CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: SFBadger96 on December 09, 2019, 01:09:54 PM
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Good matchups. A fair amount of punching up in weight class, but all are pretty interesting.
December 27
Pinstripe Bowl (NYC)
Michigan State (6-6) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Is the ACC really so bad that a .500 Sparty can hang with an 8-4 Wake? An indication for the B1G about whether Clemson cruised, or had to work for its unbeaten season (Wake was .500 in conference, but was really 5-4 as it beat UNC in a "non-conference" game).
Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
#16 Iowa (9-3) vs. #22 Southern California (8-4)
Really interesting game. SC had some moments this season (including beating Utah and putting a scare in ND in South Bend), but also a head scratching loss to BYU. But this is also nearly a home game for the Trojans, who always seem to play well in California bowls. Iowa has been steady, so this is an interesting B1G vs. P12 matchup that reflects on the old days of the conference rivalry.
December 28
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
#10 Penn State (10-2) vs. #17 Memphis (12-1)
I feel bad for Penn State; nothing to gain, something to lose. Nonetheless, Memphis has had a great season, and the Cotton Bowl is a big deal.
CFP Semifinal (Glendale, AZ)
#2 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-0)
Slobber knocker. This is what the college football playoff was created to give us. Ohio State earned its 13-0 record against stiff competition. It was always on another level. Clemson cruised through a soft conference, but looked amazing doing it. Great matchup.
December 30
Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara, CA)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Cal (7-5)
Home game for Cal. Geatures two similar feeling teams. Both on the upswing, but how much? Both overshadowed in their conferences and likely to stay that way, but each having a quality season that has their fans excited. Hopefully Cal fans will help fill the seats, because this is a traditional bowl of the reward-the-team for its season variety. A win here will put a nice stamp on that team's surprising season.
January 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
#18 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #12 Auburn (9-3)
I cringe a little at this match up, but probably because I still don't give Minnesota enough credit. Auburn beat Oregon at a neutral site, and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and its three losses were forgivable and close (LSU, Georgia, and Florida). This is a tough draw for the Gophers, but could really put an exclamation mark on an exciting season in the Twin Cities.
Citrus (Orlando)
#14 Michigan (9-3) vs. #13 Alabama (10-2)
Oof. Congratulations, Michigan, you get Angry Nick Saban. Be serious, how many of you really believe there are 12 teams in the country that would be favored against Alabama on a neutral field? This is a team that lost to the #1 ranked team by five, and lost at its biggest rival (and solid team in its own right) by three in a game that goes on the list of crazy rivalry games. I think Harbaugh is heading for another tough press conference.
Rose Bowl
#8 Wisconsin (10-3) vs. #6 Oregon (11-2)
Reminds me of the old days. Really good game between two really good teams, neither of which earned the next step, but both of which can really play.
January 2
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Indiana (8-4) vs. Tennessee (7-5)
Fun game for Indiana. Interesting gauge for how good each of these teams really is. ES(EC)PN seems to be all-in on Tennessee right now, but it's not really obvious why. Yes, the Volunteers won their last five games, but it wasn't exactly a murderers row. They lost to every good team they played, oh, and BYU and Georgia State.
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I am happy that the Gophers were paired up with Auburn. That or Alabama were the hope. It's going to be a really tough test....because as you mentioned.....Auburn's three losses were by slim margins to top ten teams.
Guess we'll see.
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Good matchups. A fair amount of punching up in weight class, but all are pretty interesting.
December 27
Pinstripe Bowl (NYC)
Michigan State (6-6) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Is the ACC really so bad that a .500 Sparty can hang with an 8-4 Wake? An indication for the B1G about whether Clemson cruised, or had to work for its unbeaten season (Wake was .500 in conference, but was really 5-4 as it beat UNC in a "non-conference" game).
Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
#16 Iowa (9-3) vs. #22 Southern California (8-4)
Really interesting game. SC had some moments this season (including beating Utah and putting a scare in ND in South Bend), but also a head scratching loss to BYU. But this is also nearly a home game for the Trojans, who always seem to play well in California bowls. Iowa has been steady, so this is an interesting B1G vs. P12 matchup that reflects on the old days of the conference rivalry.
December 28
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
#10 Penn State (10-2) vs. #17 Memphis (12-1)
I feel bad for Penn State; nothing to gain, something to lose. Nonetheless, Memphis has had a great season, and the Cotton Bowl is a big deal.
CFP Semifinal (Glendale, AZ)
#2 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-0)
Slobber knocker. This is what the college football playoff was created to give us. Ohio State earned its 13-0 record against stiff competition. It was always on another level. Clemson cruised through a soft conference, but looked amazing doing it. Great matchup.
December 30
Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara, CA)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Cal (7-5)
Home game for Cal. Geatures two similar feeling teams. Both on the upswing, but how much? Both overshadowed in their conferences and likely to stay that way, but each having a quality season that has their fans excited. Hopefully Cal fans will help fill the seats, because this is a traditional bowl of the reward-the-team for its season variety. A win here will put a nice stamp on that team's surprising season.
January 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
#18 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #12 Auburn (9-3)
I cringe a little at this match up, but probably because I still don't give Minnesota enough credit. Auburn went to Oregon and won, and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and its three losses were forgivable and close (LSU, Georgia, and Florida). This is a tough draw for the Gophers, but could really put an exclamation mark on an exciting season in the Twin Cities.
Citrus (Orlando)
#14 Michigan (9-3) vs. #13 Alabama (10-2)
Oof. Congratulations, Michigan, you get Angry Nick Saban. Be serious, how many of you really believe there are 12 teams in the country that would be favored against Alabama on a neutral field? This is a team that lost to the #1 ranked team by five, and lost at its biggest rival (and solid team in its own right) by three in a game that goes on the list of crazy rivalry games. I think Harbaugh is heading for another tough press conference.
Rose Bowl
#8 Wisconsin (10-3) vs. #6 Oregon (11-2)
Reminds me of the old days. Really good game between two really good teams, neither of which earned the next step, but both of which can really play.
January 2
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Indiana (8-4) vs. Tennessee (7-5)
Fun game for Indiana. Interesting gauge for how good each of these teams really is. ES(EC)PN seems to be all-in on Tennessee right now, but it's not really obvious why. Yes, the Volunteers won their last five games, but it wasn't exactly a murderers row. They lost to every good team they played, oh, and BYU and Georgia State.
Excellent summary. I find the Michigan-Bama matchup intriguing. Yes, Bama lost to the top 5 team in their own house by 5, but they were playing for their playoff lives.
without Tua, and with often debated “ lack of motivation” for a team that might not want to be there ( including the high likelihood that many of their starters boundd for the NFL won’t play) we could see Michigan take them to the shed, and it would not shock me.
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January 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
#18 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #12 Auburn (9-3)
I cringe a little at this match up, but probably because I still don't give Minnesota enough credit. Auburn went to Oregon and won, and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and its three losses were forgivable and close (LSU, Georgia, and Florida). This is a tough draw for the Gophers, but could really put an exclamation mark on an exciting season in the Twin Cities.
Just a little correction. Auburn went to Jerry World to play Oregon, supposedly a "neutral site game". However, the point stands that they did beat Oregon.
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That's a good point--and it absolutely is different than beating Oregon in Autzen. And the broader point, that Auburn is likely very good, remains. :-)
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Pinstripe Bowl:
WF's four losses are to Louisville in a shootout, got stifled by a good Virginia Tech team, positively steamrolled by Clemson, and lost a heartbreaker in OT to a terrible Syracuse team. They haven't beaten any P5 teams with over 6 wins, and still won't if they get past Sparty. Michigan State has played a far tougher schedule and has a pretty good in against a respectable Indiana, but against the big boys they were just plain dreadful, getting outscored by Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan to the tune of 144-27. That's barely half a field goal per quarter.
