CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on December 02, 2019, 12:36:21 AM
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Teams with 1st loss Week 14:
none
Teams with 2nd loss Week 14:
Cincinnati
Minnesota
Alabama
Teams with 1st win Week 14:
none
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: Clemson, LSU, Ohio State
-no changes this week
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 35.38% (46 of 130)
Week 2: 38.01% (32 of 84)
Week 3: 32.69% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 34.29% (12 of 35)
Week 5: 21.74% (5 of 23)
Week 6: 11.11% (2 of 18)
Week 7: 25% (4 of 16)
Week 8: 16.67% (2 of 12)
Week 9: 10% (1 of 10)
Week 10: 22.22% (2 of 9)
Week 11: 28.57% (2 of 7)
Week 12: 40% (2 of 5)
Week 13: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 14: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 14 Thoughts:
-For all but 12 teams (the 10 teams in conference championships plus Army and Navy), the only game left to play is possibly a bowl. Can't believe we are here already.
-Let's start on the winless column. Akron lost badly to the Bobcats of Ohio University and finish the year 0-12, making them finish winless. They are the only team to finish on the list. Last year we had none.
-Biggest news of the week was probably Auburn defeating previous 1-loss Alabama. This effectively eliminates the Tide from contention for the Fiesta/Peach Bowls. They'll most likely play in either the Sugar Bowl or the Orange Bowl.
-The biggest beneficiary of that loss will be Oklahoma/Baylor/Utah. Now the only thing that can possibly keep all 3 of those out will be a Georgia victory over LSU. If LSU wins, regardless of what happens in the Ohio State and Clemson games, either the Big 12 or PAC-12 champ will be in.
-Looking at scenarios now, Clemson, Ohio State, and LSU are obviously all in with wins. Any one of them might also be in with a loss. LSU could probably afford it the most just because the loss would be to the team likely to be #4 this week, but I'd lean on Ohio State getting in with a loss too if not too bad. Clemson I'd think would be a nail-biter, but am really not sure.
-Between Utah and the Big 12 winner, this weeks committee rankings will tell a lot. Oklahoma might get a bit more credit for being Oklahoma State than Utah beating Colorado. If it's not enough to jump Utah this week, I'd lean against next week too, but how the games look will matter. If Utah or one of Oklahoma/Baylor blows out their opponent in the championship game, that might be enough to push them over the edge.
-For the Group of 5 Cotton Bowl bid, we saw Boise State pull out a win to secure their division and we saw Appalachian State with a high scoring victory. Both will be playing in championships and both will be watching the American Championship score. Our biggest news this past week was Memphis beating Cincinnati. They will now play again this week for the championship. If the Memphis wins again, they are going to the Cotton Bowl. If Cincinnati wins, then Boise State will almost certainly go with a win. If Boise State loses to Hawaii then it would come down to a 2-loss Cincinnati and a 1-loss Appalachian State. I would lean to the committee giving the edge to Cincinnati.
Week 15 Thoughts:
-Our undefeated teams play in the following: Undefeated LSU vs. 1-loss Georgia, undefeated Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, undefeated Clemson vs. Virginia
-Our 1-loss teams play in the following: 1-loss Oklahoma vs. 1-loss Baylor, Cincinnati @ 1-loss Memphis, 1-loss Utah vs. Oregon (Friday), Louisiana-Lafayette @ 1-loss Appalachian State, Hawaii @ 1-loss Boise State
-Thoughts on games:
MAC Championship: Miami (OH) vs. Central Michigan: Miami secured this spot a few weeks ago although limps in a bit after a 2 touchdown loss to Ball State. Central Michigan needed to beat Toledo last week and have Western Michigan lose and got both. I think Central Michigan will be favored here.
Conference USA Championship: UAB @ Florida Atlantic: Nice seeing UAB continue to do strong after their return to football. They won a 2 way tie atop their division with Louisiana Tech. Florida Atlantic won their division outright with their only conference loss to Marshall.
Sun Belt Championship: Louisiana-Lafayette @ 1-loss Appalachian State: Appalachian State is playing this game hoping for some luck and an outside shot at the Cotton Bowl (and really wishing to have the Thursday night Georgia Southern game back). Louisiana-Lafayette is coming into this game 10-2 though so this shouldn't be considered quite the gimme most will probably take it as.
