CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on November 27, 2017, 07:22:28 AM
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We have now seen every team's full body of work, except for Wisc vs. OSU, and I feel I finally have enough evidence to make some power rankings with some confidence
1. Wisc
I could be wromg, but Wisconsin just seems superior to any other team. An extremely strong defense that makes up for an average offense.
2. PSU
Only 2 losses are 2 close losses on the road to OSU and MSU. Had another close game in Iowa City, but strong performances in all other Big Ten games.
3. OSU
Maybe most talented team but seems to self destruct about once every 5 games. Blowout loss to Iowa I believe exposed some issues that can't be ignored.
4. MSU
Close wins vs PSU, Iowa, Mich. Close loss to NW. Blowout loss to OSU.
5. NW
This team now seems to be legit which was not always clear.
6. Iowa
The big difference between Iowa and Michigan is Iowa beat OSU and Michigan beat Purdue. Beating OSU is more impressive
7. Mich
No impressive victories. Best win is against Purdue
8. Purdue
Strong finish, but some bad losses earlier
9. Indy
Not quite good enough for a bowl
10. Neb
Feel like all teams from 10 to 13 just fell apart and gave up in their last 2 games, so this ranking is based more on what they did earlier
11. Rut
Some surprise victories but not a strong finish.
12. Minn
At least they have that big victory over Neb.
13. MD
Just awful down the stretch.
14. ILL
Just awful all year.
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1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Michigan
8. Purdue
9. Indiana
10. Minnesota
11. Nebraska
12. Rutgers
13. Maryland
14. Illinois
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Last week in parenthesis
1. WISCONSIN (1) - 3-0 (W - NW, IA, UM) (Bonus: +2)
2. OHIO STATE (3) - 3-1 (W - PSU, MSU, UM; L - IA) (Bonus: +1)
3. PENN STATE (2) - 3-2 (W - IA, NW, UM; L - OSU, MSU) (Bonus: +4)
4. MICHIGAN STATE (4) - 3-2 (W - IA, UM, PSU; L - NW, OSU)
5. NORTHWESTERN (5) - 2-2 (W - IA, MSU; L - UW, PSU) (Bonus: -1)
6. MICHIGAN (6) - 0-4 (L - MSU, PSU, UW, UM) (Bonus: -4)
7. IOWA (7) - 1-4 (W - OSU; L - PSU, MSU, NW, UW) (Bonus: -1 & Lost to a bottom 7 team)
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8. PURDUE (8) - 3-2 (W - MN, IL; L - RU, NEB) - Beat a top 7 team
9. NEBRASKA (9) - 3-1 (W - RU, IL, PU; L - MN)
10. MARYLAND (10) - 2-1 (W - MN, IN; L - RU)
11. INDIANA (11) - 2-2 (W - IL, RU; L - MD)
12. RUTGERS (12) - 3-2 (W - IL, PU, MD; L - NEB, IU)
13. MINNESOTA (13) - 2-2 (W - IL, NEB; L - MD, PU)
14. ILLINOIS (14) - 0-5 (L - NEB, RU, MN, PU, IU)
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1 Badgers
2 Buckeyes
3 Nittany Lions
4 Wildcats
5 Spartans
6 Hawkeyes
7 Wolverines
8 Boilermakers
9 Cornhuskers
10 Scarlet Knights
11 Terrapins
12 Hoosiers
13 Gophers
14 Fighting Illini
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1) Wisconsin
2) Ohio State
3) Penn State
4) Northwestern
5) Michigan State
6) Iowa
7) Michigan
8) Purdue
9) Indiana
10) Minnesota
11) Nebraska
12) Rutgers
13) Maryland
14) Illinois
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- Penn State: In my opinion this is the second consecutive year in which the B1G's best team is not playing in the B1GCG. Last year I thought the Buckeyes were the best but they lost close in Happy Valley. This year I think the Nittany Lions are the best but the lost close in both Columbus and East Lansing. Road games are hard and Penn State had four of them against top-7 opponents (tOSU, MSU, NU, IA). They managed 2-2 which is vastly better than any other team.
- Wisconsin: I'm going with the Badgers here because they haven't shown a really bad side.
- Ohio State: If you ignore the debacle in Iowa City then the Buckeyes would be a clear #1. I just can't do that yet, but if the Buckeyes look strong in Indianapolis they will obviously move to at least #2.
- Michigan State: The Spartans had a debacle of their own but they are still a strong team.
- Northwestern: Another year of starting weak and finishing strong.
- Michigan: 0-4 against the top-7 hurts them but at least they were 5-0 against the bottom-7.
- Iowa: Great games against Ohio State and Nebraska but other than that not so good.
- Purdue: I realize that they beat Iowa but they also lost to Rutgers and Nebraska.
- Nebraska: Welcome home Scott Frost!
- Maryland: What could have been.
