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The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on December 19, 2017, 01:55:59 PM

Title: ELA Big Ten Bowl Breakdown
Post by: ELA on December 19, 2017, 01:55:59 PM

PINSTRIPE BOWL

Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs. Boston College Eagles (7-5)

December 27 @ 5:15 - New York, NY - ESPN

If nothing else Iowa's 2017 campaign will be remembered for being the reason for the first ever Big Ten omission from the College Football Playoff.  Aside from that, not much memorable, good or bad.  Boston College is much better than they are getting credit for, particularly coming on as the season progressed.  After three straight lopsided losses followed a narrow escape against Northern Illinois to open, it sure didn't appear as though a return bowl trip was in the works.  The Eagles responded by winning 6 of 8, including wins over Louisville, Florida State and Virginia.  Boston College a couple years ago had the best adjusted defense in the nation, but lost every ACC game due to a historically anemic offense.  Steve Adazio has managed to balance that out quite a bit, in no small part due to perhaps a bit of revenge on Michigan for stealing the Defensive Coordinator from that #1 ranked defense.  After promising A.J. Dillon they had no plan for him at linebacker, that he was coming in as a running back, the top ranked prospect from Massachusetts decided to stay home, and boy has that been big.  Dillon led all ACC backs in conference play with 129 rushing yards per game, ranking second to Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor in the nation among freshman running backs, with 1,432 yards.  Unlike most freshmen, Dillon got better and stronger as the season progressed, going for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns over the first six games, and 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns over the final six games, with a 50+ yard run in four of those six.  Not great news for an Iowa defense which was not nearly as stout against the run as we've grown accustomed to by Ferentz teams.  Winning those first and really second down battles is where it will be for the Iowa defense, as the Eagles will force the run game.  Taking Georgia Tech's triple option attack out of the equation, nobody in the ACC ran the ball more than Boston College, at 47 attempts per game; and nobody completed fewer passes.  It's not just winning first down, 2nd and 10 is a running play for the Eagles too.  That kind of attack, all day long will start to wear down an Iowa defense which just can't make enough third down stops to prevent too many lengthy drives.

BOSTON COLLEGE 24, IOWA 23

FOSTER FARMS BOWL

Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5)

December 27 @ 8:30 - Santa Clara, CA - FOX

An under the radar bowl game that could be a lot of fun.  Nobody expected Brohm to get Purdue bowl eligible this quick.  A 4-8 season probably would have sufficed for turning things in the right direction, instead he was able to end Purdue's five year bowl drought, and only their third in a decade, by putting life back into a program for the first time since maybe 2004ish?  The bigger surprise might be that Purdue did it with a defense that ranked #4 in the Big Ten in points allowed.  They did miss the Big Ten's two most dynamic offenses, in Ohio State and Penn State, but they showed signs back on Labor Day weekend when they held defending Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson well in check.  Speaking of Heisman Trophy candidates, Rich Rod had one for a minute, then not so much.  Khalil Tate was a major recruit for the Wildcats, and surprised a lot of people when he picked them over USC, but he seemed like a perfect fit for what Rodriguez did at West Virginia with Pat White, and at Michigan with Denard Robinson.  The problem he ran into, which we saw all too often with RichRod quarterbacks once there was a book on them, was the inability to adapt once teams forced you to pass on them.  After taking over as starter in early October, Tate ran for 327, 230, 137, 146, 161 and 206, while only once completing more than 10 passes, as Arizona went 5-1, and he found himself as high as #3 in ESPN's polling of Heisman voters.  Then Oregon and Arizona said enough was enough, loaded the box and held him to 60 yards on under 3.0 ypc over those two games COMBINED.  He was more efficient than expected through the air against the Sun Devils, but not enough to get the W.  Purdue didn't see much like Tate since that opening loss to Louisville.  The only thing they saw resembling a mobile quarterback like that was Illinois' Cam Thomas, and they did hold him to his low output on the ground over his four starts, but he had his most successful passing day against a Purdue defense that took much the same stance as they likely will against Arizona.  The Boilermakers have to pick their poison here.  Daring Tate to beat them with his arm is a dangerous proposition for one of the worst pass defenses in the Big Ten.  They'll likely have to rely on the front four to do the job like they did against Jackson, but nobody, even USC, was able to stop Tate with that strategy.  The X factor is the improvement of Elijah Sindelar.  The offense got better once the quarterback rotation was removed, and now he got a whole set of bowl practices as the #1.  If Purdue pulls this out, it's because he grew by leaps and bounds with those reps.

