CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on October 28, 2019, 11:51:14 AM
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East vs West
Ohio State: 3-0 (Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern)
Penn State: 2-0 (Iowa, Purdue)
Michigan: 2-1 (Illinois, Iowa – loss to Wisconsin)
Indiana: 1-0 (Nebraska)
Michigan State: 1-1 (Northwestern, Loss to Wisconsin)
Maryland: 0-2 (Purdue, Minnesota)
Rutgers: 0-2 (Iowa, Minnesota
East Record: 9-6
Upcoming Games:
Penn State vs. Minnesota
Indiana vs. Northwestern
Indiana vs. Purdue
Michigan State vs. Illinois
Maryland vs. Nebraska
Rutgers vs. Illinois
Could be the most lopsided year since the divisions were created. Thoughts?
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Most of "us" look at how good the top of conferences/divisions are (unless there is only one team) to "judge". Rutgers and UMd obviously will bring down the overall record of the East, but do they really matter?
One could of course eliminate the bottom of the west for parity appropriately.
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My thoughts:
Thanks for compiling the data and posting it.
Not looking promising for the West through the end of the season. This year is a one-year blip for overall record; one of these years the West really needs to win a championship.
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maybe this will be that year
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It would be "fun" if magically Minnesota could upset PSU and Iowa and Wisconsin and then Ohio State.
Not fun for everyone of course. Nobody believes in the Gophers now, probably not even their fans.
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crazy is fun like that
I could get behind it, since my team is out of the conversation
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It would be "fun" if magically Minnesota could upset PSU and Iowa and Wisconsin and then Ohio State.
Not fun for everyone of course. Nobody believes in the Gophers now, probably not even their fans.
If they take out Penn State, I'm not sure that beating Iowa would be an "upset". It is from here, just I think it wouldn't be from there:
- The worldwide leader gives Minnesota a 26.9% chance to beat PSU (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112235).
- The worldwide leader gives Minnesota a 38.2% chance to beat Iowa (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112199).
- The worldwide leader gives Minnesota a 36.8% chance to beat Wisconsin (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112237).
Nobody trusts the Gophers because their best victim is either Nebraska or Illinois.
Their results:
- They beat a 6-2 FCS team (SDSU) by a TD
- They beat a 2-1/4-3 SunBelt team (GaSo) by a FG
- They beat a 0-5/2-6 B1G team (Rutgers) by 35
- They beat a 1-4/3-5 B1G team (Maryland) by 42
- They beat a 1-2/3-4 MWC team (Fresno) by a FG
- They beat a 1-4/2-6 B1G team (Purdue) by a TD
- They beat a 2-3/4-4 B1G team (Illinois) by 23
- They beat a 2-3/4-4 B1G team (Nebraska) by 27
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Yup, we all expect Minny to belly flop, but I'll be pulling for them this weekend. I'm sure that makes a difference.
In the real world though... still, even 9-3 has to be viewed as a good year for them.
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GREAT season
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If they take out Penn State, I'm not sure that beating Iowa would be an "upset". It is from here, just I think it wouldn't be from there:
- The worldwide leader gives Minnesota a 26.9% chance to beat PSU (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112235).
- The worldwide leader gives Minnesota a 38.2% chance to beat Iowa (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112199).
- The worldwide leader gives Minnesota a 36.8% chance to beat Wisconsin (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112237).
Nobody trusts the Gophers because their best victim is either Nebraska or Illinois.
Their results:
- They beat a 6-2 FCS team (SDSU) by a TD
- They beat a 2-1/4-3 SunBelt team (GaSo) by a FG
- They beat a 0-5/2-6 B1G team (Rutgers) by 35
- They beat a 1-4/3-5 B1G team (Maryland) by 42
- They beat a 1-2/3-4 MWC team (Fresno) by a FG
- They beat a 1-4/2-6 B1G team (Purdue) by a TD
- They beat a 2-3/4-4 B1G team (Illinois) by 23
- They beat a 2-3/4-4 B1G team (Nebraska) by 27
If we look at their season in order, it looks a little different...as they gROW!
- They beat a 6-2 FCS team (SDSU) by a TD
- They beat a 1-2/3-4 MWC team (Fresno) by a FG
- They beat a 2-1/4-3 SunBelt team (GaSo) by a FG
- They beat a 1-4/2-6 B1G team (Purdue) by a TD
- They beat a 2-3/4-4 B1G team (Illinois) by 23
- They beat a 2-3/4-4 B1G team (Nebraska) by 27
- They beat a 0-5/2-6 B1G team (Rutgers) by 35
- They beat a 1-4/3-5 B1G team (Maryland) by 42
In the month of October, Gophers D gave up only 3 TDs- all in the 4th Q. Illinois offense scored 3 pts; Nebraska scored their TD after it was 34-0; Rutgers & Maryland scored against the 2nd string.
