CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 28, 2020, 07:32:46 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-5-18896/).
Votes through @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) , 13 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/xgG9wM2.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/5SYuBYL.png)
Graphic of rankings so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/Wg5xNSr.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/mPkD7jn.jpg)
COTY/hot seat chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/CjiBR3L.jpg)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/HvuWG5u.png)
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The world is upside down.
1. OSU
Probably the best team in the league and may not be eligible for the CCG. But that might work out for OSU's playoff chances if they end up playing a higher ranked team in the 2nd place game.
2. Indy
Managed to get a decent victory in a weekend where most favorites did not play very well.
3. NW
Still has wins over Iowa, Purdue, Wiscy Neb, and MD
4. Iowa
Not a great showing against Nebby but got it done in the end
5. Wiscy
This may be too low but just don't have a lot of games to evaluate them
6. Purdue
Strange collapse against Rutgers. They still seem like a decent team
7. MD
8. Minny
9. ILL
10. Neb
11. PSU
12. Rut
13. MSU
14. Mich
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Ohio State- COVID can slow them down
Indiana- only loss to OSU
NW- still the best in the west gets a bye this week to rethink going for it on 4th down’s
Iowa -will have a chance to prove it the next 2 weeks
Wisconsin- cant penalize them for not playing this last game has 2 tough games remaining
Maryland- starts to get fuzzy from here on out
MSU- the defense showed up, was it lack of practice or illness early on
Illinois- not their fault that they couldn’t play
Rutgers- ?
Purdue-?
Nebraska-?
PSU-??
Michigan-??
Minnesota- most likely will not play another game this year Due to COVID
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- Ohio St
- Indiana
- Wisconsin
- Northwestern
- Iowa
- Maryland
- Minnesota
- Rutgers
- Michigan State
- Michigan
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Nebraska
- Penn State
Who knows what the future holds? I cannot figure out the recent past.
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Ersh. Just gonna go with my gut here
1. OSU: In the COVID spiral
2. Wisconsin: They got Northwestern'd, but I like their defense a lot. It's really a matter of me liking their defense better than I like Indiana's offense.
3. Indiana: Their defense carried the day against Maryland when their offense was somewhat sputtering. Very intrigued by their tilt against Wisconsin.
4. Northwestern: Play with fire on the offensive end, can only win so many games getting less than 300 yards of offense. But with wins over Iowa and Wisconsin, tough to rank them lower.
5. Iowa: A very sound team, too bad they dropped those early games.
6. Penn State: Screw it, why not
7. Maryland: Showed a little moxy on defense after getting out of COVID
8. Minnesota: If they can escape COVID, see if they can continue to improve
9. Rutgers: Play with a heck of a lot more moxy than they did the past few years
10. Purdue: Not sure what is causing them to tailspin
11. Michigan: Really not good at football
12. MSU: Just when you count them out...
13. Nebraska: Can't get over the hump
14. Illinois: Not pathetic, but so hard to rank these teams any more and so here they go
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My usual weekly ranking of B1G teams based on how they have performed relative to their opponents' other opponents.
Notes:
- These are NOT my rankings, just for information.
- These rankings are based solely on point differential except that all OT games are considered closer than all games decided in regulation. Ie, winning by 1 in regulation is considered a "bigger" win than winning by 8 in OT.
- Ties are split. Ie, in the case of a tie for first/second each gets a 1.5.
Due to the varying number of opponents played:
- For those teams that have played six games (IU, M, RU, PSU, NU, IA) their opponents are simply ranked 1-2-3-4-5-6.
- For those teams that have played five games (MSU, MN, PU, IL, UNL) their opponents are ranked 1.5-2.5-3.5-4.5-5.5. This is the average of the ranking that each opponent would have if the team had played all six games.
- For those teams that have played four games (tOSU, UMD) their opponents are ranked 2-3-4-5. Again, this is the average of the ranking that each opponent would have if the team had played all six games.
- For the team that has played three games (UW), their opponents are ranked 2.5-3.5-4.5. Once again, this is the average of the ranking that each opponent would have if the team had played all six games.
