CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: CWSooner on June 11, 2020, 10:13:14 PM
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15 teams who can win a national title (https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Blue-chip-ratio-college-football-2020-Bud-Elliott-15-teams-who-can-win-a-national-title-148079661/#148079661_1), based solely on recruiting. Per 24/7
(https://i.imgur.com/zxNJJ2b.png)
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That's how I've gauged classes for years. Whether you're first or seventh or eleventh or fifth - as long as you have more 4&5* than not, it's a successful class and you're good enough to win it all.
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There are some teams that meet that > 50% blue-chippers requirement that I don't think are good enough to win it all.
First of all, I don't think Oklahoma will be good enough at the start of the season to get through with no more than one loss. We don't have a QB with significant experience, and we haven't had the competition that we would have had in the spring to see if one is clearly better than the other. CFB these days is a very QB-oriented game, and Lincoln Riley's offense has reflected that.
I don't Texas is good enough to win it all. The Horns haven't won so much as a conference title since 2009, and only three in the last 24 years. So it's hard for me to see them jumping all the way up from that to winning the NGC. I readily admit that Tom Herman gets 'em ready to play very well in the RRS every year, but he also doesn't have his team nearly so well-prepared to play lesser opponents.
I don't think LSU is good enough to win it all. Winning back-to-back is very hard and LSU has lost a lot from last year's great bunch. QB and QB coach are the most important losses.
I don't think that Florida is good enough to win it all. I don't think they'll beat out Georgia for the SEC-E title.
Likewise, I don't think that Michigan will be good enough to beat out The OSU for the B1G-E title.
I don't think that Notre Dame is good enough to win it all.
I don't think that Washington, with a new HFC, will be good enough to win it all.
I don't think that USC, with a coach on the hot seat, will be good enough to win it all.
I don't think Texas A&M will be good enough to win it all. They might beat Bama and then lose to both Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
My picks for the CFP: Bama, Georgia, The OSU, Clemson.
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lol, I wonder why they even bother playing the games....
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The question is not "will" they, but "can" they.
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Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State are just recruiting at an insane level right now, and are far ahead of everyone else on paper. Clemson being at 63% kind of shocks me, I just assumed they were in that 80ish range like the other 3.
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Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State are just recruiting at an insane level right now, and are far ahead of everyone else on paper. Clemson being at 63% kind of shocks me, I just assumed they were in that 80ish range like the other 3.
I was surprised by Clemson's rating as well.
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They're good enough in the mighty ACC.
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A true 5 star QB might be worth more than a true 5 star DB.
I wonder if they adjusted for departures, UGA lost two 5 star players I know about, one to Illinois.
Experience and development obviously are also factors. I'd rather be at 45% with a lot of returning players than 65% with newbies.
It is an interesting ranking all that aside. I think Mullen is a pretty good coach at UF, that can make a difference as well obviously.
UGA plays at Alabama early (Sept.). If they lost twice to Bama, I don't think the make the playoff at 11-2, if they were 11-2.
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yup, departures of blue chips over the 4 year period would seem to count
or perhaps the source feels that if those bluechips leave, it may have been because they weren't good enough to compete and were over rated
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Yeah, that might not apply to say Justin Fields ....
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but, that would be a blow to your roster
so, his blue chips now show up at Ohio St?
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Had UGA kept Fields and started him last season, I dare say they would have been better.
I don't fault Fields for leaving at all. Good for him, he has earned a large pay check next year.
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same for Burrows
in some cases the transfer portal is a good thing for young men
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Did they look back at the previous playoff teams to see if they all fit into this group? I suspect a few didn't. Michigan State? Washington?
But in general ...
"We" have almost penciled in Ohio State, OU, and Clemson, and you could then pencil in Bama/UF/UGA, and we're done. Probably. Maybe.
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I was surprised by Clemson's rating as well.
Clemson's 2017 ranking drops them a bit, it was "only" 16th overall.
Every class since then has been top 10.
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Clemson's 2017 ranking drops them a bit, it was "only" 16th overall.
Every class since then has been top 10.
They also get picky with some high-end guys that might have questions and don't mind taking a smattering of randoms.
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Did they look back at the previous playoff teams to see if they all fit into this group? I suspect a few didn't. Michigan State? Washington?
But in general ...
"We" have almost penciled in Ohio State, OU, and Clemson, and you could then pencil in Bama/UF/UGA, and we're done. Probably. Maybe.
It's not playoff teams, just title winners.
