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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on May 27, 2021, 06:36:00 PM

Title: Better job?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 27, 2021, 06:36:00 PM
ESPNtheOcho is asking if OU or Texas is the better job.
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With all of the big-boy programs in fertile recruiting grounds or adjacent to them, aren't all the jobs the same?  You have every edge, all the dollars, etc.
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It makes me think that the best helmet program job has the least-psychotic fanbase.  Not just regular fandom, but like irrational insanity fans with influence.
This is why I think Texas is a much worse job than OU.  This isn't a case of belittling the pressure to win in Norman at all, but from afar, it seems to me that UTA has a bunch of big belt-buckle alums with endlessly deep pockets shaking hands and winking a lot behind the scenes.  If'n yer not winnin', yer outta here. 
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Florida has a pretty irrational fanbase.  Alabama.  I assume OSU and UM do, too.  Tennessee has a delusional fanbase.  I don't think anyone out west has anything close to what I'm describing here. 
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Are there other batspit crazy fanbases that make great jobs less so?  Above and beyond the 'normal' helmet program?
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 07:13:11 PM
The Ohio State fan base, the ones I've known, are pretty reasonable.  They dislike all things SEC, but I get that, it's not delusional.

Most successful programs have a fan base over the top, or under the bottom.  USC might be an exception to the extent they are still that.

I'd rather be at Texas I think, a 9-4 season would be taken as "pretty decent" for now, at OU it might get you fired if it happened again.

And of course 9-4 with a win in the RRR is different than 9-4 with a loss.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 10:55:06 PM
At Texas, getting your ass kicked regularly by OU gets you fired.

At OU, getting your ass kicked regularly by Texas gets you fired as well.  It just hasn't happened much in the past two decades.

People like to make out that there's some big difference between the two, and the "Big Hats with deep wallets" is certainly the story that the sports mediots love to sell.  But the only real difference, is that OU has been better than Texas for most of the past two decades. 

If Ohio State lost 7 or 8/10 to Michigan, would the coach survive?

If Florida lost 7 or 8/10 to Tennessee, would the coach survive?

If Alabama lost 7 or 8/10 to Auburn, would the coach survive?

Winning is the cure-all, and beating your rival is the curest-all.

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 12:11:42 AM
Richt was fired after averaging 9.4 wins a season because he didn't beat Florida consistently (and didn't win an NC).

Beating your rivals is indeed key.  The Texas coach has to beat OU 6 times out of 10, or so.  I think it's possible there, they can still recruit well.  But you can sign on when your main rival is in an upsurge and then you are pretty well hosed.  Auburn fired their coach for not beating Bama often enough with Bama in a near  historic run.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2021, 03:13:18 AM
Idk, David McWilliams got canned after beating OU 3 straight times.  He just stunk for a year and got fired, right after a SWC championship season.  
It's entirely possible Texas doesn't have braindead wealthy donors with 10-gallon hats and backroom handshakes....but I doubt it.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: ELA on May 28, 2021, 08:16:23 AM
Michigan is weird.  The fan base expectations doesn't necessarily line up with the boosters.  The big money cares more about access than winning.  That's why Harbaugh is still there, and why RR was hated.  Not because he didn't win enough (although that made it easier/quicker), but he cut off a lot of access to the wrong people.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 08:20:36 AM
That may be more commonplace than weird.  Perhaps mediocre coaches cling because they are good schoozers and good promisers.

I'd take Texas, expectations - for now - are lower.  There is no reason Texas can't be elite again that I can discern, unlike say USC or Tennessee or Michigan.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: GopherRock on May 28, 2021, 08:36:41 AM
Glen Mason lost 8 of 10 against Wisconsin and 6 of 10 against Iowa (with a whole bunch of no-shows in those losses), and many of you called us crazy for sacking him.

It's the same reason why I don't understand why Little Jimmy's seat isn't nuclear-fusion hot in AA. Sometime he's gotta beat Ohio State.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 08:42:34 AM
Idk, David McWilliams got canned after beating OU 3 straight times.  He just stunk for a year and got fired, right after a SWC championship season. 
It's entirely possible Texas doesn't have braindead wealthy donors with 10-gallon hats and backroom handshakes....but I doubt it.