ARIZONA 31, PURDUE 30

HOLIDAY BOWL

#16 Michigan State Spartans (9-3) vs. #18 Washington State Cougars (9-3)

December 28 @ 9:00 - San Diego, CA - FS1

Those going solely on rep played the Leach Offense vs. Dantonio Defense card in the leadup, but that's really not this Washington State team.  The Cougars showed bursts of being dynamic offensively, but were also not nearly consistent enough for a team with an established senior quarterback like Luke Falk.  And that was before his top two receivers were dismissed prior to the game.  That said, the Spartan secondary is still a long way away from reestablishing the No Fly Zone.  The teams that spread Michigan State out and threw on them did so successfully, both Clayton Thorson and Trace McSorley hitting the 400 yard mark.  The front four is doing a better than expected job of getting pressure without blitzing, which is helping cover up some mistakes on the back end, but the teams that get the ball out quickly, as the Cougars want to, have done so successfully.  Even without Martin and Johnson-Mack, Washington State still has a far deeper receiving group than Northwestern, and probably than Penn State as well.  For Michigan State, Brian Lewerke has to get back to the guy he was prior to the disaster in Columbus, when he was positioning himself for All-Big Ten honors.  Washington State has the best passing defense in the Pac 12, so to get there, L.J. Scott has to be effective, and give Lewerke the option to use play action.  It's not just through the air that Michigan State needs Lewerke, but on the ground.  After running the ball well in September, Lewerke went away from it, either by design, or by better patience in the pocket.  But after averaging 58 ypg on 6.8 ypc over the final two games, maybe he's figured out a balance.  If he can force the Cougars defense to spy him, that should help open things up across the middle.  Speaking of that spy role, Washington State will be without their best defender, Hercules Mata'afa, for the first half, following a targeting ejection in the second half of the Apple Cup.  If the Spartans can't establish a ground game in the first half, with him out, it will probably be game over.  On paper, I think Washington State was better, but you mix in the disastrous Apple Cup performance, then the controversy over the dismissal of the top two receivers, Mike Leach seemingly all set to take the Tennessee job until the rug was pulled out from under him, and their defensive coordinator Alex Grinch looking likely to be willing to take a demotion to leave for Ohio State, and the bowl off time has not been kind to Washington State.  We saw Florida State and Texas respond positively to a negative off period, so it's certainly possible, but Washington State seems to have already put 2017 in their rear view mirror.

MICHIGAN STATE 24, WASHINGTON STATE 23

MUSIC CITY BOWL

#21 Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5)

December 29 @ 4:30 - Nashville, TN - ESPN

This is a matchup of teams on very different trajectories.  Kentucky opened 5-1, with a lone loss being a 1 point loss to a Florida team that we still didn't fully comprehend how bad they were.  But the schedule toughened up, and Kentucky lost 4 of their final 6, 3 in blowout fashion, with the two wins coming over bottom feeders Tennessee and Vanderbilt.  Northwestern started 2-3, with 2 of the losses by blowout, and needing a late comeback to beat a bad Nevada team.  As Pat Fitzgerald teams generally do though, they turned it around with a 7 game winning streak to finish.  Granted only 3 of their final 7 Big Ten opponents were bowl eligible, only Michigan State was ranked, and three straight wins came in overtime, but considering where they started, the change was noticeable.  If nothing else, in his final game we need to fully appreciate just how good and how consistent Justin Jackson has been.  He is already Northwestern's all time leader in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, he will finish the Music City Bowl (unless Kentucky holds him under 17 yards) as the Big Ten's 3rd all-time leading rusher, and is behind only Ron Dayne in scrimmage yards in conference history.  In the final two games of the season, Kentucky surrendered 364 yards per game on the ground.  Uh oh.  The fortunate thing for Kentucky is that as good as Clayton Thorson has been, he does not stretch the field.  So expect Kentucky to bring eight and sometimes nine men into the box, without fearing that they are surrendering too much in pass defense.  Something they were unable to do against Louisville.  Kentucky isn't overly interested in passing the ball themselves, preferring to feed Benny Snell early and often.  That's simply not a recipe for beating a Northwestern team, which allowed under 3.0 ypc in Big Ten play (only Wisconsin and Ohio State were better), but allowed a Big Ten worst 246 ypg through the air.  Part of the issue there was teams throwing on them often, a Big Ten leading 36.7 opponents passing attempts per game.  If Kentucky gets within 10 of that, it's probably a bad sign.  Bennie Snell finished 2nd in the SEC with 1,318 rushing yards, and even in a 27 point season ending loss to Louisville, got 29 carries, and put up over 200 yards.  If Northwestern can get up early, it could get ugly.  If Kentucky can keep it close, and keep Snell relevant, he is a big play waiting to happen.

