CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 25, 2020, 12:45:42 AM
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Link to last week (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-preseason-17631/).
Raw votes:
(https://i.imgur.com/Iv3AbPN.png)
Drop the highest and lowest vote for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/BkCDIZd.png)
Visual representation with changes so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/2QhJhUb.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/fd1gbuy.jpg)
Change from preseason (I call this the COTY chart):
(https://i.imgur.com/RH2k0mW.jpg)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/KxB8Bej.png)
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1 Ohio State
2 Wisconsin
3 Michigan
4 Indiana
5 Penn State
6 Minnesota
7 Purdue
8 Iowa
9 Nebraska
10 Northwestern
11 Illinois
12 Rutgers
13 Maryland
14 Michigan tate (Rutgers took their "S" after handing them their ass)
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Indiana
5. Northwestern
6. Rutgers
7. Purdue
8. Penn State
9. Minnesota
10. Iowa
11. Nebraska
12. Illinois
13. Michigan State
14. Maryland
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1. Ohio State: Not the most inspiring 52-17 victory I've seen, but it was still a 52-17 victory. Highlights are the passing game - Fields was lights out throwing and the receiver group is as strong as ever. Question marks are the running game, which finished with 215 yards but looked pretty rough early on. Also rough early on, the defense. They settled down, but man had some flashbacks to 2018. In any event, for a first game it was fine, but they will need to tighten up some things before heading to Penn State.
2. Wisconsin: A dominant effort by the Badgers, who now have a legit quarterback for the first time in a while. The defense was smothering, Mertz was dealing, and the only question mark was the running game, which struggled a bit to open things up for their no-name-so-far backs.
3. Michigan: Good looking game against the shorthanded Gophers. The offense was the real story - they were effective running and passing, and should have had even more points if they could kick a field goal. The defense was just fine, not dominant but they were overall very effective.
4. Penn State: Yes, they lost. The Penix was just a bit too long for them. But otherwise they dominated the game. The Hoosiers finished with 211 yards in a game that went to overtime. Turnovers, missed field goals, and general dumbness doomed the Lions, and this is a lot easier to fix week to week than lack of talent.
5. Indiana: Tough to place them. On one hand, they beat a top ten team. On the other, they looked like crap most of the game. Of course, looking like crap is a theme for most of these teams below them so I suppose it's not a reach to put them here.
6. Northwestern: Hey, why not. They beat the crap out of Maryland, and while everyone may do that, Northwestern is a team that can be pretty good if they play offense, which I hear they may try to do this year.
7. Purdue: I saw none of their game and only heard that both teams looked like garbage. But they were less stinky than the Hawkeyes.
8. Iowa: A disappointing start, though their box score stats don't look too bad so not sure how they only mustered 20 points. There is hope, I suppose.
9. Minnesota: Maybe too far a drop. They looked pretty moribund on defense, and probably made Michigan look better than they are. But they were also short handed and had no specialists or much of their offensive line, so I should probably cut them a break. Will look again when they are healthy.
10. Nebraska: Showed a lot of spirit for most of the game, and clearly enjoyed trying to separate OSU players from their heads, but lack of talent doomed them from the start. The lack of receiving options on this team is strange, but they do have some playmakers back there, especially the newest McCaffery, so maybe they will find more space against other teams.
11. Rutgers: Victory!
12. Illinois: No victory.
13. Michigan State: Sad no victory
14. Maryland: blech
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Northwestern
5. Indiana
6. Purdue
7. Penn State
8. Iowa
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Illinois
12. Rutgers
13. Michigan State
14. Maryland
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Last week in parenthesis
- OHIO STATE (1) - sluggish start, but then looked the part
- WISCONSIN (3) - "he'd never admit it, but Coan's injury makes things a little easier on the coaching staff to just roll with Mertz" - me, in these rankings last week
- MICHIGAN (5) - offensive line absolutely bullied Minnesota
- INDIANA (7) - not sure they deserve to be above PSU, but I'll pull the trigger for now
- PENN STATE (2) - Big Ten title dreams could be dead
- MINNESOTA (4) - the defense looked absolutely atrocious
- PURDUE (10) - continue to stymie Iowa
- IOWA (6) - at least they know they have a quarterback
- NEBRASKA (8) - looked pretty solid for about a half
- NORTHWESTERN (12) - Indiana transfer QB > Clemson transfer QB
- ILLINOIS (11) - they didn't look good, but Wisconsin ain't Rutgers or Northwestern
- RUTGERS (14) - Schiano is back baby!
