runaway #1 rather than record against each other.
Example #1:
Lets say one team runs the table and finishes #1 at 8-0 while three teams tie for second at 6-2. We'll call them team A, team B, and team C. Now suppose:
- Team A lost to #1, beat B and C, and lost another game.
- Team B lost to #1 and team A, beat team C and won the rest of their games.
- Team C didn't play #1, lost to team A and team B, and won the rest of their games.
Traditionally Team A would be the obvious choice because they'd be 2-0 in the H2H while team B was 1-1 and team C was 0-2. I'd rather see team C get the slot on the theory that they haven't had a chance yet while teams A and B each already had their shot at #1.
Example #2:
Again lets say one team runs the table and finishes #1 at 8-0 while three teams tie for second at 6-2:
- Team A lost to #1, beat B and C, and lost another game.
- Team B didn't play #1, lost to team A, and beat team C, and lost another game.
- Team C BEAT #1, lost to B and C, and won the rest of their games.
Traditionally Team A would be the obvious choice because they'd be 2-0 H2H while team B was 1-1 and team C was 0-2. I'd rather see team C get the slot on the theory that they have shown that they can beat #1, let them prove it wasn't a fluke. Conversely, team A already lost to #1 and team B didn't play them.
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I was kinda thinking the same thing but didn't want to do the research to prove it. Of course the guy who DID do the research is a fan of their rival, LoL. Anyway, I agree, they were solid in 2020 but probably not quite as good as their record.
Yeah, I saw someone on H&R mention the yards per play thing and how they had a great TO margin, and so I figured I'd chase it down on cfbstats.com because I was wondering how you get to a 6-2 record when you go an entire season being beat in yards per play...
I don't think they were as "solid" as people think in 2020. They weren't as bad as I'd like them to be, of course. I think Allen is doing good things there. But when people started throwing them out there as a top-4 in the conference team? Nah... They don't have the talent.
Likewise I could look at picking some stats from Purdue last year:
- PPG: 27.2 / Opponent: 29.8
- Yards per play: 5.70 / Opponent: 5.38
- TO Margin: Even
- 3rd Down Conversion: 37.5% / Opponent: 43.68%
- TOP: 27:36 / Opp: 32:25
- Red Zone Success: 75% / Opp: 81.25%
- FG Made %: 77.8% / Opp: 100%
You look at those stats and 2-4 or 3-3 would equally make sense. If I told you that Purdue went 2-4 and lost 3 of those games by one possession and the worst loss was 10 points? Makes sense, right? Purdue was in every game, but they had trouble staying on the field on 3rd down, trouble converting in the red zone, and their opponents had advantages there. It's a recipe for a bunch of close losses.
Purdue looks like a middling to slightly below middling B1G team, which is probably what they are. Their stats pretty much look like their record.
But IU goes 6-1 in conference and everyone thinks they're the shizznit, but when you look at their stats you realize that they were punching above their weight class last year, and that's not sustainable with their talent leve.
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I was kinda thinking the same thing but didn't want to do the research to prove it. Of course the guy who DID do the research is a fan of their rival, LoL. Anyway, I agree, they were solid in 2020 but probably not quite as good as their record.
I get into similar discussions when discussing if an easy schedule can skew a teams record, but you can use the same thinking with luck. Usually my response is, an easy schedule can turn a 7-5 team into an 8-4 team, but it does not turn a 7-5 team into an 11-1 team. At some point, you just have to concede that a team is pretty good.
Indiana was 6-1 in conference last year with its only loss to OSU. You could argue they were a little lucky to beat PSU, and lucky they did not have to play Iowa during champions week, so they might have finished 5-3 in conference if things went a little differently. But they still were a good team last year, and probably will be a good team this year too.
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I get into similar discussions when discussing if an easy schedule can skew a teams record, but you can use the same thinking with luck. Usually my response is, an easy schedule can turn a 7-5 team into an 8-4 team, but it does not turn a 7-5 team into an 11-1 team. At some point, you just have to concede that a team is pretty good.
The bigger the conferences get the less I agree with you here. Back when the Big Ten actually had 10 members and each team played eight of the other nine each year I agree, schedule didn't make much difference. Miss the worst team, go 5-3, miss the best team, go 6-2. Now . . .
For a middling team schedule can be pretty big. Play the best three teams in the other division, go 3-6; play the worst three teams in the other division, go 6-3. That is a MUCH bigger difference.
