CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on December 08, 2020, 03:33:37 PM
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* Under normal parliamentary procedure ties fail. Thus, if UW moves to change the rule and UNL seconds (which is how it would probably go down), in the event of a 7-7 tie, the motion would fail.
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My position has changed now that this has become a reality. I think that regardless of what can be arranged this weekend, the B1G should waive its own rule and send the best team to the title game.
It's the year of Covid, all bets are off...
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I don't think it will go to a vote.
they all know it wouldn't be allowed if voted on
the Commish will use his executive order
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Bottom line, this is between tOSU and IU. My guess is that the schools who most see themselves as tOSU in this situation will be for tOSU while those who see themselves as IU in this situation will be for IU.
Schools I think are most likely to vote for tOSU:
- tOSU, duh
- UW, Alvarez already said so.
- UNL, for two reasons. First because they certainly aspire to be a CFP contender. Second because tOSU and UNL have been pretty tight lately working to get the season played, etc.
- M, this may seem counter-intuitive but they see themselves MUCH more as tOSU than as IU.
- PSU, reasonable aspirations to CFP.
- MSU, only other B1G team that has actually been to the CFP.
After that . . . I'm not sure. I think the least likely are IU, NU, and PU. IU because it costs them a B1GCG berth, NU because it drops their title chances from around 40% to around 5%, PU because the same-state schools tend to stick together.
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I just kinda picked a "gut feel" number, without analyzing exactly who will/won't vote certain ways.
I.e. I could see IU voting no, obviously. Purdue voting yes potentially to snub IU (but claim it's for the good of the conference to have a better representative in the postseason). Potentially M voting no to snub OSU. UNL voting no because they're butthurt about the B1G not letting them schedule a replacement for the W game... Most of the others voting yes to have the best conference representative in the biggest game. Etc.
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I can't come up with reasons for 2 schools to vote with tOSU
possibly Nebraska, but I doubt it.
absolutely no other program - why would they?
would OSU buy votes under the table??
what would OSU have to bargain with besides straight cash?
perhaps a promise to vote with your interests sometime in the future??
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Bottom line, this is between tOSU and IU. My guess is that the schools who most see themselves as tOSU in this situation will be for tOSU while those who see themselves as IU in this situation will be for IU.
Schools I think are most likely to vote for tOSU:
- tOSU, duh
- UW, Alvarez already said so.
- UNL, for two reasons. First because they certainly aspire to be a CFP contender. Second because tOSU and UNL have been pretty tight lately working to get the season played, etc.
- M, this may seem counter-intuitive but they see themselves MUCH more as tOSU than as IU.
- PSU, reasonable aspirations to CFP.
- MSU, only other B1G team that has actually been to the CFP.
After that . . . I'm not sure. I think the least likely are IU, NU, and PU. IU because it costs them a B1GCG berth, NU because it drops their title chances from around 40% to around 5%, PU because the same-state schools tend to stick together.
I think OSU could get Iowa and the the two newest on board.
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I honestly don't care. Put OSU against the Iowa Wiscy winner, let Indiana play in the championship, and call it a day. The ones pushing to change the rules are Fox executives who want OSU in the B1G championship game.
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If Iowa defeats Wisconsin, and is 6-2, and if Northwestern defeats Illinois, Northwestern isthe Big Ten West conference champion at 5-1;
and, if Iowa defeats Wisconsin, and Illinois defeats Northwestern and Northwestern is the Big Ten West champion at 5-2, then,
Ohio State would only care about wanting to play in the championship game, if it fears Iowa more than Northwestern. I don't think it makes a hoot bit of difference because if Ohio State defeats either team they are in the CFP, and Ohio State will have little care about whether it is the COVID-19 Big Ten Champion for 2020.
If Iowa and Northwestern both lose to their rivals this Saturday, it will be disappointing for the Big Ten Conference because Ohio State will be playing in a championship, or 2nd place game against what will appear to be much lesser opponent. Overall, I think it matters very little who Ohio State plays in cross-over week. Ohio State will be heavily favored.
I suspect Iowa has developed somewhat better than Northwestern at this point in the season, and would be a modestly more worthy opponent, but my suspicion can very easily be overcome in rivalry week. Wisconsin cast a hex on Iowa several years ago.
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HA! saw this on another board
"Do they now apologize to Herbstreit?"