If the Gophers do what everyone expects, did you have them at 9-3 in August?
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Yup, we all expect Minny to belly flop, but I'll be pulling for them this weekend. I'm sure that makes a difference.
In the real world though... still, even 9-3 has to be viewed as a good year for them.
Let us know how that comes out for ya.
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Oh, you will know
apparently, you're pulling for the East?
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Agree the West is not looking good this year. Iowa needed to beat at least 1 out of PSU or Mich and then the divisions would look more even. But of course they didn't and the East is now running away with it.
A funny thing happened last year when it looked like the East was going to clinch early with a 3 game lead, but then Neb upset MSU 9-6, then Purdue beat Indy, and all of a sudden it came down to the CCG, which of course the East won again.
2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018 the east-west race was close enough that it all came down to the CCG, which the East has won every time.
2017 was really the only year when the East dominated the overall cross-division record.
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Huskers loss to the Hoosiers at home last week didn't help the West
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I'll watch any of them line up if it's a close/hard fought game
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I stil have a hunch that the Big Ten is going to get rid of divisions for the 2022 season and just have the 2 best teams play in the CCG. This would require a NCAA rule change but I believe all the conferences will be on board soon.
The AAC has already been granted a waiver to do this in 2020 after UConn leaves, and the AAC is left with 11 teams.
I believe 2022 is the magic year because 2021 is the end of a 6-year cycle where everybody plays everybody twice, once at home, once away.
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A thing I like about divisions is that a program like Northwestern can claim a West Title (and did) as a thing. They would have little chance to make the CG otherwise.
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A thing I like about divisions is that a program like Northwestern can claim a West Title (and did) as a thing. They would have little chance to make the CG otherwise.
I disagree. Although the schedules won't exactly be the same, they won't be dramatically different if you go with a divisonless schedule with 5 permanent rivals.
Without divisions last year, OSU, Mich and NW woud have finished in a 3-way tie for first at 8-1. So then the question is how would they have broke the tie since OSU and NW did not play in the regular season. I have a hunch OSU and Mich would have made the CCG because
1) OSU beat Mich
2) Mich beat NW
3) OSU and Mich were ranked higher
4) NW sucked in OOC games
So I can"t see NW winning many tiebreakers last year, but in the end it did come down to the tiebreaker. Who knows, if NW plays PSU instead of Mich, maybe they beat PSU and finish 9-0. It could have easily happened with a slight tweak in the schedule.
If you go back to 2014-2018, I think the only time the 2 teams would have been different in the CCG would have been
2016 (would have been OSU-PSU rematch instead of PSU-Wisc)
and 2018 (OSU-Mich rematch instead of OSU-NW)
The other 3 years, it would have been the same 2 teams in the CCG.
2014 (Wisc-OSU)
2015 (Iowa-MSU)
2017 (Wisc-OSU)
Although I will concede that 2015 Iowa had a ridiculously easy schedule, skipping OSU, Mich, PSU and MSU in the regular season.
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The thing I like about divisions is that at least you play a fairly similar schedule as your division mates. 2/3 of your conference games will be the same, and even that can sometimes result in lopsidedness. If you open it up completely, the schedule disparities would be greater.
I agree though, it's coming. Although what I disagree with is the timing. I think the impetus will be the CFP going to 8, and including all 5 conference champions, and the conferences not wanting to risk a 4 loss division champ pulling an upset and getting into the CFP.
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NW can claim a West Championship, which is a thing for them.
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NW can claim a West Championship, which is a thing for them.
That's true, but in a divisionless system, wouldn't an appearance in the CCG be considered equivalent to a division championship? Would teams hang a banner for somethiing like that? Not sure. But its definitely something you would bring up on a coach's or team's resume. The Number of times you went to the CCG.
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So I can"t see NW winning many tiebreakers last year, but in the end it did come down to the tiebreaker. Who knows, if NW plays PSU instead of Mich, maybe they beat PSU and finish 9-0. It could have easily happened with a slight tweak in the schedule.
In this scenario I think they still would have made it even if they LOST to PSU. The usual first tiebreaker is H2H2H. If NU had lost to PSU then all three would have been 8-1 and the H2H2H would have been:
- 1-0 Ohio State
- 0-0 Northwestern
- 0-1 Michigan
I'm pretty sure Ohio State and Northwestern would go to the CG and Michigan would get left out.