The SEC is about to go to 16 teams. If they stick with their eight game schedule then each team will only be playing half of the teams in the league each year. That will make it impossible to just say "SEC schedule" because there will be an enormous difference each year between the strongest and the weakest "SEC schedule".
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I get into similar discussions when discussing if an easy schedule can skew a teams record, but you can use the same thinking with luck. Usually my response is, an easy schedule can turn a 7-5 team into an 8-4 team, but it does not turn a 7-5 team into an 11-1 team. At some point, you just have to concede that a team is pretty good.
Indiana was 6-1 in conference last year with its only loss to OSU. You could argue they were a little lucky to beat PSU, and lucky they did not have to play Iowa during champions week, so they might have finished 5-3 in conference if things went a little differently. But they still were a good team last year, and probably will be a good team this year too.
IMHO we underestimate luck and volatility.
There are ~130 teams in FBS (I can't keep track annually). Out of those 130, you don't think there's at least 1 team that will have a +4 or -4 variance to expected wins in a given year?
Yeah, we look at it after the fact and say "they forced a bunch of turnovers; they were a good team", but there's a difference between teams that can force a bunch of turnovers year-over-year through scheme and who got lucky.
Let's look at IU's interceptions per year since Tom Allen became coach (hence where scheme could affect it):
- 2016: 13 INT in 13 games: 1 per game
- 2017: 5 INT in 12 games: 0.42 per game
- 2018: 13 INT in 12 games: 1.08 per game
- 2019: 7 INT in 13 games: 0.54 per game
- 2020: 17 INT in 8 games: 2.13 per game
Which season looks like the outlier here?
BTW in 2016-2019, IU threw more interceptions than they gathered in every year except 2018, where they were equal. In 2020 they only threw 5 picks.
Turnovers are one of the biggest correlations to wins in the entire game.
Look at their turnover margin per 2020 game:
- PSU: Win, +1
- @Rut: Win, +3
- UM: Win, +2
- @MSU: Win, +2
- @OSU: Loss, -1
- UMD: Win, +2
- @UW: Win, +1
- bowlOleMiss: Loss, -2
Every win was +, every loss was -. That's not sustainable IMHO.
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There is talk that if the Big Ten, ACC and PAC are serious about forming a scheduling alliance the Big Ten would go back to 8 conference games so that each Big Ten team can play 1 game OOC against the ACC and 1 game OOC against the PAC
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Instead the Big Ten can set up a 8-game conference schedule where each team has 3 permanent rivals and plays the other 10 teams 50% of the time. I believe this is the best approach even if the scheduling alliance never happens.
I doubt this will happen. Iowa's athletic department will object as it wants to schedule Iowa State every year, and UNI at least twice a decade. Still hoping Iowa replaces Iowa State on its schedule every other year, or so with Notre Dame.
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Notre Dame could be the ACC team
East and West divisions aren't going away
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Illinois blows a golden opportunity against Maryland, giving the Big Ten East a 4-1 lead this year. Next up:
Nebraska @ Michigan State at 7PM on Saturday. Nebraska has apparently impressed Vegas, as the Spartans are only favored by 4 points.
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Illinois blows a golden opportunity against Maryland, giving the Big Ten East a 4-1 lead this year. Next up:
Nebraska @ Michigan State at 7PM on Saturday. Nebraska has apparently impressed Vegas, as the Spartans are only favored by 4 points.
Nobody updated this, the Spartans won albeit barely so the B1G-E now holds a 5-1 lead on these six games (with current B1G Power Rankings):
- #1 PSU won at #6 UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- #2 tOSU won at #12 MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- #3 Iowa won vs #9 IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- #5 MSU won vs #11 UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- #5 MSU won at #13 NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- #7 UMD won at #14 IL, 5-1 B1G-E
And the following 16 games remain (with current B1G Power Ranking):
- #3 Iowa at #7 UMD on 10/1
- #4 M at #6 UW on 10/2
- #1 PSU at #3 Iowa on 10/9
- #4 M at #11 UNL on 10/9
- #8 RU at #13 NU on 10/16
- #1 PSU vs #14 IL on 10/23
- #4 M vs #13 NU on 10/23
- #5 UMD at #12 MN on 10/23
- #8 RU at #14 IL on 10/30
- #2 tOSU at #11 UNL on 11/6
- #5 MSU at #10 PU on 11/6
- #6 UW at #8 RU on 11/6
- #2 tOSU vs #10 PU on 11/13
- #9 IU vs #12 MN on 11/20
- #9 IU at #10 PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
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This scheduling alliance thing could be mostly for show, and voluntary.