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Not until Desmond apologizes. :88:
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HA! saw this on another board
"Do they now apologize to Herbstreit?"
hell yes
Herby should be on top of this
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(https://i.imgur.com/BzBBRDe.png)
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I think this thread is really completely moot. I seriously doubt it’s a vote. They will get together and discuss doing “the right thing for everybody “
I would like to hear from y’all about what you think that is.
I will add to max’s theory that it’s not the big problem for Ohio State, it is the number of games.
If Florida somehow beat Alabama and a good game, and Clemson beat Notre Dame is a good game, having Ohio stay with only six total games will give the committee just enough reason to keep them out. And that is exactly what they would do.
Fun times. 4 teams all with a loss in the Playoff, and the only power 5 team being undefeated- out.
So 2020
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There cannot be a vote on this, it would not be helpful in any respect. Its a bad look, the whole way this season went down, no point in introducing another slice of the crap sandwich.
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There cannot be a vote on this, it would not be helpful in any respect. Its a bad look, the whole way this season went down, no point in introducing another slice of the crap sandwich.
This.
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I don't think it will go to a vote.
they all know it wouldn't be allowed if voted on
the Commish will use his executive order
Ed Zachery
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If Florida somehow beat Alabama and a good game, and Clemson beat Notre Dame is a good game, having Ohio stay with only six total games will give the committee just enough reason to keep them out. And that is exactly what they would do.
Fun times. 4 teams all with a loss in the Playoff, and the only power 5 team being undefeated- out.
So 2020
It makes no difference in the quality of Ohio State's schedule not to play Michigan. I am of the opinion the Committee is smarter than to choose four one loss teams over an undefeated Ohio State. If Iowa and Northwestern both lose this Saturday, and your scenario with Florida/Alabama, and Clemson/Notre Dame occurs, then maybe Ohio State could be left out.
It is also remotely possible Ohio State will be a one-loss team, and controversy will be avoided.
Has anyone heard if Minnesota is likely to play this weekend?
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It makes no difference in the quality of Ohio State's schedule not to play Michigan. I am of the opinion the Committee is smarter than to choose four one loss teams over an undefeated Ohio State. If Iowa and Northwestern both lose this Saturday, and your scenario with Florida/Alabama, and Clemson/Notre Dame occurs, then maybe Ohio State could be left out.
It is also remotely possible Ohio State will be a one-loss team, and controversy will be avoided.
Has anyone heard if Minnesota is likely to play this weekend?
Well sir Reece Davis and Herb Dorkstreet agree with what I projected. If Florida beats Bama and Clemson bets ND- OSU out.
This is why so many of us hate this system. It is 200% subjective.
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I think an undefeated Buckeye team gets in with a convincing win over the Hawkeyes or Northwestern
both solid opponents
much more solid than Michigan
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Has anyone heard if Minnesota is likely to play this weekend?
so far, the Gophers are expected in Lincoln
the Commish could be on the phone to the boat rower as we speak asking if PJ can come up with a few more positives or cases ro cancel the game and allow the rematch between Buckeyes/Huskers
Of course the Commish would also have to make a phone call to UNL
I doubt Moos and Frost are eager to help the man out of his predicament
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There is no way on God's green earth uf beats the tide. Quit wasting your breath.
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I feel like I am missing something here. I would expect the schools to vote 100% to name OSU to be the division champion.
OSU is undefeated and beat Indiana. They played 5 games total, which should be enough. OSU clearly deserves to be the division champion. Even if OSU played Mich and lost, they would still be the division champion. Case closed.
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I feel like I am missing something here. I would expect the schools to vote 100% to name OSU to be the division champion.
OSU is undefeated and beat Indiana. They played 5 games total, which should be enough. OSU clearly deserves to be the division champion. Even if OSU played Mich and lost, they would still be the division champion. Case closed.
Your last sentence is the really funny part. It would matter for the CFP, obviously but wrt the CG the result of THE GAME would be completely irrelevant. Ohio State would be in with either a win or a loss. They just need another game.
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so far, the Gophers are expected in Lincoln
the Commish could be on the phone to the boat rower as we speak asking if PJ can come up with a few more positives or cases ro cancel the game and allow the rematch between Buckeyes/Huskers
Of course the Commish would also have to make a phone call to UNL
I doubt Moos and Frost are eager to help the man out of his predicament
Moos isn't thrilled with commish right now but I do think that tOSU and UNL have been on the same page and working together from day 1. UNL might not do it for the league that fought them on playing and wouldn't let them play OOC, but I think they might do it for tOSU.
