CFB51 College Football Fan Community

The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2017, 04:51:07 PM

Title: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2017, 04:51:07 PM

Well, I was going to post a picture of how wonderful SoCal weather is right now, but uploading/posting pictures isn't as easy as the old board.

So we'll start with this:

Global Temperature Update (http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/02/global-temperature-update.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 03, 2017, 05:23:10 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on February 03, 2017, 04:51:07 PM

Well, I was going to post a picture of how wonderful SoCal weather is right now, but uploading/posting pictures isn't as easy as the old board.

So we'll start with this:

Global Temperature Update (http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/02/global-temperature-update.html)

I love awesome weather.  Git 80 at my house two days ago.  Supposed to be 90 on Tuesday.

You know, real honest-to-goodness FOOTBALL WEATHER!  8)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 19, 2017, 09:50:42 PM

testing to see if I broke anything.....

this thing WILL be ready by June when the debtors server goes offline, hide and watch.... and all of it will work as expected.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 19, 2017, 09:51:16 PM

that part worked^..... let's see if this one does!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 11, 2017, 09:06:10 AM

Things seem to be delayed about two or three weeks this year.  Corn was not knee high by the 4th of July.  Lightening bugs have just started showing up.  Scapes on the garlic in early July instead of early June.  All these things indicate that a new ice age is imminent.

(https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GISS2001_2015.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2017, 09:42:34 AM

Some record flooding going on in NE Illinois and SE Wisconsin right now.

It was a challenge to get to Kenosha yesterday. Most of the E-W roads in Illinois were closed due to overtopping. The bridges are higher in Wisconsin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 16, 2017, 10:25:25 AM

Research Team Slams Global Warming Data In New Report: "Not Reality... Totally Inconsistent With Credible Temperature Data"

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi0.wp.com%2Fshtfplan.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F07%2Fglobal-warming-data1.jpg%3Fresize%3D560%252C264&hash=129b5f71ef1968ed6e0a269c6deee3a0)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-15/research-team-slams-global-warming-data-new-report-not-reality-totally-inconsistent- (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-15/research-team-slams-global-warming-data-new-report-not-reality-totally-inconsistent-)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 07, 2017, 09:14:28 AM

TEMPERATURE READINGS PLUNGE AFTER AUSTRALIA’S BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ORDERS END TO ‘TAMPERING’ http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/08/04/temperatures-plunge-after-australias-bureau-of-meteorology-orders-fix/ (http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/08/04/temperatures-plunge-after-australias-bureau-of-meteorology-orders-fix/)


As one comment on the story suggests, it's more proof that climate change is indeed man made.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 07, 2017, 11:42:28 AM

http://theconversation.com/climate-change-to-blame-for-australias-july-heat-81953

Kind of interesting reading about winter in July.  In any event, sounds unusually warm.  Almost as if there might be something going on ... :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 17, 2017, 08:39:29 AM

British explorer sets sail for the North Pole. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-40935252/pen-hadow-sets-sail-for-north-pole-as-arctic-ice-melts (http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-40935252/pen-hadow-sets-sail-for-north-pole-as-arctic-ice-melts) 

"They are unsure how far North they will be able to sail." 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2017, 09:05:09 AM

One issue I see with climate change is nuts and bolts, e.g., how do enough fast enough to make much difference. 


We could implement a shift to nuclear power in 15 years or so for electricity (globally) but that won't happen.  The rate at which more wind and solar can contribute from a very low base is simply not fast enough even if we through money at it.


If we went to zero carbon today, globally, we'd still have significant climate change, according to the various models.  If every country met the Paris targets, the reduction in global temperatures would be rather small, again using the models.


I see politicians signing agreements because that's what they do, but real tangible progress to reducing carbon to me looks like something that won't happen fast enough to "stop" these trends.  The one thing that might intercept and make a difference would be if ITER works and we can somehow developed practicable fusion reactors in a decade, but that also looks unlikely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2017, 10:25:47 AM

https://www.iter.org/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 17, 2017, 01:02:48 PM

Rainless in Seattle: http://www.kiro7.com/news/local/record-dry-streak-ends-rainfall-returns-to-seattle/590452989

"Late Saturday night, the streak of 55 consecutive dry days at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport ended with 0.02" inches measured. Rainfall continued throughout the pacific northwest Sunday morning. The previous record of 51 days was set in 1951."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on August 17, 2017, 01:29:41 PM

The climate will change regardless of human interference, it always has, always will.  The rate of change from human activity is difficult to quantify.  The actual change has been less than most models show, although the rate of change has increased since the industrial revolution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2017, 08:54:53 PM

stay safe in Texas during the Hurricane

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2017, 08:28:43 PM

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1987/02/23/atchafalaya


Read it. Think about it. No more levees and dams. Take them all out, and move people out of harm's way.

Low lying cities need to mitigate the many years of mistakes made on stormwater management. The time is now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2017, 11:38:48 PM

folks are drawn to the waterfront for a reason

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 06:54:13 AM

Some waters are safe to live on, such as the Great Lakes. Others, not so much. We do not have gills.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 29, 2017, 08:02:33 AM

The cost to rebuild much of Houston and flooded TX and LA communities will be enormous.  I don't think one can count on going another 12 years before the next major hurricane hits the US and this repeats.  Not sure what the answer is.  There's a reason why there is so much industry along the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on August 29, 2017, 09:03:59 AM

Settlements were built near water because water is the most cost effective way to move large quantities of goods.  That hasn't changed.  The working class that keeps that industry moving cannot afford a long commute and has to live near the water's edge.  That puts in in harm's way when a hurricane hits.  Moving everyone inland is not going to be a viable solution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 29, 2017, 09:33:23 AM

Isaac's Storm, which is about the Galveston hurricane a hundred years ago, is a pretty quick and good read.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 09:53:15 AM

The cost of moving populations away from flood plains is obviously something that means it won't happen aside from some sparsely populated areas that are in bad shape.

We think we can control Nature, still.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 10:15:17 AM

There are solutions. People just refuse to open their minds to them for fear of change.

Insanity prevails.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 11:22:23 AM

It boggles my mind to try and think about what this would mean in Cincinnati alone.

Covington, KY sits behind large dikes and of course the Ohio River is made navigable only by use of dams.

The 1937 Cincinnati flood was major for this part of the world.

The flood plain on which much of Cincy is located has a small river running through the middle of it that the Ohio backs into during floods except for the flood gates.  They pump the Mill Creek water over the flood gate in effect to prevent flooding.

It works.  I have seen one or two rather large floods here in my life in Cincy but nothing that did much damage to infrastructure.  Without all of the dikes, the Cincy flood plain would have to be abandoned.

That would be almost all of the built up urban area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 11:39:23 AM

Mother Nature wants her floodplain back, and she also wants America's Wetland back.

There would be no flooding whatsoever if the full storage in floodplains were available.

Think big, start small.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2017, 12:27:55 PM

Outside the larger discussion, I spent too much of this morning reading up on the Cajun Navy. 

What a bunch of God damn heros. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on August 29, 2017, 12:34:51 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 11:39:23 AM

Mother Nature wants her floodplain back, and she also wants America's Wetland back.

There would be no flooding whatsoever if the full storage in floodplains were available.

Think big, start small.

To clear all the floodplains, you would have to relocate about 70% of all urban areas.  But you are correct, levees built to hold back water in one area increase the impact on the areas up and downstream of the levee.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 12:41:04 PM

As I said, I can't begin to imagine how Cincy would do this, ever.  There isn't even a "start small" notional concept around.

It's not going to happen, so I guess thinking about it is futile anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 01:17:31 PM

Quote from: Geolion91 on August 29, 2017, 12:34:51 PM

To clear all the floodplains, you would have to relocate about 70% of all urban areas.  But you are correct, levees built to hold back water in one area increase the impact on the areas up and downstream of the levee.

I know I'm correct. I do floodplain work for a living.

The entire Mississippi is constrained by levees. Start there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 01:22:41 PM

Just remove the levies and then what?  Would this not mean moving millions of people and thousands of buildings and cost hundreds of trillions of dollars?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 02:16:29 PM

There is a whole lot of real estate between Minneapolis and New Orleans that is uninhabited or sparsely populated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 29, 2017, 02:23:38 PM

And just how do you propose this? There's a bunch of sparsely populated real estate, yes. With no homes. No schools. No infrastructure. So all of that needs to be built from scratch.

And then what? You just tell people they have to move? Who pays for it? What if they refuse? What if the people who *aren't* in floodplains don't want to move out of the city they know and love but everyone else is being forcibly evacuated?

I respect your position that these cities should never have been built where they are. But sometimes the cost of changing a situation far exceeds the cost of dealing with the floods when they occur.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 29, 2017, 02:26:05 PM

Tired of Hurricanes? 

Come on up to Tornado alley. 

They may be more frequent and deadly, but they have a much narrower path of destruction. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 02:28:22 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 29, 2017, 02:23:38 PM

And just how do you propose this? There's a bunch of sparsely populated real estate, yes. With no homes. No schools. No infrastructure. So all of that needs to be built from scratch.

And then what? You just tell people they have to move? Who pays for it? What if they refuse? What if the people who *aren't* in floodplains don't want to move out of the city they know and love but everyone else is being forcibly evacuated?

I respect your position that these cities should never have been built where they are. But sometimes the cost of changing a situation far exceeds the cost of dealing with the floods when they occur.

You misunderstood my point. The point is that there is a lot of land protected by levee that does not need to be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 29, 2017, 04:24:43 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 02:28:22 PM

You misunderstood my point. The point is that there is a lot of land protected by levee that does not need to be.

Ahh. I thought you were talking about moving people out of floodplains in very populous areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 04:36:28 PM

In certain areas (New Orleans is first on the list) I would propose doing that. Not only do you have storm surge risk, but you have floodplain risk from the Mississippi and surrounding lakes.

Hurricane Katrina cost $250 billion (estimates vary but this is on the low side). Roughly 400,000 people live there. That's $625,000.00 per person - and it's not done yet.

Terrible decision to rebuild those parts of the city (around 90 percent of it) that are subject to inundation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2017, 09:42:05 AM

The French Quarter did not flood, or so I was told.  

Downtown NOLA looks like most downtown districts today.

They recovered.  They aren't going to move.  It may be fine in theory, but it simply is not going to happen.

Cincinnati isn't going to move either.

The dikes will stay in place.  Maybe some protecting farm land could be eliminated, but the flood waters may reach towns if that happens depending.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2017, 09:51:38 AM

Right, and at the time, I told anyone who would listen that the FQ could stay, but the rest, not so much.

I walked away from a very lucrative project (West Closure Complex) with the Army Corps of Engineers because I didn't believe in what they were doing. My partner about killed me but I just couldn't be a part of it.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/

All that money and it still won't solve the problem if something more than a Cat 3 hits NO again, or a rain like Houston just got, or back-to-back heavy rains, or or or...

This is not sustainable. Doing something for nothing is what they did. We need to do something for something.

Doing nothing would have been better in this instance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2017, 11:11:35 AM

You likely are right in some ideal scenario, but it just won't happen.  Nobody is seriously even talking about it.

Control is going to be the attempt even if it fails on occasion.

Downtown Cincy would flood every couple of years without the levies and the pumps for the Mill Creek.  With those devices, it never floods.  Of course we don't have hurricanes, though Hurricane Ike did a surprisingly amount of "dry damage" with high wins a few years ago, no rain, but very high winds.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: rolltidefan on September 01, 2017, 04:58:46 PM

Quote from: Temp430 on August 29, 2017, 08:02:33 AM

The cost to rebuild much of Houston and flooded TX and LA communities will be enormous.  I don't think one can count on going another 12 years before the next major hurricane hits the US and this repeats.  Not sure what the answer is.  There's a reason why there is so much industry along the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi.

it might not last another 12 days. irma is a cat 3 and still in mid atlantic. lots of uncertainty on path still, but decent chance it moves into gulf and makes us landfall, likely as a high cat 4 or cat 5 if it does that. this one has a chance to be a monster. also a chance to skirt the east coast and do little to nothing, though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2017, 08:21:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2017, 11:11:35 AM

You likely are right in some ideal scenario, but it just won't happen.  Nobody is seriously even talking about it.

Control is going to be the attempt even if it fails on occasion.

Downtown Cincy would flood every couple of years without the levies and the pumps for the Mill Creek.  With those devices, it never floods.  Of course we don't have hurricanes, though Hurricane Ike did a surprisingly amount of "dry damage" with high wins a few years ago, no rain, but very high winds.

Yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on September 02, 2017, 08:41:18 AM

The whole Houston / Harvey situation was discussed on the Energy Gang podcast (GreenTechMedia.com) this week. One of the regular hosts, Jigar Shah, who founded SunEdison and now has a company that invests in renewable energy projects, is a staunch proponent of not redeveloping places like the Gulf Coast when they're ravaged by hurricanes and other natural disasters, and I tend to agree. It's absurd to me that they apparently have minimal regulations on how they develop their land, and apparently there are many instances of homes that have taken advantage of flood insurance programs to the point where they have gotten paid a multiple on the value of their homes.

There's an electricity topic on the unmoderated board, so I'll try to keep my thoughts on energy there. The big news of late in that world is the DOE report that Rick Perry asked for that was recently published, and the continuing demise of nuclear projects, particularly in the Southeast.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2017, 09:48:39 AM

I'm guessing that if the government did not foot the bill to rebuild areas in repeated peril of natural disasters, many folks wouldn't live there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2017, 01:07:13 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 02, 2017, 09:48:39 AM

I'm guessing that if the government   certain if taxpayers like us did not foot the bill to rebuild areas in repeated peril of natural disasters, many folks wouldn't live there.

Fixed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2017, 01:09:18 PM

Harvey is NOT a natural disaster. It's man-made because man put a city in harm's way, and they knew it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2017, 08:58:33 AM

We just drove along the Gulf Coast from NOLA to Mobile and a lot of the houses that used to be there are gone now.  You have the beach, a four lane highway, and then large lots where apparently nice houses once existed.  I didn't see much/any construction on those parcels.  The cities/towns of course remain in the region with casinos right on the Gulf, though often I noted thin islands, possibly man made break waters, about half a mile off shore.

They help with waves but not storm surge/high tide.

The newer buildings were all elevated, only parking underneath.

This notion that climate change intensified Harvey is very speculative and no climate scientist is going to go there with definition.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2017, 09:10:12 AM

I'm sure humans will try and construct artificial items to manage future calamities.

I even think they will work on occasion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on September 04, 2017, 01:56:31 PM

I meant to post this earlier but I got sidetracked, anyways the absolute strangest thing happened Friday night in Phoenix. I was working that evening and work often has me outdoors. It was of course hot that day but dry so once the sun went down it actually was quite tolerable outside. 

But then somewhere between 10 and 11 pm it happened. It got hotter, or so it felt. At 10 I wasn't sweating at all, but by 11 I was drenched. Weird as hell. Finally got off work at 11:30 and checked the weather, the temp had actually stayed the same (hovering in the low 90s the past few hours) so I was baffled, maybe it was me?!? I knew better though and checked the dewpoint and VIOLA, found my culprit. The damn dewpoint literally rose 20 degrees (from mid 40s to mid 60s) in a span of 2 hours. Made all the difference in the world. 

Apparently some moisture from either the gulf or Pacific just up and crept it's way over southern and central AZ (which itself isn't that strange, we do have monsoons this time of year) but didn't really bring any clouds or rain with it, just sticky ass humidity. Yuck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on September 04, 2017, 02:38:52 PM

In my little town of 5,000, we have a Mississippi tributary that has flooded frequently since we arrived, starting in 1993 -- I am guessing it was not as frequent in the years before 1993, but no doubt there was some flooding.

Several homes were removed from the flood plain. Several businesses were removed from the flood plain. Now there is rebuilding in the flood plain (this is where the highest traffic counts are in town so it is potentially valuable real estate to develop). These new entrepreneurs are dumping piles of dirt in the flood plain to build a building in the floodplain that is above the flood table. Finally some of the other owners in what I would say is the 500-year flood plain are just now figuring out that it is like a bath tub and if you displace flood plain with dirt, buildings and parking lots, it moves the flood waters higher. They have talked to the city council but have done nothing else.

I practice law. It surprises me no one filed a nuisance lawsuit against the people who buy floodplain land and develop it at the expense of their neighbors. Problem is one person filing suit that benefits many other owners who don't pay. There is no association of neighboring owners to do the right thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2017, 07:42:20 PM

it could be quite simple

if the independent insurance company would allow you to purchase flood insurance, the government shouldn't pay for damages

then the bank wouldn't extend the loan to purchase

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 04, 2017, 08:40:26 PM

Quote from: Hawkinole on September 04, 2017, 02:38:52 PM

In my little town of 5,000, we have a Mississippi tributary that has flooded frequently since we arrived, starting in 1993 -- I am guessing it was not as frequent in the years before 1993, but no doubt there was some flooding.

Several homes were removed from the flood plain. Several businesses were removed from the flood plain. Now there is rebuilding in the flood plain (this is where the highest traffic counts are in town so it is potentially valuable real estate to develop). These new entrepreneurs are dumping piles of dirt in the flood plain to build a building in the floodplain that is above the flood table. Finally some of the other owners in what I would say is the 500-year flood plain are just now figuring out that it is like a bath tub and if you displace flood plain with dirt, buildings and parking lots, it moves the flood waters higher. They have talked to the city council but have done nothing else.

I practice law. It surprises me no one filed a nuisance lawsuit against the people who buy floodplain land and develop it at the expense of their neighbors. Problem is one person filing suit that benefits many other owners who don't pay. There is no association of neighboring owners to do the right thing.

In Illinois, at a minimum, any fill placed in the floodplain must be replaced at a 1:1 ratio and at the same hydraulic equal. In NE Illinois, it is 1.5:1.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on September 04, 2017, 10:35:24 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 04, 2017, 08:40:26 PM

In Illinois, at a minimum, any fill placed in the floodplain must be replaced at a 1:1 ratio and at the same hydraulic equal. In NE Illinois, it is 1.5:1.

In layman's terms, are you saying that if you place fill-dirt in the floodplain that you must remove dirt elsewhere in the floodplain?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2017, 07:20:25 AM

Maybe if we pave Paradise, all that rain water will go somewhere else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2017, 07:49:28 AM

Quote from: Hawkinole on September 04, 2017, 10:35:24 PM

In layman's terms, are you saying that if you place fill-dirt in the floodplain that you must remove dirt elsewhere in the floodplain?

If you fill, you must create new floodplain at the same elevation, which makes it hydraulically equivalent (to a point). Any fill between the 0-10 year flood must be replaced at the 0-10 year flood elevation. Any fill between the 10-100 year flood must be replaced at the 10-100 year flood elevation. That last one makes filling prohibitive (expensive). The 1.5:1 ratio in NE Illinois makes it even harder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2017, 07:51:07 AM

As many here can likely guess, I'm opposed to a lot of government regulations.

Ones I am not opposed to are the ones related to life safety and health. I'm all in favor of regulating construction in floodplains and floodways.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2017, 04:22:12 PM

The problem I found with "regulations" on things like safety is that in the main they made no sense and caused us to keep a lot of paperwork and silliness that was simply not useful at all.  Some of the regulations are counter to other regulations, so you can't abide by one set without infracting another set.

The CFR is a nightmare I've had to try and wade through.  Even the folks from OSHA and EPA couldn't tell me what parts meant.  One guy spent hours on the phone back to DC trying to decipher a certain passage.  They finally said no one understood it.  It was supposedly something OSHA was trying to enforce.

Another one had the "<" clearly reversed and the EPA guy said he couldn't change it, and it meant we had to pollute MORE than we were polluting to be in the spec.  He just shrugged and said he saw this routinely.  He said he wouldn't write us up for a violation is we kept under the pollution level we were supposed to be at.  But he couldn't change it in the field.

Another part of the Lab Standard runs clearly afoul of EEOC standards.

Regulations are needed, yes, but they end up being masses of uninerpretable molasses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2017, 04:26:11 PM

I'm delighted to be retired.  As I think back on things, I realize that any time our division got into any regulatory issue, the director would call me, and I was not in regulatory at all.

Apparently they thought I could read that morass of molasses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2017, 04:43:26 PM

Oh, there are still problems. Like, when, say a Crook County requirement conflicts with an Illannoy requirement.

Crap like that happens a lot. I usually go with the higher governing body at that point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2017, 12:29:38 PM

The Folly of Paying Americans to Live in Harm's Way

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-flood-hurricane-insurance-0908-20170904-story.html


Read it and wonder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on September 08, 2017, 01:45:43 PM

I would be a good idea to stop selling flood insurance for flood prone property and stop bailing out those who choose to locate there anyway.  How would one define such a no insurance available flood prone area?   Just about anywhere but a hill top would flood if you get 30" of rain in 36 hrs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 08, 2017, 02:26:32 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 01:17:31 PM

I know I'm correct. I do floodplain work for a living.

The entire Mississippi is constrained by levees. Start there.

I didn't realize that.  We're definitely in related fields.  I work for a large federal agency that builds dams and levees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2017, 02:33:38 PM

Grrr...

I've spent my career trying to get them removed.

I'm a PE and a PLS. I'm also a CFM, for whatever that fluff credential is worth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 08, 2017, 03:05:38 PM

Well, we don't build them much, anymore.  Mostly making sure the ones that are already there are safe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2017, 03:32:13 PM

The safest dam is a removed dam.  :72:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on September 08, 2017, 04:19:46 PM

Badge absolutely HATES hydroelectricity!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on September 09, 2017, 10:38:55 AM

Quote from: DevilFroggy on September 08, 2017, 04:19:46 PM

Badge absolutely HATES hydroelectricity!

The interesting thing is that most dams don't produce electricity (only 3% of them in the USA). I realize most of them were built 50+ years ago and probably aren't easy to retrofit, but I would think it's still cheaper than other sources of new generation.
Conversely, Canada gets 60% of its electricity from hydro power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on September 19, 2017, 08:09:35 AM

Artic sea ice extent up 40% since 2012.

(https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Image1091_shadow.png)

https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/40-sea-ice-ice-gain-over-the-past-five-years/ (https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/40-sea-ice-ice-gain-over-the-past-five-years/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2017, 07:02:03 AM

I think every "large dam" has a hydroelectric power station associated with it in the US.    One can of course count dams and many of them will be rather on the small side.  Maybe there is one somewhere 100 feet tall or more without a power plant, but not many.

Dams on the Ohio River, for example, are for navigation, with locks, and they were maybe 50 feet high, and not enough reason to try and generate power from that.

Hydro is basically tapped out in the US today, with more dams disappearing for environmental reasons than being built (which is zero for larger dams).  The TVA area has a lot of dams of course, many built in part for flood control.  Any areas left where a dam might generate power are protected areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 20, 2017, 11:54:17 AM

Many of the dams on the Ohio do generate power, although their primary purpose is navigation.  There are actually several that are over 100 feet high that do not have hydropower.  These are mostly tall embankment dams, designed for flood control, that don't have much inflow during non-flood level events.  Several of those are also "dry dams", meaning they do not have a lake behind them except after heavy rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2017, 12:16:11 PM

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1059963923

Interesting.  It looks like four of them generate power, or will when outfitted with turbines.  Didn't know that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 20, 2017, 01:56:41 PM

Hmmm, I thought most of them already did generate power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2017, 02:46:24 PM

I've driven across the one at Greenup several times and looked for a power plant (signs of power lines etc.).  Nothing there.  Just a bridge and the dam and locks.

Having four produce a bit of power is a small something I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 21, 2017, 09:10:50 AM

I've not been to most of the dams on the Ohio.  I have been on many on the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers.  Nearly all of them have powerplants, I mistakenly thought power production on the larger dams was typical.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 17, 2017, 03:02:07 PM

DES MOINES, Iowa – (Sept. 21, 2017) – MidAmerican Energy Company is set to upgrade hundreds of its older wind turbines, bringing additional wind energy and cost savings to Iowa customers. The equipment upgrades will move MidAmerican Energy closer to its vision of providing renewable energy equal to 100% of its customers’ annual energy use.

MidAmerican Energy recently received approval from the Iowa Utilities Board for a plan that will allow the company to repower a portion of its older wind fleet to make the turbines more efficient and productive. The outcome is good for MidAmerican Energy’s customers and for Iowa. 

Under the plan, many of MidAmerican Energy’s older General Electric wind turbines will be retrofitted with newer, more efficient components, including longer blades, to extend the life of the turbines. These changes will increase the amount of clean, safe, affordable and reliable energy serving Iowa customers. 

“We’re excited to take this next step in our journey toward our 100% Renewable Energy Vision,” said Bill Fehrman, president and CEO of MidAmerican Energy. “Repowering our older wind turbines brings us closer to achieving that vision in a way that provides both economic and environmental benefits to our customers and the state of Iowa. In 2021 when both our repowering and Wind XI projects are complete, we expect to generate renewable energy equal to 95% of our Iowa retail customers’ annual use.”

Because energy generated from wind has no fuel costs, the repowering project will reduce the costs associated with generating electricity from other sources, which helps keep energy costs low and stable for MidAmerican Energy’s Iowa customers. With the extended life of the wind turbines, landowners at the repowering sites will continue to receive lease payments for a longer period and counties will receive tax revenue for an extended period. 

MidAmerican Energy has entered into definitive agreements with GE to complete the upgrades.

“We are delighted to work with MidAmerican Energy to repower their turbines,” said Pete McCabe, president and CEO, Onshore Wind, GE Renewable Energy. “Repowering is an affordable way to increase the efficiency and output of turbines, improving reliability and extending the life of the turbines through the evolution of and advancements in technology.”

Beginning in 2017, wind turbines will be repowered at the Century wind farm in Wright and Hamilton counties, the Victory wind farm in Crawford and Carroll counties, and the Intrepid wind farm in Buena Vista and Sac counties. Additional work sites and schedules will be announced at a later date.

As with the $3.6 billion, 2,000-megawatt Wind XI project announced in 2016, MidAmerican Energy is not asking for an increase in customer rates or for financial assistance from the state to pay for repowering. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2017, 03:08:00 PM

An interesting blog site for anyone wanting more reading on the topic in language more understandable than primary scientific journals.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/10/06/jc-interview-hurricanes-and-global-warming/ (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyM3RpbnkyNDc=)
I realize Curry is viewed by many as a "skeptic" etc. because she doesn't toe the line, but I find her blog to be both thoughtful and also provides references to other blogs and discussion sites that are clearly not skeptics.
Like many areas with technical complexity, this isn't a site you can read quickly and "prove" this or that, or even find compelling clear cut conclusions that might fit your internal biases. Most people, as noted, believe what they want to believe and simply seek confirmation for that while discounting anything contrary as irrelevant or flawed. This site isn't for them.
https://judithcurry.com/ (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyNHRpbnkyNDc=)
https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/04/paris-accord-qtiips/ (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyNXRpbnkyNDc=)#more-23104
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/aug/30/bjorn-lomborg-climate-change-profile (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyNnRpbnkyNDc=)

And yes, I am aware that Curry is labeled by some as a denier in the pockets of Big Oil, but her statements don't sound like that to me anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 17, 2017, 10:19:01 PM

Iowa is one of the leading wind states (particularly per capita), as is Texas and most of the Great Plains states in between. It goes to show that renewables should not be a political issue. It's all about cost-effectiveness, and it's primarily natural gas (though increasingly wind & solar) that's killing coal and to a lesser extent nuclear. If you want to venture into the unmoderated board, I occasionally put my thoughts on the Electricity thread.

I recently got a new job at an ESCo (an energy services company, which are companies that finance energy efficiency upgrades and/or roof-top solar and other forms of on-site generation), and our biggest growth opportunity is with microgrids (buildings and campuses that can meet their energy needs independently of the grid), especially in the aftermath of the hurricanes in the past few months.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 06:11:35 AM

The figures clearly show NG has put the major dent in replacing coal over the past two decades (enabled by fracking interestingly enough).  I think wind is up to about 6% on the grid, not really that large a player, and solar on the grid is under 1%, so neither has really replaced coal significantly when it dropped from about 2/3rds to 1/3rd.

NG is a nice fuel source in part because the gas turbines can be started up quickly and produce power without the much longer time needed for coal or nuclear to go from cold to producing.  So, it is useful for meeting surge power demands.

Coal and nuclear are better suited to the constant background demand.

If wind is really competitive with NG etc., do we need any special government treatment of wind power?  Or will it happen on its own because of inherent advantages?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2017, 06:57:54 AM

Fracking is not a good thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 07:42:10 AM

Much of human activity is not a good thing environmentally.  We do those things because there are pros to go along with the cons.  It's a matter of balance.

I've watched corn fields here - which are not exactly good things - paved over to build Walmarts - not good things either.

Humanity is not going to "go back" and give up most of the pros just because there are environmental issues unless the latter is very clearly bad for many people (lead in gasoline for example).

One could argue that fracked NG that replaces coal might be on balance a "better thing".  One could also note the bird deaths associated with wind turbines and call that not a good thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on October 18, 2017, 08:07:18 AM

I hate wind turbines.  They are butt ugly where they put them on top of hills, mountains and ridges.  I do not like the service roads that need to be built for them over otherwise pristine land.  Stick them off shore from Malibu, the Hamptons, Cape Cod and the like.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:10:29 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2017, 06:57:54 AM

Fracking is not a good thing.

Agreed.  Look at the frequency of earthquakes in Oklahoma before and after they started putting in injection wells.  The difference is striking.
(https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/byregion/oklahoma/OK-M3-July4-2017.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:11:16 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on October 18, 2017, 08:07:18 AM

I hate wind turbines.  They are butt ugly where they put them on top of hills, mountains and ridges.  I do not like the service roads that need to be built for them over otherwise pristine land.  Stick them off shore from Malibu, the Hamptons, Cape Cod and the like.

Does a coal plant look better?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on October 18, 2017, 08:14:13 AM

No, no, no...not coal.  I envision everyone powering their homes with bicycle powered generators which would help with the obesity epidemic in the US. 

On a serious note, there are safer nuclear power reactor designs such as liquid sodium cooled reactors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:23:11 AM

I'm not against that.  I like the concept that France uses, numerous smaller nuclear plants, instead of massive one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 08:33:53 AM

France has 58 nuclear power reactors.  They are roughly the same size as ours in output.

A key difference is that they reprocess spent fuel and the US cannot because of an executive order by Nixon, I think it was.

There are two new power reactors going in at the Vogtle plant in Georgia near Augusta.  They have had "issues" many relating to bankruptcy by the principle contractor.  There was a lot of concern earlier this year that the project would have to be abandoned partially completed.

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060059449

https://southerncompany.mediaroom.com/2017-08-31-Georgia-Power-files-recommendation-to-complete-construction-of-Vogtle-nuclear-expansion

If you have not read anything about ITER, it may be of interest to some here:

https://www.iter.org/

I don't think anyone has a good guess as to when, if ever, that approach might come to fruition and generate usable power.  Soon, would be my preference, but not my expectation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 18, 2017, 11:01:38 AM

It is quite a sight to come up over a slight incline on the otherwise flat I-65  (North of Lafayette) to see the dozens and dozens of wind turbines on the horizon (particularly at night with the red lights pulsating).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 11:28:33 AM

I wonder how birds feel about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2017, 12:00:24 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on October 18, 2017, 11:01:38 AM

It is quite a sight to come up over a slight incline on the otherwise flat I-65  (North of Lafayette) to see the dozens and dozens of wind turbines on the horizon (particularly at night with the red lights pulsating).

I did all of the survey work and some of the engineering work on all of those.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2017, 12:01:35 PM

Quote from: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:10:29 AM

Agreed.  Look at the frequency of earthquakes in Oklahoma before and after they started putting in injection wells.  The difference is striking.
(https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/byregion/oklahoma/OK-M3-July4-2017.gif)

Exactly. And they want to do it in Southern Illinois. There is a fault line there... One of the deadliest quakes ever.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 12:06:29 PM

Some folks think more smaller earthquakes is better than one really bad quake.

There could be a benefit to this, possibly.  I recall some work decades back about injecting "lubricant" into fault lines so they would slip more gradually instead of building up and then breaking bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 01:13:34 PM

It's not about lubricant, everything at those depths is generally saturated.  It's about pore pressurepushing apart cracks and reducing the amount of contact to pieces of rock have, thereby reducing friction.

I understand about the thought of smaller quakes relieving built up pressure.  In the case of Oklahoma, some of the quakes that have occurred after fracking began are just as strong as the strongest ones that recorded before, occasionally above 5.0.  In the New Madrid Fault zone, my scientists believe we are already overdue for a big one.  Fracking there might be the last straw that allows it to release.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 02:18:51 PM

I figure an agent that reduces friction might be called a lubricant.

At any rate, as you know, this notion about relieving pressure gradually is not well tested.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 02:19:19 PM

I must note I am not an expert in tribology.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2017, 02:23:28 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on October 18, 2017, 11:01:38 AM

It is quite a sight to come up over a slight incline on the otherwise flat I-65  (North of Lafayette) to see the dozens and dozens of wind turbines on the horizon (particularly at night with the red lights pulsating).

this occurs in Iowa obviously, but there are 100s
flying over in a small plane (10,000') at night with the red lights pulsating in unison is interesting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 19, 2017, 03:43:16 PM

Yeah, I think the Meadow Lake wind farm has 330 turbines, and the Fowler Ridge windfarm has about 350 turbines.  Meadow Lake is on the east side of 65, and Fowler Ridge is on the west side.  they are fairly close to each other.   I know they are amongst the 15 or so largest in the country.  There's the one in Cali which is about 3 times the size based on capacity, and one in Texas that looks enormous from the skies.  I remember seeing a huge one from the sky in Oregon too.

If I recall the really big one in Iowa is in the NW part of the state.  I remember seeing it when flying out west this summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 19, 2017, 10:21:15 PM

The wind farm that you all are referencing near Purdue (which I passed to/from when Michigan played there a few weeks ago) is one of the largest in the country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fowler_Ridge_Wind_Farm

Wind turbines kill a very insignificant number of birds compared to skyscrapers, cats, rats, and other natural (and artifical) predators.

The best hope for nuclear is through smaller-scale plants. France's plants, unlike America's somehow have the ability to fluctuate their generation to an extent (I'm admittedly not sure how), so they're not just so-called baseload power (the DOE study on so-called baseload power to prop up coal and nuclear and the subsequent request to FERC for grid resilience is all BS....), where as gas plants have a great ability to fluctuate their generation to counteract the intermittent nature of wind and solar (and in the future, grid-balancing services will increasingly be done through energy storage and demand-side technologies, as well). I'm skeptical that small-scale nuclear will ever take off because other forms of dispatchable and distributed generation (namely CHP / cogeneration) are already more cost-effective, especially for universities, hospitals, and other campuses of sorts. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2017, 01:36:33 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on October 19, 2017, 03:43:16 PM

Yeah, I think the Meadow Lake wind farm has 330 turbines, and the Fowler Ridge windfarm has about 350 turbines.  Meadow Lake is on the east side of 65, and Fowler Ridge is on the west side.  they are fairly close to each other.   I know they are amongst the 15 or so largest in the country.  There's the one in Cali which is about 3 times the size based on capacity, and one in Texas that looks enormous from the skies.  I remember seeing a huge one from the sky in Oregon too.

If I recall the really big one in Iowa is in the NW part of the state.  I remember seeing it when flying out west this summer.

That's the one we did.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2017, 07:05:34 AM

NG provides about a third of our grid electricity today, as does coal.  Nuclear is around 20%.  Hydro is what 8% or so?

The rest is kind of in the weeds, though wind is growing, 5-6%.

Hawaii historically, like most islands, used fuel oil to burn to make steam and electricity.  I would think they would benefit most by a wind/solar focus, but to date it has been rather limited.  I read they are trying to move in that direction but capital is scarce.

The place we visit in Hawaii when we go gets 3" of rain a year, usually in one day (I've been there on that day).  It is both consistently sunny and much of it is lava fields (from an 1860 flow).  There is very little solar around, a handful of wind turbines up in the mountains.  There is a Federal geothermal/magma research center there that has a few PVs outside.  I suspect that place is a boondoggle as geothermal has not seemed to make any progress that I can discern (I don't mean the heat pumps.).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on October 20, 2017, 12:11:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 20, 2017, 07:05:34 AM

NG provides about a third of our grid electricity today, as does coal.  Nuclear is around 20%.  Hydro is what 8% or so?

The rest is kind of in the weeds, though wind is growing, 5-6%.

Hawaii historically, like most islands, used fuel oil to burn to make steam and electricity.  I would think they would benefit most by a wind/solar focus, but to date it has been rather limited.  I read they are trying to move in that direction but capital is scarce.

The place we visit in Hawaii when we go gets 3" of rain a year, usually in one day (I've been there on that day).  It is both consistently sunny and much of it is lava fields (from an 1860 flow).  There is very little solar around, a handful of wind turbines up in the mountains.  There is a Federal geothermal/magma research center there that has a few PVs outside.  I suspect that place is a boondoggle as geothermal has not seemed to make any progress that I can discern (I don't mean the heat pumps.).

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=us_energy_home
(https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/images/charts/energy_consumption_by_source_large.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2017, 02:02:44 PM

That chart is for all energy sources, including transportation.  My figures were for the electricity production only, hence the grid comment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 20, 2017, 06:41:03 PM

Hawaii has a 100% RPS by 2040. They are making a lot of progress towards that and will become a great case study not only for other islands and isolated locales (eg. rural Alaska), but distributed generation will gradually overtake utility-scale plants, thus reducing the importance of the transmission infrastructure.

Coal has no future and will continue to decline. Plants are closing due to economics, alone, which is why there are no new coal plants in most parts of the country. Gas will definitely continue to overtake it in the short-term, but eventually their growth will stagnate while wind and solar continue to grow. How soon this happens will largely depend on the volatility and overall direction of gas prices.... This legal case by Sunniva and Solarworld to impose tariffs on solar panels, could definitely be an issue, but only a short term one.

As for overall energy usage, electrification (as well as automation) of transportation and other sectors will result in the gradual decline of oil, as well. There's been too much production for awhile, which is what's causing the low prices and high inventories. That's not a viable long-term solution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 21, 2017, 01:12:15 AM

Quote from: Geolion91 on September 21, 2017, 09:10:50 AM

I've not been to most of the dams on the Ohio.  I have been on many on the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers.  Nearly all of them have powerplants, I mistakenly thought power production on the larger dams was typical.

I am not an engineer. The Mississippi River dams do not generate hydroelectric. Articles I read say it would be inefficient. But can you explain why it would not be worthwhile to generate power from a dam? These dams in some instance are about a mile wide, and so quite a few turbines could turn.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 21, 2017, 01:18:01 AM

Quote from: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:23:11 AM

I'm not against that.  I like the concept that France uses, numerous smaller nuclear plants, instead of massive one.

I think we need a mix of power sources, including some nuclear. But, nuclear power has become uneconomic, and unless there are advances in that area I don't see it expanding as a percentage of our power supply.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 21, 2017, 01:20:32 AM

Over 35% of Iowa's power generation comes from wind. By 2020, that percentage should exceed 40%.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2017, 07:45:48 AM

Quote from: Hawkinole on October 21, 2017, 01:12:15 AM

I am not an engineer. The Mississippi River dams do not generate hydroelectric. Articles I read say it would be inefficient. But can you explain why it would not be worthwhile to generate power from a dam? These dams in some instance are about a mile wide, and so quite a few turbines could turn.

As I noted, four on the Ohio do generate power.  The amount of power obviously depends on the flow, which is substantial, and the "drop", which is not with dams made for navigation as their primary purpose.  You want a tall dam, like Hoover/Boulder or other dams out west for the "drop".  At some point, the cost of installing the turbines is not economical.
I don't think the Mississippi has many dams south of Minneapolis, but I have not checked.  The Ohio has them because the river can almost dry up in summer making navigation difficult or impossible.  The dams in the Appalachians (TVA) originally were designed for flood control as well as electrification.  Some were built WAY back by Alcoa in Maryville, TN to provide power for aluminum smelting.  Most of those have been acquired by the TVA in later years.  You can see some of them off US 129 (Tail of the Dragon) at times.  They are impressive in a way considering they were built by a company in ca. 1917.  Fontana Dam is the largest, tallest dam east of the Rockies, and was built in part to provide power to the Oakridge Manhattan bomb project.
It's over 400 feet high on a decent sized river and generates a good bit of power.  But adding more hydro these days by building more dams is not a likely option.  Folks do look at updating turbines and installing them on a few dams, but that's about it for hydro in the US.  The dams on the Ohio River are more in the 40-70 foot high range, equipped with locks for the barge traffic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: nuwildcat on December 30, 2017, 06:53:06 PM

It's hella cold here in Chicago

- that is all ... carry on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 30, 2017, 07:44:26 PM

Quote from: nuwildcat on December 30, 2017, 06:53:06 PM

It's hella cold here in Chicago

- that is all ... carry on

Uh, yeah. This f'ing sucks ass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 30, 2017, 08:47:07 PM

A balmy 15 here in Cleveland.Better than the 116 they were perpetually having in the SW in summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: TyphonInc on December 30, 2017, 08:53:01 PM

I will still take 4 seasons over "death heat summers" down south.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2017, 10:12:57 AM

-11 here this AM, it has warmed up a bit with some bright sunshine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 31, 2017, 11:15:33 AM

15 here in balmy Tulsa, OK.

Supposed to get down to 4 tonight, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: LetsGoPeay on December 31, 2017, 12:14:01 PM

Quote from: nuwildcat on December 30, 2017, 06:53:06 PM

It's hella cold here in Chicago

- that is all ... carry on

We’re in town for New Years. We went walking around Michigan Avenue last night and it wasn’t too bad until it got to be about 7PM and we had to make the long walk back to our hotel. We had to duck into a couple stores because our fingertips hurt so much. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2017, 01:51:28 PM

Only supposed to get up to 69 here today...

Brrr...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2017, 02:03:09 PM

Quote from: LetsGoPeay on December 31, 2017, 12:14:01 PM

We’re in town for New Years. We went walking around Michigan Avenue last night and it wasn’t too bad until it got to be about 7PM and we had to make the long walk back to our hotel. We had to duck into a couple stores because our fingertips hurt so much.

no pockets?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: LetsGoPeay on December 31, 2017, 02:49:28 PM

Gloves and pockets!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 04:06:54 PM

Unless you're an outdoor worker or something like an ice fisherman or snowmobiler with all the right gear, nothing helps when it's this cold. There is no such thing as "tough guy" when it's like this.

I have to go out to the store. I'm dreading even doing that right now, but I'm going. Damn.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SuperMario on December 31, 2017, 04:11:35 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 04:06:54 PM

Unless you're an outdoor worker or something like an ice fisherman or snowmobiler with all the right gear, nothing helps when it's this cold. There is no such thing as "tough guy" when it's like this.

I have to go out to the store. I'm dreading even doing that right now, but I'm going. Damn.

Had to make a run to Costco to pick up some steak and it’s awful out. I simply don’t understand people that like this weather and have fun doing physical activities on this nonsense called snow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2017, 04:17:53 PM

One of my fraternity brothers and closest friends ended up moving out to San Diego, and he got married about 14 months ago to a girl from here in SoCal. They are considering moving back to Indiana to be closer to his elderly mother [and for cost of living / quality of live / etc]. 

They're in Chicago right now for New Year's after a week or so in the Indianapolis area. 

I'm wondering whether this weather has cured their desire to move away. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 05:20:22 PM

Quote from: SuperMario on December 31, 2017, 04:11:35 PM

Had to make a run to Costco to pick up some steak and it’s awful out. I simply don’t understand people that like this weather and have fun doing physical activities on this nonsense called snow.

I'm so moving out of here it's not even a question anymore. The old bones just can't take it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on December 31, 2017, 05:27:33 PM

I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 05:41:23 PM

Two homes is the ticket. Going to the Gulf Coast of Florida in March to get one to stay in for 6 months and one day out of every year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2017, 09:49:41 PM

Quote from: Entropy on December 31, 2017, 05:27:33 PM

I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  

I put on a jacket to shovel snow this morning at negative 9.  No sweat in my shorts
Going to Texas in 10 days to play golf if the weather cooperates
I'll send pics
it's currently -13, going to -20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SuperMario on January 01, 2018, 12:52:36 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 05:41:23 PM

Two homes is the ticket. Going to the Gulf Coast of Florida in March to get one to stay in for 6 months and one day out of every year.

My neighbors are a few years retired. They have a summer/fall home here in Ohio and their winter/early spring home is in Naples, Fl. It’s my ideal situation. Ohio is beautiful in the summer, but I hate the cold.
My wife and I were huge travel bugs prior to the little person that runs around our house and the new bun in the oven and our lack of travel in the winters right now is killing me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 01, 2018, 10:17:20 AM

plan to move south of NW Iowa when I retire

how far south, I don't know.  Maybe KAnsas, Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan.  At least that far south.  Don't think they get to -20.

Maybe as far south as Austin, TX.  Just to bother Utee

I can always visit friends and family in NW Iowa in the heat of summer.  Free lodging

way too derned cold here overnight and this morning - pretty sure the heat pump didn't quit the past 12 hours or so

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 01, 2018, 01:20:59 PM

Flying home yesterday, San Diego was in the 70s. I had a layover in Dallas, where they were getting pelted with an ice storm. Then Columbus was just a frozen tundra. Hoth like. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 01, 2018, 09:39:42 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 01, 2018, 10:17:20 AM

plan to move south of NW Iowa when I retire

how far south, I don't know.  Maybe KAnsas, Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan.  At least that far south.  Don't think they get to -20.

Maybe as far south as Austin, TX.  Just to bother Utee

I can always visit friends and family in NW Iowa in the heat of summer.  Free lodging

way too derned cold here overnight and this morning - pretty sure the heat pump didn't quit the past 12 hours or so

You fargin bastage!
You know we ain't got no runzas down here, right?  You'd hate the place.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on January 02, 2018, 08:45:52 AM

It was -27 F in my local this AM.  If not for Global Warming it might have been as low as -27.2 F.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 02, 2018, 11:39:31 AM

Quote from: Entropy on December 31, 2017, 05:27:33 PM

I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  

It is true, but there are some areas of California that are ideal year round and are rural enough that it's not quite an arm and a leg... Maybe just a leg lol. Place like Portland or Seattle as well will get "winter", but are close enough to the water that it's a very temperate winter. Granted, I wouldn't want to live in Seattle due to traffic, which sounds odd from someone currently in SoCal. But Seattle traffic is brutal. 
But there are a lot of places where it may not be ideal year round, but you don't hit the extremes of the upper Midwest in the winter nor of Phoenix/Vegas in the summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 02, 2018, 11:40:18 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 01, 2018, 09:39:42 PM

You fargin bastage!
You know we ain't got no runzas down here, right?  You'd hate the place.

I'm quite fond of BoneDaddy's
might be visiting next week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2018, 06:01:29 PM

Chicago looks to set a record this week for most days in a row without hitting 20 degrees.

The record was set in 1895.

I just heard that on the news. I wonder how many other records are falling out there, in places like Georgia and stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 04, 2018, 07:49:23 PM

I was told all 50 states registered a temp below freezing the other day.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 05, 2018, 08:09:01 AM

Mercury is up to 3 deg already in NE Ohio

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 08, 2018, 05:52:41 PM

Quote from: Entropy on December 31, 2017, 05:27:33 PM

I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  

I'll take the opposite end. I find sweating in the Arizona Sun purifying, especially once I've capped my day with a shower. It took two summers to get used to Phoenix heat but even before then I preferred a Phoenix July to my childhood memories of winters in Minnesota and Pennsylvania where your feet are numb ice all day and you fight with your siblings as to whose bed the dog and cat get to sleep in to keep you warm through the January night. That to me was far more miserable than the hallucinogenic heat of Las Vegas and Arizona.

And for those who counter with the adage "you can always put on more layers but you can't keep taking clothes off" I'll take sweating through basketball shorts and always needing sunglasses before going through those winters where when waiting for the school bus in the AM dark, it didn't matter how bundled I was - that Minnesota cold was tearing through every layer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 01:23:52 AM

You can all debate this if you want, but climate scientists strongly believe that the Midwest / Northeast polar vortex (or bomb cyclone or whatever you want to call it this year) are climate change related. Historically, the jet stream kept cold weather contained to Alaska and Northern Canada, but there's a strong argument that emissions in the Northeast / Midwest have broken the seal to allow it to bring it so far south. When Jacksonville is colder than Anchorage at any point in time (especially the winter), I think it's fairly obvious that something is wrong.

Fortunately, Rick Perry's plan to subsidize coal and nuclear plants got shut down by FERC (in fact, pretty much everyone including oil & gas companies, except for the coal and nuclear industries were against him for economic reasons alone, much less environmental ones)..... These BS proposed tariffs against solar panels should be rejected, too, with a final decision coming by the 26th, and even then the WTO has shut down similar situations in the past so Trump might not want to embarrass himself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 09, 2018, 01:54:47 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 01:23:52 AM

 so Trump might not want to embarrass himself.

You really think this concerns him?
Global warming is an outdated term - climate change is more accurate.  The trend of warming is real, but it causes more radical cold weather as well....think "The Day After Tomorrow".  
Climate change threatens our weather (both cool and warm) from staying in a comfortable zone - the spikes and valleys of hot and freezing extending past what we find acceptable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 09, 2018, 08:06:20 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 01:23:52 AM

 When Jacksonville is colder than Anchorage at any point in time (especially the winter), I think it's fairly obvious that something is wrong.

Well on the bright side this should be a boom for Big Ten recruiting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 09, 2018, 02:31:12 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 01:23:52 AM

You can all debate this if you want, but climate scientists strongly believe that the Midwest / Northeast polar vortex (or bomb cyclone or whatever you want to call it this year) are climate change related. Historically, the jet stream kept cold weather contained to Alaska and Northern Canada, but there's a strong argument that emissions in the Northeast / Midwest have broken the seal to allow it to bring it so far south. When Jacksonville is colder than Anchorage at any point in time (especially the winter), I think it's fairly obvious that something is wrong.

Not trying to disagree here, but do you have any links describing this? I would like to read more about this hypothesis as I haven't heard it before.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2018, 03:47:22 PM

I'm always skeptical whenever I see "climate scientists" cited. A link would be good for me too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 09:45:07 PM

This is admittedly quite debatable, but here's a good article about it: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/climate/cold-climate-change.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: TyphonInc on January 09, 2018, 10:41:20 PM

It just snowed in the Sahara Desert. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 09, 2018, 11:20:18 PM

It's not a big stretch to think that changing atmospheric temps (as well as corresponding declines in ice mass in the arctic ocean and shifts in density-driven ocean currents) might affect the overall dynamics of the Rossby waves in the atmosphere (e.g. wave number, precession rate, amplitude) and in particular the relative locations (taken in aggregate over, say, weekly to seasonal timescales) of the polar jet stream.  There are a number of articles on this in the scientific literature in recent years, such as:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3136

(in particular look at the reference list in that article and you see the scientific community is really actively publishing findings in this area)

It's summarized in plainer English here:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/

Here's another recent one:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1

A quick read of these suggests to me that, while there's nothing conclusive yet on this, there are some interesting observations here and potential for better understanding of these mechanisms with further research. 


 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on January 10, 2018, 07:51:55 AM

If you fill a soda bottle with carbon dioxide, cap it and set it in a dark closet how much will it's temperature rise?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2018, 08:14:42 AM

Well it rained here in Phoenix last night...I guess it's not in the desert anymore.  AmIright???

eyeroll

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on January 10, 2018, 09:10:14 AM

I just got the Carhartt coat I ordered, to wear when I go to construction sites.  Now we're going to have a high of 60 today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 10:28:06 AM

Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation. 

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 10:32:05 AM

Quote from: Geolion91 on January 10, 2018, 09:10:14 AM

I just got the Carhartt coat I ordered, to wear when I go to construction sites.  Now we're going to have a high of 60 today.

Right, and tomorrow it's forecast to be 54 here and then plummets. And on Saturday the forecast low is 5.

Don't get rid of the Carhartt just yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on January 10, 2018, 10:36:06 AM

No way, it's really warm, just too warm to wear it for a couple days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 10, 2018, 10:52:01 AM

The Milwaukee Tool  heated jacket is the best for outdoor workers.    Must have for framers, electricians, plumbers, roofers, layers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2018, 12:22:40 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 09:45:07 PM

This is admittedly quite debatable, but here's a good article about it: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/climate/cold-climate-change.html

Thanks. 
I just wanted to point out your statement: "climate scientists strongly believe that the Midwest / Northeast polar vortex (or bomb cyclone or whatever you want to call it this year) are climate change related"
Whereas the story was a bit more circumspect. The quotes from scientists were, as scientists tend to be, very carefully worded. I.e. 'we think there's something there, but we're not sure exactly what or how due to how complex the system is and thus it's an area of active research.' Scientists, like engineers, don't often like to make a forceful statement of conclusion until they really truly KNOW the whys and hows of the mechanism. Which is why it raised my initial question: when laymen translate that to an aggregate statement that "climate scientists strongly believe X" it makes me think that people are extrapolating WAY beyond what those scientists have actually claimed.
So I agree, I can easily see a plausible link between a warming arctic (due to emissions) and a change to the jet stream. And I'm not sure that you can nearly make a statement as specific as emissions in the Northeast/Midwest are responsible for the change in the jet stream to that part of the US. That might suggest that if those regions cut their emissions drastically, the problem will be solved. I think most climate scientists would consider the warming arctic to be a global phenomenon based upon rising CO2 concentrations over years/decades, which will tend to even out regardless of which continent actually emitted the CO2. But I agree with the basic theory of greenhouse gases causing temperature increases, and it would make sense that a warming arctic [which has been shown to be occurring via measurement] could shift things like the jet stream in ways we didn't fully predict.
Still, thanks. It was an interesting article and I appreciate the link.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on January 10, 2018, 02:29:42 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 10:28:06 AM

Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation.

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.

Exactly! The Earths climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth's formation. To say that it is now primarily due to man's existence, is to discount the previous eon's in which man had not effect yet the climate still changed. According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2018, 03:52:42 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on January 10, 2018, 02:29:42 PM

 According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?

Mastodon Gas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2018, 05:13:40 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 10:28:06 AM

Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation.

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on January 10, 2018, 02:29:42 PM

Exactly! The Earths climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth's formation. To say that it is now primarily due to man's existence, is to discount the previous eon's in which man had not effect yet the climate still changed. According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?

Yes, climate has been changing for all of Earth's history on its own. We get that.

That *DOES NOT* mean that anthropogenic climate change isn't real, or isn't damaging. And one can't claim that human effect is insignificant. We can do things to this planet that far outweigh the impact of any other animal due to our technology. After all, if Trump and Rocket Man decided to start lobbing nukes at each other and started a nuclear winter, would you say man has no effect? 

Climate is an extraordinarily complex system, but two aspects of climate change theory seem to be relatively well-established:

• Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas and greenhouse gases will trap heat in the atmosphere, causing some warming to the planet.
• Some, but not likely all, of the warming that is evident since we have had the technology to measure this, is due to human industry. 

The earth has been in a warming cycle since the end of the little ice age, around 1850. CO2 concentrations didn't really start to take off until after 1950 or so. But coincident with that rapid increase in CO2 concentration, the warming trend seemed to accelerate. As a result, even most people who would be labeled "skeptics" as it relates to the climate change debate concede the above two points.

Just as when the other side denounces you for "denying science", to belittle the climate change alarmists with the caveat that it's cold outside today, or with the statement that climate has been changing for all of Earth's history, doesn't help. The question is whether humans are changing it NOW, and what will be the impact on modern life from that change?

And the answer is yes, humans are changing it now. We don't exactly know how much, as all we really have to rely on is computer models of climate [so far most alarmist models have generally over-predicted warming]. We also don't have very good ways to model the economic or lifestyle impacts at this time [the alarmists assume they must be terribly bad, but we don't know--many effects could possibly even be beneficial]. 

But ridiculing the other side doesn't advance the debate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 05:45:51 PM

We haven't had reliable measuring devices long enough in my opinion.

The eruption of one volcano could do more damage than humans have ever done.

That said, I do believe in emissions reduction. But I'm not gonna stop breathing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2018, 11:19:41 PM

The sheer volume of people out there who act like the plural of anecdote is data hurts my brain.  FFS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 10, 2018, 11:44:17 PM

bwarbiany - Fair point and totally agreed, both in regards to the skepticism of the extent of human impact but it exists to a point.

I look at it more from an economic perspective, anyway. I work in the energy & sustainability space, and various energy efficiency, energy management, and renewable energy technologies are all very economic in most parts of the country. Everyone in the energy sector knew that the DOE proposal to subsidize coal and nuclear was all BS, and there is a similar consensus on the proposed tariffs against solar panels (it's telling enough that BP and Shell are reinvesting in solar), which came about from two already-failing solar companies, Sunniva and SolarWorld, for reasons of their own doing. Supposedly there's a good chance that the WTO would turn it down, anyway, and/or there's enough production from unaffected countries in SE Asia and domestically that it won't matter too much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 11, 2018, 11:06:32 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 10, 2018, 12:22:40 PM

And I'm not sure that you can nearly make a statement as specific as emissions in the Northeast/Midwest are responsible for the change in the jet stream to that part of the US. That might suggest that if those regions cut their emissions drastically, the problem will be solved. I think most climate scientists would consider the warming arctic to be a global phenomenon based upon rising CO2 concentrations over years/decades, which will tend to even out regardless of which continent actually emitted the CO2.

Right.  CO2 as well several other ghg’s are well mixed and fairly uniformly distributed in the troposphere, and have residence times (=mass/flux) that exceed annual time scales and can even be as long as century time scales.  
That helps explain why localized changes in emissions will not have localized effects.  It’s the same reason that you can’t sustain a water quality improvement effort in the bay of a lake (unless you disconnect that area entirely); as soon as you do the overwhelming mass and prevailing water quality of the rest of the lake will simply mix in and you’re back to where you started.

There have been significant improvements in other air quality problem areas and so they can provide some guidance, but yet they’re fundamentally different.  For example you could examine either the reduction of acid rain and the reduction of CFCs.  Both are at least partial success stories. Both of those had different properties however - acid rain contaminants (NOx and SOx) have short residence times (mainly because they rain out) and more localized sources (particularly SOx).  CFCs are more uniformly mixed but have a limited number of sources that can be more easily controlled.

In contrast CO2, CH4, N2O are more ubiquitous in terms of sources and have those long residence times in the atmosphere that make them hard to reduce and in need of a global scale response.  Localized efforts won’t get it done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2018, 12:36:46 PM

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.physicalgeography.net%2Ffundamentals%2Fimages%2Fco2_atmosphere.jpg&hash=3ef1262d0a4a62e5781037ccd4a2e8b0)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/World_population_v3.svg/481px-World_population_v3.svg.png)



Anyone care to comment on the similarity of the curves, 1800-present?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2018, 02:37:22 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on January 10, 2018, 11:44:17 PM

I look at it more from an economic perspective, anyway. I work in the energy & sustainability space, and various energy efficiency, energy management, and renewable energy technologies are all very economic in most parts of the country. 

It might surprise you to know that a few years ago when the construction industry was in shambles and there was a proposed gov't program humorously called "cash for caulkers", I [as a pretty fervent libertarian] actually thought it was a really good targeted economic stimulus package. It had all of the following positive elements:
1) Many people don't live in their houses long enough for energy efficiency improvements to pay for themselves, and energy efficiency is not heavily valued in the home resale market enough to recoup investment upon sale. Thus, the net aggregate spending on energy efficiency is lower than would make sense if people stayed in a house long-term, making it a perfect opportunity for a subsidy.
2) Homes are durable goods, so the life cycle of many energy efficiency improvements is very long-term.
3) At the time, the people hardest hit by the recession were those in the construction/building trades. This would have been a great targeted way to get those people some work while the housing crisis worked itself through. 
Lack of energy efficiency is a negative externality caused by high retrofit costs and a long payback horizon. If there was ever a reason to suggest that gov't subsidy might actually make sense, this is a perfect example. 
Instead, the gov't decided to throw money into "cash for clunkers", destroying assets which increased the sale price of older used cars [thus hurting the low-income] in order to prop up the auto industry so that the people who weren't impacted by the recession could buy shiny new vehicles. Stupidity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2018, 03:04:27 PM

Cash for clunkers.. just The Guv propping up one of the industries it bailed out...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 12, 2018, 06:40:41 PM

I'm not a scientist or an engineer, although I have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

I'm a historian.  But for two years, I taught physical geography and military geography at West Point.  In the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering.

I was in the geography "group" within the department, but also interacted with the environmental engineers and the mapping, charting, and geodesy instructors.  This was in the mid-'90s, and AGW/AGCG was not a big deal.  We were closer in time to the "Global Cooling" scare of the late '70s than we were to to today's concerns.

But I remember a couple of things from that experience that seem to have significance today.  One was that the atmosphere does not act like a greenhouse.  So "greenhouse gasses" is really a misnomer.  Of course, it's just a label, and we use misleading labels all the time.  I don't see any harm to it in this case.  But the second was that CO2 is maybe the least "greenhouse gas-ish" of all the "greenhouse gasses."  It just doesn't trap heat very well.

Am I mis-remembering this?  Or were my engineering colleagues mistaken about CO2?

I addition, I have seen long time-span charts that showed times when CO2 levels were significantly higher than now and temps were significantly lower, and vice-versa.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2018, 07:31:43 PM

That is all valid CDub. The "studies" that are currently underway and those that have been published over the past 10 years or so are influenced by those who fund them.

It would be really nice if people would set things aside and do some of their own research. 

Yes, the climate is changes. Always has, and always will.

We are going to have a cold, wet winter - La Nina. That is caused by cooling in the Pacific Ocean. Cooling in an ocean. Not warming. Cooling.

People want to cite the shrinking ice caps, but when the ice caps grow, and they do in any given year, you hear... crickets.


Dropping the "agenda" would be a good thing. This country and many others are more environmentally conscious than ever.

We need to bring our focus elsewhere - like uniting our people. Otherwise, you might have another Civil War to study.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2018, 10:57:14 AM

just returned from Texas

it's much warmer there

and it's about 5-10 degrees warmer in Austin than Dallas - better for playing golf in shorts

let's ALL move there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 01:38:24 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2018, 07:31:43 PM

Dropping the "agenda" would be a good thing. This country and many others are more environmentally conscious than ever.

I do agree with this. Global warming has become a sign of political affiliation, not scientific belief. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2018, 02:11:44 PM

For the most part, that statement is highly accurate. Simple minds and all that.

(That is not an indictment of this place, mind you. Just a general observation.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 03:10:11 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 13, 2018, 10:57:14 AM

just returned from Texas

it's much warmer there

 Beautiful day in SoCal... It's nice to take the Jeep out without needing to put the top up, any time during the year. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 03:14:19 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2018, 02:11:44 PM

For the most part, that statement is highly accurate. Simple minds and all that.

(That is not an indictment of this place, mind you. Just a general observation.)

Agreed. The level of discourse here is miles ahead of a lot of other forums [incl. the Area 51 board here lol].

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 03:18:39 PM

Never gets old...

(https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/1522869_10152179779680329_358375176_o.png?oh=bfeacc60fb5fc9a7266df1d33dfde678&oe=5AEE1FDA)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 13, 2018, 04:51:26 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 11, 2018, 02:37:22 PM

It might surprise you to know that a few years ago when the construction industry was in shambles and there was a proposed gov't program humorously called "cash for caulkers", I [as a pretty fervent libertarian] actually thought it was a really good targeted economic stimulus package. It had all of the following positive elements:
1) Many people don't live in their houses long enough for energy efficiency improvements to pay for themselves, and energy efficiency is not heavily valued in the home resale market enough to recoup investment upon sale. Thus, the net aggregate spending on energy efficiency is lower than would make sense if people stayed in a house long-term, making it a perfect opportunity for a subsidy.
2) Homes are durable goods, so the life cycle of many energy efficiency improvements is very long-term.
3) At the time, the people hardest hit by the recession were those in the construction/building trades. This would have been a great targeted way to get those people some work while the housing crisis worked itself through.
Lack of energy efficiency is a negative externality caused by high retrofit costs and a long payback horizon. If there was ever a reason to suggest that gov't subsidy might actually make sense, this is a perfect example.
Instead, the gov't decided to throw money into "cash for clunkers", destroying assets which increased the sale price of older used cars [thus hurting the low-income] in order to prop up the auto industry so that the people who weren't impacted by the recession could buy shiny new vehicles. Stupidity.

This is why energy efficiency incentive programs exist and many companies like the one I work for offer financing options, as well. The non-residential sectors (commercial, industrial, governmental, non-profits) are also the major focus of these programs and the companies involved in them, though residential programs exist, too. To your point, improving building codes in the first place is incredibly important, too.
On a tangential note, GM just announced that they're ready to manufacture autonomous vehicles to deploy next year (as I understand it, they will own them all), starting in San Francisco and Phoenix, unsurprisingly, where they've already been tested. It will be interesting to follow how quickly they are adopted and what happens. Eventually, car ownership will likely be obsolete except perhaps in very remote areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 13, 2018, 05:12:59 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on January 12, 2018, 06:40:41 PM

But I remember a couple of things from that experience that seem to have significance today.  One was that the atmosphere does not act like a greenhouse.  So "greenhouse gasses" is really a misnomer.  Of course, it's just a label, and we use misleading labels all the time.  I don't see any harm to it in this case.  But the second was that CO2 is maybe the least "greenhouse gas-ish" of all the "greenhouse gasses."  It just doesn't trap heat very well.


I think the greenhouse analogy is pretty apt.  CO2 absorbs in the infrared band quite prominently.  This is easily measured and well known.  It is invisible in the visible band (duh).  So, light from the sun comes in and generates heat when it is absorbed by something.  That heat normally radiates back out into space and infrared radiation (IR).  If you "trap" the heat with glass, or CO2, or methane, or something, it doesn't radiate outward as much, and thus is trapped in a greenhouse type affair.

None of this is in dispute.  Without the 280 ppm CO2 we had in the atmosphere, the climate would be quite a bit cooler than it is.  Increasing that to 400 ppm has a pretty easily measured impact on heat retained, and this is less than a tenth of a degree Celsius (°C).  The larger impact is a result of what are called forcing factors, things that happen as a result of slight changes that spiral out of control and amplify the impact.  One simple example is a change in albedo as ice melts.  The planet becomes less reflective and thus warmer.  Another is if permafrost melts and releases a high level of methane trapped there now.

CO2 is not the most effective of the greenhouse gases, but it is by far the most prominent in concentration.  The levels of gases like methane and NOx in the atmosphere are much much lower, Beer's Law and all that come into play.

The models attempt to estimate the impact of those "forcing factors" to make a projection, and this is done by back fitting them to known data in the last.  One problem is that global mean temperature is very difficult to measure.

And all this complexity and more really gets absorbed into the political landscape.  There are very few liberals who don't believe this is an issue and vice versa.  People BELIEVE the way they believe because of their politics, not their scientific acumen.  

My personal best assessment is that it is a serious problem but probably not as serious as it has been hyped by folks like Gore, who I think have done a disservice to the discussion, AND, importantly, there is VERY little we can do practicably to affect this issue.  I don't see a viable real solution, or even significant mitigation possibility.  You can run around yelling wind and solar but that doesn't make it happen, and it won't happen beyond an inconsequential amount.  The best hope might be controlled fusion power, but heaven knows when that may arrive, if ever.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 13, 2018, 05:43:07 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2018, 07:31:43 PM

That is all valid CDub. The "studies" that are currently underway and those that have been published over the past 10 years or so are influenced by those who fund them.

It would be really nice if people would set things aside and do some of their own research.

What in the world are you talking about?  As a practicing member of the scientific community, who has received my share of grant funding and published several dozen peer-reviewed articles, I've never once had that funding or publishing those papers contingent on adhering to anyone's "agenda".
Scientists are the real skeptics.  We actually do the investigations and push back against whatever the latest conventional thinking is, rather than just talk about it (like some so-called climate skeptics who like to be in the news but do scant little actual research).  We do not personally profit from this research.  Funding is extremely hard to get and is getting ever more difficult.  And we are catlike contrarian creatures who pick at and claw away at each other's findings, probing for weaknesses and looking for stronger patterns and explanations than currently exist.  That's how we're trained to think and act, and we embrace the hunt.  Question authority.  Question conventional thinking.  Question everything.
Politicians and mediots do have agendas and they take our findings and mangle them to prove their own points, etc.  They do this because the lazy public want binary yes/no black/white type outcomes, because they can't deal with uncertainty or probabilistic prognostications (unless they're buying life insurance) and they don't understand that science is a process of discovery, not an encyclopedia of information. 
There's not much we can do about this, because scientific literacy in this country is so piss poor.  And frankly I don't blame anyone but the ignorant themselves for being ignorant.  It's an outcome of a lazy, instant gratification, please tell me the answer so I don't have to think society.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 13, 2018, 07:21:27 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 13, 2018, 10:57:14 AM

just returned from Texas

it's much warmer there

and it's about 5-10 degrees warmer in Austin than Dallas - better for playing golf in shorts

let's ALL move there

Dilly-dilly,maybe not looking forward to ice fishing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 13, 2018, 08:23:32 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjmtSkl53h4

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2018, 08:02:50 AM

I have a passion for automobiles, and I think the autonomous vehicle thing is a major shift in the horizon in how we transport ourselves.  Horizon probably means late 2020's, obviously in a gradual sense.  I can see a time about then when certain freeway lanes will be reserved for self driving vehicles.  Many of us many opt not to own a car, but use an Uber like service entirely, or most of the time.  You schedule a car to pick you up and take you to work each morning, no parking hassles etc.

Cars on intercity routes might travel in long strings drafting the car ahead of them with a 1 foot separation traveling at perhaps 120 mph.  Each car would see what every other car sees.  This could be a significant option versus intercity high speed rail, and much cheaper.   

The EV thing is going to come fast also, though if the CAFE standards are relaxed, that will slow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2018, 08:13:37 AM

Quote from: CousinFreddie on January 13, 2018, 05:43:07 PM

What in the world are you talking about?  As a practicing member of the scientific community, who has received my share of grant funding and published several dozen peer-reviewed articles, I've never once had that funding or publishing those papers contingent on adhering to anyone's "agenda". 

You're one of the good ones Cuz.

But we knew that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2018, 08:24:44 AM

I know our grant proposals would start out something like "Compound X is thought to treat cancer".  An NIH grant proposal would have some kind of link to cancer usually.  In reality, it was just a pure research kind of thing.  Nothing we did have squat to do with cancer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2018, 08:35:25 AM

Cousin Fred has a pretty solid synopsis consistent with my experience as well.  Scientists love little better than to find the flaw in another's argument.  It is a very antagonistic environment, by design.  I never quite adjusted to the way things were done in large companies where doing this was basically a no-no, you were supposed to sit and nod and not embarrass anyone there.  I had the misfortune of having a first boss who loved this challenging atmosphere but later bosses did not at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2018, 09:19:40 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 13, 2018, 03:18:39 PM

Never gets old...

(https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/1522869_10152179779680329_358375176_o.png?oh=bfeacc60fb5fc9a7266df1d33dfde678&oe=5AEE1FDA)

I let slip "F" bombs much more than I'd like
when the temp dips below -20 I simply refer to it as "stupid" cold

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2018, 09:20:50 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 13, 2018, 07:21:27 PM

Dilly-dilly,maybe not looking forward to ice fishing

was surprised to see Okies walking on the ice a week back

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 16, 2018, 07:00:16 PM

Quote

CincyDawg:

I think the greenhouse analogy is pretty apt.  CO2 absorbs in the infrared band quite prominently.  This is easily measured and well known.  It is invisible in the visible band (duh).  So, light from the sun comes in and generates heat when it is absorbed by something.  That heat normally radiates back out into space and infrared radiation (IR).  If you "trap" the heat with glass, or CO2, or methane, or something, it doesn't radiate outward as much, and thus is trapped in a greenhouse type affair.

The explanation that the science guys in D/G&EnE gave me about real greenhouses is that they do not operate primarily through the glass trapping IR radiation but by physically keeping the warmed air from moving away.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 16, 2018, 07:03:13 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 14, 2018, 09:20:50 AM

was surprised to see Okies walking on the ice a week back

At least one of them--a retired doctor, I think, and a member of the U.S. 1956 Olympic ice-skating team--fell through the ice and died.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2018, 07:35:23 PM

that's not good

ice is dangerous, even for experienced northerners

I prefer it thick and solid enough to drive on with a pickup

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2018, 08:28:52 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on January 16, 2018, 07:00:16 PM

The explanation that the science guys in D/G&EnE gave me about real greenhouses is that they do not operate primarily through the glass trapping IR radiation but by physically keeping the warmed air from moving away.

Well, I strongly disagree.  Nothing inside a greenhouse generates any heat.  Same with your car.  The glass traps heat inside because it is preventing IR from radiating outward.

Strongly disagree.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on January 17, 2018, 08:47:11 AM

Meteor over Detroit metro last night registered as a 2.0, and lit up the sky.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rare-meteor-credited-bright-light-rattling-noise-over-michigan-n838311

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 17, 2018, 09:25:39 AM

The one meteorologist said the mercury over Cleveland registered 0 last nite.Getting up to 21 today - good times starting to climb out of the Artic Vortex

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2018, 09:58:11 AM

warming up in Iowa 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 06:48:23 PM

We registered a balmy 1 degree Fahrenheit in Tulsa early this morning.  Warmed up to a sizzling high of 30.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 07:05:56 PM

Quote

Cincydawg:

Well, I strongly disagree.  Nothing inside a greenhouse generates any heat.  Same with your car.  The glass traps heat inside because it is preventing IR from radiating outward.

Strongly disagree.

If nothing inside the greenhouse were generating any heat, then there would be no heat to trap.  Same with my car.  In the greenhouse, the ground and other solid objects inside are being heated by solar radiation and re-radiating IR as heat.  In my car, it's the materials of the interior.

The point is that it's the mechanical action of the glass keeping the warmed air from escaping via convection--not the IR-blocking action of the glass--that is largely responsible for keeping the heat inside the greenhouse.

There is not much of an analogy to that in the atmosphere.  But linear terrain features like mountain ranges can prevent heat-transfer via convection, which is somewhat analogous to the walls of the greenhouse.  Of course, the greenhouse has a ceiling too.  A temperature inversion can work like one in the  natural world.

At least according to Col. John H. Grubbs, Ph.D.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 17, 2018, 07:56:58 PM

If you look about halfway down this wiki page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect

You'll see the talk about real greenhouses and how they work. 

I don't think anyone is confused on this issue.  The greenhouse effect has always been analogy, not a literal description of the process.  It's just the idea that some gases absorb heat and thus stop IR from radiating away, and if we put a higher concentration of those gases in the troposphere, we'll retain more heat in the troposphere.  Pretty basic physics. 

Clouds do this too (where the main gas in this case is water vapor).  Anyone who has been in the desert at night knows how cold it can get on a clear night, as there's nothing to keep the IR close to the surface of the earth. 

There's nothing magic or mysterious or contentious about this.  It's just how it works.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 08:25:53 PM

Exactly.

Per the article on the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge: "'Greenhouse effect' is actually a misnomer since heating in the usual greenhouse is due to the reduction of convection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convection),^{[32] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect#cite_note-32)} while the "greenhouse effect" works by preventing absorbed heat from leaving the structure through radiative transfer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_transfer)."

As I said in my original post on this thread, "greenhouse effect" is a misnomer, but we live with many other misnomers, so it doesn't really matter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 17, 2018, 08:42:24 PM

You mean like "Big Game Bob" :o

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 11:13:53 PM

Quote from: CousinFreddie on January 17, 2018, 08:42:24 PM

You mean like "Big Game Bob" :o

Hmmmm.
I was thinking more like ".44 Magnum," which describes a handgun round with a bullet diameter of .429.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 17, 2018, 11:41:34 PM

And the 2 X 4, which is really 1.5 x 3.5

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 18, 2018, 03:52:27 AM

And describing emotional states as “matters of the heart”, when the heart is just a muscle in your chest, and emotions etc actually reside in the brain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:11:27 AM

Glass inhibits radiative reemission of heat.  So does CO2.  Same mechanism.  

While nothing inside the greenhouse generates heat, the light from the sun obviously does, same with your static car.

This is more than just trapping heat by a simple barrier.  It reduces heat radiation while allowing the light to enter.  Light hits something and it absorbed and that is reradiated as IR (heat radiation).

I see it as a very close analogy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:15:19 AM

https://climatekids.nasa.gov/greenhouse-effect/

https://www.readingma.gov/climate-advisory-committee/faq/what-are-the-greenhouse-effect-and-greenhouse-gases

http://berkeleysciencereview.com/greenhouse-gases-versus-glass-greenhouses/

The last citation, which is probably most authoritative, is in disagreement with my contentions here, so perhaps I am wrong, learn something every few years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:17:06 AM

" Robert W. Wood’s experiment was unreplicated until 2009, when Stanford Professor Vaughan R. Pratt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaughan_Pratt) put it to the test using very thorough internal controls and modern technology. Dr. Pratt failed to reproduce Wood’s work: he found that the box with the glass cover (greenhouse analog that trapped infrared light) was several degrees warmer than the one with the salt lid (the one that did not block any infrared light) (http://clim8.stanford.edu/WoodExpt/). Specifically, Pratt observed that the glass box, or greenhouse simulator, was between 1 to 6 °C (1.8 to 10.8°F) hotter than the box with the salt cover, depending on the placement of the thermometers within the box. Thus, in contrast to Wood, Professor Pratt did demonstrate that there is a small contribution from trapped infrared light even in physical greenhouses."

On the other hand, this is from that last citation.  This should be simple stuff really.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:40:37 AM

So, I reread that last article I cited, and find it confusing, but the experimental evidence suggests my point is correct.  We do know that glass doesn't allow IR to pass freely, just as CO2 doesn't allow IR to pass freely.  I'm going to hold with the analogy as being apt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:44:51 AM

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/grnhse.html

That is another usually credible source also.  I think the confusion may be because a glass greenhouse does BOTH, it prevents convection, which is not analogous to the atmosphere, and also prevents radiation of IR.  So, perhaps this is the point here, an actual glass greenhouse retains heat in part due to preventing convection, which is certainly true, and in part prevents IR from escaping as readily.  So, it isn't a pure analogy.

I know we used salt plates when running IR scans with the same on said salt plates.  The salt was transparent in the IR while glass is not.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2018, 12:19:11 PM

Quote from: CousinFreddie on January 17, 2018, 07:56:58 PM

Clouds do this too (where the main gas in this case is water vapor).  Anyone who has been in the desert at night knows how cold it can get on a clear night, as there's nothing to keep the IR close to the surface of the earth.  

Is that the mechanism? I thought it was more due to the desert being arid. Water vapor has a much higher specific heat than air, so it holds the thermal energy it picked up during the day, and carries it longer into the night. Dry areas don't have a lot of water vapor, so the air temperature changes much more quickly than it does in more humid climates.
That was my understanding, anyway. It would be interesting to know if that's incorrect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 01:02:12 PM

Clear nights always allow lower temperature no matter whether it is in desert or elsewhere.  Clouds keep the heat in, so to speak because they are opaque and diffract EM radiation like IR.  If it's clear, the IR radiates back into space readily, so you have a larger difference between daytime high and nighttime low.

An arid region is going to be clear more often for obvious reasons.  Evaporation of water does exert a cooling effect obviously and that is another factor.  That could be more important in nonarid regions where there is more to evaporate, but then the RH is higher there also.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on February 09, 2018, 12:56:42 PM

Grab your flak jacket and head for Mexico, it's Maunder Minimum II


http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865 (http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2018, 02:17:52 PM

"scientists" have been sending warnings of all types for centuries

they are a lot like the local weatherman on the 6 o'clock news - horribly inaccurate

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 09, 2018, 03:36:07 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 09, 2018, 02:17:52 PM

"scientists" have been sending warnings of all types for centuries

they are a lot like the local weatherman on the 6 o'clock news - horribly inaccurate

Not really true or fair. Very few people ever hear what "scientists" say. What they warn us about is generally a game of telephone between their original study, the PR firm hyping the study with a bombastic press release for the journal which published it to gain attention, the J-school grad who misreads the press release and is incapable of understanding the source material anyway but has to get clicks. And then the people who share/promote it through social media etc are doing it through confirmation bias and political agenda instead of actual scientific knowledge.
As I've said, WHENEVER you see stories like this, go to source material if you can. What you'll usually see is that the research by the scientist themselves is quite narrow and measured, and doesn't under any circumstances sound as dire and terrible as what the news article makes it out to be. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2018, 04:41:31 PM

Very true, and scientists write in a particular "style" that is often obscured in the translation into the popular media.

If you ever pick up a copy of Nature or Science and run across a paper on climate, you likely will find it obscure in its terminology, and I've never seen one ever claim "climate change is real".  They deal with one variable in one climate model and perhaps a variation on that in the main, or suggest another variable may need considering.  And those two journals are very top line high order things that generally feature only papers of a very high order.

This reminds me of a story from my work days.  Our director was determined to move us from a large upstream facility in the company to a very downstream location some 15 miles away.  I complained that we would be losing significant library assets, which was true, so he threw me a bone, some space, and $25,000 for journals important to our group.  Well, OK I guess, not the same, but better than nothing (stuff was not on line back then).  So, I order some journals, one of which was about $2500 a year as I recall, and put through the POs and the director's admin called me up and said "$2500 for MAGAZINES!!!!!".  She was livid, truly.  We ended up with a semi-decent library which no one but me ever used and later was thrown out to the trash when my career moved elsewhere.

I thought they should at least have burned them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 09, 2018, 05:09:07 PM

Compare the language in Temp430's link: http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865

With the language in the UCSD News Center [the scientists in question were from UCSD]: https://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/pressrelease/reduced_energy_from_the_sun_might_occur_by_mid_century

Then compare that the scientists who wrote this study weren't apparently making ANY claims about climate. The study was called "Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs"

Obviously this is important to climate, but in this quote, you can see that Lubin is NOT making climate claims, but providing data that may be of use to those who model climate and include solar radiation in their models.

“Now we have a benchmark from which we can perform better climate model simulations,” Lubin said. “We can therefore have a better idea of how changes in solar UV radiation affect climate change.”

Basically all they were looking as was how the fluctuation cycles worked. 

Then the IB Times starts throwing out "another ice age" fear-mongering, which didn't really come from anything in this study.

But hey, since nobody is actually going to read the above, hope you all enjoy your ice age. ;-)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on February 09, 2018, 05:14:40 PM

..... it reminds me of Norm at the end of the bar explaining complex circumstances in what he has decided is an authoritarian tone and language... Or the Home Improvement guy trying to repeat what the guy on the other side of the fence explained to him...

the economy of climate change isn't to be ignored, though, and that is what it's all about.  hell, it may be better described as a religion at this point... maybe even is theology described as a 'way to live' akin to Islam's directives and adherence.  

and then, there is this- which strikes the nail firmly on the head as far as the political aspect:

https://www.facebook.com/DankTrumpMeme/videos/1849914161897744/

which satisfies my sense of humor to watch- and does a better job of demonstrating the divide than I ever could, especially in the beginning.

all the while, there is something going on with the environment whether man made or not (as if we've cured the planet of ice ages? - said in jest- ) but i do know that bull shit walks and money talks.... and the entire thing whiffs of manipulation- which really irks me... if there is truth it stands on its own, if it stands on its own it's properly supported, if it's properly supported there is no need for 'call to emotion'.  

funny enough, i don't claim to understand much of the scientific data and how it relates to things i can observe myself, but....... most those who adhere to this strange religion/theology claim they do... in conversations with these folks, who ultimately get angry and start throwing insults- i usually find i understand it at least better than they do.  If i had the time i would love to study the facts and research their validity from all vantages, but this thing makes that hard before you encounter an extremist of some flavor or another.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2018, 05:28:49 PM

The vast majority of people with opinions on climate change derived those opinions from their politics, not their understanding of the science, even at a very basic level.  IMHO, Gore made this political (among others, but he did it first) and people who dislike Gore for political reasons now dislike his message, and it was adopted by others as a means to subvert any real steps taken to deal with the possible issue.

Also IMHO, it's too late to do anything substantive here that is practicable.  This is why we don't see actual plans anywhere, even in outline form, as in "Here is how we're going to replace the fossil fuel usage with alternatives over time, here is about what it will cost, and here is the projected impact on the climate change variable according to the models".

What is being discussed by climate change activists is trimming a few tenths of a degree from the predicted rise of 2-7°C.  Yay.  And eve n achieving THAT looks improbable and expensive to me.

It could also be that some massive change in technology comes faster than expected and renders things like wind and solar afterthoughts useful only in isolated areas far from distributed power.  That of course is not very likely though there is some decent progress being made now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2018, 06:57:29 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on February 09, 2018, 03:36:07 PM

Not really true or fair. Very few people ever hear what "scientists" say. What they warn us about is generally a game of telephone between their original study, the PR firm hyping the study with a bombastic press release for the journal which published it to gain attention, the J-school grad who misreads the press release and is incapable of understanding the source material anyway but has to get clicks. And then the people who share/promote it through social media etc are doing it through confirmation bias and political agenda instead of actual scientific knowledge.
As I've said, WHENEVER you see stories like this, go to source material if you can. What you'll usually see is that the research by the scientist themselves is quite narrow and measured, and doesn't under any circumstances sound as dire and terrible as what the news article makes it out to be.

sorry, that is why I put scientists in quotes
wasn't intended to dis science or true scientists
but, long before the internet or social media.  About 1975 when I was in Jr High, in science class we were taught that another "ice age" was coming from the use of fossil fuels
not long after we were told the earth was in grave danger of burning up because aerosol cans used Chlorofluorocarbons as propellants, but since the Montreal Protocol came into force in 1989, they have been replaced in nearly every country due to the negative effects CFCs have on Earth's ozone layer
I guess we will never know for sure if the ozone layer would have survived, but some folks certainly benefited monetarily from the transition.
yes, the folks that put out these articles are hacks much like the bitter drinken sportswriters that take quotes from a coach or player or administrator out of context to create something to grab fan's attention. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2018, 06:08:37 AM

The feared "ice age" in the 1970s never gained any real traction in the scientific community.  It was more speculation than anything with solid data behind it, and was based on orbital cycles over long periods (Malinkovitch Cycles, if I spelled that right).  There is also some speculation about solar radiation cycles, which of course are real, and how they may have contributed to the "Little Ice Age" circa 1550-1850, which may not have been global but regional.

The ice age thing made the cover of Time which made it seem as if many climate scientists were behind it.

I think we are in the process of "running the experiment" with CO2 and in 25 years or so we should have pretty solid data on the impact of 450 ppm in the atmosphere and how that impacts climate, for better or worse.  Any notion we can control this trend is not realistic in my view.  We might dent is a little.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2018, 01:08:04 PM

62 degrees in town today. Of course, it's gonna be in the 20's tomorrow morning, but this is pretty wild stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on February 20, 2018, 01:42:12 PM

It's 74 today in Pittsburgh.  We got 3 inches of snow 2 days ago.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2018, 01:46:07 PM

And you will probably get 3" of snow in 2 days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 20, 2018, 01:59:40 PM

The dew point is at 60 today.   To me that's more of an outlier than the possible record high temp today.    Going to make me really focus on getting the tree/shrub pruning done, despite Badge's truth, that it will likely snow this next week.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 21, 2018, 11:05:19 AM

It was down in the low 30s here yesterday morning... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2018, 01:49:39 PM

Our 10 day forecast has only one low as low as freezing, in February.

This is unusual.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2018, 02:09:21 PM

I'm jealous.

The long range here is for a below average March, April and May. I don't like that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2018, 04:13:58 PM

This below-average crap is starting to get really old, but I guess I should be happy I don't live in New England.

There has not been one day in March that the average has been hit here. That should change tomorrow - for one day. Then it's right back to the same crap.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 17, 2018, 04:17:48 PM

Tulips and others are starting to push up.  Time to do some pruning tomorrow on the rose bushes, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2018, 05:45:52 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2018, 02:09:21 PM

I'm jealous.

The long range here is for a below average March, April and May. I don't like that.

golf course might not open until April!!!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2018, 02:25:19 AM

Marc Morano's new book "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change" (Regnery Publishing) is just in time to refute the argument that "climate change" will destroy all life on Earth. It is a mark of Morano's dark humor that he features as an "endorsement" of the book a comment by the liberal Daily Kos, which calls Morano "evil personified."

The book is a point-by-point takedown of the predictions of disaster made by the climate change movement, none of which have materialized, but when one is part of a cult, facts don't matter.

In the book's foreword, the late John Coleman, who was a meteorologist, TV weatherman and co-founder of The Weather Channel, writes: "We meteorologists are well aware of how limited our ability is to predict the weather. Our predictions become dramatically less reliable as they extend into the future. When we try to predict just a few weeks into the future our predictions become increasingly inaccurate. Yet the 'climate change' establishment that now dominates the UN bureaucracy and our own government science establishment claim that they can predict the temperature of the Earth decades into the future."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2018, 08:36:30 AM

I remember watching Ol' John as a kid and beyond. Great personality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2018, 09:53:09 AM

While our ability to predict WEATHER is obviously dubious and testable, our ability to predict CLIMATE is not remotely the same thing.  It is possible we have tools to predict long term climate changes while being unable to predict weather 10-50 days out.

I also think the hype machine by folks like Gore have "muddied the waters" and turned this into a partisan issue rather than a technical one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2018, 09:54:17 AM

As for changing my own climate, we just signed a contract for a condo in Atlanta.  The weather there last week was cool but warming and spring had sprung.  We came back to freezing rain and clearly winter residues.

I wonder if it gets hot in summer down there?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2018, 10:11:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2018, 09:53:09 AM

I also think the hype machine by folks like Gore have "muddied the waters" and turned this into a partisan issue rather than a technical one.

CDawg: Winning the internet since Al Gore invented it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2018, 10:35:31 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 17, 2018, 05:45:52 PM

golf course might not open until April!!!!!

The Horror,hey move down to Austin,utee would be mre than happy to have you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2018, 10:54:29 AM

shoot, visited Texas twice in the past couple months.......

crap weather

and talk about horror!?!?!?!

the course in Arlington only allowed a 2 beer maximum per side!!!

straight up told the manager he was encouraging old fat guys to hide a six pack in the bottom of my golf bag

looking into Kansas as a retirement destination

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2018, 09:10:59 AM

Dammit, Tom.

7-day forecast: Easter in the 30s, rainy week ahead

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.trbimg.com%2Fimg-53e8e9e9%2Fturbine%2Fchi-tom-skilling-20140531%2F210%2F210x210&hash=3590d012fa2e6393c79aa91258c75c62)Tom Skilling (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/weather/chi-tom-skilling-20140531-staff.html#nt=byline)Contact ReporterAsk Tom
 
Saturday's brief influx of 60-degree air will likely be our mildest period for the next 10 days. Highs on Sunday will struggle to reach the upper 30s, a level about 15 degrees below the normal for April 1.
Forecasts have been consistent in maintaining a pool of cold air over Hudson Bay that will act to keep polar air flowing across the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
Guidance suggests temperatures through April 10 will average 12 to 15 degrees below normal. Snow is also possible during the period. April averages 1.2 inches of snow, with measurable accumulations having occurred in 59 percent of Aprils since 1885.
Some forecasts suggest that a period of snow may sweep across the area Thursday night in association with a new surge of cold air. This latest cold pattern is expected to ease heading into mid-month.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2018, 09:23:02 AM

April fools joke, right?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2018, 08:16:46 PM

Snow?  In April???

Global warming in full effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2018, 10:58:17 PM

in Austin?!?!?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 02, 2018, 08:26:42 AM

At least one snow per month from October to April. 

Lame. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 09:08:33 AM

This below-average pattern is expected to continue through the month of May.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2018, 09:18:29 AM

We received a light snow last night.  Maybe an inch, no road issues.

"Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on April 02, 2018, 09:24:51 AM

For the first time in a long time (going solely off recollection), Phoenix made it to the month of April without breaking 90 degrees.

It's been quite pleasant here the past few weeks for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 02, 2018, 09:36:43 AM

Today is a pretty normal Opening Day in Milwaukee.  It might be low 40s, some Sun not too much, and I'm sure the wind will get up at some point during the tailgate.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 09:37:01 AM

Climate is ever-changing.

Weather can be predicted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2018, 03:37:32 PM

I haven't heard from anyone that can successfully predict the weather here in NW Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 04:17:40 PM

High of 28 and low of 15 predicted for this Friday. I'll let you know how that comes out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2018, 06:43:41 PM

High of 29 and low of 19 predicted for this Friday on Weather Underground dot com. The locals bent on hyperbole I refuse to acknowledge.   I'll let you know how that comes out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 02, 2018, 07:03:22 PM

meanwhile, spring has sprung on the mid atlantic coast... which makes me unpopular in this discussion, but not near as unpopular as saying:  I'd like to see a few more weeks of cold and snow up in the upper wisconsin area- my ski rental is doing well this year- and a few more weeks makes me happier than not.... 

i think it was four years ago i drove up to Iron county on the fifth/sixth of July... windows open in clean upland air- no noise pollution- i went to sleep with the windows open...... and it dropped to 34 degrees that night... WTF???? the next week highs were hardly out of the sixties- and i had on sleeves and a jacket more than not while everyone around me was dressed like some tropical island... i'd live up there if i could, but not in the winter.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 07:13:39 PM

Well, they just had a foot of snow North of Madison and it's not gonna warm up much. You should be happy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 02, 2018, 07:29:46 PM

i'm booked through the end of the month.... and have been.. the 'problem' is when it's warm and the slope clears, and folks want refunds..... which i don't mind issuing don't get me wrong... but i'd obviously rather keep it or work a deal out with them for the following season.  

i really want to get up there for deer season one year... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2018, 09:15:34 PM

Our pool still hasn't made it above 70.  Last year during Spring Break we were swimming, this year it's two weeks later and we still haven't been in.  Darn good thing we have the hot tub!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 11:15:37 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2018, 09:15:34 PM

Our pool still hasn't made it above 70.  Last year during Spring Break we were swimming, this year it's two weeks later and we still haven't been in.  Darn good thing we have the hot tub!

Is 70*F your minimum threshold? You southerners have different tolerances than I'm used to. ;- )

Growing up, we'd be swimming in the St. Clair River (GL waterway) by May. The water temps usually hadn't passed 45-50*F by then. Perfect for cooling off after street hockey...or wheelbarrowing slag.

I think it's a lot warmer now though. I read that Lake Huron's surface *average* had gotten to around 69/70 the last two summers, which is 10-15 points warmer than the avg surface temperatures I recall as a kid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2018, 11:24:50 AM

Average of 69/70?

Hasn't really changed over the past 20 years.

The trend lately has been downward.

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=g&yr=2017

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 12:27:36 PM

I interpret that data differently. What matters most for summer surface averages are two variables: the peak height is one part. And (at or about 21*C) that's consistent with what I was saying about ~70*F average surface temperatures in the two recent summers. The other part, is the breadth of that peak. How many days does the daily average stay at or above 16/17/18/19/20*C?
To me, it's inconclusive from this data set whether the peaks temperatures are changing. Though the years with Huron record highs are similar to each other, there might be a changing pattern among years whose "highs" are abnormally low. E.g., of the first ten full years at your link, three (1997, 2000, 2004) failed to hit 20*C. Of the last 10 years posted, only one (2014) failed to hit that mark. But this is a small sample size and I'm happy to recommend we draw no conclusions or trends from it. Still it does deserve at least those two sentences.
The most meaningful difference about 2017, which I'm guessing was the biggest contributor to the "record total summer average" I read in the news regards its graph shape. It peaks as a broad plateau, more broad than any other in the data set. The 2017 curve rises above 18*C and stays there 2 to 7 weeks longer than any other curve. And I suppose that's the detail you shared that is most consistent with my off-hand remark: that 2017 was an outlier.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 12:47:06 PM

I guess we have two conversations going, then. One is whether 2017 was an outlier. The other is whether it was a 10+ point outlier from my youth. We should drop the second point. Because I was swimming in river water, so even though the Huron was its direct source, comparing the surface temps of relatively mixed water to relatively unmixed water was not reasonable. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2018, 12:58:54 PM

The lakes have generally been colder, which is reflected in catching (or not) salmon.

They like 54 degree water and the past 5 or so years they have been fairly shallow throughout Lake Michigan (generally a little warmer than Huron, even though they are the same water body).

100 feet or less of water is now the norm, where in years past it was not uncommon to have to fish in 2-300 feet of water to find that 54 degree temp.

Surface water is subject to many variables. Is it sunny? Has it rained a lot? What are the wind conditions, current patterns, and so on.

The past few years before last have generally been colder on the surface, mostly due to prolonged ice coverage (which also helped against evaporation).

Regardless, the surface temp last year, according to my own measurements, never got above 68 degrees outside of the Kenosha, WI harbor mouth. We had a lot of West winds last year, and those tend to push the warmer water to the other side of the pond.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2018, 01:40:22 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 11:15:37 AM

Is 70*F your minimum threshold? You southerners have different tolerances than I'm used to. ;- )

Growing up, we'd be swimming in the St. Clair River (GL waterway) by May. The water temps usually hadn't passed 45-50*F by then. Perfect for cooling off after street hockey...or wheelbarrowing slag.

I think it's a lot warmer now though. I read that Lake Huron's surface *average* had gotten to around 69/70 the last two summers, which is 10-15 points warmer than the avg surface temperatures I recall as a kid.

Sure, why not, 70 can be a minimum threshold.  Since it typically has us swimming in mid-March, it works pretty well.  Waiting until May to swim in 45 degree water sounds... well... terrible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 01:48:25 PM

45 is too cool for me

causes shrinkage

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 04:35:04 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 01:48:25 PM

45 is too cool for me

causes shrinkage

As problems go, shrinkage doesn't make my list. I'm a big fan of the iciness. I'm into extended snowy camping, though that's not really about being cold; it's about being so prepared that you aren't. A better example might be polar plunges. I think those are good fun. One time, in Iceland, the wife and I visited a remote spa that let us leap back and forth from natural thermal pools and a lake filled with glacial meltwater and calved icebergs. Unforgettable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 05:00:28 PM

don't know if I could actually mentally prepare myself for the polar plunge

now alcohol..........

physically, there's gonna be some shrinkage - regardless of preparation

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 05:20:29 PM

Yeah, dipping in cold water for no reason is a bit daffy. People who do it might like that others think so. As a kid though, jumping in was generally about being overheated playing sports or doing yard work for the folks. Anyone who's ever enjoyed a well timed cold shower can relate. As for winter camping at 10*F with the right equipment, I think any outdoorsy person would love it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 06:57:32 PM

I spent my youth enjoying outdoor winter activities.  Always enjoyed them despite the cold.  Camping, skiing (downhill in Colorado), ice fishing, hunting, trapping, hockey, sledding, snowmobiling, backyard football in 4 buckle overshoes.

Huge fan of Bud Grant, dress properly and stay active, no problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2018, 07:35:20 PM

I like my outdoor activities to involve being on top of water, with an air temperature of at least 70.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 07:56:38 PM

I agree, but I wasn't lucky enough to be born in Austin, TX like Utee

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2018, 09:35:46 AM

Here is my succinct opinion about climate change variables:

1.  CO2 levels have been rising due to fossil fuel combustion.  This is a simple fact.  Isotopic analysis shows most of the additional CO2 is from fossil fuels.  
2.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  This also is a fact.  The IR spectrum of CO2 shows this to be the case.
3.  More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere COULD result in less radiative cooling, also a fact.  At some point, the effect can be saturated and more doesn't mean higher Ts.  We're not there yet.
4.  The pure effect of this can be calculated, as a single variable, reliably, and is a couple tenths of a °C by 2100.  E.g., the specific primary effect is pretty small.
5.  There are however many secondary effects which is what climate folks try and model, forcing factors, like when ice melts the albedo decreases leading to more heating.  This is very tricky and complex stuff and I'm not sure anyone has it right, but it is reasonable that the heating impact is greater than what is in Item 4 above.  
6.  If one accepts the IPCC estimates, the heating range will be 2-7°C by 2100, the upper limits of that being pretty catastrophic if it happens.  There is some chance it is "misoverestimated" and will be more like 1°C which would be "OK".
7.  There isn't much we can do to stop this technically.  This is the hard reality of the story.  A massive and expensive shift to nuclear power would have some impact, but isn't happening.  Wind and solar will remain in the margins when you look at how much electricity we derived from fossil fuels globally.  The rate of CO2 generation is going to continue to rise whether we sign agreements or not.

The one far out hope would be power from nuclear fusion that would be a game changer, but we "I" have no idea when that might become reality.  Perhaps in 30 years fusion power could start to replace current power sources, optimistically.  The current ITER experiment is somewhat promising, but there would be a lot of work even if they are successful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2018, 10:48:12 AM

I just signed up with a client to provide design services for 5 solar farms in Illinois. Yay for us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2018, 12:42:00 PM

does each of the 5 farms have at least 1,000 windmills?

100,000 would be better obviously

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2018, 12:48:00 PM

new record low here in Sewer City this morning

old record low was 15 set in 2002 - this morning the temp dropped to 9 degrees

old record high of 90 was set in 1929 - probably what killed the dinosaurs 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 04, 2018, 03:05:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2018, 09:35:46 AM

Here is my succinct opinion about climate change variables:

1.  CO2 levels have been rising due to fossil fuel combustion.  This is a simple fact.  Isotopic analysis shows most of the additional CO2 is from fossil fuels.  
2.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  This also is a fact.  The IR spectrum of CO2 shows this to be the case.
3.  More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere COULD result in less radiative cooling, also a fact.  At some point, the effect can be saturated and more doesn't mean higher Ts.  We're not there yet.
4.  The pure effect of this can be calculated, as a single variable, reliably, and is a couple tenths of a °C by 2100.  E.g., the specific primary effect is pretty small.
5.  There are however many secondary effects which is what climate folks try and model, forcing factors, like when ice melts the albedo decreases leading to more heating.  This is very tricky and complex stuff and I'm not sure anyone has it right, but it is reasonable that the heating impact is greater than what is in Item 4 above.  
6.  If one accepts the IPCC estimates, the heating range will be 2-7°C by 2100, the upper limits of that being pretty catastrophic if it happens.  There is some chance it is "misoverestimated" and will be more like 1°C which would be "OK".
7.  There isn't much we can do to stop this technically.  This is the hard reality of the story.  A massive and expensive shift to nuclear power would have some impact, but isn't happening.  Wind and solar will remain in the margins when you look at how much electricity we derived from fossil fuels globally.  The rate of CO2 generation is going to continue to rise whether we sign agreements or not.

The one far out hope would be power from nuclear fusion that would be a game changer, but we "I" have no idea when that might become reality.  Perhaps in 30 years fusion power could start to replace current power sources, optimistically.  The current ITER experiment is somewhat promising, but there would be a lot of work even if they are successful.

Doing the lord's work there, and I just plain agree -- among the better summaries I've seen. My only point of contention, and it isn't really full-on, has to do with item number 7. You don't explicitly state that it's hopeless, but the spirit there does welcome that counterargument -- that there's not much we can do, "So why try?" 

To which I always like to emphasize that being a good steward of the planet isn't just for tree huggers at Burning Man, it's for well-intending citizens and grandparents of every kind. From that perspective, the production of greenhouse gases isn't the only way we taint things. The same driving forces have volatilized the constituents of smog in several major cities, which appear to measurably lower human lifespan. And though not directly related, insufficient stewardship of a different kind has also facilitated a growing island of floating plastic the size of Texas in Pacific. And that's still without mentioning contamination (be it from hydrocarbons, heavy metals, radionuclides, etc.) of our limited groundwater, fisheries, lakes and so on. 

We can do a lot better, and until we start to brush up against those realistic limits of "try," we definitely should.

Then again, in my experience, getting people to agree on this value of stewardship is not hard. The hardest parts are (1) depoliticizing it so that real talking is possible and (2) being humble/patient enough that the listener doesn't get turned away by chest thumping about "my facts" and authority. 

When it comes down to it, that disconnect is the case for most controversial scientific conversations of our time -- also including evolution, stem cell therapies, vaccines and so on. Too many people with the most persuasive evidence available end up delivering it in a terribly arrogant and absolute way. I don't mean that as finger-pointing either. I know there've been many times when I've been at my wits end trying to convey scientific information (trying the right way) to an online audience but failed and wrote it all wrong. 

Because those behaviors (humility, patience) that these discussions need most are two of the hardest behaviors to consistently exhibit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2018, 03:20:20 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 04, 2018, 12:48:00 PM

new record low here in Sewer City this morning

old record low was 15 set in 2002 - this morning the temp dropped to 9 degrees

old record high of 90 was set in 1929 - probably what killed the dinosaurs

Illinois has never seen an April chill like this.
When the mercury dropped below zero early Monday morning, it broke records for a low temperature in Illinois for the month of April.
Meteorologist Chuck Schaffer with the National Weather Service’s Lincoln, IL station was one that saw the record chill.

My sister-in-law was just in Beijing with my nieces and nephew.  There are pictures of them on book face wearing breathing masks because the air is so terrible there. They took pictures of the "sky" and you cannot see the sun, clouds or blue. They left China early and are now in Bali.

Scientists need to take a look over that way, methinks. We are generally doing our part, here on our soil. And who the F knows what Russia is up to.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2018, 10:01:59 PM

When I look realistically at the practicable means of lowering CO2 emissions enough to matter, I don't see anything.

It's really simple math.  Folks say "wind and solar" as if that is some panacea.  It isn't, the math does not lie.  We need something HUGE to replace coal and NG.  Much larger than anything wind and solar can do any time soon.  Wind in the US is about 6% of the grid.  Yay.  Great.  NG and coal are 11 times that.  Eleven times that.

Maybe fusion will save the day, but I think it is likely too far out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 04, 2018, 10:24:32 PM

I'm not big on a cure-all either. Maybe fusion won't arrive "in time." 

But I am big on trying. And maybe is *more* than anyone needs to make the choice to try. That sentiment is not restricted to fusion, either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2018, 06:33:44 AM

I'm sure folks are going to try, but they should be realistic about what trying can accomplish, a small dent, maybe.  

If the world community had started i say 1990 in a serious fashion perhaps trying would have done more than a small dent.  Instead folks had meetings and signed useless agreements while China was opening a new coal fired station every week.  There also is a kind of momentum in the climate where even if the world went to zero carbon TODAY we'd still see warming if the models are right, and quite a bit of it.  China has agreed to do something starting in 2030, yay.

Wind, solar, and hydro might make a slight dent in all of this, but those things alone are not growing nearly fast enough to do more than "try".  I think we should put some effort into managing things like rising sea levels as well as "trying" to make it all somewhat less of an impact.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2018, 10:17:28 AM

China is the elephant in the room here fellas. Lots of people live there. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 05, 2018, 11:44:54 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2018, 10:17:28 AM

China is the elephant in the room here fellas. Lots of people live there.

No doubt. They've been more short-sighted than most and it's a major problem for all of us. At the same time, emphasizing that part and getting bogged down in who owes what and "I'll never pay unless you pay your full share, at the exact same time, now go" puts us in a prisoner's dilemma situation where every actor/state, from the perspective of being ledger conscious, is best served by (using P.D. vernacular here) the inaction/betrayal choice rather than cooperation/acquiescence option.

That isn't the same thing as naively saying that stewardship should be disconnected from economics. We have to care about the bottom line if only because ignoring it is clearly inconsistent with human nature. Instead, I'm just saying that the economic costs of poor stewardship are intense enough that we should make the investments no matter what. In modest ways, we already are. But our leaders still fight about doing more (or anything at all). Yet doing more is both the best option morally *and*, if you consider the next few generations' of economic costs for inaction now, fully worth the investment in dollars and cents.

It may not be possible to overstate the downsides, e.g., of desertification on world hunger or the impact of rising seas on the world's largest populations. There's probably no cost that could be paid from a budget now that is greater in magnitude. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2018, 12:20:12 PM

we're doomed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on April 05, 2018, 01:44:23 PM

Have not seen any robins yet in my area this spring.  Usually see the first by the second week of March.  Wherever they overwinter I'm guessing they likely expired from excessive heat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2018, 02:06:28 PM

More snow here in the offing tomorrow night.  It's not cold, but snow here this late is unusual.  But that's weather, not climate.  

Humans generally don't do a great job doing statistics in their heads.  The media of course contribute to this by highlighting whatever gains eyeballs and make it appear to be something major when statistically it may be a minor or random or rare event.  

A long time ago, I had an "engine out" even in a plane with one engine in Indiana, and the Dayton news stations sent two crews out.  Their eleven o'clock news led with "Excitement in the skies over Indiana!".  And yes, it was exciting for me and my passenger, but we landed fine in soy bean field, no injuries, no damage to anything.  But I guess they had nothing else to lead and get one's attention to see what happened.  

Had there been a fire or car accident or burglary of note they would have led with that, and viewers get impressions this sort of thing happens "all the time".  The media rarely report something that indeed happens all the time.

Not a big fan of most media outlets, frankly, though I do enjoy NPR most of the time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 05, 2018, 02:45:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2018, 12:20:12 PM

we're doomed

You? Almost certainly not. But if you have kids who'll have kids and so on, then there's a good chance. Anyway, for anyone who has ever camped and found the principle of "Leave No Trace" worth teaching and following, the story is here is barely different.

Even if CO2 emissions are too controversial a topic for us to connect and we have to move the goalposts to discuss smog, oil spills, deforestation, or Texas-sized Pacific islands of plastic, there's no denying that we are leaving a trace and that trace is metaphorical garbage.

All of this falls under the umbrella of stewardship.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 09:09:42 AM

Seven plus billion humans will do that.  We can preach stewardship, but what I see is reality.

Think about shopping carts at a store.  They end up all over the place, sometimes blocks away, because humans are too lazy (some of us) to move them a few feet to the corral.  Convenience for one may be inconvenience for others, and the one may just not care.

Walmart is the worst for this obviously.

The current bottled water craze is another example.  We managed to live for centuries with only expensive bottled water and now everyone lugs out cases of the stuff to drink and discard the bottle.

Most humans will choose convenience, ease, and cheap over something slightly more demanding that is more stewardly.

Human nature.  And don't get me started on fructose.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 09:12:09 AM

Think about SUVs.  When I had kids, I had two minivans.  Yes, they weren't cool, but they got better mpgs than any SUV of similar capacity, and had sliding doors to boot.  But, people want "cool", something that is a quasi-truck cool, but really is a poor excuse for a minivan.  Unless you tow, a minivan is far better than an SUV, and cheaper to boot.

Europe is more practical in part because they are less wealthy in the main, so you see almost no SUVs and pickup trucks.  They have smaller minivans and work vans, usually with Diesel engines and manual gear boxes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 09:27:21 AM

My twins were in NROTC at Ohio State.  They cleaned up the stadium after football games to earn money for the program.  They had some interesting stories about what they came across cleaning the place, not pretty at all, and an indication as to how humans despoil even places they "revere".

I used to get really mad seeing litter and trash spread around, it still annoys me, but I just pick it up if I can.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2018, 10:02:00 AM

I work really hard to not have to go to Walmart*. I don't like what it's become and I don't like the vibe. The shopping cart example is just one of many things that drives me nuts about that place.


* I DO go there once a year, to pick up the supplies I need for my boat. Head treatment, potable water treatment, antifreeze, stabile, etc. I go at 7AM before the masses show up in droves.

Mine is always the first shopping cart in the corral. Maybe the last too, but I'll never know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2018, 10:05:57 AM

Europe is practical for a lot of reasons. They walk a lot and the train system is fantastic. I saw a lot of cars by familiar makers that I've never seen here. Yes, they were smaller.

Not a whole lot of bottled water over there either, except for American tourists, in my observation. I did notice a lot of people had their own bottles that they could fill and carry. I did find Italy to be very dry, so wherever we went to eat or get a caffeine boost, we always asked for water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2018, 11:29:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 09:12:09 AM

Think about SUVs.  When I had kids, I had two minivans.  Yes, they weren't cool, but they got better mpgs than any SUV of similar capacity, and had sliding doors to boot.  But, people want "cool", something that is a quasi-truck cool, but really is a poor excuse for a minivan.  Unless you tow, a minivan is far better than an SUV, and cheaper to boot.

Europe is more practical in part because they are less wealthy in the main, so you see almost no SUVs and pickup trucks.  They have smaller minivans and work vans, usually with Diesel engines and manual gear boxes.

Well, the SUV craze isn't what it used to be. These days, people buy "crossovers", which are basically minivans without the sliding doors and "soccer mom" vibe. Most/many are on car chassis instead of truck chassis, FWD, and at least not horrible for gas mileage. 

I also think that Europe have smaller vehicles because EVERYTHING is much more compact. Walking around Rome/Florence/Paris over the last few weeks, I can't imagine driving my Ford Flex around there. Even worse to try to find a parking spot anywhere. 

I would say that I was already aware that manual transmissions were the norm in Europe, but I was surprised how far it extended. In Rome they only have Uber Black (no UberX) so we once got picked up by a luxury Mercedes van, and of course it had a manual. Pretty much everything I saw there was a manual.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2018, 10:05:57 AM

Europe is practical for a lot of reasons. They walk a lot and the train system is fantastic. I saw a lot of cars by familiar makers that I've never seen here. Yes, they were smaller.

Not a whole lot of bottled water over there either, except for American tourists, in my observation. I did notice a lot of people had their own bottles that they could fill and carry. I did find Italy to be very dry, so wherever we went to eat or get a caffeine boost, we always asked for water.

I wonder how it is outside the cities, though? I mean, in downtown Chicago/New York people also walk a lot and use public transit, but once you get outside the metro area it becomes MUCH harder to do so because population density falls off quickly. 

I would agree about all the makes and models of cars, though. It was funny actually trying to get an Uber and it tells me the car coming to pick me up is a Seat, or a Renault, or a Peugeot. I had no idea what the heck I was even looking for!

Agreed on the water, except that I actually saw quite a lot of bottled water at the restaurants. It seemed normal there to buy a bottle of water for the table (even still water, not the sparkling). 

Water must be precious in Italy, in fact, because it seems impossible to get more than 3 oz of coffee at a time!  :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 03:07:03 PM

We stayed four nights in Evian, home of the bottled water, and it of course spelled backwards is naive.

We did not do the "tour" there, but it's a nice town (so is Nice).  

Automatic transmissions these days are usually more efficient, and faster, than the manuals, except for underpowered cars, which describes most of what you get in Europe.

One thing you see rarely is a Japanese or Korean car in France, very rarely.  German and French and the odd Italian Fiat 500.  

In the smaller cities that lack subways or trains or buses, people still walk a lot because the towns are small and host a lot of people in a small area.  We stay in Fontainebleau quite often for various reasons.  They have buses and  trains that run to Paris and Lyon etc. but no subway.  We stay at a friend's guest house that is 3-4 blocks from the downtown area and we walk unless we go to the other side of town when we drive.  Some good friends live in a very small village and they walk to the stores, usually, but a trip to Carrefour or whatever means driving.  

And of course in Paris etc. you see a TON of scooters that can park almost anywhere.  Some of them have tandem tires on the front which is a bit odd looking.  I think they are limited to 50 ccs and they pollute like crazy.

The European cities have discovered they have air pollution issues because 30 years ago they shifted to Diesels to minimize CO2 emissions and thus maximized other emissions, NOx etc.  Big mistake.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 03:08:47 PM

I once rented a "minivan" in France back when.  It was a Puegot 805 I think, we had five people, but it was smaller than our minivans and we had to get another vehicle for luggage etc.  The van had a manual transmission, which was fine with me.  I once got a car with a dual clutch transmission that was HORRIBLE.  I presume they are better now.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2018, 08:27:45 PM

Small SUVs and Crossovers are simply glorified mini vans

I won't have one

a pickup truck, sedan or coupe for me

I have to b really thirsty to buy bottled water

been to Walmart about 4 times in the past 5 years - money is never the reason

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 05:51:30 AM

I don't see the issue with minivans personally.  If I had kids again, I'd buy another one.  Of course my current drive is a 2012 Chevy Sonic with a 6-spd so I'm not too particular especially considering I like to read about cars.

The wife drives a Caddy CTS which she says is too big for her, so we have agreed that after the move, the Sonic goes to my daughter and as soon as I get a handle on the money thing we'll buy a VW GTI - small car for the city, comes with a 6 spd, decent room in the back, good handling for FWD, good mpgs, pretty good acceleration, plenty good enough.

I helped the other kid buy a new car and got a Cruze Diesel with a 6 spd and that car gets over 60 mpg routinely on the highway, which is pretty remarkable to me, but Americans don't like Diesels outside trucks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 05:54:14 AM

One issue I see with "home solar" is lack of a turn key installation capacity, or maybe I didn't find it.  A few years back I looked into roof top PVs and I could buy the PVs but then you had to find a contractor who could install and license and certify.  You have to have a "backfeed preventer".

The math was not close to working anyway so I didn't bother.

This Musk fellow annoys me with all his promises that he doesn't deliver on.  Those rooftop solar "shingles" sounded like a great idea until one looked into what he's talking about, and he hasn't delivered on that yet either.

He seems to be "visionary" without much substance.

If there were local companies who could turnkey roof top solar, we'd have more of it especially in desert regions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 09:31:38 AM

How the heck do you fit in a Sonic CDawg?

Is it like a Hightower thing where you sit in the back seat?


Those GTI's are a trip. One of my friends has one and it's like a little rocket. Very fun.

The Caddy ATS (certain varieties) is nice, but "ATS" always makes me think of "against the spread" so I could never have one.

"CTS" is "cover the spread" so that's not an option either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 09:39:53 AM

my biggest issue with minivans is the look/image/style

the other factor is handling/performance

I'd rather overcome the inconvenience of loading and unloading kids/gear

my father drove a 2-door 1964 Ford Galaxie 500 XL when I was a kid.  Of course there were no car seats back then, but my brother and I got in and out of the backseat just fine

I drove mostly big late 80's early 90s versions of Caprice classics when my daughters were very young.  Plenty of room.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 09:41:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 05:54:14 AM

One issue I see with "home solar" is lack of a turn key installation capacity, or maybe I didn't find it.  A few years back I looked into roof top PVs and I could buy the PVs but then you had to find a contractor who could install and license and certify.  You have to have a "backfeed preventer".

The math was not close to working anyway so I didn't bother.

This Musk fellow annoys me with all his promises that he doesn't deliver on.  Those rooftop solar "shingles" sounded like a great idea until one looked into what he's talking about, and he hasn't delivered on that yet either.

He seems to be "visionary" without much substance.

If there were local companies who could turnkey roof top solar, we'd have more of it especially in desert regions.

They don't look very nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 09:42:16 AM

I grew up driving manuals, first 3 cars were 4-speeds

as I've gotten older and do more town/city driving I value the auto tranny - just lazy

gas is cheap

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 10:04:39 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 09:31:38 AM

How the heck do you fit in a Sonic CDawg?


Those GTI's are a trip. One of my friends has one and it's like a little rocket. Very fun.

The Caddy ATS (certain varieties) is nice, but "ATS" always makes me think of "against the spread" so I could never have one.

"CTS" is "cover the spread" so that's not an option either.


The Sonic is the ONLY car I've ever been in where the seat is not adjusted as far back as it will go.  I have it one notch ahead of all the way back.  It's a hatchback and I like it, except it has no power below 1800 RPM.  

The CTS is very luxurious but also handles well as it has the MHD suspension.  The only problem I have with it is the tires which are run flat 35 series profile P-Zeros and we've "busted" 5 of them plus one rim.  They cost $450 a piece.  I complained so much Caddy gave me a free warranty which covered the last two.  If you hit anything at any speed they get demolished.  I'm told run flats have this problem in low profile tires.  

The GTI is a quick car but not terribly fast for these days, but the manual makes it seem so.  And automatics these days usually get better mpgs than manuals.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 10:05:47 AM

I signed up to drive the Cadillac "Vs" on the COTA track in Austin.  I probably already posted about that, it was a hoot.  The CTS-V is too much for a street car I think, an honest 200 mph top end (I saw about 140).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 10:08:43 AM

Very surprising to hear about the room in the Sonic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 10:16:04 AM

not easy to change out the P-Zeros?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 10:17:11 AM

23 degrees outside right now. Low of 17 tonight.

Today is January 81, 2018.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 10:19:52 AM

You can set your winter watch by this fact: With the first big snow of the season, someone will ask Estherville, Iowa, residents about their buzz word: Blizzard.

A chilly claim to fame.

"Yes, people ask us about it," said Marcia Huntsinger, a resident of the Emmet County seat and a staff member at Estherville Public Library.

With that, Huntsinger consulted the book "Esther's Town" by longtime Estherville Daily News editor Deemer Lee.

Lee wrote that in April 1871 editor O.C Bates of The Vindicator newspaper couldn't think of a word forceful enough to describe a storm that hit the open prairie.

"He described the seasonably late blinding snowstorm as a blizzard, giving meaning to the word from that day forward," Huntsinger noted.

Estherville, like much of Siouxland, dug through 5 to 8 inches of snow Wednesday. Did Huntsinger consider it a blizzard?

"I would not consider this a blizzard," she said. "But it's a real hard call from downtown where we are, as opposed to the country where it can be a white out. But this is far from what I consider a blizzard here."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 07, 2018, 10:21:24 AM

i flew out to San Diego not long ago... had business on Pendleton to attend.. had to rent a car and the gov is getting tight about such things... i got a chevy cruze... a tiny one... and there i was winding that poor thing up heading toward the base with cars whipping past me... i couldn't help but think of Saturday Night Live in that thing singing to myself "Fat man in a little coat".

my buds golf r he's selling is tiny... i'm pretty sure i could put it on the roof rack of my truck and hardly notice it.. however, he ain't no small fella and neither am i- we both fit in that thing fine and leg room isn't/wasn't an issue.. that freakin car, with over 500# of cargo (me and him) is friggin' FAST... not a little, a LOT.  0-60 in UNDER 4 seconds..

i love solar power- it works for me on several projects... it's the gov't that makes it so hard for regular folks to implement.. i'd have a roof of panels if it weren't for that.  as it is, i have a small panel here, there, there, here... i have a battery tender atop my truck's roof rack that straight up CHARGES that aux group 24 battery, not just tends it.  if it weren't for gov't......

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/11133750_10153313751723755_3357217836236128400_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=42fe204116cded5d1541fa88a4599563&oe=5B351A57)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 10:21:46 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 10:17:11 AM

23 degrees outside right now. Low of 17 tonight.

Today is January 81, 2018.

set another record low early this morning - 12 degrees above

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on April 07, 2018, 11:14:06 AM

4 years ago when the ex and I were getting ready for the arrival of our twins we realized her Lexus IS250, despite being a 4 door car, was NOT roomy enough so we traded it in for a Dodge Grand Caravan with minimal options and we couldn't have been happier. Yeah, that Lexus was a blast to drive (as long as there was no ice or snow) but the van was so immensely more practical and convenient. Although when we split we agreed to let her keep the van without any issues. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 11:26:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 10:16:04 AM

not easy to change out the P-Zeros?

Impossible in fact.  That is the ONLY run flat tire available in that size from ANY vendor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 11:27:49 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 10:08:43 AM

Very surprising to hear about the room in the Sonic.

Yeah, I know, of course nobody sits behind me either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2018, 04:39:35 PM

For you large fellas out there, I gotta give another shout out to the Ford Flex. That thing is a rolling La-Z-Boy, and the 2nd row seats are actually quite comfortable for folks of stature as well. In fact, in a pinch I (6'5" 260#) could probably pinch into the 3rd row for short trips. Granted, for folks like Cincy that are in the downsizing process, there's no need for such a big vehicle. But for what I was looking for (capable of taking 5 passengers and eventually a dog on a road trip), it has plenty of size but doesn't look like a minivan. It's more comfortable and roomy than all the other "crossover" SUVs, and outside of something massive like a Yukon/Suburban, has great amount of room. It even handles pretty well for being such a heavy pig...

I have nothing against minivans, BTW. They're *great* family vehicles. But I figured that with only having the kids 40% of the time, I didn't want to be driving a minivan the rest of the time lol.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 07, 2018, 05:01:31 PM

I've rented the Flex a few times on vacation.  Fits tall adults too.  My #1 hang up w mini vans is lousy torque. No punch.  Once kids were 5 and up, I went back to 4dr sedan.  I do miss the Outback at times.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 07:44:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 11:26:41 AM

Impossible in fact.  That is the ONLY run flat tire available in that size from ANY vendor.

so the run flat is a must for the missus?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2018, 06:06:11 AM

I considered regular tires, and was warned off doing that by the dealer AND a Michelin tire guy (I was prepared to buy his tires).  There is no spare of course and if you get a flat for whatever reason you are dead in the water.

My solution is to trade (or sell) the car once we are settled in the ATL.  The all wheel drive should be less of a need in the South.  The GTI gets better mileage and can run on regular gas.  I hate to trade a very clean car with only 40 K miles on it at four years old because that is about the nadir of the depreciation rate, or the apogee I suppose it is.  It won't depreciate much from here is what I'm saying.

It's just too big a car for her preferences.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 08:39:43 AM

I added up some days, and today is January 98, 2018.

Gonna snow on the 99th.

Meanwhile, my boat sits in a storage building.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 09:09:21 AM

started snowing here a few minutes ago

expecting 3 inches with wind 20-30mph

29 degrees

my golf cart sits in the shed

chilly at Augusta as well

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2018, 09:27:15 AM

Sunny and chilly here, sunny makes it better, a few skiffs of snow remaining from Saturday.

Mixed freezing stuff in the forecast.  I'm surprised how many folks we know asked why we were moving.  Many of them know nothing about Atlanta other than that there is an airport there.  I found that a trifle surprising.  Our French friends probably know more about it that some Cincinnatians, who can be rather insular at times.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/3/30/17173912/west-peachtree-street-midtown-development-alexan-coda-ascent

The area to which we are moving is exploding with construction cranes.  We're fortunately off to the side next to the park, so this is 3-4 blocks away in the main.  Unfortunately, we're also about a mile from the Georgia North Avenue Trade School.

The Dawgs play them in football each year, I can probably walk to the games and tickets are pretty easy to obtain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 09:32:24 AM

I think about attending Husker football games when thinking about moving south some fine day

that's why I think Kansas might be far enuff south

now if they would simply recreate the Sooner rivalry annual game I could go as far as Dallas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2018, 09:57:04 AM

Shorts and sandals weather here . 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 10:04:02 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2018, 09:27:15 AM

Sunny and chilly here, sunny makes it better, a few skiffs of snow remaining from Saturday.

Mixed freezing stuff in the forecast.  I'm surprised how many folks we know asked why we were moving.  Many of them know nothing about Atlanta other than that there is an airport there.  I found that a trifle surprising.  Our French friends probably know more about it that some Cincinnatians, who can be rather insular at times.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/3/30/17173912/west-peachtree-street-midtown-development-alexan-coda-ascent

The area to which we are moving is exploding with construction cranes.  We're fortunately off to the side next to the park, so this is 3-4 blocks away in the main.  Unfortunately, we're also about a mile from the Georgia North Avenue Trade School.

The Dawgs play them in football each year, I can probably walk to the games and tickets are pretty easy to obtain.

WE stayed at the Marriott Residence Inn-Midtown for the 2012 Board meeting. Cool area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 11:03:41 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 08:39:43 AM

I added up some days, and today is January 98, 2018.

Gonna snow on the 99th.

Meanwhile, my boat sits in a storage building.

3 Years
9 Months
0 Days
14 Hours

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 11:09:42 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2018, 09:57:04 AM

Shorts and sandals weather here .

Send me some of that and I'll send you some water. Bitch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 11:10:28 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 11:03:41 AM

3 Years
9 Months
0 Days
14 Hours

3 years, 8 months, 21 days, 14 hours.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 11:35:43 AM

I get a nice profit sharing bonus if I work January 3rd, that Monday

and I'm 59 1/2 on the 8th

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 11:56:48 AM

10/4.

Work on January 3rd then. I'm not. That's my birthday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2018, 07:05:35 AM

It's January 99, 2018, and there is snow on the ground.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2018, 08:54:43 AM

Yeah, we got an "Atlanta snow" overnight, the kind that barely covers the grass and melts in a few minutes the next day.

The problem in Atlanta with driving is when they get freezing rain and sleet, not snow.  I've seen it where I could barely stand up on the parking lot without falling much less try and drive anywhere.

The snow rarely covers the pavement.

I've seen one ice storm like that in 28 years in Cincinnati.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on April 09, 2018, 09:16:09 AM

We had some in the air this morning but it didn't stick.  Upper 70s by the end of the week though, thank goodness.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 09, 2018, 09:26:25 AM

The ten day forecast is killin' me. 

For like a month now it has been promising awesome weather right around the corner, only to continuously get pushed back again and again. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2018, 09:28:19 AM

Looks like 70 is possible here on Friday, but then back into the 30's by Saturday night and no prediction for at or above average for at least 4 weeks.

This weather pattern sucks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2018, 09:46:10 AM

yup, even Lincoln, 2 hours south of me and generally 5-10 degrees warmer this time of year has crappy 10-day forecast

I have 4 tickets to the Huskers/Hawks baseball series Saturday and Sunday - going to visit my daughter

Forecast for Lincoln - Saturday high of 33, one inch of snow, 28mph wind out of the NW - Sunday high of 41, cloudy, wind only 20mph

may have to eat those tickets - wish I would have only purchased two for each game

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 08:07:21 AM

January 100, 2018. 26 degrees.

Looks like April may come tomorrow, for a few days, and then March starts over the weekend, with lows in the high 20's or lower 30's for the next 10 days or so. At least the highs in that period will get into the 40's and maybe some 50's.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 09:03:02 AM

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters


I don't see a realistic practicable or likely path to reducing even the upward trend very much, if any.  Of course, I do lean to being pessimistic about outcomes, but my life experience has forced me to be "realistic", something that was not helpful in my career.

The fact that I was right in my pessimism in my career was not appreciated either.

My nickname at work was "Doctor Doom" because I was pretty good at finding the flaws in various proposals (including my own).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 09:34:29 AM

Well, there is only so much "we" can do, but I do think little things matter.

It would help if the entire world was on board with some of this, even if a little.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 10:06:08 AM

When I say "we", I mean humanity as a whole.  Certainly individuals can do "something" but it's unrealistic to expect individual or even collective efforts are going to stop this thing, or curtail it by any measurable "degree".

It's going to happen, it's inevitable, and "we" probably should spend some time thinking about how to try and manage the worst of it.  

And yes, a HUGE effort might lop off a couple tenths.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2018, 10:40:34 AM

When winter finally ends, it will skip spring entirely and go straight to summer. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 10:42:29 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 10:06:08 AM

When I say "we", I mean humanity as a whole.  Certainly individuals can do "something" but it's unrealistic to expect individual or even collective efforts are going to stop this thing, or curtail it by any measurable "degree".

It's going to happen, it's inevitable, and "we" probably should spend some time thinking about how to try and manage the worst of it.  

And yes, a HUGE effort might lop off a couple tenths.

I don't hear or read much about this part. I hear and read plenty about the other stuff. Maybe I need to dig deeper.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2018, 10:54:56 AM

Yeah, it sure would suck if the planet were a few degrees warmer. 

We wouldn't be able to watch baseball games while dressed like we are out skiing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 11:12:01 AM

One can take a very broad brush view of the US and energy and then consider the other Big Players and their situations.  Take a few common facts:

1.  About a quarter of US CO2 generation is from transportation (burning oil in essence).  You can put a pretty good dent in that with fuel economy increases and more EVs over time.  
2.  The other 75% or so is in electricity generation, which is about a third natural gas and a third coal and 20% nuclear.  So, that is 2/3rds that is fossil fuel today, and cutting that while also allowing for more demand as the country grows is "challenging".  
3.  Wind and solar account for about 6% today to the grid, hydro is about 8% (and not growing).

You can DOUBLE wind and solar (which is less than 1%) over the next decade and barely keep up with growing demand, leaving that 2/3rds figure unchanged.  You have to TRIPLE it to make a small dent in coal and NG, and of course if cars go electric you have more demand from there as well.  Small dent in rate of increase, not turning it negative.

And tripling wind and solar are simply not going to happen in a decade.  That is beyond the wildest growth estimates out there.

So, now consider China, left to the side of Paris until 2030 when they claim they will cap CO2 emissions magically.  Up until then they can pretty much do whatever and India is the same.  Those two countries account for about half of the future CO2 generation globally over time, so whatever the US and Europe manage to do is diluted by China and India (and Brazil et al.) are not doing soon enough.

So, the realistic prospects of curbing CO2 emissions and getting them on a downward trajectory is many decades off and the damage to the climate done in the meantime is not reversible unless we're talking centuries at zero.

You can look in VAIN on the Internet for any quasi-realistic plan to cut CO2 emissions globally, I've looked.  There isn't one, but you do find the same gloom and doom I list here by the MIT folks and others.

Unless ITER generates (ha) a major breakthrough in the next decade, which I don't expect either, we're basically screwed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 11:53:28 AM

I guess we can still talk about the weather. Heh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 11:59:33 AM

This is why leaders get together and sign pointless agreements with great fanfare.  It creates (for some) and illusion that something important was done.  If any of them had a real tangible PLAN, they'd be implementing that plan instead of doing irrelevant paperwork.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 12:00:45 PM

I suppose it's a bit like Akron, Miami, and Ohio signing an agreement that they are going to get better in football.  

But there is no PLAN in the agreement, they just agree they are going to do it and report back, and Ohio doesn't have to start until 2030 anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 12:19:49 PM

I think it's clear that humans are warming the environment via CO2. The questions are as follows:

1) Is warming bad? 
2) Will warming have positive feedback loops such that mild warming causes significantly more warming [i.e. by releasing frozen gases trapped in Siberia thus accelerating CO2, etc]?
3) What is the economic impact of warming [assuming it's negative]?
4) What is the economic impact of breaking the world's dependence on a CO2-based energy market [assuming it's negative]?
5) Is it more important to focus on economic growth and on fixing the effects of warming later, or on fighting CO2 now and accepting the damage to economic growth by hamstringing energy production?

Right now everyone assumes that warming is not only bad, but that it's catastrophic. And that the economic effects of warming will be devastating and destabilize the entire political/economic balance of the world. So we need to DO SOMETHING RIGHT NOW!

But that's the one area that I don't see a lot of serious work on. Right now we argue over the IPCC reports and the climate sensitivity numbers, but economic prognostication is a HARD job and we don't really have a clear answer on what warming will really do. We just assume we should stop it due to the precautionary principle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 12:20:40 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 12:00:45 PM

I suppose it's a bit like Akron, Miami, and Ohio signing an agreement that they are going to get better in football.  

But there is no PLAN in the agreement, they just agree they are going to do it and report back, and Ohio doesn't have to start until 2030 anyway.

Sounds similar to the agreement that Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota signed in 1990.

Minnesota in 2030, eh?

~:P

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2018, 03:42:00 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 11:59:33 AM

This is why leaders get together and sign pointless agreements with great fanfare.  It creates (for some) and illusion that something important was done.  If any of them had a real tangible PLAN, they'd be implementing that plan instead of doing irrelevant paperwork.

the irrelevant paperwork has a way of becoming billions of dollars being pushed around to and from groups of folks
mostly tax dollars from folks like us to other folks that seem to need our money to do something irrelevant or nothing at all

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 03:48:01 PM

I remember working on a "study" back in the mid-1980's, for the extension of an expressway out of Crook County (IL) into Lake County (IL).

Then I worked on the same project again in the mid-1990's, doing a study. Since then, there have been 2 more studies, and now the State has just signed up yet another consultant to yet another study.

I'm still waiting for the extension to be built. I'm beginning to think I'll never see it.

But man, you can bet your ass it's been studied. You can also bet your ass a lot of consultants have been paid, and kickbacks been made.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2018, 04:22:48 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/z3pK6hX.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 04:28:09 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 03:48:01 PM

I remember working on a "study" back in the mid-1980's, for the extension of an expressway out of Crook County (IL) into Lake County (IL).

Then I worked on the same project again in the mid-1990's, doing a study. Since then, there have been 2 more studies, and now the State has just signed up yet another consultant to yet another study.

I'm still waiting for the extension to be built. I'm beginning to think I'll never see it.

But man, you can bet your ass it's been studied. You can also bet your ass a lot of consultants have been paid, and kickbacks been made.

I'm curious.  What route would this be?  US 41?   US 12?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 04:46:34 PM

The Elgin-O'Hare Expressway? Which at least when I lived there (up until the late 90's) didn't actually reach Elgin or O'Hare?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 05:28:43 PM

That's a good one, but that's not in Lake County.   I still don't think that Elgin Ohare route (390) gets anywhere near Elgin.  It does kind of make it to O'Hare now though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 05:32:20 PM

I bet it'll be completed before CA finishes high-speed rail ;-)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 06:43:09 PM

CA HSR is going to provide HS rail service between Fresno and Modesto in a few years. 

I have driven on a "freeway" in Chicago that was half a mile in length?

The Cincy streetcar is an object example in how the "developers" with connections make bank.

Then the city has to pay more millions to pull the rails up in a few years.

Stupid idea, but it's Cincy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 06:58:31 PM

Sounds like the genius streetcar idea Milwaukee is building.  Hey it's free money (feds).  Now locals can get free rides from bar to bar.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 07:13:34 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 06:43:09 PM

CA HSR is going to provide HS rail service between Fresno and Modesto in a few years.

Can't wait. Connect the armpit and the arsehole. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 08:34:19 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 04:28:09 PM

I'm curious.  What route would this be?  US 41?   US 12?

Route 53 from Lake-Cook to +/- Route 120 in Grayslake, and then a split from there to I-94 along the Route 120 corridor.

Route 12 is never gonna happen. Wisconsin did its part, and Illinois walked on its part.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 08:59:49 PM

I figured Route 12 would never go anywhere, because of Fox Lake, among other spots along the route.
I wouldn't have guessed 53.   I bet Arlington Racetrack would've loved it.   That would be like finishing off a second Tri-State, sort of like 495 in Boston.
There's some good periodicals out there about roads that have never been constructed.   I bet they went to school on all of those studies in order to write them. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 09:01:58 PM

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.trbimg.com%2Fimg-5918c2d8%2Fturbine%2Fct-met-route-53-map-20170514%2F1562%2F1562x879&hash=e732e443decc157d8c090ae899ceb1c3)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 04:35:33 PM

Atlanta was to have a north-south freeway back in the 80s, but it knifed through some subdivisions that put up a winning fight against it, so the terminal parts were built including a rather complex interchange downtown, but the middle section of about 15 miles was dropped.  Instead they widened the existing freeway from 3 lanes to 7, which of course is mostly chocked anyway now.

New freeways seem to attract more cars.  You wonder where they were before.  We probably can avoid the freeways most of the time at our new digs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2018, 04:45:39 PM

The same people who argue against this Route 53 proposal were the ones who argued against the I-355 component of the system to the South.

I-355 is wildly popular among commuters and heavily used as a bypass for truck traffic looking to avoid I-294 snarls - which it has helped with.

Cars sitting in traffic for two hours is no good for air quality.

Build the highways and get them through. They are going to be on the road no matter what. May as well be for less time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 05:38:43 PM

I was pondering the concept of building toll roads basically parallel but perhaps 10-20 miles offset from the current Interstate.  You could take your pick, and perhaps the toll road would carry only trucks, or only cars, and have speed limits of 85 mph.  All of the intercity freeways in France are tolls and they charge a lot to drive on them, but the alternative highways are generally pretty bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 06:15:01 PM

What would be "nice to see" is the outline of a plan, something starting with where we are today on CO2 emissions and where we plan to be in 2030, 2040, etc., how much it will cost, and how much it will lower global temperatures (according to the models).  I think that would be enlightening, even if it is only for the US (for now).

This gets more difficult as older nuclear power plants start to be taken off line of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2018, 06:16:22 PM

There is some of that concept in place already. California and Chicago come to mind - Chicago more so in the spirit of your idea.

You can drive straight through the City for free. If you want to bypass it on a choice of two Tollways, it's will cost you. It costs double if you don't have the electronic transponder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2018, 07:00:45 PM

California toll roads are so expensive that it's effectively a luxury tax. 

I'm doing alright, but I basically avoid the toll roads unless I *REALLY* need to get somewhere fast. I'm not going to pay $10/day each way to drive the toll roads to/from work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 04:58:34 AM

$10?  In France, every toll was 8-10 euros and they were every 40 miles or so.  We paid over 100 E on one day trip.

https://www.viamichelin.com/web/Routes/Route-Lyons-69000-Rhone-France-to-Paris-75000-Ville_de_Paris-France

Paris to Lyon is 4 and a half hours drive and 72 Euro, nearly $90.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 08:40:02 AM

You guys are advocating for more toll roads?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEeqCbEFIJw

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 08:51:33 AM

I was pondering the viability of toll roads separated from current busy interstates, perhaps truck only, or car only.  

I was thinking of I-75 between here and Atlanta for example.  It carries very heavy truck traffic.  Maybe build a two land divided truck highway separate from it and charge tolls.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on April 12, 2018, 09:06:59 AM

Where's the spots?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/11/solar-activity-crashes-the-sun-looks-like-a-cueball/ (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/11/solar-activity-crashes-the-sun-looks-like-a-cueball/)


I wonder if that is why the robins have not yet returned?   Woke up to a snow covered lawn again again this morning.  It's snowed in April before and I've seen robins hanging out in the snow in past years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2018, 12:26:43 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 06:15:01 PM

What would be "nice to see" is the outline of a plan, something starting with where we are today on CO2 emissions and where we plan to be in 2030, 2040, etc., how much it will cost, and how much it will lower global temperatures (according to the models).  I think that would be enlightening, even if it is only for the US (for now).

This gets more difficult as older nuclear power plants start to be taken off line of course.

hah, that would kill any spending - since it would very expensive and futile - so that would never happen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 01:55:09 PM

And that is my point obviously, we don't see any plans because there are none.  That's why politicians have meetings and sign papers instead of developing realistic plans.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2018, 02:17:55 PM

Ed Zachery

there have been plans, they are just not realistic

so they are buried and never spoken of again

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2018, 02:31:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 08:51:33 AM

I was pondering the viability of toll roads separated from current busy interstates, perhaps truck only, or car only.  

I was thinking of I-75 between here and Atlanta for example.  It carries very heavy truck traffic.  Maybe build a two land divided truck highway separate from it and charge tolls.

The traffic through any corridor like that would be much better if people would stay out of the damn left lane except when passing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 02:38:31 PM

In Ohio they used to have a lower speed limit for semis than they did for cars. 

Oh man, was that ever frustrating. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2018, 02:43:24 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 12, 2018, 02:31:45 PM

The traffic through any corridor like that would be much better if people would stay out of the damn left lane except when passing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPJmjJhHMn0

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 03:35:19 PM

On I-75, traffic is often so heavy you have to drive in the left lane except for the portions that are 6 laned.

The right lane is for trucks that slow way down on those hills.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 03:36:34 PM

A truck only divided 2 lane might be affordable with tolls and have passing lanes on hills.  It could have fewer exits and bypass Knoxville and whatnot and cut straight through.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 03:48:14 PM

It wouldn't make much of a difference if the Trucks are allowed to continue to use I-75 in order to avoid paying the tolls. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 04:06:20 PM

The idea is that I-75 would be local trucks only near cities.  The "truck route" would be faster and stand alone at a price that was sufficient to fund it with no 4 wheelers.  It could be built with heavy truck traffic in mind and include truck stops in the media every 100 miles or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 04:36:18 PM

I'm just not sure that the bean counters particularly care whether or not their truck drivers have to use the more congested I-75.

And the owner/operators are probably not going to have much interest in paying the tolls if there is a toll-free freeway available. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2018, 04:57:40 PM

When Illinois first put in the expensive tolls for trucks up near the Wisconsin border, they started to get off before the toll at US Route 41. That lasted about 6 months. They are all paying now. Time is money too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 05:01:45 PM

I'm sure that a percentage of the Trucks would use the toll road, but suspect that the goal is to inspire 100% of the Trucks to use the toll road. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 12, 2018, 05:51:35 PM

Wsj had piece this week on massive toll paying delinquency by truckers and individuals. 4, 5 figure balances due.  I know Illinois shames people quarterly

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 06:31:02 PM

We spend a lot of money widening these interstates, I'm suggesting an alternative for trucks to keep trucks off the regular highway.  If they drove on the regular highway they'd get pulled over.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 06:34:32 PM

Nice.

Now we are cooking with charcoal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2018, 06:43:18 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 04:36:18 PM

I'm just not sure that the bean counters particularly care whether or not their truck drivers have to use the more congested I-75.

The bean counters most certainly do care. Trucks only make money when they're moving. If the traffic is bad enough on I-75 that the trucks are in stop-and-go, they're using a lot of gas. And with the limits that the truck drivers have regarding rest and off time, sitting in traffic doesn't help them.
Trucks today have very sophisticated tracking systems. I know, I've worked with the companies that build them. They've got GPS, of course, but they're also tied into the onboard computers. They can monitor fuel usage, MPG, etc. Part of this is due to things like taxes, i.e. I believe they don't pay taxes on their fuel directly but they pay each state taxes on how much fuel is consumed when crossing that state. 
If you're sitting in a jam going 10 mph, you're costing that truck company a lot of money. If the traffic is bad enough, the trucking companies would rather pay a reasonable toll than lose money with their trucks sitting in traffic jams.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 06:45:45 PM

Taxes on Diesel are included in the pump price, same as on gasoline, and it's higher on Diesel, 25 cents a gallon versus 18.5 cents Federal only, plus 40-60 cents state.

Diesels are fascinating engines but I know they don't spark much interest among some.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 07:03:45 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 12, 2018, 06:43:18 PM

The bean counters most certainly do care. Trucks only make money when they're moving. If the traffic is bad enough on I-75 that the trucks are in stop-and-go, they're using a lot of gas. And with the limits that the truck drivers have regarding rest and off time, sitting in traffic doesn't help them.
Trucks today have very sophisticated tracking systems. I know, I've worked with the companies that build them. They've got GPS, of course, but they're also tied into the onboard computers. They can monitor fuel usage, MPG, etc. Part of this is due to things like taxes, i.e. I believe they don't pay taxes on their fuel directly but they pay each state taxes on how much fuel is consumed when crossing that state.
If you're sitting in a jam going 10 mph, you're costing that truck company a lot of money. If the traffic is bad enough, the trucking companies would rather pay a reasonable toll than lose money with their trucks sitting in traffic jams.

Well his plan was between Cincy and Atlanta, where the biggest city is Knoxville or maybe Chattanooga. Not much stop and go traffic unless you are actually in Cincinnati or Atlanta. Unless of course there is construction. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 12, 2018, 07:45:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 06:31:02 PM

We spend a lot of money widening these interstates, I'm suggesting an alternative for trucks to keep trucks off the regular highway.  If they drove on the regular highway they'd get pulled over.

I believe much of new jersey has a trucks only portion of 95.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2018, 07:46:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 06:45:45 PM

Taxes on Diesel are included in the pump price, same as on gasoline, and it's higher on Diesel, 25 cents a gallon versus 18.5 cents Federal only, plus 40-60 cents state.

Yeah, and maybe I have it backwards. Perhaps they pay for their state excise taxes but are able to claim rebates from the state they purchase from if they are paying the taxes to the other states they're driving through. Considering their tanks are hundreds of gallons, they have the ability to entirely pass through multiple states without buying gas. 
Either way I know it was important for them to do this as it related heavily to the taxes of exactly where they were and what state they were using the gas in. Hence, the bean counters were watching *this* very heavily, you know the bean counters will try to optimize anywhere else they can if it saves a dime.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2018, 05:27:15 AM

Years ago, I noticed a truck (semi) at a gas station and beside it was stacked 4 cases of oil.  I asked what was happening and the guy told me the engine used 48 quarts of oil for a change.

A fairly simple tactic would be to raise the gas tax 5 cents a gallon each January 1 for a few years.  That would replenish the Federal Highway Trust Fund and we could start to do some of this "infrastructure" stuff.

The I-75/71 bridge over the Ohio River here is well past its replacement date and there are not real plans to replace it, an estimate I saw was $2 billion for the new bridge.  The old one is almost scary.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 10:19:56 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2018, 05:27:15 AM

A fairly simple tactic would be to raise the gas tax 5 cents a gallon each January 1 for a few years.  That would replenish the Federal Highway Trust Fund and we could start to do some of this "infrastructure" stuff.

so, the freight companies pass that on to Walmart and everyone else - I'm fine with that
and then the railroads get fat as well - Warren Buffet is fine with that - and Devilfroggy!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2018, 11:02:17 AM

Every for profit company (and most not) pass on costs to the customer.  The cost can be anything, it gets passed on, with the usual markup.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 11:23:26 AM

wondering if the railroads are taxed on diesel fuel

farmers do not have to pass that cost onto their customers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 13, 2018, 12:34:04 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 12, 2018, 07:46:02 PM

Yeah, and maybe I have it backwards. Perhaps they pay for their state excise taxes but are able to claim rebates from the state they purchase from if they are paying the taxes to the other states they're driving through. Considering their tanks are hundreds of gallons, they have the ability to entirely pass through multiple states without buying gas.
Either way I know it was important for them to do this as it related heavily to the taxes of exactly where they were and what state they were using the gas in. Hence, the bean counters were watching *this* very heavily, you know the bean counters will try to optimize anywhere else they can if it saves a dime.

I may be wrong, but I am betting that the states are tracking wages being paid while the driver is in their state as opposed to fuel taxes which are paid at the pump. When a driver is being paid to drive thru a state, the state would like to tax that driver for the amount they were paid. This is done with other professions, I can see the states attempting to do this with truck drivers also.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 13, 2018, 01:26:03 PM

 I can see the states attempting to do this with truck drivers also.

I'd like to see Delaware or Rhode Island do this.   Delaware dude:  You traveled across the entire stretch of I-95 in our fair state.   You spent 28 minutes in our state.  Ok, you owe us.......one dollar and eighty two cents.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 02:31:16 PM

national speed limit back down to double nickels

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 13, 2018, 02:35:18 PM

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vanhalenstore.com%2Fshop%2Fgraphics%2F00000002%2FSHAG12-B_150x156.jpg&hash=17d1dd9d2759f87a0de5e1133951fd88)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 02:44:59 PM

heck, just make ALL interstate highways toll - put up the electronic sensors(cameras) and send anyone driving on the highway a bill for their miles of use.

That way, folks buying gasoline or diesel fuel for boats, dirt bikes,  lawn mowers, golf carts, generators, or anything else with an internal combustion  engine aren't paying for the highway system they might not be using.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 13, 2018, 03:08:38 PM

Sounds awesome.

Then we can put a tracking device on every car that fines us automatically for moving violations. 

Increase revenue, while cutting costs on police cars and traffic cop salaries. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 13, 2018, 03:24:59 PM

here's that WSJ article on toll delinquency.
Hopefully the paywall isn't up.

Toll Road Delinquents (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-toughest-toll-roads-in-america-1523007001)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2018, 03:26:41 PM

No

More 

Government

Interference

In

My

Pocket

Or

Bedroom

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2018, 08:04:40 AM

What else would gummint do if not that?

I certainly trust those Senators to understand what needs doing with Facebook. :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2018, 09:18:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2018, 08:04:40 AM

What else would gummint do if not that?

I certainly trust those Senators to understand what needs doing with Facebook. :57:

Get smaller? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2018, 10:09:18 AM

Welp, this weather pattern we've been stuck in since March 1 - the one with no end in sight - has taken its toll.

Met with a realtor yesterday. We will be listing after Labor Day. We give up.

Uncle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2018, 06:00:17 PM

"Lake" Michigan:

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .
 
REST OF TODAY...Northeast gales to 45 kt becoming east. Occasional storm force gusts to 50 kt are possible. Rain showers. Waves 14 to 18 ft occasionally to 23 ft. .
 
TONIGHT...East gales to 45 kt. A few storm force winds to 50 kt are possible early. Rain. Waves 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft.


So.. no launch today. Now scheduled for the 27th. We'll see.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2018, 10:54:33 AM

Freezing rain with snow coming later. This is super.

Hasn't stopped raining since Friday. Again, super. I guess I can be thankful I'm not in Minnesota, for today anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 15, 2018, 11:10:18 AM

My boss' place 'up north'  (West of Green Bay a bit) was buried.  He had his farmer's neighbor plow his country road for a good 1/2 mile to help him get out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 05:30:04 AM

This "spring" has made the allure of Atlanta more attractive to us (thought it's in the books anyway).

We have freezing stuff in the forecast again here.  

We have had a number of friends, like most of them, asking "Why Atlanta?" as if somehow it's the dark side of the moon or something.  I guess Florida is the typical move site for the "elderly"?  If we said Florida, I suppose folks would just nod.

Maybe Atlanta has a bad reputation or folks just don't know much about it past the airport?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2018, 08:16:49 AM

People scratched their heads when my parents said they were retiring to WY, twenty years ago.   People later visit, and suddenly understand the perspective a bit.  The world will do its own spinning, doesn't mean you have to live by some kind of script.    There's a lot people don't know, particularly human geography. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 08:23:26 AM

I liked Wyoming a lot until our host noted it would hit -40°F in the winter.

I have friends who retired to Sturgeon Bay, WI.  They are from MN originally and neither likes humidity and heat.  The wife professes to like the heat, and I can tolerate it for the most part.

Atlanta gets a bit of a break being 1,000 feet above sea level.  That is worth 4.5°F versus sea level "on average".  I was surprised how muggy Cincy is when I first came here from NC.  The heat just doesn't last as long and there are a few days in July and August that are pretty nice.  Atlanta in July and August is more consistently hot, but on average not much different in high T than Cincinnati. 

The winters here of course are a good deal worse than in ATL.  The ice storms in ATL can be very bad but won't really impact us now.  I think the only "ideal" weather in the US is in California or Hawaii.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 09:04:09 AM

It's nothing compared to our neighbors to the North, but there is about 2" on the ground this morning. This is pretty late in the season to be having snow that sticks on pavement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 09:22:10 AM

Yeah, I see some random flakes here this AM, and it's near freezing of course.

I've had it, I'm moving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 09:26:29 AM

CDawg, Man I wish I could pull that trigger right now, but I just can't.

3 years, 7 months, 15 days.

Mrs. 847 might actually go earlier, if we can work out the logistics. Being a Southern California girl, she's far more tired of this than I am, even though she's been here in the Midwest since 1976 or so.

Today is January 106th, 2018.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 09:27:24 AM

I have been retired now for about 5 years and a few.  I expected to be long gone by now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 09:45:56 AM

Why didn't you leave earlier? I've been wondering about that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 09:59:52 AM

I'd like to leave tonight or tomorrow

more snow expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:02:44 AM

This is bullshit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: HailHailMSP on April 16, 2018, 10:17:23 AM

The weekend grand total in the west suburbs of MPLS. 22”. There aren’t enough cuss words in the English language to describe how I feel. And this is a winter we made sure to take two winter vacations too.

My 8 year olds is supposed to start baseball this week. Yeah right. Once it melts, the next problem will be flooded fields

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:19:16 AM

Baseball... hahaha. The Sox and Twins say hello.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 10:20:44 AM

I blame Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin, and Bob Stoops

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 10:21:07 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:19:16 AM

Baseball... hahaha. The Sox and Twins say hello.

and the Royals

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:30:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 10:20:44 AM

I blame Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin, and Bob Stoops

And Al Gore. Don't forget that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2018, 10:38:23 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:19:16 AM

Baseball... hahaha. The Sox and Twins say hello.

They could've easily played that series at Miller Park this weekend (a la Angels/Indians awhile ago).  I suspect Dave St. Peter couldn't bear the humiliation.  Good time for them to head to P.R. this week.
1/2 my directs are not at work due to this snowfall. Green Bay had 22 inches, huge drifts, I have a colleague, she can't get out of her house, drifts are enormous.  Day cares closed.    Another guy's flight was canceled.   Somebody else was a gymnastics meet in Iowa, and they've stayed away til today.   I've got regulators coming this week (today), no word yet on their ETA.

The Examiners' flight was canceled.  They'll be here tomorrow.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 11:18:11 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 09:45:56 AM

Why didn't you leave earlier? I've been wondering about that.

Well, for one thing I got married and I really like the wife's house and where we live.  We traveled a lot so missed most of the bad weather and I suggested to her that was a decent plan.  Some other changes made her want to head out now and we found what appears to be an ideal location and condo, though we will still travel a good deal once we get settled and I see how my finances are doing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 11:22:30 AM

Most of the condos in our price range were in the 1,500 sq ft range and on the 35 floor or somesuch, great views but the decks they had were smallish and scary and windy.  We saw one 3 bedroom that was 2800 sq ft for a few dollars more but we didn't like the location or the HOA (which was nearly $1500 a month).  The selection available is pretty thin.

The unit we have bought (hopefully) has 3 bedrooms but is on 3 levels which we decided was OK as there is elevator access to each floor and each has its own outside deck which wraps around the unit.  The lower two bedrooms will be offices one with a sleeper sofa for any Badgers that show up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2018, 12:46:28 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on April 16, 2018, 08:16:49 AM

People scratched their heads when my parents said they were retiring to WY, twenty years ago.   People later visit, and suddenly understand the perspective a bit.  The world will do its own spinning, doesn't mean you have to live by some kind of script.    There's a lot people don't know, particularly human geography.

What I think a lot of people don't understand about the mountain west is that it actually is a LOT different weather-wise than the Midwest. People think "well if you're trying to avoid winter, why not go south?" But both the winter and the summers are different.
Now, I don't know WY that well, but I spend a lot of time in CO and have spent some time in UT. The winters are actually much more temperate than Chicago where I grew up. In CO you might get a foot of snow dumped on you, but it melts in a matter of days because they have 45 degree winter highs sprinkled in there. In Chicago it seemed like it was below freezing every minute from December through February. 
Then, the summers are better. It's high desert, so you don't have the humidity [nor the mosquitoes] that you get in the Midwest. So the summer is actually MUCH more pleasant than a Midwestern summer. 
I personally can handle cold but hate humidity. So for me, the Southeast is a no-go. A lot of people think I'm crazy to live in SoCal because it's hot in the summer, but the heat here is dry (without being the 110 degree Phoenix sort of hot), so it's really not that bad. 80 degrees with 95% RH is a LOT more unbearable to me than 95 degrees with 20% RH.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 12:52:22 PM

why I think of New Mexico

like Wyoming, without the snow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2018, 01:12:21 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 12:52:22 PM

why I think of New Mexico

like Wyoming, without the snow

I've only really been to New Mexico once, for only ~24 hours. It was in the middle of the summer and it was part of a short business trip with one day in Phoenix and one day in Albuquerque.
The difference between the two was stark. It's amazing what some elevation can do. They're both desert, but SO very different.
Phoenix was about 110 in the shade. The very next day Albuquerque was hot, maybe 98 or so, but those 12 degrees make a HUGE difference. Phoenix to me is unbearable. Albuquerque was nice. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 01:24:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 11:22:30 AM

Most of the condos in our price range were in the 1,500 sq ft range and on the 35 floor or somesuch, great views but the decks they had were smallish and scary and windy.  We saw one 3 bedroom that was 2800 sq ft for a few dollars more but we didn't like the location or the HOA (which was nearly $1500 a month).  The selection available is pretty thin.

The unit we have bought (hopefully) has 3 bedrooms but is on 3 levels which we decided was OK as there is elevator access to each floor and each has its own outside deck which wraps around the unit.  The lower two bedrooms will be offices one with a sleeper sofa for any Badgers that show up.

Book it!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2018, 01:33:59 PM

Wyoming (like any state with mountains) has a lot of microclimates.  Additionally, the average winter in Cheyenne or Casper isn't at all comparable to Cody, or Buffalo.  You have places which average 15 inches of snow per year all the way up to more than 200 inches (parts of Yellowstone).  I've hunted in places where the ground is bare, skies sunny clear, temps around 10, obscenely dry and calm, and a short ride away it is low visibility and all the snow you cover ever want.

Meanwhile Central WY (west of Casper, and east of Shoshoni), I feel like I'm might be driving on the moon

My folks are in a basin surrounded by the Rockies to the west and Bighorns to the east.  300 days of sun a year.  High desert, not much rain, and 'about' 40 inches of snow annually where they are located, but within 40 miles drive it would be 100 inches+ easily.    The winds (chinook) can be incredible, though that's true in a number of W-NW states.   That's when you have massive temperature movements,  60, 70, 80+ degree swings in as little as a couple hours.

It is very hard to generalize about weather in the mountain west states.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 01:54:44 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2018, 01:12:21 PM

Phoenix to me is unbearable. Albuquerque was nice.

this........

unfortunately, its a 12 hour drive from Albuquerque to Lincoln for the spring game

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2018, 08:49:45 AM

Woke up to a dusting of snow,now it's sticking & blowing.Jeebis Old Man Winter is definitely over staying his welcome

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2018, 09:46:56 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 01:54:44 PM

this........

unfortunately, its a 12 hour drive from Albuquerque to Lincoln for the spring game

There's this new technology out called airplanes. :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2018, 10:41:14 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2018, 09:46:56 AM

There's this new technology out called airplanes. :57:

I guess I'll never get a ride in CinciDawg's crop duster.Eh,he'd prolly have an ejection seat installed anyway

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 10:54:00 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2018, 09:46:56 AM

There's this new technology out called airplanes. :57:

did you catch 60 minutes last Sunday?
I've flown Allegiant Air

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 17, 2018, 11:00:36 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 01:54:44 PM

this........

unfortunately, its a 12 hour drive from Albuquerque to Lincoln for the spring game

I've been in Phoenix for 5 years now. For the 3 or 4 months of unbelievable hot (where you go for AC car to AC office) is worth it for the 8 to 9 months of unbelievably great weather.
And while I know it is a cliche to say it is a dry heat, but walking out to 110 here is better than 90 with 90% humidity in the midwest where it takes your breath away.
I was back in the Ohio/Indian area at Christmas, the cold and the snow is much worst than the heat here

Thought I quoted the post that said that Phoenix is unbearable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 11:16:53 AM

pretty sure 3 or 4 months of unbelievable hot can kill old fat guys from the midwest

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2018, 11:23:50 AM

My opinion on "60 Minutes" is about as low as it can be.  They often, if not always, contrive stories and exaggerate to find a story without balance.  It's not that hard to take some "issue" and report ONLY the salacious stuff about whatever to make it appear to be a real story.

The job they did on Audi's and "unintended acceleration" was so badly done that they clearly went after the story without any merit as in one shot they showed an apparent unintended acceleration and the brake lights were not lit.

Their "analysis" was blown apart by many outside experts who had no association with Audi.  They did something similar to the Bradley Fighting Vehicle back in the day, and I quit watching them.

Allegiant may well be awful, I don't know, but I do not trust 60 Minutes for one minute.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 17, 2018, 12:07:06 PM

60 minutes has disgraced itself so many times, I'm honestly surprised they've kept it going.   Heck, why they (any of the networks) still operate Nightly News in the same format is questionable. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2018, 01:29:14 PM

They do entertainment, not "news", or even current events, and few folks realize how slanted their shows are.  They do some hatchet job on some company (usually) and then the company refuses to comment for the story for fear of how the interview would be edited, and that is offered as support for their claims.

It's a classic example in my mind of starting with a conclusion and fitting everything to make that conclusion seem both sound and eyeball catching.  Imagine they actually did a story in a balanced fashion.  Most of the time the result would be confusing and less than clear whereas a one sided "expose'" is going to be gratifyingly clear cut to the audience.

I've listened to numerous NPR stories in some depth and they do a far far far better job of balancing matters and showing both sides IMHO because their intent is not to be salacious and get eyeballs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 02:19:52 PM

so, it's ALL fake news and it has been for most of my lifetime?

no wonder I usually only watch live sporting events

and Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives, of course

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2018, 02:28:53 PM

I'm sure they do some reasonable shows on more obvious things, but they can't start an investigation into a story and come out with nothing, they have to have a story, so they concoct one if none is really present.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2018, 02:35:36 PM

Cold front in Phoenix today - high of 78.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2018, 04:35:44 PM

I won't touch anything 60 minutes anymore. Haven't for at least 10 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 04:37:12 PM

youse guy really should tell me about this shit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2018, 10:47:39 AM

Quote from: Riffraft on April 17, 2018, 11:00:36 AM

I've been in Phoenix for 5 years now. For the 3 or 4 months of unbelievable hot (where you go for AC car to AC office) is worth it for the 8 to 9 months of unbelievably great weather.
And while I know it is a cliche to say it is a dry heat, but walking out to 110 here is better than 90 with 90% humidity in the midwest where it takes your breath away.
I was back in the Ohio/Indian area at Christmas, the cold and the snow is much worst than the heat here

Thought I quoted the post that said that Phoenix is unbearable.

Yeah, I think you were attempting to quote my post saying Phoenix is unbearable.

I've been in Phoenix and Vegas in the summer. It's not just me as a native Midwesterner talking about how I *think* it would feel. I've done it. It's brutal. I feel like I'm in a furnace when I walk out the door. When it's windy, that's just a convection oven. It's not a breeze coming at you, it's a blowtorch. 

Now I agree that it's more pleasant than 90 degrees with 90% RH in the Midwest. Especially since that Midwestern world is full of moisture and therefore mosquitoes. And that in the Midwest, due to the specific heat of water carrying that heat, you get *no* real advantage to the shade. It's just as hot and muggy in the shade. 

But "it's a dry heat" only goes so far. When you start hitting 110+ degrees, it don't matter what kind of heat it is. It just sucks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2018, 10:52:34 AM

another 3-4 inches of wet heavy humid snow here this morning

36 degrees currently

I know it's only the 18th, but if I'm lucky we could get some snow in May

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2018, 11:42:27 AM

This is bullshit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2018, 02:34:09 PM

While mid-April is by no means a pleasant time to have snow, we still have a long way to go before breaking any records for late-season snowfall. 

The latest snowfall on record? That would be May 28, 1947, when the city received 0.8 inches, according to the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls.

The latest "significant" snowfall -- one measuring 2 inches or more -- was May 9, 1945, when Sioux City received 4 inches. 

Here's hoping those records stick around for at least another year. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2018, 04:08:29 PM

I'm not optimistic at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2018, 06:13:23 PM

Tonite thru tomorrow 1"-2",according to the weather man middle of May in 2016 we had some snow.Had flats of flowers on sale 2/1 last week at the big box stores.They be dead if I bought them,even covered up in the garage

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 18, 2018, 06:20:33 PM

We had a 6 inch snow storm on May 10th 1990 in Milwaukee area.  Schools delayed as the plows were taken off city vehicles by then. Lots of tree damage.  I remember that vividly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2018, 07:02:13 PM

Looks like Cincy is finally getting Spring.  The ATL has had it for weeks of course.  Headed down Friday.

It will be interesting how the wife really adjusts to ATL summers.  We do have a pool right downstairs, which is nice.  She claims to like the heat but has never lived anywhere with this kind of heat, though Cincy can be bad.

A LOT of folks around Paris have no AC at all.  When they get a heat wave it gets critical in a hurry, and they get heat waves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 10:48:54 AM

spring may be ready to sprung here

10-day forecast showing highs in the 60s and overnight lows above freezing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 19, 2018, 11:25:40 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 18, 2018, 10:47:39 AM

Yeah, I think you were attempting to quote my post saying Phoenix is unbearable.

I've been in Phoenix and Vegas in the summer. It's not just me as a native Midwesterner talking about how I *think* it would feel. I've done it. It's brutal. I feel like I'm in a furnace when I walk out the door. When it's windy, that's just a convection oven. It's not a breeze coming at you, it's a blowtorch.

Now I agree that it's more pleasant than 90 degrees with 90% RH in the Midwest. Especially since that Midwestern world is full of moisture and therefore mosquitoes. And that in the Midwest, due to the specific heat of water carrying that heat, you get *no* real advantage to the shade. It's just as hot and muggy in the shade.

But "it's a dry heat" only goes so far. When you start hitting 110+ degrees, it don't matter what kind of heat it is. It just sucks.

The air in my oven is a dry heat, but I won't climb into it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 19, 2018, 11:28:37 AM

I remember a few years back, the Memorial Golf tournament that is usually player around Memorial Day in Columbus, they had 1-2" of snow on the course on the day before the tournament started (Wednesday). It had melted off early in the day, but it had the tournament officials nervous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 11:59:13 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 18, 2018, 10:47:39 AM

Yeah, I think you were attempting to quote my post saying Phoenix is unbearable.

I've been in Phoenix and Vegas in the summer. It's not just me as a native Midwesterner talking about how I *think* it would feel. I've done it. It's brutal. I feel like I'm in a furnace when I walk out the door. When it's windy, that's just a convection oven. It's not a breeze coming at you, it's a blowtorch.

Now I agree that it's more pleasant than 90 degrees with 90% RH in the Midwest. Especially since that Midwestern world is full of moisture and therefore mosquitoes. And that in the Midwest, due to the specific heat of water carrying that heat, you get *no* real advantage to the shade. It's just as hot and muggy in the shade.

But "it's a dry heat" only goes so far. When you start hitting 110+ degrees, it don't matter what kind of heat it is. It just sucks.

Idaho has the oven full of hair dryers summers, plus they get an insane amount of snow in the winter. 
Then there's Salt Lake, which has Idaho weather, only with high humidity piled on top of it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 12:34:33 PM

Never been to Salt Lake

closest I've been is probably the Grand Tetons

would not have guessed Salt Lake to be humid

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 01:14:07 PM

Just went to the Grand Tetons last summer, flying in and out of SL, UT. 

After a week in the Tetons, temps in the 110s with high humidity was really something else. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 02:08:59 PM

3 week trip by car with the family back in 1976

From Sewer City through Rapid City, Yellowstone, Butte, Portland, the redwoods, San Fran, LA, Grand Canyon, Durango CO, and back to Sewer City

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 02:25:41 PM

So you got to go back when people fed the bears from their car. 

Nice. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2018, 03:29:33 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 11:59:13 AM

Idaho has the oven full of hair dryers summers, plus they get an insane amount of snow in the winter.
Then there's Salt Lake, which has Idaho weather, only with high humidity piled on top of it.

Now, Idaho is one of the few states I've never been to, but I highly doubt it's anything like Vegas or Phoenix.
I know a lot of those areas of the inland northwest get hot. But when they say hot, they mean a few weeks in August when the highest daily temps are slightly topping 100. They don't mean two months of 110+. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 04:04:38 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 19, 2018, 03:29:33 PM

Now, Idaho is one of the few states I've never been to, but I highly doubt it's anything like Vegas or Phoenix.
I know a lot of those areas of the inland northwest get hot. But when they say hot, they mean a few weeks in August when the highest daily temps are slightly topping 100. They don't mean two months of 110+.

Yeah, obviously their summers aren't quite as brutal as in the SW. But they are still awfully unpleasant, sans the benefit of the mild winter. Gather thy snow tires. 
Not much of a Fall or Spring, either. It just kind of bounces from one extreme to the other. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 05:20:24 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 02:25:41 PM

So you got to go back when people fed the bears from their car.

Nice.

yup, I was 14.  Woody Hayes was my favorite coach
and the Cornhuskers were still good
gas was 49 cents a gallon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2018, 04:04:54 PM

Spring is here at last.

85 degrees here this afternoon, should melt the remaining snow in the ditches!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2018, 04:20:37 PM

Snow still on the ground?  It's practically May.  

Oh but yeah, sounds great, you should totally stay there and not move here.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2018, 05:02:49 PM

F'ing 47 degrees, windy and rainy in Kenosha right now. Needless to say, we're not there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 12, 2018, 06:01:30 PM

You lucky bastages got up to 47,send some of that our way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2018, 08:43:17 PM

I want some local warming.

Is that too much to ask, after a January that went 118 days?

F'ing Canadians can stick their Canadian air mass up their ass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on May 12, 2018, 08:48:54 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2018, 05:02:49 PM

F'ing 47 degrees, windy and rainy in Kenosha right now. Needless to say, we're not there.

85 here Badge.  Lake Michigan is one big ice box in the spring. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2018, 07:01:08 AM

It's 49 at home. It's not that close to the ice box.

Last weekend, it was 80 up there, until the wind shifted. That was that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2018, 09:40:12 AM

furnace running this morning at my house

supposed to warm up this afternoon for a round of golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2018, 09:43:26 AM

I just hope my wife and mom of 2 can enjoy a nice day and be outside, comfortably. Supposedly we will reach 67 today. I'm not holding my breath.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2018, 09:56:10 AM

high of 66 here

I'll be wearing shorts, but hopefully, I have more hair on my legs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2018, 12:21:49 PM

High of 91°F predicted, we're headed down stairs to the pool later. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 08:55:41 AM

Yup, upper 90s for the next 2 weeks here.  Morning lows around 70, that's when I run.

My i s c & a aggie wife enjoyed her mother's day lounging by the pool with the kids, whilst I toiled away making margaritas and cooking BBQ for her. It was a good day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 11:10:24 AM

The first few days of rain here since we moved.  I'm assembling a dresser the wife wanted and bought at this place called "Ikea" or something where everything comes in a box and needs assembly.

Boy what fun.  Cheap, she said.  The stuff at least fits properly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2018, 12:03:26 PM

That is your first exposure to Ikea?

They've been in this market for 20+ years. I try to avoid it. Everything needs to be assembled, and the stuff is HEAVY.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2018, 12:07:12 PM

My issue with Ikea is that you have to walk the entire damn store to get anything.

It's not the walking, mind you. I enjoy long hikes. It's the damn people who like to walk 0.5 mph three-wide in the narrow lane they have in the place. 

I don't think I'm ever going to step foot in an Ikea again. It's not worth it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on May 16, 2018, 12:19:27 PM

Yeah, I had an ex that bought a table there, probably 10+ years ago.  As you said, heavy.  It wasn't a big table, and since it was still in a box, it wasn't unwieldy, but it was tough to get up to her apartment.  Once up there, it wasn't even really a kit, IIRC a had to drill some of the holes.  It was basically a box of pre-cut shitty lumber.  I haven't been back since, and I'm going to guess that was 2006.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on May 16, 2018, 12:22:14 PM

I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 12:25:25 PM

Her idea was to sell most of our furniture and buy new stuff here that fit the condo.  I had some pretty expensive stuff that is now on EBTH, if anyone is interested in mahogany Heinkel Harris furniture going for a song right now.

So, we went moderately upscale for the living room and master bedroom, but for our offices she was fine with IKEA stuff, and I just finished assembly of a dresser that went behind the sofa in the living room (it isn't very visible).

She bought a desk from Modani (moderately better stuff) but it arrived sans hardware, so they are coming to pick it back up and refund the money and she says she'll manage with an IKEA desk.

I bought a nice entertainment center/TV stand from Wayfair but it was a disaster, so that will be IKEA now also.  That Wayfair thing looked really nice but was so badly fitted and had missing parts I had to junk it.  They did refund the $435.

We also bought a sleeper sofa for my office from Macy's and they botched the delivery so we cancelled and got one from - IKEA - and paid for assembly but they botched that part of the order so it's still in a box here.  I wish I had my old entertainment center here but it was mostly glass and I didn't think it would survive the move.

The furniture escapades have been very wearing.  The wrong stuff comes, or doesn't come at all, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2018, 12:34:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 12:25:25 PM

The furniture escapades have been very wearing.  The wrong stuff comes, or doesn't come at all, etc.

We just bought some tiered serving stands for the wedding reception, and the Monday before the reception (when we finally opened them to look at them) we saw that the three stands--which were all supposed to be rose gold--were all different colors. One was silver, and the other two were rose gold but not a matching shade. All were from the same vendor.
The vendor actually did us a solid and sent us advance replacements overnight shipping at no charge. I asked them to physically open them and confirm all three were the right color. They didn't do that, and of course one of the sets didn't match the other two (at least they were all rose gold).
Luckily since it was an advance replacement, I was able to mix and match and between the first and second shipment, was able to construct 3 stands that were all a matching shade out of the parts and ship the company back three full sets that didn't match.
But that was quite annoying.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 12:40:47 PM

I am starting to like going where I buy the actual thing off the showroom instead of this on line of fake show room concept.  I know it is more expensive.

Our refrigerator here had 3-4 broken shelves and whatnot, so I go on line to replace them and find the total was over $500, for replacement shelves.  Burfle that.

So, bought a new one from Costco.  I hope.  The fridge here is a 30" type, which is smaller than we had in Cincy, but is OK I hope.  NO room for the larger ones.  We brought a small "dorm fridge" that is in my office but not yet plugged in.  We're not decided what to do with that one.  The office is getting crowded.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 12:45:20 PM

i'm building a bar and cooking pit (outdoor kitchen?) currently... using untreated douglas fir 4x4's for the bones... I like doing these things, but i don't even attempt to perfection... some call it sloppy, i call it 'rustic'.  i like rustic.  

i'm doing something i've not seen before by using 6 parallel 4x4's for the bar surface... I'm going to run a router down them for joints- a kind of t&g if you would, then use an all thread rod every 2' and pull them tightly together, counter sinking the bolt/nut and finishing them off with a dowel.. should make for a substantial surface and something that wears nicely outside so long as it remains oiled after the planing and sanding.  i've considered an epoxy on the surface that appears as 1/4" of glass, which would fill any voids and offer a perfectly level surface- but then i'd have to go back and do all the surfaces like this... and that, folks, ain't gonna happen.  that stuff is $175/ga, and it would take 3 just for the bar surface- not to mention "dust free and dry environment for the 7~10 day cure time"... 

all this is to be done by june 9th, when there will be quite the party.... 

i wish like hell you could buy what i needed and bolt it together, but that ain't happening... it wouldn't last, even if it was available. inside? maybe... outside? nope... 

the lower counters will be concrete.  that stuff has worked out for me in the past, and knowing now what i didn't know then should turn out even better. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2018, 12:51:13 PM

Quote from: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 12:45:20 PM

i'm building a bar and cooking pit (outdoor kitchen?) currently... using untreated douglas fir 4x4's for the bones... I like doing these things, but i don't even attempt to perfection... some call it sloppy, i call it 'rustic'.  i like rustic. 

Looking forward to pics when you're done, Drew. Heck, "in process" pics would be fun too.
I'd like to do the same at my next house, for my grills. I have two Kamado grills, and would like to mount up a propane burner for sauces, chili, wok cooking, etc. Right now the grills are in individual stands and the propane burner sits on the concrete patio when I want to use it, which is a bit low for comfortable cooking.
But it will partly depend on whether it ends up being a purchase or another rental. I'll need to know whether it's something I want to build in or keep it modular for future moves. And then if it ends up being a built-in, because it'd be built for Kamado grills, would I eventually sell and replace the grills when selling the house? Not sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 01:16:34 PM

all this started about two years ago... i had a 50' wide 135' deep lot beside me i'd been trying to buy for years- but the owner wanted it to be attached to the lot behind me, so to provide the square footage required for septic of a 5 bedroom house (which no fool would build such a thing in my neighborhood).  she finally sold it to a client of my wife's, and i immediately offered him... there is a utility easement between my lot and the lots behind, isolating the lot in question- making it useless for anyone other than me or the people adjacent me on the other side of the lot.  Got it cheap ($10k) when the tax assessed value is $40k.  

clearing it cost a small fortune.  

grading it was tricky- too much for a power rake, too small a lot for heavy equipment... finally got it taken care of though... slapped a 30x28 steel building on it, that has a 12' steel awning running the 30' length of the back... on the corner of the awning covered section i'm building the bar, and just off of it (under what will have something akin to a pergola covering it) the cooking pit will be built.

right now i'm waiting for three things (i hate waiting)- one, the power company has to run their trench for the underground service that will go through the pass between the bar and the pit... no sense doing anything until that's done.. second, sodding... I put down 12 pallets over the weekend, and there are at least 7 more to go (selected bermuda due to the dog traffic- fairly tough stuff, and St. Augustine or zoisia isn't available right now- back to that june 9th thing again)... third: inspection.

at any rate, more in response to your comment @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , the pit will be L shaped- the side parallel to the bar will have 2 (maybe 3) 4x4's fashioned the same as the bar's, and for serving.  the lower counter between the server and the served will also be concrete (matching the bar)... the longer L will have a griddle (28" already landed still boxed) then the ecoque gen2, then a small stainless (3 burner) grill, then a sink, and then a propane burner for the massive ss pots used in low country boils or Brunswick stews.   in the apex of the L will be an island with the same surface as the bar and serving area, but used like a butchers block.  I plan on decorative/functional pebble ground with wooden walkways, which should allow for better drainage of the inevitable spills.  the ground is a sandy loam to begin with and swallows water quickly.

between this and the two head kegorator i just landed, the beverage cooler i've yet to select (got it down to three choices, though), a full size fridge the neighbor gave me and a 55" 4k i plan on connecting via information gleaned from the 'cut the chord' conversation- i should have, after all the work is completed- a nice hang out...

i was going to do a built in grill, griddle, ect, until i saw the price of those things.  i'm happy making it modular and able to be separated/swapped as needed- though tied together nicely. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2018, 01:19:20 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 16, 2018, 12:22:14 PM

I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?

Good question.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 01:19:48 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2018, 01:19:20 PM

Good question.

tradition, y'all. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 02:20:28 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 16, 2018, 12:22:14 PM

I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?

Why indeed?  Y'all are getting more and more B12 every day.
I approve. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 02:25:10 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 16, 2018, 12:22:14 PM

I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?

this happens when you let in the Big 12 folks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 02:25:40 PM

Quote from: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 02:20:28 PM

Why indeed?  Y'all are getting more and more B12 every day.
I approve. :)

hah!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 02:31:16 PM

Quote from: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 01:16:34 PM

all this started about two years ago... i had a 50' wide 135' deep lot beside me i'd been trying to buy for years- but the owner wanted it to be attached to the lot behind me, so to provide the square footage required for septic of a 5 bedroom house (which no fool would build such a thing in my neighborhood).  she finally sold it to a client of my wife's, and i immediately offered him... there is a utility easement between my lot and the lots behind, isolating the lot in question- making it useless for anyone other than me or the people adjacent me on the other side of the lot.  Got it cheap ($10k) when the tax assessed value is $40k.  

clearing it cost a small fortune.  

grading it was tricky- too much for a power rake, too small a lot for heavy equipment... finally got it taken care of though... slapped a 30x28 steel building on it, that has a 12' steel awning running the 30' length of the back... on the corner of the awning covered section i'm building the bar, and just off of it (under what will have something akin to a pergola covering it) the cooking pit will be built.

right now i'm waiting for three things (i hate waiting)- one, the power company has to run their trench for the underground service that will go through the pass between the bar and the pit... no sense doing anything until that's done.. second, sodding... I put down 12 pallets over the weekend, and there are at least 7 more to go (selected bermuda due to the dog traffic- fairly tough stuff, and St. Augustine or zoisia isn't available right now- back to that june 9th thing again)... third: inspection.

at any rate, more in response to your comment @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , the pit will be L shaped- the side parallel to the bar will have 2 (maybe 3) 4x4's fashioned the same as the bar's, and for serving.  the lower counter between the server and the served will also be concrete (matching the bar)... the longer L will have a griddle (28" already landed still boxed) then the ecoque gen2, then a small stainless (3 burner) grill, then a sink, and then a propane burner for the massive ss pots used in low country boils or Brunswick stews.   in the apex of the L will be an island with the same surface as the bar and serving area, but used like a butchers block.  I plan on decorative/functional pebble ground with wooden walkways, which should allow for better drainage of the inevitable spills.  the ground is a sandy loam to begin with and swallows water quickly.

between this and the two head kegorator i just landed, the beverage cooler i've yet to select (got it down to three choices, though), a full size fridge the neighbor gave me and a 55" 4k i plan on connecting via information gleaned from the 'cut the chord' conversation- i should have, after all the work is completed- a nice hang out...

i was going to do a built in grill, griddle, ect, until i saw the price of those things.  i'm happy making it modular and able to be separated/swapped as needed- though tied together nicely.

Heh, this reminds me-- I will say that my tendency to procrastinate has finally paid off (in a small way, but paid off nonetheless, darnit!).
In our backyard we have a nice pool and spa (the kind where the waterfall goes over the spa ledge into the pool), a built-in natural gas fire pit adjacent to the pool, and a pretty large 30x12 covered patio with a built-in outdoor kitchen including a propane grill and refrigerator.  We also have a dining set and a conversation set on the back patio.
We've lived in this house for 6 years, and I've always wanted to put in a TV on the back patio, but never wanted to run cable out there to do it.  I have power from the ceiling in the perfect place to do it, but just never got around to overcoming the hassle of getting the television source worked out.
And now, 6 years later, wireless TVs are so ubiquitous that the solution has presented itself.  I now have a 55" Samsung 4K smart wireless TV that I've attached to a wireless remote-controlled drop-down TV ceiling mount.  Samsung supports the Spectrum TV app and it also has WatchESPN and pretty much anything else I need.  
So yeah, take THAT, doers!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 02:33:59 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 02:25:10 PM

this happens when you let in the Big 12 folks

lulz. :72:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 03:12:08 PM

Good to see you're warming up to your future neighbor   :friends:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM

I admire all these do it yourself folks.  I prefer to write checks.

Unless it's stuff from IKEA.  I LOVE assembling those items.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 04:40:23 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 03:12:08 PM

Good to see you're warming up to your future neighbor   :friends:

Bite your tongue! :96:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 04:42:47 PM

I'm also a procrastinator

we're gonna be great together on the same block!

I'll be the guy that the HOA is after!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 04:47:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM

I admire all these do it yourself folks.  I prefer to write checks.

Unless it's stuff from IKEA.  I LOVE assembling those items.

I'm a big fan of DIY, but these days my priorities lie with the kids.  Getting them to their various activities takes up enough weekend time that I tend to hire out the more mundane stuff.
Still, I really do enjoy it, and so I focus on the really fun carpentry and larger building projects, and let the kids help so we get to spend quality time that way.  I leave the painting, tiling, hardwood installation, and other stuff I used to always do myself, to the pros.  I'm happy to write a check for that stuff, if it means I get to build custom built-in cabinetry in my home, or even better, create and install custom furniture in the Airstream!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 04:51:06 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 04:42:47 PM

I'm also a procrastinator

we're gonna be great together on the same block!

I'll be the guy that the HOA is after!

Just keep your car on its tires, off the street, your lawn mowed, your flowerbeds weeded, the 1/4 of your house that's allowed to not be masonry beige, your door solid hardwood, your shingles light brown, and your fence of natural cedar in good repair and stained slightly reddish, and you'll do quite well with my HOA.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 04:57:13 PM

hopefully, they won't mind if I simply live in your backyard

sounds nice like my brother's, he has the spa pool waterfall as well and pays the HOA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 05:27:34 PM

You should move in with HIM! :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 05:43:12 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 04:57:13 PM

hopefully, they won't mind if I simply live in your backyard

sounds nice like my brother's, he has the spa pool waterfall as well and pays the HOA

Live in the trailer like Rockford.You could take care of the 94's lawn weeds with your pitching wedge or spray some bud fat on them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 06:09:47 PM

Ain't no trailers allowed in my neighborhood.


I always wanted a house with a drive-in living room like Dan Tanna had, on the hit 70s television show "Vega$"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 08:16:48 PM

How about a drive in living room like Bluto,D-Day,Otter & Boon had at Delta House?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 08:23:40 PM

Quote from: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 06:09:47 PM

Ain't no trailers allowed in my neighborhood.

Where's the Airstream,did you turn it into a competition smoker?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 08:55:19 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 08:23:40 PM

Where's the Airstream,did you turn it into a competition smoker?

Ha!  No, it's in storage.
But a friend and neighbor wants to buy it from me and turn it into a food trailer.  He makes and sells his own beef jerky.  I guess folks would buy beef jerky out of an Airstream trailer...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 10:04:44 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 05:27:34 PM

You should move in with HIM! :)

that's my plan.  Wish they had basements in RR.
don't know why, but I feel like I could get bored or wear out my welcome after a few months or years, so.......
my plan also includes living in your backyard and then moving around with other good friends that have quality backyard environments such as Drew4UTk and possibly Badger once he's in Florida.
I prefer climates suitable for year round golf and sleeping outdoors.  The 401K money should last longer this way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 10:06:47 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 05:43:12 PM

Live in the trailer like Rockford.You could take care of the 94's lawn weeds with your pitching wedge or spray some bud fat on them

I wouldn't actually need to be inside the airstream, but the use of the awning would be nice.
recycled Bud Fat

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:13:23 AM

(https://ssl.c.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000K9Mea50aRko/s/600/600/tiny-houses.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2018, 10:16:58 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 10:04:44 AM

that's my plan.  Wish they had basements in RR.
don't know why, but I feel like I could get bored or wear out my welcome after a few months or years, so.......
my plan also includes living in your backyard and then moving around with other good friends that have quality backyard environments such as Drew4UTk and possibly Badger once he's in Florida.
I prefer climates suitable for year round golf and sleeping outdoors.  The 401K money should last longer this way.

Not with me around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 10:20:18 AM

yup, I'm going to eat and drink the good stuff

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 17, 2018, 10:27:19 AM

W.L. Weller... that's the good stuff.  the 15yo bottle is two years shy of being the youngest Pappy Van Winkle.  same stuff in the barrel, just bottled sooner.  I prefer it over the Pappy- it seems to not have the absurd smoke flavor pappy has... i could be easily convinced the 23yo pappy has liquid smoke added. not that it's bad, it's not- it's just right... just not something you'd expect to encounter in a drink.  the weller doesn't suffer from that... it's just as good as the pappy but in a different way.  pappy with lessor smoke.  good stuff. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2018, 10:27:30 AM

You'll need one of these too (the boat):

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gradywhite.com%2Fmedia%2F8557%2Fd51_0296-ret.jpg%3Fwidth%3D2000&hash=4fad1637d9e42d179c1b6dd8e2f1935c)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:33:03 AM

Quote from: Drew4UTk on May 17, 2018, 10:27:19 AM

W.L. Weller... that's the good stuff.  the 15yo bottle is two years shy of being the youngest Pappy Van Winkle.  same stuff in the barrel, just bottled sooner.  I prefer it over the Pappy- it seems to not have the absurd smoke flavor pappy has... i could be easily convinced the 23yo pappy has liquid smoke added. not that it's bad, it's not- it's just right... just not something you'd expect to encounter in a drink.  the weller doesn't suffer from that... it's just as good as the pappy but in a different way.  pappy with lessor smoke.  good stuff.

I'm an Islay single malt guy so I'm good with smoke, and I like pappy just fine but don't consider it to be anywhere near worth the price.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 17, 2018, 10:38:43 AM

off the sandbar:

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13775426_10154459726068755_6002520030239944342_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=84525808dadee4d3e10f3a204e072466&oe=5B8E87C2)

kinda cool watching storms pass just over the sound on the 'inner banks'... 

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13606880_10154420506773755_8166940883886026640_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=48e26fde0ee71f2abee3322feb30aa5e&oe=5B798FB6)

typical weekend... all locals, all fun.  we use the sandbars near the inlet to escape the tourists.  Funny posting this pic, reminded me of something that happened that day- two dudes got in a fight, which is something that has happened only this once in the 6~7 years i've been going out there... the funny part was the younger guys started swinging on the older guy screaming "you beat up my Pa- three years ago!!"... was laughing too hard to intervene.. 

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/935827_10151791210703755_374724309_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=6fa38f776213ae72017f08dbe2c80638&oe=5B96B1CC)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 11:13:16 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2018, 10:27:30 AM

You'll need one of these too (the boat):

boats are a huge drain on the 401K
but, you know this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 07:07:29 PM

Boats are a hole in the water that you throw money into.

My boat's unofficial name is "Hole in the Wallet."

But I wouldn't want it any other way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2018, 07:16:05 PM

I don't want to own a boat. 

I want more friends who own boats.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 09:09:55 PM

Yeah, I was the same way.  That works right up until you want to go out, and they don't.

Or you want to go out, and they've already got a boat full of girls-- that you wanted to hit on.

So I went and bought my own boat, so I could go out whenever I wanted, with whomever I wanted.  Including boats full of girls-- that I wanted to hit on.

And by the end of my second season with a boat, I was dating my i s c & a aggie wife.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:01:41 PM

"If it floats, flies or f#%&s, rent. Don't own." 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:09:49 PM

That's a good rule of thumb.

For poor people. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:15:02 PM

They give that advice to NFL rookies so that they don't burn through all of their cash by the time they are 30. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:33:03 PM

The saying is much older than that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:51:50 PM

Well the invention of the airplane does predate the NFL by a few years, so you might be right I suppose. :a035:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:58:48 PM

How much were those NFL players making in 1903?

Yeah...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 11:12:00 PM

The planes back then weren't nearly as high tech as they are today, and the dollar was a lot stronger.


(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d0/04/49/d00449a04be330b780f3e35f21547e30.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 18, 2018, 12:01:43 AM

Looks like a modern-day high school science project, ffs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2018, 07:30:00 AM

I rented a small boat in Hawaii a few years back, I guess it was a 15 footer, with two engines.  We took it out on the Pacific looking for whales.  The Pacific really isn't, even on a light day.  The wife was concerned about getting lost but it was only a 3 hour tour.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 12:52:14 PM

a 15 footer in the pacific?

not me

I've fished countless hours in 15 foot boats on rivers, ponds, and small lakes

not even large lakes or  Reservoirs  - which I refer to as BIG water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 03:44:10 PM

(https://s.hdnutwitter.com/photos/73/30/71/15568498/3/920x920.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2018, 03:58:17 PM

I know everyone wants me to care about the Pacific Ocean "garbage patch". 

And I do.

But I live near the ocean, and I never throw my trash in the ocean. It's not me, guys!

Maybe they should go after the people who are actually putting the trash in the ocean. I don't know how to fix the problem, personally. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2018, 04:26:22 PM

I'm ok with just raising general awareness of what our single-use packaging type of lifestyle is doing to our planet.  

But I completely agree if there's not some action proposed to follow, by people that are currently contributing to the problem, then it's going to end up being completely pointless.

What's the message, then?  Recycle those water bottles at higher rates?  If that's the message, then what's the action plan?  How do you get people to do it?  Put rebates on returns?   Something else?

Or is the message we should stop using this type of packaging altogether?  And if so, again what's actionable?  Are we messaging to manufacturers that they're going to have to end the practice?  To do this, do we place super-high taxes on all industries using single-use packaging, thus driving those products out of the market?

Right now I don't see much of a concerted effort to get a message that resonates, to the appropriate audience, with a plan that is reasonable and actionable.  Like so many other environmental concerns, I basically just continue to see, "Oh noes youse guys, humans are bad for the planet, stop doing what you're doing and be better humans!"

That's not targeted, it's not actionable, and you better be darn sure aware that it's not going to resonate with the people that are most important to creating change.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 04:31:20 PM

18 billion pounds a year?  No wonder the oceans are rising on the coasts

that doesn't take into account all the rocks that fall into the ocean ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2018, 04:32:52 PM

Melting polar ice caps, yo.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 04:44:53 PM

from this.............

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/17/611984631/banned-ozone-depleting-chemical-is-still-being-produced-somewhere-scientists-say (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/17/611984631/banned-ozone-depleting-chemical-is-still-being-produced-somewhere-scientists-say)

Someone appears to be producing a banned ozone-depleting chemical, interfering with the recovery of Earth's damaged ozone layer, according to a newly published study led by scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The illicit emissions are believed to be coming from somewhere in eastern Asia, but nothing else is known about the offender. It's a scientific whodunit — or rather, a who's-doing-it.

"I think it's the most surprising thing I've seen in my 27 years of making measurements of trace gases in the atmosphere," Stephen Montzka, the study's lead author, tells NPR.

In the study, published in Nature on Wednesday, the scientists say the atmospheric level of trichlorofluoromethane, or CFC-11, is still dropping overall. But it's not declining as quickly as it should be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 18, 2018, 05:09:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 04:31:20 PM

18 billion pounds a year?  No wonder the oceans are rising on the coasts

that doesn't take into account all the rocks that fall into the ocean ;)

Those coastal folk will finally have a chance to use their webbed hands and feet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2018, 07:49:24 AM

China does a lot of bad shit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 08:19:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 12:52:14 PM

a 15 footer in the pacific?

not me

I've fished countless hours in 15 foot boats on rivers, ponds, and small lakes

not even large lakes or  Reservoirs  - which I refer to as BIG water

It did feel dinky, but it was a relatively calm day and of course we stayed 3-4 miles out max.
The wife was not happy apparently but didn't say anything until later.
I pushed the throttles up to max and the ride got very rough to I stay at about 3/4 when getting somewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 08:21:01 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 18, 2018, 04:32:52 PM

Melting polar ice caps, yo.

Melting of the Arctic ice (or any floating ice) does not have much impact on ocean volume for obvious reasons.
It is glaciers or land based ice that does when it melts, along with warming of water, which is a large effect relatively also.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 08:23:56 AM

Plastic getting into oceans is obviously an issue and the source is not well understood, but some of it is airborne litter.

And folks often point to various biodegradable plastics as a solution but they have significant problems as well.  I used to work in the area and it is complex putting it mildly and the current options are not good.

Our management made this "promise", actually several of them, to shareholders that we'd have a biodegradable diaper by time X and of course none of that happened at all, but we spent tens of millions on various stupid projects to "try", all of it for PR.

I got into trouble pointing out some very obvious things about all of this.  My own boss told me to shut up about it to protect me.  There were things "we" simply could not say or write.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2018, 09:09:25 AM

You can say and write it now, eh?

I'd read that book, and I hate reading.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 09:21:12 AM

I came to realize that much of our R&D was to support our Public Relations efforts and nothing else.

And we spent a lot on R&D.  The company is in serious trouble today, but is so large it will take decades to really sink to K-Mart levels.  I spent my last 12 years on the sidelines, I couldn't take it any more.  I found a job "managing patents" that was still in R&D but I "worked" with the patent attorneys.  It was a complete sinecure, and I "worked" no more than an hour a week.

The hilarious thing is that when I left, they put TWO PEOPLE into that same job, they split my "role" and added another person to do it.  My boss was into Empire Building and was good at getting budget for more people, that was his sole motivation in life.  The folks who ran the budgets had no clue what we did but were told it was important, it wasn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 19, 2018, 12:35:34 PM

I'm actually pretty proud of some of the work that my very large computer corporation headquartered in the Austin metro area is doing regarding harvesting ocean-bound plastics and recycling into packaging.  It's a small dent but if if others follow suit it will start to have a major impact.  

The next step is harveting the actual floating plastics and that's obviously much more difficult, but they already have pilot programs in place that are successfully doing it. It's extremely expensive for now, but it won't always be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 01:01:52 PM

I saw something about buying some bracelet and some outfit would promise to remove one pound of plastic from the ocean somewhere.  The bracelet was $9.95 I think.

I then read something about how many pounds go into the oceans each year and did some quick math.

It was not even a scratch on the surface of what goes into the oceans, much less what is already there.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/05/plastics-facts-infographics-ocean-pollution/

18 BILLION pounds going into the oceans each year.  BILLION.  According to NatGeo.  I don't know if the figure is correct.

Global plastic production is said to be 335 million metric tons.  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282732/global-production-of-plastics-since-1950/

So, only a small percentage of that ends up in the oceans, 2.4% if I did the math right.  I'm not convinced it is as high as 2.4% though.

These numbers are impossible to comprehend.

The story on rubber tires is similarly mind boggling.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2018, 06:45:16 PM

buddy of mine was looking into building an extremely high temp furnace to burn tires

along with the proper filters for the EPA

never happened

I'm certain the dollars didn't make cents

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 19, 2018, 07:07:44 PM

When I first got oit of the corps and was going to school I worked at a tire recycler.  They shredded tires and shoved the scraps through a machine that tumbled them in nitrogen, making a dust of pure rubber that was sold to manufacturers... There was a cross belt magnet that extracted the metal and a wash that got most the nylon or Kevlar.  They had another machine that heated it in such a way it would turn into fibers (the rubber) and then adjoin the fibers to a mat of same material... They sold that as a ground cover for playgrounds and as antifatigue mats.  It could be dyed whatever color needed... 

They got paid by the gov to take the tires, and were paid by manufacturer's for the raw extracted rubber, then sold the metals and then those mats... They still managed to go bankrupt.  The owners sure didnt go bankrupt, just the business.  It was a great business model, bit ran by folks in it for the short game .

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2018, 07:19:49 PM

PR shouldn't matter, but the masses are idiots.  Didn't Sun Chips come out with a new, more biodegradable bag, but then had to switch back because the bag crumpled too loudly?  FFS  ~???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2018, 07:41:22 AM

Burning tires is inherently a bad idea.  Tires are full of sulfur and sulfur is bad to burn pollution-wise.

Humans, especially Americans, want convenience at a low cost.  That is why we have so much plastic in things despite a rather few smallish efforts to mitigate this, and most of that is PR.  We go to a Whole Foods near us because the wife likes it and all I see there is a Kroger with better PR.

I suppose I'm pretty jaded about corporations claiming to "do good".  I see it as PR meant to enhance sales and attract millenials who want to feel good about themselves while not sacrificing any convenience or functionality.

And of course ANY plastic that ends up in landfill is not going to degrade.  ANY anything in a landfill is going to sit there entombed with very little degradation, and what happens is anaerobic and causes problems (methane).  Just view plastic as oil that was not burned for energy and so didn't contribute to CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 20, 2018, 07:59:36 PM

Quote from: Drew4UTk on May 17, 2018, 10:27:19 AM

W.L. Weller... that's the good stuff.  the 15yo bottle is two years shy of being the youngest Pappy Van Winkle.  same stuff in the barrel, just bottled sooner.  I prefer it over the Pappy- it seems to not have the absurd smoke flavor pappy has... i could be easily convinced the 23yo pappy has liquid smoke added. not that it's bad, it's not- it's just right... just not something you'd expect to encounter in a drink.  the weller doesn't suffer from that... it's just as good as the pappy but in a different way.  pappy with lessor smoke.  good stuff.

Two tears ago at a christmas party some family/friends and their in-laws(bourbon Snobs) were filling me in on the strange Pappy/Weller saga.Exhorting the nectars virtues -  there was an impressive assortment of fine spirits already on hand but no Pappy or Weller.I heard Weller can be had in Texas for a reasonable price but seemingly not above the Mason/Dixon.But I'd never no know as I've not seen it  and am not connected.But like so many of the gotta have craft beers it seems a bit of a let down after obtaining.Reminds me of the story on how those hi falutin' French & Napa Valley Vineyards got smoked by Two-Buck Chucks in that taste test twenty years back

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 20, 2018, 08:12:37 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 11:12:00 PM

The planes back then weren't nearly as high tech as they are today, and the dollar was a lot stronger.


(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d0/04/49/d00449a04be330b780f3e35f21547e30.jpg)

Wonder what that guy was thinking 1st time up - "Ah,what the hell does this lever do again ?"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2018, 08:28:33 PM

he wasn't thonking, "boy, the stats on ultra-lights are horrible - hope I survive this trip"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2018, 09:38:41 PM

Duane Arnold Energy Center in Palo, Iowa’s sole nuclear power plant, will shut down in late 2020, its owner announced Friday — five years sooner than the current power purchase agreement between NextEra Energy Resources and Alliant Energy.

That agreement, which requires approval from the Iowa Utilities Board, means the plant is expected to cease commercial operations in 2020, NextEra said.

Alliant’s agreement with NextEra originally was set to run until 2025.

“The eventual closing of the Duane Arnold Energy Center is a difficult decision because of the approximately 500 highly skilled men and women who consistently have made it one of the top-performing nuclear facilities in the county,” NextEra’s President and Chief Executive Officer Armando Pimentel said in the release.

Gradual drawdown
Duane Arnold, which first began producing power in 1975, is located about nine miles northwest of Cedar Rapids and is one of the larger employers in Linn County.

Florida-based NextEra said Friday it expects “a gradual reduction in staffing” at Duane Arnold over the next seven years.

The plant currently employs about 540 people, NextEra spokesman Peter Robbins said. NextEra estimates that when the plant shuts down and stops generating power in late 2020, it will need only about 300 employees.


Cheaper sources of energy
Officials for both Alliant and NextEra said the existence of cheaper forms of energy prompted the decision to close Duane Arnold.

Alliant spokesman Justin Foss said the market value of those other sources — primarily renewables such as Iowa’s growing wind portfolio — have dropped below the cost of nuclear generation.

“In our review of the cost for the energy that comes from that facility versus what you can buy it for and generate it for out in the market right now, it will save customers money by not getting it from that facility,” Foss told The Gazette Friday.

As part of the new agreement, Alliant will make a $110 million buyout payment to NextEra in September 2020. That payment, the companies said, will cover the costs of shortening the power purchase agreement by five years.

Alliant said it had planned to submit an application to the Iowa Utilities Board on Friday to receive approval for the buyout. The companies said the move should save Alliant’s customers about $300 million over 21 years, starting in 2020.

Savings for Alliant Energy customers will be reflected in the fuel cost portion of customers’ bills — representing about a three percent monthly savings, or about $42 a year — for residential customers starting in 2021, Foss said. Commercial and industrial customers will see a roughly 2.3 percent fuel cost savings.

NextEra owns a 70 percent stake in Duane Arnold, and 70 percent of the electricity produced there — about 430 megawatts — goes to Alliant. Des Moines-based Central Iowa Power Cooperative, or CIPCO, and Humboldt-based Corn Belt Power Cooperative own 20 percent and 10 percent stakes, respectively.

Under the new agreements, Alliant will purchase about 340 megawatts of energy from four existing NextEra-owned Iowa wind facilities.

“Partially replacing energy from Duane Arnold with NextEra’s additional wind investments in Iowa will bring significant economic benefits to our customers,” Patricia Kampling, chairwoman and chief executive officer of Alliant Energy, said in a Friday news release.

CIPCO, which also has an office in Cedar Rapids, said Friday it has “guarded optimism” about the shutdown of Duane Arnold. The cooperative said 35 percent of its energy portfolio currently comes from the nuclear plant.

“We’re trying to understand how we manage this in the short-term, but we believe long-term this will be a net benefit for us,” CIPCO Chief Executive Officer Bill Cherrier said to The Gazette.

Cherrier said CIPCO believes it will be able to find cheaper sources of energy through wind and other renewable sources.

NextEra also said Friday it expects to invest about $650 million in existing and new renewable generation facilities across Iowa by the end of 2020. About $250 million of that, Robbins said, will come from “re-powering,” or upgrading” NextEra’s existing wind turbines in Iowa.

WHAT HAPPENS AT THE PLANT?

After Duane Arnold shuts down and stops energy production in late 2020, the plant will have to go through a decommissioning process.

That process will include moving fuel rods from the plant’s reactor to a spent fuel pool, where it will cool for four to five years, Robbins explained.

Once the rods are cool, they will be moved to dry storage at Duane Arnold.

It was not clear Friday if or when the nuclear plant site could be redeveloped, given the length of the decommissioning process. NextEra did say it is “evaluating redevelopment opportunities” there, including building new solar energy, battery storage or natural gas facilities.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2018, 04:38:38 PM

The ocean plastic is mostly Asian fishing gear apparently.  Little is from the US.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2018, 06:46:11 PM

not straws from the San Fran bay area?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 30, 2018, 06:56:17 PM

I saw that in a Nat Geo article a while back. Cited a percentage just under 50% from fishing gear. They made a disclaimer that it's an extrapolation from limited surveys. I was still surprised as far as expectations go. They inferred that the Japanese tsunami of 2011 rolled a meaningful fraction all on its own.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2018, 09:11:07 AM

My French cousins have been complaining about the weather.  The wife gets streaming classical music on a French "station" and they have 5 minutes of news on the hour.  Much of the country is seeing high Ts of 40°C or more.

And homes there are rarely air conditioned, at least in the northern half anyway.

The summer here has been excellent, for me and the wife.  Humidity has been quite low usually and the highest high has been about 92°F, with 50% RH, which is not bad in the shade.

We've had maybe two days where I really suffered being outside for more than 3 minutes.  My wife's best friend is flying up from Brazil in early Sept and my step son and daughter are also visiting from SF and France, so it should be a busy time.  The weather here about then can be still hot of course but also can be in the 80s and pleasant, blue sky, etc.

The wife wants to go to Brazil in November and I just remarked "Well that is football season of course.".

February would be better for me I think.

At least we have a nonstop from here now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2018, 09:18:20 AM

I may have mentioned this before, but I have looked in vain for a "plan" to reduce CO2 emissions that has at least a modicum of detail, like:

1.  How much we must reduce emissions to reach a climate goal of X (using a composite model).
2.  How that can be done by shutting down Y fossil fuel sources and replacing them with whatever.
3.  This would cost $Z over however many years.

I suspect the reason I can't find such an outline is obvious.

What I find instead is glowing articles about how wind and solar have expanded by 194% over the past 5 years, which omits a rather important detail.  And then articles about how Germany has been going backwards despite glowing articles that they produced more power by solar than needed one day whenever.

The attitude by most French folks about nuclear is they don't want to think about it right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 05, 2018, 01:41:48 PM

Wow sounds like we've had more 90 deg days here in N.E.Ohio by the lake

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2018, 02:38:21 PM

It has been hotter and more humid in Cincy than here nearly every time I checked but one.

It's 91°F here and 53% RH and sunny.  We were headed to the pool but the wife I think took a nap.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2018, 03:56:00 PM

In June, the Iowa Utilities Board verified that MidAmerican Energy Company delivered more than half – 50.8% – of our electricity from renewable sources in 2017. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2018, 07:13:57 PM

Iowa still gets over half its electricity from coal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2018, 09:30:24 AM

yup, converting the coal plants to natural gas now

assuming this report is the portion that MidAmerican Energy Company delivers to Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 10, 2018, 09:42:32 AM

The new economist magazine focuses on climate change.... if anyone is interested...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 12:23:15 PM

Some pics from in front of my house last Thursday of the Holy Fire. Named because it started in "Holy Jim Canyon". There a nice hiking trail back there that takes you to Holy Jim Falls, and then with an offshoot to get to Santiago Peak, the highest elevation point in Orange County.

Apparently the fire was started by a resident back there. There are a couple of historic cabins along the beginning of the hiking trail. Supposedly a resident was upset with a neighbor, and started a fire. Sadly, in addition to all those historic cabins being burned, apparently due to it being deemed a fire/flood risk there can be no reconstruction. So some jacka$$ is now responsible for putting all his neighbors out of home.

Thursday was the worst day of it near me. We don't live close enough to the wilderness that we were ever in real danger, but on Thursday the wind shifted and blew the smoke our direction. After Thursday, the wind shifted back to the typical direction (coming onshore from the West) and pushed the fire back towards the East.

The fire is now only 59% contained, and threatens housing in Riverside County in the Lake Elsinore area. 

Looking East.

<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/dWe5Lp/IMAG1339_20180814_091254716.jpg) (https://ibb.co/dWe5Lp)<br />

Looking West.

<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/h4OAmU/IMAG1340_20180814_0912566.jpg) (https://ibb.co/h4OAmU)<br />

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 14, 2018, 12:25:01 PM

has that neighbor been arrested yet?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 12:33:31 PM

Quote from: Entropy on August 14, 2018, 12:25:01 PM

has that neighbor been arrested yet?

The arsonist has been arrested, yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2018, 12:46:59 PM

I'd burn him at the stake

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2018, 12:47:31 PM

I assume "Holy Jim" was a man of the cloth?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 01:26:08 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 14, 2018, 12:47:31 PM

I assume "Holy Jim" was a man of the cloth?

Nah... Revisionist history. His original nickname was "Cussin' Jim". (http://www.orangecoast.com/stuff-we-love/q-holy-jim-holy-jim-canyon-fame/) 

Quote

In 1888, decidedly unsaintly Union veteran James Smith bought land in a remote canyon between Santiago Peak and Trabuco Creek.(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.orangecoast.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F17%2F2017%2F02%2Fholy_jim_canyon-106x300.jpg&hash=e4d7c6d4c6b0a03def2621a8d2359ac1) (http://cdn.orangecoast.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2017/02/holy_jim_canyon.jpg) He lived there with his wife, Hat, and raised bees. Although reasonably even-tempered, Smith swore frequently, loudly, long-windedly, creatively, and without regard for the company he was in. Historian Jim Sleeper wrote that Smith could “cuss the devil into a bottle and screw on the cap.” Smith usually sported a hat with an upturned brim, a walrus mustache, a jacket with a big plug of tobacco in the pocket, and no shirt. He earned the nicknames “Greasy Jim” and “Cussin’ Jim.” In 1900, government cartographers named the canyon for its best-known resident, but some bureaucrat in Washington undoubtedly changed “Cussin’ ” to “Holy.” About eight years later, Smith retired to Santa Ana. As an old man, he’d get lost downtown and sheriff’s deputies would give him a lift. Jim swore all the way home.

The way I've read it, apparently even the use of the term "Cussin'" was considered cussing back in those days, so they changed it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 14, 2018, 02:29:28 PM

great find on that story... lol

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2018, 03:31:50 PM

some bureaucrat in Washington was screwing things up since 1900

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 05:13:55 PM

Quote from: Entropy on August 14, 2018, 02:29:28 PM

great find on that story... lol

Yeah, I was already familiar with the story... I've done that hike a few times to the falls. It's a great little hike with kids, because it's only about 1.5 miles out, 1.5 back, without huge elevation gain. 
I think it's probably now going to be closed--maybe for years--while the canyon recovers.
So if I find that arsonist, I'm gonna go "holy" on him lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2018, 05:51:18 PM

I heard on the radio that he stands to be punished with life in prison.


It would be better to burn him, if found guilty.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2018, 09:41:01 PM

I saw a Chevy Tahoe in Lake Tahoe today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 15, 2018, 08:43:34 AM

Holy/Cussin Jim sounds like a Browns Fan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 15, 2018, 08:44:40 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2018, 05:51:18 PM

I heard on the radio that he stands to be punished with life in prison.


It would be better to burn him, if found guilty.

Give him a fair trial followed by a 1st class hanging

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 09:12:22 AM

lethal injection seemed to work in Nebraska yesterday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 15, 2018, 11:37:20 AM

Good Point,pun intended

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 11:42:19 AM

some folks in my office yesterday were watching the live stream of the execution........

video simply showed the double doors of the execution room - nothing more

fascinating!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 01:52:06 PM

Scientists have found a rapid way of producing magnesite, a mineral which stores carbon dioxide. If this can be developed to an industrial scale, it opens the door to removing CO2 from the atmosphere for long-term storage, thus countering the global warming effect of atmospheric CO2. This work is presented at the Goldschmidt conference in Boston.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-scientists-mineral-co2-atmosphere.html#jCp

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2018, 02:40:47 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 01:52:06 PM

Scientists have found a rapid way of producing magnesite, a mineral which stores carbon dioxide. If this can be developed to an industrial scale, it opens the door to removing CO2 from the atmosphere for long-term storage, thus countering the global warming effect of atmospheric CO2. This work is presented at the Goldschmidt conference in Boston.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-scientists-mineral-co2-atmosphere.html#jCp

Interesting. I have long been curious who'd outpace who, the material scientists or the biochemists trying to take the most common protein in the world (Ribulose-1,5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase) and let engineered evolution do the work for them. Both sides have some serious obstacles. With this "magnesite" for example, I can't imagine it'll be easy or obvious what to do with that mass of it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 15, 2018, 10:14:23 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2018, 02:40:47 PM

Interesting. I have long been curious who'd outpace who, the material scientists or the biochemists trying to take the most common protein in the world (Ribulose-1,5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase) and let engineered evolution do the work for them. Both sides have some serious obstacles. With this "magnesite" for example, I can't imagine it'll be easy or obvious what to do with that mass of it.

from Wikipedia....
Uses[edit (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Magnesite&action=edit&section=3)]
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5e/Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg/170px-Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg)
 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg)
Dyed and polished magnesite beads
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg/220px-Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg)
 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg)
Magnesite of Salem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salem,_Tamil_Nadu)
Similar to the production of lime, magnesite can be burned in the presence of charcoal to produce MgO (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MgO), which, in the form of a mineral, is known as periclase (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periclase). Large quantities of magnesite are burnt to make magnesium oxide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesium_oxide): an important refractory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refractory) material used as a lining in blast furnaces (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blast_furnace), kilns (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiln) and incinerators (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incinerators). Calcination temperatures determine the reactivity of resulting oxide products and the classifications of light burnt and dead burnt refer to the surface area and resulting reactivity of the product, typically as determined by an industry metric of the iodine number. 'Light burnt' product generally refers to calcination commencing at 450 °C and proceeding to an upper limit of 900 °C - which results in good surface area and reactivity. Above 900 °C, the material loses its reactive crystalline structure and reverts to the chemically inert 'dead-burnt' product- which is preferred for use in refractory materials such as furnace linings.
Magnesite can also be used as a binder in flooring material (magnesite screed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesite_screed)).^{[15] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesite#cite_note-15)} Furthermore, it is being used as a catalyst and filler in the production of synthetic rubber (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_rubber) and in the preparation of magnesium chemicals and fertilizers.
In fire assay, magnesite cupels can be used for cupellation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cupellation) as the magnesite cupel will resist the high temperatures involved.
Magnesite can be cut, drilled, and polished to form beads that are used in jewelry-making. Magnesite beads can be dyed into a broad spectrum of bold colors, including a light blue color that mimics the appearance of turquoise (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turquoise).
Research is proceeding to evaluate the practicality of sequestering the greenhouse gas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas) carbon dioxide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) in magnesite on a large scale^{[16] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesite#cite_note-16)}.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on August 15, 2018, 11:03:32 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 09:12:22 AM

lethal injection seemed to work in Nebraska yesterday

I was a freshman when they last executed a man in NE.  Otey.  Forget his first name.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 10:39:49 AM

The problem with pulling CO2 out of the air is interestingly enough one of entropy (and enthalpy of course).  You have an "impurity" that is about 400 ppm in a something and you want some portion of that impurity.  Just on general principles, that is going to take a lot of energy, somehow.

You can do it of course with caustic, like KOH, but it takes energy to generate KOH.  And then you have K2CO3 to dispose of in some protected environment.  And even this process takes a while depending on surface area, so you have kinetics to ponder as well.

You can of course cool the air down to the temperature of dry ice, but that takes energy.  Then you have to manage the dry ice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 01:23:53 PM

No doubt. And on the RuBisCO side of things, there are similar challenges, engineering the enzyme as more of a carboxylase (less of an oxygenase) - both an entropy and enthalpy challenge. And then there's a matter of yield (also a surface area challenge, whether the chosen vehicle is a leaf or unicellular). 
And then finally there's the matter of product stability, which for RuBisCO strategies is probably the tallest obstacle. All photosynthesizers, for example, are professional fixers of carbon. But they also die in relatively short order and are consumed by organisms that engage cellular respiration, and that permits molar equivalents of CO2 to return to the atmosphere. That's why we say these plants are part of the carbon cycle. Which plants leave the carbon cycle? Well so far it's only been the rare ones that fall into stagnant swamps and ultimately find their chemical makeup held in tact as the earth changes over geological time and they find themselves under countable layers of stone. 
That detail has always made the RuBisCO strategy seem farfetched to me. But even then, engineering the enzyme to be a better carboxylase could have a lot to say about feeding humans in a world where climate change increasingly limits crop yields.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 02:10:02 PM

And we have these things called "plants" which already "fix" CO2 as biomass.  All we need to do is plant these plants and then bury the biomass where it will not degrade.

I bet no artificial system is nearly as efficient in use of energy and space.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 02:11:03 PM

When I look at a tree, I marvel at how most of it is water and a minor component extracted from the air.  A very minor component (400 ppm or so).  And the tree manages to turn that into stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 02:27:38 PM

Yeah, I think another common misconception about trees is that they get that mass from the dirt/soil. Fascinating how they don't. 

To me, an even more fascinating thing about trees is that, no matter the thin diameter of their xylem and what you'd think of the power of capillary action, those tubes are too tall to maintain a continuous water column in trees of even moderate height. The water in those tubes actually experiences negative pressure. How? Transpiration is part of it, but the real magic has to do with the micro-sized pores on the leaves through which water vapor can escape. Those are small enough that water surface tension can hold a constant barrier. If they were so large that surface tension couldn't maintain the barrier, the negatively pressurized water column would boil right out of those trees.
Sometimes that actually happens. Maybe you've gone on a hike during an extreme drought and noticed that an empty forest is making strange, loud, cracking, echoing noises. That can be due to cavitation in these tubes. And, if you were able to find the corresponding trees, mark them, and return in a matter of time, you'd notice that either the entire tree died, or at least a segment of its trunk (and relevant branches) did.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 02:31:05 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 02:10:02 PM

And we have these things called "plants" which already "fix" CO2 as biomass.  All we need to do is plant these plants and then bury the biomass where it will not degrade.

I bet no artificial system is nearly as efficient in use of energy and space.

Our eyes would probably bug if we saw a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the size of the hole it would take to bury enough of them in.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 03:27:32 PM

That could be, but whatever is used to extract CO2 from the air has to be stored somewhere.  Trees contain quite a bit of carbon, basically C6H12O6 of course, or one carbon atom for each water molecule (hence "carbohydrate"), or 12 grams of carbon plus 18 grams of water.  Yes, there is lignin, but it is higher in carbon.

So, a dead tree is a rather efficient repository of carbon on a mass basis.  What else out there is 6/15ths carbon?  Coal obviously, and diamond, but diamond or graphite are not realistic options.

I'll got with buried trees.  Now the calculation on how much fuel would be needed to transport that many gigatons of dead trees to salt mines or the like is probably imposing.

In a sanitary landfill can can find hot dog buns intact that are 20+ years old.  We could landfill the lot.

Or make plastic out of trees which won't biodegrade.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2018, 03:33:03 PM

always heard about the hot dogs themselves being preserved, but not the buns

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 03:47:17 PM

There is, or was, a "garbologist" at Arizona (or State) who would study cores of sanitary landfills.  He told us they dated the material by reading newspapers at that depth.  Nearly everything would be preserved in a sanitary landfill, hence the name.  In some areas, some water would seep in sufficient to start some anaerobic decomposition (or aerobic in some cases).  The landfills have to collect the methane now and flare it off (usually).  

He had quite the fascinating presentation, been 25 years since I saw one I guess.  I used to work developing bioidegradable polymers.  Trying to anyway, not a whole lot of luck.  The ones that biodegraded did so too quickly to be useful.  We had one that was pretty decent for a day but a few hours in the light and it crumbled to dust, interesting stuff.  So we loaded it up with light stabilizers and it wouldn't degrade, no happy middle ground we ever found.

Fun project, amounted to squat but some useless patents.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:10:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 03:27:32 PM

Or make plastic out of trees which won't biodegrade.

Most people would roll their eyes at the idea that plastic could be our answer, but I think that's compelling:
Making plastic not out of oil refinery or natural gas products (something that had been outside of the active carbon cycle) but out of something (trees) that is still within the carbon cycle.
EDIT: though it does rely on that premise "won't biodegrade." And technically our current plastic products do degrade. I think the ones you compellingly proposed would have to be far more stable than styrofoam, for example, to qualify the carbon as having been removed from the carbon cycle. And...I'm not optimistic about that. I know you aren't optimistic about re-mineralizing carbon. But I'm thinking either we mineralize it (impossible?) and keep it at the surface or bury aliphatic/aromatic (less stable) versions deep into the crust.

EDIT2: Perhaps the aspect of "freighting" and "burying" "trees" that seems so impractical could be fixed by switching organisms. Place an industrial scale bioremediation complex near each defunct salt or coal mine and pump in a steady stream of cyanobacteria then sealant then cyanobacteria then sealant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 04:30:07 PM

Bacteria and algae etc. usually need air to stay alive, which means turbulence in the growth medium of some sort.

Then you have to filter the gunk, which isn't easy to do at scale (or even in the lab).  You can spin it down of course but that requires energy too.

Converting cellulose to "plastic" is not easy either, though we make rayon that way.  There was a lot of interest in polylactic acid back in the day but that seems to have waned.  

I would look at a fast growing tree like eucalyptus for fixing carbon and then finding a means to store it somewhere.

Charmin toilet paper is mostly eucalyptus, but it degrades.  That is why it is so linty.  Paper towels end up usually in landfill, so we could make more paper towels and writing paper.  But that alas takes energy too.

Writing paper often is about 20% inorganic "filler" like calcium carbonate, which also fixes CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:32:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 03:27:32 PM

That could be, but whatever is used to extract CO2 from the air has to be stored somewhere.  Trees contain quite a bit of carbon, basically C6H12O6 of course, or one carbon atom for each water molecule (hence "carbohydrate"), or 12 grams of carbon plus 18 grams of water.  Yes, there is lignin, but it is higher in carbon.

So, a dead tree is a rather efficient repository of carbon on a mass basis.  What else out there is 6/15ths carbon?

I think the lignin (20-35% by mass depending on the tree) does shift the carbon balance significantly above that 6/15 fraction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 04:37:21 PM

Yes, we could call if half, aside from the unbound water that would be in a tree, and be close enough.

That is better than calcium carbonate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:38:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 03:47:17 PM

There is, or was, a "garbologist" at Arizona (or State) who would study cores of sanitary landfills.  He told us they dated the material by reading newspapers at that depth.  Nearly everything would be preserved in a sanitary landfill, hence the name.  In some areas, some water would seep in sufficient to start some anaerobic decomposition (or aerobic in some cases).  The landfills have to collect the methane now and flare it off (usually).  

He had quite the fascinating presentation, been 25 years since I saw one I guess.  I used to work developing bioidegradable polymers.  Trying to anyway, not a whole lot of luck.  The ones that biodegraded did so too quickly to be useful.  We had one that was pretty decent for a day but a few hours in the light and it crumbled to dust, interesting stuff.  So we loaded it up with light stabilizers and it wouldn't degrade, no happy middle ground we ever found.

Fun project, amounted to squat but some useless patents.

I have no doubt that landfills delay degradation. But by which extent - a matter of a hundred years? Thousands? I'm just not sure it's enough to be part of a global solution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:44:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 04:30:07 PM

Bacteria and algae etc. usually need air to stay alive, which means turbulence in the growth medium of some sort.

Then you have to filter the gunk, which isn't easy to do at scale (or even in the lab).  You can spin it down of course but that requires energy too.

Those prone to film formation will settle out of suspension without need for centrifugation. And I was speculating about the possibility of pumping it into a pit/mine already in the process of dying, much like the trees would be. Hence the need for serial sealant application.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2018, 05:52:39 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:10:48 PM

Most people would roll their eyes at the idea that plastic could be our answer, but I think that's compelling:
Making plastic not out of oil refinery or natural gas products (something that had been outside of the active carbon cycle) but out of something (trees) that is still within the carbon cycle.

So... I'm supposed to use plastic straws to SAVE the planet now? 
:smiley_confused1:
:57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 05:56:32 PM

Plastic usually comes from oil, or natural gas.  If you burn =oil, you get CO2 obviously (and water).  If you make it into a polymer, you usually turn it into something that will not biodegrade or otherwise degrade for quite a long time.

Our landfills are loaded with trapped carbon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 06:41:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 05:56:32 PM

Plastic usually comes from oil, or natural gas.  If you burn =oil, you get CO2 obviously (and water).  If you make it into a polymer, you usually turn it into something that will not biodegrade or otherwise degrade for quite a long time.

Our landfills are loaded with trapped carbon.

I'd call it delayed carbon. It's only trapped on the time scale of one or a few human lives. Swamped trees locked in stone are trapped on geologic time. By comparison, being trapped for a few thousand years (and though I'm no "garbologist," I think that number could be generous) isn't being removed from the carbon cycle. It wouldn't even be older than the oldest tree.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 06:47:01 PM

I'd GUESS polyethylene in a landfill would be stable for 1,000 years before degrading into methane.  Either way, we don't make enough plastic for this to be a real factor as compared with how much oil and coal we burn.

The figure I saw is that 5-6% of petroleum goes into chemicals, and less than 1% coal.

The rest is burned.

But, yes, plastic in landfill is far from a very long term "expedient".

I like that phrase, a "long term expedient".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 08:23:12 AM

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34872

This is pretty clear about the replacement of coal with NG and impact on CO2 emissions in the US and why they are down significantly since 2010.  NG produces about 65% as much CO2 per thermal unit as coal.

"From 2005 to 2017, coal-related CO2 emissions declined by 835 million metric tons (39%), and petroleum-related CO2 emissions declined by 289 million metric tons (11%). Natural gas emissions, however, increased by 285 million metric tons (24%) over that period. The underlying energy consumption trends that resulted in these changes—mainly because more electricity has been generated from natural gas than from other fossil fuels—have helped to lower the U.S. emissions level since 2005 because natural gas is a less carbon-intensive fuel than either coal or petroleum."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 22, 2018, 08:29:27 AM

China emits over twice as much CO2 as the US.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 08:30:57 AM

So, if magically, all coal burning (other than for steel production) were replaced with NG, the 1200 million metric tons of CO2 would drop to about 800 million tons.

It would be difficult to replace that capacity with "wind and solar" quickly (or nuclear of course).

A crash program to build more nuclear plants to replace all coal fired plants could make a dent in ten years if funded (expensively) and tolerable to the public (not) and based on a single plant design.

There are two new reactors under construction down here, but that is it for nuclear in the US, and old plants are being decommissioned.

The global CO2 emissions are about 40 billion metric tons per year.  So, if the US replaced all coal with something carbon neutral, that would drop to about 37.8 billion tons, which isn't enough to offset the growth in global CO2 emissions.

That sort of highlights the main issue here, the shear scale of CO2 emissions globally, and the upward trend that is going to continue despite whatever papers are signed.  China and India are supposed to cap by 2030, but that simply isn't nearly enough.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 02:06:45 PM

https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b (https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b)

Increasing bouts of extreme heat waves and drought will hurt production of barley, a key beer ingredient, in the future. Losses of barley yield can be as much as 17 percent, an international group of researchers estimated.

That means beer prices on average would double, even adjusting for inflation, according to the study in Monday’s journal Nature Plants . In countries like Ireland, where cost of a brew is already high, prices could triple.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2018, 02:13:35 PM

NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on October 15, 2018, 02:24:05 PM

well... that will get middle america's attention.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 15, 2018, 02:36:31 PM

The wine industry perhaps faces a more serious issue with this.  One can in principle ship hops production a bit north to compensate in many cases, but the terroir so influential in wine production may not allow that.  Sensitive varietals like pinot noir could just have to be ended in terms of production.

I still sense all these predictions mostly fall on deaf ears.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 02:59:05 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 02:06:45 PM

https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b (https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b)

Increasing bouts of extreme heat waves and drought will hurt production of barley, a key beer ingredient, in the future. Losses of barley yield can be as much as 17 percent, an international group of researchers estimated.

That means beer prices on average would double, even adjusting for inflation, according to the study in Monday’s journal Nature Plants . In countries like Ireland, where cost of a brew is already high, prices could triple.

about 6 years back there was a blight with Hops crop.Micro's price definitely spiked and never returned to the original prices.Brewers never seemed as greedy as the rest of the market,evidently that has changed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 03:51:51 PM

hopefully the stock market will rebound before I retire so's I can afford beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 15, 2018, 05:54:13 PM

Speculative reporting.

They're not saying there's going to be a drought next year and we're all going to pay through the nose for beer.

They're saying that if you run through a bunch of climate change models, some of them result in drought and extreme heat scenarios which affect barley production, and thus beer prices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0263-1

Abstract:

Quote

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions.

It suggests that even if there is a change, we're talking about long-term adjustment periods. It might just mean that we get more malted barley from Canada.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 06:06:35 PM

Well if 94,Fearless,Bwarb and myself go on the wagon we'll bring these bastards around.OK you guys go 1st

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 08:01:18 PM

it's a scare tactic, but I ain't scared

Fearless is having another beer while watching the Brew Crew battle the Dodgers

It was 28 degrees here this morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 08:40:21 PM

I just had a Winter Warmer left over from last year,fine suds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2018, 08:45:57 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 08:40:21 PM

I just had a Winter Warmer left over from last year,fine suds

Nice.  I'm out of Oktoberfests/Marzen, so I cracked one of my last few Leffe Brune.  Delicious.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 08:51:50 PM

drink up fellas, prices are going up!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2018, 10:10:15 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 08:51:50 PM

drink up fellas, prices are going up!

I'll just have to spend more time at the LO brewery, where for me, it's always free. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 10:21:02 PM

I will dern sure figure out a way to keep drinking

How bad could it get in 40 years?  I'll be 96 at that time.  If I'm extremely lucky.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 15, 2018, 11:30:19 PM

i just had a hoppy wheat by Boulevard to celebrate the Crew's 4-0 victory.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 15, 2018, 11:42:50 PM

Not to hijack the thread, but I figured this might be a good place to make my first post in awhile. In case you all were wondering, I ended up in a rehab back in March because my parents thought I might be alcoholic (so of course this has turned into a beer thread) and then a longer-term place until finally getting out last week. I'm probably not alcoholic but am giving sobriety a chance for now. It was certainly a frustrating but humbling experience.

Fortunately, I got a decent contract job back in DC in the energy sector and I was also able to start some interesting freelance work I had on hold since March that's going well, so I think I'm finally in a good situation career-wise. That won't leave with me with nearly as much downtime as I've had in the past, so I probably won't be posting here nearly as often, but it'll be good to be busy.

Thankfully, I was still able to watch a lot of college football, so I've been enjoying that, especially with how Michigan has been playing.

As for the original topic, as I've said before on the energy side of things, renewables are going to win out over time. Coal has already peaked with no new plants compared to a wave of retirements in the US and elsewhere. Gas generation is just the intermediate solution. A big reason that GE has tanked is that they bet too hard on fossil fuel technologies. Electrification (and automation) of the transportation sector (among others) is about to take off (Tesla's problems aside), which will help lower the cost of batteries and potentially other energy storage technologies, which will make it even easier to integrate renewables, and consequently the oil industry will start going downhill, too. Not to get political, but everything that Trump has done and is trying to do to prevent this is only delaying the inevitable transition. The economics are what matter most, of course. The big wildcard is the potential of small-scale nuclear systems, if they become economical. I'm skeptical of that in the short-term but we'll see. Waste-to-energy becoming a player is more plausible, though....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 15, 2018, 11:47:04 PM

Thanks for the note, good to see you post here tonight.   I wish you the very best, and hope things continue to improve.  We're all one day at a time.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on October 16, 2018, 12:28:56 AM

Not only has Phoenix already had its wettest October on record (as of Oct 13th) but it's been much cooler than average most of the month as well. Forecasted high temp tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s, a good 20 degrees below the average high for the date (88 degrees). 

I'm not complaining. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2018, 08:29:58 AM

The problem with coal is that it provides about a third of our electricity now.  Wind and solar are at around 7% or so.  Even if they double, well, you can do the math.  They would need to go up 5x or more to replace coal.  That simply won't happen near term.

And of course this is just in the US, not talking about China and India who have a free run under the Paris agreement until 2030.

I don't see a viable "solution" that gets here fast enough.  The Paris Accords are likely unattainable at the same time as being not enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2018, 09:07:52 AM

Quote from: DevilFroggy on October 16, 2018, 12:28:56 AM

Not only has Phoenix already had its wettest October on record (as of Oct 13th) but it's been much cooler than average most of the month as well. Forecasted high temp tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s, a good 20 degrees below the average high for the date (88 degrees).

I'm not complaining.

Similar story here, SDF.  Record cool temps and record rain from early September through today.  Major flooding on the Llano River as we speak, it's risen 40' in about 12 hours.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 09:10:11 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 08:51:50 PM

drink up fellas, prices are going up!

There has to be a plan of attack,these guys are raking it in and just getting stoopid greedy.Guess I'll have to move to Austin and pull up a barstool next to 94.Or I could quit  quaffing......hmmm

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 09:13:06 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 16, 2018, 09:07:52 AM

 Major flooding on the Llano River as we speak, it's risen 40' in about 12 hours.  

40 ft?Holy Hell that's wrath of God type stuff.Is there a lot of development around that river or is it tucked away back in some canyon?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on October 16, 2018, 09:29:49 AM

the good news for Hoss is Zima's will remain cheap

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 11:09:12 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on October 15, 2018, 11:42:50 PM

Not to hijack the thread, but I figured this might be a good place to make my first post in awhile. In case you all were wondering, I ended up in a rehab back in March because my parents thought I might be alcoholic (so of course this has turned into a beer thread) and then a longer-term place until finally getting out last week. I'm probably not alcoholic but am giving sobriety a chance for now. It was certainly a frustrating but humbling experience.

I gave sobriety a couple chances back in the day.  Once for less than a year, court ordered.  The 2nd time for almost 4 years to try to save my marriage.
I certainly learned a lot about myself and think it was a good process to go through although hard work.
Keep an open mind and keep working hard.  Sobriety certainly won't hurt you.  Good luck.  Glad to hear you're doing well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 11:10:10 AM

record rainfall here in Iowa this summer

I blame Bobby Stoops

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 01:38:38 PM

Since when does kicking puppies in Oklahoma translate to rain in Iowa?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: grillrat on October 16, 2018, 01:52:40 PM

Well, you kick a puppy, he Yelps loudly, spewing a little more CO2 into the air.  The culmination of mass-puppy-kickings leads to a changing climate that results in more rain.  Perfectly reasonable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 01:59:25 PM

Could be fearless belching at the 19th hole doing the same thing.Thanx for the explanation sometimes I get in over my head

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 02:54:53 PM

well, Bobby was a D-back for Hayden back in the day in Iowa City.

so, there's your connection to Iowa.

(https://dataomaha.com/media/husker_history/game-photos/Iowa_1982_photo.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2018, 03:27:40 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 09:13:06 AM

40 ft?Holy Hell that's wrath of God type stuff.Is there a lot of development around that river or is it tucked away back in some canyon?

Not a ton of development, it's not like Houston building in the bayous or New Orleans building below sea level.
It's just a massive amount of rain in a short time, in an area that's already been pretty well soaked over the past 4-5 weeks, so runoff was pretty much immediate.
It's definitely biblical.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 18, 2018, 10:57:09 PM

Fearless - Thanks for the response to my post. There's certainly changes I need to make in my life, too, unrelated to drinking.

As for the topic, wind and solar have been and will continue to grow exponentially with continued cost reductions. In fact, the vast majority of power plants currently under construction or planned are wind and solar farms. The US is just starting to develop offshore wind projects, as well, which Europe has been doing for awhile now. In fact, the UK has halved its electricity generation from fossil fuels in the past 12 years, and California uses little if any coal and recently mandated it has to shut down its gas generators by 2045 with the 50% renewable portfolio standard while the remaining have to come from other carbon-free generation sources. Most other states can economically do the same if they want to.

The latest reports about climate change are saying that limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius is economically feasible with existing technologies. The solution is essentially to deploy more wind and solar, continue energy efficiency improvements, and electrify as much as possible, particularly in the transportation sector.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 19, 2018, 02:43:42 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on October 18, 2018, 10:57:09 PM

Fearless - Thanks for the response to my post. There's certainly changes I need to make in my life, too, unrelated to drinking.

The solution is essentially to deploy more wind and solar, continue energy efficiency improvements, and electrify as much as possible, particularly in the transportation sector.

My wife, 23-year old grad student daughter, and I drove past the local wind farm in NE Iowa to Taco Thursday in Osterdock. There were quite a few people in this unincorporated village that consists of a restaurant in a metal building in the middle of nowhere. There must have been a town here 100-years ago.
My diesel BMW got us here. I hope within 20 years if I am still able, I can drive an electric SUV to the skeletal remains of this great family restaurant, or to Taco Thursday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 19, 2018, 02:48:03 AM

Better yet, I hope I can drive an electric VW Microbus here in 10 years, and my life will come full circle to the day I chauffeured Ramsey Clarke around Tallahassee, and inspire Iowans in the middle of nowhwere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2018, 09:15:37 AM

Had to look up Ramsey Clarke,thought he might have been a country music singer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2018, 12:57:44 PM

I don't think electrical output from wind power is growing exponentially, unless that exponent is rather small.

It's projected to doubt from 2013 to 2020, which is great. By 2030, it is projected to increase from 113 to 224, and then 450 by 2050 (GW).

The main problem is coal, and that won't replace our current coal generation capabilities, much less growth.  Coal today is about 1,230 on that same scale.  Wind is about 6% or so now, so a 4x increase by 2050 would get that to 25% maybe, still not enough to replace all of coal, much less NG.  

The numbers just don't work nearly as I can see.  We could have some crash program for nukes, but that ain't happening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2018, 01:04:26 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on October 18, 2018, 10:57:09 PM

Fearless - Thanks for the response to my post. There's certainly changes I need to make in my life, too, unrelated to drinking.

.

I certainly wish you all the best (now that last Saturday's nightmare is over :03:). 
I was just thinking about you the other day, wondering where you've been. Don't be a stranger. This place can be therapy too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2018, 01:06:24 PM

Fall finally arrived, sort of, around here.  It was a bit chilly last night, in the 40s.  I went running around 11 AM and it was cool, but not for running.

It feels like football weather.  The leaves are just starting to tinge.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2018, 05:54:45 PM

I'm coming down there Booker

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 20, 2018, 01:30:58 AM

This place can definitely be therapeutic. I'm eager to get back to working next week though.

Here's a decent article about the growth of renewables and what still needs to happen. Maybe it is a bit optimistic, unfortunately, but most people have been underestimating the rise of growth of renewables and the demise of coal for awhile:

https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/a3p8w5/solar-power-could-still-save-the-world

Electric SUVs are in the works, but it's probably going to be awhile for EV batteries have the capacity for long-range trips, regardless of vehicle type (I think hydrogen is a better potential solution for trucks, though Tesla and others are trying to build electric trucks, too), but Lyft's recent $299 deal for 30 $15 trips per month worth of rides is just the most recent step in its goal to make car ownership in urban areas obsolete.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2018, 09:34:04 AM

If I lived in a truly urban area, I'd probably have a Smart car, or something like it, or nothing at all. People in urban areas don't care about bumping other cars. You can tell by looking at everyone's bumpers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 20, 2018, 09:59:30 AM

Smart car maybe,electric car no.I think they have a long way to go before locking horns with winters in the upper midwest.Being able to start every day in below freezing conditions.And having the nuts/guts to push thru lots of snow.When that electric vehicle is produced will it be economically competitive?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 08:36:42 AM

Wind and solar simply are not growing anywhere close to fast enough to reduce CO2 emissions significantly.  The trend to NG replacing coal has done more to reduce CO2 emissions in the US.  The numbers don't lie.

We traded our Caddy for the VW GTI which is a nice urban car, and comfortable on the road as well.  I miss the memory seat function though.  The Caddy, while not a Big Car, was too big for around here.  And we're getting better fuel economy, the curb weight is quite a bit less.

I never understood the fuel cell proposition.  Hydrogen is not a primary fuel.  You can't mine it on this planet, you have to make it, so it really is for energy storage.  Batteries are simply better at that.  Maybe somewhere down the road we get to fuel cells, but I don't see it, perhaps in large trucks.  You still have to use a lot of energy to make hydrogen.

I really see no practicable way to reduce human CO2 emissions fast enough to interrupt climate change if the models are anywhere near correct.  Hand waving won't do it.  You need a real plan, with timing and costs, and no one has that.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 08:38:44 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 20, 2018, 09:59:30 AM

Smart car maybe,electric car no.I think they have a long way to go before locking horns with winters in the upper midwest.Being able to start every day in below freezing conditions.And having the nuts/guts to push thru lots of snow.When that electric vehicle is produced will it be economically competitive?

As for "guts", electric cars have more than gasoline cars, if you mean torque.  The problem with the cold is that batteries don't like it.  The cars themselves have plenty of power.  The Chevy Bolt is arguably close to being practical and competitive if you live in a high gas price area.
Electric motors are famous for low end torque.  Pushing through snow is not an issue.  Loss of range in cold weather can be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2018, 11:14:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 08:36:42 AM

I never understood the fuel cell proposition.  Hydrogen is not a primary fuel.  You can't mine it on this planet, you have to make it, so it really is for energy storage.  Batteries are simply better at that.  Maybe somewhere down the road we get to fuel cells, but I don't see it, perhaps in large trucks.  You still have to use a lot of energy to make hydrogen.

The idea of hydrogen is refueling. The biggest knock on electric is the range, and the fact that recharging is much slower than petroleum refueling.
Even the Tesla supercharging stations take 30 minutes or more. What happens when you're on a road trip, get to a charging station (that's full), wait 20 minutes to even start your car, and then have 35 more minutes to get back on the road? Not ideal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 21, 2018, 01:06:18 PM

I'm roughing in a car charger in my garage in our new house,   I don't have an electric car yet, seems inevitable.   Range is my only concern at the moment.   I feel once we're solidly past 300 miles of range,  I'm down with it.   Pretty close now with a couple models.  I have a couple drives I do regularly which consistently put me in the 270-350 range.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 04:12:40 PM

Range is fine, but hydrogen has to be generated, which takes more energy than you get back.  It's merely a fancy expensive battery that requires an enormous infrastructure change.

I don't see it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 04:13:54 PM

My guess is circa 2030, many two car households will have one all electric vehicle and one gasoline or plug in hybrid family vehicle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 21, 2018, 05:12:21 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 08:38:44 AM

Electric motors are famous for low end torque.  Pushing through snow is not an issue.  Loss of range in cold weather can be.

And just happens to be a coincidence that snow is cold,so I'd run into a problem the further down the road I got if there is another snow squall that brings me back to my original point.3-4 yrs back the Great Lakes all froze over 2 straight years,the last time that happened was I believe'93-'94 and before that '77-'78 I think.I happen to live 2 miles from one that's why it would matter for me(us)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2018, 08:24:43 AM

As I said, cold reduces range, but "pushing through the snow" because of engine/motor power would not be the problem.

You might need winter tires, as the low rolling resistance tires on EVs today have rather poor traction.  Some car mag did a test where they swapped out the standard tires on a Volt with summer tires and the difference in range and braking and the skidpad performance was remarkable.

Range went down a lot.  Those low rolling resistance tires sound great until you consider the impact (ha) on braking distances and cornering.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2018, 08:27:03 AM

Anyway, if you have the numbers and the algorithms, you can plug different scenarios in to see impact on future climate.  Even if we went to zero carbon NOW, the impact continues for decades, and is not good.  If you use aggressive scenarios for replacing coal globally and then NG and petroleum, the numbers are scary bad.  And we won't even do that, not even close.

China and India get a free pass until 2030 and then they "agreed" to limit emissions from there on.  Not nearly enough.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/whats-in-a-half-a-degree-2-very-different-future-climates/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sa-editorial-social&utm_content=&utm_term=&sf200219549=1&linkId=58343526

"Preventing a temperature rise of 2 degrees C will be a major challenge, one that the current commitments from various countries will likely be unable to meet. And that is before Pres. Donald Trump pulls the U.S. out of the agreement. But the report says a 1.5-degree C limit is not impossible—although it will require immediate and drastic action, because the current pace of emissions would breach that level between 2030 and 2052. The most likely scenario for achieving that goal may require blowing past it, and then sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to bring temperatures back in line."

It would be much easier to limit CO2 generation in the first place versus pulling it out of the air.  The numbers are very very dire here, with no obvious plan to make them better beyond signing some paper agreements to do stuff later.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 22, 2018, 04:09:12 PM

Preventing CO2 emissions is definitely better than having to recapture them. Here's a new article that projects that by 2035 the whole oil & gas industry will be in decline. At the bottom, it is conceded that may be too late, so hopefully governments will figure out a way to expedite the transition to renewables:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/energy-transition-to-reach-point-of-no-return-by-2035#gs.da481fo

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2018, 04:14:58 PM

That is exactly my point.  I've spent time looking at the numbers and the projections.  If the models are roughly correct, NOTHING is going to keep us from well exceeding a 2°C rise short of massive depopulation by something.  

One can talk about how fast wind and solar are growing, but IT IS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH, and nuclear is simply not happening either.

Just the concept of replacing COAL by 2035 appears unattainable in practicable terms.  The numbers are not remotely close, not even talking about China and India.

I think "we" need a dose of reality here.  It's akin to having terminal cancer and someone says take these pills and you will live 3 extra days and the pills cost a million dollars.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2018, 08:35:59 PM

a billion dollars per pill and you take 4 pills a day for the next 5 years

mobilization and  effort and motivation including the entire industrialized world such as the late 1930's through the mid 1940's for the pursuit of WWII might make a considerable dent in the problem

but, obviously the motivation is not there

folks aren't interested in giving up their sons and husbands or their automobiles and gasoline or their vacations and whataburgers for this cause

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 22, 2018, 08:52:07 PM

And that's the most frustrating part of it all. What a lot of people don't realize for whatever reason is how much economic benefit there is in making these investments, long-term in particular, but short-term, too (wind turbine and solar panel installers and maintenance workers are two of the fastest growing jobs in the country and probably the world, and it's not even close: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm). Energy efficiency (energy auditors and the like) has already matured and has more jobs than the rest of the energy sector, combined, with 2.25 million (https://www.greenmatters.com/news/2018/09/19/ml9Mz/energy-efficiency-jobs-report)

I got into this whole space not because I was an environmentalist, but because I saw how it was growing due to economic reasons and would continue to. The fact that it's interesting work and makes a real difference is a bonus.

Anyway, I'll get off my soapbox for now and hope for the best....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2018, 09:37:00 PM

hope isn't going to do it

but, you know that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2018, 09:13:27 AM

I have looked without success for any outline of a basic plan even in the US to make a real substantive impact in our CO2 emissions.

Maybe there is one somewhere, I haven't found it.  

Such a plan should at least project:

How fast emissions can be reduced.
How that would impact CC.
How much it would cost.
How coal and NG and petroleum would be replaced viably over time to reduce emissions.

I think the reason there isn't one is that when people look at the numbers, they give up.  Hand waving doesn't do it.

No doubt we can make some progress over time, but it simply won't be enough.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-set-to-rise-2-percent-in-2017-following-three-year-plateau

The last graph in that link is especially eye opening I think.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-co2-emissions-rise-after-paris-climate-agreement-signed/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2018, 10:51:10 AM

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8.epdf?referrer_access_token=5QK7FGfdZNJBnww3rg3gadRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PPM6F5Tw--xUcDaVyo5KYP7_G9gTDd9jkXQCGLmYVcdiHz9wkwN0E6N2nDZlq4WDQgItGi5ylVScf0yzGnaEVfvjiMb4AD29fhh3xQR3z_DrC_cMrTVL7ZhdR6IhWWEdbaBw61pmJWfJX3nlJ6qnYm0eEGF290YDw0L29Qu1D0Zo3ti9EtUV0eTqh8Y9w5-oUx2QwN2d9ZfvrbV8VI76Jac_wGy8vU0HDJC8kZsxCODUxL-v0-LWQnBluUpq-qsDW9f53WLudiW6kwvNEkO4I0rLhw__H9ttuxs_edKYdWRZpKObHZFDXb4rWIN4ejpIkHGo-pg6Ic2wrQdCdp4Hi007oNSse22rlNllcb1bsahg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

Basically, things may be worse than thought in terms of oceanic heat changes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2018, 10:49:27 AM

Washington voters in Tuesday returns rejected I-1631, the proposed carbon fee initiative, which would have raised more than $1 billion annually by 2023, with spending decisions to be made by a governor-appointed board as well as the state's utilities.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 10:56:51 AM

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/washington-state-votes-down-i-1631-major-climate-bill/575131/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on November 07, 2018, 10:58:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2018, 10:51:10 AM

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8.epdf?referrer_access_token=5QK7FGfdZNJBnww3rg3gadRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PPM6F5Tw--xUcDaVyo5KYP7_G9gTDd9jkXQCGLmYVcdiHz9wkwN0E6N2nDZlq4WDQgItGi5ylVScf0yzGnaEVfvjiMb4AD29fhh3xQR3z_DrC_cMrTVL7ZhdR6IhWWEdbaBw61pmJWfJX3nlJ6qnYm0eEGF290YDw0L29Qu1D0Zo3ti9EtUV0eTqh8Y9w5-oUx2QwN2d9ZfvrbV8VI76Jac_wGy8vU0HDJC8kZsxCODUxL-v0-LWQnBluUpq-qsDW9f53WLudiW6kwvNEkO4I0rLhw__H9ttuxs_edKYdWRZpKObHZFDXb4rWIN4ejpIkHGo-pg6Ic2wrQdCdp4Hi007oNSse22rlNllcb1bsahg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

Basically, things may be worse than thought in terms of oceanic heat changes.

Seems like a very indirect way of measuring ocean heat uptake.  And gas measurements are always tricky.  Wouldn't it be better to measure global ocean surface temperature by satellite and temperature at depth directly?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 11:09:20 AM

The "best way" would be to have multiple different measurements using differing techniques, so  this method is an additional technique.

I saw some article a while back about how hard it is to measure mean temperature of something like planetary atmosphere or ocean water, etc., and it was rather mind bogglingly hard.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 07, 2018, 01:16:20 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 21, 2018, 11:14:00 AM

Even the Tesla supercharging stations take 30 minutes or more. What happens when you're on a road trip, get to a charging station (that's full), wait 20 minutes to even start your car, and then have 35 more minutes to get back on the road? Not ideal.

My understanding is that you'd have two options. Either:

• Plan your road trip day to include a lunch break during your recharge**, OR
• Aim for one of their robotic stations which can remove your fuel cell and give you a new one (fully charged) in a couple minutes at a ... probably steep fee.

**(A nice benefit is that these standard recharges are so far 100% free of cost. And Musk has multiply promised to never change that. So, if you go on one of these road trips now, or wait until years from now and believe him, you can travel from NYC to Los Angeles without paying for gas. That's mighty nice.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 07, 2018, 01:19:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 11:09:20 AM

The "best way" would be to have multiple different measurements using differing techniques, so  this method is an additional technique.

I saw some article a while back about how hard it is to measure mean temperature of something like planetary atmosphere or ocean water, etc., and it was rather mind bogglingly hard.

I appreciate that back and forth. Fascinating. If you can easily find the article you're describing here, I'd enjoy it. Thanks!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 01:33:55 PM

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/energybalance/earthtemperature.html

This is just one written in simpler terms, which is good.  The other one I couldn't find questioned what "average" means with such a concept. Do you just take say 600 readings at noon and midnight and average them?  The satellite readings are considered to be most reliable but they date back to 1979 I think it is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 01:46:35 PM

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jc98/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 02:37:07 PM

Washington's carbon tax rejection isn't as big of a deal as it may seem. Most of their electricity generation is already from hydro, they are one of the biggest EV markets, and already have some of the lowest emissions of all states. The fact that there was 20x as much money spent opposing it as supporting it is rather telling.... Carbon taxes are being implemented elsewhere, including Canada, so it's only a matter of time before it happens in the US, though it already has in a few places locally (including Montgomery County MD just outside of DC).

The bigger disappointment is that Arizona rejected a 50% renewable portfolio standard, though it may be irrelevant since they're already developing so many solar projects.

As for EV charging, I think battery switching will become a more viable option as EVs become more common, but there is a lot of R&D being done to improve the energy density of batteries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 02:56:18 PM

Atlanta is a big EV market also (as in second behind SF).

https://www.fleetcarma.com/top-cities-electric-vehicle-sales/

Of course, most of the "E" comes from burning coal, though there is some nuclear and gas of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 03:05:09 PM

There is some correlation between EV sales and renewable generation in that locale. On that list alone, the only exceptions to that are Atlanta, Detroit, and DC, while West Coast gets a substantial amount of its electricity from hydro, wind, and solar.

For the record, coal has already fallen below natural gas as the main source of electricity: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3.
Furthermore, the most coal-dependent states are the most rural (where there are few EVs): https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37034

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 03:11:28 PM

I was incorrect that "most" of our E comes from coal, only a quarter does.  The two new power reactors are still under construction at Vogtle, of course running well over cost estimates..

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=GA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 03:34:24 PM

Nuclear has a lot of problems, which is why there are have been very few nuclear plants built in the past 30 years, with Georgia's being the last one still under construction, and many are retiring along with coal plants.

- Upfront costs, which are very high and often underestimated (Georgia's plant being a prime example). They're also not cost effective if they don't have really high generation capacity, though there is R&D being done to commercialize smaller-scale systems.
- Operation and maintenance costs are also fairly substantial
- Inflexibility in generation output. Nuclear is basically on or off, and it's expensive to turn on and off (usually only done once per year for maintenance as I understand it). Apparently France's plants have some flexibility for some reason, but that isn't the case in the US. Consequently, they can only be used as baseload plants so they have to be cost-effective enough to ensure that they will be cheap enough to dispatch at the lowest-demand hours (ie. middle of the night)..... This becomes increasingly problematic with the growth of renewables (which have no generation costs and their output cannot be controlled without energy storage infrastructure)
- Wholesale electricity markets (PJM, NYISO, ERCOT, ISONE, etc.) have provided competition allowing independent generators to compete to improve the cost-effectiveness and reliability of electricity. These markets only exist in the Northeast, Midwest, Texas, and California, but those states are where most of the nuclear plants are being retired as a result.... Conversely, the Southeast states, including Georgia, still have a traditional system where utilities monopolize generation, in addition to transmission, distribution, and energy sales.... That said, some states (IL and NY primarily) do subsidize nuclear with what they call zero emission credits as part of their renewable (or more accurately in this case, zero-carbon) portfolio standards. Other states are considering similar policies to prevent their nuclear plants from retiring early.

This article explains this and some other issues better: https://theconversation.com/the-demise-of-us-nuclear-power-in-4-charts-98817

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 03:41:15 PM

I read that only about 0.5% of US residences have PVs on their roofs.  I looked into it in Ohio and for me it was not even close to being viably financially.  I keep reading that PV is near par with whatever, but there is something wrong somewhere.  Part of that is I had to buy the PVs and then find someone to install them correctly, and the latter step was not easy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 03:58:37 PM

Solar is most cost effective in the West, particularly California, where electricity prices are higher and solar generation potential is higher (more sunny days). Ohio has relatively cheap electricity because it is part of PJM and the solar generation potential isn't so great. Regardless of where you live, energy efficiency investments are more cost-effective, too (smart thermostat, LED lighting, EnergyStar appliances).

Furthermore, solar is most cost effective for utility-scale systems due to economies of scale. Commercial-scale systems (those on land fills, roofs of schools / warehouses / etc.) are increasingly cost-effective, as well, especially in community solar programs (where entities can subscribe to the system, even if their building is elsewhere)..... Also, non-residential buildings have more complex electricity bills. Instead of just a flat rate, they have peak demand charges (a charge based on their highest level of energy usage) and often have time-of-use rates, which fluctuate in real-time based on the wholesale cost of electricity. These facilities can actually take advantage of these complexities to lower their overall price per kWh if they utilize their energy management systems and on-site generators appropriately, in which case they can even be compensated by the independent system operator of the wholesale market (eg. PJM) to help keep the grid balanced.

Solar is cost-effective for residential systems in many areas, as well, but a big issue, especially in Southern states, are rules against leasing them (which was SolarCity's model before Tesla took it over) so that the company owns the system and takes a percentage of electricity generated, eliminating the up-front costs. My understanding is that there are similar restrictions against financing (so that the customer owns the system but took a loan to do so). Permitting requirements and regulations are also a big challenge, not to mention many roofs don't get enough solar exposure or don't face sufficiently south or westward.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 04:24:59 PM

For us, it was not remotely close to being viable, off by 5-7x as I recall, and our roof had good orientation.

Whatever the barriers, roof top solar is not taking hold very quickly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 07, 2018, 07:21:31 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on November 07, 2018, 01:16:20 PM

**(A nice benefit is that these standard recharges are so far 100% free of cost. And Musk has multiply promised to never change that. So, if you go on one of these road trips now, or wait until years from now and believe him, you can travel from NYC to Los Angeles without paying for gas. That's mighty nice.)

I find that if you tally Musk's realized claims in one hand and his bulljive claims in another, you won't be happy about which one fills up first. :)
And saying "oh, just schedule it around a lunch stop" or something like that is the equivalent of saying "oh, take Amtrak, it's so romantic to ride the rails!"
Next weekend the wife and I are going to Sonoma. Rather than fight traffic through / out of LA on a Friday [which is hell], have to stop midway and get a hotel, we'd rather just start first thing in the morning. But we want to get there and still have time for wineries. Scheduling an extra 30-60 minutes into our drive time--and hoping the only Supercharger station in the right range to get us there with a single stop [247 miles from home, on a 450 mile journey] isn't busy or have a line on a Saturday morning, kinda makes our journey duration... unpredictable. 
Not much of an issue with a 5 minute gas stop. 
Now, I realize that's not the most common problem. Most people who can afford Tesla vehicles have another vehicle in their household--or enough money to rent cars for those infrequent road trips. So most people have access to a secondary vehicle to use for the journeys that the Tesla isn't well suited for.
BUT, this is one of the key reasons why electrics will have trouble completely replacing combustion engines. The need to change your refueling/recharging stop from 5 minutes to 30-60 minutes (or more if there's a wait) makes the vehicle impractical for a lot of drivers--at least as their only household vehicle. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 07, 2018, 07:28:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 04:24:59 PM

For us, it was not remotely close to being viable, off by 5-7x as I recall, and our roof had good orientation.

Whatever the barriers, roof top solar is not taking hold very quickly.

Oddly enough, back during the recession of 2007-09, there was a program derisively called "Cash for caulkers" after the poorly-executed "cash for clunkers" failed. It was a way to subsidize energy-efficient retrofits of existing houses.
While my political leanings make me bristle at it, from an economic standpoint it makes a lot of sense. 
The biggest issue with energy-efficient retrofits is that the upfront cost is often quite high, but the savings are spread out over time. So you need money now in the assumption of long-term savings. It's the opposite of a get-rich-quick scheme! Further, I think a lot of energy efficiency upgrades are hard to recoup in the sale of a house, so unless you stay in the same house long-term, you'll never make your investment back.
That said, energy efficiency is a net gain to society. It reduces aggregate demand, reduces the environmental impact of generating energy, and in the long term reduces cost to everyone. 
So it's the PERFECT sort of thing to subsidize, because it has a lot of positive externalities that are difficult for the purchaser to recoup, so energy efficiency upgrades receive under-investment in the market. 
But that's why rooftop solar doesn't take off. If I have to pay $15,000 to put solar on my roof, but it will take me 10 years to recoup the investment, I have to KNOW I'm planning on staying in a house for 10+ years. That's hard to do in our modern world. Hence fewer people buy these systems than would do so if there was a better business model that reduced the upfront cost. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 07:38:07 PM

I calculated a negative net future value on solar.  I was better off buying T bills.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 09:12:09 PM

The reason energy efficiency incentives exist is because it's much more cost-effective for utilities to pay for rebates on those upgrades than it is for them to build a peaker plant that only operates during the summer (and the marginal price of the electricity coming from it) and the associated transmission & distribution infrastructure. In fact, California has deployed energy storage systems instead of building additional generation, transmission, and distribution equipment for those peak demand hours. Demand response (paying consumers to reduce their usage during those peak demand hours) is part of the solution as well.

That said, the payback period for many energy efficiency upgrades isn't necessarily quick for the residential sector, and they aren't often accounted for in home values. That's why ESCOs exist to finance those projects (albeit they're focused on commercial, industrial, and public sector entities). Same deal with roof-top solar and other on-site generation projects.

And yes, Musk does often overpromise and underdeliver, but he has the right vision in place. Electrification and automation of the auto industry is inevitable. Roof-top solar will be cost-effective for most people, eventually, and despite all that, we still might have to colonize Mars (thus Spacex).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2018, 09:38:58 PM

I'm not going to make it to Barcelona

sure as heck ain't goin to Mars

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 07, 2018, 11:25:25 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 07, 2018, 09:38:58 PM

sure as heck ain't goin to Mars

Not too late to change that expectation. Musk's BFR will be ready preposterously soon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2018, 07:40:42 AM

Getting to Mars is considerably tougher than getting to the Moon, one reason being radiation exposure.  I have not seen a viable solution to that one as yet.  It probably would be a one way trip.  

Anyway, the climate change is a fairly simple calculation (sort of).  We have a pretty good handle on how many gigatons of CO2 are generated each year.  We know roughly how much is "absorbed" by this and that.  We track very accurately the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere (station on Mauna Loa has been there a while).  We have various models projecting the increase in global T as a function of said increase.

Then we can eyeball how much realistic steps might reduce the RATE OF INCREASE.  Had we started in earnest in say 1990 we might have a shot.  Today it's too late to do anything more than chisel a few tenths of a degree off the inevitable, if the models are right.

What I've seen of the ITER experiment in France is quite disappointing, a lot of internal strife and overruns.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 08, 2018, 08:08:05 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 08, 2018, 07:40:42 AM

What I've seen of the ITER experiment in France is quite disappointing, a lot of internal strife and overruns.

Kind of like NASA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 08, 2018, 08:09:28 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 07, 2018, 09:38:58 PM

I'm not going to make it to Barcelona

sure as heck ain't goin to Mars

Wildwood Flower grew wild on the farm we never knew what it was called.........

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2018, 08:13:28 AM

ITER is also plagued by "international uncooperation" apparently, in addition to the usual.  The folks resent having a Japanese person on top, or whoever else.  They have split into national factions often as not from what I've read.

It is human nature to have folks vying for power, but when nationalities get sparked, it is like building a house with half Michigan carpenters and half OSU dry wallers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 08, 2018, 06:58:04 PM

Well, this was timely for this thread: https://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2018/11/8/18076216/its-assembly-time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 09, 2018, 12:03:48 AM

Nice find bwarbiany.

As for fusion, MIT is apparently trying to have a prototype system ready by 2025 and commercialize it in the next 15 years. I'm skeptical, but I hope they can do it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2018, 08:18:36 AM

The ITER thing is the large expensive international effort on fusion.  There are a lot of smaller efforts as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on November 13, 2018, 11:14:46 AM

Not by fire but by ice.


https://www.iceagenow.info/lack-of-sunspots-to-bring-record-cold-warns-nasa-scientist/ (https://www.iceagenow.info/lack-of-sunspots-to-bring-record-cold-warns-nasa-scientist/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2018, 11:37:17 AM

The association between sun spots and climate is interesting, but never validated that I know of.  It was thought to be related to the "Little Ice Age", perhaps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on November 15, 2018, 08:01:56 AM

Not so fast.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/sd-me-climate-study-error-20181113-story.html (https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/sd-me-climate-study-error-20181113-story.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2018, 08:19:44 AM

Keeling said they have since redone the calculations, finding the ocean is still likely warmer than the estimate used by the IPCC. However, that increase in heat has a larger range of probability than initially thought — between 10 percent and 70 percent, as other studies have already found.
“Our error margins are too big now to really weigh in on the precise amount of warming that’s going on in the ocean,” Keeling said. “We really muffed the error margins.”
A correction has been submitted to the journal Nature.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2018, 08:51:34 AM

https://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/husker-balloon-found-on-new-york-beach-did-it-start/article_e78ad2a3-cc18-5ff6-a7d9-2c918a65e16e.html (https://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/husker-balloon-found-on-new-york-beach-did-it-start/article_e78ad2a3-cc18-5ff6-a7d9-2c918a65e16e.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 17, 2018, 09:27:25 AM

Biodegradable?Ya in a century or two

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2018, 09:54:22 AM

patience

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on November 17, 2018, 10:15:46 AM

I call bull.  Nearby watch party claimed they release balloons as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2018, 10:23:10 AM

yup, slim chance it came from the stadium, but......... it's undeniably a Husker balloon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2018, 05:30:55 PM

6 possessions, 42 points.  Nice long throw by Fields.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2018, 08:41:37 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 17, 2018, 10:23:10 AM

yup, slim chance it came from the stadium, but......... it's undeniably Husker Pollution

FIFY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2018, 10:48:20 AM

A typical balloon is made out of a rubber, which means it is basically polyisoprene crosslinked with something, often sulfur.

Polyisoprene biodegrades readily, which is good since trees make the stuff.  It actually photodegrades quickly and then the pieces biodegrade.

Crosslinking it slows this considerably, which is good because our tires are made of it.  But even tires oxidize over time.  An old tire with good tread can be very slippery on the road.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2018, 10:57:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2018, 10:48:20 AM

A typical balloon is made out of a rubber, which means it is basically polyisoprene crosslinked with something, often sulfur.

Polyisoprene biodegrades readily, which is good since trees make the stuff.  It actually photodegrades quickly and then the pieces biodegrade.

Was watching investigators break down suspects in the DB Cooper case.When that kid found some stacked/wrapped bills on a Columbia River beach in 1980.They surmise they were indeed planted long after the hijacking because of the rubber bands still on them.Don't know if they ever proved that however - prolly the last relevant segment the History Channel ever did

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2018, 11:00:24 AM

We've all had old rubber bands break on us I suspect.  That's due to oxidation and embrittlement.

I once worked on a project to replace the polymers we were using with some kind of polyisoprene analog.  It was interesting but the issues were overwhelming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2018, 11:15:10 AM

Investigators thought the rubber was in too good of shape to be from 1971.You should have used polyisoprene digital - problem solved ;-b

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2019, 05:05:46 PM

Bump.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2019, 07:31:38 PM

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433886-un-report-finds-globe-is-past-the-point-of-halting-temperature-rise

If this is close to being predictive, things are headed into problematic territory.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 07:32:03 PM

you found it!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 13, 2019, 08:29:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2019, 07:31:38 PM

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433886-un-report-finds-globe-is-past-the-point-of-halting-temperature-rise

If this is close to being predictive, things are headed into problematic territory.

Yeah, it's a real cluster of a problem.
Some say "Why try?" if it appears impossible. In some ways that's fair. And not worrying our pretty little heads certainly fits our patterns of selling out for short-term gains. That part - "our patterns" - reminds me to consider human nature again, as if we were always destined to create and suffer this mess. I'm not actually that cynical, but I'll forgive someone who is. In fact, that whole idea has interesting things to say about what we can be blamed or forgiven for if bankrolling Nature (ad infinitum) was always in our nature.
Nevertheless, and even if it is forgivable, obviously Not Trying Because "Why Try? It's Impossible" is irresponsible. Irresponsible in several veins: in terms of general stewardship**, it terms of staying max-prepared in case our models are only slightly too pessimistic (that it's actually not impossible), and also in terms of "too much bad news" being quantitatively better than "even more too much bad news."
In any event, it's weird how, without the facts of the Earth really changing at all, in the matter of the last two months, the idea of this getting so bad it becomes a true national emergency is now forever more complicated, in American politics.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2019, 08:45:52 PM

Got up to 62 in the late afternoon today,tomorrow close to 70.Fri/Sat down to 30 and snow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 13, 2019, 08:46:23 PM

[I forgot the footnote which is good in this case because it deserves to be its own thing]

**(Because this is such a polarizing concept, and because successfully curtailing emissions probably requires the vast majority of Americans to point in the same direction regardless of partisanship, that word "Stewardship" is going to be a major fulcrum. Slowing climate change (or at least contributing to it less, polluting less, etc.) can never be realistic if conservatives don't LOVE the idea equally as progressives. And that will require conservatives pointing in the same direction, albeit for their own reasons. I think this is as inevitable as it is good. In fact, I think there's already evidence that it's happening. Often using Christianity as anchor, there is a palpable uptick in right-of-center organizations arguing for slowing emissions (as well as curbing single-use plastics, deforestation, etc.) in the name of living up to the responsibilities of dominion over God's Earth. And it isn't all kumbaya or handwaving. In fact, in Utah last year, the conservative state senate took up significant climate change legislation because their minds were changed by the arguments of Mormon youth calling for better respecting the planet God gave them. Surely that's not yet enough to change the world. We're still not on track to stave off catastrophe. But washing this thing of identity politics and making it multilateral is a CRUCIAL step in us having a chance at all)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 08:53:14 PM

crazy flooding here

warm weather melting snow along with rain and then the biggest factor of the ground being frozen, so everything runs off.  nothing soaking in

MrNubbz, sending it your way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2019, 09:13:16 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 07:32:03 PM

you found it!!!

I know people here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2019, 09:13:47 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 08:53:14 PM

crazy flooding here

warm weather melting snow along with rain and then the biggest factor of the ground being frozen, so everything runs off.  nothing soaking in

MrNubbz, sending it your way

Remove the levees. Make it real.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 09:15:27 PM

oh, it's real

many roads closed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2019, 11:23:04 PM

It’s cold as hell here at Cactus League spring training.  Plenty of rain, too.  Feels like a FL winter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 13, 2019, 11:32:05 PM

I see 80 is shutdown all the way from western border to GI. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2019, 08:12:23 AM

Predicted high here today is 78°F.  Saturday's predicted low is 37°F.  The city will probably close down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2019, 10:50:30 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on March 13, 2019, 11:32:05 PM

I see 80 is shutdown all the way from western border to GI.

I wouldn't be surprised if I-80 gets closed in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 14, 2019, 03:21:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 08:53:14 PM

crazy flooding here

warm weather melting snow along with rain and then the biggest factor of the ground being frozen, so everything runs off.  nothing soaking in

MrNubbz, sending it your way

Last 2 weekends we've had crazy high winds,as long as that's not coming - then bring it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2019, 04:01:49 PM

gusts over 50mph this afternoon

sorry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2019, 04:52:47 PM

We were out and about in the car and I turned on the A/C.  It was stiffling.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2019, 04:57:59 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 14, 2019, 04:01:49 PM

gusts over 50mph this afternoon

sorry

That's what we have here now. I can take heat. I can take cold. I can take snow. I can take rain.


I really hate wind. Breeze? Fine, but screw this crap.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2019, 06:40:20 PM

golfers and boaters have this in common

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 14, 2019, 08:54:39 PM

It was up to 70 for the first time this year in DC today. I was thinking about bumping this topic because there's been a lot of news in the energy policy world in the aftermath of the Green New Deal hype.

New Mexico just announced it's going 80% renewable / 100% clean (which includes hydro & nuclear and other carbon-free technologies) by 2050. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, New York, Nevada, and Washington are all considering similar if not more ambitious legislation, with Maine and Michigan potentially doing the same. Only Hawaii, California, DC, and some cities have passed similar legislation in the US. Pennsylvania is also considering a law to subsidize it's nuclear plants, similar to how Illinois, New York, and New Jersey have. I'm not a fan of nuclear power long-term but I'd rather see coal plants get retired first.

As I've explained before, the end of coal (and eventually gas) generation is not a matter of if but when. Most of the wind generation is in Great Plains states and solar is growing fastest in Texas, too. It's all about economics and shouldn't be a political issue. That said, by 2020, there may not even be that much need for a national policy like the Clean Power Plan or Green New Deal with all of the state and local legislation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 10:28:10 AM

I am unimpressed by any intention to go whatever by 2050, completely unimpressed.  Yoda said something about this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 15, 2019, 10:33:47 AM

Ya like the environment will wait or take directives,provided mankind affects climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 10:48:20 AM

It's just facile, IMHO, to "commit" to doing something 31 years from now.  It's just verbiage meant to sound good to the voters (some of them).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 12:37:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 10:28:10 AM

I am unimpressed by any intention to go whatever by 2050, completely unimpressed.  Yoda said something about this.

It's better than nothing, I guess, but does fall flat/lacks balls.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 12:43:02 PM

I see it as pandering.  You commit to something in 2050 about which you cannot be held to account, ever.  Now, if you state it as a goal and lay out a concrete plan with actions starting now, or soon, I might have a bit more respect for it.

"Hey, I'm your new coach, glad to be here, I commit to winning an NC by 2050, thanks."

Electricity from coal plus NG today is 60% of our production.  That isn't going to "go away" because of some politician's comments.  And the System still needs some kind of reliable baseline power from somewhere.  Wind is at around 7% and solar maybe 1% on the grid.  You can triple those figures and not replace coal, particularly if transportation starts going electric.  And that demand would be significant and at night, largely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 01:04:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 12:43:02 PM

Now, if you state it as a goal and lay out a concrete plan with actions starting now, or soon, I might have a bit more respect for it.

This is what I thought Michi was discussing. And I give it "better than nothing" credit because some goals do require decades of advanced planning. But it still lacks balls. And in America it also runs the risk of cancellation when government control changes Party.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 15, 2019, 01:13:37 PM

Great point that would place more of a burden on the grid.IMO the corporate creeps will take the easy money until it runs it course be it Coal,Nuke or NG.Then they'll employ the new sources which by that time they will have finagled the rights/patents to from the properly placed lobbyists

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2019, 01:35:52 PM

The GND is impossible. 



1, we don't have enough money to make it feasible. 


2, there is not enough manpower in the construction fields to make it happen (that number keeps dropping, as more people want art history degrees).



Can we make strides? Absolutely. I know this, because already have.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 02:26:46 PM

What is needed, and absent, are realistic practicable plans, with costs estimates.  I've never found any anywhere.  I think there is a reason for that.

Instead, we propose toothless high sounding and trite "commitment" and "goals" with zero enablement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 04:38:48 PM

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/01/coal-will-remain-part-of-the-us-grid-until-2050-federal-energy-projections-say/

Coal, one of the most carbon-emitting sources of energy, is still projected to provide 17 percent of the United States' electricity in 2050, and that's assuming that no carbon-capture technology has been made mandatory. Natural gas—a fossil fuel that is less carbon-emitting than coal but still a problem for climate change—will increase its share of US electricity production from 34 percent to 39 percent.

 renewables are projected to increase from 18 percent of US electricity production to 31 percent by 2050. But a world where renewable energy makes up only one third of the US' electricity mix and nuclear energy actually decreases from 19 percent of the mix to 12 percent of the mix would be well out of bounds of what's necessary to achieve Paris Agreement goals.

So, the projection is coal and NG would still comprise 56% of our energy mix for electrical power even by 2050.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 15, 2019, 06:26:27 PM

All these renewable portfolio standards have intermediate goals (eg. 50% by 2030, 80% by 2040) with requirements in place. Some states do merely have renewable energy "goals", which are not binding, but those were put in place awhile ago before wind and solar become cost-effective. It's also not just states making these mandates. Utilities are self-imposing them, as well, even in traditionally moderate and conservative areas (XCel in Minnesota and Colorado, NIPSCO in Northern Indiana, NVE in Nevada, etc.).

I still believe that coal will be gone sooner than most people think. It's already gone from California's grid, where there is also basically no natural gas plants in the works (LA originally planned to build 3 new ones but energy storage systems proved to be more cost-effective).

Also, the EIA's projections are notoriously conservative. Even the oil & gas companies realize the energy transition will happen faster. The EIA is good for historical and current data but not future projections.

The Climate Strike by students was also today. It's encouraging that there's a substantial number of people born after 2000 (I feel old just typing that) that are aware of these issues and motivated to do something about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 07:13:23 PM

I guess I'm older and a lot more cynical about "claims" for the future.  I try and view things through the lens of hard reality and dollars and sense instead of wishful thinking.

When I was 25, I was sure we'd have landed on Mars by now, we're not even close.

We will be relying on NG and coal for a long long time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 15, 2019, 07:18:10 PM

The great thing abut Winter in the North is that it really slows down the passage of time for a few months. March-November just fly by, but Winter just sorta drags on and on after a while. If I lived in a warm climate year round I feel like the years, decades, etc would go by way too fast. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2019, 07:33:54 PM

We could be off coal and natural gas tomorrow if the current powers that be would profit from it.  But they won't, so we don't.  We're held hostage by traditional power-brokers in Washington/Wall Street.  Period.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 08:02:03 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2019, 01:35:52 PM

The GND is impossible.



1, we don't have enough money to make it feasible.


2, there is not enough manpower in the construction fields to make it happen (that number keeps dropping, as more people want art history degrees).



Can we make strides? Absolutely. I know this, because already have.

Option #2 is a significantly bigger hurdle than #1. That and having enough steel/concrete/resources is the stuff that actually matters for ambitious gov't programs. And labor can be corrected by reincentivizing trade school paths and "up-incentivizing" engineering.

Why is #1 less concerning? Mostly because the national debt isn't like civilian debt. When the US runs a deficit of $5, that means its citizens/corporations and infrastructure received a surplus of $5. They always balance. And though the Treasury has to be attentive to the balance, deficits and debt are not automatically "bad" unless it results in consequences like default or inflation.

First, let's get ahead of the first: Default ain't happening. Full stop. Politicians may claim there's a risk of "national bankrupcy" but that's true nonsense - just fear mongering to win. Second up: inflation can happen. It's the thing to watch like a hawk. But inflation pains are not likely in this environment. Just look at inflation changes since 2000. That's the last year we had a national budget surplus and it's the year when national debt was its lowest across many of our lives.

We've soared by trillions in debt since, and inflation hasn't been a bogeyman of ours. At least not yet. Because we appropriately adjust our interest rates and the Treasury has a very strong bond market to account for every deficit. And that's ignoring how our national assets (nearing $120 trillion) have climbed faster than our debts during these same years.

All of which are good arguments for taking on MORE debt than we have during good economic stretches. Because taking less debt is missing opportunities to strengthen our infrastructure and private sectors without real consequences. It's also a good argument that the average person misunderstands/overemphasizes national debts and deficits. Inflation signals are the ones to pay attention to  - not bankrupcy or "how will we ever pay China?" fear mongering.

Anyway, this isn't to say that the full GND as popularized so far can be paid for by taking on more debt. But we could definitely afford an intermediate version. We just need to find one (trivial), agree on it (impossible for now), and remember that US history already has a famous example of taking on New Deal debt to solve massive problems.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2019, 10:34:03 PM

We need more engineers and scientists, and less policy makers. The latter know nothing about which they speak (loudly).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 11:12:16 PM

We need many more physicians too. That won't help us here but there is a unifying thread that in an increasingly complex and specialized world, it's a real bear to keep up with human talent.

Here, I'm not even putting engineers and scientists on a pedestal as holy special people. Moreso I'm treating them as normal people with very special information and I'm claiming that our problem is an exponentially exploding doubling time of human knowledge. So recruiting and training everyone in time to keep The Brain growing (and actually make practical use of it) is a serious dilemma.

It makes me wonder about the future of knowledge creation and use. Why can't A.I. satisfy many (all?) scientific and engineering needs better than people? That's not rhetorical. I'm not trying to be cute; I don't know either way. And if A.I. can't, how will it be that people can?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2019, 04:18:12 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2019, 07:33:54 PM

We could be off coal and natural gas tomorrow if the current powers that be would profit from it.  But they won't, so we don't.  We're held hostage by traditional power-brokers in Washington/Wall Street.  Period.

Tomorrow?  Utilities are obviously highly regulated, but profit is a driver for them, as with all for profit enterprises.  You're basically saying wave a magic wand and somehow all that electricity production would be replaced overnight (or in a few years).  Profits are important in the real world where money doesn't grow on trees.
And obviously the infrastructure to build however many wind turbines overnight doesn't exist, nor does the land nor the transmission capabilities nor meeting baseline power requirements.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 16, 2019, 09:16:04 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 11:12:16 PM

We need many more physicians too. 

Now you tell me,I could have set my Field & Stream,Popular Mechanics down long enough to crack some manuals instead of beers.As long as Mom & Dad could pay some University to faff my SAT's & entrance exam

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 16, 2019, 02:34:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2019, 04:18:12 AM

Tomorrow?  Utilities are obviously highly regulated, but profit is a driver for them, as with all for profit enterprises.  You're basically saying wave a magic wand and somehow all that electricity production would be replaced overnight (or in a few years).  Profits are important in the real world where money doesn't grow on trees.
And obviously the infrastructure to build however many wind turbines overnight doesn't exist, nor does the land nor the transmission capabilities nor meeting baseline power requirements.

It obviously won't happen overnight, but the majority of new generation is wind and solar in most places, regardless of if/what the RPS is. There is also a lot of transmission projects being built from the Great Plains and Southwest to cities in CA, TX, and Midwest.
Most US states actually have more electricity generation capacity than they need but the increasing electrification of transportation (even if Tesla might be in trouble, but all the major automakers are producing more EVs) and other systems will result in increasing demand and utiliization of that capacity for electricity while oil demand falls off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 05:52:10 AM

Yes, oil demand likely will diminish, over time, same with coal and NG, over time.  Projections for what "over time" might mean are all over the place.

W&S are today minor contributors nationally, maybe 8% to the grid.  It takes time to replace installed capacity of coal and NG in part because the plants are paid for, one way or the other.  The capital needed to operate an existing coal plant is near zero, for however long they last.  It's fine to talk about all the new installed W&S capacity, but it needs to be put in context.  

There are two new power reactors going in near August, GA now, that could actually get finished after the usual massive cost overruns etc.  I thought they might kill it a while back, several times, but they are plowing ahead.  The economics of that don't look very good to me, but they do to someone.

Nuclear power is on the outs in Germany but France seems mostly content to stay the course while building more wind generation capacity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 08:18:39 AM

Probably enough hot air left over from the Fuhrer to drive those turbines

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 08:32:26 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2019, 04:18:12 AM

Tomorrow?  Utilities are obviously highly regulated, but profit is a driver for them, as with all for profit enterprises.  You're basically saying wave a magic wand and somehow all that electricity production would be replaced overnight (or in a few years).  Profits are important in the real world where money doesn't grow on trees.

I believe what he is hinting at is that the ways,means and ability is there now to start implementing the change.But they won't as long as they can wring a profit out of what is already in place.In a way I agree,Wall Street power brokers only think long term if it benefits their billfold.I'm sure there are those wanting to facilitate things for the greater good but the lobbyists seem to have hijacked common sense on Capitol Hill

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 08:42:31 AM

I thought we had already "started to implement change".  The "news" that profits drive action is not news obviously.  If you want Capitol Hill to intervene, what specifically would you like them to do?

Noting that for profit companies are FOR profit is not worth noting in my view.  IF wind is cheaper now than other sources, the grid will migrate to wind rather quickly and on its own without any incentives from CH.  The older coal and NG plants will be taken off line as wind comes on line, if it's cheaper.  However, that is something that is going to require many years before wind eliminates coal.  We'll have NG plants running in 30 years because they are so versatile and dependable.  I don't know where nuclear is headed, another accident and it could collapse rather quickly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 09:56:52 AM

For one I can see evidence of either price fixing or flat out monopolies in Utilities.Shit they went after John D. for back in the day.The sun supposedly burns more energy in one second than has been used on earth in forever.If this is accurate I find it hard to believe that there can't be a preliminary plan in place.Perhaps moving forward these Utilities realize maybe they won't hold all the cards.So why would they be in a rush to change anything.That maybe companies making turbines,solar panels or any of the other emerging technology will.Kind of odd how my natural gas and water bills have doubled/tripled in the last 5 years.Yet we have a glut of NG available and I live less than 2 miles from the Great Lakes.I like to get kissed before I'm screwed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 10:37:05 AM

Utilities are often termed "regulated monopolies".  There have been some changes in ability to buy power from others.  

I doubt anyone's NG prices have tripled over the past few years.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2478/natural-gas-prices-historical-chart

Those are "hub prices", not retail.  Maybe your utility is making a ton of money, but I doubt it.

Anyway, our sources of electricity are evolving, obviously.  It may be too slowly for some, but what specifically would make that happen faster and how would that help anything?

Cost-benefit analysis.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 17, 2019, 11:59:49 AM

There are many suggestions that dirty operations should be taxed to pay for cleanup, or to subsidize cleaner operations.  Seems logical enough.

But in practice tax revenue doesn't always go where it was ostensibly supposed to go, and special-purpose taxes don't always end when their ostensible purpose has been completed.

The federal government enacted a tax on long-distance telephone calls in 1898 to help pay for the Spanish-American War.  I'm pretty sure that war had long been paid for when the tax was repealed in 2002.

After WWII, Oklahomans voted for a toll road between Tulsa and Oklahoma City.  As sold to the public, the tolls were supposed to end when the construction costs were paid off.  Construction on the Turner Turnpike (later designated part of I-44) began in 1947 and were completed in 1953.  The tolls are still in place.

In 2004, Oklahomans voted to install a state lottery--a tax on the stupid--in order to fund public education.  It was advertised as the solution to education-funding shortfalls and political wrangling over said funding.  The lottery began in 2005, and is still going strong.  Public education--even after a big increase last year--now gets significantly less funding in constant dollars than it did 15 years ago.  There are two reasons for this: revenue has not come close to equaling the predictions made by proponents of the lottery; and the state legislature has reduced its discretionary funding of education to more than equal the increase produced by the lottery.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 03:42:54 PM

At least in theory, it can work if taxes are devoted by law to a Trust Fund, the way SS and the Fed. Highway Trust Fund operate.  Then the money by law can only be used for "X".

Virtually everyone is for a cleaner environment, but like everything, it comes down to cost-benefit ratios.  There is no getting around that.  Well, not unless you have nearly unlimited borrowing power and print your own money.  We could install a carbon  tax and use the proceeds to subsidize carbon neutral power, but it would have to be a whammo tax to make much of a difference, and we're part of the entire world in this.  We might do well on our own while China and India do little until 2030, and then not do much even then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 17, 2019, 07:28:52 PM

Utilities are structured differently depending on the state and region. I'll try to explain the basics:

Texas is fully deregulated meaning the utilities own absolutely no generation nor do they earn anything on electricity sales - they are only responsible for the transmission and distribution infrastructure. Independent power producers bid their energy into a wholesale market called ERCOT, and retail energy suppliers set the prices for customers. This creates competition at both ends and incentivizes the development of the best generation technologies. It just so happens that Texas has the most wind and fastest-growing market for solar.

At the other end of the spectrum are traditional regulated utilities that are monopolies. This is primarily the case in the Southeast and Western states aside from California. Electricity prices are determined by state public utility commissions, most if not all generation is owned by the utilities, and there is now alternative for the customers.

California is a rather unique case. They have a competitive wholesale market, but in many ways they are still a monopoly. However, municipalities can create their own utilities of sorts and procure energy separately. These are called community choice aggregations or CCAs for short. With the PG&E debacle, I expect this to take off and then the utilities would also just be responsible for the transmission and distribution infrastructure like in Texas. This is already about to happen for San Diego's utility, SDGE.

New England (ISONE) and New York (NYISO) also have their own wholesale markets, and customers have the option to buy energy from other companies. However, the utility remains the default supplier. Same is true in the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest (Ohio, Northern Illinois, and parts of Indiana) with PJM.

The rest of the Midwest (MISO), and areas surrounding Texas (SPP) have their own wholesale markets, as well, but the utilities are still the only option for customers.

Here's how the US electricity generation has changed over time. As you can see, the trends are pretty clear with coal dying, nuclear declining slower, while gas has taken off for now, and renewables are growing even faster. The Other is primarily hydro (using oil for generation is basically gone except for islands like Hawaii and Puerto Rico where it's also going away).
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=electricity_in_the_united_states. Again, the EIA is a very good source for historical data but its projections are questionable at best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 08:10:30 PM

Why are their projections any more questionable than anyone else's projections?

Whose projections are better, and what do they project?

Hawaii should be ideal for wind and solar, high cost as it is from burning oil and a lot of wind and sun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 08:11:47 PM

We spent two weeks on Bonaire a few years back (one week too long IMHO).  We were warned that we'd have brownouts in the afternoon and evening because they don't have adequate baseline power capacity and depend pretty heavily on wind.  It was annoying.  We're spoiled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 08:24:31 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 10:37:05 AM

I doubt anyone's NG prices have tripled over the past few years.

Contraire Pierre,My prices with the added charges on NG that the PUCO allowed have implemented almost doubled.As a matter of fact the 1st year of deregulation in Ohio I believe it was 1999,Dominion East Ohio Gas assured its customers this was a good thing.So many of us stuck with the gas company.Up until 1999 my highest heating bill for a winter month was in the brutal 1994 winter it was 96.00 for a month.The winter of 1999 - 2000.I had two bills of 300.00 and one at 280.00.That winter was average temps.Cincy - if I could have gotten my hands on their CEO or the hacks at the regulatory commission I'd be typing this from the Big House - that was Government sanctioned robbery.There was a royal uproar.It gets too involved to keep typing.Just so happens before that winter I had all new windows and insulation blew in.Government can't keep letting Robber Barons literally fleece the proletariat

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 17, 2019, 10:24:37 PM

EIA projections are off because they're very conservative. There have been many articles written about it, but they have consistently underestimated the deployment of wind and solar along with the retirement rate of coal plants. Their methodology is rather flawed because it doesn't account for cost reductions for wind & solar or policy, they overestimate electricity demand (presumably because they don't account for energy efficiency improvements, though it will increase once EV sales take off).... To be fair, there isn't a concensus on what the most reputable forecast is.

Hawaii is ideal for solar and offshore wind, which is why they were the first state to have a 100% RPS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 18, 2019, 12:28:28 AM

Anybody been to a wind farm?  They have some negative environmental impacts.  There's significant ecosystem degradation to the surface of the land on which they are built, and they kill a percentage of birds that migrate through their areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 18, 2019, 02:00:53 AM

I haven't walked around a wind farm but they're becoming so common that I've driven through countless. I've read of both problems. Those are obviously cons that have to be plugged into the cost-benefit analysis. The key step is to then compare them to the pros / cons for incinerating hydrocarbons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 07:50:25 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on March 18, 2019, 12:28:28 AM

Anybody been to a wind farm?  They have some negative environmental impacts.  There's significant ecosystem degradation to the surface of the land on which they are built, and they kill a percentage of birds that migrate through their areas.

I've worked on several. They are pretty ugly. And then there's that flicker thing. NIMBY.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2019, 09:18:41 AM

I was at a wind farm near Palm Springs, CA.  I noticed quite a high percentage of units (probably 10-15%) not functioning, and some (5% or so) obviously derelict, rusted with pieces lying around on the ground.  I was told it's cheaper to build a new one than fix an old one.  Our guide told us the main thing to fail is the transmission, which is a large part of the cost.  When it goes, they just leave the turbine out there doing nothing and build a new one for the tax credits.

He said GE was very bad about this.  I think part of the cost should be for clean up, if it breaks, you need to take it out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 09:34:14 AM

Yep, that stuff happens everywhere. With the lease rights as they are, the companies are free to do as they please on the leased properties. The farmers just have to deal with it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2019, 09:35:11 AM

32 and snowing on the North Coast.Tribe Opens up 2 weeks from today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 09:38:36 AM

We are finally in a string of "normal" days here. It feels a whole lot better than 2 weeks ago. Damn.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2019, 10:47:47 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 09:34:14 AM

Yep, that stuff happens everywhere. With the lease rights as they are, the companies are free to do as they please on the leased properties. The farmers just have to deal with it.

It seems simple enough to me to require that money be set aside for eventual dismantling, and possibly for maintenance and repairs as needed.  We could end up with thousands of derelict and ugly wind turbines in short order.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 11:28:33 AM

I did note while doing work on the recent application process for Illinois solar, it included a cost analysis. Demolition/decommissioning was a line item. So that's good, at least.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2019, 12:26:20 PM

https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/18/07/13/2349236/retiring-worn-out-wind-turbines-could-cost-billions-that-nobody-has

I'd insist on having a trust fund funded up front with new turbine builders.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 18, 2019, 09:31:51 PM

I've been through the wind farms at Palm Springs CA once and the one just north of West Lafayette multiple times, which are two of the largest in the country if not the world. I've been past smaller ones as well. Some of the turbines weren't spinning but most of them were. The capacity factor for wind is generally 30-40% (meaning, it produces an average of 30-40% of its potential capacity over the course of a year. Eg. a 1 MW turbine produces 0.4*8760 hours = 3504 MWh / year).

That said, unlike solar incentives, wind turbines are incentivized only based on production (NOT when they're developed), so the developers have much more incentive to ensure that they are maintained and kept online. However, wind turbine technicians are the most in-demand job in the country right now, and many of them are in rural areas like the Great Plains so there is probably a shortage of them, which may explain why some of you have noticed when they're not spinning.

However, it is also true that newer turbines have much higher capacity than older ones (ie. the towers are taller and the blades are longer), which is why I can see that constructing newer turbines could be more cost-effective than maintaining existing ones. Sometimes these old turbines get "repowered" with longer blades to increase their capacity, too, though.

As for environmental impact, the amount of birds killed by wind turbines is negligible compared to tall buildings, air pollution, house cats / other predators, and other factors. Countless studies have shown this despite what the conservative media says.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 07:31:56 AM

I noticed quite a few rusting and missing major parts, obviously not functioning for years, clearly derelict.

Others looked OK but were out of commission for whatever reason, probably just needing repairs.

I wonder what MTBF is for the newest ones might be.

It was a good location for them, strong steady winds blowing all the time through the pass it seemed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 07:33:07 AM

So, what is the likely US energy mix (presuming EIA is too conservative) for 2030 and 2050?

Presume two scenarios, one is "as is" and the other is "with government help".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 07:36:26 AM

https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2018/03/16/how-much-do-renewables-actually-depend-on-tax-breaks/

The tax credits for renewables (https://www.energy.gov/savings/business-energy-investment-tax-credit-itc) allow utility developers and homeowners to take 30 percent of the cost of a solar, wind or fuel cell project off their taxes. A 10 percent credit applies to other technologies such as geothermal and combined heat and power systems. Currently, most of the credits are scheduled to decrease and disappear by 2022.

Many states now require that a certain percentage of their electricity has to come from renewable sources, usually by a certain date. These “renewable portfolio standards” (http://ncsolarcen-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Renewable-Portfolio-Standards.pdf) vary: New York and California aim for 50 percent by 2030; Vermont targets 75 percent by 2032. Thirteen states have no standard.

“The growth [in wind and solar energy] is going to continue,” said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy (http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/) at Columbia and a member of the Earth Institute faculty. “It’s going to continue despite policy changes this administration has put into place, because the market forces are pretty powerful.” But, he added: “Twenty years from now…they will still be a relatively small portion of the energy mix.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 08:13:11 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on March 18, 2019, 09:31:51 PM

I've been through the wind farms at Palm Springs CA once and the one just north of West Lafayette multiple times, which are two of the largest in the country if not the world. I've been past smaller ones as well. Some of the turbines weren't spinning but most of them were. The capacity factor for wind is generally 30-40% (meaning, it produces an average of 30-40% of its potential capacity over the course of a year. Eg. a 1 MW turbine produces 0.4*8760 hours = 3504 MWh / year).

That said, unlike solar incentives, wind turbines are incentivized only based on production (NOT when they're developed), so the developers have much more incentive to ensure that they are maintained and kept online. However, wind turbine technicians are the most in-demand job in the country right now, and many of them are in rural areas like the Great Plains so there is probably a shortage of them, which may explain why some of you have noticed when they're not spinning.

However, it is also true that newer turbines have much higher capacity than older ones (ie. the towers are taller and the blades are longer), which is why I can see that constructing newer turbines could be more cost-effective than maintaining existing ones. Sometimes these old turbines get "repowered" with longer blades to increase their capacity, too, though.

As for environmental impact, the amount of birds killed by wind turbines is negligible compared to tall buildings, air pollution, house cats / other predators, and other factors. Countless studies have shown this despite what the conservative media says.

That's one of the sites I worked on. All I could think while working on that was "wow, this is massive" and "man, this is gonna be ugly".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 19, 2019, 08:28:25 AM

It's overwhelming when you drive up on it particular from the north on I-65, especially at night with the slow pulsating red lights as far as the eye can see in every direction.   

Ever get behind one as it is being delivered? Talk about a wide load.   They struggle to make the cloverleaf turns on an interchange.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 08:41:34 AM

Yeah, part of the issue with constructing these wind farms is what you have to do to the surrounding roads. As they generally exist, there is no way you're getting even one of those monsters delivered. Intersections had to be widened to accommodate the turning radii of the delivery vehicles, for example. Another is the load capacity. Soil conditions. Blah blah blah.




Stuff people don't consider. You know, the stuff I do.




  :67:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 08:46:31 AM

Soil is over rated.  You just drive and it will probably be fine.  Maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 08:49:23 AM

Yep.

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.chicagomag.com%2Fwhet%2Fsinkhole.jpg%3Fver%3D1366297953&hash=53dd14ebb23f0488cf032d7d989bfc25)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 08:58:31 AM

Is that a typical pothole in Illinois these days?  

I've noticed the bad pavement around here is mostly due to its being dug up to run new whatevers and then poorly patched.  The freeway to the airport is concrete surfaced and original from whenever it was built, probably about 1966.  I don't know the cost differential for concrete vs asphalt, but it seems to last forever in this climate.

A few sections had been redone here and there.

The Downtown Connector here is asphalt, and it is pretty amazing to see from the 17th Street bridge.  This is what it was in about 1980:

(https://www.ajc.com/rf/image_widescreen/Pub/p6/AJC/2015/11/10/Images/photos.medleyphoto.8374904.jpg)

Notice the lack of any acceleration ramps, and not much traffic.

(https://www.ajc.com/rf/image_inline/Pub/p6/AJC/2015/09/03/Images/photos.medleyphoto.8095065.jpg)

This is the NB side today on a typical afternoon.  It is to be avoided.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 09:00:43 AM

Speaking of weather, sometimes it rains here, a lot:

(https://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/lg/public/2015/05/31/flooding.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 09:07:49 AM

I gave a presentation on dams and levees last week, to a group of local business leaders. I'm thinking my talk is gonna stay with them for a while now, given that a dam failed yesterday, and levees are being breached on a daily basis.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 09:14:19 AM

Are you still saying humans can't effectively fight massive rivers with enormous drainage areas?

All we need is a huge wall on each bank, maybe 100 feet high, composed of carbon fiber reinforced plastic with a 1 foot foundation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 09:18:27 AM

Sand bags, man. Sand bags!!



And don't forget to duct tape your windows.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 09:37:19 AM

What about the barrier islands off the Atlantic coast?  Would it make sense to build nice beach homes on sand there?

Somewhere I read many of them are only 10,000 years old, and most are shifting south or north rapidly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 09:49:47 AM

I wouldn't touch that. There are plenty of places to build homes, without that risk. Sand flows.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2019, 10:46:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 09:00:43 AM

Speaking of weather, sometimes it rains here, a lot:

CD was that picture taken from your condo?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:08:22 AM

No, I found it on line.  I look outside my office and see the park.

https://www.google.com/maps/uv?hl=en&pb=!1s0x88f504395064ac19:0xf3aeea4ef52f350e!2m22!2m2!1i80!2i80!3m1!2i20!16m16!1b1!2m2!1m1!1e1!2m2!1m1!1e3!2m2!1m1!1e5!2m2!1m1!1e4!2m2!1m1!1e6!3m1!7e115!4shttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipP4liIZyYwRU3o6H4r52Dy8pyQtndJc3ucLelKe%3Dw363-h240-k-no!5spiedmont+park+-+Google+Search&imagekey=!1e10!2sAF1QipP4liIZyYwRU3o6H4r52Dy8pyQtndJc3ucLelKe&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjm8fjGvY7hAhUFPN8KHYGjD14QoiowFnoECAQQBg

That's a view from the park looking back our way.  I'll be over there soon once it warms up a bit.  

(https://www.wheretraveler.com/sites/default/files/styles/wt17_promoted_large/public/images/PiedmontPark-volleyball_c-JamesDuckworth-ATLPhotos.jpg?itok=mbLlBuo1&timestamp=1427230141)

That is where I jog, around the fields.  It used to be a horse track back in the day.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:11:32 AM

(https://broadstonemidtown.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Piedmont-Park-Atlanta-Things-to-Do-1000x500.jpg)

The "Connector" (freeway) is to our west about 10 blocks or so.  Fortunately I can snag a feeder road to get on I-75 north.  If I have to go south I usually wend my way through back streets.  The proximity to the park really sold us on this place.  

(https://www.piedmontpark.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/piedmont-park.jpg)

Parks are good, I'm donating to their conservancy in addition to picking up trash when I go.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 19, 2019, 11:35:09 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on March 18, 2019, 09:31:51 PM

As for environmental impact, the amount of birds killed by wind turbines is negligible compared to tall buildings, air pollution, house cats / other predators, and other factors. Countless studies have shown this despite what the conservative media says.

Negligible numbers, countless studies, and conservative media notwithstanding, the first site listed when I googled "how many birds do wind turbines kill" is the Audubon Society, which estimates 180,000 to 328,000 birds killed by wind farms in North America each year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:35:35 AM

(https://www.piedmontpark.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Atlanta-Skyline-Piedmont-Park.jpg)

This is a nice one looking SW with midtown down to where that tall spire is and then downtown beyond that.  The spire is the Bank of America building.  This must be 2-3 years old now.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:42:30 AM

This is something I've mentioned before, a simple but brilliant concept that has succeeded beyond anyone's imaginings I suspect, still under construction:

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-DW573_072914_G_20140729102319.jpg)

The "Beltline" is a 23 mile loop around downtown and midtown, some of which is to get light rail someday.  Right now it's just a concrete paved path and the amount of new construction going up near it is amazing to me.  It runs just to the east of the Park above.

https://beltline.org/

There are new restaurants popping up all along it, you can sit on the patio and eat and drink and people watch, a bit like San Antonio without the water.  It has to be paying off for the city big time.

https://www.atlanta.net/things-to-do/outdoors/beltline/

On weekends, it's almost something to avoid because it gets so crowded.  We use it to walk over to Ponce City Market and restaurants near there.

https://poncecitymarket.com/

That is the old (1926) Sears building.  When we first moved here that was THE Sears, the only one in town.  On weekends it's a total packed mess, but it's not bad on weekdays.

I like it here, you may be getting the notion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 19, 2019, 01:53:26 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on March 19, 2019, 11:35:09 AM

Negligible numbers, countless studies, and conservative media notwithstanding, the first site listed when I googled "how many birds do wind turbines kill" is the Audubon Society, which estimates 180,000 to 328,000 birds killed by wind farms in North America each year.

I won't say that isn't a large number, but looking at it on its own is not very informative. Which isn't to say to you are being sensational; just that this isn't enough to have a productive conversation. For ex: What are the bird populations in North America? How many are killed by other means, such as striking other structures? And what would be the numbers on bird/animal killings if the energy produced by wind farms were produced by something dirtier instead -- both short term (pollution) and long term (climate change)? 
Comparisons, trends, and clusters of numbers do more to tell us about the real world than one data point in a vacuum.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2019, 02:05:15 PM

I know reflective glass in office buildings(to save energy) takes out a lot of birds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 19, 2019, 08:30:01 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on March 19, 2019, 01:53:26 PM

I won't say that isn't a large number, but looking at it on its own is not very informative. Which isn't to say to you are being sensational; just that this isn't enough to have a productive conversation. For ex: What are the bird populations in North America? How many are killed by other means, such as striking other structures? And what would be the numbers on bird/animal killings if the energy produced by wind farms were produced by something dirtier instead -- both short term (pollution) and long term (climate change)?
Comparisons, trends, and clusters of numbers do more to tell us about the real world than one data point in a vacuum.

I agree.
But I never compared or implied a comparison.  I just posted that a percentage of migratory birds who fly through wind farms are killed.  Apparently this is true.
That was in support of my point that while wind energy doesn't add CO2 to the atmosphere, it does have environmental impacts.
I didn't see that as a controversial point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 19, 2019, 10:04:04 PM

Ah, cool. If you didn't mean it as controversial, then I don't see a controversy either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 20, 2019, 12:18:15 PM

There's something everyday people could do that would help in a small way--stop drinking bottled water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2019, 12:27:46 PM

I'll drink to that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 20, 2019, 12:52:08 PM

It's helpful to have durable reusable containers for food and water. It doesn't have to be Pyrex or a Nalgene. It just has to last for years before ending up in the landfill, and of course you'd have to have the habit of using it instead of single-use plastic/styrofoam. Conveniently, this helps individuals save money in addition to being a lesser burden on the environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2019, 01:43:30 PM

Coke and Pepsi were late to the bottled water craze, I think because no one there could believe it was more than a fad.  Of course, they purify large quantities of water to make their soft drinks, so it was trivial for them to expand their RO capacity, add some minerals, and cash in on this craze.  The wife drinks bottled water, but she reuses containers at least.

I don't know how much of that plastic gets recycled, but it isn't much.  The plastic is not the same as in milk jugs, for example, so they shouldn't get mixed, but do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2019, 01:46:13 PM

I lived through the "we're running out of landfills" back in the late 1980s and 1990s.  The word came down that anything new had to be compostable, which posed quite the challenge for us polymer types.  We had some interesting, and useless projects during the day, and I got into quite a bit of political trouble because I took on - inadvertently - some BIG VPs who had a lot of skin in the game, and game it was, and I was small fry.  The fact I was right didn't save me.

I clung to "being right" for too long of course, being a stubborn mule.  I really did get in serious career trouble that took years to shake off.  For being right.

All that burfle disappeared rather quietly 2-3 years after I surfaced the facts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2019, 10:00:13 PM

many times, it's detrimental to prove that you are the smartest guy in the room - by being correct

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2019, 10:02:09 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on March 20, 2019, 12:18:15 PM

There's something everyday people could do that would help in a small way--stop drinking bottled water.

“Hear, hear”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2019, 11:50:05 AM

Back when I was in school, I took an environmental engineering course. Part of that course included garbage and recycling, etc. At that time, the professor estimated that only 20 percent of the materials placed in the "recycle bins" were actually being recycled.


I'm guessing that is up to about 40 percent now. Maybe a bit higher or lower??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2019, 12:23:34 PM

My guess would be 10% of the stuff in any recycle bin is actually recycled.  We have twp dumpsters outside, one for trash and one for recycle.  The stuff inside the recycle bin is mostly cardboard, but mixed in with a LOT of packaging and plastic bottles and film and whatever.  Now, perhaps this all gets thrown on a line somewhere with humans picking out what can be reused.  I've seen one such line in Cincy back circa 1995, nearly all of it went to landfill.  They would not even pull out a bottle with a cap on it because the materials are different.

And the line went really fast, so even Al cans would pass the workers.  At that time, NO newsprint was recycled, zero, it had negative value.  No magazines, not paper, none of that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:25:36 AM

https://archive.epa.gov/epawaste/nonhaz/municipal/web/html/

"In 2013, newspapers/mechanical papers recovery was about 67 percent (5.4 million tons), and about 60 percent of yard trimmings were recovered (Figure 3). Organic materials continue to be the largest component of MSW. Paper and paperboard account for 27 percent and yard trimmings and food account for another 28 percent. Plastics comprise about 13 percent; metals make up 9 percent; and rubber, leather, and textiles account for 9 percent. Wood follows at around 6 percent and glass at 5 percent. Other miscellaneous wastes make up approximately 3 percent of the MSW generated in 2013 (Figure 4)."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:27:29 AM

https://www.rubiconglobal.com/blog-statistics-trash-recycling/

1. Nine-tenths of all solid waste in the United States does not get recycled.
2. Landfills are among the biggest contributors to soil pollution – roughly 80% of the items buried in landfills could be recycled.
3. Although 75% of America’s waste is recyclable, we only recycle around 30% of it. Turns out, there are a few easy steps you can take to start recycling better (https://www.rubiconglobal.com/blog-golden-rules-recycling/).
4. A single recycled plastic bottle saves enough energy to run a 100-watt bulb for 4 hours. It also creates 20% less air pollution and 50% less water pollution than would be created when making a new bottle.
5. Recycling plastic saves twice as much energy as it takes to burn it.
6. It only takes 5 recycled plastic bottles to make enough fiberfill to stuff a ski jacket.
7. Motor oil never wears out, it just gets dirty – and it can be recycled.  (Not precisely true.)
8. The U.S. recycling rate is around 34.5%. If we’re able to get the rate to 75%, the effect will be like removing 50 million passenger cars from U.S. roads.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:29:20 AM

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/plastic-produced-recycling-waste-ocean-trash-debris-environment/

A whopping 91% of plastic isn't recycled

Billions of tons of plastic have been made over the past decades, and much of it is becoming trash and litter, finds the first analysis of the issue.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:35:38 AM

Plastic of course is a broad term for a host of different materials, which is part of the problem.  Most of it is polyethylene, which itself comes in different versions, though they are chemically the same (in basic composition).  Milk jugs are PE.  Then there is polypropylene, milk jug caps are PP.  You don't want PE mixed in with PP if you are recycling.

Then there is PET for short, which makes up the bottles of water and Coke we buy.  The caps are PP.  PET also makes up the polyester in the shirts we wear (polycotton is a blend).

Packaging material is polystyrene foam, something very different from the above chemically.  It takes up a lot of volume when it is 'foamed".  Dow Chemical doesn't like it when we call packaging material Styrofoam, but we do.  They are in Michigan anyway.

And there are "tons" more types, but those are the main ones, unless I'm forgetting something which is likely.  Polyurethane is one more that can be hard or soft depending on which kind it is.  Those spray cans we use to insulate tight areas are polyurethane foam.  A lot of the hard plastic that makes up stuff is PU.

IF you can get a stream that is source separated, you have something you can recycle rather easily, but if it is a mixture, good luck.  It does no good if YOU separate the items nicely and they get thrown on the same truck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 08:05:14 AM

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/risks-rewards-possible-ramifications-geoengineering-earths-climate-180971666/?linkId=65003923&fbclid=IwAR25wI4eVbC7tNYTsu8bWdUYBzd2gsnTBpIYO81YPqDNN7Ut-tn3JVm_jX0

Sounds risky to me at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 23, 2019, 08:20:09 AM

Thanx CD,I've been almost O.C.D.(pun intended)about recycling for at least 2 decades.Even before residential curbside or commercial pick up.Use to place an extra recycling can in the lunch room at work and at home fortunately we had recycling centers in the area.I'd give my metal cans an such to friends who when they collectd a whole load would turn it in for a little coin - car parts,duct work metal shelving,mounting brackets etc.I was surprised by how much one center gave us for old platic stackable chairs and white buckets/lids and such

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 09:00:24 AM

I used to collect aluminum cans back when we drank more soft drinks.  I'd get $5 or so for a large bag.  As I read more about the health effects of Coke etc., I cut everyone off in my family with rare exceptions, and I don't drink beer from cans.  

Most of the plastic waste in the oceans comes from Asia, so nothing we do here is going to help.  The US is pretty good about waste disposal (not perfect obviously).  We have a problem with tires which is largely hidden from public view.  I think to recycle effectively plastic bottles we need a 5 cent per tax that is refunded on return.  You could have return kiosks that read the bar codes and separated the plastic by type and then crushed the mess when the container starts to get full.    That would help with soda/water bottles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2019, 09:49:43 AM

recycling helps most folks feel good about their effort

try not to ruin it for them, please

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 23, 2019, 10:48:19 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 09:00:24 AM

 and I don't drink beer from cans.  

Really - years ago brewers started lining the cans with a waxy substance to cut out that metal taste.The one advantage of cans is blocking light.It has been proven by many blind taste tests that bottles left out even under artificial lighting negatively affects the taste.That makes me feel good about those efforts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2019, 10:53:12 AM

I've often wondered whether or not wine and booze bottles recycle. Not sure why, but I wonder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 03:27:42 PM

We took another long walk today.  They are having some kind of "science fair" thing in the park, it was packed with youngsters.  I sort of glanced at some of the booths.  Meh.

We then walked south looking for somewhere new to have lunch and went all the way to where Tech has built up across the freeway.  Ate gyros, pretty good, and found a place called Bytes after we ate that was pretty neat, gonna try that sometime.  Perfect weather, warmish in the sun and a touch cool in the shade, zero clouds, lots of stuff blooming, a lot of people out and about, several restaurants were packed on their patio areas.  

https://www.bytesrestaurant.com/home

Each table has an iPad and you just order using that.  

I know the midsection got severe floods, I'm sorry for them.  They obviously need more dykes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2019, 08:00:42 PM

really shouldn't drink beer from anything but a glass, after being poured into the glass from the container to release the head

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 23, 2019, 08:54:21 PM

I'd far rather drink straight from the bottle than pour it into a separate glass. I chase every bit of bite I can get, and pouring beer into a glass seeds too much CO2 gas. My goal is to keep that in solution, so emptying a beer into a glass kind of ruins its flavor for me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 23, 2019, 09:30:18 PM

Craft brewers also love the cans, way less cost to ship than bottles.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 23, 2019, 11:14:47 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2019, 10:53:12 AM

I've often wondered whether or not wine and booze bottles recycle. Not sure why, but I wonder.

I took a bunch of glass bottles to a recycling point the other day.  There were three bins in which to put them; one for clear, another for green, another for brown.  The green glass included--as far as I could tell--all wine bottles no matter how much more brown than green their brownish-green color seemed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 23, 2019, 11:25:57 PM

There is an EPA Superfund cleanup site in NE Oklahoma.  The place is "Tar Creek," and there used to be zinc and lead mines there, and the chat piles outside the mines contaminated rainwater and ultimately the ground water.  There has been some success using mushrooms to pull heavy metals out of the groundwater.

A couple of similar articles in the Tulsa World.

https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/secret-weapon-to-get-heavy-metals-from-tar-creek-compost/article_323eff40-0884-5f91-ae39-cc35f8396500.html (https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/secret-weapon-to-get-heavy-metals-from-tar-creek-compost/article_323eff40-0884-5f91-ae39-cc35f8396500.html)

https://www.tulsaworld.com/epa-mushroom-compost-removes-pollutants-from-tar-creek-site/article_37368dd9-7f74-5b6d-9ec0-a029c2b6469d.html (https://www.tulsaworld.com/epa-mushroom-compost-removes-pollutants-from-tar-creek-site/article_37368dd9-7f74-5b6d-9ec0-a029c2b6469d.html)

Mickey Mantle's father--"Mutt" Mantle--worked in some of these mines.  He died of Hodgkin's disease at age 40.  I don't know if his work had anything to do with his early death.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 07:35:44 AM

What do you do with the mushrooms after they are contaminated?

Superfund sites are real problems.  They often just get brownfielded, as the funds are not there to clean up any but the very worst.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 08:15:13 AM

Circa 1990, composting of waste was supposed to be the "solution".  Some smaller cities set up municipal solid waste composting operations.  They were failing as fast as new ones opened, I would guess none exist today (they do compost yard waste, a very good change).  Problem 1 was malodor and Problem 2 was cost.  When things degrade without oxygen, they stink.  If you've ever left a pile of grass clippings around for any period of time you know what I mean.

And of course MSW contains batteries, heavy metals, and all sorts of "garbage".  That leads to "leachate", the liquid goo that gets generated.  That leachate often is contaminated and toxic and has to be ... collected and managed.  We had a pretty large drum composter where I worked for experiments.  The materials added were tightly controlled, no batteries etc. and it worked, it took a lot of energy to turn it, I'd guess it was 10 feet diameter and 25 feet long.  They used as ingredients shredded paper, dog food, ground glass, and some mulch, and we'd add a few percent of our material to test what happened to it.

This is great for yard waste IF you can turn and aerate the material fairly often.  Not so for MSW, nor is burning it a good idea, that releases stuff into the air we don't want in the air.

This is where I got into trouble.  I started reading up on composting facilities and noted how many closed and how few were being started and published a report on that (internally).  I didn't think anyone would read it, but apparently it got kicked up to high levels.  I got some very angry emails that copied my boss and his boss and his boss.  My boss' boss caught me at lunch and said "Whatever you do, DO NOT RESPOND to any emails on this, let me deal with it."  He later told me I had initiated a fire storm that could only happen because my facts were correct, but it went against a very public program we had going on and some VP types had staked their careers on this.

It took about another two years before all the programs we had in R&D were shit down, mine was last to go.  I got transferred to a place I did not want to go after being asked 3 times if I wanted to go there.  I was also on the edge of a nice promotion which was delayed 7 years as a result.

Don't be a round peg if they have square holes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2019, 09:23:35 AM

I've worked on a few Superfund cleanup sites in the past. Bureaucracy is the major problem. I figure I could have been done in about 1/3 the time if took to get through all the red tape, for about 1/3 of the money. Government doesn't allow for speedy solutions. If it did, about 50 percent of the government "workers" would be more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2019, 09:36:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 07:35:44 AM

What do you do with the mushrooms after they are contaminated?

Superfund sites are real problems.  They often just get brownfielded, as the funds are not there to clean up any but the very worst.

I'd like to know about this too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2019, 09:47:45 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on March 23, 2019, 08:54:21 PM

I'd far rather drink straight from the bottle than pour it into a separate glass. I chase every bit of bite I can get, and pouring beer into a glass seeds too much CO2 gas. My goal is to keep that in solution, so emptying a beer into a glass kind of ruins its flavor for me.

I dunno years ago I was at one of the local Oktoberfests thrown by some the local craft brewers.I was talking to one of the brewers and he suggested the opposite.Pour the beer straight down the middle of the quaffing vessel to produce as much head as possible,let sit then repeat until full.I know they do this with Guinness on St.Paddy's Day but probably to get a head start ;D.His rationale was this releases much of the CO2/gas getting the true taste of the product - seemed the rest of those guys were doing the same.I've been doing that ever since and I think they're right
                                                                                                                                                    :singing:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 10:04:58 AM

How you pour your beer is a personal choice depending on how much carbonation you like.  

Champagne should be opened to preserve as much as possible, the cork should make a slight whoosh, not a boom, and nothing should come out of the bottle.  This takes some practice.  Pouring Champagne is more varied.  I use a glass designed for chardonnay for obviously reasons, not a flute.  I pour a small amount in each glass and then pour to bring up to a third of the volume and serve.  This limits decarbonation.  

The Champagne district makes a small amount of still wine, I've never had one.  It probably tastes somewhat like Chablis.  The carbonation is basically because the still wines from that area are not very good (it's to the north of nearly all wine grape growing regions).

Chablis is interesting to visit, not far from Paris.  There is a discrete line you can see where the region starts and ends, across the line is pasture, mostly, and inside is grape vines (some of which is Petite Chablis).  There is an outcropping of limestone that makes the region prized.

The growers worry that climate change may change their terroir and they can't move north to compensate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 24, 2019, 10:06:02 AM

@MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) - I know that. But I don't like beer for the reasons other people do. We've talked about this. People typically want beer to be balanced and mild. I want to be kicked in the mouth. So I want the hoppiest IPA imaginable. And straight from the bottle. Anything that reduces the kick reduces my enjoyment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 24, 2019, 10:42:50 AM

So you must love HopSlam, which is a Michigan brewery.    Did you pick some up this winter?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 11:00:55 AM

I like balance in beer, and wine.  When I was teaching wine classes, that was one of my main points (another was to enjoy what YOU like, not what someone says is good).

The best wines I've had were hard to describe, they weren't this or that, unless I make up stuff to sound good, they were balanced, and good.  American wine makers got on a kick of making overly alcoholic wine, or tannic wine, or woody wine, or buttery wine, or fruity wine, or whatever, instead of balance.  It's good for marketing.

It may be harder to "enjoy" and reflect on a wine that has balance instead of some in your face attribute, like "blueberries" or "chocolate" or a "soupcon of asparagus".

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/af7e02ee-edb2-4a0d-abfb-3702d751671c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CIRq5QG0bU

The book was better than the movie.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2019, 11:04:02 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on March 23, 2019, 08:54:21 PM

I'd far rather drink straight from the bottle than pour it into a separate glass. I chase every bit of bite I can get, and pouring beer into a glass seeds too much CO2 gas. My goal is to keep that in solution, so emptying a beer into a glass kind of ruins its flavor for me.

well, as you know the CO2 is going to get out somehow, I don't mind a little belching and farting while drinking beer
everyone has their own taste preference.  Brewers aim for the taste gained by releasing the head.  Most of this taste is of course promoted by the odor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2019, 11:50:22 AM

(https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/8c53c18/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F0b%2F2e%2Ffb1ee39249c4a6a31e82617e8d45%2Fnoaa-flood.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 24, 2019, 01:28:18 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on March 24, 2019, 10:42:50 AM

So you must love HopSlam, which is a Michigan brewery.    Did you pick some up this winter?

I love most Michigan IPAs. Hopslam counts. Ditto Humalupaliscious and Founders Centennial and All Day. But Two-Hearted is my favorite of Michigan and my favorite overall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2019, 09:53:33 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on March 24, 2019, 10:06:02 AM

@MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) - I know that. But I don't like beer for the reasons other people do. We've talked about this. People typically want beer to be balanced and mild. I want to be kicked in the mouth. So I want the hoppiest IPA imaginable. And straight from the bottle. Anything that reduces the kick reduces my enjoyment.

IPA's aren't on my radar,so I don't think about them,prolly why I don't recall.Don't get me wrong I'll have one if a warm Natty Lite or Milwaukee's Best isn't available 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 07:28:58 AM

We're headed to Boston during what probably is the nicest weather of the year around here with dogwoods and azaleas starting to bloom (think the Masters).  The NE part of ATL is replete with very ritzy older homes with some serious landscaping that has been there for decades.  It's something to see and the wife would enjoy that.

But Boston calls (long story).  Bummer.  I may take a couple road trips to adjoining states I've never visited.

Checking boxes etc.  Boston weather forecast is "OK' at least five days out.  Weather here forecast is spectacular.  We're 14°F warmer at the moment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 25, 2019, 12:42:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 07:35:44 AM

What do you do with the mushrooms after they are contaminated?

Superfund sites are real problems.  They often just get brownfielded, as the funds are not there to clean up any but the very worst.

Re-reading the articles, I see that I misstated the point about mushrooms.  It is mushroom compost--mushrooms grown on a chicken-litter-and-hay compost, then composted themselves--that is used to filter the contaminated water in ponds.  Each pond takes in water at the top and exits it below the compost layer into the next pond.  The ponds in total are cleaning about half a million gallons of contaminated water a day, but contaminated water is going to be coming out of the abandoned mines for a long time.  The compost is supposed to last 20 years or more.  After that, it will have to be "stored."  Where that storage will be has not yet been determined.
The area is certainly a large brownfield now, and will probably remain that way for many more decades.  Most of the state money in the cleanup has gone to relocate the former inhabitants of the area.
I didn't know this before, but it's part of a larger tri-state project that also includes SE Kansas and SW Missouri.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 01:03:09 PM

Cleaning contaminated water is "easy" but can require a lot of energy depending on how it's done.

I could think of better (IMHO) filtration materials than mushroom compost in terms of volume of material you end up with.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 25, 2019, 01:31:59 PM

It does seem like a bulky filtration medium.  Maybe it's good because either (A) it's cheap, (B) it's effective, or (C) doesn't require much energy.

The metals they're trying to remove are lead, zinc, cadmium, nickel, and iron, and it seems like each pond or series of ponds is designed to concentrate on one metal.  I don't know if mushrooms are better than some alternatives given that design.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 01:59:33 PM

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1878535210001334

Useful article on the different methods of heavy metal removal.  

"Various low-cost adsorbents (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/adsorbent), derived from agricultural waste, industrial (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/industrial-waste) by-product, natural material, or modified biopolymers (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/biopolymer), have been recently developed and applied for the removal of heavy metals from metal-contaminated wastewater. In general, there are three main steps involved in pollutant sorption onto solid sorbent (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/sorbent): (i) the transport of the pollutant from the bulk solution to the sorbent surface; (ii) adsorption on the particle surface; and (iii) transport within the sorbent particle. Technical applicability and cost-effectiveness are the key factors that play major roles in the selection of the most suitable adsorbent to treat inorganic effluent."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 25, 2019, 02:22:17 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2019, 11:50:22 AM

(https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/8c53c18/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F0b%2F2e%2Ffb1ee39249c4a6a31e82617e8d45%2Fnoaa-flood.jpg)

The purple area along the Missouri River extends into NW Missouri and NE Kansas.  That includes my last Army post, Fort Leavenworth.  I've been getting some pictures from a couple of former colleagues there.
Here are a few.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.2/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.2)
Here the Platte River is above the bottom of the BNSF railroad bridge.  So far not too much flotsam has piled up against the bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.4/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.4)
These are RR tracks descending into the flood waters, vicinity of Waldron, MO.  Waldron is just to the north of where I-435 crosses the Missouri River from Kansas into Missouri.  The BNSF tracks go below the Interstate bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.5/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.5)
There are RR tracks down there somewhere.  Under the closest stretch of water, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 03:28:50 PM

Why would anyone build RR tracks under water?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 25, 2019, 10:59:17 PM

Regarding the subject of recycling, I think going away from regular plastics for bioplastics and other recyclables while advancing waste-to-energy systems, composting, and anaerobic digestion, is the only real solution. Then, electronic waste and other waste containing metals remains the big issue.

Not to beat a dead horse, but another major study released today shows that most existing coal plants are already uneconomic compared to new wind & solar, even if you have to site the wind or solar plant in the same vicinity (which does reduce the need to invest in new transmission infrastructure, to be sure). Here's one of many articles about it:  https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/25/business/coal-solar-wind-renewable-energy/index.html

Case in point - Michigan's utility that covers most of non metro Detroit is the latest utility phasing out coal for renewables: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/consumers-energy-to-seek-5-gw-of-solar-by-2030-under-clean-energy-plan#gs.2gu3uh

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 25, 2019, 11:28:00 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 03:28:50 PM

Why would anyone build RR tracks under water?

To go with the whiskey the Engineers drinking?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2019, 07:49:34 AM

Not a fan of bioplastics, at least not the current stuff.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2019, 08:25:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2019, 07:49:34 AM

Not a fan of bioplastics, at least not the current stuff.  

Nor am I. 
My household has made a fairly solid effort to not buy any plastic. "Any" is not realistic. It would be next to impossible to not buy "any" plastic. Even the paper milk containers have plastic spouts on them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 26, 2019, 09:00:27 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2019, 11:04:02 AM

well, as you know the CO2 is going to get out somehow, I don't mind a little belching and farting while drinking beer.

You don't wanna drink in an enclosed space with AC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2019, 10:14:29 AM

I've got answers for the "tough questions" that follow.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/breaches-everywhere-midwest-levees-burst-and-tough-questions-follow/ar-BBVrOxo?li=BBnb7Kz

‘Breaches Everywhere’: Midwest Levees Burst, and Tough Questions Follow

MITCH SMITH, JOHN SCHWARTZ and TIM GRUBER
2 hrs ago

This is from the NY Times, but you can't read it there without a subscription. So, I linked the MSN feed.


(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBVrFfF.img?h=1080&w=1920&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBVrDg1.img?h=1080&w=1920&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBVrDg9.img?h=1080&w=1920&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)

 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/war-of-words-over-jussie-smollett-hoax-case-erupts-again-in-chicago/ar-BBVqiAt?li=BBnb7Kz)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 10:18:40 AM

there were a few dams that blew out as well

worst flooding in my lifetime

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on March 31, 2019, 12:25:05 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on March 25, 2019, 02:22:17 PM

The purple area along the Missouri River extends into NW Missouri and NE Kansas.  That includes my last Army post, Fort Leavenworth.  I've been getting some pictures from a couple of former colleagues there.
Here are a few.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.2/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.2)
Here the Platte River is above the bottom of the BNSF railroad bridge.  So far not too much flotsam has piled up against the bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.4/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.4)
These are RR tracks descending into the flood waters, vicinity of Waldron, MO.  Waldron is just to the north of where I-435 crosses the Missouri River from Kansas into Missouri.  The BNSF tracks go below the Interstate bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.5/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.5)
There are RR tracks down there somewhere.  Under the closest stretch of water, I think.

Yep, all the RRs in Nebraska and Iowa have been hit pretty hard with the recent flooding. In one of my BNSF RR employee groups I've been privy to quite a few pics of the destruction specifically related to the RR tracks. 
Thankfully in my territory all I have to worry about is the occasional summer flash flood at a few specific bridges we go over. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 31, 2019, 12:38:40 PM

Keep the shiny side up and the dirty side down, D-Frog!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2019, 01:11:20 PM

Got down to 26 deg last nite with 3"-4"on the car this morning.Winter has been hanging around a long damn time - Opening Day is tomorrow :D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 01:22:48 PM

better you than me

50 degrees here this afternoon and sunny

snow is gone

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 01:25:34 PM

The rapidly dropping cost of renewable energy has upended energy economics in recent years, with new solar and wind plants now significantly cheaper than coal power.

But new research shows another major change is afoot: The cost of batteries has been declining so unexpectedly rapidly that renewables plus battery storage are now cheaper than even natural gas plants in many applications, according to a report released this week by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-coal-natural-gas-a3828fd843cb/amp/ (https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-coal-natural-gas-a3828fd843cb/amp/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2019, 01:41:26 PM

Not a good source there...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 01:52:13 PM

a bit political

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 01, 2019, 07:58:23 PM

The politics in that article are extraneous and just should've been left out.

The other points are all valid and are things I've stated before. It won't be too much longer until natural gas plants peak and are no longer built. They won't retire as fast as coal plants are, but they're already in decline in California and the same will happen elsewhere before long. Energy storage technologies are not only more cost-effective but easier and faster to deploy, because they can be developed pretty much anywhere at any capacity from small residential Tesla Powerwalls like Green Mountain Power in Vermont is doing to Florida Power & Light's recently announced 400+ MW system (it won't be long until 1 GW scale systems are being developed, either).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 08:08:01 PM

Elon Musk to be given credit?? or is he just the media hog?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 01, 2019, 08:49:00 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 08:08:01 PM

Elon Musk to be given credit?? or is he just the media hog?

Musk deserves a lot of credit for expediting the growth of the electric vehicle market. Before Tesla started, none of the major automakers were seriously pursuing it. Now they all are, and they know that EVs (along with autonomous driving) are the future. It's just a matter of when at this point. The EV market has still taken off faster in China and parts of Europe, aside from California, but it won't be too long before they take off in other parts of the US and countries around the world.
Building the gigafactory for batteries in northern Nevada was a smart move not only for his cars, but their energy storage business. The Powerwalls get more hype but the utility-scale projects in Australia and California are much more significant.
His boring company is also pretty forward thinking, but who knows if the hyperloop will ever be developed anywhere. It sounds like his de facto Chicago blue line express between the Loop and OHare is not going to happen, regardless of who is elected their next mayor tomorrow.
That said, he deserves to be criticized for repeatedly overpromising and overhyping everything. Merging Tesla with SolarCity made sense in theory, but it hasn't worked out well. Other solar companies (particularly Sunrun) took their market share and even these high-end solar roofs with solar shingles that just look like regular roofs haven't taken off nor will they ever be cost-competitive with regular roof-top solar installations.
If he gets in any more legal trouble, though, he might be best off selling the business, which might happen, anyway. As it is, SpaceX seems to be is biggest interest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 09:00:46 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 01, 2019, 08:49:00 PM

Building the gigafactory for batteries in northern Nevada was a smart move not only for his cars, but their energy storage business. The Powerwalls get more hype but the utility-scale projects in Australia and California are much more significant.

I'm not interested in an electric vehicle at this point, but the battery development is encouraging.
Nearly everything in my network runs on -48 volts DC.  Battery technology advancement can really enhance wind and solar power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2019, 11:16:39 PM

Musk.. Yep, he is brilliant, BUT!!!




My best pal bought one of his cars. Model S. Very nice. Needs to be charged every day in the winter - range is 120 miles when it's cold. Electric bill is WAY up. Shockingly up.




So far, buyer remorse. I imagine in the long term, he will be happy. It's a great car. Super fast, off the line, but I caught him in my Benz after 85 MPH. Maybe less??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 11:35:48 PM

85 MPH??!?!?!?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2019, 11:43:24 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 11:35:48 PM

85 MPH??!?!?!?

I've had her at 120. Illinois tollway, bro. Not sure how fast she can get to. Not gonna try. I'm good.

Mrs. 847 wants a Porsche again. I may allow it.*

* As if I could stop it. Haha. Not. You know her. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 02, 2019, 12:32:49 AM

If you're saying that charging his EV is more expensive than an equivalent refill at the gas station (say 4 gallons for 30 mpg vehicle = 120 miles, which is probably ~$10 if gas is $2.50 / gal, which would be lower than usual) that's surprising. I just looked this up so I could be wrong, but supposedly the Model S has a 100 kWh battery capacity, which at $0.10 / kWh (which is more expensive than in most states except AK, HI, CA, NY, and New England) would also cost $10 to charge....... Maintenance costs for EVs should also be lower (no oil changes, fewer parts that could break, etc.).

Unless your friend is an unusual electricity rate structure (most residential customers have simple flat rates, though ComEd is one of the few utilities that offers real-time pricing to residential customers, which should actually help them save money as I did when I lived in Chicago - especially for him if he were charging his vehicle at night.... IL is also deregulated so he could've gotten a bad deal from a retail energy supplier if he signed up with one) I don't understand why that would happen....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2019, 09:51:31 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2019, 11:43:24 PM

I've had her at 120. Illinois tollway, bro. Not sure how fast she can get to. Not gonna try. I'm good.

Mrs. 847 wants a Porsche again. I may allow it.*

* As if I could stop it. Haha. Not. You know her. :)

haha, I wouldn't even think about one negative comment about a Porsche.  It will look great in the driveway, she will look great driving it, and It's only money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 04:20:13 PM

In WW Two, Ferdinand Porsche was one of the major tank designers.  He provided a prototype for the Tiger tank (which was not adopted).  He converted the 78 he had made to the "Ferdinand" (later called "Elephant") tank destroyers used at Kursk and elsewhere.  

They do build some nice cars today.  I used to want a 944 back when I couldn't afford one.  I think a color matched key fob is a $360 option.

The new C8 Corvette will be midengined, which is rather interesting.  Some reports have it at 1,000 hp and they experienced problems with the frame at full thrust.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2019, 06:46:54 PM

Man, I’m starting to have frame issues at full thrust myself....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 07:49:38 PM

Yeah, it happens, but not when you're new to the game.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 05, 2019, 08:02:40 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2019, 11:43:24 PM

Mrs. 847 wants a Porsche again. I may allow it.*

 :)

Miss Nubbz wants a 2005 Dodge Neon.It can hit 120 going down a 45 deg hill provided the emergency brake isn't stuck .Guess I'll put one in the Easter basket with the Cadbury Bunny

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 08:05:06 PM

I'm amazed how fast even basic cars are today compared with muscle cars of 1970.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2019, 09:56:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 08:05:06 PM

I'm amazed how fast even basic cars are today compared with muscle cars of 1970.

Mini-vans can book it!  Put one of those engines in a little Miada or something, and I bet you're in Stingray territory.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2019, 10:52:24 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2019, 06:46:54 PM

Man, I’m starting to have frame issues at full thrust myself....

Have you tried stretching first? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 07:27:28 AM

Just take a basic Honda Civic or Accord and compare 0-60 times with "muscle cars" of yore.  They compare pretty well overall.  The top Honda Civic would smoke nearly any muscle car.

So would the top Golf (which has AWD which really helps).

There was a period from about 1974 to 1984 when even the fastest cars were really slow, a 0-60 time under 10 seconds was "fast".  That was the nadir for performance for cars.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2019, 09:37:09 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 08:05:06 PM

I'm amazed how fast even basic cars are today compared with muscle cars of 1970.

traction
weight
transmission

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 10:27:19 AM

The key factor is torque and horsepower, or if you will power to weight ratios.  They are MUCH higher today, and yes, tires offer more traction, especially the summer tires.  Probably the best single thing to make your own car handle better is to add summer - and then winter - tires, in place of all seasons.

My 1973 Chevy Nova with a 5.7 L engine had 185 horsepower, which is trivial by today's standards.   A base Honda Accord has 192 (from 1.5 L turbocharged, up to 252 in higher trims).

And of course modern engines usually add fuel injection and excellent breathing and computer controls that mine lacked.  That Nova was considered to be a pretty fast car in its day, and it got 18 mpg on the freeway even at 55 mph.

  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2019, 10:34:24 AM

as you know, everything changed with new regulations in 1973

my 1970 Nova SS had the 300hp 350/5.7

yes, I could get close to 20 mpg and that was with 411 gears in the 12 bolt rear end, about 3,000 rpm at 60 mph

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 10:40:41 AM

That 300 horsepower was gross, my 185 horsepower was SAE net, a very different figure, about the same as 285 gross.

The air pump took away about 10 horsepower and some fuel economy.

https://ateupwithmotor.com/terms-technology-definitions/gross-versus-net-horsepower/ (https://ateupwithmotor.com/terms-technology-definitions/gross-versus-net-horsepower/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 10:44:54 AM

1967 Chevrolet Camaro SSCompare Car0-60 mph 7.9 | Quarter mile 15.2
1969 Chevrolet Camaro ZL-1Compare Car0-60 mph 5.2 | Quarter mile 11.6
1972 Chevrolet Camaro GTCompare Car0-60 mph 10.4 | Quarter mile 17.4
1972 Chevrolet Camaro Luxury GTCompare Car0-60 mph 9.7 | Quarter mile 17.0
1972 Chevrolet Camaro Z28Compare Car0-60 mph 7.4 | Quarter mile 15.3
1974 Chevrolet Camaro Z28Compare Car0-60 mph 8.0 | Quarter mile 15.2
1975 Chevrolet Camaro (350ci)Compare Car0-60 mph 10.9 | Quarter mile 17.2

Aside from that ZL-1, those are pedestrian acceleration times by modern metrics.  And the ZL-1 would not be considered truly exceptional today, just fast.  A VW Golf R would be faster.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2019, 02:36:24 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 02, 2019, 12:32:49 AM

If you're saying that charging his EV is more expensive than an equivalent refill at the gas station (say 4 gallons for 30 mpg vehicle = 120 miles, which is probably ~$10 if gas is $2.50 / gal, which would be lower than usual) that's surprising. I just looked this up so I could be wrong, but supposedly the Model S has a 100 kWh battery capacity, which at $0.10 / kWh (which is more expensive than in most states except AK, HI, CA, NY, and New England) would also cost $10 to charge....... Maintenance costs for EVs should also be lower (no oil changes, fewer parts that could break, etc.).

Unless your friend is an unusual electricity rate structure (most residential customers have simple flat rates, though ComEd is one of the few utilities that offers real-time pricing to residential customers, which should actually help them save money as I did when I lived in Chicago - especially for him if he were charging his vehicle at night.... IL is also deregulated so he could've gotten a bad deal from a retail energy supplier if he signed up with one) I don't understand why that would happen....

Nah. That's not what I wrote.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 02:48:56 PM

If you buy an EV and charge the battery routinely, you'd expect to see your bill rise, but not nearly as much as you save not buying gasoline and brakes and whatnot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 02:49:24 PM

I'm not sure why all cars don't use regen braking now in place of an alternator.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 03:05:42 PM

https://www.motortrend.com/news/new-ev-recharging-tech-technologue/?sm_id=organic_fb_MT_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5ca8e969e6dfda0001dc84ce&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR37XHMyMJKYf6m_ML44PW1f01j9eyGADWBw33Agsq8yO97SdkcjmtJwYMU (https://www.motortrend.com/news/new-ev-recharging-tech-technologue/?sm_id=organic_fb_MT_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5ca8e969e6dfda0001dc84ce&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR37XHMyMJKYf6m_ML44PW1f01j9eyGADWBw33Agsq8yO97SdkcjmtJwYMU)

119 miles of charge in 5 minutes?  Mebbe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2019, 03:08:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 10:27:19 AM

Probably the best single thing to make your own car handle better is to add summer - and then winter - tires, in place of all seasons.

What do y'all need winter tires for? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 03:12:17 PM

If I have summer tires, I need winter tires as well if the temperature drops below about 40°F fairly often, which it does here.  I could probably drive less aggressively and get by though.

I was amazed at the traction those high performance summer tires did on wet pavement in Austin.  They were Michelin Pilot Sport Cup 2s, really almost racing tires with some tread.

https://www.michelinman.com/tire/michelin/pilot-sport-cup-2 (https://www.michelinman.com/tire/michelin/pilot-sport-cup-2)

They changed the tires after each day's run.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2019, 10:25:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 07:27:28 AM

Just take a basic Honda Civic or Accord and compare 0-60 times with "muscle cars" of yore.  They compare pretty well overall.  The top Honda Civic would smoke nearly any muscle car.

So would the top Golf (which has AWD which really helps).

There was a period from about 1974 to 1984 when even the fastest cars were really slow, a 0-60 time under 10 seconds was "fast".  That was the nadir for performance for cars.

True.  My 1986 Chrysler Laser XT Turbo would make 0-60 in around 8.2 seconds and was considered "fast" for the era.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2019, 10:32:11 AM

Right now an electric car wouldn't really suit my needs, but a really well designed hybrid pickup or SUV would.  The range for full electrics just isn't there yet for me, especially given my towing wants/needs.  But combining the power/torque of an electric motor with the range of the gas engine would be a hell of a combination for towing.  

Makes me wonder, is hybrid technology being applied in commercial long haul trucking?  Seems like a logical place for it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 10:52:47 AM

I think a Diesel is a better engine for a hybrid, design one to run at constant RPM, like 2200, and do nothing but generate electricity as needed.  Is the electric motors exclusively for drive, like on locomotives.  That would simplify transmissions, eliminate the alternator, and increase fuel economy while providing immediate torque.

Regen braking would make brakes last a long long time.  You would not need to downshift to brake, no need for a Jake brake.  I don't know how many gears a transmission might need, depending.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 10:54:24 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 10, 2019, 10:25:36 AM

True.  My 1986 Chrysler Laser XT Turbo would make 0-60 in around 8.2 seconds and was considered "fast" for the era.

That is the 0-60 time of my Chevy Sonic, which the daughter now drives.  It was a turbo as well, 1.4 L.  I actually liked that car.
The GTI is of course a lot better, some larger and a good bit faster and better handling.  I thought it was a bargain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2019, 12:14:59 PM

My Ford Flex, with a 285 hp motor, does 0-60 in 8 seconds. But that's due to it being a gigantic heavy pig, and only FWD.

The EcoBoost version with AWD and a 365 hp motor gets down to 5.7s, IIRC. Pretty fast for a kid-hauling station wagon. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 12:16:39 PM

This is one of the reasons fuel cell technology (hydrogen) is potentially the next big deal. The batteries aren't there to power long-haul trucking, but fuel cells can generate their own electricity, without the need for the huge battery storage. With a little push, the diesel trucking fleet could convert to hydrogen and be able to make those long hauls (and hill climbs) on electricity--with torque to spare (and capable of a hydrogen refuel in minutes, rather than the time it takes to recharge EV batteries). Also, smaller batteries would be much better for the environment, as these lithium batteries aren't so awesome environmentally.

Right now the infrastructure isn't there, which makes hydrogen expensive--which itself is silly given how plentiful hydrogen is. California is trying hard to build it out, but seems to be swimming upstream at the moment. 

I seriously considered getting a hydrogen-powered car a few months ago, but for a one-car family, it just couldn't quite pencil out. Again, with a little push, it's a real possibility.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 12:19:29 PM

I think anything under 8 seconds or so is adequate these days, and the torque number of often the critical parameter, not horsepower.  (They are of course related by RPM.)

Anything under 6 seconds can be considered "fast" or quick, whatever, and under 4 seconds is getting into supercar range, even though it's really Camaro/Mustang range today.

To get under 3 seconds, you need all wheel drive almost without exception.  Somebody got a ZR-1 to do 2.95 seconds once.

The GTI is around 6 seconds and I've yet to floor it.  I've mashed it a bit for fun.  The CTS we had was around 6 seconds with a 4 cylinder engine and 4,000 pounds to haul around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 12:21:33 PM

Hydrogen is not plentiful.  It's all tied up.  And getting it out is energy intensive.  Then you have transportation and storage and delivery of a very cryogenic fuel.

I saw the math somewhere long ago on generating and transporting and cooling hydrogen and it did not compare with shipping electrons by wire to batteries.

Single digit Kelvin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 10, 2019, 12:45:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 10:52:47 AM

I think a Diesel is a better engine for a hybrid, design one to run at constant RPM, like 2200, and do nothing but generate electricity as needed.  Is the electric motors exclusively for drive, like on locomotives.  That would simplify transmissions, eliminate the alternator, and increase fuel economy while providing immediate torque.

Regen braking would make brakes last a long long time.  You would not need to downshift to brake, no need for a Jake brake.  I don't know how many gears a transmission might need, depending.

If you don't need to downshift to have regenerative braking, does that mean that you can't just coast?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 12:52:21 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 10, 2019, 12:45:54 PM

If you don't need to downshift to have regenerative braking, does that mean that you can't just coast?

In cars, you can adjust the the controls to do either.  Many folks use one pedal driving, if they come off the "gas", they start slowing down rapidly.  That would take some adjustment.  You can also set it to coast normally and only brake when you hit the brakes.
I understand that many use the one pedal technique and only get on the brakes in an emergency.
In cars, there is no transmission, usually, beyond a step down gear, no gear changes.  The motor has torque right off 0 RPM.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 02:42:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 12:21:33 PM

Hydrogen is not plentiful.  It's all tied up.  And getting it out is energy intensive.  Then you have transportation and storage and delivery of a very cryogenic fuel.

I saw the math somewhere long ago on generating and transporting and cooling hydrogen and it did not compare with shipping electrons by wire to batteries.

Single digit Kelvin.

I'm no scientist, so I'll leave those details to you. My understanding is that with dedicated infrastructure, it would be much less expensive than it is--still more expensive than generating electricity for EV cars.  But, batteries capable of supporting long haul trucking are a long way off--whereas fuel cell technology for the same is not. While hydrogen through electrolysis is energy intensive--with whatever impact on the environment as the power generation it relies on--it is not as energy intensive as the internal combustion that currently drives long-haul trucking.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 02:51:35 PM

so the proposed Tesla Semi would be for short hauls, less than 500 miles?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:10:26 PM

Hydrogen is most often derived from natural gas, leaving carbon as the residue.  It's more energy efficient than electrolysis of water.  It's still highly energy intensive, and the product has to be cooled which is even more energy intensive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 03:14:07 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 02:51:35 PM

so the proposed Tesla Semi would be for short hauls, less than 500 miles?

Tesla advertises a 300 or 500 mile range. Impacted, presumably, by grade changes. Presumably climbs over mountain ranges will dramatically reduce the battery life.
So as long as the trucker is planning trips along flat, rapid battery recharging routes, great.
I hope I'm wrong, though. I'm all for an effective electric fleet (and without human drivers, please).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 03:15:22 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:10:26 PM

Hydrogen is most often derived from natural gas, leaving carbon as the residue.  It's more energy efficient than electrolysis of water.  It's still highly energy intensive, and the product has to be cooled which is even more energy intensive.

I get that. How does its efficiency compare to the internal combustion engine. I understand it is still favorable, but maybe I'm mistaken.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:15:29 PM

Tesla, and Musk, have been know at times to make statements and promises that later turned out to be fairy dust.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:18:59 PM

Efficiency measured how?  The efficiency of a fuel cell is very high compared to any heat engine.  It's a chemical reaction.  

The efficiency of the entire chain required for them is another story.  You can take natural gas and burned it in say a turbine at reasonable efficiencies and generate electricity that is delivered over the wires pretty efficiently.

Or, you can crack the NG into hydrogen and coal, which is "efficient" but VERY energy intensive, and then take the hydrogen and cool it to 10 Kelvin, which is efficient but VERY energy intensive, and then ship it somehow to a distribution outlet.

The energy required overall to propel a vehicle is less for battery system, by a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2019, 03:19:56 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:15:29 PM

Tesla, and Musk, have been know at times to make statements and promises that later turned out to be fairy dust.

That charge may be unfair to fairy dust. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2019, 03:21:32 PM

I still don't understand how plug-in hybrid never took off. Seems like it's the absolute perfect solution.

Battery power for most of your around-town trips so that you rarely if ever have to top off the gasoline tank, but you retain every single bit of range and ease of refueling for the long haul trips.

And by reducing the battery range, you can keep the battery cost and weight down to reasonable levels. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:28:30 PM

The plug in hybrids didn't offer enough advantage over regular hybrids in most driving.  I thought the Volt was a marvel and hit a sweet spot, but obviously it was not a success in the market, perhaps in part because gas is so cheap.  I helped my kid buy a Chevy Cruze with a Diesel that gets over 60 mpg on the highway.  And a Toyota hybrid will get 45 mpg around town, easily.  The Volt was complicated and heavy, and basically required the fancy charger like an EV.  If you only drive around town, an EV is a better choice.

If you drive intercity, a hydrid or Diesel would be better I think.

An interesting use for fuel cells is "load leveling" when wind turbines generate too much power, use that power to produce hydrogen for fuel cells that operate later when the wind isn't blowing.

Article on relative efficiency of fuel cell versus a battery:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 04:38:53 PM

I would have purchased a plug-in hybrid rather than the traditional hybrid, but the specs didn't work. Unfortunately, the car we were seriously considering (the Honda Clarity) has had too many reliability issues for us to be willing to spend the money on it. It helped our decision that we liked the Accord better, but we still likely would have gone for the Clarity, but for the reliability problems. And yeah, I get around 48 MPG in my Accord hybrid.

CD: the vehicle miles traveled is the key metric for the efficiency question, i.e., what is the total energy consumption--and total carbon emissions--per mile. My understanding is that even with all its inefficiencies, hydrogen fuel cells still beat internal combustion by a comfortable margin, but perhaps not.

Battery technology has certainly improved a great deal, but (again, my lay person's understanding) physics present serious limitations on further massive gains.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 10, 2019, 05:32:47 PM

Hydrogen from gas is not cost-effective (nor does it make any sense), but as more renewables are deployed, hydrogen production is an alternative to deploying energy storage to prevent wind and solar from being curtailed during periods of excess generation (eg. early afternoon for solar, middle of the night for wind), which would also make hydrogen much more cost-effective. This is already done in Germany.

I may have mentioned this before, but the big opportunity to me for hydrogen is in heating. There's also a push for electrification of HVAC and appliances that are often run on gas (stoves, ovens, etc.), such as some new construction residential developments in California which opted not to include any gas lines, but hydrogen can be mixed with natural gas and eventually gas utilities could theoretically just use hydrogen if it becomes cost-effective and/or legislation requires it. Australia and the UK are already testing this out.

Despite the on-going attempts by Tesla and a few other companies, I don't see electrification of long-distance freight as viable (but for school buses, city buses, mail trucks, maintenance vehicles, and the like, it should be over time.... I just saw today that there's even a company retrofitting small seaplanes to be electric-powered, and it's cost-effective), but whether hydrogen beats out compressed natural gas or not for long-distance transportation is up for debate.

That said, the energy density of batteries is continuing to improve, so there may be more uses for them than previously thought as that continues to improve.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 06:16:43 PM

Well, hydrogen has to be made from something.  Those chemical bonds take energy to break, it's inherent.

The simple cycle is water electrolysis as you remake water when you get the energy back out of course, water in, water out, and a lot of energy in between, both input and output.

And we already have the electricity infrastructure obviously.  It's hard to beat something that already is paid for.  We'd need more generating capability of course if we go to EVs on a large scale, it's a pretty sig percentage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 10, 2019, 06:45:17 PM

I hope you guys in the path of the "historic" bizzard that is supposed to hit the north-central plains Friday are getting ready to batten down the hatches.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 06:59:07 PM

Yeah, I read about that.  The wife was complaining that I was stinky on the elevator after our walk.  It was 80°F here.  Thank goodness for air conditioning.

I remember as a kid asking folks how AC worked and nobody could tell me, not even my teachers.  I wish I had had the Internet back then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 07:05:04 PM

Nice video in this link I posted before if you're interested in comparing fuel cells and batteries.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/)

It talks about efficiencies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 09:52:00 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 10, 2019, 06:45:17 PM

I hope you guys in the path of the "historic" bizzard that is supposed to hit the north-central plains Friday are getting ready to batten down the hatches.

I'm a few miles south and east of the blizzard line
thankfully
I-29 from Sioux City north is closed
this happens in April from time to time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 10, 2019, 10:06:50 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 10, 2019, 05:32:47 PM

There's also a push for electrification of HVAC and appliances that are often run on gas (stoves, ovens, etc.)

could not care less when it comes to ovens, but I'd fight to the death to keep a gas range over an electric cooktop. Electric cooktops just pale in comparison to a kick ass gas range. They actually suck compared to a gas range.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 10:30:43 PM

My house has been ALL electric since it was built in 1981

but, I like my V-8 gassers in vehicles

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2019, 11:15:00 PM

I definitely prefer gas ranges.

"They say" electric convection ovens are superior, and that's what we have, but only because that's what the house had when we bought it.  I have no experience with gas convection ovens (is there such a thing?) to determine whether or not it's better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 06:54:25 AM

The electric ovens definitely hold their temps better*. Gotta have 220 to make them go, so you can't just change it out easily. I wanted to in our old place, but the conduit from the box to the stove outlet was not large enough to carry the heavy gage wire. I was not gonna start tearing up drywall and other things, so, I ended up with the full gas range instead of the electric/gas combo.



Much like MDot, big brother would have to come shoot me to take my gas stove away. I might even shoot back.



It snowed here yesterday. Mother nature is not funny. She's a bitch.




* the good ones

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 07:21:22 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 09:52:00 PM

I'm a few miles south and east of the blizzard line
thankfully

I'm sure the Blizzard will stick to the flight plans the meteorologists lay out for it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 07:29:02 AM

Yeah we've got 220 (221... whatever it takes) to the wall oven and the dryer.  Which makes me recall, our dryer is gas as well.  The oven seems to work well, better than the gas one in our old house, but that also was not a convection oven. The gas drier works extremely well.

But like you, it's the gas cooktop I wouldn't want to do without.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 07:55:37 AM

I strongly prefer the induction cook top to gas, as does the wife.  I was OK with the stove that was in the unit, which was regular electric, but the wife rather insisted we replace it with the induction unit we bought.  I was cooking with gas (ha) while we were in Boston, a nice stove, and we both commented how much we preferred induction.

It does require special ferromagnetic cookware.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 11:01:01 AM

Never used induction and don't have any desire to retrofit for it.  If I somehow moved into a house that already had it, I suppose I'd purchase the appropriate cookware and use it.

As far as gas to regular electric, there's no comparison. Regular electric is miserable and I'd never go back to it, even if the gubment tried to force me.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 11:05:28 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 07:21:22 AM

I'm sure the Blizzard will stick to the flight plans the meteorologists lay out for it

so far, so good!
just rain and wind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 11:08:18 AM

The regular electric is awful.  If we had gas I'd keep it.  As I said, we swapped out a perfectly good electric range for induction (adding another $3300 to the cost of the kitchen).  I've used the new stove a few times and it is remarkably better than conduction.

The wife wanted gas in the old kitchen until we got induction.  If you are in the market for a new stove somehow, I'd strongly suggest considering induction.  It works better than gas and of course is easier to clean.  The other advantage is that it doesn't heat up the kitchen in summer due to heat bypassing the cooking pot.  That is important around here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 11:34:09 AM

Not looking for a new cooktop any time in the next decade, but I'll keep it in mind. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 11:40:46 AM

Does the top scratch on those things? Cast iron skillet??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 01:20:50 PM

I imagine the top could scratch, but ours in Cincy never did at all.  The top material is the same as with regular electric burners.

Cast iron works on it, I don't know what happens if you "shake" the skillet on the surface.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 02:10:26 PM

I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 02:27:07 PM

We all interact with electromagnetism on a daily basis.  Life would be rather difficult without it.

The unification of electric and magnetic phenomena in a complete mathematical theory was the achievement of the Scottish physicist Maxwell (http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/glossary/maxwell.html) (1850's). In a set of four elegant equations, Maxwell formalized the relationship between electric and magnetic fields. In addition, he showed that a linear magnetic and electric field can be self-reinforcing and must move at a particular velocity, the speed of light. Thus, he concluded that light is energy carried in the form of opposite but supporting electric and magnetic fields in the shape of waves, i.e. self-propagating electromagnetic waves.

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fabyss.uoregon.edu%2F%7Ejs%2Fimages%2Fmaxwell_eq.gif&hash=ccdf895cf5d087211756d7e496b8f153)

Maxwell's new theory provides a new description of light, as electromagnetic waves electromagnetism represents a sharp change in the way Nature is described, i.e. the use of invisible fields and understanding that can only be communicated with mathematics

[size=-1]In doing this, Maxwell moved physics to a new realm of understanding. By using field theory as the core to electromagnetism, we have moved beyond a Newtonian worldview where objects change by direct contact and into a theory that uses invisible fields. This introduces a type of understanding which can only be described with a type of mathematics that cannot be directly translated into language. In other words, scientists where restricted in talking about electromagnetic phenomenon strictly through the use of a new type of language, one of pure math.[/size]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 02:31:45 PM

Maxwell's Equations

Integral form in the absence of magnetic or polarizable media:

I. Gauss' law for electricity (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c1)

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw1.gif&hash=e70356a7392b210c85e601a085389334)

II. Gauss' law for magnetism (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c2)

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw2.gif&hash=e037d669f467d2cae50cdfbcf9aafd30)

III. Faraday's law of induction (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c3)

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw3.gif&hash=33b7ca2d850cedd21bdb7b696f7b27a9)

IV. Ampere's law (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c4)

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw4.gif&hash=1fefecf79bd18bb2d09ae0c01a7c4f26)

Those are the four allegedly "elegant" equations.  I can recall getting a few headaches from them back in the day.

Differential form (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq.html#c3)

Discussion (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq.html#c1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2019, 02:36:35 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 02:10:26 PM

I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.

I'm kinda with you, but along the same lines I think typical home range burners are just too wimpy. 
I want a badass gas range with an integrated wok burner. Something that can put out serious BTUs. 
And whether they're gas or electric (don't care), a double oven. 
In my dream kitchen, it's going to more resemble a restaurant kitchen than a home kitchen. But probably less stainless steel--gotta keep the Mrs happy ;-) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 02:37:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 02:10:26 PM

I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.

Me too!!

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toonpool.com%2Fuser%2F997%2Ffiles%2Fcaveman_fire_greenhouse_gases_1135865.jpg&hash=881d1198b104b5c6e22d268542c76683)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 11, 2019, 02:39:54 PM

I just want a 10 min pizza oven.  I'd end up putting all sorts of rubbish through it to see what worked well and what didn't.  Maybe some bacon grilled cheese or something.  Hot anything in 10 min.  Yes, please, and thank you...and it would keep the house warm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 02:42:29 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 11, 2019, 02:36:35 PM

I'm kinda with you, but along the same lines I think typical home range burners are just too wimpy.
I want a badass gas range with an integrated wok burner. Something that can put out serious BTUs.
And whether they're gas or electric (don't care), a double oven.
In my dream kitchen, it's going to more resemble a restaurant kitchen than a home kitchen. But probably less stainless steel--gotta keep the Mrs happy ;-)

I'm using a Wolf now. That thing kicks some serious ass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 02:50:16 PM

https://www.finecooking.com/article/how-an-induction-cooktop-works (https://www.finecooking.com/article/how-an-induction-cooktop-works)

 Thus, on an induction cooktop, the heat is coming not from the burner, but the pan itself.  This can make for more efficient cooking–a pot of water will come to a boil on an induction stove in almost half the time of a standard gas stove. You’re also less likely to have hot spots in your pan, where food gets scorched because it has more contact with the heat source below. And, once you remove the pan, an induction cooktop cools off faster than a conventional burner, because it was only hot from contact with the pan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 03:34:55 PM

Dude... Cincy... I love you man. But...

I have a degree in electrical engineering and was a practicing engineer for over a decade. I'm pretty familiar with electromagnetism...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 03:39:10 PM

my wimpy electric range top gets plenty hot enough to burn almost anything edible

and I'm a patient man, waiting a few minutes for water to boil doesn't bother me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:47:35 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 02:42:29 PM

I'm using a Wolf now. That thing kicks some serious ass.

Wolf is a great product. I think the best high end ranges are from Dacor, personally. Viking is nice looking but quality is garbage. Miele and Gaggenau are great German products- but good luck getting those serviced. If I had 100K to blow on a rage, I'd get a top of the line La Cornue just for the freaking looks. Those babies are GORGEOUS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:51:08 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 11, 2019, 02:39:54 PM

I just want a 10 min pizza oven.  I'd end up putting all sorts of rubbish through it to see what worked well and what didn't.  Maybe some bacon grilled cheese or something.  Hot anything in 10 min.  Yes, please, and thank you...and it would keep the house warm.

Standard ovens you buy for the home are terrible for pizza making. If you want to make real pizza you need to get a Stefano Ferrara oven from Italy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 03:52:00 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 11, 2019, 02:36:35 PM

In my dream kitchen.....

as long as we're dreaming I won't be doing any of the cooking.It'll be made nightly by the ATK crew and I'll be served by a good looking Michigan Grad - I know there's a few out there.I'll be living in an airy Roman-Greco Villa with a mountain spring on one side from which Oktoberfest will be made from all year long.And on the other side will be a volcanic mineral hot springs.I will have a round American wife and she will raise rabbits for our culinary delight

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 03:52:44 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 03:34:55 PM

Dude... Cincy... I love you man. But...

I have a degree in electrical engineering and was a practicing engineer for over a decade. I'm pretty familiar with electromagnetism...

I was jerking your chain, with good effect, don't be so sensAtive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:53:01 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 11, 2019, 02:36:35 PM

I'm kinda with you, but along the same lines I think typical home range burners are just too wimpy.
I want a badass gas range with an integrated wok burner. Something that can put out serious BTUs.
And whether they're gas or electric (don't care), a double oven.
In my dream kitchen, it's going to more resemble a restaurant kitchen than a home kitchen. But probably less stainless steel--gotta keep the Mrs happy ;-)

Most gas ranges they sell at Home Depot or Lowes or Best Buy are kinda garbage. Not exactly the best. Hard to find quality when you are buying a gas range for $900. Most of the high end luxury appliance maker ranges are every bit as good as the commercial ones that restaurants buy- the drawback- they are expensive as hell.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 03:54:42 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 02:10:26 PM

I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.

Prolly Burnt Orange

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 11, 2019, 03:55:12 PM

We have a Wolf that we like, but the springs in the knobs have been a little glitchy. First world problems.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 03:56:53 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:51:08 PM

Standard ovens you buy for the home are terrible for pizza making. If you want to make real pizza you need to get a Stefano Ferrara oven from Italy.

Have you seen those electric ones that get up to 1000 degrees? Just curious how those things rate. Of course, I would love to have a wood burning pizza oven. It would see a lot more things than just pizza.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 03:57:11 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 03:52:44 PM

I was jerking your chain, with good effect, don't be so sensAtive.

That's a character flaw in almost all Horns - too golderned sensitive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2019, 04:01:44 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:53:01 PM

Most gas ranges they sell at Home Depot or Lowes or Best Buy are kinda garbage. Not exactly the best. Hard to find quality when you are buying a gas range for $900. Most of the high end luxury appliance maker ranges are every bit as good as the commercial ones that restaurants buy- the drawback- they are expensive as hell.

Exactly. That's why this is for my dream kitchen... You know, when I can spend $5K+ on a range ;-) 
For now, if I *really* want to get a wok ripping hot, I can always use my propane turkey fryer burner on the back porch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 04:07:51 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 03:56:53 PM

Have you seen those electric ones that get up to 1000 degrees? Just curious how those things rate. Of course, I would love to have a wood burning pizza oven. It would see a lot more things than just pizza.

haven't really seen them, no. Sounds interesting though.
I just know from experience that making pizza at home in the oven never comes out how you want it.
Never buy pre-made store pizza dough either- even if it's from a place like Fresh Market or Whole Foods. I tried that one time and it was just terrible. You want good pizza dough you've got to make it yourself, and if you want good pizza you've got to have the right oven. That's what it's all about- the dough and the oven. That's 99% of the battle right there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:17:16 PM

I think with most things there is a curve of diminishing returns in practical terms.  The low priced stuff is usually junk.  The mid priced stuff is OK.  The medium high priced stuff is good.

I think for a car a $30K Honda Accord is a really good car, and others like it.  You can spend $60 K on a Mercedes and there is a difference of course, but at twice the cost, versus a really good car.  We looked at a Miele induction that was $7700.  Nope.  This kitchen redo is already over $40 K as it is, for a small kitchen, the wife went a bit haywire on some redo stuff.

My buddy has that incredible stereo system, he's the one who spent well over $2 K on the speaker cables.  Mine is fine with me, and nothing beats live.  Camera gear?  I look at the lenses the pros are using these days and they are insanely expensive.  Mine are just bottom of the line Nikkor stuff, but I'm not a pro at all.  They can shoot better stuff with my gear than I can with theirs.

Baseball equipment?  Yikes, it gets pricey.  A standard MLB baseball these days is $35, each, retail.  It won't help me any.  Running shoes?  

Wine?  Oops.  I'm doing really well sticking to $20-30 aided greatly by the much lower wine prices here.  I picked up a case today of a wine that is half the price it would be in Ohio.  I have had some high end wine in my life and in general it is really really good, to me.  But I can't drink that once in a blue moon.

Beer?  We stopped off at a new bar during a walk and I had a glass (draft) of Two Hearted IPA, I really like that stuff.  With tip it came to $9 but I overtipped a bit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:18:17 PM

I saw a purpose made pizza oven in Costco for $3300.  I pondered how many really good pizzas I can buy for $3300 already made.

https://www.costco.com/Forno-Venetzia-Pronto-500-Outdoor-Wood-Burning-Pizza-Oven.product.100419075.html (https://www.costco.com/Forno-Venetzia-Pronto-500-Outdoor-Wood-Burning-Pizza-Oven.product.100419075.html)

This one is $2 K.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 04:20:13 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 03:57:11 PM

That's a character flaw in almost all Horns - too golderned sensitive

you didn't hear this from me
I spell it, "sensative"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:23:15 PM

Speaking of food, the wife just sent me this link with "I hope we have time to go":

http://www.il-etait-une-oie.fr/en/menus/ (http://www.il-etait-une-oie.fr/en/menus/)

That's our favorite place in Paris.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 04:24:36 PM

probably cheaper to fly to Paris and dine there than to invest the time and money to be able to prepare it yourself in your kitchen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:28:52 PM

Prices have gone up of late on direct flights.  I can mess around and get some cheaper by flying to Boston and then to Ireland.  We're going in May, I'll tough it out.  The wife is no longer Diamond Medallion, bummer.  I'm no longer anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 04:35:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:28:52 PM

Prices have gone up of late on direct flights.  I can mess around and get some cheaper by flying to Boston and then to Ireland.  We're going in May, I'll tough it out.  The wife is no longer Diamond Medallion, bummer.  I'm no longer anything.

Norwegian Air has ridiculously cheap direct flights to Paris from a lot of US cities. They have some fares for as low as $145 each way for basic economy. Direct. Non-stop. Their entire fleet is also brand new Boeings. Insane that they are able to sell some tickets that cheap.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 04:52:17 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 04:35:13 PM

Norwegian Air has ridiculously cheap direct flights to Paris from a lot of US cities. They have some fares for as low as $145 each way for basic economy. Direct. Non-stop. Their entire fleet is also brand new Boeings. Insane that they are able to sell some tickets that cheap.

Only from certain coastal cities. NYC, Florida, Cali. Nothing from Chicago, for sure. I checked with them and by the time I got to NYC, paid for the upgrades and all the BS... I ended up using American. It was a little more, but the mileage program tipped it in for me. That, and I could find nothing direct to Rome, at the time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:54:17 PM

The "brand new Boeings" is not quite the attraction is may once have been.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:55:06 PM

The wife worked for the company that made the engines for the brand new Boeings, which apparently were not implicated.

Those engines technically are pretty neat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 05:07:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:54:17 PM

The "brand new Boeings" is not quite the attraction is may once have been.

These are Dreamliners. No problems with those anymore. Apparently the battery thing is fixed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2019, 05:08:49 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 04:35:13 PM

Norwegian Air has ridiculously cheap direct flights to Paris from a lot of US cities. They have some fares for as low as $145 each way for basic economy. Direct. Non-stop. Their entire fleet is also brand new Boeings. Insane that they are able to sell some tickets that cheap.

Damn. From LAX to Paris, when I start looking at stuff in the fall, it's $400 r/t. That's not bad!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 05:11:34 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 05:07:51 PM

These are Dreamliners. No problems with those anymore. Apparently the battery thing is fixed.

they have some of the 737 MAX that they use in Europe, but they grounded those.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 05:13:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:54:17 PM

The "brand new Boeings" is not quite the attraction is may once have been.

Lol. Touche.
They don't fly the 737 MAX in the US though. They only fly from the US to Europe, and those flights are on the Dreamliners. They only fly the 737 Max inside of Europe, but they've grounded those planes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 05:16:26 PM

Yeah, I know the 737 MAX is more short haul trips. 

I received a very interesting review of the LEAP X engines in Paris 4 years or so back.  Fascinating tech.

Our daughter flies over through Ireland and Boston for about $400.  The wife doesn't want to do that.  She's uber loyal to Delta, which fortunately does fly some out of ATL.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 11, 2019, 05:45:12 PM

It's an N of 1, but we had a TERRIBLE experience on Norwegian flying home from Italy. Some was just basic flying garbage (flight changed from departing at 7 am to 5 am--makes a little difference in your last night there with kids). They charge you for EVERYTHING. Except clean bathrooms...they just didn't offer those. And after charging us for food, they delivered it at the oddest times (it was really, really weird how they did this--I don't remember the details, I just remember how strange and annoying it was), and ran out of vegetarian, despite the specific order (well in advance of the flight), and strung us out in telling us that was what happened to the point where we couldn't get anything delivered to that child because their food service had ended. Add to that flight attendants who were the furthest thing from service oriented. 

I think in the end, it saved us a little money over a major airline, but it wasn't enough to be worth it. Maybe flying as just adults you can accept it all a little better because you're less concerned about the feelings of others, but with a 13- and 11-year old it SUCKED. (The kids handled it fine, but the parents were not happy.)

But the plane was new.

Conversely, we had really good experiences on TAP Portugal (though without the new planes).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 06:08:40 PM

Delta did some amazing things for my wife last year.  I was impressed, and it wasn't because of her status either.

(Her status is that she's married to me, the famous Cincydawg of a billion posts.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 06:58:37 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 11, 2019, 05:45:12 PM

It's an N of 1, but we had a TERRIBLE experience on Norwegian flying home from Italy. Some was just basic flying garbage (flight changed from departing at 7 am to 5 am--makes a little difference in your last night there with kids). They charge you for EVERYTHING. Except clean bathrooms...they just didn't offer those. And after charging us for food, they delivered it at the oddest times (it was really, really weird how they did this--I don't remember the details, I just remember how strange and annoying it was), and ran out of vegetarian, despite the specific order (well in advance of the flight), and strung us out in telling us that was what happened to the point where we couldn't get anything delivered to that child because their food service had ended. Add to that flight attendants who were the furthest thing from service oriented.

I think in the end, it saved us a little money over a major airline, but it wasn't enough to be worth it. Maybe flying as just adults you can accept it all a little better because you're less concerned about the feelings of others, but with a 13- and 11-year old it SUCKED. (The kids handled it fine, but the parents were not happy.)

But the plane was new.

Conversely, we had really good experiences on TAP Portugal (though without the new planes).

I've flown Norwegian twice, and both times it was just fine. Can't really complain at all. Especially for the price. The time changing might have more to do with Italy then the airline. Nothing runs on schedule in Italy.
Both of my experiences with the airline were just fine. On one of the trips I only paid $179 for the base fare plus another $80 think for their plus package which just lets you pick your seat, check a bag, and get two meals- a dinner and a small breakfast. I paid $229 and another $80 on the way back for the same thing. It was like $570 out the door, round-trip, non-stop direct to Paris. Hard to beat that. Planes were brand new and clean, I picked an aisle seat on exit row. Plenty of room for the legs and they had lot of viewing options on the tv and charge ports in the seat to charge phones/laptops/ipads.
Honestly, to me it wasn't even worth it to pay the upcharge for the seat, bag, and meal. If I had to do it again, I wouldn't. They arleady let you carry on a bag up to 15 kg- which is over 30 pounds and if you pack right, that shouldn't be a problem at all. They also let you carry on a backpack and personal item as well. That's plenty of room for all your shit. Plus- I absolutely hate waiting at baggage claim. I much prefer carrying on and getting off the plane and leaving. The food sucks, like it does on every airline and I don't even eat it. I just fricken sleep on long flights like that man. I take a pill and have a shot or two and I'm out. If it's an 8 hr flight I'm sleeping for at least 7 hours of it. The only time I'd need any fancy shmancy is if it's a short flight and I can't sleep and the mind starts wandering. 8-10 hour flights are perfect for me cause I just sleep 95% of them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 07:32:22 PM

I can't sleep on a plane. Even with Xanax. That's not to say I won't try in a couple of weeks. Italy beckons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 07:42:00 PM

I can't sleep on a plane, even in first class.  Maybe with these new fold down seats I could.  But air fare up front is $7000.  No way.

I'll pony for comfort seats but they are getting pricey now.

The good news is that I own a bit of stock in Delta.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 07:43:40 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 11, 2019, 04:01:44 PM

Exactly. That's why this is for my dream kitchen... You know, when I can spend $5K+ on a range ;-)
For now, if I *really* want to get a wok ripping hot, I can always use my propane turkey fryer burner on the back porch.

word up.  My turkey fryer burner is like a jet engine.  It shoots through schools.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 12:13:24 AM

I remember that movie. That joke didn't age so well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2019, 12:27:08 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 12, 2019, 12:13:24 AM

I remember that movie. That joke didn't age so well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2019, 06:45:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 07:42:00 PM

I can't sleep on a plane, even in first class.  Maybe with these new fold down seats I could.  But air fare up front is $7000.  No way.

I'll pony for comfort seats but they are getting pricey now.

The good news is that I own a bit of stock in Delta.

We had the sleeper seats on a flight back from Maui a few years back. I didn't sleep.
We do the best seats we can afford, but nothing less than premium economy now. Even though I'm not tall (like you), I like not having a seat 3" in front of my face. I've got a little problem with confined space too, hence the Xanax. That started maybe a few years ago. It's weird.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2019, 07:42:42 AM

I've had mild claustrophobia since my teen years.  It sucks.

I've also developed a recent aversion to large crowds which is part of what keeps me away from going to more large sporting events and arena concerts.  But it might simply because I hate people, and nothing to do with a true phobia... ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2019, 07:53:20 AM

Hey, I'm adopted. Who knows, brother!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2019, 08:11:30 AM

The wife booked regular seats to Boston and back.  I was at the limit for a two hour flight, knees touching seat in front of me.  They were cheap tickets.  She's used to being upgraded to comfort seats or first, not happening, flight was full.  A321 had movies available which helped.  I watched Apollo 11.

When comfort seats first came out, the price was cheap, but that lasted about a year or so.  I've been in domestic first class obviously and it's just wider seats, not more leg room, and not really anything else better except more bin room.  The BOS trip was pretty cheap as our hosts lent us a car, that Mimi Cooper S (which in no way impressed me).  I bought most of the food we ate and wine.  Our host liked the wine.  I picked up half a case in NH because it was cheaper than in MA, go figure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 01:38:05 PM

I have problems flying coach at 6'5" 260#+, but don't have alternatives. Every time my knees are in touching seat in front of me. Not pleasant, but I do it anyway.

And @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) I get it about hating people. This is the license plate I want...

(https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/56907721_390285145036459_8625724176520445952_n.png?_nc_cat=105&_nc_ht=scontent-lax3-2.xx&oh=7975682ae418981a22c2a90234e80181&oe=5D372CF9)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 01:44:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 07:42:00 PM

I can't sleep on a plane, even in first class.  Maybe with these new fold down seats I could.  But air fare up front is $7000.  No way.

I'll pony for comfort seats but they are getting pricey now.

The good news is that I own a bit of stock in Delta.

$7,000 is kinda the starting price on flights for those pod seats that fold into beds. Sometimes they can be like $9,000 or more. If you were buying multiple tickets, at that price point it'd almost make more sense to charter a private jet. I suspect that most people booking those seats with Delta are using Amex points and SkyMiles to bring the cost of those seats way down. Regardless, that sort of pricing is insane. There are airlines that have even crazier pricing. I think it's either Singapore or Emirates airline maybe that sells like almost a little cabin to yourself- and I emphasize the word little- for something ridiculous like $25,000. I just can't imagine people booking those that often. Let's say a man and his wife and their two kids are buying that ticket. If that guy has $100k to spend on a few tickets to fly one time, he's probably got enough dough to own or charter a private jet.
Airline stocks used to be horrible because of all the competition kept pricing down and ate into profitability. Like most everything else in this country, everything has been consolidated and oligopolized. There were 15-20 major airlines in the US. Now there are 4- Delta, Southwest, United, and American- and those 4 have 80+% of the entire US market share. Now their pricing is all essentially the same and they offer basically all the same services and their ability to control the market and protect profitability is there- and now they are great stocks to own.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 02:55:59 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 12, 2019, 07:42:42 AM

I've also developed a recent aversion to large crowds which is part of what keeps me away from going to more large sporting events and arena concerts.;)

I've developed a recent aversion to parting with large amounts of cash that keeps me from going to sporting events and arena concerts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 03:22:33 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 02:55:59 PM

I've developed a recent aversion to parting with large amounts of cash that keeps me from going to sporting events and arena concerts

Ha. True that. It's insane just how much the costs of attending concerts and sporting events have skyrocketed. They just keep raising the god damn prices of the tickets, concessions, and parking and ask regular people to pay more and more, all the while the BILLIONAIRES who own those teams and those stadiums get sweetheart deals from the govt to use public money in the form of tax breaks, bonds/secured loans, land gifts, etc., etc.. These are some of the richest people in the motherf'ing world- they can self finance or get private lenders to help them build their stadiums- and yet they get stupid gov't officials to give them hand outs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 04:25:37 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 01:44:25 PM

Airline stocks used to be horrible because of all the competition kept pricing down and ate into profitability. Like most everything else in this country, everything has been consolidated and oligopolized. There were 15-20 major airlines in the US. Now there are 4- Delta, Southwest, United, and American- and those 4 have 80+% of the entire US market share. Now their pricing is all essentially the same and they offer basically all the same services and their ability to control the market and protect profitability is there- and now they are great stocks to own.

I think the airlines have gotten a lot smarter about ways to keep planes flying full, too. Instead of offering as many routes and schedules as they used to, they cut back to make sure that an airplane isn't going somewhere with 75% excess capacity. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 04:36:44 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 12, 2019, 04:25:37 PM

I think the airlines have gotten a lot smarter about ways to keep planes flying full, too. Instead of offering as many routes and schedules as they used to, they cut back to make sure that an airplane isn't going somewhere with 75% excess capacity.

Yup. This is a major part of it as well. Flights are usually full. In fact they often overbook their flights. There are always horror stories in the news about this. Wasn't it American Airlines not too long ago where the security physically beat the shit out of a man and dragged him off an overbooked plane?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 05:06:29 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 04:36:44 PM

Yup. This is a major part of it as well. Flights are usually full. In fact they often overbook their flights. There are always horror stories in the news about this. Wasn't it American Airlines not too long ago where the security physically beat the shit out of a man and dragged him off an overbooked plane?

Yeah, that was United, not American. Around the same time United was getting a lot of flak for dead dogs.

Not great for PR. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2019, 05:11:42 PM

Flights do seem more full than 20 years ago when I was flying for business.  Our Boston flights were both 100% full.

Delta has four flights a day to Paris from here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 05:23:54 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 03:22:33 PM

Ha. True that. It's insane just how much the costs of attending concerts and sporting events have skyrocketed. They just keep raising the god damn prices of the tickets, concessions, and parking and ask regular people to pay more and more, all the while the BILLIONAIRES who own those teams and those stadiums get sweetheart deals from the govt to use public money in the form of tax breaks, bonds/secured loans, land gifts, etc., etc.. These are some of the richest people in the motherf'ing world- they can self finance or get private lenders to help them build their stadiums- and yet they get stupid gov't officials to give them hand outs.

I really just wish that collectively the fans would just mail it in.IMO the Federal Gov't should step in on theses stadium deals moving forward - talk about welfare for the rich.Years ago there were some  economist/business types that wrote a book and points out paying for stadiums is really a LOSE.When you factor in the tax breaks and the very few people who actually benefit from having a franchise.It's not the people paying for it.They get rewarded by getting priced right the hell out.After the Browns moved I voted against every public funded facility and they still get pushed thru.I really believe the fix is in with so  much money on the table.Not one guy I talked to EVER wanted to pay more for Beer/whiskey/wine/smokes,etc or voted for either baseball/football stadiums

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 12, 2019, 05:32:51 PM

I think private financing of sports venues is on the rise, fortunately. The interesting thing is it's more common in for soccer and college sports. This article explains it pretty well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2018/12/21/no-new-taxes-cities-seeking-new-soccer-specific-stadiums-exhibit-similar-pr-financial-tactics/#328367395e2d (https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2018/12/21/no-new-taxes-cities-seeking-new-soccer-specific-stadiums-exhibit-similar-pr-financial-tactics/#328367395e2d)

But yes, I did see in that same search that Indiana has passed a bill to pay for a soccer stadium for what isn't currently even an MLS team.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2019, 05:36:19 PM

I am annoyed that the Braves moved out of a perfectly fine stadium finished in 1997 and moved to one of the most traffic plagued parts of the city in the NW with no mass transit.

The Falcons got new digs downtown of course paid for in part with a hotel tax.  Money is fungible, the old GA Dome was not exactly decrepit built around 1992.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 05:43:47 PM

Great Points CD - so I wasn't the only one scratching my head.The country needs to get back to the basics.Taking the wrecking ball to structures designed to last 5-6-7 decades isn't good for a sound economy.Just unbelievably ridiculous

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 07:00:25 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 05:43:47 PM

Great Points CD - so I wasn't the only one scratching my head.The country needs to get back to the basics.Taking the wrecking ball to structures designed to last 5-6-7 decades isn't good for a sound economy.Just unbelievably ridiculous

yeah it's getting crazy. it seems like nowadays they want to replace a stadium every 20-25 years. These megastructures were built to last a lot longer then that. Shit look at Michigan/OSU's football stadiums. They were both built in the 1920s and are still around. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 07:11:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:28:30 PM

I thought the Volt was a marvel and hit a sweet spot, but obviously it was not a success in the market, perhaps in part because gas is so cheap.

the Volt and the Bolt were ugly pieces of shit and their complete and utter failure had nothing to due with gas prices and everything to do with GM being a backwards ass thinking company that for the most part still makes shitty products that people don't really want to buy, and just wind up buying because of heavy marketing and great lease deals/pricing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on April 12, 2019, 07:37:08 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 07:11:17 PM

the Volt and the Bolt were ugly pieces of shit and their complete and utter failure had nothing to due with gas prices and everything to do with GM being a backwards ass thinking company that for the most part still makes shitty products that people don't really want to buy, and just wind up buying because of heavy marketing and great lease deals/pricing.

so.... you liked them?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2019, 09:42:35 PM

Volt = garbage. One of my harbor mates had one. Couldn't wait to sell it, at 30% of his cost. Garbage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 09:43:28 AM

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/european-renewables-are-up-so-are-carbon-emissions#gs.5drd83 (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/european-renewables-are-up-so-are-carbon-emissions#gs.5drd83)

European Union carbon emissions grew 1.8 percent in 2017 despite a 25 percent increase in wind power and 6 percent growth in solar, figures show. The European statistics body Eurostat this month reported that carbon dioxide emissions rose last year in a majority of EU member states.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 09:46:27 AM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 07:11:17 PM

the Volt and the Bolt were ugly pieces of shit and their complete and utter failure had nothing to due with gas prices and everything to do with GM being a backwards ass thinking company that for the most part still makes shitty products that people don't really want to buy, and just wind up buying because of heavy marketing and great lease deals/pricing.

Chevy had a booth at the festival and I looked at a Bolt (again) for fun.  I thought it looked fine, but that is subjective.  I sat it in, decent room in it, I thought the overall layout was fine.  I don't think styling is holding it back.  It comparative cost, even after the $7500 tax credit (which is going away).  
I can get a roughly comparable Chevy Cruise hatchback for about $10,000 less, and the economics don't pay out for a long long time.
For a company that makes "shitty products", GM is doing remarkably well these days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 10:06:12 AM

Last year saw EU member states adding a record 15.6 gigawatts of wind power and 340 megawatts of solar. Wind represented 55.2 percent of all new power generation installed in 2017, with solar making up a further 21.3 percent. 
In contrast, new gas plants accounted for just 9.2 percent of capacity additions, and coal was a further 6.1 percent. Despite this, “the reduction of emissions blamed for climate change remains a challenge,” reported Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-carbon-climatechange/eu-carbon-emissions-rose-in-2017-eurostat-idUSKBN1I50YU). "
This is fascinating to me, the added a lot of wind power and a bit of solar and CO2 emissions keep edging higher.  This is basically my point that we're "toast" no matter what, and this is not even bringing China and India into the discussion.  We're going to "run the experiment".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 13, 2019, 12:13:01 PM

I'm kind of surprised & disappointed that any coal plants were built. Maybe they're more cost-effective in Europe for some reason?

To your point, someday we'll probably need to deploy carbon capture systems or something similar, though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 12:41:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 09:46:27 AM

For a company that makes "shitty products", GM is doing remarkably well these days.

They need to give marketing a big raise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2019, 01:21:15 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 07:00:25 PM

yeah it's getting crazy. it seems like nowadays they want to replace a stadium every 20-25 years. These megastructures were built to last a lot longer then that. Shit look at Michigan/OSU's football stadiums. They were both built in the 1920s and are still around.

Yup Rose Bowl opened up in 1922,Colosseum in 1923.Hell there are still amphitheaters from Greco-Roman times still in use for little productions in/around the mediterranean

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 01:26:50 PM

Camp Randall - 1917. Still ticking as the oldest in the Big Ten.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2019, 01:30:00 PM

Didn't know that - you get a Yuengling.I knew the camp was there from the War between the States but not the structure

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 03:14:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 09:46:27 AM

Chevy had a booth at the festival and I looked at a Bolt (again) for fun.  I thought it looked fine, but that is subjective.  I sat it in, decent room in it, I thought the overall layout was fine.  I don't think styling is holding it back.  It comparative cost, even after the $7500 tax credit (which is going away).  
I can get a roughly comparable Chevy Cruise hatchback for about $10,000 less, and the economics don't pay out for a long long time.
For a company that makes "shitty products", GM is doing remarkably well these days.

There is a bill to keep those tax credits going- $7,000 for 400,000 additional EVs past the 7,5000 @ 200k EVs. Whether it passes or not- who knows.
I wouldn't say GM is doing remarkably well considering they announced plans to close 4 plants, halted production on a bunch of new car models, and announced cuts 15,000+ jobs- all in the last 6 months. Are they doing much better than they were considering they went f'in bankrupt 10 years ago and had to get bailed out by the US gov't and tax payer? Sure. I guess they are doing reasonably well considering the shit show they put themselves in after going belly up by being a short-sighted ass backwards backwards thinking company that made dog shit product for decades. Remarkably well though? Hardly. This was the largest, greatest company in the world with a huge head start on every single one of it's competitors. It should've completely owned the present and the future. It doesn't. Tesla has the future on lock and the foreign autos have been kicking GM's dick in for the last 20 years plus.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 03:18:40 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 12:41:32 PM

They need to give marketing a big raise.

marketing and promotional deals is how Ford/GM/Chrysler sell most of their cars. People don't really want them. Most of the times it's all they can afford or they just get a great deal. If you ask someone to name a car they REALLY want, they'd LOVE to buy if money wasn't an issue- no one is buying any of their cars.
You see that especially in Michigan, where just about everyone has a hook up for some crazy employee pricing lease deal. That's why you only see GM/Ford/Chrysler cars in Michigan mostly. Go to another state in another region of the country where they can't get those kind of crazy deals and you see more foreign cars than domestic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 03:45:21 PM

I'm done buying cars that rattle after 3 months. My old Volvo with 345K miles on it had less rattles than my wife's new Tahoe back in the day. In fact, it only had one rattle period. Hers had God knows how many, and it didn't take long.



Rattling drives me bonkers. That's one thing I took from the old man. Of course, he was a Buick guy, so.. rattles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 04:26:28 PM

GM sold 8.4 million vehicles worldwide in 2018.  That's doing remarkably well if they sell shitty products.


They are hanging in there on profit as well.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 04:28:20 PM

I don't see how carbon capture can possible work at any scale.  The energy needed for it is immense.  Entropy and all that.

Europe has rushed into building up wind power, but their carbon emissions are still increasing.  That is my point, you can build wind as fast as possible and barely keep up with demand for new power.  We need something different, but fusion still appears to be a distant dream.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 06:39:43 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 04:26:28 PM

GM sold 8.4 million vehicles worldwide in 2018.  That's doing remarkably well if they sell shitty products.


They are hanging in there on profit as well.  

They aren't doing remarkably well, their sales were down across the board around the world in 2018 and it's trending that way again in 2019. And those numbers are currently good for 4th place Worldwide and they are on pace for 5th place worldwide. Hyundai is in 5th place right on their heels, Hyundai's sales were up 2% in 2018 while GM's were down 4%. In a year or two Hyundai will lap them for 4th place and GM will be 5th place world wide. Whoopdie fricken doo. Let's give them a real pat on the back for being the 4th place auto company on their way to 5th place in the world. They were the largest company in the entire world. Not auto company. Company. Period. For decades. And for decades more than 50% of all car sales in the US were GM. Now they are barely hanging onto 16 ish % US marketshare and Toyota is right on their ass with 15%. They had every advantage and opportunity in the world to change and adapt and be cutting edge and create new and innovative products that people loved. And they shit the bed at every single turn and they continue to shit the bed.

Btw a lot of GM world wide sales is bolstered by China- where they actually sell more cars there than they do in the states. And they have to share half that profit with Chinese state owned entities. And their car business is cratering in China right now. Most of their brands are down 30% in sales there. And the morons already shared all their tech with the Chinese, and in 10 1/2 years when all new auto in China will have to be EVs they are going to be left holding the bag with nothing to show. Wholly owned Chinese companies and Tesla and the Japanese and Europeans will dominate that market and GM will be left holding their pricks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 06:48:27 PM

The are doing "remarkably well if they sell shitty products".