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In a divisionless system, a program like NW would have far less of a chance of a CG appearance IMHO. So would Iowa as things stand today.
It's one thing I like about divisions, lesser programs have a better chance of "winning" a something. It's a bit like how Missouri won the SEC East twice. That's a thing for them, they probably have a banner or something. For OSU and PSU and Michigan, it's likely a nothing but a painful CG loss.
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The thing I like about divisions is that at least you play a fairly similar schedule as your division mates. 2/3 of your conference games will be the same, and even that can sometimes result in lopsidedness. If you open it up completely, the schedule disparities would be greater.
I agree though, it's coming. Although what I disagree with is the timing. I think the impetus will be the CFP going to 8, and including all 5 conference champions, and the conferences not wanting to risk a 4 loss division champ pulling an upset and getting into the CFP.
I agree that the schedule disparities would be MUCH greater in a divisionless system. As it is now, we have 14 teams so there are 13 possible opponents and each team plays nine and misses four. In a divisionless system that could be HUGE. If MSU got stuck playing the toughest nine and Ohio State lucked into the easiest nine they would only have five middling opponents in common.
On your other point, would that really be a bad thing? I'm assuming that when (not if) they go to eight it will be:
- The five P5 Champions,
- The highest ranked G5 Champion, and
- The two highest ranked teams not already included.
Hypothetical using this year:
- Suppose that Ohio State wins out to the CG and enters the CG 12-0 and ranked #2 (behind 12-0 Bama/LSU).
- Suppose that Minnesota tanks while the Iowa/Wisconsin winner loses another game and the B1G-W Champion ends up being a 10-3 Wisconsin.
- Suppose that 10-3 Wisconsin upsets Ohio State in a rematch in the CG.
If that happened Wisconsin would get into the hypothetical eight-team playoff but Ohio State would probably get in as well. At 12-1 with a CG loss to a team that they blew out earlier in the year they would have to be a very strong candidate. Looking at the current AP Poll:
- The Bama/LSU loser could finish 11-1 and ahead of Ohio State.
- In theory the Bama/LSU winner could lose the SECCG and also finish ahead of Ohio State.
- #4 Clemson's SoS is so weak that I can't see a 12-1 Clemson finishing ahead of a 12-1 Ohio State.
- #5 Penn State could theoretically finish 11-1 but: First, I don't think they would finish ahead of Ohio State being 1/2 game down and with a H2H loss, and second even if they did that isn't a bad thing for the conference as a whole.
- #6 Florida can't finish with one loss without winning the SEC and they wouldn't likely finish ahead of Ohio State with two or more losses.
- #7 Oregon can't finish with one loss without winning the PAC and they wouldn't finish ahead of Ohio State with two or more losses.
- #8 Georgia can't finish with one loss without winning the SEC and they wouldn't likely finish ahead of Ohio State with two or more losses.
- #9 Utah can't finish with one loss without winning the PAC and they wouldn't finish ahead of Ohio State with two or more losses.
- #10 Oklahoma can't finish with one loss without winning the B12 and they wouldn't finish ahead of Ohio Sate with two or more losses.
Granted, the situation is VERY different if Ohio State loses to Michigan because an 11-2 non-champion Ohio State coming off of back-to-back losses would have effectively no chance at the CFP but in that case PSU might get a second bid for the league.
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That's true, but in a divisionless system, wouldn't an appearance in the CCG be considered equivalent to a division championship? Would teams hang a banner for somethiing like that? Not sure. But its definitely something you would bring up on a coach's or team's resume. The Number of times you went to the CCG.
no banners
and in this situation the Wildcats would need to finish ahead of 3 of the 4 of Michigan, Penn St., Ohio St., AND Wiscy.
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I agree that the schedule disparities would be MUCH greater in a divisionless system. As it is now, we have 14 teams so there are 13 possible opponents and each team plays nine and misses four. In a divisionless system that could be HUGE. If MSU got stuck playing the toughest nine and Ohio State lucked into the easiest nine they would only have five middling opponents in common.
I love the implied [and likely unintentional, although you ARE a Buckeye fan] dig at Michigan here.
Since you know that MSU and OSU will both have Michigan as a permanent rival, that is consigning them to be the within the "5 middling opponents" classification every year.
If that was intentional, well played! :bravo_2:
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and even if it wasn't intentional
bravo!
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I love the implied [and likely unintentional, although you ARE a Buckeye fan] dig at Michigan here.