Mountain West Championship: Hawaii @ 1-loss Boise State: The Broncos are once again in a prime spot for a major bowl. Hawaii, for their part, beat San Diego State 2 weeks ago which put them on top and gave them the tie breaker over the Aztecs and have improved a lot over the past year.
American Championship: Cincinnati @ 1-loss Memphis: Both teams are playing for the Cotton Bowl. Memphis just needs to win. Cincinnati probably needs a bit of help, but it will still help to look strong. This is the 2nd week in a row these two have played a game at Memphis.
ACC Championship: Virginia vs. undefeated Clemson: Virginia is probably in the Orange Bowl no matter what happens in this game (biggest competitors were Virginia Tech and Wake Forest who lost last week). They would, really, really like this title though. Clemson has looked like a different team since their near escape vs. North Carolina some time ago. They will want to roll through this and secure their (at worst) #3 seed.
Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. undefeated Ohio State: For the buckeyes, it is not just if they win, but how they look in either a win or a loss. If they can get the #1 seed, it likely means no Clemson in the 1st bowl. Utah/Oklahoma/Baylor would all be strong too, but avoiding Clemson probably preferable. If they were to lose, they can probably still make it as long as they don't lose too badly. For Wisconsin, they are kicking themselves for the Illinois loss still which is what takes this away from being a game for a playoff bowl spot. Still, they are playing for the Rose Bowl here and will probably not get it with a loss (I'd lean to Penn State).
PAC-12 Championship: Oregon vs. 1-loss Utah: The Utes will probably be #5 going into this game and the most likely one to move into playoff bowl with a Georgia loss. They will want to leave nothing for question. Oregon, for their part, wants to rid themselves of the ghost of knowing they were so close to being in the same spot if not for the late loss vs. Arizona State. They are heading to the Rose Bowl with a win and a decent chance of doing the same with a loss.
Big 12 Championship: 1-loss Oklahoma vs. 1-loss Baylor: Both teams need a win to possibly get the playoff spot and both want to look impressive doing it. If winner gets it, the loser goes to the Sugar Bowl vs. an SEC team (likely Georgia or Alabama).
SEC Championship: Undefeated LSU vs. 1-loss Georgia: Winner is definitely in playoff bowl and LSU might be in regardless. LSU would like to look good enough in this to be #1 and avoid Clemson in the first round. Georgia has recovered nicely from the South Carolina loss and is looking very good again.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 1, total: 3
Clemson
Ohio State
Louisiana State
1-loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1 Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 7
Utah
Georgia
Memphis
Boise State
Oklahoma
Appalachian State
Baylor
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Akron
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-Looking at scenarios now, Clemson, Ohio State, and LSU are obviously all in with wins. Any one of them might also be in with a loss. LSU could probably afford it the most just because the loss would be to the team likely to be #4 this week, but I'd lean on Ohio State getting in with a loss too if not too bad. Clemson I'd think would be a nail-biter, but am really not sure.
I actually think tOSU is marginally better off with a loss than LSU. The reason is that if LSU loses to UGA, UGA gets a CFP spot. If Ohio State loses to Wisconsin, the Badgers probably would neither jump tOSU in the rankings nor get a CFP spot.
I agree that the hypothetical loss to #4 UGA would be "better" than the hypothetical loss to #10 UW but in this case that actually makes that loss worse because it moves that team ahead of the hypothetical loser.
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We usually discuss the G5's major bowl bid in this thread so here is my kick-off of that discussion this week:
The ranked (CFP) G5 teams heading into CG's and their opponents are as follows:
- #17 Memphis hosts #20 Cincinnati in the AACCG
- #19 BoiseSt hosts unranked Hawaii in the MWCCG
- #21 ApSt hosts unranked Louisiana in the SunBeltCG
Neither participant is ranked in the MAC and CUSA CG's.
It is probably pretty simple. Memphis is in if they beat Cincy. If Memphis loses then it is between Cincy, BoiseSt (if they beat Hawaii again), and ApSt (if they beat UL again). Barring a massive blowout by one of the three, Boise probably goes ahead of Cincy and ApSt probably has no chance. Cincy might jump Boise with a win over Memphis because that would obviously be a bigger win than Boise's win over Hawaii.
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All three of OSU's ooc opponents made it to their ccg.
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If UGA beat LSU, would the committee struggle to include two teams from the SEC this time?
One could argue that LSU lost their "play in" game and should be out as 12-1 conference champions are available as alternatives. So, does the champion part mean anything? I'm curious, would love to find out.