Context is important.

They are doing "OK" in absolute terms.  They intend to sell fewer vehicles at higher profit margins.

Anyway, I don't see anything unique or world beating about the Tesla battery.  Looks to me like a lot of competition is about to hit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 07:35:34 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 06:48:27 PM

The are doing "remarkably well if they sell shitty products".

Context is important.

They are doing "OK" in absolute terms.  They intend to sell fewer vehicles at higher profit margins.

Anyway, I don't see anything unique or world beating about the Tesla battery.  Looks to me like a lot of competition is about to hit.

If you don't see anything unique or world beating about Tesla, than man, I don't know what to tell you. You really need to go drive one with the Ludicrous mode or drive the Model X with the falcon wing doors. They aren't just the best EVs you can buy, they are flat out some of the coolest, best peforming cars you can buy period.

Tesla has a huge advantage with their batteries and the cost they pay for them. How about it's currently $3,500 cheaper with better performance than the Porsche/Audi PPE platform that is still at least 2 years out- probably longer. That cost advantage for Tesla is only going to get bigger over time. Not smaller. They only have the gigafactory battery plant up and running in Nevada and they are building another battery factory/car factory in China right now.

Looks to me like they are way ahead of the competition. By a lot. And oh yeah, did I mention Tesla's customer retention rate is out of this world. By far the best in the industry. More than 80% of the time a Tesla owner goes to replace his car or buy a 2nd new car he buys a Tesla. That kind of customer loyalty in the car business is unheard of.

Porsche Taycan Pre-orders about 20,000. Same for Audi e-tron. Tesla Model 3 pre-orders? 500,000. The new $200,000 Roadster pre-order? 100,000 people tried pre-ordering one and they were only letting the first 1,000 pre-order it- and it crashed their website. They have a fan base and a following that other car companies can only dream of having. 100,000 people tried pre-ordering a $200,000 car. Porsche barely took 20,000 pre-orders for their Taycan. They don't have competition.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 11:26:39 PM

Tesla will be forgotten soon enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 14, 2019, 12:04:18 AM

At one point--oh, 6-8 years ago, I think--GM was selling one car model at a profit: the Corvette.  Everything else was losing money or being kept afloat by government subsidies.

You could take that as good news or bad news.  The bad news is how incompetent GM had to be at that time.  The good news is that it is at least somewhat better now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2019, 07:58:00 AM

The move by GM and Ford to focus on trucks and SUVs is probably necessary.  The move by GM to go heavily into EVs looks risky to me.  Maybe that is more PR than hard plans, we'll see.  The idea of Cadillac being SUVs and EV sedans is a large shift obviously.

The ATL has something like second most EVs in any city in the country because of state subsidies and HOV lane privileges.  I see them frequently on the roads, but I still wonder if they are mostly being bought by "early adopters" and "virtue signalers".  

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/automakers-flood-market-with-electric-vehicles--potentially-creating-pile-up-of-epic-proportions.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/automakers-flood-market-with-electric-vehicles--potentially-creating-pile-up-of-epic-proportions.html)

"There’s just one problem: while sales of battery-based vehicles are on the rise, they still constitute a minuscule fraction of the American, European and Japanese markets. And even though sales are growing in China, they still constitute less than 4 percent of that market’s total. So even as manufacturers push forward, many industry officials fear they could be at risk of wasting billions.

“The equations around electric aren’t making money,” Jack Hollis, general manager of the Toyota (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=7203.T-JP) brand, told trade publication Automotive News on Sunday after meeting with franchisees to discuss future product plans at the National Automobile Dealers Association convention in San Francisco."

Toyota may be playing this correctly, we'll see, emphasizing hybrids and waiting on full EVs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2019, 07:01:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 11:26:39 PM

Tesla will be forgotten soon enough.

Lmao. Great observation. You sound like that moron Bob Lutz.
You do realize that the Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in 2018 in terms of revenue and the #3 best selling car overall period, right?
You do realize that the Tesla Model S has been by far the best selling full size luxury sedan in the US in 2016, 2017, and 2018. 3 years straight, it has crushed the MB S Class, BMW 7 Series, Audi A8, Lexus LS, and Porsche Panamera. The Model S just absolutely crushes those cars in sales. And it is not even remotely close. They outsell most of those cars...COMBINED. And the Model S isn't a new model like the 3, it's been around since 2011. So whoops- there goes that theory that they'll be forgotten soon.
Don't take my word on Tesla's superiority over it's "competitors" though. Take renowned auto engineer Sandy Munro....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVnRQRdePp4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DucRxWz_58

Oh yeah, forgot to mention- Tesla has a HUGE advantage over all of it's competitors in autonomous driving. 1.1 BILLION real world miles of driving data for it's AI to learn from. Not bullshit simulation miles like Google's operation Waymo. Waymo doesn't even have 13 million real world miles driven. Tesla has 100x the data of REAL WORLD miles.

Oh yeah, also forgot to mention. The Model S gross margins were 20% when the car based at $100,000. The car now bases at $85,000 and their gross margins are up to 31%. Prices dropped and their margins went up. They'll be able to do the same thing with the Model 3 over time and sell a shit ton of them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 06:08:38 AM

Record tying snow yesterday - 5.4" is the most snow to ever fall in April, in Chicago history. Yay!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2019, 08:20:45 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 03:45:21 PM

I'm done buying cars that rattle after 3 months. My old Volvo with 345K miles on it had less rattles than my wife's new Tahoe back in the day. In fact, it only had one rattle period. Hers had God knows how many, and it didn't take long.



Rattling drives me bonkers. That's one thing I took from the old man. Of course, he was a Buick guy, so.. rattles.

i love my Tahoe so much I kept it even when I bought my new truck.  No rattles and the thing is bullet proof.  14 years old, nothing but standard maintenance.  The leather seats are cracking right where you'd expect, my i s c & a aggie wife insisted on those, personally I hate leather seats, especially in Texas summers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2019, 08:31:59 AM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2019, 07:01:47 PM

Lmao. Great observation. You sound like that moron Bob Lutz.
You do realize that the Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in 2018 in terms of revenue and the #3 best selling car overall period, right?

Tesla is what stock market pundits call a “story stock.......we'll never put capital to work in a company that has only a good fundamental story.” But, in fact, there’s more than one story here, and there are several very different reasons to invest, or not invest, in the innovative automaker. Some boosters want to be part of Elon Musk’s bold mission to change the world, while others simply see a company with meteoric growth and fanatical brand loyalty. Some skeptics point to the unlikelihood of a small startup scaling the auto industry’s proverbially punishing barriers to entry, while others just can’t get past Musk’s unconventional personality and snarky tweets.“Right now, it’s selling for two times trailing revenues, so it’s valued at $45 billion vs. $20 billion in sales. Had Tesla remained private, it would have a much higher valuation.”

Count Kate Warne, an Investment Strategist at Edward Jones, among the skeptics, at least for now. “We don’t follow Tesla. But part of the reason is, their debt’s junk-rated. We wouldn’t look at it until it becomes an investment grade. In general with companies, we’d look at the credit rating before we even look at other characteristics. We’d rather be later and not have quite as high returns but wait until the cash flows are more stable and bondholders can be a little more comfortable. What we’ve seen with visionary leaders leading innovation, whether it’s Jeff Bezos or Steve Jobs or Elon Musk, is behavior that is really born out of the frustration associated with short-term thinking in the equity markets. And they just don’t understand how we can’t understand.”

FWIW consumer advocate Clark Howard told a caller he wouldn't recommend their stock right now.Who really knows but price of the vehicles would have to come way down for me to even test drive one

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2019, 10:56:58 AM

I think anyone who discounts the competition coming in the EV market is missing a point.  Let's presume Audi et al. have a cost disadvantage.  (I presume since the Bolt's battery is basically on a part with that of the Tesla there is no battery density advantage.)  Let's presume the e-Tron is produced, which seems certain, and is competitive with Tesla whichever model on the merits.  Audi is going to sell them one way or the other even if they have to discount them and take a loss on each.  They can do that as long as they choose because they have profits from other vehicles.  So can Volvo, and GM, and Mercedes, etc.  Maybe they aren't as good, we won't know, but they will be sold.

There will be competition in the EV market that diminishes Tesla's prospects going forward.  That is one reason Tesla's stock price has been languishing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2019, 12:42:46 PM

Fundamentally, I think Tesla's problem is that while it has first mover advantage, it doesn't have enough capital to continue expansion and doesn't have enough of a technical moat over the competition to beat them out when companies who know how to make cars start getting into the game. 

This is a common problem in companies with first mover advantage in a market similar but adjacent to a larger market. 

I saw this years ago in enterprise SSDs. Companies like STEC and FusionIO were creating amazing products that were far beyond anything anyone else had, and they were creating market demand by supplying products that didn't have competition from the major storage vendors. They were flying high. But once the competition started catching up, they became acquisition targets by the big boys at far lower prices than they would have commanded at their peaks. 

They simply couldn't scale. They had technology, but not enough of a technology lead to remain freestanding companies. And because the biggest cost of enterprise SSDs is NAND, which neither company made, once the technology of other vendors caught up they had a pricing disadvantage. FusionIO was acquired by SanDisk [who is vertically integrated in NAND] and STEC was acquired by WDC*/HGST, a behemoth of the HDD industry which later acquired SanDisk to become vertically integrated in NAND.

I think Tesla has a similar problem. The behavior over the last quarter suggests that they're seriously cash-constrained. They hastily announced a Model Y hoping for a big influx of reservation cash like they had with the Model 3. It didn't materialize. They're laying off salespeople and closing retail locations. They're lowering prices [signaling a demand problem]. They're starting a lease program that appears to be a way to turn languishing inventory into immediate cash, but without a leasing partner to help shoulder the financial burden suggesting they're trying to get in hand cash now, also signaling a demand problem. Their bonds are slightly better than junk, so raising capital through bonds is hard, and they might be able to keep going if they try to issue a capital raise, but for some reason they have been unable or unwilling to do so.

Their cars appear to be pretty damn good. And the people who are pro-Tesla think that's enough for them to survive. Problem is that they're a company, and a company has to make money. And it doesn't appear they have a viable model to do so right now, so they're flailing around trying to save enough cash to keep the lights on.

Their technical moat is insufficient IMHO. Their only real technical advantage is battery-related, and it's unclear how much of that is Tesla and how much is Panasonic. Autopilot is nice, but I think the timeframe to actually get to autonomous / full self driving is far enough out that even if they had a lead and would be first to market, the survival of the company is a shorter term concern than what FSD can offer. 

Tesla is in trouble.

* Disclosure: I work for WDC, which acquired the companies who acquired STEC and FusionIO.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2019, 01:07:49 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/cadillac-super-cruise-autonomous-driving-review.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/cadillac-super-cruise-autonomous-driving-review.html)

I tested Cadillac’s new Super Cruise autonomous driving system in a brand new 2018 CT6 (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/2018-cadillac-ct6-platinum-awd-review.html), and I’m convinced it’s way better than anything else on the market, including Volvo’s Pilot Assist and, yes, even Tesla Autopilot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 07:55:43 PM

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/ct-met-will-county-dam-removal-petition-20190415-story.html


Citizens seek swift removal of Will County dam on DuPage River where couple recently drowned

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.trbimg.com%2Fimg-5cb50120%2Fturbine%2Fct-1555366169-5my0l90cvh-snap-image%2F1600%2F1600x900&hash=205530652ec6d71cff67cec796d9043c)
A sign warns of the hazard at the dam on the DuPage River at the Hammel Woods Forest Preserve in Shorewood. A petition is circulating to seek removal of the dam, which was the scene of the drowning deaths of two people recently. (Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune)


he recent drownings of a young couple in the DuPage River have prompted calls for Will County Forest Preserve officials to speed up the removal of a dam in Shorewood.
James Kennedy, of Shorewood, launched a petition April 3 on change.org (https://www.change.org/p/village-of-shorewood-accelerate-removal-of-the-hammel-woods-dam-in-shorewood-il-8741c7fe-65c3-403a-af26-2f1bac20f591) after Hannah Tammeling, 22, of Plainfield (https://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/chicago-suburbs/plainfield-CHIS0064-topic.html), and Abraham Ramos, 28, of Palatine, drowned in the river near the dam at the Hammel Woods Forest Preserve. Their bodies were found April 1 about a half-mile from where witnesses had seen them struggling in the river near the dam the day before.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2019, 08:20:53 PM

Is that river at normal level, Badge?

Low-water dams like that are just drownings waiting to happen.

We've got one on the Arkansas River about a mile south of downtown Tulsa, complete with all the expected warning signage.  And there are proposals to put in more, so that the "river" will effectively become a series of ponds held in by low-water dams.  The one we already have has claimed several victims over the years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 08:29:41 PM

Yep, that was just a little above normal, whatever normal is these days. Dams are just dangerous on all levels. People see a "low head" dam like this and think they can manage it. Nope. Low head is a misnomer, in that it's only low head when it comes to gravity. There is much more to head than gravity, not to mention the risks of increased velocity and hydraulic jump.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2019, 08:48:39 PM

I bought a new car in July and assume it'll be the last combustion-engine car I'll have.  While EVs may only be a tiny share of the market now, there will be a tipping point and that tipping point will occur seemingly suddenly.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 08:56:26 PM

I'm in negotiations on this now. I might couple it with a new SUV for Mrs. 847. It's all about the deal though. I don't need a new car. But, It might be my last one, and hers, so who knows.



(https://motorwerks.mercedesdealer.com/inventoryphotos/2559/wddxj8fb8ga014421/ip/1.jpg?height=400)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 07:38:52 AM

I saw a lot of those in Massachusettes on our recent visit.  We walked a good bit along the Charles River.  These are mostly 150 year old structures obviously.  The look "quaint".

We saw a purpose built town in western MA along the Connecticut River that was quite interesting, had a nice lunch there.  I remain amazed how much construction could be done in 1868.  

The village of Turners Falls was founded in 1868 as a planned industrial community according to the plan of Alvah Crocker, a prominent man from Fitchburg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitchburg,_Massachusetts) who envisioned in the immense power of the waterfalls the means of establishing a great city. Crocker was influenced by other, earlier and successful experiments in Lowell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lowell,_Massachusetts) and elsewhere. Crocker's vision was to attract industry to the town by offering cheap hydropower (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydropower) that was made by the harnessing of the Connecticut River (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut_River), through the construction of a dam and canal. His development concept was to sell mill sites along the power canal to those companies and to sell individual building lots to mill workers who would come to work in the mills. The rest of the village was laid out in a horizontal grid pattern with cross streets numerically. Avenue A, the main commercial district, was designed as a grand tree lined avenue.^{[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turners_Falls,_Massachusetts#cite_note-6)}

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2019, 08:00:20 AM

Vehicle negotiations stalled last night, by the way. We'll see if he calls me back today. I suspect he will, but we'll see. I told him I don't need to do this, and I mean that. I'm cool with what we have, but I could see that changing when we move. We'll need a bigger SUV, I think?? I'm fine with my car. Sometimes I wonder if we would even need to have 2 vehicles. Maybe one and a golf cart or something. Those are electric, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 08:17:07 AM

We moved to one car of course, and it works well for us because one of us can walk to just about anything we might need if the other is out with the car.

Then there is Uber/Lyft of course.

The future of autonomous vehicles - whenever that arrives - could mean fewer and fewer car owning households.  Imagine getting to work by scheduling a Uber at the same time each day and it drives you to work, and picks you up at night.  That could cost less than owning a vehicle.  The vehicle could easily be an EV, and probably will be.

I read somewhere that the demand for new electricity would grow by 8% if every car in the US were an EV, but I've since read other places that it is more like 25%.  That would be significant, even if it happens over a 15 year period or more.  

Our future could feature very few privately owned vehicles, probably mostly larger SUVs for vacations etc. and trucks.  Maybe this is what GM and Ford are seeing as well.

I'm not sure high speed rail is going to be needed, the US may simply bypass that development.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2019, 08:49:43 AM

I suspect we'll always want one vehicle but I could certainly see alternative forms of transportation eliminating the need for a second.  Right now I telecommute 3-4 days per week anyway.  Covering the other 1-2 days with some combination of uber, light rail, and perhaps even city buses would be do-able.

When I was back in grad school, I took the bus from the suburbs down to campus every day and it worked really well-- gave me plenty of time to read and review cases, and even capture some of the written work I needed to do on the laptop.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 08:57:40 AM

I usually took the bus or my bicycle to grad school.  Parking was a problem of course.

I was also getting by on about $5 K a year.  My starting salary when I got a job felt like I was rich.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 09:51:27 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2019, 08:00:20 AM

Vehicle negotiations stalled last night, by the way. We'll see if he calls me back today. I suspect he will, but we'll see. I told him I don't need to do this, and I mean that. I'm cool with what we have, but I could see that changing when we move. 

Well played i read a book/pamphlet Show Room Strategies years ago.Appearing indifferent and not needy will definitely give you more leverage.Not certain if it still applies but waving cash was a biggie at least back then

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 10:04:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 08:17:07 AM

 Imagine getting to work by scheduling a Uber at the same time each day and it drives you to work, and picks you up at night.  That could cost less than owning a vehicle.  The vehicle could easily be an EV, and probably will be.

I have a hard time believing that electric cars will work well in a normal midwest winter.At least at this present stage sans global warming.Those will need to be some hefty ass batteries and what will the cost of charging them be?Like 847 posted his friend wasn't enamored with the bill/cost

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 10:10:08 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 08:56:26 PM

I'm in negotiations on this now. 



(https://motorwerks.mercedesdealer.com/inventoryphotos/2559/wddxj8fb8ga014421/ip/1.jpg?height=400)

BASTAGE!
My next ride
(https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amish-cart-on-road-bright-450w-186422903.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 11:28:15 AM

The weather here today is spectacular.  It was cool this AM but supposed to hit 70°F this PM.  We're headed to Stone Mountain with some sammiches.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 11:45:24 AM

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27128160/2020-cadillac-ct5-photos-info/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR3RPTxLMgRZDxBRzVFPI2-RZaz9CBKSgoLN5W4-XN7H9h84f8-L3KVgz78 (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27128160/2020-cadillac-ct5-photos-info/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR3RPTxLMgRZDxBRzVFPI2-RZaz9CBKSgoLN5W4-XN7H9h84f8-L3KVgz78)

Speaking of cars, Cadillac tries again with a tweener.  If I ran Caddy, I'd probably have this as the only sedan offering and make money on the SUVs.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27156309/cadillac-ct5-v-future-performance-sedan/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR0unYGqdCXLs6FXWx6ljkPOFnnK_lhFtcF7RUiih3aLlreNDmKywOYwv9E (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27156309/cadillac-ct5-v-future-performance-sedan/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR0unYGqdCXLs6FXWx6ljkPOFnnK_lhFtcF7RUiih3aLlreNDmKywOYwv9E)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 12:11:48 PM

(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t45.1600-4/cp0/q90/spS444/p180x540/58017710_23843331603710034_6351292926022123520_n.png.jpg?_nc_cat=105&efg=eyJxZV9ncm91cHMiOlsibm9fc2FmZV9pbWFnZV9mb3JfYWRzX2ltYWdlIl19&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=cc415c27c3c914c765838cac760e459c&oe=5D77C872)

View from the park of where we live, in the fall of course.  This photo is a couple years old and the skyline has filled in some since then.  A 29 story apt building was just finished on the outside, they told us 19 months from start to finish and on budget.  

And more stuff is on the way apparently.  It's almost scary.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/15/18311273/residential-tower-gothic-st-marks-midtown-peachtree (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/15/18311273/residential-tower-gothic-st-marks-midtown-peachtree)

For badger, the ground here is a thin skin on top of granite, so good for foundations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2019, 12:47:01 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 09:51:27 AM

Well played i read a book/pamphlet Show Room Strategies years ago.Appearing indifferent and not needy will definitely give you more leverage.Not certain if it still applies but waving cash was a biggie at least back then

waving cash and being indifferent hasn't helped with buying a 2008-2012 Vette
I think the new mid-engine C8 being pushed back is most of the problem
I'll wait until this fall when the new Vettes are being delivered

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2019, 01:47:05 PM

I like my little hatchback.  It can hold all my camping gear that I fit in my Jeep (ZJ).  I just can't drive anywhere I want anymore.  I do miss it, though.  Just the ability to go anywhere....but I don't miss the lack of AC, the constant issues resulting in searching for 25 year old parts.  I live in an urban setting now, so the good-gas-mileage, rear-camera, cold AC car makes sense.

I was able to sell my boat, so I've sort of reeled in all my possessions and nickel-and-dime costs.  I need to pay off my credit cards before venturing out into my next poor financial decision fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 16, 2019, 04:54:11 PM

Electrification of transportation and other sectors is the last real opportunity for growth for electric utilities, which is why they're all in favor of it, while the oil & gas companies are resisting it, of course.

EV sales will probably grow exponentially (especially in countries that have a deadline for cars with combustion engines) but in terms of cars on the road the transition is going to be slower than it could be, no different than how investment in new coal generation is essentially dead and it's dying for natural gas now, but the retirement of those plants and their decline in market share isn't going to occur overnight, of course.... That said, if more US states incentivize EVs like they've incentivized renewables, then that could expedite the transition.

Automation is the variable in all of this, of course. Autonomous technology is more compatible with electric vehicles to complement mass transit, and same goes for local commercial / municipal vehicles (for long-distance freight/trucking that's a different story, of course, regardless of what capacity the batteries can get to increase range).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2019, 05:03:56 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 16, 2019, 04:54:11 PM

Automation is the variable in all of this, of course. Autonomous technology is more compatible with electric vehicles to complement mass transit, and same goes for local commercial / municipal vehicles (for long-distance freight/trucking that's a different story, of course, regardless of what capacity the batteries can get to increase range).

Why do you say autonomous technology is more compatible with electric? Whether it's gas or electricity, they need to recharge/refuel periodically. I don't see how autonomous transport necessarily does any better there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 05:50:39 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2019, 12:47:01 PM

I'll wait until this fall when the new Vettes are being delivered

If you're going to procure a Plastic-Fantastic ya might want to fore go any Shark Water Tailgates or Keggs & Eggs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2019, 08:42:14 PM

A dealer that lives down the street confirms what i read in wsj recently.  The margins have shrunk on sales.  If anything cash offers embolden them.  Dealers clear much healthier margins by getting a taste of the financing and on sales of accessories or after market service arrangements .

This was our experience in buying wife's Subaru this winter.  They were fine w us driving to nearby Lafayette to buy it for the price we had from WLaf.  They know what they are doing, the vehicle we wanted would be sold within a few days after we walked.  All they would do is bargain on a service or maintenance package.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2019, 09:59:06 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 09:51:27 AM

Well played i read a book/pamphlet Show Room Strategies years ago.Appearing indifferent and not needy will definitely give you more leverage.Not certain if it still applies but waving cash was a biggie at least back then

I walked on it. Still thinking of upgrading the Mrs. though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 07:35:08 AM

When we bought the VW, our salesman told us he could get us a better deal if we financed part of it.  The loan was 1.9% over 60 months, so I took it.  Their initial offer was lower than I was prepared to spend.  We dickered a little bit on some options and that was that.

I thought I'd get maybe $3000 off list and they offered $5K out of the gate.  It wasn't the color I preferred, but I like it fine.

I think large volume dealers just move cars and make profit on numbers, incentives for selling X per month.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2019, 08:22:17 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2019, 05:03:56 PM

Why do you say autonomous technology is more compatible with electric? Whether it's gas or electricity, they need to recharge/refuel periodically. I don't see how autonomous transport necessarily does any better there.

I suppose one thought here is that it's easier/safer for an autonomous vehicle to plug itself into an electrical outlet, than it is to "gas up?"  
But there are plenty of automated fueling systems out there in the world, and as of 2017 that includes the automated refueling of jets in-flight, so I'm reasonably certain safe processes and technology could be implemented.  It might not be particularly cheap, though.  And even the safest systems are going to have some margin of error.  Mistakes in automated refueling of gas/diesel/propane/natural gas vehicles have the potential to be more disastrous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:30:18 AM

Back in 1980, I was fresh out of grad school and on to a new job.  Gasoline was $1.16 a gallon, for off brand "low lead".  My car was a relative gas hog with a low compression 5.7 L engine.  I was certain gas prices would be headed higher routinely, so I wanted something more efficient, and bought one in 1984 that doubled the mpgs I got on the highway (and was painfully slow, but we had a 55 mph speed limit too).  I had read about "zero petroleum by 2000" etc.  I wondered if there would be enough to make chemicals.

All that has made me very circumspect about "expert predictions" 10+ years off.  They usually sound good, but very often are nonsense.  There was a well known expert in the day called Faith Popcorn of all things that made her living on such things and wrote books which I read, and nearly everything she predicted turned out to be rubbish.

I was convinced we'd have colonies on Mars by now.  It's 2019.  I was convinced the reciprocating internal combustion engine would be long gone replaced with something sensible, perhaps fuel cells, perhaps turbines, Wankels, something.  I figured tires were as good as they'd ever get.  I figured a 4 speed transmission was clearly as many gears as we'd ever need.

So, gas prices around here range $2.50-$3.00/gallon right now for regular.  On an inflation adjusted basis, gas should cost $3.60/gallon.  And we've gone to full unleaded which is more expensive to produce of course.

We have more forests today in the US than in 1900 by a large margin.  We were looking out over the ATL yesterday from the summit of Stone Mountain and it's nearly all a green canopy.  Places like the Smoky Mountains were almost denuded of trees by 1920, and now are completely covered (almost).  Sometimes, the dot dot dot method of prediction just doesn't work.

The problem with predicting climate is that the models have to be derived based on what has happened to date.  And it's far from easy to collect even simple things like mean global temperature.  The impact of rising CO2 levels ALONE would be only tenths of a degree, it's the forcing factors added to the model that turn that into something dire.  And that makes sense, a melting ice cap decreases the albedo of the planet leading to more warming, moisture levels may change leading to more cloud cover, etc.  It's a massively complex system, and I don't think any of the models are really very good.  Maybe one is by accident.  Of course that includes the possibility that it turns out to be worse than the models predict, we might have massive permafrost melting that releases more methane and things spiral out of control.

I still don't see a viable means of controlling CO2 emissions.  Europe has invested heavily in wind and solar, and their CO2 emissions have been rising faster than those in the US, where we've seen declines over the past years (in part because we have been energy hogs).  So, I hope for the best, I don't think humans are really going to reduce CO2 emissions any time soon.  "We" sign pieces of paper in lieu of real hard plans.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:31:09 AM

Inductively recharging cars while they drive is an interesting possibility.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:34:27 AM

I think I've mentioned this before, but imagine the following for intercity transport:

1.  Special lanes dedicated to EVs that have inductive charging of the cars (for tolls).
2.  EVs operating in condensed packets autonomously controlled and interlinked traveling at say 120 mph.
3.  The lead car might be a clone to break the wind.
4.  When cars near an exit, they break out of the packet and simply move right to exit with a full charge.
5.  The packet rejoins with a foot separation between vehicles.

No need for HSR in this scenario.  We'd need standardized batteries and inductive hookups of course, and autonomous driving.  The cars might all be "rentals".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:35:31 AM

I've seen the Mississippi at its source  - no levies there anywhere.

Ha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 09:06:45 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2019, 05:03:56 PM

Why do you say autonomous technology is more compatible with electric? Whether it's gas or electricity, they need to recharge/refuel periodically. I don't see how autonomous transport necessarily does any better there.

I thought this was a good question. My guesses are these:
(1) that mainly there isn't a *need* for autonomous vehicles to also be EVs, but that it helps on the social side because people who want EVs are probably much less resistant to car autonomy than people who prefer internal combustion.
(2) autonomous fill-ups (whether by gas, electric outlet or wireless recharging) seem easier without gasoline. Wireless recharging (a reachable but further-off industry dream) sounds especially seemless, which does pair the EV and AV technology better together than AVs with gasoline.
(3) Then after that, a question: Aren't ANs going to require a computer to have its thumb on all the moment by moment stats for your vehicle (and perhaps for every vehicle in your vicinity)? If so, having fewer moving parts could make EVs more amenable to the switch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2019, 09:08:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:31:09 AM

Inductively recharging cars while they drive is an interesting possibility.

There you go again with your golderned electromagnetism.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2019, 09:14:09 AM

Ya really who's the Engineer around here......not me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 10:03:00 AM

I just assume it'll be like in the movie "Minority Report" - cars on a track, all automated.  You type in where you want to go, it takes you - basically like those old, crumby toy cars on a track that would always fly off.  
In the movie, they went up vertical walls, but that wouldn't be necessary. And instead of open-air roads, I don't see why they wouldn't be halfway buried to let greenery grow over them so they'd be invisible from above...unless there's some solar component to it.


In 50 years, owning a "normal" car/truck/jeep will be like owning a boat now - an extra expense few can afford, which allows you to escape where 95% of other people can't go.  A luxury item.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 10:05:17 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:34:27 AM

I think I've mentioned this before, but imagine the following for intercity transport:

1.  Special lanes dedicated to EVs that have inductive charging of the cars (for tolls).
2.  EVs operating in condensed packets autonomously controlled and interlinked traveling at say 120 mph.
3.  The lead car might be a clone to break the wind.
4.  When cars near an exit, they break out of the packet and simply move right to exit with a full charge.
5.  The packet rejoins with a foot separation between vehicles.

No need for HSR in this scenario.  We'd need standardized batteries and inductive hookups of course, and autonomous driving.  The cars might all be "rentals".

This will be called the "fart car" by everyone within 6 months of it existing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 10:46:50 AM

I don't think the cars in Minority Report were on tracks. They were on roads. True, they didn't seem to have wheels, but "track" implies a limited degree of freedom, not to mention a physical connection, as with roller coaster, trolleys and trains. The movie's roads were trackless. I don't think the plot ever rigorously addressed their engineering, so one mmight speculate the roads exhibited magnetic fields to float the vehicles.

Likewise, tracks in real life are unrealistic. Mechanical contact points (extra wear/tear) are a bad idea and limiting the system's degrees of freedom is not necessary.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 10:55:00 AM

The problem with flying or trains or buses is what you do when you get "there".  Uber/Lyft are solving that today.  But people like their personal cars obviously.

I'm looking at a possibility for preserving that desire while also providing for energy efficiency high speed transportation.  Otherwise, folks are fighting what humans really want.

Gwinnett County here just voted against joining the "subway/bus system".  It's the second most populated county in the state.  We were out that way yesterday and really had to fight traffic coming home, the wife was amazed how bad it was at 4 PM.  We rarely drive anywhere except between 10 AM and 3 PM, and then we don't go far, usually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 11:12:19 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 10:46:50 AM

I don't think the cars in Minority Report were on tracks. They were on roads. True, they didn't seem to have wheels, but "track" implies a limited degree of freedom, not to mention a physical connection, as with roller coaster, trolleys and trains. The movie's roads were trackless. I don't think the plot ever rigorously addressed their engineering, so one mmight speculate the roads exhibited magnetic fields to float the vehicles.

Likewise, tracks in real life are unrealistic. Mechanical contact points (extra wear/tear) are a bad idea and limiting the system's degrees of freedom is not necessary.

Steel on steel is MUCH more efficient than rubber on asphalt. I don't know for certain, but I'm pretty sure the idea of magnetic levitation would require a great deal more energy than simple steel on steel. 
Nonetheless, the future of transportation infrastructure is interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 11:38:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 10:55:00 AM

The problem with flying or trains or buses is what you do when you get "there".  Uber/Lyft are solving that today.  But people like their personal cars obviously.

I'm looking at a possibility for preserving that desire while also providing for energy efficiency high speed transportation.  Otherwise, folks are fighting what humans really want.

Gwinnett County here just voted against joining the "subway/bus system".  It's the second most populated county in the state.  We were out that way yesterday and really had to fight traffic coming home, the wife was amazed how bad it was at 4 PM.  We rarely drive anywhere except between 10 AM and 3 PM, and then we don't go far, usually.

I agreed with almost all of this, especially the first half about not limiting user freedom, though I'm not sure we can conclude what voters want based on the outcome in Gwinnett. I'll admit that's one of countless similar votes in recent decades. But this has become a partisan issue as well funded as any, and its tactics are cleverly fear-based, so we should call both of these things plausible: maybe people really are voting in their interests when they vote against mass transit or maybe they are being duped to vote outside their interests. The second is always a possibility when a crafty campaigner say "oh the demographics will change, property values will drop, taxes will soar, etc."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 11:40:12 AM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 11:12:19 AM

Steel on steel is MUCH more efficient than rubber on asphalt. I don't know for certain, but I'm pretty sure the idea of magnetic levitation would require a great deal more energy than simple steel on steel.
Nonetheless, the future of transportation infrastructure is interesting.

True. But also much more limiting. People like to turn and go as the please. Futures that don't match the "as they please" have a habit of not happening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 11:45:02 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2019, 08:22:17 AM

I suppose one thought here is that it's easier/safer for an autonomous vehicle to plug itself into an electrical outlet, than it is to "gas up?"  
But there are plenty of automated fueling systems out there in the world, and as of 2017 that includes the automated refueling of jets in-flight, so I'm reasonably certain safe processes and technology could be implemented.  It might not be particularly cheap, though.  And even the safest systems are going to have some margin of error.  Mistakes in automated refueling of gas/diesel/propane/natural gas vehicles have the potential to be more disastrous.

Autonomous vehicles don't have to fuel themselves; they just need to safely drive to the fueling station.
There are still two states which have mandated full-service gas stations, NJ and OR. I would see autonomous ride-hailing as being much more feasible if we simply return to full-service fueling/charging stations. Paying someone minimum wage to plug and unplug a fuel hose or charging cable all day still gives you all the savings of not paying actual drivers in the cars, so it's a net huge savings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 11:51:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 10:55:00 AM

Gwinnett County here just voted against joining the "subway/bus system".  It's the second most populated county in the state.  We were out that way yesterday and really had to fight traffic coming home, the wife was amazed how bad it was at 4 PM.  We rarely drive anywhere except between 10 AM and 3 PM, and then we don't go far, usually.

There were a lot of discussions about that when I lived in Marietta and they were talking about expanding MARTA up to Cobb County. There was a LOT of pushback. Generally it was based on two things:

• The number of people computing from Cobb to Atlanta was a lot lower than the number of people computing from within Cobb to their jobs within Cobb. A lot of people in Cobb didn't have any reason to go into Atlanta much.
• MARTA was seen as a way of enabling the element that people in Cobb were *trying* to keep out of Cobb of bringing them in. Cobb folks didn't want to enable that. Yes, it's blatantly racist and/or classist, but if you claim it wasn't happening I think that would be delusional.

I suspect the demographics in Gwinnett are similar enough. The people who live there do so because they want to live near Atlanta, not because they want to deal with the things they perceive as the negatives of Atlanta on a daily basis.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 11:56:46 AM

As an electrical engineer, I'm just going to say that equipping our highways with the infrastructure of inductive electric charging while driving [especially at highway speeds], and making it efficient and cost-effective enough to justify the investment, is currently too fanciful to rely on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:10:38 PM

Gwinnett county demographics have changed a lot since the earlier votes against MARTA on racial grounds.

The racial makeup of the county was 53.3% White, 23.6% black or African American, 10.6% Asian, 0.5% American Indian, 0.1%Pacific Islander, 8.8% from other races, and 3.1% from two or more races. Those of Hispanic or Latino origin made up 20.1% of the population.

But I think too many living out there rarely come into Atlanta, so an extension of the rapid transit would not be of value to them, and it would be completed in 8 years or so.

Cobb county in the NW may vote on this next year, and Gwinnett may vote again in November, they think turnout was a factor.  The traffic here is ridiculous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:11:18 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 17, 2019, 11:56:46 AM

As an electrical engineer, I'm just going to say that equipping our highways with the infrastructure of inductive electric charging while driving [especially at highway speeds], and making it efficient and cost-effective enough to justify the investment, is currently too fanciful to rely on.

How would it compare with high speed rail?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 12:19:12 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 17, 2019, 11:56:46 AM

As an electrical engineer, I'm just going to say that equipping our highways with the infrastructure of inductive electric charging while driving [especially at highway speeds], and making it efficient and cost-effective enough to justify the investment, is currently too fanciful to rely on.

So, no 440V then?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 12:20:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:10:38 PM

Gwinnett county demographics have changed a lot since the earlier votes against MARTA on racial grounds.

The racial makeup of the county was 53.3% White, 23.6% black or African American, 10.6% Asian, 0.5% American Indian, 0.1%Pacific Islander, 8.8% from other races, and 3.1% from two or more races. Those of Hispanic or Latino origin made up 20.1% of the population.

But I think too many living out there rarely come into Atlanta, so an extension of the rapid transit would not be of value to them, and it would be completed in 8 years or so.

Cobb county in the NW may vote on this next year, and Gwinnett may vote again in November, they think turnout was a factor.  The traffic here is ridiculous.

Here, Metra ridership is basically down or trending flat across all the lines. Lots of people work from home now, which is a good thing for people with discipline. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:24:29 PM

People do work from home, but you wouldn't know it trying to drive anywhere around here.  The metro area adds nearly 100,000 people a year, most are going further and further out.  The city has been growing over the past 20 years or so after the usual declines.  But the metro area population is more than 10x the Atlanta city population.  Sprawl.

I wish we at least had a subway out to the baseball field, it's in a terrible traffic area, brilliant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 01:18:54 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 11:40:12 AM

True. But also much more limiting. People like to turn and go as the please. Futures that don't match the "as they please" have a habit of not happening.

But if we're talking about a major infrastructure change, of the sort that would allow autonomous vehicles to travel as proposed above, it might not be that difficult to design such a system on rails (certainly a lot less expensive than the inductive charge while traveling).
A further step here is just not having a battery on board at all (or at least not a very big one), and instead operating from power supplied in the road (potentially by wire).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 01:32:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:11:18 PM

How would it compare with high speed rail?

The economics of HSR are usually terrible as well. In most of the US, HSR is just not a feasible mode of transport, because the country is too large and too spread out. For most of us, the car or air travel is more useful.
Consider where I live--Orange County, CA. There is a HUGE link [especially for tech workers] between the LA metro and the SF/Silicon Valley metro areas. And it's a close enough distance that it is feasible for vacationers, weekend trips, etc.
For me to fly:
25 minute drive to John Wayne Airport
About an hour parking/security/waiting for flight (it's a small enough airport that you don't need to burn 2 hrs)
An hour flying to either SJC or SFO (both are well-located)
Uber or mass transit within the city
Total transit time: About 3 hours, give or take.
Cost: ~$200 round trip if I find decent fares, not counting parking or uber. Sometimes better. Sometimes worse. That's per-person though.
Schedule: About a dozen flights each way daily.
For me to drive:
About 388 miles to downtown San Jose. 430 to downtown SF.
Transit time: Depends highly on departure time. 5 1/2 - 6 1/2 hours assuming little traffic, but getting through LA is a bitch, so that's probably closer to 7 - 7 1/2.
Cost: ~$160 r/t gas costs in the Flex. Can be amortized over up to 7 passengers in the Flex though. Realistically driving is the "low-cost" option as long as it's two or more people.
Schedule: Up to me.
HSR:
Drive or Uber to Anaheim from home (25 minutes). Assume 20 minute buffer (to ensure I'm there on time) before boarding first train. Take Metrolink from Anaheim to Los Angeles. Change trains to take HSR from Los Angeles to San Jose, all on dedicated HSR tracks, but with stops in Burbank, Palmdale, Bakersfield, Tulare, Fresno, Merced, and Gilroy. Change trains again to go from San Jose to SF on existing or upgraded CalTrans tracks. Conservatively 
assume minimum of 10 minutes at each stop on the HSR, and we'll say 20 minutes for changing trains. 
Transit time: 25 minutes driving plus 2 hrs 10 minutes for time where trains are stopped or I'm waiting for the next train. Already at almost 3 hours. Assuming transit time (aggressively) of 2 1/2 hours in between all those stops, we're already at 5 1/2 hours. That's fantasy, however, as apparently the expected maximum speed of the train is 220 mph
Cost: Really tough to identify actual cost and how much is "fare" vs how much is subsidized. I'm seeing somewhere on the order of $86 one-way fare, plus $29 from Anaheim to LA, and optional $22 more if I'm terminating in SF rather than San Jose. So we're looking at >$200 round trip, not including cost of parking or Uber. And of course that's per-passenger, so cannot be amortized across multiple passengers like a car trip. 
The economic assumptions that HSR advocates include are always INCREDIBLY rosy about ridership. So whether they can offer the number of daily trains they want, at a fare people will accept, with the knowledge that the total transit time is probably 2x air travel, is probably complete fantasy. 
This is particularly true due to the ease of the route via air. I've mentioned that there is a huge business travel component here. I've gone from Orange County to San Jose several times on the 6:45 AM flight, and come back same-day on an evening flight. Given I always target the back of the plane on Southwest, I can't tell you how many times I've been sitting in the row in the evening with the same people I was sitting in the row with on that morning flight. Same-day round trip travel is common on this routing, and for business travelers, that's completely blown up with a 6+ hour total transit time. 
For business travelers, flying is the only option. For a single person or a couple vacationing for whom transit time is more important than cost, flying is the better option. For a couple or family pinching their pennies, driving is the cheaper option with similar transit time.
Conclusion:
HSR is likely more expensive than flying while being slower. It's more expensive to MUCH more expensive than driving [depending on number of passengers] despite being similar overall transit time, even including traffic. It's not feasible for business travelers, who are the mainstay of the route, and too expensive for vacationing families with no benefit. And this LA/SF route is considered one of the "better" HSR routes economically outside of the DC/NY/Boston corridor. It fundamentally makes very little sense. 
Assuming the technical feasibility of inductive wireless charging and autonomous driving be satisfied, I don't know if the cost per mile would be higher or lower than HSR. But I think the overall economics would greatly favor the wireless charging and autonomous driving, and the users would prefer it. The freedom and scheduling makes much more sense, and if the route could be set up with cars basically becoming trains at high speed [100+ mph] and with close following distances to reduce air drag, the speed and lack of traffic jams dramatically improves the user experience of driving, as does the autonomous aspect [less fatigue/etc, safer in general]. 
So IMHO electrified autonomous driving makes a great deal of sense if we can work out the technical/cost aspects. I think the wireless inductive on-road charging may never occur, but that's NOT even critical to the advantages of autonomous driving with cars communicating with each other (increased speed / reduced air drag). It's just a nice bonus. 
And either way, HSR is silly. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 01:44:28 PM

All I know is that our transportation infrastructure is embarrassing, considering the possibilities.  Whether they're tracks or electromagnetics or whatever, it needs to happen.  The existing infrastructure of railroads laid 100+ years ago and the highway system laid 50+ years ago is unacceptable.

I've always found it odd that there's no major in-between:  either drive and maintain a vehicle yourself, on roads, at about 60 mph OR trust the expertise of others, 7 miles up, going 600 mph.  How are there not 10 viable options between these two choices?!?!?!




Think of what we could do with one year's worth of the defense budget pointed towards transportation infrastructure overhaul.....the future would be now.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 01:48:21 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 09:06:45 AM

I thought this was a good question. My guesses are these:
(1) that mainly there isn't a *need* for autonomous vehicles to also be EVs, but that it helps on the social side because people who want EVs are probably much less resistant to car autonomy than people who prefer internal combustion.
(2) autonomous fill-ups (whether by gas, electric outlet or wireless recharging) seem easier without gasoline. Wireless recharging (a reachable but further-off industry dream) sounds especially seemless, which does pair the EV and AV technology better together than AVs with gasoline.
(3) Then after that, a question: Aren't ANs going to require a computer to have its thumb on all the moment by moment stats for your vehicle (and perhaps for every vehicle in your vicinity)? If so, having fewer moving parts could make EVs more amenable to the switch.

All of the above plus lower maintenance costs, which will decrease the costs of rides from whoever survives between Uber/Lyft/Waymo/etc.
As for wireless charging, I'm skeptical of that compared to the potential viability of hyperloop for intercity transportation. Long-distance electric passenger trains could be viable if batteries become dense enough. As for how autonomous cars will be charged, I suspect big parking garages will be owned by the ridesharing companies and they'll install a bunch of charging stations in the old parking spots. This would also allow them to get paid to help keep the grid balanced by varying their charging speeds, largely depending how much wind & solar generation is being produced at that point in time so that less of it will get curtailed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 01:52:30 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:24:29 PM

People do work from home, but you wouldn't know it trying to drive anywhere around here.  The metro area adds nearly 100,000 people a year, most are going further and further out.  The city has been growing over the past 20 years or so after the usual declines.  But the metro area population is more than 10x the Atlanta city population.  Sprawl.

I wish we at least had a subway out to the baseball field, it's in a terrible traffic area, brilliant.

Heh. Chicago doesn't have a population growth problem (according to census data, at least). More people are leaving every year. I'm sure that has something to do with ridership too. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 01:58:47 PM

I'd also point out that for many of the same reasons that HSR fails [high fixed costs / fixed route / fixed endpoints / etc], light rail is a bad idea. 

But since HSR is SUCH a large expense, people don't throw down the money on it. Light rail, at a much more local expense, is the darling of urban hipsters everywhere.

Buses, however, are a much superior solution. Light rail is costly and assumes that the central planners know exactly where the people are, and where they want to go. Once built, it's stuck on that route. Buses are flexible, and bus routes can be reconfigured easily to respond to where the people ACTUALLY are and where they ACTUALLY want to go. 

Of course, it wouldn't matter which is superior if they were independent. But they're not. A pattern crops up every time light rail is built. It displaces bus routes, while actually adding no new net ridership or in many cases, reducing net ridership. Because light rail costs a bunch of money, and the ridership doesn't cover the costs, it invariably has unrealistically low fares to subsidize ridership.

Why is this the case? Very simple. Because poor people ride buses and rich urban hipsters wouldn't be caught dead on one. 

So light rail actually takes mass transit away from the people who need it in order to give it to the people who don't. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 02:10:25 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 01:48:21 PM

All of the above plus lower maintenance costs, which will decrease the costs of rides from whoever survives between Uber/Lyft/Waymo/etc.

Still, I think autonomous driving is decoupled from EV. We could just as easily go autonomous with ICE engines as EV. The lower maintenance costs of EV only play a factor in comparison to ICE--if EV doesn't take over as quickly as projected, then EV isn't necessarily "better" for autonomous ride-hailing. 
Perhaps this could occur due to scale-up costs of increasing battery production capacity for a huge portion of the automotive fleet. I.e. I see the same thing in the HDD/SSD market. People talk about how wonderful SSDs are--and they're exactly that wonderful. But then they predict that HDDs are going the way of the dinosaur, and they're not. SSDs require NAND, and to build out the NAND fabrication facilities to meet exabyte demand would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, while flooding the market with NAND and dropping costs through the floor. Every NAND producer would lose their shirts if they did it. 
So I don't think it should just be assumed EV takes over. It might be the case, but I think if autonomous ride-hailing is ready before the market can supply EV, there's no reason they need to be coupled. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2019, 02:19:54 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 12:19:12 PM

So, no 440V then?

440... 441... whatever it takes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 02:35:33 PM

The movements toward electrification and automation aren't interdependent, but they're not completely independent, either. All of the auto companies realize that EVs are going to win out eventually and that autonomous vehicles will make individual car ownership largely obsolete. How that all plays out is a big question but how it ends is pretty much understood.

As for mass transit, with automation, I agree that buses will prove to be the better solution. I've used buses in subways when I've lived in Philadelphia, Chicago, and DC. The problem with buses is they still have to deal with traffic, stop signs, stop lights, construction, etc. Subways are much more reliable for the most part, and they're scheduled more frequently, but I agree that expanding existing transit infrastructure is not going to happen for the most part (the only project in the DC metro is to finish building a line that goes to Dulles Airport), nor should it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 02:59:52 PM

Wow--I'm surprised at how down on rail you guys are.

My metropolitan area would be a disaster without rail. Buses are great for short trips, but bad for long ones. Rail is an extremely efficient way to connect high density areas that are further apart than buses can reasonably serve. As much money as we pour into infrastructure for cars, a little more investment in rail would be a great idea, particularly as we continue to urbanize as a country.

HSR is only viable within certain distances--the idea of a nationwide network is crazy. But an HSR in California connecting the population centers, or connecting the major population centers in the midwest and on the eastern seaboard (and a handful of other places) makes a ton of sense. The bureaucratic issues (and associated costs) with building one are the biggest problems. I've done my share of traveling to and from SoCal from the Bay Area. I live really close to SFO and it's still a five hour experience to get from my house to downtown LA. If I could make that on HSR in even the same amount of time (and it would be substantially less), in a much more comfortable, better serviced environment (train travel is way more amenable to working than plane travel), I would happily pay what I pay for air travel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 03:03:31 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 02:35:33 PM

The movements toward electrification and automation aren't interdependent, but they're not completely independent, either. All of the auto companies realize that EVs are going to win out eventually and that autonomous vehicles will make individual car ownership largely obsolete. How that all plays out is a big question but how it ends is pretty much understood.

Well, I'm not sure that BEV is going to win out. I was just reading today that China is now betting on fuel cells (https://airqualitynews.com/2019/04/16/china-to-cut-subsidies-for-evs-and-move-towards-hydrogen/). But they want 1M fuel cell cars on the road by 2030, so that's clearly a long-term goal. 
I think there's a significant issue trying to scale up battery production for BEV. Right now the cost of a BEV is heavily due to a battery, which is why Toyota is pushing hybrids so much more strongly than BEV. It allows them to achieve higher efficiency without having to have enough battery capacity to achieve range. 
That was my point with SSD vs HDD. It doesn't matter if BEV is technically superior to ICE if you can't produce enough batteries--at the cost necessary to get adoption--to achieve scale. Do we have enough mines worldwide to get the metals for these batteries? How much would it cost to expand mining? Do we have enough mining companies to supply that many metals, or do the mining companies need to expand? If the mining companies expand and flood the market with metals, can they sell them for a high enough price for the mining companies to cover costs? 
These are incredibly difficult questions, and currently BEV is a tiny portion of the worldwide automotive market. How long it takes to get to scale--if it's possible at all--is not a question we can ignore. 

Quote

As for mass transit, with automation, I agree that buses will prove to be the better solution. I've used buses in subways when I've lived in Philadelphia, Chicago, and DC. The problem with buses is they still have to deal with traffic, stop signs, stop lights, construction, etc. Subways are much more reliable for the most part, and they're scheduled more frequently, but I agree that expanding existing transit infrastructure is not going to happen for the most part (the only project in the DC metro is to finish building a line that goes to Dulles Airport), nor should it.

Subways make sense, but they require insane population density to be economic. So they're only viable within large dense cities. Which also makes sense, because that's the only place where you can justify tunneling under everything. 
So if you're comparing buses vs subways, it's a much different comparison to buses vs light rail. 
FYI when I lived in San Jose, my employer paid for light rail as their HQ was right next to a station. They were on the north side of San Jose, and I lived on the south side of San Jose, also right near a station. Driving in rush hour traffic (incl. carpool lanes) would take an hour. The light rail would take an hour [regardless of traffic] due to the many stops. A bus would probably have taken longer as there might be route changes in there, but then if my house and my employer weren't *right* on the route, I'd have to use a bus to get to/from the terminal station anyway. 
The main advantage of light rail to car was that you could sit there and do email, check your phone, read a book, etc, rather than concentrating on driving. But if I had to pay a couple hundred dollars a month for a monthly pass (which is what I believe they were at the time), I probably wouldn't have done it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 17, 2019, 03:18:39 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 01:44:28 PM

All I know is that our transportation infrastructure is embarrassing, considering the possibilities.  Whether they're tracks or electromagnetics or whatever, it needs to happen.  The existing infrastructure of railroads laid 100+ years ago and the highway system laid 50+ years ago is unacceptable.

I've always found it odd that there's no major in-between:  either drive and maintain a vehicle yourself, on roads, at about 60 mph OR trust the expertise of others, 7 miles up, going 600 mph.  How are there not 10 viable options between these two choices?!?!?!




Think of what we could do with one year's worth of the defense budget pointed towards transportation infrastructure overhaul.....the future would be now.  

The problem is people are generally content with how things are. They don't want to pay for it. We have light rail in Phoenix, which was and is a total waste of money. While there is enough population for it, the actually density of the population will not support it. And thus it is rarely used and don't nothing to help the traffic congestion and in fact made it worse in the areas that it runs through. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 03:33:18 PM

Grade separated express bus ways can be an option.  The folks in traffic would see buses flying by unimpeded, delivering patrons to wherever, perhaps a subway stop.  When the bus gets to a congested area it can use normal streets for a few blocks.  

MARTA was built here in the 1980s.  The "good news" is that the areas surrounding many of the stations are exploding with development.  It's a big selling point.  The bad news is there are no plans for extensions of hard rail, everything planned is light rail or bus ways or street cars.  I'm not a far of street cars.  Buses are better, more flexible.

The state spent a huge sum on express lanes for I-75 outside the loop, toll lanes.  They are going to spend $1.8 billion more on express lanes, and some bus ways, for the north freeway (which is a disaster).  Those monies can't be spent on rail anything by law.

We were headed to Costco today to get gas and the wife stopped of the the tile shop, and then I noticed they had Peachtree closed for some reason, and I had to divert to another Costco out near Marietta, the traffic at 1 PM was ridiculous.  I would never live here if I had to face that daily.  I-285 is 6 lanes each way and was packed, but at least it was moving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 03:33:59 PM

Battery costs aren't going to be the issue for much longer. The demand is already so high and growing so fast that economies of scale continue to bring down the costs, and recycling them as they degrade will be cost-effective, too. The main question is if/when better chemistries / battery technologies will become cost-effective compared to Lithium Ion.

Fuel cells may win out for trucks, other freight vehicles, and eventually even cargo ships and potentially planes, but I just don't see how it will happen for passenger vehicles. Hydrogen will have its uses, but it requires a lot of new infrastructure to be built out.

When I say subways I'm including above-ground lines, too (like most of Chicago's except parts of the red and blue lines).

To be sure, I'm not against trains for intercity transportation or maintaining existing regional rail infrastructure. I just don't think investing in new rail infrastructure is feasible at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 03:46:44 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 02:59:52 PM

Wow--I'm surprised at how down on rail you guys are.

My metropolitan area would be a disaster without rail. Buses are great for short trips, but bad for long ones. Rail is an extremely efficient way to connect high density areas that are further apart than buses can reasonably serve. As much money as we pour into infrastructure for cars, a little more investment in rail would be a great idea, particularly as we continue to urbanize as a country.

Having spent a lot of time in SJ/SF, I agree that it's quite useful there. SF is so expensive that it's nearly impossible to live in the city unless you're rich, and it's so space-constrained that it's almost impossible to justify a car day-to-day. And because it's so centralized, having BART to get right into the heart of downtown is nice--particularly because BART goes to SFO. For people coming into the city that know they won't need a rental car, BART gets them from the airport to downtown in ~25 minutes IIRC. 
Light rail in San Jose and on the Peninsula? Much less useful. Outside of SF, there's a lot more sprawl, where it's unlikely that you not only live close enough to a light rail station and your destination is close enough to a light rail station to justify the additional time and cost of taking light rail. For travelers, if you're there on business, there's no connection from SJC to light rail, so if you wanted to get to a light rail station you'd need to Uber/taxi to the light rail. At which point you might as well either rent a car or just Uber from destination to destination. 

Quote

HSR is only viable within certain distances--the idea of a nationwide network is crazy. But an HSR in California connecting the population centers, or connecting the major population centers in the midwest and on the eastern seaboard (and a handful of other places) makes a ton of sense. The bureaucratic issues (and associated costs) with building one are the biggest problems. I've done my share of traveling to and from SoCal from the Bay Area. I live really close to SFO and it's still a five hour experience to get from my house to downtown LA. If I could make that on HSR in even the same amount of time (and it would be substantially less), in a much more comfortable, better serviced environment (train travel is way more amenable to working than plane travel), I would happily pay what I pay for air travel.

Question: what brings you to downtown LA, and do you think your experience is typical? If you live close to SFO, it should be no more than a 2 1/2 hour trip to get you to LAX. It's the getting from LAX to downtown LA that's the hard part. 
I will highlight that if you're trying to get to downtown LA from LAX, it's terrible. Unlike SFO to downtown SF, there is NO mass transit connecting the two. I think that would be an excellent use of mass transit, but right now you have to take a bus from LAX to the Green Line, tranfer to the Blue Line, and then transfer to the Red Line if you want to get to Union Station. That would be a pain in the ass, and take at least an hour plus. 
But I can't imagine why anyone needs to get to downtown LA?
Part of it for me is living in Orange County and absolutely hating to drive into downtown LA, but outside of sporting events, concerts, etc, I can't imagine many reasons to go to downtown LA. And HSR would take you to Union Station. LA also has so much sprawl that you'd find yourself having difficult public transit here anyway, or taking Ubers/taxis everywhere.
Generally business travelers are going to need the freedom of a rental car and can shoulder or expense the cost, and probably aren't going straight to downtown LA anyway because business in LA is all over the place. Which means that getting to LAX (or Burbank, or Ontario, or Long Beach, or John Wayne--we do have 5 major airports here) is probably just as functional as getting to Union Station downtown. If it's about vacationers, I highly doubt that enough vacationers are going to be riding HSR to create enough ridership to make any sense. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 03:50:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 03:33:18 PM

The state spent a huge sum on express lanes for I-75 outside the loop, toll lanes.  They are going to spend $1.8 billion more on express lanes, and some bus ways, for the north freeway (which is a disaster).  Those monies can't be spent on rail anything by law.

We were headed to Costco today to get gas and the wife stopped of the the tile shop, and then I noticed they had Peachtree closed for some reason, and I had to divert to another Costco out near Marietta, the traffic at 1 PM was ridiculous.  I would never live here if I had to face that daily.  I-285 is 6 lanes each way and was packed, but at least it was moving.

IMHO Atlanta's problem is similar to Seattle's. It wasn't some steady growth that allowed them to slowly increase highway capacity in line with population growth. It was stable population and then BOOM it exploded. For Seattle it was Microsoft and Amazon, and then it became a tech center.
As much as we complain about SoCal traffic, we have an extremely robust freeway system here. Atlanta doesn't. They have far fewer people than we do in SoCal, but they have far too many for the infrastructure they've built out. And more are coming every day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 04:02:38 PM

Atlanta's growth has been pretty steady since the 1960s.  I don't think there was some point where it really took off after that point.

1900 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_United_States_Census)	419,375		—
1910 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1910_United_States_Census)	522,442		24.6%
1920 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_United_States_Census)	622,283		19.1%
1930 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_United_States_Census)	715,391		15.0%
1940 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_United_States_Census)	820,579		14.7%
1950 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_United_States_Census)	997,666		21.6%
1960 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_United_States_Census)	1,312,474		31.6%
1970 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_United_States_Census)	1,763,626		34.4%
1980 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_Census)	2,233,324		26.6%
1990 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_Census)	2,959,950		32.5%
2000 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_Census)	4,112,198		38.9%
2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Census)	5,268,860		28.1%
Est. 2017	5,884,736		11.7%

The area has no geographic barriers, so folks can move further and further out.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 04:13:06 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 03:33:59 PM

Battery costs aren't going to be the issue for much longer. The demand is already so high and growing so fast that economies of scale continue to bring down the costs, and recycling them as they degrade will be cost-effective, too. The main question is if/when better chemistries / battery technologies will become cost-effective compared to Lithium Ion.

You might be right. I'm asking questions because I'm not an expert on lithium mining. 
Just pointing out that with ANY resource, mining companies are going to look at expected demand that can be satisfied based on price to extract it from the ground. If they believe they will be overproducing and cause prices to drop too quickly, they'll hold off investment or they'll get into trouble. 
If demand is growing faster than supply, that acts as a significant brake on price reduction. Again talking SSDs because it's my field, demand is growing very fast. But as the production switched over from 2D to 3D NAND, demand overtook supply and the entire industry was in allocation and making a lot of money. Then it swapped, and right now were in an oversupply and prices are low. It seems like it's coming back into balance slowly, from what I read.
Batteries (and the metals needed to sustain them) aren't going to be different, because you can't just wish extra lithium into existence. Much like oil, as technology improves, we get more efficient at extracting resources. But we can't just assume that the mining industry can and will be able to continuously decrease production costs on a nice curve while satisfying the insatiable demand necessary to electrify the world's fleet of automobiles. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 04:54:45 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 17, 2019, 03:46:44 PM

Having spent a lot of time in SJ/SF, I agree that it's quite useful there. SF is so expensive that it's nearly impossible to live in the city unless you're rich, and it's so space-constrained that it's almost impossible to justify a car day-to-day. And because it's so centralized, having BART to get right into the heart of downtown is nice--particularly because BART goes to SFO. For people coming into the city that know they won't need a rental car, BART gets them from the airport to downtown in ~25 minutes IIRC.
Light rail in San Jose and on the Peninsula? Much less useful. Outside of SF, there's a lot more sprawl, where it's unlikely that you not only live close enough to a light rail station and your destination is close enough to a light rail station to justify the additional time and cost of taking light rail. For travelers, if you're there on business, there's no connection from SJC to light rail, so if you wanted to get to a light rail station you'd need to Uber/taxi to the light rail. At which point you might as well either rent a car or just Uber from destination to destination.
Question: what brings you to downtown LA, and do you think your experience is typical? If you live close to SFO, it should be no more than a 2 1/2 hour trip to get you to LAX. It's the getting from LAX to downtown LA that's the hard part.
I will highlight that if you're trying to get to downtown LA from LAX, it's terrible. Unlike SFO to downtown SF, there is NO mass transit connecting the two. I think that would be an excellent use of mass transit, but right now you have to take a bus from LAX to the Green Line, tranfer to the Blue Line, and then transfer to the Red Line if you want to get to Union Station. That would be a pain in the ass, and take at least an hour plus.
But I can't imagine why anyone needs to get to downtown LA?
Part of it for me is living in Orange County and absolutely hating to drive into downtown LA, but outside of sporting events, concerts, etc, I can't imagine many reasons to go to downtown LA. And HSR would take you to Union Station. LA also has so much sprawl that you'd find yourself having difficult public transit here anyway, or taking Ubers/taxis everywhere.
Generally business travelers are going to need the freedom of a rental car and can shoulder or expense the cost, and probably aren't going straight to downtown LA anyway because business in LA is all over the place. Which means that getting to LAX (or Burbank, or Ontario, or Long Beach, or John Wayne--we do have 5 major airports here) is probably just as functional as getting to Union Station downtown. If it's about vacationers, I highly doubt that enough vacationers are going to be riding HSR to create enough ridership to make any sense.

Lots of stuff to unpack here. Most of my work in LA has been downtown. While Burbank can be a better airport to fly in and out of, there are far fewer flights in and out of there (same for Long Beach and Orange County), so LAX is the most common for me. And I can't remember renting a car in LA. Too much hassle driving--the traffic is terrible and the parking is expensive. Last time I was down there was for pleasure with SFIrish and the boy. We flew into Long Beach (left the house about 7 am, took a cab to the airport--about 7 minutes--waited for the flight, and arrived in Long Beach at 11:15, I think, so four hours to get to the airport) and took a ride service where we were going. The second trip was to Orange County, so cost a bit more, but it was still far less expensive to pay for the ride share than to rent a car. The fare was no less than an HSR fare would have been, the time it took was at least as long, and the experience was much less pleasant. Great use for HSR. With a stop at either Union Station or Anaheim, that covers a lot of
As for travel time from SFO to LAX, you can get it down to about 2-1/2 hours (without routinely missing flights) if you are willing to take a little risk in how much time you sit in the airport--I'm cautious, so I allow more time. The flight time itself is negligible, but security and the vagaries of air travel add time on average. A lot of time. And then, yes, it's getting into and out of LAX that adds a lot more.
The other issue is population and jobs growth. SFO is basically at capacity now, and San Jose and Oakland are near it. To get more people connected to SoCal will require another way to do it.
I think the only light rail in the Bay Area is down in Santa Clara (e.g., San Jose up to Mountain View, I think). Most rail here is heavy (BART is electric, but still heavy rail). I live on the Peninsula and the traditional diesel electric train is the best way to get into my job in San Francisco, though the southernmost BART station is also convenient for me and I use it a bit, too. The traditional commute train has very strong ridership up and down the Peninsula during commute hours, as does BART--and that's with generally weak first mile/last mile transportation options when you get where you are going. Population density and growth is such that everywhere on the Peninsula and in the Silicon Valley, the traffic (and cost of housing) is bad. Commuting intercity in a car sucks most of the time. The current plan on the passenger rail is to convert to electric rolling stock--construction is underway and I think is scheduled to complete in 2022. Electric rail will increase the speed and frequency of the trains, making them even more useful.

You are right about light rails failure to connect to SJC. Ridiculous. Other than that, I'm not real familiar with light rail in San Jose, as I'm not down there enough to make use (or not) of it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 05:04:13 PM

Tidbits of positive news, though billions are going to roads still of course:

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/17/18410700/path400-trail-buckhead-sandy-springs-construction (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/17/18410700/path400-trail-buckhead-sandy-springs-construction)

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gWVgZcfSfz9KN-7DuTs9unI8ruQ=/0x0:920x613/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:920x613):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16128117/JTP_4102.0.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 05:04:45 PM

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-Jn1FJi6GwiXs3rS6rXRRF5RJsQ=/0x0:750x583/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:750x583):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16128114/RegionalTrailGaps.FromAtlantaCurbed.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 05:38:46 PM

Thanks @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) -- I could see if you spend a lot of time downtown, that a direct shot to Union Station would be preferable. Surprised you never rented a car in LA though... My guess is that your work is a lot different than mine. IIRC, you're a lawyer? I would assume that's a lot more "downtown-centric" than engineering which is a lot more spread out. 

I'm more used to the Orange County and San Jose airports, where I've never had any trouble with security. Orange County can be a little bit of a problem with the 6:45 AM scheduled flights, because the earliest you're allowed to take off is 7:00 AM, so oddly enough 6:00-6:45 AM is the busiest time of the entire airport. But I find that in either airport, I rarely spend more than 15 minutes getting through security. SFO and LAX can be a lot worse. 

But part of it might be that I don't understand the anger some people have with flying. Perhaps because I do it so often. But for that 6:45 AM flight, I can be out my door at 5:30 and in my rental car in San Jose before 8:30 AM. I can't imagine that being possible with HSR.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 06:05:16 PM

Yup--a lawyer, so most of my time down there is going to downtown law offices and the courts (Stanley Mosk, which is the main courthouse, most of all).

My experience on rail versus planes is that 3 hours on rail is way better time than 3 hours getting somewhere by plane. No more than about 15 minutes idle time (on the platform), then all the time on the car itself you can work, nap, read, whatever. That NorCal/SoCal flight, with only about 45 minutes in the air, there is precious little time that can be productive; most of it is security, gate time, then takeoff and landing time--with very little space to use a computer, even when I can. So I would take a three-hour train ride over a 3-hour flying experience every time.

Now--as to the bureaucracy and resulting expense of the California HSR project, that's a whole different question. Of course, a significant portion of that cost has been driven by all the challenges to the rail thrown up by anti-rail people who knew that their best bet to kill it was to make it more expensive.

One last thing, fwiw--my house is seven houses and one two-lane road away from where the HSR track would be (where the commuter rail is) in my neck of the woods.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 06:10:48 PM

I once was scheduled to fly to London out of Dayton (to save money) through Atlanta.  When I got to Dayton, I was told all the flights to ATL were cancelled.  The agent got me on the flight from Cincy to London direct though, I just had about 60 miles to drive in about 60 minutes.  I made it, barely, there was no one in line in Cincy at the Delta counter.  I got on the plane and realized all my travel plans were based on arriving at Heathrow, and this plane was going to Gatwick  No internet back then.

So, we land and I'm casting about trying to figure out how to get to London and I see signed for "The Gatwick Express", but no arrows.  It took me a while to find where to get a ticket, but I did, and sat down on the train reading something when two police in tactical gear with a dog come through carrying MP4s.  They ask me if that is my luggage and the dog smells it and moves on.

So, after about 40 minutes we get to Victoria Station, a rather large facility, and I'm pulling luggage and looking for an exit sign.  I figure if I can see the sun I can get a general direction to where I'm headed, but no exit signs.  After meandering about a while, I notice signs saying "Way out", like yeah, man, cool.  (My first trip to London.)  So, I get out and read the sun and head in the general direction of Mayfair where I was staying, tired of course, and end up walking the entire distance.  I find the hotel and take care of business, and on the flight back, Delta was asking for volunteers.  I put my hand up and said OK, I'd get $500 Delta dollars and I asked for an upgrade to First Class, which they granted.  I'm in 1C and a tall dude is in 1A, and I finally realize he is Nuke Laloush in the flesh.

Anyway, I have a close connection to get back to Cincy out of Laguardia and the plan sits on the runway for an hour, we arrived in time, but no gate is open.  So, I miss my flight, nothing until tomorrow.  Bummer.  Have to stay over night, but I did get the Delta dollars at least.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 06:39:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 06:10:48 PM

I once was scheduled to fly to London out of Dayton (to save money) through Atlanta.  When I got to Dayton, I was told all the flights to ATL were cancelled.  The agent got me on the flight from Cincy to London direct though, I just had about 60 miles to drive in about 60 minutes.  I made it, barely, there was no one in line in Cincy at the Delta counter.  I got on the plane and realized all my travel plans were based on arriving at Heathrow, and this plane was going to Gatwick  No internet back then.

Last March, when the wife and I were headed to Italy/France for our elopement and honeymoon, we were originally supposed to leave from LAX on Wednesday morning, through Philly, then direct to Rome. We were supposed to arrive first thing in the morning Thursday and have all day there, and then Friday had reservations for the Vatican. 

Well, this was when the big Nor'easter hit last spring, and lo and behold I find out on Tuesday that the Philly->Rome flight is cancelled. So I spend hours on the phone with American, with a nice lady who is *trying* to be helpful but has her hands somewhat tied because we were flying on points instead of an actual revenue fare. Everything she's finding has us leaving on Friday or even Saturday, which basically means we have zero time to do anything in Rome before moving on to the Cinque Terre. 
So I'm working every angle I can work, and she's looking up everything she can find. Eventually she says "hang on, let me check something with my manager." Comes back and says she's normally not supposed to do it, but if I was willing to not only change planes but change airports in London, she could make it work and I'd leave Wednesday evening. I say "sure". 
So we fly direct from LAX to Heathrow, arriving about 9 AM. We have a 6 PM flight from Gatwick to Rome. I have coworkers in an office in Leatherhead right near Gatwick, so I'm trying to guilt them into hanging out and showing us around and maybe having pints [my treat], but given that it was going to be the middle of a work day, no luck. I start researching how to make use of those 9 hours and maybe see some of London instead. Figure it might work, although shlepping our bags around London all day didn't sound fun.
As it stands, we get in at 9 AM, we're just dead tired from the redeye flight, not feeling well from fatigue. Sightseeing wasn't an option. We eat crappy airport food in Heathrow, catch an Uber to Gatwick, only to realize it's about noon and they won't let you check in for a flight or past security until 3 PM. So we sit on terrible chairs in baggage claim, me reading my kindle with my legs up on my suitcase and her feeling like hell trying to sleep, until 3. Finally get through check-in, through security, and we're into the terminal. The sad, sad terminal. We manage to choke down some fish & chips and my wife looks at "mushy peas" with disgust [she doesn't like peas anyway] and a couple of pints, and finally get into Rome about 1 AM Friday morning. Crash and just barely wake up in enough time to get to the Vatican. 
To this day, I'm not sure if my wife can remember the name of Gatwick. For now and forever more, it's just going to be "sad airport" in London lol!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2019, 07:09:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 07:35:08 AM

When we bought the VW, our salesman told us he could get us a better deal if we financed part of it.  The loan was 1.9% over 60 months, so I took it.  Their initial offer was lower than I was prepared to spend.  We dickered a little bit on some options and that was that.

I thought I'd get maybe $3000 off list and they offered $5K out of the gate.  It wasn't the color I preferred, but I like it fine.

I think large volume dealers just move cars and make profit on numbers, incentives for selling X per month.

I sold new Chevrolets in a prior life, back in the late '70s.  We could definitely sell a car at a cheaper price if the customer was willing to finance through GMAC.
How big a hit do you take if you finance it and then pay off the loan after one month?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2019, 07:48:02 PM

I think it was beneficial for me to finance the 2015 Chevy Silverado for 5 years and wait until one year had gone by, then pay it off

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 10:10:01 PM

The Atlanta situation made me consider this as an idea....kind of a high-speed, elevated or tunnel land ferry system.

Have a central hub, with a track going out in the direction of each major suburb (4-6 different directions).  You'd load up 2 rows of cars on each ferry, maybe 20 cars total, maybe 50? and it would speed into the central hub.  It empties, loads up any cars headed out, and speeds back out, one on each track back to its suburb. 

Basically just speeding back and forth - no loop or anything, just a group of massive, high-speed car ferries, bypassing all the traffic.  Maybe it'd need to hold 100 cars to matter, I don't know.  Is that a crazy idea?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2019, 10:19:49 PM

can't we simply get jet packs for everyone?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 10:40:12 PM

Lots of ideas. Lots of no money. Lots of taxes. 



I'll do my best to avoid taxes, by choosing to distribute my wealth, where I choose to put it. I don't need some dumbass elected official to do it for me. I'm better than "them" at dong it.




#soapboxoff

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on April 18, 2019, 06:01:54 AM

Contrary to popular belief, the US's rail infrastructure by and large is pretty damn good at what it's meant to do... move freight. The fact we can't just put bullet trains on tracks full of freight trains doesn't mean we have "poor" rail infrastructure. 

If the US wants a nationwide high speed rail system then a whole new network of tracks will need to be built and it should go without saying that is extremely expensive. 

But really, high speed rail is only feasible in areas of very high population density, which most of the US is not. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 06:17:57 AM

In my case, I could pay off the loan in a month with no penalty.  I think I had to make the first payment.  As the interest rate is 1.9% and I'm paying 3.7% on the condo, I'm letting it ride.  It is through VW Credit.

I think people don't like buses but they are flexible and carry a lot of people, and can move quickly if on elevated busways.  I saw something about a "people pod" that could carry about 8 people and was to be autonomous, so I mused about having elevated paths for those things.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 07:48:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 06:17:57 AM

In my case, I could pay off the loan in a month with no penalty.  I think I had to make the first payment.  As the interest rate is 1.9% and I'm paying 3.7% on the condo, I'm letting it ride.  It is through VW Credit.

When rates are that low, it would be silly to pay them off and not make much more on your money elsewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 08:08:33 AM

Chicago lead the country for large city population loss for 2018!! Yay, Chicago!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 08:11:25 AM

Chicago's population has been trending down for a while now, save for a blip before the crash happened. What should be very disturbing to local and state leaders is the decline in collar county population. That's a huge turn of events.


The metro numbers are also a bit skewed in they include parts of SE Wisconsin and NW Indiana - states people from Illinois are relocating to, in droves.



https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-census-chicago-cook-county-population-decline-20190408-story.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2019, 08:15:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 06:10:48 PM

 I'm in 1C and a tall dude is in 1A, and I finally realize he is Nuke Laloush in the flesh.

You mean Andy Dufresne ?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2019, 08:21:54 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2019, 10:19:49 PM

can't we simply get jet packs for everyone?

Or Mr Scott beaming everyone up would be smashingly efficient also

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 09:02:27 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2019, 08:15:22 AM

You mean Andy Dufresne ?

Yeah, him too.  He had a beard and was wearing a hat, so he was somewhat disguised.
There was an elderly British lady in 1B and he and I were assisting her with her folding table and whatnot.
I ALMOST walked out in front of a bus on that trip looking the wrong way.  The driver leaned on his horn seeing me looking the wrong way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 09:05:47 AM

We've lived here a year now, and the plethora of scooters and bikes has exploded.  I now see piles of scooters like ten to a bunch sitting around.  Often they are in the sidewalk and a hazard to navigation (or perambulation).  The various bikes are all over as well, Uber has joined the fray.

We've almost been hit a few times by folks on scooters coming up from behind, you can't hear them.  The city is talking about the problem and hazard and now there is an ap for reporting improperly stowed scooters that I have not used.  On the one hand, it's a neat form of transportation, but on the other they are hazardous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 09:17:40 AM

The scooters have become an issue in many large cities across the country.  In Austin we've already had at least two fatalities and a lot of injuries resulting from their use.  I believe some cities are already moving to ban them, and heavy regulation at the very least seems likely.  Still not sure it will help much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 09:29:54 AM

They are another reason to eschew "electromagnetism" entirely.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/11/26/18112586/midtown-alliance-shareable-scooter-bike-regulation-last-mile (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/11/26/18112586/midtown-alliance-shareable-scooter-bike-regulation-last-mile)“We likely haven’t hit ‘peak scooter’ yet.”
That’s according to Kevin Green, president and CEO of Midtown Alliance, which last week shared with city officials its recommendations for regulating the dockless, shareable vehicles that have lately taken Atlanta by storm.
“We believe that electric scooters provide a much-needed last-mile transit option for Atlantans, but we’ve also witnessed firsthand the safety challenges that come with it,” Green said, according to a Midtown Alliance news release (https://www.midtownatl.com/about/news-center/post/midtown-alliance-offers-suggestions-to-city-on-dockless-scooter-regs), which announced the organization’s stance on Atlanta City Council legislation that would create rules for shareable vehicle companies.
The proposal, which initially emerged in September, seeks to impose regulations (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/11/13/18091424/councilmembers-proposed-regulations-shareable-scooters-bikes-last-mile) on where people can ride and park dockless scooters and bikes, and how the operating companies can do business within city limits.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2019, 09:40:16 AM

We have plenty of money for any transportation infrastructure we want, it's just being tossed into the defense budget. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 10:01:05 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2019, 09:40:16 AM

We have plenty of money for any transportation infrastructure we want, it's just being tossed into the defense budget.

Well, that's not entirely true...
"We" don't even have the money for the defense budget. The defense budget IIRC is somewhere on the order of $700B a year. We're running yearly deficits expected to be greater than $1T per year going forward. So even if you cut the defense budget to zero, we're still >$300B annually in the hole. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 10:03:35 AM

I think the scooter regulations are honestly a solution in search of a problem. My guess is that within a year or two, the scooter "fad" will end of its own accord, particularly as right now growth for the scooter companies is huge but profitability is not. Do they even have a sustainable business model?

Give it two years, and those scooters will be a thing of the past IMHO.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 10:38:45 AM

They are heavily used around here.  I don't see many on rented bikes, but I see scooters everywhere being ridden.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 11:13:41 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 18, 2019, 10:03:35 AM

I think the scooter regulations are honestly a solution in search of a problem. My guess is that within a year or two, the scooter "fad" will end of its own accord, particularly as right now growth for the scooter companies is huge but profitability is not. Do they even have a sustainable business model?

Give it two years, and those scooters will be a thing of the past IMHO.

Agree with you here.
A lot of people hate the way some users carelessly leave them lying around in dangerous locations.  A lot of people hate the way they look, sitting around all over the palce, and believe they're nothing more than litter in our city.  A lot of people are throwing them into the lake and down storm drains.
Seems like the cost of replacing scooters regularly is only going to harm further these companies' lack of profitability.  
Beyond that, area hospitals are seeing some significant spikes in injuries resulting from riding and/or being crashed into by these things, so it's only a matter of time before the lawsuits start pouring in as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 12:37:27 PM

Evidently people find them useful around here, so I doubt they go away.  More regs, yes.

It's mostly the young folks using them, which is a bit ironic in a way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 12:43:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 12:37:27 PM

Evidently people find them useful around here, so I doubt they go away.  More regs, yes.

It's mostly the young folks using them, which is a bit ironic in a way.

They're "cool" and novel. Eventually they won't be cool anymore. 
The question is whether there's a sustainable business model there once the novelty wears off. If people aren't returning the scooters to where they're supposed to be, and the damage/maintenance costs start adding up, I'm not sure there's a business model there. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 12:51:18 PM

My understanding is they are intended to be left lying around wherever.  Folks come through at night and collect them and recharge them.  The next day they are all nicely lined up in various places.  I think many find them to have utility, not novelty.  My step son uses them often in SF he says.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 01:13:12 PM

They do have a lot of utility. Particularly for the first generation of kids in the US to have a lower percentage of drivers licenses and car ownership than a generation that preceded it (in the automobile age, obviously).

As a cyclist, I'm amused that people choose this more dangerous and less useful device for this kind of transportation over similar fleets of traditional or even electric bicycles, but that has definitely been the experience in cities where there is a choice. People are strange.

Either way, it is a low-cost and efficient means of transportation; all it needs is infrastructure to support it. While people are more than happy to lard the federal highway bill (and state equivalents) up with money to subsidize the single most dangerous form of mass transportation we have, the rare serious injury and the bumps and bruises related to scooters (and bicycles) turn into a big impediment to spending comparatively little on supporting infrastructure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 01:28:51 PM

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/1/11/18178476/bike-lanes-complete-streets-renew-atlanta-tsplost-projects (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/1/11/18178476/bike-lanes-complete-streets-renew-atlanta-tsplost-projects)

Folks are trying some around here, but funding remains an issue of course.  Since I've moved to an urban environment, I am even less thrilled about new freeway lanes.

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_Jg3xKxAsfzU2Lvo27E8z99K1qE=/0x0:920x613/1200x800/filters:focal(387x234:533x380)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62830115/juniper_pmontage_v7_160205_web.0.0.1547229231.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 02:16:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 12:51:18 PM

My understanding is they are intended to be left lying around wherever.  Folks come through at night and collect them and recharge them.  The next day they are all nicely lined up in various places.  I think many find them to have utility, not novelty.  My step son uses them often in SF he says.  

That is the intention.  But folks don't always "come through at night" and so they are sometimes left around for days. Others get sick of it and throw them in the lake.  As you can imagine, having your fleet thrown away is detrimental to profits. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2019, 02:23:58 PM

I'm happy to live in a small town.

a small town located in the middle of no where

no transportation issues here

and plenty of fresh water and clean air

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 02:46:05 PM

A lot of cities (mine included--both where I live and where I work) are trying on bike/ped (which basically includes scooters) infrastructure. But it's remarkably slow in coming about, particularly because anytime you suggest taking a square foot of road or parking away from the cars people lose their freaking minds, regardless of what the research and traffic studies show. Also, a lot of transportation infrastructure is funded at the state and federal level because of the dollar amounts involved (not realistic to raise that based on city-level taxation), where the overwhelming percentage of dollars is allocated to the automobile. Small little slices of that would hardly be missed and would make a huge difference in the bike/ped budgets.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 02:46:57 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 02:16:38 PM

That is the intention.  But folks don't always "come through at night" and so they are sometimes left around for days. Others get sick of it and throw them in the lake.  As you can imagine, having your fleet thrown away is detrimental to profits.

True. And cars get left around at night and during the day, too. All the time. Everywhere. Yet no one seems to mind. Cars are harder to throw in a lake, though.

PS I'm a zealot. :-)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 06:18:18 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 02:46:57 PM

True. And cars get left around at night and during the day, too. All the time. Everywhere. Yet no one seems to mind. Cars are harder to throw in a lake, though.

PS I'm a zealot. :-)

Cars aren't generally thrown all over the sidewalks.
PS-- I'm not so much a zealout, more of a curious contrarian.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 06:39:21 PM

Pot stirring abounds.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 07:16:39 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 06:18:18 PM

Cars aren't generally thrown all over the sidewalks.
PS-- I'm not so much a zealout, more of a curious contrarian.  :)

I think that Bird scooters, much like Tesla cars that do 0-60 in 3.2s, are pretty cool.
I'm just not sure either company is going to be around in 2 years without bankruptcy.
(If Tesla makes it 2 more quarters, they'll probable make it 2 years. But I don't give them that long.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 07:25:37 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 06:18:18 PM

Cars aren't generally thrown all over the sidewalks.
PS-- I'm not so much a zealout, more of a curious contrarian.  :)

No, cars are strewn--parked and abandoned often for days at a time--all over our public roads, sitting there, blocking our views, taking up valuable space, and covering it in mismatched, loud, and ugly colors, shapes, and sizes. And they can't be easily moved when they are in the way.
;)
People complain about a scooter or a bike on a sidewalk like it's the end of the world. "It's ugly!" "It's in the way!" "It's blocking the way!" Are you kidding me? Cars are parked all over our public roads, in the way, blocking driveways, ugly, and much harder to get out of our way than some 5-10 pound scooter, or a 30-pound (bikeshare) bike on wheels. It's ridiculous. We're just so used to it that it doesn't occur to us that cars parked on public streets are taking up valuable space and polluting our visual spaces. And they sure as heck are a much bigger nuisance when they "block the way" than some tiny wheeled vehicle that can be moved by almost anybody. GRRRR!
[/zealot's rant]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2019, 08:08:55 PM

stupid people that ride bikes on rural 2-lane highways are in the way, a nuisance, and endanger drivers and of course themselves

darwinism at work

then the county puts up road signs at encourage drivers to "share the Road"??

 (https://www.michiganradio.org/sites/michigan/files/styles/medium/public/201606/screen_shot_2016-06-09_at_2.22.04_pm.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 18, 2019, 08:43:40 PM

I do approve of certain areas around (indy) town where the Lime/Bird scooters have some designated squares for parking the scooters, that has actually contained some of the junk yard appearances.   I just wish they would enforce the 'no sidewalk' rule a bit, as that's where the accidents go down.   That and if you're not careful, the old school brick pavers around the circle and on a few of the adjacent streets, you do see some pretty terrific wipeouts.   

My observational inferences suggest a high % of users are convention attendees.

Regarding hyper aggressive implementation of bike lanes, (again observational) it looked really stupid in the Twin Cities earlier this winter when I was in town.   They are mostly panned in NYC too, not so much for the long winter rendering many of them useless, but for making Manhattan traffic even worse.    Correlated or not (I suppose smartphones are a greater cause)  pedestrian fatalities are on a steady rise in large cities.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 11:28:14 AM

I just think the gap between "build it and they will come" bike lane proponents and reality is large.

I feel like there are two types of people:

• Cycling is LIFE!
• Haven't ridden a bike since I was a child; don't plan to.

The first group thinks that if we just get enough infrastructure built, the second group will abandon their cars en masse in favor of two-wheeled utopia. 

But the second group much prefers their cup-holders and drive-through windows and talk radio and legs that don't hurt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 12:28:51 PM

I'm a zealot, but at some level a realist. I don't think we will abandon cars en masse, but I know that replacing even 5% of car travel with cycling (or scooters or walking) would be a huge benefit to everyone. The lack of safe infrastructure is the single biggest thing preventing that.

There is tons of evidence that cycling infrastructure benefits communities--and improves traffic.

Part of the issue with the traffic is that when most of the roads were built, no one had studied traffic. Now that we have road design is much improved, but unless a government has a reason to invest in new road design, it doesn't happen. So it's probably less cycling infrastructure, and more new infrastructure that helps with traffic flow.

Unfortunately, most people don't know a thing about how traffic works, but think they do because they drive in it. A lot of people want more lanes and more parking, neither of which is generally a good idea. What they don't want is change; so traffic circles and road diets (and even just construction delays for something new), despite plenty of evidence that they are both safer and improve throughput (in the right circumstances--that's not a blanket statement), are met with outrage.

A good example in my town: an intersection was redone because it was a terrible design and limited throughput. The construction outraged people because it's a big intersection in town. When it was finished, there's no question that it improved throughput (i.e., improved traffic). One of the roads it served added a second left turn lane and a section of green paint for a bike lane--without taking away ANY lanes from the cars. Now, despite improved throughput, anytime someone leaves their house late and has to wait at the traffic light in a line of cars (which has been a problem forever there), they blame it on the bike lane, which has obviously ruined their commute (despite literally not changing the available asphalt for the cars). It's remarkable.

And yeah, people lose their minds over a bicycle or scooter left on a tree belt, but think their constitutional rights are threatened if someone suggests they shouldn't be able to park their car in front of their neighbor's house whenever they feel like it.

Bwar, your dichotomy isn't far off in the U.S., but for those of us in the first camp, we see lots of other places in the world where bikes are just ordinary transportation for large parts of the populace, and people who wear lycra and ride carbon fiber bikes are the exception, not the norm. For us, we're jealous of those other places, and we just grin and bear it when our friends come back from Europe and talk about how great their cities are, how walkable they are, and how nice the bike riding for all is (not true everywhere, but true in a lot of places). And, we always grin when a friend says, "you know, I rode my bike downtown yesterday, and it was great! I didn't have to search for parking, it felt good, and it didn't take very long." But that comment is almost always followed by ... "I just wish it was safer; that would make me want to do it more."

The idea that scooters and cyclists have anything to do with the rise in pedestrian fatalities is ridiculous. It is 100% due to the way people are driving their cars/trucks. Traffic fatalities in general are on the rise after decades of them decreasing due to safety improvements in the cars themselves. The only reasonable explanation is driving behavior (WAY more distractions in the vehicle). Cyclists may be involved in 5 pedestrian deaths a year (?--it's so rare there basically aren't any studies on it). Cars killed more than 6000 pedestrians last year (total motor vehicle deaths climbed over 40,000 in 2017 in the U.S.--another increase consistent with a steady rise over the last several years).

And Fearless, that looks like a beautiful road, with curves and sidewalks, too, so unlikely particularly high speed. What's the concern--that you'll have to slow down and pass a cyclist from time to time, costing you maybe 15 seconds of your day?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 12:46:46 PM

my concern is that someone will be killed, either the cyclist or the passenger of the vehicle

the main highway between my small town of 400 and Sewer City, around 100,000 is a curvy, hilly 2-lane of about 12 miles.  Speed limit because of the narrowness of the road and shoulders and the curves and hills is 50 mph.

Of course the cyclists in Sewer City just love the road.  Especially a few months before RAGBRIA, getting ready....  https://ragbrai.com/ (https://ragbrai.com/)

It's just not safe.  If a vehicle comes over a hill or around a curve at 50-55 mph and there is a cyclist going 25 mph it can be hard to slow down in time.  With distracted driving at all-time high levels it's very dangerous to the cyclist.  Obviously dangerous to the vehicle if forced to swerve into the other lane of on coming traffic or onto the narrow shoulder and the ditch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 12:54:53 PM

The era of oil is coming to an end, with global oil production set to halve in the next five to six years. To avoid a global economic slump, the transition to 100% renewables worldwide needs to be accelerated. It is feasible and cheaper than the current system, research shows.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 12:56:27 PM

So the concern is that distracted, unsafe drivers will continue to be distracted and unsafe?

I guess I understand that, but cyclists aren't the issue, unsafe drivers are. I would bet that there are already motor vehicle wrecks on that road and that there are far more of them that have nothing to do with cyclists than do. Maybe I'm wrong, but I would be surprised. 

And this--for zealots like me--is exactly the problem. Our culture is so used to poor driving and motor vehicle carnage, that we don't blame it for the problems it causes--and we make essentially zero effort to address the real problem: drivers. It's one of the reason I am so excited for the future of autonomous vehicles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 01:16:40 PM

no, not entirely ..............

more than a few dozen times I've had to hit the brakes extremely hard or swerved hard to keep from hitting a cyclist on that road.

yes, I was going 5 over the posted 50 mph, but I was not distracted, actually on the look out for cyclists, knowing that it was a nice day and they would be out on the road.

the problem is that it's not a safe road for cyclists, regardless of the awareness and carefulness of drivers.

It's too hilly and curvy with blind spots ahead, no decent shoulder, and too much traffic

On a flat and /or straight road where you can see an 1/8 mile or more ahead and slow down for a bicycle, that's fine

putting up "share the road" signs on a dangerous road doesn't make it safe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 01:32:10 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 12:28:51 PM

I'm a zealot, but at some level a realist. I don't think we will abandon cars en masse, but I know that replacing even 5% of car travel with cycling (or scooters or walking) would be a huge benefit to everyone. The lack of safe infrastructure is the single biggest thing preventing that.

Bwar, your dichotomy isn't far off in the U.S., but for those of us in the first camp, we see lots of other places in the world where bikes are just ordinary transportation for large parts of the populace, and people who wear lycra and ride carbon fiber bikes are the exception, not the norm. For us, we're jealous of those other places, and we just grin and bear it when our friends come back from Europe and talk about how great their cities are, how walkable they are, and how nice the bike riding for all is (not true everywhere, but true in a lot of places). And, we always grin when a friend says, "you know, I rode my bike downtown yesterday, and it was great! I didn't have to search for parking, it felt good, and it didn't take very long." But that comment is almost always followed by ... "I just wish it was safer; that would make me want to do it more."

Yeah, and I just wish dieting and exercise were easier... I'd totally lose some weight! ;)
I think even before the safe infrastructure thing are a few problems for general people:

• Bike commuting is only feasible if you live near work. With sprawl, not many of us do any more. For me it's about 12 miles to the office--I could do it, but I don't. 
• Bike commuting takes a lot of time. We as Americans are living time-stretched lives ever more often these days.
• People have kids. Tough to drop off / pick up the kids from school on a Schwinn.
• People are lazy. Per my point above, I know I need to lose weight and could definitely trim pounds with diet and exercise. Do I do nearly enough? No, because diet and exercise are a lot harder than eating what I want and sitting on my ass.

As an example... When I was briefly dating between my divorce and meeting my new wife, there was something that you'd see in basically *EVERY* girl's dating profile. They all love "hiking". Well, at the time I was doing a LOT of hiking. I was all over the trails, and we have great ones here, on a regular basis. Where were all these girls? If as many of them as claimed they liked hiking actually hiked regularly, those trails would have been DRIPPING with p***y. And not to say there were never girls hiking, but the amount that were on the trails were nothing in comparison to those who claimed they liked it.

Almost all of those people who say "I'd totally bike if it were safer like in Europe" are lying. Probably not intentionally; they're lying to themselves as much as they're lying to you. But people who want to bike, already bike. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 01:41:41 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 12:54:53 PM

The era of oil is coming to an end, with global oil production set to halve in the next five to six years. To avoid a global economic slump, the transition to 100% renewables worldwide needs to be accelerated. It is feasible and cheaper than the current system, research shows.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/)

Read more carefully, please...

Quote

It shows that with no new investment, global oil production — including all unconventional sources — will drop by 50% by 2025 (Figure 1). That means that the global oil supply crunch is likely to happen already in the next five to six years and not in decades, as many fossil fuel companies hope. The global annual oil production is set to decline by approximately six million barrels per day starting in 2020. That means in the coming years the provision of energy related to oil will reduce annually by an amount equal to the total energy demand of Germany in 2014.
(https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/04/image2-6.jpeg)

That "no new investment" bit is key. There's continued investment in finding oil. And just look at that chart... Do you honestly believe that's what oil production over the next 20 years will look like?

If you do believe this chart, mortgage/sell your house and start investing in oil futures, because they're going to SKYROCKET.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 01:53:51 PM

Energy from oil is used almost entirely for transportation.  Some is used to make chemicals of course.  If transportation electrifies, then oil demand would drop accordingly.  I read we'd be out of oil by the year 2000 .... in 1975.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 01:59:25 PM

Again, I'm after a marginal change. 5% would be great. And commuting to work on a bike doesn't work for a lot of people. That said, bicycles (and scooters) are great for short trips, under a couple of miles. A lot of people routinely make those trips in cars when they don't have any need to, and when taking the car (and needing to park) isn't much--if at all--faster. It's those short trips--whether to your local downtown or your commute hub--that are ripe for picking. That's why those scooters are doing so well--people like to be able to get outside and make the short trip on that kind of transportation. And again, studies show that the "if you build it they will come" theory is correct as it relates to cycling infrastructure. That's not going to be true in every application, but it is true in many.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 01:59:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 01:53:51 PM

Energy from oil is used almost entirely for transportation.  Some is used to make chemicals of course.  If transportation electrifies, then oil demand would drop accordingly.  I read we'd be out of oil by the year 2000 .... in 1975.

Totally agree. But if you look at that graph, there's no way future oil production looks even close to that... At least not on that timeline.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 02:03:07 PM

I see zero credible projections that oil production will drop by half by 2025, I view that as ludicrous.

(https://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/images/figure1.png)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264026/projections-of-us-oil-production/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/264026/projections-of-us-oil-production/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 02:10:46 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 01:59:25 PM

Again, I'm after a marginal change. 5% would be great. And commuting to work on a bike doesn't work for a lot of people. That said, bicycles (and scooters) are great for short trips, under a couple of miles. A lot of people routinely make those trips in cars when they don't have any need to, and when taking the car (and needing to park) isn't much--if at all--faster. It's those short trips--whether to your local downtown or your commute hub--that are ripe for picking. That's why those scooters are doing so well--people like to be able to get outside and make the short trip on that kind of transportation. And again, studies show that the "if you build it they will come" theory is correct as it relates to cycling infrastructure. That's not going to be true in every application, but it is true in many.

And I get it. I'd like to see more of it. I actually just bought a bike personally, and I'm trying to find excuses to use it.
I just think that one of the reasons that people haven't remade their lives to be more bike-friendly is because it's always going to be a niche. I think a lot of cyclists get into the "true believer cult" mode and think it's going to be a lot bigger than reality will support...
Just my $0.02... But I'm a cynical asshole. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 19, 2019, 02:14:42 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 12:54:53 PM

The era of oil is coming to an end, with global oil production set to halve in the next five to six years. To avoid a global economic slump, the transition to 100% renewables worldwide needs to be accelerated. It is feasible and cheaper than the current system, research shows.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/)

What are you talking about according to all the experts from the 70s we ran out of oil decades ago. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 02:19:59 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on April 19, 2019, 02:14:42 PM

What are you talking about according to all the experts from the 70s we ran out of oil decades ago.

That's ok... Didn't you see Jurassic Park and all the follow-on documentaries?
We had a lot of dinosaurs, and killed them, so now we have more oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 02:24:34 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 19, 2019, 02:10:46 PM

And I get it. I'd like to see more of it. I actually just bought a bike personally, and I'm trying to find excuses to use it.
I just think that one of the reasons that people haven't remade their lives to be more bike-friendly is because it's always going to be a niche. I think a lot of cyclists get into the "true believer cult" mode and think it's going to be a lot bigger than reality will support...
Just my $0.02... But I'm a cynical asshole.

I think autonomous vehicles will dramatically remake the transportation landscape. And I don't know how that will impact bicycles, specifically. It probably won't impact my working life much, but I suspect it will be big for my kids.

I agree that there are many zealots who see bigger changes than are reasonable to expect, but people on the fringes push for change. That's how things work. :-)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 02:27:35 PM

Nuclear fusion - the energy of the future, and always will be.

Hardly anyone is counting on commercial fusion in our lifetimes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 02:35:40 PM

Long interview with former head of Cadillac, he's obviously very pro EV:

https://www.automobilemag.com/news/johan-de-nysschen-interview-gm-cadillac-autonomy/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cba0cce0cef930001bcd540&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1edWUuHXy_i0grgHusUrBg8VPa0oCwLa0tOPkTRYEO_uQP7DdxtMMdIUU (https://www.automobilemag.com/news/johan-de-nysschen-interview-gm-cadillac-autonomy/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cba0cce0cef930001bcd540&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1edWUuHXy_i0grgHusUrBg8VPa0oCwLa0tOPkTRYEO_uQP7DdxtMMdIUU)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 02:52:59 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on April 19, 2019, 02:14:42 PM

What are you talking about according to all the experts from the 70s we ran out of oil decades ago.

I just posted the article because I thought it interesting.  I don't believe it.  I certainly hope it's not true
and yes, I remember the price of gas skyrocketing to 75 cents per gallon in 1976...  thought my father was gonna make the family walk through the Arizona dessert

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 19, 2019, 03:00:33 PM

The CleanTechnica article is hypothetical and unrealistic, but the EIA projections are for domestic production, which is a different matter altogether. Peak oil is a demand-side (not supply-side) issue now. I can't seem to find anything reported within the past year, but I'm pretty sure that domestic demand has basically been stagnant this decade.

That said, investment in oil & gas infrastructure is in decline. Many investors are reducing their investment in oil & gas companies (in some cases completely divesting though that's for good PR to some extent).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 03:05:27 PM

If investors net are reducing investment in oil companies, their stock prices should reflect that.

Investment by those companies is of course not predicated on stock price, but on cash flow and management.

(https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/image/Exhibit02_2018-Oil-Gas-Trends.gif)

Capex looks to be advancing strongly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 19, 2019, 03:42:00 PM

Most of that growth is a projection, and I'm skeptical about the objectivity of it.

Below are some articles from people in the oil & gas industry that are less optimistic:
https://www.ft.com/content/bc84470a-6e65-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa (https://www.ft.com/content/bc84470a-6e65-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa)
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041819-schlumberger-sees-need-for-more-spending-internationally-but-expects-lower-north-america-capex (https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041819-schlumberger-sees-need-for-more-spending-internationally-but-expects-lower-north-america-capex)
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Rapid-Acceleration-Towards-Peak-Oil-Demand.html (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Rapid-Acceleration-Towards-Peak-Oil-Demand.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 03:46:42 PM

I'm not surprised SLB would like to see more capital spending.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 03:57:50 PM

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-It-Too-Late-To-Avoid-An-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-It-Too-Late-To-Avoid-An-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html)

Interesting speculation about a rather large oil supply crunch ahead, which would mean high prices of course.  The boom-bust cycles must be a challenge to try and manage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2019, 10:40:55 AM

I turned our heat back on this AM, was 45°F outside.

You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 20, 2019, 11:12:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2019, 10:40:55 AM

I turned our heat back on this AM, was 45°F outside.

You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.

I turned my ac on yesterday it reached 100°F yesterday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2019, 12:53:15 PM

Cold here today. Only a high of 64.

Although we're going to a BBQ further inland where it's supposed to be 72 this afternoon. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2019, 02:09:30 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2019, 10:40:55 AM

You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.

google search for that info?
gonna be 80 here today, the golf course is full
first day of spring in the 80s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 21, 2019, 12:28:20 AM

As someone who does bike a fair amount, not commuting though, I bike with no trust of the drivers around me.  I don't blame heightened injuries on peds or bicyclists at all.  Smartphones and the drivers themselves get most of that blame.  I'm just saying some of the ambitious bike lane design I see is foolish. 

Anecdotal to be sure but we had a variety of folks years ago in Milwaukee that wanted to build dedicated bike lanes on the Hoan Bridge, a 2 mile arched span, elevated about 120 feet right along Lake Michigan.   The bridge has a colorful and checkered history for many other reasons.  However, were talking about a city which avg air temperature is below 50 degrees, on a bridge wholly exposed to the elements.  Half your ride  is a gradual ascent.   I love biking but this was crazy expensive and not at all sensible on an interstate spur, not to mention downtown is no less accessible on bike via the city streets below and adjacent to the bridge. I guess that route is a little too icky for some.  More of the bus v train talk.   DOT ended up rejecting the idea. 

Long bike lanes over bridges do work in a lot of places but some places just make no sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2019, 01:51:08 AM

So we've got temps in the 40s in some places and temps reaching 100 elsewhere...when are we all supposed to be biking everywhere?  I don't want frozen hands or to show up sweating buckets, sorry.
And no, a 2-mile trip isn't quicker or as quick on a bike.  I'll drive there, do my business, and be halfway back home before you're halfway to the place on your bike.  


Bikes are great as the dominant transportation for 12 year olds, but that's about it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2019, 05:59:24 AM

That can depend on traffic, and availability of dedicated bike lanes.  Around here there are times when biking, even walking, is a lot faster than driving.

That is one reason the scooters are so popular too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:02:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2019, 10:40:55 AM

You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.

Simultaneously?HA - I got 24 :017: can't be done................by me :sign0085: ....................... °,just copy and pasted one ;D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2019, 10:21:49 AM

The Ascii characters have to be done on the key pad, not the numbers above the keyboard.

≈°∙··Θßα▀▐ΓπΣσ▲

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:45:04 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 01:16:40 PM

putting up "share the road" signs on a dangerous road doesn't make it safe

Just last week a buddy and I went out to some old farmsteads where he grew up at.Sadly almost all farms/fields/woods have been gobbled up by "Progress" :'(.Anyway we turned down this old country lane still there with a brooke running next to it.Still some old farms/homes on it.It was kind of winding with just slight embankments on both sides with woods.We did have a small jeep come by as we in his big Dodge Ram were leaving and that was a bit hairy with little room for maneuver.The worst that could have happened however is one vehicle slid into the ditch/culvert.Not like those roads set high in the Andes Mtns in Peru.I imagine back in the day it prolly happened more than few times though.Friend said when they were teenagers he stole away there with girlfriends.We were back there looking for places to metal detect - getting old

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:54:07 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2019, 10:21:49 AM

The Ascii characters have to be done on the key pad, not the numbers above the keyboard.

≈°∙··Θßα▀▐ΓπΣσ▲

ya well good luck hitting all those at precisely the same time.Need a friend or an octopus - copy/paste works for me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2019, 12:12:47 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:45:04 AM

We were back there looking for places to metal detect - getting old

dude, that's old
most roads are fine for sharing with cyclists
some are just plain dangerous

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 22, 2019, 02:37:16 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2019, 01:51:08 AM

So we've got temps in the 40s in some places and temps reaching 100 elsewhere...when are we all supposed to be biking everywhere?  I don't want frozen hands or to show up sweating buckets, sorry.
And no, a 2-mile trip isn't quicker or as quick on a bike.  I'll drive there, do my business, and be halfway back home before you're halfway to the place on your bike.  


Bikes are great as the dominant transportation for 12 year olds, but that's about it.  

Suffice it to say, you are not the target audience for cycling infrastructure--and it is different depending on climate, infrastructure, etc. But, yeah, a 2-mile trip on a bike is often as fast as it is in a car because of parking and route choice. Always? No, but often? Yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2019, 03:12:39 PM

It would tend to be as fast in an urban setting, not where we lived in suburban Cincinnati, but would be here where we live now most of the time.

The traffic around us is not bad at all midday, say 10-3 PM.  That has surprised me.  The freeway is usually a disaster at that time anyway.  I'm pretty sure I could make better time driving south on Peachtree St. versus the Connector most work days.

(https://media.timesfreepress.com/img/photos/2015/04/10/screenshot20150410at72442am9643706185_t377_h280edf31651c526e8a3d4945a9e59c06e95d903e.jpg)(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/66/2b/48/662b485a4a171149c24dd34189527251.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2019, 06:54:28 PM

Elon Musk claims that Tesla will have "robotaxis" next year. 

Does anyone believe him?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2019, 07:17:41 PM

oh, he will have one next year

the question is:  Will it perform well enough to be widely deployed?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2019, 07:46:42 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 22, 2019, 07:17:41 PM

oh, he will have one next year

the question is:  Will it perform well enough to be widely deployed?

The bigger question... Would you ride in one?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2019, 08:36:38 PM

I might try one once, just because I'm fearless

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2019, 12:53:49 AM

I'd try one, but I unfortunately don't have confidence that Tesla will survive long enough to really have a chance to win out on the autonomous driving race.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2019, 03:57:39 AM

Riding in the taxi isn't the fearsome part, being a pedestrian near one is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 12:41:15 PM

You can bet they will be safer than human drivers. Autonomous vehicles don't have blind spots, don't get distracted, and the chance of a true error is much, much smaller than human error. Can't wait for this change. (Yes, I'm a broken record.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2019, 12:58:42 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 12:41:15 PM

You can bet they will be safer than human drivers. Autonomous vehicles don't have blind spots, don't get distracted, and the chance of a true error is much, much smaller than human error. Can't wait for this change. (Yes, I'm a broken record.)

I agree that when it happens, it will only happen if they're much safer than human drivers. I agree that it will happen.
It won't be Tesla, in 2020.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2019, 01:41:21 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 23, 2019, 12:58:42 PM

I agree that when it happens, it will only happen if they're much safer than human drivers. I agree that it will happen.
It won't be Tesla, in 2020.

So, maybe Boeing then?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2019, 01:47:29 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 23, 2019, 12:58:42 PM

I agree that when it happens, it will only happen if they're much safer than human drivers. I agree that it will happen.
It won't be Tesla, in 2020.

Oh, they're much, MUCH safer than human drivers now.  They're like 80-85% safer today...but when they inevitably hurt or kill someone, there's no one to blame.  That's why they're not widespread right now - when a human screws up and kills someone, we can point our finger and hate them and sue them and put them in jail.  When a machine does it (far, FAR less often), we get to do none of that. 
Sad to say, but that's why they're not commonplace yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: rolltidefan on April 23, 2019, 02:04:03 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:45:04 AM

Just last week a buddy and I went out to some old farmsteads where he grew up at.Sadly almost all farms/fields/woods have been gobbled up by "Progress" :'(.Anyway we turned down this old country lane still there with a brooke running next to it.Still some old farms/homes on it.It was kind of winding with just slight embankments on both sides with woods.We did have a small jeep come by as we in his big Dodge Ram were leaving and that was a bit hairy with little room for maneuver.The worst that could have happened however is one vehicle slid into the ditch/culvert.Not like those roads set high in the Andes Mtns in Peru.I imagine back in the day it prolly happened more than few times though.Friend said when they were teenagers he stole away there with girlfriends.We were back there looking for places to metal detect - getting old

nah, you're just his latest girlfriend. :88:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 02:29:55 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2019, 01:47:29 PM

Oh, they're much, MUCH safer than human drivers now.  They're like 80-85% safer today...but when they inevitably hurt or kill someone, there's no one to blame.  That's why they're not widespread right now - when a human screws up and kills someone, we can point our finger and hate them and sue them and put them in jail.  When a machine does it (far, FAR less often), we get to do none of that.
Sad to say, but that's why they're not commonplace yet.

I don't think you're far off. Waymo is ready now. I bet Tesla is, too. And I'm sure there are others. The hurdles are regulatory, not technology. And there are a lot of financial interests in stopping the advent of autonomous vehicles, so that's keeping the pace slower than it would otherwise be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2019, 02:59:47 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2019, 01:47:29 PM

Oh, they're much, MUCH safer than human drivers now.  They're like 80-85% safer today...but when they inevitably hurt or kill someone, there's no one to blame.  That's why they're not widespread right now - when a human screws up and kills someone, we can point our finger and hate them and sue them and put them in jail.  When a machine does it (far, FAR less often), we get to do none of that.
Sad to say, but that's why they're not commonplace yet.

I don't necessarily buy that they're much safer today. I think you have to categorize where and when they're safer.
They're obviously better than humans at one critical thing--paying attention and not being distracted. An autonomous vehicle isn't going to get into a wreck because it was distracted by a pretty girl walking down the street. Or because it was texting.
I'd also say that they're probably better at certain predictable tasks--cruising on the interstate, for example. It's not going to get inattentive and drift out of the lane [assuming lane markings exist]. 
But where they're NOT yet safer is in handling unpredictable situations. You know, like when the car you're following moves out of the lane and your car doesn't recognize that there's a stopped fire truck in your way and just proceeds to slam into it. Maybe that's only 1% (or less) of what a driver does, but the human brain is much more adaptable than current self-driving vehicles. 
Until they get that 1% figured out, they're all just "driver assist" technologies. 
(FYI that's not nearly as true of Waymo from what I understand--but they also aren't claiming their system is a year away from commercial adoption like Tesla is.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2019, 03:02:10 PM

I think until cars are able to communicate with each via telemetry, we won't have a truly autonomous system.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2019, 03:02:31 PM

I love cars and automobile culture, but I'll welcome in the autonomous driving era with open arms-- especially an autonomous driving fleet for hire.  No worries about a designated driver, no worries about parking, the ability to get work done whilst on the way to work-- the benefits are tremendous.

And when they come up with autonomous ski boat fleets for hire, and autonomous RVs, then I'll never have to drive another vehicle again!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 23, 2019, 03:05:49 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 12:41:15 PM

You can bet they will be safer than human drivers. Autonomous vehicles don't have blind spots, don't get distracted, and the chance of a true error is much, much smaller than human error. Can't wait for this change. (Yes, I'm a broken record.)

happened here in Phoenix. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2019, 03:08:18 PM

https://www.automobilemag.com/news/electric-vehicle-range-ev-cars-mileage-best-worst/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cbefe5f16ce3f000141dbc6&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1dl3Uc_mo2fdnJPGqRwDkXgsSbx4oJura9-14iFlXIUvhuH95zo3BZT_U (https://www.automobilemag.com/news/electric-vehicle-range-ev-cars-mileage-best-worst/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cbefe5f16ce3f000141dbc6&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1dl3Uc_mo2fdnJPGqRwDkXgsSbx4oJura9-14iFlXIUvhuH95zo3BZT_U)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2019, 03:29:26 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on April 23, 2019, 03:05:49 PM

happened here in Phoenix. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html)

And that's the thing... As they say in the article, there was no indication that the car attempted to slow down. This one even had LIDAR (unlike Tesla)... Weather was clear and the roads were dry, so no issues there.
Truth is that none of these cars will be perfectly safe, due to the laws of physics. If a car is traveling 45 mph and a pedestrian walks in front of it, you can't stop that inertia immediately.
But when these cars don't even try to stop, you know you have a software problem. You can't claim it didn't "see" the person with LIDAR. It just decided that whatever it saw wasn't an obstacle it needed to avoid. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 04:27:26 PM

Unquestionably there are errors with self-driving cars, but what happened in Arizona wasn't the result of self-driving cars--it was a car in semi-autonomous mode without automatic braking enabled:
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/tempe/2019/03/17/one-year-after-self-driving-uber-rafaela-vasquez-behind-wheel-crash-death-elaine-herzberg-tempe/1296676002/ (https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/tempe/2019/03/17/one-year-after-self-driving-uber-rafaela-vasquez-behind-wheel-crash-death-elaine-herzberg-tempe/1296676002/)

Quote

Uber had taken away the ability for the self-driving car to brake itself in emergencies, although it could do so at lights and stop signs. 

The vehicles were giving jerky rides, braking at every minor obstacle, including small birds flying in front of the cars. An NTSB report on the accident said Uber disabled the system to prevent "erratic vehicle behavior."

The Volvo came equipped with City Safety Technology, an emergency braking system the company installed in its cars to avoid or mitigate crashes. But Uber officials had disabled that system as well when the car was operating in autonomous mode. Emergencies were left for the driver to handle. 

That's not to say similar things can't or won't happen. But, as we look at the steadily growing number of deaths on the road (https://www.motortrend.com/news/u-s-traffic-deaths-2018-how-many/ (https://www.motortrend.com/news/u-s-traffic-deaths-2018-how-many/)) and human error causing 95% of traffic wrecks (https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812115 (https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812115)), it's not hard to see that removing humans from the equation will improve safety for everyone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2019, 04:42:12 PM

Good stuff, SFBadge... I looked at Riffraft's link but it was right after it occurred and didn't seem to have all that contextual information.

So that's good (obviously bad for that woman) that this wasn't actually a "driverless car" failure, in that it should have been handled by the safety driver because some features had been disabled.

I still think the point stands. Nobody other than Tesla is claiming Level 5 autonomy in the near future. But Tesla is talking about the robotaxis going live next year and removing steering wheels within 2 years. Which is just fantasy as far as I'm concerned.

I look forward to the autonomous car future as well. Hell, i drink. Never having to worry about a DD would make life easier. But even beyond that, my chivalrous nature leads me to be the almost 100% sole driver on basically every road trip I go on with my wife. I don't mind it, but it'd be FAR more enjoyable to let the car handle it instead of me wasting my energy and concentration on it. 

I just think that everyone is engaging in hype like this is going to be here next weekend, when it's--at best--5 to 10 years out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on April 23, 2019, 04:43:48 PM

I wonder how quickly someone will hack into those when they actually become useful...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2019, 05:34:35 PM

I think Elon has gone around the bend myself.  I have thought he was borderline for a while, and now he's pure bat crazy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 05:41:36 PM

I'm not a huge fan, either. And--for whatever it's worth--strong rumor is that working at Tesla SUCKS because it's such a manic place.

But I think Teslas are nice cars (though I decided they weren't so nice that they were worth the price tag).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2019, 05:45:25 PM

They are a remarkable achievement, and Space X is doing some neat things, but I think Elon needs to be put out to pasture.

All the promises made over the years and a few of them delivered.  Remember the cheap solar roof tiles?  Come on.  Focus, get something done, and then move along.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2019, 02:28:50 AM

Driverless cars could populate our roads tomorrow and there would be thousands of fewer auto deaths......but we wait and squabble and debate.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2019, 08:02:51 AM

I'll keep my car because I like driving it. You'd have to peel my cold dead fingers from the steering wheel to get me to give it up. Grrr...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2019, 08:23:59 AM

My guess is that certain lanes and certain portions of cities will be reserved for autocars.  I've speculated about autocars zipping past in the two left lanes on a freeway in close order at 120 mph or so.  Most of us would prefer that to driving 75 mph in the right lane.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2019, 12:50:24 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2019, 02:28:50 AM

Driverless cars could populate our roads tomorrow and there would be thousands of fewer auto deaths......but we wait and squabble and debate.  

we are human, reluctant to change
especially if the folks in power aren't sure how the cash flow will be affected

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2019, 01:27:21 PM

I think with autocars there are a LOT of things to be figured out beyond the merely technical.

My car will maintain its lane and keep the right distance behind the car in front of me using adaptive speed control.  Oddly enough, after about 10 seconds of no manual adjustments, it flashes a warning and tells me to start steering again.  The old Caddy would vibrate the seat, which was a bit unnerving initially.  

Liability issues in a litigious society, enough said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2019, 02:01:51 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2019, 02:28:50 AM

Driverless cars could populate our roads tomorrow and there would be thousands of fewer auto deaths......but we wait and squabble and debate.  

With all due respect, I think you're underestimating the difficulties in full autonomous driving. It's a much more difficult issue than you'd think, unless we have "geofenced" purpose-built infrastructure.
The transition to autonomous driving is going to take a while. It's expensive, it needs to coexist for now alongside human driving during the early adoption phase [which makes it even more difficult], it needs to be functional in all times of day, all weather, all road conditions, etc. 
It's not trivial. If it were merely a technical/price issue, we'd already have autonomous luxury vehicles. I'm sure rich people would spend for it. But we don't. The BEST we can do with current technology is driver assist. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2019, 02:04:31 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 24, 2019, 12:50:24 PM

we are human, reluctant to change

I'd go all in but if hackers can get into homes and businesses - they'll get into your car.With more dire consequences I'm thinking

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2019, 04:47:23 PM

Plenty of security tests with hackers being able to remotely enter the vehicle's internal service network.  They've been able to remotely kill the engine, turn off braking capability, apply the brakes, and change the radio station which is what would piss me off the most, probably.  Just ask my wife...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2019, 05:07:55 PM

As long as I can shift into neutral, mechanically, I should be happy.  I saw those stories about hacked cars.  Shift into neutral you dummy.  Forget all that electromagnetic jazz.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2019, 05:15:38 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2019, 02:28:50 AM

Driverless cars could populate our roads tomorrow and there would be thousands of fewer auto deaths......but we wait and squabble and debate.

You could say the same thing about a national 10 mph speed limit.
Or raising the driving age to 25.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2019, 09:03:04 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2019, 05:15:38 PM

You could say the same thing about a national 10 mph speed limit.
Or raising the driving age to 25.

I'd be happier with the voting age being 25. 
Or 45. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2019, 10:30:43 PM

Tesla earnings came out today. 

Oof! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2019, 05:44:35 AM

Right....except those aren't inevitably going to happen.  There aren't top corporations against the quick change that is possible because they might miss out on a dollar or two, so they delay. 


***sorry but the "quote" function on the site has been really hit-or-miss lately, so this quoted no one....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2019, 08:05:48 AM

https://www.thestreet.com/technology/tesla-misses-estimates-but-forecasts-a-stronger-second-half-8-key-takeaways-14937097?puc=CNBC&cm_ven=CNBC (https://www.thestreet.com/technology/tesla-misses-estimates-but-forecasts-a-stronger-second-half-8-key-takeaways-14937097?puc=CNBC&cm_ven=CNBC)

Those numbers aren't bad enough to tank the stock.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 25, 2019, 12:25:11 PM

Well, if you believe Elon, that demand is still through the roof and their production problems are completely a thing of the past... And that they'll deliver 90-100K cars in Q2 without cratering their ASP and margins. And that they'll have 1M robotaxis on the road in 2020. And that they're about to launch an insurance product of their own [another business they have no experience in]. And that their powerwall and solar roof is finally ready. And that they'll get the Model Y, the Semi, and the Roadster out on time to meet stellar demand. 

Yeah, if you believe all of Elon's forecasts, the future is bright...

Of course, if you fill one hand with on-time and accurate successful Tesla forecasts, and crap in the other, guess which one fills up first?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2019, 12:34:59 PM

I don't believe much of what Elon says obviously.  For Tesla to be a success today, I think they need traditional management, not Elon, at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 25, 2019, 01:08:52 PM

I think the problem for the stock is that it's valued like a hyper-growth tech company, not a car company.

Which is fine if growth continues on that trajectory. But not fine if it doesn't. I know which one I'd bet on.

Fundamentally the company could survive, if they can find a way to operate more efficiently and improve margins. At this point it would probably take a Chapter 11 to really get them "right", because the SolarCity acquisition is a huge weight of debt hanging on their necks. But if they were able to restructure and re-optimize [probably without Elon], I think they could pivot into being a long-term automaker.

Problem is that their investors are trying to hang onto that hyper-growth narrative, because it's the only way to avoid going under. And they can't get the hyper-growth narrative without Elon's false promises, so they're stuck with him.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2019, 01:46:58 PM

Could you just ignore any words from Musk and just go by what the company is?
I mean, the only reason anyone cares about Tesla or its stock is that it's POSSIBLE half the homes in the U.S. will run on a Tesla battery in 10 years or some such thing.  That's the "maybe" ceiling, isn't it?  Aside from the cars and the taxis and the tunnels, et al?


I'm under the impression their feasible battery tech is what makes the company a possible whale, no?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 25, 2019, 02:05:26 PM

Only if any lead in battery tech is defensible. And if they have the R&D funds to extend their development. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 25, 2019, 02:54:07 PM

On the energy storage side, Tesla is more focused on building utility-scale battery systems, like the ones that California has been and continues to deploy, as opposed to Powerwalls (ie. residential & commercial systems). The market for utility-scale systems is much more established at this point, especially in places like Hawaii and California that already have a significant amount of renewable generation.

That said, the market for batteries at commercial & industrial, municipal, and institutional facilities is growing. This is because their rate structures typically include time-of-use or real-time pricing (as opposed to a flat rate at all hours), as well as demand charges where the facility pays a charge based on its peak demand. This way, these facilities can charge the systems at night (when demand and electricity prices are lowest) and discharge them in the afternoon and/or evening.... Pumped hydro systems do this, as well, and hydro plants are increasingly being utilized in the evenings to mitigate the "Duck Curve" phenomenon caused by high levels of solar generation.

All that said, the value of residential battery systems is increasing, especially in disaster prone areas (eg. Caribbean & Gulf Coast due to hurricanes, areas of California most affected by forest fires) to be a source of backup / emergency power, especially if paired with roof-top solar. Otherwise, the economics aren't there yet in most places, but it's getting close. Some utilities are implementing time-of-use or real-time pricing as an option for residential customers (in California, it's becoming the default option), but that's not common yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 25, 2019, 03:18:34 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2019, 05:44:35 AM

Right....except those aren't inevitably going to happen.  There aren't top corporations against the quick change that is possible because they might miss out on a dollar or two, so they delay. 


***sorry but the "quote" function on the site has been really hit-or-miss lately, so this quoted no one....

you wouldn't believe the time i've put into finding and fixing this issue.... 

when you quote now, you'll have a blue box which should help some folks not type in the quote itself, but it will render as it did before.  

also, there is now a drag and drop feature, which works for text or pictures (though i haven't tested it extensively yet). 

I'm getting there.... I swear. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2019, 03:45:57 PM

Hawaii was 27% renewable in 2018.  That is almost double the rate for the rest of the US.

https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/hawaiian-electric-companies-achieve-27-percent-renewable-energy-in-2018-despite-loss-of-geothermal (https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/hawaiian-electric-companies-achieve-27-percent-renewable-energy-in-2018-despite-loss-of-geothermal)

Renewable energy accounted for 12.2 % of total primary energy consumption and 14.94 % of the domestically produced electricity in the United States in 2016.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2019, 09:21:42 PM

Badge: How about this: "You may vote when you are no longer being supported by your parents, and that includes your parents' health insurance"?


Why can I not quote a post, and why, when I try to reply, do I get the "Quick Reply" box that doesn't include any emojis?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2019, 09:26:25 PM

By NPR   Tuesday, April 9, 2019
Are Plastic Bag Bans Garbage?
Greg Rosalsky

It was only about 40 years ago that plastic bags became standard at U.S. grocery stores. This also made them standard in sewers, landfills, rivers and the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. They clog drains and cause floods, litter landscapes and kill wildlife. The national movement to get rid of them is gaining steam — with more than 240 cities and counties passing laws that ban or tax them since 2007. New York recently became the second U.S. state to ban them. But these bans may be hurting the environment more than helping it.

University of Sydney economist Rebecca Taylor started studying bag regulations because it seemed as though every time she moved for a new job — from Washington, D.C., to California to Australia — bag restrictions were implemented shortly after. "Yeah, these policies might be following me," she jokes. Taylor recently published a study of bag regulations in California. It's a classic tale of unintended consequences.

Before California banned plastic shopping bags statewide in late 2016, a wave of 139 California cities and counties implemented the policy themselves. Taylor and colleagues compared bag use in cities with bans with those without them. For six months, they spent weekends in grocery stores tallying the types of bags people carried out (she admits these weren't her wildest weekends). She also analyzed these stores' sales data.

Taylor found these bag bans did what they were supposed to: People in the cities with the bans used fewer plastic bags, which led to about 40 million fewer pounds of plastic trash per year. But people who used to reuse their shopping bags for other purposes, like picking up dog poop or lining trash bins, still needed bags. "What I found was that sales of garbage bags actually skyrocketed after plastic grocery bags were banned," she says. This was particularly the case for small, 4-gallon bags, which saw a 120 percent increase in sales after bans went into effect.

Trash bags are thick and use more plastic than typical shopping bags. "So about 30 percent of the plastic that was eliminated by the ban comes back in the form of thicker garbage bags," Taylor says. On top of that, cities that banned plastic bags saw a surge in the use of paper bags, which she estimates resulted in about 80 million pounds of extra paper trash per year.

Plastic haters, it's time to brace yourselves. A bunch of studies find that paper bags are actually worse for the environment. They require cutting down and processing trees, which involves lots of water, toxic chemicals, fuel and heavy machinery. While paper is biodegradable and avoids some of the problems of plastic, Taylor says, the huge increase of paper, together with the uptick in plastic trash bags, means banning plastic shopping bags increases greenhouse gas emissions. That said, these bans do reduce nonbiodegradable litter.

What about reusable cloth bags? We know die-hard public radio fans love them! They've got to be great, right?

Nope. They can be even worse.

A 2011 study by the U.K. government found a person would have to reuse a cotton tote bag 131 times before it was better for climate change than using a plastic grocery bag once. The Danish government recently did a study that took into account environmental impacts beyond simply greenhouse gas emissions, including water use, damage to ecosystems and air pollution. These factors make cloth bags even worse. They estimate you would have to use an organic cotton bag 20,000 times more than a plastic grocery bag to make using it better for the environment.

That said, the Danish government's estimate doesn't take into account the effects of bags littering land and sea, where plastic is clearly the worst offender.

Stop depressing me. What should we do?

The most environment-friendly way to carry groceries is to use the same bag over and over again. According to the Danish study, the best reusable ones are made from polyester or plastics like polypropylene. Those still have to be used dozens and dozens of times to be greener than plastic grocery bags, which have the smallest carbon footprint for a single use.

As for bag policies, Taylor says a fee is smarter than a ban. She has a second paper showing a small fee for bags is just as effective as a ban when it comes to encouraging use of reusable bags. But a fee offers flexibility for people who reuse plastic bags for garbage disposal or dog walking.

Taylor believes the recent legislation passed in New York is a bad version of the policy. It bans only plastic bags and gives free rein to using paper ones (counties have the option to impose a 5-cent fee on them). Taylor is concerned this will drive up paper use. The best policy, Taylor says, imposes a fee on both paper and plastic bags and encourages reuse.

This bag research makes public radio's love for tote bags awkward, doesn't it? It might be weird, though, if we started giving out plastic grocery bags.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 25, 2019, 09:32:46 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 25, 2019, 09:21:42 PM

Badge: How about this: "You may vote when you are no longer being supported by your parents, and that includes your parents' health insurance"?


Why can I not quote a post, and why, when I try to reply, do I get the "Quick Reply" box that doesn't include any emojis?

hold shift hit refresh (or hold the shift key and hit f5).... I've been cleaning up some conflicting scripts and hope to have it whooped. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2019, 09:40:04 PM

No sweat, Drew.  I know you bust your tail on this.  Thanks for all you do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 25, 2019, 09:55:06 PM

i actually find it fun... a lot of tiny moving parts that all contribute in concert with the whole... it's the concert part i'm struggling with right now.  just a few more loose ends and it'll be good and locked down not to be messed with again. 

speaking of weather climate and environment- the pool is at a decent temperature for swimming, and has been for a couple weeks.  it's funny to me and something i measure the seasons by- some years it is 75+ degrees by mid-march... others, it isn't until May.  it's dead on 'average' now...... y'all dig this:

my wife has determined she doesn't like the color of the pool for some reason... it's a fiberglass insert, likely 32' x 14', deep end 6'.... she's paid a company to 'eco-finish' it.  it amounts to a bed-liner by my reckoning...  spray on bed liner of some trendy color.  go figure. 

of course, this is akin to her asking all coy like if she could buy new plates for the kitchen... i considered 'what trap is this?' for a moment before inquiring about the budget for such a purchase... she said less than $200... so i confidently and assertively announced "certainly, wife, purchase your plates"...

gents, it was a trap.  don't you know cabinets have to match the plates?  cabinets>> counters... counters>>> appliances>>>>paint>>>>lights... $15k'ish later... grrrrr... so she is rhino-lining the pool... guess what's next? pavers... coming stones... stained and printed concrete..... and then, at least once a month, she looks me dead in the eye with a hint of disappointment and asks "why don't we ever travel anymore? why don't we have a huge savings account?"......

eh.... gotta love it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 25, 2019, 10:26:35 PM

I had to explain to my i s c & a aggie wife that the reason she doesn't already have a new car, is that she spends almost twice a monthly car payment (for a pretty darn nice car) on trips to Costco, Target, Old Navy, and buying crap on Amazon.  I mean, probably 1/3 of it is legitimate household needs, but the rest is just really useless garbage.

She didn't believe me until I showed her the budget.  And then she did not appreciate my tone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2019, 08:14:21 AM

Costco is evil, very evil.  I own a bit of stock in COST to make me feel better about it.  We go in needing 7 items and come out having spent $500 and I think "Well, it helps their stock.".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on April 26, 2019, 09:16:14 AM

Doomed by Global Warming by 2030 or perhaps a new ice age...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1114503/weather-forecast-long-range-nasa-noaa-news-solar-minimum-space-weather (https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1114503/weather-forecast-long-range-nasa-noaa-news-solar-minimum-space-weather)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2019, 10:18:32 AM

I think the best model I've read about for homes is not a stand alone battery pack, but using the car (EV) to provide backup power as needed.  If the variable power was in excess, the car would soak it up, and if it dropped, the car would feed it back to the house.  Of course you could wake to a dead car battery (almost).

I also think the Uber autocar thing is going to change our way of life a LOT in the coming decade.  A LOT.  My neighbors have both told me their next car will be an Uber.

Lyft whatever.

It's $20 to get to the airport on Uber and $5 to get there by MARTA, after a 5 block walk with luggage, some of that uphill.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2019, 10:44:38 AM

hey, if your house drains your car battery overnight during an outage, at least the alarm goes off on time and you can simply click the app for an uber ride to work or wherever

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2019, 11:49:17 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2019, 08:14:21 AM

Costco is evil, very evil.  I own a bit of stock in COST to make me feel better about it.  We go in needing 7 items and come out having spent $500 and I think "Well, it helps their stock.".

Yeah... I don't consider Costco to be "evil" in the sense that I'm regularly buying a ton of things I don't need, but I spend a LOT of money there... I ended up upgrading to the executive membership thinking as long as the 2% reward paid for the membership cost difference, I came out ahead. It ended up paying for the entire membership and then some.

Granted, where I live is a little different... I have about 5 Costco stores in a 10 mile radius. Extend out to say 25 miles, and there's probably 25 stores. So I go weekly, and it's where we buy almost the entirety of our meat, produce, and dairy. Olive oil, garlic, bread, etc. Not to mention good prices on beer/wine. Given that we cook at home on average a little over 6 nights per week, that ends up being a pretty damn big bill. 

I have been considering buying some COST stock, actually. I just haven't researched enough to really understand the investment. I'm assuming it's more of a stable "dividend-producing" stock than a growth stock, but maybe I'm wrong on that. But I could see it as a good hedge when some of my more aggressive technology investments (that tend to be cyclical) are on down cycles. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2019, 12:00:13 PM

nearest Costco is over 90 miles away

So I avoid that evil and find evil closer to home with other names

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2019, 12:20:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2019, 10:18:32 AM

I think the best model I've read about for homes is not a stand alone battery pack, but using the car (EV) to provide backup power as needed.  If the variable power was in excess, the car would soak it up, and if it dropped, the car would feed it back to the house.  Of course you could wake to a dead car battery (almost).

I think that's a good model in many ways, but it has a lot of holes in it...

• The general model for most EVs is that you charge your car overnight, which prepares it for the next day. 
• If you're out and about during the day [when daily A/C load on the system is highest] and power goes out, your car isn't connected. So you have no protection from outages unless you're home with the power connected.
• If you're using a variable source to power something in your house (solar/wind), the highest power output is during the day while your car isn't connected. So that energy isn't going into your battery.

A standalone battery pack is ideal for people who are putting in solar/etc and who live in places where it's not particularly beneficial (or heavily subsizided) to sell that power back into the grid. They can fill their batteries all day while they're at work, using zero power from the grid. Then overnight they can charge their EV off their stored battery power, using zero from the grid. 

I have my own issues with solar/battery packs [they make GREAT sense, but the cost to install vs the payoff period requires a lot of upfront capital that largely make them luxury items], but if I were a homeowner and knew I'd be in a single house for more than a decade, I'd definitely consider it. My last house [which I hadn't intended to leave, but had to sell in the divorce] was coming up on needing a new roof, and my thought was that would be the perfect time to add solar. 

Quote

I also think the Uber autocar thing is going to change our way of life a LOT in the coming decade.  A LOT.  My neighbors have both told me their next car will be an Uber.

Lyft whatever.

It's $20 to get to the airport on Uber and $5 to get there by MARTA, after a 5 block walk with luggage, some of that uphill.

I think we're going that direction, certainly--for people who live in densely populated areas. But I think even in SoCal, the sprawl makes it tough. I live about 14 miles from my office. Assuming ~22 work days per month via Uber at [I just checked] $19 each way, that's $836/month just to get to/from work. And judging from my coworkers, my commute is average to slightly below average distance. And that's not counting the days I have the kids and have to factor in additional distance for dropoff/pickups at school, and that I'd need larger than an UberX to haul them around. Counting my car payment, insurance [estimate as I don't know the marginal cost of my car with the other two], and the $0.55 federal reimbursement rate for mileage [assuming gas / wear & tear], that's ~$900 a month and gives me 100% freedom to drive everywhere else I want to go--and at the end of my payoff period, I should still be able to get 4-5 more years of driving out of the car. And not only that, gives me a large, cushy, 7-passenger vehicle with more than enough room for my whole family and luggage. 

If I lived somewhere walkable and where parking was an issue, I could understand it. But we live in a world where we live where we like / can afford and work where we can get jobs that pay us what we want. 

I think there's a lot of value for a lot of people in stepping away from car ownership and going to a 100% ride-hailing / mass transit & perhaps an OCCASIONAL rental car existence. But I also think that people overestimate the ease at which you can live that way 100% of the time outside of dense urban city centers. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2019, 04:38:58 PM

I can imagine living in the 'burbs and having an Uber autocar out front at & am each weekday waiting for me, taking me to work while I read do email, and then reverse on the way home.  The wife would likely have a minivan/SUV for her trips with the kids and family vacations etc.

There would still be pickups for working folks.

Boats of course would be entirely battery powered, and they;d have retractable wheels like an airplane so they could be driven on land.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2019, 05:06:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2019, 04:38:58 PM

There would still be pickups for working folks.

No doubt. 

Only point I had is that right now, I capitalize my own transportation, including all risks of maintenance, insurance, etc. If we move to a ride-hailing world, two things change:

• I have to also provide some level of "profit" for the owner of the transportation, or they won't provide it. Note that this has to be in addition to purely the cost of my trip, because no matter how efficient you get there's always some level of inefficiency in getting the car from one departure destination to another rider's pickup destination. So even if it's 5% downtime / down mileage, you have 5% inefficiency.
• I have to provide some level of "profit" to the rideshare company which organizes/schedules/arranges these trips. They're not going to do it for free.

Now, it's entirely possible that for some people, in some locales, the cost of doing all that is lower than the cost of maintaining and capitalizing their own vehicle, because the downside to owning a vehicle is the downtime where it's sitting. There may be additional headaches and costs due to parking/etc. Also, obviously if I have to purchase a car, I lose the opportunity cost of that expenditure (if bought in cash) or add have additional expense (if financed). So that can raise the cost of ownership beyond what a larger entity owning a fleet might see, given they can operate nearly 24/7 and their profit can be small per mile but big per car over a 24/7 work week.

I'm just saying that in dense urban city centers, where you have to pay for parking, where many trips are walkable, etc, the calculation is MUCH less in favor of auto ownership. In sprawl, suburban, or rural areas, it's currently in favor of auto ownership. It will take time for that to change, if ever. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 26, 2019, 06:54:02 PM

Given that the cost of car ownership averages $8-10K per car, the economics of ride sharing aren't all that hard to work out--particularly if combined with a semi-decent public transit system and factoring not having to pay the driver of the car (which is why Lyft and Uber are so excited about autonomous vehicles). Unquestionably, ride sharing works better the more densely populated a region is--and better still if connected to quality public transit.

In San Francisco, Lyft and Uber have found that customers are quite willing to pay less to share a car with strangers headed in the same direction. Presumably that's not unique to San Francisco. That could lead to a sea-change in how people get from point a to point b, because it's not a big leap from sharing a car with strangers, to using (effective) mass transit.

That's speculative, of course, but I can say from personal experience, going to a single car for a family four has not been all that hard (we  live in a suburb, not the city), saves us a ton of money, and we still only put about 10K miles a year on it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2019, 08:54:28 PM

uber and lyft will obviously find new competition that has found new efficiencies and ways to operate with less profit

it's not hard to imagine a time when owning a vehicle is much more expensive than  renting rides

think aircraft, flying commercial or renting a small plane is more economical than owning a plane and employing a pilot

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 26, 2019, 08:57:56 PM

We are nearing a point when uber and lyft will near to raise fares and I would argue not marginally.  They have much more pricing power and pressure now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2019, 09:01:07 PM

raising prices almost always drops a considerable percentage of customers

many times it's for the best and can be overcome

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 27, 2019, 12:13:27 PM

Lyft and Uber will fall in cost once they can fire their drivers with autonomous vehicles. Otherwise, they wouldn't be able to destroy the car ownership model, which is their end goal.

As for battery storage, it is more economical for places without net-metering policies, but most states have that. Net-metering basically means you only pay the difference between what you use and what you generate at regular price per kWh. Iowa is currently considering charging customers for having roof-top solar, which is ridiculous, but a few other states have passed similar policies, though they've been retracted in some cases, like in Nevada. Certainly, electric vehicles can provide a lot of the same benefits as Powerwalls, and eventually EV owners will be compensated for letting utilities control their charging rates / times (V1G and V2G are the jargon terms for this if you're interested). Same thing will eventually happen with appliances (dish washers, washers / dryers).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2019, 01:41:50 PM

Costco is a growth stock, highPE, low dividend.  It is closer to Amazon than Kroger.  My investment has more than doubled in 3 years or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2019, 01:55:17 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 26, 2019, 06:54:02 PM

Given that the cost of car ownership averages $8-10K per car, the economics of ride sharing aren't all that hard to work out--particularly if combined with a semi-decent public transit system and factoring not having to pay the driver of the car (which is why Lyft and Uber are so excited about autonomous vehicles). Unquestionably, ride sharing works better the more densely populated a region is--and better still if connected to quality public transit.

In San Francisco, Lyft and Uber have found that customers are quite willing to pay less to share a car with strangers headed in the same direction. Presumably that's not unique to San Francisco. That could lead to a sea-change in how people get from point a to point b, because it's not a big leap from sharing a car with strangers, to using (effective) mass transit.

That's speculative, of course, but I can say from personal experience, going to a single car for a family four has not been all that hard (we  live in a suburb, not the city), saves us a ton of money, and we still only put about 10K miles a year on it.

True. It also depends what sort of car you're willing to own... There's a reason I used my Ford Flex as the example instead of my wife's RX350. The cost of ownership of a luxury SUV is a lot higher than my station wagon :)

I do think it's changing. Again, density is important... From your description of being close to SFO and rail I would guess you're living somewhere like Burlingame? Density is a lot higher there than even if you're living in Santa Clara, and with the high cost of housing, a lot of Bay Area folks have been pushed out to places like Morgan Hill... Good luck without a car there!

Where we live, and with both my wife and I working, having one car would really stretch it. We don't have a semi-decent public transit system in Orange County. We basically have a non-existent public transit system. However, we work closely enough together that we usually carpool when we don't have the kids, so the added cost of rideshare for commute on the limited days we have to do it separately [and the fact that I can occasionally work from home] could certainly help. But then again, we like our cars. Heck, that's why we have 3, not two... I have the Jeep as my toy. 

So I understand that things are going that way, and might accelerate that way in the future. I just throw a little cold water on the idea that it's going to happen as quickly as people believe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2019, 02:05:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2019, 08:54:28 PM

uber and lyft will obviously find new competition that has found new efficiencies and ways to operate with less profit

it's not hard to imagine a time when owning a vehicle is much more expensive than  renting rides

think aircraft, flying commercial or renting a small plane is more economical than owning a plane and employing a pilot

I'm not sure aircraft is entirely a fair comparison, because of the insane acquisition cost and the limited usage model. Most people fly once or twice a year, if that. Most people drive almost daily. And the economics of ride-sharing don't scale quite as well, since even if you're doing something like an UberPool, you're not putting 150 people into a single vehicle, it's more like 2-4. 

Quote from: MarqHusker on April 26, 2019, 08:57:56 PM

We are nearing a point when uber and lyft will near to raise fares and I would argue not marginally.  They have much more pricing power and pressure now.

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 27, 2019, 12:13:27 PM

Lyft and Uber will fall in cost once they can fire their drivers with autonomous vehicles. Otherwise, they wouldn't be able to destroy the car ownership model, which is their end goal.

The problem with Uber and Lyft is that to be profitable as companies, they need to rely on network effects in combination with exclusion. That exclusion could be a driver network that is either/or, i.e. an Uber driver can't simultaneously be a Lyft driver. Or that exclusion could be in luring *SO* many more drivers to their own service to overwhelm riders with convenience and low pickup times.

But so many drivers are driving for Uber and Lyft simultaneously, and they have no differentiation in their service to create exclusion. If nearly every rideshare car on the road has both the Uber and Lyft app open, there's no advantage to using one or the other regarding convenience. I have both the Uber and Lyft apps on my phone, and generally if I want to hail a ride I'm picking by random [or if one of them has a promotion]. 

So they have to compete with riders on price, and compete with drivers on pay. So Uber and Lyft both get squeezed as the middlemen because a rider will choose the lower-cost option and the driver will choose the option which gives them higher pay.

This gets better with autonomous vehicles, of course, *IF* the services own their own fleets. That gives them exclusion via network effects, because the larger fleet will be more convenient, more efficient [less driving between one rider to another because there are more users], and keeps their cars from being simultaneously used by the competing service.

So that is why they want to move autonomous. Not just to fire their drivers, but to control the usage of their fleets such that the fleet isn't simultaneously driving for their competition. Granted, owning their own fleets will require INSANE capital, but it might just be worth it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2019, 02:56:18 PM

the entire premise on Uber and Lyft is there is very little capital and they don't OWN anything

I'm guessing another company will emerge

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2019, 09:56:42 PM

Right. But they can't seem to be profitable with that model. Compete on low fares to riders plus high pay to drivers, and it leaves little room for themselves.

Higher fares is suicide. They have no defensible technology moat. They need a breakthrough. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2019, 12:26:35 AM

like you said, driverless electric vehicles

just gotta pay for the vehicle, perhaps leasing or renting

I don't believe it will be uber or lyft

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2019, 12:52:42 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 28, 2019, 12:26:35 AM

like you said, driverless electric vehicles

just gotta pay for the vehicle, perhaps leasing or renting

I don't believe it will be uber or lyft

Correct...introducing the 2027 Tesla Bastage:

(https://i.imgur.com/ujxLSzA.jpg)
This self-driving beauty cannot crash, but instead becomes a ramp for the other vehicle that hits it.  Under the hood, it's powered by 69 AA batteries and can hold approximately one carry on-sized bag. Made for one driver/passenger, it seats 2 anorexic SE Asians comfortably.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2019, 10:12:03 AM

We all seem to agree that autocars and trucks are coming and will shake things up, it's less clear as to "when" of course.  I've been a passenger in a Cadillac CT6 with "Supercruise" and it was impressive on the freeways.  We likely will have "safety drivers" for some years after this gets rolling for real.

Manual transmissions are disappearing.  The higher end performance cars all fare better with automatics today.  Most of the Ferrari types only offer automatics (twin clutch usually because their gear changes are superfast).  It's interesting to hear one accelerate with a TCT, even a BMW or whatever, it's just a click, no pause.

Our GTI has a clutch and manual gear box because it's "fun", though not always so fun in creeping city traffic.  It's pretty easy to operate though.

Our condo is discussing adding charging stations.  We've had folks interested in purchasing but they own Teslas and that is critical for them.  The HOA owns four spaces, so my recco was to add charging stations for them and "charge" the customers who use them a fee.  There is a fairly nice but older condo building near us built in the 1950s that does not have parking, it's amazing how critical parking is around here, and obvious, duh.  We have two spots fortunately.  Some buildings charge $160 a month for each spot.  It's akin to Delta and baggage fees.

Speaking of which, we're boarding the Shiny Bird for France on Wednesday, so my presence to track ELA's meanderings will be spotty.  Perhaps someone else can assume the "responsibility", I do like seeing who is gone and who is left among the P5s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2019, 10:21:18 AM

hopefully, the Utes have come up by Wednesday!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2019, 02:55:07 PM

Two Utes?

What did you say?  Two what?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2019, 05:07:04 PM

Paiutes and Utes?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2019, 04:41:38 PM

Humid air is less dense than dry air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 29, 2019, 06:17:38 PM

That's interesting. I don't spend much time thinking about this. Let me toss an idea off you for fun: Is this due primarily to molecular mass - H2O being so much lighter than the diatomic oxygen and nitrogen it's displacing per unit volume?

Because I didn't have this (humid > dry) factoid, I had to wrestle with it for the last couple minutes. My original intuition was for the opposite on the basis of heat capacity. I figured that'd be a dominant factor. That, because humid air has a higher heat capacity, it may take more heat energy for it to rise to a specific temperature than the heat change necessary for dry air to rise to that same temperature. And therefore dry air would rise sooner than humid air as the humid air is delayed in reaching the same temperature (...which is directly related to those molecules occupying volume and inversely related to their density).

Clearly that's incorrect. Would enjoy seeing your explanation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2019, 06:31:56 PM

H2O weighs less than O2 and N2, you had it right at first.  A mole of gas takes up the same volume no matter what (ideally).

It's less of a factor than is temperature.  As a pilot, one has to watch temperature carefully if nearing close to the maximum takeoff weight.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2019, 06:44:47 PM

Well, when barometric pressure is falling [storms coming in], that correlates to rain/humidity/water in the air. When barometric pressure is high, that's nice clear sunny days. Right?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2019, 06:45:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2019, 06:31:56 PM

H2O weighs less than O2 and N2, you had it right at first.  A mole of gas takes up the same volume no matter what (ideally).

It's less of a factor than is temperature.  As a pilot, one has to watch temperature carefully if nearing close to the maximum takeoff weight.

Yep. Cold air is more dense than hot air. 

Which is odd, because most humans spewing lots of hot air are incredibly dense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2019, 06:50:42 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2019, 06:44:47 PM

Well, when barometric pressure is falling [storms coming in], that correlates to rain/humidity/water in the air. When barometric pressure is high, that's nice clear sunny days. Right?

Yup.  But the falling pressure usually is more a result of a low pressure system, which sounds circular I know.  Low pressure systems circulate air counterclockwise, think hurricanes, and high pressure the other way in the north.  There was a neat synopsis I still recall from the aviation written example:  The earth's weather is caused by differential heating of the surface by the sun", or something to that effect.  The rotation of the planet is another factor of course and leads to all this spinning.

The written test is odd because it is multiple choice with three possible answers given.  Usually one is ridiculous and two are kind of close, or spot on.

I ended up just memorizing the tougher questions, they give them to you ahead of the test, maybe 250 possible of which 60 appear on the test.  I missed one as I recall, no idea which.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2019, 07:02:58 PM

https://www.npr.org/2019/04/29/716347646/why-is-china-placing-a-global-bet-on-coal (https://www.npr.org/2019/04/29/716347646/why-is-china-placing-a-global-bet-on-coal)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2019, 08:27:08 PM

Hydrogen Cars Have 4× Annual Fuel Cost & 2–70× The Carbon Debt As Electric Vehicles

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/26/hydrogen-cars-have-4x-annual-fuel-cost-2-70-times-the-carbon-debt-as-electric-vehicles/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/26/hydrogen-cars-have-4x-annual-fuel-cost-2-70-times-the-carbon-debt-as-electric-vehicles/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 01:33:54 PM

Yeah, I'm not really clear on why anyone would prefer hydrogen cars. I've read that our extraction technologies seem beholden to natural gas (in terms of "mining" H2 fuel). That's less of a problem today, in comparisons with EVs, because much of our electricity comes from burning carbon sources anyway (though there is already a numeric difference). But it does mean that whereas EVs *can* become even cleaner as the electrical grid becomes cleaner, such progress for H2 is likely to lag behind. Also: H2 vehicles have similar cost, energy density, and driving range as current EVs. And since H2 energy density can't really change, whereas battery technology is advancing, here too EVs look to leave H2Vs behind.

Then there're social comparisons. If everyone is charging their cars at home, refilling at an H2 station will seem primitive. And ... even if it becomes maximally safe, riding on a mini-Zeppelin tank is always going to feel scarier than riding on an electric battery.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2019, 01:49:59 PM

Fuel cells offer better range than batteries, which is why we used them on spacecraft (along with some batteries as backup power).

Apollo 13 had an issue with this.

Producing hydrogen using electricity is somewhat akin to shipping electricity by wire and storing it chemically in a battery.

When automobiles started out, we had the IC engines, steam engines, and battery powered EVs.  The ICs won out because of cost and power density.  Nothing has supplanted them yet, and it's not for lack of trying.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 02:05:36 PM

(1) I may have misspoke about achievable energy density. What I really meant to communicate was this: Hydrogen cars post driving ranges comparable to EVs. The Tesla Model 3 and Model S can go 310 and 335 miles, respectively, whereas the H2-powered Toyota Mirai can go 312 miles. There are probably other good examples. I expect them to group in with these.

(2) ICs have been dominant, and you are right that there's been a lot of EV trying in the last century, but we've never so interested in that alternative as now. Public interest drives the market.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 30, 2019, 02:46:51 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 02:05:36 PM

(1) I may have misspoke about achievable energy density. What I really meant to communicate was this: Hydrogen cars post driving ranges comparable to EVs. The Tesla Model 3 and Model S can go 310 and 335 miles, respectively, whereas the H2-powered Toyota Mirai can go 312 miles. There are probably other good examples. I expect them to group in with these.

(2) ICs have been dominant, and you are right that there's been a lot of EV trying in the last century, but we've never so interested in that alternative as now. Public interest drives the market.

While Public interest has some drive in the market. Cost will continue to be the major driver and until the cost competes with the internal combustion engine nothing will dramatically change. Of course the government could screw things up, like they usually do, by making the internal combustion engine more expensive through taxes, fees, etc. and make EV cheaper by subsidies and tax breaks. All of which messes up the beautiful blind hand of Adam Smith (which I know many of you do think is beautiful or the way to go). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2019, 03:26:28 PM

I looked at a Chevy Bolt fairly closely, not really intending to buy, but pondering whether it was practicable or not.  It is roughly equivalent to a Chevy Cruze hatchback in size and options, and costs somewhere around $10,000 more, after the tax credit, if you get one.  It drives pretty well, good initial pickup of course.  Range is listed at 238 miles and I read that folks are exceeding that.  It takes a while to recharge, and a very long time to recoup costs versus the initial expense.

And apparently GM is losing $10,000 on each one they sell.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 03:45:21 PM

Riffraft: Cost is already cheaper for the buyer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/constancedouris/2017/10/24/the-bottom-line-on-electric-cars-theyre-cheaper-to-own/#16f3f2e110b6

Even moreso if you consider the 10-year cost of a vehicle. I can drive a Tesla from rural Indiana to family in San Diego and without paying a dime for "fuel," as long as I use the correct stations and the free charging offered for the model. Those charging stations are now 150 miles or less from 99% of the american population (usually less; often much less). And even without free charging, which I admit may not be a cost to me, but is a cost to someone, we're talking about a total less than $10 per 100 miles. And this is without mentioning the lower rates of wear and tear (a benefit for vehicles with fewer moving parts) or the rebates and incentives to reduce the sticker price ... which is already in the competitive $30K - $40K range for economy models.

We can still rail against driving range for EVs, but not cost. That's a war they have a clear path to winning.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2019, 03:58:23 PM

They are cheaper to own, but not nearly cheaper to buy, or even close, by any rational analysis.  And no new Tesla costs $40 K, they don't make those.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2019, 04:05:58 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 03:45:21 PM

Riffraft: Cost is already cheaper for the buyer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/constancedouris/2017/10/24/the-bottom-line-on-electric-cars-theyre-cheaper-to-own/#16f3f2e110b6

Even moreso if you consider the 10-year cost of a vehicle. I can drive a Tesla from rural Indiana to family in San Diego and without paying a dime for "fuel," as long as I use the correct stations and the free charging offered for the model. Those charging stations are now 150 miles or less from 99% of the american population (usually less; often much less). And even without free charging, which I admit may not be a cost to me, but is a cost to someone, we're talking about a total less than $10 per 100 miles. And this is without mentioning the lower rates of wear and tear (a benefit for vehicles with fewer moving parts) or the rebates and incentives to reduce the sticker price ... which is already in the competitive $30K - $40K range for economy models.

We can still rail against driving range for EVs, but not cost. That's a war they have a clear path to winning.

A $40K+ Tesla is IMHO not cheaper to own than a $24K Toyota Prius or a $15K Hyundai Elantra.

Sure, it might be cheaper to own than a 3-series BMW or an Audi A4, but those are luxury brands. They're out of reach of most of the population... Just like a Tesla.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2019, 04:15:36 PM

Regarding BEV vs Hydrogen fuel cell...

I'm not an expert on the economics of battery technology or production. But doesn't making a battery--even if the chemistry improves--involve huge costs to mine metals out of the ground? Can we do this at levels economically sustainable enough to have BEV take over the auto industry? Or will we reach a point where we can't improve battery price because we cannot extract the raw materials out of the ground at a price less than the cost of the battery itself, hence no profit? The idea is that once costs come down, demand increases exponentially--but not if supply can't increase as elastically as the demand needs it to.

I think the allure of hydrogen is that it's a plentiful, renewable resource. Turning it from the forms it exists in nature into the form that powers a fuel cell is hard, but we already know that if you supply enough electricity, you can make it easily from a VERY plentiful and renewable resource--water. It might just be that producing hydrogen in high quantities is a harder economic problem than mining metals for batteries. But at least logically, it has an easier path to scale than pulling metal out of the ground.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2019, 04:22:52 PM

The metals used in batteries are quite common on the planet, generally speaking.  I don't think there is an issue obtaining more lithium for example, some of the more exotic types like cobalt could be more of a challenge, geopolitically if nothing else.

https://smallcaps.com.au/which-metals-benefit-lithium-ion-battery-boom/ (https://smallcaps.com.au/which-metals-benefit-lithium-ion-battery-boom/)

I see it as something that needs work, but no more than is used to find more petroleum for example.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2019, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 30, 2019, 04:22:52 PM

The metals used in batteries are quite common on the planet, generally speaking.  I don't think there is an issue obtaining more lithium for example, some of the more exotic types like cobalt could be more of a challenge, geopolitically if nothing else.

https://smallcaps.com.au/which-metals-benefit-lithium-ion-battery-boom/ (https://smallcaps.com.au/which-metals-benefit-lithium-ion-battery-boom/)

I see it as something that needs work, but no more than is used to find more petroleum for example.

Ahh, good to know. As I said, I don't really know the economics of lithium mining... 

If it scales easily, that is huge for BEV. Then it's becomes a question more of the ability to improve battery chemistry to achieve price points where there's a product "good enough" at a price point "good enough" to overtake ICE.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 05:20:04 PM

bwarbs: At $40K+, you seem to be thinking more about the Tesla Models S and X. I was moreso thinking of the $35K Model 3. It's often compared to the BMW M3 in comfort and performance, but the sticker price is that of a $30K-$40X run of the mill car.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2019, 05:30:50 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 05:20:04 PM

bwarbs: At $40K+, you seem to be thinking more about the Tesla Models S and X. I was moreso thinking of the $35K Model 3. It's often compared to the BMW M3 in comfort and performance, but the sticker price is that of a $30K-$40X run of the mill car.

Model S starts at $78K. Model X starts at 83K. Not talking about those. Those are FAR higher up the ladder.

The cheapest Model 3 that you can buy online is $39.5K. That's the 240 mile range, not the 300+ range model. It's true that it's decently fast for the price (5.3s 0-60), but I think beyond that it doesn't really compare to an M3. It's more comparable to a 3-series or A4 than an M3 or S4. 

Either way, it's irrelevant. Tesla might not be around 3 months from now. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2019, 05:35:14 PM

Correction... I just looked it up. A 328i does 0-60 in about 5.2 seconds, pretty close to that of the $39.5K Model 3. A BMW M3 does it in about 4 seconds or slightly better. So to get equivalent performance out of a Tesla, you'd have to either buy the dual-motor Model 3 (4.5s) at $50K, or the performance Model 3 (3.2s) at $60K. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 30, 2019, 05:50:01 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 30, 2019, 03:45:21 PM

Riffraft: Cost is already cheaper for the buyer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/constancedouris/2017/10/24/the-bottom-line-on-electric-cars-theyre-cheaper-to-own/#16f3f2e110b6

Even moreso if you consider the 10-year cost of a vehicle. I can drive a Tesla from rural Indiana to family in San Diego and without paying a dime for "fuel," as long as I use the correct stations and the free charging offered for the model. Those charging stations are now 150 miles or less from 99% of the american population (usually less; often much less). And even without free charging, which I admit may not be a cost to me, but is a cost to someone, we're talking about a total less than $10 per 100 miles. And this is without mentioning the lower rates of wear and tear (a benefit for vehicles with fewer moving parts) or the rebates and incentives to reduce the sticker price ... which is already in the competitive $30K - $40K range for economy models.

We can still rail against driving range for EVs, but not cost. That's a war they have a clear path to winning.

It is the same argument for solar energy. Yes the operation costs are cheaper but the upfront cost are way more expense and the breakeven point is well down the road (the wording was intentional)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 30, 2019, 10:21:58 PM

Regarding battery costs, they've been declining for awhile and are projected to continue to. There is some risk with the rare minerals (not lithium), but my expectation is that the energy density will continue to increase enough and/or some company will develop a battery chemistry that avoids the issue altogether sometime soon.

As for the cost of solar, all the cost is basically up front, but LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) accounts for that, and new solar has been beating out existing coal plants (ie. just their operational costs), and based on the volatility of the natural gas market, most utilities are investing more in solar and wind than natural gas. Obviously it's not to the point that gas plants are being retired prematurely yet, but the combination of renewables & energy storage is on its way to killing the market for new natural gas plants like gas did to coal 10-20 years ago. That's a big part of the reason GE is in big trouble right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on May 01, 2019, 12:30:41 AM

Riffraft: the Model 3 is basically the same sticker price as a Buick or Honda Civic. And the Model 3 is not the cheapest available electric.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2019, 08:05:13 AM

I don't think one can buy a Model 3 today for less than $45,000, which is more than a Honda Civic R costs, and the R is the top of the line performance minded Civic.

The real price of the Tesla is probably closer to $55 K.  If they could make and sell them for the promised $35 K price for real, they'd be able to sell them like hotcakes, in effect, while losing a lot more money.  The Chevy Bolt sells for closer to $35 K and isn't the same kind of vehicle obviously.

There is an "early adopter" characteristic in the buying public that "we" faced often back in the day when I was working.  You come out with a cool sounding new product and initial sales are great and then .... you run into a wall.  Quite a few consumers are "tradition oriented" and not sure about the latest and greatest.  This is less true for the younger crowd, but they are less able to spend $50 K on a car.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on May 01, 2019, 11:09:26 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2019, 08:05:13 AM

I don't think one can buy a Model 3 today for less than $45,000, which is more than a Honda Civic R costs, and the R is the top of the line performance minded Civic.

The real price of the Tesla is probably closer to $55 K.  If they could make and sell them for the promised $35 K price for real, they'd be able to sell them like hotcakes, in effect, while losing a lot more money.  The Chevy Bolt sells for closer to $35 K and isn't the same kind of vehicle obviously.

There is an "early adopter" characteristic in the buying public that "we" faced often back in the day when I was working.  You come out with a cool sounding new product and initial sales are great and then .... you run into a wall.  Quite a few consumers are "tradition oriented" and not sure about the latest and greatest.  This is less true for the younger crowd, but they are less able to spend $50 K on a car.

I doubt if any of my kids have spent more than $10K on a car. I know they most I have ever spent on a car was $25K. I am quite confident that my total cost when my current car is retired will be less than a Model 3, particularly when you consider the time value of money. I may be wrong in my assumption since I haven't actually done the math, but my "accountant" intuition makes me pretty sure. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on May 01, 2019, 11:59:47 AM

My point was that some EVs already exist in the $30-40K range and this is a common range for the new car buying public. It's not $5-20K but "competitively priced" means different things to different people. That EV technology is falling into the $30-40K range is already capturing a serious chunk of the "competitively priced"-minded people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2019, 12:27:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2019, 08:05:13 AM

I don't think one can buy a Model 3 today for less than $45,000, which is more than a Honda Civic R costs, and the R is the top of the line performance minded Civic.

The real price of the Tesla is probably closer to $55 K.  If they could make and sell them for the promised $35 K price for real, they'd be able to sell them like hotcakes, in effect, while losing a lot more money.  The Chevy Bolt sells for closer to $35 K and isn't the same kind of vehicle obviously.

The lowest-price Tesla today* is the Standard Range Plus w/ AutoPilot, which is $39.5K plus $1200 delivery & fees. That's in black with base wheels and interior, with zero options (including paying for the full self driving** computer, which would be another $5K). 

Now, to be fair, you deduct $3750+ based on where you live for the Federal EV credit, plus anything you get from state ($6250 total here in Fed+CA rebates). That's assuming here in CA that you don't exceed the income restrictions to be eligible. I'd say most Model 3 buyers probably don't, but that most Model S or Model X buyers exceed the income requirements to be able to afford a car that expensive.

So in reality, that would bring the price of a base Model 3 down to about $35K after rebates here in CA. Still an expensive vehicle, especially without any of the options including the ability to choose color and have non-ugly wheels, but not $45K.

 * Supposedly the $35K model exists. But you can't buy it on their website, only if you call and order by phone. And from what I've been reading, if you try to order by phone, they aggressively try to upsell you to other models.

 ** Not true full self driving. Their definition of FSD is not true level 5 autonomy. 

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on May 01, 2019, 11:59:47 AM

My point was that some EVs already exist in the $30-40K range and this is a common range for the new car buying public. It's not $5-20K but "competitively priced" means different things to different people. That EV technology is falling into the $30-40K range is already capturing a serious chunk of the "competitively priced"-minded people.

My point is that what you get in the $30-40K range from other vendors is a lot more than you get from a Tesla in that range. A BMW or Audi will be a lot more luxurious. To get a Honda Civic Sedan, the absolute top model starts at $27K (and you can usually talk a dealer down--try doing that with Tesla). 

And a more important point isn't just price... It's that the company can be profitable and around in another quarter selling cars at that price. Tesla tries not to let you buy the supposedly-existing $35K Model 3 because they can't make money on it. Their overall margins are getting squeezed and they lost $700M last quarter. Based on what I'm reading, they may be weeks to months away from being unable to meet payroll if they don't get a capital raise. Their behavior is of a company that's seriously cash-strapped and desperate for ANYTHING they can get to get a few dollars in the door.

At this point, there are some pure BEVs that are at the upper end of that $30-40K range, and it's unclear whether they can be sold profitably or whether they exist primarily to help automakers stay within CAFE standards. But you're right, they do exist.

But that doesn't mean they're equivalent to the other cars in those price ranges. The bargain-basement versions are under $40K. If you want a car as well-appointed as that Civic Touring, you're going to be spending well over $40K. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 01, 2019, 01:55:12 PM

I don't know if it's changed since late December, but at that time, Tesla's "low-cost" model 3 wasn't available. The cheapest Model 3 one could buy was approximately $60K, minus rebates. Not close to the same cost as a Civic. I was in the market and I looked hard. I just couldn't justify buying one at that cost.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2019, 02:10:41 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 01, 2019, 01:55:12 PM

I don't know if it's changed since late December, but at that time, Tesla's "low-cost" model 3 wasn't available. The cheapest Model 3 one could buy was approximately $60K, minus rebates. Not close to the same cost as a Civic. I was in the market and I looked hard. I just couldn't justify buying one at that cost.

Well with Tesla, it seems that what's available and what it costs has changed back and forth a lot over the last quarter or so.

I've gotten sucked into this GD soap opera of a company, and it's just crazy. It signifies to me that they have a demand problem, and they're cutting costs and trying to offer the lower-cost versions to try to help with the demand problem. But I really just got sucked into reading about them over the last two months, so I can't speak to what was available in December.

But I'm pretty sure without a capital raise SOON, they're headed for a bankruptcy filing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 01, 2019, 02:26:31 PM

It will be a sad day when there are no more of these to drive.

Shelby Cobra vs. Shelby GT500 vs. C63 AMG vs. Viper SRT-10 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Rg4njkqKo)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2019, 02:42:56 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 01, 2019, 02:26:31 PM

It will be a sad day when there are no more of these to drive.

Shelby Cobra vs. Shelby GT500 vs. C63 AMG vs. Viper SRT-10 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Rg4njkqKo)

The Cobra has been my dream car since the first day I saw one--and not even the car, just a poster of one.

I still don't know if I'll actually fit into one of them, but I'd consider sawing my feet off if I need to in order to fit lol!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2019, 03:48:49 AM

France is cold and dreary and I'm tired.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2019, 10:34:58 AM

Yup, sounds like France in Spring-time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2019, 03:29:33 PM

Shocking, Tesla announces filings for a $2B capital raise... I guess I was right. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2019, 10:30:23 PM

Musk talks a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 03, 2019, 10:56:20 PM

Hyundai To Deliver 1,600 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks In Europe?

https://insideevs.com/news/346862/hyundai-1600-hydrogen-trucks-europe/amp/ (https://insideevs.com/news/346862/hyundai-1600-hydrogen-trucks-europe/amp/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2019, 11:03:23 PM

Traffic from the airport down here was bad, a lot of trucks out.  And of course a lot of scooters around Paris that emit a lot of pollution.  At least most of the electricity is nuclear generated.  Germany is going the wrong way on co2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 04, 2019, 11:55:18 AM

Have you swung by Notre Dame Cathedral?Was all that priceless art saved?And is you wife originally from that area?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2019, 03:14:07 PM

Wife is from Paris, and a tiny town outside Paris.  Saw ND off in the distance from car.  having hard frost tonight.  Staying in Fontainebleau.  For now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 06, 2019, 05:02:40 PM

Has anyone looked into stuff like this?

http://climatechange.medill.northwestern.edu/2016/11/29/artificial-trees-might-be-needed-to-offset-carbon-dioxide-emissions/ (http://climatechange.medill.northwestern.edu/2016/11/29/artificial-trees-might-be-needed-to-offset-carbon-dioxide-emissions/)

I've been long thinking about the idea... One solution to climate change is simply not burning fossil fuels. I don't see that as meaningfully realistic in the near future.

The other, of course, is to find ways to more aggressively scrub CO2 from the air... I just had never heard of any real way to do it. 

Anything think this has merit? (I realize the article is from late 2016, so obviously this hasn't gone very far.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2019, 06:20:11 PM

Tesla Model 3 Cheaper Than Honda Accord — 15 Cost Comparisons


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 06, 2019, 07:31:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 06, 2019, 06:20:11 PM

Tesla Model 3 Cheaper Than Honda Accord — 15 Cost Comparisons


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/)

If only one could actually buy a Model 3 for $39,500. Unless things have changed in the last five months--and maybe they have--this car doesn't exist.

And this assumes you sell the car and reclaim its then-current value. So this is a kind of balance sheet cost, but not actual cost of ownership.

Basically, these charts show that over the course of 10,000 miles, the electric car is $400 cheaper than the hybrid. Which is nice, but it doesn't show that this Model 3 (again, if it exists) is cheaper than an Accord (or Camry).

AND, the Model 3 is a significantly smaller car (passenger compartment and trunk space), so there's the utility aspect that is also missing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2019, 07:35:17 PM

it's part of the hype

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 06, 2019, 09:19:48 PM

I've heard of other carbon capture technologies, but not those artificial "trees." Supposedly, there are about 3 trillion trees in the world and if 1.2T were grown (apparently all of which can be done within existing forests), that would capture a decade's worth of emissions*, but this sounds much more promising. As the article mentions, though, there has to be a sufficient carbon tax / price in place to make it cost-effective. There are definitely products out there that can be developed from the captured CO2, though.

*https://e360.yale.edu/digest/planting-1-2-trillion-trees-could-cancel-out-a-decade-of-co2-emissions-scientists-find (https://e360.yale.edu/digest/planting-1-2-trillion-trees-could-cancel-out-a-decade-of-co2-emissions-scientists-find)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 06, 2019, 11:01:49 PM

Plant another trillion trees.  That would have many benefits in addition to capturing carbon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 07, 2019, 08:21:17 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 06, 2019, 11:01:49 PM

Plant another trillion trees.  That would have many benefits in addition to capturing carbon.

Yup. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 07, 2019, 09:20:59 AM

Yeah, but by then, do to increasing temperatures, the permafrost will have thawed and THAT'S some next-level CO2 emissions right there!  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2019, 10:38:11 AM

plant a trillion trees in the thawed permafrost

and another trillion in west Texas would be nice

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2019, 11:55:52 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 06, 2019, 06:20:11 PM

Tesla Model 3 Cheaper Than Honda Accord — 15 Cost Comparisons

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/)

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 06, 2019, 07:31:10 PM

If only one could actually buy a Model 3 for $39,500. Unless things have changed in the last five months--and maybe they have--this car doesn't exist.

And this assumes you sell the car and reclaim its then-current value. So this is a kind of balance sheet cost, but not actual cost of ownership.

Basically, these charts show that over the course of 10,000 miles, the electric car is $400 cheaper than the hybrid. Which is nice, but it doesn't show that this Model 3 (again, if it exists) is cheaper than an Accord (or Camry).

AND, the Model 3 is a significantly smaller car (passenger compartment and trunk space), so there's the utility aspect that is also missing.

@SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) You can now do so. The Standard Range Plus is available on the web site for $39,500. Apparently the actual $35K Model 3 Standard Range exists, but you have to call Tesla to order it. I understand they try to upsell people [probably because they can't make money on it], but they're so hurting for sales right now that from what I read online, they WILL allow you to order it and deliver a car. 

Also, it's not just a comparison of the hybrid. If you click through to the spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i8AsZR9nc_psCd7P4gHK3rBadkCEPhRg-lCJlYebx-o/edit#gid=1712975981), it has comparisons for a lot of cars, both hybrid and non-hybrid. You can also download the spreadsheet and change certain assumptions (as I assume would be warranted for people like us in CA where both electricity AND gas is significantly more expensive than national rates--and where it's possible to qualify for an additional $2.5K state rebate subject to certain income eligibility restrictions). 

@FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) I do agree with SFBadge about the assumption that you sell the car. It's not a measurement of "how much did I pay over a 5 year period", it's "how much was the net"? And as such it has to make assumptions about the 5-year resale value of a vehicle that has been shipping in volume for less than a year, has apparently had build quality problems and high repair costs, and there is a serious question right now of what the future long-term demand for the car will be. 

I realize that a lot of people don't want to keep a car longer than 5 years / 67.5K miles. And so there is a certain value to using the resale, as at the end of 5 years of ownership, the Tesla owner will have a [projected] $20K asset to trade in on their next car while the Honda owner will have a [projected] $10K asset. But I do think that it's a way to make the Tesla look better than it might actually be, especially for a car company that touts its design as being designed to achieve a million miles on the road. 

Beyond that, I have a few issues with some of their assumptions, as well as a few things they now leave out (Tesla charging a $1200 delivery/doc fee). Also that I think the base black Tesla with the black "Aero" wheels is hideous, and if you want paint colors and wheels that don't suck, you're out $2500-3500 more. But then, I know the other manufacturers sometimes upsell on paint colors and wheels, even if their default selections aren't so hideous. And of course the cost of the Tesla is firm, whereas most buyers will haggle at another dealer to get cost lower than MSRP.

But they do allow for you to download the spreadsheet and make your own assumptions. I.e. to spec out the model you'd ACTUALLY want, over the years/mileage you'd actually own it, etc. So if you [like me] would want to price it out based on 8-10 years of ownership and 100K+ miles, it at least gives a starting framework for comparison. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2019, 11:56:46 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 06, 2019, 11:01:49 PM

Plant another trillion trees.  That would have many benefits in addition to capturing carbon.

I do wonder why we don't see large-scale efforts to do this. Where's the modern-day Johnny Appleseed?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on May 07, 2019, 12:47:40 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 30, 2019, 05:30:50 PM

Model S starts at $78K. Model X starts at 83K. Not talking about those. Those are FAR higher up the ladder.

The cheapest Model 3 that you can buy online is $39.5K. That's the 240 mile range, not the 300+ range model. It's true that it's decently fast for the price (5.3s 0-60), but I think beyond that it doesn't really compare to an M3. It's more comparable to a 3-series or A4 than an M3 or S4.

Either way, it's irrelevant. Tesla might not be around 3 months from now.

Yeah, and the Model 3 crushes all of it's competitors like the BM 3, MB C, and Audi A4 in sales. By a lot. The BMW M3 is 70k. The performance version of the Model 3 is in that same ball park price range as the M3 and it whips the M3 in performance/testing #'s.

Tesla is a luxury brand. They only make 3 models and two of their models- the 3 and the S- absolutely dominate the competition in sales. The Model S far outsells the BMW 7, Audi A8, or MB S Class, and the Model 3 far outsells the BMW 3/4, Audi A4, or MB C-Class. Tesla Model 3's are 39.5k just like the MB C-Class is 41k or the BMW 3 Series is 40k. By the time you add any options, those MB C-class and BMW 3 series are 50k+. Same thing with the Tesla. The 35k luxury EV is a pipe dream. Great marketing ploy for a company that spends $0 on advertising. They'd need to cheapen the F out of the car to sell it for $35k.

I think that's a pretty big exaggeration to say that Tesla won't be around in 3 months from now. This is a company that went from $200 million in revenue in 2011 to $22 billion in revenue in 2018, and they've been in far greater trouble many times in the past than they are right now and pulled through every single time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2019, 12:49:50 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 06, 2019, 06:20:11 PM

Tesla Model 3 Cheaper Than Honda Accord — 15 Cost Comparisons


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/)

I do want to highlight one additional thing.  This in no way invalidates the analysis of what is cheaper for a consumer, but the fact that Honda is able to produce these products, earn a profit, and not rely on taxpayer giveaways to the consumer, certainly puts them in a different place than Tesla. Part of this analysis relies on a federal subsidy that will halve in another 7 weeks, and go away entirely by the end of the year. And it's on a car that appears to be deeply unprofitable for Tesla, which is a company that's losing money like crazy. 

I'd say the "resale value" should be discounted for a company that had to raise money at high cost just to keep the lights on another six months, as there is an existential risk for the company that just told investors cars aren't their main business; it's all robotaxis (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4260264-tesla-elon-musk-moves-goal-posts). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2019, 01:23:02 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on May 07, 2019, 12:47:40 PM

Yeah, and the Model 3 crushes all of it's competitors like the BM 3, MB C, and Audi A4 in sales. By a lot. The BMW M3 is 70k. The performance version of the Model 3 is in that same ball park price range as the M3 and it whips the M3 in performance/testing #'s.

Tesla is a luxury brand. They only make 3 models and two of their models- the 3 and the S- absolutely dominate the competition in sales. The Model S far outsells the BMW 7, Audi A8, or MB S Class, and the Model 3 far outsells the BMW 3/4, Audi A4, or MB C-Class. Tesla Model 3's are 39.5k just like the MB C-Class is 41k or the BMW 3 Series is 40k. By the time you add any options, those MB C-class and BMW 3 series are 50k+. Same thing with the Tesla. The 35k luxury EV is a pipe dream. Great marketing ploy for a company that spends $0 on advertising. They'd need to cheapen the F out of the car to sell it for $35k.

I think that's a pretty big exaggeration to say that Tesla won't be around in 3 months from now. This is a company that went from $200 million in revenue in 2011 to $22 billion in revenue in 2018, and they've been in far greater trouble many times in the past than they are right now and pulled through every single time.

Tesla in Q1 saw their deliveries drop like a rock, despite opening up Model 3 shipments to Europe and China. Including those Model S and X cars (the high margin ones) which dropped to half their normal quarterly run rate. They lost $700M last quarter, which would have been $900M if not for sales of GHG emissions credits they've been sitting on.

They may be great vehicles... I get that they have acceleration numbers that are pretty damn good. And yes, they're a luxury brand. But the message from Elon [at least before last week] was that getting the ability to profitably make the Model 3 SR a mass-market car was the funding engine that would push them into everything else. Well, it's not. They were barely profitable in Q3 and Q4 last year [a lot of it also came from ZEV credit sales], and everything fell off a cliff in Q1 right around the time they actually opened up orders the 39.5K Model 3.

They might be able to make a profit with the high-margin Model 3 (long range and performance versions), but they exhausted their order book for the profitable cars in Q3 and Q4, and can't seem to make profit with a $39.5K Model 3.

And this is what I said on May 1:

Quote

But I'm pretty sure without a capital raise SOON, they're headed for a bankruptcy filing.

On May 2, they announced a capital raise. It was only $2.7B (they only expect to net $2.3B in proceeds due to the actions they had to take to make this raise viable). That's enough for maybe 6 months unless they get their financial house in order. 

If they can magically turn profitable, then it's fine. But given the hole they dug in Q1, and the fact that Q2 isn't projected to be profitable, Elon Musk will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat in order for this relatively modest capital raise. Because even his promises (Model Y and robotaxis) aren't likely to materialize until mid-2020 at best.

We'll see, though. Supposedly they're still guiding for 90-100K deliveries this quarter. If they manage to hit that, it suggests that Q1 was a blip. If they manage to be at least CLOSE to profitability, even if they end up with a loss, it suggests that Q1 was a blip. 

But as I said, I've been getting into this soap opera, and it's a company that seems to be ever desperate in their actions to try to stay afloat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 08:21:15 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 07, 2019, 10:38:11 AM

plant a trillion trees in the thawed permafrost

and another trillion in west Texas would be nice

If by "plant another trillion trees in West Texas" you mean "plant another trillion saguaro cactus in West Texas" then I'm totally on board. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2019, 09:54:12 AM

not sure if cactus help as much as trees, but every little bit is good

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 10:20:20 AM

Most trees would have a pretty tough time surviving in most of West Texas.  

My dad is from Alpine, which is beautiful in its own way, but not much for being heavily forested... 

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/07/Alpine%2C_Texas_from_atop_Hancock_Hill.JPG/1280px-Alpine%2C_Texas_from_atop_Hancock_Hill.JPG)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2019, 10:21:52 AM

just need a little water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 10:40:29 AM

I love West Texas, I think it's beautiful.  But it definitely needs more than just a LITTLE water! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2019, 10:46:51 AM

There are trees out there in Alpine, though.  They are visible in the pic.

Mesquite trees, IIRC from my days in the 6th Cav Brigade at Fort Hood.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 10:49:35 AM

Yeah, there are some trees.  Mostly scrub cedar (actually juniper), plus some trees that are planted in people's yards, watered heavily, and receive well above average rainfall amounts to survive.

But look in the foreground of that picture-- that's what grows natively.  That's what the actual rainfall can support.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2019, 11:06:44 AM

I gotcha.

I have a memory of refueling at a field site near Menard, flying home from that area.  Seems like there were mesquite trees all around us.  But Menard is farther east, of course, about halfway to Fort Hood.  Maybe they get enough rain there for mesquite to grow naturally.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 11:57:55 AM

That area's certainly not as arid as further west, but it's not like any part of Texas west of about I35 gets a ton of rain.  Even Austin is pretty dry compared to districts further east, and south.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2019, 01:07:45 PM

No, Menard certainly wasn't "green country."

I can also remember its smell.  I think there were sheep ranches close by.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2019, 01:26:14 PM

I remember driving across Texas. I was able to tell that I was getting out of the desert when I started seeing that the things I drove over that were labeled "river" actually started having water in them... 

But yeah, I think reforestation is a damn good idea. It's not "the solution", of course, but it might be a contributing part of the solution. 

Maybe if we'd stop with all this "organic" farming we could reclaim some of that land for forests.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2019, 01:55:25 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 07, 2019, 11:56:46 AM

I do wonder why we don't see large-scale efforts to do this. Where's the modern-day Johnny Appleseed?

He got deported by ICE.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2019, 01:58:25 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 10, 2019, 01:26:14 PM

I remember driving across Texas. I was able to tell that I was getting out of the desert when I started seeing that the things I drove over that were labeled "river" actually started having water in them...

But yeah, I think reforestation is a damn good idea. It's not "the solution", of course, but it might be a contributing part of the solution.

Maybe if we'd stop with all this "organic" farming we could reclaim some of that land for forests.

It's all about beef.  If this new faux meat burger works, that could be a game-changer.  No more shrinking Amazon, no more cattle-rustling, period.  Hey, people could even stop drinking the milk of other animals and we can let cows resort back to being a wild species!!!


The amount of water and feed cattle take is obnoxious, and it could all be over soon.  Of course then, to get some "real" meat, it could be like in Demolition Man, and you're served a rat burger.  Terrible movie with some interesting talking points about the future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2019, 02:41:32 PM

never saw Demolition Man, but hopefully I'm old enough to die before I eat much beef that's really not beef

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 02:57:33 PM

Demolition Man wasn't a terrible movie, it was AWESOME!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2019, 03:44:21 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2019, 01:58:25 PM

It's all about beef.  If this new faux meat burger works, that could be a game-changer.  No more shrinking Amazon, no more cattle-rustling, period.  Hey, people could even stop drinking the milk of other animals and we can let cows resort back to being a wild species!!!


The amount of water and feed cattle take is obnoxious, and it could all be over soon.  Of course then, to get some "real" meat, it could be like in Demolition Man, and you're served a rat burger.  Terrible movie with some interesting talking points about the future.

I haven't tried the faux beef yet, but despite being a hardcore meat-eater, I'm not opposed to the idea for some of the "ground meat" applications. I'm sure it'd be fine in a taco.

But until they can replicate the actual grain of muscle and the intramuscular fat that you get in the real think, it's not going replace steak.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 10, 2019, 03:57:13 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 10, 2019, 10:46:51 AM

...from my days in the 6th Cav Brigade at Fort Hood.

Huh, my unit in Korea was OPCONed to 6th Cav. Wartime we would shift back to 8th Army (or one of the Corps), but day-to-day, our Brigade Commander was 6th Cav at Camp Humphreys. I don't think those aviators had any idea what to do with a bunch of duck hunters, but the 6th Cav unit insignia looks cooler than the 8th Army's--and I already had occasion to wear my grandfather's 8th Army patch on my Class As before we made the change. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2019, 03:57:26 PM

Oh, it was awesome when you were 12.  I never figured out the 3 shells thing in the bathroom.  Taco Bell winning the "fast food wars" was funny.  There are some parallels between current SJWs and how everyone in that future is a pansy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 04:11:11 PM

I was 21 and in college when Demolition Man came out, and I thought it was plenty awesome even then!

The three shells are a metaphor.

And Taco Bell was the only restaurant to survive the Franchise Wars... now all restaurants are Taco Bell.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 04:21:28 PM

I actually wrote a short story in 8th grade (long before Demolition Man came out) that touched on something similar. 

This was the height of the Reagan-era Cold War, mind you, so everyone was thinking geographically.  Eastern Bloc.  Soviet Bloc, etc.

But I thought it might be interesting to explore a dystopic future where geography and nationality were shoved to the back, behind corporatism.  At the time, the Soviet Union wasn't allowing McDonald's or Coca Cola into their borders, because those were too symbolic of the USA's power in the West.  They did however allow Pepsi in.  And perhaps some other group of food franchises, like KFC or something?

Regardless, I took that reality as my inspiration and I broke the world into the McCoke Bloc, and the Pepsi Bloc.  They still roughly aligned to the East and the West, but since Pepsi originated in the USA, they held some power and influence within the McCoke Bloc.  And the McCoke Bloc had made some trades and corporate buyouts, to obtain some influence within the Pepsi Bloc.  There was a lot more to it than that, but that's the basic premise, so years later when I heard that line in Demolition Man, I couldn't help but smile and think that somehow, they stole my idea. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2019, 05:36:26 PM

Rather wet and chilly here in southern Brittany.  Which is not unusual for here.  May go sailing tomorrow.

The wind is up at the moment.  Near a town called Tregunc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2019, 07:36:19 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 10, 2019, 03:57:13 PM

Huh, my unit in Korea was OPCONed to 6th Cav. Wartime we would shift back to 8th Army (or one of the Corps), but day-to-day, our Brigade Commander was 6th Cav at Camp Humphreys. I don't think those aviators had any idea what to do with a bunch of duck hunters, but the 6th Cav unit insignia looks cooler than the 8th Army's--and I already had occasion to wear my grandfather's 8th Army patch on my Class As before we made the change.

I think that, long ago and far away, we discussed your association with 6th Cav Bde in Korea, and airspace management/deconfliction issues.
When I was with 6th Cav Bde, 1988-91, it was III Corps' aviation brigade.  Now there doesn't seem to be an aviation brigade assigned to III Corps, and 6th Cav Bde doesn't seem to exist.  Same thing seems to be the case with XVIII Airborne Corps.  In 1992-93, I was in its 18th Aviation Brigade.  Now that's gone too.
I'm wondering if the concept of corps aviation brigades has been dropped.
6th Cav Bde indeed has a cooler shoulder patch than 8th Army.  I was assigned to 8th Army when I was in Korea ('87-88), so I know the patch well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2019, 09:43:01 AM

Levees. Those damn levees.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-endangered-mississippi-river-illinois-missouri-20190510-story.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on May 17, 2019, 09:55:50 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK8a8fykNcs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK8a8fykNcs)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2019, 02:18:07 PM

You know, I was really hoping that TSLA would be the perfect soap opera I needed between the end of NCAABB and the return of CFB.

At this rate I'm worried the implosion won't go beyond mid-July. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2019, 12:54:48 PM

Counter-intuitive climate change solution
Profitable approach to cleaning the air

Date:

May 20, 2019

Source:

Stanford University

Summary:

A seemingly counterintuitive approach -- converting one greenhouse gas into another -- holds promise for returning the atmosphere to pre-industrial concentrations of methane, a powerful driver of global warming.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190520115740.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190520115740.htm)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2019, 12:59:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 21, 2019, 12:54:48 PM

Counter-intuitive climate change solution
Profitable approach to cleaning the air

Date:

May 20, 2019

Source:

Stanford University

Summary:

A seemingly counterintuitive approach -- converting one greenhouse gas into another -- holds promise for returning the atmosphere to pre-industrial concentrations of methane, a powerful driver of global warming.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190520115740.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190520115740.htm)

Heh!

The resulting carbon dioxide will be all the better for those trillions of trees we are going to plant.

We've had two days of severe weather, including tornadoes, in Oklahoma.  I don't know of any deaths, but there has definitely been damage--buildings destroyed and trees blown down.

And flooding.  We've had a very rainy spring, so the soil is saturated.  There's no place for the water to go except run off the high places into the low places.  Area lakes are 25 feet or more above their normal levels.

P.S. Could the methane trapped in a zeolite array be used as fuel, rather than just heated to release the CO2?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2019, 03:14:18 PM

Zeolite is not very weight efficient.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 27, 2019, 10:17:37 AM

Why the end of the road might be near for Tesla. (https://start.att.net/player/category/finance/article/fortune-why_the_end_of_the_road_might_be_near_for_tesla-vtime)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 27, 2019, 10:38:49 AM

Well if they do belly up I hope their customers are well off.Because the cost of replacement parts will be astronomical

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2019, 11:15:58 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 27, 2019, 10:17:37 AM

Why the end of the road might be near for Tesla. (https://start.att.net/player/category/finance/article/fortune-why_the_end_of_the_road_might_be_near_for_tesla-vtime)

I hate videos. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 27, 2019, 03:10:19 PM

In the past 2 weeks in Phoenix, it's been cloudy and in the 70s much more often than in the 90s, and that's freakin' weird.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 27, 2019, 03:16:43 PM

It's been a cold winter and into spring.Since the middle of April maybe 6 days into the 60s-70s.Today is perfect 65 and sunny - I'll take it - all summer

:cool2:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: mcwterps1 on May 27, 2019, 04:10:42 PM

(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/61221330_10216480798350144_5555306993536729088_o.jpg?_nc_cat=106&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=7467497cc477e52946a38697cb8dd1a1&oe=5D5F058E)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 27, 2019, 04:18:35 PM

Is that a photo shop? - if not I'll take 53 and cloudy with winds out of the north

>:(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2019, 06:26:59 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 27, 2019, 10:17:37 AM

Why the end of the road might be near for Tesla. (https://start.att.net/player/category/finance/article/fortune-why_the_end_of_the_road_might_be_near_for_tesla-vtime)

I think they can still raise cash in POs and for debt, but it's getting dicier.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2019, 10:11:40 AM

Been unseasonably cold and rainy all spring here in SoCal.

Went for a hike with the wife on Saturday morning and saw a rattlesnake. First one I've ever seen. I thought it was too early in the season but apparently the superbloom is causing them to be much more prevalent this year. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2019, 10:12:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 27, 2019, 06:26:59 PM

I think they can still raise cash in POs and for debt, but it's getting dicier.

Q2 numbers for Tesla are critical. Hitting guidance will be huge. Missing guidance could be the end. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 28, 2019, 10:14:29 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 28, 2019, 10:11:40 AM

Been unseasonably cold and rainy all spring here in SoCal.

Went for a hike with the wife on Saturday morning and saw a rattlesnake. First one I've ever seen. I thought it was too early in the season but apparently the superbloom is causing them to be much more prevalent this year.

I have a stepson living in L.A.  He says they are having lows in the 40s, threatening all-time records.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2019, 11:43:33 AM

I'm guessing Tesla is not close to the End, meaning, not in a year or more.

What happens when everyone comes out with new EVs is a question.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2019, 12:28:27 PM

hopefully, when everyone comes out with new EV's gasoline prices plummet and I can drive my 4x4 truck on the cheap!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2019, 12:30:43 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 28, 2019, 10:14:29 AM

I have a stepson living in L.A.  He says they are having lows in the 40s, threatening all-time records.

Last Wednesday we had a "winter storm warning"... Which of course doesn't mean the same thing here as elsewhere lol, but it was quite rainy and cold. 

Then on Sunday we had rain and a high of about only 59. 

Typical this time of year (May) is a high of 73 and a low of 54, and 0.25" precipitation... Been definitely lower than that. 

Looking at weather.com, it says month to date the highest temp recorded is 76, the lowest is 48, and we've already had 0.96" precipitation this month.

Apparently for Mission Viejo, the record high in May is 100 and the record low is 33, so we're nowhere near records on either end.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2019, 12:41:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2019, 11:43:33 AM

I'm guessing Tesla is not close to the End, meaning, not in a year or more.

What happens when everyone comes out with new EVs is a question.

As mentioned, I've gotten sucked into Tesla-watch. 

Tesla bulls will tell you that they exited Q1 with $2.2B in cash, and then executed a $2.3B [net proceeds] capital raise. So even if they continued the quarterly burn rate of Q1, they'd still be flush at least through 2019. Musk claimed that this capital raise wasn't really intended to be spent, and was there as a cushion.

Tesla bears will tell you that $2.2B Q1 number was completely goosed, that they'd been extending promised scheduled payments to suppliers, and that they were probably out of money when they raised capital in early May. Which--when you look at the cost and terms of that raise ($2.7B but only $2.3B net to Tesla) look like it was a desperation play and they were out of money.

I'm reading both sides and having trouble working out the truth. Tesla keeps dropping prices, utilizing their "demand levers" such as leasing and accelerating availability of the low-margin SR+ and SR models. At the same time they are continuing to guide to 90-100K deliveries in Q2, which would be nearly their all-time record and a huge boost from Q1. 

Their problem is that they're still unable to be profitable on the lower-end models. But if they hit their delivery guidance, and their quarterly losses are relatively small, it will look like that capital raise has at least given them the runway to keep pushing. Because the volume on those lower-end models will at least help them amortize their fixed factory costs for now. Given that this would allow the growth story to continue [even if it's still a struggle], you'd see a hard and fast rebound in the stock back to its astronomic valuations.

If they have another weak sales quarter and they burn nearly another billion in cash like Q1, however, especially if it starts to smell like they continue to hold back payments to suppliers to goose cash-on-hand numbers, I could see some suppliers going to a COD model and demanding payment, and that would be a quick death spiral as early as Q3.

Which means big bets either way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2019, 12:57:29 PM

I saw one Tesla "expert" put a price target of $35 a share on the table (worst case) and another $7,000.  I doubt there is another stock with anything like that much range in "expert" predictions.  The options chain on TSLA must be fascinating, I have never looked, might.

In my experience, such draconian predictions often end in the mud and the stock in question just waffles around about where it is for a while.

It has fallen under $200, which is a large step off it's highs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2019, 01:25:27 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2019, 12:57:29 PM

I saw one Tesla "expert" put a price target of $35 a share on the table (worst case) and another $7,000.  I doubt there is another stock with anything like that much range in "expert" predictions.  The options chain on TSLA must be fascinating, I have never looked, might.

In my experience, such draconian predictions often end in the mud and the stock in question just waffles around about where it is for a while.

It has fallen under $200, which is a large step off it's highs.

Truly an enigmatic stock... 

It's not valued anything like an automaker. It's valued like an astronomic growth tech stock. 

Which means that you can't give really determine what the stock price "should" be based on the fundamentals consistent with other automakers. Because if you did, the stock would drop like a stone. The market cap is way too high. 

You have to assume that Tesla is growing and will continue to grow into its market cap. If you believe that story, you'll support high prices. If you don't, you won't. 

Which means that the narrative drives its stock price. Which is why those Q2 delivery numbers are critical after the enormous failure of Q1. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 28, 2019, 04:58:30 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 28, 2019, 12:30:43 PM

Last Wednesday we had a "winter storm warning"... Which of course doesn't mean the same thing here as elsewhere lol, but it was quite rainy and cold.

Then on Sunday we had rain and a high of about only 59.

Typical this time of year (May) is a high of 73 and a low of 54, and 0.25" precipitation... Been definitely lower than that.

Looking at weather.com, it says month to date the highest temp recorded is 76, the lowest is 48, and we've already had 0.96" precipitation this month.

Apparently for Mission Viejo, the record high in May is 100 and the record low is 33, so we're nowhere near records on either end.

He wasn't talking about records for the month of May.

He texted me that one particular day--26 May--had a record low of 46.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on May 31, 2019, 12:17:11 AM

Iowa had between 10 to 20 tornadoes May 29, 2019. There were at least 10 spotted, and more radar indicated. Watching cable television the beep beep beep was repetitive all night. None close to us. The weather people are still analyzing #s. We are on the edge, not the center, of tornado alley. 

All were brief touchdowns. Probably no EF-3s or above. 

One night is just weather; but climate change, is here. The amount of flooding the past 26-years has been incredible in Iowa.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2019, 08:17:56 AM

Need to remove the levees. That would be a good start.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2019, 08:21:22 AM

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.humberriver.ca%2Fimages%2Fworldmap1.jpg&hash=573ec9d71635d11f4191cd6996c6338d)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2019, 08:50:34 AM

Malinkovitch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2019, 10:54:12 AM

There won't be any today, but the record is now set for most rain in Chicago for any month of May. Been a crappy Spring here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2019, 11:03:13 AM

I have not seen rain and floods blamed on Climate Change, but I'm sure somebody has.  The droughts were associated with climate change also.

Hurricane intensity has not changed over the years.  There is some suggestion they are moving more slowly which means more rain in an area.

I'm hesitant to associate weather with climate unless said weather persists over decades.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2019, 11:14:55 AM

That's the logical approach. The climate is changing. Well, ya don't say?? 


It's always changed, and it always will.


<<drops mic>>

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2019, 12:10:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2019, 11:03:13 AM

I have not seen rain and floods blamed on Climate Change, but I'm sure somebody has.  The droughts were associated with climate change also.

Hurricane intensity has not changed over the years.  There is some suggestion they are moving more slowly which means more rain in an area.

I'm hesitant to associate weather with climate unless said weather persists over decades.

Yeah, a lot of people said that climate change would increase the intensity and number of hurricanes and tornadoes. So far, that has not proven to be evident from actual experience. 

Every time there's a big tornado / flood / hurricane / drought, the climate change alarmists say "look it's happening!" And ever time it gets cold in the winter, the climate change skeptics say "boy, really looks like global warming today, huh?"

Or, in other words, people are dumb. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 31, 2019, 12:20:03 PM

Here's a pretty good graph on the likelihood that climate change has caused various kinds of sever weather. Excess rainfall is in the middle:

(https://i.imgur.com/Pl0G3iu.png)


Here's the article if you're interested: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/29/climate-change-and-tornadoes-a-succinct-guide-to-what-we-know/#fef5fb7709c2 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/29/climate-change-and-tornadoes-a-succinct-guide-to-what-we-know/#fef5fb7709c2)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2019, 01:31:19 PM

DES MOINES, Iowa – (April 30, 2019) – MidAmerican Energy Company this month set a new one-day wind generation record in Iowa for generating electricity that supplied its entire retail customers’ electric usage with renewable energy.

On April 10, company-owned and contracted wind farms generated 111,500 megawatt-hours of energy across the state. MidAmerican Energy’s previous one-day wind generation record, set in January, was 106,000 MWh.

Over the first three weeks in April, the wind farms generated 1,314 gigawatt-hours, supplying 88% of overall customer electric energy consumption during that time frame.

One gigawatt-hour of energy is enough to power approximately 90 homes over the course of a year. So in the first three weeks of April, MidAmerican Energy wind farms generated the amount of energy it takes to power more than 117,000 homes for a year.

“Hitting this record is a milestone for our customers and our company,” Spencer Moore, MidAmerican Energy Company vice president of generation, said. “It shows we’re well on our way to meeting our 100% renewable energy vision, which is to power our Iowa customers’ annual use with renewable sources.”

Last year, the Iowa Utilities Board verified that in 2017, MidAmerican Energy provided its customers with more than half of their electricity from renewable sources.

The company is on track to becoming the first investor-owned electric utility in the nation to generate renewable energy equal to 100% of its customers’ usage on an annual basis, after completing its newest planned 591-megawatt wind energy project by the end of next year. MidAmerican Energy expects to complete the $922-million plan, called Wind XII, at no net cost to its customers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 01, 2019, 07:23:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2019, 11:03:13 AM

I have not seen rain and floods blamed on Climate Change, but I'm sure somebody has.  The droughts were associated with climate change also.

Hurricane intensity has not changed over the years.  There is some suggestion they are moving more slowly which means more rain in an area.

I'm hesitant to associate weather with climate unless said weather persists over decades.

Don't know about Hurricane intensity they do seem more frequent though but so are trips to the head in the middle of the night.Well it's mandatory we're just gonna have to hang around for a few more decades to see if your premise comes to fruition

and FF I guess I'd stick with the electric water tank.Hell I just might move there if 847 ever gets off his arse and gitts on that Great Lake he promised - slacker

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2019, 07:45:38 AM

There is a measure of hurricane intensity and frequency on the web.  No increase is obvious.

ACE is one suitable metric.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-accumulated-cyclone-energy/70003045 (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-accumulated-cyclone-energy/70003045)

(https://i.imgur.com/xianBUO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2019, 07:46:27 AM

Hard to see a trend, though some cycles are perhaps obvious:

(https://i.imgur.com/wpNNRmC.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2019, 07:56:08 AM

This does show a trend however:

(https://i.imgur.com/ubyFOpk.png)

This figure presents annual values of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which accounts for cyclone strength, duration, and frequency. Tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature trends are provided for reference. Note that sea surface temperature is measured in different units, but the values have been plotted alongside the PDI to show how they compare. The lines have been smoothed using a five-year weighted average, plotted at the middle year. The most recent average (2011–2015) is plotted at 2013.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on June 02, 2019, 12:58:25 AM

I think I have read the rainfall anomalies can be expected with climate change, and that initially the corn belt production will become more as climate temps increase in the corn belt, before it becomes less productive.

We are still in the Quaternary Ice Age, and should not speak of the "last ice age," we are still in it. Technically 10,000 years ago as the Pleistocene was ending, that was the most recent "glacial period" of the Quaternary Ice Age. I recall speaking to someone 3-years ago in Alaska at the Alaska State Troopers on a business call, who was very concerned with their warm temperatures for the season, which were warmer than ours. We should be most concerned how weather and climate effects affect Alaska, Greenland and other areas on the far north and south than we are with areas in the temperate zones.

This is from NOAA, for March 2019 anomalies:

(https://i.imgur.com/cAQG13f.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 02, 2019, 07:51:38 AM

I think it's rained every day here in the past two weeks except for 3.The winter was longer than expected now we're stuck in April.Hopefully we have a nice mellow summer.Seems odd I spent 2 days scrubbing down my gutters,facia,soffiting then two weeks of rain commence bringing debris from the trees.Could use about a week of sunshine folks look like the walking dead with all the cloud cover.Friend said it the most spring rain we've had in 21 yrs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2019, 08:17:34 AM

I wonder how many "climate anomalies" occurred in 1935, or 1835.  These look like "weather anomalies" to me.  Obviously, we have better tracking tools these days.

I remain hesitant to associate even very unusual weather events with climate change until and unless they become prevalent over a decade or more.  We know some weather patterns are cyclic, for reasons unclear in some cases.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 05, 2019, 10:15:49 PM

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050?fbclid=IwAR1-vPZpAlDyr3N6hGo2fnd8XwMofT02_zYr1Y_QvLaNKs63YsGEsmamJL0 (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050?fbclid=IwAR1-vPZpAlDyr3N6hGo2fnd8XwMofT02_zYr1Y_QvLaNKs63YsGEsmamJL0)

High Likelihood of human civilization coming to an end in 2050.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 05, 2019, 11:22:22 PM

I wonder if there's ever been a period of optimum temperature.

Would it be where we were 300 years ago, during the Little Ice Age?  Where we were 1800 years ago during the Roman Empire warm period?  Where we were 2500 years ago during the Grecian Empire cold period?

That is not to say that there's nothing to worry about now.

But I don't see that the warnings of a retired Australian admiral necessarily add much to the story.  He could be a guy who wouldn't say something that hadn't thoroughly researched, or he could be an old crackpot who can't let go of the power and influence he had when he was on active duty, and there are plenty of guys like that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 05, 2019, 11:41:31 PM

I'll be the first to tell you that climate change is the biggest issue for my lifetime, but exaggerating it doesn't help the cause transitioning to a cleaner economy, as this article explains pretty well.

https://nypost.com/2019/05/29/calling-climate-change-catastrophic-makes-it-harder-to-find-real-answers/ (https://nypost.com/2019/05/29/calling-climate-change-catastrophic-makes-it-harder-to-find-real-answers/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 06:59:23 AM

It's great to be able to hold a rational discussion on line about this topic.

I am still looking for a practicable plan to make a real change in what is happening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 06, 2019, 09:22:31 AM

I'd buy that humans may destroy civilization by 2050, but I'm guessing it's more likely to be war or bioterrorism than climate change. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 09:28:08 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/3xDeHIk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 06, 2019, 10:10:54 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 06, 2019, 09:22:31 AM

I'd buy that humans may destroy civilization by 2050, but I'm guessing it's more likely to be war or bioterrorism than climate change.

If by "bioterrorism" you mean "man-made zombie apocalypse" then I agree 100%!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 10:12:20 AM

https://www.npr.org/2019/06/06/729594169/contentious-oregon-climate-plan-takes-lessons-from-californias-mistakes (https://www.npr.org/2019/06/06/729594169/contentious-oregon-climate-plan-takes-lessons-from-californias-mistakes)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on June 06, 2019, 11:46:44 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 06:59:23 AM

It's great to be able to hold a rational discussion on line about this topic.

I am still looking for a practicable plan to make a real change in what is happening.

I agree. It is the greatest threat facing humanity. Denying it and pretending like it doesn't exist like the current President and virtually every republican politician in the country isn't practical.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 12:05:33 PM

I personally do not view it as the "greatest threat facing humanity".  Obviously that's an opinion either way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 06, 2019, 01:17:26 PM

Quote from: utee94 on June 06, 2019, 10:10:54 AM

If by "bioterrorism" you mean "man-made zombie apocalypse" then I agree 100%!

Perhaps not "zombie" apocalypse, but bio-engineered diseases/plagues, that sort of thing. 

Or even a natural one. The current bacteria that are becoming ever-more resistant to antibiotics mutate into something that we have no defense for. Or maybe a super-Ebola virus. Who knows?

Or we create AI and it rapidly grows into Skynet or the Matrix and realizes it doesn't need us any more. 

Where climate change might be involved? Perhaps it causes some sort of viral issue as changing environmental conditions spur rapid disease mutations to adapt [or allow something to jump from animals to humans], or disruption of climate change causes some unhinged dictator to start a global thermonuclear war. 

How about a nice game of chess? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 06, 2019, 06:55:36 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 06, 2019, 01:17:26 PM

Perhaps not "zombie" apocalypse, but bio-engineered diseases/plagues, that sort of thing.

Or even a natural one. The current bacteria that are becoming ever-more resistant to antibiotics mutate into something that we have no defense for. Or maybe a super-Ebola virus. Who knows?

Or we create AI and it rapidly grows into Skynet or the Matrix and realizes it doesn't need us any more.

Where climate change might be involved? Perhaps it causes some sort of viral issue as changing environmental conditions spur rapid disease mutations to adapt [or allow something to jump from animals to humans], or disruption of climate change causes some unhinged dictator to start a global thermonuclear war.

How about a nice game of chess?

No, I want my bio-engineered plague to manifest as a zombie apocalypse, as prophesied in the movie 28 Days Later (and a million others)!  :)

We're already skirting SkyNet though.  Really scary when AI chatbots develop their own language to circumvent human dialog. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 06, 2019, 07:14:08 PM

I have no idea what your caterwauling on about.Have you been into the Tito's?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 06, 2019, 08:34:12 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 06, 2019, 01:17:26 PM

Perhaps not "zombie" apocalypse, but bio-engineered diseases/plagues, that sort of thing.

Or even a natural one. The current bacteria that are becoming ever-more resistant to antibiotics mutate into something that we have no defense for. Or maybe a super-Ebola virus. Who knows?

Or we create AI and it rapidly grows into Skynet or the Matrix and realizes it doesn't need us any more.

Where climate change might be involved? Perhaps it causes some sort of viral issue as changing environmental conditions spur rapid disease mutations to adapt [or allow something to jump from animals to humans], or disruption of climate change causes some unhinged dictator to start a global thermonuclear war.

How about a nice game of chess?

Every time someone washes his/her hands with antibiotic soap, more antibiotic-resistant bacteria are being created.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 09:10:57 PM

All soap is antibiotic.  All of it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 06, 2019, 10:13:21 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 09:10:57 PM

All soap is antibiotic.  All of it.

I think I should have used the term "antibacterial."
How does that work?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 07, 2019, 12:20:12 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on June 06, 2019, 07:14:08 PM

I have no idea what your caterwauling on about.Have you been into the Tito's?

No, generally not on a school night.

But tomorrow...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 08:01:21 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on June 06, 2019, 10:13:21 PM

I think I should have used the term "antibacterial."
How does that work?

Yeah, sorry.  The burfle they add to soap these days is pretty useless anyway, triclosan as I recall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 08:02:52 AM

If someone ponied up a real plan with timing and costs and how it would impact climate change with some specifics, I'd view that as "real".

My own version would start with some mechanism for closing all our coal power plants, how much that would cost and who pays for it, and how much CO2 that would eliminate and the impact on CC according to the models.

It would not paint a rosey picture, which is why no one does it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2019, 09:06:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 08:02:52 AM

If someone ponied up a real plan with timing and costs and how it would impact climate change with some specifics, I'd view that as "real".

My own version would start with some mechanism for closing all our coal power plants, how much that would cost and who pays for it, and how much CO2 that would eliminate and the impact on CC according to the models.

It would not paint a rosey picture, which is why no one does it.

A lot of utilities and states (and in some cases countries, including Germany and the UK, in addition to the Scandinavian countries) already have plans to shutdown their remaining coal plants, and pretty much all of them (FirstEnergy and the state of Wyoming being the most notorious exceptions) have conceded that coal has no long-term future, which is why basically no coal plants have been built in recent years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2019, 09:21:17 AM

Lake Michigan (Huron) is at an all-time high, which is being blamed on climate change.


In 2013, when Lake Michigan (Huron) were all-time lows, it was blamed on global warming.


I see what they did there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 09:49:38 AM

This is why I'm hesitant to blame anything that could be a short term trend on CC.  Droughts, wild fires, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, whatever, it's weather, not climate, unless it is prolonged.

We had a bad spell of hot weather and drought in the 1930s, it got very dusty in places.

Longer term trends are more compelling to me, probably the ice over parts.

Humans individually cannot detect the kinds of changes in temperature we're talking about over even 20 years.  Is the summer hotter than before?  Maybe, but the mean would be a few tenths of a degree hotter using the models.  We can't discern that.  But any hotter than normal day is ascribed to CC and any cooler than normal day is ignored.  Confirmation bias.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 07, 2019, 11:07:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 08:02:52 AM

If someone ponied up a real plan with timing and costs and how it would impact climate change with some specifics, I'd view that as "real".

My own version would start with some mechanism for closing all our coal power plants, how much that would cost and who pays for it, and how much CO2 that would eliminate and the impact on CC according to the models.

It would not paint a rosey picture, which is why no one does it.

Agree on this.  And I'd like to see a similar real plan for carbon emissions from fuel combustion, with costs and timelines for reducing by say 50%, and also by 100%, detailing the expected improvement to environmental issues (based on whatever our "best" models currently are) and what the financial impact would be to those forced to reduce/eliminate their emissions.  Tie that back to the pie chart from the previous page, clearly the USA and China are the big offenders, so that's a good place to start.

Like you say, and like you have said many times, nobody wants to do this because it's pretty ugly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 11:16:00 AM

It's VERY ugly.  I've done a bit of effort on this and there simply is no viable approach.  I think it would make some sense to go after coal burning power plants (it would still be used for steel).  But we'd need to replace them with "something" and it would be expensive.  If the replacement was NG, it would knock down CO2 levels by a third.  If with nukes, it would knock it down nearly 100%, same with wind and solar, but it would be a stretch to replace nearly 30% of our generating capacity with wind and solar very quickly.  Those two today are about 8% of the grid, coal is around 30%.

And we haven't started in on NG or transportation.  Even if wind and solar double in ten years, we're at 16%.  

What's the cost of this?  Who pays for it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2019, 11:33:10 AM

In regulated states (ie. Southern and Western states except TX and CA) it's utilities (rate-based through their customers) that primarily pay for generation infrastructure.

In states with wholesale generation markets (Northeast, Midwest, CA, TX), companies choose to invest in new generation. In some cases, those are utilities, but in others they are independent companies (eg. Invenergy is one of the leading renewable energy developers).

Of course, renewable portfolio standards can come into play, as well, but they're actually increasingly irrelevant as the economics of wind and solar continue to improve.

Incidentally, this news just came out today: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/bloomberg-commits-500m-to-phasing-out-coal-halting-new-gas-plants/556430/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/bloomberg-commits-500m-to-phasing-out-coal-halting-new-gas-plants/556430/) and https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ge-badly-misjudged-the-clean-energy-transition-costing-investors-almost/556420/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ge-badly-misjudged-the-clean-energy-transition-costing-investors-almost/556420/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 11:44:22 AM

It would be interesting to approximate how fast the transition would occur with no incentives or push because of climate change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2019, 01:36:17 PM

It's not hard. It's easy.

Carbon tax. 

Now, a carbon tax is regressive, which will anger the liberals. But so is the payroll tax, and they support that. 

So why not make the carbon tax revenue-neutral with the payroll tax and eliminate the payroll tax. You replace one regressive tax with another, but in the process you discourage the consumption of what you want to discourage [carbon], while you encourage the thing you actually want to increase [jobs]. 

(Explained more eloquently here.) (http://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2018/09/trans-partisan-plan-1-addressing-man-made-global-warming-with-a-plan-that-could-be-supported-by-both-democrats-and-republicans.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2019, 01:43:21 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 11:44:22 AM

It would be interesting to approximate how fast the transition would occur with no incentives or push because of climate change.

Texas is probably the closest thing to that. They have relatively few incentives and no renewable portfolio standard, and yet they are the leading state for wind generation and the fastest growing state for solar generation. That probably doesn't hold true on a per capita or per square mile basis, of course, but they had would still be near the top either way*. Here's some more info:
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/a-snapshot-of-texas-growing-appetite-for-wind-and-solar-power#gs.gwp4oc

 (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/a-snapshot-of-texas-growing-appetite-for-wind-and-solar-power#gs.gwp4oc)*As for the highest ranked states in terms of percentage of generation from wind and solar, a lot of the Great Plains states (along with Hawaii, California, and North Carolina) are high on that list despite similarly low or non-existent incentives and RPSs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2019, 01:56:03 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 07, 2019, 01:36:17 PM

It's not hard. It's easy.

Carbon tax.

Now, a carbon tax is regressive, which will anger the liberals. But so is the payroll tax, and they support that.

So why not make the carbon tax revenue-neutral with the payroll tax and eliminate the payroll tax. You replace one regressive tax with another, but in the process you discourage the consumption of what you want to discourage [carbon], while you encourage the thing you actually want to increase [jobs].

(Explained more eloquently here.) (http://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2018/09/trans-partisan-plan-1-addressing-man-made-global-warming-with-a-plan-that-could-be-supported-by-both-democrats-and-republicans.html)

I don't necessarily oppose carbon taxes, but they're much more difficult to get passed, at least in the US, whereas they're common in Western Europe (meanwhile, Alberta actually just repealed its own apparently), and the outcomes aren't necessarily any better than incentivizing renewables and energy efficiency, both of which also reduce emissions and are creating more jobs than pretty much any other sector....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2019, 02:18:10 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2019, 01:56:03 PM

I don't necessarily oppose carbon taxes, but they're much more difficult to get passed, at least in the US, whereas they're common in Western Europe (meanwhile, Alberta actually just repealed its own apparently), and the outcomes aren't necessarily any better than incentivizing renewables and energy efficiency, both of which also reduce emissions and are creating more jobs than pretty much any other sector....

Well, one of the biggest problems with passing any new tax is that it's a "new" tax, always talked about on top of other taxes. You start telling conservatives that you're implementing a carbon tax and they'll lose their minds about how you're just growing government because you want a new honey pot for spending.

But if it's sold as a package deal, where the carbon tax replaces the payroll tax on a revenue-neutral basis, that might appease both sides. You appease conservatives and big business by reducing the tax burden of hiring employees, and you appease the liberals by giving them a tax they want to save the planet while continuing to fund Social Security and Medicare. You could even make it explicit (or as explicit as possible) by deliberately tying the revenues to the SS/Medicare "trust funds", even though they're just accounting fiction anyway.

You could even put certain kickers into it, such as the carbon tax rate increases over time if revenues start to fall relative to what the payroll tax would have generated. I.e. much like nicotine taxes, if you are too successful at changing behavior you lose revenue, but since you're trying to eliminate behavior, progressively increasing taxes over time to maintain preset revenue numbers makes some sense. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2019, 02:34:08 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2019, 01:56:03 PM

the outcomes aren't necessarily any better than incentivizing renewables and energy efficiency, both of which also reduce emissions and are creating more jobs than pretty much any other sector....

BTW, I tend to not like the sort of incentives/subsidies that are easy to game the system.

Europe's cap-and-trade system is an example. If you don't set the caps correctly, you end up with this arbitrage market where some companies are being [unfairly] subsidized by selling their credits while others are being [unfairly] punished and forced to buy credits, in a way that may not actually conform to solving the problem. Even worse, if you set the caps too high, you don't reduce emissions, and if you set them too low, you end up punishing your own captive industries relative to external (US/worldwide) competitors.

Tesla, which [in addition to a sidelong subsidy from federal/state/other nations' BEV subsidies to buyers] gets significant revenue by selling emissions credits to other automakers, is another example. Their great Q4 and terrible Q1 were directly tied to demand being pulled forward based on the federal tax credit being chopped in half. Now going forward in the US they'll--as pioneers of the industry--will be selling their cars at full price while their competitors who haven't met the volume numbers are subsidized by the Feds at $7500/vehicle.

Imagine if we'd tried to do this with tobacco. Let's set different "caps" on nicotine consumption such that cigars, pipes, menthol cigs, "light" cigs, full-strength cigs, vapes, and smokeless (dip/snuff) all have different caps. Let's allow them to price/sell their credits to each other based on the mix of what they're selling/using. Do you think that would have been NEARLY as efficient of a way to reduce overall tobacco usage as just taxing the stuff? 

Price tends to be a remarkable driver of behavior. Setting a price on carbon--from whatever source--will tend the users of the worst-polluting carbon sources to be punished most heavily, effectively driving down usage. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 02:35:30 PM

Raising money with taxes is practicable in theory, but what do you do with the revenue?  Buy new power producers for utilities?  Build wind/solar and sell to utilities?

Would that appreciably make things happen faster than they are now?  

I'd focus on closing the coal power plants, as I said, but even that sounds tough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2019, 03:08:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 02:35:30 PM

Raising money with taxes is practicable in theory, but what do you do with the revenue?  Buy new power producers for utilities?  Build wind/solar and sell to utilities?

Would that appreciably make things happen faster than they are now? 

I'd focus on closing the coal power plants, as I said, but even that sounds tough.

The revenue from the carbon tax goes to the SS/Medicare trust fund, to replace the lost revenue from the payroll tax. I'm not trying to "raise" revenue, I'm trying to change the revenue source such that it discourages the use of fossil fuels rather than discourages employment. 

Taxes make things more expensive. Subsidies make things cheaper. The key accelerant towards adoption of cleaner energy sources isn't the raw price of those sources, but the relative price of those sources. 

The key is that we--as a society--don't necessarily care WHICH clean energy source ends up winning the race relative to carbon. We're not "pro-solar", we're "anti-CO2". So instead of trying to pick winners, why not just implement a carbon tax to put a handicap on the one we all want to lose and then see who wins the race?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 03:14:46 PM

Ah, I missed that, thanks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2019, 03:22:07 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2019, 09:21:17 AM

Lake Michigan (Huron) is at an all-time high, which is being blamed on climate change.


In 2013, when Lake Michigan (Huron) were all-time lows, it was blamed on global warming.


I see what they did there.

Lake Erie is at it's highest levels since 1986.It's been so wet the last month people are starting to resemble tadpoles

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2019, 03:48:10 PM

plenty of wet spots here to spawn nats and mosquitoes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 03:55:07 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 07, 2019, 03:08:52 PM

The key is that we--as a society--don't necessarily care WHICH clean energy source ends up winning the race relative to carbon. We're not "pro-solar", we're "anti-CO2". So instead of trying to pick winners, why not just implement a carbon tax to put a handicap on the one we all want to lose and then see who wins the race?

I bet if nuclear "won", people would care.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2019, 03:58:57 PM

some people would

some folks don't care for wind power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2019, 04:13:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 03:55:07 PM

I bet if nuclear "won", people would care.

I'm not anti-nuke. If it is the most economical solution, then let's do it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2019, 04:20:56 PM

A lot of folks are anti-nuke of course.  Not so much in France.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2019, 04:24:54 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 07, 2019, 03:58:57 PM

some people would

some folks don't care for wind power

Lots of folks don't care for wind power. Especially those who live nearby. That lease money looked good up front, and then flicker happens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2019, 05:04:17 PM

I don't mind the flicker, but it's not 24/7 for me.  I don't live there.

Just pass through occasionally, like last night 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2019, 06:53:59 AM

I thought Flicker was some TV show about a dolphin or something ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2019, 08:37:17 AM

back in the good old days when oil was cheap and the world would sustain humanity forever

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2019, 08:48:25 AM

There have been numerous projections in history that humanity was going to kill itself off, Malthus is the most famous perhaps.  There was the Population Bomb circa 1970 ss I recall.  In about 1890, someone did a projection of the amount of horse poop over time in NYC and stated they'd be 10 feet deep and unable to remove it all in ten years, or something like that.  I clearly recall the various "Zero Oil" arguments in 1980 or so and even bought a more fuel efficient car because I thought gasoline prices would only go higher and higher and higher.

Missed projections of course do not mean the next one is not right, but it is a sobering reminder that our models may have errors.

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

My hope for climate change is that the models are wrong the right way, and of course they could be wrong in the bad way.  I see no practicable means to limit CO2 emissions globally fast enough to make sufficient difference in the outcome.  Humanity MIGHT with some effort level CO2 emissions by say 2030, I doubt even that happens, but it's possible, and that would not be sufficient.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2019, 09:08:21 AM

most folks are a bit over dramatic in their reporting, usually innocently, just human nature

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 08, 2019, 11:21:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2019, 06:53:59 AM

I thought Flicker was some TV show about a dolphin or something ...

Pretty sure it's a horse

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 08, 2019, 12:04:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2019, 06:59:23 AM

It's great to be able to hold a rational discussion on line about this topic.

I am still looking for a practicable plan to make a real change in what is happening.

I'm sorry that I am late to the latest discussion, but here is my take. The climate IS changing, just as it has done since the Earth had a climate. Man has contributed to that processes that cause change in the climate, but not to the degree that people are trying to assign. I don't believe that short of giving up modern conveniences, there is much that we can do to end mankinds contribution to climate change.

But I would ask those that believe it is a serious issue, a couple of questions:

• What should the mean temperature of the climate be? 
• The spot in which I am currently sitting was supposedly covered by a mile thick sheet of ice several thousand years ago. What made that ice disappear and allow the warmer climate that we enjoy today? Was it cavemen driving SUV's? 

Now that is not to say that we shouldn't as a society, do what we can to stop polluting our environment. We should take steps to work towards power generation that does not pollute the air or contaminate the water and that is renewable. But we need to get the government out of such issues as they more often than not tend to corrupt those with which they partner. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 08, 2019, 12:06:32 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on June 06, 2019, 11:46:44 AM

I agree. It is the greatest threat facing humanity. Denying it and pretending like it doesn't exist like the current President and virtually every republican politician in the country isn't practical.

Just because someone would hold a different opinion on the subject that you do is not reason to disparage an entire group. I am old enough to remember when we were told that we would be in an ice age by now. Obviously those predictions were also wrong. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on June 08, 2019, 12:25:00 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 08, 2019, 12:06:32 PM

Just because someone would hold a different opinion on the subject that you do is not reason to disparage an entire group. I am old enough to remember when we were told that we would be in an ice age by now. Obviously those predictions were also wrong.

Stop now if you don't believe the "man" is the major reason for climate change you are an uninformed idiot who should just be dismissed out of hand. If you don't believe that you need the government to change behavior then you are just naive. Please do not contradict what those who know better are telling you. It is amazing how much better markets work to keep them in order when the government is controlling them. :73:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2019, 12:58:37 PM

When I was working, I had regular access to journals like Nature and Science.  I was engaged in some discussions with others about climate change off and on so I started "reading" the articles in those two rather preeiminent journals on the topic.  Not one of them said "Climate change is caused by man.".  They were all about some parameter in some model and how they suggested altering it, nearly all of them were about the models.  We have 5-6-7 different models, I don't know how many are widely accepted.  The work on them is to fit additional parameters when possible and modify older ones so as to conform to past historical readings.

Now, it turns out, to my surprise initially, that measuring mean global temperature is anything but easy.  Some folks claim the satellite measurements are among the worst ways, leaving us with ground measurements, and if you think about averaging temperature readings from various spots over time you can see potential issues, and they indeed are real.  It's a significant challenge in fact.

https://granthaminstitute.com/2015/10/16/taking-the-planets-temperature-how-are-global-temperatures-calculated/ (https://granthaminstitute.com/2015/10/16/taking-the-planets-temperature-how-are-global-temperatures-calculated/)

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections)

The changes in a year or even a decade are tiny.  The last link projects an increase by 2100 of between 2° and 10°F (from 2012).  If we take that as 90 years, the maximum change would be less than 1°F per decade (which would be a bad thing).  No human would notice that in their everyday life, which is one reason I suspect some dispute all of this.  You don't feel it.  Some summers are hotter and some are not, like here last year was quite moderate, the highest recorded T was 93°F on one day.  It usually hits the high 90s a few times in July and August.  Does that mean the climate is not warming?  Of course not.

I'd guess "we" might believe things indeed are hotter in 30-50 years or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2019, 01:00:17 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on June 08, 2019, 12:25:00 PM

Stop now if you don't believe the "man" is the major reason for climate change you are an uninformed idiot who should just be dismissed out of hand. 

Around here, we have an unusual group of open minded and rather intelligent folks (I think anyway) who can offer alternative opinions on a variety of topics without being called uninformed idiots.  We generally can disagree amicably and try and understand the point the other may be making.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2019, 04:08:15 PM

Like everything else (seemingly) these days, you "have to" pick one side or the other.

That's not how I roll, and not how I suspect most here roll. What happened to the middle? Oh right. They are not vocal. And there are a whole lot of them.

I've been called a denier because I ask questions. In my younger days I'd probably have broken a knuckle or two, but I'm much more laid back than I was then.

This climate change stuff is just another in a round of political hot topics. I'm not sure why it has to be about politics though. Seems stupid to me. Then again, most of today's "issues" seems stupid to me.

I'd like to hear from some politician about levee and dam removal, and the subsequent dropping of the FEMA flood insurance program. I suspect for that to happen, however, I'd have to run for office, and win.

Who's with me? I used to inhale, back in the day (transparency intended).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2019, 11:20:39 PM

I'm with you!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2019, 05:10:59 AM

I have been called a "Luddite" (not specifically, but someone who does not believe in science etc.) by some for asking questions.

My main question is what can be done about this?  Show me a plan.  I actually got banned from one Internet site for asking that question.

I also note that IF wind and solar are now cheaper than coal etc., the transition should happen "naturally" with no other actions, and there are signs it is happening of course, but perhaps not as fast as some desire.  I understand sunk capital as a concept.

The idea of pricing "carbon" higher to replace the FICA tax is one I had not heard before, that is interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2019, 06:15:29 AM

https://www.npr.org/2019/06/08/730456004/more-people-see-climate-change-in-record-floods-and-extreme-weather-will-that-me (https://www.npr.org/2019/06/08/730456004/more-people-see-climate-change-in-record-floods-and-extreme-weather-will-that-me)

Article is a bit disappointing to me, basically interviews "man on the street".  Has any climate expert connected these floods events to climate change?  If so, what is the linkage?  Was this predicted ahead of time?  Or linked causally after the fact?

Models should be able to predict, not confirm later.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2019, 09:22:34 AM

climate change debate has seemed to calm down a bit.

there are the articles, but the meetings, especially international meetings have stopped for now.

seems money is tight and there is no plan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2019, 09:45:34 AM

I think a prudent person would think:

1.  It is possible climate change is man made and serious and we need to mount a huge effort to limit it.
1a.  It is possible 1 is correct but we really can't do much in time to limit the damage no matter what.
2.  It is possible 1 is correct but it's not going to be all that serious.
3.  It is possible a bunch of folks have this badly wrong and are missing something critical in the equation and it's not real.

I keep looking for some sort of general path to a remedy that includes:

1.  Some sort of schedule for moving from A to B, like shutting down coal and replacing it with W/S.
2.  The costs associated with that, who is going to pay the cost, and how much that CO2 reduction will limit climate change.
3.  What has to be done by when to keep this from being catastrophic, or really really bad.
4.  How we can do that.

If humanity is simply not capable to limiting this, we probably should start considering how best to deal with it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 09, 2019, 10:04:41 AM

Plant more trees I'm convinced of that.I have a small woods and creek behind my house.Along with 2 oaks and a maple in the back yard.On real hot days it's a world of difference when you walk under canopy/umbrella provided by the trees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2019, 10:10:02 AM

my ex-wife made sure my yard looks like a forest

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2019, 10:15:43 AM

Yeah, I live in an urban environment, and the area has made a point of planting trees.  On hot days when walking, it is MUCH appreciated.  A new project near us just cut down something like 15 nice trees and we were unhappy, but supposedly they have to plant two for each one cut, but they will be smaller of course.

Progress.  Quite a few streets are mostly tree lined fortunately.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2019, 10:25:14 AM

maybe not as much as trees, but I imagine a cornfield or beanfield would be a benefit

this article is not hopeful

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/co2-atmosphere-planting-trees-oxygen-greenhouse-gas-carbon-dioxide-earth-scientists-climate-change-a8116856.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/co2-atmosphere-planting-trees-oxygen-greenhouse-gas-carbon-dioxide-earth-scientists-climate-change-a8116856.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2019, 10:27:05 AM

Plants consume CO2, but when they die they rot and release it back into the air, unless they are buried somehow.

A mature forest is basically CO2 neutral.  The oceans are by far the main CO2 sink and oxygen generator.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2019, 07:44:54 PM

well, I hear the oceans are rising as the polar ice melts, that might cure things

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2019, 07:28:44 AM

The melting of the Arctic Ice cap does not change ocean levels more than a tiny amount.  The melting of glaciers on Greenland does.

Sea ice melt doesn't change sea level.  The ice already displacing the water.  There is a small density/salinity change factor.

I think the story would be more compelling for some folks if it focused on quantifiable metrics like glacier melting over time, things one can see and not dispute, somehow count up all the glaciers in the world for which we have long term data and show the trends.  Maybe one or two are increasing in size.

https://skepticalscience.com/himalayan-glaciers-growing.htm (https://skepticalscience.com/himalayan-glaciers-growing.htm)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 10, 2019, 07:30:09 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 09, 2019, 10:10:02 AM

my ex-wife made sure my yard looks like a forest

To trick Hansel & Gretel? ;D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 10, 2019, 10:16:09 AM

and little Red Riding Hood

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 10, 2019, 12:08:29 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2019, 04:08:15 PM

Like everything else (seemingly) these days, you "have to" pick one side or the other.

That's not how I roll, and not how I suspect most here roll. What happened to the middle? Oh right. They are not vocal. And there are a whole lot of them.

I've been called a denier because I ask questions. In my younger days I'd probably have broken a knuckle or two, but I'm much more laid back than I was then.

This climate change stuff is just another in a round of political hot topics. I'm not sure why it has to be about politics though. Seems stupid to me. Then again, most of today's "issues" seems stupid to me.

I'd like to hear from some politician about levee and dam removal, and the subsequent dropping of the FEMA flood insurance program. I suspect for that to happen, however, I'd have to run for office, and win.

Who's with me? I used to inhale, back in the day (transparency intended).

I thought about running for local office a few years back.  And then I thought-- what if I actually get elected???

Sobering thought right there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on June 10, 2019, 12:36:41 PM

welp the Audi e-tron and the MB EV SUVs are finally here and....yup you guessed it....they are both giant pieces of trash. Both struggle to get even 200 miles of actual range, and the few Audi E-trons that have been delivered have already been recalled. Lulz.



refresh of the Tesla Model X SUV expected this fall, and rumors are the range is going to be 400+ miles on the long range.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on June 10, 2019, 02:35:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on June 10, 2019, 12:08:29 PM

I thought about running for local office a few years back.  And then I thought-- what if I actually get elected???

Sobering thought right there.

I have a front row seat to it. People only contact their elected officials when they are upset and want something. It takes a special kind of skill to deal with that. And no matter what decision you make, someone won't like it. And when you make a decision that someone doesn't like, you're an idiot, or uncaring, or mean, or...fill in the angry response.

The process is intentionally slow, which no one likes, except when they understand that the reason it's slow is to allow "the people" to weigh in--the whole point in a democracy. People love the opportunity to participate, but they hate that the process takes too long. And they mostly don't connect the two.

And there's a reason that "hot topic" issues are difficult; there are opposing sides with legitimate interests that are at risk, and those sides will fight hard for their interests. As "they" say, it's not the majority that wins in a democracy, it's the motivated and well-organized minority that wins. Why? Because they will fight harder for their direct interests than the majority will fight for something that doesn't directly impact them (or at least not in the same way).

Which is all to say that it's hard work.

On the other hand, the elected is the one at the table making the decisions, which is pretty cool, if you're into that sort of thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2019, 02:44:40 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on June 10, 2019, 02:35:32 PM

On the other hand, the elected is the one at the table making the decisions, which is pretty cool, if you're into that sort of thing.

I've been working pretty hard to NOT be into that sort of thing anymore. Almost done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2019, 04:09:31 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on June 10, 2019, 12:36:41 PM

welp the Audi e-tron and the MB EV SUVs are finally here and....yup you guessed it....they are both giant pieces of trash. Both struggle to get even 200 miles of actual range, and the few Audi E-trons that have been delivered have already been recalled. Lulz.

refresh of the Tesla Model X SUV expected this fall, and rumors are the range is going to be 400+ miles on the long range.

Still watching the Tesla soap opera... Always fun to read comments at Seeking Alpha and then go over to the Tesla Motors Club site and see the same topic discussed with the exact opposite reaction.

Big upcoming events--we'll see Q2 delivery numbers in early July, and Q2 earnings in early August. Both are critical, and Tesla needs to prove not only can they hit delivery targets but that they can do it without huge losses. Bad news on either day will be devastating to the stock price.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2019, 07:54:11 AM

Interesting subject.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-met-dead-zone-gulf-of-mexico-midwest-20190612-story.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 14, 2019, 09:43:27 AM

hopefully, the midwest won't see flooding like this for another 100 years or so and things can get back to normal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2019, 10:18:14 AM

I believe we have a new normal, my friend.

MWRDGC needs to get its shit (pun intended) together with the treatments plants here. The boondoggle "deep tunnel" project is years past due and billions over budget. That project was ill-advised from the start.

What Chicago really needed was to separate storm and sanitary sewers. The existing combination sewers could be used for stormwater and then new sanitary mains could be direct-drilled along both sides of each street and the services connected.

How this would work is that the new sanitary mains would be routed to the treatment plants and the existing combo sewers would be diverted to the deep tunnels, for storage and pre-treatment, to remove pollutants (oil, fertilizer, etc.). 

I have a plan for this, which I presented to our local rep, but it has not gone anywhere. It makes too much sense, I reckon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 14, 2019, 10:21:39 AM

I also imagine it's expensive and Illinois has no $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2019, 10:25:14 AM

Form a committee to review it ... And then go to an opera ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 14, 2019, 10:39:19 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 14, 2019, 09:43:27 AM

hopefully, the midwest won't see flooding like this for another 100 years or so and things can get back to normal

This spring is like the the movie "Ground Hog Day".Over a week ago they said it's the wettest spring since '86.Since then it's rained everyday but 2.Going to have to replace most of the flowers Cindy planted a month ago

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 14, 2019, 10:42:40 AM

NW Iowa has set records for the most rainfall in the past 12 months

but, july and august are coming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 14, 2019, 10:47:52 AM

I remember we've had very wet springs where the Farmers had to replant.Only to have the weather turn into a drought during July/August and the farmers were left pretty much empty handed.I hope that never happens again

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2019, 11:03:38 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 14, 2019, 10:21:39 AM

I also imagine it's expensive and Illinois has no $$$

Federal waters, my friend. I'm going to form a committee. I'm sure aren't any yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on June 14, 2019, 05:22:39 PM

I saw one Indiana farm w corn planted in my drive to WI last week.

Otherwise golden rod as far as the eye could see when not distracted by wind turbines north of Lafayette.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 16, 2019, 12:13:50 PM

From a WaPo article carried today in the Tulsa World.

Quote

[A]n upstart company, Boston-based Indigo AG, now wants to transform farming practices so that agriculture becomes quite the opposite of what it is today — a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
By promoting techniques that increase the potential of agricultural land to suck in carbon, the backers of Indigo AG believe they can set the foundation for a major effort to stem climate change. On Wednesday, the company announced a new initiative with the very ambitious goal of removing one trillion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by paying farmers to modify their practices.
Called the Terraton Initiative (a “teraton” is a trillion tons), the company forecasts that the initiative to sign up 3,000 farmers globally with more than 1 million acres in 2019.

So, this sounds great.


Only, isn't CO2 really not the big problem?  Isn't it more of a marker for other, more heat-retentive "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere than the problem itself?

If that's so, all our efforts to reduce CO2 by planting more trees, etc., will have little effect on atmospheric warming, no?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 16, 2019, 01:47:29 PM

There are several different companies and researchers trying to figure out how to economically make agriculture better environmentally.

As I understand it, some other types of molecules (eg. methane) have greater impact per unit, but there's so much more CO2 than anything else that it has the greatest aggregate impact.

Just found this article which explains it further: https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/CO2-and-global-warming-faq.html (https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/CO2-and-global-warming-faq.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2019, 02:50:40 PM

53 and rainy in Kenosha today. June 16th. June. 16th.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 16, 2019, 04:00:20 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2019, 02:50:40 PM

53 and rainy in Kenosha today. June 16th. June. 16th.

Same-same,rinse & repeat,people are starting to look like Zombie's/the Living Dead and those other stoopid shows.Too damn gray for too damn long

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2019, 05:09:16 PM

It's getting old. We live for summers on the boat and so far, it's been for shit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on June 16, 2019, 05:20:29 PM

Even too chilly to ski for my kids here in South central indiana

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 16, 2019, 06:22:52 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2019, 05:09:16 PM

It's getting old. We live for summers on the boat and so far, it's been for shit.

I'd tell you that it's nice and warm down here and boating is in full effect, buy ya know, don't move here and thank you for your support and all that. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 16, 2019, 07:09:09 PM

It's nice your using your docks for boats instead of hiding under them for shade  :character0029:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2019, 09:02:01 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2019, 05:09:16 PM

It's getting old. We live for summers on the boat and so far, it's been for shit.

might want to move south, the Gulf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2019, 09:18:37 PM

Back home to great weather.  Cincy was cold and rainy, yuck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2019, 09:54:26 PM

perfect weather here today

85 degrees, sunny, light breeze

great for golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2019, 07:37:29 AM

847 might want to move to Iowa.....that Great Lake he's installing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2019, 10:04:44 AM

I'm sure with enough dams and levees we could divert enough water here for a great lake

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2019, 10:06:35 AM

That's not the proper way to do it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2019, 10:11:02 AM

well, we shall simply wait for the rain and snow from the heavens

it seems to be working

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2019, 10:18:10 AM

Any diversion would have to come from Lake Superior.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2019, 11:35:48 AM

Oh no you don't fill it from the over-flows of the Miss & Mizz Rivers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2019, 11:38:22 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2019, 10:06:35 AM

That's not the proper way to do it.

I think he was stringing you along,not his 1st rodeo

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2019, 11:55:21 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on June 17, 2019, 11:35:48 AM

Oh no you don't fill it from the over-flows of the Miss & Mizz Rivers

So much for clean water...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2019, 12:13:05 PM

Filter it thru the sand bags - do I have to think of everything?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2019, 12:51:58 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2019, 11:55:21 AM

So much for clean water...

don't worry, the sewage from Chicago dumps into the Mississippi just north of St. Louis

thankfully, too far south to be a bother to Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2019, 01:13:24 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 17, 2019, 12:51:58 PM

don't worry, the sewage from Chicago dumps into the Mississippi just north of St. Louis

thankfully, too far south to be a bother to Iowa

Still have a lot of Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota going in there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2019, 01:19:00 PM

Stirr that Pot Fearless  :a102:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2019, 01:20:41 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2019, 01:13:24 PM

Still have a lot of Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota going in there.

yah, but in comparison to the sewage from Chicago, it's almost potable

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2019, 01:59:36 PM

Old distillers use to collect water sometimes down stream from cattle troughs/crossings

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2019, 03:13:06 PM

Properly treated sewage effluent is potable, or close, if they use tertiary.

It can be cleaner than whatever is in the river.

Sort of interesting about desalination plants, they of course dump saltier water back into the ocean, and some fear that causes some enviro impacts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2019, 06:47:43 PM

https://www.npr.org/2019/06/18/724343789/going-zero-carbon-is-all-the-rage-but-will-it-slow-climate-change (https://www.npr.org/2019/06/18/724343789/going-zero-carbon-is-all-the-rage-but-will-it-slow-climate-change)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 18, 2019, 11:06:40 PM

That's a pretty fair article / audio report. Decarbonizing the grid shouldn't be that hard in many parts of the world. The same can be done fairly easily for much of transportation (electric cars, buses, and commercial vehicles, but trucks, ships, and aircraft are difficult). The main challenges are in the industrial sector, agriculture, and miscellaneous areas. But that's just looking at the technological side.

Obviously, politics are a big challenge to overcome, though less so now than ever before (Trump's support of fossil fuels aside). The economics are still challenging in some respects, as well as societal acceptance.

Not to get off topic, but all that said, the scariest thing I read recently was this article: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/utilities-are-the-new-cyber-battlefield-as-us-ramps-up-pressure-on-russi/557052/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/utilities-are-the-new-cyber-battlefield-as-us-ramps-up-pressure-on-russi/557052/). Argentina also suffered a massive power outage this week due what is probably a failure in the transmission system, but if WW3 starts, it's probably going to be because the US, Russia, or some other powerful country's electrical grid was hacked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2019, 09:17:30 AM

Europe has issues with regular air pollution, pretty serious issues at times, like LA back in the day.

https://www.caranddriver.es/coches/planeta-motor/calidad-del-aire-espana-2019-ecologistas-en-accion?fbclid=IwAR3Dyq1Q3kmkIZiB_UCTy70fnxOzK-NzGlb__RXMj0TWA302xJkPv8gwG9I (https://www.caranddriver.es/coches/planeta-motor/calidad-del-aire-espana-2019-ecologistas-en-accion?fbclid=IwAR3Dyq1Q3kmkIZiB_UCTy70fnxOzK-NzGlb__RXMj0TWA302xJkPv8gwG9I)

Ironically, this was in part caused by their shift to Diesel circa 1990 in an effort to combat CO2 release.  Diesel is dirtier of course, and some of the automakers learned to cheat the test to make even dirtier cars.  I noticed a brown haze over the sky in Barcelona that was quite prominent, and Paris has had warnings in recent summers and wants to ban Diesel cars in a few years. 

I'd file this under unintended consequences, something like Germany's closure of nuclear power plants only to find now they are burning more coal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/10/10/why-arent-renewables-decreasing-germanys-carbon-emissions/#7a53554a68e1 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/10/10/why-arent-renewables-decreasing-germanys-carbon-emissions/#7a53554a68e1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2019, 05:35:30 PM

73 deg sunny,light wesern wind blowing mon/tue low 80's  :party0036:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2019, 06:07:02 PM

I chuckled today that Cincy is hotter than it is here.  In the shade here it is quite nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2019, 10:06:40 PM

heat index here over 110

over 100 saturday

tough for an old fat guy on the golf course, but I made it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on June 30, 2019, 11:36:40 PM

Am in the Adirondacks for the weekend with family. Had never been. It's yet more special american countryside.

Hope to earn 6 or 7 of the "high peaks" -- maybe 5 tomorrow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2019, 06:38:15 AM

Very hot in southern Europe but the temperatures have dropped some.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/strange-wavy-jet-stream-blasting-europe-heat-scientists-say-could-ncna1024826 (https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/strange-wavy-jet-stream-blasting-europe-heat-scientists-say-could-ncna1024826)

The jet stream discussion is interesting I thought.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 01, 2019, 03:28:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 01, 2019, 06:38:15 AM

Very hot in southern Europe but the temperatures have dropped some.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/strange-wavy-jet-stream-blasting-europe-heat-scientists-say-could-ncna1024826 (https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/strange-wavy-jet-stream-blasting-europe-heat-scientists-say-could-ncna1024826)

The jet stream discussion is interesting I thought.

I don't get this from the linked story:

Quote

Significantly reducing the world’s carbon emissions would slow global warming and return the jet stream to its more typical speed and pattern, according to Vavrus.

How would slowing global warming--which would still be an ongoing increase in Earth's temperature--return the jet stream to its "typical speed and pattern" of the time the globe was cooler than it presumably would be then?
Would the jet stream somehow "get acclimated to" the increased temperature if the rate of increase was less?
Over and over again, I am struck with the strange idea that most of the people writing these stories don't really know what they are talking about.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 01, 2019, 04:36:12 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 01, 2019, 03:28:16 PM

Over and over again, I am struck with the strange idea that most of the people writing these stories don't really know what they are talking about.

The Gell-Mann amnesia effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gell-Mann_amnesia_effect), created by author Michael Crichton:

Quote

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward — reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

I've lost enough trust in journalism that I don't suffer from this amnesia effect... Which is why I always suggest going to the source material.

This is ESPECIALLY true in science reporting. Typical science goes like this:

• Scientist publishes a peer-reviewed paper discussing some very technical and previously unknown interaction. Often the actual article name will have some arcane and complex title like "Androgenetic alopecia: identification of four genetic risk loci and evidence for the contribution of WNT signaling to its etiology." It's full of greek math symbols and multi-syllable science words, so nobody outside of other scientists ever actually read it. 
• The journal it is published in pitches it in press releases discussing "Scientists find new genetic links to male-pattern baldness." The press release, already by nature dumbed-down, probably over-sells anything in the paper in order to get those journalists to notice it. As such, it probably already has introduced errors or other misrepresentations of the source material.
• Journalists [who don't understand and haven't read the paper] write about it based entirely on the press release, while probably interjecting their own errors and misrepresentations because they either didn't understand it or want to make the story more "sexy".
• Headline writers [not the journalist] create a headline that's even "sexier" than the story warrants in order to make you want to click on it, often times creating a headline that bears little resemblance to the meat of the story.
• Your average reader sees the headline and forms a judgement based on either the headline, or if [and this is rare IMHO] they clicked through, on the first paragraph of the story because they didn't read further.

But along the way, it's made a lot of money for the scientists [grants / tenure / academic positions], the journals [who charge an arm and a leg for subscriptions], the journalists [who suddenly are "respected science journalists" despite not studying science since 10th grade biology], and the media [who sell ads that don't give a crap if you read the story, just whether you click on it]. 

Hmmmm... I guess I'm definitely a cynic, huh?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 01, 2019, 08:00:23 PM

:57:

Well done, Bwarb!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on July 01, 2019, 09:18:05 PM

I gave an interview to a Barron's reporter recently.  He was pretty well informed on this rather obscure practice in our financial services  marketplace. 

  While he certainly had a POV he demonstrated his skills as a quality reporter.    I've read his work before it's pretty solid. I'll be curious to see if he shoots this topic straight. 

Often, however, the mistakes made are on not having a proper background in the subject, making half assed assumptions based on bias.  It's very irritating to talk to reporters who operate this way.  They've already written the story before they source a single thing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 01, 2019, 09:44:51 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on July 01, 2019, 09:18:05 PM

I gave an interview to a Barron's reporter recently.  He was pretty well informed on this rather obscure practice in our financial services  marketplace.

  While he certainly had a POV he demonstrated his skills as a quality reporter.    I've read his work before it's pretty solid. I'll be curious to see if he shoots this topic straight.

Often, however, the mistakes made are on not having a proper background in the subject, making half assed assumptions based on bias.  It's very irritating to talk to reporters who operate this way.  They've already written the story before they source a single thing.

I long ago learned that 95% of what I read about the armed forces from non-military reporters is going to be full of mistakes.  The reporter won't know a fighter from a bomber, a tank from a self-propelled howitzer or infantry fighting vehicle, a howitzer from a mortar, a semiautomatic rifle from a machine-gun, an officer from an NCO, standing at attention from standing at parade rest, an attack helicopter from a scout helicopter, a squad from a squadron, strategy from tactics, military training from military education, etc.

But that doesn't stop them from reporting on these things as if they do know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 01, 2019, 10:18:29 PM

I definitely just ignore news sites that I have read a bad story or two from. Generally, I tend to ignore the national sources that try to cover everything. The problem is that's what the average American reads / watches / listens to, and those sites / channels / radio stations tend to be particularly politicized.

I'll readily admit I don't know much about the science behind climate change, but the experts say it's happening, and from what I can tell, I think it is, too, with the rise of natural disasters throughout much of the world. Even if there isn't climate change, I'd argue it still makes sense (or will in the near future) on economics alone to transition to a primarily renewably powered grid and electrify (or otherwise decarbonize with alternative fuels like hydrogen) most sources of energy demand (transportation and heating in particular).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2019, 10:23:41 PM

don't believe everything you read on Facebook

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 01, 2019, 10:47:38 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 01, 2019, 10:23:41 PM

don't believe everything you read on Facebook

I'm not sure I would believe anything from Facebook at this point, though I only base that on what I've heard, since I quit it back around the time I graduated from college, and obviously it's gone downhill.... Even some of the stuff I see on LinkedIn is occasionally wrong or misleading at best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 07:09:17 AM

I'd opine any time a news article appears on a topic about which I think I know something (which is rare) it's messed up.

Humans often form their opinion and then look for justification somewhere else and claim anything contrary is fake.

I don't think Facebook is particularly worse, it's just filling up with political opinions and memes.  Those make some people angry and confirm what others believe.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 02, 2019, 07:11:39 AM

(https://i0.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2019/07/Marquette-Michigan-v3-v4-動画.gif?resize=580%2C518&ssl=1) (https://i0.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2019/07/Marquette-Michigan-v3-v4-動画.gif?ssl=1)


NASA fudges data

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/07/the-magic-wand-of-fudging-produces-global-warming.php

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 08:15:43 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 01, 2019, 10:18:29 PM

...with the rise of natural disasters throughout much of the world...

Many of which are not natural, but rather, man-made disasters.


Climate is definitely changing though. Always has, always will.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 08:53:04 AM

The correlation with major weather events and climate change is a bit sketchy from what I can discern.  For example, the oft cited hurricane thing is contradicted by the ACE measurements year over year (Accumulated Cyclonic Energy), though hurricanes may be moving slower now and dropping more water over a specific area.  Strength and frequency are not up.

I can't make much of drought and flood information either.  We experience those "routinely", perhaps now it's more frequent, hard to tell.  Last year here was a fairly cool summer and this year has already been pretty hot, hotter than the highest T last year.  Does that mean anything?  It's weather.

We are about to need some rain.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 02, 2019, 12:16:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 08:53:04 AM

We are about to need some rain. 

You're welcome to collect our excess from last month and take it home with you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 12:25:17 PM

We often get a nice thunderstorm with 20 minutes of rain around 5 PM.  It has been not that humid of late so that has not happened.  Today is pretty hot and dry.  I went out by the pool just to walk around after visiting the gym.  Full sun, it's hot.

Things are not parched but they are starting to be dry.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 12:43:57 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 02, 2019, 12:16:52 PM

You're welcome to collect our excess from last month and take it home with you.

If rivers had no levees, there would be no "excess" to worry about.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 12:48:57 PM

I would build more levees and levy a tax to pay for them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2019, 12:49:17 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 12:43:57 PM

If rivers had no levees, there would be no "excess" to worry about.

I don't think he's talking about excess collected in reservoir lakes, but rather excess that was well above historical averages and caused a lot of flooding issues.  Happened all through northern Texas and Oklahoma over the past 4-6 weeks.  They also had a lot of severe weather including tornadoes.

Not that any of that is particularly unusual for that part of the country, but this stormy season I believe was definitely above historical norms.  It's been unseasonably wet and cooler than historical averages down here in Central Texico as well, though I'm certainly not complaining.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 12:52:54 PM

High water levels in rivers can have a profound effect on groundwater levels in surrounding properties. When groundwater levels are high (reduced storage), you can always expect increased runoff and surface ponding of "excess" water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 12:56:31 PM

Didn't some areas flood with no levies?

We have none here and at times things do flood.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2019, 12:57:31 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 12:52:54 PM

High water levels in rivers can have a profound effect on groundwater levels in surrounding properties. When groundwater levels are high (reduced storage), you can always expect increased runoff and surface ponding of "excess" water.

I'll take your word for it.

But again, I don't think he's talking about increased runoff.  I believe he's just talking about greater than normal rainfall and severe weather.  It's been bad for the past couple of months, really bad.

And I don't know about his part of the country, but it would take decades of excessive rainfall in my area, to raise the groundwater levels to the point where they'd impact flash flood storage capability.

Although lake levels in CenTex are up to "full" for the most part, the aquifers are still exceedingly dry.  We've severely overtaxed our water supply in Central Texas. One of the reasons I'll likely be moving once the kids graduate high school.  This area really can't tolerate the prolonged growth, it WILL run out of water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 01:00:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 12:56:31 PM

Didn't some areas flood with no levies?

We have none here and at times things do flood.

Certainly. Natural floodplain, ummm, floods.

Many of the problems we see today are the result of man-made structures or unmitigated land development (no detention/retention ponds, for example).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 01:06:25 PM

We just have parking lots, I doubt they have any impact.

Is there a difference between a plain flood and a complicated flood?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 01:09:37 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2019, 12:57:31 PM

But again, I don't think he's talking about increased runoff.  I believe he's just talking about greater than normal rainfall and severe weather.  It's been bad for the past couple of months, really bad.

He probably is, but there is a new normal. The Illinois State Water Survey just published an update to its frequency analyses that were performed in the 1980's and early 1990's. Taking the last 30 years into account has greatly increased the predictive values for rainfall events here. I imagine other states will follow suit eventually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 01:10:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 01:06:25 PM

We just have parking lots, I doubt they have any impact.

They certainly do, if detention storage was not provided as compensation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2019, 01:19:09 PM

I marvel at the engineering it takes to make an urban area work even some of the time.  We walk around a lot and enjoy watching construction jobs happening and seeing just how much is involved in planning and no doubt jury rigging/problem solving along the way.  There is one just getting off the ground that is an entire city block and it's fascinating to me, and I had not even pondered what they do with the rain which now will fall on roof tops.

We don't have that many streams of any size (until you get 3-4 miles out).  The urban area in on a divide, a crest between the Gulf and Atlantic.  I'm sure that provides some elevation change that is helpful.  And the ground is largely granite 5 feet down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 02, 2019, 01:32:49 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 01:10:35 PM

They certainly do, if detention storage was not provided as compensation.

Beat me to it,An old friends mother has a home behind a few small business buildings - that were built in the '70s long after the home.Well the drains weren't piped properly nor was the parking lot graded/leveled properly.They have had flooding because of the civil/business planning incompetence.He's installed some high end pumps but still those idjits should have to pay the piper

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 03:16:31 PM

It's a real problem in many areas.

Stormwater management regulations were non-existent in most places until the mid-late 1980's. Even with the ones who started implanting earlier (late 1960's for some), it was not nearly enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 02, 2019, 05:10:47 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 07, 2019, 01:23:02 PM

If they can magically turn profitable, then it's fine. But given the hole they dug in Q1, and the fact that Q2 isn't projected to be profitable, Elon Musk will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat in order for this relatively modest capital raise. Because even his promises (Model Y and robotaxis) aren't likely to materialize until mid-2020 at best.

We'll see, though. Supposedly they're still guiding for 90-100K deliveries this quarter. If they manage to hit that, it suggests that Q1 was a blip. If they manage to be at least CLOSE to profitability, even if they end up with a loss, it suggests that Q1 was a blip.

But as I said, I've been getting into this soap opera, and it's a company that seems to be ever desperate in their actions to try to stay afloat.

Tesla breaks their Q4'18 record, reporting over 95K deliveries. I will say that I did not see that coming.

Next step is their quarterly earnings statement, due in about a month. If they can show good FCF and at least avoid a *big* loss (i.e. losing no more than $200M), it's bullish. If their ASP / product mix (and leasing) cuts hard into FCF or they generate big losses, it's bearish. 

As they say in the soap opera world, To Be Continued...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 02, 2019, 06:48:03 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2019, 12:57:31 PM

I'll take your word for it.

But again, I don't think he's talking about increased runoff.  I believe he's just talking about greater than normal rainfall and severe weather.  It's been bad for the past couple of months, really bad.

And I don't know about his part of the country, but it would take decades of excessive rainfall in my area, to raise the groundwater levels to the point where they'd impact flash flood storage capability.

Although lake levels in CenTex are up to "full" for the most part, the aquifers are still exceedingly dry.  We've severely overtaxed our water supply in Central Texas. One of the reasons I'll likely be moving once the kids graduate high school.  This area really can't tolerate the prolonged growth, it WILL run out of water.

In general, I was indeed referring to the 6 weeks of nearly daily rainfall, some of it quite heavy.  To the point that I believe we have already received our average annual rainfall.

But the lakes did fill, the dams had to release water at record rates, in some cases the water overflowed the dams, the rivers were swollen and overflowed their banks in many places, and in other places levees kept the low-lying land from flooding.  The levees along the Arkansas River just just west of the Tulsa city limits had been built in the '40s, and not updated or upgraded since.  There had been dire warnings that they would not hold if there were a long period of heavy rainfall.  In some cases, the water overflowed them, but, to about the 99 and 44/100ths% level, they did hold.

Here's a pic of a series of bridges southwest of downtown Tulsa (looking northeast).  From l. to r., the are the BNSC RR bridge, two bridges for I-244, the now inactive Cyrus Avery Rte 66 bridge, and the Southwest Blvd. bridge.  The Arkansas River is nearly twice its normal width, and probably 15 feet higher than normal.

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/tulsaworld.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/4/9c/49c3d7b4-0250-5130-844b-11dc4d927e92/5cedb005277d2.image.jpg?resize=400%2C275)

50+ highway miles downstream, where the Neosho River (maybe 15 miles downstream of the Fort Gibson Dam) flows into the Arkansas near the small city of Fort Gibson, there was this.

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2019/05/28/us/28OKLAHOMA-street/merlin_155528787_996bfbde-a167-4a99-b1ce-88469462685e-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2019, 08:23:48 PM

Mother Nature wants her floodplain (natural storage) back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 02, 2019, 08:54:38 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 02, 2019, 05:10:47 PM

Tesla breaks their Q4'18 record, reporting over 95K deliveries. I will say that I did not see that coming.

Next step is their quarterly earnings statement, due in about a month. If they can show good FCF and at least avoid a *big* loss (i.e. losing no more than $200M), it's bullish. If their ASP / product mix (and leasing) cuts hard into FCF or they generate big losses, it's bearish.

As they say in the soap opera world, To Be Continued...

I feel like Tesla is ping ponging on purpose (wham and lull; wham and lull). First they piqued public interest with strong PR and once they started the manufacturing it feels like it's been good then bad announcements in a long unbroken sequence. Maybe that's something that's happening to them, not intentional, but it feels more like they are in control and that discontinuous supply has somehow helped with their process and/or has a net positive effect on the market, investors, Wall Street, whatever (that these highs are higher than the lows are low ... and they don't have the option for all highs). I know this is inconsistent with their overoptimistic forecasts on bad quarters. One explanation would be that those rosy forecasts are lies and Tesla doesn't care that they won't come close.

/gutfeel

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2019, 06:03:12 AM

For me, two factors more important than the various metrics suggest are wind speed in winter and humidity in summer.  I'd opine that windy and 25°F feels colder to me than calm and 5°F, and 80% RH at 85°F feels hotter than 25% at 95°F.  

I've been in LV when it was routinely around 115°F and that obviously is oven hot, or feels like it, no matter the low RH.  These "feels like" temperatures they report on the weather are not correct it seems to me.

Lately around here it has been nice in the shade, a nice breeze, low RH, but hot like 93°F, but quite hot in the sun (duh).  We were at the pool yesterday and the sun went behind a cloud (I guess the cloud moved in front of the sun) and it felt like a 20°F drop.

I don't understand folks who use sunscreen and then lie out to get tanned.  I don't get spending time lying out basking in UV radiation in general.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2019, 06:20:06 AM

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26252 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26252)

(https://i.imgur.com/87WgWoq.png)

If this is correct, the situation is beyond our control.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 03, 2019, 07:09:35 AM

Didn't have Russia pegged as being a bigger violator.Just based on the amount of business China does with the U.S.,Evidently the Rooskies are modernizing - or building up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 03, 2019, 07:15:29 AM

So, if "we" could just get rid of the Middle East, China, and Russia "we" would be all good then?

Let's do it!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 03, 2019, 07:26:02 AM

The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is rising at a steady rate.  What I don't buy is that humanity is the primary cause of that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 03, 2019, 07:53:59 AM

What do you think is a more likely cause of that?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2019, 08:01:07 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on July 03, 2019, 07:26:02 AM

The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is rising at a steady rate.  What I don't buy is that humanity is the primary cause of that.

The evidence that burning fossil fuels is the primary cause of this is quite clear based on isotopic analysis of the CO2.  The amount produced by say volcanoes is comparatively so small as to be irrelevant.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 03, 2019, 11:29:40 AM

I was getting there but planned to do it in parts:

Step 1:

What do you think is a more likely cause of that?

Step 2:

If you were studying this CO2 rise and hoped to make conclusions about the mystery cause, what kind of evidence do you think you'd look for?

Step 3:

What evidence would it take to dismiss or embrace the idea that this is caused by man?

Step 4:

In which ways do you consider the isotopic carbon record unconvincing?

Step 5:

Do you consider that record minorly or majorly unconvincing - why?

Step 6:

What next experiment can you imagine? As before, the goal should be to select one that could conceivably change your mind if the experiment were performed and the result were the opposite of what your hypothesis predicts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 03, 2019, 02:30:26 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 03, 2019, 06:20:06 AM

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26252 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26252)

(https://i.imgur.com/87WgWoq.png)

If this is correct, the situation is beyond our control.

I know I've said this before, but while the EIA is good at reporting historical data, it is quite bad at making projections, and I suspect their international ones are even worse..... Furthermore, this projection is at least 5 years old (it lists 2015 as a projected year, and 2012 is the only historical labeled year). As it is, their latest chart shows that they are now projecting slower growth in emissions with <40B MTs in 2040: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=environment_outlook_for_emissions (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=environment_outlook_for_emissions)

China & India are making significant investment in renewables and have largely suspended investment in new coal plants, though they probably won't retire them nearly as fast as the US and other developed countries are. China & India are also electrifying their transportation sector much faster than most countries.

To be sure, nobody is projecting emissions to peak before 2050, even though that's probably what needs to happen. My point is just that emissions won't be increasing as fast as many projections considering past projections (especially from governmental agencies) have overestimated what emission levels would be today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 03, 2019, 02:47:46 PM

Quote from: Temp430 on July 03, 2019, 07:26:02 AM

The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is rising at a steady rate.  What I don't buy is that humanity is the primary cause of that.

I used to think that but I'm convinced it all the fookin' trees getting cut along with industrial build up.Farms & forrests have practically disappeared in N.E.Ohio replaced by commercial/residential "Progress"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 03, 2019, 02:49:49 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 03, 2019, 08:01:07 AM

The evidence that burning fossil fuels is the primary cause of this is quite clear based on isotopic analysis of the CO2.  The amount produced by say volcanoes is comparatively so small as to be irrelevant. 

I've seen in print the exact opposite but you couldn't prove it either way by me - plant a tree

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 03, 2019, 03:12:20 PM

Photosynthesizers (plants, algae, etc.) have chloroplasts that selectively fix lighter isotopes of carbon. Therefore, the act of burning their remnants (logs or in this case fossil fuels) releases CO2 with a mass that is a neutron or two lighter than the CO2 coming from other sources, including volcanoes.

The industrial revolution really got going around 1850. This correlates both with the beginning of our CO2 climb and with the dilution of our Carbon-13 percentage in the atmosphere as Carbon-12 percentage has risen.

So we have a so-called diminishing "C13/C12 ratio" for atmospheric CO2. That's new to this period. How can we know that? Because even though we never bothered to detect atmospheric CO2 masses before the last few decades, nature had all the while been producing fixed and dated records, waiting for us to become keen to notice.

Specifically, this can be well dated by the carbon make-up of tree rings and corals. These are organisms that build durable structures which can be read, almost like consecutive pages of a historical record, where instead of alphabets and syntax we see the chemical make-up of the environment as it existed when those structures/layers were built.

The record for trees that are aged to hundreds of years or older show a very stable C13/C12 ratio prior to ~1850. And then a sudden, consistent shift with C13/C12 lowering ever since. Perhaps there are other explanations than mankind, but volcanoes at least don't fit the isotopic facts.

Meeeeeeeanwhile: even if a person rigidly denounces anthropogenic climate change despite the evidence, being good to the planet "just because" also happens to be responsible. It also fits all kinds of identities, whether you're a left-leaning übercrunchy hippie believing it because your healing crystals said so or a right-leaning evangelical aiming to be a good steward of god's creation. It's also a philosophy that keeps our oceans low in plastic, our cities low in smog, and our drinking water low in toxins. Even if you disagree on the cause, caring (even caring A LOT) isn't that controversial.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 03, 2019, 03:15:51 PM

I don't mind going Amish all this gadgetry and it's vast over pricing can hit the BLVD

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2019, 03:25:42 PM

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earthtalks-volcanoes-or-humans/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earthtalks-volcanoes-or-humans/)

This argument that human-caused carbon emissions are merely a drop in the bucket compared to greenhouse gases generated by volcanoes has been making its way around the rumor mill for years. And while it may sound plausible, the science just doesn’t back it up.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the world’s volcanoes, both on land and undersea, generate about 200 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually, while our automotive and industrial activities cause some 24 billion tons of CO2 emissions every year worldwide. Despite the arguments to the contrary, the facts speak for themselves: Greenhouse gas emissions from volcanoes comprise less than one percent of those generated by today’s human endeavors.



I've seen this multiple sites.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 03, 2019, 08:02:06 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 03, 2019, 03:15:51 PM

I don't mind going Amish all this gadgetry and it's vast over pricing can hit the BLVD

The area of the United States will not support 300 million people living like the Amish.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 04, 2019, 09:28:10 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 03, 2019, 02:47:46 PM

I used to think that but I'm convinced it all the fookin' trees getting cut along with industrial build up.Farms & forrests have practically disappeared in N.E.Ohio replaced by commercial/residential "Progress"

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qy0tIjdlrdsfcuKempZTJPBOwM%2F8ZPtfFZzy%2FBrDH8j9FL6oW53JGExXSPj5bPe7AxzKIvaccbe1s4pyJokrg143Znc%2FiuLTqSKaFw8MPJ7lbS3uax4yNtAOVlHe1JEW8nOG3ktE%2BQN1BmwjYTnucLOXbcXXhxzygk5a6PZSKOhiaWOAzvyJVRbpneFTPPukYz59lo4on%2BAHRnfOV5V1ccmljJbaO4U5hlhaQRg7Kui4TpbdBOaclpf%2FM7OFMoasxEa%2BfJS7oZJKN0kZYdLSSHOwCtTuPPKXHL%2FABR1lr9XoGTNduNnHuFgOK%2BIPUoTRQPAfjoVspeI4pLHNTVTAyfHsgO1AjuvDuI6ttVcHvaMY2JzzXvxYbvbn587FbUyOllc5%2FMnO6ZSkknJSLsjjpEiUpEAhGEKhOqEqEQiEIQIhB3QUAk6o6IQCVIlQIhLjZCBEunshdtfpCDj4oQjCAwlSApUEiic91RHG0nDnAYXqkNJDHG1zzyaNl5bbZBDWxSO5NOVtC6tqbaaoOczUdLfNcfyZbY7fjXUq7eA%2FLmtw0dVn6%2BXU5zWlNNmrGR%2BGSfM5XJjeGanncrywx09Msts5VnD3BwUbIVldGguBaN%2FJQxTPIzhdcvTls7bnjFmqxtd20%2FivPyvRuKW6uHneQ%2FNecu5rprmgCnUThHWBxOMYUEKXGP7QR3Cyrm5NDap%2BDnJyoqmXNuJwSNy0ZUNQCChKEAEHklCMZVAN1004SBCCdKA%2BnYQFJsUbW3GIkqsbI4DSOSn2pw9epz%2FAJg%2FFS1YteL2GOtt%2BOboyPmkm4frRDrdJDyzjUf%2BE7x7lslueNiGHB%2B1VQuVdLSnVPIcEbrGW76NQ62WS2UjnayJ5MtGDyaqPJmlJeTvk5Up83rNSGzzFsY2LsZwuZIIoi50U7JQc8gQQrBIoqWufAHw0znx9HAJqUVdI%2FxJIQB2eMhXljvtJR0LaecvDm5zgbKDdLnTVplDWOGRhpKxN7elytisdMaiR8smkOJzhowEhOQB0ThpmxQglxJPJMtBK9LNMOXHB2Q9znnfmnoGB0vtckssYjexw232IREeOnnkcRHE9x8gkbDM4kNY4kdgnaiZ%2FjOLZJMHfJOCUy2V7fdc4faqHBS1JOBDJ9y7koauI4lgkaSM7hNiplx%2FFf8A%2B4pXVUrvelkPxcUEmG21rmte2mk0nk7GyvqC31zIBrppGkk5y1ZyKtnbgGaXSOgeVpaCvjfASa1%2Bvqw5IPwXlyb09MPYBkY8xvaQeymUcRc5waSZHDGPJRXkMaZtJkI5ZKcoahzJ2R6gJJMj71z2OiLWOUGpha3cNGcq%2ByPAeZNsjc%2BXVVNDb3mYPbza0qVTwzV0jwHFoOAPLuvK17Y4pdqqXTU7mgAMbJqBxy2wtnb5WijY5ztlgLhObPI2j3y46y7GMhXlluccwZEX5zyCzcXthdJHGt2rLVbvW7a1gAcAS5uV5lcOIrhc5A%2BtqpHtB9wOw37l6JxqJHcOTtaNQLm%2FiF5rX2OahibNK4NDhktPRdHD46c3yLl9FZXeNWDQ90cbjgZPIKyrYqKoAE7aeXAwHAYPyWTdK1hAEjSM9OiketUnWd%2BfJhXT4uK2pdRa7WT7Bew%2BT8hcM4bZNHrgmc8Zxp2yFFbJFOdEco25E%2BySnWTTUmwmwD2Kobl4bqmHbOPNqgVdtnpmtc7S4H%2BXOR8VcOr5iNTawZ7FyixXN7HkyzNOD1bqykopSCDggj4pCpVyqjW1ck7gAXHk0YCirSEQlQgTCEqRECQrpIgQI6pQkQKgoQUAOSMICEAhAQihCVIgRKEIQSKKITVUUWoN1OAJPReiVBpmQNb62wRxNw1ndeatcWuDgdwtNSCOWFk2nJx3XNz4b1XVwZali7bNEYtbh7XRV9XKXN9lK3xJXbtw0Dmmahwaw%2BRXlMe3rlUGRg5uTXitG2Ek0uVGJJK95Hha9A4jYDw%2FUY6B34rzRw3XqXEEebHWjHLWvLXc11VyQg5qdCP7S3n7oPyUHqp0ZLZmb7Fo%2FBZU9fI9M2eoJ%2F5VUra6jLn%2FABafkqrogQhKEoQgAlCsbBQw19e2OoqqWmjAyX1LiGfDZPXWgpKV72xTGV2dnRDMR%2BBWdrpUoQRgpwN5FaRzpI3Ck206a6Ej%2BcfimcZ2T1G3FTE4dHD8VlrTRekH%2BHbj9V34rP00jWUcrXZ1OxgLRcf%2FAN1triM%2B8smX%2FujjbfkiOGM1ZONzvlSqF4EdS0loJjI3UeOUQyMc5geBvgpqeTxJnyABocScDog6Z1CQDJ3IC0disVNW0LKiWR4JJGAq%2B70UVFUtbESQd91mZTa6cStPhDAzgc1DBITr6hzmadk1jZbyu0hWO0u8ksry93w5LgoacPBPQqAnilaxr3sIbnAJCYV3X3L1yi9VYwu0uBGG7%2F8AKpzG9p9pjh8Qg5Qugx2ORUqkoTP7TnaGfiqqK3mFe0FL4UIc8DWfknKegp4gCxup3dylclNbN6M63NbpyeaKU4uLZJR7pTugOC78Ru5nYScYDmrGWDeObYWW8Q%2F3Sb2ZZDpYXclr7dbImUoexgc7mSvIBUtdFpkbrAHsnq1XPDvGNxsuY9qmncd2SE5HwK57wX6dWHyJL223FdoiuVF4g9iohaS09%2FJY2x0NbMDUl3q8UXOR%2FwCGFtaPjnh2Zmusp6iKXG%2Fs6hlU%2FEXFlqqWxw22iL2MdqcZRjUfgmPHn6r0y5sPcP0tXNWD1VwbUBpBcWDYYPVZ7j2nfVys9VixIwe23OCpfAFwnpOIfCjj1iUZLQM7dVrPSVZhHZ4LtDFokZIWSj6ruWfgfxTHHx5NOfPk8sXg09FVMcS%2BCQD%2FAElRSN1tDJqPNMVVJT1vsSAMfp9lwC63LtkVsOB6O3V1Q79pxCWFjdxnBOVmK6kko5zFKPge4XFNVTUr9cLy0kYPmscmNyx1Hrx5THLdbP0icJ22zNgrbHUOlpptpISdZgPQFw237HdYUjBWp4Y4rntckkUzWTUsw0SwyDLXtPRSuIuGaOqpzdeFnOmptOqekO8kHw%2Fmb5qY7x6rFu7ti%2BiTolxhIvVCISpEQIQhFCRKkwiBCAlQIgISgIpEqEIEQlCXCiuUqXCEHKVLhGENEV5YHF8bmE7NOQqNaLhu2PqWOnbII2DbPdYz7jeF8atHPDIzkhVNZO1zMNOSu7u6KOTRDUGVo2LsYyVBEZwD3Xljj9vW579OOaUMceQKdZESdwpjYTpGFraSPQr5Bm13Adi78F4%2BV7bc4i6juA75%2FBeKSDDsLp%2BnJHHRTGD24f8ASoimNH8A%2FV%2FMqKsOIqOSkn8ORzXEsYctORyVGFa3ojMYBJzG07%2FBVSAKRdBpcU6ymc92kuaO5J5JVgpJ%2FV5NYa1xwRhwyEjXuyQ5xwemdlIjt7C8g1UIbn3iea7qGUjIgyIPMg95xcCD8FjbXj0guxnZOxnLMJo4XbHAc1tl2BgZT1Kf3zPimdTS3Ypyk%2FjNWVjTcej%2FALZbXebvwWOdtG0ea2fHIzZLe4dHn8FjH8mfBEcy%2FR%2BCb6pybk34JpUSoKueNgZHNI1nYOwFzrc8kvcXHzOU3Gu2dVNKXouwMrhdgqDuKNr5AHcklRCIyMdUsbg1%2B4RPL4haMbBUcwCZkmYiWO6EHCH1NQ53tyvJ83ZTj526wR2wo793EjqinGTSlwHiO%2B9bO3cHXiroG1cQhaxzdQD3nJ%2BSyNvhM9ZDE3m9waF9H2GmaygjixkBgauX5HNePWnRw8UzlteFx%2BIxzo5m6ZGHBAXZ2W29IPCslDObnSMJgecSgfRPdYt2C07%2FAAXRxZ%2BeO3hyYeN0Qctk1K45wR9qQvcMFrSRhej8NTW6s4fZHV0LHtaNLvYGT9q1ldGGHl083GCNiu4WZJVleoLWyrfHbnysIOCx4yB9qWW1Rw0IqaetZM7IzG0YwkpcdIWh6Rjva0u2K1nBlttd2jnirg8TNPskPxhV1zsbYL4Lc%2BoYxrnexO7kB3Ty70eF1tc%2BjVgfxPAW%2B%2BI3gea9S4kpRcLBX0J5yRHR%2FqG4XmnDdlq7LxRSEzxOdCdTsZGth2OPsK9fkha6UNfnB5Lw5P2ljUmpqvmQkxuwdiCujKfEY491bcY202viSvpCPZbKXM%2BB3Col0Tt5HrhAKyndG8DxGDLHLKPaWuLSMEc1r2O2a89Niqq9U0XqkdSxoa8v0ux1QUStLLeam11DZIZHDB6FVpXKlm1besttBxPCaq2aKe54y6Dkyb4dnfisXUU8tNM%2BGeN0cjDhzHDBCdo6yaklEkLiCCtcyei4sgbBW%2Fua9o%2Fd1LRk%2FB3cLHeNGHwgq5unDd0tlP6zUUzjS6ywTs9puR59FTrcu0IkXSRVSISoAQIhGEuECYQukmECIC70LpkTnvDGNJcTgADcqLo31S4Uqrt1XRCN1VTyRCQZYXjGoKOB3UWEwjC7AC6Dco1o2Go05T4j8l2yPByptfE0yFoGqT7ApkFZJBA6KP2Q7mVHfnKFL2zZornajknKs4oi6nZJp2VXyBK0VnqYpaVsEhAe35rGfUb4%2FaJCwukxjZTvDA2Us07G7twEwRv7wXl5be2npFWMw1zcc2heG1DcSvHZxXu1Q32qxv1AvDrgNNXM3tI4fNd0cKJ1Uxv8OnPkR81EUxv8Cn%2BLvxQOXY58E%2FUCr1Y3IfuoD9RV3VQKDjplJlBRhUCUjA5pMI5KA5rvQhgyd04VKscaQE9TZEmeyaJT1OdiVFavjFurhqicekg%2FBYt3vAdgtxxT7fCdK7tIz8Fh3byH4Kobl6JtdyclwqO404z6SaZzTjOZUqul03quSu2rI5cldo20rqOIzShmQB5pZ4TE7yQMtJDsjml3JynhFFqcWPy3Tnfv2XMUZfgDml6bk2vuBqT1niCnyMtjy8%2FYvoKzgeEwLyvgOwVdtiFbWU74vWWgxaxjLe69TtTtmjC%2BV8jOZcjv4sNcdWtTTQ1dM%2BCdgfG8YcD1XjHHfB01gqGVlMTJQOfserCehXtjDsqjjCBlVwxcY3jOIS4fEbr24c%2FGubKbmnz0wnW5g6Fb70d3CnEkluqmNJl3jLhnfsvPoHa5Xu77K74ekEF6o5HP0gSjc9F9DLuPDjvjk1V%2B9H9RWXOWopZYY45Dnc4wqCr4ZrbO5sxlEoY8agGnGMr0Diu%2By2q3tmpHNkc4ge03uvPZrze7s5zGeNIw%2B82Nmy88bXRyTCX%2FAFqJDb7XCy4No3wz6R4jRs147gd1R8UVVDcmw1lHI9xafajf7zQtdY2G%2BcLOpqpgMmksyWdR591i5eELzRtkmdABDGC4nWOQVlm%2B0zl11Gro6iadltrqpviQAeH47Dgta7bDvtxuvVaYiSlidzOkbr5wZXVUkDacVEvgt%2Fww8hv3L3L0e1j6zhinMrtUkRMbiT2UyxeOWflGa9KnDbK9gudMz%2B0tbpfj6QC8fLNyDsR0K%2BieM6J9VbNLJ3wN1jU9nMBeXXPgJ8kM0tsqTM4f4bhgn7VcMtdVfC5Y7jFuB8EtHMo4gtFVDw3SXI%2F3aWcxgY6gc%2FxUqyWmtuNxitrI3GfVh2R7o6kr1jjuxRv9H01DTRgmkjbIwAcy3mfxWeXkmJhhv2%2BcSFyQnZG4KbK9YxY5IwrG1V7aJr9vaJGCq8pMbojdWTiItFXG4ukpqgYmizkPHbB2z2KZu%2FB0M1F%2B0OGp5KqED97TyY8SP7uYWQgmfBIHxnB%2FFa7hyurtRq7Y2YPiGZNDSRjz8l55TXcWMY5haSHAgjmFyvSrjaLdxZG6ehbHR3cDL4sYbKe%2FxXntZST0VQ%2BnqonRSsOC1wwrjnKaR0iXCVeiOV0BlAC0XBNvtdx4gpqa91BgonH23ggfZk8kGe0Ec1NoLVV10NRNTRhzKZmuU5A0hen8RcI0tt45oaaw0jn0c0TXOJaXtaD1yVP4Z9H4tPEFRDc54ZaScOjZCHFpeOhXnlyY4%2B3pjx5ZTpmaXgKhf6P38ROuJdVD2vAbgNAzjB65V5W2KmrbZbrnwhamMgMXgzRy7P1kbuydz8VqOHaCz2GartcUFQWyt9p7xra455ZOwUthqoIKiCo8EQud%2B7MYw5o7Lmz%2BXNfi6MPi3fbM3z0d%2FtO2W5%2Fr00LIoiHNedYDzz0%2BS8mv9nqLJcZKKp3czk4cnDuvdKeelttFofXAQtJdiWfVj4LyDj28QXq%2BOnpTmJjQxrv5sdV5cHyM%2BTk9dPXm4MePD%2FWZA3UqCLUmm7lWtria%2BVoPLK7M8tTbw48d3T0T0eejenvdCbjdnSCAktjjYcF3mSqj0i8G0%2FDc0Zoy8xSE6Q45K9y4PgipuG6CKEgtEQOR1Kxnpn8FtBRveMuEhx9y4uWZYeOcvt6cWe%2BS8d9dvApGEE5TeDhXVS%2BGoe2N0YZnclV9TAad%2BknORkLtl258p2ivGwb3SlzmEFpII7IJzJ5BJKtMOzcKrl4z8fFMmeUnJkd%2F7k25c6grqHlX0FOP7RUDvF%2Ba8QvTNN0qm%2F5rvxXuc4%2Ftrh3iK8U4jbpvVWP8wr1jyVCtrWyOQQiVupoc7bPwVURurO2HEcZ7SFSjRVho2WyaNtDCXGMjU4ElvmFieq2FUM00o7sKx6kCEpUiFQJUiEDzRgLrGyGHI%2BxBHZStQ24KTGwsiz3TQbqOE%2BNJZo9rYbZQa6%2FDXwXCexjKwrd5HLf12H8EfBjCPvCwlOMulJ6BRUeVNJ2Xl9qaViO405H7xTcadj5lKArphSE7fBdNGyyHIXBsmTslnk1gNH3pl2yAikA3Ws9HtojvXEdHSTfw3Py74DdZXqtHwNeBZOIaKsf%2FAA2Se3%2FpOxXnyentxe3vHFWBdIIm8o4xsnKH2cKBX1kVzujqimeJISG6HDqMKwpW4wvlctl5Lp9Hix1xSVbxnICiX1odZK8E4Bp3%2FgpEJ9lVXGlWKLha4zH%2FAMJaPidl7cfuOPKPnWN2h3PAU6lqYoamKUu1aHh2Aq5jQTzH2qQzLe32L6jk%2B3ps3HFofTMaKV8rtO4Mew%2B0rmPih0dK%2BupLTN6q12lzxs0EjkmeDY7RWwU8XqoiqqgiHMwPhvIzkh35fBaDiWR%2FD1dQvrmRVdnLQ2eniGkMf%2FNp7cufmvLXb1vNkzVn4krIJZ3U1sfLDK7xAwBx09yrO6cW1lNC6KsskkAkBbiVpbnbzCm%2F9ZWWmpDTuEsmjMTWxNADotWppB7jZVfFHFtPxVRxUcdDKKhjsxPc4AefyWtRn%2BXORkLZb5bjWthgABO%2B5A2XunA1qitVihET3OM7RI%2FJ21cjheCxz%2BG%2FLSWuHUFeseim4yT0skMskrtBw0PmGAD2aVrKdPNvK%2BmbWUU1M%2FlIwtz2XgdXfbrHUy0ck5jkheWHSME4OF9CheBekqi9R4srXsbpY94fkDb2gCfzU1Fxys9Nf6OzC2nfMWN8eRx1vPvH7Vt5o2zwvieMse0tI8ivLuB6wxN57OcvT6WQSRggrk5f2dmvwmT5i4ttEllvlXRSNxoedPm08iqMhez%2BnCx6oqW8xN3b%2B5mx2%2BifxC8acMFdHDlvFz8k1TZSckpSL1eYytPwVxlcOEqqSSi0PilwJoZBkPA%2FBZhAKlm4PanW53HdIy%2B8PQ0lHUMz40Am9vUOvLAVJXspbu11r4iiNNcYvZjqdO%2BfNYC1XevtM%2FjW6rlp5Oro3Yz8e69ftEvDXpApfCYySjvoj1PyS7WQOeeq4M5lwd%2B49prOdvI77Yqyy1HhVTMsd7krd2vHkqteqVMFZbQbVxJQvkpXnDHOG48wVjL3w5JSyzS20vqqSPdzg3eLycuri5ZnNx55Y6qgAXrHA3BUJ4cjvVXQmqmkJdCxx9nA5Lz2y2h9bMx8%2BY6bPtPxuR5ea%2BjLA%2Bmt9sp7dTyCaiMX7l46t%2F57rHyb%2BHt68E%2FLaBWVU1RR041G3yxhrXZIdnH5JKmOOuqGSV2madvuvPT4Jy5siaHeMWCJu%2BpxwFi7vxzZrdUZg11czRjEWzR9q%2BT5cnLbI%2BrMePDGVuzE1jMl2cLAekfidlFTG30cuamQYeW%2FQb%2Fys3d%2FSZcqtjo6KFlK07as6nLE1FRLUSulmeXvcclzjuV1cHxMvLefpzcvysdax7oL3OJyeaQZTYXQK%2BlJpweVvs407qZTzFh2KgtKca5SzbeN09i9HfpCit0Yt92mLaf%2FAA5Dvo8vgovpY4nors2mgop2TCMlxLDsvLBIR1XRcS3C5L8becy36e8zkvlrtNhcyZ%2Fhy83DAKYrC90mHfQGlcUJ%2FtkWf5gpF31R1UoALWk5C6nNkrAcuKVwykZ1KUlaYMSJrCekCbwtI%2Bipx%2FbYz3jcPwXivFzdF%2Bq%2F9a9rmP7%2BmPdpHyXjfG7NPEFR54XpHmzx5qdRE%2BrO8nqC7mptF%2Fd5PIhSi1qnO%2FZYdqOckLN8lo6j2rOfJ35LOpAmUJcJCgEIA2Qg7a7BCdBGU0GHGcEjugbKVqVZ26KKUvMmNuQyps0UIgJDWgjkqeF2BnqpPiZGFNK107geCnY5eGPxWOs1OKmeSMuDQWncrWHfgmX%2FAEfmsnaZ2QSPc5ocXNwAThQqHXxthmkYwghrsAjqoifqsmRx7lMLUZds5pyP3iuGJxnvFRSu67LtvJcEYXTSgUML3Bo5okY6I4K7hIEgynatzSwDIJRUTUnInHIA6pnqplri8a4U8ZHvSNB%2B9Zy9N4e49y4ZOilhYeYY0fJamnOcLJWsmNwHRaakccAr4t%2FZ9jW8FzFs1Yr0v1Xg8LCEHeaZrfu3WygdqavMvTRXNMlvoM74dKR8h%2Ba6%2BHHeTgz628pDgDuNk417ejiuXNxySsa09F9JxVobFxC%2B30z6OoYZ6RzhI1oOHRyDk5p6La8N2mo9IIkrLndHMiikDHU8Y9rHTyXlrW4PNer%2Bi6J9PGLnRFzRGRDWU7vpjmHhZsI2Uno%2B4djt7ooqB7pA32X%2BIdZP4LyPieOqt1S231VC2lbCSWYbu8E8yeq%2BhYZ4pseG8OBbkEHmFkfSbZP2pQUkjGAeFMBJIG7tYdifsSI8OBbjIK9Psl9bw5wvaxV0cYkq5sxv1e1pDhuR0Wph9HfDcTGaaLMjW41l7jk98ZxlecekHhqos81JUvqKiqDiWgycm45DyVyvSx7kxwcwOHIjIXnHpVZRNfDHLE589UwgEDkRyK2nDFX69w%2FQ1BILnQgOx3Gx%2FBUfpBtRrTbKqOQMkgmxv1BXmT2844cY6KkZzDgd16XYKgviaD2Xm1smlZcaunqRpkZM7I%2B1byzO8OMELn5fb6XFN4aT%2BLbY28cPVtE4ZL4yW%2F6huF8vVMZilexww5pwR5r6qdWOc3TG3JXz56RrK%2B0cRT5biGoPixkct%2BY%2Bwpw56y08OTjsx7ZEpF0QuV2OUhSLpCqECl26vqbbVx1dFM%2BGeM5a9hwQoilUVDNVuPhjDG7ueeQWcpLO2pb9N%2FbOKuI%2BM547ZURw1T42l7CyMMdkbZJTlwgu3Dtzjbc4vV5JwPDm1amHuHd1I9FUFqobrNPPK7WIvYeXaQD1W%2FvVfa67hi41FQ%2BOpghYcHnv059V4STG6xjonHvHdYC60Gul9Yog3xA3VJTtbjSO7e7PgmuGuLBZonMuj3GFuXxY5td2A7Hks5aeI5qFvgy5fCDlhz7UR7tP5KxudsoL%2FEypZUspqlxA8XB8F%2Be%2F8pW7PqvGZavSs4z42rOJKk6R6vRj3IGH5lZRzjlSrpbqq2VLqetiLHjkeYcO4PUKGtYYY4zoyzuXsZRlIhbZdAroLgLoKLHQTjVw3dPwsyVmtw7FC55AA3V7X8LXO3WqG4VcHhwze5k7%2Farf0d2Bt3v9JFL%2FAAg8Of8AAbr170l2cVvDDxEAPAIfjyXJy8mc7x9R04zGZTHL7fN8LhDUMe4bA7qVfZWzPY9hyNOMrm4QeFI4HoosntQDy2XRjfKbePJj43RgckFIOSVejxNlpc8NHMnAUp9sdG4tdPECOYyob%2BaTOeaukfQhdqbRP%2Fmx%2BC8n9ILdN%2FkPdoXqcR1W%2B3SeTD94XmHpH%2F8AW892L0jzZEqwtntRzt8sqvKsbPu%2BRvcAKUWPO0yA%2FwAwWecN1omb2yYeazxGXYSDkJ%2BKnke3UyJzx3A2Cb0kLttRNG0tjke1p5gOVDYG5CRzUo5FGrZRTkbiInNycHmMpslSaJzRnLASSOasY4o%2FXHtLG4LOylEOKhmLGkAb7810yIxyuE%2BcAdO6kiujadJjOW7c1DkqBNM4gYyoNhHh3BdQByDDz%2BKxFK3Mjj2C29C0u4Mqs9WOWLoxvJ3wjSHP7zvimQn6n33%2FABTCrJyPmnG%2B%2BU3H7ycb75UUp6oHNKeqRvNB044SZzzQ4EkABBa5vMIrnqrbhdmu%2BUg7SZVSRhyuuESBfafPc%2Fgscn61vj%2FaPZqSPEbHK%2FpR7DVR0jwYowr6j5BfF%2B32d%2FgsIXYavCvSpcRWcXS6DlsDGxD7Nz8yvcp3CKB0h5NBJXzTfKj1y4VVRnJdO8%2FNd%2Fxp3twc36uYHtk9k7FLJGWbqva4tOQVNhqzs2UZHdd7hqVSU7qmSNrHD23Ac%2BWV7pYOBp7a0TU9e8eJG3IcMn714XA6MSB8MmlwOQvorgK%2FMutiphNPE6pjaGvAeMn7FmgbRXq31cdTGG1UbAWuZsCQUnEHEdvjs1ZHchNSyOic0RvYQXHB2BWoe9rAC44BOFjfSFJBDPan1EQlh8R3isxzZpw75Ep6Pav4V9IkFXBSUE1PNLWnEeWY9vbmj0uR1klnpjBE8tc8B5Azo674TI4RtlqtTr3DUjW17XxTR8msJx9%2BCr%2B03Saoppmzyx1MLYS4HG5GOqlWMVYOM62x2WOn9Wje1kxzqP0SBt9%2BVsbVxNaeLAKOSN0U49sMfyOOxXl1xq2Ojkp5G6XOf7BA805whcYLNfoausDzCxrtWgZPLspBbcR2K9UNznv1eKdtPJKGFsb8lo5NWhtNa3wBsDlZzjziulvXDbn0Ur2Rvqm6WPO5AC44PuHrNIwOO7divLlx6dnxs%2FpuI5S95%2FJUvGtgHEVndTsaPWovahce%2Fb7VYQSADOd1Y072yAZacrky67jsy1ZqvmGqppaed8M0bmSMJa5rhuCo%2BCF9PV3Ctiu73SV9vikkdzfjDj9qxvEHoeo5mvlsVYYZOYhqN2n%2FAHDcfNdGHyp6yfNz49Xp4lhABJwFqr1wFxBaAHVdI0xk48SKQOb%2FAPfsVpaOE%2FVqAXJzfWNDsSEbiFy6ZnMpuPK42e2es9hfK9k1bG5sOfcOxctvfeHW2u3QPppI5KGpj1wvZ%2BB81OdVUFbbIdcB%2FaNKcyMzhs8X%2FKprLdjcHVdulhkNI%2FLm6TnwXdD8FLVxm70q7La66SB9X6vIKLVofKNgSVIvBuVFZTRVMEjYBKHl5dkuHJv2Ld2imEnC0lDgu8Jwdnod8qPdqE1NjfUzD901rozkb4xz%2B9eUz3XZlwSYdPJayoZURx6WBrmN0uIGMos1%2BqLW6RkUmY5Wlj43DU148wkmo5I6OadoJjB06vNUvVe%2BnDXoBfQ36ijp65xDmtxDO0%2Fw%2FLHZZC82iqtNR4dQ3LHbxyt3a8eRTNFXS0rwWnLeoWtt10prhSmlq2CWB3NjubT3CzqwYdCnXqiioa10VPOJoju13UeRUBbHSVq5QCop0FPwuwooKdY7CjcrZ8FcROsl1gqRu1rhqb3HVeycXcR0ddwZPV0kuWSMGO%2FwXzcyYtOcqW25T%2BrGnEsngk5LNRxn4Lk5eHLLrG9OrHPC2ZZe46rpvEkcc5yVxKxgoQ5jsn6QUOSTJyuRIfDLei6McfGaeGefldka7ZGpNtK6W3k5cd0JDzXQAWma93ong8P25%2BfoR%2FkvN%2FSN%2FwCrM82fmt9bH6%2BFKF2eUbPkQsJ6RY8V8R8itxhjlOtLtMrj2wfmoKlW%2FwB%2BQZ0%2Bwd1KL0MxTVTegOVnM6Xk%2Ba0kR10szv5ogT8VTUmqKujcHRNIdkOkAc0fEJBELi%2FonJYHNY07bp%2Bomf6w92qNxfsSxgAPwXMji0NDznHRRYYbD%2B71POG%2Fimc7qQ%2BXXKCdwOgXDmjJdg6UDtLU%2BG0tEbDnqRuFY079dY0nqxU8Zw9WYmjZUxPadg3fClWI1QxrQ9xcdZccBR4D7RynK5wM7tPLOU1DzKv0n239qOrg6pHZjlhqI5kf%2FpW2sp1cJ1Tf8tyw9D%2FHd5tUapiqHtuUdSav33KMFUORe8nB75TcXvJwbSKUdnGFyOaV3JI3dQPQDM7U9V6PDy1RDthDnk81Ry45OVY8OyeHeaV3L95hVpT1HJ4NVFIPovBWcp%2BNbwv5R7jb5NRYOy1lANgVhbdMRp9k%2B0MjHRaO03MxzCKfl0K%2BNlNZPr43yx0suLag0vDddM0bthdj7l850QEks3i506CT8V9L1kENyoZKacaopWlrgD0XjHFXBj%2BG2VM7JNdPIcRk8wOxXZ8bOTpxc2N8WLEcR5kgqRHDGG7uafNRvCJ7HyynWMaCPZc0%2BW6%2BhHEf007ev3KTRXQ0cgdTyvY5pyHA7phsbNOXPb9yUCAH3gfgrobyj9JFTHYH0j6iSWt9YbIyWQ5w0Y2%2B8KXL6SaiVjJK6igqqyPZhdHhjB357ledlsDjtEXH4LtrQNxFj4lTxTb0qLj%2BgrLLV2ua2%2BrNqAdbmyHSCT0GNlM4DuFspnzQwVIMcrcSeO7do8v%2FAL0XnNpt9bdq6Oit8XiTScmgch3PkvYOGPRtQUMbZrufWqkjOjOGN%2F5WbDy0wV2dQVF48BkhOZtALT0zzUmax10V2Yy3RmUEgxvI9nHn%2Ba9dPDdkczQ61UpHfwxn7%2BazXG9oraCztlssxZS0%2Bouh05LAeeCd8eSnjr0TLbw7itvgXSWna1jfCeQTGctJz0Urhi%2BmhlAf7p5qoq2ubUvY4536qMf3b8t2SzcemGVxu49jpL3HO1pjcCCr6nuDQ9uD0XiNvuslK4FriPLotNScSvk0jm7ouXPi%2Fp2Y82529lgq4%2FB1OcAFTXXiJjZPVqVwMztmtzzKw1Rdq%2F8AZM1RHIA6P3m53aO6qrBNHWXJklXVGEZzJLguLcbggfFYw%2BPu%2Fkxnyyemkhqv2jcX0N%2FnfTxvyA5w%2Fgu6fZ0UMXJnDkklMySSVs2qOtjc0aC36Jb9m6fvlWeJKaevj0CpomYqOniszs8Dv3Co23GiqKWmZcWxmSAkCTUdT2dA74Lq1MJ05%2B8r2fpbTUVNT48T3RUrTqbNjdw8vsSQV1vpBP6tCIomux5vPUlSqjjCibTiBrmgAYGOizUUlE%2BSaolqGtjB1YIXj%2BWd7dE8cPTYWK9%2BDDVOeCWvGGRNHzJWX4n47qJz6hTACnb7%2Bk8z2VNfOKJKiI0tAfChxhzgMFyzBJJyvXDj0zyc9s1GpqK6OexVbWsDA57TpHQ4WUKvKZofZavfdulwVIV7uVynIZnwu1RuwU2hB3LK%2BZ%2Bp5yVwhIoBdBIEIrpLqXCE0uzodlONOAVHBTjORU0uyucu4GeISB2ymjzT9DJ4dSPPZNG0cbOIXeUTt0VD2%2BaRGRjJS7rpmMFIQg9gsEmvhOl32DT8isx6SG%2FvoHfFX%2FCZ18KsHYuCpfSO3LKZ3n%2BS9IwwRUii%2FiPHdhTBT9BvPj6p%2FBKLq2u1UUgJ3DCqzwPFkwDhTLdJoDmnk9pCabJFC%2F2jk9lkcVUcVIW6Pafp5%2BfdQHEuJLjklSKuo8d4wMAclFc7CaV0wtEmXjI7KSWk0hd9HPJRMZ3TpmPhaOiUNN2I2wFOgcHzweyNjg%2BarwpUDjE3WRy5KUdXcAVrsDAIUaH3k%2FcJRNK146twVGjOHKw%2B294dGeGKsfUcPksPTZbOHAjHIracJPMllrWE8mu%2FBYVxwSinrhEYpN3NdkAgtOVBXZPNcIldxbOTzv4iZZzTucvUUruSG8kp91KzB5oEduuSCOadjwZQFIrWMEeWkHfmggZStdggrh3NKEHonDXEzKgRxzkCVoA%2BK2kdUyVodGOR3%2BC8Kje6Nwcw4cNwQtlw%2FwASvJbFKQJehPJy4ub4%2FwBx28XP9V7Vaapr4xpO3ZSL1bYbvbZqScAskb25LBWy9GOQSR%2F7mrdWq5w1kTS132Lj1ca6svym48E4k4fnslwfTzglmfYeOTgq%2BOBu2c%2FevoHibhymvdE%2BN7RrO7XdivF73ZKyyVfgVUZA%2Bg%2FGzgvpcHN5TV9uDl4td4%2BleyCPnpT7I2dGgLlq7yQF0uYriGjYJtxc4hrQXPccNaOpXR7lbr0T8LPul0F4rIv7JTOzFqGz3%2Fopaleh%2BjvhePh6zsfNGPX6hodO8jcdm%2FYtZhCFJGKEjmNkY5kjQ5rhhwPIhKgKkfMXGdr%2FAGbe62mY3HgzOA%2F052%2BWFnwdWc816f6YLbLFxI6pjhe5lTE1wc1uQSNiFj7PwvPV1DPWj4GsExsPOQ9vJSvSKiht1TXyFtNEXaRlxHJoWgs9LFbK6KUTRtDd3vkbkfADzWttlqfHQPrqCJsUtv8A7xTnOXDvjr5qtv8AFQCsprtRxOfbZyGzwnnE7q38wVh6RC4oqba10NRZXyS00gBka5uzH9WlV2DYai3Xtnhz0VQSdGsHIGzmOHRW96udtszXUsNHSVNJPSYaGu3cSPZeezgV55M9z8Ak4HRVE%2B%2BXgVtbM%2BhjfTUz3HTFq3APTKpnPcebj967ITbgqjklIXHGMnCUhJhUclINyEuE%2FRxh1TEHDLS4ZCC8sckDY6uOaDxWeEctL8ZPRZt4w4r0SWnpoWvbFTxs1MAyB5FeeSe%2B74qo5SFCECISpEAlXUbDI4NaNytX%2FwBCVrYaaV1ZShs7c7uxpXrx8OfJ%2BsZyzmPtkkL0E%2BjKbw6d7LrSTCT%2BJ4TgfC3xvuoVRwdbqKtkjqL7DNEx2NULDk%2FZv%2BKv8OR5xi1JiLRA7I3J2WzrOG%2BGo2QmguFRVOe322FhboPxOyzl4tjqADTvHnbdeeWNjUy2qTzQ0lrg4cwk6oWFOSkv9s8zzSDkpDY8Qe0Qc7jCilQdtK71BcR41NDuRO6sqigphKRBVsdHsQSd%2BSlNPQOBn%2BJw9JH0DioPpEbmgpHeY%2FBSvR%2BdVlnb2kTXpAbmyUzuxavWMPOSpFuOKtmeuQo%2FMp%2BiH9rj%2BKUTaYl3u%2FR3UGqOmd481bWtmpzm92lVVc39%2BT3AKypnU3PXC5JyjG6MeaqOg9obgg5SHBGy52%2B1dYAailiYZJGxt5kgK0ulO2ja2I4J23CiWt4jqxK5ocGDOCluNSaiUvxjyUHNbAI2xuB2cFFacFWFd7VDA5VreaQbjgk6rfWt8j%2BCxMoxI74rZ8CHMNY3uPyWNqtppB9Y%2FirAz9ErhPFuIzlMqK7j95On30zGd07zelHROxCVvNcnqlasjokggpXvc9u%2FILlyPEcI9HQ7qhl3NKh3NAVQoXbCWuBBwRyK5XTUV6JwhQ3O42mS4U8YkEDtJaObwry2V0lO8vhJbg%2B1GTuCp3onM1FwuKtrx4ZmdqYW52ypHpEtkdPV0FdaxqfXSua4NOOmVw5YzO2OvDl8K01nu8dZTg5AeOYRfLVR3uifT1DQcj2XdWlecUdzko6jDzhzTggLY266tlaHMfnyyufLDLCurG459x5lf7DU2WpLJGl0RPsyY5qvihkkcGsYXOPQBe2SR0tzZoqomSt6hw5rQWejs8DQ2koKaB%2F1Yxn7128PPMpq%2B3H8jguHc9PI%2BF%2FR5cb1OySvY%2BkoQcuc4Yc8dgPzXttBR09vo4qSjjbFBE0NYwdAnpJGRRufI5rGMGXOJwAF5dxd6TyJJKLhzTn3XVbhnH%2BkfmulxPQ7terdaI9dwqo4s8mk5c74BYe5ek%2FLiy0W4vb%2FAOWodj%2Bkf8rzyIzXKV09bPJNPnJke7JKsYaMNbz5IsxTq3jniWdxxVthHaKMBSrRx1do3gTzySvaPdcAQ4%2BZ6BQK60VcdEat9K%2BOA4xK7kuLRGyUmOmgLyR7cf0pW9x5qVqSNZxBxRPdad0EdI1jYsGeJx1OLe4PZRaaxtFukM9Qzw3aZKCqL8EPP0cfLyKahfFZ618VdTyS1tPE71fDtPiDHI9yFU1VRTsoi6eRzbXUZfERu6mmHT4LD0kWdZfLnW0L5oWRxVNA%2FNbBpx4o5avMdCFh79xHTUklXTWKQmkrY2%2BKyVn8N3MgfA8io92v1x4mrooqdkUUgiELpGHR4wHVyh3Hgy40e89VQZIzhlSHH5KooZJw4kk5JTTpWqZ%2Bx5M4M8Xwbk%2Fkk%2FY7zsJHH4ROV6RBMjcLgvGVYiyVJfpGs%2F8A8Tv%2BEs1grGA6WPeegbGd1RVlwSZCnixXM8qGf%2F2pxnDt0dnFI8Y7kD80RV53Xs3CvBNjq%2BDaWrngL6uSMymdriCD2%2BC8vh4duT3Y8DT%2FAKnBeucK8N1J4KZDVXSsic8OcI4Xt0tHbln5rg%2F5DLLHCWXXbq%2BLJbdsrX6PFAZuMAfivN5hiVw%2BsV6HWYZUsY07YAWQ%2FZD5pZHumjiGo41HmvocWNyxmnNyalqoykV2%2BwxiEOFdCZM40pIuH3vbk1dOPIuVyxuPtmXalTtKxslTEyT3XOAPwV3Fw8wPb4tbTlueQcd1f%2BrcNRU8bIrdT%2BO0DXK%2BqlfqPw5KdaVWXC2AVcMdDSta3HQbfapRqqqDwYjy912eilVFwY9oijr46eH%2BSCHG3xKiV8VjkkzDW1pZ9YDJKuHJlOolxl9rB0z56WSnZIxmoe8s41s5c3RnLdlYw0FC1he2eua3q5xDQlguVspnggzyAHcOcMH5LW9ezXRun8WXTGfZazJ5KqvnjNk8N0jnRk5GQtA%2FiO1teXQUIb2zIThZu7VcdbP4kYI7gnKZZY66JKrHck2U%2B6NzvdBPwC4jhfLK2ONpL3HAC81IHuDcZ2SDJVlV2G4Unh%2BLDnXy07qbJYZ6OBscxPizM1aGtyR2WblI1JVDGwyPDWjJJWrpeFZJKeN743aiMnZS%2BErD6vViaua0gjAaei2ElG0vPhVD2M6NB2C5eXn1dR08XDudqH0dyf2Crb2cCpXHDdfDzD2I%2FFVno7f%2B7rWeTSrbi8Z4cPkfzXc4nmJOCnaRwFVGfrJpyWE4mjP1gqLy0H%2B1Fp6OIVZchiUd9x81Y2vavP8A%2B4fxUG6txI7yeVBBXKXGy5QCUlIlQSadzWQOORkpknLcpH7NAStGYiipEk5lo2x6dmnmooBynIz%2B6cFxqQbHgI5dUt8v%2BVkKwYqph2efxWr4Ad%2FaZx3aFl7iNNfUDtI78UHDm%2FuT9iiKwk%2Fuzu%2BGqLHE1%2BN1FNs5p3k5D4hGQQcpPpIjolK0pMbobzUU41oc9oPLKnT08boXFgOpoyMDp1UBpIORzCkSVj3RaGnTtg46hBBPNCHDdAVHQTjAmwpdFTyVNRHDE3U97g0BPpHvXo2gaeCKGJg1PlLiGjmd1saCxxRwsFaG1BY8vY14yGE9lG4HsMVhsFNTty%2BYxgyPP4DyWhXPhxatrOWbzb0kcFGoY%2B72ePRO0ZmiZycO4Hded2O6VEFQIng%2BZX0YQDsdwvG%2BOuH%2FANh3316JmKKoORge67qF6ZYTKaXj5csas6Kolw2SPljpyWioqzLWuzgrzmhujYJA6CfHlnGVaw3SOSTLH6Jc7jllcWfDcbuPqcXPjnNVvrvSR322GjqpJfDdz8N5bn49155dfRxJAdVqn8TfeKXY%2FYVrbVeiIw2ZuSOyuBVRTtAB%2FRMeXLFnLgn9PJ47XWWt4bWU74idvaGx%2B1SppoqdpD%2Fac4bR%2BXmvUKmCK4UT6afdjhgO6tPcLye%2B2ips9a6Kpa58Tj7Dwc6x3J%2FJdmHJ5OTk4ri3fBdXSXO3i21eiSF7ceG4Z0O8iVkeMrZNwrdmPo5HNb%2FEjk6%2FeqWlraimna%2BBxa4HLdK2lXxPSXfh8UVwp5pLg0%2BydPu%2Beey9fp5emf1z1VBLcg2QwB4f4x%2FwZc7gE8weyp6y700Ec0rQXSPGXEs9nVnoOW%2F5LbVFonqeABBTFznUtSZZI29WHqsdFBb36qeSJ8hPtauyTBLmo2cTzlx8KIZH8sY2Sf8AVFUQTpOOp0hMXsMikjbTahMdQeW7ZHRcQx3eWZlRDQu0sbuWwnQdsZIWdLKek4lrgNWmQD4YXUN9rpWPe%2BZ7Ggbb7uKYoKuegZU%2BsxNl8Qfu2u3w7unJmQxUUz3MLnvjwCT7ru4UEWW%2BXZ7yxsswxzGU0Lxd3D2ZJ3EnAAJJP2KK59Z6sKXJMT3awzz7ruKW4MqmTxzObLTgaX53bhUPNulzcTq1uAGTudvj2XD7jWYDiXBp5F2cH7Ux4tcWyyGR%2FwDaD7eD7%2FxXPg1L%2FDp3PJY3cNLtgnQd9dri7GHE9xkr2Lgqjus%2FA7Sbi6B8%2BpzP3QJYO2685iqnRuZJC6GKVrdOWgfgvV%2BFv2jUcKMe6sj8WUOLHCPIaF87%2Fkstcc%2F9dfxf2rzWub4VTGwu1EYBP2rM1WkTSZqWg6j7L27LSXFro61jXu1OBOT3OVkrmW%2BPKDzDyvocVvhHPyT8q5Msf1c925C7Y4S%2BxG54ceWAq8uHdPUsmkHuNwt1hL9Wq8Z8R%2Bn4dlwAw5PrLyAMnZSWyMkgBDzqxyUb1Rh05ccnntyUCxtgc6MOndh7sc%2Fd8ypktPBTSaGFr3g%2B9zA%2B9RTDC3GGnbke6cja3SdQcSU2HopKatqpGXmvnjY2Mlr2jXqcOTcdAoJbQeqPkD3%2Bsa8NjI2x3yu3UwILiDk8knq0eRhu3XdNqSQW9ksQjdJJHpy86cEHsFIs9CLhVkAaYWblM%2BrtGdufJaiyU7I6LRFjW8ZKznlqN8eO6lRUlNHCWwRMGOuFT01PGziGAtaBncjzUuWtfb5HMmYQ08j0Kr6a4NdeYpgOWy8ZbXtnjNN6ZGNaHvYCByyqupqPWJ3TO97GAfJO3KTTTNJOM7rLXC%2BRQscyI6nrwuNyvRjZJurmpr20zdReB23UB3ElSCQOSx1VWTVLyZHH4JsTyAY1Fe2Px9Ttm839Nx6PHYqapueca0XEw1cOTeWVlvR87FymaesRWtvg12CqHbV%2BC7I5nlLsbrluzh8Up5rkoi8oCG3B2Tga%2BqjXhv71%2FYuyFzLkTvIPPB%2BSYmkOQCcqQRSVynntY7dpwey4LCAg4XTRkrkpyNvN3ZAPGXb8l0AAMN3ym%2Bi6Yd%2FsQdwM1FzW7kjYJktLXYOQR0XTJHRvDmnBCkNjFQ18r3HV0A6orQcAn%2FuMo7sCoL03TdKsdpSrzgU4uzh9T81WcSwFl0qpBu0yuz5FBEl%2FgOH1QobH6T5KVKf3Z%2F0BQlA686nasoOx3TY5rt%2FRNB3Q7Rqxt3XITet2MZOE43olHQ5LkpxjckjupFVSsjbmN5dtzwkKgu5pAlckCo6C2foupmz8WUpe1rgzJ9odcYWMC2novqG0%2FE1O5x6j8VL6SvphjQ1oaOQGEpSjdIVHjQoF6tNLerfJRVjcxvGxHNp7hT0IjwPivhep4erRFK4SQyZMUoHP4%2BaroZjBETKc6dw7svcOMaCluFnMVX7J1gRyctDjyJPQLxK8WuVr54nSN8WB5b4HIEfzealj2wtXNnvcU7QHOLXj6QGcrR2%2B7xSTNjndh3R%2BMZXlVHO%2BmkExJLAcZ7q%2BgrjXRuhdHI6Ju7ZIz7bFy58L6PFzfVeiXC7Pt8bnxZkjzv8AV81No6%2BjutO1k4ZINtnDK88sXETqCqdR3PE8Dtmvd2WytdHapagVFNUOazmYwdipMbPTo8sbO0Ou4YhZdZTDgQnDmjtldvpYqRuzQcDmrqeQOkc4bAlUl1k1BzGnA7r3m3zstb6Q38R1FkBlpHDP0oyMtcOxVZLxbw1UTOqKqxVFPUn3nUsoLXH4FUl7qhrcwOyFmKmQaSG8yd17T08LGqqOKrNTzumt9j8Wc8pa14dp%2FwBo2U3hP0h18N4b6%2BWyQyuDBC1oawAnB2A7LDUlFVXCdkFHA%2BaV3JrBlXtXbo%2BGPCfUTxz3Rzf4DDkQ%2FE9SmkSOPo6E8W1wthb6sHggM5B2MnH25Wfe3WNydue6I3PJc%2BRxc525PmV1lYrcNGMZ1JPDG%2FmnEhG6Djwm5G3JJ4bQc4TiRAgYOy3PDV74ih4fdSWm2mpijJDZtJOnPRYcnAXpXo%2F4mt1Dw6%2BlrahsD4XucAfpg9vNcXzv%2Bv8AXbp%2BPfy9sRVGUzxGcESZy4HvndZe9DFbL%2FqK1N2roam4umjdhjpCW554ys1fW4rpOx3XZxXeE28eT9qqk5EeaaTkR9perzT6Z4EQztgp%2BV%2BGZaVXjJjwOQKlx1J9TELWDGcl2FlQ2Uyv042ClBMQxFo1HmU8DhQdLhwwukFSK5Byr%2B0FtRBhh0ys%2BaoC05TtLVSUj9UZ3IwmeNsa48pjV1VSPeC2ogLmjqVWRmiimBZFg5TU1xlmOHvwOyftFN63XRjGWtOXErxmOvb2yzlaa%2FSN%2FYL5nM9kxgNB7leYvJJ3Xp%2FFBaLfSwOifIx7%2FcZzdgdF5hJs9wxjBO3Zb4tPHKuCUuQueaML3ebbcEBjbw0sJ9pjhhbS5M1Wesb8fwWC4NcRe4B3z%2BC9BqB%2FYKsf%2FeSFePvGDhcqZK6F0jsswc9E2IonHZ5HxREiVx1tH1G%2Fgo1TsQplQzSYyDkGMKNUtGBkpBEQSSMZXRaMpQ1RUmhtVVXZ8BoOAScnGAOa4jgJPhhzcnqTsnqWV0YO2QRjBVpbrTPU0z6oxP8AVw4NdJoJDT2ypctLpFuVkrLVbopK%2BmdC6bDoy76TTyIVMMZwTgL0K70UQ4bpGgtlc9xAc7OwWFrqSSkmMbx5gjkQpjluFmiRwMe4bnCdZH4UhAJworHFrgeykOmJd381UX%2FCLWsvI09WH8VA4hlEF%2FrWPbqjc%2F2mqbwnJ%2F3aL4FQOMW4v9X%2FAKgfktQV9UGNcRGcs07ZUBWNQ3LAfqriloG1GrXUMhI5B%2F0kEJvMJyTonqyhlopWslLTqGQWnOyae0uADdyga2ynRnAXMkZZ72Mpxo1N2UX07ifh2Sn56kOZhgxnuo7B08l03w9DtWdXTskRHduUbrsZJ2CcDcDdUNNz0CtLFVOorlBONtLgoYATjMZCJX1lYLgy52mnqoyDqYM46FWBXkHoc4k0arZVO%2FdvP7tx5auy9fUeWREJUiMmqmniqqeSCdgfHIMOaeq8s4zsU8j3RPIbU00ZdFKTj1iIcm%2Bbhn8F6wq692wXGlAYQ2oiOuGTHuu%2FVRvHLT54r7dURU3rMIMkJAErg33Hdk3azWx1Ino4nNxjIHL7V623g6SsuLKmBvq8UjcVEUzScO67Hn3BWqouF7PRRxsjo2HR1cM5PdNbevnr084s3B3%2FAFI41jzFGY3DXGNslPXSpgtlXFTx07aWaJpEkbTz816dW1dFaKJ9RUyR09PGMk8h9gXjfFnEEHEt5ilpYmQRRjSJZBu4d3K%2BMWc%2Bd6Taq%2BNfHiM4KpbhdJpR4cGp8j9gGjJJ8lV1s0T6qGmtzZHueAzTjJe%2FuPitBLVs4Si9Vo9Mt7e39%2FPjPq%2Bfos8%2B5VmG6zc9KuThGtMbZ71WQWtrtwyY5kI%2F0hJBaeG6d3tOqrg%2F6x8Np%2B7dQZjLJL49dJI97zkknJKWNwMnsDDei9Zhp53NpLvPLbrDI6zMiohgZbTswSOuXcyvO2h8j3TSuL3uO7nHJK9KgYKy1mN2CHsLSvP5IjFK6MjBYSFjkmmsLs3yC5OycITFQ%2Fw2%2Ba8XokxU0krdTAMeZUyjslVWEiHwyQP5lWQTgjGVZUl2FGwhp3PUFZ3q9ro7Nw7XQtLpRE1o5kv2Cp5C1kjmBwOnqOSl3q9SVVE6MPO%2FPdUltr2w1GqoaZANw0nbK3uVNVNzqOegXSfpLm1jnPfRxvyPYyNgoz5i92fB0gnJwVGr05YWSVLWOaCWnnnkpPEUglt7GimjjDD7wGSft5qFG8NrfZ5EdQpV61OoiScjbC1GWYXTOa57obzWkTIcljw3qVJgZyb2UWkd7RU6Dbn1Wap5JgIKQnAysjqPSX%2B1yVxZXUTbhA6qha%2BBrwZGn6Q7LOl7g7IXXjyfBJ1dr9Pa5r9wJBGXNstM5wGwMI3XmV7ulpuVbLUeAKUE4ZBTtDWhUTpZH83KJ6tJPVCKMFz3dBuvWctjynHIm0VvkuFfpp92DcknkFsLbRR0D3OJaN8EqBYLPLTnQT7Z3fjoofGdw8KRtDA4DSAZCO657fLLUe06jXcSUni2ZtQyURvg9sO77LyyvEGsGB2rIy4%2BalVF9uFRQMopZi6JoxhVhC1hh4pbtzhdhhwuU%2B14wF6sbX%2FCbtN8pfN2PkvSJBmCrH1R%2Ba8x4ddovVGf8wL1DmJx3YpFryGpbieQfWKZKlXIaa2YfXKiHKqLFzi5kGf%2FABhM1YwGHuE60fuID5YS1rSYo8DO3RRU6gpLVPZZZNU5ubHbR4Hhln45Vf6w6KnfA2OPDzuS3cJumklp3a4w4O%2BCbc2RxJLSsxbTrG%2FSzstLaeJpKa1C2yMYYQ8vBA3z5rMRtcIznOSlZFINs5UymyV6zejZo7TZmVUngOfAXNfG4HB%2BsMLESXWiZUA11PBXtgGljXkgEZ8kzxS50goo2kjw4QN1QNjIzkjfzWMcNTtq1ZXe5UlcWeqWumotJJPhZJd8cquccj3QuNOCeSN%2B69NM1d8MuYLvT6M75zn4FM8bDF%2Fn8w0%2FJc8OOxdqb%2FUpHHkeL24%2FzRtK1EZ9z5HNAcNgE8PDP%2BKPuSyM%2FctcBtpCjB%2BeZP3JSJTYopZADLk%2BSWalawAtkJ3XIppmguBAw3VknomXPeW7vP3IGKhumTGSfinGbNC7MD3x%2BMY3FmcF2E2emOSB6MaiQOZCcqKJ8DWkuBLhnA6JqFxDwVOqauJ8OA3HYKwV7OXJdnJGACmtRS5OVNmnYY7zTjWkJrJS6imzS4tlfPRESQuLSxwdsV9DcA8TxcRWhjy4esxjTI3O%2FwAV83W04ke47gNWz4UnruG7i6vp5G%2BrNI8RjjjU09u6jOU2%2Bh0KHabhBdKCKspnB0cjc7dFMR4ughCCcDJOFpoKmv8AxDSWjTD%2FABqyT%2BFTsO58yeg81nOMOP4beX0doImqBs%2BUe7H8O5XntRBW3qvjnhqNUsuzi8nLsqrIncYy3e4OprhdfFFHI790xg9jHXT%2Bqf4W4NruIZhPM00Vsb7pI9p47D%2Fla%2FhngqUQQOv8zp44TqhpSfZae5%2F4W5a1rGhrQGtAwANgFF3r08%2Bu%2FDlo4RY%2B7QNaXtAFOx4y4SYxnPbqvO3SmSZ0zwDI86nO6krR%2Bkq%2Fi5Xo0MDgaelGnIPvP6lZSJ5xjHJe%2BE6eeV2W46CxheSN%2BgUdpjEmI86fNOXFzDEzW4gg7KIZIgW%2BESdt8rVI11glHq2k9HLNcU03q92kIHsy4ePzVnYptnt8wUcXx%2BLT09Q3mDpKxyT8WsLrJlTyUCodqfjoFMndpaVAALn481yvc5DHhpJ5JSATuE%2BBpbhNPy72W%2FaUEepfGyM4aCuLa1h1HSMkpyaFr2aDtvzXFJGYamRgDtA90nqqJuAuSF2Vy5QRKrMbmSMO67ukz%2FAY3UCHtBO6kMoai4PbDSxl8hOzQpfEPCd6tdFHPXUTo42xhxfnIAPJanpGQPNA5oOxQOa0JNN%2FF%2BxT2HdV9Mf3oU9pwVlT3RNzO2wu%2BiYedRUCxjJXb2g8ksYw1ddUDBBAK4pqypoJDNEdLn%2BzqT7xsuHmDwmh8Mkh6HVgAq%2BxoKC%2BPpre6qmIzyYM7krH1VQ%2BqqHzSOJc85OU%2FLC6T3TgdlzFSO1ZfyUxxkXZaWL2NRHNE8A05apenGwC4eMjC0wrCMJMqRLFuSEzpV2NLag1lfTv0jIkH4r0obiTzaV5nRnTUwn64%2FFemR%2FS82%2FkorzG6jTXzYA98qHqOeQ%2B5WN8bpuU4%2BsqwHdSrEp5Jp4ie5SzkiOMtOFznNKzycuphmGNVlHc5x6n70jA552ySnYWs8VokOG5GVvuH%2BF6O8XGmp4iWB0ZdqYOa1hh5M55zF568EDByFzFkysG%2B7gvQvSTweeH44pg8zRv2bJpwR5FYi2Uzppmuzs1wyrnx6MM%2FI9fHn17Q4khjQN1VuI6KVdHF9bK4uzvhQ87rzegxldRMDveK45FHMbILaxeGLvShu51qw9ITMXKN3eJVtigcy50r3DcvGArn0iMxLTP%2FmYQrErKyPxA1vdijQvEcrXlocB0PIqTKWFrW5GQwJgwgD%2BKzPbKUifHURz%2BJHy1sIAA6rioExiAfG1uBjK6sUcf7SaJyNGDuTsre8SWsHTE7Jbzxups0ofFnbAI%2FFAHLT5KPsNk9XPill1QjS3AGCijoaiul8KlZ4j8ZIb2QNseG5ORlcl5cckrl7S1zmuGCDggrnKo6JQD1XOUqius5XQTaUFBNonHL2928%2FgtNca01sFOxkPqzGxNwA4u1Hq7fv28lkqaUxSteOh5K%2FY9r2Mc33cYx2RK2no44ykslSKCtdmjkdz%2FAJD5L3CKRksbZI3BzHDII6hfLEwAGpp3XpHo1499WdHarvJ%2B6JxFK4%2B75K6eWUeyLH%2BkO7VdrpKZ8dO%2BSkLiahzdh9UE9iVrmOa9gcxwc07gg7FN1VLT1kDoKqFksTubXjIKqPG6KSo4pE0MFqhfWTTh4qGZaIWY5dsL0zhrhejscDDpEtVj2pCOXwHRW1HQ0tDF4VHAyFmc4YMKRyVW0LI%2BkfipnDlmc2F49dqAWxN7d3Kw4s4poOGbe%2BoqpGmXH7uEH2nFfOXEnEFVxDdZayseSXe63OzB2CkSTZ1lXJK8yOeS4nJJ6lT43O2PQrO00uHYKt4JMjnt8V740sTaiEVLW6naSCo9XFHCWtYcnG5TdYZHxN0ZIzvhR%2FDkj0l7SMrVZi%2FsDv3j%2FMK2u0fjWacYyWYcFQ2F5E7h00rTvAlop4xvqjI%2BSXuHqvNqh%2BThcQN9rUeSSX3yPNORxudjPLoFxujZXOL9m8u6UDS3AXWMbcly4eyVFRnzN8VrGOwSefZdSxFs5Pjukb0PJV8Q%2FtQ%2F1K0k0gZJwqAOS6tslR%2FEycMGSlALv4n3BBZWSslp6wzwOawsGznL0DjrjW0XDgZlvZM6pr3MYx7g0hoI5leWVDgIT0wknwbYzbfurEUz%2FeKQJX81ytB%2BHaRpVg1VrDgg%2BasQs0OPdhuybaMuSOOSnIxtlRXY2QlSIIta9wAaDjKciBMLQScKPWH22qXHtG0eSo4IwumldEZXHIhIHDy3TTuadPJMu5rVZNPC40jsnHLhQXFPvIwjfcL0qE6tPm38l5LScRy0gPg07dR5kuz%2BSv2ekXSWE2rOkYP9p5%2F0IpjiMabpMFTE7ounEAr6p8%2Fqvh6vo%2BJn8lBNwH%2Fh%2Fq%2FRBbMOaY%2BT09KP7K13YqnZdNMZZ4OcnOdf6Jx15zAIvV%2Buc6%2F0RE4jLc%2Fer%2FhHiSo4fucVZGTIGey5jjsQeixzbpjI8HIP1%2F0SC6Y%2Fwf6v0V2mU29M4%2B47%2FwCqGQQNpvBgiOSNWSSshQzBlb%2B7zoOdiqE3PJ%2Fhf1fou4rr4Ty8Q7kY979FblbNJjj4pVQ%2FXO8%2FWKaPNRTX5OfD%2Fq%2FRJ69%2Flf1LLcSuak0xZH7Tm6n9AeSrBXAf4X9X6JTX5%2Fw%2F6lBqLM4PuVM55xh4JVrx%2B%2BOenp3RnOnKxlDe%2FVZWP9W1aT%2F5MZ%2BSl3figXKBsXqXh46%2BLn8lYI8On1efJGcDAPNQPpFI6saQMRYI66v0Tfj750%2FNEWdcwRiPS3TlgO3VR2klpUc1jnN0uaT8SkbVadtHzVgkTCRxy8Hl2Vpw7xDX8PTTTW6URumjMb8tBy0qoluMkow5uwGOaYNRn6HzUvayplTL48zpcYLzk%2FFNJjx%2Fq%2FNHj%2FV%2BaGz66Ub1j6vzS%2Bs%2FU%2BahtIKFH9Z%2Bp80vrP1Pmi7SGq%2FtwL6UY3OVl%2FWfqfNWVDfTSR6fVte%2Bc%2BJj8lWavHNJbgjquHRajkAhVbuJHHlS%2FwDyfolZxK4e9SNPwfj8lU033C3pEunDpbT1WaqjG2lx3b8CvT7Z6TOGq6Frn1hp5DzjkadvtXzdNf2Sn2qIf%2F6fomDdmdKRo%2BD%2FANETxfUU%2FH%2FDkWzK7xnfyxNJKxvEnphgjY%2BGzwO8Tlrk6Lxuk4jbSgmOkeHluM%2BPt92lVL61znFxbufNE8V5ebzWXiqdUV07pZD3PJV2d1C9a3935pfXPqf1JtqTSwa%2FS4FW1DNqAB5FZr13%2FL%2FqT8N1MQ2hzj6%2F6LeOWksbFkrcjT0RWTlsTQOTjgrNs4jDR%2FdP%2Fl%2FRE%2FEfjMa00mMHP8X9FvzjHjWjtji2dpacZOFsqLBOM56Lyum4l8CRrvVNWOni4%2FJXUHpCERz%2Byif%2FAOz%2FAPgnnjouN2hTR6KyZp%2Bi8j5p1pxuFU1V%2FE9TLMKXT4jy7T4mcZ%2Bxcftzb%2B7f%2FJ%2Bi569YtnnrlcuIDSTyVQ%2B8av8AAx%2Fv%2FRcvu%2BtmnwMf7%2F0U01t0z2qgYJGXKyEbAd8uPcqlbXRh2rwDnP8AP%2Bie%2Fa%2B%2F8D%2Bv9E1Ta0cB0XJGFXftjI%2Fu%2FwDX%2BiQ3fP8Agf1%2Fomqm02o3icAui9rrQAR7YdzVa%2B56m48HH%2B%2F9EG5ZgMZh3%2Fm1forBHfzXK5dLn6PzSeJ5Kh9vJTy7DAfJVQm2935p41mWgaOX1kE%2BPdSQMBVUdfo%2Fws%2F7v0Tn7V%2FyP6%2F0U0u1iEqrf2p%2Fkf1%2Foj9qf5H9f6KaNr6g4cq7zDNPSjLYB7WFCLDGSx3NuxRZ%2BK5rU55hhcdYwQJcfkoE138SVz%2FAxqOca%2F0V0bTzyTLnjVpbuVCdcy4YERH%2B79ENuLWjAg%2Fr%2FRIbWPRNu5qJ%2B1B%2F4P6%2F0XJuIP8Ag%2F1fotVlIfzXCjmuz%2Fh%2F1fouPW%2Fqf1KCKhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEH%2F%2FZ&hash=d2535335a8d3f4c2ddb86c2d8fc4f267) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LCITYsvb5k)
The Pretenders - Back To Ohio - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LCITYsvb5k)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 09:40:00 AM

The US lower 48 was almost cut bare circa 1920.  The regrowth of forests in the US is rather amazing since then.

You have to look hard to find virgin forest in the lower 48, nearly all of it has grown back since 1930 or so.  Atlanta from the air looks like a forest with some spots of commercial development.

(https://i.imgur.com/4e1Ragb.png)

I live right about in the middle on the horizon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 09:52:56 AM

https://psmag.com/environment/the-planet-now-has-more-trees-than-it-did-35-years-ago (https://psmag.com/environment/the-planet-now-has-more-trees-than-it-did-35-years-ago)

The key thing about trees and CO2 is that trees are close to net neutral.  When they grow they soak up CO2 obviously, the stuff we see in a tree is nearly all a combination of CO2 and water.  But when they die, the lie on the ground and rot and all that CO2 is returned to the air.

If they get buried, this changes the equation of course.  I have not done the calculations, but rather than try to remove CO2 from the air artificially (CO2 scrubbing), it could make more sense to grow them and then bury them where they won't rot.

Or make paper out of them and put than in sanitary landfills.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 04, 2019, 10:40:01 AM

That's right. Trees are part of the carbon cycle. Our problem is that we are introducing CO2 to the atmosphere that had spent many millions of years deep within the Earth's crust -- therefore removed from the carbon cycle. So we are increasing the carrying capacity of the entire cycle.

The best ways to correct that are by stopping to dope the carbon cycle with more exogenous stuff (relatively straightforward but a real struggle politically) and to remove carbon from the cycle (so far impractical, a great engineering challenge).

If you wanted forests to help the problem, though the plan is not technically impossible it is impossible realistically and would eventually reveal itself as a ticking bomb. You'd start by growing our forests much faster in photosynthetic biomass than they are now. And then you'd need that growth to further increase every year into perpetuity. Those trees would still be part of the carbon cycle, but they'd be out of equilibrium with the carbon cycle. Growing nearly exponentially. Siphoning the cycle in their direction, like a global showing of Le Chatelier's principle.

But - obviously - having the world's forests become exponentially bigger starting today and continuing forever is not a real thing. Eventually anything's growth must slow relative to decay. At that point, forests would either reach equilibrium with the cycle (a net neutral carbon scenario) or would overgrow their resources and net decay (and therefore contribute to more atmospheric carbon, not less).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 10:49:25 AM

The idea of adding iron to portions of the ocean is interesting to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 04, 2019, 10:50:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 09:52:56 AM

If they get buried, this changes the equation of course.  I have not done the calculations, but rather than try to remove CO2 from the air artificially (CO2 scrubbing), it could make more sense to grow them and then bury them where they won't rot.

Or make paper out of them and put than in sanitary landfills.

I feel like that engineering challenge could be made easier by turning to Cyanobacteria, instead of trees. Anything that expresses an efficient RuBisCO would work. And algal blooms - whether managed in nature or industrial laboratories - *may* be simpler to work with, transport and funnel into chambers locked away from the carbon cycle. I also imagine they'd be an easier biomass to scale.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 10:58:26 AM

Algae require some effort to grow well, oddly enough.  Otherwise it tends to mat and suffocate itself.

Ocean currents and waves take care of this issue and the phyoplanta that die fall to the bottom of the pond and turn into limestone, which is a pretty good sink for carbon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 04, 2019, 10:59:01 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 10:49:25 AM

The idea of adding iron to portions of the ocean is interesting to me.

I have my eye on it too but it feels untenable to me. I'm less so talking about the heightened risks of toxic algal blooms/deoxygenated zones (though that'd almost be certain) than I am talking about how algal corpses that sink to the bottom of the ocean may not be removed from the carbon cycle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 04, 2019, 11:11:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 10:58:26 AM

Algae require some effort to grow well, oddly enough.  Otherwise it tends to mat and suffocate itself.

Ocean currents and waves take care of this issue and the phyoplanta that die fall to the bottom of the pond and turn into limestone, which is a pretty good sink for carbon.

I'm nodding along to most of this. But agitation of fluids is not a foreign concept to biological laboratories. Outside the oceans, scale would be more of an issue, admittedly, but at less cost to human safety (in terms of swimming/boating through maitotoxin or global crashes in fish population due to toxic blooms). 

Also, in order to proportionately increase limestone formation, you'd have to be sure that iron doping  didn't disproportionately bloom Cyanobacteria or Prochlorophytes, which do not have carbonate shells, over the eukaryotic plankton, which do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 11:17:35 AM

No doubt there are issues with the iron doping concept, including the possibility of unintended consequences.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 04, 2019, 11:25:07 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 04, 2019, 11:17:35 AM

No doubt there are issues with the iron doping concept, including the possibility near-certainty of unintended consequences.

FIFY, CD.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 04, 2019, 12:04:38 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 03, 2019, 08:02:06 PM

The area of the United States will not support 300 million people living like the Amish.

Never said it would but if the grid,market or both crash those 300 M will wish they were Indian/Amish/Farmers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 04, 2019, 12:05:43 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 04, 2019, 09:28:10 AM

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qy0tIjdlrdsfcuKempZTJPBOwM%2F8ZPtfFZzy%2FBrDH8j9FL6oW53JGExXSPj5bPe7AxzKIvaccbe1s4pyJokrg143Znc%2FiuLTqSKaFw8MPJ7lbS3uax4yNtAOVlHe1JEW8nOG3ktE%2BQN1BmwjYTnucLOXbcXXhxzygk5a6PZSKOhiaWOAzvyJVRbpneFTPPukYz59lo4on%2BAHRnfOV5V1ccmljJbaO4U5hlhaQRg7Kui4TpbdBOaclpf%2FM7OFMoasxEa%2BfJS7oZJKN0kZYdLSSHOwCtTuPPKXHL%2FABR1lr9XoGTNduNnHuFgOK%2BIPUoTRQPAfjoVspeI4pLHNTVTAyfHsgO1AjuvDuI6ttVcHvaMY2JzzXvxYbvbn587FbUyOllc5%2FMnO6ZSkknJSLsjjpEiUpEAhGEKhOqEqEQiEIQIhB3QUAk6o6IQCVIlQIhLjZCBEunshdtfpCDj4oQjCAwlSApUEiic91RHG0nDnAYXqkNJDHG1zzyaNl5bbZBDWxSO5NOVtC6tqbaaoOczUdLfNcfyZbY7fjXUq7eA%2FLmtw0dVn6%2BXU5zWlNNmrGR%2BGSfM5XJjeGanncrywx09Msts5VnD3BwUbIVldGguBaN%2FJQxTPIzhdcvTls7bnjFmqxtd20%2FivPyvRuKW6uHneQ%2FNecu5rprmgCnUThHWBxOMYUEKXGP7QR3Cyrm5NDap%2BDnJyoqmXNuJwSNy0ZUNQCChKEAEHklCMZVAN1004SBCCdKA%2BnYQFJsUbW3GIkqsbI4DSOSn2pw9epz%2FAJg%2FFS1YteL2GOtt%2BOboyPmkm4frRDrdJDyzjUf%2BE7x7lslueNiGHB%2B1VQuVdLSnVPIcEbrGW76NQ62WS2UjnayJ5MtGDyaqPJmlJeTvk5Up83rNSGzzFsY2LsZwuZIIoi50U7JQc8gQQrBIoqWufAHw0znx9HAJqUVdI%2FxJIQB2eMhXljvtJR0LaecvDm5zgbKDdLnTVplDWOGRhpKxN7elytisdMaiR8smkOJzhowEhOQB0ThpmxQglxJPJMtBK9LNMOXHB2Q9znnfmnoGB0vtckssYjexw232IREeOnnkcRHE9x8gkbDM4kNY4kdgnaiZ%2FjOLZJMHfJOCUy2V7fdc4faqHBS1JOBDJ9y7koauI4lgkaSM7hNiplx%2FFf8A%2B4pXVUrvelkPxcUEmG21rmte2mk0nk7GyvqC31zIBrppGkk5y1ZyKtnbgGaXSOgeVpaCvjfASa1%2Bvqw5IPwXlyb09MPYBkY8xvaQeymUcRc5waSZHDGPJRXkMaZtJkI5ZKcoahzJ2R6gJJMj71z2OiLWOUGpha3cNGcq%2ByPAeZNsjc%2BXVVNDb3mYPbza0qVTwzV0jwHFoOAPLuvK17Y4pdqqXTU7mgAMbJqBxy2wtnb5WijY5ztlgLhObPI2j3y46y7GMhXlluccwZEX5zyCzcXthdJHGt2rLVbvW7a1gAcAS5uV5lcOIrhc5A%2BtqpHtB9wOw37l6JxqJHcOTtaNQLm%2FiF5rX2OahibNK4NDhktPRdHD46c3yLl9FZXeNWDQ90cbjgZPIKyrYqKoAE7aeXAwHAYPyWTdK1hAEjSM9OiketUnWd%2BfJhXT4uK2pdRa7WT7Bew%2BT8hcM4bZNHrgmc8Zxp2yFFbJFOdEco25E%2BySnWTTUmwmwD2Kobl4bqmHbOPNqgVdtnpmtc7S4H%2BXOR8VcOr5iNTawZ7FyixXN7HkyzNOD1bqykopSCDggj4pCpVyqjW1ck7gAXHk0YCirSEQlQgTCEqRECQrpIgQI6pQkQKgoQUAOSMICEAhAQihCVIgRKEIQSKKITVUUWoN1OAJPReiVBpmQNb62wRxNw1ndeatcWuDgdwtNSCOWFk2nJx3XNz4b1XVwZali7bNEYtbh7XRV9XKXN9lK3xJXbtw0Dmmahwaw%2BRXlMe3rlUGRg5uTXitG2Ek0uVGJJK95Hha9A4jYDw%2FUY6B34rzRw3XqXEEebHWjHLWvLXc11VyQg5qdCP7S3n7oPyUHqp0ZLZmb7Fo%2FBZU9fI9M2eoJ%2F5VUra6jLn%2FABafkqrogQhKEoQgAlCsbBQw19e2OoqqWmjAyX1LiGfDZPXWgpKV72xTGV2dnRDMR%2BBWdrpUoQRgpwN5FaRzpI3Ck206a6Ej%2BcfimcZ2T1G3FTE4dHD8VlrTRekH%2BHbj9V34rP00jWUcrXZ1OxgLRcf%2FAN1triM%2B8smX%2FujjbfkiOGM1ZONzvlSqF4EdS0loJjI3UeOUQyMc5geBvgpqeTxJnyABocScDog6Z1CQDJ3IC0disVNW0LKiWR4JJGAq%2B70UVFUtbESQd91mZTa6cStPhDAzgc1DBITr6hzmadk1jZbyu0hWO0u8ksry93w5LgoacPBPQqAnilaxr3sIbnAJCYV3X3L1yi9VYwu0uBGG7%2F8AKpzG9p9pjh8Qg5Qugx2ORUqkoTP7TnaGfiqqK3mFe0FL4UIc8DWfknKegp4gCxup3dylclNbN6M63NbpyeaKU4uLZJR7pTugOC78Ru5nYScYDmrGWDeObYWW8Q%2F3Sb2ZZDpYXclr7dbImUoexgc7mSvIBUtdFpkbrAHsnq1XPDvGNxsuY9qmncd2SE5HwK57wX6dWHyJL223FdoiuVF4g9iohaS09%2FJY2x0NbMDUl3q8UXOR%2FwCGFtaPjnh2Zmusp6iKXG%2Fs6hlU%2FEXFlqqWxw22iL2MdqcZRjUfgmPHn6r0y5sPcP0tXNWD1VwbUBpBcWDYYPVZ7j2nfVys9VixIwe23OCpfAFwnpOIfCjj1iUZLQM7dVrPSVZhHZ4LtDFokZIWSj6ruWfgfxTHHx5NOfPk8sXg09FVMcS%2BCQD%2FAElRSN1tDJqPNMVVJT1vsSAMfp9lwC63LtkVsOB6O3V1Q79pxCWFjdxnBOVmK6kko5zFKPge4XFNVTUr9cLy0kYPmscmNyx1Hrx5THLdbP0icJ22zNgrbHUOlpptpISdZgPQFw237HdYUjBWp4Y4rntckkUzWTUsw0SwyDLXtPRSuIuGaOqpzdeFnOmptOqekO8kHw%2Fmb5qY7x6rFu7ti%2BiTolxhIvVCISpEQIQhFCRKkwiBCAlQIgISgIpEqEIEQlCXCiuUqXCEHKVLhGENEV5YHF8bmE7NOQqNaLhu2PqWOnbII2DbPdYz7jeF8atHPDIzkhVNZO1zMNOSu7u6KOTRDUGVo2LsYyVBEZwD3Xljj9vW579OOaUMceQKdZESdwpjYTpGFraSPQr5Bm13Adi78F4%2BV7bc4i6juA75%2FBeKSDDsLp%2BnJHHRTGD24f8ASoimNH8A%2FV%2FMqKsOIqOSkn8ORzXEsYctORyVGFa3ojMYBJzG07%2FBVSAKRdBpcU6ymc92kuaO5J5JVgpJ%2FV5NYa1xwRhwyEjXuyQ5xwemdlIjt7C8g1UIbn3iea7qGUjIgyIPMg95xcCD8FjbXj0guxnZOxnLMJo4XbHAc1tl2BgZT1Kf3zPimdTS3Ypyk%2FjNWVjTcej%2FALZbXebvwWOdtG0ea2fHIzZLe4dHn8FjH8mfBEcy%2FR%2BCb6pybk34JpUSoKueNgZHNI1nYOwFzrc8kvcXHzOU3Gu2dVNKXouwMrhdgqDuKNr5AHcklRCIyMdUsbg1%2B4RPL4haMbBUcwCZkmYiWO6EHCH1NQ53tyvJ83ZTj526wR2wo793EjqinGTSlwHiO%2B9bO3cHXiroG1cQhaxzdQD3nJ%2BSyNvhM9ZDE3m9waF9H2GmaygjixkBgauX5HNePWnRw8UzlteFx%2BIxzo5m6ZGHBAXZ2W29IPCslDObnSMJgecSgfRPdYt2C07%2FAAXRxZ%2BeO3hyYeN0Qctk1K45wR9qQvcMFrSRhej8NTW6s4fZHV0LHtaNLvYGT9q1ldGGHl083GCNiu4WZJVleoLWyrfHbnysIOCx4yB9qWW1Rw0IqaetZM7IzG0YwkpcdIWh6Rjva0u2K1nBlttd2jnirg8TNPskPxhV1zsbYL4Lc%2BoYxrnexO7kB3Ty70eF1tc%2BjVgfxPAW%2B%2BI3gea9S4kpRcLBX0J5yRHR%2FqG4XmnDdlq7LxRSEzxOdCdTsZGth2OPsK9fkha6UNfnB5Lw5P2ljUmpqvmQkxuwdiCujKfEY491bcY202viSvpCPZbKXM%2BB3Col0Tt5HrhAKyndG8DxGDLHLKPaWuLSMEc1r2O2a89Niqq9U0XqkdSxoa8v0ux1QUStLLeam11DZIZHDB6FVpXKlm1besttBxPCaq2aKe54y6Dkyb4dnfisXUU8tNM%2BGeN0cjDhzHDBCdo6yaklEkLiCCtcyei4sgbBW%2Fua9o%2Fd1LRk%2FB3cLHeNGHwgq5unDd0tlP6zUUzjS6ywTs9puR59FTrcu0IkXSRVSISoAQIhGEuECYQukmECIC70LpkTnvDGNJcTgADcqLo31S4Uqrt1XRCN1VTyRCQZYXjGoKOB3UWEwjC7AC6Dco1o2Go05T4j8l2yPByptfE0yFoGqT7ApkFZJBA6KP2Q7mVHfnKFL2zZornajknKs4oi6nZJp2VXyBK0VnqYpaVsEhAe35rGfUb4%2FaJCwukxjZTvDA2Us07G7twEwRv7wXl5be2npFWMw1zcc2heG1DcSvHZxXu1Q32qxv1AvDrgNNXM3tI4fNd0cKJ1Uxv8OnPkR81EUxv8Cn%2BLvxQOXY58E%2FUCr1Y3IfuoD9RV3VQKDjplJlBRhUCUjA5pMI5KA5rvQhgyd04VKscaQE9TZEmeyaJT1OdiVFavjFurhqicekg%2FBYt3vAdgtxxT7fCdK7tIz8Fh3byH4Kobl6JtdyclwqO404z6SaZzTjOZUqul03quSu2rI5cldo20rqOIzShmQB5pZ4TE7yQMtJDsjml3JynhFFqcWPy3Tnfv2XMUZfgDml6bk2vuBqT1niCnyMtjy8%2FYvoKzgeEwLyvgOwVdtiFbWU74vWWgxaxjLe69TtTtmjC%2BV8jOZcjv4sNcdWtTTQ1dM%2BCdgfG8YcD1XjHHfB01gqGVlMTJQOfserCehXtjDsqjjCBlVwxcY3jOIS4fEbr24c%2FGubKbmnz0wnW5g6Fb70d3CnEkluqmNJl3jLhnfsvPoHa5Xu77K74ekEF6o5HP0gSjc9F9DLuPDjvjk1V%2B9H9RWXOWopZYY45Dnc4wqCr4ZrbO5sxlEoY8agGnGMr0Diu%2By2q3tmpHNkc4ge03uvPZrze7s5zGeNIw%2B82Nmy88bXRyTCX%2FAFqJDb7XCy4No3wz6R4jRs147gd1R8UVVDcmw1lHI9xafajf7zQtdY2G%2BcLOpqpgMmksyWdR591i5eELzRtkmdABDGC4nWOQVlm%2B0zl11Gro6iadltrqpviQAeH47Dgta7bDvtxuvVaYiSlidzOkbr5wZXVUkDacVEvgt%2Fww8hv3L3L0e1j6zhinMrtUkRMbiT2UyxeOWflGa9KnDbK9gudMz%2B0tbpfj6QC8fLNyDsR0K%2BieM6J9VbNLJ3wN1jU9nMBeXXPgJ8kM0tsqTM4f4bhgn7VcMtdVfC5Y7jFuB8EtHMo4gtFVDw3SXI%2F3aWcxgY6gc%2FxUqyWmtuNxitrI3GfVh2R7o6kr1jjuxRv9H01DTRgmkjbIwAcy3mfxWeXkmJhhv2%2BcSFyQnZG4KbK9YxY5IwrG1V7aJr9vaJGCq8pMbojdWTiItFXG4ukpqgYmizkPHbB2z2KZu%2FB0M1F%2B0OGp5KqED97TyY8SP7uYWQgmfBIHxnB%2FFa7hyurtRq7Y2YPiGZNDSRjz8l55TXcWMY5haSHAgjmFyvSrjaLdxZG6ehbHR3cDL4sYbKe%2FxXntZST0VQ%2BnqonRSsOC1wwrjnKaR0iXCVeiOV0BlAC0XBNvtdx4gpqa91BgonH23ggfZk8kGe0Ec1NoLVV10NRNTRhzKZmuU5A0hen8RcI0tt45oaaw0jn0c0TXOJaXtaD1yVP4Z9H4tPEFRDc54ZaScOjZCHFpeOhXnlyY4%2B3pjx5ZTpmaXgKhf6P38ROuJdVD2vAbgNAzjB65V5W2KmrbZbrnwhamMgMXgzRy7P1kbuydz8VqOHaCz2GartcUFQWyt9p7xra455ZOwUthqoIKiCo8EQud%2B7MYw5o7Lmz%2BXNfi6MPi3fbM3z0d%2FtO2W5%2Fr00LIoiHNedYDzz0%2BS8mv9nqLJcZKKp3czk4cnDuvdKeelttFofXAQtJdiWfVj4LyDj28QXq%2BOnpTmJjQxrv5sdV5cHyM%2BTk9dPXm4MePD%2FWZA3UqCLUmm7lWtria%2BVoPLK7M8tTbw48d3T0T0eejenvdCbjdnSCAktjjYcF3mSqj0i8G0%2FDc0Zoy8xSE6Q45K9y4PgipuG6CKEgtEQOR1Kxnpn8FtBRveMuEhx9y4uWZYeOcvt6cWe%2BS8d9dvApGEE5TeDhXVS%2BGoe2N0YZnclV9TAad%2BknORkLtl258p2ivGwb3SlzmEFpII7IJzJ5BJKtMOzcKrl4z8fFMmeUnJkd%2F7k25c6grqHlX0FOP7RUDvF%2Ba8QvTNN0qm%2F5rvxXuc4%2Ftrh3iK8U4jbpvVWP8wr1jyVCtrWyOQQiVupoc7bPwVURurO2HEcZ7SFSjRVho2WyaNtDCXGMjU4ElvmFieq2FUM00o7sKx6kCEpUiFQJUiEDzRgLrGyGHI%2BxBHZStQ24KTGwsiz3TQbqOE%2BNJZo9rYbZQa6%2FDXwXCexjKwrd5HLf12H8EfBjCPvCwlOMulJ6BRUeVNJ2Xl9qaViO405H7xTcadj5lKArphSE7fBdNGyyHIXBsmTslnk1gNH3pl2yAikA3Ws9HtojvXEdHSTfw3Py74DdZXqtHwNeBZOIaKsf%2FAA2Se3%2FpOxXnyentxe3vHFWBdIIm8o4xsnKH2cKBX1kVzujqimeJISG6HDqMKwpW4wvlctl5Lp9Hix1xSVbxnICiX1odZK8E4Bp3%2FgpEJ9lVXGlWKLha4zH%2FAMJaPidl7cfuOPKPnWN2h3PAU6lqYoamKUu1aHh2Aq5jQTzH2qQzLe32L6jk%2B3ps3HFofTMaKV8rtO4Mew%2B0rmPih0dK%2BupLTN6q12lzxs0EjkmeDY7RWwU8XqoiqqgiHMwPhvIzkh35fBaDiWR%2FD1dQvrmRVdnLQ2eniGkMf%2FNp7cufmvLXb1vNkzVn4krIJZ3U1sfLDK7xAwBx09yrO6cW1lNC6KsskkAkBbiVpbnbzCm%2F9ZWWmpDTuEsmjMTWxNADotWppB7jZVfFHFtPxVRxUcdDKKhjsxPc4AefyWtRn%2BXORkLZb5bjWthgABO%2B5A2XunA1qitVihET3OM7RI%2FJ21cjheCxz%2BG%2FLSWuHUFeseim4yT0skMskrtBw0PmGAD2aVrKdPNvK%2BmbWUU1M%2FlIwtz2XgdXfbrHUy0ck5jkheWHSME4OF9CheBekqi9R4srXsbpY94fkDb2gCfzU1Fxys9Nf6OzC2nfMWN8eRx1vPvH7Vt5o2zwvieMse0tI8ivLuB6wxN57OcvT6WQSRggrk5f2dmvwmT5i4ttEllvlXRSNxoedPm08iqMhez%2BnCx6oqW8xN3b%2B5mx2%2BifxC8acMFdHDlvFz8k1TZSckpSL1eYytPwVxlcOEqqSSi0PilwJoZBkPA%2FBZhAKlm4PanW53HdIy%2B8PQ0lHUMz40Am9vUOvLAVJXspbu11r4iiNNcYvZjqdO%2BfNYC1XevtM%2FjW6rlp5Oro3Yz8e69ftEvDXpApfCYySjvoj1PyS7WQOeeq4M5lwd%2B49prOdvI77Yqyy1HhVTMsd7krd2vHkqteqVMFZbQbVxJQvkpXnDHOG48wVjL3w5JSyzS20vqqSPdzg3eLycuri5ZnNx55Y6qgAXrHA3BUJ4cjvVXQmqmkJdCxx9nA5Lz2y2h9bMx8%2BY6bPtPxuR5ea%2BjLA%2Bmt9sp7dTyCaiMX7l46t%2F57rHyb%2BHt68E%2FLaBWVU1RR041G3yxhrXZIdnH5JKmOOuqGSV2madvuvPT4Jy5siaHeMWCJu%2BpxwFi7vxzZrdUZg11czRjEWzR9q%2BT5cnLbI%2BrMePDGVuzE1jMl2cLAekfidlFTG30cuamQYeW%2FQb%2Fys3d%2FSZcqtjo6KFlK07as6nLE1FRLUSulmeXvcclzjuV1cHxMvLefpzcvysdax7oL3OJyeaQZTYXQK%2BlJpweVvs407qZTzFh2KgtKca5SzbeN09i9HfpCit0Yt92mLaf%2FAA5Dvo8vgovpY4nors2mgop2TCMlxLDsvLBIR1XRcS3C5L8becy36e8zkvlrtNhcyZ%2Fhy83DAKYrC90mHfQGlcUJ%2FtkWf5gpF31R1UoALWk5C6nNkrAcuKVwykZ1KUlaYMSJrCekCbwtI%2Bipx%2FbYz3jcPwXivFzdF%2Bq%2F9a9rmP7%2BmPdpHyXjfG7NPEFR54XpHmzx5qdRE%2BrO8nqC7mptF%2Fd5PIhSi1qnO%2FZYdqOckLN8lo6j2rOfJ35LOpAmUJcJCgEIA2Qg7a7BCdBGU0GHGcEjugbKVqVZ26KKUvMmNuQyps0UIgJDWgjkqeF2BnqpPiZGFNK107geCnY5eGPxWOs1OKmeSMuDQWncrWHfgmX%2FAEfmsnaZ2QSPc5ocXNwAThQqHXxthmkYwghrsAjqoifqsmRx7lMLUZds5pyP3iuGJxnvFRSu67LtvJcEYXTSgUML3Bo5okY6I4K7hIEgynatzSwDIJRUTUnInHIA6pnqplri8a4U8ZHvSNB%2B9Zy9N4e49y4ZOilhYeYY0fJamnOcLJWsmNwHRaakccAr4t%2FZ9jW8FzFs1Yr0v1Xg8LCEHeaZrfu3WygdqavMvTRXNMlvoM74dKR8h%2Ba6%2BHHeTgz628pDgDuNk417ejiuXNxySsa09F9JxVobFxC%2B30z6OoYZ6RzhI1oOHRyDk5p6La8N2mo9IIkrLndHMiikDHU8Y9rHTyXlrW4PNer%2Bi6J9PGLnRFzRGRDWU7vpjmHhZsI2Uno%2B4djt7ooqB7pA32X%2BIdZP4LyPieOqt1S231VC2lbCSWYbu8E8yeq%2BhYZ4pseG8OBbkEHmFkfSbZP2pQUkjGAeFMBJIG7tYdifsSI8OBbjIK9Psl9bw5wvaxV0cYkq5sxv1e1pDhuR0Wph9HfDcTGaaLMjW41l7jk98ZxlecekHhqos81JUvqKiqDiWgycm45DyVyvSx7kxwcwOHIjIXnHpVZRNfDHLE589UwgEDkRyK2nDFX69w%2FQ1BILnQgOx3Gx%2FBUfpBtRrTbKqOQMkgmxv1BXmT2844cY6KkZzDgd16XYKgviaD2Xm1smlZcaunqRpkZM7I%2B1byzO8OMELn5fb6XFN4aT%2BLbY28cPVtE4ZL4yW%2F6huF8vVMZilexww5pwR5r6qdWOc3TG3JXz56RrK%2B0cRT5biGoPixkct%2BY%2Bwpw56y08OTjsx7ZEpF0QuV2OUhSLpCqECl26vqbbVx1dFM%2BGeM5a9hwQoilUVDNVuPhjDG7ueeQWcpLO2pb9N%2FbOKuI%2BM547ZURw1T42l7CyMMdkbZJTlwgu3Dtzjbc4vV5JwPDm1amHuHd1I9FUFqobrNPPK7WIvYeXaQD1W%2FvVfa67hi41FQ%2BOpghYcHnv059V4STG6xjonHvHdYC60Gul9Yog3xA3VJTtbjSO7e7PgmuGuLBZonMuj3GFuXxY5td2A7Hks5aeI5qFvgy5fCDlhz7UR7tP5KxudsoL%2FEypZUspqlxA8XB8F%2Be%2F8pW7PqvGZavSs4z42rOJKk6R6vRj3IGH5lZRzjlSrpbqq2VLqetiLHjkeYcO4PUKGtYYY4zoyzuXsZRlIhbZdAroLgLoKLHQTjVw3dPwsyVmtw7FC55AA3V7X8LXO3WqG4VcHhwze5k7%2Farf0d2Bt3v9JFL%2FAAg8Of8AAbr170l2cVvDDxEAPAIfjyXJy8mc7x9R04zGZTHL7fN8LhDUMe4bA7qVfZWzPY9hyNOMrm4QeFI4HoosntQDy2XRjfKbePJj43RgckFIOSVejxNlpc8NHMnAUp9sdG4tdPECOYyob%2BaTOeaukfQhdqbRP%2Fmx%2BC8n9ILdN%2FkPdoXqcR1W%2B3SeTD94XmHpH%2F8AW892L0jzZEqwtntRzt8sqvKsbPu%2BRvcAKUWPO0yA%2FwAwWecN1omb2yYeazxGXYSDkJ%2BKnke3UyJzx3A2Cb0kLttRNG0tjke1p5gOVDYG5CRzUo5FGrZRTkbiInNycHmMpslSaJzRnLASSOasY4o%2FXHtLG4LOylEOKhmLGkAb7810yIxyuE%2BcAdO6kiujadJjOW7c1DkqBNM4gYyoNhHh3BdQByDDz%2BKxFK3Mjj2C29C0u4Mqs9WOWLoxvJ3wjSHP7zvimQn6n33%2FABTCrJyPmnG%2B%2BU3H7ycb75UUp6oHNKeqRvNB044SZzzQ4EkABBa5vMIrnqrbhdmu%2BUg7SZVSRhyuuESBfafPc%2Fgscn61vj%2FaPZqSPEbHK%2FpR7DVR0jwYowr6j5BfF%2B32d%2FgsIXYavCvSpcRWcXS6DlsDGxD7Nz8yvcp3CKB0h5NBJXzTfKj1y4VVRnJdO8%2FNd%2Fxp3twc36uYHtk9k7FLJGWbqva4tOQVNhqzs2UZHdd7hqVSU7qmSNrHD23Ac%2BWV7pYOBp7a0TU9e8eJG3IcMn714XA6MSB8MmlwOQvorgK%2FMutiphNPE6pjaGvAeMn7FmgbRXq31cdTGG1UbAWuZsCQUnEHEdvjs1ZHchNSyOic0RvYQXHB2BWoe9rAC44BOFjfSFJBDPan1EQlh8R3isxzZpw75Ep6Pav4V9IkFXBSUE1PNLWnEeWY9vbmj0uR1klnpjBE8tc8B5Azo674TI4RtlqtTr3DUjW17XxTR8msJx9%2BCr%2B03Saoppmzyx1MLYS4HG5GOqlWMVYOM62x2WOn9Wje1kxzqP0SBt9%2BVsbVxNaeLAKOSN0U49sMfyOOxXl1xq2Ojkp5G6XOf7BA805whcYLNfoausDzCxrtWgZPLspBbcR2K9UNznv1eKdtPJKGFsb8lo5NWhtNa3wBsDlZzjziulvXDbn0Ur2Rvqm6WPO5AC44PuHrNIwOO7divLlx6dnxs%2FpuI5S95%2FJUvGtgHEVndTsaPWovahce%2Fb7VYQSADOd1Y072yAZacrky67jsy1ZqvmGqppaed8M0bmSMJa5rhuCo%2BCF9PV3Ctiu73SV9vikkdzfjDj9qxvEHoeo5mvlsVYYZOYhqN2n%2FAHDcfNdGHyp6yfNz49Xp4lhABJwFqr1wFxBaAHVdI0xk48SKQOb%2FAPfsVpaOE%2FVqAXJzfWNDsSEbiFy6ZnMpuPK42e2es9hfK9k1bG5sOfcOxctvfeHW2u3QPppI5KGpj1wvZ%2BB81OdVUFbbIdcB%2FaNKcyMzhs8X%2FKprLdjcHVdulhkNI%2FLm6TnwXdD8FLVxm70q7La66SB9X6vIKLVofKNgSVIvBuVFZTRVMEjYBKHl5dkuHJv2Ld2imEnC0lDgu8Jwdnod8qPdqE1NjfUzD901rozkb4xz%2B9eUz3XZlwSYdPJayoZURx6WBrmN0uIGMos1%2BqLW6RkUmY5Wlj43DU148wkmo5I6OadoJjB06vNUvVe%2BnDXoBfQ36ijp65xDmtxDO0%2Fw%2FLHZZC82iqtNR4dQ3LHbxyt3a8eRTNFXS0rwWnLeoWtt10prhSmlq2CWB3NjubT3CzqwYdCnXqiioa10VPOJoju13UeRUBbHSVq5QCop0FPwuwooKdY7CjcrZ8FcROsl1gqRu1rhqb3HVeycXcR0ddwZPV0kuWSMGO%2FwXzcyYtOcqW25T%2BrGnEsngk5LNRxn4Lk5eHLLrG9OrHPC2ZZe46rpvEkcc5yVxKxgoQ5jsn6QUOSTJyuRIfDLei6McfGaeGefldka7ZGpNtK6W3k5cd0JDzXQAWma93ong8P25%2BfoR%2FkvN%2FSN%2FwCrM82fmt9bH6%2BFKF2eUbPkQsJ6RY8V8R8itxhjlOtLtMrj2wfmoKlW%2FwB%2BQZ0%2Bwd1KL0MxTVTegOVnM6Xk%2Ba0kR10szv5ogT8VTUmqKujcHRNIdkOkAc0fEJBELi%2FonJYHNY07bp%2Bomf6w92qNxfsSxgAPwXMji0NDznHRRYYbD%2B71POG%2Fimc7qQ%2BXXKCdwOgXDmjJdg6UDtLU%2BG0tEbDnqRuFY079dY0nqxU8Zw9WYmjZUxPadg3fClWI1QxrQ9xcdZccBR4D7RynK5wM7tPLOU1DzKv0n239qOrg6pHZjlhqI5kf%2FpW2sp1cJ1Tf8tyw9D%2FHd5tUapiqHtuUdSav33KMFUORe8nB75TcXvJwbSKUdnGFyOaV3JI3dQPQDM7U9V6PDy1RDthDnk81Ry45OVY8OyeHeaV3L95hVpT1HJ4NVFIPovBWcp%2BNbwv5R7jb5NRYOy1lANgVhbdMRp9k%2B0MjHRaO03MxzCKfl0K%2BNlNZPr43yx0suLag0vDddM0bthdj7l850QEks3i506CT8V9L1kENyoZKacaopWlrgD0XjHFXBj%2BG2VM7JNdPIcRk8wOxXZ8bOTpxc2N8WLEcR5kgqRHDGG7uafNRvCJ7HyynWMaCPZc0%2BW6%2BhHEf007ev3KTRXQ0cgdTyvY5pyHA7phsbNOXPb9yUCAH3gfgrobyj9JFTHYH0j6iSWt9YbIyWQ5w0Y2%2B8KXL6SaiVjJK6igqqyPZhdHhjB357ledlsDjtEXH4LtrQNxFj4lTxTb0qLj%2BgrLLV2ua2%2BrNqAdbmyHSCT0GNlM4DuFspnzQwVIMcrcSeO7do8v%2FAL0XnNpt9bdq6Oit8XiTScmgch3PkvYOGPRtQUMbZrufWqkjOjOGN%2F5WbDy0wV2dQVF48BkhOZtALT0zzUmax10V2Yy3RmUEgxvI9nHn%2Ba9dPDdkczQ61UpHfwxn7%2BazXG9oraCztlssxZS0%2Bouh05LAeeCd8eSnjr0TLbw7itvgXSWna1jfCeQTGctJz0Urhi%2BmhlAf7p5qoq2ubUvY4536qMf3b8t2SzcemGVxu49jpL3HO1pjcCCr6nuDQ9uD0XiNvuslK4FriPLotNScSvk0jm7ouXPi%2Fp2Y82529lgq4%2FB1OcAFTXXiJjZPVqVwMztmtzzKw1Rdq%2F8AZM1RHIA6P3m53aO6qrBNHWXJklXVGEZzJLguLcbggfFYw%2BPu%2Fkxnyyemkhqv2jcX0N%2FnfTxvyA5w%2Fgu6fZ0UMXJnDkklMySSVs2qOtjc0aC36Jb9m6fvlWeJKaevj0CpomYqOniszs8Dv3Co23GiqKWmZcWxmSAkCTUdT2dA74Lq1MJ05%2B8r2fpbTUVNT48T3RUrTqbNjdw8vsSQV1vpBP6tCIomux5vPUlSqjjCibTiBrmgAYGOizUUlE%2BSaolqGtjB1YIXj%2BWd7dE8cPTYWK9%2BDDVOeCWvGGRNHzJWX4n47qJz6hTACnb7%2Bk8z2VNfOKJKiI0tAfChxhzgMFyzBJJyvXDj0zyc9s1GpqK6OexVbWsDA57TpHQ4WUKvKZofZavfdulwVIV7uVynIZnwu1RuwU2hB3LK%2BZ%2Bp5yVwhIoBdBIEIrpLqXCE0uzodlONOAVHBTjORU0uyucu4GeISB2ymjzT9DJ4dSPPZNG0cbOIXeUTt0VD2%2BaRGRjJS7rpmMFIQg9gsEmvhOl32DT8isx6SG%2FvoHfFX%2FCZ18KsHYuCpfSO3LKZ3n%2BS9IwwRUii%2FiPHdhTBT9BvPj6p%2FBKLq2u1UUgJ3DCqzwPFkwDhTLdJoDmnk9pCabJFC%2F2jk9lkcVUcVIW6Pafp5%2BfdQHEuJLjklSKuo8d4wMAclFc7CaV0wtEmXjI7KSWk0hd9HPJRMZ3TpmPhaOiUNN2I2wFOgcHzweyNjg%2BarwpUDjE3WRy5KUdXcAVrsDAIUaH3k%2FcJRNK146twVGjOHKw%2B294dGeGKsfUcPksPTZbOHAjHIracJPMllrWE8mu%2FBYVxwSinrhEYpN3NdkAgtOVBXZPNcIldxbOTzv4iZZzTucvUUruSG8kp91KzB5oEduuSCOadjwZQFIrWMEeWkHfmggZStdggrh3NKEHonDXEzKgRxzkCVoA%2BK2kdUyVodGOR3%2BC8Kje6Nwcw4cNwQtlw%2FwASvJbFKQJehPJy4ub4%2FwBx28XP9V7Vaapr4xpO3ZSL1bYbvbZqScAskb25LBWy9GOQSR%2F7mrdWq5w1kTS132Lj1ca6svym48E4k4fnslwfTzglmfYeOTgq%2BOBu2c%2FevoHibhymvdE%2BN7RrO7XdivF73ZKyyVfgVUZA%2Bg%2FGzgvpcHN5TV9uDl4td4%2BleyCPnpT7I2dGgLlq7yQF0uYriGjYJtxc4hrQXPccNaOpXR7lbr0T8LPul0F4rIv7JTOzFqGz3%2Fopaleh%2BjvhePh6zsfNGPX6hodO8jcdm%2FYtZhCFJGKEjmNkY5kjQ5rhhwPIhKgKkfMXGdr%2FAGbe62mY3HgzOA%2F052%2BWFnwdWc816f6YLbLFxI6pjhe5lTE1wc1uQSNiFj7PwvPV1DPWj4GsExsPOQ9vJSvSKiht1TXyFtNEXaRlxHJoWgs9LFbK6KUTRtDd3vkbkfADzWttlqfHQPrqCJsUtv8A7xTnOXDvjr5qtv8AFQCsprtRxOfbZyGzwnnE7q38wVh6RC4oqba10NRZXyS00gBka5uzH9WlV2DYai3Xtnhz0VQSdGsHIGzmOHRW96udtszXUsNHSVNJPSYaGu3cSPZeezgV55M9z8Ak4HRVE%2B%2BXgVtbM%2BhjfTUz3HTFq3APTKpnPcebj967ITbgqjklIXHGMnCUhJhUclINyEuE%2FRxh1TEHDLS4ZCC8sckDY6uOaDxWeEctL8ZPRZt4w4r0SWnpoWvbFTxs1MAyB5FeeSe%2B74qo5SFCECISpEAlXUbDI4NaNytX%2FwBCVrYaaV1ZShs7c7uxpXrx8OfJ%2BsZyzmPtkkL0E%2BjKbw6d7LrSTCT%2BJ4TgfC3xvuoVRwdbqKtkjqL7DNEx2NULDk%2FZv%2BKv8OR5xi1JiLRA7I3J2WzrOG%2BGo2QmguFRVOe322FhboPxOyzl4tjqADTvHnbdeeWNjUy2qTzQ0lrg4cwk6oWFOSkv9s8zzSDkpDY8Qe0Qc7jCilQdtK71BcR41NDuRO6sqigphKRBVsdHsQSd%2BSlNPQOBn%2BJw9JH0DioPpEbmgpHeY%2FBSvR%2BdVlnb2kTXpAbmyUzuxavWMPOSpFuOKtmeuQo%2FMp%2BiH9rj%2BKUTaYl3u%2FR3UGqOmd481bWtmpzm92lVVc39%2BT3AKypnU3PXC5JyjG6MeaqOg9obgg5SHBGy52%2B1dYAailiYZJGxt5kgK0ulO2ja2I4J23CiWt4jqxK5ocGDOCluNSaiUvxjyUHNbAI2xuB2cFFacFWFd7VDA5VreaQbjgk6rfWt8j%2BCxMoxI74rZ8CHMNY3uPyWNqtppB9Y%2FirAz9ErhPFuIzlMqK7j95On30zGd07zelHROxCVvNcnqlasjokggpXvc9u%2FILlyPEcI9HQ7qhl3NKh3NAVQoXbCWuBBwRyK5XTUV6JwhQ3O42mS4U8YkEDtJaObwry2V0lO8vhJbg%2B1GTuCp3onM1FwuKtrx4ZmdqYW52ypHpEtkdPV0FdaxqfXSua4NOOmVw5YzO2OvDl8K01nu8dZTg5AeOYRfLVR3uifT1DQcj2XdWlecUdzko6jDzhzTggLY266tlaHMfnyyufLDLCurG459x5lf7DU2WpLJGl0RPsyY5qvihkkcGsYXOPQBe2SR0tzZoqomSt6hw5rQWejs8DQ2koKaB%2F1Yxn7128PPMpq%2B3H8jguHc9PI%2BF%2FR5cb1OySvY%2BkoQcuc4Yc8dgPzXttBR09vo4qSjjbFBE0NYwdAnpJGRRufI5rGMGXOJwAF5dxd6TyJJKLhzTn3XVbhnH%2BkfmulxPQ7terdaI9dwqo4s8mk5c74BYe5ek%2FLiy0W4vb%2FAOWodj%2Bkf8rzyIzXKV09bPJNPnJke7JKsYaMNbz5IsxTq3jniWdxxVthHaKMBSrRx1do3gTzySvaPdcAQ4%2BZ6BQK60VcdEat9K%2BOA4xK7kuLRGyUmOmgLyR7cf0pW9x5qVqSNZxBxRPdad0EdI1jYsGeJx1OLe4PZRaaxtFukM9Qzw3aZKCqL8EPP0cfLyKahfFZ618VdTyS1tPE71fDtPiDHI9yFU1VRTsoi6eRzbXUZfERu6mmHT4LD0kWdZfLnW0L5oWRxVNA%2FNbBpx4o5avMdCFh79xHTUklXTWKQmkrY2%2BKyVn8N3MgfA8io92v1x4mrooqdkUUgiELpGHR4wHVyh3Hgy40e89VQZIzhlSHH5KooZJw4kk5JTTpWqZ%2Bx5M4M8Xwbk%2Fkk%2FY7zsJHH4ROV6RBMjcLgvGVYiyVJfpGs%2F8A8Tv%2BEs1grGA6WPeegbGd1RVlwSZCnixXM8qGf%2F2pxnDt0dnFI8Y7kD80RV53Xs3CvBNjq%2BDaWrngL6uSMymdriCD2%2BC8vh4duT3Y8DT%2FAKnBeucK8N1J4KZDVXSsic8OcI4Xt0tHbln5rg%2F5DLLHCWXXbq%2BLJbdsrX6PFAZuMAfivN5hiVw%2BsV6HWYZUsY07YAWQ%2FZD5pZHumjiGo41HmvocWNyxmnNyalqoykV2%2BwxiEOFdCZM40pIuH3vbk1dOPIuVyxuPtmXalTtKxslTEyT3XOAPwV3Fw8wPb4tbTlueQcd1f%2BrcNRU8bIrdT%2BO0DXK%2BqlfqPw5KdaVWXC2AVcMdDSta3HQbfapRqqqDwYjy912eilVFwY9oijr46eH%2BSCHG3xKiV8VjkkzDW1pZ9YDJKuHJlOolxl9rB0z56WSnZIxmoe8s41s5c3RnLdlYw0FC1he2eua3q5xDQlguVspnggzyAHcOcMH5LW9ezXRun8WXTGfZazJ5KqvnjNk8N0jnRk5GQtA%2FiO1teXQUIb2zIThZu7VcdbP4kYI7gnKZZY66JKrHck2U%2B6NzvdBPwC4jhfLK2ONpL3HAC81IHuDcZ2SDJVlV2G4Unh%2BLDnXy07qbJYZ6OBscxPizM1aGtyR2WblI1JVDGwyPDWjJJWrpeFZJKeN743aiMnZS%2BErD6vViaua0gjAaei2ElG0vPhVD2M6NB2C5eXn1dR08XDudqH0dyf2Crb2cCpXHDdfDzD2I%2FFVno7f%2B7rWeTSrbi8Z4cPkfzXc4nmJOCnaRwFVGfrJpyWE4mjP1gqLy0H%2B1Fp6OIVZchiUd9x81Y2vavP8A%2B4fxUG6txI7yeVBBXKXGy5QCUlIlQSadzWQOORkpknLcpH7NAStGYiipEk5lo2x6dmnmooBynIz%2B6cFxqQbHgI5dUt8v%2BVkKwYqph2efxWr4Ad%2FaZx3aFl7iNNfUDtI78UHDm%2FuT9iiKwk%2Fuzu%2BGqLHE1%2BN1FNs5p3k5D4hGQQcpPpIjolK0pMbobzUU41oc9oPLKnT08boXFgOpoyMDp1UBpIORzCkSVj3RaGnTtg46hBBPNCHDdAVHQTjAmwpdFTyVNRHDE3U97g0BPpHvXo2gaeCKGJg1PlLiGjmd1saCxxRwsFaG1BY8vY14yGE9lG4HsMVhsFNTty%2BYxgyPP4DyWhXPhxatrOWbzb0kcFGoY%2B72ePRO0ZmiZycO4Hded2O6VEFQIng%2BZX0YQDsdwvG%2BOuH%2FANh3316JmKKoORge67qF6ZYTKaXj5csas6Kolw2SPljpyWioqzLWuzgrzmhujYJA6CfHlnGVaw3SOSTLH6Jc7jllcWfDcbuPqcXPjnNVvrvSR322GjqpJfDdz8N5bn49155dfRxJAdVqn8TfeKXY%2FYVrbVeiIw2ZuSOyuBVRTtAB%2FRMeXLFnLgn9PJ47XWWt4bWU74idvaGx%2B1SppoqdpD%2Fac4bR%2BXmvUKmCK4UT6afdjhgO6tPcLye%2B2ips9a6Kpa58Tj7Dwc6x3J%2FJdmHJ5OTk4ri3fBdXSXO3i21eiSF7ceG4Z0O8iVkeMrZNwrdmPo5HNb%2FEjk6%2FeqWlraimna%2BBxa4HLdK2lXxPSXfh8UVwp5pLg0%2BydPu%2Beey9fp5emf1z1VBLcg2QwB4f4x%2FwZc7gE8weyp6y700Ec0rQXSPGXEs9nVnoOW%2F5LbVFonqeABBTFznUtSZZI29WHqsdFBb36qeSJ8hPtauyTBLmo2cTzlx8KIZH8sY2Sf8AVFUQTpOOp0hMXsMikjbTahMdQeW7ZHRcQx3eWZlRDQu0sbuWwnQdsZIWdLKek4lrgNWmQD4YXUN9rpWPe%2BZ7Ggbb7uKYoKuegZU%2BsxNl8Qfu2u3w7unJmQxUUz3MLnvjwCT7ru4UEWW%2BXZ7yxsswxzGU0Lxd3D2ZJ3EnAAJJP2KK59Z6sKXJMT3awzz7ruKW4MqmTxzObLTgaX53bhUPNulzcTq1uAGTudvj2XD7jWYDiXBp5F2cH7Ux4tcWyyGR%2FwDaD7eD7%2FxXPg1L%2FDp3PJY3cNLtgnQd9dri7GHE9xkr2Lgqjus%2FA7Sbi6B8%2BpzP3QJYO2685iqnRuZJC6GKVrdOWgfgvV%2BFv2jUcKMe6sj8WUOLHCPIaF87%2Fkstcc%2F9dfxf2rzWub4VTGwu1EYBP2rM1WkTSZqWg6j7L27LSXFro61jXu1OBOT3OVkrmW%2BPKDzDyvocVvhHPyT8q5Msf1c925C7Y4S%2BxG54ceWAq8uHdPUsmkHuNwt1hL9Wq8Z8R%2Bn4dlwAw5PrLyAMnZSWyMkgBDzqxyUb1Rh05ccnntyUCxtgc6MOndh7sc%2Fd8ypktPBTSaGFr3g%2B9zA%2B9RTDC3GGnbke6cja3SdQcSU2HopKatqpGXmvnjY2Mlr2jXqcOTcdAoJbQeqPkD3%2Bsa8NjI2x3yu3UwILiDk8knq0eRhu3XdNqSQW9ksQjdJJHpy86cEHsFIs9CLhVkAaYWblM%2BrtGdufJaiyU7I6LRFjW8ZKznlqN8eO6lRUlNHCWwRMGOuFT01PGziGAtaBncjzUuWtfb5HMmYQ08j0Kr6a4NdeYpgOWy8ZbXtnjNN6ZGNaHvYCByyqupqPWJ3TO97GAfJO3KTTTNJOM7rLXC%2BRQscyI6nrwuNyvRjZJurmpr20zdReB23UB3ElSCQOSx1VWTVLyZHH4JsTyAY1Fe2Px9Ttm839Nx6PHYqapueca0XEw1cOTeWVlvR87FymaesRWtvg12CqHbV%2BC7I5nlLsbrluzh8Up5rkoi8oCG3B2Tga%2BqjXhv71%2FYuyFzLkTvIPPB%2BSYmkOQCcqQRSVynntY7dpwey4LCAg4XTRkrkpyNvN3ZAPGXb8l0AAMN3ym%2Bi6Yd%2FsQdwM1FzW7kjYJktLXYOQR0XTJHRvDmnBCkNjFQ18r3HV0A6orQcAn%2FuMo7sCoL03TdKsdpSrzgU4uzh9T81WcSwFl0qpBu0yuz5FBEl%2FgOH1QobH6T5KVKf3Z%2F0BQlA686nasoOx3TY5rt%2FRNB3Q7Rqxt3XITet2MZOE43olHQ5LkpxjckjupFVSsjbmN5dtzwkKgu5pAlckCo6C2foupmz8WUpe1rgzJ9odcYWMC2novqG0%2FE1O5x6j8VL6SvphjQ1oaOQGEpSjdIVHjQoF6tNLerfJRVjcxvGxHNp7hT0IjwPivhep4erRFK4SQyZMUoHP4%2BaroZjBETKc6dw7svcOMaCluFnMVX7J1gRyctDjyJPQLxK8WuVr54nSN8WB5b4HIEfzealj2wtXNnvcU7QHOLXj6QGcrR2%2B7xSTNjndh3R%2BMZXlVHO%2BmkExJLAcZ7q%2BgrjXRuhdHI6Ju7ZIz7bFy58L6PFzfVeiXC7Pt8bnxZkjzv8AV81No6%2BjutO1k4ZINtnDK88sXETqCqdR3PE8Dtmvd2WytdHapagVFNUOazmYwdipMbPTo8sbO0Ou4YhZdZTDgQnDmjtldvpYqRuzQcDmrqeQOkc4bAlUl1k1BzGnA7r3m3zstb6Q38R1FkBlpHDP0oyMtcOxVZLxbw1UTOqKqxVFPUn3nUsoLXH4FUl7qhrcwOyFmKmQaSG8yd17T08LGqqOKrNTzumt9j8Wc8pa14dp%2FwBo2U3hP0h18N4b6%2BWyQyuDBC1oawAnB2A7LDUlFVXCdkFHA%2BaV3JrBlXtXbo%2BGPCfUTxz3Rzf4DDkQ%2FE9SmkSOPo6E8W1wthb6sHggM5B2MnH25Wfe3WNydue6I3PJc%2BRxc525PmV1lYrcNGMZ1JPDG%2FmnEhG6Djwm5G3JJ4bQc4TiRAgYOy3PDV74ih4fdSWm2mpijJDZtJOnPRYcnAXpXo%2F4mt1Dw6%2BlrahsD4XucAfpg9vNcXzv%2Bv8AXbp%2BPfy9sRVGUzxGcESZy4HvndZe9DFbL%2FqK1N2roam4umjdhjpCW554ys1fW4rpOx3XZxXeE28eT9qqk5EeaaTkR9perzT6Z4EQztgp%2BV%2BGZaVXjJjwOQKlx1J9TELWDGcl2FlQ2Uyv042ClBMQxFo1HmU8DhQdLhwwukFSK5Byr%2B0FtRBhh0ys%2BaoC05TtLVSUj9UZ3IwmeNsa48pjV1VSPeC2ogLmjqVWRmiimBZFg5TU1xlmOHvwOyftFN63XRjGWtOXErxmOvb2yzlaa%2FSN%2FYL5nM9kxgNB7leYvJJ3Xp%2FFBaLfSwOifIx7%2FcZzdgdF5hJs9wxjBO3Zb4tPHKuCUuQueaML3ebbcEBjbw0sJ9pjhhbS5M1Wesb8fwWC4NcRe4B3z%2BC9BqB%2FYKsf%2FeSFePvGDhcqZK6F0jsswc9E2IonHZ5HxREiVx1tH1G%2Fgo1TsQplQzSYyDkGMKNUtGBkpBEQSSMZXRaMpQ1RUmhtVVXZ8BoOAScnGAOa4jgJPhhzcnqTsnqWV0YO2QRjBVpbrTPU0z6oxP8AVw4NdJoJDT2ypctLpFuVkrLVbopK%2BmdC6bDoy76TTyIVMMZwTgL0K70UQ4bpGgtlc9xAc7OwWFrqSSkmMbx5gjkQpjluFmiRwMe4bnCdZH4UhAJworHFrgeykOmJd381UX%2FCLWsvI09WH8VA4hlEF%2FrWPbqjc%2F2mqbwnJ%2F3aL4FQOMW4v9X%2FAKgfktQV9UGNcRGcs07ZUBWNQ3LAfqriloG1GrXUMhI5B%2F0kEJvMJyTonqyhlopWslLTqGQWnOyae0uADdyga2ynRnAXMkZZ72Mpxo1N2UX07ifh2Sn56kOZhgxnuo7B08l03w9DtWdXTskRHduUbrsZJ2CcDcDdUNNz0CtLFVOorlBONtLgoYATjMZCJX1lYLgy52mnqoyDqYM46FWBXkHoc4k0arZVO%2FdvP7tx5auy9fUeWREJUiMmqmniqqeSCdgfHIMOaeq8s4zsU8j3RPIbU00ZdFKTj1iIcm%2Bbhn8F6wq692wXGlAYQ2oiOuGTHuu%2FVRvHLT54r7dURU3rMIMkJAErg33Hdk3azWx1Ino4nNxjIHL7V623g6SsuLKmBvq8UjcVEUzScO67Hn3BWqouF7PRRxsjo2HR1cM5PdNbevnr084s3B3%2FAFI41jzFGY3DXGNslPXSpgtlXFTx07aWaJpEkbTz816dW1dFaKJ9RUyR09PGMk8h9gXjfFnEEHEt5ilpYmQRRjSJZBu4d3K%2BMWc%2Bd6Taq%2BNfHiM4KpbhdJpR4cGp8j9gGjJJ8lV1s0T6qGmtzZHueAzTjJe%2FuPitBLVs4Si9Vo9Mt7e39%2FPjPq%2Bfos8%2B5VmG6zc9KuThGtMbZ71WQWtrtwyY5kI%2F0hJBaeG6d3tOqrg%2F6x8Np%2B7dQZjLJL49dJI97zkknJKWNwMnsDDei9Zhp53NpLvPLbrDI6zMiohgZbTswSOuXcyvO2h8j3TSuL3uO7nHJK9KgYKy1mN2CHsLSvP5IjFK6MjBYSFjkmmsLs3yC5OycITFQ%2Fw2%2Ba8XokxU0krdTAMeZUyjslVWEiHwyQP5lWQTgjGVZUl2FGwhp3PUFZ3q9ro7Nw7XQtLpRE1o5kv2Cp5C1kjmBwOnqOSl3q9SVVE6MPO%2FPdUltr2w1GqoaZANw0nbK3uVNVNzqOegXSfpLm1jnPfRxvyPYyNgoz5i92fB0gnJwVGr05YWSVLWOaCWnnnkpPEUglt7GimjjDD7wGSft5qFG8NrfZ5EdQpV61OoiScjbC1GWYXTOa57obzWkTIcljw3qVJgZyb2UWkd7RU6Dbn1Wap5JgIKQnAysjqPSX%2B1yVxZXUTbhA6qha%2BBrwZGn6Q7LOl7g7IXXjyfBJ1dr9Pa5r9wJBGXNstM5wGwMI3XmV7ulpuVbLUeAKUE4ZBTtDWhUTpZH83KJ6tJPVCKMFz3dBuvWctjynHIm0VvkuFfpp92DcknkFsLbRR0D3OJaN8EqBYLPLTnQT7Z3fjoofGdw8KRtDA4DSAZCO657fLLUe06jXcSUni2ZtQyURvg9sO77LyyvEGsGB2rIy4%2BalVF9uFRQMopZi6JoxhVhC1hh4pbtzhdhhwuU%2B14wF6sbX%2FCbtN8pfN2PkvSJBmCrH1R%2Ba8x4ddovVGf8wL1DmJx3YpFryGpbieQfWKZKlXIaa2YfXKiHKqLFzi5kGf%2FABhM1YwGHuE60fuID5YS1rSYo8DO3RRU6gpLVPZZZNU5ubHbR4Hhln45Vf6w6KnfA2OPDzuS3cJumklp3a4w4O%2BCbc2RxJLSsxbTrG%2FSzstLaeJpKa1C2yMYYQ8vBA3z5rMRtcIznOSlZFINs5UymyV6zejZo7TZmVUngOfAXNfG4HB%2BsMLESXWiZUA11PBXtgGljXkgEZ8kzxS50goo2kjw4QN1QNjIzkjfzWMcNTtq1ZXe5UlcWeqWumotJJPhZJd8cquccj3QuNOCeSN%2B69NM1d8MuYLvT6M75zn4FM8bDF%2Fn8w0%2FJc8OOxdqb%2FUpHHkeL24%2FzRtK1EZ9z5HNAcNgE8PDP%2BKPuSyM%2FctcBtpCjB%2BeZP3JSJTYopZADLk%2BSWalawAtkJ3XIppmguBAw3VknomXPeW7vP3IGKhumTGSfinGbNC7MD3x%2BMY3FmcF2E2emOSB6MaiQOZCcqKJ8DWkuBLhnA6JqFxDwVOqauJ8OA3HYKwV7OXJdnJGACmtRS5OVNmnYY7zTjWkJrJS6imzS4tlfPRESQuLSxwdsV9DcA8TxcRWhjy4esxjTI3O%2FwAV83W04ke47gNWz4UnruG7i6vp5G%2BrNI8RjjjU09u6jOU2%2Bh0KHabhBdKCKspnB0cjc7dFMR4ughCCcDJOFpoKmv8AxDSWjTD%2FABqyT%2BFTsO58yeg81nOMOP4beX0doImqBs%2BUe7H8O5XntRBW3qvjnhqNUsuzi8nLsqrIncYy3e4OprhdfFFHI790xg9jHXT%2Bqf4W4NruIZhPM00Vsb7pI9p47D%2Fla%2FhngqUQQOv8zp44TqhpSfZae5%2F4W5a1rGhrQGtAwANgFF3r08%2Bu%2FDlo4RY%2B7QNaXtAFOx4y4SYxnPbqvO3SmSZ0zwDI86nO6krR%2Bkq%2Fi5Xo0MDgaelGnIPvP6lZSJ5xjHJe%2BE6eeV2W46CxheSN%2BgUdpjEmI86fNOXFzDEzW4gg7KIZIgW%2BESdt8rVI11glHq2k9HLNcU03q92kIHsy4ePzVnYptnt8wUcXx%2BLT09Q3mDpKxyT8WsLrJlTyUCodqfjoFMndpaVAALn481yvc5DHhpJ5JSATuE%2BBpbhNPy72W%2FaUEepfGyM4aCuLa1h1HSMkpyaFr2aDtvzXFJGYamRgDtA90nqqJuAuSF2Vy5QRKrMbmSMO67ukz%2FAY3UCHtBO6kMoai4PbDSxl8hOzQpfEPCd6tdFHPXUTo42xhxfnIAPJanpGQPNA5oOxQOa0JNN%2FF%2BxT2HdV9Mf3oU9pwVlT3RNzO2wu%2BiYedRUCxjJXb2g8ksYw1ddUDBBAK4pqypoJDNEdLn%2BzqT7xsuHmDwmh8Mkh6HVgAq%2BxoKC%2BPpre6qmIzyYM7krH1VQ%2BqqHzSOJc85OU%2FLC6T3TgdlzFSO1ZfyUxxkXZaWL2NRHNE8A05apenGwC4eMjC0wrCMJMqRLFuSEzpV2NLag1lfTv0jIkH4r0obiTzaV5nRnTUwn64%2FFemR%2FS82%2FkorzG6jTXzYA98qHqOeQ%2B5WN8bpuU4%2BsqwHdSrEp5Jp4ie5SzkiOMtOFznNKzycuphmGNVlHc5x6n70jA552ySnYWs8VokOG5GVvuH%2BF6O8XGmp4iWB0ZdqYOa1hh5M55zF568EDByFzFkysG%2B7gvQvSTweeH44pg8zRv2bJpwR5FYi2Uzppmuzs1wyrnx6MM%2FI9fHn17Q4khjQN1VuI6KVdHF9bK4uzvhQ87rzegxldRMDveK45FHMbILaxeGLvShu51qw9ITMXKN3eJVtigcy50r3DcvGArn0iMxLTP%2FmYQrErKyPxA1vdijQvEcrXlocB0PIqTKWFrW5GQwJgwgD%2BKzPbKUifHURz%2BJHy1sIAA6rioExiAfG1uBjK6sUcf7SaJyNGDuTsre8SWsHTE7Jbzxups0ofFnbAI%2FFAHLT5KPsNk9XPill1QjS3AGCijoaiul8KlZ4j8ZIb2QNseG5ORlcl5cckrl7S1zmuGCDggrnKo6JQD1XOUqius5XQTaUFBNonHL2928%2FgtNca01sFOxkPqzGxNwA4u1Hq7fv28lkqaUxSteOh5K%2FY9r2Mc33cYx2RK2no44ykslSKCtdmjkdz%2FAJD5L3CKRksbZI3BzHDII6hfLEwAGpp3XpHo1499WdHarvJ%2B6JxFK4%2B75K6eWUeyLH%2BkO7VdrpKZ8dO%2BSkLiahzdh9UE9iVrmOa9gcxwc07gg7FN1VLT1kDoKqFksTubXjIKqPG6KSo4pE0MFqhfWTTh4qGZaIWY5dsL0zhrhejscDDpEtVj2pCOXwHRW1HQ0tDF4VHAyFmc4YMKRyVW0LI%2BkfipnDlmc2F49dqAWxN7d3Kw4s4poOGbe%2BoqpGmXH7uEH2nFfOXEnEFVxDdZayseSXe63OzB2CkSTZ1lXJK8yOeS4nJJ6lT43O2PQrO00uHYKt4JMjnt8V740sTaiEVLW6naSCo9XFHCWtYcnG5TdYZHxN0ZIzvhR%2FDkj0l7SMrVZi%2FsDv3j%2FMK2u0fjWacYyWYcFQ2F5E7h00rTvAlop4xvqjI%2BSXuHqvNqh%2BThcQN9rUeSSX3yPNORxudjPLoFxujZXOL9m8u6UDS3AXWMbcly4eyVFRnzN8VrGOwSefZdSxFs5Pjukb0PJV8Q%2FtQ%2F1K0k0gZJwqAOS6tslR%2FEycMGSlALv4n3BBZWSslp6wzwOawsGznL0DjrjW0XDgZlvZM6pr3MYx7g0hoI5leWVDgIT0wknwbYzbfurEUz%2FeKQJX81ytB%2BHaRpVg1VrDgg%2BasQs0OPdhuybaMuSOOSnIxtlRXY2QlSIIta9wAaDjKciBMLQScKPWH22qXHtG0eSo4IwumldEZXHIhIHDy3TTuadPJMu5rVZNPC40jsnHLhQXFPvIwjfcL0qE6tPm38l5LScRy0gPg07dR5kuz%2BSv2ekXSWE2rOkYP9p5%2F0IpjiMabpMFTE7ounEAr6p8%2Fqvh6vo%2BJn8lBNwH%2Fh%2Fq%2FRBbMOaY%2BT09KP7K13YqnZdNMZZ4OcnOdf6Jx15zAIvV%2Buc6%2F0RE4jLc%2Fer%2FhHiSo4fucVZGTIGey5jjsQeixzbpjI8HIP1%2F0SC6Y%2Fwf6v0V2mU29M4%2B47%2FwCqGQQNpvBgiOSNWSSshQzBlb%2B7zoOdiqE3PJ%2Fhf1fou4rr4Ty8Q7kY979FblbNJjj4pVQ%2FXO8%2FWKaPNRTX5OfD%2Fq%2FRJ69%2Flf1LLcSuak0xZH7Tm6n9AeSrBXAf4X9X6JTX5%2Fw%2F6lBqLM4PuVM55xh4JVrx%2B%2BOenp3RnOnKxlDe%2FVZWP9W1aT%2F5MZ%2BSl3figXKBsXqXh46%2BLn8lYI8On1efJGcDAPNQPpFI6saQMRYI66v0Tfj750%2FNEWdcwRiPS3TlgO3VR2klpUc1jnN0uaT8SkbVadtHzVgkTCRxy8Hl2Vpw7xDX8PTTTW6URumjMb8tBy0qoluMkow5uwGOaYNRn6HzUvayplTL48zpcYLzk%2FFNJjx%2Fq%2FNHj%2FV%2BaGz66Ub1j6vzS%2Bs%2FU%2BahtIKFH9Z%2Bp80vrP1Pmi7SGq%2FtwL6UY3OVl%2FWfqfNWVDfTSR6fVte%2Bc%2BJj8lWavHNJbgjquHRajkAhVbuJHHlS%2FwDyfolZxK4e9SNPwfj8lU033C3pEunDpbT1WaqjG2lx3b8CvT7Z6TOGq6Frn1hp5DzjkadvtXzdNf2Sn2qIf%2F6fomDdmdKRo%2BD%2FANETxfUU%2FH%2FDkWzK7xnfyxNJKxvEnphgjY%2BGzwO8Tlrk6Lxuk4jbSgmOkeHluM%2BPt92lVL61znFxbufNE8V5ebzWXiqdUV07pZD3PJV2d1C9a3935pfXPqf1JtqTSwa%2FS4FW1DNqAB5FZr13%2FL%2FqT8N1MQ2hzj6%2F6LeOWksbFkrcjT0RWTlsTQOTjgrNs4jDR%2FdP%2Fl%2FRE%2FEfjMa00mMHP8X9FvzjHjWjtji2dpacZOFsqLBOM56Lyum4l8CRrvVNWOni4%2FJXUHpCERz%2Byif%2FAOz%2FAPgnnjouN2hTR6KyZp%2Bi8j5p1pxuFU1V%2FE9TLMKXT4jy7T4mcZ%2Bxcftzb%2B7f%2FJ%2Bi569YtnnrlcuIDSTyVQ%2B8av8AAx%2Fv%2FRcvu%2BtmnwMf7%2F0U01t0z2qgYJGXKyEbAd8uPcqlbXRh2rwDnP8AP%2Bie%2Fa%2B%2F8D%2Bv9E1Ta0cB0XJGFXftjI%2Fu%2FwDX%2BiQ3fP8Agf1%2Fomqm02o3icAui9rrQAR7YdzVa%2B56m48HH%2B%2F9EG5ZgMZh3%2Fm1forBHfzXK5dLn6PzSeJ5Kh9vJTy7DAfJVQm2935p41mWgaOX1kE%2BPdSQMBVUdfo%2Fws%2F7v0Tn7V%2FyP6%2F0U0u1iEqrf2p%2Fkf1%2Foj9qf5H9f6KaNr6g4cq7zDNPSjLYB7WFCLDGSx3NuxRZ%2BK5rU55hhcdYwQJcfkoE138SVz%2FAxqOca%2F0V0bTzyTLnjVpbuVCdcy4YERH%2B79ENuLWjAg%2Fr%2FRIbWPRNu5qJ%2B1B%2F4P6%2F0XJuIP8Ag%2F1fotVlIfzXCjmuz%2Fh%2F1fouPW%2Fqf1KCKhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEAhCEH%2F%2FZ&hash=d2535335a8d3f4c2ddb86c2d8fc4f267) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LCITYsvb5k)
The Pretenders - Back To Ohio - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LCITYsvb5k)

I was thinking that while typing - you get a Yuenging FF

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 04, 2019, 10:20:41 PM

AHhhhh   Whoooooo!

good suds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 06, 2019, 06:45:17 AM

good news

https://www.msnbc.com/ali-velshi/watch/renewable-sources-have-surpassed-coal-for-creating-electricity-in-the-us-63361093763 (https://www.msnbc.com/ali-velshi/watch/renewable-sources-have-surpassed-coal-for-creating-electricity-in-the-us-63361093763)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2019, 09:09:46 AM

Coal would be the lowest hanging fruit to close and replace.  It still would not be easy, we'd be shutting paid for plants before their time.