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I really see the next two weeks being key to whether or not the B1G-W can make it competitive:
And the following 16 games remain (with current B1G Power Ranking):
- #3 Iowa at #7 UMD on 10/1
- #4 M at #6 UW on 10/2
- #1 PSU at #3 Iowa on 10/9
- #4 M at #11 UNL on 10/9
Obviously Michigan should win at Nebraska but I could see the other three games going 3-0 either way:
- Iowa at Maryland: Every single voted voted Iowa ahead of Maryland so we all agree that the Hawkeyes are the better team. OTOH, the Hawkeyes are on the road on a short week and the gap between them may not be all that big.
- Michigan at Wisconsin: Only @Temp430 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=131) and @Benthere2 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=36) voted Wisconsin ahead of Michigan. The other 13 of us agree that Michigan is the better team but the Wolverines are on the road and Madison is a notoriously tough environment.
- PSU at Iowa: The same two voters have Iowa ranked ahead of PSU, the other 13 of us agree that PSU is the better team but the Nittany Lions are on the road and Kinnick is another notoriously tough environment.
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The B1G West looks horrible right now, save Iowa.
The B1G East looks quite a bit better on paper, save Indiana.
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it's early
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The bigger the conferences get the less I agree with you here. Back when the Big Ten actually had 10 members and each team played eight of the other nine each year I agree, schedule didn't make much difference. Miss the worst team, go 5-3, miss the best team, go 6-2. Now . . .
For a middling team schedule can be pretty big. Play the best three teams in the other division, go 3-6; play the worst three teams in the other division, go 6-3. That is a MUCH bigger difference.
The SEC is about to go to 16 teams. If they stick with their eight game schedule then each team will only be playing half of the teams in the league each year. That will make it impossible to just say "SEC schedule" because there will be an enormous difference each year between the strongest and the weakest "SEC schedule".
But you are discounting the odds that an average team will win at least 1 game against the 3 best teams and the odds an average team will lose at least one game against the 3 worst teams.
Lets say the average team has an 80% chance of winning each game against the 3 worst teams. The odds of winning all 3 games are then 0.8 x 0.8x 0.8 = 51%. Odds of going 2-1 or worse is 49%
And thats worst case scenario. But more likely an easy schedule involves missing the top 2 teams, playing an average team and 2 bad teams. The odds of going 3-0 are 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.5 = 28%.
Odds are better in many cases an average team goes 2-1 with an easy schedule and 1-2 with a hard schedule. Final result an easy schedule turns an average 7-5 team into an 8-4 team
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I bet Nebraska is going to be a very tough out for Michigan, and really everyone in the Big Ten. They are eventually gonna play a clean game and pull an upset.
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The B1G West looks horrible right now, save Iowa.
The B1G East looks quite a bit better on paper, save Indiana.
The Big Ten West better get it turned around otherwise this will be the worst performance by a Big Ten division ever.
It could also be the first time in history a division winner has more than 2 losses in a season unless 1 of the West teams goes 6-0 inside its division.
But we have been here before, and then a team like Northwestern comes out of nowhere and finishes 8-1 in conference. There may still be a team that has that secret potential to develop into a good team by seasons end (Purdue maybe?).
But if nobody steps for the West, its going to get ugly.
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But you are discounting the odds that an average team will win at least 1 game against the 3 best teams and the odds an average team will lose at least one game against the 3 worst teams.
Lets say the average team has an 80% chance of winning each game against the 3 worst teams. The odds of winning all 3 games are then 0.8 x 0.8x 0.8 = 51%. Odds of going 2-1 or worse is 49%
And thats worst case scenario. But more likely an easy schedule involves missing the top 2 teams, playing an average team and 2 bad teams. The odds of going 3-0 are 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.5 = 28%.
Odds are better in many cases an average team goes 2-1 with an easy schedule and 1-2 with a hard schedule. Final result an easy schedule turns an average 7-5 team into an 8-4 team
I don't disagree, but when the team in question goes 2-1 against the bottom three or 1-2 against the top three we don't really care. It only becomes an issue when the team in question goes 3-0 against the bottom three or 0-3 against the top three.
I'll use this year's Iowa team as an example:
Suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division and beat the worst three teams in the B1G-E (IU, RU, UMD per current Power Rankings). They'd be 11-1 and some people would be talking CFP. It matters because they went 3-0 against the worst three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 2-1 then they'd be 10-2 and we wouldn't really be talking about them.