Average of 1.63:
- Ohio State: First of six against IU and RU (1.0), first of five against UNL (1.5), third of six against PSU (3.0).
Average of 2.33:
- Iowa: First of six against PSU (1.0), First of five against MN and MSU (1.5), second of six against NU (2.0), third of five against UNL (3.5), fourth of five against PU (4.5).
Average of 2.50:
- Wisconsin: First of six against M (1.0), First of five against IL (1.5), fifth of six against NU (5).
Average of 2.75:
- Indiana: First of four against tOSU (2.0), second of six against M and RU (2.0), second of five against MSU (2.5), second of four against UMD (3.0), fifth of six against PSU (5.0).
Average of 3.08:
- Northwestern: First of four against UMD (2.0), tied for 1/2 of five against PU (2.0), second of six against IA (2.0), first of three against UW (2.5), fourth of five against UNL (4.5), fifth of five against MSU (5.5).
Average of 3.40:
- Purdue: First of six against IA (1.0), third of six against NU (3.0), third of five against IL (3.5), fourth of five against MN (4.5), fifth of six against RU (5.0).
Average of 3.75:
- Maryland: Second of six against PSU (2.0), tied for 3/4 of six against IU, third of five against MN, fourth of five against MN (4.5).
- Rutgers: Tied for 1/2 of five against PU (2.0), third of five against MSU (3.5), tied for 3/4 of six against IU (3.5), third of four against tOSU (4.0), fourth of five against IL (4.5), fifth of six against M (5.0).
Average of 3.92:
- Penn State: Second of six against IU (2.0), second of four against tOSU (3.0), third of six against M (3.0), fifth of six against Iowa (5.0), fourth of four against UMD (5.0), fifth of six against UNL (5.5).
Average of 4.0:
- Minnesota: Second of five against UNL (2.5), third of five against PU (3.5), fourth of six against IA (4.0), third of four against UMD (4.0), sixth of six against M (6.0).
Average of 4.10:
- Illinois: Second of five against UNL (2.5), third of six against RU (3.0), tied for 2/3 of three against UW (4.0), fifth of five against PU and MN.
Average of 4.30:
- Nebraska: Third of six against Iowa (3.0), fourth of six against NU and PSU (4.0), fourth of four against tOSU (5.0), fifth of five against IL (5.5).
Average of 4.33:
- Michigan: Second of five against MN (2.5), fourth of six against RU (4.0), tied for 2/3 of three against UW (4.0), fourth of five against MSU (4.5), fifth of six against IU (5.0), sixth of six against PSU (6.0).
Average of 4.60:
- Michigan State: First of six against NU (1.0), fourth of six against M (4.0), sixth of six against IU, IA, and RU (6.0).
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So if we simply went by relative performance against opponents it would be:
- 1.63 Ohio State
- 2.33 Iowa
- 2.50 Wisconsin
- 2.75 Indiana
- 3.08 Northwestern
- 3.40 Purdue
- 3.75 Maryland
- 3.75 Rutgers
- 3.92 Penn State
- 4.00 Minnesota
- 4.10 Illinois
- 4.30 Nebraska
- 4.33 Michigan
- 4.60 Michigan State
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Think how easy Ohio State and Clemson have it, unlike Alabama who has to face powerhouse opponents like Auburn and LSU and Ole Miss and Tennessee each year.
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I didn't get a chance to watch any games this week so going completely off of scores/summaries. I also do not think anyone is really all that impressive this year because it seems every week most of the conference is either causing eyebrows to raise or heads lowered with disappointment.
1. tOSU - I've already decided to not penalize anyone because of a forced bye week. Still waiting for them to put a whole game together.
2. Indiana - Nice rebound after coming up just short in their comeback against tOSU.
3. Northwestern - Trailed nearly the entire game but really who goes ahead of them? They would win this FG shootout 9 out of 10 times, too bad the one that counts is the other one.
4. Wisconsin - I won't penalize anyone for the forced games off but when does it become too much?
5. Iowa - Coming together as a team and they have officially matched tOSU's current season win streak.
From here it could go in any order but do to the rules of the thread, have to put someone in each position.