But coal is a pretty dirty fuel all around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2019, 09:12:32 AM

I wonder when the "Deniers" would start to agree our climate is warming (if indeed it is, and I don't mean a use of the term in any negative sense). The projections from the models really only become noticeable in decades, meaning we'd have a climate where it was clearly getting warmer, milder winters by a few degrees and hotter summers. Some coastal areas might be lost (erosion does that anyway).

But the projections are perhaps a 1 meter rise in sea level (3.3 feet) by 2100 (some of which has already happened). So, sea level change over ten years is not going to be observable/noticed by unaided humans. Temperature increases are projected at 2-7°C, the worst case would be really really bad, but 2°C over a century is pretty modest (about 4°F, or half a degree per decade).

So despite all the drama in the "news", this is a slow moving event (assuming the models are close). We can easily hit 2030 or 2040 and folks will be saying "I told you so" if the Arctic ice cap is still intact year round (which is very possible) and nobody really notices warming.

Maybe by 2050 folks will have to agree our climate is warming some, even if they disagree about the why. Maybe.


Our political systems don't do well with highly technical issues that take a long time to be apparent, and by then it's too late.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 06, 2019, 10:18:45 AM

I don't mind the climate conversation being open-ended. I even like it -- when it's done the right way, at least. I probably think "the right way" is some kind of humble, honest and curious. Usually, being skeptical is using one's brain healthily. (To neither blindly trust someone else's brain nor one's own.) Of course, there are limits to skepticism being healthy. And we can bet that one of the bad limits is to be so rigidly tribal as to become unwelcome of well conceived experiments whose results are inconsistent with one's hypotheses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2019, 10:23:54 AM

"And we can bet that one of the bad limits is to be so rigidly tribal as to become unwelcome of well conceived experiments whose results are inconsistent with one's hypotheses."

I think this is a result of politics.  I think the actual climate scientists out there welcome this.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 06, 2019, 10:30:47 AM

Definitely 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2019, 08:14:23 AM

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/06/renewable-electricity-beat-out-coal-for-the-first-time-in-april/?linkId=69831898&fbclid=IwAR0HlOhGWw6ih8W4qh0TBcxHofY9g4gWczbdD-bCuvJ83_arRjHTR4p_alo (https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/06/renewable-electricity-beat-out-coal-for-the-first-time-in-april/?linkId=69831898&fbclid=IwAR0HlOhGWw6ih8W4qh0TBcxHofY9g4gWczbdD-bCuvJ83_arRjHTR4p_alo)

(https://i.imgur.com/hPJpcWV.png)

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01/natural-gas-is-now-getting-in-the-way-us-carbon-emissions-increase-by-3-4/ (https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01/natural-gas-is-now-getting-in-the-way-us-carbon-emissions-increase-by-3-4/)

Carbon emissions from the US electricity sector increased by 1.9 percent, largely because the installation of new natural gas plants has outpaced coal retirements. Cheap natural gas has been credited with killing coal, which is a dirtier fossil fuel in terms of emissions. But natural gas is a fossil fuel, too, and burning more natural gas than is needed to simply replace coal will result in more carbon emissions.

"Natural gas-fired generation increased by 166 million kWh during the first 10 months of the year," Rhodium wrote. "That’s three times the decline in coal generation and four times the combined growth of wind and solar."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 07, 2019, 01:06:42 PM

Natural gas has grown a lot to be sure, but I do think that growth is going to start slowing down as renewables continue to get cheaper and states keep increasing their renewable portfolio standards. Renewables are already being deployed faster than gas generation in most parts of the West and Great Plains. Furthermore, the fully regulated utilities in the Southeast (which own most if not all of their generation) have to submit their plans for future investments and generation (among other infrastructure), and most of them or choosing to invest more in solar compared to gas or anything else (wind is not viable in the Southeast due to lack of generation potential), particularly in Florida and the Carolinas..... It's in the deregulated parts of the Northeast that has been more challenging to deploy renewables because that's where the gas production is and wind & solar are not as productive there as other parts of the country. Even then, East Coast states are starting to think about off-shore wind, which could be best solution, once it becomes cheaper.

The longer-term upside of natural gas is that it that it's infrastructure can accommodate hydrogen, which can be mixed with it, and eventually displace gas. This applies for heating and generation. The UK and Australia are already starting to test this out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2019, 01:24:46 PM

How do you get hydrogen?

It's not a primary fuel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 07, 2019, 01:47:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2019, 01:24:46 PM

How do you get hydrogen?

It's not a primary fuel.

Probably through electrolysis primarily, but I know there are other ways to do it. The reason electrolysis is probably the best solution in the short-term is because we're already seeing renewable generation getting curtailed, particularly in California, and that will probably happen more often and in other places in the future unless / until consumption is incentivized at those times to mitigate it (though energy storage is part of the solution, too). There are many different ways that customers could be incentivized to use more energy when renewable generation is highest (I'm familiar with a few startups trying to do just that), but hydrogen generation is definitely an energy-intensive process that could become cost-effective with low electricity prices when renewable generation is highest.

To be sure, this won't be happening soon, but given the potential uses for hydrogen (freight transportation, shipping, and other systems that can't be electrified are also potential uses), I think it will definitely have a big role in the future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 07, 2019, 02:00:07 PM

Yeah, H2 is beholden to fossil fuels. It's the main reason electric vehicles are winning the logic wars versus hydrogen vehicles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2019, 02:10:44 PM

I'm looking for a energy output per unit weight from a fuel cell versus a modern battery.  I presume a fuel cell has a marked advantage, but don't know that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 07, 2019, 02:55:49 PM

Coincidentally I just found this recently released report about the future of hydrogen. The summary reinforces what I've stated above:

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/june/three-reasons-why-the-iea-report-on-hydrogen-is-a-game-changer.html?utm_content=buffer2c1f1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buffer (https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/june/three-reasons-why-the-iea-report-on-hydrogen-is-a-game-changer.html?utm_content=buffer2c1f1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2019, 03:26:38 PM

Those three reasons cited strike me as the same three reasons presented for hydrogen all along.  Is there something new in that that I missed?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 08, 2019, 12:56:04 PM

What do you take from the 60 Minutes episode on thawing permafrost being a major contributor of  carbon dioxide and methane, greenhouse gases???

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/siberia-pleistocene-park-bringing-back-pieces-of-the-ice-age-to-combat-climate-change-60-minutes-2019-07-07/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/siberia-pleistocene-park-bringing-back-pieces-of-the-ice-age-to-combat-climate-change-60-minutes-2019-07-07/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2019, 01:02:59 PM

A.  I don't trust 60 Minutes on any topic.

B.  The permafrost thing could be very very bad.  It's another thing I don't think we can model reliably.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 08, 2019, 01:05:54 PM

Quote from: Temp430 on July 03, 2019, 07:26:02 AM

The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is rising at a steady rate.  What I don't buy is that humanity is the primary cause of that.

Temp430 caused me to think about the thawing permafrost

yup, 60 Minutes may have agendas and be biased, that's why I ask the question here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2019, 01:15:39 PM

The data showing the increase in CO2 is from human activities is about as rock solid as anything can be.  I take it as a fact.  I can imagine an alternative explanation for the data, meaning the isotope ratios.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 08, 2019, 03:42:48 PM

Since we're in this thread that is in a CFB website - what are Universities doing recycling wise on game days? A lot of plastic getting tossed in the trash coast to coast in a lot of Stadiums.The NFL should get in on the act also

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 08, 2019, 05:12:28 PM

I think Big Ten universities are pushing hard to go full compostable (plates, cups, utensils, and of course the food). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2019, 05:42:36 PM

Compostable stuff does not good at all if it goes to landfill.

I used to work on compostable polymers back in the day.  That caused me some career trouble for telling truth to power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 08, 2019, 06:28:21 PM

I don't know about compostables, but it seems that a good deal of what is being publicly done is being publicly done to send signals rather than to improve the situation.  The unintended consequences turn out to be overcome the predicted direct improvements.  Replacing plastic straws with paper ones, and replacing plastic grocery bags with paper ones come right to mind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2019, 07:18:50 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 08, 2019, 12:56:04 PM

What do you take from the 60 Minutes episode on thawing permafrost being a major contributor of  carbon dioxide and methane, greenhouse gases???

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/siberia-pleistocene-park-bringing-back-pieces-of-the-ice-age-to-combat-climate-change-60-minutes-2019-07-07/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/siberia-pleistocene-park-bringing-back-pieces-of-the-ice-age-to-combat-climate-change-60-minutes-2019-07-07/)

So, this is the problem with most of climate science, and why it's so flippin' hard to determine how much warming will happen.

Everything depends on models, and each of those models have various things that will be positive feedback loops (warming begets warming) or negative feedback loops (warming begets cooling). 

I.e. if warming causes the permafrost to melt, releasing more greenhouse gases, it is a positive feedback loop. If the poles melt, which currently reflect sunlight away from the earth, it is a positive feedback loop as more of that solar energy is retained in the earth. 

But if warming causes more cloud coverage, clouds also reflect sunlight back into space, and that will mitigate the warming, i.e. a negative feedback loop. Although if I read Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_feedback)*, clouds can serve both purposes. High clouds reflect the earth's heat downwards, a net positive feedback, while lower clouds reflect the sun's heat upwards, a net negative feedback. 

Generally if there is no net feedback to CO2, the warming will be relatively restrained. Most models assume a positive "climate sensitivity" number, which is effectively the degree of feedback inherent in the climate system. 

The issue with climate change is that nobody really knows the exact effects of these feedback loops, and whether there are enough negative feedback loops in climate to mitigate the worst positive feedback loops. I've heard people argue that the earth tends towards negative feedback [remaining in stasis], but given the various extinctions the earth has gone through in its history, I'm not sure I agree that we can't tip the balance. I'm just not sure if CO2 will do so. 

That said, I agree with @CincyDawg that I'm a bit worried about the potential positive feedback from permafrost melt. Also that 60 Minutes can't be trusted. 

* BTW I don't ever trust Wikipedia for politically-charged topics like this. I always figure they'll be captured by one side ideologically or the other, who will fight tooth and nail to skew the bias of the entry. However I highlight it here to explain the basics of positive and negative feedback loops and that both exist in climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2019, 07:36:34 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2019, 01:15:39 PM

The data showing the increase in CO2 is from human activities is about as rock solid as anything can be.  I take it as a fact.  I can imagine an alternative explanation for the data, meaning the isotope ratios.

Yeah, I've said it before, but the argument for mitigating climate change relies on a complex chain of linked statements:

• CO2 is a greenhouse gas and will warm the planet.
• Human production of CO2 is sizable relative to all natural sources and IS warming the planet. 
• Warming is a net negative effect on the planet. 
• The warming that will happen due to CO2 is sizeable and if unchecked will cause serious harm to human civilization.
• The harm to human civilization that is caused is larger than the cost to civilization of attempting to check the warming. 

Anyone who argues against #1 or #2 is IMHO what you would call a "denier". I don't think there are credible arguments against these statements: The climate is warming. CO2 is one of the principal causes of warming and is increasing. Humans are the largest driver of the CO2 increase. Therefore, humans are driving the warming of the climate.

The argument is really fought from #3 to #5, particularly #4 and #5. 

Climate sensitivity is the way to try to figure out HOW much warmer we'll get form a certain amount of CO2 (i.e. direction and magnitude of feedback loops), so #4 is the central battleground of a huge fight between the climate change alarmists and the climate change skeptics. 

#5 is harder... If you think climate modeling is hard, try modeling economic growth out 100 years based upon a high-carbon or low-carbon economy... Can we develop technology fast enough to let the earth warm but still mitigate that warmth through economic growth and technology? Maybe. Or will the negative effects of climate change occur so quickly that they can't be mitigated and push humanity into drought, famine, resource struggles, and likely international conflicts over food/water/natural resources? Maybe.

So yeah, CO2 is increasing and it's our fault. And that's warming the planet. But it remains to be seen whether that's meaningful, negative, and more impactful than trying to push through technology to stay ahead of the curve to mitigate warming down the road.

(And the cynical answer is that China and India sure as hell aren't going to give up carbon if carbon is the way to get their economies up to first world standards, so we're probably f&#*$d anyway, and we'd better hope that we can find a technological solution down the road.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 08, 2019, 07:55:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2019, 05:42:36 PM

Compostable stuff does not good at all if it goes to landfill.

I used to work on compostable polymers back in the day.  That caused me some career trouble for telling truth to power.

Sorry. I didn't type enough. The Big Ten schools are pushing hard to go full compostable with food wares ... and then they are also being composted. These things are probably contracted out; I'm not sure. However at IU and Michigan, they are explicitly advertised as not headed for landfills.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 08, 2019, 08:29:39 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 08, 2019, 06:28:21 PM

I don't know about compostables, but it seems that a good deal of what is being publicly done is being publicly done to send signals rather than to improve the situation.  The unintended consequences turn out to be overcome the predicted direct improvements.  Replacing plastic straws with paper ones, and replacing plastic grocery bags with paper ones come right to mind.

This is a very good point. But not everyone is ready to limit using any single-use materials. "No straws forever" sounds like hell to some people. Ditto: bringing one's own cloth bags to the grocer. And with that context I can't blame people for making the mistake of eyeing quick fixes. But as you imply, that's fool's gold, emphasis on the fool.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 09:45:01 AM

Composting was all the rage circa 1990 because our landfills were supposedly getting full.  All that was based on some very flawed "analysis".

The actual few compositing sites that started closed rather quickly because of "issues" like smell.  I'm not talking about yard waste, which can be composted fairly easily if source separated.  If they can collect the compostable food items and then truck it all to some well run composting site, t his could work "OK" IF the trash contains no materials which are not compostable.

Composting general MSW is a mess to operate properly, though it does reduce volume a good bit.  You end up with liquids and odors (and CO2 and methane) and composted material that is still trash and has to be landfilled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 09:45:53 AM

My "career" issue was being a low level technie guy who started writing reports about all the problems.  What I did not realize was that HIGH level people were pushing this theme and they did not want anything negative said about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2019, 09:53:40 AM

politics and agendas

selfish and sad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 10:04:45 AM

Somehow one of my monthly reports got passed up the line.  The head of all of this was a female VP who was pushing this hard and had been given tens of millions to fund this and that.  My report basically said "This is happening, and isn't going to happen, and here's why not."

At the time, my boss' boss was a very good guy and he grabbed me at lunch and said "DO NOT RESPOND.  I will handle it.  Don't write this stuff any more."

About two years later the whole thing quietly "went away", and the VP lady was promoted.  I spent 3 years of my career working on "compostable polymers" for no reason.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 09, 2019, 10:13:04 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 08, 2019, 08:29:39 PM

This is a very good point. But not everyone is ready to limit using any single-use materials. "No straws forever" sounds like hell to some people. Ditto: bringing one's own cloth bags to the grocer. And with that context I can't blame people for making the mistake of eyeing quick fixes. But as you imply, that's fool's gold, emphasis on the fool.

Austin had a single-use bag ban in effect for a couple of years.  It was fine with me, I just purchased a few cloth reusable bags and went on with my life.

I never dug into it deeply, but after all of that, there were studies that suggested that the amount of material and energy put into making the reusable bags, was considerably more than the single-use plastic bags. And, for those concerned about food contamination, the reusable bags also need to be washed regularly which utilizes still more resources and also limits their useful life.  In the end, it might actually be less environmentally impactful to just use the single-use plastic bags.   But I'm not sure of that, and even though the bag ban has been lifted, I still use my reusable bags.  They're stronger and carry more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 10:45:31 AM

If we would just ban plastic straws, I think every environmental issue would be laid to rest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2019, 10:59:38 AM

and those horrible helium balloons released on football Saturdays in Lincoln

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2019, 11:00:34 AM

In January, The New York Times described a comprehensive new report(opens in new window) (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/16/climate/meat-environment-climate-change.html) from the EAT-Lancet Commission(opens in new window) (https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/) on Food, Planet and Health. It was compiled by 37 scientists and other experts from 16 countries, with the aim of establishing a global food economy that could combat chronic diseases in wealthy nations like ours and provide better nutrition for poor ones, all without destroying the planet. The scientists’ goal was to outline a healthy sustainable diet that could feed the nearly 10 billion people expected to inhabit the world by 2050.

For more than a century, most Americans have been eating far too high on the hog for the sake of their own health and the health of the planet. In 1900, two-thirds of our protein came not from animals but from plant foods. By 1985, that statistic was reversed, with more than two-thirds of our protein coming from animals, primarily beef cattle. They consume up to 8 pounds of grain to produce 1 pound of meat and release tons of greenhouse gases in the process while their saturated fat and calories contribute heavily to our high rates of chronic diseases.

As Dr. Walter C. Willett, professor of epidemiology and nutrition at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and a contributor to the Lancet report told Nutrition Action Healthletter, “We simply cannot eat the amounts of beef that we’re now consuming and still have a future for our grandchildren.”


In an editorial, The Lancet wrote(opens in new window) (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)33179-9/fulltext): “Intensive meat production is on an unstoppable trajectory comprising the single greatest contributor to climate change. Humanity’s dominant diets are not good for us, and they are not good for the planet.”

The Lancet report does not insist that everyone become a vegetarian or vegan, but does set as a goal that people in wealthy countries limit consumption of red meat — beef and lamb in particular — to one 3-ounce serving a week, or one 6-ounce serving every two weeks. You can be somewhat more generous with pork, poultry and fish, which are better for your health and less damaging to the earth. The grain-to-meat ratio for poultry and hogs is only about 2.5 to 1, and the fat in fish is mostly unsaturated and high in omega-3 fatty acids.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 11:37:48 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 09, 2019, 10:59:38 AM

and those horrible helium balloons released on football Saturdays in Lincoln

I think I've read that those are compostable. The plastic isnt the thing I'm paying attention to, though.

I'm still not sure we are properly managing Helium stores after the shortage scares of the late-2000s. I know He collection is up due to the natural gas boom. Still, liquid He is literally indispensable for medical, research and high tech like quantum computer development.

I'd like to see us do more to guarantee He's long-term availability for those applications. For now, I'm not sure of my exact complaint. Maybe that the pricing seems off - too cheap.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 11:39:11 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 09, 2019, 10:59:38 AM

and those horrible helium balloons released on football Saturdays in Lincoln

Interestingly, "we" are using up our helium supplies, and when it's gone, there is not more.  The US is a major producer, usually from NG wells, and we do need it for science and industry, not balloons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 11:42:48 AM

How advanced would a society have to be to make helium the way a star does?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 12:08:37 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 11:42:48 AM

How advanced would a society have to be to make helium the way a star does?

We can do it now, but the quantities are minute.  Even if fusion became a viable energy source, the quantities would be minute.  Once it's gone, it's gone, though we probably could drill deeper and find some more, hopefully.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 12:36:43 PM

I didn't say it clearly. I meant "readily and to scale." And I think I want to add "with renewable energy."

I think we might need to be close to a Type II civilization on the Kardashev scale. A holy-optimistic best case scenario might put us 1,000 years from that, and I am skeptical we have sufficient He to last that long.

Helium balloons are - forgive me - dumb.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 12:58:43 PM

He is just He,  Hydrogen is H2 (usually), but I'm sure you know that of course.  One nice thing about He is that it is effectively inert.

We used it a lot in gas chromatography.  It's also used to cool the magnets for MRI and high field NMR.

It does not have an obvious replacement material.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 01:21:09 PM

Ah, damn. It's noble. I quote "knew" it, but obviously hadn't stayed sharp on a simple thing. Embarrassing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 09, 2019, 01:35:15 PM

I like the noble gases.  They seem so.... regal.

We used argon as our "warmup" gas for ion implanters.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 01:52:37 PM

Argon is handy stuff, and abundant, almost a percent of the atmosphere.  Helium is too light, so it's mean free velocity is higher than escape velocity.  So, it escapes.

Argon doesn't.  Of course there is krypton which is super.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2019, 02:15:24 PM

You can have my beef when you pry it from my cold, dead hands. 

Which, if I continue eating beef at the same rate I currently do, might not take too long ;-) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2019, 02:21:43 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 09, 2019, 10:13:04 AM

Austin had a single-use bag ban in effect for a couple of years.  It was fine with me, I just purchased a few cloth reusable bags and went on with my life.

I never dug into it deeply, but after all of that, there were studies that suggested that the amount of material and energy put into making the reusable bags, was considerably more than the single-use plastic bags. And, for those concerned about food contamination, the reusable bags also need to be washed regularly which utilizes still more resources and also limits their useful life.  In the end, it might actually be less environmentally impactful to just use the single-use plastic bags.  But I'm not sure of that, and even though the bag ban has been lifted, I still use my reusable bags.  They're stronger and carry more.

Yeah, we don't have a ban here in CA, but if you want a single-use bag, you pay $0.10 each for them. So we end up with reusable bags.

I have heard the concerns about contamination. And we don't regularly wash our bags. So far so good, but it's always in the back of my mind. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 03:00:58 PM

I haven't heard the food contamination concerns either (mold?).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2019, 03:11:04 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 03:00:58 PM

I haven't heard the food contamination concerns either (mold?).

"A joint food-safety research report by researchers from the University of Arizona and Loma Linda University in California found that most reusable grocery shopping bags harbor multiple harmful bacteria. More than fifty percent were contaminated with bacteria, and E.coli was found in over twelve percent of the tested bags. During their study, in a quick survey at a grocery store, ninety-seven percent of shoppers admit that they have never washed their reusable grocery shopping bags."

https://www.thespruce.com/keep-reusable-bags-clean-and-usable-2147015 (https://www.thespruce.com/keep-reusable-bags-clean-and-usable-2147015)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 09, 2019, 03:13:49 PM

Yup, bacteria.  We wash ours regularly, but that absolutely decreases their useful life.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 03:28:32 PM

If medical school taught me anything, it's that - excepting those who are immunocompromised - bacteria are rarely to be frightened of. Just like nearly all of us carry MRSA in our noses to no (or rare) ill effect, coliform, staph, or listeria in our bags should be mostly meaningless. I wash my produce anyway. This won't change my behavior with reusable bags.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 03:59:28 PM

Also, of course, the bags have bacteria. No one should have realistically expected them to be sterile. The proper analysis isn't "presence versus absence" and I'd argue it's not "quantification of bacteria" either. The proper analysis is outcomes-based:

• Do people who use their own cloth bags get sick (presumably we'd be focusing on GI issues and maybe atopic issues too) more than those with single-use bags (plastic or paper)?
• Do people who wash their resuable bags get less sick than those who don't?

Before doing the experiments, my hypothesis is that these effects are negligible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2019, 04:04:45 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 03:59:28 PM

Also, of course, the bags have bacteria. No one should have realistically expected them to be sterile. The proper analysis isn't "presence versus absence" and I'd argue it's not "quantification of bacteria" either. The proper analysis is outcomes-based:

• Do people who use their own cloth bags get sick (presumably we'd be focusing on GI issues and maybe atopic issues too) more than those with single-use bags (plastic or paper)?
• Do people who wash their resuable bags get less sick than those who don't?

Before doing the experiments, my hypothesis is that these effects are negligible.

Agreed. So far I haven't heard of any widespread epidemics here in CA since they went to the reusable bag thing, so I doubt it's a major issue. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 04:13:45 PM

Fortunately, we are mostly resistant to common bacteria, else we'd be in trouble.  A guy who worked for me got shigella, they think from "organic" tomatoes.  He stopped coming to work for a few days until he was well enough to call.  He said it was really really bad.  They put him of cipro right at the time everyone was using it because of some outbreak of whatever it was, alleged, powder of something thought to be spreading around by terrorists.  Anthrax.

Sometimes the wife uses the store bags and then puts the bags in our bags because she uses the others for trash under the sink.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2019, 04:29:20 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 03:28:32 PM

If medical school taught me anything, it's that - excepting those who are immunocompromised - bacteria are rarely to be frightened of. Just like nearly all of us carry MRSA in our noses to no (or rare) ill effect, coliform, staph, or listeria in our bags should be mostly meaningless. I wash my produce anyway. This won't change my behavior with reusable bags.

this

some folks are afraid of their own shadows and have no idear what they should be afraid of

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2019, 04:39:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 04:13:45 PM

Fortunately, we are mostly resistant to common bacteria, else we'd be in trouble.  A guy who worked for me got shigella, they think from "organic" tomatoes.  He stopped coming to work for a few days until he was well enough to call.  He said it was really really bad.  They put him of cipro right at the time everyone was using it because of some outbreak of whatever it was, alleged, powder of something thought to be spreading around by terrorists.  Anthrax.

Sometimes the wife uses the store bags and then puts the bags in our bags because she uses the others for trash under the sink.

This is what we do on weekends at the harbor. The store bags are perfect size for the garbage containers we have on board. The paper ones (I always get a couple of those too) make for great containers to bring recycled glass and aluminum home.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 04:41:19 PM

I read once that 70% of the dry weight of fecal matter is bacteria.  It's pretty neat that our colons are nasty little biochemical factories inside us.  If those germs die bad things happen.  We basically are a long tube surrounded by some other stuff.

The stomach is something like pH 1.5 and the small intestine is something like pH 8-9.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 09, 2019, 05:42:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 09, 2019, 04:41:19 PM

We basically are a long tube surrounded by some other stuff.

Body plan evolution is such a weird story.

Although I don't mean to trivialize the landmark transitions of our unicellular ancestors or of single-celled algae into multicellular "balls" or into "cell sheets," once those sheet-like ancestors acquired the trait of being curled around to connect along two edges, for that species to be a tube (sort of like a pyrosome), things got the very weirdest, the very fastest.

From optimal surface area for filter feeders to incalculable body plan potential, as with vertebrates, there's plenty that's special about a living tube.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 09, 2019, 09:28:10 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 09, 2019, 10:13:04 AM

Austin had a single-use bag ban in effect for a couple of years.  It was fine with me, I just purchased a few cloth reusable bags and went on with my life.

I never dug into it deeply, but after all of that, there were studies that suggested that the amount of material and energy put into making the reusable bags, was considerably more than the single-use plastic bags. And, for those concerned about food contamination, the reusable bags also need to be washed regularly which utilizes still more resources and also limits their useful life.  In the end, it might actually be less environmentally impactful to just use the single-use plastic bags.  But I'm not sure of that, and even though the bag ban has been lifted, I still use my reusable bags.  They're stronger and carry more.

It turns out that those single-use plastic bags are often used for a second purpose, like curbing the dog, putting liners in small trash-cans, etc.  Banning them results in people buying more trash bags, which are made of heavier plastic, consume more petroleum, and are a bigger problem in the landfill.

EDIT: I see that others have made this same point, probably to better effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2019, 06:04:31 AM

The wife likes to use an insulated blue grocery bag, which is fine with me, as it allowed us to make a second stop on the way home if we have a perishable.  Sometimes I put an ice brick inside it.  Most consumers want plastic bags.  We all can recall when they asked "paper or plastic" every time you went to the store.  Before that paper was bad.

I suspect we individually put a much larger load on the planet than our use of plastic bags.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 08:03:44 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 09, 2019, 09:28:10 PM

It turns out that those single-use plastic bags are often used for a second purpose, like curbing the dog, putting liners in small trash-cans, etc.  Banning them results in people buying more trash bags, which are made of heavier plastic, consume more petroleum, and are a bigger problem in the landfill.

EDIT: I see that others have made this same point, probably to better effect.

Good points I haven't bought a liner for my small trash cans for years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2019, 08:16:23 AM

Petroleum products include transportation fuels, fuel oils for heating and electricity generation, asphalt and road oil, and feedstocks (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.cfm?id=Petrochemical feedstocks) for making the chemicals, plastics, and synthetic materials that are in nearly everything we use. In 2018, of the approximately 7.5 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum consumption (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Product supplied), 46% was motor gasoline (includes fuel ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel.

Something like 10% goes into chemicals and polymers of some sort.  Some synthetic chemicals are produced from coal, not that much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 10:07:53 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 08:03:44 AM

Good points I haven't bought a liner for my small trash cans for years

I used to simply hang the plastic bag on the door handle in the kitchen for cooking/food trash.  The garbage can was a few feet away in the attached garage.  I thought it very functional.

My daughters bought a trash can that I'm required to buy the expensive large drawstring bags.

Someday the oldest daughter will move out of the basement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 10:10:08 AM

https://www.iceagenow.info/confirmed-geomagnetic-reversals-can-trigger-glaciation/ (https://www.iceagenow.info/confirmed-geomagnetic-reversals-can-trigger-glaciation/)

Bomb-shell press release from Kobe University confirms what I’ve been saying for years, that geomagnetic reversals can trigger ice ages – perhaps almost instantaneously. I’m not sure that was the intent of the press release because it doesn’t actually use the words “ice age,” “trigger ” or “instantaneous,” but that’s my take on it. See if you agree.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2019, 10:52:40 AM

https://www.universetoday.com/140625/the-earths-wandering-poles-could-have-caused-the-ice-age/ (https://www.universetoday.com/140625/the-earths-wandering-poles-could-have-caused-the-ice-age/)

May have been related to the major ice ages, perhaps not the more frequent lesser ones.

http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm (http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm)

This fellow says we could be 20 years from a serious ice age.

https://www.iceagenow.com/Magnetic_Reversal_Chart.htm (https://www.iceagenow.com/Magnetic_Reversal_Chart.htm)

Glad I moved.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121016084936.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121016084936.htm)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 10, 2019, 11:51:39 AM

Excellent points made by others about people buying more thick-plastic trash bags when the single-use bags were banned. That definitely happened to us, and that reminds me that was also part of the "equation" when folks did studies on the total environmental impact of a bag ban.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 11:58:55 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 10:07:53 AM

Someday the oldest daughter will move out of the basement.

Tell her about the small gator chasing the Rats that came up out of the sump.But now you have a puchased a Boa that will take care of everything

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2019, 12:07:42 PM

Even better would be for FF to sell the house and buy a one bedroom condo on a golf course.

Solves a lot of problems.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 12:10:22 PM

Well if fixing windows/siding that he busted falls under that I guess

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 12:10:40 PM

I'm moving in next to Utee

gotta be a golf course within stumbling distance

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 12:14:39 PM

Just don't try cutting thru the pool to get there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2019, 12:25:15 PM

It would be fascinating IF the planet is otherwise entering a severe cooling phase, but CO2 is counteracting that, especially if it is magically in balance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 10, 2019, 12:29:55 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 12:10:40 PM

I'm moving in next to Utee

gotta be a golf course within stumbling distance

Actually there are two.  Tons of golf carts in our neighborhood, both kids and olds driving them all over the place.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 12:40:04 PM

I thought Olds went out of business

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 10, 2019, 12:43:36 PM

If only that were true. On the evening of the 4th of July, whilst my family and I were sitting in our frontyard watching the city fireworks (which are conveniently launched from a city park less than a mile away), a drunken old driving a golf cart got it up in two wheels, popped the curb into my yard, and crashed into my tree about 15 feet from where my kids were sitting.  I nearly killed that guy I was so angry.

First World Problems, I know...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 12:51:48 PM

Probably a judge or driving instructor - did you call the Cops?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 12:55:29 PM

I'm pretty solid on a golf cart

drunk or otherwise

nothing to fear, Utee

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 01:05:32 PM

It's when yu get a club in your hand he's concerned

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 01:20:18 PM

the 4 iron is to ward off loose women

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 01:21:26 PM

Then why do you play with your putter so much?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 01:34:41 PM

I don't chip it close and I don't get many gimmes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2019, 01:42:59 PM

No gimmes huh,oh the whore

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2019, 01:51:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2019, 12:25:15 PM

It would be fascinating IF the planet is otherwise entering a severe cooling phase, but CO2 is counteracting that, especially if it is magically in balance.

That's some FoxNews-level hope you got there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 10, 2019, 02:11:14 PM

He doesn't seem to be hoping or expecting, not to me at least. Moreso I think hea just admitting the obvious. "If that outrageously unlikely thing were true, that'd be fascinating."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 02:47:01 PM

I'm hoping

then I nee-dent feel guilty about driving my V-8  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2019, 06:15:59 AM

It would be fascinating, and I'd opine very very unlikely.

The publications on the magnetic pole reversal's impact on climate are pretty interesting, and this doesn't appear to me to be looney tunes stuff either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 11, 2019, 07:10:35 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2019, 06:15:59 AM

The publications on the magnetic pole reversal's impact on climate are pretty interesting, and this doesn't appear to me to be looney tunes stuff either.

Pole reversal - pretty sure that's how the ET's drive their ships.Maybe it's all tied in.More ET's means a cooler planet,so many positive waves maybe we can't lose,you're on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2019, 07:18:33 AM

On a slightly related note, the number on airport runways reflect the magnetic orientation of the runway.  So, Runway 27 for example points West, and Runway 09 would be its reciprocal.  These get changed if the magnetic pole drifts, which is has been doing of late.  Obviously, a runway could be 27.4 and with a small drift turn into 27.5 and need to be repainted as Runway 28 and 91.

The aeronautical maps have to be changed as well, you are supposed to buy new ones every 6 months, and they used to cost $8 a piece.  Maybe everyone uses GPS now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2019, 08:32:19 AM

Wild, weird stuff. I did not know that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2019, 08:44:42 AM

In the olden times, biplanes and when I was still flying and such, we had to learn to navigate with the "wet compass" and pilotage, a watch, and calculating your ground speed.  It was kind of fun, but not the easiest thing in the world while you also were controlling the plane and looking out for others.

Buy maps was a bit expensive, but so is flying.  A sectional map would cover 3-4-5 states, and you needed a special map of any Class B airport, which Cincinnati became whilst I was flying.  The poles are moving unusually quickly right now, which generates speculation about this pole reversal and its effects, but it plays havoc with old timey navigation.

The wet compass jiggles so much in even slight turbulence that it's hard to read anyway.  If you are off 1° in your heading, after 60 nautical miles you will be 1 nautical mile left or right of your intended location.  This is why they use knots for navigation and not mph or kph.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2019, 12:45:26 PM

Always need to adjust on nautical charts too. But, nobody really does anymore.

Using the charts was a component of my USCG Captain license exam. I haven't touched one since. 

Chart plotter and radar does the trick for me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2019, 12:53:21 PM

Yeah, navigation is almost the same for planes as for boats.  A nice thing about planes is you have a much wider field of view and "landmarks" in general.

I vaguely recall my first long cross country solo as a student I was looking for an airport and was pretty sure I was close to it so I started descending and found I could not see it and was too close for the radio navigation beacons to work properly.  I had to climb to find it.  Bloomington, Indiana, and it's a controlled airport as well.

But, I digress.  I had a few notions about regaining my currency to fly again but decided not to.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2019, 01:05:53 PM

I plan to use my license in Florida, when I "retire" there.

I've got a 100 ton Master, so there are a lot of boats that I can captain, with unlimited passengers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 11, 2019, 01:11:59 PM

Maybe we can go on a Ship of Fools tour to Bimini and the Triangle

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2019, 12:14:13 AM

Count me in!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2019, 10:26:43 AM

I'll ride along

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 13, 2019, 07:34:51 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2019, 01:15:39 PM

The data showing the increase in CO2 is from human activities is about as rock solid as anything can be.  I take it as a fact.  I can imagine an alternative explanation for the data, meaning the isotope ratios.

The relative enrichment of C12 in the atmosphere and depletion of C14 indicates an old source of carbon enriched in C12.  Fossil fuels are the best explaination unless some other C12 enrichment process besides photosynthesis is discovered.  But that does not prove mankind is responsible for the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. 

The planet has been warming up since the end of the mini ice age around 1840.  As the ocean warms the solubility of CO2 decreases and the partial pressure of CO2 in the air increases. Perhaps the freshest CO2 in the air is from burning fossil fuel but in the absence of that the CO2 conc. would be the same?  In other words, mankind may be responsible for the C12 enrichment but not the increase.  The concentration of CO2 has been higher in the distant past.  It has also been lower and has increased before mankind was around in significant numbers and burning stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2019, 08:56:20 AM

Yes, CO2 levels have varied in the past.  There is some data to suggest it can be a following parameter, e.g., that it rises after a rise in T caused by cycles or whatever.

The steady rise of CO2 in the air coupled with the isotopic data strongly suggested this is mostly due to fossil fuels being burned.  We have a reasonable handle on how much CO2 is produced each year from FFs and the levels match up up fairly well.

We obviously do burn a LOT of FFs each year.  A gallon of gasoline generates a surprising (to me) amount of CO2 (because the O2 part is so heavy).

I don't fully trust the models though, they can only be devised by "back fitting".  There may be a lot of important parameters not being considered.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 13, 2019, 11:53:25 AM

The relevant data isn't only the diminishing C12/C13 ratio or the increasing total atmospheric [CO2], it's these *and* the observation that both trends begin around 1850. Total abundance and isotope changes correlate just as tightly with one another as they do with onset of the industrial revolution.

Also, while it's important to continually seek new, alternative explanations, let's not forget to pay attention to the probabilities those alternatives are correct.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2019, 12:03:46 PM

The problem I have with the various models is simply that they can only be "back checked".  You have to make some basic assumptions about what variables are critical and to what degree and pile them into an algorithm and then see if they predict what has happened up to now, and then adjust.

This also requires that our mean T data is reliably calculated, which also is plausibly inaccurate.

Simple factors like cloud cover have to be very complex to model and have an obvious impact on climate.  The planet might heat up a bit and form more cloud cover as a result and the enhanced albedo cools the surface down, but then clouds at night hold heat in.  Then there is methane and CO2 locked in permafrost and the whole ocean CO2 absorption issue.

I tried to do some primary reading back in the day on models in Nature and Science etc. and it was too jargoned up to follow easily at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 13, 2019, 12:08:26 PM

Quote from: Temp430 on July 13, 2019, 07:34:51 AM

But that does not prove mankind is responsible for the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

It's ok to not be convinced of something as long as you could conceivably change your mind if the right data came along later. If you were an oceanographer/geologist/whichever in charge of leading a study on this, what's something you could conceivably discover that would reverse your opinion?

Basically I'm curious about your threshold for believing something. Separately, I'm curious whether your threshold on this is similar to your threshold for believing other things.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 13, 2019, 12:20:21 PM

I think people in both camps are wary of the models. They are too diverse in their forecasts and too speculative about feedback to know whether any of them are trustworthy (let alone which!).

But whereas models are mostly for the world should it ever achieve a consensus and become  focused on fixing the problem, many people (including this thread) aren't there yet. So I'm more interested in ignoring the forecasts in favor of discussing observations and the deductive process for these questions: "Is Earth warming?" - "Is its carbon cycle growing in capacity, notably in CO2?" - "What's the relationship between these?" - "What's the CO2 source?"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2019, 12:21:47 PM

I find it more interesting to ponder what could be done about it in any practicable sense.

My answer thus far is "Very little".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 13, 2019, 12:30:21 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 13, 2019, 12:21:47 PM

I find it more interesting to ponder what could be done about it in any practicable sense.

My answer thus far is "Very little".

That seems probable to me too. But I'm not cynical about it. Even if futile on climate (not certain, just a strong maybe), getting serious about stewardship can have significant impacts elsewhere. Climate isn't our only man-made crisis. There're also crises of fresh water quality, air quality, and solids pollution. And most *attempts* at climate correction will inevitably (even if inadvertently) address these as well, because fossil fuels contribute in plurality or majority to each of those problems. The key, as always, is making it favored by economic forces, do that and political will is automatic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2019, 12:49:51 PM

If "we" expend significant assets at curtailing CO2, that likely means fewer assets for curtailing "normal" problems.

My approach would be to curtail coal burning for power as expediently as possible.  I'm not sure if that needs funding assistance, loan guarantees, what, but it would be useful overall to reduce coal to the extent possible.

The US has done a pretty good job on air quality, much better than Europe has.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20180810/paris-pollution-like-smoking-183-cigarettes-a-year (https://www.thelocal.fr/20180810/paris-pollution-like-smoking-183-cigarettes-a-year)

https://www.numbeo.com/pollution/compare_cities.jsp?country1=France&city1=Paris&country2=United+States&city2=Los+Angeles%2C+CA (https://www.numbeo.com/pollution/compare_cities.jsp?country1=France&city1=Paris&country2=United+States&city2=Los+Angeles%2C+CA)

Europe made a shift to favoring Diesel fuel to combat CO2 production and in the bargain ended up with much higher "normal" pollutants.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/11/air-pollution-ranking-32-cities-measure/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/11/air-pollution-ranking-32-cities-measure/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 13, 2019, 02:48:12 PM

Had to talk to my HVAC guy for advice,has his own business but he works that around teaching at a Trade School.Has some interseting theories/info about how the Corporate Suits manipulate the market.Pushing out certain refrigerants and introducing not better but more profitable types.Yet they are allowed to re-capture the old refrigerant,scrub/filter it and use it again - usually in Auto A.C.s.Evidently a big ozone hole over Australia years ago has sealed up and that couldn't have possibly been from relatively recent federal mandates for the environment when factoring in China/India/Russia - according to him

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 13, 2019, 03:45:45 PM

My understanding was that the ozone layer is now better sealed over the poles because ozone is a gas and has wafted around sufficiently over the decades, but that this sealing effect comes at the cost of the entire layer being thinner on average.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 13, 2019, 03:57:00 PM

Refrigerants are actually the leading source of CO2 emissions according to https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank (https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank), which was a book written a few years ago about how to mitigate emissions.

Meanwhile, Trump apparently made a speech related to energy & environment this week, including saying he supports solar despite of course putting tariffs on them last year. At least he didn't say wind turbines cause cancer, again....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 07:14:26 AM

Our analysis includes emissions reductions that can be achieved through the management and destruction of refrigerants already in circulation. Over thirty years, containing 87 percent of refrigerants likely to be released could avoid emissions equivalent to 89.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide. Phasing out HFCs per the Kigali accord could avoid additional emissions equivalent to 25 to 78 gigatons of carbon dioxide (not included in the total shown here). 

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/new-global-co2-emissions-numbers-are-they-re-not-good (https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/new-global-co2-emissions-numbers-are-they-re-not-good)

Assuming the analysis is correct, that would be about three years of global CO2 production.  Are HFCs included in the various climate models as contributors to climate change?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 07:17:13 AM

https://www.livescience.com/38519-refrigerant-hfcs-devastating-to-climate.html (https://www.livescience.com/38519-refrigerant-hfcs-devastating-to-climate.html)

Currently, HFCs comprise only 2 percent of total carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions, but this percentage may increase to as much as 20 percent if society continues on its current emissions trajectory. Alternatively, a global phasedown of HFCs could avoid 100 gigatons of carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions by 2050, and prevent a global average temperature increase of 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, according to findings announced in Bangkok, Thailand, in June by members of the air-conditioning and refrigeration industry at the Advancing Ozone and Climate Protection Technologies: Next Steps conference.

Useful figure here to note is the equivalence between 100 gT of CO2 and 0.5°C, or more easily stated as 200 gT = 1°C (1.8°F in projected T increase).

200 gT is about 5 years of current production.  That is steeper than I would have guessed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 08:24:07 AM

How much of this is independent,honest analysis?Again if there are billions of dollars to be made somewhere there are those that can be bought or manipulated.The older I get and the more I've been around the block I'm convinced big money will piss down our backs and tell us it's raining

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 09:06:59 AM

I personally think the vast vast majority of climate scientists are honest and doing the best job they can.  It is the intercept between them - the real scientists - and the media where the gap is formed.  Their original papers are very hard to read without a lot of effort.  They use a lot of jargon, they might refer for example to the "TGT calculation of Smith et al." and a casual reader is lost at that point unless he looks up the paper by Smith.  It is VERY easy to excerpt from that work "burfle" taken out of context and present that to the rest of us as authoritative.

What would make sense in such a case is to have some "review board" take an overview of it all and hope they have no reason to be biased, which was done, but even that report gets excerpted and the uncertainties are minimized or ignored.  The media take out whatever they want and disregard the rest.

https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/ (https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/)

" For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C."

The thing is here that a 10 cm reduction in MSL is not really going to help that much, if a 1 m rise happens by 2100.  Anyway, I see "no hope" of a practicable approach to reducing this, or even limiting the rise to 2°C by 2100.  We can sign all the agreements we want, but the path to real reductions in CO2 simply is not there in any practicable sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 09:38:51 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 08:24:07 AM

How much of this is independent,honest analysis?Again if there are billions of dollars to be made somewhere there are those that can be bought or manipulated.The older I get and the more I've been around the block I'm convinced big money will piss down our backs and tell us it's raining

Anyone can be wrong, and no profession is perfectly resistant to corruption by money or pursuit of fame. But the vast majority of scientists - especially in fields like oceanography and geology - have modest salaries. No one becomes a scientist to get rich. And fame isn't a realistic pursuit for these guys either, as underscored by the fact that 99.5% of us probably can't name a single geologist or oceanographer.

I think the best way to look at this is that when it comes to really hard questions, the best answers may or may not come from scientists, but the scientists are likely to spend the most time on that question, address that question more carefully than non-scientists, be the least glued to just one answer, the most flexible about changing mind as the evidence requires, care as much as anyone about the truth, and have the most training.

That's not enough to just blindly accept their take. And good scientists will readily admit that. It's bad thinking to believe an authority has the correct answer just because they are an authority. But that doesn't mean the opposite is true - that you should rarely trust them. Scientific authorities often, but not always have the most accurate information and perspectives available to our species.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2019, 09:49:47 AM

but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 09:56:32 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2019, 09:49:47 AM

but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results

I do not think this is the case, other than perhaps in very unusual circumstances.

We actually hear very rarely from active climate scientists in the media.  A handful have chimed in, some of those cautionary about the whole story, like Judith Curry.


https://judithcurry.com/ (https://judithcurry.com/)
 (https://judithcurry.com/)
 (https://judithcurry.com/)http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.394.9454&rep=rep1&type=pdf (http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.394.9454&rep=rep1&type=pdf)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 10:51:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2019, 09:49:47 AM

but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results

I think that sentence is internally inconsistent. Certainly, for example, the tobacco industry paid scientists to prey on specific uncertainties in evidence related to their products and cancer. But paying those guys doesn't make them good scientists.

In fact, by being rigid, manipulative, and aimed at one answer no matter what, they arguably ceased to be scientists at all. Or, if we insist to call them scientists, then they were quite poor at the scientific method and therefore poor scientists.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 10:58:10 AM

I don't think they get funding by saying climate change is real.  They want to study some aspect of it.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1005504031923 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1005504031923)

Just one example.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 12:42:33 PM

Ya but look at Petroleum.When I was a kid at any given time Shell may have gas for 42.9 cts a gallon,Unocal 41,Phillips 43.5,Gulf 44.WTF happened to that?Now everyone is exactly the same and the prices fluctuate almost identically at the same time.Sorry the fix is in there - once bitten twice shy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 01:36:00 PM

Gasoline prices on average mirror petroleum prices.  I see quite a bit of variation around me.  The closest Shell to my west was $3.09 yesterday for regular, and one north of me about the same distance almost is $2.79.  But the more expensive one is right off the freeway.

One thing I noticed is when one station gets a new load of gas the price changes and every station near them changes at the same time even if they did not get a new load.  Coscto changes when they get a load in, so if the price went up recently, get to Costco quickly, which will be cheaper anyway, and it's Top Fuel certified as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 02:59:33 PM

I have an app on my phone to find the cheapest gas around me at any time. In most places, I see about 20-cents of range in a few mile radius. Granted, at any one intersection, the prices are almost identical. Which seems like smart business.

But I'm not sure how we switched focus. Are we connecting this to the idea that "scientists are on the take."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 03:10:42 PM

Big Business which isn't below using science as a means to an end

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 03:22:05 PM

Coming back to the idea that scientists are on the take:

Close to all scientists publish in scientific journals. And close to all of them are employed by universities, the government or industry. It may not be known to non-scientists but to publish anything in a scientific journal, every author must make and sign a Conflict of Interest declaration. 

CoI disclosures identify any family ties and sources of income that could conceivably -- even just a teensy bit -- benefit from research in their favor. Universities, government and industry jobs require similar declarations be signed each year. These require dated signatures. Lying constitutes fraud. And it's punishable by loss of job, stature, or right to publish. 

From all the pestering I've gotten over the years from research compliance departments, I can tell you U-M, PSU, and Indiana University take this seriously. And given that their reputations are also on the line, that's shouldn't be surprising.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 03:52:18 PM

I don't recall signing any COI, but that was back in the day, almost before the printing press.

There was a Purdue professor named Herb Brown who took up a very unpopular stance on a topic that most thought had been resolved.  He had legions of Indian grad students and post dogs at his beck and call and he used them mercilessly, and quite effectively in this war, which erupted at several conferences with shouting.

Herb was a rotund man who did some superb chemistry in his day and eventually won the Nobel, delayed probably because no one liked him.  I THINK his point in all of this was not to take things as being "decided" when perhaps they weren't.  He conceived some very elegant experiments, and his foes did as well, and the battle was epic.  I imagine it is still studied for pedagogical purposes, the actual subject matter doesn't really matter much in any practical sense.

I don't think Herb relieved believed in his arguments, finally.  Folks ended up agreeing to disagree and move on as it was consuming a LOT of resources on an aside.  I found it fascinating.  I was at one of these conferences when Herb came in and sat down next to me, he took up two chairs, and immediately started talking to me.

I was at another conference when another fellow who had written a book I was trying to decipher sat next to me and I said "I read your book!", and he responded "All of it?", and I had to admit I was struggling with parts of it.  Jacob Israelachvilli, was his name.

I see he just recently passed away, very smart guy.  If you want to read his book, here it is:


(https://i.imgur.com/HmEo2QQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2019, 03:52:34 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2019, 09:49:47 AM

but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results

Who?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 03:54:29 PM

He became a professor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor) of inorganic chemistry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry)at Purdue University (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purdue_University) in 1947^{[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_C._Brown#cite_note-purdue-bio-6)} and joined the Beta Nu Chapter of Alpha Chi Sigma (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Chi_Sigma) there in 1960.^{[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_C._Brown#cite_note-AXE-HallOfFame-7)} He held the position of Professor Emeritus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor_Emeritus) from 1978 until his death in 2004.^{[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_C._Brown#cite_note-Nobel-bio-3)} The Herbert C. Brown Laboratory of Chemistry was named after him on Purdue University's campus. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 03:55:02 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2019, 03:52:34 PM

Who?

I was, at times, though I resisted it and got into career trouble for it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2019, 03:57:15 PM

Scientists are not on the freaking take.  Stop putting it out there!  Scientists don't care about the poltiical BS and just want to make new discoveries.  They want to recreate what others have done to check their work and/or prove others false, to become famous themselves...and not pop-culture famous, but scientifically famous.  We all know Stephen Hawking, but he MIGHT be one of the 10 most prominent astrophysicists among actual astrophysicists.  They want to become famous among their peers and to the young scientists in the next generation.  




That's all they want.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 03:59:39 PM

I would not generalize quite to that extent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 04:00:39 PM

I didn't know about any of that. I'm really attracted to how you described Herb Brown, though. Considering *anything* "proven" and literally "final" is a major pet peeve for me, too. I'm happy to assign 0.9999999 probabilities but whereas rounding up to 1.0 is practical and "feels fair," it's not scientific. It's also arrogant and erodes the public trust.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 04:03:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 03:52:18 PM

I don't recall signing any COI, but that was back in the day, almost before the printing press.

It's a modern movement. Routine over the last ten-ish years. Which is a good thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 04:06:38 PM

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1979/brown/biographical/ (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1979/brown/biographical/)

OT - About Herb Brown, his early story, I found it interesting.  He was brilliant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 04:08:04 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_L._Eliel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_L._Eliel)

This is the guy I thought I would work for in grad school, but didn't.  He was on my committee, very very nice man.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 04:13:59 PM

That's an inspiring life! Crazy how it sounds that if he'd lived a thousand lives, maybe only this one would have ended as a Laureate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 04:25:36 PM

I've been lucky to work one or two degrees from three Nobel Laureates:

One-degree:
This (Kobilka) was a main collaborator of ours, at my undergraduate laboratory (Sunahara). He flew in from San Francisco to attend our lab meeting every other month. He's a totally normal, likable guy:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Kobilka

Two-degree:
This was the post-doctoral lab (Gilman) for my advisor Sunahara:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_G._Gilman

This was the post-doctoral lab (Deisenhofer) for one of my graduate advisors (Dann):
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Deisenhofer

The unifying thread between them all is membrane protein structure. On my first project as an undergraduate, I knew my competitor was another Laureate, Rod MacKinnon. I definitely didn't win that race and had to settle for a lesser story without solving the structure of a potassium channel from human atrial myocytes. Now I'm trying to be the first to solve the structure of a specific type of ATPase in a membrane. I'd say more but I think this page is googleable and don't want to be the reason my competitors get stoked to go faster.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 04:39:19 PM

The hardest part, of course, is making sure you end up doing something better than "I used to be kind of close to some great people."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 04:47:23 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2019, 03:57:15 PM

Scientists are not on the freaking take.  Stop putting it out there!  Scientists don't care about the poltiical BS and just want to make new discoveries.  

Says you,I'm sure most are fine upstanding folks.Remember the BP Deepwater Disaster in less than 2 weeks those creeps had their own shills doing commercials saying EVERYTHING WAS ALMOST CLEANED UP.When infact they threw some type of dispersing agent all around for miles making it appear pretty & clear.Damage control when they finally are busted.They cut corners and play the oopsie card - some heads should have rolled

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 04:51:24 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 04:39:19 PM

"I used to be kind of close to some great people."

I still am I have portraits of Washington,Lincoln,Hamilton and Jefferson in my back pocket

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2019, 04:57:33 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 04:47:23 PM

Says you,I'm sure most are fine upstanding folks.Remember the BP Deepwater Disaster in less than 2 weeks those creeps had their own shills doing commercials saying EVERYTHING WAS ALMOST CLEANED UP.When infact they threw some type of dispersing agent all around for miles making it appear pretty & clear.Damage control when they finally are busted.They cut corners and play the oopsie card - some heads should have rolled

You mean the giant, multi-billion dollar company was dishonest?  What does that have anything to do with my post?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2019, 04:57:59 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 04:51:24 PM

I still am I have portraits of Washington,Lincoln,Hamilton and Jefferson in my back pocket

And you fart in their general direction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 04:58:22 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 04:47:23 PM

Says you,I'm sure most are fine upstanding folks.Remember the BP Deepwater Disaster in less than 2 weeks those creeps had their own shills doing commercials saying EVERYTHING WAS ALMOST CLEANED UP.When infact they threw some type of dispersing agent all around for miles making it appear pretty & clear.Damage control when they finally are busted.They cut corners and play the oopsie card - some heads should have rolled

Those weren't scientists I suspect.    But scientists are human beings and some WILL be corrupted by money and power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 04:58:49 PM

In my mind, "scientists" who willfully ignore evidence to guarantee that cigarettes do not cause cancer or that Deepwater Horizon is not a big deal** should not be called scientists. They've exited that realm and have become consultants.

The vast majority of climate scientists forming a concensus (interpretation) that world climate is changing, that it's due to increasing atmospheric CO2, and that this is man-made is not of this ilk. 

The vast majority (nearly all, I bet) are making Conflict Of Interest disclosures for their universities or the journals they publish in. And those COIs are probably public access, if you want to look into them.

**(I'm not sure the BP example is like the tobacco example, though. A company can buy scientists, sure. But its talking heads can also lie on their own about scientific content without asking a scientist at all. In the tobacco industry example, the faulty "scientists" were front and center)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 05:01:54 PM

BP is pretty bad IMHO about their commercials where they have some all white "lab" with folks swirling green stuff in flasks.  Those folks are actors of course.  It's PR.

I'd rather they advertised their product by claiming "Nothing is better than Amoco Ultimate!".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 05:19:35 PM

It's pretty rare, I bet, for any "scientists" or "doctors" wearing white coats in commercials to actually be scientists or doctors.

Excluding infomercials. Many of those are real scientists/doctors, though they are typically not in line with evidence-based mainstream opinions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 05:23:21 PM

Oh man, if I see another "low T" commercial suggesting that some metabolite is sure to increase testosterone production ...

Ditto for most of the products at your local GNC. I mean I get placebo, peace of mind and lying to oneself. But it's more problematic when the companies are doing the misleading. And most Americans don't understand the evidence. Or FDA involvement/noninvolvement ... or how, at best, to pop those pills is to do no more than invest in expensive urine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 05:30:58 PM

There is a ton of silliness about items we consume, food especially, when to me some simple guidelines are all we really need.

I saw a wine label that said Gluten Free.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 05:46:26 PM

Ha! I laugh when I see GF on potato chips and honey. But wine is even better. I mean I get it. Our communities are still undereducated about the idea of this wheat protein. And impressionable. So it's predictable when a food label beats its chest about being GF when, with very little education, we'd all know that thing can't have any wheat protein. Because there's a type of consumer who's more likely to buy a product, even if they wouldn't otherwise, if it flashes that symbol.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 05:52:40 PM

I don't mind that as much though. It's manipulative. But it's guaranteed true and no one can get hurt. There are many supplements for which that isn't the landscape.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 06:23:01 PM

People get hurt by paying extra for stuff they think it better.

I know there are rules for what is labeled "Organic", but who monitors compliance?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2019, 06:32:14 PM

NASA's James Hansen had a bad rep at one point for being less than truthful.  The Mann "Hockey Stick" graph has been attacked as misleading at the very best.

I'm on the road and can't access any stories I might have saved about those two scientists.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 06:43:07 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2019, 06:32:14 PM

NASA's James Hansen had a bad rep at one point for being less than truthful.  The Mann "Hockey Stick" graph has been attacked as misleading at the very best.

I'm on the road and can't access any stories I might have saved about those two scientists.

I don't know those stories, so please share them when you get back to your device.

In the meantime, I'm reminded of the grade school thing about rotten apples. That even as children we know that when one says a couple rotten ones ruin the whole batch, we know it isn't literally true that a couple bad apples make everyone else bad people, not worth believing or what-have-you. Even as kids we know that tainting a corner of something just make the rest of it *seem* diminished.

And sure, as adults perceptions still matter. But logically speaking if we find bad habits in a few scientists, that isn't sufficient reason to distrust evidence from the rest. Although nonscientists tend to judge science in political and popular terms (where perception does matter), the scientific method is actually insulated from both.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 14, 2019, 07:14:45 PM

There's perhaps no group where canonizing, demonizing, or judging-them-in-between more misses the point than with scientists**. Where the workers matter less because the ideas and evidence are completely capable of standing on their own. The scientific method succeeds because it is impersonal, emotionless.

**(I'd say philosophy and theoretical law, as in constitution- and country-making law have similar "ideas">>>"people" dynamics)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 07:29:13 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2019, 04:57:33 PM

You mean the giant, multi-billion dollar company was dishonest?  What does that have anything to do with my post?

They used "Their" scientists data please read what the rest of us are typing in entirety,kinda helps with dialogue

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2019, 07:31:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2019, 04:58:22 PM

Those weren't scientists I suspect.    But scientists are human beings and some WILL be corrupted by money and power.

Winner,winner chicken Dinner.Most wouldn't,but it only takes a couple to bend the narrative

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 06:41:27 AM

I have seen scientists consumed with the almighty dollar.  They went into management in the main in pursuit of same.

I've seen others "cheat" and be dishonest with their data often in hopes of saving face or generating more credibility.  It happens, for sure.  

I spent some time trying to look into how reliable our measurements of global mean temperatures are.  It's not an easy thing to measure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 15, 2019, 06:48:54 AM

Scientists are people.  They are quite capable of falsifying or massaging data to fit their theory.  There are many examples of this.  Scientist also compete for funding and as such cast their research proposals in the most shrill light, if you would, or just plain BS the funding agency.  This is common place.  My favorite example, besides Global Warming, was a proposal that was funded for millions of dollars by the US Army.  The proposing scientist told the army that it may be possible to fire a circular polarized laser into a cloud on the horizon and be able to tell if it was just smoke, or the specific type of chemical or biological agent.  In private and millions of dollars later the scientist would tell people that there was no way it will ever work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 15, 2019, 08:40:28 AM

Nobody here has denied that scientists can be and do wrong. Cincy and I have each said so explicitly. That a small number have bad habits and intentions. But you can't factually transform that from a story about how a few scientists are corrupted into the kind of grand conspiracy necessary to corrupt a *consensus* on climate change.

Most scientists see themselves functioning as public servants, content with modest salaries, staying more insulated from politics than the average citizen. By and large, the field has spent 400 years living up to that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 15, 2019, 09:08:47 AM

Fill a sealed glass bottle with sea water with no microorganisms, and air from 1700 AD air containing 250 ppm carbon dioxide and set it outside so it gets sun in the daytime.  During the day as the temperature of the experiment increases the concentration of CO2 in the bottled air will also increase.  The CO2 in the air will have a "normal" C12/C13 isotopic ratio.  After a couple days inject a little CO2 into the bottle that is all C12.  The air in the bottle will be C12 enriched.  If no further C12 CO2 is injected the level of enrichment will decrease over time.  If enriched CO2 continues to be injected into the bottle the CO2 in the air air will continue to be enriched in C12.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 10:28:43 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2019, 01:05:53 PM

I plan to use my license in Florida, when I "retire" there.

I've got a 100 ton Master, so there are a lot of boats that I can captain, with unlimited passengers.

Great choice. Florida is probably the best state to live, in my opinion. Can't beat the year round weather and beaches. No state income tax and great home/asset protection laws. The latter part is the reason why OJ bolted out of California and into Florida.

Sure there's a lot of people, but still a lot less people than Texas or California. And much better weather and beaches than both of those states. Beaches in California suck, the water is too cold and there's just way too many god damn people in California. Not to mention the property taxes & state income taxes are ridiculous in California and home/asset protection laws suck.

Florida really can't be beat imo. What part of Florida were ya looking at?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2019, 10:39:05 AM

Specifically, Burnt Store Marina. It's between Punta Gorda and Cape Coral. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 10:44:30 AM

too hot and humid for me

too many people, especially from the upper east coast

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 10:57:11 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2019, 10:39:05 AM

Specifically, Burnt Store Marina. It's between Punta Gorda and Cape Coral.

Oh ok, so you're gonna be west coast. I've lived in Florida for 17 years and I've been all up and down the east coast and to almost every city from Miami all the way up to Jacksonville, to the panhandle & Tallahassee, and to central Florida- Gainesville, Orlando, Ocala). Never been to the west coast one time. How sad is that?

Can't speak on the west coast of Florida, but I can tell you from everywhere I've been my favorite area is still South Florida. Why? Two words. Latin. Women.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 11:03:57 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 10:44:30 AM

too hot and humid for me

too many people, especially from the upper east coast

It's really only super hot and humid during the summer. Weather is basically perfect from fall to winter to spring. Summer hits- it's hot as all hell and humid. But that's what shorts, short sleeve shirts, and AC were all invented for my friend. 

I'm from Detroit. I'll take the hot, rainy summers that last a few months over the excruciating, depressing freezing shithole buried in snow, sky always grey all day long, ice, shoveling snow and de-icing the car, and freezing your nuts off winters that run into the spring of the Midwest. Chicago had like polar ice vortex storms with -46 degree temps last winter. Uh, yeah, no thanks.

Not that many people in Florida. Only 21 million. You want to talk about too many people. Cali has like 40 million and Texas has like 30 million. There's way too many people in California and Texas, especially from Mexico.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 11:36:59 AM

The wife claims to like hot weather.  We looked a fair bit in Florida here and there.  The combination that struck our fancy was something we did not find.

I'm pretty flexible personally.  I wanted manageable taxes and decent weather.  She wanted a vibrant walkable urban atmosphere.  I had never lived in an urban area before and I find I like it a lot, so does she.  Access to a large airport is important for us as well.  Our kids come to visit a lot more often now, even mine when they lived in C-bus.  There is a difference between having to drive anywhere you want to go and being able to walk a few blocks.  It's not for everyone obviously,  Most folks in the area are young with young kids and lots of dogs.  I've never seen so many dogs.

Humidity today is 39% right now and a high forecast of 94°F.  Cincinnati is more humid than here routinely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 11:43:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 11:36:59 AM

The wife claims to like hot weather.  We looked a fair bit in Florida here and there.  The combination that struck our fancy was something we did not find.

I'm pretty flexible personally.  I wanted manageable taxes and decent weather.  She wanted a vibrant walkable urban atmosphere.  I had never lived in an urban area before and I find I like it a lot, so does she.  Access to a large airport is important for us as well.  Our kids come to visit a lot more often now, even mine when they lived in C-bus.  There is a difference between having to drive anywhere you want to go and being able to walk a few blocks.  It's not for everyone obviously,  Most folks in the area are young with young kids and lots of dogs.  I've never seen so many dogs.

Humidity today is 39% right now and a high forecast of 94°F.  Cincinnati is more humid than here routinely.

My brother lives in Atlanta. If I didn't live in South Florida, Atlanta is where I'd live. I absolutely love it there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 11:52:26 AM

The traffic here of course is a serious problem, but generally we avoid it by walking or only going somewhere midday.  My RE taxes took a large jump unfortunately but I found a law firm that says it will make an appeal for me for 45% of the value they save me for one year.  I gather they send comps and whatnot with legalistic jargon so it might work.  The downside is I paid more for this place than the assessed value.

We take MARTA to the airport unless we have a ton of luggage and it is hot.  Going to SF next month, probably will do Uber/Lyft,

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 12:03:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 11:52:26 AM

The traffic here of course is a serious problem, but generally we avoid it by walking or only going somewhere midday.  My RE taxes took a large jump unfortunately but I found a law firm that says it will make an appeal for me for 45% of the value they save me for one year.  I gather they send comps and whatnot with legalistic jargon so it might work.  The downside is I paid more for this place than the assessed value.

We take MARTA to the airport unless we have a ton of luggage and it is hot.  Going to SF next month, probably will do Uber/Lyft,

Traffic absoutley sucks here too. But hey, that's the price you pay for living in a desirable location. If you take a lot of Uber rides, the ride pass is probably the way to go. It's $14.99 a month but you get up to a 35% discount on every ride you take for that month. I have one for the Miami-Ft-Laud-WPB metro area. Damn near every ride in that tri-county area I take is 35% off.

They just opened up that high speed rail that Richard Branson's Virgin group partnered on that goes from downtown WPB to downtown Miami with a stop in downtown Ft. Lauderdale in about an hr and costs as little as $10 each way. Beats the hell out of driving and the train stations and trains are all brand new and beautiful. Supposeduly going to build high speed rail lines from WPB to Orlando to extend the route. Would be pretty damn cool to be able to take cheap, high speed rail from Miami to Orlando.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2019, 12:14:41 PM

The West Coast of FL is definitely a Midwestern retirement zone. East Coast is mostly NY, NE and Europe.

We'll live on our boat in Kenosha for the summers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 12:18:20 PM

"To be accurate, the Brightline isn’t technically high-speed, offering a top speed of 120 miles per hour and expected operating average of 80 mph, especially, compared to European and Asian systems."

I think this is a good idea in certain areas even if it's not "high speed".  You don't need high speed unless you're going hundreds of miles.  We're supposed to get commuter rail down to Jonesboro and perhaps Macon.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/after-years-rail-service-marta-poised-for-expansion/riVqZ2OWwrcHXKRXFy1mQL/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/after-years-rail-service-marta-poised-for-expansion/riVqZ2OWwrcHXKRXFy1mQL/)

This isn't as fast as Brightline and won't go as far.  Be nice is the systems were standardized.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 12:32:34 PM

Quote

The West Coast of FL is definitely a Midwestern retirement zone. East Coast is mostly NY, NE and Europe.

We'll live on our boat in Kenosha for the summers.

There's lots of midwestern people in Palm Beach county. The NY/NE thing I feel like is mostly Boca Raton and Broward county. 

Don't forget the Russians. The Russians are taking over Sunny Isles right now. So damn many of them. With stupid money too. Lots of Israeli's/Jews in Boca, Miami Beach, and North Miami Beach. The dirty Europeans are mostly confined in South Beach. Seems like the Europeans just love to send their Euro-trash directly to South Beach.

And then there's the Cubans. They are like 35% of Miami. Literally. Then you've got a small amount of people from Argentina, Venezula, Colombia, and Puerto Rico. Which I don't mind at all because those 5 countries probably have the hottest women on earth. Most definitely a hell of a lot better looking than the Mexican women you find in California and Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 12:39:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 12:18:20 PM

"To be accurate, the Brightline isn’t technically high-speed, offering a top speed of 120 miles per hour and expected operating average of 80 mph, especially, compared to European and Asian systems."

I think this is a good idea in certain areas even if it's not "high speed".  You don't need high speed unless you're going hundreds of miles.  We're supposed to get commuter rail down to Jonesboro and perhaps Macon.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/after-years-rail-service-marta-poised-for-expansion/riVqZ2OWwrcHXKRXFy1mQL/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/after-years-rail-service-marta-poised-for-expansion/riVqZ2OWwrcHXKRXFy1mQL/)

This isn't as fast as Brightline and won't go as far.  Be nice is the systems were standardized.

Yeah, the Brightline trains- now called Virgin Trains USA- can't go 120+ mph the entire route from WPB to Ft Laud to Miami- just not enough empty land and way too much population in the area and it's actually a very short route. WPB to Miami is only maybe 60-70 miles. But sometimes it can take you 2 to 3 hrs to make that trip just because of the freaking traffic on 95.

I've been on the high speed trains in Europe that go 180+, love it. Wish we had some of that here in the states.

My absolute guess is the train will go a lot faster when they extend it from WPB to Orlando. You'd tihnk that would be the case. That's hundreds of miles and plenty of empty land, low populated areas, and it's a much longer distance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2019, 12:48:32 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 12:32:34 PM

There's lots of midwestern people in Palm Beach county. The NY/NE thing I feel like is mostly Boca Raton and Broward county. 

Don't forget the Russians. The Russians are taking over Sunny Isles right now. So damn many of them. With stupid money too. Lots of Israeli's/Jews in Boca, Miami Beach, and North Miami Beach. The dirty Europeans are mostly confined in South Beach. Seems like the Europeans just love to send their Euro-trash directly to South Beach.

And then there's the Cubans. They are like 35% of Miami. Literally. Then you've got a small amount of people from Argentina, Venezula, Colombia, and Puerto Rico. Which I don't mind at all because those 5 countries probably have the hottest women on earth. Most definitely a hell of a lot better looking than the Mexican women you find in California and Texas.

That's true about PBC. I have some friends there from Chicago.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 12:51:27 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 11:03:57 AM

It's really only super hot and humid during the summer. Weather is basically perfect from fall to winter to spring. Summer hits- it's hot as all hell and humid. But that's what shorts, short sleeve shirts, and AC were all invented for my friend.

I'm from Detroit. I'll take the hot, rainy summers that last a few months over the excruciating, depressing freezing shithole buried in snow, sky always grey all day long, ice, shoveling snow and de-icing the car, and freezing your nuts off winters that run into the spring of the Midwest. Chicago had like polar ice vortex storms with -46 degree temps last winter. Uh, yeah, no thanks.

Not that many people in Florida. Only 21 million. You want to talk about too many people. Cali has like 40 million and Texas has like 30 million. There's way too many people in California and Texas, especially from Mexico.

FT. Lauderdale was hot and humid in Dec-Jan for the Orange bowl back in the 90s

Been to Orlando a few times, seemed hot and humid there each time

I liked St. Pete but plenty of humidity near the beach

70% humidity here in NW Iowa at the moment

I certainly agree about winters here - they suck

I'm thinking someplace like New Mexico, less humidity, fewer people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 12:56:12 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 12:51:27 PM

FT. Lauderdale was hot and humid in Dec-Jan for the Orange bowl back in the 90s

Been to Orlando a few times, seemed hot and humid there each time

I liked St. Pete but plenty of humidity near the beach

70% humidity here in NW Iowa at the moment

I certainly agree about winters here - they suck

I'm thinking someplace like New Mexico, less humidity, fewer people.

A dry 122 degree day is just as miserable if not more than a humid 95 degree. Also: no water, no beaches and borders Mexico. Hard pass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 12:57:33 PM

I was in Albequerque for a bit, really liked it.  It does get cold of course.

Had some great good there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 01:00:21 PM

Weather should be a large consideration when you retire (for most).  My retirement monies are mostly in a pretax IRA, so state income taxes is a factor for me.

I kept my gold clubs but have not played since we've been here.  There is a course near me but I'm pretty sure it's private.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 01:05:17 PM

I'm thinkin something like Albuquerque or Santa Fe, maybe north of there.  Get some elevation and lose some humidity.

Expected high of 98 in Albuquerque, but it will feel like 98

Sewer City, IA expects 91, but it will feel like over 100

Santa Fe expects 90, humidity at 45%

Farmington NM expects 96, but humidity is 28%

Farmington is nearly in Colorado, long way from the border

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 01:07:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 01:00:21 PM

Weather should be a large consideration when you retire (for most).  My retirement monies are mostly in a pretax IRA, so state income taxes is a factor for me.

I kept my gold clubs but have not played since we've been here.  There is a course near me but I'm pretty sure it's private.

State income tax will be a factor for me as well.

All I need is some decent weather for golf and a decent 18 hole course.  Neither of them need to be perfect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2019, 03:59:32 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 10:44:30 AM

too hot and humid for me

too many people, especially from the upper east coast

Yeah, I can't handle the humidity. I can deal with heat, but the humidity is crushing, and then with humidity you get mosquitoes. If I could wave a magic wand and exterminate mosquitoes from the planet, I'd do it.

Now, it's possible that would completely and totally disrupt the ecosystem by removing those mosquitoes from the food chain, destroying the environment and ending human civilization as a result.

I'd still do it. 

Quote from: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 11:03:57 AM

Not that many people in Florida. Only 21 million. You want to talk about too many people. Cali has like 40 million and Texas has like 30 million. There's way too many people in California and Texas, especially from Mexico.

Remember that California is an ENORMOUS state. And most of those people are located in two areas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_megapolitan_areas), the LA/San Diego megalopolis, and the SF Bay Area. 

30M of the state's total 41M people live in those metropolitan areas. Which means if you're looking for a place where you're retiring (i.e. you don't need to center your life around a job), there are a LOT of options that aren't overcrowded. And that's not just inland... Big swaths of the central coast aren't overpopulated because there aren't enough jobs to justify it, and then you have beautiful places that are only slightly inland like Paso Robles. I'd gladly retire someplace like Paso. 

I won't deny that the cost of living is terrible, and the taxes are ruinous, but outside of that, California is pretty perfect. Especially with all that delicious, delicious Mexican food ;-) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 15, 2019, 04:01:02 PM

Here's guessing you all will be complaining about the heat and humidity once you retire and move south. The past few weeks have been a strong reminder about why I dislike DC summer weather much more than I disliked Michigan and Chicago winters. I can't imagine living anywhere further south. Each to your own though. Everyone has their own temperature tolerance.

Regardless, hopefully you all at least are moving some of your money away from stocks before the market inevitably crashes. Some of the online banks now offers savings accounts with interest rates of over 2%.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2019, 04:06:22 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 12:56:12 PM

A dry 122 degree day is just as miserable if not more than a humid 95 degree. Also: no water, no beaches and borders Mexico. Hard pass.

I had a business trip a couple years ago that was a day in Phoenix followed by a day in Albuquerque, in the dead of summer. Phoenix was ~115 degrees. Albuquerque was mid-high 90s. 

I agree with you that the "but it's a dry heat" doesn't matter if you're in a place hot enough that it's a damn oven. But Albuquerque isn't like that, because of the elevation. You're a mile up. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 15, 2019, 04:13:34 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 15, 2019, 04:01:02 PM

Here's guessing you all will be complaining about the heat and humidity once you retire and move south. The past few weeks have been a strong reminder about why I dislike DC summer weather much more than I disliked Michigan and Chicago winters. I can't imagine living anywhere further south. Each to your own though. Everyone has their own temperature tolerance.

Regardless, hopefully you all at least are moving some of your money away from stocks before the market inevitably crashes. Some of the online banks now offers savings accounts with interest rates of over 2%.

I despise cold.  I despise snow unless I'm skiing on a mountain in it.  I much prefer a Central Texas summer over a northern winter. 

If anything, even Austin gets too cold for me during the winter.  I clearly need to move someplace tropical.

 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on July 15, 2019, 04:19:20 PM

It took awhile, but I came to realize my parent's love affair with retirement in WY.   They detest humidity, and while they may hit 90 here and there during the summer, its sunny all the time, and dry.  It's got all of the recreation they were seeking, and not the extreme/nastiness of the NE and WI winters they experienced much of their life.  Of course WY is a huge state, and they are knowingly isolated, but they could've picked all sorts of non-high desert areas and gotten socked by snow, wind and cold.  Different strokes for us all.

Fla. is a seasonal stop for me, same with the PHX valley.  Wouldn't be caught in those places if I can help it between April-September.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2019, 04:40:07 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 15, 2019, 04:13:34 PM

I despise cold.  I despise snow unless I'm skiing on a mountain in it.  I much prefer a Central Texas summer over a northern winter.

If anything, even Austin gets too cold for me during the winter.  I clearly need to move someplace tropical.

Yeah, although I don't want to go back to Chicago winter, I don't mind some cold. I handle cold better than I do heat. 

Quote from: MarqHusker on July 15, 2019, 04:19:20 PM

It took awhile, but I came to realize my parent's love affair with retirement in WY.  They detest humidity, and while they may hit 90 here and there during the summer, its sunny all the time, and dry.  It's got all of the recreation they were seeking, and not the extreme/nastiness of the NE and WI winters they experienced much of their life.  Of course WY is a huge state, and they are knowingly isolated, but they could've picked all sorts of non-high desert areas and gotten socked by snow, wind and cold.  Different strokes for us all.

Fla. is a seasonal stop for me, same with the PHX valley.  Wouldn't be caught in those places if I can help it between April-September.

Yep. My parents moved to CO a few years ago. Coming from Chicago, they were looking at KY and CO. My mom's doctor said to avoid places that were hot and humid, and thus it was CO. 

Denver winters are nothing like Chicago winters. Yeah, they might get a foot of snow dropped on them. And then the sun comes out, and the temp hits 40, and it melts. Unlike Chicago where it's consistent below freezing every day from December through February. 

Denver is on my short list of places I'd willingly live. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 04:46:32 PM

yup, Colorado just north of New Mex might be a place to land, or Kansas

I couldn't live in a big city like Denver, Albuquerque is probably too big for me, but I could live on the outskirts in a small town.

California would be a great place to live if it weren't for taxes and cost of living.  Don't think I can afford to live there in retirement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 15, 2019, 05:24:43 PM

I couldn't live in a big city either, at least not indefinitely (a few years while still young wouldn't kill me). The dream is to find a nice college town of 100-300K with nature surrounding ... and buy a home outside of town in that nature.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 05:34:43 PM

I thought about northern Nevada.  Close to CA but without the taxes.  Somewhere east of Tahoe and the tourists.  Carson City perhaps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 06:46:47 PM

that sounds nice

I also thought about Vegas, cheap flights, low humidity, low taxes

I'd have to live outside the city

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2019, 07:40:05 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on July 15, 2019, 10:28:43 AM

Great choice. Florida is probably the best state to live, in my opinion. Can't beat the year round weather and beaches. No state income tax and great home/asset protection laws. The latter part is the reason why OJ bolted out of California and into Florida.

Sure there's a lot of people, but still a lot less people than Texas or California. And much better weather and beaches than both of those states. Beaches in California suck, the water is too cold and there's just way too many god damn people in California. Not to mention the property taxes & state income taxes are ridiculous in California and home/asset protection laws suck.

Florida really can't be beat imo. What part of Florida were ya looking at?

Considering just physical geography factors, California has it all over Florida.  On human geography factors, it's the reverse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2019, 07:45:32 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 01:05:17 PM

I'm thinkin something like Albuquerque or Santa Fe, maybe north of there.  Get some elevation and lose some humidity.

Expected high of 98 in Albuquerque, but it will feel like 98

Sewer City, IA expects 91, but it will feel like over 100

Santa Fe expects 90, humidity at 45%

Farmington NM expects 96, but humidity is 28%

Farmington is nearly in Colorado, long way from the border

My MIL lives in Santa Fe.  We go there twice a year to visit and listen to her tell us how wonderful, I mean WONDERful and MARvelous it is there.  Santa Fe is the arts community, the rich retirees from elsewhere living in gated communities, and a bunch of people who work there but can't afford to live there.  It's got to be one of the worst-governed cities in America.
I wouldn't retire there on a bet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2019, 07:47:27 PM

California is too shaky for me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 08:33:28 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 15, 2019, 07:45:32 PM

My MIL lives in Santa Fe.  We go there twice a year to visit and listen to her tell us how wonderful, I mean WONDERful and MARvelous it is there.  Santa Fe is the arts community, the rich retirees from elsewhere living in gated communities, and a bunch of people who work there but can't afford to live there.  It's got to be one of the worst-governed cities in America.
I wouldn't retire there on a bet.

I'll try to remember that
golf courses???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2019, 08:54:30 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2019, 07:47:27 PM

California is too shaky for me.

The Midwest has tornadoes, the east and Southeast have hurricanes, Colorado is sitting on top of radiation, and must of the West will be kaput once the Yellowstone Caldera goes boom.

All things equal, the earthquakes aren't much worse than the rest of it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2019, 09:13:59 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 08:33:28 PM

I'll try to remember that
golf courses???

I don't know.
Ski slopes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2019, 09:32:45 PM

No hurricanes here, but some tornadoes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 15, 2019, 09:51:23 PM

There's no mincing it for me: I adore the desert. Plus, my wife has connections in Albuquerque and could happily spend a life there. I'd already have signed up ... except as a guy who grew up on a Great Lakes island I've developed an opinion that, no matter our technology, if an area can't supply any of its own water, giving that region a million (or even hundred-thousand) people is dumb/arrogant/both.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2019, 10:55:48 PM

yup, gotta have irrigation for the golf course

gotta keep the greens soft and the fairways green

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 07:28:52 AM

New Mex gets some water from snow melt, they have some mountains of course.  They are less populated than AZ which is drier.  

The ATL had water problems for a decade or so.  Then the rains came, all the reservoirs now are at full, it's amazing to see the change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2019, 07:33:25 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 15, 2019, 08:54:30 PM

The Midwest has tornadoes, the east and Southeast have hurricanes, Colorado is sitting on top of radiation, and must of the West will be kaput once the Yellowstone Caldera goes boom.

All things equal, the earthquakes aren't much worse than the rest of it.

Well, there is nothing in the Midwest, East or Southeast that will cause the locations to be kaput, I wouldn't call that equal.


Screw Colorado. It's too high.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2019, 07:36:12 AM

People should not live in deserts. Same for living in a floodplain, behind a levee.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 07:36:18 AM

The lowest point in CO is 3300 feet above sea level as I recall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 07:37:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2019, 07:36:12 AM

People should not live in deserts. Same for living in a floodplain, behind a levee.

People probably shouldn't live 45 miles from city center and then commute by car either, but they do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2019, 08:09:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 07:36:18 AM

The lowest point in CO is 3300 feet above sea level as I recall.

That's still very high. Too high.


(https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.yhs-sUZYWV4ldGvRz0WwugHaEK&w=187&h=105&c=8&rs=1&qlt=90&dpr=1.56&pid=3.1&rm=2) (https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=picture+of+pot+leaf&id=911ABA3CB24C0060417CDFE4FE94995B4177B86E&FORM=IQFRBA)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2019, 08:12:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 07:37:09 AM

People probably shouldn't live 45 miles from city center and then commute by car either, but they do.

Yep, that's a conundrum. You have to be where the jobs are, but you can't afford to live close. I see that a lot here.

The good thing about here, at least, is the public transit. It's one of a few things Chicago gets right.

It works, and for those who do live way out there, Metra serves well. It's not cheap, but if you factor in fuel, maintenance and parking, it's a lot less.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 08:26:47 AM

The issue in Atlanta is it has no geographic boundaries.  My cousin bought a house 45 miles from downtown 30 years back because they could get an acre wooded lot and very nice house for not too much.  He drives to work each day, gets up at 4:30 AM to miss traffic.  But they have a nice affordable house in Dacula (real name).

I grew up about 12 miles out, dad drove downtown every day, back then we were on the outskirts of suburbia, had a half acre or so wooded lot with very private back yard.

And the State built more freeways of course and widened the existing ones to enable folks to live further out, for a time.

The usual story.  Hard rail is just too expensive to expand.  And some folks won't ride MARTA because there are people there who are not like them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2019, 09:46:05 AM

MARTA is a lot like the CTA train cars here, so yeah, they can get dicey. Been there, done that, and have seen issues.

Metra is much different and almost 100 percent geared toward commuters, and they have their own police and conductors. I've never seen any issues.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2019, 09:48:29 AM

shudder

I'll just stay away from the big cities

any city over 100,000 is too big - the metro area here is less than 100,000 and I wouldn't live or work in the middle of it.

town I live in is less than 500 folks, but it's less than 15 minutes from the edge of the 100,000 folks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 10:07:17 AM

I don't know CTA, but we use MARTA a lot.  I don't see a problem with it except it's too limited in scope.

When you hit 65, a ticket is a dollar, less if you buy 20.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 16, 2019, 11:00:53 AM

Quote

The Midwest has tornadoes, the east and Southeast have hurricanes, Colorado is sitting on top of radiation, and must of the West will be kaput once the Yellowstone Caldera goes boom.

All things equal, the earthquakes aren't much worse than the rest of it.

Midwest doesn't have too many tornadoes. I lived in Michigan most my life, never even saw a tornado once. And the tornadoes that did hit in Michigan that you heard about were all little baby ones like F0-1. Not the massive F4/F5's that destroy enitre towns. That's more the southwest's deal. As far as the midwest goes, it's the bone crushing cold, snow, ice, sleet, and miserable grey sky with zero sun and the cold rainy days where it rains ALL f'ing day that make that place unlivable. In Florida it rains hard for an hour or two and then the sun is back out and everything is dry in an hour. Never rains all motherf'n day like it does in Michigan. Like how the F does the rain just go ALL. DAY. LONG.

The hurricanes suck, but you have a couple weeks notice when one is going to possibly be in your vicinity. And you know several days before if it's gonna come close to you or not. You know they are coming way before they come. Shutter up, park the car in the garage and hop on an airplane. Earthquakes? You've got zero warning for that shit. Out of the blue, BAM. No thanks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2019, 11:01:17 AM

CTA comprises the subway and elevated lines, mostly within the city itself. Metra is the commuter rail lines that strategically go N, NW, W, SW and S. These all go into the suburbs (The N one goes into SE Wisconsin).

https://metrarail.com/maps-schedules/system-map

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 11:16:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/y2hUprh.jpg)



(https://i.imgur.com/evYEsdB.png)

Look pretty similar.  MARTA is apparently looking for new cars that can pick up power from a third rail as well as from above the train.

https://saportareport.com/marta-replace-rail-car-fleet-2026-seeks-cars-can-travel-streets-freight-lines/ (https://saportareport.com/marta-replace-rail-car-fleet-2026-seeks-cars-can-travel-streets-freight-lines/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 16, 2019, 11:39:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 11:16:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/y2hUprh.jpg)



(https://i.imgur.com/evYEsdB.png)

Look pretty similar.  MARTA is apparently looking for new cars that can pick up power from a third rail as well as from above the train.

https://saportareport.com/marta-replace-rail-car-fleet-2026-seeks-cars-can-travel-streets-freight-lines/ (https://saportareport.com/marta-replace-rail-car-fleet-2026-seeks-cars-can-travel-streets-freight-lines/)

shit like that should be in every major city in the US. public transport and infrastructure in general here blows ass.

Imagine what this country could look like had it been invested into instead of wasting $6 trillion on pointless wars that our government lied us into in Iraq and Afghanistan (where we still are and have been for EIGHTEEN f'n years) and operating 900+ bases in over 80 countries and spending over $1 trillion a year on the defense budget. That shit blows my mind and pisses me off every time I think about it. Insanity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 11:47:05 AM

Heavy rail gets insanely expensive.  Atlanta is lucky to have built it in the 1970s and 1980s.  Everyone expected the system to get expanded over time, but with one exception that has not happened.  The planned expansion from here is light rail and a commuter train.  The major outer counties have not bought in.

The good news is that development around many of the stations has gone crazy, it has been a huge draw for new apartments and condos and office buildings.  Midtown likely doesn't exist anything like it does today without MARTA.  Neither would Buckhead, which you can see in the distance here.

(https://i.imgur.com/lzWh7iJ.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 16, 2019, 12:21:43 PM

I think I've said this before, but unfortunately it's not really cost-effective to invest in new mass transit systems and expansion plans are even difficult to get funded (The DC Metro's Silver Line that will eventually get to Dulles Airport being one example). The hope is that autonomous vehicles will be available soon to make ride-sharing more cost-effective. I just discovered yesterday that VW and Ford have partnered and are testing AVs in DC with the goal of making them available in 2 years. Tesla apparently wants to deploy its full-fledged self-driving mode by next year, too. I'm simultaneously hopeful and skeptical....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 12:27:10 PM

I've opined before that autonomous cars are going to change our world, and fairly soon, and a lot.

I've been in a CT6 with Supercruise and it's amazing.  Our GTI will drive itself on freeways for 15 seconds or so before it notices your hands are not on the wheel.

https://www.motortrend.com/cars/cadillac/ct6/2018/2018-cadillac-ct6-super-cruise-review/ (https://www.motortrend.com/cars/cadillac/ct6/2018/2018-cadillac-ct6-super-cruise-review/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 16, 2019, 12:29:50 PM

Arguing that some pretty places are inherently better than others is a flawed way of seeing this. Every region in america is plenty awesome and parsing the nitty gritty brings us into personal preferences that only reinforce how silly it is for someone who loves one place to debate with someone who loves a different place

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 16, 2019, 12:34:04 PM

I gleefully welcome our autonomous overlords. I don't mind being in a car for ten hours straight and often am, but to be driving it that whole time ... Monotonously responsible? Attentive? Ugh. That's the worst.

Just let me recline and read.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2019, 12:45:20 PM

gonna be a few years out here


I'll man the steering wheel

(https://assets1.roadtrippers.com/uploads/poi_gallery_image/image/374836326/-quality_60_-interlace_Plane_-resize_1024x480_U__-gravity_center_-extent_1024x480/place_image-image-4f796786-3b2a-452a-bc7a-cd9dd1db9b19.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 12:51:06 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 16, 2019, 12:29:50 PM

Arguing that some pretty places are inherently better than others is dumb. Every region in america is plenty awesome and parsing the nitty gritty brings us into personal preferences that only reinforce how silly it is for someone who loves one place to debate with someone who loves a different place

I do appreciate hearing opinions around here as to why folks like X or Y, for obvious reasons.  We have an unusual group.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 16, 2019, 01:05:36 PM

"X is great, because ..." 

≠ 

"X > Y, because ..."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 01:06:29 PM

The posters around here mostly say they prefer X over Y, not that X is better than Y, period.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 16, 2019, 01:17:18 PM

"Mostly"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 16, 2019, 01:26:39 PM

Granted, I think most seriously negative opinions about places are silly. There's a saying about bad weather. That weather can never be miserable. It can only be itself. The miserable thing is the mental attitude some people pick to have about it. I happen to think that's a good and widely missed point.And the same has to go for places. A given spot in the U.S. doesn't have to be exclusively rainbows for everyone. Picking our opinions about places is obviously personal. So, someone can pick to be miserable about a place. But the place itself wasn't sufficient for that emotion, nor did it make it inevitable. And there's truth in pointing it out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 01:36:20 PM

I'd like in Sonoma or Marin or Mendocino county other than the obvious problems.

"If I had a zillion dollars ..."

Our "wine drinking friends" in Cincy adore Europe, and France, and found it bizarre that we didn't move there, coupled with my wife's comments if they pinned her down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 01:51:35 PM

The wife and I spent one night with her cousin in St. Tropez.  Her husband was some big shot and they had an impressive place very near town, pool, a personal chef, the works.  Her cousin is about my age and a real looker even so, used to be a model I'm told and believe it.  Anyway, the then husband (now divorced) wanted to take to some bar on the waterfront to "see and be seen".  The "boats" docked there were impressive, I think they were nearly all 60 footers, and even more impressive were the yachts out in the bay that were too large to be docked.

I guess if I had a zillion dollars I'd be on one of them in the Med with crew etc.  Maybe my country of residence would be Monaco.  The Med is free of pirates and bad storms, it's sort of like a large Great Lake with salt.  Arthur Blank just bought one for $280 MILLION, I don't think he has it on Lake Lanier.

I know one lady pretty well who has that kind of money and she has problems and issues in her life as well.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2019, 02:03:14 PM

hah, if I won a $200,000,000 lottery I don't think I could afford to live in Tiburon CA in Marin county.

Well, not with the membership at the yacht club and all the trimming

but, that is a great place if money wasn't a thing

I love Sam's Anchor Cafe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 02:12:24 PM

If you had $200 mil after taxes, you could scrape by, in part because you wouldn't need any income.

My definition of wealthy is a person who does not need any income.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2019, 02:29:31 PM

see that's the issue.  Not sure what wednesday's powerball is at, but then they'd tax the crap out of the winnings

I could scrap by a few blocks away from Sam's anchor cafe and do some walking.  But, a nice place on Belvedere Island would eat up millions in taxes and utilities and upkeep.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/11/62/8a/11628a699464f16973d8d8c723f81717.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2019, 02:41:49 PM

If you have $200 million after tax, you are obviously in good shape but can't yet hang with the whales.

Put it all into CA municipals and get 2% AT, that's $4 mil a year in cash.  You would need to spend say $50 mil on your estate and whatnot, so perhaps only $3 mil in pocket money a year.

You could drag another $5 mil a year from capital.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2019, 09:25:34 PM

@847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) getting from midway to downtown... It's the orange line safe or dicey? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 16, 2019, 11:17:13 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 16, 2019, 09:25:34 PM

@847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) getting from midway to downtown... It's the orange line safe or dicey?

It's been over a year since I lived there but I've taken the Orange line to/from Midway many times and never had any problems. The neighborhoods it goes through aren't nice, but they're not dangerous, either, from what I could tell. It's also somewhat faster to get to the Loop from there compared to OHare, not to mention taking Southwest and avoiding much more likely delays* makes it worth it.

*For the job I ended up taking there originally, I went there to interview and had to go through OHare, and my return trip got delayed from that evening to the following morning. Sleeping at the gate was pretty annoying.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2019, 08:14:09 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 16, 2019, 09:25:34 PM

@847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) getting from midway to downtown... It's the orange line safe or dicey?

No issues during the daytime.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2019, 08:30:59 AM

The red line is the one to worry about (South of the Loop), to be honest. Things like this

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-police-questioning-man-in-red-line-stabbing-20190716-eo25b3joxfbyxjdzwaw3k2stc4-story.html

Happen pretty frequently on this line.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 04:28:17 PM

In TSLA news, they delivered a record number of vehicles (including a lot of inventory vehicles, boosting operating cash flows)...

...and still recorded a $400M quarterly loss. 

Ouch. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2019, 04:33:21 PM

small potatoes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 30, 2019, 04:45:35 PM

Tesla is now also scaling up their battery division (which I've argued before is probably their best long-term strategy as the traditional automakers get into the EV market), through building their largest and most cost-effective utility scale systems. They're calling them megapacks. Most new utility scale solar systems now include integrated battery (or some other form of energy storage) systems, because that's still cheaper than building a new gas plant in many areas now.

Apparently there's also a bipartisan bill in Congress to invest in transportation infrastructure including EV charging stations, along with legislation for a national energy efficiency standard, but I'm skeptical of that coming about before 2021, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 04:50:51 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 30, 2019, 04:45:35 PM

Tesla is now also scaling up their battery division (which I've argued before is probably their best long-term strategy as the traditional automakers get into the EV market), through building their largest and most cost-effective utility scale systems. They're calling them megapacks. Most new utility scale solar systems now include integrated battery (or some other form of energy storage) systems, because that's still cheaper than building a new gas plant in many areas now.

Apparently there's also a bipartisan bill in Congress to invest in transportation infrastructure including EV charging stations, along with legislation for a national energy efficiency standard, but I'm skeptical of that coming about before 2021, of course.

I don't know that much about Tesla's actual in-house battery capability. I thought the bulk of the battery production [at least for the cars] was Panasonic, although Tesla adds a lot of value farther up at the pack and beyond levels... I thought the delays on Powerwalls were largely due to Panasonic not being able to scale batteries as quickly as Tesla wanted them.

And you know Congress. They'll wait until Tesla and the other automakers build out a charging infrastructure that gets 85% of the way there, then throw some federal money at it, and claim credit for the whole thing. Typical. :96:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 30, 2019, 05:02:19 PM

Tesla could ultimately become viable. Musk is an odd businessman, though, and in some senses I am not convinced he cares. No doubt he cares that it succeeds *enough* to accomplish his ends, but if you take him at his word - and maybe we should - his primary aim isn't the standard deal about personal wealth, it's the ambition (and associated ego, I'm sure) of making it economically viable to reduce average citizen carbon footprint by popularizing EVs. And Tesla doesn't have to last a century to accomplish that. It just has to last long enough to durably alter the market, namely of the major manufacturers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 05:20:23 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on July 30, 2019, 05:02:19 PM

Tesla could ultimately become viable. Musk is an odd businessman, though, and in some senses I am not convinced he cares. No doubt he cares that it succeeds *enough* to accomplish his ends, but if you take him at his word - and maybe we should - his primary aim isn't the standard deal about personal wealth, it's the ambition (and associated ego, I'm sure) of making it economically viable to reduce average citizen carbon footprint by popularizing EVs. And Tesla doesn't have to last a century to accomplish that. It just has to last long enough to durably alter the market, namely of the major manufacturers.

Tesla could become viable. I think they are in a difficult position, as are many startup companies who gain first-mover-advantage but don't have significant technological moat, where they can raise the capital to show the market that a market exists, but can't generate enough capital to then compete against incumbents. But they could become viable if they are able to reduce costs faster than they move down-market to achieve mass market price points, or if they are able to solve Level 5 FSD sooner rather than later and beat the rest of the automakers to the bunch.

But if his actual position as CEO isn't to operate the company in the fiduciary interests of its stockholders, he shouldn't be CEO. Not that Musk is very familiar with what is necessary to remain within the letter of SEC regulations...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 30, 2019, 05:42:13 PM

I believe most of Tesla's batteries are now built in their Nevada gigafactory. My understanding is that the reason they haven't sold as many PowerWalls (residential batteries) as expected is because they've been prioritizing utility scale systems (eg. the biggest system ever in Australia last year).

The way Tesla can still distinguish itself from other auto companies is if they actually come through with implementing fully autonomous driving before the others do and associated ride-sharing systems and the like. Musk has overpromised and underdelivered too many times to think they'll pull that off, though....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2019, 06:06:50 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 30, 2019, 05:42:13 PM

I believe most of Tesla's batteries are now built in their Nevada gigafactory. My understanding is that the reason they haven't sold as many PowerWalls (residential batteries) as expected is because they've been prioritizing utility scale systems (eg. the biggest system ever in Australia last year).

The way Tesla can still distinguish itself from other auto companies is if they actually come through with implementing fully autonomous driving before the others do and associated ride-sharing systems and the like. Musk has overpromised and underdelivered too many times to think they'll pull that off, though....

But is Tesla supposed to be a car manufacturer of EV, or are they supposed to be a self-driving pilot program?  If I'm a Tesla customer for an EV today, will they care about me in 10 years?  5 years?  Do they even care about me now?  Or if I'm a stockholder or investor, am I supposed to be happy with a pivot away from the original idea and be satisfied that we're going in a different direction just because it's Musk's whim?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 06:27:08 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 30, 2019, 05:42:13 PM

I believe most of Tesla's batteries are now built in their Nevada gigafactory. My understanding is that the reason they haven't sold as many PowerWalls (residential batteries) as expected is because they've been prioritizing utility scale systems (eg. the biggest system ever in Australia last year).

Tesla's battery cells are built in their Nevada GF... By Panasonic. Then Tesla assembles them into packs. Tesla at this point doesn't produce the actual cells for the automotive batteries. 

Quote

The way Tesla can still distinguish itself from other auto companies is if they actually come through with implementing fully autonomous driving before the others do and associated ride-sharing systems and the like. Musk has overpromised and underdelivered too many times to think they'll pull that off, though....

I agree that it can distinguish itself via implementing fully autonomous, but their whole "1M robotaxis" thing is daft IMHO. The robotaxi business model can make sense, but I don't think it will make sense in a Model 3 type vehicle, as I don't think people will lend out a $40-50K vehicle for Joe Schmoe to ride in. If I had a Model 3, I wouldn't dare trust it as a robotaxi, given the concern about what shape it might come back in. Most of the people who can afford a brand-new Model 3 are hopefully not stretching so far that the extra income from a robotaxi is worth the hassle, or else they shouldn't have bought such an expensive vehicle.

That said, if they figure out autonomous, they could use the Model 3 single motor powertrain, in a completely dumbed down and ruggedized body and interior, and they might have something there.  Suck as much cost out of it as possible, replaced with investment in durability, and you might be ok.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 06:43:01 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2019, 06:06:50 PM

But is Tesla supposed to be a car manufacturer of EV, or are they supposed to be a self-driving pilot program?  If I'm a Tesla customer for an EV today, will they care about me in 10 years?  5 years?  Do they even care about me now?  Or if I'm a stockholder or investor, am I supposed to be happy with a pivot away from the original idea and be satisfied that we're going in a different direction just because it's Musk's whim?

If I'm a shareholder, I'm less concerned about a company making a pivot than I am whether the pivot is going to be successful. Sometimes the market determines that a pivot is necessary. If they actually make it to market with real Level 5 autonomy before anyone else, ESPECIALLY if they do it without the cost penalty of LIDAR, they are gold. I'd sell my Flex in an instant for a Model Y if I no longer had to ever actively drive it. 

I.e. I think you guys all pretty well know who I'm working for at this point, and a few years ago we went through two major acquisitions. One of them took us into the semiconductor sector instead of just the data storage sector. Semis attract a MUCH different investor base than big boring data storage. I think there was a lot of shift in our institutional investor base because they didn't like the volatility [even if it has higher growth] of the semi sector. But as an employee, I think the acquisition was necessary. I had been considering job-hunting at the time because I didn't want to get stuck where I was and look back in 20 years and regret it. The acquisition gave me confidence that the company was doing the right thing to change and adjust to market conditions. At this point any job-hunting would be for other reasons if I choose to go that route. 

My issue with Tesla is that I think their expectation of autonomy within 1-2 years is snake oil. If you're an investor and they make a profitable pivot, it's hard to be upset. If you're an investor [or potential investor] and they try to distract you with an unrealistic promise of a pivot, well, caveat emptor. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 30, 2019, 06:45:09 PM

I got a Survey Monkey survey the other day, and it was about the ethics of autonomous cars.  It hypothesized a situation in which an autonomous car had to choose between seriously injuring its passenger or seriously injuring two bicyclists.  How should it be programmed?  Who should make the decisions on how it should be programmed?  Should there be legal remedies for people who are injured as a result of the ethical programming of an autonomous car?  Things like that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 06:49:10 PM

But what about autonomous trolleys?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on July 30, 2019, 06:52:05 PM

One theory is that as autonomous cars and ride sharing services become popular, they end up as gateways to public transit--especially rail/longer haul mass transit.

The more humans stop driving cars, the fewer ethical dilemmas car programmers will have to sort out. And minimizing serious injury seems like a pretty obvious default.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 30, 2019, 06:55:36 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 30, 2019, 06:49:10 PM

But what about autonomous trolleys?

I see what you did there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 07:09:00 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on July 30, 2019, 06:52:05 PM

One theory is that as autonomous cars and ride sharing services become popular, they end up as gateways to public transit--especially rail/longer haul mass transit.

I disagree.

Fundamentally long haul mass transit is a tiny amount of passenger miles traveled. Right now it's a drive/bus/rail/air conundrum. Reduction of personal auto ownership will certainly increase the bus/rail/air component of long-haul travel, but it'll still be a tiny subset of total vehicle miles traveled. 

See here: https://www.bts.gov/content/us-vehicle-miles (https://www.bts.gov/content/us-vehicle-miles)

Long haul via transit today is <1% of total vehicle miles. I can't break out what percentage long-haul car transit exists, but if it's higher than 5% I'd be shocked. So even if it results in a HUGE increase to rail/long haul transit, that's not that big of a difference to total vehicle miles.

Short-distance transit will forever have its own problem, however. When you have to take 50-60 passengers (bus) or a few hundred passengers (light rail) from point A to point B, you need routes that are common to those passengers. Every 1000 feet of deviation from the pickup or dropoff points hurts your adoption of transit because that's distance that must be walked. What good is transit if it drops you off 1.2 miles from where you're going?

What autonomous cars and ride-hailing does is move us to a more transit-blind mindset, where people perhaps take buses or rail when it happens to be going where they want or use ride-hailing services when transit doesn't go where they want. I suspect that transit should end up cheaper per-mile than ride-hailing, because of network effects, so it would be a reason to use transit if it happens to go where you're headed.

Still, for too many people, the idea will be ride-hailing from home to a transit station, riding transit, then ride-hailing to the actual destination, and I think that in a GREAT many cases that will be both more costly and more time-consuming than just ride-hailing from home to destination. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2019, 07:10:23 PM

Apropos of the joke I made...

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/cyanideandhappiness/trial-by-trolley (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/cyanideandhappiness/trial-by-trolley)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2019, 07:25:28 AM

MARTA is $2.50 per ride, until you reach 65 ($1).  For us to get to the airport on Uber is about $24 with tip and tax.  To get to a MARTA station is probably mostly tip, call it $6.  So, it's cheaper but no Uber on the airport end.  And midday traffic .... not good often as not.

We've learned to drive in certain "holes" in the day, around 9-11 AM and 1-3 PM, or after 8 PM.

Autonomous Uber would be cheaper one supposes, no tip for one thing.  And I'd use it to get to a MARTA station if it was rainy etc.  The station is about a thousand meters.  We usually walk it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2019, 11:26:34 PM

saw this on FB so cornsider the source

A diesel generator for a car charging point.


(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/67807734_2270509306399885_8393983022721925120_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_oc=AQmkmIyjRYVBJ3KibJsKn0dybi2DjJfkQpsfwSJurye42y9FSYQgGN2WTou-vtPy8YQ&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=a0c36fc24051ff634c4cd3d23899c931&oe=5DA8A136)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 05, 2019, 07:57:12 AM

Funny, I thought those electric car charging stations were powered by "I'm saving the planet" happy thoughts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 05, 2019, 08:26:31 AM

Ya Ed Zachery 430,good find FF

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2019, 08:51:08 AM

some electricity is clean and/or green

most is not

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 05, 2019, 11:57:15 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2019, 11:26:34 PM

saw this on FB so cornsider the source

A diesel generator for a car charging point.


(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/67807734_2270509306399885_8393983022721925120_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_oc=AQmkmIyjRYVBJ3KibJsKn0dybi2DjJfkQpsfwSJurye42y9FSYQgGN2WTou-vtPy8YQ&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=a0c36fc24051ff634c4cd3d23899c931&oe=5DA8A136)

The promise of EVs isn't to *always* be better than gas today no matter what. We often see it published, for example, that if the grid in your area is powered by coal, your carbon footprint for an EV will actually be larger than it'd be for a small car burning unleaded. Neither side will debate that. The promise of EVs, though, is only partly about 2019. Mostly, it's about flexibility as our grid changes. Because a car that burns unleaded can never be powered by natural gas (still with a carbon footprint but smaller than unleaded) or (smaller yet) nuclear, geothermal, solar, wind, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 08, 2019, 10:34:36 PM

Could Rust Be a New Source of Renewable Energy? (https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a28555278/rust-electricity/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2019, 07:12:45 AM

Rust is kinda down the energy well, as they say.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2019, 08:57:20 PM

A puffy pink seaweed that can stop cows from burping out methane is being primed for mass farming by Australian researchers.

The particular seaweed species, called Asparagopsis, grows prolifically off the Queensland Coast, and was the only seaweed found to have the effect in a study five years ago led by CSIRO. Even a small amount of the seaweed in a cow’s diet was shown to reduce the animal’s gases by 99%.

Associate Professor Nick Paul, who is the leader of the Seaweed Research Group at the University of the Sunshine Coast (USC), said that if Australia could grow enough of the seaweed for every cow in the nation, the country could cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 10%.


https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/gamechanging-pink-seaweed-reduces-cow-emissions/ (https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/gamechanging-pink-seaweed-reduces-cow-emissions/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2019, 08:24:21 AM

I could imagine that aqua farming enough seaweed might disturb the oceanic ecosystem a good bit.

Lots of cows, lots of seaweed.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a28720252/french-solar-road-failure/?src=socialflowFBRAT&fbclid=IwAR1sxT2mdF_RHd4XJ75o62iMLZJBbaTtInMV-mAPTLbJMwTK4R3IHhc0618 (https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a28720252/french-solar-road-failure/?src=socialflowFBRAT&fbclid=IwAR1sxT2mdF_RHd4XJ75o62iMLZJBbaTtInMV-mAPTLbJMwTK4R3IHhc0618)

The solar road has a predictable end in France.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 17, 2019, 11:37:21 AM

I believe there's a new bovine vaccine (perhaps not commercially available yet but well along the pipeline) against the gut bacterial species responsible for cows churning cellulose into methane. It works! I watched a video recently. I had been concerned that this might affect cellulose digestion. That the cows might appear malnourished/smaller, etc. But the same-age adult cows seemed equal side-by-side to the unvaccinated guys (to my amateur eye).

My remaining question (still unanswered) is whether these vaccinated cows have less efficient digestive systems and might require more grazing space, which would be quite counterproductive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2019, 12:52:01 PM

Scientists have developed a large-scale economical method to extract hydrogen (H2) from oil sands (natural bitumen) and oil fields. This can be used to power hydrogen-powered vehicles, which are already marketed in some countries, as well as to generate electricity; hydrogen is regarded as an efficient transport fuel, similar to petrol and diesel, but with no pollution problems. The process can extract hydrogen from existing oil sands reservoirs, with huge existing supplies found in Canada and Venezuela. Interestingly, this process can be applied to mainstream oil fields, causing them to produce hydrogen instead of oil.

https://phys.org/news/2019-08-scientists-hydrogen-gas-oil-bitumen.html (https://phys.org/news/2019-08-scientists-hydrogen-gas-oil-bitumen.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2019, 01:02:16 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2019, 12:52:01 PM

Scientists have developed a large-scale economical method to extract hydrogen (H2) from oil sands (natural bitumen) and oil fields. This can be used to power hydrogen-powered vehicles, which are already marketed in some countries, as well as to generate electricity; hydrogen is regarded as an efficient transport fuel, similar to petrol and diesel, but with no pollution problems. The process can extract hydrogen from existing oil sands reservoirs, with huge existing supplies found in Canada and Venezuela. Interestingly, this process can be applied to mainstream oil fields, causing them to produce hydrogen instead of oil.

https://phys.org/news/2019-08-scientists-hydrogen-gas-oil-bitumen.html (https://phys.org/news/2019-08-scientists-hydrogen-gas-oil-bitumen.html)

What do you make about the explosion concerns? There have been a few recent high-profile explosions at Hydrogen fueling stations.

It seems to me that H2 is a great fuel. Easier and quicker to refuel than it is to charge, and doesn't require installing charging stations in the home (so better works for renters). So there's no range anxiety. And if we can get H2 in high quantities without HUGE environmental burden, it might be much more environmentally friendly than large-scale mining for battery metals.

But people tend to not like exploding ;-) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 01:15:55 PM

H2 is literally extracted from oil. It's beholden to carbon. Relative to EVs, it's an inferior technology for our vehicles' futures on many grounds:

• beholden to carbon
• makes cars into "safer" mini-Hindenburgs
• still requires refueling at stations ad infinitum; I suspect that will eventually feel archaic compared to refueling at home while asleep

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2019, 02:04:22 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 01:15:55 PM

H2 is literally extracted from oil. It's beholden to carbon. Relative to EVs, it's an inferior technology for our vehicles' futures on many grounds:

• beholden to carbon
• makes cars into "safer" mini-Hindenburgs
• still requires refueling at stations ad infinitum; I suspect that will eventually feel archaic compared to refueling at home while asleep

Whether it's electricity, or H2, or propane, or gasoline, or banana peels in a Mr. Fusion reactor, my autonomous car will be able to drive itself wherever it needs, to refuel, either whilst I work, or sleep, or attend a college football game.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2019, 02:22:51 PM

The researchers have found that injecting oxygen into the fields raises the temperature and liberates H2, which can then be separated from other gases via specialist filters. Hydrogen is not pre-existing in the reservoirs, but pumping oxygen means that the reaction to form hydrogen (https://phys.org/tags/hydrogen/) can take place.

I am confused.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 21, 2019, 02:26:22 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 21, 2019, 02:04:22 PM

Whether it's electricity, or H2, or propane, or gasoline, or banana peels in a Mr. Fusion reactor, my autonomous car will be able to drive itself wherever it needs, to refuel, either whilst I work, or sleep, or attend a college football game.

Little early to be getting into the Tito's isn't it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 02:28:00 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 21, 2019, 02:04:22 PM

Whether it's electricity, or H2, or propane, or gasoline, or banana peels in a Mr. Fusion reactor, my autonomous car will be able to drive itself wherever it needs, to refuel, either whilst I work, or sleep, or attend a college football game.

That is fair. I'd still argue that not needing to expend energy (travel to a station) to get energy (refuel) is superior, but you are generally right. Even then, you are correct on a practical grounds (that you might not care what your car is doing), not whether what your car is doing will feel archaic. I still think refueling stations are dated to become archaic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 02:32:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2019, 02:22:51 PM

The researchers have found that injecting oxygen into the fields raises the temperature and liberates H2, which can then be separated from other gases via specialist filters. Hydrogen is not pre-existing in the reservoirs, but pumping oxygen means that the reaction to form hydrogen (https://phys.org/tags/hydrogen/) can take place.

I am confused.

Are you confused in a semantic way -- getting hung up on the definition of "forming hydrogen" and whether they are talking about creating the atoms or creating the gas?

Aside from those semantics (and beside the fact that I disprefer the technology), what they are saying fits my intuition. "Hydrogen can be stripped from hydrocarbons and converted to H2 in an oxygen-dependent manner."

But the confusion that endures for me is that doping this region with oxygen sounds a lot like burning. And I'd worry that might form and then immediately expend the H2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2019, 02:41:42 PM

Well, normally, injecting oxygen into proximity with a hydrocarbon under pressure and perhaps with heat either does nothing, or causes combustion and creation of CO2.

Oxygen oddly enough generally is an oxidant.  To convert a hydrocarbon to hydrogen (and carbon) I think you need a reducing agent of some sort.  So, what's the empirical equation here?  CHn + O2 -->  CO2 plus H2?


Energetically, that is "down hill" obviously.  Ergo, I'm confused.  Maybe I could read their patent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2019, 02:43:23 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 21, 2019, 02:26:22 PM

Little early to be getting into the Tito's isn't it?

it's well after noon in the Central time zone for Utee and I.

what in the wide wide world of sports are you waiting for?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2019, 02:45:09 PM

I found a few patents and applications assigned to Proton Tech, but none of them relate to this.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2019, 03:14:45 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 02:28:00 PM

That is fair. I'd still argue that not needing to expend energy (travel to a station) to get energy (refuel) is superior, but you are generally right. Even then, you are correct on a practical grounds (that you might not care what your car is doing), not whether what your car is doing will feel archaic. I still think refueling stations are dated to become archaic.

Oh yeah, I completely agree.  Just having a little fun.

I think that once the autonomous car becomes ubiquitous, they'll simply be fleet vehicles with 3rd party ownership-- at least in urban environments.  So however it refuels, it will do it on "its" time rather than on mine.  It will arrive at my door fully fueled and capable of meeting the parameters of travel to whatever destination I've indicated.

Still gotta figure out how they're going to put my boat in the water for me, though!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2019, 03:15:23 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2019, 02:43:23 PM

it's well after noon in the Central time zone for Utee and I.

what in the wide wide world of sports are you waiting for?

And this!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 21, 2019, 03:18:15 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2019, 02:43:23 PM

it's well after noon in the Central time zone for Utee and I.

what in the wide wide world of sports are you waiting for?

End of the work day then Happy Hour

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 03:39:18 PM

I don't know whether this counts as this thread's kind of "environment" but whatever 🙃.

Prairie dog bubonic plague is in the news again (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=22&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj2iNPh2ZTkAhWzHjQIHYTcCIwQFjAVegQIBxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fnation%2F2019%2F08%2F19%2Fcolorado-wildlife-refuge-still-affected-prairie-dogs-plague%2F2049377001%2F&usg=AOvVaw1f6VspOZzMix2IiFStenyz). These pdogs in Colorado been a reservoir for it for years. And now local parks and concerts are closing. People like to get worked up about stuff like this (and Ebola and-and...), but it's worth reminding that the risks are low and that what is happening is nothing new. Bubonic plague has had a measurable incidence in the U.S. for years -- something like 7-10 annual cases. And unlike the 1300s in Europe, antibiotics have since been discovered and industrialized. We might have some reason to pay more attention because this part of Colorado is becoming more desertified, meaning that dry air is casting sediment farther. I suppose that ups the risk of the bubonic becoming pneumonic (a more severe variety of plague), but streptomycin, doxycycline, and cipro will defeat insufflated Yersinia pestis just as well as Yersinia that accesses the body in other ways. (...) Unless of course it become antibiotic resistant. Though that's more of a problem for the future than for now😬.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2019, 07:06:26 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 01:15:55 PM

H2 is literally extracted from oil. It's beholden to carbon. Relative to EVs, it's an inferior technology for our vehicles' futures on many grounds:

• beholden to carbon
• makes cars into "safer" mini-Hindenburgs
• still requires refueling at stations ad infinitum; I suspect that will eventually feel archaic compared to refueling at home while asleep

When the H2 is extracted from oil, does it release CO2 into the atmosphere? Or is the carbon kept in some non-burned, non-emitting form?

Never mind, the story says it outright:

Quote

Grant Strem, CEO of Proton Technologies which is commercializing the process says "This technique can draw up huge quantities of hydrogen while leaving the carbon in the ground. When working at production level, we anticipate we will be able to use the existing infrastructure and distribution chains to produce H2 for between 10 and 50 cents per kilo. This means it potentially costs a fraction of gasoline for equivalent output". This compares with current H2 production costs of around $2/kilo. Around 5% of the H2 produced then powers the oxygen production plant, so the system more than pays for itself.

Now, if this is true, it produces hydrogen in a way that doesn't generate a carbon footprint.

So tarring it with the "beholden to carbon" brush is just a pejorative. 

Remember, batteries don't just materialize out of thin air, . What's worse? Pulling H2 from oilfields without generating new CO2, or mining lithium? I don't know, but you can't just dismiss this as "beholden to carbon"...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2019, 07:54:47 PM

I looked for their patents, or applications, found squat on this technique.  I know how to find patents, or used to anyway.

I'm saying it's interesting but doesn't make sense, to me, so I await something more substantive.  And credible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 10:46:04 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 21, 2019, 07:06:26 PM

Now, if this is true, it produces hydrogen in a way that doesn't generate a carbon footprint.

So tarring it with the "beholden to carbon" brush is just a pejorative.

Remember, batteries don't just materialize out of thin air, . What's worse? Pulling H2 from oilfields without generating new CO2, or mining lithium? I don't know, but you can't just dismiss this as "beholden to carbon"...

If true, you're right, it may be possible for H2 to become unbeholden to carbon. For now, let me reword to say that classic techniques for producing H2 have always been beholden to carbon. It's not yet a pejorative mischaracterization to say it's always been that way. I did gloss over the possibility of this changing, however. That feels like a comfortable bet, but you are right that it changing is probably not strictly impossible.

As for the mining, the same applies here as it applies to computer chips and even aluminum ion antiperspirants, it's all terrible for the environment. We should be careful here, too, however. This kind of mining is a different kind of destructive. It's primarily destructive to waterways and not the atmosphere/climate story. And like you I have no idea how to compare them. Meanwhile, toxic mining also seems necessary for perhaps all highway-safe automobiles (EVs, H2Vs, internal combustives), though I'm also not prepared to speak on the varying extents of toxic mining necessary for each and would not be surprised if you found that data and could support the idea that EVs are meaningfully worse. Our conversation needs that info, too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 22, 2019, 01:03:01 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 10:46:04 PM

If true, you're right, it may be possible for H2 to become unbeholden to carbon. For now, let me reword to say that classic techniques for producing H2 have always been beholden to carbon. It's not yet a pejorative mischaracterization to say it's always been that way. I did gloss over the possibility of this changing, however. That feels like a comfortable bet, but you are right that it changing is probably not strictly impossible.

As for the mining, the same applies here as it applies to computer chips and even aluminum ion antiperspirants, it's all terrible for the environment. We should be careful here, too, however. This kind of mining is a different kind of destructive. It's primarily destructive to waterways and not the atmosphere/climate story. And like you I have no idea how to compare them. Meanwhile, toxic mining also seems necessary for perhaps all highway-safe automobiles (EVs, H2Vs, internal combustives), though I'm also not prepared to speak on the varying extents of toxic mining necessary for each and would not be surprised if you found that data and could support the idea that EVs are meaningfully worse. Our conversation needs that info, too.

Agreed.

Bear in mind that I have no particular dog in this fight. I'm not sure that I'm fully onboard that the effects of CO2 are anywhere near as dire as some people predict, but I am in full agreement that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that we should be trying to find alternative solutions to burning hydrocarbons. Especially because even beyond CO2, there are other pollutants. 

But as I've said before, to some extent you need to come at these things from a cost-benefit analysis, rather than picking the technology you want to win and assuming it will just scale. I've said before that I'm in data storage, and although there are huge predictions that HDDs will go the way of the dodo to be replaced by SSD, they don't factor in the capital intensiveness of the NAND industry and that it's only capable of economically producing a small portion of the world's total bit storage capability. It doesn't even matter that it's superior in performance--you simply cannot economically produce nearly enough bits to replace it wholesale. And as the world's bit demand goes up exponentially, NAND flash would have to grow at a much faster exponential to overtake HDD entirely, and I don't see that happening for decades. 

I personally worry that battery EVs are similar. They can be far superior in performance, and in pollution [as we improve our electricity generation]. But if the world's ability to economically mine lithium, or cobalt, or other metals used in the batteries doesn't come close to the world's annual automotive demand, it doesn't matter one bit if they're "better". You can't build and sell something if you don't have raw materials. Now, maybe that worry is unfounded. Maybe we can easily mine more than enough, and improve battery recycling to re-use what's already been mined, etc. I don't know because it's not my field of expertise, unlike data storage. 

The advantage of H2 is that hydrogen is plentiful. The disadvantage [as you point out] is that it's not plentiful in H2 form, so to get it we must separate it from another source, which can be difficult. Oh, and that whole "exploding" thing. But if we can find a way to economically extract hydrogen in a non-polluting way, that doesn't increase carbon footprint, and we can figure out how to do it without causing explosions, it may tip the cost-benefit scale from battery EVs to hydrogen fuel cell EVs. But again, that is also not my field of expertise, and I'm not going to say I know which one is going to win as I don't have the requisite knowledge. Hence why I'm postulating, not declaring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 22, 2019, 02:35:48 PM

There are many good points here. For what it's worth, my mind is more open about H2V's pending that evolutionary leap in fuel production. As for the ore bottlenecks, there are precious few answers to that, and that naturally leads to outlandish follow-ups: How far are we from mining ore for Earth elsewhere in the solar system, at the asteroid belt, e.g.? A century - more?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on August 22, 2019, 02:49:17 PM

There's a lot of R&D being done for other energy storage technologies and chemistries. If Lithium becomes more expensive, those technologies will inevitably become commercially viable, and some are already expected to in the next few years. In fact, for large-scale longer-duration energy storage systems, there's a promising company called Energy Vault that has an unusual but fairly simple and practical system of stacking and unstacking cement bricks. It's basically the same concept as a pumped hydro system but with bricks instead of water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 22, 2019, 03:42:25 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on August 22, 2019, 02:49:17 PM

There's a lot of R&D being done for other energy storage technologies and chemistries. If Lithium becomes more expensive, those technologies will inevitably become commercially viable, and some are already expected to in the next few years. In fact, for large-scale longer-duration energy storage systems, there's a promising company called Energy Vault that has an unusual but fairly simple and practical system of stacking and unstacking cement bricks. It's basically the same concept as a pumped hydro system but with bricks instead of water.

I get that, but I'm also a skeptic. As mentioned, I'm in data storage. NAND flash is *not* a perfect storage media. Pretty much ever since I've been in storage [over a decade], I've been hearing about all the technologies that are "just around the corner" that will displace NAND... Memristors, spin torque memory, phase change memory, etc... All of these have properties that would not only make them better than NAND, but cheaper... Or so their proponents state. Yet none of them are out of the laboratory.

The problem is that commercial viability is a hard thing.

I'd state that at the current state of the tech, lithium batteries are marginally commercially viable for automotive applications. If you want enough in a car to have decent range and performance (Tesla), it's incredibly heavy and expensive. If you skimp on the batteries to reduce cost, you end up with a poor-performing econobox with limited range and still costs $30K (Leaf). Right now the future of electric cars relies on storage chemistry reducing costs to become competitive with ICEV. Because right now, a large part of the value proposition for BEV relative to ICEV includes subsidies, tax credits, etc to artificially reduce the costs. 

So if lithium batteries get MORE expensive, well then those other storage technologies may become commercially viable relative to lithium BEVs, but will still remain a small niche market relative to ICEVs, which is the dominant incumbent for transport.

Which isn't to say that I don't think there's anything better than Lithium out there. But they all need to continue innovation and cost reduction if any of them are going to overtake ICEV. I think it's going to happen, especially as oil becomes harder [and more expensive] to extract, but I've seen too many people wave their hands and say "well the alternatives will become commercially viable because of R&D spending" when it's usually a LOT harder than it looks. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on August 28, 2019, 01:37:31 AM

Glad to see this is happening. It's too late for Inslee, but it will be interesting hear the candidates' plans: https://www.axios.com/cnn-climate-change-town-hall-2020-presidential-0c74d5b1-3491-4298-840a-7dc4389c7078.html (https://www.axios.com/cnn-climate-change-town-hall-2020-presidential-0c74d5b1-3491-4298-840a-7dc4389c7078.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on August 28, 2019, 09:29:16 AM

Got to experience one of the most intense thunderstorms I've ever seen on Monday night, from the safety of a Holiday Inn in Oklahoma City. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2019, 08:49:02 AM

interesting site

https://shameplane.com/?fromCity=London&fromCode=LHR&toCity=New%20York&toCode=JFK&roundtrip=true&typeofseat=3 (https://shameplane.com/?fromCity=London&fromCode=LHR&toCity=New York&toCode=JFK&roundtrip=true&typeofseat=3)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on August 29, 2019, 03:07:13 PM

Flight-shaming is a thing in Europe. It will definitely be much more difficult to decarbonize air travel (though short-distance trips like between the Hawaiian islands will likely be electrified) unless/until hydrogen is proven to be safe and economic and/or some other denser energy-storage mechanism is commercialized. Of course, for intracontinental travel, hopefully the Hyperloop or something similar will be feasible at some point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2019, 03:32:04 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on August 29, 2019, 03:07:13 PM

Flight-shaming is a thing in Europe. It will definitely be much more difficult to decarbonize air travel (though short-distance trips like between the Hawaiian islands will likely be electrified) unless/until hydrogen is proven to be safe and economic and/or some other denser energy-storage mechanism is commercialized. Of course, for intracontinental travel, hopefully the Hyperloop or something similar will be feasible at some point.

What percentage of global emissions are from air flight?  And then what percentage are from  terrestrial vehicles?  Just wondering what impact it has to the overall effects.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on August 29, 2019, 05:36:21 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 29, 2019, 03:32:04 PM

What percentage of global emissions are from air flight?  And then what percentage are from  terrestrial vehicles?  Just wondering what impact it has to the overall effects.

Estimates vary, but on a per passenger per mile basis, flights are substantially more emissions-intensive, but certainly there are much greater emissions from cars because there are so many of them, they definitely have greater total emissions, which is why it makes much more sense to focus on making EVs cost-effective while deploying a lot of renewables to get off coal and diminish the oil & gas industry (on that note, Newsy, which is a non-partisan TV news site, recently did a very good documentary called "Blowout" on the rise of oil & gas, particularly in Texas and how the US is exporting much of that fuel to Asia).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 29, 2019, 05:40:38 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 29, 2019, 03:32:04 PM

What percentage of global emissions are from air flight?  And then what percentage are from  terrestrial vehicles?  Just wondering what impact it has to the overall effects.

Feel free to find a reference you believe is more reliable, but (interested in finding something fast that passed the first sniff test) I came up with this. It references the US:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2015/09/evolving-climate-math-of-flying-vs-driving/

(https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0915_EnergyUseByModeChart_FAA_680.png)

Flight stuff is medium sized in raw numbers. I suspect the "per user" rate is #1, however.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 30, 2019, 09:40:06 AM

Thanks.

Yes, I understand per-passenger/per-mile will be much higher for air travel, seems pretty self-explanatory.  But passengers are also paying a substantial premium for that air travel, and the excise taxes charged by the government could be (not sure if they are but they could be) applied toward environmental issues if so desired.

As you surmised, my point is that focusing on terrestrial emissions will be a much bigger bang for the buck, if limiting emissions is the true goal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 30, 2019, 09:50:59 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on August 29, 2019, 05:36:21 PM

Estimates vary, but on a per passenger per mile basis, flights are substantially more emissions-intensive, but certainly there are much greater emissions from cars because there are so many of them, they definitely have greater total emissions, which is why it makes much more sense to focus on making EVs cost-effective while deploying a lot of renewables to get off coal and diminish the oil & gas industry (on that note, Newsy, which is a non-partisan TV news site, recently did a very good documentary called "Blowout" on the rise of oil & gas, particularly in Texas and how the US is exporting much of that fuel to Asia).

Thanks!  I'll check it out.

I have several friends in oil and gas, they struggled to find work in the 90s after the huge USA oil bust of the late 80s.  That "bust" was local/regional in effect of course, as lower fuel prices were better overall for the general public and national economy.  But when oil prices became so low, it was no longer cost effective to pump here in Texico, and many of my friends ended up moving overseas to Saudi and other places.

The recent increase in oil prices (going back several years) has been great for those folks, most of them are back in Texas and offers and salaries are through the roof.  As you say, some of the production is for domestic use but much of it is being exported to APAC.  

I have one friend whose family owns oil wells in South Texas.  He and his family were living large in the 80s but when the bust hit, they shut down all production.  He ultimately became a Methodist minister-- in fact he's the pastor who performed my wedding-- and he's always been easy-come easy-go when it comes to money. He's always lived modestly and doesn't need material things to make him happy. However, with the recent boom, his family wells are pumping again, and he's now a mega-millionaire.  These days I almost never catch him in Austin, he's spent most of the past 5 years touring Europe and Asia with his college-graduate daughters who are also models (one went to Ole Miss and the other went to Auburn).  Life's been good to him so far... :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2019, 09:53:10 AM

shame on all you folks traveling the world

looking at you Cincy

;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2019, 09:55:52 AM

I was in Colorado this week and we were taking about how much the area is booming. One of the locals said they're constantly seeing Texas license plates because of a huge influx of oil & gas folks. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 30, 2019, 09:59:15 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 30, 2019, 09:55:52 AM

I was in Colorado this week and we were taking about how much the area is booming. One of the locals said they're constantly seeing Texas license plates because of a huge influx of oil & gas folks.

Yeah the natives really hate us up there.  I mean, lots of people hate arrogant Texicans, but Colorado folks REALLY hate us.

One spring break down in South Padre, I was chatting with this girl who went to Colorado State and was down with some friends for spring break at the beach.  She went on and on about how much she hated Texans coming up to Colorado and infesting her ski mountains.   She failed to see the irony.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2019, 10:34:34 AM

Don't worry, Coloradoans hate California transplants more (just like everyone else). They hate that Californians are fleeing California policies and then get to Colorado and start voting for California policies. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on August 30, 2019, 11:02:02 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 30, 2019, 10:34:34 AM

Don't worry, Coloradoans hate California transplants more (just like everyone else). They hate that Californians are fleeing California policies and then get to Colorado and start voting for California policies.

Same here in Arizona

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2019, 11:47:22 AM

I only hate Iowans.  They drive slowly in the fast lane.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2019, 12:17:33 PM

hah, better not go north and drive with the squareheads in Minnesoooota

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2019, 12:23:28 PM

I aim to stay South, but the damn Yankees followed me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2019, 12:24:20 PM

Was chatting with an Auburn fan as we Waited for the hotel shuttle to SFO.  He is cautiously optimistic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2019, 04:00:24 PM

Florida is going to be New York and Chicago at some point. East Coast = New York. West Coast = Chicago. Not sure where I will turn to when it happens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on August 30, 2019, 04:04:46 PM

Y'all can have Florida. I'll cling to earthquake country as long as I can, though I wouldn't mind spending more time in the Midwest in the Fall when I can dial work back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2019, 05:06:45 PM

Florida is going to be nice for us in the winter. Kenosha is going to remain fantastic in the summer. The only problem will be that my tires will have to touch Illinois roads to get back and forth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2019, 08:52:50 PM

won't be too bad, you're conditioned

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 30, 2019, 10:33:18 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 30, 2019, 09:59:15 AM

Yeah the natives really hate us up there.  I mean, lots of people hate arrogant Texicans, but Colorado folks REALLY hate us. . . .

STILL?

It was that way when I went on my first ski trip over spring break 1976.  It seems that they would have acquired some immunity by now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2019, 10:41:06 PM

it was still very strong in the 80s when I was skiing there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 30, 2019, 10:54:40 PM

Thought I read that during the Late Unpleasntness in the 1860s units from both states had some bloody clashes being far out in the western theater

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 30, 2019, 10:55:37 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 30, 2019, 10:41:06 PM

it was still very strong in the 80s when I was skiing there

Brewskiing counts?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2019, 08:53:48 AM

i don't hate anyone.

Oh wait, except Sooners.  Sorry C-Dub.  I recognize it flows both ways. ;)


You make a good point about Coloradans hating California more than Texico these days.  We get a lot of California transplants here, too, and people seem to "hate" them in general, but in reality, face to face, everyone I've met from California has been plenty warm and friendly.  Also, they tend to accept and embrace the local culture, I can't tell you how many transplants have told me how they fall in love with Centex BBQ. Many of them also seem to feel the need to purchase cowboy boots and pickup trucks.  Can't say I blame them though, cowboy boots and pickup trucks are awesome.

The only place I've ever encountered "bad" Californians is in LA, but that's more a factor of it being a large and impersonal city.  I've felt the same way about people in NYC, Paris, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2019, 01:26:31 PM

Mid 50's before midnight,30 right now going down to high teens overnite.Might get some ice fishing in this winter after all

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 10, 2019, 01:32:51 PM

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614801/we-need-to-halve-emissions-by-2030-they-rose-iagain-i-in-2019/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614801/we-need-to-halve-emissions-by-2030-they-rose-iagain-i-in-2019/)

I don't see a realistic practicable path forward here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 10, 2019, 02:03:44 PM

There's actually been a lot of good news on the clean energy front this past fall, at the state and local levels, of course.

The way the 2020 Democratic primary and election goes will obviously be a big deal, though, because regardless of what the states do, what happens at the federal level is more important to influence what other countries will do, particularly China and India. Most of the Democratic candidates appear to have at least decent energy policies, though.

As is already happening on some places, the focus should be on getting rid of coal plants, stop building gas plants, and primarily deploy renewables, while electrifying transportation and other sectors to a significant extent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 10, 2019, 02:07:08 PM

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614728/why-the-electric-car-revolution-may-take-a-lot-longer-than-expected/?utm_medium=tr_social&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2WC5uw7wmlrr2Zoh58BFT8hYXdbQIkh6G6CkCdIyAUmlc3JbeccHj3pnk#Echobox=1575653530 (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614728/why-the-electric-car-revolution-may-take-a-lot-longer-than-expected/?utm_medium=tr_social&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2WC5uw7wmlrr2Zoh58BFT8hYXdbQIkh6G6CkCdIyAUmlc3JbeccHj3pnk#Echobox=1575653530)

There may be good news, but it simply isn't happening fast enough, not even close.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2019, 02:29:14 PM

Gotta try though for future folks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 10, 2019, 02:39:35 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on December 10, 2019, 02:03:44 PM

 to influence what other countries will do, particularly China and India. 

good luck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 10, 2019, 02:46:18 PM

I'd like to see at least a tough outline of a plan that included:

1.  How much it would cost over X time period.
2.  What it would generate or replace.
3.  What new to the world inventions might be needed.
4.  How much impact the plan would have on reducing climate change.

Most of what I see out there are promises to do something later.  I have yet to see any practicable approaches that make more than a slight difference we couldn't even measure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 10, 2019, 06:03:15 PM

I roughed in a electric car charger in the garage of my new house, its gonna happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on December 10, 2019, 09:16:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 10, 2019, 02:07:08 PM

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614728/why-the-electric-car-revolution-may-take-a-lot-longer-than-expected/?utm_medium=tr_social&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2WC5uw7wmlrr2Zoh58BFT8hYXdbQIkh6G6CkCdIyAUmlc3JbeccHj3pnk#Echobox=1575653530 (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614728/why-the-electric-car-revolution-may-take-a-lot-longer-than-expected/?utm_medium=tr_social&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2WC5uw7wmlrr2Zoh58BFT8hYXdbQIkh6G6CkCdIyAUmlc3JbeccHj3pnk#Echobox=1575653530)

There may be good news, but it simply isn't happening fast enough, not even close.

Europe and China are going to drive it. Forget America.


China is the largest autos market in the world. Much bigger than the US. And that gap is only going to continue to widen as China overtakes the US as the largest economy in the world. We're basically already at 2020. Chinese have basically put a ban on the gas car past 2030. After 2030, no more gas cars will be sold in the largest auto market in the entire world. Huge chunk of GM's and Ford's business is in China. Don't think it's a coicidence that GM announced 20 new electric models for China literally the day after China said they were banning gas cars after 2030. Chinese owned Volvo already quit making gas cars starting this year. They only make hybrids and all-electrics now.


China killed the gas car. They will be a thing of the past in just 20 years. That's a blink of an eye.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2019, 09:51:47 PM

Doubt it,USA/Canada will keep making them - electric cars in these winters.How about Plow trucks?It will eventually happen but gas vehicles won't be off the roads in 20 years.I'd take that bet hinging of course on whether I'd be around to collect - or you to pay me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on December 10, 2019, 10:12:25 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on December 10, 2019, 09:51:47 PM

Doubt it,USA?canada will keep making them - electric cars in these winters.How about Plow trucks?It will eventually happen but gas vehicles won't be off the roads in 20 years.I'd take that bet hinging of course on whether I'd be around to collect - or you to pay me

Canada is a little pipsqueak insignificant nothing country. US autos will have no choice but to follow suite with Europe and China. They sell more cars in those markets than they do in the US. Doesn't make sense for them to keep making gas cars in one market and no gas cars in the other larger markets.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2019, 10:45:09 PM

But US law makers can make them or force them to if the need persists.We still get tons of snow,which electric cars and plows are a ways out in dealing with

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2019, 10:45:57 PM

Chilly here in Colorado Springs tonight... 

Probably not chilly per Colorado Springs standards, but a lot more so than in SoCal!

Had to use the ice scraper on the windshield this morning. It's been a LONG time since I've done that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2019, 10:52:22 PM

I think a lot of progress is being made on electric car infrastructure. Tesla was first to the game, but until other players jumped in en masse, it was going to be niche. We're seeing that come around now.

It's still not where I'd like it to be, but I also don't need to worry about replacing any of our vehicles for ~6-7 more years at this point. At that time my Flex will be likely showing it's age, and as the kids go off to school I won't need such a large vehicle. By then I think the market for BEVs will be mature enough that the charging infrastructure will make BEVs convenient for potentially everything but long-haul travel. And given the charging rates that these cars are getting, maybe even "good enough" for long-haul. And if not, my wife's RX will probably go ~3 years beyond the Flex before it's time to replace it, so it would be useful for the long-haul stuff.

We're getting there. I'm sure politicians will claim that they were forward-thinking and their interventions made it happen when it happens, but it's all [as always] just a matter of economics. When the market and the technology and the price align, switches happen. Until then, it's nearly impossible to "force" it to happen even with incentives.

 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 10, 2019, 11:10:28 PM

There are going to be applications that don't lend themselves to pure electric.  Hybrids are a great solution for many of those applications.  And they'll continue to be a great solution for a long, long time.  The internal combustion engine might not be King in 20 years, but it'll be far from dead.

That'll be true in China and Europe as well. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2019, 11:31:17 PM

When i bought my car last year, I had the notion that it'd be the last regular-engine car I'd ever buy.  Not assuming or hoping necessarily, just assume it to be the case.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2019, 06:29:32 AM

Depends on how long you keep your cars. I got mine in 2016, but the last one I had I got in 1997. So, who knows what I'll get in 2035. Maybe nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SuperMario on December 11, 2019, 06:57:18 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2019, 06:29:32 AM

Depends on how long you keep your cars. I got mine in 2016, but the last one I had I got in 1997. So, who knows what I'll get in 2035. Maybe nothing.

I’m always jealous of individuals that can pull this off. Unfortunately I like fast cars too much, which isn’t a great investment strategy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 11, 2019, 07:09:28 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2019, 11:31:17 PM

When i bought my car last year, I had the notion that it'd be the last regular-engine car I'd ever buy.  Not assuming or hoping necessarily, just assume it to be the case.

(https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/928189911379866255/643799529FBCA71DF6AB5B7D49CE2F61888BA4F1/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 07:26:17 AM

In 1980, I was reading multiple articles about running out of oil.  I figured by 2000, there would be almost no gasoline or Diesel powered vehicles with reciprocating internal combustion engines on the market.  Today, the "problem" for some is an over supply of oil.  Gas is cheaper today than in 1980 inflation adjusted pricing (slightly).

The main "polluters" today are coal fired plants which are being shut down fairly quickly because NG has become the fuel of choice for making electricity.  Coal is pretty dirty all the way from mining to burning to scrubbing to dealing with the fly ash waste.  NG produces about 2/3rds as much CO2 per kWhr and has much lower levels of regular pollutants.

The increase in renewables is largely replacing nuclear power in many countries, so the net on CO2 production is near zero.  India and China are growing rapidly so their need for additional electricity and transportation is high.  The advanced countries have already used carbon based fuels to advance their economics, so I and C want a similar kind of delay before they do much.  The problem is I and C are very significant generators of CO2 and that isn't dropping.

I see no practicable solutions here, so I'd spend SOME effort on figuring out how to deal with the future PROJECTED climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2019, 07:47:24 AM

Quote from: SuperMario on December 11, 2019, 06:57:18 AM

I’m always jealous of individuals that can pull this off. Unfortunately I like fast cars too much, which isn’t a great investment strategy.

I like fast cars too. I'm just getting older and don't push them like I used to. Although I did get up to 110 last week, on accident.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2019, 08:00:21 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2019, 07:47:24 AM

I like fast cars too. I'm just getting older and don't push them like I used to. Although I did get up to 110 last week, on accident.

Yeah, the new pickup is so quick and so smooth, I accidentally had it over 100 on a road trip recently.  Also accidentally had it up to 85 towing one time.

My i s c & a aggie wife loves the engine and ride so much in the twin turbo F150, she wants the new Explorer Sport with the same engine.  She says she'd rather have that, than the BMW 4-series with the retractable hardtop.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2019, 08:05:21 AM

Oh, but yeah, this is the climate change thread so we probably shouldn't talk about racing fast cars and stuff... ;)

If it's any consolation, my engine is named "Ecoboost" which means it's good for the environment.


(Although in reality I find it difficult to keep my foot out of the gas pedal and feel the turbos wind up, so on average I think I'm getting worse mileage than the V8 versions)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 08:06:51 AM

The GTI is pretty quick but at least you know when you're going 85.  It has this interesting gauge that shows your ground speed.

The CTS was almost too quiet at speed though it had a similar gauge.

I love how even pretty basic cars today are as quick as they are 0-60 compared with many "muscle cars" of the 70s.

The 70s were bad times for cars in general.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 08:08:36 AM

The dynos of turbo engines often are fascinating (to me) as they show flat torque from roughly 1800 to 4000 RPM.  One can feel the difference in driving engines are similar hp if one is boosted and the other is not but has larger displacement.  And the mpgs may not be much different in the real world, but turbos can "trick" the fuel economy tests.

(https://i.imgur.com/uS5rCO3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2019, 08:15:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 08:06:51 AM

The GTI is pretty quick but at least you know when you're going 85.  It has this interesting gauge that shows your ground speed.

The CTS was almost too quiet at speed though it had a similar gauge.

I love how even pretty basic cars today are as quick as they are 0-60 compared with many "muscle cars" of the 70s.

The 70s were bad times for cars in general.

The early 80s had some real clunkers too, from a performance perspective.

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 08:08:36 AM

The dynos of turbo engines often are fascinating (to me) as they show flat torque from roughly 1800 to 4000 RPM.  One can feel the difference in driving engines are similar hp if one is boosted and the other is not but has larger displacement.  And the mpgs may not be much different in the real world, but turbos can "trick" the fuel economy tests.

Well I CAN drive the turbocharged 3.5L V6 "appropriately" and get better mileage than the V8s, it's just not as much fun.  And that flat torque response through much of the RPM range is why I love it so much for towing.

The electronic gauge packages are cool, I can set it to show  fuel economy in mpg and watch in realtime to see how my driving inputs affect the fuel economy.  But it's more to set it to watch the Turbo Boost and see how much is being applied when I hit the gas. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 08:26:48 AM

The GTI will get 40+ mpg on the freeway at 78 mph, which I'm happy with, but they recommend premium for it.  I'm pretty sure it would be fine with regular high quality fuel though.  I've put in midgrade a few times.

It's nice to have a clutch again, for me, even driving in town.  I prefer it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 11, 2019, 08:45:00 AM

EVs will outsell non-EVs in the next few years and become the predominant vehicle by 2030 or so. The question is when autonomous technology becomes accepted and inevitably make car ownership obsolete. They're testing them in numerous cities, but there's still a lot that needs to happen on that front.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2019, 08:46:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2019, 07:47:24 AM

I'm just getting older and don't push them like I used to. Although I did get up to 110 last week, on accident.

How in the hell does that happen?Did a half gallon bottle of single malt Scotch roll off the seat and fall onto the accelerator?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2019, 08:48:04 AM

Ha!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 11, 2019, 10:03:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 08:08:36 AM

The dynos of turbo engines often are fascinating (to me) as they show flat torque from roughly 1800 to 4000 RPM.  One can feel the difference in driving engines are similar hp if one is boosted and the other is not but has larger displacement.  And the mpgs may not be much different in the real world, but turbos can "trick" the fuel economy tests.

Agreed. HP is an easy-to-game metric. It's just torque multiplied by RPM, divided by a constant. If you can manipulate the torque curve such that it's peaky at higher RPM, or if you can increase the redline of the engine to allow it to rev higher, you can often get HP numbers that look gaudy but don't really reflect the driving experience. 

Hence you get cars like the old Honda S2000, which put out 240 hp but only if you revved the crap out of it [it had a 9000 rpm redline]. Or 600cc 4cyl sportbikes that make over 100hp, but all that HP occurs in the 12-14K RPM range. 

Those cars/bikes are simply not all that fun to drive/ride in around-town scenarios. They're often quite gutless at low RPM, and thus to feel that power, you have to drive them in ways that don't really make sense in normal traffic [and attract the attention of LEOs]...

Even my Ford Flex puts out 285hp, which doesn't sound paltry [even in a car of its heft], but it's got variable valve timing and you can feel the difference in how it pulls when you hit the RPM that the VVT kicks in. The Ecoboost equivalent puts out 365hp, which doesn't sound like a huge difference than 285, but I'm sure the low-RPM torque is MUCH higher than the non-boosted engine.

I think a lot of people are entranced by pure HP numbers, without realizing that high HP doesn't make the driving experience particularly great unless it's paired with low-end torque as well. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 10:17:00 AM

EVs outsell gas cars in Norway today because of incentives.  I doubt that happens in the US by 2030.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on December 11, 2019, 11:16:12 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 10:17:00 AM

EVs outsell gas cars in Norway today because of incentives.  I doubt that happens in the US by 2030.

Norway is a sweet ass country. One of my favorite places I've ever been to. Oslo is super expensive though. Ridiculous. A taxi from the airport to my hotel which was maybe 1.5 miles away cost me about $65.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on December 11, 2019, 11:19:48 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on December 11, 2019, 08:45:00 AM

EVs will outsell non-EVs in the next few years and become the predominant vehicle by 2030 or so. The question is when autonomous technology becomes accepted and inevitably make car ownership obsolete. They're testing them in numerous cities, but there's still a lot that needs to happen on that front.

China is going to be the driving force for electrification in cars. That deal Tesla made to build a Gigafactory in China was gigantic for the company. Especially considering it was the first-ever foreign company that was allowed into China without having to set-up a state-backed joint venture & share its technology. That alone should tell you how serious the Chinese are when it comes to the electrification of cars. GM/Ford/Boeing- all the biggest American companies had to set-up JV's and share their technology with China in order to build factories and manufacture in China.

Speaking of autonomous driving- another area where Tesla has a HUGE leg up on the competition- and it ain't close. That self-driving chip they built in-house is the most advanced of it's kind in the world- and ontop of that they have BILLIONS of real-world driving miles of data for use to "teach" their driving computers. Google's "miles" are worthless computer simulations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2019, 12:31:23 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on December 11, 2019, 08:46:09 AM

How in the hell does that happen?Did a half gallon bottle of single malt Scotch roll off the seat and fall onto the accelerator?

Early morning, not many people on the road, and I found myself there without trying. I backed her down to 80 in short order. It felt just the same.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 11, 2019, 01:12:49 PM

I guess I'll bring my Boss 302 Mustang along to be a lawn ornament when I go to the Old Folks' Home.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 02:56:51 PM

https://electrek.co/2018/10/04/super-cruise-versus-tesla-autopilot/ (https://electrek.co/2018/10/04/super-cruise-versus-tesla-autopilot/)

I generally don't trust Consumer Reports, but this suggests that Caddy's Supercruise is competitive.

https://jalopnik.com/one-of-the-best-parts-of-cadillacs-super-cruise-has-a-h-1833724088 (https://jalopnik.com/one-of-the-best-parts-of-cadillacs-super-cruise-has-a-h-1833724088)

Reasonable people disagree, but for my money, Cadillac’s Super Cruise system is the best semi-autonomous system in the game: better than Tesla’s, better than Volvo’s, better than Nissan’s. But one thing that sets it apart—its system for making sure the driver’s paying attention—apparently doesn’t work great under full sunlight.

I was in a CT6 with this activated but it was on a freeway on SF.  It was impressive, but that wasn't very challenging as an environment.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/29/tesla-autopilot-vs-cadillac-super-cruise-guess-which-wins-video/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/29/tesla-autopilot-vs-cadillac-super-cruise-guess-which-wins-video/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 03:06:04 PM

They gotta get the price of EVs down and the range up and charging times lower to be generally accepted I think, and even when that is reality, a lot of folks won't believe it.

Maybe battery tech will improve faster than I expect.  Maybe not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on December 11, 2019, 04:18:36 PM

I like to drive but traffic in Florida is so bad. hopefully, I'll start using high-speed rail a lot more often.

Virgin Trains USA high-speed rail station just got approved in downtown Boca Raton. Their station was just approved in Aventura near the Aventura Mall about a month or two ago. Construction on both stations will start early 2020 and the stations will be completed by 2020. Their stations in downtown West Palm Beach, downtown Ft. Lauderdale, and downtown Miami have been operational since 2018.

They are expanding the line from WPB to Orlando airport, that's set to open 2022. They are already negotiating with DisneyWorld and Tampa to build stations there. I haven't taken the train yet, but I'm planning to take it down to Miami this weekend. I've heard only great things about it so far.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2019, 06:19:48 PM

I think the Florida train should be called "semi-high speed" if you view HSR as something running 200 mph or more.

It might be the optimum between cost and performance relative to the California effort.  If cities are within say 200 miles, 125 mph should be adequate if there is sufficient intracity transport at both ends.  Uber/Lyft might be the solution to the intracity issue.

https://www.railwayage.com/passenger/high-performance/california-hsr-seven-deadly-mistakes/ (https://www.railwayage.com/passenger/high-performance/california-hsr-seven-deadly-mistakes/)

I've read about some very tentative plans for "MSR" (M- medium) between Atlanta and Charlotte.  One issue is that flying here is so cheap, relatively, it's tough to compete.  I read that France may shut down flight between French cities like Marseilles and Paris and only have the TGV, in part because the TGV loses so much money each year.  The government put in the capital obviously and still can't operate it at break even without even trying to pay it all back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on December 11, 2019, 10:26:20 PM

Quote

I think the Florida train should be called "semi-high speed" if you view HSR as something running 200 mph or more.

It might be the optimum between cost and performance relative to the California effort.  If cities are within say 200 miles, 125 mph should be adequate if there is sufficient intracity transport at both ends.  Uber/Lyft might be the solution to the intracity issue.

https://www.railwayage.com/passenger/high-performance/california-hsr-seven-deadly-mistakes/ (https://www.railwayage.com/passenger/high-performance/california-hsr-seven-deadly-mistakes/)

I've read about some very tentative plans for "MSR" (M- medium) between Atlanta and Charlotte.  One issue is that flying here is so cheap, relatively, it's tough to compete.  I read that France may shut down flight between French cities like Marseilles and Paris and only have the TGV, in part because the TGV loses so much money each year.  The government put in the capital obviously and still can't operate it at break even without even trying to pay it all back.

The HSR's in Europe don't run at 200 mph or more. Max they hit is usually 180ish and that's only in rural areas. I think that 200+ mph number is China/Japan.

Virgina Trains USA in South Florida average around 80 mph but that's largely because that area is just way too densely populated. Between permanent residents, the roughly 1 million rich fks from all over the world that live here during the season, and all the damn tourists you've got to be talking about close to 10 million people packed in a small corridor mainly on the coast from Palm Beach down to Miami. Very little empty spaces to pick up steam.

When the track is extended from WPB to Orlando- that's butt fk egypt- ain't nothing but farmland, swamps, and crackers that entire stretch- that train should hit speeds of 140 mph I think. Still not quite Europe speeds but trust me- it beats the hell out of driving.

The rail system they are building in South Florida is amazing. I'll be taking it all the time from Boca to Miami when it's open. Absolutely beats the living shit out of driving. South Florida traffic is some of the worst in the country. Should only take 40 minutes to drive to Miami from Boca. Sometimes it can take hours because of traffic and horrific accidents.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2019, 10:44:03 PM

I love riding the TGV in France.  I believe on a couple of the lines, they get up to 200mph max speed, but that's not ubiquitous on all routes and it's certainly a max speed and not an average for any significant stretch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 11, 2019, 11:05:58 PM

I still think HSR is a boondoggle of massive proportions.

They can't charge enough to make money. Outside of very few routes, there's no way to get the ridership high enough to make a profit at reasonable ticket prices, so it becomes a plaything of the well-to-do*.

Beyond that, as soon as you get beyond ~200 miles, flying is better than HSR. Flying is point-to-point at that distance [i.e. there are rarely layovers or indirect flights], whereas HSR to justify its existence must stop at many stations along the route, slowing it down. And in that distance range, driving may be less pleasant than HSR but it's a damn sight cheaper, particularly if you're not traveling alone.

Rail can make sense in certain places, but I think people have such an infatuation with it that it causes them to support rail projects well above and beyond the places where it makes economic sense.

-* Well I suggest "plaything of the well-to-do" is a bad thing, for the well-to-do that's a feature rather than a bug. Urban light rail systems have a tendency to take enormous amounts of money away from urban bus systems, causing bus routes to be cancelled so rich suburbanites can commute in to work via heavily-subsidized fares. The well-to-do wouldn't be caught dead on a bus. So urban light rail basically caters to the well-to-do while royally screwing the poor who can't afford to commute by car, as bus routes are cancelled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2019, 11:21:24 PM

For these reasons and others, I vote down every light rail project that comes to the polls.

Because if we're going to do rail, it better be heavy rail.

And if we're going to do heavy rail, it better be:



(https://www.shortlist.com/media/imager/201905/21265-posts.article_md.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 11, 2019, 11:30:54 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on December 11, 2019, 11:05:58 PM

I still think HSR is a boondoggle of massive proportions.

They can't charge enough to make money. Outside of very few routes, there's no way to get the ridership high enough to make a profit at reasonable ticket prices, so it becomes a plaything of the well-to-do*.

Beyond that, as soon as you get beyond ~200 miles, flying is better than HSR. Flying is point-to-point at that distance [i.e. there are rarely layovers or indirect flights], whereas HSR to justify its existence must stop at many stations along the route, slowing it down. And in that distance range, driving may be less pleasant than HSR but it's a damn sight cheaper, particularly if you're not traveling alone.

Rail can make sense in certain places, but I think people have such an infatuation with it that it causes them to support rail projects well above and beyond the places where it makes economic sense.

-* Well I suggest "plaything of the well-to-do" is a bad thing, for the well-to-do that's a feature rather than a bug. Urban light rail systems have a tendency to take enormous amounts of money away from urban bus systems, causing bus routes to be cancelled so rich suburbanites can commute in to work via heavily-subsidized fares. The well-to-do wouldn't be caught dead on a bus. So urban light rail basically caters to the well-to-do while royally screwing the poor who can't afford to commute by car, as bus routes are cancelled.

To update what used to be said about electric cars, passenger rail service is the next great thing in efficient travel, and it always will be.  Most of us have ridden on a some sort of great passenger rail service somewhere, and we imagine how great it would be for our state or region to have such service.  What we seldom consider is opportunity cost.  For the most part, passenger rail service can come nowhere near paying for itself, so there's always the issue of what public services we are giving up in order to subsidize passenger rail service.

AMTRAK is the great example.  It provides mediocre, only semi-reliable, service for high fares and still requires massive subsidies.

I say this as a railfan.  I would love for great long-distance passenger trains to be available all over the country, as they were during the 15-or-so years after World War II.  I would love it if subways and/or elevated trains were feasible for every major urban area in America.  But once the federal government stopped using railroads to carry the mail, passenger trains became money-losers, and they're still that way today.  And the urban light rail services . . .  well, that's already been covered.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 11, 2019, 11:32:18 PM

Fare revenue (depending on the market) covers between 15% on the low side in some markets to as high as about 45% of the rail's operating costs.  It isn't a panacea in that many markets IMO, particularly less dense metropolitan areas.   There is a vanity angle to Light Rail (vs a bus) as you note which people would really not like to be confronted about as it makes proponents quite uncomfortable.   As a teen/young adult  I used to be a regular user of 'Freeway Flyers'  they were optimal for suburban commuters and folks outside the immediate urban areas, in many ways, they were a pliable service.    Dozens of park and ride lots around the market,  regular dedicated schedules, and over the years, the market could adjust to where people were moving, choosing to live, and where the needs could be met.   Run a fixed light trail and you're betting on a lot of permanence as far as where you think people want to go today, tomorrow and in the future.

I know they are running alt fuel/e buses at this stage.   Bus service suffers with the intro of Light Rail, and in most markets bus service use dwarfs the ridership rates of rail, not even close.   All for the installation of technology that isn't all that different from 1890s street cars.

I realize I'm only commenting on LR not HSR.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 11, 2019, 11:41:08 PM

My last hard rail train experience was a Amtrak ride a few years ago with my family from Seattle to Portland.  I think it was between 90-120 minutes behind schedule.   So many right of way stops.   Had I been solo, I would've flown, or rented a car,  it was one of those fun family experiences, we went without a car the bulk of the trip, but not at all reliable.    I remember looking at taking Amtrak between Indy and Milwaukee, after we lost NS flight service,  why freaking bother?   1/2 the available schedule they assign you to a bus, and all told the 270 mile distance takes about 7 hours.  I can get as far as Eau Claire in my car in that time.    Hiawatha Line between MKE/Chicago is still a good/worthy train route.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 07:09:01 AM

MARTA is supposed to build a fair bit of Light Rail here, someday, to connect with the "heavy rail" that exists.  The cost of HR apparently is prohibitive, though they may build a few more miles if Gwinnett county ever joins.  The baseball park moved to Cobb county which has no MARTA, there is an express bus from near us out to the park (which is one of the worst traffic areas in town).  Light rail of course is slower and takes it's power from overhead, while heavy rail takes power from a line near the tracks.  Those cars can go 70 mph I'm told, but I've been parallel to one while driving and the go more like 45-50.  

I like the concept of express buses that move on grade separated bridges out of urban areas but still can travel on regular streets.  The buses here all use NG so they are relatively clean, but I see a lot of them go by empty, or with one person riding midday.

One problem we have is that GA has small counties, 159 of them, and they are relatively independent.  So, the Atlanta metro area encompasses 15-20 counties depending on who is counting, each with its own county government and operations, it's very inefficient.  MARTA someday is supposed to morph into the ATL which at least will cover all the counties, but not with rail, just buses mostly.  Americans don't much like buses it seems, though the hypercheap intercity buses are fairly popular, because they are cheap.

I'm seeing a lot of development, finally, around MARTA stations in town, residential and office, simply because of proximity to the stations.  I live in a part of town with cranes everywhere.  It seems to me these things "pay off" eventually as a spur to construction and more taxes.  The same is true with the Beltline, which is just walking/biking trails today, though SOMEDAY it is supposed to be light rail also, at least in part.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 08:48:47 AM

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)

(https://i.imgur.com/VIdEp6u.png)

Does anyone here think these trends are going to attenuate, or lessen, any time soon?  I don't mean wishful thinking, or hopes and dreams, but in the real world.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 12, 2019, 10:49:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 08:48:47 AM

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)

(https://i.imgur.com/VIdEp6u.png)

Does anyone here think these trends are going to attenuate, or lessen, any time soon?  I don't mean wishful thinking, or hopes and dreams, but in the real world.

Well, is anything being done to reduce or eliminate the production/drivers of atmospheric CO2?  If not, then the trend will continue in that direction...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 12:13:55 PM

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data)

(https://i.imgur.com/qFjKe2X.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 12:14:19 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/0YRc7bF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2019, 01:46:44 PM

so, we can stop beating up on India

concentrate on China and the USA and the other 30%

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 12, 2019, 02:02:05 PM

That was from 2014, and India's share has definitely increased since then (they have the most polluted cities in the world for a reason).

Even if you have a fatalist mindset about this, the solutions are still good for society for other reasons. I've probably written this all before, but I'll do it again. Wind and solar are cheap now and consequently electrifying transportation and other sectors that currently use fossil fuels is becoming cost-effective, not to mention that it would reduce air pollution. Wind, solar, and energy efficiency also have many more jobs than the rest of the energy sector, from blue-collar ones to office jobs.

The most effective solutions are listed in Carbon Drawdown (https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank (https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank)). Most of them are fairly straightforward (though not necessarily easy). As you can see, some of the biggest ones don't directly involve the energy sector but social issues and food production / consumption.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 12, 2019, 02:13:35 PM

As for intercity train and regional transit systems....

Amtrak is profitable on its most heavily used lines (particularly DC to Boston), which it the tracks to, whereas in many other parts of the country, freight trains have the right of way. I don't see that changing, so there isn't much reason to expand their system any further. I am more hopeful that one day the hyperloop technology will become commercialized, but I want to see a pilot project first....

As for inner-city and regional transit systems, I do think they're still worth investing in. For example, DC's Metro system is in the middle of building a line past Tysons (a huge suburban office park, essentially) to Dulles Airport. Maryland is about to start a project to connect their inner suburbs of DC (ie. Bethesda, Silver Spring, College Park) together and integrate it with the Metro system. There have also been a few stations built on existing lines with potential for additional ones. The inevitable concern though is what happens when autonomous vehicles become available. That could actually potentially help transit systems but just easily (if not more likely admittedly) make them obsolete. Either way, hopefully it wouldn't take too long to draw a conclusion...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 02:15:30 PM

If the solutions are cheap, then they will happen on their own, and we needn't worry about government programs to facilitate anything.

And yes, I look at the data and am fatalistic, and negative.  I see no plans, no real solutions offered, just meetings, pandering, and pointless goals.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 01:18:05 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/gm-expects-cadillac-to-be-majority-if-not-all-evs-by-2030.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/gm-expects-cadillac-to-be-majority-if-not-all-evs-by-2030.html)

Interesting, of course, their plans will ultimately reflect what their consumers want.  Do domestic luxury buyers want electric vehicles, or will they by 2030 in large numbers?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2019, 01:22:17 PM

I will buy a nice 2030 Cadillac in 2040 to keep my V8

since that's in 20 years and I'm currently 57, that could easily be my last vehicle

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2019, 01:23:32 PM

the 40,000 2020 C8 Corvettes have all been ordered

6.2 V8 power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 01:32:10 PM

It's a bit odd that a sports car would still use the pushrod architecture.  There are some packaging advantages.  They are even using variable valve timing on them.

Just about every car engine is DOHC now.  And that 6.2 L is going to be used in the redesigned Escalade as well.  Cadillac invested in designing its own "Blackwing" V8 and then barely uses it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 13, 2019, 03:42:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 01:18:05 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/gm-expects-cadillac-to-be-majority-if-not-all-evs-by-2030.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/gm-expects-cadillac-to-be-majority-if-not-all-evs-by-2030.html)

Interesting, of course, their plans will ultimately reflect what their consumers want.  Do domestic luxury buyers want electric vehicles, or will they by 2030 in large numbers?

I do think there's a compelling psychological advantage to charging at home at night. I certainly don't love planning my around-town trips knowing "oh, I have to stop for gas." If every time I leave the house my "tank" is full, I only have to even think about "filling up" for long trips. 

Beyond that, I do think the instant torque of electric motors is satisfying to the luxury car buyer. You don't have to do all that much to make them fast, and AWD is a lot easier when you can just drop a motor at each axle and not need a single drivetrain for the 4 wheels. And I think the typical Cadillac buyer would rather have a well-insulated serene driving experience than listen to a big honkin' V8 in order to develop that power.

Right now IMHO it's too expensive, such that the Tesla Model 3 is considered a "luxury" car only because it's priced in line with small sedans from BMW, Merc, Lexus, Acura, etc. While I think the Model S and X are luxury vehicles, the starting point for both is WAY up there price-wise. Very little else about it is all that luxurious. Get the cost of batteries down, though, and I could absolutely see Cadillac being an all-electric brand. 

I know I've been bearish on Tesla, and given a lot of things about the company, I think their future is uncertain. That said, IMHO with recent success they seem to be moving from a company that burns money to a company that could actually make money if they didn't have so much debt, which would make their future go from "disappear" to "bankruptcy, restructure, and come out stronger on the other side by shedding their debt." But all that said, I think there are many advantages to the electric drivetrain if some of the infrastructure continues to be built out and matures.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2019, 04:14:03 PM

charging all the vehicles is GREAT, but we also need to develope the source of this electricity from wind and solar and renewable

opened my electric bill from Mid-American energy last night, they are very proud that just over 50% of all electricity supplied to their Iowa customers was from renewable sources.

I understand that 100% of V8s don't use renewable and if we could suddenly go all electric and it was 50% better that would be a great thing, not a good thing, but ramping up green electricity before the vehicles are sucking from the grid would be important

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 05:08:39 PM

Wind and Solar account for about 8% of the grid today, and might hit 15-30% by 2030, maybe.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/42864.pdf (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/42864.pdf)

That would largely shut down coal power plants, which would be a something, but we'd still have mostly NG for power production.  The good news is we might hit close to 50% no carbon by then counting existing and building nuclear power plants, of more don't get shut down early.  At least NG produces less CO2 than coal.`

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38252 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38252)

On an annual basis, natural gas surpassed coal in 2016 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392) as the fuel most used to generate electricity in the United States. In the AEO2019 Reference case, natural gas remains the leading source of electricity generation through 2050. In 2018, natural gas accounted for 34% of total electricity generation, and EIA projects its share to grow to 40% by 2032 and then remain between 39% and 40% throughout 2050. Electricity generation shares from coal and nuclear gradually decline as coal and nuclear become less cost competitive compared with natural gas and renewables. Renewables generation surpasses nuclear by 2020 and surpasses coal by the mid-2020s as tax credits and lower capital costs drive solar photovoltaic and wind capacity additions.

I think that premium auto customers would like EVs if done properly and not overly expensive.  The upcharge for an $80,000 car to go EV is a lower percentage than for a $30,000 car.  Cadillac sells more cars in China than in the US, and China may push this in ways the US can't.  The other factor here is that in the US Caddy makes money on its SUVs and loses money on its cars.  It should be an interesting decade, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 13, 2019, 07:37:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 01:32:10 PM

It's a bit odd that a sports car would still use the pushrod architecture.  There are some packaging advantages.  They are even using variable valve timing on them.

Just about every car engine is DOHC now.  And that 6.2 L is going to be used in the redesigned Escalade as well.  Cadillac invested in designing its own "Blackwing" V8 and then barely uses it.

"Pushrod," just like "live axle," makes me think of the 1950s.  And not in a good way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 08:01:45 PM

The DOHC  designs today are "standard" in just about every car.  That Corvette would stay with the old small block architecture is interesting.  The main advantage is a lower COG.  They certainly get a lot of power out of it today, 495 hp from 6.2 L.  They could get more hp with DOHC, but not more torque.

The new higher level Corvettes will be interesting.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 08:04:30 PM

https://www.wired.com/story/the-next-nuclear-plants-will-be-small-svelte-and-safer/?fbclid=IwAR2rfsj433L_IxfpiTZHLBnQNTkynBpXACtG9BSt8FU6lur2_grS9h7eGo0&mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook (https://www.wired.com/story/the-next-nuclear-plants-will-be-small-svelte-and-safer/?fbclid=IwAR2rfsj433L_IxfpiTZHLBnQNTkynBpXACtG9BSt8FU6lur2_grS9h7eGo0&mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2019, 08:11:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 08:01:45 PM

The DOHC  designs today are "standard" in just about every car.  That Corvette would stay with the old small block architecture is interesting.  The main advantage is a lower COG.  They certainly get a lot of power out of it today, 495 hp from 6.2 L.  They could get more hp with DOHC, but not more torque.

The new higher level Corvettes will be interesting. 

low COG and torque are keys when trying to turn quicker lap times

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 08:16:12 PM

And tires, tires make a huge difference on the track today, huge.  Of course, most "quasi super cars" today sport Michelin Pilot Sport Twos or the like and that ground is level.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2019, 08:27:10 PM

and since Brembo will make brakes for anyone with $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 08:30:46 PM

Brembo had a guy at the Caddy track sessions I attended in Austin.  He clearly said they were tire limited, the could stop anything.  The CTS-V uses iron rotors and he said they were fine, cheaper than ceramic, and a lot easier to redo.  The Michelin  guy was fascinating, to me.  Those tires were everything in that car.

Well, the 640 hp was some part of it.  That was pretty fun.  The redid the brakes and put on new tired after every daily session.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 13, 2019, 09:42:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 13, 2019, 08:01:45 PM

The DOHC  designs today are "standard" in just about every car.  That Corvette would stay with the old small block architecture is interesting.  The main advantage is a lower COG.  They certainly get a lot of power out of it today, 495 hp from 6.2 L.  They could get more hp with DOHC, but not more torque.

The new higher level Corvettes will be interesting.

My DOHC 5.0-liter puts out 444 hp.
Torque is more important for everything other than top speed, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 13, 2019, 11:47:04 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on December 13, 2019, 09:42:25 PM

Torque is more important for everything other than top speed, of course.

Exactly. If you're racing, HP is very important. Because you're staying up in the powerband 100%. 

Around town, torque is key.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2019, 08:21:33 AM

The torque curve is key, as well as the max.  Horsepower = torque x 5200 RPM, in the usual units.  The fatter the curve, the peppier the car will feel (until you really wring it out like an S2000).  Our last car had an option of a V6 with more hp and less torque or the 2.0 L turbo with 295 ft lbs of torque but lower hp (by about 30).  The 4 cylinder drove better in normal driving conditions and would accelerate from 70 mph easily without downshifting (unless  you nailed it).  With light or moderate throttle it simply felt faster, and was.  The V6 was technically a tenth faster to 60 - on throttle on the floor of course,

As noted, EVs have very fat and broad torque "curves".  They really are flat from 0 RPM up to whatever.  Of course, on a track you will deplete your battery capacity at an epic rate.  I wonder how long a Tesla would last being driven flat out on a track.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 14, 2019, 10:58:01 AM

There's Formula E racing, which is for open-wheel electric cars.  I wonder if they change out batteries during the race.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2019, 11:27:41 AM

what do they do for exhaust noise?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2019, 11:30:46 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on December 14, 2019, 10:58:01 AM

There's Formula E racing, which is for open-wheel electric cars.  I wonder if they change out batteries during the race.

Most motorcycle races are basically one tank of gas long, and don't go long enough to require pit stops for tires either. I wonder what the distance is for Formula E and if they even need more range than a single charge provides.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2019, 02:12:43 PM

The race itself is set to 45 minutes plus one lap. Until season four, drivers made one mandatory pit stop to change cars. The two pit crew helped the driver to change seat belts and, for safety reasons, there was a minimum required time for pit stops which differed from track to track (except for the last 10 races of season four).^{[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E#cite_note-12)} Tyre changes, unless caused by a puncture or damage, were not permitted during the pit stop. It is normally unnecessary due to the tyres being all-weather tyre sets. In race mode the maximum power is restricted to 200 kW (268 bhp).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2019, 03:38:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 14, 2019, 02:12:43 PM

The race itself is set to 45 minutes plus one lap. Until season four, drivers made one mandatory pit stop to change cars. The two pit crew helped the driver to change seat belts and, for safety reasons, there was a minimum required time for pit stops which differed from track to track (except for the last 10 races of season four).^{[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E#cite_note-12)} Tyre changes, unless caused by a puncture or damage, were not permitted during the pit stop. It is normally unnecessary due to the tyres being all-weather tyre sets. In race mode the maximum power is restricted to 200 kW (268 bhp).

Ahh, I see. So yeah, it's very similar to [most] motorcycle races. The race lengths are designed to avoid recharging.

Some motorcycle races are set for pit stops for refueling / tire changes. The AMA Superbike series has all but one of their races restricted to a length that the bikes can do on one tank of gas and one set of tires, but they also run the Daytona 200, which usually requires ~2-3 pit stops for refueling and tire changes. And of course there's also endurance racing which does the same.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2019, 04:02:55 PM

It would be neat to have some race where only the size and weight of the vehicle was controlled (except for safety issues).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 14, 2019, 06:11:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 14, 2019, 04:02:55 PM

It would be neat to have some race where only the size and weight of the vehicle was controlled (except for safety issues). 

Would probably promote cutting-edge technology.

OTOH, it seems that gigadollars would rule and that driver skill would not be very important.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2019, 06:40:49 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 14, 2019, 04:02:55 PM

It would be neat to have some race where only the size and weight of the vehicle was controlled (except for safety issues). 

Quote from: CWSooner on December 14, 2019, 06:11:12 PM

Would probably promote cutting-edge technology.

OTOH, it seems that gigadollars would rule and that driver skill would not be very important.

I dunno... That's pretty much Formula 1, and driver skill is important.

But yeah, it's totally an arms race. As the old joke goes:

Q. How do you make a million dollars in auto racing? 
A. Well, first you start with ten million... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 14, 2019, 08:43:33 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on December 14, 2019, 06:40:49 PM

I dunno... That's pretty much Formula 1, and driver skill is important.

But yeah, it's totally an arms race. As the old joke goes:

Q. How do you make a million dollars in auto racing?
A. Well, first you start with ten million...

Formula One definitely consumes gigadollars, but it's regulated for a lot more than just size and weight.
Per the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge:

Quote

Formula One cars are the fastest regulated road-course racing cars in the world, owing to very high cornering speeds achieved through the generation of large amounts of aerodynamic downforce. The cars underwent major changes in 2017, allowing wider front and rear wings, and wider tyres, resulting in peak cornering forces near 6.5 lateral g and top speeds of up to approximately 350 km/h (215 mph). As of 2019 the hybrid engines are limited in performance to a maximum of 15,000 rpm, the cars are very dependent on electronics and aerodynamics, suspension and tyres. Traction control and other driving aids have been banned since 2008.

6.5 lateral g is incredible.
I have heard the joke a little differently.
Q: How do you make a small fortune in auto racing?
A: First you start with a large fortune.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2019, 09:03:32 AM

Can Am racing was sort of like that back in the day.  I think it would push technology development.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2019, 10:35:46 AM

https://judithcurry.com/2019/10/16/climate-limits-and-timelines/ (https://judithcurry.com/2019/10/16/climate-limits-and-timelines/)

I find her comments on the topic interesting.  She's not a wholesale "denier" of course, but she thinks the climate is simply too complex to model with any accuracy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 15, 2019, 12:46:08 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 15, 2019, 09:03:32 AM

Can Am racing was sort of like that back in the day.  I think it would push technology development.

Yeah, Can-Am racing was wild and wooly.  It wasn't very competitive, but the cars were big, loud and fast.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2019, 12:52:24 PM

The 2J Chapparal was interesting.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/motorsports/a32350/jim-hall-chaparral-2j-history/ (https://www.roadandtrack.com/motorsports/a32350/jim-hall-chaparral-2j-history/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2019, 12:53:36 PM

https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/02/Curry-2017.pdf (https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/02/Curry-2017.pdf)

Back on topic, if anyone is interested, models for the lay person, by this author who, um, controversial, a rabble rouser, neither a denier and certainly not an advocate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 15, 2019, 04:07:09 PM

Hustled back to town today and got that snowblower fired up and ready for morning.  Never fun burning off that residual fuel mix on that first start.   Pretty broad band of 4 to 8 inches along that I 70 corridor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2019, 04:10:17 PM

I recall those days.  We live on a flag lot with three other homes and one common drive.  A retired neighbor would clear it off until he moved, and then I was the retired neighbor.  The blower had a goofy transmission that wouldn't get out of first gear, I had it into pieces trying to replace everything.  A neighbor told me he gave it away and they just drive on the ice now.  The transmissions on these things are idiotic, but cheap.

The engine worked fine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 15, 2019, 04:28:38 PM

I have a pretty basic single stage Toro which runs on a mixture.   Its probably 15 years old now and can handle a foot of snow wo much fuss.   Its seen a couple 100 inch + winters but nothing that substantial the past decade since moving to Indy.  I don't mess w shoveling once it's a 2inch+ snowfall, no need to mess w back and shoulders.  Too old for that.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2019, 04:35:58 PM

Ours was a cheap two stage MTD snow blower.  It was pretty powerful when it worked.  I had to push it with manpower a lot of the time.  A couple of the driveways had a bit of slope to them.  And the city would of course plow a large dam out at the street of mostly ice and salt.  Thanks.

I saw zero flakes last winter, and it is snows, it's not my problem now anyway.  Lowes doesn't even carry them around here.

The ice storms are another story, you can't even walk when they happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2019, 04:46:19 PM

I used my leafblower on the driveway a few minutes ago

light and fluffy, about 2 inches

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 20, 2019, 04:06:46 PM

IBM Research Created a New Battery That Outperforms Lithium-Ion—No Problematic Heavy Metals Required (https://gizmodo.com/ibm-research-created-a-new-battery-that-outperforms-lit-1840535845)

Now, I'm generally one to be skeptical of lab-based claims. After all, I've been hearing reports of how HDDs are "dead" ever since I joined the HDD industry, and the thing that supposedly killed them, SSDs, were going to be dead due to storage-class memory, or memristors, or phase change memory, etc... All these promising technologies that are "just around the corner", once they figure out how to mass-produce, how to scale, how to be reliable, etc. Tape "died" 30 years ago, and tape is still going strong!

But as it relates to battery electric vehicles, the battery high material cost is only one of the concerns--high environmental cost of all the mining necessary to scale to a significant part of the worldwide vehicle fleet is rarely discussed. This could be one potential work-around for that. If IBM has truly determined a way to use more plentiful or easily-extracted materials in battery construction, it could bring down prices and allow the BEV market to scale up more quickly. 

So although I'm skeptical, I post it here in case anyone is interested.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 20, 2019, 04:10:04 PM

The thing I usually see about "Great New Battery" is a sales pitch.  They don't provide any negative information about the device, and that USUALLY is present, we just don't know it without delving into it further.  I've mentioned before how I was part of a rather large "biodegradable polymer" effort when I was working, interesting stuff, and they ALL have one or more key critical issues that means they won't solve whatever problem they are expected to solve in the real world.  There were a number of promising candidates hyped out the wazzo, and basically 25 years later, nothing has caught on beyond isolated specialty feel good applications, and in most of those they might as well use regular plastic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 20, 2019, 04:12:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 20, 2019, 04:10:04 PM

The thing I usually see about "Great New Battery" is a sales pitch.  They don't provide any negative information about the device, and that USUALLY is present, we just don't know it without delving into it further.  I've mentioned before how I was part of a rather large "biodegradable polymer" effort when I was working, interesting stuff, and they ALL have one or more key critical issues that means they won't solve whatever problem they are expected to solve in the real world.  There were a number of promising candidates hyped out the wazzo, and basically 25 years later, nothing has caught on beyond isolated specialty feel good applications, and in most of those they might as well use regular plastic.

One thing I find interesting about this is that it's not some little fly-by-night company with a press release hoping to drum up interest and get acquired by a larger firm so their executives can walk away with a couple mil. It's IBM... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 20, 2019, 04:16:10 PM

"These results are estimations based on how the battery has performed in the lab so far, but IBM Research is teaming up with companies like Mercedes-Benz Research and Development to further explore this technology, so it will be quite a few years before you’re able to feel a little less guilty about your smartphone addiction."

It reads like a PR puff piece to me, I hope I'm wrong, and then towards the end they insert this about how it will be "quite a few years".  That CLEARLY means this has some major technical issue yet to be resolved.  Big companies love PR puff pieces, and it could be the guys in the lab HATE this kind of release.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 20, 2019, 06:54:00 PM

If this battery technology lives up to the hype (or anything close to it), it would be dramatically accelerate the electrification of the energy sector and deployment of battery systems throughout the transportation sector and the grid.... Whether it's this one, and/or some other type of battery chemistry / technology, Lithium-Ion has inherent limitations and risks due to requiring heavy metals.

Of course, longer duration storage technologies are increasingly important, too.... This one was recently reported about and is rather intriguing: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/first-us-long-duration-liquid-air-storage-project-planned-vermont/569384/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/first-us-long-duration-liquid-air-storage-project-planned-vermont/569384/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 20, 2019, 07:51:03 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on December 20, 2019, 06:54:00 PM

If this battery technology lives up to the hype (or anything close to it), it would be dramatically accelerate the electrification of the energy sector and deployment of battery systems throughout the transportation sector and the grid.... Whether it's this one, and/or some other type of battery chemistry / technology, Lithium-Ion has inherent limitations and risks due to requiring heavy metals.

Of course, longer duration storage technologies are increasingly important, too.... This one was recently reported about and is rather intriguing: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/first-us-long-duration-liquid-air-storage-project-planned-vermont/569384/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/first-us-long-duration-liquid-air-storage-project-planned-vermont/569384/)

Exactly.

From what I've heard, one of the biggest problems with solar/wind is that you basically need to have NG gas plants on idle at all times to cover variation in power generation or power demand. I've actually heard this is one of the issues with nuclear as well, because it's designed to run at full load 100%, so it doesn't do well with varying demand. Going to nuclear tends to cause NG plants to proliferate.

Energy storage is a huge answer to either. I'm not sure we get anywhere near as close to "green" electricity as we hype without it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 22, 2019, 08:15:57 AM

A gas turbine can start from cold in minutes, they don't idle.  That is their key advantage.

They are jet engines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 22, 2019, 10:49:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 22, 2019, 08:15:57 AM

A gas turbine can start from cold in minutes, they don't idle.  That is their key advantage.

They are jet engines.

Some can. Others can't.

Same thing with batteries. Different chemistries have different uses. Some are highly responsive with lower discharge rates to help keep the grid balanced. Others have larger capacities with larger discharge rates but less responsiveness (pumped hydro being at the extreme end here).

Regardless, different storage technologies can match different gas generators to do whatever they do for the grid, and they're increasingly (if not already, depending on the circumstances) cost-effective.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2019, 12:15:39 PM

Good points. However the issue still stands that wind/solar currently need backup capability for times of low generation or variable load. As I understand, nuclear doesn't have variability in power generation, but doesn't deal with variable load well either. So either way you need fast-start backup capacity, and NG is the preferred for that at least these days--which means CO2 emissions.

Energy storage is a huge problem to solve, then. If we want green energy without requiring a lot of CO2-dependent backup, we need to figure out good, cost-effective, and environmentally-friendly energy storage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 22, 2019, 12:39:08 PM

....And that's why there's a lot of research and development in energy storage right now, including liquid air, compressed air, various gravity-based systems like EnergyVault, alternative battery chemistries, etc.... That and the commercialization of using hydrogen to eventually replace gas (they can be mixed together) for all its purposes (generation, heating, transportation, etc.) will be critical to reducing gas consumption, much like electrification is the key to reducing oil consumption.

Also, keep in mind that a lot of this will also be done on the demand-side, whether that's controlling the charging of electric vehicles or scheduling industrial processes to be done and buildings' HVAC systems to be used when renewable generation is highest / energy demand & prices are lowest.

I'm increasingly involved with a company that's involved in a lot of these emerging technologies, and there are going to be a lot of changes as they get deployed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 22, 2019, 10:31:27 PM

A gas turbine cab start in minutes.  It is like a jet engine.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on December 23, 2019, 04:15:23 PM

Raining all last night and into the morning here in Southern California, the stormy cold front on its way into Arizona. Combine this year’s rain with last year’s as well and I don’t ever remember the Southwest region accumulating the winter volumes of rains as it does now. And from the looks of it I don’t ever remembering seeing so much snow on the Laguna Ranges in San Diego County (starts sticking at an elevation of 3500 ft about 30 miles from Pacific Coast).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2019, 04:20:45 PM

Weather, Climate, and Environment. They all change, over time.


Here's a cool read I stumbled upon.


https://spectator.us/just-best-decade-human-history-seriously/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2019, 04:48:20 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on December 23, 2019, 04:15:23 PM

Raining all last night and into the morning here in Southern California, the stormy cold front on its way into Arizona. Combine this year’s rain with last year’s as well and I don’t ever remember the Southwest region accumulating the winter volumes of rains as it does now. And from the looks of it I don’t ever remembering seeing so much snow on the Laguna Ranges in San Diego County (starts sticking at an elevation of 3500 ft about 30 miles from Pacific Coast).

Yeah, my parents are coming out from Colorado for the sun and warmth of SoCal this Christmas... Looks like they're not going to get much of either. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 23, 2019, 04:55:36 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2019, 04:20:45 PM

Weather, Climate, and Environment. They all change, over time.


Here's a cool read I stumbled upon.


https://spectator.us/just-best-decade-human-history-seriously/

Nice article.  We're using less stuff.  Who'da thunkit?
The one on why Meghan Markle is a disaster for the British monarchy was interesting too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 23, 2019, 09:58:13 PM

No doubt that GDP and energy consumption are no longer correlated in developed countries. I'm a little skeptical of some other statements in the article, and I also wouldn't conflate organic food with the sustainability movement, considering indoor agriculture, plant-based meat substitutes (and eventually lab-grown meats) are definitely less energy intensive and will become cost-effective in time.

Overall, standards of living are still improving, but they are decreasing in the developed world, particularly due to growing income inequality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 23, 2019, 10:17:00 PM

Organic food IMHO is a scam.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 23, 2019, 10:49:38 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on December 23, 2019, 09:58:13 PM

. . . Overall, standards of living are still improving, but they are decreasing in the developed world, particularly due to growing income inequality.

Do you have a source for that, Michi?
Growing income inequality alone would not necessarily mean lower standards of living for anyone.  It could be that the living standards of the rich are rising faster than the living standards of the poor.
But, let's say that living standards in the developed world are declining.
Wouldn't that be analogous to the rich in our country getting somewhat less rich while the poor are getting richer?  In your opinion, would that be unjust?
Income inequality doesn't especially bother me unless it is clearly the cause of other problems.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 24, 2019, 09:06:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 23, 2019, 10:17:00 PM

Organic food IMHO is a scam.

Yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 09:33:36 AM

Some parts of the developed world are stagnant economically, Europe in particular.  The mean standard of living may not be improving, or is doing so slowly.  This is one reason France has these general strikes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 01:08:29 PM

I saw a quasi-interesting editorial in the WSJ that folks who think climate change is the world's largest problem should support going to war with China.  It was tongue in cheek of course, hopefully, but with an "element" of truth, probably tungsten (W).

Some elements have rather unusual atomic symbols, but there usually is a story there somewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 24, 2019, 04:52:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 01:08:29 PM

I saw a quasi-interesting editorial in the WSJ that folks who think climate change is the world's largest problem should support going to war with China.  It was tongue in cheek of course, hopefully, but with an "element" of truth, probably tungsten (W).

Some elements have rather unusual atomic symbols, but there usually is a story there somewhere.

From the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge:

Quote

[Tungsten] Etymology

The name "tungsten" (from the Swedish tung sten, "heavy stone") is used in English, French, and many other languages as the name of the element, but not in the Nordic countries. "Tungsten" was the old Swedish name for the mineral scheelite. "Wolfram" (or "volfram") is used in most European (especially Germanic, Spanish and Slavic) languages and is derived from the mineral wolframite, which is the origin of the chemical symbol W. The name "wolframite" is derived from German "wolf rahm" ("wolf soot" or "wolf cream"), the name given to tungsten by Johan Gottschalk Wallerius in 1747. This, in turn, derives from Latin "lupi spuma", the name Georg Agricola used for the element in 1546, which translates into English as "wolf's froth" and is a reference to the large amounts of tin consumed by the mineral during its extraction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 05:38:43 PM

Tin is another one, and antimony, of course.  It's fairly common for elements like sodium to use their Latin name abbreviation (Natrium).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 24, 2019, 06:23:26 PM

Stannum: Tin (Sn); Ferrum: Iron (Fe); Cuprum: Copper (Cu); Aurum: Gold (Au); Argentum: Silver (Ag); Natrium: Sodium (Na).  All from Latin.

Magnesium looks Latin, but it comes from the region in central Greece known as Magnesia.  Lithium is also from Greek, lithos meaning "stone."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 24, 2019, 06:32:45 PM

I just came across this chart global peak oil forecast on the Wikipedia article on Petroleum.  The article doesn't seem to be a very current one, though.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/GlobalPeakOilForecast.jpg)

Some authors credit the production of the first great petroleum product--kerosene--for saving several species of whales from being hunted to extinction for their oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 24, 2019, 10:28:09 PM

People used to think Peak Oil would be a supply issue, but it's now well-understood that demand will decline (primarily due to electrification and eventually the rise of hydrogen, particularly for the transportation sector) well before it becomes an issue on the supply side. It hasn't peaked yet, but it certainly could soon....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 10:29:49 PM

Petroleum is fascinating stuff, along with the petrochemical industry.  I only learned a tiny bit about it, but what I did learn was pretty amazing.  We had a joint venture with Shell Chemical for a while.

Their head of R&D "back in the day" was a PhD chemical engineer with the name of "Jimmy Doolittle", who was famous for something else.  They wanted to name their research center after him but couldn't.

I'm told he was brilliant.  The guys at Shell was pretty fun, they took me to a baseball game at the Astrodome, 11th wonder of Texas or something.  They had some neat tech.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 10:30:40 PM

I still don't understand how hydrogen can "work".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 24, 2019, 11:23:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 10:29:49 PM

Petroleum is fascinating stuff, along with the petrochemical industry.  I only learned a tiny bit about it, but what I did learn was pretty amazing.  We had a joint venture with Shell Chemical for a while.

Their head of R&D "back in the day" was a PhD chemical engineer with the name of "Jimmy Doolittle", who was famous for something else.  They wanted to name their research center after him but couldn't.

I'm told he was brilliant.  The guys at Shell was pretty fun, they took me to a baseball game at the Astrodome, 11th wonder of Texas or something.  They had some neat tech.

Did you ever have occasion to meet "Mr." Doolittle, CD?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 25, 2019, 04:18:50 PM

No, he had retired before I did any work with them, circa 1990 or so.  I enjoyed working with those folks.  It was by far the most interesting project I ever worked on.  I think all together I put in about 12 years of my career on it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 25, 2019, 04:41:15 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on December 23, 2019, 10:49:38 PM

Income inequality doesn't especially bother me unless it is clearly the cause of other problems.

It is clearly the cause of other problems.  #1:  money in politics

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on December 25, 2019, 04:49:44 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 24, 2019, 10:30:40 PM

I still don't understand how hydrogen can "work".

The short story is that it can gradually displace natural gas, because they can be mixed together. So when/where hydrogen becomes more cost-effective (eg. islands and remote locations, initially, where renewable energy is cheap, and/or where electricity is expensive) it can be use the same infrastructure as natural gas, be it for heating, generation, or something else).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 25, 2019, 11:20:13 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 25, 2019, 04:41:15 PM

It is clearly the cause of other problems.  #1:  money in politics

It's not clear to me at all that income inequality causes "money in politics," whatever you mean by that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 07:42:48 AM

Forecast cloudy and 65°F today and tomorrow here in the ATL.  It's cloudy right now for sure, rain in two days they say.

Weather forecasting is interesting, to me.  I doubt that any ten days out is any better than just using the averages for that day.  The story of how the barometer was devised is interesting.  

http://www.softschools.com/inventions/history/barometer_history/20/ (http://www.softschools.com/inventions/history/barometer_history/20/)

• Most scientists of his day thought that air had no weight, but Evangelista Torricelli suspected that it did. He worked with tubes filled with mercury (a liquid metal that we now know is dangerous). He found that if he sealed the tubes at one end, the mercury would fall away from the sealed end, but stop at the same level every time. He believed that this showed that there was pressure from the air balancing with the weight of the mercury.
• A complete theory of how the barometer worked was developed by the French scientist Blaise Pascal. He realized that if air had vertical weight, the pressure would be lower at higher altitudes. In 1646, he asked a relative to carry a barometer up a mountain, and record the mercury height as he went. Sure enough, the mercury level dropped as his relative climbed higher. This proved that air pressure is caused by the vertical weight of air.
• The first altimeters for airplanes were basically barometers. They determined altitude by measuring the change in air pressure with height.
• Barometric pressure is higher on sunny days, and low on stormy days. Measuring the change in air pressure that comes along with storm systems is a vital part of weather prediction.

As CW knows well, the "standard" altimeter in a flying machine is indeed just a barometer.  You set it at ground level to whatever the pressure is that day and it's pretty accurate if you don't fly through a front somewhere.  At 17,000 feet, you are at roughly half an atmosphere, at 34,000, a quarter.  Folks today do free climb Mt. Everest, somehow, they have to get up and down in a relative hurry though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 07:49:47 AM

Helium is a useful gas.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/08/news-helium-mri-superconducting-markets-reserve-technology/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/08/news-helium-mri-superconducting-markets-reserve-technology/)

The helium market's core currently lurks underneath Amarillo, Texas. Since the 1920s, the town has been home to the Federal Helium Reserve (https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/helium/federal-helium-program), a massive underground geological formation that acts as the U.S. strategic supply. Amarillo calls itself the Helium Capital of the World; there's a monument to the element in town (https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/helium-time-columns-monument), a six-story steel spire with a model of a helium atom at its center.

When we run out, we're out, it's not feasible to get more from anywhere but NG wells, in effect.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 26, 2019, 09:39:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 07:42:48 AM

As CW knows well, the "standard" altimeter in a flying machine is indeed just a barometer.  You set it at ground level to whatever the pressure is that day and it's pretty accurate if you don't fly through a front somewhere.  At 17,000 feet, you are at roughly half an atmosphere, at 34,000, a quarter.  Folks today do free climb Mt. Everest, somehow, they have to get up and down in a relative hurry though.

In flight school, we went into a pressure chamber that took us up above a simulated 22,500 feet.  I'm not sure what level we reached, but I was the last guy to pass out.  I imagine that one can train to do better at altitude, but I can't imagine going to 29,000 feet without oxygen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 11:44:59 AM

https://judithcurry.com/2019/12/23/3-degrees-c/#more-25553 (https://judithcurry.com/2019/12/23/3-degrees-c/#more-25553)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 11:47:55 AM

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/mount-everest-fasted-time-climb-kilian-jornet-a7752006.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/mount-everest-fasted-time-climb-kilian-jornet-a7752006.html)

Kilian Jornet, who made his first attempt on the mountain in September 2016, reached the summit of the mountain (8,848m), via the north face, following the traditional route in a single climb.

The ascent, which forms part of his Summits of my Life project, is said to be the fastest known climb of the mountain. Reuters said that most climbers take two to three weeks to summit Mount Everest and fewer than 200 people have summited without oxygen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 26, 2019, 03:12:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 07:49:47 AM

Helium is a useful gas.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/08/news-helium-mri-superconducting-markets-reserve-technology/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/08/news-helium-mri-superconducting-markets-reserve-technology/)

The helium market's core currently lurks underneath Amarillo, Texas. Since the 1920s, the town has been home to the Federal Helium Reserve (https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/helium/federal-helium-program), a massive underground geological formation that acts as the U.S. strategic supply. Amarillo calls itself the Helium Capital of the World; there's a monument to the element in town (https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/helium-time-columns-monument), a six-story steel spire with a model of a helium atom at its center.

When we run out, we're out, it's not feasible to get more from anywhere but NG wells, in effect. 

Helium is very useful... It's actually critical to most modern enterprise hard drives. Because helium is so much lighter than air, and as a pure gas, it allows HDD vendors to pack more platters into a specific disk. Many people don't realize it, but the heads inside a hard drive are legitimately flying above the media surface, using the airspeed created by the spinning platters over an air bearing surface to generate lift. 

Normal air is turbulent, but pure helium is much less so. So by filling a drive with helium, higher platter counts and thus higher drive capacities can be achieved.

The problem is that helium is a wily little molecule, and likes to escape from basically anywhere it exists. It can seep through nearly anything. So the process of sealing a drive containing helium such that it will continue to contain helium is non-trivial. I can't really go into the technologies involved in sealing a drive so that the helium can't escape (trade secrets / confidentiality and such), but it's pretty sophisticated.

Older (air) hard drives aren't sealed. They have a filter to keep particulates out, but they equalize to the air pressure around them. This creates a problem... In order to fly, you need a certain density of air. As you go higher in elevation, and the air thins, you can reach a point where hard drives can no longer reliably operate because the air density is too low for their heads to fly at the same distance over the media that they need. Typical air HDDs have a spec of maximum operating elevation of 10,000 ft. 

So... Why am I boring all of you with this? Because here's the fun part.

You recall earlier this year when the first ever image of a black hole was announced? It was a big thing...

Well, helium played a role in that. Many of these major observatories exist about 10,000 ft. Because of the huge amount of data they are storing [coupled with the shoestring budgets that they work under], hard drives are the only storage medium they can use. Well, apparently their drives were dying left and right because of the elevation... Until they started using helium drives. Because helium drives are sealed, they are immune to the elevation changes that would affect air drives. 

This was a pretty exciting thing for my company, being involved in such a major scientific event. It's always fun to tell the kids, who basically have no understanding of what I do, that I can point to something like this and say that while I wasn't involved in any tangible way, it would have been VERY hard for them to accomplish this without our products...

https://blog.westerndigital.com/helium-filled-hdd-black-hole-image/ (https://blog.westerndigital.com/helium-filled-hdd-black-hole-image/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 03:22:22 PM

I did not know that at all, very interesting, thanks for that info.

Helium is the second most common element in the universe.  Its more trivial uses should probably be limited.

Obviously, it is very important for superconductors.  A decade or so back, we supposedly were on the verge of a superconductor breakthrough to get to room temperature, or at least to dry ice temperatures.  That whole field seemed to just stop (I'm sure it didn't, but the breathless reporting did.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on December 26, 2019, 03:32:19 PM

At the park enjoying this 62 degree day after Christmas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 05:11:01 PM

https://www.motortrend.com/news/c8-chevrolet-corvette-zr1-hybrid-twin-turbo-dohc-v-8-with-900-hp/?fbclid=IwAR3P1OVH2xd-6cim_wPdc6TkGNJSEY_QfkaMVZld_dsuVUh352-DGk1H36E (https://www.motortrend.com/news/c8-chevrolet-corvette-zr1-hybrid-twin-turbo-dohc-v-8-with-900-hp/?fbclid=IwAR3P1OVH2xd-6cim_wPdc6TkGNJSEY_QfkaMVZld_dsuVUh352-DGk1H36E)

Are we near "peak horsepower" in cars today?

Hmmmm.  I lean to thinking yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 26, 2019, 05:42:03 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on December 26, 2019, 03:12:41 PM

 It's always fun to tell the kids, who basically have no understanding of what I do, that I can point to something like this and say that while I wasn't involved in any tangible way, it would have been VERY hard for them to accomplish this without our products...

https://blog.westerndigital.com/helium-filled-hdd-black-hole-image/ (https://blog.westerndigital.com/helium-filled-hdd-black-hole-image/)

Oh yeah?  Well  because of what *I* do, my kids got this Alienware gaming monitor for Christmas and I didn't have to pay a dime for it!  Who's the cooler dad NOW, huh? 

(https://slickdeals.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Alienware-34-inch-Curved-Gaming-Monitor-setup.jpg)


But seriously, I get it.  Back when I was actually an electrical engineer and not a marketing guy, I was never able to really explain what I did to my wife and family.  And we were doing some cutting edge parallel ion implantation for wafer fabrication at the time.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 05:59:01 PM

I was developing specialized low Tg thermoset polymers from high internal phase emulsions.

Great dinner table convos.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 26, 2019, 06:36:08 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 05:59:01 PM

I was developing specialized low Tg thermoset polymers from high internal phase emulsions.

Great dinner table convos.

and a thread killer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 26, 2019, 06:36:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 26, 2019, 05:11:01 PM

https://www.motortrend.com/news/c8-chevrolet-corvette-zr1-hybrid-twin-turbo-dohc-v-8-with-900-hp/?fbclid=IwAR3P1OVH2xd-6cim_wPdc6TkGNJSEY_QfkaMVZld_dsuVUh352-DGk1H36E (https://www.motortrend.com/news/c8-chevrolet-corvette-zr1-hybrid-twin-turbo-dohc-v-8-with-900-hp/?fbclid=IwAR3P1OVH2xd-6cim_wPdc6TkGNJSEY_QfkaMVZld_dsuVUh352-DGk1H36E)

Are we near "peak horsepower" in cars today?

Hmmmm.  I lean to thinking yes.

I think the answer "should" be yes.
I'm pretty sure the answer is no

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 27, 2019, 07:51:35 AM

Passenger cars, even sports cars today, are struggling to get all that power to the ground, even with near slicks, AWD, and traction/launch control.  A Corvette with 90 hp and AWD is not even at the top of the heap hp-wise.  You could go to 2,000 hp if you wanted but the car wouldn't be any* faster in the quarter mile or to 60, and this is with excellent sticky tires and all the gizmos.

*Might be slightly faster in the quarter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 27, 2019, 08:58:01 AM

logic and statistics won't work with the horsepower gearhead types

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 27, 2019, 10:09:12 AM

If they have the money, they will fulfill a market niche.  How many 1600 ho Bugattis are sold in the US each year?

If we get to largely autonomous vehicles, what difference will it make?  What kind of car would you want if you aren't driving it?  Comfortable, amenities, quiet, nice sound system ... handling and acceleration?  Meh.  

I seriously pondered buying a Corvette a couple years back.  I saw one on the showroom pretty much what I wanted with a heavy discount.  My rational side said "Yeah, but where are you going to drive that thing anywhere near its limits?".

I don't even push the GTI that hard, I've never had it floored.  I've tossed an occasional corner with a bit of verve but not near the limits.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 27, 2019, 11:08:15 AM

damn, get out this afternoon and put the petal to the metal for a few seconds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 27, 2019, 11:09:43 AM

I'm getting old.  Really.  My back hurts, my legs hurt, my shoulder is killing me ... and I'm about to go running.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 27, 2019, 11:12:32 AM

might bring a slight smile

I certainly don't hold the accelerator to the floor often in my pickup truck, but it does happen every so often

it's not very impressive, but it's more impressive than half throttle

I'm usually pretty easy on the 5.3, trying to keep the gas guage from plummeting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 27, 2019, 11:15:53 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 27, 2019, 11:12:32 AM

might bring a slight smile

I certainly don't hold the accelerator to the floor often in my pickup truck, but it does happen every so often

it's not very impressive, but it's more impressive than half throttle

I'm usually pretty easy on the 5.3, trying to keep the gas guage from plummeting

My truck has an almost embarrassing array of gauges and displays that I seldom use, but the one I do keep it on some of the time, is the fuel economy gauge.  It sure is tough to have a fun time driving, without driving that think down below 5 mpg.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 27, 2019, 11:19:42 AM

I'm not sure how best to launch the GTI from a standstill, I'd have to work on that for a while I'm sure.  It has an LSD, or LST I guess it is, and some sort of traction control.  I don't really want to floor it and drop the clutch for obvious reasons.  I'm better off flooring it on an on ramp, but when I've given it throttle when merging around here, I'm rapidly over taking cars in front of me.  I don't often get "OTP" (outside the perimeter).  We are driving to Hilton Head and then Sarasota in January so perhaps I'll get gnarly and feel my oats, or trip over them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 27, 2019, 11:23:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 27, 2019, 11:19:42 AM

I'm not sure how best to launch the GTI from a standstill, I'd have to work on that for a while I'm sure.  It has an LSD, or LST I guess it is, and some sort of traction control.  I don't really want to floor it and drop the clutch for obvious reasons.  I'm better off flooring it on an on ramp, but when I've given it throttle when merging around here, I'm rapidly over taking cars in front of me.  I don't often get "OTP" (outside the perimeter).  We are driving to Hilton Head and then Sarasota in January so perhaps I'll get gnarly and feel my oats, or trip over them.

Enjoy the ride!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 27, 2019, 11:26:15 AM

Up here in the great white north, I'm ALWAYS outside the perimeter, so, if I ever take the plunge and do something incredibly impractical and purchase that C6 Vette, I'll push it from time to time when I feel it can be done relatively safely for everyone.


that means usually as the only person in the car on a lonely empty road

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 27, 2019, 11:29:28 AM

I repainted a wall in the kitchen over the weekend, where the thermostat sits. In the process of removing and reinstalling the thermostat, I realized that it's decrepit and needs to be replaced. The screws holding in the wires to the furnace / AC controllers are so jammed that I can't even move them, and thus can't connect the existing thermostat.

So I ordered one from Amazon, due to arrive today. Meaning... We're going on day 6 in the house without a working heater.

Good thing I live in SoCal :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 27, 2019, 12:26:45 PM

I turned on my heater for a couple nights a couple weeks ago.

But when we went camping over last weekend, we had some overnight lows in the 20s out there in the country.  Good thing my RV has an extremely effective furnace! :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 29, 2019, 08:36:26 AM

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30350065/honda-vw-electric-cars-future/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR3aLjMH0AWJlg0evZdrXaMvoKKRI9Es3QclCgGiRawrv5B4QLTlr9yIC2Q (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30350065/honda-vw-electric-cars-future/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR3aLjMH0AWJlg0evZdrXaMvoKKRI9Es3QclCgGiRawrv5B4QLTlr9yIC2Q)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2019, 10:21:17 AM

https://electrek.co/2019/12/27/get-ready-for-more-states-to-charge-ev-fees-in-2020/ (https://electrek.co/2019/12/27/get-ready-for-more-states-to-charge-ev-fees-in-2020/)



[img width=982 height=905 title=Get ready for more states to charge EV fees in 2020]https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/cr-map.jpg?quality=82&strip=all[/img]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 30, 2019, 01:41:21 PM

FYI, according to a Pentagon report, Britian is predicted to be plunged into a "Siberian" climate in 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting all over the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver)

Or... At least that's what was predicted in 2004. 

I mean, I guess technically they've still got 367 days for it to come true, right? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 01:47:32 PM

There was a fairly short lived theory that the "Atlantic Converor" would shut down due to melting ice water from Greenland.  That would stop the flow of warmer water up the North American coast and back down the Europe.  Paris is on the same latitude as Montreal but is considerably warmer.  Had this happened, it would have caused some major dislocations.  Further research into the theory tended to dispel it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 30, 2019, 02:28:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 01:47:32 PM

There was a fairly short lived theory that the "Atlantic Converor" would shut down due to melting ice water from Greenland.  That would stop the flow of warmer water up the North American coast and back down the Europe.  Paris is on the same latitude as Montreal but is considerably warmer.  Had this happened, it would have caused some major dislocations.  Further research into the theory tended to dispel it.

Yeah, if I remember correctly that was the premise for the movie The Day After Tomorrow. The flow stopped, and it issued in a rapid ice age in the north of the US and Europe. 

Sometimes I think it's important to look back on predictions to help us avoid thinking that every new dire prediction is as likely to happen as it's proponents seem to think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 03:22:46 PM

Scientists will qualify nearly every prediction with qualifiers.  This then gets reported in the media without the qualifiers.  It's interesting to read the IPCC executive summary, it's not that long, and it contains a lot of qualifiers.

And of course, in science, it is standard to try and consider EVERY possibility and assess its probability.  This is an example, my emphasis added:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/slowdown-atlantic-conveyor-belt-could-trigger-two-decades-rapid-global-warming (https://www.carbonbrief.org/slowdown-atlantic-conveyor-belt-could-trigger-two-decades-rapid-global-warming)

Recent research (https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantic-conveyor-belt-has-slowed-15-per-cent-since-mid-twentieth-century) has suggested that the AMOC has weakened by around 15% since the middle of the 20th century. This could lead to considerable changes (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4) in climate and rainfall patterns throughout the northern hemisphere.

I had this same problem with managers who wanted clear cut assessments, when all I could SUGGEST was some probabilities about what COULD happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 03:47:27 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/battery-developments-in-the-last-decade-created-a-seismic-shift-that-will-play-out-in-the-next-10-years.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/battery-developments-in-the-last-decade-created-a-seismic-shift-that-will-play-out-in-the-next-10-years.html)

Interesting on batteries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 03:48:09 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on December 30, 2019, 02:28:38 PM

Sometimes I think it's important to look back on predictions to help us avoid thinking that every new dire prediction is as likely to happen as it's proponents seem to think.

like the demise of north america back in the 70s due to the fire ant and the killer bees?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 03:50:48 PM

A lot of these stories are nothing but media hype.  I have come to believe the "news" is more about hype than perspective and facts.  It makes sense, if it bleeds it leads etc.

Real news would be boring in comparison.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 03:55:55 PM

those stories were brought to my attention in 7th or 8th grade classrooms

along with the hole in the ozone caused by aerosol cans that was going to burn humans into extinction

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 30, 2019, 03:57:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 03:48:09 PM

like the demise of north america back in the 70s due to the fire ant and the killer bees?

Killer Bees was the 90s I think.

And Hooky sure loved to go on and on about the fireants.  He equated them to Republiucans overrunning the old Democratic Solid South or something.  I never was sure how he made that connection, but he sure did bleat on about it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 04:00:32 PM

you might have been in 7th grade in the 90s

Apis mellifera scutellata, the "Africanized bee," scourge of the '70s; poster for the 1978 movie 'The Swarm.' Source: Wikimedia Commons, IMDB

The killer bees are coming! That's what we heard over and over in the '70s, thanks to the killer bee scare that became a media sensation. Fear about an invasion of killer bees stoked schoolyard debates and inspired disaster movies.


https://groovyhistory.com/killer-bees-1970s (https://groovyhistory.com/killer-bees-1970s)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 04:00:48 PM

I think the ozone hole was a real thing.  We largely eliminated CFCs globally, which is a something, though the HCFCs we used as replacements are not perfect.

And the latest I have read suggests the "hole" is shrinking.  

There is always a crisis somewhere.  If there isn't, there will be film at 11 anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 30, 2019, 04:04:04 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 04:00:32 PM

you might have been in 7th grade in the 90s

Apis mellifera scutellata, the "Africanized bee," scourge of the '70s; poster for the 1978 movie 'The Swarm.' Source: Wikimedia Commons, IMDB

The killer bees are coming! That's what we heard over and over in the '70s, thanks to the killer bee scare that became a media sensation. Fear about an invasion of killer bees stoked schoolyard debates and inspired disaster movies.


https://groovyhistory.com/killer-bees-1970s (https://groovyhistory.com/killer-bees-1970s)

Well there you have it. They were coming up from Central America through Mexico right?  So Texas was supposed to be among the first hit.  Maybe we were overrun by killer bees 40 years ago and they're so smart they somehow hid it from us?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 04:07:45 PM

It turns out that Killer Bees' favorite food is fire ants, but when they eat them they die.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 04:11:34 PM

they internally combust 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 04:13:31 PM

he other crisis in the 70's, perhaps to distract us from the conflict in Vietnam, was that fossil fuels were going to run out in the next decade

no more oil, gasoline, coal.

rationing gasoline in California in the 70's

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 30, 2019, 04:23:14 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 04:13:31 PM

he other crisis in the 70's, perhaps to distract us from the conflict in Vietnam, was that fossil fuels were going to run out in the next decade

no more oil, gasoline, coal.

rationing gasoline in California in the 70's

Yeah, that was present in the 80s as well.  I did a summer program at Northwestern University iduring the summer before my senior year in high school.  It was a Science/Engineering program where you took 5 courses over the course of 6 weeks, and completed a semester-long research project as well.  And sprinkled in throughout, were seminars on various topics.

One of those seminars was focused on environmentalism, and some well respected scientists of the time assured us that we were going to run out of fossil fuels by the year 2000.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2019, 04:26:02 PM

smart guys aren't always so smart

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2019, 05:11:05 PM

The future is often unpredictable.  I have a book around here somewhere predicting life in the 21st century dated about 1980.  It is hilarious, really.  There was a "consultant" back in the day named Faith Popcorn, really, who gave speeches and whatnot about the coming of whatever.  I think she was wrong so often it was useful, but she got rich.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2019, 10:49:13 AM

It's been happening for centuries

why do folks ALWAYS buy the snakeoil?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 31, 2019, 10:54:24 AM

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a29821418/the-numbers-arent-everything/?src=socialflowFBRAT&fbclid=IwAR1S-5i0AbNcoDvz96rx0m1i73ghbY9pGfxw3t7h1Di44srmBzJFdglgbUQ (https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a29821418/the-numbers-arent-everything/?src=socialflowFBRAT&fbclid=IwAR1S-5i0AbNcoDvz96rx0m1i73ghbY9pGfxw3t7h1Di44srmBzJFdglgbUQ)

Nice article about cars and numbers, relevant to my peak hp supposition.

As for predicting the future, "we" have a vested interest in trying.  Where will the DJIA be at the end of next year?  At the end of 2025?  Who will be elected President?  

A "news show" i'd like to see is an analysis of "THE NEWS" from one year ago today, covering what was the BIG ITEM and whatever became of it.  I'm pretty sure it would be hilarious, "Can you believe we were all upset/excited about that?"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2019, 11:37:16 AM

great idea

I assume most "news" outlets would not be in favor

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 31, 2019, 12:17:50 PM

I suggested this a while back to John King, he said it sounded like a good idea, but he may have been pandering.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 31, 2019, 03:03:33 PM

Well, each "side" of the news would gladly do it to the stories run by the other.  I doubt they'd have much interest in self-reflection though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 31, 2019, 03:08:55 PM

The major story often is the same across networks, a hurricane, fires in CA, some shooting spree, some international event, politics of course ... and a year later, "we" can't recall much of anything about them, in the main, which suggests to met that a lot of our "news" is really of little consequence when seen in hindsight.

Maybe they like to hype stories for ratings ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 31, 2019, 03:16:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 31, 2019, 03:08:55 PM

The major story often is the same across networks, a hurricane, fires in CA, some shooting spree, some international event, politics of course ... and a year later, "we" can't recall much of anything about them, in the main, which suggests to met that a lot of our "news" is really of little consequence when seen in hindsight.

Maybe they like to hype stories for ratings ....

NO WAY!!!!!! :)


I do think the long format news magazines like Time used to perform this function for us, at least somewhat.  But I haven't picked up a Time from a newstand in a decade.  Are there even newstands anymore?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 02, 2020, 07:05:26 PM

Why electric cars still don't live up to the hype: Charles Lane
By Charles Lane 14 hrs ago

With a new decade starting, it’s time for conscientious columnists to undergo their self-administered decennial performance reviews.

I’ll start — and try to keep it focused. For the past 10 years, I’ve waged a quixotic counteroffensive against electric-car boosterism, raining skepticism on the vehicles’ potential to cure climate change, much less to be the clean, green wave of the transportation future.

More than a few people (my Tesla-owner friends very much included) have questioned this fixation, and I freely admit it’s an odd one.

I just figured that someone in an otherwise credulous press had to sort through the cloud of wishful thinking, political rhetoric and sheer commercial hype surrounding this subject, and it might as well be me.

Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64% fueled by coal and gas.

Nothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States — less than 0.5% of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of electrical vehicles, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Globally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5%, were electrical vehicles. That’s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn’s 2010 prognostication of 10 percent of global sales by 2020.

My biggest error, in hindsight, was to underestimate the financial staying power of Elon Musk’s cash-burning Tesla Motors, which I thought would exhaust investors’ patience long before it conquered the complexities of mass-producing quality vehicles. Tesla’s Model 3 is the most popular electric car on the market, with 111,000 sold in the first nine months of 2019. Owners swear by it.

Tesla’s survival, though, may be the exception that proves the rule. (And we’ll see how it does now that Congress has allowed that tax credit to lapse.) Ballyhooed start-ups such as Coda, TH!NK and Fisker all went bankrupt before 2015 — Fisker after defaulting on an Energy Department loan at an ultimate cost to taxpayers of $139 million.

Chevrolet discontinued its Volt, a plug-in hybrid, in 2019 after selling only about 150,000 since the car launched in 2011. That same year, President Barack Obama had set a goal of having 1 million plug-in vehicles on the road by 2015.

But wait. What about recent reports that Volkswagen is making big new investments in electrics? Or Ford’s announcement of a new all-electric Mustang crossover? GM, Chevy’s parent company, says it, too, is preparing a new generation of electrical vehicles.

Established automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.

They are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments — even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards — than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.

The problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an electrical vehicle down to that of a gas equivalent. There’s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements.

GM President Mark Reuss recently wrote that electrical vehicle-gas cost parity may happen “within a decade.” Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo told Automotive News Europe: “I do not believe there will be a dramatic increase in demand for battery vehicles, and I believe this situation is true globally.”

A mid-2018 report by JPMorgan Asset Management noted that the median global forecast by industry experts is 125 million electrical vehicles on the road worldwide by 2030, which would be less than 10 percent of the total. “I’m taking the ‘under’ rather than the ‘over,’ ” the report’s author, Michael Cembalest, added.

Me, too. Let’s reconvene in 10 years to see who wins that wager, and to assess the true costs and benefits of the bet that big government and big business have placed on the electric car.

Charles Lane writes for The Washington Post.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 02, 2020, 08:56:28 PM

the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64% fueled by coal and gas.


this seems low compared to what I've read here.

my electric provider is VERY proud that they have just gone over 50% on wind/solar for their customers in Iowa

Iowa is one of the top wind producers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 02, 2020, 09:06:19 PM

When it is the result of all you guys breaking wind, it actually adds to the greenhouse gas effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 03, 2020, 12:51:51 AM

Several big European countries have already banned internal combustion engines. It may not be happening as fast as expected, but electric cars are still the future, and I think the same is still true for buses and small commercial vehicles. The biggest variable is when autonomous technology is deployed, after which car ownership will inevitably become obsolete, anyway. What happens for freight transportation is still certainly an open question, though.

2018 numbers of generation share is 63.6% fossil fuel, 19.4% nuclear, and 16.9 renewables (including hydro).... Renewables have probably gained another 1-2% over the past year. Of course, it varies by part of the country with higher levels of renewable generation in the West Coast, Great Plains, and Southwest compared to the Northeast and Southeast.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 06:06:19 AM

I don't think any have banned them as of now.  They have plans to move away from them in the future, but not today.  I'm headed to France later this month and I'm 100% sure to get a Diesel rental car.  Paris has some pretty bad air pollution at times and I know the city plans to ban Diesels in the future, they can't  ban them today except they are moving the cabs away from them, a lot of the cabs are Priuses.

Norway sales are over half EVs now because they pay much lower taxes and tolls.  That's an interesting way to promote EVs, you don't pay tolls.  The freeways intercity in Europe are largely toll roads and they get expensive in a hurry.  We spent nearly $100 on tolls driving from Lyon to Bordeaux if memory serves.  Might have been $70.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 06:11:41 AM

Freight as in rail freight could be electrified over time.  The engines today are already electric, it's just that they use Diesels to provide the electricity.  Electric motors are an effective means to deliver torque to the wheels gradually and effectively, no wheel spin now.  One could modify these engines with pickups overhead to shut down the Diesel where power is available.

Airplanes of course are another story entirely.  The wife was checking how to get from Paris to Marseilles the other day and told me that flying our of Orly was cheaper than the TGV, and faster.  She later said we probably would not make that trip for other reasons.  Sometimes the airport of course is out of the city when the trains drop you off inside like Gare du Nord versus CDG.

The trains in France have been largely shut down by a general strike, we're hearing it is a real mess right now, and she wants to go into the city one night.  Yuck.  We're driving, traffic may be worse than normal.  I do not care for Paris.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2020, 10:32:08 AM

not too many things happen as quickly as some folks would expect

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 03, 2020, 12:54:15 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 06:06:19 AM

I don't think any have banned them as of now.  They have plans to move away from them in the future, but not today.  I'm headed to France later this month and I'm 100% sure to get a Diesel rental car.  Paris has some pretty bad air pollution at times and I know the city plans to ban Diesels in the future, they can't  ban them today except they are moving the cabs away from them, a lot of the cabs are Priuses.

Norway sales are over half EVs now because they pay much lower taxes and tolls.  That's an interesting way to promote EVs, you don't pay tolls.  The freeways intercity in Europe are largely toll roads and they get expensive in a hurry.  We spent nearly $100 on tolls driving from Lyon to Bordeaux if memory serves.  Might have been $70.

So, effectively, the Norwegian government is subsidizing EVs.  They are removing the burden of paying for road from the "good people" (EV owners) and transferring it to the "bad people" (IC-car owners).  And, as EVs are more expensive (otherwise there wouldn't be the need to subsidize them), this is effectively a regressive tax.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 01:07:36 PM

As far back as 1990, the government began to introduce incentives for EV owners. Big changes started to come at the turn of the millennium when road tax was lowered, charges for toll roads and public ferries were removed, and free parking offered in some municipal car parks.

Norway’s 25% sales tax was removed from new EV purchases in 2001, and drivers were permitted to use bus lanes from 2005. Although the country’s extensive charging infrastructure was kick-started by government money, private companies are now taking over operations and there has been a lot of interest from overseas.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/06/18/electric-cars-why-little-norway-leads-the-world-in-ev-usage/#453494cf13e3 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/06/18/electric-cars-why-little-norway-leads-the-world-in-ev-usage/#453494cf13e3)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 03, 2020, 01:29:01 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on January 03, 2020, 12:51:51 AM

Several big European countries have already banned internal combustion engines. It may not be happening as fast as expected, but electric cars are still the future, and I think the same is still true for buses and small commercial vehicles. 

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 06:06:19 AM

I don't think any have banned them as of now.  They have plans to move away from them in the future, but not today.  

Yeah, it's a common thing that I see... When a country puts in a policy that is long-dated, which allows them to claim to have done something today even though the requirement to make it happen is down the road and may get canceled if the economics don't line up. 

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/denmark-eu-ban-gas-diesel-cars/ (https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/denmark-eu-ban-gas-diesel-cars/)

(https://www.cnet.com/news/electric-vehicle-majority-market-share-norway-march/)

Quote

Norway (https://www.cnet.com/news/electric-vehicle-majority-market-share-norway-march/) will end the sale of new cars that use fossil fuels in 2025, while used cars will still be permitted. It assumes remaining cars with internal-combustion engines will gradually be phased out. The Netherlands will enact a similar plan, but with a 2030 timeline. France and the UK have called for total bans by 2040.

Norway, because of the dramatic incentives* they've already created for EVs, might actually hit that 2025 goal, but I won't be completely shocked if it gets extended a few years if it's not economically viable. 

But for France and the UK, making a policy with a 20 year timeline allows politicians to hog all the glory of their forward-thinkingness today, while pushing the actual potential pain of the policy out far into the future when nobody will remember who was responsible. 

* And by incentives for EVs, I basically mean that they've made it so ruinously expensive to buy an ICEV that simply not applying those taxes and penalties to EVs makes them cost-effective in comparison. They artificially make ICEVs so expensive that not applying the same policies looks like a dramatic subsidy to EVs. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 02:21:26 PM

Yeah, any goal that has a date of 2040 is pretty absurd, unless there are intermediate hard goals and some way to meet them.  My goal is to lose 30 pounds by 2040, which might be possible.  There also can be issues with supply as Norway has learned.

It's interesting, to me, that France has such a high percentage of nuclear on their grid (for obvious reasons).  There was some talk of cutting that back but I think someone did the math and it went away, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2020, 02:46:21 PM

by 2040 I probably won't give a damn

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 02:54:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 03, 2020, 02:46:21 PM

by 2040 I probably won't give a damn

By 2020, I don't already on most things that get people riled.  I get very mad at people who get very mad over trivial things.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 03, 2020, 03:55:17 PM

The truth is that BEV won't make it until it's economically viable to make it. There are several things that need to happen:

• Cost of batteries need to come down. Right now it might be true that it's cheaper to "fill up" using electricity than gas, but the cost of batteries mean that you have a much higher acquisition cost today of a BEV vs gasoline vehicle. Right now it's still a purchase almost entirely limited to upper-income purchasers.
• City charging infrastructure needs to improve. The ideal, of course, is residential charging. But as a renter, I don't want to pony up ~$1000 to install a charger in my landlord's garage. A lot of apartment complexes don't have chargers or only have limited chargers today. So this is limited mostly to homeowners, or people who are by nature the BEV early-adopter types that would be willing to do this. 
• Highway charging infrastructure is important as well. Tesla leads here, but on highly-traveled routes [particularly in places like California], you can still run into multi-hour wait times (https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/01/rapid-ev-adoption-brings-queues-at-some-ev-chargers-on-thanksgiving-weekend/) during busy travel times [such as the holidays]. Now, for a multi-vehicle family, or if you choose to rent an ICEV for a trip like that, you can get around it. But again that means that you need to have higher income than many families to make it viable.

This stuff is all going the direction of increasing BEV adoption. But it's going to take years, and until it gets there, it will be a plaything of upper-income and multi-vehicle households who can deal with the higher initial acquisition costs. Many of those households are also homeowners and the types that might use home solar and home battery energy storage to dramatically reduce their home electricity AND automotive "fueling" costs. But not yet mainstream.

I'll be really interested in how it progresses by about 2026-27 or so. At that point my eldest will be heading off to college and it might be right around time to replace the main family-hauler with something a little smaller. I may look into the jump to BEV around that time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 04:24:55 PM

The new apartment and condo buildings around here all advertise that they have charging stations.  My doctor wanted to buy in our building (we have zero for sale anyway) but told me he had a Tesla.  I talked with our HOA head about putting in 4 stations, the HOA owns four spaces apparently.  We might do that and rent them.

It is definitely a lot cheaper to "refuel" by recharging, but it takes a long time to recoup the initial investment.  I looked at a Bolt (which of course may not be the best choice) as compared with a Cruze Hatchback similarly equipped.  Even after the tax rebate, the Cruze was $10,000 cheaper.  The Cruze also needs oil changes and would go through brake pads faster.  The cars are "about the same", the Bolt accelerates faster.  

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/compare/Chevrolet-Cruze-vs-Chevrolet-Bolt-EV_d2076_d2397 (https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/compare/Chevrolet-Cruze-vs-Chevrolet-Bolt-EV_d2076_d2397)

https://www.chargepoint.com/blog/charging-chevy-bolt-ev-everything-you-need-know/ (https://www.chargepoint.com/blog/charging-chevy-bolt-ev-everything-you-need-know/)

They show a cost of $1.18 for 50 miles of range in a Level 2 charger.  In a Cruze, that would take 1.2 gallons of gas, about $3.  That takes 2 hours to charge for 50 miles.

I could manage now with a Bolt as nearly all our driving is city driving, and I'd rent something for out of town.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2020, 05:10:54 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 03, 2020, 03:55:17 PM

The truth is that BEV won't make it until it's economically viable to make it. There are several things that need to happen:

• Highway charging infrastructure is important as well. Tesla leads here, but on highly-traveled routes [particularly in places like California], you can still run into multi-hour wait times (https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/01/rapid-ev-adoption-brings-queues-at-some-ev-chargers-on-thanksgiving-weekend/) during busy travel times

are these charging stations not standardized for all electric vehicles?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 03, 2020, 05:25:36 PM

I coincidentally did some research about this recently, and my understanding is that in addition to Tesla's, there are two other technologies for fast-charging as explained here:

https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/ (https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/)

However, Level 1 and Level 2 charging technologies are standardized. At least initially, private charging stations are going to be the solution, which is why many utilities are offering rebates for them. Some utilities are also investing in public charging infrastructure along with non-utility companies like EVGo. Point being, the infrastructure will probably not be the problem as much as EV costs. Of course, once autonomous vehicles are available and car ownership declines, the companies that own those cars will just take over empty parking lots and garages and install charging infrastructure there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2020, 05:30:50 PM

No, there are all sorts of types, including Tesla superchargers, which don't recharge anything else.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-supercharger-station-review-versus-chevy-bolt-charging-2019-10#the-next-day-i-began-using-the-chargehub-app-which-allows-you-to-search-for-nearby-charging-stations-and-locate-them-on-a-map-10 (https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-supercharger-station-review-versus-chevy-bolt-charging-2019-10#the-next-day-i-began-using-the-chargehub-app-which-allows-you-to-search-for-nearby-charging-stations-and-locate-them-on-a-map-10)

While Tesla touts its Supercharging network, it also supports an ever growing "Destination Charging" network as well. And the best thing about the Destination Charging stations? Non-Tesla EV owners can utilize them*!   These stations are not nearly as fast as Supercharging (for all intents and purposes, non-Tesla owners will only be able to charge at 7.2 kW max, compared to the 100+ kW charge rates Teslas can obtain at Superchargers),

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2020, 08:06:50 PM

WAYNESBORO, Ga. (WJBF) — When units three and four go on-line, Plant Vogtle will stand alone in the nuclear power industry.

“If these two units go into operation, it will be the only four-unit nuclear plant in the United States,” said U.S.NRC Spokesperson, Roger Hannah. “It will be the biggest nuclear power plant in the country.”

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has to approve the reactors before they’re operational.


“When we are satisfied that they have built it according to the design that was already approved, and they have tested it, and that system operates like it is supposed to, then we are good with that to move on the next item, ” explained Hannah.

Georgia Power’s communication manager says 8,000 workers are on site for the construction of the two units.

“All four units will provide enough electricity to power over 1-million homes and business here in Georgia,” said Jeff Wilson.

Even after the project is finished, the local job market will still get a boost.

“Even though we won’t have 8,000 construction workers, there will still be 800 permanent jobs, as well as people from all over the country to see these units,” said Wilson.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2020, 09:18:15 PM

Two companies that battled for more than a decade to expand coal power in Kansas say they’ve abandoned their plans to build a $2.2 billion coal-fired power plant.

Sunflower Electric Power Corp., based in Hays, announced Wednesday that it will let its air permit for a proposed coal-fired plant in Holcomb expire in March, signaling an end to a project that drawn criticism from environmentalists. It was first blocked by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius in 2007 and then cleared for construction by the Kansas Supreme Court in 2017.

But during that time, coal fell out of favor for environmental and economic reasons. It has been on a decline nationwide for at least a decade as public concerns about coal’s contribution to climate change have risen. At the same time, competing energy sources, such as cheaper natural gas and heavily-subsidized solar and wind energy, have taken off. The Kansas plant would have been the first one brought online in the United States since 2015.


As recently as November, Sunflower Electric told state regulators that it had “significant interest” in building a plant near Holcomb, a western Kansas town best known as the setting of Truman Capote’s “In Cold Blood.”

Sunflower Electric filed for an 18-month extension with the state on its air permit, which is set to expire on March 27, and at the time the Kansas Department of Health and Environment told the company that the permit would lapse at that time if construction had not started.

After 15 years and $100 million invested in the coal plant expansion, the company changed its mind Wednesday.

“Fifteen years ago, the price of natural gas was high, and wind generation was in its infancy,” Sunflower president and CEO Stuart Lowry said in a news release. “At that time, the expansion of Holcomb Station emerged as the best way to meet our members’ long-term needs for generating reliable, affordable energy.”

Proponents of the plant said it would prove a boon to an area of the state with a dwindling population and economic activity.

Sunflower Electric already operates one plant near Holcomb, and the expansion would have added another 895-megawatts of capacity. Along with its largest development partner, Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, more than $100 million was invested in the development plans for the plant, The Eagle reported previously.

In requesting a permit extension, Sunflower Electric acknowledged it and Tri-State no longer need the electricity that would be produced by a new coal plant. The company wrote that since the 2017 Supreme Court decision it has been looking for others to purchase power from the plant.

In a written statement Wednesday, Sunflower Electric said it “supported Tri-State’s efforts to market the permit to other utilities.”

Apparently, no other utilities were interested.

The Sunflower Electric announcement comes on the heels of a Reuters news report that coal-fired plants shut down at the second-fastest pace on record last year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 16, 2020, 11:51:48 PM

What kills me about these articles about energy from the Midwest news sites is how they emphasize that wind and solar are subsidized even though coal (and gas, as well as nuclear) are, too.... If they were all unsubsidized, wind and solar would still be most cost-effective and energy efficiency programs are still even more cost-effective (from simple LED lighting upgrades to advanced energy management systems).

Kansas like much of the Great Plains is part of this independent system operator called SPP (Southwest Power Pool, even though it basically covers the old Big 8 states ironically). As that region has implement more wind generation they've had some increased challenges to keep their grid balanced, to be sure, but that just makes gas even more economical because it's much more flexible than coal). That said, they are building out more transmission infrastructure like Texas has already done, so that should mitigate those constraints.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on January 17, 2020, 07:52:41 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on January 16, 2020, 11:51:48 PM

What kills me about these articles about energy from the Midwest news sites is how they emphasize that wind and solar are subsidized even though coal (and gas, as well as nuclear) are, too.... If they were all unsubsidized, wind and solar would still be most cost-effective and energy efficiency programs are still even more cost-effective (from simple LED lighting upgrades to advanced energy management systems).

Kansas like much of the Great Plains is part of this independent system operator called SPP (Southwest Power Pool, even though it basically covers the old Big 8 states ironically). As that region has implement more wind generation they've had some increased challenges to keep their grid balanced, to be sure, but that just makes gas even more economical because it's much more flexible than coal). That said, they are building out more transmission infrastructure like Texas has already done, so that should mitigate those constraints.

I was not aware that coal, gas nuclear are being subsidized. Can you share this information? I am curious as to what level of subsidies each of these receive. If you have access and could share that information, that would be fantastic. Thanks! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 17, 2020, 01:23:56 PM

Here are just a few links about how the whole energy industry is subsidized:

https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-fossil-fuel-subsidies-a-closer-look-at-tax-breaks-and-societal-costs (https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-fossil-fuel-subsidies-a-closer-look-at-tax-breaks-and-societal-costs)
https://www.votwitter.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/6/16428458/us-energy-coal-oil-subsidies (https://www.votwitter.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/6/16428458/us-energy-coal-oil-subsidies)
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/ (https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2020, 07:55:50 PM

The Telegraph


Wind farms built to tackle climate change could be final nail in coffin for seabirds, RSPB warns


(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2020/01/15/TELEMMGLPICT000220076078_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bqxx-aMjhNEyvNcPOg7e3c1Ikztr2GgwaPkPbaHxRda2w.jpeg?imwidth=450)
Razorbills are among the birds at risk from offshore wind CREDIT:  PETER CAIRNS/THE WILDLIFE TRUSTS/PA

•  Helena Horton (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/helena-horton/)

15 JANUARY 2020 • 11:59PM
Follow 
Wind farms built to tackle climate change could be the "final nail in the coffin" for sea birds, the RSPB has warned as it publishes a new report into their feeding hotspots.
The UK is a globally crucial place for these birds, as it contains 8 million breeding pairs. They are in fast decline - seabirds have faced a 70 per cent drop worldwide since the 1970s, and numbers continue to fall.
When the birds feed, they fly out to sea to find food sources such as sandeels. The RSPB has tracked over 1,000 of Britain's four most threatened bird species — kittiwakes, guillemots, razorbills and shags — and found they feed at certain "hotspots". Many of these are sandbanks where small fish are found - which happen to be the places developers find it easier to build offshore wind turbines.
The new research, published in the journal Biological Conservation, found that the hotspots are bigger than all the Special Protection Areas in the UK, where human activity on bird life is curbed. 
It has also identified areas in which the building of infrastructure including wind farms should be banned, the RSPB said.

(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2020/01/15/TELEMMGLPICT000198638901_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQfy2dmClwgbjjulYfPTELibA.jpeg?imwidth=480)
Guillemots are in decline CREDIT: BEN BIRCHALL/PA WIRE
Gareth Cunningham, the bird charity's chief marine policy officer, told The Telegraph: "We are in the middle of the climate emergency and one of the methods for addressing that is offshore wind. Currently there's very little monitoring done on offshore wind farms.
"Wind farms need to be built where the sea is fairly shallow, sometimes this means they are built on areas which are meant for foraging.
"The new data shows where birds go so we need to not put offshore wind in these hotspots. We need environmentally sensible installations. We have a biodiversity emergency — we don't want to make this worse while tackling climate emergency. We need to deal with climate change but we need to make sure the measures we take to address climate change aren't the final nail in the coffin for seabirds."
Wind farms can harm these little birds because collision with the blades can cause death as they try to fly to their feeding spots. Even the birds which wisely dodge the structures are harmed; they are forced to take large detours, putting chicks at risk of starvation as they wait for their parents to return.

(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2020/01/15/TELEMMGLPICT000220104908_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQfy2dmClwgbjjulYfPTELibA.jpeg?imwidth=480)
Kittiwake chicks waiting for their parents to return CREDIT: NATALIE RANCE/THE WILDLIFE TRUST/ PA



Dr Ian Cleasby, lead author of the research, said: “The sight and sound of hundreds of thousands of seabirds flocking to our shores is an amazing natural spectacle and something that we must help protect for future generations to enjoy. The results from this research provides better evidence that allows us to identify important areas of sea that should be part of protected areas and help to improve how we plan for development at sea to reduce conflicts between the needs of our seabirds and human activities at sea”
This comes as the government commits to a Seabird Conservation Strategy, to be published in December 2020, and has designated new Special Protection Areas for terns in the Solent  (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/560627/solent-dorset-boundary-map.pdf) and near Middlesbrough  (https://consult.defra.gov.uk/natural-england-marine/teesmouth-and-cleveland-coast-potential-sp/supporting_documents/Teesmouth and Cleveland Coast pSPA Extension Site Map.jpg).
These new areas will protect the birds from human activity, such as fishing or outdoor recreation. The new and extended locations join 47 existing sites in English waters.
Environment Minister Rebecca Pow said: "As the devastating impacts of climate change are only too visible, it is vital that we take decisive steps now that make a real difference to help protect our wildlife and allow vulnerable species to recover.
"We have already protected important nesting sites for seabirds, such as the little tern, and these new and additional protections to their feeding grounds, together with the development of a new strategy to protect our seabirds, will help the coastal environment recover, develop and, importantly, thrive."
Tony Juniper, Natural England Chair, added:  "Many of Britain’s sea and shorebird populations are globally important and for that reason we have a particular responsibility to protect and enhance them. I am delighted that, following an extensive evidence-based assessment by Natural England, these new areas, confirmed today by Government, will help to do that. They will ensure that species of conservation concern, such as terns and waders, have access to secure food sources, including during their critical annual breeding seasons."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2020, 08:48:44 AM

today in the great white north.... A mix of clouds and sun with gusty winds. High around 10F. Winds NW at 25 to 35 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2020, 10:36:26 AM

 24 deg. last nite and got 4-5" snow/ice now 36 turning to rain and high of 45,may not even have to plow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2020, 10:44:53 AM

I suppose we got about 8 inches of white stuff with some freezing drizzle on top

the snowblower really throws the stuff with a 30 mph wind helping

neighbor to the east might not appreciate it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2020, 11:09:16 AM

It got down to a low in the 30s two nights ago here. 


High of 71 expected today and sunny. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2020, 11:24:16 AM

weather sucks, I'm going to the bar to drink and watch hoops

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2020, 02:00:14 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 18, 2020, 11:24:16 AM

weather sucks, I'm going to the bar to drink and watch hoops

I'm building a fence so I'll have to DVR the Purdue game about to start until later ... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 20, 2020, 08:46:13 AM

Our weather a bit south of Sarasota was perfect for baseball, up in the 80s every day, hot the first two days in fact.  It was 25°F here this AM.  I see Paris is drizzly and chilly.  Yuck.

Here it's sunny at least.  Some group is over in the park banging drums.

We had guys from Maine and Vermont and Ohio and Michigan and North Dakota and Colorado at  camp.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 20, 2020, 09:33:35 AM

Got about 3-4 "s more lite/fluffy stuff still in the mid 20s.Old Man Winter pulling up a chair this week and getting reaquainted 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2020, 09:38:51 AM

as Warren Zevon says in Poor, Poor, Pitiful Me, "I don't want to talk about it."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 20, 2020, 12:16:52 PM

An interesting observation for me is to compare what scientists write about CC and what one reads in the popular media.  Scientists of course are all about "doubt" and "probability" and "uncertainty".  The media distill this down, generally speaking, to absolutes, certainty, "97% of scientists agree" (with what?).

I understand the general public doesn't deal well with probability and statistics in general.  So, the messages are basically akin to "If you text and drive, you will DIE!!!!".  The public fears things that are almost non-issues for epidemiologists.  I once saw a list of "risk factors" that the general public had ranked almost the reverse of the actual statistical risk, like "living within 20 miles of a nuclear power plant" was top ten for the public, and near last for epidemiologists.

The GP ignores, largely the dangers of obesity, smoking (this has changed over a long time), drinking,and other rather hazardous practices and worries about gluten free and organic and whatever else, while watching TV 8 hours a day, or sitting mired on their computer or device.

Huh.

I did go to the gym earlier, did a lot of stretching, still a bit sore.  Anyway.  "We" don't deal well with long term threats, things that appear to be "far off", Social Security, the national debt, climate change, ... because there is pain TODAY in return for perhaps less pain in 25 years or so.  We don't lose weight because we like ribs and French fries and cake and ice cream and we'll go to the gym tomorrow, maybe, and then we don't see much impact of course except some soreness.

So, we resort to some miracle pill or diet or horse crappola of whatever ilk.  I'm lazy too.  I really have to work to get off my derrier.  Thinking about baseball is enormously helpful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2020, 12:53:34 PM

everyone has to find their motivation

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 20, 2020, 03:47:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 20, 2020, 12:16:52 PM

I understand the general public doesn't deal well with probability and statistics in general.  So, the messages are basically akin to "If you text and drive, you will DIE!!!!".  The public fears things that are almost non-issues for epidemiologists.  I once saw a list of "risk factors" that the general public had ranked almost the reverse of the actual statistical risk, like "living within 20 miles of a nuclear power plant" was top ten for the public, and near last for epidemiologists.

I think a lot of it is the illusion of control. People don't fear driving, even though it's statistically a very dangerous activity, because they think they're in control. Even true of texting and driving... The deaths only happen to "someone else" because I *know* I'm paying enough attention even though I look at my phone every 100 feet, right? They fear airline flights, because they're just a passenger and they have no control, even though per-mile fatality rates of airline travel are far lower than driving. 

Quote

The GP ignores, largely the dangers of obesity, smoking (this has changed over a long time), drinking,and other rather hazardous practices and worries about gluten free and organic and whatever else, while watching TV 8 hours a day, or sitting mired on their computer or device.

Again, control, as well as hypocrisy. We all know obesity is bad. But bacon tastes good. Pork chops taste good. And working out is hard. So we rationalize that extra serving of dinner while we rationalize why today is just a bad day to go to the gym. And then, lo and behold, we get fat. The same is true of any mind-altering substance, like nicotine or alcohol or drugs. We reprogram our brains to rationalize why doing something we know is bad is okay.

We all like to believe that we're rational creatures, sort of super-robots with free will. But in reality, we're still animals, and have animal urges that often act BEFORE our brains engage, so we do things we shouldn't and rationalize it after the fact.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 20, 2020, 03:49:13 PM

Illusion of control, no doubt part of it.  There is also an illusion that SOMEONE ELSE will DO SOMETHING if I "sign this" document urging them to DO SOMETHING.

We live a life of illusions.  I have the illusion that some year the Dawgs will actually win the NC.  Shirley.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 23, 2020, 12:26:22 PM

It’s estimated that by 2050, nearly 60% of all new car sales in the U.S. will be electric vehicles (EVs). Each year, automakers offer more EV models - many of which surpass 150 miles on a single charge - and studies show most U.S. consumers like the environmental benefits of this new technology. However, price and concern over the availability of chargers along interstates and highways continues to deter buyers.

To remove some of these barriers, MidAmerican Energy has launched a first-of-its kind effort in Iowa to establish a network of DC fast-charging stations in rural and urban communities. A DC fast-charger, also called a “Level 3” charger, can generally charge an electric vehicle in 20-45 minutes.

We are now reviewing applications from businesses and community entities in targeted areas that are interested in hosting charging facilities that MidAmerican Energy will purchase, install and maintain. Charging station sites will be approximately 50 miles away from each other to address the range anxiety for customers and ultimately jump-start the growth of Iowa’s electric vehicle industry. See targeted locations and additional qualifications below.


(https://www.midamericanenergy.com/media/images/dcfastchargemap)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2020, 09:20:08 AM

Using the latest satellite technology from the European Space Agency (ESA), scientists from the University of Bristol have been tracking patterns of mass loss from Pine Island—Antarctica's largest glacier.


They found that the pattern of thinning is evolving in complex ways both in space and time with thinning rates now highest along the slow-flow margins of the glacier, while rates in the fast-flowing central trunk have decreased by about a factor of five since 2007. This is the opposite of what was observed prior to 2010.

Pine Island has contributed more to sea level rise over the past four decades than any other glacier in Antarctica, and as a consequence has become one of its most intensively and extensively investigated ice stream systems.

However, different model projections of future mass loss give conflicting results; some suggesting mass loss could dramatically increase over the next few decades, resulting in a rapidly growing contribution to sea level, while others indicate a more moderate response.


https://phys.org/news/2020-01-patterns-thinning-antarctica-biggest-glacier.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-01-patterns-thinning-antarctica-biggest-glacier.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 29, 2020, 07:52:45 PM

Mass Timber, Not Steel, Is the Future of Construction
Save your Great Chicago Fire takes.
(https://hips.hearstapps.com/rover/profile_photos/a22690a4-8f27-4d35-88eb-eee99009129c_1572980876.png?fill=1:1&resize=80:*)
By Caroline Delbert (https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/224127/caroline-delbert/)
Jan 28, 2020

(https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/images/rbt-hero-2880x1200-1580243839.jpg?crop=0.834xw:1.00xh;0.105xw,0&resize=480:*)
PERKINS & WILL

• Fire-blocking mass timber construction (https://www.fastcompany.com/90456328/building-with-timber-instead-of-steel-could-help-pull-millions-of-tons-of-carbon-from-the-atmosphere) could bring millions of pounds of carbon absorption to cities around the world.
• Wooden skyscraper designs are trendy around the world (https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/news/a20414/the-skyscraper-of-the-future-is-made-of-wood/) and reflect changing attitudes about wood construction.
• Making construction-grade timber can also cost less in carbon emissions than concrete and steel.

---

Could fire-blocking timber construction (https://www.fastcompany.com/90456328/building-with-timber-instead-of-steel-could-help-pull-millions-of-tons-of-carbon-from-the-atmosphere) be part of the carbon-neutral city of the future? Scientists from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research think so. In a new paper, they argue that timber construction could become a critical carbon sink in cities around the world, acting in much the same way that trees do. Researchers say that the “mass timber” style of construction is fundamentally fire-safe, and other groups around the world continue to work on making truly non-combustible wood products to completely put the issue to bed.
If a building is made with a solid wooden structure, it isn’t consumed by fire the same way plywood is, for example. Plywood has flammable glue, making it more vulnerable than solid wood. Medium density fiberboard (MDF) and oriented strand board (OSB) are both also pretty flammable. But solid wood tends to burn on the outside while the inside remains untouched, like trying to start a campfire by throwing in only solid logs.
Mass timber code is different from light wood frame construction, where the very thin pieces of wood, like structural 2x4s (https://www.popularmechanics.com/home/how-to-plans/a30382288/pop-mech-challenge-2x4/), are also vulnerable to fire. Large, structural pieces of mass timber are made from putting together solid wood boards together to make walls and other components. “[T]he International Building Code developed by the International Code Council, which is the base for most jurisdictions in the U.S., was recently updated to recognize mass timber as ‘acceptable for fire blocking,’” Fast Company says (https://www.fastcompany.com/90456328/building-with-timber-instead-of-steel-could-help-pull-millions-of-tons-of-carbon-from-the-atmosphere).

Time -0:11

That means fire-safe mass timber is a great candidate for construction—and researchers say its ability to absorb carbon makes it not just attractive but important to the city of the future. Once a comprehensive new building code for mass timber is in place, even an increase to 10 percent mass timber construction (with the rest as status quo concrete and steel) would create a carbon sink of 10 million tons of absorbed carbon per year.

The researchers emphasize that their model relies on sustainable forestry only, and they say two thirds of the countries they studied for this paper already have a surplus of lumber compared with minimum sustainable levels. And there’s a second way mass timber construction can impact emissions: Both concrete and steel generate giant amounts of carbon emissions, and the construction industry overall makes up 30 percent (https://www.metsawood.com/global/news-media/articles/Pages/carbon-storage.aspx) of annual greenhouse gases. Making concrete requires extremely high heat, and so does making steel. Both could shift to cleaner fuels like hydrogen in the future, but wood is cleaner today.
In Chicago, architects have proposed a wooden skyscraper 80 stories tall, the River Beech Tower (https://www.constructiondive.com/news/perkinswill-proposes-80-story-timber-tower-for-chicago/428350/), which is just one of a wave of proposed and planned wooden skyscrapers around the world. It follows an award-winning 2013 idea for a 30-story tower named, uh, Big Wood. But wood is lighter, easier to work with in many ways, and more insulating (https://theweek.com/articles/816653/how-build-skyscraper-wood)—so really, big wood could be right around the corner.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2020, 02:44:10 AM

Hydrogen is an means of storing energy, not producing it.  Aside from fusion of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2020, 05:44:05 AM

Weather here is miserable, rarely any sun, drizzling right now, depressing.

Cold with sun is not bad for me, but minimal sun for weeks is very bad.

Wish I were home.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2020, 02:12:49 PM

I'm home

rarely see the sun, much drizzle and some snow

I wish I were in Atlanta

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 30, 2020, 04:27:31 PM

71 with sun and [mostly] blue skies here right now. 

I had to go to a customer visit in San Diego this morning, and I couldn't take the Jeep because 2+ hours of highway driving might have given me sunburn :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2020, 07:02:34 AM

https://beinglibertarian.com/global-cooling-alarmism-doesnt-disprove-climate-change-freedom-philosophy/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 01, 2020, 10:12:38 AM

I swear we have had the same day (Hi/Lo) for a week straight,   39/29 and clouds.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2020, 10:30:33 AM

36. No sun in about 2 weeks. A little rain/snow here and there. Looking forward to the exit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2020, 05:13:01 PM

Always funny to see all the SoCal natives who bundle up like it's Siberia when it's about 58 degrees. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 03, 2020, 05:24:26 PM

Hell it won't hit 58 here until after openeing day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2020, 12:21:52 AM

Still miserable here, dreary.  Atlanta has been sunny and nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 04, 2020, 05:09:20 AM

Columbus has been in the 60s and 70s. Pretty good for February.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on February 04, 2020, 07:25:17 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 04, 2020, 05:09:20 AM

Columbus has been in the 60s and 70s. Pretty good for February.

If this is global warming then bring it on. :93:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 04, 2020, 07:59:28 AM

Gather thy aerosol cans.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 04, 2020, 01:17:29 PM

I think the TSLA discussion was in this thread, right?

I'm astounded by what their stock is doing... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on February 04, 2020, 01:31:58 PM

It was the dreariest January in the Twin Cities since records began, and February isn't starting much better. The sun has only been seen twice in 3 weeks. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on February 04, 2020, 01:48:41 PM

Yesterday was in the 70s, today will top out in the 40s, and we're supposed to get a big snow tonight with tomorrow's lows in the teens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2020, 03:14:00 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on February 04, 2020, 01:31:58 PM

It was the dreariest January in the Twin Cities since records began, and February isn't starting much better. The sun has only been seen twice in 3 weeks.

Same here, pretty much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 04, 2020, 03:19:37 PM

Really mild January down here.  Lots of sunshine, lots of temps in the 60s and 70s.  It's 77 now, and it hit 81 on Superbowl Sunday.

Cold weather and possible snow/sleet tonight though in parts of the Hill Country out west of town.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2020, 03:35:28 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on February 04, 2020, 01:17:29 PM

I think the TSLA discussion was in this thread, right?

I'm astounded by what their stock is doing...

Moi Aussi.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2020, 07:22:33 PM

https://www.inverse.com/innovation/researchers-have-a-counterintuitive-concept-for-solar-panels-that-work-at-night (https://www.inverse.com/innovation/researchers-have-a-counterintuitive-concept-for-solar-panels-that-work-at-night)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on February 05, 2020, 09:59:53 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on February 04, 2020, 01:17:29 PM

I think the TSLA discussion was in this thread, right?

I'm astounded by what their stock is doing...

yes it was. I believe you were one of the people who were saying they were going bankrupt and the stock was going to 0. I got in on Tesla when it dropped to 174. Never thought it would go to 900, but knew it was an undervalued stock with nowhere to go but up.

The stock was jump started by retail investors and the reason it went so sky high crazy the past week was because of all the shorts covering (remember it was the most heavily shorted stock out there) and all of the top 1000 institutional investors jumping in on the fear of missing out.

GREAT company that makes GREAT products, Elon Musk is a freakin' genius and I'm holding on for the long-term because I really believe in the product and at the end of the day it's all about the product- but even I was shocked by where it went. No way it's worth $900 or even close to that at the moment- and that's why you saw it come back down to $730 today after spiking to $900+ yesterday. It will be worth that someday though. Not for awhile. They still have lot of work to do and lot of growth to accomplish before it gets there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2020, 11:58:35 AM

The European power sector emitted 12 percent less carbon dioxide in 2019 than during the prior year, suggesting the continent has sped up its shift away from fossil fuel energy sources. During the same period, the share of energy from renewables increased to almost 35 percent, according to a new report by two European climate think-tanks.

According to the findings, published Wednesday in a joint report by Agora Energiewende in Germany and Sandbag in the United Kingdom, emissions fell last year by 120 million tonnes. Power generation from hard coal declined in every European Union country and sank by 24 percent overall.


https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/eu-power-sector-emissions-drop-coal-collapses-europe-200205222402274.html (https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/eu-power-sector-emissions-drop-coal-collapses-europe-200205222402274.html)

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ftitle%3DEU+power+sector+emissions+drop+as+coal+collapses+across+Europe%5Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fmritems%2Fimagecache%2Fmbdxxlarge%2Fmritems%2FImages%2F2020%2F2%2F5%2F3658ddd2b7d842a9be98662485ce23ba_18.jpg&hash=250bd8f4871afcd03dd4890219d749c2)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2020, 12:29:33 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on February 05, 2020, 09:59:53 PM

yes it was. I believe you were one of the people who were saying they were going bankrupt and the stock was going to 0. I got in on Tesla when it dropped to 174. Never thought it would go to 900, but knew it was an undervalued stock with nowhere to go but up.

Yep, that was me. I do think the company still has significant risk. I think they're over-extended, over-leveraged, and still not consistently profitable. Even now, their net profit is buoyed by sales of regulatory credits, and not driven organically from auto margins. Now, to some extent that's acceptable in a growth company, as they need to spend a lot of money to scale up. 

That said, where I thought there was significant short-term risk of an implosion in early 2019, I think that risk has passed. The capital raise in May helped significantly, and actually getting the China factory functional without significant delays will help as well. 

Quote

GREAT company that makes GREAT products, Elon Musk is a freakin' genius and I'm holding on for the long-term because I really believe in the product and at the end of the day it's all about the product- but even I was shocked by where it went. No way it's worth $900 or even close to that at the moment- and that's why you saw it come back down to $730 today after spiking to $900+ yesterday. It will be worth that someday though. Not for awhile. They still have lot of work to do and lot of growth to accomplish before it gets there.

I could point you to lists and lists of companies that had great products and first mover advantage that failed to scale up and capitalize against incumbents. Some failed when the incumbents woke up. Some were lagging and acquired by the incumbents when they hit trouble. A few managed to get acquired at their peaks and made their founders uber-rich. And far fewer manage to become standalone successes alongside those incumbents. 

I still think, regardless of their success of their current products, that there's a long road, full of a lot of potential potholes, ahead of Tesla. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2020, 10:02:37 AM

It's been 25-35 last two days with rain turning to sleet turning to snow,Suppose to go on and off thru sunday with lows in the teens.Kinda cheerful though with the brightness of the snow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2020, 11:11:02 AM

I saw quite a few wind turbines today between Chartres and Orleans.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 10:04:19 PM

Study: EV Winter Range Loss Averages 19%

The Norwegian Automobile Federation put 20 EVs head to head in freezing temperatures.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a31898441/study-ev-winter-range-loss-averages-19/ (https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a31898441/study-ev-winter-range-loss-averages-19/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 24, 2020, 10:45:51 PM

Like the auto industry as a whole, EV manufacturing is kind of on hold right now.

Tesla is still trying to improve its battery performance*, but there are other battery chemistries besides Lithium Ion in the works that are / could be denser, safer, charge faster and/or even become cheaper. Time will tell which ones get commercialized. That said, the only range issue at this point is for long-distance trips. For commuting and local trips it's not an issue.

*https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tesla-Plans-To-Ditch-Cobalt-In-New-Batteries.html (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tesla-Plans-To-Ditch-Cobalt-In-New-Batteries.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2020, 11:43:53 PM

Is the recharging station thing really going to be the way forward?  I can't shake an ultra-smooth propane tank-type thing.
.
You park, someone or a machine removes your easily-removable battery and immediately replaces it with a new one, after you've swiped your card.  Your drained battery goes to the end of the mobile charging station to be used to replaced another car's batter later, when it's charged.  
.
Crazy?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 25, 2020, 12:51:29 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2020, 11:43:53 PM

Is the recharging station thing really going to be the way forward?  I can't shake an ultra-smooth propane tank-type thing.
.
You park, someone or a machine removes your easily-removable battery and immediately replaces it with a new one, after you've swiped your card.  Your drained battery goes to the end of the mobile charging station to be used to replaced another car's batter later, when it's charged. 
.
Crazy?

That could become somewhat common for small - midsize commercial / governmental vehicles (eg. delivery trucks, buses, ambulances) but I doubt it for personal vehicles that will simply be charged each night. Fast-charging technology will eventually improve for long-distance travel, though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 25, 2020, 01:04:37 AM

I'm not sure how common this is, but I believe Phoenix is about to get to April 1st with no days at 90+ degrees.  It's weird weather here, for sure.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 25, 2020, 07:04:49 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 25, 2020, 01:04:37 AM

I'm not sure how common this is, but I believe Phoenix is about to get to April 1st with no days at 90+ degrees.  It's weird weather here, for sure. 

That is why the narrative has changed from Global Warming to Global Climate Change. 

From an article I read about a month or so ago, the Sun is entering a 7 year period of a Solar Minimum meaning that the Earths temps are expected to cool. Therefore the hucksters trying to scam us on the climate will not be able to claim the Earth is heating, so they have changed their claim to the Climate is unstable and changing....just like it has done since the Earth had a climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 07:30:16 AM

^^^^

Early nomination for post of the year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 08:23:53 AM

The term "climate change" is not some nefarious plot to fool anyone.  There was a  theory that the Atlantic "conveyor" for example might collapse and make Europe much colder than normal.  This theory was largely put to rest, but it's an example of how some parts of the climate could cool while most of it warms.  The term also encompasses weather changes not directly related to warming trends, like droughts.

It's simple a better term for what is projected to happen.

As for sun cycles, there is debate about what is happening as the solar maximum last time around was lower than normal.  During the "Little Ice Age" the sun spot activity was unusually low (the Maunder Minimum) leading SOME to speculate that we may be entering another cooling period of that ilk.   I've also read that parts of the planet were not cooler than normal circa 1550-1850, only the northern hemisphere.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 08:36:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 08:23:53 AM

The term "climate change" is not some nefarious plot to fool anyone.    

I have questions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 08:40:13 AM

I have a ton of answers, they may be the wrong answers to the wrong questions, but I can make BS up with the best of them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 10:15:47 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 25, 2020, 01:04:37 AM

I'm not sure how common this is, but I believe Phoenix is about to get to April 1st with no days at 90+ degrees.  It's weird weather here, for sure. 

It's rained here basically every day for the last two weeks. Even though California's "rainy season" is ongoing, this is unusual. We're already nearly at twice our monthly average of precipitation for March.

Unfortunately, we were incredibly dry for both January and February, so we're still running about 2 inches of rainfall behind our full seasonal average. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 10:52:20 AM

The weather here right now is near perfect, partly cloudy, 72°F, light breeze.  We'll be out for a walk for sure.  I'd love to walk to Ponce City Market for some oysters, but I'm sure they are completely closed.  Part of why we moved here was the variety of restaurants in walking distance.

The wife tells me that our Parisian cousins are amazed at how clear the air is and how quiet the city is, they can hear birds singing.  I suspect this MAY lead to some substantive changes in some cities, especially those with serious air pollution issues.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2020, 11:00:30 AM

Elon Musk praised Tesla’s team for the Model Y’s heat pump — a feature that could make the electric SUV much more efficient in colder climates.

https://electrek.co/2020/03/23/tesla-model-y-heat-pump-elon-musk-best-engineering/ (https://electrek.co/2020/03/23/tesla-model-y-heat-pump-elon-musk-best-engineering/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 11:08:47 AM

Every newer car today has a heat pump in it.

Incidentally, I am having to replace one of ours now.  It's an water sourced heat pump and ours is having issues.  The guy said it would be three weeks to get one delivered and it's been a week and he has it.  It pumps heat into or out of water supplied by the building, which is more efficient than air heat pumps of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2020, 11:11:35 AM

I'm guessing the water is cooled or heated by geothermal wells under the building - probably at least 125 foot deep

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 11:16:32 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 25, 2020, 11:11:35 AM

I'm guessing the water is cooled or heated by geothermal wells under the building - probably at least 125 foot deep

No, the water passes through an evaporator on the roof and gets recycled.  In winter, they bypass the roof because the various heat pumps cool the water.

This is how taller buildings provide heat and AC without having huge vents or separate units.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 25, 2020, 12:21:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 08:23:53 AM

The term "climate change" is not some nefarious plot to fool anyone.  

It may or may not be. But it is being used by some to panic the uniformed about an issue in which mankind as very little to no ability to affect. Sending money to Al Gore or his cronies, will not help stabilize the Earths climate. The Earths climate is dependent upon the Sun and has been in a constant state of change since the Earth had a climate. Hence the lack of the Mile Thick sheet of ice in the same spot that I now occupy, but was present some 10,000 years ago.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 12:25:55 PM

The nature of Malinkovitch Cycles is reasonably well understood, and not related to Climate Change as it pertains to CO2 levels.

I certainly could not assert with any certainty that the increase of CO2 from 280 to 410 ppm cannot have a significant impact on our climate.  It makes sense to me that it would have an impact.  We may not be able to model that impact very well, a thing Judith Curry points out in her postings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 01:25:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 12:25:55 PM

The nature of Malinkovitch Cycles is reasonably well understood, and not related to Climate Change as it pertains to CO2 levels.

I certainly could not assert with any certainty that the increase of CO2 from 280 to 410 ppm cannot have a significant impact on our climate.  It makes sense to me that it would have an impact.  We may not be able to model that impact very well, a thing Judith Curry points out in her postings.

I've posted this before, but remember that all of the global warming / climate change stuff relies on several interrelated points:

• The earth is in a warming trend.
• CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
• Some portion of the warming of the last century and a half is due to CO2.
• Warming is bad for humanity.
• The "CO2 forcing / climate sensitivity" numbers are high enough that the Earth will warm enough to have significant / catastrophic negative effects.
• The technology and economics exist such that is capable to do something about it on a global basis.
• The cost of doing something now is a better economic trade-off than trying to use economic growth to mitigate the worst effects of it down the road.

No credible skeptic argues with #1-3. Anyone who argues those points, IMHO, is simply spouting nonsense that is completely unsupported by science.

There may be some legitimate debate on #3, based on HOW much of that warming trend is CO2 related and how much is related to the sun, the fact that we were coming out of a minimum already, and the earth was probably going to naturally warm between then and now. 

All of the major points of contention are #4+. Is warming bad for humanity? How bad [how can we quantify it in human life and economic terms]? How much warming will there be [what's the climate sensitivity number]? Can we effectively forestall the warming without destroying the engine of our global economy, which today is fossil fuels? 


As we see in another context right now, the question is at what point the cure is worse than the disease? And that's a really hard debate, because we have difficulty quantifying the potential harm, we have difficulty modeling the efficacy of our mitigations, and we start venturing into economics which is even more of a shaky science than climate modeling.

So when things get really complicated, does that mean people don't have an opinion? Of course not! This is America, dammit!

Hence the level of debate is dominated by people who don't realize they're perfect examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 01:28:48 PM

The sea level rise would be problematic, aside from warming, if it reaches a meter by 2100.  Melting of permafrost could be very problematic.  Other climate impacts would be more of a local nature. For example, a lot of folks depend on glacial melt for fresh water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 25, 2020, 02:15:33 PM

#6 and #7 shouldn't even be debatable at this point, either.

Significant parts of the solution to decarbonizing society are already cost-effective and in many ways superior technologies.

In electricity wind and solar get the most attention, but it's also all of the energy efficiency upgrades from LED lighting to advanced energy management systems. That's why wind technicians and solar installers are the two fastest growing jobs in the country, while jobs in coal, oil & gas are in decline.

I'm a bit skeptical on small nuclear reactors, but they're going to deployed to some extent to test them out at some point. Different energy storage technologies are being commercialized with more on the way. Other technologies in the works, as well.

In transportation, electrification is the main change right now, but hydrogen is what's probably going to be the solution for shipping, freight, and eventually air travel.

The industrial sector is more difficult. Using hydrogen and carbon capture is probably part of the answer. Replacing plastics with other materials is part of it. Figuring out ways to reduce/reuse/repurpose waste is part of it.

How the aftermath of the pandemic affects society will be interesting, as well. Does business travel and demand for office space decline as remote working becomes more commonplace and widely adopted? Does the education sector become more online-oriented, as well? That remains to be seen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 02:19:08 PM

Those are all potential solutions, but in my view, they simply are not going to happen nearly fast enough, no matter who is in office here.

As for replacing plastics, I've been on that path for some period of time and the problems are daunting.  Really daunting.  Enormous.  And one can read all sorts of rosey eyed scenarios over time that turned to bunk for rather simple reasons.  It was an interesting experience though, both technically and "socially".

Polyethylene is amazing stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 06:39:14 PM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbhqHCqjoZ0&t=6s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 06:48:35 PM

Let's see if humanity makes it another 100.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 07:34:56 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on March 25, 2020, 06:48:35 PM

Let's see if humanity makes it another 100.

We will, if the CCP goes away.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2020, 09:51:38 AM

Researchers at the University of Southampton have transformed optical fibers into photocatalytic microreactors that convert water into hydrogen fuel using solar energy.

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-photocatalytic-optical-fibers-solar-fuel.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-04-photocatalytic-optical-fibers-solar-fuel.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 10:02:46 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 07:34:56 PM

We will, if the CCP goes away.

What is the CCP?at 1st I was thinking the Chinese Communist Party

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 03:00:58 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 10:02:46 AM

What is the CCP?at 1st I was thinking the Chinese Communist Party

I think it's the Chinese Communist Party.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 03:36:20 PM

Weather has been pleasant the last two days 50-60s.Spokesman for the CCP are to be believed more than any of N.E. Ohio's meteorologists

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 03:54:12 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 03:36:20 PM

Weather has been pleasant the last two days 50-60s.Spokesman for the CCP are to be believed more than any of N.E. Ohio's meteorologists

30s-40s here in NE Oklahoma the last two days.  How 'bout that!?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 04, 2020, 04:48:25 PM

Mowed  the lawn, cleaned the floors, and went fishing.  Kids crushed the bluegill.  Getting nippy now.  North winds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 09:50:01 PM

Popular Mechanics[/color]
Ground-Up Tire Pavement Could Be Safer for Pedestrians and Athletes
This is where the rubber is the road.
BY CAROLINE DELBERT (https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/224127/caroline-delbert/)
APR 2, 2020

(https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/images/numbered-track-lanes-at-municipal-track-in-rumford-royalty-free-image-1585754096.jpg?crop=0.752xw:1.00xh;0.119xw,0&resize=480:*)CAPPI THOMPSONGETTY IMAGES

• A new pavement made with 60 percent recycled tires (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-bouncy-durable-rubber-pavements-thousands.html) could save thousands of people who die from falls each year.
• The U.S. alone produces nearly 250 million (https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a22553570/waste-tires/) (https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a22553570/waste-tires/) retired tires per year.
• Recycled rubber composites have been used on playgrounds and tracks for decades.

---

Could a bouncier and more forgiving pavement save lives? Researchers think so (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-bouncy-durable-rubber-pavements-thousands.html). A huge group of researchers from dozens of universities and companies belong to an overarching project called SAFERUP, which stands for (take a deep breath) Sustainable, Accessible, Safe, Resilient, and Smart Urban Pavements.
In a press release (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-bouncy-durable-rubber-pavements-thousands.html), the group shares a World Health Organization fact: “Falls are the second leading cause of accidental or unintentional injury deaths worldwide, with adults older than 65 years of age suffering the greatest number of fatal falls.” Some number of falls will always be inevitable, and the researchers say replacing traditional concrete or pavement materials with something more forgiving could turn many of these fatal flaws into survivable ones.
To make a softer pavement, researchers have combined the building blocks of pavement with a recycled material. Blacktop roads are made by pouring a mixture of small gravel and hot bitumen tar onto the surface and then pressing it flat using a steamroller. To that traditional mix of rocks and tar, scientists added 60 percent by volume of shredded rubber tires. Because tar is technically a liquid, although an extremely viscous and slow-moving one, it can support the “give” of the bouncy tire pieces.
Sound familiar? For those with kids or who have recently been kids themselves, the SAFERUP pavement concept might seem a lot like the recycled paving materials already used as flooring for playgrounds. In that context, the tire pieces are called crumb rubber (https://www.cpsc.gov/Safety-Education/Safety-Education-Centers/Crumb-Rubber-Safety-Information-Center), which is a small shred of recycled automotive tires with all the textile bits removed.
There’s no doubt crumb rubber-based coatings can help protect children at playgrounds, and many training gyms and running tracks use some kind of rubber or crumb rubber for its decreased wear and tear on bones and joints.
But for crumb rubber aggregate surfaces, families and communities have wondered for a long time about the chemical safety of using recycled tires. Since 2016, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) has been conducting an ongoing research project (https://www.cpsc.gov/Safety-Education/Safety-Education-Centers/Crumb-Rubber-Safety-Information-Center) to study the safety of the chemical makeup of recycled tire paving. The CPSC says its studies have not revealed any chemical danger or evidence of health problems from using these materials.

Certainly the situation is different for children, who put things in their mouths or pick up any loose bits to stick in their pockets. But even for them, studies show (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9217759) rubberized playground surfaces are safer in terms of injury than any other surface. In fact, in one study from the U.K., bark mulch didn’t protect children much better than simply concrete.
If the goal in making better surfaces is pure harm reduction, rubber surfaces have a track record of achieving that goal. The SAFERUP project says (https://site.unibo.it/saferup/en/home) its short-term goal is to train a new generation of pavers and other workers who will install and monitor these surfaces. The scientists envision safer pavements that also have sensors or other technology that will “notice” if people have fallen or there’s been a collision.
The benefit is twofold. Yes, protecting people who fall is a worthwhile goal in itself. "Thousands of lives could be saved by this pavement surface, both in the U.K. and other countries," participating researcher Viveca Wallqvist said in a statement. And if walking or cycling is made safer for people who are typically vulnerable to fall injury, researchers believe they’ll be more likely to get out and stay active.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 11:04:16 PM

This Plastic-Eating Caterpillar Could Be Key in Fighting an Environmental Menace
Plastic waste is a big problem...with a small solution?
BY DAISY HERNANDEZ (https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/220914/Daisy-Hernandez/)
MAR 8, 2020

(https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/images/waxworm-1583358259.jpg?crop=0.752xw:1.00xh;0.248xw,0&resize=480:*)FEDERICA BERTOCCHINI / PAOLO BOMBELLI / CHRIS HOWE

• A solution to the plastic pollution problem (https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/scientists-found-a-caterpillar-that-eats-plastic-could-it-help-solve-our) might exist within the eating habits and digestive machinations of Galleria mellonella, also known as the ‘great wax moth.’
• It was discovered—by accident—that these little guys have the ability to digest polyethylene, the most common type of plastic that's notoriously difficult to break down.
• Scientists are hoping that studying G. mellonella might provide insights that could lead to the development of tools and processes that can get rid of plastic pollutants.

---

It turns out mother nature may have a solution for our massive plastic waste problem. The answer? Galleria mellonella, more commonly known as the ‘great wax moth’ or the ‘honeycomb moth.’ What makes these little guys so special? G. mellonella larvae enjoy chowing down on polyethylene, the most common type of plastic which also happens to be incredibly difficult to breakdown.
In 2017, researchers accidentally discovered that wax worms had eaten holes through plastic bags in which they were being stored. Puzzled, Paolo Bombelli and Christopher Howe placed the critters on polyethylene film in a lab and observed them getting to work on the plastic. The results showed that 100 worms were able to ingest 92 milligrams of the material over a 12-hour period (https://go.redirectingat.com/?id=74968X1525083&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fd41586-017-00593-y&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.popularmechanics.com%2Fscience%2Fanimals%2Fa31229764%2Fcaterpillar-eats-plastic%2F%3Fpre%3Dscience%2Fanimals%2F%26prefix%3Da%26id%3D31229764%26del%3D%26variantId%3D%26post%3D%2Fcaterpillar-eats-plastic). While it’s not a massive amount, it’s still more than microbes are able to breakdown. What’s more, the caterpillars—sometimes called ‘plastivores’—actually digest the plastic allowing them to turn the material into energy.
“The answer may lie in the ecology of the wax worm itself. They feed on beeswax, and their natural niche is the honeycomb; the moth lays its eggs inside the beehive, where the worms grow to the pupa stage eating beeswax,” say (https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(17)30231-2) the study's authors. The results were published in the journal Current Biology.
Because beeswax is comprised of “a highly diverse mixture of lipid compounds,” the worms have adapted the ability to also break plastic down since some of those compounds are similar in their chemical makeup to polyethylene.
Researchers hope that this breakdown process can be analyzed and reproduced as a “biotechnological solution to managing polyethylene waste.”
Even if we wanted to use wax worms in the interim, they can only do so much. According to Discover, wax worms may help offer a solution but they themselves are not the answer. A group of 60 ravenous caterpillars can chomp through a piece of plastic the size of a matchbook. It's not a big solution, but it's a small start.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 06:39:56 AM

The problem with PE waste is entirely getting it to one place.  If that can be done, it can easily be managed.  Pure PE "waste" would be a resource if collected in one place in sufficient quantity reproducibly.  Any polymer is a bunch of molecules strung together, and above a certain temperature they will dissociate (ceiling temperature) if initiated.  Just as the small "mers" will join (polymerize), so they will also disjoin (depolymerize) back into the "mers".

And the stuff can be burned for energy if collected in a near pure state.  Collection however is an issue.  The bodies of milk jogs are PE, the cap however is PP.

We in the US collect "recyclables" mixed all together, and about the only thing pulled out of that stream is aluminum, the rest goes to landfill.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 08:47:13 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 09:50:01 PM

Popular Mechanics[/color]
Ground-Up Tire Pavement Could Be Safer for Pedestrians and Athletes
This is where the rubber is the road.
BY CAROLINE DELBERT (https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/224127/caroline-delbert/)
APR 2, 2020

(https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/images/numbered-track-lanes-at-municipal-track-in-rumford-royalty-free-image-1585754096.jpg?crop=0.752xw:1.00xh;0.119xw,0&resize=480:*)CAPPI THOMPSONGETTY IMAGES

• A new pavement made with 60 percent recycled tires (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-bouncy-durable-rubber-pavements-thousands.html) could save thousands of people who die from falls each year.
• The U.S. alone produces nearly 250 million (https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a22553570/waste-tires/) (https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a22553570/waste-tires/) retired tires per year.
• Recycled rubber composites have been used on playgrounds and tracks for decades.

---

Could a bouncier and more forgiving pavement save lives? Researchers think so (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-bouncy-durable-rubber-pavements-thousands.html). A huge group of researchers from dozens of universities and companies belong to an overarching project called SAFERUP, which stands for (take a deep breath) Sustainable, Accessible, Safe, Resilient, and Smart Urban Pavements.
In a press release (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-bouncy-durable-rubber-pavements-thousands.html), the group shares a World Health Organization fact: “Falls are the second leading cause of accidental or unintentional injury deaths worldwide, with adults older than 65 years of age suffering the greatest number of fatal falls.” Some number of falls will always be inevitable, and the researchers say replacing traditional concrete or pavement materials with something more forgiving could turn many of these fatal flaws into survivable ones.
To make a softer pavement, researchers have combined the building blocks of pavement with a recycled material. Blacktop roads are made by pouring a mixture of small gravel and hot bitumen tar onto the surface and then pressing it flat using a steamroller. To that traditional mix of rocks and tar, scientists added 60 percent by volume of shredded rubber tires. Because tar is technically a liquid, although an extremely viscous and slow-moving one, it can support the “give” of the bouncy tire pieces.
Sound familiar? For those with kids or who have recently been kids themselves, the SAFERUP pavement concept might seem a lot like the recycled paving materials already used as flooring for playgrounds. In that context, the tire pieces are called crumb rubber (https://www.cpsc.gov/Safety-Education/Safety-Education-Centers/Crumb-Rubber-Safety-Information-Center), which is a small shred of recycled automotive tires with all the textile bits removed.
There’s no doubt crumb rubber-based coatings can help protect children at playgrounds, and many training gyms and running tracks use some kind of rubber or crumb rubber for its decreased wear and tear on bones and joints.
But for crumb rubber aggregate surfaces, families and communities have wondered for a long time about the chemical safety of using recycled tires. Since 2016, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) has been conducting an ongoing research project (https://www.cpsc.gov/Safety-Education/Safety-Education-Centers/Crumb-Rubber-Safety-Information-Center) to study the safety of the chemical makeup of recycled tire paving. The CPSC says its studies have not revealed any chemical danger or evidence of health problems from using these materials.

Certainly the situation is different for children, who put things in their mouths or pick up any loose bits to stick in their pockets. But even for them, studies show (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9217759) rubberized playground surfaces are safer in terms of injury than any other surface. In fact, in one study from the U.K., bark mulch didn’t protect children much better than simply concrete.
If the goal in making better surfaces is pure harm reduction, rubber surfaces have a track record of achieving that goal. The SAFERUP project says (https://site.unibo.it/saferup/en/home) its short-term goal is to train a new generation of pavers and other workers who will install and monitor these surfaces. The scientists envision safer pavements that also have sensors or other technology that will “notice” if people have fallen or there’s been a collision.
The benefit is twofold. Yes, protecting people who fall is a worthwhile goal in itself. "Thousands of lives could be saved by this pavement surface, both in the U.K. and other countries," participating researcher Viveca Wallqvist said in a statement. And if walking or cycling is made safer for people who are typically vulnerable to fall injury, researchers believe they’ll be more likely to get out and stay active.

I'd like to know about the structural number of this type of pavement. How would it stand up to a Chicago winter, Arizona summer, salt, leaking antifreeze, acidic soils beneath it, etc. I think I'll do a little research on it and report back. I'm not much into pavement, but this is intriguing.

My first take, prior to research:

I think it could be useful for things like walking/bike paths and other light-duty uses. I can't see it on a street - not even the most lightly travelled ones.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 08:48:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 06:39:56 AM

We in the US collect "recyclables" mixed all together, and about the only thing pulled out of that stream is aluminum, the rest goes to landfill.

Got any numbers for glass?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 09:35:39 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 08:47:13 AM

I'd like to know about the structural number of this type of pavement. How would it stand up to a Chicago winter, Arizona summer, salt, leaking antifreeze, acidic soils beneath it, etc. I think I'll do a little research on it and report back. I'm not much into pavement, but this is intriguing.

My 1st take is it could stand the winter cold but plowing would make America's Funniest Videos.Be like dragging fish hooks across cork board.Salt and desert heat would be a problem.Paths and Track & Field surfaces it should work fine - gotta try

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 09:36:47 AM

If you source separate glass, it gets recycled.  Mixed MSW just doesn't pay enough to pull it out of the stream very often.

I've seen one of these lines, it was long ago, folks watch the stream go by on conveyor and try to pull off Al cans mostly, they have a bin for glass and some of it gets pulled out, most of it doesn't.  The plastic and paper goes to landfill.  There could be some places this is not true.

Last time I was in the business waste paper/cardboard had negative value.  If you can get it to the recycling plant source separated, it has some value.

Writing paper and newsprint have a rather high inorganic content of course, and that is waste.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 12:49:59 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 09:35:39 AM

My 1st take is it could stand the winter cold but plowing would make America's Funniest Videos.Be like dragging fish hooks across cork board.Salt and desert heat would be a problem.Paths and Track & Field surfaces it should work fine - gotta try

Desert heat. I was thinking about that. Rubber gets sticky, and very hot. So, you're walking across the street, and your rubber soled show sticks to the pavement. You fall down, and you get 3rd degree burns.


Just thinking, that's all. More thinking required, obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 12:54:10 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 08:47:13 AM

I think it could be useful for things like walking/bike paths and other light-duty uses. I can't see it on a street - not even the most lightly travelled ones.

I'm pretty sure it is not intended for a street.  

Some of the roads around here are concrete dating from maybe 1960 or so and are still in use, usually with a bit of patching.  Asphalt over concrete seems to break down faster than regular asphalt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2020, 01:21:30 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 12:54:10 PM

I'm pretty sure it is not intended for a street. 

Some of the roads around here are concrete dating from maybe 1960 or so and are still in use, usually with a bit of patching.  Asphalt over concrete seems to break down faster than regular asphalt.

Many of our freeways in SoCal are concrete. I'm sure it's worse for cars and tires, but it requires less maintenance. And for a place with traffic as bad as we have it here, any time the freeway needs to be maintained it's hell, so you do what you have to do...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 01:34:42 PM

Construction methods lead to failure or success when laying asphalt over existing concrete. It's all about cracking, and if that can be minimized, success can be achieved. Good crack repair in the concrete is a must. Then, a good bituminous tack coat prior to applying the binder course.

Finally, before laying the surface, the seams in the binder course need to be sealed. For that I've seen fresh bitumen and even a sort of "tape" that is placed before the surface course is laid. 

This practice will keep water out, to the best extent possible. 

Poor drainage probably accounts for 95 percent of all pavement failure, in my experience.

Of course, I'm all about using recycled asphalt whenever possible. It works fine for a base course and it works fine for a binder course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 01:44:46 PM

Pavement failure around here is caused by constantly digging holes in the pavement and then patching the hole, badly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 01:48:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 12:54:10 PM

I'm pretty sure it is not intended for a street. 

Some of the roads around here are concrete dating from maybe 1960 or so and are still in use, usually with a bit of patching.  Asphalt over concrete seems to break down faster than regular asphalt.

Unfortunately,budgets break down faster if you try something else

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 01:49:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 01:44:46 PM

Pavement failure around here is caused by constantly digging holes in the pavement and then patching the hole, badly.

Thereby causing poor pavement drainage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 01:54:11 PM

The patches often are either raised, or dips, and the traffic going over them puts enough pressure on the bump to cause them to worsen, or so I surmise.

Back sort of point, what are the realistic prospects that the world will reduce CO2 emissions sufficient to have a measurable impact on climate change?

China, India, and everyone else.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 06:21:23 PM

72 now,could be 30 and snowing thursday though

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 06:57:22 PM

We had near-freezing temps last Thurday and Friday nights.  Today we hit 89.  Friday is supposed to be back down near or even below freezing.

Weird.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:45:53 AM

Yeah, we're going from AC to heat and back.  I'd ride it out but the wife is finnicky.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 08:47:10 AM

https://www.space.com/denman-glacier-retreat-worlds-deepest-canyon.html?fbclid=IwAR3w-nCCV-KPr2x_SxgbtNkPbT_-XibmnI5ASC_43X5IHLH8hCNxiw_Q8No (https://www.space.com/denman-glacier-retreat-worlds-deepest-canyon.html?fbclid=IwAR3w-nCCV-KPr2x_SxgbtNkPbT_-XibmnI5ASC_43X5IHLH8hCNxiw_Q8No)

Denman Glacier's western flank flows over the deepest known land canyon on Earth (https://www.livescience.com/new-anatarctica-map-climate-change.html), plunging at least 11,000 feet (3,500 meters) below sea level. Right now, that canyon (known as the Denman trough) is mostly cut off from the sea thanks to all the glacial ice piled inside and atop the ravine. However, as the glacier's edge continues to retreat farther and farther down the slope, warm ocean water will pour into the canyon, battering bigger and bigger sections of the glacier and gradually turning the Denman trough into a giant bowl of meltwater with nowhere else to go.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 08:59:57 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:45:53 AM

Yeah, we're going from AC to heat and back.  I'd ride it out but the wife is finnicky.

We've been trying to ride it out, but man, this radiant heat thing is real. In the winter, our air handler never goes on if the temp is above 10F.

It got to be 79 in the condo yesterday. I almost turned the AC on, but refrained.

They turn off the radiant heat on 4/15.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 02:08:34 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 08:47:10 AM

https://www.space.com/denman-glacier-retreat-worlds-deepest-canyon.html?fbclid=IwAR3w-nCCV-KPr2x_SxgbtNkPbT_-XibmnI5ASC_43X5IHLH8hCNxiw_Q8No (https://www.space.com/denman-glacier-retreat-worlds-deepest-canyon.html?fbclid=IwAR3w-nCCV-KPr2x_SxgbtNkPbT_-XibmnI5ASC_43X5IHLH8hCNxiw_Q8No)

Denman Glacier's western flank flows over the deepest known land canyon on Earth (https://www.livescience.com/new-anatarctica-map-climate-change.html), plunging at least 11,000 feet (3,500 meters) below sea level. Right now, that canyon (known as the Denman trough) is mostly cut off from the sea thanks to all the glacial ice piled inside and atop the ravine. However, as the glacier's edge continues to retreat farther and farther down the slope, warm ocean water will pour into the canyon, battering bigger and bigger sections of the glacier and gradually turning the Denman trough into a giant bowl of meltwater with nowhere else to go.

When a glacier retreats, its foot moves upslope.  Is there something special about this glacier that makes it work the other way?
If the Denman Trough fills with water, will it affect sea levels measurably?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 02:17:49 PM

The trench is filled with ice, but obviously the glacier is well above the top of the trench.  If the trench is filled with sea water below the glacier, the rest of the glacier could melt much faster and the excess would be additional sea water load.

I didn't know of a trench this deep on land before.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 03:52:01 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 02:17:49 PM

The trench is filled with ice, but obviously the glacier is well above the top of the trench.  If the trench is filled with sea water below the glacier, the rest of the glacier could melt much faster and the excess would be additional sea water load.

I didn't know of a trench this deep on land before.

Does the fact that water is denser than ice come into play?
Yeah, I had never heard of a land trench that deep.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 04:05:43 PM

Not much except ice floats, usually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 06:20:18 PM

74 right now tomorrow nite down to 38 and maybe snow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:26:42 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 03:52:01 PM

Does the fact that water is denser than ice come into play?

It is a factor in that ice floats (usually) and warmer water can get underneath an ice sheet and provide enough heat to melt the ice.  In this case, I believe the ice serves as a kind of dam so water can't get into the trench from the ocean, but it that dam melts, water could get there and accelerate the melting.  
.

Ice made from deuterium oxide does not float.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 06:32:11 PM

What I was thinking was that a trench filled with liquid water would contain more "water" than the same trench filled with solid matter.

It's a good thing that H2O's liquid state is denser than its solid state.  And interesting in that no other (virtually no other?) element acts that way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 06:40:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:26:42 PM

Ice made from deuterium oxide does not float.

Really? That's interesting... I'd never heard that before.

I know H20 basically floats as ice because it forms a specific crystalline structure that makes it less dense than the liquid form.

Does deuterium oxide not float because it doesn't form that structure? I can't imagine that the weight of the extra proton is enough to cause it to sink if it still forms that crystalline structure...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 06:43:49 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 06:40:18 PM

Really? That's interesting... I'd never heard that before.

I know H20 basically floats as ice because it forms a specific crystalline structure that makes it less dense than the liquid form.

Does deuterium oxide not float because it doesn't form that structure? I can't imagine that the weight of the extra proton is enough to cause it to sink if it still forms that crystalline structure...

F U for making "remember" the crystalline matter portion of the damn E.I.T. exam.

Bastage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 06:55:26 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 06:43:49 PM

F U for making "remember" the crystalline matter portion of the damn E.I.T. exam.

Bastage.

I've often* wondered if life would have formed if water became more dense when it froze, as most elements do... 

The cold temps and pressure of the deep ocean would lead to the bottom of the ocean being water frozen solid... What would that have done to the ocean floor where we tend to believe life first formed? 

It seems like a little thing, but water is so critical to life and it might be that this specific property of water is itself one of the most meaningful properties that it could have--and most other elements don't share it...

* Often as in this is a thought that has crossed my mind WAY too many times because I'm a nerd.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 06:56:41 PM

Nerd Bastage. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 08:06:32 PM

D2O has different bond angles relative to H2O, basically, and it forms a crystalline structure less dense than liquid H2O.

D2O also doesn't hydrogen bond as tightly.  It also is toxic (in high doses) because of the secondary isotope effect which I won't bore you with.

If regular water was dense than ice, we probably would not have life on the planet.  Oceans would freeze from the bottom up and kill everything in it.  The water deep in the ocean gets to 4°C because that is the densest point for H2O.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 08:35:53 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 06:55:26 PM

I've often* wondered if life would have formed if water became more dense when it froze, as most elements do...

The cold temps and pressure of the deep ocean would lead to the bottom of the ocean being water frozen solid... What would that have done to the ocean floor where we tend to believe life first formed?

It seems like a little thing, but water is so critical to life and it might be that this specific property of water is itself one of the most meaningful properties that it could have--and most other elements don't share it...

* Often as in this is a thought that has crossed my mind WAY too many times because I'm a nerd.

It's a huge thing, as you say.
It's why I said upthread that we are lucky.  It's difficult to imagine how life would have formed, and how different it might have been, had the ice sunk to the bottom of the ocean.
I too am a nerd.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 08:43:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 08:06:32 PM

D2O has different bond angles relative to H2O, basically, and it forms a crystalline structure less dense than liquid H2O.

D2O also doesn't hydrogen bond as tightly.  It also is toxic (in high doses) because of the secondary isotope effect which I won't bore you with.

If regular water was dense than ice, we probably would not have life on the planet.  Oceans would freeze from the bottom up and kill everything in it.  The water deep in the ocean gets to 4°C because that is the densest point for H2O.

Does frozen deuterium oxide float in liquid deuterium oxide?

Per the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge, its temperature of maximum density is 11.6°C.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 10:21:04 PM

It will float in D2O liquid water.

It is a clever way to kill someone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 08, 2020, 10:23:55 PM

First go to the basement storm and twister warnings of the year this evening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2020, 10:36:06 PM

good luck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:38:41 PM

We had a few F-1s touch down in NE Ohio yesterday,no fatatlities thankfully.One down Medina's way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 10:39:48 PM

 I liked watching F-16s touch down when I can do it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 10:45:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 10:21:04 PM

It will float in D2O liquid water.

It is a clever way to kill someone.

Problem is finding enough deuterium, I'm guessing... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 10:52:45 PM

We used quite a bit of D2O back in the day as an NMR solvent.  (Mostly we used CDCl3 really.)

You can buy it, it's a bit pricey.  But you need to feed it to a person for a few weeks and ensure they don't get any regular water from food or drinking.  An ME would be unlikely to check on levels of D in the body, that would take running a mass spec.

A Mass spec is a fascinating piece of equipment these days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2020, 11:25:32 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 06:20:18 PM

74 right now tomorrow nite down to 38 and maybe snow

Well it snowed briefly this morning for an hour,didn't stick because of the warm spell.Could get more tonite

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2020, 11:17:36 PM

expecting 3 inches of white shit here on Easter Sunday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2020, 01:04:53 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 09, 2020, 11:17:36 PM

expecting 3 inches of white shit here on Easter Sunday

Sounds like a dietary problem. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 08:44:41 AM

Winter Wheat Ale

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2020, 12:55:18 PM

this time of the year it's turned from stuff to $h!t

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 04:14:02 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 09, 2020, 11:17:36 PM

expecting 3 inches of white shit here on Easter Sunday

Bird migration?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 04:39:54 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 10, 2020, 01:04:53 AM

Sounds like a dietary problem.

...and possibly racist...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 05:03:52 PM

3" of cocaine? 


We'll all get skinny cuz we just won't eat. We'll hang out in the coolest bars, and all that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 06:15:10 PM

Getting an ultra cold snap here tonight,  forecast 41°F, below freezing in the mountains.  Ouch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2020, 07:18:35 PM

enjoy

we shall be well below freezing for a while

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 07:14:57 AM

That line of severe weather moving through the SE didn't seem to hit us here very hard, but it did other places.  The next few days look to be perfect.  Typical spring weather.  The tulip poplar outside our unit is blooming, the wife is fascinated.  The tree must be 100 feet high growing on a small patch of land with a large sycamore next to it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 10:42:09 AM

still 4 inches of wet heavy snow in the grass here - roads all melted

got down in the teens last night - made the snow crunchy

high of 40 today and tomorrow, maybe hit 60 on Sunday

we needed the moisture

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2020, 12:26:27 PM

Rained much of the last week here, but that looks to have passed. Should hit high 70s tomorrow. 

I'm really hoping my grass seed in the backyard has at least gotten a good foothold. I want to have a lawn again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 10:37:42 AM

Rain here today, had some thunder earlier, but just drizzle now.  I doubt we will be able to walk about.

We about needed some rain, so it's fine with me.  If I get ambitious, I can run some wind sprints in the garage.  People look at me askance when I do that if they are out and about.  I am out of gin and vodka.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2020, 11:15:56 AM

better go to scotch 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2020, 11:44:57 AM

or Ripple

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on April 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM

Projected to rain a mess here today. Think I might have to break out some old running shoes for my daily walk. Hope the path doesn't flood. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 19, 2020, 12:05:13 PM

We're running 40% ahead of our normal precipitation total so far this year.

We had a dusting of snow--that did not stick--about 5 days ago.  We had a freeze Friday night.

Strange weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 12:09:24 PM

I put in an order from Tower Wines.  You order on line and they have it for curbside pickup.  I know what I want so this works great, they open at 12:30.  The wife wanted some "martini" which I finally figured out is vermouth.

The chili last night was very good.  The wife said it was on the edge of being too spicy.  It really is better when I used hamburger that has been grilled, or leftover grilled steak.  I'm going to get some flatirons at Kroger while I'm out and about.

Our friends in Boston sent photos of snow, so I returned the favor with photos from down here.  He said "Verdant".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2020, 03:03:11 PM

Way above our normal rain volume in Mar/Apr so far... Looks like it's about over though. After some rain yesterday, we should be done--no more in the 10-day forecast.

Next week we should hit a sustained stretch of highs in the 80s though... And right now they're predicting 91 next Saturday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 03:49:25 PM

HIghs in the low 70s here next few days, a couple days with some rain.  Supposed to hit 80°F in 8 days.

June obviously can have some hot days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 22, 2020, 10:19:09 PM

Since the Covid thread has gotten chaotic and this is the better place for it, anyway, especially with it being Earth Day....

Coal is now dead in Austria and Sweden and the rest of the EU isn't far behind. It's all economic at this point.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/sweden-adds-name-to-growing-list-of-coal-free-states-in-europe/ (https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/sweden-adds-name-to-growing-list-of-coal-free-states-in-europe/)

Yes, natural gas has been the primary reason for its decline so far, but wind and solar are becoming the top source of new generation, as it is.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42497 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42497)

Yes, that was published in January (pre-Covid), but the EIA is notoriously conservative, anyway, since consistently underestimate the growth of renewables, and the pandemic is affecting gas more severely than wind and solar, anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 07:01:41 AM

Germany has announced it will put its last coal plant offline by 2038, a commitment that still has to be firmed up in the country’s coal exit law.

If I were "in charge" in the US, I'd make it a policy to shutter coal power plants as rapidly as possible.  I don't know if government can make it happen faster than it is happening naturally of course.  Germany has a large economy obviously, and they remain reliant on coal generation particularly as they are shutting down nuclear plants.  They also are getting NG from Russia.  Shutting down coal in 18 years in not very impressive really.

In 2019, Germany generated electricity from the following sources: 29% coal, 25% wind, 14% nuclear, 10% natural gas, 9.1% solar, 8.7% biomass, 3.7% hydroelectricity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 09:08:19 AM

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/494203-study-arctic-will-have-iceless-summer-by-2050 (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/494203-study-arctic-will-have-iceless-summer-by-2050)

Dirk Notz, a lead author of the study, said the Arctic could experience iceless summers soon, regardless of whether carbon dioxide emissions are reduced but added that doing so would delay the process.

"If we reduce global emissions rapidly and substantially, and thus keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless likely disappear occasionally in summer even before 2050," Notz said.

I don't think "we" will reduce emissions rapidly and substantially in the next 20 years, perhaps slowly and gradually, at best, though an economic shut down helps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 10:44:11 AM

Germany shutting down nuclear plants seems counter-intuitive.  Replacing coal plants with nuclear ones is a fast way to lower CO2 emissions.  Most of nuclear's problems are long-term.  If the emergency is today, it seems like nuclear ought to be a bigger piece of the fix, not a smaller one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:18:55 AM

That is one reason I don't take this seriously, meaning I view all the clamor as just that, bold talk from a one eyed fat man.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 11:44:26 AM

When I see politicians announce commitments to what they will do 20-30 years from now, I do always take that with a grain of salt. 

Most of them won't be in power at that point, so they know it'll be someone else's job to renege on the promises.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:54:18 AM

That too, and I see it all the time.  Even a goal for 2030 is suspect to me, and the Paris agreements EVEN IF MET are not nearly enough if the models are about right.

This is just hot air to me.  Someone should get serious about it and lay out a real plan, which would shock everyone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:01:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 07:01:41 AM

Germany has announced it will put its last coal plant offline by 2038, a commitment that still has to be firmed up in the country’s coal exit law.

But didn't you say it really doesn't matter if India/China/Russia aren't falling in Line?I could see if national stock of coal is depleting.Man folks really dissing the coal miners lately

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:03:46 PM

It matters little if the US went to zero carbon tomorrow if China et al. don't do something close to that, in terms of climate change, using the models.

The forecasts of the models is very very dire, far worse than many appear to understand, and we're past the point of no return in effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:13:27 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:03:46 PM

The forecasts of the models is very very dire, far worse than many appear to understand, and we're past the point of no return in effect.

A few years back one of the cable channels did a few episodes of earth w/o Humans or sumsuch.How the earth would adjust and reclaim/regrowth metropolitan areas.Pretty interesting.I'm a big believer of saving as many trees as we can

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:17:20 PM

I love trees.  Tree cover in the US has gone up incredibly since 1930.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 12:49:20 PM

My point is that coal is going to die eventually. It's just a matter of time. You can create a map of them here: https://www.eia.gov/state/maps.php (https://www.eia.gov/state/maps.php). California has 1 left, New England has 2 left, New York has 4, New Jersey has none, Oregon / Washington / Idaho have 1 each.

Germany made a shortsighted decision to focus on shutting down nuclear after the Fukushima disaster. I agree that existing nuclear should be kept open as long as possible. The problem is that new nuclear is not even close to being economical. The one in Georgia will almost certainly be the last big new nuclear plant in the country. Nuclear's last hope is smaller-scale plants that will start to be deployed soon, but it remains to be seen if they'll be commercially viable everywhere as opposed to just remote locations in cold climates (eg. Alaska), military bases, and some other specific situations.... Fusion power may still become viable someday, but that's too far out to count on it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:53:29 PM

Coal plants would be gone tomorrow if they were not already paid for.  I'd be for hastening the day they are shut down if that is needed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:56:26 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:17:20 PM

I love trees.  Tree cover in the US has gone up incredibly since 1930.

Well that's because from like 1870-1930 Logger barons were lifting landscapes like scalps

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:58:58 PM

Yeah, the amount of eastern US logged over by 1930 is astonishing.  The Smoky Mountains were almost entirely denuded when it was established as a park in 1934.

Very little old growth exists in the east.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:09:58 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:58:58 PM

Yeah, the amount of eastern US logged over by 1930 is astonishing.  The Smoky Mountains were almost entirely denuded when it was established as a park in 1934.

Very little old growth exists in the east.

There was a high fallutin shopping mecca erected in the last 15 yrs in upscale suburbia here.There were old growth sycamores,walnuts,ash,oaks,chestnuts,maples - Gone.It's a sight i really hated to see.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:14:50 PM

Was it true old growth, or just older trees?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:22:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:14:50 PM

Was it true old growth, or just older trees?

Fairly certain it was mostly was old growth.Turns out my cousin knew the farmers who had the land in their family for well over 100 yrs.There were articles in some of the smaller papers around about the stands of trees.I'd be surprised if that lumber didn't go to the highest bidder.😢

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:26:20 PM

The old growth in the Eastern US is nearly all in inaccessible regions.  There are some small pockets around here and there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:32:08 PM

This might have been here/there thing as much of the woods had been felled for farming.But some of those stretches/stands are now Trader Joe's,Starbucks,CheeseCake Factory,TGIs......you know - progress

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:39:07 PM

I hate cutting down even 20 year old trees for such "progress".  A build near us had some 30 year old oak trees on the sidewalks around it,  they cut them all down for an expansion.  I was pretty livid every time we walked by.  

Maybe the "expansion" will offer something of some value anyway, and I think they will replant, but with smaller trees of course.

(https://i.imgur.com/Rdfhbn1.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:39:58 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/c4lpTLL.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on April 23, 2020, 01:44:20 PM

I woke up to a snow covered yard yesterday.  I sure as hell hope this global warming called Spring gets here soon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:58:26 PM

We've had periodic wisps of flurries the last couple of days.Strange winter/spring for sure,seems like just 30-40-50 since November  - no distinguishable season

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 02:06:27 PM

What I have searched for in vain is a "plan" to limit climate change, anywhere, that isn't just hand waving.

1.  Here is what would be done by this date.
2.  Here is the cost of doing it.
3.  Here is the benefit according to the model in doing this.

When I review the MIT Climate Group's various assessments, what I see is what I'm saying, it's simply too late, S is going to happen, and with a lot of effort and expense we MIGHT limit the impact marginally, maybe, off in the distant future.

The Paris Accord targets both won't be met in general and are not nearly enough to make a measurable difference in outcome.

http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422 (http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422)

Assuming a climate system response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that’s of median strength, the three scenarios reduce the SAT in 2100 between 0.6 and 1.1 C relative to the “no climate policy” case. But because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1 C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2 C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6 C — far exceeding the 2 C goal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 02:07:15 PM

To me, this is somewhat like telling me I'm 20 pounds over weight, but if I quit drinking and work out each day for 2 hours and watch my diet, I can lost one pound in 5 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 02:12:19 PM

That's no fun besides you'd look pekid

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 02:46:15 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:56:26 PM

Well that's because from like 1870-1930 Logger barons were lifting landscapes like scalps

The deforestation of America east of the Mississippi didn't start with logger barons.  It was good old American settlers clearing land so they could plant their crops.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 02:50:34 PM

Most major cities and especially college towns have climate plans. If you just search the city and climate or "clean energy" you'll probably find it. I don't think anyone has really combined it into one place, though.

I found this pretty easily for example: https://www.redandblack.com/athensnews/athens-commits-to-a-100-percent-clean-energy-plan-by-2050/article_f22168d6-8a64-11e9-9bef-cbf360adf89f.html (https://www.redandblack.com/athensnews/athens-commits-to-a-100-percent-clean-energy-plan-by-2050/article_f22168d6-8a64-11e9-9bef-cbf360adf89f.html)

Ann Arbor just updated their's to be carbon-neutral by 2030 https://www.a2zero.org/ (https://www.a2zero.org/)

Arlington VA and DC are quite aggressive, too.
https://doee.dc.gov/cleanenergydc (https://doee.dc.gov/cleanenergydc)
https://environment.arlingtonva.us/energy/community-energy-plan-cep/ (https://environment.arlingtonva.us/energy/community-energy-plan-cep/)

That said, state level renewable portfolio standards, the wikipedia article appears to be updated on it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_portfolio_standards_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_portfolio_standards_in_the_United_States)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 02:56:21 PM

Those aren't plans at all.  They are aspirations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 03:02:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 02:56:21 PM

Those aren't plans at all.  They are aspirations.

For RPSs, there are goals and mandates, the second of which requires the states to reach those levels by that year.

The climate plans have requirements, too, and there are penalties for not reaching those requirements. For example. For large buildings in DC that are required to be benchmarked, if they don't sufficient improve their energy efficiency and/or meet the minimum requirements, the building owners will be fined for that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 03:05:58 PM

And none of that answers my three questions, at all, it's aspirational political BS to me.

"Were going to be carbon free by 2050!!!!  YAY!!!!"

And every time I try and concoct a real plan I get very depressed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 03:08:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 03:05:58 PM

And none of that answers my three questions, at all, it's aspirational political BS to me.

"Were going to be carbon free by 2050!!!!  YAY!!!!"

And every time I try and concoct a real plan I get very depressed.

If you were to look through the details of many of these plans, they would answer the first two questions. I don't know what else to tell you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 03:12:14 PM

For me, those simply are not real plans.  They are political PR BS.

And of course none of it matters because the "plans" are entirely local.  So, some small town goes carbon free by 2050, if that really happens.  Yay.

Political BS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 03:21:59 PM

I've got a plan.

No racial, ethnic, or religious prejudice in the world by 2050.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 03:36:07 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 03:21:59 PM

I've got a plan.

No racial, ethnic, or religious prejudice in the world by 2050.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6svOHFSAH8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6svOHFSAH8)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 03:45:02 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 03:36:07 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6svOHFSAH8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6svOHFSAH8)

I try to be tolerant of religious people, but I do think the world would be a better place if Humanism were mainstream. Atheism gets a bad reputation because of its association with Communism.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 03:54:36 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 02:46:15 PM

The deforestation of America east of the Mississippi didn't start with logger barons.  It was good old American settlers clearing land so they could plant their crops.

Up in Michigan,Wisconscin maybe parts of Minnesota tons of lumber were being transported by rivers and lakes.Ohio was like 96% woodlands when the Europeans arrived.A lot of the state's lands were cleared for farms because of the fertile soil.Some rather large swamps were filled in also for farming
https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/fmg/nfmg/fm101/eco/p1_historical.html

 (https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/fmg/nfmg/fm101/eco/p1_historical.html)https://www.mnhs.org/foresthistory/learn/logging (https://www.mnhs.org/foresthistory/learn/logging)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 03:57:34 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 03:45:02 PM

I try to be tolerant of religious people, but I do think the world would be a better place if Humanism were mainstream. Atheism gets a bad reputation because of its association with Communism.

I wasn't making a religious comment, more along the lines of imagining an impossible dream.

Anyway,  I'm glad that you "try to be tolerant of religious people."  I suppose that I could similarly say "I try to be tolerant of atheists."   *shrug*

It takes all kinds.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 04:03:11 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 03:45:02 PM

I try to be tolerant of religious people, but I do think the world would be a better place if Humanism were mainstream. Atheism gets a bad reputation because of its association with Communism.

Nice of you to be tolerant, Michi.
But we don't have religious toleration built into our system.  It's religious freedom that we have.
I think you're wrong in the opinion you stated.  But the great thing is, you are free to state it without having to worry about people tolerating it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 04:06:31 PM

Football is a Religion or so I'm told

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 04:13:55 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 03:21:59 PM

I've got a plan.

No racial, ethnic, or religious prejudice in the world by 2050.

that's not a plan, that's a mandate

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 04:26:58 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 03:45:02 PM

I try to be tolerant of religious people, but I do think the world would be a better place if Humanism were mainstream. Atheism gets a bad reputation because of its association with Communism.

Atheism gets a bad reputation because a lot of atheists are arseholes. 

And I say that as an atheist. Luckily I got my arsehole phase out in high school. 

The way I put it is this: anyone who is a convert to something, ANYTHING, can't freaking wait to tell you about it. And often denigrate anyone or anything that is not a convert. 

Look at crossfit junkies. Look at vegetarians/vegans. Look at the newly sober. Look at people who found religion late in life. They almost always want to make sure you know about it, and look down on you if you haven't yet "seen the light."

Well, this is a very religious country. Most atheists were not raised atheist. They became disillusioned with religion/theism over time and for various reasons, and now they feel like the wool has been pulled from before their eyes and they finally see the truth. And dammit, they're going to tell EVERYONE about it.

That was me 25 years ago, but luckily it was back in the BBS days, long before social media. I grew out of it. 

Now, 95% of people who know me casually would have no clue I'm an atheist. It quite literally doesn't come up. Mostly because I don't bring it up. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 04:49:46 PM

Sorry if I offended anyone, and I acknowledge that I've been somewhat more contentious and have written potentially controversial posts recently. This whole pandemic situation (and staying with my parents for the past 5 weeks - hopefully only 3 more - since everyone is stuck at home, anyway) has exacerbated my frustrations with society and the world.... I don't mean to be disrespectful and I'll just agree to disagree on some of these issues, but this is one of the few outlets I have to interact with anyone right now....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 04:56:18 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 04:49:46 PM

Sorry if I offended anyone, and I acknowledge that I've been somewhat more contentious and have written potentially controversial posts recently. This whole pandemic situation (and staying with my parents for the past 5 weeks - hopefully only 3 more - since everyone is stuck at home, anyway) has exacerbated my frustrations with society and the world.... I don't mean to be disrespectful and I'll just agree to disagree on some of these issues, but this is one of the few outlets I have to interact with anyone right now....

You're a good egg.  Hang in there.  Things are gonna be okay,  and I promise not to foist off any religious stuff on you.

It's my fault for posting the always-controversial "Imagine" by John Lennon.  I really only meant it in response to C-Dubb's plan (or "mandate") acknowledging that it was as pie-in-the-sky as he intended it to be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 05:35:34 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2020, 04:49:46 PM

Sorry if I offended anyone, and I acknowledge that I've been somewhat more contentious and have written potentially controversial posts recently. This whole pandemic situation (and staying with my parents for the past 5 weeks - hopefully only 3 more - since everyone is stuck at home, anyway) has exacerbated my frustrations with society and the world.... I don't mean to be disrespectful and I'll just agree to disagree on some of these issues, but this is one of the few outlets I have to interact with anyone right now....

No sweat, no offense, Michi.  Most folks on this board, certainly including me, have posted things more disrespectful/controversial.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 06:34:32 PM

In a "sign of the times", GM reportedly is working on a Corvette hybrid.

Before you get overly upset at this obvious apostasy, it will have 1,000 horsepower and a flat plane crank.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 07:17:10 PM

as long as it has the flat plane crank and sounds "mean"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 10:39:22 PM

This is a golden age for performance cars.  They aren't as good-looking as performance cars were 50-60 years ago, but they are faster, handle better, brake better, are more fuel-efficient, are cleaner, and are nicer inside than ever.

Too bad so many of them--I'm talkin' about you, mid-engine Corvette!--are butt-ugly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:50:13 AM

Ugly is in the eye of of course.  I like the new Corvette design myself, though the readr end is not that appealing and that is what most people will be seeing.

The base Corvette does 0-60 in under 3 seconds.  No muscle car in the day could get close to that.  They do look "classic" because they are, but they drove like crap in reality.  It is rather amazing what can be done with IC engines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 08:39:20 AM

the new Vette look has grown on me

I didn't hate it, but now I rather like it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 08:40:45 AM

An engine with a flat plane crank is going to sound "different".  Not many have used this device in the past, Ferrari is one, Ford has one, and now Chevy soon will have one.

The down side is roughness at lower RPMs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 09:22:43 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 10:39:22 PM

Too bad so many of them--I'm talkin' about you, mid-engine Corvette!--are butt-ugly.

Form follows function, and you can't claim they're not functional. 

Yeah, maybe a mid-engine supercar doesn't have the exact same proportions that we all grew up with idolizing... But maybe that's because we WERE building cars wrong, and now we've figure out how to do it right. It'll just take some time (and for us old farts to die) until the world realizes that's what a supercar "should" look like. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 09:33:46 AM

I think the rear end of the new Vette could have been a lot nicer.  The rest looks fine to me.

You have to go rear or mid engine to utilize most of the power of the engine, or go to AWD.  The old Vette ZR1 is not as fast to 60 as the new Vette with a much less powerful engine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 09:43:28 AM

I just signed a contract to convert my pool to salt water, and also to solar heating. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:42:23 AM

I've been in salt water pools.  I am not sure of the advantage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 10:45:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:42:23 AM

I've been in salt water pools.  I am not sure of the advantage.

Supposedly less maintenance and a "softer" feel to the water.  I don't personally notice any difference.

Builders/installers around here basically stopped installing saltwater pools because they were tired of getting sued for the breakdown of the coping around the edges, when using natural stones.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 11:07:00 AM

It's much better for your skin, number one. It's also a lot less maintenance and expense. 

Right now we are paying a service to come every week, add chlorine, do the testing, etc. The other lady we pay to "watch" the house weekly adds water to combat the evaporation.

So, the pool people are $150/month. That expense will go away. The conversion to salt is $900.00, so in 6 months it's paid for.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 11:29:23 AM

Yeah, the amount of chemicals needed to maintain a chlorine pool are significant, which goes away with a saltwater pool. As a homebrewer, we're often worried about getting chlorine *out* of our water, but for chlorine (not chloramine) just letting water sit out in the open air for 24 hours will largely get rid of it. So with pool chemicals, since you WANT it to stay in there you have to constantly test and maintain the levels. 

And I haven't heard that saltwater pools require any compensatory maintenance either by getting rid of chlorine... Because it's salt, it stays in the pool as the water evaporates, so you just have to add water. Maybe every once in a while you need to test salt levels, but it's not the level of maintenance a chlorine pool requires.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 11:39:38 AM

Ya but what about the corrosion of salt water on the equipment?Not sure that's cheaper in the long run

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 11:57:10 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 11:39:38 AM

Ya but what about the corrosion of salt water on the equipment?Not sure that's cheaper in the long run

Again, I'm not an expert, but it would be absolutely ridiculous if the materials used were prone to corrosion.

I'm guessing that $900 that Badge is talking about isn't about draining the pool and pouring salt and new water in... It's probably retrofitting some of the various equipment so it's not susceptible to corrosion from salt. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 12:11:47 PM

Chlorine is more corrosive than salt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2020, 12:13:15 PM

Finally got our first 100 degree day this week.  Gonna be 105 on Sunday.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:21:26 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 12:11:47 PM

Chlorine is more corrosive than salt.

That depends on the material to which it is exposed of course.  I'd say in general it is, though it also depends on concentration obviously.

Chlorine in water has some interesting chemistry, as obviously it's not Cl2, it's some combination of HOCl (Clorox) and OCl- and CL2 depending on pH.


https://www.homeadvisor.com/r/saltwater-vs-chlorine-pool/ (https://www.homeadvisor.com/r/saltwater-vs-chlorine-pool/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 12:22:54 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2020, 12:13:15 PM

Finally got our first 100 degree day this week.  Gonna be 105 on Sunday. 

Expected to hit 93 today. I might have to hook up my new thermostat so I can run the a/c...

...for the puppy, of course. I don't want him to overheat. 

The kids can just deal with it lol.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 12:28:17 PM

Salinity in a salt water pool is about 2500-4500 PPM. Ocean water is about 10-12 times higher - around 35K PPM.

We'll probably be at around 3500 PPM, so about 10X less than the ocean.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:30:10 PM

Sounds like a good investment, I had never looked into it before.

I believe it is true that if a pool smells like chlorine, it does not have enough chlorine in it.  You're smelling the chlorine byproducts at low levels of chloride.  I can't recall the particulars.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 12:59:42 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 09:22:43 AM

Form follows function, and you can't claim they're not functional.

Yeah, maybe a mid-engine supercar doesn't have the exact same proportions that we all grew up with idolizing... But maybe that's because we WERE building cars wrong, and now we've figure out how to do it right. It'll just take some time (and for us old farts to die) until the world realizes that's what a supercar "should" look like.

It's not the proportions.  Of course a mid-engine car will have a different profile from a front-engine one.  My favorite car of all time is a Ford GT40, and it is mid-engined.  "Supercars" have been mid-engined since before the term was coined.

It's all the stupid styling lines and creases--that are not about function at all but rather about looking "aggressive"--that bother me.  And the new Corvette is particularly bad on this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 01:01:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:21:26 PM

That depends on the material to which it is exposed of course.  I'd say in general it is, though it also depends on concentration obviously.

Chlorine in water has some interesting chemistry, as obviously it's not Cl2, it's some combination of HOCl (Clorox) and OCl- and CL2 depending on pH.


https://www.homeadvisor.com/r/saltwater-vs-chlorine-pool/ (https://www.homeadvisor.com/r/saltwater-vs-chlorine-pool/)

The saltwater pools have been accused of eating away at natural stone coping around the edge of the pool.  So much so, that regional pool builders down here have been sued so often they pretty much won't build a saltwater pool anymore. 

I bought a house with a chlorine pool, while one of my best friends built a saltwater pool about the same time ~8 years ago, and his natural stone coping is deteriorating pretty badly at this point.  Mine is largely unaffected.

I don't know if it's true or not, but it's widespread enough around here, that pool builders pretty much stoppped doing it, or they ask for extensive waivers when they do agree.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 01:29:09 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 12:59:42 PM

It's not the proportions.  Of course a mid-engine car will have a different profile from a front-engine one.  My favorite car of all time is a Ford GT40, and it is mid-engined.  "Supercars" have been mid-engined since before the term was coined.

It's all the stupid styling lines and creases--that are not about function at all but rather about looking "aggressive"--that bother me.  And the new Corvette is particularly bad on this point.

Ahh, I can see your point there. I think "sharp edges/creases" have been design point streaming in unrelated to only supercars...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 01:42:43 PM

Yeah, at the same time cars have never been better, technically, many of them are quite ugly.

But then I think that ugly aesthetics dominate our culture these days.  Art, architecture, literature, music, movies, advertising, sports unis, clothing fashions, politics, etc.  Automobile styling is just a tiny piece of that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 01:44:13 PM

Car design is subjective.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 02:04:02 PM

There is an objective school of aesthetics.  It's certainly a minority viewpoint.

But here's the "for dummies" argument for objective aesthetics:

Is the Mona Lisa a beautiful painting or not?  Can we say?  If we can say that it is or isn't, how do we explain the fact that our current judgment about the painting is different from what other judgments in other times, has been?

The objective answer is that whatever the Mona Lisa is, it has been that since it was painted, and it will be that for as long as it lasts in reasonably the same condition.  It's either beautiful or it is not, and that it's beauty (or lack thereof) does not depend on what 50% +1 of the people say at any given moment.

Same with the Taj Mahal, the Acropolis, the Empire State Building, and the Ford GT40. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 02:37:25 PM

There will be folks who like the Corvette design and folks who don't.  There are folks who don't like the GT40 design.

This is my favorite car design right now, I'm sure some don't like it:

(https://i.imgur.com/Nifa87m.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:39:19 PM

Beautiful car, CD!

I'm a big fan of Aston Martin, I think they're currently making the most beautiful cars available.  That's subjective opinion, of course, and I recognize it as such. ;)

(https://www.leasebusters.com/ResearchPhoto/11400/Teaser_alt.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 02:39:43 PM

I suspect that with cars, they've run into a problem.

The cars are basically designed by computers for minimum Cd in a wind tunnel. Essentially they're all copies of each other, because they're all solving for the same solution. They have to fit a driver and passengers, and beyond that they're either a coupe/sedan, an SUV/crossover, or a truck. 

So they can't differentiate based on shape, and thus they have to do it on styling. And so you get a lot more angular/extreme looks, or other things to make it "look" unique since you can't change the shape, and some of those end up garish.

That said, my wife has a Lexus RX350. A few years ago, they went from a more rounded/bulbous design to something much more futuristic, sharp, and angular. I personally love it. The old look was boring. The new one is outstanding IMHO.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 02:43:05 PM

Not only Cd, but also down force in performance cars.  It becomes important around 100 mph or so.  You don't want it to think it's a plane.

An airplane wing converts drag into lift, and a sports car should convert some drag into negative lift.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:48:00 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 02:39:43 PM

I suspect that with cars, they've run into a problem.

The cars are basically designed by computers for minimum Cd in a wind tunnel. Essentially they're all copies of each other, because they're all solving for the same solution. They have to fit a driver and passengers, and beyond that they're either a coupe/sedan, an SUV/crossover, or a truck.

So they can't differentiate based on shape, and thus they have to do it on styling. And so you get a lot more angular/extreme looks, or other things to make it "look" unique since you can't change the shape, and some of those end up garish.

That said, my wife has a Lexus RX350. A few years ago, they went from a more rounded/bulbous design to something much more futuristic, sharp, and angular. I personally love it. The old look was boring. The new one is outstanding IMHO.

Maybe?  But I've sometimes wondered, "Why wouldn't Ford just make cars that look exactly like a Ferrari or Aston Martin, but for the price of a Ford?"  And I'm not talking about all of the super-expensive wind tunnel testing or advanced computer modeling and such, that goes into the body design of a Ferrari.  Just simply the same basic design styling cues?  I'd love to drive a car that looked like a Ferrari, but had the reliability and longevity of a mass-produced American car, or Japanese car, or whatever.

Instead we get this?

(https://car-pictures.cars.com/images/?IMG=USC90FOC331A021001.jpg&HEIGHT=600)  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 02:50:56 PM

Car designs are trademarked and you can't legally make a duplicate in appearance.  Trademark law is interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:55:21 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:48:00 PM

Instead we get this?

(https://car-pictures.cars.com/images/?IMG=USC90FOC331A021001.jpg&HEIGHT=600) 

Nothing wrong with "this" if it's dependable and efficient for 12 yrs or more.I'd buy the ugliest ride on the lot if it accomplishes that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 02:59:44 PM

I doubt folks would really like the practicality of a typical Ferrari sports car design.  

Very low seating, no back seat, small trunk, limiting view from inside, ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:11:11 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 02:59:44 PM

I doubt folks would really like the practicality of a typical Ferrari sports car design. 

Very low seating, no back seat, small trunk, limiting view from inside, ...

All good points.  I'm accustomed to a very large SUV, a pickup, and my wife's convertible, so I'm not accustomed to limited views from the interior.  When I sit in the modern Mustang, Challenger, and Camaro, the sight lines are crazily bad to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:12:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 02:50:56 PM

Car designs are trademarked and you can't legally make a duplicate in appearance.  Trademark law is interesting.

Eh, I'll go ahead and dismiss this one.  The modern Ferraris and modern Aston Martins have very similar lines.  Jaguars too.  No reason at all why Ford can't produce something that looks very, very similar, and avoid that issue.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:14:02 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:55:21 PM

Nothing wrong with "this" if it's dependable and efficient for 12 yrs or more.I'd buy the ugliest ride on the lot if it accomplishes that

But you're just making my point.  I'd love something that is dependable and efficient-- far more so than a Ferrari-- but that LOOKED like a Ferrari.

There's no real reason Ford can't do that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:16:30 PM

If it really did look like a Ferrari, they'd get sued for trademark/tradedress violation.

And the vehicle would be impractical to boot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:18:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:16:30 PM

If it really did look like a Ferrari, they'd get sued for trademark/tradedress violation.

And the vehicle would be impractical to boot.

No, they really wouldn't.  Ferrari isn't suing Aston Martin.  Aston Martin isn't suing Jaguar.  I think you're being obtuse here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:20:17 PM

Watch it I'll throw you in with the Sodomites

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:21:21 PM

The test of a TM violation is consumer confusion.  If a consumer sees a Ferrari-looking Ford and thinks it's a Ferrari, there's a TM/TD violation and they would be sued.

Those other cars do not look alike.  They are perhaps somewhat similar but they do not look like the same car.  

If you make it look different, fine, but then it doesn't look like a Ferrari.

Obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:22:05 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:18:50 PM

No, they really wouldn't.  Ferrari isn't suing Aston Martin.  Aston Martin isn't suing Jaguar.  I think you're being obtuse here.

These vehicles do not "look like" each other.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:28:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:22:05 PM

These vehicles do not "look like" each other. 

They do.  They look much closer to one another, than they do to a Ford Focus, which is my point.

If you don't understand that, okay, we can just stop the discussion right there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:31:15 PM

There is a difference between sharing some basic similarities common to sporty vehicles and "looking alike".

And those shapes of course are not practicable for most people.

If you mean Ford could make a car that looked like an exotic in general, they can, but it would be a practical vehicle if the target market was Ford Focus buyers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:31:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:21:21 PM

The test of a TM violation is consumer confusion.  If a consumer sees a Ferrari-looking Ford and thinks it's a Ferrari, there's a TM/TD violation and they would be sued.

Those other cars do not look alike.  They are perhaps somewhat similar but they do not look like the same car. 

If you make it look different, fine, but then it doesn't look like a Ferrari.

Obviously.

I've actually been involved in a court case regarding trade dress.  The standard of differentiation is surprisingly low. And good luck proving that a customer in the marketplace would be confused between a Ford, and a Ferrari.  That idea is laughable but even if it weren't, still, the standard of differentiation is low.

Those cars DO look like one another.  They look FAR more line one another, than they do a Ford Focus.  This is the point I'm making.  

Like I said, if you don't understand the point I'm making, that's fine, consider us done here. *shrug*

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:33:30 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:31:15 PM

There is a difference between sharing some basic similarities common to sporty vehicles and "looking alike".

And those shapes of course are not practicable for most people.

If you mean Ford could make a car that looked like an exotic in general, they can, but it would be a practical vehicle if the target market was Ford Focus buyers.

The target market is ME.

I can't make this any clearer.  I can't make you drink the water if you refuse to do so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 03:43:04 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:48:00 PM

Maybe?  But I've sometimes wondered, "Why wouldn't Ford just make cars that look exactly like a Ferrari or Aston Martin, but for the price of a Ford?"  And I'm not talking about all of the super-expensive wind tunnel testing or advanced computer modeling and such, that goes into the body design of a Ferrari.  Just simply the same basic design styling cues?  I'd love to drive a car that looked like a Ferrari, but had the reliability and longevity of a mass-produced American car, or Japanese car, or whatever.

Instead we get this?

(https://car-pictures.cars.com/images/?IMG=USC90FOC331A021001.jpg&HEIGHT=600) 

Literally the first time I saw that car I thought "oh, because Ford bought Aston Martin now they're going to steal styling cues?"

Granted, they no longer own them, but they did at the time this was designed. Obviating any of the trademark / trade dress issues. 

Now, you may say [rightly] that this doesn't look quite like an Aston Martin. Of course not. It's a 4-door family sedan. Literally it can't look like an Aston Martin for the reasons someone specified--it has to be a practical automobile. 

But now that Ford no longer owns Aston, my guess is that they're not going to copy Aston. They have their own designs for sporty cars, like the Mustang, which sells brilliantly. And for supercars, they've got the GT. Which is a niche car, to be sure, but it harkens back to their GT40 while bringing in modern style and technology. 

So the answer is... Why would they make an Aston Martin clone? They're Ford, not Aston Martin. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 03:53:22 PM

no good reason to run a flat crank engine at low RPMs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 04:34:31 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 03:43:04 PM

Literally the first time I saw that car I thought "oh, because Ford bought Aston Martin now they're going to steal styling cues?"

Granted, they no longer own them, but they did at the time this was designed. Obviating any of the trademark / trade dress issues.

Now, you may say [rightly] that this doesn't look quite like an Aston Martin. Of course not. It's a 4-door family sedan. Literally it can't look like an Aston Martin for the reasons someone specified--it has to be a practical automobile.

But now that Ford no longer owns Aston, my guess is that they're not going to copy Aston. They have their own designs for sporty cars, like the Mustang, which sells brilliantly. And for supercars, they've got the GT. Which is a niche car, to be sure, but it harkens back to their GT40 while bringing in modern style and technology.

So the answer is... Why would they make an Aston Martin clone? They're Ford, not Aston Martin.

I wasn't even thinking about a time when Ford owned Aston Martin, in fact I'm not sure I knew they ever did. :)

But my response to your final question is, "They could make a car that looks like an Aston Martin, because there are many people (other than me) that think the Aston Martin is beautiful, but can't afford it, but would totally buy a reasonably-priced American car that is also more reliable than an Aston Martin."

Before all of the weird side-tracking, that's my only observation-- why don't they make a car that is styled similarly, but affordably priced?

There are some potential answers I can think of off the top of my head-- Americans don't like that kind of styling.  Or Americans don't like actually driving cars with less-than-ideal sight lines (although sales of Mustangs, Challengers, and Camaros might belie that possibility).  Or "Americans don't like stylish-looking cars with zero or little back seat" (but again, the American "sporty" cars that do sell well, have similar issues).

One other thing, in re-reading your posting of my initial comments, I see that I stated "look exactly like a Ferrari or Aston Martin."  I suppose that must be where CD took me literally, and that certainly wasn't my intent. I meant, cars with similar Euro-sportscar lines.  As opposed to American-sportscar lines, of which we still have several examples on the market.

I'm not sure why he decided to take me literally, I'd certainly give him enough of a benefit of the doubt to assume he is smart enough not to imply an IP violation.  But there you have it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 04:51:11 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:48:00 PM

Maybe?  But I've sometimes wondered, "Why wouldn't Ford just make cars that look exactly like a Ferrari or Aston Martin, but for the price of a Ford?"  And I'm not talking about all of the super-expensive wind tunnel testing or advanced computer modeling and such, that goes into the body design of a Ferrari.  Just simply the same basic design styling cues?  I'd love to drive a car that looked like a Ferrari, but had the reliability and longevity of a mass-produced American car, or Japanese car, or whatever.

Instead we get this?

(https://car-pictures.cars.com/images/?IMG=USC90FOC331A021001.jpg&HEIGHT=600) 

Actually, IMO, that's one of the best-looking cars in its class.  Most of the character lines harmonize rather than conflict with each other.  The worst part of it, IMO, is that glob of tones and textures just forward of the front wheel.  I can come up with far uglier ones than that.  Like every Japanese car in the class that has front wheel openings reminiscent of a Morgan Plus 4 and rear wheel openings similar to that Fusion.

I'm sorry to see that Ford is not going to be making passenger cars--except for Mustangs--any more 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 04:54:25 PM

Years ago, a Ford exec got the bright idea of hanging a sexy looking body on a Ford Falcon platform.  It was a success.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 04:56:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 04:54:25 PM

Years ago, a Ford exec got the bright idea of hanging a sexy looking body on a Ford Falcon platform.  It was a success.

And it became my favorite car of all time, to this day. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:01:01 PM

To look like an exotic sports car brand, a car needs to make all sorts of compromises, including things like tires and wheels.  It needs to be low slung which means you'll bottom out a lot and scrape on driveways often.  You won't have a backseat or trunk worth spit.  You won't have good visibility outward.  And it will sound like a car with a puny 4 cylinder engine.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:01:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 02:37:25 PM

There will be folks who like the Corvette design and folks who don't.  There are folks who don't like the GT40 design.

This is my favorite car design right now, I'm sure some don't like it:

(https://i.imgur.com/Nifa87m.png)

I can't imagine who the person would be who could find the Ford GT40 ugly.  Seriously.

(https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/motorsport-magazine/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/02123427/fordgt40mkii.jpg)

As for that Ferrari, that's a good looker, IMO.

One might take issue with the "vent" behind the front wheel opening, just below the beltline.  Is it functional or is it just there to look "something-ish"?  And what are those textured air-trap areas down low bracketing the grille?  Do they let air flow through, and if so, into what?  For what purpose?  Or are they just for looks, because an expanse of sheet metal there would look odd or boring?  If they don't let air flow through, they are trapping it, increasing drag.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:04:07 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/TG6Qv9i.png)

I'm not sure, but it could be a vent for the brakes.  This isn't really a super sports car of course, it's more of a GT.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:06:30 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:39:19 PM

Beautiful car, CD!

I'm a big fan of Aston Martin, I think they're currently making the most beautiful cars available.  That's subjective opinion, of course, and I recognize it as such. ;)

(https://www.leasebusters.com/ResearchPhoto/11400/Teaser_alt.jpg)

Beautiful car indeed.  Someone might say that the roofline looks a bit like it's been chopped (in hot-rod terminology).  Someone--like me--might quibble about that crease/duct/whatever right behind the top of the front wheel opening, and might wonder if it's functional, or just for looks.
But still, beautiful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:06:40 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/wbCBcjO.png)

This is a 288 GTO.  A lot of vents for air handling.  If you build a car for the track, air handling becomes critical, usually involving getting heat out of something.

There are some cars today with good performance profiles that wilt on a track in short order.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:08:33 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/z2St4UW.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:09:48 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:14:02 PM

But you're just making my point.  I'd love something that is dependable and efficient-- far more so than a Ferrari-- but that LOOKED like a Ferrari.

There's no real reason Ford can't do that.

Pontiac did.  Once.  With aftermarket help.

(https://cdn1.mecum.com/auctions/sc0512/sc0512-125398/images/sc0512-125398_1.jpg?1337193269000)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:11:07 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/VgQDWvk.png)

I got to drive this one on a track in LV.

I got to drive this one on a track in Austin (COTA):

(https://i.imgur.com/5jS9a4o.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:16:27 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 04:56:50 PM

And it became my favorite car of all time, to this day. :)

Mine too!
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/dc/8b/97/dc8b97940eed4d278226f7625ab197a0.jpg)

Although I've heard that some people like the convertible version better.

(https://cdn1.mecum.com/auctions/ha0417/ha0417-280992/images/ha0417-280992_12@2x.jpg?1488904973000)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:19:05 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:06:40 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/wbCBcjO.png)

This is a 288 GTO.  A lot of vents for air handling.  If you build a car for the track, air handling becomes critical, usually involving getting heat out of something.

There are some cars today with good performance profiles that wilt on a track in short order.

Getting rid of the engine heat is always an issue with high-performance mid-engine cars.  The vents are functional.  Functional vents are good.  Scoops and vents just for looks--meh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:19:13 PM

The new Mustang is quite a capable car for relatively little money, though I do not like the 4 cylinder at all (it was a rental).  I'd "pony" up for the V8.  At one point, the wife wanted a convertible and it was down  to this or the BMW 240i (which I favored, but it's a lot more expensive).

She finally said a nice sun roof is fine, so viola, GTI Autobahn for a bit over $31 K.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 05:25:20 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:06:30 PM

Beautiful car indeed.  Someone might say that the roofline looks a bit like it's been chopped (in hot-rod terminology).  Someone--like me--might quibble about that crease/duct/whatever right behind the top of the front wheel opening, and might wonder if it's functional, or just for looks.
But still, beautiful.

if any other color

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:29:55 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/MZBHjUP.png)

Some kind of "feature" after the front wheel seems to me a thing.  Can anyone name the brand of this one?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 05:34:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:29:55 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/MZBHjUP.png)

Some kind of "feature" after the front wheel seems to me a thing.  Can anyone name the brand of this one?

Looks like a Jag to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:39:49 PM

:)  Here is a fairly cheap quasi-exotic looking vehicle.

(https://i.imgur.com/7QB9ccr.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:41:19 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/1Ew72bA.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 05:43:07 PM

Weather stream of unconsciousness?


You guys really suck at this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 05:44:05 PM

Y'all laugh, but the Miata has proven to be a heck of a track car over the years. It may not be a "supercar", but it's a hell of a lot more fun to drive a slow car fast than a fast car slow. 

I'm guessing the Supra would be a hoot on the track.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:46:55 PM

I agree, the CTS-V was somewhat scary on the track.  We also drove the ATS-V and I thought it was more "fun".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:52:43 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 05:25:20 PM

if any other color

Yeah, there is that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:58:19 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/Inqvg1s.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:00:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:29:55 PM

[img width=500 height=267.983]https://i.imgur.com/MZBHjUP.png[/img]

Some kind of "feature" after the front wheel seems to me a thing.  Can anyone name the brand of this one?

The magic of "Search Google for Image" tells me that it's a Jaguar ("Jag-you-ah") F-Type.  I thought it was, as it and the Ferrari and the Aston-Martin you and Utee posted upthread are the other two of the three semi-look-alikes.
Good-looking, just like the other two are.

My eye is attracted to the vertical slit just outboard of the grille, and then to the nostril outboard of that.  Are those functional air intakes, or are they just attention- and air-catchers?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:00:46 PM

For me, a part of the fun in driving is having a manual transmission.  Just about any of these sports cars can't be driven for real on regular roads, so what's the point?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:02:00 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:00:35 PM

My eye is attracted to the vertical slit just outboard of the grille, and then to the nostril outboard of that.  Are those functional air intakes, or are they just attention- and air-catchers?

Those are functional brake cooling ducts.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:04:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:39:49 PM

:)  Here is a fairly cheap quasi-exotic looking vehicle.

[img width=500 height=373.977]https://i.imgur.com/7QB9ccr.png[/img]

But not, IMO, good-looking.  The styling is awkward as hell.  What in Sam Hill is going on with the roofline?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:05:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:02:00 PM

Those are functional brake cooling ducts. 

The vertical slit and the nostril?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:08:59 PM

The vertical slit could be part of the intercooler, I don't know for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 06:57:24 PM

I still have this, but I think I'm going to get an S when we move to Florida. In WHITE.

(https://www.jonathanmotorcars.com/imagetag/498/38/l/Used-2014-Mercedes-Benz-E-Class-E-350-Sport-4MATIC-1537549287.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:58:19 PM

White would be good.  Are you anywhere near Sarasota?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 07:03:11 PM

A bit South, in Burnt Store Marina.

I just signed up for energy efficient windows today too. They will also be impact windows, so I get to remove the shutters, which look like shit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 07:08:36 PM

https://www.mlb.com/braves/fans/experiences-and-merchandise/fantasy-camp (https://www.mlb.com/braves/fans/experiences-and-merchandise/fantasy-camp)

I'm just south of Sarasota in January, if we get clear of this S out there.

I just noticed I am featured in this promo.

(https://i.imgur.com/8faRIFE.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 10:42:36 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:16:27 PM

Mine too!
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/dc/8b/97/dc8b97940eed4d278226f7625ab197a0.jpg)

Although I've heard that some people like the convertible version better.

(https://cdn1.mecum.com/auctions/ha0417/ha0417-280992/images/ha0417-280992_12@2x.jpg?1488904973000)

You and I have disagreed on many things over the years.  This is not one of those things. :)

I love the Shelbys and the KRs and the Cobras, but I'd be so happy simply to have a '65 or '66 289 convertible.

(https://cdn.dealeraccelerate.com/pjs/1/154/4976/1920x1440/1966-ford-mustang)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 10:52:35 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 05:09:48 PM

Pontiac did.  Once.  With aftermarket help.

(https://cdn1.mecum.com/auctions/sc0512/sc0512-125398/images/sc0512-125398_1.jpg?1337193269000)

Heh, I guess it was common back in the day.


(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbay2car.com%2Fimg%2FFerrari-Testarossa-replica-Pontiac-Fiero-V6-331796188242%2F0.jpg&hash=a1af3acd311619ff9bc8b880894cba62)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 11:04:21 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 10:42:36 PM

You and I have disagreed on many things over the years.  This is not one of those things. :)

I love the Shelbys and the KRs and the Cobras, but I'd be so happy simply to have a '65 or '66 289 convertible.

[img width=500 height=323.991]https://cdn.dealeraccelerate.com/pjs/1/154/4976/1920x1440/1966-ford-mustang[/img]

There's something about Mustangs that puts them in a different category than all other pony cars, even better (at times) pony cars.  It's not quite that they were first, because the Barracuda (not that it was much) actually came out first.
I do like the convertible version of the '65-66s too.  If I had one, and a sizeable budget, I'd do something very different with it than I would a 2+2 of the same era.  They'd both be very enjoyable to drive, but in very different ways.  I might even put an automatic in the convertible.
And maybe that's also a part of what made 1st-gen Mustangs great in a way that superseded their mere mechanics.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 08:04:25 AM

The Mustang-Camaro battles over the decades in the car mags were epic, especially the letters they'd publish the next month about how wrong they were.

The highest performance versions today are hugely different from their roots, and the most modest performance version today is faster than most of the fastest from the 60s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2020, 09:13:31 AM

47, wind and rain here today. Ugh. Yet another below-average April for Chicago.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2020, 09:18:42 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on April 25, 2020, 01:21:57 AM

Ah, the lakes. This is why the worst season for cities near the Great Lakes is actually the spring.  The MF lakes take so long to warm up it completely dominates the climate.  Spring does not exist in Milwaukee/Chicago, etc.

Amazing what 5-10 miles inland does in those locales.

Yep. The Lake Michigan Ice Box rages on, mostly until June, if there is any wind off of it. Last year she never got above 70 by us. So, even in the dog days of August, we'd approach the marina and the damn thermometer would go from 85 to 65 in about a mile.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 25, 2020, 09:26:53 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 07:08:36 PM

https://www.mlb.com/braves/fans/experiences-and-merchandise/fantasy-camp (https://www.mlb.com/braves/fans/experiences-and-merchandise/fantasy-camp)

I'm just south of Sarasota in January, if we get clear of this S out there.

I just noticed I am featured in this promo.

(https://i.imgur.com/8faRIFE.jpg)

a pic at the top of the page, but not in the Hall of Fame Campers at the bottom?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 09:32:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 06:57:24 PM

I still have this, but I think I'm going to get an S when we move to Florida. In WHITE.

I have a German car,it's black,says VW on the front and is a 2002 :cheer:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 09:34:29 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2020, 09:13:31 AM

47, wind and rain here today. Ugh. Yet another below-average April for Chicago.

It seems the temps have flatlined winter thru spring neither seasonal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 09:36:48 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 07:08:36 PM

https://www.mlb.com/braves/fans/experiences-and-merchandise/fantasy-camp (https://www.mlb.com/braves/fans/experiences-and-merchandise/fantasy-camp)

I'm just south of Sarasota in January, if we get clear of this S out there.

I just noticed I am featured in this promo.

[img width=500 height=198.976]https://i.imgur.com/8faRIFE.jpg[/img]

So Phil Niekro is back?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 09:41:35 AM

Heh, I don't really throw a knuckle ball.  I can but I can't control it.  The deal in this league is to throw strikes and let them hit it.  There aren't many big hitters so they often hit a grounder right at someone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2020, 11:25:16 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2020, 09:18:42 AM

Yep. The Lake Michigan Ice Box rages on, mostly until June, if there is any wind off of it. Last year she never got above 70 by us. So, even in the dog days of August, we'd approach the marina and the damn thermometer would go from 85 to 65 in about a mile.

One of the surprises of my life was when I was working in Chicago the summer I was 16.  I went to Lake Michigan to enjoy the water.  Waded in, and came right back out.  It felt like I had waded into ice water.
Froze my unprepared arse off at the College All-Star Game too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:14:39 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 09:36:48 AM

So Phil Niekro is back?

hah, go Joe Niekro on them with a nail file

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 12:42:34 PM

This is why I am so pessimistic about this whole topic and our future, reality sux.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/30/848307092/greenhouse-gas-emissions-predicted-to-fall-nearly-8-largest-decrease-ever?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/30/848307092/greenhouse-gas-emissions-predicted-to-fall-nearly-8-largest-decrease-ever?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates)

The IEA says the lower emissions will reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions that lead to climate change by almost 8% this year, which would be the largest annual decrease ever recorded.

But the U.N. has said global emissions must be cut that much every year for the next decade (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/14/834295861/carbon-emissions-are-falling-but-still-not-enough-scientists-say) in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid its worst impacts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2020, 01:50:01 PM

ambitious 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2020, 01:50:35 PM

we may have to thank the Chinese for saving the planet!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 02:20:24 PM

It obviously is very unlikely that CO2 emissions will stay this low for very long.  This was a very large economic hit, and not enough to matter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 12:55:18 PM

A freeze warning has been issued for the Chicago area early Saturday as an unusual polar vortex sweeps down from Canada.

The warning is in effect from midnight Friday through 7 a.m. Saturday, when temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s or lower 30s, according to the National Weather Service.

The late spring cold is being pushed into the area by a jet stream that is diving south and creating a “tropospheric polar vortex” over the Midwest and Northeast, the weather service said.

In the Chicago area, temperates will drop from the 40s through the 30s Friday, possibly dropping into the upper 20s during early Saturday. The record for Saturday’s date is 27 set in 1987.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 01:11:31 PM

It's 40 deg with a light flurry here/there was 75 on Sunday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 08, 2020, 01:16:39 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 12:55:18 PM

A freeze warning has been issued for the Chicago area early Saturday as an unusual polar vortex sweeps down from Canada.

The warning is in effect from midnight Friday through 7 a.m. Saturday, when temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s or lower 30s, according to the National Weather Service.

The late spring cold is being pushed into the area by a jet stream that is diving south and creating a “tropospheric polar vortex” over the Midwest and Northeast, the weather service said.

In the Chicago area, temperates will drop from the 40s through the 30s Friday, possibly dropping into the upper 20s during early Saturday. The record for Saturday’s date is 27 set in 1987.

Ironically, these will become more and more common as the climate warms.

The jet stream will continue to get weaker and slower, leading to more "polar vortexes" as the arctic warms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 01:22:27 PM

Well i signed up for slightly warmer winters but not colder springs.It's like freakin Scandanavia around here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 01:44:59 PM

Down to the low 40s here tonight.  Light rain today, we got a short walk in before the drops started.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 08, 2020, 01:48:19 PM

Do freezing temps kill the murder hornets? 

If so maybe I'll reconsider this SoCal thing...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 01:48:26 PM

I know some aspects of climate change have been suggested to cause certain weather related effects, but I'm not sure I think the predictions are very good yet.  Folks said we'd have more hurricanes and we haven't, more intensity, and we haven't, more tornadoes ... and we haven't, and the whole Europe freezing thing because of the collapse of the Conveyor ...

It's pretty facile I think to blame every extreme weather event on Climate Change.  It's much tougher to predict and be correct.  And when the predictions are wrong, it detracts from the credibility of the science.

Around here a few years ago we had a long lasting drought and that was blamed on CC, but the past few years have been wet and the various lake pools are replenished.  I recall seeing Lake Lanier circa 2008 or so and it looked like it would never get full again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 02:13:29 PM

https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-other-states-brace-for-polar-vortex-during-the-height-spring/R0xQbexkziVU4xvY1rCOIL/?fbclid=IwAR0ilIDuii1I0CtmAXf96kqb2EOVyXN-v9dmDLImLx7EE68p1t_MHMTanWE (https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-other-states-brace-for-polar-vortex-during-the-height-spring/R0xQbexkziVU4xvY1rCOIL/?fbclid=IwAR0ilIDuii1I0CtmAXf96kqb2EOVyXN-v9dmDLImLx7EE68p1t_MHMTanWE)

Temperatures are expected to drop 20 degrees or more below average in many areas, including North Georgia, where frost could settle under a lingering mass of cold air. 

WSB meteorologist Brian Monahan forecasts scattered showers from Friday afternoon to Friday evening for metro Atlanta as the cold front begins to move in. Temperatures are expected to reach 68 with a low of 50 degrees Friday. After that, the weather will turn dry. On Saturday, the low drops to 42 with a high of 64 degrees under mostly sunny skies. The forecast low will remain around 42 on Sunday, while the high is expected to rise to around 70 degrees. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 02:14:04 PM

There are no good predictions. The only stuff that's any good is historical data, and that didn't even get really good until the 1950's.

Temperature and rain gauge placement, etc. We do a pretty good job with this now, but it could be better.

For my rainfall models, I only use about the last 40 years of data. Most agencies use data back to about 1880, but I don't trust it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 02:15:04 PM

In PG, it's 86 today. 90 tomorrow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 08, 2020, 02:44:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 01:48:26 PM

I know some aspects of climate change have been suggested to cause certain weather related effects, but I'm not sure I think the predictions are very good yet.  Folks said we'd have more hurricanes and we haven't, more intensity, and we haven't, more tornadoes ... and we haven't, and the whole Europe freezing thing because of the collapse of the Conveyor ...

It's pretty facile I think to blame every extreme weather event on Climate Change.  It's much tougher to predict and be correct.  And when the predictions are wrong, it detracts from the credibility of the science.

Around here a few years ago we had a long lasting drought and that was blamed on CC, but the past few years have been wet and the various lake pools are replenished.  I recall seeing Lake Lanier circa 2008 or so and it looked like it would never get full again.

There were some that said we would have more hurricanes, but that wasn't the scientific consensus.  The scientific consensus was that hurricanes would be become stronger and more powerful.  That has certainly happened.

This also isn't a single weather event.  The Jet Stream has been weakening for years and this type of weather is well-studied and predictable.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 08, 2020, 02:54:22 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 02:14:04 PM

There are no good predictions. The only stuff that's any good is historical data, and that didn't even get really good until the 1950's.

Temperature and rain gauge placement, etc. We do a pretty good job with this now, but it could be better.

For my rainfall models, I only use about the last 40 years of data. Most agencies use data back to about 1880, but I don't trust it.

People really use rainfall data back from 1880?  That..seems...

Seems like a difficult thing to predict, given the rapid changes we have had over the last 140 years.  Climate change is really starting to ramp up now, deforestation was a huge problem until the 1960s, global dimming didn't start to reverse itself until 1990, etc. etc. etc.

That doesn't even take into account of the accuracy of measurements and record keeping from the 1800's.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on May 08, 2020, 03:55:41 PM

Well, it is currently 99 here and I am about ready to leave work, grab an adult beverage and go sit in my pool and enjoy the heat. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 04:06:05 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/mFwl7fX.png)

There is no evidence hurricanes net are becoming stronger, as yet.  There is some periodicity in that chart, not no upward trends.  That is the ACE measurement.  There is some indication they may be moving slower, that is rather preliminary.

This is for the North Atlantic only:

(https://i.imgur.com/xFM291m.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 08, 2020, 04:10:15 PM

What's an "adjusted" hurricane?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2020, 04:11:46 PM

detonating a nuclear device in the eye of a hurricane will adjust it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 04:33:51 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 08, 2020, 04:10:15 PM

What's an "adjusted" hurricane?

Adjusted for how they were counted "back in the day".  We would not have known about some hurricanes for example that never made landfall and stayed way out of the shipping lanes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 04:40:23 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 08, 2020, 04:11:46 PM

detonating a nuclear device in the eye of a hurricane will adjust it

Sounds reasonable,sheesh - Husker Prick Squad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on May 08, 2020, 04:41:32 PM

I still contend we have better baseball records than we do weather records.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on May 08, 2020, 04:43:34 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 08, 2020, 04:10:15 PM

What's an "adjusted" hurricane?

Ray Lewis after a lobotomy?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on May 08, 2020, 04:45:20 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 08, 2020, 04:43:34 PM

Ray Lewis after a lobotomy?

(https://turtleboysports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/ray-lewis-1.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 04:48:11 PM

Actually he didn't,just covered for his posse

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 04:48:33 PM

Warmer ocean temperatures should generate more and stronger hurricanes, but we don't know how many more and how much stronger, obviously.  It could be the impact is say a tenth of a hurricane a year, which would not be noticeable.  Slower moving hurricanes will drop more rain over a set area and cause problems of that ilk.

Global climate is enormously complex and my "basic take" is that it is far too complex to model with much certainty.  And I think there is some chance that climate change turns out to be worse than the models project, as well as better.  I also think we're going to run the experiment and find out.  Thus far, the hard evidence for a warming climate is perhaps not as strong as one might think and could be viewed as natural variability.  I don't think that is the case.

But, it is difficult to have much confidence in the models.  And I hope they are wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 04:53:33 PM

Temperature has been changing for millions of years. It's not gonna stop, whether that be up, or down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 05:03:07 PM

https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change (https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change)

I read her blog off and on.  I find it interesting, and confusing at times, the gist of it is this is too complicated to model.

Advocates for action say we shouldn't run that experiment on our planet. Curry's response?

"Well, I think the experiment is going to happen whether people say we should run it or not. We're not going to convince China and India and other developing countries not to burn fossil fuels."

"I walk to work, I drive a Prius, I'm a fanatic about turning lights off and keeping air conditioning high and heating low, so I try to personally minimize my own carbon footprint. But in terms of telling other people what to do, I don't have any big answers."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2020, 05:24:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 04:33:51 PM

Adjusted for how they were counted "back in the day".  We would not have known about some hurricanes for example that never made landfall and stayed way out of the shipping lanes.

so, they just guessed and added a few?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 06:04:54 PM

I imagine they looked at hurricane trends once satellites were up and running and calculated how many could have been missing in the past.

I don't know the specific methodology used.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on May 08, 2020, 06:06:48 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 04:48:11 PM

Actually he didn't,just covered for his posse

Vice versa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on May 08, 2020, 08:37:39 PM

People frantically covering up flowers this evening.   Gonna break a 73 year record low temp tonight and get down to 27.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2020, 09:31:47 PM

I have hostas left from the ex-wife and some left by the ex-GF

not covering anything

not real big on things I have to mow around

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 08, 2020, 10:34:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 05:03:07 PM

https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change (https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change)

I read her blog off and on.  I find it interesting, and confusing at times, the gist of it is this is too complicated to model.

Advocates for action say we shouldn't run that experiment on our planet. Curry's response?

"Well, I think the experiment is going to happen whether people say we should run it or not. We're not going to convince China and India and other developing countries not to burn fossil fuels."

"I walk to work, I drive a Prius, I'm a fanatic about turning lights off and keeping air conditioning high and heating low, so I try to personally minimize my own carbon footprint. But in terms of telling other people what to do, I don't have any big answers."

I'm not going to argue whether it's too late or not, because I think that's a moot point now. This article is 7 years old. A lot has changed since then, especially economically and technologically.

I've said it all before, and the pandemic has only exacerbated and accelerated the inevitable demise and eventually oil & gas. Renewables are going to win out in power generation, and the combination of electrification, energy storage technologies, energy efficiency, and hydrogen will displace most of the remaining oil & gas demand.

Even India & China are figuring this out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 06:54:31 AM

I am completely convinced it is too later, way too late.  People are rearranging deck chairs.  Cutting a bit here and there, yay for that.

Projected CO2 production by 2030 at this rate will probably be 90% of what we're doing today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2020, 07:53:08 AM

Everyone take a deep breath. And please, do not exhale.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 08:47:20 AM

http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422 (http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422)

Assuming a climate system response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that’s of median strength, the three scenarios reduce the SAT in 2100 between 0.6 and 1.1 C relative to the “no climate policy” case. But because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1 C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2 C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6 C — far exceeding the 2 C goal.

“The Paris agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, but it is only a step,” said Monier. “It puts us on the right path to keep warming under 3 C, but even under the same level of commitment of the Paris agreement after 2030, our study indicates a 95 percent probability that the world will warm by more than 2 C by 2100.”

(SAT = Surface Air Temperature).

This presumes the targets will be achieved of course, which is looking rather unlikely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 08:50:39 AM

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions/)

The majority of the carbon emission reduction pledges for 2030 that 184 countries made under the Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement) aren’t nearly enough to keep global warming well below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius). Some countries won’t achieve their pledges, and some of the world's largest carbon emitters will continue to increase their emissions, according to a panel of world-class climate scientists.

“Countries need to double and triple their 2030 reduction commitments to be aligned with the Paris target,” says Sir Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and co-author of the report that closely examined the 184 voluntary pledges under the Paris Agreement.

“We have the technology and knowledge to make those emissions cuts, but what’s missing are strong enough policies and regulations to make it happen,” Watson says in an interview. “Right now the world is on a pathway to between 3 and 4 degrees C (5.5 and 7F) by the end of the century.”

I can of course point to some local progress and how this place or that place has gone renewable, but that doesn't mean anything REAL is happening globally.  It's spin, and I'm allergic to spin, having lived in a spin world for most of my career.  The Paris Targets are insufficient, and the planet is not going to meet them anyway.

Every year makes this more and more evident and makes the problem worse and worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 08:59:40 AM

https://www.axios.com/paris-agreement-countries-meeting-pledges-1261f497-3ec7-4192-ba21-83ae339762be.html (https://www.axios.com/paris-agreement-countries-meeting-pledges-1261f497-3ec7-4192-ba21-83ae339762be.html)

There are plenty of articles on this topic.  The COVID thing has of course caused a reduction in CO2 emissions.  We'd have to do this every year to get close to the Paris targets by 2030, or something equivalent.  It's simply not going to happen.

And, the targets are insufficient anyway.  Maybe we manage some drop in CO2 output, but if the models are correct, it's not nearly enough fast enough to make much difference, not even enough to measure reliably.

So, we're going to find out what happens for real.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 09:11:46 AM

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/only-2-countries-are-meeting-their-climate-pledges-heres-how-the-10-worst-could-improve (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/only-2-countries-are-meeting-their-climate-pledges-heres-how-the-10-worst-could-improve)

Those 10 countries account for approximately 70 percent of the world’s emissions, and all except one — India — are not on pace to meet the climate goals needed to prevent 2 degrees Celsius of warming. (Reminder: Two degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels would be catastrophic, but even 1.5 degrees could make Earth inhospitable to human life (https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/half-degree-and-world-apart-difference-climate-impacts-between-15-c-and-2-c-warming) and the planet is already halfway there.)

. Germany remains Europe’s biggest consumer of coal (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/can-germany-revive-its-stalled-transition-to-clean-energy), and energy transition to renewables has arguably stalled.

Even though the country continues to roll out bids to have net-zero emissions by 2050  (https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-09-24/germany-politics-climate-change-are-shifting-beneath-merkel-s-feet)and new climate policies like carbon prices for economic sectors, transportation and buildings, Hohne said what Germany lacks is a long-term vision.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 09, 2020, 10:30:32 AM

I know I'm not going to change your mind. My point is just that there is that economic considerations favor shutting down coal, investing heavily in renewables, electrification, energy efficiency, and other emerging technologies, where there are already a lot and will be an increasing number of jobs, especially blue collar ones. This is happening faster in Europe and elsewhere, of course, but it's happening to some extent throughout the world.

None of those articles are from this year, and we'll see what happens in the aftermath of the pandemic. That is not only having a temporary impact on reducing emissions but there should be some longer-term benefits, as people travel less (especially by plane) and more people work from home, which I think will accelerate the growth for roof-top solar as residential energy bills increase while commercial demand goes down.

There are other factors that are unpredictable right now, of course, with the elections being a big one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 10:42:45 AM

Yes, it is happening to SOME EXTENT around the world.  But, it clearly is not happening nearly fast enough.  That is a simple fact.

As to what miracles may ensue in the future, we shall see.  I'm backing my projections up with pretty solid data, not wishful thinking.

It's not going to be nearly enough nearly soon enough to alter the trajectory in any measurable way, so in 20 years or so we should have pretty obvious information as to how good the models have been.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:50:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 05:03:07 PM

https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change (https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change)

I read her blog off and on.  I find it interesting, and confusing at times, the gist of it is this is too complicated to model.

Advocates for action say we shouldn't run that experiment on our planet. Curry's response?

"Well, I think the experiment is going to happen whether people say we should run it or not. We're not going to convince China and India and other developing countries not to burn fossil fuels."

"I walk to work, I drive a Prius, I'm a fanatic about turning lights off and keeping air conditioning high and heating low, so I try to personally minimize my own carbon footprint. But in terms of telling other people what to do, I don't have any big answers."

Heh!  That was an editorial masquerading as a news story.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 10:53:54 AM

I mentioned I worked most of my career in a "spin world".  Early on, I bought into the spin, all the projections and promises.  I thought they were great.  That couldn't last of course because none of them were met, ever.  It was just opiate for the masses.  The company spent huge sums on various and sundry failed projects, I'm talking billions.  And while the spin sounded exciting to the inexperienced, after a while seasoned folks could just run the numbers and see "Hey, this isn't going to happen."  And it never did, never, not once.

I was directly involved in one of those efforts and got into considerably trouble for pointing out the obvious.  My boss' boss told me to zip it, even though he knew what I was writing was dead on the Truth.  There were PTBs behind this effort at a much higher level than me, and TRUTH did not matter, spin mattered, and perception.

That project ingloriously disappeared about two years later.  No epitaph, no analysis, not "what went wrong", it just disappeared.  And the Senior VP who "led" it got promoted.  I wasted about four years of my career on the absurdity of it.  It was technically interesting, so there was that.

There was another smaller project that was being reviewed and our head of the patent division asked me to come with him.  I think everyone in the room was 4-6 levels above me.  I planned to sit quietly and listen to what I KNEW would be rosy burfle, and it was, but the patent guy after one of the VPs claimed to have a great patent protection on the project turned to me and asked "Is that true?".  I just said "No."  It wasn't remotely true.  There was this silence in the room for about 5 seconds and then someone else picked up the "discussion" as if nothing happened.  I realized he had brought me along knowing what would happen.

Sure enough in about a year that stupid project also died.  I don't know how they stay in business.

The message is Life is Tough, and it gets tougher if you believe in Fairy Tales instead of the Cold Hard Truth.  It also pays to keep your mouth shut at times.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 10:55:10 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:50:30 AM

Heh!  That was an editorial masquerading as a news story.

It was an interview with her, that's all.  She has an interesting on line blog.  She is a thorn in the side of many because she's not a kook and has serious credentials.

I appreciate her expressions of doubt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:59:59 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 09, 2020, 10:30:32 AM

I know I'm not going to change your mind. My point is just that there is that economic considerations favor shutting down coal, investing heavily in renewables, electrification, energy efficiency, and other emerging technologies, where there are already a lot and will be an increasing number of jobs, especially blue collar ones. This is happening faster in Europe and elsewhere, of course, but it's happening to some extent throughout the world.

None of those articles are from this year, and we'll see what happens in the aftermath of the pandemic. That is not only having a temporary impact on reducing emissions but there should be some longer-term benefits, as people travel less (especially by plane) and more people work from home, which I think will accelerate the growth for roof-top solar as residential energy bills increase while commercial demand goes down.

There are other factors that are unpredictable right now, of course, with the elections being a big one.

How big an impact do you see the elections making?

How much closer will we be to our goals by 2030 if the right people win in 2020?  10%?  1%?  0.1%?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 11:05:18 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 09:11:46 AM

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/only-2-countries-are-meeting-their-climate-pledges-heres-how-the-10-worst-could-improve (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/only-2-countries-are-meeting-their-climate-pledges-heres-how-the-10-worst-could-improve)

Those 10 countries account for approximately 70 percent of the world’s emissions, and all except one — India — are not on pace to meet the climate goals needed to prevent 2 degrees Celsius of warming. (Reminder: Two degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels would be catastrophic, but even 1.5 degrees could make Earth inhospitable to human life (https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/half-degree-and-world-apart-difference-climate-impacts-between-15-c-and-2-c-warming) and the planet is already halfway there.)

. Germany remains Europe’s biggest consumer of coal (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/can-germany-revive-its-stalled-transition-to-clean-energy), and energy transition to renewables has arguably stalled.

Even though the country continues to roll out bids to have net-zero emissions by 2050  (https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-09-24/germany-politics-climate-change-are-shifting-beneath-merkel-s-feet)and new climate policies like carbon prices for economic sectors, transportation and buildings, Hohne said what Germany lacks is a long-term vision.

How much warmer are we than "pre-industrial levels" right now?  If we use the Little Ice Age as the pre-industrial baseline, we've already reached 1.5 degrees, haven't we?
Which reminds me, somewhere I have read that industrialization bears some responsibility for the end of the Little Ice Age.  I wonder if that's true, and if so, what to make of it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 11:10:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 10:55:10 AM

It was an interview with her, that's all.  She has an interesting on line blog.  She is a thorn in the side of many because she's not a kook and has serious credentials.

I appreciate her expressions of doubt.

It wasn't an interview.  It was some audio of her answering questions that we did not hear being asked of her, with the "interviewer" injecting his voice-over skepticism in between playing bits of her comments.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 09, 2020, 11:57:14 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:59:59 AM

How big an impact do you see the elections making?

How much closer will we be to our goals by 2030 if the right people win in 2020?  10%?  1%?  0.1%?

At least 10%, certainly in comparison to Trump trying to delay the inevitable, but I don't want to make this a political debate, since this really shouldn't be a political issue in the first place.

Here are Biden's plans:
https://joebiden.com/climate/
 (https://joebiden.com/climate/)https://joebiden.com/9-key-elements-of-joe-bidens-plan-for-a-clean-energy-revolution/ (https://joebiden.com/9-key-elements-of-joe-bidens-plan-for-a-clean-energy-revolution/) (this is the summary version)

It's largely in line with the most progressive states like California, Hawaii, and New York and developed countries in Europe, though I think with the right people under him he could/would make his plans even more aggressive. His overall strategy is more sensible than Sanders' plans were, but they could be scaled up further and faster.

There's a lot being done at the state and local levels, though. For example, Virginia just passed major legislation to effectively replace its coal generation with renewables and have a plan to transition away from gas, too. Wind generation has already taken off and continues to grow throughout the Great Plains and it's going to be built offshore in the Northeast and California next.... Solar still has a lot of growth potential throughout the country from roof-top to utility-scale systems, especially in southern states, which have more restrictive policies since their utilities are fully regulated and large solar companies like Sunrun can't operate there because customers aren't allowed to get their systems through financing or lease agreements (which have no up-front costs, so they split the savings instead).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 09, 2020, 01:55:43 PM

32 and snow on the roofs this morning it melted on the wamer ground.Hi today 43 and cloudy - cold.More snow maybe tommorow,at least football season is warming up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 01:56:25 PM

Numbers.  I deal with numbers, not vague promises.

Politicians promise "stuff" and rarely deliver, or they promise something by 2050, which means they don't even need to try more than some PR stuff.

The numbers are irrevocable.  The spin is awesome, and irrelevant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 09, 2020, 02:12:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 10:53:54 AM

The message is Life is Tough, and it gets tougher if you believe in Fairy Tales instead of the Cold Hard Truth.  It also pays to keep your mouth shut at times.

 message of Pandora's Box - Hope remains.Why are people called whistle blowers rather than righteous souls or truth tellers.Ramuis was right a little revolution every now and then is a good thing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 03:22:57 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 09, 2020, 11:57:14 AM

At least 10%, certainly in comparison to Trump trying to delay the inevitable, but I don't want to make this a political debate, since this really shouldn't be a political issue in the first place.

Here are Biden's plans:
https://joebiden.com/climate/
 (https://joebiden.com/climate/)https://joebiden.com/9-key-elements-of-joe-bidens-plan-for-a-clean-energy-revolution/ (https://joebiden.com/9-key-elements-of-joe-bidens-plan-for-a-clean-energy-revolution/) (this is the summary version)

It's largely in line with the most progressive states like California, Hawaii, and New York and developed countries in Europe, though I think with the right people under him he could/would make his plans even more aggressive. His overall strategy is more sensible than Sanders' plans were, but they could be scaled up further and faster.

There's a lot being done at the state and local levels, though. For example, Virginia just passed major legislation to effectively replace its coal generation with renewables and have a plan to transition away from gas, too. Wind generation has already taken off and continues to grow throughout the Great Plains and it's going to be built offshore in the Northeast and California next.... Solar still has a lot of growth potential throughout the country from roof-top to utility-scale systems, especially in southern states, which have more restrictive policies since their utilities are fully regulated and large solar companies like Sunrun can't operate there because customers aren't allowed to get their systems through financing or lease agreements (which have no up-front costs, so they split the savings instead).

I'll echo CD's comments.  Those seem more like political promises than concrete plans.  He may be committed to using executive orders more than any previous president, but for anything lasting he has to get those ideas passed through Congress so that he can sign them into law, and then Congress has to fund it year after year, etc., etc., etc.

I would guess that, assuming he's elected, he'll be able to make a 1% difference if he's lucky.  He's never been a chief executive of anything.  He's been a legislator his entire professional life.  Very different roles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 03:29:06 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 09, 2020, 02:12:51 PM

message of Pandora's Box - Hope remains.Why are people called whistle blowers rather than righteous souls or truth tellers.Ramuis was right a little revolution every now and then is a good thing

Who's "Ramuis"?
Jefferson said that the tree of liberty needed to be watered with the blood of tyrants and patriots.  That's easy to say in the abstract.  But he wasn't inviting anyone to come shed blood to water any tree of liberty at Monticello.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 09, 2020, 03:35:25 PM

Marko(Sean Connery) - The Hunt for Red October at the end when they are towing the ship up that river and he's talking to Jack Ryan(Alex Baldwin)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 03:43:06 PM

Never saw the movie.  Read the book and liked it.
A revolution may be necessary now and then, but "a good thing"?
More often than not, things are worse afterward than before.  The American Revolution is one of the few that didn't end either in bloody failure or with the victorious leader installing himself as a tyrant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 04:17:45 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 11:05:18 AM

How much warmer are we than "pre-industrial levels" right now?  If we use the Little Ice Age as the pre-industrial baseline, we've already reached 1.5 degrees, haven't we?
Which reminds me, somewhere I have read that industrialization bears some responsibility for the end of the Little Ice Age.  I wonder if that's true, and if so, what to make of it.

The Little Ice age only happened in the Northern Hemisphere (at most) and is way overblown.  It was not a global event of any real significance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:21:16 PM

There is still debate about the Little Ice age, circa 1550-1850.  It coincided with an unusual lack of subspots (Maunder minimum).  They two things may or may not be related.  Coincidentally, we have a sunspot lessening now, which might suggest we could be going into a period of cooling, perhaps offset by CO2 induced warming.  I know the measurements of solar flux are not showing much if any change, so this notion is "notional".

It would be ironic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 04:39:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 04:48:33 PM

Warmer ocean temperatures should generate more and stronger hurricanes, but we don't know how many more and how much stronger, obviously.  It could be the impact is say a tenth of a hurricane a year, which would not be noticeable.  Slower moving hurricanes will drop more rain over a set area and cause problems of that ilk.

Global climate is enormously complex and my "basic take" is that it is far too complex to model with much certainty.  And I think there is some chance that climate change turns out to be worse than the models project, as well as better.  I also think we're going to run the experiment and find out.  Thus far, the hard evidence for a warming climate is perhaps not as strong as one might think and could be viewed as natural variability.  I don't think that is the case.

But, it is difficult to have much confidence in the models.  And I hope they are wrong.

In bold:  That's bulljive.  We have been incredibly accurate modeling global warming. Remember, we aren't looking for perfection.  There are always tweaks and new things to add/change, but at this point they are minute adjustments to very accurate and well defined models.

In Italics:  It absolutely is, and we know it.  Natural variability has been ruled out.

1.  We know CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  We know it retains heat, and we know about how much it retains.  It's physics, and can be duplicated in a lab in closed environment.
2.  We know that CO2 levels have risen dramatically since the industrial age, and we can use physics to determine how much more energy will be absorbed by the sun as a result. 
3.  We know this CO2 is from the burning of fossil fuels due to the unique carbon isotope found in fossil fuels.
4.  We know that warmer air holds more water vapor, which itself is a greenhouse gas.  We know that ice reflects the sun's energy, and as ice recedes the earth will absorb more heat.  We know that as the tundra melts it releases methane, another greenhouse gas.  We know that the rain forest is shrinking every year, and that is additional carbon released into the atmosphere.   All of this is factored into our climate models, along with other factors.  This means that all models will show some variability, but that isn't the point.  The point is that ALL of them show continued significant warming due to the burning of fossil fuels.
5.  You should absolutely have confidence in the models, since they all say the same thing, have been very accurate, and have actually slightly underestimated global warming.

The "natural variability" thing is absolutely ridiculous at this point, because science has been searching for this for years.

1.  We are actually slowly heading into an ice age based upon our stage in the Milankovitch cycle.  So global warming wouldn't fit with the typical causes of previous periods of warming and cooling.  I can describe Milankovitch cycles in more detail if you'd like. 
2.  The sun's output has been at unusually low levels, and yet we still continue to warm.

Just like this 2 options above, every other theory for a "natural" global warming cycle has been systematically ruled out.

Man made climate change is real, it is predictable, and it is measurable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 04:41:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:21:16 PM

There is still debate about the Little Ice age, circa 1550-1850.  It coincided with an unusual lack of subspots (Maunder minimum).  They two things may or may not be related.  Coincidentally, we have a sunspot lessening now, which might suggest we could be going into a period of cooling, perhaps offset by CO2 induced warming.  I know the measurements of solar flux are not showing much if any change, so this notion is "notional".

It would be ironic.

That's correct, we are in a period of reduced solar activity, and have been for about 20 years or so.  And yet, global temperatures continue to rise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:55:28 PM

I used to have these discussions with a fellow at work.  I had Science and Nature come across my desk and I'd try and read the articles about climate change, they were pretty involved, a lot of lingo and acronyms.  For me to opine that the Earth's climate is unbelievably complex is hardly something extraordinary to say, and to opine these models - there are at least seven major ones - are comparatively simple, is hardly a unique outrageous position.

It's not even agreed upon that the global temperature can be accurately measured.  Why do we have competing models?  Because they use different assumptions and different coefficients about thinks like the impact of cloud cover, methane release, aerosols, impact of humidity, changes in wind and ocean currents, changes in albedo, changes in tree cover,  change in the jet stream, you name it, most of these papers were efforts to refine ONE coefficient or term in ONE model.  If a good model existed, we have that, not seven.  And we wouldn't be spending considerable effort trying to tweak them so as to back fit them against the data we have from the past.

The ONLY way to try and develop a model is to have GOOD DATA from the past against which the model is adjusted to get a fit.  And that is exactly what the modelers do, the continually adjust the fit against past data.

As I said, it well could be that climate change is going to be WORSE than the models forecast.  There are several metrics that could spiral out of control in nonlinear fashion, permafriost melting being one.

If the models actually work - and we won't know that for some time - it will be by chance.  All models are wrong, some are useful.

At any rate, I realized after a while that it doesn't matter in the real world because we, humanity, are going to run the experiment and find out.  All this Happy Talk about how this minor country or that minor city is going renewable is just that, happy talk and spin.  This train has done run.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 04:58:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 04:06:05 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/mFwl7fX.png)

There is no evidence hurricanes net are becoming stronger, as yet.  There is some periodicity in that chart, not no upward trends.  That is the ACE measurement.  There is some indication they may be moving slower, that is rather preliminary.

This is for the North Atlantic only:

(https://i.imgur.com/xFM291m.png)

both of these actually somewhat refer to the total number of hurricanes.  What you are actually looking for is the Power Dissipation Index, which measures the duration and intensity (wind speed) of storms, and research has found that since the mid-1970s, there has been an increase in the energy of storms.

For instance, maybe you have 3 less hurricanes than normal, but you have a bunch of category 4s and 5s...


Here ya go -- but note that 2018 and 2019

(https://i.imgur.com/yIBvMJq.png)
Keep in mind that the last two years (not pictured) move back towards the blue dotted line.

Here's more information if you want to read more:

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 05:01:29 PM

So, what you need to show is whatever metric shows what you want it to show, while disregarding anything else, like ACE.

I get the impression you aren't understanding the point of my posts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 05:06:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:55:28 PM

I used to have these discussions with a fellow at work.  I had Science and Nature come across my desk and I'd try and read the articles about climate change, they were pretty involved, a lot of lingo and acronyms.  For me to opine that the Earth's climate is unbelievably complex is hardly something extraordinary to say, and to opine these models - there are at least seven major ones - are comparatively simple, is hardly a unique outrageous position.

It's not even agreed upon that the global temperature can be accurately measured.  Why do we have competing models?  Because they use different assumptions and different coefficients about thinks like the impact of cloud cover, methane release, aerosols, impact of humidity, changes in wind and ocean currents, changes in albedo, changes in tree cover,  change in the jet stream, you name it, most of these papers were efforts to refine ONE coefficient or term in ONE model.  If a good model existed, we have that, not seven.  And we wouldn't be spending considerable effort trying to tweak them so as to back fit them against the data we have from the past.

The ONLY way to try and develop a model is to have GOOD DATA from the past against which the model is adjusted to get a fit.  And that is exactly what the modelers do, the continually adjust the fit against past data.

As I said, it well could be that climate change is going to be WORSE than the models forecast.  There are several metrics that could spiral out of control in nonlinear fashion, permafriost melting being one.

If the models actually work - and we won't know that for some time - it will be by chance.  All models are wrong, some are useful.

At any rate, I realized after a while that it doesn't matter in the real world because we, humanity, are going to run the experiment and find out.  All this Happy Talk about how this minor country or that minor city is going renewable is just that, happy talk and spin.  This train has done run.

In bold:  Complex does not mean impossible to model.  And frankly, it ain't all that complex.  It's the 80/20 rule.  We can get 80% of the way there pretty easily.  The last 20% is much tougher.  We have models dating from as far back as the 1960s...and they are pretty darn accurate.

In Italics:  We can absolutely accurately measure global temperatures.  And we are getting more accurate every day.  Note that all temperature measurements come with a degree of confidence.  They aren't perfect, but they are amazingly accurate, as multiple methods and multiple different studies AGREE with each other.

You are making the same flaw over and over.  Perfection is impossible to reach, and IS NOT THE GOAL.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 05:08:11 PM

I completely disagree.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 05:09:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 05:01:29 PM

So, what you need to show is whatever metric shows what you want it to show, while disregarding anything else, like ACE.

I get the impression you aren't understanding the point of my posts.

I'm not the one cherry picking data here...

I don't even know what ACE means, but I'm willing to look at anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 05:13:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 05:08:11 PM

I completely disagree. 

That's just silly.  

There's one thing I've learned over time.  No matter how much I may hate it, or how much it may annoy me, or even how much I disagree with it, if presented with enough evidence I will change my mind.

The evidence for man made climate change is incredibly overwhelming.  But worse?  There is no evidence at all against it.

That's enough for me, and it should be enough for you.

But I'll keep an open mind, in case you find some evidence to the contrary.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 05:22:25 PM

I think you have completely misunderstood my position because you read what you think I am saying instead of what I have actually said, so your arguments go astray into things like "It's clear we have man made warming", which is fine, I've never asserted otherwise.

I had 40 years of working with pretty complex models for naturalistic events.  I have seen many cases where we thought we had a pretty good model because it aligned with the PAST and it turned out it missed something critical and could not predict the FUTURE, at all.

All models are wrong, all of them.  And the more complex  the phenomenon one is trying to model, the greater the chances they are critically wrong.

Our climate is horrendously complex.  Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't read enough about climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 05:56:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 05:22:25 PM

I think you have completely misunderstood my position because you read what you think I am saying instead of what I have actually said, so your arguments go astray into things like "It's clear we have man made warming", which is fine, I've never asserted otherwise.

I had 40 years of working with pretty complex models for naturalistic events.  I have seen many cases where we thought we had a pretty good model because it aligned with the PAST and it turned out it missed something critical and could not predict the FUTURE, at all.

All models are wrong, all of them.  And the more complex  the phenomenon one is trying to model, the greater the chances they are critically wrong.

Our climate is horrendously complex.  Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't read enough about climate.

Except this is the fatal flaw with your reasoning.

We are making predictions.  We are not looking for perfection.  Our models have been right in predicting increases so far.  They have been right when applying this data and moving backwards.  They continue to get better and better.

Might something unforeseen change our inputs?  Absolutely.  Will that change our outcome?  Probably.

But ..

Will there be a wild swing in direction or another?  Almost certainly not, but it is possible.  For example, nuclear winter, or a massive volcano, asteroid impact, cheap carbon capture system invented, global pandemic...

At the end of the day it doesn't matter.  The models say that burning fossil fuels = climate change, and they have predicted with amazing accuracy the rate at which climate change will happen. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 06:28:10 PM

My statement about models is a common and oft cited quip used in science.

"All models are wrong, some models are useful."

AS for predicting "with amazing accuracy", in my view, that assertion is not supported by facts.  We can't explain the Little Ice Age, of it's end, or the warming in the early 20th century, and we have at least seven models.  Why so many?  If one is "amazing", why not use that one?  

They are all force fit to past "data".  There is no other way to devise a model.  You take the data available, find a CORRELATING EQUATION, and hope it predicts.  Someone else finds a different CORRELATING EQUATION using a different set of assumptions and it too fit existing data, and you hope that predicts.  And there are SEVEN of them, last I counted.  Seven different models.  And then the IPCC gives a range of SAT of 2°C to 7°C in prediction, which is not what I'd call amazingly accurate.  The lower range means things will be difficult, the upper range is effectively catastrophic.


This really is a classic story of misapplication of scientific tools, in my view.  I've seen it many times.  I've done it a few times myself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 06:51:21 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 04:39:33 PM

In bold:  That's bulljive.  We have been incredibly accurate modeling global warming. Remember, we aren't looking for perfection.  There are always tweaks and new things to add/change, but at this point they are minute adjustments to very accurate and well defined models.

In Italics:  It absolutely is, and we know it.  Natural variability has been ruled out.

1.  We know CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  We know it retains heat, and we know about how much it retains.  It's physics, and can be duplicated in a lab in closed environment.
2.  We know that CO2 levels have risen dramatically since the industrial age, and we can use physics to determine how much more energy will be absorbed by the sun as a result. 
3.  We know this CO2 is from the burning of fossil fuels due to the unique carbon isotope found in fossil fuels.
4.  We know that warmer air holds more water vapor, which itself is a greenhouse gas.  We know that ice reflects the sun's energy, and as ice recedes the earth will absorb more heat.  We know that as the tundra melts it releases methane, another greenhouse gas.  We know that the rain forest is shrinking every year, and that is additional carbon released into the atmosphere.  All of this is factored into our climate models, along with other factors.  This means that all models will show some variability, but that isn't the point.  The point is that ALL of them show continued significant warming due to the burning of fossil fuels.
5.  You should absolutely have confidence in the models, since they all say the same thing, have been very accurate, and have actually slightly underestimated global warming.

The "natural variability" thing is absolutely ridiculous at this point, because science has been searching for this for years.