MSU is 44th in passing defense. WF is 97th. Sparty enjoys a large advantage here.
MSU is 15th against the run. WF is 73rd. Sparty enjoys a large advantage here.
MSU is 60th in passing offense. WF is 18th. Deacs enjoy a large advantage here.
MSU is 116th in rushing offense. WF is 47th. Deacs enjoy a large advantage here.
MSU is tied for 40th in penalties committed. WF is 4th. Deacs enjoy a large advantage here.
MSU is penalized approx. 54 yards per game, while WF is penalized approx. 33.
Based on these metrics I think WF has to get the edge, as their relative weakness (overall defense) is better than MSU's relative weakness (overall offense). WF is mediocre against the run, but Sparty is nowhere close to competent running the ball. Sparty's strength is run defense, but WF is a pass-first offense and while their secondary is solid, they can still be thrown on. WF's strength is throwing the football and does it much better than MSU. All the pressure is on Lewerke to conduct the offense and all WF needs is one big mistake to put this one away.
Gun-to-my-head prediction: WF gets this one 26-21.
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I think it's a credit to the matchups that I don't see any obvious mismatches there. Memphis is pretty solid I think, and while PSU SHOULD be better, they might not play that way. Bama-Michigan has all kinds of subthemes, as does Auburn-Minnesota.
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I think it's a credit to the matchups that I don't see any obvious mismatches there. Memphis is pretty solid I think, and while PSU SHOULD be better, they might not play that way. Bama-Michigan has all kinds of subthemes, as does Auburn-Minnesota.
I agree entirely. If we were doing one of those confidence games I don't have any idea which game I would pick first and I could see any of them going either way.
Pinstripe:
I think MSU wins simply because I think the ACC is so bad that Wake's wouldn't be anywhere close to a bowl if they played in any other P5 league.
Holiday:
SC is so up-and-down that who knows. Given Iowa's record this year we should be able to assume that it will be a close game.
Cotton:
To me this is all about motivation. If PSU shows up crying about being left out of the big dance and overlooks Memphis they'll lose. OTOH, if PSU plays anywhere close to their potential they'll win this in a laugher.
Fiesta:
We all know that Clemson hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse but nobody knows if that is because they can't or just because they haven't had the opportunity. We'll find out.
RedBox:
It is hard to make any prediction involving an Illinois team that:
- beat Wisconsin, and
- lost to Northwestern
Outback:
IMHO, this is the Cotton Bowl in reverse.
Citrus:
I agree with SFBadger, if Bama plays to their potential there isn't anything Michigan can do to stop them. However, Michigan is a good team and if Bama shows up with half their starters peeking at NFL draft boards and nobody really caring about the Wolverines it could get ugly for the Tide.
Gator:
Indiana has yet another chance to get a name scalp.
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A lot of 8-4 teams have no wins over decent teams. You can schedule 4 pastries OOC in two conferences and then go 4-4 in conference to get to 8-4. The four good teams beat you, but you're 8-4. Tennessee didn't even manage to beat two of its pastries and finished 7-5. They could well be 9-3 and sounding like a good team, but they lost rather badly to the three real teams they played. Often, there really isn't much difference between 6-6 and 9-3 except scheduling. How many teams would have a good record playing A&M's schedule? Not many.
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A lot of 8-4 teams have no wins over decent teams. You can schedule 4 pastries OOC in two conferences and then go 4-4 in conference to get to 8-4. The four good teams beat you, but you're 8-4. Tennessee didn't even manage to beat two of its pastries and finished 7-5. They could well be 9-3 and sounding like a good team, but they lost rather badly to the three real teams they played. Often, there really isn't much difference between 6-6 and 9-3 except scheduling. How many teams would have a good record playing A&M's schedule? Not many.
