CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 08:22:01 PM
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Which (if any) of these programs will be a big-boy team in 2040? Think the Florida schools, circa 1991 or Clemson lately.
Not programs who've tasted recent success like MSU or VA Tech, nor traditional blue-bloods who aren't down.
Maybe I should remove UNL, but I just don't see an inherent path for them to get back up like most helmets have. At least Tennessee borders talent-rich states, NE borders....more cornfields.
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I think the only ones with a shot on that list are North Carolina and A&M.
I'll take the field. Wouldn't surprise me to see a Florida school pop up and become dominant. UCF to me could be a darkhorse.
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I look at UNC replacing Illinois as the program that "should" be better, long-term. Population is growing fast there, not a lot of obstacles, etc.
Perhaps I'm underrating being a "basketball school", idk.
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Yeah, should be North Carolina, but it should have been North Carolina for a long time. Texas A&M keeps throwing money at the problem, but for some reason it's not working. If Illinois gets a hire right, at the same time Wisconsin gets one wrong, I could see them being a Wisconsin. A program that is consistently top 15 for a couple decades, particularly in that division, but their ceiling is way lower than those other two.
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Northern Virginia is one of the fastest growing areas of the country. Lots of jobs. Lots of young professionals who might procreate.
Demographics suggest they could climb.
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I went UVA. Illinois will cease to exist when I leave and turn the lights off on my way out.
UNC will eventually get the death penalty.
Minnesota will not be able to hang on to its carnival barker coach, and will remain in its place as a non factor.
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It really depends on who gets THAT coach. And can keep him a while.
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It really depends on who gets THAT coach. And can keep him a while.
This is the correct answer.
Mack Brown is killing on the ‘crootin trail at unc but dude is like 100 years old. He’s not going to be around in 20 years.
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A&M.
Money+crazy+available talent.
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I went with Colorado. Bill McCartney had them there once upon a time when he started tapping into the talent in SoCal. He said he knew if he could just get kids to Boulder he could convince them to stay. Beautiful campus, no other in state P5 school to compete with, only one blue blood in its conference.
The right coach can win there.
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I dont know why, but I liked when Colorado was good. Maybe it was the 88-90 option era. I LOVED when they'd play Nebraska around Thanksgiving.
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It isn't going to be the Wolverines.
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A&M.
Money+crazy+available talent.
That was the obvious one, but they've always had that. What has changed?
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That was the obvious one, but they've always had that. What has changed?
SEC! SEC! SEC!
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That was the obvious one, but they've always had that. What has changed?
I’d argue it’s harder for them now bc they joined the SEC. All they’ve done is joined a much tougher conference and opened up Texas recruiting more to the other SEC teams.
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True, but it gets them out from under the longhorn shadow.
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That was the obvious one, but they've always had that. What has changed?
Weirdly, I think not being second fiddle to Texas and being in a conference where second-tier teams get more big-boy status. In the SWC, you're second fiddle. In the Big 12, you're second fiddle to a team that is battling to not be second fiddle with first Nebraska, then Oklahoma.
In the SEC, A&M sheds that a little. It probably can't be in the realm of current Bama, but it could push Auburn/Non-Burrow LSU if it gets things together. And third fiddle in the SEC gets you a NY6 Bowl pretty often. Cleanest path to mattering.
Plus the rest of the options
Illinois - Non-football school in non-football state surrounded by a lot of schools who care more.
North Carolina - Basketball school. Both strikes me as a place that would be OK with being OK forever, plus I just don't trust them to make back-to-back good hires.
Minnesota - Location hurts. Division hurts. Fleck seems like the kind of coach who either leaves or stays because he doesn't have the exact right place to go.
Colorado - Don't trust the geography and kind of a smoldering mess at the moment
Nebraska - Just don't like the geography, and in the midst of almost a Michigan-like run of coaching dissatisfaction. Also suffering the "ain't never gonna be what it was" curse.
Virginia - Depends how one defines mattering. I think Bronco has long-term skill. It kind of depends if the uncertainty in the middle of the ACC pulls them back into the spin cycle with Pitt and UNC and everyone else. Maybe he makes them the king of the mediocre middle, but you're basically talking engineering a Va. Tech-like rise, and I just think that's much harder to do these day.
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I took the field, but if I had to pick a team, it would be A&M. They've got to be able to buy success eventually.
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I took the field, but if I had to pick a team, it would be A&M. They've got to be able to buy success eventually.
Their coach-picking ability post Slocum was dreadful. Plus they had the oddity of Sumlin, who gave the program a rocket of at jump start and saw his team grow seemingly worse and worse each season.
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UNLV
That new stadium that they will be sharing with the Raiders is something else.
(https://media.lasvegassun.com/media/img/photos/2020/01/16/20200110_sun_ALLEGIANT_STADIUM_wv_selects_04_t653.jpg?214bc4f9d9bd7c08c7d0f6599bb3328710e01e7b)
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Teams like UNLV might be the next Boise State, or move up a notch, which would be a development.
I don't think Appy State has that potential. Cincinnati does. Georgia State? They have a ways to go. UCF? Yup.
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i'm gonna throw @Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1) a bone and say tenn has a chance to become a respectable program sometime in the next 20 years. yes, this is both a dig and genuine prediction.
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i'm gonna throw @Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1) a bone and say tenn has a chance to become a respectable program sometime in the next 20 years. yes, this is both a dig and genuine prediction.
Tennessee is within three years of their next national championship. < true story.
so long as we're talking projections based on perspectives, i'm pretty safe saying that. I'll say it next year too... and the year after... always with the three year caveat.
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I think NC State has a better shot than UNC. It's generally slightly better at football, and isn't quite as hoops-obsessed. Plus no sanctions will be coming that I can see.
Kentucky might be a dark horse. Mark Stoops is doing an unbelievable job in Lexington and while they benefit from playing in the weaker East, they have recently shown that they can play with - and occasionally beat - the big boys.
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NC State is more of a football school than is UNC. Of course, a good coach would step up either program (and one has already).
That state of course has four P5 programs, even though two are generally not very competitive, so the talent gets split, and a lot of it leaves the state.
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I'm taking the Huskers
because I've been brainwashed
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I'm taking the Huskers
because I've been brainwashed
No, that's indoctrination. There's a difference. :88:
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I went with the field because I just don't trust any one of the schools on this list enough to get it done.
Votes right now/my thoughts on each:
- 5 votes, Field: See above.
- 3 votes, UVA: Bwar made a good point about demographics but who is to say that UVA will be the primary beneficiary as opposed to VaTech, UMD, PSU, or some other school?
- 2 votes, aTm: In theory they should be much better. There is enough talent in the state of Texas for them to be #2 and still be a solid program. That said, nothing has changed about that except now they are in the SEC where a solid team is going to go maybe 9-3 not CFP.
- 1 vote, Illinois: I've always thought that Illinois was a historic underperformer so I get the idea that it could happen but I don't see any reason to believe that it will happen.
- 1 vote, Colorado: I like this on the theory that the PAC only has one true blue-blood but I just don't see any reason to believe that it will happen for the Buffaloes.
- 1 vote, Nebraska: I hope so but I just think that their best days are behind them.
- 0 votes, Minnesota: I can't see this happening without Minnesota effectively replacing Wisconsin and they would still have a ceiling issue.
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- 3 votes, UVA: Bwar made a good point about demographics but who is to say that UVA will be the primary beneficiary as opposed to VaTech, UMD, PSU, or some other school?
There's also a question of demographics. The ones flooding the northern VA area are the ones working in government or government-adjacent industries. You know, nerds.
Are their kids going to be top football talents? :57: