CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on December 22, 2019, 06:27:18 PM
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I discovered they keep a running list of their all-time top recruits "ever" (since 2000). I wanted to do a rundown of them, maybe by school, to sort of grade them out. I was thinking of:
6 - All-Time Legend
5 - All-American season, great player
4 - Very good, all-conference, longtime starter
3 - Good enough to be a longtime starter
2 - Started some, maybe showed flashes, but a disappointment
1 - Played here and there, didn't do much - never held a job down
0 - Didn't really do anything/didn't see the field
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I'd rate transfers by their careers, regardless of where it happened. I'll do the "perfect" recruits first, then do a few different teams. Maybe you guys could rate them better than I could.
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1.0000 - perfect recruits
Jadeveon Clowney - S.Carolina - DE.......I'd give him a 5.
Robert Nkemdiche - Ole Miss - DE.........4.5
Rashan Gary - Michigan - DT.................4
Vince Young - Texas - QB......................6? 5.5?
Ernie Sims - Florida State - LB...............maxed out at a 4 or so, maybe even 3.5
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0.9999
Ronald Powell - Florida - DE...................3.5, got hurt, never great
Trevor Lawrence - Clemson - QB.............already a 5, potentially a 6 if he wins another NC
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0.9998
Dorial Green-Beckham - Missouri - WR.....4? 4.5? Transfered.
Justin Fields - Georgia - QB.....................4.5 or 5 already for the Buckeyes, we'll see
D.J. Williams - Miami - LB.......................4.5 or 5, always a better prospect than producer
Brock Berlin - Florida - QB.......................3.5 or so, transferred to Miami, nothing special but played plenty
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Hmmph, not a great lot, altogether.
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1.0000 - perfect recruits
Jadeveon Clowney - S.Carolina - DE.......I'd give him a 5.
Robert Nkemdiche - Ole Miss - DE.........4.5
Rashan Gary - Michigan - DT.................4
Vince Young - Texas - QB......................6? 5.5?
Ernie Sims - Florida State - LB...............maxed out at a 4 or so, maybe even 3.5
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0.9999
Ronald Powell - Florida - DE...................3.5, got hurt, never great
Trevor Lawrence - Clemson - QB.............already a 5, potentially a 6 if he wins another NC
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0.9998
Dorial Green-Beckham - Missouri - WR.....4? 4.5? Transfered.
Justin Fields - Georgia - QB.....................4.5 or 5 already for the Buckeyes, we'll see
D.J. Williams - Miami - LB.......................4.5 or 5, always a better prospect than producer
Brock Berlin - Florida - QB.......................3.5 or so, transferred to Miami, nothing special but played plenty
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Hmmph, not a great lot, altogether.
Not sure how Nkemdiche is a 4.5 and Gary a 4. I'd probably have them both at 4.5. Rest of your list looks right to me. I'd probably have DGB at 3.5. He was a bit of a flop considering the hype. I'd bump Fields to 5* after that season he just had. 40 TD passes to 1 INT. Are you kidding me?
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FSU
I'll do FSU, because I know a bit about them and no one else here cares about 'em.
I'm also chopping off some decimal places, because 0.9982 is stupid. It'll be 982.
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1000 Ernie Sims (see above)
994 - Mario Edwards - DT............3 really, always awaited him to be great, it never came
992 - Lorenzo Booker - RB...........3.5? Was supposed to be a fast stud...maybe a 4? 3.5 imo
984 - Cam Akers - RB..................4 for sure, but has had a crap OL, should be a 5 or so, for real
982 - Derwin James - S................5, solid 5 - high draft pick and all - met expectations
982 - Travis Johnson - DE.............3? Definitely started plenty and maybe had injuries, not sure
980 - Chris Davis - ATH................3.5 I guess. Showed flashes, but didn't earn any real accolades
980 - Fred Rouse - WR.................ton of hype, never did much. I'd say a 2 or 2.5.
977 - Karlos Williams - S..............wound up sharing time at RB, so a 2.5.
977 - Myron Rolle - S..................good player, played a lot, 3.5 or 4 maybe (not sure).
974 - Jacobbi McDaniel - DT.........never heard of him, not even sure he played much. 1.5 I guess.
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So that's their 10 highest-rated recruits since 2000. One 5-rated guy, one or two 4s. Idk if this is good, bad, or average.
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Now I'll do a B1G team, to get someone riled up with my ignorance!
Ha!
Errr, the pickin's are slim outside of UM and OSU. Maybe I'll go wtih ND.....
988 - Jimmy Clausen - QB.................4 or 4.5? I'd go with 4, personally.