6. Minnesota - Really by default because there are too many variables this year
7. Maryland - At least they don't have a losing record
8. Rutgers - They probably aren't this high but I think they are playing with more emotion and drive than anyone in the league.
9. Purdue - Looked strong early in the season then what happened?
10. Illinois - Still had a massive two game win streak before the cancelation.
11. MSU - best record of the rest and probably the most impressive win of the bottom half
12. PSU - Finally got their win over an impressive...
13. Michigan - One close game on the season and that was a loss to MSU. Remember the Rich Rod days?
14. Nebraska - Let's all clap for their performance so far.
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Wisconsin
4. Northwestern
5. Iowa
6. Maryland
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Rutgers
10. Michigan State
11. Penn State
12. Michigan
13. Illinois
14. Nebraska
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I don't think I remembered to do a set last week. Based on the Composite Massey rankings, there are really 4 tiers. So I used those, and then ranked within the tiers as best I could:
1- OSU
2 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Northwester, Iowa
3 - Minnesota, Maryland, MSU, Purdue, Michigan, PSU
4 - Nebraska, Rutgers, Illinois
- OHIO STATE - will the committee put a 5-0 Ohio State in?
- INDIANA - granted we'll see what they are without Penix. They looked plenty fine without him over the final 20 minutes Saturday
- IOWA - closer than I would have liked, but I think they'd be undefeated with a restart
- WISCONSIN - how the hell did they lose to Northwestern?
- NORTHWESTERN - based on results, I guess, but you simply can't fully rely on your defense being 100% lockdown every week
- MARYLAND - not good enough to fail to finish drives as consistently as they did Saturday
- MICHIGAN STATE - who knows, two top 15 wins, a bad loss loss, two blowout losses
- PENN STATE - looked like a team having a disappointing season, who still had fight
- MICHIGAN - they did not
- MINNESOTA - having your best player opt out, opt back in, then opt back out once things weren't going well is not a great look
- PURDUE - in fairness, if you just keep guessing they aren't going QB draw up the middle, eventually you'll be right...right?
- ILLINOIS - I'm not sure I believe this, but they beat both of the other basement teams
- RUTGERS - got a W, but if that's what you are going to rely on, not sure it's generally going to work
- NEBRASKA - feels wrong, but whatever, Illinois housed them, so here we are
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Indiana lost their QB
Wisconsin should be well rested
Heard Michigan might be next with COVID
wonder if OSU can stave off the spread of the virus to resume this week
season of COVIDshittery
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So if we simply went by relative performance against opponents it would be:
I like it.............
1 Ohio State
2 Iowa
3 Wisconsin
4 Indiana
5 Northwestern
6 Purdue
7 Maryland
8 Rutgers
9 Penn State
10 Minnesota
11 Illinois
12 Nebraska
13 Michigan
14 Michigan State
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Average of 3.40:
- Purdue: First of six against IA (1.0), third of six against NU (3.0), third of five against IL (3.5), fourth of five against MN (4.5), fifth of six against RU (5.0).
What's more interesting to me as a Purdue fan is the trend line...
Their 5 games in order:
1 --> 3.5 --> 3.0 --> 4.5 --> 5.0
Is that meaningful that they're getting worse relative to rest-of-conference performances as the season goes on? Is there a simple explanation for it such as perhaps MN/RU having a more difficult slate than IA/NU?
I don't know, but it does seem like there's a trend here, and it's not a good one.
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Heard Michigan might be next with COVID
wonder if OSU can stave off the spread of the virus to resume this week
Between these two factors I think that the chances of Ohio State getting the six games necessary to be eligible for the CG are minimal.
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I suspect that they might revise that stipulation on the fly, as riveting as a CCG might be between a Northwestern team that lost to MSU and an Indiana team with no Penix.
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there will be no throwing Buckeye weight around with the new Commish!
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We'll see.
This conference has one NC contender, and the rest is just a beefed up version of the Mac; a bunch of teams that are even worse than Northwestern and Indiana.
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So if we simply went by relative performance against opponents it would be:
I like it.............
