CFB51 College Football Fan Community

The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on December 15, 2020, 10:10:27 PM

Title: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 15, 2020, 10:10:27 PM
So the second-to-last CFP rankings are out:


I think the fact that Florida is still ahead of Cincy indicates that the Bearcats are completely out of it.  Even in their theoretical best-case-scenario I just can't see them moving up five spots.  

I am also coming around to the point of view that unless Notre Dame just gets absolutely clobbered in the ACCCG, they are in.  I also have been of the opinion that Bama would be in even with an SECCG loss so long as they got there undefeated and now that has happened.  Thus, I think that Bama and Notre Dame have effectively already clinched.  

The next two teams to discuss are Clemson and tOSU.  I think that both would be out with a loss, but they control their own destiny as they would be in with wins.  

IMHO, everybody behind there NEEDS at least one or preferably both of Clemson and tOSU to lose their respective CG's.  

Assuming that one of tOSU/Clemson loses I am starting to think that the next team in, rather than aTm is quite possibly the B12CG winner.  The ISU/OU winner will pick up a quality win and a P5 league title while aTm will play TN.  

If both tOSU and Clemson lose then I'm thinking the likely outcome is Bama, ND, B12CG winner, and then aTm (assuming they win).  If tOSU, Clemson, and aTm all lose then replace aTm with maybe Georgia.  I don't know.  UGA has two losses and no hardware so that might be a reach.  Maybe Northwestern or USC.  

Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:20:23 PM
Wow.
With a OU victory and a blowout ND win, Florida is in with a win over Bama.  That's....something. 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 15, 2020, 10:31:09 PM
So the second-to-last CFP rankings are out:

  • 10-0 Bama vs #7 UF in SECCG
  • 10-0 Notre Dame vs #3 Clemson in ACCCG
  • 9-1 Clemson vs #2 ND in ACCCG
  • 5-0 Ohio State vs #14 NU in B1GCG
  • 7-1 aTm @ nr TN
  • 8-2 ISU vs #10 OU in B12CG
  • 8-2 UF vs #1 Bama in SECCG
  • 7-2 UGA, regular season complete
  • 8-0 Cincy, vs #23 Tulsa in AACCG
  • 7-2 Oklahoma vs #6 ISU in B12CG
  • 6-1 Indiana, regular season complete
  • 11-0 Coastal Carolina vs #19 LA in Sun Belt CG
  • 5-0 USC vs nr Oregon in P12CG
  • 6-1 Northwestern vs #4 tOSU in B1GCG
  • 8-3 North Carolina, regular season complete
  • 6-2 Iowa, regular season complete
  • 10-1 BYU, regular season complete
  • 8-2 Miami, regular season complete
  • 9-1 Louisiana at #12 CCU in SBCG
  • 6-3 Texas, regular season complete
  • 7-3 Oklahoma State, regular season complete
  • 8-3 NCST, regular season complete
  • 6-1 Tulsa at #9 Cincy in AACCG
  • 6-0 San Jose State vs nr Boise St in MWCCG
  • 4-1 Colorado, regular season complete

I think the fact that Florida is still ahead of Cincy indicates that the Bearcats are completely out of it.  Even in their theoretical best-case-scenario I just can't see them moving up five spots. 

I am also coming around to the point of view that unless Notre Dame just gets absolutely clobbered in the ACCCG, they are in.  I also have been of the opinion that Bama would be in even with an SECCG loss so long as they got there undefeated and now that has happened.  Thus, I think that Bama and Notre Dame have effectively already clinched. 

The next two teams to discuss are Clemson and tOSU.  I think that both would be out with a loss, but they control their own destiny as they would be in with wins. 

IMHO, everybody behind there NEEDS at least one or preferably both of Clemson and tOSU to lose their respective CG's. 

Assuming that one of tOSU/Clemson loses I am starting to think that the next team in, rather than aTm is quite possibly the B12CG winner.  The ISU/OU winner will pick up a quality win and a P5 league title while aTm will play TN. 