- Indiana: Tough schedule but they still should have made a bowl.
- Rutgers: Great effort by the Scarlet Knights.
- Minnesota: One great game (UNL) does not erase the rest of the season.
- Illinois: Ouch.
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Purdue
8. Iowa
9. Nebraska
10. Rutgers
11. Indiana
12. Maryland
13. Illinois
14. Minnesota
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Purdue
8. Nebraska
9. Iowa
10. Rutgers
11. Indiana
12. Maryland
13. Illinois
14. Minnesota
Um... 56-14?
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Um... 56-14?
I fixed it. Cut and paste was my enemy.
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I like 847Badgers' list.....
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Purdue
8. Iowa
9. Nebraska
10. Rutgers
11. Indiana
12. Maryland
13. Illinois
14. Minnesota
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- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Northwestern
- Michigan State
- Michigan
- Iowa
- Purdue
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Rutgers
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Rutgers
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JWilly, I'm assuming that you meant RU #11 and ILL #14?
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JWilly, I'm assuming that you meant RU #11 and ILL #14?
Correct. Illinois has been so bad I just thought I'd skip them entirely maybe.
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Results:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| UW | 1.33 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.22 | 1 | (0.11) | 0 |
| tOSU | 2.00 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.11 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 |
| PSU | 2.67 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.78 | 3 | 0.11 | 0 |
| NU | 4.33 | 4 | 0.50 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4.89 | 5 | 0.56 | 1 |
| MSU | 4.67 | 5 | 0.50 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4.11 | 4 | (0.56) | -1 |
| M | 6.44 | 6 | 0.53 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6.11 | 6 | (0.33) | 0 |
| Iowa | 6.78 | 7 | 0.83 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 6.78 | 7 | - | 0 |
| PU | 7.78 | 8 | 0.44 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 8.11 | 8 | 0.33 | 0 |
| UNL | 9.67 | 9 | 0.87 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 9.67 | 9 | - | 0 |
| IU | 10.67 | 10 | 1.41 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 10.11 | 10 | (0.56) | 0 |
| RU | 11.11 | 11 | 0.93 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 12.11 | 12 | 1.00 | 1 |
| MD | 11.78 | 12 | 1.20 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 10.67 | 11 | (1.11) | -1 |
| MN | 12.00 | 13 | 1.87 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 12.33 | 13 | 0.33 | 0 |
| ILL | 13.78 | 14 | 0.44 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 14.00 | 14 | 0.22 | 0 |
SoS/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | UW | tOSU | PSU | NU | MSU | M | Iowa | PU | UNL | IU | RU | MD | MN | ILL | Team | . |
| 1 | UW | n/a | miss | miss | L by 9, A | miss | L by 14, A | L by 24, A | L by 8, A | L by 21, H | L by 28, H | miss | L by 25, A | L by 31, H | L by 14, H | UW | 1 |
| 2 | tOSU | miss | n/a | L by 1, A | miss | L by 45, A | L by 11, H | W by 31, H | miss | L by 42, H | L by 28, H | L by 56, H | L by 48, A | miss | L by 38, A | tOSU | 2 |
| 3 | PSU | miss | W by 1, H | n/a | L by 24, H | W by 3, H | L by 29, A | L by 2, H | miss | L by 12, A | L by 31, A | L by 29, A | L by 63, H | miss | miss | PSU | 3 |
| 4 | NU | W by 9, H | miss | W by 24, A | n/a | L in OT, A | miss | L in OT, A | L by 10, A | L in OT, H | miss | miss | L by 16, H | L by 39, A | L by 35, H | NU | 4 |
| 5 | MSU | miss | W by 45, H | L by 3, A | W in OT, H | n/a | L by 4, H | L by 7, A | miss | miss | L by 8, A | L by 33, H | L by 10, A | L by 3, H | miss | MSU | 5 |
| 6 | M | W by 14, H | W by 11, A | W by 29, H | miss | W by 4, A | n/a | miss | L by 18, H | miss | L in OT, H | L by 21, A | L by 25, H | L by 23, A | miss | M | 6 |
| 7 | Iowa | W by 24, H | L by 31, A | W by 2, A | W in OT, H | W by 7, H | miss | n/a | W by 9, A | L by 42, H | miss | miss | miss | L by 7, A | L by 29, A | Iowa | 7 |
| 8 | PU | W by 8, H | miss | miss | W by 10, H | miss | W by 18, A | L by 9, H | n/a | W by 1, A | L by 7, A | W by 2, H | miss | L by 14, A | L by 19, A | PU | 8 |
| 9 | UNL | W by 21, A | W by 42, A | W by 12, H | W in OT, A | miss | miss | W by 42, A | L by 1, H | n/a | miss | L by 10, A | miss | W by 33, H | L by 22, H | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | IU | W by 28, A | W by 28, A | W by 31, H | miss | W by 8, H | W in OT, A | miss | W by 7, H | miss | n/a | L by 41, A | W by 3, H | miss | L by 10, H | IU | 10 |
| 11 | RU | miss | W by 56, A | W by 29, H | miss | W by 33, A | W by 21, H | miss | L by 2, A | W by 10, H | W by 41, H | n/a | L by 7, H | miss | L by 11, H | RU | 11 |
| 12 | MD | W by 25, H | W by 48, H | W by 63, A | W by 16, A | W by 10, H | W by 25, A | miss | miss | miss | L by 3, A | W by 7, H | n/a | L by 7, H | miss | MD | 12 |
| 13 | MN | W by 31, A | miss | miss | W by 39, H | W by 3, A | W by 23, H | W by 7, H | W by 14, H | L by 33, A | miss | miss | W by 7, A | n/a | L by 7, A | MN | 13 |
| 14 | ILL | W by 14, A | W by 38, H | miss | W by 35, A | miss | miss | W by 29, H | W by 19, H | W by 22, A | W by 10, A | W by 11, A | miss | W by 7, H | n/a | ILL | 14 |
| . | Team | UW | tOSU | PSU | NU | MSU | M | Iowa | PU | UNL | IU | RU | MD | MN | ILL | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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I really think it is close between the top-3. I'm the only one who as PSU #1. Everyone else has them #3 except LittlePig who has them #2 between #1 UW and #3 tOSU. We all of those three in our top-3.