1 Ohio State
2 Iowa
3 Wisconsin
4 Indiana
5 Northwestern
6 Purdue
7 Maryland
8 Rutgers
9 Penn State
10 Minnesota
11 Illinois
12 Nebraska
13 Michigan
14 Michigan State
So, do I treat this as your vote?
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Iowa
4. Northwestern
5. Wisconsin
6. Purdue
7. Penn State
8. Michigan State
9. Illinois
10. Maryland
11. Nebraska
12. Minnesota
13. Michigan
14. Rutgers
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What's more interesting to me as a Purdue fan is the trend line...
Their 5 games in order:
1 --> 3.5 --> 3.0 --> 4.5 --> 5.0
Is that meaningful that they're getting worse relative to rest-of-conference performances as the season goes on? Is there a simple explanation for it such as perhaps MN/RU having a more difficult slate than IA/NU?
I don't know, but it does seem like there's a trend here, and it's not a good one.
I haven't watched enough Purdue games to know if there are obvious reasons. Have they had a bunch of guys out the last couple weeks?
Chronological for Purdue:
- 4 point win over Iowa: Better than NU, UNL, PSU, MN, and MSU
- 7 point win over IL: Worse than UW and MN. Better than UNL and RU.
- Off due to UW cancelling due to COVID
- 7 point loss to NU: Worse than MSU, IA. Better than UNL, UW, and UMD.
- 3 point loss to MN: Worse than IA, M, and UMD. Better than IL.
- 7 point loss to RU: Worse than tOSU, IU, M, and IL. Better than MSU.
Not sure what to make of that. Being worse, the last few weeks than MSU, M, UMD, and IL is concerning for sure.
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Looking at last week's rankings and what happened is just weird:
- Ohio State: DNP due to COVID
- Northwestern lost by 9 to #13/14 MSU
- Indiana won by 16 over #7 UMD
- Wisconsin DNP due to COVID
- Iowa won by 6 over #12 UNL
- Purdue lost by 7 to #11 RU
- Maryland lost by 16 to #3 IU
- Minnesota DNP due to COVID
- Illinois DNP due to COVID
- Michigan lost by 10 to #13/14 PSU
- Rutgers won by 7 over #6 PU
- Nebraska lost by 6 to #5 IA
- (tie) Penn State won by 10 over #10 M
- (tie) Michigan State won by 9 over #2 NU
PSU and MSU were tied for dead last in our rankings then went out and convincingly beat #10 Michigan and #2 Northwestern respectively. In addition, #11 Rutgers beat #6 PU by a TD meaning that three of the five games played resulted in the lower ranked team winning. #5 Iowa at least won their game over #12 Nebraska but didn't look very impressive beating Nebraska by six at home when you consider that the only team to do worse than that against Nebraska was Penn State. The only higher ranked team to perform somewhere close to expectations was #3 Indiana who beat #7 Maryland by 16. That really impressed me because I wouldn't have been surprised to see the Hoosiers look pretty weak after coming up just short last week.
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- Ohio State: Basically until proven otherwise.
- Iowa: I don't know what it is with Ferentz and the slow starts but right now I think the Hawkeyes are better than anyone below them.
- Wisconsin: It is hard to tell with only three games to look at but this feels right for now.
- Indiana: The Hoosiers avoided the let down game.
- Northwestern: The Wildcats looked horrible against MSU but they still own wins over my #2, #3, #7, #9, and #11.
- Penn State: I still think the Nittany Lions are better than their record and I think they'll prove me right by winning out (@RU, vMSU).
- Maryland: They aren't good, but they are better than the rest. I realize that they beat PSU by 16 in Happy Valley, but if they played again tomorrow I think it would look quite different.
- Rutgers: Oh so close to so much more. They lost to IL by a FG and to M in OT. They are thisclose to 4-2. Schiano has this program headed in the right direction.
- Purdue: That they could lose three straight and still be #9 is impressive. Their trajectory, however, is not.
- Illinois: Suddenly their season-ending game against Northwestern doesn't look so impossible anymore.
- Nebraska: I'd have put them at #10 but that blowout home loss just stings.
- Michigan: The Wolverines have WAY too much talent to be ranked in the bottom third of the conference.