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I can't come up with reasons for 2 schools to vote with tOSU
possibly Nebraska, but I doubt it.
absolutely no other program - why would they?
would OSU buy votes under the table??
what would OSU have to bargain with besides straight cash?
perhaps a promise to vote with your interests sometime in the future??
There is a LOT of money involved, but I'm not sure what scenario is best for the league financially. Remember that bowl payouts are partially split in the B1G so this impacts every B1G team (and likely influences their vote).
This is probably the most important consideration so figuring it out is pretty important.
I'm assuming:
Best financial case for the B1G:
- One team (tOSU) in the CFP
- another team (IU/NU) in the NY6
So the league might be better off financially to keep tOSU out of the CG thus guaranteeing that we'll have no worse than two NY6 teams (tOSU would make it as at-large if they missed the CFP and the IU/NU winner would be guaranteed as the Champion).
Worst financial case for the B1G:
- One and only one team (tOSU) in the CFP or NY6.
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There is no way on God's green earth uf beats the tide. Quit wasting your breath.
I think the Tide could beat us without throwing a pass.
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(https://scontent.fdsm1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s600x600/128775985_1365784253759669_7065960138163505574_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=2&_nc_sid=a26aad&_nc_ohc=4nw0BnNforQAX-1x-I2&_nc_ht=scontent.fdsm1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=233a2ea26382b8e9e5ff762c1a484175&oe=5FF66DA1)
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A 6-0 team is no more likely to be better than a 9-1 team. If we know anything about anything, it's that the larger your sample, the better.
Ohio State has exactly 1 good win right now. Alabama has 2 better wins by much larger margins of victory. OSU's 7-point win is roughly tied with Alabama's blowout over Auburn.
If the Tide were to lose to Florida....their resume is still better.
Florida's resume isn't as strong, but a win over Bama and the blowout over UGA would both be better than a 7-point win over IU.
Clemson and ND would be in the same boat with each other - wins over each other and blowing out Miami/UNC.
We all know OSU is great. They have the talent/eye test/etc as good as anyone, including Bama. But their resume is crap. It's sort of now ironic that all those times SEC schools supposedly got the eye-test benefit and now B1Gers want the same for OSU.
In 2020, OSU is the super genius applying to work at Tesla, but only has a fast food job on its resume.
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Personally, I'd leave ND out.
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Personally, I'd leave ND out.
The committee's ranking of Clemson at #3 is, I think, acknowledgement that their loss to ND was with them short-handed and on the road. The committee appears to have taken that into account and not significantly docked the Tigers for that. However, they ignored the obvious next step of not fully rewarding ND for that win.
I think that signals that the committee will dock ND HARD when they lose to Clemson in the rematch/ACCCG.
My guesstimate:
- Bama - wins out easily, clear #1.
- Clemson - Beats ND easily.
- tOSU - wins out (either one or two games) gets Clemson in a CFP semi-final again.
- aTm - because they aren't putting 2-loss UF, ISU/OU, UGA over them and the other 1-loss teams are all already behind them.
ND falls behind not only aTm but also ISU/OU and Cincy (assuming they win out). ISU/OU gets the final #5 spot.
So the CFP semi-finals would be:
- #1 Bama vs #4 aTm in the Sugar Bowl
- #2 Clemson vs #3 tOSU in the Rose Bowl
Bama wins easily. Clemson/tOSU is another dogfight like last year. Bama beats the Clemson/tOSU winner in part because they are probably better and in part because they'll be a LOT more rested coming off of a relatively easy semi-final while tOSU/Clemson will be beat up coming off of battling each other.
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Personally, I'd leave ND out.
yup, a one loss ND
falls behind an undefeated OSU
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I don't think A&M gets in over ND. Even if Clemson beat them 55-0.
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Coa
My guesstimate:
- Bama - wins out easily, clear #1.
- Clemson - Beats ND easily.
- tOSU - wins out (either one or two games) gets Clemson in a CFP semi-final again.
- aTm - because they aren't putting 2-loss UF, ISU/OU, UGA over them and the other 1-loss teams are all already behind them.
You are discounting Coastal Carolina, and Morningside College? :)
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The rules are the rules. Indiana deserves to be in the Big Ten championship game.