If both tOSU and Clemson lose then I'm thinking the likely outcome is Bama, ND, B12CG winner, and then aTm (assuming they win).  If tOSU, Clemson, and aTm all lose then replace aTm with maybe Georgia.  I don't know.  UGA has two losses and no hardware so that might be a reach.  Maybe Northwestern or USC. 


If Clemson loses in a close one, the commitee will keep them in.  Guaranteed. 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: ELA on December 15, 2020, 10:57:54 PM
They weren't about to jam a college football season in during a pandemic just to wind up with Cincinnati in the playoff
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: bayareabadger on December 15, 2020, 11:18:12 PM
Auguring these results is weird because we know they are without meaning. 

Next week, the committee will look at a mess of results and pick a playoff field. What today's rankings look like, they do not matter. How they explained this week or last week's rankings, the also do not matter. 

This is dumb TV product.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Hawkinole on December 16, 2020, 01:17:48 AM
Auguring these results is weird because we know they are without meaning.

Next week, the committee will look at a mess of results and pick a playoff field. What today's rankings look like, they do not matter. 
Actually these do matter. For example, Iowa State has a narrow tippy toe path. It requires A & M to lose to Tennesse, Ohio State to lose to Northwestern, and maybe Florida to lose to Alabama. But there is logic to these rankings. But the paths outside the Top 6 are beyond extremely narrow.
To think ISU which has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 conference title has any path going into the last game of the season is almost beyond my belief. 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 07:52:13 AM
Whoever slots 4 is going to get pounded.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2020, 08:50:24 AM
not with certainty

Bama can always overlook someone and Bama's opponent could play out there arse and/or get some breaks
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2020, 08:50:57 AM
Wow.
With a OU victory and a blowout ND win, Florida is in with a win over Bama.  That's....something. 
ya sure A&M wouldn't get that slot?
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2020, 08:54:22 AM
Whoever slots 4 is going to get pounded.
I'm not so sure.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2020, 08:57:38 AM
it's 2020

and whoever is at #4 is a pretty solid squad
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 09:25:19 AM
ya sure A&M wouldn't get that slot?
Champs vs non-champs.  Beat the team that beat A&M.  Yes, I'm sure.
Again, not what I think SHOULD happen, but what WOULD.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2020, 09:30:53 AM
they talked about the possibility of A&M being 4th with a rematch with Bama

not desirable

 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 09:34:07 AM
ya sure A&M wouldn't get that slot?
That would get interesting.  So the hypothetical is:

Quality wins:
I see UF with a MAJOR advantage in quality wins.  

Loss(es):

H2H:

League titles:

If I were voting, I would see this as a REALLY close call.  UF has advantages in quality wins and league titles while aTm has advantages in losses and H2H.  

Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 09:47:56 AM
The wiseguys out in Vegas think most of the P5 CG's will not be close:


Say what you want about those guys, but they didn't build those big beautiful casinos by losing money.  They tend to have a pretty good idea on these things.  

I know @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group!  

Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: bayareabadger on December 16, 2020, 10:01:07 AM
Actually these do matter. For example, Iowa State has a narrow tippy toe path. It requires A & M to lose to Tennesse, Ohio State to lose to Northwestern, and maybe Florida to lose to Alabama. But there is logic to these rankings. But the paths outside the Top 6 are beyond extremely narrow.
To think ISU which has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 conference title has any path going into the last game of the season is almost beyond my belief.
So the logic you're talking about seems to be poll logic. Right? Win move up some, lose move down some, can't jump a team that wins, etc. And no where are there rules that poll logic applies. All they do is rank them each week. And then they go out and say some burbling to justify. 

If they decide next week that Coastal is the bees knees, the rest doesn't matter. 