David McWilliams 5 seasons at Texas:

7-5
4-7
5-6
10-2
5-6

Which helmet school would keep a coach with those records?

I'm not saying Texas doesn't have braindead wealthy donors, I'm just saying Texas isn't any different than the other helmets.

Honestly, most non-helmets fire a coach with that kind of record.


Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 08:58:05 AM
By comparison, here's what Florida recently did with Muschamp:


7-6
11-2
4-8
6-5 (fired before bowl game)

One really good season and three bad ones.  Looks basically the same as McWilliams at Texas.  So Florida's boosters must also be a bunch of braindead rich folks with... alligator skin boots I guess.

And I didn't say beating your rival but having a bad season made you impervious to getting fired at a helmet school,  I just said that getting whipped by your rival is a fast ticket to unemployment, even if you're turning in otherwise good seasons.  





Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: ELA on May 28, 2021, 08:59:11 AM
Glen Mason lost 8 of 10 against Wisconsin and 6 of 10 against Iowa (with a whole bunch of no-shows in those losses), and many of you called us crazy for sacking him.

It's the same reason why I don't understand why Little Jimmy's seat isn't nuclear-fusion hot in AA. Sometime he's gotta beat Ohio State.
Well, we were talking helmet schools here.  As an MSU student during the JLS years (03-06), I know we discussed how we would kill to be Minnesota.  Dantonio obviously greatly exceeded that, but I don't think he had to
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 09:07:52 AM
Fans can "justify" 9-4 IFF you beat your main rival, it's a solace obviously.  I'm not sure how long that lasts.  Hot seats get hot at major programs with 9-4 seasons.

Of course 10-20 years of doldrums tend to dampen expectations for a while also.

Imagine being a South Carolina fan, they are pretty rabid over there, they get into it, and they know they have little chance of beating their main rival any time soon.  At least Auburn pulls it off at times.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 09:10:50 AM
Alabama:

Shula:
4-9
6-6
10-2
6-6 (fired before bowl game)

Dubose:
4-7
7-5
10-3
3-8  (fired)

Looks to me like Texas does pretty much what every other helmet school does when a coach has a shitty record, even if there's one good season mixed in.

And, as CD pointed out about Richt, Texas also does what every other school does, when you can't beat your main rival even with GOOD seasons.


Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 09:16:17 AM
Maybe Harbaugh gets something of a pass because Ohio State is on a near historic "run", even for OSU.  I could see that, logically, if logic plays a role here, sort of like South Carolina's situation (they have a new coach of course).  I don't know if Texas thinks that way about OU.

Georgia Tech would upset UGA every so often, usually in Athens, to meet somewhat lower expectations there.  I think now they've sort of given up on that point.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 09:20:37 AM
Maybe Harbaugh gets something of a pass because Ohio State is on a near historic "run", even for OSU.  I could see that, logically, if logic plays a role here, sort of like South Carolina's situation (they have a new coach of course).  I don't know if Texas thinks that way about OU.

Georgia Tech would upset UGA every so often, usually in Athens, to meet somewhat lower expectations there.  I think now they've sort of given up on that point.
Harbaugh gets a pass because a) he took a pay cut, and b) there is nobody available who could do better right now.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 09:25:09 AM
Harbaugh gets a pass because a) he took a pay cut, and b) there is nobody available who could do better right now.
That's a relevant point.

I also think AAA's point is probably valid, that there's a disconnect between the BMDs at Michigan who like that he's one of them, and that they have access, versus fan expectations of winning a bunch of football games and beating their archrival.

.  
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2021, 09:39:14 AM
Glen Mason lost 8 of 10 against Wisconsin and 6 of 10 against Iowa (with a whole bunch of no-shows in those losses), and many of you called us crazy for sacking him.

It's the same reason why I don't understand why Little Jimmy's seat isn't nuclear-fusion hot in AA. Sometime he's gotta beat Ohio State.
Simple...