NORTHWESTERN 33, KENTUCKY 21

OUTBACK BOWL

Michigan Wolverines (8-4) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4)

New Years Day @ NOON - Tampa, FL - espn2

I don't anyone expected a 4 loss UM team to be playing in the Outback Bowl in Year 3 of the Harbaugh era, but with a good win, and a strong performance from Peters, Michigan fans will enter the offseason feeling good about their quarterback situation for maybe the first time since 2012, when they expected Devin Gardner would take a step forward.  For South Carolina, it's nearly the exact opposite.  Going into the season they were among the contenders for worst team in the SEC, so making any bowl, let alone a New Years Day Bowl, is a massive surprise in Year 2 under Muschamp.  Look a little closer and there are a lot of smoke and mirrors behind that 8-4 season though.  Their last win over a bowl team was on September 23, against Louisiana Tech.  S&P+ ranks them #66 overall, a couple spots ahead of New Mexico State, but slightly behind UAB.  Without Deebo Samuel, it's tough to see the Gamecocks finding ways to stretch the Wolverines' defense out, and they aren't winning a fight in a phone booth against them.  I think what everyone is watching for is Brandon Peters.  He looked good enough once given the reins of the offense...against Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland, when they could get away with just handing the ball off, and relying on a limited passing offense.  Then just when it was time to see if he could shoulder more of the load, he got hurt.  South Carolina ain't Wisconsin or Ohio State, but they sure ain't Rutgers, Minnesota or Maryland either.  I think we see with 5 weeks to prepare, Harbaugh opens up more of the playbook than we've seen Peters run to date.  He'll make a mistake or two, maybe a costly turnover, but I expect him to largely handle it.

MICHIGAN 24, SOUTH CAROLINA 20

COTTON BOWL

#5 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) vs. #8 USC Trojans (11-2)

December 29 @ 8:30 - Arlington, TX - ESPN

They played a Rose Bowl in Durham once, so as far as playing Rose Bowls off site, you could do worse than Arlington.  These were two teams that entered the season with College Football Playoff aspirations, and while both got conference titles, multiple losses prevented them for playing for a bigger prize.  To me, this is easily the best non-CFP bowl game though, and hopefully the teams don't carry any sort of disappointment onto the field.  The biggest thing that has changed since these teams last played though, is conference perception.  The Big Ten is off to a 3-0 start in the bowl games, with a pair of wins over Pac 12 teams, both played out in the middle of Pac 12 territory, where the Big Ten has traditionally struggled.  Both teams are oozing with offensive weapons, albeit with very different styles, so this one looks to come down to which defense can at least contain the opposition.  Shutting either of these offenses down can be nearly impossible at times, so the goal is to bend but don't break.  Hold you opponent to field goals, and force turnovers.  I can't see either punter being overly active.  That may be easier said than done for the Buckeyes, who have faced two elite (or borderline elite) quarterbacks this year, in Baker Mayfield and Trace McSorley, and both put up big scores in the Horseshoe.  The Buckeyes better do a lot better against Darnold, who is easily the best NFL prospect of the three.  Offensively, J.T. Barrett could use a statement performance to go out on.  Remember he wasn't a part of the national championship run in 2014, and laid a total egg in their Fiesta Bowl loss to Clemson a year ago.  Justified or not, a big part of his legacy is a guy who put up monster numbers against overwhelmed rosters, but was lacking in big game performances.  I think he buries that narrative in this one.