1.  We are actually slowly heading into an ice age based upon our stage in the Milankovitch cycle.  So global warming wouldn't fit with the typical causes of previous periods of warming and cooling.  I can describe Milankovitch cycles in more detail if you'd like. 
2.  The sun's output has been at unusually low levels, and yet we still continue to warm.

Just like this 2 options above, every other theory for a "natural" global warming cycle has been systematically ruled out.

Man made climate change is real, it is predictable, and it is measurable.

It's my understanding the CO2 is not the major culprit (not being all that effective as a heat-retainer), but is more a marker for other gasses that are more effective at that.
Whoever coined the term "greenhouse gas" deserves an award for creativity, because greenhouses do not work the way the atmosphere does.

P.S.  I am not denying global warming/climate change, nor am I denying that humans have contributed to it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 06:58:49 PM

So, if we could snap our fingers and make it happen, is there a year in history where the climate was at its optimal state?  Was it during the Greek cold age or the Roman warm age or the Dark Age cold age or the Medieval warm age or the Little Ice Age or what?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 09, 2020, 07:00:05 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 06:28:10 PM

My statement about models is a common and oft cited quip used in science.

"All models are wrong, some models are useful."

AS for predicting "with amazing accuracy", in my view, that assertion is not supported by facts.  We can't explain the Little Ice Age, of it's end, or the warming in the early 20th century, and we have at least seven models.  Why so many?  If one is "amazing", why not use that one? 

They are all force fit to past "data".  There is no other way to devise a model.  You take the data available, find a CORRELATING EQUATION, and hope it predicts.  Someone else finds a different CORRELATING EQUATION using a different set of assumptions and it too fit existing data, and you hope that predicts.  And there are SEVEN of them, last I counted.  Seven different models.  And then the IPCC gives a range of SAT of 2°C to 7°C in prediction, which is not what I'd call amazingly accurate.  The lower range means things will be difficult, the upper range is effectively catastrophic.


This really is a classic story of misapplication of scientific tools, in my view.  I've seen it many times.  I've done it a few times myself.

The range of 2-7 degrees is due to US. How fast we reduce carbon emissions. 

there are more than 7 models. All are in agreeement. More CO2= more warming. 

You’re too caught up in the range of uncertainty and you’re missing the entire stated purpose of the models in the first place. 

Science is pointing to points scored to show who won the game, you’re stuck on 3rd down yards by team. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 07:00:56 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 06:51:21 PM

It's my understanding the CO2 is not the major culprit (not being all that effective as a heat-retainer), but is more a marker for other gasses that are more effective at that.
Whoever coined the term "greenhouse gas" deserves an award for creativity, because greenhouses do not work the way the atmosphere does.

P.S.  I am not denying global warming/climate change, nor am I denying that humans have contributed to it.

CO2 is the major culprit.  Methane is more efficient, but shorter lived, and present in much lower concentrations.

CO2 by itself is a very effective heat absorber because there is relatively a lot of it, and the concentration is changing rather quickly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 07:02:18 PM

http://climate.calcommons.org/article/why-so-many-climate-models (http://climate.calcommons.org/article/why-so-many-climate-models)

My bad, THIRTY models.  THIRTY.

I am pretty confident I have a very solid understanding of the purpose of models.  I have considerable experience in their development and use.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 08:44:47 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 03:22:57 PM

I'll echo CD's comments.  Those seem more like political promises than concrete plans.  He may be committed to using executive orders more than any previous president, but for anything lasting he has to get those ideas passed through Congress so that he can sign them into law, and then Congress has to fund it year after year, etc., etc., etc.

I was laughing while reading that "Biden plan".  I'm amazed anyone would be taken in by such vague malarkey.

I guess my notion of the term "plan" is different from some political piece that has not a single specific in it, which is what we usually get of course from campaigns.

Well, there are a few specifics of course which implementation would be tied up in courts and/or make a very slight difference in anything.

Show me a plan anywhere that provides an outline of HOW to cut CO2 emissions (not some goal), how much that will COST, and what the end benefit will be according to the various models.  That would be a plan.

For example, let's imagine the task if to shutter every coal plant in the US by 2035 (or nearly every).  They will be replaced with what specifically, costing $X, and reducing CO2 production by Y gigatons, which would shave how many degrees off the projected increase in T.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2020, 01:00:30 PM

Cincydawg might like this about how wine-growing may adapt to a hotter climate.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/wines-israel-negev-desert-represent-future-viticulture-180974590/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/wines-israel-negev-desert-represent-future-viticulture-180974590/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 01:24:23 PM

The wine growing regions are in close to a panic over this.  Most of them can't move north for any number of reasons.  They all tell me they have noticed an impact already, earlier ripening dates etc.  They also are seeing more late frost dates, which is bad also.

These folks are VERY sensitive to climate/weather obviously.  Napa Valley gets cooler as you go south, reverse of normal.  We might see more Zinfandel out of CA as a result.

I gave one of two talks at a wine conference in France a few years back and the other talk was about how this was going to impact their wine production and quality.  It was interesting, as much as I could make it out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 01:32:46 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 10, 2020, 01:00:30 PM

Cincydawg might like this about how wine-growing may adapt to a hotter climate.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/wines-israel-negev-desert-represent-future-viticulture-180974590/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/wines-israel-negev-desert-represent-future-viticulture-180974590/)

Ya but that sux for lagering beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 01:37:53 PM

Malbec in Argentina is grown in very arid conditions, often at high altitude, with irrigation.  The advantage is there it gets cool at night which is critical for some varietals.

Israel should try zinfandel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2020, 02:20:38 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 01:32:46 PM

Ya but that sux for lagering beer

Ahh, it can't be more than an extra dollar or so a month to run my lagering fridge in hotter temps...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 02:26:35 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/mOKAKwY.jpg)

The 'hood, not taken today but today looks like this.

(https://i.imgur.com/5ocFGFS.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on May 10, 2020, 02:33:11 PM

Massive winds knocked out one of my screens on my porch, while the frittata was baking.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 02:51:26 PM

very windy here yesterday and today

not conducive to good golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2020, 02:55:58 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 02:51:26 PM

very windy here yesterday and today

not conducive to good golf

Did it affect your game? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2020, 03:01:47 PM

81 and partly sunny here. Beautiful day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 03:10:45 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 10, 2020, 02:55:58 PM

Did it affect your game?

yes, worse than normal
no motivation to play today after the round yesterday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 07:27:31 PM

48°F forecast tonight, 44°F tomorrow night.  Nice days though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 07:54:27 PM

31 here tonight

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 11, 2020, 10:26:18 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 06:58:49 PM

So, if we could snap our fingers and make it happen, is there a year in history where the climate was at its optimal state?  Was it during the Greek cold age or the Roman warm age or the Dark Age cold age or the Medieval warm age or the Little Ice Age or what?

That is the question that the Climate Change'rs will never answer. The Earth's climate is changing . . . just like it has done since the Earth had a climate. There is NO standard climate and never has been. It is in a constant state of change. 

The question at hand is are mankind's actions having an adverse affect on the climate? Some would argue that it is and some would argue they are not. 

Personally, I do believe that man's actions have an affect on the climate, however that affect is so minuscule when compared to something like a large volcanic eruption. Now that is not to say that we should just do whatever we want and continue to pollute the oceans and the air. We as humans need to be responsible for our environment. We should do what we can to reduce or eliminate pollution as best we can. But we also should NOT bankrupt ourselves in the process. 

Man's use of fossil fuels over the past 120+ years has done more to extend lives and feed people than the entire history of mankind prior to that. Telling people that we no longer need those things is foolish and short sighted. 

Another question I would ask of those that are pushing Climate Change is, knowing that the spot in which I am currently sitting was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice some 10,000 years ago, what made that ice disappear? Was it cave men driving SUV's? Too many Woolly Mammoth farts? 

Let's face it. The Earth's climate is in a constant state of change as it has always been. That big orange, sometimes visible orb in the sky dictates our climate more than mankind ever could, even if they tried. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 10:46:26 AM

The pace of change over the past 50 years has been "unusually high", if we are to believe the reported metrics.

The influence of anthropgenic actions versus historical change has of course been a topic of serious investigation.  The "conclusion" by most experts in the field is that the changes in climate are much greater than "normal".

You can of course believe otherwise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 11:02:54 AM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 11, 2020, 10:26:18 AM

That is the question that the Climate Change'rs will never answer. The Earth's climate is changing . . . just like it has done since the Earth had a climate. There is NO standard climate and never has been. It is in a constant state of change.

The answer to that question is simple: what is the optimal climate?

The one which supports human life on this planet. There is an acceptable range of climate variance in which we can continue to grow crops, to live in most regions of the planet, to support a population of 7-10B people. 

The concern is that we drift outside that range, what are the implications? 

The earth doesn't give af. It's undergone 5 mass extinctions (https://www.thoughtco.com/the-5-major-mass-extinctions-4018102) in history, and it's still here. So the question isn't what is the earth's optimal climate--it's what climate allows US as humans to thrive. 

Quote

The question at hand is are mankind's actions having an adverse affect on the climate? Some would argue that it is and some would argue they are not. 

I think it's clear that climate is warming, and it's clear that a portion of that warming is due to CO2. That is undisputed.

The question is whether a warmer climate is adverse to our future? 

Quote

Personally, I do believe that man's actions have an affect on the climate, however that affect is so minuscule when compared to something like a large volcanic eruption.

True, but our burning of fossil fuels is equivalent to huge "natural" climate events happening every day, every month, every year, and always in the direction of adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Your point--that there are huge natural events that can swing climate--is valid. But most of those events are transitory or cyclical, not continuous.  

Quote

Now that is not to say that we should just do whatever we want and continue to pollute the oceans and the air. We as humans need to be responsible for our environment. We should do what we can to reduce or eliminate pollution as best we can. But we also should NOT bankrupt ourselves in the process. 

Man's use of fossil fuels over the past 120+ years has done more to extend lives and feed people than the entire history of mankind prior to that. Telling people that we no longer need those things is foolish and short sighted.

Agreed, and that IMHO is one of the blinds spots of the climate change alarmists. I think that many of them know NOTHING about economics. They assume that we can just stop producing CO2 and it won't have any negative effects, or that we can magically/economically transition to renewables by fiat. 

It's why Cincy frames his argument the way he has done so--we're running this experiment through. Economically, the many third world nations trying to climb out of poverty--which are relying on cheap fossil fuel energy--will NOT simply give up their future economic success unless there's a breakthrough that makes renewables economically feasible to power their growth. That day may come, but it's not yet here.

Quote

Another question I would ask of those that are pushing Climate Change is, knowing that the spot in which I am currently sitting was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice some 10,000 years ago, what made that ice disappear? Was it cave men driving SUV's? Too many Woolly Mammoth farts? 

I don't know. The world of 10,000 years ago wouldn't support 7B humans in an industrial society, so maybe we should try to avoid swinging the climate too far from a climate that we know actually WILL support 7B humans in an industrial society. 

Quote

Let's face it. The Earth's climate is in a constant state of change as it has always been. That big orange, sometimes visible orb in the sky dictates our climate more than mankind ever could, even if they tried. 

I think you're discounting the level of havoc that mankind could wreak. CO2 may be the least of our problems. We have enough nukes across the world that we could make Earth uninhabitable for humans in less than a day, and more and more nations trying to get them. 

Which--if climate change really DOES cause adverse affects to our climate, may be more likely. What happens if we swing the pendulum far enough that we affect climate to the point where we can only grow enough crops for ~1B people? How much war, how much destruction, how much terror will occur to try to be one of those 1B rather than one of the other 6B?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:07:01 AM

Humans had adapted to the climate of "then", and may not adapt quickly to the future climate.  That future may include significantly high MSLs (mean sea level) which may increase by as much as a meter by 2100.  That won't bother many of us, but Miami, FL, Bangladesh, Holland, islands, other areas, ....  it could be a serious problem.

That could be the effect of most consequence.  I think other factors like storm intensity, drought, etc., are harder to predict.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:30:10 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 04:53:33 PM

Temperature has been changing for millions of years. It's not gonna stop, whether that be up, or down.

Honestly Badge, this line of thinking should be expanded upon.  

The carboniferous period started about 350 million years ago.  This was the very first time the earth had seen trees.  Bacteria had yet to evolve that could feed off of trees, and it took around 60 million years for them to evolve.

Over this 60 million years the trees would fall and simply lie there.  Eventually they would be compressed by other falling trees, and over millions of years this turned into coal.  90% of the coal we burn today is from the carboniferous period.  For 60 million years trees took Carbon out of the atmosphere and buried it deep in the earth.

Our earth wobbles slightly on its axis.  For now, our axis points to the north star.  However, over a 41,000 years period we have a variability of about 2.5 degrees.   Our orbit also slightly elongates and shortens over about 100,000 years.  The combination of these factors is responsible for nearly all of our ice ages.  Right now we are ever so slightly heading into an ice age.

Massive volcanoes and asteroid impacts have filled the atmosphere with so much particulate matter they caused massive cooling.

These are all events that have happened in the past.  What we are seeing now is something entirely different.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:31:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 06:54:31 AM

I am completely convinced it is too later, way too late.  People are rearranging deck chairs.  Cutting a bit here and there, yay for that.

Projected CO2 production by 2030 at this rate will probably be 90% of what we're doing today.

If we take it serious and continue to invest in green energy, research into carbon capture systems, etc. -- it certainly is not too late.

Yet.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:33:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2020, 07:53:08 AM

Everyone take a deep breath. And please, do not exhale.

This is actually part of the normal carbon cycle and doesn't matter. 

If you dig up carbon that has been buried for 300 million years and then release it into the atmosphere, that is an addition to the carbon cycle, and that's where the additional CO2 in our atmosphere has come from.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:34:37 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 08:50:39 AM

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions/)

The majority of the carbon emission reduction pledges for 2030 that 184 countries made under the Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement) aren’t nearly enough to keep global warming well below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius). Some countries won’t achieve their pledges, and some of the world's largest carbon emitters will continue to increase their emissions, according to a panel of world-class climate scientists.

“Countries need to double and triple their 2030 reduction commitments to be aligned with the Paris target,” says Sir Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and co-author of the report that closely examined the 184 voluntary pledges under the Paris Agreement.

“We have the technology and knowledge to make those emissions cuts, but what’s missing are strong enough policies and regulations to make it happen,” Watson says in an interview. “Right now the world is on a pathway to between 3 and 4 degrees C (5.5 and 7F) by the end of the century.”

I can of course point to some local progress and how this place or that place has gone renewable, but that doesn't mean anything REAL is happening globally.  It's spin, and I'm allergic to spin, having lived in a spin world for most of my career.  The Paris Targets are insufficient, and the planet is not going to meet them anyway.

Every year makes this more and more evident and makes the problem worse and worse.

This doesn't mean you throw your hands up in the air and give up... It speaks to the seriousness of our current situation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:35:12 AM

Taking it seriously is fine, but it doesn't change anything, it's just general opinion.

What changes things is a concrete plan, or at least the outline of one.  One doesn't exist because it can't exist.  Numbers don't lie.  So, we get stuff like what's on Biden's web site which to me reads like some high school project, it's not serious.  It's puffery.

And again what we do HERE is a small piece of the puzzle.  The numbers don't lie.

Politicians are making rather gradual changes for votes so they can look good, but it simply is not nearly enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:36:26 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:34:37 AM

This doesn't mean you throw your hands up in the air and give up... It speaks to the seriousness of our current situation.

It's fine with me if folks want to pretend and feel happy and cheerful and think "Well, if this guy gets elected, we'll solve this issue."

I try and deal with reality, not wishful thinking.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:37:59 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:59:59 AM

How big an impact do you see the elections making?

How much closer will we be to our goals by 2030 if the right people win in 2020?  10%?  1%?  0.1%?

A large percentage of one side doesn't believe there's a problem at all.

The other side at least acknowledges the problem, but I also have my doubts about what they can do.

Kind of a running theme in American politics at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:41:34 AM

Let's imagine, as it's true, that this isn't a political issue in Europe.  So they should be sailing along, right?  Just making HUGE reductions in CO2 production, as they is a broad consensus they need to, and politicians on all sides support it, and nobody is dragging their heels.

Is this a fair assessment?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:41:55 AM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 11, 2020, 10:26:18 AM

That is the question that the Climate Change'rs will never answer. The Earth's climate is changing . . . just like it has done since the Earth had a climate. There is NO standard climate and never has been. It is in a constant state of change.

The question at hand is are mankind's actions having an adverse affect on the climate? Some would argue that it is and some would argue they are not.

Personally, I do believe that man's actions have an affect on the climate, however that affect is so minuscule when compared to something like a large volcanic eruption. Now that is not to say that we should just do whatever we want and continue to pollute the oceans and the air. We as humans need to be responsible for our environment. We should do what we can to reduce or eliminate pollution as best we can. But we also should NOT bankrupt ourselves in the process.

Man's use of fossil fuels over the past 120+ years has done more to extend lives and feed people than the entire history of mankind prior to that. Telling people that we no longer need those things is foolish and short sighted.

Another question I would ask of those that are pushing Climate Change is, knowing that the spot in which I am currently sitting was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice some 10,000 years ago, what made that ice disappear? Was it cave men driving SUV's? Too many Woolly Mammoth farts?

Let's face it. The Earth's climate is in a constant state of change as it has always been. That big orange, sometimes visible orb in the sky dictates our climate more than mankind ever could, even if they tried.

You should read my post to badge above.

To answer your question -- Milankovitch cycles.  According to them we should be heading into an ice age, yet we continue to warm.

Let's not minimize the impact of the burning of fossil fuels on earth's climate.  It's quite huge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 11:44:02 AM

Take it to China and India. Let me know their efforts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:52:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:35:12 AM

Taking it seriously is fine, but it doesn't change anything, it's just general opinion.

What changes things is a concrete plan, or at least the outline of one.  One doesn't exist because it can't exist.  Numbers don't lie.  So, we get stuff like what's on Biden's web site which to me reads like some high school project, it's not serious.  It's puffery.

And again what we do HERE is a small piece of the puzzle.  The numbers don't lie.

Politicians are making rather gradual changes for votes so they can look good, but it simply is not nearly enough.

His website is simplified for the masses.

Hillary Clinton went into massive detail on her campaign website, and it totally backfired. 

For example, her plans for revitalizing West Virginia were incredibly detailed and specific.  Definitely not for the layman.  Trump came in and said he was going to bring coal back.  We know how that went.

I think Biden is trying to put his plan out there, but not have it mired boring and technical details.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:55:57 AM

Lay out some kind of outline of a plan.

1.  What will be closed and replaced with what else.
2.  How much it will cost, and who will pay for it.
3.  The reduction in CO2 generated, and the impact on climate over time according to the models.

What I see everywhere is a bunch of pandering to the masses so as to PRETEND to be doing something serious.  I've seen PR, and this looks like PR to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:56:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:41:34 AM

Let's imagine, as it's true, that this isn't a political issue in Europe.  So they should be sailing along, right?  Just making HUGE reductions in CO2 production, as they is a broad consensus they need to, and politicians on all sides support it, and nobody is dragging their heels.

Is this a fair assessment?

Europe is huge.  Some countries are doing better than others.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2020, 12:00:38 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 10, 2020, 02:20:38 PM

Ahh, it can't be more than an extra dollar or so a month to run my lagering fridge in hotter temps...

Taking one for the team good man,but i saw that post on 5 mass extinctions so ya better step it up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 11, 2020, 12:02:30 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 11:52:39 AM

His website is simplified for the masses.

Hillary Clinton went into massive detail on her campaign website, and it totally backfired. 

For example, her plans for revitalizing West Virginia were incredibly detailed and specific.  Definitely not for the layman.  Trump came in and said he was going to bring coal back.  We know how that went.

I think Biden is trying to put his plan out there, but not have it mired boring and technical details.

Exactly. Jay Inslee had a great and specific strategy, too, and I suspect many of those plans will be adopted by Biden. Most people aren't energy wonks, though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 12:04:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:55:57 AM

Lay out some kind of outline of a plan.

1.  What will be closed and replaced with what else.
2.  How much it will cost, and who will pay for it.
3.  The reduction in CO2 generated, and the impact on climate over time according to the models.

What I see everywhere is a bunch of pandering to the masses so as to PRETEND to be doing something serious.  I've seen PR, and this looks like PR to me.

Seriously, one of our two political parties pretty much actively:

A.  Denies climate change is a real thing
B.  Says it is natural and normal
C.  Says it is good for the earth and growing seasons
D.  Says that nothing can be done so we'll just have to live with it.

I'd be happy if both parties acknowledged there was a problem, invested in green energy and new technology to help solve the problem, and actively worked to mitigate current carbon outputs.

How much will it cost?  According to the insurance industry, global warming already costs Americans untold billions, and that number is accelerating.  Economists say that we are on the other end of the curve now.  It will cost us more to do nothing.

In a perfect world, we would close coal completely (that is happening fast anyway), and more towards renewable fuels.  (happening, but could be increased with government incentives)

Reductions in CO2 isn't going to happen unless we come up with efficient ways to capture carbon from the atmosphere.  We can, however, reduce the amount of CO2 that we continue to add.  For now, that will have to do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 12:09:31 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 11:44:02 AM

Take it to China and India. Let me know their efforts.

You've mentioned this before, and I have.

They are exceeding their targets.  

The next wave of technology and industry will be green energy.  Unfortunately, this will be the first time since WWII that the United States is not in a position to take advantage of shifting global economics.

China, on the other hand, is on the forefront.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 11, 2020, 12:11:54 PM

So, I'm still wondering when the "industrial era" began and what the average temperature was in the year before that.  Because that's supposed to be the baseline from which we are supposed to be trying not to exceed a 2-degrees Celcius increase.  If that year is 1759, we were in the Little Ice Age, with average temps about 1.5 degrees Celcius below historical norms.  Meaning that we have already blown through the 2-degrees target.

Apparently, the bottom of the Little Ice Age was about the time Jamestown was founded in 1607, with an estimated average global temp of 12.4 degrees C.  That partially explains why about 3/4 of the settlers who came to Jamestown in the 1st 3 years died.

We tend to frame the consequences of further warming in terms of what's good for the United States, or even what's good for the coastal cities of the United States.  Is it a given that sea-level rise is a bad thing for humanity (if humans are the prime consideration)?  I know it's a bad thing for coral and polar bears, but what about humans?  In a warmer climate, does the Sahara get rain, as it has in the geological past, or does it just turn into a bigger desert?  Do Canada's northern prairies and Siberia become agricultural breadbaskets, while Nawlins and Miami try to adapt to being Venice?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 12:16:24 PM

the folks in Nawlins have moved out before.  It was inconvenient as hell, but it happened.  This time they won't be moving back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 11, 2020, 12:34:21 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 12:04:57 PM

Seriously, one of our two political parties pretty much actively:

A.  Denies climate change is a real thing
B.  Says it is natural and normal
C.  Says it is good for the earth and growing seasons
D.  Says that nothing can be done so we'll just have to live with it.

I'd be happy if both parties acknowledged there was a problem, invested in green energy and new technology to help solve the problem, and actively worked to mitigate current carbon outputs.

How much will it cost?  According to the insurance industry, global warming already costs Americans untold billions, and that number is accelerating.  Economists say that we are on the other end of the curve now.  It will cost us more to do nothing.

In a perfect world, we would close coal completely (that is happening fast anyway), and more towards renewable fuels.  (happening, but could be increased with government incentives)

Reductions in CO2 isn't going to happen unless we come up with efficient ways to capture carbon from the atmosphere.  We can, however, reduce the amount of CO2 that we continue to add.  For now, that will have to do.

You've made some very solid points in this discussion, BBTS.
But . . . .
Neither party speaks with unanimity, so A through B are generalizations, albeit reasonable ones.  But neither party is the "party of science."  The same party that believes in climate science also believes that people will turn into angels if we just restructure society the right way.

So nobody's got the scientific high ground across the board.  Both parties invoke science when it supports their position, and both invoke wishful thinking at other times.

And there's this:

Quote

According to the insurance industry, global warming already costs Americans untold billions, and that number is accelerating.

If an estimate includes "untold" or "countless" in it, then it's not much good as an estimate.  And "untold" is not a number such that we could tell whether it is accelerating or not.
We had a story on TV news a few days ago.  A 2-year-old boy wandered off from his family's home out in the country.  A search (successful 26 hours later, thankfully) was launched.  The on-the-scene reporter told us about the "countless ponds in the area."  I just shook my head.  The number of ponds in the area might have been 10 or 20, or maybe 100, depending on how big the "area" was, but that number was not "countless."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 12:54:02 PM

well, he hadn't counted the ponds and neither had anyone he trusted

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 01:18:06 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 11, 2020, 12:34:21 PM

The same party that believes in climate science also believes that people will turn into angels if we just restructure society the right way.

Libertarians?  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 01:20:30 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 11, 2020, 12:34:21 PM

And there's this:If an estimate includes "untold" or "countless" in it, then it's not much good as an estimate.  And "untold" is not a number such that we could tell whether it is accelerating or not.
We had a story on TV news a few days ago.  A 2-year-old boy wandered off from his family's home out in the country.  A search (successful 26 hours later, thankfully) was launched.  The on-the-scene reporter told us about the "countless ponds in the area."  I just shook my head.  The number of ponds in the area might have been 10 or 20, or maybe 100, depending on how big the "area" was, but that number was not "countless."

There are specifics...
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/13/529201.htm (https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/13/529201.htm)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 01:22:18 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 11, 2020, 12:11:54 PM

So, I'm still wondering when the "industrial era" began and what the average temperature was in the year before that.  Because that's supposed to be the baseline from which we are supposed to be trying not to exceed a 2-degrees Celcius increase.  If that year is 1759, we were in the Little Ice Age, with average temps about 1.5 degrees Celcius below historical norms.  Meaning that we have already blown through the 2-degrees target.

Apparently, the bottom of the Little Ice Age was about the time Jamestown was founded in 1607, with an estimated average global temp of 12.4 degrees C.  That partially explains why about 3/4 of the settlers who came to Jamestown in the 1st 3 years died.

We tend to frame the consequences of further warming in terms of what's good for the United States, or even what's good for the coastal cities of the United States.  Is it a given that sea-level rise is a bad thing for humanity (if humans are the prime consideration)?  I know it's a bad thing for coral and polar bears, but what about humans?  In a warmer climate, does the Sahara get rain, as it has in the geological past, or does it just turn into a bigger desert?  Do Canada's northern prairies and Siberia become agricultural breadbaskets, while Nawlins and Miami try to adapt to being Venice?

Between 1840 and 1860

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=industrial+era Link (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=industrial+era)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 02:21:33 PM

I sincerely hope nobody believes that the CCP is producing renewable energy out of their concern for emissions - because they don't care. They are doing it for their own energy security - period. And they also have 4.5 times more people than we do, so, they produce a bit more renewable as a percentage, and they produce far more emissions. India and China have 35 percent of the world population.

Again, start there if you want to truly make a dent in emissions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 02:36:31 PM

One irony in all this is that Europe decided to push Diesel cars circa 1990 to combat CO2 emissions, and as a result are incurring serious problems with regular air pollution now (NOx in particular) in cities.  Nearly every car is Diesel, and the 50 cc 2 stroke scooters are a problem of course.

I saw somewhere that CO2 emissions are off 8% due to COVID and we'd need to replicate that every tear for ten years to meet Paris targets, which as noted above, are not sufficient.  Even the most optimistic rosey future scenario not based on wishful thinking shows "we" are not doing nearly enough.

If nobody can do some kind of cost:benefit analysis on the issue, well, that should tell us something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:01:11 PM

https://www.dw.com/en/german-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fall-for-first-time-in-four-years/a-48167150 (https://www.dw.com/en/german-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fall-for-first-time-in-four-years/a-48167150)

German greenhouse gas emissions fall for first time in four years

Though renewables played a role in the 4.2 percent drop it has largely been attributed to warm weather. Despite this good news the country is certain to miss its 2020 target of reducing emissions by 40 percent over 1990.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced global figures for 2018, documenting an overall global increase of 1.7 percent in carbon emissions (https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-energy-linked-co2-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2018/a-48060649). That number represented a historic high of 33 billion tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Although emissions fell in Germany, France and Britain, they rose by 2.5 percent in China and 3.1 percent in the USA.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:03:37 PM

A decade ago, Germany's plan to move to renewable energy positioned the country as a pioneer in the fight against climate change. But its climate protection efforts have stalled, and Germany is still a major contributor to global CO2 emissions.
Read more: COP 25: When it comes to climate protection, Germany still has a lot to do  (https://www.dw.com/en/cop25-when-it-comes-to-climate-protection-germany-still-has-a-lot-to-do/a-51621620)
Fossil fuels make up 80% of Germany's primary energy consumption, according to government data. Some 22% of that comes from coal. The country relies on black coal and lignite to maintain a steady energy supply alongside fluctuating renewables.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:09:23 PM

What I see around the world are what I call "PR moves", countries cutting CO2 emissions by 2% a year, maybe, if that.  Some claim higher figures but when you check into it it's because they are buying power from neighbors.  Why should anyone think this is going to change, radically, and soon?

Maybe the US elects a Democrat.  Maybe he has grand plans.  Maybe.  And then Congress gets a say.  Every new administration has grand plans, and when we look back, in the main, we see little really was changed, in ANY endeavor.  We had Obama for eight years and what grand plan was implemented?  Some regulatory adjustments.

In Europe I see the same kind of PR campaign.  Talk up wind and solar and mask the hard numbers.  China of course is the Big Player here, and they often claim so many kW from solar etc., but hard reality is below:

(https://i.imgur.com/39S0ENZ.png)

They aren't reducing CO2 emissions, and won't in the future, aside from the impact of the virus.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 03:10:44 PM

we're ALL Doomed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:25:40 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 02:21:33 PM

I sincerely hope nobody believes that the CCP is producing renewable energy out of their concern for emissions - because they don't care. They are doing it for their own energy security - period. And they also have 4.5 times more people than we do, so, they produce a bit more renewable as a percentage, and they produce far more emissions. India and China have 35 percent of the world population.

Again, start there if you want to truly make a dent in emissions.

I've already said this before, but...

in 2019, India had less than half of US emissions.  China has almost double our emissions, but had no increases in 2019 and should be seeing decreased CO2 output for the foreseeable future.

They are doing their part.  We are not doing ours.  We are the 2nd largest producer of CO2 in the world.  We can certainly make a dent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:27:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 02:36:31 PM

One irony in all this is that Europe decided to push Diesel cars circa 1990 to combat CO2 emissions, and as a result are incurring serious problems with regular air pollution now (NOx in particular) in cities.  Nearly every car is Diesel, and the 50 cc 2 stroke scooters are a problem of course.

I saw somewhere that CO2 emissions are off 8% due to COVID and we'd need to replicate that every tear for ten years to meet Paris targets, which as noted above, are not sufficient.  Even the most optimistic rosey future scenario not based on wishful thinking shows "we" are not doing nearly enough.

If nobody can do some kind of cost:benefit analysis on the issue, well, that should tell us something.

The insurance industry already has.  And not just them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:32:10 PM

• The United States saw the largest decline in energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2019 on a country basis – a fall of 140 Mt, or 2.9%, to 4.8 Gt. US emissions are now down almost 1 Gt from their peak in the year 2000, the largest absolute decline by any country over that period. 

https://www.iea.org/articles/global-co2-emissions-in-2019 (https://www.iea.org/articles/global-co2-emissions-in-2019)

(https://i.imgur.com/Qz7hGeT.png)

The US is making more progress than a lot of countries out there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:32:54 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:27:16 PM

The insurance industry already has.  And not just them.

Where?  I don't see anything.  Burfle.

Cost of reducing CO2 emissions.

Benefit of reducing CO2 emissions.

Where is it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:33:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:03:37 PM

A decade ago, Germany's plan to move to renewable energy positioned the country as a pioneer in the fight against climate change. But its climate protection efforts have stalled, and Germany is still a major contributor to global CO2 emissions.
Read more: COP 25: When it comes to climate protection, Germany still has a lot to do  (https://www.dw.com/en/cop25-when-it-comes-to-climate-protection-germany-still-has-a-lot-to-do/a-51621620)
Fossil fuels make up 80% of Germany's primary energy consumption, according to government data. Some 22% of that comes from coal. The country relies on black coal and lignite to maintain a steady energy supply alongside fluctuating renewables.

This is all well and good, but you're cherry picking data that makes your case.

Sure, Germany hasn't dropped as much as they wanted to...but per capita we still produce more than 75% CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:35:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:32:54 PM

Where?  I don't see anything.  Burfle.

Cost of reducing CO2 emissions.

Benefit of reducing CO2 emissions.

Where is it?

How many links do you want?

Here's (http://insurance climate change) a bunch of scholarly articles, but a simple Google search will reveal more layman articles if you're interested.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:35:39 PM

I'm not cherry picking anything, I'm showing that what is happening is some slight chiseling of CO2 emissions, well under what would be needed.  Public relations.

And the US is doing better than most at this.

Anyone who thinks the world is REALLY going to reduce CO2 emissions sufficiently by 2030 is looking at different data than I see.

I see PR, and a lot of people fall for it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:36:48 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:35:10 PM

How many links do you want?

Here's (http://insurance climate change) a bunch of scholarly articles, but a simple Google search will reveal more layman articles if you're interested.

One link, with ONE plan, that answers my questions.  ONE will suffice.

I've never seen one anywhere, and I've looked pretty hard.

And maybe you hadn't realized but I'm not exactly a layman in my understanding of science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:40:22 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:35:39 PM

I'm not cherry picking anything, I'm showing that what is happening is some slight chiseling of CO2 emissions, well under what would be needed.  Public relations.

And the US is doing better than most at this.

Anyone who thinks the world is REALLY going to reduce CO2 emissions sufficiently by 2030 is looking at different data than I see.

I see PR, and a lot of people fall for it.

This is exactly the point.  We need to step up and do something.

This country put a man on the moon just a few decades after flying was invented.  If we truly invest in it, we can certainly do it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:42:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:36:48 PM

One link, with ONE plan, that answers my questions.  ONE will suffice.

I've never seen one anywhere, and I've looked pretty hard.

And maybe you hadn't realized but I'm not exactly a layman in my understanding of science.

How many links do you want?

Here's one. (https://riskandinsurance.com/cost-of-climate-change/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:44:56 PM

I don't deal with what we CAN do, I worry about what is mostly likely to happen in the real world, as opposed to the Make Believe World.

I look at trends, versus Great Promises a decade ago.  I look at what is feasible and practicable versus what has been happening for decades.  I'm not impressed when somebody reduces their output by 1-2% a year when the models say it has to be 8-10%.

I try and find hard numbers, how much will this cost, and find nothing but airy fairy rosey burfle.  I see the public not liking nuclear and wanting to shut that down.  That not only takes an option off the table, it digs a hole in what needs to be done, as Germany if discovering.

Mostly I see political BS and PR. and I think it's clear we're going to run this experiment and find out what happens.  The notion that the world is really going to cut CO2 emissions fast enough is simply not something I believe, at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 03:45:42 PM

how many of the links with some sort of data do any of us really believe?

we know how this works

the writers have a story to tell (an agenda), they then use data to form and substantiate that narrative

just like this COVID-19 data, I'm not sure what to believe and how to interpret all the data

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 03:46:50 PM

I don't believe the numbers from China and India. I do believe the numbers from the US and its allies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:46:59 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:42:17 PM

How many links do you want?

Here's one. (https://riskandinsurance.com/cost-of-climate-change/)

Good grief, that is not remotely what I asked for,.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:48:29 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 03:46:50 PM

I don't believe the numbers from China and India. I do believe the numbers from the US and its allies.

The numbers are estimates based on what they import and what the claim to produce in terms of coal and petroleum.  We can measure CO2 in the air pretty well, so everything should add up to match that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 03:55:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:48:29 PM

The numbers are estimates based on what they import and what the claim to produce in terms of coal and petroleum.  We can measure CO2 in the air pretty well, so everything should add up to match that.

This is the problem. I'd have to know more (be educated) on how accurate measurements can be taken in China, without China being involved in them.

"We" really should look at nuclear power again. Stop the coal and stop the fracking. Wind and solar have too many limitations from what I seen, and yes, I've done work in both industries so I've had the discussions. They are mostly not cost-effective in many locations. They have to make perfect sense to the developer in order to be pursued. When the subsidies went away in 2011 or so in Illinois, they mostly all pulled out/abandoned their projects. Cost me a lot of work, actually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 11, 2020, 04:03:54 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 03:55:54 PM

This is the problem. I'd have to know more (be educated) on how accurate measurements can be taken in China, without China being involved in them.

"We" really should look at nuclear power again. Stop the coal and stop the fracking. Wind and solar have too many limitations from what I seen, and yes, I've done work in both industries so I've had the discussions. They are mostly not cost-effective in many locations. They have to make perfect sense to the developer in order to be pursued. When the subsidies went away in 2011 or so in Illinois, they mostly all pulled out/abandoned their projects. Cost me a lot of work, actually.

Wind and solar are more cost-effective than ever. That's why they're being deployed on such a large scale in Texas and even other conservative states for economic reasons alone.... They are competitive with if not cheaper than gas generation throughout most parts of the country.... This deployment just needs to be accelerated.

Nuclear is not cost-competitive. It makes sense to keep existing generation open but new nuclear has a long way to go to become economic, even with these small-scale reactors in development and soon to be tested in some places.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 04:13:04 PM

Wind is still very popular in Iowa

hasn't slowed down as far as I can tell

still seeing the blades on trucks on the highways regularly

not much solar

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 04:13:43 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 11, 2020, 04:03:54 PM

Wind and solar are more cost-effective than ever. 

Not where I work. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 11, 2020, 04:14:28 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 01:22:18 PM

Between 1840 and 1860

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=industrial+era Link (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=industrial+era)

1840 is the end date for the first industrial revolution at that site, which is the same one from which I got 1760 as the start point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 04:39:53 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 03:25:40 PM

I've already said this before, but...

in 2019, India had less than half of US emissions.  China has almost double our emissions, but had no increases in 2019 and should be seeing decreased CO2 output for the foreseeable future.

They are doing their part.  We are not doing ours.  We are the 2nd largest producer of CO2 in the world.  We can certainly make a dent.

Assuming Cincy's post above is accurate, China saw a threefold increase in CO2 output from the usage of coal from ~2000-15. 

Now that they're replacing coal with oil and natural gas (those plots keep going up), they may be reducing their output of CO2, but it was from an absurdly high baseline that had skyrocketed over a decade and a half. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:45:34 PM

China for many years was opening a new coal fired generating plant every WEEK.  Yes, their numbers were going through the roof.

They COULD be nearing a point where they level off.  Yay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 04:51:50 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 11, 2020, 04:03:54 PM

Wind and solar are more cost-effective than ever. That's why they're being deployed on such a large scale in Texas and even other conservative states for economic reasons alone.... They are competitive with if not cheaper than gas generation throughout most parts of the country.... This deployment just needs to be accelerated.

Nuclear is not cost-competitive. It makes sense to keep existing generation open but new nuclear has a long way to go to become economic, even with these small-scale reactors in development and soon to be tested in some places.

I still think unless we figure out energy storage in a big way, wind and solar will only be niche players in the long run. 

Obviously the world would be a lot cleaner if we all had solar panels on our roof, battery storage in our garage, and those batteries charged our electric cars while we slept. 

But the problem right now is that the upfront costs of solar are expensive, the difficulty mining the elements needed for the batteries (and scaling that production widely) needed for both homes and cars, and the cost of the batteries, make this a difficult economic play for most people. 

Especially when my electric bill--in California where electricity is relatively expensive--rarely goes over $100/mo except perhaps in the 1-2 months of deep summer and I actually run the AC. If we assume I'm basically trying to amortize an expense compared to a $1500/year run rate, and solar plus a battery wall might cost me $20-30K--and I have to worry about maintenance and wear-out of those components? Yeah, it makes sense long-term, but if I have to assume I'll be in the house 15+ years just to come close to breaking even, it makes it hard to justify.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 05:02:30 PM

And our current technology for batteries is fairly nasty business, scaling up production (and eventual disposal) at the kind of scale where every household and business in the USA had a solar array and battery bank, would involve a pretty large environmental impact as well.

We'd have to look to future, cleaner storage solutions.  Which I know are in the works and MichiFan certainly knows way more about them than I do, but I think some people don't realize just how impactful our current battery technology would be, at that kind of scale.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 11, 2020, 05:15:41 PM

Yep.  There are costs to everything, and there's no such thing as a free lunch.  Wind power has negative environmental impacts too, no matter where you put the wind farms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 05:24:41 PM

Negative impacts are everywhere, with everything. It is what it is.

Flicker is a big problem with the wind turbines. Many farmers are sorry they agreed to the leases.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 11, 2020, 05:30:18 PM

Wind and solar projects, even residential solar, is very easy to finance. Even batteries can be financed. Upfront cost is not an issue. Sunrun (the biggest residential solar installer) has a deal right now where new customers will only $1 / mo for their first 6 months. They package those systems with batteries, now, too.

Battery costs still have room to go down (and they will), but they've already fallen substantially.

More importantly, other energy storage technologies are emerging. It's not just batteries. This is important, of course. There is a lot of pumped hydro, already, that will continue to be used, but there aren't many opportunities to develop new projects like that.

That said, the intermittency of wind and solar can be managed to a large extent by curtailment, even at high penetration levels of 50% and above, even if without much storage because gas generation is very flexible and is what keeps the grid balanced.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 05:33:33 PM

I'm having solar installed here on Wednesday, to heat the pool and hot tub.

See? I'm doing my part.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 05:50:09 PM

I admit I have no expertise on the various financing options for solar. It's something I'll need to look into when I own a house again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 05:55:15 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 05:50:09 PM

I admit I have no expertise on the various financing options for solar. It's something I'll need to look into when I own a house again.

One thing I will tell you that it is NOT easy to go with the state-sponsored program - at least not where I live now.

In fact, I cannot get it, period. Cash for me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 05:59:03 PM

If all this is now so easy in reality, it should be happening in droves, right?  I mean, it's apparently cheap and money saving and easy.

Who wouldn't want that?

Problem seolved.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 06:06:47 PM

I looked into it a few years back.  At the time (and maybe still?) Texas was offering some pretty hefty incentives for installing solar.  But even after all of that, the breakeven period was still around 10 years.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 06:09:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 05:59:03 PM

If all this is now so easy in reality, it should be happening in droves, right?  I mean, it's apparently cheap and money saving and easy.

Who wouldn't want that?

Problem seolved.

Well, the biggest problem is that the problem itself is an externality. There's no price associated with burning carbon. So the societal impact isn't factored into the economics. 

So how about this... Let's completely eliminate the payroll tax with a revenue-neutral carbon tax. 

Generally taxes make things more expensive, in which case you'd get less of it relative to a non-tax scenario. So right now we're taxing employment--which we want, and not taxing carbon dioxide--which we don't want. 

Reverse that and suddenly the externality of spewing CO2 has a cost... Whether it's an adequate cost to cover the true impact of the externality or not is debatable, but at least there's a cost. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 06:14:39 PM

Read my lips. No new taxes. Oh wait...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 06:22:06 PM

How much would the carbon tax have to be to replace the payroll tax?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 06:43:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 06:22:06 PM

How much would the carbon tax have to be to replace the payroll tax?

What did someone say earlier today, the US is emitting 4.9 gigatons of CO2? A quick googling suggests that in 2018, the payroll tax was 35% of our federal tax receipts of $3.3T, so the payroll tax would $1.16T.

Somewhere around $235 per ton. 

Another quick googling suggests that the average car emits 4.6 metric tons of CO2 per year, so the cost of fueling a 2-car household would go up probably a little over $2K/year...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 06:51:36 PM

nice plan

what's the chance of this being implemented?

in the next ten years?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 06:58:34 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 06:51:36 PM

nice plan

what's the chance of this being implemented?

in the next ten years?

Probably zero. It makes too much sense, and it doesn't give political mucky-mucks control over everything.

They'd more likely create a corrupt cap-and-trade scheme that allows them to pick winners and losers, so the lobbying dollars keep rolling in to the folks who can massage the regulations and create favor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 07:16:02 PM

I should point out the past response as a little flippant. 

One of the biggest political issues with a carbon tax is that it's pretty deeply regressive. That's one of the complaints about the payroll tax as well, but the carbon tax is possibly even more so. 

If you're relatively poor, to pay $2K/year in payroll taxes means you only need to earn something like $26K/year. So if you're a one-income household with two cars and your fuel costs go up $2k/year? While at the same time your electric and heating costs go up (assuming your electrical provider is using coal or NG and/or your house is heated with gas)? Especially if you're a poorer family with much older (and less fuel efficient) cars that use more gas? 

It would hurt more down at the bottom of the income spectrum. Whereas the rich people driving Teslas and who can afford to put solar panels on their house are rewarded, and the other rich people who don't do that, but are paying huge amounts into their payroll taxes, still come out ahead. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 07:53:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:46:59 PM

Good grief, that is not remotely what I asked for,.

Eh sorry, I thought you were asking about the monetary cost of climate change.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 07:56:06 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 03:46:50 PM

I don't believe the numbers from China and India. I do believe the numbers from the US and its allies.

Fortunately, we are pretty much able to calculate how much fossil fuels have been burned to result in the yearly increases in CO2 we observe.    And, for once, China's numbers are at least close to accurate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 08:00:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:44:56 PM

I don't deal with what we CAN do, I worry about what is mostly likely to happen in the real world, as opposed to the Make Believe World.

I look at trends, versus Great Promises a decade ago.  I look at what is feasible and practicable versus what has been happening for decades.  I'm not impressed when somebody reduces their output by 1-2% a year when the models say it has to be 8-10%.

I try and find hard numbers, how much will this cost, and find nothing but airy fairy rosey burfle.  I see the public not liking nuclear and wanting to shut that down.  That not only takes an option off the table, it digs a hole in what needs to be done, as Germany if discovering.

Mostly I see political BS and PR. and I think it's clear we're going to run this experiment and find out what happens.  The notion that the world is really going to cut CO2 emissions fast enough is simply not something I believe, at all.

This is what I was responding to.  Hard numbers.  Sorry for the confusion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 08:01:52 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 03:55:54 PM

This is the problem. I'd have to know more (be educated) on how accurate measurements can be taken in China, without China being involved in them.

"We" really should look at nuclear power again. Stop the coal and stop the fracking. Wind and solar have too many limitations from what I seen, and yes, I've done work in both industries so I've had the discussions. They are mostly not cost-effective in many locations. They have to make perfect sense to the developer in order to be pursued. When the subsidies went away in 2011 or so in Illinois, they mostly all pulled out/abandoned their projects. Cost me a lot of work, actually.

Yes we should.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 08:07:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:45:34 PM

China for many years was opening a new coal fired generating plant every WEEK.  Yes, their numbers were going through the roof.

They COULD be nearing a point where they level off.  Yay.

they leveled off 2 or 3 years ago and are now going down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 08:11:37 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 06:43:41 PM

What did someone say earlier today, the US is emitting 4.9 gigatons of CO2? A quick googling suggests that in 2018, the payroll tax was 35% of our federal tax receipts of $3.3T, so the payroll tax would $1.16T.

Somewhere around $235 per ton.

Another quick googling suggests that the average car emits 4.6 metric tons of CO2 per year, so the cost of fueling a 2-car household would go up probably a little over $2K/year...

Payroll taxes fund social security and medicare, though.

So, realistically, we'd have to eliminate those programs if we eliminate the payroll tax...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 07:58:38 AM

The idea was that a carbon tax could replace FICA.  I asked what the carbon tax would need to be.

Your idea of hard data and mine obviously are very different.  I understand that natural disasters would be more expensive if climate change kicks in hard.  That wasn't my point at all, obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 07:59:42 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 07:53:10 PM

Eh sorry, I thought you were asking about the monetary cost of climate change. 

If you thought that, you can't possibly be reading what I am posting, which explains a few things.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 08:02:31 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 06:43:41 PM

What did someone say earlier today, the US is emitting 4.9 gigatons of CO2? A quick googling suggests that in 2018, the payroll tax was 35% of our federal tax receipts of $3.3T, so the payroll tax would $1.16T.

Somewhere around $235 per ton.

Another quick googling suggests that the average car emits 4.6 metric tons of CO2 per year, so the cost of fueling a 2-car household would go up probably a little over $2K/year...

A $40 per ton carbon dioxide tax would increase the price of gasoline by about $0.40 a gallon, increase the price of natural gas by about 80% and increase the price of coal by about 200% (based on today's spot prices)

So, we'd be looking at an additional gasoline tax of over $2 per gallon.  I don't think that would be explainable for folks.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 09:04:37 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 11, 2020, 08:11:37 PM

Payroll taxes fund social security and medicare, though.

So, realistically, we'd have to eliminate those programs if we eliminate the payroll tax...

Money is money. The recipients don't care whether it comes from a payroll tax or a carbon tax.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 09:08:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 08:02:31 AM

A $40 per ton carbon dioxide tax would increase the price of gasoline by about $0.40 a gallon, increase the price of natural gas by about 80% and increase the price of coal by about 200% (based on today's spot prices)

So, we'd be looking at an additional gasoline tax of over $2 per gallon.  I don't think that would be explainable for folks. 

Yeah, that'd be rough for a lot of folks. Of course they wouldn't be losing 7.65% of their income to a payroll tax, so the money could come from somewhere.

Heck, you could sweeten it a little with a one-time law that employers needed to raise their employees' salary by 7.65% to factor in that they are no longer paying the employer's half of the payroll tax.

Or if you wanted to keep the cost down, you could eliminate only the employee portion of the tax, and be revenue neutral on that side, while keeping the employer portion of the tax. That would eliminate roughly half the cost, so the tax would be only a little over a dollar a gallon. 

Either way, I thought the goal was eliminating carbon. I'd bet that most consumers would look REAL hard at a Prius or a Tesla if gas jumped by $2/gallon. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 09:08:54 AM

So, think about a carbon tax in lieu of the payroll tax.  An individual earning say $130 K a year who doesn't drive (much) would make out like a bandit.

An individual who is a contractor who drive an F250 to work would get nailed.  Let's say he earns $60 K a year, he doesn't max his FICA tax, but he buys a lot of gasoline.

Wealthy folks who can afford a Tesla and high efficiency HVAC gear would be delighted.  Retired folks like me, not so much as I don't have earned income.  Other wealthy folks with no earned income also pay zero FICA today.

The tax burden would be very unevenly spread.  

The working poor in general aren't going to be able to afford some highly efficient measures to insulate and get new windows and they often need to drive to work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 09:26:30 AM

Well, that's a feature and a bug.

The tax burden would be spread primarily to those who use the most carbon, which is the group that we're trying to stop from using so much carbon. 

I'll bet that my proposal would result in a bigger change to America's CO2 output than anything else coming out of Washington.

That said, I'd never really priced what it would cost consumers if you replaced the ENTIRE payroll tax. And it was higher than I expected. The burden would be pretty steep. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 09:29:55 AM

And it would hit the working poor very hard.

The coastal elites would love it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 10:39:08 AM

I might give up my V8

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 10:40:47 AM

It'd most likely decimate the boating, RV, and general "recreational driving" industries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 10:41:49 AM

Meanwhile, we're having mid-March weather as we approach mid-May.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:43:01 AM

I don't think it's a very good option, upon review.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 10:46:58 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 10:40:47 AM

It'd most likely decimate the boating, RV, and general "recreational driving" industries.

Meh. People have been trying to kill those things off for years. Boaters are gonna boat.


I get about 3/4 mile per gallon on mine. When gas was $5/gallon, we still used it. Now it will probably be $2.50 gallon. We'll use it about the same, although for less months, as Lake Michigan, I think, is still iced-over. Hard to tell from down here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 10:49:17 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 10:46:58 AM

Meh. People have been trying to kill those things off for years. Boaters are gonna boat.


I get about 3/4 mile per gallon on mine. When gas was $5/gallon, we still used it. Now it will probably be $2.50 gallon. We'll use it about the same, although for less months, as Lake Michigan, I think, is still iced-over. Hard to tell from down here.

You're not going to move the boat down to Florida?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:56:51 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 10:40:47 AM

It'd most likely decimate the boating, RV, and general "recreational driving" industries.

It would have an impact, as previous hikes in fuel prices have had.  That of course is part of the point.

My proposal which I suggested around 1990 was to have a hike in the gasoline tax of perhaps a nickel a gallon each Jan 1 for ten years.  You could plan for it, and the revenue would be used to improve our highway infrastructure.  We could still do that of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 10:57:23 AM

my golf cart doesn't use much gas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 11:01:10 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 10:49:17 AM

You're not going to move the boat down to Florida?

The plan was to live on in the summer months, in Kenosha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 11:22:33 AM

I think if "we" collectively really really believe CC was a looming crisis and we HAD to do something drastic NOW, we'd be behaving much differently.  Obviously, countries would be pushing wind and solar, fine, carry on, but that won't get us "there" fast enough.

The ONLY currently available technology is nuclear, and oddly enough countries aside from France are moving away from that as an option.  (There is noise in France of course, but nothing realistic.)  It would be technically possible to replace every coal fired plant in the US with nuclear in a decade.  And yes, it would be costly.  Every nuclear plant seems to have horrendous cost overruns (Vogtle).  Perhaps that could be mitigated by using a standardized design as they do in France.

That step would put a significant dent in our carbon output, it would not solve the problem of course, we'd still have NG plants, and transportation, but it would be a nice dent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 11:33:45 AM

How much of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are associated with electricity generation?
In 2018, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by the U.S. electric power sector (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Electric power sector) were 1,763 million metric tons (MMmt), or about 33% of total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions of 5,269 (MMmt).¹
CO2 emissions by U.S. electric power sector by source, 2018

Source	Million metric tons	Share of sector total
Coal	1,150	65%
Natural gas	581	33%
Petroleum	21	1%
Other2	11	<1%
Total	1,763

¹ Includes CO2 emissions from the combustion of miscellaneous waste materials made from fossil fuels and by some types of geothermal power generation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 11:44:12 AM

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/where-greenhouse-gases-come-from.php (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/where-greenhouse-gases-come-from.php)

Coal is responsible for about a quarter of our CO2 production (US).  Coal also produces quite a bit of regular pollution which is bad, and of course coal mining and disposal of ash is a problem as well.  

Coal is the dominant CO2 emissions source related to electricity generation

In 2018, the electric power sector accounted for about 38% of U.S. primary energy consumption and produced 33% of total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions. Coal accounted for 65% and natural gas for 33% of electric power sector CO2 emissions. Emissions from burning petroleum fuels and non-biomass waste (mainly plastics) in waste-to-energy power plants and emissions from some types of geothermal power plants accounted for about 2% of power sector CO2 emissions.

So, PART of a reasonable PLAN would be to shutter our coal plants in X years.  Now the question is HOW, and at what expense.  Many will be closed anyway of course, but many will still be operation in say 2030.  While wind/solar can help chisel at this, we really would need more nuclear to replace this chunk is say a decade.

We all know the issues with nuclear, but the simple fact is we KNOW how many megawatts they can produce at what cost.  There are two power reactors nearing end of construction now, and that's it.

If we really were serious about taking out a chunk of CO2, folks would be pushing this.  But, they aren't, because it doesn't match with the PC message of "wind and solar".

I hope all these new wind turbines have costs built in for disposal when they reach their 20 year expected lives.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 12, 2020, 11:52:55 AM

Wind and solar are cost-effective. Nuclear is not. It's that simple.

Coal will be dead in some (and potentially most) states by 2030, anyway. It's already gone in a few including California.

As for a carbon price/tax, it's a reasonable idea but unlikely to be implemented at a national level.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 11:54:42 AM

I doubt the coal and natural gas plants had costs built in for disposal when they are abandoned.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 11:55:16 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 10:40:47 AM

It'd most likely decimate the boating, RV, and general "recreational driving" industries.

I don't know about "decimate". As with anything, if you raise the cost of something you'll get less of it. 

Boating and recreational driving are already a "luxury", and so the question will be how much people are willing to sacrifice for their recreation. As Badge suggests, I think people who like boating will always like boating, and they'll do what they need to make sure they can still do it.

For RV, part of it is a lifestyle choice, and part of it is a cost comparison of traveling in other ways--flying or driving and staying in hotels, for example. If you had a carbon tax, the cost of air travel would certainly rise. Hotels may rise moderately because obviously their electricity / AC / heating bills for a hotel may rise due to the portion of their power that is carbon-based. So while travel by RV will be more expensive, other forms of travel would likewise be more expensive. Where the final tally ends up may result in a reduction in RV travel, but I doubt "decimate" would be the result. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 11:57:59 AM

Interesting word, "decimate."

It originated with the custom in the Roman army of punishing legions that disgraced themselves by executing every 10th man.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 12:11:19 PM

Nuclear is one path to taking out the coal fired generating plants in the US.  If there is another cheaper path, great.

I keep going back to have a PLAN of some sort, instead of just saying "wind and solar" blah blah blah.

A plan, at least the general outline of a plan.  Will coal usage in the US go to near zero by 2030 without a plan of action?  Maybe so, then it doesn't matter what government does.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 12:17:14 PM

Every developer I've worked with on wind and solar plainly admitted they would not want it in their own back yard. That includes BP, Horizon and many of the other big boys.

I did a huge wind farm on I-65 in Indiana. Yuck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 12:18:45 PM

I know the EIA's projections have not been very good, so take this for whatever it's worth:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/01/coal-will-remain-part-of-the-us-grid-until-2050-federal-energy-projections-say/ (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/01/coal-will-remain-part-of-the-us-grid-until-2050-federal-energy-projections-say/)

Coal, one of the most carbon-emitting sources of energy, is still projected to provide 17 percent of the United States' electricity in 2050, and that's assuming that no carbon-capture technology has been made mandatory. Natural gas—a fossil fuel that is less carbon-emitting than coal but still a problem for climate change—will increase its share of US electricity production from 34 percent to 39 percent.

If coal does level off in the midteens by 2050, well, we would have missed a chance to implement a PLAN to cut it to near zero.

And yes, I am aware it is not far from 17% today, but I also know that the easy cuts happen first, and now we're probably looking at newer coal fired plants that are not amortized.  If the above projection is anywhere near true, what I've been saying here over and over and over is CLEARLY reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 12:19:35 PM

So, why is there no outline of a plan, a proposal, a how to get from here to there?

Is it because when you look at the hard numbers, you can't do it?

Oh yeah, wind and solar.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 12:23:12 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 11:57:59 AM

Interesting word, "decimate."

It originated with the custom in the Roman army of punishing legions that disgraced themselves by executing every 10th man.

I actually knew that! :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 12:27:46 PM

The word December comes from the same root of course, tenth month of the year.

The term Friday comes from the tradition of having fried chicken on Friday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 12:36:34 PM

What would be our energy mix in 2030, or gigatons of CO2 produced in the US, under the following scenarios:

1.  Republicans are largely elected and little is done, or
2.  Democrats are largely elected and they do what they want for the most part?

If wind and solar are cheaper, won't that continue to replace fossil fuels fairly quickly?  What's the hold up here?  Does some government policy need to change to make this happen?

Presume normal economic growth, where will the US be in 2030 versus today?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 12:39:30 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 12:27:46 PM

The term Friday comes from the tradition of having fried chicken on Friday.

Not according to this... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friday (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friday)

Which makes sense, because I think the name of the day probably predates the invention of fried chicken...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 12, 2020, 12:55:02 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 11:02:54 AM

The answer to that question is simple: what is the optimal climate?

The one which supports human life on this planet. There is an acceptable range of climate variance in which we can continue to grow crops, to live in most regions of the planet, to support a population of 7-10B people.

The concern is that we drift outside that range, what are the implications?

The earth doesn't give af. It's undergone 5 mass extinctions (https://www.thoughtco.com/the-5-major-mass-extinctions-4018102) in history, and it's still here. So the question isn't what is the earth's optimal climate--it's what climate allows US as humans to thrive.

I think it's clear that climate is warming, and it's clear that a portion of that warming is due to CO2. That is undisputed.

The question is whether a warmer climate is adverse to our future?

True, but our burning of fossil fuels is equivalent to huge "natural" climate events happening every day, every month, every year, and always in the direction of adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Your point--that there are huge natural events that can swing climate--is valid. But most of those events are transitory or cyclical, not continuous. 

Agreed, and that IMHO is one of the blinds spots of the climate change alarmists. I think that many of them know NOTHING about economics. They assume that we can just stop producing CO2 and it won't have any negative effects, or that we can magically/economically transition to renewables by fiat.

It's why Cincy frames his argument the way he has done so--we're running this experiment through. Economically, the many third world nations trying to climb out of poverty--which are relying on cheap fossil fuel energy--will NOT simply give up their future economic success unless there's a breakthrough that makes renewables economically feasible to power their growth. That day may come, but it's not yet here.

I don't know. The world of 10,000 years ago wouldn't support 7B humans in an industrial society, so maybe we should try to avoid swinging the climate too far from a climate that we know actually WILL support 7B humans in an industrial society.

I think you're discounting the level of havoc that mankind could wreak. CO2 may be the least of our problems. We have enough nukes across the world that we could make Earth uninhabitable for humans in less than a day, and more and more nations trying to get them.

Which--if climate change really DOES cause adverse affects to our climate, may be more likely. What happens if we swing the pendulum far enough that we affect climate to the point where we can only grow enough crops for ~1B people? How much war, how much destruction, how much terror will occur to try to be one of those 1B rather than one of the other 6B?

You make a lot of valid points, but I do want to address the one in red. 

While I don't have the data in front of me and am really too busy go find it at the moment, there is debate as to whether or not C02 is a cause of warming is disputed. There is no concensus that it causes warming. There are those that believe that it is simply a by product of warming. 

And my point about the sun dictating out climate is that there is nothing we can do about that. The climate will do what the sun dictates. As for a massive nuclear event, if that happens, the climate will be the least of our worries. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 12, 2020, 12:56:41 PM

Wind and solar will continue to grow regardless while coal goes away.

Trump is just trying to delay the inevitable and his efforts have been largely ineffective.

Democratic states are accelerating the transition to renewables and Biden would do the same at a national level. Again, though, it really shouldn't be a political issue, and even in some moderate to conservative states (eg. Texas, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona) it isn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 01:03:49 PM

Well, it surely sounds as if we don't need any government action here, nor a plan, nor any kind of concise analysis, it's all going to happen, like magic.

I'm not so optimistic, nor so naive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 01:05:00 PM

So, put it another way, two scenarios, what is our CO2 output in the US by 2030?

1.  Government intervention to accelerate change, and

2.  No government intervention.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 01:19:27 PM

 increased fossil fuel consumption drove an estimated 2.3% increase in Chinese CO₂ emissions in 2018 and 4% in the first half of 2019, marking a third year of growth after emissions had appeared to level out between 2014 and 2016. Exacerbating this deteriorating picture is the fact that China started construction of 28 GW of new coal-fired power capacity in 2018 after lifting a previous construction ban, bringing its total coal capacity under construction to 245 GW. China’s recent increased coal consumption and development is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement, under which 1.5˚C compatible pathways for non-OECD Asia coal power generation would need to be reduced 63% by 2030 [below 2010 levels], leading to a phase-out by 2037. China’s emissions, like the rest of the world’s, need to peak imminently, and then decline rapidly.

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/ (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/)

China’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise until at least 2030, although the rate of increase is projected to slow towards the end of the 2020s. Under optimistic renewables growth assumptions, energy-related CO₂ emissions could level off over the next few years, but these emissions continue to grow in our upper-bound scenario. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 01:30:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 01:19:27 PM

marking a third year of growth after emissions had appeared to level out between 2014 and 2016. 

Their stock market crashed in 2015.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 02:02:48 PM

I still don't know where global CO2 generation will be in 2030 under two plausible scenarios.

Optimistic, and business as usual.  If we knew that, we could figure how much difference it would make on climate change using the models.

And yes, I understand that longer term the changes are magnified, so let's look at them as well.

The MIT Climate Group has done that already of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 02:51:18 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 12, 2020, 12:55:02 PM

While I don't have the data in front of me and am really too busy go find it at the moment, there is debate as to whether or not C02 is a cause of warming is disputed. There is no concensus that it causes warming. There are those that believe that it is simply a by product of warming.

Well, the idea that it's a byproduct of warming doesn't make sense, because if you look at the CO2 in the atmosphere, we can determine due to the isotope that it's caused by burning fossil fuels as opposed to natural sources of CO2. So unless the argument is that warming caused man to burn a bunch of fossil fuels, it doesn't make any sense that atmospheric CO2 concentration would be a byproduct of warming.

The idea that atmospheric CO2 concentration and measured warming are simply unrelated phenomena may be something some people believe, but the idea that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that higher CO2 concentrations would cause warming is not particularly up for debate, even among most skeptics. 

The idea that CO2 is not the ONLY cause of our warming planet is a point of legitimate debate, and thus how much of the experienced warming is attributed to man is up for debate. As mentioned there is natural drift in climate for any number of reasons, but I don't think you'd find anyone inside the scientific mainstream that would argue mankind's effect is zero.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 02:52:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 01:19:27 PM

China’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise until at least 2030, although the rate of increase is projected to slow towards the end of the 2020s. Under optimistic renewables growth assumptions, energy-related CO₂ emissions could level off over the next few years, but these emissions continue to grow in our upper-bound scenario.

In Washington, that's defined as a cut.

(At least as applied to gov't spending.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on May 12, 2020, 03:13:59 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 12, 2020, 12:55:02 PM

You make a lot of valid points, but I do want to address the one in red.

While I don't have the data in front of me and am really too busy go find it at the moment, there is debate as to whether or not C02 is a cause of warming is disputed. There is no concensus that it causes warming. There are those that believe that it is simply a by product of warming.

And my point about the sun dictating out climate is that there is nothing we can do about that. The climate will do what the sun dictates. As for a massive nuclear event, if that happens, the climate will be the least of our worries.

And this is where those who believe that climate change is "man-made" are going to have a problem.

There are a large number of people, including myself who believe the climate is changing, but are not convince that man is the cause of it.

Then to top it, there are those of us who believe that economic decisions should be allowed follow "natural" course so there are not market inefficiency and Adam Smith's blind hand will determine how resources are allocated. I am firm believer that if left alone (which isn't the case in most markets) that supply and demand will determine the correct level and mix of supply that is most beneficial. So people like me will continue to oppose subsidies and other methods to prop up an alternative energy source that is not economically efficient.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 03:16:47 PM

The Invisible Hand approach doesn't work well when the problem is off in the future and there is benefit today in ignoring it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 03:34:28 PM

https://theconversation.com/why-the-next-two-years-are-critical-for-the-paris-climate-deals-survival-107931 (https://theconversation.com/why-the-next-two-years-are-critical-for-the-paris-climate-deals-survival-107931)

A critical juncture
If countries don't commit to – and deliver on – more ambitious emissions cuts in the next two years, it will be difficult to prevent temperatures from rising more than 2 degree Celsius compared to preindustrial times.
30.040.050.060.070.0201520202025203020352040Current national pledges201555.2Current national pledges201555.2

Global emissions path needed to limit warming to 2 degree goal, measured in billions of tons of equivalent CO2

Current national pledges
Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND  Source: MIT 2018 Climate Outlook, Henry Jacoby and Jennifer Morris (https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IUALf/7/)

The pledges for 2030 are just the first step, however. Getting the globe onto a path to the 2°C Paris goal, much less to meet its stretch objective (http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/) of 1.5°C, will require stronger action beyond 2030.

How tough the emissions restrictions must be in the next decade or two depends on the pace of reduction that may be feasible later in the century – and here emerging technology could possibly play a role. For example, a significant effort is underway to develop techniques to suck carbon dioxide (CO2) out of the air and store it underground (https://www.nap.edu/resource/25259/Negative Emissions Technologies.pdf). If we could count on this option becoming available and affordable in the future, participating nations in the Paris Agreement could relax their emissions controls a bit now and the temperature goal could potentially still be met.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 03:34:42 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 03:16:47 PM

The Invisible Hand approach doesn't work well when the problem is off in the future and there is benefit today in ignoring it.

Especially given that the economic concept of an externality post-dates The Wealth of Nations by almost a century. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 03:36:23 PM

Trees are probably the most efficient practicable means of storing carbon IF you cut them after their initial growth spurt and bury them somewhere.  It is of course feasible to extract CO2 from air artificially, but you're working against a heavy entropic load, which requires enthalpy to offset.

The Paris targets are insufficient, and they won't be met anyway globally.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/31/paris-climate-deal-2c-warming-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/31/paris-climate-deal-2c-warming-study)

There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2C come the end of the century, according to new research that paints a sobering picture of the international effort to stem dangerous climate change (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jul/25/bill-nye-the-science-guy-climate-change-books-netflix).

 (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jul/25/bill-nye-the-science-guy-climate-change-books-netflix)
Global trends in the economy, emissions and population growth make it extremely unlikely that the planet will remain below the 2C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/paris-climate-agreement) in 2015, the study states.
The Paris accord, signed by 195 countries, commits (https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf) to holding the average global temperature to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels and sets a more aspirational goal to limit warming to 1.5C. This latter target is barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5C.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 03:52:30 PM

https://scitechdaily.com/the-truth-behind-the-paris-agreement-climate-pledges-insufficient-to-address-climate-change/ (https://scitechdaily.com/the-truth-behind-the-paris-agreement-climate-pledges-insufficient-to-address-climate-change/)

Almost 75% of 184 Paris Agreement pledges were judged insufficient to slow climate change; Only 28 European Union nations and 7 others will reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2030.

• Almost 75 percent of 184 Paris Agreement pledges were judged insufficient to slow climate change
• Only 28 European Union nations & 7 others will reduce emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030
• China & India, top emitters, will reduce emissions intensity, but their emissions will increase

Another indicator that reflects the lack of action to fight climate change: 97 percent of the 184 climate pledges are the same as those initially submitted in 2015-2016 after the Paris Agreement was adopted. Only six countries have reviewed their pledges: 4 countries increased their plan to cut emissions; 2 nations weakened their pledges.

“Even if all climate pledges which are voluntary are fully implemented, they will cover less than half of what is needed to limit the acceleration of climate change in the next decade,” says Dr. Watson.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 04:03:45 PM

we're all doomed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 04:23:11 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 12, 2020, 12:55:02 PM

You make a lot of valid points, but I do want to address the one in red.

While I don't have the data in front of me and am really too busy go find it at the moment, there is debate as to whether or not C02 is a cause of warming is disputed. There is no concensus that it causes warming. There are those that believe that it is simply a by product of warming.

And my point about the sun dictating out climate is that there is nothing we can do about that. The climate will do what the sun dictates. As for a massive nuclear event, if that happens, the climate will be the least of our worries.

No, there isn't.  Not seriously, anyway.  There's debate as to whether the earth is flat.  Doesn't mean it is.

Absolutely CO2 causes global warming.  That's a fact.

You can run experiments to prove it.

Even mythbusters did one (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPRd5GT0v0I#action=share)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 04:27:11 PM

CO2 is a known greenhouse gas.  How much the level in our atmosphere impacts global temperatures is less well understood.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 04:31:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 01:05:00 PM

So, put it another way, two scenarios, what is our CO2 output in the US by 2030?

1.  Government intervention to accelerate change, and

2.  No government intervention.

That's an impossible question to answer.

Scenario 1:  Ohio State is awarded a federal grant from funds created by the Biden climate Buckeye fund.  They create cheap nuclear fusion and a viable carbon capture system.  Biden's election solves one of humanity's great problems.

Scenario 2:  Ohio State is awarded a federal grant from funds created by the Biden climate Buckeye fund.  Research is done, but no meaningful changes result.

In reality the answer is somewhere in between.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 04:36:08 PM

Yeah, the usual dodge.  Nobody is going to come up with fusion by 2030.  Reality is no matter who is elected, this is going to happen.  Intervention or not, won't make any real difference.

I've posted article after article showing why I believe it's simply too late and we're going to find out what happens in real time.

The only argument against that is "wind and solar".  It's tiring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 04:47:39 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 12, 2020, 03:34:42 PM

Especially given that the economic concept of an externality post-dates The Wealth of Nations by almost a century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality)

From the linked piece.  Good explanation, but I made the one change in bold.

Quote

In economics, an externality is the cost or benefit that affects a third party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit.[1] Externalities often occur when the production or consumption of a product or service's private price equilibrium cannot reflect the true costs or benefits of that product or service for society as a whole.[2][3] This causes the externality competitive equilibrium to not be a Pareto optimality.

Externalities can be either positive or negative. Governments and institutions often take actions to internalize externalities, thus market-priced transactions can incorporate all the benefits and costs associated with transactions between economic agents.[4][5] The most common way this is done is by imposing taxes on the producers of this externality. This is usually done similar to a quote where there is no tax imposed and then once the externality reaches a certain point there is a very high tax imposed. However, since regulators do not always never have all the information on the externality it can be difficult to impose the right tax. Once the externality is internalized through imposing a tax the competitive equilibrium is now Pareto optimal.

For example, manufacturing activities that cause air pollution impose health and clean-up costs on the whole society, whereas the neighbors of individuals who choose to fire-proof their homes may benefit from a reduced risk of a fire spreading to their own houses. If external costs exist, such as pollution, the producer may choose to produce more of the product than would be produced if the producer were required to pay all associated environmental costs. Because responsibility or consequence for self-directed action lies partly outside the self, an element of externalization is involved. If there are external benefits, such as in public safety, less of the good may be produced than would be the case if the producer were to receive payment for the external benefits to others. For the purpose of these statements, overall cost and benefit to society is defined as the sum of the imputed monetary value of benefits and costs to all parties involved.[6][7]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 04:53:38 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on May 12, 2020, 03:13:59 PM

And this is where those who believe that climate change is "man-made" are going to have a problem.

There are a large number of people, including myself who believe the climate is changing, but are not convince that man is the cause of it.

Then to top it, there are those of us who believe that economic decisions should be allowed follow "natural" course so there are not market inefficiency and Adam Smith's blind hand will determine how resources are allocated. I am firm believer that if left alone (which isn't the case in most markets) that supply and demand will determine the correct level and mix of supply that is most beneficial. So people like me will continue to oppose subsidies and other methods to prop up an alternative energy source that is not economically efficient.

Here's the thing about science.  It doesn't care if you believe it.

The earth is round, vaccines don't cause autism, and man is certainly driving climate change by increasing CO2 levels.

Arguing any of this points is possible, but certainly easily disproved.

If you want to debate libertarianism, that's politics, not science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 04:54:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 03:36:23 PM

Trees are probably the most efficient practicable means of storing carbon IF you cut them after their initial growth spurt and bury them somewhere.  It is of course feasible to extract CO2 from air artificially, but you're working against a heavy entropic load, which requires enthalpy to offset.

The Paris targets are insufficient, and they won't be met anyway globally.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/31/paris-climate-deal-2c-warming-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/31/paris-climate-deal-2c-warming-study)

There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2C come the end of the century, according to new research that paints a sobering picture of the international effort to stem dangerous climate change (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jul/25/bill-nye-the-science-guy-climate-change-books-netflix).

 (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jul/25/bill-nye-the-science-guy-climate-change-books-netflix)
Global trends in the economy, emissions and population growth make it extremely unlikely that the planet will remain below the 2C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/paris-climate-agreement) in 2015, the study states.
The Paris accord, signed by 195 countries, commits (https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf) to holding the average global temperature to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels and sets a more aspirational goal to limit warming to 1.5C. This latter target is barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5C.

I'll make the point again that I tried to make upthread.  1840--which according to BBTS is where the baseline is set--is not "pre-indstrial."  We had already come out of the Little Ice Age, partly because of the industrialization that began in Britain about 1760.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 04:56:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 04:27:11 PM

CO2 is a known greenhouse gas.  How much the level in our atmosphere impacts global temperatures is less well understood. 

Calculations on the roundness of the earth are still being refined.

That doesn't mean we don't understand how round the earth is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 04:59:17 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 04:54:54 PM

I'll make the point again that I tried to make upthread.  1840--which according to BBTS is where the baseline is set--is not "pre-indstrial."  We had already come out of the Little Ice Age, partly because of the industrialization that began in Britain about 1760.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, the "little ice age" was probably regional phenomena, not global.

It is interesting, but has little bearing on the impacts of climate change. 

(https://i.imgur.com/iVUr9fS.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 05:00:56 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 04:47:39 PM

From the linked piece.  Good explanation, but I made the one change in bold.

Quite obviously true. Knowing that something must be done to curb an externality is a lot different than knowing what must be done and exactly how much of it we need. 

That said, the idea of the invisible hand doesn't even account for externalities, because the externality doesn't regularly come into question when it comes to setting a market-clearing price and satisfying the needs of buyers and sellers.

I'd argue that CO2 emissions are a negative externality to the market of producing/using energy. How we deal that is a major question, but we shouldn't expect "the market" to be able to address is naturally. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:01:09 PM

The increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere wasn't of consequence until perhaps 1940, depending on what metric you use.

Folks who are so convinced about the models and what should be done (which you'll notice seems to be yell wind and solar at every op) should read Judith Curry's thoughts on this.  It's hard to discount her as a nutcase when her actions are those of a scientist who is resisting the "rush to judgement" on certain aspects of this.  (One thing she and I accept as likely true is that human activity is changing our climate.)

https://judithcurry.com/about/ (https://judithcurry.com/about/)

A good scientist is always challenging assumptions, if there is decent reason for the challenge.  At times, you have to make assumptions based on a best guess and act accordingly of course, but they remain assumptions based on perhaps incomplete understanding.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:05:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 04:36:08 PM

Yeah, the usual dodge.  Nobody is going to come up with fusion by 2030.  Reality is no matter who is elected, this is going to happen.  Intervention or not, won't make any real difference.

I've posted article after article showing why I believe it's simply too late and we're going to find out what happens in real time.

The only argument against that is "wind and solar".  It's tiring.

Who knows, maybe not that far away
 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50267017)
You have a pessimistic view of the world.  There's a lot of positive information out there.  

The world is not doomed.  We are very close to finding real solutions to climate change. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 05:08:12 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 04:59:17 PM

As mentioned earlier in this thread, the "little ice age" was probably regional phenomena, not global.

It is interesting, but has little bearing on the impacts of climate change. 

(https://i.imgur.com/iVUr9fS.png)

Yes, you mentioned that about the Little Ice Age upthread.  Do you know what presumably caused the regional phenomenon (or phenomena) without affecting the rest of the world?

I've seen lots of criticism of the "hockey stick" by people who at least seem to know what they are talking about and have lots of academic initials after their names.  Perhaps coincidentally, I seldom see the hockey stick brought out as evidence any more.  Is it still considered valid by mainstream climatologists?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 05:14:15 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 12, 2020, 05:00:56 PM

Quite obviously true. Knowing that something must be done to curb an externality is a lot different than knowing what must be done and exactly how much of it we need.

That said, the idea of the invisible hand doesn't even account for externalities, because the externality doesn't regularly come into question when it comes to setting a market-clearing price and satisfying the needs of buyers and sellers.

I'd argue that CO2 emissions are a negative externality to the market of producing/using energy. How we deal that is a major question, but we shouldn't expect "the market" to be able to address is naturally.

Oh, I agree.  With the understanding that the government is intervening by necessity and that resources are therefore not going to be utilized very efficiently.  Because the government is always political, and political considerations typically outweigh all others.  If we were to somehow make it not political, which was the goal of the Progressives, it would be tyrannical.  So there will always be Solyndras, government-sponsored endeavors designed to enrich key political donors and bundlers more than to accomplish the purported objectives.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 12, 2020, 05:18:43 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:05:38 PM

Who knows, maybe not that far away
 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50267017)
You have a pessimistic view of the world.  There's a lot of positive information out there. 

The world is not doomed.  We are very close to finding real solutions to climate change. 

Agreed.

I work in this space. Most people are frustrated but optimistic. That's how I and others keep our sanity.

Fusion is probably still a ways off, but I have more hope for it becoming economical than any type of nuclear plant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:19:56 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:05:38 PM

The world is not doomed.  We are very close to finding real solutions to climate change. 

How close?  What solution?  Do "we" need to "do "anything extra?  Or will it just happen?  Shirley you don't mean ITER.

I didn't say we're doomed.  I said we will run the experiment and find out.  No one has presented any data based alternative point of view.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:20:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:01:09 PM

The increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere wasn't of consequence until perhaps 1940, depending on what metric you use.

Folks who are so convinced about the models and what should be done (which you'll notice seems to be yell wind and solar at every op) should read Judith Curry's thoughts on this.  It's hard to discount her as a nutcase when her actions are those of a scientist who is resisting the "rush to judgement" on certain aspects of this.  (One thing she and I accept as likely true is that human activity is changing our climate.)

https://judithcurry.com/about/ (https://judithcurry.com/about/)

A good scientist is always challenging assumptions, if there is decent reason for the challenge.  At times, you have to make assumptions based on a best guess and act accordingly of course, but they remain assumptions based on perhaps incomplete understanding.

Judith Curry absolutely believes climate change is real.  She absolutely believes it could be catastrophic.  She questions (on her blog) about the accuracy of climate change projections because there could be SOMETHING out there that will happen that we haven't accounted for.  She basically thinks there is a chance we have gotten it all wrong.

Honestly, it's super weak sauce, but it is valid.

Interestingly enough, IPCC projections actually agree with her.  We aren't 100% sure what can happen, which is why they give their projections a fairly large margin for error, and also only around a 95% degree of confidence.

However, let's look at how climate models have performed so far - most of them underestimated global warming
 (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming)
And, for the record, I did read your links.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 12, 2020, 05:20:52 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 05:14:15 PM

Oh, I agree.  With the understanding that the government is intervening by necessity and that resources are therefore not going to be utilized very efficiently.  Because the government is always political, and political considerations typically outweigh all others.  If we were to somehow make it not political, which was the goal of the Progressives, it would be tyrannical.  So there will always be Solyndras, government-sponsored endeavors designed to enrich key political donors and bundlers more than to accomplish the purported objectives.

The vast majority of ARPA-E projects have been successful and the program has more than paid for itself. Solyndra gave it a lot of bad press, but those bad investments were minimal overall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:22:46 PM

When I was working on "compostable polymers", people were optimistic too.  I was as well early on.  Gradually I started taking a hard look at "REALITY".  I got into trouble writing about REALITY.

And, I was right.  I got punished for being right.  That was not the only time that happened.

I was wrong my share of the time also of course, it helps with modesty and questioning what is really known about a topic, and what is spi, PR, wishful thinking, wind and solar, and a lot of hot air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:32:34 PM

https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/curry-testimony-house-natural-resources.pdf (https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/curry-testimony-house-natural-resources.pdf)

I find this to be an interesting perspective by someone who has credentials to match anyone in the field.  She may be wrong of course.

She at least is modest about what is known here.

Scientific progress is driven by uncertainty and disagreement; working to resolve these uncertainties and disagreements drives the knowledge frontier forward. Attempts by government policy makers to intimidate climate scientists34 whose research or public statements are perceived to be in opposition to a preferred policy narrative are enormously detrimental to scientific progress. I am making one ‘ask’ today: please allow climate science and the research process to proceed unfettered by political attacks on scientists. We need to acknowledge that climate-related decisions involve incomplete information from a fast-moving and irreducibly uncertain science. Uncertainty and disagreement is what drives the knowledge frontier forward; please help that process to flourish. Only in the most simple-minded policy making frameworks does scientific uncertainty and disagreement prescribe ‘no action.’ It is up to the political process (international, national, and local) to decide how to contend with the climate problem, with all of its uncertainties, complexity and wickedness. T

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:33:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:19:56 PM

How close?  What solution?  Do "we" need to "do "anything extra?  Or will it just happen?  Shirley you don't mean ITER.

I didn't say we're doomed.  I said we will run the experiment and find out.  No one has presented any data based alternative point of view. 

Your questions are those of a pessimist.  But I'll bite and give you some optimism.

Fossil fuels are simply stored energy.  I believe that batteries (energy storage) are the real key to making viable "green" energy.  Battery storage continues to improve, as does the cost of battery production.  Who knows, maybe some government funded research in this area would produce something amazing.  Graphene looks like it could be an awesome capacitor, for example.

A Graphene supercapacitor is said to store almost as much energy as alithium-ion battery, charge and discharge in seconds and maintain all this over tens of thousands of charging cycles. link

 (https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-supercapacitors)I've already linked the progress being made towards nuclear fusion.  It really would be awesome if the US Government invested in more of this research.

Carbon capture systems continue to become more and more efficient, and will hopefully improve to the point to make a meaningful difference.  Again, would be nice if some Big 10 universities got federal grant money to pursue this topic.

We continue to become more energy efficient.  

There is a global effort to reduce carbon emissions, although it would be nice if the USA was on the forefront of this effort, instead of hindering it.  If we treat it like a joke, others will, too.

We continue to move away from oil and coal.  

There's more, of course.

I'm sure you'll put on your Eeyore hat when you respond to this post, and that's ok.  There are a lot of positive changes being made.  Put your tail back on.  Humanity isn't done for yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:39:18 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:05:38 PM

The world is not doomed.  We are very close to finding real solutions to climate change. 

You didn't say we might be close to some developments that could help, you said we ARE VERY CLOSE to finding real solutions.

Then you post some well maybe this and maybe that could help some a bit maybe down the line.

This is disingenuous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:41:47 PM

What I see here is typical younger folks working in an area and being all pumped ip over and buying the Party Line hook line and sinker instead of asking critical questions and look at hard data and reality.

"WE are very close to finding real solutions."

And when asked what and by when, we get Fairy Dust maybe someday stuff.

I've seen it many times in my life, and it always always ends badly.

I base my judgments on hard data, not Fairy Dust and maybes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 12, 2020, 05:43:08 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 11:57:59 AM

Interesting word, "decimate."

It originated with the custom in the Roman army of punishing legions that disgraced themselves by executing every 10th man.

This should be implemented on Congress & Corporate - past & present - let's go 2 out of 10,have a lot of catching up to do

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 05:45:35 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:33:36 PM

Fossil fuels are simply stored energy.  I believe that batteries (energy storage) are the real key to making viable "green" energy.  Battery storage continues to improve, as does the cost of battery production.  Who knows, maybe some government funded research in this area would produce something amazing.  Graphene looks like it could be an awesome capacitor, for example.

A Graphene supercapacitor is said to store almost as much energy as alithium-ion battery, charge and discharge in seconds and maintain all this over tens of thousands of charging cycles. link
 (https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-supercapacitors)

I've spent the last decade reading about how hard drives are dead due to SSDs (they're not because NAND flash doesn't scale well enough economically).

And I've spent at least half the last decade reading about all the breakthrough new memory storage technologies that are just around the corner of killing off NAND flash once they get out of the lab (yet they never seem to get out of the lab).

If something with the properties of a graphene supercapacitor actually makes it out of the lab, can actually be produced economically and in very high volumes, then I will cheer my head off for it.

But I've read too many hype pieces about technology that looks great in theory and in lab tests but doesn't have the ability to scale. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:48:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:32:34 PM

https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/curry-testimony-house-natural-resources.pdf (https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/curry-testimony-house-natural-resources.pdf)

I find this to be an interesting perspective by someone who has credentials to match anyone in the field.  She may be wrong of course.

She at least is modest about what is known here.

Yeah, I've seen her blog before, and I've heard her make this testimony.

Let me translate.

"Oh, certainly the earth is getting warmer and has warmed from man-made CO2."
"There could be something out there we haven't found yet, though.  Which means the science could be totally wrong."
"It's the future, so, like, we don't really know and stuff.  Nobody really knows the future."
"So like, if we stopped burning fossil fuels right now it would probably be bad.  Cause, yknow, we don't have any other options and like babies would die and football would be cancelled forever."
"Well, is it worth babies dying for something we aren't even sure of?  Would be a shame to kill babies and then find out we were going to be saved by cthulu in 2050."
"Plus, like, the earth is super strong.  Cockroaches will even survive a nuclear holocaust.  Obviously there is no need to rush to judgement here.  Life will survive.  _{(in some capacity)}."
"Anyhow, because we can't be sure, we should probably keep using fossil fuels.  _{After all, they've been writing my paycheck (https://archive.is/BL5R) since 2007}."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:54:08 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:39:18 PM

You didn't say we might be close to some developments that could help, you said we ARE VERY CLOSE to finding real solutions.

Then you post some well maybe this and maybe that could help some a bit maybe down the line.

This is disingenuous.

Ok Eeyore.

If ya want to argue about the definition of "very close" then I will give you specific dates.

On December 12, 2049, cthulhu will descend from the heavens and will breathe in all of the excess CO2 and fart out pure oxygen, thereby saving the planet.  He will leave us on December 13th, 2049, but not before extending the college football season to 52 weeks.

Praise Cthulhu.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:54:41 PM

Well, once again, I question your reading comprehension abilities.

The ad hominem attacks on her of course usually are better worded and often epic because she doesn't quite toe the Party Line.  They don't of course address her actual comments and thoughts, they just go after her as a person, or "summarize" what they claim she said that of course she never said or meant.

To me, this is perhaps a sign she is hitting close to home.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:55:36 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:54:08 PM

Ok Eeyore.

If ya want to argue about the definition of "very close" then I will give you specific dates.

You made the claim, now you can't back it up.

Typical.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:58:03 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 12, 2020, 05:45:35 PM

I've spent the last decade reading about how hard drives are dead due to SSDs (they're not because NAND flash doesn't scale well enough economically).

And I've spent at least half the last decade reading about all the breakthrough new memory storage technologies that are just around the corner of killing off NAND flash once they get out of the lab (yet they never seem to get out of the lab).

If something with the properties of a graphene supercapacitor actually makes it out of the lab, can actually be produced economically and in very high volumes, then I will cheer my head off for it.

But I've read too many hype pieces about technology that looks great in theory and in lab tests but doesn't have the ability to scale.

I agree 100%.  But it might be worth some investigation with federal grant dollars.  Maybe.

China (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/11/1944774/0/en/World-Graphene-Industry-Report-2019-2025-with-a-Focus-on-the-Chinese-Market-Chinese-Graphene-Market-Will-Sustain-Growth-Rates-of-at-Least-50-During-2019-2025-Bolstered-by-Policies.html) is investing heavily into it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:59:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:54:41 PM

Well, once again, I question your reading comprehension abilities.

The ad hominem attacks on her of course usually are better worded and often epic because she doesn't quite toe the Party Line.  They don't of course address her actual comments and thoughts, they just go after her as a person, or "summarize" what they claim she said that of course she never said or meant.

To me, this is perhaps a sign she is hitting close to home.

I literally went in order of her testimony...

Granted, I paraphrased.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 06:00:41 PM

https://thebulletin.org/2018/02/iter-is-a-showcase-for-the-drawbacks-of-fusion-energy/# (https://thebulletin.org/2018/02/iter-is-a-showcase-for-the-drawbacks-of-fusion-energy/#)

Not a rosey picture that.  Maybe he's wrong, we can hope anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 07:04:48 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:58:03 PM

I agree 100%.  But it might be worth some investigation with federal grant dollars.  Maybe.

China (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/11/1944774/0/en/World-Graphene-Industry-Report-2019-2025-with-a-Focus-on-the-Chinese-Market-Chinese-Graphene-Market-Will-Sustain-Growth-Rates-of-at-Least-50-During-2019-2025-Bolstered-by-Policies.html) is investing heavily into it.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be looking at all these things. I'm an engineer. I love promising new technologies.

I've just been burned on them too many times not to realize that sometimes the hype when something shows nicely in a lab doesn't mean that it will actually scale.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 12, 2020, 07:26:33 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 12, 2020, 07:04:48 PM

I'm not saying we shouldn't be looking at all these things. I'm an engineer. I love promising new technologies.

I've just been burned on them too many times not to realize that sometimes the hype when something shows nicely in a lab doesn't mean that it will actually scale.

Some of these technologies won't be successful. Some of the ones that work still won't become economical. But there is enough investment in a wide range of them that some of them will be successful.

And it's not just the technologies themselves, but the policies that enable them. For example, residential solar didn't really take off until third party financing and leases became mainstream. Unfortunately, there are still a lot of states that don't permit that because utilities hold too much political power in those states.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 08:56:05 PM

so, I think I made a mistake, but I click on a link to give me an estimate for solar panels on my roof.............  had to give my email and cell #

_______________________________________

Right now, while the 26% solar tax credit exists and net metering is in place, solar is typically an excellent investment for homeowners.

24 panels - system size 8.4 kW - annual production 9270 kWh

Electric bill savings over 25 years
ⓘ

$48,354.42 or $161/month


the cost:
Monthly loan payment on 20 year loan at 4.99%

$79 or $18,960 total

_____________________________________

I would guess my average monthly electric bill is about $125 the last 5 years - not sure how I can save $161 a month

don't know if these solar panels and system would last 20 years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 09:25:16 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 08:56:05 PM

so, I think I made a mistake, but I click on a link to give me an estimate for solar panels on my roof.............  had to give my email and cell #

_______________________________________

Right now, while the 26% solar tax credit exists and net metering is in place, solar is typically an excellent investment for homeowners.

24 panels - system size 8.4 kW - annual production 9270 kWh

Electric bill savings over 25 years
ⓘ

$48,354.42 or $161/month


the cost:
Monthly loan payment on 20 year loan at 4.99%

$79 or $18,960 total

_____________________________________

I would guess my average monthly electric bill is about $125 the last 5 years - not sure how I can save $161 a month

don't know if these solar panels and system would last 20 years

Some people around these parts actually get checks back.  Solar produces more energy than they use, and they are compensated by the electric company.  

I did the math on it a few years ago and it was an 8 year payback.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 09:30:39 PM

that should be enough for some folks

get to a 5 year payback and I'd think it would take off

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 12, 2020, 10:51:45 PM

Most states have net-metering policies, so that customers only pay the difference between their consumption and their generation. That said, most states don't allow customers to get paid by the utility if they produce more than they consume during a giving billing period (any excess in a given period will simply be credited to the following month). It may still make sense to oversize your system if you plan on getting electric vehicle or electrifying another system in your home (eg. appliances and the hot water heater).

As I mentioned earlier, the states that allow leases and power purchase agreements are where roof-top solar has grown fastest because there is no up-front cost that way. I think this is up-to-date and it provides a better explanation of the payment structures: https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/solar-lease-map/ (https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/solar-lease-map/)), which largely correlate with the states that are not deregulated so the utilities still have all of the customers and at least some control over the generation mix.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 11:18:27 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 12, 2020, 05:43:08 PM

This should be implemented on Congress & Corporate - past & present - let's go 2 out of 10,have a lot of catching up to do

Next thing you know, you're going to be endorsing term limits.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 12:37:56 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 05:08:12 PM

Yes, you mentioned that about the Little Ice Age upthread.  Do you know what presumably caused the regional phenomenon (or phenomena) without affecting the rest of the world?

I've seen lots of criticism of the "hockey stick" by people who at least seem to know what they are talking about and have lots of academic initials after their names.  Perhaps coincidentally, I seldom see the hockey stick brought out as evidence any more.  Is it still considered valid by mainstream climatologists?

The quote you responded to... had a picture of the hockey stick in it.... 

I am not an expert on the little ice age, but there is an entire Wikipedia page on it with a lot of sources and far more detail.  

The “hockey stick” picture that you quoted had a grey area around a black line. The grey area is the area of uncertainty. Note how it shrinks as we move towards modern day. The “little ice age” is firmly in that period of uncertainty.  

Not that it matters. CO2 levels and temperatures have been consistently rising at increased levels for decades. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 13, 2020, 12:59:18 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 12:37:56 AM

The quote you responded to... had a picture of the hockey stick in it....

I am not an expert on the little ice age, but there is an entire Wikipedia page on it with a lot of sources and far more detail. 

The “hockey stick” picture that you quoted had a grey area around a black line. The grey area is the area of uncertainty. Note how it shrinks as we move towards modern day. The “little ice age” is firmly in that period of uncertainty. 

Not that it matters. CO2 levels and temperatures have been consistently rising at increased levels for decades.

I knew that was the hockey stick.  That's why I mentioned it.
IIRC, the criticism was that Mann (?) smoothed out the past temps so much that it basically eliminated the ups and downs, to the point that it's misleading.  It's got the Roman warm period looking a little cooler than the Greek cold period, for example.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 06:58:03 AM

Come back in say 25 years and we should have a better handle on this, more data with which to model.

But we won't have practicable fusion by then either.  The best way to sequester carbon is plant trees and then bury them, we don't need some fancy process fighting entropy.  Nature already figured it out and does it remarkably well.  Pine trees in the south grow "like weeks" and are planted to make paper and construction wood.  They are harvested in 20 years.  Eucalyptus in Brazil is harvested to make pulp for paper in seven years.  Paper that goes to landfill is not going to degrade for a long time.

The area is ripe for political PR of course.  Politicians can make noise signing agreements and holding climate conferences in snazzy resort cities every so often to make more commitments.  Voters seem to like these commitments, "By 2050, we will be carbon neutral" .... so says the 65 year old politician ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 13, 2020, 06:59:48 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 05:32:34 PM

https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/curry-testimony-house-natural-resources.pdf (https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/curry-testimony-house-natural-resources.pdf)

I find this to be an interesting perspective by someone who has credentials to match anyone in the field.  She may be wrong of course.

She at least is modest about what is known here.

Scientific progress is driven by uncertainty and disagreement; working to resolve these uncertainties and disagreements drives the knowledge frontier forward. Attempts by government policy makers to intimidate climate scientists34 whose research or public statements are perceived to be in opposition to a preferred policy narrative are enormously detrimental to scientific progress. I am making one ‘ask’ today: please allow climate science and the research process to proceed unfettered by political attacks on scientists. We need to acknowledge that climate-related decisions involve incomplete information from a fast-moving and irreducibly uncertain science. Uncertainty and disagreement is what drives the knowledge frontier forward; please help that process to flourish. Only in the most simple-minded policy making frameworks does scientific uncertainty and disagreement prescribe ‘no action.’ It is up to the political process (international, national, and local) to decide how to contend with the climate problem, with all of its uncertainties, complexity and wickedness. T

And that is a big part of the problem. I get very suspicious of any "science" that is promoted by government or corporations, it always has an agenda. And the "science" of Global Warming, now Global Climate Change, is one of the big ones. It has been politicized for decades by people with an agenda. 

What really turned me off was when Obama made the claim that "The science is settled." and that "97% or Climate Scientists agree" blah, blah, blah. That told me all I needed to know. The "science" had become politicized and now the President is being open about the politicization of it.  When that happens, I tend to be very wary of what they are trying to sell and will tend to believe just the opposite. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 13, 2020, 07:04:50 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 05:33:36 PM

Your questions are those of a pessimist.  But I'll bite and give you some optimism.

Fossil fuels are simply stored energy.  I believe that batteries (energy storage) are the real key to making viable "green" energy.  Battery storage continues to improve, as does the cost of battery production.  Who knows, maybe some government funded research in this area would produce something amazing.  Graphene looks like it could be an awesome capacitor, for example.

A Graphene supercapacitor is said to store almost as much energy as alithium-ion battery, charge and discharge in seconds and maintain all this over tens of thousands of charging cycles. link

 (https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-supercapacitors)I've already linked the progress being made towards nuclear fusion.  It really would be awesome if the US Government invested in more of this research.

Carbon capture systems continue to become more and more efficient, and will hopefully improve to the point to make a meaningful difference.  Again, would be nice if some Big 10 universities got federal grant money to pursue this topic.

We continue to become more energy efficient. 

There is a global effort to reduce carbon emissions, although it would be nice if the USA was on the forefront of this effort, instead of hindering it.  If we treat it like a joke, others will, too.

We continue to move away from oil and coal. 

There's more, of course.

I'm sure you'll put on your Eeyore hat when you respond to this post, and that's ok.  There are a lot of positive changes being made.  Put your tail back on.  Humanity isn't done for yet.

I see that you advocate for the Fed Gov't to fund this research. While that may sound good on the surface, the cost of doing so is too great for me to agree. Fed money NEVER comes without strings attached. Those "strings" or the consequence of those "strings", are generally worse than any good that comes from the research. 

Hell, most of my objection to the Climate Change propaganda is that it was pushed by government officials with an agenda. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 13, 2020, 07:07:32 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 12, 2020, 05:43:08 PM

This should be implemented on Congress & Corporate - past & present - let's go 2 out of 10,have a lot of catching up to do

Don't forget the lawyers. I've always said that we should line up all the lawyers, have them count from 1 to 3 and repeat, and then shoot all the 3's. If things don't get better soon, we do it again in a month. :)

P.S. One of my good friends is a lawyer. He thought it was funny. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 08:56:44 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/DLD2Ytm.png)

A nice chart illustrating the magnitude of the challenge here .... each year that passes without significant cuts makes it more difficult ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 09:36:53 AM

So looking at that graph, the black line is where we are.  Who here thinks there is a realistic chance of getting anywhere near the projected lines needed to "control" this thing?  I think at BEST we will be perhaps 10% lower by 2030, with great effort.  I think it more likely we are at the same rate or higher, for reasons I've posted previously, how countries are doing,what China is "doing" in particular.

Now, if wind and solar are truly better options than any other means of producing power, that is outstanding, it can happen because of market forces.  But the trend on W&S is pretty tepid in reality, despite all the glowing projections of a decade ago.  Wind is at 7.3% of all the US electricity production. 

Maybe it grows 10% a year off that base, maybe, that is barely enough to keep up with growing demand.  And the problem with replacing coal is that coal, like nuclear, is useful for baseline - steady - production, it is most efficient when it doesn't vary in output.  NG turbines can spool up in minutes and be producing power, and vice versa, so they are well paired with solar and wind which fluctuate.  We need some kind of baseline power source.  Yes, I know batteries are making great strides, ostensibly, fine.

Some think fusion power will be here very soon apparently.  Well, not some, nobody really thinks that at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 10:08:56 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 13, 2020, 12:59:18 AM

I knew that was the hockey stick.  That's why I mentioned it.
IIRC, the criticism was that Mann (?) smoothed out the past temps so much that it basically eliminated the ups and downs, to the point that it's misleading.  It's got the Roman warm period looking a little cooler than the Greek cold period, for example.

What was misleading about it?  Temperatures have been rising dramatically after being pretty consistent for hundreds of years.

It has been spot on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 10:17:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 09:36:53 AM

So looking at that graph, the black line is where we are.  Who here thinks there is a realistic chance of getting anywhere near the projected lines needed to "control" this thing?  I think at BEST we will be perhaps 10% lower by 2030, with great effort.  I think it more likely we are at the same rate or higher, for reasons I've posted previously, how countries are doing,what China is "doing" in particular.

Now, if wind and solar are truly better options than any other means of producing power, that is outstanding, it can happen because of market forces.  But the trend on W&S is pretty tepid in reality, despite all the glowing projections of a decade ago.  Wind is at 7.3% of all the US electricity production.

Maybe it grows 10% a year off that base, maybe, that is barely enough to keep up with growing demand.  And the problem with replacing coal is that coal, like nuclear, is useful for baseline - steady - production, it is most efficient when it doesn't vary in output.  NG turbines can spool up in minutes and be producing power, and vice versa, so they are well paired with solar and wind which fluctuate.  We need some kind of baseline power source.  Yes, I know batteries are making great strides, ostensibly, fine.

Some think fusion power will be here very soon apparently.  Well, not some, nobody really thinks that at all.

Solar accounted for almost 40% of all new electric generating capacity in the US in 2019.

Lots of positive things out there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 10:23:06 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 10:17:28 AM

Solar accounted for almost 40% of all new electric generating capacity in the US in 2019.

Lots of positive things out there.

I should also mention that solar grew by 23% in the USA last year.  That is in spite of tariffs that raised costs quite considerably.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 11:56:40 AM

Sounds great, I guess the problem is solved!!!  Something that produces a very small portion of our electricity grew from say 1.1% to 1.3%.

No need for any government plan or program or spending, it's all taking care of itself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 12:02:13 PM

It's funny of folks throw around percentage growth figures and fail to acknowledge the depths of the problem, and how little that actually does to reduce our CO2 output.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on May 13, 2020, 12:17:45 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 04:53:38 PM

Here's the thing about science.  It doesn't care if you believe it.

The earth is round, vaccines don't cause autism, and man is certainly driving climate change by increasing CO2 levels.

Arguing any of this points is possible, but certainly easily disproved.

If you want to debate libertarianism, that's politics, not science.

Forgive me my language. Let me state it another way. I believe the evidence and the scientific studies that have been done, do not "prove" that climate change is man-made. 

I am not going to cite studies because it is a waste of me time because you have accepted a theory as fact and have already closed your mind. 

And thank you very much for letting me know that Libertarianism is politics not science, I was so confused. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on May 13, 2020, 12:22:04 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 09:25:16 PM

Some people around these parts actually get checks back.  Solar produces more energy than they use, and they are compensated by the electric company. 

I did the math on it a few years ago and it was an 8 year payback. 

 One of the electric companies out here (SRP), has made it pretty useless to go solar. I had three estimates done with their program and never worked out to make it economically feasible. Now APS out here makes it worth while. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 13, 2020, 12:35:54 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on May 13, 2020, 12:17:45 PM

Forgive me my language. Let me state it another way. I believe the evidence and the scientific studies that have been done, do not "prove" that climate change is man-made.

Well, "prove" often depends on your burden of proof. 

Let's ask it a different way...

What is your confidence level on the theory that increased atmospheric CO2 levels, due to man's burning of fossil fuels, cause some warming of our global climate? 

0%? 10%? 33%? 90%? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 12:40:54 PM

I wasn't asked, but I believe it near certain that human actions are changing our climate, call it 90%.

I have tried my best to do a lot of reading on both sides of the topic.  I also believe, obviously, that "we" are not really "doing" anything about it that is much more that puffery.  I also think the "extreme" predictions by nonscience guys like Gore and that engineer dude have harmed the discussion immeasurably.

I think we should be trying to be dispassionate about any discussion and consider the real data, not some absurd movie.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:20:45 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on May 13, 2020, 12:17:45 PM

Forgive me my language. Let me state it another way. I believe the evidence and the scientific studies that have been done, do not "prove" that climate change is man-made.

I am not going to cite studies because it is a waste of me time because you have accepted a theory as fact and have already closed your mind.

And thank you very much for letting me know that Libertarianism is politics not science, I was so confused.

My mind is totally open.  If you can find some actual evidence against man made climate change, I am all ears.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 01:23:15 PM

Many of you have put more detailed thought into this issue than I have. My high-level understanding of the issue that faces us boils down to this, I think:

1) We can be certain enough that we (mankind) are causing climate change that we should be obligated to act to address it. As CD says, 90% should do it.

2) While the cost studies are imprecise, there is a very real cost to unmitigated climate change that will likely dwarf expenditures we could take now to attempt to combat it. Among those costs are social instability and warfare that come from dramatically shifting availability of resources.

3) Policy makers rarely seem willing to address those future costs.

4) We, as a people (and probably not just in the United States) seem to have no understanding of how our behavior impacts CO2 emissions. The cost of making and transporting an item is something we have very little concept of even without the inclusion of the carbon footprints associated with those activities. So although we may know the price of beef consumption in dollars, we have no grasp of its CO2 footprint (nor the footprint related to streaming video on our mobile devices).

5) The only currently realistic way to generate enough energy to reduce our CO2 emissions enough is widespread new nuclear production. However, because of the catastrophic risks associated with melt down (and other potential disasters/security issues), and the high capital investment required to build nuclear plants, there is no appetite to build nuclear infrastructure. Moreover, the people who are politically most motivated to address climate change--the Democratic left--are also generally opposed to nuclear energy. That's a difficult hill to climb. Similar to the disposal of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain (or anywhere else like it), there is an ideological purity that makes perfect the enemy of the good, and demands the impossible rather than accepting the flaws inherent what is possible.

6) There are major economic interests in many sectors of our economy that would suffer if we took a serious look at CO2 emission reductions: those include energy production (primarily oil and gas--coal is populist red meat, and already economically lost), transportation, food production, and even manufacturing, because transportation of foreign-made goods is a serious issue contributing to our CO2 footprint.

Which brings me to my final, depressing point. We likely know what we have to do to accomplish the reduction of our CO2 output to a level that isn't extremely dangerous to us as a species, and even more our current cultural identities, but we don't have the political will because it will be very disruptive to our current socio-economic structure. The saddest part about this is that many of the changes we could make--building nuclear power, updating our power grid, updating our transportation infrastructure (including a transition to a bigger rail-hub system and electric vehicles for final distribution), and including CO2 emission in the cost of producing goods (which would assist in returning more manufacturing to the United States), and changing our dietary standards (less meat, fewer processed foods)--would provide overall benefit to us as a nation beyond merely reducing our emissions and addressing the climate crisis. 

Nonetheless, marshaling the political will to take on these important tasks seems beyond our current capability. One of the--but hardly the only--reasons for that is the powerful economic interests opposed to what they will lose if we make a significant investment in addressing climate change. While the oil and gas industry leads that charge, it is not alone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:24:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 11:56:40 AM

Sounds great, I guess the problem is solved!!!  Something that produces a very small portion of our electricity grew from say 1.1% to 1.3%.

No need for any government plan or program or spending, it's all taking care of itself.

Solar provided 2% of US energy needs in 2019.  Growth is expected to continue to be between 20-50% annually.  Maybe we hit 3% in 2020!

And I will be the first to do tell you that we do need some type of government intervention.  I favor using government funding to advance research, and offering tax incentives to lower our dependence on oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:25:32 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on May 13, 2020, 12:22:04 PM

One of the electric companies out here (SRP), has made it pretty useless to go solar. I had three estimates done with their program and never worked out to make it economically feasible. Now APS out here makes it worth while.

I'm not sure where you live, but I installed a geothermal system and I love it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:30:30 PM

It's funny of folks throw around percentage growth figures and fail to acknowledge the depths of the problem, and how little that actually does to reduce our CO2 output.



Nobody is denying how serious climate change is.  Frankly, it does look terribly bleak.  However, don't disparage me because I choose to believe there is still hope.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 01:34:19 PM

I think it would be technically practicable to replace nearly all our coal fired plants by 2030 with a combination of renewable and nuclear and NG.  That would be a dent.

It's not politically practicable of course, as SF notes.  The two new reactors slated to come on line in a couple years will replace those being shut down in effect.

The French reprocess their nuclear waste incidentally, something we don't do since Nixon.  It significantly reduces the volume of the waste and recovers some useful materials.  It also isolates plutonium.  But nuclear is off the table obviously.

Solar is at 1.8%, the last figure I've seen, and wind is at 7.3% of the grid.  Both are growing fast of course, but off a relative low figure.  If you double these by whatever date, they are still short of where coal is now (somewhere around 20%, about the same as nuclear).

And of course, with economic growth we need more electricity.  And then there is transportation and other uses of fossil fuels.

I recall in 2010 seeing some "estimates" that wind would be up to 20% on the grid by today.  That is about when I started doing the basic math.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 01:34:49 PM

As a brief follow-up to my above post: I don't believe the "Green New Deal" as drafted is the right solution, but the concept is the right one: major investment in infrastructure that both creates economic wealth in the Keynesian sense, and addresses CO2 emissions. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 01:35:55 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:30:30 PM

It's funny of folks throw around percentage growth figures and fail to acknowledge the depths of the problem, and how little that actually does to reduce our CO2 output.



Nobody is denying how serious climate change is.  Frankly, it does look terribly bleak.  However, don't disparage me because I choose to believe there is still hope.

I disparage you because you provide no BASIS for your hope.  It's just some misguided sunny optimism, not anything based on any real critical analysis of what is REAL.

And you claim we're going to see great things very soon, and then mention fusion.  I can't take that seriously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:36:37 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 01:23:15 PM

Many of you have put more detailed thought into this issue than I have. My high-level understanding of the issue that faces us boils down to this, I think:

1) We can be certain enough that we (mankind) are causing climate change that we should be obligated to act to address it. As CD says, 90% should do it.

2) While the cost studies are imprecise, there is a very real cost to unmitigated climate change that will likely dwarf expenditures we could take now to attempt to combat it. Among those costs are social instability and warfare that come from dramatically shifting availability of resources.

3) Policy makers rarely seem willing to address those future costs.

4) We, as a people (and probably not just in the United States) seem to have no understanding of how our behavior impacts CO2 emissions. The cost of making and transporting an item is something we have very little concept of even without the inclusion of the carbon footprints associated with those activities. So although we may know the price of beef consumption in dollars, we have no grasp of its CO2 footprint (nor the footprint related to streaming video on our mobile devices).

5) The only currently realistic way to generate enough energy to reduce our CO2 emissions enough is widespread new nuclear production. However, because of the catastrophic risks associated with melt down (and other potential disasters/security issues), and the high capital investment required to build nuclear plants, there is no appetite to build nuclear infrastructure. Moreover, the people who are politically most motivated to address climate change--the Democratic left--are also generally opposed to nuclear energy. That's a difficult hill to climb. Similar to the disposal of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain (or anywhere else like it), there is an ideological purity that makes perfect the enemy of the good, and demands the impossible rather than accepting the flaws inherent what is possible.

6) There are major economic interests in many sectors of our economy that would suffer if we took a serious look at CO2 emission reductions: those include energy production (primarily oil and gas--coal is populist red meat, and already economically lost), transportation, food production, and even manufacturing, because transportation of foreign-made goods is a serious issue contributing to our CO2 footprint.

Which brings me to my final, depressing point. We likely know what we have to do to accomplish the reduction of our CO2 output to a level that isn't extremely dangerous to us as a species, and even more our current cultural identities, but we don't have the political will because it will be very disruptive to our current socio-economic structure. The saddest part about this is that many of the changes we could make--building nuclear power, updating our power grid, updating our transportation infrastructure (including a transition to a bigger rail-hub system and electric vehicles for final distribution), and including CO2 emission in the cost of producing goods (which would assist in returning more manufacturing to the United States), and changing our dietary standards (less meat, fewer processed foods)--would provide overall benefit to us as a nation beyond merely reducing our emissions and addressing the climate crisis.

Nonetheless, marshaling the political will to take on these important tasks seems beyond our current capability. One of the--but hardly the only--reasons for that is the powerful economic interests opposed to what they will lose if we make a significant investment in addressing climate change. While the oil and gas industry leads that charge, it is not alone.

1-5 are absolutely spot on.

6 is a bit more cloudy, but more accurate than I want to admit.

At this moment, I think the only real option is for humanity to find some type of cheap alternate source for energy storage and production. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 01:37:26 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 01:34:49 PM

As a brief follow-up to my above post: I don't believe the "Green New Deal" as drafted is the right solution, but the concept is the right one: major investment in infrastructure that both creates economic wealth in the Keynesian sense, and addresses CO2 emissions.

The GND is a "resolution".  It has zero enablement in it, it's just a set of goals.  Setting goals to me is fatuous nonsense if not followed by a serious plan.

I'm going to lose 30 pounds this year, by sitting around posting on the Internet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 01:42:07 PM

Sure, but most people who study leadership believe that mission statements matter. Heck, it's the second paragraph of the Army's five paragraph operations order--it comes before the execution part, because you need to know what you want to do to figure out how you are going to do it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:48:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 01:35:55 PM

I disparage you because you provide no BASIS for your hope.  It's just some misguided sunny optimism, not anything based on any real critical analysis of what is REAL.

And you claim we're going to see great things very soon, and then mention fusion.  I can't take that seriously.

What do you need as a basis for hope?

Did you even read the article I posted on fusion?  It is coming, and sooner than you think.

Solar is experiencing exponential growth, and that will probably continue for some time.

We continue to reduce coal emissions, despite significant political power trying to keep coal up and running.

Natural gas, although not perfect, is much more efficient than coal and replacing coal plants throughout the world.

These are all facts, and only scratch the surface of a "basis for my hope."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2020, 01:56:30 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 01:42:07 PM

Sure, but most people who study leadership believe that mission statements matter. Heck, it's the second paragraph of the Army's five paragraph operations order--it comes before the execution part, because you need to know what you want to do to figure out how you are going to do it.

very true, but we've had the mission statement for a while
it's obviously time for execution and we don't even have a plan yet

also, who set the number at 2 degrees Celsius?  Any chance it could be 3 degrees and more achievable?  but still ward off extinction 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 02:07:50 PM

Fusion has been coming sooner than I think for about 50 years now.  Unfortunately, it hasn't gotten here, and we're obviously nowhere near serious implementation of fusion power on the grid.  The ITER approach looks, to me, like a disaster, a waste of funds and focus.  If we need to depend on fusion to solve this crisis, in my view, we're in DEEP trouble, worse than I think.

I've posted before about having at least the outline of a rough plan.  There isn't one, anywhere, because it's not possible.

If there were a plan, somewhere, with more detail than "wind and solar!", we could step back and asses it.  

As for the GND, putting out some kind of target to me is pointless if it lacks a PLAN.  Nearly every trend line is BAD, and it has been BAD for 20 years.  Twenty years ago I thought this was a serious concern and saw some avenues to deal with it seriously.  Those avenues are dead ends or dried up.

Wishful happy talk just makes it all worse instead of dealing with reality.  Fusion is wishful happy talk.  Read the article I posted in ITER.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 13, 2020, 02:11:39 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 01:23:15 PM

1) We can be certain enough that we (mankind) are causing climate change that we should be obligated to act to address it. As CD says, 90% should do it.

2) While the cost studies are imprecise, there is a very real cost to unmitigated climate change that will likely dwarf expenditures we could take now to attempt to combat it. Among those costs are social instability and warfare that come from dramatically shifting availability of resources.

I just want to stop on the bolded part. 

We should only be obligated to act to address it if #2 is true. Unless we can prove #2 at a high confidence level, and that it will dwarf expenditures we can take now to avoid it OR take down the road to mitigate it.

Which means we need to model a range of outcomes and determine probability. If we're talking about extinction-level or mass-starvation disruptions from climate change, then it justifies nearly any amount of effort to mitigate it. If we're talking about economic dislocation spread over the course of a century, but we can fundamentally continue feeding 7-10B people, sometimes you make a choice that the economic growth we generate now will effectively "pay for" the ability to mitigate things in the future.

People talk about all the amazing economic opportunities in green energy, but if we're shuttering useful energy production and claiming the great economic benefit of green energy, it's just the broken window fallacy. That economic activity could go into other things to make our lives better.  

I think that my confidence that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that we're warming the earth, quite frankly, is a good measure ABOVE 90%. 

It's when you start getting into trying to figure out how bad warming is, economically, and trying to compare that to the economic opportunity cost of focusing on incentivizing green energy over what the world could otherwise inventing to improve the world? I'm not sure I know the answers there.

Therefore I can't say that because we're causing warming, we should be obligated to stop. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 02:19:48 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 13, 2020, 01:56:30 PM

very true, but we've had the mission statement for a while
it's obviously time for execution and we don't even have a plan yet

also, who set the number at 2 degrees Celsius?  Any chance it could be 3 degrees and more achievable?  but still ward off extinction

Here's (https://theconversation.com/why-is-climate-changes-2-degrees-celsius-of-warming-limit-so-important-82058) a great article on that very question.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2020, 03:35:37 PM

tanks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:16:59 PM

Some more perspective on ITER and the schedule for it, if it goes according to plan.  The timing for an actual functional power producing commercial fusion reactor is 2080 or so, IF everything goes as planned.  Maybe that is pessimistic (it's their schedule) and we get there by 2070 with actual power to the grid from fusion.  I don't think that is a realistic hope for combating climate change, is it?  And yes, someone else somewhere might have an earlier breakthrough, but this is the main global effort.  2070, maybe.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/iter-fusion-project-lies-about-the-dates-budget-and-power-levels.html (https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/iter-fusion-project-lies-about-the-dates-budget-and-power-levels.html)

 ITER talks about 50 megawatts in 500 MW out but the 50 MW in is for power directly to the heat the hydrogen and the out is heat. It is not electricity input to electricity output
* The budget they talk about is 20 billion euros. This include some material, the bureaucratic management costs and the costs of assembly. The donated hardware is not included. The budget is only to get ITER to 2025. It is not to the full power experiments which might start in 2027 and not for the deuterium and tritium experiments starting in 2035 and likely continuing to 2040.
* ITER is really spending about $2 billion per year. Normally when these projects get to the major operational phases the budget goes up. It would be likely that after 2025 the budget will start going up to $3 billion to $4 billion per year. This would mean another $45-60 billion from 2025-2040
* After ITER there will need to be multiple other reactors to reach a true commercial prototype.


So multiple pre-prototype projects out to 2060. Say four countries each with their own $100-200 billion project out to 2060.

Then prototypes out to 2070. This is all assuming the technology is working.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 04:24:31 PM

GDP and Energy consumption are no longer correlated thanks to energy efficiency improvements.

Consequently, electricity demand has stagnated, especially over the past decade, and the main reason it will increase in the future is due to electrification (not only in transportation, but other areas, too).

The GND gets a lot of bad press from conservatives because it includes a lot of social equity issues. The economics of it really shouldn't be controversial. Renewables and energy efficiency are creating more jobs than fossil fuels ever have, and they'll be among the first and fastest sectors to rebound after the pandemic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:27:30 PM

So, the point that demand has stagnated is not relevant for the future, and demand will grow ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 04:30:30 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:27:30 PM

So, the point that demand has stagnated is not relevant for the future, and demand will grow ....

My point is that electrification will simply replace fossil fuel demand with electricity demand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:32:17 PM

And my point is that wind and solar have to grow even faster in order to help keep up with increasing demand ... just to remain where it is today as percent of the grid.

What's going to replace coal and NG in time if demand picks up because of EVs?

I know, wind and solar.  And fusion.  In 2080.  Maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 04:39:55 PM

Electrification will just accelerate demand for more wind and solar. Yes, it might also keep existing coal and gas plants open longer, but electrification decreases oil & gas demand by much more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:47:46 PM

Here is one forecast for EVs in the US, I'm saying it's good or bad, it's just one:

(https://i.imgur.com/bCWshE7.png)

That would be one new vehicle out of six as an EV.  The percentage on the road would of course be less than that.  I've seen estimates that if every car on the road were an EV we could need 30% more generating capacity, but that varies a lot by state IF EVs are recharged at night.  Maybe this is too pessimistic, dunno, but it suggests about one in ten on the road by 2028 ...

It takes a while to turn over the fleet obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 05:04:08 PM

The Green New Deal's infrastructure ideals are laudable, but because it came from the far left of the Democratic party, it is also includes ideas like universal jobs, national health care, and some other stuff I don't remember right now, but don't have much to do with cleaner infrastructure. I happen to agree that we need a better national health care fix (I think most people agree with that in principal, but there are major disagreements on how to best provide everyone care), but that doesn't have a lot to do with greening our economy, nor does the idea of providing everyone a job (which simply isn't how the job market works). One thing I think I remember that is silly is the idea of doing away with air travel. More rail? Absolutely. In the place of shorter air routes? Yup. No air travel in a country our size? No way.

Anyway, it's the things like those that make the GND even a bad goal statement. Anyhoo...I think I'm going to jump back out of this thread before I get in over my head.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 13, 2020, 05:04:25 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 04:24:31 PM

GDP and Energy consumption are no longer correlated thanks to energy efficiency improvements.

Consequently, electricity demand has stagnated, especially over the past decade, and the main reason it will increase in the future is due to electrification (not only in transportation, but other areas, too).

You may remember that during the Great Recession, when basically anyone involved in home construction / renovation was out of work, there was a proposed program to help subsidize homeowners who were trying to improve the energy efficiency of their homes. 

It was DOA, though, because it got the unfortunate nickname "Cash for Caulkers" after the woeful failure of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. 

Cash for Clunkers was horrible because it destroyed economic assets, which might have goosed new car sales a little but basically created a new floor in auto prices because anything worth less than $5K was more efficient to destroy when buying a new car than to sell, so the poor couldn't find a used beater car to be able to get around. Basically it was what I referred to earlier--the broken window fallacy. 

Cash for Caulkers was actually a great idea. It seemed to hit basically the right things:

• Get out of work contractors actually back on the job earning a productive income.
• Help homeowners who may not have the capital to fund energy efficiency improvements, but unlike cash for clunkers, fixing up an older inefficient house doesn't destroy assets--it improves them.
• By improving energy efficiency in our national housing stock we reduce our aggregate national energy demand, which can either reduce prices, reduce needs for new electrical/gas generation. 

It would have targeted stimulus at the exact sector that needed it while generating positive externalities for the rest of us. 

But it got a bad nickname, and was thereby doomed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 05:33:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:16:59 PM

Some more perspective on ITER and the schedule for it, if it goes according to plan.  The timing for an actual functional power producing commercial fusion reactor is 2080 or so, IF everything goes as planned.  Maybe that is pessimistic (it's their schedule) and we get there by 2070 with actual power to the grid from fusion.  I don't think that is a realistic hope for combating climate change, is it?  And yes, someone else somewhere might have an earlier breakthrough, but this is the main global effort.  2070, maybe.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/iter-fusion-project-lies-about-the-dates-budget-and-power-levels.html (https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/iter-fusion-project-lies-about-the-dates-budget-and-power-levels.html)

ITER talks about 50 megawatts in 500 MW out but the 50 MW in is for power directly to the heat the hydrogen and the out is heat. It is not electricity input to electricity output
* The budget they talk about is 20 billion euros. This include some material, the bureaucratic management costs and the costs of assembly. The donated hardware is not included. The budget is only to get ITER to 2025. It is not to the full power experiments which might start in 2027 and not for the deuterium and tritium experiments starting in 2035 and likely continuing to 2040.
* ITER is really spending about $2 billion per year. Normally when these projects get to the major operational phases the budget goes up. It would be likely that after 2025 the budget will start going up to $3 billion to $4 billion per year. This would mean another $45-60 billion from 2025-2040
* After ITER there will need to be multiple other reactors to reach a true commercial prototype.


So multiple pre-prototype projects out to 2060. Say four countries each with their own $100-200 billion project out to 2060.

Then prototypes out to 2070. This is all assuming the technology is working.

Well once you've got fusion then maybe the energy lost during artificial carbon capture would be moot?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 05:41:19 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 05:04:08 PM

The Green New Deal's infrastructure ideals are laudable, but because it came from the far left of the Democratic party, it is also includes ideas like universal jobs, national health care, and some other stuff I don't remember right now, but don't have much to do with cleaner infrastructure. I happen to agree that we need a better national health care fix (I think most people agree with that in principal, but there are major disagreements on how to best provide everyone care), but that doesn't have a lot to do with greening our economy, nor does the idea of providing everyone a job (which simply isn't how the job market works). One thing I think I remember that is silly is the idea of doing away with air travel. More rail? Absolutely. In the place of shorter air routes? Yup. No air travel in a country our size? No way.

Anyway, it's the things like those that make the GND even a bad goal statement. Anyhoo...I think I'm going to jump back out of this thread before I get in over my head.

Honestly I hate when politicians from either side muck about in this arena.  There is no way health care and climate change should be tied together.   There is no way we should let the free hand of the market decide our fate, either.  At least guide it a little bit...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on May 13, 2020, 05:50:21 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:25:32 PM

I'm not sure where you live, but I installed a geothermal system and I love it. 

I haven't investigate geothermal lately, but I would suspect that it is fairly expensive here in the desert due to the highly compact and dense natural of the ground. Drilling down would not be easy.

It funny that me, not being a being a person who puts much credence in the man-made global warming has actually done a fair amount of investigating into self-energy production, not because of it benefit to society but because I would rather be self-sufficient for my energy creation. 

I have made plans for years to live off the grid, but life hasn't allowed it up to this point. 80 acres partially wooded, partially cleared for subsistence farming, a good water table and production of energy by Wind, solar and/or geothermal.  Its a dream.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 05:51:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:47:46 PM

Here is one forecast for EVs in the US, I'm saying it's good or bad, it's just one:

(https://i.imgur.com/bCWshE7.png)

That would be one new vehicle out of six as an EV.  The percentage on the road would of course be less than that.  I've seen estimates that if every car on the road were an EV we could need 30% more generating capacity, but that varies a lot by state IF EVs are recharged at night.  Maybe this is too pessimistic, dunno, but it suggests about one in ten on the road by 2028 ...

It takes a while to turn over the fleet obviously.

One thing that might effect this -- I believe the total number of cars on the road is supposed drop pretty significantly once self driving cars become viable.  

A typical person's car is only used for a fraction of the day.  In theory, a single self driving car could service multiple people.  Google/Uber/etc foresee such a world.  You'd schedule your pickup and a self driving car would be there to take you anywhere you need to go.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 05:58:49 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on May 13, 2020, 05:50:21 PM

I haven't investigate geothermal lately, but I would suspect that it is fairly expensive here in the desert due to the highly compact and dense natural of the ground. Drilling down would not be easy.

It funny that me, not being a being a person who puts much credence in the man-made global warming has actually done a fair amount of investigating into self-energy production, not because of it benefit to society but because I would rather be self-sufficient for my energy creation.

I have made plans for years to live off the grid, but life hasn't allowed it up to this point. 80 acres partially wooded, partially cleared for subsistence farming, a good water table and production of energy by Wind, solar and/or geothermal.  Its a dream. 

I dunno, the rocks here are crazy bad.  The drilling machines had no problem going right through them.

I do know some regions are better than others.  We paid $19,000 when our house was constructed.  I would assume it is more expensive now, or if you were to add it to an existing house.  Added $100 to the mortgage, and saved $200-300 a month in utility bills. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 06:15:21 PM

Geothermal uses a heat pump.  It doesn't use hot rocks from the ground.  It is very efficient and best when installed as new construction.  But, it's a heat pump.

Our HVAC system here is two heat pumps using water from the building.  The water comes in, the heat pump either extracts heat, in winter, or pushes heat into the water from the air, and the water either warmed or cooled goes back to the building cooling tower.  It's very efficient and somewhat akin to geothermal.

Geothermal works the same way except the coolant is fed through pipes in the ground where the temperature is a constant 55°F or so, winter or summer.  You need a good length of pipe(s) for this to work of course.  Heat pumps are great except the air to air kind, and they are OK down to about 40°F air temperature.

And the cool thing is they are air conditioners as well, same unit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 13, 2020, 06:20:03 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 05:51:23 PM

One thing that might effect this -- I believe the total number of cars on the road is supposed drop pretty significantly once self driving cars become viable. 

A typical person's car is only used for a fraction of the day.  In theory, a single self driving car could service multiple people.  Google/Uber/etc foresee such a world.  You'd schedule your pickup and a self driving car would be there to take you anywhere you need to go.

I think self-driving cars are a little farther away than most people think, and the business model that will cause wholesale adoption of car service vs car ownership will take some transition. 

My guess is that the earliest we see that is somewhere between 2025-2030. Tesla is making good progress in L2/L3 autonomy, but the jump to L5 autonomy is not trivial. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 06:27:59 PM

It could be further out, and it might not be adopted very quickly either except by urbanites like me.

How many folks use Uber/Lyft?  Suburbanites?  Folks in rural areas?

Not much.  We like our personal cars.  It will have an impact though, I just don't know when.  The GM Supercruise capability is impressive to me.

I could see a purpose designed odd looking self driving vehicle that would be great in cities and replace a lot of rapid transit.  We're supposed to build more light rail around here but I wonder if it will really happen, it seems to be a ways off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 06:33:13 PM

As I understand it, geothermal has great potential for volcanic islands like Hawaii, but it's just not cost-competitive in most situations.

I would also like to see a lot of existing dams that don't produce electricity retrofitted to do so. I still don't quite understand the holdup with that.

As for autonomous vehicles, I've been frustrated by the lack of progress on that front. From what I've heard, the technology is pretty much there and regulations are the main holdup. Once that is widely available it will definitely reduce the number of vehicles being used (and make car ownership obsolete for people in/near cities).... Hopefully Europe will be able adopt them sooner to prove their viability....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 13, 2020, 06:42:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 06:27:59 PM

It could be further out, and it might not be adopted very quickly either except by urbanites like me.

How many folks use Uber/Lyft?  Suburbanites?  Folks in rural areas?

Not much.  We like our personal cars.  It will have an impact though, I just don't know when.  

The supposed business model is that it will bring prices down. Right now the price of Uber/Lyft for all usage is not cost competitive with individual car ownership, and the time delay in suburban areas to get your ride isn't convenient. 

Removing the driver will bring the price down, and bringing the price down will make it much more ubiquitous, which helps to solve the suburbanite response time problem.

Still a bunch of problems to get through on the economics. 

Quote

The GM Supercruise capability is impressive to me.

They make the smart choice to watch the driver's eyes to make sure the driver is actually still attentive and paying attention, and will alarm you (and eventually disable the vehicle) if you're not. 

Which for L2 level autonomy seems like a pretty critical feature. I can't imagine why the most well-known self-drive feature hasn't done that...

Quote

I could see a purpose designed odd looking self driving vehicle that would be great in cities and replace a lot of rapid transit.  We're supposed to build more light rail around here but I wonder if it will really happen, it seems to be a ways off.

Yeah, the problem with things like rail is that it's great if goes from exactly where you are to exactly where you're going. But if you need transit to/from the start point and to/from the end point, basically you've turned one trip into 3. That's fine in some cases; but doesn't really replace the automobile. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 07:19:22 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 13, 2020, 06:20:03 PM

I think self-driving cars are a little farther away than most people think, and the business model that will cause wholesale adoption of car service vs car ownership will take some transition.

My guess is that the earliest we see that is somewhere between 2025-2030. Tesla is making good progress in L2/L3 autonomy, but the jump to L5 autonomy is not trivial.

I really hope not.

I test drove a Tesla last year and they told me they are 100% ready to go.  As in TODAY.  It's a simple matter of remotely updating the software.  Unfortunately, we have to wait for government deregulation.

They say their self driving vehicles are twice as safe as human drivers. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 07:23:27 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 06:33:13 PM

As I understand it, geothermal has great potential for volcanic islands like Hawaii, but it's just not cost-competitive in most situations.

I would also like to see a lot of existing dams that don't produce electricity retrofitted to do so. I still don't quite understand the holdup with that.

As for autonomous vehicles, I've been frustrated by the lack of progress on that front. From what I've heard, the technology is pretty much there and regulations are the main holdup. Once that is widely available it will definitely reduce the number of vehicles being used (and make car ownership obsolete for people in/near cities).... Hopefully Europe will be able adopt them sooner to prove their viability....

No active volcanoes here.  At least I hope not.  :)

CD is right.  They drill deep enough to pull ambient temperatures from the earth, rather than trying to cool or heat outside temps.  I'm fairly certain it can be done anywhere.  Costs may vary, I suppose.

Granted, I'm speaking residential.  You might be talking industrial, which I know next to nothing about.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 13, 2020, 08:02:24 PM

My understanding is that autonomous cars are more a matter of regulation than technology now. One problem, though, is that they will have to be much safer than human drivers to win that regulatory approval. We can tolerate human fallibility, but we can't tolerate a programmable machine that hasn't taken account of known safety issues. At this point, any safety problem with cars will be assumed known, so when an autonomous vehicle fails in a given situation, the public will go nuts. Pushing this hysteria will be all of the industries that depend on people as drivers for economic gain (and there are a lot of them).

I don't think we're close to capable of making the risk/benefit decision: these cars are 75% safer than human drivers, so we will overlook the failure to deal with these rare, but known situations, or these rare, but known flaws with the detection systems. In real terms, we won't trade 40,000 deaths per year at human hands for 10,000 deaths per year at machines' programming if that programming results in 10,000 deaths that a good human driver would have avoided.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 13, 2020, 11:15:51 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 10:08:56 AM

What was misleading about it?  Temperatures have been rising dramatically after being pretty consistent for hundreds of years.

It has been spot on.

The "Roman warming period" looks like a cooling period.

Was that another Northern Hemisphere-only phenomenon?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 07:46:06 AM

Does anyone have a plan?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:06:14 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 06:33:13 PM

As I understand it, geothermal has great potential for volcanic islands like Hawaii, but it's just not cost-competitive in most situations.

I would also like to see a lot of existing dams that don't produce electricity retrofitted to do so. I still don't quite understand the holdup with that.

This isn't what geothermal means.  And there are technical reasons why it doesn't really work in Hawaii despite years of effort.

Dams not fitted with hydro simply are too small to generate enough power for it to pay off.  And, many dams are subject to being taken out for environmental reasons.

Hydro is going to go backwards.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:15:53 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 07:46:06 AM

Does anyone have a plan?

My partial and incomplete plan would be to replace coal fired generating plants as quickly as possible .... with something.  But if EVs really take hold and we need more generating capacity, that might be tougher than otherwise. Maybe wind and solar double by 2030, but that wouldn't keep up with growth in demand.  

What fills the gap here?  And how much does it cost?  We'd be taking functioning coal plants off line before their time.  And, something has to replace it AND provide more capacity even if EVs are largely charged at night.  Southern states can handle this or get close because they have extra capacity for AC demand in the day.

But at night when they normally shut down NG turbines, they'd have to keep them running.

This is why nobody can come forth with an actual plan, even doing a relatively small thing is very very challenging, and expensive.  I'm all for getting rid of coal, but we HAVE to replace it with something other than Fairy Dust.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 09:23:13 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 07:46:06 AM

Does anyone have a plan?

I do think a carbon tax should factor in.

My previous discussion (replacing the regressive payroll tax with a regressive revenue neutral carbon tax) apparently doesn't quite add up math-wise. It's too much revenue to replace so the carbon tax would probably be too high. 

Money talks, and BS (most of our politicians) walks. Make carbon more expensive, and you'll see it more likely that companies and individuals try to avoid it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 09:30:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:06:14 AM

This isn't what geothermal means.  And there are technical reasons why it doesn't really work in Hawaii despite years of effort.

Dams not fitted with hydro simply are too small to generate enough power for it to pay off.  And, many dams are subject to being taken out for environmental reasons.

Hydro is going to go backwards.

Correct, especially on that bolded part.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 09:37:40 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 13, 2020, 11:15:51 PM

The "Roman warming period" looks like a cooling period.

Was that another Northern Hemisphere-only phenomenon?

let’s talk about medieval warm period first, because that was more substantial. 

We have limited data from that time. Note the grey area in the chart I posted. That’s uncertainty.  We made our best guess with what we know. 

1.  Note that the difference between the little ice age and the medieval warming period is tiny. Probably about 0.1 degrees C, but even using the extremes of uncertainty, it is 1 degree.  It is also possible that the medieval warm period was colder than the little ice age. 
2.  Uncertainty now is much smaller. Note how the grey area nearly disappears in modern times. 
3.  How do temperatures today compare to the little ice age and the medieval warm period?  We are probably about 1 degree higher, but possibly 2 degrees higher or as low as 0.6 degrees higher. 

either way we are undeniably and substantially warmer. 


In regards to the Roman warm period - it is the start of that same graph. Yes, temperatures today exceed this period by about one degree.  Further research has shown this period, along with the little ice age and the medieval warm period were likely regional, and not global. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:39:41 AM

Making carbon more expensive would "work" depending on how expensive you make it.  It's very cheap at the moment.  And of course, higher priced fuel hurts the working poor more than the middle class and wealthy, as usual.

And, it won't really make enough difference anyway, as we have seen unless it is draconian.  My idea was to add a nickel a gallon gas tax every January and use the revenue for infrastructure.  That could be OK, but it won't change the current trajectory in any measurable sense of CO2 reduction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:40:33 AM

It is interesting to note how difficult it is to measure "mean global temperature" ... but if we take this chart as correct (measured over land, ignoring 70% of the surface which is water):

(https://i.imgur.com/k4Iil73.png)

... we have already warmed about 1°C since 1900.  One can detect a pause of sorts around 1950 and then a steady increase since about 1970 or so.

So, if the "need" is to limit the increase (anomaly) to 2°C or less, well, we're already in a deep hole.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:46:26 AM

So, the US could adopt some kind of carbon tax, push more wind and solar, phase out coal, subsidize/encourage EVs, and we're still not only short of any goal by 2030, we're not really making a dent in the global climate picture.  At best, we're compensating for China and India, and the global CO2 output would AT BEST level off.

I doubt it would level off, but that's my Polly Anna concept here.  Level off.  Not nearly good enough.  And every year that passes without significant cuts makes it all much worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 09:59:44 AM

I have seen other charts show a cooling period in the 1960s and '70s.  There was some alarm about an impending ice age.

[img width=342.983 height=500]https://aaronjhill.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/screenhunter_1038-feb-11-18-32.gif[/img]
Nov 1969


(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-CeLKsHMYE_g%2FTmIoV5ddeZI%2FAAAAAAAAANM%2FGoABkh3B3qg%2Fs400%2Ftime_cooling_america.jpg&hash=8c8cf8fcad7fb218967ad054859d6c8f)
24 Jun 1974

[img width=378.977 height=500]https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/time-1977-bigfreeze.jpg?w=720[/img]
31 Jan 1977

(https://morningmail.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/time-magazine-april-1977.jpg)
Apr 1977.  I like this one.  "Why We Can't Beat the Soviets."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 10:10:01 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 07:46:06 AM

Does anyone have a plan?

I have a plan-- I'm taking the boat out this weekend to enjoy the weather, climate, and environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 10:27:12 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 09:59:44 AM

I have seen other charts show a cooling period in the 1960s and '70s.  There was some alarm about an impending ice age.

[img width=342.983 height=500]https://aaronjhill.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/screenhunter_1038-feb-11-18-32.gif[/img]
Nov 1969


(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-CeLKsHMYE_g%2FTmIoV5ddeZI%2FAAAAAAAAANM%2FGoABkh3B3qg%2Fs400%2Ftime_cooling_america.jpg&hash=8c8cf8fcad7fb218967ad054859d6c8f)
24 Jun 1974

[img width=378.983 height=500]https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/time-1977-bigfreeze.jpg?w=720[/img]
31 Jan 1977

(https://morningmail.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/time-magazine-april-1977.jpg)
Apr 1977.  I like this one.  "Why We Can't Beat the Soviets."

Did you read these articles?

These addressed a valid concern at the time.  Global dimming due to pollution.  They would still be relevant today, but we have curbed air pollution dramatically.

Here's the crazy thing.  We still have a fair amount of global dimming, and our temperatures continue to rise.

People have actually postulated that we should dirty our air again in order to fight global warming.  Yikes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 10:46:51 AM

Here is a brief summary of what I think:

1.  CO2 levels are rising rather steeply - this is known.
2.  The CO2 is nearly all manmade - this is known (from isotope studies).  We can take 1 and 2 as facts.
3.  The mean global temperature has been rising faster than can be expected from any known natural phenomenon.  I'd take this as 90+% true.
4.  There are models that variously show our climate should get considerably warmer in the future if nothing is done , this is a statement of fact.
5.  "We" collectively show little real sign of interrupting this CO2 trend soon enough to prevent significant warming, if the models are correct.  I'd take this as 90+% true also.  Some here disagree, but they seem not to have much of a factual basis for it.
6.  Warming of 3°C or more would be bad in many ways, perhaps good in some ways.  Sea level rise would be a problem.  Adverse impact to oceanic systems likely will be bad.  Our oceans provide the primary carbon sink, not forests.  CO2 is less soluble in warmer water than cooler.
7.  I hope the models are too extreme in their predictions.  I don't know if they are, but climate, in my view, is extremely complex and the models could well be over simplifying various feedbacks, for better or worse.

Now, if someone thinks wind and solar and fusion and batteries and EVs can really alter Item 5 above, OK with me, I clearly do not.  The simple math to me looks inexorable and I view all these accords and promises and targets as being political BS and spin.

Show me .... the money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 12:20:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 10:46:51 AM

Here is a brief summary of what I think:

1.  CO2 levels are rising rather steeply - this is known.
2.  The CO2 is nearly all manmade - this is known (from isotope studies).  We can take 1 and 2 as facts.
3.  The mean global temperature has been rising faster than can be expected from any known natural phenomenon.  I'd take this as 90+% true.
4.  There are models that variously show our climate should get considerably warmer in the future if nothing is done , this is a statement of fact.
5.  "We" collectively show little real sign of interrupting this CO2 trend soon enough to prevent significant warming, if the models are correct.  I'd take this as 90+% true also.  Some here disagree, but they seem not to have much of a factual basis for it.
6.  Warming of 3°C or more would be bad in many ways, perhaps good in some ways.  Sea level rise would be a problem.  Adverse impact to oceanic systems likely will be bad.  Our oceans provide the primary carbon sink, not forests.  CO2 is less soluble in warmer water than cooler.
7.  I hope the models are too extreme in their predictions.  I don't know if they are, but climate, in my view, is extremely complex and the models could well be over simplifying various feedbacks, for better or worse.

Now, if someone thinks wind and solar and fusion and batteries and EVs can really alter Item 5 above, OK with me, I clearly do not.  The simple math to me looks inexorable and I view all these accords and promises and targets as being political BS and spin.

Show me .... the money.

3.  I believe the IPCC has it at a greater than 95% chance at this point.  But it is more than that.  The IPCC actually states, with a 95% confidence level, that humans are responsible for ALL of the global warming in at least the last 60 years.  As far as science is concerned, that's about as rock solid as it gets.  That's because we have eliminated any other cause we can think of.  There is an extremely slim possibility that there is something out there that science has not discovered.  

6.  Absolute worst case scenario?  Wide spread flooding, famine, civil and social unrest.  Probably pretty slim it gets that bad at 3 degrees though.  However, if there was a 1% chance of this happening, that is pretty darn scary.  People buy fire insurance on the 1% chance their house burns down.

7.  Models have uncertainty built in.  Where will we be in 50 years?  That depends on our inputs.  Do we curb CO2 emissions?  Increase them?  Even if we guess at our inputs, uncertainty will still remain.  This is not really a problem, because we aren't trying to be perfect. It is worth saying that models have consistently underestimated global warming, as scientists tend to hedge on the side of caution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on May 14, 2020, 12:32:27 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 09:23:13 AM

I do think a carbon tax should factor in.

My previous discussion (replacing the regressive payroll tax with a regressive revenue neutral carbon tax) apparently doesn't quite add up math-wise. It's too much revenue to replace so the carbon tax would probably be too high.

Money talks, and BS (most of our politicians) walks. Make carbon more expensive, and you'll see it more likely that companies and individuals try to avoid it.

For a person who claims to be a libertarian, you seem to like taxes and government control of things.

 (https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Vo4bZaSZ&id=0D7B7703C4386F6952D8A71D2E555CE4035898AE&thid=OIP.Vo4bZaSZOWRPJTP3lvl7hwHaHa&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwp.production.patheos.com%2fblogs%2ffaithonthecouch%2ffiles%2f2015%2f11%2finigo.jpeg&exph=625&expw=625&q=that+word+doesn't+mean+what+you+think+meme&simid=608000625312139502&selectedIndex=0)(https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.Vo4bZaSZOWRPJTP3lvl7hwHaHa?w=220&h=213&c=7&o=5&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7)

Posted with a smile on my face not a scowl. 
 (https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Vo4bZaSZ&id=0D7B7703C4386F6952D8A71D2E555CE4035898AE&thid=OIP.Vo4bZaSZOWRPJTP3lvl7hwHaHa&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwp.production.patheos.com%2fblogs%2ffaithonthecouch%2ffiles%2f2015%2f11%2finigo.jpeg&exph=625&expw=625&q=that+word+doesn't+mean+what+you+think+meme&simid=608000625312139502&selectedIndex=0)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:38:38 PM

Sea level rise would be a problem.

Why?

I mean it's not going to rise 100' or some crazy amount or rise quickly enough to drown folks like a tidal wave?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 01:01:03 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:38:38 PM

Sea level rise would be a problem.

Why?

I mean it's not going to rise 100' or some crazy amount or rise quickly enough to drown folks like a tidal wave?

If all land ice melted, sea levels would rise 70 METERS.  Yes, 100’ is quite possible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 01:15:05 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 01:01:03 PM

If all land ice melted, sea levels would rise 70 METERS.  Yes, 100’ is quite possible.

I should mention the IPCC projects sea levels to rise between 1-4 feet by 2100.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 01:28:18 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 01:15:05 PM

I should mention the IPCC projects sea levels to rise between 1-4 feet by 2100.  :)

+/- 3'.

Hmm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 01:52:35 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 01:28:18 PM

+/- 3'.

Hmm.

According to the IPCC, it depends on how much we warm the earth.  Technically a rise of 8 feet is possible, but that would assume a very high CO2 emission scenario.  Doomsday scenario would be a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which would add an additional 16 ft of sea level increase.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 02:21:54 PM

If everyone agreed this is a HUGE looming problem, I'm not what we'd do differently that would make a measurable difference in the outcome.

Nuclear is off the table.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 02:22:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 02:21:54 PM

If everyone agreed this is a HUGE looming problem, I'm not what we'd do differently that would make a measurable difference in the outcome.

Nuclear is off the table.

For use against China, or for power generation?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 02:22:56 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on May 14, 2020, 12:32:27 PM

For a person who claims to be a libertarian, you seem to like taxes and government control of things.

 (https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Vo4bZaSZ&id=0D7B7703C4386F6952D8A71D2E555CE4035898AE&thid=OIP.Vo4bZaSZOWRPJTP3lvl7hwHaHa&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwp.production.patheos.com%2fblogs%2ffaithonthecouch%2ffiles%2f2015%2f11%2finigo.jpeg&exph=625&expw=625&q=that+word+doesn't+mean+what+you+think+meme&simid=608000625312139502&selectedIndex=0)(https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.Vo4bZaSZOWRPJTP3lvl7hwHaHa?w=220&h=213&c=7&o=5&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7)

Posted with a smile on my face not a scowl.
 (https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Vo4bZaSZ&id=0D7B7703C4386F6952D8A71D2E555CE4035898AE&thid=OIP.Vo4bZaSZOWRPJTP3lvl7hwHaHa&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwp.production.patheos.com%2fblogs%2ffaithonthecouch%2ffiles%2f2015%2f11%2finigo.jpeg&exph=625&expw=625&q=that+word+doesn't+mean+what+you+think+meme&simid=608000625312139502&selectedIndex=0)

I'm a libertarian not because I believe that there aren't policies that could improve things for everyone...

...but because I don't trust government to come up with those policies.

They'd probably end up with an easily-corruptible cap and trade scheme that would allow them to play political favorites in the economy by how they allocate the caps and increase their power... All while finding a way to make the caps high enough that they don't solve the problem. 

Also note that my initial thought was replacing the payroll tax with a carbon tax, targeting revenue neutrality. The beauty is that it replaces a regressive tax with a regressive tax, so it would be easier to sell politically than replacing, say, the capital gains tax with a carbon tax. But I don't like the idea of creating a carbon tax for ADDITIONAL government revenue. 

That idea didn't work out, because it would need to be too big. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 10:53:38 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 14, 2020, 10:27:12 AM

Did you read these articles?

These addressed a valid concern at the time.  Global dimming due to pollution.  They would still be relevant today, but we have curbed air pollution dramatically.

Here's the crazy thing.  We still have a fair amount of global dimming, and our temperatures continue to rise.

People have actually postulated that we should dirty our air again in order to fight global warming.  Yikes.

No, but I read some of those articles at the time they were published.  I remember the issue of "dimming," but I don't remember it being called that.
It raises an issue--is anyone working on a way of putting non-polluting but solar energy-blocking materials into the upper atmosphere?  And if there were, could we guarantee that it would block incoming high-frequency radiation but allow outgoing low-frequency radiation to escape?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 14, 2020, 10:55:58 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 10:53:38 PM

No, but I read some of those articles at the time they were published.  I remember the issue of "dimming," but I don't remember it being called that.
It raises an issue--is anyone working on a way of putting non-polluting but solar energy-blocking materials into the upper atmosphere?  And if there were, could we guarantee that it would block incoming high-frequency radiation but allow outgoing low-frequency radiation to escape?

There is a lot of research into geo-engineering right now, and that's certainly one consideration. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but it's definitely a possibility, but more research needs to be done....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 07:41:21 AM

Some of the geoengineering proposals include injection of aerosols into the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight, "salting" the oceans with iron to encourage growth of zooplankta, use of large very thin sheets in space to reflect sunlight, growing and burying lots and lots and lots of trees ...

One would think geothermal of the hot rocks type would work in Hawaii where electricity is very expensive and hot rocks are at the surface.  Indeed, there is a Federal geothermal research facility there and has been for decades.  It has a small array of PV cells outside.  I think it's more a demonstration thing than real, but whatever, they have major issues with hot rock geothermal in Hawaii.  That is the state where this and wind and solar make the most sense because the alternative electricity source is burning imported petroleum.  Winds are almost constant and reliable.

Wind and solar are growing in importance in the state.  They still burn oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 15, 2020, 08:08:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 02:22:51 PM

For use against China, or for power generation?

Hey now,if you're gonna let the missiles fly strap some corrupt corporate,congressmen and lobbyists to them.Along with some mediots,that'd be a win-win

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 08:52:46 AM

The 2015 vision for wind calls for 10% generation by wind by 2020 (113 GW), 30% by 2030 (224 GW), and 35% by 2050 (404 GW). ... Larger wind turbines has expanded the commercial viability of wind to all 50 states. Analysts expect 25 GW more between 2016-18.

I copied the above from a 5 year old wiki page.  We're supposed to be at 10% NOW and 30% by 2030.  Maybe these predictions are "visions" and not likely to happen in the real world.

The basic shift to this point has been replacing coal with NG.  At what point will NG start to decline and be replaced by wind and solar?  Will that occur fast enough to have any consequential reduction in US CO2 generation?

Anyone have any numbers and projections?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 09:36:53 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 10:53:38 PM

No, but I read some of those articles at the time they were published.  I remember the issue of "dimming," but I don't remember it being called that.
It raises an issue--is anyone working on a way of putting non-polluting but solar energy-blocking materials into the upper atmosphere?  And if there were, could we guarantee that it would block incoming high-frequency radiation but allow outgoing low-frequency radiation to escape?

I don’t think blocking the sun is the right call.  

I do remember reading an article once on mandated white roofs. Apparently if everyone switched to a white roof it would reflect a not-insignificant potion of light that would otherwise be absorbed as heat.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 09:38:50 AM

mandated white roofs

there's a place for the government to get involved and waste large piles of $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 09:56:10 AM

LA tried painting a street white.  It was an absurd idea of course and ended quickly.

A lot of the heat retention of course happens at night.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 10:18:22 AM

So, let's imagine that by 2030, electrical demand in the US stays flat.  That isn't a ridiculous assumption I think.

Wind and solar double by then, which would mean a 7.8% increase each year.  That seems also not to be ridiculous, stretching a bit perhaps.

So, W&S now add up to 18% of demand (roughly).  Nuclear stays at 20%.  Hydro etc. stay around 8%.  Coal, now around 20% goes to zero.

The 9% increase in W&S offsets almost half the coal losses.  What makes up for the missing power?

Is it realistic to expect W&S to TRIPLE by 2030?  Or are we going to be stuck with coal still for around 10%?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 11:02:04 AM

natural gas?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 15, 2020, 11:50:23 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 11:02:04 AM

natural gas?

Eat your beans at every meal?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 15, 2020, 12:58:25 PM

If you need more proof that most planned / under construction generation is wind and solar, here you go. You can see it in the links below, which are the interconnection queues of various ISO/RTOs throughout the country, which cover most of the country except the Southeast, MT/PT outside of California, Alaska, and Hawaii.

Here's Texas (ERCOT) http://mis.ercot.com/misapp/GetReports.do?reportTypeId=15933&reportTitle=GIS%20Report&showHTMLView=&mimicKey (http://mis.ercot.com/misapp/GetReports.do?reportTypeId=15933&reportTitle=GIS)
Here's the Great Plains (SPP) http://opsportal.spp.org/Studies/GIActive (http://opsportal.spp.org/Studies/GIActive)
MISO has an interactive map: https://api.misoenergy.org/PublicGiQueueMap/index.html (https://api.misoenergy.org/PublicGiQueueMap/index.html)
NY's is in a somewhat confusing spreadsheet contained within this link https://www.nyiso.com/interconnections (https://www.nyiso.com/interconnections)
Here's New England (ISONE) https://irtt.iso-ne.com/reports/external (https://irtt.iso-ne.com/reports/external)

For the Mid-Atlantic & OH & Northern Illinois (PJM) you have to filter out by status the projects that aren't happening or are already done: https://www.pjm.com/planning/services-requests/interconnection-queues.aspx (https://www.pjm.com/planning/services-requests/interconnection-queues.aspx)

California (CAISO) doesn't seem to have their's publicly available without access to their system for some reason, but of course they have more wind and solar than most states and are starting to phase out gas now.

As for the states outside of these markets, utilities have to publish integrated resource plans (IRPs) that show their future plans and projects, including which generators they plan to build and retire. They're somewhat hard to read, but usually they get reported on to summarize what's in them. Here is the summary of NVE's for example:
https://www.nvenergy.com/publish/content/dam/nvenergy/brochures_arch/about-nvenergy/rates-regulatory/recent-regulatory-filings/nve/irp/NVE-18-06003-IRP-VOL4.pdf (https://www.nvenergy.com/publish/content/dam/nvenergy/brochures_arch/about-nvenergy/rates-regulatory/recent-regulatory-filings/nve/irp/NVE-18-06003-IRP-VOL4.pdf)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 01:03:44 PM

I don't think anyone here is looking for such proof, nor is anyone denying it.

I'm trying to visualize a possible energy mix in 2030 in the US, a probable energy mix, and what would be different if government does a lot versus a little.

I provided one vision of a possible energy mix by 2030.  Is there another one somewhere?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 01:16:19 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 09:38:50 AM

mandated white roofs

there's a place for the government to get involved and waste large piles of $$$

Yeah, I didn't say it was a good idea.  I imagine it would be impossible to implement, and the reward wouldn't be worth it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 01:17:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 09:56:10 AM

LA tried painting a street white.  It was an absurd idea of course and ended quickly.

A lot of the heat retention of course happens at night.

But..why??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on May 15, 2020, 01:19:31 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 01:16:19 PM

Yeah, I didn't say it was a good idea.  I imagine it would be impossible to implement, and the reward wouldn't be worth it.

 i think this would be more probable in heavy or light industry.   It would come down to paint.   Residential would be much tougher.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on May 15, 2020, 01:20:05 PM

paint on streets is bad idea when mixed with rain.  Roads are very slick when painted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 01:22:54 PM

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/los-angeles-is-painting-some-of-its-streets-white-and-the-reasons-why-are-pretty-cool/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/los-angeles-is-painting-some-of-its-streets-white-and-the-reasons-why-are-pretty-cool/)

$40,000 per mile.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 01:23:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 10:18:22 AM

So, let's imagine that by 2030, electrical demand in the US stays flat.  That isn't a ridiculous assumption I think.

Wind and solar double by then, which would mean a 7.8% increase each year.  That seems also not to be ridiculous, stretching a bit perhaps.

So, W&S now add up to 18% of demand (roughly).  Nuclear stays at 20%.  Hydro etc. stay around 8%.  Coal, now around 20% goes to zero.

The 9% increase in W&S offsets almost half the coal losses.  What makes up for the missing power?

Is it realistic to expect W&S to TRIPLE by 2030?  Or are we going to be stuck with coal still for around 10%?

Two questions.

I doubt coal sticks around.  It is more expensive, harder to transport, less efficient, and doesn't burn nearly as clean as NG.  Worst case scenario, I think NG replaces coal.

Second question.  Solar will probably continue to grow faster than wind.  Both will continue to grow, probably faster than you've listed, IMO.  If the problem of energy storage can be solved, than W&S will start to eat into natural gas very quickly.  If.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 01:26:17 PM

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/renewables-growth-must-increase-fourfold-by-2030-to-meet-climate-targets/2-1-736294 (https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/renewables-growth-must-increase-fourfold-by-2030-to-meet-climate-targets/2-1-736294)

The share of renewables in the global energy system needs to more than double by the end of the 2020s ­— with $10trn of fossil-fuel investment redirected — if the world is to limit climate change to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena).

Renewable energy should supply 57% of global power by 2030, up from 26% today, requiring a fourfold increase in the speed of renewables growth, the agency explained at its annual assembly in Abu Dhabi.

This articles sets a goal, this is global, of quadrupling W&S by 2030.  What would it take for that to happen in reality?  This is global, and likely presumes no increase in demand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 01:28:38 PM

To get coal to near zero IN THE US, by 2030, we would need more NG generation.  That of course is US only where NG is an option.  

It would not help China.  I would by fine with a goal of Coal Zero by 2030.  I think it's doable, barely, but with additional NG to make up the hole.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2020, 01:31:31 PM

We have been doing some projects lately using white-topping. It's essentially a concrete layer over existing asphalt that has failed. We've had some success with it. It isn't cheap, but it seems to be lasting longer than traditional asphalt repaving. 

https://pavementinteractive.org/reference-desk/maintenance-and-rehabilitation/rehabilitation/thin-whitetopping/ (https://pavementinteractive.org/reference-desk/maintenance-and-rehabilitation/rehabilitation/thin-whitetopping/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on May 15, 2020, 01:35:04 PM

asphalt feels like a cheap, short term fix.   No inside knowledge or data, just my perception as a driver.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 01:36:10 PM

using asphalt as a base for concrete might be the best

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 01:39:59 PM

We have some freeways here built in the early 60s with concrete that are still on the original pavement.  There often are sections cut out and redone here and there.  We don't have the salt and severe freeze issue here obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 02:22:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 01:39:59 PM

We have some freeways here built in the early 60s with concrete that are still on the original pavement.  There often are sections cut out and redone here and there.  We don't have the salt and severe freeze issue here obviously.

Same here; I think a lot more of SoCal freeways are concrete than most places.

With the amount of traffic they see, and the interruption caused any time there needs to be roadwork, having something more expensive but more durable makes sense. And since we don't have freeze/thaw to worry about either, it won't be overly susceptible to cracking due to weather. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 02:28:36 PM

https://www.midtownatl.com/_files/docs/midtown-development-activity-051320---c.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1OX9T4hCjFTe6aX4i8gB5feZw1fw6J1Ua7FvCq4Wwuxi8N1l5Nfk4P3uY (https://www.midtownatl.com/_files/docs/midtown-development-activity-051320---c.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1OX9T4hCjFTe6aX4i8gB5feZw1fw6J1Ua7FvCq4Wwuxi8N1l5Nfk4P3uY)

Meanwhile, the pace of development near me is going full bore.  A lot of this is office space which might not be in as much demand in the future as was projected.  Some of this is just starting, just past demo, and might get delayed, not sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 02:32:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 01:22:54 PM

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/los-angeles-is-painting-some-of-its-streets-white-and-the-reasons-why-are-pretty-cool/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/los-angeles-is-painting-some-of-its-streets-white-and-the-reasons-why-are-pretty-cool/)

$40,000 per mile.

obviously the government is involved

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 04:04:52 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 02:32:02 PM

obviously the government is involved

$40K is actually really, really cheap when compared to the cost of the road.  Miles are big.

"Construct a new 2-lane undivided road – about $2 million to $3 million per mile in rural areas, about $3 million to $5 million in urban areas. Construct a new 4-lane highway — $4 million to $6 million per mile in rural and suburban areas, $8 million to $10 million per mile in urban areas"


https://www.artba.org/about/faq/ (https://www.artba.org/about/faq/)

I am generally clueless as to why people think the government automatically does a bad job at things.  I know, it SOUNDS right, but where is the data.  Gotta sell me on the data...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2020, 04:06:39 PM

Painting roads is probably the silliest thing this uncivil engineer ever heard of. 

And I've seen a lot of silly in my 35+ years of practice. Trust me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 04:19:23 PM

$40 K for anything highway is cheap, it's maybe a sign or two. 


I like the notion of lighter colored roofs.  Or Elon's promised solar tiles in lieu of a roof, that hasn't seemed to be a real thing though.

https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/10/cool-pavement-materials-coating-urban-heat-island-research/599221/ (https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/10/cool-pavement-materials-coating-urban-heat-island-research/599221/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 04:24:03 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 04:04:52 PM

I am generally clueless as to why people think the government automatically does a bad job at things.  I know, it SOUNDS right, but where is the data.  Gotta sell me on the data...

I dunno... It reminds me of a product that we used to sell to a distributor, who used to sell it to a defense contractor, who used to sell it to the government.

Because it had very unique design characteristics, we had a huge markup on the product [i.e. the "make it worth our while to even bother with it" premium]. The distributor was marking it up greatly too, without basically doing anything. Who knows what the markup was from the contractor to the gov't?

All I know is that the distributor took several of us out for a ridiculously expensive dinner because they were making so much margin on the deal that they wanted to thank us lol...

(Note: I realize that's an anecdote, and not evidence. I recognize the limitation therein.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 04:31:33 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2020, 04:06:39 PM

Painting roads is probably the silliest thing this uncivil engineer ever heard of.

And I've seen a lot of silly in my 35+ years of practice. Trust me.

When I read the article I kept thinking there must have been another reason.  Maybe the material would also double as a protectant?  But it said nothing about that.

Here's the thing -- yes, white reflects a ton of light back up.  But this is in a city...there's plenty of stuff "up".  Buildings, cars, poles.  I would assume those things would just get hotter...

I suppose, overall, there would be a cooling effect, but I can't imagine it being that substantial...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2020, 04:31:44 PM

"You don't actually think they spend $20,000 on a hammer, $30,000 on a toilet seat, do you?"

That was a good movie.


https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jul/10/senator-demands-answers-pentagons-10k-toilet-seat/ (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jul/10/senator-demands-answers-pentagons-10k-toilet-seat/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2020, 04:32:52 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 04:31:33 PM

When I read the article I kept thinking there must have been another reason.  Maybe the material would also double as a protectant?  But it said nothing about that.

Here's the thing -- yes, white reflects a ton of light back up.  But this is in a city...there's plenty of stuff "up".  Buildings, cars, poles.  I would assume those things would just get hotter...

I suppose, overall, there would be a cooling effect, but I can't imagine it being that substantial...

Paint wears off on a damn garage floor. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 04:39:46 PM

I once was involved with a technology that looked like it might be a good filtration material.  I went to Michigan to a test company to get test data on various version of the stuff.  We were chatting at lunch about using it as a car engine filter.  The guy told me "Don't bother, GM and Ford set specs, and whoever meets the specs at the lowest price gets the job.  Being better is not something of interest.".

The stuff had good test numbers.  Incidentally, filtration is a rather complex science.  We normally think of it as being a size kind of thing - interception they call it - and in general it's not that simple at all.

And of course effective filters tend to clog sooner than poorer ones.

I am reminded of all the hoopla about wearing masks right now.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 15, 2020, 04:24:03 PM

I dunno... It reminds me of a product that we used to sell to a distributor, who used to sell it to a defense contractor, who used to sell it to the government.

Because it had very unique design characteristics, we had a huge markup on the product [i.e. the "make it worth our while to even bother with it" premium]. The distributor was marking it up greatly too, without basically doing anything. Who knows what the markup was from the contractor to the gov't?

All I know is that the distributor took several of us out for a ridiculously expensive dinner because they were making so much margin on the deal that they wanted to thank us lol...

(Note: I realize that's an anecdote, and not evidence. I recognize the limitation therein.)

I could tell you similar stories from the corporate world that would melt your brain.  Anecdotes, of course. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 05:21:10 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 04:40:50 PM

I could tell you similar stories from the corporate world that would melt your brain.  Anecdotes, of course.

If I thought for 30 seconds, I could probably come up with similar stories from the corporate world too ;) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 08:56:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 01:36:10 PM

using asphalt as a base for concrete might be the best

My impressing of asphalt vs. concrete is that asphalt is cheaper and doesn't wear as well, while concrete is smoother but tends to crack worse.  Maybe asphalt under concrete would be a good combination.

Our asphalt roads are generally terrible.  We are right in the zone where it freezes a lot overnight in the winter but it doesn't stay frozen during the day, so we get a heavy dose of freeze-thaw cycles that work to create potholes and cracks.

It would be interesting to see a civil engineer's opinion about this.  We've seemingly got engineers around every corner here--any of them know anything about street and highway construction?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 09:20:50 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 15, 2020, 04:04:52 PM

$40K is actually really, really cheap when compared to the cost of the road.  Miles are big.

"Construct a new 2-lane undivided road – about $2 million to $3 million per mile in rural areas, about $3 million to $5 million in urban areas. Construct a new 4-lane highway — $4 million to $6 million per mile in rural and suburban areas, $8 million to $10 million per mile in urban areas"


https://www.artba.org/about/faq/ (https://www.artba.org/about/faq/)

I am generally clueless as to why people think the government automatically does a bad job at things.  I know, it SOUNDS right, but where is the data.  Gotta sell me on the data...

Because there is no incentive to come in under budget.  All it means for a government program to do that is that the budget for next year gets cut.
Why is the U.S. Postal Service a money pit while Fedex and UPS are profitable?  Why can't Amtrak operate at a profit even while having a near-monopoly on RR passenger travel? And even while selling soft drinks for $5 and reheated grocery-store frozen hamburgers for $10?

Nobody in the world would pay $100 for a hammer or $300 for a toilet seat, but the U.S. Air Force does, or did for a long time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 15, 2020, 09:42:52 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 09:20:50 PM

Nobody in the world would pay $100 for a hammer or $300 for a toilet seat, but the U.S. Air Force does, or did for a long time.

IKE was not in jest"Beware of the the military-industrial complex".Look what corrupt corporate policies have done over charging for bombs,boats,bayonets.To big to fail - tough shit let them fail send a message.Might as well implement that now while were putting the pieces together.Corporate parachutes while the rank and file get pink slips.Also handing out benefits to those who have neither earned or deserve it.Have 10 kids if you want.pay for them yourselves though.The rich and many of the so-called underpriviliged have screwed the once robust middle class.And the last 2 years Trumps tax laws have done me no favors

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2020, 06:48:22 AM

Asphalt base and concrete surface is now the general standard in many jurisdictions. Then you get into maintenance, which would be patching, grinding and then covering the concrete with asphalt, for a longer life. 50 years is the minimum expectation, but I've heard as many as 70 years. The initial paving of the concrete should go at least 20 years before any "real" maintenance is needed.

(this is for Northern climate)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2020, 07:12:08 AM

Yet another engineering disaster, started by engineers who decided to reverse the flow of the Chicago River rather than attack the real problem.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/environment/ct-heavy-rains-sewage-chicago-20200515-4rxpjn7hargw3avja6igpvwgxu-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/environment/ct-heavy-rains-sewage-chicago-20200515-4rxpjn7hargw3avja6igpvwgxu-story.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2020, 09:04:31 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 09:20:50 PM

Why is the U.S. Postal Service a money pit while Fedex and UPS are profitable?  

Partly because the USPS has to maintain an unprofitable letter-carrying business that services the entire country, edge to edge, from the populated urban areas down to the deeply sparse rural areas. 

Oh, and while they used to at least have volume business on that letter-carrying business that might have helped them finance those unprofitable rural routes, now we have email--so they are forced by law to still serve everyone equally while their volume cratered.

Quote

Why can't Amtrak operate at a profit even while having a near-monopoly on RR passenger travel? And even while selling soft drinks for $5 and reheated grocery-store frozen hamburgers for $10?

Because passenger rail is dumb in most of this country. We're too big and our destinations are too spread out. Outside of the DC/NYC/Boston route, nothing is close enough for passenger rail to make sense. Air travel is faster and cheaper. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 09:17:37 AM

Freight RRs were deregulated and got profitable.  Passenger rail was not and ....  

As noted the Acela line in the NE "works" (usually) and is needed.  No other line in the US is needed, at all, for people.  If they were, a private company would provide the service, as is being tried in Florida now between Miami and Orlando.

That isn't working out either of course.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/20200120/brightline-passenger-counts-revenue-remain-well-below-companyrsquos-own-projections (https://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/20200120/brightline-passenger-counts-revenue-remain-well-below-companyrsquos-own-projections)

In a report to bond investors, Brightline, to be renamed VirginTrains USA, said it barely broke one million passengers for the year, less than half the count it projected. Revenue for 2019 was $22 million, less than a fifth of its projection.

Folks point to France.  OK fine, the TGV works reasonably well.  BUT, it was built at government expense, and it operates with a very large subsidy in the billions each year.  They don't have to try and pay off the sunk capital and can't operate at a profit or break even anyway.

You also have to drag your luggage up steps, and at every stop the wife walks to where our luggage is to ensure no one walks off with it.

The train thing just makes no sense to me, at all, except for specific areas like the NE where cities have mass transit options at the RR station.

Take a train from Atlanta to say New Orleans, why?  It's slow, it's expensive, and when you arrive you need a car.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 09:26:41 AM

the government has very little motivation

the folks get paid the same whether they are efficient or profitable or not

sometimes they are paid less if efficient

greed has it's problems, but it is a great motivator 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 09:30:31 AM

I found it to be very similar working for a large company.  There was no incentive, realistically, to do more than get by.  My last 12 years involved a job that needed about 1 hour work a week, if that, and they replaced me with TWO people at the same level.

Even before that, it was a very cushy job, more meetings and some people to manage, but that didn't take much time either.  I actually would write reports no one cared about on our work to try and keep busy.  That helped out some as any time someone would ask me a question about the work I could hand them a report and tell them to read it and come back with questions.

I think I had one person EVER actually read the report.  He was a good guy.

In a large organization, it's pretty easy to "get lost" and still get paid, in my experience.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 09:56:24 AM

my experience working for IBP, the nations largest producer of beef and pork was very different

daily pressure from the board room to the janitor  to be efficient and produce.  Salaried positions pushed to work almost every Saturday, many Sundays, and holidays.  Sometimes 60-70 hours a week.

was a real grinder, many folks burnt out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 10:24:23 AM

I think it varies even within the company for which I worked.  Areas like production and marketing seemed to be busy.  R&D, it just wasn't, most of it was meetings.  I'm told nearly every lab in the company is now gone, they might have 5 left, we used to have hundreds.  Everyone now pushes paper and has meetings instead of doing lab work.  There are still some pilot lines for this and that.

A friend sent a photo of the remains of the building I was in for a few years, whooshed.  I think they are about to abandon that entire site, it once had 7-8 large buildings on the campus all for R&D.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 11:06:48 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 15, 2020, 09:42:52 PM

IKE was not in jest"Beware of the the military-industrial complex".Look what corrupt corporate policies have done over charging for bombs,boats,bayonets.To big to fail - tough shit let them fail send a message.Might as well implement that now while were putting the pieces together.Corporate parachutes while the rank and file get pink slips.Also handing out benefits to those who have neither earned or deserve it.Have 10 kids if you want.pay for them yourselves though.The rich and many of the so-called underpriviliged have screwed the once robust middle class.And the last 2 years Trumps tax laws have done me no favors

The problem goes way beyond military purchases.  Note all the things I mentioned before the toilet seats and hammers.
The problem with a government bureaucracy even more than a business bureaucracy is that there is less accountability.  A business at least has some incentive to control its costs, while a government agency has little or none.
Was there any effort made to find the person who contracted for those toilet seats and hammers?  Probably not, any more than there is anyone held accountable for the billions of federal dollars that just disappear every year.  Hey, it's government work!  A billion dollars is just a rounding error!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 16, 2020, 11:19:47 AM

Depending on how you count them, I've had around 8 different jobs in my career, and I was almost always underutilized and often had more downtime than work to do, which of course also made me expendable, of course. Part of the problem is that not many people necessarily understood my role as an analyst, anyway. I suppose the ironic part is that in some of my jobs, my responsibilities included making systems and processes more efficient, if not automated. I would think the aftermath of this pandemic will help companies realize how much more efficient and productive they can be, though. Over the past year I've finally been meeting the right entrepreneurs to work with to be done with the corporate world, and the clean energy space should rebound faster than many others.

As for Amtrak, a major problem they have is that freight lines own and have priority on a lot of the tracks. For better or worse, self-driving vehicles will probably effectively replace most trains once they're widely deployed. I still like the idea of the hyperloop, too, but I just don't think it will be cost-effective.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 01:44:55 PM

A topic that comes up every so often here is a "Brain Train" from ATL to Athens.  That would get a lot of use on certain fall Saturdays at least.

There is another proposal from here to Charlotte.  I don't think that is realistic at all.  It's an easy drive.  These would be 79 mph trains, not TGVs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 04:33:29 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 09:20:50 PM

Because there is no incentive to come in under budget.  All it means for a government program to do that is that the budget for next year gets cut.
Why is the U.S. Postal Service a money pit while Fedex and UPS are profitable?  Why can't Amtrak operate at a profit even while having a near-monopoly on RR passenger travel? And even while selling soft drinks for $5 and reheated grocery-store frozen hamburgers for $10?

Nobody in the world would pay $100 for a hammer or $300 for a toilet seat, but the U.S. Air Force does, or did for a long time.

Let me tell you a story.  Sit back and enjoy yourself, I will try and keep the politics to a minimum.  The year is 2006, and the USPS is efficient and adapting to a changing world.  Both the Senate and House have procured republican majorities with the rise of the tea party.  It is self funded and efficient, despite the fact that email was becoming more and more mainstream every day.  It was held high in regards by much of the public and often listed as the perfect success story for a government run program.  USPS employees were well compensated and had full benefits, including a very nice pension plan.  Sure, it wasn't perfect, but by and large they had done an admirable job for 231 years.

FedEx, UPS, and other companies had joined the package distribution industry over the years, and yet the USPS was continuing to be successful.  This didn't sit will with the ideologues of the republican party.  Something must be wrong.  Why was the USPS thriving, despite the introduction of competitive private companies? 

The answer was simple.  USPS did not prefund their employee pensions.  They paid pensions based upon the money they made in their day to day operations.  Private companies, on the other hand, have to pay their pension fund up front.  This is because a company may not exist in the future, so paying a pension out of future earnings is in no way guaranteed.  (See Bethlehem Steel, for example)

Deeming this an unfair advantage, the republican congress passed a new law ordering the USPS to prefund their pensions.  As USPS employees were government workers, this presented a fairly large financial risk to the US Government.  With email gaining in popularity, the possibility of private package transport taking USPS market share, and internet ordering its infancy, there was justified concern.  If the USPS folded, the government could be on the hook to pay pensions totaling in the billions.  The republican legislature took aim to protect themselves from this eventuality.  Not unreasonable. 

Here's where things take a crazy political turn.

The republican legislature does not act in a way to make the USPS pension fun comparable to private plans.  It does not act in a way to protect the government from potential future unfunded pensions.  The measures required by congress direct the USPS to prefund all pension costs for the next 75 years, and it requires them to do so in just 10 years.  Furthermore, they direct the USPS to prefund all of their future medical expenses in the same period.  Without going into details, the USPS is forced to fund future medical and pension cost at a level far exceeding the requirements put upon private employers that offer pensions. 

This was a massive change for an organization that had been doing business for 231+ years, and there was no way to raise that kind of funding in just 10 years.  So, the USPS set upon a goal to fully fund these requirements in 50 years (2056).  However, on the books, they will carry over hefty losses until the fund is fully paid for.

I'll take a break from the politics free stuff for a bit.  I absolutely believe that the republican congress went too far.  Certainly the motivation was there to prove that even a well-running government organization was bad, and to force the USPS to raise prices, making private companies more affordable.  Many of those same congressmen had received generous donations from FedEx and UPS as well.  Most importantly, people can now point to the USPS as a failure.

Back to politics free.  A few other random things to note:

FedEx and UPS do not service rural customers, as it is not profitable for them.  They contract USPS to do so.  USPS bears the burden of unprofitable, rural areas.  FedEx and UPS are nowhere near ready to replace the USPS.

The employees of the USPS are better paid, and have better benefits than their private counterparts.  This actually puts them at a competitive disadvantage, and yet their pricing is usually better than the private carriers.

The USPS was not designed to be profitable.  It was designed to deliver mail across America. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 04:43:39 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 09:20:50 PM

Because there is no incentive to come in under budget.  All it means for a government program to do that is that the budget for next year gets cut.
Why is the U.S. Postal Service a money pit while Fedex and UPS are profitable?  Why can't Amtrak operate at a profit even while having a near-monopoly on RR passenger travel? And even while selling soft drinks for $5 and reheated grocery-store frozen hamburgers for $10?

Nobody in the world would pay $100 for a hammer or $300 for a toilet seat, but the U.S. Air Force does, or did for a long time.

Yes they do.  Certainly you can find corporate costs that are outrageous as well.

A lot of this is taken out of context, too.  For example, a line on multi-million dollar bid may list $300 for a toilet seat, but the overall price is $1M less than the competition.  Or perhaps it was classified wrong and was actually port-o-potty rental and cleaning costs over the term of the contract.

Basically, I don't hold anecdotal evidence in high regard.  Show me the data.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 04:58:53 PM

One story I read long ago about a military hammer is that they didn't want an off the shelf hammer.  They had someone specify a hammer with unique features (that were not relevant to its being a hammer).  So, rather than just selling hammers from stock, the hammer company had to make a new run of specific hammers, AND they had to run the testing to prove the hammers met the military specs.

It turned out in this specific case than the soldiers et al. using these hammers hated them and bought their own.  I forget why now.

I once was involved in getting some materials tested for "explosivity" and the standard test was called the "JANAF test", which stood for Joint Army Navy Air Force.  The company experts told me the tests were mostly useless but they had to run them as part of their protocol.  (I was checking to see if we could ship this stuff legally, in fact, to get the materials to the testing labs I carried them in my brief case on a plane, which was legal, but I couldn't mail them.)  

These guys were formerly NASA engineers who worked on the lunar ascent rocket engine, which used some interesting chemicals.  Their facility still had the concrete rocket test stands on site.  They told me one of my test materials pegged their measuring equipment for the first time in decades.  It was dicey.  Those were the days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 05:14:44 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 04:58:53 PM

One story I read long ago about a military hammer is that they didn't want an off the shelf hammer.  They had someone specify a hammer with unique features (that were not relevant to its being a hammer).  So, rather than just selling hammers from stock, the hammer company had to make a new run of specific hammers, AND they had to run the testing to prove the hammers met the military specs.

It turned out in this specific case than the soldiers et al. using these hammers hated them and bought their own.  I forget why now.

I once was involved in getting some materials tested for "explosivity" and the standard test was called the "JANAF test", which stood for Joint Army Navy Air Force.  The company experts told me the tests were mostly useless but they had to run them as part of their protocol.  (I was checking to see if we could ship this stuff legally, in fact, to get the materials to the testing labs I carried them in my brief case on a plane, which was legal, but I couldn't mail them.) 

These guys were formerly NASA engineers who worked on the lunar ascent rocket engine, which used some interesting chemicals.  Their facility still had the concrete rocket test stands on site.  They told me one of my test materials pegged their measuring equipment for the first time in decades.  It was dicey.  Those were the days.

I have many stories, but this was a recurring story, because it happened ALL THE TIME.

1.  Corporation or City/State/Local/Federal government decides it wants to privatize its workforce.
2.  Corporation or City/State/Local/Federal government mandates wages & benefits because they want to retain their existing guys.
3.  Surprised face when bids come in higher than their existing costs because we are adding...profit.
4.  In order to avoid embarrassment, bid official completely waives wages and benefits restrictions.
5.  Bids are much lower because contractors can now pay bottom of the market wages with little or no benefits.  Agency takes lowest bidder.
6.  Massive savings.  Super win.
7.  Surprised face when contractor takes over and all of the existing guys are replaced with warm bodies that are just barely competent, at best.
8.  Contractor starts to fail.  Agency hires a consultant to find out what is wrong.  Winning contractor is put on probation or fired.  Outside temporary firm hired at double the price replaces failed contractor.  New bid is rushed out the door.
9.  At the recommendation of consultant, bid mandates wages & benefits.
10.  Goto 3

This happened SO. MANY. TIMES. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2020, 06:08:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 04:58:53 PM

One story I read long ago about a military hammer is that they didn't want an off the shelf hammer.  They had someone specify a hammer with unique features (that were not relevant to its being a hammer).  So, rather than just selling hammers from stock, the hammer company had to make a new run of specific hammers, AND they had to run the testing to prove the hammers met the military specs.

Yeah, we had a joke that the defense contractors didn't actually read all the test reports that were generated to prove that you met all their specifications; they just weighed them. If the reports were too light, you clearly didn't run all the tests right :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 06:19:04 PM

And of course, anything you put on an airplane has to undergo a zillion tests.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 08:32:51 PM

In other news, April 2020 was the 2nd hottest on record and we now have a 75% chance that 2020 will be the hottest year on record.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 08:37:15 PM

General Motors signed an agreement for 100 megawatts of solar energy to fully power GM’s manufacturing plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee, starting in late 2022.

The automaker signed a green tariff agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority for as much as 100 MW annually from a solar farm in Lowndes County, Mississippi, being developed by Origis Energy. GM said that the deal was made possible by TVA’s Green Invest program, which supports large-scale renewable energy installations across the utility’s service territory.

TVA presented plans early last year to cut back on coal-fired generation and add more solar capacity over the next 20 years. During a quarterly financial call in February 2020, the federal electric utility reported adding 484 MW of new contracted solar capacity since December, an increase of 44%.

At 2,100 acres, Spring Hill Manufacturing is GM’s largest facility in North America. Currently the plant builds several engines, the GMC Acadia, and the Cadillac XT5 and XT6. The property includes 700 acres set aside for farming and another 100 acres designated as a wildlife habitat recognized by the Wildlife Habitat Council.

Once the Origis Energy solar project being built in Mississippi begins delivering power, it’s expected to push GM’s renewable energy usage in the United States past the 50% mark by 2023, according to the automaker. Nationally, GM aims to source 100% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030 for its owned sites. Globally, the goal is to get to 100% by 2050.

The automaker has been consistently sourcing renewables stateside, including last year’s purchase of wind energy through DTE Energy in Michigan.


https://www.environmentalleader.com/2020/05/gm-solar-tennessee-plant/ (https://www.environmentalleader.com/2020/05/gm-solar-tennessee-plant/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 08:57:45 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 04:33:29 PM

Let me tell you a story.  Sit back and enjoy yourself, I will try and keep the politics to a minimum.  The year is 2006, and the USPS is efficient and adapting to a changing world.  Both the Senate and House have procured republican majorities with the rise of the tea party.  It is self funded and efficient, despite the fact that email was becoming more and more mainstream every day.  It was held high in regards by much of the public and often listed as the perfect success story for a government run program.  USPS employees were well compensated and had full benefits, including a very nice pension plan.  Sure, it wasn't perfect, but by and large they had done an admirable job for 231 years.

FedEx, UPS, and other companies had joined the package distribution industry over the years, and yet the USPS was continuing to be successful.  This didn't sit will with the ideologues of the republican party.  Something must be wrong.  Why was the USPS thriving, despite the introduction of competitive private companies? 

The answer was simple.  USPS did not prefund their employee pensions.  They paid pensions based upon the money they made in their day to day operations.  Private companies, on the other hand, have to pay their pension fund up front.  This is because a company may not exist in the future, so paying a pension out of future earnings is in no way guaranteed.  (See Bethlehem Steel, for example)

Deeming this an unfair advantage, the republican congress passed a new law ordering the USPS to prefund their pensions.  As USPS employees were government workers, this presented a fairly large financial risk to the US Government.  With email gaining in popularity, the possibility of private package transport taking USPS market share, and internet ordering its infancy, there was justified concern.  If the USPS folded, the government could be on the hook to pay pensions totaling in the billions.  The republican legislature took aim to protect themselves from this eventuality.  Not unreasonable. 

Here's where things take a crazy political turn.

The republican legislature does not act in a way to make the USPS pension fun comparable to private plans.  It does not act in a way to protect the government from potential future unfunded pensions.  The measures required by congress direct the USPS to prefund all pension costs for the next 75 years, and it requires them to do so in just 10 years.  Furthermore, they direct the USPS to prefund all of their future medical expenses in the same period.  Without going into details, the USPS is forced to fund future medical and pension cost at a level far exceeding the requirements put upon private employers that offer pensions. 

This was a massive change for an organization that had been doing business for 231+ years, and there was no way to raise that kind of funding in just 10 years.  So, the USPS set upon a goal to fully fund these requirements in 50 years (2056).  However, on the books, they will carry over hefty losses until the fund is fully paid for.

I'll take a break from the politics free stuff for a bit.  I absolutely believe that the republican congress went too far.  Certainly the motivation was there to prove that even a well-running government organization was bad, and to force the USPS to raise prices, making private companies more affordable.  Many of those same congressmen had received generous donations from FedEx and UPS as well.  Most importantly, people can now point to the USPS as a failure.

Back to politics free.  A few other random things to note:

FedEx and UPS do not service rural customers, as it is not profitable for them.  They contract USPS to do so.  USPS bears the burden of unprofitable, rural areas.  FedEx and UPS are nowhere near ready to replace the USPS.

The employees of the USPS are better paid, and have better benefits than their private counterparts.  This actually puts them at a competitive disadvantage, and yet their pricing is usually better than the private carriers.

The USPS was not designed to be profitable.  It was designed to deliver mail across America.

Without disputing the essentials of your story, I must point out that the Tea Party arose in 2009 in response to the introduction of ObamaCare legislation.  So the Republicans of 2006, whatever they were or weren't, weren't being influenced by the Tea Party.
I know that comparing the USPS with UPS and FedEx is an apples-oranges comparison.  To me, what it best illustrates is that a government operation is not the same thing as a for-profit business.  And often, it seems to me, trying to mix the two results in a camel with the worst features of both.
I'll also point out that Democrats have had control of Congress at times since 2006.  In fact, they took over both houses in the 2006 mid-terms, and Barack Obama had a Congress with both houses controlled by Democrats during his 1st two years and had control of the Senate for all 8 years.  I note this because Democrats have had opportunities to "fix" what the Republicans "broke" in 2006.
We've gotten somewhat down in the weeds here.  My point was and is that government operations have less incentive than private business to cut unnecessary costs, to the point that sometimes the incentives for government operations go the other way, and that therefore the government doing a particular task is going to cost more than a private business doing the same thing.  I recognize that there are some things that governments are obligated to either by written constitutional law (e.g., deliver the mail, defend the country) or by common consent of the governed, and oftentimes those aren't going to be profitable in an economic sense.  But those essential functions are still going to be skewed to ensure the greatest benefit to the most powerful politicians, who feel compelled to "bring home the bacon" to their home districts and states in order to keep being re-elected, which is the overriding concern in life for most of them.  So the process of building an M1 tank or an F-35 or a new truck or a new rifle is going to be spread through as many congressional districts as possible.  If General Dynamics Land Systems (I think it's still called that) was merely being told to build the best tank for the best price, it would produce better tanks more cheaply than it does now because it could source its suppliers and sub-contractors based on cost and performance rather than on what congressional districts they occupy.
I'm critical of politics and politicians, but as far as I can tell, they come with the territory of self-government.  To the extent that we want free stuff, even at the cost of a corrupt, self-serving government, we will get a corrupt, self-serving government even if we may not get the free stuff.
I'm not advocating that we replace expensive, corrupt self-government with efficient, honest tyranny.  I am advocating that we grow up and pay attention, and stop thinking that we can get something for nothing.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.  IMO, we've become addicted to what we think are free lunches.  I am highly skeptical of the idea that the guys running the "get yer free lunches here if you vote for me" sort of government can do anything better and/or cheaper than the free market can in the case of things that can be provided by the free market.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 09:11:06 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 05:14:44 PM

I have many stories, but this was a recurring story, because it happened ALL THE TIME.

1.  Corporation or City/State/Local/Federal government decides it wants to privatize its workforce.
2.  Corporation or City/State/Local/Federal government mandates wages & benefits because they want to retain their existing guys.
3.  Surprised face when bids come in higher than their existing costs because we are adding...profit.
4.  In order to avoid embarrassment, bid official completely waives wages and benefits restrictions.
5.  Bids are much lower because contractors can now pay bottom of the market wages with little or no benefits.  Agency takes lowest bidder.
6.  Massive savings.  Super win.
7.  Surprised face when contractor takes over and all of the existing guys are replaced with warm bodies that are just barely competent, at best.
8.  Contractor starts to fail.  Agency hires a consultant to find out what is wrong.  Winning contractor is put on probation or fired.  Outside temporary firm hired at double the price replaces failed contractor.  New bid is rushed out the door.
9.  At the recommendation of consultant, bid mandates wages & benefits.
10.  Goto 3

This happened SO. MANY. TIMES.

This is a description of one variety of trying to mix public purposes with private enterprise.  So often it seems like you get the worst of both worlds.  And something you left out is that often the contractor has paid bribes or promised future kickbacks to the officials on the bidding committee.

Some unfortunately large percentage of human beings are crooks when the circumstances will let them get away with it.  And the same faulty human clay fills corporate boards and houses of congress.  When they get together in a public-private partnership, everybody should hold on to their wallets, because it's fleecing time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 09:32:53 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 08:57:45 PM

Without disputing the essentials of your story, I must point out that the Tea Party arose in 2009 in response to the introduction of ObamaCare legislation.  So the Republicans of 2006, whatever they were or weren't, weren't being influenced by the Tea Party.
I know that comparing the USPS with UPS and FedEx is an apples-oranges comparison.  To me, what it best illustrates is that a government operation is not the same thing as a for-profit business.  And often, it seems to me, trying to mix the two results in a camel with the worst features of both.
I'll also point out that Democrats have had control of Congress at times since 2006.  In fact, they took over both houses in the 2006 mid-terms, and Barack Obama had a Congress with both houses controlled by Democrats during his 1st two years and had control of the Senate for all 8 years.  I note this because Democrats have had opportunities to "fix" what the Republicans "broke" in 2006.
We've gotten somewhat down in the weeds here.  My point was and is that government operations have less incentive than private business to cut unnecessary costs, to the point that sometimes the incentives for government operations go the other way, and that therefore the government doing a particular task is going to cost more than a private business doing the same thing.  I recognize that there are some things that governments are obligated to either by written constitutional law (e.g., deliver the mail, defend the country) or by common consent of the governed, and oftentimes those aren't going to be profitable in an economic sense.  But those essential functions are still going to be skewed to ensure the greatest benefit to the most powerful politicians, who feel compelled to "bring home the bacon" to their home districts and states in order to keep being re-elected, which is the overriding concern in life for most of them.  So the process of building an M1 tank or an F-35 or a new truck or a new rifle is going to be spread through as many congressional districts as possible.  If General Dynamics Land Systems (I think it's still called that) was merely being told to build the best tank for the best price, it would produce better tanks more cheaply than it does now because it could source its suppliers and sub-contractors based on cost and performance rather than on what congressional districts they occupy.
I'm critical of politics and politicians, but as far as I can tell, they come with the territory of self-government.  To the extent that we want free stuff, even at the cost of a corrupt, self-serving government, we will get a corrupt, self-serving government even if we may not get the free stuff.
I'm not advocating that we replace expensive, corrupt self-government with efficient, honest tyranny.  I am advocating that we grow up and pay attention, and stop thinking that we can get something for nothing.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.  IMO, we've become addicted to what we think are free lunches.  I am highly skeptical of the idea that the guys running the "get yer free lunches here if you vote for me" sort of government can do anything better and/or cheaper than the free market can in the case of things that can be provided by the free market.

I was only trying to clarify the situation the USPS is in.  It isn't in nearly the dire financial straits it may appear on first glance.

To respond to your stuff in bold, that's not always true.  Sometimes government run or government regulated is just better.  That's not wishful thinking, that can be proven with real data.  Ideologically, libertarians believe the government can do almost nothing right.  Communists believe that the market can do almost nothing right.  People typically draw their lines somewhere between those two extremes.  

For me?  I don't take an ideological side.  I recognize the fact the most of the time the free market is the right solution.  I also recognize the fact that sometimes the government needs to get involved in some capacity for the good of its people. Where do I draw my line?  Show me the data. 

Which brings me full circle.  I do think that the government needs to step up and actively try and reduce carbon emissions.  Something needs to happen now, and I believe that the evidence is clear.  Government involvement appears to be the best option for real change in the shortest amount of time.

Yes, I recognize we are only the 2nd largest CO2 producer in the world.  I think our government is in the best position to positively influence China and everyone else.  It has happened before.  Remember acid rain?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 09:40:57 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 09:20:50 PM

Because there is no incentive to come in under budget.  All it means for a government program to do that is that the budget for next year gets cut.
Why is the U.S. Postal Service a money pit while Fedex and UPS are profitable?  Why can't Amtrak operate at a profit even while having a near-monopoly on RR passenger travel? And even while selling soft drinks for $5 and reheated grocery-store frozen hamburgers for $10?

The bolded happens at regular companies too. 

With the USPS, there's the things that have already been pointed out. It was saddled with maintaining what? 75 years of healthcare prefunding? That's gonna make a money pit. And as said, it has to compete in its most efficent areas, while it's competitors simply contract to it for less efficent areas. (To a degree, it's also falling off because people just send fewer letters)

I assume Amtrak can't operate at a profit because it operates in some inefficient areas and because long-distance rail travel is terrible. Perhaps they should scale back to only commuter slightly longer than commuter distances. (Do they maintain tracks? I'd assume not. But if so, it would put another dent in them anyway).

Now these government things could do stuff to get more competitive. Amtrak would probably involve cutting out the long-distance travel altogether and focus on more local and regional stuff. The post office is more interesting. You'd assume the steps would at least involve: 
-Cutting back on rural service
-Making rural places pay more
-Putting the squeeze on other companies who contract with them for rural service (keep it profitable enough to keep doing, but eat into those companies' margins)

The mail part is also interesting and frankly confusing. They can't raise those prices without congressional approval. They actually had to cut prices in 2016 because they hit a certain revenue threshold. And since the recession, they've held a mostly positive cashflow. They're very weird. (They also will probably shrink simply as letters go away, but that's kind of a structural thing)

Anyway, the path to more efficiency would probably be to cater to cities and not rural areas, and probably try to squeeze more money from companies and rural consumers. It's what a competitive business would do. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 09:59:23 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 08:57:45 PM

There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.  IMO, we've become addicted to what we think are free lunches.  I am highly skeptical of the idea that the guys running the "get yer free lunches here if you vote for me" sort of government can do anything better and/or cheaper than the free market can in the case of things that can be provided by the free market.

Reading this part, it strikes me that a quasi-free lunch situation (the GI bill) set the stage for our college bubble. Weird.

(Free lunch in that it was a weird perk that insulated a generation from those costs and made it commonplace)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:02:36 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 16, 2020, 09:32:53 PM

I was only trying to clarify the situation the USPS is in.  It isn't in nearly the dire financial straits it may appear on first glance.

To respond to your stuff in bold, that's not always true.  Sometimes government run or government regulated is just better.  That's not wishful thinking, that can be proven with real data.  Ideologically, libertarians believe the government can do almost nothing right.  Communists believe that the market can do almost nothing right.  People typically draw their lines somewhere between those two extremes. 

For me?  I don't take an ideological side.  I recognize the fact the most of the time the free market is the right solution.  I also recognize the fact that sometimes the government needs to get involved in some capacity for the good of its people. Where do I draw my line?  Show me the data. 

Which brings me full circle.  I do think that the government needs to step up and actively try and reduce carbon emissions.  Something needs to happen now, and I believe that the evidence is clear.  Government involvement appears to be the best option for real change in the shortest amount of time.

Yes, I recognize we are only the 2nd largest CO2 producer in the world.  I think our government is in the best position to positively influence China and everyone else.  It has happened before.  Remember acid rain?

Right.  I hope I have not implied that there is no role for government.  I'm not a libertarian, so I can't speak for them, but I don't understand them to be anarchists either.
I do take an ideological side.  If you show me with data that beyond a shadow of a doubt our country would operate more efficiently if old people were put to sleep and turned into Soylent Green at age 75, I would not support that idea.  If you showed me the same if every baby born with birth defects would get to make that same contribution to social welfare, I would not support that either.
I can think of some interesting regulations that could unleash free-market creativity.  Require that fossil-fuel-burning power plants use only air from their smokestacks for their HVAC systems.  Require that city water treatment plants discharge upstream of the city water intakes.
But those ideas would not line politicians' pockets or ensure their re-election, so they would be seen to have too much downside.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:11:41 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 09:59:23 PM

Reading this part, it strikes me that a quasi-free lunch situation (the GI bill) set the stage for our college bubble. Weird.

(Free lunch in that it was a weird perk that insulated a generation from those costs and made it commonplace)

But everybody (well, there must have been exceptions) recognized (or should have recognized) that the taxpayers (including the beneficiaries themselves) were paying for it.  And it was seen as an earned benefit for the GIs who had just saved the world (even though only a relative few had actually suffered in harsh and dangerous conditions, much less faced enemy fire).
And, in the long run, we probably are still paying for it.  I imagine that there are lines of causation connecting the GI bill with today's bloated university environment and the lessened value of high school education.
So, after all that, yeah, quasi-free lunch situation.  Seemed free (or maybe just cheap) but in the long run it wasn't so much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 07:29:19 AM

When my son got out of the marine corps, having served two stints in 'Stan, he used his GI Bill money to get a certificate in electrical contracting. He's now an electrician, making very good money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 17, 2020, 07:40:56 AM

Regarding pollution and carbon, the free market has always struggled with pollution control, because companies don't take into account costs of pollution without the government forcing them to.  If you can just dump your waste, at no cost to you, then you do it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 07:56:34 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on May 17, 2020, 07:40:56 AM

Regarding pollution and carbon, the free market has always struggled with pollution control, because companies don't take into account costs of pollution without the government forcing them to.  If you can just dump your waste, at no cost to you, then you do it.

The 1970's are over. "Companies" are mostly all doing their best to be good stewards. Of course there are bad apples.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 08:20:15 AM

I think companies would pollute to the letter of the law while running slick commercials pretending otherwise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2020, 09:00:51 AM

whatever is more profitable 

I've witnessed a company dump against the law and pay the fines, because it cost less than disposing properly

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 09:08:27 AM

I worked at a site out in the country for years that was mostly chemical labs.  Before my time, folks would take their chemical waste and throw it in a pit out back.  There must have been 300 labs at least in the facility.  They paved that over for manager parking, but the site was/is a Superfund site.  When the company shut down serious R&D, they tried to sell the facility (which in fact is very nice) but couldn't because of the dump.  I think it still stands there derelict, but maybe they tore it down.

I looked it up, it was torn down in 2016.  They had a major expansion in 1988.  That part was super nice.

I liked working there mostly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 11:54:57 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:02:36 PM

Right.  I hope I have not implied that there is no role for government.  I'm not a libertarian, so I can't speak for them, but I don't understand them to be anarchists either.
I do take an ideological side.  If you show me with data that beyond a shadow of a doubt our country would operate more efficiently if old people were put to sleep and turned into Soylent Green at age 75, I would not support that idea.  If you showed me the same if every baby born with birth defects would get to make that same contribution to social welfare, I would not support that either.
I can think of some interesting regulations that could unleash free-market creativity.  Require that fossil-fuel-burning power plants use only air from their smokestacks for their HVAC systems.  Require that city water treatment plants discharge upstream of the city water intakes.
But those ideas would not line politicians' pockets or ensure their re-election, so they would be seen to have too much downside.  :)

OK, ya got me.  99% of the time I look at the data and let that guide my decision.  Obviously, if the answer to global warming was kicking puppies, than I would leave that to Jim Harbaugh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 11:58:33 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 07:29:19 AM

When my son got out of the marine corps, having served two stints in 'Stan, he used his GI Bill money to get a certificate in electrical contracting. He's now an electrician, making very good money.

I bet he pays taxes, too.  And he's a productive member of society?  And he's a veteran?

Good job, Badge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 12:01:11 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 09:08:27 AM

I worked at a site out in the country for years that was mostly chemical labs.  Before my time, folks would take their chemical waste and throw it in a pit out back.  There must have been 300 labs at least in the facility.  They paved that over for manager parking, but the site was/is a Superfund site.  When the company shut down serious R&D, they tried to sell the facility (which in fact is very nice) but couldn't because of the dump.  I think it still stands there derelict, but maybe they tore it down.

I looked it up, it was torn down in 2016.  They had a major expansion in 1988.  That part was super nice.

I liked working there mostly.

I did some work with a company that had a site like this.  They kept it open and barely staffed because the laws mandated that they clean it up if they shut down.  It was cheaper to keep it running than to clean it up.  Ahh, Philly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 12:07:38 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 11:58:33 AM

I bet he pays taxes, too.  And he's a productive member of society?  And he's a veteran?

Good job, Badge.

We are very proud of him. Thank you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 01:33:59 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 07:56:34 AM

The 1970's are over. "Companies" are mostly all doing their best to be good stewards. Of course there are bad apples.

If you gain a competitive advantage for doing sh!tty stuff, you will gain market share.  It is human nature to skirt the rules.

The bad apples end up winning, forcing the good apples to follow suit to survive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 02:18:06 PM

Company leaders today are much more educated on these things. "Nobody" is dumping raw waste into rivers/lakes anymore.

Except Government, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 02:29:19 PM

I think companies would rapidly return to polluting as much as they could as fast as they could while running PR campaigns to pretend to be "green" if it saved a few bucks.  Those that didn't could well end up losing market share and even going under.

I see these Exxon commercials about fuel from algae and they make me gag.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on May 17, 2020, 02:37:00 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 02:18:06 PM

Company leaders today are much more educated on these things. "Nobody" is dumping raw waste into rivers/lakes anymore.

Except Government, of course.

I agree that nobody would be dumping but do believe that if maint could be pushed out, companies would do that... and pushing out maint would lead to more accidents that cause pollution.   So while we are more educated on the implications, I'm not as confident that budgets would always be prioritized like they are today.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 02:52:08 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2020, 02:18:06 PM

Company leaders today are much more educated on these things. "Nobody" is dumping raw waste into rivers/lakes anymore.

Except Government, of course.

If environmental regulations were eliminated today, do you think everyone would continue to play nice?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 03:15:55 PM

I don't.  Someone would cheat first and gain competitive advantage, and then it would be an avalanche.

There is zero market advantage in not polluting, and a significant cost advantage in doing so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 03:17:49 PM

Let's take low sulfur Diesel fuel as an example.  It's mandated in the US (but not in Europe, which is "green").  Does anyone sell low sulfur Diesel in Europe?  Nope.  If the requirement here were lifted, do you think truckers would pay an extra 20 cents a gallon for it?

(I don't know how much it costs, but I do know there is an issue of what to do with all the sulfur being removed from fuel.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 04:49:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 03:15:55 PM

I don't.  Someone would cheat first and gain competitive advantage, and then it would be an avalanche.

There is zero market advantage in not polluting, and a significant cost advantage in doing so.

Exactly. 

I worked finance in the corporate world.  Eventually you get high enough and removed enough that everything breaks down to numbers.  One of the companies I did some work for was self insured for their health insurance.  One single employee had a very sick child and it was costing the company over a million a year.  Do you know how many times I had to fight behind the scenes to stop people from firing that guy to keep our insurance costs down?   Eeesh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 05:42:17 PM

I had to deal with the EPA a few times, and the city municipal water folks once.  The latter were completely and totally incompetent.  They had zero clue about anything.  The EPA guys were trying to do a good job, they were, but the CFR is so "byzantine" and bizarre, they spent hours on the phone back to HQ trying to interpret passages I pointed out to them that were mangled.  These guys typically had degrees in environmental science and knew their basics.  I had no problem with them.

I had to deal with OSHA twice, and it was the same deal really, younger fellow trying to do the right thing and confused by the Code.  I managed to avert a $100,000 fine because of the ambiguity I noted.  

I had to deal with the US PTO a few times (Patent Office).  They were staffed by two types, younger fellows going to Georgetown Law School at night who put in their hours and then studied, and the old geezers who had been there for eons and DID NOT CARE.  The geezers knew how to work the system, they had to track something called "counts", which is akin to billable hours.  It was a scam of course.  We learned how to work the system to out advantage.  I once had a patent approved in nine months from sending it in to notice of approval.  I was proud of that one.

It actually was an invention, which is very unusual in patentland.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 17, 2020, 06:12:39 PM

First of all, they should rename the EPA.  In the last 3 years, it hasn't protected jack squat.

Secondly, if they passed a law that you could dump anything, companies would be dumping horrific crap THAT MORNING to save a penny.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 06:17:17 PM

You might not like what the EPA has done publicly, depending, but they have very much been extant over the past three years.

https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-announces-2019-annual-environmental-enforcement-results (https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-announces-2019-annual-environmental-enforcement-results)

One could argue of course they should be doing more, fine, but to assert they are doing nothing is absurd hyperbole.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 17, 2020, 06:35:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 06:17:17 PM

You might not like what the EPA has done publicly, depending, but they have very much been extant over the past three years.

https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-announces-2019-annual-environmental-enforcement-results (https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-announces-2019-annual-environmental-enforcement-results)

One could argue of course they should be doing more, fine, but to assert they are doing nothing is absurd hyperbole.

64 rollbacks and 34 pending.
Coal lobbyist to head the EPA.
C'mon man, it's not hyperbole.

Lessening CO2 emissions
Reversing clean air and clean water acts
weakening protections of wetlands and protetcted areas
opening up allowance of mercury emissions
power companies no longer have to report methane emissions
loosened toxic emission standards


The only environmentally friendly things have been from losing in court.

Basically, you're completely wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 07:34:06 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 17, 2020, 06:35:09 PM

64 rollbacks and 34 pending.
Coal lobbyist to head the EPA.
C'mon man, it's not hyperbole.

Lessening CO2 emissions
Reversing clean air and clean water acts
weakening protections of wetlands and protetcted areas
opening up allowance of mercury emissions
power companies no longer have to report methane emissions
loosened toxic emission standards


The only environmentally friendly things have been from losing in court.

Basically, you're completely wrong.

He's not completely wrong.  The EPA still has teeth, even if half of them have been knocked out in the last 3 years.  

There was a time when the republicans were proud to support the EPA. Richard Nixon CREATED it.  Republicans have shifted far to the right on so many issues, but especially on environmental ones.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 07:57:00 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 17, 2020, 06:12:39 PM

First of all, they should rename the EPA.  In the last 3 years, it hasn't protected jack squat.

This is hyperbole, entirely, and ridiculous.  The EPA is still extant and still enforcing the rules even if you don't like what they do.

This is absurd, about like the egg lobby silliness.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 17, 2020, 08:00:53 PM

You're patting them on the back for making sure we're only poisoning ourselves a little more than we used to.  Brilliant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 08:04:03 PM

I'm not patting anyone on the back.  They could well be doing less than they should, but to claim they have done NOTHING is ludicrous.

Your hyperbole is getting comical.

Try dealing with reality sometime.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 17, 2020, 08:16:06 PM

It's the Motte and Bailey argument again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 07:34:56 AM

This thread is about to be toast.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 08:39:17 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 17, 2020, 02:52:08 PM

If environmental regulations were eliminated today, do you think everyone would continue to play nice?

I do think most all would play nice.

I'll say something about the EPA, given that I've done a lot of work on cleanup sites, and I actually know what I'm talking about, unlike most here.

The amount of "waste" in that agency is startling. I had a project a few years ago, out in Vancouver, WA. It was a cleanup site, and in order to do it right, we had to run about a mile of sanitary sewer so that the effluent could be further treated at the local treatment plant before final discharge.

I got my hands on the EPA's design, and on behalf of my client, did some value engineering. I was able to get the construction cost to about 1/3 of what the EPA's engineering consultant (URS) came up with, and it was a better design too. Much better. Theirs relied on pumps and valves and other crap to make the thing "work". I was like an "academic" designed the thing. My solution was completely gravity. The latter is more reliable (duh).

There are a ton of redundant regulations, by the way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 08:58:36 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 07:34:56 AM

This thread is about to be toast.

I'm happily surprised it has lasted this long

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 08:59:04 AM

yes, meat packers would dump raw sewage into rivers if they could

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 09:02:07 AM

I disagree. People understand the need to keep our waters clean, much more so than they did before the Clean Water Act came to be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:02:42 AM

One task I would take on if President would be to direct that the CFR be rewritten to make it consistent, clearly worded, and understandable.  That would take forever of course, and ti still wouldn't be anywhere near good, but it might help.

The parts I dealt with might as well have been written in Chinese or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 09:03:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 08:58:36 AM

I'm happily surprised it has lasted this long

People lately seem to want to interject politics into everything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 09:06:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:02:42 AM

One task I would take on if President would be to direct that the CFR be rewritten to make it consistent, clearly worded, and understandable.  That would take forever of course, and ti still wouldn't be anywhere near good, but it might help.

The parts I dealt with might as well have been written in Chinese or something.

I like that idea, and I also think this needs to happen at the State and local levels too.

I could direct you to a county website, wherein the rules in the stormwater sections dictate that wetlands will not be filled (understandable, and correct). Then, in the health department section, it advises people that standing water should not be allowed on your property, so as to stop the West Nile Virus (mosquitos).

This confuses people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:08:04 AM

I worked for a supposedly socially responsible company, and I'm 99% certain they would pollute like crazy if not regulated otherwise.

The guy at the top might be saying we wouldn't do it, but the guy 3-4 layers down whose bonuses depended on market share and profits would.  And we generated a lot of pollutants that were expensive to manage.  We got out of the pulping operation because it was too expensive to deal with pulp effluents.

Sell it to someone else and let them pollute instead, until they get caught, IF they get caught, not our problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 18, 2020, 11:30:28 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 07:34:56 AM

This thread is about to be toast.

If it's sourdough toast, I'll take an order. 

It's super silly to pay for, but sometimes I'm at a place with nice breakfasts and it just completes the meal. 

(To maintain the environmental quota ... uh ... I live next to a river where I'm positive they used to dump any old thing. People still fish in the thing. They once pulled up a civil war cannon)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 12:40:51 PM

The botanical garden is open, appointment only they said, booked up today, they said, but it's a bit drizzly, so we went and got in, right away, not many people out, the rain held off and it was very nice to see it again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 12:51:55 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 08:39:17 AM

I do think most all would play nice.

I'll say something about the EPA, given that I've done a lot of work on cleanup sites, and I actually know what I'm talking about, unlike most here.

The amount of "waste" in that agency is startling. I had a project a few years ago, out in Vancouver, WA. It was a cleanup site, and in order to do it right, we had to run about a mile of sanitary sewer so that the effluent could be further treated at the local treatment plant before final discharge.

I got my hands on the EPA's design, and on behalf of my client, did some value engineering. I was able to get the construction cost to about 1/3 of what the EPA's engineering consultant (URS) came up with, and it was a better design too. Much better. Theirs relied on pumps and valves and other crap to make the thing "work". I was like an "academic" designed the thing. My solution was completely gravity. The latter is more reliable (duh).

There are a ton of redundant regulations, by the way.

Your experience is different than mine.  I worked in instrumentation and control for a few years and those guys would try everything they could to skirt the rules.

I have a small story from a papermill.  This papermill ran a controlled amount of wastewater into a river.  It was strictly regulated by the EPA.  They paid a guy big bucks a few times a year to make sure it was calibrated correctly.  This went on for 20+years, until the meter eventually went bad and there was no way to fix it.  They contacted us, we sent them a brand new, fancy meter, high end certifications, the works.  They install it, and immediately call us, furious, because it was faulty.  That didn't make sense to us, because it had been calibrated just a couple of days earlier.  Maybe it was damaged in shipment.  It happens. 

There wasn't enough time to make a new meter, so our guys went out there with some ultrasonic flow meters that you can just stick on the outside of the pipe.  These meters weren't as accurate, but their numbers were so far off it would at least put them in the right ballpark until we could fix the problem.  We install these meters, and are shocked to see that the flow measurements match the "faulty" meter exactly.

When we explain to the executives at the papermill that our meter is correct, they argue that they have had their meter inspected and calibrated a few times a year, and that our numbers must be wrong.  We ask to see the paperwork. 

Their guy faked everything.  All he did was test the electronics.  The company let this go on for years.  Here's the thing...we had been trying to earn their calibration business for awhile, and they always said their guy did it for a fraction of our cost.  We could never figure that out.  The only way to truly calibrate a meter like this is to take it out, ship it to a calibration facility, run it against a known standard, ship it back, and then reinstall it.  That's why most of these places had multiple meters, as they would just swap each one out as needed to keep their factory running.  The EPA requirements specified this, as well.

The guy knew what he was doing, and was making a killing with nothing but a voltmeter.  The company chose to turn a blind a blind eye, because they were saving thousands of dollars in labor, testing, and equipment.  The company was also either ignorant or willfully ignoring the EPA rules. 

Now the jig was up.  They were looking at paying 20+ years of fines from the EPA totaling well into the millions.  They promptly decided to "go with another contractor."  We never heard another thing about it.  We had a good relationship with that company, and in the next two years they never let us on their plant again.  I watched the news to see if they would come clean.  Nothing.  The guy should have gotten jail time.  Nope.

That's just one story out of many I have. 

If you expect it, you must monitor it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 12:58:43 PM

I should also point out that the EPA is grossly underfunded.  They can't do the inspections they need to, and they don't have the engineering staff they need.  Maybe you got a boilerplate spec, because they didn't have the staff to actually spec things?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 01:01:35 PM

The pulp mills have a very hard time meeting water regulations, very hard.  To do it properly takes a lot of money.  I'm not at all surprised to hear that one would be delighted to pretend there is no problem.  

We imported a lot of eucalyptus fiber from Brazil where I imagine they don't have these issues at all.  I know one company had a floating pulp mill and they dumped their effluent into the Amazon, no problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 01:02:45 PM

They used their underfunding to hire the most expensive engineering firm money can buy. As I mentioned, URS did the original design. So, there's your underfunding at work.

There is no "standard" spec that can be applied to sanitary sewer design. Every site is different.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 01:14:50 PM

I had a sump pump in my house.  Gravity is a lot more reliable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 01:43:21 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 01:02:45 PM

They used their underfunding to hire the most expensive engineering firm money can buy. As I mentioned, URS did the original design. So, there's your underfunding at work.

There is no "standard" spec that can be applied to sanitary sewer design. Every site is different.

So many times our industrial customers would put out a bid and then award the work to the lowest bidder.  Sometimes the winning bidder would have impossibly low numbers.  We'd literally show the client our costs, and yet the winning bidder would still be significantly cheaper.  It rarely mattered.  The bid specified that the contractor was taking responsibility, after all.  

I'd say 90% of the time companies took the low bidder even though it was plainly obvious they were somehow skirting the rules.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 01:49:32 PM

I suspect a lot of larger companies who value their public image but engage in polluting activities they pay to control would simple outsource, like the pulp operation thing.  You sell it to some smaller less public company who doesn't care.  Then you buy their product, at arms length from any nastiness.  So, the larger company can claim some kind of sanctity because they aren't doing the polluting directly, like companies who sell cosmetics and claim not to do animal testing.  Well, of course they don't.  They buy stuff from companies that do whatever animal testing is required for safety.

It's pretty easy to see companies skirting labeling rules for example, this would be no different.  I noted previously about how "Cage Free" with eggs means effectively nothing except they charge 3x for that label.  The hens don't know any difference.  This is true for nearly all food labels, gimmicks like gluten free, organic, no added artificial stuff, low fat, all largely gimmicks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 01:50:30 PM

Engineering and other professional services are not subject to competitive bidding. URS and the other big firms know this. They have big "entertainment" budgets too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 18, 2020, 01:59:21 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 09:02:07 AM

I disagree. People understand the need to keep our waters clean, much more so than they did before the Clean Water Act came to be.

Those are the people who aren't the decision-makers in these huge companies, tasked with cutting every penny and rounding every corner.

The majority of people want clean water, and the minority of decision-makers don't give a damn.  They want to keep their jobs.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 18, 2020, 02:02:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 01:49:32 PM

It's pretty easy to see companies skirting labeling rules for example, this would be no different.  I noted previously about how "Cage Free" with eggs means effectively nothing except they charge 3x for that label.  The hens don't know any difference.  This is true for nearly all food labels, gimmicks like gluten free, organic, no added artificial stuff, low fat, all largely gimmicks.

Right, the Supersize me guy worked as a chicken provider and to make his "cage free" or "free range", all he had to do was crack the doors open at one end of the chicken house.  The chickens merely needed access to sunlight.  That's all it said in the rules - not a % of the chickens, not a square footage of space, none of it.  Crack the door open and put up a semi-circle pen to keep them from truly being free-range.  

It's all a joke.  Millions of dollars are spent to keep the public in the dark, and the legal red tape is so thick that once something does come to light, the public feels helpless to create change.

Rinse.
Repeat.
Make millions.
Laugh at the bleeding-heart libs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 02:35:56 PM

all older meat packing plants were built on rivers

merely to dump waste

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 02:46:13 PM

The hog farms in NC were infamous for draining hog piss and S into streams.  They did not smell good either.

I don't trust anyone over 35.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 06:54:43 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 12:51:55 PM

Your experience is different than mine.  I worked in instrumentation and control for a few years and those guys would try everything they could to skirt the rules.

I have a small story from a papermill.  This papermill ran a controlled amount of wastewater into a river.  It was strictly regulated by the EPA.  They paid a guy big bucks a few times a year to make sure it was calibrated correctly.  This went on for 20+years, until the meter eventually went bad and there was no way to fix it.  They contacted us, we sent them a brand new, fancy meter, high end certifications, the works.  They install it, and immediately call us, furious, because it was faulty.  That didn't make sense to us, because it had been calibrated just a couple of days earlier.  Maybe it was damaged in shipment.  It happens. 

There wasn't enough time to make a new meter, so our guys went out there with some ultrasonic flow meters that you can just stick on the outside of the pipe.  These meters weren't as accurate, but their numbers were so far off it would at least put them in the right ballpark until we could fix the problem.  We install these meters, and are shocked to see that the flow measurements match the "faulty" meter exactly.

When we explain to the executives at the papermill that our meter is correct, they argue that they have had their meter inspected and calibrated a few times a year, and that our numbers must be wrong.  We ask to see the paperwork. 

Their guy faked everything.  All he did was test the electronics.  The company let this go on for years.  Here's the thing...we had been trying to earn their calibration business for awhile, and they always said their guy did it for a fraction of our cost.  We could never figure that out.  The only way to truly calibrate a meter like this is to take it out, ship it to a calibration facility, run it against a known standard, ship it back, and then reinstall it.  That's why most of these places had multiple meters, as they would just swap each one out as needed to keep their factory running.  The EPA requirements specified this, as well.

The guy knew what he was doing, and was making a killing with nothing but a voltmeter.  The company chose to turn a blind a blind eye, because they were saving thousands of dollars in labor, testing, and equipment.  The company was also either ignorant or willfully ignoring the EPA rules. 

Now the jig was up.  They were looking at paying 20+ years of fines from the EPA totaling well into the millions.  They promptly decided to "go with another contractor."  We never heard another thing about it.  We had a good relationship with that company, and in the next two years they never let us on their plant again.  I watched the news to see if they would come clean.  Nothing.  The guy should have gotten jail time.  Nope.

That's just one story out of many I have. 

If you expect it, you must monitor it.

I have worked with a guy who is now retiring from teaching, his second career.  His first was as an in-house lawyer to a couple of oil companies, and he dealt with environmental compliance.  His experience with the EPA--at least at one point--was that they would allow you to self-report and fix the problem without charging back-penalties.  Maybe not at the time you had the experience with the paper mill.
But this raises a question: Did the EPA inspectors never inspect the calibration paperwork?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 06:56:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 02:46:13 PM

The hog farms in NC were infamous for draining hog piss and S into streams.  They did not smell good either.

I don't trust anyone over 35. 

I hope I die before I get old

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 07:05:00 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 06:56:37 PM

I hope I die before I get old

I read an article a few months ago about how the younger generation has an average IQ about 2 points higher than the older generations.

The most theorized reason?  Lead Paint.

Millennials actually had the highest IQ between all generations tested.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 07:11:14 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 07:05:00 PM

I read an article a few months ago about how the younger generation has an average IQ about 2 points higher than the older generations.

The most theorized reason?  Lead Paint.

Millennials actually had the highest IQ between all generations tested.

Makes sense.

But there are things more important than IQ, which many millennials have yet to discover.  Work ethic and willingness to accept responsibility are two of 'em.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 07:11:58 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 07:05:00 PM

I read an article a few months ago about how the younger generation has an average IQ about 2 points higher than the older generations.

The most theorized reason?  Lead Paint.

Millennials actually had the highest IQ between all generations tested.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 07:31:30 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 07:11:14 PM

Makes sense.

But there are things more important than IQ, which many millennials have yet to discover.  Work ethic and willingness to accept responsibility are two of 'em.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's been said about younger generations for millenia.  lol

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 07:41:39 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 18, 2020, 07:11:58 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect)

Wow, a 14 point IQ jump?  That almost an entire standard deviation.

Cool, thanks!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 07:54:00 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 07:31:30 PM

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's been said about younger generations for millenia.  lol

And it was probably true in most of the cases.  It's amazing how they get better as they get more mature.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 18, 2020, 07:57:21 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 07:11:14 PM

Makes sense.

But there are things more important than IQ, which many millennials have yet to discover.  Work ethic and willingness to accept responsibility are two of 'em.

Understanding that you don't have to pick either IQ or work ethic is just as important.  

It's the 3* and coaching them up vs 5* debate.  
The "answer" is you get the 5* kids and coach them up.  

IQ is mostly dumb luck, no pun intended.  As is having a 5* athlete's body.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 09:53:05 PM

Your IQ is no credit to you, any more than your hair color is.

It's what you do or don't do with it that reflects credit, or lack thereof, on you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 18, 2020, 10:10:36 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 07:54:00 PM

And it was probably true in most of the cases.  It's amazing how they get better as they get more mature.

So you're saying millennials are no less responsible or hard working than any other 22-38 year old cohort in history? They just happen to be the one that's 22-38 right now?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2020, 11:16:58 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 18, 2020, 10:10:36 PM

So you're saying millennials are no less responsible or hard working than any other 22-38 year old cohort in history? They just happen to be the one that's 22-38 right now?

That's pretty much my experience.  The millennials that get hired into my company are hard-working, intelligent, motivated, and responsible.  

I have three nephews that are millennials and one of them is the stereotypical millennial-- overly bearded hipster that works part time as a barrista or a brewery assistant or a waiter or whatever the current job of the month is, but thoroughly believes all those jobs are beneath him, all the while not bothering to wake up and get to work on time and thus continues moving from job to job.  The other two were pretty irresponsible in their teens and early 20s like many folks of all generations tend to be, but are now married and steady income earners with families.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 11:19:56 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 06:54:43 PM

I have worked with a guy who is now retiring from teaching, his second career.  His first was as an in-house lawyer to a couple of oil companies, and he dealt with environmental compliance.  His experience with the EPA--at least at one point--was that they would allow you to self-report and fix the problem without charging back-penalties.  Maybe not at the time you had the experience with the paper mill.
But this raises a question: Did the EPA inspectors never inspect the calibration paperwork?

The paperwork looked legit on the surface. The problem?  It couldn’t have been calibrated if hadn’t moved in 20 years.  I assume the paperwork was good enough not to raise suspicion.

I don’t know this for a fact, but I’m pretty sure they swept it under the rug, as evidenced by how fast they got us out of  there. 

Nuclear power plants were bad, but in a different way. 
Cigarette manufacturers were almost comically evil.  There are so many chemicals added to cigarettes....
Bottled “spring” water was almost always just tap water back then.  I guess a reservoir counts as a spring.... technically. 
A lot of small businesses we dealt with were run by terrible people, too.  If they could make a buck they would lie, cheat, and steal to get there. 

I have so many stories from those days. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:00:46 AM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 18, 2020, 10:10:36 PM

So you're saying millennials are no less responsible or hard working than any other 22-38 year old cohort in history? They just happen to be the one that's 22-38 right now?

No, I'm not saying that.  I'm just agreeing that other young generations have had their elders clucking in dismay, and that the elders have often been correct.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:05:53 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 18, 2020, 11:19:56 PM

The paperwork looked legit on the surface. The problem?  It couldn’t have been calibrated if hadn’t moved in 20 years.  I assume the paperwork was good enough not to raise suspicion.

I don’t know this for a fact, but I’m pretty sure they swept it under the rug, as evidenced by how fast they got us out of  there.

Nuclear power plants were bad, but in a different way.
Cigarette manufacturers were almost comically evil.  There are so many chemicals added to cigarettes....
Bottled “spring” water was almost always just tap water back then.  I guess a reservoir counts as a spring.... technically.
A lot of small businesses we dealt with were run by terrible people, too.  If they could make a buck they would lie, cheat, and steal to get there.

I have so many stories from those days.

My point has been that the people who go into government jobs are not somehow better, more moral, more hardworking and energetic than all those scoundrels in private business you have encountered.  Who knows?  The EPA inspector might have been in on the scam.  Might have been taking a little under the table to never even look at the meter.
Ever been to a post office and waited half an hour while the employees behind the counter were taking their sweet time with everything they did?  Those kind of people can end up working for the EPA too.  And it's almost impossible to fire them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 05:26:54 AM

In my experience, we notice when someone at "Kroger" does a bad job, and it stands out over the hundred times we go and they do a good job.  Either that or I'm really lucky in life.  Most folks who have a real job try and do a decent enough effort.

I learned that when everyone else around you is slacking with no penalty, folks all start slacking, or spend all their effort sucking up (which often works).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 07:03:52 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:05:53 AM

My point has been that the people who go into politics are not somehow better, more moral, more hardworking and energetic than all those scoundrels in private business you have encountered.  Who knows?  The EPA inspector might have been in on the scam.  Might have been taking a little under the table to never even look at the meter.
Ever been to a post office and waited half an hour while the employees behind the counter were taking their sweet time with everything they did?  Those kind of people can end up working for the EPA too.  And it's almost impossible to fire them.

That was my experience, working for the government. I couldn't wait to get out.

And those kinds of people do work for the EPA. That agency has 15,000 people in it.

Every state has it's own EPA too. Some call it DNR. Illinois has both an EPA and a DNR, because it can?? Those two have conflicting regulations on many things, which hurts permitting. Add in the next layer of the Army Corps permit...

I did a job last year in Lake County, IL and between Federal, State and Local, the developer was required to pull 37 different permits related to the site work. THIRTY SEVEN.

The government is not here to help. It's here to exist.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 08:22:30 AM

I was telling the wife that we could not have lived here in 1970 because of the air quality.  (This building also didn't exist.)

The regulations have cleaned up our air and water measurably, and importantly, though I'm sure inefficiently.  I imagine a modern car with 100% gasoline and no cats would provide superior mileage and power versus current engines, and be cheaper as well.  Imagine you had a choice between two cars, one with current emissions equipment and one without.  Most would take the latter.

The gasohol story is a good example of a government program that sounded good initially and now we're stuck with it even knowing it is horrible all the way around.  The EPA has been pushing to allow 15% ethanol into regular fuel, and the E85 thing never amounted to anything.  We actually have a law mandating high use of cellulosic ethanol, a law on the books, which is entirely ignored because CE is simply not viable.  Sounded like a good idea.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/02/11/cellulosic-ethanol-falling-far-short-of-the-hype/#3c6f7a34505f (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/02/11/cellulosic-ethanol-falling-far-short-of-the-hype/#3c6f7a34505f)

I recall discussing this when the mandates were mandated with some biochemists at work who scoffed at the notion.  I became a scoffer as well the more I read about it.

I was involved in this circa 1990-1994 because there was a plan to use CE in Brazil (from bagasse) to make ethylene and then polyethylene, which one could claim was "naturally sourced" or somesuch BS.  That of course also failed.  It never made a bit of sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 08:22:51 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 07:03:52 AM

I did a job last year in Lake County, IL and between Federal, State and Local, the developer was required to pull 37 different permits related to the site work. THIRTY SEVEN.

The government is not here to help. It's here to exist.

Man I can see for a Nuclear Power,Desalination or Waste Water Treatment Plants but that's redikerous

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 08:51:52 AM

Too many redundant agencies, all with their own "purpose" - their need to exist, and be "relevant".

It was maddening, especially when the regulations conflict and they are reluctant to talk to each other.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 09:31:27 AM

Like an ignorant litter of lackeys forgetting why they are paid

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 09:40:46 AM

Frankly, I'm more amazed things work as well as they do.  Stuff does get done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 09:51:22 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:00:46 AM

No, I'm not saying that.  I'm just agreeing that other young generations have had their elders clucking in dismay, and that the elders have often been correct.

OK. So are millennials part of a trend of a drop in hardworking-ness and taking responsibility. Like they do it less than your generation, which did it less than the previous generation and so on and so forth? Or are most generations about at the same level, and millennials just took a dip?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 09:57:24 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 07:03:52 AM

I did a job last year in Lake County, IL and between Federal, State and Local, the developer was required to pull 37 different permits related to the site work. THIRTY SEVEN.

This isn't that surprising?

Not that all of them are particularly wise or that they couldn't be packaged into more efficent permits. But I'm sure in the process of developing, developers have managed to find well more than 37 different ways to cause some kind of problem to the area around the development. 

Obviously I don't live in that world, but I'd assume it's sort of like a piling up of situations like when you go into a park and see a weird sign (i.e. "Don't eat the dirt, it contains fertilizer") because some irresponsible jack wagon did something stupid back in the day. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 10:01:21 AM

I think there are more jobs today versus 1920 where you can basically slide by doing little.  Government of course was a lot smaller back then.  Many people lived with no contact with Federal government beyond the post office.  Few had to file taxes.  If you worked for a living, you worked.  There would have been white collar jobs of course, but I bet nearly all of them worked also, accountants, lawyers, architects, whatever.

My kids experienced the same thing I did in their old jobs, a lot of people who had meetings and did emails and little else.  Newly hired folks come in to set the world on fire, but that won't last if they see lazy incompetents being promoted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 10:18:23 AM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 09:57:24 AM

This isn't that surprising?

Not that all of them are particularly wise or that they couldn't be packaged into more efficent permits. But I'm sure in the process of developing, developers have managed to find well more than 37 different ways to cause some kind of problem to the area around the development.

Obviously I don't live in that world, but I'd assume it's sort of like a piling up of situations like when you go into a park and see a weird sign (i.e. "Don't eat the dirt, it contains fertilizer") because some irresponsible jack wagon did something stupid back in the day.

That's not possible, even if they wanted to. Planning commission meetings with public participation render this point moot. And then for construction?

Nobody wants to commit an NPDES violation. Trust me, it's ugly, and they all know it is.

Are there problems sometimes? Sure there are. Nothing is perfect. But, for government at all levels to put a guy through 18 months of limbo (and paying interest) is ludicrous at best, and criminal at worst.

I haven't even talked about moving goalposts yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 19, 2020, 10:50:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 08:22:30 AM

The regulations have cleaned up our air and water measurably, and importantly, though I'm sure inefficiently.  I imagine a modern car with 100% gasoline and no cats would provide superior mileage and power versus current engines, and be cheaper as well.  Imagine you had a choice between two cars, one with current emissions equipment and one without.  Most would take the latter.

The VW diesel scandal is a good example of this. VW knew that their customers wanted performance, so they scammed the emissions testing so they could boost performance in the real world but detect the test pattern and cut emissions just for the test.

The people want to believe their car is clean, but if it performs better than a similar-spec clean car from another brand, they'd rather have it and not ask questions about how.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 11:13:25 AM

What VW did was contrive a way to avoid using the urea injection systems in other Diesels.  It wasn't as much about performance as avoiding an extra thing to be serviced every 10,000 miles or so.  The car mags at the time wrote about how they could possibly do this, and the answer was by cheating.

Upper management told lower level folks to design the engine so as not to need the urea, and the easiest way to do it was to  detect when the emissions testing was happening and put then engine into a low emissions mode that would not have been consumer friendly at all.  It was brilliant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 11:16:26 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/mtTfYfK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 11:42:02 AM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 09:57:24 AM

But I'm sure in the process of developing, developers have managed to find well more than 37 different ways to cause some kind of problem to the area around the development.

Good point the community in which I reside about 10 yrs back put millions into the storm sewer updating,pumps,retaining tanks,overflow pools,etc.I live 2 miles from a Great Lake our water bill is 3X what it use to be and this is infuriating as 5 of the last 7 days it's been a deluge.Problem is years ago shortcuts were taken here/there and a lot of storm and sanitary lines were merged or routed and laid improperly.Folks all over have had water in their basements or 1st floors and it just wasn't muddy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 11:57:44 AM

Some have speculated that the lowered output from the sun could result in a “Little Ice Age”, similar to the one that occurred between the 14th and 19th century and happened concurrently with mountain glacier expansion in the European Alps, New Zealand, and Alaska among other locations, and lower temperatures across the northern hemisphere.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/sun-solar-minimum-effects-space-earth-ice-age-a9519986.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/sun-solar-minimum-effects-space-earth-ice-age-a9519986.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 12:04:46 PM

That sux wasn't looking forward to 90s + all summer but like to start having some sun and 60s-70s for a change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 12:12:23 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 11:42:02 AM

Good point the community in which I reside about 10 yrs back put millions into the storm sewer updating,pumps,retaining tanks,overflow pools,etc.I live 2 miles from a Great Lake our water bill is 3X what it use to be and this is infuriating as 5 of the last 7 days it's been a deluge.Problem is years ago shortcuts were taken here/there and a lot of storm and sanitary lines were merged or routed and laid improperly.Folks all over have had water in their basements or 1st floors and it just wasn't muddy

That's government "working", Mr. N., not private developers.

Storm sewers and sanitary sewers were customarily combined, until the late '60's/early '70's or so. It has been prohibited just about everywhere I know of, since then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 12:16:52 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 11:57:44 AM

Some have speculated that the lowered output from the sun could result in a “Little Ice Age”, similar to the one that occurred between the 14th and 19th century and happened concurrently with mountain glacier expansion in the European Alps, New Zealand, and Alaska among other locations, and lower temperatures across the northern hemisphere.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/sun-solar-minimum-effects-space-earth-ice-age-a9519986.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/sun-solar-minimum-effects-space-earth-ice-age-a9519986.html)

This is correct, we have been in a period of reduced solar activity for some time now, and yet 2020 is probably going to be the hottest year on record.

Remember, we have a greater than 95% confidence that ALL of the warming in the last 60 years is due to man made climate change.  A big reason for this is because we have ruled out every other possible scenario we can think of.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 12:19:12 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 12:12:23 PM

That's government "working", Mr. N., not private developers.

Storm sewers and sanitary sewers were customarily combined, until the late '60's/early '70's or so. It has been prohibited just about everywhere I know of, since then.

Believe private contactors did most the work on the house lots.Either way i'm not sure it was always shady inspectors as not enough of them were employed with the amount of building going on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 12:20:27 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:05:53 AM

My point has been that the people who go into politics are not somehow better, more moral, more hardworking and energetic than all those scoundrels in private business you have encountered.  Who knows?  The EPA inspector might have been in on the scam.  Might have been taking a little under the table to never even look at the meter.
Ever been to a post office and waited half an hour while the employees behind the counter were taking their sweet time with everything they did?  Those kind of people can end up working for the EPA too.  And it's almost impossible to fire them.

Incompetence happens in private and government industry.  

And I've never been in a post office for more than 10 minutes, despite the fact I go there almost daily.  :)

Now my experience with Verizon, on the other hand >:(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 12:23:39 PM

 The fifth IPCC report (https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/#) further strengthened this to: “It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.”

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ (https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/)


(https://i.imgur.com/cqi0HIO.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 12:24:26 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 12:16:52 PM

This is correct, we have been in a period of reduced solar activity for some time now, and yet 2020 is probably going to be the hottest year on record.

 N.E.Ohio says horse puckey

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 12:34:08 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 07:03:52 AM

That was my experience, working for the government. I couldn't wait to get out.

And those kinds of people do work for the EPA. That agency has 15,000 people in it.

Every state has it's own EPA too. Some call it DNR. Illinois has both an EPA and a DNR, because it can?? Those two have conflicting regulations on many things, which hurts permitting. Add in the next layer of the Army Corps permit...

I did a job last year in Lake County, IL and between Federal, State and Local, the developer was required to pull 37 different permits related to the site work. THIRTY SEVEN.

The government is not here to help. It's here to exist.

This is where you and I will disagree.

I absolutely think it is the government's job to protect and serve its citizens.  Fire, Police, Military, Education, Environmental protection, building codes, transportation, the postal service, social security, medicare, worker safety, the legal system -- all of these have been positive government programs.

And I've dealt with more red tape and ridiculousness from government organizations than you would believe possible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 12:38:38 PM

well, what the government's job is.......... what it's supposed to be doing

and what the Government actually does, or gets accomplished 

can be two very different things

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 12:40:02 PM

The US has more people incarcerated than any country on earth, I don't really view the "legal system" as a success story.  We also have far more lawyers than engineers unlike say Japan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 12:40:53 PM

Here a firetruck has to make a run if an ambulance is called.  I think that policy is widespread.  The firetrucks roar by our house often and they told us 95% were for ambulance runs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 12:52:11 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 12:24:26 PM

N.E.Ohio says horse puckey

I will email the IPCC right now and let them know that global warming is a sham because it is cool in N.E. Ohio today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 12:56:20 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 12:38:38 PM

well, what the government's job is.......... what it's supposed to be doing

and what the Government actually does, or gets accomplished

can be two very different things

Yep.  99+% of the time our government actually does a pretty decent job.  But that 1% gets a lot of attention.*

*Disclaimer - I pulled this 99% figure out of my butt.  But certainly the vast majority of the time they do a good job.  Some may disagree, but I rarely have seen data to support that position.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 12:59:52 PM

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/new-global-co2-emissions-numbers-are-they-re-not-good (https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/new-global-co2-emissions-numbers-are-they-re-not-good)

So, meanwhile, CO2 emissions keep going up, globally, and a lot in China and India.  I think we need another meeting to talk about it, perhaps this time in say Bora Bora.  The movie stars so concerned about this can at least be comfortable giving interviews.  The various delegates can meet and relax a bit outside of meetings to clear their minds and contrive some completely useless pieces of paper expressing DEEP concern.  They can plead with world leaders to DO MORE!!!!  And most WLs will of course nod pensively and say they do plan to do more, so they sign a piece of paper saying they will be carbon neutral by 2050.

Everyone is happy.  In another year they can frown about how global CO2 emissions continue to rise and vow to redouble their efforts to sign more papers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 01:01:08 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 12:40:02 PM

The US has more people incarcerated than any country on earth, I don't really view the "legal system" as a success story.  We also have far more lawyers than engineers unlike say Japan.

I'm no expert, but it looks that way on the surface.  Almost 0.75% of the US population is incarcerated, and the next closest country is Russia.  They have 0.6% of their population incarcerated.  Then Ukraine, which is about HALF of Russia's level.

I don't know enough about it beyond those basic numbers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:01:47 PM

I would say government does a half decent job perhaps 25% of the time.  Maybe.  I'm being generous.

I see repeated corruption especially at the city level when the mayor's wife for example "runs a charity" which gets large donations from the folks how get the garbage contract owned by the mayor's cousin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 01:07:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:01:47 PM

I would say government does a half decent job perhaps 25% of the time.  Maybe.  I'm being generous.

I see repeated corruption especially at the city level when the mayor's wife for example "runs a charity" which gets large donations from the folks how get the garbage contract owned by the mayor's cousin.

You are.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 01:09:41 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 12:19:12 PM

Believe private contactors did most the work on the house lots.Either way i'm not sure it was always shady inspectors as not enough of them were employed with the amount of building going on

Private contractors (almost) always do the actual construction. 

The government hires (very expensive) consultants to do the design. Those big firms mostly suck, kinda like big government sucks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:10:32 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 09:51:22 AM

OK. So are millennials part of a trend of a drop in hardworking-ness and taking responsibility. Like they do it less than your generation, which did it less than the previous generation and so on and so forth? Or are most generations about at the same level, and millennials just took a dip?

Heh!  You're like a dog with a bone on this.
Here's my point, and I didn't make it with the intent of starting a debate about millennials: Millennials may have 2-points higher IQ than their parents do, but IQ is not the most important thing in the world, and they should learn that.
However, in general, I think that we have become less-hard-working, less resilient, and less willing to stick to difficult tasks after initial disappointment.
I've taught AP U.S. History to high school students for 11 of the past 13 years, and that is a general trend that seems evident to me.  It's most evident when increasing numbers switch out of the course after they get a "C" on the first exam.  Most of my fellow teachers seem to think the same.  We all at least think we see the growing problem of parents protecting their children from failure.  They've gone beyond the stereotype of "helicopter parents"; now we have "bulldozer parents."
And obviously I'm not talking about millennials here.
What are the post-millennials called?  Post-Millennials?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 19, 2020, 01:13:24 PM

Obviously this is subjective, but the US could certainly become a less corrupt and more effective government. Of course, it's easier for that to be the case with smaller countries, but getting back to the levels of Canada would be an improvement....

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2019/results/table (https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2019/results/table)
https://govdata360.worldbank.org/indicators/h580f9aa5?country=BRA&indicator=388&viz=line_chart&years=1996,2018 (https://govdata360.worldbank.org/indicators/h580f9aa5?country=BRA&indicator=388&viz=line_chart&years=1996,2018)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:17:31 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 12:56:20 PM

Yep.  99+% of the time our government actually does a pretty decent job.  But that 1% gets a lot of attention.*

*Disclaimer - I pulled this 99% figure out of my butt.  But certainly the vast majority of the time they do a good job.  Some may disagree, but I rarely have seen data to support that position.

Heh!  I'd say 50% on a good day.  And I've got just as much data to support my position as you do yours.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 01:18:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:01:47 PM

I would say government does a half decent job perhaps 25% of the time.  Maybe.  I'm being generous.

I see repeated corruption especially at the city level when the mayor's wife for example "runs a charity" which gets large donations from the folks how get the garbage contract owned by the mayor's cousin.

Teachers are government.  Most of them do a good job.
Ditto with police officers, fire fighters, military, etc. etc. etc.

Care to recalculate your "half decent" 25% number?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 01:36:07 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:17:31 PM

Heh!  I'd say 50% on a good day.  And I've got just as much data to support my position as you do yours.  :)

50% is easily debunked.

I have data.

Let's do local and state first:
7 million public education workers in the US.
2.4 million protective service workers.
2 million higher education workers
about 1 million library workers
about 1 million transportation workers
about a half million public utilities workers
--and millions more.

Now Federal:


(https://i.imgur.com/mfUVgdn.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:43:44 PM

Yeah, if I include the teachers in my experience, I would have to drop my 25% down to 15%, good point.

I remember tutoring future teachers when I was in school in Astronomy.  My impression is they wanted to be teachers because they couldn't do much else.

They were cute though.

My Marine friends tell story after story of the general stupidity of the military.  They will stick up for each other despite calling each other rather vile names at times.  It's entertaining.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 01:46:01 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:43:44 PM

Yeah, if I include the teachers in my experience, I would have to drop my 25% down to 15%, good point.

I remember tutoring future teachers when I was in school in Astronomy.  My impression is they wanted to be teachers because they couldn't do much else.

They were cute though.

My Marine friends tell story after story of the general stupidity of the military.  They will stick up for each other despite calling each other rather vile names at times.  It's entertaining.

As does my Marine son. He went in wanting to make a career of it, and he could have. Just couldn't take the BS parts of it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:52:02 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 01:18:52 PM

Teachers are government.  Most of them do a good job.
Ditto with police officers, fire fighters, military, etc. etc. etc.

Care to recalculate your "half decent" 25% number?

Your post was to CD, but I'll add my $0.02.

I spent 20 years in the U.S. Army and I just finished my 21st year in public education.
I'll stick with my "50% on a good day."
At least the armed forces have to demonstrate every once in a while that they can fight a war (although lately they haven't had to demonstrate that they can win one).

Public schools seldom have to demonstrate that they are doing a good job in anything other than athletics.  When the voters get fed up, and statewide testing is imposed to see how the schools are doing, the public education lobby--made up of the district superintendents, school boards, teachers' unions, and the state education department--work to undermine confidence in the testing to the point that the testing regimen is soon diluted into meaninglessness.

In addition, I have never seen official letters, policies, announcements, etc., so illiterate as the ones I have seen in public education.  Here's the tiniest of examples.  Our school busses carry the inspirational exhortation, "GO [TEAM NAME]!"  With no comma after "GO."  I have pointed this out, but even the English teachers don't care, much less the administration.  So our busses drive around town advertising the fact that we don't care enough to properly punctuate a simple 3-word imperative.
Of course, I must concede that Disney did something like this with Who Framed Roger Rabbit.

For reference, I teach in a high school that is in the top 5% of public high schools in the state.  Statewide, there are 100 students each year named to the Academic All-State list.  We have three of those students this year, and that's a normal number for us.  In my 13 years at this school, we have had between two and four every year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:53:56 PM

How would anyone here rate Amtrack for "goodness"?  Maybe the Acela line is decent.  The FDA?  The PTO?  The EPA?  OSHA?  The DoD?  The DoEd and DoEnergy?

How about the gasohol program I mentioned previously?  The CDC here recently botched a rather time critical test, and they have/had a pretty good rep.  As I think of Federal agencies in my experience, I don't get a warm fuzzy feeling.  I could mention the various National Labs again with whom I had dealings.  I got friendly with several of the scientists at Sandia and Los Alamos.  They had almost complete freedom to work on anything they wanted, there was no real oversight or accountability.  They couldn't be fired.  They all had stories of "Joe" who almost never even came to work but didn't get fired.

I'm thinking I'm being too optimistic with my adjusted percentage, and it won't go up.

I won't even mention Congress and the Administration .... well, there I did it again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:56:45 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 01:36:07 PM

50% is easily debunked.

I have data.

Let's do local and state first:
7 million public education workers in the US.
2.4 million protective service workers.
2 million higher education workers
about 1 million library workers
about 1 million transportation workers
about a half million public utilities workers
--and millions more.

Now Federal:


[img width=500 height=332.983]https://i.imgur.com/mfUVgdn.jpg[/img]

That doesn't debunk anything.  It just shows how many public employees we have, not whether they are doing good work.  If anything, it might raise questions about whether or not we're getting our money's worth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 02:00:08 PM

Well, he does have data.  I know don't know what it means in terms of efficiency, but it is data.  Perhaps for some large numbers= efficiency.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 02:02:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:53:56 PM

How would anyone here rate Amtrack for "goodness"?  Maybe the Acela line is decent.  The FDA?  The PTO?  The EPA?  OSHA?  The DoD?  The DoEd and DoEnergy?

How about the gasohol program I mentioned previously?  The CDC here recently botched a rather time critical test, and they have/had a pretty good rep.  As I think of Federal agencies in my experience, I don't get a warm fuzzy feeling.  I could mention the various National Labs again with whom I had dealings.  I got friendly with several of the scientists at Sandia and Los Alamos.  They had almost complete freedom to work on anything they wanted, there was no real oversight or accountability.  They couldn't be fired.  They all had stories of "Joe" who almost never even came to work but didn't get fired.

I'm thinking I'm being too optimistic with my adjusted percentage, and it won't go up.

I won't even mention Congress and the Administration .... well, there I did it again.

Heh!  The guy who taught AP U.S. History before I did was a young guy named Joe.  He drove a Chrysler 300, which in 2007 was a pretty cool car if you like domestic 4-door sedans.  About twice a week he didn't make it to his first class on time.  And I'm not saying that he was 5 minutes late.  It was more like 45 minutes.  His students had a 0% pass rate on the AP Exam.  He did get let go at the end of the year, so there was that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 02:05:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 01:43:44 PM

Yeah, if I include the teachers in my experience, I would have to drop my 25% down to 15%, good point.

I remember tutoring future teachers when I was in school in Astronomy.  My impression is they wanted to be teachers because they couldn't do much else.

my brother is in the business of the educating of educators

this is close to his opinion
there are obviously some very competent folks that go into teaching that are very good at what they do, but it's not a high percentage 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 02:06:58 PM

Education majors generally have the lowest average ACT/SAT score of all the majors at a given institution of higher education.

Neither of my degrees is in Education.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 02:07:54 PM

bingo

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 02:17:40 PM

I think upon reflection I'm down to around 7.04% on this assessment, but I'm awaiting more "data".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 02:32:43 PM

Water flows from the Chicago Waterway (A.K.A. open sewer) System, into Lake Michigan.


(https://i.imgur.com/5JtSNlP.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 02:34:26 PM

something around 10% seems reasonable to me

my father worked for the county roads department for 36 years

built almost every wooden bridge on every gravel road in the county

he never took an afternoon off , but he was constantly frustrated with almost everything around him causing everything but efficiency

There are plenty of good folks working for the government.  Unfortunately, they are either held back by factors out of their control or succumb to the daily grind of slackers and stupidity around them and give up the good fight.

I'm sure there are a few government departments that are working as well oiled machines and operate well compared to the private sector.  I just don't know of any.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:02:40 PM

The "climate" thing is a decent example of how effective governments are.  The confront a large problem, they have meetings, and sign agreements, and wring their hands and sign more agreements.   They spend money on various projects to feature as to how much progress they are making.

And then the numbers come back over time, and are bad, so they wring their hands again and have more meetings and sign more pieces of paper.  Is ANY country really taking this seriously?  ANYWHERE?  Some buy power from neighbors so they can brag about it.  France at least has a high percentage of nuclear power, but that predates this situation.  Germany closes it's nuclear plants and ... burns coal while building solar arrays and wind turbines in a relative frenzy.  Germany is probably the best case situation and they are falling behind.

t a glance

Quote

• Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany declined by almost 36 % between 1990 and 2019.
• Germany aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % by 2020 and by at least 55 % by 2030 compared to 1990 emission levels. Greenhouse gas neutrality is to be achieved to a high degree by 2050.
• Without massive and rapid efforts the set targets will not be achieved.
• The Federal Government intends to reach the climate protection targets with the help of the ‘Climate Change Act’, the ‘Climate Action Programme 2020’ and the ‘Climate Action Plan 2050’.

(https://i.imgur.com/rtUgBvL.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 03:14:31 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:52:02 PM

Your post was to CD, but I'll add my $0.02.

I spent 20 years in the U.S. Army and I just finished my 21st year in public education.
I'll stick with my "50% on a good day."
At least the armed forces have to demonstrate every once in a while that they can fight a war (although lately they haven't had to demonstrate that they can win one).

Public schools seldom have to demonstrate that they are doing a good job in anything other than athletics.  When the voters get fed up, and statewide testing is imposed to see how the schools are doing, the public education lobby--made up of the district superintendents, school boards, teachers' unions, and the state education department--work to undermine confidence in the testing to the point that the testing regimen is soon diluted into meaninglessness.

In addition, I have never seen official letters, policies, announcements, etc., so illiterate as the ones I have seen in public education.  Here's the tiniest of examples.  Our school busses carry the inspirational exhortation, "GO [TEAM NAME]!"  With no comma after "GO."  I have pointed this out, but even the English teachers don't care, much less the administration.  So our busses drive around town advertising the fact that we don't care enough to properly punctuate a simple 3-word imperative.
Of course, I must concede that Disney did something like this with Who Framed Roger Rabbit.

For reference, I teach in a high school that is in the top 5% of public high schools in the state.  Statewide, there are 100 students each year named to the Academic All-State list.  We have three of those students this year, and that's a normal number for us.  In my 13 years at this school, we have had between two and four every year.

I'm not surprised.  OK ranks 45th in education, and has led the nation in "per pupil" education cuts for the last 5 years in a row.  This despite the fact that teachers had to strike in order to get a raise.

Investing in education pays for itself.  I will never understand this.

Thank you for being a teacher and a veteran.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:16:41 PM

The US spends more per capita on K-12 education than all but 5 small countries in the world, Austria is the largest of the bunch.  We spend more than Germany, France, UK, Japan, South Korea ....

Maybe we should spend more?  Or is our spending just not very efficient because we spend a lot of it on administration and filling out papers?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 03:18:14 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 02:34:26 PM

something around 10% seems reasonable to me

my father worked for the county roads department for 36 years

built almost every wooden bridge on every gravel road in the county

he never took an afternoon off , but he was constantly frustrated with almost everything around him causing everything but efficiency

There are plenty of good folks working for the government.  Unfortunately, they are either held back by factors out of their control or succumb to the daily grind of slackers and stupidity around them and give up the good fight.

I'm sure there are a few government departments that are working as well oiled machines and operate well compared to the private sector.  I just don't know of any.

replace "government" with "corporate world" and it's the same exact thing.

20% of the workforce does 80% of the work, and the Peter principle totally applies to both.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:22:29 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 03:18:14 PM

replace "government" with "corporate world" and it's the same exact thing.

20% of the workforce does 80% of the work, and the Peter principle totally applies to both.

Does this mean you revised your percentage down to 10%?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 03:38:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:16:41 PM

The US spends more per capita on K-12 education than all but 5 small countries in the world, Austria is the largest of the bunch.  We spend more than Germany, France, UK, Japan, South Korea ....

Maybe we should spend more?  Or is our spending just not very efficient because we spend a lot of it on administration and filling out papers?

Lots of reasons for this.  You have to dig into the data to find more.

1.  The United States doesn't exactly compare well, because schools are mostly funded via local and state taxes.  This means that poor states and counties receive a tiny fraction of a more wealthy school district.  A suburb of San Francisco may spend $30,000 per student, while a poor county in Alabama may only spend $4,000 per student.  The average of both is $17,000, but that doesn't accurately describe the situation.
2.  Education is a much bigger than teacher salaries.  I can't think of another nation that has school sponsored sports, for example. 
3.  Most of these other countries have socialized health care.  In the United States, our education system often substitutes for this.  For example, our schools provide specialized services for the severely disabled.  In many other countries these students would have a nurse supplied by their health provider.  (This isn't a minor number, either.  Special education often costs 5x as much per student)

Basically - we classify a lot of costs under education that other countries wouldn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:41:34 PM

Like I said, maybe spending EVEN MORE is the answer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 03:51:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:22:29 PM

Does this mean you revised your percentage down to 10%?

I actually think most people in both corporate and government do a good job.  There are bad apples in both.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 03:57:50 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 03:18:14 PM

replace "government" with "corporate world" and it's the same exact thing.

20% of the workforce does 80% of the work, and the Peter principle totally applies to both.

I can agree to an extent.  Depends on the definition of "corporate world"

some corporations are obviously top heavy and inefficient - some that are pushing the leading edge such as Elon Musk and Apple, probably not

perhaps we should not allow mergers of large corporations to make even larger corporations

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 04:03:29 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 02:06:58 PM

Education majors generally have the lowest average ACT/SAT score of all the majors at a given institution of higher education.

Neither of my degrees is in Education.

Let's look at the data and see what it says.

Keep in mind that many of the majors below will end up in education, as you did.

(https://i.imgur.com/HJ5T17A.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 04:07:42 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:41:34 PM

Like I said, maybe spending EVEN MORE is the answer.

Um no.if they want to take it out of the inflated defense budget and give it to inflated school amdns,fine.They have already ruled how schools are funded in Ohio unconstitutional.Yet if you are a section 8 renter that doesn't even pay into the system but get's to vote whether home owners do that's a problem we have the highest percapita tax% in the most populous county in Ohio.The law has to change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 04:10:52 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 04:07:42 PM

Um no.if they want to take it out of the inflated defense budget and give it to inflated school amdns,fine.They have already ruled how schools are funded in Ohio unconstitutional.Yet if you are a section 8 renter that doesn't even pay into the system but get's to vote whether home owners do that's a problem we have the highest percapita tax% in the most populous county in Ohio.The law has to change

I'd be ok if we just got rid of Ohio...:)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 04:28:38 PM

A funny fact is I am not qualified to teach high school here, but I am to teach college.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:10:19 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 03:14:31 PM

I'm not surprised.  OK ranks 45th in education, and has led the nation in "per pupil" education cuts for the last 5 years in a row.  This despite the fact that teachers had to strike in order to get a raise.

Investing in education pays for itself.  I will never understand this.

Thank you for being a teacher and a veteran.

"45th in education"--does that mean per-pupil expenditure?

If so, there's obviously a bias in favor of high-cost-of-living states, because they have to spend more to get the same result.  Oklahoma is not a high-cost-of-living state.  I suspect that we would rank in the middle 1/3 if expenditures were adjusted for cost of living.

We've got something like the 5th-lowest average score on the ACT (2019 scores).  Which seems very bad.  However, we test 100% of our students (paid by the state), one of only 15 states to do so.  I did not know this until I just checked.  Unless my memory is faulty (a distinct possibility), we didn't do that in 2018.  Last time I checked our scores against the national average, we were testing about 87%, and our average score was 0.1 below the national average.  Getting that last 13% tested has caused our average score to go down 2 points.
Teachers got a big pay raise a year ago.  For 2019 (https://www.zippia.com/advice/teacher-salary-by-state/), we ranked 43rd in "adjusted average salary," at $48,295.  By comparison, California ranks 36th at $50,787.  I imagine that $48k-plus goes further in Oklahoma than $51k-minus does in California.  BTW, Vermont and Maine rank 45th and 46th, respectively.

CD has made the point, but investing in education doesn't pay for itself if the product is not good.  All things being equal, more money invested is better, but all things are not equal.  I've seen two different school systems respond to increased funding by scheduling more boondoggle trips for administrators.

Before my current job, I taught in a middle school that was aspiring to be certified in the International Baccalaureate Middle Years Program (IB-MYP).  I was with a group of teachers who went to Houston for the workshops and seminars we needed to make sure we were teaching in the right way and aiming at the right target.  Two years later, because more money was available, other teachers and our principal went to Montreal for the training.  The principal took a private room instead of doubling up, and she attended no workshops, because it was Montreal and she wanted to go shopping.

In my current job, our school joined the Confucius Institute 7 or 8 years ago, and the Superintendent, the principal, the athletics director, and the activities director went to China.  It was a junket.  There wasn't one thing about Chinese culture that we incorporated into our curriculum beyond having a Chinese language class for a couple of years.  We're no longer a member of the Confucius Institute, for which I am thankful, because I think its primary purpose is propaganda.

Thanks for your final comments.  Despite the bungling and incompetence I have seen, I've enjoyed both of those careers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:27:30 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 04:03:29 PM

Let's look at the data and see what it says.

Keep in mind that many of the majors below will end up in education, as you did.

[img width=275.98 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/HJ5T17A.png[/img]

Well, not as bad as I thought.
Still, most of those "majors" below Education are ones that you might be unlikely to see at a school that includes a college of education.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 05:31:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 03:57:50 PM

I can agree to an extent.  Depends on the definition of "corporate world"

some corporations are obviously top heavy and inefficient - some that are pushing the leading edge such as Elon Musk and Apple, probably not

perhaps we should not allow mergers of large corporations to make even larger corporations

On Elon Musk, I'm not sure if he's actually on the edge or is just very good at getting attention.

I think Apple is certianly good with some kinds of efficiency (thinking international supply chains and such), but I bet they have plenty of those moments of waste, they just have more cushion. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:32:47 PM

Theoretically, big corporations should be more efficient because they can enjoy economies of scale.  But theory is not always matched by reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 05:37:06 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:10:19 PM

"45th in education"--does that mean per-pupil expenditure?

If so, there's obviously a bias in favor of high-cost-of-living states, because they have to spend more to get the same result.  Oklahoma is not a high-cost-of-living state.  I suspect that we would rank in the middle 1/3 if expenditures were adjusted for cost of living.

We've got something like the 5th-lowest average score on the ACT (2019 scores).  Which seems very bad.  However, we test 100% of our students (paid by the state), one of only 15 states to do so.  I did not know this until I just checked.  Unless my memory is faulty (a distinct possibility), we didn't do that in 2018.  Last time I checked our scores against the national average, we were testing about 87%, and our average score was 0.1 below the national average.  Getting that last 13% tested has caused our average score to go down 2 points.
Teachers got a big pay raise a year ago.  For 2019 (https://www.zippia.com/advice/teacher-salary-by-state/), we ranked 43rd in "adjusted average salary," at $48,295.  By comparison, California ranks 36th at $50,787.  I imagine that $48k-plus goes further in Oklahoma than $51k-minus does in California.  BTW, Vermont and Maine rank 45th and 46th, respectively.

CD has made the point, but investing in education doesn't pay for itself if the product is not good.  All things being equal, more money invested is better, but all things are not equal.  I've seen two different school systems respond to increased funding by scheduling more boondoggle trips for administrators.

Before my current job, I taught in a middle school that was aspiring to be certified in the International Baccalaureate Middle Years Program (IB-MYP).  I was with a group of teachers who went to Houston for the workshops and seminars we needed to make sure we were teaching in the right way and aiming at the right target.  Two years later, because more money was available, other teachers and our principal went to Montreal for the training.  The principal took a private room instead of doubling up, and she attended no workshops, because it was Montreal and she wanted to go shopping.

In my current job, our school joined the Confucius Institute 7 or 8 years ago, and the Superintendent, the principal, the athletics director, and the activities director went to China.  It was a junket.  There wasn't one thing about Chinese culture that we incorporated into our curriculum beyond having a Chinese language class for a couple of years.  We're no longer a member of the Confucius Institute, for which I am thankful, because I think its primary purpose is propaganda.

Thanks for your final comments.  Despite the bungling and incompetence I have seen, I've enjoyed both of those careers.

OK ranked 45th by US News & World Report.  

“adjusted average salary” is already adjusted for cost of living, I believe. I say this because OK’s starting teacher salary is $32K, while California’s is $47K. 


Professional development for teachers is great, even though some may waste their time. Most will benefit. 

Cheaping out on education is a short term gain, but a long term loss.  Better educated people make more money, are less dependent on social programs, are far less likely to become incarcerated, They pay more taxes, etc etc etc. 

Just seems silly to cut education funding 5 years in a row during a booming economy. But OK did it....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 05:37:37 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 01:10:32 PM

Heh!  You're like a dog with a bone on this.
Here's my point, and I didn't make it with the intent of starting a debate about millennials: Millennials may have 2-points higher IQ than their parents do, but IQ is not the most important thing in the world, and they should learn that.
However, in general, I think that we have become less-hard-working, less resilient, and less willing to stick to difficult tasks after initial disappointment.
I've taught AP U.S. History to high school students for 11 of the past 13 years, and that is a general trend that seems evident to me.  It's most evident when increasing numbers switch out of the course after they get a "C" on the first exam.  Most of my fellow teachers seem to think the same.  We all at least think we see the growing problem of parents protecting their children from failure.  They've gone beyond the stereotype of "helicopter parents"; now we have "bulldozer parents."
And obviously I'm not talking about millennials here.
What are the post-millennials called?  Post-Millennials?

I stick to this because I feel like it glosses over a lot. (Gen Z maybe)

I wonder if the trend of switch outs aligns with different approaches for grades and such. Getting a C used to be a normal thing, now it's bad. The payoff for gritting through an AP class is more personal than tangible, and we've built things on such a result-oriented axis. 

When I was in college, there was some mark on your transcript if you dropped after the first two weeks. I don't think it mattered in real life, though I recall very much not wanting one (I still have stress dreams where I have to take one, but that's better than the F I'm in line for). I also remember gritting out bio one and JUST barely sneaking out with a B, like by half a percent with a flat C on the final. Maybe sucking that up made me more resilient? That class sucked all around. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 05:40:03 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:32:47 PM

Theoretically, big corporations should be more efficient because they can enjoy economies of scale.  But theory is not always matched by reality.

This time, Substitute corporation with “government”.  Hah

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 19, 2020, 05:44:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 04:28:38 PM

A funny fact is I am not qualified to teach high school here, but I am to teach college.

Think about what requiring a "teaching credential" does...

It limits the pool of available teachers. You could have a math whiz who is an engineer but got tired of corporate life and decided he wanted to teach HS algebra and calculus. He could be a great communicator and really excited about it. He could have a master's or PhD in engineering and more than enough mathematics acumen to do it. And he'd be denied in most states without a "teaching credential". 

So what does reducing the available pool of teachers do? It means supply of teachers is artificially restricted relative to demand, and thus improves the likelihood of increasing teacher salaries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:52:27 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 05:37:06 PM

OK ranked 45th by US News & World Report. 

“adjusted average salary” is already adjusted for cost of living, I believe. I say this because OK’s starting teacher salary is $32K, while California’s is $47K.


Professional development for teachers is great, even though some may waste their time. Most will benefit.

Cheaping out on education is a short term gain, but a long term loss.  Better educated people make more money, are less dependent on social programs, are far less likely to become incarcerated, They pay more taxes, etc etc etc.

Just seems silly to cut education funding 5 years in a row during a booming economy. But OK did it....

As I said, if all other things are equal, more education funding should be a good thing, resulting in better outcomes.  But all other things are not always equal.  Do I wish Oklahoma spent more on public education?  Yes, I do.  But I also wish we spend more on roads and highways, as well as other things.  We have an economy that is diversifying but still largely built on oil production and refining and natural gas production, and prices have fallen for those products in recent years.  (Our economy hasn't been "booming" since the falling oil prices of the 1980s.)  So there's only so much state revenue that can be squeezed out of the taxpayers, and education takes its turn in line for funding.

And I believe that activities that the taxpayers fund should be held accountable.  The education establishment here has not been very willing to be held accountable.  The individual districts want more money from the state, but then they complain about the strings that are attached to the money.

Can you cite the source for the cuts five years in a row?

P.S. OAM's posts about American Indian lands remind me of something else.  Oklahoma has a lot of tribally owned lands.  That land does not produce revenue for the state and local governments to the degree that it would if it were privately owned.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:56:22 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 05:40:03 PM

This time, Substitute corporation with “government”.  Hah

So, whose point does that make, yours or mine?  ~???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:58:34 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 05:37:37 PM

I stick to this because I feel like it glosses over a lot. (Gen Z maybe)

I wonder if the trend of switch outs aligns with different approaches for grades and such. Getting a C used to be a normal thing, now it's bad. The payoff for gritting through an AP class is more personal than tangible, and we've built things on such a result-oriented axis.

When I was in college, there was some mark on your transcript if you dropped after the first two weeks. I don't think it mattered in real life, though I recall very much not wanting one (I still have stress dreams where I have to take one, but that's better than the F I'm in line for). I also remember gritting out bio one and JUST barely sneaking out with a B, like by half a percent with a flat C on the final. Maybe sucking that up made me more resilient? That class sucked all around.

I feel like I'm missing something here and I'm not sure if you want a response.
Maybe I don't know what it is that I'm glossing over that I didn't already stipulate that I was glossing over.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 06:17:46 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:58:34 PM

I feel like I'm missing something here and I'm not sure if you want a response.
Maybe I don't know what it is that I'm glossing over that I didn't already stipulate that I was glossing over.

Oh, no real need to respond. Just the whole generation tension thing. It's by and large a broad brush situation. 

I'd much rather dig in on people and their reaction to grades. I think that's always interesting. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2020, 09:04:17 PM

So... Education is good here in the USA?

Not for the investment it takes. Not even close. The stupidity in education today makes my skin crawl.

HEY!! 

Let's have 17,000 SUPERINTENDENTS making over $300K per year, protected by UNION contracts. Then, let's hire 50 people to work under that SUPER, who will protect those knuckleheads, in the UNION, who keep the powers who be in place.

What could go wrong?

Glad my boys saw through it and decided to seek guidance from me and Mrs. 847, and educate themselves, with our help. 

They did not want to be brainwashed.

Thank God.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 10:05:26 PM

In studies I've seen, we rank in the bottom half of the industrialized world in public-education outcomes.

I think BBTS (or was in bayareabadger?) made some good points (if true) about American schools costing more because they take on more other activities, including sports and (maybe?) effectively babysitting.

We should disconnect these things from schools.  All that doing it the way that we do it is hide the cost of social services by bundling them with school budgets.  Schools do not have the appropriately trained personnel to be social workers.  Schools should be about teaching students academic subjects.  Let the departments of human services deal with the social-welfare problems.

And, as far as I'm concerned, sports could be made not part of public schools.  Then maybe we could re-emphasize gym class and graduate fewer morbidly obese 18-year-olds.

I could add that to the discussion of today's yoots vs. those of days gone by.  The armed forces have huge trouble recruiting these days because an ever-larger percentage of the shrinking numbers of HS graduates are physically unfit for military service.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 19, 2020, 10:17:34 PM

It's interesting how grades-focused high-achieving students are and then how failure is celebrated in some professional environments, especially in the tech sector.

With a few exceptions, I did quite well academically all the way through high school and got admitted to Michigan, of course, but because I never learned how to study (because I never really needed to), I struggled in college and finished with a 2.7 GPA. Part of that was also not really having my life / career goals at all figured out at that point in my life. But sure enough, I only vaguely recall getting asked about my grades and only in a few interviews until I was 2 years removed from college and not since (except for my graduate program application). More recently, I graduated with a 3.8 GPA in my graduate program (albeit that was all online and only took 1 or 2 courses at a time, most of which I was genuinely interested in).

Back to the problems in the corporate world, the key to success there is getting along well with everyone you work with, but I just didn't have the patience for all of the BS.

As for the problems in primary / secondary education, my mom retired from teaching last year but her final few years she was increasingly frustrated. The pandemic is clearly showing that remote learning is not a good option for the elementary level and only arguably for middle school (depending on how much the kids can take care of themselves and are trusted to be unsupervised). It can be useful at the high school level (especially for high-achievers), but it's still not possible for some classes, much less various clubs and activities..... Part of the problem is excessive testing but maybe that will start to go down as more colleges don't pay attention to SAT/ACT scores. Of course, with the continued decline of fertility rates, there might not be as much competition as in the past for spots at the top universities. The aftermath of the pandemic affects how this may play out, too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 10:57:54 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:56:22 PM

So, whose point does that make, yours or mine?  ~???

Exactly. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 20, 2020, 01:26:12 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 19, 2020, 04:10:52 PM

I'd be ok if we just got rid of Ohio...:)

That would affect PA tax base as we have a hell of alot of Yuengling drinkers here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 20, 2020, 01:27:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 04:28:38 PM

A funny fact is I am not qualified to teach high school here, but I am to teach college.

Toga - Toga - Toga..........

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 07:02:36 AM

We need to think about education, and how it relates to being useful later. How about more stuff on weather, climate and environment topics and less on the arts? Illinois has its minimum HS criteria:

All graduates must complete 4 years of language arts, 3 years of mathematics (including algebra I and geometry), 2 years of science, 2 years of social studies (1 must be U.S. history and government) and 1 year of either music/art/foreign language or vocational education.

Something is not right here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 20, 2020, 07:19:21 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 07:02:36 AM

We need to think about education, and how it relates to being useful later. How about more stuff on weather, climate and environment topics and less on the arts? Illinois has its minimum HS criteria:

All graduates must complete 4 years of language arts, 3 years of mathematics (including algebra I and geometry), 2 years of science, 2 years of social studies (1 must be U.S. history and government) and 1 year of either music/art/foreign language or vocational education.

Something is not right here.

Language arts is just reading and writing, which is rather important.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 07:34:27 AM

I know. 4 years of it. Only a combined 5 years of math and science is the issue.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 09:02:19 AM

My kids' HS in Cincy had an IB program because there were a lot of foreign kids in the district.  An IB Diploma is accepted in Europe as a "real diploma".  It also looks good on your college app here apparently.  It was interesting to compare those courses with the more standard AP courses, which also were available.

My guess is the IB program is basically equivalent to the college track HS courses in Europe.  And I'll note again that in Europe, only about half as many HS graduates go to college as here.  We are more egalitarian, which means we send students with academic credential below the mean to college.  They don't, they also "stream" kids from an early age.  It is not easy to get "upstreamed" in France, my step grandson is facing that now in 9th grade, about to be 10th.  His mom worries about him.  He's more artistic/design oriented and doesn't like math etc.

Europe does it differently, and by and large they educate a rather homogeneous society.  There is no "busing" of course to meet some kind of racial mix.  The schools my step grand sons attend are "all white".  There are a lot of immigrants of course from north Africa and Lebanon etc. and they live in highly segregated communities.  Their schools are all African, perhaps with a sprinkling of Asians or whatever, I don't know, but the communities are basically all African.  They do fund education nationally and the curriculum and standards are national.  They don't have a federated system as we do obviously, or not to this extent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 09:19:12 AM

Do we need a Federal Department of Education? If so, why? Does it need to be at the cabinet level?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 09:28:04 AM

My notion would be for the Feds to "make up" some of the difference in funding for school districts that simply lack an adequate tax base.  They would do nothing else.  It could be run by ten people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 09:41:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 09:28:04 AM

My notion would be for the Feds to "make up" some of the difference in funding for school districts that simply lack an adequate tax base.  They would do nothing else.  It could be run by ten people.

You mean, they could get rid of 3,990 people then?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 10:03:34 AM

You wouldn't catch me on the backside of an earthen dam like this one. No way.


Rapidly rising water overtook dams and forced the evacuation of about 10,000 people in central Michigan, where flooding struck communities along rain-swollen (https://www.chicagotribune.com/weather/ct-viz-rain-levels-map-20200518-67dxbo6hfrhfjglfh3aj6ja32q-htmlstory.html) waterways and the governor said one downtown could be “under approximately 9 feet of water" by Wednesday.

For the second time in less than 24 hours, families living along the Tittabawassee River and connected lakes in Midland County were ordered Tuesday evening to leave home. By Wednesday morning, water that was several feet high covered some streets near the river in downtown Midland, including riverside parkland, and reaching a hotel and parking lots.

The National Weather Service urged anyone near the river to seek higher ground following “castastrophic dam failures” at the Edenville Dam, about 140 miles north of Detroit, and the Sanford Dam, about seven miles downriver.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said downtown Midland, a city of 42,000 about 8 miles downstream from the Sanford Dam, faced an especially serious flooding threat. Dow Chemical Co.'s main plant sits on the city’s riverbank.

“In the next 12 to 15 hours, downtown Midland could be under approximately 9 feet of water," the governor said during a late Tuesday briefing. "We are anticipating a historic high water level.”


Whitmer declared a state of emergency for Midland County and urged residents threatened by the flooding to find a place to stay with friends or relatives or to seek out one of several shelters that opened across the county. She encouraged people to do their best to take precautions to prevent the spread of coronavirus, such as wearing a face covering and observing social distancing “to the best of your ability.”

“This is unlike anything we’ve seen in Midland County,” she said. ”If you have a family member or loved one who lives in another part of the state, go there now."
(https://www.chicagotribune.com/resizer/dab8ZHxnuNERZ0EX8weDHI4Qkjs=/800x532/top/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/7EWEVRHTZVBV7L5NNKXAIZQSGU.jpg)

Water rushes through the Edenville on May 19, 2020, in Edenville, Mich.(Katy Kildee/Midland Daily News)

(https://www.chicagotribune.com/resizer/WE-w7UHevXG5mArLOx1FyeF_QSA=/800x533/top/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/YKDSPPJURTMUY2PKQUVJIJRV7Q.aspx)

A view of a dam on Wixom Lake in Edenville, Mich., on May 19, 2020. People living along two mid-Michigan lakes and parts of a river have been evacuated following several days of heavy rain.(Kaytie Boomer/The Bay City Times)

Emergency responders went door-to-door early Tuesday morning warning residents living near the Edenville Dam of the rising water. Some residents were able to return home, only to be told to leave again following the dam’s breach several hours later. The evacuations include the towns of Edenville, Sanford and parts of Midland, according to Selina Tisdale, spokeswoman for Midland County.

“We were back at home and starting to feel comfortable that things were calming down,” said Catherine Sias, who lives about 1 mile from the Edenville Dam and first left home early Tuesday morning. “All of a sudden we heard the fire truck sirens going north toward the dam.”

Sias, 45, said emergency alerts then began coming on her cellphone and people started calling to make sure she was safe.

“While packing, there were tons of police and fire trucks going up and down the roads,” she added. “As far as I know, all of our neighbors got out.”

While driving along a jammed M-30, the state highway that’s the main road through Edenville and that crosses the river north of town, Sias saw the rushing Tittabawassee River. “It was very dramatic, very fast and full of debris,” she said.


Dow Chemical has activated its emergency operations center and will be adjusting operations as a result of current flood stage conditions, spokeswoman Rachelle Schikorra said in an email.

“Dow Michigan Operations is working with its tenants and Midland County officials and will continue to closely monitor the water levels on the Tittabawassee River,” Schikorra said.

In 2018, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission revoked the license of the company that operated the Edenville Dam due to non-compliance issues that included spillway capacity and the inability to pass the most severe flood reasonably possible in the area.

The Edenville Dam, which was built in 1924, was rated in unsatisfactory condition in 2018 by the state. 

The Sanford Dam, which was built in 1925, received a fair condition rating.

Both dams are in the process of being sold.

There were 19 high hazard dams in unsatisfactory or poor conditions in Michigan in 2018, ranking 20th among the 45 states and Puerto Rico for which The Associated Press obtained condition assessments.
Flood warnings in Michigan were issued following widespread rainfall of 4 to 7 inches since Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. Heavy runoff pushed rivers higher.


The Tittabawassee River was at 30.5 feet and rising Tuesday night — flood stage is 24 feet. It was expected to crest Wednesday at a record of about 38 feet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 10:05:46 AM

I live on a hill for a reason

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 20, 2020, 10:53:18 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 09:28:04 AM

My notion would be for the Feds to "make up" some of the difference in funding for school districts that simply lack an adequate tax base.  They would do nothing else.  It could be run by ten people.

They have that, sorta.  It's called Title 1. 

It's like trying to fix a broken bone with a band aid, but it's there... haha

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 11:19:10 AM

My cincy friends are sending me photos of flooding in our area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2020, 11:30:31 AM

What, was the Midwest feeling left out that since the murder hornets haven't traveled there yet, they wouldn't have any Maypocalypse to participate in for 2020? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 11:37:48 AM

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/859333402/catastrophic-dam-failures-in-michigan-force-thousands-to-evacuate (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/859333402/catastrophic-dam-failures-in-michigan-force-thousands-to-evacuate)

(https://i.imgur.com/o0qMbXK.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/emYjbKS.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 11:39:18 AM

All the more reason for an aggressive dam removal program.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 11:39:30 AM

had that type of flooding in Nebraska/Iowa last spring

it's not good

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 11:46:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 11:39:18 AM

All the more reason for an aggressive dam removal program.

Looks like progress is being made.

I presume once an earthen dam is topped for any period of time, it's toast, right?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 03:52:47 PM

This is why I advocate for removing damn dams (and levees).


https://www.chicagotribune.com/midwest/ct-michigan-dams-break-flooding-midland-20200520-inwsr4yerngorkkuwewuvvc2tu-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/midwest/ct-michigan-dams-break-flooding-midland-20200520-inwsr4yerngorkkuwewuvvc2tu-story.html)


9 feet of water. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 20, 2020, 07:46:27 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 09:19:12 AM

Do we need a Federal Department of Education? If so, why? Does it need to be at the cabinet level?

Is public education better now than it was before the Department of Education was created?  I doubt it.
Education is not a constitutional responsibility of the federal government.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 08:25:09 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 20, 2020, 07:46:27 PM

Is public education better now than it was before the Department of Education was created?  I doubt it.
Education is not a constitutional responsibility of the federal government.

Probably?

Not necessary because of the department of education, but it probably hasn't grown worse the past 40 years.

I'll cop to not knowing exactly what oversight it has. I suppose it could dissolve. I wonder what kind of federal money comes down and how it gets distributed. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 20, 2020, 10:41:32 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 20, 2020, 07:46:27 PM

Is public education better now than it was before the Department of Education was created?  I doubt it.
Education is not a constitutional responsibility of the federal government.

CW, what does the data say?

Literacy Rate, 1968:  98%
Literacy Rate, today:  99%

You already know that students today perform better on IQ tests, by as much as 14 points over their great grandparents.  A lot of that is due to education.

Educational opportunities for a poor black child in Alabama in 1969?  I'd like to think we've made some improvement on this front, but I'll let you dig up the data on that one.

Education is covered under the commerce clause of the constitution, and that's been held up numerous times by the supreme court.  I'm pretty sure the supreme court is constitutional.

New math?  data proves it works better than old math.
Using multiple strategies to teach literacy?  data proves it works better than just phonics.

Things are different now, that does not meant they are worse.  We are just getting grumpy and old.  haha

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 20, 2020, 11:04:01 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 08:25:09 PM

Probably?

Not necessary because of the department of education, but it probably hasn't grown worse the past 40 years.

I'll cop to not knowing exactly what oversight it has. I suppose it could dissolve. I wonder what kind of federal money comes down and how it gets distributed.

First, the Department of Education distributes title 1 funds.  This is federal money earmarked for schools in poor districts.  When people talk about getting rid of the DOE, this is usually what they are talking about*. They also issue Pell grants, student loans, and special education funding. 91% of their budget goes into these buckets.

Second, the DOE oversees school districts to prevent things like discrimination.  You know why so many people were upset back in the 1970s?   They couldn't carve out the "bad element" into their own school district anymore. 

Third, the DOE protects children.  If you are from a small town, with a small town superintendent, and they tell you to root for the Buckeyes or fail, you can either root for the Buckeyes, or you can complain to the DOE.

Fourth, the DOE holds schools to a national education standard.  There was a time, not long ago, where Alabama had their own standardized testing, and Massachusetts also had their own.  Which state do you think set lower standards?  Now, of course, we can look at standardized testing and see just how well Massachusetts compares with Alabama.

of course, they do MUCH more than this. 

*Not necessarily because they hate the poor or people of color.  There is some debate as to whether or not these funds would be used in a different way that would be more effective.  But that's politics.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 12:14:14 AM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 08:25:09 PM

Probably?

Not necessary because of the department of education, but it probably hasn't grown worse the past 40 years.

I'll cop to not knowing exactly what oversight it has. I suppose it could dissolve. I wonder what kind of federal money comes down and how it gets distributed.

It's not a huge bureaucracy.  $68 billion budget and 4,000 employees.
It could have remained a part of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW), but Jimmy Carter wanted to be an "education" president.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 12:17:58 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 20, 2020, 11:04:01 PM

First, the Department of Education distributes title 1 funds.  This is federal money earmarked for schools in poor districts.  When people talk about getting rid of the DOE, this is usually what they are talking about*. They also issue Pell grants, student loans, and special education funding. 91% of their budget goes into these buckets.

Second, the DOE oversees school districts to prevent things like discrimination.  You know why so many people were upset back in the 1970s?  They couldn't carve out the "bad element" into their own school district anymore. 

Third, the DOE protects children.  If you are from a small town, with a small town superintendent, and they tell you to root for the Buckeyes or fail, you can either root for the Buckeyes, or you can complain to the DOE.

Fourth, the DOE holds schools to a national education standard.  There was a time, not long ago, where Alabama had their own standardized testing, and Massachusetts also had their own.  Which state do you think set lower standards?  Now, of course, we can look at standardized testing and see just how well Massachusetts compares with Alabama.

of course, they do MUCH more than this. 

*Not necessarily because they hate the poor or people of color.  There is some debate as to whether or not these funds would be used in a different way that would be more effective.  But that's politics.

If the bolded part is true, I've not encountered it in 21 years of being in public education.  I have no idea what the national standard is.  Even the great reform, No Child Left Behind, didn't establish a firm national education standard as far as I know.  Are the Explore, Plan, and ACT mandated by the federal government?  Or the PSAT/SAT?  I'm not aware that they are.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 12:50:12 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 12:17:58 AM

If the bolded part is true, I've not encountered it in 21 years of being in public education.  I have no idea what the national standard is.  Even the great reform, No Child Left Behind, didn't establish a firm national education standard as far as I know.  Are the Explore, Plan, and ACT mandated by the federal government?  Or the PSAT/SAT?  I'm not aware that they are.

Ever heard of common core?  

Oh wait, some states don’t participate in that, right?  Wrong. They do. They may not take the national standard test, but the states have to administer a state test that .... Wait for it ... meets the common core standards. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 07:18:09 AM

I guess our education system is great thanks to the DoE.  


Except that has not been my experience with it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 07:48:32 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 20, 2020, 10:41:32 PM

New math?  data proves it works better than old math.

Bulljive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 07:54:49 AM

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_322.10.asp (https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_322.10.asp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 08:27:47 AM

When I was in about 4th grade, they shifted from old math to something called "New Math".  It was confusing initially, I vaguely recall we basically dropped it after a few tries and the teacher just reverted.

I hit Algebra I in 8th grade and there was no "New Math" to it at all.  I somewhat liked math, I liked Geometry the most.  I had a tough teacher in 11th grade for Trig.  He was one of three tough teachers I had in HS, out of all of them, I was not well prepared for college IMHO.

My kids told me they felt well prepared, it wasn't a Big Transition for them.

I can vaguely recall the "schools" for the black kids in Augusta, GA.  African Americans obviously lived in "their" part of town, and it mostly was what we'd call slums, really really bad slums.  I can recall water fountains labeled "Whites Only" and "Colored", the latter being filthy.

We had busing when I was in HS to try and ferry a few black kids to the school.  I don't think any lived in the school district at the time, the area is not 70%+ black and most of the rest Hispanic.  Meanwhile, the city of Atlanta is reversing white flight rather quickly.  Black folks and Native Americans of my era had few chances.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 10:49:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 07:18:09 AM

I guess our education system is great thanks to the DoE. 


Except that has not been my experience with it.

Nobody said it was great.

I said it was better.

"if you're not getting better, you're getting worse."
- Joe Paterno

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 10:59:07 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 07:48:32 AM

Bulljive.

How would you multiply 11 x 14 in your head?

If you have a higher concept of math, you'd probably multiply 14 x 10, and then add 14.  This is pretty much how "new" math works.

How about adding 7+29+3?  If you have a higher concept of math, you'd probably do something like this: 7+3=10+29=39.

Essentially, new math is working the "problem solving" area of the brain, rather than just using rote memorization.

It is different, and confusing to us older folks that learned to carry the one by making marks on stone tablets.  Different doesn't mean worse.

BTW, MOST schools actually combine both methods, because ... wait for it ... common core testing shows schools that incorporate both methods outperform those that don't.  That's a fact.

Note that common core does not mandate HOW something is to be taught.  You can teach traditional math, new math, a combination of both, they don't care. Common core just measures how WELL you've learned it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 11:04:03 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 12:50:12 AM

Ever heard of common core? 

Oh wait, some states don’t participate in that, right?  Wrong. They do. They may not take the national standard test, but the states have to administer a state test that .... Wait for it ... meets the common core standards.

All states do not participate in Common Core.

Furthermore, where is the federal government's legitimate authority to even set a national standard, Common Core or otherwise?

Power is different from legitimate authority.  The federal government can force states to knuckle under by threatening to withhold funding for a variety of operations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 11:10:48 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 12:14:14 AM

It's not a huge bureaucracy.  $68 billion budget and 4,000 employees.
It could have remained a part of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW), but Jimmy Carter wanted to be an "education" president.

Even if we combined them again, what would really change?  What would be the benefit?  Why should education and health be in the same bucket?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 11:23:06 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 10:59:07 AM

How would you multiply 11 x 14 in your head?

How ever I want to, not how I'm told to.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2020, 11:26:01 AM

you were the trouble maker in class

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 11:28:40 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 11:04:03 AM

All states do not participate in Common Core.

Furthermore, where is the federal government's legitimate authority to even set a national standard, Common Core or otherwise?

Power is different from legitimate authority.  The federal government can force states to knuckle under by threatening to withhold funding for a variety of operations.

Let me tell you a story.

Once upon a time, Congress recognized that the quality of education available to kids was wildly skewed because there were no set standards in place.  They passed a law (with strong bipartisan support) mandating that education would be held to a national standard.  They even set aside federal funds to do a national test.  This was now law.

Well, some time later folks realized that:

A.  Common core would test science, including "controversial" subjects like evolution and climate change.  People complained.
B.  Some state/local politicians realized this was going to make their schools look bad.  It wasn't that we weren't teaching the kids, it was that "common core" was testing on things we didn't care about in Alabama.  It was perceived as "unfair."  People complained.
C.  The great propaganda machine was set into motion to fight this.  Who here heard the jokes about "common core math"?  Well, turns out, there is no such thing.  Common core does not mandate how you teach math, it only tests on how well you've learned math.  People complained.
D.  The folks that have always opposed "teaching to the test" also came on board.  People complained.

The uproar was real, but the law was already passed.  So what does a politician do to satisfy his constituents?

Well, a few politicians hit upon a grand scheme.  What if we refused to take the national test, but, instead, implemented our own state standardized testing.  We've already been doing that for years, and we can go back and claim we aren't doing common core!

And so, some states decided not to use the "Common Core" national test.  No more of that crazy "common core" stuff.

Here's the thing.  The law was already passed.  Even though states were designing their own tests, these tests HAVE to meet the common core standards.

OK's version is the OCCT, I believe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 11:32:12 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 11:10:48 AM

Even if we combined them again, what would really change?  What would be the benefit?  Why should education and health be in the same bucket?

Why should education be in the weather, climate and environment bucket?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 12:04:26 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 11:32:12 AM

Why should education be in the weather, climate and environment bucket?

Why should Rutgers be in the B1G?

Oh.  Right.

I don't know how we got here, to be honest.

Probably my fault. I'm passionate about education and science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 12:07:32 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 11:10:48 AM

Even if we combined them again, what would really change?  What would be the benefit?  Why should education and health be in the same bucket?

One fewer federal department with its own overhead, its own staff, its own budget, etc.  And one fewer member of a cabinet that has grown to an unmanageable size.

And the same logic applies to the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 12:18:05 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 12:07:32 PM

One fewer federal department with its own overhead, its own staff, its own budget, etc.  And one fewer member of a cabinet that has grown to an unmanageable size.

Maybe save a few pennies on overhead, I guess? 

Anyhow, I'm done talking about education, but I will leave you with one final thought.

An Oklahoma grad, a Penn State grad, and a Michigan grad were walking down the road one day when they came across a comatose woman lying in the street, completely naked.  They called for help, and did their best to cover the woman up.  The OU and PSU guys took off their hats and covered her breasts, and the UM guy took off his hat and covered her crotch.  When the EMTs arrived, they began to tend to her.  AN EMT handed the OU and the PSU guys their hat back, but when he took off the UM hat he put it back, lifted it carefully and peered underneath.  He did this twice.  Angry, the OU guy asked the EMT what he thought he was doing.  The EMT replied, "It's weird.  I'm used to seeing an A$$hole under one of these things."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 12:43:52 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 10:59:07 AM

How would you multiply 11 x 14 in your head?

If you have a higher concept of math, you'd probably multiply 14 x 10, and then add 14.  This is pretty much how "new" math works.

How about adding 7+29+3?  If you have a higher concept of math, you'd probably do something like this: 7+3=10+29=39.

Essentially, new math is working the "problem solving" area of the brain, rather than just using rote memorization.

It is different, and confusing to us older folks that learned to carry the one by making marks on stone tablets.  Different doesn't mean worse.

BTW, MOST schools actually combine both methods, because ... wait for it ... common core testing shows schools that incorporate both methods outperform those that don't.  That's a fact.

Note that common core does not mandate HOW something is to be taught.  You can teach traditional math, new math, a combination of both, they don't care. Common core just measures how WELL you've learned it.

Yeah, I'm trying to help my 7 year old with her 1st grade addition homework, using the ideas of "quick tens" and "number bonds". Which means I had to teach myself the new math. 

It's aggravating to me compared to what I see as the elegant simplicity of "carry the 1"...

...but I can see the reasoning behind doing it this way. 

Most kids when they learn the rote techniques like "carry the 1" have a hard time integrating that into an actual understanding of the concepts of why they're doing what they're doing. That wasn't true for me, as I was always "good at math" and obviously took that all the way to becoming an engineer. But a lot of the people I knew who hated math might have benefited from it.

In the long run, I hope that the new math leads to greater numeracy across the population. The ability to truly grasp numbers and how their manipulation can help you to understand and model the world. 

But then, I also realize that the average American is pretty dumb, and half of them are dumber than that, as said by the great one (Carlin). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 21, 2020, 01:52:21 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 11:23:06 AM

How ever I want to, not how I'm told to.

Badge, this is precisely the point of the current teaching. One technique is not the best technique for everyone, so they teach multiple techniques, and as the student progresses, they are able to rely on the ones that work best for them.

 Much of what is taught, as BBTS noted, is about problem solving, rather than rote memorization. My kids haven't generally appreciated having to do the problem solving part for their math homework/tests, but literally yesterday my son subconsciously did a pretty decent piece of multiplication in his head using that problem solving technique. It was actually pretty cool to witness. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 02:05:22 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 21, 2020, 01:52:21 PM

Badge, this is precisely the point of the current teaching. One technique is not the best technique for everyone, so they teach multiple techniques, and as the student progresses, they are able to rely on the ones that work best for them.

 Much of what is taught, as BBTS noted, is about problem solving, rather than rote memorization. My kids haven't generally appreciated having to do the problem solving part for their math homework/tests, but literally yesterday my son subconsciously did a pretty decent piece of multiplication in his head using that problem solving technique. It was actually pretty cool to witness.

I participated in math competitions in high school.  For my senior year, I even served as the president of the math club (and president of the computer science club, yes I was just that cool).

Anyway, there were two different competitions, one was called "Calculator" and the other was "Number Sense."  Both types of tests were timed and then graded for accuracy.

Calculator was about what you'd expect, very complex calculations often based in Physics-type problems, involving real numbers carried out many decimal places.  You were allowed a standard calculator, none with graphing or equation-solving capability.  Person who finished the most problems correctly got the high score and the prize.

Number Sense, on the other hand, allowed no calculators.  It was a 10-minute 80-question test, and all calculations had to be performed in your head, no scratch-work, no markovers, no erasers.  So you had to develop tricks and shortcuts.  A lot of the techniques that are taught as "alternatives"-- like the ones being discussed above-- were the tricks to excelling at Number Sense competition. For me it was all pretty natural, but for other kids it wasn't.  

Anyway, I see the benefit to teaching both ways, because some kids "get" the tricks and some just don't.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 02:14:46 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 21, 2020, 01:52:21 PM

Badge, this is precisely the point of the current teaching. One technique is not the best technique for everyone, so they teach multiple techniques, and as the student progresses, they are able to rely on the ones that work best for them.

 Much of what is taught, as BBTS noted, is about problem solving, rather than rote memorization. My kids haven't generally appreciated having to do the problem solving part for their math homework/tests, but literally yesterday my son subconsciously did a pretty decent piece of multiplication in his head using that problem solving technique. It was actually pretty cool to witness.

I get all of that. I just don't like being told what to do and how to do it. And that goes for most things - not just teaching style.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 02:18:59 PM

I recall something called "The National Math Test" in HS.  I think if any of us placed 1, 2, or 3 we'd get an A that quarter in calculus.  It probably was the hardest test I'd ever taken, I might have gotten 4 answers out of 20 questions.  It had nothing to do with calculus, but we spent a couple weeks in class working problems.

I took honors Calculus my first year at UGA figuring I already knew it all.  I think we covered everything I new in two days.  There were some really smart people in that class, and I wasn't one of them.  The professor would write with chalk with one hand and erase with the other.  Some of the students didn't even take notes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 02:21:22 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 12:18:05 PM

Maybe save a few pennies on overhead, I guess? 

Anyhow, I'm done talking about education, but I will leave you with one final thought.

An Oklahoma grad, a Penn State grad, and a Michigan grad were walking down the road one day when they came across a comatose woman lying in the street, completely naked.  They called for help, and did their best to cover the woman up.  The OU and PSU guys took off their hats and covered her breasts, and the UM guy took off his hat and covered her crotch.  When the EMTs arrived, they began to tend to her.  AN EMT handed the OU and the PSU guys their hat back, but when he took off the UM hat he put it back, lifted it carefully and peered underneath.  He did this twice.  Angry, the OU guy asked the EMT what he thought he was doing.  The EMT replied, "It's weird.  I'm used to seeing an A$$hole under one of these things."

:86:

That's a good final thought!
Ah, did the EMT guy ever find the a$$hole?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 02:37:28 PM

Quote from: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 02:05:22 PM

I participated in math competitions in high school.  For my senior year, I even served as the president of the math club (and president of the computer science club, yes I was just that cool).

Anyway, there were two different competitions, one was called "Calculator" and the other was "Number Sense."  Both types of tests were timed and then graded for accuracy.

Calculator was about what you'd expect, very complex calculations often based in Physics-type problems, involving real numbers carried out many decimal places.  You were allowed a standard calculator, none with graphing or equation-solving capability.  Person who finished the most problems correctly got the high score and the prize.

Number Sense, on the other hand, allowed no calculators.  It was a 10-minute 80-question test, and all calculations had to be performed in your head, no scratch-work, no markovers, no erasers.  So you had to develop tricks and shortcuts.  A lot of the techniques that are taught as "alternatives"-- like the ones being discussed above-- were the tricks to excelling at Number Sense competition. For me it was all pretty natural, but for other kids it wasn't. 

Anyway, I see the benefit to teaching both ways, because some kids "get" the tricks and some just don't.

I was not a math guy.  Oh, I was in the 95th percentile on the SAT math section, but I didn't like math, didn't see the practical applications of, say, trig, and every other excuse you might imagine for not "liking" math.  Also, I was busy reading stuff that I liked to read instead of doing my homework, and you can't get away with that in math.
However, I was very surprised when I taught at West Point to find that the cadets--who are pretty damn smart--did not necessarily have good numbers sense.  I discovered this teaching a unit on aerial photography (within a physical geography course called "Dirt").  There was a formula that involved focal length of the camera lens, altitude above the subject, actual size of the subject, and scale.  And maybe something else I'm leaving out.  But some of the answers I got back on tests were literally out of this world.  They would come up with, say, the altitude from which a photo was taken being beyond the orbit of the Moon.
I attributed this to too early/too much use of calculators.  Too much dependence on the calculator giving the correct answer and not enough willingness to pause and think about whether the answer is even reasonable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 03:12:47 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 02:21:22 PM

:86:

That's a good final thought!
Ah, did the EMT guy ever find the a$$hole?

Yeah, when he returned the hat :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 21, 2020, 03:36:45 PM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 21, 2020, 12:18:05 PM

Maybe save a few pennies on overhead, I guess? 

Anyhow, I'm done talking about education, but I will leave you with one final thought.

An Oklahoma grad, a Penn State grad, and a Michigan grad were walking down the road one day when they came across a comatose woman lying in the street, completely naked.  They called for help, and did their best to cover the woman up.  The OU and PSU guys took off their hats and covered her breasts, and the UM guy took off his hat and covered her crotch.  When the EMTs arrived, they began to tend to her.  AN EMT handed the OU and the PSU guys their hat back, but when he took off the UM hat he put it back, lifted it carefully and peered underneath.  He did this twice.  Angry, the OU guy asked the EMT what he thought he was doing.  The EMT replied, "It's weird.  I'm used to seeing an A$$hole under one of these things."

Not sure whether to take this as a compliment or an insult.....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 04:32:57 PM

http://productiongap.org/ (http://productiongap.org/)

Governments are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C and 120% more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Oil and gas are also on track to exceed carbon budgets, as countries continue to invest in fossil fuel infrastructure that “locks in” oil and gas use. The effects of this lock-in widen the production gap over time, until countries are producing 43% (36 million barrels per day) more oil and 47% (1,800 billion cubic meters) more gas by 2040 than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway. (http://www.productiongap.org/2019report/#R1)


(https://i.imgur.com/qPSTD2E.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 21, 2020, 04:41:03 PM

I'll be interested to see how that report has changed next year when it accounts for the consequences of the pandemic.

In other news, I'll be following this technology. If it gets commercialized, it would go a long way towards making hydrogen economic while also helping fix our waste problems.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/developer-plans-to-build-hydrogen-plant-that-runs-on-waste-in-southern-cali/578381/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/developer-plans-to-build-hydrogen-plant-that-runs-on-waste-in-southern-cali/578381/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 06:22:57 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 21, 2020, 04:41:03 PM

I'll be interested to see how that report has changed next year when it accounts for the consequences of the pandemic.

In other news, I'll be following this technology. If it gets commercialized, it would go a long way towards making hydrogen economic while also helping fix our waste problems.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/developer-plans-to-build-hydrogen-plant-that-runs-on-waste-in-southern-cali/578381/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/developer-plans-to-build-hydrogen-plant-that-runs-on-waste-in-southern-cali/578381/)

Are you thinking that the pandemic will have a larger effect than just a temporary drop in coal/oil/gas emissions? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 21, 2020, 09:53:05 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 06:22:57 PM

Are you thinking that the pandemic will have a larger effect than just a temporary drop in coal/oil/gas emissions?

It's impossible to predict to what extent, but I think it will have some negative affect beyond what has been projected in previous years.

I think it'll certainly reduce air travel for an extended period of time for business and personal travel, alike. I don't know what impact it will have on vehicle travel, particularly for domestic summer vacations, though I think it has accelerated the acceptance of remote working which reduces commuting (and resulting traffic) long-term, even accounting for the reduced usage of mass transit, especially in cities with strong transit systems (DC, NYC, Boston, Chicago, Bay Area, etc.). It should accelerate the decline of coal generation since that's the marginal generation source (though this won't happen as quickly in states outside of the ISO/RTOs, especially in the Southeast).

If more manufacturing becomes domesticated (or even if trade becomes more common with Canada & Mexico as opposed to China and the rest of Asia) then that reduces shipping, as well, which I'd argue more than offsets the increased industrial emissions.

Time will tell, though....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 22, 2020, 01:32:48 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 21, 2020, 09:53:05 PM

It's impossible to predict to what extent, but I think it will have some negative affect beyond what has been projected in previous years.

I think it'll certainly reduce air travel for an extended period of time for business and personal travel, alike. I don't know what impact it will have on vehicle travel, particularly for domestic summer vacations, though I think it has accelerated the acceptance of remote working which reduces commuting (and resulting traffic) long-term, even accounting for the reduced usage of mass transit, especially in cities with strong transit systems (DC, NYC, Boston, Chicago, Bay Area, etc.). It should accelerate the decline of coal generation since that's the marginal generation source (though this won't happen as quickly in states outside of the ISO/RTOs, especially in the Southeast).

If more manufacturing becomes domesticated (or even if trade becomes more common with Canada & Mexico as opposed to China and the rest of Asia) then that reduces shipping, as well, which I'd argue more than offsets the increased industrial emissions.

Time will tell, though....

Good points.
And, yes, it will.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 01:48:34 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 11:23:06 AM

How ever I want to, not how I'm told to.

Your thinking is the problem.


Just because one way of doing things was railroaded through you and your cohort, and you all suffered through it together, doesn't mean it's the one right way for all.

Yes, you will be told multiple ways of doing something, be expected to show at least a rudimentary knowledge of each of those ways, SO THAT YOU CAN MOVE FORWARD WITH THE ONE THAT WORKS BEST FOR YOU.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 06:30:30 AM

I never took notes in school. Ever. 

Never paid attention either. Just had to show up.

I graduated high school in 3 years. I couldn't stand for another year of "stupid".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 06:35:39 AM

A big problem with municipal solid waste is how much water is in it, on average.  A second problem is chlorine and heavy metals.

It would be interesting to see an energy balance on hitting it with plasma torches and getting out hydrogen and CO.  Folks who incinerate MSW usually have to add natural gas to it to get the fire hot enough to drive off the water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 06:46:08 AM

Anyone know the current stats on recycling? When I was in college, the professor I had for an environmental course said that only about 20 percent of what went in the bin was actually recycled.

Are wine bottles recyclable? 

I've heard yes, I've heard no.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 07:54:23 AM

What I saw years and years ago was that the nonsource separated "recycled" trash is about 5% recycled based on volume.  It comes out on a conveyor moving pretty fast and some folks standing by the belt grab what they can, focused on Al cans.  A few try and grab some plastic that is clear to them, they miss most of it.  A milk jug with the cap on goes by because the jug part and the cap are different plastic types.  The rest gets buried.

I don't imagine it has changed much, it really is a "feel good" kind of thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 07:58:25 AM

https://www.gq.com/story/american-plastic-recycling-dump (https://www.gq.com/story/american-plastic-recycling-dump)

What has changed, and then stopped, if the lines would take out ALL plastic types and send bales to Asia.  China recently said "No more".  Those empty container ships would carry our crap back to Asia and they were overwhelmed, as they would need to separate the plastic into different types for recycling.

The properties of PE (most plastic) and PP and PET (Coke bottles) etc. are very different and to be properly recycled they need to be separated.  Otherwise you get much, and the different types tend to separate or cause physical defects in the new melt processed materials.

Basically, these bales of non-source separated plastic has negative value.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 07:59:23 AM

I was once tasked with making a certain kind of polymer "compostable".  I've written about that disaster before, it was interesting work at least.

Composting was supposed to "save us", but it was clearly a scam and wasn't going to happen for MSW.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:25:35 AM

• According to the EPA, 9.1% of plastic material (https://www.epa.gov/facts-and-figures-about-materials-waste-and-recycling/advancing-sustainable-materials-management) generated in the U.S. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) stream was recycled in 2015. Another 15.5% was combusted for energy, while 75.4% was sent to landfills.
• Plastic recycling results in significant energy savings compared with the production of new plastics using virgin material.
• PlasticsEurope reports that 7.7 million tons of plastics were recycled globally in 2014 That includes more than 3.5 million tons of post-industrial and post-consumer plastic scrap that were recycled in the United States, according to ISRI estimates. 
• According to the EPA, about 30% of recyclable plastic bottles and jars were actually recycled in 2015.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:32:40 AM

If you can get all the PP in one place and all the PE in another and all the PET somewhere else, you have a useful product.  We have two dumpsters downstairs, one is for "recycling".  A lot of what goes in there is cardboard, the rest if glass and plastic and some cans.  It's an unholy mess really.  People add "styrofoam" packing material to it, not much by weight but a lot by volume.  Polystyrene is readily "recycled" IFF you can get it separated into a clean stream.  Just as monomers are combined to make polymer, polymer can be "uncombined" to make monomer, it's not hard to do.  Styrene however is really cheap material, so nobody really cares to recover it from polystyrene.  The PET is a different kind of polymer entirely, very useful for plastic bottles.  The main plastic by far is polyethylene (PE) used for "jugs" where containing CO2 is not an issue, milk jugs for example.  Food plastic wrap is something very different though.

When we were putting together food boxes to give out, it was astonishing to me how much waste we generated.  The various food items came expensively packaged, especially the apples and the yogurt.  I spent a good bit of my time breaking down all the cardboard boxes.  Restaurants deal with this constantly (these were restaurant food items available because they had all closed).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 08:37:12 AM

Those are discouraging numbers.

I'm curious about glass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:44:55 AM

https://cen.acs.org/materials/inorganic-chemistry/glass-recycling-US-broken/97/i6 (https://cen.acs.org/materials/inorganic-chemistry/glass-recycling-US-broken/97/i6)

mericans dispose of some 10 million metric tons of glass annually. Most of it ends up in the trash. Only about one-third gets recycled. That’s not because of some intrinsic materials or chemical property that makes glass difficult to recycle.

People also tend to throw in a lot of things that shouldn’t go in the bin, such as plastic bags, batteries, light bulbs, soiled food containers, used napkins, and what Nordmeyer and others call “wish-cycling” materials. One example is a popular single-serve coffee-brewing product that features a plastic cup and foil lid. Well-meaning people think since those components can be recycled, they’re justified in tossing the whole thing—dirty filter, wet coffee grounds, and all—into a recycling bin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 08:51:04 AM

Some  friends redid their countertops in a recycled glass composite.  Looks great, they have a very modern home and they went with light blues and greens, sort of a seaglass look similar to this.

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmobileimages.lowes.com%2Fproduct%2Fconverted%2F852617%2F852617005776.jpg%3Fsize%3Dpdhi&hash=01b8c0650e039c683799f95a0eecc292)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:55:25 AM

 10 states have passed so-called bottle bills that require consumers to pay deposits on beverage bottles. The idea is consumers will be more likely to recycle the bottles to get back their deposits. The laws are having the intended effect. In states with those laws, 98% of bottles are recycled, compared with the national average of roughly 33%.

If the US as a whole recycles 33%, I bet most of that is these ten states and the other 40 states do almost nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 22, 2020, 09:23:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:55:25 AM

10 states have passed so-called bottle bills that require consumers to pay deposits on beverage bottles. The idea is consumers will be more likely to recycle the bottles to get back their deposits. The laws are having the intended effect. In states with those laws, 98% of bottles are recycled, compared with the national average of roughly 33%.

If the US as a whole recycles 33%, I bet most of that is these ten states and the other 40 states do almost nothing.

Hmm. California has this. However I know that I *never* separate my bottles and cans and take them back to anywhere to get that deposit back. They just get tossed in my recycling bin. I can say that from listening to all my neighbors filling their recycling bins, it sounds like a lot of glass bottles and aluminum cans end up in their bins too.

So yes, I recycle my beverage containers, but I don't know how they can possibly track the 98% and attribute it to the returnable deposit since I've never once returned them to get the deposit back. As far as I'm concerned, it's just an extra tax. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 22, 2020, 10:52:15 AM

The deposit system is really successful in Michigan. There were even trucks from Chicago that would transport ones from other states to get money, but they got caught, and I think the system got changed somehow to prevent fraud. After Michigan games, there are people that will walk around all of the tailgates to collect left over cans and bottles, as well.

I'm pretty pessimistic and cynical about the future of recycling. The best solution to me seems to be reducing plastic consumption and use more compostable products, at least in places with programs for composting, which will hopefully be more common place in the future.... Otherwise, waste-to-energy systems (be it to hydrogen, electricity, and/or something else) seem to be best solution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 10:58:55 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 22, 2020, 10:52:15 AM

 Otherwise, waste-to-energy systems (be it to hydrogen, electricity, and/or something else) seem to be best solution.

(https://speculativeidentities.com/public/assets/research/fusion-industries/_researchMedium/Fusion-2.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 11:05:20 AM

We try to do the right thing here at work regarding recycling.  One lady is really big on it.  Makes her feel good.

Of course she doesn't have much responsibility.  I'm the guy charged with getting everything in the proper dumpsters.

yes, as much as I've tried to educate, folks toss all types of garbage that is not recyclable into the bins.

Annoys me, just a bit.  I end up sorting crap.

I hope the process and time spent is helpful, but I'm skeptical.

Cincy's posts do not help my attitude.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:17:55 PM

We could just require all throwaway products must be biodegradable.  We could utilize hemp instead of ignoring it because of antiquated, invented problems with it.  We could stop being the only animal that doesn't live in concert with nature.  

We could do these things tomorrow.  We won't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:07:49 PM

Being "biodegradable" is not the panacea some think it would be, and would of course incur significant costs.

We could sell milk in glass bottles again, not biodegradable, but reusable.

Nearly all the hype on "biodegradable" is just that, hype, and anything in a landfill isn't going to biodegrade anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 22, 2020, 01:12:00 PM

An AP teacher workshop I attended in Denver last summer served lunches in plastic containers that were supposedly biodegradable in sunlight.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:21:05 PM

Then they would be photodegradable, perhaps, and into what?  In a landfill, there isn't much sunlight.  And I bet those containers went to landfill.  I've been through the "wars" on biodegradable stuff, it's nearly all hooey.

There is a guy at Arizona who digs up landfills (cores) and he finds 30 year old hotdogs that look OK.  He dates the garbage by reading newspapers.

A landfill is designed to entomb material, degradation is a bad thing.  It happens, and the products it produces are undesirable, like methane and leachate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:31:00 PM

The main reason "biodegradable" doesn't take off, aside from cost, is mentioned above, if it goes to landfill, nothing biodegrades.  So, what's the point?  It might limit litter for stuff that gets tossed out.  But one also has to be concerned about what it biodegrades into.  Not everything breaks down into innocuous stuff.

Recycling would be a better idea, IFF we source separate plastics, glass, paper, and Al.  Americans generally do a poor job of that.  We're better at making new stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 22, 2020, 01:42:58 PM

Supposedly, those containers broke down into cornstarch or something of that nature.
We put them into recycling bins, with food remnants sticking to many of them.  I didn't seem kosher to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:51:12 PM

My guess is they went to landfill, and are still there.  There is a very outside chance they were sent to some composting operation, but I thought those had all shut down for MSW.  You can and should compost yard waste. There were "great hopes" back in the day for something called PLA, Polylactic acid.  It does degrade and was fairly cheap.  The physical properties were so-so.  It never caught on except as an advertising gimmick for a while.  I think Coke bottles for a bit claimed to be 20% PLA or something, I don't recall now, it all disappeared.

The marketers feed our emotional needs with their tripe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 04:09:05 PM

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1062893583 (https://www.eenews.net/stories/1062893583)

A growing number of prognosticators expect that global carbon dioxide emissions could fall 5% this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, amounting to the largest annual reduction on record. But climate researchers say there is little reason for celebration, for people or the planet.
CO2 is a long-lived gas. An annual drop in emissions, even one of historic proportions, is unlikely to dramatically change the concentrations of carbon dioxide swirling around Earth's atmosphere. Then there is the nature of the reductions. Few think draconian economic lockdowns, like those implemented to halt the virus's spread, represent a viable decarbonization strategy.
Mostly, the emissions projections show just how much work the world needs to do to green the economy. Holding global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius, for instance, would require annual emission reductions of 7.6% over the next decade, according to the United Nations' projections (https://www.unenvironment.org/interactive/emissions-gap-report/2019/).
"If this is all we get from shutting the entire world down, it illustrates the scope and scale of the climate challenge, which is fundamentally changing the way we make and use energy and products," said Costa Samaras, a professor who studies climate and energy systems at Carnegie Mellon University.


I think it's time to face facts and 'fess up about this climate change thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 03:46:49 PM

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/plunge-in-carbon-emissions-lockdowns-will-not-slow-climate-change/?fbclid=IwAR12ddxbHrVsrNZujY7qGIII5Y7Al-kNOfHMZ-xUK9Ug7mGsd2geZ8aESaA (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/plunge-in-carbon-emissions-lockdowns-will-not-slow-climate-change/?fbclid=IwAR12ddxbHrVsrNZujY7qGIII5Y7Al-kNOfHMZ-xUK9Ug7mGsd2geZ8aESaA)

The virus outbreak will have a fairly modest impact on CO2 emissions globally, according to this, down perhaps 8% or so.

Even with all this economic upheaval and the emotional toll of isolating, our emissions have dropped only 17 percent in the short term and will likely drop by less than 10 percent for the year. The effects of those declines on the overall greenhouse gas problem are infinitesimal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 25, 2020, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 03:46:49 PM

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/plunge-in-carbon-emissions-lockdowns-will-not-slow-climate-change/?fbclid=IwAR12ddxbHrVsrNZujY7qGIII5Y7Al-kNOfHMZ-xUK9Ug7mGsd2geZ8aESaA (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/plunge-in-carbon-emissions-lockdowns-will-not-slow-climate-change/?fbclid=IwAR12ddxbHrVsrNZujY7qGIII5Y7Al-kNOfHMZ-xUK9Ug7mGsd2geZ8aESaA)

The virus outbreak will have a fairly modest impact on CO2 emissions globally, according to this, down perhaps 8% or so.

Even with all this economic upheaval and the emotional toll of isolating, our emissions have dropped only 17 percent in the short term and will likely drop by less than 10 percent for the year. The effects of those declines on the overall greenhouse gas problem are infinitesimal.

Yeah, I don't think we should put much weight behind pandemic CO2 decreases.  

They aren't permanent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 07:43:01 PM

Popular Mechanics
Will the World's Biggest Carbon Capture Facility Work?
It better. This coal-burning plant is making a $1 billion bet.
BY CAROLINE DELBERT (https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/224127/caroline-delbert/)
MAY 25, 2020

(https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/images/mzyxnju2nw-1590164502.jpeg?crop=0.75xw:1xh;center,top&resize=480:*)
MINNKOTA POWER COOPERATIVE

(https://pinterest.com/pin/create/button/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.popularmechanics.com%2Fscience%2Fa32389517%2Fworlds-biggest-carbon-capture-facility-power-plant%2F&description=Will the World's Biggest Carbon Capture Facility)

• A record-setting carbon recapture facility (https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/green-tech/clean-coal/north-dakota-coal-plant-worlds-largest-carbon-capture-facility-power-generating-facility) is planned for a North Dakota coal-burning plant.
• Carbon recapture is a huge and growing interest (https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a28916098/machine-turns-carbon-dioxide-liquid-fuel/), with two existing large facilities at other coal plants.
• Advocates say carbon recapture is a way to help neutralize coal while we continue to use it.

---

A coal power plant in North Dakota wants to build the largest ever carbon recapture facility (https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/green-tech/clean-coal/north-dakota-coal-plant-worlds-largest-carbon-capture-facility-power-generating-facility) as a way to try to keep its plant viable. Could the plan really work?
Minnkota Power Cooperative in Grand Forks, North Dakota owns both the plant, the Milton R. Young Station, and the new facility, Project Tundra. Minnkota says its efforts to sequester and recapture waste carbon are motivated both by keeping its plant running and the amount of carbon it can save from reentering the environment.

“To sequester CO₂ from the Young station, Project Tundra will make use of technology similar to that employed at the only two other existing carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities operating at power plants in the world—Petra Nova (https://www.nrg.com/case-studies/petra-nova.html) in Texas and Boundary Dam (https://www.saskpower.com/Our-Power-Future/Infrastructure-Projects/Carbon-Capture-and-Storage/Boundary-Dam-Carbon-Capture-Project) in Saskatchewan, Canada,” IEEE Spectrum explains (https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/green-tech/clean-coal/north-dakota-coal-plant-worlds-largest-carbon-capture-facility-power-generating-facility).

How does it work? First, waste CO₂ goes through a “scrubber,” in this case a cooling scrubber (https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/co2-scrubbing.htm) that leads into an absorber for amine gas treating (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amine_gas_treating). Special chemicals called amines readily bond with CO₂ so it can be filtered out of the rest of the through-flowing gases. Then, the carrying amines are separated from the CO₂. The amines can be reused, and the CO₂ is compressed into a liquid that can be pumped underground for inert storage. What’s left is mostly nitrogen, which already makes up more than three-quarters of our atmosphere.

Reporting on the predecessor Petra Nova plant (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33552), the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) says this process can recover up to 90 percent of CO₂. There are two similar technologies that can work better in different scenarios, and a working version installed in a coal plant can combine elements from each.


Oxy-combustion is when fossil fuels are burned in almost completely pure oxygen instead of regular air or other gas mixes, which produces purer CO₂ that’s simpler to recapture. Pre-combustion is a system of fossil fuel burning that produces a controlled, pure hydrogen and CO₂ gas.
Without reinventing the wheel, Project Tundra will save a lot of time and money, and Minnkota plans to begin construction in 2022 if it can raise $1 billion in funding by then. Sometimes, especially in the world of renewable energy, the compromise solution is the only one people will accept. World Resources Institute’s James Mulligan says he believes even this costly compromise is a politically smart idea that will still do some good.
“Are we looking for perfect or are we looking for good?” Mulligan told IEEE Spectrum. At Petra Nova, the recovered CO₂ is even repurposed to improve efficiency of a nearby oil well. For now, Project Tundra and the Petra Nova plant represent a way to mitigate coal’s damage to the atmosphere. The cost is high, but proponents say it’s worth it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 08:24:08 PM

Wind farms paid record £.9.3m to switch off their turbines (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/wind-farms-paid-record-9-140556461.html)
The Telegraph
Phoebe Southworth
23 May 2020

Wind farms in Britain were paid a record £.9.3m to switch off their turbines on Friday, The Telegraph can disclose.

More than 80 plants across England and Scotland were handed the so-called 'constraint payments', when supply outstrips demand, by National Grid, as thousands of buildings lying empty following the coronavirus lockdown contributed to a nosedive in demand for energy.

In what has been declared a "national embarrassment" and a power management "disgrace" by campaigners, consumers will ultimately foot the bill of £6.9m to 66 Scottish plants and £1.9m to 14 offshore plants in England.

This is almost double the previous single day record payout to wind farm operators, which was £4.8m on Oct 8, 2018, when turbines were switched off because it became too windy.

It is believed the low demand for electricity on May 22 was due to windy and sunny weather this week, with solar panels likely to have produced a lot of energy, combined with the lack of demand for power given the Covid-19 lockdown which has seen many businesses close.

So worrying was the development that National Grid issued an alert to stop it happening for a second day running.

Dr John Constable, director of the Renewable Energy Foundation, a UK charity that monitors energy use, said: “Overdeployment of renewables in the UK, particularly uncontrollable wind and solar, has resulted in a very fragile electricity system, which is inflexible and unable to deal with accidents and unexpected circumstances at a reasonable cost to consumers.

"Grid balancing expenditure so far this year is already horrific and by the end of the summer it will be terrifying.

"This is a national embarrassment and a disgrace to the management of the electricity sector who have complacently allowed this crisis to develop over the last decade.”

The charity previously revealed that the operators of 86 wind farms in Britain were handed a record of more than £136m in constraint payments last year.

RenewableUK’s director of strategic communications, Luke Clark, said: “Wind is one of the UK’s biggest power sources, generating 30 per cent of our electricity in the first quarter of this year.

"Investing in new grid infrastructure is vital so that renewable generators can continue to provide consumers with the massive quantities of cheap electricity we need to achieve net zero emissions.

“Constraint payments are the cheapest way for National Grid to run the electricity network within its current limits.

"All types of generation, including fossil fuels, receive them, but unlike older technologies, wind farms can turn off or on within a matter of seconds, and so wind is often called on by National Grid to vary its output. So it’s actually the best way to keep bills as low as possible."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 25, 2020, 08:58:56 PM

It's unfortunate that the UK has more transmission constraints and significantly lacks in energy storage infrastructure compared to the US, among other countries. It's a fixable issue, though.

Texas occasionally has negative electricity prices at night, too, when wind generation is highest and demand is lowest. Consequently, some large energy consumers schedule their operations at nights to take advantage of that, which then increases wholesale prices back above zero on similar future days..... The inverse strategy also reduces peak demand (generally on the hottest summer weekdays), which electricity prices are highest.

CCS hasn't been cost-effective to date, especially for coal plants, where the Kemper demonstration project was a complete failure. I do think it will be utilized in gas plants in the future, though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 09:00:09 PM

This is all a BIG Cluster F, Ponzi scheme, silliness, technical garbage ....

Some will get rich while the CO2 levels continue to rise, and rise, and rise, while some delude themselves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 25, 2020, 10:48:06 PM

Poll question:
To get rid of all shampoo containers (plastic trash), would you rather:

have a shampoo bar (like soap), or 
have the shampoo bottle be made of soap?


Sorry, weird text with a friend brought this on.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 11:03:39 PM

are shampoo bottles killing dolphins and/or whales?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 26, 2020, 01:24:08 AM

Shampoo bar

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 26, 2020, 02:37:52 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 11:03:39 PM

are shampoo bottles killing dolphins and/or whales?

All plastics kill all the smartest/cutest marine animals, don't you know that?!?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:06:33 AM

Ironically, the trend has been to replace soap BARS with shower gel in bottles.  That would be easy to reverse, in theory, with regulation.

The problem with plastic trash in the ocean originates in Asia of course.  A lot of problems seem to originate in Asia.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 07:50:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:06:33 AM

Ironically, the trend has been to replace soap BARS with shower gel in bottles.  That would be easy to reverse, in theory, with regulation.

The problem with plastic trash in the ocean originates in Asia of course.  A lot of problems seem to originate in Asia.

China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 09:45:21 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 22, 2020, 10:52:15 AM

The deposit system is really successful in Michigan. There were even trucks from Chicago that would transport ones from other states to get money, but they got caught, and I think the system got changed somehow to prevent fraud. After Michigan games, there are people that will walk around all of the tailgates to collect left over cans and bottles, as well.

I'm pretty pessimistic and cynical about the future of recycling. The best solution to me seems to be reducing plastic consumption and use more compostable products, at least in places with programs for composting, which will hopefully be more common place in the future.... Otherwise, waste-to-energy systems (be it to hydrogen, electricity, and/or something else) seem to be best solution.

  When we first moved to Michigan I hated it.  After a few months, it was part of our routine.  Living in Missouri now, there are cans and bottles along every road.  I'm a fan of the deposit system.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 09:48:51 AM

The liquor store near us has 15 or so bins for different color glass, and I imagine it does get recycled there.  I just forget to take ours when we go, need to start.

I'd be fine with a 10 cent bottle charge nationwide.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 10:30:35 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 04:09:05 PM

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1062893583 (https://www.eenews.net/stories/1062893583)


I think it's time to face facts and 'fess up about this climate change thing.

I agree,deforesting - plant a tree.Mostly 40s-50s this spring got to 70s a few times.High 80's with humitiy to match last 3 days,seemingly no acclimation period just spikes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2020, 11:19:32 AM

Iowa has a nickle deposit on cans and bottles

the problem started when the place you purchase from is not required to take them back

we now have a few locations that take cans and bottles, but they are not required to take them all.

So, I end up tossing a few in the trash each week.

I take 7-8 flats in once a month or 6 weeks.  $8-$10 is enough to motivate me.  That buys a couple beers and a sammich.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 11:53:21 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 07:50:46 AM

China.

And Russia.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 12:48:25 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 26, 2020, 11:19:32 AM

Iowa has a nickle deposit on cans and bottles

the problem started when the place you purchase from is not required to take them back

we now have a few locations that take cans and bottles, but they are not required to take them all.
to motivate me. 

Lot of gray area if you have a small grocery or large one for that matter a staff dedicated just to recycling would need to be hired.Then they would have to pass that price hike off to consumers.So just keep with curbside pick up and enforce littering laws if need be

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 26, 2020, 01:52:51 PM

When I was a kid, all pop bottles were glass and there was a 2-cent deposit on them.  Another 3 cents for the carton.  So we kids would walk along the highway looking for bottles in the drainage ditch.  25 bottles would pay for a Revell 1/72-scale P-40 Warhawk model kit.

What would be the downside of going back to glass bottles with deposits?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 01:58:26 PM

The downside is it is somewhat inconvenient.  I personally am fine with the trade off there.  

Now that "we" all think we have to have bottled water to lug around and throw out, it might be even more important.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 26, 2020, 02:03:03 PM

Bottled water in individual-sized bottles has to be the activity that produces the most non-biodegradable trash per value of the product of anything out there.

First, bottled water in those sizes is more expensive than an equal amount of gasoline.

Second, nearly everywhere in the USA, tap water is perfectly OK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2020, 07:03:55 PM

I dern near refuse to drink bottled water

mostly just principle, but the cost really bothers me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 07:08:54 PM

My bottled water is usually in the form of a sudsy grain based concoction

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:11:08 PM

The wife usually has a bottle of water nearby, but it's one she refills.  She hates the cheap flimsy bottles, she keeps the nice ones.

We have a filter on the fridge, but when it goes red, I just reset it without buying a filter.

Coke and Pepsi had to treat their water before making their sodas, so this is like manna from heaven for them.

The use RO and then add back a bit of salts.  Pure water tastes horrible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:11:50 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 07:08:54 PM

My bottled water is usually in the form of a sudsy grain based concoction

I tell the wife that wine is "mostly water".  So is gin, and vodka, etc., though 151 is not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:12:56 PM

In the Ambrose book about the transcontinental RR, he noted that the Chinese drank weak tea and had fresh food brought in and thus stayed quite healthy as a rule.  The Chinese workers were awesome, apparently.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 26, 2020, 07:51:34 PM

Most groups who are brought in for the hardest work who are barely recognized as human and will be killed if they stink at the task they're given are usually very good workers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 26, 2020, 08:00:50 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 26, 2020, 07:51:34 PM

Most groups who are brought in for the hardest work who are barely recognized as human and will be killed if they stink at the task they're given are usually very good workers.

The snark doesn't work quite as well if you say "groups who willingly cross the world's largest ocean seeking work because there's nothing but war, famine and pestilence in their homelands."
I will now introduce a shade of gray.  The Chinese got treated miserably, disproportionately by Irish-Americans who at most were one generation removed from stepping off the boat themselves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 26, 2020, 08:01:45 PM

It's not a snark if the other side of the "conversation" is the "why" behind the abuse.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on May 26, 2020, 08:20:22 PM

Maybe this has been brought up already.

Amazon has to be one of the worst offenders in producing packaging trash.  I saw a model railroading video today where a guy ordered one little jar of model paint from Amazon.

(https://www.testors.com/~/media/DigitalEncyclopedia/Product/Testors/Testors/enamel-paint/bottles/enamel-bottle/1145TT_240px.ashx)

It came in a heavy-duty corrugated cardboard box that could have held a bowling ball, filled with styrofoam popcorn.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 12:12:13 PM

https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-cars-wont-overtake-electric-vehicles-because-theyre-hampered-by-the-laws-of-science-139899 (https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-cars-wont-overtake-electric-vehicles-because-theyre-hampered-by-the-laws-of-science-139899)

All the same, I think hydrogen fuel cells are a flawed concept. I do think hydrogen will play a significant role in achieving net zero carbon emissions by replacing natural gas in industrial and domestic heating. But I struggle to see how hydrogen can compete with electric vehicles, and this view has been reinforced by two recent pronouncements

A report by BloombergNEF concluded:

The bulk of the car, bus and light-truck market looks set to adopt [battery electric technology], which are a cheaper solution than fuel cells.

Volkswagen, meanwhile, made a statement comparing the energy efficiency of the technologies. “The conclusion is clear” said the company. “In the case of the passenger car, everything speaks in favour of the battery and practically nothing speaks in favour of hydrogen.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2020, 12:42:26 PM

I still wonder at the capability of battery production to scale to meet widespread demand... I'm not an expert on lithium mining, battery recycling, etc... So I'm not saying it doesn't scale. 

But I wonder... If you wanted to get, say, 80%+ of worldwide annual new car sales to be BEV, is that achievable?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 04, 2020, 01:15:31 PM

Hydrogen will displace natural gas eventually, but the only transportation uses for it are likely shipping and maybe freight transportation. In general, electrification is the more likely solution to displacing oil & gas than using hydrogen, biofuels, or anything else like that. That said, waste-to-hydrogen is getting a lot of attention recently.

Differently battery technologies will become economic eventually. Zinc8 is the latest company getting attention, but it's anyone's guess which ones win out. In the short term, commercializing other energy storage technologies on the grid-scale is more likely and I'd argue more important, whether that's EnergyVault, FormEnergy or something else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 01:29:04 PM

I would agree batteries are going to be preferred over fuel cells in most applications. 

https://techxplore.com/news/2020-06-hydrogen-cars-wont-electric-vehicles.html?fbclid=IwAR3nA5NOuEbqrcfR0v9GU4OztBGXVUZCClcmoBDCP62OYoG1qn6xDkn_mVU (https://techxplore.com/news/2020-06-hydrogen-cars-wont-electric-vehicles.html?fbclid=IwAR3nA5NOuEbqrcfR0v9GU4OztBGXVUZCClcmoBDCP62OYoG1qn6xDkn_mVU)

NG will be around for a long long time, coal, probably not so much.

Aircraft pose an interesting challenge.  A company I know is working on electric taxiing, the electricity coming from a smallish generator on board that powers utilities and the motors on the wheels.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:08:41 PM

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/19/854760999/traffic-is-way-down-due-to-lockdowns-but-air-pollution-not-so-much (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/19/854760999/traffic-is-way-down-due-to-lockdowns-but-air-pollution-not-so-much)

Discussion of why the economic shut down did less for air pollution reduction than you might have expected.

Unmentioned is the role of trees in all of this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 05, 2020, 04:18:24 PM

Maybe it's the fires and the tear gas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 10:10:13 AM

In weather news, it's pretty much summer here, late afternoon showers are becoming common (and welcome), highs in the mid to upper 80s, it can be sunny and an hour later be pouring rain.  The area around us has many historical markers, mostly about some brigade moving from here to there in 1864.  I try and visualize what any of that was like back then, the weather would have been hot of course as Sherman marched south.  It's an interesting campaign as Johnston tried to block Sherman and isolate on one of his corps, but never could pull it off, which suggests to me that it is very difficult to manage an army of 50,000 or so men to get them to do what you want when you want it.  Sherman was able to lever Johnston from a prepared line time and time again until Kennesaw Mountain, and after that battle Sherman flanked Johnston again and forced him to fall back, always falling back, which made Jeff Davis angrier.

I don't know what would have happened of course had Johnston been left in charge, probably more falling back, as he really lacked the resources to fight Sherman's army, and could have ended up encircled in Atlanta.  Maybe CWS knows.  I know it must have been hot.

Sherman IMHO was one helluva general.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 05:29:54 PM

In other news, May was the hottest May on record.

This all but guarantees that 2020 will be the hottest year ever recorded, and significantly so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 05:43:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 10:10:13 AM

Sherman IMHO was one helluva general.

Yes he was as - Shelby Foote noted maybe the 1st real modern General.He said something along the lines of "war is cruelty,the crueler it is the sooner it will be over." makes sense.My nephew lives down in the Atl with his wife/kids - says they've really done a lot with the place since Uncle Billy last came thru

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 07, 2020, 08:28:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 10:10:13 AM

In weather news, it's pretty much summer here, late afternoon showers are becoming common (and welcome), highs in the mid to upper 80s, it can be sunny and an hour later be pouring rain.  The area around us has many historical markers, mostly about some brigade moving from here to there in 1864.  I try and visualize what any of that was like back then, the weather would have been hot of course as Sherman marched south.  It's an interesting campaign as Johnston tried to block Sherman and isolate on one of his corps, but never could pull it off, which suggests to me that it is very difficult to manage an army of 50,000 or so men to get them to do what you want when you want it.  Sherman was able to lever Johnston from a prepared line time and time again until Kennesaw Mountain, and after that battle Sherman flanked Johnston again and forced him to fall back, always falling back, which made Jeff Davis angrier.

I don't know what would have happened of course had Johnston been left in charge, probably more falling back, as he really lacked the resources to fight Sherman's army, and could have ended up encircled in Atlanta.  Maybe CWS knows.  I know it must have been hot.

Sherman IMHO was one helluva general.

Somewhere I have read that Joe Johnston had a reputation as the best shot in the prewar U.S. Army.  And he never gave anyone a chance to prove that reputation wrong.

IMO, Johnston was predisposed to avoid decisive battles.  His actions--or lack thereof--in the Vicksburg campaign are an example of that.  However, I think he did the about best he could with the resources he had against Sherman north of Atlanta.  John Bell Hood did worse.

J.E.J. was an honorary pallbearer at Sherman's funeral.  It was a cold, rainy day in New York City, and Johnston kept his hat off as a measure of respect.  Urged to put on his hat, Johnston replied, "If I were in his place, and he were standing here in mine, he would not put on his hat." He caught a cold that developed into pneumonia and died 10 days later in Washington, D.C.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2020, 08:47:42 PM

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-alternative-cement-recipesa-recipe-eco-concrete.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-06-alternative-cement-recipesa-recipe-eco-concrete.html)

It is the most widely used product in the world. Cement is indispensable yet its reputation has become quite tainted in the course of the ongoing climate debate. Mixed with water, sand and gravel, it results in concrete, on which our modern world is built. However, the frugal material is in the limelight primarily because of another property: The production of one ton of cement causes around


700 kg of carbon dioxide (CO2) that is emitted in the atmosphere. This is less than in the case of, say, steel or aluminum production. But it's the sheer quantity that makes the difference. Every year, we produce around twelve cubic kilometers of concrete worldwide, a quantity that could completely fill Lake Lucerne—every year anew. And the trend is rising.

The share of global CO2emissions caused by the cement industry is currently around seven percent. However, this is likely to increase in future, as demand is growing in Asia and increasingly also in Africa, while production in Europe is more or less stable. So it is high time to look for a cement that offers people housing and infrastructure, but still takes environmental aspects into account and can be produced in line with our climate targets. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) also calls for the immediate development and use of new cement-based materials that are more climate-friendly and at the same time cost-effective. Empa researchers are thus working on alternative types of cement and concrete that produce less harmful greenhouse gas or can even bind CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 09:15:32 PM

I don't know quite what to think of Confederate generals.  I can admire in some cases their military capacity, much as I might admire say Guderian or Balck or Manstein in the Nazi era.  

I can admire Sherman with few reservations.  I'm sure he had flaws.  We all do.  Grant had flaws, Lincoln had flaws, but I'm perhaps more comfortable admiring them than Lee or Johnston.  I think Jackson had a certain aura that was special.  And jackson of course fell short in the Seven Days.

Herman Balck can be argued as the greatest commander in WW 2 and few remember him at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2020, 09:59:52 PM

Can we keep the history / military discussion elsewhere?

Cement / concrete production is a big challenge to decarbonize. I'm not familiar with the specifics, but the main strategies are to electrify and/or use hydrogen as the energy source in production while using other less carbon-intensive inputs to produce a more carbon-intensive output (that would sequester it). That said, it does capture carbon through the carbonation process over time.

But this can also be improved from the demand side. More of it should be recycled / reused from demolished buildings / roads / etc. The construction industry as a whole will hopefully start to steadily decline as population growth continues to slow down and commercial real estate declines (due to working from home, online shopping, etc.), and more new construction should be on brownfield sites (eg. vacant lots, abandoned / irreparable buildings).

My understanding is that the technology is mostly there but the economics are not yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 06:22:27 PM

https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/14/greening-the-planet-and-slouching-towards-paris/ (https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/14/greening-the-planet-and-slouching-towards-paris/)

That is one of the more interesting things I've read in a while.  If true, and that is an if, it suggests we're going to green the planet about fast enough to manage this problem with some help.

RCP 2.6 is associated with 2.4⁰C of warming (since preindustrial) by 2100. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold warming to two degrees or below. The reduction in warming from the equivalent of 17 years of zero emissions is, of course, spread through the century, but if it took place now (according to the UN’s models) it would reduce 0.5⁰C of the expected warming. The IPCC models have us warming at roughly 0.3⁰C/decade in the near term, but Haverd et al. tell us we will effectively have 1.7 decades of zero emissions thanks to greening.

A little math: 2.4⁰ (the UN’s expected RCP 2.6 warming to 2100) minus 0.5⁰ (the reduction in warming from 17 years of zero emissions) = 1.9⁰C of warming. Thanks to the wonders of photosynthesis on God’s getting-greener earth, we meet the Paris Accord.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 06:33:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 06:22:27 PM

https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/14/greening-the-planet-and-slouching-towards-paris/ (https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/14/greening-the-planet-and-slouching-towards-paris/)

That is one of the more interesting things I've read in a while.  If true, and that is an if, it suggests we're going to green the planet about fast enough to manage this problem with some help.

RCP 2.6 is associated with 2.4⁰C of warming (since preindustrial) by 2100. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold warming to two degrees or below. The reduction in warming from the equivalent of 17 years of zero emissions is, of course, spread through the century, but if it took place now (according to the UN’s models) it would reduce 0.5⁰C of the expected warming. The IPCC models have us warming at roughly 0.3⁰C/decade in the near term, but Haverd et al. tell us we will effectively have 1.7 decades of zero emissions thanks to greening.

A little math: 2.4⁰ (the UN’s expected RCP 2.6 warming to 2100) minus 0.5⁰ (the reduction in warming from 17 years of zero emissions) = 1.9⁰C of warming. Thanks to the wonders of photosynthesis on God’s getting-greener earth, we meet the Paris Accord.

Yeah, that's widely debunked.

There's a reason she posts on a blog and not peer reviewed papers anymore.

Also, she's on Exxon-Mobil's payroll.  Really.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 06:43:06 PM

The innocuously titled paper (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14950), “Higher than expected CO₂ fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations”, by Vanessa Haverd (of Australia’s CSIRO) and eight coauthors uses a biophysical model and observed climate to back-calculate global primary productivity (GPP; the net change in standing vegetation per year), and to forward-calculate it using climate model forecasts.

It's a publication by others she is citing.  It's not her work.  I do realize she has to be castigated severely for her opinions and faulted as being on the payroll of Exxon or whatever.  It's a defense mechanism to silence interesting discussion.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14950 (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14950)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 09, 2020, 12:51:10 AM

It at least makes sense that higher levels of CO2 would stimulate plant growth.

If the Brazilians would stop deforesting the Amazon basin, that would be nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 06:53:53 AM

Some think that has been widely debunked, a paper published in February of this year.  Widely debunked.  Probably paid for by Exxon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 09:54:05 AM

Confirmed, likely?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 09:58:16 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on June 07, 2020, 09:59:52 PM

Can we keep the history / military discussion elsewhere?

Cement / concrete production is a big challenge to decarbonize. I'm not familiar with the specifics, but the main strategies are to electrify and/or use hydrogen as the energy source in production while using other less carbon-intensive inputs to produce a more carbon-intensive output (that would sequester it). That said, it does capture carbon through the carbonation process over time.

But this can also be improved from the demand side. More of it should be recycled / reused from demolished buildings / roads / etc. The construction industry as a whole will hopefully start to steadily decline as population growth continues to slow down and commercial real estate declines (due to working from home, online shopping, etc.), and more new construction should be on brownfield sites (eg. vacant lots, abandoned / irreparable buildings).

My understanding is that the technology is mostly there but the economics are not yet.

As much as can be recycled is already being done. The problem lies with steel. Reinforced concrete is extremely difficult to recycle. Nearly all concrete in buildings is reinforced. Roads, not so much, and that is being recycled at a high rate, for use in asphalt bases and such.

As for the second comment, do you really hope for a steady decline in construction? Didn't you get your degree in economics?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 09, 2020, 11:20:32 AM

I appreciate the input about concrete recycling. Yes, I majored in Economics. The US isn't far behind other developed countries where population has peaked and is declining back to a sustainable level before ending in a steady state. The construction industry isn't going to die (or even shrink as much as coal and oil & gas will), and it will still even grow in developing countries, but with the way the world is going, commercial real estate isn't going to be nearly as important in the future.

Anyway, this article talks about a report that just came out. The short story is that just with existing technologies (no modular nuclear or anything else in R&D), simply shutting down coal, extending existing nuclear and hydro generation to the extent possible and just building wind & solar (no more gas plants) with some energy storage would get us most of the way through the energy transition on the electricity side, without requiring much more transmission infrastructure, either. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/us-could-reach-90-carbon-free-by-2035-bolster-economic-recovery-report-f/579425/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/us-could-reach-90-carbon-free-by-2035-bolster-economic-recovery-report-f/579425/). The key missing part, of course, is federal policy, but if Biden gets elected that should get done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 11:35:14 AM

Construction in the US hasn't declined at all, and poised to grow even more in the coming years. Decaying infrastructure in this country needs fixing. Band-Aids only work for so long. 

We can't have bridges collapsing and dams failing, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 09, 2020, 01:07:12 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 11:35:14 AM

Construction in the US hasn't declined at all, and poised to grow even more in the coming years. Decaying infrastructure in this country needs fixing. Band-Aids only work for so long.

We can't have bridges collapsing and dams failing, etc.

That's all true. I guess my larger point is that new construction should decline. Obviously, a lot of maintenance is long overdue, and a lot of buildings could be renovated / repurposed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 01:09:49 PM

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/us-could-reach-90-carbon-free-by-2035-bolster-economic-recovery-report-f/579425/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/us-could-reach-90-carbon-free-by-2035-bolster-economic-recovery-report-f/579425/)

This article is hand waving drivel.  Complete waste of ink.  Or electrons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 07:48:06 AM

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/green-iowa-wind-energy-giant-blades-landfills-midamerican-alliant-20191117?fbclid=IwAR2GYBB_IaBw3Ngwejx3D3fy0Xvfd4lAOsq9zn0cTlypQLF50WgTj_OAnqY (https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/green-iowa-wind-energy-giant-blades-landfills-midamerican-alliant-20191117?fbclid=IwAR2GYBB_IaBw3Ngwejx3D3fy0Xvfd4lAOsq9zn0cTlypQLF50WgTj_OAnqY)

Probably paid for by Exxon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 12:01:46 PM

http://productiongap.org/ (http://productiongap.org/)

Governments are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C and 120% more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Collectively, countries’ planned fossil fuel production not only exceeds 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, it also surpasses production levels consistent with the implementation of the national climate policies and ambitions in countries’ NDCs. As a consequence, the production gap is wider than the emissions gap.

Indeed, though many governments plan to decrease their emissions, they are signalling the opposite when it comes to fossil fuel production, with plans and projections for expansion. This hinders the collective ability of countries to meet global climate goals, and it further widens not just the production gap, but the emissions gap as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 12:03:16 PM

That of course is what governments do, they have meetings and sign agreements off in the future figuring whoever replaces them will have to deal with it.  Then they pony out some PR scale projects to create the appearance they are DOING something of substance.

Meanwhile, in the real world, things continue apace.  But they SOUND good, and they are able to fool many.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 10, 2020, 12:11:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 07:48:06 AM

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/green-iowa-wind-energy-giant-blades-landfills-midamerican-alliant-20191117?fbclid=IwAR2GYBB_IaBw3Ngwejx3D3fy0Xvfd4lAOsq9zn0cTlypQLF50WgTj_OAnqY (https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/green-iowa-wind-energy-giant-blades-landfills-midamerican-alliant-20191117?fbclid=IwAR2GYBB_IaBw3Ngwejx3D3fy0Xvfd4lAOsq9zn0cTlypQLF50WgTj_OAnqY)

Probably paid for by Exxon.

so, is filling a landfill a bigger issue than burning coal?

from the article........


MidAmerican’s Greenwood says the utility plans to spend $2.3 billion to repower 1,215 turbines across the state through 2022.

Consumers will pay none of the wind costs, Greenwood said. In fact, MidAmerican has said the utility will receive about $10 billion in federal production tax credits for the investment, covering the capital costs needed to build the wind farms.

MidAmerican Energy has set a goal to create as much energy from wind as its 770,000 Iowa electric customers use over a year. So far, it’s reached about 50%.

Despite the big investment, coal is still Iowa’s largest source of energy to produce electricity, followed by wind and other renewable energy and natural gas. Iowa gets 34% of its electricity from wind, the second-largest proportion in the nation after Kansas at 36%.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 12:19:04 PM

I personally think coal is by far the worst thing to use to generate electricity.  My own approach would be to try and replace every coal plant (nearly) in the US in a decade, at least going to NG is a good step, and that is happening due to market forces of course.  The fly ash from coal is a big problem as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 12:25:41 PM

https://undark.org/2019/11/13/cement-carbon-green-concrete/ (https://undark.org/2019/11/13/cement-carbon-green-concrete/)

Cement is one of the global economy’s most carbon-polluting industries. Responsible for about 8 percent (https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change) of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2015, if it were ranked with individual countries, the cement industry would be the third-largest greenhouse-gas emitter in the world behind only China and the United States. And this already outsized footprint is only projected to grow in the coming decades as economic development and rapid urbanization continue across Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. According to the International Energy Agency (https://www.iea.org/) and the Cement Sustainability Initiative (https://www.wbcsd.org/Sector-Projects/Cement-Sustainability-Initiative), by 2050 cement production could increase by as much as 23 percent (https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/april/cement-technology-roadmap-plots-path-to-cutting-co2-emissions-24-by-2050.html).

A real-world demonstration of their product is taking shape in Georgia at a multi-story commercial office building under construction in one of Atlanta’s hippest neighborhoods. Set to be completed by the end of the year, the building will be the first large-scale development to use concrete made with CarbonCure throughout the entire structure.

https://www.carboncure.com/resources/725-ponce/ (https://www.carboncure.com/resources/725-ponce/)

I laughed at "hippest neighborhoods" comment.  I guess it is in a way, it's not far from us at all, walking distance.

https://www.carboncure.com/resources/kendeda/ (https://www.carboncure.com/resources/kendeda/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 07:11:53 PM

One thing I saw in spades at work was "imagery", basically style over substance.  When I was young, I was often drawn in to the pitch, after all, you want to believe your leaders are leading and telling the truth and great things are happening.  Of course, after a decade or so, this became impossible, fool me once etc.

The more experienced folks tried to warn me, but I really had to learn it myself.  And the young folks I tried to warn had excuses just as I did.

I got so jaded and cynical I didn't believe anything, which was perhaps an over reaction, but not by much, if any.  It was somewhat similar to 1984.  Really.  What WAS true two years before was now to be forgotten because of this NEW truth.  Which was better.  Of course, those who went along were team players and got promoted, so there was a big motivation to appear to believe whatever guff they were selling.

I was lucky in a way, I managed to find a sinecure where I didn't have to sell my soul to appear to believe in what was obvious crap.  They paid me quite well, and I didn't need to work very hard at all.  I didn't try and create any pretense I was working hard.  I just faded away.

I regret to this day I didn't try something more adventurous for a career, I think I could have done something of some minor consequence somewhere else.  But, it paid well anyway.  And I had kids, they tend to be your priority.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on June 10, 2020, 10:38:04 PM

Doing a good job with the kids is pretty important.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 06:29:20 AM

It was my priority in life, trying to, of course I made many mistakes.  I realize now we all do.

I encouraged my kids to major in something they enjoyed and worry about getting a job later.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2020, 10:25:56 AM

Several local environmental organizations are sounding the alarm and trying to raise awareness about a power plant proposed for the campus of The Ohio State University.

Officially known as the Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP), the facility would have a capacity of 105.5 megawatts, power that would be generated – for the first decade of its operation, at the very least – through the burning of natural gas. The plant is proposed for a piece of OSU-owned land at the northeast corner of Tharp Street and Herrick Drive, across the street from the OSU Veterinary Hospital and directly south of the Department of Food Science and Technology.

The building that would hold the facility would be about 60 feet tall, with two cooling towers extending an additional 27 feet above the roof.

The site – which currently holds several green houses – was selected for its proximity to both central campus and the proposed west campus “innovation district,” where early plans call for dozens of new mid-rise buildings and apartments for as many as 4,000 residents. The plant would provide electricity and heating to buildings in both areas, utilizing the heat created by the power-producing turbines to make steam (which is in turn used to heat buildings in the winter and to humidify and regulate temperatures in buildings year-round, and for other tasks in labs and medical facilities).

Also planned for the facility is a new chiller plant, which would be used to cool buildings in the immediate area and in west campus.

Climate Disaster or Step Toward a Carbon-Free Future?
OSU characterizes the new plant as a key component of its latest climate action plan. The stated goal of the plan – which it says is bolstered by the $1.1 billion deal with private energy companies that led to the formation of Ohio State Energy Partners in 2017 – is to achieve full carbon neutrality by 2050. The CHP plant would help achieve this goal by making the university’s heating, cooling and electrical infrastructure much more efficient, and by greatly reducing the need for the institution to draw power from a regional energy grid (run by American Electric Power) that relies heavily on coal and older natural gas plants.

OSU estimates that the CHP plant will cut carbon emissions by 35% in the first year of operations, and is betting that the fuel source of the plant can be transitioned in the not-too-distant-future from natural gas to something more environmentally-friendly – either green hydrogen or renewable natural gas.

Neil Waggoner, the Ohio Senior Campaign Representative of the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign, is skeptical of both claims. He points out that the 35% emissions reduction claim assumes that, if the plant is not built, OSU would simply continue to draw power from the regional grid, which he calls a “false choice.” A better method, he argues, would be to take into account other efforts OSU could undertake to transition to a more renewable mix.

For example, OSU could sign more power purchase agreements, like it did in 2012 when the university committed to buying 50 megawatts of power annually for 20 years from Blue Creek Wind Farm in northwest Ohio.


https://www.columbusunderground.com/concerns-raised-about-proposed-power-plant-on-osu-campus-bw1 (https://www.columbusunderground.com/concerns-raised-about-proposed-power-plant-on-osu-campus-bw1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 10:28:07 AM

I'd like to understand how I can buy power from some wind farm instead of just taking it off the grid per normal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2020, 01:06:35 PM

Great River Energy said it will test an emerging battery technology that could revolutionize the field of grid-level energy storage by providing up to six days of continuous electricity.

The Maple Grove, Minnesota-based generation and transmission co-op will be the first utility to deploy Form Energy’s novel “aqueous air battery” system.

“If successful, this technology could provide an economically viable option for co-ops and other electric utilities that wish to increase their share of renewable energy on their systems while not sacrificing reliability,” said Jan Ahlen, NRECA energy solutions director.

“Lithium-ion batteries can provide significant grid value, but long-duration energy storage, such as Form Energy’s aqueous air technology, will be critical as states, communities and utilities set ambitious net-zero carbon targets.”

The 1-megawatt grid-connected battery with 150 megawatt-hours of continuous energy capability will be completed by 2023 at the site of Great River Energy’s peaking power plant in Cambridge, Minnesota.


https://www.electric.coop/great-river-energy-co-op-test-groundbreaking-battery-energy-storage-system/?MessageRunDetailID=1975057646&PostID=15912931&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io (https://www.electric.coop/great-river-energy-co-op-test-groundbreaking-battery-energy-storage-system/?MessageRunDetailID=1975057646&PostID=15912931&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io)

“During the polar vortex in 2019, we experienced temperatures averaging 25 degrees below zero Fahrenheit for a 48-hour period. A four-hour lithium-ion battery would have done very little to help maintain the reliability of the electric grid,” Brekke said.

“A 150-hour battery would make a big difference in an event like that. It would have made a difference even if the polar vortex lasted a few more days.”

At utility-scale, the Form Energy battery also could save a lot of money, Brekke added.

“This system will be a fraction of the cost of lithium-ion battery on a cost-per-MWh basis,” he said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 01:35:24 PM

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S240582971931089X#:~:text=%20Aqueous%20metal-air%20batteries:%20Fundamentals,source%20of%20the...%20More (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S240582971931089X#:~:text= Aqueous metal-air batteries: Fundamentals,source of the... More)

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/11/will-form-energy-aqueous-air-battery-challenge-tesla-for-grid-storage-dominance/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/11/will-form-energy-aqueous-air-battery-challenge-tesla-for-grid-storage-dominance/)

What is an aqueous air battery? No one knows much about the technology and the company is being very tight-lipped about it.

In the discussion to Tina’s article, several people mentioned the power output from the Form Energy battery is quite low. For instance, Troy Frank pointed out the Hornsdale battery in South Australia could supply 1 MW of electricity for 129 hours, so the advantage of the Form Energy battery over a lithium-ion battery may be less than it appears to be at first glance.

He is correct (and the rest of his comments are on point and technically accurate), which leads to this conclusion. Flow batteries like the one coming from Form Energy may become part of the energy storage mix, providing a third option between fast reacting lithium-ion batteries and long term storage from pumped hydro systems. In the end, the issue will come down to cost. As another comment on Tina’s article pointed out, pumped hydro may still be the king of really long term storage but a flow battery can be installed just about anywhere. The same is not true of pumped hydro storage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 01:36:22 PM

I imagine they would file for patent protection, right?  A patent application has to reveal how a thing works, in detail, it's required.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 11, 2020, 03:24:42 PM

CHP is a very cost-effectively for on-site generation, and it makes sense to continue to deploy systems that can eventually run on hydrogen.

Cost-effective long-term storage is a big deal, so I'm following that.

As for how you can buy renewable energy, if you're in a deregulated state https://www.electricchoice.com/map-deregulated-energy-markets/ (https://www.electricchoice.com/map-deregulated-energy-markets/) (though it's not completely accurate*) for electricity, there are many different energy suppliers, many of which offer renewable energy.... Alternatively, if you're in California, many municipalities now have Community Choice Aggregations (these also exist in IL, OH, NJ, NY, MA, and RI but are not as successful there because those states are deregulated), which can offer electricity at cheaper rates and with a greater percentage of renewables. More info on those here: https://leanenergyus.org/ (https://leanenergyus.org/) and this site is California-specific https://cal-cca.org/ (https://cal-cca.org/).

Other states are considering legislation to permit CCAs, as well, including regulated states like Arizona, Colorado, and Michigan*. I think I mentioned earlier that Ann Arbor is trying to create their own CCA if the state allows it.

*Michigan is a weird situation where it is partly deregulated but the number of customers that can buy their energy from an energy supplier has been maxed out.

Unfortunately, the Southeast and other Western states are still highly regulated and the utilities there control the whole system.

I've mentioned before that I think Texas has the best model with full deregulation such that the utilities have no customers and don't directly own any generation. There's a market on the generation side, which has accelerated their transition to wind and solar, and energy suppliers have to compete on low prices so electricity is more affordable. I don't see other states going that direction any time soon, though, so the CCA model is the best alternative that I've seen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 03:35:00 PM

My point is you cannot tell electricity generate from wind from electricity generated from coal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 11, 2020, 03:42:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 03:35:00 PM

My point is you cannot tell electricity generate from wind from electricity generated from coal.

That's true, but that's why renewable energy certificates (RECs) exist. They support the construction of future wind and solar projects. That's what you're paying for by buying renewable energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 03:47:24 PM

I'll just buy electricity as provided.  If wind and solar are cheaper than anything else, it will all get converted anyway without my help.

I don't believe I'd really be getting electrons specially generated by a wind turbine that somehow offer me any value.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2020, 03:58:00 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 03:47:24 PM

I'll just buy electricity as provided.  If wind and solar are cheaper than anything else, it will all get converted anyway without my help.

I don't believe I'd really be getting electrons specially generated by a wind turbine that somehow offer me any value.

You mean you don't have a sophisticated enough palate to tell the difference in your electrons? 

Bad electrons can really dirty up an integrated circuit. They're actually responsible for most computer viruses. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2020, 04:00:51 PM

The following chart from Transport & Environment is a gem. It’s a great chart to explain that battery electric vehicles are, by far, our most efficient automobile option, and clearly the future of transport.

(https://i0.wp.com/cleantechnica.com/files/2020/06/most-efficient-automobiles.png?w=900&ssl=1)

I’ve seen these arguments made so many times, countless times, but humans are not as great as we think we are at comprehending and synthesizing written arguments. They say that a picture is a thousand words, but a picture is better than a thousand words, because a thousand words is often too verbose to make a good point. Just share that chart any time you’re trying to explain to someone why battery electric vehicles are the future.

It’s not purely about fuel efficiency either. You get more power at a greater efficiency. You don’t have to deal with the way inefficiencies show themselves — loud rumbling, a vibrating car, polluted air. You don’t have the costs that come with hundreds of devices meant to improve efficiency. More efficient just equals better.

Naturally, as battery costs come down, the fundamental efficiencies and benefits of electric powertrains show themselves more and more. Electric cars get more and more competitive — er, well, increasingly better than their inefficient competitors.

Hat tip to @ItalianMaster/Tony Vece.

Image courtesy Transport & Environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2020, 04:50:02 PM

Efficient != ability to scale.

That's my biggest concern about BEV. How many lithium batteries can we produce per year? Assuming it's possible to mine that much lithium every year [and the various other metals], is it cost effective for the mining companies to expand production that heavily or will it result in them being unable to do it economically? 

I bring it up often here, but I see this daily in the difference between HDD and SSD. On almost every technical measure, SSD is far advantageous to HDD. And "they" say that as soon as we bring the costs down, SSD will completely displace HDD. Problem is that is the NAND industry can't scale to produce that much NAND, and they can't do it at a price which is competitive with HDD without going bankrupt. These aren't opinions--that's economic fact. 

As I've said, I don't know enough about the mining industry to know whether they can economically scale to support the production. Because if they can't, we have to hope for amazing breakthroughs in battery technology to find a better, cost-effective, able to scale technology for storing the energy to power these cars.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 11, 2020, 04:57:45 PM

Lithium mining has already been scaled up because of electronics. The issue has been cost and that's being resolved. That said, other energy storage technologies need to be scaled up too for longer-term storage and other uses that aren't as effective with batteries.

That is a great graphic, though. Electrification is inevitable in a lot of areas, besides transportation, though hydrogen will win out in some, too, including industrial processes, shipping, and probably other forms of freight transportation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2020, 06:00:09 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on June 11, 2020, 04:57:45 PM

Lithium mining has already been scaled up because of electronics. The issue has been cost and that's being resolved.

Can you elaborate? 

I can do some google searching, which offers a lot of mixed analysis, but not knowing some of these players I don't know all their biases... Except for "energyskeptic.com", which I'm pretty sure isn't a fair source lol...

But even then, the discussions are more about "do enough resources exist" to supply the market, and the question of "is it economically feasible to do it" gets lost. 

The material need for electrification of the transportation sector blows the doors off anything needed for cellphones and laptops. Completely different order of magnitude. And you say that cost is an issue "and that's being resolved"... I'm wondering how that gets resolved in a way which gives lithium mining companies enough profit to justify mining while also bringing down battery costs enough to mainstream the BEV?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 06:34:17 PM

I see a lot of hand waving not backed up by sound technical analysis myself.  That's not to say problems won't be solved over time, but it could take longer than the most optimistic hope.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 11, 2020, 11:15:47 PM

Lithium is one of the most commonly available metals there are. There are others, but here's one article about how there's no supply issue, even domestically: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/27/lithium-supply-fears-loom-over-electric-vehicle-happy-talk-or-not-as-the-case-may-be/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/27/lithium-supply-fears-loom-over-electric-vehicle-happy-talk-or-not-as-the-case-may-be/). This article also addresses how the batteries can be recycled / reused.

As with anything else, economies of scale is what's causing the costs to decline.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2020, 12:01:35 PM

Good News.............

From sea to sea? N.S. company turns ghost gear into plastic lumber

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/from-sea-to-sea-ns-company-turns-ghost-gear-into-plastic-lumber/ar-BB15BgiX (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/from-sea-to-sea-ns-company-turns-ghost-gear-into-plastic-lumber/ar-BB15BgiX)

Bad News............

The leakage of plastic waste into the ocean is a global issue with a multitude of challenges which vary considerably between geographies. The complexity of the issue demands a holistic, multi-level, multi-actor approach across the full life-cycle of the plastics value chain. There is no silver bullet or new wonder material that will solve all our problems quickly; we need to rethink the systems that got us here in the first place.

https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/why-we-will-never-be-able-to-recycle-or-incinerate-away-ocean-pollution/ (https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/why-we-will-never-be-able-to-recycle-or-incinerate-away-ocean-pollution/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 12:07:58 PM

The WSJ had an article today about how the COVID crisis has cut CO2 emissions globally and how we would need this level of cuts annually, and then some, to reach the 2030 goals.  I fully expect 2030 to come and having not come anywhere near these "goals", folks will still be holding meetings and making political hay and setting goals for 2040, which also will not be achieved.

Realism is seldom popular of course, but it often gives the most correct expectation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 10:51:02 PM

A French company whose plastic-eating enzyme technology could revolutionise recycling is due to have a plant up and running by next year.

The Carbios plant, outside Lyon, will convert PET plastic – used in water and fizzy drink bottles and polyester fibres – back into its raw material. Current recycling methods “downcycle” plastic into lower-
quality material, which means it eventually cannot be recycled any more.

This process means the new material is of the same quality as the original, allowing for infinite recycling. In just 10 hours, a tonne of shredded plastic can be 90% degraded by the enzymes, which have been developed from those found occurring naturally in landfill sites.


https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/plastic-eating-enzyme-will-revolutionise-recycling (https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/plastic-eating-enzyme-will-revolutionise-recycling)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 06:37:10 AM

Of course, first you have to separate the streams and isolate on bottles that are PET, which means no bottle caps in said stream.  Most folks recycle with the cap on the bottle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 20, 2020, 09:49:43 AM

so, the cap on the bottle can't be made of something that can be recycled?

otherwise, some method to separate caps and bottles can be found

heck, just tell folks to toss the caps in the garbage or out the window

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 09:56:57 AM

The bottle cap generally is polypropylene.  It's properties are needed to maintain the seal.  The bottle is polyethyleneterephthalate (PET).  It's properties are needed to keep the gas inside, among other things.

It's easy to recycle either if they are separated.  PET can be recycled easily, or turned back into the component monomers easily, and chemically, this is all well known operations.  You don't need some fancy enzyme, but you do need source separation.

Most "plastic" by far is polyethlyene (PE) which also can be recycled, easily, if you get a nearly pure stream.

The white packaging foam is polystyrene, which can be converted back into styrene and reused, easily, IFF it is separated into a pure stream.

The issue with all of these fancy sounding techniques is source separation, not chemistry.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 20, 2020, 10:16:34 AM

source separation seems achievable

for the most part we have been able to achieve hand washing and butt wiping by the masses

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 20, 2020, 10:30:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 09:56:57 AM

The bottle cap generally is polypropylene.  It's properties are needed to maintain the seal.  The bottle is polyethyleneterephthalate (PET).  It's properties are needed to keep the gas inside, among other things.

Gotta check with my brother he was working with some company that designed and made those caps.That are indeed a different chemical composite than the bottles.5-6 yrs back he went over to China on business twice because of....bottle caps.Didn't know it was that invlolved

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 11:41:48 AM

All our "recycle" stuff goes into the same bin here, I don't have an option, nor do most people.  The local liquor store has bins for glass bottles by type, which probably does get recycled.  I think most MSW "recycle" goes to landfill.

One thing inherent in making a polymer is that a polymer can be reduced back down to monomers, it's a well understood process.  A thing that I've never seen is a process that does that stepwise for mixed plastics, and traps the monomers from polyethylene first and then polypropylene second and PET third, etc.  My guess is such a process is not very clean and you end up having to purify the monomers again. $$$$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 04:21:37 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/Ml3n8RI.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 09:26:41 PM

Melting Glaciers Cool the Southern Ocean – Might Explain the Recent Antarctic Cooling and Sea Ice Expansion

https://scitechdaily.com/melting-glaciers-cool-the-southern-ocean-might-explain-the-recent-antarctic-cooling-and-sea-ice-expansion/ (https://scitechdaily.com/melting-glaciers-cool-the-southern-ocean-might-explain-the-recent-antarctic-cooling-and-sea-ice-expansion/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 05:27:47 PM

The Iowa Utilities Board verifies the amount of renewable energy produced by MidAmerican Energy in a given year. In 2019, that amounted to 61.3% of the retail electric load MidAmerican Energy delivered to its Iowa customers. This allows us to assure our customers that they are using clean, renewable energy, harvested in Iowa.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2020, 06:07:51 PM

Cow chips?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 06:52:50 PM

The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2020, 08:44:53 PM

Pollen?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 08:02:39 AM

The melting of ice does suck energy from somewhere (and vice versa) and would potentially cool its surroundings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 01, 2020, 10:42:03 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/apjWBBA.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 08:44:56 AM

Very typical summer weather pattern here, high 80s during the day, low 70s at night, PM thunderstorms, low humidity.

Well, part of that might be off a tad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 02, 2020, 11:18:44 AM

humidity is currently 74%

the corn likes this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 02, 2020, 02:31:50 PM

Keeping tens of thousands of hogs fat and happy takes a lot of electricity, but Reicks View Farms has found a way to reduce its monthly electric bill while improving the environment.

The Lawler, Iowa, hog farm, which has 50,000 breeding sows and ships 25,000 hogs to market each week, is now earning money from selling solar energy to MiEnergy Cooperative, an electric co-op based jointly in Cresco, Iowa, and Rushford, Minnesota.

The 664-kW Reicks View solar array has reduced the farm’s carbon footprint, cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 333 tons. And the renewable power generated by the farm benefits the hogs, according to farm operators.


https://www.electric.coop/iowa-hog-farm-sells-solar-energy-to-electric-co-op/?MessageRunDetailID=2089913235&PostID=16662220&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io (https://www.electric.coop/iowa-hog-farm-sells-solar-energy-to-electric-co-op/?MessageRunDetailID=2089913235&PostID=16662220&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 04:40:53 PM

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/505652-climate-change-erases-millenia-of-cooling-study (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/505652-climate-change-erases-millenia-of-cooling-study)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 02:26:14 PM

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/505792-the-progressive-climate-plan-is-heavy-on-symbols-and-burdens (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/505792-the-progressive-climate-plan-is-heavy-on-symbols-and-burdens)

There is scant evidence that the plan’s domestic net zero emissions goal by 2050 is economically feasible, let alone a pathway to greater prosperity with meaningful environmental benefit. In fact, leading researchers (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920303603) think we’re a good half century away from potentially zeroing emissions in the industrial sector, without considering the recent economic downturn. Electric utilities (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/duke-dominion-southern-wont-hit-clean-energy-targets-at-current-pace-re/573769/) with zero carbon goals admit they don’t know how (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/toward-a-clean-recovery-rebooting-the-federal-energy-demonstration-portfol/579949/) they’d meet 2050 targets – but they know it’d cost a bundle – and yet the progressive plan calls for decarbonization of the sector 10 years before that. In addition, the plan’s mandate for all light-duty vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035 will require more carrots (subsidies) and sticks (regulations) to get there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2020, 10:18:27 PM

leading researchers

as opposed to following researchers?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2020, 07:43:41 AM

Yeah, the term is overused.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 04, 2020, 08:05:50 AM

Unseasonably hot here in Columbus.  Had a pretty mild June but now showing temps in the 90's for the next two weeks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2020, 08:17:52 AM

Very typical summer weather here, highs around 90°F with thunderstorms building up around 5 PM.  Mon-Tue-Wed highs forecast in the low 80s because of rain, then back to the usual right around 90°F.

Back in the day, I knew it would be a hot one when I had to use the AC on the way to work at 7 AM.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 02:29:19 PM

Before the advent of the car industry, over 15,000 horses were left to rot on the streets of New York every year. Consequently, automobiles were seen as an environmentally friendly alternative. Provided by FactRetriever.com

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 03:44:42 PM

Not to mention manure, which was calculated by someone to reach 30 feet in depth by 1920 in NYC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 04:07:52 PM

Not to mention that the invention of kerosene--a petroleum distillate--saved the whales.

Or at least postponed their extinction until Norway, Japan, (Russia?) and native Alaskans get through with them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 04:48:55 PM

progress

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 04:54:46 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 04:07:52 PM

Not to mention that the invention of kerosene--a petroleum distillate--saved the whales.

Or at least postponed their extinction until Norway, Japan, (Russia?) and native Alaskans get through with them.

Not just the invention, but the evil capitalist robber baron John D Rockefeller making it very cheap for the average American. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:01:51 PM

Jet fuel today is basically kerosene.

The ability to make high octane aviation gas provided a significant advantage of the US and Britain in WW 2.  The Germans, generally very adept at chemistry, had not mastered that.  Of course one of the octane enhancers was TEL, "lead", which was not a good idea.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:10:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 04:48:55 PM

progress

There you go.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:12:04 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 04:54:46 PM

Not just the invention, but the evil capitalist robber baron John D Rockefeller making it very cheap for the average American.

Yep.  The evil capitalist robber baron who was also the greatest philanthropist in history.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 05:14:18 PM

need more like him today

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:18:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:01:51 PM

Jet fuel today is basically kerosene.

The ability to make high octane aviation gas provided a significant advantage of the US and Britain in WW 2.  The Germans, generally very adept at chemistry, had not mastered that.  Of course one of the octane enhancers was TEL, "lead", which was not a good idea.

There's a YouTube channel called Greg's Airplanes that you might like.  He gets into excruciating detail about, for example, why the P-51D was better in these ways than the Bf 109K but not as good in these other ways.  Higher-octane gasoline was a player in that discussion.  The Germans had to compensate with water/methanol injection, but they only had a limited supply of that (5 minutes, maybe?) on board.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 05:21:25 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:12:04 PM

Yep.  The evil capitalist robber baron who was also the greatest philanthropist in history.

I was under the impression that the evil capitalist robber baron Andrew Carnegie gave away more, but that is from a faulty getting older memory.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:26:34 PM

Every WW 2 fighter had strengths and weaknesses, even the Me 262.

The P51D probably had the fewest overall and of course incredible range for the time.  The F4U Corsair was a very good airplane as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:30:20 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 05:21:25 PM

I was under the impression that the evil capitalist robber baron Andrew Carnegie gave away more, but that is from a faulty getting older memory.

I'm thinking that evil capitalist robber baron Carnegie was #2.
Per the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge, Carnegie gave away some $350 million.  Per Philanthropyroundtable.org, Rockefeller gave away $540 million.  All in dollars unadjusted for inflation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:38:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:26:34 PM

Every WW 2 fighter had strengths and weaknesses, even the Me 262.

The P51D probably had the fewest overall and of course incredible range for the time.  The F4U Corsair was a very good airplane as well.

I love the Corsair.  It's my favorite carrier fighter ever.  But it could not have performed the missions that the P-51 did.  It didn't have the range or the high-altitude performance.  Few aircraft that fought in the Pacific were great at high altitude.  They didn't need to be, as the Japanese didn't have any fighters that could operate at high altitude until the last few months of the war.
Emotionally, I like the P-47 more than the P-51.  I've seen a video--maybe on Greg's Airplanes--that makes the argument that the P-47 could have had near-P-51 range for escort duties had the USAAF invested in drop tanks like they finally did when the P-51 became available.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 06:08:57 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:12:04 PM

Yep.  The evil capitalist robber baron who was also the greatest philanthropist in history.

Lots of those back then. JP Morgan, Carnegie, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:18:06 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:12:04 PM

Yep.  The evil capitalist robber baron who was also the greatest philanthropist in history.

Well ya after him and Andrew Carnegie made their billions cutting the competitions throat.Then they tried out spending each other to heaven.Damn John D goes on to spend millions and a little bit in his home town of.....Cleveland

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:22:13 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:38:45 PM

Emotionally, I like the P-47 more than the P-51.  I've seen a video--maybe on Greg's Airplanes--that makes the argument that the P-47 could have had near-P-51 range for escort duties had the USAAF invested in drop tanks like they finally did when the P-51 became available.

Damn looked it up and the P-51 weighed more than the P-47 - would not have believed that by the looks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 06:23:53 PM

The US managed to design and build in numbers several very different very good fighter aircraft including the F-6 Hellcat and I think some F-8s made it to the Pacific.  The P47 was very creditable and large.  The P-38 was singular in design and performance, the Fork Tailed Devil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:25:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:26:34 PM

Every WW 2 fighter had strengths and weaknesses, even the Me 262.

The P51D probably had the fewest overall and of course incredible range for the time.  The F4U Corsair was a very good airplane as well.

Read some American pilot say the P-51 couldn't do quite what the Spitfire could do but it could do it over Berlin.Guessing he meant maneuverability

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 06:31:58 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:18:06 PM

Well ya after him and Andrew Carnegie made their billions cutting the competitions throat.Then they tried out spending each other to heaven.Damn John D goes on to spend millions and a little bit in his home town of.....Cleveland

Well, he was born in Richford, NY, but his family eventually moved to Cleveland.  Close enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 06:35:41 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:22:13 PM

Damn looked it up and the P-51 weighed more than the P-47 - would not have believed that by the looks

Check again, MrNubbz.  Per the Font:

P-51D, max takeoff weight: 12,100 lb

P-47D-40, max takeoff weight: 17,500 lb

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:45:12 PM

Just saw on a quick check the 47 was at 10,000 lbs and the 51 at 12,700 or sumsuch but didn't specify w or w/o tanks or ordinance

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 06:57:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 06:23:53 PM

The US managed to design and build in numbers several very different very good fighter aircraft including the F-6 Hellcat and I think some F-8s made it to the Pacific.  The P47 was very creditable and large.  The P-38 was singular in design and performance, the Fork Tailed Devil.

A quick search does not reveal the time/place of the quote, but this is from an edition of Alistair Cooke's radio broadcasts known as "Letter from America":

Quote

Goering assured his Fuhrer that the Americans 'can not build airplanes'. They're very good at refrigerators and razor blades.

IIRC, the P-47M was the fastest propeller-driven production airplane the U.S. has ever built.  473 mph.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 06:59:02 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:45:12 PM

Just saw on a quick check the 47 was at 10,000 lbs and the 51 at 12,700 or sumsuch but didn't specify w or w/o tanks or ordinance

10,000 lbs is "empty weight."  No fuel or ammo.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 07:02:06 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:25:16 PM

Read some American pilot say the P-51 couldn't do quite what the Spitfire could do but it could do it over Berlin.Guessing he meant maneuverability

Yep.
And the Spit could do it over northern France.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 09:40:00 PM

So, being as it is July 14 when the French did something or other, we went to the local French restaurant, which was pretty near full.  A table near us of 5 French ladies was conversing politely, we dined outside.  It was a bit buggy actually, but the food was quote good.

The history of the French Revolution is, interesting, and not exactly one of glorious glory.

Then they got taken over by a Corsican.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 10:10:11 PM

frogs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 10:12:08 PM

I got a great deal on a French assault rifle last time I was over, it had been never fired, dropped once.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 11:22:55 PM

That's just mean.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 11:25:44 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 09:40:00 PM

So, being as it is July 14 when the French did something or other, we went to the local French restaurant, which was pretty near full.  A table near us of 5 French ladies was conversing politely, we dined outside.  It was a bit buggy actually, but the food was quote good.

The history of the French Revolution is, interesting, and not exactly one of glorious glory.

Then they got taken over by a Corsican.

This is not my original idea--I have few of those.  Anyway, a theory of why the American and French Revolutions followed such different courses is that they are products of two very different varieties of the Englightenment.  The English version was anchored in common sense and the real world while the French version was based on anti-clericism, impossibly lofty ideals, and flights of fancy untethered to reality.  Also seen in the differences between English and French gardens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 11:27:22 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 11:22:55 PM

That's just mean.

And old,French Men grabbing gams not guns

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 07:33:39 AM

The American Revolution was unusual/unique in being started and led by very educated wealthy people.  Usually, the wealthy don't start revolutions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 15, 2020, 08:21:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 07:33:39 AM

The American Revolution was unusual/unique in being started and led by very educated wealthy people.  Usually, the wealthy don't start revolutions.

Well they used to be taxed - that burden has been thrust on the rapidly shrinking middle class

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 08:48:59 AM

I seem to recall that the higher income folks pay a significant portion of US income taxes each year.  The folks who mostly skate don't have earned income and get favorable rates, and no FICA taxes.

Thank goodness.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 12:21:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 07:33:39 AM

The American Revolution was unusual/unique in being started and led by very educated wealthy people.  Usually, the wealthy don't start revolutions.

I disagree with that.

It was a "conservative" revolution in the sense that it was about preserving rights that were being threatened as opposed to demanding new ones, but there were plenty of ordinary people who were in on the start of it.  Paul Revere, for example, doesn't fit the "very educated wealthy" label.  Nor does Sam Adams, who had attended Harvard but was a failure in business.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 15, 2020, 12:46:29 PM

If you haven't heard, here's Biden's updated and more ambitious clean energy plan: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-outlines-2t-plan-to-invest-in-renewables-electrification/581637/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-outlines-2t-plan-to-invest-in-renewables-electrification/581637/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 12:53:57 PM

All I see in that is more of the same BS. 

In 2008, we were gonna be all good by 2020. 

I'll be long gone by the time any of this happens. Probably my kids too. And theirs, if they have any.


:hum:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 01:00:34 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 15, 2020, 12:46:29 PM

If you haven't heard, here's Biden's updated and more ambitious clean energy plan: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-outlines-2t-plan-to-invest-in-renewables-electrification/581637/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-outlines-2t-plan-to-invest-in-renewables-electrification/581637/)

That "summary" is a bit lacking in detail, for my tastes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:10:50 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 12:21:55 PM

 "very educated wealthy" label.  Nor does Sam Adams, who had attended Harvard but was a failure in business.

well, he did attend Harvard

did he gain a degree?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2020, 01:13:22 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 07:33:39 AM

The American Revolution was unusual/unique in being started and led by very educated wealthy people.  Usually, the wealthy don't start revolutions.

Quote from: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 12:21:55 PM

I disagree with that.

It was a "conservative" revolution in the sense that it was about preserving rights that were being threatened as opposed to demanding new ones, but there were plenty of ordinary people who were in on the start of it.  Paul Revere, for example, doesn't fit the "very educated wealthy" label.  Nor does Sam Adams, who had attended Harvard but was a failure in business.

I'd also mention that it was unusual/unique in that it wasn't really a "Revolution". 

We didn't conquer Britain, depose King George III, and take over the British Empire. It was effectively a war of independence/secession, which is a completely different animal than a revolution. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 01:13:40 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 12:53:57 PM

All I see in that is more of the same BS.

It means he "promises" to spend a lot of money over some undetermined period of time on unspecific things that will work magic.

I'd like to see more of a general outline of an idea of a rough scheme myself, and of course a candidate who almost certainly would not be in office in 2028 can promise just about anything by 2035, and blame Congress/ the other party if it fails anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 01:14:31 PM

It was a revolt against local government, the governors appointed by the King.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2020, 01:31:04 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 01:14:31 PM

It was a revolt against local government, the governors appointed by the King. 

Yes, but it's still important to clarify the difference between a war of independence and, say, the French or Russian or Chinese revolutions where the existing rulers were completely deposed and replaced. 

The governors were expendable. King George III was never personally in danger from America, which changes a lot of the way a war is approached. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 04:01:25 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:10:50 PM

well, he did attend Harvard

did he gain a degree?

I think so.  My point about him is that he wasn't wealthy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 04:14:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 01:14:31 PM

It was a revolt against local government, the governors appointed by the King.

I'm going to disagree again.  Those governors (not appointed by the king in proprietary colonies) were mostly carrying out imperial policy.  They were the overseas government imposed at the local level.  But by 1776, the rebellion was not just against the local objectionable policy of the moment, but about the overall ability of parliament/king to impose objectionable policies.  George Washington didn't take command of the Continental Army after the Battle of Bunker Hill because of things the government of Virginia was doing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 04:22:37 PM

The result was dissolution of the governing entities extant here and replacing them with Articles of Confederation, obviously.

And when that didn't work, they tried something different.

The A of C make for interesting reading I think.

I guess when Southern Chad "revolted" and became a new country, it was considered to be a revolution, by some anyway, and with the Confederacy.  I suspect we understand the term might not be entirely the correct one, just as "civil war" is not entirely the correct one either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 04:29:50 PM

I didn't know that Southern Chad had revolted.  How'd it turn out?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 04:35:55 PM

Sorry, I had the wrong chad, the right one was not hanging.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 07:13:27 PM

:86:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2020, 09:21:00 AM

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/17/biden-has-a-new-climate-plan-thats-better-but-its-not-2-trillion-for-clean-energy/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/17/biden-has-a-new-climate-plan-thats-better-but-its-not-2-trillion-for-clean-energy/)

One green guy's take on the newest Biden proposal.  He wants a price on carbon, which apparently is not mentioned.

• Small modular reactors just have a different set of problems from large scale reactors, and don’t exist commercially. None of them are going to be viable at any scale by 2035, so they are a future pipe dream. Let private sector pockets pay for that. Why throw more federal dollars after it when there’s a need to achieve tremendous action by 2035? Biden is going to throw a bunch of money at them.
• Mechanical carbon capture and sequestration, including air carbon capture and captured carbon transformation, remains — after 50 years of investment and billions of dollars — a complete and utter waste of money. He’s going throw a bunch of money at it. Biological methods, especially low tillage agriculture — hinted at but not called out — and tens of billions of trees are the answer, and they get virtually nothing.
• Green hydrogen for power is another mostly dead end. It’s an incredibly lossy storage mechanism that is a faint hope for the natural gas industry which wants to provide lots of hydrogen from steam reformation of natural gas with carbon capture at the reformation plant, a fundamentally dead solution economically without federal money. So Biden is going to throw more money at it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 18, 2020, 09:46:38 AM

That article is mostly fair.

I agree that new nuclear (including the small reactors) isn't realistic. There's a chance they become economic, but I'm skeptical. The important thing is the extend the life of existing nuclear as long as possible - at the very least until coal is completely phased out.

There is a substantial amount of pumped hydro on the energy storage side, but apparently there are very few good sites left, and it's an expensive technology. At least one of these alternative energy storage technologies will challenge Lithium Ion.

I strongly disagree that hydrogen won't have a role. It has some disadvantages compared to guess, even once it's economic, but it's the best chance to decarbonize aviation and, shipping, and industrial processes. Maybe biofuels will have a role, but even the most promising startups there are focused on waste-to-hydrogen.

Mechanical carbon capture probably won't really get much attention anytime soon, nor should it. Tree-planting, changing agricultural practices, and the like are more cost-effective, of course. Related to that, if the plant-based meat really takes off, then that could be a big deal since vegetables, fruits, and grains are much more efficient to produce than meat. I haven't converted to plant-based meat yet (I used to be more hopeful for lab-based meat but now I'm not so sure), but I'm hopeful that over time it will become more cost-effective and taste just as good. If that happens, the meat industry will be drastically reduced.

His plan doesn't specify using the military to deploy the emerging technologies, which was I great idea that Warren had. I suspect that the plan is still a work in progress, overall, so other ideas will emerge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2020, 11:05:47 AM

As I've noted, I don't see much future for hydrogen.  It may serve specialized roles, maybe.

The biofuel core concept is replete is issues that to me look basically unsolvable in most cases.  It's a PR stunt by Exxon in my view.

We were supposed to have all this bioethanol now from cellulose, something which I KNEW would be a bust from the start.  Technically, these things sounds great until you look under the hood.  And we're stuck with ethanol from corn as it is, no way to get out of that one now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 18, 2020, 11:55:55 PM

if the saudis and the russians kill the price of gasoline it could end corn based ethanol

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 07:04:06 AM

Corn ethanol is just a farming subsidy.  It has little to do with the price of gasoline in reality.

I still recall discussing the EPA mandated targets for cellulosic ethanol, I think they still exist, and of course that was a massive flop.  I don't know how you can mandate availability and use of something that is not technically feasible.

I suspect we may see more of that as Congress enacts "green" legislation, I suspect a lot of it will be to set targets for something, preferably well off in the future, when someone else is in Congress.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2020, 08:43:47 AM

perhaps, but when demand for ethanol drops, the plants don't run.

when the price of gasoline drops, oil is cheaper than corn

less ethanol gets blended

when the plants don't run, they're in danger of being closed forever like the local restaurant

a friend of mine works in the accounting dept of an ethanol producer, he's looking at taking a pay cut to take another job because the future doesn't look good for his company 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 10:07:32 AM

The crops get planted, you can't unplant them if the price of oil drops.

And I imagine they have price supports for the corn.  The ethanol plants could shutter, or go off line, for a time.  The oil producers usually cut production and the price rises, as it has recently.

Oddly enough, ethanol is a good octane booster and they use more of it in premium than in regular, so you can get better mileage from regular than premium, depending.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2020, 10:26:13 AM

crops get planted, if ethanol producers are not buying corn, the corn price goes down

when gasoline is less than $2 a gallon and it costs more than $2 a gallon to produce ethanol, less ethanol gets blended

smaller refineries had received waivers as hardship to not blend ethanol.  Not sure what percentage this is overall, but it makes a difference

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 10:35:31 AM

Gasoline wholesale right now is about $1.22 per gallon.  

Looks like ethanol is maybe $1.74 per gallon.

https://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/question707.htm (https://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/question707.htm)

So, right now I imagine refiners are using less which means reducing supply, as you say.  Folks are also driving less as well.

Maybe this will shut down some of the wasteful gasohol production.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 10:40:29 AM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels-waivers/astonishing-trump-epa-backs-down-on-biofuel-waivers-in-blow-to-us-refiners-idUSKBN21C0YL (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels-waivers/astonishing-trump-epa-backs-down-on-biofuel-waivers-in-blow-to-us-refiners-idUSKBN21C0YL)

A bit old, but some stuff about these waivers in it.

My guess is if the market controlled this situation, the corn ethanol would be a thing of the past quickly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2020, 10:44:49 AM

I think when gas is over $3 a gallon and corn is less than $3 a bushel, it's a good thing

otherwise, not so much

the dependence on foreign oil isn't the issue it was back when ethanol got started

dependence on goods from China is more pressing today 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2020, 10:51:52 AM

I'm not for subsidizing anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2020, 10:53:48 AM

if the subsidy won't pay for itself in 3 years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 10:54:09 AM

One thing about summer weather here is that it is near constant, highs in the low 90s and afternoon storms, almost every day.

We went out for breakfast and ate outside and it was hot already, not unbearable, but hot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 10:55:13 AM

Some kinds of subsidies I can at least formulate an argument for their existence, the ethanol fuel thing is SO glaringly bad, the only real argument is the corn lobby, which is almost as powerful as the egg lobby, and that Iowa has an early role in Presidential primaries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2020, 11:04:48 AM

Iowa gets in on the green wind energy subsidies as well

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 11:07:54 AM

I'm still curious if I somehow elect to buy wind energy for my electricity how that changes anything but who gets paid.  The electricity is the same, the grid is the same, each electron may be motivated by coal, and probably is, largely.

Seems like a scam to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2020, 11:41:06 AM

I don't have a choice here

my provider is Mid-American Energy - Warren Buffet

my neighbors that live in the country have one choice - the Rural Electric Coop - about double the price as mine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 11:45:11 AM

It's cheap here, and I don't appear to have a choice in the provider.  My bill averages about $100 a month year round, maybe a bit more.  Only two sides are exposed to the elements, but there is a lot of glass.

We were over $200 in the house, mostly because of winter and the gas heating bill.  No gas here, except on the roof apparently, they have a hot water boiler, somewhere.  Hot water (and cold) are covered in the HOA, which is a bit odd to me.  No water heaters in the units, one more thing that can't fail.  Two heat pumps, no water heater.

The other nice thing is our wood floors creaked like crazy in the old house, not here, it's rein concrete.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 19, 2020, 11:48:40 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 11:07:54 AM

I'm still curious if I somehow elect to buy wind energy for my electricity how that changes anything but who gets paid.  The electricity is the same, the grid is the same, each electron may be motivated by coal, and probably is, largely.

Seems like a scam to me.

Basically it accelerates the investment in more renewables, and in some cases it reduces your bill.

For example, community solar programs are increasingly common in some states. These are basically commercial to utility scale systems located within the same state but often sited on brownfields and large rooftops like warehouses. People can subscribe for a portion of the capacity of the system and pay for the electricity produced at a lower rate than they would pay the utility. By the time that whole project is subscribed to, another community solar system gets developed and the cycle repeats.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 19, 2020, 11:56:43 AM

Iowa and Georgia are not deregulated so you only have no choice from your utility, unlike Texas, Illinois, Ohio, and most Northeastern states.

There is finally some push to change that in regulated states, though. It's called community choice aggregation, which has been highly successful in California but not in other states, because the other states that allow them are all deregulated. Now, though, AZ, CO, NV, OR, WA, and MI are all considering legislation to allow it.