1951–1953Wes Fesler (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Fesler)310–13–4.444
1954–1971Murray Warmath (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray_Warmath)1887–78–7.526
1972–1978Cal Stoll (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cal_Stoll)739–39.500
1979–1983Joe Salem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Salem_(American_football))519–35–1.355
1984–1985Lou Holtz (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Holtz)210–12.455
1986–1991John Gutekunst (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gutekunst)629–36–2.448
1992–1996Jim Wacker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Wacker)516–39.291
1997–2006Glen Mason (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glen_Mason)1064–57.529
2007–2010Tim Brewster (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Brewster)415–30.333
2010Jeff Horton (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Horton)12–3.400
2011–2015Jerry Kill (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Kill)529–29.500
2015–2016Tracy Claeys (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracy_Claeys)211–8.579
2017–presentP. J. Fleck (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P._J._Fleck)323–15.605

From '79 to '96 the Gophers didn't have a single coach who finished at or above .500, and so firing Mason did seem crazy.

And what happened? From '07 through '15 you also didn't have a coach that finished over .500. 

Fans get a taste of a little success but then complain that the coach that gave them that success "can't take us to the next level". 

But they don't realize that the next level, at a school like Minnesota, is more likely to be .333 than .666. Next is not synonymous with higher.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 09:40:40 AM
Good comment, I think, ADs often fire a coach first it seems, and then look around for who they could hire, and even learn their first 5-6-7 choices are not available or interested (Tenn).

Who would you choose to replace Harbaugh right now?  You could find something like The Pirate or Huepel I suppose, if they are not entirely unique.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2021, 09:41:59 AM
Good comment, I think, ADs often fire a coach first it seems, and then look around for who they could hire, and even learn their first 5-6-7 choices are not available or interested (Tenn).

Who would you choose to replace Harbaugh right now?  You could find something like The Pirate or Huepel I suppose, if they are not entirely unique.
The Pirate is the type of coach that could bring national championships to Ann Arbor and not survive based on personality. 
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: MrNubbz on May 28, 2021, 10:09:02 AM
Richt was fired after averaging 9.4 wins a season because he didn't beat Florida consistently (and didn't win an NC).
Richt had Cooperitis - there I took the bait 😁
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: MrNubbz on May 28, 2021, 10:10:37 AM
The Pirate is the type of coach that could bring national championships to Ann Arbor and not survive based on personality.
I actually wanted him hired when Tressell was fired,he did alot with seemingly little.I remember asking the old big 12 board about him
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 10:29:16 AM
The Pirate definitely got a lot out of his players at Tech. I feared playing his teams every single year.

I don't feel like he did that so much as Wazzu but admittedly I don't follow PAC football all that closely.  His first year at MSU was rocky but that had to be a tough year for a brand new coach, with all the crazy COVID stuff stacked on top.  
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 10:33:31 AM
He's a bit like Johnson at GaTech, he got them as far as possible, I think, with a quirky offense.  When your talent base is limited, that is the route to take I think.

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 10:38:16 AM
OK, so I'm gonna ask.

If Jim Harbaugh can't win at Michigan, who could? Who would want to even try?
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 10:52:42 AM
With Ohio State recruiting at an elite level consistently, it would be tough.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2021, 11:02:38 AM
OK, so I'm gonna ask.

If Jim Harbaugh can't win at Michigan, who could? Who would want to even try?
With Ohio State recruiting at an elite level consistently, it would be tough.

Exactly. To be honest, nobody is saying Harbaugh can't "win" at Michigan. He has been winning at Michigan. But OSU has set the bar so high in the conference recruiting-wise that it has set a ceiling on Harbaugh's winning. 

It remains to be seen whether Day can continue what Urban built. We've all seen cases where the first year or two after a coach leaves, the understudy looks great, only to falter in years 3-4-5 as the upperclassmen who were groomed in the predecessor's system age out of the program. 

But as long as OSU remains OSU, it's going to take a miracle for Michigan to match them.

What it would take, to be honest, is a coach who is an elite recruiter. Not "good". Not "great". But literally one of the best recruiters in the history of the sport. Harbaugh isn't that.

Barring that, Michigan has to hope that Day falls on his face. 
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 11:07:51 AM
If Ohio State returns to being "just" Ohio State, UM should be able to upset them 3 times in 10.  Ohio State right now is closer to Bama and Clemson than OSU of yore.