Now you're correct about the narrow path, but it doesn't have much to do with who is No. 6 or whatnot. ISU has two losses, and they don't like losses. Plus they don't play in a conference that gets benefit of the doubt and are a brand that doesn't either. They benefit from the fact that mid-majors are all out before the first kickoff, and likely from the fact two conferences didn't play enough to get in with one loss or even zero. But all that is true regardless of if they're 7 or 6 or A&M is 5. 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2020, 10:37:24 AM
The wiseguys out in Vegas think most of the P5 CG's will not be close:

  • tOSU -20.5 vs NU in the B1GCG in Indy:  O/U is 57.5 so they are predicting something like 39-18 tOSU. 
  • Bama -17 vs UF in the SECCG in Atlanta:  O/U is 74.5 (Twelving) so they are predicting something like 46-29 Bama. 
  • Clemson -10.5 vs ND in the ACCCG in Charlotte:  O/U is 60 so they are predicting something like 35-25 Clemson. 
  • Oklahoma -5.5 vs ISU in the B12CG in Arlington:  O/U is 58 so they are predicting something like 32-26 OU. 
  • USC -3.0 vs Oregon in the P12CG in Los Angeles:  O/U is 62.5 so they are predicting something like 33-30 USC. 

Say what you want about those guys, but they didn't build those big beautiful casinos by losing money.  They tend to have a pretty good idea on these things. 

I know @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group! 



Ha!  Sadly I suspect they'll hit the overs when OU blows them out something like 48-31.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 10:48:37 AM
Vegas doesn't care who wins, generally.  They take their vig and if they balance the incoming bets properly, they win in every case.  They do a pretty good job setting the initial line because they understand who is betting with big dollars.  If you see a line shift over the week, it's a sign they missed their mark and are covering.

Bama will be a 20+ favorite over whoever is #4.  A 20+ dog wins about 5% of the time, or less.  If we get Clemson-Ohio State, the line will be inside 5 I think.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 10:49:38 AM
The wiseguys out in Vegas think most of the P5 CG's will not be close:

  • tOSU -20.5 vs NU in the B1GCG in Indy:  O/U is 57.5 so they are predicting something like 39-18 tOSU. 
  • Bama -17 vs UF in the SECCG in Atlanta:  O/U is 74.5 (Twelving) so they are predicting something like 46-29 Bama. 
  • Clemson -10.5 vs ND in the ACCCG in Charlotte:  O/U is 60 so they are predicting something like 35-25 Clemson. 
  • Oklahoma -5.5 vs ISU in the B12CG in Arlington:  O/U is 58 so they are predicting something like 32-26 OU. 
  • USC -3.0 vs Oregon in the P12CG in Los Angeles:  O/U is 62.5 so they are predicting something like 33-30 USC. 

Say what you want about those guys, but they didn't build those big beautiful casinos by losing money.  They tend to have a pretty good idea on these things. 

I know @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group! 


True, true, but....you don't make much money betting 5-game parlays, either.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 10:50:26 AM
I hope we end up with Alabama vs Ohio State for the NC.  The best 2 teams.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 11:16:09 AM
True, true, but....you don't make much money betting 5-game parlays, either.
No, but that is statistics not lines.  If all of their lines are dead on then you have a 50/50 chance betting any of the five games.  Ie:
So yeah, not very darn likely that your chosen team in each of the five games will COVER.  However, covering and winning are two different things.  Part of it is that the actual teams involved don't care about covering.  Suppose that tOSU (20.5 favorite) and Bama (17 favorite) are leading their games by 21 and 20 respectively late in the 4th quarter.  They then put in backup defenders to get them some reps figuring they might need those guys in the semi-final or NC and NU/UF each score late TD's such that tOSU wins by 14 and Bama wins by 13.  Are tOSU and Bama really one 13-14 points better than NU/UF?  NO!  They are at least ~20 points better and if they had left their starters in and kept their foot on the gas they would have undoubtedly won by at least 20 points.  