- Minnesota: I'm not sure what to make of this team. They beat PU and blew out IL but they also lost to UMD and got blown out by IA and M.
- Michigan State: This is another team that is hard to figure out. The win over NU looks great and beating M is never a bad thing but they also got annihilated by IA and IU and lost by two scores to RU.
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I haven't watched enough Purdue games to know if there are obvious reasons. Have they had a bunch of guys out the last couple weeks?
Chronological for Purdue:
- 4 point win over Iowa: Better than NU, UNL, PSU, MN, and MSU
- 7 point win over IL: Worse than UW and MN. Better than UNL and RU.
- Off due to UW cancelling due to COVID
- 7 point loss to NU: Worse than MSU, IA. Better than UNL, UW, and UMD.
- 3 point loss to MN: Worse than IA, M, and UMD. Better than IL.
- 7 point loss to RU: Worse than tOSU, IU, M, and IL. Better than MSU.
Not sure what to make of that. Being worse, the last few weeks than MSU, M, UMD, and IL is concerning for sure.
There was a QB change. Aidan O'Connell was playing through something against Northwestern, and then for MN and RU they brought in Jack Plummer.
Other than that, Rondale started the season out of commission, and came back for MN and RU. George Karlaftis missed a few games due to injury and now is out 21 days for COVID just as he was coming back. One the really hurt was Derrick Barnes getting ejected for hitting with the crown of the helmet early in the second half against RU--that killed our defense when we wanted to mount a comeback and he'll be out the first half Saturday.
But overall, it's just weird. You never know what you're going to get from this team. Every game decided within 1 score, against wildly different levels of competition.
Maybe, to be honest, Iowa is the outlier. It was the first game of the season for both teams, both with a little rust on them, and Iowa isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse. Iowa got better as the year went on, and Purdue just stayed the same?
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Maybe, to be honest, Iowa is the outlier. It was the first game of the season for both teams, both with a little rust on them, and Iowa isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse. Iowa got better as the year went on, and Purdue just stayed the same?
That seems like the most likely answer. Purdue was within +/- one score of those other four teams and now that NU lost to MSU it doesn't seem unreasonable for them to be +/- one score of each of them.
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1 Iowa
2 Wisconsin
3 Indiana
4 Northwestern
5 Penn State
6 Maryland
7 Illinois
8 Nebraska
9 RutgerSs
10 Boilermaker
11 Michigan tate
n/a 1 Ohio State
n/a 2 Michigan
n/a 3 Minnesota
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1 Iowa
2 Wisconsin
3 Indiana
4 Northwestern
5 Penn State
6 Maryland
7 Illinois
8 Nebraska
9 RutgerSs
10 Boilermaker
11 Michigan tate
n/a 1 Ohio State
n/a 2 Michigan
n/a 3 Minnesota
You gave Rutger its "s" make, and also gave them Michigan State's capital "S"??
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No, they got Michigan State's capital S, and they got the lowercase s from the Boilermakers.
Collecting Ses and kicking asses.
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Crystal clear.
I cannot do rankings this week. I did not watch a single game to have any input.
I'd probably have Michigan dead last and Ohio State first. That is all I know.
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at least you are honest
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I only have 11 votes so far. The last two weeks I had 15 each week. Who is missing?
847badger usually votes, said above he wasn't this week.
@iahawk15 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=874)
@NorthernOhioBuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=40)
@HawkFrenzy (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=66)
@fezzador (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=44)
@SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51)
@TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8)
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1) Ohio State
2) Indiana
3) Northwestern
4) Wisconsin
5) Iowa
6) Maryland
7) Purdue
8) Rutgers
9) Penn State
10) Michigan
11) Nebraska
12) Illinois
13) Minnesota
14) Michigan State
The B1G is a B1G mess. The top 5 teams are clearly ahead of the bottom 9. #14 is capable of knocking off anyone from #6-13, and the way this season is playing out, it may end up being that the only loss any of the Top 5 teams has suffered to a Bottom 9 team is Iowa dropping the season opener to Purdue (which I'm sure they'd love to have back).