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I know that Georgia was right there with Bama in 2017. That NCG could have gone either way. But then they seem to have taken about a half-step back. Is it the case that Georgia and Florida figure to be right there with Bama in 2020?
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Florida has a legit HC now and our talent level is getting back to be top 5-8, where it should be. Once we get some OL that can run-block, I think we'll be an annual top-5 program again. What we did last year with no running game was pretty amazing.
Georgia fans know we're on the cusp.
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tough to have 3 annual top 5 programs from the same conference
but, SEC, SEC, SEC
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You can be a top five team with two losses obviously, so it's not a huge stretch to have 3 from one conference, but it probably will be "unusual".
If Georgia can find a QB and OL this year, they should be very good. Something was missing on offense last year, at least when their two top receivers were out. Florida has the disadvantage of being paired with LSU in the West, if you think LSU is a bit better than Auburn, and to date they have not recruited as well as UGA.
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I think that's one thing that gets lost in the anti-SEC mindset of the rest of the country. Ignore the conference vs conference crap, just imagine being the HC of an SEC program and your recruiting class is like 7th in the country. Great, right!?!
No. Not at all. Your class is also 4th in your conference. You're losing ground.
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Florida has a legit HC now and our talent level is getting back to be top 5-8, where it should be. Once we get some OL that can run-block, I think we'll be an annual top-5 program again. What we did last year with no running game was pretty amazing.
Georgia fans know we're on the cusp.
Dan's issue is he's not that much of a grinder as a recruiter and he keeps taking really talented kids whose heads aren't on straight. He always feels to me like a coach that can get you to that 95th percentile, but not to that Urban peak (weirdly, Kirby is in the 97th percentile, but there may be a UGA factor there)
That said, he'll raise the floor of a program, and with a high floor, you get close a lot, which is of course the best place to break through from.
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I figure if you get close a lot, over time there will be a breakthrough. The problem of course is we have three apparently elite consistent programs.
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Did they look back at the previous playoff teams to see if they all fit into this group? I suspect a few didn't. Michigan State? Washington?
And they didn't exactly acquit themselves well.
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Well, I figure the list could be teams most likely to make the playoffs, as well as win the NC (something that can be luck as much as ability).
But we have a couple apparent outliers, even if they did not fare well.
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Well, I figure the list could be teams most likely to make the playoffs, as well as win the NC (something that can be luck as much as ability).
But we have a couple apparent outliers, even if they did not fare well.
I think you can be good, but not great, but you get a couple bounces, a couple schedule breaks, and wind up in the CFP. But then actually beating two teams of that caliber, back to back, you can't fluke your way to that.
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The odds you could fluke your way past two elite teams is very low, I agree. Imagine Clemson were average, one could see UNC perhaps going 12-1 and getting into the Dance, and then looking completely outclassed. The same is true for the Pac champion I think.
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or the Big 12 champ
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I think you can be good, but not great, but you get a couple bounces, a couple schedule breaks, and wind up in the CFP. But then actually beating two teams of that caliber, back to back, you can't fluke your way to that.
Wait, I thought the committee was supposed to pick the best teams? Are you saying that they're letting unworthy teams into the CFP because of a couple lucky bounces and schedule breaks, only to get decimated by "real" teams?
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Wait, I thought the committee was supposed to pick the best teams? Are you saying that they're letting unworthy teams into the CFP because of a couple lucky bounces and schedule breaks, only to get decimated by "real" teams?
Eh, I'm good with it. It sorts itself out. We know each year who the best teams are, and I kind of miss the days where you could get a team that maybe wasn't actually the best team just have a crazy run through the season. Would OSU have beaten MSU 9 times out of 10 in 2014? Sure. But the fact that the time they played was the 1 makes college football, college football.
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Wait, I thought the committee was supposed to pick the best teams? Are you saying that they're letting unworthy teams into the CFP because of a couple lucky bounces and schedule breaks, only to get decimated by "real" teams?
lucky has to count for something
on the other hand, schedule breaks should be punished to the letter of the law
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I had thought that Clemson's being "untested" in the regular season might wallop them in the playoffs. That has not been the case, they have been competitive with everyone they played. The "best teams" I think are not always the same as "the best teams for the playoff".
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This is where you say Clemson is rested, having to only play its starters in a few 4th quarters.
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like Ohio St. and Bama?
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Most people do not realize that university faculties control the Big Ten.
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I think it better to have played elite level competition 2-3 times a year than zero before being tested by them in a playoff. But Clemson may be good enough not to care.