This (link (https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/)) is just a random site I found on a quick search but it gives a % chance of the favorite or underdog winning based on the spread for CFB.  According to this those chances for the favorites are:

Each of those favorites has a pretty good chance of winning but all of them . . . not so much.  Even assuming that tOSU has a 100% chance of winning (they don't), the chance of all five winning (if I have my stats right) is:  27.08% (.914*.793*.651*.574).  


Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 11:24:28 AM
There is a very good historical basis for those winning percentages based on spread.  Different sites give slightly different percentages, I don't know why.

I recall a 7 point dog wins 1 time in 3 according to one site.  That really is pretty often.  Once you get past 14 on the spread, the "odds" go down hard.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 16, 2020, 11:38:41 AM
No, but that is statistics not lines.  If all of their lines are dead on then you have a 50/50 chance betting any of the five games.  Ie:
  • If you bet the B1GCG (either way) you have a 50/50 chance of winning. 
  • Parlay in the SECCG (either way) and your chance drops to 25%
  • Parlay in the ACCCG (either way) and your chance drops to 12.5%
  • Parlay in the B12CG (either way) and your chance drops to 6.25%
  • Parlay in the P12CG (either way) and your chance drops to 3.125%
So yeah, not very darn likely that your chosen team in each of the five games will COVER.  However, covering and winning are two different things.  Part of it is that the actual teams involved don't care about covering.  Suppose that tOSU (20.5 favorite) and Bama (17 favorite) are leading their games by 21 and 20 respectively late in the 4th quarter.  They then put in backup defenders to get them some reps figuring they might need those guys in the semi-final or NC and NU/UF each score late TD's such that tOSU wins by 14 and Bama wins by 13.  Are tOSU and Bama really one 13-14 points better than NU/UF?  NO!  They are at least ~20 points better and if they had left their starters in and kept their foot on the gas they would have undoubtedly won by at least 20 points. 

This (link (https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/)) is just a random site I found on a quick search but it gives a % chance of the favorite or underdog winning based on the spread for CFB.  According to this those chances for the favorites are:
  • Ohio State (-20.5) has a nearly 100% chance of beating NU (site says 100% but that is obviously not correct)
  • Bama (-17) has a 91.4% chance of beating UF
  • Clemson (-10.5) has a 79.3% chance of beating ND
  • Oklahoma (-5.5) has a 65.1% chance of beating ISU
  • USC (-3) has a 57.4% chance of beating Oregon. 

Each of those favorites has a pretty good chance of winning but all of them . . . not so much.  Even assuming that tOSU has a 100% chance of winning (they don't), the chance of all five winning (if I have my stats right) is:  27.08% (.914*.793*.651*.574). 



Word spreading they will be without a big name on offense.  Likely Fields, Olave or Wilson I would guess. NW sound on defense.  I expect a dogfight.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 11:41:44 AM

Each of those favorites has a pretty good chance of winning but all of them . . . not so much.  Even assuming that tOSU has a 100% chance of winning (they don't), the chance of all five winning (if I have my stats right) is:  27.08% (.914*.793*.651*.574). 



Right.  Thanks for the work put in.  So while ALL are highly unlikely to cover, ALL are still quite unlikely to win.  
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: rolltidefan on December 17, 2020, 10:01:37 AM


I know @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group! 


that's because the bigxii doesn't play offense, pawl...

Ha!  Sadly I suspect they'll hit the overs when OU blows them out something like 48-31.

that's because the bigxii doesn't play defense, pawl...
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 17, 2020, 12:31:27 PM
Unlikely possibilities:

Bama loses, they are still in.  We think.

Ohio State loses, they are probably out, I think.

ND beats Clemson (upset technically), ND is in, Clemson is out.

Florida wins, SEC champs, two losses, hum.

A&M loses to Tennessee, they are out.

Iowa State loses.

Cincy loses.