Frankly, most teams in the country would go exactly 7-5 against aTm's schedule. The gap between the best five teams that they played and the worst seven was that big. Here are their 12 opponents ranked using CFP rankings then my guesses:
- #1 LSU, lost by 43
- #3 Clemson, lost by 14
- #5 UGA, lost by 6
- #12 Auburn, lost by 8
- #13 Bama, lost by 19
- 3-5/6-6 MissSt, won by 19
- 3-5/4-8 USCe, won by 24
- 2-6/4-8 Ole Miss, won by 7
- 0-8/2-10 Arkansas, won by 4
- 3-5/4-8 UTSA, won by 31
- 2-6/3-9 TxSt, won by 34
- 2-7/4-8 (FCS) Lamar, won by 59
They had a brutal top-5 and lost all of them then a very easy bottom seven and won all of them. It is great that they were close with UGA and Auburn but they were also close with Ole Miss and Ark so what does that mean?
I agree with your larger point. If they had scheduled another pastry instead of Clemson and gotten Vandy instead of UGA they would be 9-3, same team.
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without Tua, and with often debated “ lack of motivation” for a team that might not want to be there ( including the high likelihood that many of their starters boundd for the NFL won’t play) we could see Michigan take them to the shed, and it would not shock me.
Put that thing out - you'll burn your fingers ;D.Blue might win but it won't be a woodshed.Unless of course Sunday eligible kids bail not risking injury
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why would Michigan's Sunday kids be more likely to play than Bama's?
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why would Michigan's Sunday kids be more likely to play than Bama's?
The notion may be that Bama has more of them, I don't know if that is the case.
Motivation is key in this one.
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we could see Michigan take them to the shed, and it would not shock me.
Anyone taking Alabama behind the shed (2+ scores) would be shocking. It's happened exactly once since 2004.
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The notion may be that Bama has more of them, I don't know if that is the case.
Motivation is key in this one.
two very proud experienced coaches in proud programs with history
perhaps the Bammer kids expected to be in the CFP, but I guess they have some pride
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Anyone taking Alabama behind the shed (2+ scores) would be shocking. It's happened exactly once since 2004.
That would have been Oklahoma 45, Alabama 31 in the Sugar Bowl after the 2013 season.
Bama was said not to have been motivated for that game.
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and I said the Bammers just got whipped by the better team that day, the Sooners
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That would have been Oklahoma 45, Alabama 31 in the Sugar Bowl after the 2013 season.
Bama was said not to have been motivated for that game.
That's 2 scores......nevermind. I guess my every post is some sort of demented, slanted, pro-SEC piece of shit. I don't know why I bother being as specific and precise as I am when it's just utterly lost on those who think me a nutjob.
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That would have been Oklahoma 45, Alabama 31 in the Sugar Bowl after the 2013 season.
Bama was said not to have been motivated for that game.
We hear that whenever Bama loses a bowl game.
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well,, it was ONLY 2 scores, but the games wasn't that close, and it was shocking at the time....
here's SBNation's account, not mine
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/3/5268712/sugar-bowl-2014-alabama-oklahoma-score-results (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/3/5268712/sugar-bowl-2014-alabama-oklahoma-score-results)
The Oklahoma Sooners shockingly defeated No. 3 Alabama 45-31 in Thursday night's Sugar Bowl, riding a 31-point first half and an incredible performance by quarterback Trevor Knight to one of the most improbable wins of the BCS era. The Sooners (11-2) ran up 433 yards of total offense against the vaunted Alabama defense and did just enough to keep Alabama from catching them during a defense-heavy second half. The Crimson Tide (11-2) lost their first bowl game since the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and lost back-to-back games for the first time since that 2008 game.
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We hear that whenever Bama loses a bowl game.
fify
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well,, it was ONLY 2 scores, but the games wasn't that close, and it was shocking at the time....
here's SBNation's account, not mine
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/3/5268712/sugar-bowl-2014-alabama-oklahoma-score-results (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/3/5268712/sugar-bowl-2014-alabama-oklahoma-score-results)
The Oklahoma Sooners shockingly defeated No. 3 Alabama 45-31 in Thursday night's Sugar Bowl, riding a 31-point first half and an incredible performance by quarterback Trevor Knight to one of the most improbable wins of the BCS era. The Sooners (11-2) ran up 433 yards of total offense against the vaunted Alabama defense and did just enough to keep Alabama from catching them during a defense-heavy second half. The Crimson Tide (11-2) lost their first bowl game since the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and lost back-to-back games for the first time since that 2008 game.