And they still seem to be recruiting at the elite level, top five anyway, consistently.  Even a so so coach can produce great teams doing that.  
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Gigem on May 28, 2021, 11:17:53 AM
Mack had a pretty dismal record against OU as I recall and lasted quite a while.  I guess that MNC went a long ways towards that longevity.  

I think OU is a better job simply because they've had more success there overall.  
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 11:22:26 AM
If you were a good coach and willing to put in the effort, what is the top program you'd love to coach today (aside from yours)?

On the one hand, a Texas or USC would be fame and fortune, but pressure commensurate.  Or you could coach say K State for a mere $2 mil a year and have much less pressure.  Or say the Navy where you likely would not have kids misbehaving.

Stanford?  Northwestern?  Vandy?  Duke?  

The worst I think would be a place like South Carolina where the fan base is "unreasonable" (ha) and the potential very limited.

UNC could be an option, decent location, pretty good students in the main, reasonable expectations, overshadowed by another sport, 9-4 makes you a hero.

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 11:33:55 AM
If you were a good coach and willing to put in the effort, what is the top program you'd love to coach today (aside from yours)?


Florida.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 11:36:50 AM
Bama, Clemson, or Ohio St.

those 3 are recruiting better than the others and have more talent on the roster


talent trumps all
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 11:41:57 AM
Here’s a look at how the SEC teams (and Clemson) ranked in terms of the number of ESPN top 300 prospects projected on the 2021 roster.
1. Alabama (70)
2. Georgia  (61)


4. Clemson (53)
6. LSU (43)
7. Florida (42)
8 Texas A&M (39)
13. Auburn (35)



Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 11:48:32 AM
so, Ohio St is number 3?
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 11:52:32 AM
I'd like to see the full list.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2021, 11:54:28 AM
If Ohio State returns to being "just" Ohio State, UM should be able to upset them 3 times in 10.  Ohio State right now is closer to Bama and Clemson than OSU of yore.

And they still seem to be recruiting at the elite level, top five anyway, consistently.  Even a so so coach can produce great teams doing that. 
In all honesty, I think what OSU has accomplished over the past two decades is more impressive--but more fragile--than Alabama or Clemson.

OSU has sustained elite success across two consecutive [not counting interim] coaches. Bama and Clemson have one. Can you trust that Bama will still be Bama post-Saban, or that Clemson will still be Clemson post-Dabo? I think you *have* to expect that both programs will falter when they have to replace those coaches, although it's much more likely to happen at Bama because Dabo is young and probably not going anywhere unless he has NFL dreams.

That's why I am unsure what Day will end up doing. To have three coaches in a row pull that off would be insane. OSU had Tressel and then they brought in a sure-thing prospect in Meyer. Only sure-things aren't always as sure as you'd think, but in this case it was. Now they've got someone who has never had HC experience prior and threw him into one of the most scrutinized programs in the nation... Can he pull this off?

In my opinion the odds are against Day sustaining OSU at anywhere near the same level Tressel and Meyer performed.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 11:55:41 AM
perhaps Clemson doesn't agree totally with ESPN's ranking of prospects
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 12:47:48 PM
In all honesty, I think what OSU has accomplished over the past two decades is more impressive--but more fragile--than Alabama or Clemson.

OSU has sustained elite success across two consecutive [not counting interim] coaches. Bama and Clemson have one. Can you trust that Bama will still be Bama post-Saban, or that Clemson will still be Clemson post-Dabo? I think you *have* to expect that both programs will falter when they have to replace those coaches, although it's much more likely to happen at Bama because Dabo is young and probably not going anywhere unless he has NFL dreams.

That's why I am unsure what Day will end up doing. To have three coaches in a row pull that off would be insane. OSU had Tressel and then they brought in a sure-thing prospect in Meyer. Only sure-things aren't always as sure as you'd think, but in this case it was. Now they've got someone who has never had HC experience prior and threw him into one of the most scrutinized programs in the nation... Can he pull this off?

In my opinion the odds are against Day sustaining OSU at anywhere near the same level Tressel and Meyer performed.
Lloyd Carr was anything but a sure thing, but he's the only coach to win an NC at Michigan since leather helmets were a thing.

Then they made 3 splash hires in a row, and are still getting their asses kicked by Ohio State, and by others who used to not be able to do it (like my school).
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 12:53:18 PM
2020 College Football Team Talent Composite (247sports.com) (https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/)

This is full team talent level by 247, the usual suspects.