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The B1G is a B1G mess. The top 5 teams are clearly ahead of the bottom 9. #14 is capable of knocking off anyone from #6-13, and the way this season is playing out, it may end up being that the only loss any of the Top 5 teams has suffered to a Bottom 9 team is Iowa dropping the season opener to Purdue (which I'm sure they'd love to have back).
I'm pretty sure your #3 just lost to your #14. It is my #5 and #14 so not criticizing your rankings just you overlooked that.
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1 Ohio State
2 Wisconsin
3 Indiana
4 Northwestern
5 Iowa
6 Purdue
7 Maryland
8 Penn State
9 Rutgers
10 Illinois
11 Minnesota
12 Nebraska
13 Michigan
14 Michigan State
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Ty still hasn't forgiven Sparty for '15
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Ty still hasn't forgiven Sparty for '15
LoL, I haven't either but that doesn't have anything to do with us both voting them #14 this week. Note that @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) and @fezzador (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=44) also voted them #14.
I guess it depends on how you look at them. Their wins over NU and M look good but their losses were horrible.
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#14??
who cares?
8-14 are pretty interchangeable
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LoL, I haven't either but that doesn't have anything to do with us both voting them #14 this week. Note that @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) and @fezzador (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=44) also voted them #14.
I guess it depends on how you look at them. Their wins over NU and M look good but their losses were horrible.
Still there has to be a little sumptin' in the win column.So Fezz/Fearless/Ty/MB the mount rushmore of the thread :D HATERS
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Results posted, votes through @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) , 13 voters.
This is the strangest version that I have ever seen of our power rankings and I've been compiling it for probably close to a decade.
Michigan is dead last and, as an Ohio State fan, I could spend time gloating about that but I will not. Instead, I'll dig them out of it a little bit. Half of the teams in our conference currently have votes for last place:
- 1 vote for PSU
- 1 vote for RU
- 2 votes for MN
- 1 vote for IL
- 4 votes for MSU
- 3 votes for UNL
- 1 vote for M
Only one voter ( @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) ) actually voted the Wolverines at #14. It is hardly a consensus and MSU, UNL, and MN each have more last place votes than the Wolverines.
I don't think I've ever seen one of our Power Rankings with so little agreement at the bottom. Two major Helmet teams (UNL and M) from back when I was in school are last and second to last but note that even combined they have less than half of the votes for the last two spots.
If you look at the vote distribution chart you can see what is going on here. There are only two things that at least half of us agree upon:
- 12 of 13 of us agree that tOSU is #1 (and the disagreement is from @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) who basically takes quarantined teams out of his rankings so for all practical purposes it is unanimous).
- 8 of 13 of us agree that IU is #2.
That is it.
The least disagreement is on #10. No team has more than three votes and half the teams in the conference have at least one vote. No team has more than five votes for any spot between #8 and #12. We just don't know.
There is very strong agreement that there is a top-5 and a bottom-9 and there is pretty strong agreement on the order of the top-4. The bottom eight, however, are all within +/-4 of one another. Even the gap all the way from #6 UMD to #14 M isn't all that big and would anybody be really shocked if Michigan beat Maryland?
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as OrangeMan would say, "It's a shit show!"
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@bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) :
You might be the only stats-minded person other than me to appreciate this. If you look at Ohio State's column in the schedule/performance chart, it is actually exactly as it theoretically "should" be. That almost never happens but here it is this week:
(https://i.imgur.com/edY74DV.png)
The Buckeyes:
- Beat #2 IU by 7
- Beat #8 PSU by 13
- Beat #9 RU by 22
- Beat #13 UNL by 35
In theory, each teams' column should have any losses at the top running from biggest losses down to closest losses followed by wins running from closest wins at the top to biggest wins at the bottom but, like I said, that almost never actually happens.
