CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 22, 2019, 10:30:32 AM
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B1G-East:
- 4-0 Ohio State: Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Penn State and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 4-0 Penn State: Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Ohio State and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 3-2 Michigan: Needs a lot of help: With their loss to PSU, Michigan's shortest route to Indianapolis is for PSU to lose exactly two divisional games, tOSU to lose exactly one non-divisional game, and the Wolverines to win the rest of their conference games. That would create a three-way tie at 7-2 between the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions and the Wolverines would ultimately win that tie.
- 2-2 Indiana: Needs a lot of help: Both of their losses are divisional (MSU, tOSU) so there are not a lot of winning tiebreaker scenarios for the Hoosiers. They pretty much need tOSU to lose three game plus PSU to lose at least one in addition to winning out.
- 1-3 Maryland: Needs a lot of miracles: They have two divisional losses (PSU, IU) and one of them is to a team three games ahead of them in the standings so they are in 'need a miracle' territory.
- 0-5 Rutgers: Mathematically eliminated: The tOSU/PSU winner can do no worse than 5-4 while RU can do no better than 4-5 so the Scarlet Knights are out.
B1G-West:
- 4-0 Minnesota: Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Wisconsin and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis. They could also lose any two games other than Wisconsin or Iowa and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 3-1 Wisconsin: The loss to Illinois doesn't dent the Badgers' chances all that much since the Illini are still two games back in the standings but the problem it creates is that it doesn't leave the Badgers much margin for error particularly if they can't bounce back with a win in Columbus this week. The Badgers host Iowa which should help but they travel to Minnesota for the Ax game Thanksgiving weekend. That could be for a spot in Indianapolis.
- 2-2 Iowa: The good news is that both losses (PSU, M) are non-divisional. The bad news is that there are two of them. Iowa controls their own destiny so long as Minnesota loses at least once but the Hawkeyes have to travel to Madison in two weeks.
- 2-2 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers lost H2H to Minnesota and trail them by two games so they have almost no chance. They would likely need three Gopher losses even if they won out.
- 1-3 Purdue: The Boilermakers lost H2H to Minnesota and trail them by three games so they have almost no chance. They would need a ton of help even if they won out.
- 1-3 Illinois: See Purdue, their situation is nearly identical.
- 0-4 Northwestern: The Wildcats have divisional losses to teams that are two (UNL) and three (UW) games ahead of them in the standings which means that their chances are effectively nil.
Bowl Position:
- 7-0 Ohio State: clinched
- 7-0 Penn State: clinched
- 7-0 Minnesota: clinched
- 6-1 Wisconsin: clinched
- 5-2 Michigan: The Wolverines only need one more win so they should easily make it but their remaining games are each at least somewhat tricky. They have three home games but the opponents are #3 tOSU, #8 ND, and the rival Spartans. They have two road games but Maryland is schizophrenic and Indiana might be poised to finally pull off an upset?
- 5-2 Indiana: The Hoosiers only need one more win but none of their remaining games looks like a gimmie to me.
- 5-2 Iowa: The Hawkeyes only need one more win and they still have Illinois on the schedule so they should be good, right? Ask Wisconsin.
- 4-3 Michigan State: The Spartans' major problem is a brutal schedule. The three teams that they lost to are currently ranked #3, #13, and #24 and yet they still have #6 and #19 left. They do have a trip to Rutgers and home games against Illinois and Maryland remaining so they should make it.
- 4-3 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers' game against Indiana this weekend could be key. If they lose that they'll need a win at Maryland and either a win at Purdue of a major upset of either UW or IA.
- 3-4 Maryland: The Terps need to win three of their last five. Unfortunately, three of their last five are currently ranked and three of their last five are on the road. I don't see it.
- 3-4 Illinois: Even with the upset over Wisconsin and Rutgers still on the schedule this is a reach. Assuming that the Illini beat Rutgers, they'll still need two addition wins. It doesn't look as daunting as it did last week but we'll know a lot more after they play Purdue on Saturday.
- 2-5 Purdue: The Boilermakers looked great against Maryland and they were competitive in Iowa City but it may be too little too late. They need to win four of their last five which basically means that they can lose in Madison but they need to be perfect otherwise.
- 1-5 Northwestern: The Wildcats need to be near-perfect from here out, that is a very tall order.
- 1-6 Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights might beat Liberty this weekend but they aren't going to go 2-0 against Ohio State and Penn State so no bowl for them.
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How would you rank the chances of Maryland, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern in order of likeliness?
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How would you rank the chances of Maryland, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern in order of likeliness?
Illinois
Purdue
Maryland
Northwestern
I don't know where it stands for each of these teams academically, but 5 wins might be enough depending on spots available.
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How would you rank the chances of Maryland, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern in order of likeliness?
In terms of B1GCG appearance they are all statistically indistinguishable from zero and therefore all effectively equal.
In terms of getting to 6-6:
- 3-4 Illinois: The Illini need three more wins and they have Rutgers, Purdue, and Northwestern on their remaining schedule. It wouldn't take any miracles.
- 2-5 Purdue: The Boilermakers need four more wins and they have four reasonably winnable games remaining (IL, UNL, @NU, IU).
- 1-5 Northwestern: The Wildcats need five more wins and that clearly will not be easy but @IU, UMASS, vsPU, and @IL are all winnable. That leaves vsIA (this weekend) and vsMN (11/23). If they win the four games that I categorized as "winnable" and pull off an upset in one of the other two they'll make it.
- 3-4 Maryland: By record the Terps are as close as Illinois but, as I mentioned above, their five remaining games include three ranked opponents and three road games.
After this weekend:
- The Illinois/Purdue winner: 4-4 Illinois or 3-5 Purdue would look like a decent bet.
- Northwestern . . . if they beat Iowa: At 2-5 the Wildcats could make it without any major upsets (and possibly without any upsets at all).
- Maryland . . . if they beat Minnesota: At 4-4 the Terps would still need two more wins but UNL and MSU aren't unbeatable and who knows, maybe they could pull another upset.
- The Illinois/Purdue loser: 3-5 Illinois or 2-6 Purdue would need some serious upsets to get there.
- Northwestern . . . if they lose to Iowa: At 1-6 the Wildcats would need to win their last five straight.
- Maryland . . . if they lose to Minnesota: At 3-5 the Terps would be in a world of trouble needing to be near-perfect down the stretch against daunting opposition.
Illinois
Purdue
Maryland
Northwestern
I don't know where it stands for each of these teams academically, but 5 wins might be enough depending on spots available.
I specifically excluded the 5-win thing by stating "getting to 6-6" in my response because I don't know enough about the mechanics of the 5-win thing to offer an opinion.
As you can see, I like Northwestern's chances better than Maryland's simply because I think Northwestern has an easier remaining schedule. Northwestern's six remaining games include an OOC pastry (UMASS) and only two ranked teams and two road games compared to UMD's three ranked opponents and three road games. Additionally, NU's two remaining ranked opponents are #17 and #20 while UMD's three are #3, #17, and #19.
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The Spartans?