- MICHIGAN STATE (9) - I didn't see any way I wouldn't have Michigan State #14...
- MARYLAND (13) - ...until I saw Maryland get blasted by 42 by Northwestern
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Top of the Conference - Any one of these could move up or down in this group.
1. Ohio State - Slow start, but woke up in time to cover. Stay at the top until someone knocks them off.
2. Wisconsin - Didn't get a chance to watch the game, but stats look impressive.
3. Michigan - I saw some of this game and they looked pretty stout against the Golphers
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These teams all fall a little below the top three at this point in time
4. Penn State - As another poster mentioned, they kind of shot themselves in the foot. They can clean that up. Still very dangerous.
5. Northwestern - Another game that I didn't see, but they have always played good def. If they can play some offense, they might be a team to contend with.
6. Minnesota - Not sure they deserve to be this high, but I cannot realistically think they shouldn't beat anyone below them on a neutral field.
7. Indiana - Probably a little high, but got to give them credit for winning against PSU.
8. Nebraska - They held their own early against Ohio State. They could give a lot of teams some fits this season.
9. Purdue - Made the most of what they had on the field. It may not have been pretty, but they did what they needed to do.
10. Iowa - Not sure what to make of them at this point.
11. Rutgers - Great win for them away from home. They make a little noise this year and not finish in the basement.
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These teams are simply dead in the water at this point.
12. Michigan State - Best of the rest. Statistically they dominated Rutgers. Have to clean up their turnovers.
13. Illinois - No signs of life Friday night.
14. Maryland - Out Rutgering Rutgers.
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- Ohio State: They have some things to lock down but generally looked the part.
- Wisconsin: See above.
- Michigan: Maybe not if Minnesota sucks, but for now.
- Penn State: Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda.
- Northwestern: If they have an offense they could be a serious contender.
- Indiana: Last week I said: "It feels like Indiana is perpetually just on the cusp of some REALLY big wins but they never quite get there. Maybe this year?" and then I noted that: "They catch a PSU team with good reason to be looking ahead to tOSU the following weekend." The Hoosiers finally got their big upset after so many close calls but the weird thing is that they looked worse in this win than they have looked in a lot of those close calls where they didn't get the win. Sometimes it is just better to be lucky than good!
- Purdue: If they can beat Iowa without their HC and best player . . .
- Iowa: Iowa is not unfamiliar with slow starts.
- Minnesota: Maybe Michigan is that good?
- Nebraska: They held their own with the Buckeyes for a while . . .
- Rutgers: They were obviously helped by MSU's inability to hang onto the ball but still that was a conference road win!
- Illinois: That wasn't pretty but the opponent was #2.
- Michigan State: If they can hang onto the ball they should be able to win a game.
- Maryland: The caveat here is that maybe NU's new offense is just that good and/or the lack of film played a big role?
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Penn State
5. Northwestern
6. Indiana
7. Purdue
8. Iowa
9. Minnesota
10. Rutgers
11. Nebraska
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Michigan State
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If Mertz is a no go, UW is not #2 here.
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1 Ohio St
2 Wisconsin
3 Michigan
4 Penn St
5 Indiana
6 Minnesota
7 Purdue
8 Iowa
9 Michigan St
10 Northwestern
11 Nebraska
12 Illinois
13 Maryland
14 Rutgers
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If Mertz is a no go, UW is not #2 here.
Mertz will be back
this is what Husker247 Wisconsin reporter Evan Flood tweeted this Sunday night, "Obviously don't know how anyone reacts to their first-ever start, but Chase Wolf has the talent to win at this level IMO...if it comes to that."
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OSU
Wisconsin
Indiana
Michigan
Purdue
PSU
Northwestern
Nebraska
Iowa
Rutgers
Minnesota
Illinois
MSU
Maryland
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1) Ohio State: until someone proves different.
2) Wisconsin: but not if Mertz has to miss 2-3 weeks.
3) Michigan: put the hurt on those Gophers.
4) ... who knows?