OSU is #3, Texas is #5, which surprised me, USC is at #10, which is pretty lofty too.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: bayareabadger on May 28, 2021, 12:57:55 PM
That may be more commonplace than weird.  Perhaps mediocre coaches cling because they are good schoozers and good promisers.

I'd take Texas, expectations - for now - are lower.  There is no reason Texas can't be elite again that I can discern, unlike say USC or Tennessee or Michigan.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t Texas‘s eliteness basically been tied to two coaches, one of whom was considered a perennial underachiever?

It’s weird because in theory Texas should be awesome, but exactly one coach in school history has got them to the level they expect. 
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 01:00:44 PM
One coach is more than many programs have had.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: bayareabadger on May 28, 2021, 01:20:47 PM
The Pirate is the type of coach that could bring national championships to Ann Arbor and not survive based on personality.
I kind of don't agree. Th Pirate is best served at an underdog. He has a habit of winning a few he shouldn't and losing some he should. That kinda flies at at outpost schools (maybe at MissSU), but not with the big boys. If he beats OSU a third of the time, but drops an IU or Purdue game every year, they'll be after him.

He reminds me of a passage from one of my favorite sports books, The Game. "there are good “good team” goalies and good “bad team” goalies—Gary Smith, Doug Favell, Denis Herron. The latter are spectacular, capable of making near-impossible saves that few others can make. They are essential for bad teams, winning them games they shouldn’t win, but they are goalies who need a second chance, who need the cushion of an occasional bad goal, knowing that they can seem to earn it back later with several inspired saves. On a good team, a goalie has few near-impossible saves to make, but the rest he must make, and playing in close and critical games as he does, he gets no second chance."

Leach teams are like bad team goalies. 
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2021, 01:26:39 PM
Maybe, but we've never seen what Leach can do at a team with elite talent. 


Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 01:37:49 PM
unfortunately, I got to see what Mike Riley could do with better talent and resources
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 01:41:41 PM
The Miss State offense have UGA's defense fits last year.  I had to admire the style of it.  Given a very accurate QB and some quick wide outs, I think they could score on just about anyone.

I think I'd defend it by having my three down DLs just occupy space and try to swat the ball while dropping 8 in short coverage.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 02:27:16 PM
The Miss State offense have UGA's defense fits last year.  I had to admire the style of it.  Given a very accurate QB and some quick wide outs, I think they could score on just about anyone.

I think I'd defend it by having my three down DLs just occupy space and try to swat the ball while dropping 8 in short coverage.
I think that in a couple of years, when the Pirate has recruited to his system, they're going to be a tough out for just about every team they play, except maybe Alabama based on sheer talent.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 02:52:08 PM
As noted,  they may well lose games they should win while doing the reverse also.  It's a neat offense, I think, but one can have a bad game with it.

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: bayareabadger on May 28, 2021, 03:55:58 PM
One coach is more than many programs have had.
This is true, but if you are in theory that level of program and all but a couple of coaches struggle to bring the floor up, perhaps there is some thing understated about the job that makes it harder than we think
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 04:01:16 PM
Maybe what makes it harder is expectations that are too lofty.  Even very good programs struggle to win NCs these days, Clemson and Bama have shown it can be done with remarkable regularity, but no one else has come close to that.  But Texas SHOULD be able to make a major bowl game most years and win 10+ games with few exceptions.

Texas SHOULD be in the playoff twice a decade, I'd think, at least, but one might say that for USC and Florida and Michigan  ...
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: bayareabadger on May 28, 2021, 04:08:03 PM
Maybe, but we've never seen what Leach can do at a team with elite talent.



That's true, and we likely never will.

But, we've seen him lose a lot with better teams. Pretty consistently. And that kind of thing matters less when you're the plucky underdog, but it matters a hell of a lot more when you're at a powerhouse.

(Tennessee could've settled this for all of us, but they decided to be dummies and hire Pruitt)
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2021, 05:38:51 PM
Even with 4 playoff teams per season, there's still not enough spots for every helmet program to get their 2-3 appearances per decade.  
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 05:44:02 PM
If we have say 8 Blue Bloods, obviously they could all participate in four years twice in theory.