As for the playoffs it is doubtful they could put a 6-0 Ohio State team ahead of teams who played and won more games. Ohio State’s best win is over Indiana. Not a great resume.
The Big Ten F’d itself when it canceled its 10 game season early on.
Cheers!
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If Michigan is available next week then reschedule THE GAME, and let Indiana and Northwestern play in the asterisk bowl.
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The rules are the rules. Indiana deserves to be in the Big Ten championship game.
As for the playoffs it is doubtful they could put a 6-0 Ohio State team ahead of teams who played and won more games. Ohio State’s best win is over Indiana. Not a great resume.
The Big Ten F’d itself when it canceled its 10 game season early on.
Cheers!
Thanks but nobody asked for the "I'm a Michigan fan and I hate Ohio State" hot take.
Look, if you are going to troll at least put some effort into it.
The great thing about this board is that we generally avoid this kind of blind homerism/haterism that any of us could find at MGOBLUE or in the inverse at Bucknuts.
Your statement that "Indiana deserves to be in the CG" gives away your trolling. There is a very credible argument for IU to go but it obviously is NOT this. The team that deserves to go is the best team in the B1G-E. It is manifestly obvious that the best team in the B1G-E is the Ohio State University. Every reasonably neutral observer knows this. Plenty of non-tOSU fans such as Barry Alvarez, the Detroit Free Press, and many others have acknowledged this.
If Indiana goes to the B1GCG it will be because of the operation of a technicality in the rules, not because they deserve to go.
The reasonable and credible argument in favor of IU (assuming tOSU doesn't find an opponent for this weekend) is that it would be unfair to change the rules mid-stream. Further, it reeks of favoritism to change the rules to the advantage of one of the Helmets and the disadvantage of one of the non-helmets.
The reasonable and credible argument in favor of tOSU (again assuming tOSU doesn't find an opponent for this weekend) is that the fundamental purpose of the rules is to put the best team in the CG. If the rules as written are going to fail at that task, then the rules have failed at their fundamental purpose and they are bad rules that should be changed such that the fundamental purpose can be achieved.
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If Michigan is available next week then reschedule THE GAME, and let Indiana and Northwestern play in the asterisk bowl.
Apparently UW and MN are talking about wanting to play the Axe game next week instead of their "Champions Week" cross-over.
The conference should have started sooner and built in a bye week or two so that at least some missed games could be replaced. If they had, tOSU would have played Michigan last week and would be playing a rescheduled game against Maryland this week and none of this would be an issue.
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Thanks but nobody asked for the "I'm a Michigan fan and I hate Ohio State" hot take.
Look, if you are going to troll at least put some effort into it.
The great thing about this board is that we generally avoid this kind of blind homerism/haterism that any of us could find at MGOBLUE or in the inverse at Bucknuts.
Your statement that "Indiana deserves to be in the CG" gives away your trolling. There is a very credible argument for IU to go but it obviously is NOT this. The team that deserves to go is the best team in the B1G-E. It is manifestly obvious that the best team in the B1G-E is the Ohio State University. Every reasonably neutral observer knows this. Plenty of non-tOSU fans such as Barry Alvarez, the Detroit Free Press, and many others have acknowledged this.
If Indiana goes to the B1GCG it will be because of the operation of a technicality in the rules, not because they deserve to go.
The reasonable and credible argument in favor of IU (assuming tOSU doesn't find an opponent for this weekend) is that it would be unfair to change the rules mid-stream. Further, it reeks of favoritism to change the rules to the advantage of one of the Helmets and the disadvantage of one of the non-helmets.
The reasonable and credible argument in favor of tOSU (again assuming tOSU doesn't find an opponent for this weekend) is that the fundamental purpose of the rules is to put the best team in the CG. If the rules as written are going to fail at that task, then the rules have failed at their fundamental purpose and they are bad rules that should be changed such that the fundamental purpose can be achieved.
Damn Medina. You are one of the best posters here by far because you use and provide so much useful data. But this post here is strictly a narrative and it may be your best post ever!
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Damn Medina. You are one of the best posters here by far because you use and provide so much useful data. But this post here is strictly a narrative and it may be your best post ever!
Thank you!
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I wouldn’t be changing the rules mid-stream. It would be changing them at the end because some don’t like the result.
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Also worth noting there is no unfair advantage here. OSU could have trotted out all of us on the team, lost 152-0, and then would have clinched the division under the rules.