....
ok, here it goes
4) Penn State: yes, the Nittany Lions lost, but no, nothing about that game tells me that Indiana is a qualitatively better team. If this were in the middle of a season in which an 8-1 PSU, having lost to Michigan or OSU, lost to a 4-4 Indiana, we would all just call it one of those days. Frankly, looking at the stat lines, it looks like one of those days. So this isn't a big endorsement for Penn State, but, yeah, I think this is where they belong. But it could just be the helmet.
5) Indiana: because as much as I think the Hoosiers were lucky to get out with the win, they did get out with a win.
6) Purdue? Why not. It was a win, against a team that ordinarily has more than just a pulse.
7) Northwestern? A big win against a team that no one would be shocked if it were crap. But sometimes Northwestern can be pretty good. Maybe this is that year?
So now we're on to the tallest midget. Actually, Penn State already won that competition, so we're looking at second place in a beauty contest... (no, Rutgers doesn't count...not yet)
8) Iowa: on the strength of past performance.
9) Minnesota: on the strength of not being the teams below them.
10) Rutgers: yay, a win! Is Schiano to Rutgers as Snyder was to K-State?
11) Nebraska: scored double digits against the Buckeyes.
12) Illinois: stopped the run pretty good, all thinks considered.
13) Maryland: smoked by Northwestern isn't a good way to start a season.
14) Michigan State: the 2020 of the B1G's 2020 start. Losing to Rutgers is no way to get through life, Sparty.
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And yeah, if Mertz is out--and it's looking that way--Wolf isn't a high school quarterback. But he's also not Mertz. He's the #3 QB on the depth chart. I wouldn't expect the Badgers to fall to Sparty territory, but calling them #2 in the league with Wolf seems like a stretch.
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If this were in the middle of a season in which an 8-1 PSU, having lost to Michigan or OSU, lost to a 4-4 Indiana, we would all just call it one of those days.
In that case it would be understandable, but it's a little surprising that with only one data point for any of us to work with so many posters are ranking the Leos over the Hoosiers.
It may well turn out that way, but for now all we have to go on is their head to head match up.
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In that case it would be understandable, but it's a little surprising that with only one data point for any of us to work with so many posters are ranking the Leos over the Hoosiers.
It may well turn out that way, but for now all we have to go on is their head to head match up.
A majority of us ranked PSU ahead of IU despite IU's H2H win. So far there are 11 voters. Five have IU ranked higher:
- You have IU higher by one spot (#4 and #5)
- Temp has IU higher by four spots (#4 and #8)
- Badger has IU higher by two spots (#5 and #7)
- ELA has IU higher by one spot (#4 and #5)
- Benthere has IU higher by three spots (#3 and #6)
Six of us have PSU ranked higher:
- Max has PSU one spot higher (#4 and #5)
- NOB has PSU three spots higher (#4 and #7)
- I have PSU two spots higher (#4 and #6)
- LetsGoPeay has PSU two spots higher (#4 and #6) and he is an IU guy if I'm not mistaken
- Fearless has PSU one spot higher (#4 and #5)
- SFBadger has PSU one spot higher (#4 and #5)
I do not think it is surprising AT ALL that most of us have PSU ranked higher than IU for two reasons.
First, I disagree with your assertion that "for now all we have to go on is their head to head match up." We can also use our preseason assumptions, recruiting rankings over the past few years, success over the past few years and any number of other factors. I understand and generally concur with the objection to using those things AFTER we have most of a season of actual on-field results but failing to use those things after just one game has been played is a mistake IMHO because crazy things happen and we all know that the better team does not always win. Maybe IU is better than PSU but, IMHO, at this point it is far more likely that this was just an upset, they happen. In all honesty, as a Buckeye fan like me, would you be more worried about tOSU @IU than you would about tOSU @ PSU? If you say yes, I think you are nuts.
Second even if I agreed that all we had to go on was that one game, PSU had more rushing yards (250 - 41), more passing yards (238 - 170), had more first downs (27 - 16), had more ToP by more than double (40:25 - 19:35), and outgained IU by more than double (488 - 211). They lost because they lost the turnover battle 3-2, missed two FG's (47 and 57 yards), had a few bad breaks, and gave up a 2 point conversion in OT that was as close of a call as you will ever see.
Thus, even looking ONLY at that one game, I think PSU would be a tougher opponent on a neutral field tomorrow than IU.