USC loses.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MrNubbz on December 17, 2020, 12:45:24 PM
Bama will be a 20+ favorite over whoever is #4.  A 20+ dog wins about 5% of the time, or less. 
20+ pt dog wins 5% of the time.I'd be willing to bet they cover the spread a lot more than that
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 17, 2020, 12:48:35 PM
20+ pt dog wins 5% of the time.I'd be willing to bet they cover the spread a lot more than that
Of course, they'd cover somewhere near half the time.  
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 17, 2020, 01:09:58 PM
Florida could beat Bama by 50 and the Tide are still in the playoff.
And Florida would be in, because it would be a conference champ and because the Gators would be new blood.  I think they'd be looking to replace a 2-loss Clemson with someone...anyone!  
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: ELA on December 18, 2020, 06:42:24 PM
Brian Kelly saying ND might opt out of the CFP if families aren't invited?

HAHAHA, that is the most empty threat ever.

At least if he had threatened to kill a GA, people might take him seriously.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MaximumSam on December 18, 2020, 06:53:27 PM
Brian Kelly saying ND might opt out of the CFP if families aren't invited?

HAHAHA, that is the most empty threat ever.

At least if he had threatened to kill a GA, people might take him seriously.
Well, yes, it is an empty threat.  Though it is wrapped in the growing discontent with making teams go to the Rose Bowl, which I understand.  California has a lot of restrictions, isn't close to any team likely to be in the playoffs, and frankly, who cares about the stadium the game is played in this year anyway? 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 18, 2020, 07:51:40 PM
So, realistically, let's discuss mayhem:

Florida upsets Alabama 48-47, it could happen.

ND beats Clemson 35-21.

Nw upsets Ohio State in a turnover filled game 27-20.  I think this might be least possible.

Oklahoma beats ISU  38-34.

Tulsa beats UC 38-28.

Then somehow Notre Dame does opt out.  It could happen.  The playoff would be Bama-v- UGA and Florida -v- A&M.



Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 18, 2020, 08:20:48 PM
The least-likely outcome there is Florida beating Bama.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 18, 2020, 09:36:58 PM
Brian Kelly saying ND might opt out of the CFP if families aren't invited?

HAHAHA, that is the most empty threat ever.

At least if he had threatened to kill a GA, people might take him seriously.
I am no fan of Brian Kelly but on this issue I completely agree with him as does Dabo. 


https://apple.news/A_wNPkbtISvq9f0KwTQJJQA
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: ELA on December 18, 2020, 09:59:41 PM
I am no fan of Brian Kelly but on this issue I completely agree with him as does Dabo.


https://apple.news/A_wNPkbtISvq9f0KwTQJJQA
When Brian Kelly and Dabo are on the same side of an argument, you better RUN to the other side
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 18, 2020, 10:04:08 PM
When Brian Kelly and Dabo are on the same side of an argument, you better RUN to the other side
Normally, yeah. 

I don’t know how you can defend having a game in a venue where family members of the players are not allowed to attend, and any team that goes there is going to have to travel across the country. Especially given that any other venue they play in, the families would be allowed to attend. It’s actually ridiculous and outrageous at the same time.  

A few hundred people spread out in the venue that’s hold 100,000, wearing masks and staying socially distanced is a no brainer.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: ELA on December 18, 2020, 10:18:25 PM
You would think that after having an entire fake season, just for these three games at the end, featuring Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and the best power five team, they would have had this a little bit more ironed out
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 18, 2020, 10:26:04 PM
Yes. I think it is the California Governor’s latest restrictions which are making this challenging.   

If you had the opportunity to read that article what Kellie is saying is that he personally doesn’t think his players want to play across the country if their families can’t attend. He is saying that first they have to get to the playoffs but if they do his players have already been pretty vocal about what they’ve been through this year.

It probably is a hollow threat but I can certainly understand why a player would feel that way. Why can’t they just play in Indianapolis or the Cotton  Bowl or somewhere where families could attend.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 18, 2020, 11:24:34 PM
boo hoo, my mommy can't attend the game
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 18, 2020, 11:56:15 PM
boo hoo, my mommy can't attend the game
Nice.   Guessing you’ve never played organize sports and or you don’t have children
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: bayareabadger on December 19, 2020, 12:08:24 AM

Yes. I think it is the California Governor’s latest restrictions which are making this challenging. 

