CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on December 15, 2020, 11:22:37 AM
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Teams with 1st Loss Week 15:
Colorado
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 15:
Nevada
Florida
Miami (FL)
Western Michigan
Teams with 1st Win Week 15:
Arizona State
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
8: Coastal Carolina, Alabama, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Ohio State, San Jose State, USC, and Buffalo
-We are down one this week with the loss of Colorado to Utah.
Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 7: 7.5% (5 of 67) -Added 50 teams to list.
Week 8: 24.2% (15 of 62)
Week 9: 12.8% (6 of 47)
Week 10: 31.7% (13 of 41)
Week 11: 21.4% (6 of 28)
Week 12: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 13: 23.5% (4 of 17)
Week 14: 30.8% (4 of 13)
Week 15: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Week 15 Thoughts:
-Let's start with the win-less team column. Arizona was the last team to get their first win and the rest of the list is likely set. Every team on the list is either off or had their game canceled next week. That leaves 9 win-less teams which is the record by a lot. All of the lists are larger than normal going into the last week of the season, but that is not surprising given the shorter season and fewer non-conference games.
-Losing Colorado hurts the PAC-12 chances. Given, the major cancellation issues in the north, it was definitely possible that the the conference would decide it was better to put an undefeated ranked Colorado vs. an undefeated ranked USC. They would have still needed chaos, but I think that was the PAC-12's best shot for a late entry to the CFP battle. USC might still stand a chance in complete chaos, but that is probably it (where they are ranked tonight might tell us those odds). That said, if they win and don't make it, that would be the first time an undefeated champ of a power 5 conference did not make it. The limited schedule though combined with close games hurts their case.
-San Jose State beat Nevada and stays unbeaten in the Mountain West. With fewer games and the late start, they have a very uphill battle right now to compete for the NY6 spot. Cincinnati definitely has it if they win. If they lose, Coastal Carolina gets it if they win. If they both lose, then it could come down to San Jose State if they win, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulsa. I think San Jose State as the only unbeaten could take it in that scenario, but they need to look good against Boise State (and they are underdogs). I would lean to Louisiana-Lafayette over Tulsa otherwise, but could go either way.
-Miami (FL) just played their way out of a NY6 bowl. If both Notre Dame and Clemson make the NY6, the Orange Bowl will still have to take an ACC team, but, in that case, it will now be North Carolina instead of Miami (FL). If one of Notre Dame or Clemson doesn't make the CFP, then the loser is in the Orange Bowl.
-Florida losing was surprising and reduces the SEC odds of 2 teams in, but only moderately. If Alabama wins, Texas A&M still very possible, but this likely hit them a bit too (their Florida win no longer quite as impressive). It might also throw Florida out of NY6 contention if they lose badly this week.
-Speaking of NY6, there are 12 spots in the bowls. For every team outside of the top 12 in, you have to be one spot higher to make it in. This year, we know the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 champs will be in the top 12. The Group of 5's highest conference champ will be if Cincinnati wins and probably if Coastal Carolina wins (although they could be borderline). The Big Ten's champ will probably be there even if it's Northwestern (#15 currently, but would jump several spots, certainly past Indiana, with a win). That leaves most the risk for someone outside the top 12 in from the PAC-12 and the ACC's locked in Orange Bowl spot. USC will almost certainly make the top 12 if they win the PAC-12 (currently at #15 before rankings tonight, and they will probably jump a good deal). Oregon likely would not though. For the ACC, if Clemson and Notre Dame both make the Rose/Sugar Bowls, then North Carolina will be in the Orange Bowl and likely outside the top 12. I'd put the over-under of the top 11 teams making NY6 bowls.
Week 16 Thoughts:
-We have no games involving winless teams this week so that list is set.
-Involving others we have:
UAB @ 1-loss Marshall (Friday): Not for a NY6 game, but still for a Conference USA Championship.
Oregon vs. undefeated USC: Oregon felt jipped not getting their chance to win the PAC-12 North vs. Washington, but are here anyway. Despite being 3-2 right now, they can win their way into the NY6 in this strange year. USC for its part, wants to win big and hope for complete chaos for a pretty outside chance at the Rose/Sugar.
Purdue @ 1-loss Indiana (Friday), Army @ Air Force, Minnesota @ Wisconsin, Stanford @ UCLA: All rivalry games that got rescheduled to this week that I'm glad are (hopefully) happening. Indiana is playing to stay in contention for a NY6 bowl (they are on the edge).
1-loss Northwestern vs. undefeated Ohio State: Buckeyes almost certainly in top 4 with a win. Northwestern get a NY6 bowl with a win. Those hoping for chaos need to root against Ohio State.
1-loss Texas A&M @ Tennessee: Texas A&M hoping they can sneak into CFP and won't let up. If want chaos, root for the Volunteers.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State: Playing for the Big 12 Championship and likely the only NY6 spot for the conference (Iowa State could stay in play with a loss, but more than likely would drop a bit). Under enough chaos, winner could make CFP (would require a lot).
1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette @ undefeated Coastal Carolina: Biggest Sun Belt Championship game in history (although it is not a long standing game). Winner will root against Cincinnati later in day. If Coastal wins, they are in NY6 with a Cincinnati loss. If Louisiana-Lafayette wins, they stand a decent chance with a Cincinnati loss, but are not a shoe in (they would be helped by Iowa State winning Big 12). Coastal won the first match-up early in the season.