The votes that I really don't understand are the three voters that have IU more than one spot higher then PSU. Why? What about IU's close-as-close-can-be win over PSU makes anyone think that there is room for up to three teams (out of Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue, and Rutgers) between them? That is baffling to me.
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I could not in good conscious rank a winless Penn State higher than Rutgers or any of the other undefeated teams. I ranked Penn State higher than all the other winless teams.
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Results posted, votes through @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) , 11 voters.
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I could not in good conscious rank a winless Penn State higher than Rutgers or any of the other undefeated teams. I ranked Penn State higher than all the other winless teams.
Do you honestly believe that Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana would each be a tougher challenge for your Wolverines than Penn State?
If your answer is yes, I think you are lying. You know better.
If your answer is new, I think you voted wrong. It is a power ranking not a "who deserves it" poll. The fundamental basis of it, I think, should be which team do I think would win on a neutral field if they played tomorrow?"
On a neutral field I would pick:
- Ohio State over any of the other 13 teams in the league,
- Wisconsin over any team not named Ohio State
- Michigan over any team not named Ohio State or Wisconsin
- . . .
- Maryland over nobody
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A lot of Illinois fans would probably wonder what the hell happened on Saturday afternoon, if you told them on Saturday morning that their average ranking would actually go up.
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A lot of Illinois fans would probably wonder what the hell happened on Saturday afternoon, if you told them on Saturday morning that their average ranking would actually go up.
Oddly, it had almost nothing to do with MSU/RU. That was pretty much a wash for IL and everybody else:
- MSU had been ahead of IL and their avg was down 3.36
- RU had been behind IL and their avg was up 2.92
The difference was Maryland looking abysmal against Northwestern:
- NU's avg was up 2.33 but they were already ahead of IL anyway so that had little-or-no impact on IL
- Maryland had been close to IL and their avg was down 1.17 so Illinois floated up on that. Basically most of us see getting blown out by UW as expected but getting blown out by NU is a different matter entirely.
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Not putting Michigan anywhere near the top 3 like some of y’all. They have lot more to prove.
Ohio State @ PSU is fascinating to me. That is a must win for Penn State. They lose that one at home at night, and their season is basically done.
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Not putting Michigan anywhere near the top 3 like some of y’all. They have lot more to prove.
Ohio State @ PSU is fascinating to me. That is a must win for Penn State. They lose that one at home at night, and their season is basically done.
Agreed, but I was thinking about this. Is winning the division less of a big deal this year since everybody gets a game? In a normal year, if tOSU and PSU tied for the B1G-E Championship and PSU won the tie, PSU goes to the B1GCG while tOSU watches on TV. This year PSU goes to the B1GCG but tOSU plays B1G-W #2 so it isn't as big of a drop.
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I've always viewed these as power rankings, not record rankings (I think it's even in the title of the thread). We don't need any opinions for the latter. Power rankings are much more subjective, so it's not at all surprising to see a lot of variation, particularly in week 1.
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covid is going to affect all teams at one point
whether its only a few kickers and a portion of your defense or your whole QB room
3 weeks out is a long time to be down but like losses I hear they are better at the beginning of the season then at the end
hats off to those teams that had more players get the virus early and have recovered fully and are able to play with less chance to catch it again (still waiting on more science to catch up on this topic)
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Do you honestly believe that Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana would each be a tougher challenge for your Wolverines than Penn State?
If your answer is yes, I think you are lying. You know better.
If your answer is new, I think you voted wrong. It is a power ranking not a "who deserves it" poll. The fundamental basis of it, I think, should be which team do I think would win on a neutral field if they played tomorrow?"
On a neutral field I would pick:
- Ohio State over any of the other 13 teams in the league,
- Wisconsin over any team not named Ohio State
- Michigan over any team not named Ohio State or Wisconsin
- . . .
- Maryland over nobody
this all assumes no injuries or COVID related absences- Wisconsin will have a chance this week to start a 3rd or 4th string QB and how many others might be lost( hell Mertz was congratulated by almost everyone on the team for his near perfect game)
I can say that the team Michigan beat up on Saturday night was not the same team that without COVID and injuries and opt outs would have played
But we are in a a weird world and COVID is/has affected some teams more than others and through the year could hit even OSU hard
Heck Michigans player threw up twice on the filed and the medical staff didnt pull him form the game (hope he tests negative or more players could be out)
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Heck Michigans player threw up twice on the filed and the medical staff didnt pull him form the game (hope he tests negative or more players could be out)
That one I don't get at all.