If you had the opportunity to read that article what Kellie is saying is that he personally doesn’t think his players want to play across the country if their families can’t attend. He is saying that first they have to get to the playoffs but if they do his players have already been pretty vocal about what they’ve been through this year.

It probably is a hollow threat but I can certainly understand why a player would feel that way. Why can’t they just play in Indianapolis or the Cotton  Bowl or somewhere where families could attend.
Because the world is hard and cold and all about brass tacks and money?

The family argument is ... I dunno, kinda silly. Like, I get that it's important to kids and parents. But this machine doesn't run on those sorts of things. There are probably some practical reasons to move it out of Ca. (a lot, actually), but the family reason isn't really one of them. 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 19, 2020, 07:00:23 AM
Because the world is hard and cold and all about brass tacks and money?

The family argument is ... I dunno, kinda silly. Like, I get that it's important to kids and parents. But this machine doesn't run on those sorts of things. There are probably some practical reasons to move it out of Ca. (a lot, actually), but the family reason isn't really one of them.
Except that it is, apparently for many of the players.  fans?  Of course not. Fans are clueless obviously.   
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MrNubbz on December 19, 2020, 07:06:58 AM
Normally, yeah.

I don’t know how you can defend having a game in a venue where family members of the players are not allowed to attend,
Be nice if the governor there followed his own advice - he should be in jail
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: bayareabadger on December 19, 2020, 08:02:42 AM
Except that it is, apparently for many of the players.  fans?  Of course not. Fans are clueless obviously. 
That a coach whines about something in a press conference and invokes his players as cover is not evidence of much to me.

I’m sure kids want to be burdened with less class or don’t want to be up at 5:30 or spend their summers tied to the town they live in so they can get yelled at by strength coaches to life weights four times a week. But that’s how this goes.

Shoot, some kids don’t have their parents at high school games in normal times because of jobs or other situations. It sucks. But life sometimes sucks. I don’t disagree with moving the game, but doing it just for moms and dads ain’t gonna happen. (There are probably stronger business reasons to move the games, and we will hopefully see those come to light)
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 19, 2020, 08:08:20 AM
That a coach whines about something in a press conference and invokes his players as cover is not evidence of much to me.

I’m sure kids want to be burdened with less class or don’t want to be up at 5:30 or spend their summers tied to the town they live in so they can get yelled at by strength coaches to life weights four times a week. But that’s how this goes.

Shoot, some kids don’t have their parents at high school games in normal times because of jobs or other situations. It sucks. But life sometimes sucks. I don’t disagree with moving the game, but doing it just for moms and dads ain’t gonna happen. (There are probably stronger business reasons to move the games, and we will hopefully see those come to light)
There there’s not a single good reason to keep it there outside of contracts etc. Otherwise all of the sites And bowls would have the same rules but there you need to be very “unique leader” in California. Please stop trying to justify it as if it makes sense or something. Pure stupidity
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: TyphonInc on December 19, 2020, 08:10:59 AM
Move the Game
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: bayareabadger on December 19, 2020, 08:18:23 AM
There there’s not a single good reason to keep it there outside of contracts etc. Otherwise all of the sites And bowls would have the same rules but there you need to be very “unique leader” in California. Please stop trying to justify it as if it makes sense or something. Pure stupidity
For the most part, this is correct. We agree! 