Conversely, suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division, and lost to the three best teams in the B1G-E (PSU, tOSU, and M per current Power Rankings). They'd only be 8-4. Schedule matters because they'd be very good for an 8-4 team. They'd probably be the best team in the B1G-W although they'd be unlikely to win it at 5-4. It matters because they went 0-3 against the best three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 1-2 then they'd be 9-3 and their record would align much more closely with their team.
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I don't disagree, but when the team in question goes 2-1 against the bottom three or 1-2 against the top three we don't really care. It only becomes an issue when the team in question goes 3-0 against the bottom three or 0-3 against the top three.
I'll use this year's Iowa team as an example:
Suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division and beat the worst three teams in the B1G-E (IU, RU, UMD per current Power Rankings). They'd be 11-1 and some people would be talking CFP. It matters because they went 3-0 against the worst three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 2-1 then they'd be 10-2 and we wouldn't really be talking about them.
Conversely, suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division, and lost to the three best teams in the B1G-E (PSU, tOSU, and M per current Power Rankings). They'd only be 8-4. Schedule matters because they'd be very good for an 8-4 team. They'd probably be the best team in the B1G-W although they'd be unlikely to win it at 5-4. It matters because they went 0-3 against the best three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 1-2 then they'd be 9-3 and their record would align much more closely with their team.
Fair enough, I get your point now, but we are still talking rare circumstances. I challenge you to find just 1 example where a team went 0-3 outside their division and 5-1 or 6-0 inside their division.
The closest example I can think of is the year Wisconsin went 1-2 outside the division and 6-0 inside the division. And Wisconsin still won their division.
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Fair enough, I get your point now, but we are still talking rare circumstances. I challenge you to find just 1 example where a team went 0-3 outside their division and 5-1 or 6-0 inside their division.
The closest example I can think of is the year Wisconsin went 1-2 outside the division and 6-0 inside the division. And Wisconsin still won their division.
I'm not going to search for it and I'll concede that it might not exist . . . yet. However, as we progress further and further from the old days where each team in the nine-member ACC played all the others and each team in the 10-member BigTen and SEC played all but one of the others the phrases "BigTen/Big11Ten/B1G schedule", "ACC schedule", and "SEC schedule" become less meaningful.
Years ago you pretty much knew who those teams played without having to look it up because they played almost everybody. When the SEC adds OU and UT to get to 16 members then plays an eight-game schedule my position is that the phrase "SEC schedule" will be nearly meaningless. Each of the 16 teams will be playing barely over half of the other teams. There will be years in which a specific SEC team plays a brutal schedule that includes nearly all of the best teams and other years in which a specific SEC team gets off pretty lightly because they manage to duck nearly all of the best teams.
For a more current example, here is my usual schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/p8fwMDA.png)
As you can see, I've bolded the crossover games and put them in boxes. Penn State has the toughest schedule in the league because they play in the tougher division AND they play the two toughest teams in the other division. Conversely, Iowa plays in the weaker division and two of their three cross-over games are against two of the three weakest teams in the other division. Now look at the impact:
Against the top-5 teams in the league:
- Penn State has four games, three on the road.
- Iowa has one game, at home.
Against the top-9 teams in the league:
- Penn State has eight games, five on the road.
- Iowa has four games, two on the road.
Against the bottom-5 teams in the league:
- Penn State has one home game.
- Iowa has five games, two on the road.
Penn State and Iowa appear to be very good teams so lets ignore HFA (for the sake of this example only) and assume that they are 50/50 against the top-5, 75% against the middle-four, and 80% against the bottom-5:
Iowa:
- ONE game against the top-5: 0.5-0.5
- three games against the middle-4: 2.25-0.75
- FIVE games against the bottom-5: 4-1
- Total: 6.75-2.25
Penn State:
- FOUR games against the top-5: 2-2
- four games against the middle-4, 3-1
- ONE game against the bottom-5: 0.8-0.2
- Total: 5.8-3.2
That is only about a one-game difference but if they both avoid upsets against the bottom feeders it moves to:
- 7.75-1.25 Iowa
- 6-3 Penn State
Now it is almost a two-game difference and Iowa at 7-2 or 8-1 is at least a contender for the B1GCG while PSU at 6-3 is probably an also-ran.