I think you guys are not giving PSU enough credit. They played a crazy-tough schedule with five games against the top-7 including three on the road. That compares to three games for UW (all at home) and four games to tOSU (two home, two road).
The top-7 this year only lost five home games and two of them were to Penn State:
- #4 Northwestern lost at home to Penn State
- #6 Michigan lost at home to MSU and tOSU
- #7 Iowa lost at home to PSU and PU
I think people are discounting PSU due to the two losses but they lost two games by a combined four points with both losses coming on the road against quality opponents.
I always compare common opponents. PSU and tOSU:
- H2H: Ohio State won but it was by one point at home, not very decisive, IMHO.
- vs #5 MSU: Ohio State obviously did much better
- vs #6 M: Penn State did much better
- vs #7 Iowa: Penn State did much better
- vs #9 UNL: Ohio State did much better but that was mostly because PSU gave up a ton of points in garbage time.
- vs #10 IU: Roughly a push. PSU won by three more points but did it at home.
- vs #11 RU: Ohio State did much better.
- vs #12 UMD: PSU did much better.
That is awfully close to me. The H2H was close and I think that performances against MSU and Iowa basically cancel each other out. Similarly, IU was a push and performances against RU and UMD basically cancel each other out. I have PSU at #1 because what is left is PSU's superior performance against the Wolverines. Also, in games against non-common-opponents PSU beat the crap out of Northwestern on the road while Ohio State beat the crap out of Illinois at home. That leans toward PSU as well.
PSU and UW:
- vs #4 NU: PSU did much better and did it on the road.
- vs #6 M: PSU did much better.
- vs #7 Iowa: UW did much better.
- vs #9 UNL: UW did better but that was mostly because PSU gave up a ton of points in garbage time.
- vs #10 IU: Roughly a push. PSU won by three more points but did it at home.
- vs #12 UMD: PSU did much better.
That is a strong PSU lean. Adding in games against non-common-opponents complicates things. PSU lost to both tOSU and MSU on the road and beat RU soundly at home. UW beat PU by eight at home, MN by 31 on the road, and ILL by 14 on the road. The problem with holding PSU's two road losses against them in a comparison with UW is that Wisconsin's toughest road game was against #9 UNL. That just isn't comparable to having to go into Columbus or East Lansing.
I'm sticking with my vote for PSU at #1 but it is close enough that next week I plan to drop them to #2 behind the B1GCG winner.
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Sorry, I can't override the new auto spacing, so this might be kind of hard to read.
Week 13 composite computer rankings (113 computers - last week in parentheses)
1. WISCONSIN (2)
2. Clemson (4)
3. Georgia (5)
4. Alabama (1)
5. Auburn (10)
6. Oklahoma (7)
7. PENN STATE (9)
8. OHIO STATE (8)
9. Central Florida (11)
10. Miami (3)
11. Notre Dame (6)
12. Washington (14)
13. TCU (12)
14. USC (13)
15. Stanford (21)
16. Virginia Tech (20)
17. Oklahoma State (19)
18. Memphis (18)
19. NORTHWESTERN (22)
20. LSU (24)
21. MICHIGAN STATE (23)
22. MICHIGAN (16)
23. Washington State (17)
24. Mississippi State (15)
25. IOWA (-)
41. Purdue (44)
62. Indiana (57)
69. Minnesota (68)
74. Maryland (71)
75. Nebraska (72)
95. Rutgers (91)
111. Illinois (110)