The way it works is that municipalities or counties can take control over how their energy is procured, so that they can offer lower rates and/or higher levels of renewable energy. Because utility rates are set by the state governments, they can't really respond to this quickly. The utility is still responsible for basically everything else. Customers can still choose to just remain with the utility but generally there's no reason for them to do that. Because these programs work through government entities, customers can be assured that their rates will remain stable whereas in deregulated states, some of the energy suppliers are unfortunately quite shady and unethical by offering low intro rates before they get jacked up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 12:00:37 PM

The electricity I use cannot be tracked by to some specific source.  Simple as that.

I might think I'm being green by paying more for "wind" or whatever, but the source of my electricity does not change just because I sign up for something.

Unless I establish my own transmission grid that is.

Sounds like a scam to me, always has.  Now, if you run a powerline for that wind mill over there to my house, maybe I'll listen up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 12:03:25 PM

I read a bit about using hydrogen to power airplanes.  My general conclusion is that is a long ways in the future, decades, for obvious reasons, so I'm not going to get excited about it.  And yes, I read about some demonstrations of the technology, yay.

I read a bit about Biden's latest green proposals (they change about every 6 months) and am unimpressed, not surprisingly.  I see it as a worthless political document, not a serious proposal.  I'm sure if he's elected Congress will try and throw more money at the problem.

I'm also convinced it will make almost no different in the actual problem, nothing measurable.

But we can all pat ourselves on the back for pretending to be "green" ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2020, 02:05:55 PM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 18, 2020, 09:46:38 AM

Related to that, if the plant-based meat really takes off, then that could be a big deal since vegetables, fruits, and grains are much more efficient to produce than meat. I haven't converted to plant-based meat yet (I used to be more hopeful for lab-based meat but now I'm not so sure), but I'm hopeful that over time it will become more cost-effective and taste just as good. If that happens, the meat industry will be drastically reduced.

My concern is that plant-based meat is not a particularly healthy alternative to meat. In some cases, it's considered to potentially be worse health-wise due to high sodium content and high soy content [Impossible is soy-based, but not Beyond Meat which I believe is soy-free]. Then, some of them tend to be higher in carbs than meat, which may have its own health risks. Given that we've seen health problems caused by many of the supposedly "healthy" alternatives to other products (such as artificial sweeteners), I worry that plant-based meat will end up having a hidden flaw as a result of the processing and added ingredients necessary to make it taste like meat. 

Lab-grown meat could help somewhat with this, in that it would avoid the environmental impact without substituting a less healthy alternative. However, I also worry that it'll be able to be price-competitive with traditional meat, and that texture-wise it might end up being a substitute for ground beef, but it won't ever really be a substitute for a proper steak. 

To me, a better solution than creating fake meat is to try to reduce meat consumption overall. I don't want a Beyond Burger or an Impossible Burger. That doesn't appeal to me at ALL. I'll gladly grill up a portobello mushroom burger though. I don't view it as trying to replicate meat, either. I view it as a different--and entirely delicious--sandwich of its own. I don't go into it expecting a hamburger, so I'm not disappointed that it's not what it was never intended to be. If I want a hamburger, I'll make a hamburger. If I want a delicious sandwich without meat, I have other options.

There are all sorts of delicious ways to make meatless dishes that don't require a "fake meat" substitute. There are also tons of ways to make dishes which contain meat but where overall meat content as a portion of calories consumed is low--such as stir fry. Rotating things like this into weekly meal planning is a much better way to reduce meat consumption for either health or environmental reasons without subjecting yourself to the unknown of "fake" meat. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 02:34:14 PM

The lab made meat I've seen requires "starting materials", duh, which look to me to be expensive.

I don't worry about carbs in my diet, except sugar, which I try and minimize.

Some items I've read suggests the impact of the cattle industry and climate change is over blown, but of course one has to be alert to biased "studies".

We did once have a lot of bison (~60 million) on the plains, though their guts are a bit different than cattle (I see widely varying figures) of course.

https://agreenerworld.org/a-greener-world/a-convenient-untruth/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw3s_4BRDPARIsAJsyoLOWZyVQqeQdjqn2hC1-hYzdIFcVGUetBVRK9Jubg4toEkaFza2zPZgaApemEALw_wcB (https://agreenerworld.org/a-greener-world/a-convenient-untruth/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw3s_4BRDPARIsAJsyoLOWZyVQqeQdjqn2hC1-hYzdIFcVGUetBVRK9Jubg4toEkaFza2zPZgaApemEALw_wcB)

https://mrdrscienceteacher.wordpress.com/2019/09/21/bison-vs-cow-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ (https://mrdrscienceteacher.wordpress.com/2019/09/21/bison-vs-cow-greenhouse-gas-emissions/)

It is true that methane degrades in the atmosphere, so you have to figure what is being lost versus what is generated each year, and from what source.  Oil and gas dropping and landfills are major sources of methane as well.  As with most things, it gets a bit complicated trying to decipher.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2020, 02:55:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 02:34:14 PM

Some items I've read suggests the impact of the cattle industry and climate change is over blown, but of course one has to be alert to biased "studies".

We did once have a lot of bison (~60 million) on the plains, though their guts are a bit different than cattle (I see widely varying figures) of course.

https://agreenerworld.org/a-greener-world/a-convenient-untruth/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw3s_4BRDPARIsAJsyoLOWZyVQqeQdjqn2hC1-hYzdIFcVGUetBVRK9Jubg4toEkaFza2zPZgaApemEALw_wcB (https://agreenerworld.org/a-greener-world/a-convenient-untruth/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw3s_4BRDPARIsAJsyoLOWZyVQqeQdjqn2hC1-hYzdIFcVGUetBVRK9Jubg4toEkaFza2zPZgaApemEALw_wcB)

https://mrdrscienceteacher.wordpress.com/2019/09/21/bison-vs-cow-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ (https://mrdrscienceteacher.wordpress.com/2019/09/21/bison-vs-cow-greenhouse-gas-emissions/)

It is true that methane degrades in the atmosphere, so you have to figure what is being lost versus what is generated each year, and from what source.  Oil and gas dropping and landfills are major sources of methane as well.  As with most things, it gets a bit complicated trying to decipher.

Regardless of the impact on climate change, it is significantly more resource-intensive to raise cattle than it is to grow vegetables, as it relates to calories produced for consumption. We devote a lot more land to agriculture to support our meat-heavy diet than we would if it were more plant-heavy. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 03:00:40 PM

No doubt, in part because we use feed lots.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 19, 2020, 07:59:15 PM

Last I checked, it takes more energy to convert a pound of corn into alcohol than the energy that's in the alcohol produced by the pound of corn.  That is not a recipe for environmental friendliness, which was the claim behind the whole program.
No doubt corn-growers would suffer if the subsidy were ended.  As would the alcohol plant operators.  I don't like subsidies, period, but I'd rather have straight subsidies than phony-green programs like corn-to-alcohol.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 19, 2020, 09:53:59 PM

Ethanol is/was a bogus solution. No debate there (it was popularized before fracking made oil & gas cost-effective domestically), and conversely now many farmers / ranchers are being paid to put wind turbines and even solar installations on their land, which is a more stable and lucrative income stream for them.

As for meat alternatives, I agree that reducing consumption is the most obvious solution (which I have), just as energy efficiency is superior to renewables in terms of cost-effectiveness, but I still think that Beyond Meat / Impossible Foods / etc. could end up having a bigger impact compared to declining demand from people who become flex-/pesc-/veg-itarian/vegan, just as renewables are now having a greater impact than energy efficiency (and so will electrification before long).... I have also heard that plant/lab-based meats could be less healthy, but the main challenges are still cost-effectiveness and tastiness, and I suspect that the healthiness concerns will be resolved by the time those two are, as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 07:08:51 AM

Gasohol is a great example of how a Federal program once started becomes very difficult to stop even if everyone agrees it makes no sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 09:47:45 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/palihapitiya-teslas-push-toward-energy-could-make-it-worth-trillions.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/palihapitiya-teslas-push-toward-energy-could-make-it-worth-trillions.html)

Interesting perspective, perhaps all this happens with no government intervention at all?

If you combine home solar in a large was with batteries, a lot of folks could be free of the grid entirely.  How soon can that happen?  Much less distributed power.

The last time I ran the numbers in Ohio, the math wasn't anywhere close to working on solar only, no batteries.  I figured that was one reason why so few houses in the US have PV units, even in places like Phoenix and LV.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2020, 11:51:29 AM

The first active leak of methane from the sea floor in Antarctica has been revealed by scientists.

The researchers also found microbes that normally consume the potent greenhouse gas before it reaches the atmosphere had only arrived in small numbers after five years, allowing the gas to escape.

Vast quantities of methane are thought to be stored under the sea floor around Antarctica. The gas could start to leak as the climate crisis warms the oceans, a prospect the researchers said was “incredibly concerning”.

The reason for the emergence of the new seep remains a mystery, but it is probably not global heating, as the Ross Sea where it was found has yet to warm significantly. The research also has significance for climate models, which currently do not account for a delay in the microbial consumption of escaping methane.

The active seep was first spotted by chance by divers in 2011, but it took scientists until 2016 to return to the site and study it in detail, before beginning laboratory work.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/first-active-leak-of-methane-from-antarctica-s-sea-floor-revealed-1.4310660 (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/first-active-leak-of-methane-from-antarctica-s-sea-floor-revealed-1.4310660)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 23, 2020, 03:06:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 09:47:45 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/palihapitiya-teslas-push-toward-energy-could-make-it-worth-trillions.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/palihapitiya-teslas-push-toward-energy-could-make-it-worth-trillions.html)

Interesting perspective, perhaps all this happens with no government intervention at all?

If you combine home solar in a large was with batteries, a lot of folks could be free of the grid entirely.  How soon can that happen?  Much less distributed power.

The last time I ran the numbers in Ohio, the math wasn't anywhere close to working on solar only, no batteries.  I figured that was one reason why so few houses in the US have PV units, even in places like Phoenix and LV.

It's not quite that easy, but that's always been Tesla's long-term strategy. People just thought it would happen sooner, but they've really diminished their solar and storage businesses since acquiring SolarCity for reasons I still don't really understand, so SunRun has become the top residential solar and storage installer.

The increase in electrification could make gas infrastructure largely obsolete, but consequently, electricity demand will likely increase too much (even after accounting for energy efficiency improvements) for roof-top solar to be the solution for a lot of customers, especially non-residential buildings. Some of those facilities have and will continue to develop their own microgrids, but utility-scale systems are always going to be more cost-effective within the same technology..... A more distributed system could certainly accelerate the decline of coal, nuclear, and even gas generation, though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2020, 03:12:06 PM

We have strings of batteries in all equipment offices to power electronic gear for internet/phone/IPTV when the local power goes out and the chance that the generator doesn't run.  We used to be required to have a minimum of 8 hours of battery backup

expensive upfront and a maintenance issue ongoing with that expense

not looking forward to buying and maintaining a string of batteries at my home

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 04:05:35 PM

I still don't see a realistic path to combating CO2 generation fast enough to matter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2020, 04:45:50 PM

check back next week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 26, 2020, 10:32:50 PM

This goes to show that this really shouldn't be a political issue:

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/republican-senators-urge-mcconnell-to-include-clean-energy-in-covid-19-reco/582221/ (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/republican-senators-urge-mcconnell-to-include-clean-energy-in-covid-19-reco/582221/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 07:06:00 AM

I don't think a letter by seven Republican Senators indicates why this shouldn't be a political issue.  It is, it will be in the future.  Nearly everything is.

And in typical government fashion, their solution is to throw money at it and hope something works.  I'm unimpressed with such vague notional concepts.

Give me a plan, not some aspiration, but a real plan.  There isn't one, and there's a good reason for that.

I keep hearing how wind and solar are now cheaper than any other option, so why do they need subsidies?  Companies will obviously seek the cheapest option for producing their products.  Maybe some sort of regulatory reform is needed, I don't know.  Maybe some sort of grid enhancement is needed, don't know that either.

These vague notional aspirational bills to throw money indiscriminantly at stuff is stupid, to me.

Show me the plan, outline the cost, and explain how much it will reduce climate change.

Nobody does that obviously because the real answer would be depressing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 27, 2020, 10:33:40 AM

Throwing money at a problem works politically.  The people whose pockets the money fills will donate to your campaign.  The public at large thinks you've done something about the problem.

By the time it's obvious that the problem has not been addressed, you've moved on to bigger and better projects.

Better still, people assume that the problem has been fixed because the money has been spent, so they never notice that the problem has actually gotten worse.

See the entire U.S. Department of Education.  There should be a "Mal-" or "Mis-" or "Non-" as part of its name.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 10:37:54 AM

That's my take, exactly.  There is no coherent plan, as I keep noting, so Congress will simply spend money to keep people quiet, and of course use it as a club to beat certain other politicians with it.  

Anyone who calls out this "Green Stuff" gets labeled anti-science or whatever pejorative can be used.

I'm game for that.  

Governments spend a lot of money to create appearances, garner votes, reward their supporters, etc. without doing anything useful or profuctive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 27, 2020, 10:05:00 PM

The reason this matters it's a good sign that the Republican Senators won't stop whatever Biden wants to do (if only for clean energy) if the filibuster isn't overturned or even if the Democrats don't win the Senate. I'm giving up on trying to convert any of you from being skeptical / pessimistic, though....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 05:57:15 AM

Yeah, it is a good sign that the Senate will throw money at a problem, which won't get solved despite that.

My mind get changed with data, information, facts, logic.  I keep asking for a plan.  I keep noting there isn't one, and why.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:32:44 PM

this should turn the tide........... a real plan

France's government has announced new environmental measures, including a ban on heated terraces for cafes and bars.

Ecology Minister Barbara Pompili said outside heating or air conditioning was an "ecological aberration".

The ban would not come into force until after the winter as restaurants have been hard hit by Covid-19, she added.

All heated or air-conditioned buildings open to the public will also have to keep their doors closed to avoid wasting energy.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53552526 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53552526)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 02:50:04 PM

I'd be interested in seeing details on the % contribution of things like that, compared to heavy hitters like vehicular emissions, heavy industry, etc.  Maybe it's a bigger deal than I give it credit for?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:54:22 PM

I'm sure, every little bit helps, but......... not to turn the huge tide swell

heck, the pandemic shutting down the world only made a small impact

I do like the idea, that this small step is an actual thing.  Not just a weak "plan"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 03:22:27 PM

Every little bit might help in theory, but there's only so much "mind equity" or "confidence cache" that people have, to follow directives.  So you have to make them count.

Focusing on the 1% instead of the 30% is not only minimally effective, but it's dangerous because it can exhaust your political capital and end up working against you.

We're seeing something similar in the case of Coronavirus.  For example, telling people that ANY face covering can be used in a mandatory situation-- telling people to wear scarves-- is just effing stupid.  It does no good at stopping droplets, and it makes people angry, so there's not even any marginal utility gained.

Instead, a focused effort should have been made months ago to tell people EXACTLY which face coverings are helpful, and then to PROVIDE those face coverings when possible.  Scarves and loose bandannas and masks worn under the nose aren't doing shit, and some people are rebelling because they KNOW they don't do shit, to stop the spread of infection.  It's not only pointless, it's dangerous and works counter to actual goals and real targets.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 03:27:51 PM

so, since our leadership is severely lacking........... no real plan, no good plan, no decent message, people have zero faith...

We're ALL screwed!

regardless of the topic.......... national debt, pandemic, health care, civil rights, global climate change, whatever

We're ALL screwed!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 03:36:51 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 03:27:51 PM

so, since our leadership is severely lacking........... no real plan, no good plan, no decent message, people have zero faith...

We're ALL screwed!

regardless of the topic.......... national debt, pandemic, health care, civil rights, global climate change, whatever

We're ALL screwed!

Yeah, pretty much.  It's the political territorialism and tribalism and identity politics, more than anything else, contributing to the inability to plan, message, and execute.

Honestly, we do surprisingly well as a country, given all of our current flaws.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 03:39:21 PM

agreed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 03:40:26 PM

I've mentioned before, a real plan would lay out a course of action in some detail, how much it would cost, and how much that would reduce climate change.

Then we all could do a cost:benefit analysis and perhaps consider other ways of mitigating this thing that might be more efficient.

Instead, we just throw money at it, sign useless agreements, and pretend something is happening that is of consequence.  Maybe with a LOT of effort we could reduce global warming from say 3.5°C to 3.4°C.  With a LOT of effort.  If that were more widely appreciated as a fact (OK, I made up the figures), folks would be a lot more chary about these alleged plans and expenditures.

You can find what looks probably, best and worst case scenarios, on line in several places, and the best case scenario is very grim.  Forget about 2°C.  That has flown the coop already in realistic terms.  HAnd waving is not going to fix this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2020, 04:28:01 PM

For there to be any path forward, China and India - among others - need to get on board. 

Asia has well over half of the world's population.

In other words, it's not happening.

That said, I'm not in favor of hampering our own economy when this is a battle that cannot be won - due to the inaction of others. 

Sorry.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on July 28, 2020, 04:55:54 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2020, 04:28:01 PM

For there to be any path forward, China and India - among others - need to get on board.

Asia has well over half of the world's population.

In other words, it's not happening.

That said, I'm not in favor of hampering our own economy when this is a battle that cannot be won - due to the inaction of others.

Sorry.

Amen. 

China and India are ruining the world. Literally. Africa is a cesspool as well. 

Blame it all on the first world though. We gotta use plastic straws here, when literally something like 94% of all plastic pollution in the ocean comes from 7 or 8 rivers, and they are all in China, India, and Africa.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 28, 2020, 09:18:59 PM

China and India waited for us to lead. Now we wait for them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2020, 10:36:33 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 28, 2020, 09:18:59 PM

China and India waited for us to lead. Now we wait for them.

F them. Our pour leadership through the years enabled them. One of those "leaders" is running for the highest office in the world, and it isn't the current one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on July 28, 2020, 11:54:09 PM

At this point the EU & UK are leading on clean energy and decarbonization as a whole. China and India are trying to have it both ways with sending mixed messages about investing heavily in renewables (which they are) while increasing (or at least keeping) their coal generation. Southeast Asian and a few African countries are doing this as well, while the rest of the world has basically shut down any investment in coal and many of countries / states are accelerating their closures.

Again if you think we're doomed, I'm not going to change your mind at this point. For full disclosure I am getting involved in the CleanEnergyForBiden.com group, which is doing some great work. He wasn't my first choice by any means, but I do think he'll put the right people in charge of the various departments, at least.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 01:02:25 AM

I think that any plan that doesn't include nuclear energy isn't a serious plan.  Does nuclear energy have downsides?  Yes, it does.  But they are mostly down the road, and the people warning of the emergency and inevitable doom say we have to cut greenhouse emissions NOW.

And they haven't been serious for the last 20 years, or we'd have nuclear energy generating a large and growing percentage of our electricity right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2020, 08:43:06 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 28, 2020, 11:54:09 PM

For full disclosure I am getting involved in the CleanEnergyForBiden.com group, which is doing some great work. He wasn't my first choice by any means, but I do think he'll put the right people in charge of the various departments, at least.

Cool. Create more progrums and hire more people to do useless jobs while earning generous pay and benefits. Make the gubmint even bigger!!

I'm sure that will solve the problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 08:57:27 AM

Quote from: MichiFan87 on July 28, 2020, 11:54:09 PM

Again if you think we're doomed, I'm not going to change your mind at this point. 

I change my mind based on data, logic, analysis, facts, and results.

I don't change my mind because folks point to wind and solar as a growing thing, I know that, or that some town promised to be totally green by 2030.

I've asked for a plan, facts, substantive information, and I KNOW why no one can respond. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 09:14:51 AM

You can't swing a cat without seeing some plan or another. We've developed or been apart of all sorts of plans. The main problem is the plans tend to require leadership, long term commitment, sacrifice, and cooperation. These are not qualities our country has. Also the lack of working knowledge about science is an issue.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 09:42:39 AM

I've asked repeatedly for the outline of a general plan here.

I would like to know:

1.  How much will this cost (est.).
2.  How much would it reduce global warming and by when (using the models).
3.  What would it do specifically to replace coal, NG, automobiles, jet aircraft, ships, etc.
4.  Timing.

Just some general estimates would suffice.  I've looked in vain for answers to these points.  The KEY is point TWO.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 09:44:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 09:42:39 AM

I've asked repeatedly for the outline of a general plan here.

I would like to know:

1.  How much will this cost (est.).
2.  How much would it reduce global warming and by when (using the models).
3.  What would it do specifically to replace coal, NG, automobiles, jet aircraft, ships, etc.
4.  Timing.

Just some general estimates would suffice.  I've looked in vain for answers to these points.  The KEY is point TWO.

Google is a great tool

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:01:40 AM

Yup, it is, and I've searched for a "plan" as I've noted on many occasions.

https://cgcs.mit.edu/news-release-how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make (https://cgcs.mit.edu/news-release-how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make)

This site is interesting, this is IF every country meets its obligations under the Paris Climate Accord, which is a large if. 

"Because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1° C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2° C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6° C—far exceeding the 2° C goal."

“The Paris agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, but it is only a step,” said Monier. “It puts us on the right path to keep warming under 3° C, but even under the same level of commitment of the Paris Agreement after 2030, our study indicates a 95 percent probability that the world will warm by more than 2° C by 2100.”

And of course it is very dubious that countries overall will meet their targets anyway, but that's another subject.  China will meet their goal of doing nothing and probably exceed it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 10:06:12 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:01:40 AM

Yup, it is, and I've searched for a "plan" as I've noted on many occasions.

https://cgcs.mit.edu/news-release-how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make (https://cgcs.mit.edu/news-release-how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make)

This site is interesting, this is IF every country meets its obligations under the Paris Climate Accord, which is a large if. 

"Because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1° C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2° C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6° C—far exceeding the 2° C goal."

“The Paris agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, but it is only a step,” said Monier. “It puts us on the right path to keep warming under 3° C, but even under the same level of commitment of the Paris Agreement after 2030, our study indicates a 95 percent probability that the world will warm by more than 2° C by 2100.”

Looks like a plan to me, and the results substantial.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:13:00 AM

That looks like a PLAN to you?

OK then.  Some folks appear to be satisfied with vague notional nonexplicit aspirations and goals that will reduce temperature by an unmeasurable amount.

I suppose I am more quantitative, and like at least some general level of detail.

Hint, that in no way is a plan, in NO form or interpretation is that a plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 10:16:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:13:00 AM

That looks like a PLAN to you?

OK then.  Some folks appear to be satisfied with vague notional nonexplicit aspirations and goals that will reduce temperature by an unmeasurable amount.

I suppose I am more quantitative, and like at least some general level of detail.

Hint, that in no way is a plan, in NO form or interpretation is that a plan.

Buddy, I love ya, but you don't think the government can successfully identify black people. I'm exactly surprised if you don't think they can change our energy usage of the entire world over a period of decades.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:23:55 AM

The complete lack of any coherent PLAN is very telling in my mind.  That's because the folks who have looked at the problem realize we are too late in addressing it.

Nuclear is off the table.  No one can present a serious way forward with costs and benefits.  And the MIT group clearly shows that even stretching goals are insufficient.

I realize many here are not technically trained and perhaps don't understand what the term PLAN means.  it is not some aspirational setting of goals someday out in the future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2020, 10:27:19 AM

That is not a plan, but this is:

(https://i.imgur.com/LHjRwJX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 10:33:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:23:55 AM

The complete lack of any coherent PLAN is very telling in my mind.  That's because the folks who have looked at the problem realize we are too late in addressing it.

Nuclear is off the table.  No one can present a serious way forward with costs and benefits.  And the MIT group clearly shows that even stretching goals are insufficient.

I realize many here are not technically trained and perhaps don't understand what the term PLAN means.  it is not some aspirational setting of goals someday out in the future.

Again, there are no shortage of plans. There is a shortage of political will. Of course one paragraph about the Paris Accords is not a complete plan. To think so would be silly. But to think there aren't thousands of ideas bouncing around is also silly. Declaring nuclear off the table is just an example of the issue. Nuclear isn't off the table, it just isn't popular politically. Like with covid, all plans are more or less making tradeoffs and living with uncertain outcomes. None of the choices are popular, and so we tend to default to nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:41:33 AM

Why can no one here cite a plan?

And this remark about the Paris Climate Agreement is stunning, to me:  "Looks like a plan to me, and the results substantial."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:42:54 AM

Go ahead, find the best most complete an rational plan anywhere on line.

Post it.  If it provides how things are to be accomplished in general, how much it should cost, and how much benefit it would provide according to the models, it's a plan in my mind.

The MIT study group says the Paris TARGETS are worth 0.1°C by 2050.  We can't measure that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 10:43:27 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:41:33 AM

Why can no one here cite a plan?

And this remark about the Paris Climate Agreement is stunning, to me:  "Looks like a plan to me, and the results substantial."

Like I alluded to, there is a huge difference between a plan, of which there are many, and "a plan that satisfies CincyDawg," which has never and will never exist.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 10:46:35 AM

I think my criteria are very reasonable.  In order to do any kind of cost/benefit analysis, one needs an estimate of both.

Or, we can all just wave our hands and sing songs and expect politicians to DO something.

It's ridiculous.  And for folks out there to THINK governments are really going to tackle this issue is amazing to me, a complete lack of any rational analysis.

I liken it to the debt/deficit issue.  Politicians promise to DO something, without any coherent plans, and then of course if elected they do nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 10:50:57 AM

I agree, though in large part the politicians don't do anything because we don't want them to do anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:01:06 AM

All Cincy asked for was a rough outline of the steps needed, along with an educated guess of their costs and benefits. 

The fact that such a plan "has never and will never exist" is rather telling. You need to provide a helluva lot more information than that, just to acquire a small business loan. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 11:04:30 AM

Rock Dust Could Be Farming’s Next Climate Solution
The process, called enhanced weathering, could remove 2 billion tons of CO2 from the air while fertilizing soil
(https://thumbs-prod.si-cdn.com/Bj9k1kt5UdBERQpipkAgHGMnFnI=/800x600/filters:no_upscale()/https://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/91/c3/91c3f573-3d3f-4b90-a8f6-88648bf6b676/field.jpg)A farmer distributes lime over a field in the UK. A new climate solution would use a similar technique to spread rock dust. (Mark Robinson under Wikimedia Commons CC BY 2.0) (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Red_Panda.JPG”))
By Claire Bugos (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/author/claire-bugos/)
SMITHSONIANMAG.COM
JULY 21, 2020
8385237
For farming, the latest climate fix isn’t especially high tech or glossy. By spreading rock dust over large swatches of land, carbon dioxide could be trapped in transformed, scrubbing it from the atmosphere. If this technique, called enhanced weathering, were to be employed around the world, scientists estimate two billion tons of carbon dioxide could be removed from the atmosphere each year.

In a paper published in the journal Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2448-9.epdf?sharing_token=XokDLkVXz-oWPCOEaRrc_9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OtB5LS5Y5Cwumoumb5Vs9pGQp7NWqtO_367vUmB4Gw5fODg88EOTaJi1MG6eJBX5eUXorxyzbKsGS5LwVS15Grtx3pS-fhi-4AxWs61e0HQzPqujdvZzk-2nO-Mjq_5gHB1eTEq8fCth6DAiiG1hqK3mOGGl_4QZ_5ZsKq1OsqLWbc0io05ZHeMVSeqSWDHFSShg6F9VI9AOVHw4hk46MauI9JoLQ-d9jiMnxhwdxOLuBzlpUCew1eS1xDCS15yzbV5xumbZdOsUTEDjGUfFPcuP42BKosTEjQUtWtbOa8qS_CisADQzaL-zDTRNFybVo%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com) July 8, researchers at the University of Sheffield laid out the potential costs and impact of the process. If the three countries that emit the most carbon dioxide —China, the United States and India—adopted the practice, one billion metric tons could be scrubbed from the air.
Enhanced weathering essentially speeds up natural processes of erosion and chemical reactions using newly introduced minerals. During the process, rocks are crushed and transported to farmland, where they are spread over a large area once a year, reports Lyndsey Layton at the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/07/08/spreading-rock-dust-ground-could-pull-carbon-air-researchers-say/). When it rains, water dissolves silicate or carbonate materials in the dust. This cycle causes carbon dioxide to be pulled from the atmosphere into the solution, forming bicarbonate ions. 
Over time, these ions are washed into the ocean and form carbonate minerals, trapping the carbon for at least 100,000 years.

Though the technique could be applied to any large swatch of land, many farms are already equipped to spread rock dust due to the common practice of enriching cropland with crushed lime, writes Nathanael Johnson at Grist (https://grist.org/food/the-climate-fix-youve-been-waiting-for-rock-dust/). The minerals in the crushed rock could further fertilize soil, as long as metals and organic materials are not added to crop fields.

“Spreading rock dust on agricultural land is a straightforward, practical CO2 drawdown approach with the potential to boost soil health and food production,” David Beerling, director of the Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and lead author of the study, tells the Washington Post. “Our analyses reveal the big emitting nations — China, the U.S., India — have the greatest potential to do this, emphasizing their need to step up to the challenge.”

To meet the guidelines in the United Nations Climate Change Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement), some scientists claim at least ten gigatons of CO2 must be extracted from the atmosphere each year, the authors write. If the global surface temperature were to cross 3.6 Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels, scientists warn that the effects would be irreversible.

“We have passed the safe level of greenhouse gases,” James Hansen, a partner in the study and a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, tells the Washington Post. “Cutting fossil fuel emissions is crucial, but we must also extract atmospheric CO2 with safe, secure and scalable carbon dioxide removal strategies to bend the global CO2 curve and limit future climate change.”

Other methods of removing CO2 from the air include sequestration (https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-carbon-sequestration), in which CO2 from a factory is absorbed into a liquid or solid and stored. Enhanced weathering bears about the same cost, but has added agricultural benefits.

However, in order to meet the expected demand for rock dust, mining and grinding operations could require the same amount of energy as 10 to 30 percent of the CO2 captured, the study reports. To mitigate this, excess rock from industrial projects could be crushed and spread to limit the need for new mining.

The authors write that their plan offers “opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy,” but acknowledge that “success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia.”

Spreading rock dust on half the farmland in the U.S. would cost $176 per ton of carbon and $225 annually per American. That’s pricey compared to clean energy solutions that directly cut emissions. Solar farms, for instance, cost less than $40 per ton of emissions cut, according to Grist.

To clear the atmosphere of greenhouse gasses to the degree necessary over the next several decades, the international community will have to remove existing carbon in addition to cutting new emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 11:39:34 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:01:06 AM

All Cincy asked for was a rough outline of the steps needed, along with an educated guess of their costs and benefits.

The fact that such a plan "has never and will never exist" is rather telling. You need to provide a helluva lot more information than that, just to acquire a small business loan.

You misunderstand. Plans exist, but no matter how precise, detailed, and exacting, he will poo poo them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:46:57 AM

He isn't asking for one that is precise, detailed or exacting. He is asking for a rough outline of the steps that we need to take, and what they might cost and accomplish. If "plans exist" then it should be rather simple to drum one up that meets his criteria. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2020, 11:50:22 AM

There is no tangible plan right now. Predictions to decimal degrees are foolish at best.

The climate is not predictable, for a number of reasons. I use models all the time, to try and predict flooding. That's the best I can do, is predict. The outcomes are always different, for a number of reasons.

China (and others) will not stop using Iran's cheap oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 11:51:19 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:46:57 AM

He isn't asking for one that is precise, detailed or exacting. He is asking for a rough outline of the steps that we need to take, and what they might cost and accomplish. If "plans exist" then it should be rather simple to drum one up that meets his criteria.

Yes, let me do a bunch of work so I can be told it will never happen. Sign me up for more of that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:58:32 AM

Coming up with a rough outline for a course of action should be step one. That should have already been ironed out, before they tried to sell it to the public. "Give us billions of dollars so that we can maybe come up with a plan down the road" is not a plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 12:01:55 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:58:32 AM

Coming up with a rough outline for a course of action should be step one. That should have already been ironed out, before they tried to sell it to the public. "Give us billions of dollars so that we can maybe come up with a plan down the road" is not a plan.

Economists like carbon taxes. I would agree they would probably be the simplest and most effective solution. But taxes aren't popular, especially taxes where the entire point is to make things more expensive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 12:08:35 PM

Okay, so carbon taxes. 

After these carbon taxes have been implemented, what is an imprecise, ballpark guestimate on the time frame by which we can expect to see a halt to the rise of global temperatures, in accordance to the models? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 12:20:27 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 12:08:35 PM

Okay, so carbon taxes.

After these carbon taxes have been implemented, what is an imprecise, ballpark guestimate on the time frame by which we can expect to see a halt to the rise of global temperatures, in accordance to the models?

Halting it would be quite the trick. The Paris Accords aimed to keep the temperature increase under 2 degrees Celcius by 2100. From what I've read a carbon tax would be a more aggressive form of carbon reduction than what is called for in those accords.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 12:29:38 PM

So your plan won't yield much in the way of results if executed? 

Great plan. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 12:46:47 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 12:29:38 PM

So your plan won't yield much in the way of results if executed?

Great plan.

This is why I don't spend lots of time perusing the internet to provide plans that people don't want.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 12:52:33 PM

If you are trying to convince a country to spend billions of dollars in order to stop the climate from changing (lol), then the first thing that you need to do is let us know how exactly you plan to do that. Right now you are just asking for money, and you can't tell us how you plan on using it in order to stop the climate from changing. That's called a scam.

Until that changes, the only discernible difference between you folks and panhandlers on the street is that panhandlers will periodically employ good manners in order to dig some money out of the pocket of a passerby.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 01:17:32 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 12:52:33 PM

If you are trying to convince a country to spend billions of dollars in order to stop the climate from changing (lol), then the first thing that you need to do is let us know how exactly you plan to do that. Right now you are just asking for money, and you can't tell us how you plan on using it in order to stop the climate from changing. That's called a scam.

Until that changes, the only discernible difference between you folks and panhandlers on the street is that panhandlers will periodically employ good manners in order to dig some money out of the pocket of a passerby.

The carbon tax is designed to make it more expensive to use carbon based fuels. The idea is to impose costs now instead off passing them to our children and grandchildren. What we do with the tax money is obviously important but secondary to the tax itself. Right now, we live in the payday loan reality, where we are passing the buck down the line in order to get by right now. Who benefits from each scam can be judged in a couple centuries, I suppose.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 01:20:01 PM

You plan is to pass $0.98 to the next generation instead of passing the full buck. 

You are going to have to do a little bit better than that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 01:35:12 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 01:20:01 PM

You plan is to pass $0.98 to the next generation instead of passing the full buck.

You are going to have to do a little bit better than that.

Frankly I don't think it matters. While estimates seem to zero in on reductions of a third to fifty percent, I don't think it would happen even if we could completely halt it within forty years. It's hard and all we want is easy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2020, 01:59:21 PM

This country will be cancelled in 40 years. Or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2020, 02:04:34 PM

The world's biggest nuclear fusion project has entered its five-year assembly phase.

After this is finished, the facility will be able to start generating the super-hot "plasma" required for fusion power.

The £18.2bn (€20bn; $23.5bn) facility has been under construction in Saint-Paul-lez-Durance, southern France.

Advocates say fusion could be a source of clean, unlimited power that would help tackle the climate crisis.

Iter is a collaboration between China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US. All members share in the cost of construction.

Current nuclear energy relies on fission, where a heavy chemical element is split to produce lighter ones.

Nuclear fusion, on the other hand, works by combining two light elements to make a heavier one.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-53573294 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-53573294)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 29, 2020, 02:07:16 PM

There is a finite amount of fossil fuels.

Once they are all burned up then the damage will be done, and we will quickly adapt to our new situation.

It might be a few degrees warmer, and the coastline might have receded inland a little bit. Pretty tame compared to the Earth's previous transformation from a ball of molten lava to a ball of water-ice.

In the meantime the Sun will continue to increase in luminosity at it's current rate, until it eventually bakes the Earth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 29, 2020, 02:17:29 PM

"A few dark clouds appear on the horizon and you guys just go all to pieces,don't you?"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 02:24:41 PM

I obviously think "we" should consider the cost of a thing, and the benefit of a thing.  It is POSSIBLE the money should be spent on dealing with the problem instead of trying to reduce it's magnitude.  I don't think that is likely actually, but it's possible.

Until I see some sort of cost:benefit analysis that is reasonably positive, I am NOT ON BOARD with vague throwing money at the problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 02:28:20 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 29, 2020, 12:01:55 PM

Economists like carbon taxes. I would agree they would probably be the simplest and most effective solution. But taxes aren't popular, especially taxes where the entire point is to make things more expensive.

I actually might be persuaded to like carbon taxes.  And I agree that could be the best approach overall, especially since fossil fuel right now is very cheap.
How much tax and how much would that reduce CO2 emissions over time?  Any estimates, guesses, ideas, notions ...?

And those decreases in CO2 emission, how much impact might that have on climate change in °C?

I just had this sort of discussion with my surgeon, pros can cons of surgery (schedule now 8/10).  We run our lives on this basis.  Hey, how about we go to this expensive restaurant?  Well, it's a lot of money, do you think it's that good?  Maybe we should dine in and save money.  

Or what about a round the world cruise?  Or should I pay for first class on that flight to Europe?  It's nicer up front.  Yeah, but a ticket is $6K.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 02:30:21 PM

Of course, a carbon tax is regressive, something akin to FICA.  The wealthy don't use that much more fossil fuel than a poor working man with his beat up F150.  And of course if a plane ticket goes up 10%, the wealthy don't notice.  I wouldn't notice either really.  The guy out there fixing my plumbing probably would notice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 29, 2020, 02:31:54 PM

You seeing a urologist?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2020, 02:32:14 PM

regardless of cost.......... could this be accomplished?

world governments can print money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 02:38:13 PM

I think we could put a serious dent in CO2 production in ten years IFF we resorted to nuclear fission extensively, a crash program.  Of course, that can't be done in Europe nor Japan and is hypothetical in the US.  If WE really believed this was a SERIOUS issue, we'd be using this option, but we can't.

And of course, that "serious dent" would be US only, the rest of the world would at best stay even with today's levels.  Even reaching the Paris targets is dubious, except for China and India, who have no targets by 2030 of course.

So, the US should throw money at this with no plan and no idea of the projected benefit?  Count me out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2020, 04:13:41 PM

and a nuclear plant in my neighborhood

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 04:15:49 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 29, 2020, 04:13:41 PM

and a nuclear plant in my neighborhood

(https://www.mediaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Simpsons.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2020, 04:22:39 PM

there's a plant in Ft. Calhoun, NE that is about 70 miles from my house.

was shutdown in Oct of 2016

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 29, 2020, 04:35:47 PM

Too many drunks in carts piling up around the fence line

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 04:36:53 PM

Two more power reactors are slated to come on line about 100 miles east of me in a year or so.  Maybe.  I hear there were delays.

And cost overruns.

I was shocked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 03:05:35 PM

Utility-scale solar power is coming to Montana’s Big Sky Country, and the energy produced will help meet the needs of electric cooperative consumer-members.

Basin Electric Power Cooperative and Clēnera Renewable Energy have signed a power purchase agreement for the Cabin Creek Solar Project, which will consist of two 75-MW projects in southeastern Montana. According to Clēnera, the project will eliminate 265,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year and power 30,000 homes.

“Adding solar further promotes our all-of-the-above energy solution as we generate energy using a diverse resource portfolio including coal, natural gas, and other renewable resources,” said Paul Sukut, Basin Electric’s CEO and general manager.

The Cabin Creek Solar Project will be Basin Electric’s second contracted utility-scale solar project.

“Cost-competitive energy like the Cabin Creek Solar Project will be part of the energy mix we purchase from Basin Electric for our member systems,” said Claire Vigesaa, general manager of Upper Missouri Power Cooperative. The Sidney, Montana-based generation and transmission cooperative is one of 10 G&T members of Basin Electric.

The two new solar arrays will be built on 1,100 acres five miles west of Baker, Montana, in the service territory of Ekalaka-based Southeast Electric Cooperative.

Under the terms of the 15-year contract, both arrays are expected to be completed by 2023. Developers worked with Basin Electric and the local co-op to coordinate siting and transmission needs. 

https://www.electric.coop/montana-basin-electric-buys-solar-power-for-co-op-members/?PostID=17049460&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io (https://www.electric.coop/montana-basin-electric-buys-solar-power-for-co-op-members/?PostID=17049460&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 03:23:43 PM

I'd like to see nuclear and I'd like to see an end to fracking.

Also need to remove all the dams and levees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 03:26:12 PM

some dams generate green electricity

no carbon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2020, 03:53:32 PM

Large dams do generate electricity without carbon, but there is ecological damage associated with most dams, and I don't think any more would be built in the US (nor will existing ones be removed other than some smaller dams).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 04:03:16 PM

I'd guess the ecological damage from dams won't cause the end of human existence on earth as quickly as global climate change due to carbon

well, many experts have led me to believe this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on July 30, 2020, 04:27:03 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 03:23:43 PM

I'd like to see nuclear and I'd like to see an end to fracking.

Also need to remove all the dams and levees.

I like what Heinlein wrote in "Time Enough for Love"

there are hidden contradictions in the minds of people who "love nature" while deploring the "artificialities" with which "man has spoiled 'Nature.'" The obvious contradiction lies in their choice of words, which imply that Man and his artifacts are NOT part of "nature - but beavers and their dams are. But the contradictions go deeper than this prima-facie absurdity. In declaring his love for a beaver dam (erected by beavers for beavers' purposes) and his hatred for dams erected by man (for the purposes of men) the Naturist reveals his hatred for his own race--i.e. his own self-hatred. . . . .As for me, willy-nilly, I am a man, not a beaver and H. Sapiens is the only race I have or can have. Fortunately for me, I like being part of a race made up of men and women--it strikes me as a fine arrangement-and perfectly "natural". Believe it or not, there were "Naturalist" who opposed the first first to old Earth's moon as being "unnatural" and a "despoiling of Nature"  END QUOTE

And I believe there is a role for conservation and preservation of things in "Nature" and we shouldn't destroy things just to destroy them. But I find the "hyper" naturist unbearable and found these thoughts by Heinlein interesting.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2020, 05:21:43 PM

Badge thinks dams are bad for us humans.  He favors letting floods happen, and moving humans out of flood plains.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 30, 2020, 05:30:36 PM

Oh they can stay there just don't expect anyone owes you anything for doing so

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 30, 2020, 07:01:32 PM

Dams also contribute to beach erosion.

Unattended, every dam will end up at the end of a mudflat split by a meandering stream and with a waterfall down the face.

So said all the environmental engineers in the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering at West Point, ca. mid-'90s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2020, 07:04:30 PM

Here in CA, I drove up and then down nearly the entire length of I-5 through the state on my way to and from Oregon over the last week. 

Water is a huge issue in the CA central valley. Up to the point where I saw things along the road saying "Build more dams". 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 07:11:04 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 30, 2020, 07:04:30 PM

Here in CA, I drove up and then down nearly the entire length of I-5 through the state on my way to and from Oregon over the last week.

Water is a huge issue in the CA central valley. Up to the point where I saw things along the road saying "Build more dams".

Sounds like we got an ANTIFA sleeper cell on here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2020, 07:18:30 PM

I stopped well short of Portland lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 09:52:32 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 30, 2020, 07:18:30 PM

I stopped well short of Portland lol...

Likely story

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 08:56:52 AM

Dams certainly do silt up over time.  No question about that.  There was one near us in Cincy on a small creek prone to flooding, they came and dug out the lake, which was used recreationally and had turned awful.  It was nice again, for 50 years I guess.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on July 31, 2020, 01:28:58 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 30, 2020, 05:21:43 PM

Badge thinks dams are bad for us humans.  He favors letting floods happen, and moving humans out of flood plains.

I have no problem with people living in flood plains as long as I, as a taxpayer, don't have to bail them out when their house gets destroyed by a flood. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on July 31, 2020, 01:32:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 08:56:52 AM

Dams certainly do silt up over time.  No question about that.  There was one near us in Cincy on a small creek prone to flooding, they came and dug out the lake, which was used recreationally and had turned awful.  It was nice again, for 50 years I guess.

Talking about Winton Woods Lake? I live right next to it, it was amazing the differences after the dredging.  Only issue I had was the storm drain system went to the lake and the racoons used them as a means to get into my neighborhood and raid the trash cans.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 01:51:51 PM

Yeah, the wife and I would go there or Sharon Woods to walk when weather permitted.  I lived in Evendale.

The lake was pretty bad before dredging.

Sharon Woods lake was swamped by duck weed, which apparently makes ducks high.  Or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 31, 2020, 01:56:03 PM

I live next to a dam. I'm not terribly certain why it exists but it makes for a pretty walk each morning.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2020, 02:58:07 PM

Don't fall in.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 31, 2020, 03:18:35 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2020, 02:58:07 PM

Don't fall in.

I try to get my walk in before I get drunk

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2020, 04:03:25 PM

I try to get my drunk on before walking too far

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 04:47:01 PM

I just had my first EKG ever.  Kinda boring, was normal, doc agreed it was not diagnostic for anything.  It's on the form though.

Oh, this is the weather thread, my bad, it's hot outside.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2020, 04:52:25 PM

I had an EKG about 20 years ago.

mine wasn't normal, but nothing to worry about - the Jewish female cardiologist said I could live the be 100.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2020, 05:07:56 PM

I got freaked out a few years ago because once I started monitoring my heart rate (via a HRM strap first, then via my smartwatch) I started to realize that my heart rate was NOWHERE near the "220-age" guideline...

I was hiking with buddies and remarked my HR was 179, and they looked at me like "how are you still upright and alive?!?!" I was huffing and puffing a bit (we were halfway through a 3000 ft vertical climb), but I was fine. 

Couple that with some arrhythmia in my family history, and I was worried. This was right around the time I'd gotten divorced and met my wonderful [now] wife, so I was maybe not interested in my heart exploding if I kept up the strenuous hiking. 

So I went to a cardiologist, got a 24-hr holter monitor, followed by a stress test. Did the stress test and he tells me "you did much better than most of my patients", which should sound great but most of his patients are geriatrics with heart problems!

Long story short, apparently my peak heart rate is somewhere in the 203 range, where "normal" for my age would be around 178. 

Yet another area of life where I'm way out on the long tail of the distribution. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 05:31:39 PM

Let's imagine an analysis that shows the following as facts.

1.  Climate change is real and going to be dire.
2.  The only way to prevent this is a crash program to product electricity globally using nuclear fission reactors.  (Wind and solar can help to the extent possible, but we can't get to the goal fast enough.)

If those were accepted as facts, and there was not alternative, would you support Item 2 as a viable approach?

This is a hypothetical, if you want to claim these are not facts, fine with me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on July 31, 2020, 05:54:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 04:47:01 PM

I just had my first EKG ever.  Kinda boring, was normal, doc agreed it was not diagnostic for anything.  It's on the form though.

Oh, this is the weather thread, my bad, it's hot outside.

I had my first Ekg about a year ago, thought I was having a heart attack, turns out it was my esophagus spasming causing a lot of tightness and pain in my chest area.

I get the privilege of having my 3 "anal probe" in a couple of weeks. Doctors want me to do it every 5 years since my dad had colon cancer.  So far not even a polyp with the first 2.  

Very lucky, my sister and brother inherited all kinds of health issues, so far in 60 years none of them had shown up with me. 

Yes, it is very hot outside, currently 115

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 31, 2020, 06:41:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2020, 04:03:25 PM

I try to get my drunk on before walking too far filling out my score card

FIFY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2020, 09:51:55 PM

I have an eraser

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2020, 09:54:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 05:31:39 PM

2.  The only way to prevent this is a crash program to product electricity globally using nuclear fission reactors.  (Wind and solar can help to the extent possible, but we can't get to the goal fast enough.)

If those were accepted as facts, and there was not alternative, would you support Item 2 as a viable approach?

I would be a big supporter of #2 in this case

I'm a big supporter now of pushing wind and solar to the extent possible as long as the cost doesn't hurt too much.  How much is too much?  another good question

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 01:54:15 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 31, 2020, 05:07:56 PM

I got freaked out a few years ago because once I started monitoring my heart rate (via a HRM strap first, then via my smartwatch) I started to realize that my heart rate was NOWHERE near the "220-age" guideline...

I was hiking with buddies and remarked my HR was 179, and they looked at me like "how are you still upright and alive?!?!" I was huffing and puffing a bit (we were halfway through a 3000 ft vertical climb), but I was fine.

Couple that with some arrhythmia in my family history, and I was worried. This was right around the time I'd gotten divorced and met my wonderful [now] wife, so I was maybe not interested in my heart exploding if I kept up the strenuous hiking.

So I went to a cardiologist, got a 24-hr holter monitor, followed by a stress test. Did the stress test and he tells me "you did much better than most of my patients", which should sound great but most of his patients are geriatrics with heart problems!

Long story short, apparently my peak heart rate is somewhere in the 203 range, where "normal" for my age would be around 178.

Yet another area of life where I'm way out on the long tail of the distribution.

Back in my Army aviating days, when I had to get annual flight physicals, my at-rest heart rate was usually at 60, which is at the bottom of the acceptable range.  Occasionally it would be 59, and then they'd have to retest me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2020, 06:50:11 AM

My rest heart rate is in the 50s.

I don't think that is an issue with the 3rd class medical I had to have in my flying days.

I left my flight bag back at the old house, totally forgot about it, had two sets of headphones and my license and log book and other stuff.  I'm not happy with myself even though I don't expect to fly again.  If I get the urge, I can just pay an instructor to go up and poke around with me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 12:54:34 PM

I don't think that I was going to be grounded or anything with 59.  But technically it's bradycardia, and it would have required a waiver IIRC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2020, 01:02:34 PM

The 3rd class Medical for a private pilot's license is pretty rinky dink, and the pilots know which doctor to go see who lets you slide by without much.  Diabetes is an out though they may do waivers now.  About all they do is test your urine and take some basic vitals.

It is breezy here today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 01:10:46 PM

My senile senior U.S. Senator will turn 86 in November and he still pilots his own plane, so the 3rd-class physical must not be too onerous. He lands at the wrong airport, lands on closed runways, and scares the hell out of anyone foolish enough to ride with him.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2020, 01:13:55 PM

 I once landed in a soy bean field, that could be worse than wrong airport, but my options were limited.

We had a club member have a prop strike on landing and didn't notice it.  The tower called him to inquire what happened, he didn't notice.  I had the prop for several years, about 4 inches were bent back (C172).  The engine was checked out OK fortunately.

New props are expensive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 01:41:28 PM

How nose-low do you have to be to get a prop-strike landing a Cessna 172?

Or maybe he was in a 1000-fpm rate of descent and compressed the nose-gear as far as it would go.

Or both.

Anytime we would have a blade-strike with the main rotor the transmission would have to be torn down and inspected. Doing that cost more than replacing the blade, IIRC.

And when you are flying nap-of-the-earth, blade strikes happen occasionally.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2020, 03:02:37 PM

We're taught to land on the mains and keep the nose wheel in the air until it drops normally as speed decreases.  You have to land not only flat, but on the nose gear to strike the prop on the pavement, which is dangerous because of "wheel barrowing" down the runway.  Suffice it to say it's really poor piloting.  You'd fail your practical if you got anywhere remotely close to that, your BFR as well.  I can't imagine anyone on a 1000 fpm decent in a Cessna 172 anywhere near the ground.

The plane didn't have a transmission but the engine had to be torn down and checked for crankshaft issues.

The standard landing pattern is downwind at 1,000' AGL, then crosswind and then turn to final at maybe 500' at about 65 knots air speed.  Line it up, stay lined up, use throttle to control height basically, maybe drop flaps and put the nose down at that point and then flare out over the threshhold.

Maybe he had the nose down with flaps and didn't flare properly, you feel like you are vertical with flaps down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 04:12:03 PM

I've got 3-4 hours in Cessna 152s, so I know what you're talking about on approach with the flaps down.  In a helicopter, you are descending and decelerating at the same time, so you're nose-up on final approach.  In the 152, it felt as if I were diving to my death.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2020, 05:11:30 PM

Yeah, it's an odd feeling at first, and if you see you are short, you don't go nose up, you add power, which is counter intuitive.  But it works, amazingly well.

I took my flight test in a C152, I really liked flying that plane.  That's the one that quit on me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 06:23:29 PM

One of the things we did in Apaches was practice run-on landings as an emergency procedure in case of tail-rotor failure.  It was a shallower, flatter, more-level approach than a normal one.  Different from a normal helicopter approach, but still not the "dive" of a small airplane with flaps down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2020, 07:44:36 PM

The world’s largest experimental nuclear fusion project, one which may find a way to secure our energy needs in the future, achieved a key milestone recently.

On 28 July, a celebratory occasion marked the start of assembling major components that make up the fusion device.


https://swarajyamag.com/science/iter-the-bumpy-road-to-building-worlds-largest-fusion-reactor-and-indias-role-in-mega-project (https://swarajyamag.com/science/iter-the-bumpy-road-to-building-worlds-largest-fusion-reactor-and-indias-role-in-mega-project)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2020, 11:17:18 PM

Maybe by 2070, maybe, probably later.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 08:11:27 AM

by then it's too late and the world has come to an end

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 08:32:32 AM

I read several articles on ITER that laid out a rather daunting forecast, based on their own timing.  The hope to get to break even continuously by 2035, and perhaps have enough to start construction of a pilot power plant, this isn't a power plant now, it's a test bed, by 2050, and then if all goes well they could start a power reactor by perhaps 2060, maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 08:39:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 05:31:39 PM

Let's imagine an analysis that shows the following as facts.

1.  Climate change is real and going to be dire.
2.  The only way to prevent this is a crash program to product electricity globally using nuclear fission reactors.  (Wind and solar can help to the extent possible, but we can't get to the goal fast enough.)

If those were accepted as facts, and there was not alternative, would you support Item 2 as a viable approach?

This is a hypothetical, if you want to claim these are not facts, fine with me.

so, can we get there fast enough with nuclear fission?
Wondering how quickly enough reactors could be built and on-line in 10 years?
how many would be enough?  (1000)  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 09:11:24 AM

It would have to be a crash program, government financed, standardized reactor design, etc. (which is not going to happen).

We'd need in the US about 40 nuclear plants to replace coal (give or take).  You'd have to annihilate red tape.  And that only replaces coal (which would be a something).

We'd still have NG to replace, at least it's cleaner burning (less CO2 and NOx and SOx).  Replacing NG on the grid would be tough as it has advantages in start up and shut down times, but you could perhaps replace half of it, so maybe 100 power plants with 2-3-4 reactors each in ten years.  

Yes, it is technically doable, in the US anyway.  The impact on climate change would be marginal of course, maybe a tenth of a degree.  

If you couple this with a huge push to EVs like Norway has done, you might cut automobile CO2 in half or so by 2030.  This really highlights how tough this problem is when you cut to the chase.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 12:35:04 PM

Lip service is all we will get. No plans. Just bullshit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 12:45:56 PM

we will also spend a bunch of money for nothing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 12:53:41 PM

Already have.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 01:09:29 PM

throwing good money after bad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 01:19:42 PM

I'd be on board with a plan to eliminate burning coal to generate electricity, even if climate change turns out of be over blown.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 01:25:57 PM

https://thebulletin.org/2018/02/iter-is-a-showcase-for-the-drawbacks-of-fusion-energy/ (https://thebulletin.org/2018/02/iter-is-a-showcase-for-the-drawbacks-of-fusion-energy/)

https://thebulletin.org/2018/02/iter-is-a-showcase-for-the-drawbacks-of-fusion-energy/ (https://thebulletin.org/2018/02/iter-is-a-showcase-for-the-drawbacks-of-fusion-energy/)

https://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201904/voodoo.cfm (https://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201904/voodoo.cfm)

Once you read past the glorious claims and gee whiz visionary stuff, fusion as a practicable power source starts to look very unlikely.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 10:05:53 PM

so, as Utee says, "We're doomed"?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 09:30:54 AM

OSAKA -- What is the future of batteries? From smartphones to drones to electric cars, the current source of energy is the lithium-ion battery. But startups in Japan are battling to create high-performance power packs that could become the next global standard.

In the port city of Yokohama, a company's phone never stops ringing.

"Can we test the performance?"

"We want to form a partnership."

On the other end of the line are U.S. and European car and drone makers. They seek to try out new batteries or to collaborate with 3Dom, a startup that emerged out of Tokyo Metropolitan University in 2014.

In the beginning, it was a one-man show. Kiyoshi Kanamura, a professor at the university, was 3Dom's lone engineer. Since then, engineers from major appliance companies, such as Panasonic, and carmakers have gathered under him, lured by the promise of pursuing new activities.

Now there are about 70 engineer colleagues, half of whom joined during the past year.


https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Japan-s-battery-startups-take-the-world-beyond-lithium-ion (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Japan-s-battery-startups-take-the-world-beyond-lithium-ion)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 09:54:11 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 12:45:56 PM

 money for nothing

Where are the Chicks for free?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 09:57:16 AM

Had virtually no rain for a month.'It's rained on/off continously since thursday night.How the folks down on the farm are fairing well

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 10:01:46 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 09:54:11 AM

Where are the Chicks for free?

I was going to bring up that song on the stream of crap thread

not politically correct, insensitive to Boy George

1985 was a different time

a time for Boomers 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 10:30:20 AM

I attended a seminar given by the Duracell folks years ago.  I don't recall much of it, but a salient point was the challenge of stabilizing that much chemical energy in a limited volume.  They had potential chemistries that were impressive, on paper, but simply unstable, or they had other issues (recharge time, deep cycle issues, etc.)

And cost of course.

We were supposed to collaborate with them, but as is usually the case, smart people don't often have decent ideas in a field they don't know where other smart people have worked for decades.

Not being a smart people I sat on my hands.

Not many takers for my nuclear proposition, which I think is a sign of the obvious.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 04:03:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 10:01:46 AM

1985 was a different time

a time for Boomers 

And Da'Bearssss

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2020, 09:11:11 PM

Phoenix is going to set a new record of 110+ degree days in one summer over this weekend.  And there's still a whole lotta August left to go.  
Fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2020, 11:23:40 PM

we've been hotter than usual here since the beginning of June

folks in Zona get little empathy, it's an F ing dessert!!!!

it's gonna be unbearably hot there, temps over 110 are not unusual

have fun!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on August 07, 2020, 11:31:21 PM

As I tease my folks, when we have perfect mornings low 50s in early August,  somewhere out West they are cooking. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 10:29:16 AM

MidAmerican Energy Company's coal-fired power plants south of Sioux City have lost $27.5 million over the last five years, the Sierra Club said in a study released Wednesday.

Low energy prices in 2020 have only worsened the performance of MidAmerican's Port Neal plants, which the Sierra Club says are the most expensive in the utility's coal fleet in Iowa.

The Sierra Club report, based on analysis of MidAmerican’s data, shows that by committing to retire both plants by 2023, MidAmerican could save its customers $92 million, the environmental group said.

“Anyone who’s visited MidAmerican’s website has probably seen the wind turbines touted on the homepage. But all that new wind is an addition to, not a replacement of, dirty coal generation," Katie Rock, campaign representative for Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign in Iowa, said in a statement. "MidAmerican has not even considered whether retiring its existing coal plants could provide savings to customers. So we did the math for them. It would."


https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/sierra-club-midamerican-coal-fired-plants-near-sioux-city-lost-27-5m-in-last-5/article_995fd0c9-3373-52b9-a389-1e4c142a4a4c.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1 (https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/sierra-club-midamerican-coal-fired-plants-near-sioux-city-lost-27-5m-in-last-5/article_995fd0c9-3373-52b9-a389-1e4c142a4a4c.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 13, 2020, 07:06:04 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 10:29:16 AM

MidAmerican Energy Company's coal-fired power plants south of Sioux City have lost $27.5 million over the last five years, the Sierra Club said in a study released Wednesday.

Low energy prices in 2020 have only worsened the performance of MidAmerican's Port Neal plants, which the Sierra Club says are the most expensive in the utility's coal fleet in Iowa.

The Sierra Club report, based on analysis of MidAmerican’s data, shows that by committing to retire both plants by 2023, MidAmerican could save its customers $92 million, the environmental group said.

“Anyone who’s visited MidAmerican’s website has probably seen the wind turbines touted on the homepage. But all that new wind is an addition to, not a replacement of, dirty coal generation," Katie Rock, campaign representative for Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign in Iowa, said in a statement. "MidAmerican has not even considered whether retiring its existing coal plants could provide savings to customers. So we did the math for them. It would."


https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/sierra-club-midamerican-coal-fired-plants-near-sioux-city-lost-27-5m-in-last-5/article_995fd0c9-3373-52b9-a389-1e4c142a4a4c.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1 (https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/sierra-club-midamerican-coal-fired-plants-near-sioux-city-lost-27-5m-in-last-5/article_995fd0c9-3373-52b9-a389-1e4c142a4a4c.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1)

I wonder if there's some off-the-books money being exchanged between Big Coal and MidAmerican Energy.
From an environmental perspective, everybody would like to see a decrease (heading toward a halt) in coal-fired electrical generation.
But a lot of livelihoods depend on the coal industry.  It's easy to disregard those livelihoods, as folks in Appalachia don't have much support among the opinion-generators of our land.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2020, 06:57:51 AM

Wyoming is the main coal state

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2020, 11:29:23 AM

Cowboys need jobs and $$$ too

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 08:59:43 AM

https://www.thegwpf.com/green-no-more-china-set-for-massive-coal-expansion/ (https://www.thegwpf.com/green-no-more-china-set-for-massive-coal-expansion/)

However, its coal and power industry groups are proposing further expansion to capacity of 1,200 to 1,400 gigawatts by 2035, according to the report. Should that be adopted, China alone would have more than triple the limit on worldwide coal power determined by the Paris climate agreement to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), GEM said.

Worldwide coal-power capacity grew by almost 35 gigawatts from 2018 through June 2019 as an increase in China’s fleet offset a decline of 8.1 gigawatts in other countries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2020, 09:03:12 AM

Nuke China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 09:18:31 AM

Well, while we here in the US "debate" what to do and throw money at the problem, China and India pay lip service.  What the US can really "DO" is minimal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2020, 09:43:59 AM

we (the government) more throw money at folks who probably have more than their share than at the issue

it's merely a reason to pass out $$$ to folks of influence

Warren Buffet can get by w/o more government $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 09:47:26 AM

It seems to be a superiority thing, anyone who questions the program is an ignorant "denier", that's easier than discussing the topic obviously.

My step son in law cited Al Gore's movie when claiming CO2 levels were higher than they had ever been, when I meekly tried to correct that notion.

We're going to run the experiment, no matter who gets elected.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2020, 10:15:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 09:47:26 AM

It seems to be a superiority thing, anyone who questions the program is an ignorant "denier", that's easier than discussing the topic obviously.

My step son in law cited Al Gore's movie when claiming CO2 levels were higher than they had ever been, when I meekly tried to correct that notion.

We're going to run the experiment, no matter who gets elected.

That's how it is today.

Meanwhile, probably 230 pages ago, I made a post about how if China are not board, nothing "we" do will make a difference. Those two countries combine to make up > 1/3 of the world population.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 16, 2020, 10:18:57 AM

Most folk that deploy the term "science denier" are the same folks that believe that there are over three dozen genders. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 10:24:42 AM

I doubt most folks think that.  Maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 16, 2020, 10:29:20 AM

I didn't say that most folks think that, I said that most folk who deploy the term "science denier" think that. And while it was obviously couched in a little bit of hyperbole, the point is that they often think that there is more than two genders, and in many instances they believe that there are more than three genders, and sizable portion of the ones that believe that there are more than three genders believe that there are a LOT more than three genders, and their opinion on the matter is obviously not rooted in science. Unless of course you include junk science. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2020, 10:33:35 AM

no input needed from knuckle dragging mouth breathers

just fork over the money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 16, 2020, 02:03:26 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 16, 2020, 10:29:20 AM

I didn't say that most folks think that, I said that most folk who deploy the term "science denier" think that. And while it was obviously couched in a little bit of hyperbole, the point is that they often think that there is more than two genders, and in many instances they believe that there are more than three genders, and sizable portion of the ones that believe that there are more than three genders believe that there are a LOT more than three genders, and their opinion on the matter is obviously not rooted in science. Unless of course you include junk science.

I read that some on-line entity (Google? Facebook? Snapchat? IDK) was ready to recognize differentiated pronouns for 51 genders.
That would put your measly 3 dozen genders in the shade.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 04:25:52 PM

I saw somewhere what the impact would be if the US and the EU met all their obligations under Paris.  The impact was well under measurable.  I read also what the impact would be if both entities went to zero carbon by 2030, and again the impact was not measurable.

I understand why China and India want their share of the total CO2 production over time, but it's not leading to any solution (not that there is a real solution).

The main issue I've noted many times, we have not practicable plan or means to do much of anything at all besides a tenth or so, maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2020, 05:04:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 04:25:52 PM

I saw somewhere what the impact would be if the US and the EU met all their obligations under Paris.  The impact was well under measurable.  I read also what the impact would be if both entities went to zero carbon by 2030, and again the impact was not measurable.

I understand why China and India want their share of the total CO2 production over time, but it's not leading to any solution (not that there is a real solution).

The main issue I've noted many times, we have not practicable plan or means to do much of anything at all besides a tenth or so, maybe.

Any chance those studies also included economic impact to EU and USA?  Because that's where the rubber meets the road.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 05:15:47 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 16, 2020, 05:04:47 PM

Any chance those studies also included economic impact to EU and USA?  Because that's where the rubber meets the road.

They don't, because there is no plan, so we couldn't estimate the impact on spending and higher costs for energy of course.  But, it would be bad obviously, unless you just did some lip service (which is what happens).

Cost:benefit ratios.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2020, 05:37:30 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 05:15:47 PM

Cost:benefit ratios.

How do they work???
:)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 05:59:06 AM

This is an ideal "cause" for government to throw money out there, probably to reward certain groups, in the expectation (not really) of doing something real.  Down the road, no one will notice of course reality, or the folks throwing money will be long out of office (or not).

Asking the hard pointed questions is not appreciated in part because no one has answers to them, it's just hand waving and "wind and solar" out the yin yang coupled with "you are a science denier" and "she is paid by Exxon".

I'm tired, Boss.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 08:39:23 AM

I've been called a denier, because I ask questions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 08:43:23 AM

I feel the opposite - it's all well don't pay attention, it's no big deal, what can you do, don't even try.  There's no plan from the climate changing folks - it's all just stay the course and if we are screwed we are screwed light up another cigar.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 08:48:14 AM

Well, there is no plan.

Climate change is a problem. We all know this. How to change it is the question, and nobody seems to be able to come up with an answer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 08:53:50 AM

This cost:benefit question is something we ALL ask ourselves, daily.  It's a core part of how we function.

So, I think it prudent to inquire when folks are talking about spending hundreds of billions of borrowed dollars.  (And yes, I ask it about our military spending as well.)

Otherwise, we're expected to just blindly sheep along saying "Well, we have to do something."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 08:54:53 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 08:48:14 AM

Well, there is no plan.

Climate change is a problem. We all know this. How to change it is the question, and nobody seems to be able to come up with an answer.

This isn't true.  Koch Industries (and similar) has spent a tremendous amount of time and money to question whether it is a problem and prevent any action on it. Which makes sense - Koch industries makes a tremendous amount of money from fossil fuels and it would be dumb of them to support a plan which limits their own profit. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 08:56:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 08:53:50 AM

This cost:benefit question is something we ALL ask ourselves, daily.  It's a core part of how we function.

So, I think it prudent to inquire when folks are talking about spending hundreds of billions of borrowed dollars.  (And yes, I ask it about our military spending as well.)

Otherwise, we're expected to just blindly sheep along saying "Well, we have to do something."

We are doing something one way or another.  Status quo is often phrased as "not doing something" but it is still doing something.  What is the cost/benefit analysis of our current plan?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 08:58:21 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 08:54:53 AM

This isn't true.  Koch Industries (and similar) has spent a tremendous amount of time and money to question whether it is a problem and prevent any action on it. Which makes sense - Koch industries makes a tremendous amount of money from fossil fuels and it would be dumb of them to support a plan which limits their own profit.

We're past this point, in this discussion.  To claim there is some plan is simply false.  If there is one, then cite it.

There is no "current plan" either.  And what little is being done is going to produce a result we cannot measure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 09:10:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 08:58:21 AM

We're past this point, in this discussion.  To claim there is some plan is simply false.  If there is one, then cite it.

There is no "current plan" either.  And what little is being done is going to produce a result we cannot measure.

I've already cited plans and it isn't difficult to find more. It's easy to conflate "there is no plan" with "we aren't following a plan" and that is what is happening here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:16:47 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 09:10:34 AM

I've already cited plans and it isn't difficult to find more. It's easy to conflate "there is no plan" with "we aren't following a plan" and that is what is happening here.

You have not cited plans, ever, at all, in this thread.

Period.

I've outlined what ANY plan should contained several times.  None of your alleged "plans" do any of that, they are just hand waving notions, PROCESS instead of RESULTS.

And I'm being generous calling them hand waving notions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 09:20:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:16:47 AM

You have not cited plans, ever, at all, in this thread.

Period.

I've outlined what ANY plan should contained several times.  None of your alleged "plans" do any of that, they are just hand waving notions, PROCESS instead of RESULTS.

And I'm being generous calling them hand waving notions.

Well which is it? I've cited no plans? Or the plans I've cited don't meet your standards?

In any event any plan must really only do one thing. The amount of carbon in our atmosphere is going up, and we need it to start going down. All plans must start there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:27:31 AM

Apparently you don't understand the term "plan".  You have not cited anything remotely like a plan.

You are lying in claiming you have.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 09:28:43 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 09:20:32 AM

Well which is it? I've cited no plans? Or the plans I've cited don't meet your standards?

In any event any plan must really only do one thing. The amount of carbon in our atmosphere is going up, and we need it to start going down. All plans must start there.

In Beijing? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 09:34:11 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 09:28:43 AM

In Beijing?

Do you think reducing climate change was a big part of our most recent trade deal with China?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:39:10 AM

The core reason there is no plan is that it's not practicable to make enough impact on climate change with any realistic approach to generate a different that we can measure.  This is OBVIOUS and well documented.  Whatever we spend, whatever we DO, is not going to matter longer term in any measurable sense.

That is why no one talks about this, or wants to discuss it.  They focus on the sky is falling we have to DO something and don't want to confront the FACT that the horse is out of the barn.  We could spend huge amounts and the impact would be tiny, not measurable.

We need a realistic approach that deals with the actual problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 09:42:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:39:10 AM

The core reason there is no plan is that it's not practicable to make enough impact on climate change with any realistic approach to generate a different that we can measure.  This is OBVIOUS and well documented.  Whatever we spend, whatever we DO, is not going to matter longer term in any measurable sense.

That is why no one talks about this, or wants to discuss it.  They focus on the sky is falling we have to DO something and don't want to confront the FACT that the horse is out of the barn.  We could spend huge amounts and the impact would be tiny, not measurable.

We need a realistic approach that deals with the actual problem.

Literally all of that is false

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:43:43 AM

Literally all of that is TRUE, you just don't like reading it, so you claim it's all false.  

This entire thread has been largely about how there is no plan and why there is no plan and that whatever expensive steps we take won't matter.  And I have backed it up with clear citations of sources that are NOT "deniers".

Unlike SOME here who claim there are many plans but can't cite anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 10:00:44 AM

I've yet to see anything even coming close to the idea that anything we do can't have any impact. It's a silly notion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:03:21 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 10:00:44 AM

I've yet to see anything even coming close to the idea that anything we do can't have any impact. It's a silly notion.

I clearly stated no MEASURABLE impact.  And I have cited analyses in support of that in this thread, unlike your "plans".

So it's hardly a silly notion, it's a simple uncomfortable truth.

Of course, if you prefer the process over the results, anything would be fine. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 10:03:36 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 09:34:11 AM

Do you think reducing climate change was a big part of our most recent trade deal with China?

What does "reducing climate change" mean?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 10:04:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:03:21 AM

I clearly stated no MEASURABLE impact.  And I have cited analyses in support of that in this thread, unlike your "plans".

So it's hardly a silly notion, it's a simple uncomfortable truth.

Of course, if you prefer the process over the results, anything would be fine.

Impact. Measurable Impact. It's silly. That notion violates basic laws of physics. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 10:05:01 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 10:03:36 AM

What does "reducing climate change" mean?

It means, for practical purposes, reducing carbon emissions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:05:25 AM

http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422 (http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422)

This is if every Paris Accord target is met, which is VERY unlikely to happen of course.

Assuming a climate system response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that’s of median strength, the three scenarios reduce the SAT in 2100 between 0.6 and 1.1 C relative to the “no climate policy” case. But because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1 C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2 C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6 C — far exceeding the 2 C goal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 10:07:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:05:25 AM

http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422 (http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422)

This is if every Paris Accord target is met, which is VERY unlikely to happen of course.

Assuming a climate system response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that’s of median strength, the three scenarios reduce the SAT in 2100 between 0.6 and 1.1 C relative to the “no climate policy” case. But because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1 C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2 C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6 C — far exceeding the 2 C goal.

All of that looks like measurable impact to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:09:24 AM

You are hopeless, it's entertaining.

You think a reduction in SAT of 0.1°C is measurable?

It isn't.  At all.  Period.

You should have taken a couple more science classes, maybe, back in the day.  Maybe not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:13:51 AM

So, it's basically moot whether countries actually meet the woefully inadequate Paris targets of course, but it's interesting to see how few are on tract to do even that.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/few-countries-on-track-to-meet-paris-climate-goals/ (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/few-countries-on-track-to-meet-paris-climate-goals/)

Bill Hare of the research think tank Climate Analytics (https://climateanalytics.org/) says most countries are not on track. Climate Analytics partners on a project called the Climate Action Tracker (https://climateactiontracker.org/). It analyzes the impact of climate policies in 32 countries that produce about 80% of global emissions.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 10:14:05 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:09:24 AM

You are hopeless, it's entertaining.

You think a reduction in SAT of 0.1°C is measurable?

It isn't.  At all.  Period.

You should have taken a couple more science classes, maybe, back in the day.  Maybe not.

I took just enough to realize that measuring something means you end up with a measurable result.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 10:19:32 AM

Reposted:

Worldwide coal-power capacity grew by almost 35 gigawatts from 2018 through June 2019 as an increase in China’s fleet offset a decline of 8.1 gigawatts in other countries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:23:41 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 10:14:05 AM

I took just enough to realize that measuring something means you end up with a measurable result.

We cannot measure mean global temperature within plus or minus 0.1°C, ergo, that difference is not measurable.  Maybe you did not know that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:30:59 AM

https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/even-climate-progressive-nations-fall-far-short-of-paris-agreement-targets/ (https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/even-climate-progressive-nations-fall-far-short-of-paris-agreement-targets/)

MADRID (SPAIN): Scientists at the World Meteorological Organisation warn that the world is no where near meeting the Paris Agreement target of keeping temperature increase to well below 2 degrees C. Instead the projections show that global temperatures are on track to increase by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/world-nowhere-near-meeting-paris-agreement-targets-experts/articleshow/72353492.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/world-nowhere-near-meeting-paris-agreement-targets-experts/articleshow/72353492.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)

The reason countries sign these agreements is that it avoids having to DO something in reality.  They hope later it's someone else's problem.  And the Paris targets are not sufficient of course.


https://www.newscientist.com/article/2224539-un-report-reveals-how-hard-it-will-be-to-meet-climate-change-targets/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2224539-un-report-reveals-how-hard-it-will-be-to-meet-climate-change-targets/)

UNEP says existing Paris pledges will see 3 to 3.2°C of warming, and the plans will have to be five times stronger to hit 1.5°C, and three times stronger for 2°C.

One bright spot is the decline of coal power, which is set for a 3 per cent fall in 2019 – the biggest drop on record – according to analysts CarbonBrief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-coal-power-set-for-record-fall-in-2019). UNEP cites protests by schoolchildren (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2217269-global-climate-strikes-millions-take-to-the-streets-to-demand-action/) and the falling costs of green technologies (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2217235-the-cost-of-subsidising-uk-wind-farms-has-dropped-to-an-all-time-low/) as other reasons for hope, but concedes there is “no sign of greenhouse gas emissions peaking in the next few years”.

Each year of postponement leaves the world with an increasingly quixotic task. If emissions keep rising to 2025, Olhoff calculates we would then need annual emissions cuts of 15.7 per cent to meet 1.5°C. “By then it’s definitely too late,” she says.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2224539-un-report-reveals-how-hard-it-will-be-to-meet-climate-change-targets/#ixzz6VO0FZRG5 (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2224539-un-report-reveals-how-hard-it-will-be-to-meet-climate-change-targets/#ixzz6VO0FZRG5)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 17, 2020, 11:34:27 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on August 16, 2020, 02:03:26 PM

I read that some on-line entity (Google? Facebook? Snapchat? IDK) was ready to recognize differentiated pronouns for 51 genders.
That would put your measly 3 dozen genders in the shade.

Wow, more than four dozen. Over half a hundo. 

How much science exactly would a fella have to deny in order to reach such a conclusion? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 11:38:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:23:41 AM

We cannot measure mean global temperature within plus or minus 0.1°C, ergo, that difference is not measurable.  Maybe you did not know that.

That's kind of conflating different concepts into a mishmash.  It is true we wouldn't have confidence in small measurements of the atmosphere, because it's very difficult to measure.  The authors of your citation are very clear that there won't be much change in the short term.  But thankfully, (1) that doesn't mean they still can't measure it and (2) time hopefully doesn't stop in 2050.  The longer you go the higher diversion in global temperatures and we do become more confident in the measurements and the difference between them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 11:45:17 AM

https://www.courthousenews.com/drastic-action-on-emissions-needed-to-meet-paris-climate-targets/ (https://www.courthousenews.com/drastic-action-on-emissions-needed-to-meet-paris-climate-targets/)

Using seven different computerized simulations, the researchers found around 1,000 gigatons of carbon dioxide will be in the atmosphere even if all the nations that signed the Paris accord met all their stated contributions.
“This seems to be a lower end of what can be achieved with even the most stringent climate policies, because much of the residual emissions are already locked into the system due to existing infrastructures and dependencies on fossil fuels,” said Luderer.
“To aim for the ambitious 1.5 degree Celsius target for end-of-century warming would mean that an incredibly huge amount of at least 600 gigatons of CO2 removal was required.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 11:46:56 AM

What we will get is more meetings, more hand wringing, more apocalypse hollering, more spending, and very little meaningful action.

This is a political issue entirely now, not a technical one, as the technical issue is over.  Done.  Finis.

We're going to experience considerable warming IF the models are roughly correct.  It's baked in, and not changing, except minimally at the margins.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 11:49:19 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 17, 2020, 11:34:27 AM

Wow, more than four dozen. Over half a hundo.

How much science exactly would a fella have to deny in order to reach such a conclusion?

I don't know why gender is such a fight for so many people. 

I view someone's gender the same way I view someone's religion. I generally find it impolite to ask about it, but if offer the information, I accept their answer as their truth because it doesn't really affect me in any way. 

To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson:

Quote

The error seems not sufficiently eradicated, that the operations of the mind, as well as the acts of the body, are subjects to the coercion of the laws. But our rulers can have authority over such natural rights only as we have submitted to them. The rights of conscience we never submitted, we could not submit. We are answerable for them to our God. The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods genders, or no god only two genders. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 11:51:57 AM

The do nothing idea is an attractive position - it effectively takes the decision off the table, as the idea that "there's nothing to be done" shields us from criticism.  What did you want us to do - there were no options.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 11:53:29 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 17, 2020, 11:49:19 AM

I don't know why gender is such a fight for so many people.

I view someone's gender the same way I view someone's religion. I generally find it impolite to ask about it, but if offer the information, I accept their answer as their truth because it doesn't really affect me in any way.

+1

I get that there are some sticky situations on gender, like who can play what sports and whatnot.  But for the most part who gives a f***

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 12:01:06 PM

The problem is that the Paris accords outline a goal, but they do not outline a plan. 

I'm with Cincy on this...

• What concrete changes do we need to make to meet our Paris accord targets? This is a question about available technologies and deployment. Wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, etc?  
• How much will it cost to do so? 
• Is anyone in power (Congress, etc) actually enacting legislation in order to make those plans a reality?

Talking about how much "measurable" change to climate the Paris targets will effect is pointless unless we actually identify HOW we can achieve those targets and then actually do it. 

I don't trust that nearly any country is making the changes now to hit those targets. 


Signing a treaty isn't a plan. Defining a goal isn't a plan.

In this case I've described at least one part of a plan in this thread: a carbon tax. I want it revenue-neutral and offsetting some other tax we have. Preferably offsetting an existing regressive tax because a carbon tax will have certain level of regressivity to it. I threw out the idea of eliminating the payroll tax, but realized that we can't eliminate the entire payroll tax unless we price the carbon tax at exorbitant rates. So maybe if we reduce other tax rates rather than eliminate to make it fully offsetting, that will work better.

But at least if we increase the price of carbon, it makes every alternative technology by default more cost-competitive. In addition, it gives individual Americans more of an incentive to reduce their carbon footprint, whether that's in what type of vehicle they drive (and how often/far), to what they set their thermostat, and how they choose to use energy or adopt alternative technologies like home solar. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 12:18:39 PM

Do you have any predictions as to how much a carbon tax would reduce CO2 emissions over time?

It's a plausible general concept, one I looked into a while back, particularly if it is offset as you suggest with at least a partial FICA reduction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 17, 2020, 12:19:11 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 17, 2020, 11:49:19 AM

I don't know why gender is such a fight for so many people.

I view someone's gender the same way I view someone's religion. I generally find it impolite to ask about it, but if offer the information, I accept their answer as their truth because it doesn't really affect me in any way.

To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson:

It is an easy way to gauge how driven an individual actually is by "science" vs politics. 

Man made climate change + 2 (maybe 3 if you include hermaphrodites) = might be driven by facts and logic; or maybe even "science." 
Man made climate change + more than 3 genders = science denier; probable political puppet on the left.
No man made climate change + 2 genders = science denier; probable political puppet on the right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 12:23:58 PM

https://www.thebalance.com/carbon-tax-definition-how-it-works-4158043 (https://www.thebalance.com/carbon-tax-definition-how-it-works-4158043)

One group, the U.S. Interagency Working Group on Social Costs of Carbon, developed an estimate of $40 per metric ton.6 A tax reflecting this social cost would increase gas prices by 36 cents a gallon. It would add $0.02 to the price of a kilowatt-hour of electricity.7 

The price should be much higher to keep temperatures from rising above 1.5 C by 2030, according to a New York Times analysis of a 2018 United Nations report.8

The U.N. recommended a carbon tax of between $135 and $5,500 per ton
A recent report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development found that the average carbon price across 42 major economies was around $35 per ton in 2018. The price differential means governments find it politically difficult to charge enough to reduce emissions significantly.9

Pros

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2020, 12:27:50 PM

I could easily pay 36 cents more per gallon, wouldn't change anything for most.

Gas here is $1.99

that's much less than a couple years ago

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 12:35:22 PM

Yeah, most of us could, but the effect on demand would similarly be marginal.  

What we should do IMHO is get rid of coal to the extent possible, focus on that as an interim goal.  That is a shorter term lower cost high impact tactic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 12:43:03 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 11:53:29 AM

+1

I get that there are some sticky situations on gender, like who can play what sports and whatnot.  But for the most part who gives a f***

And I don't see why that's so sticky. "Parity" in sports is something that we strive for. We don't let one NCAA team have 150 scholarship players while restricting others to 85. In pro sports, we have salary caps which are designed to enforce parity--you can't simply "buy" the best players to your team. We have drafts for rookies instead of free agency because stars would not choose to go to crappy teams otherwise, and we want to give bad teams the opportunity to improve. 

No matter what your beliefs on gender, there are only two* biological sexes. You're either XX or XY. And no matter what your beliefs on gender, there are physiological differences between the sexes. 

We segregate certain sporting competitions based on biological sex for competitive reasons. Your average male NBA G-league player would be a superstar in the WNBA, not because he's more skilled than the females in the WNBA, but because of physiological differences.  

I don't see any possible way to allow people biologically male but who identify as female gender-wise to be allowed to compete in women's sports without completely ruining the competitive balance. And if you ruin competitive balance in a sport, why watch? If a WNBA team has a 7'0" biologically male center who can't get a cup of coffee in the NBA but suddenly identifies as female, you've destroyed competitive balance.

* Not sure what to do with those born XXY, but it's such a tiny percentage that we can treat that as an outlier problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 12:54:56 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 12:18:39 PM

Do you have any predictions as to how much a carbon tax would reduce CO2 emissions over time?

It's a plausible general concept, one I looked into a while back, particularly if it is offset as you suggest with at least a partial FICA reduction.

That much I don't know. What I do know is:

• It's easy.
• It's more than nothing.

I don't know if it's just political or whether it's due to high gas prices/taxes, but I see a heck of a lot of Teslas on the road here in CA. Also a lot of Prius, hybrids, etc. I'll bet you see a lot fewer in states with significantly lower gasoline excise taxes than CA has. 

One of the reasons smoking has become increasingly rare is that the cost of smoking (primarily taxes) has risen and risen. Obviously it's also been due to intense social stigma; it's not just taxes. But I'm sure that taxation is at least a factor.

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 12:35:22 PM

Yeah, most of us could, but the effect on demand would similarly be marginal. 

What we should do IMHO is get rid of coal to the extent possible, focus on that as an interim goal.  That is a shorter term lower cost high impact tactic.

A carbon tax would also increase the price of burning coal significantly compared to alternatives. While the tax is paid by the end user, that "end user" is not just individuals; it's also businesses. And those people vote. I'd bet you'd see a lot more politicians [state level, not necessarily federal] actually campaigning that they'd ban coal power plants to reduce energy bills if you had a carbon tax. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 01:02:16 PM

The issue with a carbon tax is that to have "meat" is has to be exorbitant, a la the UN recommendations.  And the economy can't shift fast enough if you apply it all at once.

So, you stage it, and folks adjust over time and it has less impact, for better and for worse.  I'm not against the concept at all, but as a "solution" or "plan" or something that would really reduce CO2 emissions  enough to matter, it isn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 01:23:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 01:02:16 PM

The issue with a carbon tax is that to have "meat" is has to be exorbitant, a la the UN recommendations.  And the economy can't shift fast enough if you apply it all at once.

So, you stage it, and folks adjust over time and it has less impact, for better and for worse.  I'm not against the concept at all, but as a "solution" or "plan" or something that would really reduce CO2 emissions  enough to matter, it isn't.

I don't think it's a "solution", but I think it could be part of the solution. 

The goal of offsetting a different regressive tax is one of the ways to avoid phasing it in, though. 

Of course the problem of offsetting something like the payroll tax is that for retired people, for example, they don't pay that tax so there is no offset. So some people will get the cost without the offsetting reduction in cost. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 01:25:47 PM

Incidentally, at one time recently, Atlanta had the second highest number of EVs of any city in the country.  Tax breaks.

The wealthy were all over that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 04:40:02 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 17, 2020, 12:43:03 PM

And I don't see why that's so sticky. "Parity" in sports is something that we strive for. We don't let one NCAA team have 150 scholarship players while restricting others to 85. In pro sports, we have salary caps which are designed to enforce parity--you can't simply "buy" the best players to your team. We have drafts for rookies instead of free agency because stars would not choose to go to crappy teams otherwise, and we want to give bad teams the opportunity to improve.

No matter what your beliefs on gender, there are only two* biological sexes. You're either XX or XY. And no matter what your beliefs on gender, there are physiological differences between the sexes.

We segregate certain sporting competitions based on biological sex for competitive reasons. Your average male NBA G-league player would be a superstar in the WNBA, not because he's more skilled than the females in the WNBA, but because of physiological differences. 

I don't see any possible way to allow people biologically male but who identify as female gender-wise to be allowed to compete in women's sports without completely ruining the competitive balance. And if you ruin competitive balance in a sport, why watch? If a WNBA team has a 7'0" biologically male center who can't get a cup of coffee in the NBA but suddenly identifies as female, you've destroyed competitive balance.

* Not sure what to do with those born XXY, but it's such a tiny percentage that we can treat that as an outlier problem.

I mean, but it can be sticky.  XXY is rare, but it isn't *that* rare, occurring in about 1 in a thousand or so.  It also isn't the only chromosome condition that impacts gender - XXXY, XXXXY. There are also a host of other issues - for example someone can have XX chromosomes yet have a penis and scrotum.  Notably, Caster Semenya, an Olympic sprinter, was labeled a female at birth due to distinct lack of male genitals but is in all sorts of hell because she has XY chromosomes.  Further, that's just the things we can measure somewhat easily - development and hormone issues are not well understood.  There was the case of Mack Beggs, female at birth, but who has lived as male for some time.  He wanted to wrestle men but was prevented due to state law, so he wrestled other girls.  Anyone with two eyes would see a boy wrestling a girl, and he went 89-0, but he probably has XX chromosomes.  

In any event, it gets very thorny to say there are only two biological sexes.  For most people, for most purposes, this is true, but our genetics and development are constantly changing and while the results may be outliers, they still exist as people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2020, 10:07:56 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 17, 2020, 11:34:27 AM

Wow, more than four dozen. Over half a hundo.

How much science exactly would a fella have to deny in order to reach such a conclusion?

Many people who accuse others of being science-deniers are deniers themselves.  They deny the science they don't like and solidly believe the science that they do like.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2020, 10:12:42 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 17, 2020, 11:49:19 AM

I don't know why gender is such a fight for so many people.

I view someone's gender the same way I view someone's religion. I generally find it impolite to ask about it, but if offer the information, I accept their answer as their truth because it doesn't really affect me in any way. . . .

For me, it's not a fight.
But I'd like to see "the Left" acknowledge that beliefs about "gender" based on nothing more than one's feelings about oneself are no more scientifically based than those of people who deny that there is anthropogenic climate change.

Quote

To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson:

It may break your daughter's heart when she finishes 4th in the 100 meters behind three boys identifying as girls.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 02:04:49 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 11:53:29 AM

+1

I get that there are some sticky situations on gender, like who can play what sports and whatnot.  But for the most part who gives a f***

By being dismissive about science that you find politically inconvenient, you are sort of proving my point. 

Someone could just as easily say "a half a degree Celsius over the course of my lifetime? Who gives a f***" 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 18, 2020, 02:07:51 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 02:04:49 PM

By being dismissive about science that you find politically inconvenient, you are sort of proving my point.

Someone could just as easily say "a half a degree Celsius over the course of my lifetime? Who gives a f***"

I'm not being dismissive of any science. I like biology so much I got my undergrad degree in it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 02:24:19 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 18, 2020, 02:07:51 PM

I'm not being dismissive of any science. I like biology so much I got my undergrad degree in it.

How many genders are there? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 18, 2020, 06:41:34 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 02:24:19 PM

How many genders are there?

Depends on how you want to categorize them.  By chromosome?  Plenty.  XX and XY are the standard, but X, XXX, XXXX, XXY, XXXY, XYY, and well you can see how that goes.  By how your genitals look?  You are going to get more variety there.  By how you dress and act?  Even more variety still.  Science is good at looking at what something is, it's not really a wonderful tool for putting things and people into categories.

And frankly, I don't want to be insulting.  Boys and girls works for most people. My only point is that some people don't fit neatly into these categories.  This isn't liberal hooey, it's a scientific fact.  The genetics and development of people isn't some simple path - there's a lot that goes into it and a lot that can go in a different direction.  If someone has a congenital heart defect we don't pretend like their heart doesn't exist or it's something they should just power through.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 07:07:42 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 18, 2020, 06:41:34 PM

Depends on how you want to categorize them.  By chromosome?  Plenty.  XX and XY are the standard, but X, XXX, XXXX, XXY, XXXY, XYY, and well you can see how that goes.  By how your genitals look?  You are going to get more variety there.  By how you dress and act?  Even more variety still.  Science is good at looking at what something is, it's not really a wonderful tool for putting things and people into categories.

And frankly, I don't want to be insulting.  Boys and girls works for most people. My only point is that some people don't fit neatly into these categories.  This isn't liberal hooey, it's a scientific fact.  The genetics and development of people isn't some simple path - there's a lot that goes into it and a lot that can go in a different direction.  If someone has a congenital heart defect we don't pretend like their heart doesn't exist or it's something they should just power through.

Person X is born XY, with the corresponding anatomy, but "identifies" as female. 

What gender do "YOU" consider Person X to be?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 18, 2020, 07:31:24 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 07:07:42 PM

Person X is born XY, with the corresponding anatomy, but "identifies" as female.

What gender do "YOU" consider Person X to be?

If she says she'd like to be treated as a female I'd treat her as a female

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 18, 2020, 09:58:29 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 07:07:42 PM

Person X is born XY, with the corresponding anatomy, but "identifies" as female.

What gender do "YOU" consider Person X to be?

Whatever he or she says. I have no skin in the game. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 10:55:54 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 18, 2020, 07:31:24 PM

If she says she'd like to be treated as a female I'd treat her as a female

So you would deny science in favor of politics. 

Got it, thanks. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 10:58:07 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 18, 2020, 09:58:29 PM

Whatever he or she says. I have no skin in the game.

Another vote for politics over biology. 

Thanks for the honest input, fellas. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 06:54:58 AM

It's not about denying "science", it's merely a personal opinion as to how one would treat another.

If a person says they identify as a potato, I'd treat them accordingly.  Actually, I would avoid them, so I'd treat them not at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 06:58:44 AM

Here would be the outline sketch of a "PLAN", in part.

Goal:  To replace nearly every coal fired generating plant in the US by 2035.
Problem:  Many of these plants have sunk capital not yet amortized, e.g., it cost money to shut them down, and more money to replace them.
Approach:  Add a "carbon tax" or whatever to coal to raise revenue devoted to this aim.  It wouldn't be all that high I suspect.
The newer coal fired plants would get "paid off" with said tax, the older one would get replaced normally.

Replacement would be with nuclear, NG, wind, solar, whatever, at the choice of the utility and how they can manage intermittent power (or not).

Benefit:  No more coal burning gases in our air locally, reduction in CO2 emissions, impact in global warming would be 0.001°C by 2050, more or less.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 19, 2020, 07:10:28 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 10:55:54 PM

So you would deny science in favor of politics.

Got it, thanks.

Not sure what science I'm denying.  The logic here seems to be sexual reproduction is required to have a baby, and that requires a man and a woman, and therefore gay people don't exist.  Boom science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 19, 2020, 07:18:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 06:54:58 AM

It's not about denying "science", it's merely a personal opinion as to how one would treat another.

If a person says they identify as a potato, I'd treat them accordingly.  Actually, I would avoid them, so I'd treat them not at all.

Well then they'd have to use a Lavatory's that were labeled as "?" or sumsuch.I would think many fathers would have a huge problem these indidviduals to use the same facility as their grade school daughters.Just based on the % of creeps who would infiltrate something they would view as an opportunity - IMO

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 07:37:39 AM

I learned that sex in a lavatory, while novel and interesting, it also often uncomfortable.  It's like a back seat with too many hard things scattered around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 03:25:58 PM

https://phys.org/news/2020-08-global-trends-inconsistent-high-climate.html?fbclid=IwAR1ouHqToENueKN6lsOo7c0Gw1U_NtYJaJt9KBLs2IsnNuRclnNVvnX1pU8 (https://phys.org/news/2020-08-global-trends-inconsistent-high-climate.html?fbclid=IwAR1ouHqToENueKN6lsOo7c0Gw1U_NtYJaJt9KBLs2IsnNuRclnNVvnX1pU8)

A subset of models even showed that a doubling of CO₂ could lead to over 5°C of warming (https://phys.org/tags/warming/), questioning whether the goals of the Paris agreement are achievable even if nations do everything they can.

The lead author of the study, Ph.D. candidate Femke Nijsse from the University of Exeter, said: "In evaluating the climate models we were able to exploit the fact that thanks to clean air regulation, air pollution in the form of climate-cooling aerosols have stopped increasing worldwide, allowing the greenhouse gas signal to dominate recent warming."

The amount of warming that occurs after CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere are doubled is called the equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2020, 03:41:54 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 10:58:07 PM

Another vote for politics over biology.

Thanks for the honest input, fellas.

Eh. I'm not denying biology. I just don't see a lot of benefit in arguing with people over what gender they identify as.

Especially since a lot of them have enough problems in their life, due to not actually "feeling" like they're in the right body. 

 

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 19, 2020, 07:18:00 AM

Well then they'd have to use a Lavatory's that were labeled as "?" or sumsuch.I would think many fathers would have a huge problem these indidviduals to use the same facility as their grade school daughters.Just based on the % of creeps who would infiltrate something they would view as an opportunity - IMO

I suspect this is a much more overblown fear than reality. 

I'm guessing if someone with complete and total cis-gender mannerisms [someone who looks and acts like, well, me] tried to go into a women's lav because they "feel like a lady today", that person would probably get their ass kicked and be called a perv. And rightly so. 

If someone with XY chromosomes and a penis goes through all the trouble to wear long hair, makeup, women's clothes, and generally act in their life like a woman, enjoy the ladies' restroom. You've earned it, ma'am. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2020, 09:06:14 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 19, 2020, 03:41:54 PM

Eh. I'm not denying biology. I just don't see a lot of benefit in arguing with people over what gender they identify as.

Especially since a lot of them have enough problems in their life, due to not actually "feeling" like they're in the right body.

Completely this.  Man, people already have a hard enough time with feeling miserable. No reason to attempt to make it worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2020, 10:56:41 PM

what does a person's gender have to do with Weather, Climate, and Environment?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2020, 11:59:52 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 19, 2020, 10:56:41 PM

what does a person's gender have to do with Weather, Climate, and Environment?

He started it.

(I don't remember which one... But it wasn't me.) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 20, 2020, 08:10:16 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 19, 2020, 10:56:41 PM

what does a person's gender have to do with Weather, Climate, and Environment?

The heat generated by the discussion contributes to global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 09:59:28 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 19, 2020, 03:41:54 PM

Eh. I'm not denying biology. I just don't see a lot of benefit in arguing with people over what gender they identify as.

Especially since a lot of them have enough problems in their life, due to not actually "feeling" like they're in the right body.

.

So "good manners" is the reason that science takes a back seat to politics on this matter for you. That's fine, and doesn't refute my point.

Most folk who "deny science" do so for what they consider to be "good reasons." No group one  a monopoly on the behavior.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 10:01:33 AM

I think "good manners" and being considerate is a useful tactic in situations where it really doesn't matter, and any umbrage or whatever you express about a situation to said person is not likely to be productive.

The competition story is different.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 10:02:32 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 19, 2020, 07:10:28 AM

Not sure what science I'm denying.  The logic here seems to be sexual reproduction is required to have a baby, and that requires a man and a woman, and therefore gay people don't exist.  Boom science.

Dorothy called. She wants her Brainless Straw Man back. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 10:07:28 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 19, 2020, 10:56:41 PM

what does a person's gender have to do with Weather, Climate, and Environment?

It was offered up as an example of the left playing the role of "science deniers."

There are many others, but that is one that they won't even try to wiggle out of. 

"Person with male anatomy says he's a woman. sounds legit." 

Of course if they actually believed this, then they "should" be just as open to dating one of these people as they would be to dating an actual woman....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 20, 2020, 10:12:59 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 10:02:32 AM

Dorothy called. She wants her Brainless Straw Man back.

Well you keep saying people are denying science without offering much science

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 10:18:56 AM

I don't even have to. 

You guys don't even try to deny that you believe gender to be a state of mind. 

Your only defense is to try to muddy the waters, and pretend that that's somehow not the same thing as denying science. 

Some of you even attack some straw man argument that you invented out of thin air about gays not existing because they don't have babies, or some such. I cannot even remember exactly how it went, because it was so breathtakingly dishonest and stupid. 
 
All that any of that does is prove my point. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 20, 2020, 11:18:50 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 10:18:56 AM

I don't even have to.

You guys don't even try to deny that you believe gender to be a state of mind.

Your only defense is to try to muddy the waters, and pretend that that's somehow not the same thing as denying science.

Some of you even attack some straw man argument that you invented out of thin air about gays not existing because they don't have babies, or some such. I cannot even remember exactly how it went, because it was so breathtakingly dishonest and stupid.
 
All that any of that does is prove my point.

So, you have no facts, and no science, because being trans is a "state of mind" so you don't need any. But being gay is clearly not a "state of mind" and it's stupid to compare the two?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 11:23:01 AM

I don't have any obligation to explain what you meant by your straw man.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 11:36:14 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 09:59:28 AM

So "good manners" is the reason that science takes a back seat to politics on this matter for you. That's fine, and doesn't refute my point.

Most folk who "deny science" do so for what they consider to be "good reasons." No group one  a monopoly on the behavior.

You're missing my point. My point, primarily, is that I'm a libertarian and I don't give a shit. Whether there are two genders or fifty-two doesn't change that I'm comfortable with who *I* am and other peoples' gender identity is their business, not mine. 

I'm not going to argue with them and say they're wrong, because in line with the Jefferson quote I referenced earlier, their gender identity neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg. 

So whether there is a true scientific basis for gender dysphoria--and to be fair, I suspect that the more we learn about this the more we'll learn that there is a biological component to gender identity--doesn't really matter. It's not my business. 

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 10:07:28 AM

It was offered up as an example of the left playing the role of "science deniers."

There are many others, but that is one that they won't even try to wiggle out of.

"Person with male anatomy says he's a woman. sounds legit."

Of course if they actually believed this, then they "should" be just as open to dating one of these people as they would be to dating an actual woman....

Speaking of strawmen...

We all have filters used in dating. Some are completely rational. Some are irrational. Some are neither and they're just personal preference. 

For example, right now I'm discriminating against 100% of available dating partners because 100% of them are not my wife. 

But when I was on the market, I had three things that I saw in profiles on a dating app that were an immediate swipe-left.

• Any mention of their god or religion.
• Saying that they don't drink.
• Saying they were a vegetarian/vegan.

It's not that I hate religious people, or teetotalers, or people who don't eat meat. I don't argue with people about religion, or that omnivorous eating habits are "natural" and vegetarian/vegan are abnormal. 

I don't discriminate against any of those categories in the rest of my life. I wouldn't refuse to hire a religious person. I don't bar vegetarians from coming into my house; in fact if you're coming over to dinner and you're a vegetarian, I'll adjust my menu to accommodate. That doesn't mean I'm a hypocrite if I don't choose to date a religious teetotaler who doesn't eat meat. 

I just figured that anyone who was fervent enough about any of those things to put them in their profile probably wouldn't be compatible with an atheist carnivore who brews his own beer. So why waste anyone's time? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 11:53:09 AM

"I am not a flat Earther, but I am willing to play along with the ruse because I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings." 

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 20, 2020, 11:36:14 AM

You're missing my point. My point, primarily, is that I'm a libertarian and I don't give a shit. Whether there are two genders or fifty-two doesn't change that I'm comfortable with who *I* am and other peoples' gender identity is their business, not mine.  

Yeah, that's precisely what I said. Politics over science.

I don't know what point you think that I am trying to make, but you appear to be in full agreement with the point that I am actually trying to make, since you are making arguments that support my point. 

And yes, if you actually "believed" that they were women, then you would be willing to date one, so long as they checked off all of your boxes; non-religious drunkard that has a taste for smoked meats.

But you don't actually believe that, you are just willing to go along with the ruse because that is what a libertarian is "supposed" to do in your estimation. Politics over science. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 11:54:43 AM

We've had storms here of late, some pretty impressive, no damage I have seen.  Cloudy today, some rain forecast, and moderating Ts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 20, 2020, 11:57:02 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 11:23:01 AM

I don't have any obligation to explain what you meant by your straw man.

Then let me explain it. Your argument, as far as I can tell, are that trans people are making it all up, because science says there are men and women and that's it. That's very similar to idea that gay people are making it all up, because science says there are men and women being attracted to each other and that's it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2020, 12:08:42 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 11:54:43 AM

We've had storms here of late, some pretty impressive, no damage I have seen.  Cloudy today, some rain forecast, and moderating Ts.

Been really nice at the harbor this week. A little breezy, but that's OK I guess.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 12:13:34 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 11:53:09 AM

I don't know what point you think that I am trying to make, but you appear to be in full agreement with the point that I am actually trying to make, since you are making arguments that support my point.

I don't know what your point is. 

It appears to be "there are only two genders, male and female, and you are what your parts are no matter what every fiber of your being tells you."

Is that roughly accurate? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 20, 2020, 12:27:24 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2020, 12:08:42 PM

Been really nice at the harbor this week. A little breezy, but that's OK I guess.

The fam wants to get a boat. I'm not anti- boat but feel it won't be used enough too be worth the cost and effort. But it's a beautiful day today - makes me wish I had one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2020, 12:29:03 PM

We've had a boat since 1999. It's good therapy to be on water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 12:29:23 PM

Not at all. My "point" is that no singular political slant has a monopoly on science denying. I simply provided an example where the left does it, and we have learned that libertarians also do it. So the art of science denial is alive and well in every political slant, not just one. But I do thank yinz for proving my point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 12:35:46 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 12:29:23 PM

Not at all. My "point" is that no singular political slant has a monopoly on science denying. I simply provided an example where the left does it, and we have learned that libertarians also do it. So the art of science denial is alive and well in every political slant, not just one. But I do thank yinz for proving my point.

What science am I denying?

(BTW I agree that "anti-science" isn't restricted to one political party. I just don't think this example proves it.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2020, 12:39:14 PM

all political "parties" or groups are the same

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 12:40:57 PM

Are not.  One side is very very very very BAD and the other side is very very very VERY good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2020, 12:42:27 PM

both sides try to use petitions and numbers of signatures to no avail 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 01:09:01 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 20, 2020, 12:35:46 PM

What science am I denying?

(BTW I agree that "anti-science" isn't restricted to one political party. I just don't think this example proves it.)

I know that you agree with my point since the gist of all of your rebuttals has been "of course I view this issue through a political lense instead of a scientific lense. The primary reason that I do this is because of my political affiliation."

THAT, and that alone, is my point. Thank you for providing a visual aid.

I have no interest in altering your views on that issue, and you don't need to justify them. I already know WHY you do it. I was merely using it as an example in order to make a larger point; one that by your own admission, you agree with.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 01:22:26 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 01:09:01 PM

I know that you agree with my point since the gist of all of your rebuttals has been "of course I view this issue through a political lense instead of a scientific lense. The primary reason that I do this is because of my political affiliation."

THAT, and that alone, is my point. Thank you for providing a visual aid.

I have no interest in altering your views on that issue, and you don't need to justify them. I already know WHY you do it. I was merely using it as an example in order to make a larger point; one that by your own admission, you agree with.

And again, you're missing my point. I'm not viewing "this issue" through a political lens and trying to decide what I feel about the science based on my politics. Where politics intersects for me is that because my political leaning is "leave people alone" it makes the science irrelevant to me. If my view is that I do my thing, and other people do theirs, it doesn't matter to me whether "theirs" is science-based or not. 

That said, I think if you believe that gender is entirely some binary dichotomy, I'd venture to say that you're the one denying the science. One things humans are really good at is breaking things down into simple and easily-discernable categories.

Often reality isn't quite as clear. Sometimes it's not as simple as "peepee or vajayjay."

For example, a study in Australia of transgender people revealed significant genetic differences that relate to many of the hormones that we commonly associate with gender (https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2018-10-04/study-reveals-potential-biological-basis-for-gender-dysphoria/10334512). Essentially, they studied a bunch of transgender (male who identified as female) and found that despite their external male parts, they had genetic differences specific in genes known to deal with sex hormones from those who were born with male parts and identified as male. 

What do you do if someone has XY chromosome and male parts but the development of their brain (due to other genes) and their hormonal responses are more typically female? I'd venture to say that maybe someone who developed like that isn't so easy to categorize as 100% M or F. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 01:33:42 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 20, 2020, 01:22:26 PM

And again, you're missing my point. I'm not viewing "this issue" through a political lens and trying to decide what I feel about the science based on my politics. Where politics intersects for me is that because my political leaning is "leave people alone" it makes the science irrelevant to me. If my view is that I do my thing, and other people do theirs, it doesn't matter to me whether "theirs" is science-based or not.

That said, I think if you believe that gender is entirely some binary dichotomy, I'd venture to say that you're the one denying the science. One things humans are really good at is breaking things down into simple and easily-discernable categories.

Often reality isn't quite as clear. Sometimes it's not as simple as "peepee or vajayjay."

For example, a study in Australia of transgender people revealed significant genetic differences that relate to many of the hormones that we commonly associate with gender (https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2018-10-04/study-reveals-potential-biological-basis-for-gender-dysphoria/10334512). Essentially, they studied a bunch of transgender (male who identified as female) and found that despite their external male parts, they had genetic differences specific in genes known to deal with sex hormones from those who were born with male parts and identified as male.

What do you do if someone has XY chromosome and male parts but the development of their brain (due to other genes) and their hormonal responses are more typically female? I'd venture to say that maybe someone who developed like that isn't so easy to categorize as 100% M or F.

If someone felt with every fiber of their being that they were a different race, or age, or height, or species, or object, then most people would not be willing to go along with the dude. You might because"live and let live" and **insert libertarian attribute** but most people would find it ridiculous.

If someone"identifies" as a different gender, then all of a sudden a lot more people will be willing to play along. The reason for this is rooted almost entirely in politics instead of science.

Not sure what is so hard to follow here. I think that your brain is snapping into "OMG, it is time to debate transgender issues" mode.

I don't care where you stand on that, and have no desire to alter your stance. It was just an example, and I thank you for illustrating it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 01:45:41 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2020, 12:29:03 PM

We've had a boat since 1999. It's good therapy to be on water.

Yup.  1996 for me.

But my current boat has now developed a serious leak through a rotting transom.  Probably something like $5K-$6K to repair and the boat's only worth a bit more than that. I'd rather spend that money toward the purchase of a new(er) boat, probably a wakeboard boat.  The kids are ready to learn some jumps, which we can't do on my current runabout with no tower.

Not sure how to dispose of the old boat though.  The motor,outdrive, and trailer are still worth something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 02:07:51 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 01:33:42 PM

If someone felt with every fiber of their being that they were a different race, or age, or height, or species, or object, then most people would not be willing to go along with the dude. You might because"live and let live" and **insert libertarian attribute** but most people would find it ridiculous.

No, but people of certain races, ages, and height often feel significant societal pressure to behave in certain ways. 

Race is more cultural/historical than anything, but one of my good friends in high school was mixed race. At one point he told me that it was often hard for him because around his black friends, he was expected to "act black", and around his white friends, he was expected to "act white". It was like society kept trying to pigeonhole him into something and he was just trying to be himself. And "himself" was a mix of two different cultures and ways of acting. I learned something at that point--even though I would never have tried to make him "act white", when he was around me he felt he had to try to conform, and when he was around black friends he felt he had to try to conform, and neither was 100% natural for him. 

I'm sure growing up you had evidence in Ohio of white kids who tried to "act black" -- I recall a specific term that we could just call "the wh- word" and you'd know the sort of opprobrium they endured. In predominantly black communities there are kids who resist the stereotypical "black" mold and they're often faced with ridicule from their own community for trying to "act white" or be "uppity". We live in a world where a certain type of dress, a certain type of speech, a certain type of behavior is expected in the business world to get ahead, and it's screwy that that behavior is seen in certain areas as "acting white". In fact, that was part of the issue with Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa program--it sounded from the reports like there was a certain mold that he was trying to push people into and they were angry about it. 

A lot of people have difficulty in life because the world wants to categorize them one way and that's not how they feel. 

I'm pretty certain that I'm on the high-functioning end of the autistic spectrum. I've spent 42 years not ever feeling like I truly "belonged" with "normal" people. Do you know what that's like? It sucks. You bring up species. The most well-known website / forum for people on the spectrum is called "Wrong Planet", and it was so named because high-functioning autistic people don't feel like there's anything "wrong" with us--if we were on our original planet with our own kind we'd be fine, but we somehow were born on the wrong planet with a bunch of humanity that is functionally different from ourselves. In truth, it's probably that something in my genetics and hormones / gene expression / etc that occurred in my mom's womb that tweaked my brain to make it just ever so slightly "wrong". But I'm not wrong--I think I'm fine and just want to get along and not be looked at like a weirdo because I'm a little off. 

Quote

If someone"identifies" as a different gender, then all of a sudden a lot more people will be willing to play along. The reason for this is rooted almost entirely in politics instead of science. 

Not sure what is so hard to follow here. I think that your brain is snapping into "OMG, it is time to debate transgender issues" mode. 

I don't care where you stand on that, and have no desire to alter your stance. It was just an example, and I thank you for illustrating it.

Yeah, that's pretty much it. You know what they call that? "Empathy". It's the ability to realize that someone's situation may be completely different from your own, and try to understand and accommodate that because you're a good person. 

Accepting that for someone who is transgender, that's legitimately their truth in life, doesn't hurt me in any way. But being a dick to them hurts them. 

Why would I want to do that?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 02:09:56 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2020, 12:29:03 PM

We've had a boat since 1999. It's good therapy to be on water.

Agreed. Half the reason my wife and I love our little wine bar so much is because it's so calming to be sitting there overlooking Lake Mission Viejo, even if we're not out on the water ourselves. 

I like boats, but I don't see myself ever being a boat owner. Too much money, time, work, etc unless you REALLY commit to it as a lifestyle. I like it, but not enough to justify ownership. I'm happy with the occasional rental. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 02:35:04 PM

Two happiest days of a man's life.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 02:37:26 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 20, 2020, 02:07:51 PM

I've spent 42 years not ever feeling like I truly "belonged" with "normal" people. Do you know what that's like? It sucks.

Yessir. Yes I do. Shocking, I know. 

Anyway, I think that I have made my point. Be it "empathy" or whatever you want to call it, it is all politics and no science (paraphrasing your "all hat and no cattle" joke.)

If you still aren't getting it, then I must have communication skills that are even worse than those belonging to an individual who types Ebonics in all caps. Either way, I'm gonna bow out and let y'all talk about the weather. 

It's hot here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 03:06:58 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 02:37:26 PM

I'm gonna bow out and let y'all talk about the weather.

It's hot here.

Daily highs have been in the 90s for basically the entire last week, with overnight temps too high to open the windows, so had to run the A/C. 

Electric bill is going to suck this month. 

Good news though is that originally we were predicted to have this continue all the way through next week, but it seems to be moderating and most days will have highs in the 80s instead of 90s starting Saturday and continuing into next week. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2020, 03:34:16 PM

heating back up here

this heat started in early June, only a few days break since then

need rain, not storms that are named things I've never heard of before

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 08:12:26 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 20, 2020, 02:07:51 PM

No, but people of certain races, ages, and height often feel significant societal pressure to behave in certain ways.

Race is more cultural/historical than anything, but one of my good friends in high school was mixed race. At one point he told me that it was often hard for him because around his black friends, he was expected to "act black", and around his white friends, he was expected to "act white". It was like society kept trying to pigeonhole him into something and he was just trying to be himself. And "himself" was a mix of two different cultures and ways of acting. I learned something at that point--even though I would never have tried to make him "act white", when he was around me he felt he had to try to conform, and when he was around black friends he felt he had to try to conform, and neither was 100% natural for him.

I'm sure growing up you had evidence in Ohio of white kids who tried to "act black" -- I recall a specific term that we could just call "the wh- word" and you'd know the sort of opprobrium they endured. In predominantly black communities there are kids who resist the stereotypical "black" mold and they're often faced with ridicule from their own community for trying to "act white" or be "uppity". We live in a world where a certain type of dress, a certain type of speech, a certain type of behavior is expected in the business world to get ahead, and it's screwy that that behavior is seen in certain areas as "acting white". In fact, that was part of the issue with Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa program--it sounded from the reports like there was a certain mold that he was trying to push people into and they were angry about it.

A lot of people have difficulty in life because the world wants to categorize them one way and that's not how they feel.

I'm pretty certain that I'm on the high-functioning end of the autistic spectrum. I've spent 42 years not ever feeling like I truly "belonged" with "normal" people. Do you know what that's like? It sucks. You bring up species. The most well-known website / forum for people on the spectrum is called "Wrong Planet", and it was so named because high-functioning autistic people don't feel like there's anything "wrong" with us--if we were on our original planet with our own kind we'd be fine, but we somehow were born on the wrong planet with a bunch of humanity that is functionally different from ourselves. In truth, it's probably that something in my genetics and hormones / gene expression / etc that occurred in my mom's womb that tweaked my brain to make it just ever so slightly "wrong". But I'm not wrong--I think I'm fine and just want to get along and not be looked at like a weirdo because I'm a little off.



Yeah, that's pretty much it. You know what they call that? "Empathy". It's the ability to realize that someone's situation may be completely different from your own, and try to understand and accommodate that because you're a good person.

Accepting that for someone who is transgender, that's legitimately their truth in life, doesn't hurt me in any way. But being a dick to them hurts them.

Why would I want to do that?

My wife teaches at a school for kids "on the spectrum."  She's a reading specialist.  Sometimes, it's very challenging for her, other times it's incredibly rewarding and fulfilling.  I go to the graduation ceremonies.  They are very heartwarming, sometimes to the tear-jerking extreme.  Kids who were ridiculed and bullied, or just couldn't quite get what it was their teachers were wanting them to do, thrive in this school.  Teaching them to read better opens up whole new worlds for them.  I feel like the teachers there are truly doing God's work (no offense to non-believers intended).


As a society, we're not overflowing with empathy these days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 20, 2020, 08:52:09 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 01:45:41 PM

Yup.  1996 for me.

Unfortunately some years you didn't have a lake :dink:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 09:32:24 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 20, 2020, 08:52:09 PM

Unfortunately some years you didn't have a lake :dink:

Ha!

There are always lakes.  It's why I keep my boat trailered rather than in a slip on a (occasionally non-existent) lake.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 21, 2020, 07:15:04 AM

I live next to a lake, and the boat dock is maybe a three minute walk from my house.  However, it is a reservoir for the city's water supply, so they have lots of restrictions on speed, so it's not like a big watersports lake.  And I hate fishing.  So I guess I'd just float up and down the lake slowly?  Is that fun?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 21, 2020, 07:28:40 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 20, 2020, 02:07:51 PM

 I've spent 42 years not ever feeling like I truly "belonged" with "normal" people. Do you know what that's like? 

You saying we're not normal,here?Well you just go sit in the corner with OAM until called upon.I'll get back to you when I'm done with my Yuengling and Quacker Oats

PS we're all a little whack.Look at the time spent on a Football Forum,that's not had or likely gonna have football.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 21, 2020, 07:34:36 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 20, 2020, 02:37:26 PM

Yessir. Yes I do. Shocking, I know.

Anyway, I think that I have made my point. Be it "empathy" or whatever you want to call it, it is all politics and no science (paraphrasing your "all hat and no cattle" joke.)

If you still aren't getting it, then I must have communication skills that are even worse than those belonging to an individual who types Ebonics in all caps. Either way, I'm gonna bow out and let y'all talk about the weather.

It's hot here.

I would just add that telling people they must act a certain way based on some factor out of their control is absolutely politics, not science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 07:58:40 AM

What would be the tangible difference in CO2 output over the next 8 years if either party wins the White House?

Significant?  Marginal?  Negligible?  Massive?  

Guesstimates?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 08:45:45 AM

Negligible at best

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 08:46:31 AM

the Egg Lobby doing good................

When Rose Acre Farms, the nation’s second-largest egg producer, wanted to add sustainability and innovation to its North Carolina operations, it turned to its local electric cooperative and an idea was hatched: a microgrid with utility-scale solar energy.

The system—a 2-megawatt solar array, a 2.5-MW battery, backup diesel generation and a controller—is being facilitated by Pantego-based Tideland EMC and will serve the egg producer’s Hyde County facility.

“We are excited to work with North Carolina’s Electric Cooperatives and Tideland EMC in creating a sustainable and efficient energy source for our Hyde County Egg Farm,” said Tony Wesner, chief operating officer at Rose Acre Farms. “Not only will this partnership help us reach our own sustainability and environmental goals, but it will also strengthen our local community by offering a more reliable and environmentally responsible power source.”

The co-op said the solution will give the egg producer the flexibility to meet its environmental goals while keeping power costs reasonable. The solar array is expected to offset up to a third of the farm’s total energy use.

NRECA worked with NCEMC and Tideland to deliver this microgrid. It is one of four ongoing battery projects involving five co-ops, NRECA and the Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity that will yield valuable findings on energy storage. The others include Poudre Valley Rural Electric Association in Colorado, West River Electric Association in South Dakota, and Sandhills Utility Services in North Carolina.


https://www.electric.coop/nc-co-ops-help-egg-farm-add-microgrid/?MessageRunDetailID=3199168678&PostID=18549517&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io (https://www.electric.coop/nc-co-ops-help-egg-farm-add-microgrid/?MessageRunDetailID=3199168678&PostID=18549517&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 08:52:18 AM

I do wonder if smaller operations like that can benefit from a solar system, off grid perhaps.

Does it pay out?  Or is it for PR?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 09:48:16 AM

Nearly half of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions are from petroleum use
In 2019, about 46% of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions came from burning petroleum fuels, 33% came from burning natural gas, and 21% came from burning coal. Although the industrial sector (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Industrial sector) is the largest consumer of energy (including direct fuel use and electricity purchases from the electric power sector (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Electric power sector)), the transportation sector (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Transportation sector) emits more CO2 because of its near complete dependence on petroleum fuels.

U.S. energy consumption b ysource, 2019 total = 100.2 quadrillion British thermal units U.S. energy-related carbon dioxideemissions by source, 2019 total = 5,130 million metric tonspetroleum37%petroleum37%nonfossil20%nonfossil20%coal11%coal11%natural gas32%natural gas32%natural gas33%natural gas33%petroleum46%petroleum46%coal21%coal21%

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 10:01:24 AM

So, petroleum = transportation.  Electrification at least shifts that to other sources.  It seems this is where the meat is today in the US.

That 21% from coal is large enough to merit effort to reduce/eliminate, and I think we could do that in 10-15 years plausibly.  Nuclear would be the most parallel generating option to coal in terms of base load, but other than the two new power reactors in GA, that looks like a done deal, and closures of older nuke plants is likely going to make this a negative.  That leaves NG, which reduces GHG by a third versus coal, and wind/solar, which unfortunately are intermittent sources, not ideal for base load without storage.

So, let's imagine with some effort/expense, the US drives coal to 1% by 2035, and at least personal vehicles by then are half EVs.  Can wind and solar along make up for the loss of coal?  Not really, the math doesn't work, and converting automobiles to half EVs puts additional demand on the grid, mostly at night where solar is zero.

See why there is no plan?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 11:31:47 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on August 21, 2020, 07:34:36 AM

I would just add that telling people they must act a certain way based on some factor out of their control is absolutely politics, not science.

It does not surprise me that you would add another straw man. Not much else in your arsenal. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 21, 2020, 11:39:53 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 11:31:47 AM

It does not surprise me that you would add another straw man. Not much else in your arsenal.

Well tree facts and science are on my side, so not sure what else I need. But the general argument that trans people don't really exist is rooted in politics.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 11:43:30 AM

I didn't make a claim that trans people don't exist. Nor did i claim that gay people don't exist. Nor did I say anything that could even remotely be construed as such. At all. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 21, 2020, 11:47:34 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 11:43:30 AM

I didn't make a claim that trans people don't exist. Nor did i claim that gay people don't exist. Nor did I say anything that could even remotely be construed as such. At all.

Nor can anyone figure out what you are arguing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2020, 11:57:20 AM

C'mon boys. Take it to the stream already.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 11:59:15 AM

I was arguing that those who consider men to be women are engaging in the act of science denial for political purposes. 

Never once did I argue anything even remotely similar to a claim the lgbt community doesn't actually exist. 

I think you knew that. But carry on with your brainless straw men. I'm out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 12:02:40 PM

What plausibly could be our energy mix by 2030, 2035, 2040, and beyond?  Any thoughts?  

If we indeed shift cars to EVs significantly, that adds to the demand on the grid, at night.  That reduces, or shifts the petrol CO2 generation to something else, so we not only would need to replace coal but also come up with roughly 150% of current nuclear capacity, or roughly 350% of current wind capacity, at best.  And that is to break even.

Replacing coal, a nice base load power source, AND generating new capacity for EVs ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2020, 12:06:04 PM

Sounds like someone needs to give a speech. Or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 12:09:16 PM

Ill happily sign a petition

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 12:15:20 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2020, 12:06:04 PM

Sounds like someone needs to give a speech. Or something.

Hold an international conference in Tahiti to discuss the issue and sign some agreements and give speeches as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 12:16:39 PM

let's wait until February, I'll attend.

all expenses paid of course, including golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 12:18:04 PM

I used to drink tea with my buddy at work daily.  We'd have lunch in his office and drink hot tea and discuss the world.  We got into it fairly deeply, and on occasion this other guy would drop by who was very environmentally concerned, they both were.

I delved into the issue as best I could and generated some charts somewhat like what I've shown here, this was circa 2010.

The younger fellow's response was "We have to TRY".  OK, let's TRY.  My buddy's response was to say "That's why they call you Dr. Doom around here."  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 21, 2020, 12:26:50 PM

I think we finally got our first big monsoon storm here in Phoenix.  There was a terrible windstorm (or sandstorm) Monday night, but this time we had that and a deluge of rain.  

I honestly can't remember the last time it rained here.  It had been months.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2020, 12:47:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 12:15:20 PM

Hold an international conference in Tahiti to discuss the issue and sign some agreements and give speeches as well.

So long as nobody flies to Tahiti, I'm good with that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 01:04:10 PM

get PJ Fleck and his team to row the boats!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2020, 01:07:30 PM

Screw that. He gives off enough wind to fill up many sails.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 05:58:38 PM

https://www.livescience.com/greenland-melt-point-of-no-return.html?utm_source=notification&fbclid=IwAR0XdQQmVQB7AWGvC52vz4bUwqjPYaFyqDwFucfKMgGezUJS1An1PMkvz0E (https://www.livescience.com/greenland-melt-point-of-no-return.html?utm_source=notification&fbclid=IwAR0XdQQmVQB7AWGvC52vz4bUwqjPYaFyqDwFucfKMgGezUJS1An1PMkvz0E)

The Greenland (https://www.livescience.com/61602-greenland-facts.html) Ice Sheet has reached a point of rapid retreat that it couldn't recover from even if global temperatures stopped rising instantly. 

This Arctic ice sheet is the second-largest ice sheet in the world, after the one that blankets Antarctica (https://www.livescience.com/21677-antarctica-facts.html). It covers the majority of Greenland and melts into the seas via outlet glaciers, which have been rapidly losing ice for decades. Now, new research finds that today's glacial ice loss is 14% greater than it was between 1985 and 1999. The ice sheet is losing approximately 500 gigatons of ice each year, more than is replenished by annual snowfall. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 06:41:21 PM

Greenland would be an awesome place to live. 

If only there were a way to warm it up by a few degrees Celsius....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 21, 2020, 09:18:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 05:58:38 PM

https://www.livescience.com/greenland-melt-point-of-no-return.html?utm_source=notification&fbclid=IwAR0XdQQmVQB7AWGvC52vz4bUwqjPYaFyqDwFucfKMgGezUJS1An1PMkvz0E (https://www.livescience.com/greenland-melt-point-of-no-return.html?utm_source=notification&fbclid=IwAR0XdQQmVQB7AWGvC52vz4bUwqjPYaFyqDwFucfKMgGezUJS1An1PMkvz0E)

The Greenland (https://www.livescience.com/61602-greenland-facts.html) Ice Sheet has reached a point of rapid retreat that it couldn't recover from even if global temperatures stopped rising instantly.

This Arctic ice sheet is the second-largest ice sheet in the world, after the one that blankets Antarctica (https://www.livescience.com/21677-antarctica-facts.html). It covers the majority of Greenland and melts into the seas via outlet glaciers, which have been rapidly losing ice for decades. Now, new research finds that today's glacial ice loss is 14% greater than it was between 1985 and 1999. The ice sheet is losing approximately 500 gigatons of ice each year, more than is replenished by annual snowfall.

Point of no return?  It will return if temps get low enough.  Which they eventually will.  Whether there is life as we know it on Earth when that happens is unknowable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 09:20:31 PM

As if there weren’t enough to think about these days, now there is talk of an asteroid supposedly heading directly for Earth.

The truth of the matter is, there is an asteroid, and it is headed in our general direction, but maybe not right at us. Still, that’s not stopping some from creating concern.


A flying space object known as 2018 VP1 is hurtling through our solar system right now, and it’s due to be in our vicinity in early November. An internet video and a few stories have created a bit of buzz for those who look for this type of information.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/features/2020/08/21/an-asteroid-is-on-possible-collision-course-with-earth-this-november-should-we-be-worried/ (https://www.clickondetroit.com/features/2020/08/21/an-asteroid-is-on-possible-collision-course-with-earth-this-november-should-we-be-worried/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 21, 2020, 10:27:22 PM

Maybe it will hit, fill the sky with dust, bring on global cooling, kill the Novel Coronavirus and 7 billion humans, and give mankind a fresh start with a pre-industrial civilization.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2020, 10:34:37 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on August 21, 2020, 09:18:32 PM

Point of no return?  It will return if temps get low enough.  Which they eventually will.  Whether there is life as we know it on Earth when that happens is unknowable.

That's the idea. We're not going to destroy earth.

We might just render it uninhabitable for humans. 

Nobody in the universe will mourn . We suck . 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 10:44:40 PM

And if nothing else, the Sun is increasing in luminosity at a constant rate. So it will bake the Earth long before it goes supernova, and engulfs the Earth entirely. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2020, 07:21:48 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 21, 2020, 10:44:40 PM

And if nothing else, the Sun is increasing in luminosity at a constant rate. So it will bake the Earth long before it goes supernova, and engulfs the Earth entirely. 

I have not seen data to support assertion one there, and assertion two is incorrect, our sun is too small to go supernova.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 22, 2020, 09:51:50 AM

It was on you tube, so it has to be true. O0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTLMXBEJrIY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTLMXBEJrIY)


Starting at the 4:40 mark, up until the 7:00 mark. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2020, 02:45:18 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 09:20:31 PM

As if there weren’t enough to think about these days, now there is talk of an asteroid supposedly heading directly for Earth.

The truth of the matter is, there is an asteroid, and it is headed in our general direction, but maybe not right at us. Still, that’s not stopping some from creating concern.


A flying space object known as 2018 VP1 is hurtling through our solar system right now, and it’s due to be in our vicinity in early November. An internet video and a few stories have created a bit of buzz for those who look for this type of information.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/features/2020/08/21/an-asteroid-is-on-possible-collision-course-with-earth-this-november-should-we-be-worried/ (https://www.clickondetroit.com/features/2020/08/21/an-asteroid-is-on-possible-collision-course-with-earth-this-november-should-we-be-worried/)

So, nuke it when it gets over China and Russia then?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2020, 02:49:14 PM

Everyone knows you have to land on it, dig a deep hole with drilling gear, and lower an H bomb into it.  One guy stays behind to set it off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 08:50:30 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2020, 02:45:18 PM

So, nuke it when it gets over China and Russia then?

absolutely
oops, we missed the target and hit China
so sorry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 09:01:55 AM

mid to upper 90s forecast here from today through Thursday

low 90s yesterday

no precip in sight

gonna stress the crops

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 09:32:29 AM

A raid in China just turned up 120,000 phony golf products, the largest counterfeit golf equipment seizure in history.

The raid was the result of the joint efforts of the U.S. Golf Manufacturers Anti-Counterfeiting Working Group and 100 local Shanghai police officers, who raided 10 facilities at the same time operating in the online equipment business. Products included clubs and clubheads, shafts, grips and bags.


According to officials with the Working Group, the counterfeit sales were coming from the Chinese online site Taobao, the world’s largest e-commerce site that is a consumer-to-consumer site much like ebay. The sellers were named “prettyspor” and “buddygolf.” The products, representing the brands Titleist, TaylorMade, PXG, Ping, Callaway, and XXIO, would have shipped directly from China.

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/120-00-fakes-seized-in-largest-golf-counterfeit-raid-ever?utm_medium=email&utm_source=082320&utm_campaign=golfworld (https://www.golfdigest.com/story/120-00-fakes-seized-in-largest-golf-counterfeit-raid-ever?utm_medium=email&utm_source=082320&utm_campaign=golfworld)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2020, 02:35:18 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 21, 2020, 10:34:37 PM

That's the idea. We're not going to destroy earth.

We might just render it uninhabitable for humans.

Nobody in the universe will mourn . We suck .

I don't think we suck - individuals chose to.Perhaps in this country we've forgotten what is for the greater good instead of special interests.Be the change you want to see regardless what it brings you - IMHO

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2020, 04:59:15 PM

I doubt we destroy the environment to make it uninhabitable for humans.  It might well not support 8 billion of us, but it really doesn't now.

Over fishing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 08:38:38 AM

Obviously, I'm pretty confident most all this yapping about climate change is political, and imagery, not substance.  Yes, electing A over B MIGHT yield some very modest reductions in the US, maybe.  If wind is so cheap now, it's going to continue no matter who is elected.  (I have some doubts about that being true.)

It would be "nice" in ANY event to reduce coal to the extent possible, and I'd be fine with some funding to facilitate/expedite that.  I suspect if it happened, Wyoming would gladly just ship more coal to China.  I doubt we ban coal mining any time soon.

The car thing is interesting as I'm interested in cars, and I think the next 10-15 years bring substantive changes in that sector.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2020, 12:45:36 PM

Researchers have developed a standalone device that converts sunlight, carbon dioxide and water into a carbon-neutral fuel, without requiring any additional components or electricity.

The device, developed by a team from the University of Cambridge, is a significant step toward achieving artificial photosynthesis—a process mimicking the ability of plants to convert sunlight into energy. It is based on an advanced 'photosheet' technology and converts sunlight, carbon dioxide and water into oxygen and formic acid—a storable fuel that can be either be used directly or be converted into hydrogen.

The results, reported in the journal Nature Energy, represent a new method for the conversion of carbon dioxide into clean fuels. The wireless device could be scaled up and used on energy 'farms' similar to solar farms, producing clean fuel using sunlight and water.


Harvesting solar energy to convert carbon dioxide into fuel is a promising way to reduce carbon emissions and transition away from fossil fuels. However, it is challenging to produce these clean fuels without unwanted by-products.

"It's been difficult to achieve artificial photosynthesis with a high degree of selectivity, so that you're converting as much of the sunlight as possible into the fuel you want, rather than be left with a lot of waste," said first author Dr. Qian Wang from Cambridge's Department of Chemistry.


https://techxplore.com/news/2020-08-wireless-device-fuel-sunlight-carbon.html (https://techxplore.com/news/2020-08-wireless-device-fuel-sunlight-carbon.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2020, 01:01:45 PM

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/turning-carbon-dioxide-back-into-fuel/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/turning-carbon-dioxide-back-into-fuel/)

2010 review on the general topic.

to replace the 20 million barrels of oil used every day in the U.S. (http://www.eia.doe.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home#tab2) alone—roughly 60 percent of which is imported—would require roughly 685 million concentrating solar dishes covering more than six million hectares of the desert Southwest. It would also require 62.4 trillion moles of concentrated CO2 per year. "That's the miracle we haven't addressed," Miller says.

replacing one oil field that produces 500,000 barrels a day would require a 100-square-kilometer algae-biofuel (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/biofuel-of-the-future) field, according to former oil man Dirks—and replacing the world's oil habit in that way would require thousands of such fields. "It will take at least 20 years before we get a material change in the existing system, by which I mean 15 to 20 percent of our liquid fuels coming from something we don't do right now," he says. "That's as fast as we can do it."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 30, 2020, 12:52:11 PM

The Dispatch
The Biden Agenda: Can Joe Walk a Fine Line on Climate Change?
He vows to spend big, but even that might not placate climate hawks.

Steven F. Hayward (https://thedispatch.com/people/15473882-steven-f-hayward)

Aug 27

19 (http://javascript:void(0))

48 (https://thedispatch.com/p/the-biden-agenda-can-joe-walk-a-fine/comments)

(http://javascript:void(0))

Good morning and welcome to the latest in our series, “The Biden Agenda.” We've invited some of the smartest thinkers and subject-matter experts we know to contribute to what will become an occasional series on what a Biden presidency might look like. Today, Steven F. Hayward, a climate-policy expert and resident scholar at the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC-Berkeley, examines Biden’s pledges related to climate change. Please see our past entries from Scott Lincicome on trade (https://thedispatch.com/p/the-biden-agenda-what-would-a-biden) and James C. Capretta on health care (https://thedispatch.com/p/how-biden-could-usher-in-an-aggressive).

With informed reports holding that Joe Biden sees the prolonged pandemic crisis and aftermath of the Trump presidency presenting a second New Deal moment in American history that calls for “going big” on sweeping economic and social restructuring plans, it is no surprise that he has thrown in with the “Green New Deal.” The biggest question about Biden’s plans is where each major element in his agenda will end up on the hierarchy of political priorities if he wins in November, and whether climate change will be a top-tier item.
 Already we can see Biden straining to link climate with other top-tier issues into a seamless package. Hard-core climate change activists—many now styling themselves “climate hawks” for whom anything less than radical steps are insufficient—harbor bad memories of the Obama administration, when climate change took a back seat to other political priorities. Many of those remain top priorities for a potential Biden administration, especially the perennials such as health care, education, new pro-union laws, and immigration reform. They’ll be joined this election season by racial justice programs and perhaps a universal basic income. So while Biden appears to be proposing to go far beyond the climate ambitions of the Obama presidency, it still likely won’t be enough to satisfy the climate hawks.
About all the climateers got out of Obama was a string of subsidized green-energy bankruptcies, plus an unambitious regulatory scheme for the electricity sector and Obama’s signature on the largely toothless Paris Climate Accord. Trump swept away the latter two with Obama’s leftover pen and phone. Meanwhile, old-fashioned fossil fuel energy sources, with the exception of coal, prospered during the Obama years, especially the natural gas boom brought about by fracking. Cheap natural gas—never part of Obama’s intended policy mix—accounts for most of the substantial reduction in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions over the last 15 years as gas-fired electricity became cheaper than coal. Plus, the domestic oil boom reversed decades of falling U.S. production and has favorably disrupted global petropolitics. It is possible that without the fossil fuel energy boom of Obama’s first term, he might have lost re-election in 2012, as it was about the only sector of the post-crash economy that grew substantially.
Biden, a practical and calculating politician if nothing else, likely understands this, which is why he has hedged on certain key points like fracking. While climate hawks (and several of his defeated rivals for the nomination) want all fracking banned everywhere immediately, Biden has pledged only to restrict new fracking and new oil and gas leases on federal land, and he has equivocated even on this. Biden’s “federal lands only” oil and gas policy could, ironically, shore up energy producers in existing fields on private and state land, many of whom are under severe pressure at the moment because of low energy prices.
In fact, some Wall Street analysts have upgraded domestic oil and gas companies they think will prosper under Biden’s proposal. While the climate hawks demand a “leave it in the ground” policy for fossil fuels, Biden’s proposal might be described as “leave some of it in the ground.” The climate hawks are not pleased and are grumbling about this deficiency.
As is typical for campaign proposals, Biden’s climate change plan is long on aspirations and goals, and light on details beyond offering a large spending pledge—$1.7 trillion in his first term—as his down payment. That figure might once have seemed eye-popping or absurd (the famous Obama stimulus of 2009 offered only $38 billion for energy initiatives). But at a time when Congress and a Republican president suddenly spend $3 trillion without batting an eye—and with seemingly no ill effect on interest rates or inflation—this figure could turn out to be modest. Bernie Sanders, after all, called for spending $16 trillion on the climate over the next decade, more than twice as much as Biden’s spending rate.
With the magical “modern monetary theory” firmly in the saddle (thus solving the Margaret Thatcher problem of “running out of other people’s money”), we shouldn’t be surprised to see upward pressure on the climate spending pledge. If nothing else, $2 trillion will float a lot of new Solyndras—the solar company that Biden praised as a source of “good, permanent jobs” when it opened, only to cost taxpayers $535 million when it went bankrupt. Solyndra (and similar green energy subsidy failures in the Obama years) may be forgotten now, and it doesn’t seem as though Biden learned much from it: He now says, “When I think about climate change, the word I think of is ‘jobs.’”
As addled as Biden seems at times, it is doubtful he will repeat Hillary Clinton’s mistake of saying “we’re going to put a lot of coal miners out of business,” even though his plan will surely do so and he foolishly agreed during one of the Democratic debates with the idea that lots of current energy jobs will need to be ended. Expect for his proposals to be wrapped up in a new “stimulus” or infrastructure bill (with a side order of “environmental justice” to thrill the race mongers), perhaps offering subsidies and tax breaks for more renewable energy projects and collateral projects such as new electricity transmission lines and development and deployment of battery technology. It is certain to be a rent-seekers delight, and a boon to the many private partnerships that currently harvest the tax code and renewable power purchase mandates for guaranteed profits. Treating energy as a jobs program is a recipe for policy mistakes and outright failures.
It was a given that any Democratic nominee would pledge to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord that Trump threw in the trash can, but in one concrete target Biden promises to go well beyond the ambitions of Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) for the electricity sector. Whereas the Obama CPP called for reducing electricity sector greenhouse gas emissions by 32 percent by the year 2030, Biden wants our electricity supply to be 100 percent carbon-free by 2035.
Biden probably can’t set after this ambitious target through the regulatory means Obama attempted to use (the Clean Air Act of 1970, written for conventional air pollutants of a very different nature than carbon dioxide), and would likely need new legislation from Congress that will essentially nationalize the nation’s electricity sector. Even a lot of green liberal states will balk at the total centralization of electricity policy. (Biden’s proposal implicitly recognizes this, saying that “he will demand that Congress enact legislation in the first year of his presidency” and that if it fails to do so, “Biden will hold them accountable.” It will be amusing to watch him campaign against Sen. Joe Manchin in a future election cycle, like FDR against anti-New Deal Democrats in 1938.)
The complete decarbonization of the electricity sector in 15 years would be prohibitively expensive if not impossible in practice, and can only be achieved the old-fashioned way—by cheating. In addition to the prospect of counting “offsets” such as massive tree planting and perhaps buying “carbon credits” from some new international market, the Biden plan promises more funding for research and development of carbon capture and sequestration technology (CCS), which after 20 years of research is still not affordable or scalable. Many environmentalists are unimpressed. In a roundup of criticisms from climate hawks, Gizmodo worries that “the plan’s bright spot on bringing the electricity sector’s emissions to zero by 2035 could end up being a mirage.”
In any case, the electricity sector accounts for only about a third of U.S. total greenhouse emissions. The other two-thirds come from transportation, household consumption, and other commercial and industrial activity, all of which depend heavily on carbon-producing fossil fuels. These facts become crucial when set against Biden’s larger target of reaching “net-zero” emissions by the year 2050. (Again note the cheating term “net-zero.”) Literally achieving this target requires phasing out nearly all oil, gas, and coal from the energy mix (the U.S. arguably hasn’t been carbon-neutral since the mid-19th century, if then—in other words, before coal, oil, and natural gas came into widespread use). Biden’s plan offers the usual magical thinking that we’ll make a rapid transition to electrified transportation (eventually reaching 100 percent of all new vehicles, but with no time frame specified) and that we’ll retrofit most homes and other buildings in the entire country. No one ever seems to do much math on these schemes, such as how much additional electricity capacity will be required from the supposed carbon-free sector, nor the hugely resource- (and energy)-intensive supply chain for vastly scaled up battery production.
One idea conspicuously missing from the Biden plan is a carbon tax or a border adjustment tax (which complicates the trade problem)—two measures that attract support from across a wide spectrum of the policy wonk world but whose politics remain prohibitive for both parties. On the other side of the ledger, the Biden plan embraces nuclear power, another indication that this once-taboo energy source is no longer under an environmental fatwa. (Even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has said recently she is “open” to nuclear power.) There is also a nod to “adaptation” to build resilience against natural disasters from any cause.
Even if it lets down the hard-core climate hawks, Biden’s aspirational plan contrasts easily with the Trump administration’s aggressive (and needless) hostility to climate policy, and thus will be enough to fire up the green precincts of the Democratic coalition on Election Day. Right now the Biden plan is mostly bread and circuses, but will get interesting after election day when, if Biden wins, the time comes to put forth proposals with serious details.
Steven F. Hayward is a resident scholar at the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley, and author of the Almanac of Environmental Trends.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 12:59:17 PM

right now it's mostly circuses

what makes anyone think there will be serious proposals after election day?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2020, 01:02:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 12:59:17 PM

right now it's mostly circuses

what makes anyone think there will be serious proposals after election day?

I'd say they could pass some tax breaks and more regulations, kind of like what Obama did, perhaps a bit more.  It will be smoke and mirrors of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 02:14:51 PM

Our legislators can take immediate action to stem the flow of plastic into California’s oceans. Right now, they can advance effective and ambitious solutions to address plastic pollution by passing Assembly Bill 1080, introduced by Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez, a Democrat from San Diego, and Senate Bill 54, introduced by Sen. Ben Allen, a Democrat from Santa Monica, together known as the California Circular Economy and Plastic Pollution Reduction Act.

There’s no time to waste.

More than 8 million tons of plastic enter the ocean each year – pollution that persists for decades to centuries. Animals as tiny as corals and as huge as whales eat this garbage, or get tangled in it, with sometimes fatal results. Science shows these plastic pieces are working their way through the food chain, raising important questions about impacts to human health. To date, the burden of paying for clean-up efforts has largely fallen on local governments and taxpayers.


https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2020/08/recycling-bills-would-help-stem-the-flow-of-plastic-into-the-ocean/ (https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2020/08/recycling-bills-would-help-stem-the-flow-of-plastic-into-the-ocean/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2020, 02:31:39 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 02:14:51 PM

More than 8 million tons of plastic enter the ocean each year

How much from California and how much from China? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 02:37:07 PM

probably less from Cali, they seem to be trying

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2020, 03:23:57 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 02:37:07 PM

probably less from Cali, they seem to be trying

I'm sure. People here try to be green and support green. 

This might be a really good idea.

But according to this (https://www.statista.com/chart/12211/the-countries-polluting-the-oceans-the-most/ (https://www.statista.com/chart/12211/the-countries-polluting-the-oceans-the-most/)) about 3.53M metric tons get into the ocean from China and 1.29M metric tons from Indonesia, while only 0.11M metric tons come from the US and if you assume that California at about 12% of the population of the United States (but with a long coastline) probaby only puts maybe 0.03 metric tons into the ocean on the high end, it gives this a different perspective.

The story says 8M metric tons per year go into the ocean as if that's a reason to justify policies in California, which is less than 1% of those 8M metric tons.

Again, maybe this is a really good idea. I think that, in general, we should try to be stewards of this planet and not screw it up. But if we're going to do a cost/benefit analysis on California's policies, at least MENTION that we're less than 1% of the problem. Because that puts the benefit in more perspective when weighed against the cost. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 03:27:40 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 31, 2020, 03:23:57 PM

But if we're going to do a cost/benefit analysis on California's policies, at least MENTION that we're less than 1% of the problem. Because that puts the benefit in more perspective when weighed against the cost.

don't screw this up with good information.  There's money to be made here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:13:43 PM

The US does a decent job with plastic waste, a great job as compared with Asia.  The "good news" is that plastic in our gut generally is unlikely to be dangerous.  Unlikely.

Hmmmmmmm.  The vast majority of plastic today is polyethylene.  

It's easy to recycle IF you can deliver a pure stream of the stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 04:19:38 PM

Dow closes more than 200 points lower but still notches best August since 1984

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:34:31 PM

NASDAQ was up a bit.  The Dow had a fairly significant change in members recently.  I magically have five times the number of Apple shares I had yesterday without buying any.  

I do not understand the stock market.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:38:04 PM

We left about noon for a bit of a walk today, the temperature was 81°F, but humidity was 83%.  In the sun it was pretty bad.

We dined outdoors and it had gone up to 86°F and the humidity had not dropped much, clouds were rolling in.

High humidity and no breeze is rough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 31, 2020, 09:25:01 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 31, 2020, 03:23:57 PM

I'm sure. People here try to be green and support green.

This might be a really good idea.

But according to this (https://www.statista.com/chart/12211/the-countries-polluting-the-oceans-the-most/ (https://www.statista.com/chart/12211/the-countries-polluting-the-oceans-the-most/)) about 3.53M metric tons get into the ocean from China and 1.29M metric tons from Indonesia, while only 0.11M metric tons come from the US and if you assume that California at about 12% of the population of the United States (but with a long coastline) probaby only puts maybe 0.03 metric tons into the ocean on the high end, it gives this a different perspective.

The story says 8M metric tons per year go into the ocean as if that's a reason to justify policies in California, which is less than 1% of those 8M metric tons.

Again, maybe this is a really good idea. I think that, in general, we should try to be stewards of this planet and not screw it up. But if we're going to do a cost/benefit analysis on California's policies, at least MENTION that we're less than 1% of the problem. Because that puts the benefit in more perspective when weighed against the cost.

And there's even a hidden cost to the environment when we get rid of plastics.  A lot of that stuff will be replaced by paper products.  Killing trees.
Is there some compelling reason we can't go back to having glass bottles with a deposit paid on them?  That was sure an effective way of recycling sand, AND getting soda bottles off the sides of the roads.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 31, 2020, 09:28:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2020, 01:02:10 PM

I'd say they could pass some tax breaks and more regulations, kind of like what Obama did, perhaps a bit more.  It will be smoke and mirrors of course.

Democracy in action.  The people want to be lied to on subjects like this, so they elect the best liars.
I'm really not high on mass democracy.  They don't have a good track record.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 08:02:16 AM

Lying is pretty effective, along with negative advertising.  Most ads are how bad the other guy is.  I tend to agree the other guy is bad, but I think most of them are bad.

There is simple math in this field that gets denied by deniers who think magical things will somehow change something that is obvious and immutable.

We have to do SOMETHING!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 04:43:14 AM

https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/11/Kelly-1.pdf (https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/11/Kelly-1.pdf)

Rather long, but what I've been saying, with a lot of figures and data.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2020, 02:21:57 PM

research team led by scientists from Argonne National Laboratory, the University of Chicago’s Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering and Northern Illinois University has discovered a new electrocatalyst that can consistently convert carbon dioxide and water into ethanol with very high energy efficiency and low cost.

Because carbon dioxide is a stable molecule, transforming it into a different molecule is normally energy intensive and costly.

But the new process can electrochemically convert the carbon dioxide emitted from industrial processes—such as fossil fuel or alcohol fermentation plants—into a valuable commodity at reasonable cost. Ethanol is an ingredient in nearly all U.S. gasoline and is widely used as an intermediate product in the chemical, pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries.

“The process resulting from our catalyst would contribute to the circular carbon economy, which entails the reuse of carbon dioxide,” said Di-Jia Liu, senior chemist in Argonne’s Chemical Sciences and Engineering division and a UChicago CASE scientist in the Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering at the University of Chicago.

The findings were published recently in the journal Nature Energy.

The team’s catalyst consists of atomically dispersed copper on a carbon-powder support. By an electrochemical reaction, this catalyst breaks down carbon dioxide and water molecules and selectively reassembles the broken molecules into ethanol under an external electric field.


https://news.uchicago.edu/story/new-catalyst-can-make-ethanol-out-carbon-dioxide (https://news.uchicago.edu/story/new-catalyst-can-make-ethanol-out-carbon-dioxide)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 03, 2020, 02:57:10 PM

Sounds intriguing. Can it economically scale? 

Not mentioned is the carbon dioxide source. Does it need to be sequestered from other industrial processes? Do we have the technology to do this? Or... Does the economic value of the ethanol produced make it economically viable for the entity trying to produce ethanol this way to purchase the CO2 at a high enough price from industrial producers to make it profitable for them to sequester carbon? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 03:11:37 PM

I'd guess it's far too early to have any more than guesses on those very good questions.  In my experience, the reportage of such developments can at times be rosey.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2020, 03:37:55 PM

I really felt like we could use some "rosey" contributions to this otherwise dire thread

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 03:49:05 PM

Indeed, converting CO2 to some hydrocarbon is subject to a lot of research, but it is energetically "uphill".  Plants do it remarkably well, I always wonder how these articial systems compare with just having more plant in the same volume of space.  The key is to take plants once fully grown and "entomb" them so they don't rot.

A tree basically is composed of water, CO2, combined with sunlight and time (and some minors).  They are quite amazing, and some trees like eucalyptus grow very rapidly in the right climate.

I like trees and have wondered if it would make sense to plant more trees along Interstate highways on the rights of way far enough from traffic to be no hazard.  Of course, that could make it hard to see the billboards.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2020, 03:58:11 PM

lots of places trees could be planted

my ex-wife planted plenty in my yard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 04:00:36 PM

The key thing with trees is what happens after they die.  If they just rot, or get burned, all the stored CO2 is unstored.

You need to make say paper towels with them and put them in landfills.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2020, 04:42:23 PM

Or make fine furniture and flooring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 05:29:20 PM

If we could desalinate salt water "cheaply", we could grow trees in the Sahara.  That likely would impact weather a bit, possibly a lot.  Or in the outback.

Anyway, I lean to thinking that is a more attractive was to decarbonize our air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 03, 2020, 05:51:36 PM

That's also a pretty big if.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 03, 2020, 07:34:49 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2020, 02:21:57 PM

research team led by scientists from Argonne National Laboratory, the University of Chicago’s Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering and Northern Illinois University has discovered a new electrocatalyst that can consistently convert carbon dioxide and water into ethanol with very high energy efficiency and low cost.

Because carbon dioxide is a stable molecule, transforming it into a different molecule is normally energy intensive and costly.

But the new process can electrochemically convert the carbon dioxide emitted from industrial processes—such as fossil fuel or alcohol fermentation plants—into a valuable commodity at reasonable cost.

Who are you? - what have you done with Fearless?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 09:58:32 PM

I think I'd rather work on water desalination than taking CO2 out of the air better than plants.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2020, 09:00:46 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on September 03, 2020, 07:34:49 PM

Who are you? - what have you done with Fearless?

Fearless has the day off - headed out to play 36

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 04, 2020, 09:18:14 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2020, 03:58:11 PM

lots of places trees could be planted

my ex-wife planted plenty in my yard

I thought you said she was out of hers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2020, 02:50:42 PM

Phone now projects a high of 109 here. Currently says 107.

If so, I believe 109 will set an all time record. I believe the highest temp ever recorded in Mission Viejo is 108.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:58:15 PM

If my weekly forecast showed up on any of ya'll's phones, you'd throw the phone in the trash can and find the nearest walk-in freezer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2020, 03:02:16 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:58:15 PM

If my weekly forecast showed up on any of ya'll's phones, you'd throw the phone in the trash can and find the nearest walk-in freezer.

When you left the frying pan (FL), it was your own mistake to jump into the fire (AZ), Fro! :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2020, 04:25:28 PM

Ten day forecast here looks great, though we're about to need some rain.  High Ts of 80°F or less by midmonth.

The bar next door for whatever reason is rather noisy right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 06, 2020, 05:52:49 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on September 06, 2020, 02:50:42 PM

Phone now projects a high of 109 here. Currently says 107.

If so, I believe 109 will set an all time record. I believe the highest temp ever recorded in Mission Viejo is 108.

Sorry to hear that,it's been beautiful fall 58-75 deg. between nite/day in N.E.Ohio

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2020, 07:17:09 PM

And it might be snowing in the rockies Tuesday. 
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/06/weather/holiday-weekend-weather-forecast-record-heat-cold-snap-snow/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 04:49:47 AM

https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained?utm_content=buffera5cb9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained?utm_content=buffera5cb9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

A rather lengthy review of the latest climate models and how they vary between each other (significantly), and how they have problems back-predicting what we think we know about temperature trends in the 20th century.

They can't all be right.  They are all very very complex.  The latest updates show more warming than the last one.  We've already warmed about 1°C, apparently, to the extent we can reliably measure global temperature.

It's not as easy as it may seem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:05:27 AM

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/climate-change-plastic-pollution (https://www.wired.co.uk/article/climate-change-plastic-pollution)

In September, the US consultancy A.T. Kearney asked 1,500 Germans what they thought had the strongest impact on reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) footprint of an average person. Of the seven choices listed, 22 per cent of them thought that cutting out plastic bags had the biggest impact on reducing CO2 – more than any other option. In reality, this saved the least of any of the proposed lifestyle changes: a reduction of just three kilograms of CO2 per person per year. Cutting out meat would reduce emissions by 450 kilograms (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-reduces-our-personal-co2-footprint-we-have-clue-frank-bilstein/), but respondents put it second-bottom in their ranking of the most impactful things they could do to reduce CO2 emissions.

In other words, we drastically overestimate the environmental impact of the small changes we are prepared to make, while underestimating the impact of changes that seem more extreme. These results weren’t from a scientific study – so take them with a pinch of salt – but they imply that our beliefs conform to what we think is tolerable, not what is best for the environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:06:22 AM

A 2019 report from Greenpeace (https://www.oceanographicmagazine.com/ghost-gear-greenpeace/) found that lost and abandoned fishing gear makes up the majority of large plastic waste in the ocean. A study into the Great Pacific Garbage Patch – the vast raft of floating debris that the Ocean Cleanup is attempting to mop up – estimated that 86 per cent of its mass was made up of fishing nets.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:10:59 AM

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/30/global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-are-on-the-brink-of-a-long-plateau/#b37e32c338d8 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/30/global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-are-on-the-brink-of-a-long-plateau/#b37e32c338d8)

The CPS implies a global decarbonization rate of about 2.1% per year to 2040, while the SPS implies a rate of about 2.8% per year. Neither of these values seems unrealistic, based on recent experience, and may even be conservative depending upon the degree to which policy makers act more aggressively than the stated policies they have already committed to. But these numbers remain far off from what would be needed if the world is to achieve deep decarbonization of 80% reductions or more from present levels. Achieving such a goal would require annual rates of decarbonization of 7.5% per year to hit a 2 degree Celsius target and 11.3% per year to hit a 1.5 degree target (https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/sustainability-climate-change/insights/low-carbon-economy-index.html). The emissions reduction challenge remains as daunting as ever (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 07:04:57 AM

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario (https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario)

While it is clear that the world is not currently moving in the direction of mitigation scenarios consistent with Paris Agreement targets (https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-limiting-warming-to-1-5c-requires-fivefold-increase-in-climate-commitments), it is much harder to use current emissions to determine which no-policy baseline is most likely much later in the century.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-limiting-warming-to-1-5c-requires-fivefold-increase-in-climate-commitments (https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-limiting-warming-to-1-5c-requires-fivefold-increase-in-climate-commitments)

The report suggests that existing nationally determined contributions (https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-are-intended-nationally-determined-contributions) (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement (https://www.carbonbrief.org/category/policy/paris-2015) are not sufficient. It adds that emission reductions from climate pledges need “to be roughly tripled” to limit warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels in 2100. Holding warming below 1.5C would require existing commitments to be “increased around fivefold”.

(https://i.imgur.com/SAOSljw.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 07:06:29 AM

To summarize, we're kidding ourselves, badly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 07:21:25 AM

I don't think there is much kidding going on, even a rudimentary look suggests it's a difficult problem to solve.  OTOH every effort at reducing carbon can have positive effects - this isn't a 50 or 100 year issue.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 07:26:28 AM

Folks are kidding themselves if they think many countries will meet their Paris commitments by 2030, and they are kidding themselves in thinking those commitments are anywhere near sufficient.

That's a lot of kidding in my book, a failure to confront obvious reality.  I think the political lens is the problem here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 08:03:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 07:26:28 AM

Folks are kidding themselves if they think many countries will meet their Paris commitments by 2030, and they are kidding themselves in thinking those commitments are anywhere near sufficient.

That's a lot of kidding in my book, a failure to confront obvious reality.  I think the political lens is the problem here.

What I mean is the Paris Accords aren't the only standards that exist

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 08:16:53 AM

Standards?  Huh?

I try and look at the data, not what someone someday hopes might maybe possibly happen by magic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 08:23:38 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 08:16:53 AM

Standards?  Huh?

I try and look at the data, not what someone someday hopes might maybe possibly happen by magic.

You keep talking about meeting the standards of the Paris Accords.  What I'm saying is even if those are not met, meeting half of them, or a quarter of them, or a tenth of them, is still doing something.  2 degrees is better than 3.  5 is better than 6.  9 is better than 10.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 09:05:46 AM

Is 3 degrees better than 3.1 degrees, at great expense?  There is a cost:benefit ratio to consider.

This whole story is out of the logical realm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 09:25:40 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 09:05:46 AM

Is 3 degrees better than 3.1 degrees, at great expense?  There is a cost:benefit ratio to consider.

This whole story is out of the logical realm.

It's not great. About a 3 percent reduction, same rate as some savings accounts.  There's not a lot of political will to do a lot, though in some respects it's like the COVID response, buying a bit of time and hoping for technological solutions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 10:46:46 AM

so if we dont reduce our carbon admission how long before the world ends as we know it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:13:38 AM

IF we hit say 5°C increase by 2100, life would indeed get difficult for many.  The US would be "OK" because we could mostly manage.

The reality is folks want to PRETEND that if we only spend a trillion dollars NOW it will significantly abate problems later.

Think of a guy who gains a pound a year for 30 years and weighs 250 pounds and is gaining more weight.  He decides to lost a pound a week for a year thus solving his problem.  He finds by eating on lettuce for a few weeks he has stopped gaining weight, but is not losing weight.  He's likely to get discouraged.

I'm a believer in devising the best assessment of reality possible and dealing with that, instead of waving one's hands and pretending things will be OK.

The Paris Accords are insufficient, AND they aren't going to be met anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 11:17:19 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:13:38 AM

IF we hit say 5°C increase by 2100, life would indeed get difficult for many.  The US would be "OK" because we could mostly manage.

The reality is folks want to PRETEND that if we only spend a trillion dollars NOW it will significantly abate problems later.

Think of a guy who gains a pound a year for 30 years and weighs 250 pounds and is gaining more weight.  He decides to lost a pound a week for a year thus solving his problem.  He finds by eating on lettuce for a few weeks he has stopped gaining weight, but is not losing weight.  He's likely to get discouraged.

I'm a believer in devising the best assessment of reality possible and dealing with that, instead of waving one's hands and pretending things will be OK.

The Paris Accords are insufficient, AND they aren't going to be met anyway.

has our temp increased and if yes over what time period

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:24:40 AM

The best guess is global T has increased about 1°C since 1880.  The rate of increase is increasing of late, apparently.

Governments claim they want to hold that increase under 2.0°C, which appears, to me, to be a ridiculous target.

(https://i.imgur.com/S7Yq8lW.png)

A problem with perception is that this increase is not enough to "feel" or really notice for the average human, so we're left with anecdotes or impressions or relying on graphs such as the one above.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 11:40:02 AM

and they think this increase is caused by man?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:42:21 AM

The span between 1940 and 1980 is not understood, nearly as I can discern, and is an obvious problem for the various models.  The climate appears to have warmed 1920 to 1940 or so and then the warming trend abated.  Then it kicked in again.  The increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere (which we can measure quite precisely) didn't show a corresponding decrease.

Then you throw in the enormous heat capacity of the oceans, changes in albedo, possible melting of permafrost, deforestation, changes in ocean currents, and a few other items and you have a very complex climate system.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:43:06 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 11:40:02 AM

and they think this increase is caused by man?

Depending on who "they" means, yes, the best scientific evidence indicates this increase is due to burning fossil fuels to increase CO2 levels in the air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 11:56:05 AM

I blame Trump

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 12:11:50 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 11:56:05 AM

I blame Trump and China

FIFY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 12:27:23 PM

and Bob Stoops

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 08, 2020, 12:38:49 PM

puppy kicking bastage

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on September 08, 2020, 01:51:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:05:27 AM

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/climate-change-plastic-pollution (https://www.wired.co.uk/article/climate-change-plastic-pollution)

In September, the US consultancy A.T. Kearney asked 1,500 Germans what they thought had the strongest impact on reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) footprint of an average person. Of the seven choices listed, 22 per cent of them thought that cutting out plastic bags had the biggest impact on reducing CO2 – more than any other option. In reality, this saved the least of any of the proposed lifestyle changes: a reduction of just three kilograms of CO2 per person per year. Cutting out meat would reduce emissions by 450 kilograms (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-reduces-our-personal-co2-footprint-we-have-clue-frank-bilstein/), but respondents put it second-bottom in their ranking of the most impactful things they could do to reduce CO2 emissions.

In other words, we drastically overestimate the environmental impact of the small changes we are prepared to make, while underestimating the impact of changes that seem more extreme. These results weren’t from a scientific study – so take them with a pinch of salt – but they imply that our beliefs conform to what we think is tolerable, not what is best for the environment.

Stupid Germans!

OAM, please take note.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on September 08, 2020, 01:56:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:42:21 AM

The span between 1940 and 1980 is not understood, nearly as I can discern, and is an obvious problem for the various models.  The climate appears to have warmed 1920 to 1940 or so and then the warming trend abated.  Then it kicked in again.  The increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere (which we can measure quite precisely) didn't show a corresponding decrease.

Then you throw in the enormous heat capacity of the oceans, changes in albedo, possible melting of permafrost, deforestation, changes in ocean currents, and a few other items and you have a very complex climate system.

Is there any thought that WWII might have been the big contributor in the 1940s?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 01:58:37 PM

if we cut out plastic bags Im guessing wed make them out of paper which would kill more trees

trees take in co2 and give off oxygen

fewer trees would add to the co2 buildup

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 02:10:10 PM

could make bags out of hemp

like rope!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 02:34:41 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 02:10:10 PM

could make bags out of hemp

like rope!

except I think youre still dealing with plants

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 02:58:08 PM

hemp plants are different from trees

or so I've been told on this thread

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 04:06:10 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on September 08, 2020, 01:56:48 PM

Is there any thought that WWII might have been the big contributor in the 1940s?

It correlates, and it's plausible it threw a lot of stuff up into the air, including contrails.  Aerosols at high altitude may deflect solar radiation significantly.

Of course, we dropped more ordinance on Vietnam than Germany/Japan by a good measure.

It makes sense to me to make some effort to limiting GHG, especially from coal, but we just might need to think about some alternatives given that the world isn't going to meet the Paris requirements, which in event are judged as being inadequate by a large factor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 06:17:48 PM

Making paper out of trees oddly enough is a CO2 sink (if we ignore the energy needed to make paper).  Paper generally gets entombed in a landfill (in the US) where the carbon is largely recalcitrant for a long time.  Of course, so are plastic bags.

Stuff put in landfills doesn't degrade if done properly.  Some does, and it causes issues.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 06:20:11 PM

So let's imagine the US invests say a trillion dollars in combating climate change, to pick a round figure.  And in a decade we discover that out efforts have removed only a tenth of a percent of the CO2 in the air that would otherwise be there.

Good investment?  I'd say not.  And the 0.1% figure if being quite generous.  On the other hand, we could use the money to prepare for the inevitable by building dams and dikes and what not, as @badgerfan advises.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 06:30:26 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 06:20:11 PM

So let's imagine the US invests say a trillion dollars in combating climate change, to pick a round figure.  And in a decade we discover that out efforts have removed only a tenth of a percent of the CO2 in the air that would otherwise be there.

Good investment?  I'd say not.  And the 0.1% figure if being quite generous.  On the other hand, we could use the money to prepare for the inevitable by building dams and dikes and what not, as @badgerfan advises.

A decade seems so short as to not even be worth talking about.  It's like not investing your money because the return is only .1% after a couple days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 08, 2020, 08:04:47 PM

When the underbrush of a forest becomes overgrown, it begins to choke out it's ecosystem. While a forest fire may be devastating in the short term, in the long run it is the best thing that can happen to it, as life can once again flourish in it's aftermath. They even set controlled forest fires intentionally, because they are good for the forest long term.

In many ways intelligent life has the same effect on its host planet as the overgrown underbrush has on the forest floor. The best thing that could happen to the Earth and its environment would be for a proverbial "forest fire" to wipe us out; allowing the Earth to revert back to its natural state and virtually erase any trace of our existence upon its surface. 

Now that "forest fire" could be an outside force inflicted upon us, such as the asteroid that bwarbiany is hoping for. But it is much more likely that we will be wiped out by the unintended consequences of our own technological advancements. So far we have survived our nuclear age, and our altercations to the molecular make up of our atmosphere. So far we have survived our dabblings in artificial intelligence, genetic engineering and biological warfare. So far we haven't replaced human spouses with sex cyborgs that can cook and clean and do housework; dropping our birthrate to zilch. But all of these technologies are only in their infancy, and each has the potential to wipe us out at any moment. 

Now if you think about it, "climate change" is probably the most eco-friendly "forest fire" that we could inflict upon ourselves; as it is just burning up a small part of our ecosystem. The worst "forest fire" that we could wipe ourselves out with would probably be the ole "Terminator" style apocalypse, where we are overthrown and wiped out by our own AI. In that case we might leave behind a bloodthirsty machine civilization that, after it got done with us, might view other biological organisms as their primary threat, and wipe all of them out until there is absolutely nothing left on Earth that even remotely resembles an organic compound. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 09:37:29 PM

Organic compounds are pretty persistent,  like say methane.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 08, 2020, 11:29:10 PM

A machine civilization would need neither air nor water. They could eliminate the atmosphere and evaporate the oceans in order to wipe out all life on this Earth. 

Sure there might be some microbes deep underground. But rather than digging them up, they might begin searching out life to eradicate on other planets. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 06:49:57 AM

There would still be methane.  And other hydrocarbons even so.

Organic compounds do not require life to generate.  That was an old belief, put to rest when urea was synthesized in a lab.

If machines eliminated the atmosphere, they'd have to be able to operate at extremely cold temperatures.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 12:17:51 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s600x600/118884192_4583379648342389_303308061687271418_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=fAp_w9Wn7xwAX-sFj23&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=43ba5b1936814e7d1a7fff8da37048b6&oe=5F801D72)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 12:19:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 12:17:51 PM

[img width=600 height=501.989 alt=Image may contain: food, text that says 'SWEAR JAR Telling people about science when I wasn't asked.']https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s600x600/118884192_4583379648342389_303308061687271418_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=fAp_w9Wn7xwAX-sFj23&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=43ba5b1936814e7d1a7fff8da37048b6&oe=5F801D72[/img]

Bwahahahahahaha!

"Everyone's an epidemiologist" is the new "everyone's a climate scientist." :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 09, 2020, 01:15:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 06:49:57 AM

There would still be methane.  And other hydrocarbons even so.

Organic compounds do not require life to generate.  That was an old belief, put to rest when urea was synthesized in a lab.

If machines eliminated the atmosphere, they'd have to be able to operate at extremely cold temperatures.

Heh, okay Dr Zaius. Point taken. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 09, 2020, 01:16:52 PM

After seemingly having highs in the 100s and 110s since early May, this is the second day in a row with a high in the 70s. 

Looks like it will be back up to 100 by wednesday. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 01:56:04 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 12:19:44 PM

"Everyone's an epidemiologist" is the new "everyone's a climate scientist." :)

When I was working, I'd get in these LONG discussions about climate change with a couple of coworkers.  I got Nature and Science across my desk, I usually barely glanced at them, but I took a shot at reading a few articles on the topic.

I needed a thesaurus, especially for the acronyms.  Nearly as I could tell, the article was a find adjustment to some parameter in a model with 20 or more parameters.

It is amazing how much gets published these days, and I'd say nearly all of it is crap, just something of no real interest to build up resumes and get tenure.  I speak from experience, having done a bit of that myself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 02:35:06 PM

What about the Keynesian benefits of the investment in reducing CO2 emissions? So, taking your (CD's) example, where there is a small impact on the environment, what if there's a big economic benefit as a result of job creation, reduction of the wage gap, increase in federal tax revenue, overall dramatic improvement in the US's infrastructure (which is approximately 40 years behind where it should be), etc.? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 02:51:22 PM

I would argue the trillion could be spent on other things that might be more useful and more productive longer term.  Or the money could be spent partly on other things, like infrastructure, the grid, whatever.

But our electricity system is mostly private.

This is if we're spending a trillion at all, and if the economy somehow needed a boost.

One of the Keynesian thoughts was that during good times we'd run a surplus.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 02:56:48 PM

It wasn't that long ago that we did, but over the last twenty years, we have had the ridiculous combination of increasing spending and cutting taxes. That's not Keynesian, that's stupid. But it also isn't directly related to weather, climate, and the environment.

Oh, and our private ownership of the grid is stupid, too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 03:01:57 PM

My own "plan", as I've mentioned before, would be to make elimination of coal burning for electricity the priority.  Since that is baseline power, you'd probably need more NG in the interim, which is better.  If I really really really thought climate change was "world ending" to some degree, I'd be pushing nuclear hard as the only practicable option.

Wind and solar are fine, but insufficient, by the numbers.  A handful of enviro types have mentioned nuclear, they seem to get shouted down.

So, we're left with no viable option, just verbiage and spin and promises and hot air and commitments and silliness like the GND.

That is why I view most of this as a social restructuring effort having nothing to do with the environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 03:15:00 PM

I would sign up for your plan. Nuclear needs to be part of the plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 03:16:13 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 03:15:00 PM

I would sign up for your plan. Nuclear needs to be part of the plan.

It's nonactionable.  Folks want cake AND ice cream, not one or the other.

We have a null set of solutions in practical terms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 03:17:52 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 02:56:48 PM

It wasn't that long ago that we did, but over the last twenty years, we have had the ridiculous combination of increasing spending and cutting taxes. That's not Keynesian, that's stupid. But it also isn't directly related to weather, climate, and the environment.

Oh, and our private ownership of the grid is stupid, too.

I'm not convinced the government would be a better owner

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 03:18:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 03:16:13 PM

It's nonactionable.  Folks want cake AND ice cream, not one or the other.

We have a null set of solutions in practical terms.

and folks get want they want from politicians because they cast ballots

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 03:33:37 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 03:17:52 PM

I'm not convinced the government would be a better owner

I should have been more specific, our disparate ownership of transmission lines is stupid. The U.S. has an inefficient grid because it isn't economically rational for any one owner of transmission lines to upgrade its portion of the system when the hundreds of other power line owners don't upgrade theirs. As a result, we have a relatively inefficient set of transmission lines. It may well be that private ownership is better than public ownership, but more consolidated ownership would make a great deal more sense than what we have now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 03:46:41 PM

so, a much larger monopoly?  Just kidding...

Apparently, Warren Buffett doesn't want to own and operate the entire grid, possibly because of some of the issues you're referring to

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 03:53:59 PM

A strictly regulated (it's already regulated, but not strictly) oligopoly might make the most sense. It would make more sense than what we have now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 04:40:15 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 03:18:46 PM

and folks get want they want from politicians because they cast ballots

They get what they thing they want, like more spending and lower taxes.  Short term, great idea, lots of fun while the sun shines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 04:54:33 PM

I'd prefer much less spending and lower taxes, but what the hell

why I don't like voting for them

they spend more and my taxes aren't much less

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 06:06:04 PM

I think with a bit of work and some technical help I could devise "A PLAN" that wouldn't satisfy everyone, or even a majority, but it would perhaps provide the most benefit for the fewest dollars spent.

I'm fairly optimistic about EVs (and autonomous), and that is another demand side for the System, even if a lot of it is at night.

My PLAN would include nuclear, and spent fuel reprocessing, and a standardized reactor design.  Maybe the SMRs could play a role, they seem to be getting closer to reality, maybe.  The Grid thing might not need to be nationalized IFF we could harmonize its components with some sensible "regulation".  Texas is doing its own thing.

I am curious why more private homes in Phoenix and LV don't have PVs on the roof.  What is the barrier there?  Upfront capital could be allayed variously.

I'd want every wind turbine to include decommissioning fees upfront.  Same with anything else.  The goal would be to eliminate nearly all coal fired e generation by say 2030.  Nuclear is the best substitute.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 09, 2020, 06:15:25 PM

There is some huge "solar tree" field in Delta Utah that cost millions and never worked. It just sits there all abandoned, as it drifts into a state of disrepair.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wI7YePPNPY&ab_channel=RoadTrippinNomad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 09, 2020, 06:40:33 PM

Allegedly this was a fraud from the start:
https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=3223676&itype=cmsid (https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=3223676&itype=cmsid)

https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/delta-solar-ruins (https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/delta-solar-ruins)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 09, 2020, 07:02:27 PM

Yep.

Someone thought that they should DO SOMETHING to combat climate change, and surprise, surprise. An opportunist figured out a way to line his pockets by exploiting their mindless devotion to political activism.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 01:10:47 PM

Warren Buffett isn't putting up thousands of windmills to lose money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2020, 04:07:52 PM

I copied this from The Hill regarding a Democratic Reolution:

The resolution states a goal for the U.S. to move to entirely carbon-free electricity by 2035, in addition to ensuring the global temperature does not increase another 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the resolution does not offer specifics about how to reach those goals.

This is the sort of posturing that annoys me about Congress, passing some "resolution" with GOALS and zero enablement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 09:21:49 AM

https://phys.org/news/2020-09-high-fidelity-earth-climate-history-current.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-09-high-fidelity-earth-climate-history-current.html)

For the first time, climate scientists have compiled a continuous, high-fidelity record of variations in Earth's climate extending 66 million years into the past. The record reveals four distinctive climate states, which the researchers dubbed Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, and Icehouse.

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2020/highfidelity.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 10:53:52 AM

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/25/the-greenland-ice-sheet-has-melted-past-the-point-of-no-return?fsrc=gp_en?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/dailychartthegreenlandicesheethasmeltedpastthepointofnoreturngraphicdetail&fbclid=IwAR3aSBKT0DNXEm8JB5Plxt6N_ywfcn3PnJVq8NimO7ZvmH9D4WWlxv5fcfQ (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/25/the-greenland-ice-sheet-has-melted-past-the-point-of-no-return?fsrc=gp_en?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/dailychartthegreenlandicesheethasmeltedpastthepointofnoreturngraphicdetail&fbclid=IwAR3aSBKT0DNXEm8JB5Plxt6N_ywfcn3PnJVq8NimO7ZvmH9D4WWlxv5fcfQ)

The ice loss, they think, is now so great that it has triggered an irreversible feedback loop: the sheet will keep melting, even if all climate-warming emissions are miraculously curtailed. This is bad news for coastal cities, given that Greenland boasts the largest ice sheet on the planet after Antarctica. Since 2000 its melting ice has contributed about [color=var(--ds-color-beijing)]a millimetre a year to rising sea levels[/color] (https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/06/22/greenlands-ice-sheet-is-melting-unusually-fast). The loss of the entire ice sheet would raise them by more than seven metres, enough to reconfigure the majority of the world’s coastlines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 11:11:10 AM

I'm at 1000 feet and live on a hill

being at 977 wouldn't be so bad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 11:15:04 AM

I too am at a thousand feet, but obviously seven feet would be devastating for many coastal cities.  And guess where most people live?

However, that isn't going to happen "soon".  The ice sheet is enormous.  

We COULD have a one meter rise in sea level by 2100, maybe, according to some of the models.

The Arctic ice cap does almost nothing to impact sea level if it melts because it floats.  

One problem I do have with the "alarmists" is they seek the most dire outcome to project and when that doesn't happen a lot of folks go "Meh".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 11:18:07 AM

you'd think they might change their strategy

since it's failed miserably for decades

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 12:04:54 PM

Whoever "they" are, when I've talked to the Doomsters, without exception, they actually know NOTHING about the theory of climate change that is real, or if they do, I couldn't find it.  They call me a denier for trying to clarify a few issues for them.  My step son in law actually quoted Gore's ridiculous movie as an authority that claimed CO2 levels had NEVER been this high in the history of the planet.  I guffawed.

I suppose part of this is simply use of scare tactics to elicit action.  But you're correct, it isn't working very well.  Gore made this political, "us and them", and that was among his many disservices.

But then I also realize a more accurate and dispassionate presentation would not have made as many converts.  Now we're into politicized wackiness.

Let's have another meeting in the Maldives by thousands of people to issue more statements and promises and warnings.  Yeah.

I'm fed up with it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 11, 2020, 05:21:56 PM

https://twitter.com/moms4nuclear/status/1304473231743574016?s=19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2020, 06:19:15 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pN7VQas4OgQ&t=739s&ab_channel=WisdomLand

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 05:07:57 AM

I still wonder how folks can view this as a major problem today and not have any better proposed solutions than throw money at it.

That is why I view this whole "movement" as being political, it's a chance to spend a LOT of money on "stuff" and those monies can be used to pay off supporters, without really addressing the problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 12, 2020, 06:54:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 05:07:57 AM

I still wonder how folks can view this as a major problem today and not have any better proposed solutions than throw money at it.

That is why I view this whole "movement" as being political, it's a chance to spend a LOT of money on "stuff" and those monies can be used to pay off supporters, without really addressing the problem.

Probably not going to get very far with the easy and free ideas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 06:57:31 AM

I'd settle for some actual practicable ideas that isn't just poppycock and vague throw money at it notions.

Cost:benefit and that sort of thing.

How much CO2 does this reduce versus baseline?  What does it cost?  How much will that reduce climate change?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2020, 08:14:27 AM

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/11/897692090/how-big-oil-misled-the-public-into-believing-plastic-would-be-recycled (https://www.npr.org/2020/09/11/897692090/how-big-oil-misled-the-public-into-believing-plastic-would-be-recycled)

Think you are recycling?  Think again.  This is largely a scam.  We've known this for decades.  I toured a recycling center in Cincy when I started working on "renewable" plastic stuff.  Everyone there knew it was a scam.  This is just another example of how projects get started and folks don't want to HEAR THE TRUTH, much like gasohol and the notion Democrats can do anything about climate change.  We prefer delusion over truth when truth is uncomfortable, but it's still truth.

"I remember the first meeting where I actually told a city council that it was costing more to recycle than it was to dispose of the same material as garbage," she says, "and it was like heresy had been spoken in the room: You're lying. This is gold. We take the time to clean it, take the labels off, separate it and put it here. It's gold. This is valuable."
But it's not valuable, and it never has been. And what's more, the makers of plastic — the nation's largest oil and gas companies — have known this all along, even as they spent millions of dollars telling the American public the opposite.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2020, 08:23:57 AM

most folks can't handle the truth

they are weak

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2020, 08:27:28 AM

Back in the day, my company was putting tens of millions into this, including a large cadre of chemists and engineers.  I was one of them.  It was kind of exciting at first, it was being hailed as THE critical project within R&D.  A VP supervising the overall effort was said to be an "un and comer", and indeed she later got promoted right after the project collapsed.

I had an "idea" and our group pursued it.  Money was no object.  I was spending hundreds of thousands a month on testing of new materials.  My bosses said not to worry about budget.  The larger group was working on a new back sheet for diapers and we were working on a new absorbent material for diapers.  I began to notice their efforts were, well, not very promising in my view technically.  Our own work was "interesting" but we kept encountering technical problems, and we'd shift to a new tactic and found other problems.

I started reading, a lot of information was available, and it became VERY apparently that "composting" was a nonstarter.  Recycling was a sham.  The information was out there, it was obvious, backed up by facts, and I put together a short report summarizing all of this.

Holy Hell.

Here I am, a low level technical guy who deigned to note the Emperor not only had no cloths, his hair was on fire.

I cam back from lunch one day to find my boss' boss in my office (fortunately he was on my side).  He told me not to write anything like that ever again, and to find whatever I could on line and eliminate it.  This was ca. 1992.  It was explosive, I had basically destroyed the efforts of hundreds of people, and the logic and facts could not be refuted.

Obviously I protested a bit, and he raised his hand and said to me "You're not listening.  This is not an option.  You will do this.  You need to trust me on this."

Fortunately, I did, I kept my own copies of course.

The lame efforts went on another 18 months or so.  The diaper back sheet program folded first, and all of their folks started coming to our meetings.  That was funny.  We went from 15 people to 30, as they tried to try and "help".

We went on another few months like that, and it was clear my idea for a biodegradable plastic material had too many fundamental issues that could not be solved.  The ideas being advanced by other companies were not working either.

Tens of millions of dollars.  For a PR sham.  The lady VP was promoted.  I was transferred over my objections to a particularly lame project.  Everyone else scurried about like roaches when the light is turned on looking for a spot to land.

I became rather demotivated and negative.  I had learned to pull out the key issues up front, and keep them to myself, while pretending to DO SOMETHING.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2020, 08:28:06 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 13, 2020, 08:23:57 AM

most folks can't handle the truth

they are weak

YOU WANT THE TRUTH, LIEUTENANT CAFFEY?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 19, 2020, 12:13:22 PM

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2019/12/01/we-are-throwing-money-at-the-wrong-solutions-to-climate-change/ (https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2019/12/01/we-are-throwing-money-at-the-wrong-solutions-to-climate-change/)

Argument we are spending our money poorly ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 19, 2020, 12:59:19 PM

Fascinating, to me:

https://phys.org/news/2020-09-sea-ice-triggered-age.html?fbclid=IwAR0rpTXPz05gp_5GBK9jbjCp901A12dY12KgokYf2CPu8VvAAsC6qVd0hb0 (https://phys.org/news/2020-09-sea-ice-triggered-age.html?fbclid=IwAR0rpTXPz05gp_5GBK9jbjCp901A12dY12KgokYf2CPu8VvAAsC6qVd0hb0)

The study, published in Science Advances, reports a comprehensive reconstruction of sea ice transported from the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait, by Greenland, and into the North Atlantic Ocean over the last 1400 years. The reconstruction suggests that the Little Ice Age—which was not a true ice age but a regional cooling centered on Europe—was triggered by an exceptionally large outflow of sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic in the 1300s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 09:17:36 AM

well we are due for another storm to hit next week

the current track shows it hitting south of here then doing a 90 degree right turn and going northeast

this would take the eye right over my house

oh joy

good news there wont be much wind 30 to 40 maybe but depending on how fast Beta moves we will get anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of rain

all I care about is not losing power

if the power stays on Im a happy camper

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 09:30:59 AM

As of 8 a.m. Sunday, TS Beta was located about 200 miles southeast Galveston, Texas, and about 290 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas, with sustained winds of 60 mph. It’s moving west-northwest at at 3 mph.

Looks like a heavy rain event.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 09:35:19 AM

One of the things on my list of purchases when I get to Florida is a whole-house generator.

I'll probably buy a Honda in the meantime, to keep the fridge going.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 09:42:46 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 09:35:19 AM

One of the things on my list of purchases when I get to Florida is a whole-house generator.

I'll probably buy a Honda in the meantime, to keep the fridge going.

yep thats next on my list after a new roof

all it takes is money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 09:49:53 AM

https://www.generac.com/digitalad2?cid=digitalad-ppc-v1&gclid=CjwKCAjw-5v7BRAmEiwAJ3DpuMcqDmJi2i6B6lYffN_TAzVVPYKao2XHiPjW_S8nNjB43ZQ-0fWvBRoCwAgQAvD_BwE (https://www.generac.com/digitalad2?cid=digitalad-ppc-v1&gclid=CjwKCAjw-5v7BRAmEiwAJ3DpuMcqDmJi2i6B6lYffN_TAzVVPYKao2XHiPjW_S8nNjB43ZQ-0fWvBRoCwAgQAvD_BwE)

Are these any good?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 09:58:31 AM

My plan would be to get a Cummins. Generac is a step below.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 10:04:10 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 09:58:31 AM

My plan would be to get a Cummins. Generac is a step below.

you can spend anywhere from $4,000 to $14,000 on a home generator both of those will do the job

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 10:05:35 AM

I'm looking at about $10K. I want to have everything working, including the AC. Pool is solar so no issues there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 10:10:03 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 10:05:35 AM

I'm looking at about $10K. I want to have everything working, including the AC. Pool is solar so no issues there.

$10K should do it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 10:14:38 AM

How much would it be to add in some PVs on the roof?  Maybe enough to drive the AC?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 10:26:15 AM

Well, I've thought about that. It would probably cover the entire roof. Right now, the pool alone takes up about 400sf. 

We put in hurricane windows, which are also energy savers. Quadruple pane, compared with the single panes that we had (got rid of the shutters too).

Between that and the solar, we dumped about $30K. Need to stop the bleeding for a while.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 20, 2020, 11:14:37 AM

Do yourself a favor and be sure to get an inverter generator.  They're more expensive because they're worth it.

How much power would you need for an average whole-house genny?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 11:24:47 AM

Im pretty sure these two home generators come with inverters 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 12:27:05 PM

Is that a generator that is upside down?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2020, 08:49:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 09:49:53 AM

https://www.generac.com/digitalad2?cid=digitalad-ppc-v1&gclid=CjwKCAjw-5v7BRAmEiwAJ3DpuMcqDmJi2i6B6lYffN_TAzVVPYKao2XHiPjW_S8nNjB43ZQ-0fWvBRoCwAgQAvD_BwE (https://www.generac.com/digitalad2?cid=digitalad-ppc-v1&gclid=CjwKCAjw-5v7BRAmEiwAJ3DpuMcqDmJi2i6B6lYffN_TAzVVPYKao2XHiPjW_S8nNjB43ZQ-0fWvBRoCwAgQAvD_BwE)

Are these any good?

I spent about $10K for new air cooled 22KW Generacs at our remote equipment offices

the oldest are a year old, so far no issues


was spending $30K for water cooled industrial generators.  They are great and last 30 years.

time will tell, if they don't get much use, I think the $10K option is best, especially for residential 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2020, 08:55:10 PM

the generators we use for equipment power rectifiers that power battery strings that supply -48 volt power for electronics

the batteries also power inverters for 110v power

we also use transfer switches that detect when commercial grid power goes down, starts the generator and switches to generator power

the lights just flicker and then the generator is online

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 23, 2020, 10:27:46 AM

By applying satellite corrections to SOCAT data from 1992 to 2018 to account for temperature differences between the surface and at a few meters’ depth, the researchers find a substantially higher ocean uptake of carbon dioxide than previously thought. They were able to do this thanks to data from a suite of satellites such as ESA’s Envisat, NOAA’s AVHRR, EUMETSAT’s MetOp series, and the Copernicus Sentinel-3 mission, firstly as part of the OceanFlux research project (part of ESA’s Science for Society program) and then continued within two EU-funded projects.

The corrected figures reveal that the net flux of carbon into the oceans is underestimated by up to 0.9 Gigatonnes of carbon per year – a significant amount that, at times, doubles uncorrected values.

“These results are consistent with independent estimates of the size of the oceanic carbon sink – those based on global ocean surveys by research ships,” adds co-author Jamie Shutler, also of the University of Exeter. “Now that these two separate estimates of the size of the carbon dioxide ocean sink agree pretty well, we can view and use their results with greater confidence, and trust that they are most likely giving us an accurate picture of what is going on.”


https://scitechdaily.com/our-oceans-are-capturing-more-carbon-than-expected-underestimated-by-up-to-900000000-metric-tons-of-carbon-per-year/ (https://scitechdaily.com/our-oceans-are-capturing-more-carbon-than-expected-underestimated-by-up-to-900000000-metric-tons-of-carbon-per-year/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2020, 11:56:13 AM

How full of shit can one person be?


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinas-xi-pledges-to-ax-carbon-emissions-by-2060/ar-BB19nVmC?li=BBnb7Kz (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinas-xi-pledges-to-ax-carbon-emissions-by-2060/ar-BB19nVmC?li=BBnb7Kz)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 11:58:42 AM

I think it's fairly astute and clever.  The imagery is good for him on this.

When you can get some positive imagery for doing absolutely nothing tangible, it's good.

I promise to lose my excess weight by 2060.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 12:28:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 11:58:42 AM

I think it's fairly astute and clever.  The imagery is good for him on this.

When you can get some positive imagery for doing absolutely nothing tangible, it's good.

I promise to lose my excess weight by 2060.

Well sure, it's what politicians have always done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 12:51:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 11:58:42 AM

I think it's fairly astute and clever.  The imagery is good for him on this.

When you can get some positive imagery for doing absolutely nothing tangible, it's good.

I promise to lose my excess weight by 2060.

Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 12:28:32 PM

Well sure, it's what politicians have always done.

Yep. 

Gavin Newsom says no new ICE cars will be allowed to be sold in California in 15 years, by executive order. 

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/09/23/newsom-bans-new-gas-cars-and-begs-trump-for-a-fight-1317947

He would be term-limited out in 6 years. 

So he won't have to deal with the fallout of his decision, which could be rescinded immediately by the next Governor because it's only an executive order and not a law. 

But he looks like he's doing something. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 01:02:00 PM

burfle

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 01:09:42 PM

I think by 2035 the market will have already gone to mostly EVs anyway for new vehicles, especially in urban/suburban areas.

And I think the changes inherent in autonomous are going to be fascinating and dramatic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 01:31:02 PM

expecting record highs this weekend in Omaha and Lincoln

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 01:43:22 PM

The tri-motor AWD vehicle, according to Musk, will offer 520 miles of range and 1100 horsepower. That range bests Lucid’s EPA estimated 517 miles that was announced last month. The Model S Plaid has a top speed of 200 mph. As Tesla puts it, "The only thing beyond Ludicrous is Plaid.”

Of course all that speed and cost will cost you a pretty penny. Actually quite a lot of pennies. The Model S Plaid costs $139,990 making it out of reach for all but a few—and a far cry from the $25,000 EV Musk also promised, but that one not for three years.


https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34115854/tesla-model-s-plaid-1100-hp-pre-order/?utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR2O9ni8_zpbWP6gIz4Ytgr_rJM_hoz86QfYPPCBcbUR3Ax6Ls9uWMjS1yI (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34115854/tesla-model-s-plaid-1100-hp-pre-order/?utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR2O9ni8_zpbWP6gIz4Ytgr_rJM_hoz86QfYPPCBcbUR3Ax6Ls9uWMjS1yI)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 02:01:03 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 01:43:22 PM

The tri-motor AWD vehicle, according to Musk, will offer 520 miles of range and 1100 horsepower. That range bests Lucid’s EPA estimated 517 miles that was announced last month. The Model S Plaid has a top speed of 200 mph. As Tesla puts it, "The only thing beyond Ludicrous is Plaid.”

Of course all that speed and cost will cost you a pretty penny. Actually quite a lot of pennies. The Model S Plaid costs $139,990 making it out of reach for all but a few—and a far cry from the $25,000 EV Musk also promised, but that one not for three years.


https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34115854/tesla-model-s-plaid-1100-hp-pre-order/?utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR2O9ni8_zpbWP6gIz4Ytgr_rJM_hoz86QfYPPCBcbUR3Ax6Ls9uWMjS1yI (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34115854/tesla-model-s-plaid-1100-hp-pre-order/?utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR2O9ni8_zpbWP6gIz4Ytgr_rJM_hoz86QfYPPCBcbUR3Ax6Ls9uWMjS1yI)

Sounds amazing!  What's the towing range with a 9,000 lb trailer behind it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 03:10:05 PM

probably 499 miles

with 1100 HP it wouldn't even know the trailer was hitched

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 03:31:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 03:10:05 PM

probably 499 miles

with 1100 HP it wouldn't even know the trailer was hitched

499 miles?  Sign me up for one right now!!!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 03:43:11 PM

they will need the $139,990 deposit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 03:45:32 PM

I like it when politicians who could be in office for only 8 more years at most promise to hit some goal 15 years from now (or more).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 03:46:39 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 03:43:11 PM

they will need the $139,990 deposit

If it can tow 9,000 lbs for 499 miles, I'll take TWO!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 04:10:51 PM

A Ford pickup can tow more than that for 500 miles on one tank of gas for less than half the price

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 04:41:57 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 04:10:51 PM

A Ford pickup can tow more than that for 500 miles on one tank of gas for less than half the price

That's the joke. :)

There's absolutely no way any Tesla EV has a towing range of 499 miles for a 9,000 lb trailer.  I'd be surprised if it could even do 100 miles.  Which is my point, every time I bring this up.  All of the folks predicting a complete changeover to all EV by 2035, or 2050, or 2070, aren't accounting for all of the use cases.  And I'll add that towing isn't even a corner case, it's a very common use case.

(I'm not saying CD made the assertion that all vehicles would be EV by 2035 or any other year, just pointing out the challenges with getting ENTIRELY there, in ANY future year.  The ICE just isn't going away for EVERY application, any time in the even the NOT near term).

Also I'll point out that not ALL Ford pickups can tow more than that on one tank of gas.  250/350 diesels can, but my F150 gas-turbo can do about 350-400 miles on one tank (36 gallons) towing my 9,000 lb trailer.  Around 10-11 mpg.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 04:57:29 PM

being in the telecom/ISP business for the past 30 years

nothing changes as quickly as salesman and consulting engineering firms want it to

we all wish everyone in America had a fiber optic internet connection 10 years ago, but it'll be more than ten years from now before everyone has fiber

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 05:12:02 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 04:57:29 PM

being in the telecom/ISP business for the past 30 years

nothing changes as quickly as salesman and consulting engineering firms want it to

we all wish everyone in America had a fiber optic internet connection 10 years ago, but it'll be more than ten years from now before everyone has fiber

They were supposed to have fiber to my house a decade ago.  Still not here, and this is in Austin metro which is more advanced than a lot of other cities.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 05:41:14 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 05:12:02 PM

They were supposed to have fiber to my house a decade ago. Still not here, and this is in Austin metro which is more advanced than a lot of other cities.

I have two choices for internet. Overpriced fast cable internet [not fiber] through Cox, or 3 Mbps DSL through AT&T. That's not a typo. 3 Mbps. 

So because there is not legitimate competition for Cox, I overpay for their service. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 05:45:44 PM

AT&T got their fiber within a mile or so, a decade ago, and didn't put any more into it.

Google got their fiber within one block of me, about 4 years ago, and then stopped.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 07:07:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 01:09:42 PM

I think by 2035 the market will have already gone to mostly EVs anyway for new vehicles, especially in urban/suburban areas.

"Mostly" means 51% I think.  Trucks may be later, but the torque from electric is a plus.

Fifteen years is a decent period of time.  More EVs were sold in the US last year than cars with manual transmissions.  Norway is over 50% now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 08:02:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 07:07:23 PM

"Mostly" means 51% I think.  Trucks may be later, but the torque from electric is a plus.

Fifteen years is a decent period of time.  More EVs were sold in the US last year than cars with manual transmissions.  Norway is over 50% now.

I guess it's a personal thing.  I don't equate "mostly" to "a simple majority."  To me, mostly implies something like 75% or more.

And I completely agree the torque will be a plus, but the battery capacity-- the power storage-- is going to be an incredibly huge detriment, and it's one that despite all of our technological advances in recent decades, we don't have a line of sight to a realistic, affordable solution.  Pure EVs aren't going to be good for long haul towing applications for a very, very long time-- barring some massive and astronomically expensive upgrade to the road system that could somehow include in-road electromagnetic charging for EVs, I suppose.  Which is also a pie in the sky kind of unicorn to chase.

Which is why I've commented many times, I have no idea why we don't already see a decent selection of viable hybrid options in the fleet/long haul sector.  I guess it, too, doesn't make financial sense, but I'm not sure why.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on September 24, 2020, 09:58:15 PM

The unfortunate 'climate anomaly' of the First World War revealed
Craig Simpson
The Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/)Wed, September 23, 2020, 10:25 AM CDT
 (https://www.facebook.com/dialog/feed?app_id=458584288257241&link=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.yahoo.com%2Funfortunate-climate-anomaly-first-world-152549739.html%3Fsoc_src%3Dsocial-sh%26soc_trk%3Dfb%26tsrc%3Dfb) (https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=The unfortunate 'climate anomaly' of the First World War)
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/.EdrqPJZ0r7CmsC__k19pw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNTtoPTQ0MC42MjU-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/Q8PS_9JkIchpjACoHFfX0w--~B/aD01MDA7dz04MDA7c209MTthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://media.zenfs.com/en-GB/the_telegraph_818/8b79cf9abce7ec1debe29a3f8cff224b)

The desolation of places like Passchendaele has become part of the imagery of the First World War - News Scan/Getty/News Scan/Getty

The First World War was made more bloody by a "once-in-a-century" climate crisis which rained death on Europe, a study has found.
Many of the 700,000 British lives lost in the conflict ended in the “liquid grave” of mud-choked battlefields, and the desolation of places like Passchendaele (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/29/passchendaele-mud-soldier-slowly-dissolves-mark-centenary-battle/) have become part of the imagery of the First World War (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/the-first-world-war-a-complete-timeline/).
Even on the Turkish coast at Gallipoli (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/film/filmreviews/11521723/Gallipoli-film-review-heartbreaking.html) troops were immobilised and killed by appalling weather, drowning in their trenches and succumbing to exposure and pneumonia, as well as enemy bullets.
Using laser technology to examine glacial ice, Harvard and Climate Change Institute (CCI) analysts have discovered that Tommies (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2018/11/05/wwi-last-tommies-review-pain-generation-struck-deepest-chord/) fighting the world’s first global conflict also endured a freakish “climate anomaly” which "substantially" increased casualties.
The relentless rain which flooded battlefields like the Somme and inflicted famine on civilians was swept over from the Atlantic in rare periods of extreme precipitation caused by changes in the circulation of atmospheric air.
With peaks in rain, the Harvard-led study found, came peaks in deaths in bloody campaigns and the Spanish Flu pandemic (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-helped-shape-coronavirus-action-plan/) which followed.
A new research paper states this anomalous weather coincided with battles where: “The mud and water‐filled trenches and bomb craters swallowed everything, from tanks, to horses and troops, becoming what eyewitnesses described as the ‘liquid grave’ of the armies.”
Prof Alexander F More, who led the research for Harvard, explained: “Atmospheric circulation changed and there was much more rain, much colder weather all over Europe for six years.”

(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/c2CRPXkVlu4DbAgiRhxiJw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNQ--/https://media.zenfs.com/en-GB/the_telegraph_818/8c5fbcd5b1cadc5bb7b89b651cfedd40)

Passers-by look at the 'Mud Soldier' statue, which is sculpted from sand and mud from Passchendaele, during the unveiling ceremony on the North Terrace of Trafalgar Square in central London on July 25, 2017, the centenary of the Battle of Passchendaele. 'The Mud Soldier' will slowly dissolve over the course of four days, a representation of the rain and mud so closely associated with the battle 100 years ago. - DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP/Getty Images

More
“It was a once in a 100-year anomaly.”
This anomaly wreaked havoc on battlefields beginning with the First Battle of Champagne in 1914 , where British, French, and German troops suffered flooded trenches and frostbite while mud “slowed down the movement of troops and artillery”.
The Somme and Verdun in 1916, and the Third Battle of Ypres-Passchendaele in 1917, were slogged out in quagmires caused by the freak downpours which increased casualties.
Royal Artillery signaller John Palmer described his trauma at seeing men “sinking into the slime, dying in the slime” on the Western Front.
Even the Anzac troops (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/anzac-day/) in the usually Mediterranean climate of Gallipoli suffered floods, snowfall and frostbite as the “significant climate anomaly”, which brought cold and wet marine air from the North Atlantic in the “highest concentrations in a century”.
These high concentrations brought by an Icelandic low pressure system were pinpointed by analysis of glacial ice cores taken from the Alps which present a frozen record of climatic conditions during the conflict.
As well as causing problems for warring armies, researchers have argued  this unusual six-year weather pattern caused famine and the 1916-17 “Turnip Winter”, in which the German population depended on root vegetables amid a failed harvest.

(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/B75FE4x0JtMn89YCW.Y3Hg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNQ--/https://media.zenfs.com/en-GB/the_telegraph_818/c1ff712742343f547887dc8d7fcc3317)

A team of stretcher bearers struggle through deep mud to carry a wounded man to safety near Boesinghe on 1 August 1917 during the Third Battle of Ypres / Battle of Pilckem Ridge, 1 August 1917 (First World War / WWI) Photo: John Warwick Brooke Source: http://media.iwm.org.uk/iwm/mediaLib//358/media-358346/large.jpg This is photograph Q 5935 from the collections of the Imperial War Museums. - John Warwick Brooke/John Warwick Brooke

More
Research by the universities of Harvard, Maine, and Nottingham has also found that the once-in-a-century weather may have impacted the migration of mallards, keeping ducks infected with Spanish Flu concentrated in Europe.
“It is likely that they stayed put for much of that period,” said Prof More.
This lingering infected bird population was added to:  “Abnormally high precipitation and cold temperatures in the years preceding the onset of the pandemic, in 1917, and during its deadliest wave in 1918.”
Researchers have argued that the climate events that made the war more deadly also increased mortality in the Spanish Flu pandemic, which killed up to 100 million people worldwide.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 08:37:32 AM

Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 08:02:52 PM

Which is why I've commented many times, I have no idea why we don't already see a decent selection of viable hybrid options in the fleet/long haul sector.  I guess it, too, doesn't make financial sense, but I'm not sure why.

My kid in Texas is in the trucking business and tells me it's coming, but the industry is not receptive to newness.  Reliability and simplicity are valued.

And of course weight of batteries means less weight of freight.  I don't know where the optimum would be there.  A Diesel hybrid would seem to make sense, but does that mean batteries only enough for one mile to recoup regen braking or 10 miles or 50?  Dunno.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 10:14:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 08:37:32 AM

My kid in Texas is in the trucking business and tells me it's coming, but the industry is not receptive to newness.  Reliability and simplicity are valued.

And of course weight of batteries means less weight of freight.  I don't know where the optimum would be there.  A Diesel hybrid would seem to make sense, but does that mean batteries only enough for one mile to recoup regen braking or 10 miles or 50?  Dunno.

Yeah, that totally makes sense.  I suspect the same is true for the private sector, the majority of people that buy trucks for towing, don't trust the newness and reliability of the hybrid solution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 12:28:16 PM

The nice thing about a hybrid is that it can recoup much of the losses you otherwise have during braking.  I have wondered why cars still have alternators.  You could put regen braking on the fronts only and provide plenty of current for systems.  That would be akin to a "mild hybrid".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 12:47:49 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 12:28:16 PM

The nice thing about a hybrid is that it can recoup much of the losses you otherwise have during braking.  I have wondered why cars still have alternators.  You could put regen braking on the fronts only and provide plenty of current for systems.  That would be akin to a "mild hybrid".

Interesting idea. My immediate first thought is "maybe regen braking is more expensive than an alternator?"

But I did a little googling, and it looks like one reason they still have alternators is that there are still times when regen braking can't generate enough power. Say, for example, a long freeway drive on a deserted road where you're just sitting there on cruise for an extended time. So perhaps you simply can't remove it and still have enough power generation for all use cases. 

But it looks like automakers are doing a lot of things to make the alternator passive for as much time as they can. An older article about BMW (https://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/09/bmw_introduces_.html) suggests that they try to put the alternator into passive mode during acceleration when it would rob power from the engine, and have it go active during overrun or braking when the engine is still running but not being used to drive the wheels. By doing that they maintain power while improving fuel efficiency. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 12:54:00 PM

If you cruise for a while, the car can simply apply the regen brakes slightly for a period to recharge the battery suitably, just as an alternator would do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 01:00:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 12:54:00 PM

If you cruise for a while, the car can simply apply the regen brakes slightly for a period to recharge the battery suitably, just as an alternator would do.

True. What if you're idling and listening to some tunes while running the AC hard in the summer while you wait to pick someone up? A car that tells you that you have to drive or shut off isn't a good user experience either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 01:06:39 PM

That would be a problem.  I think this vehicle would have at least two batteries for this to work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 03:41:19 PM

I am musing a bit about automobile technology over 20 year periods.  Obviously today we have some EVs which did not exist in 2000 (save the abortive GM attempt).  But if we take a "regular car", say a Honda Accord, today it is more efficient than in 2000, but the car is more or less similar.  They went away from the V6 to a set of Turbo fours.

In 1980, cars were pretty bad overall, many still had carburetors.  They were underpowered in general and got poor fuel economy.

In 1960, most cars were behemoths in size, we didn't have compacts generally speaking.  A standard car would be a Chevy Impala with a 283 cid V-8 and 2 bbl carb and two speed transmission.  It would get maybe 13 mpg highway.  Nobody cared.  No seat belts.  Bias ply tires and drum brakes.

In 1940, things were changing, but cars had standard transmissions, mostly 4 and 6 cylinder engines, manual chokes, foot mounted starter, no AC of course, no radio, no power anything.  Some may have had magnetos, not sure.

And cars pre-1985 or so needed pretty routine maintenance.  I think a big change was fuel injection, better fuel delivery, oil lasts longer, less buildup on sparkers and cylinders, etc.  I think electronic ignition came along 1972-1975 for most.  I used to spend a fair bit of time under the hood of a car.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 04:04:34 PM

We just got our electric bill and the wife was chafing a bit... Living in a ~45 year old poorly insulated house with drafty single-pane windows doesn't make the A/C very wallet-friendly during these summer months. 

I pointed out that both Castle Rock CO and Austin TX have electricity per-kwh rates less than half what we're paying...

Still working it so I can be utee's neighbor. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 04:10:40 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on September 25, 2020, 04:04:34 PM

We just got our electric bill and the wife was chafing a bit... Living in a ~45 year old poorly insulated house with drafty single-pane windows doesn't make the A/C very wallet-friendly during these summer months.

I pointed out that both Castle Rock CO and Austin TX have electricity per-kwh rates less than half what we're paying...

Still working it so I can be utee's neighbor.

You, I'd welcome.  These other schlubs, though... :)


Have you figured up anything general on how much more electricity you'd be using in the summer months?  If we're half your KWH rate then you'd probably still come out ahead, but it'd be worth calculating first.

CO on the other hand... yeah.  Probably not much need for A/C in the summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 04:19:30 PM

I toted up my electrics bills since we've moved here.  They averaged $120 a month in 2019 and $110 in 2020.  I had to replace a heat pump in April (bummer).  If I'm saving $10 a month, well, payback is a B.

We have a lot of glass but only two sides are exposed and I think these water heat pumps are pretty efficient.  We had gas heat in Cincy and it got pricey.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 04:20:23 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 04:10:40 PM

You, I'd welcome.  These other schlubs, though... :)


Have you figured up anything general on how much more electricity you'd be using in the summer months?  If we're half your KWH rate then you'd probably still come out ahead, but it'd be worth calculating first.

CO on the other hand... yeah.  Probably not much need for A/C in the summer.

I would assume that I'd be buying a house that is a lot more energy-efficient than what I live in now. 

That would be balanced by the fact that the square footage would go WAY up, and with the weather I'd be running the A/C more than I do now. 

Here I used to try to suffer through the summer without running it much at all. But that's gone up this year due to the puppy (who I don't want to suffer through 90 degree temps in the house) and due to WFH... I can't just escape to the office for free A/C during the hottest portion of the day. 

But I think I'd come out ahead. 

What's your typical monthly bill in the summer? The last two for me were $258 and now $217? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 04:21:21 PM

I put R50 insulation in my attic in Ohio and it really helped with the cooling bill a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 04:32:34 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on September 25, 2020, 04:20:23 PM

I would assume that I'd be buying a house that is a lot more energy-efficient than what I live in now.

That would be balanced by the fact that the square footage would go WAY up, and with the weather I'd be running the A/C more than I do now.

Here I used to try to suffer through the summer without running it much at all. But that's gone up this year due to the puppy (who I don't want to suffer through 90 degree temps in the house) and due to WFH... I can't just escape to the office for free A/C during the hottest portion of the day.

But I think I'd come out ahead.

What's your typical monthly bill in the summer? The last two for me were $258 and now $217?

Yeah mine are in the mid 300s in the summer.  That's for a 4,000 sqft house, 12 years old and a good quality build so energy efficiency is good. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 04:46:38 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 04:32:34 PM

Yeah mine are in the mid 300s in the summer.  That's for a 4,000 sqft house, 12 years old and a good quality build so energy efficiency is good.

Yeah, I live in 1200 sf.

You have a pool too, right? I know that adds some energy usage. 

I'm guessing that if I bought there I could get into 3000+ sf in a newer more efficient build and the mortgage+taxes+insurance would be less expensive than my rent. 

And if I wasn't paying any state income taxes, and slightly lower sales tax, I think I could survive $300 electric bills in the summer. It'd be more than worth it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 04:52:45 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on September 25, 2020, 04:46:38 PM

Yeah, I live in 1200 sf.

You have a pool too, right? I know that adds some energy usage.

I'm guessing that if I bought there I could get into 3000+ sf in a newer more efficient build and the mortgage+taxes+insurance would be less expensive than my rent.

And if I wasn't paying any state income taxes, and slightly lower sales tax, I think I could survive $300 electric bills in the summer. It'd be more than worth it. 

Yup we have a pool, it runs regardless of season and my cheapest electric is maybe $100 in the winter?  So just total guessing, the pool is maybe $20-$30/month?  That's not insignificant for sure.

And definitely no state income tax here.  Sales tax in Austin metro is 8.25% and property taxes are pretty high, but propertly values are low relative to where you're coming from, so might be a net positive in favor of Texico.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 05:05:49 PM

The pool solar cost me $4K (including the salt conversion) and it will pay off in 2 years with the energy saved. It's about $50/week to heat a pool here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 05:40:36 PM

I heat the pool every now and then through the winter. We heat the spa every weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 26, 2020, 10:18:01 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 05:05:49 PM

The pool solar cost me $4K (including the salt conversion) and it will pay off in 2 years with the energy saved. It's about $50/week to heat a pool here.

Friend of mine installed one(pretty sure he did it) in Sarasota.He just left this morning for 3 weeks to work on the Family digs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 28, 2020, 05:54:40 PM

Now Napa is on fire. 

Luckily one of our favorites (Rombauer) was threatened but apparently is doing okay now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2020, 10:24:01 PM

grape vines burn brightly?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 30, 2020, 12:55:38 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/120371373_172269754517429_3273382446255443582_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=drobCR-oy7cAX__hNja&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=c871a8ef16dadba256fb2653e405e509&oe=5F98F32C)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 09:20:50 AM

Perfect weather here all week, fairly typical of early October.

We went out to dinner last night to a place we'd only been once before.  They had an interesting patio where we sat, it was pretty decent, nice patio.  The tables were better separated than this.  It was reasonably crowded outside.

(https://i.imgur.com/0uStLQ8.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 10:32:56 AM

first frost warning of the fall here tonight - expected overnight low of 34

perfect weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 10:47:34 AM

The New York Times reports:

“Construction of a reactor, called Sparc, which is being developed by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a spinoff company, Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is expected to begin next spring and take three or four years, the researchers and company officials said.”
Granted, that’s just construction. Next comes phases of testing and then, if the reactor reaches productive fusion, a long process of designing and building a power plant. But within fusion research, a timeline that claims commercial fusion power within a decade immediately jumps to the very front of the line—so much so that it naturally causes skepticism.


https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a34224299/nuclear-fusion-compact-reactor-sparc-timeline/ (https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a34224299/nuclear-fusion-compact-reactor-sparc-timeline/)

A traditional tokamak like ITER uses a gigantic magnetic field to contain the extraordinarily hot plasma. Sparc, meanwhile, uses a “a newer electromagnet technology that uses so-called high temperature superconductors that can produce a much higher magnetic field,” the Times reports.

That means a smaller amount of plasma, a smaller entire reactor form factor, and perhaps fewer problems with containing and sustaining plasma, which have thwarted existing plasma fusion projects.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 12:25:24 PM

I don't think we get frost warnings here.

Low of 72 tonight.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 01, 2020, 12:26:40 PM

Annoyed. I thought we were over the heat, but we're looking at about our third 100F day in a row, with the temp not dropping quickly enough at night to turn off the AC and open the windows.

This heat needs to break.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 12:32:46 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 01, 2020, 12:26:40 PM

Annoyed. I thought we were over the heat, but we're looking at about our third 100F day in a row, with the temp not dropping quickly enough at night to turn off the AC and open the windows.

This heat needs to break.

Yeah. My sister in law has left her house in Bel Air and is spending all of her time in her beach house in Laguna.

Poor thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 12:35:44 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 12:25:24 PM

I don't think we get frost warnings here.

Low of 72 tonight.

if you do, buy up orange juice in bulk before the prices spike

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 12:43:58 PM

I'm buying pork bellies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 12:44:56 PM

got your pellet smoker seasoned?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 01:15:35 PM

I don't like belly smoked. I don't have a smoker anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:17:54 PM

folks in Texas tell me that EVERYTHING is better smoked

even Queso 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 02:31:57 PM

Never tried smoked queso.

I've had smoked gouda and smoked provolone, but never smoked chile con queso.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:39:28 PM

I had some here in Iowa

tasty 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 01, 2020, 03:11:10 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 02:31:57 PM

I've had smoked gouda and smoked provolone,

cindy makes this dish Quinoa & Asparagus with smoked gouda grated over it 👍

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 03:22:31 PM

you can find smoked cheese in your area?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 01, 2020, 03:34:12 PM

Hellz ya Imagine you can to but smoked gouda is some tasty goodness.Surrounding counties have plenty of Amish,Farmers cheese,Brick,Swiss,Cheddars.Trying to watch it though,Soft pretzels,smoked gouda and Stadium Mustard,oh man - with a Marzen,Stoudt will do if you don't have that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 03:46:18 PM

https://willys.com/ (https://willys.com/)

This place is a block away and we had not tried it before today for lunch.  I'm not expect, but it was quite good, and all the folks working were Hispanics.  Much better than Chiputle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 04:05:51 PM

I didn't see smoked cheese or queso on the list of ingredients for Willy's

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 04:11:21 PM

Yeah, probably not there, but I had a Willy Philly burito, a kind of Mexican take on a Philly cheesesteak.  I liked it.

Better than anything I ate in Austin, where I was fortunate to get home with both kidneys attached.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 04:28:55 PM

Willy Philly just rolls off the tongue

I'd hafta try one

I'm a Cheese Steak lover, but never been to Philly

Was a 6er fan back in the days of George McGinnis, Julius Erving and Caldwell Jones

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 05:18:42 PM

There's a pizza place here in town that makes a cheesesteak stromboli.  It's the bees knees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 01, 2020, 05:23:54 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 04:28:55 PM

Was a 6er fan back in the days of George McGinnis, Julius Erving and Caldwell Jones

Darryl Dawkins,World B Free,Doug Collins - great player and bad coach

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 05:33:35 PM

Chocolate thunder!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 05:41:56 PM

I've always liked the Philly cheesesteak things.  I've even tried the grocery store varieties with minimal success.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 01, 2020, 05:45:03 PM

A Philly Cheesesteak falls into the category of "even if it's bad, it's usually still good". I mean, it's basic. Thin sliced steak, cheese, onions/peppers and maybe mushroom, on a roll. Your average short-order cook on his first day can cook it. You have to really try to make it terrible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 06:15:11 AM

74 degrees right now. I really like it here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 08:38:23 AM

30 degrees here

feels, fresh

no wind, so it's all good

I really don't mind a light jacket.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 08:57:06 AM

I enjoy having four seasons, I just don't want Cincy seasons (winter).  I remember spending most of Jan-Feb-Mar huddled inside barely going out for anything.

We might have 2-3 days in winter, aside from rain, where it is unpleasant to be outside for an hour or more.  Maybe.  But it gets cold of course.  The worst is those few days where it is 35°F and raining.  And the summers here to me are more tolerable than they were in Cincy as well, less humidity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 02, 2020, 10:06:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 08:57:06 AM

I enjoy having four seasons, I just don't want Cincy seasons (winter).  I remember spending most of Jan-Feb-Mar huddled inside barely going out for anything.

We might have 2-3 days in winter, aside from rain, where it is unpleasant to be outside for an hour or more.  Maybe.  But it gets cold of course.  The worst is those few days where it is 35°F and raining.  And the summers here to me are more tolerable than they were in Cincy as well, less humidity.

The worst in Atlanta is the ice storms. Not because the weather itself is particularly bad, but because of the havoc they can cause. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2020, 10:15:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 04:11:21 PM

Yeah, probably not there, but I had a Willy Philly burito, a kind of Mexican take on a Philly cheesesteak.  I liked it.

Better than anything I ate in Austin, where I was fortunate to get home with both kidneys attached.

I had a Navajo Taco version of the Philly Cheesesteak a few times over the summer. To say that I was apprehensive going in would be an understatement. A Navajo Taco is a little strange to begin with. Then on top of that, what in the Hell would the Navajo know about East Coast delicacies? But I tell ya, this was a match made in culinary Heaven. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2020, 10:22:48 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 01, 2020, 05:45:03 PM

A Philly Cheesesteak falls into the category of "even if it's bad, it's usually still good". I mean, it's basic. Thin sliced steak, cheese, onions/peppers and maybe mushroom, on a roll. Your average short-order cook on his first day can cook it. You have to really try to make it terrible.

The "authentic" Philly (as in the way that they sell it in Philadelphia) is actually kind of gross, because they use a heavy helping of Cheez Whiz. 

The midwestern take on the Philly, where they substitute provolone for the Cheez Whiz, is far superior imo.



(https://brocouncil.com/images/stories/Articles/2015/cheesesteaks-philly-provolone-or-cheez-whiz.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 10:24:28 AM

(https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-547992d53f346601894dd66580dfb785)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2020, 10:29:45 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 10:24:28 AM

(https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-547992d53f346601894dd66580dfb785)

Or Weird Al's patented Twinkie Wiener Sandwich?

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BrilliantEvilHermitcrab-max-1mb.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 02, 2020, 10:30:39 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 06:15:11 AM

74 degrees right now. I really like it here.

66 here.   A little too cold, but it'll warm up to 82 or so, which is about perfect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 12:41:50 PM

We're just back from a 3+ mile walk, the weather is perfect hear.  I wore a light jacket, but it's warm enough now not to need one.  I love this time of year.

If only we had football.

Oh, wait.

If only we had a quarterback.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 12:58:58 PM

I have to admit, since I like this Bo Nix guy

I went auburn +6.5

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 01:11:06 PM

I would lean to taking Auburn and the points myself, but I'm a pessimist.  Shirley they can't play as badly as they did in the 1st half last week.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 02:20:12 PM

(https://slm-assets.secondlife.com/assets/20256577/view_large/Don't_call_me_shirley.jpg?1523191353)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2020, 10:55:56 AM

After analyzing the most recent data from two of America’s largest electricity markets — ERCOT in Texas and PJM in the Northeast — the Rocky Mountain Institute has come to a startling conclusion. Renewables are muscling in on natural gas as the preferred choice for new electricity generation. In fact, according to RMI, what happened to coal is now happening to gas. What is needed, the organization argues, is a move away from the monopoly markets that have been the norm in the utility industry for more than 100 years and toward more open competition. Because when renewables compete head to head with thermal generation, they win hands down 95% of the time.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/03/rocky-mountain-institute-study-shows-renewables-are-kicking-natural-gas-to-the-curb/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/03/rocky-mountain-institute-study-shows-renewables-are-kicking-natural-gas-to-the-curb/)

RMI finds that since 2018, the queue for clean energy projects has more than doubled while the queue for gas projects has been cut in half. In all, more than $30 billion worth of gas projects have been canceled or abandoned. Currently, the capacity of wind, solar, and storage projects slated for construction in ERCOT and PJM is ten times greater than for new gas projects.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2020, 11:02:28 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 05, 2020, 10:55:56 AM

After analyzing the most recent data from two of America’s largest electricity markets — ERCOT in Texas and PJM in the Northeast — the Rocky Mountain Institute has come to a startling conclusion. Renewables are muscling in on natural gas as the preferred choice for new electricity generation. In fact, according to RMI, what happened to coal is now happening to gas. What is needed, the organization argues, is a move away from the monopoly markets that have been the norm in the utility industry for more than 100 years and toward more open competition. Because when renewables compete head to head with thermal generation, they win hands down 95% of the time.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/03/rocky-mountain-institute-study-shows-renewables-are-kicking-natural-gas-to-the-curb/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/03/rocky-mountain-institute-study-shows-renewables-are-kicking-natural-gas-to-the-curb/)

RMI finds that since 2018, the queue for clean energy projects has more than doubled while the queue for gas projects has been cut in half. In all, more than $30 billion worth of gas projects have been canceled or abandoned. Currently, the capacity of wind, solar, and storage projects slated for construction in ERCOT and PJM is ten times greater than for new gas projects.

Good news. If they're winning the economic competition, we might have more of a chance. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 12:56:23 PM

The issue is renewables is coming from a low percentage, under 10% not counting hydro.  Natural gas is at a high percentage.  New NG plants may be not happening very fast, but that doesn't mean renewables is putting a real dent in NG usage.

(https://i.imgur.com/tiVWntz.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2020, 12:57:53 PM

perhaps not, but this implies that the dent will be growing larger in the future

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 12:59:36 PM

Yeah, over time, we should see more renewables, no doubt, but will the shift be fast enough and complete enough to matter?

We'll also have growing demand with more EVs coming into the auto field.

If someone had a goal to be "mostly" non-carbon by 2050, I would think they have a  chance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2020, 01:14:17 PM

I don't know about fast enough or complete enough

I'm not sure anyone has the perfect answer to those questions.  Heck if the entire world went to zero carbon emissions tomorrow, would it be enough?

I just see it as good news

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 01:21:34 PM

If you have cancer and they say you have a year to live, and then tell you you have 375 days to live, it may be good news, but it really isn't much.

The climate MODELS try and predict what will happen if so many gigatons of CO2 are emitted over time, and the picture painted is pretty dire.  And if we magically hit zero carbon TODAY, it would be pretty bad.  At best the planet may limit carbon emissions to about where it is today, maybe.  That simply is not nearly enough, IF the models are correct, or close.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2020, 02:34:24 PM

We could simply move to another planet............

________________________________________________

Earth is not necessarily the best planet in the universe. Researchers have identified two dozen planets outside our solar system that may have conditions more suitable for life than our own. Some of these orbit stars that may be better than even our sun.

A study led by Washington State University scientist Dirk Schulze-Makuch recently published in the journal Astrobiology details characteristics of potential “superhabitable” planets, that include those that are older, a little larger, slightly warmer and possibly wetter than Earth. Life could also more easily thrive on planets that circle more slowly changing stars with longer lifespans than our sun.


https://scitechdaily.com/some-planets-may-be-better-for-life-than-earth-researchers-identify-24-superhabitable-exoplanets/ (https://scitechdaily.com/some-planets-may-be-better-for-life-than-earth-researchers-identify-24-superhabitable-exoplanets/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 04:04:20 PM

Oh great, now not only will OAM complain bitterly about how the USA is the worst country, now he will also start complaining about how Earth is the worst planet.

Thanks for nothing, Fearless.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 05:40:43 PM

He just says the US is not the best country, not that it's the worst.  His posts obviously drip with derision, but it's his opinion.  I get the feeling he hasn't spent any or much time anywhere else with the people there.

In my experience, people are pretty much the same.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 05:41:25 PM

And if in fact renewables will replace fossil fuels on their own, and fast enough, great, we don't really need to worry about the topic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2020, 05:56:56 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 05:40:43 PM

He just says the US is not the best country, not that it's the worst.  His posts obviously drip with derision, but it's his opinion.  I get the feeling he hasn't spent any or much time anywhere else with the people there.

It's more he says something that's entirely bombastic and leaves no room for nuance, and then when challenged retreats to "well you can't expect me to qualify my statements; you should know what I mean!" Like it's our fault for seeing what he says and assuming he means what he said.

Quote

In my experience, people are pretty much the same.

Agreed. Most people just want to live in safety, have economic opportunity, feel like they can raise a family and offer a future to their children. If a country can't offer that, the country has issues. But the people aren't the issue; their leaders are. The people are the same everywhere.

We can argue that America is or isn't the best country in the world. I don't think we can argue that Americans are any better or worse than anyone else in this world.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 06:26:11 PM

You all are missing the point, though.

Now we know, that Earth isn't even the best planet.  Probably a few dozen better places to live and raise that family.  Just gotta wait for Captain Kirk or Han Solo to transport us there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2020, 06:28:00 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 06:26:11 PM

You all are missing the point, though.

Now we know, that Earth isn't even the best planet.  Probably a few dozen better places to live and raise that family.  Just gotta wait for Captain Kirk or Han Solo to transport us there.

Yeah, but it's a moot point. We've discussed how reticent countries in Europe or the Australia/New Zealand folks are to allow Americans to immigrate. You think those planets are going to take in Earthlings? What do we have to offer?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 06:29:15 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 05, 2020, 06:28:00 PM

Yeah, but it's a moot point. We've discussed how reticent countries in Europe or the Australia/New Zealand folks are to allow Americans to immigrate. You think those planets are going to take in Earthlings? What do we have to offer?

Exactly.  Because America is the worst country, on the worst planet, in the galaxy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2020, 06:29:28 PM

Elon Musk will do it for a price

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2020, 06:30:48 PM

Then again... Maybe they'll take us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE3OuHukrmQ

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 06:37:25 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 05, 2020, 05:56:56 PM

We can argue that America is or isn't the best country in the world. I don't think we can argue that Americans are any better or worse than anyone else in this world.

When you visit another country, by and large you are experiencing the best of that country, the best most polite people and places etc.  It's not until you get en famile that you start to get a glimpse of other countries, I think, and that experience is rare.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 05, 2020, 06:39:54 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 04:04:20 PM

Oh great, now not only will OAM complain bitterly about how the USA is the worst country, now he will also start complaining about how Earth is the worst planet.

He would know Mr Scott has beamed him up a few times

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 05, 2020, 06:41:33 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 06:29:15 PM

Exactly.  Because America is the worst country, on the worst planet, in the galaxy.

Could be worse like also rooting for the Horns......or Browns.....or Indians

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2020, 06:49:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 06:37:25 PM

When you visit another country, by and large you are experiencing the best of that country, the best most polite people and places etc.  It's not until you get en famile that you start to get a glimpse of other countries, I think, and that experience is rare.

That's why I loved Anthony Bourdain's show(s)... He showed real people. He let them tell their stories. 

No matter where it was, even in some of the places one might describe as sh!thole countries, you saw people who cared about their family; about their community; about their future. They were certainly not without warts. But they were no different than anywhere else. 

That which makes us similar is FAR more salient than the political/national/religious/ideological differences that divide us... But that's never stopped us from elevating all those differences over our similarities in the past--to the point of hatred and violence. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 06:57:08 PM

That is why traveling tends to engender peaceful relations.  One begins to focus on sameness and not differences.

They are basically the same.

Of course, the heads of state of three waring powers in 1914 were first cousins, so there is that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2020, 06:59:31 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 06:57:08 PM

Of course, the heads of state of three waring powers in 1914 were first cousins, so there is that.

My SIL is finally trying to address the estrangement that has stopped me from having a relationship with my brother for the past 3+ years, despite that they have lived ~20 miles from me for about the last 2 1/2. So yeah, family drama probably doesn't help in those situations. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 07:01:49 PM

I think every family has issues at times.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 05, 2020, 07:21:05 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 05, 2020, 06:59:31 PM

My SIL is finally trying to address the estrangement that has stopped me from having a relationship with my brother for the past 3+ years, despite that they have lived ~20 miles from me for about the last 2 1/2. So yeah, family drama probably doesn't help in those situations.

Aw yes. 

Your brother gave you an atomic wedgie at a family function. Now his wife has convinced him to allow you to administer a swirlie as retribution. But you are unwilling to settle for anything less than the dreaded rear admiral. 

Seen it a million times. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2020, 12:18:38 AM

Still giving wedgies? might be a tad bit avant garde,not that there's anything wrong with that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2020, 12:26:17 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 05, 2020, 06:28:00 PM

Yeah, but it's a moot point. We've discussed how reticent countries in Europe or the Australia/New Zealand folks are to allow Americans to immigrate. You think those planets are going to take in Earthlings? What do we have to offer?

Ya know I've thought about that,and right/wrong they may have a point.But they weren't to hesitant in 1914 or '41 to look us up.So let them cheer if we commit suicide,they have to ask themselves who'll be standing in Russia/China's way should they get surley?They can bullshit themselves if they they think Putin or the CCP have their best intentions in mind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 08:03:14 AM

China is playing the long game, and winning.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 08:13:43 AM

They are very patient.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 06, 2020, 09:04:38 AM

Their Leadership thinks generationally, dynastically-- while the rest of us scurry around like ants at a picnic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2020, 09:07:06 AM

well, if that's the case, why are they pumping more CO2 into the air and more garbage into the ocean than any other leadership?

the world won't be a suitable place to live by the time they own it.

dumbarses

asshats!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 09:16:12 AM

Good question.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 09:17:48 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 06, 2020, 09:07:06 AM

well, if that's the case, why are they pumping more CO2 into the air and more garbage into the ocean than any other leadership?

It gives them an economic advantage obviously.  They claim the "West" had this advantage for a century or more so they need it now to compensate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2020, 09:29:42 AM

not a great long game strategy

but, perhaps they are climate change deniers 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 09:44:05 AM

I think they figure the environmental damage won't be all that bad, and if it is, it won't hurt them as much as it will more developed societies.

I don't think this is a "Chinese hoax", but it is in their interest to push the concept obviously, whatever they actually believe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2020, 10:07:12 AM

well, they don't seem to have the same respect for human life or empathy for individuals, certainly not for Europeans or Americans

probably don't care too much at all if the sea level raises 20 feet - find higher ground

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 10:59:17 AM

That's my point, China is playing the Long Game for China, not for the Chinese, or vulnerable populations.  They are disposable.  I think they focus on being the dominant country in the world by 2050 or so.  If climate change and pollution happens as a result, well, so be it.  This really is a war by other means.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 06, 2020, 11:10:15 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 10:59:17 AM

That's my point, China is playing the Long Game for China, not for the Chinese, or vulnerable populations.  They are disposable.  I think they focus on being the dominant country in the world by 2050 or so.  If climate change and pollution happens as a result, well, so be it.  This really is a war by other means.

I do think they're going to run into a problem, though... Once you get a sizable portion of the population farther up Maslow's hierarchy of needs, and stably into a middle class, they start getting all these crazy notions about having the political right of self-determination. 

Chinese "communism" is basically managed capitalism at this point. People want civil liberties. The CCP can only keep a lid on that for so long. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 11:15:34 AM

Maybe, the key may be whether folks feel their quality of life is improving over time.  Folks will put up with a lot of loss of freedom if their lot is getting better.

"Well, I'd like to protest, but on the other hand, I'm making more money now and we just moved to a nicer place."

It's the economy, stupid.

I don't think generally humans are nearly as motivated by "rights" as they are money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 06, 2020, 11:30:25 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 06, 2020, 11:10:15 AM

I do think they're going to run into a problem, though... Once you get a sizable portion of the population farther up Maslow's hierarchy of needs, and stably into a middle class, they start getting all these crazy notions about having the political right of self-determination.

Chinese "communism" is basically managed capitalism at this point. People want civil liberties. The CCP can only keep a lid on that for so long.

I'd agree if the Chinese government and Leadership cared about the civilians, but they don't.  They're disposable.  Any uprising will be quelled emphatically, with zero regard for collateral damage.  Collateral damage isn't even a concept they recognize, because they view individual human lives as completely irrelevant.

Back in 1985, Sting opined, "I hope the Russians love their children too."  And the Cold War ended a few years later, because for the most part, they do.

China does not. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 06, 2020, 12:16:01 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 11:15:34 AM

Maybe, the key may be whether folks feel their quality of life is improving over time.  Folks will put up with a lot of loss of freedom if their lot is getting better.

"Well, I'd like to protest, but on the other hand, I'm making more money now and we just moved to a nicer place."

It's the economy, stupid.

I don't think generally humans are nearly as motivated by "rights" as they are money.

That is true, to an extent. Singapore is an excellent example of that. They don't necessarily have a lot of political/civil rights, but they are a rich country with a very high level of trust in their gov't to not be corrupt. 

I'm not sure China can get there. Too large, too diverse. Too big of a known issue with their government not respecting human rights. 

Quote from: utee94 on October 06, 2020, 11:30:25 AM

I'd agree if the Chinese government and Leadership cared about the civilians, but they don't.  They're disposable.  Any uprising will be quelled emphatically, with zero regard for collateral damage.  Collateral damage isn't even a concept they recognize, because they view individual human lives as completely irrelevant.

Back in 1985, Sting opined, "I hope the Russians love their children too."  And the Cold War ended a few years later, because for the most part, they do.

China does not.

1.3B people have a way of making you care, if they actually come together to demand change...  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 12:19:17 PM

The problem with that is a heavily armed and well-trained military of 2.5 Million. That would easily suppress 1.3 Billion people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2020, 12:48:12 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 08:13:43 AM

They are very patient.

Like barricading people in their homes needing health care

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 06, 2020, 01:01:58 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 12:19:17 PM

The problem with that is a heavily armed and well-trained military of 2.5 Million. That would easily suppress 1.3 Billion people.

If they need widespread suppression, those 2.5M might balk at the task. 

It's one thing when they're suppressing an "other" group, like protestors in Hong Kong where they can paint them as "foreign" rather than "like us", or the Uighurs where they can rely on racism to paint them as the "other", or the Nepalese where again they're "foreign". 

It gets harder and harder when you have widespread social movements of their own relatives... Harder to paint them as the "other" and to get the soldiers to carry out the orders. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 06, 2020, 01:28:35 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 06, 2020, 01:01:58 PM

If they need widespread suppression, those 2.5M might balk at the task.

It's one thing when they're suppressing an "other" group, like protestors in Hong Kong where they can paint them as "foreign" rather than "like us", or the Uighurs where they can rely on racism to paint them as the "other", or the Nepalese where again they're "foreign".

It gets harder and harder when you have widespread social movements of their own relatives... Harder to paint them as the "other" and to get the soldiers to carry out the orders.

Not so sure, how'd that all work out in Tiananmen Square?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 06, 2020, 01:37:48 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 06, 2020, 01:28:35 PM

Not so sure, how'd that all work out in Tiananmen Square?

Think it'll be that easy 30 years later, in a country where everyone carries a video camera in their pocket connected to the internet? 

I realize that their internet is tightly restricted, but the Chinese are one of the biggest worldwide users of VPNs to circumvent those controls. 


(https://i.imgur.com/HdnSyba.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 06, 2020, 01:43:48 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 06, 2020, 01:37:48 PM

Think it'll be that easy 30 years later, in a country where everyone carries a video camera in their pocket connected to the internet?

I realize that their internet is tightly restricted, but the Chinese are one of the biggest worldwide users of VPNs to circumvent those controls.


[img width=500 height=212.986]https://i.imgur.com/HdnSyba.png[/img]

The Chinese government completely shuts them down regularly, already, today.  Happens all the time.  And they don't even have a military reason to do so.

Give them a military reason to do so?  We'll see just how fast they can strip out those channels.  They literally control every pipe within the borders, centrally.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 01:52:50 PM

I don't trust that CCP when it comes to anything. They will pull out all the stops to suppress their people - including disappearing them. This is proven.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 07, 2020, 08:20:59 AM

I was going to hit like,847 but who likes that unfortunately it is a sad fact

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 07, 2020, 11:58:31 AM

At a point, a government turns into an over sized Mafia operation.  The Mafia doesn't want to kill off their clientel obviously, but if a few drop by the way no skin.

It's about power and influence even more than money (because they get plenty of that).  And if you are the government, it's not like you have any worries about jail time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 07, 2020, 12:27:13 PM

America's carbon dioxide emissions have fallen consistently over the last 15 years in large part because power companies have swapped coal for natural gas. Now it appears that those CO2 reductions might be smaller than previously thought.

A recent study by the Environmental Defense Fund found that 3.7% of natural gas produced in the Permian Basin leaked into the atmosphere. That's enough to erase the greenhouse gas benefits of quitting coal for gas in the near term.

"The first thing to say is the 3.7% number really jumps off the page," said Daniel Raimi, a researcher at Resources for the Future. "It is a really high emission rate. It is yet another indicator that the U.S. oil and gas system emits more than current EPA estimates would suggest."

The study by EDF is significant on several fronts. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, produces about half the emissions of coal when burned, but it's a much more powerful greenhouse gas when leaked into the atmosphere.

Scientists have long struggled to pinpoint just how much methane is being released into the atmosphere. A series of earlier studies coordinated by EDF and hundreds of other researchers indicated that the U.S. oil and gas system leaked on average 2.3% of all the gas it produced. That's about 60% more than the leakage rate reported by EPA, at 1.4%.

Until recently, the Permian Basin had been a missing piece of the methane puzzle. The basin, which extends from West Texas into southeastern New Mexico, is the beating heart of the American oil patch. The Permian now accounts for about 30% of U.S. oil production and 10% of the country's gas output.


https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063041299 (https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063041299)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 07, 2020, 01:55:33 PM

Anheuser-Busch announced Tuesday they will be producing their most sustainable beer can to date.

According to Danny Kerth a spokesman for Anheuser-Busch, the new beer can will be low-carbon aluminum made with renewable hydropower and recycled content.

To assist in the production of the new can, Anheuser-Busch is teaming up with Rio Tinto, a producer of responsible aluminum.

Kerth says the partnership with Rio Tinto will, “leverage outcomes from the development of Elysis, a disruptive zero-carbon aluminum smelting technology and will offer a potential reduction in carbon emissions of approximately 40 percent for a single can.”

Elysis helps to eliminate greenhouse gases and produces pure oxygen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 07, 2020, 02:21:29 PM

Like summer here today again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2020, 02:26:27 PM

Heat's finally breaking here. Which is good because the HVAC guy won't be here until Friday to fix the air conditioner. High of 83 predicted today, and highs in the 70s the next couple days. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 07, 2020, 02:33:42 PM

It's 81°F right now, I was out running in the sun and it felt plenty like summer.  I have the HVAC off.  

Clouds drifting, apparently that hurricane is influencing our weather some, and rain this weekend from it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 07, 2020, 04:23:07 PM

sunny 80 degrees and a light breeze

my usual golf afternoon........

unfortunately, I have a dinner meeting this evening

I'd rather be golfing, but there will be fine food and plenty of drinks, not on my tab

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 07, 2020, 04:26:35 PM

76 sunny,soft southern breeze wafting about.Heaven weather really,of course with the Great Lakes/Canada won't be long before we hear from Hell

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 11, 2020, 08:53:51 AM

https://grist.org/climate/carbon-capture-moonshot-moves-closer-as-billions-of-dollars-pour-in/ (https://grist.org/climate/carbon-capture-moonshot-moves-closer-as-billions-of-dollars-pour-in/)

In an eye-catching recent deal, a consortium including Amazon and Microsoft invested in CarbonCure Technologies, a Canadian firm seeking to slash the carbon dioxide emissions of concrete. Producing cement, the key ingredient in concrete, creates so much CO2 that if the industry were a country, only China and the United States would emit more over the course of a year.

CarbonCure works with nearly 300 concrete producers to inject captured CO2 into their product. The injected gas chemically transforms into limestone, reinforcing the concrete. Amazon will use the concrete in its buildings, including its vast new headquarters in Virginia.

Currently, CarbonCure is injecting CO2 normally used in products such as carbonated drinks, but hopes to “close the loop” by capturing it from cement production in order to reduce global concrete emissions by 500 million metric tons by the end of the decade.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 03:53:16 PM

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Northern hemisphere hurricane activity is below normal.  It's higher in the Atlantic, and much lower everywhere else (other than Northern Indian).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 11, 2020, 11:14:56 PM

This month, the Netherlands will celebrate the completion of the Borssele 1 and 2 offshore wind farms, located twenty-two kilometers off the coast of the Dutch province of Zeeland. In the sleepy village where the transmission cables come ashore, a relic from the late 1960s hums away, awaiting its decommissioning. That’s because Borssele also has a nuclear power station — the Netherlands’ last remaining such facility, scheduled to be taken off-line in 2033.

Just over a decade ago, plans had been drawn up for a second, perhaps even a third, reactor on site. The abortive expansion project was scrapped partly as a consequence of popular opposition, in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster. But what was ultimately decisive was the law of value as identified by Karl Marx. With the declining cost of renewable energy, nuclear power simply does not make economic sense — even for capitalists, never mind socialists.

Many of the fervent debates within the Left concerning nuclear power have been strikingly unproductive for one simple reason. Nuclear advocates, woefully ill-informed about the frontiers of renewable energy development, tend to avoid discussing the actual dynamics of inter-capitalist competition in the electricity sector. But with many capitalist enterprises and states ditching nuclear and pushing forward with offshore wind, it is essential for socialists to better understand the latter — and begin to engage with it strategically.


https://jacobinmag.com/2020/10/offshore-wind-energy-just-transition-nuclear (https://jacobinmag.com/2020/10/offshore-wind-energy-just-transition-nuclear)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 09:01:38 AM

for the Chemists among us....................

https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/university-of-kansas-joins-industry-partners-to-advance-gas-separation-with-green-materials/ (https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/university-of-kansas-joins-industry-partners-to-advance-gas-separation-with-green-materials/)

“These are furanic-based polymer membranes — it’s a new material that the DuPont Company is commercializing,” said Mark Shiflett, Foundation Distinguished Professor at the KU School of Engineering, who is leading the work. “Think of it as a new plastic. The ultimate reason that they’re making it is as a replacement for PET, the plastic that’s used to produce most beverage bottles. So, when you buy a two-liter Coke or liter of water, the bottle is made out of PET (polyethylene terephthalate) that ultimately comes from petroleum. These furanic-based polymers will replace PET to manufacture what are basically green water and soda bottles. These furanic-based polymers don’t come from petroleum but natural starting materials like fructose.”

The KU researcher said furanic polymers are an ideal material to use for industrial gas separation because they’re largely impermeable to larger gas molecules.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 13, 2020, 09:30:05 AM

Cost?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 10:16:13 AM

it's only money......

Obviously DuPont is going to get paid

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 13, 2020, 10:17:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 03:53:16 PM

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Northern hemisphere hurricane activity is below normal.  

Well Miami did lose

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 13, 2020, 10:58:32 AM

So in the desert Spring was Summer, Summer was an open oven full of activated hair dryers aimed outward, and now Fall is also Summer. 

The thunder snow that is commonplace around here will be cool to see in the Winter. It is a rare weather phenomena elsewhere. I've never seen it before that I can recall. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 11:39:55 AM

we have thunder snow here once or twice a year

not a big deal to this old man any longer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 12:01:39 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 13, 2020, 10:58:32 AM

So in the desert Spring was Summer, Summer was an open oven full of activated hair dryers aimed outward, and now Fall is also Summer.

The thunder snow that is commonplace around here will be cool to see in the Winter. It is a rare weather phenomena elsewhere. I've never seen it before that I can recall.

Ain't gonna be any snow here. But, Spring is summer and Fall is summer.

Add a little water content in your oven and you've got Florida summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 01:24:11 PM

Weather here is awesome as usual. Summer was a little warmer than I prefer, but temps are nothing like you AZ/UT folk and humidity is nothing like you GA/FL folk, so it's bearable. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on October 13, 2020, 01:29:37 PM

Forecasted high here in Phoenix today is 99, but if we do hit 100 we'll tie the record for most 100°+ days in a year at 143, so we got that going for us which is nice.

Phoenix already smashed the records for most 110°+ and 115°+ days this year, as well as most days with a low temp of 90°+ so that's also fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 01:52:15 PM

65, partly cloudy 10mph breeze here at 3pm

I'm hitting the golf course.

won't be too many more afternoons to wear shorts and get in 18 before the sun sets

day light savings ending in a couple weeks - gonna be dark after work

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on October 13, 2020, 02:16:41 PM

Quote from: DevilFroggy on October 13, 2020, 01:29:37 PM

Forecasted high here in Phoenix today is 99, but if we do hit 100 we'll tie the record for most 100°+ days in a year at 143, so we got that going for us which is nice.

Phoenix already smashed the records for most 110°+ and 115°+ days this year, as well as most days with a low temp of 90°+ so that's also fun.

About the only time I don't like it around 100 is when I am officiating a football game. Otherwise give me 100. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 13, 2020, 02:37:58 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 01:24:11 PM

Weather here is awesome as usual. Summer was a little warmer than I prefer, but temps are nothing like you AZ/UT folk and humidity is nothing like you GA/FL folk, so it's bearable.

Actually the rest of the state is high desert, so it is already pretty brisk. St George is the only place with Vegas/Arizona type weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 02:54:22 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on October 13, 2020, 02:16:41 PM

About the only time I don't like it around 100 is when I am officiating a football game. Otherwise give me 100.

apparently you don't have much humidity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 02:55:32 PM

Not much water either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on October 13, 2020, 04:27:51 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 02:55:32 PM

Not much water either.

Plenty of water, we take if from everywhere else :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 13, 2020, 04:44:05 PM

Until they're somewhere runs dry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:55:27 AM

Small modular reactor startup NuScale Power has a new, unlikely ally after a tough couple of weeks in the press: President Donald Trump's Department of Energy.

After the small-scale western utility Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems had several small cities pull out of its planned pilot program with NuScale, the entire utility group started to grumble about the future. But on October 16, the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) approved a $1.4 billion grant to help offset the costs of test driving the new technology.

“The award, to be spread out over 10 years, is still subject to appropriations by Congress,” the Washington Examiner reports. “That could be manageable given that bipartisan majorities have supported NuScale over the years for its potential to prove the viability of small reactors, an emissions-free technology of a type that has never been deployed and expected to be safer and cheaper than traditional large nuclear projects that have struggled economically.”


To call nuclear energy “emissions-free” is a gentle kind of misleading, but it’s true that NuScale has led public imagination about the idea of small modular reactors. And with a design that’s essentially a “new and improved” version of the light water reactors that power every American nuclear power plant today, NuScale has had less regulatory red tape between its dreams and a soon-to-be-realized reality in its pilot projects in the western U.S.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 02:17:35 PM

I think SMRs are interesting.

Each of our fleet carriers is powered by two nuclear reactors, rather specialized of course, but they can drive a 100,000 ton ship at over 40 mph.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 03:50:14 PM

Electric cooperatives served by the Tennessee Valley Authority are welcoming a grid-scale battery storage system the federal utility will install to facilitate lower-emission energy resources at a reasonable cost.

TVA recently announced plans for its first owned and operated battery energy storage system that will supply up to 40 megawatt-hours of electricity, enough to serve more than 10,600 households for three hours.

The federally owned power provider expects to have the energy storage system online in 2022.

“Tennessee’s electric co-ops are advocates for innovative energy projects like this one,” said Trent Scott, vice president of corporate strategy for the Tennessee Electric Cooperative Association in Nashville.

“Advancements in battery storage technology has the potential to make the energy that co-ops deliver more reliable, affordable and sustainable.”


https://www.electric.coop/tennessee-co-ops-welcome-tvas-first-grid-scale-energy-storage-system/?MessageRunDetailID=3566494037&PostID=20945521&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io (https://www.electric.coop/tennessee-co-ops-welcome-tvas-first-grid-scale-energy-storage-system/?MessageRunDetailID=3566494037&PostID=20945521&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 05:25:58 PM

I wonder if it would be cheaper to have the batteries at the domicile.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 05:27:19 PM

we try that in the phone/internet business

too many truck rolls for maintenance

folks living at the residence are creative about finding ways to screw things up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2020, 12:56:05 PM

Crazy morning.

Woke up to the sound of high winds outside at ~5 AM. Got a weather alert on my phone that there would be sustained 35-45 mph winds, with isolated gusts as high as 80 mph, and the wind advisory extends until 2 PM Tuesday.

My wife texted on her commute that the sky was red in Irvine.

I was dropping kids off at school, the 11 yo's teacher told me they didn't have power [but they were taking the kids inside anyway]. Then 10 minutes later I get a call saying school is canceled. Great... So now he's home with me. 

Santiago Canyon is apparently on fire, with extreme winds, and probably ~25 miles south from there my wife sent me the attached picture from her office in Newport Beach.

Hearing of a lot of mandatory evacuations, because there are homes all through those canyons and with these winds it could escape the canyons pretty easily too. 

Thought we were out of fire season. It even rained a little yesterday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 01:00:42 PM

Jeez. That's an eerie look.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 26, 2020, 01:11:30 PM

We finally have some fall temps. High of 51 today. 

The highs were still in the 80s and 90s up until two days ago. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 01:25:21 PM

record snowfall here yesterday

tied the record low this morning at 16 degrees

I miss golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2020, 01:40:16 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 01:00:42 PM

Jeez. That's an eerie look.

Yep. Looks like decent areas of Irvine are under mandatory evacuation, but luckily it's far enough north of here that I don't think we'll have anything to worry about in Mission Viejo...

Quote from: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 01:25:21 PM

record snowfall here yesterday

tied the record low this morning at 16 degrees

I miss golf

I'm playing on Sunday. Supposed to hit a high of 83. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 02:05:43 PM

It's currently 92 degrees in Corpus Christi, TX and 5 degrees in Amarillo, TX.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 02:07:00 PM

(https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/122868069_4771955516179222_193995469156759987_o.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=wsDHRpy_MYgAX8lzVeW&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&oh=30a2ae39f2694931b54c35dc280824b0&oe=5FBBCDB7)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 02:08:45 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 02:05:43 PM

It's currently 92 degrees in Corpus Christi, TX and 5 degrees in Amarillo, TX.

Zounds.  My watch says it's 69°F here.  I am about to go run, will come back drenched no doubt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 02:13:50 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 02:05:43 PM

It's currently 92 degrees in Corpus Christi, TX and 5 degrees in Amarillo, TX.

can't even imagine what it might be like in Kansas today!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 02:15:22 PM

We're not in Kansas any more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 02:19:03 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 26, 2020, 01:40:16 PM

I'm playing on Sunday. Supposed to hit a high of 83.

54 here on Saturday, I might play and watch the Husker game after
playing next Monday, 58 and my name is on the office calendar to be "gone"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 26, 2020, 02:34:57 PM

In a rarity, the temp is going down as the day progresses in Phoenix.  People shivering in 60 degree weather. Snowed up in Flagstaff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 06:58:08 AM

We caught the tail of the latest hurricane, woke me up around 5 AM with high winds (as forecast).  They have now abated, maybe we're in what's left of the eye.

Power is still on here, but most of our lines are underground.

Update:  Turning into a nice day now, this "blew through" quickly, the usual issues in the area.  This was the most wind I've seen since we moved here for a while.

Turning a bit chilly in the coming days (duh), even one low forecast in the high 30s.

That is like a deep freeze in the ATL.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2020, 10:19:46 AM

Consumer Reports released a report based on a test of 17 driver-assist system and Tesla Autopilot came in second to GM’s Super Cruise due to the lack of driver monitoring in the former. The result is similar to their 2018 driver assist rankings.

https://electrek.co/2020/10/28/tesla-autopilot-loses-gm-supercruise-due-to-lack-of-driver-monitoring-industry-wide-test/ (https://electrek.co/2020/10/28/tesla-autopilot-loses-gm-supercruise-due-to-lack-of-driver-monitoring-industry-wide-test/)

The publication started its driver-assist system tests in 2018 with only a handful of systems.

Now two years later, the test has grown to 17 systems:

“In Consumer Reports’ first-ever ranking of these systems, conducted in 2018, we evaluated systems from Cadillac, Nissan/Infiniti, Tesla, and Volvo. Over the last two years these advanced technologies have become more mainstream, and CR’s testing this year now includes 17 systems, including the original four.”

In the new 2020 ranking, GM’s Super Cruise tested in a Cadillac CT6 took the first place with Tesla Autopilot coming in second:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 10:29:35 AM

The car mags say good things about Supercruise also.  I have a low opinion of Consumer Reports in general, but that's another topic.

Imagine a "train" of autopiloted private vehicles traveling nose to tail on a freeway in a special lane at 100 mph or more.  It would end any need for HSR for intercity transportation I think, and work with existing infrastructure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 01:07:30 PM

Our street a few minutes ago, fairly large tree down, unfortunately.

(https://i.imgur.com/TPJ98nB.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2020, 04:15:30 PM

derned reckless hurricanes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 04:18:40 PM

Just back from a lengthy walk, a lot of debris strewn around from trees, mostly branches, but several large trees blew over here and there, including on our street (now cleared).  Impressive to me we can get 50+ mph winds from an expiring hurricane this far inland.

We got hit with a band of rain for about 3 minutes and then in 15 minutes half the sky was cloudless blue and then an hour later we walked through 20 mph winds.  It's calm out now and clear skies, supposed to get cooler.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:12:36 PM

And here's something for all of you autonomous car lovers:

https://www.businessinsider.com/self-driving-roborace-race-car-drove-straight-into-wall-2020-10?utm_campaign=sf-bi-cars&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3eiaPgCCLY7DIcA3HF9UszHxaakZVtSRs45K6Ix5SkbtMTllss5vSV3Bs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 03:18:17 PM

I don't want one

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 03:45:50 PM

Beautiful day here but COLD, was in the 50s earlier.  I am OK so far though.  UGA plays way up north in Kentucky where it will be really cold, and youse guys claim we don't play in cold weather.

Extreme cold, if they don't cancel the game.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 04:10:10 PM

beautiful fall day here, sunny and 50 degrees

going to wash the car

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 09:55:13 AM

Another gorgeous day here, we got below 50°F last night, still reading 49°F.  We're about to head to the market for apples, they have some great apples there.  UGA plays at noon, I thought it was a night game earlier.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 31, 2020, 10:02:02 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 01:07:30 PM

Our street a few minutes ago, fairly large tree down, unfortunately.

(https://i.imgur.com/TPJ98nB.jpg)

That's not a large Tree that's a limb off of my Oak

Bright & sunny,40 deg. here,last 10 days 7 have been overcast and rain after about a month of gorgeous fall weather.40 right now with probable snow tomorrow night

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 10:08:56 AM

Fairly large tree, large enough one would not expect it to topple.

There are some really large trees in the park of course, a century old plus, oaks mostly.

https://www.piedmontpark.org/tree-tours/

There are some large magnolia trees there which are impressive for the type.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on November 01, 2020, 03:58:58 PM

Verrry windy today at the Sporting Clay course. Humbling at times.   Can't beat it for fall time outdoor fun.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 08:36:02 PM

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-formally-exits-paris-pact-aiming-to-curb-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR3WZ8RaBc4forXnTPDGAPjgAg0ooPhNUPfBlMcJCcKQmPjjZYDy-fBvoSo

We are officially out, something which may last 3 months.

I personally don't think it matters at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 09:08:19 AM

I am pondering how much different our CO2 output in the US would be whether we were in the Paris Agreement or out.

Any at all?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 07:27:17 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/big-oil-execs-say-theyre-not-worried-about-bidens-energy-plan.html

In one sense, energy execs are saying they aren't worried because Reality is about to come home to roost for a Biden Administration.  In another, they are saying they have lobbyists who will work to ensure whatever is done is more for show than for go.

I imagine we'll have a push for a "Something", a throw money at it kind of "solution" that in reality does almost nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 12, 2020, 07:32:14 AM

It was windy and rainy here yesterday. Very calm now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 12, 2020, 09:26:39 AM

I encounted some Arizona snow on my way home from Lake Powell, around the turn off for the North Rim at Jacob Lake. About 8.5k feet elevation up there. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 11:39:34 AM

https://psmag.com/environment/the-planet-now-has-more-trees-than-it-did-35-years-ago

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 11:40:37 AM

 more good news

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 01:46:54 PM

https://interestingengineering.com/how-molten-salt-reactors-could-lead-to-the-next-energy-production-boom

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 11:55:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 11:39:34 AM

https://psmag.com/environment/the-planet-now-has-more-trees-than-it-did-35-years-ago

I dunno somewhere people must be planting trees like corn and soybean.Most of the surrounding counties save parks have been gobbled up by residential and commercial development.And Ohio was almost all woods before the Europeans - damn crackers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 07:04:13 AM

A lot of he increase in tree coverage is because we started from such a low level, nearly everything in eastern US had been logged, and tree farms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 07:51:47 PM

Even if humanity stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, Earth will warm for centuries to come and oceans will rise by metres, according to a controversial modelling study published Thursday.


Natural drivers of global warming—more heat-trapping clouds, thawing permafrost, and shrinking sea ice—already set in motion by carbon pollution will take on their own momentum, researchers from Norway reported in the Nature journal Scientific Reports.

"According to our models, humanity is beyond the point-of-no-return when it comes to halting the melting of permafrost using greenhouse gas cuts as the single tool," lead author Jorgen Randers, a professor emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, told AFP.


https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 09:09:39 AM

That is part of what I've been saying, it's too late.  And massive efforts to help mean small benefits over time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 14, 2020, 09:11:43 AM

There you go again hitting me with those negative waves - so early in the morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 09:38:28 AM

Well, reality often is negative, but it's still reality.  I think "we" should start considering active remediation and compensation (building dikes for example).

It's hard for me to see a process that can suck CO2 out of the air that is energy efficient at all, the entropy factor is huge.  Anything that tries to remove something present at 400 ppm faces that core issue.  We have two concepts, aerosols in the upper atmosphere and iron salting the oceans.  Both have been tested and "work" but we don't know what adverse consequences might happen with large scale usage.

There is also a notion the planet is entering a cooling period, that is no more than a notion, and GW is offsetting that natural trend.  I rather doubt this, but it's interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 14, 2020, 09:42:24 AM

The good thing is any reduction is still a reduction.  There is a bit of zero sum to this.  It's kind of like stopping smoking at 50.  It may be too late for some things, but it ain't for others.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 09:49:28 AM

Cost:benefit.

If we spend TRILLIONS of dollars for an insignificant reduction, it's money wasted that could have been used for other endeavors and approaches.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 14, 2020, 09:56:04 AM

If a possible benefit is preserving life as we know it, what cost would be worth it?  A lot of these models are just our best guesses - the effects could be much less, on target, or much more.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 09:59:35 AM

If the models are only "guesses", best or not, then the whole thing may be a false proposition.

If the actual result is better than they all forecast, then we should do very very little.  If the result is much worse, doing anything is way too little too late.

If they are on target, it's also too little too late, and we should explore other options to find where the best "solution" exists after doing cost:benefit analysis.

I see zero reason to dump trillions into "green energy" that ends up with a very very minor impact on the real problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 14, 2020, 10:02:04 AM

Of course the models are guesses.  That's what all models that predict the future are.  We can't possibly account for every variable and we don't understand every process, especially with something as big and variable as the entire climate of the world.  So when we do cost: benefit analysis, the uncertainty of what is going on should be part of the conversation, otherwise you aren't doing any analysis at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 10:05:37 AM

The models are a lot more than "guesses".  They were not developed by folks sitting around GUESSING what might happen.

I've read a good bit about the various models and I have issues with how they are developed, but they are a lot more detailed and involved than pure guesses.

If they ARE guesses (they are not), we shouldn't rely on them AT ALL.

I could GUESS the climate is cooling and we should dump more CO2 into the air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 14, 2020, 10:11:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 10:05:37 AM

The models are a lot more than "guesses".  They were not developed by folks sitting around GUESSING what might happen.

I've read a good bit about the various models and I have issues with how they are developed, but they are a lot more detailed and involved than pure guesses.

If they ARE guesses (they are not), we shouldn't rely on them AT ALL.

I could GUESS the climate is cooling and we should dump more CO2 into the air.

??  Yes, they are guesses.  They aren't blind guesses.  They aren't random.  They are based on the best knowledge we have.  But anyone who does them will (or at least should) tell you they can't be certain.  Of course they can't be certain.  Just look at the election model on 538 - they try to run a model and can get thousands and thousands of different outcomes. The odds of getting one may be more than the other.  But they still have to guess.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 10:20:04 AM

1: to form an opinion of from little or no evidence  She could only guess what he meant.


2: BELIEVE (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/believe), SUPPOSE (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/suppose)I guess you're right


I think they are more valid than a "guess".  If they are not, we should ignore them entirely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 10:22:16 AM

A guess to me is playing roulette and putting chips on five, because you guess it will come up next.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2020, 08:04:16 PM

It has no license to produce electricity, hasn't generated a kilowatt since 1958, and provides no benefits for irrigation or flood control.


But one thing Enloe Dam, built 100 years ago, still does very, very well: block fish from reaching more than 340 miles of high-quality, cold-water habitat upstream in the Similkameen River.

The dam is of no use to anyone, not the small rural public utility district (PUD) that owns it, and not to tribes longing to bring salmon back to this river. Obstacles of cost, liability and a quest by the PUD to revive the dam for more than a decade stood in the way of removal.

But now new efforts are underway to take down Enloe Dam.


https://phys.org/news/2020-11-blocking-miles-salmon-streams-hasnt.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-11-blocking-miles-salmon-streams-hasnt.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 20, 2020, 08:56:21 PM

I once kayaked in a river during a salmon run in Alaska. It was something - you would look down and see fish everywhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 06:42:32 AM

That dam should have never been built.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2020, 07:15:22 AM

Back in the day, dams were viewed as "taming Nature", much the way clear cutting was viewed, and swamp drainage, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 09:05:08 AM

some think abandoned windmills are a problem to dismantle and dispose of

what's the cost of removing a dam?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 09:07:49 AM

Depends on the dam. What's it made of? To remove one, you have to build diversions. You can't have a failure during demo or you would cause a catastrophe. I've done a number of dam failure analyses during my career. I don't think there is a worse flood possible, except maybe a massive storm surge like we had with Katrina. 

But, that was man-made too, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2020, 09:21:01 AM

If it has a spillway, the water level could be lowered hopefully substantially over time and left open.  But the bottom of the spillway could be fairly high relative to dam height.

It's a dam problem.

I imagine removal is costly and no one has the funds.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 11:38:05 AM

They all have spillways, but this one just overtops. A diversion would be necessary.

And then there is a lot of sediment behind the dam too, so finding a place to put that could be problematic. No doubt there is contamination.

There is nothing good about dams.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2020, 12:40:06 PM

Some dams do confer some advantages.  Whether they outweigh the negatives is another story.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 08:10:35 AM

Received Old Man Winter's 1st bitch slap of the season,appears about 4"-5"s and down to 25 deg.Looks pretty damn neat in/on the woods/creek.Going out shortly of course wear a mask/scarf and not for Covid reasons.Hope it's like this the 24th-the 1st 😎

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 08:14:45 AM

It will be dropping to 36 tonight in SW FL. It's 55 now. High of 64. Unseasonably very cold. Normal is 78 and 57.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 08:22:00 AM

:'( :86:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 08:47:26 AM

We had snow showers in the forecast, but I didn't see any, no stick of course.  This is our first night below freezing, 27°F.  It's up to 30°F now.

No wind, no clouds, sunny day, not bad at all really.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on December 01, 2020, 09:02:04 AM

Absolutely beautiful snowfall overnight.  Looks awesome out.  Great day for a fire and some cocoa.  Though snow days ain't what they used to be for the kids.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 09:09:33 AM

Well because of Covid they're home too much.Agree Sam - the snow looks grand

PS - Hmm maybe Ice Fishing this Year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 09:22:47 AM

My buddy in Cincy is sending me photos of the snow there.

I'd be fine with one or two a year, which is about what we get here, and it doesn't last of course.  Old snow is irksome.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on December 01, 2020, 09:33:03 AM

https://youtu.be/2yM5m5-1-I0

https://youtu.be/9t_m1myVBBQ

After removal of the dams of the Elwha River, the fish are back with a vengeance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 01, 2020, 10:16:02 AM

I love stealing logs and sticks from Beaver lodges for shorelunch fuel.   Just doing my part to bring an end to dams.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 10:24:30 AM

The wife doesn't want to walk to physical therapy this morning, I think I can talk her into it.

It's up to34°F, sunny, and little wind, it's a nice winter day, in fall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 01, 2020, 10:55:31 AM

It's been rough... Given the puppy wants to walk around 6 AM every morning, I've had to choose each morning whether to brave it in shorts and a t-shirt, or to grab the light windbreaker from the closet. Brrrrr.....

No worries though, it'll be 77 and sunny later.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 11:41:23 AM

We had a light freeze overnight, got down to 31 for a couple of hours.  Estimated high of 63 and sunny this afternoon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 12:07:05 PM

Well I was w-r-o-o-ng,we got 9" hip high in some places and I'm not done.The bottom wrap around plate that covers the gears and clutch plate comes loose and snaps back.So I'm McGuyvering the damn thing with self tapping screws that fortunately i had on hand and improvised ramp from old underlayment from the kitchen floor and some cynder blocks - cursing and swearing,cursing and swearing.Still not done and my neighbors blower isn't working and we're still getting blasted,on top of that they are breaking in some rookie plow drivers who have left literally a ton of snow in front of most of the cult-a-sac.Finishing some gruel.powering up and back at it.The rain turned to snow making this wet/heavy/difficult - I see Yuengling in my future

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 12:35:56 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 08:10:35 AM

Received Old Man Winter's 1st bitch slap of the season,appears about 4"-5"s and down to 25 deg.Looks pretty damn neat in/on the woods/creek.Going out shortly of course wear a mask/scarf and not for Covid reasons.Hope it's like this the 24th-the 1st 😎

25 degrees isn't mask weather

I imagine the neighbor womenfolk complain whilst yer out in the open

can't ya grow some facial hair?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 02:57:00 PM

We had a pretty long walk, and had lunch at our favorite Cafe.  They have been slammed of late.

The Italian place is closed for lunch Mon-Tue, it's over near the physical therapy place.  I have one more PT to do next week, but baseball was cancelled.

It's not bad outside unless you get trapped between buildings where the wind gets funneled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 06:12:14 PM

46 degrees, full sun, little wind

come on up to NW Iowa

perfect fall afternoon

I took off early to have the MRI on my shoulder

results in a few days

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 06:20:59 PM

31 deg here with 10-12 "s in most places with drifting snow up to 3'.Was out 5 hrs and of course plows came by again and dumped a huge debris field at the top of the drive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 06:42:12 PM

I'm sure mine is on the way

probably waiting until I go in for shoulder surgery

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 08:43:18 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 12:35:56 PM

I imagine the neighbor womenfolk complain whilst yer out in the open

They can't see squat with the windows frosted up and half the time I'm doing their drives so somehow they deal with it - plus I'm weaing a mask.It's when I'm wearing speedos in July that the torches and pitchforks come out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 08:47:24 AM

another beautiful Wings Wednesday here, high in the low 40's, little wind and lots of sun!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 08:49:44 AM

I had my first MRI back in July on the shoulder.  The MRI place is next door to the surgeon, so it went smoothly and I got the results quickly.  I got the actual MRI on CD before I left the office, but I could not make anything of it.

If you need rotator cuff repair, that is what the wife had, and it's no fun.  Mine surgery was a lot less severe and I'm 85% or so now.  I'm better off than I was presurgery in fact.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 08:54:43 AM

good to know

they didn't offer a CD, just said my doc would have results in a few days

if I don't hear from my Doc by Friday, I'll call the office Monday and inquire.

hopefully, my shoulder doesn't require the full deal, but it will be what it is.

I'd like to be able to swing a golf club by the end of April, but.....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 09:03:52 AM

I have a cracked glenoid labrum in my left shoulder and the specialist just gave me a steroid shot - I was hoping for surgery to get some time off of work.I guess it's their policy to get up to 3 shots before undergoing the knife.Shoulder isn't bothering me but cartilage doesn't get any better either

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 09:13:27 AM

https://www.sports-health.com/sports-injuries/shoulder-injuries/slap-tear-shoulder-injury-and-treatment

I had the type 2 tear, and biceps tenodesis are surgery, along with decompression and general clean out of torn crap.

The wife had rotator cuff repair of the supraspinatus tendon, which is the worst thing to have.  The use screws into the bone to reattach it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 02:10:38 PM

I would guess I have a type 2 SLAP tear

as my bicep has slide to just above my elbow in a ball

but, I'm no orthopedic doc

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 10:40:37 AM

And, we're on fire again. And, we again are in the middle of Santa Ana winds pushing things towards south Orange County. Great.

So far both the mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are still a couple miles from us. We're far enough from the hills that it's unlikely we'll even be under an order, and even more unlikely a fire would affect us (it would have to burn LOTS of neighborhoods first), but still no fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:42:17 AM

Damn. How is the air quality?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 10:49:27 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:42:17 AM

Damn. How is the air quality?

Right now I'm pretty much just outside the edge of the smoke zone. Directly above me is blue sky. To the south is beautiful. To the north is smoke. 

When I got up to walk the dog it was still a little dark so I couldn't see where the smoke was, but I could smell it. 

But at least for me the air quality isn't horrible, and shouldn't be unless the fire moves south or the wind direction changes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:50:29 AM

Where are the fires now?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 10:57:30 AM

Hope it stays away from you and yours, bwar.  Fingers crossed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 11:04:01 AM

Here's the current map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/SimpleViewer/index.html?appid=d336e00909d04a669aafc10d756aea75

It doesn't show the outline of the fire very well, but it's pretty easy to piece together where it is based on the evacuation orders. I'm south of Trabuco road, so it's got a LONG way to go before I'm even remotely threatened.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 11:16:28 AM

good luck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 12:01:36 PM

From my backyard...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 12:05:07 PM

Winds have died down though, which will help tremendously. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 01:02:17 PM

expecting rain?

is the rainy season coming anytime soon?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 01:31:45 PM

Renewable generation sources like wind and solar have gained significant ground in the past decade. But most experts agree that fully realizing the potential of these promising technologies will require an even greater breakthrough: economically viable, large-scale, long-term energy storage.

An experiment by Great River Energy just might make it happen.

The G&T based in Maple Grove, Minnesota, is installing an “aqueous air battery” prototype that will provide 1 MW of power for up to 150 hours, with the promise of future grid-scale deployment, at a fraction of current storage costs.

Greg Padden, GRE’s director of resource planning and markets, says the pilot project, expected to come on-line in 2023, reflects the G&T’s commitment to a “cost-competitive portfolio” for its 28 distribution co-ops across Minnesota and their 700,000 member-owners.

“We’re in a very wind-rich part of the country, and that, combined with technology advancements, has made wind power the lowest-cost option for our members,” he says. “That’s very much a driver for this project.”

Great River Energy will generate more than 25% of its power this year from renewable resources, primarily wind, he says, and has set a goal of 50% renewables by 2030.

U.S. Energy Information Administration numbers show wind and solar as the fastest expanding generation sources nationwide, and storage capacity is on a similar trajectory, set to grow from 523 MW in 2019 to 7.3 GW in 2025, according to Battery Energy Storage Overview, a report from NRECA’s Business & Technology Strategies group.


https://www.cooperative.com/remagazine/articles/pages/co-op-tech-great-river-energy-long-duration-storage.aspx?MessageRunDetailID=3839856900&PostID=22659096&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io (https://www.cooperative.com/remagazine/articles/pages/co-op-tech-great-river-energy-long-duration-storage.aspx?MessageRunDetailID=3839856900&PostID=22659096&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 01:31:58 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 01:02:17 PM

expecting rain?

is the rainy season coming anytime soon?

We're starting to reach that time of year, but I don't see any rain in the 10-day forecast. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 04, 2020, 09:42:33 AM

Looks this morning like the fire is either out, or contained enough not to be a threat. I don't even see smoke coming off the hillside. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 09:47:38 AM

Great news.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 04, 2020, 09:48:23 AM

Good to hear it bwar.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 08:07:43 AM

Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5382278/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2020, 08:27:08 AM

Gonna be in the 50s today,1st time in a few weeks.Hope  Old Man Winter doesn't throw anymore haymakers like the one last week.Got 14.5 inches when the forecast was 3-4"s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2020, 02:02:44 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/IDYxwp6.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2020, 02:03:03 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/tTtAjRw.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2020, 02:03:39 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/OVfdKjL.png)

Nice day here to say the least ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 04:27:22 PM

not bad here, but I wouldn't call  it nice or take pictures

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 25, 2020, 11:23:40 AM

We got 11 ",18" 4 miles away at the Airport.According to the Weather Channel the only place it's snowing right now is in the Cascade Mountains and the stretch from Cleveland to Buffalo along the Great Lakes - shocker I tell you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2020, 11:51:39 AM

It was 21° F this morning when I got up, very clear skies.  No wind, it's a nice day really, just coat weather.  It's 36°F now.

We get 4-5 cold snaps each winter.  It nearly always is clear, on occasion it coincides with rain of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on December 26, 2020, 12:03:26 PM

Took the kids sledding - it's cold but sunny, the snow is perfect

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2020, 12:12:11 PM

Woke up to 40 degrees. High of 56. Not a happy camper about this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 26, 2020, 12:18:47 PM

High of 64 today. Figure I should wear jeans instead of shorts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 26, 2020, 02:53:13 PM

69 high in Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 26, 2020, 04:15:56 PM

Beautiful day in Indy, 39 and bright sunshine,  no wind.  Took down all of the decorations, tree and so forth.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 26, 2020, 04:42:24 PM

Been under freezing - 24-25 deg last 3 days teens at night.No significant snofall today.Was nice for Christmas - a little too nice

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 29, 2020, 10:09:35 AM

Another nice day here for winter, sunny, which is my main thing, in the 50s.

I can deal with these winters a lot better than the ones in Cincy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2020, 10:56:25 AM

24 degrees and snowing here

likely to get more than 4 inches, already 2 on the ground

wind is supposed to pick up

it looks like Xmas or New Years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2020, 11:09:58 AM

76 here today. 78 tomorrow. 84, 85 then 83. 72 on my birthday Sunday.

The pool beckons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 29, 2020, 02:02:41 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 06, 2020, 11:10:15 AM

I do think they're going to run into a problem, though... Once you get a sizable portion of the population farther up Maslow's hierarchy of needs, and stably into a middle class, they start getting all these crazy notions about having the political right of self-determination.

Chinese "communism" is basically managed capitalism at this point. People want civil liberties. The CCP can only keep a lid on that for so long.

It's fascism.  Government-run economy with private ownership, plus authoritarian/totalitarian rule.
Like a "HARD" version of the New Deal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2020, 02:06:17 PM

apparently bored

digging up stuff from early October

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 29, 2020, 02:09:51 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 11, 2020, 11:14:56 PM

This month, the Netherlands will celebrate the completion of the Borssele 1 and 2 offshore wind farms, located twenty-two kilometers off the coast of the Dutch province of Zeeland. In the sleepy village where the transmission cables come ashore, a relic from the late 1960s hums away, awaiting its decommissioning. That’s because Borssele also has a nuclear power station — the Netherlands’ last remaining such facility, scheduled to be taken off-line in 2033.

Just over a decade ago, plans had been drawn up for a second, perhaps even a third, reactor on site. The abortive expansion project was scrapped partly as a consequence of popular opposition, in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster. But what was ultimately decisive was the law of value as identified by Karl Marx. With the declining cost of renewable energy, nuclear power simply does not make economic sense — even for capitalists, never mind socialists.

Many of the fervent debates within the Left concerning nuclear power have been strikingly unproductive for one simple reason. Nuclear advocates, woefully ill-informed about the frontiers of renewable energy development, tend to avoid discussing the actual dynamics of inter-capitalist competition in the electricity sector. But with many capitalist enterprises and states ditching nuclear and pushing forward with offshore wind, it is essential for socialists to better understand the latter — and begin to engage with it strategically.


https://jacobinmag.com/2020/10/offshore-wind-energy-just-transition-nuclear (https://jacobinmag.com/2020/10/offshore-wind-energy-just-transition-nuclear)

Marx knew nothing about value.  He argued that "value" is something that can be objectively ascertained.
He was wrong, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2020, 03:25:30 PM

so, his error became a law?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 29, 2020, 04:07:28 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 29, 2020, 02:06:17 PM

apparently bored

digging up stuff from early October

Just scrolling up through the board.
Got dropped onto p. 262 of this thread.
It's an exciting one, I tell ya.
I liked the the climate-forcing report that CD linked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 29, 2020, 04:08:23 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 29, 2020, 03:25:30 PM

so, his error became a law?

Sort of a law, I guess.
Like Murphy's Law and the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 29, 2020, 04:27:03 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on December 29, 2020, 04:07:28 PM

Just scrolling up through the board.
Got dropped onto p. 262 of this thread.
It's an exciting one, I tell ya.
I liked the the climate-forcing report that CD linked.

Funny.  I should post excerpts here about the adventures of John Burwell.  Maybe another thread.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 29, 2020, 05:38:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 29, 2020, 04:27:03 PM

Funny.  I should post excerpts here about the adventures of John Burwell.  Maybe another thread.

~65% through the book so far... Had a couple other things to read first so I only got to it around Christmas Eve. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 29, 2020, 06:05:38 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/NyPy5rY.jpg)

Some phone snaps from our walk today, phones are amazing things.

(https://i.imgur.com/9F6sf96.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/GRLfWHT.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2020, 10:58:45 AM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/134466305_10217139661019233_4318160518407711162_o.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=2&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=n8YpWR-ceuwAX9uo701&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=6b9a929aec220b679600c4ca37cca2dc&oe=6014E09F)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 31, 2020, 11:32:19 AM

I'm still struck by the rhetoric around "climate change".  Both sides (and there are sides which in itself is odd to me) engage in hyperbole and massive exaggeration of what will happen.  "We" really don't KNOW for sure.  The models can only be based on what happened up until now.  The single variable impact of increasing CO2 levels on mean temperature is very small.  The rest is "feedback", things like less ice cover meaning a lower albedo and warming, etc.  There are a LOT of variables at play, which is why we have 5 or 6 major models, all predicting roughly the same end result, but using rather different parameters to get there, and those parameters get adjusted to better fit what has happened over the last century.

And it's difficult to measure mean global temperatures.  The satellite readings apparently are not useful.  Ideally, one would have a weather station every 100 miles or so outside "heat islands" and collect the data, but we never have had that.  We get adjustments to readings for heat island effects, because most weather reports are from urban areas.  Nobody really knows how much heat the oceans are sucking up because a very very small change in temperature there would be an enormous amount of heat.

And then there of course is the practicable matter that there isn't much we can do but reduce projected changes by tenths of a degree, at best.  China and India won't be helping that obviously.  The US might reduce any increase by a tenth or so with GREAT effort and expense.  It doesn't look good if the models are close to being right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 01:52:18 PM

Climate action: How Biden can save our children | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/533145-climate-action-how-biden-can-save-our-children)

Just what we need, another "call to action", with nary a specific in it.

This is another clue how this problem really has no viable solution if the models are right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2021, 02:07:21 PM

if there's no viable solution in the article, how can they be sure that Biden can save our children???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 03:05:34 PM

Just verbiage to sound worthy and say nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2021, 03:23:11 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 03:05:34 PM

Just verbiage to sound worthy and say nothing.

Oh, you mean politician-speak.  Yup.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2021, 04:18:55 PM

All they want is that somebody commits to doing something. Doesn't matter if it's going to fix the problem. But it'll look like they care. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2021, 04:34:05 PM

commit to spending boatloads of $$$

won't save our children, but Biden's children and grandchildren will be safe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2021, 12:43:41 PM

Looks like its snowing in Austin

utee report in please

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2021, 12:55:13 PM

This is an ideal political issue, adopted by many who couldn't write a sensible paragraph describing the concept.  It allows governments to spend money on "stuff" that often may feather the beds of their supporters while decrying "deniers" as being disbelievers in "science".

I've had a few discussions in person with folks of this ilk who spouted all sorts of complete nonsense based on what they remember from the Al Gore movie, as if that is some kind of source of rational technical information.

I'm not a denier myself, but I have delved into the details in my spare time, and the picture is very gloomy if the models are roughly correct.  We're going to spend vast sums globally for perhaps a tenth of a degree reduction in the trends.  Perhaps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 10, 2021, 01:03:38 PM

There are many different types of "deniers," on different topics, from different places on the political spectrum.

We've got people who deny that climate change is occurring and that human activity could be partly to blame.

And we've got other people who deny that there are profound differences between men and women other beyond genitalia.

We all look for evidence that supports the viewpoint most consistent with our overall view of the world.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2021, 01:05:13 PM

Yup, form an opinion first and the seek "facts" to confirm it, and disregard "facts" contrary to that position.

Confirmation bias.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 10, 2021, 01:35:03 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 10, 2021, 12:43:41 PM

Looks like its snowing in Austin

utee report in please

snow in the Dallas area, my brother sent a video for proof

we might see rain again here in NW Iowa this week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2021, 02:17:51 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 10, 2021, 01:35:03 PM

snow in the Dallas area, my brother sent a video for proof

we might see rain again here in NW Iowa this week

Fortunately the snow is not supposed to reach Houston

People go really nuts here when it snows

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2021, 10:56:53 PM

8:10 tee time this morning. Had to remove my pullover on the 2nd tee because it was warming up. 

Socal weather is awesome.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 09:12:54 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 10, 2021, 02:17:51 PM

Fortunately the snow is not supposed to reach Houston

People go really nuts here when it snows

We got around 5" at my house.  Crazy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 11, 2021, 09:16:15 AM

5",Pffft that's a dusting around here,break out the Tito's

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 09:17:41 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 11, 2021, 09:16:15 AM

5",Pffft that's a dusting around here,break out the Tito's

I'm not claiming it's a lot.  But it's certainly a lot for Austin, Texas.  It snowed steadily from 9 AM to 4 PM at my house.  I don't recall that EVER happening here, but of course I've only lived here for 49 years...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 11, 2021, 10:29:43 AM

We had snow in the north Georgia mountains a couple days back, which is not unusual.  They thought we might see flurries in the norther 'burbs'.

That also is typical, brief flurries and no accumulation.  We're due for a couple snows this winter of an inch or two.  We have rain in the forecast today and it's cloudy, but 43°F.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 11, 2021, 10:30:01 AM

Watch for the ice if you're driving,the ground there should still be warmer I'm guessing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 11, 2021, 10:30:55 AM

The lows haven't been below freezing for 2-3 days now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 10:43:12 AM

Yeah our lowest low in the past 2 weeks was just 32 last night, so the snow barely stuck to the roads and melted as soon as any car drove over it.  Roads all clear today, it's bright and sunny, there won't be any evidence of snow at all by 2 or 3 PM.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 11, 2021, 01:08:44 PM

Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 09:12:54 AM

We got around 5" at my house.  Crazy.

shut down the city?

Schools closed this morning?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 02:47:28 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 11, 2021, 01:08:44 PM

shut down the city?

Schools closed this morning?

Yup.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 11, 2021, 02:55:59 PM

People living in Houston have very little grasp on driving in the snow

They are amazed when their car doesnt stop when they wait until the last minute to apply the brakes

There is no such thing as keeping a safe distance between their car and the one in front of them

They just spin around and around in circles before plowing into something

I dont even bother going out when it snows and this makes my insurance company very happy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 11, 2021, 02:58:24 PM

absolutely beautiful January afternoon here - full sun, low 40's, light breeze

might top 50 on Wednesday!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 11, 2021, 11:14:34 PM

It was about 20 degrees when I left home to drive to work.  Heavy, heavy frost on my car, but no precip.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2021, 08:39:34 AM

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Europe’s push into electric cars is gathering speed — despite the pandemic.

Automaker Volkswagen tripled sales of battery-only cars in 2020 as its new electric compact ID.3 came on the market ahead of tough new European Union limits on auto emissions. And Germany, long a laggard in adopting electric vehicles, saw more people buy electrics in December than opted for previously dominant diesel vehicles.

Those are early signs of what will likely be an upcoming year of increasing market share for electric cars as EU regulations drive their adoption, despite the recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic that has caused the overall car market to shrink.

Volkswagen said Tuesday its namesake brand sold 134,000 battery-powered cars last year, up from 45,000 in 2019.


Including hybrids, which combine an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, sales of electrified cars reached 212,000, up from 82,000 in 2019.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 04:11:36 PM

another beautiful Mid-January day here in NW Iowa...

50 degrees, full sun and no wind

should be golfing

forecast calling for a quarter inch of rain tonight followed by an inch of snow tomorrow night

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 14, 2021, 10:40:41 AM

Was chatting with one of my neighbors I ran into on our dog-walking loop and he was commenting on how warm it was, as he was wearing long pants and a jacket and I was nearly sweating in my windbreaker. I told him the forecast today--85 degrees.

His response: "I guess that's why we suffer through Gavin Newsom."

Yep.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 11:54:37 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 14, 2021, 10:40:41 AM

Was chatting with one of my neighbors I ran into on our dog-walking loop and he was commenting on how warm it was, as he was wearing long pants and a jacket and I was nearly sweating in my windbreaker. I told him the forecast today--85 degrees.

His response: "I guess that's why we suffer through Gavin Newsom."

Yep.

Ha, nice!

We're a little warmer than usual right now with highs in mid-upper 60s.  It's supposed to hit 70 this weekend.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 01:35:18 PM

and this is why utee suffers through living in that god awful city

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 01:36:09 PM

It's a miserable existence, I tellz ya!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 03:54:41 PM

DETROIT (AP) — A new government report says gas mileage for new vehicles dropped and pollution increased in model year 2019 for the first time in five years.

The mileage decrease comes as Americans continue to buy SUVs and trucks, and shift away from more efficient vehicles.

The Environmental Protection Agency says the changes show that few automakers could meet what it called unrealistic emissions and mileage standards set by the Obama administration through the 2020 model year.

But environmental groups say that automakers used loopholes and stopped marketing fuel-efficient cars and electric vehicles knowing that the Trump administration was about to roll back mileage and pollution standards.


The EPA report released Wednesday says gas mileage fell 0.2 miles per gallon for model year 2019, while greenhouse gas emissions rose by 3 grams per mile traveled, compared with 2018 figures. Mileage fell and pollution increased for the first time since 2014.

Mileage dropped to 24.9 miles per gallon while greenhouse gas emissions rose to 356 grams per mile, the report said.

To comply with the Obama-era standards, which the Trump administration rolled back starting with the 2021 model year, 11 of 14 major automakers had to rely on credits from previous years or those purchased from companies with more zero emissions vehicles, the EPA said.

EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a prepared statement Wednesday that the agency has set realistic standards “that will reduce emissions as well as vehicle costs and maintain consumer choice going forward.”


https://apnews.com/article/environment-us-news-pollution-fa378a3daf1f73e168afc1312bf4fe75 (https://apnews.com/article/environment-us-news-pollution-fa378a3daf1f73e168afc1312bf4fe75)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 17, 2021, 11:12:15 AM

High winds expected this week, following a great wave and dry conditions... Bad combo.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/17/weather/weather-california-fire-wind-red-flag/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 17, 2021, 11:56:28 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 17, 2021, 11:12:15 AM

High winds expected this week, following a great wave and dry conditions... Bad combo.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/17/weather/weather-california-fire-wind-red-flag/index.html

So every time the winds are strong fires brake out?  Time to clean out the dead stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 17, 2021, 12:16:36 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 17, 2021, 11:56:28 AM

So every time the winds are strong fires brake out?  Time to clean out the dead stuff.

The concern is that high winds can cause power line problems, which ignite the fires. And then high winds make it spread more quickly. Double whammy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2021, 12:33:17 PM

had some 60 mph gusts here Friday with snow

thankfully most utility poles survived

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 19, 2021, 12:29:21 AM

eh, failed to drag the pic over from Siberia, where things have dipped to -73 degrees F in/near/around Yakutsk, which is on the Lena River if I recall from several of the books on Siberia/Stalin and the general miserable history of the region.   Gold mines, extreme cold and suffering.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 01:47:12 AM

coldest Ive ever experienced was in Belmont, Iowa  16 below 

a few days later it warmed up to 30 and those craze Iowans were walking around in their shirt sleeves

couldnt wait to get out of corn country

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 08:37:56 AM

Coldest winter I ever experienced, was the summer I spent in San Francisco.




;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 08:49:20 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 01:47:12 AM

coldest Ive ever experienced was in Belmont, Iowa  16 below

a few days later it warmed up to 30 and those craze Iowans were walking around in their shirt sleeves

couldnt wait to get out of corn country

gonna be 35 here in Iowa today

I'll be wearing a jacket and gloves if I'm out very long

of course, 30s seems pretty warm after a few days and nights at -16 to -26
I've been ice fishing in Minnesota were it was negative 40

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 19, 2021, 09:00:34 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 08:49:20 AM

I've been ice fishing in Minnesota were it was negative 40

One can only dream,damn Walleye/Perch come out from down under

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 19, 2021, 09:14:44 AM

Got some rain drops this morning, and looks like it should rain some into the weekend.  So the highways will be extra fun - desert-dwellers on wet roads and all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 09:22:24 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 19, 2021, 09:14:44 AM

Got some rain drops this morning, and looks like it should rain some into the weekend.  So the highways will be extra fun - desert-dwellers on wet roads and all.

Similar here, though not as extreme.  Austin's not technically a desert, but it has few enough rainy days that nobody here knows how to drive in it.

And a light mist after weeks of dry, is actually the worst, because the roads get really greasy and slick, but people don't slow down because it's not actually raining.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on January 19, 2021, 09:43:31 AM

I once had to jump my car with a dead battery and drive to work on a morning when it was -35 and windy. I think that was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Rochester. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 09:56:50 AM

-27 is the lowest I've been in. That sucked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 19, 2021, 10:30:24 AM

About -30 is my low mark.  I still found ice storms to be worse/more miserable.    My thing w neg 30 type weather, the anxiety around pipes and furnace failures.   Irrational or not it creeps in your mind.  

On flip side,  my car overheated/vapor lock while driving on I90 near Murdo, SD.  It was 111 degrees and very windy.    That was a bottom 3 weather situation in my lifetime.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 10:57:06 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on January 19, 2021, 10:30:24 AM

About -30 is my low mark.  I still found ice storms to be worse/more miserable.    My thing w neg 30 type weather, the anxiety around pipes and furnace failures.  Irrational or not it creeps in your mind. 

On flip side,  my car overheated/vapor lock while driving on I90 near Murdo, SD.  It was 111 degrees and very windy.    That was a bottom 3 weather situation in my lifetime. 

My 1981 Dodge Omni had a crappy VW engine in it, that would vapor lock on an almost-daily basis down here in Texico.  I guess the Germans never planned on their engines enduring Texas summers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 11:04:51 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 10:57:06 AM

My 1981 Dodge Omni had a crappy VW engine in it, that would vapor lock on an almost-daily basis down here in Texico.  I guess the Germans never planned on their engines enduring Texas summers.

one of the things I liked about my 65 Volkswagen (college car) was the fact that the engine was air-cooled

no need to worry about radiators of water pumps

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on January 19, 2021, 11:08:56 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 19, 2021, 09:14:44 AM

Got some rain drops this morning, and looks like it should rain some into the weekend.  So the highways will be extra fun - desert-dwellers on wet roads and all.

was shocked when I left my home this morning and the street were wet.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 11:10:27 AM

Quote from: Riffraft on January 19, 2021, 11:08:56 AM

was shocked when I left my home this morning and the street were wet. 

No one ever explained rain to you?

You need to watch the weather guy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 11:24:11 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on January 19, 2021, 09:43:31 AM

I once had to jump my car with a dead battery and drive to work on a morning when it was -35 and windy. I think that was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Rochester.

the battery was just cold

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 11:25:16 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on January 19, 2021, 10:30:24 AM

About -30 is my low mark.  I still found ice storms to be worse/more miserable.    My thing w neg 30 type weather, the anxiety around pipes and furnace failures.  Irrational or not it creeps in your mind. 

On flip side,  my car overheated/vapor lock while driving on I90 near Murdo, SD.  It was 111 degrees and very windy.    That was a bottom 3 weather situation in my lifetime. 

I nearly drove through a tornado on I-90 near Murdo.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 11:45:46 AM

The lowest official I've seen was -24°F, my buddy had -33°F that day out in the country.  Cincinnati has the coldest recorded low on record in the state of Ohio, -25°F, I think in 1977.  

At -40, °F = °C which is about the freezing point of mercury.

The coldest I have ever felt was -18°F with 40-50 mph winds, and I recall the Bengals were playing a playoff game against the Chargers, that's how far back that was.  Bengals won.

I was going outside to get more wood, we had a heat pump that had no chance of keeping up using resistance heating.

I am a fan of these water source heat pumps though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on January 19, 2021, 11:47:16 AM

We got married an an outdoor site in Vegas.  Unfortunately, they were going through a heat wave so it was 122 degrees during the wedding.  Not great tuxedo weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 11:57:32 AM

Meh. It was a dry heat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2021, 12:00:35 PM

Was chatting with one of the other dog owners on the walk this morning, and he was remarking on the fact that I was wearing an open windbreaker over a t-shirt and gym shorts while he was bundled up in long pants, long sleeves, and a puffer jacket. Asked if I was originally from Wisconsin or something... Nope, Chicago.

He's got a son who is a college basketball player at St Ambrose in Davenport, IA, and he and his other son are going there this weekend to see him play. At least they've looked at the weather and they *know* they're in for it... But I think it'll be a bit of a shock.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 12:03:46 PM

Nice day here, 54°F right now but has clouded up, and we're in for some rain later in the week.

I got an Apple watch for my birthday and I rather like it.  I also got my first iPhone, which is decent, not dramatically better than my old phone though, better battery life.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 19, 2021, 12:09:17 PM

29 deg right now gonna be low 20s overnite.Been a pretty cool winter so far with 2 whopper sno-storms and little in between

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 12:12:50 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on January 19, 2021, 11:47:16 AM

We got married an an outdoor site in Vegas.  Unfortunately, they were going through a heat wave so it was 122 degrees during the wedding.  Not great tuxedo weather.

Reminds me of the time I went out to play a round of golf at the old Desert Inn course in Vegas and there was nobody on the course

I asked the starter where everybody was and he said it was too hot for most folks

It was near 100

I said hell Im from Texas if the temp would run me off Id never play

anyway I paired up with a police officer from Dallas 

we had a cart and played 36 holes in just under 6 hours

great time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 12:18:40 PM

My son got married July 5th, 2019. It was the hottest day on record in Wisconsin that year. It was also super-humid.

Of course, we were wearing black suits. Outside.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 19, 2021, 12:21:13 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 12:12:50 PM

Reminds me of the time I went out to play a round of golf at the old Desert Inn course in Vegas and there was nobody on the course

I asked the starter where everybody was and he said it was too hot for most folks

It was near 100

I said hell Im from Texas if the temp would run me off Id never play

anyway I paired up with a police officer from Dallas

we had a cart and played 36 holes in just under 6 hours

great time

100 out here is fine - it's like 85 in FL.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 12:23:47 PM

My first marriage was August 31 in Raleigh, NC, in some arboretum that in effect was a greenhouse.  The guests didn't last long, nor did the marriage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 12:26:03 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 19, 2021, 12:21:13 PM

100 out here is fine - it's like 85 in FL.

I felt the same way

Could never figure out why it ran everybody off

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 12:33:07 PM

It's interesting how 40°F can be fairly pleasant, or pretty cold, and 95°F can be the same (hot), depending on wind, humidity, and the sun.

A day that is 95° with 78% RH is going to be pretty rough with no breeze in the sun.  That is why the "feels like" temps they report don't make sense to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 12:48:29 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 19, 2021, 12:00:35 PM

He's got a son who is a college basketball player at St Ambrose in Davenport, IA, and he and his other son are going there this weekend to see him play. At least they've looked at the weather and they *know* they're in for it... But I think it'll be a bit of a shock.

they may want to get outta Dodge (Davenport) before the snow hits.  Watch the saturday game, have dinner and git.

otherwise, nice January weather for Eastern Iowa


(https://i.imgur.com/hYOWosa.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 12:49:11 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 19, 2021, 12:09:17 PM

29 deg right now gonna be low 20s overnite.Been a pretty cool winter so far with 2 whopper sno-storms and little in between

supposed to be mid 40s here tomorrow
I'll send it your way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 19, 2021, 12:54:58 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 12:23:47 PM

My first marriage was August 31 in Raleigh, NC, in some arboretum that in effect was a greenhouse.  The guests didn't last long, nor did the marriage.

did you learn how to grow anything - asking for a friend

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 02:15:38 PM

We got married on July 14th in Austin.  It was-- unsurprisingly-- quite hot that day.

But the wedding was indoors and the evening wedding reception was also mostly indoors, with some outside space that felt fine after the sun went down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on January 20, 2021, 09:53:46 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 11:10:27 AM

No one ever explained rain to you?

You need to watch the weather guy.

I don't think the weather guy here in Phoenix has ever mentioned this thing you call rain. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on January 20, 2021, 09:56:50 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 19, 2021, 12:21:13 PM

100 out here is fine - it's like 85 in FL.

As long as it is below 110 it is fine for me.  It is when it get below 80 I get cold. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 20, 2021, 10:04:11 AM

I almost turn the AC on at 80.It's 25 deg right now and I'm headed out to plow.Much more comfortable than 90 or above and humid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 20, 2021, 10:58:56 AM

Quote from: Riffraft on January 20, 2021, 09:56:50 AM

As long as it is below 110 it is fine for me.  It is when it get below 80 I get cold.

if it gets too hot thet shut the airports down

something about reduced lift from the heat

that was a new one on me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 20, 2021, 11:01:51 AM

Air density drops as the air gets hotter.  It's a fairly significant item.  Airplanes need air density to fly.  They can still operate with lower weight.

They do a "weight and balance" calculation before each flight, and air temperature is a factor in that.

Oddly enough, humid air is LESS dense than dry air.  This is a lesser factor.

The function of the wing of a plane is to convert DRAG into LIFT.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 20, 2021, 11:07:08 AM

The one time I drove through Phoenix they had the biggest rain in years

Traffic was a mess

Streets were flooded

People acted like they had never seen rain before

Took us 4 hours to get through town

What struck me was how many were just wading around playing in it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on January 21, 2021, 11:02:54 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 20, 2021, 11:07:08 AM

The one time I drove through Phoenix they had the biggest rain in years

Traffic was a mess

Streets were flooded

People acted like they had never seen rain before

Took us 4 hours to get through town

What struck me was how many were just wading around playing in it

The ground is hard as a rock and drainage is not good.  It is why you see a large number of retention areas around here. Just not enough.  

We get a rain like that once or twice a year.  I think I read somewhere that we get 90% of our annual rainfall from those few deluges.

When I first moved here in 2013. I had officiated my last football game in Ohio during a torrential downpour, couldn't hardly see across the field.  I moved two days later.  Arrived in Phoenix during the first week of High School Playoff games.  Friday morning we had a good, but not torrential downpour.  Had plans to go and watch a game that night and they were all cancelled. I couldn't believe it considering what I went through the week before in a game.  Found out later it had nothing to do with the rain itself, but the flooding that happens because the ground just can't absorb all that water that comes so quick.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 21, 2021, 11:08:43 AM

Sun bouncing off the snow beautiful,high in the low 40's

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 21, 2021, 11:30:42 AM

snow is almost gone after the upper 40s yesterday

today another low 40s day, full sun

expecting a bit of snow this weekend

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2021, 12:09:26 PM

I was driving to the airport in Kona when it rained.  This is the "Sun Coast", they get rain one day a year usually, and this was it.  Traffic had pulled off to the side of the road, in fact it was not a heavy rain.  I dropped my kids off at the airport and spotted a water spout nearby, that was really strange, to me.

You can drive about 45 miles and be in rain forest, or another 45 and see snow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 21, 2021, 12:32:39 PM

My dad was stationed in Hawaii during WW II for a few months and told me it rained in some fashion half the days he was there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2021, 12:34:42 PM

December through April are generally pretty wet there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2021, 12:48:04 PM

The Big Island has almost every climate type extant, I think 11 of 13.  The west side is a desert, the rain one day a year place.  Hilo is a rain forest, over 300 inches a year.

One nice thing about going there is the weather is predictable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 21, 2021, 01:23:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 21, 2021, 12:48:04 PM

The Big Island has almost every climate type extant, I think 11 of 13.  The west side is a desert, the rain one day a year place.  Hilo is a rain forest, over 300 inches a year.

One nice thing about going there is the weather is predictable.

He was stationed on Oahu

Not sure what their rain situation is but my dad said every day around noon it would rain gently for about 30 minutes then the sun would come back out 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2021, 02:03:49 PM

Oahu is much smaller of course with lower mountains and less of a rain shadow, so it rains in Honolulu fairly often.

Two of the volcanoes on The BI are nearly 14,000 feet high.  Mauna Loa is truly massive, it's rare to see the whole thing, it's usually obscured.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 23, 2021, 04:45:55 PM

https://youtu.be/RqppRC37OgI?t=1

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 10:02:58 AM

Hope for better models??

https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2021/0122/Meet-the-team-shaking-up-climate-models (https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2021/0122/Meet-the-team-shaking-up-climate-models)

If scientists can create a new way to predict climate change – making it as accurate as, say, forecasting the weather – it would help people make everyday decisions: how high to build a sea wall or what crops to plant.

There are three main U.S. government-funded climate centers: in New York City; Boulder, Colorado; and Princeton, New Jersey. Rather than compete with the established centers for federal financing, CliMA turned to private money. Soon, it won a pledge from former Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt and Wendy Schmidt, whose philanthropy for the environment ranges from oil cleanup competitions to deep-sea submersibles. They pledged most of the funds needed for the first three years, and with smaller grants, CliMA launched on Sept. 11, 2018.

John Marshall, who developed the oceans model at MIT, says getting funds from outside the government is “a hugely important part of the project.”

“I see the project as a disrupter, like an Uber project,” he says. “Any organization which has been going for a long time, it kind of ossifies.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2021, 10:13:14 AM

These models can only be checked against past history obviously, and that depends on the accuracy of historical global temperature records.

We have 5-6-7 different models.  They all say about the same thing because they were "modeled" using the same historical data.

But they use different parameters and coefficients.  They also inform us very very clearly that we don't have a chance to do much about this.  If the climate really is warming by say 2.5°C by say 2050, a crash super program of great expense might, maybe, cut that to 2.2°C.  Perhaps.

It's simply too late, much of this is already done or baked in.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 10:46:53 AM

this seems to be a bit different.

Using current data from the entire planet

possibly not worrying about checking against past history

also stating that it is too late and we need to calculate the height of a see wall or how far back to move buildings since the oceans will raise, regardless of what measures are taken

very possible it's all burffle and a way to make money

I like the idea of fleecing people outside the government

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2021, 10:53:26 AM

Most climate modelers use past data when they create a model. But that means there is a fire hose of fresh climate measurements that go mostly unused – from satellites, balloons, ships, planes, weather stations, and thousands of sensors floating in the seas. Dr. Schneider wants to plug into that stream and force a new model to learn from it.

“The crux is to use more data, period,” he says. He and his colleagues have spent two years figuring out how to do it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2021, 10:54:50 AM

Using more data would be fine IFF the additional data are reliable and accurate, which is not the case.  Sat data is known to be off for example.

I'm not a fan based on this article (which could be misleading).  This is just one more model.  Yay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 11:12:47 AM

I agree, but trying to have a bit of hope

if only to reveal many of the models are very flawed and should go away

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2021, 11:24:09 AM

We can't know which models are flawed, beyond the fact they are all flawed, until they are tested against future measurements.

This problem is inherent with any model that purports to predict the future aside from those based clearly on core scientific principles.

We know pretty clearly when the sun will burn out and how.  Climate change could be significantly worse, or better, than the models predict.

I suspect this "new model" will predict about the same future as the existing models, for the same reason.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 11:32:11 AM

I'm not sure we really know when the sun will burn out

I heard of "new" revelations regularly stating that old long held beliefs that were regarded as solid and scientific, that are revealed to be inaccurate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2021, 11:34:01 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 11:32:11 AM

I'm not sure we really know when the sun will burn out

It's not that hard a calculation, we know the amount of hydrogen left in the sun, how fast it is being "burned", and dot dot dot.  We know helium will start being fused at some point, and then give or take a few million years it will expand and then collapse.

It's easier to model than climate anyway, and who can argue with the output?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 24, 2021, 11:55:49 AM

what are the models designed to show

that climate changes?

nobody can argue against that

the key is just how much is man's actions causing this change

while I'm for keeping our environment as clean as possible I really have never bought into the idea that mans actions can actually change the climate

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 11:59:01 AM

do we really know the amount of hydrogen in the sun?

or how fast it's being burned?

someone may discover that past measurements were inaccurate

give or take a few million years could be give of take a few billion years, and then why worry?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2021, 12:05:34 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 11:59:01 AM

do we really know the amount of hydrogen in the sun?

or how fast it's being burned?

someone may discover that past measurements were inaccurate

give or take a few million years could be give of take a few billion years, and then why worry?

I think we know with pretty good accuracy those things, and I doubt it ever is revised by anything of significance, but it's possible.

Perhaps a better model would be predicting the speed of a ball at impact when dropped from a height of X meters.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2021, 02:49:33 PM

Whew, 50 raining and windy.....what is this, winter??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 26, 2021, 12:37:03 PM

Temp of 39 when I took the dog for a walk this morning. Even had frost on the lawns, cars, and roofs. 

We've had some rain here, which is pissing me off. My driving range is designed to be a runoff reservoir for rain before it is pumped into a creek and drains into the ocean. Which means that every time it rains the range is closed ~3 days to dry out before the tractor can come around and pick up golf balls. The last rain was overnight Sunday, so it's closed today and probably tomorrow, and then there's rain in the forecast for Thurs/Fri. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 12:43:27 PM

that is bothersome

8 inches of snow here closes down the range, if it were open this month

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 12:44:00 PM

Nubbz,

Sending the white stuff your way

sorry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 26, 2021, 12:44:32 PM

Gorgeous day here, the wife and I had breakfast at a sidewalk cafe.  66°F right now.

I can handle this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2021, 12:48:29 PM

82 and sunny.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 26, 2021, 12:56:28 PM

67 and cloudy

tee em up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 26, 2021, 03:16:44 PM

70 and sunny.  A little chilly but decent running weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2021, 10:50:29 PM

39 and drizzling is stupid.  I need to move further south.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 09:34:38 AM

Cold snap here.

(https://i.imgur.com/BPLD9T2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 10:55:19 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2021, 10:50:29 PM

39 and drizzling is stupid.  I need to move further south.

Mexico City is nice

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 10:56:13 AM

43 right now in H town

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2021, 12:44:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 12:44:00 PM

Nubbz,

Sending the white stuff your way

sorry

I dunno about the white stuff but it's been 18-25 deg.the last couple of daze,not getting over 22 today - throw another witch on the fire

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 12:48:30 PM

I'd still like to see the outline of some kind of a plan that included:

Cost over time
Benefit over time
Outline of how we transition from coal and NG and petroleum to whatever else.

There is a reason such a "plan" does not exist.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 12:48:30 PM

I'd still like to see the outline of some kind of a plan that included:

Cost over time
Benefit over time
Outline of how we transition from coal and NG and petroleum to whatever else.

There is a reason such a "plan" does not exist.

its the benefit over time part thats the question

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 06:13:48 PM

Earth Has Lost 28 Trillion Tons of Ice since the Mid-1990s - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-has-lost-28-trillion-tons-of-ice-since-the-mid-1990s/?fbclid=IwAR1WjnmYlG2_YYuxsOoz57DAKWF5s0CVfKqle01_bX4sNSqSHFYfREPAzsI)

In the 1990s, the world was losing around 800 billion metric tons of ice each year. Today, that number has risen to around 1.2 trillion tons.

Altogether, the planet lost a whopping 28 trillion tons of ice between 1994 and 2017.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 06:23:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 06:13:48 PM

Earth Has Lost 28 Trillion Tons of Ice since the Mid-1990s - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-has-lost-28-trillion-tons-of-ice-since-the-mid-1990s/?fbclid=IwAR1WjnmYlG2_YYuxsOoz57DAKWF5s0CVfKqle01_bX4sNSqSHFYfREPAzsI)

In the 1990s, the world was losing around 800 billion metric tons of ice each year. Today, that number has risen to around 1.2 trillion tons.

Altogether, the planet lost a whopping 28 trillion tons of ice between 1994 and 2017.

the earth is over 4 billion years old

has this ever happened before

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 06:25:34 PM

No doubt it has.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 28, 2021, 06:28:49 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 06:23:46 PM

the earth is over 4 billion years old

has this ever happened before

The earth has undergone 5 known mass extinctions in the planet's history. 

Nothing we, as humans, do is going to hurt the earth. It's bigger and stronger and will recover anything we're capable of. 

We just might merely make it uninhabitable for humans. I doubt the planet would mind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:18:55 PM

Worst case scenario for climate change won't make it uninhabitable for humans.  It could cause some rather serious reductions in population.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 07:28:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:18:55 PM

Worst case scenario for climate change won't make it uninhabitable for humans.  It could cause some rather serious reductions in population.

John Kerry said today that the US could cut its carbon emissions to zero and it would make no difference in global warming

If thats the belief why all the push to spend gazillions of taxpayer money on this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:35:48 PM

I don't know what he said exactly, but it would make a small difference, as it would mean a quarter reduction in the CO2 budget.

We can't do it of course so it hypothetical.

Could you link to what he actually said?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:36:52 PM

“He knows Paris alone is not enough,” Kerry told reporters at a White House press briefing, referring to Biden re-entering the US in the Paris Climate Agreement (https://nypost.com/2021/01/21/world-leaders-laud-us-return-to-climate-fight-under-biden/) in one of his first acts as president.
“Not when almost 90 percent of all of the planet’s global emissions come from outside of US borders. We could go to zero tomorrow and the problem isn’t solved,” Kerry conceded.
The former secretary of state, now Biden’s climate envoy, acknowledged that it would be difficult to bring the world’s top polluters to the table, including China, which produces 30 percent of the world’s carbon emissions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 10:05:05 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:35:48 PM

I don't know what he said exactly, but it would make a small difference, as it would mean a quarter reduction in the CO2 budget.

We can't do it of course so it hypothetical.

Could you link to what he actually said?

https://nypost.com/2021/01/27/kerry-zero-emissions-wont-make-difference-in-climate-change/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 10:06:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:36:52 PM

“He knows Paris alone is not enough,” Kerry told reporters at a White House press briefing, referring to Biden re-entering the US in the Paris Climate Agreement (https://nypost.com/2021/01/21/world-leaders-laud-us-return-to-climate-fight-under-biden/) in one of his first acts as president.
“Not when almost 90 percent of all of the planet’s global emissions come from outside of US borders. We could go to zero tomorrow and the problem isn’t solved,” Kerry conceded.
The former secretary of state, now Biden’s climate envoy, acknowledged that it would be difficult to bring the world’s top polluters to the table, including China, which produces 30 percent of the world’s carbon emissions.

I wouldnt trust China on anything

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 09:17:21 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 07:28:17 PM

John Kerry said today that the US could cut its carbon emissions to zero and it would make no difference in global warming

If thats the belief why all the push to spend gazillions of taxpayer money on this

He said the problem wouldn't be solved, not that it would make no difference.

Obviously it would make SOME difference, just not being an entire solution.  And yes, we're fools to think China won't play us on this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 29, 2021, 10:40:26 AM

The Paris agreement has no teeth, and the worst offenders aren't about to sign anything that DOES.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 29, 2021, 10:42:41 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 28, 2021, 06:28:49 PM

The earth has undergone 5 known mass extinctions in the planet's history.

so you're saying we're due?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 29, 2021, 10:44:27 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 10:06:18 PM

I wouldnt trust China on anything

Just burning all of those infected bats violated any emmissions agreements

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on January 29, 2021, 10:53:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:18:55 PM

Worst case scenario for climate change won't make it uninhabitable for humans.  It could cause some rather serious reductions in population.

Well worse case is some sort of runaway greenhouse effect that makes the world inhabitable for nearly everything, somewhat like Venus.  But the good news is there may be life on Venus.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 10:59:34 AM

That worst case scenario here is not plausible unless you envision something happening many centuries in the future, perhaps.  I think it probable by then we'll have mastered other means of producing energy.

Even a 7°C rise would not render the planet uninhabitable.  It would be bad for many obviously.  But I don't think any sensible person is worried about the planet becoming like Venus.

I still would like to see the outline of a plan instead of just warm and fuzzy vague general notions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 11:04:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 10:59:34 AM

That worst case scenario here is not plausible unless you envision something happening many centuries in the future, perhaps.  I think it probable by then we'll have mastered other means of producing energy.

Even a 7°C rise would not render the planet uninhabitable.  It would be bad for many obviously.  But I don't think any sensible person is worried about the planet becoming like Venus.

I still would like to see the outline of a plan instead of just warm and fuzzy vague general notions.

You haven't read The Green New Deal?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 11:06:20 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 11:04:33 AM

You haven't read The Green New Deal?

I glanced at it and laughed.  A fifth grader could write something better, and it of course was a Resolution meaning nothing at all.

I like cost:benefit analyses, as I've said before, and it's a clear signal when they don't exist for any real plan.  This train has done run.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 11:08:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 11:06:20 AM

I glanced at it and laughed.  A fifth grader could write something better, and it of course was a Resolution meaning nothing at all.

I like cost:benefit analyses, as I've said before, and it's a clear signal when they don't exist for any real plan.  This train has done run.

You mean you dont think destroying every building and replacing it with a more energy saving one is good?

Youre just a non believer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 29, 2021, 11:26:55 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 10:59:34 AM

That worst case scenario here is not plausible unless you envision something happening many centuries in the future, perhaps.  I think it probable by then we'll have mastered other means of producing energy.

Even a 7°C rise would not render the planet uninhabitable.  It would be bad for many obviously.  But I don't think any sensible person is worried about the planet becoming like Venus.

I still would like to see the outline of a plan instead of just warm and fuzzy vague general notions.

I think that one of the things we bank on as humans is that climate is generally comprised of negative feedback loops. Usually one thing happens that swings us in another direction, and the consequence of that is an effect that puts a brake on the result of the first thing.

If climate in general were comprised of positive feedback loops, it's unlikely that complex life would have ever developed on Earth. 

I think some of the hubris of humanity is taking that idea, that generally climate is self-regulating, and discounting the chance of something which pushes it out of its regulation zone to where you can have runaway effects. And I'm not sure you can state that those runaway effects would be "centuries in the future", as we don't know where/when the tipping points might be. 

That's why I bring up the 5 mass extinctions in the planet's history. It's happened before. It will happen again. Whether or not it will happen this time, due to this cause, is a complete unknown. 

I don't think anthropogenic global warming will trigger the next global mass extinction. But I'm not going to say it can't, or that it would take centuries, if we do actually hit a climate trigger point where positive feedback dominates.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 11:31:46 AM

I don't believe any model is predicting a runaway climate, I haven't seen one anyway.

Could it happen?  Sure, it's a possibility at some point, I just am unaware of any serious consideration of it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on January 29, 2021, 11:36:29 AM

I wouldn't say climate science is poorly understood, but by its very nature it's difficult to account for the many, many variables. So the models are our best guesses, though should be viewed with a healthy amount of skepticism due to the limits of our knowledge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 11:41:03 AM

Can anyone find the outline of some plan that gives some indication of how much it would cost and what the benefits would be coupled with some general enablement beyond just saying "wind and solar"?

I can't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 29, 2021, 11:42:26 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 11:31:46 AM

I don't believe any model is predicting a runaway climate, I haven't seen one anyway.

Could it happen?  Sure, it's a possibility at some point, I just am unaware of any serious consideration of it.

Many of their models may have a failure of imagination as well. 

Some of the most dire models suggest that the warming will trigger a thawing of permafrost, which contains more carbon than the entire amount currently in the atmosphere, and could trigger release of methane as organisms break down the organic material therein. Methane of course believed to be an even more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. 

What do we believe to be consistent in a couple of the mass extinctions? Rapid increase in CO2 and methane.


(https://i.imgur.com/accpvPm.png)

Not saying it's going to happen... But that's worst case scenario.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 29, 2021, 11:47:27 AM

This board is a barrel of monkeys today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 12:16:34 PM

Worst Case Climate Scenario Might Be (Slightly) Less Dire Than Thought - Inside Climate News (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01022020/worst-case-climate-change-ipcc-heat-drought-storms/?gclid=CjwKCAiAgc-ABhA7EiwAjev-j7BcZtjAKQ6zWdC1OAxqVmIQMdGbjRkAfyGAmFQRnf-lwqW6c1joyhoC7wkQAvD_BwE)

(https://i.imgur.com/4MMAxnz.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 01:03:13 PM

We could consider a massive worst case scenario where this thing does spiral out of control and mean temperatures increase past 40°C, a general sterilization temperature for many organisms.  Some humans would survive at high altitude even so, but food would become a problem.  Some might survive in caves if energy was not an issue.  That would be a mass extinction even obviously.

And it's too late to change it really if that is going to happen.

The mean temperature on Venus is something like 800°C.  That would kill off everything I can imagine, we'd have to be in space to survive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on January 29, 2021, 01:35:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 01:03:13 PM

We could consider a massive worst case scenario where this thing does spiral out of control and mean temperatures increase past 40°C, a general sterilization temperature for many organisms.  Some humans would survive at high altitude even so, but food would become a problem.  Some might survive in caves if energy was not an issue.  That would be a mass extinction even obviously.

And it's too late to change it really if that is going to happen.

The mean temperature on Venus is something like 800°C.  That would kill off everything I can imagine, we'd have to be in space to survive.

Seems bad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 01:36:42 PM

Not only bad, but unavoidably bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 01:43:33 PM

the world started to go south when all of a sudden you couldnt buy freon

man that change sure made a big difference didnt it

nope the greeners just moved on to farting cows

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 29, 2021, 01:43:54 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 29, 2021, 11:47:27 AM

This board is a barrel of monkeys today.

Welcome King Kong

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 01:45:07 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 01:43:33 PM

the world started to go south when all of a sudden you couldnt buy freon

man that change sure made a big difference didnt it

nope the greeners just moved on to farting cows

The Freon story actually is a success story, in my view.  The cure didn't cost all that much and appears to be working.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 01:48:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2021, 01:45:07 PM

The Freon story actually is a success story, in my view.  The cure didn't cost all that much and appears to be working.

and just what did it do

fix the ozone

there is absolutely no proof that wouldnt have gone away on its own

and yes some day it will rear its ugly head again

and when it does by by something else that helps man live more comfortably 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2021, 05:19:22 PM

While it makes for endless dad jokes, it’s a myth that cow farts cause global warming.

Cows actually burp out methane as their complex ruminant digestive systems break down plant materials, explains Dr. Sara Place, an animal scientist with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

Critics often cite global averages to suggest that cattle are one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gas, but those figures don’t tell the whole story, Place says.

Research shows that removing all livestock and poultry from the U.S. alone would only reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 0.36 percent.

Specifically, cattle farming in the United States is the most environmentally friendly and sustainable in the world, she says.

In the last 40 years, the U.S. cattle herd has shrunk by one-third, yet U.S. farmers are producing more beef today than they did in the 1970s, Place notes.

We're also reducing emissions within the dairy industry, too. In 1950, the U.S. had 25 million dairy cows. Today, we only have 9 million. The herd has shrunk drastically, but with those 9 million cows we are producing 60% more milk, according to Dr. Frank Mitloehner of U.C. Davis.

That means that the dairy industry’s carbon footprint is down by two-thirds in the U.S. since 1950. That’s a substantial reduction in carbon dioxide and methane emissions. Fewer cows means fewer cow burps (and cow farts).


https://www.iowafarmbureau.com/Article/Question-Do-cow-farts-really-contribute-to-global-warming (https://www.iowafarmbureau.com/Article/Question-Do-cow-farts-really-contribute-to-global-warming)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 01, 2021, 08:17:48 PM

That was probably the 2nd heaviest snowfall I've ever dealt with.   Somewhere in the 2-5 inch range, it felt like shoveling lead.   The heavy snowfall changed to thunder snow followed by rain for good measure.   Snowblower wouldn't do much,  I didn't even start it as it would get clogged.   Feel like I was tortured 24hrs later.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2021, 08:22:25 PM

unfortunately, I know Ed Zachery what you're speaking of

another reason to move next to Utee

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 01, 2021, 08:27:55 PM

Quote

Specifically, cattle farming in the United States is the most environmentally friendly and sustainable in the world, she says.

(https://i.imgur.com/alOCatF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 06:20:32 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 01:48:38 PM

and just what did it do

fix the ozone

there is absolutely no proof that wouldnt have gone away on its own

and yes some day it will rear its ugly head again

and when it does by by something else that helps man live more comfortably

There is pretty convincing evidence, to me, that Freon caused damage to the ozone layer and the Montreal Accord is working.  There also is pretty good evidence that compounds like CFCs, highly halogenated hydrocarbons, are "forever compounds", once made, they don't go away in Nature, except very very slowly.

I was not aware that the replacements are all that bad for heat pumps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 08:17:05 AM

Big Oil, climate and Covid: Energy experts on the industry's outlook (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/big-oil-climate-and-covid-energy-experts-on-the-industrys-outlook.html)

Uncertainty, some suspect 2019 will prove to be Peak Oil, but not because we ran out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 09:48:37 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 29, 2021, 01:48:38 PM

and just what did it do

fix the ozone

there is absolutely no proof that wouldnt have gone away on its own

and yes some day it will rear its ugly head again

and when it does by by something else that helps man live more comfortably

Refrigerators in the U.S. consume about the same energy as 25 large power plants produce each year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 09:51:10 AM

Here are the top ten most common residential appliances listed in order of energy consumption:

• Central Air Conditioner (2 ton): 1450 kWh/month
• Water Heater (4-person household): 310/kWh/month
• Refrigerator (17-20 cubic foot): 205 kWh/month
• Dryer: 75 kWh/month
• Oven Range: 58 kWh/month
• Lighting 4-5 room household: 50 kWh/month
• Dishwasher: 30 kWh/month
• Television: 27 kWh/month
• Microwave: 16 kWh/month
• Washing Machine: 9 kWh/month

Use of electricity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/use-of-electricity.php)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 09:58:47 AM

I'd think the washing machine would use a lot more as I just put in an xtra lg load.Cindy does a lot more laundry than I.I would think that  from spinning a tub with water and wet clothes and then the the spin cycle to boot that would draw some current

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 10:08:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 09:51:10 AM

Here are the top ten most common residential appliances listed in order of energy consumption:

• Central Air Conditioner (2 ton): 1450 kWh/month
• Water Heater (4-person household): 310/kWh/month
• Refrigerator (17-20 cubic foot): 205 kWh/month
• Dryer: 75 kWh/month
• Oven Range: 58 kWh/month
• Lighting 4-5 room household: 50 kWh/month
• Dishwasher: 30 kWh/month
• Television: 27 kWh/month
• Microwave: 16 kWh/month
• Washing Machine: 9 kWh/month

Use of electricity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/use-of-electricity.php)

so, it's those folks living down south running the A/C year around ruining the planet?

wash your cloths and hang them on a line to dry.  Seems we should have a federal law banning clothes dryers.  Green new deal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 10:10:11 AM

curious as to where the electric car would land on that list if considered a residential appliance

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 10:12:26 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 06:20:32 AM

There is pretty convincing evidence, to me, that Freon caused damage to the ozone layer

A few years back I brought this up to the HVAC Tech who also taught at a local trade school.We were discussing the type of freon used in my Bryant heat pump that he was servicing.He believed the opposite and according to him so did many of the other techs based on some semi convincing data he had.Of course that could be bombast he absorbed from industry chiefs protecting their lively hood

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 10:14:19 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 10:10:11 AM

curious as to where the electric car would land on that list if considered a residential appliance

My investment in the local Electric Company may finally pan out after 20 + yrs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 10:15:56 AM

I wouldn't be persuaded by a HVAC tech when it comes to a chemistry question.

I imagine somebody somewhere has concocted charts or some argument to the contrary, but the chemistry, to me, looks sounds, as does the scientific evidence.

I think the current types of coolant are a bit less efficient and more expensive, but the pain has been fairly modest it seems to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 10:20:53 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 10:08:50 AM

so, it's those folks living down south running the A/C year around ruining the planet?

wash your cloths and hang them on a line to dry.  Seems we should have a federal law banning clothes dryers.  Green new deal

Ha until 2018 I did just that weather permitting.However after having all new facia/soffiting/siding/gutters.I wasn't drilling thru any of that which might weaken where eye hooks were mounted

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 10:22:25 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 10:10:11 AM

curious as to where the electric car would land on that list if considered a residential appliance

An EV is going to need around 50 KWh per day, depending on battery size and how much you drive it of course, maybe 1,000 KWh per month. If you drove it say 40 miles per day, the demand would of course be much less.


(https://i.imgur.com/Dkarlbr.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 10:24:54 AM

Well we had another 2"-3" last nite,very light and powdery unlike the 2 massive gobs that were dropped in December.Been seasonably cold maybe even below average but below sno fall expectations also - so far.

Welp time for breakfast and shovel the drive.Incedibly bright with the sun popping out of course colder than a well diggers destination

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 10:26:03 AM

Chilly and windy here, zero snow so far, though  someone saw brief flurries in December (not me).

36°F and sunny, very windy though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 02, 2021, 10:34:46 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 10:08:50 AM

so, it's those folks living down south running the A/C year around ruining the planet?

wash your cloths and hang them on a line to dry.  Seems we should have a federal law banning clothes dryers.  Green new deal

actually here in Houston I have not run the air since late October

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 10:39:21 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/ntZX3iW.jpg)

So, we need about 28 KWh to drive a small vehicle 100 miles, today.  That would require 1,000 or so KWh per month (roughly) driving over 3,000 miles a month.  A more typical drive would be 700 miles per month with an EV I suspect.  It's clear that ONE EV is going to bump your electricity needs.

I'm paying about six cents per KWh here.  That's less than $2 to drive a hundred miles for me.  And no oil changes, no brake pads (probably), some battery deterioration over the years though.

My GTI needs about 3 gallons of premium per hundred miles at $2.15 per, call it $6.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 10:41:39 AM

IMO they seem to be a long way off navigating some of these winters.But for the sake of my Electric stock I hope not

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 02, 2021, 10:50:26 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 10:39:21 AM

So, we need about 28 KWh to drive a small vehicle 100 miles, today.  That would require 1,000 or so KWh per month (roughly) driving over 3,000 miles a month.  A more typical drive would be 700 miles per month with an EV I suspect.  It's clear that ONE EV is going to bump your electricity needs.

I'm paying about six cents per KWh here.  That's less than $2 to drive a hundred miles for me.  And no oil changes, no brake pads (probably), some battery deterioration over the years though.

My GTI needs about 3 gallons of premium per hundred miles at $2.15 per, call it $6.

ok 3 points:

1  The 3 gallons of gas not used equates to about $1.50 in taxes which the gov will get somehow

2  How many vehicles in the US and what would the electricity needs be for the nation  Not sure we have the capacity for the increase
    Need ability to recharge on the road unless driving vacations will be over

3  How will the US produce this energy?  If its from gas or coal what have we achieved.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 10:59:54 AM

It is still better in terms of CO2 production to use and EV even with coal as the source.  It's not MUCH better, but some.

It will be a while before EVs get prevalent to the point we really need more electricity, but it's coming.  By 2035, I would GUESS a typical family has an EV and another ICE car for trips etc., or maybe they rent an ICE car for trips.  Most driving is less than 40 miles a day, trips up the average.

I've read that we could need 25-30% more power on the grid if EVs were 100%.  They are around 1% today, the percentage of new car sales is higher of course.

(https://i.imgur.com/R8Ypkhr.png)

EEI Celebrates 1 Million Electric Vehicles on U.S. Roads (https://www.eei.org/resourcesandmedia/newsroom/Pages/Press Releases/EEI Celebrates 1 Million Electric Vehicles on U-S- Roads.aspx)

They project 18 millions EVs by 2030.  We have about 274 MILLION registered vehicles out there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 11:13:13 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 10:20:53 AM

Ha until 2018 I did just that weather permitting.However after having all new facia/soffiting/siding/gutters.I wasn't drilling thru any of that which might weaken where eye hooks were mounted

ya don't have a back yard?  put up a couple poles

ya know where the term "cloths line tackle" comes from back yard football

I'm too lazy to haul stuff outside during the summer, but in the winter many things come out of the dryer after a few minutes to warm them up and then hang on chairs, hooks, whatever in the house.  Saves electricity and adds humidity to the dry air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 11:24:38 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 10:39:21 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/ntZX3iW.jpg)

So, we need about 28 KWh to drive a small vehicle 100 miles, today.  That would require 1,000 or so KWh per month (roughly) driving over 3,000 miles a month.  A more typical drive would be 700 miles per month with an EV I suspect.  It's clear that ONE EV is going to bump your electricity needs.

I'm paying about six cents per KWh here.  That's less than $2 to drive a hundred miles for me.  And no oil changes, no brake pads (probably), some battery deterioration over the years though.

My GTI needs about 3 gallons of premium per hundred miles at $2.15 per, call it $6.

those pictured above seem to be about half the size of a GTI
Electric cars have no break pads???  amazing  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 11:27:45 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 11:24:38 AM

those pictured above seem to be about half the size of a GTI
Electric cars have no break pads???  amazing 

The Chevy Bolt is close to the size of a GTI.  EVs have brake pads but rarely use them.  The Bolt is very slightly larger on the interior.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 11:29:20 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 11:13:13 AM

ya don't have a back yard?  put up a couple poles

Stanislav and Stosh said their arms get tired

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 11:30:59 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 11:13:13 AM

I'm too lazy to haul stuff outside during the summer, but in the winter many things come out of the dryer after a few minutes to warm them up and then hang on chairs, hooks, whatever in the house.  Saves electricity and adds humidity to the dry air.

Same-same,great minds and all that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on February 02, 2021, 02:16:55 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 02, 2021, 10:12:26 AM

A few years back I brought this up to the HVAC Tech who also taught at a local trade school.We were discussing the type of freon used in my Bryant heat pump that he was servicing.He believed the opposite and according to him so did many of the other techs based on some semi convincing data he had.Of course that could be bombast he absorbed from industry chiefs protecting their lively hood

Generally not a conspiratorial person, but it is such a coincident that Freon was found to be bad and needed to be banned when Dupont's patents were running out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 02:22:41 PM

 In the late 1920s, a research team was formed by Charles Franklin Kettering (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Franklin_Kettering) in General Motors (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors) to find a replacement for the dangerous refrigerants then in use, such as ammonia. The team was headed by Thomas Midgley, Jr (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.).^{[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freon#cite_note-Sneader2005-4)} In 1928, they improved the synthesis of CFCs and demonstrated their usefulness for such a purpose and their stability and nontoxicity. Kettering patented a refrigerating apparatus to use the gas; this was issued to Frigidaire (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frigidaire), a wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors).^{[5] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freon#cite_note-5)}

In 1930, General Motors and DuPont (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DuPont) formed Kinetic Chemicals (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_Chemicals) to produce Freon. 



Those patents expired LONG ago.  in 1928, a patent only lasted 17 years from date of issue, or 1945.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 08:34:40 AM

Freakin' 36 degrees here right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2021, 08:48:52 AM

A US patent today, FYI, expires twenty years after date of filing.  The rule changed some time back from 17 years from date of issue to 20 from date of filing.

Once expired, the technology is open for use by anyone.  And you're "supposed" to reveal everything you know about the invention to enable someone else to practice it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 04, 2021, 12:49:36 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 08:34:40 AM

Freakin' 36 degrees here right now.

shhhh, I'm trying to convince the yankees to move to your neighborhood, not mine...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 04, 2021, 01:02:25 PM

Shorts weather here..

At least for a Midwestern transplant...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2021, 01:05:56 PM

46°F here, cloudy, no chance of rain apparently.

I was pondering how much climate would need to change in a person's lifetime that he'd notice, unaided.  If you think of an average shift of say 2°F, that really isn't much to notice.  A farmer might start to think about it, and a wine grape grower could notice.  It would be tough to spot for most of us, who might recall that winter of '17 when it snowed this much and was below 0°F and that didn't happen any more.

And of course, we could have a severe winter that would not alter the averages much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on February 04, 2021, 01:08:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 04, 2021, 08:48:52 AM

A US patent today, FYI, expires twenty years after date of filing.  The rule changed some time back from 17 years from date of issue to 20 from date of filing.

Once expired, the technology is open for use by anyone.  And you're "supposed" to reveal everything you know about the invention to enable someone else to practice it.

I would have to do some research, but too lazy right now.  I seem to remember reading an article in some business journal that stated the patent expired in 1979.  I would assume at this point that Dupont did some modification to extend their patent(s) to get to 1979.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2021, 01:30:19 PM

connect the DOTS, do the MATH and smell the COFFEE » CFC (dotsmathcoffee.com) (http://dotsmathcoffee.com/?tag=cfc)

Monocyclic halogenated hydrocarbons with a five-membered ring

Indeed, they did have a patent scheduled to expire in 1983.  This of course is not the standard Freon of any commercial ilk used at the time.  It's a process patent and relates to a CFC with a cyclic member.  I'd imagine duPont has hundreds of related patents.

THE PROCESS FOR FLUORINATING HALOHYDROCARBONS WHICH COMPRISES CONTACTING A VAPOR MIXTURE OF A HALOGENATED ALIPHATIC HYDROCARBON OF 1 TO 8 CARBON ATOMS IN WHICH ADJACENT CARBONS ARE LINKED SOLELY BY 1 TO 2 VAENCE BONDS AND IN WHICH THE HALOGEN ATOMS HAVE AN ATOMIC WEIGHT OF LESS THAN 80 AND INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE HALOGEN ATOM HAVING AN ATOMIC WEIGHT BETWEEN 35 AND 80 AND AT LEAST A STOICHIOMETRIC PROPROTION OF ANHYDROUS HYDROGEN FLUORIDE WITH A CATALYST WHICH CONSISTS ESSENTIALLY OF AN ACTIVATED ANHYDROUS CHROMIUM (111) OXIDE AT A TEMPERATURE IN THE RANGE OF FROM ABOUT 150*C. TO ABOUT 700*C. SUCH THAT THE PRINCIPAL REACTION IS THE SUBSTITUTION OF FLUORINE FOR OTHER HALOGEN OF THE HALOGENATED HYDROCARBON, SEPARATING THE FLUORINATED COMPOUND FROM THE REACTION MIXTURE.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 01:24:10 PM

Earth heats up due to pandemic’s cleaner air, study finds

https://fox8.com/news/earth-heats-up-due-to-pandemics-cleaner-air-study-finds/ (https://fox8.com/news/earth-heats-up-due-to-pandemics-cleaner-air-study-finds/)

The study states:

“The COVID-19 pandemic changed emissions of gases and particulates. These gases and particulates affect climate. In general, human emissions of particles cool the planet by scattering away sunlight in the clear sky and by making clouds brighter to reflect sunlight away from the earth. This paper focuses on understanding how changes to emissions of particulates (aerosols) affect climate. We use estimates of emissions changes for 2020 in two climate models to simulate the impacts of the COVID-19 induced emission changes. We tightly constrain the models by forcing the winds to match observed winds for 2020. COVID-19 induced lockdowns led to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, chiefly soot or black carbon and sulfate (SO4). This is found to reduce the human caused aerosol cooling: creating a small net warming effect on the earth in spring 2020. Changes in cloud properties are smaller than observed changes during 2020. The impact of these changes on regional land surface temperature is small (maximum +0.3K). The impact of aerosol changes on global surface temperature is very small and lasts over several years. However, the aerosol changes are the largest contribution to COVID-19 affected emissions induced radiative forcing and temperature changes, larger than ozone, CO2 and contrail effects.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 05, 2021, 02:15:09 PM

So the smog actually protects the earth from the evil sun?

Kinda like back in the Dark Ages, when a good thick layer of crusty dirt on your skin, was thought to protect you from illness?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 05, 2021, 02:24:18 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 05, 2021, 02:15:09 PM

So the smog actually protects the earth from the evil sun?

Kinda like back in the Dark Ages, when a good thick layer of crusty dirt on your skin, was thought to protect you from illness?

great smog both increases and decreases global warming

I understand perfectly

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 03:32:36 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 01:24:10 PM

Earth heats up due to pandemic’s cleaner air, study finds

https://fox8.com/news/earth-heats-up-due-to-pandemics-cleaner-air-study-finds/ (https://fox8.com/news/earth-heats-up-due-to-pandemics-cleaner-air-study-finds/)

The study states:

They're full of shit this has been a steady cold winter around the Great Lakes.Some yahoo hangs a thermometer in a bush next to a dryer vent and posts Ka-Ka hoping for clicks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 03:37:57 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 05, 2021, 02:15:09 PM

Kinda like back in the Dark Ages, when a good thick layer of crusty dirt on your skin, was thought to protect you from illness?

Wimanz pay good coin for mud packs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:44:44 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 05, 2021, 02:24:18 PM

great smog both increases and decreases global warming

I understand perfectly

so, why wasn't the earth warmer 100 years ago, before the 2nd industrial revolution?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 05, 2021, 03:49:13 PM

The cause, and scope, of the Little Ice Age remains a mystery.  Some suggest the sun went into a period of reduced activity.

Some claim it only happened in the northern hemisphere.  Some claim it was due to a volcanic eruption (for 300 years?).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:53:10 PM

well, no one knows what caused it, but I'm sure there are many articles that proclaim scientific evidence and push it as fact

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 05, 2021, 04:50:08 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:44:44 PM

so, why wasn't the earth warmer 100 years ago, before the 2nd industrial revolution?

How much of human activity centered around burning wood in those days? For heat, for cooking, etc? Burning logs creates plenty of particulate matter. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 04:55:04 PM

seems to me that you folks in California have been burning too much wood lately

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 05, 2021, 05:04:49 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 04:55:04 PM

seems to me that you folks in California have been burning too much weed lately

There, fixed that for you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 05:23:49 PM

So, China should be really cold.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 06:01:49 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:44:44 PM

so, why wasn't the earth warmer 100 years ago, before the 2nd industrial revolution?

Ya Pittsburgh should have been like Boca Raton

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 06:04:04 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 05, 2021, 03:49:13 PM

The cause, and scope, of the Little Ice Age remains a mystery.  Some suggest the sun went into a period of reduced activity.
Some claim it only happened in the northern hemisphere.  Some claim it was due to a volcanic eruption (for 300 years?).

Might have been the Indians in a Pennant Chase

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: HK_Vol on February 05, 2021, 07:34:57 PM

Ignore this!  We need much more bureaucratic mandates.
After all, if we don't, where are the opportunities for graft?
And it deprives those on the left opportunities to virtue signal.


(https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screen-Shot-2021-02-05-at-4.10.49-PM-550x600.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 07:37:57 PM

Not suppose to get above 22 deg for the next week,11 tonite,below 0 mid week,been about 4 -5 yrs it has been this consistently cold.But it is a dry cold,Had 3 people this week go thru the ice in Medina County.Shouldn't be a problem next week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 08:04:59 PM

didn't get to 20 today, not supposed to get above 9 degrees for the next 10 days

gonna be some double digit negatives for over night lows

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 06, 2021, 12:49:40 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 08:04:59 PM

didn't get to 20 today, not supposed to get above 9 degrees for the next 10 days

gonna be some double digit negatives for over night lows

fore?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 06, 2021, 07:08:14 AM

:D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2021, 09:20:28 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 06, 2021, 12:49:40 AM

fore?

we do have simulators around here at bars, golf courses and casinos

the newer simulators are pretty good, but I'm not a huge fan
I'd rather go to Top Golf or Top Shot, but too damned cold for that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2021, 04:53:14 AM

Interesting, more coal to be burned?

(https://i.imgur.com/LzHJSRX.png)

You can see that nonhydro renewables is increasing in increments of 2% a year.  Do you think that pace will increase now?  How much?  Coal is obviously the worst option for CO2 generation.

If that 2% stays constant (and it would struggle as the figure gets larger), we'd be at 32% by 2030, which would be a nice chunk, but not really enough to impact climate change.

And of course any increase in coal usage is going the wrong way fast.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 09:13:05 AM

nuclear and hydro going down

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2021, 09:56:46 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 09:13:05 AM

nuclear and hydro going down

Yes, this is one of the challenges of course, and demand will go up, a lot, once EVs really take hold.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 08:06:13 AM

I will be interested in seeing what sort of "plan" our government contrives in DC this round, not that I think much can pass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2021, 07:44:32 AM

Ford Makes $29 Billion Commitment to EVs and Self-Driving Cars (caranddriver.com) (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35432253/ford-ev-commitment-announced/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR3Lq_WEnZEOx7aysz40rXuw1XX3zWGsAfeDgGXJLLhMlzfBBHCXAPhfJuY)

So, Ford and GM both are going heavily for EVs.  That doesn't mean they will of course, the market will determine that, but I think  it clear that we are headed to an EV future.  I would guess by 2040, most new cars in the US will be EVs, maybe 90% of them.  Of course, that doesn't mean 90% of car on the road will be EVs.  The percentage is still low today obviously.

Could we hit 50% by 2040?  It's possible.

That would increase our need for electricity by 15% or so by itself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 09:59:10 AM

I'm not safe behind the wheel now.  20 more years and they'll take my license.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2021, 02:47:46 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/1tWaLQG.png)

If this is close to accurate, the coal and NG figures are rather notable.  Were it up to me, I'd focus on shutting coal plants to the extent practicable.  Our failure on nuclear is kind of stunning to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 07:12:22 AM

What if we had a plan to build nuclear to replace coal in the US?  Standardize on one type of nuke, maybe use the SMR approach, and for each new nuke, shutter a similar set of coal plants producing the same amount of power.

Clearly, if the above projections are close to right, we'll still have a large amount of coal in 2050.  It sounds nice to say wind and solar of course, but you have to face reality and the numbers at some point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on February 11, 2021, 08:09:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 09, 2021, 07:44:32 AM

Ford Makes $29 Billion Commitment to EVs and Self-Driving Cars (caranddriver.com) (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35432253/ford-ev-commitment-announced/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR3Lq_WEnZEOx7aysz40rXuw1XX3zWGsAfeDgGXJLLhMlzfBBHCXAPhfJuY)

So, Ford and GM both are going heavily for EVs.  That doesn't mean they will of course, the market will determine that, but I think  it clear that we are headed to an EV future.  I would guess by 2040, most new cars in the US will be EVs, maybe 90% of them.  Of course, that doesn't mean 90% of car on the road will be EVs.  The percentage is still low today obviously.

Could we hit 50% by 2040?  It's possible.

That would increase our need for electricity by 15% or so by itself.

That would be great and reduce the demand on gasoline and diesel fuel and should drive the prices down so I don't have to pay as much at the pump. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 08:23:43 AM

At some point, we'll use petroleum mostly for lubricants and chemicals and perhaps airline fuel.

Peak oil could be today, but for reasons not contemplated when the term was used.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 11, 2021, 11:01:17 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 07:12:22 AM

What if we had a plan to build nuclear to replace coal in the US?  Standardize on one type of nuke, maybe use the SMR approach, and for each new nuke, shutter a similar set of coal plants producing the same amount of power.

Clearly, if the above projections are close to right, we'll still have a large amount of coal in 2050.  It sounds nice to say wind and solar of course, but you have to face reality and the numbers at some point.

Just when I thought  I had you pegged as a greener you come out with something sensible like that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 11, 2021, 11:03:12 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 08:23:43 AM

At some point, we'll use petroleum mostly for lubricants and chemicals and perhaps airline fuel.

Peak oil could be today, but for reasons not contemplated when the term was used.

gasoline production accounts for 45% of the current oil usage

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 11:10:35 AM

Speaking of global warming, we're getting a couple of arctic blasts though CenTex over the next few days.

The high on Monday is currently forecast at 21, and the overnight low at 9.  I'm pretty sure I've never encountered single-digit temps in Austin, Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 11, 2021, 11:42:49 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 11:10:35 AM

Speaking of global warming, we're getting a couple of arctic blasts though CenTex over the next few days.

The high on Monday is currently forecast at 21, and the overnight low at 9.  I'm pretty sure I've never encountered single-digit temps in Austin, Texas.

as if its not bad enough to get that cold it is also forecast to stay below freezing for 30 hours which is big for us Texans

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 11:45:21 AM

82 here today.

(https://i.imgur.com/K3DlVQq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 12:30:01 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 11:45:21 AM

82 here today.

(https://i.imgur.com/K3DlVQq.png)

Case closed.  Move to Florida, not Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 11, 2021, 01:47:28 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 12:30:01 PM

Case closed.  Move to Florida, not Texas.

No Tito's or Live Oak there even the Lizards fall out of the trees when they find out.Sounds like you're getting N.Ohio weather,evidently 77% of Lake Erie is ice covered.Brother says they're pulling nice Walleye thru the ice again in the Western Basin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on February 11, 2021, 02:25:48 PM

Gonna be cold AF here for the forseeable future in MSP. Next projection of temperature above zero is Tuesday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 11, 2021, 02:29:28 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on February 11, 2021, 02:25:48 PM

Gonna be cold AF here for the forseeable future in MSP. Next projection of temperature above zero is Tuesday.

we Texans dont know what to do when the temp gets below 32
especially if theres ice on the roads
thats when we like to go out and crash into things

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 02:51:40 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 11, 2021, 02:29:28 PM

we Texans dont know what to do when the temp gets below 32
especially if theres ice on the roads
thats when we like to go out and crash into things

Yup.  That's where I'm a Viking!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on February 11, 2021, 03:09:28 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 11, 2021, 02:29:28 PM

we Texans dont know what to do when the temp gets below 32
especially if theres ice on the roads
thats when we like to go out and crash into things

I saw enough footage of that wreck in Fort Worth this morning to know that I would have called in sick instead of getting on the freeway. 

If I wanted to watch a demo derby I'll go to the county fair.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2021, 03:36:06 PM

a couple things about snow when its around zero degrees

it's crunchy, meaning it makes loud crunching noises when driven on or walked on or compressed

it's also very light and fluffy - used my leaf blower on the driveway this morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 03:43:19 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on February 11, 2021, 03:09:28 PM

I saw enough footage of that wreck in Fort Worth this morning to know that I would have called in sick instead of getting on the freeway.

If I wanted to watch a demo derby I'll go to the county fair.

NOBODY in DFW had any business getting on the road this morning.

If Austin had those same conditions, I'd have made my wife and kids stay home.  

We get snow and ice so rarely here, we just don't have any infrastructure to deal with it.  No plows, no sanding/deicing crews.  Very few vehicles that handle well in those conditions.  And even fewer drivers who are accustomed to it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 05:30:43 PM

When will we get realistic about climate change?  

That means realization it's too late.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2021, 05:39:08 PM

that's going to take a long time, politicians can't send money to their friends if it's too late

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 11, 2021, 05:57:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 05:30:43 PM

When will we get realistic about climate change? 

That means realization it's too late.

why say this

what has been posted to cause you to say this

or did you just hit the random button on your new computer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2021, 06:32:42 PM

he might be planning to move some stocks around

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 06:52:03 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 11, 2021, 05:39:08 PM

that's going to take a long time, politicians can't send money to their friends if it's too late

You underestimate them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2021, 07:30:54 PM

oh, they will find another reason to move our money around to their friends, but.......... at least force them to find another reason

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 08:16:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/8LJZNJd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 08:22:43 AM

Warm Beer has been held in check as well it should

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 08:35:03 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on February 11, 2021, 03:09:28 PM

I saw enough footage of that wreck in Fort Worth this morning to know that I would have called in sick instead of getting on the freeway.

If I wanted to watch a demo derby I'll go to the county fair.

HA!We got disqualified from the County Fair DD around '84 when caught with cement in the door panels of an old El Dorado.Until then we won 2 heats

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 08:58:02 AM

Sunday-Wednesday we're supposed to hit a period where we spend 72 hours or more, below freezing. Including a high of 19 and a low of... 1... on Monday.  I can't really recall that happening in Austin, in my lifetime. 

Also have snow in the forecast for Sun, Mon, and Wednesday.  Since we already had one big snow day this year, that would be fairly unprecedented.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 09:00:19 AM

The climate is changing for sure. Or, the weather is changing. 

One of the two. Or both.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 09:03:00 AM

Down here most powerlines are overhead.  So when trees get icy and droop, and/or  branches break, they knock out the power.  There are branches down all over the city right now and my parents' house, my brother's house, my sister's house, and several friends' houses, went without power for most of last night.

Up here in my neat and tidy HOA-restricted neighborhood though, all power lines are buried by statute.  So we're fine.  Hopefully it stays that way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 09:21:04 AM

No freezing here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 10:17:55 AM

How about fires?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 10:20:16 AM

Everyone should move to California and Florida.

Including me.  Good Lord I hate cold and ice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 10:23:04 AM

No ice fishing for YOU - one year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 10:27:52 AM

Make that a permanent lifetime-ban and then we're talking!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 10:29:47 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 10:17:55 AM

How about fires?

We're out of fire season. It hasn't been a particularly rainy winter here, but enough.

Quote from: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 10:20:16 AM

Everyone should move to California and Florida.

Including me.  Good Lord I hate cold and ice.

Probably not a big issue for you in your palatial estate, but you may want to investigate to see figure out whether your water pipes are running in exterior walls or not. Up in the Midwest they try to bring them up in interior walls to avoid them freezing and then rupturing during frigid spells, and I think most of the more temperate parts of the country they often run along exterior walls because it's easier. 

It's probably not cold enough there for them to freeze, but especially as you're probably running your furnace to keep the inside of the house a balmy 85, but something to check nevertheless.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 10:37:01 AM

Exterior walls here are concrete/block, since the early 1990's. It's code.

Anyway, all of my water pipes run through the attic, and drop from there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 10:41:07 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 10:29:47 AM

We're out of fire season. It hasn't been a particularly rainy winter here, but enough.
Probably not a big issue for you in your palatial estate, but you may want to investigate to see figure out whether your water pipes are running in exterior walls or not. Up in the Midwest they try to bring them up in interior walls to avoid them freezing and then rupturing during frigid spells, and I think most of the more temperate parts of the country they often run along exterior walls because it's easier.

It's probably not cold enough there for them to freeze, but especially as you're probably running your furnace to keep the inside of the house a balmy 85, but something to check nevertheless.

Thanks, definitely appreciate the heads-up and advice from those that know far better than I do.

Almost all of my water lines are on interior walls, I do have one that comes up to a second floor lavatory on an exterior wall, I'm keeping that cabinet door open and that faucet dripping for the duration.

The real problem down here is exterior spigots-- all of mine are wrapped, and none of them are on north-facing walls so the wind effects are minimized.  But at some point, staying below freezing for up to 96 hours (including overnight dips down to 9, 1, and 19 degrees) could take its toll.  If it turns out that way, that will be-- by FAR-- the hardest hard freeze in my lifetime, in Austin.

(https://i.imgur.com/Y8JH4xo.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 11:42:27 AM

Leave the cabinet doors under sinks open or cracked.Specially if Bathroom or kitchen sink is on an outside wall.'Scuse me whilst I find my Ice Fishing gear

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 12:05:25 PM

unprecedented cold streak here as well

the local weathermen haven't talked about breaking records yet, but I don't remember such an extended cold since the mid-80s.  We set a bunch of records back about 1984 or 85 in the southeast part of the state

looking at daytime highs of negative 6 Sunday and Monday with overnight lows near 25 below

25 below might set a record

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 12:06:21 PM

Nubbz,

Sending it your way as usual.

grab your mittens and battery powered heated socks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 01:12:14 PM

Guess I won't be golfing this weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 01:15:51 PM

UTee - make sure all of your hoses are disconnected from the spigots.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 12, 2021, 01:19:45 PM

shut off water supply from sprinkler systems

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 01:43:10 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 01:12:14 PM

Guess I won't be golfing this weekend.

I've been winter golfing in Chicago. 

It's a battle, though, between the ball not flying as far due to the density of cold air, but how much additional run-out you get from it landing on frozen ground as hard as concrete.

Can't use a white ball, either, in case it ends up in an area of the course with a little accumulated snow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 01:58:28 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 01:43:10 PM

I've been winter golfing in Chicago.

It's a battle, though, between the ball not flying as far due to the density of cold air, but how much additional run-out you get from it landing on frozen ground as hard as concrete.

Can't use a white ball, either, in case it ends up in an area of the course with a little accumulated snow.

Every single part of that sounds horrible.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 02:04:24 PM

I don't even attempt that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 05:34:20 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 12:05:25 PM

unprecedented cold streak here as well

the local weathermen haven't talked about breaking records yet, but I don't remember such an extended cold since the mid-80s.  

There was 6-7 years ago back 2 back winters the Great Lakes froze over.Weather Man said 2014 was last time we've had 3 weeks or more of extended cold from 11- mid 20s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 12, 2021, 05:50:28 PM

Gloomy here, but warm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 06:01:28 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 12:06:21 PM

Nubbz,

Sending it your way as usual.

grab your mittens and battery powered heated socks

Got a couple of witches on the fire now but my ex sister-in-law escaped.Maybe headed your way grab the man hole covers and the plastic tarps

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 06:02:11 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 05:34:20 PM

There was 6-7 years ago back 2 back winters the Great Lakes froze over.Weather Man said 2014 was last time we've had 3 weeks or more of extended cold from 11- mid 20s

if I ever bump into Al Gore, I'm gonna kick his ass

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 06:03:48 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 06:01:28 PM

Got a couple of witches on the fire now but my ex sister-in-law escaped.Maybe headed your way grab the man hole covers and the plastic tarps

is she hot?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 06:08:04 PM

Where she's from is.She reminds me of the Bess Armstrong in "High Road to China" with Tom Sellack.Snooty/Snoty/Entitled twat waffle.But she likes strapping duffers from NW Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 06:26:35 PM

I'm not as tall as big Tom, but my bedside manner is solid

(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BNTBmOTc0ZGMtZjhlMS00YjlmLWIxYTYtMjQyYzM1ZDc3YTM0XkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMjUyNDk2ODc@._V1_.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 06:40:45 PM

She gives credibility to the rumor Eva Braun made it out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 09:15:27 AM

Imagine you were told you had cancer and had a year to live, but this pill could give you an extra day.  And it cost ONE MILLION DOLLARS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2021, 09:18:38 AM

not for a day

not for a month

not for an extra year unless there was a big life event coming up in that time frame.

Such as, the birth of a grandchild or one of my daughters getting married

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2021, 09:21:29 AM

national weather guy on CBS this morning states.......

with global warming, the cold temps this weekend in Minneapolis are 12 degrees warmer than they would have been 50 years ago.

In other words, w/o global warming this weekend's temps would be would be 12 degrees colder

and states it as fact


WTF???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2021, 09:24:44 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 13, 2021, 09:21:29 AM

national weather guy on CBS

I stopped there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 13, 2021, 09:32:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 09:15:27 AM

Imagine you were told you had cancer and had a year to live, but this pill could give you an extra day.  And it cost ONE MILLION DOLLARS.

Depends. Whose million am I spending? ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2021, 10:04:47 AM

Not mine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2021, 10:05:01 AM

we all ALWAYS spent affluent Californian's money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 13, 2021, 10:21:49 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 13, 2021, 09:21:29 AM

national weather guy on CBS this morning states.......

with global warming, the cold temps this weekend in Minneapolis are 12 degrees warmer than they would have been 50 years ago.

In other words, w/o global warming this weekend's temps would be would be 12 degrees colder

and states it as fact


WTF???

Yeah I remember working with a guy that was like "back in the 70s the ponds would be completely frozen solid from December to February, now it barely freezes once or twice a year."

It would take a warming trend of like half a degree a year in order to have that major of an impact over half a life span.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 10:37:13 AM

Possibly, on this day fifty years ago the temperature was colder, a matter of fact?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 10:38:18 AM

We supposedly have had nearly one degree Celsius of warming since 1920.  That isn't enough for a human to notice casually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2021, 10:39:54 AM

supposedly

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 10:41:32 AM

I will be fascinated to see the specific climate change plan put forward, something with actual specific steps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2021, 10:48:01 AM

There is a plan. I'm sure of it.

(https://i.imgur.com/R9qXVd2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 10:58:58 AM

Yeah, think we can expect most of it, a lot of spending that might reduce climate change 0.01 deg C.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 13, 2021, 11:50:31 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 13, 2021, 09:21:29 AM

and states it as fact


WTF???

Well they've been covering politics so long it just naturally spills over - be my guess.They certainly aren't good at it


(https://i.imgur.com/7ZmNqgw.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 13, 2021, 11:53:06 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2021, 10:48:01 AM

There is a plan. I'm sure of it.

(https://i.imgur.com/R9qXVd2.png)

After inventing the internet they are now working on climate change.At least you could act grateful 847 :D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 13, 2021, 11:58:22 AM

We'll see if the current crop continues to rob our children and grandchildren so they can be a bit richer.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 01:55:01 PM

Spend money for tiny benefit, at best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 13, 2021, 01:58:50 PM

Certainly a much bigger benefit than most things we spend money on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 04:05:26 PM

I don't think so at all obviously.

Much of what is spent is for a good cause even if it is wastefully done.

A tiny benefit no one can notice, ever, at great cost. Idiotic in my book.

What else in the Federal budget is spent with no purpose that is hundreds of billions?  We're already in serious debt and that is getting worse rapidly.  More senseless spending is contrary to any common sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 13, 2021, 05:02:21 PM

We spent many sheckles on the war in Iraq, and what did we get out of it? A war in Iraq. I guess at least we got what we bargained for. Contrast that to spending on climate change, where we have at least a nominal goal and can measure success to some degree.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 06:22:32 PM

Government does waste money, I don't see that as reason to waste more.  Cost-benefit.  Simple concept.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 13, 2021, 06:52:46 PM

I'm a fan of trying to maintain the composition of the atmosphere. Not too liberal when it comes to monkeying around with that, so I think it's money well spent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 06:55:36 PM

Well, let's review.  I've shown there is no plan.  We don't know how much anything would cost, or what would be done, even in broad strokes, and we don't know the benefit, except that we KNOW the benefit will be trifling.  Tiny.  Absurdly small.

I'm not in favor of spending billions with no benefit.

We'd be better off looking into how best to manage what is inevitable at this point.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 13, 2021, 08:06:38 PM

In contrast, I've shown there is no shortage of plans, the costs are minimal compared to potential benefits, and the costs of doing nothing are huge. Wasteful. Terrible. A complete abdication of responsibility both environmentally and economically. 

It's simply nonsensical to waste money like that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2021, 08:10:06 AM

Cite one real plan with costs, methods, and expected benefits.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2021, 09:28:06 AM

I'd like to see China's plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2021, 09:46:17 AM

China has a PR plan, and I suspect the US "plan" will amount to the same, PR, plus billions for a select few who get contracts.

A real plan would include:

Projected costs over time.
Projected benefits over time (CO1 reductions leading to ostensibly reductions in increasing T)
Some outline of the how.

The "how" needs to be more specific than "build more wind and solar".  Those government estimates for our energy sources by 2050 show how daunting the problem really is.  And as noted, EVs are going to increase demand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2021, 09:50:02 AM

I think any plan needs to account for what the sun wants to do with itself. Someone needs to talk to the sun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2021, 09:51:54 AM

I've seen some information on solar activity here and there, the studies seem to be all over the place.

I'm not sure the sun is a factor at this point, it could be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2021, 09:59:16 AM

https://usm.maine.edu/planet/sun-getting-hotter-if-so-why-will-earth-eventually-become-too-hot-life#:~:text=Astronomers%20estimate%20that%20the%20Sun's,too%20hot%20to%20support%20life.


The Sun is becoming increasingly hotter (or more luminous) with time. However, the rate of change is so slight we won't notice anything even over many millennia, let alone a single human lifetime. Eventually, however, the Sun will become so luminous that it will render Earth inhospitable to life. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 10:14:02 AM

the polar vortex is scheduled to move on in about 6 or 7 days.  That will be fine.

forecast was for overnight low around 25 below... glad they were wrong.  Only about 15 below.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2021, 10:14:31 AM

Seems to me the sun has a plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 10:16:30 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2021, 09:59:16 AM

https://usm.maine.edu/planet/sun-getting-hotter-if-so-why-will-earth-eventually-become-too-hot-life#:~:text=Astronomers%20estimate%20that%20the%20Sun's,too%20hot%20to%20support%20life.


The Sun is becoming increasingly hotter (or more luminous) with time. However, the rate of change is so slight we won't notice anything even over many millennia, let alone a single human lifetime. Eventually, however, the Sun will become so luminous that it will render Earth inhospitable to life.

if someone would like to send a billion dollar grant, I'll come up with a study regarding the sun and it's potential to change the earth's climate

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2021, 11:14:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 10:16:30 AM

if someone would like to send a billion dollar grant, I'll come up with a study regarding the sun and it's potential to change the earth's climate

and while your at it explain how man has caused this and what man can do to change it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 14, 2021, 11:55:24 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 10:14:02 AM

the polar vortex is scheduled to move on in about 6 or 7 days.  That will be fine.

forecast was for overnight low around 25 below... glad they were wrong.  Only about 15 below.

Grab the sunblock,cold here but sun has been out actually rather "luminous".Occasional flakes falling and quite cheerful.Been weeks since it's been freezing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2021, 12:04:45 PM

I'll be fascinated no doubt by the climate change legislation that is cobbled together.  I imagine lobbyists have been busy, this is going to be a feeding frenzy, Solyndra on steroids.  But it might not pass the Senate of course.  Maybe they can cloak it in some infrastructure plan?

That Canadian oil is going to get refined and burned, pipeline or not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 12:53:05 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 14, 2021, 11:55:24 AM

Grab the sunblock,cold here but sun has been out actually rather "luminous".Occasional flakes falling and quite cheerful.Been weeks since it's been freezing

I'll be on my way to Texas nest Sunday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2021, 01:49:24 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 14, 2021, 11:14:43 AM

and while your at it explain how man has caused this and what man can do to change it

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FrankHilariousBear-size_restricted.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 02:14:18 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p180x540/147126491_3818941481460410_9091941465627944269_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=YdV4EoVLXCIAX9ls7PJ&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=34cbc570590c41f274aca787bd1eb84e&oe=604F4881)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2021, 03:38:17 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 02:14:18 PM

[img width=477.619 height=540 alt=May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'IT S NATIONAL HATE FLORIDA DAY! 30 -12 -11 -10 @StaySaltyFlorida 25 13 37 12 28 22 10 -3 34 8 -7 6 3 42 44 5248 39 50 49 58 38 63 17131321 42 42 29 6 15 55. 57 27.25 11 15 27 27 25 57 30 29 3835 34 47 38 45 25 31 33 37 47 30 35 36 45 54 70 77 80 220210PMCM/2PR201200P1ST']https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p180x540/147126491_3818941481460410_9091941465627944269_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=YdV4EoVLXCIAX9ls7PJ&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=34cbc570590c41f274aca787bd1eb84e&oe=604F4881[/img]

There's a 49 next to the dot where I live, but my car says that it is 55.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 14, 2021, 04:25:47 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 12:53:05 PM

I'll be on my way to Texas nest Sunday

Taking the Vortex with you?Bring your Cart and show them how to drive in crappy weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2021, 04:30:49 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 02:14:18 PM

[img width=259.091 height=540 alt=May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'IT S NATIONAL HATE FLORIDA DAY! 30 -12 -11 -10 @StaySaltyFlorida 25 13 37 12 28 22 10 -3 34 8 -7 6 3 42 44 5248 39 50 49 58 38 63 17131321 42 42 29 6 15 55. 57 27.25 11 15 27 27 25 57 30 29 3835 34 47 38 45 25 31 33 37 47 30 35 36 45 54 70 77 80 220210PMCM/2PR201200P1ST']https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p180x540/147126491_3818941481460410_9091941465627944269_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=YdV4EoVLXCIAX9ls7PJ&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=34cbc570590c41f274aca787bd1eb84e&oe=604F4881[/img]

66 here in SoCal today.
Hit the range with my son. First time he's swung driver. Had one carry >100 which wasn't bad for a 13 yo who got his first real clubs for Christmas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2021, 05:11:43 PM

21 here at my house in the ATX.   Freezing drizzle has all the roads basically shut-down and it's not going to get above freezing for several days.

Everyone should move to California or Florida.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2021, 05:23:59 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 14, 2021, 05:11:43 PM

21 here at my house in the ATX.  Freezing drizzle has all the roads basically shut-down and it's not going to get above freezing for several days.

Everyone should move to California or Florida.

its a balmy 31 and beginning of snow here in northwest Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2021, 06:04:04 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2021, 03:38:17 PM

There's a 49 next to the dot where I live, but my car says that it is 55.

Now I'm in Mesquite Nevada and it's 60s with people swimming outdoors, lol.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2021, 06:09:08 PM

Just got out of the pool. Water is 88.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Benthere2 on February 14, 2021, 06:34:46 PM

weathers has sucked in the upper Midwest

-20 temps and windchills in the -40+ 

literally for about 10 days and still coming our way

-24 tonight temp

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2021, 06:35:07 PM

2022 Chevy Bolt EV Has Same 259-Mile Range but Is $5500 Cheaper (caranddriver.com) (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35494747/2022-chevrolet-bolt-ev-revealed/?utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR0Nnn1OFDsdgdpivjSBXUqBhuaDh4aobNv2j3e3yrlNSOeiIoUfbOs3nqw)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 08:13:23 PM

never fear, 60 Minutes showed that Bill Gates is working on Greenhouse gas emissions

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-gates-climate-change-60-minutes-2021-02-14/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-gates-climate-change-60-minutes-2021-02-14/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2021, 08:49:57 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 08:13:23 PM

never fear, 60 Minutes showed that Bill Gates is working on Greenhouse gas emissions

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-gates-climate-change-60-minutes-2021-02-14/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-gates-climate-change-60-minutes-2021-02-14/)

thats a relief


we're saved

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 14, 2021, 09:55:12 PM

Warmer in Indy than nearly all of Texas right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 10:02:02 PM

and you feel no guilt

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 14, 2021, 10:17:47 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 10:02:02 PM

and you feel no guilt

Well, while we actually will avoid the sub zeroes of my fellow Midwesterners to the west, we are going to get 6 to 9 here tomorrow.   Of course, that's what the Toro is for.  
 
My Houston friend is actually giddy for this.   He's come a long way from total misery one Jan month in Lincoln years ago when we were in one the -20 stretches.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on February 14, 2021, 10:45:55 PM

It's currently 50 degrees warmer in my refrigerator than it is on the porch. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2021, 10:46:10 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2021, 06:09:08 PM

Just got out of the pool. Water is 88.

Just got out of my hot tub.  Water is 99.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2021, 11:00:10 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on February 14, 2021, 09:55:12 PM

Warmer in Indy than nearly all of Texas right now.

People should definitely move to Indiana, California, and Florida.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 07:39:13 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on February 14, 2021, 10:45:55 PM

It's currently 50 degrees warmer in my refrigerator than it is on the porch.

Holy sheep shit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 07:49:11 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 14, 2021, 10:46:10 PM

Just got out of my hot tub.  Water is 99.

Solar?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 08:36:56 AM

Woke up to 15 degrees and a sea of white

looks like one of those holiday season postcards 

not supposed to get above freezing again until tomorrow afternoon

good news is we still have power and water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 08:57:22 AM

75 here right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 09:04:01 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2021, 06:04:04 PM

Now I'm in Mesquite Nevada and it's 60s with people swimming outdoors, lol.

You can join the local Polar Bear Club and do the same here.Might have to chip some ice

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 09:42:50 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 07:49:11 AM

Solar?

Nope, natural gas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 09:43:08 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 08:57:22 AM

75 here right now.

5 here right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:52:25 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 08:36:56 AM

Woke up to 15 degrees and a sea of white

looks like one of those holiday season postcards

not supposed to get above freezing again until tomorrow afternoon

good news is we still have power and water

yo Texas.  Welcome to winter.  We have this here from December 1st to March 15th.  Most times longer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:53:40 AM

it's stupid cold here, negative 26.

but, the 2010 Malibu sitting outside in the driveway started and I'm in the office.

I'm not even interested in the wind chill temp

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 09:54:47 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:53:40 AM

it's stupid cold here, negative 26.

but, the 2010 Malibu sitting outside in the driveway started and I'm in the office.

I'm not even interested in the wind chill temp

We have no infrastructure for clearing roads, so we will shelter in place until the sun melts the ice and snow.  Could be a few days.  

I've got plenty of Tito's and Live Oak so I'll be okay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on February 15, 2021, 10:02:42 AM

Many pictures on the bookface feed this morning of temperatures in the -30s. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 10:24:33 AM

I went outside with the kids to play in the snow when it was 5 degreesF this morning.  I lasted about ten minutes.  I've been on the summits of ski mountains when it was in the negative teens maybe.  But -30.  Wow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 10:35:42 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 09:54:47 AM

We have no infrastructure for clearing roads, so we will shelter in place until the sun melts the ice and snow.  Could be a few days. 

I've got plenty of Tito's and Live Oak so I'll be okay.

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s600x600/149471758_5474828039224119_6222716611194916787_o.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=z9dNcTYdLBoAX_5j_vx&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=c2326e3afbcc4856aaa05dc5f694b4e2&oe=604EA717)

From UTErin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 10:37:59 AM

43°F here and cloudy, not comfortable really, but not like Ohio either.  Not a lick of snow this year, maybe a few flakes once.

I'll be fascinated to see the text of the "climate" legislation that gets proposed.  Beyond incentives for W&S ($$$) and EVs ($$$), and maybe a bit for insulation and tax credits for this and that, I'm not sure what else it will comprise.  Carbon tax?  Maybe a small one, proposed.

Lofty language no doubt, as if this will do anything for the climate.

I'd be in favor of a serious program to replace coal plants.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 10:44:15 AM

I'd be in favor of that too.

Nuclear. Duh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 10:46:54 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:52:25 AM

yo Texas.  Welcome to winter.  We have this here from December 1st to March 15th.  Most times longer.

why I dont live there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 10:54:07 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 10:46:54 AM

why I dont live there

Exactly.


I believe I've said before, even Austin is too cold for me.  This is just proving that out...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 10:59:55 AM

I'd much rather have my lakes freeze than dry up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 11:04:01 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 10:59:55 AM

I'd much rather have my lakes freeze than dry up

Isn't it great that this is a free country and we get to make these decisions for ourselves?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 11:11:15 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 10:59:55 AM

I'd much rather have my lakes freeze than dry up

Maybe we need more dams in this country, a lot more ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 11:14:10 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 10:44:15 AM

I'd be in favor of that too.

Nuclear. Duh.

Never fear, Bill Gates is working on new nuclear

https://www.terrapower.com/people/bill-gates/ (https://www.terrapower.com/people/bill-gates/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 11:38:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 11:11:15 AM

Maybe we need more dams in this country, a lot more ....

Uh boy now you went and did it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 15, 2021, 12:31:51 PM

Nah, trolling Badge w dam talk is so 2020, hes at the pool don't ya know?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 01:02:56 PM

Some body better roll him over so he's not done too much on one side

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 01:19:42 PM

Here is my guess in broad strokes for PROPORSED CC legislation ( I don't think this would pass the Senate):

A requirement to reach X % "renewable" by 2035 (long enough out to be nonsense)
Money for poor people to insulate their homes
End to subsidies for fossil fuels (if anyone can find them at least)
Regulations on refineries (methane release etc.)
Tax credit for wealthy people to install solar and buy an EV
Maybe a carbon tax, phased in, maybe to start in 2028 or so.
Some other drivel

We had something similar about cellulosic ethanol, by now, gasoline was to be 15% ethanol coming from cellulose.  "We" just pretend we never meant it, really.  We KNEW at the time, technically, this was all tripe and hype.  I was peripherally involved and the science was not there for real production, we KNEW this, it wasn't at issue.

Cellulosic Ethanol Falling Far Short Of The Hype (forbes.com) (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/02/11/cellulosic-ethanol-falling-far-short-of-the-hype/?sh=65d8ce5b505f)

The bottom line is that cellulosic ethanol has fallen far short of the hype and the expectations. Production that has been achieved to date has come about as a result of loan guarantees -- many of which the taxpayer will have to foot when the plants go bankrupt. Production has also been the result of generous financial compensation for every gallon that was produced.
Thus, it is true that production is now growing exponentially. But what has yet to be demonstrated is that this is a viable avenue for fuel production without both plant construction and production being heavily subsidized.
It is possible to subsidize all sorts of uneconomical schemes into existence. (https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Frrapier%2F2018%2F02%2F11%2Fcellulosic-ethanol-falling-far-short-of-the-hype%2F&text=It is possible to subsidize all sorts of uneconomical schemes into existence.) I would argue that's what has happened here. Cellulosic ethanol today is largely in the same shape as cellulosic ethanol production 100 years ago. (https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Frrapier%2F2018%2F02%2F11%2Fcellulosic-ethanol-falling-far-short-of-the-hype%2F&text=Cellulosic ethanol today is largely in the same shape as cellulosic ethanol production 100 years ago.) Despite some incremental improvements in production, it is still uneconomic to produce and isn't competitive with conventional ethanol production or fossil fuels. This is an experiment that is likely to end with billions of tax dollars have been wasted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 02:22:21 PM

DES MOINES -- Gov. Kim Reynolds is proposing Iowa’s very own ethanol mandate.

The proposal has drawn unusual lines in the lobbying sand, with renewable fuels groups pitted against gas stations and at least one conservative, free market-minded advocacy organization.

Reynolds’ proposal, which she introduced in legislation on Monday, is similar in spirit to the federal ethanol mandate, which requires a certain number of gallons of corn-based ethanol be blended into the nation’s fuel supply. Reynolds’ proposal would require all gasoline sold in Iowa to contain at least 10% ethanol, with an option for the governor to raise that to 15% in four years.

The proposal also shifts existing tax credits for ethanol and other biofuels to only those with blends higher than the new baseline. That move is expected to reduce state spending, and some of those savings would be dedicated to a fund that retailers could access to help pay for equipment upgrades they would need to accommodate the new, higher-blend ethanol fuels.


https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/reynolds-proposes-state-ethanol-mandate-drawing-unusual-political-battle-lines/article_04dd35b6-ff9f-51be-b619-1c8b8fe1e888.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Sioux_City_Journal&fbclid=IwAR3dJb3gahmcZDc8fJFpWOmV9NtIfl_iGHBddwWsJznJb6A_qyqH-D_cryQ (https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/reynolds-proposes-state-ethanol-mandate-drawing-unusual-political-battle-lines/article_04dd35b6-ff9f-51be-b619-1c8b8fe1e888.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Sioux_City_Journal&fbclid=IwAR3dJb3gahmcZDc8fJFpWOmV9NtIfl_iGHBddwWsJznJb6A_qyqH-D_cryQ)

Reynolds’ proposed legislation would:

• require all gasoline in the state to include 10% ethanol, with exceptions for one pump per retailer for ethanol-free gasoline. In 2025, the governor would have the option to bump the baseline requirement to 15% ethanol.

• require all diesel fuel in the state to contain 5% biodiesel fuel from October through March and 11% from April through September. In 2024, the April through September blend requirement would increase to 20%.

• shift existing tax credits to only blends above the new minimum standards.

• require any new equipment installed in the state to be compliant with 15% ethanol or 20% biodiesel usage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 04:28:51 PM

I haven't read the full stories, but it sounds like some of the trouble with the power grid thing, from Texas to ND, is related to the wind power. The turbines are frozen and not operational.

I hope our resident Texans are OK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 04:49:32 PM

Historic winter storm freezes Texas wind turbines (statesman.com) (https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2021/02/14/historic-winter-storm-freezes-texas-wind-turbines-hampering-electric-generation/4483230001/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 04:52:31 PM

semms odd, Cincy keeps telling me wind power is less than 10%.  I'd guess not all turbines are frozen.  So, maybe 3 or 4% of the power would cause the grid to collapse?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 04:55:08 PM

Yup the wind turbines can freeze up, and what's worse is they actually REQUIRE power when they're this cold, to keep from damaging them, so not only are they NOT generating, they're actually draining energy from the grid.

Also, solar [panels are covered in snow and not generating.

Also, the natural gas pipelines are freezing up, so lots of that generating capacity is now offline.

Also, we killed off about 5 coal plants nearby, in the past 5 years, and moved a lot of that capacity to wind, solar, and natural gas.

So... well... here we are.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 04:56:54 PM

How can an NG pipeline freeze up?  valves?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 04:58:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 04:56:54 PM

How can an NG pipeline freeze up?  valves?

I haven't dug into it but yeah, I'm assuming it's valves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 04:59:49 PM

must have special "lube" for the wind mills here in the upper midwest

I can't see any of them from my office window, but I've not heard about freezing up problems in the past.  Well, not enough to knock down the grid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 05:00:11 PM

My daughter's power just came back on

She lost power about 8 this morning

Her house was 40 degrees and she had to go to her car for heat

when this is over there will be a lot of angry folks wanting to know what happened and how to avoid it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 05:01:28 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 05:00:11 PM

when this is over there will be a lot of angry folks wanting to know what happened and how to avoid it

more money spent by the government for an investigation

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 05:01:52 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 04:59:49 PM

must have special "lube" for the wind mills here in the upper midwest

I can't see any of them from my office window, but I've not heard about freezing up problems in the past.  Well, not enough to knock down the grid.

I think it's freezing rain, not snow, that does it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 05:03:45 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 04:59:49 PM

must have special "lube" for the wind mills here in the upper midwest

I can't see any of them from my office window, but I've not heard about freezing up problems in the past.  Well, not enough to knock down the grid.

This is a once-in-a-generation kind of event, they just don't mitigate risks for extreme corner-cases like this.

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 05:00:11 PM

My daughter's power just came back on

She lost power about 8 this morning

Her house was 40 degrees and she had to go to her car for heat

when this is over there will be a lot of angry folks wanting to know what happened and how to avoid it

See my response above.

For me, the only real problem that could have been avoided with some planning, is the "rolling blackouts" that haven't rolled at all.  Some people (including Bald Greg) have been without power since 2 AM.  Some people (like me) haven't lost power at all.  That's a failure in planning, execution, or both, that could have been avoided and should be corrected.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 05:05:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 05:01:52 PM

I think it's freezing rain, not snow, that does it.

believe it or not, we get our fair share of freezing rain and sleet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 05:05:15 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 05:01:28 PM

more money spent by the government for an investigation

youre right 

better not spend any money trying to keep this from happening again

lets just sit on our hands and complain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 05:06:49 PM

well, y'all might not get weather like this again for 100 years

by then whatever money spent "wasted" on the investigation and cure, might be obsolete and unless

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 05:07:32 PM

especially if the average temp increases by 5 degrees in the next century

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 05:09:42 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 05:06:49 PM

well, y'all might not get weather like this again for 100 years

by then whatever money spent "wasted" on the investigation and cure, might be obsolete and unless

I assume there are NG pipelines running to power plants in the north that DON'T freeze up.  We should probably investigate why, and see if something can be done-- within reasonable cost-- to help ourselves out there. 

Same thing for the lubrication.  Wind power generation happens all over this country, and numerous others, in cold conditions.  Is there a reasonable way to address this?

But the real thing I'd work on, is a plan for correctly and efficiently conducting rolling blackouts.  Because that's not something that JUST happens in extreme cold, it can also happen in extreme heat, which we get quite a bit of down here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 05:22:05 PM

I think it's freezing rain, or just rain that gets into bad spots on the turbines and then freezes.  I know in Germany they power them up to keep them rotating when the wind dies down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 05:24:46 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p552x414/150144161_1328956840810426_4110656874011837329_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=XRqwS8Nve0sAX8yOfXn&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=94e214a54a0426a10da1f23fc979aa80&oe=60518CE2)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 05:27:24 PM

We're getting thunder now.

Lightning too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 06:10:41 PM

Bright sunshine here.  Melted all the ice that had formed in my pool.

of course clear skies means it's going to get really, really cold tonight.  Forecast low of 7, which isn't as bad as the 5 we hit last night, I suppose.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 06:27:31 PM

clear and sunny here

almost made it up to 10 below

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 06:28:00 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 06:27:31 PM

clear and sunny here

almost made it up to 10 below

Nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 15, 2021, 06:29:08 PM

Just sent the kids outside to play. 

It's a bit brisk (60 degrees), so it was long pants and long sleeves. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 06:32:16 PM

smashed the record low for this date this morning - record from 1936

back when the AP poll was born

Minnesota and Northwestern were both very good that year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 07:07:40 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 15, 2021, 06:29:08 PM

Just sent the kids outside to play.

It's a bit brisk (60 degrees), so it was long pants and long sleeves.

I am normally one of the ones that gets to post this.

Pretty sure I'll be moving to Southern California very soon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 07:08:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 06:32:16 PM

smashed the record low for this date this morning - record from 1936

back when the AP poll was born

Minnesota and Northwestern were both very good that year

Yeah I'll bet Army was really the bees' knees too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 15, 2021, 07:09:04 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 07:07:40 PM

I am normally one of the ones that gets to post this.

Pretty sure I'll be moving to Southern California very soon.

Great place to live if you're a millionaire!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 07:19:06 PM

utee is a rich arrogant Texan

money is not the issue

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 07:25:00 PM

I could live in CA technically, but most of my "wealth" is pretax (IRA), and converting it with CA taxes would be problematic.

So we live here and travel to there when we are able.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 07:37:25 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 07:19:06 PM

utee is a rich arrogant Texan

money is not the issue

If my power goes out tonight, I'll just burn fat stacks of hundys to keep warm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 07:41:04 PM

I will admit though, I can't help but wonder how Michael Dell and his estate are faring through all of this.  I'm assuming that he has his entire compound set up with complete UPS and multiply redundant back-up generators.  Because now more than ever, with COVID shutting down the vast majority of our offices, he's running a $100 billion company from his home.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 07:42:09 PM

They make nice computers, I like mine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 07:46:22 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 07:42:09 PM

They make nice computers, I like mine.

Glad you like it.  At last count I think I have... 7...  Dell computers operating amongst my household.  And a crap-ton of cool monitors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 07:49:23 PM

The wife bought a new Apple laptop a couple year back because her son said they were easy to use.  Next thing I know she enrolled in some course on how to use an Apple computer.  She was already computer savvy, but apparently it was complicated.

I was mystified.  Mine new one had a couple of things I didn't understand at first but it got sorted out.

I've used Apples before myself.  Over priced in my opinion, but I own a good bit of Apple stock and the Stepson works there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 08:14:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 15, 2021, 07:46:22 PM

Glad you like it.  At last count I think I have... 7...  Dell computers operating amongst my household.  And a crap-ton of cool monitors.

no wonder the grid is overloaded!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 15, 2021, 08:59:24 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 08:14:32 PM

no wonder the grid is overloaded!!!

yep I suspect utee works for the CIA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:33:13 PM

and his boss, Michael Dell and his estate, have a MUCH larger carbon footprint than us poor dirt farmers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 15, 2021, 09:54:46 PM

Speaking of power I read the bitcoin is a major drain on electricity and waste. This is not something I understand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 10:55:25 PM

all that electronic mining

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 12:43:32 AM

They get stuck in slot machines which in turn short circuit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 07:07:57 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/jKelgPq.png)

How much do you guess a "climate bill" or program would reduce our net CO2 output over time, versus the "no bill" situation?

That should be calculable if we knew what was in some climate bill (I took a guess earlier).  What would you like to see in said bill, if you want one?  And how much difference would it make by 2030 or 2040 or even 2050 versus the null case scenario?

Say we're now at 400 million metric tons.  Note that even the COVID shut downs were a minor blip.

COVID curbed carbon emissions in 2020 — but not by much (nature.com) (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00090-3)

(https://i.imgur.com/wARz5UK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 07:09:05 AM

Record CO2 emissions drop in 2020 won't do much to halt climate change | New Scientist (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2262513-record-co2-emissions-drop-in-2020-wont-do-much-to-halt-climate-change/)

A record 7 per cent drop in global carbon emissions this year will make no difference to long-term climate change, say researchers.

The annual Global Carbon Budget report found covid-19 lockdowns reversed years of emissions rising worldwide (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2225543-global-carbon-emissions-up-0-6-per-cent-as-oil-and-gas-grow-in-2019/), with France and the UK experiencing the steepest drops due to their long-lasting restrictions, at 15 and 13 per cent respectively.

Globally, the burning of fossil fuels released 34.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2020, down 2.3 billion tonnes on last year, the Global Carbon Budget team found (https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/). The biggest fall was the 0.84 billion tonnes of CO₂ drop from transport, especially road traffic, with a steep dive in April when many countries had imposed limits on travel. After April, global emissions began recovering towards pre-pandemic heights.

Team member Pierre Friedlingstein at the University of Exeter, UK, says we risk a repeat of the rebound in emissions after the 2009 financial crash. “The drop in 2020 alone, compared to what is accumulating in the atmosphere to now and what will continue to accumulate in the future, it would make no difference in the long run. To make a difference, this trend needs to be continued.”

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2262513-record-co2-emissions-drop-in-2020-wont-do-much-to-halt-climate-change/#ixzz6mdSnvEXW (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2262513-record-co2-emissions-drop-in-2020-wont-do-much-to-halt-climate-change/#ixzz6mdSnvEXW)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 07:16:28 AM

This is my on going point, it's not really subject to debate.  We KNOW this, we just pretend that ignoring it will be fine.  I see no point in pretending some sort of "climate legislation" will really work, here or anywhere else.  It's past time to face hard realities.

Global CO2 emissions to drop 4-7% in 2020, but will it matter? (phys.org) (https://phys.org/news/2020-05-global-co2-emissions-.html)

Under the 2015 Paris climate (https://phys.org/tags/climate/) treaty, nearly 200 nations pledged to cap global warming at "well below" 2C.

But the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) subsequently determined that 1.5C is a far safer temperature guardrail.

The pandemic has underscored just how difficult it will be to hit that more ambitious target.

Emissions must fall 7.6 percent—in line with the worst-case lockdown scenario for 2020—every year this decade to ensure the 1.5C cap, unless other means are found to remove carbon from the atmosphere, scientists calculate.

"The pandemic has shown us that major structural changes in the transport and energy systems are required," noted Mark Maslin, a professor of climatology at University College London.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 07:41:16 AM

Global CO2 emissions 2018-2050

Published by Ian Tiseo (https://www.statista.com/aboutus/our-research-commitment), Oct 7, 2020

(https://www.statista.com/statistics/263980/forecast-of-global-carbon-dioxide-emissions/#statisticContainer) Based on a business-as-usual trend, global carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to increase to some 43.08 billion metric tons in 2050, in comparison to 35.3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2018. Carbon dioxide emissions reached its highest level in 2018  (https://www.statista.com/statistics/526002/energy-related-carbon-dioxide-emissions-worldwide/)due to a strong economy and extreme weather conditions. Summers with heatwaves push air conditioning usage and harsher winters lead to more heating. A booming economy has a greater thirst for energy than one that is struggling or even in recession.


So, what legislation is going to cut this SIGNIFICANTLY?  Time to understand reality instead of fairy tales.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 07:48:06 AM

Emissions go higher and higher.  It looks well past time to admit that the do nothing approach is simply a fairy tale that never worked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 07:49:45 AM

The do something approach is futile, and expensive obviously, but some here stick their heads in the sand and pretend otherwise.

I think we should deal with reality, not goals and conferences and fairy tales, this is just simple math.

Politicians like to sell fairy tales because it enables them to waste more money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 07:53:00 AM

I just have to shake my head and laugh at the idea that there is nothing we can do.  There are almost limitless approaches we could take given the we know what the main issue is and how to mitigate it.  But we have been sold so many fairy tales that there is nothing you can do, and people eat it up because doing something requires effort and doing nothing requires, well, nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2021, 07:54:15 AM

Nuke China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 07:57:32 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 07:53:00 AM

I just have to shake my head and laugh at the idea that there is nothing we can do.  There are almost limitless approaches we could take given the we know what the main issue is and how to mitigate it.  But we have been sold so many fairy tales that there is nothing you can do, and people eat it up because doing something requires effort and doing nothing requires, well, nothing.

You say this, and then offer zero detail.  I backed up my position with many credible links and hard data.

What do you offer?

Vague aphorisms and platitudes, and zero information.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 08:08:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 07:57:32 AM

You say this, and then offer zero detail.  I backed up my position with many credible links and hard data.

What do you offer?

Vague aphorisms and platitudes, and zero information.

I just don't want to rehash the same things to be told they won't be read and won't be followed.  The issue isn't lack of options, it is political will to do anything about it.  The United States can't even agree there is an issue at all, and the nature of environmental policy means everyone has to get more or less on the same page to tackle a problem.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 08:15:33 AM

Ergo, you have nothing, as usual, but platitudes and complaints about how folks deny there is a problem.  

I think it's time to face reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2021, 08:19:08 AM

We all know there is a problem. There doesn't appear to be any truly viable solutions - particularly when you consider China and India will do nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 08:22:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 08:15:33 AM

Ergo, you have nothing, as usual, but platitudes and complaints about how folks deny there is a problem. 

I think it's time to face reality.

LOL yeah the "reality" that there is nothing that can be done despite knowing there are many things that can be done.   

In any event, back in reality, all runaway environmental issues tend to come from the same place.  That is the cost of polluting is cheaper (or in this case free) so there is no economic sense for people to choose not to pollute.  All of the costs are sent down the road to pay later (and hopefully by someone else).  So the solution has to revolve around imposing costs on polluting.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 08:27:14 AM

What is one significant thing that practicably could be done in the US that would have a large impact on the CO2 numbers I've shown?

The math is hard.  Time to face reality, instead of vague platitudes.

Where is a plan?  What is the cost and benefit?  Hand waving doesn't impress me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 08:57:45 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 11:14:10 AM

Never fear, Bill Gates is working on new nuclear

https://www.terrapower.com/people/bill-gates/ (https://www.terrapower.com/people/bill-gates/)

Bill Gates doesn't think it's useless obviously, because he's pumping some of his own money into it.

He's covering all bases (nuclear, solar, wind, pulling CO2 out of the air)  and thinks it's maybe possible to have a positive affect.

"Without innovation, we will not solve climate change. We won't even come close," Gates says.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-gates-climate-change-disaster-60-minutes-2021-02-14/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-gates-climate-change-disaster-60-minutes-2021-02-14/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:00:01 AM

It is "maybe possible" to have a positive effect, it's just not going to be nearly enough to hit goals or seriously diminish the issue.

The math is pretty clear and simple.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 09:10:49 AM

Gates goals might not be as far fetched.  Or he could just be trying to pump money into his bank account.