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the committee would rather LSU wins
otherwise tough decision with someone being left out and VERY angry
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Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. undefeated Ohio State: For the buckeyes, it is not just if they win, but how they look in either a win or a loss. If they can get the #1 seed, it likely means no Clemson in the 1st bowl. Utah/Oklahoma/Baylor would all be strong too, but avoiding Clemson probably preferable. If they were to lose, they can probably still make it as long as they don't lose too badly. For Wisconsin, they are kicking themselves for the Illinois loss still which is what takes this away from being a game for a playoff bowl spot. Still, they are playing for the Rose Bowl here and will probably not get it with a loss (I'd lean to Penn State).
This idea really sucks, and the reason it sucks is that UW would in effect be punished for playing in the CCG, hence playing OSU twice.
PSU would 99% lose to OSU again if they played. So why penalize UW for winning a division, and getting the privilege of playing OSU again?
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CCGs many times punish
but look at all the money!
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CCGs many times punish
but look at all the money!
Think of the Big 12 in 2007. Missouri went 7-1 in conference play, 11-1 overall for the regular season. The Tigers' only loss was to Oklahoma.
Missouri then got to play OU in the CCG, and lost again. OU had lost to mediocre Colorado and pretty good Texas Tech. OU beat Missouri again, so both finished 11-2. OU went to the Fiesta Bowl as conference champs (and got thumped by West Virginia), Mizzou went to the Cotton Bowl and beat Arkansas. But 11-1 Kansas, which Mizzou had beaten during the regular season, got to go to the Orange Bowl, where the Jayhawks beat Va. Tech. Missouri howled in anger over this, as the Orange Bowl was rightly considered the better destination.
I don't doubt that this turn of events was a fateful step in Missouri's ultimate exit from the Big 12.
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and possibly the greatest season this century for the Jayhawks
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we all know the upset in St. Loius in 1996 cost the Big 12 a shot at a national tile
1998 cost wild Bill Snyder a shot at a national title
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So, does the champion part mean anything? I'm curious, would love to find out.
I think, and I think the committee agrees, that the Champion part means a lot more than nothing but it does not mean everything.
The terminology they use when including a non Champion is "unequivocally better".
I interpret that to mean that if it is at all close between a Champion and a non-champion the Committee should and will pick the champion.
IMHO, 12-1 Baylor vs 12-1 LSU (or tOSU) is not remotely close. The Tigers (or Buckeyes) would have more and better quality wins, a better loss and substantially more dominant wins. IMHO, that meets the definition of "unequivocally better".
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What about 12-1 Clemson-v-Baylor? I agree with your point above.
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I think, and I think the committee agrees, that the Champion part means a lot more than nothing but it does not mean everything.
The terminology they use when including a non Champion is "unequivocally better".
I interpret that to mean that if it is at all close between a Champion and a non-champion the Committee should and will pick the champion.
IMHO, 12-1 Baylor vs 12-1 LSU (or tOSU) is not remotely close. The Tigers (or Buckeyes) would have more and better quality wins, a better loss and substantially more dominant wins. IMHO, that meets the definition of "unequivocally better".
In your example, Ohio State's loss to Wisconsin would be better than Bayor's loss to OU?
Not by CFP rankings it wouldn't.
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and possibly the greatest season this century for the Jayhawks
No "possibly" about it, IMO.
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In your example, Ohio State's loss to Wisconsin would be better than Bayor's loss to OU?
Not by CFP rankings it wouldn't.
Yes, I think it would be better by CFP rankings AFTER those hypothetical results happen.
In the current CFP rankings OU is #6 and UW is #8. However, in the scenario I laid out above OU would lose to #7 Baylor while UW would beat #1 tOSU. I have little doubt that if that happens, UW would pass OU in the final rankings.
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In the current CFP rankings OU is #6 and UW is #8. However, in the scenario I laid out above OU would lose to #7 Baylor while UW would beat #1 tOSU. I have little doubt that if that happens, UW would pass OU in the final rankings.
To expand on this a bit, the three 11-2 teams that would exist in this scenario would have remarkably similar losses so it would come down to the quality of their wins, IMHO. The hypothetical scenario:
- Baylor beats Oklahoma in the B12CG, and
- LSU beats Georgia in the SECCG, and
- Wisconsin beats Ohio State in the B1GCG
The three 11-2 teams would be:
- 11-2 B12CG loser Oklahoma, and
- 11-2 SECCG loser Georgia, and
- 11-2 B1GCG winner Wiscosin.