Since you know that MSU and OSU will both have Michigan as a permanent rival, that is consigning them to be the within the "5 middling opponents" classification every year.
If that was intentional, well played! :bravo_2:
and even if it wasn't intentional
bravo!
LoL, thanks guys! It was quasi-intentional. When I initially typed it, it wasn't intentional. However, before I posted it, I looked at the Power Rankings that I was working on updating. I was going to use the current Power Rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-9-11920/) as an example. However, when I looked at the rankings I noticed that Michigan was #4 so they wouldn't be included in my hypothetical Ohio State schedule of the worst nine teams in the conference. I realized, of course, that Ohio State and Michigan would be permanent rivals so the example didn't work. THEN I realized that if I just left the statement alone with no example it would, as @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) stated, "consign Michigan to be within the '5 middling opponents' classification every year." I liked that!
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2016 (would have been OSU-PSU rematch instead of OSU-Wisc)
and 2018 (OSU-Mich rematch instead of OSU-NW)
The other 3 years, it would have been the same 2 teams in the CCG.
2014 (Wisc-OSU)
2015 (Iowa-MSU)
2017 (Wisc-OSU)
Uh, the 2016 Conference championship was between PSU and Wisconsin. OSU lost to PSU.
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Uh, the 2016 Conference championship was between PSU and Wisconsin. OSU lost to PSU.
Good catch. I knew that. Not sure why I typed OSU instead of PSU. Anyway, I fixed it. Thanks
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1. It would be "fun" if magically Minnesota could upset Iowa .
2. Not fun for everyone of course.
1. False
2. True
You scored 50. You failed the test.
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and 2018 (OSU-Mich rematch instead of OSU-NW)
I doubt many, or any of us, want to see an OSU-Mich matchup in back-to-back weeks. The beauty of the current divisions is this disaster cannot occur.
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In a divisionless system, a program like NW would have far less of a chance of a CG appearance IMHO. So would Iowa as things stand today.
It's one thing I like about divisions, lesser programs have a better chance of "winning" a something. It's a bit like how Missouri won the SEC East twice. That's a thing for them, they probably have a banner or something.
For every Northwestern, there are Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland that are mired in muck, and can't hope to overcome Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and sometimes Michigan State. Still, I prefer the divisions. Now if we changed the divisions, but kept Neb., Iowa, Minn. and Wisc. together I would be okay with a little realignment from time-to-time. These four need to stick together.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIdUeWtW4AEsC5Y?format=jpg&name=small)
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Illinois should beat NW and make it. Anyone else?
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Illinois should beat NW and make it. Anyone else?
MSU still has Illinois and Maryland at home, and Rutgers on the road. You'd hope they can win 2 of those 3 and get in.
I don't think they will, but I wouldn't say Nebraska is absolutely out either. If they win in College Park, and then beat Iowa at home, I wouldn't be totally shocked.
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that would salvage the season for me as I live in Iowa
and obviously Frost and staff really need the extra bowl practices
I'd certainly bet against beating Iowa in Lincoln, but stranger things have happened
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MSU still has Illinois and Maryland at home, and Rutgers on the road. You'd hope they can win 2 of those 3 and get in.
I don't think they will, but I wouldn't say Nebraska is absolutely out either. If they win in College Park, and then beat Iowa at home, I wouldn't be totally shocked.
The 2019 team doesn't seem upset about being ok. I'm not saying Frost lost them, rather, they give a level of effort/focus that is ok rather than good. OK makes plays. OK also results in a WR lining up wrong on a 4th and 1.
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execution and effort (nastiness) are lacking
need smarter, tougher players
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East vs West
Ohio State: 3-0 (Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern)
Penn State: 2-0 (Iowa, Purdue)
Michigan: 2-1 (Illinois, Iowa – loss to Wisconsin)
Indiana: 1-0 (Nebraska)
Michigan State: 1-1 (Northwestern, Loss to Wisconsin)
Maryland: 0-2 (Purdue, Minnesota)
Rutgers: 0-2 (Iowa, Minnesota
East Record: 9-6
Upcoming Games:
Penn State vs. Minnesota
Indiana vs. Northwestern
Indiana vs. Purdue
Michigan State vs. Illinois
Maryland vs. Nebraska
Rutgers vs. Illinois
Could be the most lopsided year since the divisions were created. Thoughts?
As of 11/23/2019, the East-West record is even.
Final interdivision regular season game is Indiana @ Purdue.
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As of 11/23/2019, the East-West record is even.