I like and understand the idea of preparing for the inevitable, but perhaps some things can be done with a cost benefit or decent ROI 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:19:34 AM

Without innovation, we can't solve climate change.

That is what I've been posting here, repeatedly.  So, what innovation is on the horizon somewhere? Nuclear fusion?  That seems at best 50 years off from real production of power.  Wind mill and solar cell efficiencies are nearing theoretical limits.  Battery tech is getting better, bit by bit.

We need real solutions, not someday imaginary ones.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 09:26:52 AM

Saving money drives innovation. The difficulty with fossil fuels is precisely that they are cheap and easy. Without attaching costs to carbon polluting, there is little reason to innovate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 09:36:55 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 07:53:00 AM

I just have to shake my head and laugh at the idea that there is nothing we can do.  There are almost limitless approaches we could take given the we know what the main issue is and how to mitigate it.  But we have been sold so many fairy tales that there is nothing you can do, and people eat it up because doing something requires effort and doing nothing requires, well, nothing.

Good Point - I remember 60 Minutes interviewing some European guy who during WWII hid then transported many Jewish & displaced people along with other enemies of the Reich - thousands.Right under the Gestapo's noses with great risk/danger to himself.He simply said "If something isn't impossible then there must be a way to do it" 

 With that being said I suppose from an ecological/economical/political standpoint we need to stop half assing and dicking around.But if other large countries China/Russia/India for instance don't actually put some skin in the game then hamstringing ourselves beyond reason makes no sense

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:45:39 AM

We can all dream of course, and claim there are substantial practicable steps that could be taken, without listing any.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 09:45:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:19:34 AM

We need real solutions, not someday imaginary ones.

I actually think nuclear could help but there's always glitches.Solar makes sense if there was a practical way to harness it effectively.Scientists have opined that the SUN burns more energy in one second than Earth could/would use in it's entire duration

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:54:24 AM

Nuclear would be a significant solution, but is impracticable.  It's not going to happen on any scale in the US.

However much energy the sun generates is irrelevant.  Of course the amount is enormous.

If we invested in replacing every coal fired plant with a nuclear plant, it would put a fair sized dent in our CO2 production in a year (after they come on line).  We're not doing that though.  And by "fair sized", it's 20% of our generating capacity and about 30% of CO2 FROM said generating capacity, might be a 5% reduction in total US CO2 production.  But, it's not happening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 09:58:55 AM

Swing low, sweet chariot
Coming for to carry me home
Swing low, sweet chariot
Coming for to carry he home 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2021, 10:15:45 AM

Carbon tax designed to be revenue neutral offsetting perhaps a portion of the payroll tax.

It won't "solve the problem" but it's a good hard nudge in the right direction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 10:16:47 AM

Carbon capture and storage: Fundamental thermodynamics and current technology - ScienceDirect (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421508005776)

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered a leading technology for reducing CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuelled electricity generation plants and could permit the continued use of coal and gas whilst meeting greenhouse gas targets. However considerable energy is required for the capture, compression, transport and storage steps involved. In this paper, energy penalty information in the literature is reviewed, and thermodynamically ideal and “real world” energy penalty values are calculated. For a sub-critical pulverized coal (PC) plant, the energy penalty values for 100% capture are 48.6% and 43.5% for liquefied CO₂, and for CO₂ compressed to 11 MPa, respectively. When assumptions for supercritical plants were incorporated, results were in broad agreement with published values arising from process modelling. However, we show that energy use in existing capture operations is considerably greater than indicated by most projections. Full CCS demonstration plants are now required to verify modelled energy penalty values. However, it appears unlikely that CCS will deliver significant CO₂ reductions in a timely fashion. In addition, many uncertainties remain over the permanence of CO₂ storage, either in geological formations, or beneath the ocean. We conclude that further investment in CCS should be seriously questioned by policy makers.

Economic and energetic analysis of capturing CO2 from ambient air | PNAS (https://www.pnas.org/content/108/51/20428)

Our empirical analyses of operating commercial processes suggest that the energetic and financial costs of capturing CO₂ from the air are likely to have been underestimated. Specifically, our analysis of existing gas separation systems suggests that, unless air capture significantly outperforms these systems, it is likely to require more than 400 kJ of work per mole of CO₂, requiring it to be powered by CO₂-neutral power sources in order to be CO₂ negative. We estimate that total system costs of an air capture system will be on the order of $1,000 per tonne of CO₂, based on experience with as-built large-scale trace gas removal systems.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 16, 2021, 10:22:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:33:13 PM

and his boss, Michael Dell and his estate, have a MUCH larger carbon footprint than us poor dirt farmers

How far is the nearest worm farm? 



(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/02/Sports/Images/SP-TERPS-031470110713.jpg?uuid=WDb_AlhmEeaLSAyzRCIRMQ)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 16, 2021, 10:26:13 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2021, 07:54:15 AM

Nuke China.

(https://i.pinimg.com/474x/87/9c/cf/879ccff44ae66a0f3fdcf816059f7cf5.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 16, 2021, 10:33:14 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 09:58:55 AM

Swing low, sweet chariot
Coming for to carry me home
Swing low, sweet chariot
Coming for to carry he home

(https://i.imgur.com/mHeb9qP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 10:34:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:54:24 AM

Nuclear would be a significant solution, but is impracticable.  It's not going to happen on any scale in the US.

Well there's always the chance of a Fukushima like problem looming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 10:35:36 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 16, 2021, 10:26:13 AM

(https://i.pinimg.com/474x/87/9c/cf/879ccff44ae66a0f3fdcf816059f7cf5.jpg)

That's suppose to be Nuke the Gay Whales

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 10:50:07 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/SOw7d7J.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 11:09:53 AM

We've got at least 7" of climate change outside going to plow as it's decided to pick up steam again

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on February 16, 2021, 11:35:33 AM

Fossil fuel consumption was down in 2020 due to the pandemic.  I’m curious to see if there is a corresponding inflection in the rise in atmospheric CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 11:35:53 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2021, 10:15:45 AM

Carbon tax designed to be revenue neutral offsetting perhaps a portion of the payroll tax.

It won't "solve the problem" but it's a good hard nudge in the right direction.

Care to develop that thought further?  How high would it have to be to begin to diminish fossil fuel usage?


(1) The carbon tax is going up. Here’s how much more you could pay at the pumps | Globalnews.ca (https://globalnews.ca/news/7515981/canada-climate-change-plan-justin-trudeau/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 11:36:32 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on February 16, 2021, 11:35:33 AM

Fossil furl consumption was down in 2020 due to the pandemic.  I’m curious to see if there is a corresponding inflection in the rise in atmospheric CO2.

The drop was pretty small really, 4-7%, not enough to change the slope of CO2 measurements.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2021, 12:11:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 11:35:53 AM

Care to develop that thought further?  How high would it have to be to begin to diminish fossil fuel usage?


(1) The carbon tax is going up. Here’s how much more you could pay at the pumps | Globalnews.ca (https://globalnews.ca/news/7515981/canada-climate-change-plan-justin-trudeau/)

I don't know about the numbers. We fleshed this out several months ago and it seemed clear that the carbon tax to completely offset the entire payroll tax would be so high as to be impossible. So you need a smaller number.

But the key of it is that it's designed for simplicity. As a general rule, taxing things make them more expensive and thus means you'll get less of them. In this case, we are taxing employment which will ostensibly reduce it (dumb) while not taxing CO2 output which is something we want to reduce (also dumb). 

Ideally if you reduce taxes on employment, you'll either get more employment, or wages will rise so that money goes into the workers pocket, or the money gets returned to shareholders as corporate earnings.

Ideally if you increase taxes on CO2 output, you'll see reduced CO2 output because it makes every CO2 alternative relatively cheaper, or even if you don't have substitutes the raised cost will cause people to think more about their consumption and perhaps just reduce non-essential energy usage. 

As I said, I don't think it will reduce CO2 output enough to make a difference. But it's a lot smarter to increase the price of CO2 output while reducing the price of labor. Tax what you want less of. Don't tax what you want more of.

Maybe it doesn't solve climate change, but it's a lot smarter than how we're taxing now. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 12:18:22 PM

Quote from: Temp430 on February 16, 2021, 11:35:33 AM

Fossil fuel consumption was down in 2020 due to the pandemic.  I’m curious to see if there is a corresponding inflection in the rise in atmospheric CO2.

and it caused a slight increase of the world's temp because the sun hit the earth instead of the smog

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 12:21:38 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 11:09:53 AM

We've got at least 7" of climate change outside going to plow as it's decided to pick up steam again

sending record low temps your way

-27 this morning, broke the record low of -25 set back in 1936.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 16, 2021, 12:41:01 PM

we are almost done with this cold snap

over 2,000,000 have no power

lets build more wind turbines 

Texas has huge natural gas and oil deposits and we are screwing around with wind turbines

I guess that just shows that sooner or later we will all get what we deserve

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2021, 12:51:26 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 16, 2021, 12:41:01 PM

I guess that just shows that sooner or later we will all get what we deserve

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and they deserve to get it good and hard.
-H.L. Mencken

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 12:53:00 PM

apparently, your natural gas wells froze up

my power company, owned by Buffet, has asked us to conserve natural gas because of frozen wells, but not electricity.

I'm guessing if 2 million Texans are not consuming electricity there is plenty of capacity on the grid for a few Iowans

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 16, 2021, 12:57:25 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 12:53:00 PM

apparently, your natural gas wells froze up

my power company, owned by Buffet, has asked us to conserve natural gas because of frozen wells, but not electricity.

I'm guessing if 2 million Texans are not consuming electricity there is plenty of capacity on the grid for a few Iowans

just live off your cow farts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on February 16, 2021, 01:05:44 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:19:34 AM

Without innovation, we can't solve climate change.

That is what I've been posting here, repeatedly.  So, what innovation is on the horizon somewhere? Nuclear fusion?  That seems at best 50 years off from real production of power.  Wind mill and solar cell efficiencies are nearing theoretical limits.  Battery tech is getting better, bit by bit.

We need real solutions, not someday imaginary ones.

And the answer is "we can't solve climate change". The Earths climate is in a constant state of change. It has and always will be that way. Why do we think that mankind has any power to change that? The climate is mainly influenced by the Sun. Any carbon that we produce (or more correctly, release) is absorbed by those things that grow tall and have a bunch of leaves on them, along with other plants. 

All this talk about reducing our carbon footprint is nothing but a power grab by the wealthy and those elected to serve them. If you want to know about the push to solve climate change, just follow the money. Al Gore and John Kerry have made millions from it, but they will still continue to fleece anyone willing to send money their way. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 02:16:55 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 11:09:53 AM

We've got at least 7" of climate change outside going to plow as it's decided to pick up steam again

Wrong between 8"-13.6" avg at a little over 11" - yardstick on the flat drive method

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 04:23:53 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p180x540/132275797_10158769978692911_4618165348232223517_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=hUjF2jNMFW8AX8P6RXK&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=be2baa760c0ec8a086c07971f845ea2a&oe=6052AE16)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2021, 09:10:49 AM

Gonna be 81 here today. Yesterday was a chilly 72.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 17, 2021, 09:23:22 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/SoCxH2U.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2021, 10:38:54 AM

I think "we" could address adding more CO2 to the air, in the US anyway, but only with nuclear, and then whatever addon one can get from W&S.

It's the only thing that would make a difference fast enough.  Innovation is great but unpredictable.  Carbon capture looks like a losing concept to me.  Entropy and all that.

W&S may be fine but it's not happening nearly fast enough and the supply is intermittent.

The Texas debacle is not solely due to W&S though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 17, 2021, 10:45:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 17, 2021, 10:38:54 AM

I think "we" could address adding more CO2 to the air, in the US anyway, but only with nuclear, and then whatever addon one can get from W&S.

It's the only thing that would make a difference fast enough.  Innovation is great but unpredictable.  Carbon capture looks like a losing concept to me.  Entropy and all that.

W&S may be fine but it's not happening nearly fast enough and the supply is intermittent.

The Texas debacle is not solely due to W&S though.

Thats correct


what bothers us Texans is not that we lost power due to a freak storm but the fact we cant restore power

and they cant even tell us when it will be restored

the public is being kept in the dark on this

lots of real mad Texans right now

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 17, 2021, 11:19:12 AM

The Texans can simply shoot up all of the windmills and solar panels with their vast arsenal of firearms. 

Then they will have no choice but to return to fossil fuels. O0

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2021, 11:24:28 AM

One reactor at a nuke plant tripped and went off line, apparently weather related.

Some NG plants had problems with instruments and the cold.

A coal fired plant had issues.

The story here isn't going to comport to what either side wants to believe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 17, 2021, 11:32:45 AM

Yeah, but that's just a bunch of egghead stuff. 

It is all about leveraging public perception among the unwashed masses here. :098:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 17, 2021, 11:53:25 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 17, 2021, 11:32:45 AM

Yeah, but that's just a bunch of egghead stuff.

It is all about leveraging public perception among the unwashed masses here. :098:

We have closed 5 coal powered plants in the last few years

Hopefully the state leaders will fix this

right now wind and solar only account for 14% of our power generation so thats not the whole problem

another problem is the Texas power grid is a stand alone grid not connected to any other grid in the country

which means we are unable to borrow excess power from another grid

all this needs to be looked at and solutions arrived at

Texas has a track record of solving its problems and this will be solved also

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 17, 2021, 02:01:39 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2021, 09:10:49 AM

Gonna be 81 here today. Yesterday was a chilly 72.

It got above freezing for the first time in almost a week, this morning.  It was 33 for a couple hours.  Now it's down to 28 and that's about as good as it's going to get.

Everybody should move to Florida.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 09:28:11 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 17, 2021, 02:01:39 PM

It got above freezing for the first time in almost a week, this morning.  It was 33 for a couple hours.  Now it's down to 28 and that's about as good as it's going to get.

Everybody should move to Florida.

Seems like everyone IS moving here, based on all the new construction.

Last year at this time, there were 50+ houses available in our development. Now there are 3, and they will probably be gone in a matter of days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2021, 01:12:19 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 09:28:11 AM

Seems like everyone IS moving here, based on all the new construction.

Last year at this time, there were 50+ houses available in our development. Now there are 3, and they will probably be gone in a matter of days.

I just bought the last one.  I'll be your neighbor by the end of next week.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 02:06:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 18, 2021, 01:12:19 PM

I just bought the last one.  I'll be your neighbor by the end of next week.

now if we could just get a couple million more to do that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 02:45:42 PM

I don't see any Texas plates here. I see California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois quite a lot. I hope they don't screw us up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 18, 2021, 04:10:23 PM

Texas should have succeeded when they had their chance 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 04:11:29 PM

Florida too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 04:36:56 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 18, 2021, 04:10:23 PM

Texas should have succeeded when they had their chance

we're gettin closer every day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2021, 04:50:23 PM

Mini ice age? Why the Sun is set to lose 7% of its power - Big Think (https://bigthink.com/news/the-solar-minimum-is-coming-in-about-30-years-what-will-it-do)

Interesting, some claim climate change is a far greater influence than this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 18, 2021, 05:51:00 PM

So sell my solar energy stocks?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 18, 2021, 05:59:56 PM

Eventually all of the stars will burn out, and everything will be dark and frozen. 

So enjoy this heat while it lasts. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2021, 08:25:05 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 04:11:29 PM

Florida too.

(https://i.imgur.com/GMelYbx.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on February 19, 2021, 07:00:37 AM

I'm reading most of Texas' wind farms froze up about a week ago and when natural gas and coal generation could not make up the 23% from wind farms and the increased demand due to the cold the rolling blackouts began.  Is this an accurate assessment?  Also read Texas skimped on winterizing it's wind turbines which lead to the problem?  Painful lesson if true.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 19, 2021, 07:06:09 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on February 19, 2021, 07:00:37 AM

I'm reading most of Texas' wind farms froze up about a week ago and when natural gas and coal generation could not make up the 23% from wind farms and the increased demand due to the cold the rolling blackouts began.  Is this an accurate assessment?  Also read Texas skimped on winterizing it's wind turbines which lead to the problem?  Painful lesson if true.

I don't think so.  It sounds to me like a lack of winterizing affected nearly every part of their power generating structure.  Wind and solar were affected but were a minor part of the problem.  Nuclear and natural gas plants were more affected.  Also, Texas has their own power grid, so that big drop in power threw everything out of whack.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 08:43:57 AM

yes, not regulated by the Feds, but also not connected to other neighboring grids, so couldn't borrow power when needed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 08:55:17 AM

You think all of those rich clean energy advocates are w/o a gas generator back up?We had another 2.6" yesterday,snow plows didn't bother- on top of the 11"-12" we received a few days back,on top of what hasn't melted for a month.Cold but cheerful.Brother and his buddies wussing out in the Western Basin,trying to talk my nephew and his auger to come out and play but have to convince his wife 1st

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 19, 2021, 09:02:20 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 08:55:17 AM

You think all of those rich clean energy advocates are w/o a gas generator back up?We had another 2.6" yesterday,snow plows didn't bother- on top of the 11"-12" we received a few days back,on top of what hasn't melted for a month.Cold but cheerful.Brother and his buddies wussing out in the Western Basin,trying to talk my nephew and his auger to come out and play but have to convince his wife 1st

Dang. Is that just "lake effect" or is the entire state up to their eyeballs in snow? 

I know some schools actually tried to sell it. 


https://twitter.com/miamiuniversity/status/1361666904725868548?s=20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 09:07:08 AM

Once the Lake is even remotely frozen N.Ohio gets caned by Old Man Winter.Last I heard it's over 80%.Perhaps even a little less snow but freakin' c-c-c-cold

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 09:10:31 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 18, 2021, 05:59:56 PM

Eventually all of the stars will burn out, and everything will be dark and frozen.

So enjoy this heat while it lasts.

Stop trying to cheer us up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 09:18:55 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 09:07:08 AM

Once the Lake is even remotely frozen N.Ohio gets caned by Old Man Winter.Last I heard it's over 80%.Perhaps even a little less snow but freakin' c-c-c-cold

polar vortex moving out of Iowa
headed your way

going out to start the car this morning with the mercury hovering around zero, felt not too awful

hell, 28 degrees warmer than a couple mornings ago 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2021, 09:32:37 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on February 19, 2021, 07:00:37 AM

I'm reading most of Texas' wind farms froze up about a week ago and when natural gas and coal generation could not make up the 23% from wind farms and the increased demand due to the cold the rolling blackouts began.  Is this an accurate assessment?  Also read Texas skimped on winterizing it's wind turbines which lead to the problem?  Painful lesson if true.

They skimped on winterizing all the power sources because it costs money to manage a 30 year event.  One of four nuclear power reactors went off line, it's not clear why.  NG sources had issues with instruments and valves freezing.  There aren't many coal plants left, they could have helped.  And as noted, they are an isolated grid, a large grid, but isolated.

Wind power this time of year probably only provides 15% or so to the grid normally.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 19, 2021, 09:38:24 AM

Nevada has a lot of wind and solar farms. The solar farms can look like lakes from a distance if the Sun is hitting them just right. The windmills always look like they are barely moving. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2021, 09:46:27 AM

The wind mills usually have constant speed "props" and turn at the same rate in any wind above threshhold and below max.  That is a more efficient design.

The tips are going really fast and you don't want the tips moving too fast, causes sound issues.  The larger the blades the slower they will turn.

The pitch on the props is constantly adjusting to keep the rotational speed constant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 19, 2021, 09:52:21 AM

Interesting. Yeah, I noticed the tips were hauling. If you were tied to one, your brains would be going into your feet. 

It seems that there is always one windmill out there somewhere that isn't spinning at all. So they must breakdown somewhat regularly. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2021, 09:52:57 AM

So, what is KNOWN about climate change?

1.  CO2 levels are rising rather quickly, from about 280 back in the day to over 400 ppm and climbing.  This is a fact.
2.  The additional CO2 is almost all due to burning fossil fuels, also a fact, determined by isotopic analysis of the carbon.
3.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas, if there were none in the atmosphere, the planet would be a lot colder.

Then one gets into models about how much the additional CO2 is warming the climate.  I've tried to read a number of papers on this aspect and it gets really complex quickly.  The models are based on some best guesses about influences, the CO2 influence ALONE is calculable and pretty minor.  However, a slight increase in temperature changes things like ice coverage and albedo, and that generates other warming influences.  Modelers take what is thought to be the temperature history of the planet since say 1880 and devise a model to explain what was already seen.  This is why we have so many different models that arrive at basically the same prediction.  There is no other way to do it.

There is a problem here that Judith Curry goes into at some length, but it's useful to start with what is KNOWN, items 1-3.

We'll no  doubt see some proposed climate legislation and it will be fun to watch what the MIT climate group has to say about how much it would fix climate change over time.  It won't be much, at all.  They plug in the reduction in predicted CO2 generated into the models and calculate how much that will change projected temperatures decades out, the change will be very very minor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2021, 09:55:02 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 19, 2021, 09:52:21 AM

It seems that there is always one windmill out there somewhere that isn't spinning at all. So they must breakdown somewhat regularly.

I was near an older wind farm in California a few years back and counted.  Out of 50 of them, 11 were not turning, and 8 of those were dilapidated, obviously nonfunctional.  I asked someone about this and he said "It's cheaper with tax breaks to build a new one than fix an old one, so the old ones just stand abandoned.  There was no fund set aside back when to pay to haul them off."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 10:29:48 AM

Ya know the folks that attempt to sell that narrative,feel good about themselves then walk away."hey it was up to snuff when we left - stick to our blue print we have it all figured out".These are the same guys that know there is money in the bank because they still have cheques left.Heaven help us

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 11:07:34 AM

this obviously happens when the government throws money at something

investors/entrepreneurs do just enough to qualify to collect the cash, then run off to the next money making thing - short term view

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 12:18:22 PM

MARCUS, Iowa -- Little Sioux Corn Processors has forged a deal with an Iowa-based agri-business as part of a plan to develop the world's largest carbon dioxide capture and storage project.

Summit Carbon Solutions, a unit of Alden, Iowa-based Summit Agriculture Group, said Thursday it is partnering with a select group of leading biorefiners in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota to execute the first phase of its project, which the company says will put them on the path of ultimately delivering a net-zero-carbon fuel.

The company said it's proceeding with initial engineering, design and permitting associated with the project, which will permanently store carbon dioxide deep underground in saline geologic formations.

In a news release, Little Sioux Corn Processors said its partnership with Summit will capture and deposit 445,000 of tons annually of carbon, dramatically lowering the biorefinery's carbon footprint.


https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/northwest-iowa-ethanol-plant-joins-large-scale-project-to-capture-and-store-carbon/article_a222ee6c-c4ee-5c4e-941b-57a04d6c05a5.html (https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/northwest-iowa-ethanol-plant-joins-large-scale-project-to-capture-and-store-carbon/article_a222ee6c-c4ee-5c4e-941b-57a04d6c05a5.html)

When fully developed, Summit said it will have an infrastructure network capable of capturing and permanently storing more than 10 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, which is equivalent to taking 2 million cars off the road per year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 01:12:56 PM

Looks good in print whole different animal to prove and implement - I hope it's right BTW

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:36:42 PM

So, I guess we are back in the Paris Agreement. this is funny, because

Paris courts find French government guilty of not upholding commitment to Paris Agreement | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/paris-courts-find-french-government-guilty-of-not-upholding-commitment-to-paris-agreement)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 01:41:27 PM

will there be a significant penalty?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 01:46:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 19, 2021, 09:52:57 AM

So, what is KNOWN about climate change?

1.  CO2 levels are rising rather quickly, from about 280 back in the day to over 400 ppm and climbing.  This is a fact.
2.  The additional CO2 is almost all due to burning fossil fuels, also a fact, determined by isotopic analysis of the carbon.
3.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas, if there were none in the atmosphere, the planet would be a lot colder.

Then one gets into models about how much the additional CO2 is warming the climate.  I've tried to read a number of papers on this aspect and it gets really complex quickly.  The models are based on some best guesses about influences, the CO2 influence ALONE is calculable and pretty minor.  However, a slight increase in temperature changes things like ice coverage and albedo, and that generates other warming influences.  Modelers take what is thought to be the temperature history of the planet since say 1880 and devise a model to explain what was already seen.  This is why we have so many different models that arrive at basically the same prediction.  There is no other way to do it.

There is a problem here that Judith Curry goes into at some length, but it's useful to start with what is KNOWN, items 1-3.

We'll no  doubt see some proposed climate legislation and it will be fun to watch what the MIT climate group has to say about how much it would fix climate change over time.  It won't be much, at all.  They plug in the reduction in predicted CO2 generated into the models and calculate how much that will change projected temperatures decades out, the change will be very very minor.

if there was no CO2 in the atmosphere the planet would not have plants mainly trees and thus there would be minimal animal life on land

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 01:47:38 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:36:42 PM

So, I guess we are back in the Paris Agreement. this is funny, because

Paris courts find French government guilty of not upholding commitment to Paris Agreement | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/paris-courts-find-french-government-guilty-of-not-upholding-commitment-to-paris-agreement)

the Paris agreement has never been ratified by Congress

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 02:02:21 PM

wouldn't matter

it's all just Burfle 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2021, 02:55:54 PM

The Paris Agreement in my view is just some feel good paperwork.  And, no, it's not a treaty, so it doesn't obligate us to do anything.

But, it makes people feel good about us, that is its sole purpose in my view.  Papers, reports, plans.

Until we appropriate money in Congress for whatever, it's just hot air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 04:21:11 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 01:41:27 PM

will there be a significant penalty?

Ya officials can't two time on their wives for a year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 04:26:43 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 04:21:11 PM

Ya officials can't two time on their wives for a year

In FRANCE?!

I think they might prefer prison...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSHUViGD0u0 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 19, 2021, 06:01:05 PM

The penalty is one week without a private jet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 07:07:12 PM

Nice day for a wine on the lake...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 20, 2021, 09:56:33 AM

This may come as shocker but it's snowing.....again.Now I know how Bill Murray felt in "GroundHog Day"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 10:04:56 AM

cold dry fluffy snow?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 20, 2021, 10:11:24 AM

That was yesterday I haven't been out yet but the word "squall" comes to mind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 20, 2021, 10:12:38 AM

Now the sun popped out this does look neat

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 20, 2021, 10:32:10 AM

If the sun comes out when it's snowing, do you get a snowbow? 

Upon googling: Yes, yes you do. 

(https://images.discerningassets.com/image/upload/c_fit,h_2000,w_2000/c_fit,fl_relative,h_1.0,o_100,w_1.0/v1454510401/Rainbow_in_the_Snow_mlxdyn.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2021, 10:45:15 AM

Chilly but nice sunny day here, already up to 37°F.

You can make the ° sign using ALT 248, on the numlock numbers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 20, 2021, 10:53:16 AM

the Houston area is done with freezing weather for at least the next 2 weeks

its 43 and cloudless

tee em up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 10:54:12 AM

learn some trivia every day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 10:55:31 AM

just cleaned the clubs in the kitchen sink

headed to the simulator at the sports bar at noon

simulator hate dirty clubs and balls

embeds dirt into the screen - big no no

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 20, 2021, 11:04:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 20, 2021, 10:45:15 AM

Chilly but nice sunny day here, already up to 37°F.

You can make the ° sign using ALT 248, on the numlock numbers.

Ñæτ 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 20, 2021, 11:13:47 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 10:55:31 AM

just cleaned the clubs in the kitchen sink

headed to the simulator at the sports bar at noon

simulator hate dirty clubs and balls

embeds dirt into the screen - big no no

Playing 18 tomorrow. 

Should be 75 and sunny.

Wife and I are headed out to a brewery in the afternoon... Maybe we'll take the Jeep with the top down. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 11:21:03 AM

playing at Top Golf in Rogers, AK tomorrow afternoon

after a 7 hour drive

44 degrees and wet in Rogers tommorow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 20, 2021, 11:21:14 AM

You're stealing all my lines.

I'm definitely moving to Southern California now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 20, 2021, 11:23:58 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 11:21:03 AM

playing at Top Golf in Rogers, AK tomorrow afternoon

after a 7 hour drive

44 degrees and wet in Rogers tommorow

You must be hauling ass if you can get from Iowa to Alaska in 7 hours. :c029:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 20, 2021, 12:31:30 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 10:55:31 AM

just cleaned the clubs in the kitchen sink

when you're done with that you can thaw out the chicken breasts in there too

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: HK_Vol on February 20, 2021, 08:50:17 PM

And on this, John Kerry and the rest of the envirowackos are silent.
I wonder why.....

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2021/02/03/china-built-three-times-as-much-coal-power-in-2020-as-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/


SNIP:
A joint report released Wednesday by the U.S.-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found China built over three times as much coal-fired electrical power capacity in 2020 as the rest of the world combined.

The GEM/CREA report found China’s coal power capacity grew by a net 28.8 gigawatts. China built coal plants at such a frantic pace, to provide cheap power for its swelling industrial capacity, that some of its coal plants might never repay their construction and maintenance costs:

China approved the construction of a further 36.9 GW of coal-fired capacity last year, three times more than a year earlier, bringing the total under construction to 88.1 GW. It now has 247 GW of coal power under development, enough to supply the whole of Germany.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 20, 2021, 09:31:20 PM

Hasn't John Kerry been silent about a decade and a half now? Probably windsurfing and eating ketchup...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2021, 08:33:54 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 20, 2021, 12:31:30 PM

when you're done with that you can thaw out the chicken breasts in there too

I did have chicken breasts last night, thawed in the meat drawer
snowing currently, hopefully done by 9am so I can clean the driveway before heading south

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 21, 2021, 09:16:33 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 21, 2021, 08:33:54 AM

I did have chicken breasts last night, thawed in the meat drawer
snowing currently, hopefully done by 9am so I can clean the driveway before heading south

Alaska in seven hours, and you're not even taking the most direct rout? You are heading south and circling the globe? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2021, 10:18:56 AM

Tesla Seems A Little Shook Over The Chevy Bolt (jalopnik.com) (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-seems-a-little-shook-over-the-chevy-bolt-1846296248?utm_campaign=Jalopnik&utm_content=1613670550&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR23NkeVJAHE-SxQ2xDn50ZRLLKoZNr_yTw4lAkk2j7YXvClMtOcou8jELk)

The 2022 Chevy Bolt and Bolt EUV debuted this week (https://jalopnik.com/the-2022-chevy-bolt-might-just-have-a-chance-1846279372), and a big part of Chevy’s sell on both cars was price. The Bolt will start at $31,995, while the Bolt EUV will start at $33,995, each several thousand dollars less than their Tesla Model 3 and Model Y competitors. Except now Tesla is cutting its prices (again (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-bending-on-price-1843705399)).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 21, 2021, 12:09:01 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 21, 2021, 08:33:54 AM

I did have chicken breasts last night, thawed in the meat drawer
snowing currently, hopefully done by 9am so I can clean the driveway before heading south

FORE!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2021, 04:18:01 PM

Meet the Amateur Scientist Who Discovered Climate Change | WIRED (https://www.wired.com/story/meet-the-amateur-scientist-who-discovered-climate-change/?fbclid=IwAR0t6a-C1NQJsnfDSMZukzufIF5gljFRd5cS-AWrfnzVeZZMUr-Ys8OJheg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:08:35 AM

U.N. says carbon-cutting pledges by countries nowhere near enough (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/26/un-says-carbon-cutting-pledges-by-countries-nowhere-near-enough.html?&qsearchterm=)

The world’s pledges so far are only enough to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to less than 1% below 2010 levels by 2030.
The world has to cut carbon pollution 45% below 2010 levels to achieve the more stringent official Paris goal of limiting future warming to another half a degree (0.3 degrees Celsius) from now, U.N. officials said.
“We are very, very far from where we need to be,” U.N. climate chief Patricia Espinosa said. “What we need to put on the table is much more radical and much more transformative than we have been doing until now.”




This stuff really annoys me for obvious reasons.  It's time to face up to reality and quite pretending pledges are going to change anything.  And the pledges are not nearly enough anyway according to the models.  This simply isn't happening.

Face reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2021, 11:22:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:08:35 AM

U.N. says carbon-cutting pledges by countries nowhere near enough (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/26/un-says-carbon-cutting-pledges-by-countries-nowhere-near-enough.html?&qsearchterm=)

The world’s pledges so far are only enough to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to less than 1% below 2010 levels by 2030.
The world has to cut carbon pollution 45% below 2010 levels to achieve the more stringent official Paris goal of limiting future warming to another half a degree (0.3 degrees Celsius) from now, U.N. officials said.
“We are very, very far from where we need to be,” U.N. climate chief Patricia Espinosa said. “What we need to put on the table is much more radical and much more transformative than we have been doing until now.”




This stuff really annoys me for obvious reasons.  It's time to face up to reality and quite pretending pledges are going to change anything.  And the pledges are not nearly enough anyway according to the models.  This simply isn't happening.

Face reality.

and while the rest of the world is trying to cut carbon emissions China is just smiling and plotting 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:46:57 AM

The rest of the world is trying to generate an illusion they are cutting emissions enough to matter.  They really aren't, and it's not close.  You can read the MIT Climate Assessment, and they are not "deniers".

It's time to face reality.  Or pray the models are wrong in the right direction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:49:48 AM

What Can Be Done About Climate Change | MIT Climate Portal (https://climate.mit.edu/what-can-be-done-about-climate-change)

If, by 2030, we cut our carbon emissions in about half – and, by 2050, we don’t emit any more carbon emissions than the planet can absorb each year – scientists predict that we can avoid the worst threats of climate change.

Summarized from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
 
 Special Report, Global Warming of 1.5°C (https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/)

Stipulate this is true, fine.  It's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.  There is NO practicable scenario to believe this is remotely possible.  None.  We are WAY off.

So, we can continue pretending rejoining Paris means something, it doesn't, or we can face FACTS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 11:52:42 AM

I don't know what "face reality" means.  Sounds like burfle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:54:25 AM

Global CO2 emissions continue to rise but EU bucks global trend | EU Science Hub (europa.eu) (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/global-co2-emissions-continue-rise-eu-bucks-global-trend#:~:text=This trend continued in 2019,total of 38.0 Gt CO2.)

Yay, Europe cut emissions nearly 4% in a year.  Nice job.  Irrelevant.  The US managed a 2.6% drop, under Trump.  Yay.  Say we get to 4% a year.  And it gets harder as time goes on in part because we'll need more energy.  

The largest percentage increase in emissions between 2018 and 2019 was found in China (+3.4%), followed by India (+1.6%), while Japan reduced its fossil CO2 emissions by 2.1%, the United States by 2.6% and Russia by 0.8%.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:56:04 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 11:52:42 AM

I don't know what "face reality" means.  Sounds like burfle.

I can't imagine how that could be misunderstood.  It obviously means "We are not going to meet these goals, no matter what.  So, perhaps we should deal with that reality and consider what else might be needed instead of pretending we're going to meet unrealistic goals."

It's akin  to the new coach at Eastern Michigan setting as a goal to win the NC in five years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 12:01:21 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/YHhiE0q.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 12:10:07 PM

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts (noaa.gov) (https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/2/-9134551.537929114/3113736.975227252/15/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 12:56:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:56:04 AM

I can't imagine how that could be misunderstood.  It obviously means "We are not going to meet these goals, no matter what.  So, perhaps we should deal with that reality and consider what else might be needed instead of pretending we're going to meet unrealistic goals."

It's akin  to the new coach at Eastern Michigan setting as a goal to win the NC in five years.

If he sets the goal of winning the national championship and merely wins the MAC three times, has he really failed?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 12:58:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:56:04 AM

It's akin  to the new coach at Eastern Michigan UNC setting as a goal to win the NC in five years.

That's just mean they weren't bothering you so I FIFY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 12:59:19 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 12:10:07 PM

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts (noaa.gov) (https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/2/-9134551.537929114/3113736.975227252/15/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion)

Florida's a goner feel bad for anyone moving there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 01:02:38 PM

4th straight day with temps climbing above 32

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 01:04:42 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 12:01:21 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/YHhiE0q.png)

Sure the Earth's temperatures have fluxuated wildly over all human history, and they fluxuated quite a bit more wildly before human history. But right now we are at the exact perfect temperature that the Earth is supposed to be for the rest of time, and must do everything in our power to make sure that it never changes again. Nothing could possibl-eye go wrong when man tries to control nature. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 01:07:44 PM

If you set a goal, and fail to meet it, you failed to meet it.  We're not even going to get close to these goals.

The notion it is at all rational to talk about cutting emissions in half by 2030 should just stop being part of any conversation.  We should consider what is going to happen as a result and how to mitigate that.

I'd like to lose 30 pounds.  If I tried and lost 10, it would be a something.  We're looking at maybe losing a pound, at best.

It really is that bad, despite the trillions we likely will throw at the problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 01:09:42 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 12:59:19 PM

Florida's a goner feel bad for anyone moving there

The sea could rise 10' from today's level and I'd still be OK in my home. Closer to the water!!


(https://i.imgur.com/VIkQIaQ.jpg)
This is where we are today:


(https://i.imgur.com/m5VmTqL.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 01:13:47 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 01:09:42 PM

The sea could rise 10' from today's level and I'd still be OK in my home. Closer to the water!!

That's great how about your gas,electric,fresh water-food sources?J/K would not wish that on anyone even ANTIFA leaning snoflakes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 01:16:42 PM

If the sea does rise 10' from today, we'll all be dead anyway. It would be too hot to live on this planet.

Except for the CCP. They'll figure it out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 01:18:34 PM

The projection is that MSL could rise 1 meter by 2100.  That would be bad, but it's 3 feet, more or less.

If we REALLY get on this problem and reduce CO2 emissions by spending trillions of dollars a year, it might only rise 2.95 feet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 01:20:49 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 01:16:42 PM

It would be too hot to live on this planet.Except for the CCP. They'll figure it out.

Stir Fry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 01:22:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 01:18:34 PM

The projection is that MSL could rise 1 meter by 2100.  That would be bad, but it's 3 feet, more or less.

If we REALLY get on this problem and reduce CO2 emissions by spending trillions of dollars a year, it might only rise 2.95 feet.

Start donating to the cause from the proceeds of book sales

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 01:32:02 PM

The sea would have to rise 2500 feet before it can get me. On the plus side, Lake Mead would be full again. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 01:32:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 01:07:44 PM

If you set a goal, and fail to meet it, you failed to meet it.  We're not even going to get close to these goals.

The notion it is at all rational to talk about cutting emissions in half by 2030 should just stop being part of any conversation.  We should consider what is going to happen as a result and how to mitigate that.

I'd like to lose 30 pounds.  If I tried and lost 10, it would be a something.  We're looking at maybe losing a pound, at best.

It really is that bad, despite the trillions we likely will throw at the problem.

I dunno doesn't sound like much of anything to me. Going on and on about the minutia is nice if we are making a serious run at the thing, but we aren't, so "facing facts" and the like are more buzzwords than anything substantial. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 01:38:08 PM

I tried to explain this several times.  Facing facts means "We're not going to reduce CO2 levels sufficiently, so we'd better start thinking about how to manage what is likely to happen."

Instead of spending trillions on CO2 reductions which would be inadequate, maybe we should consider spending SOME of that one ways to manage a higher MSL and hotter temperatures.

Or, we should get serious about other methods for managing this, like salting the oceans with iron.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 01:44:46 PM

I mean, all those things are on the table. I do think people are hoping for some magical fix (like a pill for weight loss) rather than accepting the reality of the situation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 26, 2021, 01:47:53 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 01:32:02 PM

The sea would have to rise 2500 feet before it can get me. On the plus side, Lake Mead would be full again.

it's hotter higher up,hope you like to fish

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 01:48:53 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yqi0FabHHs&ab_channel=JoeScott

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 01:52:29 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 01:32:02 PM

The sea would have to rise 2500 feet before it can get me. On the plus side, Lake Mead would be full again.

You'd probably get a lot more neighbors

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 01:56:42 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 01:52:29 PM

You'd probably get a lot more neighbors

Doubtful. The coastal folk will finally have a chance to use their webbed hands and feet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 02:11:46 PM

Great video to watch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2021, 02:23:45 PM

whats interesting is that we kick man in the ass for changing the climate and this video wants man to do more of it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 02:53:09 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTLMXBEJrIY&t=810s&ab_channel=JoeScott

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2021, 03:01:00 PM

Florida will be gone, but check out Bangladesh.  8x the people and growing faster.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2021, 03:17:49 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2021, 03:01:00 PM

Florida will be gone, but check out Bangladesh.  8x the people and growing faster.

Well, some of it. The Keys are toast by 2021 if the 3' thing comes to pass. Much of the rest will be OK under normal conditions. Storm surge will be a problem for more people than it is now, however.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 26, 2021, 03:32:55 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 12:56:45 PM

If he sets the goal of winning the national championship and merely wins the MAC three times, has he really failed?

Yes, he has failed at his goals. However, how you respond depends on the consequences for failure.

I like to aim for perfection in most things I do. I know I'm not going to achieve it. But by striving for perfection, we arrive at excellence. 

But sometimes excellence isn't enough... Such as:

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 01:07:44 PM

If you set a goal, and fail to meet it, you failed to meet it.  We're not even going to get close to these goals.

The notion it is at all rational to talk about cutting emissions in half by 2030 should just stop being part of any conversation.  We should consider what is going to happen as a result and how to mitigate that.

I'd like to lose 30 pounds.  If I tried and lost 10, it would be a something.  We're looking at maybe losing a pound, at best.

It really is that bad, despite the trillions we likely will throw at the problem.

If Cincydawg was told that:

• Not losing any weight would cause the planet would become unable to support 75% of our current population. 
• Losing 30 pounds would cause the planet to be able to support our current population and projected growth. 
• Losing 1 pound would cause the planet to become unable to support 74.9% of our current population.
• Losing 10 pounds would cause the planet to become unable to support 68% of the population.

If he then turned around and told you that his goal was to lose 10 pounds, but that his actual plan was unlikely to lose more than 5, I'd consider it a failure with enormous consequences. 

Your argument, Sam, is that if we need to lose weight and we don't lose enough, then we've still gained a lot. The opposite argument is if the plan as achieved kills 68% of the world's population, then even achieving the plan is a failure. 

Achieving the Paris Accords is still a monumental failure, according to those models. And all projections are that we're going to fall well short of it. 

So... That's facing reality. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 04:16:21 PM

Yeah, I get frustrated by GOALS which are not matched by PLANS, when the two things are so far apart, and yet folks pretend they are not.

If indeed "we" really want to cut CO2 emissions in half globally by 2030, our "plans" are pathetic.  At best, we'll stay where we are today.  The EU and US will chisel a bit down, and China and India will more than chisel a bit up.  "We" are just not serious or realistic about this, and it's annoying to me.

And the illusion is IF we spend $X trillion, somehow we can make our GOAL.  We can't, it's time to face that simple fact.  If the US and Europe had gone hard nuclear back in 2000 or so, we could have made a dent.  Just replacing coal would be useful, for various reasons, but China is going to swamp our feeble efforts.

I don't really care much for China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 26, 2021, 06:02:32 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 26, 2021, 03:32:55 PM

Yes, he has failed at his goals. However, how you respond depends on the consequences for failure.

I like to aim for perfection in most things I do. I know I'm not going to achieve it. But by striving for perfection, we arrive at excellence.

But sometimes excellence isn't enough... Such as:
If Cincydawg was told that:

• Not losing any weight would cause the planet would become unable to support 75% of our current population.
• Losing 30 pounds would cause the planet to be able to support our current population and projected growth.
• Losing 1 pound would cause the planet to become unable to support 74.9% of our current population.
• Losing 10 pounds would cause the planet to become unable to support 68% of the population.

If he then turned around and told you that his goal was to lose 10 pounds, but that his actual plan was unlikely to lose more than 5, I'd consider it a failure with enormous consequences.

Your argument, Sam, is that if we need to lose weight and we don't lose enough, then we've still gained a lot. The opposite argument is if the plan as achieved kills 68% of the world's population, then even achieving the plan is a failure.

Achieving the Paris Accords is still a monumental failure, according to those models. And all projections are that we're going to fall well short of it.

So... That's facing reality.

So, there's one of those trashy shows on TLC called the 1000 pound sisters (or something like that).  They are seriously overweight sisters who want to lose weight. One of them is like 400 pounds, and the other is 600 pounds.  They are big. So they want to get the weight loss surgery to lose weight, which causes delightful hijinks like getting weighed at a truck stop.

Anyways, they go to the doctor and instead of just lining them up for surgery, the doctor tells them they need to lose a certain amount of weight before he will approve the surgery.  The 400 pound one has to lose like 25 pounds, the 600 pound one has to lose like 45 pounds.  Now, are these "goals" somehow precise targets that must occur?  Obviously not.  They wouldn't even be close to the same size.  The "goals" are just aimed at getting the girls to demonstrate an ability to make changes that help them lose weight and make the surgery successful.  There isn't that much difference between being 400 and 375 pounds.

The Paris Accords goals aren't some sort of magical number that must occur.  They don't really matter at all. The entire point is that for any attempt to be worthwhile, a majority of the world needs to sign on and have some sort of target. Taking a serious shot requires some serious changes, and like with losing weight, if you talk about goals and don't change anything, then there is no chance of any sort of sustained change that does make a real difference.  

So this idea that we need to "face facts" is besides the point.  We are facing the facts.  Looking at some arbitrary numbers then declaring failure is besides the point.  Of course we won't meet the targets, but the problem isn't that the targets are wrong or the numbers don't add up.  The problem is we aren't trying to meet the targets at all. This discussion feels like the 600 pound sister sitting around eating Fritos and complaining that her 45 pound goal just isn't realistic, as if the problem was having a goal in the first place.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 26, 2021, 07:28:36 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 26, 2021, 03:32:55 PM

Yes, he has failed at his goals. However, how you respond depends on the consequences for failure.

I like to aim for perfection in most things I do. I know I'm not going to achieve it. But by striving for perfection, we arrive at excellence.

But sometimes excellence isn't enough... Such as:
If Cincydawg was told that:

• Not losing any weight would cause the planet would become unable to support 75% of our current population.
• Losing 30 pounds would cause the planet to be able to support our current population and projected growth.
• Losing 1 pound would cause the planet to become unable to support 74.9% of our current population.
• Losing 10 pounds would cause the planet to become unable to support 68% of the population.

If he then turned around and told you that his goal was to lose 10 pounds, but that his actual plan was unlikely to lose more than 5, I'd consider it a failure with enormous consequences.

Your argument, Sam, is that if we need to lose weight and we don't lose enough, then we've still gained a lot. The opposite argument is if the plan as achieved kills 68% of the world's population, then even achieving the plan is a failure.

Achieving the Paris Accords is still a monumental failure, according to those models. And all projections are that we're going to fall well short of it.

So... That's facing reality.

I find that I rarely have a response that isn't matched and exceeded by whatever bwar states.  Electrical engineers are so damn smart.  Somebody should put us in charge of everything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2021, 07:36:47 PM

If your plan involves everyone on Earth enthusiastically working together towards a common goal, then good luck with that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 06:36:33 AM

My perception is "we" have these meetings that generate accords or protocols and many of "us" think we're making progress.  And to withdraw from one means we're ignoring the problem.  To me, it's all window dressing, and expensive window dressing potentially.

Instead of debating whether climate change is real, I'd rather debate and note the obvious vast gulf between what really has to happen to avoid its worst effects, and what really COULD happen in the real world, what is LIKELY to happen.  I suppose if meetings and agreements make you feel better, OK, but I don't feel that way, at all.

Facing facts obviously means noting "we" are NOT going to meet any goals here, it's NOT going to happen, so perhaps we should be cognizant of that now and use actual data and information to adjust what we may attempt in the future.

Either that, or fly a bunch of diplomats to Bora Bora to meet and talk about it some more.

I suppose this is in part the part of me influenced by my work place talking where directors would set GOALS that were simply unachievable.  They claimed that if we got ten percent, that would at least be useful, but in the real world, it wasn't.  Ten percent was squat, irrelevant, pointless, and way too expensive had anyone attempted to implement it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2021, 08:18:19 AM

Nuke China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 27, 2021, 08:25:51 AM

How about we just drop NFL players in to over throw the CCP and our servicemen can sit home and sing the National Anthem and collect their checks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 27, 2021, 08:30:18 AM

I knew our School Board held out until the last minute.Hell even FFs neck of the woods got to stay at home while we had to go in

(https://i.imgur.com/urTdVkW.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/ub1vjNu.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 08:39:40 AM

That cancel school chart is not in accord with my observations.

What cancels school around here is an ice storm, not snow.  Snow rarely sticks on the streets.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 27, 2021, 08:44:55 AM

True but up by us the mail has to be delivered by huskies before they call off school.More often than not if we get close to a foot overnite they will prolly cancel.As the problem isn't getting the streets plowed but safe transportation of children

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 27, 2021, 09:19:39 AM

The colors on that map blend together a little bit. There appear to be more colors in the legend than on the map. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 27, 2021, 09:20:37 AM

what is the bottom map showing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 27, 2021, 09:25:22 AM

Can a school district close only one or two of their schools? 

I am in a county wide school district. There are six large HSs in the city/suburbs. They are under 3000ft, where it rarely snows. 

In addition to that, there are two tiny HSs out in the boonies. Both of them are over 5000ft where it snows all the time. One of them draws students from a large, mountainous geographic area. That one would obviously require several more snow days than the others. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 27, 2021, 09:55:52 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 27, 2021, 09:25:22 AM

Can a school district close only one or two of their schools?

Yes sometimes pipes freeze in one school but not the others

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 27, 2021, 12:00:16 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/gStd75A.png)  (https://i.imgur.com/B6yaDhh.png)


It's so cold, I actually saw a gangsta pull his pants up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 28, 2021, 09:35:53 AM

Why is the global climatic cataclysm of the sixth century virtually unheard of? | Ancient Origins (ancient-origins.net) (https://www.ancient-origins.net/unexplained-phenomena/why-global-climatic-cataclysm-sixth-century-virtually-unheard-001360?fbclid=IwAR2ejacZRqgUO0WaLa6sgGErSTP38d2AOcubdZ6g_IqbZr-hyu4eMQtvXks)


The volcano theory seems plausible to me, but a meteor could also throw up a lot of dust.

I have read some perhaps dubious predictions the Sun will cool soon, akin to the Maunder Minimum.  Maybe CO2 is a good thing?

I suspect we may encounter some irony here.  Maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on March 01, 2021, 08:17:26 AM

Interesting read.  I would guess it was a volcanic eruption in the Straight of Sumatra.  It seems it would be a simple thing to locate an ash layer from that time and match the ash to volcano suspects.  I would be surprised if no one is working on it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 08:53:06 AM

2022 Chevrolet Bolt EUV Is a Better Bolt: Review (roadandtrack.com) (https://www.roadandtrack.com/reviews/a35649343/2022-chevrolet-bolt-euv-review/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowR%26T&fbclid=IwAR2qS6v5hbNJwXiCTSkRZmAbAmgEdEdwdCzkJpVCcatPCSaAq1T1xHftvBs)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2021, 09:30:31 AM

I like the new Genesis SUV's much better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 09:43:45 AM

An EUV is really not comparable to an SUV in terms of consumer preferences.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 10:11:08 AM

I'm bringing back some good weather from Texas

starting tomorrow, upper 50's lower 60's for the next week or so

Thanks Utee

sending it your way Nubbz

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2021, 10:13:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 09:43:45 AM

An EUV is really not comparable to an SUV in terms of consumer preferences.

My preference is now known.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 10:18:50 AM

I prefer V8s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 10:19:03 AM

Most folks prefer a gasoline powered SUV today.  They aren't in the market for any EUV.

A person interested in a sports car is not going to cross shop a minivan.

A person interested in a mini-ute might look at the Bolt, maybe.

Yutes?  What did you say?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 10:19:33 AM

All things being equal, I prefer the in line six.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 10:33:18 AM

Atlanta, GA 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com (https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/f571da531af5fa018983700b738adfdb40dc04f959eed1269b4afffef810e180#detailIndex5)

Spring has sprung here apparently.  High temps mostly in 60s and 70s for ten days.  Our son in SF is coming in and our daughter in C-bus is coming as well to join our daughter and grandson from France.  Gonna be a packed condo.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 10:36:05 AM

all this traveling and congregating during a pandemic???

sure glad it's over in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 01, 2021, 01:13:05 PM

FF how was the golfing and BoneDaddy's?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on March 01, 2021, 01:30:07 PM

Cold today but 40s the rest of the week here in MSP. Snowpack will be gone by Friday. Looking forward to it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 02:18:14 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 01, 2021, 01:13:05 PM

FF how was the golfing and BoneDaddy's?

wrong thread

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 06:16:39 PM

Archival Shipping Records Help Prepare For Rising Seas : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/959600735/how-fast-are-oceans-rising-the-answer-may-be-in-century-old-shipping-logs)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 06:26:15 PM

So, think about how you'd develop your own climate model in broad strokes.

You have the core model, more CO2 leads to a larger greenhouse impact, that we can model with a high level of certainty.  But, that single variable is pretty small.  However, that slight rise impacts other things, albedo due to snow melting, changes in cloud cover (we know cloudy nights have a higher low T than clear nights in all cases), but clouds also reflect sunlight better than ground or ocean.  Then there are other factors like permafrost melting and oceanic absorption of heat and CO2 and deforestation and ...

Hmmm, this gets complicated.  But one could assemble a model, but how would you test it?  It would have to be tested against historical data.  We have a good record on CO2 levels over time.  Do we have a good record of mean global temperature?  Some say not so great.  But let's stipulate that it is good enough.

So, we have a chart with rise of CO2 and another with rise of T globally.  And we now fit parameters using the above variables to match that rise.  Easy enough really.  But if I do it, and you do it independently, we derive different equations.  They back predict the same thing, but they may predict different slopes going forward.

So, it gets complicated quickly.  Are the models right?  Is one better than all the others?  We can't know for some period of elapsed time, and good measurements.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 07:54:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2021, 06:26:15 PM

So, think about how you'd develop your own climate model in broad strokes.

with a huge generous grant from some wealthy source

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 08:40:38 PM

Contributing to climate change is once again expensive—at least in the eyes of the federal government.

That’s after the Biden administration on Friday raised the social cost of carbon to about $51 per ton. The figure factors into a wide variety of policy decisions including EPA regulations and government spending.

The move dramatically raises the value of carbon, which had fallen to as little as $1 under President Trump. The figure used by Biden mirrors estimates from the Obama-era, when it was $50 a ton. And it stands to go higher in January after the administration completes a comprehensive overhaul of carbon’s value.


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-carbon-pollution-pegged-at-51-a-ton/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-carbon-pollution-pegged-at-51-a-ton/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 08:41:43 PM

Riding a wave of optimism about renewed global climate action, The Nature Conservancy (TNC) is thrilled to announce the appointment of Professor Katharine Hayhoe as its new Chief Scientist.

Widely recognized as one of the world’s most effective and engaging climate scientists and science communicators, Prof. Hayhoe’s body of work at the cutting edge of climate research and human impacts has earned tremendous recognition. The United Nations selected her for its prestigious UN Champions of the Earth accolade in 2019; TIME Magazine featured her on its 100 Most Influential People list (2014); and the World Evangelical Alliance named her their climate ambassador this past year. A frequent media commentator known for engaging diverse audiences around the world, her TED talk has nearly 4 million views. She is also author of the forthcoming book Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World, which looks at how all of us can, and must, play a role in saving our future (One Signal/Simon & Schuster, September 2021).


https://www.nature.org/en-us/newsroom/katharine-hayhoe-new-chief-scientist/?src=s_two.exc.x.x.&sf139557383=1 (https://www.nature.org/en-us/newsroom/katharine-hayhoe-new-chief-scientist/?src=s_two.exc.x.x.&sf139557383=1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 08:28:41 AM

I'd like to read her plan for getting us somewhere.  Just to think of the Gates goal, it's clearly impracticable, a cut of CO2 emissions in half by 2030, GLOBALLY.

I might allow that the US and EU could manage that, in a pinch, I don't think it's practicable there either, I can't see it.  But China and India ....

Let's set a goal that is stretching but at least barely achievable and estimate the cost and benefit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 08:31:08 AM

This sort of language is an example of part of my rejection and objections:

She is also author of the forthcoming book Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World (https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Saving-Us/Katharine-Hayhoe/9781982143831), which looks at how all of us can, and must, play a role in saving our future

Now, all of us COULD play a role, but it's clear most of US won't, simple as that.  If the requirement is near unanimity globally, forget even talking about it.

BURFLE.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 11:35:19 AM

and unfortunately, she'll make more money on her burfle book than you will

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 11:48:00 AM

I made over $20 last year, not even in the full year.  I got a tax statement on it.

I'm going to shop it at a local book store that features rather unusual selections.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 02:46:47 PM

Interview: Climate Change – A Different Perspective with Judith Curry | Climate Etc. (https://judithcurry.com/2021/01/30/interview-climate-change-a-different-perspective-with-judith-curry/)

Judith Curry: Well, first off, people are looking for simple problems with simple solutions, and they thought that climate change was a simple problem, sort of like the ozone hole. Stop emitting chloroflourocarbons – stop the ozone hole; stop emitting CO2 – stop the global warming. There’s no way we’re going to make progress on CO2 emissions until we come up with alternatives that are reliable, abundant, secure, economical, et cetera, Wind and solar, aren’t the answer. All other things being equal, everybody would prefer clean over dirty energy. That’s a no brainer, maybe a few coal companies prefer dirty, but everybody would prefer clean, clean energy, but they’re not willing to sacrifice those other things like cost and reliability.


So it just doesn’t make sense. All of these targets and promises about energy are just so much hot air, if you will, sound and fury. We don’t have solutions and nobody’s meeting their targets. I mean, all they do is go to these meetings, make more and more stringent commitments that everyone knows aren’t going to be met. And at the same time, we’re not dealing with the real problems that might be addressed. For example, water is a big issue, we either have too much or too little. Independent of man-made global warming, let let’s sort out our water supply systems and our flood management strategies. How, how do we prepare for droughts? Lets focus on the current problems that we have – food, water, and energy. Those are the three big ones.

And the other thing, while we’re trying to make energy cleaner, we’re basically sacrificing grid electricity for many parts of Africa and we’re inhibiting their development. How does that help human development and human wellbeing? It makes no sense. Even if we were successful, say stopping CO2 emissions by 2050 we might see a few tenths of a degree reduction in the warming by the end of the 21st century, how does that help us now?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 03:35:07 PM

does Judith have credentials as impressive as Professor Katharine Hayhoe???

joking of course

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 03:43:20 PM

Katharine Anne Scott Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist and professor of political science at Texas Tech University, where she is director of the Climate Science Center. She is also the CEO of the consulting firm ATMOS Research and Consulting. 

Professor of Political Science?  huh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 02, 2021, 03:57:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 03:43:20 PM

Katharine Anne Scott Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist and professor of political science at Texas Tech University, where she is director of the Climate Science Center. She is also the CEO of the consulting firm ATMOS Research and Consulting.

Professor of Political Science?  huh.

THE Political Science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 03:59:30 PM

She has a PhD in a scientific field, I'm just curious about her professorship.

Curry of course was head of the department of Climate Science at Georgia Tech.  I think she raises interesting points and read her blog fairly often.  She's what I view as a "climate realist".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2021, 08:37:09 AM

She sounds like me, I notice, she must be very smart.

Ha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 08, 2021, 03:38:08 PM

Man finally some proper porch weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 08, 2021, 04:16:03 PM

75 here tomorrow

my golf course is opening in the morning

I have a 1:15.  

might not have time to post here much in the afternoon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 08, 2021, 04:39:24 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 08, 2021, 04:16:03 PM

75 here tomorrow

my golf course is opening in the morning

I have a 1:15. 

might not have time to post here much in the afternoon

we'll try to cope

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2021, 02:12:02 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/EqmK1cX.png)

The "plan" (or notion) is that EVs will solve this, someday, somehow.  Electrical generation is doing a decent job, mostly due to coal to NG transitions.  I'm not sure how buildings generate CO2.  They USE power of course, some of which would be NG.  Any electricity they use largely comes from the blue line.  Same with industry.  But this is a LOT of metric tons obviously (and US only).

IF we really were serious about going to zero in  30 years ....  I can't see it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2021, 06:09:52 PM

DW: The goal is to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). What role can nuclear power play?

Mycle Schneider: Today we need to put the question of urgency first. It's about how much we can reduce greenhouse gases and how quickly for every euro ($1.21) spent. So, it's a combination between cost and feasibility, while doing it in the fastest possible way.

And if we're talking about the construction of new power plants, then nuclear power is simply excluded. Not just because it is the most expensive form of electricity generation today, but, above all, because it takes a long time to build reactors. In other words, every euro invested in new nuclear power plants makes the climate crisis worse because now this money cannot be used to invest in efficient climate protection options.

What about existing nuclear power plants?

The power plants exist, they provide electricity. However, many of the measures needed for energy efficiency are now cheaper than the basic operating costs of nuclear power plants. That is the first point, and unfortunately it is always forgotten.

The second point is that renewables today have become so cheap that in many cases they are below the basic operating costs of nuclear power plants.


https://www.dw.com/en/nuclear-climate-mycle-schneider-renewables-fukushima/a-56712368 (https://www.dw.com/en/nuclear-climate-mycle-schneider-renewables-fukushima/a-56712368)


(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Z-arfvIz1AKwSQ1XTTo-JoUrE4adSUWHUIAsX-Z8xLJJ3YnUvRG9eT_l2AXByAMn0YNJMQ=s85)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 11, 2021, 06:14:31 PM

GM Working on Lithium-Metal Batteries, Could Achieve 600 Miles of Range (motortrend.com) (https://www.motortrend.com/news/gm-lithium-metal-battery-tech-range/?sm_id=organic_fb_MT_trueanthem&utm_campaign=&utm_medium=&utm_source=&fbclid=IwAR3NqIQ_syxVjPTftAk9gciRqLkBlE7_M7fbFLyM292_ZlQnRAiT7NNKM28)

Encouraging news on the EV front.

We need base load power from something, nuclear is a good option versus coal.  With more EVs, we're going to need quite a bit more power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2021, 07:10:53 PM

it would be good if it didn't take 10 years to bring a reactor on-line

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 11, 2021, 07:27:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2021, 06:14:31 PM

GM Working on Lithium-Metal Batteries, Could Achieve 600 Miles of Range (motortrend.com) (https://www.motortrend.com/news/gm-lithium-metal-battery-tech-range/?sm_id=organic_fb_MT_trueanthem&utm_campaign=&utm_medium=&utm_source=&fbclid=IwAR3NqIQ_syxVjPTftAk9gciRqLkBlE7_M7fbFLyM292_ZlQnRAiT7NNKM28)

Encouraging news on the EV front.

We need base load power from something, nuclear is a good option versus coal.  With more EVs, we're going to need quite a bit more power.

The beautiful people wont let us build nuclear

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2021, 08:56:30 AM

As part of a marathon research effort to lower the cost of carbon capture, chemists have now demonstrated a method to seize carbon dioxide (CO2) that reduces costs by 19 percent compared to current commercial technology. The new technology requires 17 percent less energy to accomplish the same task as its commercial counterparts, surpassing barriers that have kept other forms of carbon capture from widespread industrial use. And it can be easily applied in existing capture systems.


In a study published in the March 2021 edition of International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory—along with collaborators from Fluor Corp. and the Electric Power Research Institute—describe properties of the solvent, known as EEMPA, that allow it to sidestep the energetically expensive demands incurred by traditional solvents.

"EEMPA has some promising qualities," said chemical engineer Yuan Jiang, lead author of the study. "It can capture carbon dioxide without high water content, so it's water-lean, and it's much less viscous than other water-lean solvents."


https://phys.org/news/2021-03-cheaper-carbon-capture.html (https://phys.org/news/2021-03-cheaper-carbon-capture.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2021, 10:18:39 AM

The best things for carbon capture are plants.  Obviously it can be done artificially, but the cost in energy is astonishing.

In theory, we could build a nuke in 5 years.  The trick is to isolate on one basic design and replicate, perhaps the SMRs may come back, but I doubt it.  Each nuke is unique, or almost that.  Anyway, it's not going to happen after two more reactors come on line later this year and next, that's it for the US.

Each large aircraft carrier contains two nuclear power reactors.  We park them at Norfolk and San Diego out in the harbor and no one blinks an eye.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 12, 2021, 11:15:23 AM

We rarely get rain or snow, but right now we are getting a mix of the two. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 11:27:37 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 11, 2021, 07:27:33 PM

The beautiful people wont let us build nuclear

As I've said,I have no problem with them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2021, 11:41:36 AM

IF "we" were really serious about CC, we'd be down with nuclear as the only way to generate base load in high figures fairly quickly by replacing coal.

The growth in wind and solar MIGHT compensate for increased demand, maybe, but it's not base load.  And that still leaves us with coal and NG.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 13, 2021, 09:42:34 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 12, 2021, 11:15:23 AM

We rarely get rain or snow, but right now we are getting a mix of the two.

And overnight we officially got out first snowstorm of the year in mid March. Hahaha

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 13, 2021, 12:49:50 PM

Just in time for their first ever home football game in the D1 era. 

https://twitter.com/DixieState_FB/status/1370792126766718978?s=20

Football weather from the football gods. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2021, 10:28:42 AM

looks like Football weather to me

it's raining here now, supposed to turn to snow tonight

3-4 inches by Monday noon

more rain and snow in the forecast mid-week

it's MArch

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2021, 03:05:50 PM

Road to Climate Neutrality | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/08/road-to-climate-neutrality/#more-26958)

The study includes a case study done for two EU member states: The Netherlands, a country along the North Sea with abundant wind, and the Czech Republic, a landlocked country with no access to sea and a geographical more challenging landscape. In realistic scenarios, there is not enough land to meet all power demand if the Czech Republic and The Netherlands were to rely solely or predominantly on wind and solar power.
The study, initiated by Dutch MEP Rob Roos and Czech MEP Ondřej Knotek and peer-reviewed in part by, among other respected scientists, Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus, finds that nuclear energy is also more cost-effective than renewables. Even if taken into account major efficiency improvements in solar and wind farms, nuclear energy will remain the cheaper option in 2050. In this comparison, the enormous costs for adapting the electricity grid, such as connecting wind turbines at sea or solar parks on land, are not even included. That price tag is also invariably lower for nuclear energy.
“We found it remarkable that – in transitioning away from fossil fuels – the EU made a policy decision in favour of renewable energy without considering the relative pros and cons of all carbon-neutral technologies”, both MEPs stated.
Mr Roos: “Nuclear energy is always available, cheaper and saves the landscape. Moreover, further research into, for example, the thorium molten salt reactor offers enormous opportunities for our export position. Let’s invest our tax money in that. ”

Reality starting to seep in ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2021, 04:02:11 PM

The study also concluded that EU 2050 climate neutrality, if achieved, will likely cause only a very small decrease in the average global atmospheric temperature increase, estimated at between 0.05°C and 0.15°C in 2100, and no more than between 0.02°C and 0.06°C in 2050, assuming no carbon leakage occurs. Electricity-generating technologies therefore should be evaluated for the degree to which they constitute ‘no regrets’ solutions.


Tell me again why we should  spend trillions to decarbonize our economy?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 04:15:49 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 15, 2021, 04:02:11 PM

Tell me again why we should  spend trillions to decarbonize our economy?

because it's the right thing to do, regardless of cost and effectiveness

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 11:34:47 AM

GM and Ford take cues from Tesla, but try to avoid Musk's mistakes (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/gm-and-ford-take-cues-from-tesla-but-try-to-avoid-musks-mistakes.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 08:01:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 15, 2021, 04:02:11 PM

The study also concluded that EU 2050 climate neutrality, if achieved, will likely cause only a very small decrease in the average global atmospheric temperature increase, estimated at between 0.05°C and 0.15°C in 2100, and no more than between 0.02°C and 0.06°C in 2050, assuming no carbon leakage occurs. Electricity-generating technologies therefore should be evaluated for the degree to which they constitute ‘no regrets’ solutions.

Presuming the above is accurate (and it's consistent with what I've been saying), why should we "invest" trillions to achieve a very slight possible decrease in global warming?

China is going crazy here.  Europe and the US are bit players now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 08:09:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 08:01:14 PM

Presuming the above is accurate (and it's consistent with what I've been saying), why should we "invest" trillions to achieve a very slight possible decrease in global warming?

China is going crazy here.  Europe and the US are bit players now.

What did they say about 2200?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 08:21:54 PM

I don't believe anyone thinks the models would be predictive past 2100 or so, if that.

I think one can hope nuclear fusion becomes a viable power source by ca. 2070.  In 180 years, we likely can expect something to supplant fossil fuels.  Mankind has been using fossil fuel only about 200 years to any extent, only about 100 years to a significant extent.  But, spending huge sums NOW in some crash program is clearly not warranted.  Continuing to invest in technology and effort more gradually does make sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 08:27:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 08:21:54 PM

I don't believe anyone thinks the models would be predictive past 2100 or so, if that.

I think one can hope nuclear fusion becomes a viable power source by ca. 2070.  In 180 years, we likely can expect something to supplant fossil fuels.  Mankind has been using fossil fuel only about 200 years to any extent, only about 100 years to a significant extent.  But, spending huge sums NOW in some crash program is clearly not warranted.  Continuing to invest in technology and effort more gradually does make sense.

Well that's the real trick.  The climate isn't responsive to short term trends. Most of our models are based on a lot of geologic evidence that can range in hundreds to thousands to millions of years. We have nuclear power now, but there isn't a lot of policy forcing innovation towards any sort of fusion. That is something that has to go into the cost/benefit analysis - if there is no real penalty for keeping the status quo, it is difficult to say that other forms of energy production is anything but a lottery ticket.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 08:32:00 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 08:27:48 PM

. We have nuclear power now, but there isn't a lot of policy forcing innovation towards any sort of fusion. That is something that has to go into the cost/benefit analysis - if there is no real penalty for keeping the status quo, it is difficult to say that other forms of energy production is anything but a lottery ticket.

There is considerable effort being applied to developing practicable nuclear fusion.  Maybe it's not enough, maybe some of it is not being done as well as it should be, but there is considerable effort.  There is a lot of criticism about the various programs, particularly ITER, and it may be valid criticism, but it reflects a considerable effort.

I lean to thinking such multinational efforts grind their gears a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2021, 10:37:46 AM

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/3/15/russia-s-carbon-dependent-economy-challenges-a-clean-energy-shift (https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/3/15/russia-s-carbon-dependent-economy-challenges-a-clean-energy-shift)


“We have to be realistic, we are the largest country in the world,” the minister for development of the Arctic and Far East said in a video interview, projecting a 30-year future for natural gas as a mobile, clean alternative to coal. “Solar is not an option for the Arctic region and wind energy isn’t constant.”

Chekunkov’s approach reflects a Russian dilemma: Seen from Moscow, the melting of the polar ice cap is as much economic opportunity as natural disaster, opening the Northern Sea Route from Asia to Europe for shipping and creating access to potentially vast new reserves of minerals, oil and gas.

More broadly, of the bigger geopolitical players — China, the European Union, India, Russia and the U.S. — none risks as much from a successful transition from fossil fuels, if that should happen. Few are as dubious that it will.

“We also know how that’s working out,” President Vladimir Putin said of the transition, during a video call in early March with Russia’s coal industry bosses in which he called for increased exports to Asia. “Texas is frozen and the wind turbines there had to be heated in ways that are a long way from being environmentally friendly. Maybe that will lead to some corrections, too.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2021, 10:42:11 AM

I think the US will throw money at the wall and pretend it helps something.  Mostly it will be pork.  IF wind and solar are cost competitive now, why does it need government intervention to promote it?

And the difference down the road of a tenth of a degree C strikes me as irrelevant, not even measurable.  But, it affords Congress a lot of potential for spreading funds as favors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2021, 11:16:26 AM

that's all this is about........

politicians being greedy politicians

helping themselves, not the people or the world

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2021, 11:19:39 AM

It's ideal for them.  Climate change can be presented as a crisis on which we HAVE to spend money, and the "other side" is anti-science.  So, we HAVE to spend money, on this and that.  Any attempt to ask for a plan or cost:benefit or other questions will be relegated to the Denier list.

We'll spend a huge sum better used for other needs, but a lot of Friends of Congress will get wealthier.

The debt will grow again, nobody worries about that any more (save the party out of power at times).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 08:37:38 AM

https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/ (https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/)


Global Coal Countdown Dashboard

The Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown has one singular mission: to track and countdown the world's remaining coal plant units as decision-makers across governments and the private sector work together to accelerate the transition to a clean energy future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 18, 2021, 10:19:53 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 08:37:38 AM

https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/ (https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/)


Global Coal Countdown Dashboard

The Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown has one singular mission: to track and countdown the world's remaining coal plant units as decision-makers across governments and the private sector work together to accelerate the transition to a clean energy future.

I wish Texas had a few more coal power plants during the cold snap we had

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 10:23:59 AM

I can see one from my house

good reliable inexpensive power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 18, 2021, 10:29:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 10:23:59 AM

I can see one from my house

good reliable inexpensive power

I understand that power plants can be built to run off hydrogen maybe thats the answer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2021, 10:47:15 AM

Hydrogen Resources | Department of Energy (https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-resources)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 11:05:18 AM

I have hydrogen fuel cells that power fancy electronic equipment when commercial power fails

clean, quiet, no moving parts

but not large scale....... around 60amps of DC power

(https://i.imgur.com/7NrcXLR.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 11:31:27 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 18, 2021, 10:29:43 AM

I understand that power plants can be built to run off hydrogen maybe thats the answer

But you have to make hydrogen with another power source.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 11:35:57 AM

apparently, the sun is one of those power sources

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 11:41:52 AM

The sun can be.  But hydrogen is a secondary energy storage source.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2021, 11:50:10 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 11:35:57 AM

apparently, the sun is one of those power sources

Not when it's cloudy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 12:16:38 PM

that's why you store the sun's energy in hydrogen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 18, 2021, 12:29:46 PM

How is hydrogen being produced today

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-natural-gas-reforming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2021, 12:55:16 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 12:16:38 PM

that's why you store the sun's energy in hydrogen

How much can realistically be stored? In the Midwest, you're lucky to see the sun a few times from November to April. In the Northwest, you might never see it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 01:17:39 PM

(https://s29755.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Heavy_duty_hydrogen_1.jpg)

since folks don't seem to like pipelines

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 18, 2021, 02:44:42 PM

I've been producing enough methane lately to power a small town....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 18, 2021, 02:58:57 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 18, 2021, 02:44:42 PM

I've been producing enough methane lately to power a small town....

no surprise to us

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2021, 03:09:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 01:17:39 PM

(https://s29755.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Heavy_duty_hydrogen_1.jpg)

since some idiotic folks don't seem to like pipelines

Fixed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 03:12:20 PM

Used to use liquid Helium often.  It was cool stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 03:20:09 PM

Amarillo, TX the helium capital of the world 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 06:24:07 PM

For more than four decades, the name of former Cedar Rapids utility executive Duane Arnold has been synonymous with nuclear power in Iowa. Now it could have a new connotation: a massive solar energy project planned for 2023 near the now-idle Duane Arnold Energy Center.

Owner NextEra Energy of Florida this week laid out plans in a virtual meeting with nearby landowners to build a solar farm that could bring in a $700 million capital investment and about 300 construction jobs.

The solar farm is planned across 3,500 acres at and near the now-decommissioned nuclear plant in Palo, project manager Kimberly Dickey said in the Tuesday night meeting.

It is expected to produce up to 690 megawatts of solar energy — even more than the single-unit nuclear plant generated.

When Duane Arnold was operating, NextEra said, the 615-megawatt facility could generate enough electricity for 600,000 homes.

“We’re also hoping to accompany that solar project with up to 60 megawatts of AC-coupled batteries,” Dickey said.

Battery storage allows a company to store energy captured when customer demand is lower to use in peak times.


https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/duane-arnold-nuclear-plant-solar-farm-nextera-energy-palo-ia-20210318 (https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/duane-arnold-nuclear-plant-solar-farm-nextera-energy-palo-ia-20210318)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2021, 09:59:22 AM

LONDON: Energy group BP aims to build Britain's largest hydrogen plant by 2030, it said on Thursday (Mar 18), as part of the country's push to boost use of the fuel and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The Teesside plant in northern England will have capacity of up to 1 gigawatt (GW) of so-called blue hydrogen, about a fifth of Britain's target of 5 GW of hydrogen capacity by the end of the decade.

Blue hydrogen is produced by converting natural gas into hydrogen and storing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from its production.

BP has begun a feasibility study on the project to explore technologies that could capture up to 98 per cent of carbon emissions from the hydrogen production process.

The Teesside project, dubbed H2Teesside, is expected to capture up to 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year and pipe it into storage below the North Sea, BP said.


https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/bp-britain-largest-blue-hydrogen-plant-clean-energy-14437094 (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/bp-britain-largest-blue-hydrogen-plant-clean-energy-14437094)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2021, 10:02:19 AM

The technology works by adding an attachment to the cooling towers and a blend of CO2-absorbing chemicals to the towers’ water. The water sucks in the carbon dioxide while the attachment activates a “regeneration process” to convert the captured carbon back into gas. Noya can then resell that captured gas to industrial CO2 consumers.

The concept works within a circular economy model. Still, it’s not green because the CO2 is recirculated instead of sequestered—nevertheless, it’s cleaner than existing sources of consumer CO2, which comes from ethanol and ammonia plants.

Santos said:

Five years from now, we fully intend to have vertically integrated carbon capture and sequestration. Our first step is locally produced low-cost atmospherically captured CO2. If we were to go all-in on carbon capture, that would require a lot of time to develop. What this initial model allows us to do is fine-tune our capture technology while building up long-term to go to market.


https://www.intelligentliving.co/amp/cooling-towers-converted-into-carbon-capture-devices/ (https://www.intelligentliving.co/amp/cooling-towers-converted-into-carbon-capture-devices/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2021, 10:03:40 AM

These sound like PR projects to me.  I'm dubious.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2021, 10:31:18 AM

I agree, but....... I'm hopeful

with enough smart/lucky folks poking around, perhaps there will be a major breakthrough that can actually really help

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 20, 2021, 09:57:38 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2021, 03:20:09 PM

Amarillo, TX the helium capital of the world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtVeDaZxAXo

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2021, 10:06:52 AM

The problem with sucking CO2 out of the air is entropy.

And the fact that plants do it very well now by themselves.

I doubt a human process can do much better or more efficiently.

Look at a tree, nearly all of its mass is made from CO2 and water.  Just plant more trees and cut the down after 20 years and bury the trunks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2021, 10:31:06 AM

they could use more trees around Amarillo

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2021, 10:52:27 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 20, 2021, 10:31:06 AM

they could use more trees around Amarillo

One of my proposals if to plant trees on Interstate shoulders, far enough not to be a traffic hazard, and then cut them every 20 years and bury them where they don't degrade.  Making lumber is OK too I think, though eventually that also rots.

More tree farms, the cellulose in paper products usually ends up in landfill and entombed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2021, 12:33:57 PM

PNNL-developed solvent breaks barriers, captures carbon for less than industrial counterparts.

As part of a marathon research effort to lower the cost of carbon capture, chemists have now demonstrated a method to seize carbon dioxide (CO2) that reduces costs by 19 percent compared to current commercial technology. The new technology requires 17 percent less energy to accomplish the same task as its commercial counterparts, surpassing barriers that have kept other forms of carbon capture from widespread industrial use. And it can be easily applied in existing capture systems.

In a study published in the March 2021 edition of International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory—along with collaborators from Fluor Corp. and the Electric Power Research Institute—describe properties of the solvent, known as EEMPA, that allow it to sidestep the energetically expensive demands incurred by traditional solvents.


(https://scitechdaily.com/images/Two-Stage-Flash-Configuration.gif)

This animation depicts the two-stage flash configuration, one of several processes described in a new study detailing how EEMPA, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory-developed solvent, can capture carbon from flue gas emitted by power plants. From left to right, EEMPA (red) first interacts with flue gas (black), where it absorbs carbon dioxide. Then, as a saturated solvent (blue), EEMPA is stripped of carbon dioxide in high and low-pressure tanks. Finally, the stripped solvent is reintroduced to the carbon dioxide absorber, where the process begins again. Credit: Animation by Michael Perkins | Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2021, 12:36:36 PM

I bet trees do it better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 01:38:38 PM

How much Carbon does one Tree absorb? | CarbonPirates (https://www.carbonpirates.com/blog/how-much-carbon-do-trees-absorb/)

Short answer, trees would help, some.

A young tree absorbs about 5900 gram CO2 per year, while a 10 year old tree absorbs almost 22.000 gram per year.
By taking these numbers we can calculate the average CO2 that is absorbed by a tree during his lifetime.
To make this more tangible we convert the absorption per tree, to the CO2 capture per acre.
When you run the number, it turns out that one acre of forest absorbs about 2.5 tons of CO2 per year.

(https://www.carbonpirates.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/co2-tree-person-flight.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 01:40:28 PM

And a problem is that trees eventually die, and rot, which releases the CO2 they stored, unless they are harvested and preserved somewhere, or converted down to carbon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 01:46:49 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 01:40:28 PM

And a problem is that trees eventually die, and rot, which releases the CO2 they stored, unless they are harvested and preserved somewhere, or converted down to carbon.

but isnt that the circle of life as other trees use the co2 released by dead trees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 02:04:45 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 01:46:49 PM

but isnt that the circle of life as other trees use the co2 released by dead trees

If the objective is to sequester CO2 permanently, that doesn't work.  My focus is on comparing artificial CO2 capture with how trees do it normally.  There is a huge entropy problem with taking something at a concentration of 410 ppm out of the rest of it,  you can't get around entropy except with enthalpy, which costs something.

One can absorb CO2 with say NaOH, it works, and you get Na₂CO3, fine, but you have to make the NaOH to start with.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 02:41:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 02:04:45 PM

If the objective is to sequester CO2 permanently, that doesn't work.  My focus is on comparing artificial CO2 capture with how trees do it normally.  There is a huge entropy problem with taking something at a concentration of 410 ppm out of the rest of it,  you can't get around entropy except with enthalpy, which costs something.

One can absorb CO2 with say NaOH, it works, and you get Na₂CO3, fine, but you have to make the NaOH to start with.

come on man
Im just a poor retired accountant from Texas
put it into words humans can understand

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2021, 02:49:31 PM

I love the big, fancy ideas ending in..."I dunno....bury it?"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 03:04:01 PM

The idea of planting more trees isn't some "fancy idea", it's pretty simple as compared to carbon capture technologies.  But you would need to keep dead wood from rotting to effectively "capture" the carbon.

It would take up a lot of space to make a dent, that is the issue.  Wind and solar take up a lot of space as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 22, 2021, 04:31:55 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 02:41:02 PM

come on man
Im just a poor retired accountant from Texas
put it into words humans can understand

The short simple version is that nature has a carbon cycle. Trees take carbon out of the air. Then they die, they rot, and release the carbon back into the air. They've been doing it for thousands of years, and the amount of carbon in the air has stayed pretty constant.

Humans have disrupted that cycle, pulled a lot of carbon compounds out of the ground, burned them, and now there's WAY more carbon in the atmosphere than at least any point in human history, possibly higher than most times in the planet's modern history. 

So nature's carbon cycle, left to its own devices, isn't going to clean this up on the time scale we need it to. 

We need to pull the carbon out of the air faster, and we need to do it in a way that puts it back in the ground where we got it so it doesn't cause rot and end up in the atmosphere again. 

tl;dr trees are great, but they can't fix what we broke on their own...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 05:28:17 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/Hoemz2m.png)

CO2 levels have been much higher in the distant (prehuman) past.  We didn't have plants initially of course.  The air was primarily nitrogen, CO2, and water vapor back when.  Then plants came along, some 2.5 billion years or so back (not on the chart).

A brief history of the Earth's CO2 - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41671770#:~:text=Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been,about five billion years ago.)

The oceans are the largest sink for CO2.  Various aquatic plants or animals form calcium carbonate and die and sink to the bottom of the sea, never to be seen again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 22, 2021, 06:58:39 PM

All I know is that I just drove across a snow covered desert in late March. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 22, 2021, 07:13:43 PM

Did you get your mitts on peyote buttons again?Not there's anything wrong with that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 22, 2021, 07:25:11 PM

I still haven't come across a peyote cactus yet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 22, 2021, 10:48:51 PM

Although I did find a giant pile of quarters on the ground. About 15 bucks. 

Even if they were tampered with and left there as a prank, the rain that preceded the snow would have washed them off.

**cue Cincydawg mentioning some type of harmful chemical that cannot possibly be washed off**

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 09:54:38 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 22, 2021, 10:48:51 PM

**cue Cincydawg mentioning some type of harmful chemical that cannot possibly be washed off**

Heh, it's possible but unlikely.  A lot of poisons of course are not water soluble, including some bad ones.

I have a "favorite" that goes through the skin, but it would wash off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 23, 2021, 10:06:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 09:54:38 AM

I have a "favorite" that goes through the skin, but it would wash off.

LSD? 

:7505:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:07:22 AM

No, it's pretty well known obviously, and fairly common stuff, but I'm not going to mention it here.  It's quite deadly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:15:02 AM

Canceling the AMO | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/03/06/canceling-the-amo/)

I was plowing through this today, a SUMMARY, not a primary paper, and reflecting on how challenging it is to read even a summary of some work in climate to understand it, and yet "civilians" form hard and fast opinions on the topic, based primarily on their politics.  How many would try and read and understand even an overview like this?

A man's got to know his limitations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 23, 2021, 10:25:35 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:15:02 AM

Canceling the AMO | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/03/06/canceling-the-amo/)

I was plowing through this today, a SUMMARY, not a primary paper, and reflecting on how challenging it is to read even a summary of some work in climate to understand it, and yet "civilians" form hard and fast opinions on the topic, based primarily on their politics.  How many would try and read and understand even an overview like this?

A man's got to know his limitations.

One of the biggest reasons why many folks dont believe in climate changes is the many times in the past gloom and doom forecasts will happen by a certain date and the date comes and goes and it never happened

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:35:22 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 23, 2021, 10:25:35 AM

One of the biggest reasons why many folks dont believe in climate changes is the many times in the past gloom and doom forecasts will happen by a certain date and the date comes and goes and it never happened

A thing I found is that the "gloom and doom" forecasts were NOT made by scientists, but by folks like Al Gore who misrepresented what scientists actually said.

In every case.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 23, 2021, 10:42:35 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:35:22 AM

A thing I found is that the "gloom and doom" forecasts were NOT made by scientists, but by folks like Al Gore who misrepresented what scientists actually said.

In every case.

youre correct but MSM doesnt care who predicts it and they say it over and over until folks take it as fact

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:52:00 AM

That could be, but it says nothing about the validity technically of the climate change theory.

Folks form their opinions based on their politics, not science or analysis of the evidence.

I saw several folks on FB turn from vaccine heros to naysayers once Biden was in office, now they don't want it, and one other who is liberal did the exact opposite.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 11:13:07 AM

Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks | Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07276)

My guess is none of us are climatologists.  Many of us here are at least technically trained and can manage statistics a fair bit and analysis.  I think we also realize that to the extent we are experts, others are not, unless they have equivalent training and experience.  And that takes a LOT of effort.

So, I'm hesitant to form much of an opinion on a topic like climate change because I am aware of my rather severe limitations in so doing.  I do try and read up on it because I find it interesting, but very very complicated and full of terms I don't know.

Ergo, I'm not going to assume it's a hoax, or it's real, or that the models are great, or terrible, or in between.  I can manage the analysis that shows it's too late to do very much about it.  That part is obvious and starting to get more attention even in the media at times, but it's mostly hidden as yet.

Our inability to build more nuclear power reactors also suggests to me this is not a technical endeavor, but is political, and folks often are more interested in politics and throwing money at it than solving the problem in real terms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 11:27:42 AM

but, you said it was all burfle

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2021, 11:28:50 AM

The problem with climate science is that the people who understand the climate know very little about economics or social policy, and the people who know about economics or social policy know little about climate. 

I've said this before. The question of what, if anything, we do about CO2 relies on multiple chained statements of logic.

• CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and more CO2 in the atmosphere will raise the Earth's temperature.
• The Earth's temperature has been rising for the last 170 years, and has shown a marked rise since heavy industrialization started in the mid-20th century. 
• Human burning of CO2 is causing more of it to be in the atmosphere. 
• Ergo, human activity is causing the Earth to get warmer.
• Rising temperatures are bad. 
• The Earth's climate will not modulate temperatures on its own--i.e. any natural negative feedback reactions (cloud cover, more precipitation, etc) to the rising temperature that offsets the CO2 greenhouse effect are not powerful enough to contain the temperature rise. This is saying that low "climate sensitivity" factors are wrong.
• On the contrary, there might be positive feedback loops (permafrost melting/rotting and releasing more CO2, increased particulate matter on glaciers and the ice caps causing them to absorb more thermal energy rather than reflect it, etc) that will either magnify the known greenhouse gas effect of CO2, or possibly destabilize our climate entirely. This is saying that high "climate sensitivity" factors are right.
• The economic effects of warming are bad. 
• The economic effects of warming are WORSE than the economic effects of dismantling our carbon-based energy economy too quickly. I.e. it's saying that we can't use the economic growth of the next half-century or so to simply "live with" the warming because we'll have enough wealth in society at that point to deal with the harmful economic effects. 

At this time, #1 through #4 are basically settled science. Most of those who are serious climate skeptics (i.e. actual people in the debate, not us) agree with that. At this time, #5 through #9 are not established, but all of those who are serious climate alarmists assume that they are--or at the very least we should stop emitting carbon due to the precautionary principle. 

Where the actual SCIENTIFIC debate is happening is on points #5 and #6 -- what is the level of climate sensitivity? Will there be natural cooling effects that offset the CO2 warming? Or will there be positive feedback loops that exaggerate the warming and make it even worse than the CO2 itself would have done? 

That's the important work, because it gives us a better idea of how much warming there will be. 

BUT, it still doesn't answer the question of "what should we do about it", because absent a dire cataclysmic outcome (i.e. Earth's climate destabilizing such that agriculture can't support more than say, 500M humans), the question of what we do about is economic, not scientific.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 11:36:59 AM

When 1 million or 5 million or 20 million Bangladeshis are displaced, the economics of the thing aren't going to seem very important.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 23, 2021, 11:37:55 AM

and it also doesnt answer the question of why should the US jump through hoops handcuffing itself when much of the rest of the world (China) dosent give a rats ass one way or another

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 11:44:33 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 11:36:59 AM

When 1 million or 5 million or 20 million Bangladeshis are displaced, the economics of the thing aren't going to seem very important.

If someone could present a legitimate outline of a PLAN with costs and benefits, I might take this seriously.  I don't want them displaced.  I also don't want to spend trillions of dollars and "discover" it didn't change anything and they got displaced anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 11:56:46 AM

Well the former is certainly more likely than the latter.  So that's fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 12:00:25 PM

I don't think there's any certainty about former or latter at this point

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2021, 12:01:30 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 11:36:59 AM

When 1 million or 5 million or 20 million Bangladeshis are displaced, the economics of the thing aren't going to seem very important.

And there you go. You just *assumed* that this will happen. 

The discussions of widespread displacements are expected to occur gradually, over several generations. Even if everything the climate alarmists say is true, it's not like one morning we're just going wake up to have to deal with 20M Bangladeshis who are out of their homes. 

And you know what the world has done for most of human history? Dealt with displaced populations. Often times it's due to war, their own despotic governments, or famine. Why is there a "Little Saigon" near me in Westminster CA? Because people fled post-war Vietnam. Why is Miami full of Cubans? Because people fled the early Castro regime. Why is Boston so Irish? Because of the potato famine. 

You think that with economic growth over the next 20-50 years [or more] we can't handle 20M displaced Bangladeshis? 

That's why this is an economic argument. Because sometimes the cost of fixing a problem is less than the cost of dealing with a problem, particularly when the cost of fixing it is bad now and impairs our ability to deal with something that's a) far away and b) not assured of happening. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 23, 2021, 12:03:29 PM

The Bangladeshis will finally have an opportunity to use their webbed hands and feet. No displacement necessary. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 12:05:07 PM

that seems a bit insensitive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 12:13:35 PM

I just want to see a decent half baked plan.  The reason there isn't one is because we waited too late by decades, can't use nuclear, and China.

I see no basis for spending trillions on what will reduce global temperatures by an amount that is not measurable.

A cleaner environment, certainly, I'm for it, I'd be for displacing coal burning, but to think wind, solar, and batteries are going to do much of anything useful is mathematically absurd.  They can help, no doubt, but solve?  Not a chance, none.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 01:24:48 PM

It'd be like.....building a 3' wall, wouldn't it?  :88:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2021, 01:39:41 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 01:24:48 PM

It'd be like.....building a 3' wall, wouldn't it?  :88:

If your goal was to make it difficult to transport livestock, then yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 01:47:37 PM

Hadrian's wall pre-dated short ramps?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2021, 01:50:36 PM

Inclined plane, word up.

Simple machines FTW

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 02:59:12 PM

So the Duke boys' special gift was finding inclined planes all around Hazzard County?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2021, 02:59:41 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 02:59:12 PM

So the Duke boys' special gift was finding inclined planes all around Hazzard County? 

Turns out they were scientists.  Who knew?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 03:30:00 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 01:47:37 PM

Hadrian's wall pre-dated short ramps?

apparently, you are not experienced in herding sheep or other livestock

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 23, 2021, 07:21:30 PM

(https://media3.giphy.com/media/mB5OiwwcsPTiw/giphy.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 08:52:00 PM

much talk about China and India ignoring climate change..........

Russia, 4th in the world seems to also be doing nothing.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41825-019-00016-8 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41825-019-00016-8)

This article provides an overview of Russian energy policy in the context of the global energy transition. Russia, ranking fourth in the world in primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, adheres to the strategy of “business as usual” and relies on fossil fuels. Decarbonization of the energy sector is not yet on the horizon: a skeptical attitude towards the problem of global climate change prevails among stakeholders. GDP energy intensity remains high, supported by relatively low energy prices and high cost of capital. The share of solar and wind energy in the energy balance is insignificant and is not expected to exceed 1% by 2040.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 08:54:11 PM

‘Decarbonisation’ may be the wrong goal for energy – here’s why

https://theconversation.com/decarbonisation-may-be-the-wrong-goal-for-energy-heres-why-148388 (https://theconversation.com/decarbonisation-may-be-the-wrong-goal-for-energy-heres-why-148388)

The authors looked at correlations between energy policy and emissions. They noticed that countries pursuing nuclear power don’t tend to have significantly lower levels of carbon emissions, while those committed to renewable energy do tend to be linked with significantly lower national emissions overall. While the study looked at data from 1990 to 2014 and only revealed statistical relationships rather than direct causes, it did show clearly for the first time that countries investing in nuclear power don’t necessarily reduce their carbon emissions.

There’s an important lesson here. If the objective is simply decarbonisation of electricity, then all low-carbon energy sources can be considered equal. But when it actually comes to reaching net-zero emissions as quickly as possible, not all low-carbon energy sources are equally useful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 23, 2021, 09:00:30 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2J05vC3umE0

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2021, 09:49:14 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 03:30:00 PM

apparently, you are not experienced in herding sheep or other livestock

Guilty!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2021, 09:53:25 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 08:52:00 PM

much talk about China and India ignoring climate change..........

Russia, 4th in the world seems to also be doing nothing.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41825-019-00016-8 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41825-019-00016-8)

This article provides an overview of Russian energy policy in the context of the global energy transition. Russia, ranking fourth in the world in primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, adheres to the strategy of “business as usual” and relies on fossil fuels. Decarbonization of the energy sector is not yet on the horizon: a skeptical attitude towards the problem of global climate change prevails among stakeholders. GDP energy intensity remains high, supported by relatively low energy prices and high cost of capital. The share of solar and wind energy in the energy balance is insignificant and is not expected to exceed 1% by 2040.

Of course. 
It's like the luxury of eating healthily......no other country has the luxury that we do of picking how to produce energy, they just need energy.  It's the same as if you were wealthy and learned and wanted to eat a low-carb, low-trans fat diet, BUT the rest of the world is just trying to consume calories.
.
Someone has to be first and model the behavior.  Once other countries get to the point that they have the luxury of picking and choosing, then it'll be possible for them to follow in our footsteps (or not).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 09:53:51 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 08:54:11 PM

‘Decarbonisation’ may be the wrong goal for energy – here’s why

https://theconversation.com/decarbonisation-may-be-the-wrong-goal-for-energy-heres-why-148388 (https://theconversation.com/decarbonisation-may-be-the-wrong-goal-for-energy-heres-why-148388)

The authors looked at correlations between energy policy and emissions. They noticed that countries pursuing nuclear power don’t tend to have significantly lower levels of carbon emissions, while those committed to renewable energy do tend to be linked with significantly lower national emissions overall. While the study looked at data from 1990 to 2014 and only revealed statistical relationships rather than direct causes, it did show clearly for the first time that countries investing in nuclear power don’t necessarily reduce their carbon emissions.

There’s an important lesson here. If the objective is simply decarbonisation of electricity, then all low-carbon energy sources can be considered equal. But when it actually comes to reaching net-zero emissions as quickly as possible, not all low-carbon energy sources are equally useful.

France has a lot of nuclear power percentagewise, around 75%, and low carbon emissions as well.  I don't understand the assertion.

A lot of carbon is generated in transportation of course.  If you replaced your coal with nuclear, your carbon emissions will go down a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 09:55:19 AM

I don't care to "be first".  I care to be rational and sensible, not worried about setting some kind of expensive example for others.

We have plans to spend a ton of money for very very very little benefit, we KNOW that, it's not up for debate by anyone serious about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 10:25:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 09:53:51 AM

France has a lot of nuclear power percentagewise, around 75%, and low carbon emissions as well.  I don't understand the assertion.

A lot of carbon is generated in transportation of course.  If you replaced your coal with nuclear, your carbon emissions will go down a lot.

I didn't follow the logic either, was wondering if youse smart fellers would "get it" or discredit it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 10:30:04 AM

I think we could benefit a lot from nuclear power

problem is the US is scared to death of it

most citizens just dont want to live within 50 miles of a nuclear plant

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 10:41:25 AM

shoot, a bunch of South Dakota rural folks didn't want to live within 10 miles of an oil refinery

some folks here in Iowa didn't want to live within 10 miles of a pork packing plant

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 10:42:47 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 10:30:04 AM

I think we could benefit a lot from nuclear power

problem is the US is scared to death of it

most citizens just dont want to live within 50 miles of a nuclear plant

Austin pulled out of STNP in the 80s.  It was controversial at the time, now nobody even remembers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 24, 2021, 11:12:05 AM

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/AcademicEasygoingArrowana-small.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:22:13 AM

The French use nukes for 75% of their power.  It poked out as an issue and Macron initially said they would move away from nukes, then someone did some math for him.

The Germans are replacing their nukes with coal, in part, yay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 24, 2021, 11:23:33 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2021, 09:53:25 AM

Of course.
It's like the luxury of eating healthily......no other country has the luxury that we do of picking how to produce energy, they just need energy.  It's the same as if you were wealthy and learned and wanted to eat a low-carb, low-trans fat diet, BUT the rest of the world is just trying to consume calories.
.
Someone has to be first and model the behavior.  Once other countries get to the point that they have the luxury of picking and choosing, then it'll be possible for them to follow in our footsteps (or not).

So let's see how this works...

• America raises the price of energy, causing the price of all domestic goods and services to increase markedly. 
• This reduces international demand for carbon-based energy, thus [due to simple supply/demand] reducing the costs of all other countries who still rely on carbon-bases energy sources.
• This imbalance causes even more production of goods to be outsourced to other countries because the relative costs of productions have increased in the US and decreased everywhere else.
• America's economic growth declines while other countries' economic growth increases, reducing America's relative stature in the world and leads to the resurgence of Russia and the growth of China into a superpower on par with America.
• The net result is that we've done nothing to curb global warming; we've just shifted economic activity out of the US and into other countries. 

I'm not sure this is the best sales strategy for American voters... But go with it and see where it gets ya!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 11:24:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:22:13 AM

The French use nukes for 75% of their power.  It poked out as an issue and Macron initially said they would move away from nukes, then someone did some math for him.

The Germans are replacing their nukes with coal, in part, yay.

isnt there a way to capture a major portion of the co2 released by a coal power plant

I thought we had the technology to do that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:25:35 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 11:24:42 AM

isnt there a way to capture a major portion of the co2 released by a coal power plant

I thought we had the technology to do that

Not practicably, it's terribly expensive and requires enormous power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:27:15 AM

I have not seen a person without a mask inside a store in ages around here.  I used to see one on occasion.

Same with inside our building, we had one guy who refused to wear a mask, I once barred his entry into the elevator and told him to get the next one.  He grunted at me.  "We" apparently fined him and I have not seen him around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:27:18 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:22:13 AM

The French use nukes for 75% of their power.  It poked out as an issue and Macron initially said they would move away from nukes, then someone did some math for him.

The Germans are replacing their nukes with coal, in part, yay.

no wonder it's called the Paris Agreement

I guess that's ok, but the Wuhan Virus is bad? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:28:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:27:15 AM

I have not seen a person without a mask inside a store in ages around here.  I used to see one on occasion.

Same with inside our building, we had one guy who refused to wear a mask, I once barred his entry into the elevator and told him to get the next one.  He grunted at me.  "We" apparently fined him and I have not seen him around.

lots of folks not wear masks now that the Governor removed the statewide mandate

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2021, 11:31:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:25:35 AM

Not practicably, it's terribly expensive and requires enormous power.

Some of you don't seem to understand that every new technology starts out this way.  Now obviously, not all of them pan out successfully, but every new, great idea starts out with a low volume, high pricetag birth.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2021, 11:33:24 AM

And France hasn't had any nuclear issues, that I'm aware of.  Probably because it's not on a tectonic fault line and doesn't employ idiots at these facilities.  Nuclear is a great energy source.  

Imagine if we hadn't taken a 25-year break from it - how improved it could be today from 25 year's worth of advances.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:35:25 AM

https://globalecoguy.org/7-reasons-why-artificial-carbon-removal-is-overhyped-887311d079 (https://globalecoguy.org/7-reasons-why-artificial-carbon-removal-is-overhyped-887311d079)


1. It’s Still Tiny, Even After Billions of Tax Dollars

2. Even If it Scales, Artificial Carbon Removal Will Still be a Small Player

3. Nature Can Do a Better Job

4. The Technology Has a Big Footprint

5. It Perpetuates Injustice

6. It Distracts Attention from Cutting Emissions

7. Fossil Fuel Companies Use It for Profit and to Delay Climate Action

The fossil fuel industry loves this technology, as it gives the illusion that we can use fossil fuels without climate consequences. All while making huge sums of money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:37:13 AM

https://www.fastcompany.com/90457746/trees-big-fans-and-deep-rooted-plants-how-to-suck-2-gigatons-of-carbon-from-the-atmosphere (https://www.fastcompany.com/90457746/trees-big-fans-and-deep-rooted-plants-how-to-suck-2-gigatons-of-carbon-from-the-atmosphere)

Trees, big fans, and deep-rooted plants: How to suck 2 gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere

Even if we hit “deep decarbonization” by 2050, we’ll most likely need to find a way to be continuously removing carbon emissions from the air. A new report explains how.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 11:45:53 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 24, 2021, 11:23:33 AM

So let's see how this works...

• America raises the price of energy, causing the price of all domestic goods and services to increase markedly.
• This reduces international demand for carbon-based energy, thus [due to simple supply/demand] reducing the costs of all other countries who still rely on carbon-bases energy sources.
• This imbalance causes even more production of goods to be outsourced to other countries because the relative costs of productions have increased in the US and decreased everywhere else.
• America's economic growth declines while other countries' economic growth increases, reducing America's relative stature in the world and leads to the resurgence of Russia and the growth of China into a superpower on par with America.
• The net result is that we've done nothing to curb global warming; we've just shifted economic activity out of the US and into other countries.

I'm not sure this is the best sales strategy for American voters... But go with it and see where it gets ya!

Yup.  We can't-- and won't-- make other nations care.  It'll never happen.  All we can do is hamstring ourselves globally, even moreso than we already do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 12:12:49 PM

that's it!

I'm signing a petition

no more money spent on decarbonization!!!

who's with me??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 12:28:39 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 12:12:49 PM

that's it!

I'm signing a petition

no more money spent on decarbonization!!!

who's with me??

:You_Rock_Emoticon:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 03:23:53 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2021, 11:31:21 AM

Some of you don't seem to understand that every new technology starts out this way.  Now obviously, not all of them pan out successfully, but every new, great idea starts out with a low volume, high pricetag birth. 

You might not understand the concept of entropy.

Thermodynamics is the final vote here, in all cases, there is no out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 04:00:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 03:23:53 PM

You might not understand the concept of entropy.

Thermodynamics is the final vote here, in all cases, there is no out.

out from what

when the world doesnt do anything what happens and when will it happen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 04:17:34 PM

There is nothing in terms of some future development that can be an "out", or work around, from the laws of thermodynamics.

You can get "around" entropy only with the expense of enthalpy.  It is a natural law.

Trying to remove something at a level 400 ppm from air is going to be expensive.  Doable, but expensive.

Delta G = Delta H - T Delta S

Words to live by.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 24, 2021, 04:29:52 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 04:00:57 PM

out from what

The inevitable heat death of the universe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 04:38:34 PM

Imagine a million marbles and 410 of them are blue and you want to pick out that 410.  It takes energy (and discrimination ability), a lot of energy, there is no way around this.  One can do it, one could  devise a sorting machine to do it, but it would be energy intensive.

Some things we can't get around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2021, 07:04:56 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:37:13 AM

Even if we hit “deep decarbonization” by 2050, we’ll most likely need to find a way to be continuously removing carbon emissions from the air. 

Well we can start by telling all those Nebraska Fans to stay home.No more all them cars packing the parking lots and filling up their charcoal fired grills.And breaking tremendous amount of wind while doing it.That's gotta be worth something

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 24, 2021, 07:26:37 PM

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/87f7e3113e034f37d4679e10d3e88ff4/tenor.gif?itemid=8869210)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 08:43:43 AM

yup, we haven't even started to blame Mexico

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 25, 2021, 11:54:36 AM

We're in late March and it's still routinely below 50 every morning in Phoenix.  I assume that's weird.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 02:24:32 PM

very nice spring weather here.  even saw the sun this morning

57 degrees and cloudy tomorrow, not too much wind

great Friday afternoon to take off and play golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 25, 2021, 02:54:51 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 24, 2021, 07:26:37 PM

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/87f7e3113e034f37d4679e10d3e88ff4/tenor.gif?itemid=8869210)

This is an example of natural, sudden change.  We find these in the geological record because they were so sudden.

In a million years, beings will be able to find our sudden contribution, too, in all likelihood.  But it was created, not natural.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 03:03:11 PM

I'd just like to see at least an outline of some plan, somewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2021, 03:11:40 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 03:03:11 PM

I'd just like to see at least an outline of some plan, somewhere.

Y'all should call your congresscritters and let them know.

For a cool million, I'll write an outline of a plan*.

 * Results and cost effectiveness will be estimates and not guaranteed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 03:59:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 03:03:11 PM

I'd just like to see at least an outline of some plan, somewhere.

give it up, Man

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2021, 04:00:41 PM

I'd just like to see at least an outline of some plan, somewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 25, 2021, 04:07:22 PM

I'd like to see a detailed plan with cost-benefit analysis and clear assumptions stated for expectations of participation by all global polluters.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 04:25:27 PM

clear assumptions???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 04:40:02 PM

Well, it's good if assumptions are made clear along with the basis for them.

The idea "we" should just throw money at it and expect something positive to happen is idiotic policy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 04:48:29 PM

like assuming that China, India, Russia, and Mexico will do nothing?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 05:02:30 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 04:48:29 PM

like assuming that China, India, Russia, and Mexico will do nothing?

You could assume that, or that they do something.  But we only control what we do here.  Imagine every country makes it to carbon neutral by 2050, how much does that limit increase in global T by 2100?  Just with that as a GOAL, no enablement, how beneficial is it>

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 05:12:04 PM

you haven't been able to find those numbers?

or you're skeptical of the numbers?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 05:13:05 PM

The study also concluded that EU 2050 climate neutrality, if achieved, will likely cause only a very small decrease in the average global atmospheric temperature increase, estimated at between 0.05°C and 0.15°C in 2100, and no more than between 0.02°C and 0.06°C in 2050, assuming no carbon leakage occurs. Electricity-generating technologies therefore should be evaluated for the degree to which they constitute ‘no regrets’ solutions.

Road to Climate Neutrality | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/08/road-to-climate-neutrality/)

If we extrapolate from the EU to the world, that means by 2100, the global T might drop by about 0.6°C or so,  if Europe provides -0.1°C, the rest of the world might do 5 times that roughly.  

A lot of the increase is already baked in even if we went neutral TODAY.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 05:13:50 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 05:12:04 PM

you haven't been able to find those numbers?

or you're skeptical of the numbers?

It's a salient question, and the fact the numbers are not easy to come by on line is a sign also.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 25, 2021, 07:10:15 PM

I'm waiting for for the plan how on we deal with this, too.  Carbon in atmosphere rises, and there is almost no plan anywhere in the world to reduce it. My youngest daughter turns 6 in a couple weeks. She (will hopefully) be an old lady in 2100. There is no plan to reduce or even slow the rate of carbon, and the resulting damage with it.  Simply get as much as we can out of a cheap energy source and let the next generations deal with it. That is the plan. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2021, 07:17:51 AM

I don't see much value in sarcasm in lieu of some serious discussion.

But, have at it if that is all you can offer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2021, 07:55:46 AM

I didn't read Max's post as sarcasm, but rather as genuine concern.  

I get it, and I share it.

But that doesn't change the fact that nobody has an actual plan.  Not even the guys from Team A who bust on the guys from Team B for not giving a shit about the environment.  Neither team gives enough of a shit to come up with a plan, but only one team uses it as a talking point in their party platform, to bust on the other team.  It's silly and it's pointless but it's typical political bullshit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 26, 2021, 08:13:39 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2021, 03:11:40 PM

Y'all should call your congresscritters and let them know.

For a cool million, I'll write an outline of a plan*.

 * Results and cost effectiveness will be estimates and not guaranteed.

You should just run for congress I'm sure some lobbyist will have a shifty way of getting it to you.Park benches,back alley's,Wharehouse loading docks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 08:40:59 AM

there's no real plan, just invest in wind and solar

hope for a breakthrough on many fronts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 09:58:33 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 08:40:59 AM

there's no real plan, just invest in wind and solar

hope for a breakthrough on many fronts

and pray it doesnt freeze

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 26, 2021, 09:59:38 AM

We won't do anything that productive until conditions get really radical.  When there's 9 super-hurricanes in a year or 5 tornadoes erase Wichita off the map or Bangladesh, Florida, and most islands don't exist anymore.

The current reasoning is "it's too expensive."  And it is.  But also, things are going to get worse - way worse.  And only when there's a tipping point from "it's too expensive to do it" to "it's too costly not to" will any meaningful action take place.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 26, 2021, 10:01:39 AM

An actual plan would be a paradigm shift of throwing away carbon-producing methods/actions/existence into one that doesn't.  Across the board.  A new way of living.  Simpler, and only adopting technologies that vibe in accordance with nature. 
Internal-combustion engine?  Gone.  Illegal.  You get $5 for every one you turn in.  Is that aluminum can produced with no carbon footprint?  If not, boom - gone.  Now drinks are stored in hemp containers or yak bones or whatever the hell.  Radical changes are the only way.  People don't want that, so it won't happen...until it must.

You know, hippy-silly BS like that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 10:02:32 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 09:58:33 AM

and pray it doesnt freeze

doesn't freeze in Iowa at -28

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:13:33 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 10:02:32 AM

doesn't freeze in Iowa at -28

and what % of Iowa's energy is supplied by wind and sun

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:20:53 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:13:33 AM

and what % of Iowa's energy is supplied by wind and sun

I looked it up Iowa gets 42% of it energy from wind

if true you guys need to tell us Texans how you did it cause we cant seem to manage that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2021, 10:29:00 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:20:53 AM

I looked it up Iowa gets 42% of it energy from wind

if true you guys need to tell us Texans how you did it cause we cant seem to manage that

It's already been noted that TPTB who manage the wind turbines in Texas didn't properly winterize them.  It's costly and I guess they figured they didn't need to do it because it's Texas.  They were wrong.  Terribly terribly wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:29:15 AM

as a follow up I found this concerning cold weather and wind turbines

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2021/02/16/why-wind-turbines-in-cold-climates-dont-freeze-de-icing-and-carbon-fiber/?sh=48bcd8091f59

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:30:01 AM

Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2021, 10:29:00 AM

It's already been noted that TPTB who manage the wind turbines in Texas didn't properly winterize them.  It's costly and I guess they figured they didn't need to do it because it's Texas.  They were wrong.  Terribly terribly wrong.

yep Im sure we are correcting that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2021, 10:38:20 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:30:01 AM

yep Im sure we are correcting that

Sure hope so.  It's up to We The People to hold our elected officials accountable and ensure they don't drop the ball--or worse, get bought off by private interests.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2021, 10:48:39 AM

Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2021, 10:38:20 AM

Sure hope so.  It's up to We The People to hold our elected officials accountable and ensure they don't drop the ball--or worse, get bought off by private interests.

So you're saying we're screwed, then? :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2021, 10:50:46 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 26, 2021, 10:01:39 AM

An actual plan would be a paradigm shift of throwing away carbon-producing methods/actions/existence into one that doesn't.  Across the board.  A new way of living.  Simpler, and only adopting technologies that vibe in accordance with nature.
Internal-combustion engine?  Gone.  Illegal.  You get $5 for every one you turn in.  Is that aluminum can produced with no carbon footprint?  If not, boom - gone.  Now drinks are stored in hemp containers or yak bones or whatever the hell.  Radical changes are the only way.  People don't want that, so it won't happen...until it must.

You know, hippy-silly BS like that. 

Yep, and a move away from industrial farming so that we can only support, say, 2-3B humans on the planet.

As for the other ones that we can't feed?


(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/40/d9/3d/40d93dfa05d4afc6470ad2da814a7824.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 10:52:36 AM

what happened last February is unacceptable and I have full faith in our Governor to fix it

and if he doesnt well theres always Matthew McConaughey

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2021, 11:11:36 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2021, 10:48:39 AM

So you're saying we're screwed, then? :57:

Heh, probably.

I've certainly already sent sternly worded messages to MY representatives, letting them know my expectation that this becomes their #1 priority to get fixed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 08:34:32 PM

should a 100 year storm or cold front really be figured into plans?

or maybe some other alternative be developed for such once in a lifetime extremes?

Mid-American energy is my provider in Iowa, owned by Warren Buffett

over 50% wind and solar

but, I can see the coal plant from my back porch

hopefully soon to be converted to natural gas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 09:02:03 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 08:34:32 PM

should a 100 year storm or cold front really be figured into plans?

or maybe some other alternative be developed for such once in a lifetime extremes?

Mid-American energy is my provider in Iowa, owned by Warren Buffett

over 50% wind and solar

but, I can see the coal plant from my back porch

hopefully soon to be converted to natural gas

they need to figure what ever for it not to happen again

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 09:17:22 PM

it's a cost analyst thing

it wasn't THAT bad last month

there was damage, broken water pipes and such

were folks hospitalized or deaths?

some steps obviously need to be taken, to minimize damage, but not all wind turbines need to be winterized for below zero temps

hell, just fly to Cancun for a week or two next time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2021, 11:35:09 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 26, 2021, 09:17:22 PM

it's a cost analyst thing

it wasn't THAT bad last month

there was damage, broken water pipes and such

were folks hospitalized or deaths?

some steps obviously need to be taken, to minimize damage, but not all wind turbines need to be winterized for below zero temps

hell, just fly to Cancun for a week or two next time

Last I saw there were 11 deaths from that freeze

again they need to do whatever is needed to avoid that ever happening again

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 09:58:13 AM

agreed that the power company needs to maintain the grid and reinvest in it to provide reliable power

odd that Texas decided to go it alone and not be regulated by the feds and not be able to get help from their neighbors

I certainly don't know how much this was a cause of the problem, but......... seems like they then have to own the issues

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2021, 10:08:50 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 09:58:13 AM

agreed that the power company needs to maintain the grid and reinvest in it to provide reliable power

odd that Texas decided to go it alone and not be regulated by the feds and not be able to get help from their neighbors

I certainly don't know how much this was a cause of the problem, but......... seems like they then have to own the issues

Texans arent blaming anyone but Texans

I have no problem with stand alone power grid but when you go it alone you better be able to deliver

The power companies are regulated by the state whose responsibility it is to make sure the power companies

have taken proper steps to avoid this in the future

I cant over emphasize just how pissed off we Texans are over this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 10:20:25 AM

I'd guess the state will throw tax dollars at the problem and fix the grid

this will probably be good for the next 20 years or so

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2021, 10:44:55 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 10:20:25 AM

I'd guess the state will throw tax dollars at the problem and fix the grid

this will probably be good for the next 20 years or so

do you have any suggestions 

fixing problems means using tax dollars which Texans are all too happy to do if in fact it fixes the problem

not sure why you say 20 years 

if it fixes the problem today then with proper maintenance it should fix it much longer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 10:59:11 AM

IMO, the power companies should have been building and maintaining the grid properly all along with the profits from their customers

probably went into bank accounts of execs, investors, and lobbyists instead

shouldn't have required  state monies

new upgrades are like anything, they age over time, maybe it's 30 years instead of 20.  Don't know.

I'm hoping the fiber optic cable I put in the ground today is good for 30+ years, but the electronics on each end won't be.  Same with power transmission.

if the power companies are held accountable by regulators to reinvest and maintain things properly going forward, problem solved

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2021, 11:42:25 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 10:59:11 AM

IMO, the power companies should have been building and maintaining the grid properly all along with the profits from their customers

probably went into bank accounts of execs, investors, and lobbyists instead

shouldn't have required  state monies

new upgrades are like anything, they age over time, maybe it's 30 years instead of 20.  Don't know.

I'm hoping the fiber optic cable I put in the ground today is good for 30+ years, but the electronics on each end won't be.  Same with power transmission.

if the power companies are held accountable by regulators to reinvest and maintain things properly going forward, problem solved

Thats the plan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 05:28:42 PM

that was the plan 20 years ago too

just saying

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2021, 06:22:07 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2021, 05:28:42 PM

that was the plan 20 years ago too

just saying

thanks for the input

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2021, 12:41:37 PM

Drizzly here in DC, 61 F, cherry trees are blooming.

I'm looking for a perfect one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2021, 10:20:57 AM

The Battery That Will Finally Unlock Massless Energy Storage

It could revolutionize electric vehicles and aircraft.


Researchers from Chalmers University of Technology have produced a structural battery that performs ten times better than all previous versions. It contains carbon fibre that serves simultaneously as an electrode, conductor, and load-bearing material. Their latest research breakthrough paves the way for essentially 'massless' energy storage in vehicles and other technology.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210322091632.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210322091632.htm)
 (https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a35902755/structural-battery-massless-energy-storage/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 03, 2021, 09:01:10 AM

https://youtu.be/N-yALPEpV4w


Environmentalists have long promoted renewable energy sources like solar panels and wind farms to save the climate. But what about when those technologies destroy the environment? In this provocative talk, Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment” and energy expert, Michael Shellenberger explains why solar and wind farms require so much land for mining and energy production, and an alternative path to saving both the climate and the natural environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2021, 03:53:33 PM

Solar and wind can play a useful role, but they are not some panacea, which is slowly becoming obvious to some who can do a bit of math.

When science and technology collide with public opinion, what we often get is a mess.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2021, 09:02:27 PM

then folks don't want to believe the science 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 04, 2021, 10:36:55 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 22, 2021, 06:58:39 PM

All I know is that I just drove across a snow covered desert in late March.

Two weeks later, the exact same drive; this time in the baking hot sun. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2021, 10:39:35 PM

You should stay out of those Peyote patches

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 04, 2021, 10:53:29 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 04, 2021, 10:39:35 PM

You should stay out of those Peyote patches

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WX7fuu7DgSs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 01:01:54 PM

Barakah unit 1 entered commercial operation today, the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) has announced. The unit, which is operated by Nawah Energy Company, has been the single largest electricity generator in the UAE since reaching 100% power in early December. ENEC said the 1400-megawatt unit, which is in the Al Dhafra region of Abu Dhabi, is now providing "constant, reliable and sustainable electricity around the clock". As a result, ENEC says it is "now leading the largest decarbonisation effort of any industry in the UAE to date".

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UAE-s-first-nuclear-unit-starts-commercial-operati (https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UAE-s-first-nuclear-unit-starts-commercial-operati)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 01:03:13 PM

Diamond battery powered by nuclear waste runs for 28,000 years
Would you use one in your phone though?

A U.S. startup combined radioactive isotopes from nuclear waste with ultra-slim layers of nanodiamonds to assemble a ridiculous battery that allegedly can last 28,000 years.

According to the California startup in question, called NDB (Nano Diamond Battery), their product is a “high-power diamond-based alpha, beta, and neutron voltaic battery.”


https://www.zmescience.com/science/diamond-battery-powered-by-nuclear-waste-runs-for-28000-years/amp/ (https://www.zmescience.com/science/diamond-battery-powered-by-nuclear-waste-runs-for-28000-years/amp/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 01:08:39 PM

Almost every major city in the Czech Republic has a system of combined heat and power stations that are mainly fueled by coal. However, as the European Union gradually moves away from coal as an energy source, those cities are urgently looking for alternatives. While it is technologically possible to make the transition from coal to natural gas, the heat is likely to be much more expensive as a result.

Researchers at the Czech Technical University in Prague and the University of West Bohemia in Pilsen have come up with an innovative solution: the Teplator, a system which uses the radioactive decay heat produced by spent fuel rods from nuclear reactors to heat water. The team, led by Radek Skoda, has already been granted a patent for the concept and design of what it says is a very cost-effective alternative to coal and gas-powered plants.

Skoda, of the Czech Technical University, told DW that the project was particularly noteworthy because it allows power stations to generate heat from spent fuel elements that otherwise would have to be stored and cooled at great expense for many years.


https://www.dw.com/en/czech-researchers-develop-revolutionary-nuclear-heating-plant/a-57072924 (https://www.dw.com/en/czech-researchers-develop-revolutionary-nuclear-heating-plant/a-57072924)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 03:09:26 PM

San Diego-based Aptera has just unveiled a new solar-based three-wheeler it claims doesn’t require charging—but just happens to have 1,000-mile battery-electric range for good measure.

The futuristic trike, which has an almost Jetsons flying car-like aesthetic, features more than 32 square feet of solar panels that are integrated into the body. This setup allows the two-seater to travel up to 45 miles a day and up to 11,000 miles per year on energy harnessed from the sun, according to the company.


https://robbreport.com/motors/cars/aptera-new-solar-ev-can-cover-1000-miles-no-charging-1234585242/?fbclid=IwAR3Bxz_g4wLlKlH6EcjFvkan9xG2qjd8xuH_LnyM_9oA5O9BMO5FU58y_bk (https://robbreport.com/motors/cars/aptera-new-solar-ev-can-cover-1000-miles-no-charging-1234585242/?fbclid=IwAR3Bxz_g4wLlKlH6EcjFvkan9xG2qjd8xuH_LnyM_9oA5O9BMO5FU58y_bk)

https://youtu.be/HNjUdTJjiNk

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2021, 03:40:39 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 03:09:26 PM

San Diego-based Aptera has just unveiled a new solar-based three-wheeler it claims doesn’t require charging—but just happens to have 1,000-mile battery-electric range for good measure.

The futuristic trike, which has an almost Jetsons flying car-like aesthetic, features more than 32 square feet of solar panels that are integrated into the body. This setup allows the two-seater to travel up to 45 miles a day and up to 11,000 miles per year on energy harnessed from the sun, according to the company.


https://robbreport.com/motors/cars/aptera-new-solar-ev-can-cover-1000-miles-no-charging-1234585242/?fbclid=IwAR3Bxz_g4wLlKlH6EcjFvkan9xG2qjd8xuH_LnyM_9oA5O9BMO5FU58y_bk (https://robbreport.com/motors/cars/aptera-new-solar-ev-can-cover-1000-miles-no-charging-1234585242/?fbclid=IwAR3Bxz_g4wLlKlH6EcjFvkan9xG2qjd8xuH_LnyM_9oA5O9BMO5FU58y_bk)

https://youtu.be/HNjUdTJjiNk

How badly does the range diminish with my 265# ass in the driver's seat? :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2021, 03:51:07 PM

I don't see 32 sq ft of solar panel on that model.

For a 300-watt solar panel with dimensions 64 inches x 39 inches (1.61 meters squared or 17.31 square feet), the peak instantaneous electricity production per square foot at STC is 14.58 watts per square foot. This is typical for residential solar panels being sold in the US in 2020.

Solar Panel Car Roofs: Are they a good idea? (solarreviews.com) (https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/solar-panel-car-roofs-are-they-a-good-idea)


A few years ago, we did the math on how many solar panels you need to charge an electric car (https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/how-do-tesla-chargers-compare-to-other-electric-car-chargers). Looking at the Nissan Leaf, at 50 miles per day, we came up with a total of 3.44 kilowatts of solar panels. Some of the best home solar panels on the market make around 345 watts under full sun. You’d need 10 of them to make enough solar energy to power the Nissan Leaf, a small sedan, on its daily journey from work to home, if you drive 25 miles each way.

That’s 250 square feet of solar panels on IDEAL roof space in order to make that much energy.

That’s why solar powered cars aren’t practical. There simply isn’t enough surface area on a car to allow the solar cells to generate enough electricity for the average driver, especially considering the surfaces of a car aren’t always pointed in the right direction or not under shade.

That impracticality isn’t stopping automakers, though. At least a few of them have added photovoltaic cells under special glass on their cars. Some manufacturers add a solar roof or hood, and at least one also puts cells into the door and quarter panels.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2021, 04:22:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2021, 03:51:07 PM

Solar Panel Car Roofs: Are they a good idea? (solarreviews.com) (https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/solar-panel-car-roofs-are-they-a-good-idea)

The better question is whether they're useful enough to be worth it. 

Yes, for the obvious points that article makes, a fully solar-powered car isn't practical. 

However, for a car that is powered by electricity, the sun is free. The question becomes whether the amount of electricity provided by the sun realistically makes the cost of the solar panels and associated charging electronics worth it. Every kWh that comes from the sun offsets one that comes from your power company, so the question is how long it takes to amortize the cost of the panels?

If for a typical consumer the solar panels in a car "pay for themselves" in 6 months, I'd say keep putting them on. If it's going to take 25 years, well, then it's pretty much pointless for a consumer to pay extra for them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2021, 04:32:28 PM

Looks like a gimmick to me, something that sounds good but is expensive and contributes little to a car's range, like practicably speaking maybe 5 miles.

Your better off with a home PV system optimized for angle to the sun to charge your EV.  And if you have accident damage, you won't have PV damage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2021, 04:40:58 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2021, 04:32:28 PM

Looks like a gimmick to me, something that sounds good but is expensive and contributes little to a car's range, like practicably speaking maybe 5 miles.

Over what time horizon? Per day? 

If you keep an EV, say, 5 years, that's 1826.25 days. Which means that you'll have generated over 9,000 miles worth of range. 

This Car and Driver article (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35152087/tesla-model-3-charging-costs-per-mile/) says the average cost per mile of electricity is 5.5c. Which would put the cost of that electricity at about $500.

So if the additional cost of the panels and charging electronics in the car's design is <$500, you're coming out ahead. 

Quote

Your better off with a home PV system optimized for angle to the sun to charge your EV.  And if you have accident damage, you won't have PV damage.

True, but home PV systems have a MUCH higher acquisition cost. 

If I'm buying an EV and I have a choice between a $500 option on the EV to add solar charging, or I need to spend $10,000+ to put a solar system onto my roof, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2021, 04:48:14 PM

Electricity here is 6 cents per kwhr, which is low of course.  A Chevy Bolt has a 66 kwhr battery and 256 mile range (numbers from memory, might be wrong).

So, I could charge that sucker for under $4?  And drive 256 miles.  That C&D figure may have been for California costs or something.

How Much Does It Cost to Charge a Chevy Bolt EV? In short, the Bolt EV costs around $7-8 to charge its 60kWh battery pack at home. Electricity rates vary across the U.S. of course, but the average price is 13.27 cents per kWh according to U.S. Energy and Information Administration (EIA) figures for July 2019.Sep 30, 2019

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2021, 05:20:07 PM

Yeah, the C&D article used the national average. 

I agree with you in principle that solar charging on vehicles is mostly more about looking green and high-tech than it is about a good economic decision--if it was good economically you'd see it on all the new EVs coming out. It's probably a gimmick.

That said, like anything it all eventually comes down to an economic decision. If PV cell efficiency or cost improve, it will probably start to make some sense to integrate it into the vehicle. It may never be a significant amount of charge per day, but could pay for itself quickly enough with free energy from the sun to be worth it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2021, 05:34:18 PM

So, $7.50 for enough to drive 256 miles.  That would take about ten gallons with an equivalent ICE vehicle, close to $25.  An extra 5 miles doesn't cost very much at all.

My GTI got over 40 mpg on the trip up to DC, only 35 coming back, I guess it's uphill.  (We hit traffic and that includes some city driving.)  I'm pretty happy with a car with decent space inside and good acceleration that can exceed 35 mpg.  It gets 25-27 around town.

The wife had wanted a convertible and I am recently "cashed up" and had been looking and she said she just wants to stay with the GTI.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2021, 05:48:50 PM

As I've mentioned, I'm somewhat car-committed for at least another 5+ years or so due to the kids [and dog]. The Flex guzzles gas like a pig and is the size of a rhino, but I swear the driver's seat is a La-Z-Boy... Surprisingly it handles pretty well for its heft, as it's low and wide compared to a typical SUV. 

By that point, I might be considering EV.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2021, 05:52:09 PM

Our HOA added two charging stations in the parking lot.  I read the instructions, it's pay for play.  I don't know how long one can park the car in those spots, they are outside.  Looks like a fast charging gig, third party, I'm not sure how many types they fit.  I'll take a photo.

I think the numbers are getting close now to making an EV smaller car look like an option.  No oil changes, brake pads last forever, no engine related filters or fluids.

They have good acceleration but often have those high mileage tires with longer stopping distances.

And we have another nuke supposed to power up later this year, and another one the year after.  But most of it is from coal here.

The grid is going to need some changes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 07:19:10 PM

Electricity here is about 6 cents per kwhr

but, I'm within 10 miles of the coal plant

folks in the rural area with the rural electric coop pay about 4 times that much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 08, 2021, 08:46:33 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 07:19:10 PM

Electricity here is about 6 cents per kwhr

but, I'm within 10 miles of the coal plant

folks in the rural area with the rural electric coop pay about 4 times that much

I pay 11.5 cents here in Houston locked in for 3 years

course if it gets real cold my rate might go to 0

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 09:43:32 PM

hmmm, you'd think since they were saving money by not maintaining the grid, they could pass those savings on to the customers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 08, 2021, 10:08:41 PM

still waiting for my check

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2021, 08:50:02 AM

I was paying about 6.6 cents in Cincy, some areas much have high prices indeed, (CA).

I ran numbers a few years back on a whole house PV gig and it was not remotely close to paying out.

I have wondered if we could do something with the condo roof.  We get rent from some folks who have antennae on top of us.  Probably causes COVID.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2021, 08:51:26 AM

The Imaginary Climate Crisis: How can we Change the Message? A talk by Richard Lindzen – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/07/the-imaginary-climate-crisis-how-can-we-change-the-message-a-talk-by-richard-lindzen/)

A piece from a dude who thinks this is all over blown and much ado about little.  I hope he's right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 09, 2021, 09:57:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 09, 2021, 08:50:02 AM

I was paying about 6.6 cents in Cincy, some areas much have high prices indeed, (CA).

I ran numbers a few years back on a whole house PV gig and it was not remotely close to paying out.

I have wondered if we could do something with the condo roof.  We get rent from some folks who have antennae on top of us.  Probably causes COVID.

Can't seem to find my previous eBills, but I think I pay $0.14 for the first tier of service, and it jumps to $0.22 for the second tier, which we usually *just* hit most months. That's for 1200 sf with almost never running A/C, although we now have 5 fridges...

When I was a homeowner, my view was that I'd look at solar at the same time I needed to replace the roof anyway, and not sooner. I do think solar adds to resale value here. 

I think the math works more in California because our electricity is more expensive AND we get tons of sun... I'd consider it just so I can run the crap out of my air conditioner for "free"--it's a quality of life thing lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 09, 2021, 09:59:01 AM

Ran into the neighbor who is selling his house this morning--the one I sent the link for last week.

It was listed for $870K. He told me this morning it's now under contract, and they had to choose which of the two $950K (!) offers they wanted to accept. 

Insanity. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on April 09, 2021, 10:12:12 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 09, 2021, 09:59:01 AM

Ran into the neighbor who is selling his house this morning--the one I sent the link for last week.

It was listed for $870K. He told me this morning it's now under contract, and they had to choose which of the two $950K (!) offers they wanted to accept.

Insanity.

Dying state

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2021, 10:28:33 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 08, 2021, 10:08:41 PM

still waiting for my check

ha

got a stimulus check yesterday
$2800
didn't think I'd get anything
got mine and my daughter's who was a dependent on the 2019 tax return
I have the day off - going to the golf course!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2021, 11:04:36 AM

No stimulus for me, I was shocked at how much we "made" last year in taxable income.  I should be traveling more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2021, 10:06:51 PM

I have no confidence in the Feds to send checks properly

my AGI was easily north of the limit

my last 2 stimulus payments were direct deposits to my bank account as my  Fed tax refund has been for years

this was a paper check sent to my PO box

just strange

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2021, 10:31:00 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 10, 2021, 10:06:51 PM

I have no confidence in the Feds to send checks properly

my AGI was easily north of the limit

my last 2 stimulus payments were direct deposits to my bank account as my  Fed tax refund has been for years

this was a paper check sent to my PO box

just strange

got my last stimulus check in the mail also

never got the very first stimulus money so it went on my 2020 tax return for a refund

still waiting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2021, 09:58:07 AM

My daughter got her check in the mail last week she said.  The other one makes too much.

The daughter lives in C-bus and is doing quite well for herself financially.  She probably should loosen up and spend more, we chatted about this when she visited.

She always has been frugal to a fault.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2021, 09:50:53 PM

her heirs will take care of that

as will mine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2021, 09:33:40 AM

Ha well quit buying range balls FF

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2021, 09:36:09 AM

Spring around here really is spectacular.  I recall watching the Masters in Cincy when it was raining and cold outside.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 12, 2021, 03:34:56 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2021, 11:04:36 AM

No stimulus for me, I was shocked at how much we "made" last year in taxable income.  I should be traveling more.

I didn't even look at the cut-off level for any of the stimulus check, I knew I wasn't getting any of them.  It is amazing how "rich" I am and not really feel like I have that much extra money.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2021, 04:12:45 PM

it's socially acceptable to hate rich folks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2021, 04:26:48 PM

I hate poor folks.  They smell bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2021, 04:59:31 PM

Is it OK to laugh at this nonsense?

MSNBC anchor cites climate change as major reason for migrant surge | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-anchor-climate-change-migrant-surge)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2021, 05:06:41 PM

no, that would be racist

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 03:53:02 PM

65 deg yesterday suppose to start snowing tonite @ 11PM thru noon Wednesday :41:
Almost drained the gas out of the Blower.Beisbol started 3 weeks ago

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 03:56:30 PM

snowed here yesterday morning - a real shitter on Monday

might get another dusting tonight/tomorrow morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 01:40:27 PM

Despite pandemic shutdowns, carbon dioxide and methane surged in 2020 - Welcome to NOAA Research (https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2742/Despite-pandemic-shutdowns-carbon-dioxide-and-methane-surged-in-2020)

Levels of the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, continued their unrelenting rise in 2020 despite the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic response, NOAA announced today.

(https://research.noaa.gov/Portals/0/EasyDNNNews/thumbs/2742/21802020-Global-Monthly-Mean.png) (https://research.noaa.gov/Portals/0/EasyGalleryImages/1/843/2020-Global-Monthly-Mean.png)
These graphs depict the mean global atmospheric burden of carbon dioxide as analyzed from measurements collected by NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. Credit: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory.

The global surface average for carbon dioxide (CO2), calculated from measurements collected at NOAA’s remote sampling locations, was 412.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2020, rising by 2.6 ppm during the year. The global rate of increase was the fifth-highest in NOAA’s 63-year record, following 1987, 1998, 2015 and 2016. The annual mean at NOAA's Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii was 414.4 ppm during 2020.
Economic slowdown prevented a record increase in CO2
The economic recession was estimated to have reduced carbon emissions by about 7 percent  (https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3269/2020/)during 2020. Without the economic slowdown, the 2020 increase would have been the highest on record, according to Pieter Tans, senior scientist at NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about.html). Since 2000, the global CO2 average has grown by 43.5 ppm, an increase of 12 percent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 01:41:40 PM

I just don't see a practicable solution here.  Throwing money at it with no consideration for facts is stupid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 01:46:41 PM

7 Reasons Why Artificial Carbon Removal is Overhyped | by Dr. Jonathan Foley | Mar, 2021 | GlobalEcoGuy.org (https://globalecoguy.org/7-reasons-why-artificial-carbon-removal-is-overhyped-887311d079)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 21, 2021, 01:47:15 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 01:41:40 PM

I just don't see a practicable solution here.  Throwing money at it with no consideration for facts is stupid.

still rising at same rate even though our production was way down?

what does that point to

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 01:58:32 PM

Down 7% in the pandemic, only 7%, not really enough to have much impact at all, and the rate of increase did slow slightly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2021, 02:30:47 PM

Lots and lots of big trucks delivering things to distribution houses, to get to our houses, during the last year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2021, 02:32:58 PM

by 2070 most of the big trucks might be electric

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2021, 02:58:12 PM

I know Elon is all about the electric semi, but I could see hydrogen fuel cells being a better opportunity for long-haul trucking. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 03:14:55 PM

The hydrogen supply, safety, and distribution strike me as challenges.  You can't get it out of the ground.

But heavy vehicles may indeed be better suited to fuel cells.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2021, 03:20:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 03:14:55 PM

The hydrogen supply, safety, and distribution strike me as challenges.  You can't get it out of the ground.

But heavy vehicles may indeed be better suited to fuel cells.

I will admit to not having much expertise on it... I know the advantages are that the byproduct is water, and the speed/ease of refueling relative to BEV. I understand a major disadvantage is that the energy necessary to extract hydrogen from other sources and turn it into usable fuel are quite high, which of course may defeat the purpose of using it if those energy sources are carbon-dependent. 

I think the heavy vehicles expected to run near-continuously may not be ideal for BEV, and we don't want them to keep running on diesel if we can find a cleaner non-emitting alternative. Hydrogen fuel cells *might* be an alternative that fits the use case without emitting CO2 or other pollution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 03:25:24 PM

Yeah, fuel cells are more akin to powerful batteries, as the hydrogen has to be produced initially using energy from somewhere else.

It you had a location with excess energy, it could make sense to make hydrogen there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2021, 05:20:34 PM

the hydrogen bottle we use for fuel cells are very similar to propane bottles

probably as safe as pumping liquid gasoline and diesel fuel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2021, 05:43:31 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2021, 02:58:12 PM

I know Elon is all about the electric semi, but I could see hydrogen fuel cells being a better opportunity for long-haul trucking.

This just made me think of high-speed rail for goods.   
Don't need windows or views or elevated sections, fewer hoops to jump through with no human lives at stake, etc.  
.
And it might just make sense financially.

Crazy?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2021, 05:57:29 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2021, 05:43:31 PM

This just made me think of high-speed rail for goods. 
Don't need windows or views or elevated sections, fewer hoops to jump through with no human lives at stake, etc. 
.
And it might just make sense financially.

Crazy?

What's the point of "high speed" rail for goods? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 07:51:59 PM

Diesel is not flammable.  It is combustible.  You can throw a lit match on it and the flame goes out.

Leaked hydrogen won't pool in low places at least.  But cryogenic hydrogen needs different storage than propane obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2021, 07:56:05 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2021, 07:51:59 PM

Diesel is not flammable.  It is combustible.  You can throw a lit match on it and the flame goes out.

Leaked hydrogen won't pool in low places at least.  But cryogenic hydrogen needs different storage than propane obviously.

Really?

I don't recall for diesel, only gasoline. I remember when my idiot buddies and I were trying to light a bonfire we'd throw gasoline on the pile of logs and throw a lit cigarette on it. And, unlike the movies... Nothing happened. But of course a lit match would do it.

Does diesel not even ignite with a lit match?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 21, 2021, 08:00:25 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/business/tesla-crash-texas.html

no one here has mentioned this so I thought Id post this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 21, 2021, 08:49:01 PM

(https://media4.giphy.com/media/5yLgocCOWDywCQi2g6Y/giphy.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 09:38:15 AM

Biden pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/biden-pledges-to-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-half-by-2030.html)

I'd love to know who anyone plans to achieve this, even in rough outline form.  The transportation sector becomes more important as the power sector starts to drop.  And you need more power if you go to EVs, somehow.  And what MIGHT be the penetration of EVs on the road by 2030?  Trucks?  Almost none.  It's nine years.  Cars?  We could hit ten percent, maybe 20% with a major push by then.  That's a stretch, and 20% wouldn't make more than a small dent.  Trains you can electrify at considerable expense.  Planes?  In my view, this is a ridiculous "goal".

Flavio Lehner, a climate scientist and assistant professor of earth and atmospheric science at Cornell University, said that while it’s ambitious, Biden’s pledge is likely not enough to reach targets under the Paris accord. Global temperature rise also depends largely on what other countries pledge in the next decade.

“Many climate impacts scale almost linearly with warming, so reducing emissions as fast as possible has to remain a key sustained motivation for this and future administrations, irrespective of a particular warming target,” Lehner said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2021, 11:09:12 AM

Drivel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 11:25:50 AM

Yup, and I could get serious about this if "they" would.  This is stuff for show, with zero actual merit or content.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2021, 11:40:56 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 11:25:50 AM

Yup, and I could get serious about this if "they" would.  This is stuff for show, with zero actual merit or content.

they do have an agenda however

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 11:53:39 AM

Fine, everyone has an agenda, it doesn't bother me.  I just would like to see some kind of outline of a "plan". It shouldn't be hard to device, except for the fact it's technically impossible in  nine years.  It's just not going to happen no matter what, so the proposal is just political spin with zero substance.

We had the outline of a plan to land on the Moon in 1961.  That outline matured and evolved of course, but JFK didn't lay that out without any notion of what was needed.  von Braun and folks had laid out a basic plan that was not too far from what happened.  We even knew most of the problems that had to be resolved, aside from the need for an on board computer.  That one was not anticipated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2021, 12:24:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 11:53:39 AM

Fine, everyone has an agenda, it doesn't bother me.  I just would like to see some kind of outline of a "plan". It shouldn't be hard to device, except for the fact it's technically impossible in  nine years.  It's just not going to happen no matter what, so the proposal is just political spin with zero substance.

We had the outline of a plan to land on the Moon in 1961.  That outline matured and evolved of course, but JFK didn't lay that out without any notion of what was needed.  von Braun and folks had laid out a basic plan that was not too far from what happened.  We even knew most of the problems that had to be resolved, aside from the need for an on board computer.  That one was not anticipated.

Let put it another way

their agenda will not be achieved if an effective plan is initiated

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2021, 12:35:38 PM

Woke up to 4" of snow yesterday and 1" today now mostly melted but with the sun you needed your shades

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 12:36:26 PM

We have around 276 millions autos and light trucks on the US roads, responsible for about 28% of GHGs..  Folks buy around 16 million a year new, about 300,000 have been EVs per year.

Let's imagine, magically, that jumps to 8 million per year, now, somehow.  So, if flat, each year for nine years, 8 million more EVs on the road, a tidy 72 million in the fleet now, leaving 200 million NOT EVs, in 2030 (assuming no growth).  And we'd need more power from the grid.

We generate in the US about 5 million metric tons of CO2 per year.  How could you cut that in half, in 9 years?  Well, you could have a MASSIVE economic downturn of course that would put the COVID recession in the shade, and the Great Depression as well.

The above, which can't  happen, would barely dent the 5 GGT per year figure.  So, what else?  The power sector?  Do you think wind and solar are going to make a dent, in nine years?  The projection below would be fine, but is not nearly enough.  Math.

Whaley said, the current rate of renewable energy deployment will see wind and solar overtaking fossil fuels as the source of the majority of U.S. energy by the early 2030s. Wood Mackenzie expects the renewable sector will continue to enjoy incremental growth through roughly the same time period, with growth beginning to stabilize around 2033.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 03:43:55 PM

The Imaginary Climate Crisis: How can we Change the Message? A talk by Richard Lindzen - Clintel (https://clintel.org/the-imaginary-climate-crisis-how-can-we-change-the-message-a-talk-by-richard-lindzen/)

I don't agree with his analogy much, but it's worth a gander, or a goose.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2021, 05:24:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 22, 2021, 03:43:55 PM

The Imaginary Climate Crisis: How can we Change the Message? A talk by Richard Lindzen - Clintel (https://clintel.org/the-imaginary-climate-crisis-how-can-we-change-the-message-a-talk-by-richard-lindzen/)

I don't agree with his analogy much, but it's worth a gander, or a goose.

It's an excellent example of the worst tropes of the "skeptic" side of the argument. 

Maybe a few good points in there, but you have to dig for them under a pile of sh!t. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2021, 07:25:53 PM

set a record low for this date here in Sewer City

22 degrees, old record 24 degrees

tied the record low on the 20th

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2021, 11:07:46 AM

This reminds me of most NY resolutions to "lose weight", whatever.  They sound good, and could be good goals, but without enablement and commitment and a plan, they fall to dust.  I know it is political pandering, and I've read some want an even steeper cut, which is understandable if you look at the impact this would have even if it somehow worked on climate change.

It won't happen, and it's not enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2021, 04:17:27 PM

Decarbonizing California’s Grid Requires More than Wind and Solar (issues.org) (https://issues.org/california-decarbonizing-power-wind-solar-nuclear-gas/)

Still wishy washy, but contains some of the stark realities, and this by enviro folks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2021, 04:29:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2021, 11:07:46 AM

This reminds me of most NY resolutions to "lose weight"

I give those up for lent

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 23, 2021, 04:42:31 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTZgsuXfRYU

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2021, 11:12:12 AM

https://www.theonion.com/city-recycling-program-requires-residents-to-sort-sani-1846702783

City Recycling Program Requires Residents To Sort, Sanitize, Melt, Re-Form, Label, Fill Bottles Before Placing In Bin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2021, 11:28:06 AM

That's the Onion - you almost had me,they have sorters at these plants

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2021, 06:57:23 PM

They sorta have sorters, most of it goes to landfill.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 26, 2021, 01:17:00 PM

High of 77 today in Phoenix.  By Saturday, it'll be 102.  I think this is the last week of Spring for us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2021, 01:44:59 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 26, 2021, 01:17:00 PM

High of 77 today in Phoenix.  By Saturday, it'll be 102.  I think this is the last week of Spring for us.

Yeah, sounds like you're just behind our weather (which makes perfect sense). With some extra blast furnace built in, of course, as usual.

Just got through a cool weekend with highs in the mid-ish 60s. Rained this morning and a high of 62 on the forecast for today. Supposed to be 86 Thursday, and 88 Friday. Hopefully it "cools off" to 80 as forecasted on Saturday, because I've got a 10 AM tee time and that means it'll last likely until 2-3 PM and be in the hottest part of the day. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 01:49:33 PM

high of 83 here this afternoon

I'm going to try to escape the office in time to play 18 before dark!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 26, 2021, 05:59:55 PM

miss,NOONAN,miss

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2021, 08:20:19 AM

So, the goal is set to reduce CO2 emissions by half by 2030, nine years out.

Is there any practicable way to actually achieve that?

I can't find one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 27, 2021, 10:05:12 AM

We had back to back days of rain, with snow in the mountains.

I often wonder what a year of Ohio weather would do to this place. It would be like 1,000 of erosions all at once. Many areas would be washed away entirely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 10:22:05 AM

Bison vs Cow Greenhouse Gas “Emissions” – Mr. Dr. Science Teacher (wordpress.com) (https://mrdrscienceteacher.wordpress.com/2019/09/21/bison-vs-cow-greenhouse-gas-emissions/)

If bison produce less methane per pound than cattle, one approach seems fairly simple.  Bison burgers taste fine to me.

The steaks are a bit lean, but OK. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 10:30:00 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/yuNtLjQ.png)

I'm still trying to concoct some means of cutting this in half in nine years.  Transportation is a biggee, around 28%.  Let's focus on that.  So, the approach has to be more EVs on the road.  We can't do much soon for heavy trucks and planes.

Some 276 million vehicles were registered here in 2019. The figures include passenger cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses, and other vehicles. The number of light trucks sold in the U.S. stood at 12 million units in 2019.

Can we change the fleet from the current 1.4 million plugin EVs (including hybrids) to a number like 190 million in nine years?  The clear answer is NOPE, not a chance.  At the current rate, it would take 15 years to do that.

Automakers are now shifting to electric vehicles, which could make up one-quarter of new sales by 2035, analysts project. But at that point, only 13 percent of vehicles on the road would be electric. Why? Older cars can stick around for a decade or two.

Even in 2050, when electric vehicles are projected to make up 60 percent of new sales, the majority of vehicles on the road would still run on gasoline. Slow fleet turnover is a major challenge for climate policy.

Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road? - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/10/climate/electric-vehicle-fleet-turnover.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2021, 10:51:54 AM

Residential is small

probably why folks aren't being shamed for using natural gas for cooking and heating

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2021, 10:53:45 AM

Well, I guess we should just give up then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 10:56:18 AM

I guess we should be realistic and formulate a plan that has some decent chance of success.

I see no point in having some goal that is clearly unreachable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2021, 11:00:50 AM

Perhaps we should also limit the number of trees being cut?

This is next to my golf course.  The West side of the course.  Was a nice windbreak.  Not sure why the folks that own the industrial property there decided to remove the trees after they had been there for decades

(https://i.imgur.com/7jygOPP.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2021, 11:02:54 AM

a goal is merely that

Scott Frost has a few goals for the football program

one of them may be to win a national title - doesn't mean it is realistic or reasonable or will ever happen

it's just a goal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:06:10 AM

I guess I see no purpose in a goal that is not attainable, it leads to disappointment and frustration instead of real action.

If we were realistic, we'd be doing what is practicable and sensible and also examining what we might need to do to handle coastal cities with flooding issues.

Do we abandon them or figure out what the Dutch have done for decades?

If sea level is GOING to rise appreciably, in 80 years, we  might ponder how we can manage that eventuality.

When JFK set a goal to land on the moon, we had the outline of a plan and some idea what it would take.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on April 28, 2021, 11:13:40 AM

I have a hard time with the plan. Is it just to continue to release carbon into the air, forever? Feels like the main plan now, at least for America, is hope and prayers. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:25:56 AM

I could contrive a real plan with a bit of effort, at least the outline of one, however the "goals" would be pretty limited for obvious reasons.

I'm not in favor of pretending we're going to do something when we clearly aren't.

If we could employ nuclear power, realistically, a plan would start to be somewhat doable in 20 years or so.  We "could" nuclearize our power grid in 20 years with nuclear replacing coal at least, and much of the NG.

It would be pricey.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2021, 11:31:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:06:10 AM

When JFK set a goal to land on the moon, we had the outline of a plan and some idea what it would take.

Funny, all my life, in every single documentary or lesson about this, informed people emphasize how insane a goal it was.  I guess they're all wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2021, 11:32:33 AM

I'm actually all for setting absurdly-high goals.  Because falling short of them may end up 'higher' than meeting a lower, more-attainable goal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:33:15 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2021, 11:31:47 AM

Funny, all my life, in every single documentary or lesson about this, informed people emphasize how insane a goal it was.  I guess they're all wrong.

Well, like many things you thought you knew, this is wrong.

The Forgotten Plans to Reach the Moon—Before Apollo | Daily Planet | Air & Space Magazine (https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/forgotten-plans-reach-moon-apollo-180972695/)

The Idea That Got Us To The Moon, And The Man Who Pushed It : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2019/07/18/739934923/meet-john-houbolt-he-figured-out-how-to-go-to-the-moon-but-few-were-listening)

(https://i.imgur.com/D5StNp6.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:34:00 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2021, 11:32:33 AM

I'm actually all for setting absurdly-high goals.  Because falling short of them may end up 'higher' than meeting a lower, more-attainable goal.

Yeah, I had managers who believed this notion.  They were poor managers.

It was demoralizing for us workers and stifled any progress.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2021, 09:51:24 AM

BUCHANAN, N.Y. (AP) — Indian Point will permanently stop producing nuclear power Friday, capping a decades-long battle over a key source of electricity in the heart of New York City’s suburbs that opponents have called a threat to millions living in the densely packed region.

The retirement of the Indian Point Energy Center along the Hudson River could increase New York’s short-term reliance on natural gas plants, despite the state’s goal of reducing carbon emissions. But Gov. Andrew Cuomo and others who fought for its shutdown argue any benefits from the plant are eclipsed by the nightmare prospect of a major nuclear accident or a terror strike 25 miles (40 kilometers) north of the city.

“There are 20 million people living within 50 miles of Indian Point and there is no way to evacuate them in case of a radiological release. And the risk of that is quite real,” said Paul Gallay, president of the environmental group Riverkeeper.


The actual shutdown will be straightforward: a control room operator for Indian Point’s Unit 3 will push a red button to shut down the reactor Friday night. It will complete a contentious closing of the plant’s two reactors years in the making.

The Unit 2 reactor shut down exactly a year ago under a 2017 agreement among the Cuomo administration, Riverkeeper and the plant’s operator, Entergy Corp. Unit 3′s shutdown under the same agreement paves the way for a decommissioning that is projected to cost $2.3 billion and take at least 12 years. The tall twin domes visible from the river will eventually be demolished.

The two reactors, which went online two years apart in the mid-’70s, had generated about a quarter of the electricity used in New York City and the lower Hudson Valley.

They also generated controversy.

Environmentalists faulted the plant for killing fish by taking in massive amounts of river water for cooling. Critics said the plant was antiquated and pointed to a safety history that included faulty reactor bolts and radioactive tritium detected in groundwater onsite.

Fears that Indian Point could be a terror target intensified after one of the planes hijacked for the Sept. 11 attacks flew by the plant on its way down the river to the World Trade Center.

“In theory, the plant was built to withstand an airplane crash in the ’70s,” Cuomo told reporters recently. “Who knows what would happen now with Indian Point?”


Entergy spokesperson Jerry Nappi said Indian Point has run reliably and safely virtually without interruption since 1962, when the first long-since-retired reactor went online at the site of an old amusement park.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2021, 11:22:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:34:00 AM

Yeah, I had managers who believed this notion.  They were poor managers.

It was demoralizing for us workers and stifled any progress.

Exactly.  It's a terrible strategy for goal-setting.  Read pretty much ANY modern text on the topic of goal-setting and they explain in detail, why.

The benchmark for goal-setting is the SMART goal.

Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Relevant
Time-bound

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2021, 11:26:46 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 29, 2021, 11:22:39 AM

Exactly.  It's a terrible strategy for goal-setting.  Read pretty much ANY modern text on the topic of goal-setting and they explain in detail, why.

The benchmark for goal-setting is the SMART goal.

Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Relevant
Time-bound

Dude... Ouch! I come here to avoid work BS... 

But yeah, agree 100%. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2021, 11:31:33 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2021, 11:26:46 AM

Dude... Ouch! I come here to avoid work BS...

But yeah, agree 100%.

Yeah, can you tell I just completed my annual performance review and set my next year's goals?  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2021, 12:51:16 PM

I had at least two directors who came in and did this, intentionally and overtly and vocally.  They announced it all at the very first meeting, and nearly everyone left it demoralized and shaking their heads.  I gather it was a "trendy thing" at one point in the 1980s or so.  And yes the idea was to set a goal far out and take the progress one made.  However, the steps one takes to achieve a reasonable STRETCHING goal are simply not the same steps one takes to meet some near impossible goal.  The latter requires one to consider highly implausible approaches that also would be financially completely beyond the Pale.

One director was thrilled when we got about 20% of the way along and was unfazed when we showed him the inherent costs of what we were doing.  And we were tapped out at that point, there was no further progress to be had.  Physics you know.

But directors came and went every three years so we waited them out, wasting a lot of time, effort, and money along the way.

It doesn't take much acumen and analysis to show we are NOT going to cut CO2 emissions in half in nine years, it is impossible without nuclear.  No "stretching forecast" of any kind gets us anywhere near that goal.  The numbers don't lie, politicians however do.  And the gullible think it's fine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2021, 01:18:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:34:00 AM

Yeah, I had managers who believed this notion.  They were poor managers.

It was demoralizing for us workers and stifled any progress.

I didnt necessarily mean in that sort of dynamic.  It was more for self-goals.

I never want to be in charge of adults ever again.  Every.....single.....little....thing...is taken personally.  It's embarrassing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2021, 01:28:06 PM

Well, I could set a self goal to become a major league pitcher and even do everything I could to reach that level, but it is about equally likely.

So, my goal if to be a reasonably effective fantasy league pitcher without the arm pain I've been having.  The topic of course is not about some individual goal.

Humans get disappointed easily when they realize they have been sold a bill of goods.  And that is not conducive to making what progress was conceivable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 29, 2021, 01:31:06 PM

Didn'cha play in the minors, or some such? How far did you make it? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2021, 01:55:50 PM

Goals are fine. Wild stretch goals are fine. 

Goals without a plan are useless. Plans that one is unwilling to execute are worthless. 


Let's take the simple question of losing weight. Someone on January 1 says that their goal for 2021 was to lose 30 lbs. 

That's a great goal, and per OAM's point, losing 15 lbs or 20 lbs may not achieve the goal, a partial completion of the goal is at least a positive life change. 

Plans for this are easy... Eat less, exercise more, or both. It's not rocket science.

Yet people constantly fail at losing weight... Why? Because they're unwilling to execute the plan. 

---------------------

As for climate change, we have a few problems:

• We have difficulty creating concrete plans. What those plans COULD be are often somewhat simple, but every time that we then try to determine cost of those plans, who pays for it, and who is hurt by it, it becomes quickly clear that we're not willing to execute those plans.
• Most of the plans we come up with are incremental for what is perceived as a gigantic problem. If we drastically remake American society and reduce our carbon output by 50% over the next two decades, and the Earth still heats up to nigh-uninhabitable levels, then what's the point? It's like being 800 lbs and setting a goal to lose 400 lbs, and you only have a plan to lose 200. Even if you lose 200, you're still morbidly obese and you're going to die decades early... So your plan is useless.

So, if you want to set a goal, even a wild stretch goal, the first thing to do is to set a goal that will actually solve the problem that you intend to solve. Then you'd better construct a plan that will reach that goal. Finally, you need to be willing to execute that plan. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2021, 02:07:15 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 29, 2021, 01:31:06 PM

Didn'cha play in the minors, or some such? How far did you make it?

No, I did pretty well in HS as a sophomore, and the first game my junior year I started and something bad happened to my arm.  It never recovered, save the odd day here and there where it unaccountably felt fine.  I finally had surgery in August, to fix a 50 year old injury, called a "SLAP tear to the labrum".


A SLAP tear is a tear of tissue that is located on top of the shoulder. SLAP stands for “Superior Labrum Anterior Posterior.” The shoulder is a ball and socket joint, similar to a golf ball on a tee. A rim of tissue called the labrum surrounds the socket like a bumper on a pool table.

The new treatment is to separate the part of the bicep connected to the labrum and attach it to the bone.  My shoulder now is ~99%, I was starting to throw pretty well with no pain when the heart arrythmia started.  I was throwing a rubber ball against the tennis practice wall.


SLAP repair and the biceps tenodesis, are efficacious in pain alleviation and recovery of shoulder function. But, compared with SLAP repair, biceps tenodesis showed higher rate of patient satisfaction and return to preinjury sports participation.

Now, in reality, had this not happened in 11th grade, MAYBE I might have pitched for some small college, I think now that was about it.  A Division II school needs folks who can throw strikes and have a decent curve and maybe throw 80 mph.  I knew a guy when I played some in Cincy who had gone to AA ball in the minors.  We had another guy who made it to the Bigs for a couple years, he could throw really hard, but no control to speak of.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2021, 03:03:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2021, 01:28:06 PM

Well, I could set a self goal to become a major league pitcher and even do everything I could to reach that level, but it is about equally likely.

So, my goal if to be a reasonably effective fantasy league pitcher without the arm pain I've been having.  The topic of course is not about some individual goal.

Humans get disappointed easily when they realize they have been sold a bill of goods.  And that is not conducive to making what progress was conceivable.

Okay, so if my goal is to throw hard and dominate my friends, I'm going to take strides to build up arm strength, hit my spots, and even change speeds, right?  I'm going to try to do that and if I reach my goal, I'll just barely reach it and probably require maintaining that level if I want to keep making my friends look like fools in the batter's box.
And that's fine.
But if I did set a higher goal of making it to the majors (or, for me, an equally impossible goal of making it to a minor league tryout), I'd go above and beyond, in hopes of striking out professional hitters, and wind up a tougher pitcher, right?  Even inevitably falling short, I come out ahead.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2021, 03:16:45 PM

you might go above and beyond

or you may just throw in the towel early, cause you're keeping it real

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2021, 03:41:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2021, 12:51:16 PM

 The numbers don't lie, politicians however do.  And the gullible think it's fine.

It's not gullible,it's you'll be found guilty for shooting politicians

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2021, 03:43:20 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 28, 2021, 11:00:50 AM

Perhaps we should also limit the number of trees being cut?

Not only that but start planting a lot more,Though they are a huge pain in the ass during Football Season

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2021, 03:51:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2021, 02:07:15 PM

 “Superior Labrum Anterior Posterior.”

I ripped mine up while pulling the tail light push rod on an Amish Aero Wagon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2021, 03:54:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 10:22:05 AM

Bison vs Cow Greenhouse Gas “Emissions” – Mr. Dr. Science Teacher (wordpress.com) (https://mrdrscienceteacher.wordpress.com/2019/09/21/bison-vs-cow-greenhouse-gas-emissions/)

  Bison burgers taste fine to me.

Ya well try raising them to market size

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2021, 04:14:56 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2021, 03:03:09 PM

Okay, so if my goal is to throw hard and dominate my friends, I'm going to take strides to build up arm strength, hit my spots, and even change speeds, right?  I'm going to try to do that and if I reach my goal, I'll just barely reach it and probably require maintaining that level if I want to keep making my friends look like fools in the batter's box.
And that's fine.
But if I did set a higher goal of making it to the majors (or, for me, an equally impossible goal of making it to a minor league tryout), I'd go above and beyond, in hopes of striking out professional hitters, and wind up a tougher pitcher, right?  Even inevitably falling short, I come out ahead. 

If your goal is making it to the majors, and you have a plan and willingness to execute to that plan, you'll spend basically every waking minute not spent doing your day job to get there. You will quite literally eat, sleep, and sh!t baseball 24/7. You'll devote hours and hours in the gym, time [and money] with pitching coaches, personal trainers, nutrition planning, etc.

You won't have to worry about throwing hard and dominating your friends, because if you're putting that much time in, you won't see them for years anyway.

Now... What if you don't have the physical talent to throw in the majors, or even AAA ball? If that's the case [and just playing the odds I'm guessing it is], then why would you bother executing a plan to get you there? You're not willing to spend $5 on a lotto ticket, which has better odds than you suddenly finding athletic talent that doesn't exist. My advice to you would be to not even start on executing your plan, because the opportunity cost of what you could be doing with that time and money is much higher doing almost anything else. 

Of course, let's say your goal is to make it to the majors, and your plan only entails 50% more work than what it'll take to dominate your friends rather than hyper-focused dedication. Well, that's a crappy plan that doesn't have the dedication and effort needed to get to the majors. If that's your plan, then I'd say you don't really believe in, or want, to reach your goal, because your plan won't do it even if you execute. Your goal is a fantasy at that point.

I'm 42. You can qualify for the PGA senior tour at 50. That's 8 years. I think in the back of my head "what if I started now and really tried to make it?" But I'm not going to, because the amount of work needed to get there is more than I'm willing to put in on golf. So if I said my goal is to make the senior tour in 8 years, and you looked at how hard I'm working towards it, you'd realize that the goal is not attainable with that level of work. So it's just a fantasy, not a goal. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2021, 04:25:28 PM

A goal is irrelevant at best without an actionable plan, and often ends in frustrating failure.

It can be worse than nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2021, 04:28:57 PM

To put it more realistic terms... I just got back into golf last summer. I realized how much I missed the game. And I've realized, like most people, that I kinda suck at it. 

I have the physical talent to be a much better golfer than I am. I'm also reaching a point in my life where I have more time and opportunity to improve my golf game. 

So it's time to set a goal. And that's easy... My goal is to be a scratch (or even plus-handicap) golfer. 

This is like the "lose 30 lbs if you're 30 lbs overweight" goal. That's a lofty goal, but it is one that I should be physically and mentally capable of attaining. It's not like playing professionally; it's not a lotto ticket. 

So... Gotta move to plan. Again, that's easy. Practice at the range and lessons to improve my swing mechanics. Practice short game and putting, which I can do at the same facility. I've bought a putting mat for home practice just to work on mechanics and stroke. Joining an online golf forum in order to learn from others. And of course, playing on-course as much as I can to both apply and refine what I'm doing in off-course practice. 

Finally, we get to the question of "willing to execute the plan sufficiently to meet my goal", and that's where I falter. 

The truth is, I think it'll take MORE time, MORE practice, MORE dedication than I'm willing to put in to get to scratch. I have a job, and a wife, and kids. I probably can't devote enough time to practice or play to get to scratch. 

But I look at this like a weight loss goal... If I keep putting in the work that I'm capable and willing to put in, I can probably drop my handicap significantly from where it is right now. If over the span of 2 years I can cut it in half or by two thirds, I'll go from being a typical weekend duffer to a pretty respectable amateur golfer. Even if my goal is scratch, I'll be improving my enjoyment of the game whether I get to scratch or not. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2021, 04:32:28 PM

Approximately 1.85 percent of male golfers are scratch or better,

the goal is not reasonable or obtainable 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2021, 04:55:33 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 29, 2021, 04:32:28 PM

Approximately 1.85 percent of male golfers are scratch or better,

the goal is not reasonable or obtainable

That's 1 in 54. And golf is not a game that requires next-level athleticism or insane hand-eye coordination. Just dedication and work.

If we were talking 1 in 540, I'd say it's not reasonable or attainable as a goal. But not 1 in 54.

But as mentioned, I don't know that I have the time to put in that work, so I'm not saying I'll get there. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on April 29, 2021, 07:58:15 PM

I mean, sure, and you could also plan to hit the links every other Saturday and drink a case of beer and hope you get better too. These are both plans. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2021, 11:15:51 PM

A goal of being a scratch golfer iis all fine and dandy, but the current administration's emissions goal is more like-- win as many majors as Tiger, Jack, and Ben combined.  Oh and you don't get to start until you're 80 years old.  Now... GO!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on April 30, 2021, 07:00:50 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 29, 2021, 11:15:51 PM

A goal of being a scratch golfer iis all fine and dandy, but the current administration's emissions goal is more like-- win as many majors as Tiger, Jack, and Ben combined.  Oh and you don't get to start until you're 80 years old.  Now... GO!

But isn't the alternative plan just not playing golf at all?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 30, 2021, 07:53:12 AM

I believe that someone said this earlier in the thread, but I am going to repeat it. What is the primary objective that the goal of cutting carbon emissions is trying to achieve? 

From what I have seen and read, IF the US were to completely cut carbon emissions, it would only have the effect of dropping global mean temps by 1/10th of 1 degree. Is this really something that we want to sacrifice time and treasure to do? This all assumes that climate change is due to man caused actions. Never mind the fact that the earths climate is in a constant state of change and anything we do is like pissing in the wind compared to the effects that the sun has on the climate. 

The fact of the matter is, that unless we take the United States back to the stone age, cutting carbon emissions by 50% in the time frame proposed is not feasible or practical. That does not mean that we should not look to find ways to produce energy cleaner than we do now and eliminate pollution was much as reasonably possible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on April 30, 2021, 08:33:45 AM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 30, 2021, 07:53:12 AM

I believe that someone said this earlier in the thread, but I am going to repeat it. What is the primary objective that the goal of cutting carbon emissions is trying to achieve?

From what I have seen and read, IF the US were to completely cut carbon emissions, it would only have the effect of dropping global mean temps by 1/10th of 1 degree. Is this really something that we want to sacrifice time and treasure to do? This all assumes that climate change is due to man caused actions. Never mind the fact that the earths climate is in a constant state of change and anything we do is like pissing in the wind compared to the effects that the sun has on the climate.

The fact of the matter is, that unless we take the United States back to the stone age, cutting carbon emissions by 50% in the time frame proposed is not feasible or practical. That does not mean that we should not look to find ways to produce energy cleaner than we do now and eliminate pollution was much as reasonably possible.

The problem with this is if there isn't any actual effort to limit emissions, the CO2 will continue to rise. It's above 400 ppm now, and the rise is growing. It's feasible that by 2100 it is in the four digits. What this means for the planet isn't exactly known. Seems bad. Changing the composition of the atmosphere isn't ideal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 08:54:43 AM

By 2100 the atmospheric CO2 concentration (the gas responsible for most temperature change) will be between 540 and 970 ppm depending on the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenario (see Figure 1)(For a description of the scenarios, see section at the end of this article called Socio-Economic Scenarios).
 (https://www.acer-acre.ca/resources/climate-change-in-context/introduction-2/global/scientific-projections/projections-for-carbon-dioxide#:~:text=By 2100 the atmospheric CO2,called Socio-Economic Scenarios).)
Projections for Carbon Dioxide – ACER

This probably would be "bad", in my view, but dinking and dunking by the US is not going to be sufficient.  It's a matter of being honest with the data and setting stretch goals that are realistic, if challenging, AND laying out some estimate of the cost:benefit.

If I framed this as "We need to spend $4 trillion to achieve the goal and it will reduce global T by 0.1°F in 30 years", I think most of us would think "Is that worthwhile?"

That doesn't mean we do NOTHING.  It means we should reevaluate our options.  And be realistic.
(https://www.acer-acre.ca/resources/climate-change-in-context/introduction-2/global/scientific-projections/projections-for-carbon-dioxide#:~:text=By 2100 the atmospheric CO2,called Socio-Economic Scenarios).)
(https://www.acer-acre.ca/resources/climate-change-in-context/introduction-2/global/scientific-projections/projections-for-carbon-dioxide#:~:text=By 2100 the atmospheric CO2,called Socio-Economic Scenarios).)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 09:06:20 AM

Let's imagine that Congress passed some impressive climate change bill with lots of spending, a big push to subsidize EVs, shutter coal plants, plant trees, insulate, etc.  OK, fine.  And then we get to 2025 and the goals are not being met, and then 2028, and we're not remotely close to the goal, and then 2030, and perhaps we managed a 20% cut (which might be possible, maybe).

People will understandably wonder if it was all worth it, for an unmeasurable change in climate.

Or, we could be REALISTIC and "listen to the science" and explain we can't do this without nuclear power, it simply is not possible.  It's not a stretch goal, it's just not possible, at all.  Maybe folks then would weight the pros and cons of that option and realize we probably need that route IF we mean to do something serious.  

We'd start by choosing one reactor type and duplicate them, they'd all be the same plan and construction and operation, like France did.  (That won't be easy.)  We  might invest in SMRs and build them seriously in specific locations.  We'd start reprocessing nuclear waste, as France does.  That hugely reduces its mass.

Then, perhaps by 2032 or so, we'd have nukes coming on line replacing coal.  Meanwhile, we'd do what made sense with wind and solar and hydro and thermal.  NG would start to be used primarily for spike needs.  And by 2035 or so, we MIGHT be able to reduce CO2 production from the electricity side by 80-90%.  Maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2021, 09:24:31 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on April 30, 2021, 07:00:50 AM

But isn't the alternative plan just not playing golf at all?

No...?

The alternative plan-- one that could actually be successful-- has not been vocalized as of yet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 09:28:22 AM

Whatever personal goals we might set for ourselves is not really material to a national goal such as this one.

Had JFK said he wanted to do it by 1962, people would have laughed, rightly so.  1970 was a stretch goal, but achievable obviously and we knew it if money poured in.

We had sketched several plans, one of which was adopted and followed rather closely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2021, 09:58:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 08:54:43 AM

It's a matter of being honest with the data and setting stretch goals that are realistic, if challenging, AND laying out some estimate of the cost:benefit.

This. This is all I'm asking for.

Why is it so hard to get anything like this out of Washington?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2021, 10:06:14 AM

because the cost/benefit is horrible

that would leave them with no money to redistribute 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 11:27:19 AM

Maybe I'm just too "picky", I read crap like this stuff and just sigh and give up.

Biden's moonshot | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/551140-bidens-moonshot)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 30, 2021, 11:41:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 11:27:19 AM

Maybe I'm just too "picky", I read crap like this stuff and just sigh and give up.

Biden's moonshot | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/551140-bidens-moonshot)

no one should be surprised by this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 11:46:52 AM

The World Is Not Going To Halve Carbon Emissions By 2030, So Now What? (forbes.com) (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/10/27/the-world-is-not-going-to-reduce-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-50-by-2030-now-what/?sh=19437b493794)


 As I have argued in a previous column (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/), the magnitude of the net-zero by 2050 challenge is equivalent to the deployment of a new nuclear plant every day for the next 30 years, while retiring an equivalent amount of fossil fuel energy every day. Emissions reductions for 2030 consistent with the IPCC view of the 1.5°C temperature target require a much great rate of deployment than one nuclear power plant worth of carbon-free energy deployment every day, because about half of the required emissions reductions are squeezed into the next 10 years.

The bottom line of this analysis should be undeniable: There is simply no evidence that the world is, or is on the brink of, making “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” that would be required for the deep decarbonization associated with a 1.5°C temperature target. Anyone advocating a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 is engaging in a form of climate theater, full of drama but not much suspense. But don’t just take it from me, do the math yourself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 11:51:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/bim9UN9.png)

Outlook for future emissions - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2021, 11:56:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 11:27:19 AM

Maybe I'm just too "picky", I read crap like this stuff and just sigh and give up.

Biden's moonshot | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/551140-bidens-moonshot)

Was there a plan in there and I missed it?

(BTW that's a rhetorical question.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2021, 12:09:25 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2021, 11:56:25 AM

Was there a plan in there and I missed it?

(BTW that's a rhetorical question.)

I keep searching for some kind of outline plan and cannot find one, which I think is a clear sign there isn't one.

I do find pieces claiming to be a plan, but they are completely vague and without metrics.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on April 30, 2021, 06:08:21 PM

I just don't see any evidence at all that the issue moving forward is a lack of achievable targets. The American issue is we have two major parties and one of them is doesn't see it as a problem at all. The other party still has to win elections in a country where cheap gas and cheap meat are really important (among many other things). Any sort of plan has to deal with this reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 30, 2021, 06:54:29 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on April 30, 2021, 06:08:21 PM

I just don't see any evidence at all that the issue moving forward is a lack of achievable targets. The American issue is we have two major parties and one of them is doesn't see it as a problem at all. The other party still has to win elections in a country where cheap gas and cheap meat are really important (among many other things). Any sort of plan has to deal with this reality.

There will never be a plan other then redistribution of wealth

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2021, 08:55:25 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on April 30, 2021, 06:08:21 PM

I just don't see any evidence at all that the issue moving forward is a lack of achievable targets. The American issue is we have two major parties and one of them is doesn't see it as a problem at all. The other party still has to win elections in a country where cheap gas and cheap meat are really important (among many other things). Any sort of plan has to deal with this reality.

Awesome, sounds great-- so let's see those achievable targets.  Let's see the PLAN.

I'll be waiting patiently over here by the beer taps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 09:36:15 AM

If Republicans were entirely aligned with the "plan", it would not alter the fact there is not "plan" beyond throwing money at it.  The impossibility of this goal is independent of whether we strive for it or not, even if we threw huge sums of money at it, UNLESS we deployed nuclear power on a large scale, and even that would take closer to 15 years.

And you'd still have the transportation sector which can't change that fast unless you pay everyone to trash their ICE vehicles.  And then we don't have enough batteries.

We might do "it" in 15 years with massive nuclear (and massive money).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2021, 10:06:19 AM

I have a plan. Not sure how effective it will be. However, it will IMHO reduce emissions based on simple economics.

Carbon tax. Design it to be revenue neutral, offsetting against some reduction in taxes elsewhere (I prefer the payroll tax as they would both be regressive taxes). Set the rate high enough to be noticeable, but not so punitive that it will ruin the economy. 

Let the market figure out how to reduce carbon usage to save money.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 10:25:11 AM

That is an approach, but a plan would detail how much the carbon tax needs to be and how rapidly that will impact fossil fuel usage.

I'm not opposed to some carbon tax, but it would have to be "painful" in order to be even moderately effective.

The Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions | NBER (https://www.nber.org/digest/may09/effect-gasoline-tax-carbon-emissions)

Their preferred estimates imply that a 10 cent tax increase would decrease U.S. carbon emissions from the transportation sector by about 1.5 percent and decrease total U.S. carbon emissions by about 0.5 percent. To put this estimate in context, total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions increased by 1.1 percent annually between 1990 and 2007, so a 10 cent gasoline tax increase would approximately offset half a year of growth in total U.S. emissions.

Under Biden's Plan, Energy Prices Go Up, And That's The Point - American Energy Alliance (https://www.americanenergyalliance.org/2020/10/under-bidens-plan-energy-prices-go-up-and-thats-the-point/)

A $20 per metric ton carbon tax equates to a 16.6 cent per gallon surcharge on gasoline. In 2022, the $50 per ton carbon tax would increase Canadian gasoline prices by about 42 cents per gallon or about 8 percent. The price of coal in 2022 would more than double with a carbon tax surcharge of about $100 per metric ton. Natural gas prices would increase by about 10 cents per cubic meter in 2022 compared to current prices of around 13 cents per cubic meter (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/26/canada-passed-a-carbon-tax-that-will-give-most-canadians-more-money)—about a 75 percent increase.
Canada expects the carbon tax to increase the demand for carbon-free electricity. In 2019, however, Canada generated 58 percent (https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) of its electricity from hydroelectric power, 15 percent from nuclear, and 7 percent from renewable energy. Only 18 percent of its electricity came from fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas. The majority of Canada’s carbon dioxide emissions are not from the generating sector, but from the industrial sector, which is subjected to an Output-Based Allocations system (https://ecofiscal.ca/2017/05/24/explaining-output-based-allocations-obas/) (similar to cap and trade).
Those carbon taxes, which at $50 per metric ton seem rather large, are insufficient for the country to meet its emission-reduction targets under the Paris climate accord. Canada’s parliamentary budget officer says the country’s carbon tax would have to increase over the coming years to meet emission-reduction targets. Canada’s budget officer, Yves Giroux, estimates the tax will have to increase to $117 per metric ton by 2030 if it is applied to all industries (https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/carbon-tax-must-rise-if-canada-is-to-meet-paris-emission-targets-pbo-says). And, if the government caps the tax at $50 per metric ton for large industrial emitters, households and other sectors of the economy would have to cover the difference, requiring a tax of $289 per metric ton in 2030.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 10:59:42 AM

A carbon tax would not be a one-time deal. It will continue and increase until the United States will no longer consume the fossil fuels currently supplying 80 percent of our energy. Yet that enormous change in the U.S. energy sector will result in only a miniscule change in temperature. According to Bjorn Lomborg (https://www.lomborg.com/press-release-research-reveals-negligible-impact-of-paris-climate-promises), U.S. climate policies, in the most optimistic circumstances, fully achieved and adhered to throughout the century, will reduce global temperatures by just 0.031°C (0.057°F) by 2100. This is unnoticeable. Further, if all countries comply with their Paris accord commitments, he estimates the total temperature reduction to be 0.048°C (0.086°F) by 2100. It will be a lot of pain for very little gain, as the energy necessary for modern life becomes more and more expensive for those who have it and less available to those in the world who are striving to use energy to lift themselves from poverty.

Lomborg is not an unbiased source, of course, so you might think the actual reduction would be 3-4-5x what he calculates.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2021, 11:57:13 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2021, 10:06:19 AM

I have a plan. Not sure how effective it will be. However, it will IMHO reduce emissions based on simple economics.

Carbon tax. Design it to be revenue neutral, offsetting against some reduction in taxes elsewhere (I prefer the payroll tax as they would both be regressive taxes). Set the rate high enough to be noticeable, but not so punitive that it will ruin the economy.

Let the market figure out how to reduce carbon usage to save money. 

youre making an assumption that an improvement in the US would solve the problem

why should the US pay tax when the rest of the world does not

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 01, 2021, 12:11:43 PM

The carbon tax is probably simplest solution to the underlying problem, which is that the cost to the polluter are effectively zero and the costs of the pollution can be spread among everybody and pushed into the future where someone else pays it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2021, 12:33:17 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on May 01, 2021, 12:11:43 PM

The carbon tax is probably simplest solution to the underlying problem, which is that the cost to the polluter are effectively zero and the costs of the pollution can be spread among everybody and pushed into the future where someone else pays it.

again the US accounts for only 15% of the world's carbon emissions so how is taxing the US population going to fix the problem

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 01, 2021, 12:38:36 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 01, 2021, 12:33:17 PM

again the US accounts for only 15% of the world's carbon emissions so how is taxing the US population going to fix the problem

That would be why a multinational plan would be preferable. Though the tax could in theory be assessed on any goods and services imported from China or anywhere else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2021, 01:31:21 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on May 01, 2021, 12:38:36 PM

That would be why a multinational plan would be preferable. Though the tax could in theory be assessed on any goods and services imported from China or anywhere else.

good luck with that

until the world pays I really dont see it as something the US would accept

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 02:44:03 PM

A carbon tax is a nice concept, but as noted, it's not nearly enough to address the real issue in any meaningful way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 02:46:52 PM

You can tax things, but that doesn't magically solve the problem, at all, you just make energy that we have more expensive.  It should increase the rate at which other energy sources can compete of course, but it cannot solve the problem, the solution doesn't exist outside nuclear.  The math is inexorable, we're kidding ourselves to think otherwise.  This MIGHT have been useful in say 2000.

The idea of a carbon tax used to reduce FICA taxes is nice though the reduction would be small, and the reduction in CO2 would be small.  You can't magically WISH wind and solar and EVs into existence over night.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 01, 2021, 05:04:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 02:44:03 PM

A carbon tax is a nice concept, but as noted, it's not nearly enough to address the real issue in any meaningful way.

Eh, I have seen no evidence to suggest that. The issue is assessing costs to carbon in a way that makes its actual cost closer to reality, which gives incentive to reduce its use. Right now, the only motive to reduce its use is good feelings, which isn't particularly effective.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 05:35:29 PM

I have posted clear evidence it isn't enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 01, 2021, 05:48:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 05:35:29 PM

I have posted clear evidence it isn't enough.

No you haven't. The problem with predictions of the future is they are typically wrong, and a random claim is not particularly convincing. In any event, focusing on temperature seems like the wrong focus. We can measure the carbon - the first step would be to try and slow the emission growth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2021, 08:17:48 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on May 01, 2021, 05:48:29 PM

No you haven't. The problem with predictions of the future is they are typically wrong, and a random claim is not particularly convincing. In any event, focusing on temperature seems like the wrong focus. We can measure the carbon - the first step would be to try and slow the emission growth.

The first step is to convince the other 85% of the world to slow emission growth

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 09:03:40 PM

Slowing emission growth is possible, and irrelevant.  The whole premise is based on predictions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2021, 09:13:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 09:03:40 PM

Slowing emission growth is possible, and irrelevant.  The whole premise is based on predictions.

if everything is an elephant why bother

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 02, 2021, 06:48:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 09:03:40 PM

Slowing emission growth is possible, and irrelevant.  The whole premise is based on predictions.

Well, definitely not irrelevant. It's probably the lynchpin to the entire thing. Measurements based on temperature are uncertain, because temperatures are affected by many things. The growth is carbon dioxide is easy to measure and relatively easy to figure out what is causing it. So efforts towards progress should be measured by that. It's sort of like drinking. Measuring your blood alcohol level is easy, while measuring your state of drunkenness a good deal harder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 09:19:35 AM

This is why I keep coming back to cost:benefit.  I'm not interested in some hyperexpensive path that does a miniscule amount in real life just to pretend we're doing something.

Value for money, we all use that in our lives to make personal decisions.  How much money, and how much value.  Until I see some rough approximation of that, I am personally completed against anything where we just throw money away for no reason.

It's political pandering, and expensive.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 02, 2021, 10:15:01 AM

Well, I think most of the population would have that idea - don't deal with it until there is some sort of magic pill that will fix the situation. Like fixing this was like going to Home Depot to pick out supplies to fix a hole in the drywall. I don't think that approach will get us anywhere - results based processes are typically much less effective than process based ones.

In any event, the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere is accelerating. Like I said earlier, 1000 ppm is feasible by the turn of the century. From what I read, that's the level that also starts to turn towards poor effects on our respiration. Seems like something we ought to try and avoid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 10:30:28 AM

Cost:benefit.  Give me an idea what "it" will cost, and what the benefit will be.  If your "1,000 PPM" turns into "985 PPM" after spending trillions, I am not very interested.

And I'm OBVIOUSLY not saying "don't deal with it until there is a magic pill", that is fatuous misrepresentation of my rather clear point, which is unarguably correct.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 10:35:02 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on May 02, 2021, 10:15:01 AM

Well, I think most of the population would have that idea - don't deal with it until there is some sort of magic pill that will fix the situation. Like fixing this was like going to Home Depot to pick out supplies to fix a hole in the drywall. I don't think that approach will get us anywhere - results based processes are typically much less effective than process based ones.

In any event, the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere is accelerating. Like I said earlier, 1000 ppm is feasible by the turn of the century. From what I read, that's the level that also starts to turn towards poor effects on our respiration. Seems like something we ought to try and avoid.

This makes no sense

Give one example of a solution to a problem that was achieved through a processed based approach and not a results based approach

science is the vary definition of results based approaches

yes CO2 is rising and you say 1000 ppm is feasible in 80 years but no mention of how to convince the other 85% of the world to take action

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 10:48:05 AM

Projections for Carbon Dioxide – ACER (acer-acre.ca) (https://www.acer-acre.ca/resources/climate-change-in-context/introduction-2/global/scientific-projections/projections-for-carbon-dioxide#:~:text=By 2100 the atmospheric CO2,called Socio-Economic Scenarios).)

By 2100 the atmospheric CO2 concentration (the gas responsible for most temperature change) will be between 540 and 970 ppm depending on the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenario (see Figure 1)(For a description of the scenarios, see section at the end of this article called Socio-Economic Scenarios). The concentration was about 280 ppm in the pre-industrial era and about 368 ppm in the year 2000.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (1750),

• atmospheric CO2 increase: 31%.
• methane (CH4) increase: 150%
• nitrogen oxide increase: 17%.

This is a nice problem synopsis, but my point remains.  Just saying this would be bad and we HAVE to do something is, to me, just burfle.  What IS the something?  How much would it cost?  What would be the benefit?

I realize these are tough and uncomfortable questions, but they need to be addressed by someone at some point IF there is to be general support for any effort.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 01:28:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2021, 10:25:11 AM

That is an approach, but a plan would detail how much the carbon tax needs to be and how rapidly that will impact fossil fuel usage.

I'm not opposed to some carbon tax, but it would have to be "painful" in order to be even moderately effective.

The Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions | NBER (https://www.nber.org/digest/may09/effect-gasoline-tax-carbon-emissions)

Their preferred estimates imply that a 10 cent tax increase would decrease U.S. carbon emissions from the transportation sector by about 1.5 percent and decrease total U.S. carbon emissions by about 0.5 percent. To put this estimate in context, total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions increased by 1.1 percent annually between 1990 and 2007, so a 10 cent gasoline tax increase would approximately offset half a year of growth in total U.S. emissions.

Under Biden's Plan, Energy Prices Go Up, And That's The Point - American Energy Alliance (https://www.americanenergyalliance.org/2020/10/under-bidens-plan-energy-prices-go-up-and-thats-the-point/)

A $20 per metric ton carbon tax equates to a 16.6 cent per gallon surcharge on gasoline. In 2022, the $50 per ton carbon tax would increase Canadian gasoline prices by about 42 cents per gallon or about 8 percent. The price of coal in 2022 would more than double with a carbon tax surcharge of about $100 per metric ton. Natural gas prices would increase by about 10 cents per cubic meter in 2022 compared to current prices of around 13 cents per cubic meter (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/26/canada-passed-a-carbon-tax-that-will-give-most-canadians-more-money)—about a 75 percent increase.
Canada expects the carbon tax to increase the demand for carbon-free electricity. In 2019, however, Canada generated 58 percent (https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) of its electricity from hydroelectric power, 15 percent from nuclear, and 7 percent from renewable energy. Only 18 percent of its electricity came from fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas. The majority of Canada’s carbon dioxide emissions are not from the generating sector, but from the industrial sector, which is subjected to an Output-Based Allocations system (https://ecofiscal.ca/2017/05/24/explaining-output-based-allocations-obas/) (similar to cap and trade).
Those carbon taxes, which at $50 per metric ton seem rather large, are insufficient for the country to meet its emission-reduction targets under the Paris climate accord. Canada’s parliamentary budget officer says the country’s carbon tax would have to increase over the coming years to meet emission-reduction targets. Canada’s budget officer, Yves Giroux, estimates the tax will have to increase to $117 per metric ton by 2030 if it is applied to all industries (https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/carbon-tax-must-rise-if-canada-is-to-meet-paris-emission-targets-pbo-says). And, if the government caps the tax at $50 per metric ton for large industrial emitters, households and other sectors of the economy would have to cover the difference, requiring a tax of $289 per metric ton in 2030.

I didn't say it will solve the problem nor that it would, on its own, get us in line with the Paris accord. 

However, let's look at the basics. We need to fund our government, somehow. Taxation makes something more expensive. Making something more expensive, by basic laws of supply and demand, either cause people to economize use of that thing or seek alternatives. So the smart thing to do is to tax things that you don't want, so that there is less of them, and don't tax things that you want.

So regardless of the actual projected reduction in CO2, replacing taxes on something you want (jobs, i.e. income, for example) with taxes on something you don't want (CO2), in a revenue neutral way, will at least do SOMETHING. Set the price high enough to affect behavior but not high enough to wreck our economy. And see what happens.

It might not be the whole enchilada. But... It's easy. And if done in a revenue-neutral way such that you offset another regressive tax with this regressive tax, generally should be less disruptive and engender less political backlash or opposition. 

A carbon tax might just be one piece of the puzzle, but how do you put together a puzzle? You look for the corners and edge pieces first, and then gradually work your way through the rest of it. A carbon tax is a corner or edge piece. 

Start there and then figure out the rest of the plan...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 01:29:57 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 01, 2021, 11:57:13 AM

youre making an assumption that an improvement in the US would solve the problem

why should the US pay tax when the rest of the world does not

The US already pays taxes. Several trillion per year, just counting the Feds. 

I'm saying shift taxes from other revenues sources to carbon taxes. 

Money still comes out of Americans' pockets and ends up in the US Treasury, just like today, but we do it in such a way as to have an outcome that we prefer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 01:37:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 01:29:57 PM

The US already pays taxes. Several trillion per year, just counting the Feds.

I'm saying shift taxes from other revenues sources to carbon taxes.

Money still comes out of Americans' pockets and ends up in the US Treasury, just like today, but we do it in such a way as to have an outcome that we prefer.

there would be no shift of taxes are you kidding

it would be an additional tax

again this is just a redistribution of wealth with no real improvement to our environment due to the US being just about the only country that would participate

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 02:02:05 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 01:37:14 PM

there would be no shift of taxes are you kidding

it would be an additional tax

again this is just a redistribution of wealth with no real improvement to our environment due to the US being just about the only country that would participate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax

Quote

Research shows that carbon taxes effectively reduce emissions.^{[9] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-:3-9)} Many economists argue that carbon taxes are the most efficient (lowest cost) way to curb climate change (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change).^{[10] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-gupta_taxes_and_charges-10)[11] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-:6-11)[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-:7-12)[13] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-:4-13)[14] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-:5-14)} Seventy-seven countries and over 100 cities have committed to achieving net zero (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality) emissions by 2050.^{[15] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-15)[9] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-:3-9)} As of 2019, carbon taxes have been implemented or scheduled for implementation in 25 countries,^{[16] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-16)} while 46 countries put some form of price on carbon, either through carbon taxes or emissions trading (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading) schemes.^{[17] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-17)} To avoid the negative impacts of these regressive taxes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regressive_tax), carbon tax revenues can be directly spent on low-income groups, or distributed among some or all consumers via tax credits (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_credits).^{[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#cite_note-18)}

It's more that the US is one of the only developed countries NOT doing much of anything... 

I understand the concern about shifting of taxes... I do. 

So obviously it would have to come as a package deal to reduce taxes elsewhere. Otherwise it's dead in the Senate. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 02:20:26 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 02:02:05 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax


It's more that the US is one of the only developed countries NOT doing much of anything...

I understand the concern about shifting of taxes... I do.

So obviously it would have to come as a package deal to reduce taxes elsewhere. Otherwise it's dead in the Senate.

thats not true in fact we have reduced our carbon emissions way more then many other countries

plus China shows no sign of any cooperation

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 03:19:13 PM

I think a carbon tax is a good idea, as I said, so long as we realize its limitations.  I think it should be increased on a regular schedule, perhaps we start at $10 per ton and increase that every other year by $10 for a decade.  Then the monies would go into a trust fund of some sort designated perhaps for infrastructure improvements, or perhaps to reduce the FICA tax, or perhaps to simply get the SSTF funded, maybe all three.

If nuclear power were a realistic option, we could I think in 15 years replace every coal plant with nuclear, they produce the same sort of electricity.  Natural gas would be used for peaker plants, maybe batteries come on faster than expected.  Maybe we should subsidize EVs, I'd put a limit of ~$40 K per vehicle on any  tax credit, meaning the expensive ones wouldn't get a dime.  Whoever can build a decent $35 K EV would get maybe $5 K.

We could do this, it wouldn't be terribly painful, it would have SOME impact on CO2 levels, just a very small one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 03:46:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 03:19:13 PM

I think a carbon tax is a good idea, as I said, so long as we realize its limitations.  I think it should be increased on a regular schedule, perhaps we start at $10 per ton and increase that every other year by $10 for a decade.  Then the monies would go into a trust fund of some sort designated perhaps for infrastructure improvements, or perhaps to reduce the FICA tax, or perhaps to simply get the SSTF funded, maybe all three.

If nuclear power were a realistic option, we could I think in 15 years replace every coal plant with nuclear, they produce the same sort of electricity.  Natural gas would be used for peaker plants, maybe batteries come on faster than expected.  Maybe we should subsidize EVs, I'd put a limit of ~$40 K per vehicle on any  tax credit, meaning the expensive ones wouldn't get a dime.  Whoever can build a decent $35 K EV would get maybe $5 K.

We could do this, it wouldn't be terribly painful, it would have SOME impact on CO2 levels, just a very small one.

and what is the goal of such a tax

it would achieve nothing 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 03:52:50 PM

The goal is two fold, in my mind:

1.  To facilitate a shift to a lower carbon intensity energy system, over time, and
2.  To help fund needed priorities.

Tax what you don't want and fund what you do.  We just should be realistic about how much of Item One this could achieve.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 04:42:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 03:52:50 PM

The goal is two fold, in my mind:

1.  To facilitate a shift to a lower carbon intensity energy system, over time, and
2.  To help fund needed priorities.

Tax what you don't want and fund what you do.  We just should be realistic about how much of Item One this could achieve.

1.  No way this make any difference at all if the US is the only ones doing it

2. I got a great idea on how to fund needed priorities

      STOP SPENDING ON PORK

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 06:44:23 PM

They always spend on pork.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 02, 2021, 07:29:40 PM

Quote

This is a nice problem synopsis, but my point remains.  Just saying this would be bad and we HAVE to do something is, to me, just burfle.  What IS the something?  How much would it cost?  What would be the benefit?

I realize these are tough and uncomfortable questions, but they need to be addressed by someone at some point IF there is to be general support for any effort.

It's not that they are uncomfortable, just sort of too simplistic. What is "cost" in this circumstance? Dollars? How many dollars do we spend on carbon generating activities. If we limit those, are we spending money? If we cap or tax carbon emissions and it leads to say, new developments in fusion reactors, which drastically cut the need for fossil fuels - did we spend money, save money, lose money? There is no price tag on a policy such as this - it is more like dealing with COVID where we simply make tradeoffs and go for the least bad.


Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing. It is not at any sort of homeostasis and if this pattern continues it would seem to have very bad consequences. It's not burfle to admit this reality, nor is it burfle to suggest that focusing on things we can control is probably more effective and than focusing on results we can't control. 

But, as I've previously said, the state of US politics is such that no idea about it will go anywhere. Even relatively minor policy changes are a nonstarter, and I don't think it has anything to do with plans being too optimistic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 02, 2021, 07:35:09 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 10:35:02 AM

This makes no sense

Give one example of a solution to a problem that was achieved through a processed based approach and not a results based approach

science is the vary definition of results based approaches

yes CO2 is rising and you say 1000 ppm is feasible in 80 years but no mention of how to convince the other 85% of the world to take action

Science is (supposed to be) processed based. In that, you try to control every variable you can and then change one and then see what happens. It is not the opposite, where you hope for a predetermined result and then make experiments which show that result. 

As far as other countries, why would any other country listen to us when we aren't united in any way on the issue? A Republican president or legislature getting elected would end any sort of policy on the matter, and it is typically unwise to make some sort of agreement with a party that is likely to be broken (as any agreement with us would be).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 08:06:20 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on May 02, 2021, 07:35:09 PM

Science is (supposed to be) processed based. In that, you try to control every variable you can and then change one and then see what happens. It is not the opposite, where you hope for a predetermined result and then make experiments which show that result.

As far as other countries, why would any other country listen to us when we aren't united in any way on the issue? A Republican president or legislature getting elected would end any sort of policy on the matter, and it is typically unwise to make some sort of agreement with a party that is likely to be broken (as any agreement with us would be).

why is it up to the US

we have decreased carbon emissions by 5% over the last 10 years

why dont they see that and follow suit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 03, 2021, 12:05:02 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 02, 2021, 08:06:20 PM

why is it up to the US

we have decreased carbon emissions by 5% over the last 10 years

why dont they see that and follow suit

Quite a few other countries have done a lot:


(https://i.imgur.com/UAMmobj.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/JigtFQy.png)

This is per-capita BTW, so it is adjusted for population. Latest data only goes to 2016 that I can find in downloadable spreadsheet form to make graphs.

The EU between 1980 and now has had a larger percentage decline than the US. The US has more of a decline from 2006->2016... A good portion of that could be due to the Great Recession and homebuilding coming to a screeching halt... But our graph is somewhat similar to both the OECD (which includes us, of course) and the EU (which doesn't) regarding seeing a decent drop over the last decade. It's not like we're the ONLY country that has had a drop. 

On the country-by-country basis, it's a lot more noisy, but you can see that same trend over the last decade of the graph from pretty much all developed nations. Some more than others, but with the exception of China and India, the trends are downward. So again, it's not like other countries are not following suit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2021, 12:18:02 PM

Despite some major efforts and spending, you can see the progress by any European country has been relatively modest, certainly no major decline over a nine year period.

Russia did well.  Oops.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 03, 2021, 12:44:01 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2021, 12:18:02 PM

Despite some major efforts and spending, you can see the progress by any European country has been relatively modest, certainly no major decline over a nine year period.

Russia did well.  Oops.

True, but the Euro region also had a lot more declines over the prior period. The US was flat up until about 2006, whereas the Euro area was declining [albeit slowly] throughout that period. 

Not sure what to make of Russia. Was it the fall of communism or the breakup of the Soviet Union which pushed a lot of emission tracking to the former Bloc states? Either way, they haven't declined in any way since.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2021, 12:51:16 PM

Russia also contracted geographically a lot, don't know if that is corrected.

But nobody otherwise has shown a marked drop in CO2 emissions to date.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 03, 2021, 01:00:38 PM

and no one will the next couple years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2021, 01:17:36 PM

China and India account for over 35% of carbon emissions

Its clear to me they have absolutely no intention of reducing carbon emissions 

If it is to be a successful global effort they will have to get on board

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 03, 2021, 01:20:14 PM

Russia is also in the group of "absolutely no intention"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 03, 2021, 01:21:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2021, 12:51:16 PM

But nobody otherwise has shown a marked drop in CO2 emissions to date.

But most have been showing steady per-capita reductions. 

Will it be enough? Probably not. Will it buy more time to get to what might be "enough" (i.e. some technological advance that really tips the scales the other way)? Also probably not, but every extra year of time is good here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2021, 01:26:22 PM

I have no problem with sensible goals to reduce CO2 emissions, emphasis on sensible.

We can look at what Germany has managed at considerable costs over the past nine years or so to see what is really practicable as a goal.  The US could do better because we generate more per capita now, but the cost to Germany has been high to achieve a moderate reduction, and it gets tougher for them as they close their nuclear plants.

(https://i.imgur.com/GdIaM0o.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 08:42:07 AM

Climate is everything | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/02/climate-is-everything/#more-27418)

Noting how all of societal ills get blamed on climate change to suggest if we solve climate we solve everything else, in effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 08:44:41 AM

Has anyone found something like the crude outline of a notion of a proposed "plan" anywhere?  I'm still looking.

Maybe we just throw money at it and hope some useful good happens?

Probably.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 05, 2021, 09:48:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 08:44:41 AM

Has anyone found something like the crude outline of a notion of a proposed "plan" anywhere?  I'm still looking.

Maybe we just throw money at it and hope some useful good happens?

Probably.

I think the plan is to keep asking the same question until the earth casts itself into the sun

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2021, 09:51:53 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 08:44:41 AM

Has anyone found something like the crude outline of a notion of a proposed "plan" anywhere?  I'm still looking.

Maybe we just throw money at it and hope some useful good happens?

Probably.

What if you stop asking for a cohesive national plan and start looking at individual elements? After all, if you have a single plan then every political interest that is negatively impacted by any individual element will band together and kill it. But if you implement things as individual elements, you can chip away at the carbon economy without goring everyone's ox at once. 

I can see several elements, some that exist, some that are proposed, that could help reduce CO2 emissions:

• Rising CAFE standards for auto fleets. (already in place) 
• Subsidies for EVs. (already in place)
• Subsidies for solar. (already in place)
• Carbon tax. (not in place)
• Forced movement away from coal [somehow]. (not in place)
• Subsidies to improve energy efficiency of existing homestock [i.e. cash for caulkers]. (not in place because it was proposed too quickly after the failure that was cash for clunkers--but perhaps could be revived)
• Policies to increase density of cities and improve transit. (hodgepodge across various states/locales)
• Having state vehicle registration fees be correlated to the curb weight of a vehicle rather than flat or tied to the vehicle's market value. (pipe dream I had when I used to ride a motorcycle, but heavier vehicles cause more road damage AND typically have higher emissions, so it's a double whammy)

I'm sure I could go on. Perhaps nobody has put them all together, wrapped a pretty bow describing the aggregate emissions drop which will result [and the gigantic price tag it will cost] on it, and then put a giant target on their back to be shot at over it. That's what you're calling a "plan". 

However I think we can get farther, faster, if we break it up into disparate elements and push those elements individually. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2021, 09:54:20 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2021, 09:51:53 AM

What if you stop asking for a cohesive national plan and start looking at individual elements? After all, if you have a single plan then every political interest that is negatively impacted by any individual element will band together and kill it. But if you implement things as individual elements, you can chip away at the carbon economy without goring everyone's ox at once.

I can see several elements, some that exist, some that are proposed, that could help reduce CO2 emissions:

• Rising CAFE standards for auto fleets. (already in place)
• Subsidies for EVs. (already in place)
• Subsidies for solar. (already in place)
• Carbon tax. (not in place)
• Forced movement away from coal [somehow]. (not in place)
• Subsidies to improve energy efficiency of existing homestock [i.e. cash for caulkers]. (not in place because it was proposed too quickly after the failure that was cash for clunkers--but perhaps could be revived)
• Policies to increase density of cities and improve transit. (hodgepodge across various states/locales)
• Having state vehicle registration fees be correlated to the curb weight of a vehicle rather than flat or tied to the vehicle's market value. (pipe dream I had when I used to ride a motorcycle, but heavier vehicles cause more road damage AND typically have higher emissions, so it's a double whammy)

I'm sure I could go on. Perhaps nobody has put them all together, wrapped a pretty bow describing the aggregate emissions drop which will result [and the gigantic price tag it will cost] on it, and then put a giant target on their back to be shot at over it. That's what you're calling a "plan".

However I think we can get farther, faster, if we break it up into disparate elements and push those elements individually.

Sounds like a plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 05, 2021, 10:55:27 AM

why do you guys just ignore my point that nothing the US does by itself will do nothing but just cost the US taxpayers money

The US is only 15% of the worlds carbon emissions and on top of that has reduced its carbon emissions already

the other 85% of the world will have to be brought into the carbon emission reduction arena or nothing the US does will make a difference

Wake me when China and India come out with a carbon emission reduction policy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 11:20:25 AM

I surmise everyone understands we have bits and pieces out there, we still have not addressed the KEY question, what do we get for the money?

Cost:benefit.  That would be part of any real "plan".  All those bits and pieces, as I've shown, amount to diddley if the goal is to slow climate change significantly, diddley, an unmeasurable amount.  Even if Europe does the same, it's an unmeasurably small benefit.  Even if China gets on board and stops building coal plants, it's a small impact on a large problem.

Now, maybe the effort it worth it, some small benefit, perhaps, but I'd like to see the calculations.  All the one's I've seen show benefits that are simply too small to matter, at all, but curiously those are published by folks like Lonborg who have a dog in the fight, so I don't believe him.

But everything I can find clearly shows we can't do much, now, about the problem in any practical sense, rearrange some deck chairs into a more holistic pattern.

So, if we DO all the bits and pieces, what do the models suggest will be the benefit?  Answer?  Very very little.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2021, 11:45:25 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 05, 2021, 10:55:27 AM

why do you guys just ignore my point that nothing the US does by itself will do nothing but just cost the US taxpayers money

The US is only 15% of the worlds carbon emissions and on top of that has reduced its carbon emissions already

the other 85% of the world will have to be brought into the carbon emission reduction arena or nothing the US does will make a difference

Wake me when China and India come out with a carbon emission reduction policy

I don't ignore this. Without China and India on board, all of this talk is pointless.

Of course, China would love for the USA (to print more money) to invest trillions of dollars (not backed by gold). That will speed up the end game for them, to become the World's bank.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 05, 2021, 11:56:50 AM

Definitely, a multinational approach is essential. But the challenges presented by the politics of this country are almost insurmountable, and that's without using any other country as a scapegoat 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 11:59:18 AM

The issue is not political, it's technical.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 05, 2021, 12:06:32 PM

The issues are political, technical, and otherwise

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 12:08:26 PM

Even if we had complete political agreement about doing "something", my core technical point remains obvious and unchallenged.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 05, 2021, 12:10:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 12:08:26 PM

Even if we had complete political agreement about doing "something", my core technical point remains obvious and unchallenged.

Lol, no it doesn't. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2021, 12:17:26 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 11:20:25 AM

I surmise everyone understands we have bits and pieces out there, we still have not addressed the KEY question, what do we get for the money?

Cost:benefit.  That would be part of any real "plan".  All those bits and pieces, as I've shown, amount to diddley if the goal is to slow climate change significantly, diddley, an unmeasurable amount.  Even if Europe does the same, it's an unmeasurably small benefit.  Even if China gets on board and stops building coal plants, it's a small impact on a large problem.

Now, maybe the effort it worth it, some small benefit, perhaps, but I'd like to see the calculations.  All the one's I've seen show benefits that are simply too small to matter, at all, but curiously those are published by folks like Lonborg who have a dog in the fight, so I don't believe him.

But everything I can find clearly shows we can't do much, now, about the problem in any practical sense, rearrange some deck chairs into a more holistic pattern.

So, if we DO all the bits and pieces, what do the models suggest will be the benefit?  Answer?  Very very little.

Hey... Maybe you're right. Maybe you're not. I don't know.

I was trying to pick things that may have other ancillary benefits.

Anything related to energy efficiency IMHO is a net gain. Tighter CAFE standards will reduce CO2, but will also reduce other automotive pollution too. That's a good thing.  Encouraging solar, wind, and nuclear [with subsidies as necessary] moves our entire energy grid to a less-impactful energy source on our environment. Improving existing housing stock efficiency reduces energy demand. Increased urbanization and density has positive network effects on the economy. 

And a carbon tax just makes sense--gotta tax something, so why not pick carbon instead of discouraging something we want?

Do the calculations bear out that it will solve all negative effects of climate change? Maybe not. But that doesn't mean that these bits and pieces aren't good first steps, right?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 12:18:03 PM

I've laid the challenges out pretty clearly I think, without nuclear, we have no chance at all.  The math is very clear.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 12:20:00 PM

They may be good first steps, I'm fine with a reasonable carbon tax.  I think 'we' should be realistic about what is achievable, even if Congress passed some, um, "plan".

I think closing down coal fired power plants has multiple benefits in terms of pollution and environmental spoilage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 12:25:35 PM

I've posted this before about Paris, presuming every nation meets their targets (which frankly is very very unlikely of course).

How much of a difference will the Paris Agreement make? | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology (https://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422)

Assuming a climate system response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that’s of median strength, the three scenarios reduce the SAT in 2100 between 0.6 and 1.1 C relative to the “no climate policy” case. But because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1 C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2 C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6 C — far exceeding the 2 C goal.

“The Paris agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, but it is only a step,” said Monier. “It puts us on the right path to keep warming under 3 C, but even under the same level of commitment of the Paris agreement after 2030, our study indicates a 95 percent probability that the world will warm by more than 2 C by 2100.”

Planet has just 5% chance of reaching Paris climate goal, study says | Paris climate agreement | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/31/paris-climate-deal-2c-warming-study)

Most countries aren't hitting Paris climate goals, and everyone will pay the price (nationalgeographic.com) (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions)

Why can't we stop blaming politics and other stuff and start facing hard reality?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 12:38:05 PM

I personally would focus on coal, they are the dirtiest, and produce the most carbon per kwhr.  Get coal to zero or near zero, it would have broad benefits.  But coal is baseline power, that steady producer you need all the time, and the best thing to replace it is nuclear.  Wind and solar are intermittent, and batteries won't save that for a long time.  

So, then you supplement with NG peaker plants, turbines.  And perhaps with EVs in a decade or so we could show some modest progress at reducing normal pollution and some CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 05, 2021, 12:40:49 PM

Quote

the three scenarios reduce the SAT in 2100 between 0.6 and 1.1 C relative to the “no climate policy” case.

Quote

Why can't we stop blaming politics and other stuff and start facing hard reality

It feels as if you aren't reading your own links

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2021, 12:48:05 PM

Reality. Need to face it.

COMMENTARY: China is building 184 coal plants – Guess what that will do to carbon emissions? - Mark Milke and Ven Venkatachalam - Energy News for the Canadian Oil & Gas Industry | EnergyNow.ca (https://energynow.ca/2020/12/commentary-china-is-building-184-coal-plants-guess-what-that-will-do-to-carbon-emissions-mark-milke-and-ven-venkatachalam/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 12:55:02 PM

I read them carefully, and the say what I've been saying, very obviously.

But folks prefer to wave their hands and say "wind and solar" with no real plan, and no real chance of making a significant difference.

Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2 C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6 C — far exceeding the 2 C goal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 01:16:57 PM

Compressed Air Energy Storage: New Facilities, How the Tech Works (popularmechanics.com) (https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a36300986/compressed-air-grid-energy-storage-system/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=socialflowFBPOP&fbclid=IwAR3WASGUhSClo6h2TFG1e3_ejztKtRCjS04bZ6534rxPxkIpOE0SLyJD6aE)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on May 05, 2021, 03:18:30 PM

If we had a policy that could have reduced COVID deaths by between 10 and 30 percent, that's roughly 300K to 1 million people. Not everything. Also not nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 03:22:22 PM

The Paris goals are insufficient.  They also won't be met.  "We" probably should face up to that fact.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 09:32:27 AM

Let's imagine Congress appropriates a lot of money to combat climate change, and over time, reports come in that the country isn't really approaching the goal of a 50% reduction in CO2 generation by 2030.  We can see that for European countries now, so it's not something we might not expect, it's pretty obvious when you look at numbers.

So, by 2028 say, it's obvious we're going to miss, rather badly.  What then?  People will become frustrated and fatalistic, instead of being told obvious truths NOW and given reasonable expectations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 06, 2021, 09:49:37 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 05, 2021, 10:55:27 AM

why do you guys just ignore my point that nothing the US does by itself will do nothing but just cost the US taxpayers money

nobody has ignored that,CD,847 and others have brought this up at least every other page.That was part of the gist of the video I left.China has done one thing decent that I'm aware of and that is trying to curb over population

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 06, 2021, 09:54:51 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2021, 01:17:36 PM

China and India account for over 35% of carbon emissions

Its clear to me they have absolutely no intention of reducing carbon emissions

If it is to be a successful global effort they will have to get on board

Presicely

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 09:57:40 AM

it's not going to be a successful effort even if all nations are on board

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 06, 2021, 10:04:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 03:22:22 PM

The Paris goals are insufficient.  They also won't be met.  "We" probably should face up to that fact.

So going full Amish or Native American is the only real workable solution?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 10:05:36 AM

If "we" had started in earnest in say 2000, "we" might have been able to make a consequential difference.

With nuclear off the table, all I see is promises with no substance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 10:08:43 AM

China's greenhouse gas emissions exceed U.S., developed world: Report (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/chinas-greenhouse-gas-emissions-exceed-us-developed-world-report.html)

China’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 exceeded those of the U.S. and the developed world combined, according to a report (https://rhg.com/research/chinas-emissions-surpass-developed-countries/) published Thursday by research and consulting firm Rhodium Group.
China’s emissions more than tripled during the past three decades, the report added.

China is now responsible for more than 27% of total global emissions. The U.S., which is the world’s second highest emitter, accounts for 11% of the global total. India is responsible for 6.6% of global emissions, edging out the 27 nations in the E.U., which account for 6.4%, the report said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 10:13:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/w7UN43F.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 06, 2021, 10:20:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 10:05:36 AM

With nuclear off the table, all I see is promises with no substance.

I just went by the Davis-Besse Nuclear Plant yesterday it's right off of rte 2.Very clean and didn't seem revolting or dirty

Owned by FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Company, Davis-Besse is a pressurized-water nuclear reactor that produces 908 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 450,000 homes without producing greenhouse gasses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 10:39:30 AM

That may be, but it's not an option in the US, nor in Germany and Japan.  We're closing our units faster than they are coming on line for the next decade.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 11:38:19 AM

A landmark United Nations report has declared that drastically cutting emissions of methane, a key component of natural gas, is necessary to avoid the worst impacts of global climate change.
The world could slash human-caused methane emissions by up to 45% this decade, according to the Global Methane Assessment.
The report represents a shift in the worldwide conversation on how to best address the climate crisis, which has focused on setting longer-term carbon dioxide reduction targets.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/world-must-cut-methane-emissions-to-avoid-worst-of-climate-change-un-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/world-must-cut-methane-emissions-to-avoid-worst-of-climate-change-un-says.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 11:50:14 AM

I think we could practicably do a better job with methane release.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 06, 2021, 11:59:29 AM

The Saturn Moon Titan has liquid methane lakes, and it's pretty chilly. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 12:05:29 PM

Methane is interesting, it's CH4 of course, "swamp gas", generated naturally by anaerobic "fermentation" of organic biomass.  Old land fills usually have a methane recovery system of pipes in them, many do anyway.  Then they flare it off, it has low fuel value because there is a lot of CO2 in it as well.

I had a composter in Cincy in the back yard where I disposed of a lot of food and yard waste.  I had to turn it pretty often to keep it from matting and going anaerobic and smelly.  The funny thing is when the waste was digested, there was almost nothing left, you didn't get handfuls of nice compost, maybe A handful, maybe.

We have a bin downstairs here for compostable waste that someone collects.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 06, 2021, 12:21:04 PM

Nuclear should have been the bridge to gap coal and solar/wind, but we ditched it for 30 years and are running away from it now that it didn't just pick right up where it left off.
Duh, an entire generation of workers aren't nuclear plant-ready because it wasn't a potential job as they grew up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 06, 2021, 12:34:57 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 06, 2021, 10:20:54 AM

I just went by the Davis-Besse Nuclear Plant yesterday it's right off of rte 2.Very clean and didn't seem revolting or dirty

Owned by FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Company, Davis-Besse is a pressurized-water nuclear reactor that produces 908 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 450,000 homes without producing greenhouse gasses.

My son's in-laws have a seasonal camp site just about a mile from there. Nice campgrounds right on the lake. Very clean and orderly and with all of the trees, you don't even notice the nuclear plant. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 02:09:30 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 06, 2021, 12:21:04 PM

Nuclear should have been the bridge to gap coal and solar/wind, but we ditched it for 30 years and are running away from it now that it didn't just pick right up where it left off.
Duh, an entire generation of workers aren't nuclear plant-ready because it wasn't a potential job as they grew up.

Nuclear power is "not the same kind" as wind and solar, one is steady, the others are intermittent.

Nuclear is also space intensive, it takes up little space per kwhr.

We should reprocess our spent fuel, like France does.

"We" don't like solutions, only problems.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 06, 2021, 03:55:55 PM

As I understand, nuclear is also quite expensive. I think many of the reasons for this are artificial [much regulatory], from what I've read. But some are related to the access to fuel, which isn't just falling from the sky [or else we'd all have died of radiation poisoning].

But I think that's a lot of the reason that we walked away from it for 30 years... It was economic.

'Course, a permissive regulatory environment and a carbon tax would make it a hell of a lot more economic... But nobody listened to me before... Why would they start now?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 03:59:07 PM

Nuclear is very expensive.  IF we could build standardized reactors instead of one offs, it would help enormously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 04:16:25 PM

we could

but, we won't

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2021, 10:59:58 AM

Rural America Gets Bad Vibrations From Big Wind - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/rural-america-gets-bad-vibrations-from-big-wind-11620251138?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR0pEzk2F0vumYdDU7jbXjqfYfp9IPIuaXciKV_tuTx8y6hNJojHP4Ycvt8)

Wind turbines are popular—in theory. Gallup data show about 70% of Americans want “more emphasis” on wind energy. Plenty of politicians like the idea, too. President Biden’s proposed Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard calls for “tens of thousands of wind turbines.”

But where, exactly, will all those turbines be built? That question matters because [color=var(--color-blue)]local governments across the country are rejecting (https://www.americanexperiment.org/reports/not-in-our-backyard)[/url] wind energy projects. Since 2015, about 300 government entities from Vermont to Hawaii have rejected or restricted wind projects. In March the select board in Scituate, Mass., ordered a wind turbine in the coastal town to be shut down at night from mid-May to mid-October. The problem, according to the Boston Globe: complaints from neighbors who say “they can’t sleep at night because of noise” the wind turbine makes.[/font][/size][/color]

The planning board in Foster, R.I., voted 5-1 on April 7 to ban wind turbines. The board took action after hearing from residents of Portsmouth, R.I., who had turbines built near their homes. The Valley Breeze newspaper reported that Portsmouth residents warned the board “about their experiences, complaining about constant noise disturbances, vibrations, and loss in home values from turbines in their neighborhood.”

These aren’t isolated examples. John Riggi, a town councilman in Yates, N.Y., has been fighting a proposed 200-megawatt wind project for seven years. He told me his community and others “are fighting to keep our lands free from environmentally destructive, culture-killing and unwanted industrial renewable-energy projects.”

These land-use conflicts are the binding constraint on the expansion of renewable-energy development in the U.S. These conflicts are coming to the fore at the same time the Biden administration is pushing a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure package that includes tens of billions of dollars in new spending on wind and solar energy as well as the construction of “thousands of miles” of high-voltage transmission lines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2021, 11:41:59 AM

well, ya don't put the turbine within a block of a house or residence

that's easy enough

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 07, 2021, 12:27:37 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 07, 2021, 11:41:59 AM

well, ya don't put the turbine within a block of a house or residence

that's easy enough

pretty easy in Texas but ya gotta remember to have a way of keeping them from f@#ken freezing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2021, 01:09:23 PM

When I was doing work on wind farms (before all the subsidies were cancelled) the most difficult parts were logistics. Putting up a big pole with a fan is easy. And then...

We had to widen roads to accommodate those long ass trucks, for one. Then, the routing for the transmission lines. That was a bitch and a half.

Anyone ever see the caissons these big poles are anchored to? Holy hell.

Not to mention finding willing landowners to grant leases/easements and then permitting.

People seem to not think about all that goes into these things. It ain't just putting up a pole with a fan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2021, 01:33:08 PM

(https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/97ab688/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2048x1365+0+0/resize/1486x990!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F51%2F4c%2F6c46d6257657fc93da6a3f82b70f%2Fla-1515627771-9tgvdp9s47-snap-image)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2021, 01:58:32 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2021, 01:09:23 PM

When I was doing work on wind farms (before all the subsidies were cancelled) the most difficult parts were logistics. Putting up a big pole with a fan is easy. And then...

We had to widen roads to accommodate those long ass trucks, for one. Then, the routing for the transmission lines. That was a bitch and a half.

Anyone ever see the caissons these big poles are anchored to? Holy hell.

Not to mention finding willing landowners to grant leases/easements and then permitting.

People seem to not think about all that goes into these things. It ain't just putting up a pole with a fan.

landowners should be available if paying as they were a few years ago for the lease and easements.  Can't grow enough corn to make the same money.  Got a big pole and fan on my Grandfather's farmland.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2021, 03:46:18 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/p180x540/176449342_325314842337333_7492724740428078880_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=M3tglA6a_woAX_0aniO&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=640b0937b4303fbb87fb253e2a2b9f61&oe=60BC9BFD)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on May 07, 2021, 05:35:15 PM

Always a Hoot seeing a turbine being transported through a cloverleaf interchange.  

Driving through the one that runs across 65 north of Lafayette is pretty amazing at dusk.  Feel like 4,000 red eyes upon you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2021, 10:42:54 PM

and the 4,000 red eyes blinking in unison

fiber optic network

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2021, 09:43:17 AM

Interesting read. Venice is really in trouble. We had to avoid many "puddles" a couple of years ago.

Venice and cruise ships: the story behind the government ban (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/venice-and-cruise-ships-the-story-behind-the-government-ban/ar-BB1guW8B?ocid=msedgntp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 08, 2021, 09:57:33 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on May 07, 2021, 05:35:15 PM

Always a Hoot seeing a turbine being transported through a cloverleaf interchange. 

Driving through the one that runs across 65 north of Lafayette is pretty amazing at dusk.  Feel like 4,000 red eyes upon you.

I'm trying to envision how they would traverse them through a mountain pass. I've seen windmill farms in some pretty remote valleys. 

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.basinandrangewatch.org%2Fimages%2FSpring-Val-WheelerPk-close.jpg&hash=7e8199443cbba515b560eb247f8cc35f)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2021, 01:50:11 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/p526x296/183401044_4703058133048494_4844859660315997716_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=qT8simIsIx8AX8keqpg&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=06a42a3b52e6ffd8619bbf65128fa20d&oe=60BC275B)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2021, 02:00:21 PM

I thought the collapse of the Atlantic conveyor had been discounted as a possibility.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2021, 02:00:39 PM

Paris is on the same latitude as Montreal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 08, 2021, 02:18:24 PM

Scottish comedian Frankie Boyle proposes cannibalism.

If everyone ate exactly one person, they would cut their carbon footprint in half.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2021, 02:21:38 PM

revived for click bait?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2021, 11:21:50 PM

You would think with China being one of the countries who signed the 2016 Paris Agreement to combat climate change, the communist nation might have made some strides in the years since. Well, they did, only not in a positive way.

According to a report by the Rhodium Group, a group that provides “economic data analytics and policy insight” to both the private and public sectors, reported that “for the first time since national greenhouse gas emissions have been measured, China’s annual emissions exceeded those of all developed countries combined” in 2019.

The report noted:

Based on our newly updated preliminary estimates for 2019, global emissions—including emissions of all six Kyoto gases, inclusive of land-use and forests and international bunkers—reached 52 gigatons of CO2-equivalent in 2019, a 11.4% increase over the past decade. China alone contributed over 27% of total global emissions, far exceeding the US—the second highest emitter—which contributed 11% of the global total. For the first time, India edged out the EU-27 for third place, coming in at 6.6% of global emissions.

Judging by those numbers, China has 2.5 times the emissions than the U.S., who came in second, and four times the emissions of third place India.

But that’s not all. Since 1990, China has “more than tripled” their emissions.


https://www.mrctv.org/blog/report-chinas-carbon-emissions-greater-all-other-developed-countriescombined?fbclid=IwAR1WJVlHD6woeP5qPGXnZfwynuhhitYnouhu6gvCdQ9-JVyg2x0_hL_fe7w (https://www.mrctv.org/blog/report-chinas-carbon-emissions-greater-all-other-developed-countriescombined?fbclid=IwAR1WJVlHD6woeP5qPGXnZfwynuhhitYnouhu6gvCdQ9-JVyg2x0_hL_fe7w)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 09, 2021, 09:24:53 AM

^^^^^^

All of that, while also beating us over the head with corporate collusion, rampant IP theft, and jingoistic and abusive trade policies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 09, 2021, 09:26:51 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5aZJBLAu1E

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2021, 09:46:35 AM

CICERO (https://cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima/can-we-really-limit-global-warming-to-well-below-two-degrees-centigrade)

It is a question that I am asked a lot: Is the “well below” two degree target set out in the Paris Climate Agreement feasible?
Most recently, a study published in Nature Geoscience suggests that it could indeed still be feasible.
My answer is, yes, I think it is. But only in a theoretical sense, in a model. Not in practice.
Here is why.
Defining “well below” two degrees
The ambition of the Paris Agreement has become well-known:
“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”
But the text is suitably ambiguous that many different interpretations are possible. Rather convenient for policy makers who need some wiggle room if they don’t deliver on their promises.
If we are to stand any chance of meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, we first need to define exactly what “well below” two degrees centigrade means in practice.
The scientific community often expresses temperature targets with a given probability, to encompass uncertainties in the climate system. An important uncertainty is how much the climate may warm for a given amount of carbon dioxide emissions.
(https://cicero.oslo.no/file/crop/37951c902ebfd3fe6079143cb5338f38)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2021, 09:48:55 AM

In recent years, the renewable technology sector has grown, particularly in solar, wind, and electric vehicles. This positive trend is welcome and must continue.
But to reduce emissions, we need to stop burning fossil fuels. Without carbon capture and storage, that means progressively phasing out coal, oil, and gas.
This means early retirement of existing fossil fuel infrastructure, particularly in developing countries that are currently increasing their stock of infrastructure despite cancelling some projects.
As fossil fuel infrastructure declines, low carbon infrastructure has to grow to replace it, while still maintaining security of energy supply. For this to happen with higher levels of renewable energy penetration, we will need new technologies, such as batteries and power demand management.

Very few scientists are happy to answer this question, particularly in a public forum.
Some are concerned the wrong answer may slowdown current mitigation efforts. Others argue it is not our role as scientists to prejudge what is feasible. Yet others argue that feasibility changes over time.
I see my role as a scientist to point out the obstacles and challenges, not just tell the positive news stories so others can sleep well at night. Understanding feasibility is important to adequately plan for adaptation and to ensure we get mitigation policies right.
Yes, I think “well below” two degrees is feasible in a model, in a theoretical sense. But not in practice. Why not?
First, policy will move along slower than expected because politicians have to balance competing objectives, and it is hard to see that climate will be the policy area that trumps all others.
Second, I am confident we will make technological progress in key areas, with government and business support, but I am less confident we can retire existing fossil fuel infrastructure at the required rates.
Third, carbon dioxide removal technologies are technically feasible, but I am sceptical that we can reach the scale of carbon dioxide removal required.
And finally, the most challenging mitigation will be in the countries that most desperately need economic growth.
My pessimism does not mean we should not try. It is important to distinguish between ambition and feasibility, and we can’t preclude technological, political, or social breakthroughs.
The only hope, is to hope that I am wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2021, 09:49:33 AM

I expect to see a few more folks fessing up, so to speak, and voicing some realism about the issue.

They won't get much play in MSM of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 09, 2021, 03:09:18 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 08, 2021, 11:21:50 PM

You would think with China being one of the countries who signed the 2016 Paris Agreement to combat climate change, the communist nation might have made some strides in the years since. Well, they did, only not in a positive way.

Ya well according to the CCP they only lost 5,900 or sum such to COVID.So how far off can the possibly be

And it snowed today on and off for about an hour,none of it stuck as the rain has taken over

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2021, 03:27:40 PM

China  under Paris doesn't have to do anything until 2030, same with India.  I understand why this is the case, but both have an interest in setting a high mark for CO2 production so they can begin cutting it some after 2030.

Ostensibly.  And of course, if they fail to cut it then, there is no penalty beyond hand wringing.

But it's easy to make promises and set goals which no one will achieve.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2021, 12:30:37 PM

Climate book shelf | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/10/climate-book-shelf-2/#more-27469)

The science/policy interface is dealt with explicitly by Mann, Koonin and Morano. Koonin touches on some of the key issues regarding the disfunction at this interface.
With regards to mitigation. Morano argues that it isn’t necessary, Lomborg and Koonin argue that it is ineffective at influencing the climate, and Schellenberger and Gates argue for better technologies (with Schellenberger focused on nuclear).
While covering similar territory (climate politics), Morano’s book is the polar opposite of Mann’s book in terms of perspective and who are the villains. Both books are somewhat polemical, but present two very different political world views.
A wicked problem is characterized by multiple problem definitions, knowability, knowledge fragmentation, interest differentiation and a dysfunction distribution of power among stakeholders. These different perspectives clearly reflect the wickedness of the climate change problem.
The most useful way to grapple with this wickedness is to understand multiple perspectives on the problem. This involves individuals reading both Mann’s and Morano’s books, and not attempting to cancel the books that don’t align with your own perspective.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2021, 01:06:23 PM

The anatomy of past abrupt warmings recorded in Greenland ice | Nature Communications (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22241-w)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2021, 07:44:05 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/70uXXsr.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 09:45:48 AM

Renewables grew at fastest rate in two decades last year, IEA says in new report (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/11/renewables-grew-at-fastest-rate-in-two-decades-last-year-iea-says-in-new-report.html)


Capacity added jumped 45% to 280 gigawatts last year.

The article omits some relevant information, e.g., how much electricity we produce a year, over 7,000 gW.  One can grow impressively over a small base and remain a fairly small base.  The 280 is basically rounding error.


Projected electricity generation capacity worldwide from 2018 to 2050 (in gigawatts)

[th][/th] [th]Electricity generation capacity in gigawatts[/th]
2030*	9,219.6
2025*	8,031.7
2020*	7,228.4
2018	6,784.1

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ALA2262 on May 11, 2021, 10:23:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2021, 09:49:33 AM

I expect to see a few more folks fessing up, so to speak, and voicing some realism about the issue.

They won't get much play in MSM of course.

There would be a huge climate change before that happens. Like Hell freezing over. The Earth has a roughly 36 year cycle of climate change. Eighteen years increase and then eighteen years decrease. The climate change boys whine about it for 18 years and then lie about it for 18 years. Actually it has been 23 years since the Earth had a temperature increase.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 11:30:18 AM

I'm not talking about denying anthropogenic climate change.  I'm talking about our inherent inability to alter the path very much at all if the models are right.

I'm reasonably satisfied our climate has been warming for decades now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 01:31:23 PM

I'm using my half hour for lunch to dump 6 used tires in a burn hole for large trees and root balls

using my V8 pickup truck to haul the load

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 01:54:14 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 01:31:23 PM

I'm using my half hour for lunch to dump 6 used tires in a burn hole for large trees and root balls

using my V8 pickup truck to haul the load

good job its nice to see you doing your part to fight carbon emissions

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 02:41:44 PM

saved me $60

the Tire Shop wanted $60 to "dispose" of the old tires

I'll use the $60 towards gasoline as prices climb

put a carbon tax on gasoline - that will help

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 08:15:40 AM

Gravity-based batteries try to beat their chemical cousins with winches, weights, and mine shafts | Science | AAAS (sciencemag.org) (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/gravity-based-batteries-try-beat-their-chemical-cousins-winches-weights-and-mine-shafts?utm_campaign=ScienceNow&utm_source=JHubbard&utm_medium=Facebook)

Gravitricity is one of a handful of gravity-based energy storage companies attempting to improve on an old idea: pumped hydroelectric power storage. Engineers would dam up a reservoir on a hill, pump water to it at times of low demand (usually at night), and release it to generate electricity. But the systems require specific terrain, expensive infrastructure, and planning approval that is increasingly hard to come by. These days, banking energy usually means hooking up renewable power to giant batteries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 13, 2021, 11:19:38 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 11:30:18 AM

I'm not talking about denying anthropogenic climate change.  I'm talking about our inherent inability to alter the path very much at all if the models are right.

I'm reasonably satisfied our climate has been warming for decades now.

I wouldn't call it satisfied.If true it is and absolute abomination to Polar Bears/Penguins/Walruses.....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 13, 2021, 11:21:49 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 01:31:23 PM

I'm using my half hour for lunch to dump 6 used tires in a burn hole?

Huh?they will see your campfire for miles if serious Clark

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2021, 12:46:22 PM

if you burn at night, they only see the flames, not the black smoke rolling

besides, not my burn hole, I just contributed the 6 tires.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 12:51:56 PM

Some facts, and some conclusions about climate change:

1.  CO2 levels are rising from about 280 ppm preindustrial to about 410 ppm today.  Fact.
2.  CO2 is a known green house gas.  (Without it, our climate would be considerably cooler.)
3.  More CO2 should contribute to a warming climate, how much and when is debatable.
4.  Glacial and arctic ice has been retreating for decades now, Antarctic ice is a more complex story apparently.
5.  Various MODELS predict overall warming of our climate over the next 80 years or so by up to 7°C if nothing is done.  The goals are to try and keep this under 2°C.  6.  Apparently we already have warmed about 1°C.

I don't think anyone argues with any of that, you can certainly say the models are wrong (they certainly are).  All models are wrong, some are useful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 13, 2021, 12:56:01 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 12:51:56 PM

Some facts, and some conclusions about climate change:

1.  CO2 levels are rising from about 280 ppm preindustrial to about 410 ppm today.  Fact.
2.  CO2 is a known green house gas.  (Without it, our climate would be considerably cooler.)
3.  More CO2 should contribute to a warming climate, how much and when is debatable.
4.  Glacial and arctic ice has been retreating for decades now, Antarctic ice is a more complex story apparently.
5.  Various MODELS predict overall warming of our climate over the next 80 years or so by up to 7°C if nothing is done.  The goals are to try and keep this under 2°C. 
6.  Apparently we already have warmed about 1°C.

I don't think anyone argues with any of that, you can certainly say the models are wrong (they certainly are).  All models are wrong, some are useful.

Some people argue with a lot of that. I don't find any of their arguments credible or consistent with our best scientific knowledge on the subject, but that doesn't stop them from arguing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 01:06:34 PM

I don't think any of that is other than known fact.  A person can of course discount the models, which are hyper complex.

Folks usually believe, or not, based on political leanings rather than technical analysis.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2021, 10:59:49 AM

Looks like we have our first tropical storm in the Atlantic. The name is Ana. Not expected to amount to anything more, which is good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 22, 2021, 11:12:06 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 13, 2021, 12:46:22 PM

if you burn at night, they only see the flames, not the black smoke rolling

besides, not my burn hole, I just contributed the 6 tires.

Out here the kids will occasionally burn one inside of a Volcano pit, as a prank. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:35:46 PM

Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050 | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/19/projecting-manmade-climate-change-scenarios-to-2050/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 11:25:27 AM

https://apnews.com/article/environment-and-nature-science-985338e4396ae3e9370bb42cdf9d8c92 (https://apnews.com/article/environment-and-nature-science-985338e4396ae3e9370bb42cdf9d8c92)


There’s a 40% chance that the world will get so hot in the next five years that it will temporarily push past the temperature limit the Paris climate agreement is trying to prevent, meteorologists said.

A new World Meteorological Organization forecast for the next several years also predicts a 90% chance that the world will set yet another record for the hottest year by the end of 2025 and that the Atlantic will continue to brew more potentially dangerous hurricanes than it used to.

For this year, the meteorologists say large parts of land in the Northern Hemisphere will be 1.4 degrees (0.8 degrees Celsius) warmer than recent decades and that the U.S. Southwest’s drought will continue.

The 2015 Paris climate accord set a goal of keeping warming to a few tenths of a degree warmer from now. The report said there is a 40% chance that at least one of the next five years will be 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial times — the more stringent of two Paris goals. The world is already 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 11:52:24 AM

So when this prediction doesnt come true will there be anyone pointing that out?

Nope just more predictions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 12:46:41 PM

I think the climate is in fact warming.  It's not as easy to measure as one might think of course.  But the odds we blow past any 1.5°C warming are nearly 100%.  The sun might enter a down cycle and attenuate that.  Measuring mean global T is not easily and reliably done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on May 28, 2021, 01:21:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 12:46:41 PM

I think the climate is in fact warming.  It's not as easy to measure as one might think of course.  But the odds we blow past any 1.5°C warming are nearly 100%.  The sun might enter a down cycle and attenuate that.  Measuring mean global T is not easily and reliably done.

IMO, the real question is how much is the natural cycle of the Earth's climate and how much is man-made.  I've seen research that the Earth is still in a warming trend from the last ice age, although man's increase in fuel consumption since the industrial revolution has somewhat increased the rate of change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 01:34:10 PM

I think a good bit of the warming is artificial.  I also think that is not certain, but probable.  And I think there is little we can do about it at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 02:39:42 PM

Simplified climate modelling. Part 1: The role of CO2 in paleoclimate | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/29/simplified-climate-modelling-part-1-the-role-of-co2-in-paleoclimate/#more-27580)

If you check this out, skip down to the comments section, it's highly entertaining.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2021, 02:10:48 PM

For those of you new to the topic, putting a wind turbine on a platform that floats is a technologically difficult exercise, but the payoff is huge in terms of rapid decarbonization. Floating platforms can be tethered to the seabed in deeper waters and/or farther from shore, which takes advantage of prime wind speeds while minimizing opposition from coastal communities.

The green hydrogen angle comes in for squeezing the most available juice possible from wind turbines. Hydrogen is a zero emission fuel that can be combusted to run turbines, or deployed in a fuel cell to generate electricity. At the present time, though, almost all of the global hydrogen supply comes from natural gas. That’s going to change because low-cost renewable energy has upended the economics of hydrogen production, making it financially feasible to “split” hydrogen gas from water with an electrical current.


https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/01/floating-wind-good-floating-wind-green-hydrogen-better/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/01/floating-wind-good-floating-wind-green-hydrogen-better/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2021, 02:11:37 PM

Tearing out these dams will open rivers up for recreation—and save lives

Environmentalists and adventurists push to remove archaic ‘drowning machines’ from the Midwest’s rivers.

https://api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/travel/article/low-head-dams-are-being-torn-out-making-rivers-accessible-for-millions (https://api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/travel/article/low-head-dams-are-being-torn-out-making-rivers-accessible-for-millions)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2021, 02:39:39 PM

“Bowling Green, Kentucky, has been the only place Corvettes have been built for more than 30 years, and they are one of our leading commercial and industrial accounts,” said Dewayne McDonald, president and CEO of Warren Rural Electric Cooperative. “So, when General Motors made a commitment to renewable power, we were happy to help make it happen.”

Many of the GM assembly plant’s nearly 1,400 employees are members of the Bowling Green-based distribution co-op. Meeting the energy needs of the 1.7 million-square-foot plant is vital to the co-op-served community. That provided ample incentive for Warren RECC to work closely with the Tennessee Valley Authority to help meet GM’s goal of going carbon-neutral by 2040.

A nearly 175-megawatt solar and storage project under development about 25 miles away from the plant has the surplus capacity to meet the automaker’s needs, and the energy produced will start flowing through the co-op’s distribution lines in 2023.


https://www.electric.coop/kentucky-co-op-solar-power-corvette-factory?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&PostID=31080150&MessageRunDetailID=5417863976 (https://www.electric.coop/kentucky-co-op-solar-power-corvette-factory?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&PostID=31080150&MessageRunDetailID=5417863976)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 05, 2021, 10:21:44 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/JM6njja.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on June 05, 2021, 06:58:02 PM

Minnesota is supposed to be a frozen hellhole, yet 97 yesterday, 99 and counting today, and 90s through the rest of the week.

There is a strong correlation between those who like blast-furnace heat and those who have never had to do anything outside in it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 05, 2021, 07:06:35 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on June 05, 2021, 06:58:02 PM

Minnesota is supposed to be a frozen hellhole, yet 97 yesterday, 99 and counting today, and 90s through the rest of the week.

There is a strong correlation between those who like blast-furnace heat and those who have never had to do anything outside in it.

Man, I'm not sure we've broken 92 yet this year.  I'm jealous!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 05, 2021, 08:15:06 PM

108 here and some recycling lot caught on fire, which is now a 6+ alarm fire.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on June 05, 2021, 08:19:24 PM

We are in revolving door spring in Ohio where every day is a gamble. Today was beautiful, warm but low humidity. Hit the pool with the kiddos, probably should have brought more sunscreen. We haven't put water in our pool yet, waiting until it is more consistently warm and dry. Pools are kind of a pain in the ass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2021, 08:38:07 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on June 05, 2021, 06:58:02 PM

Minnesota is supposed to be a frozen hellhole, yet 97 yesterday, 99 and counting today, and 90s through the rest of the week.

There is a strong correlation between those who like blast-furnace heat and those who have never had to do anything outside in it.

This is why the Midwest sucks. Winter is hell. Summer is a hot humid mosquito-dominated hell. Especially in the land of 10,000 lakes and 10,000,000,000,000 mosquitos. Spring is storms. Basically in the Midwest you get about 8 weeks of acceptable weather per year.

Never. Again. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 05, 2021, 09:34:47 PM

Ohio was pretty light on the skeeters as I recall. The ones in New England on the other hand will say hello to you as you stroll on by.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on June 05, 2021, 09:39:42 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2021, 08:38:07 PM

This is why the Midwest sucks. Winter is hell. Summer is a hot humid mosquito-dominated hell. Especially in the land of 10,000 lakes and 10,000,000,000,000 mosquitos. Spring is storms. Basically in the Midwest you get about 8 weeks of acceptable weather per year.

Never. Again.

I don't know - Cali weather is nice but boring. I do like the rainy temperate climates like Seattle and Ireland, if I was moving those would probably be the best climates for me. But otherwise, weather that doesn't give you a good storm or snow or heat is like a wife who schedules sex after an episode of Frazier. Predictable, nice, not that fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 05, 2021, 10:05:08 PM

I remember taking some Seattle folk up to Put in Bay, and they about crapped themselves when a thunderstorm rolled in. Although they get a lot of rain, they had never seen lightening before.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2021, 07:58:40 AM

I spent a week in a small town in CA on the slopes of the Sierra.  It felt like Texas, it was nice, and housing prices were reasonable.

They had frogs that jumped, and a town named something that had 22 wine tasting rooms, Bishop?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 06, 2021, 09:55:42 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on June 05, 2021, 09:39:42 PM

I don't know - Cali weather is nice but boring. I do like the rainy temperate climates like Seattle and Ireland, if I was moving those would probably be the best climates for me. But otherwise, weather that doesn't give you a good storm or snow or heat is like a wife who schedules sex after an episode of Frazier. Predictable, nice, not that fun.

As opposed to Midwestern weather...

(https://i.imgur.com/ulQyCej.png)

But hey, you're into what you're into, Sam... Whatever floats your boat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2021, 10:40:53 AM

Quote from: utee94 on June 05, 2021, 07:06:35 PM

Man, I'm not sure we've broken 92 yet this year.  I'm jealous!

my brother suggested I visit him this weekend/week to avoid the heat here in Iowa
lucky for me, I know where the shady spots are on the golf course and the beer is cold
when the heat index hits triple digits I'll drink a bud light to stay hydrated 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on June 06, 2021, 10:45:29 AM

FearlessF, I'll be playing my first round since last summer, probably sans swinging a driver.  Shoulder issues really make it hard to get a full turn.   Of course that won't keep me from swinging the 2 iron.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2021, 10:55:37 AM

good for you

I have pain in both shoulders, but I keep swinging.  Yesterday was my 40th round this season.

the alcohol helps with the pain, maybe not so much with the score card

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2021, 11:47:08 AM

"Mega-drought" depletes system that provides water to 40 million (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/mega-drought-depletes-system-that-provides-water-to-40-million/ar-AAKN8HI?ocid=msedgntp)


Big trouble here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2021, 12:09:26 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2021, 11:47:08 AM

"Mega-drought" depletes system that provides water to 40 million (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/mega-drought-depletes-system-that-provides-water-to-40-million/ar-AAKN8HI?ocid=msedgntp)


Big trouble here.

And then there's this...

For the first time ever, the federal government is expected to declare a water shortage on the lower Colorado River later this summer. That will force automatic cuts to the water supply for Nevada and Arizona starting in 2022. Homeowners have higher priority and, at first, won't feel the pain as badly as farmers.

Dan Thelander is a second-generation family farmer in Arizona's Pinal County. The water to grow his corn and alfalfa fields comes from Lake Mead. "If we don't have irrigation water, we can't farm," he said. "So, next year we are going to get about 25% less water, means we're going to have to fallow or not plant 25% of our land."

In 2023 Thelander and other farmers in this part of Arizona are expected to lose nearly all of their water from Lake Mead, so they are rushing to dig wells to pump groundwater to try to save their farms.

Who the $#^& farms corn in freaking Arizona? It's a desert, fer chrissakes!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2021, 01:04:51 PM

So, they pump out ground water for a few years ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2021, 01:16:08 PM

or rent some real corn ground in Iowa for a few years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2021, 01:38:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2021, 01:04:51 PM

So, they pump out ground water for a few years ...

It's kinda hit or miss.


(https://i.imgur.com/YVp99Xz.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2021, 07:48:39 PM

To no one's surprise, at all ...

Analysis: China’s carbon emissions grow at fastest rate for more than a decade | Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-carbon-emissions-grow-at-fastest-rate-for-more-than-a-decade)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2021, 07:52:50 PM

The IEA’s ‘Roadmap’ for Net-Zero Is Full of Dead Ends | RealClearEnergy (https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/05/25/the_ieas_roadmap_for_net-zero_is_full_of_dead_ends_778705.html)

Last year, Coilín ÓhAiseadha and Ronan Connolly, two Dublin-based researchers published an academic paper (https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4839) that found that between 2011 and 2018 global spending on solar and wind energy totaled some $2 trillion. “Despite all of this spending, wind and solar energy still produced only 3% of world energy consumption in the year 2018, while the fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas) produced 85% between them,” they wrote. “This raises pressing questions about what it would cost to make the transition to 100% renewable energies.”

ust as important as the cost problem, the IEA report completely ignores the cartoonish amounts of territory that will be needed to accommodate a major increase in wind and solar deployment. It says “Our pathway calls for scaling up solar and wind rapidly this decade, reaching annual additions of 630 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaics (PV) and 390 GW of wind by 2030, four‐times the record levels set in 2020. For solar PV, this is equivalent to installing the world’s current largest solar park roughly every day.” (Emphasis added.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 11:52:22 AM

Gates apparently can do simple math.

Bill Gates bullish on using nuclear power to fight climate change (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/bill-gates-bullish-on-using-nuclear-power-to-fight-climate-change.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2021, 12:08:22 PM

let's get the movement started

anyone know a place near them that they'd like to see a reactor built so they can save a few dollars a month on their bill and also help save the planet?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 12:12:05 PM

I really wouldn't care, but it's also not going to happen near me.  Georgia Tech had a research reactor near me for many years but it was shut down a while back.

I was amused when visiting San Diego seeing three fleet carriers in the harbor across the way, six nuclear reactors sitting a mile or so from downtown.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2021, 12:21:41 PM

I wouldn't care either, but folks 40-50 miles from me shut down a petroleum refinery, cause they didn't want the mess

many folks also don't want a meat packing plant built near them for various reasons

heck some folks don't want a cell tower or windmill put up within eyesight of their place 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2021, 12:38:12 PM

This was operating pretty darn close to me up until 2013...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Onofre_Nuclear_Generating_Station

I didn't mind. Wouldn't mind them rebuilding a new one there either. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 12:40:55 PM

Vogtle has the only two new nukes under construction right now.  The Unit 3 is supposed to power up late this year or early next.

It had "delays and cost overruns" ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2021, 11:58:07 AM

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Reaches New High Despite Pandemic Emissions Reduction | Smart News | Smithsonian Magazine (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-reaches-new-high-despite-pandemic-emissions-reduction-180977945/?fbclid=IwAR11zMUnP1qBwv4AxDvo1MBNwzskHh0JvCRP7QOoyuJG8_pkr2j5hfMpNuQ)

If "we" collectively really believed this is a massive issue, "we" would be doing a LOT more about it.

A 2019 report (https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/cut-global-emissions-76-percent-every-year-next-decade-meet-15degc) from the United Nations Environment Program says global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 7.6 percent a year from 2020 until 2030 to keep warming below the 1.5-degree-Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold identified by the Paris Agreement.

Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer tells Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press (https://apnews.com/article/business-climate-change-science-environment-and-nature-e4ec631e48aa939e3524d192c0457e62) (AP) that “the world is approaching the point where exceeding the Paris targets and entering a climate danger zone becomes almost inevitable.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 15, 2021, 12:24:22 PM

almost

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 15, 2021, 02:53:33 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 15, 2021, 12:24:22 PM

almost

(https://i.imgur.com/GvAZB5Z.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2021, 09:02:28 AM

The Sokal Affair

In 1996, physics professor Alan Sokal submitted a parody article to the journal Social Text to see if the editors would publish it just because it "sounded good" and "flattered" their views. Though Sokal disregarded their requested edits, they still published his article. In a different journal, he revealed that his piece was a hoax meant to expose the unreliable nature of non-peer reviewed publications and the bias of "the academic Left."

https://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Sokal+Affair (https://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Sokal+Affair)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2021, 12:28:14 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/p526x296/200692480_4214190808619079_5105395993231260613_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=zAumlhgaGaUAX_0pOxt&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=9d27597f4670b8181da8c8ac58c13a7b&oe=60CF8742)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2021, 02:12:45 PM

[color=var(--primary-text)]Every time voters are presented with something close to the actual costs of achieving CO2 emission targets, they say no. This explains why America’s left avoids putting carbon taxes on the ballot, writes The Editorial Board.[/font][/font][/size][/color]

(https://on.wsj.com/3vqFj37?fbclid=IwAR05ZGAo3K8upOLZ2Gg_xDLiCChFwBYfFm-9IcT1Y-fDIVk3Mnxw-0tW5Ow)[img width=680 height=354.938 alt=Opinion | Saying No to Climate Taxes]https://external-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=AQH8TGgEyO2Lto9Y&w=500&h=261&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.wsj.net%2Fim-354606%2Fsocial&cfs=1&ext=jpg&tp=1&ccb=3-5&_nc_hash=AQEw1kIKrB5qBj0A[/img]
 (https://on.wsj.com/3vqFj37?fbclid=IwAR05ZGAo3K8upOLZ2Gg_xDLiCChFwBYfFm-9IcT1Y-fDIVk3Mnxw-0tW5Ow)[/size]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 16, 2021, 03:20:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 16, 2021, 02:12:45 PM

Every time voters are presented with something close to the actual costs of achieving CO2 emission targets, they say no. This explains why America’s left avoids putting carbon taxes on the ballot, writes The Editorial Board.

I disagree. It's much more specific than that.

As I've stated, a carbon tax doesn't necessarily need to be presented as the ONLY answer to meeting targets, but as one part of the answer to meeting targets. Thus it doesn't have to be so astronomically priced as if it will reach those targets on its own.

But the reason the left doesn't want to propose carbon taxes? Because they're regressive and will hurt left voters more than right voters, and they KNOW the right [which doesn't want taxes anyway] will call them on it mercilessly.

Taxes are GREAT, when they're on "other people". When you're asking "the rich to pay their fair share", when you're essentially promising your voters that they'll get the benefit and someone else will pay the bill. Even if [as usual] the middle class is the one that'll get screwed, they can sell higher income taxes as being on "the rich" if they're very loose with what they consider rich.

You can't pull that here.

Problems with the left proposing a carbon tax:

• The political risk of it not passing at all is high, because they KNOW the right will oppose it tooth and nail.
• The political risk of proposing it is high, because the right will skewer them as it being a regressive tax that is borne by the poor and middle class--which it is.
• The political risk of it passing is high, because it will be a VERY visible tax that will raise prices, and they will be blamed for it--by their own constituents.
• Because they can't sell it as offset by a reduction in something else regressive like the payroll tax (which I've suggested) because then the right will accuse them of defunding social security or something like it, and their commitment to social security and medicare is FAR more important to their electoral success than a carbon tax.

Reasons the right won't propose or go along with a carbon tax:

• Because they don't want to in the first place.

Typical politics. Good policy IMHO, but it will never happen because the political calculus makes it full of peril for the side that would want it most.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 16, 2021, 03:42:17 PM

I have two reasons not to support a carbon tax

1 No confidence the funds collected would be put to any use beneficial to the environment

2 The US would be basically alone with little chance for it to make any difference

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2021, 03:57:29 PM

funds laundered by government?

I'm never a fan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 16, 2021, 04:05:32 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 16, 2021, 03:42:17 PM

I have two reasons not to support a carbon tax

1 No confidence the funds collected would be put to any use beneficial to the environment

2 The US would be basically alone with little chance for it to make any difference

The mere existence of the tax should reduce CO2 output. That is its purpose... It's a Pigovian tax--adding extra cost to an activity (pollution) where the negative externalities aren't currently captured in the market cost of the activity. 

What the revenues are spent on are irrelevant--which is why I suggested offsetting the revenue gained with cuts to the payroll tax, another regressive tax. You could simply route the revenues to the social security trust fund and it's a wash. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 16, 2021, 04:14:48 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 16, 2021, 04:05:32 PM

The mere existence of the tax should reduce CO2 output. That is its purpose... It's a Pigovian tax--adding extra cost to an activity (pollution) where the negative externalities aren't currently captured in the market cost of the activity.

What the revenues are spent on are irrelevant--which is why I suggested offsetting the revenue gained with cuts to the payroll tax, another regressive tax. You could simply route the revenues to the social security trust fund and it's a wash.

I dont agree at all

If the folks who are screwing up the environment arent going to help pay for its improvement I see no reason for the tax

and there is no way there would ever be an offset in other taxes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2021, 04:24:27 PM

yup, just another corporate tax to be mismanaged and wasted by politicians

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 16, 2021, 04:27:25 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 16, 2021, 04:14:48 PM

I dont agree at all

If the folks who are screwing up the environment arent going to help pay for its improvement I see no reason for the tax

and there is no way there would ever be an offset in other taxes

The point is that the tax is a punishment for emitting CO2. If they don't want to pay it, they should reduce their CO2 emissions. 

The source of personal and corporate income taxes have no relationship to what that revenue is spent on. Why should it? Should we only fund the military with the income taxes from soldiers and corporate taxes from defense contractors? Of course not. Money is fungible. 

Now, I agree with you that they won't offset other taxes. The left doesn't want that; they want more taxes, and the regressive taxes that it would make sense to offset are their pet programs, so they would never offer. The right would love that, but they'd rather have it be offset by a reduction in capital gains or marginal tax rates because that's more important to their constituents. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2021, 07:32:49 PM

Well, put'em on the ballot and see what happens.  We saw what happened in Switzerland.

Don't tax you, don't tax me, tax that feller up under the tree.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 16, 2021, 08:52:15 PM

According to this guy Biden wants to cut green houses gases by at least 50% by maybe 2030.And China building scores of coal fired plants for themselves and many 3rd world countries .He's spot on


https://youtu.be/LzSAEQjqlns?t=75

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2021, 01:53:19 PM

It's facile to commit to "cutting emissions 50% by 2030".  And utterly pointless.  Do, or do not.

Show me a plan.  How are you going to get there?  (You're not.)

Obama to Go to Copenhagen With Emissions Target - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/26/us/politics/26climate.html)

Obama made similar promises, and whatever happened would have happened without promises (mostly the shift away from coal to NG).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2021, 11:11:56 AM

Has anyone noticed a Congressional proposal of late to deal with climate change?  I know some of the infrastructure bill supposedly has something in it, but I'm not sure what.  If this indeed is our biggest problem, should it not have specific legislation proposed to combat it?

(I don't mean the Green New Deal, that was a toothless "resolution" that meant nothing.)

What should government be doing here?  Carbon tax?  Subsidies for wind and solar?  Something else?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 18, 2021, 12:04:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 18, 2021, 11:11:56 AM

Has anyone noticed a Congressional proposal of late to deal with climate change?  I know some of the infrastructure bill supposedly has something in it, but I'm not sure what.  If this indeed is our biggest problem, should it not have specific legislation proposed to combat it?

(I don't mean the Green New Deal, that was a toothless "resolution" that meant nothing.)

What should government be doing here?  Carbon tax?  Subsidies for wind and solar?  Something else?

No and the reason is the majority of their constituents dont think climate change is our highest security threat or for that matter our worst problem

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2021, 12:10:11 PM

If I truly believed it was our greatest challenge, OK fine, got it, start with that premise, I'd expect those in Congress who share that belief to put this as their NUMBER ONE priority.  The verbiage is fine, I guess, but I look at the actions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2021, 03:04:47 PM

That's not how this works. You don't ONLY address the most significant priority on the list. Otherwise you'd only ever get one thing done at a time. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2021, 03:16:18 PM

In my own personal life, I focus on the most significant thing or problem.  I try and do another couple often as not.

My goal is to do one thing a day.  Sometimes I manage two.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 18, 2021, 04:03:46 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2021, 03:04:47 PM

That's not how this works. You don't ONLY address the most significant priority on the list. Otherwise you'd only ever get one thing done at a time.

Its not like concern over climate change is 1st or 2nd or even 3rd on the list of concerns

its not even in the top 10 for most voters unlike what the media would have you believe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2021, 04:10:41 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2021, 03:04:47 PM

That's not how this works. You don't ONLY address the most significant priority on the list. Otherwise you'd only ever get one thing done at a time.

Sure, but conversely, you also can't list something as the #1 priority, and then take no meaningful action to address it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on June 19, 2021, 07:05:04 AM

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/subjects/climate_change_and_greenhouse_gases/6040

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2021, 08:53:48 AM

If this were in fact their NUMBER ONE priority, it would be front and center on their agenda, not buried in fine print.

I think the truth is they don't know what to attempt to do other than throw money at it.

At least a proposed carbon tax would be a something concrete and specific, how well it worked could be subject to discussion.  But, it's unpopular of course.  Canada has one, it's insufficient and not really doing much of course, but they have one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2021, 11:08:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2021, 08:53:48 AM

If this were in fact their NUMBER ONE priority, it would be front and center on their agenda, not buried in fine print.

I think the truth is they don't know what to attempt to do other than throw money at it.

At least a proposed carbon tax would be a something concrete and specific, how well it worked could be subject to discussion.  But, it's unpopular of course.  Canada has one, it's insufficient and not really doing much of course, but they have one.

Not to worry they will get around to taxing over climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2021, 11:16:22 AM

I still opine if indeed it is our top most pressing need, they wouldn't be "getting around to it".

Some list of "climate bills" including something about cleaning SF bay isn't very impressive to me.  I won't even bother asking how any of those bills would contribute much to avoiding climate change, it's obvious they won't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on June 19, 2021, 11:58:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2021, 11:16:22 AM

I still opine if indeed it is our top most pressing need, they wouldn't be "getting around to it".

Some list of "climate bills" including something about cleaning SF bay isn't very impressive to me.  I won't even bother asking how any of those bills would contribute much to avoiding climate change, it's obvious they won't.

Well, it's a political issue. Call your local congressman.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on June 19, 2021, 01:01:11 PM

I have to admit, I don't mind it when we have stormy wet days when the US Open is on.  Always feel guilty hunkering down to watch golf in mid June.  Very wicked storks blowing through IN yesterday and today.

Nice to get some prime time golf too.   Was humbled on this Torrey Pines front nine when I played it.  Scored well on the back.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 22, 2021, 10:50:12 PM

This guy seems to put it rather directly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y564PsKvNZs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on June 23, 2021, 08:04:22 AM

Climate change is a hoax.

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/05/20/unsettled_what_climate_science_tells_us_what_it_doesnt_and_why_it_matters_by_steven_e_koonin_778065.html (https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/05/20/unsettled_what_climate_science_tells_us_what_it_doesnt_and_why_it_matters_by_steven_e_koonin_778065.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:22:51 AM

The dude in the video is saying what I've been saying.  

Using kids to espouse some technical topic is twaddle.

Ha, he's talking about having goals but no plans.  Ha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 09:41:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:22:51 AM

The dude in the video is saying what I've been saying. 

Using kids to espouse some technical topic is twaddle.

Ha, he's talking about having goals but no plans.  Ha.

I liked his point of not having a way of evaluating todays actions makes fighting climate change harder to deal with

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:53:41 AM

Well, we can measure CO2 levels precisely, I'm confident of that.  We can estimate CO2 production by country with decent precision.  So, minimally we could tell if CO2 generation is starting to drop (it isn't, and won't).

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

ANYTHING the US proposes would amount to at most a tenth of a degree C by 2050, at most, if the models are correct.  We can't measure that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 11:30:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:53:41 AM

Well, we can measure CO2 levels precisely, I'm confident of that.  We can estimate CO2 production by country with decent precision.  So, minimally we could tell if CO2 generation is starting to drop (it isn't, and won't).

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

ANYTHING the US proposes would amount to at most a tenth of a degree C by 2050, at most, if the models are correct.  We can't measure that.

Yes we know where we are now but to evaluate the effect of any changes in how we do things we have to compare it to models of future emissions

The farther out these models go the more uncertain these models are

because of this we are not able to evaluate the real effect of any changes we do now to what we predict in the future

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 11:57:35 AM

We could tell only that CO2 levels had stabilized, if they did.  (They won't.)

The connection between that KNOWN and changes in global temperature are rather less certain, with a large element of doubt, as noted, the further one goes out.  These models are amazingly complex, I've looked at them, many terms, many coefficients, some of which are with exponents, and the only way to contrive them is to try and ensure they "back predict" what we think has happened to date.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 12:57:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 11:57:35 AM

We could tell only that CO2 levels had stabilized, if they did.  (They won't.)

The connection between that KNOWN and changes in global temperature are rather less certain, with a large element of doubt, as noted, the further one goes out.  These models are amazingly complex, I've looked at them, many terms, many coefficients, some of which are with exponents, and the only way to contrive them is to try and ensure they "back predict" what we think has happened to date.

This planet is 4.5 billion years old

good luck with that

its amazing that earth has managed to warm up and cool down many many times before man existed

how in the world did earth manage this without man's help

and what ever forces were at work in nature to cause climate change prior to man has just taken a holiday and is leaving it up to man to carry on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 01:16:53 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 12:57:33 PM

This planet is 4.5 billion years old

and measurements and record keeping have been decent for maybe the past 200 years???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2021, 01:18:09 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 01:16:53 PM

and measurements and record keeping have been decent for maybe the past 200 years???

80 years at best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 02:19:22 PM

Ths issue is not about natural variability, which is known and real.  The issue is about how humans may be forcing it into something that otherwise would not be happening, how bad that could be, and what if anything we can do about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 02:43:04 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 02:19:22 PM

Ths issue is not about natural variability, which is known and real.  The issue is about how humans may be forcing it into something that otherwise would not be happening, how bad that could be, and what if anything we can do about it.

and since we really dont know what natural variability truly is we can not possibly know how much man is causing climate change

all we know is there is increased co2 much of this increase might be due to man but what we dont know is what might also be causing climate change and to what extent this change is normal for earth

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 02:55:47 PM

I think we have decent records of natural variability, things like tree rings and the like.  We know about Malinkovitch cycles.  We think sun spots may play a role as yet not understood, at times, but that one is a bit dicey.  I think we're pretty confident there was a cooling preriod 1550-1850 at least in the northern hemisphere, and a warming period around 1,000 AD.  We know about the various ice ages.

Folks who study this for a living claim the planet is heating up faster than it would "normally", and we know CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and we know its levels are going higher.

I'm not so confident in the various models, in part because there are too many of them.  The could be about right though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 03:01:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 02:55:47 PM

I think we have decent records of natural variability, things like tree rings and the like.  We know about Malinkovitch cycles.  We think sun spots may play a role as yet not understood, at times, but that one is a bit dicey.  I think we're pretty confident there was a cooling preriod 1550-1850 at least in the northern hemisphere, and a warming period around 1,000 AD.  We know about the various ice ages.

Folks who study this for a living claim the planet is heating up faster than it would "normally", and we know CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and we know its levels are going higher.

I'm not so confident in the various models, in part because there are too many of them.  The could be about right though.

cooling period 1550 to 1850 covers 500 years so only a little less the 4.5 billion years left to figure out

folks claiming this planet is experiencing anything out of normal could not possibly know that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2021, 04:00:35 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 03:01:16 PM

cooling period 1550 to 1850 covers 500 years so only a little less the 4.5 billion years left to figure out

folks claiming this planet is experiencing anything out of normal could not possibly know that

The only real time we need to know about is the roughly 10K years under which human civilization flourished.

We're not going to hurt the planet in any appreciable manner. It's seen way worse than us. 

The question is whether we destabilize the climate to the extent that we can no longer sustain the agriculture necessary to feed >7.5B people. The question is whether economic and social dislocation due to climate change will spur wars and unrest. 

The planet doesn't give a %&#^ about us. We're a bad rash to the Earth, not an existential threat. But we care if it will continue to support our way of life. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 04:34:45 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2021, 04:00:35 PM

The only real time we need to know about is the roughly 10K years under which human civilization flourished.

We're not going to hurt the planet in any appreciable manner. It's seen way worse than us.

The question is whether we destabilize the climate to the extent that we can no longer sustain the agriculture necessary to feed >7.5B people. The question is whether economic and social dislocation due to climate change will spur wars and unrest.

The planet doesn't give a %&#^ about us. We're a bad rash to the Earth, not an existential threat. But we care if it will continue to support our way of life.

you are acting like its up to man and I dont think it is

the bold up above reflects my point exactly

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2021, 04:50:24 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 23, 2021, 04:34:45 PM

you are acting like its up to man and I dont think it is

the bold up above reflects my point exactly

If you're saying that man's activity can't really make much of a dent in the climate, then I understand where you're coming from. If that's the case, then it really doesn't matter if we emit CO2 or not.

I don't believe that's the case, but I understand that argument.

However what I'm responding to is your point about what is "normal" for the Earth in a 4.5B year life. 

What is normal for the Earth isn't important to us. Whether the Earth is capable of sustaining us is. 

In Earth's "normal" history we've seen five mass extinctions: https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinctions/

That's within the realm of "normal" for the Earth. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on June 23, 2021, 05:01:21 PM

Man, some real doozies of forecasts in parts of the West

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2021, 05:29:50 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2021, 04:50:24 PM

If you're saying that man's activity can't really make much of a dent in the climate, then I understand where you're coming from. If that's the case, then it really doesn't matter if we emit CO2 or not.

I don't believe that's the case, but I understand that argument.

However what I'm responding to is your point about what is "normal" for the Earth in a 4.5B year life.

What is normal for the Earth isn't important to us. Whether the Earth is capable of sustaining us is.

In Earth's "normal" history we've seen five mass extinctions: https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinctions/

That's within the realm of "normal" for the Earth.

Need more fresh water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 05:32:10 PM

If we built more dams, viola, more fresh water ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2021, 05:41:55 PM

Wrong. Diversion is the correct answer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 23, 2021, 06:01:23 PM

I just spent about an hour watching a docu on colony collapse of Honey Bees. Between the EPA whorering themselves out and morally bankrupt asswipes like Monsanto it's amazing we're still here fortunately they are starting to get pushback.To watch have to go to YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4ddWBEHlpo&t=261s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 06:08:12 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2021, 05:41:55 PM

Wrong. Diversion is the correct answer.

Yeah, what I said, you build a dam and divert the river into a lake.  Simple.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 06:11:11 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2021, 05:29:50 PM

Need more fresh water.

in the desert 
Big 10 country has plenty

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 23, 2021, 06:19:20 PM

This is a horrible place the Great Lakes region there are just 3 seasons winter/summer/orange barrel the beer sux,the taxes high women the size of combines and the winds from Canada won't let you keep the smoker lit.And if the didn't get you kidneys in Austin they sure as hell will here,prolly your liver too.The Winters are long and you'll need the sustenance

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 07:07:59 PM

GM and Liebherr-Aerospace, an on-board aircraft system supplier, have partnered to develop ways to use hydrogen fuel cell power generation on an aircraft.

Yes, that means one day hydrogen fuel cells could propel a commercial jet.

But before that happens, the technology could do a lot more to save on jet fuel, emissions and other inefficiencies that currently exist on airplanes, said GM Executive Director of Global Hydrotec Charlie Freese.


"The fuel cell can bring in the air you’re flying through, then we take hydrogen, which is stored on board, and combine it to make power and electricity; we can even make heat," Freese told the Free Press.

It can also make water, leading to a huge fuel and emissions savings.

"A fuel cell is clean and the water product can be used to humidify the airplane or we can capture it and use it to flush toilets and sinks," Freese said. "The average aircraft takes off with two tons of water just to flush the toilet. We can now make water in flight.”


https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2021/06/17/gm-hydrogen-fuel-cell-technology/7732216002/ (https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2021/06/17/gm-hydrogen-fuel-cell-technology/7732216002/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2021, 07:55:49 AM

You can also burn the hydrogen directly in a modified turbine, I don't know which would be more efficient.  As for making water from air, it can be done, but I'd be curious about the figures.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2021, 09:43:03 AM

two tons of water is quite a bit, big fuel cells needed running hard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2021, 09:49:03 AM

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/18/switching-from-coal-to-batteries-at-power-plant-in-maryland/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/18/switching-from-coal-to-batteries-at-power-plant-in-maryland/)

Talen is working with battery developer Key Capture Energy to build the 20 MW system as a proof of concept demonstration. Its relatively small size allows for a streamlined approval process but it will act just like any other commercial power plant, bidding into PJM’s markets for capacity, ancillary services, and energy arbitrage.

Muller says there are several advantages to installing battery storage at older power plants. For instance, the sites have already been cleared to export a certain amount of power to the grid, so no expensive network upgrades are needed. “If the system can handle 100 megawatts of coal, it can handle 100 megawatts of battery output,” Muller says.

Also, most coal facilities have plenty of space available for installing batteries with plenty left over for building solar farms nearby. That means no money is needed to purchase land to make the transition to renewable energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2021, 10:01:43 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2021, 05:29:50 PM

Need more fresh water.

Speaking of bad news re: water...


https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/23/where-did-sierra-snow-go-this-spring-not-into-california-rivers-and-water-supplies/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:09:13 AM

Nuclear power, the largest source of carbon-free electricity generation today, should continue to be a pillar in the energy transition to a carbon-free future and in helping countries achieve energy security, GE says in a newly published 'positioning paper'. It says two parallel paths are needed: maximizing the lifetime output of the existing installed fleet and building new nuclear plants with best-in-class technology.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/GE-outlines-nuclear-s-role-as-a-pillar-of-a-low-ca (https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/GE-outlines-nuclear-s-role-as-a-pillar-of-a-low-ca)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 10:14:11 AM

Nuclear would be fine, but there are no serious plans to build any more in the US today (two are UC).  Unless "we" change the rules on licensure etc., another nuke here would be decades off.  Not really much help.

If there is a practicable "solution" here, it has to include nuclear for base load.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:28:23 AM

decades off would be better than going all in on wind and solar

IMO

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 25, 2021, 10:32:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:28:23 AM

decades off would be better than going all in on wind and solar

IMO

Hey, speaking of weather, could you please call off the storms in Nebraska and let's get some baseball games in?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 12:16:55 PM

We could actually build nuclear plants fairly quickly, but we'd have to streamline licensing of course and probably focus on one design.  When we build say 737s, they are all the same (for a while, then they build 737-200s etc.).  If we had a standardized power reactor design, it's a matter of duplication.  Once you sort out siting and funding, the rest should be easy (relatively).

It already produces 20% of our electricity with about 100 power reactors, we "COULD" double that in a decade with some significant effort.  That would at least replace coal, our dirtiest fuel.  We'd still have NG emissions, but it's a lot better than coal.  I could get behind that plan, but it's obviously not practicable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2021, 12:30:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 06:08:12 PM

Yeah, what I said, you build a dam and divert the river into a lake.  Simple.

There are many other ways to divert water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 01:03:11 PM

Yeah, but I like dams.  They are cool.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 25, 2021, 01:29:10 PM

badgerfan hates beaver







dams

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2021, 01:55:59 PM

And Beavers.

(https://i.imgur.com/oAZpJ05.png)

Mr. Ryan DeVries
2088 Dagget
Pierson, MI 49339

Dear Mr. DeVries:

SUBJECT: DEQ File No. 97-59-0023-1 T11N, R10W, Sec. 20, Montcalm Count-,),

It has come to the attention of the Department of Environmental Quality that there has been recent unauthorized activity on the above referenced parcel of property.  You have been certified as the legal landowner and/or contractor who did the following unauthorized activity: Construction and maintenance of two wood debris dams across the outlet stream of Spring Pond.

A permit must be issued prior to the start of this type of activity.  A review of the Department's files show that no permits have been issued.  Therefore, the Department has determined that this activity is in violation of Part 301,.  Inland Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and Environmental Protection Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of the Michigan Compiled Laws annotated.

The Department has been informed that one or both of the dams partially, failed during a recent rain event, causing debris dams and flooding at downstream locations.  We find that dams of this nature are inherently hazardous and cannot be permitted.  The Department therefore orders you to cease and desist all unauthorized activities at this location, and to restore the stream to a free-flow condition by removing all wood and brush forming the dams from the strewn channel.  All restoration work shall be completed no later than January 31, 1998.  Please notify this office when the restoration has been completed so that a follow-up site inspection may be scheduled by our staff.

Failure to comply with this request, or any further unauthorized activity on the site, may result in this case being referred for elevated enforcement action.

We anticipate and would appreciate your full cooperation in this matter.  Please feel free to contact me at this office if you have any questions.
 
Sincerely,
David L. Price
District Representative
Land and Water Management Division
616-356-0269

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2021, 01:58:22 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/fKBYi9K.png)

Dear Mr. Price:

Re: DEQ File No. 97-59-0023; T11N, R10W, Sec 20; Montcalm County

Your certified letter dated 12/17/97 has been handed to me to respond to.  You sent out a great deal of carbon copies to a lot of people, but you neglected to include their addresses.  You will, therefore, have to send them a copy of my response.

First of all, Mr. Ryan DeVries is not the legal landowner and/or contractor at 2088 Dagget, Pierson, Michigan - I am the legal owner and a couple of beavers are in the (State unauthorized) process of constructing and maintaining two wood "debris" dams across the outlet stream of my Spring Pond.  While I did not pay for, nor authorize their dam project, I think they would be highly offended you call their skillful use of natural building materials "debris".  I would like to challenge you to attempt to emulate their dam project any dam time and/or any dam place you choose.  I believe I can safely state there is no dam way you could ever match their dam skills, their dam resourcefulness, their dam ingenuity, their dam persistence, their dam determination and/or their dam work ethic.

As to your dam request the beavers first must fill out a dam permit prior to the start of this type of dam activity, my first dam question to you is: are you trying to discriminate against my Spring Pond  Beavers or do you require all dam beavers throughout this State to conform to said dam request?  If you are not discriminating against these particular beavers, please send me completed copies of all those other applicable beaver dam permits.  Perhaps we will see if there really is a dam violation of Part 301, Inland Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and Environmental Protection Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of the Michigan Compiled Laws annotated.  My first concern is - aren't the dam beavers entitled to dam legal representation?  The Spring Pond Beavers are financially destitute and are unable to pay for said dam representation - so the State will have to provide them with a dam lawyer.

The Department's dam concern that either one or both of the dams failed during a recent rain event causing dam flooding is proof we should leave the dam Spring Pond Beavers alone rather than harassing them and calling their dam names.  If you want the dam stream "restored" to a dam free-flow condition - contact the dam beavers - but if you are going to arrest them (they obviously did not pay any dam attention to your dam letter -- being unable to read English) - be sure you read them their dam Miranda first.  As for me, I am not going to cause more dam flooding or dam debris jams by interfering with these dam builders.  If you want to hurt these dam beavers - be aware I am sending a copy of your dam letter and this response to PETA.  If your dam Department seriously finds all dams of this nature inherently hazardous and truly will not permit their existence in this dam State - I seriously hope you are not selectively enforcing this dam policy - or once again both I and the Spring Pond Beavers will scream prejudice!

In my humble opinion, the Spring Pond Beavers have a right to build their dam unauthorized dams as long as the sky is blue, the grass is green and water flows downstream.  They have more dam right than I to live and enjoy Spring Pond.  So, as far as I and the beavers are concerned, this dam case can be referred for more dam elevated enforcement action now.  Why wait until 1/31/98?  The Spring Pond Beavers may be under the dam ice then, and there will be no dam way for you or your dam staff to contact/harass them then.

In conclusion, I would like to bring to your attention a real environmental quality (health) problem; bears are actually defecating in our woods.  I definitely believe you should be persecuting the defecating bears and leave the dam beavers alone.   If you are going to investigate the beaver dam, watch your step!  (The bears are not careful where they dump!)


Being unable to comply with your dam request, and being unable to contact you on your dam answering machine, I am sending this response to your dam office.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 28, 2021, 07:22:52 PM

110-115F across the Pacific Northwest all week, which is insane. The construction sites I work off and on throughout the year in Portland is shutting down until next week.

https://twitter.com/ColleenWeather/status/1409598532617707520

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on June 28, 2021, 07:42:00 PM

High of 114 in Portland today. Woof.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 28, 2021, 08:05:57 PM

But it's a wet heat... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2021, 09:17:31 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on June 28, 2021, 07:42:00 PM

High of 114 in Portland today. Woof.

Briskett weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2021, 09:17:54 AM

https://youtu.be/WPpgyjjxbvE

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2021, 09:22:40 AM

The waste issue is a problem for wind turbine blades as well.  The stuff will get dumped, we really do have the room for it.  Remember all the scare about land fills filling up with diapers ca. 1990?  Complete nonsense, a fabricated issue, one that got me into a specific project that I realized was garbage, just PR.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2021, 09:49:17 AM

GE Renewable Energy is collaborating with European partners neowa and LafargeHolcim to advance wind turbine recycling and reuse as part of broader efforts to contribute to the European Commission’s (EC) circular economy action plan.

As governments and corporations aim to achieve their net zero targets, wind turbines are expected to grow significantly in the decades ahead. According to the Global Wind Energy Council, 2020 added 93 GW of new capacity installed – a 53% year-on-year increase – but that is not nearly enough to meet renewable energy targets.

GE’s European recycling partnerships focus on wind blades specifically – most other components of wind turbines are fully recyclable, containing primarily steel and copper. The blades, however, are made from materials such as fiberglass and are difficult to recycle so the blades often wind up in landfill.

The EC circularity plan, adopted in March of last year, focuses on how products are designed, promotes circular economy processes, encourages sustainable consumption, and aims to ensure that waste is prevented and the resources used are kept in the EU economy for as long as possible. Measures under the plan include:

Make sustainable products the norm in the EU.
Empower consumers and public buyers.
Focus on the sectors that use most resources and where the potential for circularity is high such as: electronics and ICT, batteries and vehicles, packaging, plastics, textiles, construction and buildings, food, water and nutrients.
Ensure less waste.
Make circularity work for people, regions and cities.
Lead global efforts on a circular economy.
GE’s multi-year agreement with neowa to dismantle and remove decommissioned turbines will recycle up to 90% of the turbines. Additionally, neowa’s proprietary process to shred turbine blades will create a feedstock for cement production.


https://www.environmentalleader.com/2021/06/ge-advances-wind-turbine-blade-recycling-with-european-partnerships/ (https://www.environmentalleader.com/2021/06/ge-advances-wind-turbine-blade-recycling-with-european-partnerships/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 02, 2021, 09:03:27 PM

https://twitter.com/TonyGerdeman/status/1411090857495834625?s=19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 03, 2021, 08:26:41 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 02, 2021, 09:03:27 PM

https://twitter.com/TonyGerdeman/status/1411090857495834625?s=19

A little more context that many of the people in that tweet thread should know.

Yes, this is in the Gulf of Mexico, West of the Yucatan Peninsula, in Mexican waters, in a pipeline operated by a Mexican company.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2021, 08:44:06 AM

we can still blame the evil oil companies for ruining the earth

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 03, 2021, 09:12:15 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 03, 2021, 08:44:06 AM

we can still blame the evil oil companies for ruining the earth

Trump's fault

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2021, 09:15:54 AM

Bush and Bush Jr.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 10:36:05 AM

Every energy source known has upsides and downs.  Maybe fusion is one with the best balance, save for the fact it's the "energy of the future, and always will be".

It makes sense, to me, to have a range of sources.  We certainly need a base power source, something reliable that cranks out steady power day after day.  And then we need "peaker" sources that can fill in when demand surges.

As we transition to EVs, we're going to need more of the former from somewhere.  I have read the increase may be 20-30% more power needed, from somewhere, much of it at night fortunately.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 10:47:10 AM

Net Zero by 2050 – Analysis - IEA (https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050)

Another somewhat interesting "plan", which has no enablement or concrete assessment of what can happen in any real terms.

It does outline what has to happen, to read net zero, and those steps of course are pretty crazy to view realistically on a global basis.  And there is not dollar cost attached of course, it's all handwaving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2021, 11:19:46 AM

Here again no mention of specific countries such as China whose buy in is necessary for any real improvement

wake me when that happens and I'll be much more attentive to proposed plans

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 11:23:37 AM

This isn't any kind of plan, it's an outline of what has to happen to get to net zero.  I has no enablement, no discussion of cost, no discussion of China of course, it's just a wish list.  And it's clearly not going to happen, I don't think anyone seriously believes it will, at all.  The various "pledges" are not nearly enough and few countries will fulfill them anyway.

Throw money at the problem ... this lead in below is a simple lie.

The number of countries announcing pledges to achieve net-zero emissions over the coming decades continues to grow. But the pledges by governments to date – even if fully achieved – fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050 and give the world an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C.


This special report is the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth. It sets out a cost-effective and economically productive pathway, resulting in a clean, dynamic and resilient energy economy dominated by renewables like solar and wind instead of fossil fuels. The report also examines key uncertainties, such as the roles of bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes in reaching net zero.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 11:30:02 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Gvja7UM.png)



The might as well summarize their "plan" as this, "Well folks, this isn't going to happen, so we probably should start thinking differently."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 11:31:37 AM

Despite Pledges to Cut Emissions, China Goes on a Coal Spree - Yale E360 (https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree)

A total of 247 gigawatts of coal power (https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/China-Dominates-2020-Coal-Development.pdf) is now in planning or development, nearly six times Germany’s entire coal-fired capacity. China has also proposed additional new coal plants that, if built, would generate 73.5 gigawatts of power, more than five times the 13.9 gigawatts proposed in the rest of the world combined. Last year, Chinese provinces granted construction approval to 47 gigawatts of coal power projects, more than three times the capacity permitted in 2019.

China has pledged that its emissions will peak around 2030, but that high-water mark would still mean that the country is generating huge quantities CO2 — 12.9 billion to 14.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually for the next decade, or as much as 15 percent per year above 2015 levels, according to a Climate Action Tracker analysis (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 11:37:18 AM

I chuckled ...

Making net-zero emissions a reality hinges on a singular, unwavering focus from all governments – working together with one another, and with businesses, investors and citizens. All stakeholders need to play their part. The wide-ranging measures adopted by governments at all levels in the net zero pathway help to frame, influence and incentivise the purchase by consumers and investment by businesses. This includes how energy companies invest in new ways of producing and supplying energy services, how businesses invest in equipment, and how consumers cool and heat their homes, power their devices and travel.
Underpinning all these changes are policy decisions made by governments. Devising cost-effective national and regional net zero roadmaps demands co-operation among all parts of government that breaks down silos and integrates energy into every country’s policy making on finance, labour, taxation, transport and industry. Energy or environment ministries alone cannot carry out the policy actions needed to reach net zero by 2050.
Changes in energy consumption result in a significant decline in fossil fuel tax revenues. In many countries today, taxes on diesel, gasoline and other fossil fuel consumption are an important source of public revenues, providing as much as 10% in some cases. In the net zero pathway, tax revenue from oil and gas retail sales falls by about 40% between 2020 and 2030. Managing this decline will require long-term fiscal planning and budget reforms.
The net zero pathway relies on unprecedented international co-operation among governments, especially on innovation and investment. The IEA stands ready to support governments in preparing national and regional net zero roadmaps, to provide guidance and assistance in implementing them, and to promote international co-operation to accelerate the energy transition worldwide. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2021, 12:44:38 PM

and I agree with everything you just posted which is why fixing global warming gets a big yawn from me


until we get a majority global participation we need to concentrate on what benefits America

Strong military

strong labor market

stop the huge migration currently being allowed of illegal migrants

infrastructure investments

energy independence 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2021, 03:19:59 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/qHDVb0z.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 05, 2021, 03:23:47 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2021, 03:19:59 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/qHDVb0z.jpg)

Have you traversed the Bermuda triangle yet? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2021, 03:42:23 PM

Only on a cruise ship, several times.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2021, 05:21:17 AM

Elsa was not too bad for us. Didn't lose power (yet??), which is good because our Generac won't be here for another 6 weeks.

About 8" of rain so far. Jeez. The pool is full, and overflowing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2021, 06:13:12 AM

Water can cause a lot of damage obviously aside from wind, which most folks seem to worry about more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 11:41:44 AM

Nuclear Energy Will Not Be the Solution to Climate Change | Foreign Affairs (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2021-07-08/nuclear-energy-will-not-be-solution-climate-change?utm_campaign=fb_daily_soc&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_posts&fbclid=IwAR1sjODUTVWKQpxuFN8LWmbWv4wEHb46oKpkk1ROkNFAfmYpYc9xXhfeRwI)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 06:15:27 PM

Debunking 25 arguments against climate change in 5 sentences or less (each) | The Logic of Science (https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/10/18/debunking-25-arguments-against-climate-change-in-5-sentences-or-less-each/?fbclid=IwAR1NQAZkA4jNwxfXaydRLjmautyrNCZpQ7tcMryMs_GcqZ2D-SlIWBsD8bs)

Concise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2021, 06:30:15 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 06:15:27 PM

Debunking 25 arguments against climate change in 5 sentences or less (each) | The Logic of Science (https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/10/18/debunking-25-arguments-against-climate-change-in-5-sentences-or-less-each/?fbclid=IwAR1NQAZkA4jNwxfXaydRLjmautyrNCZpQ7tcMryMs_GcqZ2D-SlIWBsD8bs)

Concise.

Its amazing the author was alive 14 million years ago to measure the co2 level

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2021, 07:13:15 AM

Measuring aspects of paleoclimates like CO2 levels is a challenge, but various techniques are used, and when they largely agree, I think the data are reliable.

Not certain of course, all the techniques could have unknown flaws.

Simplified climate modelling. Part 1: The role of CO2 in paleoclimate | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/29/simplified-climate-modelling-part-1-the-role-of-co2-in-paleoclimate/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on July 11, 2021, 01:52:17 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2021, 12:44:38 PM

and I agree with everything you just posted which is why fixing global warming gets a big yawn from me


until we get a majority global participation we need to concentrate on what benefits America

1. Strong military

2. strong labor market

3. stop the huge migration currently being allowed of illegal migrants

4. infrastructure investments

5. energy independence

Fortunately we have 1, 2, and 5 accomplished.  As for 3, it is a matter of opinion. In Iowa we need farm workers to work livestock farms. Iowans who do not own farms generally do not want to work on farms for $14 per hour. So, we don't have the workers, and farm owners will occasionally get charged with crimes for hiring migrants. We can get workers through legal or illegal means. If we want to do it legally we need to expand legal immigration. But, there is too little support for legal immigration in Congress.

There is a lot of support for allowing migrants to cross the border so some politicians and media opinion shows benefit from making border protection an issue.

We are sorely lacking in infrastructure investments. As an Iowan that grew up on the Mississippi River, I know we need to expand the locks, and improve or replace the dams. They were built in the 1930s with a 50-year projected life. They are about 35-years past their projected lifespan. Modern tows take about 2.5 hours to go through locks on the northern 29 locks of the Mississippi. (There are no locks south of St. Louis). Our locks are 600 feet length and in modern terms should be 1,200 feet. Congress won't allocate the funds to improve our Midwestern efficiency in shipping commodities worldwide. 

We are not the dumbest country in the world, obviously, but in some respects we are approaching such astounding inefficiency as to be stupid. Consider the potential for safety problems on our river systems from not modernizing 90-year old infrastructure.

Let's not tax billionaires to pay for what they need from infrastructure to maintain their class status - it is wrong. Tax the middle class, or future generations. It is economically inefficient to tax those who benefit the most from infrastructure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2021, 08:53:56 AM

It's very difficult to tax  the wealthy, especially billionaires, effectively.  A lot of countries have tried it, and failed, and reversed policies.

My definition of wealthy is anyone who does not need income.  If you tax income at too high a rate, I would simply go to municipal bonds, or simply borrow off assets.  Or, just live on post-tax assets.

A wealthy person doesn't need to pay taxes, and won't, if you make them too high.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2021, 08:59:25 AM

Quote from: Hawkinole on July 11, 2021, 01:52:17 AM

Fortunately we have 1, 2, and 5 accomplished.  As for 3, it is a matter of opinion. In Iowa we need farm workers to work livestock farms. Iowans who do not own farms generally do not want to work on farms for $14 per hour. So, we don't have the workers, and farm owners will occasionally get charged with crimes for hiring migrants. We can get workers through legal or illegal means. If we want to do it legally we need to expand legal immigration. But, there is too little support for legal immigration in Congress.

There is a lot of support for allowing migrants to cross the border so some politicians and media opinion shows benefit from making border protection an issue.

We are sorely lacking in infrastructure investments. As an Iowan that grew up on the Mississippi River, I know we need to expand the locks, and improve or replace the dams. They were built in the 1930s with a 50-year projected life. They are about 35-years past their projected lifespan. Modern tows take about 2.5 hours to go through locks on the northern 29 locks of the Mississippi. (There are no locks south of St. Louis). Our locks are 600 feet length and in modern terms should be 1,200 feet. Congress won't allocate the funds to improve our Midwestern efficiency in shipping commodities worldwide.

We are not the dumbest country in the world, obviously, but in some respects we are approaching such astounding inefficiency as to be stupid. Consider the potential for safety problems on our river systems from not modernizing 90-year old infrastructure.

Let's not tax billionaires to pay for what they need from infrastructure to maintain their class status - it is wrong. Tax the middle class, or future generations. It is economically inefficient to tax those who benefit the most from infrastructure.

The key word you left out is "illegal" never said we should stop immigration 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 09:08:27 AM

We had #5 accomplished. That will no longer be the case.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2021, 09:15:16 AM

It's pretty obvious, I think, that limiting US production of petroleum and NG doesn't do anything about DEMAND and usage, it merely shifts production somewhere else.

That "oil" (or bitumen) from Canada is still being shipped and refined even without the XL pipeline, by rail.

It doesn't help climate change unless you reduce the demand side, not supply (though rising prices will attenuate demand some of course).

I'm a bit surprised a carbon tax is not on the table.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2021, 05:10:07 PM

From Wildcat Forever............

https://www.facebook.com/JohnStossel/videos/369144724571717 (https://www.facebook.com/JohnStossel/videos/369144724571717)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 06:39:43 AM

Interesting.

China to Launch the World’s Largest Emissions-Trading Program - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-emissions-trading-set-to-begin-11626247709?mod=djemwhatsnews)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2021, 09:45:44 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 06:39:43 AM

Interesting.

China to Launch the World’s Largest Emissions-Trading Program - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-emissions-trading-set-to-begin-11626247709?mod=djemwhatsnews)

So China will help other countries lower their co2 emissions while doing whatever they want at home

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2021, 04:21:26 PM

European Union Unveils Climate Plan To Cut Emissions By 55% This Decade : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/07/14/1015984262/europe-has-an-ambitious-new-climate-plan-that-imagines-a-dramatic-cut-in-emissio)

World leaders agreed six years ago in Paris to work to keep global temperatures from increasing more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 F) by the end of the century. Scientists say both goals will be missed by a wide margin unless drastic steps are taken to reduce emissions.


Globally, "we" are already badly missing these goals.  Goals are pretty easy to set, and often difficult or impossible to meet.  I don't see any country taking "drastic steps" as I think of the term.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 23, 2021, 09:58:33 AM

Interesting to see the Outer Banks spends millions every year to keep the beaches from shrinking. We saw a house that was too big to move that seems destined to be swallowed by the ocean. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on July 23, 2021, 10:24:40 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 23, 2021, 09:58:33 AM

Interesting to see the Outer Banks spends millions every year to keep the beaches from shrinking. We saw a house that was too big to move that seems destined to be swallowed by the ocean.

Down in Rodanthe, there are numerous (now abandoned) houses that are in the surf at high tide.  

FWIW, the beaches aren't shrinking, but the Banks are shifting southwest.  Nothing people can will stop that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 11:23:19 AM

Man cannot control nature. It's futile to even try, and mostly a waste of money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on July 23, 2021, 12:05:03 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 11:23:19 AM

Man cannot control nature. It's futile to even try, and mostly a waste of money.

Exactly.  If you build an oceanfront house on the Outer Banks, you just have to accept that it will be in the ocean eventually.

Better yet, owners should pay into a fund to tear down houses that become uninhabitable when the ocean begins to encroach.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2021, 12:05:43 PM

The Atlantic islands are all shifting south fairly quickly, and have been doing that for ages.

Thus far, the oceans have risen imperceptibly, and MSL is difficult to measure globally with that level of precision.  But humans are good at setting goals.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 23, 2021, 12:50:49 PM

An interesting problem. Natural erosion and rising sea levels make development seem dumb, but develop they do. They showed us a house they just finished - 24 bed, 24 baths just near the beach.

I also read that there is a worldwide sand shortage, which I imagine won't help the bottom line of keeping the beaches where they are. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2021, 01:13:08 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 23, 2021, 12:50:49 PM

An interesting problem. Natural erosion and rising sea levels make development seem dumb, but develop they do. They showed us a house they just finished - 24 bed, 24 baths just near the beach.

I also read that there is a worldwide sand shortage, which I imagine won't help the bottom line of keeping the beaches where they are.

ok what wise guy out there is hoarding sand

fess up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2021, 01:28:19 PM

folks that need 24 bathrooms in the same house

now, they might need a pallet of TP

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 01:29:14 PM

Need to go to UTee's house for that much TP.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2021, 01:29:40 PM

Beaches are not going to stay where they are, they never have.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on July 23, 2021, 02:05:35 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 23, 2021, 01:13:08 PM

ok what wise guy out there is hoarding sand

fess up

Okay, its me.  I'm stockpiling it in my crawlspace.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 23, 2021, 04:58:09 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 23, 2021, 01:28:19 PM

folks that need 24 bathrooms in the same house

now, they might need a pallet of TP

Plus the house was only accessible by a 4×4 that wouldn't get stuck driving in sand. The logistics of this seem...ridiculous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2021, 05:05:35 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 23, 2021, 04:58:09 PM

Plus the house was only accessible by a 4×4 that wouldn't get stuck driving in sand. The logistics of this seem...ridiculous.

Well, I'm sure it was a Range Rover lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on July 24, 2021, 12:42:31 AM

Quote from: Geolion91 on August 17, 2017, 01:29:41 PM

The climate will change regardless of human interference, it always has, always will. True. The rate of change from human activity is difficult to quantify.  False and without attribution. The actual change has been less than most models show, false with no attribution, although the rate of change has increased since the industrial revolution. True.

If we continue looking some other way, by 2100, we won't have worry about whether Penn State can schedule a prime time game in Miami because Miami will not exist, or at least not in its current location.

June 2021 was the hottest June on record for U.S. | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov) (https://www.noaa.gov/news/june-2021-was-hottest-june-on-record-for-us)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on July 24, 2021, 12:50:48 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2021, 05:10:07 PM

From Wildcat Forever............

https://www.facebook.com/JohnStossel/videos/369144724571717 (https://www.facebook.com/JohnStossel/videos/369144724571717)

The nuclear option will become an option when it can compete with solar and wind, and in regions not likely affected by catastrophic earthquakes.



Right now price-wise it cannot compete, regardless of earthquakes, unless you are prepared to pay 3.75 x for the privilege of clean nuclear power over clean wind power. Clean nuclear power comes with the additional price tag of safe storage of spent fuel rods, not considered in this equation. I am  not opposed to nuclear because it is a viable clean energy source, but get your wallet out. There are more efficient sources of energy with less risk, and no requirement of safe storage of spent fuel rods. Stossel included a lie in this video. He said improving technologies made wind and solar as cheap as nuclear. Wind and solar is way way, way cheaper, and less risky. I am not opposed to nuclear except where it is too dangerous - like at Fukishima on an earthquake risky area. And, I have an economics B.A., and while theoreitcally I am not opposed to nuclear generation, as a practical matter, how can one justify a nuclear power plant when wind and solar are about 60% less, and there is no additional cost for storage of radioactive material?
What Stossel said about economics of nuclear power is a crock. Right now, nuclear is the most expensive recognized electrical power source in the world. Spending money on nuclear power is like paying a very very expensive tax. If your monthly electric bill is $110, and your local utility builds a new nuclear power plant, expect a bill of $350 - 400 per month.
That said it is a great power source for the United States Navy, and could be for NASA.

(https://i.imgur.com/XqQr1Om.png)
 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#/media/File:20201019_Levelized_Cost_of_Energy_(LCOE,_Lazard)_-_renewable_energy.svg)

Regardless of expense, factor in risk. In a war, or without a war with terrorists, is it safe to store fuel rods on-site in pools of water at the local power plant, or if you think it is, articulate how when the Cordova nuclear plant, or your other nuclear power plant, is bombed? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 07:30:03 AM

Quote from: Hawkinole on July 24, 2021, 12:42:31 AM

If we continue looking some other way, by 2100, we won't have worry about whether Penn State can schedule a prime time game in Miami because Miami will not exist, or at least not in its current location.

How much do you think sea level would rise by 2100 if we "look some other way"?  I'm not sure what that means.

Politicians make promises to "do something", but I've yet to see a coherent actionable plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2021, 09:11:34 AM

terrorist bombings are a real thing and scary, but don't seem to be much of a risk for nuclear

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 10:19:59 AM

I've seen some pretty amazing plans. But America somewhat hopeless politically, at least on a federal level. Probably the best that can be done is make funding available and hope someone does something good with it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 10:39:51 AM

Funny how none of these "amazing plans" show up here, or on the Internet that I can find.

Maybe my idea of a "plan" is too specific and hard core and relates to actionability, instead of wishful thinking.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 24, 2021, 10:47:05 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 10:19:59 AM

I've seen some pretty amazing plans. But America somewhat hopeless politically, at least on a federal level. Probably the best that can be done is make funding available and hope someone does something good with it.

Hard to vote for funding when youre only 15% of the world problem
When China and India start funding we can look at the US doing likewise

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 10:57:12 AM

There are no serious plans, anywhere, just fodder for the gullible and a lot of money for the insiders.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 11:10:18 AM

There are no shortage of plans. Cursory research turns up hundreds. The old Google machine works.

However, our federal system is mostly dead. A small fraction of people can veto any plan, which is why there is no hope for something on a federal scale.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 11:13:51 AM

I've searched for years for a serious plan, and not found a single one, just some airy aspirational notional vague things to spend money and offer no practiability or detail at all.  The reason there are no plans is we simply can't get "there" from here in any sensible fashion.

It has zero to do with politics.  This is why Europe is struggling mightily despite their "political unanimity".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 11:17:49 AM

Gotta search smarter, I suppose. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2021, 11:31:20 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 11:17:49 AM

Gotta search smarter, I suppose.

Can you just give some links? Pretty please?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 11:33:55 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2021, 11:31:20 AM

Can you just give some links? Pretty please?

Man I have in the course of this thread. Google is probably better than a collection of links. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 11:41:38 AM

A bombshell report from closely followed International Energy Agency » Yale Climate Connections (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/a-bombshell-report-from-closely-followed-international-energy-agency/)

This isn't a plan, it's a list of things that have to happen, and it's clearly a joke.  I reference the "plan" before.  It starts with no more coal plants after 2021, which is obviously absurd.  I look at this and say "Ain't happenin', we need to consider another option."

What we get are "commitments" with no substance to them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 11:46:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 11:41:38 AM

A bombshell report from closely followed International Energy Agency » Yale Climate Connections (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/a-bombshell-report-from-closely-followed-international-energy-agency/)

This isn't a plan, it's a list of things that have to happen, and it's clearly a joke.  I reference the "plan" before.  It starts with no more coal plants after 2021, which is obviously absurd.  I look at this and say "Ain't happenin', we need to consider another option."

What we get are "commitments" with no substance to them.

Hey look plans. One problem is the mindset we have towards solving problems, which instead of choosing among the best of a bunch of tough options, we cling to the notion that if something isn't 100% solved, it is some sort of failure. The Talladega Nights of problem solving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 11:55:53 AM

Once again, that isn't a plan, at all, in any way shape or form, and it's dead out of the gate.  It's a clear indication that this simply is not happening despite all the promises and targets.  It's unrealistic, in the extreme.  Maybe wwith great effort and expense we can chip away a tenth or two, but this outline clearly shows "we" globally are simply not going to get anywhere close to net zero 2050.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 12:08:57 PM

Unrealistic and nonexistent are two very different things. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 12:13:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 11:13:51 AM

I've searched for years for a serious plan, and not found a single one, just some airy aspirational notional vague things to spend money and offer no practiability or detail at all.  The reason there are no plans is we simply can't get "there" from here in any sensible fashion.

I didn't say "nonexistent", I did note the pseudo-plans I had found were unrealistic and impracticable, which is in some ways even worse.

It's akin to having a plan to lose 20 pounds in a year, and you note you need to:

Run 5 miles a day.
Give up sugar.
Give up alcohol.
Hit the gym 3x a week.

And then a month into it you find you have run half a mile once, been to the gym once, and drank yourself silly.  Yeah, it's a plan, but wasn't practicable, and wasn't going to happen.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 12:32:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 12:13:57 PM

I didn't say "nonexistent", I did note the pseudo-plans I had found were unrealistic and impracticable, which is in some ways even worse.

It's akin to having a plan to lose 20 pounds in a year, and you note you need to:

Run 5 miles a day.
Give up sugar.
Give up alcohol.
Hit the gym 3x a week.

And then a month into it you find you have run half a mile once, been to the gym once, and drank yourself silly.  Yeah, it's a plan, but wasn't practicable, and wasn't going to happen. 

Do people not run 5K a day, skip sugar and alcohol, and go to the gym? Surely I'm not one of them, but they do exist. What's missing is commitment, not a plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 24, 2021, 01:00:24 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 24, 2021, 10:47:05 AM

Hard to vote for funding when youre only 15% of the world problem
When China and India start funding we can look at the US doing likewise

Ya why spend perhaps billions and risk our financial future when other nations who stand to gain just as much are obstaining and in fact counter productive. RIGHT NOW the only reasonable solution I see is Nuclear.But many are more worried about PC than practicality 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 24, 2021, 01:05:59 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 12:32:20 PM

Do people not run 5K a day, skip sugar and alcohol, and go to the gym? Surely I'm not one of them, but they do exist. What's missing is commitment, not a plan.

Skip 3 of the 4 then you're prolly at Keggs & Eggs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 03:33:32 PM

I asked for a practicable, realistic plan.  There isn't one, anywhere, because it simply is not possible within the constraints of the situation.  The IEA outline shows the ridiculousness of this quite clearly, it lays out needed steps that will not happen and are not happening, already.  It's dead on arrival.

But we probably can and well might spend trillions to shave off a tenth or two.

We should also be looking at mitigation and management.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 04:15:40 PM

On some measures, Paris could be judged a failure. Emissions in 2015 were about 50 bn tonnes. By 2019, they had risen to about 55bn tonnes (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/26/united-nations-global-effort-cut-emissions-stop-climate-chaos-2030), according to the UN Environment Programme (Unep). Carbon output fell dramatically, by about 17% overall and far more in some regions, in this spring’s coronavirus lockdowns, but the plunge also revealed an uncomfortable truth: even when transport, industry and commerce grind to a halt, the majority of emissions remain intact. Far greater systemic change is needed, particularly in energy generation around the world, to meet the Paris goals.

Ban Ki-moon, former UN secretary-general, told the Guardian: “We have lost a lot of time. Five years after the agreement in Paris was adopted with huge expectations and commitment by world leaders, we have not done enough.”

What’s more, we are still digging up and burning fossil fuels at a frantic rate. Unep reported last week (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/world-is-doubling-down-on-fossil-fuels-despite-climate-crisis-un-report) that production of fossil fuels is planned to increase by 2% a year. Meanwhile, we continue to destroy the world’s carbon sinks, by cutting down forests – the world is still losing an area of forest the size of the UK each year (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/12/deforestation-world-losing-area-forest-size-of-uk-each-year-report-finds), despite commitments to stop deforestation – as well as drying out peatlands and wetlands, and reducing the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon from the air.
Global temperatures have already risen by more than 1C above pre-industrial levels (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/09/global-temperatures-likely-to-hit-at-least-1c-warming-for-next-five-years), and the results in extreme weather are evident around the world. Wildfires (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/06/california-wildfires-gigafire-first) raged across Australia and the US this year, more than 30 hurricanes struck (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/10/devastating-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-breaks-all-records), heatwaves blasted Siberia (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/17/climate-crisis-alarm-at-record-breaking-heatwave-in-siberia), and the Arctic ice is melting faster (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/arctic-ice-polar-ocean-shrinks-climate-change).

The Paris agreement five years on: is it strong enough to avert climate catastrophe? | Paris climate agreement | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/08/the-paris-agreement-five-years-on-is-it-strong-enough-to-avert-climate-catastrophe)


Reality is often unpleasant, but it doesn't care.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 24, 2021, 04:47:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 03:33:32 PM

I asked for a practicable, realistic plan.  There isn't one, anywhere, because it simply is not possible within the constraints of the situation.  The IEA outline shows the ridiculousness of this quite clearly, it lays out needed steps that will not happen and are not happening, already.  It's dead on arrival.

But we probably can and well might spend trillions to shave off a tenth or two.

We should also be looking at mitigation and management.

Any good plan would look at reducing the amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere. This is clearly achievable, easily measurable, and there are numerous ways to accomplish it. The idea that no plan exists is absurd. It is simply false. That there is no plan we wish to follow - quite true.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 05:38:01 PM

That is a goal, not a plan.  And obviously we're not making progress, and that trend will continue for some years, CO2 levels are going to continue to rise unless there is a massive global recession.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 07:58:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2021, 05:38:01 PM

That is a goal, not a plan.  And obviously we're not making progress, and that trend will continue for some years, CO2 levels are going to continue to rise unless there is a massive global recession.

It's a goal, and a measurement. If you want get in better shape and lose weight so you can feel better and not have diabetes, it's difficult to measure "feeling great" or "diabetes." Instead, they measure things like weight loss, blood sugar, etc. It's the same with climate change. Measuring the temperature of the entire world is difficult, and not particularly helpful. Measuring the carbon in the atmosphere is much easier. While reducing the overall impact on the climate is the goal, the way to measure our success is fairly easily measured. That's why I scoff at the notion that there is no plan. There are lots of plans. There are just no plans that people want to follow. As I said before and will continue to say, this is a great political challenge as well as all the other challenges. 100 years of ignoring the costs of fossil fuels has made looking at their costs feel difficult. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2021, 08:21:19 AM

A plan China doesn't want to follow is obviously a useless plan.  This is a group effort, or no effort at all, one that penalizes the countries trying and lets the others do as they may, with significant competitive advantage.

But even IF somehow all the countries were truly serious about this, there is NO WAY practicably to get even close to the IEA "goals", nor even the Paris Goals, with massive dislocations and expenditures, truly massive.    Or very quick nuclear power, which also is not practicable.

This is why I keep noting the obvious, there is no real plan.  There are various goals and a lot of PR happening, and pretending we're actually doing something.  I proposed a fairly actionable plan before, it wouldn't get to net zero 2050, but it is decently practicable with some considerable effort and focus.  And we could do it at least in the US, but that's not going to fly obviously, we're just going to randomly throw money at wind and solar, as we have in the past.

And end up with a lot of money spent to achieve very very little.

It's time to 'fess up and face reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 01:12:44 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 25, 2021, 08:21:19 AM

A plan China doesn't want to follow is obviously a useless plan.  This is a group effort, or no effort at all, one that penalizes the countries trying and lets the others do as they may, with significant competitive advantage.

But even IF somehow all the countries were truly serious about this, there is NO WAY practicably to get even close to the IEA "goals", nor even the Paris Goals, with massive dislocations and expenditures, truly massive.    Or very quick nuclear power, which also is not practicable.

This is why I keep noting the obvious, there is no real plan.  There are various goals and a lot of PR happening, and pretending we're actually doing something.  I proposed a fairly actionable plan before, it wouldn't get to net zero 2050, but it is decently practicable with some considerable effort and focus.  And we could do it at least in the US, but that's not going to fly obviously, we're just going to randomly throw money at wind and solar, as we have in the past.

And end up with a lot of money spent to achieve very very little.

It's time to 'fess up and face reality.

Well, not sure where to go with that. Obviously, there are plans, but political pressure snuffs them out. It is important to note that it is America who is the real weakling here. After being the world leader in emissions for decades, they fell behind China as China became a manufacturing base for much of America (and the world). Simply blaming China is not really logical. Further, the United State signaled pulling out of the Paris Accords less than two years after signing them. How any country could look to America has a leader here is beyond any comprehension. The Paris Accords themselves are a negotiated political document, not some sort of scientific utopian ideal. That we couldn't hold up our end of the bargain for 24 months is a big part of the problem.

So, saying there is no plan is silly. There are plans - they could be effective. However, the political system in the United States makes any kind of legislation nearly impossible. It is part of a broader problem - the veto of the minority has made getting anything done pretty difficult. It is time to face reality - without change in American elections and power structures, there is no hope to implement any plan of any sort for any reason.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2021, 01:15:40 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 01:12:44 PM

Well, not sure where to go with that. Obviously, there are plans, but political pressure snuffs them out. It is important to note that it is America who is the real weakling here. After being the world leader in emissions for decades, they fell behind China as China became a manufacturing base for much of America (and the world). Simply blaming China is not really logical. Further, the United State signaled pulling out of the Paris Accords less than two years after signing them. How any country could look to America has a leader here is beyond any comprehension. The Paris Accords themselves are a negotiated political document, not some sort of scientific utopian ideal. That we couldn't hold up our end of the bargain for 24 months is a big part of the problem.

So, saying there is no plan is silly. There are plans - they could be effective. However, the political system in the United States makes any kind of legislation nearly impossible. It is part of a broader problem - the veto of the minority has made getting anything done pretty difficult. It is time to face reality - without change in American elections and power structures, there is no hope to implement any plan of any sort for any reason.

what the hell does that mean

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 25, 2021, 01:15:40 PM

what the hell does that mean

It means making the elections resemble America rather than two parties whose primary aim to to have power and keep the other from having it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2021, 01:19:03 PM

we pulled out of the Paris accords because they would possibly bind us when China and others would not be bound

The US account for 15% of emissions

China and India account for over 45% of emissions

there is no plan

there is only a movement to spend money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2021, 01:19:34 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

It means making the elections resemble America rather than two parties whose primary aim to to have power and keep the other from having it.

and how do you do that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 01:23:46 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 25, 2021, 01:19:34 PM

and how do you do that

Well, there are lots of ways - take the electoral college, for example. You could get rid of it. You could revert it back to the original form, where electors are elected, who then actually elect the president. You could double the amount of representatives. You could make third parties viable by getting rid of winner takes all elections. Etc. There are many, many plans there, too, but choosing one and following it is tougher.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2021, 01:33:22 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 01:23:46 PM

Well, there are lots of ways - take the electoral college, for example. You could get rid of it. You could revert it back to the original form, where electors are elected, who then actually elect the president. You could double the amount of representatives. You could make third parties viable by getting rid of winner takes all elections. Etc. There are many, many plans there, too, but choosing one and following it is tougher.

none of that will get rid of the 2 party system

not sure what you mean by getting rid of winner take all elections

we have a primary system that already allows for this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on July 25, 2021, 02:03:56 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 25, 2021, 01:33:22 PM

none of that will get rid of the 2 party system

not sure what you mean by getting rid of winner take all elections

we have a primary system that already allows for this

In nearly all our elections, the winner of a seat gets the seat and the loser gets nothing. Imagine if seats were awarded based on the proportion of vote they get. If the Green party, for example, gets 5 percent of the total vote, they get 5 representatives out of 100, instead of zero.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2021, 02:09:08 PM

My point, obviously, is that even if the US politics were such that there was broad support for doing something about this issue, there simply is no realistic thing to do that "solves" even a significant part of the problem.  No matter how much we blame this or that, the real issue is practical enablement.  We could all agree, and spend tons of money, only to see our CO2 contributions continue to rise, and perhaps in a decade start to decline, slowly, not nearly fast enough to matter.

And China and India have to play ball quite clearly.  And they won't.

My approach would be to do what make sense to do, mainly provide a realistic plan to  take coal off line in the US.  We benefit from that, at some expense, even if it doesn't help the other problem much.  I keep hearing how wind and solar are now economic, great, it will take care of itself then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2021, 09:17:15 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2021, 01:29:40 PM

Beaches are not going to stay where they are, they never have.

Check out this AI-based synthetic beach generator.

https://thisbeachdoesnotexist.com/ (https://thisbeachdoesnotexist.com/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 26, 2021, 09:21:59 AM

This is unseasonable...

Edit: intent was to put that in the other news thread where y'all were talking about needing rain...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2021, 09:24:08 AM

I had to walk a bit this morning here, it is icky sticky.

79°F and must be 400% RH.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2021, 10:11:55 AM

yup, 90% humidity this morning

a bit of fog

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 26, 2021, 12:39:10 PM

SoCal is not known for humidity in summer. Yesterday morning was a big exception.

I played golf and we teed off at 8:00 AM with overcast skies and absolutely perfect temps (low 70s at tee-off IIRC). 

By the 3rd tee I was already drenched in sweat due to the humidity. 

It just got worse as we got to about the back nine and the sun started peeking through and the temps rose. 

It was a two bottles of water, two gatorades, and two beers sort of round lol. (And I played like trash too.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 26, 2021, 12:46:59 PM

Yeah, the monsoons bring in some humidity. 

Kind of weird to watch it rain sideways in a place that normally gets nothing more than a light drizzle. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2021, 02:42:13 PM

Despite Pledges to Cut Emissions, China Goes on a Coal Spree - Yale E360 (https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree)

Emissions from food alone could use up all of our budget for 1.5°C or 2°C – but we have a range of opportunities to avoid this - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/food-emissions-carbon-budget)

The lurking threat to solar power’s growth | MIT Technology Review (https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/14/1028461/solar-value-deflation-california-climate-change/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on July 27, 2021, 06:07:18 PM

We haven't hit 100 in two years.  But it is very humid, and the heat index has been over 110 the last couple of days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 27, 2021, 06:33:27 PM

Re: models*...

(https://i.imgur.com/jpo6cBO.png)

The mouseover text was "We trained it to produce data that looked convincing, and we have to admit the results look convincing!"

* Note of course is that this had nothing to do with climate or models--but I saw this and immediately thought of models and this thread...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on July 27, 2021, 10:31:14 PM

Sweaty round here this weekend but hey I've doubled my round output from last year and carded an eagle for first time in about ten years. 

2 iron-4iron-gap wedge from about 15 yards.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2021, 08:05:45 AM

bravo!

I'm going out this morning, 110+ degree heat index - 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 28, 2021, 10:21:29 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on July 27, 2021, 10:31:14 PM

Sweaty round here this weekend but hey I've doubled my round output from last year and carded an eagle for first time in about ten years.

2 iron-4iron-gap wedge from about 15 yards.

Nice! I've never made an eagle... I've been close (inches) to a hole in one a few times, but never had one drop.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2021, 11:32:35 AM

I have one, on a par 4.  Hit my tee shot left into the rough.  Blasted a 5 wood low and solid from about 220 out, bounced about 15 yards short of the green, bounced twice, and I lost sight of it.  I could tell it was pretty good, but I thought it was too hot and went past the green.

The girl I was dating at the time, was up higher on the right side of the fairway, and said "I think it went in, that's pretty cool."  It was her first time ever golfing.  Sigh...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2021, 04:40:06 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p526x296/230974463_6434554916570240_7938194849925330414_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-4&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=fecs2ycimpEAX9Vq3_R&tn=DQyWguGePQvwhrSC&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=19f4158e9d3c69bd4af593a9e43563a7&oe=61123B9F)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 07, 2021, 07:24:30 PM

We've got a bunch of smoke settling in the area. 

Simulating those California smoggy conditions. 



(https://www.stgeorgeutah.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/aerial-smoke-city-FI-970x546.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2021, 04:06:31 PM

The western United States is now in a megadrought, that is, a drought spanning decades. The drought impacting the Colorado River can be traced back to 2000.

Much of California’s wastewater is treated and dumped into the Pacific Ocean. But as western states continue to suffer through this megadrought, water managers and lawmakers say the wastewater must be recycled.

“Recycled water is going to be extremely important, not just in the west but likely throughout the entire nation,” said Bronson Mack with the Southern Nevada Water Authority.


https://www.koin.com/news/washington-dc/western-states-look-at-recycling-water-from-toilets-to-tap/ (https://www.koin.com/news/washington-dc/western-states-look-at-recycling-water-from-toilets-to-tap/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2021, 04:09:32 PM

Often, effluent from a sewerage plant is potable.  It should be recycled by us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2021, 04:29:21 PM

A couple years back, one of the roads near my [previous] house underwent a BUNCH of construction. I wasn't sure why; the road was in fine shape already, and they weren't adding lanes...

It was so that they can use recycled water for irrigation. They were laying pipe. There was a large golf course bordering that road, and that was going to be one of the beneficiaries of this recycled water. 

There are great uses for recycled water even if it's not for drinking.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2021, 04:33:44 PM

It's all recycled eventually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 05:27:09 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 09, 2021, 04:06:31 PM

The western United States is now in a megadrought, that is, a drought spanning decades. The drought impacting the Colorado River can be traced back to 2000.

Much of California’s wastewater is treated and dumped into the Pacific Ocean. But as western states continue to suffer through this megadrought, water managers and lawmakers say the wastewater must be recycled.

“Recycled water is going to be extremely important, not just in the west but likely throughout the entire nation,” said Bronson Mack with the Southern Nevada Water Authority.


https://www.koin.com/news/washington-dc/western-states-look-at-recycling-water-from-toilets-to-tap/ (https://www.koin.com/news/washington-dc/western-states-look-at-recycling-water-from-toilets-to-tap/)

In 20-20 (or, as Cam Newton says, "50-50") hindsight, that wastewater should have been recycled starting way back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2021, 06:07:30 PM

it's not too late to do the right thing

like moving out of the desert 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 09, 2021, 06:10:44 PM

Sam Kinison said something along those lines

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 09, 2021, 06:13:17 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 07, 2021, 07:24:30 PM

We've got a bunch of smoke settling in the area.

Simulating those California smoggy conditions.

The refugees brought it with them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 09, 2021, 11:52:29 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 09, 2021, 06:13:17 PM

The refugees brought it with them

The smoke did come from Northern California, as it turns out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 08:21:42 AM

you believe the media

the meteorologist???? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 08:52:58 AM

HA! ya they've been bullshitting the masses for quite some time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 01:53:29 PM

I was reading this and found it interesting...

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/opinions/the-modern-data-center-as-a-grid-layering-your-edge-solutions/

As I've said before, I worry somewhat about how well batteries will scale, not only for EV but for energy storage. 

I.e. one of the great ideas for home power is solar during the day, charging up a battery pack that provides power overnight. It's low-carbon (albeit may not be entirely "green" due to the difficulty of mining the metals used in the batteries) and is an effective way to power your home almost entirely with free energy from the sun. 

But... I don't know that we can scale it to the level needed, especially for larger energy users (data centers being the one discussed in the link). 

Hydrogen fuel cells are an alternative. But, the downside is that to separate hydrogen usually requires a lot of electricity, so the efficiency losses when you use conventional power sources to separate the hydrogen is a downside. And then for transportation (or home storage), the fact that hydrogen really likes to explode doesn't help.

So, at what scale does it make sense to use solar or other clean energy to separate hydrogen during the day when energy from the sun is free, and then use that hydrogen in fuel cells in the evening to power generators with only water vapor as the output? 

Seems like it would potentially be even more "green" than battery storage, as you don't need to mine all of the component metals that you need for batteries. 

So what's holding this back?

I'm sure there are major considerations [economic/technological] that I'm missing here, but I thought I'd throw it out for discussion...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 02:03:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 09, 2021, 04:09:32 PM

Often, effluent from a sewerage plant is potable.  It should be recycled by us.

Only if it treated, in a very expensive manner. Using it for irrigation is much more efficient than treating it to the point it would be safe for consumption.

One huge issue is the amount of Rx drugs that are found in the waste water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 02:42:37 PM

Today's XKCD: https://xkcd.com/2500/

(https://i.imgur.com/m3KzanY.png)

Mouseover text: "I was really impressed by the accuracy of some of the report's predictions about fossil fuel consumption. Then I realized, oh, right, of course."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 10, 2021, 03:49:59 PM

I should not say often.  A good friend of mine worked for Cincy MSW and said they did tertiary treatment and the effluent was potable, but it went into the river.  It was cleaner than the river water they took in to treat to make potable water.

We had a mini treatment plant at the building where I worked many years on the Greater Miami that claimed the same.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 07:52:42 AM

Discuss?

Connolly (raa-journal.org) (http://www.raa-journal.org/raa/index.php/raa/article/view/4920/6080)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 07:59:32 AM

Water cuts are coming to Arizona and Nevada after the US declared the first-ever Colorado River water shortage (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/water-cuts-are-coming-to-arizona-and-nevada-after-the-us-declared-the-first-ever-colorado-river-water-shortage/ar-AANopBb?ocid=uxbndlbing)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 08:04:09 AM

Solar variability was proposed as an alternative or additional factor over a decade ago.  Climate patterns for over 2000 years had been correlated with fluctuating solar output.

It seemed reasonable to me at the time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 08:51:32 AM

The sun's impact has been discussed for decades.  The "Little Ice Age" was coincident with many fewer spots on the sun.  But the climate folks have apparently ruled it's influence out as a major factor.  I'm not sure why exactly, I read a bit on this possible influence a few years back and then it seemed it had been dismissed.

I had a notion we might have competing influences, cooling due to the sun and warming due to GHGs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 10:42:45 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 07:52:42 AM

Discuss?

Connolly (raa-journal.org) (http://www.raa-journal.org/raa/index.php/raa/article/view/4920/6080)

Very interesting stuff. Thanks for posting, Badge.

I'd like to get a look at the full 72-page paper. As this is a summary, I note a few things:

• The graphs used are basically the endpoints. I.e. their "left" graph assumes almost 100% human causes of global warming by using a solar dataset that is least variable. At the same time, their "right" graph uses the most variable solar output graph, which would show the least impact of human causes. A non-careful reading would look at the right graph and say "Look! They just proved that humans cause barely any warming!" But that would not be true--the truth is probably somewhere in the middle between the two.
• Their dataset on the "right" graph uses only rural temperature data. This is purported to remove the urban heat island effect, and may be 100% valid, but it can also be accused of cherry-picking the dataset which shows the lowest observed warming. 
• There is a strawman on the climate "alarmist" side that the skeptic/"denier" side doesn't believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas causing ANY warming. That's not true of the skeptic side, and not true even of laymen except for morons. I would highlight that this paper is not in any way claiming that humans and CO2 aren't responsible for warming, it's trying to determine what portion of the warming is human-caused because that's the only portion we have any control over. If humans are responsible for 85%, we probably need to address it. If we're responsible for 15%, then most attempts to reduce CO2 output are pointless. 
• This is 3 pages, trying to summarize a 72-page paper. I get the sense, like most abstracts, that this is meant to be the most controversial statement of the paper available to generate interest. I suspect that they took the most salacious bits from the paper. 

The full paper is available here if you want to slog through it all. I am going to give it a try, but it might not be for a few days.

http://www.raa-journal.org/raa/index.php/raa/article/view/4906/6081

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 10:45:15 AM

When science collides with an item of public interest, the result often is less than desirable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 05:02:02 PM

New Confirmation that Climate Models Overstate Atmospheric Warming | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/08/17/new-confirmation-that-climate-models-overstate-atmospheric-warming-2/#more-27805)

Interesting, perhaps.  It would be good if this is correct.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 05:11:49 PM

fingers crossed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2021, 06:04:18 AM

Coal prices: The world’s least-liked commodity sees remarkable rally (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/coal-prices-the-worlds-least-liked-commodity-sees-remarkable-rally.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2021, 10:06:48 AM

China?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2021, 11:22:48 AM

China and India and other less developed countries are going to coal big time.  They often lack NG, so what else can they use?  Nuclear is too expensive.

Electrical power is THE critical thing for any advanced country, with it, you can do just about anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on August 19, 2021, 04:48:11 PM

Oops, wrong thread

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2021, 04:50:32 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on August 19, 2021, 04:48:11 PM

David Montgomery at MPR seems confident that the current COVID wave has stalled out, and if not now, then this weekend. Just in time for the State Fair and school reopenings.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1428391673638313996?s=20

when I see the seven day moving average trend down then I will agree

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 10:12:22 AM

The powerful greenhouse gases tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane have been building up in the atmosphere from unknown sources. Now, modelling suggests that China’s aluminium industry is a major culprit.

The gases are thousands of times more effective than carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere. Official tallies of tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane emissions from factories are too low to account for the levels in the air, which began to rise in 2015 after seven years of relative stability.

Seeking to pinpoint the sources of those emissions, Jooil Kim at the University of California, San Diego, and his colleagues analysed air samples collected roughly every 2 hours between November 2007 and December 2019 on South Korea’s Jeju Island. The scientists also modelled the weather patterns that transported air across the island during that period, to track the gases’ origins.

The results suggest that aluminium smelters in China account for a large proportion of these chemicals in the atmosphere.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02231-0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02231-0)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on August 20, 2021, 08:40:15 PM

Effin' China!  For a billion reasons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 08:47:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 10:12:22 AM

The powerful greenhouse gases tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane have been building up in the atmosphere from unknown sources. Now, modelling suggests that China’s aluminium industry is a major culprit.

The gases are thousands of times more effective than carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere. Official tallies of tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane emissions from factories are too low to account for the levels in the air, which began to rise in 2015 after seven years of relative stability.

Seeking to pinpoint the sources of those emissions, Jooil Kim at the University of California, San Diego, and his colleagues analysed air samples collected roughly every 2 hours between November 2007 and December 2019 on South Korea’s Jeju Island. The scientists also modelled the weather patterns that transported air across the island during that period, to track the gases’ origins.

The results suggest that aluminium smelters in China account for a large proportion of these chemicals in the atmosphere.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02231-0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02231-0)

Wow this is shocking news and nobody ever could have predicted it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2021, 09:37:25 AM

Anyone who thinks China will do more than lip service for PR purposes on this area is delusional.  That goes for "normal" pollution as well.  They are low cost producer of things because they don't care about the environment.  At all.

And that isn't going to change.  Whatever steps we take will be drop in a bucket.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2021, 09:19:46 AM

FEMA: Coastal Flood Risks

"This homepage houses all resources and mapping information related to coastal flood risks and mapping for all stakeholder groups in coastal communities nationwide. Historically, cities, towns and villages are settled around ports along the nation's coastlines, providing individuals and families opportunities for trade, jobs and transportation, recreation and relaxation.

https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management/manage-risk (https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management/manage-risk)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2021, 10:00:38 AM

Global electric emissions outpace pre-pandemic levels: research | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/569354-global-electric-emissions-outpace-pre-pandemic-levels-research)

What I foresee is:

1.  More meetings and more promises.
2.  More GHG emissions globally.
3.  More handwringing and failure to admit the obvious.

The one thing we won't  get more of is realistic appraisals.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 26, 2021, 08:42:44 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/AZSgPlT.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2021, 09:22:18 AM

I think we'll have to have Diesel generators for emergency services for EVs.  It's not stupid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 27, 2021, 09:30:52 AM

That whole scenerio isn't energy efficient is the point.....I'm guessing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2021, 09:52:23 AM

No, it's not, at all.  At some point we might have towable batteries to service EVs out of charge.  But if they are charged from coal plants, the advantage is of course reduced.

I suspect it's time for another Climate Conference where folks get together and issue stern warnings and make more promises to "do stuff".

Then, in five more years, they will have repeated the process just as they have for the last number of years, meetings, promises, and no effective action.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2021, 11:17:24 AM

And billions (or trillions, if some get their way) spent foolishly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2021, 11:19:51 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2021, 11:17:24 AM

And billions (or trillions, if some get their way) spent foolishly.

That's what government excels at.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2021, 11:22:08 AM

It's about the only thing it excels at.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 27, 2021, 04:41:10 PM

Ida getting ready to hit SEC country

Houston is gonna dodge another one it looks like

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 11:36:09 AM

This could be really bad. It's expected to hit as a CAT 4. 

The flood "protection" system was designed to handle a CAT 3 (even though Katrina was a CAT 5).

(https://i.imgur.com/JYJ6zvU.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 28, 2021, 11:41:17 AM

Could be even worse than Katrina, because Katrina came in on the east side of New Orleans so the dirty side was over in Mississippi (which got leveled, way worse than anything Louisiana saw that day).  It was the storm surge and levees failing that made Katrina so bad, and that danger is still there, but this time New Orleans also looks to be getting the dirty side of the hurricane.

This is really bad.  My buddy in Baton Rouge decided a couple of days ago to stay home and ride it out, I hope he's okay.  He's been through a few of these so he knows what he's in for, but you never know what weirdness can occur.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 28, 2021, 11:45:56 AM

right now the only good thing about this storm is that its moving at a very fast pace 16 mph

if it will not slow down too much it will move on inland instead of punishing the coastal areas 

anyway thats the hope

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 11:58:40 AM

Where is @MikeDeTiger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1588) living these days?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 28, 2021, 12:13:20 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 11:58:40 AM

Where is @MikeDeTiger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1588) living these days?

I was under the impression he lives in Ida country

not sure though

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 28, 2021, 12:14:49 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 28, 2021, 11:45:56 AM

right now the only good thing about this storm is that its moving at a very fast pace 16 mph

if it will not slow down too much it will move on inland instead of punishing the coastal areas

anyway thats the hope

as a follow up when Katrina hit it was moving at less the 7 mph

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 28, 2021, 01:51:09 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 11:58:40 AM

Where is @MikeDeTiger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1588) living these days?

I texted him, he's in East Texas now, so should be well clear of the storm's path.  They might get some rain from the outer bands but nothing else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 28, 2021, 03:24:49 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 28, 2021, 01:51:09 PM

I texted him, he's in East Texas now, so should be well clear of the storm's path.  They might get some rain from the outer bands but nothing else.

Nobody gave him permission to move to Texas

Read him his rights

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 08:47:01 AM

He married a Texas gal so I think we can allow it.  He has tacitly admitted that Texas is the more desirable state.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:12:37 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/WW814JM.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 09:50:03 AM

It's now a Cat4, still bound to make landfall with New Orleans on the dirty side.  The wind damage from this in  New Orleans is going to be a lot worse than Katrina. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 10:02:46 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUge8CGh_5k

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 29, 2021, 10:04:54 AM

From just looking at the radar it looks like the eye will be passing right over NO

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2021, 01:35:21 PM

Real-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Activity (colostate.edu) (http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/)

Useful site for checking cyclonic activity versus norms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2021, 10:47:44 PM

getting some much needed rain  and some hail that is not needed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2021, 07:12:26 AM

I infer it was not as bad as it might have been.

It's tough to get a realistic assessment in "the news".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2021, 07:17:16 AM

Scientists detail role of climate change in Ida's intensity | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/570087-scientists-detail-role-of-climate-change-in-idas-intensity)

This is a confusing story, it claims we won't get more storms, but more serious hurricanes, and then says this year we've had more storms.  And the ACE numbers are not up globally.  I get that warmer ocean surface temperatures should produce more intense storms, but as yet, over the years, there is no clear trend line in that direction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 31, 2021, 07:37:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2021, 07:12:26 AM

I infer it was not as bad as it might have been.

It's tough to get a realistic assessment in "the news".

We'll know in about a week. Too soon.

They key is that most, if not all, of the USACE levees held up. Other local ones did not.

Power loss is the biggest thing now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 31, 2021, 07:53:13 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 03, 2017, 05:23:10 PM

I love awesome weather.  Git 80 at my house two days ago.  Supposed to be 90 on Tuesday.

You know, real honest-to-goodness FOOTBALL WEATHER!  8)

(https://i.imgur.com/mzxGuoa.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 08:36:24 AM

I'm no expert, but the ocean temp raising a half a degree doesn't seem like a big deal for producing storms or hurricanes or anything

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 09:35:49 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 31, 2021, 07:37:16 AM

We'll know in about a week. Too soon.

They key is that most, if not all, of the USACE levees held up. Other local ones did not.

Power loss is the biggest thing now.

I'm not hearing much about it at all, which is bad news IMO.  They're having a tough time getting in to certain areas, and that's not a good sign.

We'll definitely know a lot more in another week.  Too soon right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 31, 2021, 10:11:11 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 08:36:24 AM

I'm no expert, but the ocean temp raising a half a degree doesn't seem like a big deal for producing storms or hurricanes or anything

After the last two weeks fish will come out of the water braised

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 10:13:32 AM

cooling down here finally

sending it your way

highs in the 70s forecast the next ten days!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 10:14:59 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 10:13:32 AM

cooling down here finally

sending it your way

highs in the 70s forecast the next ten days!!!

It's Christmas already???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2021, 10:15:51 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 31, 2021, 10:11:11 AM

After the last two weeks fish will come out of the water braised

Poached, Nubbz... Poached. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 10:21:23 AM

he's not a chef

eats cold sammiches over the sink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2021, 12:25:04 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 08:36:24 AM

I'm no expert, but the ocean temp raising a half a degree doesn't seem like a big deal for producing storms or hurricanes or anything

It's not the temperature directly, but the heat, and water contains a large heat capacity.

We're catching an outer band of Ida here, some rain, blustery winds, it's kind of amazing really that a storm can weaken overland over hundreds of miles and still pack a noticeable punch.  Obviously, it's nothing like the real thing.  Baby.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 31, 2021, 05:35:09 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2021, 10:15:51 AM

Poached, Nubbz... Poached.

Well between that and sushi

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 31, 2021, 05:47:17 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 10:21:23 AM

he's not a chef

eats cold sammiches over the sink

Not always sometimes I use paper plates - do you take me for a crass individual?Dagwoods,Scoobies,Shaggies,Wimpies can't help it I'm the high fallutin' type

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 11:53:42 PM

sorry, I took you for a crass individual?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 01, 2021, 07:21:27 AM

Ohio officially flipped to September - was hot and humid the past two weeks, this morning is breezy, cool, and makes me want to break out the chili pot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2021, 10:07:00 AM

high of 80 here this afternoon

much better than the past 2 months or 3, but not ready for chili

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 10:42:13 AM

High of 76 here. Should be almost done with AC for the year, but I think we might have one more bout of mid-80s before we're through.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 11:11:13 AM

Heat Index of 103 here today.  Summer finally arrived.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 11:17:21 AM

Beautiful day here, 75°F and PC right now, I was just out running, broke 11 minutes so I'm happy.  This extra 60 pounds I accumulated since HS is not helping.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on September 01, 2021, 04:50:35 PM

First day since the spring where it didn't hit 70 here.  Torrential rain too.  All that was missing was some football!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2021, 08:55:14 AM

Kerry says world can't solve climate crisis without China's engagement, commitment | TheHill (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/570510-kerry-says-world-cant-solve-climate-crisis-without-chinas-engagement)

DUH

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2021, 09:17:28 AM

A patented process for converting alcohol sourced from renewable or industrial waste gases into jet or diesel fuel is being scaled up at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with the help of partners at Oregon State University and the carbon-recycling experts at LanzaTech.

Two key technologies power the energy-efficient fuel production units.


A single-step chemical conversion streamlines what is currently a multi-step process. The new PNNL-patented catalyst converts biofuel (ethanol) directly into a versatile “platform” chemical called n-butene. A microchannel reactor design further reduces costs while delivering a scalable modular processing system.

The new process would provide a more efficient route for converting renewable and waste-derived ethanol to useful chemicals. Currently, n-butene is produced from fossil-based feedstocks using the energy-intensive cracking—or breaking down—of large molecules. The new technology reduces emissions of carbon dioxide by using renewable or recycled carbon feedstocks. Using sustainably derived n-butene as a starting point, existing processes can further refine the chemical for multiple commercial uses, including diesel and jet fuels, and industrial lubricants.

https://scitechdaily.com/chemistry-breakthrough-faster-and-cheaper-ethanol-to-jet-fuel-on-the-horizon/ (https://scitechdaily.com/chemistry-breakthrough-faster-and-cheaper-ethanol-to-jet-fuel-on-the-horizon/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2021, 09:26:14 AM

So, they make ethanol, then butene, and then build that up to Kerosene?  Sounds expensive to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2021, 09:33:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2021, 08:55:14 AM

Kerry says world can't solve climate crisis without China's engagement, commitment | TheHill (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/570510-kerry-says-world-cant-solve-climate-crisis-without-chinas-engagement)

DUH

No shit Sherlock.

Can't solve it with him flying around in his private jet either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2021, 09:38:34 AM

This Ida storm is something else again. NYC closed. Devastation in LA. This was/is a bad one.

(https://i.imgur.com/2kBjRps.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2021, 12:17:48 PM

Wow, had not seen that in the news.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2021, 03:31:01 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/4QtVZmv.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2021, 04:23:33 PM

Well that seems aggressive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2021, 04:26:23 PM

Heh, it says a lot I think.  I wonder how many here would consider paying for carbon credits when they travel.

I don't, and would not.  I'd rather donate to some useful charity I have some confidence in.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 11:08:27 AM

hah, a pic I took of a sign above a urinal years ago

I was going through pics on my phone yesterday, putting together some pics of a good friend of mine that died of covid.  I'm giving the pics to his son.

I thought the pic humorous 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 03, 2021, 12:08:07 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 29, 2017, 02:26:05 PM

Tired of Hurricanes?

Come on up to Tornado alley.

They may be more frequent and deadly, but they have a much narrower path of destruction.

and they dont last long

wham bam your house is gone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 12:11:54 PM

always been fearful of tornadoes, since childhood

they occur in Texas and Florida

maybe I should move to northern Cali

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 03, 2021, 12:17:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 12:11:54 PM

always been fearful of tornadoes, since childhood

they occur in Texas and Florida

maybe I should move to northern Cali

How do you feel about earthquakes and tsunamis? 

Looks like the San Andreas goes offshore a bit south of Eureka, so if you end up in that area... May not want to buy at sea level lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 12:18:17 PM

no experience with earthquakes and tsunamis

especially in childhood

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2021, 07:16:07 AM

Homebuyers not worried about climate change: Redfin CEO (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/03/homebuyers-not-worried-about-climate-change-redfin-ceo.html)

Or maybe they view these impacts as being decades off?  We're told we already had a 0.9°C rise in global Ts, with another 1.1°C projected by, well, after 2050 sometime.  And a one meter rise in sea level by 2100.  If nothing is done.

Realistically, if the high temperatures here in summer go from an average of 89°F to 91°F, it won't make all that much difference in livability.  The same is true for MSL rise.  So storms may be more frequent, OK, so they might be.

Few home buyers are going to factor this into a decision at this point.  Maybe they regret it in 50 years?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2021, 07:18:55 AM

One of the most sensitive areas to CC is viniculture.  Most vineyards can't migrate north for geographic or soil type reasons.  Chablis for example is on a spot of a certain kind of chalk not present to its north.  At best, they might change varietals to a warmer weather tolerant type, chardonnay depends on cool nights.  Or they just produce what they have with a gradual change in flavor.  But that is one canary in this coal mine.

I've seen talks about this, but as yet nothing of consequence has happened.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 04, 2021, 07:43:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 12:18:17 PM

no experience with earthquakes and tsunamis

especially in childhood

How about bumper skiing?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2021, 09:09:25 AM

hell yes

and pulling an old car hood behind a 4-wheel drive pickup in the field

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2021, 09:11:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 04, 2021, 09:09:25 AM

hell yes

and pulling an old car hood behind a 4-wheel drive pickup in the field

We used to truck-ski in parking lots, just on the soles of our oldest boots.  They work surprisingly well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2021, 09:17:08 AM

whatever boot yer wearing, course mom might kick yer ass

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2021, 09:19:33 AM

I paid for my own boots by high school.  But I had one old ratty pair that were good for truck-skiing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 04, 2021, 09:20:35 AM

Boots something you wear when it's snowing. I no longer have any.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2021, 09:21:54 AM

You can wear boots with jeans.  You can wear boots with your Sunday finest.  I wore boots with my tuxedo when I got married.

Chicks look great in boots with sundresses.

Some dudes wear boots with shorts, but that ain't right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 04, 2021, 09:22:34 AM

I like sun dresses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2021, 07:54:20 AM

I can never find them in my size.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 05, 2021, 07:55:43 AM

Beat me to it ;D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 05, 2021, 08:24:56 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 04, 2021, 09:09:25 AM

hell yes

and pulling an old car hood behind a 4-wheel drive pickup in the field

I mention bumper skiing and kids today look at you like lobsters are crawling out your ears.Back in the '70s cars still had chrome plated bumpers that protruded from the frame and were easy to grab.Many times in the winter we'd grab a ride going a half mile or so down the road,of course it had to have snowed.Always had to watch for man hole covers as your feet never slid over those .Get into a tight crouch like a downhill racing skier grabbing the bumper.Never behind the exhaust pipe for obvious reasons or behind the tires,you'd a face full of slush/salt/mud.One time at nite I ran out to grabb a ride - it was cop - I just went past and into a near by woods.He didn't bother.This was called fun,no internet,cell phones or cable so you had to make do.We played football from like September thru february

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2021, 01:04:04 PM

15 minutes | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/09/03/15-minutes/#more-27827)

Worth a read in my view, a succinct and credible set of slides and comments.

In spite of the numerous UN treaties and agreements to reduce emissions, the atmospheric CO2 concentration relentlessly continues to increase
The challenge to getting to netzero by 2050 is illustrated by this diagram from the International Energy Agency.  This figure shows the pathways for emissions reductions that the major economies need to take to reach netzero by 2050.  Europe and the US have already turned the corner, but they still have a very steep path to netzero.  By 2050, global emissions will be dominated by whatever China and India have done, or have failed to do. 
The IEA roadmap finds that there is a possible but very narrow pathway to netzero by 2050, provided that there’s a huge leap in energy innovation and major efforts to build new infrastructure.  Others find that reaching netzero by 2050 is a social and technological impossibility.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 01:52:19 PM

Constraining the date of a seasonally ice‐free Arctic using a simple model - Bonan - - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094309)

Arctic sea ice coverage has declined substantially over the past few decades and is projected to continue to decline over the next century. These projections, however, are marred by large uncertainties which arise primarily due to differences between climate models. In this study, we use a simple model that emulates the future evolution of Arctic sea ice as simulated by climate models to explain where this uncertainty comes from. We show that biases in simulating present-day Arctic sea ice contribute most of the uncertainty, with climate model differences in the simulated amount of Arctic warming contributing much of the rest. We use observations to constrain our simple model and show that under a high emissions scenario it is likely the Arctic will be free of sea ice in September sometime between 2036–2056 and from July to October sometime between 2050–2068. We also show that the emissions pathway impacts the length of ice free summers in the Arctic, indicating a low-emissions pathway will reduce the likelihood of seeing ice-free Arctic summers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 13, 2021, 02:02:26 PM

Houston is in the path of a wanna be hurricane

No big deal if you dont mind the 10 to 15 inches of rain that comes with it

If this was New York they would request a natural disaster be declared

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 13, 2021, 07:10:29 PM

well the almost hurricane eye is now expected to pass right over down town Houston

fortunately the heavy stuff will be to the north east of the storm so other then a 5 to 10 inch rain we will have winds of about 40 mph which normally would be no problem but lately around my house if somebody sneezes the power goes out so I may be missing in action for a bit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 07:55:01 PM

Good luck lh320.  Got a backup generator?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 13, 2021, 08:05:30 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 07:55:01 PM

Good luck lh320.  Got a backup generator?

nope 2 children each having a house

time for payback

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 08:05:35 AM

I think BU generators are a "coming thing", meaning an underdeveloped market that is going to explode.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2021, 08:11:17 AM

My generator comes this month. Looking forward to that piece of mind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 08:21:12 AM

We have a combination of increasing wealth for homeowners, uncertain power supplies in some areas (CA, TX), and more advertising for BUGs.

At some point, many may use their EV as a backup.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 14, 2021, 08:41:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 08:05:35 AM

I think BU generators are a "coming thing", meaning an underdeveloped market that is going to explode.

Demand is definitely outstripping supply.  Even without the global supply chain interruptions from COVID, whole-home generators have been on long lead times for several years now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 08:46:34 AM

GNRC: 438.69 -12.62 (-2.80%) (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GNRC?qsearchterm=generac)

Trading at 55 times earnings, so the stock play has already run.  Might run a lot more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2021, 09:33:58 AM

Just talked with my daughter and she had no problems from the storm

She also told me she has a generator on order scheduled delivery next January

This is a stand alone and runs off natural gas

Im very envious

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 14, 2021, 09:36:34 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 14, 2021, 09:33:58 AM

Just talked with my daughter and she had no problems from the storm

She also told me she has a generator on order scheduled delivery next January

This is a stand alone and runs off natural gas

Im very envious

Yup, if I lived in an area that was prone to hurricanes/flooding natural disasters on a regular basis, I'd definitely have a whole-home genny plumbed into the natural gas lines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2021, 09:49:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 08:46:34 AM

GNRC: 438.69 -12.62 (-2.80%) (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GNRC?qsearchterm=generac)

Trading at 55 times earnings, so the stock play has already run.  Might run a lot more.

Damn. 55?

Don't see that often from someone producing tangible manufactured goods... Usually just software companies and tech vaporware startups :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 15, 2021, 10:34:55 AM

good reliable electric power here in Iowa - and plenty of wind power

the only things that take power down are tornadoes (small area) and ice storms (larger area)

power hasn't been out for more than a few hours around here for over 15 years

usually the lights just flicker or power out for a few minutes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 15, 2021, 10:36:10 AM

Power outages have been "in the news" of course, and that tends to make "us" worry more about such things even if they really are rare events.

55x earnings is not my cup of tea.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 15, 2021, 10:51:08 AM

not much news of any sort out of Iowa

That's good news

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on September 16, 2021, 12:55:26 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 15, 2021, 10:34:55 AM

good reliable electric power here in Iowa - and plenty of wind power

the only things that take power down are tornadoes (small area) and ice storms (larger area)

power hasn't been out for more than a few hours around here for over 15 years

usually the lights just flicker or power out for a few minutes

Interesting observation. When I lived in Tallahassee in the early 1980s, which had municipal power, it seemed like the power would go off about every two weeks or so. I knew I was a bit closer to living in a developing country. The power was off much more so than when I lived in Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota.
That said, in 1990 or 91 we lost power for 3-days in Des Moines after an ice storm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 16, 2021, 08:37:12 AM

We've lost power here more often than in Cincy, sometimes it's a car hitting a pole.  Usually the outage is 1-2 hours.  We have a BUG to power elevators and emergency lighting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 10:10:02 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 15, 2021, 10:34:55 AM

good reliable electric power here in Iowa - and plenty of wind power

the only things that take power down are tornadoes (small area) and ice storms (larger area)

power hasn't been out for more than a few hours around here for over 15 years

usually the lights just flicker or power out for a few minutes

when a major hurricane hits folks can be without power for over 2 weeks

been there it aint fun

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 10:13:30 AM

when the power goes out over a wide spread hurricane area its restored on a priority basis

hospitals and police and fire stations

intersections signal lights

restaurants and home depot type businesses

last is home owners

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 16, 2021, 10:17:16 AM

No natural gas here. We are having a 500 gallon propane tank installed to power the Generac.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 10:36:24 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 16, 2021, 10:17:16 AM

No natural gas here. We are having a 500 gallon propane tank installed to power the Generac.

thats a really big tank

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:38:41 AM

just an average tank around here, but we use them for heating fuel and water heaters

more reliable that the city gas line, because you're in control of keeping it full

probably keep a small generator going for a month

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2021, 10:40:44 AM

Zero reliability issues with natural gas lines here.  I much prefer it over propane, because I don't have to keep my tank full.

I even converted over our propane grill in the outdoor kitchen, to natural gas.  I don't use it, but the i s c & a aggie wife likes to grill veggies and kabobs on it from time to time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 10:40:50 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:38:41 AM

just an average tank around here, but we use them for heating fuel and water heaters

more reliable that the city gas line, because you're in control of keeping it full

not too big for a main power source but for backup it seems a bit much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:42:08 AM

yup, city gas lines are pretty reliable, but in places like Texas and Florida where they're not prepared for sub-zero temps, valves could freeze

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 10:43:18 AM

Quote from: utee94 on September 16, 2021, 10:40:44 AM

Zero reliability issues with natural gas lines here.  I much prefer it over propane, because I don't have to keep my tank full.

I even converted over our propane grill in the outdoor kitchen, to natural gas.  I don't use it, but the i s c & a aggie wife likes to grill veggies and kabobs on it from time to time.

never had a problem with natural gas either

our house heating uses it 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 10:44:11 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:42:08 AM

yup, city gas lines are pretty reliable, but in places like Texas and Florida where they're not prepared for sub-zero temps, valves could freeze

again this has never happened to me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:46:57 AM

well, what happened to your grid last winter had never happened either

that's why folks are buying generators

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2021, 10:48:14 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:42:08 AM

yup, city gas lines are pretty reliable, but in places like Texas and Florida where they're not prepared for sub-zero temps, valves could freeze

We just experienced our worst case scenario in February, and my city natural gas flowed strong and plentiful the entire time.  Good thing too, because at one point I had 4 families camped out in my home.

Some of the natural gas based power plants had issues, though.  They should probably correct those.  There are natural gas-fired power plants all across the midwest and northeast, so they should probably follow whatever their procedures are for proper winterization.

(https://i.imgur.com/af1gNwi.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2021, 10:49:09 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:46:57 AM

well, what happened to your grid last winter had never happened either

that's why folks are buying generators

Even with what happened last winter, city natural gas had no issue.  I mean, I suppose it could happen again, but I hear the globe is warming so probably not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 16, 2021, 10:53:44 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 10:36:24 AM

thats a really big tank

2 weeks, or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 11:55:12 AM

I have not seen anything as of late on what Texas is doing to avoid the cluster f**k

we had last Feb

I hope they are hard at it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 12:40:36 PM

hah, they are hard at milking the system for dollars

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2021, 12:47:23 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 16, 2021, 11:55:12 AM

I have not seen anything as of late on what Texas is doing to avoid the cluster f**k

we had last Feb

I hope they are hard at it

They identified multiple points of failure in the winterization, way back in April.  I have no idea in what ways they have addressed those failures.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2021, 08:16:20 AM

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/572765-global-temperatures-would-still-increase-27-degrees-under-current

So the impracticable is insufficient, duh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2021, 06:48:24 PM

WaterBear is the first interactive streaming platform dedicated to the future of our planet. Whatever you feel passionately about in the world of climate action, biodiversity, sustainability, community, diversity and more, WaterBear provides access to award-winning and inspirational content that empowers members to dive deeper, learn more, and take action.

https://join.waterbear.com/ (https://join.waterbear.com/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2021, 07:59:04 AM

I see countries are having another meeting about methane to make pledges few will meet.  It's a political game, to me, they want to be seen as doing something while doing very little beyond some PR.  The real problems we have because folks play games with them instead of laying out what is neccessary to solve them blaming the other party for eventual inaction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on September 22, 2021, 09:19:56 PM

Welcome to the future, where every building is very white

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/8378579002?__twitter_impression=true

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 11:25:51 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2021, 09:19:56 PM

Welcome to the future, where every building is very white

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/8378579002?__twitter_impression=true

Purdue, doing the hard work for the world as usual...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 23, 2021, 08:30:23 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — In what officials call a key step to combat climate change, the Environmental Protection Agency is sharply limiting domestic production and use of hydrofluorocarbons, highly potent greenhouse gases commonly used in refrigerators and air conditioners.

The new rule, which follows through on a law Congress passed last year, is intended to decrease U.S. production and use of HFCs by 85% over the next 15 years, part of a global phaseout designed to slow global warming.


The rule is expected to reduce harmful emissions by the equivalent of 4.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2050, McCarthy said, a total similar to three years of emissions from the U.S. power sector.

EPA Administrator Michael Regan said the phasedown is backed by a coalition of industry groups that see it as an opportunity to “supercharge” American leadership on domestic manufacturing and production of alternative refrigerants. The industry has long been shifting to the use of alternative refrigerants and pushed for a federal standard to avoid a patchwork of state laws and regulations.


The administration said it also is taking other steps to ensure reductions in HFCs, including creation of an interagency task force to prevent illegal trade, production, use or sale of the climate-damaging gases. The task force will be led by the Department of Homeland Security, and EPA’s offices of Air and Radiation and Enforcement and Compliance Assurance.

https://apnews.com/article/epa-hydrofluorocarbon-rules-hfcs-greenhouse-gases-043715b9ee50d5a42ce0364ed28ffdff (https://apnews.com/article/epa-hydrofluorocarbon-rules-hfcs-greenhouse-gases-043715b9ee50d5a42ce0364ed28ffdff)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2021, 09:04:01 AM

White roofs is a good idea generally, but it's not going to replace air conditioners obviously.  And 90% is obviously pretty good if it's cheaper or longer lasting.

The building next to us has a white roof, it's dirty, but whitish.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2021, 09:16:39 AM

RV roofs are typically white for this reason.

Some people even paint the center roof panels of an all-aluminum Airstream white, the white paint reflects away more solar radiation than does the bare aluminum.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2021, 09:19:48 AM

School bus roofs are white around here.  I know LA experimented with painting a piece of pavement white, I viewed it as a gimmick, and it was.

I could see painting parking lots white, they really retain a lot of heat.  

I also like having a lot of trees in an urban heat island, it helps quite a bit, shade and respiration/evaporation/transpiration.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2021, 09:21:47 AM

School bus roofs here are yellow, but it would make sense to paint them white.  It must cost more...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 23, 2021, 10:09:45 AM

planting trees seems like a very good idea

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2021, 10:11:40 AM

I would like more trees planted along Interstates where there is room far enough from the traffic.  I noticed places in GA where they have removed the trees growing in the medians for some reason, it looks expensive, maybe to be replaced with better trees?

But trees can't be allowed to die and rot at the end of their lives if you want to capture the CO2.  My guess is trees are a lot better at carbon capture than our plants.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 25, 2021, 08:23:46 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gX4UZeOZ2M

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 25, 2021, 04:46:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 23, 2021, 09:19:48 AM

School bus roofs are white around here.  I know LA experimented with painting a piece of pavement white, I viewed it as a gimmick, and it was.

I could see painting parking lots white, they really retain a lot of heat. 

Or leave the snow on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2021, 09:08:46 AM

I chuckled at this, a bit, inside:

Greta Thunberg: Last 30 years of climate action amount to 'blah, blah, blah' | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/574426-greta-thunberg-last-30-years-of-climate-action-amount-to-blah-blah)


Blah blah blah.

And what has she proposed that is any more specific?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2021, 10:16:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 29, 2021, 09:08:46 AM

And what has she proposed that is any more specific?

Blah blah blah rings a bell.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2021, 05:26:48 PM

I am a bit curious how various younger folks get to their 15 minutes of "fame".  For some unfortunately, it's because they've gone missing, and we all know hundreds go missing each year and we never hear about it, but one, usually a fairly attractive young female will dominate "the news" for days.  Then you have these spokespeople for some "critical cause" who suddenly get attention and notice, I never understand why them?  I can't recall any that had any substantive message.  But they garner attention, by the "media", who look to get noticed of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 04, 2021, 10:39:16 AM

Significant size oil spill off the coast of Orange County. Beaches closed in Huntington and Laguna, and it wouldn't surprise me if Newport shortly follows suit.

Not good 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 04, 2021, 11:09:28 AM

Ugh that sucks.  Those are my favorite beaches in the Orange County/LA area.  What about Dana Point?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 04, 2021, 11:41:34 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 04, 2021, 11:09:28 AM

Ugh that sucks.  Those are my favorite beaches in the Orange County/LA area.  What about Dana Point?

So far I haven't heard anything, but this whole thing basically started late Fri night or Sat, and I didn't even hear about it until last night. 

The spill is centered around Huntington Beach. Dana Point is even one town farther south than Laguna Beach, so it's possible they're not affected. But again, the standard direction of travel of ocean currents is north-to-south, so I could potentially see them doing so out of caution if it doesn't dissipate well enough as it heads south. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 12:59:20 PM

Nobel Prize winner says governments must take 'urgent' action on climate | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/575361-nobel-prize-winner-says-governments-must-take-urgent-action-on)

OK, what comprises "urgent action"?  Notice how often someone wants something done but they offer no specifics.

There is a reason for this, what would have to happen to do much of anything positive is simply impossible, and even if a few countries take drastic steps, most will not, and two will do almost nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2021, 10:31:30 PM

OK, what comprises "must"?

there is no "must" and there won't be an "urgent action"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 08:32:57 AM

It is language folks use when they wish to sound insistent, some of them realize nothing real will happen.

Governments will throw money at the problem, basically enriching the insiders, and subsidizing wealthy folks to buy $70K EVs.  There is no coherent plan, as I keep noting, because there simply isn't one anywhere that is remotely realistic.  The path needed I've cited before is completely unrealilstic, it's laughable.  It starts with no more coal plants after 2020, and China is blowing right through that.

At great cost, western nations will do a little bit, and complain down the road that they didn't do more.

I've mentioned my own plan for the US would be to replace coal fired plants fairly quickly, I could get down with that.  Coal is nasty.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 06, 2021, 10:09:09 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 08:32:57 AM

It is language folks use when they wish to sound insistent, some of them realize nothing real will happen.

Governments will throw money at the problem, basically enriching the insiders, and subsidizing wealthy folks to buy $70K EVs.  There is no coherent plan, as I keep noting, because there simply isn't one anywhere that is remotely realistic.  The path needed I've cited before is completely unrealilstic, it's laughable.  It starts with no more coal plants after 2020, and China is blowing right through that.

At great cost, western nations will do a little bit, and complain down the road that they didn't do more.

I've mentioned my own plan for the US would be to replace coal fired plants fairly quickly, I could get down with that.  Coal is nasty.

It is my understanding that coal power plants are equipped with scrubbers that make the emissions much better environmentally 

is this not the case

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 11:02:26 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 06, 2021, 10:09:09 AM

It is my understanding that coal power plants are equipped with scrubbers that make the emissions much better environmentally

is this not the case

This reduces SO2 and NOx emissions, but not CO2, and the process generates a lot of waste.  Coal plants account for about 20% of our electricity and over 60% of the CO2 generated by electricity production.  But coal is generally nasty cradle to grave.

So, if we want to put up a good number on CO2, replace the coal fired plants as quickly as possible.  Maybe with nuclear.  Ha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 11:50:55 AM

Why Tesla's solar business has not yet taken off as Elon Musk promised (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/06/why-teslas-solar-business-has-not-yet-taken-off-as-elon-musk-promised.html)

Looks like it could be a real mess.  No solar tiles yet obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 11:52:54 AM

She lays it out pretty much as I would:

15 minutes | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/09/03/15-minutes/)

In spite of the numerous UN treaties and agreements to reduce emissions, the atmospheric CO2 concentration relentlessly continues to increase
The challenge to getting to netzero by 2050 is illustrated by this diagram from the International Energy Agency.  This figure shows the pathways for emissions reductions that the major economies need to take to reach netzero by 2050.  Europe and the US have already turned the corner, but they still have a very steep path to netzero.  By 2050, global emissions will be dominated by whatever China and India have done, or have failed to do. 
The IEA roadmap finds that there is a possible but very narrow pathway to netzero by 2050, provided that there’s a huge leap in energy innovation and major efforts to build new infrastructure.  Others find that reaching netzero by 2050 is a social and technological impossibility.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 06, 2021, 12:59:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 11:02:26 AM

This reduces SO2 and NOx emissions, but not CO2, and the process generates a lot of waste.  Coal plants account for about 20% of our electricity and over 60% of the CO2 generated by electricity production.  But coal is generally nasty cradle to grave.

So, if we want to put up a good number on CO2, replace the coal fired plants as quickly as possible.  Maybe with nuclear.  Ha.

what about this


https://energyfactor.exxonmobil.com/insights/partners/houston-ccs-hub/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=XOM+%7C+Corp+%7C+General+-+CA+%7C+Traffic+%7C+Non+Brand+%7C+Technology+%7C+CCS+Power+Plant+%7C+Phrase&utm_content=Non+Brand+%7C+Power+Plant&utm_term=power+plant+co2&ds_rl=1289360&gclid=CjwKCAjwkvWKBhB4EiwA-GHjFvte6V4y32CJjNu3iEpOgMl3QlxdUuacc8E8xHFuV_Pj4Gi6QKo97hoC6I8QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 01:59:08 PM

Carbon capture is interesting on paper, and perhaps even at a pilot scale, but I don't think it's really viable commercially, and won't  be.  Entropy and all that.

You end up putting more energy into it than it's worth.

Trees do a better job.  Kudzu even better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 06, 2021, 02:41:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 01:59:08 PM

Carbon capture is interesting on paper, and perhaps even at a pilot scale, but I don't think it's really viable commercially, and won't  be.  Entropy and all that.

You end up putting more energy into it than it's worth.

Trees do a better job.  Kudzu even better.

considering our coal reserve is massive it might be more economical then you think

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 02:43:06 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 06, 2021, 02:41:28 PM

considering our coal reserve is massive it might be more economical then you think

No, my point is you generate energy and then consume it and then some to capture CO2.  It doesn't matter how much coal we have.

Mining, disposal of fly ash, transportation of coal, dirty air, CO2, all bad things with coal.  And it COULD be replaced if "we" had any sense.  Won't be of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 06:07:32 PM

freeze warning here starting at 2am

get the leaves changing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2021, 06:11:04 PM

Close the garage door and cover the beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 06:29:13 PM

Bud Heavy won't freeze

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 15, 2021, 07:14:41 PM

It was 17 F this am here, now in Grand Lake.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 15, 2021, 07:32:51 PM

It was over 90 here today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 07:35:42 PM

17 too cold

90 too hot

was 60 here, just right

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 15, 2021, 07:59:34 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 07:35:42 PM

17 too cold

90 too hot

was 60 here, just right

Yeah, 90 is too much. 

But it should cool off to a high of 77 Sunday just in time for a round of golf.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 08:34:02 PM

75 here Sunday, I have a 3pm tee time

after the frost............, no insects, no humidity, almost like Cali

greens have been mowed for the last time

course will close in about 2 weeks, give or take

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2021, 08:38:09 AM

I like seeing this.

(https://i.imgur.com/AnwUKGJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 16, 2021, 10:00:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 08:34:02 PM

75 here Sunday, I have a 3pm tee time

after the frost............, no insects, no humidity, almost like Cali

greens have been mowed for the last time

course will close in about 2 weeks, give or take

In Texas we never close the courses so we got that goin for us

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2021, 10:11:14 AM

that's the only reason I visit

don't tell my brother

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 16, 2021, 10:21:28 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 16, 2021, 10:00:43 AM

In Texas we never close the courses so we got that goin for us

Yep. Same as in California. We play golf year-round.

It's such a shithole.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2021, 10:26:53 AM

perhaps I'll visit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2021, 10:36:36 AM

Why would you visit a shithole?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2021, 10:41:09 AM

So he can have Mdot as a tour guide?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2021, 10:49:38 AM

does Mdot play golf?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2021, 02:07:47 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2021, 10:49:38 AM

does Mdot play golf?

Dunno but evidently he's an authority on shitholes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 11:10:09 AM

@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19)  and other California homies-- looks like y'all are about to get some serious rain throughout California over the coming days.  Are there still any major fires burning?  If so, hopefully this will fall in the right places to help out.



(https://i.imgur.com/vkje4WG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 11:27:31 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 11:10:09 AM

@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19)  and other California homies-- looks like y'all are about to get some serious rain throughout California over the coming days.  Are there still any major fires burning?  If so, hopefully this will fall in the right places to help out.



(https://i.imgur.com/vkje4WG.png)

Interesting. My weather app says there's a 50% chance of rain next Monday, and that's it. Sunny or just partly cloudy every other day on the forecast. Of course the map you posted I'm down in the 0.75-1.25" prediction too, so that's probably got something to do with it. 

Orange County hasn't really had any wildfire issues this year, though, so we're ok. It looks like fire season has mostly passed as well, so that's good.

That said, we REALLY need water. This precipitation should end up being snow at higher elevations, which will help alleviate the drought. Hoping for a lot more rain this winter after this one...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 11:39:21 AM

Im not sure where utee got that cause my national radar map doesnt show anything close to that

fake news?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 11:41:48 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 11:39:21 AM

Im not sure where utee got that cause my national radar map doesnt show anything close to that

fake news?

That's a cumulative forecast over the next 168 hours (1 week). Not today's forecast or an actual radar map. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 11:42:23 AM

so, fake news

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 11:46:03 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 11:41:48 AM

That's a cumulative forecast over the next 168 hours (1 week). Not today's forecast or an actual radar map.

it sure looks scary 

must be climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 12:03:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 11:42:23 AM

so, fake news

(https://scranshums.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/tony-stark-eye-roll-gif.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2021, 01:04:41 PM

The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog – Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here’s Why (https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/10/14/the-california-version-of-the-green-new-deal-and-an-october-16-2020-epa-settlement-with-transportation-is-whats-creating-the-container-shipping-backlog-working-ca-ports-24-7-will-not-help-here/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 01:10:40 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 11:39:21 AM

Im not sure where utee got that cause my national radar map doesnt show anything close to that

fake news?

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 11:41:48 AM

That's a cumulative forecast over the next 168 hours (1 week). Not today's forecast or an actual radar map.

Yeah.

I mean, come on man, just read the legend on the graphic.   It says what it represents right there on it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 01:22:45 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 01:10:40 PM

Yeah.

I mean, come on man, just read the legend on the graphic.  It says what it represents right there on it.

Legend? We dont need no stinkin legend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 09:08:39 AM

Climate: Fossil fuel use dangerously out of sync with global targets (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/climate-fossil-fuel-use-dangerously-out-of-sync-with-global-targets.html)

Duh.

By the end of the decade, government’s production plans and projections were forecast to lead to around 240% more coal, 57% more oil and 71% more gas than would be consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The findings reaffirm the yawning gap (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/climate-global-fossil-fuel-use-accelerating-and-set-to-get-even-worse.html) between meaningful climate action and the rhetoric of policymakers and business leaders publicly touting their commitment to the so-called “energy transition.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 09:10:36 AM

In my view, there is no way to avoid whatever is coming on climate.  We might perhaps trim a few tenths of a degree with great effort and expense, but the notion of really having a significant impact with "wind and solar" is simply absurd.  I'm not saying we should make NO effort, but I do think "we" should be realistic and offer cost:benefit analyses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 11:20:05 AM

Radiative energy flux variations from 2000 – 2020 | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/10/10/radiative-energy-flux-variations-from-2000-2020/#more-27917)

Our new publication “Radiative Energy flux variation from 2001 – 2020″  (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1297)has brought to light a surprising result for climate science: the warming of the Earth in the last 20 years is mainly due to a higher permeability of clouds for short-wave solar radiation. Short-wave radiation has decreased sharply over this period (see figure), equally in the northern and southern hemispheres (NH and SH). With solar radiation remaining nearly constant, this means that more shortwave radiation has reached the Earth’s surface, contributing to warming. The long-wave back radiation (the so-called greenhouse effect) contributed only to a lesser extent to the warming. It was even largely compensated for by the likewise increasing permeability of the clouds to long-wave radiation emanating from the Earth. The authors come to this clear conclusion after evaluating the CERES radiation data.

(https://i1.wp.com/judithcurry.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-09-at-3.06.45-PM.png?resize=500%2C290&ssl=1) (https://i1.wp.com/judithcurry.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-09-at-3.06.45-PM.png?ssl=1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:22:28 AM

The authors come to this clear conclusion after evaluating the CERES radiation data.

Well, there ya go.  Just fix this and continue to burn lumps of coal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 01:40:30 PM

California Enacts Ban on Gas-Powered Lawn Mowers, Leaf Blowers

Using small, gas-powered equipment like leaf blowers and generators ends up being much worse for the environment than driving a car for the same amount of time, which is why California's Air Resources Board pushed state politicians to take action.

The new law, AB 1346, will require the state to adopt regulations around these gas-powered tools by July 1, 2022, and ban their sale by the start of 2024, if the board determines it is feasible.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38004981/california-ban-gas-powered-lawn-equipment/?utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR3zkteyi8fDqzD9F7R_SbduWOHYdZ45e2IreKmyhsFj4YB6PDpVmcIDEIg (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38004981/california-ban-gas-powered-lawn-equipment/?utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR3zkteyi8fDqzD9F7R_SbduWOHYdZ45e2IreKmyhsFj4YB6PDpVmcIDEIg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 02:05:25 PM

Is the board going to replace all of the existing tools for no charge?

If I had a large fleet landscape company, I'd probably close up shop and sell my stuff out of state, if not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 02:11:01 PM

It would ban their sale, not their use, as I read it.  And yes, one can see the obvious loophole.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on October 21, 2021, 02:22:03 PM

I switched all my tools to electric after the old gas mower went kaput. A lot quieter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 02:40:21 PM

you obviously don't have 2 acres

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 02:54:57 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 02:40:21 PM

you obviously don't have 2 acres

Neither does anyone in California :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2021, 12:44:04 PM

Oops, Boris Johnson Told the Truth About Climate - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/oops-boris-johnson-truth-climate-energy-prices-costs-11634826979?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR1T-rFVOIuCtGQcz3DhOPPj9tcLr51SyGCpj1WnQx6r3GD-oZjP_2mg4gU)

The bold plan (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-strategy) he released this week for the U.K. to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 breaks the cardinal rule of climate activism: Never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, tell the public in one go how much they’ll have to pay and how much of their ordinary lives they’ll have to change to rein in emissions.

It’s not so much that this program is quantitatively different from climate-action agendas that other governments have implemented over the years. The British government admits it doesn’t know how much it will spend on the wide range of greenhouse-gas mitigations it proposes. But then neither does anyone else. No one has managed to total Germany’s spending on its long-running energy transition, although one credible guess (https://www.bundesrechnungshof.de/en/audit-reports/products/special-reports/2018-special-reports/2018-special-purpose-report-coordination-and-steering-to-implement-energy-transition-by-the-federal-ministry-for-economic-affairs-and-energy) pegged it at €120 billion for merely the five years leading up to 2018. U.S. Democrats resisted putting a price tag on their climate fever dream, the Green New Deal.
Rather, Mr. Johnson’s plan is qualitatively distinctive in foisting substantial changes on the section of the energy market voters notice most: the proverbial last mile between the national energy system and households.


The centerpiece of his plan is a program to replace home heating systems en masse, pushing homeowners to abandon gas-fired boilers in favor of green heat pumps with some subsidy but at considerable personal expense. There’s also a vague plan to tie preferential mortgage rates to green home improvements, and dozens of other promises (or threats) such as to increase the average occupancy per vehicle on British roads, presumably by encouraging more carpooling or use of buses and the like.

One consequence is that voters seem to have startlingly little idea about what they will have to do if they want to reduce their emissions. A recent YouGov survey (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/10/19/britons-are-clueless-relative-effectiveness-action) is suggestive: British households understand they should walk or cycle instead of driving, although this isn’t actionable advice if you live outside an urban area. But they overestimate the carbon reductions they can achieve by shifting to an electric vehicle, and underestimate the reductions if they took a bus instead.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2021, 12:44:56 PM

If someone really laid out a serious plan with costs and benefits, voters would en masse just say NO.

Find another approach.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 12:50:29 PM

perhaps your next book????

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 12:55:05 PM

30 degrees and foggy here this morning

58 degrees in my hallway where the thermostat is located

broke down and turned on the electric heat pump furnace

expected high of 55

I'm going golfing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2021, 07:53:52 AM

Challenges of the clean energy transition | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/10/22/challenges-of-the-clean-energy-transition/#more-27944)

This lady seems almost completely to be ignored by policy makers, she is invited to give her perspective at times, this is one example.  My hunch is this has become 99.99% political and folks want to DO something, and politicians view this as a chance to direct money to entities they favor.  So, we throw money at it, as usual, as we have so many other issues, like poverty and education, with dubious results.

There is no real plan, one would be horrifying if it existed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2021, 10:26:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/S1XSh0n.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2021, 11:27:32 AM

Viral image: Says a wind turbine “could never generate as much energy as was invested in building it.”

PolitiFact rating: False

Here's why: Wind farms are a pillar of America’s climate change strategy. They now produce over 8% of the nation’s electricity, and their output is expected to nearly double over the next decade.

A Facebook post casts wind as a losing proposition.

"A windmill could spin until it falls apart and never generate as much energy as was invested in building it," a Sept. 16 version of the post says. This qualifies as a zombie claim. In 2019, we found an earlier version False, but it walks again.


The image is topped with a striking photo of a wind turbine on fire (it comes from a March 2020 fire in Texas) and gives some details.

"A two-megawatt windmill is made up of 260 tonnes of steel that required 300 tonnes of iron ore and 170 tonnes of coking coal, all mined, transported and produced by hydrocarbons," the post says. (We corrected several typos in the text.)


https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/2021/10/13/wind-turbine-never-generate-much-energy-cost-build/8423146002/ (https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/2021/10/13/wind-turbine-never-generate-much-energy-cost-build/8423146002/)

Our ruling
A viral image said that a wind turbine "could never generate as much energy as was invested in building it."

The claim cherry-picked a quote from a book and distorted its meaning.

Every study of the lifecycle of wind turbines finds that they produce more energy than it took to produce them. Most analyses put the energy payback period at about a year or so. The most conservative, real-world assessment we found calculated that wind turbines in Texas produced more electricity than it took to build them after about six years.

We rate this claim False.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 24, 2021, 08:44:29 PM

China on Tuesday launched a major effort to ramp up coal production and stabilize coal prices ahead of an anticipated surge in electric power demand this winter.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reportedly ordered mine operators to “produce as much coal as possible.”


https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/10/21/climate-change-china-launches-all-out-coal-production-campaign/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0xhXF88giFV0tOGl7xjV52oM971lvemsFCANdkHc5bvVDIsDxCTqbjN0A (https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/10/21/climate-change-china-launches-all-out-coal-production-campaign/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0xhXF88giFV0tOGl7xjV52oM971lvemsFCANdkHc5bvVDIsDxCTqbjN0A)

CNN noted on Wednesday that China made an effort to scale back coal production this year to placate climate change activists, but those desultory efforts simply evaporated in the face of rolling blackouts that interfered with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) industrial goals.

China’s power grid remains heavily dependent on coal and its international Belt and Road infrastructure program has littered the Third World with more coal-burning plants. China added over three times as much coal-fired generator capacity in 2020 as the rest of the world combined.

The Communist Party tried increasing the price of electricity and encouraging its subjects to reduce their power consumption, but in September the pretense of restraining coal production was quietly abandoned and coal inventories began growing again. Now the NDRC is telling mine operators to increase production by all means necessary, and outlawing shutting down any Chinese coal mine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2021, 07:41:06 AM

There is nothing we can do here in the USA to combat that. Not even close. Turn the pipelines back on and let's move forward.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2021, 10:41:08 AM

well, there's something, but that would be extreme

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on October 25, 2021, 11:20:19 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 25, 2021, 10:41:08 AM

well, there's something, but that would be extreme

yep but nuking other countries would be bad press

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 25, 2021, 11:23:17 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 24, 2021, 08:44:29 PM

China on Tuesday launched a major effort to ramp up coal production and stabilize coal prices ahead of an anticipated surge in electric power demand this winter.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reportedly ordered mine operators to “produce as much coal as possible.”


https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/10/21/climate-change-china-launches-all-out-coal-production-campaign/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0xhXF88giFV0tOGl7xjV52oM971lvemsFCANdkHc5bvVDIsDxCTqbjN0A (https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/10/21/climate-change-china-launches-all-out-coal-production-campaign/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0xhXF88giFV0tOGl7xjV52oM971lvemsFCANdkHc5bvVDIsDxCTqbjN0A)

CNN noted on Wednesday that China made an effort to scale back coal production this year to placate climate change activists, but those desultory efforts simply evaporated in the face of rolling blackouts that interfered with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) industrial goals.

China’s power grid remains heavily dependent on coal and its international Belt and Road infrastructure program has littered the Third World with more coal-burning plants. China added over three times as much coal-fired generator capacity in 2020 as the rest of the world combined.

The Communist Party tried increasing the price of electricity and encouraging its subjects to reduce their power consumption, but in September the pretense of restraining coal production was quietly abandoned and coal inventories began growing again. Now the NDRC is telling mine operators to increase production by all means necessary, and outlawing shutting down any Chinese coal mine.

I find this interesting. 

We often talk about the Chinese government playing the "long game". I.e. whereas American business is thinking one to several quarters ahead, and American government is barely thinking beyond the next election, the Chinese are planning decades ahead for economic domination.

Yet they're prioritizing energy production via coal over carbon reductions.

This must mean one of several things, or a combination:

• They don't believe in the threat of man-made climate change. I.e. perhaps they don't believe man-made climate change is real. Or they believe it's real but they don't believe there will be catastrophic consequences. 
• They believe it's real but don't care. I.e. despite us talking about them planning several decades out, they know that if they don't keep the ball rolling on modernizing their economy and raising standards of living, the people will put an end to the government. 
• They believe it's real, but they're trying to balance and pull a switcheroo down the road... I.e. coal, coal, coal right now to bring up their economy, in the hopes that it won't be too late to pivot to cleaner energy sources AFTER they've built up the economy based on coal and CO2-based energy.

What do you all think?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 25, 2021, 11:23:52 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 25, 2021, 11:20:19 AM

yep but nuking other countries would be bad press

Nuclear winter is not a good response to global warming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2021, 11:33:12 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 25, 2021, 11:23:17 AM

• They don't believe in the threat of man-made climate change. I.e. perhaps they don't believe man-made climate change is real. Or they believe it's real but they don't believe there will be catastrophic consequences.
• They believe it's real but don't care. I.e. despite us talking about them planning several decades out, they know that if they don't keep the ball rolling on modernizing their economy and raising standards of living, the people will put an end to the government.
• They believe it's real, but they're trying to balance and pull a switcheroo down the road... I.e. coal, coal, coal right now to bring up their economy, in the hopes that it won't be too late to pivot to cleaner energy sources AFTER they've built up the economy based on coal and CO2-based energy.

I think they want power and influence and stability for them in office, everything comes from that.  I'd guess they have done internal studies that CC, if really that bad, isn't really that  bad for China, say it kills of a million or so people, meh.  Meanwhile they would have achieved their goal, global hegemony in terms of influence and power.

So, it's more Item 2.  I think they also realize that any SERIOUS effort would put them back economically to the point folks would revolt.  They HAVE to maintain economic progress, it's is far more essential than is CC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2021, 11:54:23 AM

#2 - They believe it's real but don't care. I.e. despite us talking about them planning several decades out, they know that if they don't keep the ball rolling on modernizing their economy and raising standards of living, the people will put an end to the government.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2021, 11:59:40 AM

Yup, I watch a business channel in the AM before markets open.  They had on some CEO of a restaurant group (who didn't answer questions, he's like a pol) who claimed that making progress on carbon was essential to his business.

No, it's not, balderdash, beyond generating some positive PR that helps his sales and imagery.  I saw this where I worked, notably when "landfills were reaching capacity" (which was a total lie obviously).  It mattered not what we did to solve that nonproblem but it mattered a LOT that we generated positive PR as if we were DOING something.

I got into political trouble with truth over that mess.  We spent tens of millions of dollars, wasted all of it, except for the PR angle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2021, 12:03:13 PM

China doesn't seem as worried about PR

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 25, 2021, 12:05:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 25, 2021, 11:59:40 AM

Yup, I watch a business channel in the AM before markets open.  They had on some CEO of a restaurant group (who didn't answer questions, he's like a pol) who claimed that making progress on carbon was essential to his business.

No, it's not, balderdash, beyond generating some positive PR that helps his sales and imagery.  I saw this where I worked, notably when "landfills were reaching capacity" (which was a total lie obviously).  It mattered not what we did to solve that nonproblem but it mattered a LOT that we generated positive PR as if we were DOING something.

I got into political trouble with truth over that mess.  We spent tens of millions of dollars, wasted all of it, except for the PR angle.

Let the stock holders know

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2021, 12:17:08 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 25, 2021, 12:03:13 PM

China doesn't seem as worried about PR

They really are, to an extent, they make some effort at it, they like to appear  kindly etc.  Most countries do PR.

They announce solar/wind projects fairly often as if it really matters to mask their coal use etc.  But push to shove, they don't care about PR.

They care about economic progress, and anything that damages "western" economic progress.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2021, 09:46:20 AM

Electric vehicles projected to make up 31% of the global fleet by 2050 (electrek.co) (https://electrek.co/2021/10/26/electric-vehicles-projected-to-make-up-31-of-the-global-fleet-by-2050/?fbclid=IwAR3JjmgsFWJQLCn8GRK25q-YA2-UAB2J3lD-7TaX5x3EMQbQThcHGuy3ZWY)

So the split of EV growth occurs between OECD countries and non-OECD countries, according to the EIA, as it projects EV fleet shares will reach 34% in OECD countries and 28% in non-OECD countries by 2050.


This looks about right to me, barring heavy government regulation.  It takes a long time to change such a large market.

Obviously, that leaves a lot of IC vehicles operating even in 30 years if this is correct.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 10:06:21 AM

I'd guess it's a high projection

I'd guess less than 30%, maybe 25%

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 07:53:36 AM

Energy crisis: Analysts split on whether gas prices will remain high (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/energy-crisis-analysts-split-on-whether-gas-prices-will-remain-high.html)

Increased demand for NG forecast, which of course is not what climate change worriers would like.

All these hydrocarbons are going to get burned, simple as that, maybe in 20 years we'll start seeing some decline.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 08:11:54 AM

China is ramping up coal imports from Russia — but not Australia (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/china-is-ramping-up-coal-imports-from-russia-but-not-australia.html)

China imported about 3.7 million tons of thermal coal from Russia in September, according to customs data accessed through Wind Information. That’s up 28% from August and more than 230% higher than a year ago.
The surge is not a one-off. China’s imports of thermal coal from Russia have either doubled or tripled from 2020 levels every month since May. The monthly figures this year also remain well above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
“This demonstrates that China still needs the global trade system, despite its concerted efforts to reduce its dependence on trade,” said Stephen Olson, senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, a nonprofit organization focused on trade issues.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 09:22:52 AM

Biden's proposed reconciliation framework drops clean electricity program, methane fee | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/578869-bidens-proposed-reconciliation-framework-drops-clean-electricity)

President Biden (https://thehill.com/people/joe-biden) on Thursday revealed a revised reconciliation framework to House progressives that includes more than $500 billion in climate provisions but excludes several major progressive agenda items.
The framework, according to a fact sheet released by the White House, includes $320 for clean energy tax credits, which would apply to transmission and storage, manufacturing, residences and passenger/commercial vehicles.
It would also include $105 billion for environmental resilience. This figure includes funds to address the impacts of the extreme weather events that have made headlines throughout the year, such as wildfires and hurricanes. It would also provide for a Civilian Climate Corps, a major progressive climate wishlist item and one that Biden has frequently compared to President Franklin Roosevelt’s Depression-era New Deal measures.

I presume the spending is over ten years, so divide by ten, $50 billion a year for stuff.  It would be amusing to calculate how much impact that will have on CO2 generation and temperature increases.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 01:55:40 PM

DUH.

Few Big Oil climate targets have meaning: Fmr. BP CEO John Browne (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/few-big-oil-climate-targets-have-meaning-fmr-bp-ceo-john-browne.html)

• As BP CEO John Browne was an early pioneer of clean energy investing in the oil sector to confront climate change.
• He says the amount of investment each year to control climate issues will need to increase by over $2 trillion.
• He says many companies across sectors today have set science-based targets for reducing carbon, but meaningful plans are not there.

The issue isn’t limited to the energy sector. Roughly 1,800 companies have committed to Paris 2050 climate goals, but only 50% of those companies have set carbon reduction targets, and only 10% of those companies have plans to deliver.
“It’s getting the plans to deliver. It’s not just setting the targets. Those plans are in short supply everywhere,” Browne said. 
And even for companies that have plans, the plans will require increasingly large investments.
The amount invested annually will need to rise from $1.2 trillion to $3.5 trillion. “It’s a big change, and that change has to be done every year for the next decade,” Browne said.


This simply is not realistic and not going to happen.  Companies will spend some for PR and imagery.  Any company that really invests seriously in this will get walloped by competitors that don't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2021, 03:54:56 PM

funds to address the impacts of the extreme weather events that have made headlines throughout the year, such as wildfires and hurricanes. It would also provide for a Civilian Climate Corps,

---------------------------------------------------------

and what are these funds going to be spent on and what in the heck will the Civilian Corps be doing????

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 04:05:38 PM

I would guess nobody knows what the CCC will be doing, probably some vague notion of planting trees.  In reality, I'd guess it ends up being a paid semi-vacation for poorly motivated 19 year olds who want to "camp out" and score and pretend.  It'll have some enthusiasm early on of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2021, 04:53:28 PM

so, what can reasonably be done to limit wildfires and hurricanes???

throw money at them???

sacrifice a few 20 year-olds in the civilian corps

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 04:54:12 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2021, 04:53:28 PM

so, what can reasonably be done to limit wildfires and hurricanes???

throw money at them???

sacrifice a few 20 year-olds in the civilian corps

From what I've seen datawise, hurricane intensity is not increasing, and the same may be true for wildfires.


China offers no notable new environmental goals ahead of UN climate summit | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/578991-china-offers-no-notable-new-environmental-goals-ahead-of-un-climate)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on October 28, 2021, 09:37:19 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2021, 04:53:28 PM

so, what can reasonably be done to limit wildfires and hurricanes???

Stop building homes in the line of them?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2021, 09:41:59 PM

the absence of trailer parks might limit tornadoes in Iowa and Nebraska

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2021, 08:20:23 AM

Our various "leaders" are about to meet, again, about climate, and make nice noises and sign pledges that mean nothing and burn more fuel traveling with all the press corps that follows such things for photo ops.  Meanwhile, "reality" does appear finally to be seeping in in a few places, I think it will take a few more years for most of thhe media to realize this is all smoke and mirrors.

Then they will publish pieces about how "we" are falling short and need to do more because it's an URGENT CRISIS (is there any other kind?).   And "we" will throw more money at it and still end up doing almost nothing positive.

If we focused on coal, we might solve part of the problem and a few others as well.  It's not often I see something so out of whack with such obvious reality.

(https://i.imgur.com/PG3jW4C.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2021, 01:14:10 PM

Four charts that show just what's at stake at the COP26 climate summit : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/10/29/1045344199/cop26-glasgow-climate-summit)

Countries have already made pledges (https://www.npr.org/2021/04/19/986973263/faq-americas-new-promise-on-climate) to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by moving away from burning fossil fuels. But added together, those pledges don't reduce emissions enough to avoid the worst damage from climate change. Current policies put the world on track for around 4.8 degrees of warming by 2100, compared with global average temperatures in the mid-19th century.

Globally, the goal is to limit warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, which scientists say is a crucial difference (https://www.npr.org/2021/08/10/1026137992/3-things-to-know-about-what-scientists-say-about-our-future-climate). The world would still experience worsening heat waves and storms, but not as intense and dangerous. Coral reefs would have a shot at avoiding a massive die-off. But to achieve that, emissions need to fall about 45% by 2030, compared with 2010 levels. That means countries will need to commit to far more ambitious goals.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2021, 09:06:47 AM

COP26 takes on climate change at perilous time | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/579158-cop26-takes-on-climate-change-at-perilous-time)

“The COP is also really important because it comes after we have had such sobering reports from the intergovernmental panel on climate change on how far we are from achieving the goals that we need to avoid dangerous climate change,” said Jennifer Haverkamp, who served as a climate negotiator during the Obama administration. 

Needless to say, I don't find this conference to be any more important than any previous one, a lot of hot air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2021, 09:12:25 AM

Is China at the table? 

Asking for a friend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 31, 2021, 09:14:16 AM

China's at a table fashioned entirely of coal, and the tears of child laborers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2021, 09:18:29 AM

Xi is "participating" by video saying he didn't want to use that much jet fuel (not really, the last part).  It hardly matters who is there for a photo op.  Any negotiating is done by the minions beforehand.  This is for show, optics, and nothing else.

Any time they feel a need to express urgency and appear to be DOING something, they have a meeting, with photos, and make nice speeches.

And make commitments few of them can keep that wouldn't matter anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 31, 2021, 10:57:41 AM

it's just supply and demand..................

-------------------------------------------------------------------

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The world’s largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, reported $30.4 billion in third-quarter net income on Sunday, bolstered by a surge in oil prices and recovery in demand as the coronavirus pandemic eases.

Saudi Arabia’s majority state-owned oil giant Aramco, formally known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said its net income more than doubled from $11.8 billion during the same three-month period a year earlier. Last year’s figure came after profits plunged dramatically as global lockdowns slammed oil prices. Net income refers to the amount left after taxes and preferred dividends have been paid.

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser described the company’s third-quarter results as “exceptional,” a result of “increased economic activity in key markets and a rebound in energy demand,” even as supply chain bottlenecks imperiled the global economic recovery.

The 158% spike in earnings follows the global loosening of virus-induced restrictions, tightening of gas supplies and acceleration of vaccination campaigns that have pushed prices of crude sharply higher. The price of international benchmark Brent crude was trading at over $83.50 a barrel on Sunday.

Consumers and companies are using more gasoline and airplane fuel as governments relax restrictions, leading to a rally across energy markets.

“We are optimistic that energy demand will remain healthy for the foreseeable future,” Nasser said.

Crude prices have been helped by production cuts made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, which meets later this week.

As consumption picks up, the group has gradually started adding barrels back to the market, with plans to pump 400,000 more barrels a day each month through December and raise Saudi Arabia’s limit of 11 million barrels to 11.5 million next year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2021, 11:00:18 AM

OPEC certainly tries to control the supply side, and often is good at it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 31, 2021, 11:15:38 AM

11.5 million barrels doesn't seem to be good for climate change

anyone from OPEC at the G20 summit?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2021, 11:27:37 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 31, 2021, 11:15:38 AM

11.5 million barrels doesn't seem to be good for climate change

anyone from OPEC at the G20 summit?

Of course not, just G20 leaders in the main, and their underlings.

OPEC is like China, they don't care beyond some lame PR stuff.  Coal is the worst actor in all of this if we consider electricity generation alone.


Where greenhouse gases come from - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Coal is the dominant CO₂ emissions source related to electricity generation

In 2020, the electric power sector accounted for about 38% of total U.S. primary energy consumption and for about 32% of total U.S. energy-related CO₂ emissions. Coal accounted for 54% and natural gas for 44% of electric power sector CO₂ emissions. Emissions from burning petroleum fuels and non-biomass waste (mainly plastics) in waste-to-energy power plants and emissions from some types of geothermal power plants accounted for about 2% of power sector CO₂ emissions.