OHIO STATE 35, USC 26

FIESTA BOWL

#9 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) vs. #11 Washington Huskies (10-2)

December 30 @ 4:00 - Glendale, AZ - ESPN

A year ago Penn State griped about Ohio State getting into the College Football Playoff over them, but really, this is where their gripe should have been.  The committee showed last year they'll take a 1 loss conference champ, even with a terrible resume, over a two loss team that played a difficult schedule, a stance they doubled down on this year with Alabama.  Penn State might be the most hard luck 2 loss team in the country.  Their two losses were to top 15 teams, on the road, on the final possession.  They don't really have an impressive win either though, their best win being over a Northwestern team early, before they got going.  Washington started the year off where they left off, but the injuries and suspensions really started to mount late, although they did pull a surprising blowout of Washington State in the Apple Cup.  Part of the problem was Jake Browning wasn't able to lift up his depleted receiving corps, his touchdown total dropping from 43 to 18, although they didn't throw the ball quite as much either.  The onus will be on the Washington defense, which led the Pac 12 in both scoring defense and total defense.  In the second half, teams loaded up on Saquon Barkley, and forced Trace McSorley to beat them.  While it did knock Barkley from Heisman frontrunner, to not even getting a NYC invite, it didn't really slow down the Nittany Lion offense, as McSorley more than compensated.  Washington has struggled to protect Browning, and in turn the Huskies haven't gotten the time to hit the big plays they feasted on a year ago.  This Penn State pass rush can be very nasty at times.  I think Penn State will struggle more offensively than they are accustomed to, but that pass rush should be in the backfield all day against a Husky offensive line that has really struggled to give Browning time since Adams went out with an injury.

PENN STATE 28, WASHINGTON 24

ORANGE BOWL

#6 Wisconsin Badgers (12-1) vs. #10 Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

December 30 @ 8:00 - Miami, FL - ESPN

If the Cotton Bowl is the de facto Rose Bowl, between conference champs, who did too much early damage to their resume to earn a College Football Playoff bid, this isn't far behind, but with teams that had the resume in place going into December, but couldn't close the deal.  For Miami, we really don't know what to expect.  Wisconsin just lost once, and it was close, to a very good Ohio State team.  Miami closed on a two game losing streak, and it was to a 4-7 Pitt team, before getting decimated by Clemson.  The Canes do have home field advantage, but with a big event fan base only, it's unclear what kind of South Beach crowd will turn out.  Miami lives on defense, but their run D has been up and down all season.  They surrendered over 200 rushing yards in three straight games at one point, but also held Clemson to only 77 on the ground in the ACC Championship Game.  Taylor will get his yards, and Fumagalli knows how to move the sticks, but Alex Hornibrook turns the ball over more than any Big Ten quarterback, and the most overdone story of this season is how the Miami defense feasts on turnovers.  But absent an absolute turnover fest, it's tough to imagine Miami generating much offensively, they barely ran the ball at all in conference play, without Mark Walton.  They flirted with disaster all season, before finally putting 120 minutes together in those back to back wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.  Wisconsin wasn't just good defensively, they were dominant, and got better as the season progressed.

WISCONSIN 24, MIAMI 20

Title: Re: ELA Big Ten Bowl Breakdown
Post by: ELA on December 28, 2017, 10:28:31 AM

Holiday and Music City Bowls added

Title: Re: ELA Big Ten Bowl Breakdown
Post by: ELA on December 29, 2017, 02:58:17 PM

Cotton Bowl added

Title: Re: ELA Big Ten Bowl Breakdown
Post by: ELA on December 29, 2017, 03:44:10 PM

Fiesta Bowl added

Title: Re: ELA Big Ten Bowl Breakdown
Post by: ELA on December 30, 2017, 03:08:37 PM

Orange Bowl added

Title: Re: ELA Big Ten Bowl Breakdown
Post by: ELA on January 01, 2018, 09:50:05 AM

Outback added