As I said, their losses would be remarkably similar. Each would have a "bad" loss: KSU for OU, USCe for UGA, and ILL for UW. They would also each have a "good" loss to a 13-0 or 12-1 team: Baylor for OU, LSU for UGA, and tOSU for UW.
Wins over currently ranked teams in this hypothetical scenario:
Wisconsin:
- A B1GCG win over a tOSU team that I think would end up ranked #3
- #14 Michigan in a blowout at home
- #16 Iowa close at home
- #18 Minnesota in a blowout on the road
Georgia:
- #9 Florida close at a neutral site
- #11 Auburn close on the road
- #15 Notre Dame close at home
Oklahoma:
- Close on the road over a Baylor team that I think would end up ranked #5 (behind LSU, Clemson, tOSU, and Utah)
- #25 Oklahoma State by 18 points on the road
I listed them in the order that I think they would be ranked.
My best guess at the CFP top-10 if UW, LSU, Clemson, Baylor, and Utah win:
- 13-0 LSU (obviously)
- 13-0 Clemson ditto
- 12-1 Ohio State (because the committee has shown before that when they make a controversial selection they like to put them at #3 so as to minimize the criticism, ie, tOSU at #3 and Washington at #4 so as to avoid ranking Ohio State adjacent to a team they lost H2H to).
- 12-1 Utah
- 12-1 Baylor
- 11-2 Wisconsin
- 11-2 Georgia
- 11-2 Oklahoma
- 10-2 Florida (unchanged)
- 10-2 Penn State (unchanged)
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What about 12-1 Clemson-v-Baylor? I agree with your point above.
Baylor has a better resume this season and should get the nod, but the past 4-5 seasons will be cornsidered and Clamson, the defending champ gets in over Baylor
Clemson's helmet is shinier
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IMHO, 12-1 Baylor vs 12-1 LSU (or tOSU) is not remotely close. The Tigers (or Buckeyes) would have more and better quality wins, a better loss and substantially more dominant wins. IMHO, that meets the definition of "unequivocally better".
I wanted to expand on this a bit because at this point I think that LSU and tOSU are probably locks for the CFP and merely playing for seeding tomorrow. The worst-case-scenario for either would be if both Utah and Oklahoma win their respective CG's (because they are the higher ranked teams). So the hypothetical comparison would be between 12-1 non-champion tOSU and/or LSU and 12-1 P5 Champion Utah and/or Oklahoma or Baylor.
First the losses:
- LSU's loss would be to SEC Champion and CFP bound Georgia.
- tOSU's loss would be to B1G Champion and #~6 Wisconsin
- Baylor's loss was to #~8 Oklahoma
- Utah's loss was to #22 USC
- Oklahoma's loss was to 5-4/8-4 KSU
LSU's loss is clearly the best with Ohio State's and Baylor's not too far behind while Utah's is considerably worse and Oklahoma's is even worse than that.
Wins over ranked teams:
Ohio State:
- #6 Wisconsin in a blowout at home
- #10 Penn State by 11 at home
- #14 Michigan in a blowout on the road
- #20 Cincinnati 42-0 at home
LSU:
- #9 Florida by two TD's at home
- #11 Auburn close at home
- #12 Bama close on the road
Oklahoma:
- #~11 Baylor close on the road
- #25 OkSU by 18 points on the road
Baylor:
- #~8 Oklahoma at a neutral site
- #25 OkSU by 18 points on the road
Utah:
- #~15 Oregon at a neutral site
Thus, not only would LSU and tOSU each have a "better" loss than the other potential contenders for the last two CFP spots, they would also have more and better wins over ranked teams. I believe that the committee would regard those resumes as being "unequivocally better" than hypothetical 12-1 OU, Baylor, or Utah resumes.
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Thanks guys for making this thread.
On CCGs potentially hurting teams, I agree it kind of sucks, but also think that's the cost of going to one. You have the potential from benefiting from winning and thus also the consequences of a loss. I'd take our old format over this but those days sadly are gone.
On the Group of 5 spot, I think after seeing the last ranking, Appalachian State is done. They needed to jump at least Cincinnati last week. UC being only one spot behind Boise State was about a test case senario for them. I think just under 50 percent chance they pass Boise if they win.