Here is your team and more on that outlier question we discussed earlier:
(https://i.imgur.com/VysqxRb.png)
So the Boilermakers:
- Beat #4 by 4
- Lost to #5 by 7
- Lost to #9 by 7
- Lost to #10 by 3
- Beat #11 by 7
The result against #4, Iowa is clearly the outlier. To double-check that, here is Iowa's column:
(https://i.imgur.com/7DvkaBQ.png)
So the Hawkeyes:
- Lost to #5 by 1
- Lost to #7 by 4
- Beat #8 by 20
- Beat #10 by 28
- Beat #12 by 42
- Beat #13 by 6
There are two outliers for Iowa. The game against #7 Purdue looks like it should have been a win and the game against #13 Nebraska should have been a blowout not a come-from-behind dogfight that wasn't finally secured until Nebraska's QB fumbled with just over two minutes remaining.
Each other team with outliers in bold:
#2 Indiana:
- Lost to #1 tOSU by 7
- Beat #6 UMD by 16
- Beat #8 PSU in OT
- Beat #9 RU by 16
- Beat #12 MSU by 24
- Beat #14 M by 17
Interesting that IU "underperformed" against M and PSU.
#3 Wisconsin:
- Lost to #5 NU by 10
- Beat #11 IL by 38
- Beat #14 M by 38
No outliers but only three games so that isn't too unusual.
#5 Northwestern:
- Beat #3 UW by 10
- Beat #4 IA by 1
- Beat #6 UMD by 40
- Beat #7 PU by 7
- Lost to #12 MSU by 9
- Beat #13 UNL by 8
There really isn't even a trend here, it is like every game is an outlier.
#6 Maryland:
- Lost to #2 IU by 16
- Lost to #5 NU by 40
- Beat #8 PSU by 16
- Beat #10 MN in OT
Like NU, there isn't much of a trend here other than two losses then two wins but both the losses and the wins are flipped from what they theoretically should be.
#8 Penn State:
- Lost to #1 tOSU by 13
- Lost to #2 IU in OT
- Lost to #4 IA by 20
- Lost to #6 UMD by 16
- Lost to #13 UNL by 7
- Beat #14 M by 10
It is like they were a totally different team for those first two games.
#9 RU:
- Lost to #1 tOSU by 22
- Lost to #2 IU by 16
- Beat #7 PU by 7
- Lost to #11 IL by 3
- Beat #12 MSU by 11
- Lost to #14 M in OT
Nothing to say here.
#10 MN:
- Lost to #4 IA by 28
- Lost to #6 UMD in OT
- Beat #7 PU by 3
- Beat #11 IL by 27
- Lost to #14 M by 25
Their loss to M is a major outlier. In theory it "should" have been a blowout win.
#11 IL:
- Lost to #3 UW by 38
- Lost to #7 PU by 7
- Beat #9 RU by 3
- Lost to #10 MN by 27
- Beat #13 UNL by 18
Not sure what happened to the Illini against MN.
#12 MSU:
- Lost to #2 IU by 24
- Lost to #4 IA by 42
- Beat #5 NU by 9
- Lost to #9 RU by 11
- Beat #14 M by 3
You could make a case for either IU or IA as the outlier. Either the IU loss "should" have been worse or the IA loss "should" have been closer. The win over NU, however, is an outlier no matter how you slice it.
#13 UNL:
- Lost to #1 tOSU by 35
- Lost to #4 IA by 6
- Lost to #5 NU by 8
- Beat #8 PSU by 7
- Lost to #11 IL by 18
Either the IA or NU loss it technically an outlier because in theory the NU loss should have been closer than the IA loss but that is only two points so I'm not going to quibble over it. The IL loss is just strange though.
#14 M:
- Lost to #2 IU by 17
- Lost to #3 UW by 38
- Lost to #8 PSU by 10
- Beat #9 RU in OT
- Beat #10 MN by 25
- Lost to #12 MSU by 3
You could argue either the IU or UW games was an outlier. I just picked UW. The MSU loss is just off the charts though.
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1) Ohio State
2) Indiana
3) Wisconsin
4) Northwestern
--- The Island of Misfit Quarterbacks ---
5) Iowa
--- Drawing names out of a hat ---
6) Penn State
7) Minnesota
8) Maryland
9) Purdue
10) Illinois
11) Rutgers
12) Nebraska
13) Michigan State
14) Michigan
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Ty still hasn't forgiven Sparty for '15
ehh, I "mailed" my votes in. Buckeyes didn't play, I didn't watch much ball. (Really only watched the Vanderbilt game with my girls.)