Final interdivision regular season game is Indiana @ Purdue.
I think the key turning point was the Saturday when Minny upset PSU and ILL upset MSU. That was supposed to be the day the East clinched it but instead by the end of the day the East lead had shrunk to just 1 game.
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Boiler UP!
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As of 11/23/2019, the East-West record is even.
Final interdivision regular season game is Indiana @ Purdue.
I didn't double-check the figures, I'm just assuming that Hawk was right. Thus, the B1G-E now holds a one game lead heading into the CG. The East wins with a tOSU win and it is a tie with a UW win.
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many times comes down to the last 1 or 2 games
much of the time going to the East
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Medina, I got a new puzzle for you.
If the Big Ten had no divisions this year and the rules said the 2 best teams make the CCG, then who would go to the CCG?
OSU 9-0 obviously
Wisc 7-2
Minn 7-2
PSU 7-2
So H2H, Wiscy beat Minny, Minny beat PSU, but PSU did not play Wiscy.
Wiscy also lost to OSU and ILL. PSU also lost to OSU. Minny also to Iowa.
All 3 are 10=2 overall
So who would go to the CCG?
Edit: so here is a guess. They would need to find the highest ranked opponent that they all played, which would be 6-3 iowa. Wiscy and PSU both beat Iowa and Minny lost to Iowa. So Minny drops out.
Next Wiscy and PSU need to find the highest ranked opponent they both played
Both lost to OSU
Wiscy beat Minny while PSU lost to Minny
So Wiscy goes to the CCG?
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sounds reasonable
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I think the more likely tie breaker would be highest ranked team according to the playoff committee.
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Probably. I'm thinking it will be close when it comes out tonight. AP and coaches both have UW ahead right now.
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I think the more likely tie breaker would be highest ranked team according to the playoff committee.
But can they wait till Tuesday night to name the team playing in the CCG? I don't think so.
Although maybe they could use the Massey composite computer rankings instead. or maybe even use the old BCS rankings, using the coaches and AP polls for the human polls.
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the conference shouldn't rely on the playoff committee to break ties
find a way to use performance on the field
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Medina, I got a new puzzle for you.
If the Big Ten had no divisions this year and the rules said the 2 best teams make the CCG, then who would go to the CCG?
OSU 9-0 obviously
Wisc 7-2
Minn 7-2
PSU 7-2
So H2H, Wiscy beat Minny, Minny beat PSU, but PSU did not play Wiscy.
Wiscy also lost to OSU and ILL. PSU also lost to OSU. Minny also to Iowa.
All 3 are 10=2 overall
So who would go to the CCG?
Edit: so here is a guess. They would need to find the highest ranked opponent that they all played, which would be 6-3 iowa. Wiscy and PSU both beat Iowa and Minny lost to Iowa. So Minny drops out.
Next Wiscy and PSU need to find the highest ranked opponent they both played
Both lost to OSU
Wiscy beat Minny while PSU lost to Minny
So Wiscy goes to the CCG?
Here is the current divisional tiebreaker (https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx).
If we just assume that they would use that, then the steps would be:
Step 1:
H2H2H among the tied teams:
- 1-0 Wisconsin, beat Minnesota
- 1-1 Minnesota, beat PSU, lost to UW
- 0-1 Penn State, lost to Minnesota
That settles it, Wisconsin goes based on their superior H2H2H record.
In the football tiebreaker they assume that all teams will have played each other because the tie could only be between teams that did. However, in the BB tiebreaker (https://bigten.org/news/2019/9/12/2020-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx), they stipulate that 2-0 is better than 3-1 but that 2-0 is NOT better than 1-0. In this case it doesn't matter. 1-0 is obviously better than either 1-1 or 0-1 so it would be Wisconsin without further considerations.
IF Wisconsin had lost to PSU instead of IL then all three would be 1-1 against each other. Only then would the next step be used.
Step 2:
Record against the best team in the league, then the next, etc:
I'm not sure how this would work because their records against the top team are:
- 0-1 Wisconsin
- 0-1 Penn State
- 0-0 Minnesota
According to step 6 (b) of the football tiebreaker when comparing records against the best team(s) in the other division, 1-0 IS better than 0-0. That probably means that 0-0 is also better than 0-1 but I REALLY don't like that result. That would mean, effectively, that UW and PSU would be penalized for their tougher schedule of having to play Ohio State and Minnesota would get the CG bid. OTOH, that does make some sense if you consider that UW and PSU each already had a shot at tOSU but MN didn't.
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no voter's opinions needed
thank God
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Thank Medina.