1-loss Clemson vs. undefeated Notre Dame: Winner is in the CFP and the loser might be too if loss not too bad (especially if it's Notre Dame). Worst case for either team is the Orange Bowl. If you want chaos, root for a blowout (a Notre Dame blowout being better, a blowout the other way might work too). Worst case scenario for chaos (that helps lower teams) would be a game cancellation that would put both teams in CFP for sure.
1-loss Boise State vs. undefeated Fresno State: For the Mountain West title. Fresno State is at least in the conversation for NY6 with a win and a Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina loss.
Undefeated Alabama vs. Florida: Alabama can probably afford to lose as long as it is not a blowout, but this is still for the SEC title. Florida winning this would certainly create chaos, but not of a kind any lower ranked teams wants. That would leave the committee evaluating a 2-loss SEC champion Florida (who beat Alabama), a 1-loss Alabama (who beat Texas A&M) and a 1-loss Texas A&M (who beat Florida).
1-loss Tulsa @ undefeated Cincinnati: The NY6 spot is Cincinnati's with a win no questions asked. If there was extreme chaos early in the day (not of the SEC Championship variety), then there is an outside shot of even more on the line (I lean against, but not impossible). Tulsa for its part will be very strongly considered for the NY6 spot with a win.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 8
Cincinnati
Alabama
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Ohio State
Southern California
Buffalo
San Jose State
One-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 4, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 2, total: 16
Tulsa
Clemson
Indiana
Liberty
Miami (OH)
Ohio
Ball State
Boise State
Texas A&M
Louisiana-Lafayette
Northwestern
Kent State
Brigham Young
Marshall
Washington
Colorado
Remaining Winless Teams: Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 9
Kansas
Florida International
Massachusetts
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
UNLV
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Louisiana-Monroe
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What was the previous record for the number of winless teams at seasons end?
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Best case scenario for any team not named Bama, ND, tOSU, Clemson, or aTm:
- Bama wins SECCG thus eliminating UF (if they aren't already eliminated).
- ND blows out Clemson thus eliminating 2-loss non-Champion Clemson.
- Northwestern solidly defeats tOSU thus eliminating 5-1 non-Champion tOSU.
- Tennessee beats aTm thus eliminating 2-loss non-Champion aTm.
In that case:
- Undefeated SEC Champion Bama is in and gets the #1 seed.
- Undefeated ACC Champion ND is in and gets the #2 seed.
Contenders for the other two spots:
- #4 tOSU: In this scenario the Buckeyes would be 5-1 but with no league title and a H2H loss to 6-1 B1G Champion #14 Northwestern. I can't see the Buckeyes getting in that way. Maybe if they were 12-1 but not 5-1.
- #7 ISU (will probably move to #6 due to UF's loss): Assuming that they beat OU. The Cyclones would be a P5 Champion albeit with two losses. Also, both losses are problematic. One was to Louisiana whose only loss is to CCU and who is playing CCU for the Sun Belt Championship. There would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Sun Belt if their Champion was left out while a team that lost to one of their best teams got in. This would be true either way because the Sun Belt Champ would either be the Louisiana team that beat ISU H2H or a CCU team that beat Louisiana twice.
- #8 Cincinnati (will probably move to #7 due to UF's loss): Assuming that they beat Tulsa. Their major issue, as a G5 team, is SoS and perception, obviously.
- #9 Georgia (may move to #8 due to UF's loss but not necessarily because they still have the same number of losses as the Gators and a H2H loss to the Gators): Georgia might be playing well enough to warrant CFP consideration NOW, but with multiple-score losses to both UF and Bama it is hard to imagine the committee putting them in ahead of either of those teams or aTm and the CFP is not going to be three, let alone four SEC teams so IMHO, Georgia has no chance.
- #11 Oklahoma: (will definitely move up one spot due to Miami's loss and may move up another due to UF's loss) Assuming they beat ISU they would be a P5 Champion albeit with two losses. The arguments in favor would be that both losses were within one score and one (ISU) was avenged in the CG. Additionally, both losses were early and one was to a pretty good ISU team. OTOH, the other loss was to a sub .500 KSU team.
- #13 CCU: (could move up a few spots due to UF's and Miami's losses) Assuming they beat #19 Louisiana again they'll be a G5 Champion. Their first problem is that it appears that unless Cincy loses, the Bearcats will be the best shot for the G5 and we aren't going to see two G5's in the CFP. After that it would be SoS and perception. Their final problem is that they are so far back that some of the losers in the hypothetical above (Clemson, tOSU, aTm) could still be ahead of them even after losing and not winning a league title.
- #14 Northwestern: IMHO, Northwestern is too far back and their loss is too bad to merit serious consideration but if they were to solidly beat the #4 Buckeyes they'd have a better marquee win than any of the other teams on this list.
- #15 USC: Assuming they beat Oregon they would be an undefeated P5 Champion and no undefeated P5 Champion has ever been left out That said, each previous undefeated P5 Champion in the CFP era had more than twice as many wins as USC would have. They were each 13-0 not 6-0 which is what USC would be.
IMHO, that is it. I skipped:
- #10 Miami: Two losses including a bad blowout and no league title, no chance.
- #12 Indiana: The Hoosiers can't make up enough ground by playing Purdue (they probably couldn't anyway).
- #16 Iowa and below: None of the teams from Iowa on down can make up enough ground.
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Like the analysis Medina
Brutus, not sure right off the bat, but odd to have more than 2. Sometimes there is not one. I doubt I've had 4 since I started.