If we have say 16 programs with realistic chances to make a playoff, it gets dicier obviously, but all 16 COULD do it in four years of course, in theory.

The problem of course is one can pencil in Clemson Bama Ohio State in most years and the other 11 are vying for slot 4 often as not.

As we have noted, ten years ago Clemson/Bama were not dominant, and they may not be in five more years.  Ohio State seems position to make the playoffs more than ha;f the time, it would appear.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: ELA on May 28, 2021, 05:58:29 PM
Even with 4 playoff teams per season, there's still not enough spots for every helmet program to get their 2-3 appearances per decade. 
I'm mobile, so I can't look it up. But without getting too deep into who should have gone, and just going with who the AP top four going into the bowls were. How many playoff appearances would each of the helmet schools have had in the seventies, which I think we all agree is the most helmety decade
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:07:38 PM
Of course, these rankings were prebowl for much of this period, I will include prebowl rankings when not:

1960 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 1Minnesota (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1960&teamid=1) (17.5)Big Ten8-1433.5DNP (Did not play)
2< 3Mississippi (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1960&teamid=55) (16)SEC (Southeastern)9-0-1411 
3< 2Iowa (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1960&teamid=61) (12.5)Big Ten8-1407.5 
4< 7Navy (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1960&teamid=33)Ind (Independent)8-1262 

Some heavy hitters in that group.

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:08:32 PM
1961 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 1Alabama (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1961&teamid=25) (26)SEC (Southeastern)10-0452W 34-0 N Auburn
2< 2Ohio State (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1961&teamid=31) (20)Big Ten8-0-1436 
3< 4Texas (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1961&teamid=66)Southwest9-1348 
4< 3LSU (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1961&teamid=13) (1)SEC (Southeastern)9-1335 

Heh, starts to look like today.

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:09:04 PM
1962 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 1USC (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1962&teamid=6) (42)AAWU (Athletic Association of Western Universities)10-0509W 25-0 H Notre Dame
2< 2Wisconsin (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1962&teamid=36) (5)Big Ten8-1428 
3< 3Mississippi (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1962&teamid=55) (2)SEC (Southeastern)9-0393 
4< 4Texas (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1962&teamid=66)Southwest9-0-1343 

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:09:33 PM
1963 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 1Texas (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1963&teamid=66) (34)Southwest10-0460DNP (Did not play)
2< 2Navy (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1963&teamid=33) (10)Ind (Independent)9-1418 
3< 3Illinois (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1963&teamid=74)Big Ten7-1-1361 
4< 4Pittsburgh (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1963&teamid=9) (5)Ind (Independent)9-1340 

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:10:09 PM
1964 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 2Alabama (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1964&teamid=25) (34.5)SEC (Southeastern)10-0515.5W 21-14 N Auburn
2< 3Arkansas (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1964&teamid=32) (11.5)Southwest10-0486.5 
3< 1Notre Dame (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1964&teamid=7) (6)Ind (Independent)9-1442L 20-17 A USC
4< 4Michigan (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1964&teamid=48) (3)Big Ten8-1400 

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:10:40 PM
1965 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 4Alabama (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1965&teamid=25) (37)SEC (Southeastern)9-1-1537W 39-28 N #3 Nebraska (Orange)
2< 1Michigan State (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1965&teamid=113) (18)Big Ten10-1479L 14-12 N #5 UCLA (Rose)
3< 2Arkansas (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1965&teamid=32) (1)Southwest10-1413 
4< 5UCLA (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1965&teamid=59) (1)AAWU (Athletic Association of Western Universities)8-2-1391 

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:11:18 PM
1966 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 1Notre Dame (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1966&teamid=7) (41)Ind (Independent)9-0-1506DNP (Did not play)
2< 2Michigan State (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1966&teamid=113) (8)Big Ten9-0-1471 
3< 3Alabama (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1966&teamid=25) (7)SEC (Southeastern)10-0428W 34-7 N #6 Nebraska (Sugar)
4< 4Georgia (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1966&teamid=73)SEC (Southeastern)9-1332 