987 - Jaylon Smith - LB....................is this the guy that got hurt? 4.5-5 or so. He was really good.
977 - Manti Te'o - LB........................5, and you could push it to 5.5 with the fake girlfriend thing if you really wanted, lol
964 - Sam Young - T.........................3, started forever but couldn't stay at left tackle, low draft pick
947 - Aaron Lynch - DE.....................3.5 or 4, played well, transferred to USF, got drafted
jeez, having to dig a lot deeper than with FSU
wow, found Joe Mauer (longtime Twins catcher)
Feels like I've scrolled past 40 more FSU guys, looking for 10 for the Irish....
914 - Michael Floyd - WR..................4.5 maybe? He was really good, for sure.
Okay, I'm tired of scrolling, ND sucks.
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Fun find:
the QB rated just head of Tim Tebow? MSU's Jeff Smoker! Just behind? JT Daniels - that USC kid that just got replaced.
Recruiting is fun!
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Fun find:
the QB rated just head of Tim Tebow? MSU's Jeff Smoker! Just behind? JT Daniels - that USC kid that just got replaced.
Recruiting is fun!
Saban was recruiting at an elite level back at MSU. Some of those classes he landed were extremely highly rated. Charles Rogers was the #1 player in HS. TJ Duckett, Julian Peterson, and Plaxico were also all big-time 5* recruits. Saban was able to recruit at a high level even then. I think Smoker and Rogers both committed to MSU before Saban re-signed abruptly to take the LSU job. Sparty naming Bobby Williams head coach helped them keep Smoker and Rogers.
Smoker and Rogers both would've been a lot better than they were as players if not for drug problems.
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My assumption is to a degree any list like this is going to be more disappointing than not because there's a large number of recruits (even .999 ones) and a really small number of 6s and a relatively small number of 5s.
Like Clowney was a two-time first-team All-American and sixth-place Heisman finisher as a DL and that in some ways feels a tad disappointing (I think he should be a 5.5, but splitting hairs).
So anyway, there aren't so few 5s and 6s and so few guys in those echelons, the crossover isn't gonna be that high. I kind of feel like when you get a dude that good, you still kind of expect a 4.5, maybe a 5 in a few cases.
I also think there's maybe a higher dummy coefficient when it comes to kids that highly rated. They're by nature super talented, which means the game came easy, which often has downsides. It's a paradox. A certain percent of kids will fight harder if they're low-rated but rest easy if they're high rated, in essence meaning the rating cannot be correct.
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Sure, I don't think anyone is expecting these high recruits to average a 5 or anything. Yet at the same time, that's what you want from each individual player, lol. I'm just doing this because I know Florida's 5* kids very often don't pan out. We just had a OL finish his career last year, and he was one of these best of the best recruits....he played 3 different positions and got some borderline 1st/2nd team all-SEC. That's not good enough.
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But yeah, if your 5* kids average that career, you'd probably have to take it.
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I think many expect some kid who dominated in HS to do the same in CFB, which obviously is not realistic in many cases. A five state kid should contribute more often than a 4 or a 3. A five star recruit almost has nowhere to go but down, or staying even. So, the odds are he will somewhat disappoint. A four star can excel and go up, and a 3 can do it even more, while the vast majority of 3s end up not making a name for themselves.
We recall the 3s who excelled because they excelled and forget the vast majority who perhaps played some here and there.
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1.0000 - perfect recruits
What is your source for that ranking, OAM?
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24/7
https://247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruitRankings/ (https://247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruitRankings/)
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OAM, out of curiosity, what's your criteria for being an "all time legend"? The most obvious ones I can think of are Herschel Walker, Barry Sanders, and Bo Jackson (I'd go so far as to say that if such a thing existed, Walker and Jackson would have been 6-star recruits) but really nobody since the 2000 class touches those guys. For offensive players, a Heisman should warrant an automatic 6.
Did you dock Clowney for his school choice? He absolutely was a giant among men and truly had the next-level goods, but outside of "The Hit" against Michigan, he might have flown a bit under the radar because he didn't play for a team like Alabama or Ohio State. The SC teams he played for were good, but none were serious NC-caliber teams. I'd personally give him an extra half point for "The Hit" alone.
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Huskers had one kid in the top 600 = Marlon Lucky - solid starter and a star on that team his jr and sr season, but nothing special
3 including Lucky in the top 800, the mother 2 weren't even solid starters
Highest rated recruit this season, OL from Kansas would fall in about 855
my buddies from Kansas tell he he's soft and won't amount to anything
Looking at this list, Iowa and Michigan have recruited much better than NEbraska
Ndamukong Suh - 0.9797 - 48th in the nation that season - #867 - the first superstar for the Huskers
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24/7
https://247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruitRankings/ (https://247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruitRankings/)
Thanks!