 (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/where-greenhouse-gases-come-from.php)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2021, 03:43:54 PM

Why has the Sun gone quiet? | Astronomy.com (https://astronomy.com/magazine/2019/08/why-has-the-sun-gone-quiet?utm_source=asyfb&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=asyfb&fbclid=IwAR1wo0Sx_UbksiUgyVGu-_ptkusPa5AI3B0mlOJiBFtSQazJ5Y73zTXWckg)

Climate physicists and climate modelers have concluded that the impact of solar variations on global temperature change in the past few decades is far less than that due to anthropogenic factors, says Nandi. Until they understand the Sun much better, solar researchers still won’t be able to definitively connect the dots between climate on terra firma and the absence or abundance of sunspots on our nearest star.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 07:43:30 AM

How the Ford F-150 Lightning Electric Truck Is so Darn Cheap (motortrend.com) (https://www.motortrend.com/news/2022-ford-f-150-lightning-affordable/?sm_id=organic_fb_MT_trueanthem&utm_campaign=&utm_medium=&utm_source=&fbclid=IwAR1uR2N41-1yImXoPm9wDb77VHTIP5gFfFDMJmffh1zubCw_laKk_wOcGYw)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 08:55:34 AM

COP26: Follow live as world leaders meet in Glasgow for climate summit (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/01/cop26-follow-live-as-world-leaders-meet-in-glasgow-for-climate-summit.html)

In effect, our "leaders" have moved to Stage Two in awareness of the obvious, "We're not doing enough."

So, they give speeches, have meetings, and make promises which are inadequate and unachievable.  But it does enable them to spend money on "stuff".

Stage Three will be recognition that "we" waited decades too late to have a realistic plan, and the only partial solution is one nobody can do.  I don't know when that occurs, no doubt after trillions have been thrown at it.

I am chagrined.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 11:53:49 AM

Faux Fuel: Can Chemistry Save Internal Combustion? (caranddriver.com) (https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a37419222/synthetic-fuel-porsche-bmw/?utm_campaign=socialflowR%26T&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&fbclid=IwAR37MJOY-gbu_6dUFvxOXCL0iB6J2KqtCW-boup5VfXIUzU4rKHf9ylxnns)

The short answer is no, not really, not on any scale.  I think batteries are the future.  No need to make electricity just to make synfuel when you can ship it directly to batteries.  Hydrogen makes more sense than this, and it doesn't make much sense to me.


Maybe in the future, like 2050, many homes will have PVs on the roof and a big battery in the house.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 01, 2021, 05:15:44 PM

The Climate summit is so deathly important that our brain dead leader can't even make it through without dozing off.

https://twitter.com/zachjourno/status/1455174496164458496?s=20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 09:19:21 PM

I don't blame him, I'd have done the same

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 09:53:11 PM

These frightening graphics show how far under water your city will be

Play with these sliders and see the extent of the potential upcoming sea level rise where you live.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90684703/these-frightening-graphics-show-how-far-underwater-your-city-will-be (https://www.fastcompany.com/90684703/these-frightening-graphics-show-how-far-underwater-your-city-will-be)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 01, 2021, 10:10:02 PM

I'm at 2500 ft, I'm good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 10:18:15 PM

I'm over 1100 feet - good

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 11:11:13 PM

I am right at a thousand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2021, 11:11:53 PM

I'll be dead and 6ft under and so will you rubes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 11:13:02 PM

my great great grandkids will be dry, if I have any grandkids

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2021, 11:27:52 PM

Water hazards for them will be a bitch

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on November 01, 2021, 11:37:14 PM

Speaking of water hazards, playing in a tough guy outing this week for cash.   From the tips,  nasty pins, and a afternoon high of 50.  Morning temps are set to be about 30.    Tee off at 11.

Teams of 3 will play scramble format with another group of 3 (sixsomes).   Paramutuel betting,  skins, and payouts for top 3 teams.   

The way I'm playing this will just be fun.  I guess the only advantage I'm bringing to the team is having years of experience in playing in these conditions.    This is pretty much every HS golf tournament we had in the spring. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 02, 2021, 12:08:22 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 11:13:02 PM

my great great grandkids will be dry, if I have any grandkids

Kind of funny that Fro is so obsessed with this climate nonsense, as he has no interest in procreating, and as such no reason to give a crap at all about what happens to this planet after he's dead. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 06:17:17 AM

The actual projected rise in sea level by 2100 is about a meter, or less, nothing really THAT dramatic of course, but I've chatted with folks who think the Statue of Liberty will be under water, a movie or something.  Now a meter rise isn't a good thing with a storm surge at the wrong time.  But that's the outer limit of the projection based on business as usual.

Like every technical issue, this one also gets highly distorted by the media and what folks think they heard.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on November 02, 2021, 08:10:34 AM

If you're looking to be scared there's better options out there than Global Warming or Climate Change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 08:13:29 AM

Yeah, that deteriorating state of our oceans looks like a possible Big Deal to me, coupled with loss of habitat on land, possible melting of permafrost, plastics in everything, the list is pretty long.  Developing countries are dependent on electricity for said development and should somehow be allowed to do that if the rest soaked up the carbon budget.  They are going to do it, India and Africa if they retain political stability for any time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 02, 2021, 09:11:11 AM

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDIRCXxXEAE-DjY?format=jpg&name=small)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:16:52 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on November 01, 2021, 11:37:14 PM

Speaking of water hazards, playing in a tough guy outing this week for cash.  From the tips,  nasty pins, and a afternoon high of 50.  Morning temps are set to be about 30.    Tee off at 11.

Teams of 3 will play scramble format with another group of 3 (sixsomes).  Paramutuel betting,  skins, and payouts for top 3 teams. 

The way I'm playing this will just be fun.  I guess the only advantage I'm bringing to the team is having years of experience in playing in these conditions.    This is pretty much every HS golf tournament we had in the spring.

good times - yes the tough guys fair better in these tournaments
I usually forgo the Budweiser and go to bourbon or rye with shots of something for anti-freeze
actually 45-50 isn't bad if it's sunny and little wind

if it's damp, cloudy, and windy - just try to survive
Good luck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 02, 2021, 09:34:17 AM

Hell with that - bet on football :victory:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 02, 2021, 09:39:20 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 11:13:02 PM

my great great grandkids will be dry, if I have any grandkids

I had read years ago some mystic or near death experiencer who saw the future said Nebraska/ Iowa and other parts of the midwest would be safe havens.There would be a big earthquake along that fault in the middle of the country that cracked like 170 yrs ago or whatever.But it's football season so the hell with all of that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2021, 10:24:10 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on November 02, 2021, 08:10:34 AM

If you're looking to be scared there's better options out there than Global Warming or Climate Change.

I personally think the biggest fears from climate change aren't rising sea levels. That's mice nuts in the grand scheme of things. 

The biggest fears are twofold:

• What happens if we hit a climate "tipping point" where feedback loops throw the globe's climate out of stasis and causes the earth's sixth mass extinction? The food chain is complex and interdependent, and we don't know what sort of outcomes would happen if it gets shaken up by climate.
• What happens if climate doesn't have such dire consequences as the above, but climate starts screwing with agriculture such that we can't manage to feed the 9+ billion people expected to be living in 2050? What if we can only feed 6-7B people? What does that do to geopolitics? Will there be war and conflict?  

I don't know the likelihood of the above. What I do know is that "worst case scenario" here is FAR worse than most people can or want to imagine. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 02, 2021, 10:27:17 AM

Solid points and hope you are mistaken

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 02, 2021, 10:28:03 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2021, 10:24:10 AM

I personally think the biggest fears from climate change aren't rising sea levels. That's mice nuts in the grand scheme of things.

The biggest fears are twofold:

• What happens if we hit a climate "tipping point" where feedback loops throw the globe's climate out of stasis and causes the earth's sixth mass extinction? The food chain is complex and interdependent, and we don't know what sort of outcomes would happen if it gets shaken up by climate.
• What happens if climate doesn't have such dire consequences as the above, but climate starts screwing with agriculture such that we can't manage to feed the 9+ billion people expected to be living in 2050? What if we can only feed 6-7B people? What does that do to geopolitics? Will there be war and conflict? 

I don't know the likelihood of the above. What I do know is that "worst case scenario" here is FAR worse than most people can or want to imagine.

The guy rooting for Earth to get wiped out by an asteroid is concerned about the runaway greenhouse effect? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 10:39:12 AM

Well he's a humane eschatologist and would prefer that the apocalypse be quick, rather than long and drawn out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 10:46:46 AM

he also didn't state that he was worried

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2021, 10:47:43 AM

Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 10:39:12 AM

Well he's a humane eschatologist and would prefer that the apocalypse be quick, rather than long and drawn out.

Exactly. Decades of societal unrest, war, mass starvation, and human misery? Complete economic breakdown. The few remaining humans [as I expect some would survive] being returned to a stone-age level existence? 

I may not like people, but I don't wish that on anyone. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 10:49:01 AM

except maybe Hoosiers and the Irish

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 02, 2021, 10:49:55 AM

Or the Husker Prick Squad 🤣

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 11:01:12 AM

Boilers don't have much to hate about the prick squad, although I was working in Logansport, IN in 1995.  Mike Alstott's senior season, reaching for the hypesman.

Flying on the corporate jet in and out of West Lafeyette

Prick Squad was close to peaking

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 02, 2021, 11:18:41 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2021, 10:47:43 AM

Exactly. Decades of societal unrest, war, mass starvation, and human misery? Complete economic breakdown. The few remaining humans [as I expect some would survive] being returned to a stone-age level existence?

I may not like people, but I don't wish that on anyone.

Yes you do. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFCbJmgeHmA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 09:07:14 AM

China leaning hard into nuclear power. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 09:23:40 AM

China is leaning hard into coal.

China's coal consumption seen rising in 2021, imports steady | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/china-coal/chinas-coal-consumption-seen-rising-in-2021-imports-steady-idUSL3N2L12A9)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 09:24:14 AM

good, if China does it well, perhaps the USA and other countries will be jealous and get the clue

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 03, 2021, 09:25:08 AM

Yup forget how many coal burning plants that are planned by them for the 3rd world

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 09:31:45 AM

Very good case to be made that China doing much more to tackle climate change compared to US, who is still nibbling around the edges

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 09:35:54 AM

China Wants To Go Carbon-Neutral — And Won't Stop Burning Coal To Get There : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/06/14/1000464866/china-has-promised-to-go-carbon-neutral-by-2060-but-coal-is-still-king)

Last year, China committed to going carbon-neutral by 2060, an ambitious undertaking for a country that still relies on coal for more than half  (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/climate-china-has-no-other-choice-but-to-rely-on-coal-power-for-now.html)its energy needs. The country has invested heavily in solar, wind and nuclear energy. Yet coal-fired heavy industry still made up (http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202104/t20210416_1816518.html) about 37% of all its economic activity last year, and some provinces are even planning to increase coal-fired power generation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 09:51:11 AM

China planning 150 new nuclear reactors. US planning 2, as far as I can tell. Goes along with the constant drumbeat in the US that building anything new or doing anything is almost impossible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 10:09:31 AM

The US has two new power reactors nearing completion (someday, hopefully).  I don't think any more are planned.  Nuclear has bad optics among many voters who want wind and solar, but not near them.

China's numbers on CO2 generation in the years ahead are really bad.  Whatever else they are doing is pretty much optics and PR, not substance.  The US has made decent progress by phasing out coal, slowly, and burning more NG.

China | Climate Action Tracker (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/#:~:text=We estimate China's emissions to,back of its recent policies.)

We estimate China’s emissions to be 13.8 GtCO2e in 2020, while its current policies projections would reach 13.2 to 14.5 GtCO2e in 2030, meaning that China is within range to overachieve its existing 2030 non-fossil and carbon intensity NDC targets off the back of its recent policies. Once again, though, we find that China's current policies are “insufficient” to meet the Paris agreements 1.5oC limit, and more consistent with a global warming of 3^oC.

Under these projections, China would also be within the range of achieving its newly proposed, but “Highly insufficient” non-fossil and renewable capacity NDC targets, representing an opportunity to enhance those draft targets before formally submitting to the UNFCCC. Forthcoming sector and climate plans from the 14th FYP are expected to give more clarity on sectoral policies and near-term climate ambition.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 10:30:24 AM

Building 150 nuclear plants is the exact opposite of optics and PR

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 03, 2021, 10:36:07 AM

Hopefully they build them a little more sturdy than the junk that they export here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 10:36:21 AM

Your response is indicative of how well the optics play with the gullible over the substance of their actual efforts.

They are building some solar and wind power as well.  But the numbers don't lie.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 10:43:05 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 10:36:21 AM

Your response is indicative of how well the optics play with the gullible over the substance of their actual efforts.

They are building some solar and wind power as well.  But the numbers don't lie.

I think the only gullible people are the ones trying to believe China is doing nothing. That was presented as a big reason we couldn't do anything, and it turns out to be a bunch of silliness. The numbers don't lie - nuclear power is essential to reducing carbon emissions - China following a common sense path here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 10:58:39 AM

planning to build 150 nuke plants and getting them up and running are two different things

now, they don't worry about if their citizens want to live next to a nuke plant, that is one big hurdle they do not have

I hope they build 200 of them and it goes very well and the rest of the world follows

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 11:53:06 AM

They could build a thousand, but unless and until they are replacing coal plants, it means nothing.  They need more electricity from all sources.  A simple figure means nothing without context.  They are still building coal plants too.  That is the critical factor, whether they are actually reducing emissions or not, and the answer very clearly is NOT.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 12:01:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 11:53:06 AM

They could build a thousand, but unless and until they are replacing coal plants, it means nothing.  They need more electricity from all sources.  A simple figure means nothing without context.  They are still building coal plants too.  That is the critical factor, whether they are actually reducing emissions or not, and the answer very clearly is NOT.

This is a raw numbers analysis, not an economic one. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 12:08:35 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 12:01:25 PM

This is a raw numbers analysis, not an economic one.

And the raw numbers are that coal is going up and is projected to go up. 

One can say that *IF* their announced plans actually come to fruition and they *ACTUALLY* do build 150 nuke plants, that might mean that after those plants are active they'll be in a much better position and can deactivate their coal plants. 

If so, kudos to them. 

But in the shorter term, it's coal, coal, coal. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 12:11:04 PM

How many coal plants are they building at the same time?  How many will they continue to operate unabated?  That's the key metric.  Coal is by a good margin the worst CO2 producer per kWhr.  So, yes, they are building some nukes including SMRs because they need a lot more power, but they are also building a lot more coal plants.  They are in no way doing better than the US, it's not remotely close.

Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside China - MINING.COM (https://www.mining.com/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-china/)

China 'built over three times as much coal plant capacity as the rest of the world in 2020' - Energy Live News (https://www.energylivenews.com/2021/02/04/china-built-over-three-times-as-much-coal-plant-capacity-as-the-rest-of-the-world-in-2020/)



China (https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/10/08/china-would-need-5-trillion-of-investments-to-be-carbon-neutral-by-2060/) built more than three times as much new coal power capacity as all the other countries in the world combined last year.
That’s according to a new survey by the San Francisco-based think tank Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and the independent organisation Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which suggests China commissioned 38.4GW of new coal plants last year.
That translates to more than one large coal plant every week.
The research, which surveyed global coal-fired units through to 31st December, also shows 73GW of new coal power projects started in China, which is five times as much as in all other countries.
The report demonstrates Chinaʼs coal fleet grew by 29.8GW in 2020, while in the rest of the world’s net capacity decreased by 17.2GW.
In addition, China was home to 85% of the 87.4GW of proposed new global coal-fired capacity in 2020.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 12:12:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 12:08:35 PM

And the raw numbers are that coal is going up and is projected to go up.

One can say that *IF* their announced plans actually come to fruition and they *ACTUALLY* do build 150 nuke plants, that might mean that after those plants are active they'll be in a much better position and can deactivate their coal plants.

If so, kudos to them.

But in the shorter term, it's coal, coal, coal.

Yes. And for us, the short term is gas, gas, gas. But they are doing something that can replace emissions and we aren't. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 12:13:12 PM

This features on issue with combating CC, the world needs MORE power, a lot more, if it is to develop further.  It's nice to have wind and solar and nuclear, but much of this needed new power is coal and NG.  Adding wind capacity is nice, but it gets outstripped by the need for more and more power from any source.  You have to look at replacement of older power stations and project how CO2 is going to evolve over time, not just how many "green" power plants get built.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 12:17:40 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 12:12:14 PM

Yes. And for us, the short term is gas, gas, gas. But they are doing something that can replace emissions and we aren't.

I suppose you really believe this to be true.  It's not.  Renewables in the US have been growing much faster than NG and will continue to do so.  Most recent capacity added here is wind and solar.  China's CO2 emissions are going up steeply, US trends are down.

(https://i.imgur.com/ImuMaJn.png)

U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last - Scientific American

 (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-wind-and-solar-installation-are-smashing-records-but-the-trend-may-not-last/)2020 U.S. Power Report Card: Good Marks for Solar & Wind | NRDC (https://www.nrdc.org/experts/christian-tae/2020-us-power-report-card-good-marks-solar-wind)


(https://i.imgur.com/v01ZEIV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 12:19:52 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/oJ4OS48.png)

Yeah, China is doing a great job, except they are not, at all, not in this universe.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 01:32:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 12:19:52 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/oJ4OS48.png)

Yeah, China is doing a great job, except they are not, at all, not in this universe. 

China is spending a half trillion on nuclear plants. What are we doing? Sending our manufacturing to China, importing products back, then saying we cut emissions

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 01:34:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 12:17:40 PM

I suppose you really believe this to be true.  It's not.  Renewables in the US have been growing much faster than NG and will continue to do so.  Most recent capacity added here is wind and solar.  China's CO2 emissions are going up steeply, US trends are down.

[img width=361.81 height=264]https://i.imgur.com/ImuMaJn.png[/img]

U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last - Scientific American

 (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-wind-and-solar-installation-are-smashing-records-but-the-trend-may-not-last/)2020 U.S. Power Report Card: Good Marks for Solar & Wind | NRDC (https://www.nrdc.org/experts/christian-tae/2020-us-power-report-card-good-marks-solar-wind)


[img width=361.81 height=235]https://i.imgur.com/v01ZEIV.png[/img]

Your own graph shows natural gas has risen faster than anything, with the hope that they will be roughly even by 2050. Hey, we can dream.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 01:34:48 PM

We aren't saying we're cutting emissions, we are doing it.  China is not, and won't be doing it either.  

To laud China AT ALL for somehow helping with climate change is just ignorant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 01:44:34 PM

Almost All New US Power Plants Built in 2021 Will Be Carbon-Free | Greentech Media (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/almost-all-new-us-power-plants-in-2021-will-be-carbon-free)

The new NG plants often are surge plants that will operate only some of the time, they are needed when you have a lot of wind and solar generating capacity in an area.  China of course is building many new coal fired plants, the US is building zero.

China and to a lesser extent India and developing nations are where the CO2 problem exists in the main.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 01:49:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 01:34:48 PM

We aren't saying we're cutting emissions, we are doing it.  China is not, and won't be doing it either. 

To laud China AT ALL for somehow helping with climate change is just ignorant.

China roughly half of US emissions on a per capita basis

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 02:00:36 PM

yes, but China is trying to change that

by building coal plants

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 04:32:30 PM

At COP26, Modi pledges net-zero emissions but India isn't quitting coal : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/11/03/1051805674/modi-india-cop26-coal-renewable-energy)

By 2070.  A promise from a politician to get somewhere by 2070.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on November 03, 2021, 08:37:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 04:32:30 PM

At COP26, Modi pledges net-zero emissions but India isn't quitting coal : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/11/03/1051805674/modi-india-cop26-coal-renewable-energy)

By 2070.  A promise from a politician to get somewhere by 2070.

I have a whole bunch of work to do on the house with a similar timeline

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 10:09:29 PM

A politician who promises a result well outside his tenure in office is, well, silly in my view.  At best, he could offer a realistic plan, at best, but that won't happen. 

No plans exist.  Anywhere.  I've looked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2021, 08:04:02 AM

Well, I'm glad to hear this last meeting was a success, somehow, and worth all the investment.  I'm less clear on what of substance happened, but I'm sure the speeches were thrilling.  Whenever the next meeting happens I expect a lot more whining about how 'we" are getting behind in our commitments and need to step it up, and then life goes on as before.  I suppose the publicity to some extent creates political will to throw more money at it.

Vaguely and with no plan.  There is a reason no one has a plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 04, 2021, 08:15:18 AM

The plan will probably be following China, again. Not only are they committing to nuclear energy, they are clearly trying to make it an economic prize - they are pretty much the only country that seems intent on innovating on nuclear energy. Also committed to a fusion reactor, like everyone else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2021, 08:29:20 AM

Unfortunately, the main fusion effort, ITER, seems heavily bogged down and is rather widely criticized.  Fusion power remains decades away at best.

China is also committed to coal, as is India, which is not a positive thing.  Their CO2 generation will continue to go up for years.  They aren't going to sacrfice economic growth for CO2 reductions.

And of course, nuclear seems off the table in Western countries, most of which claim they are going to shut them down, not build more.

On 30 May 2011, the German government announced a plan to shut all nuclear reactors by 2022. Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen stated of the decision, "It's definite. The latest end for the last three nuclear power plants is 2022. There will be no clause for revision".

Japan is moving the same way and a fair number of older power reactors in the US are due to be closed.  The SMRs are certainly interesting as an approach and COULD change some of this, but they are "small" and still in the future.  We need some base load power to support wind and solar, and it's either NG turbines or nuclear, or both, I think it has to be both, but nuclear isn't happening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 04, 2021, 08:43:33 AM

Germany is an interesting place - they have made a strong commitment to solar and wind and such. But their prices are the highest in the world. Good for limiting emissions, but hard to say that feels very sustainable. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2021, 02:03:20 PM

Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century | Nature Communications (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2021, 02:39:44 PM

UN's Patricia Espinosa warns of 'catastrophic' consequences of inaction (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/04/uns-patricia-espinosa-warns-of-catastrophic-consequences-of-inaction.html)


“Of course, we’re coming to this conference with the clear message that the numbers we have in terms of emissions are not good,” she added. “So that means that we really must come out of here with clarity on how we are going to move forward.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2021, 06:33:50 PM

Climate change report: Earth has 11 years to avoid the worst scenarios : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1052267118/climate-change-carbon-dioxide-emissions-global-carbon-budget)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 04, 2021, 06:57:51 PM

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) projects that fossil emissions in 2021 will reach 36.4bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), only 0.8% below their pre-pandemic high of 36.7GtCO2 in 2019.

The researchers say they “were expecting some sort of rebound in 2021” as the global economy bounced back from Covid-19, but that it was “bigger than expected”.

While fossil emissions are expected to return to near-record levels, the study also reassesses historical emissions from land-use change, revealing that global CO2 output overall may have been effectively flat over the past decade.

The 2021 GCP almost halves the estimate of net emissions from land-use change over the past two years – and by an average of 25% over the past decade.

These changes come from an update to underlying land-use datasets that lower estimates of cropland expansion, particularly in tropical regions. Emissions from land-use change in the new GCP dataset have been decreasing by around 4% per year over the past decade, compared to an increase of 1.8% per year in the prior version.

However, the GCP authors caution that uncertainties in land-use change emissions remain large and “this trend remains to be confirmed”.

The GCP study, which is not yet peer-reviewed, is the 16th annual “global carbon budget”. The budget also reveals:

China and India both surpassed their 2019 emission peaks in 2021. Chinese emissions grew by 5.5% between 2019 and 2021, while Indian emissions grew by 4.4%.
Chinese coal use was a particularly large driver of the global rebound in emissions, with the power and industry sectors in China the main contributors.
Coal, oil and gas all fell during the pandemic, but both coal and gas emissions have already surpassed their pre-pandemic levels, with a 2% increase in gas emissions and a 1% increase in coal emissions between 2019 and 2021.
Oil emissions remain around 6% below 2019 levels and this persistent reduction is one of the main reasons 2021 emissions did not set a new record.
The new updates to global CO2 emissions in the GCP substantially revise scientists’ understanding of global emissions trajectories over the past decade. The new data shows that global CO2 emissions have been flat – if not slightly declining – over the past 10 years.

However, falling land-use emissions have counterbalanced rising fossil CO2 emissions, and there is no guarantee these trends will continue in the future. 


https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-co2-emissions-have-been-flat-for-a-decade-new-data-reveals (https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-co2-emissions-have-been-flat-for-a-decade-new-data-reveals)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2021, 10:16:55 AM

Sam Altman puts $375 million into fusion start-up Helion Energy (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/sam-altman-puts-375-million-into-fusion-start-up-helion-energy.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 05, 2021, 10:18:27 AM

Really interesting piece in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/11/how-bad-will-climate-change-get/620605/

One passage that really stuck out to me:

Quote

It is hard to know how to feel. A future of possibly 5 degrees Fahrenheit of warming seems like an unknown country. Is it a civilization-ending crisis? Or is it a more familiar version of awful—a bit sweatier, more chaotic, and less just than the world we currently inhabit?

Brian O’Neill (https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/brian-oneill-named-new-director-joint-global-change-research-institute), the director of the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between the U.S. Department of Energy and the University of Maryland at College Park, has a clearer view of this question than most of us. He was one of the lead architects of the five different futures—called “shared socioeconomic pathways,” or SSPs—developed for the latest IPCC report (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf).

These five futures aren’t just versions of 2100 at different temperatures. Each started with a different idea about how society might develop (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marc-Levy-7/publication/272423967_The_roads_ahead_Narratives_for_shared_socioeconomic_pathways_describing_world_futures_in_the_21st_century/links/5e7dd26f458515efa0adb82b/The-roads-ahead-Narratives-for-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-describing-world-futures-in-the-21st-century.pdf). The SSP 1 pathway, which keeps us under that 1.5-degree-Celsius goal, for example, is the “Sustainability” path. In this scenario, the global economy still expands, but humanity “shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being, even at the expense of somewhat slower economic growth over the longer term.” The highest-temperature scenarios are SSP 4, in which inequality accelerates to even more grotesque levels, but advanced technology zaps some emissions, and SSP 5, where the world simply charges forward with fossil-fuel-powered turbo-capitalism.

The path we seem to be on, at least for now, looks closer to SSP 2, which the authors call “Middle of the Road.” This is a world in which “social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns.” A world, in other words, in which we do not heroically rise to the occasion to fix things, but in which we also don’t get much worse than we already are.

So what does this SSP 2 world feel like? It depends, O’Neill told me, on who you are. One thing he wants to make very clear is that all the paths, even the hottest ones, show improvements in human well-being on average. IPCC scientists expect that average life expectancy will continue to rise, that poverty and hunger rates will continue to decline, and that average incomes will go up in every single plausible future, simply because they always have. “There isn’t, you know, like a Mad Max scenario among the SSPs,” O’Neill said. Climate change will ruin individual lives and kill individual people, and it may even drag down rates of improvement in human well-being, but on average, he said, “we’re generally in the climate-change field not talking about futures that are worse than today.”

Very interesting that the people arguing hard for reduced emissions basically say that if we do essentially nothing, i.e. patchwork window-dressing on curbing emissions but not heroic action, things won't really change much. 


Even in the worst scenarios, the future on average is better than today. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2021, 10:40:26 AM

China's coal shortage eases after Beijing steps in, CBA report shows (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/02/chinas-coal-shortage-eases-after-beijing-steps-in-cba-report-shows.html?recirc=taboolainternal)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 05, 2021, 10:58:27 AM

perhaps China was planing 150 nuke plants because of the coal shortage?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2021, 11:46:33 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 05, 2021, 10:58:27 AM

perhaps China was planing 150 nuke plants because of the coal shortage?

In part, yes, they want to have energy from a lot of sources, including of course coal.  They import a lot of coal now, that isn't desirable for them.

But they will end up with a higher CO2 emissions track with 150 new nukes of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on November 05, 2021, 12:42:13 PM

Quote

But they will end up with a higher CO2 emissions track with 150 new nukes of course.

Heck of a lot lower than otherwise

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 05, 2021, 12:57:45 PM

The World Bank has been working on developing a concept called the Climate Warehouse, which is basically using blockchain to allow individual countries to put their own carbon registry data into a decentralized, trusted, and immutable system. 

Explained in this video: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2019/12/02/the-world-bank-group-climate-warehouse


Some of you may be familiar with the cryptocurrency, Chia. Most probably not because you're not in the HDD industry like me lol. 

Chia is working with the World Bank on this and it was just announced, to be the underlying blockchain supporting this initiative. 

https://twitter.com/BloombergLive/status/1456652076226945026?s=20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 08, 2021, 06:39:24 PM

(https://frinkiac.com/meme/S06E25/809257.jpg?b64lines=IFNJTkNFIFRIRSBCRUdJTk5JTkcgT0YKIFRJTUUgTUFOIEhBUyBZRUFSTkVEIFRPCiBERVNUUk9ZIFRIRSBTVU4u)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2021, 02:00:20 PM

Breaking - Fusion Recedes Into Far Future For The 57th Time (cleantechnica.com) (https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/09/breaking-news-fusion-recedes-into-far-future-for-the-57th-time/?fbclid=IwAR0_ZWgZQAIf_RKlBuKDZVeH_7_HxeNIKzJxagieOd9P6al3dYWTTbhR9dw)

I saw some piece on CBS complaining about how little progress was made at the latest conference.

DUH.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 02:03:38 PM

an inch or so of snow there overnight, 30-40 mph winds, 30 degrees

guess I'll wait until Tuesday to play golf, forecast of 67 degrees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 12, 2021, 02:08:39 PM

Really annoyed by the weather right now. Two days in a row, in November, in the 90 degree range. 

And a high of 88 predicted on Sunday when I play golf. At least we tee off at 8:00 AM, so it shouldn't get toasty until the back nine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 02:20:41 PM

send it this way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2021, 09:56:44 AM

The Next Environmental Crisis | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/11/11/the-next-environmental-crisis/#more-28018)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2021, 05:46:25 AM

"By 2030 in the United States, we won’t have coal," Kerry told Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwait during an interview (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-09/u-s-won-t-have-coal-by-2030-john-kerry-predicts-in-glasgow?srnd=politics-vp&sref=ohmtMHdW) at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. "We will not have coal plants."





I do not believe this at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on November 14, 2021, 09:19:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 14, 2021, 05:46:25 AM

"By 2030 in the United States, we won’t have coal," Kerry told Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwait during an interview (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-09/u-s-won-t-have-coal-by-2030-john-kerry-predicts-in-glasgow?srnd=politics-vp&sref=ohmtMHdW) at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. "We will not have coal plants."





I do not believe this at all.

yep thats crap

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on November 14, 2021, 10:14:07 AM

By 2030?  Like, about 8 years from now?

Lulz.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2021, 10:50:29 AM

I'm not even sure I believe Kerry  said that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 14, 2021, 10:52:02 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 14, 2021, 10:50:29 AM

I'm not even sure I believe Kerry  said that

He's a dullard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2021, 10:54:40 AM

Chinese Scientists Say They’ve Discovered Cheap New Way to Do Nuclear Fusion

They’re using tiny cones made of gold to do it.

https://futurism.com/china-cheap-nuclear-fusion (https://futurism.com/china-cheap-nuclear-fusion)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2021, 08:03:40 AM

Manchin set to make or break Biden's climate pledge | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/581476-manchin-set-to-make-or-break-bidens-climate-pledge)

Politicians make promises and later can't get them fulfilled.  Film at eleven.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2021, 10:10:12 AM

The Lucid Air Is the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year (https://www.motortrend.com/news/lucid-air-2022-car-of-the-year/?fbclid=IwAR2u2RNcFMyqRYDFQiyMZxL3RSltj8utxJhlf4R-pSZcamLbxhr-BfWJ7rM)

Kinda quick, I don't particularly like MT as a car mag.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2021, 10:29:58 AM

hah, but you're loving MT as a car mag if you invested in Lucid stock!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2021, 10:39:11 AM

Yup, I'm glad they did it, I just have found MT to be less, um, critical than R&T and C&D.

Lucid stock is not moving on this "news".  I think investors realize it's a gimmick to sell mags.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2021, 07:34:34 AM

Will U.S. ever put a price on carbon as part of climate change policy? (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/15/will-us-ever-put-a-price-on-carbon-as-part-of-climate-change-policy.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2021, 07:38:53 AM

Shares of EV start-up Lucid jump on new reservations, 2022 production (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/15/shares-of-ev-start-up-lucid-jump-on-new-reservations-2022-production.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2021, 01:34:03 PM

Climate Pledges Fall Dangerously Short of the 1.5 °C Target | WIRED (https://www.wired.com/story/cop26-climate-change-targets/?fbclid=IwAR1NrxWuCxyXNVWblCDx6NuZ2ZqYYGznQGagaXJ6LIf_wysW8ioo1x9p5XY)

And of course the pledges are just that, and unlikely to be met anyway.

We need to cut emissions by around 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030 to stay on track and limit temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the IPCC. But current short-term pledges line up to a 14 percent rise by 2030. (https://unfccc.int/news/cop26-update-to-the-ndc-synthesis-report) Far stronger action is needed now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2021, 01:40:43 PM

Bill Gates' TerraPower builds its first nuclear reactor in a coal town (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/bill-gates-terrapower-builds-its-first-nuclear-reactor-in-a-coal-town.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on November 17, 2021, 02:14:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 17, 2021, 01:40:43 PM

Bill Gates' TerraPower builds its first nuclear reactor in a coal town (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/bill-gates-terrapower-builds-its-first-nuclear-reactor-in-a-coal-town.html)

Bill Gates is the anti-christ.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2021, 04:19:18 PM

https://app.electricitymap.org/map (https://app.electricitymap.org/map)

Mapping the Climate Impact of Electricity

electricityMap is a live visualization of where your electricity comes from and how much CO2 was emitted to produce it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 11:12:54 PM

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — The area deforested in Brazil’s Amazon reached a 15-year high after a 22% jump from the prior year, according to official data published Thursday.

The National Institute for Space Research’s Prodes monitoring system showed the Brazilian Amazon lost 13,235 square kilometers of rainforest in the 12-month reference period from Aug. 2020 to July 2021. That’s the most since 2006.

The 15-year high flies in the face of Bolsonaro government’s recent attempts to shore up its environmental credibility, having made overtures to the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden and moved forward its commitment to end illegal deforestation at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow this month. The space agency’s report, released Thursday, is dated Oct. 27 — before talks in Glasgow began.

The Brazilian Amazon hadn’t recorded a single year with more than 10,000 square kilometers of deforestation in over a decade before Jair Bolsonaro’s term started. in Jan. 2019. Between 2009 and 2018, the average was 6,500 square kilometers. Since then, the annual average leapt to 11,405 square kilometers, and the three-year total is an area bigger than the state of Maryland.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2021, 10:00:34 AM

Global demand for crude oil (including biofuels) in 2020 fell to 91 million barrels per day and is projected to increase to 96.5 million barrels per day in 2021.Au

The volume of a barrel of oil is quite specific and equal to about 35 imperial gallons (42 US gallons, about 159 liters). A barrel of oil is also significantly heavy. Since average domestic crude oil weighs about 7.21 pounds per gallon, a barrel of oil weighs around 300 pounds or about 136 kilograms.

The average carbon dioxide coefficient of distillate fuel oil is 430.80 kg CO2 per 42-gallon barrel (EPA 2020). The fraction oxidized to CO2 is 100 percent (IPCC 2006).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2021, 10:28:33 AM

Illinois' nuclear power subsidy of $694 million: imperfect compromise (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/20/illinois-nuclear-power-subsidy-of-694-million-imperfect-compromise.html)

Irony alert.

• llinois legislators agreed to spend up to $694 of taxpayer money over the next five years to keep a handful of nuclear power plants open.
• The operator of the plants, Exelon, said they were losing hundreds of millions of dollars and that nuclear can’t compete with cheap natural gas and subsidized wind and solar.
• Critics say that Exelon had the state over a barrel and that longer-term solutions are necessary to make clean energy cheaper and more accessible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2021, 10:29:54 AM

hope it was state dollars and not federal (mine)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2021, 12:07:21 PM

Climate: How to navigate the energy transition away from fossil fuels (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/22/climate-how-to-navigate-the-energy-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels.html)

I'd love to see the rough outline of a notional plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 12:12:05 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p526x296/258719815_2005634749621982_8500359205799405534_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=OVjxYDoM1nwAX-KD13B&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=97e82ba0c5a3ac476c76f48b4c616b8f&oe=61A02405)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2021, 12:18:52 PM

COP26 Prepared the World to Beat Climate Change - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/cop26-prepared-the-world-to-beat-climate-change-global-warming-emissions-glasgow-11637526170?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR3r-_fbQHHW_1QOtCK1pX5OeWWMixFeMm3-WiymZv6I08RYoJ9Hv_pqHWE)

Um, yeah, there is a gap between promises of action and needed actions, and promises of course won't get fulfilled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 08:14:35 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/B8FSa5V.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 08:19:36 AM

The Chevy Bolt has/had that problem, and it happens with other EVs but rarely, I think.

It's probably not a real factor in assessing their overall environmental impact.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 08:26:45 AM

Well the older some of these new vehicles get may be more telling.I'd imagine it's the cheap cables/wiring.Cracks me up everyone buys strings of LED christmas lights.When the wires in the lines are as thin as a strand of hair and break all the same rendering the benefits of purchase moot

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 09:04:48 AM

I suspect/hope it's fixable.  I think it's battery related, not wiring, in general.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 05:15:00 PM

Kalashnikov Enters The World Of Electric Cars With A Bang | CarBuzz (https://carbuzz.com/news/kalashnikov-enters-the-world-of-electric-cars-with-a-bang?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=carbuzz-facebook&utm_content=post)

(https://i.imgur.com/ksPzQ97.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 05:22:10 PM

Called Kalashnikov prolly a jab/copy of Tesla

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 05:40:49 PM

Why do so many electric car designs look so fugly?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 08:31:22 PM

don't look electric or much like a car

my gas golf cart might be about the same size

and have better range

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2021, 07:11:32 AM

The Arctic Ocean was warming decades earlier than previously thought, new research shows - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/us/arctic-ocean-early-warming-climate/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2021, 12:46:48 PM

For all you golfers Houston at present has cloudless skies wind out of the southwest at 4 mph and 70 degrees

FORE!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 01:14:57 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 01, 2021, 12:46:48 PM

For all you golfers Houston at present has cloudless skies wind out of the southwest at 4 mph and 70 degrees

FORE!!

You really don't seem to understand how the "Don't Move Here" campaign works...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2021, 01:28:35 PM

Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 01:14:57 PM

You really don't seem to understand how the "Don't Move Here" campaign works...

Ok Ok 
we also get hurricanes
just not right now

is that better

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 01:43:55 PM

You could mention the roaming gangs of organ-harvesters, or the inside-out green mist.

Also, no beer allowed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2021, 02:09:37 PM

Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 01:43:55 PM

You could mention the roaming gangs of organ-harvesters, or the inside-out green mist.

Also, no beer allowed.

I dont think anyone would believe Houston is dry

How bout the only music allowed is country western

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2021, 02:13:27 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 01, 2021, 01:28:35 PM

Ok Ok
we also get hurricanes
just not right now

is that better

Red Ants,bad beer,string longhorn beef and greedy gringos 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2021, 02:25:38 PM

The Atlantic hurricane season seemed mild.

Active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov) (https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/active-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-officially-ends)

NOAA predicted 13-20 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes. They also projected 3-5 major hurricanes (hurricanes of category 3 strength or stronger). Scientists at NOAA said there was a 60% chance that Hurricane Season 2021 would feature above-normal activity.

The active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially concludes today having produced 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), including seven hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater) of which four were major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on December 02, 2021, 08:46:31 AM

Pretty good job on the prediction.  I'll have to remember that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 08:48:45 AM

Yeah, I agree, for a change, though we didn't have a major storm causing major damage to the US so the news was muted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2021, 09:24:25 AM

Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 01:43:55 PM

You could mention the roaming gangs of organ-harvesters, or the inside-out green mist.

Also, no beer allowed.

the well informed know this is only in and around Austin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2021, 10:29:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 08:48:45 AM

Yeah, I agree, for a change, though we didn't have a major storm causing major damage to the US so the news was muted.

Louisiana got pounded.

There will never be another hurricane to hit Florida, now that I have impact windows and a whole-house generator.

That's how stuff works with me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2021, 10:39:45 AM

the entire state thanks you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2021, 10:40:00 AM

(https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/carbon-emissions-per-capita-country.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2021, 10:41:23 AM

Leaders in Per Capita CO2 Emissions
Oil-producing countries in the Middle East are the highest emitters of CO2 on a per capita basis, but developed countries like the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, and Canada also have some of the higher rates of per capita emissions.

Rank Country or Region Carbon Emissions Per Capita (t/year)
#1 Middle East A* 19.5
#2 Canada 15.2
#3 Saudi Arabia 14.5
#4 United States 14.4
#5 Australia & New Zealand 13.6
#6 Russia 11.4
#7 South Korea 11.3
#8 Kazakhstan & Turkmenistan 11.2
#9 Taiwan 10.8
#10 Japan 8.4
Global Average 4.4
*Middle East A group includes Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

Canada and the United States have per capita carbon footprints of 15.2 and 14.4 tonnes per year, respectively. Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand combine for an average per capita footprint of over 13.6 tonnes per year.

It’s worth noting that all of these numbers are more than three times higher than the global average, which in 2019 was 4.4 tonnes per person.


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-per-capita-co2-emissions/ (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-per-capita-co2-emissions/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 10:49:51 AM

what really matters is not per capita

what really matters is quantity as a whole by country

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2021, 11:19:26 AM

in your considered opinion..

I provided both

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 11:19:37 AM

I disagree, I think they both matter.

We should hold China and India accountable, but at the same time, we should also recognize that we have our own problems here, and work to address them in reasonable, sensible ways.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2021, 11:46:04 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 10:49:51 AM

what really matters is not per capita

what really matters is quantity as a whole by country

What really matters is quantity. In the end, it doesn't matter what land mass surrounded by what border emissions came from.

Dealing with national governments may be a way to coordinate efforts, but in the end a CO2 molecule doesn't carry a passport.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 12:19:48 PM

I like that graphic, I copied it to FB, I'll get some expected reactions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 12:37:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 12:19:48 PM

I like that graphic, I copied it to FB, I'll get some expected reactions.

pot stirrer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 02:28:59 PM

Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 11:19:37 AM

I disagree, I think they both matter.

We should hold China and India accountable, but at the same time, we should also recognize that we have our own problems here, and work to address them in reasonable, sensible ways.

yes the US could reduce its 15% world contribution of carbon emissions down to zero and other then destroying our way of life it will make no difference

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 02:35:53 PM

I think we can make some prudent steps, but we won't, we'll throw money at it and then wonder why it didn't help.

"We" have chosen sides, either it's THE crucial emergency issue facing us OR it's a made up nothing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 03:01:54 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 02:28:59 PM

yes the US could reduce its 15% world contribution of carbon emissions down to zero and other then destroying our way of life it will make no difference

The city of Los Angeles could reduce its emissions and the air would be cleaner and healthier.  You're acting like we don't have major issues with pollution in the USA, and that's a really silly take, because it's completely wrong.

The first time I ever went to Chicago, I found I could stare directly at the sun at midday without there being a cloud in the sky.  The locals had no idea that this wasn't normal or right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 04:37:59 PM

big difference between cleaning up environmental problems in major cities and having a blanket carbon emissions reduction program

Im as much for clean air and water as the next guy what Im not for is destroying our current energy industries 

China is just sitting back and laughing at us and the direction our current leaders are trying to take us

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 04:44:58 PM

I never mentioned a blanket carbon emissions program.  That bit is all you.

I'm saying that looking at the per capita emissions is demonstrative, in showing that we are one of the countries causing the most damage to our own environment and our own people.  We need to be looking at that, and not just the total numbers, which as you point out we can't do anything about.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 05:01:40 PM

Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 04:44:58 PM

I never mentioned a blanket carbon emissions program.  That bit is all you.

I'm saying that looking at the per capita emissions is demonstrative, in showing that we are one of the countries causing the most damage to our own environment and our own people.  We need to be looking at that, and not just the total numbers, which as you point out we can't do anything about.

carbon emissions and environmental pollution are not necessarily the same or to say it another way while carbon emissions are included in smog it has little to do with many other types of pollution

carbon emissions can be measured on its own and to say we have a more serious problem then China due to our population size is just unrealistic

I never said we cant do anything about carbon emissions but if the US did what it would take to reduce carbon emissions to a meaningful lever with no support from China India and others it would be a waste of effort and would just reduce our standard of living with no reward

in the meantime yes we should strive to target existing pollution and clean it up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 05:10:09 PM

Shut coal plants with a solid plan to replace that power.  Biggest bang for the buck across the board.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 05:16:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 05:10:09 PM

Shut coal plants with a solid plan to replace that power.  Biggest bang for the buck across the board.

if we do that we should do it to reduce pollution not to fight global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 05:24:49 PM

It would reduce "normal" pollution, end the damage caused by coal mines and spent ash dumps and the horrendous legacy of coal usage.  It also would reduce CO2 emissions, so it's a two fer.  Even if climate change is not as bad as many fear, it would be very worthwhile IMHO.

The obvious replacement is nuclear, with spent fuel reprocessing, but that is "impractcable".  We really could do this in 10 years or so with a standardized design.  It would cost money but I think it would be worth it, better than some of the claptrap I see out of DC.  And if in 2050 we realize climate change wasn't that bad, well, we'd still be better off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 05:38:53 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 05:16:36 PM

if we do that we should do it to reduce pollution not to fight global warming

You're such an all-or-nothing talking point enthusiast.

We should do it because it will improve our quality of life and because we now know better and because it's the right thing to do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 06:40:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 05:38:53 PM

You're such an all-or-nothing talking point enthusiast.

We should do it because it will improve our quality of life and because we now know better and because it's the right thing to do.

so you agree with me we should do it to fight pollution not global warming

cause taking action just for global warming is just wasting money and cant be achieved

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 06:45:07 PM

I know Ive asked this before but dont remember the answer

by law all coal power plants have to be equipped with scrubbers

to take sulphur dioxide out of the air

do these work

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 06:45:58 PM

If we can reduce normal pollution AND CO2 at a reasonable cost, I'd do it.

We have to have reliable base load power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2021, 06:47:02 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2021, 06:45:07 PM

I know Ive asked this before but dont remember the answer

by law all coal power plants have to be equipped with scrubbers

to take sulphur dioxide out of the air

do these work

They do work, fairly well, they create a lot of waste in the process.  Sulfur dioxide of course is not the only pollutant going up the stack, and what's left after you burn the coal is pretty awful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 09:02:09 PM

Powder River Basin coal is known for its stability. Over the last decade, even as the industry contracted, its weekly spot price fluctuated by just $5 per short ton, never rising above $13.25, never sinking below $8.25. The spot price of costlier but more energy-dense Appalachian coal, meanwhile, ranged from $40 to nearly $84.

Then, on Oct. 29, Powder River Basin coal passed $14 for the first time since 2011. Two weeks later, the spot price soared to a record $30.70 per short ton.

It was still at $30.70 the next week. And again the week after that.

The stunningly high price of coal is largely the consequence of a supply and demand mismatch in the natural gas market, where demand has continued to exceed supply in the wake of COVID-19 lockdowns, propelling natural gas to its highest sustained price since 2014.


“Over the last decade, gas prices have been stubbornly low — I mean, they’ve been below $2,” said Travis Deti, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association. “And utilities have been relying on their natural gas resources.”

The market price of natural gas is more variable than the price of Powder River Basin coal. Electric utilities that operate both coal and gas-fired power plants can switch back and forth, and according to Deti, Wyoming’s coal becomes competitive when natural gas costs more than $2.60–$3 per million British thermal units.

The spot price of natural gas was $4.90 on Nov. 26. Between mid-September and mid-November, it remained above $5.

“Utilities are charged with providing electricity to their customers, as low as they can, and so the demand on the (Powder River Basin) has grown significantly in the last couple of months,” Deti said.

For years, U.S. utilities have increasingly substituted electricity produced from renewables and natural gas in place of coal-fired power. But power plant units burning subbituminous coal — the type mined in the Powder River Basin — made up about one-third of the close to 100 megawatts of U.S. coal capacity retired since 2011. The majority of retired capacity relied on bituminous coal from the Appalachian and Illinois basins.

Still, even though most of the power plants fueled by Wyoming coal are still operational, many face looming retirement dates. Utilities have slowly depleted their existing coal stockpiles in preparation for those closures. This September, U.S. stockpiles of subbituminous coal fell to 46.2 million tons — their lowest in more than a decade.


https://kearneyhub.com/news/state-and-regional/price-of-wyoming-coal-jumps-to-unprecedented-high/article_e468863e-4b48-5b13-bc4a-5be8186fec2b.html (https://kearneyhub.com/news/state-and-regional/price-of-wyoming-coal-jumps-to-unprecedented-high/article_e468863e-4b48-5b13-bc4a-5be8186fec2b.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 09:59:56 PM

OPEC and allied oil-producing countries have decided to maintain the amount of oil they pump to the world even as the new omicron variant casts a spikey shadow of uncertainty over the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Officials from OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, and their allies, led by Russia, voted Thursday to stick with a pre-omicron pattern of steady, modest monthly increases in oil releases – a pace that has frustrated the United States and other oil-consuming nations as gasoline prices rise. The OPEC+ alliance approved an increase in production of 400,000 barrels per day for the month of January at a meeting.

Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud speaks at the COP26 U.N. Climate Summit in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 10, 2021.
The fast-mutating variant led countries to impose barriers to travel when it emerged late last week. Americans had been celebrating what seemed to be a nearly normal Thanksgiving after some pandemic restrictions eased.

The price of a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude fell with news of omicron. It was about $78 a barrel a week ago and was trading at about $64 a barrel Thursday following the OPEC+ decision. International benchmark Brent crude followed a similar path, falling from $79 a barrel a week ago to about $67 Thursday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 04, 2021, 09:36:56 AM

66% Of Consumers Think Electric Vehicles Have A Gas Engine | Carscoops (https://www.carscoops.com/2021/11/66-of-consumers-think-electric-vehicles-have-a-gas-engine/#Echobox=1638597160)

We are too dumb to persist.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2021, 09:46:08 AM

yes, but the guys in the group know the difference in gaming systems

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 04, 2021, 10:09:52 AM

I think there's probably some confusion in the public over the differences between a pure EV, and a hybrid.  I suspect that played some part in the results.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 04, 2021, 10:50:30 AM

Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2021, 10:09:52 AM

I think there's probably some confusion in the public over the differences between a pure EV, and a hybrid.  I suspect that played some part in the results.

Probably so.  It's still not great when that many don't understand what a hybrid is versus a BEV.

I guess we're doomed, it's all optics and show.  Look at all the PROMISES made to cut CO2 emissions ... later after I'm out of office.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2021, 06:54:31 AM

Interview: Climate Change – A Different Perspective with Judith Curry: Part II | Climate Etc. (https://judithcurry.com/2021/12/04/interview-climate-change-a-different-perspective-with-judith-curry-part-ii/#more-28077)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2021, 08:08:32 AM

 We used to hear five degrees centigrade, four degrees, crazy, horrible, scary stuff. Okay. Now with the AR6, with the medium emissions scenario, they said their best estimate was 2.9 degrees centigrade. And this is 2.9 degrees since pre-industrial times. So it’s really, we’ve already warmed 1.2. So we’re already halfway there with no particularly dire results. And then actually according to the International Energy Agencies, our emissions are coming in lower than the IPCC medium emission scenario. The estimates are now like maybe 2.6 degrees is the business as usual. And then if you put in everybody’s promises, that goes down to 2.2 and then net zero for the more developed countries, then it’s down to 1.8 degrees. Not meeting the made up target of 1.5 degrees is deemed to be code red for humanity, but how meaningful are these targets?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2021, 04:22:35 PM

https://youtu.be/kybenSq0KPo


https://youtu.be/ciStnd9Y2ak

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 11, 2021, 04:27:44 PM

Incredibly wicked storms here in past 14 hours or so across the region.  Devastating tornadoes in Western KY, S Ill.  

Awful.   Lots of fatalities. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2021, 11:39:29 AM

tornadoes are scary

and brutal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 12, 2021, 11:52:52 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on December 11, 2021, 04:27:44 PM

Incredibly wicked storms here in past 14 hours or so across the region.  Devastating tornadoes in Western KY, S Ill. 

Awful.  Lots of fatalities.

Terrible can't even imagine,just right down the street an old oak came down right in the middle of a brick ranch..Thoughts and prayers to all those affected

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2021, 09:55:38 AM

39° here at dog walking time this morning...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 15, 2021, 10:18:47 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 12, 2021, 11:39:29 AM

tornadoes are scary

and brutal

They're pretty rare here, but I've had to duck out into our safety space at least a couple of times in my lifetime.  One grazed a shopping center about 2 miles from my house, ripped the roof right off the entire complex.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2021, 10:26:53 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2021, 09:55:38 AM

39° here at dog walking time this morning...

was 42 here this morning at 6:30
expected high of 68 - gonna crush the record

I'd be golfing but I have a job and the wind is going to blow 35mph with gusts of 70mph

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2021, 10:28:33 AM

When I was a kid we had a tornado come off of Moses lake by my house

It took the back end off of a local bowling alley

They still find bowling pins in the surrounding area to this day

anyway this thing went parallel to my block and a few houses down jumped over the house picked up a car turned it 180 degrees and set it back down in the driveway

it then continued for about 200 yards and disappeared

I saw this thing from a distance and the thing that struck me was how white it was

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2021, 10:34:37 AM

I can't count to times I've had to head to the basement because of tornado warnings and close calls

many many family and friends have had considerable damage, including their entire house exploded and gone

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2021, 10:37:08 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2021, 10:34:37 AM

I can't count to times I've had to head to the basement because of tornado warnings and close calls

many many family and friends have had considerable damage, including their entire house exploded and gone

fortunately we dont get near the tornados here in the Houston area that folks do in the central US and rarely have one that sticks around for more then a few minutes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2021, 10:47:12 AM

No tornadoes in Mission Viejo, CA. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 15, 2021, 10:51:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2021, 10:26:53 AM

was 42 here this morning at 6:30
expected high of 68 - gonna crush the record

I'd be golfing but I have a job and the wind is going to blow 35mph with gusts of 70mph

Thought you retired or ya had to jump back in - double dipping perhaps?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on December 15, 2021, 11:26:55 AM

The storms didn't hit my immediate area, in Nashville, too bad.  I did have a large, 3-foot diameter tree come down and I lost several shingles.  The tree was far from the house, so that was good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2021, 11:05:18 AM

Hey Fearless. You out there?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2021, 11:14:56 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2021, 11:05:18 AM

Hey Fearless. You out there?

Say something nasty about the Huskers, he'll show up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2021, 11:35:03 AM

I wonder if he has power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 16, 2021, 11:37:35 AM

effing 70-something degrees here.  All you people who get legit Christmas weather, I'm jealous.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2021, 11:44:07 AM

There were 75-100 MPH winds up in the Midwest last night. It was 66 degrees in Chicago.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 16, 2021, 12:41:09 PM

78 here in Houston

I actually have the air on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2021, 12:59:46 PM

Air is on here too. It's 80.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2021, 01:02:19 PM

71 here, house is open.  It'll hit 80+ tomorrow though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 16, 2021, 01:04:01 PM

High of 60 here. Getting in the plane to Tulsa though. Supposed to be chilly tomorrow and Saturday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on December 16, 2021, 02:17:00 PM

It's 61 in Columbus. Porch weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on December 16, 2021, 02:56:44 PM

21 and very windy here in MSP.

Last night was the first ever December tornado in Minnesota recorded history. One north of Lewiston in the bluff country, and NWS Twin Cities is investigating another potential one that went right down the main drag of Hartland.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 16, 2021, 03:26:11 PM

https://www.sfgate.com/weather/amp/Atmospheric-river-snowpack-water-California-16705207.php

Water!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2021, 08:48:29 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2021, 11:35:03 AM

I wonder if he has power.

I was on the road for work to SE Iowa - Ottumwa

Daughter texed during my 1st sales meeting saying we lost power.  She was worried about the food in the fridge.  Told her to leave the door shut.  She's a survivor and genius (her terms), she figured how to open the garage door w/o the opener and went o McDonalds for food, and I suppose, internet access.

A hour later the ex-GF texted - her acreage was hit by tornado, about a mile and a half for my house.  Roof gone off her house, outbuildings destroyed.  Scary stuff.  No people or animals injured.


(https://i.imgur.com/oPBMO3W.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2021, 08:50:04 PM

rafters, sheetrock, insulation, sheeting, shingles, everything

GONE! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 11:34:25 AM

TORNADO | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/12/16/tornado/#more-28151)

Basically there are no clear upward trends associating violent weather pattens and climate change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2021, 12:16:30 PM

good

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 01:02:02 PM

Basically, anyone claiming some dramatic weather event is due to CC is lying or misinformed or simply using a false guess for PR.

We simply don't know that level of detail, at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 24, 2021, 01:04:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 01:02:02 PM

Basically, anyone claiming some dramatic weather event is due to CC is lying or misinformed or simply using a false guess for PR.

We simply don't know that level of detail, at all.

but they still do it every time we have bad weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 01:12:17 PM

Some do, yes, but it helps to be more specific than "they".  It's obviously now part of any discourse, rising crime is due to "defunding police" offered as a simplistic and largely incorrect cause.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 24, 2021, 01:18:22 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 01:12:17 PM

Some do, yes, but it helps to be more specific than "they".  It's obviously now part of any discourse, rising crime is due to "defunding police" offered as a simplistic and largely incorrect cause.

You could be mistaken there,if you're a thug looking for an easy score that seems to be the path of least resistence.They're incorrigible,not stupid

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 01:21:06 PM

Not many departments have been defunded, that's my point.  Many have major hiring and retention issues though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 24, 2021, 01:58:46 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 24, 2021, 01:04:16 PM

but they still do it every time we have bad weather

Just as the other side often talks about how many "inches of global warming" they're getting each snowstorm... As if seasonal cold weather invalidates the idea of global warming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 24, 2021, 02:33:55 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 24, 2021, 01:58:46 PM

Just as the other side often talks about how many "inches of global warming" they're getting each snowstorm... As if seasonal cold weather invalidates the idea of global warming.

yep thats when it changed from global warming to climate change to accommodate their theory

which is if something bad happens weatherwise its the fault of man

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 24, 2021, 02:45:48 PM

Of the top 10 Snowiest Winters in NE OHIO since records have been kept 7 of them have happened since 1995.So the last 25 years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2021, 09:16:41 PM

park those vehicles

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 24, 2021, 09:26:54 PM

Golf Carts yes damn batteries pollute the earth

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on December 26, 2021, 07:47:02 AM

The rare sleep with the windows open Christmas night in Columbus

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 26, 2021, 11:05:46 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on December 26, 2021, 07:47:02 AM

The rare sleep with the windows open Christmas night in Columbus

as a kid I used to love to sleep with my window open on a cool night

course in Texas that was a lot

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on December 26, 2021, 04:41:33 PM

Optimal weather for taking it all down, including the tree, so I did, despite the denunciations from the rest of the household. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on December 26, 2021, 04:49:29 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on December 26, 2021, 04:41:33 PM

Optimal weather for taking it all down, including the tree, so I did, despite the denunciations from the rest of the household.

we always wait till after New Years day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 26, 2021, 06:25:35 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on December 26, 2021, 04:41:33 PM

Optimal weather for taking it all down, including the tree, so I did, despite the denunciations from the rest of the household.

Same here. Need to pull the Jeep out of the garage to have room to work, and without a top on the Jeep I don't like doing that in the rain. Supposed to rain tomorrow so we did it today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 28, 2021, 03:55:56 PM

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/lake-tahoe-shatters-50-year-december-snowfall-record-with-more-than-16-feet-of-snow/ar-AAScNXA?ocid=winp1taskbar

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2022, 06:37:23 PM

Hitting almost 80 and sunny here... Pissed that I'm stuck sitting in front of a damn laptop working. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 06:49:56 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2022, 06:37:23 PM

Hitting almost 80 and sunny here... Pissed that I'm stuck sitting in front of a damn laptop working.

Upper 40s and rainy here today.  We're supposed to hit the 70s at the end of the week, though.  That's good winter weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 11, 2022, 07:24:39 PM

I ran today with a sweatshirt and no coat, it was a trifle chilly at first but nice in the sun.  Baseball starts Tuesday, I am psyched.

I also got the IRS to recognize their $11 K tax error, just got word today by mail.  I owe them $333.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 11, 2022, 07:44:38 PM

Gonna be serving up Gopher balls again?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 11, 2022, 08:05:20 PM

A player did hit one out in 2019, I wasn't there to see it, we play on three fields.  I don't think I throw hard enough to have a normalish person hit it out.  I have pitched to the pros in the final game several times, I do "OK", but they are 50ish, every former pitcher has a blown arm except Chris Medlin, he can deal, and does.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 08:59:29 AM

Winter is coming: Researchers uncover the surprising cause of the little ice age: Cold era, lasting from early 15th to mid-19th centuries, triggered by unusually warm conditions -- ScienceDaily (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/12/211215142052.htm)


New research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst provides a novel answer to one of the persistent questions in historical climatology, environmental history and the earth sciences: what caused the Little Ice Age? The answer, we now know, is a paradox: warming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 10:32:12 AM

we now think we know

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 10:32:29 AM

FACT OF THE DAY:

Iceland uses 100% renewable electricity, making it the “greenest” country in the world. 

Provided by FactRetriever.com

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 12, 2022, 10:38:21 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 10:32:29 AM

FACT OF THE DAY:

Iceland uses 100% renewable electricity, making it the “greenest” country in the world.

Provided by FactRetriever.com

their power plants are hydroelectric 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 11:07:59 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 08:59:29 AM

Winter is coming: Researchers uncover the surprising cause of the little ice age: Cold era, lasting from early 15th to mid-19th centuries, triggered by unusually warm conditions -- ScienceDaily (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/12/211215142052.htm)


New research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst provides a novel answer to one of the persistent questions in historical climatology, environmental history and the earth sciences: what caused the Little Ice Age? The answer, we now know, is a paradox: warming.

Hmm... Changes in the North Atlantic Ocean currents cause an ice age... Who'da thunk it? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 11:52:43 AM

Renewable energy provided almost 100% of electricity production, with about 73% coming from hydropower and 27% from geothermal power. Most of the hydropower plants are owned by Landsvirkjun (the National Power Company) which is the main supplier of electricity in Iceland.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 12:12:17 PM

The double-edged sword of catastrophe climate reporting - New Statesman (https://www.newstatesman.com/environment/climate/2021/12/the-double-edged-sword-of-catastrophe-climate-reporting)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 01:51:46 PM

The climate change conformists - The Spectator World (https://spectatorworld.com/topic/the-climate-change-conformists/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2022, 10:38:57 PM

Xcel Energy announced Wednesday that its new eastern South Dakota wind farm is now in service and is powering more than 150,000 homes to customers in the Upper Midwest, according to a news release.

The Dakota Range I and II Wind Farm covers 44,000 acres across Codington, Grant and Deuel Counties about 20 miles north of Watertown. Xcel Energy closed on the land in 2018 and started construction in 2020 with Minnesota-based Mortensen Construction handling wind farm construction.

With 72 wind turbines, the wind farm can generate 300 megawatts of electricity, delivering enough renewable energy to power about 157,000 homes, the release said.

The wind farm is a move toward carbon-free energy for the company. Overall, Xcel estimates that more than 60% of the energy provided to customers in the Upper Midwest is carbon free, with more than 20% coming from wind energy.


https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/business-journal/2022/01/12/xcel-energy-carbon-free-eastern-south-dakota-wind-farm-watertown/9185287002/ (https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/business-journal/2022/01/12/xcel-energy-carbon-free-eastern-south-dakota-wind-farm-watertown/9185287002/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2022, 07:05:39 AM

Why We Can't Leave Nature Alone — The New Atlantis (https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/why-we-cant-leave-nature-alone)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2022, 09:30:44 AM

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — An undersea volcano erupted in spectacular fashion near the Pacific nation of Tonga on Saturday, sending large tsunami waves crashing across the shore and people rushing to higher ground. A tsunami advisory was in effect for Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific coast.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or the extent of the damage as communications with the small nation remained cut off hours after the eruption.

In Hawaii, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reported waves slamming ashore from half a meter (a foot) in Nawiliwili, Kauai, to 80 centimeters (2.7 feet) in Hanalei.

“We are relieved that there is no reported damage and only minor flooding throughout the islands,” the center said.

On Tonga, video posted to social media showed large waves washing ashore in coastal areas, swirling around homes and buildings.

New Zealand’s military said it was monitoring the situation and remained on standby, ready to assist if asked.

Satellite images showed a huge eruption, a plume of ash, steam and gas rising like a mushroom above the blue Pacific waters.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 15, 2022, 10:16:24 AM

I wonder if the grocery stores here are out of milk, bread, eggs, and water today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2022, 10:27:41 AM

don't forget the toilet paper

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 08:40:10 AM

Snowpacolypse about to hit here, could be an inch of snow, or more.  Maybe inch and a half.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 10:09:28 AM

The snow has started, wish me well, I will try and keep everyone updated as long as I am able.  If I go silent, you will know it got me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 16, 2022, 10:11:45 AM

Stay safe, CD. A blizzard of those proportions here would make everyone lose their minds. Hopefully they're made of sterner stuff in the ATL...


You've got 6 months supply of bread, milk, and eggs, right?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 16, 2022, 10:15:07 AM

Good luck, we're all counting on you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2022, 10:16:01 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 14, 2022, 07:05:39 AM

Why We Can't Leave Nature Alone — The New Atlantis (https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/why-we-cant-leave-nature-alone)

It'll take at least a pot of coffee to read it,just gimme the conclusion

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 10:17:05 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 16, 2022, 10:16:01 AM

It'll take at least a pot of coffee to read it,just gimme the conclusion

Basically, humans need to mess with nature, and we're lousy at doing it.  I say build more dams.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 10:17:56 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/5FmEaNX.jpg)

View out my office door.  Amazing.  I haven't seen it snow this hard in, well, years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2022, 10:18:23 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 08:40:10 AM

Snowpacolypse about to hit here, could be an inch of snow, or more.  Maybe inch and a half.

Hell you wouldn't break out the leaf blower for that in Cinci

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2022, 10:20:52 AM

Bunch of tornado action North and South from me. We didn't get anything, except about 3" of rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 10:23:55 AM

I've been checked North Port weather for days now, it looks really good for baseball starting Tuesday through Sunday.  Yay.  I'll be out of this blizzard if I can make it somehow.  Speaking of which, it might be over, just some flurries now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2022, 10:31:11 AM

North Port got hit this morning, FYI. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2022, 10:31:17 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 10:17:56 AM

View out my office door.  Amazing.  I haven't seen it snow this hard in, well, years.

https://youtu.be/l2iIq3zaP6k?t=401

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 16, 2022, 10:32:13 AM

The weather folks are predicting a slight chance of snow/ice next Thursday for the Austin area, like well below 20%.  

But after the Freezepocalypse last year when temps didn't get above freezing for 10 days, with tons of snow and ice on the ground, folks are freaking out.  I predict grocery stores will be completely out of Doritos and bottled water by the end of the weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on January 16, 2022, 10:39:27 AM

its not forecast to even get to freezing temps for Houston so we should be fine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 16, 2022, 12:04:08 PM

73 and sunny forecast here in the shithole.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2022, 12:06:03 PM

Up to 26 from 13 deg,getting into the mid 30s,grab the Coppertone

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2022, 12:17:54 PM

High of 70 today, and then some 60's this week. Our three weeks of winter has begun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2022, 02:24:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 10:17:05 AM

Basically, humans need to mess with nature, and we're lousy at doing it.  I say build more dams.

In 2015, hydropower generated 16.6% of the world's total electricity and 70% of all renewable electricity, and was expected to increase by about 3.1% each year for the next 25 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 17, 2022, 06:12:08 AM

As coal use surges, America finds it's hard to unplug from carbon | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/589538-as-coal-use-surges-america-finds-its-hard-to-unplug-from-carbon)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 17, 2022, 06:12:41 AM

Just taking coal out would be a heavy heavt expensive lift for the US.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 17, 2022, 08:26:27 AM

Looks like around 9" prolly more snow blowing-wind whipping out door temp 24,that might be the high for the day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2022, 10:07:24 AM

hope you're fully stocked with beer and sammich fixins

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 17, 2022, 10:15:27 AM

Plenty of winter to go, but still waiting for an actual snow event this year.   there's been plenty 'around' us N-S-E-W, but we might have an inch over five different traces.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2022, 10:46:49 AM

that's my story and I like it

Gonna be 44 and sunny here today

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 17, 2022, 11:58:28 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 17, 2022, 08:26:27 AM

Looks like around 9" prolly more snow blowing-wind whipping out door temp 24,that might be the high for the day

WRONG average of 13"-14" on the bright side it's up to 25.Why didn't they get this in Iowa?Anywho,none of the forecasters had this one pegged,only when we were getting pounded they start  with their"hey something could be on the way" horseshit.

 Oh and the '79 TORO is sputtering hopefully it's just a carb rebuild.Not alot to them but I don't have a heated garage - might drop this off

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2022, 12:46:12 PM

Central and Eastern Iowa did catch that

I'm lucky out here in the arid wild west

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 17, 2022, 01:33:58 PM

Did you say air head?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 17, 2022, 01:42:25 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 16, 2022, 02:24:09 PM

In 2015, hydropower generated 16.6% of the world's total electricity and 70% of all renewable electricity, and was expected to increase by about 3.1% each year for the next 25 years.

As much  of the polar ice caps and glaciers are supposedly melting hydro may be the way to go 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 17, 2022, 04:06:30 PM

Impressive snow avoidance in MI, IN past 72hrs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 20, 2022, 05:56:22 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/NGqkOFB.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 20, 2022, 07:08:03 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 20, 2022, 05:56:22 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/NGqkOFB.png)

Jeep DGAF.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 20, 2022, 07:39:53 PM

That Jeep ain't angry.

It's determined.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 21, 2022, 12:55:35 AM

Proof there is no Global Warming


(https://i.imgur.com/k3dUjJe.png)(https://i.imgur.com/H3Y6QpY.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/3dNXBWg.png)(https://i.imgur.com/FmK2gF8.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/w5tonUy.png)(https://i.imgur.com/IcfPQZj.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/rGq9k0w.png)(https://i.imgur.com/fXNNIdo.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 21, 2022, 01:00:49 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/We8DJO0.png)(https://i.imgur.com/6xp2SAR.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/fu8wEH3.png)(https://i.imgur.com/D9VM7Sy.png)

Doesn't get more scientific than that 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 21, 2022, 03:08:06 PM

With the Artic Vortex invading this is important to know

What Temperature Does Beer Freeze?
April 14, 2019 by Greg Budgen (https://mancaveadvisor.com/author/mcaadmin/)
Beer will generally freeze at 28°F (-2.2°C). This will vary due to the alcohol level of the beer.
The stronger the beer (ie. higher level of alcohol) the lower the temperature it will freeze at. This variation is because of Ethanol.
Beer Freezing Reference (For All Alcohol Levels)
We’ve created a reference table to you’ll know exactly what temperature a beer will freeze for just about every alcohol level.

[th]Alcohol % Level[/th] [th]Freeze Temperature (Degrees Fahrenheit)[/th] [th]Freeze Temperature (Degrees Celsius)[/th]
3.0%	30.2 °F	-1 °C
3.1%	30.2 °F	-1 °C
3.2%	30.1 °F	-1.1 °C
3.3%	30.0 °F	-1.1 °C
3.4%	30.0 °F	-1.1 °C
3.5%	29.9 °F	-1.2 °C
3.6%	29.8 °F	-1.2 °C
3.7%	29.8 °F	-1.2 °C
3.8%	29.7 °F	-1.3 °C
3.9%	29.7 °F	-1.3 °C
4.0%	29.6 °F	-1.3 °C
4.1%	29.5 °F	-1.3 °C
4.2%	29.5 °F	-1.4 °C
4.3%	29.4 °F	-1.4 °C
4.4%	29.3 °F	-1.5 °C
4.5%	29.3 °F	-1.5 °C
4.6%	29.2 °F	-1.5 °C
4.7%	29.2 °F	-1.5 °C
4.8%	29.1 °F	-1.6 °C
4.9%	29.0 °F	-1.6 °C
5.0%	29.0 °F	-1.6 °C
5.5%	28.7 °F	-1.8 °C
6.0%	28.3 °F	-2.0 °C
6.5%	28.0 °F	-2.2 °C
7.0%	27.7 °F	-2.4 °C
8.0%	27.0 °F	-2.8 °C
9.0%	26.4 °F	-3.1 °C
10.0%	25.7 °F	-3.5 °C

What Happens to Beer after it’s been Frozen?
Beer that freezes all the way through will lose a lot of it’s carbonation, so it’ll taste flat when you drink it. The carbonation actually gets squeezed out of the bottle, which is usually the cause of your bottle exploding. Sometimes you may be lucky and find that it tastes ok.
The freeze-thaw cycle will accelerate the aging of beer so it’s advisable not to freeze and thaw beer too many times.
Can you Drink Beer after it’s been frozen?
If you find that you have a beer that has frozen (and somehow not exploded in the freezer) then you can thaw it and drink it. Be sure to taste it first.
Put you beer in the fridge (https://mancaveadvisor.com/man-cave-mini-fridge-buying-guide/) if it has been frozen. Allow it to thaw slowly before drinking.
Why can Beer be Stored at a Lower Temperature in a Keg than a Bottle?
The amount of energy required to freeze a bottle of beer is far less than that of a keg. A keg contains far more liquid than a small bottle so is takes more effect to freeze more liquid. This is why keg owners can get away with setting their kegerators to lower settings like 24° F (-4° C).
How Long does a Bottle of Beer take to Freeze in a Standard Freezer?
Most freezers are set to 0° F (-18° C) so a bottle of beer will take approximately 90 minutes to freeze.
If all you want to do is chill a warm beer, then you can usually put it in the freezer for 45-60 minutes without it freezing or damaging the bottle.
Keep in mind too that a larger bottle of beer will take longer to freeze in the freezer because of the volume of liquid.
Does Freezing Beer Change the Alcohol Level?
When beer is frozen, the ethanol remains in a liquid state. All of the water around it freezes. Remember, ethanol freezes at -173° F (-113.9 °C). The ethanol gets suspended among all of the ice crystals.
The alcohol level of beer can be raised by removing some of these ice crystals, leaving more of the ethanol behind.
Why does Frozen Beer Overflow?
When beer is frozen, it expands in volume. This is simply because water in solid form uses more volume than water in liquid form.
Freezing Reference
The guide below shows general freezing temperatures.
Water freezes at 32° F (0° C)
Beer freezes at 28° F (-2.2° C)
Vodka (80 Proof) freezes at -16.5° F (-27° C)
Ethanol freezes at -173° F (-113.9 °C)
Conclusion
Whatever temperature you like to drink your beer (https://mancaveadvisor.com/ideal-beer-fridge-temperature/). It’s not a good idea to freeze it. Besides potentially making a huge mess in your freezer from exploding bottles or cans, there’s no real benefit to drinking beer that’s been frozen.
You may be in a situation where your beers have been left out in the freezing cold, so read the info above to get an idea of whether your beer can be salvaged.
All things said, nothing beats tasting a beer to work out if it has gone bad (https://mancaveadvisor.com/how-does-beer-go-bad/) from freezing. Don’t forget to pop your beer glasses (https://mancaveadvisor.com/beer-glass-types/) in the freezer too!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 21, 2022, 03:54:54 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 21, 2022, 03:08:06 PM

Why can Beer be Stored at a Lower Temperature in a Keg than a Bottle?
The amount of energy required to freeze a bottle of beer is far less than that of a keg. A keg contains far more liquid than a small bottle so is takes more effect to freeze more liquid. This is why keg owners can get away with setting their kegerators to lower settings like 24° F (-4° C).

I don't know that I entirely buy that you can store kegged beer in a 24F fridge. While this is true, that a keg will take a lot more energy to freeze than a can or bottle, due to volume (and due to the specific heat of a water-based beverage), any fridge that can maintain 24F over a long period of time would freeze a keg. Not to mention that it can also freeze the beer in your draft lines between the keg and the tap. And this is critical, because frozen draft lines mean that even if the keg isn't frozen, you can't get the beer out into your glass!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 22, 2022, 09:36:54 AM

ease your troubled mind - pretty sure most of us brought the Beer in from the garage.I know it would cause you great distress if any of the little guys started exploding - Lagers though they may be. Freakin' got down to -3 last nite sunny and cheerful 11 deg out now though,no cloudy walking Zombie casualties. Thought I heard the weather wench state we were 9 deg below normal for January this month and we look to finish that way. ❄️ 🥶

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 22, 2022, 10:44:30 AM

Gonna be 72 and sunny in the golf course today.

With a high wind advisory, so I'm already blaming the wind for my score.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2022, 11:09:30 AM

you sir, are a duffer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2022, 11:14:14 AM

gets a helluva lot colder in my garage than 24 degrees

my 5% swill doesn't freeze until it gets much colder

if it going to get cold I move it from the floor to a bench

if its going to get really cold I will bring it inside

but, these are cans.  They can be thawed if they get slushy

can't take stoopid chances with bottles

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 22, 2022, 12:04:39 PM

Even cans freezing/thawing breaks down carbonation,so even though you drink Bud - it could get/taste worse.hard to imagine i know

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2022, 12:10:22 PM

one benefit to drinking Bud.

It seems to withstand temp changes better than any other beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 22, 2022, 12:32:43 PM

How would you know? You'd break into delerious tremmers if you tried anything else.Branch out - push the limits - Pabst,Lonestar,Hamms,Schlitz,Gennessee,Stroh's - the world's your oyster 😜

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2022, 12:38:34 PM

I do drink PBR, Hamms, Schlitz, Grain Belt, Steel Reserve, and Miller High Life on occasion

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 22, 2022, 05:43:15 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 21, 2022, 03:54:54 PM

I don't know that I entirely buy that you can store kegged beer in a 24F fridge. While this is true, that a keg will take a lot more energy to freeze than a can or bottle, due to volume (and due to the specific heat of a water-based beverage), any fridge that can maintain 24F over a long period of time would freeze a keg. Not to mention that it can also freeze the beer in your draft lines between the keg and the tap. And this is critical, because frozen draft lines mean that even if the keg isn't frozen, you can't get the beer out into your glass!

Forget about ice-storing beer, ice-brewing is where it's at.

(https://i.imgur.com/VPslgzd.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2022, 07:31:18 PM

5.3% ABV Lager

I'd drink it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 22, 2022, 08:50:18 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 22, 2022, 11:09:30 AM

you sir, are a duffer

Sure was today. But I made two birdies on par 5s with massive tailwinds turning them into driver/wedge holes...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2022, 09:54:49 PM

when the wind is blowing over 20 mph and the course is mostly empty.. I've always wanted to just play the down wind holes twice to total 18 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 23, 2022, 01:07:40 AM

When I spent a summer in WY,  I used to play a high desert course every day after work, and while I think it rained once all summer, you could get your share of wind.   Mile high altitude + dry thin rough = Driver wedge par 5s.  Shortest 6800 course I've ever played.   The roll you would get off the fairway was incredible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 23, 2022, 09:02:30 AM

irrigated fairways?  or just tees and greens?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 23, 2022, 02:43:43 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 23, 2022, 09:02:30 AM

irrigated fairways?  or just tees and greens?

Tees and greens and limited fairway watering (raw water).  Rough never watered, thus if in a windy dry spell, a bowling alley.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 07:45:29 AM

This January is unrelenting, couple more Inches last nite gonna get below 0 tonite.Since the 17th when here we got 13" it's been death by 1,000 paper cuts - accrueing a dusting up to 2 " every nite.Pretty sure the mercury hasn't hit freezing in close to 3 weeks.The cold I can deal with but the shoveling gets irksome.I look at it as daily aerobics.I throw out alot of seed for the birds as it's a tall order to dig down just to find nothing there and it keeps getting buried so firing up the TORO shortly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 08:11:56 AM

Your campaign for not moving there, is very effective.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2022, 08:20:41 AM

Florida is gonna get another cold blast this weekend. Could get below freezing in some spots. Iguanas will be falling out of trees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 08:24:09 AM

Wonder what roasted Iquana tastes like.....and damn it's snowing again.I'm going to have a chat with the patron saint of winter weather Nanook of the North.And I'll be lugging the Jim Beam along or Eagle Rare

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2022, 08:35:38 AM

Hitting 23°F here a few nights over the next week, which is chilly for here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 08:36:58 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 08:24:09 AM

Wonder what roasted Iquana tastes like....

Chicken.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 08:41:31 AM

I thought you were calling me chicken(which of course I am) I was simply going to say i haven't had the opportunity to try it - I'd eat it over the sink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 08:46:34 AM

I've had it in Mexico.  It's not at all common in Texas, but I read that there are places in Florida that serve it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 08:50:28 AM

Why not they eat Gator/Snake,which i guess is better than the other way around

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 08:52:11 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 08:46:34 AM

I've had it in Mexico.  It's not at all common in Texas, but I read that there are places in Florida that serve it.

Don't lie you've prolly had it marinated in Live Oak then smoked over dried Oak

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 08:55:11 AM

Lotsa places serve gator, it's common even here in Texico.  It's good, I like it just fine.

Snake isn't typically on a menu, it's a ranch meal in my experience.  I've had it and it's okay, but more tedious to prepare than chicken so I don't really see much point.  If you're starving out in the desert and it's the main source of protein, sure, why not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 09:02:43 AM

Ya Like my friends who catch blue gill it's fun and they are indeed tasty but i believe one expends more energy cleaning them than taken in by eating them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 09:07:27 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 08:52:11 AM

Don't lie you've prolly had it marinated in Live Oak then smoked over dried Oak

Speaking of which, the LO owner just sent me an email last night that he's FINALY brewed the Czech Cerne that I've been begging him to make for 20 years.

Looks like Sober January ends today...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2022, 09:08:46 AM

I have not come across any places around here that serve Iguana. 

They are much more prevalent on the East side of the state, although we have more than enough here. 


Iguanas in Florida (myfwc.com) (https://myfwc.com/media/3090/iguanabrochure.pdf)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2022, 09:09:35 AM

Crossing (or not) the 1.5 and 2.0C thresholds | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/01/23/crossing-or-not-the-1-5-and-2-0oc-thresholds/#more-28254)

All of the components of natural variability point to cooling during the period 2020-2050. Individually these components are not expected to be large in the moderate scenarios. However when summed, their magnitude approaches, or could even exceed, the magnitude of the emissions-driven warming for the next three decades.  The odds of all three natural variability inputs maintaining at the IPCC baseline levels to 2050 seems low to me.

She discusses natural variability in climate relative to human CC influences, which is interesting (to me).  I think this also illustrates how complex climate models are today in trying to predict what are actually small changes in mean T.  I learned in the olden days how a model that is too responsive to unknown input variables is often not a good model, I'd say never a good model.  A small change in some variable could have a large change in your output prediction.

And these models are hugely complex, and different, and they can only be compared with previous data on mean temperature, so you can create different models with different weighting that are consistent with historical data that could well be off for the future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 09:36:06 AM

Climate talk on the Beer and Iguana Thread?  Outrageous!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 09:49:56 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 09:07:27 AM

Speaking of which, the LO owner just sent me an email last night that he's FINALY brewed the Czech Cerne that I've been begging him to make for 20 years.

Looks like Sober January ends today...

Who'se your buddy?Who'se your friend?Who'se your Pal?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 09:58:24 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 28, 2022, 09:49:56 AM

Who'se your buddy?Who'se your friend?Who'se your Pal?

Gotta come down to Texico to get it.  But if you do, I'll take you to the brewery and you can drink right out of the bright tank, just like I will be. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 28, 2022, 10:08:24 AM

Gonna be 74 and sunny here today in this shithole of a failed state. I think I'll take the Jeep to get the kids from school...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 30, 2022, 09:00:48 AM

(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1487780135864467457/P0v9MRLy?format=jpg&name=small)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2022, 09:06:23 AM

I am very very glad to be out of that cold country.  It's cold enough here for me.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2022, 09:24:06 AM

It's 44 here. The Canadiens can kiss my ass and take their f'ing air mass back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2022, 09:26:55 AM

We walked a bit yesterday, it was "chilly" but OK in the sun without wind.  My ankle is still sore and swollen but I'm at least able to hobble a bit over a week later.  I caught it right on the bone.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2022, 12:42:21 PM

Quote from: utee94 on January 28, 2022, 09:58:24 AM

Gotta come down to Texico to get it.  But if you do, I'll take you to the brewery and you can drink right out of the bright tank, just like I will be. :)

How deep are these Vats - should i bring a floatation device?Already have a straw

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2022, 12:43:31 PM

Some friends split for S.Carolina where evidently it's in the 20s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2022, 06:49:44 AM

A warm spell is in the offing now with a bit of rain Tuesday.  It gets cold here of course but then it warms up (duh) and can be quite nice even midwinter.

I do wonder how many more years of increasing CO2 levels in our air will folks start to realize it's a lost cause.  We can't even decide to shut down coal plants while China builds more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2022, 08:06:29 AM

Very cold here. Started out at 34, and it's now 42. Feel sorry for those people who planned to come down here for a warm vacation. Not happening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2022, 08:15:03 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2022, 08:06:29 AM

Very cold here. 

🤣:D try 12 deg here we may eclipse 30 today the 1st time in many weeks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2022, 08:18:26 AM

I'm fine with it. My blood is still thick. Just feel bad for vacationers. Lots of money spent to be warm, and they aren't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2022, 08:44:10 AM

To be fair, it's late January.  It's not particularly warm anywhere in the continental US.  It's currently 46 in San Diego with a forecast high of 61.

We'll be in the 70s tomorrow, and then we'll have overnight lows in the teens at the end of the week.  Typical winter in Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2022, 09:05:11 AM

I think this is the coldest week of the year on average, which is good news I think.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2022, 09:06:48 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 31, 2022, 08:44:10 AM

To be fair, it's late January.  It's not particularly warm anywhere in the continental US.  It's currently 46 in San Diego with a forecast high of 61.

We'll be in the 70s tomorrow, and then we'll have overnight lows in the teens at the end of the week.  Typical winter in Texas.

We have been below average (well below) for the month. A couple of outliers, but this has been a very cold period for here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2022, 09:11:04 AM

We had good weather for baseball camp at least, it was quite nice, Saturday was cloudy but no real rain.

The two days after that got rather cold but it was clear, and then rain was coming so we left a day early.  I'm still sore, but my ankle feels better finally, I'm going to hit the gym today light for the first time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2022, 09:11:10 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2022, 09:06:48 AM

We have been below average (well below) for the month. A couple of outliers, but this has been a very cold period for here.

Global warming, obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2022, 09:37:49 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2022, 08:18:26 AM

I'm fine with it. My blood is still thick. Just feel bad for vacationers. Lots of money spent to be warm, and they aren't.

Wusses

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2022, 09:39:41 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2022, 09:05:11 AM

I think this is the coldest week of the year on average, which is good news I think. 

N.E.Ohio is keeping it's end of the bargain up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2022, 09:44:39 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 31, 2022, 08:44:10 AM

To be fair, it's late January.  It's not particularly warm anywhere in the continental US.  It's currently 46 in San Diego with a forecast high of 61.

We'll be in the 70s tomorrow, and then we'll have overnight lows in the teens at the end of the week.  Typical winter in Texas.

Yep. I think it may have cracked 70 here yesterday, and should be low-mid 60s next few days. Apparently we are headed back above 70 by the weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 01:51:18 PM

So speaking of those "late teens at the end of the week"-- looks like we're going to get a decent chunk of precipitation tonight, to go along with sub-freezing temps that should kick in around midnight, and then the likelihood that it's not going to get above freezing all day tomorrow.  Local schools are already canceled for Thursday, and we're going to wait-and-see for Friday.

Still, it shouldn't be anything like the 9-days of sub-freezing we experienced last February, that were also accompanied by three separate ice storm events and a lot of snow in between.

Regardless, all local grocery stores and Costcos currently resemble war zones.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 02, 2022, 01:55:21 PM

Here in Houston the forecast is for it to be barely freezing for about 9 hours then it warms up

if it was ever gonna snow here this would be it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 02, 2022, 03:59:01 PM

Mid-60s here... Should warm up to the 70s for the weekend and then even into low 80s late next week. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2022, 05:25:59 PM

Got up to 80 today. Now 76. This is why I'm here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 05:29:38 PM

Yup Austin winters aren't very long or very severe, but even as they are, they're too cold for me.  There will come a day when I'll move further south.  A lot further south.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 02, 2022, 06:13:40 PM

Schools already closed tomorrow, I'm off work, I loaded up on firewood, booze, and food - bring on the snow!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 02, 2022, 06:51:48 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 02, 2022, 06:13:40 PM

Schools already closed tomorrow, I'm off work, I loaded up on firewood, booze, and food - bring on the snow!

Love the approach!   Make the most of it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 06:56:50 PM

I do not miss it.  I ended up being the snow blower user for the four houses on our flag lots.  I think when moved they decided to just drive on the snow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 07:03:50 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 02, 2022, 06:13:40 PM

Schools already closed tomorrow, I'm off work, I loaded up on firewood, booze, and food - bring on the snow!

Yup same here.  Kids are off school tomorrow. We have plenty of food, our fireplace is all gas, and I have a ton of booze still lying around from the Holidays.  We're good to go.

I'll probably start a big batch of chili around 9 or 10 tomorrow to be ready by later afternoon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 07:06:02 PM

My daughter in C=bus is moving to Vancouver this summer, same company.  More interesting to visit I think, I've never been.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 02, 2022, 07:40:27 PM

It never gets below 40 degrees in Vancouver. 

Canada's San Diego. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 02, 2022, 07:56:11 PM

They have a nude beach in Vancouver so make sure to do some ab exercises before visiting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 02, 2022, 08:05:40 PM

They called off school here Thurs.  Ok fine.  However they canceled Wed too and it was raining here til 5.   It was obviously not going to get hazardous until after commute.  So irritating. 

 It is pretty awful out there north of Indy.  Basically north of I70 you're in trouble.  Round 2 starts overnight and that will be real snow around here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2022, 07:31:30 AM

New England senators ask Biden admin to study economic impacts of offshore wind plans | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/592495-new-england-senators-ask-biden-administration-to-study-economic)

NIMBY?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 03, 2022, 07:55:33 AM

Not in my territorial waters?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2022, 08:07:29 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 02, 2022, 06:13:40 PM

Schools already closed tomorrow, I'm off work, I loaded up on firewood, booze, and food - bring on the snow!

You might consider giving the booze to the kids. It will be a lot more quiet in your house.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 03, 2022, 08:17:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2022, 08:07:29 AM

You might consider giving the booze to the kids. It will be a lot more quiet in your house.

Slip some bourbon in their hot chocolate - I'm not above it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 03, 2022, 09:00:17 AM

My kids prefer gin, but I'm not about to share with them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2022, 01:49:05 PM

I wonder if Max' kids are drunk yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 04, 2022, 02:14:05 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2022, 01:49:05 PM

I wonder if Max' kids are drunk yet.

Not sure, I sent them out in the snow. I should probably go check on them at some point, right after I have another beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 04, 2022, 02:16:13 PM

Max's kid:

(https://i.imgur.com/9JNhpv2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 04, 2022, 05:08:36 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 04, 2022, 02:16:13 PM

Max's kid:

(https://i.imgur.com/9JNhpv2.png)

😂😂😂

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 05, 2022, 01:10:12 PM

Just got back from sledding. My feet are so cold I am making a fire and just gonna stick them right in

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2022, 03:30:30 PM

When your exercize maxes 😁 out from the recliner to the fridge to the lavatory gotta get the blood surging a little more.Excuse me the Pizza's here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2022, 03:43:23 PM

Have 39" of climate change in my back yard the last 14 days - that's not including the sinking/packing and one day of rain.Using sun glasses to shovel as the sun bouncing off of the landscape's pretty cheerful

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2022, 10:16:45 AM

Was 74 and sunny on the golf course today. Supposed to be 77 today and we'll be sitting outside at the brewery enjoying some delicious smash burgers and beers. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2022, 02:23:00 PM

55 here along the Missouri river yesterday afternoon

I hate winter party

(https://i.imgur.com/5da9aM7.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 06, 2022, 02:53:31 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2022, 10:16:45 AM

Was 74 and sunny on the golf course today. Supposed to be 77 today and we'll be sitting outside at the brewery enjoying some delicious smash burgers and beers.

Mmmmmm beers.

Here's the Czech Cerne that my friend at Live Oak Brewery finally got around to brewing.  It's freaking fantastic.


[img width=373.996 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/WK5LgSN.png[/img]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 06, 2022, 05:18:38 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/RmNzFLq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 08:40:03 AM

Lost time means a steeper climb on climate | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/593049-lost-time-means-a-steeper-climb-on-climate)

Wow, this is replete with obvious mistakes and propaganda and misinformation.

The increasingly comprehensive climate modeling done over the past decade has demonstrated that surface warming is likely to stabilize within a few years once net carbon emissions reach zero. This means we will see a direct and immediate response to our efforts to avert catastrophe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 12:48:06 PM

Study: World's biggest firms seen exaggerating their climate actions (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/study-worlds-biggest-firms-seen-exaggerating-their-climate-actions.html)

I wonder why anyone would have expected anything else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 01:19:16 PM

As coal use surges, America finds it's hard to unplug from carbon | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/589538-as-coal-use-surges-america-finds-its-hard-to-unplug-from-carbon)

Hate coal if it makes you happy, but the reality is that power producers have relied on it ever since Thomas Edison used it to fuel the world’s first central power plant in Lower Manhattan in 1882. Indeed, the jump in domestic consumption is part of a surge in global demand for coal, which still accounts for about 36 percent (https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix) of global electricity generation. Last month, the International Energy Agency reported (https://www.iea.org/news/coal-power-s-sharp-rebound-is-taking-it-to-a-new-record-in-2021-threatening-net-zero-goals) that “global coal power generation is on course to increase by 9 percent in 2021 to 10,350 terawatt-hours (TWh) — a new all-time high.” The agency also reported that “coal demand may well hit a new all-time high in the next two years.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 05:28:13 PM

Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 and 3 degrees C of warming by 2100 - IOPscience (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf)

 These scenarios project between 2 and 3 degrees C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 degrees C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 or below 2 degrees C.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2022, 06:25:46 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/FR9hIAI.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 04:27:21 AM

China plays an essential role in any global climate solution | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/593118-china-plays-an-essential-role-in-any-global-climate-solution)

Duh. It is remarkably how much CO2 China generates and the figure continues to grow as other countries make some effort to limit or even reduce (somewhat) their amounts.

China increased emissions since 2005 by around 70 percent (https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-2020-greenhouse-gas-emissions-estimates-for-china/), currently producing nearly 14 gigatons (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/) of CO2. In comparison, U.S. annual output is around five gigatons (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-from-1999/). The U.S. accounts for around 11 percent (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/chinas-greenhouse-gas-emissions-exceed-us-developed-world-report.html) of global emissions, while China comes in at 27 percent.           

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 05:36:12 AM

New Nuclear Power Plants Are Unlikely to Stop the Climate Crisis - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-nuclear-power-plants-are-unlikely-to-stop-the-climate-crisis/)

The exercise offered both bad news and good. The bad news is that keeping the rise in temperature below 2° C is going to be very hard and holding it under 1.5° probably impossible. The good news is that the challenge can be met—if we implement a large portfolio of solutions, the most important of which are eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies and putting a stiff price on carbon.

OK, so this approach obviously makes power much more expensive, but how can it do something about climate change?  The details were not mentioned, it talks about nuclear not being part of the solution, which basically leaves wind and solar.  I would love to see the projections on how W&S are going to do something significant in the near term.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 05:39:26 AM

Georgia Power plans to double renewables, ditch all coal - E&E News (eenews.net) (https://www.eenews.net/articles/georgia-power-to-double-renewables-exit-all-coal/)

Georgia Power plans to shutter 12 coal units, totaling about 3,500 megawatts, by 2028. It wants to replace that electricity with a combination of renewables as well as 2,356 MW of natural-gas-fired power that it plans to buy from power plants that are already running. For context, once two additional nuclear reactors at Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle start producing electricity, the total 4,536 MW from four units there will power up to 1 million homes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2022, 07:29:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 04:27:21 AM

China plays an essential role in any global climate solution | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/593118-china-plays-an-essential-role-in-any-global-climate-solution)

Duh. It is remarkably how much CO2 China generates and the figure continues to grow as other countries make some effort to limit or even reduce (somewhat) their amounts.

China increased emissions since 2005 by around 70 percent (https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-2020-greenhouse-gas-emissions-estimates-for-china/), currently producing nearly 14 gigatons (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/) of CO2. In comparison, U.S. annual output is around five gigatons (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-from-1999/). The U.S. accounts for around 11 percent (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/chinas-greenhouse-gas-emissions-exceed-us-developed-world-report.html) of global emissions, while China comes in at 27 percent.           

Now do India.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 08:14:29 AM

India is getting up there of course, still shy of the US, but growing.

China emitted 27% of the world's greenhouse gases in 2019. The US was the second-largest emitter at 11% while India was third with 6.6% of emissions, the think tank said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2022, 09:27:00 AM

57 degrees here in the banana belt - 40s for the 10-day forecast with no precip in sight

gonna make it halfway through Feb with VERY little winter weather!!!  Which is nice

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/273583635_10159674185824297_5769598337982114508_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=WxnwCGoq91YAX9QGWe9&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT-PpyFu6HAs8ff0_6kizgqZh4l_esLgiO8gCbR21X5YVg&oe=620679D7)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 08, 2022, 09:32:43 AM

I'll sure take this year over last year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2022, 07:44:25 PM

European fusion reactor sets record for sustained energy | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/european-fusion-reactor-sets-record-sustained-energy?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Facebook)

In experiments culminating the 40-year run of the Joint European Torus (JET), the world’s largest fusion reactor, researchers announced today they have smashed the record for producing controlled fusion energy. On 21 December 2021, the U.K.-based JET heated a gas of hydrogen isotopes to 150 million degrees Celsius and held it steady for 5 seconds while nuclei fused together, releasing 59 megajoules (MJ) of energy—roughly twice the kinetic energy of a fully laden semitrailer truck traveling at 160 kilometers per hour. The energy in the pulse is more than 2.5 times the previous record of 22 MJ, set by JET 25 years earlier. “To see shots in which it sustains high power for a full 5 seconds is amazing,” says Steven Cowley, director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL).

JET’s achievement doesn’t mean fusion-generated electricity will flow into the grid anytime soon, however. Researchers had to put roughly three times as much energy into the gas as the reaction produced. But the result gives them confidence in the design of ITER, a giant fusion reactor under construction in France, which is supposed to pump out at least 10 times as much energy as is fed in. “This is very good news for ITER,” says Alberto Loarte, head of ITER’s science division. “It strongly confirms our strategy.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 10, 2022, 07:29:41 AM

Cold here again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 10, 2022, 09:23:55 AM

Should hit mid 70s here over the next couple days.  Overnight lows down into the low 40s though.  Typical Feb for us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 10, 2022, 09:33:12 AM

Started off at 43, but will peak at 74 later. Big swing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2022, 10:06:04 AM

We have three days ahead now sunny and in the 60s, great walking weather.

I do like winters here mostly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 10, 2022, 10:07:04 AM

Another good one...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2022, 10:11:21 AM

Our kids in France are moving to San Diego, they are on a scouting mission this month for a house, they have four boys.  They seem pretty excited.  My C-bus daughter is moving to Vancouver, BC this year also, so with my step son in SF, we'll have a Pacific presence in the tribe.  That leaves one in Austin and one in Marseille.

They said they would not sell their house in France, something about taxes.  It's a decent house in a tiny village about 50 miles from Paris, probably worth nearly a mil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on February 10, 2022, 12:19:38 PM

Hit 79 yesterday.  Lows have been in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 10, 2022, 12:24:43 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 10, 2022, 10:11:21 AM

Our kids in France are moving to San Diego, they are on a scouting mission this month for a house, they have four boys.  They seem pretty excited.  My C-bus daughter is moving to Vancouver, BC this year also, so with my step son in SF, we'll have a Pacific presence in the tribe.  That leaves one in Austin and one in Marseille.

They said they would not sell their house in France, something about taxes.  It's a decent house in a tiny village about 50 miles from Paris, probably worth nearly a mil.

Must have a hell of a nest egg.Pick up a family of 6 drop them in prime real estate in Cali and hang on to million Dollar digs outside of Paris.Do these folks work at Proctor & Gamble ?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 10, 2022, 01:18:58 PM

Smart move.

Macron calls for 14 new reactors in nuclear 'renaissance' (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/macron-calls-for-14-new-reactors-in-nuclear-renaissance/ar-AATHAty?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=msedgntp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 10, 2022, 01:24:13 PM

Germany will be most displeased.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2022, 01:59:11 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 10, 2022, 12:24:43 PM

Must have a hell of a nest egg.Pick up a family of 6 drop them in prime real estate in Cali and hang on to million Dollar digs outside of Paris.Do these folks work at Proctor & Gamble ?

Nope, and it's Procter.  The husband is a CIA trained chef, who was a chef briefly and realized it's for the crazy folks.  He works for some insurance company.  I'd guess said company is assisting with the move.  They asked me to get them a room for 13 days in La Jolla but everything was booked for that period.  I got  them something at LAX for the night they arrive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2022, 02:13:20 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 10, 2022, 01:24:13 PM

Germany will be most displeased.

Germany has to buy power from France, which is ironic indeed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 10, 2022, 02:35:27 PM

Ach du lieber!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 12, 2022, 05:42:48 AM

Winter is coming: Researchers uncover the surprising cause of the little ice age: Cold era, lasting from early 15th to mid-19th centuries, triggered by unusually warm conditions -- ScienceDaily (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/12/211215142052.htm)

Maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2022, 03:24:32 PM

Scientists say that urine diversion would have huge environmental and public-health benefits if deployed on a large scale around the world. That’s in part because urine is rich in nutrients that, instead of polluting water bodies, could go towards fertilizing crops or feed into industrial processes. According to Simha’s estimates, humans produce enough urine to replace about one-quarter of current nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers worldwide; it also contains potassium and many micronutrients (see ‘What’s in urine’). On top of that, not flushing urine down the drain could save vast amounts of water and reduce some of the strain on ageing and overloaded sewer systems.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00338-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00338-6)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 13, 2022, 03:35:32 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 13, 2022, 03:24:32 PM

Scientists say that urine diversion would have huge environmental and public-health benefits if deployed on a large scale around the world. That’s in part because urine is rich in nutrients that, instead of polluting water bodies, could go towards fertilizing crops or feed into industrial processes. According to Simha’s estimates, humans produce enough urine to replace about one-quarter of current nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers worldwide; it also contains potassium and many micronutrients (see ‘What’s in urine’). On top of that, not flushing urine down the drain could save vast amounts of water and reduce some of the strain on ageing and overloaded sewer systems.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00338-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00338-6)

So you're saying I need a pot to piss in and a window to throw it out of (into an approved collection receptacle, of course)?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2022, 03:51:23 PM

yup, I thought it may be interesting to the chemists in the group

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2022, 06:12:07 PM

Yup, we use tons of fertilizer on crops to replace what is removed and then eaten and then throw away the fertilizer in our waste materials and pay in fact to try and remediate them.  we can get nitrogen from the air, but phosphorus and potassium are another story.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 13, 2022, 09:54:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 13, 2022, 06:12:07 PM

Yup, we use tons of fertilizer on crops to replace what is removed and then eaten and then throw away the fertilizer in our waste materials and pay in fact to try and remediate them.  we can get nitrogen from the air, but phosphorus and potassium are another story.

need more bananas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 14, 2022, 08:03:54 AM

It has been below freezing for most of Jan/Feb it is 8 deg right now had at least 3'' more inches yesterday on top of the 2" the nite before.Albeit light/fluffy the skiers and Ice Fisherman are having a blast.The snow has been on the ground since just after new yrs and hasn't melted even though it climbed to 40 deg one day and rained I can think of 2-3 days it's gotten over 30 in the last 2 weeks.Thankfully there's no wind or it'd be below zero.Cold doesn't bother me it's the sno making sure you get your aerobics shoveling
                            🥶 🌨️ 🧊

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2022, 08:27:09 AM

Man that's cold.  Glad you don't mind it though.  As always, it takes all kinds!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 08:32:52 AM

The wind bothered me as much as the cold.  I don't miss it, at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2022, 08:54:05 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 14, 2022, 08:03:54 AM

It has been below freezing for most of Jan/Feb it is 8 deg right now had at least 3'' more inches yesterday on top of the 2" the nite before.Albeit light/fluffy the skiers and Ice Fisherman are having a blast.The snow has been on the ground since just after new yrs and hasn't melted even though it climbed to 40 deg one day and rained I can think of 2-3 days it's gotten over 30 in the last 2 weeks.Thankfully there's no wind or it'd be below zero.Cold doesn't bother me it's the sno making sure you get your aerobics shoveling
                            🥶 🌨️ 🧊

not moving there
don't care how good the beer is

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 10:03:31 AM

Our heat wave has subsided. Only a high of 76 today and it'll cool off to the 60s later in the week. Brrrrrrr.....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2022, 10:25:45 AM

Nice outlook here.

(https://i.imgur.com/CYVZzvY.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 10:34:41 AM

I'm fine with our winters here, in general, it gets cold enough to know it's winter, and then turns nice for a few days.  It's chilly right now, 39°F.

But sunny.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2022, 10:37:29 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/S8yKqZx.png)

About as good as I can ask for in the middle of Feb

I'll take it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2022, 11:44:44 AM

BP CEO says oil and gas giant is a 'greening company' (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/15/bp-ceo-says-oil-and-gas-giant-is-a-greening-company.html)


Huh.  I don't see how they get to net zero by 2050, but obviously it's facile to make promises 30 years out.  I suppose they could completely reinvent themselves, but I don't expect that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2022, 07:11:33 AM

Macron bets on nuclear in carbon-neutrality push, announces new reactors | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/macron-bets-nuclear-carbon-neutrality-push-announces-new-reactors-2022-02-10/)

France to build up to 14 new nuclear reactors by 2050, says Macron | France | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/10/france-to-build-up-to-14-new-nuclear-reactors-by-2050-says-macron)

When the French make sense, it's a sign, of something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2022, 07:17:06 AM

Unreal.

3 states with shuttered nuclear plants see emissions rise (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/3-states-with-shuttered-nuclear-plants-see-emissions-rise/ar-AAU0sko?ocid=msedgntp&li=BBnb7Kz)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 18, 2022, 09:39:51 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2022, 08:54:05 AM

not moving there
don't care how good the beer is

Lost  more than a few golf courses the last 10-15  yrs to what they call "development". On wednesday got up to 51(been alot more sno if cold) and then it started raining and yesterday in the 30s that turned to sleet/ice which kicked on Lake Effect sno machine.Winds coming down from Canuckland across the frozen lakes as Old Man Winter continues to stop by unannounced.Someone needs to put that bastard in a box until next November.We had snow two weeks after Beisbol that CD is so fantas......... season started last spring,might even have been the end of April.At least 3-4" more of the fun stuff gonna have some coffee and Chili be firing up the '80 TORO

                                           
              (https://i.imgur.com/6S96Frf.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 03:07:58 PM

A major Atlantic current is at a critical transition point | NOVA | PBS (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/amoc-shutdown-gulf-stream-climate/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1645212000&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1yURhinMv9XC02gg9XqqA_eVrEY0MxHTfwaGmVgTILlvmprX4dy5MgAAw)

Possibly really bad news.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2022, 03:13:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 03:07:58 PM

A major Atlantic current is at a critical transition point | NOVA | PBS (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/amoc-shutdown-gulf-stream-climate/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1645212000&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1yURhinMv9XC02gg9XqqA_eVrEY0MxHTfwaGmVgTILlvmprX4dy5MgAAw)

Possibly really bad news.

number 1 not caused by man

number 2 not a damn thing we can do about it

so pass the wine and enjoy life

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 03:15:09 PM

I personally would not claim it is not possibly due to man's activities.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2022, 03:17:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 03:15:09 PM

I personally would not claim it is not possibly due to man's activities.

of course you wouldnt

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 18, 2022, 03:58:17 PM

Ends up we recieved 3 1/2' over nite

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 07:11:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 03:07:58 PM

A major Atlantic current is at a critical transition point | NOVA | PBS (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/amoc-shutdown-gulf-stream-climate/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1645212000&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1yURhinMv9XC02gg9XqqA_eVrEY0MxHTfwaGmVgTILlvmprX4dy5MgAAw)

Possibly really bad news.

If this happens, it would put Europe in a deep freeze, I read about this several years ago and then I had read it had been dispelled as a possibility.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2022, 07:25:52 AM

Yeah, I read about this a few years ago too. Might even be a post on it here on this thread, but I'm not digging.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2022, 11:09:45 AM

Got down to 14 over nite with 30 mph winds making it below 0.Mercury says 18 now but with gusts much colder.But sunny and got damn near sun blind shoveling just came in I feed the birds during extremes- Robins pretty smart all the others fly away until I leave.they have it figured out that this lump is no threat and will actually reward them with 1st dibs.The one robin actually approaches me when I come out - pretty cool

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2022, 12:09:12 PM

Robins?!?!?

it's springtime in Ohio!!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:07:30 PM

Well finally it's 53 today maybe 60s tommorow then of course twenty then teens later in the week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on February 21, 2022, 12:10:18 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:07:30 PM

Well finally it's 53 today maybe 60s tommorow then of course twenty then teens later in the week

60's in February? Ribs on the barbie already

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on February 21, 2022, 12:10:26 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:07:30 PM

Well finally it's 53 today maybe 60s tommorow then of course twenty then teens later in the week

Welcome to Ohio.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:23:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 19, 2022, 12:09:12 PM

Robins?!?!?

it's springtime in Ohio!!!!

They don't really migrate they just move to the woodlots most do anyway and eat dried /frozen fruit or seeds.In the nice weather they eat insects and worms.But with around 3 feet of snow they couldn't dig that deep even if they were available.When I volunteer over at the food pantry people leave the whole dates/prunes for the most part - if they are past date I take them home and chop them up raisin size and the Robins love them.

Turns out you can also feed birds dry rice - which i always thought was deadly because of it expanding but not so. As the guy from an Autubon avian site had said rice grows in the wild tell that to those rice farmers who lose a sizeable % to the Birds every year.The rest they lose to Budweiser ;D . They did some experiments and rice expands no more than 33%,wet birdseed expands to 40 %

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2022, 12:28:39 PM

must have mild winters there if the Robins can survive

;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2022, 12:29:23 PM

66 here yesterday

(https://i.imgur.com/W1ypNHQ.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:39:08 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 21, 2022, 12:10:18 PM

60's in February? Ribs on the barbie already

Super bowl sunday a friend had a card party and he smoked some briskett he was up to like 3am then his brother took over. Because it got down to the teens that nite and the north wind blowing no way he was able to keep the heat consistent @ around 225.Had i known I would have had him move it the oven at about 200. The taste was great but not nearly all the fat/tissue renderd out so pretty damn tough.He wasn' there actually to tell him later. Everytime he smoked it earlier in the season it was as good as it gets - he has the rub down though

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:40:13 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 21, 2022, 12:29:23 PM

66 here yesterday

(https://i.imgur.com/W1ypNHQ.jpg)

Good to see you exersizing proper like,where's the clubs?or just working hard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:44:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 21, 2022, 12:28:39 PM

must have mild winters there if the Robins can survive

;)

Maybe a lot of them haven't,I know alot of shrubs/hedges/bushes and such have edibles in them.The Robins actually like those seeds/berries on poison ivy/sumac which are high off the ground

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on February 21, 2022, 12:46:15 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 21, 2022, 12:39:08 PM

Super bowl sunday a friend had a card party and he smoked some briskett he was up to like 3am then his brother took over. Because it got down to the teens that nite and the north wind blowing no way he was able to keep the heat consistent @ around 225.Had i known I would have had him move it the oven at about 200. The taste was great but not nearly all the fat/tissue renderd out so pretty damn tough.He wasn' there actually to tell him later. Everytime he smoked it earlier in the season it was as good as it gets - he has the rub down though

takes me at least 10 beers to properly smoke a brisket

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 21, 2022, 12:58:22 PM

Yeah a brisket has absorbed about all the smoke it's going to, in the first 5-6 hours.  At that point there's pretty much zero difference in flavor between the smoker and the oven.

And even when it dips down into the 40s or 50s here in Austin, I find it more difficult to smoke on my stick-burning offset.  Can't imagine trying to do it down in the teens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 21, 2022, 04:54:08 PM

Good day for golf today. And yesterday too, for that matter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 21, 2022, 10:44:31 PM

I was thinking about them robins here today, while I was hosing out/vacuumming my garage floor.   Need to position my reflectors and other foreign objects (which consists of using my kids old toys, pompons  with sparkles/color) for strategic placement under the soffits, on the moldings at our portico entrance.  old rubber purple fishing worms do the trick too.   Bird spikes alone don't get the job done.

They will be making their moves here in the next month, followed by the ducks which love to snuggle and nest between my boxwoods (best use of jarred minced garlic I can think of).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 22, 2022, 09:18:57 AM

Mid afternoon high of 84 predicted here for today.

Same time tomorrow it's supposed to be 36. 

Winter's last gasp in Central Texico, I suppose.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 22, 2022, 09:51:59 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on February 21, 2022, 10:44:31 PM

I was thinking about them robins here today, while I was hosing out/vacuumming my garage floor.  Need to position my reflectors and other foreign objects (which consists of using my kids old toys, pompons  with sparkles/color) for strategic placement under the soffits, on the moldings at our portico entrance.  old rubber purple fishing worms do the trick too.  Bird spikes alone don't get the job done.

They will be making their moves here in the next month, followed by the ducks which love to snuggle and nest between my boxwoods (best use of jarred minced garlic I can think of).

Bastard - let the little fella's nest under your soffitting on a light - i do.After all you built a home on what was once their woods - ;D. They could die trying to eat those - really.Don't make me come up there,a friend told me years ago he opened his tackle box to clean out before we left for Quebec.Anyway he left it open in the driveway went in side for awhile came out and there was a Robin tugging at one of them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 22, 2022, 09:54:06 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 22, 2022, 09:18:57 AM

Winter's last gasp in Central Texico, I suppose.

We had snow wll into April,perhaps May last year - i remember it was a month after the opener - didn't last long but still

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 22, 2022, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 22, 2022, 09:54:06 AM

We had snow wll into April,perhaps May last year - i remember it was a month after the opener - didn't last long but still

About the latest we ever get a freeze here is early March, the first week.  After that is starts warming up for good.

And a "freeze" here usually means an overnight low below freezing, with daytime temps warming up into the 40s or higher.

Aside from last year's unprecedented Icepocalypse that lasted 9 days at my house, we rarely get a hard freeze of more than a day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2022, 01:07:24 PM

Corn ethanol no better—and probably worse—than burning gasoline, study says | Ars Technica (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/02/us-biofuel-mandate-likely-increased-carbon-emissions-inflated-crop-prices-20-30/?fbclid=IwAR2q4tH0FlwC-GN0rHB4OAAHHUhe_vXU9HeZsVXCe3-q_L8ZmSXNWz_2bic)

We have now had multiple studies showing this is a bad policy and yet ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 24, 2022, 08:33:55 PM

good for Iowa's and Nebraska's economy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on February 25, 2022, 03:05:21 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 22, 2022, 01:07:24 PM

Corn ethanol no better—and probably worse—than burning gasoline, study says | Ars Technica (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/02/us-biofuel-mandate-likely-increased-carbon-emissions-inflated-crop-prices-20-30/?fbclid=IwAR2q4tH0FlwC-GN0rHB4OAAHHUhe_vXU9HeZsVXCe3-q_L8ZmSXNWz_2bic)

We have now had multiple studies showing this is a bad policy and yet ...

Quote from: FearlessF on February 24, 2022, 08:33:55 PM

good for Iowa's and Nebraska's economy

Not meant fo drinking FF.Been in the 20s the last 2 days got about 3" of very lite sno today.These weather forcastres are ASS.Suppose to 15% chance or less of course it's been light flurries since 10 am then at noon they post 90-100% FRAUDS. Get into that line of work for a stress free guaranteed pay and not held accountable

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:33:10 PM

The Hyperloop Hyperdream Is Hyperdead (jalopnik.com) (https://jalopnik.com/the-hyperloop-hyperdream-is-hyperdead-1848585510?utm_campaign=Jalopnik&utm_content=1645891222&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR31ebZpphkmYYJ00IqrheMUQ4wWlPO_RxIRrWD9ECpg79pdP4qSNsCgvV0)

I'm not much of a fan of HSR either in the US for a number of reasons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 28, 2022, 07:19:24 AM

Climate: UN report on adaptation warns of grave and mounting threat (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/climate-un-report-on-adaptation-warns-of-grave-and-mounting-threat.html)

I predict more such reports and more meetings to TALK about this, and we'll see very little tangible actually being done.

CO2 levels will continue to rise year after year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 28, 2022, 10:01:04 AM

65 and sunny predicted here this afternoon

nice morning

March looks to come in as a lamb.  Mid 60s and sunny the next few days

possibly heavy wet snow as March goes out like a lion

We need the moisture badly

possibility of some rain here Saturday

one local golf course is opening this week to make a few bucks
not much revenue since November

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 28, 2022, 10:21:22 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court is hearing a case its conservative majority could use to hobble Biden administration efforts to combat climate change.

The administration already is dealing with congressional refusal to enact the climate change proposals in President Joe Biden’s Build Better Back plan.

Now the justices, in arguments Monday, are taking up an appeal from 19 mostly Republican-led states and coal companies over the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to limit carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.

The court took on the case even though there is no current EPA plan in place to deal with carbon output from power plants, a development that has alarmed environmental groups. They worry that the court could preemptively undermine whatever plan Biden’s team develops to address power plant emissions. Biden has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by the end of the decade.


A broad ruling by the court also could weaken regulatory efforts that extend well beyond the environment, including consumer protections, workplace safety and public health. Several conservative justices have criticized what they see as the unchecked power of federal agencies.

Those concerns were evident in the court’s orders throwing out two Biden administration policies aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19. Last summer, the court’s 6-3 conservative majority ended a pause on evictions over unpaid rent. In January, the same six justices blocked a requirement that workers at large employers be vaccinated or test regularly and wear a mask on the job.

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, speaking at a recent event in Washington, cast the power plant case as about who should make the rules. “Should it be unelected bureaucrats, or should it be the people’s representatives in Congress?” Morrisey said. West Virginia is leading the states opposed to broad EPA authority.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2022, 09:15:03 AM

Supposed to hit 78°F here today., 81°F on Sunday.

Local warming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 03, 2022, 09:29:02 AM

was 82 in Southwestern Nebraska yesterday

nearly had to turn on the AC in the truck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2022, 09:36:28 AM

I'm gonna go ahead and predict we won't see freezing temps in Austin again until next winter.

(https://i.imgur.com/t5ctoA3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 04, 2022, 04:54:36 PM

Down to 20 last nite and ground covered with the white stuff.Could be in the 60s tommorow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 06, 2022, 08:04:09 AM

2nd straight days of 60 degree weather & sunny.That'll change come opening day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 06, 2022, 08:06:17 AM

Had a neighborly cookout last night with the false spring. Kids and dogs wore themselves out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2022, 08:28:51 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 06, 2022, 08:04:09 AM

2nd straight days of 60 degree weather & sunny.That'll change come opening day

It could well be 95°F on "opening day".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 06, 2022, 08:45:29 AM

Ya and we could appear on the cover of GQ

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 06, 2022, 08:45:57 AM

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Six people were killed Saturday when a tornado swept through central Iowa, damaging buildings and knocking down trees and power lines, authorities said.

Emergency management officials in Madison County said four were injured in addition to those killed when the tornado touched down in the area southwest of Des Moines at about 4:30 p.m. Among those killed were children and adults.

Madison County Emergency Management Director Diogenes Ayala said 25 to 30 homes were badly damaged by the tornado.

“This is the worst anyone has seen in a very long time,” he said.

Officials didn’t identify those killed but said they were not all in the same location.


The National Weather Service in Des Moines tweeted later Saturday that initial photos and videos from the damage around the community of Winterset suggested it was at least an EF-3 tornado, capable of causing severe damage, on the Enhanced Fujita scale. It said weather service teams would investigate the damage Sunday and further assess a potential rating.

Thunderstorms that spawned tornadoes moved through much of Iowa from the afternoon until Saturday night with storms also causing damage in the Des Moines suburb of Norwalk, areas just east of Des Moines and other areas of eastern Iowa.

Officials reported a number of homes were damaged, roads were blocked by downed lines and tree branches were shredded by the strong winds. Photos tweeted on social media showed downed trees, debris and damaged roofs and vehicles. At one point, power outages affected about 10,000 in the Des Moines area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2022, 09:27:09 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 06, 2022, 08:45:29 AM

Ya and we could appear on the cover of GQ

OD could be in July.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2022, 11:15:34 AM

How war in Ukraine and climate change are shaping the nuclear industry (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/05/how-war-in-ukraine-and-climate-change-are-shaping-the-nuclear-industry.html)

At the same time, nations are coming to realize they can’t meet their climate goals with renewables, like wind and solar, alone. Luongo says there was a “sea change” in sentiment about nuclear at the COP 26 climate conference last year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 08, 2022, 08:56:25 AM

U.S. added less new wind power in 2021 than the previous year — why? (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/us-added-less-new-wind-power-in-2021-than-the-previous-year-why.html)

The firm said Monday (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/developers-add-nearly-13-gw-of-new-us-wind-capacity-in-2021-69148317) that developers added around 12.9 gigawatts of new projects in 2021, a 20% reduction from 2020′s additions. That year, a record 16 gigawatts of wind capacity was added.

By way of comparison, the U.S. has a total generating capability of about 1,200 gigawatts, according to the Public Power Association (https://www.publicpower.org/resource/americas-electricity-generating-capacity).



So, with a total capacity of 1200, if we add say 20 GW per year, it would take a while to replace that 1200 of course.  We're creeping up here, not really replacing much, as power needs are also increasing, and will increase as EVs become a real thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 08:21:15 AM

Energy-related CO2 emissions hit highest ever level in 2021: IEA (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/energy-related-co2-emissions-hit-highest-ever-level-in-2021-iea.html)

he IEA found energy-related global CO2 emissions increased by 6% in 2021 to reach a record high of 36.3 billion metric tons. In an analysis published Tuesday, the Paris-based organization pinpointed coal use as being the main driver behind the growth.

At some point, the hand wringing about this is going to meet reality, and folks MIGHT, just MIGHT, start being realistic about the future.  Maybe.  I expect more hand wringing for now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 09, 2022, 09:40:48 AM

How so? Do you mean developing better solutions or just realizing the rest of the world isn't doing much if anything at all.Or both

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 10:20:02 AM

I mean the practicable reality is these goals folks set are optics, they aren't going to be met.  I wondered when that would be so obvious it would become accepted generally.  The first part of this is to report data and wring hands and say "WE HAVE TO DO MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!" and the second step is "Huh, we really can't do much more, so this is our situation, maybe we should step back a bit and think about our approach."

Germany really tried to hit this hard over the past decade, "Energiewiend" or however they spell it.  The actual results for them is near catastrophic, for minimal reductions in CO2 generation, and they did about as much as anyone could do.  It cost them heavily, for a very small "benefit".

Cost:benefit is important.  Folks will slowly start to explain reality to folks instead of signing pointless ridiculous agreements thinking that was a something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 10:23:49 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 10:20:02 AM

I mean the practicable reality is these goals folks set are optics, they aren't going to be met.  I wondered when that would be so obvious it would become accepted generally.  The first part of this is to report data and wring hands and say "WE HAVE TO DO MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!" and the second step is "Huh, we really can't do much more, so this is our situation, maybe we should step back a bit and think about our approach."

Germany really tried to hit this hard over the past decade, "Energiewiend" or however they spell it.  The actual results for them is near catastrophic, for minimal reductions in CO2 generation, and they did about as much as anyone could do.  It cost them heavily, for a very small "benefit".

Cost:benefit is important.  Folks will slowly start to explain reality to folks instead of signing pointless ridiculous agreements thinking that was a something.

I disagree. To much effort is made for "cost benefit" analyses that really don't make any sense. It is too much "ooh, we can't possibly do anything." Paralysis by analysis. Fairly standard stuff for any big problem that is hard to solve.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 10:26:59 AM

You can disagree, but the math is against you.  My comments really relate to when "leaders" and "experts" confess we're not only NOT doing enough, we CAN'T do enough (sans nuclear).  I can post report after report about CO2 growth over time and how little anything real has been, or could be, done about it that is significant.

I can also cherry pick isolated situations about how "Hamden, Washington" is CARBON NEUTRAL today!!!  Fairy dust.

I don't see a practicable solution here, at all, which is why no one has proposed one anywhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 10:42:13 AM

World CO₂ emissions are projected to increase
EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2021 (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo) (IEO2021) Reference case projects that if current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 2020 through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth. However, projected future growth in energy-related CO₂ emissions is not evenly distributed across the world and the majority of the projected future growth in energy-related CO₂ emissions is among the group of countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (http://www.oecd.org/).
(https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/images/Environment-Emissions-Outlook-WORLD.png)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2021 (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/), Reference case, October 2021
Note: OECD is Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (http://www.oecd.org/).
More data (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=10-IEO2021&region=0-0&cases=Reference&start=2010&end=2050&f=A&linechart=Reference-d080819.11-10-IEO2019~Reference-d080819.25-10-IEO2019~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Reference-d210719.11-10-IEO2021~Reference-d210719.25-10-IEO2021~Reference-d210719.26-10-IEO2021&map=&ctype=linechart&sourcekey=0)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 12:04:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 10:26:59 AM

You can disagree, but the math is against you.  My comments really relate to when "leaders" and "experts" confess we're not only NOT doing enough, we CAN'T do enough (sans nuclear).  I can post report after report about CO2 growth over time and how little anything real has been, or could be, done about it that is significant.

I can also cherry pick isolated situations about how "Hamden, Washington" is CARBON NEUTRAL today!!!  Fairy dust.

I don't see a practicable solution here, at all, which is why no one has proposed one anywhere.

Well, that's the trick. Even in the post about math being against me, you have to add the qualifier about nuclear power, which is like saying you can't travel to California from Maine in a day (sans planes).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 12:10:10 PM

If you think nuclear power is a practicable solution here, well, have at it.  It may be a technical piece of the puzzle, but NIMBY is not going to allow it and it isn't viewed as "green" by most folks most incensed over climate change.  Germany is trying to shut theirs down.  The US is slowly moving there as plants get too old and no new ones outside Vogtle are being built.

MAYBE SMRs might be something, in what, a decade?  Maybe?  When will the next US nuclear power plant outside Vogtle and the military come on line?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 12:14:27 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 12:10:10 PM

If you think nuclear power is a practicable solution here, well, have at it.  It may be a technical piece of the puzzle, but NIMBY is not going to allow it and it isn't viewed as "green" by most folks most incensed over climate change.  Germany is trying to shut theirs down.  The US is slowly moving there as plants get too old and no new ones outside Vogtle are being built.

MAYBE SMRs might be something, in what, a decade?  Maybe?  When will the next US nuclear power plant outside Vogtle and the military come on line?

China has something like 228 nuclear reactors in development. The issue isn't whether is practicable, it's whether there is anyone who cares enough to make it happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 12:32:36 PM

In the western world, it isn't happening.  The reasons are pretty obvious.

Making Sense of China’s Pledge to Stop Building Coal-Fired Power Plants Abroad | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org) (https://www.cfr.org/blog/making-sense-chinas-pledge-stop-building-coal-fired-power-plants-abroad#:~:text=China continues to add coal,percent of the global total.)

hina continues to add coal-fired power plants within its borders, bringing (https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/summary-data/) forty-one gigawatts of coal power on line in 2020 alone, which accounted for seventy-five percent of the global total. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 12:56:02 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 10:23:49 AM

I disagree. To much effort is made for "cost benefit" analyses that really don't make any sense. It is too much "ooh, we can't possibly do anything." Paralysis by analysis. Fairly standard stuff for any big problem that is hard to solve.

The problem with the cost benefit analysis is that we are WOEFULLY bad at defining the benefit...

If the benefit is avoiding a scenario where the world's climate destabilizes to the point where we can only produce enough food to support ~1B people by 2100, which would lead to mass starvation, likely wars over access to natural resources, and the deaths of billions? Well, then any cost is worth bearing. 

If the benefit is avoiding a scenario where the weather gets hotter but we can still grow food, where some people in marginal areas are displaced due to changes but it happens over decades and those people can be managed and absorbed into new environs, and the effects of dealing with climate changed are something we manage and live with vs something catastrophic? Well, then there isn't much reason to completely remake our energy supply at massive cost for that benefit. 

So... Which is it? 

And please, show your work. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:02:36 PM

Democrats are divided on using nuclear energy to stop climate change - The Verge (https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/5/20850763/climate-change-cnn-town-hall-democrat-candidates-nuclear-energy-2020-elections)

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) calls nuclear energy a “false solution.” As the only candidate at the town hall calling for complete abstinence from nuclear energy, Sanders faced some of the most direct questions on the topic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:04:00 PM

My cost: benefit analysis is this:

1.  Spend $x on reducing CO2 by Y amount.
2.  That would reduce global warming by Z°C.

Is that worth it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 01:11:46 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 12:56:02 PM

The problem with the cost benefit analysis is that we are WOEFULLY bad at defining the benefit...

If the benefit is avoiding a scenario where the world's climate destabilizes to the point where we can only produce enough food to support ~1B people by 2100, which would lead to mass starvation, likely wars over access to natural resources, and the deaths of billions? Well, then any cost is worth bearing.

If the benefit is avoiding a scenario where the weather gets hotter but we can still grow food, where some people in marginal areas are displaced due to changes but it happens over decades and those people can be managed and absorbed into new environs, and the effects of dealing with climate changed are something we manage and live with vs something catastrophic? Well, then there isn't much reason to completely remake our energy supply at massive cost for that benefit.

So... Which is it?

And please, show your work.

Well, right - the costs and benefits are almost impossible to ascertain with any degree of confidence. "Epic collapse to not that big a deal, or maybe somewhere in between." The costs could be "not that much or maybe shut down the economy." It's not a great place to due much analysis.

To keep it simpler - we are certain that we are raising the proportion of carbon in the atmosphere (and the oceans). It seems very likely that this proportion will continue to rise given current policies. Now, I suppose reasonable minds can differ, but in my opinion larges changes to the composition of the atmosphere are bad and should be minimized to what extent we can, given how reliant we are on the atmosphere and the uncertainty of outcomes in changing it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 09, 2022, 01:20:45 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 12:56:02 PM

So... Which is it?

And please, show your work.

You'll need China/India/Russia for starters to show theirs also for an accurate account.Is that even possible? Screw Bernie build the bad boys and check for faults first

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:22:25 PM

Congress will propose to spend $X on climate change, so that figure is KNOWN here in the US, aside from private spending.

Then the BENEFIT would be as I say, CO2 reductions, and one can then use the models to calculate how much BENEFIT that would have on global warming.

This isn't something unclear or even difficult.  It's calculable.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 01:26:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:22:25 PM

Congress will propose to spend $X on climate change, so that figure is KNOWN here in the US, aside from private spending.

Then the BENEFIT would be as I say, CO2 reductions, and one can then use the models to calculate how much BENEFIT that would have on global warming.

This isn't something unclear or even difficult.  It's calculable. 

Yes, but that only gives you a very small part of the costs and benefits. So it is something, but not a particularly helpful something. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:27:16 PM

Despite being asked twice to clarify exactly where she stands on nuclear energy outside of its waste problem, Harris managed to side-step the question. “My bottom line is that I’m not going to allow the federal government to go in and impose its priorities on any state, it’s going to have to be those states to make that decision,” she responded, pointing again to the battle over the fate of Yucca Mountain.

Neither Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) nor Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) explicitly mentions nuclear energy in their climate plans. But when pressed during the town hall, both pledged not to build new reactors. Warren said she supports weaning the US off its existing nuclear energy plants by 2035. Klobuchar said she would “make sure [existing power plants are] safe and figure out what upgrades we have to make to those plants.”

Former Vice President Joe Biden is curious enough to throw an undisclosed amount of money into nuclear R&D. He took heat for everything from Obama’s track record on climate to an upcoming fundraiser (https://www.votwitter.com/2019/9/4/20850323/joe-biden-fundraiser-fossil-fuel-andrew-goldman) co-hosted by the co-founder of a natural gas company. That was enough to keep the focus away from his stance on nuclear, but according to his climate plan, he wants “to look at issues, ranging from cost to safety to waste disposal systems, that remains an ongoing challenge with nuclear power today.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:28:27 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 01:26:54 PM

Yes, but that only gives you a very small part of the costs and benefits. So it is something, but not a particularly helpful something.

It is precisely on point.  There is no other benefit to be had.  Temperature rise is THE problem here, the genesis of every other issue, and one can calculate how much  your spending will ameliorate it.

And obviously the nuclear issue is far from easy to solve.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 01:44:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:28:27 PM

It is precisely on point.  There is no other benefit to be had.  Temperature rise is THE problem here, the genesis of every other issue, and one can calculate how much  your spending will ameliorate it.

And obviously the nuclear issue is far from easy to solve. 

Well, it's one part of the problem, certainly one that gets lots of attention. The pH of the ocean is another. What are the effects of that? I dunno. Doesn't sound great. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:47:58 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 01:44:45 PM

Well, it's one part of the problem, certainly one that gets lots of attention. The pH of the ocean is another. What are the effects of that? I dunno. Doesn't sound great.

The pH of oceans is directly related to CO2 generation.  But one can at least calculate how much benefit in terms of temperature one's plans provide.

You could throw in ocean pH as another benefit though I agree the impact there is less clear cut.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 02:07:13 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 01:11:46 PM

Well, right - the costs and benefits are almost impossible to ascertain with any degree of confidence. "Epic collapse to not that big a deal, or maybe somewhere in between." The costs could be "not that much or maybe shut down the economy." It's not a great place to due much analysis.

To keep it simpler - we are certain that we are raising the proportion of carbon in the atmosphere (and the oceans). It seems very likely that this proportion will continue to rise given current policies. Now, I suppose reasonable minds can differ, but in my opinion larges changes to the composition of the atmosphere are bad and should be minimized to what extent we can, given how reliant we are on the atmosphere and the uncertainty of outcomes in changing it.

So in your opinion, large changes to the composition of the atmosphere is a de facto bad thing. 

So you didn't show your work. You pulled it out of your opinion hole. 

What if rising temperatures actually improve agriculture, and that we can easily mitigate them for humans with, ya know, air conditioning? 

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 09, 2022, 01:20:45 PM

You'll need China/India/Russia for starters to show theirs also for an accurate account.Is that even possible? Screw Bernie build the bad boys and check for faults first

Wrong and distracting. The worldwide effects of climate change occur regardless of where the CO2 is generated. As such, if we're talking about the actual PROBLEM (and if it is, in fact, a problem), that can be defined without addressing the solution. 

If climate change isn't actually a PROBLEM, then no country needs to spend money to try to solve it. If it *IS* a problem, then, well, we get to your point. 

I'm saying if you're looking at a cost benefit analysis, and you actually don't know / can't quantify what the benefit is, you can't even get to dealing with China/India/Russia. 

The assumption is that climate change is bad, and that we should stop it. I'm saying that's unproven. What's proven is that man is increasing temperature. Whether that's a problem, or neutral, or even potentially beneficial, is very much an unknown. 

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 01:28:27 PM

It is precisely on point.  There is no other benefit to be had.  Temperature rise is THE problem here, the genesis of every other issue, and one can calculate how much  your spending will ameliorate it.

And obviously the nuclear issue is far from easy to solve. 

Also wrong. Temperature rise is the EFFECT of increasing CO2 emissions. 

It relies on incredibly complex modeling, of the environmental effects, the economic effects, and the geopolitical effects of that warming to determine if it's a PROBLEM. 

So if you want cost/benefit, you can't just say that it'll reduce temperatures. You have to model those things to know how much it's actually WORTH IT to spend money to reduce temperatures. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 02:11:48 PM

Yes, I'm saying use the models, as the MIT climate group has done.  That calculates your benefit (most of it, presuming the models are correct).

And what it would show is that a HUGE expenditure by the US or the West would have at best a very very small benefit in terms of T rise.  You can put error bars around that, it's still very very small.

Instead we just throw money out there and pretend it's useful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 02:16:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 02:11:48 PM

Yes, I'm saying use the models, as the MIT climate group has done.  That calculates your benefit (most of it, presuming the models are correct).

And what it would show is that a HUGE expenditure by the US or the West would have at best a very very small benefit in terms of T rise.  You can put error bars around that, it's still very very small.

Instead we just throw money out there and pretend it's useful.

Maybe I'm unfamiliar with these models. Do they show the potential economic and geopolitical effects of warming? Do they have detailed models that show changes to the agricultural carrying capacity of the earth at various temperature levels? 

Or do the models just say "reduce atmospheric CO2 by X ppm and it will result in a temperature drop of Y deg C"?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 09, 2022, 02:23:22 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 12:14:27 PM

China has something like 228 nuclear reactors in development. The issue isn't whether is practicable, it's whether there is anyone who cares enough to make it happen.

No they don't. They have roughly 15 nuke plants in development right now.

They DO have 200+ COAL plants in development.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 03:02:51 PM

Quote

So in your opinion, large changes to the composition of the atmosphere is a de facto bad thing. 

So you didn't show your work. You pulled it out of your opinion hole. 

Yes, correct. As in all decisions, people have to put the weight of their opinions on the available options. Many people regard nuclear war as a bad thing. This is not an absolute fact. This is an opinion, that they pulled out of their opinion holes.


So I did show my work. The atmosphere (well, the entire biosphere or whatever sphere they call it these days) is key to life on earth. We don't have great capabilities to run large scale experiments on it to determine what will happen given the range of options. So by necessity, we have to do a lot of guessing. Given the uncertainty in outcomes in messing with the composition of the atmosphere, and given the very, very bad possible outcomes, we should make policy based on keeping it stable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 03:13:02 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 02:16:20 PM

Maybe I'm unfamiliar with these models. Do they show the potential economic and geopolitical effects of warming? Do they have detailed models that show changes to the agricultural carrying capacity of the earth at various temperature levels?

Or do the models just say "reduce atmospheric CO2 by X ppm and it will result in a temperature drop of Y deg C"?

I'm talking about simple cost:benefit where the benefit is less CO2 in the atmosphere.  This is a very simple way of assessing whether money spent will have at least that simple impact, and to what degree.  One can carry this into more complexity of course by attempting to assess how T increases may alter this and that.

And yes, the various climate models have as a main input CO2 levels and a main output global mean T.  They are extremely complex and varied in type, and I didn't want to get into whether the models are really predictive or not.  The MIT Climate group has assessed the benefit IF everyone hit their Paris targets, for example, and the impact is small.  I find that relevant, and important to consider.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 03:34:59 PM

Countries | Climate Action Tracker (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/)

Not many counties are "sufficient", as in zero.  

Canada is worse than the US.

So, we set goals, don't meet the goals, and the goals themselves are insufficient.

But they do cost money and time and effort and focus.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 03:40:51 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/XYPsVId.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 03:41:42 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/GDWb6FJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 03:50:26 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 03:02:51 PM

So I did show my work. The atmosphere (well, the entire biosphere or whatever sphere they call it these days) is key to life on earth. We don't have great capabilities to run large scale experiments on it to determine what will happen given the range of options. So by necessity, we have to do a lot of guessing. Given the uncertainty in outcomes in messing with the composition of the atmosphere, and given the very, very bad possible outcomes, we should make policy based on keeping it stable.

Got it. Precautionary principle. 

Except that there's a penalty for remaking our entire energy paradigm at high cost... The high cost. The opportunity cost of that money not being invested in anti-cancer drugs, or groundbreaking new technologies that will advance economic growth somewhere else, or whatever. (Granted, it'll probably actually be spent buying NFTs in the metaverse...)

You're proposing to engage in something that has very high cost today for something that has a potential negative effect down the road. 

Well, as a society, human beings have never really been good at pain today for benefit tomorrow... So understand that you've got a pretty big hill to climb. 

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 03:13:02 PM

I'm talking about simple cost:benefit where the benefit is less CO2 in the atmosphere.  This is a very simple way of assessing whether money spent will have at least that simple impact, and to what degree.  One can carry this into more complexity of course by attempting to assess how T increases may alter this and that.

And yes, the various climate models have as a main input CO2 levels and a main output global mean T.  They are extremely complex and varied in type, and I didn't want to get into whether the models are really predictive or not.  The MIT Climate group has assessed the benefit IF everyone hit their Paris targets, for example, and the impact is small.  I find that relevant, and important to consider.

You're a pragmatist, CD, and I get that. You're right. Even if we hit the Paris accord targets (which we won't) it won't do much anyway. 

I'm just saying that you're taking that reduced CO2 and reduced T is a benefit--I'm asking for the next step. Is reduced T good? Is increased T bad? Is the value of taking steps to reduce T now worth forgoing other economic growth that could help us mitigate future increased T without taking costly actions now? 

I've said before that the climate change alarmist position basically has to follow a chain:

• The earth is experiencing real, observed, warming.
• CO2 is a greenhouse gas. 
• Increased emissions of CO2 by humans is the cause of some portion of the observed warming. Continued emissions of CO2 and higher atmospheric CO2 levels is likely to increase global temperature from where it is today. 
• Warming (increased global T) is bad.
• The economic/social/geopolitical negative effects from warming have a value of Y. 
• We can alleviate the bad effects of warming if we just spend X now on transitioning our energy economy away from fossil fuels. 
• We can't mitigate the bad effects of warming down the road for any cost that is meaningfully lower than or in the same range as X.
• X is much, much lower than Y. 
• Thus, it is justified to spend X now to avoid Y later. 

I'd state that steps 1-3 are basically agreed upon by all rational people on both sides of the debate. 

4 is probably true, but I wouldn't say it's conclusively proven. 

5-9 are complete and total unknowns. 

The alarmists skip from 4 to 9. Warming is horrible, we're causing it, so we'd better pay whatever is necessary to stop it. 

The rational* skeptics mostly say that we don't really know how bad warming will be and that we haven't really justified that the cost to mitigate it today will really be worth the gain from avoiding some level of warming. 

The pragmatists (you) say that we won't actually do anything of note anyway, and that most of the discussions are one big circle jerk. 

 * By rational skeptics I'm removing the wack-jobs who don't believe warming is happening, or who deny a link between human-produced CO2 and that warming. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 03:59:25 PM

The impact of warming is very difficult to assess I think because it's probably good for some areas and rather bad for others.  It's a minor point, but the wine industry is most vulnerable of any, perhaps.  They should feel the impact first, and they can't move their vineyards to cooler areas broadly speaking.  They could plant more heat tolerant varietals, like zinfandel, but that sells at a MUCH lower price  than pinot noir.  I'm told by growers they are already seeing such an effect.

Now perhaps areas like Washington state and even Champagne may benefit.  That sort of calculation is very hard to manage, I think.  The same is true for growers of wheat and corn and other grains.  Warming could be good, but offset by more drought.  I think it's beyond anyone's capability to model.  Folks say the impact will be bad, so for the sake of argument, I stipulate that and turn to what are we going to DO about it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:36:53 PM

U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm calls on oil and gas companies to raise output (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/us-energy-secretary-granholm-calls-on-oil-and-gas-companies-to-raise-output.html)

I am all astonishment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 09, 2022, 04:40:08 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:36:53 PM

U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm calls on oil and gas companies to raise output (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/us-energy-secretary-granholm-calls-on-oil-and-gas-companies-to-raise-output.html)

I am all astonishment.

and the gas and oil companies say great let us explore federal lands and loosen the draconian restrictions placed on us

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 07:14:51 PM

Quote

Except that there's a penalty for remaking our entire energy paradigm at high cost... The high cost. The opportunity cost of that money not being invested in anti-cancer drugs, or groundbreaking new technologies that will advance economic growth somewhere else, or whatever. (Granted, it'll probably actually be spent buying NFTs in the metaverse...)

You're proposing to engage in something that has very high cost today for something that has a potential negative effect down the road. 

Well, yes, opportunity cost is a thing. When Three Mile Island occurred they invented all sorts of regulatory schemes on nuclear plants that made them cost prohibitive. Now it is very difficult and expensive to build new nuclear plants in the United States, and so it is very rare that anyone builds them. I am not certain of this but it certainly doesn't feel that the United States is at the forefront or anywhere near the forefront of research on nuclear power. Other countries didn't artificially increase the cost of nuclear power, and they seem just fine. So forty years of choosing to fall behind other countries certainly raises the cost of catching up. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 07:19:51 PM

Germany and Japan are closing down their power reactors, I don't imagine they are doing research much on new ones.  The US is still abreast of modern nuclear reactor design.  The SMRs are interesting and COULD provide an intermediate term approach that might work, but as yet, it's not happening.

This is political, not technical.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 07:26:21 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 07:19:51 PM

Germany and Japan are closing down their power reactors, I don't imagine they are doing research much on new ones.  The US is still abreast of modern nuclear reactor design.  The SMRs are interesting and COULD provide an intermediate term approach that might work, but as yet, it's not happening.

This is political, not technical.

It's definitely political, and then becomes technical. If one wanted to work on design of nuclear reactors, you would be silly to stay in the United States. We have to buy research from other countries if we even wanted to have modern technology, which we mostly don't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 07:33:29 PM

I do not think that is true at all.  I don't think any other country has more advanced nuclear technology than the US.

I wouldn't want a Chinese reactor near me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 09, 2022, 07:35:43 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 07:33:29 PM

I do not think that is true at all.  I don't think any other country has more advanced nuclear technology than the US.

I wouldn't want a Chinese reactor near me.

Homer is smart

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 09, 2022, 08:34:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 07:33:29 PM

I do not think that is true at all.  I don't think any other country has more advanced nuclear technology than the US.

I wouldn't want a Chinese reactor near me.

I'm not sure why. What is the point of working on technology that no one uses? China tends to have a pretty good education system and pretty smart people and the goal of having better nuclear reactors. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 10, 2022, 12:22:17 PM

My brother hasn't been there since '18 he use to go for business working for some company that made plastic container caps.Any way he asked his one host a commie ecsort really why all the new shiny buildings were empty and the guy told him they were filled with computers and no one to program or use them - in any amount 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2022, 09:46:12 AM

Got down to 19 last nite with an inch of snow,won't get above 25 today with maybe more snow tonite

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2022, 10:01:27 AM

negative 2 this morning

positive 45 this afternoon

hopefully won't see negative numbers again until December

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:02:28 AM

30°F here this AM, we actually had some flurries.  

The average daily high temperature in Atlanta in March is 62°F (17°C). The average daily low is 43°F (6°C).
Temperatures often climb through March, with warm weather more common at the end of the month. Variability in the weather, from day to day and from year to year, however, remains high.
Many days in the typical March will see a high temperature in the 70s (between one third and two thirds of days during the month) and the warmest days can get into the 80s. It is common too for temperatures to stay in the 50s, or even lower still on the coldest days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:03:28 AM

I'm willing to invest in reducing CO2 emissions, I just would like to see what I'm getting for the money.  It's the same when I buy some other product.

The first thing I'd focus on is reducing coal usage.  That has multiple benefits.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 12, 2022, 10:21:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:03:28 AM

I'm willing to invest in reducing CO2 emissions, I just would like to see what I'm getting for the money.  It's the same when I buy some other product.

The first thing I'd focus on is reducing coal usage.  That has multiple benefits.

why isnt the use of natural gas encouraged more

we have a shit load of it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2022, 10:25:53 AM

why are people allowed to cut down trees?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:27:50 AM

Natural gas gets used when it's cheap, and it's very good for surge electrical power.  You can start up an NG turbine in minutes.  And of course it is the primary electricity generator in the US and is why coal has dropped as far as it has.

NG does of course release CO2.  The best option to replace coal is nuclear.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 12, 2022, 10:34:35 AM

We have a navy that has used nuclear power for over 60 years without a serious incident (that I know of)

maybe we ought to look into what they do to ensure nuclear power plants are safe
to put minds at ease

Texas has 2 nuclear plants and never had any problem

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2022, 10:40:52 AM

the nuclear lobby is soft

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:41:55 AM

Texas did have a problem last year when the freeze happened.  It wasn't a serious problem, just one had to go off line.

Navy reactors are very different in design of course, each carrier has two, and the submarines have one of a specific design for them.  Those are the only ships (and boats) in the USN with nuclear power today.  Carriers need it to save room for aviation fuel (and to enable high speed operations when needed, as in launching).

The main problems with nuclear are expense, which could be managed if we had any sense, and waste, which could be managed if we had any sense.

The two new nuclear reactors at Vogtle are way over budget and way over time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:43:42 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/BAh22sq.png)

Reneweables includes hydroelectric.  For all the publicity about wind and solar, which are growing, NG is growing even faster.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 12, 2022, 10:45:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:41:55 AM

Texas did have a problem last year when the freeze happened.  It wasn't a serious problem, just one had to go off line.

Navy reactors are very different in design of course, each carrier has two, and the submarines have one of a specific design for them.  Those are the only ships (and boats) in the USN with nuclear power today.  Carriers need it to save room for aviation fuel (and to enable high speed operations when needed, as in launching).

The main problems with nuclear are expense, which could be managed if we had any sense, and waste, which could be managed if we had any sense.

The two new nuclear reactors at Vogtle are way over budget and way over time.

Still there was no failure in containment and the shut down was well within safety standards

Hell a lot of coal and gas fueled plants had to be shut down also

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2022, 11:11:49 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 12, 2022, 10:43:42 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/BAh22sq.png)

Reneweables includes hydroelectric.  For all the publicity about wind and solar, which are growing, NG is growing even faster.

perhaps we could get Badgerfan to design more dams

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2022, 09:29:17 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/6BPVqD7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2022, 09:29:33 AM

17 deg here over nite,today in the high 30s, feels like that's doing an about face with the wind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2022, 09:30:17 AM

27°F here at the moment and sunny, quite chilly for this time of year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2022, 09:31:53 AM

gonna be in the low 60s here

golf weather!

alas, I'm headed to Minneapolis for a convention

but, gonna be pretty warm there this week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2022, 09:36:08 AM

We're supposed to hit 54°F, this probably was the last breath of winter.  Early April around here is glorious.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2022, 09:49:47 AM

early April here is glorious

means the winter is finally over

golf courses open

usually too wet to play

we need rain

once in a while we get wet heavy snow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 13, 2022, 11:34:52 AM

Daylight Savings officially ends winter insofar as I am concerned. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2022, 09:20:33 AM

How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality - Issues in Science and Technology (https://issues.org/climate-change-scenarios-lost-touch-reality-pielke-ritchie/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2022, 09:55:17 AM

Quaise Energy (https://www.quaise.energy/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2022, 07:48:51 PM

Inside Twelve‘s Bay Area lab, a tank of carbon dioxide captured from a nearby refinery sits next to a dishwasher-size machine that converts the pollution into ingredients for products that are currently made from fossil fuels—from plastic to jet fuel. “In theory, it can become anything that you can make from petroleum,” says chief science officer Etosha Cave, who is working with cofounders Kendra Kuhl and Nicholas Flanders to commercialize technology that Cave and Kuhl developed at Stanford University. The startup’s carbon-transformation process uses a metal catalyst and renewable energy to break CO2 and water molecules into smaller atomic bits, and then re-forms them into new chemicals that can be used in manufacturing. Twelve has already partnered with the Air Force to make jet fuel from CO2, and it’s worked with Daimler and Procter & Gamble to demonstrate that it can recreate ingredients needed to make car parts and Tide, respectively. “We see ourselves doing CO2 conversion as a service, as well as enabling the CO2-made material by embedding within supply chains,” Cave says. The new chemicals are a one-for-one replacement, so Twelve’s customers can lower their carbon footprints without affecting product performance. The startup raised $57 million last summer as it works to build out its process to industrial scale. Cave and the team believe that it can ultimately compete with fossil fuels on cost, and if it can replace petrochemicals at a large scale, the company can meaningfully cut global energy emissions.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90721844/twelve-transforming-carbon-pollution-jet-fuel-plastics (https://www.fastcompany.com/90721844/twelve-transforming-carbon-pollution-jet-fuel-plastics)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2022, 09:06:58 PM

The ZEBRA (Zero wastE Blade ReseArch) consortium has produced the first prototype of its 100 per cent recyclable wind turbine blade.

Within the project, LM Wind Power, a GE Renewable Energy Business, has designed and built the world’s largest thermoplastic blade at its Ponferrada plant in Spain. This milestone is achieved after a year of material development and testing backed by sub-component level process trials by the consortium partners.

The 62-metre blade was made using Arkema’s Elium® resin, which is a thermoplastic resin known for its recyclable properties together with the new high-performance Glass Fabrics from Owens Corning, LM Wind Power said.

Launched in September 2020, the ZEBRA (Zero wastE Blade ReseArch) project is a unique partnership led by French research center IRT Jules Verne and brings together industrial companies including Arkema, CANOE, Engie, LM Wind Power, Owens Corning, and SUEZ.


https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/03/17/first-fully-recyclable-wind-turbine-blade-rolls-out/ (https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/03/17/first-fully-recyclable-wind-turbine-blade-rolls-out/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2022, 07:36:57 AM

The problem with CO2 as a starting material is that it is very low in the "energy well", relative to say methane.  It's pretty easy to convert methane into "stuff", not so with CO2, you have to add quite a bit of energy to CO2 to drive it to another material.  That Delta G component is fixed, and large.  In this case, your starting material is lower in energy than your product, so you start with Z and are trying to get X and Y.

(https://i.imgur.com/rQaTCv2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2022, 09:38:39 AM

A ‘Plan B’ for addressing climate change and the energy transition | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/03/17/a-plan-b-for-addressing-climate-change-and-the-energy-transition/)

 Apart from the relative importance of natural climate variability, emissions reductions will do little to improve the climate of the 21st century – if you believe the climate models, most of the impacts of emissions reductions will be felt in the 22nd century and beyond.

In spite of the numerous UN treaties and agreements to reduce emissions over the past two decades, the atmospheric CO2 concentration relentlessly continues to increase.  By 2050, global emissions will be dominated by whatever China and India have done, or have failed to do. The IEA Roadmap to Netzero finds that there is a possible but very narrow pathway to Netzero by 2050, provided that there is a huge leap in energy innovation and major efforts to build new infrastructure.  Others find reaching Netzero by 2050 to be a social and technological impossibility.

Terms such as ‘climate crisis’ and ‘code red for humanity’ are used by politicians and policy makers to emphasize the urgency of action to stop burning fossil fuels. Note that the IPCC itself does not use the words ‘crisis’, ‘catastrophe’, or even ‘dangerous’; rather it uses the term ‘reasons for concern.’ Apart from the scientific uncertainties, the weakest part of the UN’s argument about manmade global warming is that it is dangerous. The highest profile link to danger relies on linking warming to worsening extreme weather events, which is a tenuous link at best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2022, 09:39:23 AM

Does all this mean we should do nothing in the near term about climate change?  No. But given the problems with Plan A, we clearly need a Plan B that broadens the climate policy envelope. By considering climate change as a wicked mess, climate change can be reframed as a predicament for actively reimagining human life. Such a narrative can expand our imaginative capacity and animate political action while managing social losses.

We should work to minimize our impact on the planet, which isn’t simple for a planet with 8 billion inhabitants.  We should work to minimize air and water pollution.  From time immemorial, humans have adapted to climate change.  Whether or not we manage to drastically curtail our carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades, we need to reduce our vulnerability to extreme weather and climate events.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2022, 12:40:08 PM

expected high in the mid 70s here

sunny and breezy

FORE!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2022, 04:53:48 PM

Lead and IQ

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/lead-gasoline-blunted-iq-half-us-population-study-rcna19028

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 20, 2022, 05:05:21 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2022, 04:53:48 PM

Lead and IQ

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/lead-gasoline-blunted-iq-half-us-population-study-rcna19028

so what did they use for their control group

Ive reread this several times and really dont understand how they calculated the amount of mental loss

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2022, 05:16:13 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 20, 2022, 05:05:21 PM

so what did they use for their control group

Ive reread this several times and really dont understand how they calculated the amount of mental loss

I think one of the ways they can look at it is determining lead levels in topsoil. In areas with heavy lead exposure, i.e. vehicle exhaust has a lot of lead, that lead ends up falling into topsoil. Then they can look at aggregate IQ levels between areas of high and low lead levels, controlling for demographics (as much as possible), to try to determine correlation between lead levels and IQ. 

There's been a lot of study on this... The era of leaded gasoline correlates to a lot of bad effects. Crime, etc. One aspect of this is that lead levels tended to be highest in the areas of highest population density (obviously; there were more cars emitting lead there)... So it affected cities much more than rural areas. 

I put it in this topic because weather, climate and environment is the right place for discussion of pollution, and I think the effects of lead pollution during the era of leaded gas is not fully appreciated. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 20, 2022, 05:26:53 PM

seems to me you would have to comare a sample of folks with high lead levels to a control group with normal lead levels

and to do this everyone would have to have taken a qualified IQ test

I dont see how they could have done this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2022, 09:23:03 PM

what's normal???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2022, 08:20:48 AM

I think an IQ of 100 is taken as the mean with a normal distribution around that.

One issue, I think, is a smart person who doesn't read well won't do well on any written test.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2022, 08:29:12 AM

So, if we first focused on coal burning power plants, we could get a bigger bang for the buck as they pollute with normal pollutants, and coal is problematic to mine and the residual burned ash is also a problem.  The advantage of coal, aside from low cost, is it provides steady baseline power, something you need if other sources are intermittent.

The obvious replacement is more costly, but pretty obvious, though the shift to natural gas has been obvious over the years, making more of an impression in our mix than wind and solar.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2022, 11:11:15 AM

UN secretary general: World is 'sleepwalking to climate catastrophe' | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/599007-un-secretary-general-15-degree-climate-goal-in-intensive-care)

“The world returned from [the COP26 climate summit with a certain naïve optimism” about achieving the goal, Guterres told attendees at the Economist Sustainability Summit. “Keeping 1.5 alive requires a 45 percent reduction in global emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by mid-century. That problem was not solved in Glasgow.”LEARN MORE

“According to present national commitments, global emissions are set to increase by almost 14 percent in the 2020s,” he added. “Last year alone, global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 6 percent to their highest levels in history. Coal emissions have surged to record highs. We are sleepwalking to climate catastrophe.”


Yeah, I've been saying this for a while now.  And these are "commitments", pledges, not yet reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2022, 03:42:29 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/W8p3BqO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 21, 2022, 03:47:21 PM

Quote from: utee94 on March 21, 2022, 03:42:29 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/W8p3BqO.png)

Yikes. My BIL moved to San Antonio a couple months ago, and my MIL and wife's stepdad are en route from Phoenix to Las Cruces today, and Las Cruces to San Antonio tomorrow because they're also moving. 

Did any of this hit SA? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2022, 03:49:57 PM

San Antone is toward the southern end of that oval, and they've just dropped their chances of strong thunderstorms/supercells from 70% earlier today, down to around 30%.  Most of this should be north of them.

Which puts Austin well in the crosshairs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 09:09:26 AM

Man, accurate forecast was accurate.  Multiple tornadoes in the Austin area and all up and down Central Texas.  One of them even struck Dell's Round Rock campus, a glancing blow that only broke some windows and tore up some trees and light posts.  Coulda been a lot worse.

Minimal injuries as far as I know, at least in the Austin area.  We had some major hail in parts of town that damaged a lot of vehicles.  I spent yesterday morning clearing out the garage so I could get both cars inside.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 22, 2022, 09:35:22 AM

Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 09:09:26 AM

We had some major hail in parts of town that damaged a lot of vehicles. I spent yesterday morning clearing out the garage so I could get both cars inside.

Glad to hear it missed you,hoping those things never come back - anywhere.The last bit has been my conundrum for quite a few years .I've pretty much cleaned my 2 & 1/2 out .Everything I could donate,sell,recycle,give away or trash.But Cindy on the other hand has found a landing spot for her Family/Friends possessions between divorce/moving/deaths. It appears now that is a thing of the past which is good as much as I had to get the Sno-Bllower out this Winter. The garage attic is also filled with her seasonal decorations ~??? Christmas is always a 4 day event.Taking down & bringing back up unpacking/packing/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 09:41:17 AM

Yeah we have plenty of accumulated junk, but that's mostly a matter of laziness.  My biggest problem is the bikes.  I have racks mounted to the walls but the kids just aren't big enough to lift them up and down, and they use their bikes every single day, riding the ~1.5 miles to and from school.  

The other house we almost bought instead of this one, had a 3.5 car garage.  That sure woulda been nice...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2022, 09:41:22 AM

The front blew through Houston this morning around 6:30

Winds 50 tp 60 some hail but what the heck my dish system still works so no problem

As my dad used to say "It couldve been worse"

Yep at least I dont live in Oklahoma

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2022, 10:09:32 PM

silent, limitless, zero-carbon power source that can run on ocean water might seem like the stuff of a Jules Verne novel, but the sci-fi-sounding technology of the hydrogen fuel cell will soon be a reality in yachting.

For an industry that adopts new technology at a glacial pace, using this type of experimental power on a superyacht costing tens of millions of dollars is a bold and financially daring step. But four shipyards are outfitting new builds with fuel cells anyway. The first is expected to splash in 2024. If it succeeds, it may one day supplant the hybrid diesel-electric engines and solar-powered sailboats that have served as a first step toward nautical sustainability.


The fuel cell won’t power the yacht’s main propulsion but instead will run the house load—mainly electricity and air-conditioning—in blissful silence for 15 days, or move the boat at a slow, net-zero-emissions pace for 1,000 miles. Both are significant breakthroughs since they will allow the yacht to stay away from port for weeks or travel into environmentally sensitive waters restricted to electric vessels.

Italian builder Baglietto says it’s building a fuel cell prototype that will be on display at its shipyard by the end of the year. The system can be installed on yachts 171 feet or longer and delivered by the end of 2024 or early 2025. (Sanlorenzo plans to debut its own system around the same time; Feadship also has a fuel-cell system in the works but remains mum on launch dates.)

Baglietto’s system captures hydrogen directly from ocean water, and you can also fill its storage tanks with commercially sourced hydrogen. Like Lürssen’s, its system will power the house load while delivering a silent, slow-mo cruise of six to nine knots. “One of our big goals is to extend the range in zero-emissions mode,” says Alessandro Balzi, director of Baglietto’s energy department. “It allows a yacht into areas where diesel propulsion is prohibited.”

While these systems represent an important step-change in sustainable technology, nobody expects a true, zero-carbon yacht for at least a decade. “Clean energy is not yet there for the main engines,” says Tankoa CEO Vincenzo Poerio, one of yachting’s early adopters of hybrid diesel-electric engines. Hydrogen fuel cells will be a critical component but not the total solution—at least not for a while. “We’ll see multiple systems coming together to feed our need for clean energy—possibly even nuclear-fusion power,” says Poerio. “Owners are asking for yacht designs now that can be swapped out as those systems mature over the next 10 years.”


https://robbreport.com/motors/marine/4-major-yacht-builders-outfitting-new-builds-with-fuel-cells-1234668668/ (https://robbreport.com/motors/marine/4-major-yacht-builders-outfitting-new-builds-with-fuel-cells-1234668668/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 06:20:49 AM

Fuel cells have been around of course since the early space age.  They are in effect fancy batteries.  I don't know how you get hydrogen from sea water without the input of a lot of energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2022, 08:31:39 AM

perhaps nuclear-fusion could be that energy source

then just tell everyone you're running on seawater

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 08:35:14 AM

I read an article/opinion that IF ITER is really successful, we could have actual fusion power reactors by 2070, if everything works out great.

Of course, I hope that is pessimistic.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2022, 08:39:43 AM

Same weather system that caused so many tornadoes in Texas on Monday, caused a tornado in a populated area of New Orleans yesterday. 

Looks like they're on the way to Georgia and the Florida panhandle today, so y'all hang in there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 26, 2022, 11:20:48 AM

Snow showers 34 temps going down and staying in the 20s for the next 2 days at least.Of course opening day is coming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2022, 11:42:08 AM

my golf course here opens Monday the 28th

got enough rain to soften up the grass

low temps all next week, I won't be golfing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 27, 2022, 07:34:41 AM

FORE! What fore did it get down to the teens overnite and a blanket of snow this morning?Perhaps more to come

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2022, 11:17:31 AM

There was one notable exception to the Covid-muted crowds and order activity at last month's Singapore Airshow: the buzz around biofuels and sustainable aviation.

Finland-based refiner Neste was a major focal point. Ahead of the show, Singapore Airlines agreed to use Neste sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) made from cooking oil and animal fats. ExxonMobil (XOM) will blend the biofuel with traditional aviation fuel at facilities in Singapore for use late this year. Neste also announced plans were back on track to launch its SAF refining facility in Singapore by early 2023, after a Covid-forced detour.

In addition, Boeing's (BA) new, fuel-efficient 777X took to the skies for its first flight in Asia. The company said the aircraft uses 20% less fuel than older wide-body jets thanks to its lightweight composite wing materials and new wingtip design.

A flurry of related announcements arrived from Airbus (EADSY), General Electric (GE), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and others. Increasingly tough emissions rules, and fuel prices turned even more volatile by Russia's war on Ukraine, have boosted pressure on the aviation industry to reduce its carbon footprint.


Renewable Energy Group (REGI) is also part of the picture. However, Chevron (CVX) announced in February that it would acquire the Ames, Iowa-based outfit for $3.15 billion. Meanwhile, many younger stocks, including EV flight innovator Joby Aviation (JOBY), have struggled to make headway.

https://www.investors.com/news/biofuels-batteries-hydrogen-airline-industry-antes-up-against-climate-change/ (https://www.investors.com/news/biofuels-batteries-hydrogen-airline-industry-antes-up-against-climate-change/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2022, 09:47:37 AM

Says it's 10 deg with wind chill I believe it ground frozen solid from rain & some snow the last 5 days.Very sunny as clouds left that trapped in heat.I have one robin brave nough to hang around when I throw out seeds,nuts,dried fruits been chopping up dates/prunes into raisin size which the Robin likes.I can get about 8-10 ft away, a month ago with artic temps that bird literally ran up to me about 5 ft away and I'd toss raisins and it would practically catch them like a dog - pretty cool - man it's a long off season

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2022, 11:15:35 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/GSQUMs0.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2022, 11:16:26 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/XNsQmr4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2022, 06:24:14 PM

Almost tied the coldest March 24 on record.Between 17-26

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 06:48:44 AM

I expect the following (more of the same):

1.  More climate summit meetings;
2.  More declarations that we aren't doing enough;
3.  More promises to do more;
4.  Throw some money at the problem;
5.  Rinse and repeat.

Without some realistic plan, it's all just political noise to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 29, 2022, 08:12:32 AM

20 when I hit the rack 24 right now.Spring has sprung

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 10:46:48 AM

we are currently in a patch of nice spring weather with highs in the low 80s and lows upper 60s

nice time of year

but Texas being Texas we could still get storm fronts so its not spring yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 29, 2022, 12:51:13 PM

Gonna hit 90 here today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2022, 01:02:23 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 10:46:48 AM

we are currently in a patch of nice spring weather with highs in the low 80s and lows upper 60s

nice time of year

but Texas being Texas we could still get storm fronts so its not spring yet

I don't ever recall a freeze in Austin after about March 20th.  I suppose it's possible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 01:08:31 PM

Quote from: utee94 on March 29, 2022, 01:02:23 PM

I don't ever recall a freeze in Austin after about March 20th.  I suppose it's possible.

I dont remember a freeze in April but have had some pretty big storms in April

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2022, 01:17:08 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 01:08:31 PM

I dont remember a freeze in April but have had some pretty big storms in April

Well yeah, we always get massive thunderstorms in the Spring.  That part of our season has only just begun, it'll continue to increase in April, all the way through June.  Basically "tornado season" here in Texico.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 01:18:35 PM

Overall, I like the weather here pretty much.  Spring and fall are great, as usual, and summer is not that bad.  Winter is winter, it gets chilly, but manageable.

Cincinnati in July and August could be unmanageable at times, just really oppressive humidity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 01:24:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 01:18:35 PM

Overall, I like the weather here pretty much.  Spring and fall are great, as usual, and summer is not that bad.  Winter is winter, it gets chilly, but manageable.

Cincinnati in July and August could be unmanageable at times, just really oppressive humidity.

You ought to try Houston, San Antonio or Austin in July and August if you want to see what real heat and humidity is like

I still will take that over having to shovel my driveway or putting on snow tires 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 01:31:09 PM

I used to work with Shell Chemical in Houston on a joint project, I've been there in July and August, and it indeed was heinous.

They wanted to name their research center after Jimmy Doolittle, who was their R&D VP for some years, but couldn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 29, 2022, 02:00:56 PM

I've acclimated very well to the heat and humidity here in the summer. By September though.. you just want it gone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2022, 03:24:15 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 29, 2022, 02:00:56 PM

I've acclimated very well to the heat and humidity here in the summer. By September though.. you just want it gone.

Probably not unlike the folks that like a little bit of snow and a fire in the fireplace, but after 4 or 5 months if it, grow very weary.

Which of course, is not me.  I loathe any and all snow, unless it's on a mountain, and I have a couple of boards strapped to my feet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 30, 2022, 09:20:41 PM

Was in the 30s this morning got up to 71 😎 today be in the low 30s tomorrow night,twenties Friday :(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 31, 2022, 06:36:34 PM

Forecasters predict another active hurricane season – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/3255876-forecasters-predict-another-active-hurricane-season/)

Canadian woman becomes first person diagnosed as suffering from ‘climate change’ – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/580527-canadian-woman-becomes-first-person-diagnosed/)

I am all astonishment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on March 31, 2022, 06:48:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 31, 2022, 06:36:34 PM

Forecasters predict another active hurricane season – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/3255876-forecasters-predict-another-active-hurricane-season/)

Canadian woman becomes first person diagnosed as suffering from ‘climate change’ – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/580527-canadian-woman-becomes-first-person-diagnosed/)

I am all astonishment.

Reminds me of this


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2022, 08:37:39 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 30, 2022, 09:20:41 PM

Was in the 30s this morning got up to 71 😎 today be in the low 30s tomorrow night,twenties Friday :(

Got to 70 deg early this morning be down to the 20s later tomorrow :017:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2022, 09:15:49 AM

Mini ice age? Why the Sun will lose 7% of its power in about 30 years - Big Think (https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/the-solar-minimum-is-coming-in-about-30-years-what-will-it-do/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1mXEgnh3kbnFoDKbPna9vtuJYDLHvUR_eKYYV2ja_Q9lHbq7fB4Ft_F_4#Echobox=1648840748-1)

eh, probably not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2022, 09:52:12 AM

FORE!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2022, 08:58:37 AM

Earth’s orbit is slowing down. It turns approximately 2 milliseconds slower every 100 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2022, 12:03:02 PM

IPCC report: Climate scientists issue ultimatum on 1.5 degrees goal (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/ipcc-report-climate-scientists-issue-ultimatum-on-1point5-degrees-goal.html)


The fight to keep global heating under 1.5 degrees Celsius has reached “now or never” territory, according to a new report released Monday by the world’s leading climate scientists.
The highly anticipated report, delayed slightly due to last-minute disputes over the exact wording of the document, says curbing global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would require greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest.

At the same time, methane, a potent greenhouse gas, would also need to be reduced by roughly one-third.
The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said it is “almost inevitable” that humanity will briefly surpass the critical temperature threshold of 1.5 degrees in this scenario, but it could return below this level by the end of the century.
“It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C,” IPCC Working Group III co-chair Jim Skea said in a statement accompanying the report. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
The 1.5 degrees Celsius goal is the aspirational temperature threshold ascribed in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement (https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/13/paris-climate-agreement-all-you-need-to-know.html). It is recognized as a crucial global target because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely. These are thresholds at which small changes can lead to dramatic shifts in Earth’s entire life support system.
It has been feared that Russia’s unprovoked onslaught in Ukraine (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html) may eclipse the findings, despite the fact that the report may be the last comprehensive assessment of climate science while there is still time to secure a liveable future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2022, 12:03:51 PM

“First thing is, we’re on the wrong track,” Julia Steinberger, ecological economist and professor from Switzerland’s University of Lausanne, told CNBC via telephone. “In terms of a trajectory and also in terms of policies, we are just not on track for 1.5 or even 2 degrees.”
Steinberger, a lead author on IPCC’s latest report, described the warning that global emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest as “a bit of a bombshell” given how little time there is to prevent the worst of what the climate crisis has in store.
“We’re not talking about transition anymore. That ship has sailed — or, more like, failed to sail. Instead, the report is very much focused on transformation,” Steinberger said.
“I really think the report contains elements of a positive turn. For the first time in human history, we have the technologies available to us that allow us to live comfortable lives without consuming ginormous amounts of energy,” she added. “It’s almost the first time that we can plausibly think about pathways to get beyond the age of combustion — and wouldn’t that be exciting?”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2022, 12:08:31 PM

It’s time to break ground on our net-zero future | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3258289-its-time-to-break-ground-on-our-net-zero-future/)

Um, OK, more vague notional aspirations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2022, 12:33:26 PM

May 7, 1979
With thunderous chants of "No More Harrisburgs" and "No Nukes, No Nukes," a vast crowd of at least 65,000 protesters reminiscent of antiwar throngs of a decade ago marched on the Capitol yesterday, calling for an end to U.S. decpendece on nuclear energy.

As their banners billowed under bright skies, the protesters stepped in massive ranks from the ellipse, near the white house, down Pennsylvania Avenue to the west steps of the capitol.

There, they cheered speaker after speaker, including California Gov. Jerry Brown, consumer advocate Ralph Nader, actress Jane Fonda and longtime political activist Tom Hayden.

Triggered by the three mile island nuclear plant accident near Harrisburg, Pa., five weeks ago, the outpouring marked the largest national protest to date by the growing anitnuclear movement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2022, 12:43:17 PM

Idiots gonna idiot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 04, 2022, 01:05:34 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2022, 12:43:17 PM

Idiots gonna idiot.

what a strange thing to protest in todays America

its like being on the Titanic and protesting the band's selection of music

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2022, 07:09:38 AM

The climate cost of the war in Ukraine : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/04/05/1090955568/the-climate-cost-of-the-war-in-ukraine)

Kind of a weird article, if Europe replaces Russian NG with American NG, it's an even swap on emissions except for transportation costs.  And NG as a fuel is very useful, not something "green energy" can readily displace.  NG is widely used for residence heating obviously.  How could they expect to replace that on any urgent basis?  And as for electricity production, it's very useful there as well as a surge provider of power.

The "climate message" has moved into the phase I predicted, one where the hand wringing shifts to more extreme verbiage about how "we" aren't meeting our goals.  DUH.

If indeed we already are 1.1°C on the way to 1.5°C, there is zero way to expect to halt this at that target, none.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2022, 11:38:31 AM

French winemakers face devastation after worst weather in 30 years - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/business/france-wine-production-losses/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2022, 12:11:13 PM

buy in bulk NOW!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 05, 2022, 12:42:24 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2022, 12:11:13 PM

buy in bulk NOW!!!

who cares

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2022, 06:44:03 AM

We're going to hear more often now claims of a climate emergency and we're not doing enough in more strident terms.  Few will look at that and realize it's both true and an impossibility in practicable terms to "do enough", that will have to come in a few years, if ever.  This is why I've stated it would be nice if "we" faced hard facts.  I don't expect that as the situation is politicized.  You have True Believers and Deniers, and a large group in the middle who just want cheap gas and a clean environment.

To me it's a classic case of how science gets distorted when it intersects with the public interest.  I think that is the case for any complex topic.  It gets reduced to a level of simplicity that bears almost no resemblance to reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2022, 09:50:27 AM

36 and snow this week end,the Tribe,um Guards will be in for a home stand next week :(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 02:29:16 PM

One day, cities and hopefully everything else will be powered by renewable resources like wind and solar. To do that, though, we will need to continue to improve on our renewable tech, like creating solar panels that can absorb solar energy in many different levels of sunlight. A new development out of England may have done just that.

Scientists from the University of Surrey and Imperial College London made an ultrathin solar panel that’s just one micrometer thick but has 25 percent more energy absorption than other panels of its size. For reference, one millimeter is made up of 1000 micrometers.


https://www.optimistdaily.com/2022/04/ultrathin-honeycomb-solar-panels-achieve-record-efficiency/ (https://www.optimistdaily.com/2022/04/ultrathin-honeycomb-solar-panels-achieve-record-efficiency/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2022, 09:40:52 AM

The World’s Most Ambitious Climate Goal Is Sneaking Out of Reach - The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/04/un-ipcc-1-5-degree-report-global-warming/629486/)

Duh.  Time to start being realistic about all this.  I predict more hand wringing instead of realism.

The world can emit as much carbon dioxide as it produced during the 2010s—about 400 gigatons—before it uses up the rest of its 1.5-degree budget, the new report finds. But the world’s existing fossil-fuel infrastructure, as already built and financed, would generate another 660 to 850 gigatons of emissions. Meeting the goal will require taking coal, oil, and natural-gas capacity offline before it was designed to shut down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2022, 01:22:32 PM

What is green hydrogen vs. blue hydrogen and why it matters (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/06/what-is-green-hydrogen-vs-blue-hydrogen-and-why-it-matters.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Tech&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0I65uphumSoaGgN16ltXtPnZ5GO2ZUHZDn5gb3BtXWYp3_ea4kw3frGtA#Echobox=1649489323)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2022, 04:47:17 PM

Hmmmmm here we go again.  Last time the greater Austin area took multiple direct hits, hopefully it fizzles out this time around.

(https://i.imgur.com/7vixkaV.png)

'Tis the season.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 12, 2022, 05:12:47 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 12, 2022, 04:47:17 PM

Hmmmmm here we go again.  Last time the greater Austin area took multiple direct hits, hopefully it fizzles out this time around.

(https://i.imgur.com/7vixkaV.png)

'Tis the season.

Houston got hit as well

50 mph winds hail

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2022, 05:18:58 PM

Yeah we got that, too.  

But, you know-- tornadoes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 12, 2022, 05:42:15 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 12, 2022, 05:18:58 PM

Yeah we got that, too. 

But, you know-- tornadoes.

well yes we had a few of those as well but no damage

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2022, 05:44:22 PM

Houston's nowhere near the bullseye today, you're gonna be okay.

Thoughts and prayers for your blown-over lawn furniture.  #NeverForget!

(https://i.imgur.com/cKWmePW.png)

:)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 12, 2022, 06:04:25 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 12, 2022, 05:44:22 PM

Houston's nowhere near the bullseye today, you're gonna be okay.

Thoughts and prayers for your blown-over lawn furniture.  #NeverForget!

(https://i.imgur.com/cKWmePW.png)

:)

yep the radar really shows it going north of us

I wish our lawn furn looked that good

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2022, 11:14:12 PM

We had mud rain this morning, where the wind whipped up all the dust into the air like smog, and then it rained through it. Looked like a frost this morning, and everyone's car was caked with dirt unless it was parked in a garage, which luckily mine was. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2022, 07:01:54 AM

We're entering the pine pollen season here where cars get coated with yellow.

The trees are almost full "out" now, which is nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2022, 08:25:31 AM

Oak pollen season here, everything turns yellow-green for about two weeks.  Luckily we're just about done with it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2022, 08:38:34 AM

Not much grows well in this red clay, but pine trees do, along with kudzu of course, dogwoods and azaleas.  I caught some news in Ohio about new plantings of Bradford pear trees being banned, far too late of course.  Those ornamental trees were developed as hybrids that could not reproduce.

Oops.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2022, 09:10:07 AM

60 mph winds in South Dakota, the pollen is blowing to Minnesooota

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2022, 08:37:11 AM

STEO Data Browser - 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector (eia.gov) (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=22&f=M&s=0&start=201701&end=202312&map=&linechart=NGEPGEN_US~WNEPGEN_US~NUEPGEN_US~CLEPGEN_US&maptype=0&ctype=linechart)

(https://i.imgur.com/1j1KIz2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2022, 09:40:38 AM

You know solar has made it when fossils fund misinformation campaigns

As solar has grown, the fossil fuel industry has begun to attack it by funding misinformation campaigns online and among Facebook groups.

Reuters News recently covered this pushback, “U.S. solar expansion stalled by rural land-use protests”, and we here at pv magazine USA thought it would be appropriate to insert our two watts worth of opinion by debunking the misinformation.

The article notes that much of the disinformation and organizing against solar is happening on the atrocious platform Facebook, in its ‘groups’.


https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/04/12/you-know-solar-has-made-it-when-fossils-fund-misinformation-campaigns/ (https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/04/12/you-know-solar-has-made-it-when-fossils-fund-misinformation-campaigns/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2022, 12:44:06 PM

Lincoln got about one-third of an inch of rain from the severe storms that rolled through the area Tuesday night.

While that qualifies as a decent rain in what has otherwise been a dry winter and spring, it's a literal drop in the bucket in overcoming current drought conditions.

Through the first two weeks of April, Lincoln has gotten less than 0.4 inches of rain. That's less than half of what it should have received by now.

That continues a dry weather pattern than stretches back to last fall. While precipitation in Lincoln was slightly above normal in March, it was way below average in the four previous months.

Since the start of November, Lincoln has seen about 3.4 inches of precipitation, including a season record for lowest snowfall. While late fall and winter are the city's driest months, normal precipitation during that time period is nearly 7 inches.

On Wednesday, city officials urged residents to begin voluntary water conservation efforts now as a potentially dry summer looms. The announcement was part of a wider effort by a consortium that includes the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District and other NRDs and water districts in eastern Nebraska.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2022, 10:22:01 AM

Suppose to be a marvelous mix of rain/sleet/snow the next two days.makes sense as the Home Opener was last Friday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2022, 11:06:47 AM

I do not miss the weather in the North.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2022, 11:21:02 AM

No pollen right now as the sleet/snow is knocking it down,snow sticking @ 36 deg.At least the lakes in these parts don't disappear in the summer heat - so we have that going for us

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2022, 11:23:27 AM

The lakes here were way down a few years back due to drought.  I think they all are at pool now, they look it from the road.

Atlanta gets more rain than Seattle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2022, 11:28:21 AM

Wha.....,I dunno perhaps recently,they've had some dry/hot summers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2022, 11:34:05 AM

On November 22, 2007 the water level was at 1,052.34 feet, setting a new record low. The previous low was 1,052.7 ft, set in December 1981. The water level as of November 28, 2007 had dropped below the newly set record to 1,051.98 feet and still decreasing at 0.05 ft a day. One month later, the water level stabilized around a final low of 1,050.79 ft, recorded December 26, 2007 at Buford Dam, with the level rising or falling daily by about 0.03 ft, although a foot lower than November levels. The day after Christmas, the water level began rising from week to week.

Lake Lanier recorded its second-highest water level ever over the weekend, as rains have brought the lake within less than a foot of its record level recorded in 1964.

On Friday Lake Lanier's water level reached (http://lanier.uslakes.info/Level.asp) 1,076.34 feet above mean sea level, a measurement of lake fullness. That's more than five feet above a "full pool" for Lake Lanier of 1,071.00. (From Feb., 2020)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 07:39:43 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2022, 10:22:01 AM

Suppose to be a marvelous mix of rain/sleet/snow the next two days.makes sense as the Home Opener was last Friday

Got about 1&1/2 " yesterday,snowing now with slush/ice in the drive - we're doing our part to prevent global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 08:29:03 AM

Chilly here, blue skies, 45°F right now, supposed to be in the 80s come he weekend.  Time for some AC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 08:31:20 AM

We need rain badly here. There are fire warnings today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 10:58:36 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 08:31:20 AM

We need rain badly here. There are fire warnings today.

We could use the fire - to stay warm.The mercury is startring to inch up to 36 deg as it was 34 when 1st posting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 11:39:48 AM

It's been 6 weeks since we've had anything substantial here. I'd hate to start watering, but I think I have to.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 11:41:42 AM

We've had pretty good rain this Spring, here, enough for plants, not so much as to wash out activities much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 11:48:00 AM

What is this Spring you speak of?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 11:52:40 AM

Yeah, it's 52°F here and windy right now, too cold to go out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2022, 12:10:52 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 11:48:00 AM

What is this Spring you speak of?

right here in Houston

68 right now with a high of 78 expected

Yeeeeeeeeee Ha

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 12:18:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 11:52:40 AM

Yeah, it's 52°F here and windy right now, too cold to go out.

Hell Cindy drags the lawn chair out for some rays when it gets that toasty

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 12:23:49 PM

88 today. 90 yesterday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 12:56:05 PM

Screw that and the flurries are on/off again. ☃️

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 12:58:32 PM

In 1980, early spring, I was visiting potential grad schools, one was Princeton, the other UNC.  At Princeton there was skiffs of snow on the ground, students were huddled against the grey windy weather, and it was gloomy.  At UNC, coeds were out in shorts basking in the sun, it was a bright sunny day in the 60s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2022, 01:00:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 12:58:32 PM

In 1980, early spring, I was visiting potential grad schools, one was Princeton, the other UNC.  At Princeton there was skiffs of snow on the ground, students were huddled against the grey windy weather, and it was gloomy.  At UNC, coeds were out in shorts basking in the sun, it was a bright sunny day in the 60s.

it would have been an easy decision for me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 01:05:26 PM

AccuWeather's 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast | AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/1164507)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2022, 01:07:38 PM

Being from Galveston I have no snow experience.  My first business trip out of college was to Scottsbluff Nebraska and it was snowing.  I was driving a rental car and doing ok until the wind starting blowing snow across the highway.  I couldnt tell where the road was.  I had to sit there until a local came by who obviously knew the roads.

I was able to follow him into town.  All during this I kept asking why would anyone live here, this is ridiculous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 01:37:26 PM

Well I've been in white out conditions and i'd rather experience that than a Hurricane ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 01:39:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 12:58:32 PM

In 1980, early spring, I was visiting potential grad schools, one was Princeton, the other UNC.  At Princeton there was skiffs of snow on the ground, students were huddled against the grey windy weather, and it was gloomy.  At UNC, coeds were out in shorts basking in the sun, it was a bright sunny day in the 60s.

My brother and an old administrator I worked with both moved backed to PA/Ohio as the summers were miserable they said

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2022, 02:17:34 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 01:37:26 PM

Well I've been in white out conditions and i'd rather experience that than a Hurricane ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

well played


everyone has their priorities 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 02:20:21 PM

Tornadoes are probably my worst fear, lightning comes in second I suppose.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2022, 02:31:15 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 02:20:21 PM

Tornadoes are probably my worst fear, lightning comes in second I suppose. 

hurricanes bring their own tornadoes which often does more damage to a town then the hurricane

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 02:33:11 PM

A hurricane announces itself ahead of time, one can leave, or not live in the area.  A tornado can sprout from almost nothing.

The US has 90% of the tornadoes in the entire planet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 02:38:23 PM

High winds certainly BLOW - pun intended

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2022, 02:12:26 PM

Some (Kinda) Good Climate News: 2 Degrees Is Doable | WIRED (https://www.wired.com/story/some-kinda-good-climate-news-2-degrees-is-doable/?fbclid=IwAR1zLBjPXC87nl9QAolDa5BvQ58DXIFEIUfNSOzZ5bTNbCLNw5xrntSBmCU)

Indeed, though I'm not sure this isn't meant to offset the hopelessness other articles have conveyed, and it does depend on every country hitting its commitments (which is basically not going to happen, at all).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2022, 07:07:46 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 19, 2022, 01:07:38 PM

Being from Galveston I have no snow experience.  My first business trip out of college was to Scottsbluff Nebraska and it was snowing.  I was driving a rental car and doing ok until the wind starting blowing snow across the highway.  I couldnt tell where the road was.  I had to sit there until a local came by who obviously knew the roads.

I was able to follow him into town.  All during this I kept asking why would anyone live here, this is ridiculous.

I'll be going out that way from Iowa to Colorado next week
hopefully no snow, but there will be wind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2022, 09:39:57 PM

As long as your swilling Bud Fat that's a given

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 20, 2022, 09:52:17 PM

Wind sucks,not as much as cancer but pretty bad.

Love seeing the giant gates at the on ramps of i-80, 76, 25, etc.  Specifically for the drifting snow.   A one to three inch snowfall can become worse than any 20 jnch storm I've experienced with the simple ingredient of wind.  Wind on the plains is relentless. 

I respect the hell out of severe weather and tornado warnings.   You can't pin point them very well and given warnings can be sudden.  Definitely better than it used to be but i dutifully head to basment wo hesitation.  I've seen two in NE Heard another at night in WI.  Terrifying. 

Ice storms on the other hand.  Screw that.. mid south, mid Atlantic is SOL in those situations. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2022, 09:58:14 PM

mother nature can be tough on humans

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 08:57:27 AM

We had a couple ice storms in Cincy, it shut that city down also, though the wide use of salt is effective eventually.

I remember getting my car sideways in the driveway, a car with AWD.  I got out and nearly fell down.  Ice storms are awful, down here you just have to wait for the T to rise and sun to come out, and hope he pines haven't all snapped.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 21, 2022, 10:12:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 08:57:27 AM

We had a couple ice storms in Cincy, it shut that city down also, though the wide use of salt is effective eventually.

I remember getting my car sideways in the driveway, a car with AWD.  I got out and nearly fell down.  Ice storms are awful, down here you just have to wait for the T to rise and sun to come out, and hope he pines haven't all snapped.

when we have ice storms in Houston (which has happened maybe twice in the last 40 years) you just dont drive

period

folks are really crazy here and dont know how to drive in those conditions 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 10:14:07 AM

In a bad ice storm, no one can drive.  AWD, 4WD, anything short of studs and you can't drive, you can't even walk.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2022, 10:26:18 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 20, 2022, 09:58:14 PM

mother nature can be tough on humans

Especially tough when humans try to control her.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 10:30:17 AM

So, if it is true that if every country meets their commitments, we'll stay around 2°C of warming, what are the odds every significant country meets those commitments?

Assume for the moment the above is true.  How are "we" doing?



(https://i.imgur.com/jfD6jl4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 10:31:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/bpEYDJo.png)

"We'd" have to level off NOW and start declining around 2035 or so, rather steeply.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2022, 10:38:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 08:57:27 AM

We had a couple ice storms in Cincy, it shut that city down also, though the wide use of salt is effective eventually.

I remember getting my car sideways in the driveway, a car with AWD.  I got out and nearly fell down.  Ice storms are awful, down here you just have to wait for the T to rise and sun to come out, and hope he pines haven't all snapped.

I remember a few years back horrible pile ups in Tennessee I think it was in the morning with fog settling over the mountains and temps just right.Multiple fatalities as I recall.Do they send out warnings over the air for ICE conditions like they do up here for snow storms and high winds?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 10:42:11 AM

I don't know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 21, 2022, 11:29:35 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 21, 2022, 10:38:06 AM

.Do they send out warnings over the air for ICE conditions like they do up here for snow storms and high winds?

its 24 hour news if it happens in Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2022, 08:28:47 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 20, 2022, 09:58:14 PM

mother nature can be tough on humans

Maybe the Earth's trying to shake off the fleas.Anyway had about 2" of snow and ice on Mon/Tue - suppose to be in the 80s Sat/Sun :017:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2022, 09:05:41 AM

The fleas are "winning".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2022, 09:30:23 AM

gonna be in the 80s here today with hopefully a good amount of rain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2022, 03:20:12 PM

The Paris Agreement is failing; we need a new approach | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3460944-the-paris-agreement-is-failing-we-need-a-new-approach/)

New analysis (https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/world-far-short-climate-goals-during-decade-action-report-2022-03-16/) of countries’ pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions finds they fall well short of Paris Agreement climate goals. And that’s just in terms of what countries say they intend to do in the future, not even what they’re working in some concrete way to implement. A hundred countries say they are aiming for net-zero or carbon neutrality by 2050, yet just 14 have enacted such targets into law. Climate progress may slow further with energy markets roiled (https://www.resilience.org/stories/2022-03-16/russia-ukraine-war-and-the-changing-energy-landscape/) by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making it harder for example to close coal-fired power plants.

These are just the latest of many data points (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28072021/pairs-agreement-success-failure/#:~:text=One of the key shortcomings,emissions regardless of their contributions.) suggesting that the Paris Agreement, which itself allowed for widespread ecological destruction (https://phys.org/news/2022-02-paris-agreement-limits-catastrophic-coral.html), is failing. Meanwhile in real time, global warming is already killing and sickening people (https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1082564304/billions-of-people-are-in-danger-from-climate-change-u-n-report-warns) and damaging fetal and infant health worldwide. (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/15/global-heating-linked-early-birth-damage-babies-health)Maybe it’s time for a rethink, and a deeper approach.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2022, 03:35:48 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 19, 2022, 07:39:43 AM

Got about 1&1/2 " yesterday,snowing now with slush/ice in the drive - we're doing our part to prevent global warming

85 deg right now it was 29/30 overnite tues. so 56 deg swing in 4 days :sign0085:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 23, 2022, 08:18:40 PM

Psssh.   That's a 'Tuesday' in the plains states in the spring.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 25, 2022, 12:20:46 PM

So what is natural hydrogen
While there remains some debate natural hydrogen, which has until now rarely been a focal point, there is consensus around the two main ways underground accumulations of the molecule develop.

The first, called ‘serpentinisation,’ is an underground reaction between iron and water. As McIntyre, who spent 13 years at Shell as an exploration geologist explains, the reaction occurs when water comes into contact with iron rich rocks in the subsurface, deep enough to be unaffected atmospheric oxygen. “Then those iron-rich rocks, they effectively want to rust, they want to turn into iron oxides… so they will strip the oxygen atom off the H2O and that releases the hydrogen,” McIntyre tells pv magazine Australia.

“This is a well understood process and people have known about it for many, many years. It’s just that nobody’s really considered if this could be an economically viable process.”

The second mechanism is radiolysis of water, in which radioactive rocks split the H20 molecules into its component atoms. The hydrogen then migrates away from the radioactive rocks to accumulate or possibly get stuck in a fracture flux system underground.


https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/04/20/natural-hydrogen-how-the-potential-wellspring-works-and-why-companies-are-pouncing/ (https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/04/20/natural-hydrogen-how-the-potential-wellspring-works-and-why-companies-are-pouncing/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2022, 01:16:36 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 25, 2022, 12:20:46 PM

So what is natural hydrogen
While there remains some debate natural hydrogen, which has until now rarely been a focal point, there is consensus around the two main ways underground accumulations of the molecule develop.

The first, called ‘serpentinisation,’ is an underground reaction between iron and water. As McIntyre, who spent 13 years at Shell as an exploration geologist explains, the reaction occurs when water comes into contact with iron rich rocks in the subsurface, deep enough to be unaffected atmospheric oxygen. “Then those iron-rich rocks, they effectively want to rust, they want to turn into iron oxides… so they will strip the oxygen atom off the H2O and that releases the hydrogen,” McIntyre tells pv magazine Australia.

“This is a well understood process and people have known about it for many, many years. It’s just that nobody’s really considered if this could be an economically viable process.”

The second mechanism is radiolysis of water, in which radioactive rocks split the H20 molecules into its component atoms. The hydrogen then migrates away from the radioactive rocks to accumulate or possibly get stuck in a fracture flux system underground.


https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/04/20/natural-hydrogen-how-the-potential-wellspring-works-and-why-companies-are-pouncing/ (https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/04/20/natural-hydrogen-how-the-potential-wellspring-works-and-why-companies-are-pouncing/)

You have clearly been around CD too damn much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2022, 06:07:32 AM

Zero, then negative: Why getting to net-zero isn’t enough | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3462835-zero-then-negative-why-getting-to-net-zero-isnt-enough/)

Yet another fairy tale with no substantive arguments.  But it does highlight the clear fact "we" are going to continue pumping CO2 into the atmosphere for years to come, in large quantities, and the "commitments" are just political statements.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2022, 07:20:40 AM

Let's remove all of the levees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2022, 07:22:53 AM

Biden reverses Trump move to open up more oil drilling in Arctic (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/biden-reverses-trump-move-to-open-up-more-oil-drilling-in-arctic.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 26, 2022, 07:30:07 AM

A week ago Mon/Tue we had 2 days of snow/ice then sat/sun/ it was 83/86 yesterday 40s-50 rain tonite supposedly snow/ice - da Fuq

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 26, 2022, 07:35:14 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2022, 07:20:40 AM

Let's remove all of the levees.

https://youtu.be/JM3fodiK9rY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2022, 09:43:46 AM

Green jet fuel is here -- so why are airlines not using it? | CNN Travel (http://www.cnn.com/travel/article/saf-jet-fuel-green/index.html)

I'm not sure scaling up is going to make this stuff affordable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2022, 06:23:49 PM

Damn cold & damp 35 now 27 along the lake with the WC .Below freezing tonite,good thing I held out on planting the annuals

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 02, 2022, 07:15:04 PM

(https://img.ifunny.co/images/051b4fe2366ba85079412f40ee88bf6b1c1c576061f619d84e3ec02987330918_1.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2022, 04:47:05 PM

An Associated Press analysis tallied more than 2,200 high-hazard dams in poor or unsatisfactory condition across the U.S. — up substantially from a similar AP review conducted three years ago. The actual number is likely even higher, although it’s unclear because some states don’t track such data and many federal agencies refuse to release details about their dams’ conditions.

https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-environment-san-diego-dams-d0836a1fdfc46a5f1ea6c6a4a8b8df96 (https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-environment-san-diego-dams-d0836a1fdfc46a5f1ea6c6a4a8b8df96)

The nation’s dams are on average over a half-century old and often present more of a hazard than envisioned when designed because homes, businesses or highways have cropped up below them. Meanwhile, a warming atmosphere can bring stronger storms with heavier rainfall that could overwhelm aging dams.

“All of a sudden, you’ve got older dams with a lower design criteria that now can potentially cause loss of life if they fail,” said Del Shannon, an engineer who is president of the U.S. Society on Dams.

“The number of deficient, high-hazard dams is increasing,” he said, adding that without investment in upgrades, that number will continue to rise.

Decades of deferred maintenance has worsened the problem. But a changing climate and extreme floods — such as the one that caused the failure of two Michigan dams and the evacuation of 10,000 people in 2020 — have brought a renewed focus to an often overlooked aspect of America’s critical infrastructure.

The $1 trillion infrastructure bill signed last year by President Joe Biden will pump about $3 billion into dam-related projects, including hundreds of millions for state dam safety programs and repairs.


The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists about 92,000 dams in its nationwide database, most of which are privately owned and regulated by states. Dams are classified according to the risk posed by failure, ranging from low to significant to high. A high hazard means lives could be lost if the dam fails.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2022, 09:03:31 AM

Wouldn't it behoove us to warm up the climate, since the continents are all going to eventually meet together in order to form another super continent centered around the North Pole? 


(https://www.science.org/do/10.1126/article.27745/abs/sn-amasia.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2022, 09:59:45 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 05, 2022, 04:47:05 PM

An Associated Press analysis tallied more than 2,200 high-hazard dams in poor or unsatisfactory condition across the U.S. — up substantially from a similar AP review conducted three years ago. The actual number is likely even higher, although it’s unclear because some states don’t track such data and many federal agencies refuse to release details about their dams’ conditions.

https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-environment-san-diego-dams-d0836a1fdfc46a5f1ea6c6a4a8b8df96 (https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-environment-san-diego-dams-d0836a1fdfc46a5f1ea6c6a4a8b8df96)

The nation’s dams are on average over a half-century old and often present more of a hazard than envisioned when designed because homes, businesses or highways have cropped up below them. Meanwhile, a warming atmosphere can bring stronger storms with heavier rainfall that could overwhelm aging dams.

“All of a sudden, you’ve got older dams with a lower design criteria that now can potentially cause loss of life if they fail,” said Del Shannon, an engineer who is president of the U.S. Society on Dams.

“The number of deficient, high-hazard dams is increasing,” he said, adding that without investment in upgrades, that number will continue to rise.

Decades of deferred maintenance has worsened the problem. But a changing climate and extreme floods — such as the one that caused the failure of two Michigan dams and the evacuation of 10,000 people in 2020 — have brought a renewed focus to an often overlooked aspect of America’s critical infrastructure.

The $1 trillion infrastructure bill signed last year by President Joe Biden will pump about $3 billion into dam-related projects, including hundreds of millions for state dam safety programs and repairs.


The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists about 92,000 dams in its nationwide database, most of which are privately owned and regulated by states. Dams are classified according to the risk posed by failure, ranging from low to significant to high. A high hazard means lives could be lost if the dam fails.

When I was in school I did some part-time hydraulics work for the Wisconsin DNR as a part of my senior thesis. I used a program called DAMBRK to simulate dam failures and what they would do downstream. Of particular interest to me was multiple dams along the same river. One goes, they all go. And everything in between.

Very spooky shit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 07, 2022, 10:08:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2022, 09:43:46 AM

Green jet fuel is here -- so why are airlines not using it? | CNN Travel (http://www.cnn.com/travel/article/saf-jet-fuel-green/index.html)

I'm not sure scaling up is going to make this stuff affordable.

Maybe they can try it out on Air Force One with Brandon aboard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 07, 2022, 10:31:27 AM

Its gonna be in the mid 90s today in H town

at least the hot stuff hasnt gotten here yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2022, 02:54:19 PM

'Tis the season now.

(https://i.imgur.com/Sht3q4d.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2022, 04:57:26 PM

relax we got a few months yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2022, 06:31:26 AM

Before we get into the teeth of it, yeah. But they started updating yesterday so I pay attention.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 16, 2022, 08:51:25 AM

Already off to one of the hotter years across the world, it’s one thing for temperatures this relentless (above 110F/120F) to swelter barren, largely unpopulated deserts like the Sahara or Death Valley in the Mojave, but the Jacobabad state of Pakistan has a population of around one million.

There’s only so much heat the human body can get used to before temperatures sustained this high carry an insidious, widespread health impact. For starters, the body looses its ability to naturally cool itself which disrupts the sleep cycle, reducing nightly sleep an hour or two a night. Much like other insidious conditions such as diabetes or malnutrition, long term unmet sleeping needs chips away at the overall life span.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1525476967847436289

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2022, 09:16:11 AM

We are in a climate emergency.

sound the alarm!
so, what do we do when we hear the alarm?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2022, 09:21:19 AM

some states are transitioning to renewable energy faster than others. Using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states producing the most electricity from renewable sources. States are ranked based on the share of electric power production from renewable sources, which are: biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind.

Depending on the state, the share of electricity production coming from renewable sources ranges from 2.5% to nearly 100%. Encouragingly, the vast majority of states have increased their renewable electricity production in recent years. Over the past decade, renewable sources as a share of total energy production has increased by over 5 percentage points in most states.


https://247wallst.com/special-report/2022/05/15/states-producing-the-most-electricity-from-renewable-sources/10/ (https://247wallst.com/special-report/2022/05/15/states-producing-the-most-electricity-from-renewable-sources/10/)

Iowa at #7

> Electricity from renewables, 2020: 59.4% of total (35.4 million MWh)
> 10-yr. change in share of renewable energy: +41.5 ppt. (2nd highest)
> Largest renewable energy source: Wind (34.2 million MWh)
> Largest non-renewable energy source: Coal (14.1 million MWh)


2. South Dakota
> Electricity from renewables, 2020: 80.5% of total (11.4 million MWh)
> 10-yr. change in share of renewable energy: +14.7 ppt. (13th highest)
> Largest renewable energy source: Hydroelectric Conventional (5.8 million MWh)
> Largest non-renewable energy source: Coal (1.6 million MWh)

1. Vermont
> Electricity from renewables, 2020: 99.9% of total (2.2 million MWh)
> 10-yr. change in share of renewable energy: +72.3 ppt. (the highest)
> Largest renewable energy source: Hydroelectric Conventional (1.1 million MWh)
> Largest non-renewable energy source: Natural Gas (2021.0 MWh)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2022, 10:35:49 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2022, 09:16:11 AM

We are in a climate emergency.
sound the alarm!
so, what do we do when we hear the alarm?

(https://media3.giphy.com/media/l0MYMizgnsTpoMuoo/source.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2022, 02:05:33 PM

Interesting report on the effect of cleaner air from the US and Europe.

Study finds cleaner air leads to more Atlantic hurricanes - The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/study-finds-cleaner-air-leads-to-more-atlantic-hurricanes/2022/05/11/62791f50-d154-11ec-886b-df76183d233f_story.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2022, 07:19:41 PM

so, more smog for LA and San Fran

make em burn more ethanol

Iowa farmers love prevention of Atlantic hurricanes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2022, 07:51:58 PM

just goes to show ya no matter how bad something is somebody will find the good in it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 18, 2022, 07:55:29 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2022, 09:16:11 AM

We are in a climate emergency.

sound the alarm!
so, what do we do when we hear the alarm?

What doesn’t help, not so much whatever the cause is for so much heat, but more so what fatally results in sustained temps over 120F is the sheer number of people living in places where either mankind wasn’t mean to live or where far too many people are living in the first place. Meaning anytime anything presents a disruption to the thin margins of life in places where so many people are already on the edge of, the results are exponentially compounded.

Over TWO HUNDRED MILLION people live in Pakistan. Of course the droughts, severe heat, poverty, malnutrition, and contagious outbreaks were always going to compound as populations continue to vastly overgrow themselves around parts of the globe such as India, China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

If it’s a climate emergency it’s just as much a population emergency too.

https://twitter.com/bloggancer/status/1526570601422413826

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 18, 2022, 10:28:43 AM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 18, 2022, 07:55:29 AM

What doesn’t help, not so much whatever the cause is for so much heat, but more so what fatally results in sustained temps over 120F is the sheer number of people living in places where either mankind wasn’t mean to live or where far too many people are living in the first place.

Pretty much sums it up.The science community was sounding the alarm at least since 2005 that it wasn't a question of if but when Phoenix,Vegas and such places would run out of water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 06:30:02 AM

Humans think they can overpower Nature.  My money is on the latter, except for building more dams and dikes, that always works.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2022, 07:42:26 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/BSnZlT5.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 08:23:22 AM

Hydrogen energy may be a climate change solution. How clean will it really be? : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/05/27/1096584260/clean-energy-hydrogen-energy-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR3yS2cjnth-4tlBeU95QRw18lAbPZ_jYcm2_mvbQs1gJukKZ_-r5-CqccQ)

I struggle with this outside maybe some heavy duty applications on the edges.  Creating hydrogen takes enormous amounts of energy and you won't get all that back, ever.  It's an energy storage material, not energy production.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 09:56:20 AM

Bottling the sun: The world has been trying to master this limitless clean energy source since the 1930s. We’re now closer than ever (cnn.com) (https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/05/world/iter-nuclear-fusion-climate-intl-cnnphotos/)

Pretty much a crap puff piece on fusion, but it's CNN, so I guess so.  Of course we're closer than ever before, duh, but closer means what?  They don't say.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2022, 01:10:39 PM

Broke a pattern this year, but it looks like something could be brewing down in Mexico.

(https://i.imgur.com/Pdou8SM.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/k8yAbnJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 01, 2022, 01:13:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 09:56:20 AM

Bottling the sun: The world has been trying to master this limitless clean energy source since the 1930s. We’re now closer than ever (cnn.com) (https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/05/world/iter-nuclear-fusion-climate-intl-cnnphotos/)

Pretty much a crap puff piece on fusion, but it's CNN, so I guess so.  Of course we're closer than ever before, duh, but closer means what?  They don't say.

Says the hail headed for the solar panels

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2022, 09:22:12 PM

China has started the construction of a nuclear energy-powered steam supply unit in the Lianyungang City in eastern Jiangsu Province, state-run news media agency CGTN reported. The unit will be used to convert desalinated water into steam for industrial applications in the area.

Last year, China officially submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) its intention to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. This also requires the country to move away from fossil fuels in the short term. In the past, China has mainly relied on coal to fuel its industrial growth, and the construction of a nuclear-powered steam supply unit is a strong indicator of China's move towards carbon-free energy sources.

Nuclear-powered steam supply
China uses coal-fired power stations or coal-fired boilers to meet the steam requirements of its industrial units. Replacing just one such unit for industries in Lianyungang City is expected to save close to 400,000 tons (362,800 tonnes) of coal from being burnt and prevent over one million tons (0.97 million tonnes) of carbon dioxide from being released.


https://interestingengineering.com/china-moves-toward-nuclear-energy (https://interestingengineering.com/china-moves-toward-nuclear-energy)

The construction of the nuclear-powered steam supply project is expected to take 24 months to complete and is being taken up at a cost of 730.8 million yuan ($108.4 million) which also includes the cost of making new desalination plants, pumping stations, and power stations, CGTN said in its report.

The steam will be taken from secondary circuits of the Tianwan nuclear power plant, which was commissioned in 2006. According to the Eurasian Times, the steam will be transferred to the Lianyungang Petrochemical Industrial Base via an insulated above-ground pipeline. After going through a multi-stage heat exchange, the steam will be used in the industrial production process.

This project will also serve as an energy demonstration plan for upgrading and transforming China's petrochemical industry. The Lianyungang Petrochemical Industrial Base is one of China's seven petrochemical industry bases planned and constructed.

China's push for nuclear energy
Earlier this year, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) unveiled its vision for a greener future which includes turning to nuclear power for industrial applications such as heating and desalination, Eurasian Times reported.

According to the NDRC plan, China will invest heavily in building nuclear power plants along its coast while also supporting efforts at deploying other advanced nuclear energy technologies such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, fast reactors, modular small reactors, and offshore floating reactors. To sum up, the country wants to install 70 million kilowatts (7000 MW) of nuclear capacity by 2025.

The Tianwan plant that will begin supplying nuclear-powered steam has four operational nuclear reactors that Russia supplied. Units 5 and 6 of the power plant were built indigenously by China and are now operational since last year. Units 7 and 8 of the power plant have also been supplied by Russia and are currently under construction. With all units operational, the Tianwan plant will become the world's largest nuclear power plant with an operating capacity of 8,100 MW, Eurasian Times said. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2022, 07:55:38 AM

And so it begins. The first storm of 2022 is upon us. Shouldn't be bad - just a sloppy rainmaker. Winds about 40 MPH or so.

(https://i.imgur.com/lLNMq7w.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/HAsJpCq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 03, 2022, 08:53:08 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2022, 07:55:38 AM

And so it begins. The first storm of 2022 is upon us. Shouldn't be bad - just a sloppy rainmaker. Winds about 40 MPH or so.

(https://i.imgur.com/lLNMq7w.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/HAsJpCq.png)

Great. We're flying into Savanna tomorrow heading for Typee Island for a week of R&R. I hope this thing misses or clears out by then. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2022, 09:00:51 AM

Good luck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2022, 09:21:21 AM

NOB will be fine. Not gonna hit Savannah at all. Lots of rain here, but that's it. Just a sloppy rainmaker is all this was. Never did get a name.

Pool is full, for free. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2022, 08:46:58 AM

Storm has a name now - Alex. Expected to be in Bermuda tomorrow as a tropical storm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2022, 10:30:00 AM

Material that had detached from the steam guide plates was found in the turbine's steam reheater in May this year, which requires inspection and repair work, TVO said. According to investigations from the plant supplier, this repair work will last until the end of July.

The company noted that OL3's test production programme and electricity production can only be continued after the completion of the repair work. Additional time has been reserved in the schedule for the unit's upcoming tests and their analyses based on previous experiences from the test production phase.

"The test production phase will be completed in December 2022, which is when the plant unit's regular electricity production starts," TVO said. Regular electricity production at the EPR unit had previously been expected to begin in September.

The Areva-Siemens consortium constructed the OL3 plant under a fixed-price turnkey contract. They have joint liability for the contractual obligations until the end of the guarantee period of the unit. Construction of Olkiluoto 3 began in 2005, with completion of the reactor originally scheduled for 2009, but the project has had various delays and setbacks.

OL3 attained first criticality on 21 December last year and was connected to the grid on 12 March. At that time, TVO said a test production phase, lasting about four months, would follow during which OL3's power output will be gradually increased to 100%.

Once regular electricity production has started, OL3 will produce about 14% of Finland's total electricity consumption.


https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Olkiluoto-3-test-production-to-continue-until-Dece (https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Olkiluoto-3-test-production-to-continue-until-Dece)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2022, 11:30:20 AM

Cold front coming through, only going to be 100 tomorrow.  For real.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2022, 11:36:41 AM

This is the hottest it's been since we moved here 4 years ago and it's June.  Supposed to break "100°F next week, I think the hottest we had seen was 94°F.

I went running earlier and was drenched, duh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2022, 12:24:25 PM

was over 100 here a week ago, supposed to hit 100 again this weekend

not really normal for june, but not breaking records

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2022, 01:15:44 PM

97 to 100 every day for next week

pretty standard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2022, 07:23:00 PM

gonna be 20 degrees warmer than normal here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2022, 09:31:39 AM

Getting a little break today. Humidity is down and a high of only 90.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2022, 09:34:51 AM

92°F amd 74% predicted today, maybe the 74% is current and will drop with the heat.  The pool feels like bathwater temp.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2022, 09:52:29 AM

Our pool hasn't been below 85 for months. It will creep to 90+ on really hot, sunny days.

It's 86 right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2022, 10:05:50 AM

Our pool is on the south side of the building, which is white, so it gets reflected and direct solar input.  I don't think it's heated.

It's usually a bit cool this time of year.  Hardly anyone uses it weekdays but us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2022, 08:22:46 AM

Eight countries are updating their 2030 climate goals | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3528341-eight-countries-are-updating-their-2030-climate-goals/)

Without enablement, this seems to me to be just words on paper.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2022, 08:44:37 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/zwGsZse.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 20, 2022, 09:20:06 AM

(https://external.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?w=500&h=261&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com%2Fsiouxcityjournal.com%2Fcontent%2Ftncms%2Fassets%2Fv3%2Feditorial%2F6%2F14%2F6146448c-544d-5cc3-825a-4206623b4f9d%2F62b056cb91a10.preview.png%3Fcrop%3D789%252C414%252C0%252C17%26resize%3D789%252C414%26order%3Dcrop%252Cresize&cfs=1&ext=jpg&utld=townnews.com&_nc_oe=70500&_nc_sid=505865&_nc_o2e=1&ccb=3-6&_nc_hash=AQGp33ClIMnKTkOM)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on June 20, 2022, 08:36:58 PM

That sux it's been mostly 70s for about 4 weeks. 2days of 90s a week ago,68 now but supposed to be blistering tomorrow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 21, 2022, 07:36:26 AM

Climate Change Tracker

Their mission is to create an up-to-date tracker of the global warming and climate change problem, based on the latest available data from trusted scientific sources.

https://climatechangetracker.org/ (https://climatechangetracker.org/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2022, 07:48:26 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 21, 2022, 07:36:26 AM

Climate Change Tracker

Their mission is to create an up-to-date tracker of the global warming and climate change problem, based on the latest available data from trusted scientific sources.

https://climatechangetracker.org/ (https://climatechangetracker.org/)

THE SCIENCE!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2022, 08:53:23 AM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/flood-control-in-miami-beach-means-dry-roads-for-some-soaked-homes-for-others-11655812802?st=8l1fgp5blxhkwni&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2022, 01:29:13 PM

Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century | Nature Communications (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2022, 01:34:50 PM

Offline: The fairy tale of Paris (thelancet.com) (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(22)00976-X)

Are we fools? Do we really believe that the 2015 Paris Agreement will limit global warming to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1·5°C, compared with pre-industrial levels? Commitments made by countries today would limit warming to about 2·4°C (with a range up to 3·7°C). We are way off track to meet the aspirations of Paris. For those who believe we should maintain our optimism—after all, hope encourages action, pessimism feeds nihilism—please consider reading Daniel Yergin’s book about energy and climate, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations (2021). Five conclusions emerge from his sobering analysis. First, we have badly underestimated the scale of the changes we must make to the world’s economy to limit global warming. Our lives continue to be dangerously dependent on fossil fuels. 80% of the world’s energy is derived from oil, natural gas, and coal. Over the next two decades, a further US$20 trillion will be invested in oil and gas development. Second, the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables will be far more unpredictable than first envisaged. Projections about the uptake of electric vehicles, for example, vary wildly. Third, net zero emissions are not the same as zero emissions—achieving the 1·5°C target depends on carbon capture technologies that presently do not exist. Fourth, the velocity of political change needed to deliver Paris is not only unprecedented, but also full of risk. Rivalries between energy superpowers could easily spill over into full-blown conflict. And, finally, meeting climate goals requires nothing less than a total reconstruction of human civilisation—within a single generation. The Paris Agreement increasingly looks like a beautiful fairy tale. A story that conjured an imaginary, magical, and wholly fictional future. A fabrication with the intention to deceive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 22, 2022, 02:35:53 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 22, 2022, 01:34:50 PM

Offline: The fairy tale of Paris (thelancet.com) (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(22)00976-X)

 The Paris Agreement increasingly looks like a beautiful fairy tale. A story that conjured an imaginary, magical, and wholly fictional future. A fabrication with the intention to deceive.

Which is why Trump pulled us away from it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2022, 04:08:01 PM

Big quake in the 'Stan today. Sounds like over 1000 dead.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2022, 10:04:05 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 22, 2022, 02:35:53 PM

Which is why Trump pulled us away from it

well, that's one reason

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 22, 2022, 10:08:26 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 22, 2022, 10:04:05 PM

well, that's one reason

its the one he gave

do you have another

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2022, 10:23:45 PM

perhaps he just wanted to annoy a whole bunch of people from many continents

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 22, 2022, 10:37:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 22, 2022, 10:23:45 PM

perhaps he just wanted to annoy a whole bunch of people from many continents

thats a given

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2022, 08:29:12 AM

Whether we pull out or get into this agreement in my view means zilch, absolutely nothing.  It's a feel good piece of paper meaning nothing.  But the pols can point to it and claim they did something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2022, 08:44:47 AM

Pretty slow start to storm season here. Only one so far, and it didn't get a name until it moved over Florida and into the Atlantic. Petered out pretty quickly after it got named.

I guess the Sahara dust is helping out. Need to read up on that more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2022, 08:48:27 AM

The hurricane thing is unpredictable as to when one will get formed specifically.  They try of course and make a general prediction about the season.  We might have none in July and then a bunch in August, or not.  It's an interesting problem, I'm sure, with a lot of variables, like dust in the air.  I'm sure folks have simple models for years, they don't seem to work very well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2022, 09:03:38 AM

The teeth of the season is really Late August to mid November. That's when the water is warmest, although it is warmer than normal in some key spots now.

I had a couple of meteorology classes at UW, and a couple while going through the process of getting my USCG Captain's License. 

I kinda wish I would have gone that route sometimes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2022, 09:12:43 AM

When I was flying I'd pay more attention to the weather.  We had to reserve the plane a few days ahead of time.  It's probably a bit like boating, you don't want to be out with higher winds (gusts) and certainly not heavy weather.  Even just clouds or fog would keep us grounded.  I recall going up a few times in winter when there was frost on the wings, my instructor showed me how to remove it.  You lose a lot of lift with frost on the wings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2022, 09:16:36 AM

We were on the water on Sunday, about 10 miles away from the home port.

I saw something forming in the sky and nixed going to a beach in the Gulf. 

Passengers (including Mrs. 847) were not happy, saying I was being too careful. They said it was nothing.

I made a beeline for the home port, going almost 50 MPH (top speed) the whole time.

Minutes after tying up, lightning starts and the skies opened.

Passengers thanked me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2022, 09:48:14 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2022, 09:16:36 AM

We were on the water on Sunday, about 10 miles away from the home port.

I saw something forming in the sky and nixed going to a beach in the Gulf.

Passengers (including Mrs. 847) were not happy, saying I was being too careful. They said it was nothing.

I made a beeline for the home port, going almost 50 MPH (top speed) the whole time.

Minutes after tying up, lightning starts and the skies opened.

Passengers thanked me.

Having been raised in Galveston and my Dad having a shrimping business on the side I spent a lot of time on the water

If there was a storm in the distance and all the shrimpers started heading for port it was time to hurry ashore cause you could bet the storm was headed our way

My Dad used to say the sea is not your friend and should be very respected

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2022, 09:52:18 AM

Oh hell yes. The sea is THE BOSS.

So are the Great Lakes. Not to be messed with.

On my old boat up there I had radar. I'd set it for 24 miles and I could see weather coming with that.

We outran or went around storms several times. Wish I had that here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2022, 09:44:06 AM

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates Texas’ power grid for more than 26 million customers – or about 90% of the state’s power load – says it still has enough reserve capacity to meet growing demand. It had ample reserve power to deal with record demand a little over a week ago.

Records will likely continue to be broken this week with AccuWeather forecasting temperatures topping 100 degrees this week.

Demand will also likely rise amid overall economic and population growth in Texas. ERCOT anticipates new wind and solar power plants added over the past year will increase resources this summer to more than 91,300 megawatts. Texas produces more natural gas than any other state, according to the EIA, and has also responded to the historic 2021 freeze by adding natural gas and renewable power generation capacity.

Power prices at the ERCOT North Hub – which includes Dallas – slid to a two-week low of $81 per megawatt hour Tuesday – down from $100 on Friday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2022, 09:54:06 AM

Are Low-Lying Islands Helpless in the Face of Sea Level Rise? - HumanProgress (https://www.humanprogress.org/are-low-lying-islands-helpless-in-the-face-of-sea-level-rise/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 08:09:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 26, 2022, 09:54:06 AM

Are Low-Lying Islands Helpless in the Face of Sea Level Rise? - HumanProgress (https://www.humanprogress.org/are-low-lying-islands-helpless-in-the-face-of-sea-level-rise/)

Context is everything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 08:10:43 AM

Went to a friend's house yesterday. Had a nice time but it took a long time to get home as most of the roads were flooded. Lots of rain yesterday. As much as 10" in spots. We got about an inch here at home.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 09:14:53 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/X2mRmIV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 09:24:14 AM

How a massive refinery shortage is contributing to high gas prices : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/06/26/1107265390/refinery-shortage-high-gas-prices-russia)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 09:34:55 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 09:24:14 AM

How a massive refinery shortage is contributing to high gas prices : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/06/26/1107265390/refinery-shortage-high-gas-prices-russia)

Yeah, and it seems unlikely that oil companies will be in a hurry to build new ones given the EV projections.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2022, 10:11:02 AM

The current status of our energy output is no where near what it will take to charge EVs every day if we go to all EVs 

Not sure what the plans are for increasing our energy output to do this but I doubt windmills will do it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 11:31:21 AM

Nuclear is the answer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2022, 11:38:04 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 11:31:21 AM

Nuclear is the answer.

I agree cept I dont think reactors will go well on planes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 11:38:40 AM

I read somewhere that the transition will be about like that for central air.  We'll have to increase capacity gradually no doubt, but nuclear won't be the path chosen.  NG is going to be Number One for a long time in the US.  Wind and solar will continue to grow of course, perhaps fast enough to compensate for increased demand, I don't know.

Nuclear simply is off the table in the US.  I think after Vogtle is completed we won't see another large nuclear plant in the US.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 11:39:22 AM

I think aircraft MAY end up with hydrogen or ammonia.  The latter is interesting as an option.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 11:43:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 11:38:40 AM

I read somewhere that the transition will be about like that for central air.  We'll have to increase capacity gradually no doubt, but nuclear won't be the path chosen.  NG is going to be Number One for a long time in the US.  Wind and solar will continue to grow of course, perhaps fast enough to compensate for increased demand, I don't know.

Nuclear simply is off the table in the US.  I think after Vogtle is completed we won't see another large nuclear plant in the US.

And that is STUPID.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 11:47:24 AM

Jane Fonda: If Biden runs in 2024, he’ll need to ‘get better on climate’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3538094-jane-fonda-if-biden-runs-in-2024-hell-need-to-get-better-on-climate/)

I chuckled a bit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2022, 11:56:01 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 11:47:24 AM

Jane Fonda: If Biden runs in 2024, he’ll need to ‘get better on climate’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3538094-jane-fonda-if-biden-runs-in-2024-hell-need-to-get-better-on-climate/)

I chuckled a bit.

Thats the only flaw she sees

these folks are insane

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 11:58:46 AM

Well, it's the flaw she cited, she probably has others, dunno.  I find it interesting to imagine if we didn't take oil out of the ground we'd then burn less of it, somehow, instead of say importing it from other places.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2022, 12:24:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 27, 2022, 11:58:46 AM

Well, it's the flaw she cited, she probably has others, dunno.  I find it interesting to imagine if we didn't take oil out of the ground we'd then burn less of it, somehow, instead of say importing it from other places.

yes we could just roll over and die or we could continue our industrial growth guided by proper leadership and continue to be a world leader

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 27, 2022, 02:22:21 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2022, 09:34:55 AM

Yeah, and it seems unlikely that oil companies will be in a hurry to build new ones given the EV projections.

More than the EV's, it's the current regulaltory process along with the money supply that is being choked off due to ESG scores. Big Oil is being targeted from all angles that is driving investments away. Not sure that I would invest is oil right now until things change. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 28, 2022, 09:38:15 PM

Solar-powered patio umbrellas sold exclusively at Costco have been recalled in the United States and Canada after some umbrellas caught fire, authorities said.

The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) in a news release urged customers to "immediately stop using" the SunVilla 10-foot Solar LED Market Umbrella.


The umbrellas were produced by California-based SunVilla Corp., the news release says. They feature LED lights on the inside arms and a solar panel with a black cover at the top of the umbrella.

"The lithium-ion batteries in the umbrella's solar panels can overheat, posing fire and burn hazards," the CPSC said.

The umbrellas were sold at Costco warehouses and online for between $130 and $160 from December 2020 through May 2022, the CPSC said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2022, 01:04:22 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 28, 2022, 09:38:15 PM

Solar-powered patio umbrellas sold exclusively at Costco have been recalled in the United States and Canada after some umbrellas caught fire, authorities said.

The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) in a news release urged customers to "immediately stop using" the SunVilla 10-foot Solar LED Market Umbrella.


The umbrellas were produced by California-based SunVilla Corp., the news release says. They feature LED lights on the inside arms and a solar panel with a black cover at the top of the umbrella.

"The lithium-ion batteries in the umbrella's solar panels can overheat, posing fire and burn hazards," the CPSC said.

The umbrellas were sold at Costco warehouses and online for between $130 and $160 from December 2020 through May 2022, the CPSC said.

Yeah.... uhh... as an engineer that was once responsible for safety assurance in R&D, plus QC in manufacturing, this is... well... really bad.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2022, 08:41:51 AM

$150 for an item that probably cost less than $50 to finish

they may have rushed to market

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2022, 08:47:25 AM

They probably used a battery from some supplier who perhaps claimed it was safe, and did no testing themselves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2022, 08:48:05 AM

European nations now are restarting coal plants to handle the NG shortage.

There is no plan, at all, just verbiage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2022, 08:53:54 AM

everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth by Putin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2022, 01:17:38 PM

Hidden carbon layer may have sparked ancient bout of global warming | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/hidden-carbon-layer-may-have-sparked-ancient-bout-global-warming?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Facebook)

Interesting.

There is no perfect parallel in Earth’s past for present-day climate change—human-driven warming is simply happening too fast and furiously. The closest analog came 56 million years ago, when over the course of 3000 to 5000 years, greenhouse gases soared in the atmosphere, causing at least 5°C of warming and pushing tropical species to the poles.

The cause of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) has long been debated, with researchers invoking exotic mechanisms such as catastrophic releases of methane from the sea floor or even asteroid strikes. But over the past few years, evidence has mounted for a more prosaic culprit: carbon-spewing volcanoes that emerged underneath Greenland as it tore away from Europe. Now, researchers have found signs of an effect that would have supercharged the warming effect of the volcanoes, making them a stronger suspect. The underside of Greenland is thought to be encrusted with carbon-rich rocks, like barnacles on the keel of a ship. During the rifting, they might have liberated a gusher of carbon dioxide (CO₂), says Thomas Gernon, a geologist at the University of Southampton and leader of the new study. “It’s a perfect storm of conditions.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2022, 10:14:53 AM

Supreme Court curbs EPA’s climate powers | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3542545-supreme-court-curbs-epas-climate-powers/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2022, 10:36:43 PM

good

not for the environment

but good for the economy and business in the USA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 01, 2022, 08:06:01 AM

This ruling really takes the starch out of the 4th branch of the federal government, not just the EPA.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2022, 08:07:34 AM

I'm not sure how impactful that ruling will be on the ground, just not sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2022, 02:15:15 PM

Washington Post reporter laments the energy crisis and high gas prices ‘aren’t spurring a green revolution’ | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/media/washington-post-reporter-laments-energy-crisis-high-gas-prices-spurring-green-revolution)

The author cited a European think tank which found that "record growth in wind and solar last year was outpaced by the world’s rising demand for energy."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2022, 07:07:08 AM

Biden administration punts on whether to open up more offshore drilling | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3544302-biden-administration-punts-on-whether-to-open-up-more-offshore-drilling/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2022, 08:09:07 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2022, 07:07:08 AM

Biden administration punts on whether to open up more offshore drilling | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3544302-biden-administration-punts-on-whether-to-open-up-more-offshore-drilling/)

This will certainly help.

Someone. Or no one.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-plans-to-block-new-offshore-oil-drilling-in-atlantic-pacific-11656709209?st=fxx9nk72er4eipj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2022, 08:44:53 AM

They release their 0-11 "plan" late Friday before a holiday for a reason.  

UGA plans to win 0-15 games in 2022.  That's the plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 02, 2022, 08:50:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2022, 07:07:08 AM

Biden administration punts on whether to open up more offshore drilling | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3544302-biden-administration-punts-on-whether-to-open-up-more-offshore-drilling/)

dumbass

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 02, 2022, 10:57:05 AM

Behold California's devotion to reducing CO2 emissions, by sending one of their state schools to a conference where all of the other teams are two or three time zones away. 


File this one under "do as we say, not as we do" 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2022, 09:51:48 AM

Zero-waste groceries: Can buy enough to eat without plastic packaging? : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/07/02/1109498551/she-tried-to-avoid-plastic-while-grocery-shopping-for-a-week-heres-how-it-went)

Kinda funny/sad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 03, 2022, 09:57:52 AM

One time I walked in on a guy at work while he was eating the biodegradable packing peanuts. That was pretty funny. 

He said that they were made from wheat and starch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2022, 09:59:51 AM

Pros and Cons of Biodegradable Packing Peanuts - Heritage Paper (https://www.heritagepaper.net/pros-and-cons-of-biodegradable-packing-peanuts/#:~:text=Biodegradable packing peanuts are made,will not stick to clothes.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2022, 11:57:44 AM

Why there’s still a rational case for climate optimism | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3550018-why-theres-still-a-rational-case-for-climate-optimism/)

No, there isn't, this is absurd.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2022, 06:53:47 PM

Nice day today here in Houston.  Temp of 103 but hey things could be worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on July 08, 2022, 11:33:11 PM

Such glorious relief getting to Milwaukee today. 70 on the dot for a high.   Feels so good after past few weeks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2022, 08:32:44 AM

First time I've worn pants since I was here for the Holidays.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 09, 2022, 08:49:39 AM

73 sunny here with a slight northern breeze,beautiful

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2022, 09:19:14 AM

The wind is howling off of the Lake Michigan Ice Box today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2022, 01:45:16 PM

The GTF-powered E195-E2 aircraft completed two days of ground tests at Fort Lauderdale International Airport, culminating in a 70-minute flight test at Vero Beach Regional Airport in Florida.

At the moment, both GTF engines and Embraer aircraft are certified to operate with SAF blended up to 50% with standard Jet A/A1 kerosene. The future specification will enable blends of up to 100% SAF to maximize the emissions reduction potential of using fuel derived from sustainable, non-fossil-based feedstocks.

The test validated that GTF engines and the E-Jets E2 family are compatible with 100% SAF.
The test validated that GTF engines and the E-Jets E2 family are compatible with 100% SAF. Credit: Pratt & Whitney
“The E2 is already the most efficient single-aisle aircraft flying today, saving up to 25% CO2 emissions compared to previous generation aircraft. This reduction in emissions can be increased up to an impressive 85% with 100% SAF. Replacement of older aircraft with new-generation products and scaling up SAF production are the two most effective actions commercial aviation can take now to achieve a significant reduction in emissions,” said Rodrigo Silva e Souza, vice president of strategy and sustainability at Embraer Commercial Aviation.


“Embraer and Pratt & Whitney are leading the industry with products that are more efficient for our customers and more sustainable for our society. This test demonstrates that the E2 is ready for 100% SAF certification and operation once the industry finalizes standards.”

The SAF used by Pratt & Whitney and Embraer was 100% Hydroprocessed Esters, and Fatty Acids Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosine (HEFA-SPK) acquired from World Energy. HEFA-SPK is a specific type of hydrotreated renewable feedstock fuel used in aviation and is considered a leading alternative replacement for conventional jet fuel by the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI) due to the sustainability of its feedstock.

Certified for operation on 50% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and successfully tested on 100% SAF, the engines are capable of even lower carbon emissions, which will help the industry meet its target of net zero emissions by 2050.


https://www.inceptivemind.com/embraer-100-percent-saf-flight-testing-gtf-powered-e195-e2-aircraft/25317/ (https://www.inceptivemind.com/embraer-100-percent-saf-flight-testing-gtf-powered-e195-e2-aircraft/25317/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2022, 07:32:19 PM

brother said it was hot in Texas

we have humidity in Iowa - feels like 124

(https://i.imgur.com/7VM3P04.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2022, 07:59:05 PM

Got up to 104 here in Houston today

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2022, 07:30:00 AM

Wore pants and a sweatshirt yesterday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 11, 2022, 09:38:32 AM

Much nicer than 104 >:(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2022, 10:02:37 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 11, 2022, 09:38:32 AM

Much nicer than 104 >:(

I love hot weather so Im in heaven or maybe my brain is fried who knows

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2022, 10:03:28 AM

I think I know

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2022, 10:05:55 AM

Its supposed to get to 102 today but a cold front moves in late Tuesday and Wednesdays high will only be 98 and its going to plunge to 95 on Thursday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on July 11, 2022, 11:08:39 AM

Fudge me it was hot.  Was working outside yesterday, sweated my balls off and gulping water by the gallon !  

I know it get hot in places further north, but I'm betting it doesn't get as hot as early, and it cools off quite a bit at night.  

Staying above 80 deg F at night and throw in the 90-100% humidity it makes it feel so bad.  I've seriously thought about moving somewhere a little further North, like Northern Arkansas or Southern Missouri just to get away form the severe heat.  I realize it gets much colder in winter, but I don't think I'll mind.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2022, 11:44:11 AM

Temps were in the mid 90s in New Orleans, the locals we talked to mentioned the heat and asked if we were okay.  When I left Austin it was 105. I said, "We're fine, this is a refreshing change."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2022, 11:47:54 AM

a refreshing change was temps in the mid 60's overnight.  Was refreshing to have the windows open

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 12, 2022, 12:31:00 PM

My brother and his family who live in Brandon, FL, were home last week and froze to death in the evenings when the temp got into the low 70's; that is about the temp were I stop sweating. It cooled off enough for a couple of days that we were able to shut the AC off and open the windows. One evening, the weather channel was saying that we may dip into the low 50's or high 40's. I don't know if we did, but I slept like a baby with the windows open and fan blowing on me. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2022, 12:34:13 PM

I'm good in the low 70s.  Low 60s and I'm looking for a jacket.  Anything in the 50s might as well be the North Pole.

On the flipside, I won't even mention the heat until we hit triple digits for a couple weeks in a row.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2022, 12:35:55 PM

June Electric bill was $88

May bill was $49

the AC hasn't run much up to that point and the wind power in Iowa must be cheap

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2022, 12:50:37 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2022, 12:35:55 PM

June Electric bill was $88

May bill was $49

the AC hasn't run much up to that point and the wind power in Iowa must be cheap

plenty of wind in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2022, 01:08:35 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2022, 12:50:37 PM

plenty of wind in Iowa

Fearless always provides plenty of hot air for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2022, 02:16:45 PM

It is pretty nice today in the shade, pretty hot in the sun, but humidity is tolerable weather app says 85°F and 61%.  We were out for a walk, had lunch at a new "Korean" place pretty far from us, down near Tech,  it was "OK".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2022, 06:27:49 AM

Climate crisis: Airlines criticized for betting on alternative fuels (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/climate-crisis-airlines-criticized-for-betting-on-alternative-fuels.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 23, 2022, 11:43:14 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/lZMVgJZ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/N8xKh9U.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 23, 2022, 12:07:48 PM

I remember an engineering symposium I attended at Northwestern University in 1989.  There were keynote speakers on various topics related to engineering, and the one that was speaking on behalf of the Environmental Engineering specialty, stated that the world would run out of fossil fuels by the year 2000.

So, um, that was something, anyway.  Glad I decided not to go to Northwestern...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2022, 12:14:10 PM

yup, back in about 1976 there was gas rationing and declarations that the world would run out of oil before 2000

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 23, 2022, 12:31:36 PM

Speaking of weather, I'm headed out to the lake to beat the heat.  Y'all stay cool!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2022, 01:41:55 PM

That meme like many of its ilk is entirely misleading and incorrect.

Firstly, Gore never said that, he did misquote someone who he claimed mentioned it would probably be ice free by then, but the scientists said he would never claim such a thing.  And sea levels of course are highly variable on a diurnal basis, not to mention the rise predicted even by 2050 is very slight.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2022, 02:35:11 PM

The heat is no problem for me

the problem is we need more rain

currently Houston is about 16 inches below normal year to date

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 23, 2022, 02:53:52 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 23, 2022, 12:14:10 PM

yup, back in about 1976 there was gas rationing and declarations that the world would run out of oil before 2000

With you running the station and your posse pulling in for their discounts that was a possibility

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 23, 2022, 03:04:01 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2022, 01:41:55 PM

That meme like many of its ilk is entirely misleading and incorrect.

Firstly, Gore never said that, he did misquote someone who he claimed mentioned it would probably be ice free by then, but the scientists said he would never claim such a thing.  And sea levels of course are highly variable on a diurnal basis, not to mention the rise predicted even by 2050 is very slight.

He prolly said it,he said "During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet." when running for the Dem-Nom in '99 - it's not a stretch

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2022, 05:56:12 PM

Speaking of Gore, he now thinks "democracy" is the problem, sort of, because folks don't vote how he'd like.

Al Gore: America must address ‘democracy crisis’ to solve climate crisis | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3571760-al-gore-america-must-address-democracy-crisis-to-solve-climate-crisis/)

I don't think much of Gore at all, I think he really harmed the issues with his idiotic film by making this political, which I suppose was inevitable otherwise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 24, 2022, 08:38:14 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 23, 2022, 02:35:11 PM

The heat is no problem for me

the problem is we need more rain

currently Houston is about 16 inches below normal year to date

Yeah same here.  If I had a problem with heat, I wouldn't live here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2022, 08:48:41 AM

We've had a good amount of rain this summer here in the ATL.  A few thunderstorms but not anything major, as yet.   This place often gets rain around 5 PM for half an hour and then steam.   I can lie in the pool and watch the cumulus build up, it's impressive.  I planted too many cucumber vines though.

Atlanta, Georgia gets 51.5 inches of rain, on average, per year. Seattle, Washington gets 38 inches of rain, on average, per year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2022, 09:02:11 AM

In Seattle it mists every day. My wife recalls one year (she lived there for 4) where she saw the sun 6 times. SIX.

That would suck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2022, 09:11:37 AM

Yeah, it's rarely sunny in Seattle, and it doesn't rain that much volumewise.

It's really beautiful on the rare clear days though.  In spots.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2022, 09:17:06 AM

A nuclear energy facility has a small area footprint, requiring about 1.3 square miles per 1,000 megawatts of installed capacity. This figure is based on the median land area of the 59 nuclear plant sites in the United States. In addition, nuclear energy facilities have an average capacity factor of 90 percent, much higher than intermittent sources like wind and solar.
By contrast, wind farm capacity factors range from 32 to 47 percent, depending on differences in wind resources in a given area and improvements in turbine technology. Solar PV capacity factors also vary based on location and technology, from 17 to 28 percent.
Taking these factors into account, a wind farm would need an installed capacity between 1,900 megawatts and 2,800 MW to generate the same amount of electricity in a year as a 1,000-MW nuclear energy facility. Such a facility would require between 260 square miles and 360 square miles of land.
A solar PV facility must have an installed capacity of 3,300 MW and 5,400 MW to match a 1,000-MW nuclear facility’s output, requiring between 45 and 75 square miles.
For comparison, the District of Columbia’s total land area is 68 square miles. The island of Manhattan is 34 square miles, and New York City’s five boroughs (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx) take up 305 square miles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 24, 2022, 12:21:04 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 24, 2022, 08:38:14 AM

Yeah same here.  If I had a problem with heat, I wouldn't live here.

I was in Vegas several years ago and was staying at the Desert Inn which had a golf course

One day about noon I decided I wanted to play golf and walked out to the starter

I asked him where everyone was as it was almost void of golfers

He said folks just dont want to play in this heat and I can get you out right away

It was 95 degrees and I thought wow if folks in Texas felt that way there would never be any golf played from July through August

I rented a cart and teamed up with a policeman from Dallas.  We both laughed at our good fortune

we played 36 holes of golf in 5 and a half hours and had a very good time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on July 24, 2022, 06:56:45 PM

3rd tornado warning of season in my neighborhood today.  These pass through so fast.    

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2022, 07:54:15 AM

Something like 90% of the world's tornadoes happen in the US lower 48.

I did see a water spout in Hawaii once, it was impressive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2022, 08:09:09 AM

Oddly enough, it has been normally hot here, no heat wave of note.  I see much of the rest of the US has had unusual heat.

Predicted high today of 88°F and around 90°F in the ten day, which is right on average.

It's pretty hot feeling in the sun obviously, in the shade with a breeze it's tolerable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 25, 2022, 08:16:48 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 25, 2022, 07:54:15 AM

Something like 90% of the world's tornadoes happen in the US lower 48.

I did see a water spout in Hawaii once, it was impressive.

Seen  a few on Lake Erie, for what ever reason they don't turn into tornados when reaching land

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2022, 08:33:17 AM

A buddy of mine saw one on Lake Lanier, he said it was all white, and as it reached land, a band of dark started and ran up to the cloud layer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 25, 2022, 08:34:15 AM

Anybody remember this water spout in Miami, 1997?

(https://i.imgur.com/EssIqJW.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/bhPkAWQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 25, 2022, 09:17:31 AM

nope

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 08:18:44 AM

Eight years? Nine years? Six years ago? A climate change activist guide to doomsday | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/climate-activists-embrace-doomsday-rhetoric-despite-falling-flat-in-previous-warnings)

One issue is this "thing" is very gradual, if you credit the models at all.  Things like sea level and T rises are predicted to be very very gradual, a long term issue, if they are about right, but not something a human would really notice over a couple decades.

And you can't blame every weather event on CC, tecnically speaking.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 08:55:33 AM

but, they do

and most of us know it's BS

others believe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 08:56:24 AM

I don't think it's "BS" at all, personally, but I see a ton of exaggeration by politicians out there.

And no PLAN.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 09:02:20 AM

just last night, local and national news state that the Oak fire in Cali and the heat wave in the northeast are results of climate change

the line of thunderstorms moving into the northeast today will be blamed on climate change by the media

of the 3 events, one, two, all three, or none maybe results of climate change

unless they are using a different definition of climate change

they have very little idea, but they continue to push the message - that's BS

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 09:31:14 AM

Yeah, these are basically political talking heads.  The fact they exaggerate and get it wrong doesn't mean the science itself is worthless and wrong, they just don't know enough about the actual science to talk about it properly.  If they did, it wouldn't seem quite as dramatically dire as they want it to seem so as to get political action.

I've shown this before, it's a projection, and the 8.5 scenario is basically ridiculous and can be ignored.

(https://i.imgur.com/FEFkxO0.png)

So, one can see by 2050, sea level rise from today is something nobody could see, it's perhaps barely measurable.  It's around half a meter by 2100, 78 years from now.  That wouldn't be a great thing, but it's ~18 inches, in 78 years, not something where Manhattan is under eleventy feet of water.

I don't see any way the planet gets to net zero by 2050, but probably by 2100 we'll be around that.  This simply isn't calamitous enough to get political action.  So they lie about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 09:54:09 AM

dont worry POLTUS declared an emergency to address it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 09:58:09 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 09:54:09 AM

dont worry POLTUS declared an emergency to address it

Actually, he didn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 10:02:43 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 09:54:09 AM

dont worry POLTUS declared an emergency to address it

stop with the exaggerations

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 10:05:01 AM

Biden announces new climate programs, but no emergency declaration (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/biden-announces-new-climate-change-programs-no-emergency-declaration.html)

• The initiatives include providing $2.3 billion in funding for a program that helps communities prepare for disasters by expanding flood control and retrofitting buildings, as well as leveraging funding to help low-income families cover heating and cooling costs.
• The president also is directing the Department of the Interior to propose new offshore wind areas in the Gulf of Mexico, a plan that could power more than 3 million homes and advance the transition to clean energy.

This really is pretty lame, just meant to be some political optics.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 10:14:58 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 10:02:43 AM

stop with the exaggerations

thats really funny coming from you Mr. Pot

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 10:16:37 AM

One side likes to hype the thing into a major urgent crisis.  Another side likes to claim it's not real at all.

I think both are wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 10:19:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 10:16:37 AM

One side likes to hype the thing into a major urgent crisis.  Another side likes to claim it's not real at all.

I think both are wrong.

I dont think anyone doubts the climate changes but whether or not man is responsible

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 10:20:59 AM

so if Biden didnt declare an emergency on climate whats this?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/06/declaration-of-emergency-and-authorization-for-temporary-extensions-of-time-and-duty-free-importation-of-solar-cells-and-modules-from-southeast-asia/

  NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including by section 318(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, 19 U.S.C. 1318(a), do hereby declare an emergency to exist with respect to the threats to the availability of sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet expected customer demand.  Pursuant to this declaration, I hereby direct as follows:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 10:21:41 AM

I'm pretty confident, myself, that human activity is causing a lot of the climate changing that is happening.  I rather hope the models are wrong on the right side, I know they are wrong.  It could be worse than they predict also.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 10:23:04 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 10:20:59 AM

so if Biden didnt declare an emergency on climate whats this?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/06/declaration-of-emergency-and-authorization-for-temporary-extensions-of-time-and-duty-free-importation-of-solar-cells-and-modules-from-southeast-asia/

  NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including by section 318(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, 19 U.S.C. 1318(a), do hereby declare an emergency to exist with respect to the threats to the availability of sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet expected customer demand.  Pursuant to this declaration, I hereby direct as follows:

That's a minor thing relating to import tariffs, it's not a "climate emergency" of the kind expected.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 10:44:11 AM

so declaring an emergency on climate is really not declaring an emergency on climate if its about tariffs

sounds reasonable to me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 10:45:49 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 10:21:41 AM

I'm pretty confident, myself, that human activity is causing a lot of the climate changing that is happening.  I rather hope the models are wrong on the right side, I know they are wrong.  It could be worse than they predict also.

There has never been a mystery as to your beliefs CD

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 10:47:42 AM

It's a declaration of energy emergency, not a declaration of climate emergency.

The proposed solution is solar and you can make of that what you will, but I'm not seeing the language that you are interpreting  as some sort of declaration of climate emergency.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 11:21:41 AM

Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 10:47:42 AM

It's a declaration of energy emergency, not a declaration of climate emergency.

The proposed solution is solar and you can make of that what you will, but I'm not seeing the language that you are interpreting  as some sort of declaration of climate emergency.

Its because their solution is solar that its obvious that this is part of their green agenda which is tied to climate change

But tech it is declaring an energy emergency

First cut oil production then declare an emergency to obtain more solar equipment

it all comes back to the green movement

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 11:31:11 AM

US oil production is headed up rather strongly, and will be setting records next year.  We may reach the 2019 record late this year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 11:32:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 11:31:11 AM

US oil production is headed up rather strongly, and will be setting records next year.  We may reach the 2019 record late this year.

Yup

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 11:33:15 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 10:45:49 AM

There has never been a mystery as to your beliefs CD

I've said before, I made an earnest attempt to read the technical literature on this topic, something probably few do.  It's complex.  I'm not a fan of the models very much at all, but I do think the evidence for anthrogenic climate change is pretty compelling.

I find most on both sides evidence little real understanding of the topic and don't make any effort to learn about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 11:42:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 11:31:11 AM

US oil production is headed up rather strongly, and will be setting records next year.  We may reach the 2019 record late this year.

good news for the Lone Star State

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 11:47:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 11:31:11 AM

US oil production is headed up rather strongly, and will be setting records next year.  We may reach the 2019 record late this year.

I'll believe it when I see it

and if it happens we will need to replenish or emergency reserve and stop selling it to lower gas prices

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 11:52:56 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 11:42:10 AM

good news for the Lone Star State

Already good news here, lots of folks start pumping when the price reaches 90 or so.

My buddy who owns a couple of oil wells in South Texas that were mostly idle during the 90s and 2000s, bought himself a $3M house in Central Austin for cash, during the LAST high-price period.

Now he's looking at island beachfront property in the Caribbean.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 11:55:25 AM

Mr. President, we have a climate emergency | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3574557-mr-president-we-have-a-climate-emergency/)

With his climate-action bill shot down in Congress, President Biden  (https://thehill.com/people/biden/)is considering whether the climate emergency warrants an official declaration (https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/07/18/biden-climate-emergency-manchin/) that would give the president extra executive authority to deal with it. There shouldn’t be much debate. If Biden believes his own words that climate change is the “number one issue facing humanity,” he should use all the powers he has to confront it head-on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 12:04:30 PM

which brings us back to the fact that anything we do even if by a well developed plan is pointless without a similar commitment from China and India

I dont see emptying our cash over climate change as a good thing when China goes right on as usual laughing at us

All that seems to be happening is spending money to drive up inflation with no up side at all

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 12:14:25 PM

I'd be happy with a rough outline of a plan somewhere instead of just "pass this bill and we'll throw money at it for a while" ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 12:20:40 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 11:47:45 AM

I'll believe it when I see it

and if it happens we will need to replenish or emergency reserve and stop selling it to lower gas prices

I think it will happen

when the price goes up, folks find a way to pump more oil

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 12:24:38 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 12:20:40 PM

I think it will happen

when the price goes up, folks find a way to pump more oil

at which point Saudi Arabia will open the flood gates to run all the little guys out of business then shut down and so it goes on and on and on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 26, 2022, 12:27:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 11:31:11 AM

US oil production is headed up rather strongly, and will be setting records next year.  We may reach the 2019 record late this year.

Yes it is. However, short term oil production in the US isn't the issue. The issue is that the Biden Admin has made future exploration almost impossible. Between the restricting of certain Federal Lands, the onerous and excessive permitting process and the ESG scoring that essentially denys funds to oil companies for future, long term projects, the future of US oil is in danger. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 12:55:27 PM

The U.S. Becomes World’s Top LNG Exporter | OilPrice.com (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-US-Becomes-Worlds-Top-LNG-Exporter.html?fbclid=IwAR03bgh5PrQxuly0GDlNY0AYuBYqtntc2W3v_4OTUEGOUIVzf9T5zvZMODo)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 01:07:59 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 12:24:38 PM

at which point Saudi Arabia will open the flood gates to run all the little guys out of business then shut down and so it goes on and on and on

I can't wait....  $1.99 gasoline again!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 02:12:42 PM

This is pretty close to me. I go by boat to a restaurant near this shithole marina. It needs to be condemned.

400 gallons of oil pulled from Charlotte County marina after fire, more pollution remains (winknews.com) (https://www.winknews.com/2022/07/25/400-gallons-of-oil-pulled-from-charlotte-county-marina-after-boat-fire-more-pollution-remains/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 02:16:31 PM

it's Florida, yer gonna have some of that "shithole"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 02:20:28 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 02:16:31 PM

it's Florida, yer gonna have some of that "shithole"

Nope, all other states are shitholes, Florida is not.

Except for 3/4 of the state that is inland.

And the parts that are close to Alabama. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 02:39:01 PM

This Riviera Marina is in a primo spot. I'd love to own it and operate it correctly. It could be a gold mine.

(https://i.imgur.com/Ng72gxd.png)

Instead, it's this:

(https://i.imgur.com/04bIr2C.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 03:33:37 PM

According to the Environmental Protection Agency, transportation overtook electricity generation in 2017 as the economic sector responsible for the most carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions.

Transportation-related emissions were responsible for more than a quarter of all emissions in 2019. And while emissions from the sector dropped in 2020 due to people staying home during the pandemic, it remained one of the top emissions sources.

In 2019, the most recent year for which state emissions data by economic sector is available, transportation accounted for more than 40% of emissions in 12 states. Hawaii's share was the highest at 48%. On the other end are Wyoming and North Dakota, where less than 10% of emissions came from traveling.

Where emissions in each state come from


https://usafacts.org/articles/where-carbon-emissions-come-from-in-each-state/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Paid&utm_campaign=General&utm_content=CarbonEmissionsStates_Desktop_News&fbclid=IwAR0sPBRQ70UurCvw0hmY0DOVf-KO0ZbxBXTWucfLJ3cA8D9SgsbzxvGXKMY (https://usafacts.org/articles/where-carbon-emissions-come-from-in-each-state/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Paid&utm_campaign=General&utm_content=CarbonEmissionsStates_Desktop_News&fbclid=IwAR0sPBRQ70UurCvw0hmY0DOVf-KO0ZbxBXTWucfLJ3cA8D9SgsbzxvGXKMY)

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t45.1600-4/280172159_23850512518230700_7121010280167046_n.png?stp=cp0_dst-jpg_p526x296_q90_spS444&_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=67cdda&_nc_ohc=JDxPO0h_vZ8AX-AZy8P&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT9hOMVH5d58_2P5GXAFMaHRpCvjM4ab_8GCCeKYJD6-rQ&oe=62E5CA43)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 03:35:07 PM

We're #1, We're #1!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 03:37:08 PM

maybe Biden could solve the emissions issue and the border issue by allowing Texas to secede

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 03:38:05 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 03:37:08 PM

maybe Biden could solve the emissions issue and the border issue by allowing Texas to secede

If it means he'll pay for a wall between Texas and Oklahoma, count me in!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 03:47:04 PM

Florida too please. Don't even need a wall at Georgia. Just a country band on the line.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 03:56:21 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 03:37:08 PM

maybe Biden could solve the emissions issue and the border issue by allowing Texas to secede

might as well 

we are going it alone anyway

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 04:17:13 PM

wait, can't do it.  Where would all the folks leaving Cali go?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 04:21:33 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 04:17:13 PM

wait, can't do it.  Where would all the folks leaving Cali go?

No problem all they would have to do is swear allegiance  to the sovereign Republic of Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 04:30:37 PM

well, that ain't gonna happen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 04:33:30 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 04:30:37 PM

well, that ain't gonna happen

(https://i.imgur.com/02og18c.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 04:45:07 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 04:30:37 PM

well, that ain't gonna happen

well then just turn around

your visa has expired

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 05:03:09 PM

no visas required, just wade across the Rio Grande

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 05:06:17 PM

Researchers at a U.S. government nuclear fusion laboratory say they have found a way to downsize the huge magnets that are necessary for controlling fusion plasma in what they think is another step toward creating a viable fusion reactor.

Nuclear fusion refers to the process of joining two atomic nuclei together to form one, heavier atom. However, the mass of the new heavier atom is slightly less than that of the two individual atoms, and this leftover mass is released as energy that can be harnessed to produce electricity.

Nuclear fusion happens naturally all the time in the cores of stars, such as our sun, where hydrogen atoms are fused together to form helium under enormous heat and pressure. While scientists have managed to recreate nuclear fusion artificially, the problem is sustaining a reaction for long enough to viably power an electric grid.

The other problem is that scientists have so far been unable to get a nuclear fusion reactor to produce more energy than it consumes, since recreating the intense heat needed for fusion to take place requires a lot of power.

Still, scientists and governments are chasing a working nuclear fusion reactor since it promises a clean, powerful, and virtually limitless source of energy. Small breakthroughs are bringing humanity incrementally closer to such a reactor, but one that breaks even with energy out versus energy in and can be used on a national grid is still thought to be at least a decade away.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nuclear-fusion-energy-edges-closer-with-super-magnets-for-smaller-tokamaks/ar-AAZZC0F?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6e2eea072f67425c92de2977c75d6b47 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nuclear-fusion-energy-edges-closer-with-super-magnets-for-smaller-tokamaks/ar-AAZZC0F?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6e2eea072f67425c92de2977c75d6b47)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 05:07:02 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 05:03:09 PM

no visas required, just wade across the Rio Grande

That would require Californians sullying themselves by traveling in Mexico.  Ain't gonna happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 05:08:42 PM

many Californians were born in Mexico and have traveled there previously

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 26, 2022, 05:10:22 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 05:07:02 PM

That would require Californians sullying themselves by traveling in Mexico.  Ain't gonna happen.

If they had to wade thru the lovely street villages in SF,pfft,that's a breeze

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 26, 2022, 05:10:56 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 05:08:42 PM

many Californians were born in Mexico and have traveled there previously

Or smoked/snorted something from there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 05:18:19 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 05:03:09 PM

no visas required, just wade across the Rio Grande

not when we are independent

them thar days have gone

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 05:21:36 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 05:08:42 PM

many Californians were born in Mexico and have traveled there previously

The Californians leaving the state for greener pastures aren't who you're talking about.

But all that joking aside, it's currently highly unsafe for Americans on the Mexican side of the Texas border, so even if they were willing to dirty up their birkenstocks in the river, it's likely they wouldn't live long enough to do so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2022, 11:40:37 AM

I got this special email from the NYT just now:

Extreme heat waves are expected on the Eastern Seaboard and in other parts of the country this week.

Included is a map with Atlanta in this region.  So, I look at the ten day, and the highs are forecast to be in the low 90s.  It's almost like it's July or something.  Heaven forbid the temperature should slip over 90°F.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 27, 2022, 11:45:02 AM

Same thing here.  We're forecast to be around 100-101 for the next 10 days.  That's normal highs for late July and early August.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2022, 11:48:01 AM

no activity hurricane wise so thats a good thing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2022, 11:50:23 AM

July Weather in Atlanta Georgia, United States. Daily high temperatures are around 88°F, rarely falling below 81°F or exceeding 95°F. The highest daily average high temperature is 89°F on July 23. Daily low temperatures are around 71°F, rarely falling below 66°F or exceeding 75°F.

So, with highs around 92°F, it is predicted to be a few degrees hotter than normal.  I see we're past the average hottest day.  I was out running earlier and am still sweating.

My watch says 84°F, it's cloudy, and humid, 63% RH.  I get this morning feed from the NYT, it's free.  It ranges from occasionally interesting to occasionally misleading and occasionally about a topic in which I have no interest.  Today I got the usual email and then this special heat wave alert email.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2022, 11:53:08 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 27, 2022, 11:48:01 AM

no activity hurricane wise so thats a good thing

What's Up with the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season? - Surfline

 (https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/whats-up-with-the-atlantic-hurricane-season/157390)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2022, 12:28:44 PM

Its amazing how many experts try to forecast how many named storms we will have every year and of those how many will be major and hit the US

might as well forecast how many times my cat will throw up 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2022, 12:36:52 PM

There is some level of predictability in hurricane frequency, it's not nearly perfect at this point, but it is interesting to make the effort.  Of course, I could "predict" 15 named storms each year and also be pretty close.

Tracking the Tropics: How accurate are hurricane season forecasts? | WFLA (https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/tracking-the-tropics-how-accurate-are-hurricane-season-forecasts/)

(https://i.imgur.com/QVnOxQy.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2022, 01:01:54 PM

why bother as you said I could just take a 20 year average and be as accurate

nobody really cares what these guys forecast

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2022, 01:10:32 PM

Not equally accurate

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2022, 01:53:34 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 27, 2022, 11:53:08 AM

What's Up with the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season? - Surfline

 (https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/whats-up-with-the-atlantic-hurricane-season/157390)

Lots of Saharan dust this year knocking them down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2022, 03:50:59 PM

‘Fossil-flation’ fuels the climate crisis and costs Americans money: Electrification is the answer | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3576518-fossil-flation-fuels-the-climate-crisis-and-costs-americans-money-electrification-is-the-answer/)

Another feller thinks we all should buy an EV ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2022, 04:10:31 PM

if he buys me one I'll give it a try

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2022, 08:37:11 AM

In a shocking development, Manchin struck a deal with Schumer after more than a year of hemming and hawing in talks over a number of proposals that had been unable to garner his backing.

Headlining the rejuvenated bill is $369 billion in funding for energy and climate programs over the next 10 years — with the goal of reducing emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030 — and an additional $300 billion to reduce the deficit. 

So, $37 billion a year solves this problem, thanks, we can forget about it being an issue now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2022, 09:17:20 AM

might as well round up to 40B if we're simply printing $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2022, 09:20:08 AM

Yes, it's rounding error on Federal spending, not even that really.  It's absurd to think this can possibly make much difference in gtons CO2 produced in the US.

It will make a little, no doubt, probably, maybe perhaps.  Or not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2022, 05:14:29 PM

A major Atlantic current is at a critical transition point | NOVA | PBS (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/amoc-shutdown-gulf-stream-climate/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1658930636&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0P8demIO7mCQTK5yVCdyanfdErXffdNM_2cL9kizwuAAMVNzIhGivNawk)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2022, 05:15:01 PM

oh NO!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2022, 05:26:04 PM

It would be cataclysmic IF it happened, really bad.  I thought the theory had died down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2022, 05:47:13 PM

So this won't be producing power in the very near future, due to radical drought.  Gonna be a very expensive paper weight.  I wonder if nearby cities care.
(https://i.imgur.com/06KjCH4.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2022, 05:55:56 PM

might care enough to move outta the desert

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2022, 06:59:37 AM

Deserts are not meant to support humans.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 29, 2022, 07:26:23 AM

Could this Atlantic current transition be the reason there has been few hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year in contrast to predictions by Climate alarmists this Spring?

OK, that was sarcasm.  The PBS article mentions that the AMOC current shut down at the start of the Younger Dryas glaciation period due to global temperature rise.  However, it did not discuss the cause of that global temperature rise.   It wasn't humans burning fossil fuels.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2022, 07:37:29 AM

Saharan dust has been a factor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on July 29, 2022, 08:38:03 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 28, 2022, 05:55:56 PM

might care enough to move outta the desert

Austin would be a nice destination

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2022, 08:53:54 AM

Austin is also the desert.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 08:56:29 AM

Atlanta is not in a desert, though there are droughts on occasion, I prefer draughts.

The climate Bill Manchin signed onto should completely eliminate this climate change problem which in itself might justify the $37 billion a year it says to spend on stuff.  If I'd known we could solve such a major calamity for a mere $37 bil a year I'd have signed on years ago.  No more climate marches and no more breathless interviews and blame of weather events on climate change.;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2022, 09:12:33 AM

Austin isn't really a desert of course.  But it definitely suffers long periods of drought.   Annual average rainfall in Austin is around 35", while it' around 47" in Atlanta, and 49" in Houston.

Phoenix gets 9" and Las Vegas is 4".  That's pretty bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 09:23:23 AM

Home to the Kohala Resort Area, the sunny Kohala Coast gets an average of just 10 inches of rainfall per year, making it the most popular part of the Island for vacationers! This area has the highest number of sunny days in the entire state of Hawaii!


This is where we stay in Hawaii in part because you're pretty well guaranteed to have excellent weather.  There is a lot of subterranean water that helps a lot.

The last time we were there however was an exception the last three days so we left a day early.  I had bought first class tickets and we got bumped down to main cabin, but then Delta refunded the price difference and gave us each a $200 flight credit.  I thought that was pretty reasonable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2022, 09:30:28 AM

Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2022, 09:12:33 AM

Austin isn't really a desert of course.  But it definitely suffers long periods of drought.  Annual average rainfall in Austin is around 35", while it' around 47" in Atlanta, and 49" in Houston.

Phoenix gets 9" and Las Vegas is 4".  That's pretty bad.

My area got 4" too.

YESTERDAY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 09:36:51 AM

I swim nearly daily, which is a good thing, I enjoy lying on my back doing backstroke and watching the cumulus clouds building up, they are quite impressive.  We have the pool to ourselves nearly every week day in the afternoon.  The water is quite warm now as it gets sunlight direct and reflected off the building.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 09:41:52 AM

Bill Gates' BEV backs air conditioning startup Blue Frontier (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/bill-gates-breakthrough-energy-ventures-backs-air-conditioning-startup.html)

I don't understand how this works continuously without a lot of power.

Needs an EE I think.

Our AC works off water which is cycled to an evaporator on the roof, which is how larger buildings do it, heat and cool.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 09:45:39 AM

The liquid desiccant that Blue Frontier uses can be stored inside the air conditioning machine in a small plastic tank, essentially storing the cooling capacity to be used when it’s most needed. That’s critical for a decarbonizing grid that will be increasingly dependent on renewables, like wind and solar, which are both intermittent sources of energy.

“The storage also allows us to consume the bulk of our energy when renewable energy is abundant and when electric grid congestion is low. We avoid consuming electricity during peak demand periods that are powered by fossil fuel peaking plants,” Betts told CNBC.



Ah, so they basically charge up the desssicant at night when demand is low, and then use that during the day.  It's akin to a battery.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2022, 09:52:36 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2022, 09:30:28 AM

My area got 4" too.

YESTERDAY

I haven't seen a drop of rain at my house since Memorial Day weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 10:04:15 AM

I'm not moving there

the golf courses must be in terrible shape

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 29, 2022, 10:07:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 10:04:15 AM

I'm not moving there

the golf courses must be in terrible shape

if golf courses in Texas depended on rainfall to be green no one would ever play golf here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 10:09:58 AM

Houston gets rain

Maybe I'll move there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 10:17:04 AM

I got dropped off at my rental car in Houston once and found the car locked, in a pouring rain, and the bus had driven off.  I was not amused.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 29, 2022, 10:29:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 10:09:58 AM

Houston gets rain

Maybe I'll move there

we are now 18 inches ytd under our average

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on July 29, 2022, 10:32:47 AM

what a weird world this is

https://www.foxnews.com/us/las-vegas-strip-iconic-casinos-impacted-flooding

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 10:33:06 AM

Climate change puts H-Town in the desert!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2022, 10:42:22 AM

Climate change?  Is that thing still around???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 10:43:54 AM

the climate has never not been changing

Sorry, I meant to say, "Global Warming"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 10:48:53 AM

Congress has it solved, so we can end this thread.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2022, 10:54:30 AM

Whew, thank goodness.

If there's anything Congress is good at, it's solving sophisticated problems!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 10:58:57 AM

by throwing our money at them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2022, 12:06:11 PM

Willful ignorance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 12:16:35 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2022, 12:06:11 PM

Willful ignorance.

What, in your mind, is ignorant here and what facts would allay that ignorance?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2022, 12:24:45 PM

The climate crisis almost destroyed my town — yours could be next | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3578366-the-climate-crisis-almost-destroyed-my-town-yours-could-be-next/)

The administration has a plan, and a smart one, to fight back against both the environmental and economic destruction caused by climate change. Not only is this plan data-driven and science-based, it’s also wildly popular. (https://news.gallup.com/poll/391679/climate-change-proposals-favored-solid-majorities.aspx) We have the information we need to combat this threat and we have the support of American citizens. Now, members of Congress must fulfill their duties and responsibilities to their voters and pass strong climate legislation. Our nation desperately needs a defensive charge against the catastrophic destruction of climate change and I urge Congress to pass legislation that does just that.

A smart plan to boot.  So, when it's passed, we can presume this problem has been solved for all time.  Great, for $37 billion a year over ten years, it was solved.  Thanks, Congress.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 12:28:55 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2022, 12:06:11 PM

Willful ignorance.

an over abundance of this in Congress

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2022, 12:36:03 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 12:28:55 PM

an over abundance of this in Congress

True, but I think the main reason they're shitty at their jobs of representing the people, is that they're all bought off by special interests.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2022, 12:58:04 PM

ya think?!?!?

they could be selfish sons a bitches that are corrupt???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 01:39:40 PM

President Biden’s offshore drilling plan will make or break climate and environmental justice promises | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3582598-president-bidens-offshore-drilling-plan-will-make-or-break-climate-and-environmental-justice-promises/)

There is no room for more fossil fuels if we want a livable future — if the Biden administration bows down to the fossil fuel industry, we have to rise up and push back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 02:01:30 PM

he's turned into a mini Trump!!!

building border walls and drilling for oil off shore

WTF???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 02:23:18 PM

These folks claiming more fossil fuels will kill us all need to get a grasp of reality in my view.  The hyperbole just looks silly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 02:31:20 PM

they need to do some research first and be able to back up their claims with something

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2022, 02:51:06 PM

everybody keeps pushing EVs and ignore the fact that the current energy sector could not support a large conversion to EVs

we better solve that issue before we drive everybody away from gasoline powered vehicles 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 02:56:54 PM

Folks can push EVs all they want, the transition is going to be pretty slow.  You can't buy something that isn't there to buy.  And I think the electricity production issue will get resolved in most areas.  A lot of the EV demand would be at night.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 03:05:59 PM

the grid will evolve with demand

just as it has forever

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2022, 03:27:11 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 03:05:59 PM

the grid will evolve with demand

just as it has forever

yes and while its evolving which energy source will be used the most

wind?
solar?
natural gas?
nuclear?
oil?
coal?

right now Biden is doing everything possible to kill oil so which other energy source will be able to accomplish this "ramping up"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 03:40:30 PM

he's thinkin about loosenin up on offshore drilling

oil isn't dying because of Biden

IMO, he should be killin coal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 03:48:13 PM

We use very little oil to generate electricity.  We use a lot of NG though, which can be conflated.

The EIA shows solar making a large increment by 2050, NG will still be around.  I think I read solar doesn't do much at night though.

With some thought, we could replace coal with nuclear, but that would require actual thought.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 03:58:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 03:48:13 PM

The EIA shows solar making a large increment by 2050, NG will still be around.  I think I read solar doesn't do much at night though.

think storage to be used at night and also think that less electricity is used at night

Solar could be the thing with a breakthrough or 3

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 04:02:29 PM

There is a lot less demand at night, and solar would need some sort of storage to help.

Pumped water is one interesting option.  One article I read calculated the increase in demand from EVs will be similar to that caused by residential AC back in the day, fairly gradual and manageable.  Even if we see 100% of new vehicles being EVs in 2035, it's doing to take a while to put a dent in the fleet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 01, 2022, 04:11:47 PM

People have been waiting for 7 or 8 decades for a breakthrough in electrical storage.  There have been some interesting advances but compared to the types of titanic shifts we've seen in say... semiconductors... we're still basically at the point of sticking a couple of dissimilar metals into a potato and calling it a day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 04:18:04 PM

I sat through a battery seminar a long while back.  The fellow showed some calculations about how much chemical energy could be stuffed into a small package that was impressive, it wasn't much before you run into some obvious problems.  Those electron thingees at some point can "achieve their potential" and jump through even very good insulators.

It was shocking and I was pretty amped up about it.  Some of my coworkers resisted understanding the basic problem though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 04:19:32 PM

Carters Dam - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carters_Dam)

Below the dam is a 1,000-acre (400 ha) retention and re-regulation lake (Reregulation Reservoir). The hydroelectric plant is of the pumped storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped_storage) type. That is, during off-peak hours (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Off-peak_hours&action=edit&redlink=1) the water from the retention lake is pumped back up to Carters Lake for use in generating power during the next time of peak demand (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_demand). The dam's power station contains 2 × 140 megawatts (190,000 hp) Francis turbines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_turbine) and 2 × 160 MW Modified Francis pump turbines for used in pumped-storage.^{[3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carters_Dam#cite_note-3)}

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 01, 2022, 04:22:53 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 01, 2022, 04:19:32 PM

Carters Dam - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carters_Dam)

Below the dam is a 1,000-acre (400 ha) retention and re-regulation lake (Reregulation Reservoir). The hydroelectric plant is of the pumped storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped_storage) type. That is, during off-peak hours (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Off-peak_hours&action=edit&redlink=1) the water from the retention lake is pumped back up to Carters Lake for use in generating power during the next time of peak demand (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_demand). The dam's power station contains 2 × 140 megawatts (190,000 hp) Francis turbines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_turbine) and 2 × 160 MW Modified Francis pump turbines for used in pumped-storage.^{[3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carters_Dam#cite_note-3)}

Yeah I like this, very clever.  Obviously would work better in some regional locations than others, but the first time I heard of it back when, I was struck by how innovative it was.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 04:33:28 PM

I'm thinking more of a breakthrough in solar efficiency 

I'm guessing storage options are available today

some suggestions are that solar can be generated at night

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 01, 2022, 07:11:53 PM

Ya by the the Squatch's riding their bike's that nobody sees in the day.But they're out there - watch the Discovery Channel

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 07:25:25 AM

The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (I). The search for a solar signal | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/07/31/the-sun-climate-effect-the-winter-gatekeeper-hypothesis-i-the-search-for-a-solar-signal/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 07:37:52 AM

Coal consumption is expected to return to 2013′s record levels: IEA (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/coal-consumption-is-expected-to-return-to-2013s-record-levels-iea.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 07:38:37 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 01, 2022, 04:33:28 PM

some suggestions are that solar can be generated at night

You can't generate power where there is no power present (or very very little).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2022, 09:07:37 AM

Solar Panels That Work at Night Developed at Stanford

"The coldness of outer space is also an extremely important renewable energy resource," a researcher says.

https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/solar-panels-that-work-at-night-developed-at-stanford/ (https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/solar-panels-that-work-at-night-developed-at-stanford/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 09:20:15 AM

Technically speaking, the modified solar panels don't generate solar electricity at night. Instead of exploiting sunlight (or starlight or moonlight, which still doesn't work), the researchers added technology that exploits radiative cooling.

They don't generate meaningful amounts of power.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2022, 09:21:45 AM

perhaps your definition of meaningful

those at Stanford might have a different opinion
;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 09:22:41 AM

While the modified panels generate a tiny amount of energy compared with what a modern solar panel does during the day, that energy could still be useful, especially at night when energy demand is much lower, the researchers said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2022, 09:23:36 AM

that energy could still be useful

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 09:24:16 AM

If it could be done at next to no cost with no deficiencies in normal power generation, fine.  I think it's a gimmick.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2022, 09:27:09 AM

a gimmick today could have a major technical breakthrough and be a something someday

:::crosses fingers:::

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 09:32:13 AM

In this case, I'd bet not, majorly.

I'd put a bet down on better energy storage likely not of the electrochemical nature, maybe molten salt technology.

The Small Modular Reactors are interesting, hard to get a read on real practicability though.  Everything reads like a sales brochure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2022, 02:28:15 PM

Waves of extreme heat traverse the US this week - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/weather/heat-midwest-northeast-kentucky/index.html)

It's almost like it's August or something.  Our highs here are right at 90°F, I realize the midsection is hotter, but the weather maps have us listed as DANGER!!!.

I'd call it "NORMAL".  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2022, 02:42:05 PM

Same here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 02, 2022, 03:19:20 PM

just need rain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2022, 03:28:29 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 02, 2022, 03:19:20 PM

just need rain

No measurable rainfall at my house since the Thursday before Memorial Day weekend.  That's 67 days and counting...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2022, 03:57:51 PM

58 days for Colleyville

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2022, 03:59:12 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/4olt7ep.png)

Humidity 41%

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2022, 03:54:44 PM

If I'm reading this properly,  the legislation if passed, is projected to reduce CO2 emissions by a bit less than a gigaton per year.  That's nice of course, but kind of a drop in the bucket.  China dumps 11.5 gigatons per year by itself, and that figure is increasing.  

The carbon budget explained: how much CO2 can we emit and still save the climate? - LifeGate (https://www.lifegate.com/carbon-budget)

Scientists have made different calculations to work out how much of the carbon budget humanity still has at its disposal. A think tank called MCC, using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), stated that at the end of 2017 we had a budget of no more than 420 gigatonnes of CO2 if we want to stay within 1.5 degrees of warming, that is 42 gigatonnes per year (or 1.332 tonnes per second).

The problem, however, is that in 2019, before the paralysis caused by coronavirus, global emissions reached 52.4 gigatonnes. This was revealed by the United Nations’ Emissions Gap Report (https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020). In fact, if we also account for emissions related to changes in land use (deforestation (http://lifegate.com/tag/deforestation) above all), the figure rises to 59.1. At this rate, we will have burned through our remaining carbon budget by the end of 2027 for the 1.5-degree scenario, and by 2045 for the 2-degree scenario. The MCC published a countdown to these dates: the Carbon Clock (https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/co2-budget.html).





(https://i.imgur.com/tAc1NcL.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 06, 2022, 04:14:07 PM

what legislation is that CD

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2022, 04:28:08 AM

Harris breaks 50-50 deadlock to advance landmark climate, tax, health bill | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3591216-harris-breaks-50-50-deadlock-to-advance-landmark-climate-tax-health-bill/)

For only $37 billion a year, they "solved" the climate problem.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2022, 06:18:00 AM

I'll never understand how one side of the political spectrum poo-poos this problem so hard  First, you denied (deny still?) that it's a problem at all, then bitch about it when trying to combat it isn't free.  

If freedom isn't free, neither is reversing the 150 years of pumping extra CO2 into the air at a rate so high that it would naturally take thousands of years to pump as much into the atmosphere.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2022, 06:21:13 AM

If only we could extract electrical power from bullshit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2022, 06:33:43 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2022, 06:18:00 AM

I'll never understand how one side of the political spectrum poo-poos this problem so hard  First, you denied (deny still?) that it's a problem at all, then bitch about it when trying to combat it isn't free. 

As this comes directly after my post, I'll note (again) that I specifically do NOT deny climate change is serious and mandmade.  I do note the obvious fact that these "bills" to spend $37 billion a year on subsidies and whatnot are woefully inadequate, if the models are more or less correct.    WOEFULLY.

This is political pandering, not a real serious solution or even an approach to one.  But the pandering obviously works for some.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2022, 06:48:57 AM

It's easy to make commitments:

US pledges to dramatically slash greenhouse emissions over next decade (nature.com) (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01071-2)

Yay, a pledge.

It's even possible to pass some legislation that does "something", like this bill in Congress, yay, it does something.

It's much much much harder to see any realistic path in the future to doing anything of real consequence about this.  It's just not going to happen, there is no realistic practicable solution here.

At the Paris climate meeting in 2015, governments committed to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, in an effort to prevent a cascade of potential catastrophic impacts, including increases in extreme weather, the destruction of natural ecosystems and damages to agricultural systems.

Although many governments have begun to bend the emissions curve downwards by adopting climate policies that advance clean-energy development, international commitments have fallen well short of that 2015 goal: on the basis of current policies, the world is currently on track for around a 3 °C rise, according to Climate Action Tracker, an international consortium of scientists and policy specialists that monitors efforts to implement the Paris accord.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2022, 08:13:58 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2022, 06:18:00 AM

I'll never understand how one side of the political spectrum poo-poos this problem so hard  First, you denied (deny still?) that it's a problem at all, then bitch about it when trying to combat it isn't free. 

If freedom isn't free, neither is reversing the 150 years of pumping extra CO2 into the air at a rate so high that it would naturally take thousands of years to pump as much into the atmosphere. 

Obviously with this comment you are clearly of the mindset that climate is a problem. 

Are you sure about this, and if so, what makes you so sure of this?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2022, 08:27:23 AM

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts (noaa.gov) (https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr)


Climate Change: Global Sea Level | NOAA Climate.gov (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2022, 11:51:08 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/CxSS5kf.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2022, 12:02:19 PM

bummer Dude

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2022, 12:03:08 PM

It'll be nice here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2022, 12:17:38 PM

I'm going to make a trip or two to Texas

chilly there is golf shorts weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: WhiskeyM on August 07, 2022, 12:43:33 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2022, 12:03:08 PM

It'll be nice here.

You are getting close to the time of year where everyone remembers why they moved to Florida.  This summer was brutal.

November through March is absolutely perfect weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2022, 12:46:30 PM

We're pretty acclimated now. Sure, it's hot, and humid. That's why we have a pool. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2022, 12:51:30 PM

Just back from our walk, when we started it was quite pleasant, gentle breeze, etc., about the last mile was sweaty.  We'll go to the pool in a bit, not a single person was in it, a handful were sitting at a table, but someone has six floating inner tube type things in the pool.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2022, 01:00:39 PM

96 degrees and very humid here yesterday

18 holes of golf was miserable, then a birthday party w/o air conditioning

today is much better - 83 overcast and a slight breeze

golf will be much more pleasant

FORE!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2022, 10:04:42 AM

We're not going to see high temps below 90 for another month, it looks like.

Also looks like there is some development in the tropics. Hopefully it stays as mild as it has thus far. Only one named storm, and it fizzled as soon as it got named.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 08, 2022, 10:15:46 AM

Yeah it's been a little TOO quiet in the tropics so far this summer.  Here's hoping it stays that way.

I wonder if there's any correlation between hurricanes in the Atlantic, and the el nino/la nina weather patterns?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2022, 10:20:23 AM

Probably so - I haven't gotten into it all that much.

When I retire, I'll be taking meteorology coursework to learn more. Maybe even get an MS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on August 08, 2022, 11:20:31 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 08, 2022, 10:15:46 AM

Yeah it's been a little TOO quiet in the tropics so far this summer.  Here's hoping it stays that way.

I wonder if there's any correlation between hurricanes in the Atlantic, and the el nino/la nina weather patterns?

El Nino squashes tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. La Nina often correlates with busy seasons. Also, even though it's been really quiet so far in the Atlantic, a full season can be packed into the 6 weeks starting on August 20. None of the past busy seasons cranked up before mid-August. HurricaneTrack is a good channel to follow on YouTube, he's a longtime hurricane chaser from North Carolina, and he does a very nice job with videos.

https://youtu.be/JihgYc4T0O8

Also, this is on track to be one of the top 5 hottest summers ever in MSP. There have been 17 days and counting above 90 here. Average to date is 9, total yearly average is 14, and there have been lots of hot Augusts and Septembers here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2022, 11:31:26 AM

Summer here has been very normal, probably a bit more rain, but it usually comes in a 30 minute dash and then clears.  I'm just back from running, there was a decent breeze.  Forecast highs in the 80s, only 81°F on THU but we'll be in sunny California Tue-Sun soaking some rays, drinking some wine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2022, 12:42:11 PM

This is the only thing out there right now, and it's not being given a great chance to organize.

GR is right though. We are approaching the teeth of the season - right about now through mid-October. Two months of keeping our eyes open.

(https://i.imgur.com/2XoTC4m.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2022, 12:51:57 PM

A thing I would have expected with warmer water temps is an earlier more active season.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2022, 01:44:53 PM

Saharan dust has been very active this year. It really knocks down those storms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2022, 02:14:12 PM

Weather Underground (wunderground.com) (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/articles/saharan-dust-explainer)

Saharan dust can affect hurricane activity in several ways:

• Dust acts as a shield which keeps sunlight from reaching the surface. Thus, large amounts of dust can keep the sea surface temperatures up to 1°C cooler than average in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean, providing hurricanes with less energy to form and grow.
• The Saharan Air Layer (http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2FBAMS-85-3-353) (SAL) is a layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic. At the boundary between the SAL and low-level moist air where the trade winds blow is the trade wind inversion--a region of the atmosphere where the temperature increases with height. Since atmospheric temperature normally decreases with height, this "inversion" acts to but the brakes on any thunderstorms that try to punch through it. This happens because the air in a thunderstorm's updraft suddenly encounters a region where the updraft air is cooler and less buoyant than the surrounding air, and thus will not be able to keep moving upward. The dust in the SAL absorbs solar radiation, which heats the air in the trade wind inversion. This makes the inversion stronger, which inhibits the thunderstorms that power a hurricane.
• Dust may also act to produce more clouds, but this effect needs much more study. If the dust particles are of the right size to serve as "condensation nuclei"--centers around which raindrops can form and grow--the dust can act to make more clouds. Thus, dust could potentially aid in the formation and intensification of hurricanes. However, if the dust acts to make more low-level clouds over the tropical Atlantic, this will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean, cooling the sea surface temperatures and discouraging hurricane formation (Kaufman et al., 2005.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2022, 02:16:06 PM

Saharan dust continues to hamper hurricane, tropical storm development in Atlantic as August begins (foxweather.com) (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/saharan-dust-atlantic-hurricane-tropical-storm-development-august)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2022, 03:06:38 PM

Let's go dust!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2022, 03:18:03 PM

It makes sense of course, but when doing hurricane predictions, as they attempt each year, it seems the dust prediction part has to be involved, if one can predict dust.

I presume it relates to westerly winds over the Sahara (duh) which peak in some years, or not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: GopherRock on August 08, 2022, 03:43:38 PM

Sahara dust kept a hard lid on the 2017 season early on. Then it backed off and Irma, Jose, and Maria blasted their way across the northeast Caribbean. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2022, 03:50:32 PM

Irma hit pretty hard here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2022, 04:59:25 PM

So, one could expect the season to pick up soonish, right?  The dust abates and the storms awaits?

Sorry.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2022, 05:05:37 PM

Not worried. 

I put in a generator for the whole house. 

847's Law states that we will never again have a hurricane hit here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2022, 05:09:33 PM

Yeah, me and a neighbor bought a snow blower many years back and decided it was a great expense as we had almost no snow that year.  I think the effect wears down over time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2022, 08:33:04 AM

Tucked deep in the millions of words that make up the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 are incentives for the production of sustainable aviation fuel. The much-vaunted economic and climate action bill was passed by the Senate on Sunday and the $1.25-$1.75 in credits (depending on how green they are in terms of inputs and process) should make it more attractive for producers to get the fuel to market. Whether the credits will be reflected at the pumps isn’t clear, but the National Air Transport Association applauded passage of legislation.

NATA CEO Tim Obitts said the tax credits are “a crucial first step toward meeting the Biden Administration’s SAF Grand Challenge goal of three billion gallons of domestically produced SAF by 2030.” He said the next step is to tackle the regulatory and bureaucratic roadblocks impeding the industry. “We encourage Congress to work just as diligently to equip federal agencies, including EPA, with the necessary tools to support SAF production in line with industry demand,” Obitts said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2022, 08:36:12 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 09, 2022, 08:33:04 AM

Tucked deep in the millions of words that make up the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 are incentives for the production of sustainable aviation fuel. The much-vaunted economic and climate action bill was passed by the Senate on Sunday and the $1.25-$1.75 in credits (depending on how green they are in terms of inputs and process) should make it more attractive for producers to get the fuel to market. Whether the credits will be reflected at the pumps isn’t clear, but the National Air Transport Association applauded passage of legislation.

NATA CEO Tim Obitts said the tax credits are “a crucial first step toward meeting the Biden Administration’s SAF Grand Challenge goal of three billion gallons of domestically produced SAF by 2030.” He said the next step is to tackle the regulatory and bureaucratic roadblocks impeding the industry. “We encourage Congress to work just as diligently to equip federal agencies, including EPA, with the necessary tools to support SAF production in line with industry demand,” Obitts said.

Good luck there, Skippy. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2022, 09:27:20 AM

It's known technology of course to make bioDiesel from spent cooking oil, fine.  I'm not sure there is enough cooking oil around to fuel aircraft for very long.

Jets burn Kerosene, which is somewhat the same as Diesel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2022, 09:37:58 AM

I'm guessing there's plenty of cooking oil

contract with McDonalds, Burger Thing, Chick fil A, Taco Bell, and KFC

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2022, 09:52:11 AM

Sure, they do that, and of course collecting it takes energy and time.  But jets burn a lot of fuel.  Hundreds of thousands of pounds on many flights.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2022, 09:55:43 AM

heck, they have those grease pits at the airports and since most airports are near large cities....

be interesting to know how many gallons/pounds of jet fuel are pumped at the Atlanta airport vs how many gallons of cooking oil is used in Atlanta

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2022, 10:01:40 AM

• U.S. consumption of edible oils by type, 2021 | Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/301044/edible-oils-consumption-united-states-by-type/)

• United States Oil Consumption was reported at 17,177.648 Barrel/Day th in Dec 2020
• This records a decrease from the previous number of 19,475.375 Barrel/Day th for Dec 2019
• US Oil Consumption data is updated yearly, averaging 17,609.969 Barrel/Day th from Dec 1965 to 2020, with 56 observations
• The data reached an all-time high of 20,531.482 Barrel/Day th in 2005 and a record low of 11,512.436 Barrel/Day th in 1965

EIA estimates that as of August 16, 2020, consumption of jet fuel by U.S. commercial passenger flights was approximately 612,000 barrels per day (b/d), 43% of the estimated amount consumed on the same date one year earlier.


If the cooking oil barrels are the same unit as below, and if we adjust up from the 612,000 to about a million normally, we have plenty of cooking oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2022, 10:26:29 AM

not everyone flies everyday

most folks eat fast food everyday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2022, 10:51:24 AM

I was on a 767 to LA years back and the captain announced their take off weight and landing weight, the former was mostly fuel.

200,000 pounds of it, or thereabouts.

My little plane burned about 24 pounds per hour.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2022, 11:01:24 AM

Need to make more corn oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2022, 11:06:31 AM

Apparently, a cooking oil barrel is 55 gallons (crude oil barrels are 42).  So 20 million barrels of Wesson means over a billion gallons per day.  That's 3 gallons per person?

My math may be wrong here.  Anyway, looks like there is plenty of used cooking oil around to make Biokerosene.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2022, 07:10:25 PM

hopefully a majority comes from Iowa corn

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2022, 09:03:46 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 09, 2022, 07:10:25 PM

hopefully a majority comes from Iowa corn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMu8FmPHVCk

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2022, 07:28:43 AM

the headline :::

‘We’re back, baby’: New bill boosts US climate credibility

WASHINGTON (AP) — After a moment when hopes dimmed that the United States could become an international leader on climate change, legislation that Congress is poised to approve could rejuvenate the country’s reputation and bolster its efforts to push other nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions more quickly.

The head-snapping turn of events, which has generated a joyful case of whiplash among Democrats and environmentalists, is a reminder of how domestic politics is intertwined with worldwide diplomacy.

Advocates feared that last month’s breakdown in negotiations in Congress had undermined efforts to limit the catastrophic effects of global warming. Now they’re energized by the opportunity to tout an unprecedented U.S. success.

“This says, ‘We’re back, baby,’” said Jennifer Turner, who works on international climate issues as director of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum in Washington.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2022, 07:44:06 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Gul6REO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2022, 07:43:36 PM

what in hell is that wet stuff coming down

its actually raining

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2022, 08:48:55 PM

Not here it ain't

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2022, 08:59:05 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 10, 2022, 08:48:55 PM

Not here it ain't

youre not one of the chosen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 10, 2022, 09:26:28 PM

I saw about 25 Ford F350s today 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2022, 10:32:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 10, 2022, 09:26:28 PM

I saw about 25 Ford F350s today

way to bring us back on topic CD

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 10:00:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 10, 2022, 09:26:28 PM

I saw about 25 Ford F350s today

In California? Electric F350's?


;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 10:00:12 AM

Peak of Atlantic hurricane season begins in August (foxweather.com) (https://www.foxweather.com/learn/august-september-october-hurricane-season-peak?cmpid=fn_article_rr_weather_outbrain&dicbo=v1-c63027405c74132831db902aeb564d9c-00e17b74303517cbe6bf08cea931e9f870-gqywgodgga3wcllbmu2toljumm4doljzmizgmljumi2ggojrmq2dcmtbha)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2022, 10:03:52 AM

Man, I live in a country bumpkin suburb of Austin, Texas, and even I don't see 25 350/3500s in a day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 10:15:18 AM

Seems like everyone has a pickup here, and I haven't seen 25 F350's in the entire time I've lived here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2022, 10:19:01 AM

Lots and lots of 150/1500s and a decent amount of 250/2500s, but I only see 350s out there towing the really heavy stuff, like giant 5th wheel campers and such.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 11, 2022, 12:20:25 PM

I drive an F-250. Most of my neighbors drive 250/2500's or 350/3500's with a few 450's here and there. But I live in a rural area where most of my neighbors are farmers and need trucks with pulling power. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2022, 12:29:22 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 11, 2022, 12:20:25 PM

I drive an F-250. Most of my neighbors drive 250/2500's or 350/3500's with a few 450's here and there. But I live in a rural area where most of my neighbors are farmers and need trucks with pulling power.

Do you see 25 350s in a day?

Cause the thing about rural living, is that it's... well... rural. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2022, 06:48:12 PM

I see at least 50 a day, but I'm driving 3500 miles a month in rural areas

I saw well over 1000 Harleys yesterday on I-90 between Rapid City and Sioux Falls

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2022, 09:38:26 PM

This New Supersonic Jet Will Fly From London to NYC in 3.5 Hours—on 100% Biofuel

But the Boom Overture is not Concorde 2.0. It'll be faster, quieter and more fuel efficient, with a larger interior space.

https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/boom-overture-supersonic-jet-1234737630/ (https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/boom-overture-supersonic-jet-1234737630/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 12, 2022, 07:54:09 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2022, 12:29:22 PM

Do you see 25 350s in a day?

Cause the thing about rural living, is that it's... well... rural. ;)

Being as I work at home, I don't see much of anything unless they pull in my driveway. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2022, 08:00:39 AM

The one in the Atlantic fizzled out and now this one. Little chance anything comes of it.

(https://i.imgur.com/7ehOFu9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2022, 09:09:25 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 11, 2022, 09:38:26 PM

This New Supersonic Jet Will Fly From London to NYC in 3.5 Hours—on 100% Biofuel

But the Boom Overture is not Concorde 2.0. It'll be faster, quieter and more fuel efficient, with a larger interior space.

https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/boom-overture-supersonic-jet-1234737630/ (https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/boom-overture-supersonic-jet-1234737630/)

This thing looks so cool!   I never flew on it and would never have had the means to fly on it, but for some reason I miss the Concorde.  Just knowing technology had advanced to the point of supersonic passenger air travel, and the fame and celebrity of the folks who flew trans-Atlantic on that thing, was really cool.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2022, 08:30:51 AM

FEMA: Coastal Flood Risks

This homepage houses all resources and mapping information related to coastal flood risks and mapping for all stakeholder groups in coastal communities nationwide. Historically, cities, towns and villages are settled around ports along the nation's coastlines, providing individuals and families opportunities for trade, jobs and transportation, recreation and relaxation. These areas are extremely important to our nation, with great economic, historic and cultural significance.

https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps (https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2022, 08:39:50 AM

Heh. I use that website almost daily.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2022, 11:55:34 AM

Climate for Me

Browse and compare climates of locations all over the world. Search locations or pick them from the map. Use charts and tables to check temperature.

https://climateforme.com/ (https://climateforme.com/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2022, 08:09:25 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are less concerned now about how climate change might impact them personally — and about how their personal choices affect the climate — than they were three years ago, a new poll shows, even as a wide majority still believe climate change is happening.

The June Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, which was conducted before Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act on Friday, shows majorities of U.S. adults think the government and corporations have a significant responsibility to address climate change. The new law will invest nearly $375 billion in climate strategies over the next decade.

Overall, 35% of U.S. adults say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the impact of climate change on them personally, down from 44% in August 2019. Another third say they are somewhat concerned. Only about half say their actions have an effect on climate change, compared with two-thirds in 2019.


Black and Hispanic Americans, women and Democrats are especially likely to be strongly concerned about the impact of climate change on them personally and about how their personal choices affect the climate.

Many climate scientists told The Associated Press that the shifts are concerning but not surprising given that individuals are feeling overwhelmed by a range of issues, now including an economy plagued by inflation after more than two years of a pandemic. In addition to being outpaced by other issues, climate change or the environment are mentioned as priorities by fewer Americans now than just a few years ago, according to the poll.


Roughly two-thirds of Americans say the U.S. federal government, developed countries abroad and corporations and industries have a large responsibility to address climate change. Fewer — 45% — say that of individual people.

The poll of 1,053 adults was conducted June 23-27 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 15, 2022, 09:25:19 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2022, 12:29:22 PM

Do you see 25 350s in a day?

Cause the thing about rural living, is that it's... well... rural. ;)

Hell, I own 2 myself.  A F-550 for my water well business and my son drivers an older F350 SRW ( non-dually).  I also have an F-250 gasser.  And I just sold an F-350 for another water well truck a month ago.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 15, 2022, 09:31:01 AM

Right.  As I was saying... :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 15, 2022, 09:47:03 AM

To answer your question I probably do see 25+ F350's a day easily.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 15, 2022, 10:23:40 AM

Quote from: Gigem on August 15, 2022, 09:47:03 AM

To answer your question I probably do see 25+ F350's a day easily. 

(https://i.imgur.com/yRgMsU9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2022, 02:39:04 PM

The Most and Least Humid Cities in the U.S. (2022) (housemethod.com) (https://housemethod.com/moving/most-and-least-humid-cities/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2022, 03:17:21 PM

I dont care what the humidity is when it gets so hot the planes cant even take off like what happens in Phoenix every year Id rather live in Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 15, 2022, 06:57:03 PM

I’d love to move somewhere with lower humidity. Houston didn’t make the top ten with 89%, but I live further towards the coast. I can’t imagine a climate with more heat and humidity than here. I’d easy trade 10 degrees of summer heat for 10 degrees of winter cold. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2022, 07:30:01 PM

Quote from: Gigem on August 15, 2022, 06:57:03 PM

I’d love to move somewhere with lower humidity. Houston didn’t make the top ten with 89%, but I live further towards the coast. I can’t imagine a climate with more heat and humidity than here. I’d easy trade 10 degrees of summer heat for 10 degrees of winter cold.

actually the coast runs 5 to 10 degrees cooler then places like Houston of course the humidity is higher

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2022, 09:52:00 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2022, 02:39:04 PM

The Most and Least Humid Cities in the U.S. (2022) (housemethod.com) (https://housemethod.com/moving/most-and-least-humid-cities/)

Yeah, most of those are at least near the coast.  That's why Gainesville is so rough - 90 min from either coast, and 7th on that list.  "The Swamp" isn't just awesome, it's accurate.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2022, 10:18:54 PM

Quote from: Gigem on August 15, 2022, 06:57:03 PM

I’d love to move somewhere with lower humidity. Houston didn’t make the top ten with 89%, but I live further towards the coast. I can’t imagine a climate with more heat and humidity than here. I’d easy trade 10 degrees of summer heat for 10 degrees of winter cold.

how about 70 degrees of winter cold, cowboy?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2022, 09:39:29 AM

About to get into the teeth of this season.

(https://i.imgur.com/n1qEtQ4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2022, 09:59:56 AM

yep the real fun is late August and September

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 16, 2022, 12:27:23 PM

Where do you live 320?  I'm in southern Brazoria County, about 12 miles from the coast.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2022, 12:34:32 PM

Quote from: Gigem on August 16, 2022, 12:27:23 PM

Where do you live 320?  I'm in southern Brazoria County, about 12 miles from the coast. 

Northwest Houston near Jones and FM 1960

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2022, 12:37:16 PM

Youre near Lake Jackson

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 16, 2022, 02:05:58 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 16, 2022, 12:37:16 PM

Youre near Lake Jackson

Work in LJ, live in Brazoria.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2022, 09:54:15 AM

I'm headed out to the lake today, and our plans might get scuttled because of... RAIN?   Could it be so?

It finally rained at my house last Friday, for the first time in 77 days.  And now we might get rain AGAIN?  


What an embarrassment of riches!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2022, 09:56:11 AM

We've had an unusually rainy summer here.  One area gets drought and ...

The good thing is the rain usually lasts 30 minutes or so and leaves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 21, 2022, 11:12:27 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 21, 2022, 09:54:15 AM

I'm headed out to the lake today, and our plans might get scuttled because of... RAIN?  Could it be so?

It finally rained at my house last Friday, for the first time in 77 days.  And now we might get rain AGAIN? 


What an embarrassment of riches!

Took our boat out this AM for a little fishing. Called it off about 9 am, too windy and rainy and the fishing wasn’t good. 

what kind of sled do you run these days Marcus ?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 12:25:27 PM

up here in the great white north, this is called a sled..........

(https://fh-sites.imgix.net/sites/5079/2021/10/16183607/Private-Yellowstone-Snowmobile-Tours-%E2%80%A2-Grand-Canyon-image-1.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&w=700&h=700&fit=max)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 21, 2022, 01:33:12 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 21, 2022, 09:54:15 AM

I'm headed out to the lake today, and our plans might get scuttled because of... RAIN?  Could it be so?

It finally rained at my house last Friday, for the first time in 77 days.  And now we might get rain AGAIN? 


What an embarrassment of riches!

Sell your services to Corporate AGGIES

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2022, 03:58:20 PM

Hurricane season on the verge of rarely seen August without a named storm (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-season-on-the-verge-of-rarely-seen-august-without-a-named-storm/ar-AA110eHu?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8e37598f49b14b96b520707cab0cd553)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2022, 04:06:28 PM

the insurance companies are behind this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2022, 04:47:27 PM

Quote from: Gigem on August 21, 2022, 11:12:27 AM

Took our boat out this AM for a little fishing. Called it off about 9 am, too windy and rainy and the fishing wasn’t good.

what kind of sled do you run these days Marcus ? 

Sorry just saw this.  We're now the proud part-owners of a Mastercraft X45 wakeboarding/wakesurfing boat.  It's huge, plenty big enough for the kids and lots of friends.  And it throws a really great wake for wakeboarding and surfing.

Terrible wake for actual skiing though.  I need to find a friend with an 80s Correctcraft or something.

Luckily the rain held off and we got about 5 great hours on the water, before coming back in town for my folks' annual Hatch green chile rellenos.  Man those were tasty!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 01:21:32 PM

New climate law has bipartisan roots — we need leadership from both parties to realize its potential | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3618019-new-climate-law-has-bipartisan-roots-we-need-leadership-from-both-parties-to-realize-its-potential/)


I have looked for how many degrees C this new climate (etc.) bill will reduce warming long term.  I can't find an estimate.  It should be pretty easy to contrive.  I asked the MIT Climate Group to produce one, but they never responded.

I suspect I know why.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2022, 08:28:49 AM

The one in orange has an 80% chance of forming into the next storm over the next 5 days, which would be Danielle.

(https://i.imgur.com/zAI6py2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 08:51:49 AM

https://www.wsfa.com/2022/08/26/least-active-start-atlantic-hurricane-season-30-years/#:~:text=2022%20is%20now%20officially%20the,down%20as%20a%20record-holder.&text=One%20way%20to%20measure%20how,something%20called%20accumulated%20cyclone%20energy.

A typical hurricane season features about 122 ACE. That number comes from averaging the amount of ACE that occurred each year from 1991 to 2020. By August 26th the average Atlantic hurricane season generates 26.7 ACE. This year through August 26th? A measly 2.9 ACE.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 29, 2022, 08:54:51 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 01:21:32 PM

New climate law has bipartisan roots — we need leadership from both parties to realize its potential | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3618019-new-climate-law-has-bipartisan-roots-we-need-leadership-from-both-parties-to-realize-its-potential/)


I have looked for how many degrees C this new climate (etc.) bill will reduce warming long term.  I can't find an estimate.  It should be pretty easy to contrive.  I asked the MIT Climate Group to produce one, but they never responded.

I suspect I know why.

Is it because the answer is none?  Because until the rest of the world (China) gets serious about it we're only spinning our wheels.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 08:58:17 AM

I don't think the answer is exactly none, but it would be tiny, unmeasurable, maybe a tenth of a degree, maybe, probably less than that versus no bill.

It should be readily calculable using a standard model.  The Bill will cause a drop in CO2 production of X gigatons and that means 0.03°C less warming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 09:01:33 AM

The IRA is predicted to reduce emissions by 40%. It’s not that simple. - The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/18/ira-inflation-reduction-act-climate-change/)

Depending on how you read that 40 percent estimate, it could be a bit misleading. This is a case of where the models may be correct, but not widely appreciated. The bill is expected to cut emissions by 40 percent compared with 2005 levels — not compared to current U.S. emissions. That’s because emissions have already decreased substantially since 2005. Between 2005 and 2020, CO2 emissions dropped by about 21 percent (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks), thanks largely to a shift from heavily polluting coal to less-polluting natural gas. (The COVID-19 pandemic also caused a dramatic decline in emissions, as millions of cars and planes ground to a halt virtually overnight.)

Over the next eight years, emissions are expected to continue to trend slowly downward, thanks to cheap solar and wind power and a gradual shift to electric vehicles.
Indeed, according to the same three modeling groups, by 2030, emissions are expected to decline by 24 to 32 percent — even without the Inflation Reduction Act.
That doesn’t mean that the bill is without impact, of course. While it might not be as dramatic a shift as it seems initially, in a world in which every extra ton of CO2 not emitted into the atmosphere can help can help curb global warming, an additional 10 to 15 percent reduction in emissions will help to avert serious environmental damage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 29, 2022, 09:09:54 AM

Even if we stop all emissions tomorrow the warming effect would still proceed for a long time because the correlation between GHG emissions and warming is not immediate.  We need to not only reduce emissions we need to start pulling CO2 and other GHG out of the atmosphere.  Obviously removing CO2 from the atmosphere is not really possible with current technology so I don't know what can be done to help this situation.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 09:19:41 AM

CO2 capture is working directly against entropy ina huge way.  The only way to overcome entropy of course is with energy.  This is something we can't get around at all, ever.

But sure, with enough energy we could remove CO2 from the air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 09:25:44 AM

The US generates about 5 gigatons of CO2 per year.  This bill may reduce that by 10-15%, perhaps.  Current trends had us on a path to reduce it by 25-30% anyway.  If we generously say this bill means 1 gigaton less CO2 per year will be generated, well, a very simplistic notion is 500 gigatons = 1.5°C, some one Gt per year would have a vainishingly tiny impact.

 In 2019, the year before the COVID pandemic depressed the global economy, the world discharged about 42 gigatons of CO₂—similar to the 2018 level and to what is happening in 2021. According to the midrange scenario in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s comprehensive report released in August, “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis,” another 500 gigatons of CO2 emissions will raise global temperature by 1.5 degrees. Nations have about 11 more years at current emissions rates—2032—before exhausting the budget.

There's Still Time to Fix Climate--About 11 Years - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/theres-still-time-to-fix-climate-about-11-years/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 09:38:51 AM

There's Still Time to Fix Climate--About 11 Years - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/theres-still-time-to-fix-climate-about-11-years/)

 As of July 30, the U.N. report says, 113 of the 191 nations that signed the Paris Accord had made some level of commitment to reduce emissions. Under the latest promises, global emissions by 2030 would actually be 5.0 percent higher than in 2019—not lower—in the midrange scenario the IPCC uses. The report notes that emissions from the nations that have issued revised goals since 2015, as a group, would indeed be lower in 2030 compared with 2019, so the net increase worldwide would come from the countries that have not improved their original commitments and countries that have never committed.

(https://i.imgur.com/keNtq7r.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Gigem on August 29, 2022, 09:55:19 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 09:19:41 AM

CO2 capture is working directly against entropy ina huge way.  The only way to overcome entropy of course is with energy.  This is something we can't get around at all, ever.

But sure, with enough energy we could remove CO2 from the air.

Therein lies the rub right?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 01:01:51 PM

Support for fossil fuels almost doubled in 2021, analysis from OECD and IEA shows (worldoil.com) (https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/8/29/support-for-fossil-fuels-almost-doubled-in-2021-analysis-from-oecd-and-iea-shows/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2022, 01:29:03 PM

support?

ya mean demand or consumption?

or support by politicians to try to burn the planet?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 29, 2022, 01:53:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 01:21:32 PM

New climate law has bipartisan roots — we need leadership from both parties to realize its potential | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3618019-new-climate-law-has-bipartisan-roots-we-need-leadership-from-both-parties-to-realize-its-potential/)


I have looked for how many degrees C this new climate (etc.) bill will reduce warming long term.  I can't find an estimate.  It should be pretty easy to contrive.  I asked the MIT Climate Group to produce one, but they never responded.

I suspect I know why.

Why the getting financed by one side or the other?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2022, 03:58:28 PM

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise | Nature Climate Change (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2022, 07:29:10 PM

overnight low of 50 degrees with low humidity

almost perfect

windows open

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2022, 07:56:53 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2022, 03:58:28 PM

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise | Nature Climate Change (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2)

The ice sheet things are scary longer term, I think, but past 2100.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2022, 03:47:01 PM

Governments Are Rethinking Nuclear Power

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/governments-are-rethinking-nuclear-power/ar-AA11grPn?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=630e6634352a4f90b1f511d28dd4cdd2 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/governments-are-rethinking-nuclear-power/ar-AA11grPn?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=630e6634352a4f90b1f511d28dd4cdd2)

The crisis in Ukraine may be rushing in a new golden age for nuclear power. Recent announcements from Germany, California, and Japan—three places where early retirement of nuclear plants has been a heated policy debate—signal that the world’s energy crisis could be turning the tide on nuclear energy.

The process of decommissioning Germany’s nuclear plants has been a decades-long journey as part of its larger energy transition, known as Energiewende, but the retirements were accelerated after the Fukushima accident in 2011. Currently, only three of the 17 nuclear power plants that were operating a decade ago in Germany are still in use, providing about 6% of the country’s electricity; all three of these plants are scheduled to be retired by the end of this year.

“Germany has a really large and really strong anti-nuclear movement, ever since the 1980s,” said Jessica Lovering, the cofounder and executive director of Good Energy Collective, a pro-nuclear research group. “They felt that they were impacted from the fallout of Chernobyl, and that’s where that sort of movement gained a lot of momentum. Germany also has a very strong coal industry. The coal industry has long lobbied to close nuclear power plants, because that’s their competition.”

After Russia invaded Ukraine in March, Germany’s neighbor Belgium almost immediately worked out a deal with its nuclear provider, Engie, to extend the life of two of its reactors, which were set to be retired in the middle of this decade, for another 10 years. Germany, however, seemed set on keeping its initial retirement date, despite soaring energy prices—until this month, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he wanted to wait for the results of a comprehensive “stress test” later this year to determine whether or not the plants should be retired.

“It does make a lot of logical sense,” said Lovering. “They don’t have a lot of other options. They’re doing sort of everything they can to reduce gas consumption. And this is a really simple thing that can be done. Easy.”



That’s also the sentiment that seems to be prevailing thousands of miles away, in California. Earlier this month, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that he would pressure to keep open Diablo Canyon, a 2,240-megawatt plant situated on California’s southern coast, to help with the state’s aggressive decarbonization goals; a draft bill, introduced late on Sunday, provides a pathway to extend the plant’s life an additional five years past its scheduled retirement date in 2025. “In the face of extreme heat, wildfires, and other extreme events that strain our current electrical system, the state is focused on maintaining energy reliability while accelerating efforts to combat climate change,” the governor’s office said in a statement earlier this month.

A slew of complex issues, including water permits and the steep costs of operation, led the California plant’s operator, Pacific Gas & Electric, to announce in 2016 that it planned to retire the facility at the end of its federal license—a welcome piece of news for anti-nuclear environmentalists in the state, who had long protested the plant thanks in part to its location along earthquake fault lines. But the plant, the last functioning nuclear plant in the state, provides almost 10% of California’s electricity, and the new bill allows up to $1.4 billion in loans from the state to keep the facility running.

“If you kept nuclear plants running, you could shut down coal plants,” said Matt Bowen, a research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “That would mean much lower CO2 emissions as well as much lower air pollution.”

Keeping aging plants open is one thing, but building new ones is a different conversation entirely—one that Japan, of all places, is wading into. Last week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Japan would consider restarting some of its nuclear plants, many of which have sat idle since the Fukushima disaster. Kishida also said that the country is exploring the option of building new next-generation reactors, with a goal of bringing them online in the 2030s.

“Japan is one of the best in the world in terms of building new nuclear power plants,” said Bowen.

Even though gearing up nuclear power could help wean countries and states off of fossil fuels, it doesn’t mean their reliance on Russia will go away entirely. Russia is one of the world’s most important stops in the supply chain for nuclear fuel, providing 46% of the world’s uranium enrichment capacity and 40% of its uranium conversion. If the crisis in Ukraine drags on for years, countries that are increasing or maintaining their nuclear capacity may need to find other sources for fuel production.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2022, 03:53:58 PM

Putin was funding the anti-nuclear groups in Germany and elsewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2022, 04:02:49 PM

he has other pressing issues today

heck, no one thought the war would last a month, now it's over 6 months long and looking like Russia may have to back out and get nothing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2022, 04:10:00 PM

I think Russia likely can hold what it has, mostly.  It's a lot tougher to take than hold.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2022, 04:11:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2022, 03:53:58 PM

Putin was funding the anti-nuclear groups in Germany and elsewhere.

Among other things.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2022, 04:32:09 PM

Germany and Denmark have agreed on a $9 billion deal to build an offshore wind power project in the Baltic Sea that authorities said would provide enough power for up to 4.5 million households by 2030.

Announced Monday, the deal involves Denmark boosting its planned wind power capacity on Bornholm Energy Island from 2 to 3 gigawatts, per State of Green, an energy and climate arm of the Danish government.

The deal also includes a 292-mile subsea cable that links Bornholm's wind parks to the German grid in a bid to reduce the region's reliance on Russian gas and oil.

Currently, Denmark and Germany have offshore wind power capabilities of 1.5 gigawatts and 1 gigawatts in the Baltic Sea, accounting for more than 90% of the region's wind energy, State of Green wrote in its statement.


The infrastructure to connect the wind parks will cost $3 billion, while $6 billion would be needed to bolster the wind parks, Bloomberg reported, citing the Danish government.

In State of Green's Monday statement, Dan Jørgensen, Denmark's minister for climate, energy, and utilities, called the project a "landmark in energy history" at a time when "international cooperation is more urgent than ever before."

Robert Habeck, Germany's minister for economic affairs and climate action, said the "flagship project" would help Europe achieve "energy security and climate neutrality."

On Friday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasized her nation's desire to pursue the "enormous" potential of offshore wind energy in the Baltic Sea, which she said could generate up to 90 gigawatts of power.

"Wind energy from the Baltic Sea will help us fight the climate crisis. And it is an investment in our security: it will help make us less dependent on gas from Russia," she said.

The world's total wind power capacity — both onshore and offshore — is now up to around 837 gigawatts, according to the Global Wind Energy Council. China holds the largest share in the world's offshore wind market, having raised its offshore wind capacity to 27.7 gigawatts in 2021, per the GWEC.

The European Commission has set a target for increasing its nations' total wind power capacity to 300 gigawatts by 2050, up from the 16 total gigawatts they have installed as of May.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2022, 04:51:21 PM

I dislike how they throw out these figures with no context, so many gigawatts.  OK, what percentage of total power is that?  Is that nameplate capacity or actual expected output?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2022, 08:21:04 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/e68VxtG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2022, 01:26:34 PM

Hurricane season: For the first time in 25 years, August will not have a named storm -- if we make it to the end of the day without one - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/weather/hurricane-august-no-named-storms-forecast/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2022, 03:09:08 PM

Energy transition: The land use conundrum | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/08/31/energy-transition-the-land-use-conundrum/#more-29025)

Abstract.  The global energy system has a relatively small land footprint at present, comprising just 0.4% of ice-free land. This pales in comparison to agricultural land use– 30–38% of ice-free land–yet future low-carbon energy systems that shift to more extensive technologies could dramatically alter landscapes around the globe. The challenge is more acute given the projected doubling of global energy consumption by 2050 and widespread electrification of transportation and industry. Yet unlike greenhouse gas emissions, land use intensity of energy has been rarely studied in a rigorous way. Here we calculate land-use intensity of energy (LUIE) for real-world sites across all major sources of electricity, integrating data from published literature, databases, and original data collection. We find a range of LUIE that span four orders of magnitude, from nuclear with 7.1 ha/TWh/y to dedicated biomass at 58,000 ha/TWh/y. By applying these LUIE results to the future electricity portfolios of ten energy scenarios, we conclude that land use could become a significant constraint on deep decarbonization of the power system, yet low-carbon, land-efficient options are available.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2022, 10:50:38 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2022, 01:26:34 PM

Hurricane season: For the first time in 25 years, August will not have a named storm -- if we make it to the end of the day without one - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/weather/hurricane-august-no-named-storms-forecast/index.html)

Got one now, but it's not going anywhere.


(https://i.imgur.com/DGUr309.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2022, 10:53:55 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/mlwosFj.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2022, 11:01:46 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2022, 10:50:38 AM

Got one now, but it's not going anywhere.


(https://i.imgur.com/DGUr309.png)

Ha, so did they intentionally wait to name it until today, so that August stat could be maintained? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2022, 11:16:12 AM

I don't know when it got named, but it sure seemed like the forecasters and media were really hoping to name one ASAP.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2022, 11:28:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2022, 11:16:12 AM

I don't know when it got named, but it sure seemed like the forecasters and media were really hoping to name one ASAP.

Well, yeah.  Hurricanes are the Superbowl to weather forecasters and mediots.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2022, 01:07:36 PM

A facility described by Danish energy firm Orsted as the "world's biggest offshore wind farm" is now fully operational, with its 165 turbines set to help power in excess of 1.4 million U.K. homes.

Situated roughly 89 kilometers (approximately 55 miles) off the coast of Yorkshire, England, the scale of Hornsea 2 is considerable.

According to Orsted, it has a capacity of more than 1.3 gigawatts and stretches across an area of 462 square kilometers — more than half the size of New York City. Hornsea 2, it added, uses Siemens Gamesa turbines with blades measuring 81 meters, or more than 265 feet.

"One revolution of the wind turbine blades can power an average UK home for 24 hours," the company says.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-world-s-biggest-offshore-wind-farm-is-now-fully-operational/ar-AA11kOcL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9ce51cf7ed894e62a56fefaa51c3836a (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-world-s-biggest-offshore-wind-farm-is-now-fully-operational/ar-AA11kOcL?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9ce51cf7ed894e62a56fefaa51c3836a)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 10:01:31 AM

Lots of stuff going on out there, but no threats to the USA.

(https://i.imgur.com/ag0pfNe.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 10:05:04 AM

Bermuda needs to keep an "eye" on this guy.

(https://i.imgur.com/3V1xXln.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2022, 11:39:01 AM

The historic window is about 3 more weeks

lets hope this continues

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 11:51:32 AM

Nothing is a threat to the Gulf right now. That other one way out there is forecast to head more North too.

We are in the teeth of the season now.

3 weeks eh?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2022, 02:20:55 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 11:51:32 AM

Nothing is a threat to the Gulf right now. That other one way out there is forecast to head more North too.

We are in the teeth of the season now.

3 weeks eh?

Ive never seen a named storm hit the Gulf Coast in October

if it has then not many

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 02:23:28 PM

What about down here?

The water stays warmer longer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2022, 02:42:33 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 02:23:28 PM

What about down here?

The water stays warmer longer.

Its not just water temp but the air currents which in Oct become much stronger

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 02:47:55 PM

Gotcha - thanks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 07, 2022, 01:24:45 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/dxB4dRW.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on September 07, 2022, 01:27:48 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/mJuC6k3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2022, 08:16:49 AM

Still lots going on, but threats to the USA.

(https://i.imgur.com/adC3GMF.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/6Z3nLnA.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2022, 10:02:01 AM

How about Elon Musk being put in charge of the Nuclear energy program, and everyone else just gets out of the way?


Hmmm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2022, 10:05:37 AM

how about anyone scared of nuclear power just get out of the way

and Biden could throw a few billion dollars at it

it's our only hope Obi Wan

(https://c.tenor.com/94c-LWTF2b0AAAAC/leia-youre-my-only-hope.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2022, 07:41:34 PM

(https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/climatechange.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2022, 09:00:14 PM

The latest info shows no tropical activity in the Atlantic

hope it continues

(https://i.imgur.com/KjDRGyS.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2022, 09:07:37 PM

we need rain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2022, 02:35:45 PM

Not a big fan of this one.

(https://i.imgur.com/tcufouK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2022, 02:44:43 PM

it looks like they expect it to turn more north so it may not enter the Gulf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2022, 02:53:47 PM

Too soon to tell. We should know by Saturday I think??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 15, 2022, 08:22:11 AM

It's got a name now. 50 MPH winds. We'll see where it goes.

(https://i.imgur.com/aSfwOoh.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 15, 2022, 10:16:52 AM

They now show it moving North enough to maybe spare Florida

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 15, 2022, 10:25:14 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 15, 2022, 10:16:52 AM

They now show it moving North enough to maybe spare Florida

I saw that too. Still gonna pay attention so that if I have to move stuff from outside to inside there is enough time.

I think next year I'm going to get that storm smart stuff put on the lanai so we can leave everything out there if a big storm comes. We didn't move anything when that Cat 1 came through last year. It's the Cat 3+ that I worry about.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 15, 2022, 10:41:46 AM

The good news is the window for a bad storm is closing more and more each day

If we can just get by the next 2 weeks I think we should be in the clear

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 15, 2022, 11:11:12 AM

Yep, very pleased about that. Also, pleased with the latest projection from Accuweather.

(https://i.imgur.com/HUm6UaN.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 15, 2022, 11:48:14 AM

Most of the salty old seahands I talk to, expected this to be a "fish storm."  And that's what the projection above is saying as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 15, 2022, 04:12:01 PM

get your bait ready

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 19, 2022, 09:23:31 AM

This thing his Puerto Rico yesterday and it's entire power grid was out for a while. It's now apparently back on for about 10% of the population. Jeez.

(https://i.imgur.com/GyLgj1e.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 19, 2022, 10:05:00 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 19, 2022, 09:23:31 AM

This thing his Puerto Rico yesterday and it's entire power grid was out for a while. It's now apparently back on for about 10% of the population. Jeez.

The last time a major storm hit here we were without power 15 days so Ive been there and it aint fun

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 19, 2022, 10:07:00 AM

Which one was that?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 19, 2022, 10:12:08 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 19, 2022, 10:07:00 AM

Which one was that?

Rita

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/rita

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 19, 2022, 10:16:32 AM

We also had a problem with Ike

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/projects_ike08#:~:text=Ike%20was%20a%20category%202,sustained%20winds%20of%20110%20mph.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2022, 09:54:27 AM

expected record high today of 98, current record is 94

not so humid in late September so heat index of only 100 or so

Teeing off at 2:15 - 

cool front coming - overnight low of 58, high tomorrow of 68

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2022, 10:06:37 AM

Got a few earthquakes.

7.6 in Mexico, with limited damage.

6.8 in Taiwan, with a lot of damage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2022, 08:14:06 AM

Pretty active out there all of a sudden. That red X is concerning at the moment, to those of us living along the Gulf.

Fiona is gonna put a hurt on Bermuda based on the current track. 50' waves are forecast. Much of that island is not above that - especially the more populated parts.

(https://i.imgur.com/D3FF0oS.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2022, 11:59:10 AM

I guess our flight path goes north of that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 21, 2022, 12:15:41 PM

Amazon, with a massive fleet of tens of thousands of delivery vehicles, will begin using a new, renewable form of diesel fuel for trucks in Southern California. The retail giant says this “electrofuel” diesel results in significantly less carbon pollution than petroleum-based diesel.

Starting in 2023, it will use this electrofuel diesel for trucks making so-called middle mile deliveries, such as between vendors and its distribution centers, said Daniel Gross, director of Amazon’sAMZN Climate Pledge Fund. Though this type of fuel has the same exhaust emissions of conventional diesel when used in an engine, the carbon savings come from how it’s produced: blending clean hydrogen made from renewable energy with waste carbon dioxide that’s been captured from industrial sources. Amazon is sourcing the fuel from Infinium, a Sacramento, California-based startup that the Climate Fund invested in last year.

(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1238wA.img?w=534&h=279&m=6)

Including carbon pollution from oil drilling and the diesel fuel refining process, “we believe it's about 95% reduction in CO2 emissions,” Gross tells Forbes. It also appears to be less polluting than bio-diesel. “The overall profile in terms of carbon emissions is better than what you would see from renewable diesel that's based on some kind of food crop.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/amazon-will-power-trucks-with-electrofuel-diesel-to-curb-carbon-emissions/ar-AA123fyY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=81f08851eed34512ac39423f6cef2b10 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/amazon-will-power-trucks-with-electrofuel-diesel-to-curb-carbon-emissions/ar-AA123fyY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=81f08851eed34512ac39423f6cef2b10)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2022, 12:20:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 21, 2022, 11:59:10 AM

I guess our flight path goes north of that

Depends on when you fly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 21, 2022, 12:33:16 PM

Scientists believe tanker planes could spray sulfur dioxide aerosol in the upper atmosphere over Earth’s poles to help them refreeze.

The temperatures of Earth’s poles could be cooled by about 2 degrees Celsius, the study says, costing about $11 billion annually.

But this proposal comes with risks, and it’s not a final solution to climate change—just a Band-Aid.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/here-s-one-way-we-could-refreeze-earth-s-melting-polar-ice/ar-AA123FTf?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=81f08851eed34512ac39423f6cef2b10 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/here-s-one-way-we-could-refreeze-earth-s-melting-polar-ice/ar-AA123FTf?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=81f08851eed34512ac39423f6cef2b10)

These stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI), as the study calls them, offer “a prospective climate intervention that would seek to abate global warming by slightly increasing the reflectiveness of the Earth’s upper atmosphere.”

The concept of SAI is nothing new, but this proposal calls for aerosols to be targeted at the places where melting ice can most dramatically lead to sea-level rise across the entire planet. With greater warming at the Earth’s poles over time, the study calls for “injections of sulfur dioxide (SO2)... which will oxidize into sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and coagulate into liquid supercooled aerosols after a month in the stratosphere.”

The expectation is that this could lower temperatures at the poles by 2 degrees Celsius. That’s enough cooling to help refreeze the polar extremes and bring average temperatures back in line with what they were before the industrial era. The harmful effects of climate change, such as extreme weather and massive flooding, could possibly be slowed.

“Subpolar deployment would quickly envelope the poles as well and could arrest or reverse ice and permafrost melt at high latitudes. This would yield global benefit by retarding sea level rise,” writes lead author Wake Smith in the study. Smith is a lecturer at Yale College and senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. Unlike previous aerosol plans, which would encompass the entire Earth, the one Smith proposes focuses just on latitudes beyond 60 degrees north and south (think north of Anchorage, Alaska, and south of Patagonia).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 21, 2022, 12:39:08 PM

If they can do that why not hurricanes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2022, 01:44:27 PM

Flying tomorrow 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2022, 02:10:26 PM

You should be fine then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2022, 02:32:09 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2022, 08:14:06 AM

Pretty active out there all of a sudden. That red X is concerning at the moment, to those of us living along the Gulf.

Not a big fan of this projection for that red X. If it takes that path, there is plenty of warm water along the way over which to build. Potential Cat 3's get my attention pretty quick.


(https://i.imgur.com/96a5B84.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2022, 09:17:27 AM

Models are all over the place.  I wouldn't take the current probability cone as anything more than a low chance.

(https://i.imgur.com/ibIwWA5.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2022, 09:32:52 AM

That black line... that would be a problem in my back yard.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 09:38:58 AM

Chicago doesn't have this problem ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 22, 2022, 09:59:52 AM

Our storms don't have names.

And if the timing of that is correct, that's two full days for future Hermine of slow movement and good upper-level conditions over the warmest water in the Atlantic basin that hasn't been touched by a tropical cyclone in 2 years. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2022, 10:24:54 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 09:38:58 AM

Chicago doesn't have this problem ;)

Hurricanes aren't a problem in California either.  badgerfan shoulda moved there...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 10:28:32 AM

there are large parts of Texas that enjoy the rain brought by hurricanes

just stay away from the gulf

you know, like Austin ;)

everyone is moving there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2022, 10:35:20 AM

Quote from: utee94 on September 22, 2022, 10:24:54 AM

Hurricanes aren't a problem in California either.  badgerfan shoulda moved there...

Rather have a little wind than get the shakes.

Generators don't help when you fall through the cracks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2022, 10:38:16 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 09:38:58 AM

Chicago doesn't have this problem ;)

Correct, but in Chicago I'd actually have to use my conceal permit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2022, 10:38:46 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 10:28:32 AM

there are large parts of Texas that enjoy the rain brought by hurricanes

just stay away from the gulf

you know, like Austin ;)

everyone is moving there

Austin doesn't get any hurricane rain, it never makes it this far inland.  Austin really never gets any rain 'tall.  So don't move here.

Thank You For Your Support

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 11:21:41 AM

y'all have to import water to make that bad beer

no wonder it's no good A tall

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2022, 11:27:17 AM

Yup, we have it delivered from Belgium and it's still terrible.  Don't ever drink our bad beer and don't move here.

Thank You For Your Support

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 01:39:49 PM

“Lowering the overall carbon footprint in this country means we’re going to electrify more and more of our economy,” Matheson said during the virtual event, which also featured Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., and Rep. Bob Latta, R-Ohio. “We need to be making a lot more electricity, but instead, we are reducing our capacity with the shutdown of power plants.”

Solar and wind power can be an important part of a broader energy portfolio, but they are only available part of the time, Matheson said. “At the end of the day, you need power that is there all the time, and that’s going to be nuclear or coal or natural gas.”

The North American Electric Reliability Corp., in its recent long-term grid reliability assessment, said that aggressive government efforts to reduce carbon emissions are among the factors increasing the risks to grid reliability.

“The report said we’re facing greater risk in 2022, and those risks are only going to increase in future years as demand grows, partly driven by extreme weather events,” Matheson said. “And, at the same time, the report said the country is experiencing, in their words, ‘the disorderly retirement of baseload power plants.’

“Electric cooperatives have worked to amplify the NERC report to make sure policymakers, both at the federal and state level, understand that the policy decisions that people are going to make have an impact on the grid … We want to make sure they understand that reliability should be a key focus in all of their policy recommendations.”

Matheson said electric co-ops will benefit greatly from two major pieces of legislation passed by Congress.

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed last fall “has so many different programs that offer funding to build better resilience into the electric system, both on the generation side and on the transmission and distribution side,” he said.

And just last month, Congress passed a budget bill that provides direct-pay tax credits for electric co-ops to deploy energy technologies, including carbon capture, nuclear, energy storage, renewables and more. For-profit utilities have had access to tax incentives for decades, but the credits had been out of reach for co-ops since most don’t pay federal income taxes.

“Those two pieces of legislation give us new tools, more flexibility, more investment capacity for our systems,” Matheson said. “And if we project out 10, 20, 30 years from now, people are going to look back at these two pieces of legislation as having tremendous significance in terms of building out a more reliable electric grid.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 02:25:39 PM

https://youtu.be/8PD-cfSE--0

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/W8sXLG9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2022, 08:20:06 AM

Hoping that veers or weakens, but it looks like a thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2022, 08:41:54 AM

Yeah, it does. I will be taking the bimini top off of my boat tomorrow or Sunday depending on the cone models.

Probably move all of the outdoor furniture inside from the lanai on Monday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2022, 08:50:03 AM

Do you have to board windows or are they OK?

Yeah, I'd be hunkering down.  You know you'll get hit a few times a decade anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2022, 09:19:32 AM

First improvement we made when we bought was impact windows rated to 225 MPH.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 23, 2022, 09:33:32 AM

solid investment!

good luck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 23, 2022, 09:39:50 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 22, 2022, 11:21:41 AM

y'all have to import water to make that bad beer

no wonder it's no good A tall

They exract it from wagon ruts,duh!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 23, 2022, 10:17:13 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2022, 08:41:54 AM

Yeah, it does. I will be taking the bimini top off of my boat tomorrow or Sunday depending on the cone models.

Probably move all of the outdoor furniture inside from the lanai on Monday.

How did your part of the world fare during Charley? It seems like that could be the comparison.

Unfortunately, the angle of the Florida coast means that a small shift in the approach angle to Florida means a 50 mile difference in the meat of the storm.

As for the windows, the rest of the house blows apart long before that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2022, 10:25:03 AM

Roof is good to 150 or so. The rest is concrete block. Not worried about the house. We are at around 15 feet, so not worried about surge.

Charley was devastating for Punta Gorda.

Hurricane Charley - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 23, 2022, 10:26:42 AM

I still think this storm might move even further East and almost miss Florida entirely

Each day they project this thing moving more East so you never know

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2022, 10:28:19 AM

That is my hope as I've noticed that too. We will know a ton more by tomorrow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2022, 10:29:18 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/iLMi8gC.png)

It would be fun for us to draw a track on such things with zero knowledge and see how well we could do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 23, 2022, 10:31:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2022, 10:28:19 AM

That is my hope as I've noticed that too. We will know a ton more by tomorrow.

also it looks like the forecast for a direct hit is 70 mph winds which aint a walk in the park but much better then it could have been

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2022, 10:32:26 AM

Still lots of ways this could go.  Being prepared is always a good thing, of course.

(https://i.imgur.com/snBKmjC.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 07:45:03 AM

Models pushing West now. Not what we wanted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2022, 07:46:40 AM

would have to go a long ways west to bring rain to western Iowa / eastern Nebraska

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 07:49:37 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/X11KSuF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 07:57:27 AM

That's a weird track, to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 08:00:21 AM

It's a bad one, to me. Not only will we get the big wind, but we will get the most rain. Gonna be a sloppy mess here if that track holds.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 08:01:23 AM

Yeah, you would be on the wrong side of landfall too ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 24, 2022, 08:25:18 AM

We'll take some of that rain off of your hands, if you don't want it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 08:27:32 AM

We looked at property between Jville and St. Aug and the realtor told us that area was a "hurricane desert".  ha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 24, 2022, 08:31:00 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 08:00:21 AM

It's a bad one, to me. Not only will we get the big wind, but we will get the most rain. Gonna be a sloppy mess here if that track holds.

Best wishes you to & the rest of FLA.I know about 10 yrs ago maybe a little longer the forecast-tracking had southern FLA getting pounded and everyone screaming up the N-S routes only to have it pull a hook and hit the northern part/panhandle and Ga. Cindy's sister & brother in Gainesville/Jax got hit pretty good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 08:46:41 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 08:01:23 AM

Yeah, you would be on the wrong side of landfall too ...

Yep. Those communities with a lot of canals are screwed if this hits North of us. It would be best for it to track South, but don't tell Naples and Marco I said that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 24, 2022, 09:53:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 08:27:32 AM

We looked at property between Jville and St. Aug and the realtor told us that area was a "hurricane desert".  ha.

We have one of those


(https://jameskaiser.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/hurricane-utah.jpg)


Named that because it's always windy as Hell. Not because it rains a lot. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 09:54:36 AM

We were in San Diego a while back and I spotted three fleet carriers in their harbor, which means six nuclear reactors right there, just across the bay from downtown.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 24, 2022, 10:06:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 08:27:32 AM

We looked at property between Jville and St. Aug and the realtor told us that area was a "hurricane desert".  ha.

meaning what? No worries about them?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 10:14:37 AM

She claimed they hadn't been hit in many decades for some reason.  I suppose it could be true.  We were mostly looking inland a few miles where it wouldn't be an issue very much other than water.

We saw a really nice single family house in a nice development priced under $400 K.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 24, 2022, 10:50:36 AM

847 where in Florida do you live?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 11:00:21 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Ay3wBVq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 11:03:06 AM

Cone just got nudged West again.

Man, if this hits the panhandle... ouch.

(https://i.imgur.com/Fj9n8eJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2022, 11:03:35 AM

I'm doing two baseball camps this year with a three day gap between them so I might stop by ... if I can still walk ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 11:23:17 AM

You're welcome any time. Plenty of space inside even though we mostly hang outside.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 24, 2022, 11:26:39 AM

847 right now it looks like the track would take it 100 to 150 miles north of of you

if this thing would just go maybe another 50 miles more north you would be in good shape

course who know it could go south too

good luck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 11:35:31 AM

Thanks buddy. I know luck is not a plan, but I'd take it any time. Including tonight against the Death Star.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 24, 2022, 12:00:17 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 11:00:21 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Ay3wBVq.png)

Yes - that side can be rough.  I am directly across on the pacific side.  But I have a brother on a canal of course, in Cape Coral. 


(https://i.imgur.com/PAW52q4.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 12:07:57 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 24, 2022, 12:00:17 PM

Yes - that side can be rough.  I am directly across on the pacific side.  But I have a brother on a canal of course, in Cape Coral.


(https://i.imgur.com/PAW52q4.jpg)

Salt or fresh?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 24, 2022, 12:09:56 PM

Inter coastal- brackish 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2022, 12:16:36 PM

That's a surge problem. Hope he is high enough.

It's a pretty expansive system they have down there.

(https://i.imgur.com/hwcaAMf.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2022, 02:20:54 PM

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 24 counties as Tropical Storm Ian gathers strength over the Caribbean and is expected to bring heavy rain and hurricane-force winds to the state next week.

DeSantis issued the order Friday encouraging residents and local governments to make preparations as the storm moves toward the state. He has also requested a federal pre-landfall emergency declaration.

“This storm has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane and we encourage all Floridians to make their preparations,” DeSantis said in a statement. “We are coordinating with all state and local government partners to track potential impacts of this storm.”

The National Hurricane Center said Ian is forecast to rapidly strengthen in the coming days before moving over western Cuba and approach Florida next week with major hurricane force.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 01:11:08 AM

as of about 10pm eastern time Ian is forecast to hit further up the coast toward the Tallahassee area

If that happens then 847 might have dodged a bullet


(https://i.imgur.com/LLaoxyU.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 08:13:41 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 01:11:08 AM

as of about 10pm eastern time Ian is forecast to hit further up the coast toward the Tallahassee area

If that happens then 847 might have dodged a bullet

8AM update. We're still in the forecast cone. Of course that is better to being in the middle.

Truly dodging a bullet would have been for this thing to hit way South.


(https://i.imgur.com/C7KXjC9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2022, 08:38:55 AM

My wife had the local weather guy on this AM and he was talking about it's impact here being probably a thing by Friday...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 25, 2022, 09:44:58 AM

just in time to ruin the weekend

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 10:03:22 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 08:13:41 AM

8AM update. We're still in the forecast cone. Of course that is better to being in the middle.

Truly dodging a bullet would have been for this thing to hit way South.


(https://i.imgur.com/C7KXjC9.png)

To me having 50 mph winds is better then 100 mph winds

Strong winds generally extend out from the eye 150 miles

If this goes where it is currently forecast you shouldnt be within that range

anyway good luck hang in there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 10:18:58 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 10:03:22 AM

To me having 50 mph winds is better then 100 mph winds

Strong winds generally extend out from the eye 150 miles

If this goes where it is currently forecast you shouldnt be within that range

anyway good luck hang in there

For sure. Still a chance it could take a hard right though. I just hate being on the dirty side. Very messy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 10:46:50 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 10:18:58 AM

For sure. Still a chance it could take a hard right though. I just hate being on the dirty side. Very messy.

I grew up in Texas City and in 1961 we had a storm called Carla

When it hit we were on the dirty side of it

We evacuated for 2 weeks and when we returned home we found the water had gotten doorknob high in our house

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 25, 2022, 10:48:03 AM

scarred for life

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 11:05:16 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 10:46:50 AM

I grew up in Texas City and in 1961 we had a storm called Carla

When it hit we were on the dirty side of it

We evacuated for 2 weeks and when we returned home we found the water had gotten doorknob high in our house

Ouch!

No danger of that here on my street, but parts of this development are at risk for sure.


(https://i.imgur.com/tyef1C8.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 11:07:18 AM

Not a fan of this trend pushing the cone further East.

(https://i.imgur.com/DxLgC0y.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 11:13:41 AM

So I've got this cabinet outside on the lanai - weighs 250 lbs and it's pushed up against the house, which faces West (wrong way this this storm).

Do I have to move it, or will it be OK? Center of gravity is very low. 

The storage box we have is bolted into the concrete with lead taps and SS screws - 8 of them. That should hold up OK??

Planter boxes weigh 150 lbs and are low to the ground - 18". We will move those against the house. OK???

We purposely bought aluminum furniture so that's easy to move.

Sorry for all the questions. We're newbies at this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 11:22:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 11:13:41 AM

So I've got this cabinet outside on the lanai - weighs 250 lbs and it's pushed up against the house, which faces West (wrong way this this storm).

Do I have to move it, or will it be OK? Center of gravity is very low.

The storage box we have is bolted into the concrete with lead taps and SS screws - 8 of them. That should hold up OK??

Planter boxes weigh 150 lbs and are low to the ground - 18". We will move those against the house. OK???

We purposely bought aluminum furniture so that's easy to move.

Sorry for all the questions. We're newbies at this.

Never hurts to be prepared for the worst

If this thing goes where its now projected you will get some hard rain and winds gusting to 30 to 50 for a short time and thats it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 11:23:08 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 25, 2022, 10:48:03 AM

scarred for life

nope I prefer to call it getting experience and a lot of respect for mother nature

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 11:31:13 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 11:22:05 AM

Never hurts to be prepared for the worst

If this thing goes where its now projected you will get some hard rain and winds gusting to 30 to 50 for a short time and thats it

It's actually nice that we have two barrier islands in the way - Captiva and Pine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 25, 2022, 11:39:55 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 11:22:05 AM

Never hurts to be prepared for the worst

yup, 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2022, 12:14:41 PM

It can actually "hurt" to prepare for the worst, but is also hurts more when the opposite happens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 12:57:58 PM

It's a pain in the ass, and I hope it's all for nothing.

Taking a break now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 01:21:12 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 12:57:58 PM

It's a pain in the ass, and I hope it's all for nothing.

Taking a break now.

you know if you did nothing the storm would hit you dead on but because you bust your ass preparing for it the storm will go elsewhere

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 02:01:40 PM

Exactly. 

All outdoor electronics inside now.

Grill weighs 900 lbs. Not moving that SOB.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 25, 2022, 08:33:23 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/308009605_10227576689660784_4472841272422834332_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=pluOD3SS91sAX_ztki1&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT96KbjcB2T0fHbUAwBwPoYiDuTP25Kn6Mq9rLnd0S5fZw&oe=63353D9F)

From a Husker fan near Tampa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 25, 2022, 08:47:11 PM

It's not how hard the wind is blowing, it's WHAT the wind is blowing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 25, 2022, 09:38:32 PM

it's gotta blow pretty hard to toss around a 900lb grill

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 25, 2022, 09:46:48 PM

I bet that Cincydawg could calculate the exact velocity of wind needed. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 25, 2022, 10:04:59 PM

or 800lb gorilla!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 25, 2022, 10:15:13 PM

A gorilla can pick up 27 times its body weight. So an 800 pound gorilla could pick up over 20 of those grills at once. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2022, 06:13:02 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 25, 2022, 09:46:48 PM

I bet that Cincydawg could calculate the exact velocity of wind needed.

It obviously would depend on the aerodynamics of the grill ...

High speed cars need down force to avoid becoming an airplane, for a second or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2022, 06:42:41 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/W9RhukF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2022, 06:45:46 AM

I'd put a wing on that thing ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2022, 06:48:12 AM

It's tucked into a corner.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2022, 06:49:21 AM

Should be fine, I might put a concrete block on it, probably not (inside).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2022, 07:16:41 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 26, 2022, 06:49:21 AM

Should be fine, I might put a concrete block on it, probably not (inside).

I've got all of my cast iron cookware inside of it, so about an extra 100 lbs or so. I'm also trying down the lid and zip-tying the doors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2022, 08:18:14 AM

throw a couple briskets and a few racks of ribs and a flock of chickens in there and light it up, just to be safe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2022, 03:10:01 PM

Went to the store today for normal grocery shopping.

It looked like spring 2020.

Are people gonna shit 10 times more during a hurricane? Holy shit, for real.

Are people gonna drink 10 times more water during a hurricane?

Are people gonna eat 10 times more bread than they normally eat?

I saw one clown with 10 (!) cases of bottled water in his cart. They were $6.50 each!!

I certainly did not buy any. 

Bought Vodka, Gin and Scotch. Oh, and cigars.

Do these people think Publix, Walmart, ALDI, etc. are never going to open again?

WTF is wrong with people?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 27, 2022, 09:41:57 AM

847/HB/others hope things are well down there amongst the high winds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2022, 09:45:47 AM

Yup, prayers for all your Floridians, y'all hunker down and stay safe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 12:49:47 PM

MoFo Ian keeps moving East and South. We could be in for a real "treat" here tomorrow. 

I mean "threat".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 27, 2022, 12:52:19 PM

maybe you should fly up to Madison for the weekend and heckle Bert

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 01:09:37 PM

Too late for that even if I wanted to. Airports are shutting down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 27, 2022, 01:29:10 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2022, 03:10:01 PM

Went to the store today for normal grocery shopping.

It looked like spring 2020.

Are people gonna shit 10 times more during a hurricane? Holy shit, for real.

Are people gonna drink 10 times more water during a hurricane?

Are people gonna eat 10 times more bread than they normally eat?

I saw one clown with 10 (!) cases of bottled water in his cart. They were $6.50 each!!

I certainly did not buy any.

Bought Vodka, Gin and Scotch. Oh, and cigars.

Do these people think Publix, Walmart, ALDI, etc. are never going to open again?

WTF is wrong with people?

Considering most of SW FL will likely be two weeks or more without power, cooling, or potable water, the answer to all of your questions is yes. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 01:34:35 PM

The grid is pretty good here, actually. We have not lost power for more than a minute.

For us, we're on a line with a fire station, so even better.

No mass power loss after Irma hit, so I'm told.

Anyway, Publix will be closing today at 6PM, and will re-open Friday. No need to buy all of that stuff yesterday. I know some people who actually could not get needed goods, due to hoarding - just like 2020.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 27, 2022, 02:31:33 PM

I'd still be ready to scram. No matter where the eye comes in, the right front quadrant is going to shove a lot of storm surge into Lee and Charlotte Counties. Hide from the wind, but run from the water.

You may already be in a mandatory evacuation zone. 

Good luck, Badge. Hope things turn out well for all of you down there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2022, 02:48:32 PM

CMIP6 GCMs versus global surface temperatures: ECS discussion | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/09/25/cmip6-gcms-versus-global-surface-temperatures-ecs-discussion/#more-29143)

Basically, the worst case models are probably wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 03:52:57 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on September 27, 2022, 02:31:33 PM

I'd still be ready to scram. No matter where the eye comes in, the right front quadrant is going to shove a lot of storm surge into Lee and Charlotte Counties. Hide from the wind, but run from the water.

You may already be in a mandatory evacuation zone.

Good luck, Badge. Hope things turn out well for all of you down there.

Thank you.

We are not in a mandatory zone here. We are in Zone C. Zones A and B are evacuating (although I know many people who are not).

Red is A, orange is B, yellow is C, green is D. My house is where the red dot is, in the yellow.

(https://i.imgur.com/mswPdEH.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 03:55:59 PM

We are in Zone X - not floodplain. This was just remapped in 2021 by FEMA. They raised the elevation by a foot.

(https://i.imgur.com/O3SsPT7.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 05:06:54 PM

NHC moved it South again. We're in the direct hit zone now. I hope they keep moving it more South now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 27, 2022, 06:07:33 PM

I know someone who is visiting their folks in Fort Myers this week. They intend to stay at their house, which is somewhere in Zone B that is a long ways from any water. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 27, 2022, 10:34:47 PM

Amid serious concerns about the climate effects of carbon dioxide, scientists have discovered something intriguing — that trees appear to be growing faster and larger as levels of the compound rise.

In a press release, environmental researchers at Ohio State University claimed that the rate and size at which forests are growing may already be counteracting the worst effects of climate change.

"Forests are taking carbon out of the atmosphere at a rate of about 13 percent of our gross emissions," Brent Sohngen, co-author of the school's study published recently in Nature Communications and OSU professor of environmental and resource economics, said. "While we’re putting billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, we’re actually taking much of it out just by letting our forests grow."

Fried or Fertilized
Known as "carbon fertilization," this unique process occurs when plants encounter larger quantities of carbon, increasing their rate of photosynthesis and thus makes them grow faster.

That's a big deal, potentially, because trees sequester a lot of carbon. In the US alone, per Sohngen, they're estimated to trap between 700 and 800 million tons of atmospheric carbon per year, which cuts the country's carbon dioxide emissions by around 10 percent. So the idea that as climate change gets worse, the trees will compensate is compelling, to say the least.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/carbon-dioxide-seems-to-be-making-trees-grow-faster-scientists-say/ar-AA12jIqZ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=9d86d4081cee488f88c1ec82b0af4649 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/carbon-dioxide-seems-to-be-making-trees-grow-faster-scientists-say/ar-AA12jIqZ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=9d86d4081cee488f88c1ec82b0af4649)

The researcher noted that the average person wouldn't likely be able to go out into a forest and tell that the trees are bigger, but that the additional volume added to trees over the past few decades is significant. This process doesn't just occur in younger trees, either — even the giant, ancient redwoods of California have been adding biomass from elevated CO2 levels, the statement says.

For now, this study's findings are very preliminary. They were gleaned from correlating tree biomass data and carbon emissions information between the 1970s and the mid-2010s rather than actually testing out the trees themselves.

But it is intriguing. Planting and saving trees was never a bad thing to begin with, but if these OSU findings can be replicated, it could be a huge deal for tree-huggers the world around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2022, 10:58:48 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 05:06:54 PM

NHC moved it South again. We're in the direct hit zone now. I hope they keep moving it more South now.

Amen, brutha.  Seemed like this was going to slip by north of you but now you're in the cross-hairs.  Stay safe!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 27, 2022, 11:16:51 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2022, 05:06:54 PM

NHC moved it South again. We're in the direct hit zone now. I hope they keep moving it more South now.

The outer bands are starting to hit here. One tornado already   

Going to be nasty tomorrow around 8 am there Badge. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on September 27, 2022, 11:26:30 PM

Hoping all our Floridian posters stay safe.

We’re at least at No. 2, hoping we can avoid that bottom one.

https://twitter.com/katikokal/status/1574800375269531648?s=21&t=ifvpuTduOLWsfLHDoU2D3w

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2022, 07:27:32 AM

Bad for Badge, better for Tampa Bay area at least.  A direct hit can be better than close a miss on the wrong side.  I had hoped this would attentuate, not to be apparently.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on September 28, 2022, 08:33:02 AM

I used to live in a state that caught some degree of hurricane season. It was bad in spots, but not Florida bad. 

F’real, eff hurricane season. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2022, 08:37:14 AM

ya can't close Waffle House!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2022, 09:10:19 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 28, 2022, 07:27:32 AM

Bad for Badge, better for Tampa Bay area at least.  A direct hit can be better than close a miss on the wrong side.  I had hoped this would attentuate, not to be apparently.

So far, so good.

It's windy for sure.

Landfall is about 2PM. Then this thing will die down a lot. Lots of rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 09:29:35 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 28, 2022, 08:37:14 AM

ya can't close Waffle House!!!

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1574989009524178944?s=20&t=_b3d7Z9f8RGNs3CGVzERSQ

Good luck, Badge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 09:33:16 AM

Waffle House closing?

Godspeed, badge!


Seriously, keep us posted throughout the day so we know whether or not we need to send a Rescue Party comprised of the CFB51 Navy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on September 28, 2022, 09:35:46 AM

My brother lives in a suburb of Tampa called Brandon. Last night he said they were going to ride it out. Luckily for him, it has appeared to move south of him. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 09:36:14 AM

Yup, Waffle Houses are closed and shuttered at least in Punta Gorda and Fort Myers.

Also, Ian appears to have gone off his rocker overnight. There's a good chance that Ian comes in as a full-blown Category 5. 

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1575110216710234112?s=20&t=_f0iPm8uDmEJAKFrZRJ2eA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2022, 09:38:46 AM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on September 28, 2022, 09:35:46 AM

My brother lives in a suburb of Tampa called Brandon. Last night he said they were going to ride it out. Luckily for him, it has appeared to move south of him.

You would be surprised how many people down here “ ride it out”.   

My home was built to withstand a Cat 5 hit, and it holds up well. But the last one a couple years ago DESTROYED my landscaping and gutters. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2022, 09:42:23 AM

Mrs. 847 just made French toast, sausage and eggs. Nice treat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2022, 09:44:28 AM

you're a derned lucky man

and you know it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2022, 09:46:36 AM

F yeah.

Who needs waffle house when you got a Mrs. 847?

Got friends here too.

X marks my spot:


(https://i.imgur.com/jEskaZL.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on September 28, 2022, 10:25:57 AM

Wow.  Good luck.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 10:27:50 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2022, 09:46:36 AM

F yeah.

Who needs waffle house when you got a Mrs. 847?

Got friends here too.

X marks my spot:


(https://i.imgur.com/jEskaZL.png)

For sure, but GR wasn't bringing it up as a commentary on the quality of food available, but rather as an indicator of the severity of a natural disaster.  FEMA informally uses the "Waffle House Index" to determine how much aid an affected area is likely to need.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on September 28, 2022, 11:31:19 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 09:29:35 AM

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1574989009524178944?s=20&t=_b3d7Z9f8RGNs3CGVzERSQ

Good luck, Badge.

Ahhh, F$%*

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 11:59:56 AM

OK Florida folks, check in pls.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 28, 2022, 12:26:59 PM

Yeah, keep us posted, as it were.  

Got a few friends in Cape Coral and Clearwater.  Hoping for the best.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2022, 12:27:16 PM

So far so good. Thanks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 01:28:52 PM

What's the name of your municipality again, bf?  Burnt Store Marina?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 01:34:25 PM

Yup, Burnt Store Marina. And if the address I have for him is correct, they're getting belted right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 01:37:45 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 01:34:25 PM

Yup, Burnt Store Marina. And if the address I have for him is correct, they're getting belted right now.

Yeah that's what I was thinking.  They're getting it really bad over the next hour or so.

Oof.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 01:39:11 PM

Here's a link to Youtube channel tracking the storm and multiple web cams in the area, for those interested.  It looks... bad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2aticerEcs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2022, 02:14:25 PM

<iframe src="https://streamable.com/e/wqyoi0?autoplay=1&loop=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen allow="autoplay"></iframe>

Cape Coral- brothers place.  Just south of 847Badger. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2022, 02:16:34 PM

https://streamable.com/7x77f1


And it just getting started 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 02:29:31 PM

Yikes.  Hope he's okay!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 02:43:20 PM

Looks like badgerfan is about to be in the eye.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 28, 2022, 02:58:30 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 02:43:20 PM

Looks like badgerfan is about to be in the eye. 

yep

the somewhat good news is the wind has gone from a cat 4 to a cat2 or about 100 to 112 mph which is much better then 140

later today they forecast wind speeds to go to a cat 1 or 74 to 95 which is even better

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 03:20:14 PM

BSM is right in the eye. Unfortunately, the back side of the eye may be worse than the right front quadrant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 04:15:08 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 03:20:14 PM

BSM is right in the eye. Unfortunately, the back side of the eye may be worse than the right front quadrant.

Yeah.  Really concerned over him, and our other Floridians.

HB-- you okay?

And MDot is down in or near Miami, right?  He should be okay, one of my team members at work lives in Miami and he and I have been in communication all day.  Just rain and a little wind, he's said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2022, 04:28:56 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 04:15:08 PM

Yeah.  Really concerned over him, and our other Floridians.

HB-- you okay?

And MDot is down in or near Miami, right?  He should be okay, one of my team members at work lives in Miami and he and I have been in communication all day.  Just rain and a little wind, he's said.

All good here. Just outer band - high winds and heavy rain for hours 

Naples, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte reporting catastrophic water damage from tide surge though. Those cars I posted in the earlier vid are long gone now.  We may not hear from Badge for a day or 2- power is out all up and down that lower west coast.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 04:33:42 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2022, 04:28:56 PM

All good here. Just outer band - high winds and heavy rain for hours

Naples, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte reporting catastrophic water damage from tide surge though. Those cars I posted in the earlier vid are long gone now.  We may not hear from Badge for a day or 2- power is out all up and down that lower west coast. 

Yeah.  I was thinking he'd gotten a whole-house generator at some point, but might not be able to use it til water recedes.  And even then, internet could be down even if his home has generator-power.

Anybody have his cellphone#?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 05:08:44 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 04:33:42 PM

Yeah.  I was thinking he'd gotten a whole-house generator at some point, but might not be able to use it til water recedes.  And even then, internet could be down even if his home has generator-power.

Anybody have his cellphone#?

I think he's said his house has enough elevation where he wasn't in a mandatory evac zone, so surge wasn't going to get to the house.

As for his cell, I've got it and I'll try texting him. When service is spotty, SMS will attempt to get through whenever it can. I'll let you know if/when I hear from him.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2022, 05:37:24 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on September 28, 2022, 05:08:44 PM

I think he's said his house has enough elevation where he wasn't in a mandatory evac zone, so surge wasn't going to get to the house.

As for his cell, I've got it and I'll try texting him. When service is spotty, SMS will attempt to get through whenever it can. I'll let you know if/when I hear from him.

Thanks!  I texted Burny too, who I know has Jim's contact details.  Waiting to hear back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on September 29, 2022, 12:01:57 AM

I have his cell, plan to text him in am.  he's never been a night owl.    I have  family friend just east of Badge, this guy said, 'tons of rain' no power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 29, 2022, 09:20:42 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on September 29, 2022, 12:01:57 AM

I have his cell, plan to text him in am.  he's never been a night owl.    I have  family friend just east of Badge, this guy said, 'tons of rain' no power.

Sent the text ~4pm yesterday, and haven't yet heard from him. I am not surprised. Hurricanes destroy everything, and I don't think native Midwesterners like myself fully understand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2022, 09:37:23 AM

yup, all utilities could be out

cell service and internet

the generator is nice for the house, but can't help service providers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 29, 2022, 09:44:37 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on September 29, 2022, 09:20:42 AM

Sent the text ~4pm yesterday, and haven't yet heard from him. I am not surprised. Hurricanes destroy everything, and I don't think native Midwesterners like myself fully understand.

I despise this time of year.  Even in most years that we don't get pounded it's a constant stress.  

Somebody get me back to the hill country, pronto.  

I'll also text 847 on the off chance that only some texts are getting through.  That's how it was for us w/Laura, Katrina, Rita, etc. 

Buddy of mine lives in NE Cape Coral and did not evacuate "for various reasons" he said.  He said their particular area wasn't expected to do too badly and as of 10 pm-ish last night they were making it ok.  Can't get hold of him this morning though.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2022, 09:50:48 AM

Badge isn't much of a texter in my experience

or perhaps he just ignores me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 29, 2022, 09:56:29 AM

Yeah, he's slow on a good day.  I haven't texted him much, but when I do it'll be like a week or more later when I've forgotten the whole thing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 29, 2022, 10:00:11 AM

On the news, they said they're deploying ~100 mobile cell towers to Lee County today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 29, 2022, 10:13:55 AM

Quote from: utee94 on September 29, 2022, 10:00:11 AM

On the news, they said they're deploying ~100 mobile cell towers to Lee County today.

We have early damage assessments for my company ( throughout Florida).   Sanibe causeway gone. No power on most of that part of state. No cell or internet 

my brother in Cape Coral said “ mass destruction “ 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 29, 2022, 10:16:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 29, 2022, 09:50:48 AM

Badge isn't much of a texter in my experience

or perhaps he just ignores me

He's also not much of a texter to me, either. But in times where service is spotty, in my experience texts are the most likely to get through.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2022, 10:41:02 AM

Quote from: utee94 on September 29, 2022, 10:00:11 AM

On the news, they said they're deploying ~100 mobile cell towers to Lee County today.

with this news, I'm guessing service is less than spotty

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 29, 2022, 12:13:25 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 29, 2022, 10:13:55 AM

my brother in Cape Coral said “ mass destruction “

Crazy how these things are so hit and miss.  Heard back from my friend in Cape Coral about an hour ago.  He's outside doing cleanup but said no flooding or major damage to the home.  

Both Laura and Rita spared my family's property pretty much.  Nearly all the rest of our small town wasn't so fortunate.  Weird.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on September 29, 2022, 12:16:37 PM

My brother lives in Brandon, a suburb of Tampa. He never lost power nor cell service. No real damage at his place, but a lot of debris (leaves, branches, etc.) to pick up. He said that the temp dropped to 67 and he will need to put on long pants due to the cold weather. LOL

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on September 29, 2022, 12:27:29 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on September 29, 2022, 09:44:37 AM

I despise this time of year.  Even in most years that we don't get pounded it's a constant stress. 

Somebody get me back to the hill country, pronto. 

I'll also text 847 on the off chance that only some texts are getting through.  That's how it was for us w/Laura, Katrina, Rita, etc.

Buddy of mine lives in NE Cape Coral and did not evacuate "for various reasons" he said.  He said their particular area wasn't expected to do too badly and as of 10 pm-ish last night they were making it ok.  Can't get hold of him this morning though. 

When I first moved south, we caught some hurricane related stuff, but didn’t usually bear the brunt of it (well, one nasty side impact one year). And even that was deeply unpleasant.

Plus you’re just extra aware of how really close you are to so much chaos.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 29, 2022, 02:43:30 PM

Just heard from Burny who heard from badgerfan, he's alive and kickin'.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 29, 2022, 02:49:08 PM

Just got a text from 847Badger, says he's okay but bad cell coverage 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 29, 2022, 03:06:33 PM

good news

I wonder how his boats did and hopefully the back yard grill  didnt do a Wizard of Oz

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 29, 2022, 03:18:25 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 29, 2022, 03:06:33 PM

good news

I wonder how his boats did and hopefully the back yard grill  didnt do a Wizard of Oz

His boat can be replaced.  Many boats lost. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on September 29, 2022, 03:24:36 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 29, 2022, 02:43:30 PM

Just heard from Burny who heard from badgerfan, he's alive and kickin'.

Wooooo. Not even nature or God can keep our friend down for long. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 29, 2022, 04:21:21 PM

Can also confirm hearing from Badge this afternoon. Still alive and kicking. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 29, 2022, 07:09:57 PM

I was wondering about him.  The bridge to Sanibel Island is gone.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 29, 2022, 07:26:16 PM

Yeah I saw the pics.  That's gonna make it incredibly difficult to perform rescue operations and move clean up crews on and off the island. 

About 20 years ago the causeway between the Texas mainland at Port Isabel, and the barrier island of South Padre, had about an 80-foot section collapse after the support pilings and columns were struck by an errant string of barges.  It, too, was the only connection between the mainland and the barrier island, and for two months they had to use makeshift ferries to get cars and supplies across to the island.  I'm honestly surprised they were able to rebuild it in two months, but people get highly motivated when their sole source of electricity, fresh water, and transportation is completely severed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 29, 2022, 07:43:08 PM

Oh, don't worry, it'll be fixed in no time.  It's an island of wealthy people's houses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2022, 07:47:57 PM

let's start the clock

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2022, 09:58:49 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/309715423_621235399786403_6726331756008002979_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=Z36gkwG5l1EAX9GTmKK&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT9Y77hFZdqlGCAaEQA4Ajxxn_J_mFvWLntoQbrC8QVANA&oe=633A4870)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 30, 2022, 08:15:30 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 29, 2022, 07:09:57 PM

I was wondering about him.  The bridge to Sanibel Island is gone. 

The approach to the bridge is out, the main part is still there, no doubt needing checks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 30, 2022, 10:23:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 30, 2022, 08:15:30 AM

The approach to the bridge is out, the main part is still there, no doubt needing checks.

As well as at least one of the barrier islands that the causeway uses to access Sanibel.

The picture of the bridge does indeed look like the main structure itself is still standing, subject to inspection of course. 

(https://kubrick.htvapps.com/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/ap22271664480614.jpg?resize=660:*)

In this spot, the backfill behind the mainland abutment (and the MSE walls holding said backfill in place) washed away. While this is going to be a messy cleanup, the reconstruct is pretty straightforward and pales in comparison to re-dredging San Carlos Bay to build up the causeway.  I realize that the most efficient way to move anything is by water (including dredged material), but that's a LOT of fill.

MnDOT built new bridges for I-90 over the Mississippi River near Dresbach some years ago. Part of the approaches on the Minnesota side required an enormous amount of fill, and the designers were scrambling on where to get it from. Turns out the Army Corps of Engineers was dredging the channel in the area, and they pumped the dredged material directly off the barge and onto the grade. Great bargain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 30, 2022, 09:36:53 PM

Dang, just read this thread and didn't realize that 847 was in the middle of ground zero for this storm.  Hate to hear it, hope all is well.  We live about ~12 miles from the coast in Brazoria county.  Been through several of these big and small storms through the years.  Harvey flooded one of our rent houses to the roofline in 2017, and it hit hundreds of miles south of here.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2022, 07:27:33 AM

The world’s largest carbon removal project will break ground in Wyoming – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/3669378-the-worlds-largest-carbon-removal-project-will-break-ground-in-wyoming/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 01, 2022, 11:33:15 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2022, 07:27:33 AM

The world’s largest carbon removal project will break ground in Wyoming – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/3669378-the-worlds-largest-carbon-removal-project-will-break-ground-in-wyoming/)

seems like a complete waste of time and money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2022, 11:40:58 AM

could simply waste time and money planting trees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2022, 12:00:07 PM

SIOUX CITY, Iowa (KCAU) — After hearing resident concerns regarding the future of MidAmerica Energy’s Port Neal power plant, Woodbury County supervisors offered some clarity on the subject today.

Board chair Keith Radig tells us the concerns arose after recent discussion about wind farm expansion in woodbury county.

Board Chair Keith Radig told KCAU 9 the concerns arose after recent discussions about wind farm expansion in Woodbury County. After a recent meeting including board member Jeremy Taylor, the Siouxland Chamber and MidAmerican Energy, Radig said he doesn’t see any changes coming.

“The main concern is if you rely soley on wind in a place like Woodbury County where you have such variations of temperature, that in a severe temperature event we wouldn’t have the power with just wind alone. So we need the coal as kind of like a battery or fall back when there’s just not enough wind in the area.” said Radig.

During Tuesday’s meeting, Radig read a prepared statement including information from the meeting recently attended by Taylor. In it, MidAmerican representative Sam Wagner indicated Port Neal and it’s 100+ employees aren’t going away and that Mid American is committed to a diverse energy portfolio and recognizes the critical need for all energy sources including coal, wind and nuclear.

Radig said ultimately anyone expressing issues with how utilities are regulated in Iowa should contact lawmakers or the state utility board.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2022, 01:38:10 PM

Short and sweet... we made it. Marina is devastated. My boat survived.


Still running on generator - trying to find a fill. Have running water and all the stores are open. Lines for gas are long.

No Verizon service at home so I'm at a fire station doing this.

House is fine. Pool cage is not fine.

150 MPH sustained with gusts to 200.

Holy SHIT!!

Thanks for all the concern. It means a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 02, 2022, 01:55:59 PM

Thats great news 847

You had us all concerned

Glad you have a generator and that your boat survived

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2022, 09:57:02 AM

great news!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on October 03, 2022, 10:05:43 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2022, 01:38:10 PM

Short and sweet... we made it. Marina is devastated. My boat survived.


Still running on generator - trying to find a fill. Have running water and all the stores are open. Lines for gas are long.

No Verizon service at home so I'm at a fire station doing this.

House is fine. Pool cage is not fine.

150 MPH sustained with gusts to 200.

Holy SHIT!!

Thanks for all the concern. It means a lot.

As long as people are fine, house is fine and boat survived, sounds like a relatively good way to come out of it. Bad break on the pool cage, whatever that is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2022, 10:13:19 AM

what about the 800lb grill??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2022, 11:17:25 AM

Pools in Fl nearly always are surrounded by a "cage" to keep out bugs and gators and whatnot.

Mostly bugs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 03, 2022, 12:46:20 PM

Wait, so gators don't belong in the backyard pools?  

I thought they're basically free landscaping additions that add flare to the scenery and some adrenaline to water-recreational time.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2022, 01:21:06 PM

the little ones are SO cute!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2022, 07:08:19 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/NT9N0PG.png)

They had a direct hit just north of Badgerfan.  This is where I play baseball every January.  It's a brand new facility.  There is/was a lot of new home construction in the area, along with the usual buildings housing various and sundry.  I'm sure the trees took a hit, mostly pines.  I haven't heard anything about camp being delayed or changed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 04, 2022, 09:08:08 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 03, 2022, 12:46:20 PM

Wait, so gators don't belong in the backyard pools? 

I thought they're basically free landscaping additions that add flare to the scenery and some adrenaline to water-recreational time. 

They are supposed to stay in the moat, and out of the pool. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2022, 09:32:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2022, 07:08:19 AM

They had a direct hit just north of Badgerfan.  This is where I play baseball every January.  It's a brand new facility.  There is/was a lot of new home construction in the area, along with the usual buildings housing various and sundry.  I'm sure the trees took a hit, mostly pines.  I haven't heard anything about camp being delayed or changed.

That eye was so huge*, we took a direct hit here too. It was sunny and calm for 45 minutes and then the shit hit the 155 MPH fan. Spooky.

* Hurricane Charley could have fit within Ian's eye completely. That's how big this monster was.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on October 04, 2022, 09:42:24 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2022, 09:32:33 AM

That eye was so huge*, we took a direct hit here too. It was sunny and calm for 45 minutes and then the shit hit the 155 MPH fan. Spooky.

* Hurricane Charley could have fit within Ian's eye completely. That's how big this monster was.

One of the meteorologists here in the Twin Cities overlaid Ian's eye on the Twin Cities. It was larger than the 494/694 loop. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2022, 11:45:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/AQ7Pr6C.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 05, 2022, 01:05:26 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2022, 11:45:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/AQ7Pr6C.png)

a lot of truth to this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2022, 09:15:22 AM

not the truth

congress will send aid

Florida is not a flyover state

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2022, 09:48:35 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 06, 2022, 09:15:22 AM

not the truth

congress will send aid

Florida is not a flyover state

It is now. At least my part of it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2022, 12:55:28 PM

General Electric
is laying off 20 percent of its U.S. onshore wind workforce, which equates to hundreds of jobs, according to a person familiar with the matter who declined to be named.

A note was sent out to employees yesterday.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/ge-layoff-20percent-of-onshore-wind-workforce-hundreds-of-jobs.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/ge-layoff-20percent-of-onshore-wind-workforce-hundreds-of-jobs.html)

GE is said to be examining its onshore wind footprint in Europe and Asia as well.

GE’s restructuring comes as its renewable energy business faces a trifecta of challenges: Rising input costs, supply chain issues, and competition from the likes of Siemens
. While demand for clean energy options is rising as energy shortages continue wreak havoc, analysts say making it’s been difficult to make wind energy a cost effective option. The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act does restore a tax credit for onshore wind, but some experts worry it came too late.

According to analysis from Melius Research, GE’s renewables segment is going to generate between $15 billion and $16 billion in revenue this year, and onshore wind will make up the vast majority, roughly 70%.

Jake Levinson, Director at Melius research says there is pressure to get the renewables business in a better place before it makes the split. “Shareholder interest in a money-losing or marginally profitable business would likely be very low, even in a “hot” space like renewables,” added Levinson.

Meanwhile, General Electric is in the process of splitting into three publicly traded companies – health care, aerospace, and energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2022, 01:03:14 PM

We can see right here where the Mississippi River wants to naturally flow, but it's not being allowed to.

(https://i.imgur.com/j1W6b9V.jpg)

There are a series of control structures - and even a power plant - associated with trying to control nature.

Given the vast amount of floodplain available in what should be its path, a whole lot of people in the current path would be much more protected.

(https://i.imgur.com/XGjyLSr.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 17, 2022, 11:26:27 AM

847

Hows it going at your place?

Do you have power yet?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2022, 11:29:50 AM

Yes, we have power since 10/08, but still no internet. I'm working with a hot spot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 17, 2022, 11:33:18 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2022, 11:29:50 AM

Yes, we have power since 10/08, but still no internet. I'm working with a hot spot.

thats almost worse then no power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2022, 06:23:57 PM

34 overnite with drizzle/sleet/snow combo - 70s by the week end

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 18, 2022, 07:03:49 PM

Its supposed to get down to 42 tomorrow morning here in Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2022, 08:06:40 AM

60 degrees now. High of 70, low of 55. Big front hitting the S/SE.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on October 19, 2022, 08:08:35 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 18, 2022, 06:23:57 PM

34 overnite with drizzle/sleet/snow combo - 70s by the week end

We've had light snow here the last couple of days. It should end today and 70's by the week end. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2022, 08:16:10 AM

42 in the ATX right now. Just went for a run, it felt pretty great.

It'll hit 70 today, then mid-upper-80s Thurs-Monday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2022, 10:06:16 AM

An interview with top climate scientist Bjorn Stevens | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/10/22/an-interview-with-top-climate-scientist-bjorn-stevens/#more-29241)

ZEIT: Were the models faulty?
Stevens: Yes. Too many children’s book clouds, not enough real clouds. In the world climate research program we have tackled the climate models. The models with the most extreme predictions have failed, and confidence in the less catastrophic values of climate sensitivity has increased  (https://mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/communication/Im_Fokus/2021/210812_IPCC_Marotzke/ImFokus.IPCC.pdf). In my opinion, however, the contribution of the clouds is still overstated.
ZEIT: How great is it?
Stevens: Based on our latest measurements and advances in theory, I would say today: zero.
ZEIT: Zero?
Stevens: Right, at least that’s my working hypothesis. The climate sensitivity is then at the lower end of the IPCC estimate, around 2.8 degrees. We should keep looking, but so far there’s no evidence that clouds play a major role.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 10:15:42 AM

"top" climate Scientist

glad they didn't ask the mid or bottom scientist

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 23, 2022, 10:20:44 AM

Maybe he should enjoy that 2.8 deg spike and go fishing/golfing or a schooner on a pub patio

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 10:24:20 AM

I'm gonna

expected high of 87 here today

unfortunately too windy for golf

I'll get some yard work done this afternoon - maybe

Vikings off this weekend

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 23, 2022, 10:28:35 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 10:24:20 AM

I'm gonna

expected high of 87 here today

unfortunately too windy for golf

I'll get some yard work done this afternoon - maybe

Vikings off this weekend

Too windy for golf??

Here in Texas if you didnt play golf in high winds you would hardly ever play

If you dont run into Dorthy and Toto in the club house tee it up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 10:38:41 AM

yup, I have the luxury of playing w/o wind

I played the past 3 afternoons w/o wind, so taking a day off while wind gusts hit 40mph this afternoon

highs next week expected in the 60s so I can still play in short britches

I've played over 60 rounds this season, might get 4 or 5 more.  10 more if the start of November is good

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on October 23, 2022, 04:02:37 PM

Played today first round since July.  It was gorgeous, windy but this is the Midwest.   Had a birdie and managed to stay under 90 with a lot of 3 jacks.   

We've had very little rain since early Sept so a lot of rollout.  One of those rounds where one par 5 is driver, six iron to the green, then a par four is driver, 4 iron and you're still well short. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 10:25:33 PM

Sioux City has broken the Record High temperature for October 23rd. The 2 PM observation at the Sioux Gateway Airport was 84° shattering the 123 year old record of 83° from way back in 1899!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 23, 2022, 10:35:13 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 10:25:33 PM

Sioux City has broken the Record High temperature for October 23rd. The 2 PM observation at the Sioux Gateway Airport was 84° shattering the 123 year old record of 83° from way back in 1899!

kinda hard to believe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 11:00:44 PM

shattered by one degree

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 24, 2022, 10:42:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 23, 2022, 11:00:44 PM

shattered by one degree

climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 24, 2022, 10:56:38 AM

as I've pointed out.  Weather people like to exaggerate 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 24, 2022, 11:10:21 AM

Why was it so hot in 1899? Iowa cows farting or something?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 24, 2022, 11:23:45 AM

Bison

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 24, 2022, 08:30:38 PM

We are having January here, which is not that bad; highs in the 50s, but it was high 80s up through Saturday. 

Got some snow on the mountain tops too. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on October 24, 2022, 08:32:17 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 24, 2022, 11:23:45 AM

Bison

Wolves huffing and puffing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 24, 2022, 08:33:25 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 24, 2022, 08:30:38 PM

We are having January here, which is not that bad; highs in the 50s, but it was high 80s up through Saturday.

Got some snow on the mountain tops too.

Matter of fact, the town just north of here is high enough to get the snow. 



https://twitter.com/SUUFB_/status/1584624586834182152?s=20&t=pbcYeo1xNRpcAi3nwenf3Q

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 24, 2022, 08:34:28 PM

So yeah, guess what's heading East? 

Mwa hahahahaha. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 24, 2022, 08:39:20 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 24, 2022, 08:33:25 PM

Matter of fact, the town just north of here is high enough to get the snow.

keep it until Dec 23rd or 4th

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on October 24, 2022, 09:08:01 PM

Saw some incredible footage of farmers tilling at a crazy clip to help control the wildfires south of Lincoln.     Have always read about that but to see footage was really amazing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 24, 2022, 09:14:10 PM

I've seen it live a few times

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2022, 10:24:52 AM

World 'nowhere near' hitting Paris climate targets, U.N. warns (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/world-emissions-paris-climate-targets-un-report-rcna54044)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 26, 2022, 10:53:18 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2022, 10:24:52 AM

World 'nowhere near' hitting Paris climate targets, U.N. warns (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/world-emissions-paris-climate-targets-un-report-rcna54044)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2022, 04:36:15 PM

Only a complete and rapid system shift can avoid climate disaster | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3714540-only-a-complete-and-rapid-system-shift-can-avoid-climate-disaster/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2022, 06:07:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2022, 04:36:15 PM

Only a complete and rapid system shift can avoid climate disaster | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3714540-only-a-complete-and-rapid-system-shift-can-avoid-climate-disaster/)

well I guess we are doomed cause China dont care

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2022, 06:33:40 PM

plenty of leaves on the golf course

We need rain, not snow

78 degrees here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2022, 05:07:37 PM

As the world nears its tipping point, what can we expect at COP27? | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3715782-as-the-world-nears-its-tipping-point-what-can-we-expect-at-cop27/)

A consistent message I've posted here for a while it "Get real.".  Countries are not going to meet their commiments.  If the models are about right, we're going to zoom well past 2°C.  Folks keep proclaiming a crisis and saying "throw more money at it", and the result is more meetings, more pledges, more money thrown at it in rather unplanned fashions for obvious reasons, and then molar gnashing.

We're going to hear more of this, I suspect, not less.  And I suspect "we" will somehow manage to throw more money at it with very little to show for it.  I've read estimates about a GROWING market for petroleum well past 2050.  Maybe coal usage will drop some, hopefully.  There is no real plan because it's impossible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 11:34:05 AM

The climate ‘crisis’ isn’t what it used to be | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/11/02/the-climate-crisis-isnt-what-it-used-to-be/#more-29307)

Summary:  The climate “catastrophe” isn’t what it used to be. Circa 2013 with publication of the IPCC AR5 Report, RCP8.5 was regarded as the business-as-usual emissions scenario, with expected warming of 4 to 5 ^oC by 2100. Now there is growing acceptance that RCP8.5 is implausible, and RCP4.5 is arguably the current business-as-usual emissions scenario. Only a few years ago, an emissions trajectory that followed RCP4.5 with 2 to 3 ^oC warming was regarded as climate policy success. As limiting warming to 2 ^oC seems to be in reach (now deemed to be the “threshold of catastrophe”), (https://judithcurry.com/2022/11/02/the-climate-crisis-isnt-what-it-used-to-be/#_edn1) the goal posts were moved in 2018 to reduce the warming target to 1.5 ^oC. Climate catastrophe rhetoric now seems linked to extreme weather events, most of which are difficult to identify any role for human-caused climate change in increasing either their intensity or frequency.
The main stream media is currently awash with articles from prominent journalists on how the global warming threat less than we thought.  Here are some prominent articles:

• NYTimes David Wallace-Wells: Beyond catastrophe: A new climate reality is coming into view. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/climate-change-warming-world.html) 
• WSJ:  Good climate change news is fit to print.  Slowly its percolating into the journalistic mind that recent research is upbeat (https://www.wsj.com/articles/good-climate-change-global-warming-thunberg-fossil-fuels-modeling-carbon-emissions-tax-11667337693)
• NYT Bret Stephens: Yes Greenland’s melting but . . .

David Wallace-Wells is one of the most interesting journalists writing in the climate space.  In 2017, he wrote  a 2017 New York Magazine article titled (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html) “The Uninhabitable Earth”, with subtitle: “Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak—sooner than you think.”  Not long after publication of his book in 2019 entitled The Uninhabitable Earth, David Wallace-Wells made this statement (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/climate-change-worst-case-scenario-now-looks-unrealistic.html): “Anyone, including me, who has built their understanding on what level of warming is likely this century on that RCP8.5 scenario should probably revise that understanding in a less alarmist direction.” DWW scores HUGE number of points with me for quickly adjusting his priors with the growing amount evidence that RCP8.5 is implausible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 11:44:29 AM

The policy implications of all this is enormous.  Unfortunately I suspect that the COP27 will focus too much on emissions reductions (which aren’t working and wont impact the climate in any event), and not enough on supporting development and adaptation for developing countries and most importantly supporting development in Africa by allowing them to benefit from their fossil fuels (other than by selling them to Europe).  With regards to the later, a shout out to Rose Mustiso’s recent Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03475-0) publication; Rose is my favorite African activist and thinker on this topic.

 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on November 03, 2022, 11:57:57 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 11:44:29 AM

The policy implications of all this is enormous.  Unfortunately I suspect that the COP27 will focus too much on emissions reductions (which aren’t working and wont impact the climate in any event), and not enough on supporting development and adaptation for developing countries and most importantly supporting development in Africa by allowing them to benefit from their fossil fuels (other than by selling them to Europe).  With regards to the later, a shout out to Rose Mustiso’s recent Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03475-0) publication; Rose is my favorite African activist and thinker on this topic.

 

well once again using your logic climate change has not affected my life at all so it must not exist

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 12:06:59 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2022, 11:57:57 AM

well once again using your logic climate change has not affected my life at all so it must not exist

That is not my logic at all.  I don't know where you got that presumption.

Plenty of things have not impacted my life and certainly exist.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on November 03, 2022, 01:22:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 12:06:59 PM

That is not my logic at all.  I don't know where you got that presumption.

Plenty of things have not impacted my life and certainly exist.

the fact that your rights are being threatened has not affected your life so you are not concerned so why are you concerned about climate change which also has not affected your life

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 03:22:14 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2022, 01:22:17 PM

the fact that your rights are being threatened has not affected your life so you are not concerned so why are you concerned about climate change whick also has not affected your life

I never said any such thing, at all, ever, nor implied anything remotely akin to that.

And I'm really not that concerned about climate change either, I am more interested in what is likely to happen.  I pretty much agree with this lady who used to be head of the climate science department at Tech.  I find her stuff very interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on November 03, 2022, 03:51:07 PM

Working in the energy sector, rising gas prices have actually helped my career, so apparently they are a good thing?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 03:59:59 PM

They are good for some, bad for most.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on November 03, 2022, 04:21:39 PM

Exactly.  So if climate change hasn't directly impacted you, you should be good with it, I should be voting for higher gas prices

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 04:28:45 PM

Quote from: ELA on November 03, 2022, 04:21:39 PM

Exactly.  So if climate change hasn't directly impacted you, you should be good with it, I should be voting for higher gas prices

I disagree entirely, for obvious reasons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on November 03, 2022, 04:32:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 04:28:45 PM

I disagree entirely, for obvious reasons.

Me too, it was just a counter to an above point

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 04:37:13 PM

The good news is that CC appears now to be less dire than had been predicted (by some).  It could still be not great of course.

The bad news, I think, is we'll still throw money at nonexistent "solutions" that make no difference.

And convene large meetings to talk about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on November 03, 2022, 04:50:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 04:37:13 PM

The good news is that CC appears now to be less dire than had been predicted (by some).  It could still be not great of course.

The bad news, I think, is we'll still throw money at nonexistent "solutions" that make no difference.

And convene large meetings to talk about it.

The sad fact is that although there may be merit for concern over climate change there are forces at play that use the climate change topic for political purposes and as a means to gain control and power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 03, 2022, 09:55:52 PM

https://youtu.be/vvUmhacc2u4?t=515

Time stamped @ about 8:39,Germany tearing down wind mills to expand coal mines :D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2022, 05:01:04 AM

Germany didn't, a company did remove some 20 year old wind mills to enlarge a coal mine (with government approval).  The windmills were nearing the end of their service life, and were smaller than recent ones.

Germany bet big that Russian oil and gas would get them through until they were "all green".  They also have three nuclear plants meant to be shut down on standby in case of need, which they will.  And they are going to use a lot more coal than planned.

Putin gave money to the various "green parties" in Germany to get them hooked.  Most of this is for show.  An expensive absurd show.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on November 04, 2022, 06:14:16 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1588469039180849154?t=FRYFVD87en6JeRXBFI1PEw&s=19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on November 04, 2022, 07:11:43 AM

We've been in a La Nina since 2020.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 04, 2022, 07:37:29 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 04, 2022, 05:01:04 AM

Germany didn't, a company did remove some 20 year old wind mills to enlarge a coal mine (with government approval).  The windmills were nearing the end of their service life, and were smaller than recent ones.

Germany bet big that Russian oil and gas would get them through until they were "all green".  They also have three nuclear plants meant to be shut down on standby in case of need, which they will.  And they are going to use a lot more coal than planned.

Putin gave money to the various "green parties" in Germany to get them hooked.  Most of this is for show.  An expensive absurd show.

This guy does his homework and they are realizing Green Energy is a pipe dream(at least right now) watch what he says.And Putin would stand to make more money thru gas and oil so why would he sabatage his own self interest?Actually he already did that by attacking the Ukraine but that is a different argument.Write in his comment section below and challenge him to debate.Scotty is connected to literally thousands and if you watch him regularly and can turn a wrench and have access to tools you can save some coin. I changed some struts about 7 yrs ago(wouldn't do it again) but followed all his steps/advice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2022, 07:49:11 AM

By funding Green Parties, Putin was able to shut down much of Germany's energy production without Russian gas and oil.  He got them hooked.

Germany banned fracking and shut down most of their nuclear plants and cut way back on coal until lately.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2022, 07:53:14 AM

ERCOT renewable energy: reality check | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/10/31/ercot-renewable-energy-reality-check/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 04, 2022, 08:36:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 04:37:13 PM

The good news is that CC appears now to be less dire than had been predicted (by some).  It could still be not great of course.

The bad news, I think, is we'll still throw money at nonexistent "solutions" that make no difference.

And convene large meetings to talk about it.

In a faraway place, and everyone comes to the meeting on their own private jet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 04, 2022, 08:38:28 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on November 04, 2022, 06:14:16 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1588469039180849154?t=FRYFVD87en6JeRXBFI1PEw&s=19

We're about 15-20" over for the year here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 04, 2022, 09:14:05 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 04, 2022, 07:49:11 AM

By funding Green Parties, Putin was able to shut down much of Germany's energy production without Russian gas and oil.  He got them hooked.

Germany banned fracking and shut down most of their nuclear plants and cut way back on coal until lately.

Show me that Germany has no energy production/alternatives besides by Russia's hand.They were previously but after the Reds got the itch to march i doubt that very much that they stood pat,they are not fools and this is part of that movement ,IMO

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-made-progress-reducing-russian-energy-imports-2022-03-25/

BERLIN, March 25 (Reuters) - Germany has made significant progress towards reducing its exposure to imports of Russian gas, oil and coal since Russia invaded Ukraine, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Friday.

Germany is trying to wean itself off Russian energy in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, but this is an uphill battle after decades of relying on Russia for energy supplies.
Habeck said imports of Russian oil now accounted for 25% of German imports, down from 35% before the invasion, and gas imports have been cut to 40% from 55%. Russian hard coal imports were down to 25% from 50% before the invasion.

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/14/1111473850/germany-rushes-to-decouple-itself-from-russian-gas

Germany rushes to decouple itself from Russian gas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2022, 09:17:16 AM

Germany does have energy alternatives, that is my point.  Production of internal NG and nuclear has been suppressed by the Green movement.

For some reason, they have fallen back on coal significantly.  They COULD have developed internal sources, but didn't, and shut down most nuclear plants.  The idea was to rely on Russian NG and oil to "bridge" to the Green Future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 04, 2022, 09:24:13 AM

Because if they had to they could make fuel out of coal just like the Wehmacht did 80 yrs ago. Regardless none of this indicates that green energy or the Russians is bringing that country to it's knees.Given their icy past I can't see these two governments hooking up and singing Kumaya any time soon.And unlike 1941 the aggressors are the Rooski's or their leader.So the Gerries know where their self preservation lies and it's not moscow or their policies

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2022, 09:34:27 AM

Coal gassification is expensive, and the don't have any plants to do that currently.  It also isn't "green".  The could do it in time, they could also recover their own NG.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 08:58:56 AM

Not really liking this new storm right now.

(https://i.imgur.com/Rs3TWi3.png)

An area of low pressure is developing about 100 miles north of 
Puerto Rico and is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. 

This system is forecast to move northward or 
northwestward further into the southwestern Atlantic today and 
environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional 
development. 

A subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form 
early this week while the system turns westward or 
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. 

Regardless of 
development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, 
gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion 
along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east 
coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during 
the early to middle part of this week.  Interests in those areas 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  
  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

No thank you. Go ahead and head North.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2022, 10:33:01 AM

DES MOINES, Iowa (9/29/2022) -- In celebration of National Clean Energy Week, MidAmerican announced that its Wind PRIME project will be developed at no net cost to customers, continuing its tradition of providing clean energy and maintaining among the lowest electricity rates in the nation.

The project, proposed in January and currently pending approval at the Iowa Utilities Board, would result in significant benefits for MidAmerican’s customers, including:

Affordability – Wind PRIME will be delivered at no net cost to customers and has potential to provide an immediate decrease in bills
Clean energy – the project will allow MidAmerican to deliver renewable energy that exceeds 100% of its Iowa customers’ usage annually
Clean air – Wind PRIME is expected to result in an overall reduction of CO2 by approximately 75% from 2005 levels
Adding clean energy generation – especially at no net cost to customers – is a competitive advantage that no other rate-regulated utility can offer,” said Kathryn Kunert, vice president of economic connections and integration for MidAmerican Energy. “While every customer gets these benefits, we know how much our business community depends on our combination of affordability and verified green energy.” 

Through MidAmerican’s GreenAdvantage program, which applies to all MidAmerican electric customers in Iowa at no cost to them, the company enables every customer to claim a verified renewable energy amount, which in 2021, was 88.5%. With Wind PRIME, that will reach 100% on an annual basis.

“Nearly all members of the Iowa Business Energy Coalition have sustainability goals to decarbonize by the end of the decade to ensure continued success across all markets. Clean energy is a major component of achieving those goals and we appreciate MidAmerican’s focus on renewable energy,” Dustin Miller, IBEC’s Executive Director, said. “We will continue to work in partnership with our utilities on a variety of clean energy strategies for cost competitive energy for Iowa to ensure a bright economic future for our companies and the state.”

Wind PRIME also provides economic benefit to the state of Iowa. MidAmerican estimates that the Wind PRIME project will create more than 1,100 full-time jobs during the construction phase and another 125 full-time positions for ongoing operations and maintenance.

In addition, Wind PRIME will provide an average of $24 million-plus per year in local property tax payments on wind turbines and solar facilities, as well as more than $21 million in annual landowner easement payments.

A recently issued Goss and Associates report sponsored by the Iowa Conservative Energy Forum showed that renewable energy produces billions of dollars of economic impact for Iowa. Wind energy is an incredible resource in our state and with recent volatility in the gas market, our wind fleet continues to produce energy with zero fuel cost, keeping MidAmerican’s rates low and stable for customers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 11:23:05 AM

So, recycling. 

How much of really gets recycled? Circa Y2K it was about 20 percent. I wonder what the numbers look like today.

Secondly...

How much water goes down the drain when we rinse things to be ready for recycling? It's a big number I bet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2022, 11:33:53 AM

Not much gets recycled unless source separated and delivered to the right place, other than aluminum and some glass.  We have two glass bins here and a large "recycle" dumpster into which residents throw bags of trash and mess.

We need an aluminum can bin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 06, 2022, 11:41:50 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 11:23:05 AM

How much water goes down the drain when we rinse things to be ready for recycling? It's a big number I bet.

Never under stood that as isn't the metal/plastic/glass suppose to be getting melted down anyway?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2022, 11:43:47 AM

You really need a clean melt for recycling to work very well, and you need the different plastic kinds separated.  A milk bottle is PE but the cap is PP, and they don't play well together, at least not for any decent application.  Then you have PS and polyurethanes and all that other mess.  Clean PE is nicely recycled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 12:27:28 PM

We do not need this.

(https://i.imgur.com/keBtJr3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 06, 2022, 12:31:39 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 06, 2022, 11:43:47 AM

You really need a clean melt for recycling to work very well, and you need the different plastic kinds separated.  A milk bottle is PE but the cap is PP, and they don't play well together, at least not for any decent application.  Then you have PS and polyurethanes and all that other mess.  Clean PE is nicely recycled.

In our area they throw everything together in residential Green Recycling marked containers.Evidently they sort at the centers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2022, 01:58:43 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on November 06, 2022, 12:31:39 PM

In our area they throw everything together in residential Green Recycling marked containers.Evidently they sort at the centers

They rarely do.  They pick out aluminum and not much else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2022, 01:58:50 PM

A major Atlantic current is at a critical transition point | NOVA | PBS (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/amoc-shutdown-gulf-stream-climate/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1667398004&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1_S6iUsEx2KpDVeiAQJ-LOnLL2l72eNMTRyrMPvu2dFvm3qhVAAk7Z58I)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 06, 2022, 02:08:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 06, 2022, 01:58:43 PM

They rarely do.  They pick out aluminum and not much else.