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1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Wisc
4. Mich
5. Indy
6. NW
7. Iowa
8. Minn
9. Pur
10. Neb
11. ILL
12. Rut
13. MSU
14. MD
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this all assumes no injuries or COVID related absences- Wisconsin will have a chance this week to start a 3rd or 4th string QB and how many others might be lost( hell Mertz was congratulated by almost everyone on the team for his near perfect game)
I can say that the team Michigan beat up on Saturday night was not the same team that without COVID and injuries and opt outs would have played
But we are in a a weird world and COVID is/has affected some teams more than others and through the year could hit even OSU hard
Heck Michigans player threw up twice on the filed and the medical staff didnt pull him form the game (hope he tests negative or more players could be out)
This is all true and I have no idea how I am going to adjust my Power Rankings for it. First off, I'm not even sure how it works, is the first positive test date day 1 or day zero? That could be the difference between three or four games out.
Wisconsin's next three games are:
- @ Nebraska on 10/31
- v Purdue on 11/7
- @ Michigan on 11/14
If half their starters are out and they go 0-3 through those then we could argue that they should be ranked something like #10-#12 based on that performance but if everybody comes back for their 11/21 game at Northwestern I'll still expect them to win in Evanston.
So I don't know how to handle it. If a bunch of UW starters are out then I think that, in theory, I should temporarily drop them an appropriate number of spots to reflect that reality then push them back up when they get those guys back even if they lost some games in the interim.
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I added in @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) 's vote. The order doesn't change and I'm not re-compiling but I will use the new totals for the charts going forward.
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1. OSU
2. Mich
3. Wisc
4. Indy
5. PSU
6. NW
7. Pur
8. Iowa
9. Minn
10. Neb
11. Rut
12. Illinois
13. MSU
14. Maryland
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Link to last week (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-preseason-17631/).
Raw votes:
[img width=477.619 height=213]https://i.imgur.com/Iv3AbPN.png[/img]
Drop the highest and lowest vote for each team:
[img width=477.619 height=213]https://i.imgur.com/BkCDIZd.png[/img]
Visual representation with changes so far this year:
It looks like Indiana is 4 and Penn St is 5 according to the data in the table, but they are listed in the reverse order. Very perplexing.
Which column is it sorted by?
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What's it look like now that it's the B13? I suppose most everyone (except Ohio State) moves up one.
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It looks like Indiana is 4 and Penn St is 5 according to the data in the table, but they are listed in the reverse order. Very perplexing.
Which column is it sorted by?
You are right, IU was #4 and PSU was #5 based on the raw votes when I posted the compilation but it was VERY close and I sort based on the second table, after removing the highest and lowest for each team.
When I posted there were 11 votes. IU had a high of #3, a low of #7, and an average of 4.91 while PSU had a high of #4, a low of #8, and an average of exactly 5.
Removing the high and low votes for each helped PSU relative to IU because it removed IU's #3 and PSU's #8. However, I apparently pasted the first table rather than the second so it looks screwy. Sorry about that.
@LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) fixed this issue for me by voting PSU #2 and IU #5. It is VERY close after adding his and @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) 's vote but:
- PSU is #4 with an average of 4.77 before dropping the high and low and 4.73 after.
- IU is #5 with an average of 4.85 before dropping the high and low and 4.82 after.
The difference, in both cases, is literally one spot:
- Penn State has one for #2, six for #4, three for #5, one for #6, one for #7, and one for #8, total of 62.
- Indiana has one for #3, four for #4, five for #5, two for #6, and one for #7, total of 63.
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What's it look like now that it's the B13? I suppose most everyone (except Ohio State) moves up one.
Yeah, who knows what to do with that. We always say "who would win on a neutral field tomorrow" and since UW can't play tomorrow (or Saturday) they aren't really eligible but I don't think we should eliminate them, just carry them along as what we think they are until we can learn more.
Where it gets really screwy is if a non-full-strength Wisconsin loses next weekend to a full-strength Purdue (as @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) suggested in another thread). Then what? Do we move Purdue up and Wisconsin down based on the result or leave them be on the assumption that a full-strength Wisconsin (when that reappears) would be better than a full-strength Purdue?