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:12:03 PM
1967 Final AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 1USC (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1967&teamid=6) (36)AAWU (Athletic Association of Western Universities)9-1474DNP (Did not play)
2< 2Tennessee (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1967&teamid=28) (11)SEC (Southeastern)8-1436 
3< 5Oklahoma (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1967&teamid=50)Big 88-1311W 21-14 A Nebraska
4< NRIndiana (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1967&teamid=45)Big Ten9-1245W 19-14 H Purdue

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:12:39 PM
December 2, 1968 AP Football Poll

[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th][/th]
[th]k[/th]

1
< 1
Ohio State (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1968&teamid=31) (34)
Big Ten
9-0
770
DNP (Did not play)

2
< 2
USC (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1968&teamid=6) (2)
Pac-8
9-0-1
631


3
< 3
Penn State (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1968&teamid=68) (3)
Ind (Independent)
9-0
618


4
< 4
Georgia (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1968&teamid=73)
SEC (Southeastern)
8-0-2
528




Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:13:14 PM
December 8, 1969 AP Football Poll

[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Team (FPV)[/th]
[th]Conf[/th]
[th]Rec[/th]
[th]Pts[/th]
[th]Last Week[/th]
1< 1Texas (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1969&teamid=66) (22)Southwest10-0580W 15-14 A #2 Arkansas
2< 3Penn State (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1969&teamid=68) (5)Ind (Independent)10-0492 
3< 2Arkansas (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1969&teamid=32)Southwest9-1426L 15-14 H #1 Texas
4< 4Ohio State (http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/teams/by_season.cfm?seasonid=1969&teamid=31) (1)Big Ten8-1374 

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2021, 06:26:28 PM
I'm mobile, so I can't look it up. But without getting too deep into who should have gone, and just going with who the AP top four going into the bowls were. How many playoff appearances would each of the helmet schools have had in the seventies, which I think we all agree is the most helmety decade
Ha, I was just looking up stuff for the best non-NC thread, so I'll share here:
1970 - Texas, OSU, Nebraska, Tennessee
1971 - Nebraska, Alabama, OU, Michigan........I'm thinking a 4-team playoff helps out Bo Schembechler A LOT.  Let's see.
1972 - USC, OU, OSU, Alabama
1973 - Alabama, OU, ND, OSU
1974 - OU, Alabama, OSU, Michigan
1975 - OSU, A&M, OU, Alabama
1976 - Pitt, Michigan, USC, Maryland
1977 - Texas, OU, Alabama, Michigan
1978 - Penn St, Alabama, USC, OU
1979 - OSU, Alabama, USC, FSU
................................................. ............................
Wow, Alabama makes it 8 of the 10 years.  Jesus. 
The only out-of-place type teams were '75 A&M, '76 Maryland, and '79 FSU.  Pitt's '76 peak was a one-off and I don't know what tier they were back then, but they're considered one of the great individual teams.  But still, that's only 4 ouf of 40 that wasn't what we'd consider a helmet team.  Penn St may been a 'have-not' back then, but I wasn't born yet.
.
Helmets:
8 Alabama
7 OU
6 OSU
4 Michigan, USC
2 Nebraska, Texas
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2021, 06:29:05 PM
5th place teams:
OSU, Auburn, Penn St, Michigan, USC, Michigan, Georgia, ND*, Michigan, OU
.
*won NC
.
Wow, UM makes a few playoffs, but they'd have just missed out 3 times as well.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 06:29:36 PM
You formatted a lot better than I did,  thanks, and got the right decade also.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 29, 2021, 02:50:05 PM
The Pirate is the type of coach that could bring national championships to Ann Arbor and not survive based on personality.

Pelini is a great example of personality doing him in. Guy won a ton of games at the helm in Lincoln but year by year what fans were frustrated by was Pelini’s hot-headed, juvenile sideline antics and abrasive approach to media relations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ool4HGJqmWg
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: ALA2262 on May 29, 2021, 09:47:23 PM
If we have say 8 Blue Bloods, obviously they could all participate in four years twice in theory.

If we have say 16 programs with realistic chances to make a playoff, it gets dicier obviously, but all 16 COULD do it in four years of course, in theory.

The problem of course is one can pencil in Clemson Bama Ohio State in most years and the other 11 are vying for slot 4 often as not.