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Updated for 10/1-2 games. The B1G-E now holds a 6-2 lead on these eight games (with current B1G Power Rankings):
- #3 PSU won at #7 UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- #2 tOSU won at #10 MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- #1 Iowa won vs #11 IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- #5 MSU won vs #6 UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- #5 MSU won at #14 NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- #8 UMD won at #13 IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- #1 Iowa won at #8 UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- #4 M won at #7 UW, 6-2 B1G-E
And the following 14 games remain (with current B1G Power Ranking):
- #3 PSU at #1 Iowa on 10/9
- #4 M at #6 UNL on 10/9
- #9 RU at #14 NU on 10/16
- #3 PSU vs #13 IL on 10/23
- #4 M vs #14 NU on 10/23
- #8 UMD at #10 MN on 10/23
- #9 RU at #13 IL on 10/30
- #2 tOSU at #6 UNL on 11/6
- #5 MSU at #12 PU on 11/6
- #7 UW at #9 RU on 11/6
- #2 tOSU vs #12 PU on 11/13
- #11 IU vs #10 MN on 11/20
- #11 IU at #12 PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
See update above, we have now played more than 1/3 of these games.
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Ugh, if current power rankings hold, this projects out to the West finishing 6-16 this year. If the Big Ten ends up scrapping the divisions after this year, this would be a horrible way for the West to go out.
But if the current power rankings hold, then at least the West will win the CCG for the first time, with Iowa beating OSU. I guess I will believe that when I see it, but that may be a way to remove some of the sting from the absolute atrocious performance by the West in 2021.
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current power rankings have never held from week 6
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current power rankings have never held from week 6
This is true but after a certain extent it is also somewhat misleading. If you look at the first two match-ups (3vs1 and 4vs6) it is not all that unlikely that we are wrong in our rankings and #3 and #6 are actually better than #1 and #4. However the third is #9 vs #14 where it is strongly likely that #9 is actually better than #14 and the next two after that are even more extreme:
- #3 PSU vs #13 IL on 10/23
- #4 M vs #14 NU on 10/23
Upsets are always possible but our rankings can't possibly be so far off that Illinois and Northwestern are actually superior to Penn State and Michigan.
Looking at the 14 remaining match-ups:
- W is two spots better and at home.
- E is 2 spots better but on the road.
- E is 5 spots better but on the road.
- E is 10 spots better and at home.
- E is 10 spots better and at home.
- E is 2 spots better but on the road.
- E is 4 spots better but on the road.
- E is 4 spots better but on the road.
- E is 7 spots better but on the road.
- W is 2 spots better but on the road.
- E is 10 spots better and at home.
- W is 1 spot better but on the road.
- E is 1 spot better but on the road.
- W is 1 spot better at a neutral site.
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Upsets are always possible but our rankings can't possibly be so far off that Illinois and Northwestern are actually superior to Penn State and Michigan.
I'll certainly agree with this
just hoping Nebraska can upset Michigan and prove that bit of our ranking wrong.......
for one night in Lincoln
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current power rankings have never held from week 6
Probably pretty close last year. :93:
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Ugh, if current power rankings hold, this projects out to the West finishing 6-16 this year. If the Big Ten ends up scrapping the divisions after this year, this would be a horrible way for the West to go out.
But if the current power rankings hold, then at least the West will win the CCG for the first time, with Iowa beating OSU. I guess I will believe that when I see it, but that may be a way to remove some of the sting from the absolute atrocious performance by the West in 2021.
What evidence is there that divisional realignment occurs in 2022? Haven't we looked at this over the years and found that East and West were one or two games apart at season end? So we are going to scrap this because Ohio State dominates the championship game? That's one team. Are we going to place them in the West with Michigan? This makes no sense. I know msu beat Iowa in 2015, but that was down to the wire.
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What evidence is there that divisional realignment occurs in 2022? Haven't we looked at this over the years and found that East and West were one or two games apart at season end? So we are going to scrap this because Ohio State dominates the championship game? That's one team. Are we going to place them in the West with Michigan? This makes no sense. I know msu beat Iowa in 2015, but that was down to the wire.
Right, if the BigTen keeps divisions, they will probably keep the East-West format, but there is talk that the Big Ten might scrap its divisions and go with a divisionless format where each team plays 3 to 5 protected rivals each year and play everybody else at least 50% of the time. Then have the top 2 teams go the CCG. This would require a change to the NCAA's current rules for CCG.
No evidence right now, there is just talk and speculation that schedules may change with a potential scheduling alliance between the BigTen, ACC and PAC coming. There is talk that the BigTen will reduce the number conference games from 9 to 8 games so that each team can play 1 or 2 games against the ACC or PAC.