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I'll play left tackle. I'm short, but have good technique.
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Not sure how your bedroom prowess will help you play left tackle, but okay
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Not sure how your bedroom prowess will help you play left tackle, but okay
Brutus Buckeye: “ i’m here all week “
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Michigan's AD has come out in favor of a rule change:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/wolverines/2020/12/michigan-ad-ok-with-changing-big-ten-rule-for-ohio-state.html%3foutputType=amp
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It has been changed. Also, I don't realize Indiana paused their activities. Had they been unable to play championship weekend, it would have been Northwestern-Michigan State for the B1G championship.
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Wouldn't be the first time a team got a chance at a Big Ten title with a third place divisional finish.
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Report: Big Ten amends rule, plans for Ohio State-Northwestern conference championship game (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/report-big-ten-amends-rule-plans-for-ohio-state-northwestern-conference-championship-game/ar-BB1bMCfA?ocid=msedgntp)
If:
Clemson > Notre Dame
Florida > Alabama
Illinois > Northwestern,
it could really put Ohio State in jeopardy if this new rule is actually enforced, provided Iowa goes 6-2.
With Indiana pausing activities for COVID, the 2nd place cross-over game could be Iowa v. Maryland.
Where are these cross-over games other than the Big Ten CG being played? Anyone heard yet? There was discussion about playing all of them in domes. There is a dome 70-miles north of Iowa City. What is the closest dome to College Park?
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Report: Big Ten amends rule, plans for Ohio State-Northwestern conference championship game (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/report-big-ten-amends-rule-plans-for-ohio-state-northwestern-conference-championship-game/ar-BB1bMCfA?ocid=msedgntp)
If:
Clemson > Notre Dame
Florida > Alabama
Illinois > Northwestern,
it could really put Ohio State in jeopardy if this new rule is actually enforced, provided Iowa goes 6-2.
I don't understand what Iowa going 6-2 has to do with tOSU's CFP chances. On the rest, my thoughts:
- Clemson>Notre Dame: IMHO, this solidifies Clemson's spot and effectively eliminates the Irish because they'd be a 1-loss non-champion. They might not be eliminated but they would be well behind an undefeated B1G Champion Ohio State, IMO.
- Florida>Bama: First, I put the likelihood of this somewhere around 5-10% so I'm not overly worried. Second, even assuming it happens AND that causes UF to jump tOSU AND tOSU doesn't jump Bama, I still think the Buckeyes are in if they win out and out if not.
- IL>NU: At first I didn't understand what you were getting at here. Now I get it. That would drop NU's ranking which would deprive tOSU of a quality win. Eh, not sure it matters.
What does Iowa going 6-2 have to do with it?
With Indiana pausing activities for COVID, the 2nd place cross-over game could be Iowa v. Maryland.
Where are these cross-over games other than the Big Ten CG being played? Anyone heard yet? There was discussion about playing all of them in domes. There is a dome 70-miles north of Iowa City. What is the closest dome to College Park?
It is REALLY hard to predict the crossovers for three reasons:
- The bottom four in each division is effectively a 4-way tie for 4th/5th/6th/7th so basically anything can happen.
- There is a rumor that UW and MN are trying to get exempted so that they can play their rivalry game for the Axe instead. If that happens it excludes them plus two teams in the East would also have to play each other to balance it back out.
- I thought I heard somewhere that they wanted to avoid rematches so even after the final standings are determined we'll still have to make adjustments for that.
I have no idea where the "Champions Week" games are going to be played. It is a good question and I would like to know but frankly, that stopped being a concern to me once they changed the rule such that tOSU will be in the CG. I know where that one is going to be played.
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Frankly I'd St ll rather get THE GAME in if at all possible.
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What does Iowa going 6-2 have to do with it?
Ohio State would have an arguably more worthy opponent if it played Iowa should Northwestern lose, and improved SOS.
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Ohio State would have an arguably more worthy opponent if it played Iowa should Northwestern lose, and improved SOS.
I get that but they already changed the six game minimum rule. Ohio State will play Northwestern in the B1GCG on December 19. Previously I was thinking, as you laid it out, that if tOSU got excluded from the CG the silver lining would be that Iowa might well be a better opponent.
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Ohio State would have an arguably more worthy opponent if it played Iowa should Northwestern lose, and improved SOS.
I think winning the conference is a bigger boon then playing a perceived slightly better opponent.