As we have noted, ten years ago Clemson/Bama were not dominant, and they may not be in five more years.  Ohio State seems position to make the playoffs more than ha;f the time, it would appear.
Ten years ago Bama won the first of two BTB NCs. And lost but the one game the year before in 2010 to $cam and NC Auburn. In fact every year since Saban was hired in 2007 the NC has been Alabama or a team that beat Alabama except in 2013 when Auburn lost on the last play of the NCG to FSU.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2021, 09:50:46 PM
Bama has been dominant since then, not so much Clemson.  I'm discussing who occupies the playoffs consistently and how that may change with some time.  It could be Bama/Ohio State over the next decade, perhaps.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2021, 10:51:34 PM
I don't think there are 8 blue bloods.  More precisely, there are more than 8 fanbases that would expect AT LEAST 2 playoff appearances per decade.
.
Alabama, Ohio St, now Clemson, ND, Florida, Georgia, Penn St, LSU, Michigan, Oregon?, USC, Texas, Oklahoma are definites on this.  Fans of Nebraska, Tennessee, Auburn, Washington, Miami, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M may have such high expectations, but not across the board.  
.
So that's at least 13, maybe a couple more, a couple less...but it's more than 8.  
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 05:51:46 AM
The list is qualitative, but I think of it as the Olde Masters in CFB who were gnarly for long periods perhaps long ago and still credible.  My own list is:

OSU  Texas  OU  USC  Michigan  Bama  Nebraska  (I know that is seven.)

For me, PSU and Tenn just miss the exalted list.  Of course, today several of them are languishing, giving rise to the question as to how long a team can languish, like Army, Ole Miss, Minny, before dropping out.  we each can have our own list of course.

I'd guess fans of the teams you listed OFTEN expect at least two playoff appearances a decade, if not more.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 05:54:35 AM
We obviously have programs also having incredible runs, FSU and Miami come to mind, and then a relative collapse for whatever reason.  Ohio State is by far I think the program with the fewest bad years.  I don't know if history will repeat or not.  Bama and Clemson could be one bad hire away from mediocrity just as FSU and Miami were.

Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2021, 09:34:00 AM
every program is one bad hire away from mediocrity
including Ohio State
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 10:30:02 AM
I don't know, depending.  I think Ohio State can withstand a mediocre hire for a while more than Bama or Clemson.

I'm not convinced Smart is an elite level coach.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2021, 10:46:31 AM
those elite programs can withstand it better than the others, but no program is bullet proof if a coach screws up the culture
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 10:54:07 AM
My premise is "mediocre hire", not a disaster.  Yes, a coach can screw up the culture quickly and fail to recruit and that would be that quickly.

I think it takes 4-5-6 "mediocre" hires to really trash an elite program, not trash maybe, but bring back to normalcy, 9-4 seasons.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2021, 10:59:53 AM
agreed
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 11:04:05 AM
Is Day an elite coach?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  A program like that is somewhat on autopilot.  They recruit at an elite level because elite athletes want to play for them, same as for Bama, and Clemson is close to that I think.

What about Texas?  It was on autopilot for a while perhaps but errors in guidance have started to pile up.

If you are a true five star player today, your aim is to make money on Sunday, and I suspect there are maybe ten programs you will seriously consider.  Alabama appears to be at the top of that list right now.  The correlation between number of five stars and playoff appearances is pretty gnarly.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: ALA2262 on May 30, 2021, 01:42:43 PM
We obviously have programs also having incredible runs, FSU and Miami come to mind, and then a relative collapse for whatever reason.  Ohio State is by far I think the program with the fewest bad years.  I don't know if history will repeat or not.  Bama and Clemson could be one bad hire away from mediocrity just as FSU and Miami were.


Even Mike Dubose and Mike Shula had 10 win seasons with Bama. You have to go all the way back to Whitworth in 1955-1957 to find complete mediocrity at Bama. Actually that was complete whatever is below mediocrity, or even lower. Bama couldn't score, much less win. Shutout eleven times in those three years. Have been shutout but eleven more times in the sixty three seasons since then.
Title: Re: Better job?
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 02:10:56 PM
I think I could win ten at Bama, for a few years, IFF I could hire decent assistants.  It is impressive how fast they recovered from the sanctions.