If the BigTen goes to 8 conference games, they may decide to switch to a divisionless format so that everybody will play everybody else at least 50% of the time.
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What evidence is there that divisional realignment occurs in 2022? Haven't we looked at this over the years and found that East and West were one or two games apart at season end? So we are going to scrap this because Ohio State dominates the championship game? That's one team. Are we going to place them in the West with Michigan? This makes no sense. I know msu beat Iowa in 2015, but that was down to the wire.
I don't have time right now, maybe later today but I'd be interested to compare B1G-E and B1G-W team by team such that we could exclude one or two really good or really bad teams.
What I'm driving at is if the B1G-E dominates ONLY because tOSU dominates the B1GCG then there is no reason to scrap or change divisions because no matter where you put tOSU, that division would dominate. OTOH, if it is more than that then there might be.
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Penn State and Michigan State also won the Big Ten in the East-West era, but those were razor thin games that came down to the wire.
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I was going to say, non-OSU East teams are 3-1 in the CCG.
The one time OSU lost a CCG was when they had to play a current East team.
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Penn State and Michigan State also won the Big Ten in the East-West era, but those were razor thin games that came down to the wire.
In the East/West era prior to this year and not counting the CG (I'll add that back in later), here are the cross-divisional records by school and by year:
(https://i.imgur.com/ZuhfWQV.png)
That is about as even as you could realistically hope for:
- West by one game in 2016
- Tied in 2014, 2015, and 2020
- East by one game in 2018 and 2019
- East by five games in 2017
The B1G-E won by a LOT in 2017 but other than that it has been pretty even. With the exception of 2017 we have headed into the CG every year either tied or within one game.
Here are the CG's:
- 2014 B1G-E tOSU over UW, 59-0
- 2015 B1G-E MSU over IA, 16-13
- 2016 B1G-E PSU over UW, 38-31
- 2017 B1G-E tOSU over UW, 27-21
- 2018 B1G-E tOSU over NU, 45-24
- 2019 B1G-E tOSU over UW 34-21
- 2020 B1G-E tOSU over NU 22-10
B1G-E is 7-0 in CG's. As you stated, MSU's and PSU's wins in 2015 and 2016 were one-score games as was tOSU's win in 2017 but the other four tOSU wins were by 12, 13, 21, and 59 points. FWIW, under Legends/Leaders we had two one-score games (UW over MSU by a FG and MSU over tOSU by a TD) and a blowout (UW over UNL by 29).
When you add in the CG's, it isn't close:
- Tied in 2016
- East by one game in 2014, 2015, and 2020
- East by two games in 2018 and 2019
- East by six games in 2017
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I was going to say, non-OSU East teams are 3-1 in the CCG.
The one time OSU lost a CCG was when they had to play a current East team.
Current B1G-E teams are 8-2 in the B1GCG and one of the two losses was inevitable because the CG was between two current B1G-E teams.
Current B1G-W teams are 2-8 in the B1GCG and one of the two wins was inevitable because the CG was between two current B1G-W teams.
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Updated for 10/16 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
We are half way done and here are the remaining games:
- PSU vs IL on 10/23
- M vs NU on 10/23
- UMD at MN on 10/23
- RU at IL on 10/30
- tOSU at UNL on 11/6
- MSU at PU on 11/6
- UW at RU on 11/6
- tOSU vs PU on 11/13
- IU vs MN on 11/20
- IU at PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
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New Projections suggest the East with 12-9 advantage before the CCG. 13-9 East after the CCG.
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Updated for 10/23 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
- IL won at PSU, 7-5 B1G-E
- M won vs NU, 8-5 B1G-E
- MN won vs UMD, 8-6 B1G-E
We are now two-thirds of the way through the regular season games and here are the remaining games:
- RU at IL on 10/30
- tOSU at UNL on 11/6
- MSU at PU on 11/6
- UW at RU on 11/6
- tOSU vs PU on 11/13
- IU vs MN on 11/20
- IU at PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
Illinois' shocking upset in Happy Valley keeps this interesting. The B1G-W is now actually within two games and they are hosting #14 this weekend which could get it within one so long as IL doesn't suffer a hangover loss. We'll see.
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If you flip a coin 22 times, it's not unusual to see it come up 13-9.
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that's some tedious research on the coin flipping
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that's some tedious research on the coin flipping
He is retired, he has time to flip coins!
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Funny how things always seem to even out in the East-west race. New Projections suggest East will have a 11-10 advantage going into the CCG and 12-10 advantage after the CCG.