I'm not trying to justify it at all. I think that if a state has to be cajoled to allow spectator sports at all, finding a way to not have spectator sports is super legit. Moving the game is fine and dandy (if ND is the top seed, Indy makes more sense, less so if they are not)

But that kids want their parents there is, maybe a good reason in a moral sense, but neither a functional nor good one in a real world sense. I'm sure those kids really, really want to spend Christmas with family. And a lot don't get to so they can play in deeply inessential bowls. (I'm also sure they want to do what they want the night before games ... but this is not allowed either)
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MrNubbz on December 19, 2020, 08:27:49 AM
 Moving the game is fine and dandy (if ND is the top seed, Indy makes more sense, less so if they are not)
Ya they'll need to join the BIG for that
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: bayareabadger on December 19, 2020, 08:38:06 AM
Ya they'll need to join the BIG for that
Playoff does what it wants!
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 19, 2020, 08:39:25 AM
Yes. I think it is the California Governor’s latest restrictions which are making this challenging. 

If you had the opportunity to read that article what Kellie is saying is that he personally doesn’t think his players want to play across the country if their families can’t attend. He is saying that first they have to get to the playoffs but if they do his players have already been pretty vocal about what they’ve been through this year.

It probably is a hollow threat but I can certainly understand why a player would feel that way. Why can’t they just play in Indianapolis or the Cotton  Bowl or somewhere where families could attend.
I agree. So yeah, let's take kids from Ohio, Alabama, Indiana and South Carolina and ship them to California, where they can't have any fans and can't do a f'ing thing while they are there because the governor is an idiot control freak.

F that.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2020, 09:08:59 AM
move EVERYTHING out of California

F the Governor 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: bayareabadger on December 19, 2020, 09:13:31 AM
move EVERYTHING out of California

Yes! YES!

Do that so the housing prices are lowered and I can move closer to friends and family. 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 19, 2020, 10:04:03 AM
What if there is no place left to work? You might look at Austin.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MrNubbz on December 19, 2020, 10:10:03 AM
Playoff does what it wants!
Not if the BIG has a contract
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
the playoff tells the 4 teams where to play

Big is just lucky to get an invite to the party
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MrNubbz on December 19, 2020, 10:26:04 AM
Just saying it doesn't dislodge the CCG - simple enough
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2020, 10:33:24 AM
thought you were referring to the Rose Bowl
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 19, 2020, 08:03:03 PM
Looking like the Rose Bowl is out for the CFP, likely moving to AT&T in Dallas.   
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2020, 08:13:08 PM
good.  F the Governor 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 20, 2020, 07:40:27 AM
So, Bama and Clemson are in.  Ohio State likely is in.  Shock if not.

Then .... Somebody I guess.  We are where we expected to be.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2020, 09:33:11 AM
What if there is no place left to work? You might look at Austin.
You're on thin ice, sir.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MrNubbz on December 20, 2020, 09:39:04 AM
There's no Ice in Austin - too hot and steamy or so I'm told.Don't move there
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2020, 09:39:24 AM
Thank You For Your Support
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: longhorn320 on December 20, 2020, 10:33:08 AM
There's no Ice in Austin - too hot and steamy or so I'm told.Don't move there
too many bats
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2020, 12:17:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/QTOIOMV.png)
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 20, 2020, 01:48:17 PM
I don't understand the placement of the two games:

I expected:

The way they did it I don't see a location advantage for either #1 or #2. Maybe they figure it doesn't matter with severely limited spectators. 

Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 01:58:55 PM
shouldn't be trying to produce a location advantage

just a location that produces the highest attendance

doesn't really matter this season
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 20, 2020, 02:33:12 PM
shouldn't be trying to produce a location advantage

just a location that produces the highest attendance

doesn't really matter this season
I could be wrong but I thought #1 and maybe #2 were supposed to get a location advantage. 
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 02:34:32 PM
why?

if so, why not just have the first round on campus?
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: Cincydawg on December 20, 2020, 04:52:35 PM
I do not like having a team that lost the CG get into the playoff especially if the CG was a blow out.

I see UGA gets UC, how droll.
Title: Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
Post by: MrNubbz on December 20, 2020, 05:24:24 PM
I do not like having a team that lost the CG get into the playoff especially if the CG was a blow out.

I see UGA gets UC, how droll.
The winner gets to whisper sweet nothings into the committee's ear