I guess the "24/7" in the thread's title flew right past me.
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Wow, only one guy on the front page (top 50) for OU.
Adrian Peterson, 0.9996, #17 on the list. I'd say that he rates a 6.
Rhett Bomar, 0.9982, #67. I'd give him a 6 if we were ranking knuckleheadedness, but maybe a 2.5 for actual contribution.
Tommie Harris, 0.9966, #134. 5.5.
DeMarcus Granger, 0.9964, #143. 3.
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Most people don't realize this, but STARZ rankings are not based on college projections, but rather how a HS player projects to the NFL.
The 5* players are supposed to be locks for the NFL first round. That's why 247 only has 32 5* players (32 NFL teams).
https://247sports.com/college/appalachian-state/Article/247Sports-Rating-Explanation-81574/
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Didn't know that....but also find "only 32 five-star players" odd. To me, 5* guys should only be a few each season. 32 per year seems REALLY high to me.
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Anywho, I really wish historical recruiting data was available. Florida has pdfs of its media guides going back to the 40s, so you can read the blurbs on incoming FR. It's neat to see who was highly-sought after and what other offers they were considering.
I looked up Emmitt Smith - he was all-everything, as he finished 3rd all-time in yardage and TDs in HS history. But he also had Nebraska and Auburn in his final 3 choices. Imagine Emmitt in the option!
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Emmitt?
Too small. Not fast enough. Blah.
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As for having 32 5* kids...
247 has about 5000 kids in its database every year. so, about 0.6 percent are 5*. Then there are roughly 200 4* kids, good for 4 percent. The remaining 4,700 or so kids are 3* or below.
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Heard it all his life. Ha!
Emmitt is the anti-video game RB. Not fast. Doesn't truck people. Just gains yards. He didn't have that Dallas OL in high school, but ran for eleventy billion yards. Didn't have that Dallas OL in Gainesville, but was top 10 for the Heisman both years he wasn't hurt. He was shifty more than anything, like a knuckleball.
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Hell, at Nebraska, you might stick him at FB and see if he could shake loose for some big gains. Sort of like the 'other' Adrian Peterson at GA Southern - he had an all-time great I-AA career at FB in the triple option.
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The ratings also have major flaws:
1. 247 only has one ratings guy covering most of the midwestern states, and he cannot possibly see all the games.
2. Some mods from 247 sites (looking at you, Goophs and Huskers) lobby the ratings guys for rating bumps for "their" commits. Sometimes it happens.
3. Most of the ratings are done after junior season, and after the summer camp circuits. Therefore, the ratings guys do not take much senior tape into account. Hurts for late-bloomers. Sometimes they catch the late-bloomers, but only after a commitment is made.
4. If one of those late-bloomers is a UW commit, he's a 3*. If it's Michigan, he's a 4*.
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Heard it all his life. Ha!
Emmitt is the anti-video game RB. Not fast. Doesn't truck people. Just gains yards. He didn't have that Dallas OL in high school, but ran for eleventy billion yards. Didn't have that Dallas OL in Gainesville, but was top 10 for the Heisman both years he wasn't hurt. He was shifty more than anything, like a knuckleball.
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Hell, at Nebraska, you might stick him at FB and see if he could shake loose for some big gains. Sort of like the 'other' Adrian Peterson at GA Southern - he had an all-time great I-AA career at FB in the triple option.
Most of Barry Switzer's wishbone FBs were fast guys. Kenny King was a halfback in HS, then played FB at OU, then played 7 years--including 2 years as a Super Bowl-starter--as a running back in the NFL.
Speed was the major difference between the way Darrel Royal ran the wishbone and the way Barry Switzer ran it. It was a power offense under Royal and a speed offense under Switzer.
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987 - Jaylon Smith - LB....................is this the guy that got hurt? 4.5-5 or so. He was really good.
977 - Manti Te'o - LB........................5, and you could push it to 5.5 with the fake girlfriend thing if you really wanted, lol
Smith was a consensus AA guy as a senior, so 5 easy.
Were it not for the fake GF, I bet Te'o would be a 5.5. Two-time AA. Won every award as a senior, lead an OK team to the title game.
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I thought 24/7 was a composite rankings site....otherwise, why care about it?
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247 has the composite rankings.
Those rankings include their own, Rivals and ESPN. They used to also include Scout, but they bought Scout.
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As long as it's composite, it's useful. It's the top scientist dabbling in the inexact science.