It was alternately a 14-point game and a 7-point game all through the 2nd half. Bama had more total yards. The difference was turnovers. But none of that matters.
My point was that the phrase "behind the woodshed" suggests a blowout, and I thought I very tepidly put that at any game over a 2-score difference. It would be fair to say it's a wider range than that, but I was being overly soft. And still it's ignored and thrown in the trash.
It's my fault for wasting time writing the post.
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Maybe I’m the one who should clarify. If eight or 10 Of Alabama’s starters decide to sit out for the pros and all of Michigan’s people stay and play I would not be shocked if Michigan won the game rather easily. I am not predicting that I’m just saying I would not be shocked
Anyone taking Alabama behind the shed (2+ scores) would be shocking. It's happened exactly once since 2004.
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My point was that the phrase "behind the woodshed" suggests a blowout, and I thought I very tepidly put that at any game over a 2-score difference. It would be fair to say it's a wider range than that, but I was being overly soft. And still it's ignored and thrown in the trash.
It's my fault for wasting time writing the post.
behind the woodshed in my book means a whipping
is a whipping also a blowout?
Blowout to me means probably more than a 21 point deficit
but, we can agree it's your fault, hah ;)
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That's 2 scores......nevermind. I guess my every post is some sort of demented, slanted, pro-SEC piece of shit. I don't know why I bother being as specific and precise as I am when it's just utterly lost on those who think me a nutjob.
So you're saying that "2+" does not include "2"?
That's news to me.
When we talk about streaks of, say, "10+ wins," I always read that to mean "10 or more."
Maybe I've been wrong about that all these years.
Regarding demented, slanted, pro-SEC pieces of shit, I didn't think that that particular post was one of them. I thought you were talking about the game I mentioned.
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This has clarified one point for me. It takes a margin of victory of more than two touchdowns to qualify as a blowout or a woodshed whipping.
I will remember this in the future when I read accounts of Alabama's 45-34 win over OU in last year's Orange Bowl.
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now ya know
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I learn something new every day on this board.
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Pete Fiutak over at CFN needs to get the word.
After last year’s clunker of a CFP – with three blowouts – we deserve nice things out of this version.
Alabama 45, Oklahoma 34
Clemson 30, Notre Dame 3
Clemson 44, Alabama 16
Only two blowouts.
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Clemson could do it again
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Clemson could do it again
The OSU would have to give them lots of help, I think.
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Bama gave them some help last season
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My first reaction to the Big Ten bowl lineup was -- this looks like the Big Ten is going to be challenged, probably more so in its bowl games than the past few years since Ohio State is in the playoff. I decided to use the Massey Composite Computer College Football Rankings to see if my impression is correct. So here goes:
- Pinstripe Bowl (NYC) #43 Michigan State (6-6) vs. #41 Wake Forest (8-4)
- Holiday Bowl (San Diego) #19 Iowa (9-3) vs. #23 Southern California (8-4)
- Cotton Bowl (Dallas) #8 Penn State (10-2) vs. #14 Memphis (12-1)
- CFP Semifinal (Glendale, AZ) #1 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-0)
- Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara, CA) #67 Illinois (6-6) vs. #46 Cal (7-5)
- Outback Bowl (Tampa) #20 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #13 Auburn (9-3)
- Citrus (Orlando) #15 Michigan (9-3) vs. #10 Alabama (10-2)
- Rose Bowl #7 Wisconsin (10-3) vs. #6 Oregon (11-2)
- Gator Bowl (Jacksonville) #36 Indiana (8-4) vs. #38 Tennessee (7-5)
Considering computer rankings only, Big Ten teams are ranked higher than their opponents in 4 of 9 bowl games.