MD, Rut, Ind and PSU not representing the East as well as everybody thought they would.
Who would have thought before the season, if told PSU would go 1-2 against the West, that the 1 win would be against Wisconsin?
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Updated for 10/23 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
- IL won at PSU, 7-5 B1G-E
- M won vs NU, 8-5 B1G-E
- MN won vs UMD, 8-6 B1G-E
We are now two-thirds of the way through the regular season games and here are the remaining games:
- RU at IL on 10/30
- tOSU at UNL on 11/6
- MSU at PU on 11/6
- UW at RU on 11/6
- tOSU vs PU on 11/13
- IU vs MN on 11/20
- IU at PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
Illinois' shocking upset in Happy Valley keeps this interesting. The B1G-W is now actually within two games and they are hosting #14 this weekend which could get it within one so long as IL doesn't suffer a hangover loss. We'll see.
i have it 11-10 East after the 7 games
and history has it that the CCG that the East will win so ends 12-10still pretty close
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always pretty close
always won by the east
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Updated for 10/30 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
- IL won at PSU, 7-5 B1G-E
- M won vs NU, 8-5 B1G-E
- MN won vs UMD, 8-6 B1G-E
- RU won at IL, 9-6 B1G-E
We are now more than two-thirds of the way through the regular season games and here are the remaining games:
- tOSU at UNL on 11/6
- MSU at PU on 11/6
- UW at RU on 11/6
- tOSU vs PU on 11/13
- IU vs MN on 11/20
- IU at PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
We have an interesting weekend coming up in which the road team should be favored in all three games. It is also interesting because the B1G-E can clinch at least a tie with two wins and an outright win with a sweep (I'm not counting on it, just saying it could happen).
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Clearly the X factor is the pair of Spoilermaker opportunities coming up, in the form of textbook trap games.
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hah, the west is depending on Purdue and Minnesooota
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So East is up 10-8?
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So East is up 10-8?
Updated for 11/6 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
- IL won at PSU, 7-5 B1G-E
- M won vs NU, 8-5 B1G-E
- MN won vs UMD, 8-6 B1G-E
- RU won at IL, 9-6 B1G-E
- tOSU won at UNL, 10-6 B1G-E
- PU won vs MSU, 10-7 B1G-E
- UW won at RU, 10-8 B1G-E
We are now more than two-thirds of the way through the regular season games and here are the remaining games:
- tOSU vs PU on 11/13
- IU vs MN on 11/20
- IU at PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
So the East would clinch AT LEAST a tie with a Buckeye win in Columbus this weekend while the West would pull within one game with a Boilermaker win in Columbus which would frankly be astounding given how bad things looked for the West a few weeks ago.
The B1G-E most likely has two tOSU games and two IU games remaining which is interesting.
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After a lot of chaos early we probably will up with the same result we have every year.
The Big Ten East will end up winning 12-10 with the deciding game being the CCG where OSU beats Wisc.
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It really is amazing how even things have ended up after the way it started.
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Updated for 11/13 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
- IL won at PSU, 7-5 B1G-E
- M won vs NU, 8-5 B1G-E
- MN won vs UMD, 8-6 B1G-E
- RU won at IL, 9-6 B1G-E
- tOSU won at UNL, 10-6 B1G-E
- PU won vs MSU, 10-7 B1G-E
- UW won at RU, 10-8 B1G-E
- tOSU won vs PU, 11-8 B1G-E
Here are the remaining games:
- IU vs MN on 11/20
- IU at PU on 11/27
- B1GCG
The B1G-E has clinched at least a tie and will win outright if they win any of the three remaining games but with the way Indiana looked on Saturday against Rutgers . . .
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always pretty close
always won by the east
again
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Updated for 11/20 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
- IL won at PSU, 7-5 B1G-E
- M won vs NU, 8-5 B1G-E
- MN won vs UMD, 8-6 B1G-E
- RU won at IL, 9-6 B1G-E
- tOSU won at UNL, 10-6 B1G-E
- PU won vs MSU, 10-7 B1G-E
- UW won at RU, 10-8 B1G-E
- tOSU won vs PU, 11-8 B1G-E
- MN won at IU, 11-9 B1G-E
Here are the remaining games:
The B1G-E has clinched at least a tie and will win outright if they win any either of the two remaining games but with the way Indiana has looked lately . . .
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So a close record once again. You could say the East has been stronger at the top, but the West makes up for it with a better middle to bottom. As always, this is infinitely better than the Leaders - Legends mess.