I forgot or didn't take into account the Northwestern win, and if I had a redo that prolly would have pulled sparty out of the cellar.
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FWIW:
I added in the vote from @iahawk15 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=874) . I'm not going to do a new compilation but the totals used going forward include his vote. The only change was that NU is now ahead of Iowa in both the raw and after removing the high and low.
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ehh, I "mailed" my votes in. Buckeyes didn't play, I didn't watch much ball. (Really only watched the Vanderbilt game with my girls.)
I forgot or didn't take into account the Northwestern win, and if I had a redo that prolly would have pulled sparty out of the cellar.
It wasn't a wildly out of line vote at all. MSU had two other votes for last place.
It is hard to decide on that because there are eight teams in the league below .500 and with two or less wins:
- 2-3 MSU
- 2-3 MN
- 2-3 PU
- 2-3 IL
- 2-4 M
- 2-4 RU
- 1-4 UNL
- 1-5 PSU
There are no winless teams and frankly there is an argument for any of those eight at last place.
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Massey Composite rankings going into this weekend
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- OHIO STATE
- Cincinnati
- Florida
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Iowa State
- INDIANA
- Miami
- WISCONSIN
- Coastal Carolina
- NORTHWESTERN
- Oregon
- USC
- Marshall
- Washington
- Oklahoma State
- IOWA
- UL Lafayette
- North Carolina
- Texas
- 60. Minnesota
- 66. Purdue
- 67. Michigan
- 68. Maryland
- 70. Michigan State
- 71. Penn State
- 84. Nebraska
- 87. Rutgers
- 88. Illinois
So that still keeps with kind of how I was thinking. OSU has to be #1; Indiana, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa have to be 2-5 in some order; Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, Michigan State and Penn State have to be 6-11 in some order; and Nebraska, Rutgers and Illinois have to be 12-14 in some order
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Last week Medina was busting chops for not putting MSU last, now he is busting chops for putting MSU last. Make up your mind. :111:
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We know that Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, and Maryland are not playing this weekend due to COVID outbreaks in Minneapolis and Ann Arbor. If all other games are played as scheduled then after this weekend our 14 teams will have played the following number of games each:
- Seven games; four teams: IU, RU, PSU, IA
- Six games; six teams: MSU, M, NU, PU, IL, UNL
- Five games; two teams: tOSU, MN
- Four games; two teams: UMD, UW
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We know that Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, and Maryland are not playing this weekend due to COVID outbreaks in Minneapolis and Ann Arbor. If all other games are played as scheduled then after this weekend our 14 teams will have played the following number of games each:
- Seven games; four teams: IU, RU, PSU, IA
- Six games; six teams: MSU, M, NU, PU, IL, UNL
- Five games; two teams: tOSU, MN
- Four games; two teams: UMD, UW
That's an average of 5.85 games/team.
Which means that by the "round up" rule, even if every game in the final week prior to champions week were cancelled, OSU/MN/MD/UW would be ineligible for the CCG.
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That's an average of 5.85 games/team.
Which means that by the "round up" rule, even if every game in the final week prior to champions week were cancelled, OSU/MN/MD/UW would be ineligible for the CCG.
A couple points:
I think the "round up" rule applies after the issue of whether or not the average "dropped below six". Ie, 5.85 IS less than six so if every final week game got cancelled the "no less than two fewer" language WOULD be invoked. The average would be 5.85 which rounds up to six meaning that any team that played at least four games would be eligible
Second, Ohio State and Minnesota could still be eligible even if the six game minimum applies as both will have played five games after this weekend (assuming tOSU/MSU happens). Thus, if they also play next weekend (tOSU is scheduled to host M while MN is scheduled to visit UNL) they would have six games and be eligible.
Third, in the case of MN, UMD, and UW it is (probably) irrelevant because none of them are in the running for their division championships anyway. Assuming the rules are not changed, Northwestern has already clinched the B1G-W and Ohio State will represent the B1G-E in Indy unless they do not win anymore games.