Another interesting comparison: Bowl teams by conference in New Years Six games:
3 - SEC
3 - Big Ten
2 - Big Twelve
2 -ACC
1 - PAC-12
1 -Non Power 5
The fact Big Ten opponents are ranked higher in 5 of 9 bowl games relates in large measure to the Big Ten's high participation rate in New Years Six games. You can see that if Ohio St were out of the playoff and each Big Ten team were dropped down to the next level bowl, I haven't had the time to run each #, but at quick glance I think the Big Ten would be favored against each opponent except against Alabama.
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Yup, placing teams in major bowls is good, but means that "down ballot" your conference's teams will tend to face tougher competition, but perhaps from weaker conferences as well. The B1G has four SEC bowl opponents, and they have the same situation exactly.
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This has clarified one point for me. It takes a margin of victory of more than two touchdowns to qualify as a blowout or a woodshed whipping.
I generally agree that a "blowout" or "woodshed whipping" is roughly >21 but context matters.
My go-to examples are:
- Back in the mid 90's Ohio State beat Iowa by "only" 21 points, 56-35. However, I consider it to be a blowout because tOSU led 56-0 and the backups gave up a bunch of garbage-time points.
- Ohio State once beat Penn State by 22, points, 28-6. However I do NOT consider that to be a blowout because tOSU was clinging to an eight point, one-score lead deep into the fourth quarter until PSU's QB threw pick-sixes on back-to-back plays.
My point is that it isn't just about point differential.
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I generally agree that a "blowout" or "woodshed whipping" is roughly >21 but context matters.
My go-to examples are:
- Back in the mid 90's Ohio State beat Iowa by "only" 21 points, 56-35. However, I consider it to be a blowout because tOSU led 56-0 and the backups gave up a bunch of garbage-time points.
- Ohio State once beat Penn State by 22, points, 28-6. However I do NOT consider that to be a blowout because tOSU was clinging to an eight point, one-score lead deep into the fourth quarter until PSU's QB threw pick-sixes on back-to-back plays.
My point is that it isn't just about point differential.
Doesn't Game Control help account for that? Better metric than MOV
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We've all seen games where Team A beats Team B despite Team B's gaining a lot more yards and TOP, etc. Usually, you can find the answer in the turn over statistic.
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Some games are close, then get out of hand in a hurry. Other games are out of hand early, but late scores make them seem closer. Wisconsin's wins over Minnesota and Michigan this season are examples of each. The Minnesota game was close into the third quarter, and didn't feel out of reach until the 4th quarter, when, at 24-10, the Badgers denied Minnesota an the goal line on 4th down, took over on downs, and marched the other way for a score on six plays, taking a 31-10 lead. Until then, Badger fans remained nervous. Minnesota connects on either of its passes on 3rd or 4th down and it's 24-17...It became a blowout in the 4th quarter, and ended a 21-point game.
Wisconsin was up 28-0 against Michigan at the half, and 35-0 late in the 3rd quarter. Two meaningless touchdowns made it a 21 point game, but it was never anything other than a blowout. The Minnesota game was much closer.
Nonetheless, 21+ is always a big score differential.
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Wisconsin was up 28-0 against Michigan at the half, and 35-0 late in the 3rd quarter. Two meaningless touchdowns made it a 21 point game, but it was never anything other than a blowout. The Minnesota game was much closer.
Nonetheless, 21+ is always a big score differential.
MSU-Indiana in 2015 was back and forth the whole game, 28-26 MSU going into the 4th. MSU added a FG early in the 4th to make it 31-26.
MSU finally added some separation with a TD with 4 minutes left to make it 38-26. IU went 4 (had to go for it), and out, and MSU had 3 big runs in a row to score again. Then IU fumbled the kick return, MSU recovered and scored again. MSU went from up 5 with under 5 minutes to go to a 26 point win.