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With Purdue beating Ind today, the East is now up 11-10 with CCG still to go. So once again the East- West race comes down to whoever wins the CCG.
So more of same. OSU will play Wisc in the CCG and OSU will win again.....Oh wait! Not so fast my friends!.
It will be Michigan and Iowa playing in the ccg this year! Say what? How did that happen? Well whatever, this time Mich will beat Iowa and the East will pull out a close 12-10 win once again.
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West has never won a CCG, don't blow it Michigan
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West has never won a CCG, don't blow it Michigan
Iowa allows the most sacks of any team in the B1G. Iowa ranks dead last in the B1G in sacks allowed. They've given up 31 sacks through 12 games.
If only Michigan had a pair of bad ass lethal pass rushers......
https://twitter.com/PFF_Anthony/status/1464691040959569922?s=20
https://twitter.com/PFNDraft/status/1464694531421573122?s=20
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West has never won a CCG, don't blow it Michigan
Harbaugh finally reaching the CCG and then losing to Kirk Ferentz and his offense cobbled together from duct tape and bailing wire would be the most @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) head explosion ever...
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Iowa allows the most sacks of any team in the B1G. Iowa ranks dead last in the B1G in sacks allowed. They've given up 31 sacks through 12 games.
If only Michigan had a pair of bad ass lethal pass rushers......
Iowa's offensive line improved a lot the past two games. I sat in the 2nd row end zone for the 11th game and remarked to my daughter, "This is the best O-Line play Iowa has had all season." Iowa actually moved the ball on the ground in Games 11 and 12. Granted, Game 11 was against Illinois. But, Nebraska had a better than usual defensive line this season.
This is relative because the first 10-games Iowa's O-Line was very bad. Iowa has a very good center (Tyler Linderbaum), and good left guard (Kyler Schott). Kyler Schott was injured early in the season and I believe he missed a game or two, and then played injured for a few games.
Improvements have been seen at left tackle, right guard, and to some degree at right tackle. It is not unusual for Iowa linemen to develop during the season, and this season they have been playing young people at 3 of the 5 positions. In Game 1 they played 10 O-Linemen as they tried to sort things out and find their way.
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Now I looked at your video, and that left offensive tackle position could be vulnerable for Iowa. Iowa has a better player (Jake Plumb, 6'7", 296 lbs. a junior) at left tackle than at right tackle. Hopefully, he ate well this Thanksgiving weekend. He is going to need to call up all his strength to block that monster.
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Harbaugh finally reaching the CCG and then losing to Kirk Ferentz and his offense cobbled together from duct tape and bailing wire would be the most @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) head explosion ever...
LMAO. You know me so well.....
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Now I looked at your video, and that left offensive tackle position could be vulnerable for Iowa. Iowa has a better player (Jake Plumb, 6'7", 296 lbs. a junior) at left tackle than at right tackle. Hopefully, he ate well this Thanksgiving weekend. He is going to need to call up all his strength to block that monster.
Michigan has two elite edge rushers. Hutchinson is the best defensive player in America imo, 13 sacks on the season, defends the run at as high of a level as he rushes the passer and has a motor that just doesn't quit. Ojabo is no slouch- has 11 sacks on the season and 6 FF's. This is the best pair of edge rushers I have ever seen at Michigan. Both these guys will be very high draft picks.
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Updated for 11/27 games:
- PSU won at UW, 1-0 B1G-E
- tOSU won at MN, 2-0 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs IU, 2-1 B1G-E
- MSU won vs UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
- MSU won at NU, 4-1 B1G-E
- UMD won at IL, 5-1 B1G-E
- Iowa won at UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
- M won at UW, 6-2 B1G-E
- Iowa won vs PSU, 6-3 B1G-E
- M won at UNL, 7-3 B1G-E
- NU won vs RU, 7-4 B1G-E
- IL won at PSU, 7-5 B1G-E
- M won vs NU, 8-5 B1G-E
- MN won vs UMD, 8-6 B1G-E
- RU won at IL, 9-6 B1G-E
- tOSU won at UNL, 10-6 B1G-E
- PU won vs MSU, 10-7 B1G-E
- UW won at RU, 10-8 B1G-E
- tOSU won vs PU, 11-8 B1G-E
- MN won at IU, 11-9 B1G-E
- PU won vs IU, 11-10 B1G-E
Here are the remaining games:
So as per usual the CG will be decisive. If Iowa wins, the B1G-E and B1G-W tie 11-11. If Michigan wins the B1G-E wins 12-10.