Really - I'm not sure that is accurate,an old friend said his nephew worked at one of those centers(in between jobs) and he said they indeed sort those out before sending them down the line.Why would the company bother then? a lot of time,attention and all sorts of resources - finances included go into this to be one big charade

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2022, 02:13:27 PM

I'm sure some places are different, I've only seen two in operation.  They paid attention to aluminum and they did pull off some of the larger plastic items and some cardboard.  This is while back.  I was surprised how much of it is pure garbage, food waste, and whatnot in some bag, they don't open bags of anything.  They told us most of it goes to landfill.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on November 06, 2022, 03:05:45 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 12:27:28 PM

We do not need this.

(https://i.imgur.com/keBtJr3.png)

I think there is a good chance this thing will move further east and your area will get 20 to 40 mph winds and some rain

not the best thing but it could have been worse

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2022, 06:35:59 AM

Current climate policies don’t go far enough
Greenhouse gas emissions need to fall almost immediately to put the world on a path to limiting warming to around 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. Under nations’ current policies, warming would rise by about 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

Climate policy and warming projections display the likely range of potential outcomes.
Source: United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report 2022
Credit: Connie Hanzhang Jin/NPR

COP27 just started — here's what is at stake in the global climate negotiations : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1132796190/faq-whats-at-stake-at-the-cop27-global-climate-negotiations)


In short, the world is way off track (https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131687504/heres-how-far-behind-the-world-is-on-reining-in-climate-change) from its goal of cutting the pollution that drives climate change. Collectively, nations have promised to cut their emissions by about 3% by 2030. But the science shows emissions need to fall dramatically faster – 45% by 2030. That's to limit warming to the goal set by the Paris climate agreement: 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That's about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
Most nations aren't even cutting emissions enough to meet the pledges they've already made. So today, the world is heading toward about 5 degrees Fahrenheit of warming by 2100. While a handful of countries are expected to make new, more ambitious emissions pledges at these talks, the countries producing most of the climate pollution aren't expected to make dramatic cutbacks.
Two of the largest emitters, China and India, plan to increase emissions until 2030. They've argued that their growing economies need the support of fossil fuels, as other wealthier countries have historically done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2022, 06:37:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2017, 09:05:09 AM

One issue I see with climate change is nuts and bolts, e.g., how do enough fast enough to make much difference. 


We could implement a shift to nuclear power in 15 years or so for electricity (globally) but that won't happen.  The rate at which more wind and solar can contribute from a very low base is simply not fast enough even if we through money at it.

If we went to zero carbon today, globally, we'd still have significant climate change, according to the various models.  If every country met the Paris targets, the reduction in global temperatures would be rather small, again using the models.

I see politicians signing agreements because that's what they do, but real tangible progress to reducing carbon to me looks like something that won't happen fast enough to "stop" these trends.  The one thing that might intercept and make a difference would be if ITER works and we can somehow developed practicable fusion reactors in a decade, but that also looks unlikely.

My comments from five years ago ....  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2022, 07:46:56 AM

It just goes in circles. Expensive circles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2022, 09:40:30 AM

Blah dee blah blah


https://www.wsj.com/articles/leaders-gather-for-cop27-as-fallout-from-ukraine-war-complicates-climate-talks-11667815777?st=6nn7p549iui64dy&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2022, 11:01:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Ss6bvlg.png)

Hopefully our East coast guys are making preparations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 07, 2022, 11:04:43 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2022, 11:01:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Ss6bvlg.png)

Hopefully our East coast guys are making preparations.

Loading the fridge with water, gas for the generator for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2022, 11:39:45 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 07, 2022, 11:04:43 AM

Loading the fridge with water, gas for the generator for sure.

Do you have a whole house unit?

We did. Lasted 8 days, but we needed 11 days. We found a 6.5KW portable Generac somehow, and that pushed us through.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2022, 11:59:31 AM

UN chief: ‘We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/3723070-un-chief-we-are-on-a-highway-to-climate-hell-with-our-foot-on-the-accelerator/)

I think this sort of messaging is all wrong and likely to have contrary results.  A lot of folks are going to just shrug it off.  Life goes on.

Contrast this with presenting at least the outline of a plan, a realistic plan, with cost estimates, climate estimates, timing, and enablement.  They don't do this because they can't.  They simply can't.  So, they cry and whine a lot about how bad it all is.

They are like kids.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 07, 2022, 12:14:22 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2022, 11:39:45 AM

Do you have a whole house unit?

We did. Lasted 8 days, but we needed 11 days. We found a 6.5KW portable Generac somehow, and that pushed us through.

No but is big enough to run the main AC, the fridge and a few lights.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 07, 2022, 01:40:15 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2022, 11:39:45 AM

Do you have a whole house unit?

We did. Lasted 8 days, but we needed 11 days. We found a 6.5KW portable Generac somehow, and that pushed us through.

Neighbor just last year had one installed that runs on NG

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 06:30:16 AM

Winds already nuts.  Hope it stays a tropical storm. That blue dot is us 😬

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 07:31:54 AM

Do you have impact windows? If not, shutters at least?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 07:32:28 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on November 07, 2022, 01:40:15 PM

Neighbor just last year had one installed that runs on NG

No gas here, so we had to bury a propane tank.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 08:18:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 07:31:54 AM

Do you have impact windows? If not, shutters at least?

Thankfully the guy who built the house I live in built it to withstand a direct hit from a category five.  He even built it on a 6 foot stemwall so I’m extremely safe from flooding even though I live right by the intercoastal.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 08:22:33 AM

What is your elevation?

We're on pretty high ground here and just took a Cat 5. Feel relieved about that, for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on November 08, 2022, 08:27:07 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 08:18:19 AM

Thankfully the guy who built the house I live in built it to withstand a direct hit from a category five.  He even built it on a 6 foot stemwall so I’m extremely safe from flooding even though I live right by the intercoastal. 

Hopefully this storm does not gain more strength and you come through it well. Be safe and keep us updated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 10:17:57 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 06:30:16 AM

Winds already nuts.  Hope it stays a tropical storm. That blue dot is us 😬

They keep pushing this thing North, which is great for you as you won't be on the big surge side.


(https://i.imgur.com/jpuKmBO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 10:20:11 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 10:17:57 AM

They keep pushing this thing North, which is great for you as you won't be on the big surge side.


(https://i.imgur.com/jpuKmBO.png)

Yes- they just upgraded to hurricane

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 10:37:48 AM

Any chance it could fizzle a bit before the landfall? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 10:46:04 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 10:37:48 AM

Any chance it could fizzle a bit before the landfall?

Possible.  But it seems to be picking steam 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 08, 2022, 11:06:08 AM

Good Luck to you and everyone else hope it takes spins out in the Ocean

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 12:09:00 PM

Where is fearless when you need him?

Fearless- dude, I need a SLICE.  (Hurricane Path)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2022, 12:15:56 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 12:09:00 PM

Where is fearless when you need him?

Fearless- dude, I need a SLICE.  (Hurricane Path)

He wasn't there for me either. Unreliable is he.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 08, 2022, 10:56:26 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8a364j_byI

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 09, 2022, 09:17:05 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 08, 2022, 12:09:00 PM

Where is fearless when you need him?

Fearless- dude, I need a SLICE.  (Hurricane Path)

I prefer a high draw

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 09, 2022, 12:58:21 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 09, 2022, 09:17:05 AM

I prefer a high draw

I would take that right now. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 09, 2022, 08:18:47 PM

When that big one hits- 9:44 pm ETA- I will get you a vid if possible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 09, 2022, 08:20:42 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/4BBUbvg.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 05:42:41 AM

Ended up going more to the North, which is good for Miami on up to WPB. Also good for over here.

It's a little windy right now (15-20) but nothing like Ian (155+).

I figured out why Ian wasn't called a Cat 5 (it has been referred to as a Cat 4.9).

It is a law in Florida that insurance companies must waive all deductibles for a Cat 5. :96:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 05:59:24 AM

Out internet provider is based in West Palm Beach. Service just went down. Hotspot it is - again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on November 10, 2022, 07:48:17 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 05:42:41 AM

Ended up going more to the North, which is good for Miami on up to WPB. Also good for over here.

It's a little windy right now (15-20) but nothing like Ian (155+).

I figured out why Ian wasn't called a Cat 5 (it has been referred to as a Cat 4.9).

It is a law in Florida that insurance companies must waive all deductibles for a Cat 5. :96:

Yeah I read about that a month or so ago.

My son was stationed a Tyndall AFB when hurricane Michael hit Panama City. According to news reports, that was the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in the US. However, it was listed as a Cat 4 for months. After most of the insurance claims were settled, they upgrade it to a 5. But it was too late for people to recover their deductables from their ins companies. What a scam. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 07:54:00 AM

Ian will get the ratings bump. Definitely a 5* storm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2022, 09:29:16 AM

insurance companies suck

but they're good at making money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 02:36:42 PM

So that storm is gone. Pretty much a nothingburger for us in SWFL. And that's what we needed. Nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on November 10, 2022, 04:07:26 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 07:54:00 AM

Ian will get the ratings bump. Definitely a 5* storm.

I dont understand how Fla Ins companies can raise their rates because a hurricane hit

They hit every year in Fla and this should already be baked in the cake

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 04:13:01 PM

There is legislation on the table to stop this.

Part of the problem we have is that all of the big boys have pulled out and will only insure houses built after 2004, when the codes changed.

My problem with this is that even though my house was built prior, it is fully up to date with today's hurricane codes. Not much I can do about it at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 11, 2022, 06:39:28 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/350TioD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 11, 2022, 08:24:19 AM

We are getting remnants of this along with the western winter storm headed this way.All set to meet up over this area,70 yesterday calling for snow Sunday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 11, 2022, 08:56:10 AM

We are still getting light rain from the outer bands. It wasn't too powerful, but that was a huge storm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2022, 09:24:38 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 11, 2022, 06:39:28 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/350TioD.png)

I wish it would make it to the "CITY" in the extreme NW corner of the map.
That is Sewer City - we need rain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2022, 11:14:14 AM

Unconscionable': Oil expert slams some Midwest gas stations for keeping prices high as costs plummet

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/unconscionable-oil-expert-slams-some-midwest-gas-stations-for-keeping-prices-high-as-costs-plummet/ar-AA13XPC6?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6cb526e9024547aaac30145b8e000d78 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/unconscionable-oil-expert-slams-some-midwest-gas-stations-for-keeping-prices-high-as-costs-plummet/ar-AA13XPC6?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6cb526e9024547aaac30145b8e000d78)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2022, 05:37:56 PM

Glacier saga | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2022/11/10/glacier-saga/#more-29342)

Nothing is simple when it comes to understanding the causes of climate change impacts.  The key to understanding is to look at the longest data records available, and try to interpret the causes of the historical and paleo variability.  Once you understand the natural variability, you aren’t so prone to attributing everything to fossil-fueled warming and making naïve predictions of the future.  And once you understand weather variability and extremes, you won’t be so enthusiastic about renewable energy.

I hope that this little exposition helps Reilly Neill and the real scientists of Montana understand the causes of the recent variations in Montana’s glaciers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2022, 06:00:59 PM

Walker, who survived the initial election to make it this far in spite of myriad scandals, bizarre statements, and outright lies, continues to say strange things about the environment as part of his push to get Georgia’s voters to consider him once more.

The former Georgia Bulldogs star spoke to supporters over the weekend, saying that the United States is not ready for environmentally friendly policies such as the Green New Deal and that we need to continue to buy “gas-guzzling cars.”

“If we was ready for the green agenda, I’d raise my hand right now. But we’re not ready right now. So don’t let them fool you like this is a new agenda. This is not a new agenda,” Walker said at a campaign stop in Peachtree City. “We’re not prepared. We’re not ready right now. What we need to do is keep having those gas-guzzling cars, ’cause we got the good emissions under those cars. We’re doing the best thing that we can.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 14, 2022, 06:24:40 PM

Winter moved in late Sat. - early Sun. got close to an inch nothing in other areas.31 Tonite rain/sleet/snow sporadically the rest of the week.Colder week end.Seasonal high is low 50's so nowhere close - global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2022, 06:25:40 PM

enjoy!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 14, 2022, 06:26:25 PM

the gang getting the orange topflites out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2022, 09:39:53 AM

Incoherent energy policy worsens the inflation outlook | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3730317-incoherent-energy-policy-worsens-the-inflation-outlook/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2022, 12:41:41 PM

Making Truck Stops into EV Charging Hubs Will Be Like Powering a Small Town (caranddriver.com) (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a41970523/truck-stops-energy-cost-electric-vehicles/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&utm_medium=social-media&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1zqMG4IGOsbOYAxaEYXORzc_kdgHdAySFp7LZVlIDU3d12AcN88MuK0dc)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2022, 06:31:41 AM

My weather app says it's colder here this AM than in NYC, Boston, or Cincy, 31°F.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2022, 07:31:28 AM

Ocean in the N.E. still keeping them a bit warmer,lake does that to some effect until it starts to freeze over as it's done 3 x in the last decade.Then old man winter starts kicking "A" and taking names

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2022, 07:33:42 AM

Cincy doesn't have much lake effect on anything.  I think they recorded the coldest official T ever in Ohio in 1977.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2022, 08:34:48 AM

nothing to be proud of

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2022, 08:37:56 AM

Neither is Skyline chili but he's sharing so be nice

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2022, 08:39:53 AM

electricityMap is a live visualization of where your electricity comes from and how much CO2 was emitted to produce it.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map (https://app.electricitymaps.com/map)

I must be in the Southwest Power pool

need state lines or a few cities to help with locations

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2022, 08:41:33 AM

Why do you need help with your location,you're not into the schooners just yet are you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2022, 08:48:32 AM

doesn't have landmarks such as bars or nuttin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2022, 09:01:14 AM

57 degrees right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2022, 09:12:36 AM

10 here

crisp!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2022, 09:13:03 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2022, 09:01:14 AM

57 degrees right now.

Funny my mercury reads 30 deg.,dafuq.Time for the orange top flites FF,no one is around hit the course and take a few wacks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2022, 11:32:12 AM

Global climate conference closes with climate damage compensation deal | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3743761-global-climate-conference-closes-with-climate-damage-compensation-deal/)

This reminds me of work.  When faced with a truly serious issue or challenge, some VP would appoint a committee which would have meeting after meeting and talk about it and write innumerable memos with "plans", few if any of which ever happened because they were silly.  

This group reaches some agreement which is entirely unenforceable.  At least some folks are realizing the 1.5°C goal is ridiculous.  My GUESS is all this has been overblown to a degree (or two) and in a decade plus, they will claim they won the battle even though CO2 levels continued to rise but the models were wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2022, 12:19:52 PM

Biden grants PG&E $1 billion to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/21/biden-grants-pge-1-billion-to-keep-diablo-canyon-nuclear-plant-open.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2022, 06:31:34 AM

Uncertainties about climate compensation fund trigger skepticism | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3745628-uncertainties-about-climate-compensation-fund-trigger-skepticism/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on November 22, 2022, 07:02:32 AM

I'm still a skeptic of human driven global warming.  Yes, carbon dioxide levels are going up but I'm not convinced that it is entirely due to fossil fuel combustion.  Yes, I am aware of the isotopic carbon argument C12 and C13 enrichment relative to C14 because fossil fuels are old carbon and the C14 has decayed out.  The problem I have with that is the assumption that fossil fuels are the only source of old carbon entering in the atmosphere.

These climate treaties and whatnot have always been about the transfer of wealth from rich to poor nations. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2022, 07:34:27 AM

I don't know of any other major source of old carbon in the CO2.  Volcanoes produce some, but comparatively little.  We know fairly accurately the amount of fossil fuel being burned in a year and how much CO2 that produces.  The CO2 "sinks" are less well quantified, the main one is the ocean.

And of course the rise in CO2 corresponds to the rise in burning FFs pretty well over time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 11, 2022, 10:48:53 PM

The Department of Energy plans to announce Tuesday that scientists have been able for the first time to produce a fusion reaction that creates a net energy gain — a major milestone in the decades-long, multibillion dollar quest to develop a technology that provides unlimited, cheap, clean power.

The aim of fusion research is to replicate the nuclear reaction through which energy is created on the sun. It is a “holy grail” of carbon-free power that scientists have been chasing since the 1950s. It is still at least a decade — maybe decades — away from commercial use, but the latest development is likely to be touted by the Biden administration as an affirmation of a massive investment by the government over the years.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-s-to-announce-fusion-energy-breakthrough/ar-AA15ahiG?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=4773b43501c64709b74b196bcd193c44 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-s-to-announce-fusion-energy-breakthrough/ar-AA15ahiG?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=4773b43501c64709b74b196bcd193c44)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2022, 02:12:32 PM

Small modular reactors, or SMRs, are in the news a lot lately. These innovative nuclear powerhouses and their smaller cousins, microreactors, are being touted as not only an important potential source of carbon-free power, but a promising bridge to facilitate the nation’s ongoing transition away from fossil-fuel based generation.


As their name suggests, SMRs are smaller than traditional nuclear power plants and contain new technologies that make them scalable, safer to operate, and potentially easier and cheaper to site and deploy. But are they capable of delivering on their many promises from a technological and financial standpoint, and how long will it take until we could realistically expect these devices to be added to the grid?

To learn more, we’re joined by Dan Walsh, NRECA’s senior power supply and generation director, and Travis Million, CEO of Copper Valley Electric Association, which has been working hard to bring a microreactor to its Alaska territory.

Listen to the episode below:


https://www.electric.coop/along-those-lines-co-ops-explore-small-modular-nuclear-reactors?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&utm_campaign=newsletter (https://www.electric.coop/along-those-lines-co-ops-explore-small-modular-nuclear-reactors?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&utm_campaign=newsletter)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on December 15, 2022, 02:38:46 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 11, 2022, 10:48:53 PM

The Department of Energy plans to announce Tuesday that scientists have been able for the first time to produce a fusion reaction that creates a net energy gain — a major milestone in the decades-long, multibillion dollar quest to develop a technology that provides unlimited, cheap, clean power.

The aim of fusion research is to replicate the nuclear reaction through which energy is created on the sun. It is a “holy grail” of carbon-free power that scientists have been chasing since the 1950s. It is still at least a decade — maybe decades — away from commercial use, but the latest development is likely to be touted by the Biden administration as an affirmation of a massive investment by the government over the years.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-s-to-announce-fusion-energy-breakthrough/ar-AA15ahiG?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=4773b43501c64709b74b196bcd193c44 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-s-to-announce-fusion-energy-breakthrough/ar-AA15ahiG?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=4773b43501c64709b74b196bcd193c44)

This is massive news.  It will be annoying because the Biden administration will claim it unjustifiably, and the big oil lobbyists on the right will downplay it, but it's nice to know that sometimes this country can still create, and not just move money around

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2022, 02:40:18 PM

Quote from: ELA on December 15, 2022, 02:38:46 PM

This is massive news.  It will be annoying because the Biden administration will claim it unjustifiably, and the big oil lobbyists on the right will downplay it, but it's nice to know that sometimes this country can still create, and not just move money around

I doubt Big Oil cares about this as this would not compete with oil directly or much indirectly.  I read several summaries and it's not what I'd call a breakthrough, it's really just a rather small advance and commercial power remains decades off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2022, 03:57:43 PM

The atmosphere doesn’t negotiate | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3776749-the-atmosphere-doesnt-negotiate/)

Yet another vague pointless plea for something to be done ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on December 15, 2022, 04:05:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 15, 2022, 02:40:18 PM

I doubt Big Oil cares about this as this would not compete with oil directly or much indirectly.  I read several summaries and it's not what I'd call a breakthrough, it's really just a rather small advance and commercial power remains decades off.

Sure, but the fact that we are making advances at all, in the face of corporate money (which is a disproportionate amount of research money now, compared to a generation ago), is a good thing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2022, 04:16:23 PM

yup, I have my fingers crossed for any and all breakthroughs in technology

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on December 15, 2022, 04:35:42 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2022, 04:16:23 PM

yup, I have my fingers crossed for any and all breakthroughs in technology

And as long as China respects our IP, we are golden

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2022, 04:59:08 PM

Quote from: ELA on December 15, 2022, 04:05:24 PM

Sure, but the fact that we are making advances at all, in the face of corporate money (which is a disproportionate amount of research money now, compared to a generation ago), is a good thing. 

I don't think that is the case, I am pretty sure government spending on "R&D" dwarfs what private companies spend, at least it was when I was there.  The project linked below is enormous and takes a second approach to fusion.

Cost Skyrockets for United States' Share of ITER Fusion Project | Science | AAAS

$ (https://www.science.org/content/article/cost-skyrockets-united-states-share-iter-fusion-project)25 billion for this and rising.  And quite a few think it's the wrong approach.  If it succeeds to the max, it MIGHT presage an actual commercial power reactor around 2075.

I also know that announcements of some success often are intended solely to gain funding from Congress.  So, I tend to be circumspect about such things.  Hopefully I'm wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2022, 11:43:53 AM

Fusion breakthrough will lead to investments, but its use won’t come overnight  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3777158-fusion-breakthrough-will-lead-to-investments-but-its-use-wont-come-overnight/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2022, 12:23:11 PM

Quote from: ELA on December 15, 2022, 04:35:42 PM

And as long as China respects our IP, we are golden

They don't and they won't.

It'll be up to us, to segregate sensitive IP from them.  We've done a terrible job of this over the past 3 decades but some American corporations are finally starting to get it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2022, 12:24:21 PM

Wind farm will need to shut down five months a year to protect parrots (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/wind-farm-will-need-to-shut-down-five-months-a-year-to-protect-parrots.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2022, 12:27:38 PM

As far as "IP" is concerned, for one thing, a US patent only lasts 20 years from date of filing.  And, you'd need to file another application in China.  And, if granted, then you'd have to go after anyone you think is infringing .... in Chinese courts.  There are other kinds of IP of course, but folks often think of patents first.

One problem with projects with long development times, and I was involved in one, you file some early patent applications and then it takes 15 years to bring it to market, so you only get five years exclusivity anyway.  You can prolong this a bit with further patents (selection inventions) but they are necessarily more narrow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2022, 12:32:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 16, 2022, 12:27:38 PM

As far as "IP" is concerned, for one thing, a US patent only lasts 20 years from date of filing.  And, you'd need to file another application in China.  And, if granted, then you'd have to go after anyone you think is infringing .... in Chinese courts.  There are other kinds of IP of course, but folks often think of patents first.

One problem with projects with long development times, and I was involved in one, you file some early patent applications and then it takes 15 years to bring it to market, so you only get five years exclusivity anyway.  You can prolong this a bit with further patents (selection inventions) but they are necessarily more narrow.

None of that really matters because the Chinese steal your inventions the moment they see them come across their assembly lines.  As I said, it's up to US corporations to protect against that, and the only real way to do so, is never manufacture anything in China.  At least, don't manufacture anything you want to keep secure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2022, 12:44:36 PM

so, if it's manufactured in Mexico or Vietnam the Chinese can't get their grubby little paws on it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2022, 12:48:09 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 16, 2022, 12:44:36 PM

so, if it's manufactured in Mexico or Vietnam the Chinese can't get their grubby little paws on it?

Depends. Chinese ODM Foxconn has a massive presence in Mexico.  So do several others.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2022, 12:59:23 PM

I'm not sure what critical aspects of a commercial fusion power plant could be kept secret.  Certainly, some details could be trade secrets, but foreign engineers would figure out ways to do things even if they aren't quite as good.

The basic design would be public knowledge.  The ITER project is an international consortium now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2022, 01:25:34 PM

What is High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU)? | Department of Energy (https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-high-assay-low-enriched-uranium-haleu)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2022, 01:37:32 PM

I can think of numerous manufactured elements and processes that would be protected as patents or trade secrets.  Sure, someone can figure out other ways to do the same things.  And it is appropriate to force them to expend their resources in doing so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2022, 02:54:10 PM

humankind is trying to save the ever loving planet here!

For God's sake!

can't we all work together for the common good???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 17, 2022, 09:43:59 AM

This year, in spite of so many nations and large states swearing off fossil fuels — in spite of so many treaties and so many climate agreements — the world will consume more coal than it ever has in its history. According to the International Energy Agency, the world will burn more than 8 billion tons of coal in 2022 for the first time in human history. A major reason for coal's resurgence is the constricted supply and high price of natural gas, thanks to the war in Ukraine.

Natural gas emits only half as much carbon dioxide per unit of energy as coal does. This is why fracking was able to reduce U.S. energy sector carbon emissions by more than 23% between 2005 and 2020.

All of these facts together form a very important piece of context for all of the climate activism and the climate agreements and treaties: it has all been in vain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 17, 2022, 11:14:54 AM

looks like Houston will have its first freeze of the year next Friday

supposed to get in low 20s for a few days and then get above freezing and around we go

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 17, 2022, 11:18:06 AM

Yeah, we're headed into the teens here, 14°F next Friday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 17, 2022, 11:22:22 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 17, 2022, 11:14:54 AM

looks like Houston will have its first freeze of the year next Friday

supposed to get in low 20s for a few days and then get above freezing and around we go

It's going to stay below freezing for multiple days?

I haven't seen that for Austin weather, we're supposed to get below freezing overnight and then above during the days.  Friday high is 34, it's the only one that is close to freezing, so I guess if the forecast is off a bit it might stay below freezing for 30 hours or so?

(https://i.imgur.com/6Umbj4K.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 17, 2022, 11:26:33 AM

Quote from: utee94 on December 17, 2022, 11:22:22 AM

It's going to stay below freezing for multiple days?

I haven't seen that for Austin weather, we're supposed to get below freezing overnight and then above during the days.  Friday high is 34, it's the only one that is close to freezing, so I guess if the forecast is off a bit it might stay below freezing for 30 hours or so?

(https://i.imgur.com/6Umbj4K.png)

no I didnt mean it would stay freezing all day

just that for several days in a row we will see the temp drop below freezing thats all

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 17, 2022, 11:28:33 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 17, 2022, 11:26:33 AM

no I didnt mean it would stay freezing all day

just that for several days in a row we will see the temp drop below freezing thats all

Gotcha

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 17, 2022, 11:32:26 AM

I'm bringing that cold shit with me when I come to Texas next week to visit my brother for Christmas

You're welcome!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 17, 2022, 11:34:53 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 17, 2022, 11:32:26 AM

I'm bringing that cold shit with me when I come to Texas next week to visit my brother for Christmas

You're welcome!

 I don't mind a little cold right around Christmas.

Last year it hit 80 at my house on Christmas day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 17, 2022, 11:36:02 AM

damn skippy

I don't mind a little snow around Christmas

brew up a pot of Chili

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 17, 2022, 11:37:12 AM

I can't recall ever having snow at Christmas in Austin.

It did snow on my birthday in early December a few years back, but only stuck for a half-day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 17, 2022, 11:39:15 AM

Quote from: utee94 on December 17, 2022, 11:37:12 AM

I can't recall ever having snow at Christmas in Austin.

It did snow on my birthday in early December a few years back, but only stuck for a half-day.

It snowed Christmas eve here in the early 2000s not sure of the year 2004 or 2005

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 17, 2022, 11:41:20 AM

In Houston the average day of the last freeze is Feb 20th so our winter this year will be 59 days long :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 17, 2022, 11:44:05 AM

I don't need this shit, no matter the date

(https://i.imgur.com/REmSNYQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2022, 03:56:30 PM

Porsche and several partners have started production of a climate neutral "e-fuel" aimed at replacing gasoline in vehicles with traditional internal combustion engines.

The German automaker, owned by Volkswagen, said Tuesday that a pilot plant in Chile started commercial production of the alternative fuel. By mid-decade, Porsche is planning to produce millions of gallons of the e-fuel.


E-fuel is made from water and carbon dioxide using wind energy to enable the nearly CO2-neutral operation of petrol engines.

In the pilot phase, the company expects to produce around 130,000 liters (34,342 U.S. gallons) of the e-fuel. Plans are to expand that to about 55 million liters (14.5 million U.S. gallons) by mid-decade, and around 550 million liters (145.3 million U.S. gallons) roughly two years later.

The Chilean plant was initially announced with Porsche in late 2020, when the automaker said it would invest $24 million in the development of the plant and e-fuels. Partners include Chilean operating company Highly Innovative Fuels, Siemens' renewable energy unit and others.

Officials say e-fuels can act like gasoline, allowing vehicle owners a more environmentally friendly way to drive. They could also use the same fueling infrastructure as gas, compared with the billions of dollars in investments needed to build a network of charging stations for electric vehicles.

Production of such a fuel would allow Porsche and others a way to continue producing vehicles such as Porsche's iconic 911 sports car with a traditional engine alongside, or rather than, a new electric model. While electric vehicles can offer outstanding performance, their driving dynamics differ from traditional engines.

Porsche officials celebrated the beginning of the e-fuel production with the filling of a Porsche 911 with the first synthetic fuel produced at the site.

"The potential of eFuels is huge. There are currently more than 1.3 billion vehicles with combustion engines worldwide. Many of these will be on the roads for decades to come, and eFuels offer the owners of existing cars a nearly carbon-neutral alternative," Michael Steiner, Porsche's director of research and development, said in a release.

Steiner and others reiterated Tuesday that the development of the fuel does not change the company's plans to have 80% of its lineup consist of EVs by 2030.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2022, 04:00:36 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 17, 2022, 11:44:05 AM

I don't need this shit, no matter the date

(https://i.imgur.com/REmSNYQ.png)

Yeah that's a bunch of bulljive.

Don't worry, I'm not moving there.  You're welcome for my support.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2022, 04:05:07 PM

the forecast for Texas for those days isn't great, but it's WAY better

manageable 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2022, 04:06:37 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 20, 2022, 04:05:07 PM

the forecast for Texas for those days isn't great, but it's WAY better

manageable

Yeah you're cursing us with some foul stuff, too.  But better than what you posted.

Last year on Christmas Day it hit 80 degrees at my house.  Now THAT is what I call, legit Christmas weather!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2022, 04:10:11 PM

Not getting out of the 50's for Christmas Eve and Day this year.

F the Canadians and their air masses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2022, 04:11:34 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/jkmpcgQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2022, 04:46:33 PM

Quote from: utee94 on December 20, 2022, 04:06:37 PM

Yeah you're cursing us with some foul stuff, too.  But better than what you posted.

Last year on Christmas Day it hit 80 degrees at my house.  Now THAT is what I call, legit Christmas weather!

maybe not 80, but bringing golf shorts for later in the week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2022, 04:48:02 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2022, 04:10:11 PM

Not getting out of the 50's for Christmas Eve and Day this year.

F the Canadians and their air masses.

sorry Badge
I wanted to bring the Texans a little Christmas weather from NW Iowa(the great white north)

didn't mean for it to make it all the way to your neck of the woods (swamp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 21, 2022, 06:32:41 PM

I hopw thw WEATHER in North Port is good in January ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2022, 06:34:22 AM

Should be.

(https://i.imgur.com/btWSwqD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 22, 2022, 09:22:49 AM

Well hear comes Fearless' winter weather curse.  We're going to hit our high temp of ~52 at 10 AM, and then drop rapidly to below freezing by 5 PM.

(https://i.imgur.com/S4wJqNp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2022, 10:51:12 AM

Speak for yourself.  I demand cold weather for Christmas and I so rarely get it.  

I just hope when this system hits us Texas' power grid is better prepared than it was in Jan. '21.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 22, 2022, 11:19:31 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2022, 10:51:12 AM

Speak for yourself.  I demand cold weather for Christmas and I so rarely get it. 

I just hope when this system hits us Texas' power grid is better prepared than it was in Jan. '21. 

I'm not sure why people keep bringing this up.  In 2021, the entire state was below freezing for a minimum of 3 days.  At my house in Austin, it stayed below freezing for 8 consecutive days.  That has never ever happened before, in the entire recorded history of weather in this state.  I'll be surprised if it ever happens again.

This cold snap, it might be below freezing for 30 hours in my part of the state, which is quite common and happens every single year, with no issues.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2022, 11:22:57 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2022, 10:51:12 AM

Speak for yourself.  I demand cold weather for Christmas and I so rarely get it. 

I just hope when this system hits us Texas' power grid is better prepared than it was in Jan. '21. 

this storm is not anywhere near as bad as we got 2 years ago

in Houston we will have freezing weather for maybe 24 hours and then it will ebb and flow above and below freezing for another 48 hours

in the bad one we had a hard freeze for 3 straight days

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2022, 11:25:47 AM

I bring it up because the reasons why the grid wasn't prepared annoy me.  

We're getting well below freezing for several days here, but at night.  It will warm up to the 40's in the daytime, so says the forecast.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 22, 2022, 11:35:03 AM

Drifting down below freezing at night, and back above freezing during the say, is a common state for winter in Texico.  That's nothing new, it's thoroughly expected.

Heck, we're going to be in the 60s by next Tuesday and the 70s for New Year's Eve.

Beyond that, the ground is still quite warm because it's early in the season.  Feb 2021 was the END of the winter season so the ground was much colder already, which reinforced the problems occurring from the freeze.

I guess people have PTSD about 2021, but that was a once-in-ten-generations kind of event, and this one isn't shaping up to be anything like that.

I just think it's silly to overreact, and for the most part people I hear doing all of their hand-wringing over it, have a political motivation for doing so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2022, 11:51:31 AM

I don't think I'm overreacting or hand-wringing.  Just noting that I hope a lot of people don't have the troubles they had then.  

And it's 'notable' to me because while we do get below freezing a couple of nights every year here, we don't get down into the teens often....that is irregular.  Thus I find myself hoping nothing similar occurs.  We fared just fine last time.  We never lost power and I don't think it would've been a big deal if we had, heating-wise.  I have some in-laws in North Texas who didn't fare as well, so I hope nobody has a similar experience.  

At any rate, it doesn't hurt to be prepared for oddball circumstances, no matter how unlikely you or I think they are.  Texas can do  better for itself by simply not subsidizing a bunch of green energy that produces relatively little power for the investment.  Just allocating the current amount of money spent into more effective energy sources would've seen the state through that last storm.  My handwringing comes from my belief that the idgits in Austin didn't learn anything from that experience.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 22, 2022, 02:10:18 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2022, 11:51:31 AM

I don't think I'm overreacting or hand-wringing.  Just noting that I hope a lot of people don't have the troubles they had then. 

And it's 'notable' to me because while we do get below freezing a couple of nights every year here, we don't get down into the teens often....that is irregular.  Thus I find myself hoping nothing similar occurs.  We fared just fine last time.  We never lost power and I don't think it would've been a big deal if we had, heating-wise.  I have some in-laws in North Texas who didn't fare as well, so I hope nobody has a similar experience. 

At any rate, it doesn't hurt to be prepared for oddball circumstances, no matter how unlikely you or I think they are.  Texas can do  better for itself by simply not subsidizing a bunch of green energy that produces relatively little power for the investment.  Just allocating the current amount of money spent into more effective energy sources would've seen the state through that last storm.  My handwringing comes from my belief that the idgits in Austin didn't learn anything from that experience. 

The current leadership would be glad to ditch all renewables.

And their opposition blames the market-based approach along with everything other than renewables.

As always the truths and solutions are likely somewhere in the middle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 23, 2022, 07:03:49 AM

19 F here in the ATL 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2022, 07:32:12 AM

67 here, on the way up to 75, but that front is coming like a freight train.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 23, 2022, 07:57:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 23, 2022, 07:03:49 AM

19 F here in the ATL

15 F in Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2022, 08:24:28 AM

42 last nite just after 11pm 2 deg right now,a little bit of wind,oh and some snow dusting to 1"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2022, 08:25:58 AM

Quote from: utee94 on December 22, 2022, 09:22:49 AM

Well hear comes Fearless' winter weather curse.  We're going to hit our high temp of ~52 at 10 AM, and then drop rapidly to below freezing by 5 PM.

(https://i.imgur.com/S4wJqNp.png)

Golfing weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2022, 09:49:44 AM

negative 12 here with 40mph winds

planning a trip to Top Golf in Fort Worth on Tuesday and a round of real golf at Diamond Oaks CC on Thursday the 29th.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2022, 09:59:22 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/sOzoKKv.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2022, 09:59:52 AM

-2 now but up to +4 by 11 am,grab the sunblock and Beam

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 23, 2022, 11:23:39 AM

wind (as usual) is the only part of this that is annoying and it is nasty, no doubt about it.     It is delicious to see these weather people pretend they never made such big touts for accumulation.     Well,   its really about the blowing wind and drifting now.    They really do need to stop make snow touts the way local news tells the viewer how many years in prison the local perp faces for stealing packages.     Nobody's getting 80 years for this crime and we're not going to see 12 inches, or 8 or 6 or even 4.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2022, 11:33:07 AM

up to 8 below here

time to clear the driveway

very little snow, but I don't like making tracks on the driveway

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2022, 11:34:59 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on December 23, 2022, 11:23:39 AM

wind (as usual) is the only part of this that is annoying and it is nasty, no doubt about it.    It is delicious to see these weather people pretend they never made such big touts for accumulation.    Well,  its really about the blowing wind and drifting now.    They really do need to stop make snow touts the way local news tells the viewer how many years in prison the local perp faces for stealing packages.    Nobody's getting 80 years for this crime and we're not going to see 12 inches, or 8 or 6 or even 4.

Yeah, same in Chicago. My brother told me the other day they were gonna get 12-18 inches. They got maybe TWO.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 23, 2022, 11:38:50 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2022, 11:34:59 AM

Yeah, same in Chicago. My brother told me the other day they were gonna get 12-18 inches. They got maybe TWO.

thats one of the things that saved a lot of problems with this storm 

not that much moisture 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 23, 2022, 11:39:46 AM

tracks on a driveway suck.   particularly if you're due for several days sub freezing.    you now have an ice track.   My driveway has 0 snow on about 10% of the surface and about 3 inches across 5% of it.    I'm going to broom it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2022, 11:59:43 AM

Just got in my freakin' fingers are stinging like hell.Had to take my gloves off to primer and choke the '79 TORO.Took about twenty minutes remove the plug and a shot of starting fluid (no electric start). Maybe 15-20 minutes to do the drive as there was 2-3 ft in areas while most was down to the pavement.Had to spread some birdseed all around try to help them out when bad like this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2022, 12:00:23 PM

mine was just more than broom level

It's clear now
the windchill is no joke

I was only out there about 12 minutes

started both vehicles in the attached garage

6 above in the garage - no wind - feels decent

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2022, 12:06:25 PM

still minus 2 here no problems layering and a wool scarf - just don't keep your gloves off for long......like 30 seconds

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 23, 2022, 01:00:29 PM

all the reasons why I dont live up north

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 23, 2022, 01:09:15 PM

My HVAC has been running nonstop, the downstairs one anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2022, 01:17:52 PM

The front came in. Windy and chilly now. F'ing Canadians. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on December 23, 2022, 03:50:11 PM

https://twitter.com/TeaStormChaser/status/1606363211875360768?t=_K2FTsJLb7Z4zgv8salyfA&s=19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 23, 2022, 03:50:30 PM

Put one of these in your garage. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2022, 04:30:02 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on December 23, 2022, 03:50:30 PM

Put one of these in your garage. 

I need something like that. Must blow cold air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 23, 2022, 04:44:11 PM

(https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/acttemp_1280x720.jpg?crop=16:9&width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60)

Yeah, Big Ten country is definitely in that temperature range where you need a third winter sock for your dong. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2022, 05:25:51 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on December 23, 2022, 03:50:11 PM

https://twitter.com/TeaStormChaser/status/1606363211875360768?t=_K2FTsJLb7Z4zgv8salyfA&s=19

Too bad John Kerry and his EV aren't buried in there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2022, 05:31:40 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/vaKDlSy.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 23, 2022, 05:38:43 PM

I set mine for low 50s in garage, and with drains in the garage floor, super easy to keep it clean and cozy through the winter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2022, 07:06:39 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on December 23, 2022, 04:44:11 PM

[img width=343.455 height=281]https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/acttemp_1280x720.jpg?crop=16:9&width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60[/img]

Yeah, Big Ten country is definitely in that temperature range where you need a third winter sock for your dong.

Y'all clown on California, but guess who is wearing shorts and flip flops today...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 23, 2022, 07:12:53 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2022, 07:06:39 PM

Y'all clown on California, but guess who is wearing shorts and flip flops today...

Mine is the dot that says 52, right outside of the edge of the cold front, so I'm good. 

Welcome back. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2022, 10:20:35 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2022, 07:06:39 PM

Y'all clown on California, but guess who is wearing shorts and flip flops today...

Hey bwar!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 23, 2022, 10:32:48 PM

It's roughly the same temp in Portland, Tampa, and Maine.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2022, 12:46:15 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on December 23, 2022, 03:50:11 PM

https://twitter.com/TeaStormChaser/status/1606363211875360768?t=_K2FTsJLb7Z4zgv8salyfA&s=19

daughter is trying to get from Minnie to Sewer City today
fingers crossed
the map driving apps are good about knowing what roads are closed - I hope

damn nice here in the Dallas area

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 24, 2022, 12:49:02 PM

48 degrees here. Wearing shorts still.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 24, 2022, 01:34:10 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 24, 2022, 12:49:02 PM

48 degrees here. Wearing shorts still.

34 here in the ATX. I am not wearing shorts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2022, 02:48:01 PM

Up to 23°F here right now ... and climbing, I hope.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2022, 09:30:07 PM

i'm moving to Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 24, 2022, 11:03:48 PM

Doesn't exactly narrow it down...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 25, 2022, 12:31:55 AM

El Paso to Beaumont is about the same as Ft. Wayne is to Boston.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on December 25, 2022, 01:15:59 AM

I click on this thread because it’s cold as all get out down south, and a familiar face is just hanging out! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2022, 06:51:40 AM

Dear Fellow Floridians,
We are going to be ok!
I have put together some quick tips for those who aren’t sure how they are supposed to navigate this weekend’s excessive cold weather.
● Wear real shoes. Your flip flops will have to fend for themselves for a few days. They will be okay.
● Socks! Wear them. Preferably with real shoes. Still a no on the flip flops.
● Put the doors back on your jeeps.  Maybe leave your convertibles home.
● Consider pants. The extra fabric may feel a tad foreign at first, but you gotta power through.
● Stock your fridge now. Publix will be closed. Assume a record number of employees will call in dead. They’ve never been this cold and will believe they have passed.
● You've likely never noticed it but there is a setting on your AC unit at home that makes it blow out warm air. Use it. Look for a little fire symbol or the word H E A T
● There is also a similar function for the ac in your car… and turn off the seat AC feature.
● Umbrella. Use an umbrella if you do venture outside. Not for rain, it will help you avoid head injuries caused by frozen iguanas falling from trees. Those suckers are heavy.
● Bring all those orchids inside immediately. A couple hours in that kind of cold will kill them dead in an hour just like it will you if you don't stay inside your house.
● That soft warm chewing gum that's always in your car will now be harder than rock. Please don't break a tooth.
● DON'T use your Evian face spritz outside. It will freeze to your face, and you'll have little ice cycles hanging from your new lashes.
● Wash your hair now. You’re not going to this weekend. Perhaps pick up some dry shampoo on your way to pick up the last Publix sub of the week.
● Take deep breaths, you got this. No deep breaths on Saturday though. Your lungs aren’t used to air that cold. They will collapse… best hold your breath until Monday. Florida, may the odds be ever in your favor...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 25, 2022, 08:26:26 AM

Well felt very fortunate the last 2 days as the local carnival barkers who refer to themselves as meteoroligists were calling for sustaining winds as high as 70. Which would have made temps much worse than they were.I'd like to slap the snot out of each and every one of them as occasional winds barely got to maybe 38-40 and no power outages around here.But I'm very grateful they were wrong as usual,anyways MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL
:a035:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on December 25, 2022, 09:03:30 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2022, 11:51:31 AM

I don't think I'm overreacting or hand-wringing.  Just noting that I hope a lot of people don't have the troubles they had then. 

And it's 'notable' to me because while we do get below freezing a couple of nights every year here, we don't get down into the teens often....that is irregular.  Thus I find myself hoping nothing similar occurs.  We fared just fine last time.  We never lost power and I don't think it would've been a big deal if we had, heating-wise.  I have some in-laws in North Texas who didn't fare as well, so I hope nobody has a similar experience. 

At any rate, it doesn't hurt to be prepared for oddball circumstances, no matter how unlikely you or I think they are.  Texas can do  better for itself by simply not subsidizing a bunch of green energy that produces relatively little power for the investment.  Just allocating the current amount of money spent into more effective energy sources would've seen the state through that last storm.  My handwringing comes from my belief that the idgits in Austin didn't learn anything from that experience. 

Everybody knows that the wind turbines and solar panels didn’t fare well during the ‘21 freeze. But it was the natural gas and coal plants that failed the grid and lost the biggest % of generating capacity by far. 

It takes a whole lot more effort and money to winterize a plant for what was needed in sub-20 degree weather for several days than what a typical Texas freeze looks like. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2022, 10:22:07 AM

Certainly glad to not live in Buffalo.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 26, 2022, 10:25:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2022, 10:22:07 AM

Certainly glad to not live in Buffalo.

Hey 847- seen any frozen Iguanas?   We have quite a few here.  They fall out of the trees. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2022, 10:29:01 AM

We don't have a lot of those over here, thankfully. I think they are mostly around Naples, but not as far North as we are. I have not seen one since I was in Fort L.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 26, 2022, 10:50:23 AM

anyone living in Buffalo should be aware and able to deal with adverse winter weather

losing power is always a problem

if not a generator, a heat source such as wood burning stove would be a must

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 26, 2022, 11:02:03 AM

In Buffalo, it's difficult to get away with shooting the looters. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 26, 2022, 11:03:12 AM

just throw them in a snow drift

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 26, 2022, 01:36:00 PM

Buffalo isn't any colder than here just gets more snow as the westerly winds run the length of Erie. Buffalo is at the very east end picking up all of the precip.Where CTown is in the middle,we tend to get hammered more later in the winter as lake freezes and wind shifts out of true north
🥶 ❄️ 🧊

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 26, 2022, 05:32:37 PM

I heard somewhere that the coldest temperature recorded in the state of Ohio was in Cincinnati (-25°F).  So that is incorrect.

So, what's the most extreme temperature Ohio has ever experienced? The all-time lowest temperature ever recorded was -39° F, which was recorded in Milligan on February 10, 1899. That's a difference of more than 150 degrees from the all-time highest temperature of 113° F, recorded in Gallipolis on July 21, 1934.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 26, 2022, 06:34:01 PM

Not too far from one another

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/OHMap-doton-Milligan.png)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/OHMap-doton-Gallipolis.png/250px-OHMap-doton-Gallipolis.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 29, 2022, 09:08:44 AM

Why isn't the U.S. electrical grid run on 100% renewable energy yet? (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/29/why-isnt-the-us-electrical-grid-run-on-100percent-renewable-energy-yet.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 30, 2022, 08:39:28 AM

So.. The POTUS is vacationing/jetting around Caribbean this week, and he didn't sign the 1.7T bill before he left?

(Lots of vacations for this guy, it seems.)

I read that the massive bill was flown to his vacation spot, so he could sign it before today's deadline.

THIS is how you fight climate change.


(Yes, this is real.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2022, 08:49:38 AM

I doubt that increases CO2 emissions as probably it'll be loaded on a regularly scheduled flight, but maybe that is wrong.  

I keep wanting more realism in all of this, but I realize that is a forlorn hope.  We're going to be wed to fossil fuels for decades no matter what we cry about.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 30, 2022, 10:28:08 AM

Messaging.

It definitely didn't fly on Southwest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2022, 11:01:14 AM

I have not seen any analysis as to why SW collapsed when other carriers struggled but mostly managed.  OK, weather was bad, fine, but why did not United fail?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 30, 2022, 11:07:19 AM

-3 last & single digits last Friday/Sat/Sun - today it is 60 deg right now

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 30, 2022, 11:28:51 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 30, 2022, 11:01:14 AM

I have not seen any analysis as to why SW collapsed when other carriers struggled but mostly managed.  OK, weather was bad, fine, but why did not United fail?

Check out the WSJ yesterday.   Long story on how this happened.    Skysolver is a tech platform which SW relies on for managing its schedule.   It gets most of the blame in the story 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 30, 2022, 11:54:07 AM

The Real problem with the Software at Southwest Airlines. : SouthwestAirlines (reddit.com) (https://www.reddit.com/r/SouthwestAirlines/comments/zyao44/the_real_problem_with_the_software_at_southwest/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2022, 11:09:55 AM

Flew southwest from Omaha to love field in Dallas and back to Omaha.  Friday the 23rd and yesterday.

The 23rd the flight was delayed 90 minutes

Otherwise no issues.

I guess I was lucky 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 31, 2022, 11:42:12 AM

Apparently Barney is branching out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 01, 2023, 07:24:32 PM

If you park in one of several commuter lots on Michigan State University's campus, you'll likely score a premium parking spot. That's because each parking lot is sheltered from the sun, snow and rain by solar panels. They're mounted above the lot on steel structures tall enough for tailgaters in RVs to park beneath. Besides providing a more pleasant parking experience, the university gets cheaper, cleaner solar energy from the solar panels.

It's a great thing to not have to scrape your car free of snow in 20-degree weather. I know, because I was a commuting student at Michigan State for two years and gladly took advantage of the covered parking.

So why don't all parking lots have solar panels over them? We need to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels to avoid the worst effects of global warming. And, as extreme weather becomes more common, shade and shelter from downpours would be a welcome development for drivers.

Each solar panel installation has a different energy and financial evaluation. Rooftop and ground-mounted solar panels produce differently based on their latitude and the angle they're installed at. Parking lot owners may forego solar panels for reasons including cost and inconvenience. However, some solar experts think increased interest in sustainability (90% of Americans wanted more solar farms in 2020, according to Pew) could mean more solar parking lots are headed our way.


For many homeowners, installing solar panels will save them money in the long run. The same is true for large institutions.

Michigan State estimated the parking lot panels (located over five lots) would save $10 million over 25 years. The university gets the electricity from the panels under a power purchase agreement, which means it doesn't own the panels but agrees to purchase the power. It saves by getting the power for a lower price than from an alternative source.

"A carport is roughly 40% more expensive compared to a ground mount system," said Tim Powers, a research and policy associate for Inovateus Solar, the company that built Michigan State's system. It costs more because of extra materials (it takes taller, stronger structures to get solar panels that far off the ground), extra labor (it takes longer to build) and extra engineering costs, he said.

If the only motivation is getting solar for the cheapest possible price, carports aren't the way to go. But there are other reasons an institution might adopt solar in their parking lots.

Michigan State's carports have won national and state awards, and account for 5% of the energy consumption on campus -- a step towards the university's sustainability goals and a nice round of good publicity. Several people I interviewed for this story suggested it might make the university more attractive to incoming students, though empirical evidence of the impact of a school's sustainability on a student choosing it is harder to find.


a solar carport covering an average Walmart parking lot would have a capacity of about 3.1 megawatts, said Joshua Pearce, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Western University in London, Ontario.

Pearce modeled the viability of solar carports at big box stores, choosing Walmart for its ubiquity. The chain has also made public commitments to sustainability and is one of the leading corporations in solar capacity installed. Walmart says it has 600 onsite renewable energy installations, but didn't share information about planned or installed parking lot solar canopies. It has reportedly installed at least seven throughout California.

While it's hard to say if someone would opt for one retailer over another because of the environmental messaging of a large, visible solar array, would they if it meant parking out of the sun, snow or rain?

Pearce has a hunch they might, though his research hasn't looked at this question directly. He thinks stores might attract even more customers by providing discounted or free electric vehicle charging to shoppers.


An average Walmart parking lot could support about 100 electric vehicle chargers if covered in solar panels, Pearce's research found.

"I believe that if you're given free parking underneath the canopy that can charge your electric vehicle, you'll spend a little bit more time in the store because you're going to wait for it to get charged," he said. "Even if you only buy one thing, that will be a net profit for the store."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/why-don-t-we-cover-every-parking-lot-with-solar-panels/ar-AA10CE0n?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=fb309844ffef409181751379dcd5d3e4 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/why-don-t-we-cover-every-parking-lot-with-solar-panels/ar-AA10CE0n?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=fb309844ffef409181751379dcd5d3e4)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 01, 2023, 10:06:42 PM

My company's office buildings have some large parking areas covered with solar panels.  And the very best parking places right up front have charging ports and are reserved for EVs.

I park my F150 at the back and enjoy the extra exercise I receive hiking to my office building.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 01, 2023, 10:16:40 PM

You should be hiking from home based on the haul coming out of the smoker

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 02, 2023, 07:00:53 AM

I May start a business making cheap Fake solar panels

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 02, 2023, 07:54:56 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 02, 2023, 07:00:53 AM

I May start a business making cheap Fake solar panels

It works for China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 02, 2023, 08:13:15 AM

Cheaper just veneer for social signaling 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 02, 2023, 08:17:37 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 02, 2023, 07:00:53 AM

I May start a business making cheap Fake solar panels

Hey don't go muscling in on the Federal Gov't gig

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2023, 08:12:02 AM

Chionophobia is the persistent fear of snow, especially becoming trapped by snow. The term is derived from the Greek words chion and phobos, meaning “snow” and “fear,” respectively.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 03, 2023, 11:09:37 AM

Did y'all hear about rally car driver Ken Block getting killed in a snowmobile accident, and actor Jeremy Renner being severely injured in a snowplow accident?

If I didn't already have it, I think I'm starting to develop some serious chionophobia of my own.  

Stay away from snow-- and motorized snow vehicles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 03, 2023, 11:11:02 AM

And dune buggies and dirt bikes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2023, 11:14:57 AM

I'm probably lucky to be alive from some motorized snow and ice capades back in my youth

thunderstorm here this morning about 4am

driveway is clean

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 03, 2023, 12:36:42 PM

Bumper Skiing? Watch out for manhole covers,exhaust and snow/ice/salt spray from the tires

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2023, 09:29:02 AM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/321100709_685416853129341_3845278423347125205_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=RBXNTHtGZGIAX-KdEKY&_nc_oc=AQmVneh6H2i-_GZ6E-gXygxvZShzZwmrGfoeI_HwXD-9ewANLUXMtxYjM9cR4EmeMYY&tn=1aDD2LH8MXkA8yGv&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfCUvH5RSJKWplJo9SWsvtfyXp8Vev1gpQTsC2TsmMu1fg&oe=63B9A8FA)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 04, 2023, 10:13:34 AM

Well that looks like a terrible idea.

I definitely would have tried it in college.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2023, 10:18:41 AM

the car seat didn't stay attached for long, so we'd go two or three at a time laying on our bellies

should have had full face helmets, sometimes we did

pulled at relatively high speeds behind a 4wheel drive pickup through cornstalks and over terraces

good clean fun 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2023, 01:20:33 PM

Extreme heat in Europe smashes all-time records | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/europe/europe-heat-records-climate-intl/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 04, 2023, 01:27:58 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 04, 2023, 01:20:33 PM

Extreme heat in Europe smashes all-time records | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/europe/europe-heat-records-climate-intl/index.html)

It's actually been really positive for all of the European countries that are attempting to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas.  Their consumption has been significantly lower so far this winter, and so the alternative sources they've shifted to, have had a much easier time keeping up with demand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2023, 04:52:19 PM

Engineers in China have unveiled the world’s most powerful wind turbine,

The 18 megawatt (MW) offshore wind turbine prototype, built by Chinese manufacturer CSSC Haizhuang, features a rotor measuring 260 metres in diameter – equivalent to the height of world’s current most powerful wind turbine.

The H260-18MW turbine will be able to produce 44.8 kilowatt hours of electricity per revolution, and up to 74,000 MWh of electricity annually when operational. In a news release, CSSC said it marked a “new milestone” for renewable energy.

“The H260-18MW turbine will make a great contribution to the improvement of turbine capacity and efficiency, as well as reducing the LCOE [levelized cost of energy] of offshore wind farms, and has market prospects in high-speed wind and deep-sea areas,” the firm said in a statement.


Renewable energy saw a record-breaking year in 2022, as global electricity generation from renewables overtook coal for the first time.

In the UK, wind, solar, biomass and hydro power accounted for 40 per cent of the country’s electricity share last year, up from 35 per cent in 2021.

The increase in clean energy production meant Britain also became a net exporter of electricity for the first time in more than a decade, with an estimated 1.9TWh of exported energy generating more than £3 billion for the UK economy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 17, 2023, 02:12:18 PM

This does not happen very often. 6th time in history.

(https://i.imgur.com/fVKLvqa.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 23, 2023, 11:19:41 AM

Energy CEO thinks natural gas will be around for years to come (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/23/energy-ceo-thinks-natural-gas-will-be-around-for-years-to-come-.html)

In December 2022, for example, AES and Air Products (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/APD/) said they planned to invest roughly $4 billion to develop a “mega-scale green hydrogen production facility” located in Texas.
According to the announcement, the project will incorporate around 1.4 gigawatts of wind and solar and be able to produce more than 200 metric tons of hydrogen every day.
Despite the significant amount of money and renewables involved in the project, AES chief Gluski was at pains to highlight how much work lay ahead when it came to scaling up the sector as a whole.
The facility being planned with Air Products, he explained, could only “supply point one percent of the U.S. long haul trucking fleet.” Work to be done, then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 24, 2023, 09:05:03 PM

Had an exciting morning here in Houston

Front went through spawning several tornados one of which passed within 2 miles of my house

I told God if I wanted to live in Oklahoma I would have moved there sheeesh

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2023, 05:49:44 AM

Saw that on the news last evening. They were also showing a big fire. Nasty stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2023, 09:22:03 AM

Glad you're okay lh320.  Sounds like one of the tornadoes missed a major refinery by 100 yards?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 25, 2023, 09:41:01 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2023, 09:22:03 AM

Glad you're okay lh320.  Sounds like one of the tornadoes missed a major refinery by 100 yards?

all is good

things did get exciting for about 2 hours with 50 mph winds and hail and the guy on tv showing a possible track of a tornado right at our house

if I was a cat Id say we used up one of our nine lives

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2023, 10:36:40 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/AbCygEe.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 25, 2023, 11:20:58 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 24, 2023, 09:05:03 PM

Had an exciting morning here in Houston

Front went through spawning several tornados one of which passed within 2 miles of my house

I told God if I wanted to live in Oklahoma I would have moved there sheeesh

We were supposed to get that here too.  Wound up only catching a flash flood, the wind never got crazy like anticipated.  Oddly, all the towns around us got it, but not ours.  

How in the world an entire system with that kind of wind can randomly leave out a 10ish mile radius of land is beyond me.  But I'm glad it did.  Happily, I did all that wind-storm prep for nothing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2023, 02:13:44 PM

https://youtu.be/z2HneqfZGsM (https://youtu.be/z2HneqfZGsM)



https://youtu.be/ptI6BRVC1Kw (https://youtu.be/ptI6BRVC1Kw)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 12:38:20 PM

The rotation of Earth's inner core may have paused and it could even go into reverse, new research suggests.

The Earth is formed of the crust, the mantle and the inner and outer cores. The solid inner core is situated about 3,200 miles below the Earth's crust and is separated from the semi-solid mantle by the liquid outer core, which allows the inner core to rotate at a different speed from the rotation of the Earth itself.

With a radius of almost 2,200 miles, Earth's core is about the size of Mars. It consists mostly of iron and nickel, and contains about about one-third of Earth's mass.


https://columbustelegram.com/news/science/earths-inner-core-may-have-stopped-turning-and-could-go-into-reverse-study-suggests/article_8f47f899-5f28-5fc7-b677-feef72dea6fd.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Columbus_Telegram&fbclid=IwAR175AtOq7N_FuQT9TYaC08DegFXIqhH_x2B1LNP1UJY6EpLh48FtKC0mgo (https://columbustelegram.com/news/science/earths-inner-core-may-have-stopped-turning-and-could-go-into-reverse-study-suggests/article_8f47f899-5f28-5fc7-b677-feef72dea6fd.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Columbus_Telegram&fbclid=IwAR175AtOq7N_FuQT9TYaC08DegFXIqhH_x2B1LNP1UJY6EpLh48FtKC0mgo)

"We use geophysical inference methods to infer the Earth's internal properties, and caution must be exercised until multi-disciplinary findings confirm our hypotheses and conceptual frameworks," he explained

"You can think of seismologists like medical doctors who study the internal organs of patients' bodies using imperfect or limited equipment. So, despite progress, our image of the inner Earth is still blurry, and we are still in the discovery stage."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 01:00:12 PM

Partisan ‘Fact Checkers’ Spread Climate-Change Misinformation - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/partisan-fact-checkers-spread-climate-misinformation-polar-bear-population-hunting-afp-temperature-11674768511?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR3nyJeQPmE9vyvGSoluE4EzSKZo_GwZ4emMpWmVsQhvvvlpuYflMw96H3Y)

Interesting how the message gets censored if it's not aligned with The Message ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 03:39:17 PM

Why desalination won't save states dependent on Colorado River water (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/27/why-desalination-wont-save-states-dependent-on-colorado-river-water.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 05:35:31 PM

cause they didn't put Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tuscon next to the ocean?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 29, 2023, 08:02:36 AM

negative 5 here this morning

6 inches of snow yesterday morning

January is almost over

Spring is coming!

high of 22 expected in Kansas City this afternoon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2023, 08:09:18 AM

I do not miss Ohio winters, at all.  

45°F here with some rain later today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 29, 2023, 08:14:22 AM

45 is OK with me

above 40 I don't bother with gloves or a hat

45 and wet can be cold

I'm sure after a decade or so living in the south (not Austin) I'd think 45 was too cold

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 29, 2023, 09:11:16 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/lQHmaqd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 29, 2023, 09:34:15 AM

not moving to Florida

but, I'd like to visit this time of year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 07:27:06 AM

Electric heat pumps for homes could be a clean, green technology of the future (knowablemagazine.org) (https://knowablemagazine.org/article/technology/2023/heat-pumps-becoming-technology-future)

Interesting to me as we have "water sourced heat pumps", I think with no resistance heating backup.

Back in summer, a fan on the water evaporator on the roof failed and the building lost all AC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2023, 08:05:58 AM

That is very interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on January 30, 2023, 08:45:05 AM

I think water source heat pump concept is something that many US cities could utilize. I know that in New York City, the city sells steam to many of the buildings that use that steam to heat the building. The same concept could be applied to heat pump technology using the ocean for a heat source. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 08:48:32 AM

Tall buildings use this type of heat pump now I think without exception.  If you see large noisy evaporators on the roof or to the side, they are part of the water sourcing.  Ours is on the roof.  Sometimes, you may walk over grids that are blowing air upwards, same thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 08:49:13 AM

my heat pump has been running almost no stop the past 12 hours with electric heat also kickin on occasionally

negative 5 again this morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2023, 09:28:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 07:27:06 AM

Electric heat pumps for homes could be a clean, green technology of the future (knowablemagazine.org) (https://knowablemagazine.org/article/technology/2023/heat-pumps-becoming-technology-future)

Interesting to me as we have "water sourced heat pumps", I think with no resistance heating backup.

Back in summer, a fan on the water evaporator on the roof failed and the building lost all AC.

Not up here,they work until about mid 30s efficiently. Then they'd be running the rest of the winter,they may keep you warm briefly when they burn up. This might work but prolly cost too much for the average homeowner


(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQJ0a9HhcE5gX5bKksK5bHnIiEPQRMppeJ3cjHbe_jNQQ&s)

A geothermal heating and cooling system is an energy-efficient system that uses the natural stable ground temperature to warm homes in the winter and keep them cool in the summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2023, 09:30:17 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 29, 2023, 08:14:22 AM

I'm sure after a decade or so living in the south (not Austin) I'd think 45 was too cold

well where else did you live if Austin isn't south

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 09:31:05 AM

Geothermal is pretty expensive, but it's different from "water sourced".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:32:23 AM

mine probably not real efficient this morning, but maybe about the same as running "Emergency" heat.

from what I know about geothermal ground source water is that it's efficient for larger homes and buildings

not 1100 sq ft boxes like mine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2023, 09:34:58 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 29, 2023, 08:02:36 AM

negative 5 here this morning

6 inches of snow yesterday morning

January is almost over

Spring is coming!

high of 22 expected in Kansas City this afternoon

Funny I just saw an alert  ❄️ Snow Coming  thanx Bastage you could at least send some Budwater as a consulation prize

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:36:24 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 30, 2023, 09:30:17 AM

well where else did you live if Austin isn't south

south could be anywhere south of the Iowa border
but I certainly won't be moving to Austin or the state of Florida
I've lived by Sewer City, IA most of my life

a few years in Lincoln during college
a year in Muscatine, IA for a project
a year in Logansport, IN for a project
those were all south of Sewer City

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:37:17 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 30, 2023, 09:34:58 AM

Funny I just saw an alert  ❄️ Snow Coming  thanx Bastage you could at least send some Budwater as a consulation prize

yup, after two days of snow, sent it your way
sun is shining and driveway is clear

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2023, 09:38:24 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:32:23 AM

mine probably not real efficient this morning, but maybe about the same as running "Emergency" heat.

from what I know about geothermal ground source water is that it's efficient for larger homes and buildings

not 1100 sq ft boxes like mine

Ed Zachery what I have,maybe we could apply for Po' Folk benefits. Still enough room for a Kegger (Fridge & Party) should it be something important like Big Ten Football

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:50:35 AM

I've hosted a few parties with too many people, usually spilling out on the back deck and into the yard(4th of July)

for football watchin parties a prefer 4-5.  
better focus on the game

dinner parties of 6 or less

back in 1989, was going to be a starter house until the kids got bigger.
just never moved

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2023, 10:19:15 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:50:35 AM

I've hosted a few parties with too many people, usually spilling out on the back deck and into the yard(4th of July)

for football watchin parties a prefer 4-5. 
better focus on the game

dinner parties of 6 or less

back in 1989, was going to be a starter house until the kids got bigger.
just never moved

Eerily similar except for a couple of Buckeye Games had between 18-25 won both too 😎. No more as it took like a week or 2 to fumigate as more people smoked 20 yrs back. Plus spilled Beer and it wasn't me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 05:57:07 AM

BP: World demand for oil, gas to to tumble by 2050 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/30/bp-demand-for-oil-gas-to-fall-and-for-renewables-electricity-grows.html)

Energy giant BP (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BP/) predicts oil and gas will become a dramatically smaller part of the global energy mix by 2050, while zero-carbon alternatives like wind and solar energy will continue to increase their penetration, the company said in its 12th annual energy outlook report published Monday.

The share of fossil fuels as a primary energy source will fall from 80 percent in 2019 to between 55 and 20 percent  (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2023.pdf)by 2050, while renewables’ share will grow from 10 percent to between 35 percent and 65 percent over the same time period.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 01:21:40 PM

AI predicts the world may likely to hit a key warming threshold in 10-12 years : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/01/31/1152738997/ai-is-predicting-the-world-is-likely-to-hit-a-key-warming-threshold-in-10-12-yea)

In a high-pollution scenario, the AI calculated, the world would hit the 2-degree mark around 2050. Lower pollution could stave that off until 2054, the machine learning calculated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2023, 01:35:47 PM

A large portion of my role at work has started to include sustainability/emissions stuff...

And I just had my first actual press interview that led to this article: https://accelerationeconomy.com/cxo/how-western-digital-hdd-innovations-are-improving-capacity-tco-and-sustainability-initiatives/ (https://accelerationeconomy.com/cxo/how-western-digital-hdd-innovations-are-improving-capacity-tco-and-sustainability-initiatives/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2023, 02:03:45 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 29, 2023, 08:14:22 AM

45 is OK with me

above 40 I don't bother with gloves or a hat

45 and wet can be cold

I'm sure after a decade or so living in the south (not Austin) I'd think 45 was too cold

Anything below about 62 is too cold.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2023, 09:52:35 AM

Hovering right around freezing since Monday night and precip falling as rain/sleet/snow since about 2 AM.  Austin is iced under right now.  Major roads are still passable but overpasses and bridges are treacherous, and localized power outages due to fallen limbs also knock out traffic lights all over, so driving is a complete mess right now.

I have power but my parents don't, so I might be one of the lucky ones that has to venture out into this in another couple of hours.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 01, 2023, 11:14:42 AM

Freezing? you guys always catch the breaks teens here single digits when old man winter sneezes, thanx Fearless. Bright and sunny need the shades when driving.I'd actually prefer this than the30/40 we were getting w/o the SUN - like a constant pall. With the Sun reflecting off of the snow catching up on some D vitamins

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on February 01, 2023, 12:13:03 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2023, 09:52:35 AM

Hovering right around freezing since Monday night and precip falling as rain/sleet/snow since about 2 AM.  Austin is iced under right now.  Major roads are still passable but overpasses and bridges are treacherous, and localized power outages due to fallen limbs also knock out traffic lights all over, so driving is a complete mess right now.

I have power but my parents don't, so I might be one of the lucky ones that has to venture out into this in another couple of hours.

Pistons-Wizards game tonight postponed, because Pistons still can't get out.  I was supposed to go to Dallas, and then to Houston this week for work.  Hearing the travel nightmares, I'm glad they cut that travel group from 4 to 2

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2023, 12:14:20 PM

79 and sunny. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 01, 2023, 12:27:17 PM

Well, I feel a little foolish.  I've seen you post Sewer City on these forums for years, just now realized you really meant Sioux City. 

Or at least that's what I assume now.  Unless I'm wrong.  

Carry on.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on February 01, 2023, 12:31:54 PM

Quote from: ELA on February 01, 2023, 12:13:03 PM

Pistons-Wizards game tonight postponed, because Pistons still can't get out.  I was supposed to go to Dallas, and then to Houston this week for work.  Hearing the travel nightmares, I'm glad they cut that travel group from 4 to 2

We Texans can do a lot of things but one thing we dont know how to do is drive on icy roads

When the roads freeze over with ice I just stay home cause theres a crazy Texan out there driving a car with my name on it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 01, 2023, 12:33:05 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2023, 01:35:47 PM

A large portion of my role at work has started to include sustainability/emissions stuff...

And I just had my first actual press interview that led to this article: https://accelerationeconomy.com/cxo/how-western-digital-hdd-innovations-are-improving-capacity-tco-and-sustainability-initiatives/ (https://accelerationeconomy.com/cxo/how-western-digital-hdd-innovations-are-improving-capacity-tco-and-sustainability-initiatives/)

Cool article.  I enjoyed reading it ! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2023, 01:03:07 PM

As noted, I could see lockdowns in some urban areas for a time if needed.  But statewide?  Nope.

Wrong thread, my bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2023, 01:30:52 PM

Lockdowns for being too cold?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2023, 01:40:50 PM

We're in a self-imposed lockdown right now.  Ain't no need to be out on these roads today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2023, 01:50:39 PM

When I lived in Chicago, I would drive in anything. Had no choice. Remote working was not a thing, at all. 

Snow days were for pussies, so to speak.

Now I'm a pussy. I don't even like driving in the rain or dark anymore.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2023, 02:02:05 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2023, 01:50:39 PM

When I lived in Chicago, I would drive in anything. Had no choice. Remote working was not a thing, at all.

Snow days were for pussies, so to speak.

Now I'm a pussy. I don't even like driving in the rain or dark anymore.

It's not really comparable.  Northern cities have road crews, trucks for sanding/salting, etc.  Austin has none of those, just not cost effective to maintain a fleet for the 5 times per decade this happens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2023, 02:41:35 PM

They were always behind. Always.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2023, 03:27:48 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2023, 02:02:05 PM

It's not really comparable.  Northern cities have road crews, trucks for sanding/salting, etc.  Austin has none of those, just not cost effective to maintain a fleet for the 5 times per decade this happens.

Yeah, it was the joke I always made when it snowed at Purdue. 

In Chicago, they have the infrastructure in place. In West Lafayette, they had Earl. Earl loved to plow snow, but he could only do it when he was sober. Problem was, Earl started drinking as soon as the snow started falling. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2023, 02:41:35 PM

They were always behind. Always.

That's what you get for not living on the same street as an Alderman. You were treated like the rest of the peons. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 01, 2023, 04:21:55 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/K7sx0qz.png)  (https://i.imgur.com/7A4WBM8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2023, 07:02:26 PM

Quote from: Gigem on February 01, 2023, 12:27:17 PM

Well, I feel a little foolish.  I've seen you post Sewer City on these forums for years, just now realized you really meant Sioux City.

Or at least that's what I assume now.  Unless I'm wrong. 

Carry on. 

good guess

have you driven through north-south on I-29?

past the sewer plant

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2023, 07:04:39 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2023, 02:02:05 PM

It's not really comparable.  Northern cities have road crews, trucks for sanding/salting, etc.  Austin has none of those, just not cost effective to maintain a fleet for the 5 times per decade this happens.

pussies wait for the plows to go out on the roads

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2023, 07:20:26 PM

That is a copper mine, and any comparison of sea levels should account for tides.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2023, 06:39:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 01, 2023, 07:04:39 PM

pussies wait for the plows to go out on the roads

Which could be the next day...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2023, 07:38:44 AM

6 more weeks of winter!!

(https://i.imgur.com/zfCZWKt.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 02, 2023, 08:17:44 AM

Good time to be here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2023, 08:20:27 AM

Without question. A little nippy this morning at 66, but heading up to 83.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2023, 08:38:38 AM

Uh huh...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bps-ceo-plays-down-renewables-push-11675249471?st=g42w569d6amh2pm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2023, 01:55:51 PM

Massive green energy company reports nearly $1 billion in losses, calls for 'further governmental action' | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-green-energy-company-reports-1-billion-losses-calls-further-governmental-action)

International green groups, though, have repeatedly warned that wind development is falling (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/wind-energy-expansion-faces-strong-headwinds-industry-report-shows) far short of what is needed to transition from fossil fuels to green energy.
A report on offshore wind from the Global Wind Energy Council noted that while a record 21.1 gigawatts of offshore wind was connected around the world in 2021, that figure fell far short of what is needed to reach net-zero. 
And the International Energy Agency said 70 to 80 gigawatts of offshore wind must be installed annually by 2050 to transition from fossil fuel dependence. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2023, 07:41:27 AM

When I was a kid, we took the cog railway to the top of Mount Washington. It was 80 degrees, but up there it was around 50 - and felt colder. It was WINDY. But nothing like this.

-100 degree wind chill. Unreal.


The polar vortex will cause temperatures to tumble to their lowest levels in years across New England late this week. The harsh cold, when paired with strong winds, could cause frostbite in minutes, and one remote location will face weather conditions so extreme that it will feel otherworldly.


The heart of the cold weather is forecast to unfold across New England from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with subzero temperatures expected across a widespread area. Boston is forecast to experience one of its top-five lowest temperatures in recorded history (https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/brief-visit-from-polar-vortex-to-bring-record-challenging-cold-to-northeast/1476819) on Saturday morning with the mercury predicted to reach 10 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. 


But the extreme nature of the upcoming Arctic blast will be unparalleled at the summit of Mount Washington, the tallest mountain in the northeastern United States.




The AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature is forecast to drop to 100 degrees below zero at the summit of the 6,288-foot-tall mountain in northern New Hampshire on Friday night into Saturday morning.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2023, 07:45:16 AM

Standard drop in T with altitude is 4.5°F per 1,000 feet.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2023, 07:50:18 AM

That checks out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2023, 10:50:27 AM

This is going to be brutal.

(https://i.imgur.com/wK5pXUS.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2023, 11:02:23 AM

70 and sunny here today and tomorrow. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 03, 2023, 12:55:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 03, 2023, 07:45:16 AM

Standard drop in T with altitude is 4.5°F per 1,000 feet. 

So I'll regain the vigor of my youth at lower elevations?  

(https://i.imgur.com/834xFXN.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2023, 11:15:07 AM

Al Gore and the End of Climate Policy - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/al-gore-and-the-end-of-climate-policy-energy-oil-research-exxon-harvard-rockefeller-11675453870?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR14GLbYHGWpRdpacXXY7UJEyGXKDT-7Pi4AJ9OEjaiX1NyQrUXlM7n45t0)

In the meantime, though, thanks to Rockefeller, Mr. Gore and others, we ended up with policy option C—spend X trillion to have no effect on climate. Our obsessive focus on green energy subsidies pleases many constituents but incentivizes (https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oil-friends-the-carbon-tax-11614727361?mod=article_inline) more energy consumption overall. After all, the human appetite for energy is limitless if the price is right. Meanwhile, unused and even denigrated by the left is the only tool (https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB116960423818685795?mod=article_inline) that was ever likely to reduce meaningfully the path of emissions, a carbon tax.

Oh well. Climate policy is effectively over (https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-still-want-fossil-fuels-oil-pipelines-cheap-energy-11634074127?mod=article_inline) and that’s probably fine. The energy machine will certainly incorporate new technologies, including renewables; there won’t be a major shift in emissions from the path they would have taken anyway.
Mr. Gore will continue his angry prophet act. Politics will continue to fuel a sacred pork scramble. The climate press will balance on its noses whatever memes are tossed its way. And humanity will adapt to the climate it gets, which the best current guess says will probably be another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer over the next century.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 04, 2023, 03:51:09 PM

https://youtu.be/fJessYxu8CE

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2023, 05:18:25 PM

https://youtu.be/awaOhf2NMdQ

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2023, 06:31:39 AM

Can You Sue Tesla For An Autopilot Crash? (zdfirm.com) (https://www.zdfirm.com/blog/can-you-sue-tesla-autopilot-crash/#:~:text=You can hold Tesla responsible,responsible for their defective vehicles.)

The answer is yes.  You can sue a ham ssandwich of course.

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/ownersrightsnotification.pdf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2023, 08:06:04 AM

the real question is, Can you collect

not gonna get much cash from a ham sammich

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2023, 04:20:28 PM

Chances of coal being phased out? Just 1 in 20 by 2050 | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3845440-chances-of-coal-being-phased-out-just-1-in-20-by-2050/)

Dunno how one calculates such a chance, I'd say it's negligible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2023, 10:51:10 AM

The Models Are OK, the Predictions Are Wrong | Dr. Judith Curry | EP 329 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q2YHGIlUDk)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2023, 12:09:26 PM

Interesting discussion around 22 minutes by the implausible projections of extreme T change down the road that have been somewhat nulled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 10, 2023, 04:52:40 PM

How are natural gas prices where all of you folks are? 

Being in CA, we have a natural gas heater but, being in CA, we don't even bother heating the house in the winter. It doesn't even get turned on. So the only thing we use natural gas for is the water heater, and the gas oven/range. Even the dryer is electric. 

Gas bills for our 1200 sf house were typically about $40/mo. Last month jumped to $80, and this month to $100 (thankfully minus a "California climate credit" that I can't explain but drops it to $51). Usage didn't change; cost of NG did.

Similar across the country? 

Given the amount of electricity that is produced with NG plants, I hear our electric company is pushing the public utility commission here in CA to allow them to raise rates too. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 10, 2023, 05:21:02 PM

Yeah natural gas prices are probably double where they were 2 years ago here in Texico.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 10, 2023, 08:28:08 PM

I'm all electric here
My Feb. Bill

Supply and Delivery $150.40
Basic Service Charge $8.50
Energy Charge 1,000 X 0.08044 $80.44
Energy Charge 664 X 0.04536 $30.12
Energy Adjustment Clause 1,664 X 0.01765 $29.37
Transmission Cost Adjustment 1,664 X 0.00278 $4.63
Energy Efficiency Charge 1,664 X 0.00097 $1.61
Demand Response Charge 1,664 X 0.00057 $0.95
Income Tax Adjustment 1,664 X -0.00314 -$5.22
Taxes and Fees $1.50
1.00% Local Option Tax $1.50
Total $151.90

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 10, 2023, 09:15:02 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 10, 2023, 04:52:40 PM

How are natural gas prices where all of you folks are?

Mine literally tripled I got in early last year with the supplier but faffed around getting set for this season and ya I paid the price.And some suppliers are at twice what I got.Last two months bills have been 103 for January and 113 for December- 1100 sq ft 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on February 10, 2023, 10:04:48 PM

Yes, they have risen substantially YoY.  I log all of my utilities and the NG bumps are between +30 to 50% p month this 12 mo period to last and usage has been relatively similar.  

The electric bill increases are still double digit but not close to NG.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 11, 2023, 08:46:10 AM

I'm sure some of this is the policies of Brandon's adm. And the rest Corporate taking advantage of what they do best - lining their pockets at eveyone else's expense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2023, 08:48:14 AM

We don't have NG in most of Florida, but most of our electricity is generated by it.

Our bills have more than doubled since we moved here in 2020.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 09:08:16 AM

propane tanks floating around during/after a hurricane isn't a good thing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2023, 12:54:30 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 09:08:16 AM

propane tanks floating around during/after a hurricane isn't a good thing

I have a buried tank for the generator.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 01:20:31 PM

and your gas stove?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 01:29:44 PM

https://www.intrafish.com/technology/it-doesnt-get-more-radical-than-micro-reactors-one-of-the-worlds-largest-coldwater-shrimp-suppliers-is-pursuing-a-nuclear-powered-trawler/2-1-1393047 (https://www.intrafish.com/technology/it-doesnt-get-more-radical-than-micro-reactors-one-of-the-worlds-largest-coldwater-shrimp-suppliers-is-pursuing-a-nuclear-powered-trawler/2-1-1393047)

Norway-based Stella Polaris, one of the world's largest supplier of coldwater shrimp, says its dream of a nuclear-power trawler isn't dead, despite the project being passed over for federal research funds.

The plan is seemingly simple: a 150-ton microreactor, the size of a 40-foot container, would offer zero-emissions power to harvest one of the world's most sustainable wild shrimp fisheries.

But Jaran Rauo, development director at Stella Polaris, said the trouble is that the very thing that would make the operation sustainable -- nuclear power -- is a lighting rod for public opposition.

"Most people associate nuclear power with Fukushima and Chernobyl," Rauo told IntraFish sister site Kystens Næringsliv.

"There are important aspects to include in a feasibility assessment, but as I understand it, we are talking about a completely different risk through the use of much newer technology than just 10 to 20 years ago."


Stella Polaris and the Institute for Energy Engineering explored several options for how to create more sustainable power for its vessels, including hydrogen, methanol and ammonia.

The research clearly favored nuclear power as the most sustainable option -- a zero emission option, in fact.

Rather than dismiss the idea because of the controversy, the groups are pushing for a feasibility study.

"Radical challenges such as climate and sustainability require radical solutions," Rauo said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 02:04:14 PM

Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. energy firms cut the number of natural gas rigs by the most in a week since October 2017, while adding the most oil rigs in a week since June, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday.

The total oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose two to 761 in the week to Feb. 10.
Baker Hughes said that puts the total rig count up 126, or 20%, over this time last year.

U.S. oil rigs rose 10 to 609 this week, while gas rigs fell eight to 150.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-drillers-cut-the-most-gas-rigs-in-a-week-since-2017-baker-hughes/ar-AA17kTLC?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=38e80587932b4a56af6ce0915191b057 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-drillers-cut-the-most-gas-rigs-in-a-week-since-2017-baker-hughes/ar-AA17kTLC?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=38e80587932b4a56af6ce0915191b057)

U.S. oil futures were down about 1% so far this year after gaining about 7% in 2022. U.S. gas futures, meanwhile, have plunged about 44% so far this year after rising about 20% last year.

To avoid a looming oversupply situation in the gas market that has already helped pressure prices to 25-month lows earlier this week, many analysts have said producers will likely have to cut the number of rigs drilling for gas this year.

"The lagging (gas) price effect will negatively impact rig count, but do little for 2023. Our base case estimates 740 average total rigs during 2023, with gas rigs materially decreasing over the next 3-4 months," analysts at Raymond James said in a note. The U.S. investment bank has previously forecast an average of 813 rigs.

Oilfield services firm Patterson-UTI Energy Inc's chief executive said some rigs focused on drilling gas outside of the northeastern United States may be let go amid the price collapse, while oil-focused regions will see work pick up.

Despite a recovery in drilling since pandemic-related cuts, U.S. crude production has been slow to return to its peak of 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, only reaching 11.9 million in 2022. It is forecast to rise to 12.5 million bpd in 2023 and 12.7 million bpd in 2024, according to government data.

U.S. gas production was to rise on track to rise from a record 98.09 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 to 100.27 bcfd in 2023 and 101.68 bcfd in 2024, the government forecast.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 02:04:32 PM

apparently NG prices are dropping

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2023, 02:57:07 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 01:20:31 PM

and your gas stove?

We went with induction. Works good. Electric oven is awesome. Would rather have my old stove though.

That thing was killer.


(https://i.imgur.com/Z0r2bTp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 04:07:18 PM

wow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 11, 2023, 09:08:52 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 01, 2023, 07:02:26 PM

good guess

have you driven through north-south on I-29?

past the sewer plant

I don’t even know where I-29 is.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 09:18:34 PM

cause it's not in the south

Kansas City to Omaha, to Sioux City, to Sioux Falls, to Fargo, to Winnipeg

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 12, 2023, 12:06:06 AM

Furthest North I’ve been is Salina, Kansas.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2023, 12:50:06 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 02:04:32 PM

apparently NG prices are dropping

Winter is starting to wind down and by the time they process a new NG contract it's 2 billing periods then it's already spring so miss the big savings - I hope they rot in hell

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2023, 06:39:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 11, 2023, 04:07:18 PM

wow

Yeah. Lots of BTU's in that bad boy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2023, 08:24:15 AM

I'm glad you seem to have adapted and are ok

making Super Bowl chili today!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2023, 09:24:48 AM

Nice range.  Our house has a separate cooktop and wall oven, and when we upgraded the cooktop a few years back we went with one of these:

(https://i.imgur.com/2t0KfKt.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2023, 09:29:19 AM

Speaking of appliances, we need a new dishwasher (again).  The LG that came with the house sucked, and the Whirlpool we replaced it with has almost completely disintegrated in the 4 years we've had it, what a disappointing POS it turned out to be.

So... any recs on a solid, well built dishwasher that will last?  I'd like it to be quiet but other than that I don't really have any preferences on features, I just want it not to fall apart.  And I don't want to be doing this again in 4 years, so at this point money really is no object.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2023, 09:45:46 AM

my Maytag has been solid for around 20 years

probably don't build them like that any longer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2023, 09:51:37 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 12, 2023, 09:45:46 AM

my Maytag has been solid for around 20 years

probably don't build them like that any longer

Yeah I think you're right about that.

My Maytag washer and dryer that I bought in 1994 lasted 20 years.  I didn't even need to replace them, my wife just wanted more modern, prettier, front-loading ones.  So we gave away our old ones to my nephew and replaced them with the front-loading Maytag equivalent, and the washer started having problems within 3 or 4 years. We bought the full warranty which saved me almost $1000 on two separate occasions but now the warranty's out and the washer is acting up again.

Ugh.  I hate modern appliances.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2023, 09:54:32 AM

This is thread-related because modern appliances claim to be more eco-friendly.

But if you're throwing them in the trash every 4 years, I'm not sure that works out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2023, 10:00:35 AM

We went with Samsung stuff. Stove is on the island and the oven/mic combo is in the wall.

(https://i.imgur.com/eg1ZApm.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2023, 10:03:47 AM

I miss Samsung Sooner

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2023, 10:42:23 AM

I miss Hooky too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2023, 01:16:39 PM

Quote from: Gigem on February 12, 2023, 12:06:06 AM

Furthest North I’ve been is Salina, Kansas. 

Furthest north I've been is Stockholm. Furthest south is Penang. 

Still have never been in the southern hemisphere though. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2023, 01:23:22 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 12, 2023, 09:24:48 AM

Nice range.  Our house has a separate cooktop and wall oven, and when we upgraded the cooktop a few years back we went with one of these:

(https://i.imgur.com/2t0KfKt.jpg)

Nice sure but not nearly as mobile/flexible as my Coleman and cans of Sterno

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2023, 01:24:10 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2023, 10:42:23 AM

I miss Hooky too.

correct along with Gator/Hoople/LBM/NUWC

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2023, 11:55:27 AM

A new ocean is being formed in Africa. Geologists have confirmed that a new ocean is being created as the African continent is split in half. An international effort has revealed that a 35 miles long rift appeared in the Ethiopian deserts of the Far region in 2005 and is probably the start of a brand-new sea.

The recent study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, combines seismic data from the rift formation to demonstrate that it is driven by processes similar to those at the ocean's bottom. The tectonic plates of Africa and Arabia collide in the desert and have been gradually separating for about 30 million years. The same motion has also split the Red Sea, but this is only happening at a rate of a fraction of an inch per year.

Soon humanity might have two motherlands. Africa's 54 nations are being divided according to geologists researching the continent's plate tectonics. The East African Rift, which separates eastern coastal countries like Kenya and Tanzania from most of the continent, passes across Mozambique from the Afar area of northern Ethiopia.


A new study in the journal Nature found that the two pieces of land are separating at a rate of 7 millimeters per year. Nations like Zambia and Uganda will have their own coastlines. Scientists claim that several currently active volcanoes along the river, including the Aloo Dalapila in Ethiopia and the Old wenyolangai in Tanzania, provide new insights into the process. In particular, the Erta Ale volcano in Ethiopia has been erupting nonstop for more than 50 years. The Victoria microplate, the biggest of its kind on Earth and tucked between each side of the rift, has been rotating against the clock for the past two years.

https://youtu.be/WH9BMjJVXVY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 13, 2023, 01:11:55 PM

So you're saying it's a good time to invest in some future beachfront property?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on February 13, 2023, 01:17:59 PM

Lex would be very happy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2023, 02:44:39 PM

Would go long way to combat sea level rise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2023, 03:04:53 PM

you might need to lower your dock

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2023, 03:21:37 PM

Don't have one. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2023, 03:38:44 PM

renting a slip or two at the marina?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2023, 03:39:30 PM

In and out service. It sits on a rack until we want to use it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2023, 06:16:20 PM

Natural gas prices were lower on Monday amid forecasts for mild winter weather and a report that a Freeport LNG export hub in Texas asked federal regulators for permission to resume operations.

Prices dropped as much as 5% then pared losses to trade down 3.3% at $2.43 per million British thermal units, nearing the lowest level since December 2020.


So far this year, natural gas prices have shed more than 30% and nearly 80% from an all-time high hit in August 2022, after Russia cut off gas flows to Europe and sparked an energy crisis there.

The Freeport liquefied natural gas plant first went offline in June of last year due to a fire. That has prevented more domestic supplies from being available for export, weighing down on US prices.

Resuming full operations and exports would help bolster prices as more US supplies would likely be shipped overseas.

But the Freeport facility, the second-biggest US LNG export plant, isn't expected to fully resume operations for months, according to regulators and analysts cited by Reuters. And the Monday filing with the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission only laid out a so-called Phase 1 for a plan to resume commercial activities.

Meanwhile, forecasts for mild winter weather continued to weigh on natural gas prices as demand for the heating fuel lags. 

For now, natural gas is flowing to the Freeport plant even as exports have yet to resume. On Monday, the amount of the super-cooled fuel at the facility touched the highest level since the export hub shut down. Flows were nearing 500 million cubic feet per day, a sharp increase from the average 43 million bcfpd since January.

But the increase is still only a small portion of Freeport's full capability, which can turn 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of gas into LNG when operating at full capacity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2023, 12:37:26 PM

Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland said Tuesday that the harmful effects of climate change being felt today around the world would not be as bad if early colonizers had adopted the environmental practices of the indigenous tribes they eventually supplanted.

"Many of the challenges we face today – a warming planet, the loss of habitat and wildlife, dying coral reefs – these could have been lessened or completely avoided – if early colonists had valued the stewardship practices and environmental wisdom that tribes have cultivated over thousands of years," Haaland said in her prepared remarks in Perth, Australia.

Haaland appeared to be talking about both the situation in America and Australia, as well as other countries that were colonized over the last several hundred years.

Haaland said her mother’s side of the family can be traced back 35 generations to an indigenous tribe that "has called the Southwest United States home for millennia." She said that tribe lived in that region of the world in a sustainable way, and used its knowledge to "escape drought, to feed their families, to care for the earth, and to coexist with the land, water, and wildlife that sustained them."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2023, 01:14:25 PM

Austin City Council members have fired City Manager Spencer Cronk, the city’s chief executive. The vote Wednesday followed criticism of his leadership during an ice storm that left hundreds of thousands without power earlier this month.

The vote was 10-1, with Council Member Natasha Harper-Madison voting against. Council members agreed to a severance package totaling $463,000, which includes one year of the city manager's salary, plus health care and vacation payouts.

While it is unusual for a city manager to be fired, the vote didn't come as a surprise. Last week, Austin City Council members expressed in a closed-door meeting unanimous support for a new city manager. In Austin, the city manager serves as the city's chief executive, overseeing day-to-day operations.

The move to oust Cronk comes just two weeks after Austinites hunkered down as an ice storm pummeled the city, bringing down electric lines and leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power for days.

At the city’s first press conference about the storm, elected officials criticized how staff had communicated to residents.

“I’ve been frustrated and disappointed in the communication that I feel should have been better with the people in the city,” Mayor Kirk Watson said.

Initially, Austin Energy told residents to expect power back within 24 hours — a timeline they later pushed back by several days and then again by more than a week.

“If … it’s going to be 100 hours or more without electricity, people will make different choices. But we have to let them know so that they can prepare for themselves and their families, and we did not do that," Council Member Chito Vela, who represents parts of North Austin, told KUT last week. "I’m very disappointed.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 15, 2023, 01:18:21 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/ziPh66B.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2023, 01:46:07 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2023, 01:14:25 PM

Austin City Council members have fired City Manager Spencer Cronk, the city’s chief executive. The vote Wednesday followed criticism of his leadership during an ice storm that left hundreds of thousands without power earlier this month.

The vote was 10-1, with Council Member Natasha Harper-Madison voting against. Council members agreed to a severance package totaling $463,000, which includes one year of the city manager's salary, plus health care and vacation payouts.

While it is unusual for a city manager to be fired, the vote didn't come as a surprise. Last week, Austin City Council members expressed in a closed-door meeting unanimous support for a new city manager. In Austin, the city manager serves as the city's chief executive, overseeing day-to-day operations.

The move to oust Cronk comes just two weeks after Austinites hunkered down as an ice storm pummeled the city, bringing down electric lines and leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power for days.

At the city’s first press conference about the storm, elected officials criticized how staff had communicated to residents.

“I’ve been frustrated and disappointed in the communication that I feel should have been better with the people in the city,” Mayor Kirk Watson said.

Initially, Austin Energy told residents to expect power back within 24 hours — a timeline they later pushed back by several days and then again by more than a week.

“If … it’s going to be 100 hours or more without electricity, people will make different choices. But we have to let them know so that they can prepare for themselves and their families, and we did not do that," Council Member Chito Vela, who represents parts of North Austin, told KUT last week. "I’m very disappointed.”

Bwahahaha.  Scapegoating the City Manager, when it's actually the city council, and the citizens of Austin, that keep on voting to spend scores of millions of dollars on bike lanes and light rail that nobody uses, rather than maintaining critical infrastructure, is just such classic Austin behavior.

I don't live in the city of Austin and I don't rely on Austin utilities.  Guess who didn't come close to losing power for the entire event, nor the one back in 2021?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2023, 01:50:16 PM

it's all the cause of too many folks (from Cali) moving to Austin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2023, 01:51:58 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2023, 01:50:16 PM

it's all the cause of too many folks (from Cali) moving to Austin

Absolutely true, but there are plenty of homegrown loonies here, too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2023, 01:53:48 PM

Keep Austin Weird comes to mind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2023, 01:59:04 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2023, 01:53:48 PM

Keep Austin Weird comes to mind.

Yup.  I guess they'd rather be weird, than warm, in the winter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 17, 2023, 08:05:42 AM

58 deg last nite at around 11pm,29 deg and a dusting of snow now

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2023, 05:30:02 PM

Having proven the effectiveness of its carbon-emission-free generator technology at a prototype plant in La Porte, Texas, NET Power has taken the next step of developing commercial-size natural gas-powered generators in the United States and Europe. According to Forbes, one of those plants, to be located in Odessa, Texas, will have two beneficial side effects besides generating electricity.

The NET Power technology uses Allam Cycle technology that, instead of belching carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, uses it to turn the generator before sequestering it underground. The technology provides the promise of emission-free fossil fuels.

The Odessa plant will run on cheap natural gas extracted from the nearby Permian Basin oil fields. It will then inject the carbon dioxide it creates back into the same oil fields to coax out oil and gas. The carbon dioxide will remain permanently locked away underground, which will garner another revenue stream, thanks to subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act.

The power plant will run machinery designed to extract carbon dioxide from the air.

On the whole, the NET Power solution to human-caused climate change seems entirely more sensible than other proposed approaches. It uses sound engineering principles, builds on rather than replaces an energy economy built on fossil fuels, and avoids the economic dislocation involved in going full-tilt to renewables.

Recycling rather than expending carbon dioxide also avoids some of the policy prescriptions advanced by some governments that range from annoying to costly. A proposal banning gas stoves, for example, has sparked a revolt from chefs who believe that cooking with gas makes food taste better. The ban makes no sense since electric stoves are still likely to be powered by natural gas or coal-fired power plants.

Then, one has to consider the grandiose (and quite mad) proposal made by a group of scientists from the University of Utah and Harvard to mine the moon for dust and shoot it into orbit around the Earth to block the sun, thus impeding or even reversing global warming. The scientists have not run a cost-benefit analysis for their proposal or an examination of the risks involved. For example, too much moon dust could throw the Earth into a runaway ice age. The proposal would also ruin Earth-based astronomy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 17, 2023, 05:35:08 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 17, 2023, 05:30:02 PM

Then, one has to consider the grandiose (and quite mad) proposal made by a group of scientists from the University of Utah and Harvard to mine the moon for dust and shoot it into orbit around the Earth to block the sun, thus impeding or even reversing global warming. The scientists have not run a cost-benefit analysis for their proposal or an examination of the risks involved. For example, too much moon dust could throw the Earth into a runaway ice age. The proposal would also ruin Earth-based astronomy.

I heard the candle-makers guild lobby was in favor. They may have even penned a petition (https://fee.org/articles/the-candlemakers-petition/) about the matter. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 17, 2023, 05:35:51 PM

That won't work at all, because the moon is made of cheese.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2023, 09:22:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/cz9NzzO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2023, 09:35:06 AM

What's the forecast for July?

(https://i.imgur.com/8uQHggF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2023, 09:37:29 AM

There is no forecast yet, but the average highs are around 94 and the lows are around 75.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2023, 05:59:35 PM

Was an absolutely PERFECT day for golf here today. Mid-high 60s, sunny, slightly breezy but not windy. Couldn't be better.

Tomorrow I have the holiday and my wife is choosing to take the day off, and we're going to head down to San Clemente for lunch in the Jeep, topless. (The Jeep, not my wife nor I.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2023, 06:00:49 PM

Well that's a shame.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2023, 06:03:00 PM

A couple years ago now, I put a soft top on our Jeep that can either fold back just the part that covers the driver and passenger seat, or fold back to full convertible mode.  It's so great for times like this, where it was a high of 42 and rainy 2 days ago, and today it was 71 and sunny. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2023, 06:07:04 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 19, 2023, 06:03:00 PM

A couple years ago now, I put a soft top on our Jeep that can either fold back just the part that covers the driver and passenger seat, or fold back to full convertible mode.  It's so great for times like this, where it was a high of 42 and rainy 2 days ago, and today it was 71 and sunny.

Mine is a 2-door, so when it was a daily driver it was easy enough to raise or lower the soft top. 

Now that it's a toy, I removed the soft top entirely so it's 100% topless. I have a little bikini top I can put on for really hot/sunny days, but it rarely gets used. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2023, 07:09:02 PM

I like the look with the entire top and doors off, so I may yank the soft top when we get later in the Spring, after the rainy season.

I have the full hard top secured by a hoist mounted to the ceiling of the garage, where it has sat for the past 2 years, and it only takes maybe 5-8 minutes to drop it on, if the weather calls for it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2023, 07:15:37 PM

my father had that set up

I might still have the hoist

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 20, 2023, 08:39:06 AM

Had my first outdoor swim of the year on President's Eve. Heated pool, but still. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 20, 2023, 10:29:47 AM

Gonna have a high of around 80, and sunny, today.  Fine Texas winter weather!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2023, 10:38:31 AM

I closed our pool for about 4 weeks in December/January, but it's wide open now. We're in it almost every day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2023, 12:21:19 PM

the weather in San Diego doesn't suck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on February 21, 2023, 12:05:09 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1628040085940871168?s=20

Gulp.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2023, 12:06:05 PM

fun fun

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2023, 12:07:28 PM

maybe I'll just stay in Diego for the weekend

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 21, 2023, 12:38:39 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/rLlNSHS.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 21, 2023, 01:45:34 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 21, 2023, 12:07:28 PM

maybe I'll just stay in Diego for the weekend

Well, weather here is supposed to turn wet. Fri/Sat both predicted 100% chance of rain on my weather app. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2023, 02:44:51 PM

pretty good chance it's better than what's back home in NW Iowa

(https://i.imgur.com/EYmKiZQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 03:07:15 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/WmY0eKr.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2023, 03:25:53 PM

record highs

not good

hopefully there's plenty of humidity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 03:32:57 PM

Hopefully?

It's Florida.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 21, 2023, 05:07:32 PM

My own personal preference-- I like 90 and dry better than 90 and extremely humid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on February 21, 2023, 08:37:21 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 21, 2023, 12:38:39 PM

[img width=234.333 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/rLlNSHS.png[/img]

Perfect timing.  I have to spend next week in Austin for an offsite.  Golf inciuded!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on February 22, 2023, 06:56:09 AM

If the forecast holds it will be the first February on record with no measurable snow in Columbus. High of 71 on Thursday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2023, 07:16:38 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 22, 2023, 06:56:09 AM

If the forecast holds it will be the first February on record with no measurable snow in Columbus. High of 71 on Thursday.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fo9TaYNWIAYBDJ1.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on February 23, 2023, 10:39:24 AM

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-environment/los-angeles-blizzard-warning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 23, 2023, 11:34:50 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 23, 2023, 10:39:24 AM

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-environment/los-angeles-blizzard-warning

Very cool. I'll have to see what the expected snow level will be. Here in Orange County we can see Santiago Peak from pretty much everywhere (visible from my yard), which is just under 5700 ft. The biggest winter storms here typically have snow down to 2500 ft. With an overnight low at my house (~700 ft elevation?) around 40 degrees, we might be getting snow even lower than that this weekend.

We need all the water we can get here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on February 23, 2023, 12:24:15 PM

So....after 502 pages, have we solved the problems related to weather, climate, environment and energy yet? 

Thought I might have seen something on the news about the breakthroughs, but then I remembered I don't watch the news.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 23, 2023, 03:49:00 PM

Quote from: utee94 on February 21, 2023, 05:07:32 PM

My own personal preference-- I like 90 and dry better than 90 and extremely humid.

Well no shit sherlock LOL.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 24, 2023, 07:04:48 AM

Quote from: Gigem on February 23, 2023, 03:49:00 PM

Well no shit sherlock LOL. 

I was thinking the same. Heh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 24, 2023, 09:40:02 AM

Just trying to keep it non-controversial.  So many of you aholes wanna argue about every little thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 24, 2023, 09:40:09 AM

It's 27° right now but it's a dry cold

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 24, 2023, 09:40:52 AM

Personally, I prefer 27 and dry and still, over 37 and wet and windy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 24, 2023, 10:00:22 AM

negative 3 and dry

sending it to Ohio

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on February 24, 2023, 10:35:02 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 24, 2023, 10:00:22 AM

negative 3 and dry

sending it to Ohio

No thanks. You can keep it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 24, 2023, 10:52:07 AM

We hit 78 at my house yesterday and 85 the day before.  

Now we're going to have a high of 52.  Yuck.  Go away, winter!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 24, 2023, 11:18:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 24, 2023, 10:00:22 AM

negative 3 and dry

sending it to Ohio

Ya at least could send a couple of schooners and a runza along with it Bugeater

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 25, 2023, 11:51:26 AM

Another rainy (and chilly) weekend here in Southern California. We're used to seasonal December/January rains but this has extended into something different across the Southwest.

When I was mentioning how lush the vegetation had become along my downtown walks, a coworker of mine who has lived in the county for 25 years was saying he'd never seen the hillsides and ravines of his commute so green. He says what's causing this continuing weather across typically dryer California and Arizona is the eruption of an undersea volcano near Tonga last year. This heated eruption, he said, lifted tens of millions of water vapor into the Pacific's upper atmosphere, which is sourcing our ongoing rains. I haven't taken the time to research this, other than to find a few headlines dating the volcanic eruption near Tonga at January 15, 2022.

San Diego's weather is more like Portland's since the New Year. Crazy thing is my buddy says the experts aren't sure how long this goes on. There's still enough atmospheric vapor for this to continue for months.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 25, 2023, 04:26:02 PM

Send it our way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 25, 2023, 04:36:03 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on February 25, 2023, 11:51:26 AM

Another rainy (and chilly) weekend here in Southern California. We're used to seasonal December/January rains but this has extended into something different across the Southwest.

When I was mentioning how lush the vegetation had become along my downtown walks, a coworker of mine who has lived in the county for 25 years was saying he'd never seen the hillsides and ravines of his commute so green. He says what's causing this continuing weather across typically dryer California and Arizona is the eruption of an undersea volcano near Tonga last year. This heated eruption, he said, lifted tens of millions of water vapor into the Pacific's upper atmosphere, which is sourcing our ongoing rains. I haven't taken the time to research this, other than to find a few headlines dating the volcanic eruption near Tonga at January 15, 2022.

San Diego's weather is more like Portland's since the New Year. Crazy thing is my buddy says the experts aren't sure how long this goes on. There's still enough atmospheric vapor for this to continue for months.

From the street in front of the house...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on February 27, 2023, 05:12:18 PM

February tornadoes in Columbus

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 27, 2023, 10:01:54 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on February 27, 2023, 05:12:18 PM

February tornadoes in Columbus

Not only that, but quarter-sized hail? 

Still not snow... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2023, 10:16:13 PM

twisters and hail and rain and thunder and lightning and wind just go together

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on February 28, 2023, 07:05:23 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 27, 2023, 10:01:54 PM

Not only that, but quarter-sized hail?

Still not snow...

No snow, we didn't get any hail where I am, though my trash cans all blew into the neighbor's yard. His problem now...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2023, 08:29:02 AM

Feasibility for achieving a net zero economy for the U.S. by 2050 | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/03/04/feasibility-for-chieving-a-net-zero-economy-for-the-u-s-in-2050/#more-29799)

This is why I say we need a dose of reality in all of this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2023, 08:31:37 AM

The fourth project listed at the outset may be the hardest. It is clear from the public debate that the citizenry has no idea of the scale of the task of a transition to a net-zero emissions economy in 30 years. This is not only a matter of the costs, human resources and materials, but also the disturbance to everyday lifestyles as the target is approached. Opinion polls indicate that few are willing, let alone able, to pay more than very modest sums, and certainly nothing like that implied by the figure of well over $300,000 per household set out above (for electrical and retrofit actions). Worse, there will be no measurable difference in the future climate as a result of all the spending and hardship in the UK. To make a difference we would need the rest of the world, and in particular the developing world, to come on board. Poorer nations, such as India and the countries of South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, would need financial help to do so. If we assume that Europe and North America are to underwrite the rest of the world’s net-zero activities, then the costs to the UK could rise by a factor of 4.5, assuming the same per capita spend globally.  The resulting cost of getting to the global target then rises to nearly $1.5M per household, and $200T for the whole of the USA, which is a fantasy in practical terms.

By all commonly understood value-for-money measures, climate mitigation exercises simply do not add up. For homes, the $300,000 per household would be recouped almost 100 years (at today’s cost of energy), far longer than any sensible investor would tolerate. Indeed, we would require a command economy during the period to 2050 to secure the finance, skilled workforce, and the materials needed to reach the target. Further, from where we are today, it is not clear how this public acceptance can be achieved on the timescale required.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 08, 2023, 09:40:08 AM

Climate Uncertainty & Risk: the presentation | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/02/24/climate-uncertainty-risk-the-presentation/#more-29751)

The climate “crisis” isn’t what it used to be. Circa 2013 with publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the extreme emissions scenario RCP8.5 was regarded as the business-as-usual emissions scenario, with expected warming of 4 to 5 ^oC by 2100. Now there is growing acceptance that RCP8.5 is implausible, and RCP4.5 is arguably the current business-as-usual emissions scenario according to recent reports issued by the COP 26 and 27. Only a few years ago, an emissions trajectory that followed RCP4.5 with 2 to 3 ^oC warming was regarded as climate policy success. As limiting warming to 2 ^oC seems to be in reach, the goal posts were moved in 2018 to reduce the warming target to 1.5 ^oC.

Climate catastrophe rhetoric now seems linked to extreme weather events. For nearly all of these events, it is difficult to identify any role for human-caused climate change in increasing either their intensity or frequency.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 08, 2023, 10:05:49 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 08, 2023, 09:40:08 AM

Climate Uncertainty & Risk: the presentation | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/02/24/climate-uncertainty-risk-the-presentation/#more-29751)

The climate “crisis” isn’t what it used to be. Circa 2013 with publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the extreme emissions scenario RCP8.5 was regarded as the business-as-usual emissions scenario, with expected warming of 4 to 5 ^oC by 2100. Now there is growing acceptance that RCP8.5 is implausible, and RCP4.5 is arguably the current business-as-usual emissions scenario according to recent reports issued by the COP 26 and 27. Only a few years ago, an emissions trajectory that followed RCP4.5 with 2 to 3 ^oC warming was regarded as climate policy success. As limiting warming to 2 ^oC seems to be in reach, the goal posts were moved in 2018 to reduce the warming target to 1.5 ^oC.

Climate catastrophe rhetoric now seems linked to extreme weather events. For nearly all of these events, it is difficult to identify any role for human-caused climate change in increasing either their intensity or frequency.

(https://i.imgur.com/t8vmdfl.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 08, 2023, 11:01:00 AM

I really do wonder how this will be perceived circa 2050.  My GUESS is some folks will claim victory even though CO2 levels kept rising.  Some will be wringing their hands predicting imminent catastrophe, and many will have largely forgotten it ever was an issue.

That may be more a hope than a prediction though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 10, 2023, 10:14:48 AM

Been much colder/wetter in march so far definately getting february weather. Been high 20s with snow swirling on/off the last two days

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 10:19:32 AM

Definitely spring here, tulips, trees blooming and leafing out, no azaleas yet, really the most impressive time of year in early April here with the flowers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 11:17:55 AM

we could use some local warming here

a few days in the 60s and the golf course will open!

Wednesday is forecast to get to 56, otherwise nothing over 43 the next ten days

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 11:24:28 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/2k4mqNx.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 11:28:44 AM

I assume your golf course is open

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 11:36:09 AM

It never closes, except during a hurricane.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 10, 2023, 04:33:04 PM

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/3/12/1426181234456/998ccc27-8a03-4f5b-9a46-aefb541a4168-620x372.jpeg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d67aca1fb82cfd3d56d8388fee4e8ee0)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2023, 09:25:55 AM

That's called "skip a hole".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 09:44:00 AM

yup, the ball on the left is within the leathers - it's good - mark it a birdie, Dude

the ball on the right, it's a two putt - good par

to the next tee

(unless yer playing for $$$)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 11, 2023, 10:22:39 AM

We used to have one on one of the courses near me

It was not that big maybe 5 or 6 feet

one day someone in our group hit a tee shot over by it which was sunning itself on shore

we told him to pick up but he thought hed just take a club and kind of shoo him back in the water

he got within 10 feet and the gator took two steps toward him and hissed real loud

our man turned around and ran back to us

we laughed at that for years

he was called Steve for Steve Irwin (of the crocadile hunter fame) from then on

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2023, 10:42:55 AM

An adult gator can run about 10 MPH +/-. Unless you can run faster than that, stay away. Even the little ones. The mother is always close by.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 11:57:45 AM

I'm not familiar enough with them to get too close

and I'm not planning to spend that much time around them to gain familiarity 

I've just left a golf ball or two in South Carolina

the way I hit em, golf balls are like Doritos

they'll make more

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 11, 2023, 01:39:47 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2023, 10:42:55 AM

An adult gator can run about 10 MPH +/-. Unless you can run faster than that, stay away. Even the little ones. The mother is always close by.

I can run faster than that. 

Also, I'm still not going near one. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2023, 01:58:36 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 11, 2023, 01:39:47 PM

I can run faster than that.

Also, I'm still not going near one.

Not if you trip.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 11, 2023, 02:05:10 PM

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/h8wRyrYXAt0Dm/giphy.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2023, 02:08:29 PM

Gene pool reduction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2023, 08:57:01 AM

The Pajaro River on the border of Monterey and Santa Cruz counties breached a levee early Saturday, flooding the Pajaro River Valley.

Across the Central Coast’s Monterey County, more than 8,500 people were under evacuation orders and warnings, including roughly 1,700 residents — many of them Latino farmworkers — from the unincorporated community of Pajaro.

“This community is a small, disadvantaged community, mostly Latino, mostly low income farmworkers,” said Monterey County Board of Supervisors Chair Luis Alejo. He added that this same flooding happened in 1985. “It's heartbreaking to see the community under flood waters today. And we know that these residents are going to go through some challenging times over the next several months to try to get their homes repaired and make them habitable again.”


He also said emergency staff is predicting another major atmospheric storm on Tuesday, meaning that the evacuation and the the flooding of Pajaro River is likely to continue for several days.

"A county spokesperson told me the entire town is under some level of water, but we can't say exactly how much," said Linden in an interview with KQED.

Linden said he also spoke with residents on the Watsonville side of the river which hasn’t flooded. Many residents there had evacuated their homes in the middle of the night, and many had slept in their cars.


Torres said the levee system had “never been built to capacity.”

“It was built back in the '40s, and I think the bigger problem is just that there's been a lack of focus on maintenance to better it,” he said. “Some [projects] were supposed to be coming down the pipeline soon, but not soon enough.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2023, 09:24:29 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 11:57:45 AM

I'm not familiar enough with them to get too close

and I'm not planning to spend that much time around them to gain familiarity

I've just left a golf ball or two in South Carolina

the way I hit em, golf balls are like Doritos

they'll make more

wuss,never had to worry about gators,poison ivory was a bitch though

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2023, 09:55:14 AM

nettles, poison ivy and oak, burrs and brambles I can deal with

insects are worse - fire ants, hornets, yellow jackets, wasps, bumble bees

F the reptiles

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2023, 11:27:25 AM

Poison ivy used to have no impact on me, until it did.  Had to see my doctor when it did, it was really bad.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 12, 2023, 11:28:15 AM

have you ever run into a momma goose

they are flat mean

had one chase me all the way back to my cart once

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2023, 12:40:56 PM

way too many of those varmints on my home course

Canadians

They shit all over everything

damn aggressive when nesting and with young'uns 

I've had to whack em in the neck with a club to be able to play my ball when my buddies wouldn't allow a drop away from the goose no closer to the hole

yup, we were playing for quarters

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 12, 2023, 01:04:58 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2023, 02:08:29 PM

Gene pool reduction.

I like to think of it as the law of natural selection

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 10:33:26 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration said Monday it is approving the controversial major Willow oil project on Alaska’s petroleum-rich North Slope, one of President Joe Biden’s most consequential climate choices that is likely to draw condemnation from environmentalists who say it flies in the face of the Democratic president’s pledges.

The announcement comes a day after the administration, in a big conservation move, said it would bar or limit drilling in some other areas of Alaska and the Arctic Ocean.

Biden’s Willow plan would allow three drill sites initially, the sources said, which project developer ConocoPhillips has said would include about 219 total wells. A fourth drill site proposed for the project would be denied. The company has said it considers the three-site option workable.

Houston-based ConocoPhillips will relinquish rights to about 68,000 acres of existing leases in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.


_________________________________________________ _

Good news for Texas and gas prices

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 10:42:43 AM

BLM recommends trims to Willow plan, bringing huge oil project closer to development - Alaska Beacon (https://alaskabeacon.com/2023/02/02/blm-recommends-trims-to-willow-plan-bringing-huge-oil-project-closer-to-development/)

Est. production 180,000 BPD, not a huge amount in the overal scheme.

I'm curious as to why folks think this would worsen climate change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2023, 10:47:52 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 10:33:26 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration said Monday it is approving the controversial major Willow oil project on Alaska’s petroleum-rich North Slope, one of President Joe Biden’s most consequential climate choices that is likely to draw condemnation from environmentalists who say it flies in the face of the Democratic president’s pledges.

The announcement comes a day after the administration, in a big conservation move, said it would bar or limit drilling in some other areas of Alaska and the Arctic Ocean.

Biden’s Willow plan would allow three drill sites initially, the sources said, which project developer ConocoPhillips has said would include about 219 total wells. A fourth drill site proposed for the project would be denied. The company has said it considers the three-site option workable.

Houston-based ConocoPhillips will relinquish rights to about 68,000 acres of existing leases in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.


_________________________________________________ _

Good news for Texas and gas prices

Might need a pipeline. Or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 10:51:48 AM

not a big deal really

let's see if the messaging makes a difference

at the pump

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 10:56:51 AM

The US produces nearly 12 MBPD per day.  This project might start pumping in 4 years 0.18 MBPD.

It's basically rounding error, and we're not even talking global oil production.

One of the amusing factoids is how US oil production surged when Obama was President and he never seemed to take credit for that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 11:40:18 AM

wasn't the message he wanted to send

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2023, 07:49:23 PM

Beautiful late Winter snow coming down now,  the last two mornings woke up to snow but the ground is above freezing so it melted. This is sticking,more winter weather 2 weeks into March than we had in February

(https://i.imgur.com/lciMN9u.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 08:25:03 PM

Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics. These columns of vapor move with the weather, carrying an amount of water vapor roughly equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

___________________________________

how's come I don't remember hearing about these rivers in the past?
I just don't pay attention?
Maybe youse guys haven't discussed them enough?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 13, 2023, 08:44:42 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 08:25:03 PM

Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics. These columns of vapor move with the weather, carrying an amount of water vapor roughly equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

___________________________________

how's come I don't remember hearing about these rivers in the past?
I just don't pay attention?
Maybe youse guys haven't discussed them enough?

I dunno. But these stupid things might make my rounds of golf on both Wednesday and Sunday very wet...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 08:57:18 PM

hopefully the reservoir fills up and the golf course can sprinkle the fairways this fall when things dry out again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2023, 08:09:36 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 08:25:03 PM

Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics. These columns of vapor move with the weather, carrying an amount of water vapor roughly equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

___________________________________

how's come I don't remember hearing about these rivers in the past?
I just don't pay attention?
Maybe youse guys haven't discussed them enough?

Apparently the term dates to 1992.  It reminds me of "bomb cyclones", another term weather folks started using a few years back.  Obviously neither condition is new, but the terms are fairly new.  It sounds fancier than saying "A lot of moisture is headed out way and it's going to rain a lot."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2023, 08:12:19 AM

very dramatic

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2023, 08:20:48 AM

We need rain. Been about 40 days now and our irrigation ponds are running low.

Apparently, the master HOA board is looking at the County to provide reclaimed water to our entire community. 

I will go to the next meeting and tell them how it should be done, so they (I) don't get raped by a contractor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2023, 08:23:27 AM

I thought you got showers there 3to 4 times a week?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2023, 08:30:56 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 14, 2023, 08:23:27 AM

I thought you got showers there 3to 4 times a week?

Not between January and May.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 14, 2023, 08:53:00 AM

24 deg now and just under 2" snow might get out of the 20s. One ski operation in the area shut down for the season the other is cashing in nicely

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2023, 08:58:28 AM

Got down to 30°F here this morning.  I hope the fruit trees are not yet blooming, but a lot of stuff already is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 14, 2023, 09:02:29 AM

Ya I saw some sprouts from bulbs prolly the easter lillies

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2023, 07:55:41 AM

30°F again today, this is unusual for us this late.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2023, 08:26:01 AM

We're at 60 now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2023, 09:09:25 AM

50 degrees in deadwood this morning 

Snow coming in tonight 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2023, 08:57:55 AM

The Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown has one singular mission: to track and countdown the world's remaining coal plant units as decision-makers across governments and the private sector work together to accelerate the transition to a clean energy future.

https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/ (https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/)

6,565
Global Number of Operating Plant Units
+0.02%

Net Change in 1 Year

2,082,581
Top Global Coal Plant Capacity by MW
+0.93%

Net Change in 1 Year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2023, 09:15:30 AM

I've suggested before a focus on shuttering coal plants, and building zero new ones, at least in the US.  That would provide some benefits even if climate change has been exaggerated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2023, 09:58:57 AM

Commie,at least build more nuke facilities

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2023, 10:01:59 AM

That would be the idea, replace coal with nukes of standard design so you don't have to go through long approval processes aside from location.  The SMR concept might be a way to go also.  The Vogtle 3 plant is starting up now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2023, 08:32:43 AM

24 yesterday when I got up,20 today. Snow fell and is falling now

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 19, 2023, 08:43:52 AM

This rainy spring has filled up all of our lakes to the brim. Waterfalls running, the works. 

(https://stateparks.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2023/03/Gunlock2-scaled.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2023, 08:56:44 AM

29°F here this morning, unseasonal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2023, 09:02:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2023, 09:15:30 AM

I've suggested before a focus on shuttering coal plants, and building zero new ones, at least in the US.  That would provide some benefits even if climate change has been exaggerated.

Small nuke plants are the answer.

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2023, 10:01:59 AM

That would be the idea, replace coal with nukes of standard design so you don't have to go through long approval processes aside from location.  The SMR concept might be a way to go also.  The Vogtle 3 plant is starting up now.

It would be nice to have a standard design, but each site can be so very different. If we could find a way to make each site at least similar, that would help a ton. The key is to find bedrock and a continuous water supply.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2023, 09:03:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2023, 08:56:44 AM

29°F here this morning, unseasonal.

55 here. Same thing.

High around 67. Much cooler than normal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2023, 09:05:30 AM

Sure, have the specs required for potential sites clarified.  Avoid earthquake zones and anything near the ocean.  Build them where current coal plants are when possible.  But it won't happen, so no use dreaming about it.

Coal is a very dirty fuel from start to finish.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2023, 09:25:01 AM

BERLIN (AP) — Publication of a major new United Nations report on climate change is being held up by a battle between rich and developing countries over emissions targets and financial aid to vulnerable nations.

The report by hundreds of the world’s top scientists was supposed to be approved by government delegations Friday at the end of a weeklong meeting in the Swiss town of Interlaken.


https://apnews.com/article/un-climate-change-science-report-ipcc-meeting-e3469f69980fe949eb21b4bc25cb018f (https://apnews.com/article/un-climate-change-science-report-ipcc-meeting-e3469f69980fe949eb21b4bc25cb018f)

Among the thorniest issues at the current meeting are how to define which nations count as vulnerable developing countries, making them eligible for cash from a ‘loss and damage’ fund agreed at the last U.N. climate talks in Egypt. Delegates have also battled over figures stating how much greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by over the coming years, and how to include artificial or natural carbon removal efforts in the equations.

As the country that has released the biggest amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere since industrialization, the United States has pushed back strongly against the notion of historic responsibility for climate change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2023, 09:32:28 AM

They should hold another meeting to discuss it ...

... preferably in some beach resort area.

Talk talk talk, no realistic plan anywhere in sight, and failing badly to meet various paper commitments.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2023, 09:34:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2023, 09:32:28 AM

They should hold another meeting to discuss it ...

... preferably in some beach resort area.

Talk talk talk, no realistic plan anywhere in sight, and failing badly to meet various paper commitments.

With enough room to accommodate parking for 1000 private jets.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2023, 11:53:23 AM

Lake effect snow is a thing with in 2-3 miles from the lake we got about 2 " and sticking. But a mile south it'sjust blowing around with no accumulation. Great Lakes keeps temps a little warmer but wind picks up the moisture

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2023, 12:50:50 PM

sending cold and wind your way

yer welcome

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2023, 04:52:46 PM

Good golf weather today. Mid-60s and overcast. I prefer mid-60s and sunny, but I'm not complaining. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2023, 06:07:18 PM

https://youtu.be/YPd1o8C1AWQ

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 05:18:05 AM

$50 Trillion?1/???  Sounds like a reasonable guess to me, but that's $2 trillion a year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 20, 2023, 07:04:40 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 19, 2023, 12:50:50 PM

sending cold and wind your way

yer welcome

well it's 26 now but supposed to break and get nice. High 40s today and 50s until Friday,so :d030:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2023, 08:43:28 AM

well, the 26 was what we sent

high 40s here yesterday and forecast for the next ten days

no 60s or 70s

golf course remains closed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2023, 09:00:55 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/TFhYFJL.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on March 20, 2023, 09:06:31 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2023, 09:00:55 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/TFhYFJL.png)

Man that sucks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2023, 09:08:41 AM

Love it. Too cold in the mornings though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2023, 09:09:31 AM

thankfully, doesn't list the humidity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 09:10:42 AM

IPCC report on climate: UN scientists call for course correction (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/20/ipcc-report-on-climate-un-scientists-call-for-course-correction.html)

The Dubai climate summit will see the U.N. publish a “global stocktake,” the result of a two-year process that started at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/13/cop26-countries-strike-climate-deal-at-un-summit-to-limit-heating.html). The purpose of which will be to assess how governments are doing with their efforts to tackle the climate crisis.

Speaking in France’s capital earlier this month, COP President-Designate Sultan al-Jaber said the conclusions of this assessment were already clear. “We are way off track,” al-Jaber said. “The bottom line is this: the world needs to cut emissions by 43% in the next seven years to keep 1.5 alive.”

This is so predictable, so annoying, so transparent, and so silly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on March 20, 2023, 09:24:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2023, 09:08:41 AM

Love it. Too cold in the mornings though.

Man to each their own. Being hot in March is the pits for me. But I guess that's why I live in Ohio.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 10:28:51 AM

12th atmospheric river this winter to bring more snow, rain to California | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3908340-12th-atmospheric-river-this-winter-to-bring-more-snow-rain-to-california/)

The string of atmospheric rives in California left some part’s of the state with above-average totals of rainfall, with Los Angeles totaling 24.49 inches of rain since November, which is more than double its historical average of 11.78 inches, according to Accuweather (https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/storms-continue-to-hound-california-with-flooding-rain-mountain-snow/1499615).
The onslaught of atmospheric rivers this year in the state has cut down the the long-time drought with only 36 percent of the state in drought as of last week, compared to 98 percent in early October.
The U.S. Drought Monitor (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA) reported that no part of California is in an extreme drought, down from 35 percent of the state being in an extreme drought three months ago.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2023, 10:49:29 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on March 20, 2023, 09:24:19 AM

Man to each their own. Being hot in March is the pits for me. But I guess that's why I live in Ohio.

We've acclimated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 11:04:37 AM

I enjoy seasonality.  I just don't want Cincy winters, at all.  Their summers got pretty bad as well.

California places have some near perfect weather I think overall, SD, and the like.  Hawaii is not bad in places, the weather near Kona is pretty constant and nice.  It does get hazy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 20, 2023, 11:49:01 AM

Dont move to Texas

Its too hot

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2023, 12:27:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 11:04:37 AM

I enjoy seasonality.  I just don't want Cincy winters, at all.  Their summers got pretty bad as well.

California places have some near perfect weather I think overall, SD, and the like.  Hawaii is not bad in places, the weather near Kona is pretty constant and nice.  It does get hazy.

Yep. SoCal weather, anywhere remotely near the coast, is perfect. 

In the "winter", it's temperate. Typically a low in the 40s and high around 60 in the coldest months. The hottest portion of summer for me might get into the mid-high 90s, but it IS actually a dry heat, which means that there's no moisture in the air to trap heat, so it actually becomes quite cool in the evening once the sun starts fading. I've always found that anywhere with a lot of humidity, it just stays hot all night. 

Of course, there's June Gloom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_Gloom). Granted, if the worst weather you have to complain about is just mildly overcast, life is pretty darn good...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 12:35:00 PM

Humid air is less dense than drier air ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2023, 12:40:42 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 12:35:00 PM

Humid air is less dense than drier air ...

That is true, but I think the persistent heat in the evenings is more due to the high specific heat of water. The water vapor in the air retains heat. Dry air may be more dense, but it dissipates heat more quickly. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 12:58:39 PM

Water vapor is a GHG, so it does trap heat and reduce reemission.  That may be the larger factor.

Clouds obviously do this even more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 20, 2023, 01:00:11 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 12:35:00 PM

Humid air is less dense than drier air ...

wow I would have thought just the opposit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 01:08:44 PM

Most people do because of how humid air "feels".  But H2O has a lower molecular weight than oxygen or nitrogen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2023, 03:23:13 PM

why a baseball or a golf ball will fly farther in humid air

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 20, 2023, 03:35:41 PM

When I've visited desert locales, one thing that surprised me was how quickly the heat dissipates once the sun goes down.

You can go into a restaurant at 7pm in heat that is just WAY too hot for this life-long midwesterner and come out a couple hours later needing a winter coat. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2023, 03:54:47 PM

the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco 

nearly froze to death at an A's game in Oakland one evening

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 04:13:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 20, 2023, 03:54:47 PM

the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco

Mark Twain ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 20, 2023, 04:59:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2023, 04:13:44 PM

Mark Twain ...

my favority Twain quote

Man is the only animal that blushes or has a need to

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2023, 05:34:36 AM

Pretty damn cold out right now. 48 degrees. Pool is at 76. Got company coming so gotta heat it up. 


(https://i.imgur.com/1M1qaD0.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 21, 2023, 06:15:12 AM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 20, 2023, 03:35:41 PM

When I've visited desert locales, one thing that surprised me was how quickly the heat dissipates once the sun goes down.

You can go into a restaurant at 7pm in heat that is just WAY too hot for this life-long midwesterner and come out a couple hours later needing a winter coat.

Yeah, you need to change clothes the instant the sun goes down. 

Then there's the reverse phenomenon, where people will dress warm because it's still cold in the mornings, but then the sun comes up and they are completely screwed. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2023, 06:48:46 AM

From the NYT:

1) The world is on track to surpass a significant level of warming. The world is likely to hit what scientists consider relatively safe levels of warming — 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures — by the early 2030s, the report warned. Countries could still take steps to prevent that, by slashing greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and no longer adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by the 2050s. But the required measures are so extreme that they seem increasingly unlikely, many experts say.

2) On the current track, brace for more disasters. Continued warming will mean more catastrophic flooding, deadly heat waves, crop-destroying droughts and other extreme weather. Some of those effects are already visible (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/8J-UwWW_SszXzzml9e6NXw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRl_A8tP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wOS8wNy9icmllZmluZy9jbGltYXRlLWNoYW5nZS1oZWF0LXdhdmVzLXVzLWV1cm9wZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzAzMjEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9ODgyNjImbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMjgzNTEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmQILYoZZOZMmHBSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). Last year, record-breaking heat waves hit much of the world, including the U.S. and Europe, and floods submerged a third of Pakistan.

3) The world has made some real progress. In the past, climate reports warned that warming could surpass four degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. Today, the Earth is on a trajectory of around two to three degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), thanks to the uptake of cleaner energy and to projections that coal use will decline. That difference of a few degrees can, like a fever, prevent more catastrophic events. And as my colleague Somini Sengupta noted, pivoting away from fossil fuels is the fastest way to stop global warming (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/uru8g7Kw-3Y9xq6tqRmWDg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRl_A8tP0TZaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wMy8yMC9jbGltYXRlL2dsb2JhbC13YXJtaW5nLWlwY2MuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMwMzIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTg4MjYyJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTI4MzUxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpkCC2KGWTmTJhwUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~).

Item 3 is simply because the worst model projection was discarded, we have not made any real "progress", one can see how CO2 levels continue to rise at record rates.  This is disingenuous.  Anything based on "projections" is no sign of "real progress" either.


And of course any relationship between CC and extreme weather events is rather tenuous.  The predicted rise in hurricane strength and number has not as yet happened.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2023, 06:50:25 AM

Senate Budget Committee Hearing | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/03/19/senate-budget-committee-hearing/#more-29872)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2023, 07:12:59 AM

I just turned the heat on. Burn some energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2023, 07:35:15 AM

It's been below freezing here for several days in the AM, heat has been on of course.  We get a lot of sun in the AM which heats the place up nicely (and keep curtins drawn in summer).  Our friends with south facing condos get hammered in summer all day but have various blinds of course.  They rarely need heat in winter except at night.

We're off for a short trip up into the mountains, going to Gibb's Gardens again to see what it's like in early spring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2023, 09:56:32 AM

Just got back from camping out at Big Bend National Park in West Texas.  It got down to 36 degrees in the basin, and sub-freezing up at the top of the Chisos mountains.  It snowed up there all day on Saturday, which is pretty rare in West Texas.  It even snowed on us down in the valley.

The RV stayed a comfortable 70 degrees throughout.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2023, 10:50:14 AM

I swear, my wife has gills. She can swim forever.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2023, 11:39:51 AM

Senate Budget Committee Hearing Today | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/03/22/senate-budget-committee-hearing-today/#more-29891)

Insurance markets are influenced by our perceptions of climate risk. Referring to climate change as a “crisis” is at odds with professional judgments of climate risk.
The so-called “climate crisis” isn’t what it used to be. In 2013 in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the extreme emissions scenario RCP8.5 was regarded as a business-as-usual scenario. With expected warming of 4 to 5 degrees Centigrade by 2100. Now, there is general acceptance that this extreme scenario is implausible. The value of baseline warming currently used by the UN Conference of Parties has been reduced by half, to 2.5 degrees by 2100. This is an additional 1.3 degrees above current temperatures.

It’s difficult to overstate the importance of the shift in expectations for extreme weather events that is associated with rejection of this extreme scenario. Rejecting this extreme scenario has rendered obsolete much of the climate impacts literature and assessments of the past decade, that have focused on this scenario.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on March 24, 2023, 03:13:29 PM

https://twitter.com/MPRnews/status/1638701845563490304?s=20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2023, 08:36:12 AM

BERLIN (AP) — Voters in Berlin go to the polls this weekend to decide on a proposal that would force the city government to drastically ramp up the German capital’s climate goals.

Sunday’s referendum, which has attracted considerable financial support from U.S.-based philanthropists, calls for Berlin to become climate neutral by 2030, meaning that within less than eight years the city would not be allowed to contribute further to global warming. An existing law sets the deadline for achieving that goal at 2045, which is also Germany’s national target.

The center-right Christian Democratic Union, which won a recent local election in the capital and is likely to lead its new government, opposes the earlier target but would be bound to implement it if the referendum passes.

Jessamine Davis, a spokesperson for the grassroots group that initiated the vote, said Berlin’s current target isn’t in line with the 2015 Paris climate accord, which aims to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared with the pre-industrial average.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2023, 09:01:19 AM

Climate goals, yay.  Paper not worth paper.  What happens if they pass these climate goals and then don't meet them?

Hand wrining?  Harsh language?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2023, 01:43:57 PM

Oliver Stone is half right regarding nuclear energy and climate change | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3913117-oliver-stone-is-half-right-regarding-nuclear-energy-and-climate-change/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2023, 01:46:05 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/24/climate-doomers-ipcc-un-report/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2023, 01:52:37 PM

There are different flavors of doomers. Some are middle-aged and have been influenced by outspoken scientists — like retired ecologist Guy McPherson (https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/) — who claim that human extinction, or at least the breakdown of society, is imminent. (“I can’t imagine that there will be a human left on the Earth in 10 years,” McPherson has said (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqIt93dDG1M&list=PLAmiIwFY65HvhVBlUpgv4BG_BDbSW5KOy&index=36).) These doomers drift toward conspiracy theories, sometimes claiming that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is downplaying the seriousness of the issue.


That piece is "funny", to me, another completely unrealistic assessment and label with no purpose.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2023, 02:42:07 PM

Emissions and CO2 Concentration: An Evidence Based Approach | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/03/24/emissions-and-co2-concentration-an-evidence-based-approach/#more-29903)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2023, 09:07:42 AM

Seems like June, without the rain.

(https://i.imgur.com/ALW4JW1.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 08:12:17 AM

State of emergency declared in Georgia after tornadoes hit South | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3919225-state-of-emergency-declared-in-georgia-after-tornadoes-hit-south/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 08:53:53 AM

EU was set to ban internal combustion engine cars. Then Germany suddenly changed its mind | CNN Business (https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/24/cars/eu-combustion-engine-debate-climate-intl/index.html)

Scientists say reducing planet-heating pollution [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]is non-negotiable (https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/20/world/ipcc-synthesis-report-climate-intl/index.html)[/url] if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels and avoid a key tipping point beyond which extreme flooding, droughts and wildfires will likely become much more frequent.[/font][/size][/color]

Despite such warnings and the pledges made in the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change, global emissions have continued to rise, barring a dip in 2020.

Talks are continuing to persuade Germany to support the law. In its current draft form, the law would allow cars running on e-fuels to be sold after 2035, but only if they were fitted with technology preventing them from running on gasoline or diesel.

The 1.5°C goal is not achievable, simply put, no matter what.  And to claim exceeding that arbitrary goal means MUCH more frequent adverse weather events is simply inane and stupid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 09:58:20 AM

what percent of the total co2 in the air is man made

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:03:08 AM

The typical baseline figure I see is 280 ppm, and we're at 410 ppm now (0.04%), so about a third.  That 280 ppm is responsible for warming the planet about 59°F, or so folks say.

So, it's a fairly large influencer.  Water vapor is also a factor, a confounding one at that.  This is partially why the models get so complex.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:06:20 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:03:08 AM

The typical baseline figure I see is 280 ppm, and we're at 410 ppm now (0.04%), so about a third.  That 280 ppm is responsible for warming the planet about 59°F, or so folks say.

So, it's a fairly large influencer.  Water vapor is also a factor, a confounding one at that.  This is partially why the models get so complex.

of the total co2 in our air what percent is put there by man

I didnt see that in your post

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:12:04 AM

If 0.028% is baseline and everything over that is manmade, we're not at .0410%, so the differrence is about a third, or 0.0013% of the total atmospheric gas level.

One can verify that 130 ppm is manmade by isotopic analysis of the CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:18:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:12:04 AM

If 0.028% is baseline and everything over that is manmade, we're not at .0410%, so the differrence is about a third, or 0.0013% of the total atmospheric gas level.

One can verify that 130 ppm is manmade by isotopic analysis of the CO2.

some how we are missing each other

if you coulds bottle up all the co2 in our air that would be equal to some number

of that number how much was put there by man's activities

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:19:10 AM

I don't know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:25:20 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:19:10 AM

I don't know.

most scientists agree that the percentage of man made co2 ito total co2 in our atmosphere is less then 4%

meaning 96% is nonman made

doesnt it seem like we are getting excited over a very small amout percentage wise made by man

why is the 4% determined to be the main cause of climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:29:58 AM

It's WAY WAY WAY less than 4%.  The current total level is 0.041%, or about 410 ppm.  It's a VERY minor component in the atmosphere, as I stated above.

The primary other gases don't absorb in the IR region and so are not greenhouse gases.  A VERY minor component can have an enormous impact on things.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:33:53 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:29:58 AM

It's WAY WAY WAY less than 4%.  The current total level is 0.041%, or about 410 ppm.  It's a VERY minor component in the atmosphere, as I stated above.

The primary other gases don't absorb in the IR region and so are not greenhouse gases.  A VERY minor component can have an enormous impact on things.

why would that small percentage be considered to be the main cause of climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2023, 11:37:39 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:33:53 AM

whay would that small percentage be considered to be the main cause of climate change

Government control.


They've taken care of everything for us.

They are the priests!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:38:24 AM

CO2 is a very potent absorber in the infrared range.  As I noted above, the "normal" level keeps us much warmer than if it was zero.  

I have found that both climate alarmists and climate deniers often don't understand the very basic aspects of climate science, but they both have strong opinions (based on their politics in the main).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:47:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:38:24 AM

CO2 is a very potent absorber in the infrared range.  As I noted above, the "normal" level keeps us much warmer than if it was zero. 

I have found that both climate alarmists and climate deniers often don't understand the very basic aspects of climate science, but they both have strong opinions (based on their politics in the main).

I dont pretent to know what a scientist knows but again my question is why has the very small percents of co2 created by man been determined to be the main cause of climate change

to me thats like saying if a man consumes 96 oz of beer and then drinks 4 more oz of beer it was that last 4 oz that made him drunk

its crap like this that makes some folks feel that its just a political ploy to gain power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 11:53:46 AM

Well, to explain why I'd have to post some IR spectra which might not make much sense.  It is well known that CO2 is a potent "greenhouse" gas, it's well known why this is, and it's understandable that a tiny change in its concentration COULD have significant impacts on our climate.  Things we know, as facts:

1.  CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas (methane is more potent, but present at much lower concentrations).  It keeps out climate about 59°F warmer than it would be without it.
2.  The level of CO2 has risen from about 280 to about 410 ppm.
3.  Nearly all of this rise is due to burning fossil fuels.

What is less well known is how much this increase is going to impact our climate as the models are hyper complex.  "We" could be over, or under, estimating the impact.

Another thing apparent to me is that "we" aren't really doing much of anything about this beyond throwing money at it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 11:59:22 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:18:04 AM

of that number how much was put there by man's activities

About a third. As CD said.

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:25:20 AM

most scientists agree that the percentage of man made co2 ito total co2 in our atmosphere is less then 4%

meaning 96% is nonman made

doesnt it seem like we are getting excited over a very small amout percentage wise made by man

why is the 4% determined to be the main cause of climate change

This is incorrect. The fact is that some carbon in our atmosphere is good and normal, and our planet has a carbon cycle that for the last milion years has held carbon between about 250 and 300 ppm. The carbon cycle means that there are plenty of natural CO2 emissions on the planet, which is where the 4% comes from. And the planet is capable of pulling the same amount of carbon out of the air each year as naturally emit. It's in balance. 

Based on some research I've done related to this 4% claim, it's believed that on an annual basis, 96-97% of the CO2 emitted is from natural sources, and only 3-4% is man-made. Which is a different claim than only 4% being due to man. 

But the issue is that the planet doesn't have any way to handle that extra 3-4%, because it's in excess to the natural carbon cycle's capacity to pull out of the air. Hence, the concentration in the atmosphere is accumulating based on the extra 3-4% that is emitted every year. 

So if you ask about the rise from 280-410 ppm over the industrial era, I would state that the rise is almost entirely, if not entirely, caused by humans. Even if it it was only 3-4% of emissions per year, that can add up QUITE a bit of accumulation over the span of 150+ years. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 12:02:38 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 11:47:47 AM

I dont pretent to know what a scientist knows but again my question is why has the very small percents of co2 created by man been determined to be the main cause of climate change

to me thats like saying if a man consumes 96 oz of beer and then drinks 4 more oz of beer it was that last 4 oz that made him drunk

its crap like this that makes some folks feel that its just a political ploy to gain power

No, it's based on the idea that your liver has the ability to process a certain amount of alcohol per hour. 

For the sake of argument, we will assume that it's 1 beer per hour. Your liver can process that amount of alcohol in perpetuity. 

If you drink 1 beer per hour, you'll never be drunk. Your BAC will hover just barely north of zero. If you drink 1.04 beers per hour, your BAC will slowly but surely increase until the point at which you're completely hammered. It might take a while, but if you can't process the extra alcohol, it stays in your blood. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on March 27, 2023, 12:05:35 PM

Not so sure about that.  The world is still warming up from the last ice age and Maunder minimum.  Like your beer carbon dioxide is less soluble in warm ocean water and there is also an increase in microbial respiration with temperature.   Microbes releasing CO2 from old rock would also cause a relative depletion of C13 in atmospheric CO2.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2023, 12:09:59 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 12:02:38 PM

No, it's based on the idea that your liver has the ability to process a certain amount of alcohol per hour.

For the sake of argument, we will assume that it's 1 beer per hour. Your liver can process that amount of alcohol in perpetuity.

If you drink 1 beer per hour, you'll never be drunk. Your BAC will hover just barely north of zero. If you drink 1.04 beers per hour, your BAC will slowly but surely increase until the point at which you're completely hammered. It might take a while, but if you can't process the extra alcohol, it stays in your blood.

Need a really large stomach.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 12:14:44 PM

Quote from: Temp430 on March 27, 2023, 12:05:35 PM

Not so sure about that.  The world is still warming up from the last ice age and Maunder minimum.  Like your beer carbon dioxide is less soluble in warm ocean water and there is also an increase in microbial respiration with temperature.  Microbes releasing CO2 from old rock would also cause a relative depletion of C13 in atmospheric CO2. 

Well, again, natural concentrations tend to be between 250 and 300 ppm, over the last million years (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/how-do-we-know-build-carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-caused-humans).


(https://i.imgur.com/VB1r04N.png)
And now we're at 410. 

If there are microbes releasing carbon from old rock to get us to 410 and deplete C-13, these microbes are doing something they've never done in a million years. While at the same time we KNOW we're burning a metric $#!+-ton of coal and natural gas that has been locked under the earth's surface for most of history that emits CO2. 

I'd venture that we can apply Occam's razor here and rule out the microbes. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 12:30:08 PM

So if I understand right without man the world is in sinc but along comes man who dumps an additional 4% into the atmosphere and all of a sudden the world doesnt know what to do with it 

the first 96% is fine and mother nature says no problem I got this but adding 4% more and mother nature says hey man I cant handle that 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 12:37:56 PM

I've always wondered why people use the word "metric" in front of ton (or $hit-ton) in order to represent extreme emphasis.

While it's true that a metric ton represents more weight than a standard American ton, it's really only ~200 lbs more, which is only 10%.  To me, that's not enough of a difference to warrant using it for extreme emphasis.

You could also say a "English long $hit-ton" because an English "long" ton is also roughly 200 lbs or 10% larger than an American "short" ton.  But again, I don't feel that a mere 10% translates to extreme emphasis.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 12:42:38 PM

it just sounds cool

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 12:47:52 PM

The French use metric units to make their country seem bigger.  You see a sign "Marseille 440" and think it must be a ways away, but it's not really that far.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 12:55:18 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 12:42:38 PM

it just sounds cool

Yep.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 01:02:39 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 12:30:08 PM

So if I understand right without man the world is in sinc but along comes man who dumps an additional 4% into the atmosphere and all of a sudden the world doesnt know what to do with it

the first 96% is fine and mother nature says no problem I got this but adding 4% more and mother nature says hey man I cant handle that

I don't think you're understanding. 

Man didn't add 4% to the total CO2 in the atmosphere. Man added 4% every year for over a century* and it has progressively built up to the point where man is now responsible for roughly 1/3 of the total CO2 in the atmosphere. 

A better example than beer. We all need to eat, right? So let's say you're 25 years old, and your metabolism is such that you burn 2500 calories every day. But each day, you consume a mere 4% over that, to be 2600 calories per day. And then 10 years later, you wonder why you're 100# overweight? After all, it's only 4%?!?! Well, that 4% is additive, not total. 

 (* It probably hasn't been a consistent 4% over the last 150 years, I think that's a current number instead.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 01:06:03 PM

Quote from: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 12:37:56 PM

But again, I don't feel that a mere 10% translates to extreme emphasis.

I feel the same way about a mere whatever % increase in CO2 or a mere 1% increase in global temp average

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 01:07:50 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 01:02:39 PM

(* It probably hasn't been a consistent 4% over the last 150 years, I think that's a current number instead.)

cause that would be a SHIT TON more if it was 4% over the last 150 years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 01:09:53 PM

The alleged increase in global T is 1.1°C thus far.  That is ~0.3% on an absolute scale.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 01:17:47 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 01:02:39 PM

I don't think you're understanding.

Man didn't add 4% to the total CO2 in the atmosphere. Man added 4% every year for over a century* and it has progressively built up to the point where man is now responsible for roughly 1/3 of the total CO2 in the atmosphere.

A better example than beer. We all need to eat, right? So let's say you're 25 years old, and your metabolism is such that you burn 2500 calories every day. But each day, you consume a mere 4% over that, to be 2600 calories per day. And then 10 years later, you wonder why you're 100# overweight? After all, it's only 4%?!?! Well, that 4% is additive, not total.

(* It probably hasn't been a consistent 4% over the last 150 years, I think that's a current number instead.)

Im not buying this

when we talk about non man co2 at 96% that too is being replenished each year as well

that 96% didnt just happen one time and bingo lasted in the atmosphere for ever

to suggest mans co2 never goes away and just builds up for 100 years does not nake sense

i

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 01:22:35 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 01:17:47 PM

Im not buying this

when we talk about non man co2 at 96% that too is being replenished each year as well

that 96% didnt just happen one time and bingo lasted in the atmosphere for ever

to suggest mans co2 never goes away and just builds up for 100 years does not nake sense

i

Okay, think of it differently then. 

Prior to human industrialization, the natural processes of the earth emitted 100% of all CO2, correct? 

Now, we've added to that. So the natural processes of the earth PLUS the activity of human industrialization is emitting 104% of the previous amount. 

Total annual CO2 emissions have increased by 4%, and natural processes cannot pull that extra out of the atmosphere so it is accumulating. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 01:32:46 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 01:22:35 PM

Okay, think of it differently then.

Prior to human industrialization, the natural processes of the earth emitted 100% of all CO2, correct?

Now, we've added to that. So the natural processes of the earth PLUS the activity of human industrialization is emitting 104% of the previous amount.

Total annual CO2 emissions have increased by 4%, and natural processes cannot pull that extra out of the atmosphere so it is accumulating.

your making an assumption that prior to man the earth could only deal with the level of co2 that existed

how do you know that the capacity of the earth to deal with co2 was at 100%

nature tends to adjust to deal with what comes its way

again this is 4% vs 96%

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 01:34:38 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 12:42:38 PM

it just sounds cool

I disagree, I think it sounds kind of dumb, which is why I brought it up.

But people on message boards all over the world think that adding the word "metric" in front, somehow indicates extreme emphasis.  I just don't get it.  I never heard or saw this before message boards proliferated, but maybe it was something in the language beforehand?  I don't know.  But it's dumb, and you all sound dumber for using it. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 01:49:10 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 01:32:46 PM

your making an assumption that prior to man the earth could only deal with the level of co2 that existed

how do you know that the capacity of the earth to deal with co2 was at 100%

nature tends to adjust to deal with what comes its way

again this is 4% vs 96%

In a way, that's correct. Long term, the planet will be fine. The people, on the other hand, might be f$^#&d. 

How do I know that the the earth can only deal with that amount? Well, based on the picture I posted above that showed CO2 concentrations for the last MILLION years, throughout multiple ice ages and warm periods, being between 250 and 300 ppm. And in 200 years we've now hit 410 ppm. Clearly the earth, although it might adjust over a few thousand years to be able to pull that CO2 out, clearly is NOT capable of dealing with an increase this large on a short term basis. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 01:52:14 PM

Quote from: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 01:34:38 PM

I disagree, I think it sounds kind of dumb, which is why I brought it up.

But people on message boards all over the world think that adding the word "metric" in front, somehow indicates extreme emphasis.  I just don't get it.  I never heard or saw this before message boards proliferated, but maybe it was something in the language beforehand?  I don't know.  But it's dumb, and you all sound dumber for using it. :)

Fine. I'll own it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 02:07:31 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 01:09:53 PM

The alleged increase in global T is 1.1°C thus far.  That is ~0.3% on an absolute scale.

I'm not sure this can be the cause for wildfires, floods, hurricanes or other natural disasters.
Let alone the end of human existence 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 02:09:51 PM

Quote from: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 01:34:38 PM

I disagree, I think it sounds kind of dumb, which is why I brought it up.

But people on message boards all over the world think that adding the word "metric" in front, somehow indicates extreme emphasis.  I just don't get it.  I never heard or saw this before message boards proliferated, but maybe it was something in the language beforehand?  I don't know.  But it's dumb, and you all sound dumber for using it. :)

of course it sounds dumb to someone that understands it's merely 10% more

sayin "all Y'all" sounds dumb to someone that understands proper English 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 27, 2023, 02:17:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2023, 01:09:53 PM

The alleged increase in global T is 1.1°C thus far.  That is ~0.3% on an absolute scale.

thats over a 100 year period

why can this be normal fluxation

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2023, 02:40:50 PM

How often have we seen 1.1C change over a 100 year period in history? 

(https://i.imgur.com/LCpGRXN.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 03:02:21 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 02:09:51 PM

of course it sounds dumb to someone that understands it's merely 10% more

sayin "all Y'all" sounds dumb to someone that understands proper English

No proper Texan would ever say "all y'all" because it is obviously redundant. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 03:07:26 PM

lotta unproper Texans in Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 03:12:40 PM

If you say so.  I've never heard anyone say that.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 03:27:29 PM

:smiley_confused1:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 03:33:19 PM

:friends:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2023, 03:38:17 PM

:wee_hee:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 03:54:54 PM

love the "down" button

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2023, 03:55:36 PM

La Niña Is Out And El Niño May Be Ahead | Weather.com (https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-03-09-la-nina-el-nino-summer-hurricane)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2023, 03:58:04 PM

we could use some rain and warm temps

followed by sunny daze with little wind

hell, it's golf season!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2023, 04:00:30 PM

La Nina is hell for us, we've been in a 3-year-plus drought.

El Nino would be welcome for us, but I realize it brings challenges to other parts of the country.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2023, 04:04:24 PM

I'll take the latter down here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2023, 07:55:48 AM

Senate Budget Committee Hearing: JC responds | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/03/26/senate-budget-committee-hearing-jc-responds/#more-29912)

I found this "funny", meaning sadly predictable.  I read this woman's blogs pretty often.  She has "cred" and challenges authority on climate change in a way they find difficult to rebut, so "they" resort to mischaracterizing her positions.  THis is the sad state of affairs with our government today.  Only one Senator shows up apparently.

Chairman Whitehouse Presses GOP Witness in Budget Hearing on Climate Change & Insurance Markets - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjtUwnyJDVU&t=1187s)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2023, 07:57:27 AM

Shutting down the Monticello nuclear power plant to fix a new leak of radioactive water resulted in a cooldown of the Mississippi River that killed hundreds of fish, Xcel Energy said on Monday.

Xcel spokesman Theo Keith said when active, the nuclear plant draws water from the river for cooling steam and equipment and returns it at a warmer temperature.

The warm water allows fish to stay active in the area, but when the plant powers down, that warming effect is gone, affecting the fish. Keith said they’ve found 230 dead fish so far, even though Xcel “powered down the plant slowly to mitigate the impacts.”

Keith said Xcel is working with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency to address the situation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on March 28, 2023, 09:33:31 AM

BART,

I see you read the Wait But Why blog, one of my favorite sites.  Although I don't agree with all of his view points, he does have some very good articles and well thought out positions. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 28, 2023, 09:36:29 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 28, 2023, 07:57:27 AM

Shutting down the Monticello nuclear power plant to fix a new leak of radioactive water resulted in a cooldown of the Mississippi River that killed hundreds of fish, Xcel Energy said on Monday.

Xcel spokesman Theo Keith said when active, the nuclear plant draws water from the river for cooling steam and equipment and returns it at a warmer temperature.

The warm water allows fish to stay active in the area, but when the plant powers down, that warming effect is gone, affecting the fish. Keith said they’ve found 230 dead fish so far, even though Xcel “powered down the plant slowly to mitigate the impacts.”

Keith said Xcel is working with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency to address the situation.

See?  Human impacts are GOOD for the ecosystem.

Just imagine how much more arable and livable land there will be once the Earth warms up a few degrees?

Success!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2023, 09:40:27 AM

and if it weren't for all the man-made levees and dikes and irrigation ditches......

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on March 28, 2023, 05:10:57 PM

The big news in my company these days is circularity. There’s a lot of talk too about burning hydrogen, and converting methane to hydrogen. Putting carbon underground is coming as well. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2023, 06:47:03 PM

Hydrogen is neat if you can make it somehow without using too much energy produced by something else.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on March 29, 2023, 10:03:31 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 28, 2023, 06:47:03 PM

Hydrogen is neat if you can make it somehow without using too much energy produced by something else.

Or....you're already making a crap ton of H2 from the rest of your process (like propane dehydrogenation) and there is already an abundant supply.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2023, 10:07:09 AM

However one makes hydrogen is very energy intensive.  Propane DH is least so, I think.  (Well, you can make it from some compounds like LAH but they take a lot of energy to make also.)

You can't "mine" hydrogen on this planet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 29, 2023, 05:03:16 PM

at 2:30 this afternoon it was sunny and 52 deg.It is 36 deg now with snow/sleet mixture

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 30, 2023, 08:52:37 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 29, 2023, 05:03:16 PM

at 2:30 this afternoon it was sunny and 52 deg.It is 36 deg now with snow/sleet mixture

I don't live all that far from you and when I got up this morning, it was 23 deg. But now the sun is up and the temp as risen to 28 deg. WOO HOO!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 30, 2023, 09:10:13 AM

Currently 60 degrees in the ATX, expected high of 77. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2023, 10:16:05 AM

52°F, sunny, should warn nicely.  This is from the other day, in the park, one of my favorite dogwoods.  We have great spring weather aside from tornados and rain.:93:

(https://i.imgur.com/V3KJPi4.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 30, 2023, 10:34:17 AM

Today we should have some light rain in the mid-late morning and a high of only 57, but that's the last rain on the 10-day forecast. 

Should be 65 and sunny for golf on Sunday. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2023, 02:07:54 PM

65 & sunny for golf here Sunday

might be my first time out this year

then the forecast goes in the shitter for another week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2023, 08:58:45 PM

Potential tornadoes outside Chicago-- y'all in the midwest hang in there tonight.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2023, 09:26:56 PM

just a little wet snow and 60mph wind gusts here

I'll stay off the road and watch Iowa Ladies basketball

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Hawkinole on April 01, 2023, 02:24:06 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 31, 2023, 09:26:56 PM

just a little wet snow and 60mph wind gusts here

I'll stay off the road and watch Iowa Ladies basketball

Tornado in Manchester tonight at about 5:30 p.m. Our power was off about 4-hours, and  came back on 2-minutes after Iowa finished cleaning and delivering back South Carolina's clock. The clock repair work hasn't been paid for yet. We'll see what happens Sunday. Go Hawks!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2023, 08:31:07 AM

Raining pretty hard here but no extreme stuff is forecast, no thunder maybe a bit in the distance.  We get quite a bit of rain in spring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on April 01, 2023, 09:13:01 AM

Twister killed 3 in a town couple hrs SW of Indy.  We had some wild storms overnight.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on April 02, 2023, 10:38:11 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1642418381231132673?t=Pg_o8jGmMRhbqGfB_vW53w&s=19

https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1642431574162702336?t=_D5of7TqSO_ImwYf_ZAvTg&s=19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2023, 10:43:56 AM

hah, my daughter escaped the cities yesterday and is home here in the banana belt of Iowa

no snow on the ground, high in the low 60s this afternoon, and the golf course is open!!!

FORE!!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2023, 12:55:52 PM

We had 60s yesterday @ noon, 32 this morning 🤧

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on April 02, 2023, 05:13:29 PM

About 80 here in Scottsdale today.  Mighty nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 02, 2023, 05:37:53 PM

84 in Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2023, 10:27:03 AM

"Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. Einstein’s view as to the magnitude of the deflection of light by gravitation would have been rejected by all experts not many years ago, yet it proved to be right. Nevertheless the opinion of experts, when it is unanimous, must be accepted by non-experts as more likely to be right than the opposite opinion.

The scepticism that I advocate amounts only to this: (1) that when the experts are agreed, the opposite opinion cannot be held to be certain; (2) that when they are agreed, no opinion can be regarded as certain by a non-expert; and (3) that when they all hold that no sufficient grounds for a positive opinion exist, the ordinary man would do well to suspend his judgment.

These propositions may seem mild, yet, if accepted, they would absolutely revolutionize human life.

The opinions for which people are willing to fight and persecute all belong to one of the three classes which this scepticism condemns. When there are rational grounds for an opinion, people are content to set them forth and wait for them to operate. In such cases, people do not hold their opinions with passion; they hold them calmly, and set forth their reasons quietly. The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no good ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holder’s lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately.”

[color=var(--accent)]Bertrand Russell[/iurl], Sceptical Essays (1928), Introduction: On the Value of Scepticism, p. 12[/font][/font][/size][/color]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2023, 01:24:58 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/bWw8lG4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2023, 06:38:38 AM

The Earth’s Green Future is Forked | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/04/03/the-earths-green-future-is-forked/#more-29974)

(https://i.imgur.com/Aqmnq3S.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2023, 07:10:17 AM

Road to net zero will cost trillions a year, report says - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60135833)

This obviously will never happen, time to be realistic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2023, 09:32:41 AM

The NHC put out it's final report on Hurricane Ian. It was a Cat 5 after all. Below are images from Fort Myers Beach, all from the same camera angle. Amazing what these storms can do in such a short amount of time.

(https://i.imgur.com/Aeela07.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2023, 10:10:05 AM

Decreasing cloudiness and windy. 
High 39F. 
Winds WNW at 25 to 35 mph. 
Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.
____________________________

too windy for golf

Sending this to Nubbz

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2023, 06:34:07 AM

GOP urged to denounce ‘alarmist’ UN climate change report | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-lawmakers-un-report-climate-change)

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently called on wealthy nations to move up its net-zero emissions goal from 2050 to 2040. But a memo sent by the Competitive Enterprise Institute offered Republicans talking points for refuting both the UN’s findings and the Biden administration’s push to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

Gee, why not set the goal to 2030, or 2024, or 2020?  The years are all about equally plausible.  (I'm not endorsing the "talking points" in the article, just noting we're not going to "net zero" by 2050 anyway, so what's the point of the goal?)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2023, 07:01:37 AM

Vandy should set a goal to have an undefeated national championship season by 2030

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2023, 07:03:58 AM

Yeah, we're slated to hear more and more stories about how "we" aren't doing enough and our goals won't be achieved, as if setting a goal in the first place meant anything with no enablement, no plan, no strategy beyond throwing money at it.  The public wants "something" to be done, as they do with most problems, with no solutions available that are practicable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2023, 07:05:53 AM

yes, but curiously, most individuals aren't doing much in their daily lives to help meet any goal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2023, 07:10:23 AM

Humans tend to laziness unless motivated by something real.  I think it's a survival tactic outmoded today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2023, 07:22:40 AM

people certainly aren't protesting in the streets

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2023, 07:48:33 AM

There is the occasional march about climate, usually young folks holding signs and chanting.  Some Swedish gal rants at the UN about something.  I know a couple folks who do what they can personally, even I try and manage a few things.  The recent legislation allocated $37 billion a year in the US to "do something", and obviously that's a drop in the bucket.  Mostly they set "goals" and issue new rules and targets and speechify.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2023, 07:59:47 AM

Mercury at 30° but it's a dry frost

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2023, 08:09:20 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2023, 07:05:53 AM

yes, but curiously, most individuals aren't doing much in their daily lives to help meet any goal

I recycle bottles/cans and avoid at all costs toxic electric vehicle batteries and the horrific harm the do to the environment 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2023, 08:10:50 AM

first afternoon in the 70s here

windy, but........

FORE!!!

Cigars and Red Bud cans in the cart!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2023, 09:08:33 AM

It's 75 here. Right now. Been setting records the past few days. Need rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2023, 09:10:28 AM

Hopefully the rain is coming. There have been quite a few fires lately.

(https://i.imgur.com/GkkslDT.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2023, 09:48:06 AM

We're getting rain here of course, 47°F at the moment.  I'm going from heat to AC and back to heat over and over ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2023, 12:35:48 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2023, 08:09:20 AM

I recycle bottles/cans and avoid at all costs toxic electric vehicle batteries and the horrific harm the do to the environment

Driving a Hyundai Elantra at 37mpg then, huh?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2023, 02:31:34 PM

1988 Hyundai Elantra

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 08, 2023, 07:28:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2023, 09:48:06 AM

We're getting rain here of course, 47°F at the moment.  I'm going from heat to AC and back to heat over and over ...

Just turn it off, and open up the windows. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2023, 07:31:52 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2023, 12:35:48 PM

Driving a Hyundai Elantra at 37mpg then, huh?

Not sure what mpg my 2010 Corolla or the 2002 VW Passat get. But have noticed since the Passat's brakes gave out it's mpg has been significantly better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2023, 08:00:21 AM

It's 42°F here at the moment, if I opened the windows, I'd be sleeping outside permanently.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2023, 09:40:51 AM

How to avoid apocalypse fatigue | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3939949-how-to-avoid-apocalypse-fatigue/)

More hand wringing along with some inaccuracies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2023, 09:57:27 AM

Interesting reading here, on sea level rise in the Southeast.

Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability | Nature Communications (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37649-9)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2023, 12:59:38 PM

Very nice soaker today. Much needed. Free pool water!

(https://i.imgur.com/rASoAXk.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2023, 01:35:00 PM

FOX 11 Los Angeles on Twitter: "RARE WEATHER EVENT: Earliest named storm since 2017 could form in the Gulf of Mexico this week https://t.co/UPd8jNVw90" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/FOXLA/status/1645879492542447618?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1645879492542447618|twgr^021233384e4da07f22a2478ffbefa727e0067f3c|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Ffoxla%2Fstatus%2F1645879492542447618%3Fs%3D4626t%3DcLuXWkieLfvAxlzqQK_QTA)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2023, 01:37:36 PM

I like how they call it "extremely rare" and then note it happened in 2017 and 2003 ...

Six of the last seven hurricane seasons have seen a named tropical system form in the month of May, but April? Well, that’s extremely rare! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on April 12, 2023, 01:45:52 PM

Just checked the National Hurricane Center and there’s nothing in the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or Eastern Pacific.  So to Fox 11 in LA I say put the crack pipe down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2023, 01:47:35 PM

Hmmm "page not working now."  Maybe it was a Russian bot.  Or Elon just screwing around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2023, 04:02:44 PM

82 right now was 30 Monday morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 08:15:12 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 12, 2023, 01:47:35 PM

Hmmm "page not working now."  Maybe it was a Russian bot.  Or Elon just screwing around.

It was broadcast in several cities, but the locals here never even mentioned it. Just more garbage reporting.

At least the "storm" gave us rain we needed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 08:15:47 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on April 12, 2023, 01:45:52 PM

Just checked the National Hurricane Center and there’s nothing in the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or Eastern Pacific.  So to Fox 11 in LA I say put the crack pipe down.

Exactly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2023, 08:19:27 AM

I suppose one COULD "form" this week, it's possible I suppose, even though there is no indication one is forming....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 10:01:47 AM

Just climate fearmongering from outside groups, with no real interest in what happens here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 10:43:30 AM

I definitely can feel this. Pollen is brutal right now.



(https://i.imgur.com/52lQse5.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2023, 11:22:54 AM

We're amidst the Yellow Peril, my wife says it's bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 12:19:48 PM

Colorado State University releases first 2023 hurricane forecast (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/04/13/colorado-state-university-releases-first-2023-hurricane-forecast/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2023, 12:33:44 PM

why Colorado State

are they ranked like number one in huricane predictions

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 01:14:16 PM

They collaborate a lot with NOAA and the NHC.

You'd think NCSU, Clemson, UGA, UF, Auburn, msu, LSU, and aTm would be doing this stuff.

(Land grant universities in the SE)

U of Puerto Rico is also a land grant school.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 01:20:49 PM

Actually, FSU, F A&M, and Miami have the meteorology programs in Florida. I don't think UF has it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 01:40:13 PM

I just read that Fort Lauderdale got 24" of rain in 6 hours yesterday. That is unheard of.

We talk about 100 year events. 500 year.

This is a 1000 year event, at least.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 13, 2023, 07:23:35 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 01:40:13 PM

I just read that Fort Lauderdale got 24" of rain in 6 hours yesterday. That is unheard of.

We talk about 100 year events. 500 year.

This is a 1000 year event, at least.

Some of my employees down there got stuck at work.  Had to spend the night in the hotel next door - and weren’t sure if they could get out today. ( they eventually did)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2023, 10:10:27 AM

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-salting-biomass-crops-dry-landfills.html

Quote

As reported today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2217695120), researchers propose growing biomass crops to capture carbon (https://phys.org/tags/carbon/) from the air, then burying the harvested vegetation in engineered dry biolandfills. This unique approach, which researchers call agro-sequestration, keeps the buried biomass dry with the aid of salt to suppress microbials and stave off decomposition, enabling stable sequestration of all the biomass carbon.

The result is carbon-negative, making this approach a potential game changer, according to Eli Yablonovitch, lead author and Professor in the Graduate School in UC Berkeley's Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences.

"We're claiming that proper engineering can solve 100% of the climate crisis, at manageable cost," said Yablonovitch. "If implemented on a global scale, this carbon-negative sequestration method has the potential to remove current annual carbon dioxide emissions as well as prior years' emissions from the atmosphere."

Unlike prior efforts toward carbon neutrality, agro-sequestration seeks not net carbon neutrality, but net carbon negativity. According to the paper, for every metric ton (ton) of dry biomass, it would be possible to sequester approximately 2 metric tons of carbon dioxide.

Very cool stuff... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2023, 10:27:43 AM

This is a much better idea than getting biofuel from algae, and I've seen it discussed years back.  The key is having an environment conducive for growing a lot of biomass fast and then burying the stuff where it won't degrade.

It's also a better idea than taking CO2 out of the air artificially.

It's not all that easy to grow biomass at scale without having it kill itself off.  And if it's algae, you need to dewater it when harvested.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2023, 10:38:28 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2023, 10:43:30 AM

I definitely can feel this. Pollen is brutal right now.



(https://i.imgur.com/52lQse5.png)

Strange list.  Austin is worse than both Dallas and Houston with respect to seasonal allergies.  When I travel to either of those cities, I find immediate relief from my allergy symptoms.

And yes, the Yellow Scourge was especially brutal this year.  It ended for us about a week ago, thank goodness.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2023, 10:48:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2023, 10:27:43 AM

This is a much better idea than getting biofuel from algae, and I've seen it discussed years back.  The key is having an environment conducive for growing a lot of biomass fast and then burying the stuff where it won't degrade.

It's also a better idea than taking CO2 out of the air artificially.

It's not all that easy to grow biomass at scale without having it kill itself off.  And if it's algae, you need to dewater it when harvested.

Yep. My biggest concern is the same biggest concern any time I see an academic researcher say "well we see it works in the lab, and as someone who has never had to scale anything to massive levels and knows nothing about economics, we totally know this technique can scale economically!"

But if it works AND it can scale, it makes a ton of sense. And I could even see this being a case where the costs could be spread. So many companies (incl. mine) have SBTi targets to reduce emissions to levels commensurate with 1.5C warming, but that's going to be hard to do just with purchases of renewable [non-emitting] energy. If farmers can sell carbon sequestration credits to those companies showing that an equivalent amount of CO2 is being sequestered to what they're emitting, it will make it a hell of a lot easier for their total net emissions to hit those targets. And the money [nor the directives to spend it] won't have to come from Washington.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2023, 04:27:44 PM

G7: Liquefied natural gas is a bridge fuel to climate disaster | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3950993-g7-liquefied-natural-gas-is-a-bridge-fuel-to-climate-disaster/)

OK, what's you plan to do something else?  "We can't do A because it's bad."

"What should we do instead?"

"Um, wind and solar, I guess."

"Never mind."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 08:04:32 AM

PUERTOLLANO, Spain (AP) — In Spain, the dream of an emissions-free future for heavy industry starts with a rugged Castilian hillside covered in solar panels, and ends with an ice-cold beer. When the beer will be available, and how much it will cost, depends on an intervening rollout of green hydrogen.

This Mediterranean nation wants to become the European leader in hydrogen produced exclusively from renewable energy. With plenty of sunshine and wind and wide-open countryside to host those power sources, Spain’s ambition is to export the gas to the rest of the continent.

Green hydrogen is created when renewable energy sources power an electrical current that runs through water, separating its hydrogen and oxygen molecules through electrolysis. The result does not produce planet-warming carbon dioxide, but less than 0.1% of global hydrogen production is currently created this way.


As the global price of solar power continues to fall, Spain is betting that it can rapidly build a new supply chain for sectors of the economy that require hydrogen for industrial processes, and which have been harder to wean off fossil fuels.

Critics of Spain’s ambitions have warned there isn’t enough renewable energy capacity to produce green hydrogen that can replace natural gas and coal in the making of petrochemicals, steel and agricultural products.


But supporters are relying on the country’s plans for a head start to implant themselves in the nascent green hydrogen economy. The International Energy Agency estimated in December that Spain would account for half of Europe’s growth in dedicated renewable capacity for hydrogen production

“The sense of urgency is that everyone seems to be racing to be the first to export green hydrogen,” said Alejandro Núñez-Jiménez, an expert in green hydrogen policy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich. “Once you build energy infrastructure, it’s going to be there for decades. So it’s really a game where the first one might lock in the situation for many years,”

A glimpse of the potential for green hydrogen can be seen in Puertollano, a former mining town now home to a large industrial park where Spanish energy company Iberdrola and fertilizer manufacturer Fertiberia have partnered to create the first zero-carbon plant nutrients in the world. The fertilizer will one day be scattered onto malt barley, which will then be used to make Heineken’s first “green malt” beverage.


Etienne Strijp, president of Heineken Spain, emphasized the difficulty of stripping carbon out of agricultural processing “Being carbon neutral throughout our value chain represents an enormous challenge,” he said at the announcement of the company’s plan to produce green malt.

The green hydrogen plant in Puertollano, Europe’s largest functioning facility, is currently in a pilot phase. Iberdrola owns the 100 megawatts’ worth of solar panels that power electrolyzers to separate water from hydrogen. Huge hydrogen storage tanks then feed pipes that take the gas direct to Fertiberia, where it is used to make ammonia, the foundational chemical in nitrogen fertilizers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 08:17:20 AM

That's all nice, but what percentage of the total energy needs would that represent?

We're headed to a very muddled future with no realistic plan and a lot of money spent for little result.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 08:19:23 AM

Hydrogen of course can be a useful fuel for things like fuel cells, but it's basically a fuel storage entity.  You can't mine it or refine it, you have to make it, with electricity.  The useful feature of electricity is how it can be transmitted long distances efficiently, possibly to some location that an use it more usefully than making hydrogen.

Electricity is more useful than hydrogen, we're using a more useful thing to make a less useful thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 08:41:13 AM

it's the storage and transport thing that can be advantageous over electricity

such as refueling your vehicle in 5 minutes instead of 55 minutes

or providing an energy source to a remote location that would be difficult to reach with power lines

the percentage?  not a huge number, but could replace fossil fuels many places

the question is how efficient is the process from electricity to hydrogen,, but that's not real important if it's all "green" electricity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 08:54:30 AM

I think electricity has major advantages in terms of transport/transmission over hydrogen.

Hydrogen may be more useful for nonstationary energy needs, like trucks.  Fuel cell trucks are a known thing, but the hydrogen problem hasn't been overcome.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2023, 10:05:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 08:41:13 AM

the question is how efficient is the process from electricity to hydrogen,, but that's not real important if it's all "green" electricity

The efficiency question is very important. If you can "fill" your vehicle in 5 minutes instead of 55, but it costs you 10x as much as electricity to do it, or 5  minutes in 5 minutes but it's 5x as expensive as gas, it's not a viable "fuel" source. 

Solar energy is free. Solar panels are not. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 10:40:50 AM

Transporting and storing hydrogen is a bit of a pain.  I do like it for long haul trucks.  Maybe we go back to real truck stops that have hydrogen and recharging stations for cars.  Some day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 11:44:16 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2023, 10:05:00 AM

The efficiency question is very important. If you can "fill" your vehicle in 5 minutes instead of 55, but it costs you 10x as much as electricity to do it, or 5  minutes in 5 minutes but it's 5x as expensive as gas, it's not a viable "fuel" source.

Solar energy is free. Solar panels are not.

money is always very important, but folks are throwing large gobs of money around to avoid burning fossil fuels

when/if the solar panel is very efficient, it could be cost effective

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2023, 01:23:38 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 11:44:16 AM

money is always very important, but folks are throwing large gobs of money around to avoid burning fossil fuels

when/if the solar panel is very efficient, it could be cost effective

Yeah, but you can't consistently lose large gobs of money and make it up in volume :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 02:42:22 PM

if the governments of the world are printing money, why not?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2023, 03:03:43 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 02:42:22 PM

if the governments of the world are printing money, why not?

Yeah (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic)... Why (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe) not (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Brazil#:~:text=The hyperinflationary period starting in,to effectively halt high inflation.)? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 03:18:01 PM

https://youtu.be/Wo7lrlP7dtA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2023, 05:12:42 AM

Solar is probably close to as efficient as possible, theoretically, same with wind.  It's not really a cost issue today, it's the intermittency, and power storage question.  You obviously need some kind of stable background electrical supply source, like nuclear or coal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2023, 11:48:26 AM

This place is interesting. Lots of people moving out there.

Babcock Ranch | The Hometown of Tomorrow (https://babcockranch.com/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2023, 12:55:18 PM

great plan

couldn't find the golf course

might be rather expensive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2023, 02:43:26 PM

Tornado alley is expanding — and scientists don’t know why | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3949135-tornado-alley-expanding-scientists-dont-know-why/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2023, 02:56:41 PM

it's obviously because of global warming, caused by man made CO2

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2023, 04:11:50 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2023, 02:56:41 PM

it's obviously because of global warming, caused by man made CO2

again man made co2 is less then 4% of the total co2 in the atmosphere

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 06:08:42 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 16, 2023, 04:11:50 PM

again man made co2 is less then 4% of the total co2 in the atmosphere

I don't know where you get this figure, or why it matters.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 08:10:46 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2023, 12:55:18 PM

great plan

couldn't find the golf course

might be rather expensive

It's part of the Lennar neighborhood.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 08:29:02 AM

Got about 3" of water in the pool last night.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 08:36:08 AM

No diving?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 08:59:47 AM

I suppose you could on the deep end. I'm not buying a diving board.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 09:02:45 AM

Our pool here had to install "No Diving" warnings around the edge to meet code.  It's maybe 3.5 feet deep.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2023, 09:37:07 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 08:10:46 AM

It's part of the Lennar neighborhood.

probably even more expensive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 10:28:43 AM

I think they are selling houses in the $600K+ ballpark.

Their development nearest us is not much different for the houses.

I've heard nice things about their course, which is included in the estate home price, apparently.

Heritage Landing New Home Community - Punta Gorda - Naples / Ft. Myers, FL | Lennar (https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/florida/naples-ft-myers/punta-gorda/heritage-landing)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 10:32:23 AM

I noticed a lot of large residential areas going in around North Port, I presume they build a gold course, clubhouse first and then sell lots/houses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 10:41:54 AM

Normally it's the opposite. Can't make money on a course if there are no streets to get to it, and nobody wants to golf in a dust storm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 10:46:48 AM

Maybe so, I've seen a few developments in other states where they build the infrastructure and the  try and sell lots.  We toured one in Tennessee, which appeared to be flailing.  Another one went completely dead, zero houses built.

This $500 million golf course community was never finished. Now the developer is paying for it. | Chattanooga Times Free Press (https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2015/jan/16/develoross-pay-thornt15-million/)

Why I Love Rarity Mountain – sara l foust (https://saralfoust.com/2019/02/28/why-i-love-rarity-mountain/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 10:55:57 AM

I've done 30+ developments with golf courses and only in 2 cases did the developer start with a golf course, and on one of them, the course was existing. Course leadership decided to sell off the remaining land around the course. That was tough to design around.

It's been 15 years or so since I've worked on one of those projects.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 11:05:12 AM

It probably takes deep pockets to prebuild the infrastructure stuff including a GC.  I just looked at a map and these places I've seen appear to be fully built anyway.  We had our final banquet at Plantation GC (which really doesn't do a great job, they are moving).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2023, 11:07:08 AM

takes money to make money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 11:19:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 06:08:42 AM

I don't know where you get this figure, or why it matters.

The number can be easily looked up and weve already discussed it and you agreed its less then 4%

It matters because if man contributes less then 4% of the worlds co2 its very hard to believe its the main cause of climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 11:30:59 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 11:05:12 AM

It probably takes deep pockets to prebuild the infrastructure stuff including a GC.  I just looked at a map and these places I've seen appear to be fully built anyway.  We had our final banquet at Plantation GC (which really doesn't do a great job, they are moving).

Not probably.

It takes very deep pockets, and the funding normally comes from banks. They are all careful since 2008, so you are not going to see developers taking down 200 acres at a time anymore, unless it's Lennar, Toll Brothers, DR Horton, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 11:34:51 AM

I do not agree at all that only 4% of the increase in CO2 levels is man made, or that the increase is only 4%.  I'd call that completely false.

Carbon dioxide now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov) (https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than-pre-industrial-levels)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 11:37:38 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 11:19:46 AM

The number can be easily looked up and weve already discussed it and you agreed its less then 4%

It matters because if man contributes less then 4% of the worlds co2 its very hard to believe its the main cause of climate change

Yes, we've already discussed it.

If natural processes produce 100% of the Earth's "normal" CO2, and then man adds 4% to that such that every single year the CO2 output increases to 104% of the natural value, do you not understand how that accumulates over time?

We have no record in "modern" pre-human history of CO2 ever exceeding 300 ppm, and we're now at 412 ppm, with that sharp rise being exactly in the last 150 years since human industrialization?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 11:40:40 AM

OK, sure, 4% PER YEAR is reasonable, and as noted, potentially very bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 12:00:45 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 11:37:38 AM

If natural processes produce 100% of the Earth's "normal" CO2, and then man adds 4% to that such that every single year the CO2 output increases to 104% of the natural value, do you not understand how that accumulates over time?

We have no record in "modern" pre-human history of CO2 ever exceeding 300 ppm, and we're now at 412 ppm, with that sharp rise being exactly in the last 150 years since human industrialization?

not only is mans portion of 4 percent accumulating but the other 96% is also accumulating so this brings us back to why is mans 4% the main cause of climate change when theres another 96% put there by nature

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 12:02:26 PM

I don't know of any evidence this is anywhere near true.  The CO2 increase is nearly all from burning fossil fuels.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2023, 12:10:11 PM

as far as you know

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 12:10:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 12:02:26 PM

I don't know of any evidence this is anywhere near true.  The CO2 increase is nearly all from burning fossil fuels.

thats not the point

if the increase was much larger caused by man then its a little more believable but only a 4% amount is just not reasonable

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 01:47:26 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 12:00:45 PM

not only is mans portion of 4 percent accumulating but the other 96% is also accumulating so this brings us back to why is mans 4% the main cause of climate change when theres another 96% put there by nature

You're aware that CO2 is not just pushed into the atmosphere and sits there, right? That we have a carbon cycle? Animals engage in respiration, taking in O2 and expelling CO2. Plants photosynthesize, taking in CO2 and expelling O2.

Plants don't care whether the CO2 is man-made or natural. They take it in, in whatever proportion it exists in the atmosphere. So if CO2 is 300 ppm in our atmosphere and 12 ppm is man-made, they'll take in 96% natural and 4% man made. If CO2 is 400 ppm and 16 ppm is man-made, they'll take in 96% natural and 4% man-made.

The key is (per the graph I posted a while back), for the last million years, CO2 in the atmosphere has ebbed and flowed between 250 and 300 ppm. In the 150 years since human industrialization, it is now >400 ppm.

I would think that rather than skepticism that man and fossil fuels is the cause, it would seem like the easiest thing to believe is that our actions burning LOTS of fossil fuels is the cause and apply skepticism to any claim otherwise. Occam's razor, right?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 02:24:11 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 01:47:26 PM

The key is (per the graph I posted a while back), for the last million years, CO2 in the atmosphere has ebbed and flowed between 250 and 300 ppm. In the 150 years since human industrialization, it is now >400 ppm.

This is subject to scientific judgement from evidence from bubbles in old ice etc

the fact is no one really knows for sure cause they werent there for all 4.5 billion years of this planets life

basically the whole theory is based on the earth is getting warmer over the last 150 years and thats when man started the indust revolution so it must be mans fault never mind that less then 4% of the earths total co2 is caused by man it must still be his fault cause thats the only thing thats changed

Im saying we are assuming mans actions are the cause because we cant figure out any other explanation

again Im skeptical because 4% of the total co2 seems pretty small to me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 02:28:38 PM

I have no clue where this "4%" comes from.  The basic models on CO2 and the greenhouse effect are quite well understood, though the elaborated models are, in my view, much more speculative.  They could be, in fact, they definitely are "wrong", but they could be wrong in either direction.  "All models are wrong, some models are useful."

The increase from 280 ppm to 410+ ppm is nearly all due to man's actions.  That looks like a significant increase to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 02:41:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 02:28:38 PM

I have no clue where this "4%" comes from.  

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/

Quote

Die Welt presented a common number-trick by climate deniers (readers can probably point to some english-language examples):

Quote

In fact, carbon dioxide, which is blamed for climate warming, has only a volume share of 0.04 percent in the atmosphere. And of these 0.04 percent CO₂, 95 percent come from natural sources, such as volcanoes or decomposition processes in nature. The human CO2 content in the air is thus only 0.0016 percent.

The claim “95 percent from natural sources” and the “0.0016 percent” are simply wrong (neither does the arithmetic add up – how would 5% of 0.04 be 0.0016?). These (and similar – sometimes you read 97% from natural sources) numbers have been making the rounds in climate denier circles for many years (and have repeatedly been rebutted by scientists). They present a simple mix-up of turnover and profit, in economic terms. The land ecosystems have, of course, a high turnover of carbon, but (unlike humans) do not add any net CO2 to the atmosphere. Any biomass which decomposes must first have grown – the CO₂ released during rotting was first taken from the atmosphere by photosynthesis. This is a cycle. Hey, perhaps that’s why it’s called the carbon cycle!

That is why one way to reduce emissions is the use of bioenergy, such as heating with wood (at least when it’s done in a sustainable manner – many mistakes can be made with bioenergy (http://www.wbgu.de/en/flagship-reports/fr-2008-bioenergy/)). Forests only increase the amount of CO₂ in the air when they are felled, burnt (http://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-sets-the-world-on-fire/a-40152365?utm_content=buffer960d4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer) or die. This is immediately understood by looking at a schematic of the carbon cycle, Fig. 3.

(https://www.realclimate.org/images//WBGU-carbon-cycle-600x450.jpg)
Fig. 3 Scheme of the global carbon cycle. Values for the carbon stocks are given in Gt C (ie, billions of tonnes of carbon) (bold numbers). Values for average carbon fluxes are given in Gt C per year (normal numbers). Source: WBGU 2006 (http://www.wbgu.de/en/special-reports/sr-2006-the-future-oceans/) . (A similar graph can also be found at Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle).) Since this graph was prepared, anthropogenic emissions and the atmospheric CO2 content have increased further, see Figs 4 and 5, but I like the simplicity of this graph.

If one takes as the total emissions a “natural” part (60 GtC from soils + 60 GtC from land plants) and the 7 GtC fossil emissions as anthropogenic part, the anthropogenic portion is about 5% (7 of 127 billion tons of carbon) as cited in the Welt article. This percentage is highly misleading, however, since it ignores that the land biosphere does not only release 120 GtC but also absorbs 122 GtC by photosynthesis, which means that net 2 GtC is removed from the atmosphere. Likewise, the ocean removes around 2 GtC. To make any sense, the net emissions by humans have to be compared with the net uptake by oceans and forests and atmosphere, not with the turnover rate of a cycle, which is an irrelevant comparison. And not just irrelevant – it becomes plain wrong when that 5% number is then misunderstood as the human contribution to the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

The natural earth system thus is by no means a source of CO2 for the atmosphere, but it is a sink! Of the 7 GtC, which we blow into the atmosphere every year, only 3 remain there. 2 are absorbed by the ocean and 2 by the forests. This means that in the atmosphere and in the land biosphere and in the ocean the amount of stored carbon is increasing. And the source of all this additional carbon is the fact that we extract loads of fossil carbon from the earth’s crust and add it to the system. That’s already clear from the fact that we add twice as much to the atmosphere as is needed to explain the full increase there – that makes it obvious that the natural Earth system cannot possibly be adding more CO2 but rather is continually removing about half of our CO2 emissions from the atmosphere.

The system was almost exactly in equilibrium before humans intervened. That is why the CO₂ concentration in the air was almost constant for several thousand years (Figure 2). This means that the land ecosystems took up 120 GtC and returned 120 GtC (the exact numbers don’t matter here, what matters is that they are the same). The increased uptake of CO₂ by forests and oceans of about 2 GtC per year each is already a result of the human emissions, which has added enormous amounts of CO₂ to the system. The ocean has started to take up net CO₂ from the atmosphere through gas exchange at the sea surface: because the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is now higher than in the surface ocean, there is net flux of CO₂ into the sea. And because trees take up CO₂ by photosynthesis and can do this more easily if you offer them more CO₂ in the air, they have started to photosynthesize more and thus take up a bit more CO₂ than is released by decomposing old biomass. (To what extent and for how long the land biosphere will remain a carbon sink is open to debate, however: this will depend on the extent to which the global ecosystems come under stress by global warming, e.g. by increasing drought and wildfires.)

Essentially 120 gigatons of CO2 are emitted naturally every year. We add another 7 gigatons (5%). The earth has ability to sink 4 of those 7 gigatons, which means that we have an annual accumulation of about 3 gigatons CO2. 

Where @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) is missing this is that he's focusing on that 5% number, not focusing on the fact that the entire system emits 127 gigatons but can only sink 124 gigatons. At that point it doesn't matter that it's only 5%, what matters is that there are no natural processes capable of pulling the entirety of the extra emissions out of the atmosphere. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 02:44:16 PM

Plant more trees and leave 'em alone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 02:46:34 PM

Geesh, thanks for clearing that up.  The "deniers" often use fake numbers and really bad "analysis" to prop up their case, which is suggestive that they don't have a real case.

(I think there is a case to be made, but not this way, at all, this is lying.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 02:47:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 02:28:38 PM

I have no clue where this "4%" comes from.  The basic models on CO2 and the greenhouse effect are quite well understood, though the elaborated models are, in my view, much more speculative.  They could be, in fact, they definitely are "wrong", but they could be wrong in either direction.  "All models are wrong, some models are useful."

The increase from 280 ppm to 410+ ppm is nearly all due to man's actions.  That looks like a significant increase to me.

I can reference several sources that support this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 02:47:26 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 02:44:16 PM

Plant more trees and leave 'em alone.

Trees die longer term, and fall down, and degrade.  This only works for growing trees and/or trees that get buried.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2023, 02:48:47 PM

Yep. Keep planting trees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 04:36:27 PM

I wonder at times if some of his misinformation is purveyed by folks who know it's wrong and intend to deceive.  The COVID vaccine misinformation is similar, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 04:42:29 PM

Biden’s climate blind spot | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3955210-bidens-climate-blind-spot/)

Another toothless useless opinion piece with nary a solution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 04:53:38 PM

Has any scientist tested the greenhouse effect co2 causes

Like maybe creating a contained atmosphere like earths and testing its ability to retain heat

with various mixtures of co2

Is this just a theory on paper are have actual tests been done to prove it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 04:58:44 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 04:53:38 PM

Has any scientist tested the greenhouse effect co2 causes

Like maybe creating a contained atmosphere like earths and testing its ability to retain heat

with various mixtures of co2

Is this just a theory on paper are have actual tests been done to prove it

This is well known, well tested, completely consistent with theory and experiment.  The IR spectrum of CO2 is of course well known and demonstrates its power as a GHG.

Without CO2 in our atmosphere, our climate would be much colder.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:06:59 PM

whats interesting to me is that co2 only makes up .04% of our atmosphere and man made co2 is only a little less the 4% of that number

Its very amazing to me that 4% of .04% makes as much difference as we are being told it does

thats why Im asking about testing this

I found nothing on this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 05:12:42 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:06:59 PM

whats interesting to me is that co2 only makes up .04% of our atmosphere and man made co2 is only a little less the 4% of that number

As has been explained several times, this 4% figure is simply false.  It's not remotely close to being true.  It is not even debateable.

I think you probably would need to do some more reading about the greenhouse effect to appreciate how 0.04% can make a large difference in heat emission and temperature.  I could post the IR spectrum, but it wouldn't mean anything unless you understand IR spectra.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:31:11 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2023, 05:12:42 PM

As has been explained several times, this 4% figure is simply false.  It's not remotely close to being true.  It is not even debateable.

Here are some sources for supporting that man made co2 being aprox 4% of toal co2 in our atmosphere let me know if you need more


https://www.echopress.com/opinion/letter-only-a-tiny-percent-of-co2-in-the-atmosphere-is-man-made

https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-the-CO2-in-the-atmosphere-is-man-made-What-contributes-the-most-CO2

https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/16188/which-percentage-of-textco-2-emissions-are-human-made-emissions

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:37:25 PM

so if our total atmosphere was 10,000 units of volume

Total co2 would be 40 units

Total man made co2 would be 1.6 units

It is just amazing that such a small number of units would be causing global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 05:42:44 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:37:25 PM

so if our total atmosphere was 10,000 units of volume

Total co2 would be 40 units

Total man made co2 would be 1.6 units

It is just amazing that such a small number of units would be causing global warming

Being amazing doesn't make it wrong. 

Methane is currently about 1.8 ppm in the atmosphere, which seems paltry compared to the 400+ ppm of CO2. Obviously CO2 is therefore over 200x the concentration in the atmosphere of methane. 

But atmospheric methane has about 80x the warming power of CO2, so it is estimated to be responsible for a full 25% or more of the observed climate warming. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:50:44 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 05:42:44 PM

Being amazing doesn't make it wrong.

Methane is currently about 1.8 ppm in the atmosphere, which seems paltry compared to the 400+ ppm of CO2. Obviously CO2 is therefore over 200x the concentration in the atmosphere of methane.

But atmospheric methane has about 80x the warming power of CO2, so it is estimated to be responsible for a full 25% or more of the observed climate warming.

I agree but that why Im asking has anyone ever dont experiments creating a copy of earths atmosphere and looking at its heat retention

and varying the mixture to see the results or is it simply assumed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 05:51:43 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:37:25 PM

It is just amazing that such a small number of units would be causing global warming

Or, let's put it another way. Let's say you weigh 100 kg (220 lbs).

Inhaling 300 NANOgrams of something shouldn't hurt you, right? It's just such a small number of units. It's only 0.0000000003% of your body mass!!!

Of course, on the other hand if it's botulinum toxin, it'll kill you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 05:55:55 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:50:44 PM

I agree but that why Im asking has anyone ever dont experiments creating a copy of earths atmosphere and looking at its heat retention

and varying the mixture to see the results or is it simply assumed

Yes. MANY experiments have been done. The relationship between CO2 and also methane as greenhouse gases is WELL understood. 

In fact, it's so well known and understood that it's an experiment you can do to show school children. https://www.steampoweredfamily.com/the-greenhouse-effect-experiment/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 06:01:27 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 05:55:55 PM

Yes. MANY experiments have been done. The relationship between CO2 and also methane as greenhouse gases is WELL understood.

In fact, it's so well known and understood that it's an experiment you can do to show school children. https://www.steampoweredfamily.com/the-greenhouse-effect-experiment/

thats a start but Id be more interested in creating a like earth atmosphere and testing from there by varying the % of co2 

etc

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2023, 06:05:46 PM

77 yesterday 39 and lite snow right now 🤪

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 06:10:12 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 06:01:27 PM

thats a start but Id be more interested in creating a like earth atmosphere and testing from there by varying the % of co2

etc

Sure, glad you asked. Here's some light reading:

https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/09/25/papers-on-laboratory-measurements-of-co2-absorption-properties/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 08:13:43 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 06:10:12 PM

Sure, glad you asked. Here's some light reading:

https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/09/25/papers-on-laboratory-measurements-of-co2-absorption-properties/

gee thanks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 17, 2023, 09:34:22 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2023, 05:51:43 PM

Or, let's put it another way. Let's say you weigh 100 kg (220 lbs).

Inhaling 300 NANOgrams of something shouldn't hurt you, right? It's just such a small number of units. It's only 0.0000000003% of your body mass!!!

Of course, on the other hand if it's botulinum toxin, it'll kill you.

Is that the one that caused Cincydawg to projectile vomit from the smell? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 09:10:08 AM

Interview: Climate Change – A Different Perspective with Judith Curry | Climate Etc. (https://judithcurry.com/2021/01/30/interview-climate-change-a-different-perspective-with-judith-curry/)

I find this woman's comments of interest, and follow her blog.  A lot of the featured items get too technical for me, but I'm used to that.  I think she knows her stuff, she's not a kook, doesn't appear to have an agenda beyond trying to calm down the more dramatic and sensational claims from both "sides".

Judith Curry: Well, there is almost certainly a signal of manmade emissions the earth climate. All other things being equal, it’s warmer than it would otherwise be. The real issue is the magnitude of man-made warming relative to the whole host of other things that go on in the natural climate system. And then the bigger issue is really whether this warming is dangerous. You know, a certain amount of warming is generally regarded by people as a good thing. But a whole lot of warming, isn’t especially a good thing, especially if it’s melting ice sheets and causing sea level rise.

Sea level rise operates on very long timescales. And the manmade warming that we’ve seen so far, I don’t think is really contributing much to the sea level rise that we’ve observed so far. I mean, that’s just a much longer term processes. And even if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide today, the sea level rise would keep rising. So, the climate system is way more complex than just something that you can tune, with a CO2 control knob. That just isn’t how it works.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 09:10:58 AM

Judith Curry: Okay. The climate models originated from weather forecast models, and then they added an ocean then land surface biosphere, and then chemical processes, and now ice sheets. They keep adding all these modules and increasing complexity of the models,  but the basic dynamics are driven by the same kind of models that model the weather. We’ve learned a lot from climate models, by running experiments, turning things off, turning things on adjusting parameters, taking clouds out, taking sea ice out, holding the sea surface temperature constant in the tropical central Pacific and see what happens, you know, we learn how the climate works by using climate models in that way. However, the most consequential applications of climate models are to tell us what caused the 20th century climate change, how much the climate change is going to change in the 21st century and what’s causing extreme weather events.

I mean, those are the more consequential applications and climate models aren’t fit for any of those purposes. And that’s pretty much acknowledged even in the IPCC report. Well, they, they do claim that they can attribute the global warming, but this can’t be easily separated from the natural variability associated with large-scale ocean circulations. And the way they’ve used climate models to do that involves circular reasoning, where they throw out climate simulations that really don’t match what was observed. So you, you end up, even if you’re not explicitly tuning to the climate record, you’re implicitly tuning. And then the thing with extreme events, weather events is beyond silly because these climate models can’t resolve the extreme events and they can’t simulate the ocean circulation patterns that really determine the locations of these extreme events. And then when you start talking about 21st century, the only thing they’re looking at is the manmade human emissions forcing, they’re not predicting solar variability.

They’re not not predicting volcanic eruptions. They can’t even predict the timing of these multidecadal to millennial ocean oscillation. So all they’re looking at is this one little piece. Okay. So, what are you supposed to do with all that? Not sure we know much more than the sign of the change from more CO2 in the atmosphere, which is more warming. And then there’s another thing. The most recent round of global climate model simulations, the so-called CMIP5 for the IPCC 6th assessment report. All of a sudden the sensitivity to CO2 the range has substantially increased in a lot of the models, way outside the bounds on the high side of what we thought was plausible, even five years ago. So what are we to make of that? And how did that happen? Well, it, it’s a, it’s a rather arcane issue related to how clouds cloud particles interact with aerosol particles.
By adding some extra degrees of freedom into the model related to clouds, then it becomes all of a sudden way more sensitive to increases in CO2. What are we supposed to make of that? I mean, we do not have a convergent situation with these climate models. And this is not mention that the 21st century projections from the climate models, don’t include solar variations. They don’t include volcanoes or the ocean circulation, all of these things that they don’t include. So what are we left with? And then there are these precise targets, such as we will exceed our carbon budget in 2038. This is way too much precision that is derived from these very inadequate climate models.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 09:16:35 AM

udith Curry: Well, first off, people are looking for simple problems with simple solutions, and they thought that climate change was a simple problem, sort of like the ozone hole. Stop emitting chloroflourocarbons – stop the ozone hole; stop emitting CO2 – stop the global warming. There’s no way we’re going to make progress on CO2 emissions until we come up with alternatives that are reliable, abundant, secure, economical, et cetera, Wind and solar, aren’t the answer. All other things being equal, everybody would prefer clean over dirty energy. That’s a no brainer, maybe a few coal companies prefer dirty, but everybody would prefer clean, clean energy, but they’re not willing to sacrifice those other things like cost and reliability.

So it just doesn’t make sense. All of these targets and promises about energy are just so much hot air, if you will, sound and fury. We don’t have solutions and nobody’s meeting their targets. I mean, all they do is go to these meetings, make more and more stringent commitments that everyone knows aren’t going to be met. And at the same time, we’re not dealing with the real problems that might be addressed. For example, water is a big issue, we either have too much or too little. Independent of man-made global warming, let let’s sort out our water supply systems and our flood management strategies. How, how do we prepare for droughts? Lets focus on the current problems that we have – food, water, and energy. Those are the three big ones.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 09:20:37 AM

Judith Curry: I regard myself as sort of a centrist. I’m politically independent. I don’t have any allegiance to one side or the other.. I understand the complexity of the problems, and I don’t really advocate for any solutions because I can’t think of any that I would want to advocate for that actually makes sense. You know, other than broadly talking about, we need to adapt no matter what, and if you want clean energy, you need to invest in better technologies. You’re not gonna get very far in preventing climate change by trying to massively deploy 20th century technologies. These are the kind of general statements that I’ve been making. But because I wasn’t actively advocating with the greens and I was critical of the behavior of some of the scientists involved in the climate gate episode. I got booted over to the denier side. And they tried to cancel me. I don’t have any allegiance to the extremes of either side of this, but the alarmists seem to be completely intolerant to disagreement and criticism.

There’s crazy people on both sides of the debate. There’s a range of credible perspectives that I try to consider. it’s a very complex problem and we don’t have the answers yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 09:33:37 AM

Judith Curry: There’s one example from today in the U.S, they’re passing the new budget and wanting to get a rider included related to clean energy. And what they agreed on was an R & D program for nuclear, carbon capture and all that kind of stuff. And the people on the left really objected to it because they don’t like nuclear just because they don’t like it. And they don’t like carbon capture and storage because  that lets the oil companies off the hook. So, so the hard core green activists don’t like either one of those. Here you have a bipartisan agreement to do something that is fundamentally pretty sensible. Then you’ve got the people on the far left objecting to it over silly biases and things that just make no sense

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 10:04:29 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 08:13:43 PM

gee thanks

You said you wanted science. 

Okay, want something lighter? Here's an overview of the history of climate science and how we got to the understanding that CO2 is a greenhouse gas that's warming the planet.

https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

It goes all the way back to 1859 (and even earlier) when scientists were trying to understand how glaciers once covered the bulk of northern Europe and they were no longer around, and speculating about the idea that glacial periods coincided with lower CO2 and warm periods coincided with higher CO2. 1859, however, was the start of simple laboratory measurements that showed that CO2 and methane actually trapped heat. 

There was a lot of contention in the theories but it seems like it really kicked off in the 1950s due to improved laboratory methods and the power of computers for calculation. 

This isn't some new idea dreamed up by the left that CO2 is a greenhouse gas that warms the planet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 10:20:32 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 10:04:29 AM

This isn't some new idea dreamed up by the left that CO2 is a greenhouse gas that warms the planet.

I don't think anyone here has suggested this.

My main problem with the whole thing is it's been weaponized and turned into a political point for both sides.

Go figure.

Some of us can see beyond the sides. Most cannot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 10:36:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 10:20:32 AM

I don't think anyone here has suggested this.

My main problem with the whole thing is it's been weaponized and turned into a political point for both sides.

Go figure.

Some of us can see beyond the sides. Most cannot.

EVERY "F"ing thing has been
COVID, Global Warming, Race issues, Education, Employment, immigration, election fraud

When's the last time the two sides agreed on something?
no to term limits, yes to higher taxes, yes to printing money, yes to growing the budget

great! ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 10:36:53 AM

I've seen one poster apparently wanting evidence that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  He suggested a kind of science fair experiment, which someone likely has done, for a science fair.

The Greenhouse Effect Experiment and Lesson for Kids (steampoweredfamily.com) (https://www.steampoweredfamily.com/the-greenhouse-effect-experiment/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 10:39:48 AM

one poster or one congressman? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 10:42:02 AM

Not many in Congress could spell out a simple paragraph about any of this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 10:44:28 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 10:20:32 AM

I don't think anyone here has suggested this.

No. But 320 is questioning the basic validity of the science as to whether CO2 and methane as understood being greenhouse gases has every actually been shown.

So I wanted to highlight there is a LONG history of science on greenhouse gases and it is well established enough--and done over such a long time period--that the basic science showing the greenhouse effect of CO2 should be seen as free of politicization. 

That there's been TONS of politicization of it is absolutely true. And I think there is a ton of valid debate there about not only how much warming there will be, or whether there are negative feedback loops that may mitigate it. There's debate whether that warming is actually harmful or not. If harmful, there's debate whether it's more harmful than the negative economic effects of trying to mitigate it now. And even then, there is a bunch of political hypocrisy where it seems that the efforts to combat it are "restrictions on thee, but not on me", by our "betters". 

But when responding directly to 320 here, we need to come to agreement (or not) on the basic science, and I'm trying to highlight that the basic science of CO2 as a greenhouse gas warming the planet is really not something that anyone serious in this game is bothering to debate. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 10:46:41 AM

The Earth is one kind of big "box" with incident solar radiation which is known and a global temperature (which is sort of known).  It's pretty easy to calculate how the temperature would change if we had no CO2.  And one can look at Venus as an example of a runaway GH effect, and Mars as another example where very little incident heat is retained.

I take is as a fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  I take is as a fact that the levels have risen over the past 100 years or so from about 280 to over 410 ppm.  I take it as fact this is due to burning a lot of fossil fuels.  I take as fact this COULD impact our climate. 

I am less certain that our climate models are precise enough to be relied upon.  Quite a bit less certain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2023, 10:47:04 AM

Got use to a week of 60/70 deg now a blustery 36 sporadic snow/sleet,cloudy,damp - throw another witch on the fire brrr.🥶

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 10:51:03 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 10:36:26 AM

EVERY "F"ing thing has been
COVID, Global Warming, Race issues, Education, Employment, immigration, election fraud

When's the last time the two sides agreed on something?

no to term limits, yes to higher taxes, yes to printing money, yes to growing the budget

great! ;)

To me, calling them sides only has to do with the R or D after their name.

They are on the same side in reality. Mission? Keep power and control. 

With few exceptions, they are all FoS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 10:52:56 AM

The two sides do agree they want to be reelected.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 10:55:09 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 10:44:28 AM

No. But 320 is questioning the basic validity of the science as to whether CO2 and methane as understood being greenhouse gases has every actually been shown.

So I wanted to highlight there is a LONG history of science on greenhouse gases and it is well established enough--and done over such a long time period--that the basic science showing the greenhouse effect of CO2 should be seen as free of politicization.

That there's been TONS of politicization of it is absolutely true. And I think there is a ton of valid debate there about not only how much warming there will be, or whether there are negative feedback loops that may mitigate it. There's debate whether that warming is actually harmful or not. If harmful, there's debate whether it's more harmful than the negative economic effects of trying to mitigate it now. And even then, there is a bunch of political hypocrisy where it seems that the efforts to combat it are "restrictions on thee, but not on me", by our "betters".

But when responding directly to 320 here, we need to come to agreement (or not) on the basic science, and I'm trying to highlight that the basic science of CO2 as a greenhouse gas warming the planet is really not something that anyone serious in this game is bothering to debate.

1. Yep, and it's a fair debate. An analogy: Do you let the cure (prolonged lockdowns) become worse than the disease (Covid)?

2. I don't think any of us fly around on private jets to attend climate meetings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 11:03:24 AM

We're all for cleaner air and water.  We may disagree about how to get it of course, and how much to pay for it.

I would like to "sunset" coal for electricity in the US, ideally with nuclear.  If W&S can help, great, but we have to have reliable base load power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 11:18:36 AM

I dont question the fact that co2 is a greenhouse gas 

Im questioning whether or not the very small amount by comparison man made co2 is the cause of global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 11:36:17 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 11:18:36 AM

I dont question the fact that co2 is a greenhouse gas

Im questioning whether or not the very small amount by comparison man made co2 is the cause of global warming

But the problem is that you keep harping on this "4%" thing. And BTW I think you're actually misinterpreting this entirely by saying man-made CO2 is only 4% of the CO2 in the atmosphere, when the reality is that man-made CO2 is actually about 4 (potentially 5%) of annual emissions.

But it's actually WAY more complicated than that, due to the carbon cycle. Because there are natural emissions and natural sinks of carbon, these things go in a cycle. However, we DO have the ability to determine somewhat the source of carbon based on the ratio between C12, C13, and C14 isotopes of carbon in the atmosphere as the ratio. And this is what we see.

https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=384

Quote

Isotopic Signature Shows Increased Fossil Fuels Emissions in Atmosphere

Isotopic evidence points to fossil fuels as the source of CO2 emissions. Carbon is composed of three different isotopes (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/): carbon-12, 13, and 14.  Carbon-12 is by far the most common, while carbon-13 is about 1% of the total, and carbon-14 accounts for only about 1 in 1 trillion carbon atoms in the atmosphere.

CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has a different isotopic composition than CO2 in the atmosphere. This is because plants have a preference for the lighter isotope (carbon-12); thus they have lower carbon-13 to 12 ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same carbon-13 to 12 ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average carbon-13 to 12 ratio of the atmosphere decreases.

Reconstructions of atmospheric carbon isotope ratios from various proxies, such as tree rings and ice cores, have determined that the carbon-13 to 12 ratios in the atmosphere are the lowest today than they’ve been in the last 10,000 years. Furthermore, the carbon-13 to 12 ratios begin to decline dramatically just as the CO2 starts to increase — around 1850 AD. This is exactly what we expect if the increased CO2 is in fact due to fossil fuel burning beginning in the Industrial Revolution. These isotopic observations confirm (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/256/5053/74.abstract) that the increase in atmospheric CO2 comes from plant-based carbon (http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/learning-from-bastardis-mistakes/), not from the oceans or volcanoes. 


(https://i.imgur.com/lofTxhR.png)

How can this be, if human activity is only 4-5% of annual emissions? 

I tried to explain via diet. If you weigh a certain amount, and your body is in equilibrium, with 2500 calories consumed each day and 2500 calories burned, you'll remain at a steady weight. But if each day you add ONE light beer--a Mich Ultra at 96 calories--without changing anything else and assuming no metabolic changes, you'll gain 100 lbs over 10 years. In actuality, this won't be true--metabolism does adjust and the energy spent digesting that beer will be somewhere between 0 and 96 calories. And as you start gaining weight your metabolism will increase from daily energy expenditure of being bigger. So you'll actually end up putting on weight, but probably not as much as predicted by the math. 

We see the same thing in climate. The Earth was in equilibrium between the amount of natural CO2 emitted and the amount that it was able to sink every year. Predictably (based on the fact that long term climate stability) there was an additional amount of CO2 that the earth could sink. This was covered in an earlier post. Natural emissions are about 120 gigatons of CO2, and based on what we've seen over the last 100+ years of burning carbon, about 122 gigatons can be taken up by the earth. Unfortunately, we're burning an additional 7 gigatons (for 127 GT total), and thus the actual atmospheric carbon is rising because the earth can't absorb it. It's only 4-5% of the annual total, but because it exceeds the earth's capability to sink, it has nowhere to go but stay in the atmosphere. 

It can be explained via picture:

(https://i.imgur.com/tJ7GqnX.png)

The pipe at the bottom is only so big. We'll call it having a maximum capability flow rate of 122 gallons per minute. At 120 gpm emissions, the water pressure stays low enough that only 120 gpm flows out. At 122 gpm, the water pressure increases but can remain in equilibrium so the water level stays constant (at a slightly higher level). 

But if you increase the inflow to 127 gpm, then the water level just keeps rising, and rising, and rising. Now, if you do that ONE time, for ONE minute, and then it drops back to 120 gpm, the tub will eventually return to equilibrium. But if you just keep the inflow at 127 gpm in perpetuity, eventually the tub overflows. 

A 4% increase in annual emissions is enough to overwhelm the system. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 12:10:32 PM

How do we know what the true balance is

We are assuming that the earth is in balance cause thats where we were before man
How do we know the earth cant increase this balance to accommodate a very small amount of additional co2

again in my example if total atmosphere volume equals 10,000 units

total co2 would be 40 units

Man made co2 would be 1.6 units

we are saying 1.6 units out of 10,000 is just too much and a surplus will build up

We are just assuming cause I dont think we really know

we look at what has happened in the last 150 years and design our models based on that 

The earth has existed for 4.5 billion years and the co2 amount has gone up and gone down

do we know why

I dont think so

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 12:19:58 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 11:36:17 AM

I tried to explain via diet. If you weigh a certain amount, and your body is in equilibrium, with 2500 calories consumed each day and 2500 calories burned, you'll remain at a steady weight. But if each day you add ONE light beer--a Mich Ultra at 96 calories--without changing anything else and assuming no metabolic changes, you'll gain 100 lbs over 10 years. In actuality, this won't be true--metabolism does adjust and the energy spent digesting that beer will be somewhere between 0 and 96 calories. And as you start gaining weight your metabolism will increase from daily energy expenditure of being bigger. So you'll actually end up putting on weight, but probably not as much as predicted by the math.

here again you make assumption that the person cant adjust this balance and thats wrong

this person could increase their exercise activity and accommodate the additional calories

we dont know everything there is to know about nature and the accommodations it makes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 12:37:15 PM

If I'm not careful, I'm going to learn something

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 12:49:18 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 12:37:15 PM

If I'm not careful, I'm going to learn something

ok Bart

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 12:50:11 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 12:10:32 PM

How do we know what the true balance is

We are assuming that the earth is in balance cause thats where we were before man
How do we know the earth cant increase this balance to accommodate a very small amount of additional co2

again in my example if total atmosphere volume equals 10,000 units

total co2 would be 40 units

Man made co2 would be 1.6 units

we are saying 1.6 units out of 10,000 is just too much and a surplus will build up

We are just assuming cause I dont think we really know

we look at what has happened in the last 150 years and design our models based on that

The earth has existed for 4.5 billion years and the co2 amount has gone up and gone down

do we know why

I dont think so

First point: you keep repeating this "total CO2 is 40 units and man-made would be 1.6 units" which suggests you're not reading what I'm writing. You keep confusing the 4%(-ish) annual emissions added to the system by man, and there's no evidence that over a 150-year period, that means that man-made CO2 is only 4% of total atmospheric CO2. You have nothing to back up that leap of faith. 

Second point: you're assuming that "we don't know" whether the earth can balance despite the fact that people have been looking at this science in very great detail since the 1950s. We know how much is emitted. We measure how much ends up in plant material, in the ocean, etc. That's where that 122 gigaton number comes from--we actually observe that. And we know over a 150 year period, the earth is NOT increase this balance because it's accumulating in the atmosphere. 

Third point: The Earth will absolutely accommodate this balance. But the Earth's time horizon for making these sort of adjustments operate on the Earth's time, not ours. I'm actually not worried about the long-term health of the Earth. I'm worried about its short-term ability to feed a population of 8 billion human beings. The Earth will be fine. Humans just might be f$^#%d. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 12:19:58 PM

here again you make assumption that the person cant adjust this balance and thats wrong

this person could increase their exercise activity and accommodate the additional calories

we dont know everything there is to know about nature and the accommodations it makes

Yes, a person could adjust. A person has reason, volition, and agency. Thus a person can change their behavior very quickly to respond to changing inputs.

Nature, too, can [and will] adjust. However, the last 150 years suggest that we're acting much faster than nature can adjust. There's no reason to believe, based on 150 years of evidence, that we can continue emitting this much excess CO2 and that nature will respond quickly enough to save us from ourselves, even if nature will eventually adjust. 

But your response seems to consistently be that "we don't know everything, therefore we shouldn't even pay any attention to this and/or do anything about it." Whereas my response is "we know enough that we should at least be taking this seriously, because all trends are to a place where we don't really know what consequences we might face."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 12:58:13 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 12:50:11 PM

But your response seems to consistently be that "we don't know everything, therefore we shouldn't even pay any attention to this and/or do anything about it." Whereas my response is "we know enough that we should at least be taking this seriously, because all trends are to a place where we don't really know what consequences we might face."

I do take it seriously
they want to take my gas appliances away
they want to take away my gas driven auto
they are taking away my coal powered power plant and replacing it with wind mills

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 01:02:17 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 12:50:11 PM

First point: you keep repeating this "total CO2 is 40 units and man-made would be 1.6 units" which suggests you're not reading what I'm writing. You keep confusing the 4%(-ish) annual emissions added to the system by man, and there's no evidence that over a 150-year period, that means that man-made CO2 is only 4% of total atmospheric CO2. You have nothing to back up that leap of faith.

youre not reading what Im writing

I posted 3 article sources for the 4% number

see next post

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 01:03:54 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2023, 05:31:11 PM

Here are some sources for supporting that man made co2 being aprox 4% of toal co2 in our atmosphere let me know if you need more


https://www.echopress.com/opinion/letter-only-a-tiny-percent-of-co2-in-the-atmosphere-is-man-made

https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-the-CO2-in-the-atmosphere-is-man-made-What-contributes-the-most-CO2

https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/16188/which-percentage-of-textco-2-emissions-are-human-made-emissions

here they are

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 01:21:00 PM

The critical figure is how much of the additional CO2 in theh atmosphere is due to human activities.  Yes, the planet aside from humans generates a lot of CO2, and absorbs about the same amount, so you end up "neutral".  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 01:41:21 PM

no fear of a Longhorn learning anything

they all seem to know everything

those 10-gallon hats are plumb full

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 01:50:06 PM

Not nice!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 01:52:34 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 01:02:17 PM

youre not reading what Im writing

I posted 3 article sources for the 4% number

see next post

Again, you're talking about annual emissions, not actual percentage of man-made CO2 in the atmosphere. 

Your first link is a letter to the editor, by a person of unknown background and credibility. He claims it's 3.2% of CO2 in the atmosphere, citing some DOE 2000 report I can't find via google. However, given the closeness of the number to the estimates of man-made annual emissions, I see no reason to believe that it's not an error that he has made that is identical to the one you have made. 

Your second link is to Quora, which is a question-and-answer site not terribly unlike a message board. The first answer by Windell Driskell (retired USAF and not climate scientist) repeats that about 97% is produced by nature. The use of the word "produced" would be consistent with an understanding of annual emissions. He does not claim it's 97% of the atmospheric CO2 level. A second answer by George Dowson (byline says he's a researcher in CCUS, aka carbon capture, utilization, and storage) reiterates the claim I've made that it's about 5% of annual emissons but a major driver of atmospheric CO2 rise. A third response by Cristian Bellafonte (entrepreneur) reiterates the idea that 3.2% is produced or by-produced by man, which again points to annual emissions. He never claims that it is 3.2% or 4% of the current atmosphere. A fourth response by Edward Measure (retired physicist) doesn't use any percentage claim, but says burning fossil fuels, and manufacture of cement and steel is a smaller contribution than natural sources. However he claims that because this additional CO2 is unbalanced, it drives the increase in atmospheric CO2. Beyond that there are some older answers, which range from "less than 10%" to around 33% of atmospheric CO2 is man made. Either way, I'd suggest that Quora is a poor source for, well, anything. 

Your third link is again a question and answer site. However, the only posted answer to the question clearly explains that the idea of 3% of emissions (referring to annual emissions) being man-made, it leads to a much higher total atmospheric concentration because the carbon cycle cannot sink the extra emissions. 

So your links don't actually prove anything. They're not from reputable sources, and two of the three don't even claim what you say they're claiming. 

Have you read any of the links I've provided? If not, I highly recommend these:

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/
https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 01:55:25 PM

Federal appeals court scraps Berkeley, California’s ban on natural gas hookups | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/3956712-federal-appeals-court-scraps-berkeley-californias-ban-on-gas-hookups/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:02:41 PM

Environmentalists: Certified natural gas efforts fail to contain damaging leaks (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3954799-certified-natural-gas-leaks-report/)

Natural gas is mostly methane — a pollutant that warms the planet dozens of times more powerfully than carbon dioxide — as well as a spicing of potential carcinogens (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/3539004-natural-gas-used-in-homes-may-contain-hazardous-air-pollutants-study/), as The Hill reported.
Its small molecules also leak easily from wellheads, valves and pipelines — leaks which may cancel out any climate benefits of gas over coal (https://www.science.org/content/article/natural-gas-could-warm-planet-much-coal-short-term), according to a 2018 study in Science. That study also found that the Environmental Protection Agency was likely undercounting methane leaks by 60 percent. 
And while the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that gas was slightly less carbon-intensive than coal — even with leaks factored in — it also estimated that the world energy industry leaked 135 million tons of methane in 2022 (https://www.iea.org/news/methane-emissions-remained-stubbornly-high-in-2022-even-as-soaring-energy-prices-made-actions-to-reduce-them-cheaper-than-ever). According to U.S. government data, that’s the equivalent emissions of 900 coal plants (http://epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator#results) — or nearly 8,500 gas plants — running year round without producing anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:03:40 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 01:41:21 PM

no fear of a Longhorn learning anything

they all seem to know everything

those 10-gallon hats are plumb full

yep

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 02:08:34 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/FoQXEKs.jpg)


^^^ What happens when an engineer and an accountant argue about CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:19:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:02:41 PM

Environmentalists: Certified natural gas efforts fail to contain damaging leaks (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3954799-certified-natural-gas-leaks-report/)

Natural gas is mostly methane — a pollutant that warms the planet dozens of times more powerfully than carbon dioxide — as well as a spicing of potential carcinogens (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/3539004-natural-gas-used-in-homes-may-contain-hazardous-air-pollutants-study/), as The Hill reported.
Its small molecules also leak easily from wellheads, valves and pipelines — leaks which may cancel out any climate benefits of gas over coal (https://www.science.org/content/article/natural-gas-could-warm-planet-much-coal-short-term), according to a 2018 study in Science. That study also found that the Environmental Protection Agency was likely undercounting methane leaks by 60 percent.
And while the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that gas was slightly less carbon-intensive than coal — even with leaks factored in — it also estimated that the world energy industry leaked 135 million tons of methane in 2022 (https://www.iea.org/news/methane-emissions-remained-stubbornly-high-in-2022-even-as-soaring-energy-prices-made-actions-to-reduce-them-cheaper-than-ever). According to U.S. government data, that’s the equivalent emissions of 900 coal plants (http://epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator#results) — or nearly 8,500 gas plants — running year round without producing anything.

Do you have any idea how much methane in our atmosphere is man made or caused?

Its about 10 parts per million.

Seems pretty small to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:22:17 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 02:08:34 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/FoQXEKs.jpg)


^^^ What happens when an engineer and an accountant argue about CO2.

I think being an accountant is to my benefit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:25:26 PM

Yes, I am generally familiar with the composition of our atmosphere.  I know for example nearly 1% is argon, and nearly 80% is nitrogen.  I also understand how a tiny tiny portion of a thing can be deleterious.    Take fluoromethyl sulfate, something so toxic Aldric Chemical stopped making it.

It's bad stuff.  Then there is palytoxin, one of the most toxic nonpeptides known.  I can appreciate that a tiny amount of a thing can have very serious effects.

But no doubt some think that because a thing is only present in ppm concentrations it can't possibly have any real impact.  Fine with me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:32:46 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:25:26 PM

Yes, I am generally familiar with the composition of our atmosphere.  I know for example nearly 1% is argon, and nearly 80% is nitrogen.  I also understand how a tiny tiny portion of a thing can be deleterious.    Take fluoromethyl sulfate, something so toxic Aldric Chemical stopped making it.

It's bad stuff.  Then there is palytoxin, one of the most toxic nonpeptides known.  I can appreciate that a tiny amount of a thing can have very serious effects.

But no doubt some think that because a thing is only present in ppm concentrations it can't possibly have any real impact.  Fine with me.

Im very skeptical about this as you can tell
I fear this is just a political tool being used as an excuse to glean power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:37:10 PM

It clearly is a political tool, in my view, as well.  There is much about this that makes little or no sense, to me, including this myth that "we" are doing very much about it.

This is why no one has a practicable plan to "solve" the issue, presuming it exists.  I'm personally less bothered by the basis of climate change than I am by the actions "we" are taking while pretending to solve anything.  IF climate change is real and truly serious, why aren't "we" moving aggressively with real plans to manage it?

"We" are just throwing money at it, and saying "wind and solar", with no clue about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:38:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:37:10 PM

It clearly is a political tool, in my view, as well.  There is much about this that makes little or no sense, to me, including this myth that "we" are doing very much about it.

This is why no one has a practicable plan to "solve" the issue, presuming it exists.  I'm personally less bothered by the basis of climate change than I am by the actions "we" are taking while pretending to solve anything.  IF climate change is real and truly serious, why aren't "we" moving aggressively with real plans to manage it?

"We" are just throwing money at it, and saying "wind and solar", with no clue about it.

amen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:39:43 PM

Germany shuts down last nuclear power plants, some scientists aghast (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/18/germany-shuts-down-last-nuclear-power-plants-some-scientists-aghast.html)

“While a legitimate decision, it is not a wise decision,” Storch told CNBC. “This out phasing of nuclear, with existing plants,  leads to an increase of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany, even though according to another political decision, the fast decarbonization should have priority,” Storch said.

“For me, as a climate scientist, the whole thing is incomprehensible,” Storch told CNBC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 02:59:54 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:19:35 PM

Do you have any idea how much methane in our atmosphere is man made or caused?

Its about 10 parts per million.

Seems pretty small to me.

Clearly you didn't read yesterday when I said that Methane was about 1.8 ppm in the atmosphere, which seems tiny compared to the 400+ ppm of CO2, but since methane has a warming effect about 80x stronger than CO2, it's believed to account for 25% or so of the total observed global warming. 

Small things can have big effects. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:32:46 PM

Im very skeptical about this as you can tell
I fear this is just a political tool being used as an excuse to glean power

I understand being skeptical of politicians. However, the science FAR predates anything the politicians have done about it. 

But, I don't know why I keep typing. You don't seem to be reading it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 03:04:52 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 02:59:54 PM

But, I don't know why I keep typing. You don't seem to be reading it.

I do read your posts I just dont share your view

also the only articles Ive seen say that methane is 25 times that of co2 not 80

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 03:09:21 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 03:04:52 PM

I do read your posts I just share your view

also the only articles Ive seen say that methane is 25 times that of co2 not 80

Here's one from Stanford: https://earth.stanford.edu/news/methane-and-climate-change

The claim is 80x over the first two decades after its release. Total lifetime effect might be lower (and could be 25x although I haven't seen that number) as methane does not remain in the atmosphere over periods as long as CO2. Thus if we curb emissions now, it will have a MUCH bigger effect by 2050 than if we were to curb CO2 emissions now. 

But if we keep emitting it, it'll keep doing its thing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 03:14:58 PM

Why do we compare methane to carbon dioxide over a 100-year timeframe? Are we underrating the importance of methane emissions? | MIT Climate Portal (https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/why-do-we-compare-methane-carbon-dioxide-over-100-year-timeframe-are-we-underrating)

The trouble is that the answer changes depending on how far in the future you look. Let’s say a factory releases a ton of methane and a ton of CO₂ into the atmosphere today. The methane immediately begins to trap a lot of heat—at least 100 times as much as the CO₂. But the methane starts to break down and leave the atmosphere relatively quickly. As more time goes by, and as more of that original ton of methane disappears, the steady warming effect of the CO₂ slowly closes the gap. Over 20 years, the methane would trap about 80 times as much heat as the CO₂. Over 100 years, that original ton of methane would trap about 25 times as much heat as the ton of CO₂.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 03:15:28 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 03:09:21 PM

Here's one from Stanford: https://earth.stanford.edu/news/methane-and-climate-change

The claim is 80x over the first two decades after its release. Total lifetime effect might be lower (and could be 25x although I haven't seen that number) as methane does not remain in the atmosphere over periods as long as CO2. Thus if we curb emissions now, it will have a MUCH bigger effect by 2050 than if we were to curb CO2 emissions now.

But if we keep emitting it, it'll keep doing its thing. 

heres one saying 25

https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane#:~:text=Methane%20is%20more%20than%2025,due%20to%20human%2Drelated%20activities.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 03:17:07 PM

Both answers are correct.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 03:18:43 PM

How Potent Is Methane? - FactCheck.org (https://www.factcheck.org/2018/09/how-potent-is-methane/)

Sen. Bernie Sanders said (https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1039570263254417409) methane is 86 times more potent than carbon dioxide, while others, including New Jersey Rep. Frank Pallone, said (https://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/newsroom/press-releases/pallone-on-trump-administration-s-methane-rule-roll-back) it was 25 times as potent. So, which is it — 86 or 25 times?

Perhaps surprisingly, both numbers are accurate. The amounts greatly vary, though, because they correspond to different time frames — a detail that often goes unmentioned when these statistics are given.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2023, 03:32:29 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 02:19:35 PM

Do you have any idea how much methane in our atmosphere is man made or caused?

Its about 10 parts per million.

Seems pretty small to me.

Testify 320,Damn straight use that math

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 03:38:15 PM

Nitrogen is present at 78%, about, and in every day life really has no impact on us at all.  It is very important to a number of things longer term of course, but not to the extent anyone would notice were it magically to disappear one day, for that day, being replaced by say argon.  This is why some underwater breathing mixtures have argon in place of nitrogen with no ill effect.

Oxygen of course is essential short term. Argon at nearly 1% is third most prevalent and basically irrelevant to much of anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 04:01:11 PM

Yeah, small amounts of stuff can't actually do anything, right? 

Quote

The cyanide cocktail

A man offers you a cocktail with a little bit of cyanide at a party. You reject that indignantly, but the man assures you it is completely safe: after all, the amount of cyanide in your body  after this drink would be only 0.001 percent! This could hardly be harmful! Those scientists who claim that 3 mg cyanide per kg of body weight (ie 0.0003 percent) are fatal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_cyanide) are obviously not to be trusted. Are you falling for that argument?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 04:32:12 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 04:01:11 PM

Yeah, small amounts of stuff can't actually do anything, right?

oh great we are comparing the global warming movement to taking cyanide

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 05:01:07 PM

Just arguing against the "well only 410 ppm CO2 / 1.8 ppm methane can't cause a problem because it's small numbers" mentality. 

It's a small percentage in a VERY big system. http://grisanik.com/blog/how-much-carbon-is-in-the-atmosphere/

I haven't checked the math, but that suggests that there are 3,208 gigatons of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere. 

410 ppm of a lot is, well, a lot. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 05:12:33 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 05:01:07 PM

Just arguing against the "well only 410 ppm CO2 / 1.8 ppm methane can't cause a problem because it's small numbers" mentality.

It's a small percentage in a VERY big system. http://grisanik.com/blog/how-much-carbon-is-in-the-atmosphere/

I haven't checked the math, but that suggests that there are 3,208 gigatons of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere.

410 ppm of a lot is, well, a lot.

not when you consider the vast expanse of atmosphere its located in

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2023, 05:23:17 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 05:12:33 PM

not when you consider the vast expanse of atmosphere its located in

It's not dispersed in some vast expanse.  Its presence is growing denser, not more dispersed.  PPM is a relative measure, not an absolute one. And it's up something like 30% over the timespan we're discussing.

It's really strange that you're arguing against measurable phenomena, here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 05:45:08 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 18, 2023, 05:23:17 PM

It's not dispersed in some vast expanse.  Its presence is growing denser, not more dispersed.  PPM is a relative measure, not an absolute one. And it's up something like 30% over the timespan we're discussing.

It's really strange that you're arguing against measurable phenomena, here.

my only point is that its .04% to total volume and the man made portion of co2 is 4% of that number
you can describe it however you wish but that is a very small number

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 05:55:42 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 05:12:33 PM

not when you consider the vast expanse of atmosphere its located in

And again, I'm guessing you didn't bother to read this despite posting it multiple times: https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

It details how a lot of those measurements that were improved during the 1950s pointed out that CO2 absorbs sunlight at different wavelengths compared to things like water vapor. So adding more CO2 to the atmosphere means you're going to absorb more sunlight rather than reflect it, leading to higher temperatures. The concentration is low, but it's significantly higher than where the historical mean has been. So, more warming. 

And I'm guessing you didn't bother to read this from CD: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than-pre-industrial-levels

Quote

CO₂  levels are now comparable to the Pliocene Climatic Optimum, between 4.1 and 4.5 million years ago, when they were close to, or above 400 ppm. During that time, sea levels were between 5 and 25 meters higher than todayoffsite link (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1543-2), high enough to drown many of the world’s largest modern cities. Temperatures then averaged 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in pre-industrial times, and studies indicateoffsite link (https://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/BrighamGrette_Science2013.pdf) that large forests occupied today’s Arctic tundra.

Hence a previous known time in history when we had CO2 levels this high, we had much higher sea levels and 7 degrees F higher temps than now. An empirical piece of evidence that higher CO2 = higher temps. 

And you still haven't responded to my link-by-link takedown of your supposed sources saying that man-made CO2 was only 4% of the atmosphere:

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 01:52:34 PM

Again, you're talking about annual emissions, not actual percentage of man-made CO2 in the atmosphere.

Your first link is a letter to the editor, by a person of unknown background and credibility. He claims it's 3.2% of CO2 in the atmosphere, citing some DOE 2000 report I can't find via google. However, given the closeness of the number to the estimates of man-made annual emissions, I see no reason to believe that it's not an error that he has made that is identical to the one you have made.

Your second link is to Quora, which is a question-and-answer site not terribly unlike a message board. The first answer by Windell Driskell (retired USAF and not climate scientist) repeats that about 97% is produced by nature. The use of the word "produced" would be consistent with an understanding of annual emissions. He does not claim it's 97% of the atmospheric CO2 level. A second answer by George Dowson (byline says he's a researcher in CCUS, aka carbon capture, utilization, and storage) reiterates the claim I've made that it's about 5% of annual emissons but a major driver of atmospheric CO2 rise. A third response by Cristian Bellafonte (entrepreneur) reiterates the idea that 3.2% is produced or by-produced by man, which again points to annual emissions. He never claims that it is 3.2% or 4% of the current atmosphere. A fourth response by Edward Measure (retired physicist) doesn't use any percentage claim, but says burning fossil fuels, and manufacture of cement and steel is a smaller contribution than natural sources. However he claims that because this additional CO2 is unbalanced, it drives the increase in atmospheric CO2. Beyond that there are some older answers, which range from "less than 10%" to around 33% of atmospheric CO2 is man made. Either way, I'd suggest that Quora is a poor source for, well, anything.

Your third link is again a question and answer site. However, the only posted answer to the question clearly explains that the idea of 3% of emissions (referring to annual emissions) being man-made, it leads to a much higher total atmospheric concentration because the carbon cycle cannot sink the extra emissions.

So your links don't actually prove anything. They're not from reputable sources, and two of the three don't even claim what you say they're claiming.

Have you read any of the links I've provided? If not, I highly recommend these:

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/
https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

Are you still holding to that belief that man-made CO2 is only 4% of the atmosphere? Or are you going to take your L and move on?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 05:56:53 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 05:45:08 PM

my only point is that its a fourth of one percent to total volume and the man made portion of co2 is 4% of that number
you can describe it however you wish but that is a very small number

Ahh. I see you are. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 05:59:41 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 05:55:42 PM

Are you still holding to that belief that man-made CO2 is only 4% of the atmosphere? Or are you going to take your L and move on?

actually its not 4% but .04% and the man made portion is 4% of that number


https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/07/30/co2-drives-global-warming/#:~:text=CO2%20makes%20up%20only%20about,to%20escape%20without%20being%20absorbed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 06:06:05 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 05:59:41 PM

actually its not 4% but .04% and the man made portion is 4% of that number


https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/07/30/co2-drives-global-warming/#:~:text=CO2%20makes%20up%20only%20about,to%20escape%20without%20being%20absorbed.

Misstatement on my part. I meant to say 4% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. I apologize for that.

But did you even read the entire text of the link you just sent? It's a link that says this in the ultimate paragraph:

Quote

Both water vapor and CO2 are responsible for global warming, and once we increase the CO2 in the atmosphere, the oceans warm up, which inevitably triggers an increase in water vapor. But while we have no way to control water vapor, we can control CO2. And because we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by continuing to burn fossil fuels, even in relatively small amounts compared to the entire mass of the atmosphere, we are disturbing the entire heat balance of the planet.

You're quoting a source that says even though CO2 is a small part of the entire mass of the atmosphere, we are disturbing the entire heat balance of the planet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 06:14:47 PM

I stand by the fact that these numbers are really small and raise question marks for me

Total atmosphere is 1,000,000 units

then total co2 would be 400 units

and the man made portion of co2 would be 16 units

if im wrong in my math please feel free to tell me

but 16 out of 1,000,000 aint much

man made methane is about 10 ppm so

the two biggest man made items that cause global warming are only  26 ppm combined

come on guys its really hard to believe this poses a big threat to man

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 06:23:28 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 06:14:47 PM

I stand by the fact that these numbers are really small and raise question marks for me

Total atmosphere is 1,000,000 units

then total co2 would be 400 units

and the man made portion of co2 would be 16 units

if im wrong in my math please feel free to tell me

but 16 out of 1,000,000 aint much

Really? Are you deliberately trolling me at this point? Or are you not reading anything I've posted for the last two days?

4% is NOT the amount of man-made CO2 in the air. 4% (or 3.2%, or 5%, depends when you look and the assumptions made) is the portion of annual emissions due to man. 

Read, again, what I said about your three links claiming that man-made portion is 4% of overall CO2 in the atmosphere:

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 01:52:34 PM

Again, you're talking about annual emissions, not actual percentage of man-made CO2 in the atmosphere.

Your first link is a letter to the editor, by a person of unknown background and credibility. He claims it's 3.2% of CO2 in the atmosphere, citing some DOE 2000 report I can't find via google. However, given the closeness of the number to the estimates of man-made annual emissions, I see no reason to believe that it's not an error that he has made that is identical to the one you have made.

Your second link is to Quora, which is a question-and-answer site not terribly unlike a message board. The first answer by Windell Driskell (retired USAF and not climate scientist) repeats that about 97% is produced by nature. The use of the word "produced" would be consistent with an understanding of annual emissions. He does not claim it's 97% of the atmospheric CO2 level. A second answer by George Dowson (byline says he's a researcher in CCUS, aka carbon capture, utilization, and storage) reiterates the claim I've made that it's about 5% of annual emissons but a major driver of atmospheric CO2 rise. A third response by Cristian Bellafonte (entrepreneur) reiterates the idea that 3.2% is produced or by-produced by man, which again points to annual emissions. He never claims that it is 3.2% or 4% of the current atmosphere. A fourth response by Edward Measure (retired physicist) doesn't use any percentage claim, but says burning fossil fuels, and manufacture of cement and steel is a smaller contribution than natural sources. However he claims that because this additional CO2 is unbalanced, it drives the increase in atmospheric CO2. Beyond that there are some older answers, which range from "less than 10%" to around 33% of atmospheric CO2 is man made. Either way, I'd suggest that Quora is a poor source for, well, anything.

Your third link is again a question and answer site. However, the only posted answer to the question clearly explains that the idea of 3% of emissions (referring to annual emissions) being man-made, it leads to a much higher total atmospheric concentration because the carbon cycle cannot sink the extra emissions.

So your links don't actually prove anything. They're not from reputable sources, and two of the three don't even claim what you say they're claiming.

Have you read any of the links I've provided? If not, I highly recommend these:

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/
https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

Of course, I say that you should read that "again", but I don't trust that you read it the first two times.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 06:26:05 PM

I'd highlight one thing here... If you're on one side of an argument about facts and science... And on the other side are me, @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) , and @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) -- maybe you should really think about what you're arguing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 06:28:12 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 06:23:28 PM

Really? Are you deliberately trolling me at this point? Or are you not reading anything I've posted for the last two days?

4% is NOT the amount of man-made CO2 in the air. 4% (or 3.2%, or 5%, depends when you look and the assumptions made) is the portion of annual emissions due to man.

Read, again, what I said about your three links claiming that man-made portion is 4% of overall CO2 in the atmosphere:


Of course, I say that you should read that "again", but I don't trust that you read it the first two times.

I already corrected this
total co2 is not 4% but instead .04% and man made co2 is 4% of that number

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 06:30:41 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 06:26:05 PM

I'd highlight one thing here... If you're on one side of an argument about facts and science... And on the other side are me, @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) , and @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) -- maybe you should really think about what you're arguing.

im only pointing out that total co2 is .04% and the man made portion of co2 is 4% of that number and commenting that that is a really small number to be threatening man

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 06:57:17 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 06:28:12 PM

I already corrected this
total co2 is not 4% but instead .04% and man made co2 is 4% of that number

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 06:30:41 PM

im only pointing out that total co2 is .04% and the man made portion of co2 is 4% of that number and commenting that that is a really small number to be threatening man

But I've explained it about a dozen times a dozen different ways, and @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) another half dozen, that you have no basis for the claim that man-made CO2 is only 4% of the 0.04% CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Even your own three links don't show it. One has no credibility, and the other two don't even claim it. Yet you keep repeating it. 

Man is responsible for 4% (give or take) of annual emissions of CO2. However, man is likely responsible for about 1/3 of the total accumulated CO2 in the atmosphere. Because that 4% is an increase in annual CO2 emissions that is overwhelming the natural ability of the Earth to sink additional CO2. So it's accumulating in the atmosphere. 

You either don't understand what I'm posting, you're not actually reading the posts and don't care, or you're repeating the same crap over and over despite understanding in order to troll me. Which is it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 08:21:54 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2023, 06:57:17 PM

But I've explained it about a dozen times a dozen different ways, and @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) another half dozen, that you have no basis for the claim that man-made CO2 is only 4% of the 0.04% CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Even your own three links don't show it. One has no credibility, and the other two don't even claim it. Yet you keep repeating it.

Man is responsible for 4% (give or take) of annual emissions of CO2. However, man is likely responsible for about 1/3 of the total accumulated CO2 in the atmosphere. Because that 4% is an increase in annual CO2 emissions that is overwhelming the natural ability of the Earth to sink additional CO2. So it's accumulating in the atmosphere.

You either don't understand what I'm posting, you're not actually reading the posts and don't care, or you're repeating the same crap over and over despite understanding in order to troll me. Which is it?

here are articles stating 3.2% of the co2 in the atmosphere is man made

https://www.echopress.com/opinion/letter-only-a-tiny-percent-of-co2-in-the-atmosphere-is-man-made

https://brainly.in/question/9453445

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 08:27:51 PM

tell me what your view is 

what is man made co2 as a % of total co2 currently in our atmosphere

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 07:34:22 AM

Gravity-based batteries try to beat their chemical cousins with winches, weights, and mine shafts | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/gravity-based-batteries-try-beat-their-chemical-cousins-winches-weights-and-mine-shafts?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=ownedSocial&fbclid=IwAR2E-WaywSArrYc1Ip4RPXcHVjbVhJeC72yPxy5HFfbvyw71PXFuTFYkg9s)

There also are a few hydrostorage dams around which do this with water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 09:50:28 AM

It's a very simple calculation if you understand the level has increased from 280 ppm to 421 ppm over the past century or so, nearly all of which is man made.

Carbon dioxide now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov) (https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than-pre-industrial-levels)

The increase is 141 ppm, which is about half of the 280 figure commonly used.  I don't know how this can be logically disputed or argued against.  It's a known fact.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 09:53:20 AM

Another, quite independent way that we know that fossil fuel burning and land clearing specifically are responsible for the increase in CO2 in the last 150 years is through the measurement of carbon isotopes. Isotopes (https://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=83) are simply different atoms with the same chemical behavior (isotope means “same type”) but with different masses. Carbon is composed of three different isotopes, 14C, 13C and 12C. 12C is the most common. 13C is about 1% of the total. 14C accounts for only about 1 in 1 trillion carbon atoms.
CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has quite a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere. This is because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (12C vs. 13C); thus they have lower 13C/12C ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same 13C/12C ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average 13C/12C ratio of the atmosphere decreases.

Isotope geochemists have developed time series of variations in the 14C and 13C concentrations of atmospheric CO2. One of the methods used is to measure the 13C/12C in tree rings, and use this to infer those same ratios in atmospheric CO2. This works because during photosynthesis, trees take up carbon from the atmosphere and lay this carbon down as plant organic material in the form of rings, providing a snapshot of the atmospheric composition of that time. If the ratio of 13C/12C in atmospheric CO2 goes up or down, so does the 13C/12C of the tree rings. This isn’t to say that the tree rings have the same isotopic composition as the atmosphere – as noted above, plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes, but as long as that preference doesn’t change much, the tree-ring changes wiil track the atmospheric changes.


RealClimate: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities? (https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2023, 10:10:23 AM

1. Phase out coal by 2033
2. Phase out hydropower by 2033 - remove dangerous dams based on dam failure analyses
3. Nuclear takes coal's place (it takes 5-7 years to build a plant)
4. Solar/Wind in strategic spots to take over for hydropower

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2023, 10:15:24 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 08:21:54 PM

here are articles stating 3.2% of the co2 in the atmosphere is man made

https://www.echopress.com/opinion/letter-only-a-tiny-percent-of-co2-in-the-atmosphere-is-man-made

https://brainly.in/question/9453445

"Articles"?!?!

The first one you've already posted, and I already pointed out that it's a letter to the editor, from a person of unknown background, with no credibility. 

The second one is a question/answer site, where two people of unknown background, and no credibility, claimed this. 

You're bringing spitwads to a gunfight here. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2023, 08:27:51 PM

tell me what your view is

what is man made co2 as a % of total co2 currently in our atmosphere

It's a bullshit and irrelevant question. CO2 is part of the carbon cycle, which means that man made CO2 will exist in our atmosphere, will be captured by growing plants, will be absorbed by the ocean. Isolating only one portion of the system (the atmosphere) is useless.

The important question is what has caused the rise in global atmospheric CO2 levels, and my view is that man-made CO2 burning via fossil fuels is responsible for the rise from 280 ppm to 400+ ppm. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2023, 10:16:30 AM

Heavy Turbulence on Flights Is Likely to Get Worse - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/turbulence-flights-injuries-safety-796cbe1?mod=hp_trending_now_article_pos1)



Interesting read.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 10:17:53 AM

We'd need a lot to change to build a nuclear power plant in 5-7 years.  It's doable, with those change, it just doesn't happen.

Vogtle 3 has taken ten years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2023, 10:20:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 09:53:20 AM

Another, quite independent way that we know that fossil fuel burning and land clearing specifically are responsible for the increase in CO2 in the last 150 years is through the measurement of carbon isotopes. Isotopes (https://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=83) are simply different atoms with the same chemical behavior (isotope means “same type”) but with different masses. Carbon is composed of three different isotopes, 14C, 13C and 12C. 12C is the most common. 13C is about 1% of the total. 14C accounts for only about 1 in 1 trillion carbon atoms.
CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has quite a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere. This is because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (12C vs. 13C); thus they have lower 13C/12C ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same 13C/12C ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average 13C/12C ratio of the atmosphere decreases.

Isotope geochemists have developed time series of variations in the 14C and 13C concentrations of atmospheric CO2. One of the methods used is to measure the 13C/12C in tree rings, and use this to infer those same ratios in atmospheric CO2. This works because during photosynthesis, trees take up carbon from the atmosphere and lay this carbon down as plant organic material in the form of rings, providing a snapshot of the atmospheric composition of that time. If the ratio of 13C/12C in atmospheric CO2 goes up or down, so does the 13C/12C of the tree rings. This isn’t to say that the tree rings have the same isotopic composition as the atmosphere – as noted above, plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes, but as long as that preference doesn’t change much, the tree-ring changes wiil track the atmospheric changes.


RealClimate: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities? (https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/)

OK you sold me

so going back to my ppm statement

total atmosphere units = 1,000,000

Total co2 units would be = 400

Total man made co2 units would be = 141

so all that remains is believing this very small number actually increases temp

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 10:26:14 AM

Any discussion as to how a small amount (or increase) in CO2 levels would affect climate would get very technical in a hurry.

If you are interested, you can read any number of sites on line about how greenhouse gases function and why a tiny amount can be pivotal.

If the CO2 composition were zero, our climate would be MUCH colder today.  And we'd not be here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2023, 10:35:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 10:26:14 AM

Any discussion as to how a small amount (or increase) in CO2 levels would affect climate would get very technical in a hurry.

If you are interested, you can read any number of sites on line about how greenhouse gases function and why a tiny amount can be pivotal.

If the CO2 composition were zero, our climate would be MUCH colder today.  And we'd not be here.

I really dont want to get a degree in this subject

just saying one of the reasons there are skeptics on this issue is the very small amount of man made co2 that currently exists in the atmosphere

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 10:39:51 AM

I think the main reason some are skeptics is confirmation bias.  Incidentally, I think most of the "climate warriors" out there know almost nothing about this topic as well.  They are convinced it's a massive issue, and couldn't write a simple paragraph describing it that was technically accurate.

My step son in law told me CO2 levels were the highest in Earth's history.  I asked where he got that and he said Al Gore's movie.  I don't think Gore ever claimed that, and it's blatantly incorrect.  (Gore's movie IMHO really damaged the possibility of having any rational discussion about this topic, it became very politicized.)

CO2 levels are going to continue to rise no matter how many meetings and agreements happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 10:46:02 AM

Climate explained: why carbon dioxide has such outsized influence on Earth's climate (theconversation.com) (https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064)

This is a pretty basic discussion of why CO2 at such low levels has such an impact.  This has been known for over a century.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2023, 10:48:54 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 19, 2023, 10:35:22 AM

I really dont want to get a degree in this subject

just saying one of the reasons there are skeptics on this issue is the very small amount of man made co2 that currently exists in the atmosphere

Try this one: https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064

A few key paragraphs (intervening paragraphs omitted):

Quote

Scientists had already calculated that the Earth was about 59 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) warmer than it should be (https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/ma_01/), given the amount of sunlight reaching its surface. The best explanation for that discrepancy was that the atmosphere retained heat to warm the planet.

Tyndall and Foote showed that nitrogen and oxygen, which together account for 99% of the atmosphere, had essentially no influence on Earth’s temperature because they did not absorb heat. Rather, they found that gases present in much smaller concentrations were entirely responsible for maintaining temperatures that made the Earth habitable, by trapping heat to create a natural greenhouse effect (https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm).

-------------

People sometimes ask me why carbon dioxide is important for climate, given that water vapor absorbs more infrared radiation and the two gases absorb at several of the same wavelengths. The reason is that Earth’s upper atmosphere controls the radiation that escapes to space. The upper atmosphere is much less dense and contains much less water vapor than near the ground, which means that adding more carbon dioxide significantly influences (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/06/a-saturated-gassy-argument/) how much infrared radiation escapes to space.

-------------


The influence of carbon dioxide can be seen in past changes in climate. Ice cores from over the past million years have shown that carbon dioxide concentrations were high during warm periods – about 0.028%. During ice ages, when the Earth was roughly 7 to 13 F (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming/page3.php) (4-7 C) cooler than in the 20th century, carbon dioxide made up only about 0.018% (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page4.php) of the atmosphere.

Even though water vapor is more important for the natural greenhouse effect, changes in carbon dioxide have driven past temperature changes. In contrast, water vapor levels in the atmosphere respond to temperature. As Earth becomes warmer, its atmosphere can hold more water vapor (https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11652-climate-myths-carbon-dioxide-isnt-the-most-important-greenhouse-gas/), which amplifies the initial warming (https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html) in a process called the “water vapor feedback.” Variations in carbon dioxide (https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html) have therefore been the controlling influence (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356?maxtoshow=&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=gavin+schmidt&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT) on past climate changes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 10:49:47 AM

:88:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2023, 10:52:45 AM

LOL...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 11:16:24 AM

Some of my friends in Cincy were rather liberal and on occasion I'd ask them some basic questions about their belief set (climate change, assault rifles, how great Europe is, etc.)  They didn't much like my doing that.

I'm always a bit surprised how a human can arrive at such strongly held beliefs while knowing virtually nothing about a topic.  The main thing about climate change, for me, continues to be that we really aren't going to do nearly enough about it no matter what if it's a serious problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2023, 11:21:15 AM

What is an assault rifle?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 11:23:00 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2023, 11:21:15 AM

What is an assault rifle?

The laws provide a legal definition of what they mean.  The real assault rifle is the Sturmgewehr 43, the term meaning literally "assault rifle" (and following guns of that general ilk).

Basically, it's a rifle that looks really scary.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2023, 11:31:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 11:23:00 AM

The laws provide a legal definition of what they mean.  The real assault rifle is the Sturmgewehr 43, the term meaning literally "assault rifle" (and following guns of that general ilk).

Basically, it's a rifle that looks really scary.

 the only legal definition Ive found says an assault rifle is a military weapon that is fully automatic

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 11:34:37 AM

The former Federal law banning the sale of new ones had a different definition based on "features" like a bayonet mount or barrel shroud or detachable magazine or adjustable stock, none of which really relate to lethality.

And weapons like the M-16 have a "select fire" switch that isn't really fully automatic past three rounds.

The real point is that they are rarely used to commit gun crimes, the percentage is single digit, lower if you count suicides.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2023, 11:40:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 11:23:00 AM

The laws provide a legal definition of what they mean.  The real assault rifle is the Sturmgewehr 43, the term meaning literally "assault rifle" (and following guns of that general ilk).

Basically, it's a rifle that looks really scary.

I have one of those, takes 556 NATO, but I wouldn't call it an assault rifle at all. It's never been used in an assault, never will be, and likely wouldn't be used for self-defense either.

Is a shotgun an assault weapon? Could be.

9mm pistol? Could be.

.380 pistol? Could be.

Weapons don't shoot on their own.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 11:52:03 AM

Definition of what’s an 'assault weapon' is a very contentious issue (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/definition-of-whats-an-assault-weapon-is-a-very-contentious-issue.html)

The 1994 federal assault weapons ban, officially known as the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act, was passed as a crime-fighting bill and identified more than a dozen specific models of firearms, including the Colt AR-15 (https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/103/hr4296/text), that were defined as semi-automatic assault weapons. It also defined the term by specific characteristics, such as the ability to accept a detachable magazine and by certain cosmetic features.

They were defined as having two or more features like a bayonet mount of pistol grip etc.  Anyway, another topic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2023, 12:08:28 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2023, 11:40:28 AM

I have one of those, takes 556 NATO, but I wouldn't call it an assault rifle at all. It's never been used in an assault, never will be, and likely wouldn't be used for self-defense either.

I believe you
but, once in a great while, these weapons fall into the wrong hands
banning and taking all the weapons used in school/mall/mass shootings off the streets is just not realistic.

folks aren't willing to give up their guns and politicians aren't willing to be voted out of office to try to make it happen

similar to term limits
there's really no use wishing there were no guns available to be attained by criminals that will do whatever is needed to obtain them

including smuggling them over the open southern border

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 20, 2023, 08:18:21 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 19, 2023, 10:35:22 AM

I really dont want to get a degree in this subject

just saying one of the reasons there are skeptics on this issue is the very small amount of man made co2 that currently exists in the atmosphere

The reason I am skeptical about this issue is that those that are demanding that we all pay a tax to prevent "global warming" or "global cooling" or "climate change" or whatever they will call it next week, are doing everything that they demand that the rest of us don't do. I see it as a power grab by those in position to grab that power and influence. Nothing more. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 08:21:04 AM

It can be a "power grab" (I think it is in many cases) and still a real threat.

Obviously, I have all sorts of issues with the push to be "green".  I view most of this as political pandering, we need to "do something".  There is very little reality in most of this.  The US really isn't doing all that much about it that impacts individual citizens, some additional spending which is pretty small relatively.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 20, 2023, 08:23:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2023, 11:23:00 AM

The laws provide a legal definition of what they mean.  The real assault rifle is the Sturmgewehr 43, the term meaning literally "assault rifle" (and following guns of that general ilk).

Basically, it's a rifle that looks really scary.

An assault rifle is a rifle that fires a mid range cartridge (5.56 or .223), has a detachable magazine and has a select to fire switch that will allow it to fire in semi-automatic or fulling automatic. 

By law, these rifles are illegal to own or operate without a federal license. 

The misleading term being bandied about is "assault weapon" that is meant to describe a scary looking gun. That has not industry definition and can mean anything from a Abrams tank to someone's well placed fist. Any object that can be used as a weapon to assault another person. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 08:32:16 AM

The term has had various "legal definitions".  I think most of us here understand what the term meant originally.  Since then, it has morphed.  But you can't ban a think legally without defining it.

The major point for me is that rifles en masse are used in a very small percentage of gun crimes.  The media coverage of course suggests something else because some cases involve publicized mass shootings (most of which would be as bad or worse if a shotgun were employed).  So, some magical ban on these rifles could not possibly dent crime figures by any statistical amount, and mass shooters would resort to other types of weapons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2023, 09:02:40 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 19, 2023, 12:08:28 PM

I believe you
but, once in a great while, these weapons fall into the wrong hands
banning and taking all the weapons used in school/mall/mass shootings off the streets is just not realistic.

folks aren't willing to give up their guns and politicians aren't willing to be voted out of office to try to make it happen

similar to term limits
there's really no use wishing there were no guns available to be attained by criminals that will do whatever is needed to obtain them

including smuggling them over the open southern border

Yup.  

If you want to see the Mexican cartels become even bloodier and more influential, go ahead and issue a widespread gun-ban in the USA.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 20, 2023, 09:21:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 08:32:16 AM

The term has had various "legal definitions".  I think most of us here understand what the term meant originally.  Since then, it has morphed.  But you can't ban a think legally without defining it.

The major point for me is that rifles en masse are used in a very small percentage of gun crimes.  The media coverage of course suggests something else because some cases involve publicized mass shootings (most of which would be as bad or worse if a shotgun were employed).  So, some magical ban on these rifles could not possibly dent crime figures by any statistical amount, and mass shooters would resort to other types of weapons.

Which term are you referring to, "assault rifle" or "assault weapon"?

As for the term assault rifle, it has a very specific definition that is defined by the gun manufacturers industry and the US military. I do not recognize anyone else's attempt to expand or change that definition. And if you pay close attention, gun bans proposed by politicians, never attempt to ban assault rifles as they are pretty much already illegal. They use the term "assault weapon" as a means to scare the public and to associate AR-15's and other sporting rifles as something to scary to allow people to own.

As to your point about rifles involved in crimes, I agree with you completely. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 09:44:04 AM

What you or I may "recognize" is not really the point.  We have various state laws banning these things, one could call them "bananas", and they are defined in said legislation (not that well in my view).

The term is often used in public parlance today, and polls suggest a majority would like an outright ban (however they are called).  They are "scary".

The facts of the matter are far less relevant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 09:45:27 AM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 20, 2023, 08:18:21 AM

The reason I am skeptical about this issue is that those that are demanding that we all pay a tax to prevent "global warming" or "global cooling" or "climate change" or whatever they will call it next week, are doing everything that they demand that the rest of us don't do. I see it as a power grab by those in position to grab that power and influence. Nothing more.

There are a lot of things to be skeptical about. 

That said, there are some things that are basically well-founded:

• CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
• The Earth's temperature is warming [at least partly] due to the increase from 280->400+ ppm of CO2. 
• Man is responsible for [most of if not all of] the increase in CO2 due to burning fossil fuels.
• Ergo, man is responsible for [at least some of] that warming. 

This is all basic stuff, and in my mind, has been more than well enough demonstrated as to be beyond skepticism by anyone who actually looks at the evidence. 

That said, I think there are three different groups when it comes to climate change: deniers, skeptics, and alarmists:

• Deniers: These are the people who claim CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas, claim it can't be a problem because it's a small amount, claim it's rising due to anything but man, that the Earth isn't actually warming, or anything else that essentially says "it's not happening and it's all a left-wing conspiracy". I personally find this group to have absolutely zero credibility on the issue. Most I find don't know shit about the issue and spew whatever "their tribe" comes up with to deny it.  
• Alarmists: These are the people that claim we're obviously warming the planet due to CO2 and that we absolutely must do everything in our power to stop it. Within this group, there are several contingents. First is the left-wing greenie wacko who just believes that if humans are doing something, and it changes the environment, it MUST be bad. Second is some of the scientists and policy types who think that we should do something to reduce based on the precautionary principle that we're in relatively uncharted territory here and it "could" get really bad based on models/etc. And the third are people who don't know shit about the issue but "their tribe" finds it important, they should be on board. What I often find in this group is that the first and third groups generally know nothing about economics, or actual feasibility of green alternative energy, and overestimate how easily we could transition away from fossil fuels. Group one can be ignored for the same reason I ignore the deniers. Group three is generally ignorant and boring to argue with because they don't know enough. I do think there can be a LOT of constructive dialogue between the skeptics and group two, though.  
• Skeptics: This is the group that accepts that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, that we're burning a shit-ton of it and warming the planet, but isn't quite sure whether that's bad enough to worry about, or if it's bad enough that it's worth spending a shit-ton of money [and creating a huge economic drag in doing so] trying to stop it. This is the group that looks at the question of is "warmer" bad, or might even be beneficial? If it's bad, how warm is "too" warm? What will be the cost in 2100 to mitigate the economic effects/dislocations that might occur due to that warming? What will be the natural transition away from fossil fuels due to new technologies over that time frame, and is it worth trying to force technology before its time to slightly accelerate that transition? How much will it freakin' cost, and is it worth it? Generally this group is the one that says as long as warming isn't going to lead to catastrophe, we as a world society and economy can probably just ride it out and be fine. 

As you might imagine, I consider myself in the skeptic group. Global warming is happening, it's real, and we're responsible for it. But the question of if it's actually a "problem" and what we should do--if anything--about it is where there is a lot of room for debate. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 09:46:18 AM

I'm pretty sure assault rifles have very little to do with weather, climate, or the environment... Maybe that's for the "In other news..." thread? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 09:46:51 AM

What we should do, IMHO, are a few things, as "insurance" in case this gets really bad, mainly get rid of coal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 09:49:34 AM

And IMHO my good deed for the week was shifting @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) from a denier to a skeptic :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2023, 10:00:41 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 09:46:51 AM

What we should do, IMHO, are a few things, as "insurance" in case this gets really bad, mainly get rid of coal.

Yep. But you have to replace it with something, and the only real answer is nuclear power plants.

I do not like fracking. At all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 10:04:23 AM

Germany just shut down their last three nuclear plants.  That is a very clear example of how public "policy" is driven by pandering to public "opinion".  That is what everyone is doing with climate change, pandering and pretending.  Over the next few years, we will continue to hear alarmist "warnings" about how countries are not meeting their "obligations" to cut CO2 usage.  Duh.

"Members of a Climate Conference in Hawaii today warned that countries have not met their commitments under the Paris Accords and in fact are lagging far behind."

AP (2027)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2023, 10:27:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 09:46:51 AM

What we should do, IMHO, are a few things, as "insurance" in case this gets really bad, mainly get rid of coal.

sounds great wake me when China and India do the same

no reason to give up coal in the US only if it wont solve the problem

China is building coal power plants as fast as they can

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2023, 10:36:58 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 09:49:34 AM

And IMHO my good deed for the week was shifting @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) from a denier to a skeptic :57:

you did not change me at all

I said prior and am saying now Im skeptical that 141 ppm will cause the earth the get hotter

I dont deny warming is taking place just what is causing it

but hey theres always tomorrow and I might come to my senses or maybe climate scientists might instead

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 10:42:54 AM

I'll reiterate, I find this woman's comment to be thought provoking, and I pretty much agree with her.  I think her stuff is well worth reading for anyone interested in the topic.

Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/)

She is not a "denier", she is skeptical about certain things like the models, she does believe our climate is warming because of human behaviors.  She views this as far more complex than just reducing CO2 emissions (which isn't happening).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 10:52:15 AM

I particularly liked her account of her testimony before a Senate committee.  It was predictably a waste of time and effort to label her as in the pay of "Exxon" etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 11:09:36 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 20, 2023, 10:36:58 AM

you did not change me at all

I said prior and am saying now Im skeptical that 141 ppm will cause the earth the get hotter

I dont deny warming is taking place just what is causing it

but hey theres always tomorrow and I might come to my senses or maybe climate scientists might instead

Ahh. Perhaps with the diversion talking about guns you didn't see or take the time to read this:

https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064 (https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064)

It lays it all out pretty well. 

The sun bombards the Earth with radiation. The Earth reflects it as infrared radiation. Without an atmosphere, that would just escape into space. With it, we trap that infrared in a "greenhouse effect". But what's responsible for trapping that?

The long and short of it is that 99% of the Earth's atmosphere is nitrogen (N2) and oxygen (O2). These molecules do NOT absorb infrared radiation, and do not contribute in any way to the greenhouse effect. Therefore all of the greenhouse effect is driven by the 1% leftover.

That greenhouse effect was studied in large part because back in the 1800s, scientists estimated that the Earth was 59 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it "should be" and were trying to figure out why. We "should" have been a lifeless ice ball, but something was warming us up. It was the greenhouse effect from that 1% of the atmosphere absorbing and retaining infrared radiation from the sun, reflected off the Earth, and not allowing it to escape back into space. 

Of that 1%, water vapor dominates the biggest proportion. But it's mostly low and around the Earth, and it is not increasing. CO2 in the upper atmosphere IS increasing, and it is effectively that "last line of defense" to stop that infrared radiation from escaping into space, and that's what's trapping the heat. That's why even though it's only 4% of the 1% that matters, and only 0.04% of the entire atmosphere, it has a VERY important effect. 

In the last million years of history, during warm periods we've been at 280 ppm. During ice ages we've been at 180 ppm. Those periods saw global temps 7-15F cooler than now. The last time global CO2 levels were around 400 ppm was 4 million years ago (https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-what-the-world-was-like-the-last-time-carbon-dioxide-levels-were-at-400ppm-141784), and global average temps were about 6F warmer than now. 

So I highly recommend you give it a read, and come to your senses. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2023, 11:33:58 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 11:09:36 AM

Ahh. Perhaps with the diversion talking about guns you didn't see or take the time to read this:

https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064 (https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-carbon-dioxide-has-such-outsized-influence-on-earths-climate-123064)

It lays it all out pretty well.

The sun bombards the Earth with radiation. The Earth reflects it as infrared radiation. Without an atmosphere, that would just escape into space. With it, we trap that infrared in a "greenhouse effect". But what's responsible for trapping that?

The long and short of it is that 99% of the Earth's atmosphere is nitrogen (N2) and oxygen (O2). These molecules do NOT absorb infrared radiation, and do not contribute in any way to the greenhouse effect. Therefore all of the greenhouse effect is driven by the 1% leftover.

That greenhouse effect was studied in large part because back in the 1800s, scientists estimated that the Earth was 59 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it "should be" and were trying to figure out why. We "should" have been a lifeless ice ball, but something was warming us up. It was the greenhouse effect from that 1% of the atmosphere absorbing and retaining infrared radiation from the sun, reflected off the Earth, and not allowing it to escape back into space.

Of that 1%, water vapor dominates the biggest proportion. But it's mostly low and around the Earth, and it is not increasing. CO2 in the upper atmosphere IS increasing, and it is effectively that "last line of defense" to stop that infrared radiation from escaping into space, and that's what's trapping the heat. That's why even though it's only 4% of the 1% that matters, and only 0.04% of the entire atmosphere, it has a VERY important effect.

In the last million years of history, during warm periods we've been at 280 ppm. During ice ages we've been at 180 ppm. Those periods saw global temps 7-15F cooler than now. The last time global CO2 levels were around 400 ppm was 4 million years ago (https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-what-the-world-was-like-the-last-time-carbon-dioxide-levels-were-at-400ppm-141784), and global average temps were about 6F warmer than now.

So I highly recommend you give it a read, and come to your senses.

I have read it and remain skeptical that 141 ppm increase in co2 is having the affect climate change folks  are saying it does

I believe man is causing co2 increase but by 141 ppm and Im not sold that this is causing warming to the degree that climate change folks are saying it is

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 12:00:31 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 20, 2023, 11:33:58 AM

I have read it and remain skeptical that 141 ppm increase in co2 is having the affect climate change folks  are saying it does

I believe man is causing co2 increase but by 141 ppm and Im not sold that this is causing warming to the degree that climate change folks are saying it is

Do you have another explanation for the correlation? 

• 180 ppm: Ice age. Temps 7-15F lower than now.
• 280 ppm: Typical warm period between ice ages, and similar to pre-industrial man. Temps about 2F lower than current, but Earth temp has risen from pre-induatrial levels and is currently continuing to rise.
• 400 ppm (4 million years ago): Temps about 6F higher than observed in the 280 ppm "warm periods". 

Or is your skepticism "well it just certainly can't be 141 ppm CO2 increase, despite what reams of climate science literature since 1950 says"?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 12:03:23 PM

I recall some evidence the CO2 level changes associated with ice ages came after the ice age started, e.g., cold ocean temperatures meant more CO2 was absorbed in the water and the levels dropped.  I may be a bit hazy on this, or perhaps that isn't the best current model.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 20, 2023, 12:06:53 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 09:45:27 AM

There are a lot of things to be skeptical about.

That said, there are some things that are basically well-founded:

• CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
• The Earth's temperature is warming [at least partly] due to the increase from 280->400+ ppm of CO2.
• Man is responsible for [most of if not all of] the increase in CO2 due to burning fossil fuels.
• Ergo, man is responsible for [at least some of] that warming.

This is all basic stuff, and in my mind, has been more than well enough demonstrated as to be beyond skepticism by anyone who actually looks at the evidence.

That said, I think there are three different groups when it comes to climate change: deniers, skeptics, and alarmists:

• Deniers: These are the people who claim CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas, claim it can't be a problem because it's a small amount, claim it's rising due to anything but man, that the Earth isn't actually warming, or anything else that essentially says "it's not happening and it's all a left-wing conspiracy". I personally find this group to have absolutely zero credibility on the issue. Most I find don't know shit about the issue and spew whatever "their tribe" comes up with to deny it. 
• Alarmists: These are the people that claim we're obviously warming the planet due to CO2 and that we absolutely must do everything in our power to stop it. Within this group, there are several contingents. First is the left-wing greenie wacko who just believes that if humans are doing something, and it changes the environment, it MUST be bad. Second is some of the scientists and policy types who think that we should do something to reduce based on the precautionary principle that we're in relatively uncharted territory here and it "could" get really bad based on models/etc. And the third are people who don't know shit about the issue but "their tribe" finds it important, they should be on board. What I often find in this group is that the first and third groups generally know nothing about economics, or actual feasibility of green alternative energy, and overestimate how easily we could transition away from fossil fuels. Group one can be ignored for the same reason I ignore the deniers. Group three is generally ignorant and boring to argue with because they don't know enough. I do think there can be a LOT of constructive dialogue between the skeptics and group two, though. 
• Skeptics: This is the group that accepts that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, that we're burning a shit-ton of it and warming the planet, but isn't quite sure whether that's bad enough to worry about, or if it's bad enough that it's worth spending a shit-ton of money [and creating a huge economic drag in doing so] trying to stop it. This is the group that looks at the question of is "warmer" bad, or might even be beneficial? If it's bad, how warm is "too" warm? What will be the cost in 2100 to mitigate the economic effects/dislocations that might occur due to that warming? What will be the natural transition away from fossil fuels due to new technologies over that time frame, and is it worth trying to force technology before its time to slightly accelerate that transition? How much will it freakin' cost, and is it worth it? Generally this group is the one that says as long as warming isn't going to lead to catastrophe, we as a world society and economy can probably just ride it out and be fine.

As you might imagine, I consider myself in the skeptic group. Global warming is happening, it's real, and we're responsible for it. But the question of if it's actually a "problem" and what we should do--if anything--about it is where there is a lot of room for debate.

Call me what you want, but CO2 is an essential gas in our atmosphere. Without it, plants would not grow and I am pretty sure other bad things would happen making life on Earth impossible.

That said, I also believe that we really don't know the level's of CO2 over the course of our history. All we really know is what it is now and was for the past, maybe, 100 years. Everything else is speculation.

I also believe that the climate is changing, just as it has done since the Earth had a climate. For example, in the place I am currently sitting, 10,000 years ago was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. Why is it 71 deg right now with no ice? The climate changed and did so without mankind driving SUV's. The Earth goes through periodic climate shifts both warming and cooling. Again, it has done this since the Earth had a climate and nothing we do will change that fact. In fact, from the things I have read, the Sun has more impact on the Earths climate that mankind could ever hope to have and is most likely responsible for the climate changes that the Earth goes through.

Now, this does not mean that I am in favor of pumping particles into atmosphere if we can at all prevent it. I believe that we should do what we can, WITHIN REASON, to keep from polluting the Earth and do what we can to clean up already polluted areas. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 12:10:53 PM

The major shifts in climate in the past are due to Malinkovitch cycles related to Earth's orbit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2023, 12:12:29 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 12:00:31 PM

Do you have another explanation for the correlation?

• 180 ppm: Ice age. Temps 7-15F lower than now.
• 280 ppm: Typical warm period between ice ages, and similar to pre-industrial man. Temps about 2F lower than current, but Earth temp has risen from pre-induatrial levels and is currently continuing to rise.
• 400 ppm (4 million years ago): Temps about 6F higher than observed in the 280 ppm "warm periods".

Or is your skepticism "well it just certainly can't be 141 ppm CO2 increase, despite what reams of climate science literature since 1950 says"?

reminds me of

there is more ice cream consumed in the summer
crime is higher in the summer
ice cream must cause crime

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2023, 12:18:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 12:03:23 PM

I recall some evidence the CO2 level changes associated with ice ages came after the ice age started, e.g., cold ocean temperatures meant more CO2 was absorbed in the water and the levels dropped.  I may be a bit hazy on this, or perhaps that isn't the best current model.

All I can see is here: https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

[size=+1]Feedbacks (1990s)     [size=-2]TOP OF PAGE (https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm#L000)[/size][/font][/size]
During the 1990s, further ice core measurements indicated that at the end of the last glacial period, the initial rise of temperature in Antarctica had preceded CO[size=-1]2 changes by several centuries. Scientists debated whether the dates could be measured so precisely, but certainly around Antarctica the temperature rise had not come much after the rise of CO[size=-1]2[/size].(53a*) (https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm#N_53a_) This surprised and confused many people. If changes in CO[size=-1]2[/size] began after changes in temperature, didn’t that contradict the greenhouse theory of global warming? But in fact the discrepancy was not good news.[/font][/size]	<=Climate cycles (http://history.aip.org/climate/cycles.htm#L_0802)
It seemed that rises or falls in carbon dioxide levels had not initiated the glacial cycles. In fact most scientists had long since abandoned that hypothesis. In the 1960s, painstaking studies had shown that subtle shifts in our planet's orbit around the Sun (called "Milankovitch cycles") matched the timing of ice ages with startling precision. The amount of sunlight that fell in a given latitude and season varied predictably over millenia. As some had pointed out ever since the 19th century, in times when sunlight fell more strongly on northern latitudes in the spring, snow and sea ice would not linger so long; the dark earth and seawater would absorb more sunlight, and get warmer. However, calculations showed that this subtle effect should cause no more than a small regional warming. How could almost imperceptible changes in the angle of sunlight cause entire continental ice sheets to build up and melt away?	[size=-1]The full history is in the essay on <= (http://history.aip.org/climate/oceans.htm#L_0347)Climate cycles (http://history.aip.org/climate/cycles.htm)[/font][/size]
The new ice cores suggested that a powerful feedback amplified the changes in sunlight. The crucial fact was that a slight warming would cause the level of greenhouse gases to rise slightly. For one thing, warmer oceans would evaporate out more gas. For another, as the vast Arctic tundras warmed up, the bogs would emit more CO[size=-1]2 (and another greenhouse gas, methane, also measured in the ice with a lag behind temperature). The greenhouse effect of these gases would raise the temperature a little more, which would cause more emission of gases, which would... and so forth, hauling the planet step by step into a warm period. Many thousands of years later, the process would reverse when the sunlight falling in key latitudes weakened. Bogs and oceans would absorb greenhouse gases, ice would build up, and the planet would slide back into an ice age. This finally explained how tiny shifts in the Earth's orbit could set the timing of the enormous swings of glacial cycles.[/font][/size]	=>Climate cycles (http://history.aip.org/climate/cycles.htm#L_0801)
Or, more ominously, how a change in the gas level initiated by humanity might be amplified through a temperature feedback loop. The ancient ice ages were the reverse of our current situation, where humanity was initiating the change by adding greenhouse gases. As the gas level rose, temperature would rise with a time lag — although only a few decades, not centuries, for the rates of change were now enormously faster than the orbital shifts that brought ice ages.

In short, much was driven by the Earth's relative eccentricity in its orbit meaning more or less energy reached the Earth's surface, but not enough of a change to predict ice ages or warm periods. But slight increase in energy from the sun (and slight warming) released CO2 into the atmosphere, causing feedback of more CO2 and methane release, bringing us from an ice age into a warm period. And on the other end, slight reduction in energy from the sun caused the Earth's CO2 reservoirs to start absorbing more CO2, which took more and more of it out of the atmosphere, and feedback looks plunged us from a warm period into another ice age. 

This is one of the concerns we face now. If 420 ppm of CO2 causes significant warming, what happens if the ocean warms and starts releasing its CO2 or bogs in the Siberian tundra start thawing and releasing their CO2 and methane reserves buried in the soil, and we've triggered a CO2 feedback loop that will release MUCH more into the atmosphere? 

When I talk about group two in the "alarmist" camp, these are the things they're worried about. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 20, 2023, 12:29:43 PM

The Superbloom: "California’s historically wet winter has led to an explosion of blooming wildflowers across many of its hills and valleys this spring. Visitors have been traveling to state parks and reserves to take in the views of this latest “superbloom.” Gathered below are recent colorful images from several locations across Southern California."

https://twitter.com/TheAtlantic/status/1646252743051431939

Very much appears like Gustave Caillebotte's painting The Yellow Fields at Gennevilliers - La plaine de Gennevilliers, champs jaunes:

(https://i.imgur.com/aPGMVBZ.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2023, 01:50:55 PM

I'm not sure I'd put all my money on a few ice core samples and the ways to test them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2023, 01:55:27 PM

In 1974 a group of scientists published research suggesting that chemicals used in everyday products like aerosols, packaging and refrigerators could deplete the ozone layer – vastly increasing the incidence of skin cancer, cataracts and other harms to humans and wildlife on earth. In 1985, the ozone depletion theory was clearly proven, when a hole in the ozone layer was discovered over Antarctica.

The discovery of the hole was evidence that the magnitude of the problem was far greater than scientists had originally predicted. International alarm at the ozone layer’s thinning led to unprecedented multilateral action to ban the dangerous chemicals that were responsible for its deterioration – chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). By 1987, just two years after the hole was discovered, an international treaty was in place that cut the use of CFCs in half. Three years later in 1990, the Montreal Protocol was strengthened to ban the use of CFCs altogether in industrialised countries by the year 2000 and by the year 2010 in developing countries.  Today, the use of CFCs is outlawed by 197 countries around the world and scientists concur that the ozone layer is slowly recovering as a result. Overall, the success in addressing the ozone problem can give us hope that global environmental problems can and have been solved by humanity’s timely collective action.


_________________________________________________ _____________________

Makes me wonder about the PPM of chlorofluorocarbons back in the late 70s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 02:02:48 PM

The levels were probably ppb, I'm guessing.  In that case, we did develop viable alternatives, CHFCs et al. that are acceptable and apparently do less damage.  Ozone is condiered a pollutant at low altitudes (troposphere).  And of course the amount of ozone up high is very small as well in  concentration, but has a significant effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 02:05:56 PM

About 90 percent of the ozone in the atmosphere is contained in the stratosphere. Ozone concentrations are greatest between about 20 and 40 kilometres (66,000 and 131,000 ft), where they range from about 2 to 8 parts per million.

When chlorine and bromine atoms come into contact with ozone in the stratosphere, they destroy ozone molecules. One chlorine atom can destroy over 100,000 ozone molecules before it is removed from the stratosphere. Ozone can be destroyed more quickly than it is naturally created.
Some compounds release chlorine or bromine when they are exposed to intense UV light in the stratosphere. These compounds contribute to ozone depletion, and are called ozone-depleting substances (ODS). ODS that release chlorine include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform. ODS that release bromine include halons and methyl bromide. Although ODS are emitted at the Earth’s surface, they are eventually carried into the stratosphere in a process that can take as long as two to five years.
In the 1970s, concerns about the effects of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) on the stratospheric ozone layer prompted several countries, including the United States, to ban the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as aerosol propellants. However, global production of CFCs and other ODS continued to grow rapidly as new uses were found for these chemicals in refrigeration, fire suppression, foam insulation, and other applications.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 03:44:08 PM

Ocasio-Cortez, Markey reintroduce Green New Deal resolution: ‘we need bold big climate action’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3961244-ocasio-cortez-markey-reintroduce-green-new-deal-resolution-we-need-bold-big-climate-action/)

Apparently, it's 14 pages, which means it's again aspirational BS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2023, 03:51:56 PM

I'm not going to read it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2023, 03:55:06 PM

TL; DR

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 04:10:40 PM

It is  termed a resolution, which means squat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2023, 10:22:08 AM

Terrestrial SMR completes Canadian pre-licensing review : New Nuclear - World Nuclear News (world-nuclear-news.org) (https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Terrestrial-SMR-completes-Canadian-pre-licensing-r?fbclid=IwAR0P1g3QnJ0hCQk_Ak52SFYwdntEOFW16OBq9R5Dg8JTGnGAST6I_sELNi4)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 21, 2023, 12:48:25 PM

India and Pakistan are enduring a second straight Spring of brutal heatwaves. If anybody remembers, thousands died last May in Pakistan when temperatures sustained levels dangerous to human life.

This time around the humidity isn't helping, and I'm noticing discussion of the Wet Bulb threshold that when surpassed is fatal. From a Guardian Article last year (http://"https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-wet-bulb-temperature"):

"If you slide a wet cloth over the bulb of a thermometer, the evaporating water from the cloth will cool the thermometer down. This lower temperature is the WBT, which cannot go above the dry temperature. If humidity in the surrounding air is high, however – meaning the air is already more saturated with water – less evaporation will occur, so the WBT will be closer to the dry temperature."

"When do wet-bulb temperatures get dangerous? Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%."

"...the number of times that a WBT of 30C was reached – still considered an extreme humidity and heat event – more than doubled between 1979 and 2017. There were about 1,000 occurrences of a 31C WBT, and about a dozen above 35C, in Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Australia."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2023, 01:03:55 PM

Majority in poll say climate change needs to be addressed ‘right now’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3962835-majority-in-poll-says-climate-change-needs-to-be-addressed-right-now/)

While 91 percent of Democrats said climate change requires urgent attention, 44 percent of Republicans said the same, according to the CBS News poll.

Nearly three-quarters — 74 percent — of Americans between 18 and 44 years old said climate change needs to be addressed either now or in the near future, while 64 percent of those between 45 and 64 years old and 56 percent of those over 65 years old said the same.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2023, 02:51:04 PM

100% could be in agreement that something needs to be addressed

that doesn't mean that anything worthwhile will happen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2023, 08:52:41 AM

Extreme weather is nearly universal experience: AP-NORC poll

https://apnews.com/article/poll-climate-change-extreme-weather-221a56606f54f8dac90c9f654e208af9 (https://apnews.com/article/poll-climate-change-extreme-weather-221a56606f54f8dac90c9f654e208af9)

article says nothing about weather universe wide, not even world wide, only polled people in the united states

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2023, 08:55:50 AM

Overall, about 8 in 10 U.S. adults say that in the past five years they have personally felt the effects of extreme weather, such as extreme heat or drought, according to the poll. Most of them – 54% of the public overall – say what they experienced was at least partly a result of climate change. 

Well, duh.  I imagine nearly everyone did back in 1930 as well.  Yeah, I recall a really bad thunderstorm here, what, 3 years ago?"

Climate and weather are different things.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2023, 09:00:40 AM

I also really hope they are adjusting for inflation with their threshold 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2023, 09:05:18 AM

a damp 32 degrees here this morning with just enough wet snow to cover the ground white

tee times for the first golf tournament of the season pushed back an hour.  Starting at 10am instead of 9.
I just smart enough to request a later time and now tee off at 2:15pm

20mph wind expected
feels like temp of 24 expected at 10am

I'd rather be in Lincoln welcoming back Fearless Frankie Solich and helping break the curse

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2023, 02:23:37 PM

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting rapidly and driving sea level rise, new satellite data finds | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/20/world/greenland-antarctic-ice-sheets-melt-climate-intl/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2023, 08:18:16 AM

Good news.

ExxonMobil unleashing 'much needed' affordable energy with industry’s biggest refinery expansion in 10 years | Fox Business (https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/exxonmobil-unleash-us-oil-capabilities-industrys-biggest-refinery-expansion-ten-years)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2023, 08:26:00 AM

a new oil refinery was proposed about 40 miles from me in SE South Dakota a few years ago 

The locals ran it off.  I don't really blame them, but I would have enjoyed around 20 cents/gallon off in gasoline pricing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2023, 08:27:56 AM

My wife will ask me the temperature outside (it's on my watch, and hers as well, but in °F).  I've become proficient in translating.

It was 49°F here this AM, which is pretty chilly for us.  I know 59°F = 15°C, and the 10°F difference is about 5°C.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 01:49:48 PM

So I've got a question about what people are thinking about climate change and just wanted to poll the folks here...

Note that this question is *ONLY* for people who believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas AND that our emissions are causing warming. Not a place to debate that, but if you don't accept that as face value, my question won't make sense. 

Assumption: As CD points out, we're unlikely to make any meaningful progress to reducing CO2 emissions over the next 10-30 years. Certainly not enough to meet the targets set by the Paris Accord. We'll make some cuts where it's convenient, but generally my question assumes that emissions will be on an upward trend (or flat at the very least), and no meaningful technologies for carbon capture will magically appear. 

Questions:

• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the best case scenario for society as the planet warms. For this (and the following), the question is NOT so much about how much warming will happen--it's about the social, economic, etc effects of that warming.
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the middle of the road scenario. 
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the worst case scenario. 

And then, let me know what, in your best guess, is the most likely of those scenarios. 


I know we have a WIDE variety of experience and viewpoints here, so I want to hear your thoughts. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2023, 02:00:16 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 01:49:48 PM

it's about the social, economic, etc effects of that warming.

Etc. like what?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 02:13:47 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2023, 02:00:16 PM

Etc. like what?

Things like potential economic dislocation from rising sea levels (whether it's limited to low-lying island nations or might affect first-world coastal cities), changes in where arable farmland exists (i.e. crops that are viable in one latitude need to move north/etc), or areas that will be drought-stricken and unable to obtain water and perhaps become non-viable as living spaces (like the desert Southwest). 

Also thinks like geopolitical outcomes, as some nations will undoubtedly be affected more than others, and that could cause issues between nations of various severities depending on how you severe you think best case / middle / worst case might be. 

But not limited to that... Thinking of a thought experiment where you work through what you think could happen, because undoubtedly you're going to come up with things I haven't even considered. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2023, 02:31:49 PM

If we look at Miami as an example, we can see what effects a rising sea level can have.

We already see some flooding at higher tides and wave conditions, which will obviously worsen as the sea rises.

At mean tide, Miami looks like this today:

(https://i.imgur.com/FKo85Mp.jpg)

1 foot rise doesn't do much, but at 2 feet you can start to see the effects. Remember, this does not take tide or waves into consideration.

(https://i.imgur.com/W19C3Ab.png)

At 4 feet, Miami Beach is toast.

(https://i.imgur.com/pKIppuE.jpg)

At 6 feet, we see major issues.

(https://i.imgur.com/rJKmeJX.jpg)

At 10 feet, it's over.

(https://i.imgur.com/UA8D4cx.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2023, 02:36:41 PM

My house is spared at 10 feet, but this does not include tide, wave action or storm surge.

I'd have to move.

In fact, I'll move at the 2 foot mark due to storm surge risks.

My house is at 13 feet above, as of today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 03:07:33 PM

The last time we know the Earth was at >400 ppm CO2, it's believed that sea levels were 15-25m higher than today (https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters). 

Which mean Florida disappears. 

Which may not be a bad thing :57:

At least... May not be a bad thing if Canada and Siberia become warm farmland areas and the disappearance of Florida takes many centuries to happen, slowly, and people can adjust to the change. 

But it may be a hell of a problem if it happens faster than we expect. Over 600M people live in places where they're less than 10m above sea level. 

That's the sort of thing I'm asking about. Not "what will happen to the environment?", but "what will a changing environment do to a bunch of human beings with human governments facing economic dislocation but have access to militaries?"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2023, 03:17:41 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 01:49:48 PM

Questions:

• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the best case scenario for society as the planet warms. For this (and the following), the question is NOT so much about how much warming will happen--it's about the social, economic, etc effects of that warming.
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the middle of the road scenario.
• Please explain what, in your opinion, is the worst case scenario.

well, w/o knowing how much the planet warms it's tough to predict the effects

I really don't think warming of 1 1/2 degrees C is going to cause much effect
I don't think there's been much effect the past 20 years or 100 years
how many years has it been since sea level was 10M less?  200?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2023, 03:34:09 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 03:07:33 PM

Which mean Florida disappears.

Which may not be a bad thing :57:

Lex Luthor says hello. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 03:42:03 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2023, 03:17:41 PM

well, w/o knowing how much the planet warms it's tough to predict the effects

I really don't think warming of 1 1/2 degrees C is going to cause much effect
I don't think there's been much effect the past 20 years or 100 years
how many years has it been since sea level was 10M less?  200?

What I was getting at is that I'm not asking to turn this into a debate about how much warming will happen. That turns into a science debate about various models and none of us are climatologists. 

I'm saying you should bake your opinion on the social/economic/etc effects on how much YOU think it will warm. If you think it won't exceed 1.5C, then build that into your conclusions. If you think best case is 1.5C and worst case is 3C, build that into your conclusions. 

I have my own thoughts that things could go a lot of different directions wrt warming depending on whether we hit any specific negative feedback or positive feedback effects in the climate. When I give my own answers to these questions (which I'm waiting on so as not to bias the answers from others), I'll talk about that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2023, 03:48:37 PM

I think best case is 1.5C and worst case is 3C.

I just think 2 1/2C really won't change the earth that much.
not as much as some predict

I suppose I can do some research and look it up, but I'm guessing the earth is 1C warmer now than it was 200 years ago.
I don't think things have changed too awful much

well, the dust bowl was pretty awful

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2023, 04:18:08 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2023, 03:48:37 PM

I think best case is 1.5C and worst case is 3C.

I just think 2 1/2C really won't change the earth that much.
not as much as some predict

I suppose I can do some research and look it up, but I'm guessing the earth is 1C warmer now than it was 200 years ago.
I don't think things have changed too awful much

well, the dust bowl was pretty awful

So if I paraphrase...

Your position is that the best case scenario isn't all that much different from today, and even the worst case scenario is not going to have serious effects that we really need to worry about from a wider societal perspective? I.e. that it's essentially a nothingburger? 

Note that I'm not trying to argue with you (and don't intend to argue anyone's response; I asked this question to learn what others think). Just asking if my restatement above is reasonably consistent with your thoughts? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2023, 04:55:33 PM

This is why folks now like to attribute extreme weather to climate change.  We've had, according to experts, 1.1°C so far, and it "seems" pretty normal to most.  (Warming near the poles is said to be greater.)  So another degree wouldn't necessarily be so awful.  I can see that line of thinking and partially agree with it.  I think more warming from here gradually starts to make things worse overall (not in every case, but in more than not).

The "good thing" here is there really is no chance, at all, "we" can alter this path, none, zero (beyond MAYBE a tenth or two, MAYBE).  So we'll all find out in 40 years or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2023, 04:58:33 PM

yes sir, your restatement above is reasonably consistent with my thoughts.

CO2 from fossil fuels is causing some small warming, but...... the sky isn't falling

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2023, 10:27:53 PM

Here is a very different viewpoint on co2 and climate change

Im not endorsing nor condemning this guy but presenting it just to show another view


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjlmFr4FMvI

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2023, 10:30:55 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 26, 2023, 10:27:53 PM

Im not endorsing nor condemning this guy but presenting it just to show another view

riiiight

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2023, 10:34:47 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2023, 10:30:55 PM

riiiight

I think its important to know that not every scientist is a co2 alarmist

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2023, 12:50:37 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX1z_6pvM-Q

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 07:58:13 AM

The "amusing" thing to me is how Judith Curry gets demonized as a "denier" (which she absolutely isn't).  Anyone not in lock step with "the message" gets shipped to a gulag, in effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 08:03:41 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 07:58:13 AM

The "amusing" thing to me is how Judith Curry gets demonized as a "denier" (which she absolutely isn't).  Anyone not in lock step with "the message" gets shipped to a gulag, in effect.

That is the social aspect of this thing. It's been happening for years and it's only going to get worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 08:35:08 AM

I don't see many individualists out there who don't "have a team", either lib or con (in short).  If you are either, you pretty much toe the line down the line on every issue.  You won't find many libs saying climate change is not that bad, nor cons saying it is.  The same is true for every other issue, I think.  A few folks have cross views on issues, not many, other than perhaps around here.

The folks I got to know well enough to have some knowledge of their POVs on things in Cincy often had more nuanced views, I think.  But there weren't many.  I'd overhear some convo in my wine group at times and they were mostly hard liberals with a couple exceptions, which was fine with me.  Some of their views expressed to me on guns were ... well, difficult to straighten out with facts, they did not like facts.

At all.  One came to me later wanting to write a letter to our congressman and I tried to help (email) but the letter she sent had none of my "corrections", facts like how most gun crime is committed with pistols.  It's not debatable, it's a fact, she botched it, not lined up with her world view.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 08:45:24 AM

Obviously, I'm a "con" as you put it. By definition, that means I don't like wasteful spending.

As for climate change, I'm aware. I don't know if it's good or bad. I'm guessing when I say this: 1.5 degrees is where I'm at.

Many moons ago I learned that there are some things you just cannot control, and I think this is one of those things.

One other thing I do know is that this "movement" is destroying our country. 

The USA has handcuffed itself with this thing. Same with Europe. 

China laughs as it builds more coal plants at blinding speed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 08:52:58 AM

Some of my coworkers described themselves as fiscally conservative and socially liberal.  That's a bit broad of course, but could describe some folks here who have "mixed views" on issues.  If I could wave a wand and stop anyone from emitting CO2 in generating energy, I would, but I obviously don't think that's possible no matter what (practically speaking).  I think it's not good, but it's going to happen.  We can "throw money at it" and not make a dent anyone can measure.

The Germans just shut down their last three nuclear reactors which were running fine.  California did keep Diablo Canyon on line for a while, and that is much more risky considering its location.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 08:56:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 08:52:58 AM

Some of my coworkers described themselves as fiscally conservative and socially liberal.  That's a bit broad of course, but could describe some folks here who have "mixed views" on issues.  If I could wave a wand and stop anyone from emitting CO2 in generating energy, I would, but I obviously don't think that's possible no matter what (practically speaking).  I think it's not good, but it's going to happen.  We can "throw money at it" and not make a dent anyone can measure.

The Germans just shut down their last three nuclear reactors which were running fine.  California did keep Diablo Canyon on line for a while, and that is much more risky considering its location.

That used to be me, giving money away for good causes, until the wife retired. Fixed income with no COLA. Big pay cut with inflation as it is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 09:05:23 AM

When I retired, I used an investment company for three years, which turned out to have been a very good decision.  I watched what they did and asked a lot of questions and learned a few things (I hope).  One thing they set me up with is a charitable donor fund.  This was useful because I basically had double my salary my last year working so taxes were not going to be fun, and I had some appreciated stock I could donate.  So, I predonated a chunk which mostly is still there and I now donate out of that.  With the ability to deduct donations now basically gone, it's a huge thing for me.  If anyone finds themselves in a situation with a lot of income in a year, consider doing this.

I started taking SS at 66 after running some numbers on it.  That does have a COLA of course, to an extent.  I guess after all the years I paid FICA taxes I don't feel bad about taking it.  If CONGRESS and a PRESIDENT had any guts, they'd have made changes long ago to ensure the fund doesn't run dry in 2033 or whenever.

Anyway, we're now throwing money at the climate thing and the result will be so tiny no one could possibly measure it.  Nobody even asks the question "How much will this $37 billion a year cut CO2 emissions?".  I guess some know the answer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 09:15:37 AM

My wife will take it at 62. 

<4 months from now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 09:50:49 AM

In short, I think we will see a 1 foot sea level rise by 2050 with no economic impact. 

Social impacts are already being felt, as stated earlier.

By 2100, I can see 3 feet. 

Economic impacts will vary by city/state/country. 

In this country, codes and regulations will have the greatest impact, as any new construction will have to be at or above 10 feet (current code). Most of Miami would be unbuildable, for example. Same goes for Boston.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 09:54:16 AM

2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report (noaa.gov) (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html#:~:text=About 2 feet (0.6 meters,the end of this century.)

 About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 - 5 feet (0.5 - 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 - 7 feet (1.1 - 2.1 meters) by the end of this century.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 09:56:34 AM

There is a drastic scenario, considered by most to be unlikely, where the tundra "melts" and releases a hoard of CO2 and things spiral out of control.  The Greenland ice sheet substantially melts away, same with Antarctic to some extent.  All that would get pretty bad.

And, there isn't anything we can do about it today.  It's too late.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 09:57:15 AM

perhaps New Orleans will be moved above sea level after all

nah, build taller dikes!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 09:58:11 AM

My understanding is that NO used to flood routinely and deposited sand etc. to keep it above sea level.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 10:05:29 AM

Terrifying Sea-Level Prediction for 2100 Now Seems Unlikely - The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/sea-level-rise-may-not-become-catastrophic-until-after-2100/579478/)

If every country meets its current commitment under the Paris Agreement, the Earth will warm about 2.7 degrees Celsius (https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/climate-pledges-will-bring-27c-of-warming-potential-for-more-action/) by the end of the century compared with its pre-industrial average. In their new research, DeConto and his colleagues say that there’s a tipping point, somewhere between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius of temperature rise, after which the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will slip into rapid and shattering collapse.
Read:  (https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/1857/11/sea-level-rise-may-not-become-catastrophic-until-after-2100/579478/?preview=XGT1UJrhDVSXysV8BkVxCF28bhA)A radical new scheme to prevent catastrophic sea-level rise (https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/01/a-new-geo-engineering-proposal-to-stop-sea-level-rise/550214/)
Their new research also raises the marginal risk of disaster. Officially, the Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, though many experts consider that goal fanciful (https://www.votwitter.com/2014/4/22/5551004/two-degrees). And even in that extremely optimistic scenario, West Antarctica still switches into unavoidable collapse about 10 percent of the time, according to the new research.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 10:06:42 AM

CO2 levels are going to continue rising for decades, barring something entirely unexpected.  With a LOT of money, the rise could be slightly less than otherwise (assuming China and India "buy" in).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 11:15:35 AM

New Orleans would definitely be screwed with a 3 foot rise. Look at the area around Mobile 

too.


(https://i.imgur.com/ILzHmXt.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 11:28:28 AM

so, if & when this happens....... it displaces people, but is that such a big deal???

yes, it's expensive, but so is 37 trillion a year to combat climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 11:30:48 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 11:28:28 AM

so, if & when this happens....... it displaces people, but is that such a big deal???

yes, it's expensive, but so is 37 trillion a year to combat climate change

This is kinda where I'm at.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 11:34:57 AM

Th US legislation allocated $370 BILLION over ten years, which realistically is a drop in that particular bucket, but it may make some folks feel better about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2023, 11:39:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 11:34:57 AM

Th US legislation allocated $370 BILLION over ten years, which realistically is a drop in that particular bucket, but it may make some folks feel better about it.

I suspect that environmentally-focused businesses with CEOs who are friends of politicians will make out nicely, and nothing much else will change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 11:41:30 AM

Sure, there was money for EV tax credits of course, and chargers galore, and tax breaks for wind and solar.  Buried in it also was a part allowing the EPA to regulate CO2 emissions, something which could hurt folks in a few years.

And yes, the "connected" will come out nicely ahead with favored contracts, only Unon workers, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2023, 11:41:55 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 11:28:28 AM

so, if & when this happens....... it displaces people, but is that such a big deal???

yes, it's expensive, but so is 37 trillion a year to combat climate change

Largely depends how gradually it happens. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2023, 11:45:18 AM

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/05/ice-sheets-collapse-far-faster-than-feared-study-climate-crisis

Quote

“Our research provides a warning from the past about the speeds that ice sheets are physically capable of retreating at,” said Dr Christine Batchelor at Newcastle University in the UK, who led the research. “It shows that pulses of rapid retreat can be far quicker than anything we’ve seen so far.”

“These pulses translate into sea level rise and could be really important for sea defences,” she said. The rate of loss was critical if, for example, a rise expected over 200 years could actually occur in 20 years, Batchelor said. The research could also be used to enable computer models to make better predictions about future ice loss.

Most previous estimates of the rate of ice sheet collapse have come from satellite data, which has been collected for about 50 years. The geological data used in the study stretches back thousands of years, allowing a much greater range of conditions to be analysed.

The research, published in the journal Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05876-1), used high-resolution mapping of the sea bed off Norway, where large ice sheets collapsed into the sea at the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. The scientists focused on sets of small ridges parallel to the coast, which formed at the line where the base of the ice sheet met the oceans, called the grounding line.

As the tides lifted the ice sheets up and down, sediments at the grounding line were squashed into ridges twice a day. As the base of the ice sheet melted over days and weeks, the grounding line retreated towards the shore, leaving behind sets of parallel ridges. Measuring the distance between the ridges enabled the scientists to calculate the speed of the Norwegian ice sheet collapse.


They found speeds of between 50 metres a day and 600 metres a day. That is up to 20 times faster than the speediest retreat recorded previously by satellites, of 30 metres a day at the Pope Glacier (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0082-z) in West Antarctica. Ridges had been studied before, in Antarctica (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz3059), but only over an area of 10 sq km. The new study covered an area of 30,000 sq km, and 7,600 ridges, allowing the scientists to understand what is likely to control the rates of retreat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2023, 11:48:04 AM

I'm looking forward to my ocean front property in Austin, Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2023, 11:55:22 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2023, 11:48:04 AM

I'm looking forward to my ocean front property in Austin, Texas.

Gonna be hard to stem the flow of people moving to Austin, tho. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 11:59:39 AM

warnings from the past weren't events caused by manmade CO2
Probably not 1.5C differences

sea level changes seem to be gradual enough that folks won't be drowning like a Tsunami 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2023, 12:08:09 PM

After the 1900 storm which killed over 5,000 people the city of Galveston raised its above sea level between 8 and 28 feet for about 500 square blocks and also built a seawall

Many folks dont realize that when they look at an old Galveston building the 1st floor was really the 2nd floor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 12:12:30 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2023, 12:08:09 PM

After the 1900 storm which killed over 5,000 people the city of Galveston raised its above sea level between 8 and 28 feet for about 500 square blocks and also built a seawall

Many folks dont realize that when they look at an old Galveston building the 1st floor was really the 2nd floor.

Sounds like Seattle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2023, 12:20:56 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 11:59:39 AM

warnings from the past weren't events caused by manmade CO2
Probably not 1.5C differences

sea level changes seem to be gradual enough that folks won't be drowning like a Tsunami

Agreed that past events weren't caused by manmade emissions of CO2. Obviously. 

Past temperature swings were FAR beyond 1.5C tho. During ice ages global temps were colder by much more than 1.5C. During the Pliocene Epoch (~4M years ago, the last time CO2 was at/above 400 ppm) it's believed global temps were far more than 1.5C higher than today, and sea levels were 15-25m higher than today. 

And a lot of things seem gradual, until they don't. 

Hence my thought that we need to be thinking of best case scenarios and also considering worst case scenarios. If it's inevitable that the West Antarctic ice sheet will collapse, but it takes the 200+ years that we currently think it'll take, I'm not worried. If we're wrong and it happens over the course of 20 years, we're talking about massive dislocations of people that will disrupt much of our way of life to absorb. 

I.e. Badge's great-great-great-grandkids not being able to live in Florida because it no longer exists might be sad. But if Badge's house is underwater in the next 20 years, and it's a 100% economic loss to Badge and his wife because he can't sell an asset that's literally, not economically, underwater? I think he'd consider that a catastrophe. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2023, 12:23:28 PM

Meh. The house will be paid for soon. 

I consider it a sunk cost.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 12:29:12 PM

20 years would REALLY surprise me and 95% of the "experts"

only the fringe looney 4.5% of "experts" crying the sky is falling wouldn't be shocked

100 years would surprise me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 12:29:24 PM

Sea level changes of a foot or two over 80 years sounds pretty gradual to me.  I appreciate one can add this to typical storm surge and high tides of course.  The dramatic folks in Hollywood feature these ridiculous movies that are completely off the beam of course.

For me, the deeper reality is simply that we cannot practically stop this increase IF the models are roughly correct.  We might reduce 24 inches to 22 inches with a lot of money spent on green whatever.  Yay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2023, 01:10:59 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2023, 12:29:12 PM

20 years would REALLY surprise me and 95% of the "experts"

only the fringe looney 4.5% of "experts" crying the sky is falling wouldn't be shocked

100 years would surprise me

Agreed. 20 years would be absolutely shocking. 100 years is faster than current predictions and would surprise me less, but only because I expect us to keep emitting CO2 and not achieve our targets, the Earth to warm more to levels above the Paris targets, so the idea of acceleration beyond current rates makes sense. 

That said, the reason we refer to black swan events that nobody is predicting as black swans is because they're rare--but also because they exist and happen. 

"That's really unlikely to happen" is something that our brain filters into "there's NO WAY that could even happen."

And we all recall what a "NO WAY" prediction means, right? :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2023, 04:16:10 PM

I personally view the range of probable outcomes as a Gaussian distribution.  There's the center, and the midranges, and the tails.

The tails are unlikely but still possible. It's just math.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 05:21:28 PM

That sounds normal…

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2023, 05:57:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 05:21:28 PM

That sounds normal…

This seems like a deviation from the topic. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2023, 06:08:44 PM

Probably 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 28, 2023, 09:16:37 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/XFYkIrj.png)


So... this looks like fun. Austin doesn't make it into the "enhanced" category very often, and even the "slight" category usually means some serious thunderstorms are on their way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2023, 02:29:46 PM

Coming our way now.

(https://i.imgur.com/AAva1s3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 29, 2023, 02:52:16 PM

pretty big system

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 30, 2023, 08:28:37 AM

Light damage, lost power for 3 hours. Generator came on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2023, 08:30:54 AM

We've gotten drizzle, about to clear apparently.  It rains a lot here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 01, 2023, 09:38:11 AM

Rough water all weekend, and a lot of rain/storms. No boating. 

After a really crappy weekend, it's a beautiful day here. 

High of 85, no wind.

Of course, it's a workday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 01, 2023, 09:54:10 AM

50mph gusts here yesterday - too windy for golf

I'll be playing in Omaha this afternoon.  Taking a couple customers out so, it's work!

62 degrees and breezy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2023, 09:55:59 AM

56°F and sunny, was 47°F when I got up, chilly for these parts.  I'm headed over to run a bit in the park.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 02, 2023, 12:12:45 AM

What was the worst weather incident in recorded history? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2023, 01:38:13 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 02, 2023, 12:12:45 AM

What was the worst weather incident in recorded history?

in the US the 1900 storm that hit Galveston killed over 5,000 people

thats got to rank in the top ten

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 05:40:17 AM

That's the one that comes to my mind too.

If we count earthquakes there have been some really bad ones.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 05:45:48 AM

The Deadliest Natural Disasters in U.S. History (https://www.history.com/news/deadliest-natural-disasters-us-storm-flood-hurricane-fire)

Interesting how many of these are from way back.  With the population growth in affected areas I'd have thought something worse would be more recent.  Obviously we're better prepared and warned now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 05:54:43 AM

Interesting.

This one is man-made though:

3. The Johnstown Flood

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 05:58:47 AM

Yeah, that appears to be manmade.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 06:26:21 AM

If the New Madrid fault were to act up again, it could cause more damage than we've ever seen, and more lives lost than ever reported. 

It would change the country, for sure. Who knows where the big rivers would end up? Most certainly not in their current paths.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 06:44:11 AM

Yellowstone might be the one with the most damage potential.  San Andreas could hit highly populated areas badly (again).

I think we could "weather" even a massive hurricane in terms of loss of life.

I was told all the infield dirt from the five baseball fields in North Port was washed out, they had to truck dirt back in to fill the holes.  I gather the grassed areas held up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 07:07:00 AM

I think that was riverine flooding up there. If so, the grass is fine in that. Saltwater flooding means dead grass.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 07:10:17 AM

Yup. it was.  The grass was in excellent shape in January.  (So were the infields, but they told us they were close to canceling.)

They were still working on sections we didn't use.  The club house areas must have been flooded also along with the dormitory.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 07:39:23 AM

Where exactly is this place?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2023, 07:45:59 AM

I'd throw in the dust bowl 

Ask a sooner 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 07:58:02 AM

FAQ | Spring Training | Atlanta Braves (mlb.com) (https://www.mlb.com/braves/braves-spring-training/faqs)

(https://i.imgur.com/gKGzpah.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 08:04:24 AM

After $10 million in damage, Braves spring training complex back after hurricane (ajc.com) (https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/10-million-in-damage-later-braves-spring-training-complex-back-after-hurricane/PMZLAHO355CI7N5BNKG7HMQYRM/)

Dunn explains that, after the hurricane, the infield dirt and outfield grass were not on even ground. The infield was a step down because the wind had sucked up a few inches of the clay and swept it somewhere. This happened on all seven major-league fields here.
“It acted like a typhoon and it just sucked up the clay and took it – we don’t know where,” Dunn said.
Describing what the infield looked like without the clay on top, Dunn said: “It was white. It was more sand, whatever was left.”
The Braves ordered over 150 tons of clay at a cost of over $1 million.
After the hurricane, no one had any clue where the wind blew the clay.
“The only place we had a pile of clay was in right field here (in the main stadium),” Dunn said. “All the other clay on all the fields, we’ve never found it. It’s in somebody’s yard.”

In the days and weeks that followed the storm, CoolToday Park’s parking lots served as staging areas for Florida Power & Light (FPL) employees and the rescue and recovery crews contracted to help. Every part of the parking lot was covered. There were cars, trucks, pop-up kitchens, laundry services and more. At that time, 620 FPL employees slept onsite for three and a half weeks.

“They brought in tractor-trailers that were bunkhouses – male, female, male, female – and they slept 24 to a camper,” Dunn said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2023, 08:09:22 AM

And people keep moving there because they don't like snow 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 08:42:02 AM

Yup, and lower taxes and costs of living, golf nearly year round, etc.  The occasional hurricane is a downside, every place has them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2023, 10:21:44 AM

no hurricanes in south dakota

no state income tax
low taxes overall
plenty of clean air and water
very low cost of living

but, brutal winters

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2023, 10:30:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 02, 2023, 10:21:44 AM

no hurricanes in south dakota

no state income tax
low taxes overall
plenty of clean air and water
very low cost of living

but, brutal winters

yes but in the summer you can go find T-Rex

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 11:19:52 AM

At least with hurricanes we get ample warning to prepare. 

Tornados are just scary and can happen anywhere at any time.

Earthquakes too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2023, 11:54:09 AM

preparation is leaving for hurricanes
maybe nothing to come back for

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2023, 12:09:46 PM

as a kid our family only ran from 1 hurricane

Carla 1961'

We had water door knob high in our house

2 weeks later we were allowed back into our neighborhood

took us 3 weeks to clean up but we did manage to restore things back to normal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 12:17:39 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 02, 2023, 11:54:09 AM

preparation is leaving for hurricanes
maybe nothing to come back for

We did not leave for Ian.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2023, 12:20:14 PM

Where I live is far enough from the San Andreas that even a large quake wouldn't cause a major problem (for my house structurally that is--obviously it could seriously impact a lot of utilities/public services). And there are no significant known faults nearby that would cause more than a little shake if one of them lets off a little energy. 

I'm also not rich enough to live near hills or trees, so wildfires and mudslides aren't a problem for me. 

And I'm 5-6 miles inland at almost 700 feet elevation, with foothills directly between me and the ocean, so nothing the Pacific could do (tsunami, sea level rise, etc) will get me. 

Tornadoes here are EXCEEDINGLY rare (but apparently we just had one this season), as are thunderstorms, and snow will almost never drop below about 2000-2500 feet elevation. 

So I have very little to worry about.

And I'll argue with just about anyone that Southern California has the best weather, year-round, of anywhere in the US. 

Which is probably why cost of living is so massive, and traffic sucks, and so many people are willing to live here DESPITE what Sacramento does to us. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2023, 02:33:57 PM

The US has 90% of the world's tornados.  I've seen one in Hawaii off shore, a water spout I guess, it was white.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2023, 02:41:35 PM

I've seen waterspouts on Lake Michigan. I know we've had some around here recently.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2023, 05:01:35 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/b1KAenP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2023, 07:18:15 AM

What are El Niño and La Niña, and how do they change the weather? - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2023, 05:04:59 PM

just another co2 viewpoint from a scientist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-9UlF8hkhs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 05, 2023, 01:07:35 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2023, 12:20:14 PM

Where I live is far enough from the San Andreas that even a large quake wouldn't cause a major problem (for my house structurally that is--obviously it could seriously impact a lot of utilities/public services). And there are no significant known faults nearby that would cause more than a little shake if one of them lets off a little energy.

I'm also not rich enough to live near hills or trees, so wildfires and mudslides aren't a problem for me.

And I'm 5-6 miles inland at almost 700 feet elevation, with foothills directly between me and the ocean, so nothing the Pacific could do (tsunami, sea level rise, etc) will get me.

Tornadoes here are EXCEEDINGLY rare (but apparently we just had one this season), as are thunderstorms, and snow will almost never drop below about 2000-2500 feet elevation.

So I have very little to worry about.

And I'll argue with just about anyone that Southern California has the best weather, year-round, of anywhere in the US.

Which is probably why cost of living is so massive, and traffic sucks, and so many people are willing to live here DESPITE what Sacramento does to us.

When I drill wells we often find shell and ocean fragments down hundreds of feet.  Probably not an issue in your lifespan though.

What's trippy is drilling through an old tree.  Not just a branch, like when you hit the main trunk.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2023, 09:12:40 AM

Buffett and Greg Abel, vice chairman for non-insurance operations at Berkshire Hathaway, discuss clean energy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/buffett-on-clean-energy-push-this-country-should-be-ahead-of-where-it-is/vi-AA1aPy9u?ocid=entnewsntp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/buffett-on-clean-energy-push-this-country-should-be-ahead-of-where-it-is/vi-AA1aPy9u?ocid=entnewsntp)


Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger preside over the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. Buffet and Munger discuss global warming and more.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warren-buffett-we-d-put-up-berkshire-s-energy-record-up-against-any-utility-in-the-united-states/vi-AA1aPOTB?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1cd4aa788644422199a6e60b8c590036&ei=56 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warren-buffett-we-d-put-up-berkshire-s-energy-record-up-against-any-utility-in-the-united-states/vi-AA1aPOTB?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1cd4aa788644422199a6e60b8c590036&ei=56)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 09, 2023, 08:49:44 AM

Power Reactor Information System (PRIS)

The Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), developed and maintained by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for over five decades, is a comprehensive database focusing on nuclear power plants worldwide. PRIS contains information on power reactors in operation, under construction, or being decommissioned.

https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/ (https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2023, 11:09:58 AM

Microsoft agrees to buy power from Sam Altman-backed Helion in 2028 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/microsoft-agrees-to-buy-power-from-sam-altman-backed-helion-in-2028.html)

Is this real in the sense it could happen?  Color me dubious.  Love it to happen though.

Broadly speaking, Helion’s approach (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/visiting-helion-energy-when-the-seattle-region-was-cloaked-in-smoke.html) involves shooting plasma (the fourth state of matter after solid, liquid and gas) from both ends of the device at a velocity greater than one million miles per hour. The two streams smash into each other, creating a superhot dense plasma, where fusion occurs.
Helion is currently building its seventh-generation fusion machine, named Polaris, which it aims to produce electricity with by next year, Kirtley told CNBC.
“We’re not here to build systems in a lab. We’re here to sell electricity. This is always been the dream,” Altman told CNBC.
So far, Helion has been able to generate energy with its fusion prototypes, but it has not yet built a device that creates more electricity than it uses to run the fusion device. So the firm has a lot of work ahead.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2023, 12:53:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 10, 2023, 11:09:58 AM

Microsoft agrees to buy power from Sam Altman-backed Helion in 2028 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/microsoft-agrees-to-buy-power-from-sam-altman-backed-helion-in-2028.html)

Is this real in the sense it could happen?  Color me dubious.  Love it to happen though.

Broadly speaking, Helion’s approach (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/visiting-helion-energy-when-the-seattle-region-was-cloaked-in-smoke.html) involves shooting plasma (the fourth state of matter after solid, liquid and gas) from both ends of the device at a velocity greater than one million miles per hour. The two streams smash into each other, creating a superhot dense plasma, where fusion occurs.
Helion is currently building its seventh-generation fusion machine, named Polaris, which it aims to produce electricity with by next year, Kirtley told CNBC.
“We’re not here to build systems in a lab. We’re here to sell electricity. This is always been the dream,” Altman told CNBC.
So far, Helion has been able to generate energy with its fusion prototypes, but it has not yet built a device that creates more electricity than it uses to run the fusion device. So the firm has a lot of work ahead.

Yeah, as I've mentioned before I've seen a lot of technologies that are demonstrated in a lab but can't scale. In my own industry I heard tape was dead 30 years ago (it's still going strong), that HDD was dead 10 years ago (line of sight shows no signs of its demise), and now I'm constantly hearing about all the technologies being demonstrated in the lab that will kill NAND flash--but none have made it out of the lab. 

It's what worries me about that Salton Sea / lithium post I made upthread. It might be real, or it might be something that's only feasible "in the lab" and can't scale. 

However, I certainly don't want to dissuade people from continuing to try to make this stuff work. Most will fail, but if any of them succeed, it makes the world a better place. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2023, 12:56:34 PM

I worked for over a decade on one such technology.  It finally did go commercial on a scale less than what was envisioned.  A major problem we had was have priorities shifted by upper management way too often.  It had some massive problems, most of which were somewhat solved, but what happened really was the criteria for success were just reduced to a point it could be made at some scale.  I am pretty sure the stuff they made wasn't very close to the actual performance specs for the material.

They would not let me check.  Ha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2023, 02:32:33 PM

still hoping for a breakthrough

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2023, 01:02:47 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2023, 12:53:23 PM

Yeah, as I've mentioned before I've seen a lot of technologies that are demonstrated in a lab but can't scale. In my own industry I heard tape was dead 30 years ago (it's still going strong), that HDD was dead 10 years ago (line of sight shows no signs of its demise), and now I'm constantly hearing about all the technologies being demonstrated in the lab that will kill NAND flash--but none have made it out of the lab.

It's what worries me about that Salton Sea / lithium post I made upthread. It might be real, or it might be something that's only feasible "in the lab" and can't scale.

However, I certainly don't want to dissuade people from continuing to try to make this stuff work. Most will fail, but if any of them succeed, it makes the world a better place.

Did I ever tell you that my first job at my current employer was managing our tape product lines?  People didn't believe me then, and don't believe me now, when I tell them that tape still not only exists but thrives.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2023, 02:32:49 PM

Carbon dioxide from coal and gas power plants would be reduced under new rules : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/05/11/1169967646/an-epa-proposal-to-almost-eliminate-climate-pollution-from-power-plants)

Seems impracticable to me ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2023, 03:33:11 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2023, 02:32:49 PM

Carbon dioxide from coal and gas power plants would be reduced under new rules : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/05/11/1169967646/an-epa-proposal-to-almost-eliminate-climate-pollution-from-power-plants)

Seems impracticable to me ...

Also, in all that word salad, no mention is made of what it will do to electricity costs. 

The closest they came is saying the carbon capture technologies have been too expensive in the past but are now more affordable. How much more?? B/C it's going to be us consumers paying for it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2023, 03:34:36 PM

I suspect it's for show, knowing it'll be in the courts, and probably modified in time anyway.  It's silly, political pandering.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2023, 03:57:22 PM

Ocean temperatures are off the charts right now, and scientists are alarmed | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/world/ocean-surface-temperature-heat-record-climate-intl/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2023, 04:16:49 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2023, 03:57:22 PM

Ocean temperatures are off the charts right now, and scientists are alarmed | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/world/ocean-surface-temperature-heat-record-climate-intl/index.html)

If only it wasnt a CNN story I might by alarmed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2023, 04:36:36 PM

I'm sure one can find the same story elsewhere if one thinks this one is somehow flawed or fabricated.  Of course, it's easier to dismiss a report one might not like or want to believe by impugning the source without reading the articles... I mean, these are probably all "liberal" rags of no account making up data from nothing ...

Scientists Are Alarmed as Sea Surface Temperatures Hit Uncharted Territory : ScienceAlert (https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-are-alarmed-as-sea-surface-temperatures-hit-uncharted-territory)

Recent, rapid ocean warming ahead of El Niño alarms scientists - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65339934)

Scientists sound alarm as ocean temperatures hit new record (phys.org) (https://phys.org/news/2023-01-scientists-alarm-ocean-temperatures.html)

Why are our oceans getting warmer? (nationalgeographic.com) (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/critical-issues-sea-temperature-rise)

Ocean-surface temperatures are breaking records | The Economist (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/05/05/ocean-surface-temperatures-are-breaking-records)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2023, 05:04:30 PM

Thats much better

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2023, 05:14:05 PM

The Eastern Pacific ocean is cooling not warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2023, 05:22:05 PM

'Alarming' Study Claiming Global Warming Heating Up Oceans Based on Math Error (freebeacon.com) (https://freebeacon.com/issues/alarming-study-claiming-global-warming-heating-oceans-based-math-error/)

This is from 2018.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2023, 07:13:40 PM

I'm not alarmed, but I live in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2023, 07:20:09 PM

THIS DAY IN HISTORY:

Dust Bowl: Dust Storm Hits Great Plains (1934)
In the 1930s, severe drought conditions in the Great Plains region of the US and decades of farming without crop rotation led to a series of devastating dust storms. The storms, called "dusters" or "black blizzards," caused widespread ecological and agricultural damage. In May 1934, one of the worst storms to hit the Dust Bowl blew massive amounts of Great Plains topsoil all the way to the East Coast

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 12, 2023, 11:36:24 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2023, 01:02:47 PM

Did I ever tell you that my first job at my current employer was managing our tape product lines?  People didn't believe me then, and don't believe me now, when I tell them that tape still not only exists but thrives.

What do you  mean by tape?  I mean we had data tapes in the 70's/80's, but I really don't recall much being on tape past the 90's.  

As a proud member square in Gen X I have very fond memories of the 8-bit computing era, I would love to  know more.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2023, 12:09:25 PM

Quote from: Gigem on May 12, 2023, 11:36:24 AM

What do you  mean by tape?  I mean we had data tapes in the 70's/80's, but I really don't recall much being on tape past the 90's. 

As a proud member square in Gen X I have very fond memories of the 8-bit computing era, I would love to  know more. 

Tape mass storage for computers.  They're not reel to reel anymore like the old UNIVAC or ENIAC computers of the 50s, instead they're now on something more like a video tape cassette.

Tape is typically used for long-term archiving purposes, lots of government and financial institutions still use it.

https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/povw/powervault-lto

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2023, 01:13:45 PM

Quote from: Gigem on May 12, 2023, 11:36:24 AM

What do you  mean by tape?  I mean we had data tapes in the 70's/80's, but I really don't recall much being on tape past the 90's. 

As a proud member square in Gen X I have very fond memories of the 8-bit computing era, I would love to  know more. 

Yep, as @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) states tape is a mass archival storage technology that is still quite a large market. 

It's not like the days of my Commodore 64 when I was 5 years old that had a cassette tape storage devices. These are massive libraries:


(https://i.imgur.com/BQ9wBfa.png)

Tape has an advantage over HDD or flash because when it's not being accessed, it consumes zero power, and they're significantly less expensive on a $/TB basis. It's also cheaper from a system perspective because you basically have only a few tape "drives" that can read the data, whereas other storage interfaces you need an individual interface for each storage device that is attached.

Of course, tape has a disadvantage of latency of minutes to hours (or potentially days depending on priority and other data needing to be accessed) to get your data... As opposed to milliseconds to seconds. Which is why it's primarily used for archive, backup, etc that you can accept a long latency for access. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2023, 01:56:22 PM

I had not thought about tape drives for archives, it makes sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 12, 2023, 01:59:39 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2023, 01:13:45 PM

Yep, as @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) states tape is a mass archival storage technology that is still quite a large market.

It's not like the days of my Commodore 64 when I was 5 years old that had a cassette tape storage devices. These are massive libraries:


(https://i.imgur.com/BQ9wBfa.png)

Tape has an advantage over HDD or flash because when it's not being accessed, it consumes zero power, and they're significantly less expensive on a $/TB basis. It's also cheaper from a system perspective because you basically have only a few tape "drives" that can read the data, whereas other storage interfaces you need an individual interface for each storage device that is attached.

Of course, tape has a disadvantage of latency of minutes to hours (or potentially days depending on priority and other data needing to be accessed) to get your data... As opposed to milliseconds to seconds. Which is why it's primarily used for archive, backup, etc that you can accept a long latency for access.

Ah, the old C=64.  I had one in the 4th grade, about 1986.  I never had the dasette, but I did have the 1541 Disk Drive with the 5-1/4" floppy disks.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 12, 2023, 02:01:52 PM

I thought this was a scene from "Rogue One" at first.  

(https://i.imgur.com/ba36Pah.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2023, 02:04:25 PM

I've used paper tape storage for real in the past, and of course the old 029 IBM card punch machines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 12, 2023, 02:23:57 PM

do tapes cause global warming

why discuss here

oh wait nobody cares

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2023, 03:54:17 PM

As @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) mentioned, tape uses less energy than spinning drives or flash, so one could say it is more environmentally friendly.

Of course, there are no systems in the world that are tape-only.  It's used as backup/archive for data that previously existed on HDD or SSD.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2023, 03:57:09 PM

I never had a C64, but I had this killer Atari 400 with tape cassette mass storage.

(https://i.imgur.com/CaaPxeV.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2023, 04:17:45 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 12, 2023, 02:23:57 PM

do tapes cause global warming

why discuss here

oh wait nobody cares

Actually, you'd be amazed at how much the people in massive datacenter and cloud computing companies care. 

I can't really get into specifics, but I can say that the biggest datacenter customers in the world are not just "blowing smoke" as it were about sustainability.

One in particular has made a public target to be carbon-negative by 2030 by using carbon capture technologies in excess of their own emissions, and via carbon capture to take all the carbon they've caused to be emitted since their founding in 1975 out of the atmosphere:

https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2020/01/16/microsoft-will-be-carbon-negative-by-2030/

So to an extent, tape IS one of the strategies the world uses and will continue to use to store data with less environmental impact than certain other technologies. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2023, 04:21:31 PM

Yup, that was my old team's motto:

"Save the world, with Tape!"

We even made up t-shirts that said it.



(this may or may not be true)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on May 12, 2023, 04:31:55 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2023, 07:20:09 PM

THIS DAY IN HISTORY:

Dust Bowl: Dust Storm Hits Great Plains (1934)
In the 1930s, severe drought conditions in the Great Plains region of the US and decades of farming without crop rotation led to a series of devastating dust storms. The storms, called "dusters" or "black blizzards," caused widespread ecological and agricultural damage. In May 1934, one of the worst storms to hit the Dust Bowl blew massive amounts of Great Plains topsoil all the way to the East Coast

That was some sad sorry times and with locusts eating up parts of the west no roots to hold down the soil. One could see the biblical connotations

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2023, 08:41:22 PM

I blame Biden

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2023, 11:14:13 PM

Tornado siren went off a couple hours ago

I had pulled the truck out of the garage to rinse the dust off...

I called the dog inside and pulled the truck into the garage.

no actual tornado, just a warning from weather service from rotation detected on radar.

there was a tornado spotted in Nebraska - a wedge tornado

first time I remember hearing that term....

Wedge Tornado. "Wedge" is informal storm observers' slang for a tornado which looks wider than the distance from ground to ambient cloud base.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 13, 2023, 12:47:07 AM

all Hell happening in Texas right now

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2023, 06:37:37 AM

Biden administration’s power plant rules underscore reality of EPA limits (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/biden-administrations-power-plant-rules-underscore-reality-epa-limits-rcna84201)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2023, 03:26:31 PM

CLINTEL’s critical evaluation of the IPCC AR6 | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/05/13/clintels-critical-evaluation-of-the-ipcc-ar6/#more-30093)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2023, 07:38:03 AM

A New Way to Achieve Nuclear Fusion: Helion (ganjing.com) (https://www.ganjing.com/video/1fo97jnhv0t6ITKRmDRmDyXDj19v1c?mtm_source=NTDdigital&mtm_medium=GoogleAds&mtm_campaign=PaidAds-Apr2023&mtm_kwd=x&mtm_content=PMax_US_Arts_Traffic&mtm_cid=19960744484&mtm_group=Arts&mtm_placement=Arts&gclid=CjwKCAjwgqejBhBAEiwAuWHioEChgQ8yP-x9mH_lY3ida5FUZjahUAMfhogeaKKIAyvPgqEBvlwq-xoCRbUQAvD_BwE)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2023, 08:16:40 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/4hNLx9b.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2023, 08:37:16 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/3e5TQgk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2023, 09:40:39 AM

What El Niño means for the 2023 hurricane season | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4006523-what-el-nino-means-for-the-2023-hurricane-season/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2023, 09:54:31 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/ZP28H40.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2023, 09:38:27 AM

Interesting reading.

https://climate.cmail20.com/t/d-e-vljhuhk-iiirtykrjj-r/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2023, 09:52:00 AM

2.3%

The annual rate at which U.S. grid infrastructure needs to expand to maximize the potential of the new clean-energy tax breaks, according to researchers at Princeton (https://climate.createsend1.com/t/d-l-vljhuhk-iiirtykrjj-g/). They concluded that if expansion continues at the current rate of around 1% a year, 80% of the emissions-reduction potential of those incentives will be lost, and carbon-dioxide emissions will be 800 million tons a year higher in 2030. The approval of transmission infrastructure will make or break America’s energy transition.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2023, 10:06:22 AM

Warren Buffet warned of this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2023, 01:30:45 PM

Nuclear waste powered battery lasts thousands of years

https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/nuclear-waste-powered-battery-lasts-thousands-of-years (https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/nuclear-waste-powered-battery-lasts-thousands-of-years)

Radioactive diamond batteries were first developed in 2016 and were immediately acclaimed because they promised a new, cost-effective way of recycling nuclear waste. In this context, it’s unavoidable to deliberate whether they’re the ultimate solution to these toxic, lethal residues.

Nano-diamond batteries from NDB are described as alpha, beta, and neutron voltaic batteries and have several new features according to their website.

Durability. The firm calculates that the batteries could last up to 28,000 years, which means that they could reliably power space vehicles in long-duration missions, space stations, and satellites. Drones, electric cars, and aircraft on Earth would never need to make stops to be recharged.


Safety. Diamond is not only one of the hardest substances, but also one of the most thermally conductive materials in the world, which helps protect against the heat produced by the radioisotopes that the battery is built with, turning it into electric current very quickly. 


Market-friendliness. Thin-film layers of PCD in these allow the battery to allow for different shapes and forms. This is why nano-diamond batteries can be multipurpose and enter different markets, from the aforementioned space applications to consumer electronics. The consumer version would not last more than a decade, though.

Nano-diamond batteries are scheduled to come onto the market in 2023.

Arkenlight, the English firm commercializing Bristol’s radioactive diamond battery, plans on releasing their first product, a microbattery, to the market in the latter part of 2023.

University of Bristol researcher Professor Tom Scott told Nuclear Energy Insider that, “By removing the Carbon-14 from irradiated graphite directly from the reactor, this would make the remaining waste products less radioactive and therefore easier to manage and dispose of. Cost estimates for disposing of the graphite waste are 46,000 pounds ($60,000) per cubic meter for Intermediate Level Waste [ILW] and 3,000 pounds ($4,000) per cubic meter for Low-Level Waste [LLW]."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2023, 07:54:07 AM

Do humans cause climate change? Even now, only half of Americans say yes. | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4019474-do-humans-cause-climate-change-even-now-only-half-of-americans-say-yes/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2023, 07:57:33 AM

I think more than half would admit humans cause some climate change

it's the "how much" that is the question

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2023, 08:05:09 AM

Yes, the "how much" is a critical point, as well as "What could be done about it in any practicable sense?".  The latter question is largely ignored.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on May 25, 2023, 08:29:20 AM

Angels on a pin head.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2023, 08:16:25 AM

Los Angeles International Airport emits approximately 19,000 tons of carbon dioxide—a month. The roughly 33,000 planes that fly in and out of the airport each month release about 800,000 tons of carbon dioxide.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 08:27:29 AM

So many tons doesn't mean anything to me without some kind of comparison.  The average US car emits about 4-5 tons per year.

At a cruising speed of 780 km per hour, this is equivalent to 90 kg CO2 per passenger per hour (737).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2023, 09:01:40 AM

it's an educated guess

supposed to sound like a lot

the gist is that you don't have to go that far just to drink beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 09:08:46 AM

Sure, I just think one needs some kind of point of reference.  It's like saying the nearest star is 4.3 light years away, it has not obvious context for us where distances are generally tens of miles, or hundreds, or even thousands, our minds don't relate to light years, one of which is nearly 6 trillion miles, which against doesn't compute.

"We" generated about 37 gigatons of CO2 last year.  What does that mean?  Sounds like a lot.  Of more relevance is that the amount continues to increase after a COVID related drop, and will continue in years to come to increase.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2023, 09:29:26 AM

0.4% increase sounds like a very little

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 10:05:23 AM

It is, for one year, but over a decade it starts to count, and the trend is what's important.  "We" should be heading down, if even slightly, and we're not, and we're not going to be any time soon (barring another COVID or economic melt down).  These various goals are being missed and are going to be missed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 10:28:13 AM

120 ppm increase seems too small to make a difference which is the basis for my skepticism

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 10:31:39 AM

A lot of things can "seem" this way or that of course.  An increase of that size in reality CAN be either significant and meaningul or irrelevant.

I don't base my thoughts on what seems to be if I can base them on something of sturdier foundations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 11:19:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 10:31:39 AM

A lot of things can "seem" this way or that of course.  An increase of that size in reality CAN be either significant and meaningul or irrelevant.

I don't base my thoughts on what seems to be if I can base them on something of sturdier foundations.

nothing more sturdier is being offered by the "experts"

It is pointed out that co2 has increased by 120 ppm due to man and its also getting warmer so this increase must be the reason

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 11:28:04 AM

The science of this is quite a bit more involved and "sturdy" than that, in my view, it's also quite complex.  I personally am persuaded by the "science" that the increase is meaningful.  I am quite a bit less confident in the models.  The complexity of the models is such that, in my experience, they are simply various "line fits" to past measurements and not necessarily predictive of the future.

The story here, one of, is how most on the right dispute the findings, and most on the left accept them, and most of either have done more than reading their own confirmation bias summaries of it all.  Ergo, their opinions are based on their politics, not the science.  This is not unusual of course.  If a person WANTS to believe a certain way they can find justification for that somewhere.  Reading a lot about it with an open mind and trying to discern what is mostly likely real is a LOT more work, almost impossible really.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2023, 12:07:23 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 11:19:13 AM

nothing more sturdier is being offered by the "experts"

It is pointed out that co2 has increased by 120 ppm due to man and its also getting warmer so this increase must be the reason

Which scientific papers are you referring to when you say "experts"? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 12:27:24 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2023, 12:07:23 PM

Which scientific papers are you referring to when you say "experts"?

am I wrong?

experts arent saying a warming increase is caused by an additional 120 ppm of co2 which is caused by man?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2023, 01:12:02 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 12:27:24 PM

am I wrong?

experts arent saying a warming increase is caused by an additional 120 ppm of co2 which is caused by man?

No, but let's pick apart your statement...

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 11:19:13 AM

nothing more sturdier is being offered

You're ignoring decades-worth of climate science here by saying nothing sturdy is being offered. I'm implying that you've clearly not even looked at any of the science.

Quote

by the "experts"

Using quotes around the word experts is a common way of saying that you don't believe they're experts at all. It's dismissing them out of hand.

Quote

It is pointed out that co2 has increased by 120 ppm due to man and its also getting warmer so this increase must be the reason

Again, ignoring that there are decades of climate science that not only explain the causal relationship between CO2, the greenhouse effect, and warming.

You're implying that the experts merely saw a correlation between two things and assign one to be the cause of the other, without rigorous study.

---------------

You're sticking your head in the sand and wondering why it's so dark... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 02:52:28 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2023, 01:12:02 PM

You're implying that the experts merely saw a correlation between two things and assign one to be the cause of the other, without rigorous study.

Yes thats what Im saying

in short I dont care how many years of data they have I dont think an increase of 120 ppm is causing the majority of global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2023, 04:11:12 PM

320, serious question...

When you go to the doctor and the doctor prescribes a medicine, and then you pick up the medicine from the pharmacy, do you base your belief on how effective that medicine will be based on the size of the pill? 

Because that would explain a lot. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 05:01:51 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2023, 04:11:12 PM

320, serious question...

When you go to the doctor and the doctor prescribes a medicine, and then you pick up the medicine from the pharmacy, do you base your belief on how effective that medicine will be based on the size of the pill?

Because that would explain a lot.

typical strategy when losing an arguement personal attacks


https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/666002/21b43e1b155051227ef2981acd52c254/19-16-292-C-Corbyn-data.pdf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 07:04:14 PM

Do you think the preindustrial level of 280 ppm CO2 had an effect on our climate?

That isn't much either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 07:15:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2023, 07:04:14 PM

Do you think the preindustrial level of 280 ppm CO2 had an effect on our climate?

That isn't much either.

probably the question is how much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 07:34:47 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 05:01:51 PM

typical strategy when losing an arguement personal attacks


https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/666002/21b43e1b155051227ef2981acd52c254/19-16-292-C-Corbyn-data.pdf

I find people begin personal attacks once reasoned, supported information is tossed aside immediately.
Like what you do, with facts that show you're wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 07:42:44 PM

Global temps have been mostly consistent the past few thousand years, sometimes trending slightly up and sometimes slightly down, within half a degree (C), when suddenly, beginning around the same time as the industrial revolution, it starts to jump up like a bat out of hell 1.0-1.5 degrees in an extremely brief amount of time.
.
Now yes, that could be a coincidence, but it's unlikely to be such a coincidence. 
You could make the argument that the temp increase could be a normal rise, as the temp has ebbed and flowed up and down that much and more over millions of years.  And it has.  BUT NOT IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.
.
So a logical person (or dare-say an expert) can look at the sudden rise being in lockstep with humans beginning to heavily burn fossil fuels AND this radical increase occurring over 150 years instead of 15,000 years and conclude, prudently, that people have had something to do with it.
I don't get why this is so hard and some people want to resist what's right there in front of their faces.  When if was something more benign for them and didn't interfere with their tribe's ideology, they'd otherwise acknowledge the point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 28, 2023, 07:47:23 PM

Fro's post looks awfully plagiarized. 

That's not his usual posting style at all. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 08:12:08 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 07:42:44 PM

Global temps have been mostly consistent the past few thousand years, sometimes trending slightly up and sometimes slightly down, within half a degree (C), when suddenly, beginning around the same time as the industrial revolution, it starts to jump up like a bat out of hell 1.0-1.5 degrees in an extremely brief amount of time.
.
Now yes, that could be a coincidence, but it's unlikely to be such a coincidence. 
You could make the argument that the temp increase could be a normal rise, as the temp has ebbed and flowed up and down that much and more over millions of years.  And it has.  BUT NOT IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.
.
So a logical person (or dare-say an expert) can look at the sudden rise being in lockstep with humans beginning to heavily burn fossil fuels AND this radical increase occurring over 150 years instead of 15,000 years and conclude, prudently, that people have had something to do with it.
I don't get why this is so hard and some people want to resist what's right there in front of their faces.  When if was something more benign for them and didn't interfere with their tribe's ideology, they'd otherwise acknowledge the point.

same logic as in the summer there is more violent crime and also in the summer ice cream sales are higher so it follows that ice cream causes violent crime

Im not questioning the fact that there is slight warming only that 120 ppm is the cause

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 08:20:53 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 07:42:44 PM

I don't get why this is so hard and some people want to resist what's right there in front of their faces.  When if was something more benign for them and didn't interfere with their tribe's ideology, they'd otherwise acknowledge the point.

My skepticism is not political at all.  Im just not going to consent to having my life style changed just because folks believe that an increase in co2 of 120 ppm is the main cause of global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 10:30:24 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 28, 2023, 07:47:23 PM

Fro's post looks awfully plagiarized.

That's not his usual posting style at all.

type it into google, dickhead 

I won't bother waiting for an apology.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 10:30:53 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 08:20:53 PM

My skepticism is not political at all. 

I don't believe you, even if you believe this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 28, 2023, 10:45:32 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 10:30:24 PM

type it into google, dickhead 

I won't bother waiting for an apology.

You could have copied and pasted it from a private message board.

Probably did. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2023, 11:16:56 PM

Sure, why not.  Your mind is made up.  (slow clap)
Thanks for distracting from my point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 05:39:02 AM

It remains the case that nearly all "deniers" reached that point of view for political reasons, and nearly all ardent worriers/protesters did the same.

It also remains the case that CO2 levels are going to continue to rise for some time, decades probably, no matter how many agreements are signed.  The math is pretty clear on that one, barring another major drop in economic activity.  You can't just sign agreements and throw money at a problem and expect any results.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 06:06:31 AM

One other item in all of this, measuring "global mean temperature" is not an easy thing to achieve, accurately.  

Explainer: How do scientists measure global temperature? - Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature/)

There is a good bit of interpolation and adjustment (for heat island effects for example).

This is a pretty good explanation of how such a small amount of CO2 can have an impact:

Wait, the Atmosphere Is Only 0.04% Carbon Dioxide. How Does It Affect Earth’s Climate? (scitechdaily.com) (https://scitechdaily.com/wait-the-atmosphere-is-only-0-04-carbon-dioxide-how-does-it-affect-earths-climate/)

This one has math in it, and predicts how cool our climate would be with zero CO2 in the atmosphere.

10Page63.pdf (nasa.gov) (https://spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov/weekly/10Page63.pdf)

There is quite a bit more to all of than just some correlation between warming and CO2 increases.  And it gets over my head in a hurry.  If my car breaks, I take it to a mechanic, if I get really sick, I go to an MD, in this case, I try and listen to as many "experts" in the field as possible and discern what makes sense overall knowing I personally lack the ability and time to really pore through all the literature and findings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 06:37:49 AM

CLINTEL’s critical evaluation of the IPCC AR6 | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/05/13/clintels-critical-evaluation-of-the-ipcc-ar6/#more-30093)

There is a lot of good material in the AR6 WG1 Report, but there is also a lot of cherry picking and flat out errors in the Report (the AR6 WG2 Report is just flat out bad).  With any kind of serious review, or if the author teams have been sufficiently diverse, we would not see so many of these kinds of errors.  Unfortunately, the IPCC defines “diversity” in terms of gender, race and developed versus underdeveloped countries; actual diversity of thought and perspective is dismissed in favor of promoting the politically mandated narrative from the UN. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2023, 08:11:54 AM

Only politics could inspire a childless man like Fro to care what happens to the world after he dies. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 08:16:08 AM

I disagree, I think a human can sincerely care about "society" and "humanity" longer term, I know I do.  Of course, I do have offspring.

Most discussion about CC devolves to politics and dogma, not science.  There is a reason for this I suspect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2023, 08:38:29 AM

If you have kids then that allows you to pompously bloviate about "leaving a better world" for them. 

When you don't have kids then the only thing that matters is what happens during your own lifetime, where it's pretty much guaranteed to not change by more than a tenth of a degree. 

Now I suppose it's possible that a childless person might just have a really big heart for his fellow man. But this is fro that we are talking about. He's very selfish and juvenile in all aspects of his life, unless of course when his puppet masters command him to do otherwise; as is the case here with climate change. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 08:51:16 AM

The models indicate an increase in global T of another ~0.8°C by 2050 under currrent trends on top of 1.1°C said to have warmed so far.  I COULD be alive then, probably not in great shape.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2023, 08:54:24 AM

I'll still need to go south in January to play golf

I just hope I'm able to play golf in 2050

upper 80s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2023, 09:01:43 AM

A real NW Iowan should be able to golf in snow. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2023, 09:28:43 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 05:01:51 PM

typical strategy when losing an arguement personal attacks


https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/666002/21b43e1b155051227ef2981acd52c254/19-16-292-C-Corbyn-data.pdf

• It's easy, when you've already reached a conclusion, to seek out sources that agree with your conclusion and ignore everything else.
• Author is an astrophysicist, not a climate scientist.
• He pulls out the same tired "human CO2 is only 4% of CO2" BS that we debunked in this thread for you weeks ago.
• He claims that current CO2 are an effect of the medieval warm period 500-800 years ago based on some understanding (again that we talked about in this thread, involving climate feedback loops) that during the transition from ice ages to warm periods, there is a lag between temp and CO2. However, there's no precedent for 410 ppm CO2, and no way that this level today could be an effect of the medieval warm period.
• When an author starts his piece in only the second paragraph saying that this is about "tax and control" policies, you understand there might be political bias in a paper like this.

I've read yours. I'd love your thoughts on mine. 160+ year history of science and the study of CO2 and the greenhouse effect going back to 1859.

https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2023, 08:20:53 PM

My skepticism is not political at all.  Im just not going to consent to having my life style changed just because folks believe that an increase in co2 of 120 ppm is the main cause of global warming

Somehow I believe this is the reverse. You're opposed to any change in lifestyle, so you deny the problem and seek out only sources which tell you it is all going to be just fine. 

In psychology, we'd call that "motivated reasoning". 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 09:41:43 AM

Piers Corbyn - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn)

Dude has had an interesting life is wiki is to  be believed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2023, 09:42:16 AM

This climate science stuff is funded by and conducted by who?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 29, 2023, 09:44:49 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2023, 09:28:43 AM

• It's easy, when you've already reached a conclusion, to seek out sources that agree with your conclusion and ignore everything else.
• Author is an astrophysicist, not a climate scientist.
• He pulls out the same tired "human CO2 is only 4% of CO2" BS that we debunked in this thread for you weeks ago.
• He claims that current CO2 are an effect of the medieval warm period 500-800 years ago based on some understanding (again that we talked about in this thread, involving climate feedback loops) that during the transition from ice ages to warm periods, there is a lag between temp and CO2. However, there's no precedent for 410 ppm CO2, and no way that this level today could be an effect of the medieval warm period.
• When an author starts his piece in only the second paragraph saying that this is about "tax and control" policies, you understand there might be political bias in a paper like this.

I've read yours. I'd love your thoughts on mine. 160+ year history of science and the study of CO2 and the greenhouse effect going back to 1859.

https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
Somehow I believe this is the reverse. You're opposed to any change in lifestyle, so you deny the problem and seek out only sources which tell you it is all going to be just fine.

In psychology, we'd call that "motivated reasoning".

get over yourself beta

we just dont see eye to eye on this so stop trying to read my soul

go ahead and save the world just stay the hell away from my pocket book while you do

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 09:46:48 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2023, 09:42:16 AM

This climate science stuff is funded by and conducted by who?

It's been funded by a wide variety of agencies globally, some by oil companies et al., most by governments.

I found it enlightening to try and read some of the primary literature in Nature or Science, it gets past my ability to follow without more work than I wanted to put into it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2023, 09:53:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 09:46:48 AM

It's been funded by a wide variety of agencies globally, some by oil companies et al., most by governments.

I found it enlightening to try and read some of the primary literature in Nature or Science, it gets past my ability to follow without more work than I wanted to put into it.

(https://i.imgur.com/W9OddgE.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2023, 09:57:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 09:46:48 AM

It's been funded by a wide variety of agencies globally, some by oil companies et al., most by governments.

I found it enlightening to try and read some of the primary literature in Nature or Science, it gets past my ability to follow without more work than I wanted to put into it.

me too

I just wish I could trust someone

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 10:01:25 AM

As I keep saying, the debate is, to me, moot anyway.  "We" are going to throw money at it, rather aimlessly in my view, and then complain when the problem gets worse (if there is a problem).  There simply is no realistic practicable plan to deal with CO2 emissions in an amount that could possibly matter.  The last piece of legislation appropriate $37 billion a year for "stuff" which isn't remotely enough to curb US CO2 emissions beyond what would happen anyway.  One estimate I heard was it would cost $50 TRILLION to get to net neutral in the US alone by 2050.  TRILLION.  

Get real.  We might be better off spending money on dikes and dams ....:57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2023, 10:20:31 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 29, 2023, 09:44:49 AM

we just dont see eye to eye on this so stop trying to read my soul

Yes, it's clearly just different ways of seeing the world. I evaluate the science and use it to form an opinion. You form an opinion and seek out science to rationalize why your opinion was right in the first place. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2023, 10:22:24 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 29, 2023, 09:57:42 AM

me too

I just wish I could trust someone

As Ayn Rand said, "Allow nothing to pass the verdict of your own mind."

If you can't trust anyone, go to the source. Be like CD and actually try to go read and understand the primary research. The farther you get away from primary research, to the point where you're listening to journalists or politicians or editorialists, the harder it is to have any level of trust for any of them. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 10:28:08 AM

Global warming skeptic: Piers Corbyn (skepticalscience.com) (https://skepticalscience.com/peerreviewedskeptics.php?s=21)

The site attempts to address some of the issues "deniers" have with climate change.  I'm far from saying it's entirely correct, but it's fairly technical, I have not found any obvious errors in it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 29, 2023, 11:03:08 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2023, 10:20:31 AM

Yes, it's clearly just different ways of seeing the world. I evaluate the science and use it to form an opinion. You form an opinion and seek out science to rationalize why your opinion was right in the first place.

good for you but you misread me

the only opinion I have is 120 ppm increase in co2 is not causing the planet to warm

other then that Im open to other suggested reasons causing warming

and BTW Im not alone in my opinion I could have posted several more expert opinions which agree with me

You say you evaluate science to form an opinion but while doing so you cast out any scientific opinion that does not agree with your formed opinion so bottom line you are guilty of what you are accusing me of

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2023, 11:30:16 AM

Senate Budget Committee Hearing: JC responds | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/03/26/senate-budget-committee-hearing-jc-responds/#more-29912)

This site has some interesting discussion, and Judith Curry has some pretty impressive credentials, in the field of course.  She is not a "denier" but she does question some of the more extreme comments and misuse of the climate models (including by the IPCC).  Of course, this leaves one in a vague middle ground of "I'm not so sure about some things here", as opposed to being pretty convinced one is correct on either side.

The above "discussion" in front of Congress also illustrates how folks in Congress don't look for answers, they look for "gotchas", Whitehouse clearly thought he could trap her (he didn't except in his own mind).  

"If you are going to attempt such a takedown in the future, I suggest that you need better staffers.  The questions on “corrupt”, “hoax”, Exxon, and API were truly inane.  If you are attempting to prove something such as 2004 climate model projections matching observations, you should rely on a better source than a blog post.  In any event, all this seems to have impressed the 80 or so clueless commenters on your youtube clip.  But it won’t impress serious people.

Climate change is a serious issue.  Depending on your perspective and values, there will be much future loss and damage from either climate change itself, or from the  policies designed to prevent climate change. Conflicts surrounding climate change have been exacerbated by oversimplifying both the problem and its solutions. And from mischaracterizing the risks from climate change.

Constructively working with your Republican colleagues is essential for accomplishing anything that could help reduce our vulnerability to extreme weather events and the slow creep of warming.  A good start would be to provide some modicum of respect towards witnesses invited by Republicans and carefully considering the arguments made in their testimony.  Hearings are an opportunity for Senators to actually learn things from the expert witnesses."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2023, 12:12:08 PM

The earth has warmed.

But:

We don't really know why.

But:

We have to do something.

But:

We don't know what to do.

But:

Print Money.


Rinse and repeat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2023, 09:30:11 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2023, 12:12:08 PM

The earth has warmed.

But:

We don't really know why.

But:

We have to do something.

But:

We don't know what to do.

But:

Print Money.


Rinse and repeat.

This is all mostly wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2023, 09:31:57 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2023, 08:11:54 AM

Only politics could inspire a childless man like Fro to care what happens to the world after he dies.

Because a person should only care about their offspring?

You'll forever be less ethical that I could ever be.  Praise the lord!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2023, 09:32:59 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2023, 08:38:29 AM

If you have kids then that allows you to pompously bloviate about "leaving a better world" for them.

When you don't have kids then the only thing that matters is what happens during your own lifetime, where it's pretty much guaranteed to not change by more than a tenth of a degree.

Now I suppose it's possible that a childless person might just have a really big heart for his fellow man. But this is fro that we are talking about. He's very selfish and juvenile in all aspects of his life, unless of course when his puppet masters command him to do otherwise; as is the case here with climate change.

Let's see how many consecutive personal attack posts you can get to.  Right now, you're at 3.
.
The fact that you'd even question a childless person's caring for the future of humanity reveals your character.
You probably get all of your ethics from the bible and without a god, you probably worry that you'd go around raping and killing everyone.  In which case, please keep your faith strong!
.
As it is, you're being a colossal asshat and everyone sees it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 06:19:24 AM

I do see some asshattish kind of behaviors here at times.  I'd prefer any personal attacks and name calling be kept off these pages.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 06:52:18 AM

At any rate, life goes on of course, "we" will throw money at this "problem", not nearly enough to matter to the problem but enough to line pockets of the connected out there.  I could guess someone making too much to get the $7500 tax credit on a new EV might have a "straw purchaser" buy it for them, if the money is even a consideration to them.  The salary cap on this is pretty high anyway.

The best forecast I've seen has half the cars in the US being ICE vehicles by 2050 anyway.  That would cut auto pollution some, if the electricity is "green", but you still have heavy trucks as a rather major emitter.  There are a lot of trucks out there running on Diesel at 8-10 mpg.  One truck = 3-4 cars.  Maybe they go to fuel cells which poses another infrastructure challenge.  

Then there is the grid of course and all the various power sources.  The EIA projects we'll still be burning a good bit of coal in 2050.  Wind and solar are OK with me but the intermittency issue remains as of now.  Nuclear is going to drop over time as current plants are decommissioned and new plants don't happen unless SMRs catch fire, so to speak.  There simply is no realistic plan, just hand waving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 07:43:53 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2023, 09:30:11 PM

This is all mostly wrong.

Prove it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 07:47:49 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 06:52:18 AM

At any rate, life goes on of course, "we" will throw money at this "problem", not nearly enough to matter to the problem but enough to line pockets of the connected out there.  I could guess someone making too much to get the $7500 tax credit on a new EV might have a "straw purchaser" buy it for them, if the money is even a consideration to them.  The salary cap on this is pretty high anyway.

The best forecast I've seen has half the cars in the US being ICE vehicles by 2050 anyway.  That would cut auto pollution some, if the electricity is "green", but you still have heavy trucks as a rather major emitter.  There are a lot of trucks out there running on Diesel at 8-10 mpg.  One truck = 3-4 cars.  Maybe they go to fuel cells which poses another infrastructure challenge. 

Then there is the grid of course and all the various power sources.  The EIA projects we'll still be burning a good bit of coal in 2050.  Wind and solar are OK with me but the intermittency issue remains as of now.  Nuclear is going to drop over time as current plants are decommissioned and new plants don't happen unless SMRs catch fire, so to speak.  There simply is no realistic plan, just hand waving.

And ships, trains, construction equipment, etc. Let's also not forget the mining for the batteries.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 07:57:55 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 07:47:49 AM

And ships, trains, construction equipment, etc. Let's also not forget the mining for the batteries.

Agricultural vehicles ... planes ... yup ... the notion of "net zero" by 2050 is not even a notion, or even a dream, it's a fantasy (short of economic meltdown or fusion becoming a reality).  People are simply lying about all of this because it opens government coffers for make work and make profit options.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 08:03:08 AM

People are simply lying about all of this because it opens government coffers for make work and make profit options.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 08:10:59 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2023, 10:22:24 AM

As Ayn Rand said, "Allow nothing to pass the verdict of your own mind."

If you can't trust anyone, go to the source. Be like CD and actually try to go read and understand the primary research. The farther you get away from primary research, to the point where you're listening to journalists or politicians or editorialists, the harder it is to have any level of trust for any of them.

there are hundreds of sources of primary research
which shall I trust?
This Judith Curry person seems reasonable, but should I trust her?
It's obviously very complex and the best sources will admit that they really aren't certain about their projections
I have this issue and I know that politicians struggle with whom to trust.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 08:11:04 AM

I've seen the MCS Cruises commercial a few times now.

They claim that they will be all green in the future. They know damn well it's not true - unless they go with nuclear power - which ain't gonna happen.

They also know that the TV commercial will appeal to the greenies who will choose MSC over Royal. 

Or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 08:12:09 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 08:10:59 AM

there are hundreds of sources of primary research
which shall I trust?
This Judith Curry person seems reasonable, but should I trust her?
It's obviously very complex and the best sources will admit that they really aren't certain about their projections
I have this issue and I know that politicians struggle with whom to trust.

I think it's more like they trust whatever fits the narrative.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 08:16:49 AM

if they are true greenies and want to help, they will abstain from cruises and jet airliners

that's how I gauge commitment to save the planet

many want the government to do something, but they themselves sacrifice very little to help the cause.

they may buy an EV or put a solar panel on their roof, but the rest of their lifestyle goes unchanged. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 08:17:01 AM

I figure I have so little influence it doesn't really matter who I trust, it doesn't impact my behaviors or life in any way.  I believe in being a good steward of the environment in a general sense.  I made a pretty good effort to "read up" on the topic from the primary literature, and it's simply beyond my capabilities (too much jargon for one thing).  I know I'm personally not technically able to make my own determination, so to the extent I have an opinion, it's reflecting someone/something I have some trust in obviously.

I find Curry's page to be interesting and thought provoking, I pay a lot less attention to the comments section.  I generally align with her POV.  So, I guess I trust her pretty much, perhaps because her POV aligned with what I had been thinking anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 08:19:20 AM

Companies will of course conduct PR campaigns, Exxon has had some about algae (which has all sorts of issues, and they know this).  Cruise lines will make "promises", maybe at some point they buy carbon offsets, but I doubt it really happens.  Off in the future they MIGHT use hydrogen, but that is way off.  Batteries are out.  At some point truly green hydrocarbon fuel might come to pass but it'll be expensive (Porsche).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 08:55:47 AM

Land around the U.S. is sinking. Here are some of the fastest areas. (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/land-around-the-u-s-is-sinking-here-are-some-of-the-fastest-areas/ar-AA1bSzXn?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8112a6037857468aabe3a8393162a144&ei=11)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 08:56:23 AM

Why planes will be powered by hydrogen before batteries (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/05/11/why-planes-will-be-powered-by-hydrogen-before-batteries.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 30, 2023, 12:11:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 08:10:59 AM

there are hundreds of sources of primary research
which shall I trust?
This Judith Curry person seems reasonable, but should I trust her?
It's obviously very complex and the best sources will admit that they really aren't certain about their projections
I have this issue and I know that politicians struggle with whom to trust.

It's a really hard thing to say. You could write a book on it. In fact, I've kinda thought about writing a book called "The Internet Polymath" all about using the internet to rapidly accelerate the learning curve of nearly any discipline. And a good portion of it will be written about how to evaluate online communities and sources, how to identify trustworthy places vs red flags to be avoided, etc. 

I'd say there are a lot of things to consider:

• First and foremost, cast your net widely. Do not limit yourself to one "side" or the other. Confirmation bias is dangerous, and when you're learning about what the "other" side believes from your own, you know you're getting a distorted view. 
• When reading the "other" side, read their *best* and most credible sources, not their hacks. It's easy to form a poor opinion of a position if you're only reading the worst sources. 
• Look closely for flaws in someone's evidence, someone's reasoning, etc. Again with confirmation bias, don't look for flaws in the "other" position but uncritically accept what your own "side" says. With confirmation bias, I actually advise to try to be MORE critical of your own side, because your brain naturally wants to be critical of the other side and not your own. So you have to work at it. 
• Be wary of anyone who is too sure of themselves. In anything scientific, those who sound the most definitively sure about anything are typically trying to sell you a position, not trying to search for truth. Only Sith deal in absolutes.
• The corollary to that is try to read the people that give the opposing side the most fair treatment, that takes their strongest arguments and try to rebut them with reasoning and argument, not dismissive rhetoric. The little I've read of Judith Curry, I think she does this. However per #1, you should also read the sources critiquing Curry's work, to get both sides. 
• Credibility is hard to earn, but easy to lose. For example in 320's latest link, the source is one that would be hard to give credibility w/o study. However with two basic claims (that humans are only responsible for 4% of the CO2 in the atmosphere, and that current CO2 levels are high b/c of the medieval warm period), the guy basically shot himself in the foot. I've studied this enough to know that the first claim is BS. And although the claim of lag between temp and CO2 is there, there's no logical way to explain why a very slightly warmer period hundreds of years ago could be the cause of the massively high (410 ppm) CO2 levels we see today. 295 ppm? Sure. 410? No logical way to square that circle. 
• Use your gut. If someone sounds like they're full of shit, they probably are. 

Finally... You shouldn't "trust" anyone. That's the point of "Never allow anything to pass the verdict of your own mind." The minute you trust a source, and stop looking at what they say with a critical eye, you're ceding control of your own beliefs to someone else. That's something you should never do.  


---------------------

Now, this is all hard work. And at the end of the day, when it comes to something like global CO2 emissions and climate change, you or I as individuals basically make just about zero difference at all. There's a thing called "rational ignorance" where the ability to affect something simply isn't worth taking the time to learn it. Regardless of anything about CO2 emissions, even if I convince you and 320 of everything I say, the world is going to either succeed or fail regardless of anything we type here. So if all this critical thought seems like it's not worth it? It probably isn't, to be honest. It's pretty much intellectual underwater basket-weaving, and little more. 

However, I'd say that if you want to actually discuss these things in an online forum such as this, the above list should be the "table stakes" that you're expected to bring. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 12:46:53 PM

very good

I cast a wide net.  usually here
I'm very wary of anyone who is too sure of themselves. (most are)

hard work and the end of the day - this is me..... too much work for too little gain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 01:03:38 PM

I am absolutely 100% CERTAIN some folks are too sure of themselves ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 01:39:38 PM

I've often encountered opinion pieces that seem well written and authoritative, and then looked for rebuttals, and found them.  I'd say USUALLY the rebuddle makes it clear what was omitted or exaggerated or mischaracterized in the first piece.  Sometimes of course the rebuttal is not well done.  I also look at "grammer/speling" errors as one indication a piece might be amateurish (my fav is "your an idiot"...).  Another sign is the old ad hominem attack.

And there is posting "data" in some form with no attribution, a graph with no clearly labeled axes, something with a citation that is incorrect, etc.  I can usually tell when something is well written though that is not a complete assuredness it is accurate of course, but if it's poorly written, it very likely is botched analysis.  And then I look for whether anyone has rebutted the rebuttal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 30, 2023, 03:38:42 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2023, 12:12:08 PM

The earth has warmed.

But:

We don't really know why.  our influence + the natural ebb & flow

But:

We have to do something.  we could just shrug and ignore it, like a certain 40% of the pop. tribe wants us to

But:

We don't know what to do.  we know exactly what to do to, it's just a massive undertaking

But:

Print Money.


Rinse and repeat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 03:43:09 PM

We might know what to do in the broadest of strokes, but we do NOT know how to get there in any practicable pathway.  That is why there is no real plan, anywhere.  There is just pie in the sky, throw money at it, wind and solar ... more wind and solar.

It's NOT going to happen even partially to the degree needed.  It's pretty simple math.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 30, 2023, 04:08:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 03:43:09 PM

We might know what to do in the broadest of strokes, but we do NOT know how to get there in any practicable pathway.  

Well, the issue that we have is that we have only established, scientifically, a few things:

• CO2 is a greenhouse gas
• Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 will cause warming
• Man is dramatically increasing atmospheric CO2 by burning fossil fuels
• The Earth is warming
• A significant portion of that warming is due to man

But there are a lot of other questions:

• Is warming bad? 
• If yes, how bad? 
• What are the negative economic effects of letting warming continue? Are there positive economic effects?
• What are the negative economic effects of trying to massively remake our energy infrastructure to stop emitting now?  
• Which economic effects are worse?
• Are there catastrophic effects that massively outweigh the economic calculation above and mean warming MUST be curtailed?

Those are the questions that are a hell of a lot harder to answer. And they're really not questions that mostly are even addressed by climate scientists (except potentially the first and last ones). Because just as economists aren't well versed in climate science, climate scientists aren't well versed in economics. 

We know that we're warming the planet. We know why. We know how to stop it, although it's not economically practicable. 

But has anyone even done the cost/benefit analysis? Would the world be better or worse off if Florida was under a few meters of water but giant land masses in Canada and Siberia were transformed into verdant productive farmland? Absent catastrophic outcomes, should we even be trying to stop warming? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 04:29:07 PM

The earth has warmed.

But:

We don't really know why.  our influence + the natural ebb & flow How much of each? We don't know.

But:

We have to do something.  we could just shrug and ignore it, like a certain 40% of the pop. tribe wants us to What should we do? Going green takes a shit-ton (not metric ton) of energy in itself.

But:

We don't know what to do.  we know exactly what to do to, it's just a massive undertaking "Exactly" what is this that we know "exactly" about?

But:

Print Money. Guaranteed.


Rinse and repeat. Guaranteed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 04:42:22 PM

It's too early for this.

(https://i.imgur.com/iZPiak3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 04:45:33 PM

you might want to move to Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 04:46:12 PM

That's where the next one will go.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 30, 2023, 04:49:43 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 04:42:22 PM

It's too early for this.

Maybe I'm just not parsing your statement, but what do you mean by "It's too early for this."?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 04:51:08 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 30, 2023, 04:49:43 PM

Maybe I'm just not parsing your statement, but what do you mean by "It's too early for this."?

September/October is the teeth of the tropical storm season. Runs from June 1 through November.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 04:52:23 PM

It's almost june 1st

right on time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 30, 2023, 05:01:32 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2023, 04:51:08 PM

September/October is the teeth of the tropical storm season. Runs from June 1 through November.

Ahh got it. 

Is there any understanding as to why the season is starting so soon this year? Has it been trending sooner over the last couple of decades? 

Obv being out here on the West Coast, I don't really pay much attention to Gulf/Atlantic storms. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 05:30:00 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 30, 2023, 04:08:38 PM

But has anyone even done the cost/benefit analysis? 

Not even close because such an analysis would be very off the narrative and depressing.  I heard one "expert" sat Net Zero by 2050 for the US alone would cost $50 trillion.  Assuming that is in the ballpark, it's beyond ridiculous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 30, 2023, 05:45:27 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 05:30:00 PM

Not even close because such an analysis would be very off the narrative and depressing.  I heard one "expert" sat Net Zero by 2050 for the US alone would cost $50 trillion.  Assuming that is in the ballpark, it's beyond ridiculous.

especially China and India are not on board

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 05:47:46 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 30, 2023, 05:45:27 PM

especially China and India are not on board

Even that really doesn't matter, as even if they were entirely on board, the US simply isn't going to spend $50 trillion over 27 years.

(And they are not on board obviously anyway.)

No country can afford that kind of money.  It obviously annoys me no end.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2023, 05:49:27 PM

we also can't afford the pile of money they will spend, but............

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2023, 05:56:36 PM

The last bill, the "IRA", allocates $37 billion a year for ten years, which is relatively modest of course, and will probably do a little bit that is useful, maybe a billion worth.

But seriously, thinking we'll find another $ TRILLION a year is just silly nonsense.

What it will cost to get to net-zero | McKinsey (https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/what-it-will-cost-to-get-to-net-zero)

$275 trillion globally, as if ...

Stopping Global Warming Will Cost $50 Trillion: Morgan Stanley Report (forbes.com) (https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/24/stopping-global-warming-will-cost-50-trillion-morgan-stanley-report/?sh=7e190f7651e2)

This is why I keep saying "we" have to get realistic about this stuff at some point and quit pretending.

The $50 Trillion Carbon Neutral Plan That Experts Admit Won’t Work (johnlocke.org) (https://www.johnlocke.org/the-50-trillion-carbon-neutral-plan-that-experts-admit-wont-work/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 30, 2023, 09:48:29 PM

I always hear about the cost of trying to be proactive (decades too late), but no one mentions the cost of being reactive.
When Florida is under water, how much will it cost to house and move 25 million people? 
If there's x% more wildfires and hurricanes causing x% more damage, how much will that cost?
.
At least you're choosing the "when" and the "how much," however radical it may seem, when attempting to be proactive.
The problem with being reactive is that you have no say of "when" or "how much."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 30, 2023, 10:51:15 PM

The truth of the matter is that the only way to stop or at least slow global warming is that we have to change.  Nobody wants to, I damn sure don't want to, so here we are.  

I'm not going to change when Bill Gates, Joe Biden, all the rich folks in Silicon Valley and Hollywood and Wall Street aren't going to give up their mega yachts or private planes or McMansions (or literal mansions most likely).  We all know that all of these A-List fear-mongers emit more carbon than you or I ever could in our lifetime and they do it in a year what we couldn't do in a lifetime.

Leonardo DiCaprio isn't flying commercial jetting all over the world to scream about the environment.  And then it just rolls down hill all the way to the pretty rich folks who fly for fun (like Cincy Dawg) on down the people who use gas to heat their house in the winter down to the lowest levels of society.  The really poor don't give a flyin' fuck about Global Warming or climate change anyways, that's a rich man's problem.  

I know that I'd have to give up my boats, my truck, my A/C and all the creature comforts that I would literally die protecting because I'm not giving up one inch of my lifestyle.  And in truth, there is very little the US Gov't could do to make me.  If they tried to (and everybody knows their trying, but just a little whittle here and there) they know there would either be an uprising or revolt and they would soon be voted out of office.  Sure, there are fringes like AOC who preach this shit, but her constituents really don't want the change they vote for, if they got it they would immediately vote her out.  

So they increase the gas mileage standards a little bit, try to encourage electric car usage, put some money into R&D for green energy, put up subsidies for wind turbines and solar panels.  But let's face it, we all know that Climate Change is happening, already happened, and will continue to happen for at least the next 100-300 years.  I've read reports that even if we stopped 100% emitting carbon we would not see any reversal for that period of time.  So we all know what we're going to do is just learn to live with it.  More storms like Harvey, more extreme weather events, some people will move, some cities like NYC will end up building big sea-walls (I kinda think maybe that is bullshit with regards to how high the sea will get).  Some places will be abandoned, but hell there is cities that are fully submerged from thousands of years ago so it wouldn't be the first time.  

And plants will grow better and longer in season, and there will be some good side effects like maybe Minnesota not being so damn cold in the winter.  Weirdly, I feel that Texas is much, much colder in the winter so 'splain that one to me.  

But I'm only going to change when it's convenient for me to do so and cheaper.  Like if I can get an electric truck that is cheaper to operate and can go 500 miles one a charge and re-charge in under 30 minutes.  

And none of you are changing either, so let's just quit arguing about minutia that may or may not occur and just get on with living.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 30, 2023, 11:38:35 PM

That's all we can do.
.
I do love the "maybe there's good things about it" narrative, though.  That's amazing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 31, 2023, 12:02:02 AM

PS I was joking about CD being rich and flying for fun. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 31, 2023, 12:04:53 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 30, 2023, 11:38:35 PM

That's all we can do.
.
I do love the "maybe there's good things about it" narrative, though.  That's amazing.

We’ll, not all the earth will be negatively affected. You know that right?  Some areas will be more temperate, dry areas will receive more rainfall, cold areas will be warmer. It’s widely known by climate scientists, disregarded by the media. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 03:53:52 AM

Of course, but all of human society and settlement has been based on relatively consistent temps since the last ice age. 
I realize the port of Miami being under 20 feet of water is good for the eventual port of Orlando, but that transition is going to be a major one.
And the cost of the "bad for some, good for others" ideology will be just as high as the "too high" costs being thrown around now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 06:49:12 AM

How long will it take for Miami to be under 20 feet of water?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 07:01:49 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 30, 2023, 09:48:29 PM

I always hear about the cost of trying to be proactive (decades too late), but no one mentions the cost of being reactive.
When Florida is under water, how much will it cost to house and move 25 million people? 
If there's x% more wildfires and hurricanes causing x% more damage, how much will that cost?
.

Might we infer you favor spending that $50 trillion lest these bad things happen?  When are they projected to occur, according to the IPCC models, e.g., Florida being under water etc.?  Have hurricane frequencies in the Atlantic basin increased over the years?  Has their power increased?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 07:27:41 AM

you know, with the satellite pics I see of before and after of some glaciers and ice caps seemingly HUGE amounts of ice has melted in the past 10 years or so.........

the ocean levels at least on the east and west coast of the US haven't changed much a tall

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 07:32:20 AM

The hysterics of folks talking about Florida being under water in X years is stuff from movies, not the IPCC.  Ignorance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 07:35:22 AM

and if some folks around the coasts lose property to a few meters of rise, I don't feel it's my fiscal responsibility to reimburse them for relocation.

but, I feel that way about many ways my government uses my tax dollars

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 07:39:59 AM

A consumer class action lawsuit filed Tuesday claims Delta Air Lines inaccurately billed itself as the world’s “first carbon-neutral airline” and should pay damages. The complaint in federal court in California alleges the airline relied on carbon offsets that were largely bogus.

Companies around the world buy carbon credits to cancel out their carbon releases with projects that promise to absorb carbon dioxide out of the air, or prevent pollution that would’ve happened. But they’ve been under the spotlight in recent months with claims their benefits are exaggerated.

The company is a big customer, purchasing credits from projects including wind and solar projects in India and an Indonesian swamp forest, the lawsuit says.

Delta spokesperson Grant Myatt described the lawsuit as “without legal merit.”

“Since March 31, 2022, (Delta) has fully transitioned its focus away from carbon offsets toward decarbonization of our operations, focusing our efforts on investing in sustainable aviation fuel,” Myatt said in an email. He added that the company is renewing its fleet with “more fuel-efficient aircraft and implementing operational efficiencies.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 07:47:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 07:35:22 AM

and if some folks around the coasts lose property to a few meters of rise, I don't feel it's my fiscal responsibility to reimburse them for relocation.

According to yje IPCC models, how long would it take for mean sea level to rise "a few meters", call it 3 meters?


AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability — IPCC
 (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 08:07:22 AM

TS.C.5.4 Risks to coastal cities and settlements are projected to
increase by at least one order of magnitude by 2100 without
significant adaptation and mitigation action (high confidence).
The population at risk in coastal cities and settlements from a 100-
year coastal flood increases by approx. 20% if the global mean sea
level rises by 0.15 m relative to current levels, doubles at 0.75 m and
triples at 1.4 m, assuming present-day population and protection
height (high confidence). For example, in Europe, coastal flood
damage is projected to increase at least 10-fold by the end of the
21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation and
mitigation (high confidence). By 2100, 158–510  million people and
USD7,919–12,739 billion in assets are projected to be exposed to the
1-in-100-year coastal floodplain under RCP4.5, and 176–880 million
people and USD8,813–14,178  billion assets under RCP8.5

_________________________________________________ _______

0.15 meters in 77 years
doesn't state (high confidence)

How much are these folks(experts) getting paid???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 08:12:50 AM

Their projection is MSL would rise about 0.6 meters by 2100, if little to nothing is done.  For the metrically challenged, that's about two feet.

And it wouldn't be good, but it's not enough to bury Miami under 20 feet of water.  If you go out to maybe 2500 and nothing is done, maybe.

This illustrates one of my earlier points.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 08:13:07 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 30, 2023, 05:01:32 PM

Ahh got it.

Is there any understanding as to why the season is starting so soon this year? Has it been trending sooner over the last couple of decades?

Obv being out here on the West Coast, I don't really pay much attention to Gulf/Atlantic storms.

The season dates are set by the NHC in Miami, and they almost never change the dates.

The peak is generally September/October when the water is warmest.


(https://i.imgur.com/upMT65K.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 08:18:46 AM

There is a measure of hurricane activity and power called "ACE", Accumulated Cyclonic Energy.  It really has not changed much beyond the expected cyclic variability.

(https://i.imgur.com/6nLWt3B.png)

Nor has frequency ....

(https://i.imgur.com/wNojQ2T.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 08:19:18 AM

And no, Miami won't be under 20 feet of water in the lifetime of our grandchildren.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 08:20:39 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 30, 2023, 09:48:29 PM

I always hear about the cost of trying to be proactive (decades too late), but no one mentions the cost of being reactive.
When Florida is under water, how much will it cost to house and move 25 million people? 
If there's x% more wildfires and hurricanes causing x% more damage, how much will that cost?
.
At least you're choosing the "when" and the "how much," however radical it may seem, when attempting to be proactive.
The problem with being reactive is that you have no say of "when" or "how much."

When Florida is under water, so is NYC, much of LA and DC, among other places.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 08:23:17 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 08:12:50 AM

Their projection is MSL would rise about 0.6 meters by 2100, if little to nothing is done.  For the metrically challenged, that's about two feet.

And it wouldn't be good, but it's not enough to bury Miami under 20 feet of water.  If you go out to maybe 2500 and nothing is done, maybe.

This illustrates one of my earlier points.

Let's talk in feet. We're the US.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 08:25:02 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 08:19:18 AM

And no, Miami won't be under 20 feet of water in the lifetime of our grandchildren.

It's fair to say Miami will NEVER be under 20' of water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 08:28:39 AM

Anticipating Future Sea Levels (nasa.gov) (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels#:~:text=In its 2019 report%2C the,remain at high rates (RCP8.)

The RCP 8.5 scenario has recently been rejected as highly unlikely, the RCP 4,5 projection is the baseline estimate, but the IPCC.  So, we'd be looking at a rise in MSL of about 1.5 meters by 2300.  And 1.5 meters is about 5 feet.  That wouldn't be desirable at all, but it doesn't make Orlando a port city.  The hysteria at times gets amusing, to me.  Folks get their information from movies instead of the IPCC.  (I don't fault anyone for criticizing the IPCC, but for climate activists, that should be the gold standard.)

(https://i.imgur.com/NzjUi1w.png)

Note that IF we reach net zero by 2100 MSL rise is still nearly a meter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 08:44:34 AM

from that graph... 1900 a tenth of a meter below zero, hit zero sometime around 1980 and are now a tenth of a meter above zero.

I've seen little evidence that sea level has risen 8 inches from 1900

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 09:08:06 AM

It's quite difficult to perceive because of normal tidal and wind fluctuations, and erosion, sand displacement, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 09:25:50 AM

The Statue of Liberty would be a nice benchmark in 1924, gotta be benchmarks in Boston Harbor, or Stockholm, or Lisbon, or Venice.

but, if it's that difficult, then no one really knows and the experts are simply guessing as usual

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 09:37:01 AM

You still have to account for tides.  These are calculations based on predicted glacier melt rates and thermal expansion of water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 09:43:57 AM

guesstimates

and do we know what ill effects the planet and mankind have endured from sea level rise from the past 120years???

Cause this stuff  - these "risks" seem rather vague
_____________________________________________

Risks from sea level rise
TS.C.5 Coastal risks will increase by at least one order of magnitude over the 21st century due to committed sea level rise
impacting ecosystems, people, livelihoods, infrastructure, food
security, cultural and natural heritage and climate mitigation
at the coast. Concentrated in cities and settlements by the sea,
these risks are already being faced and will accelerate beyond
2050 and continue to escalate beyond 2100, even if warming
stops. Historically rare extreme sea level events will occur annually by 2100, compounding these risks (high confidence).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 09:48:00 AM

TS.C.5.2 The exposure of many coastal populations and
associated development to sea level rise is high, increasing risks,
and is concentrated in and around coastal cities and settlements
(virtually certain). High population growth and urbanisation in
low-lying coastal zones will be the major driver of increasing exposure
to sea level rise in the coming decades (high confidence). By 2030, 108–
116 million people will be exposed to sea level rise in Africa (compared
to 54 million in 2000), increasing to 190–245 million by 2060 (medium
confidence). By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying
cities and settlements will be at risk from coast-specific climate
hazards, influenced by coastal geomorphology, geographical location
and adaptation action


________________________________

maybe tell folks not to move there and build cities??

well, stay at least a couple meters above current sea level

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 09:49:42 AM

You probably have noticed the new verbiage on this issue is less "It's going to get hotter" to "Extreme events are becoming more common."

It is a new selling tactic.  It's also largely false, or at least, it is more true that known cycles dominate this extreme event story, like La Nina.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 10:05:58 AM

I love people who are only skeptical about things they don't agree with.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 10:10:38 AM

What about folks who post bizarre hyperbole about the future of Florida?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 10:13:13 AM

Climate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now | UNFCCC (https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now)

According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.

Today’s report also shows current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. This is an improvement over last year’s assessment (https://unfccc.int/news/cop26-update-to-the-ndc-synthesis-report), which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

Last year’s analysis showed projected emissions would continue to increase beyond 2030. However, this year's analysis shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2018 report indicated that CO2 emissions needed to be cut 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. The latest science (https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/) from the IPCC released earlier this year uses 2019 as a baseline, indicating that GHG emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030. This is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.


Bear in mind that countries are also not getting close to meeting their promises anyway.  It's a lot easier to have some meeting at some resort and agree to some future commitment than actually meet said commitment.  Then folks post things like the above.  IT's NOT ENOUGH!!!!  Of course it's not, nor are the commitments being met anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 10:14:35 AM

Climate Change: World isn't doing nearly enough, UN report says (usatoday.com) (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/12/02/global-warming-world-not-doing-nearly-enough-un-report/6476363002/)

• Five years since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the world is still far from meeting its climate goals.
• The report measures the gap between Paris Agreement goals and countries’ planned production of coal, oil and gas.
• COVID-19 recovery funds have been disproportionately allocated to fossil fuel development.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2023, 11:03:41 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 10:10:38 AM

What about folks who post bizarre hyperbole about the future of Florida?

Admittedly, I started that. OAM just ran with it. 

And it was a reprise of a discussion that we had weeks ago after I'd found an article discussing that ice sheets could potentially move in the sea much more quickly than previous estimates and how that could affect the West Antarctic (IIRC) ice sheet. Which could raise sea level by 3.3m itself if it slid into the sea. Given that we've discussed how much of Florida (at least the highly populated areas) are below that level, it's a pretty massive economic dislocation if it were to happen. 

However, at this time it's not seriously projected by any scientists that it WILL happen within hundreds of years. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 31, 2023, 11:05:12 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 10:05:58 AM

I love people who are only skeptical about things they don't agree with. 

considering skeptical means you dont agree most of us fall into this catagory

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 11:13:50 AM

The entire West Antarctic ice sheet could slide into the sea

I suppose anything "could" happen

Seems highly improbable to me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 11:43:34 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 11:13:50 AM

The entire West Antarctic ice sheet could slide into the sea

I suppose anything "could" happen

Seems highly improbable to me

What's that improbability based on?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 11:45:03 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 09:48:00 AM

TS.C.5.2 The exposure of many coastal populations and
associated development to sea level rise is high, increasing risks,
and is concentrated in and around coastal cities and settlements
(virtually certain). High population growth and urbanisation in
low-lying coastal zones will be the major driver of increasing exposure
to sea level rise in the coming decades (high confidence). By 2030, 108–
116 million people will be exposed to sea level rise in Africa (compared
to 54 million in 2000), increasing to 190–245 million by 2060 (medium
confidence). By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying
cities and settlements will be at risk from coast-specific climate
hazards, influenced by coastal geomorphology, geographical location
and adaptation action


________________________________

maybe tell folks not to move there and build cities??

well, stay at least a couple meters above current sea level

Is this a serious post?  The hell?
.
Hey idiots in Somalia!  There's no food there.  Just move!  Sea levels are rising, don't move there!  
Yet what did we do in New Orleans?  Mourn.  Rebuild.  On a major river.  Below sea level.  Near the sea.

.
Your post is what dipshits say.  I'm not calling you that.  I just think you should know that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 11:46:36 AM

well, you think people moving to the desert is foolish

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 11:47:22 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 11:46:36 AM

well, you think people moving to the desert is foolish

And he lives in one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 11:48:34 AM

It is!
It's stupid I was put in a position to have to move here.  
.
I guess I should have just "not moved here" and gotten a job in FL at McDonalds or something.  Or been homeless.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 11:49:25 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 11:47:22 AM

And he lives in one.

Thanks, Capt Obvious.  
I guess you get to be the "translate the post meaning for the extreme elderly bunch" guy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 11:50:22 AM

I'm reminded that I need to lower my expectations of everybody and just relax.  
I apologize.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 11:58:35 AM

I stated above... if the sea level is going to raise and it's not debatable. Why not encourage folks to not move there and build large cities?

same could be said for climate change in Arizona.  If the weather is going to get hotter and with less water, why not warn people about this and encourage them to not die of thirst?

instead of letting a few more million move there and then pay to relocate them later when things become dire

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 12:00:58 PM

as you said,

I always hear about the cost of trying to be proactive (decades too late), but no one mentions the cost of being reactive.

At least you're choosing the "when" and the "how much," however radical it may seem, when attempting to be proactive.
The problem with being reactive is that you have no say of "when" or "how much."


____________________________________

I'm actually agreeing with you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:01:06 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 11:58:35 AM

I stated above... if the sea level is going to raise and it's not debatable. Why not encourage folks to not move there and build large cities?

same could be said for climate change in Arizona.  If the weather is going to get hotter and with less water, why not warn people about this and encourage them to not die of thirst?

instead of letting a few more million move there and then pay to relocate them later when things become dire

Well, because
a)  half the people living there won't believe you
b)  a majority of growth is babies being born, not people moving there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:02:55 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 12:00:58 PM

as you said,

I always hear about the cost of trying to be proactive (decades too late), but no one mentions the cost of being reactive.

At least you're choosing the "when" and the "how much," however radical it may seem, when attempting to be proactive.
The problem with being reactive is that you have no say of "when" or "how much."


____________________________________

I'm actually agreeing with you

The masses are dumb.  Everyone thinks they're the exception.  My post says no one mentions this good idea.  It's great that you're on board, but we're not enough.  :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 12:08:33 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 11:48:34 AM

It is!
It's stupid I was put in a position to have to move here. 
.
I guess I should have just "not moved here" and gotten a job in FL at McDonalds or something.  Or been homeless. 

Teachers are badly needed all over the country, including Florida.

Why were you in a position to have to move to a desert?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2023, 12:09:42 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 11:43:34 AM

What's that improbability based on? 

Um, the IPCC projections?

As I stated, right now scientists are NOT projecting that the West Antarctic ice sheet will collapse, and certainly not in a short-term time horizon. Climate change over a couple hundred years will melt more ice and have the effect of significant sea level rise if not addressed. But climate scientists are not saying it will happen quickly or soon. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:10:02 PM

I think it is more useful to avoid the simple minded hyperbole we see in movies that is not part of any technical assessment of the risk.  We can bandy about notions like Orlando being a port city, but to me, it's not a serious discussion.  And sure, we COULD experience something rapid and dramatic with ice sheets at some point, that isn't something scientists are projecting in the next few decades, at least today.

That all is aside to the clear fact that we are not meeting our commitments, and the commitments are not enough anyway, and "we" aren't going to meet them.  Ergo, perhaps we should try and be realistic about all of this.  Instead, we have one "side" saying "we're gonna drown" and the other saying "this is all hooey, don't worry at all".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:11:08 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:02:55 PM

The masses are dumb. 

People who think they are smart think the masses are dumb, but in fact, the masses average average intelligence.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:20:10 PM

People who are genuinely smart are going to find average intelligence pretty dumb.  
That's nothing to do with any one of us, it's just a fact.  
Conversely, stupid people will find average intelligence as seeming smart.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:21:05 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:10:02 PM

I think it is more useful to avoid the simple minded hyperbole we see in movies that is not part of any technical assessment of the risk.  We can bandy about notions like Orlando being a port city, but to me, it's not a serious discussion. 

Jesus Christ, I picked Orlando because it's a non-coastal Florida city people know.  It wasn't a precisely-measured attempt at hyperbole.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 12:21:59 PM

California residents can no longer submit applications for home and business insurance to State Farm.

The new policy went into effect May 27, but it does not impact personal car insurance. The company will continue to service existing clients for their home and business insurance. This means clients can make claims on property already covered by their insurance.


“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market,” State Farm said in a press release. “It’s necessary to take these actions now to improve the company’s financial strength. We will continue to evaluate our approach based on changing market conditions.”


In 2021, State Farm was the largest insurance provider in California collecting over $7.2 billion in premiums, but the company suffered a loss of $4 billion.

In addition to covering repairs made to personal property, insurance companies may also be required to cover living expenses for those displaced, according to the California Department of Insurance.

Wildfire firefighting agencies responded to 7,396 fires that burned 2,569,386 acres in California in 2021.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:23:06 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:21:05 PM

Jesus Christ, I picked Orlando because it's a non-coastal Florida city people know.  It wasn't a precisely-measured attempt at hyperbole. 

Yeah, and it was nonserious and dumb and contributed nothing positive to any discussion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2023, 12:23:21 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:11:08 PM

People who think they are smart think the masses are dumb, but in fact, the masses average average intelligence.

And honestly, are the masses really all that dumb? 

I think I'm pretty smart. I'm working on planning out my future life. Thinking about investment and my retirement, considering where I might or might not live if I choose to leave CA, trying to plan my career, etc etc.

If I had an amazing job opportunity in Miami, and everything personally would also line up, I wouldn't let concern about sea levels in 2100 stop me from accepting it. It's just on too long of a time horizon given that I'd be 122 years old in 2100, so I highly doubt I'll see it. And even if somehow I did live that long, I'm sure I would have signs well before then that would say "get the hell out of FL" and get ahead of it before it was underwater. 

Would you call me dumb if I moved to FL? I doubt it, because you'd be implicitly calling a bunch of posters on this board dumb for choosing to live there. Do we call OAM dumb for living in the desert? No, because clearly he had a job opportunity that made sense for him on a personal level. 

It can simultaneously be stupid to have a giant city in the middle of the desert relying on imported water to survive, and smart for individual people to move to that city. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:23:32 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 12:08:33 PM

Teachers are badly needed all over the country, including Florida.

Why were you in a position to have to move to a desert?

Ummm out of college, there were zero teaching jobs in FL.  They were pink-slipping everyone and only hiring back some people.  Each job opening had like 40 applicants, and I had no experience.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 12:24:26 PM

back more than a few decades ago

some folks spoke about the San Andreas Fault and part of Cali breaking off the continent and there being new coastal cities

some of that might just have been wishful thinking

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:25:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:23:06 PM

Yeah, and it was nonserious and dumb and contributed nothing positive to any discussion.

lol, sorry I didn't find the predicted sea level rise and then search through a list of FL cities by elevation to make sure I looked serious and smart to you.

Someone done pissed in your Cheerios.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:25:10 PM

I think there is an often tendency to "look down on the masses" which I take as folks thinking they are mentally superior to "the masses", who shop at Walmart and bought Bud Light before they didn't, and drive pickups, and are generally not behaving like some college grad living in NYC thinks they should behave.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:25:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 12:24:26 PM

back more than a few decades ago

some folks spoke about the San Andreas Fault and part of Cali breaking off the continent and there being new coastal cities

some of that might just have been wishful thinking

That's from the original Superman movie.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:25:51 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:25:03 PM

lol, sorry I didn't find the predicted sea level rise and then search through a list of FL cities by elevation to make sure I looked serious and smart to you.

Someone done pissed in your Cheerios.

Not hardly, you just constantly post idiotic false twaddle and then get mad when I call you on it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:26:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:25:10 PM

I think there is an often tendency to "look down on the masses" which I take as folks thinking they are mentally superior to "the masses", who shop at Walmart and bought Bud Light before they didn't, and drive pickups, and are generally not behaving like some college grad living in NYC thinks they should behave.

You're so far off base here, it's amazing.  You're describing a culture war thing, not a simple bell curve of intelligence.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:27:31 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2023, 12:25:51 PM

Not hardly, you just constantly post idiotic false twaddle and then get mad when I call you on it.

It's not false if it's pulled from the air.  It's my fault, I should know better.  You're going to assume it's anything other than what I intended.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 12:28:19 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:25:29 PM

That's from the original Superman movie.

it was long before the 1989 world series

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:32:25 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2023, 12:23:21 PM

And honestly, are the masses really all that dumb?

I think I'm pretty smart. I'm working on planning out my future life. Thinking about investment and my retirement, considering where I might or might not live if I choose to leave CA, trying to plan my career, etc etc.

If I had an amazing job opportunity in Miami, and everything personally would also line up, I wouldn't let concern about sea levels in 2100 stop me from accepting it. It's just on too long of a time horizon given that I'd be 122 years old in 2100, so I highly doubt I'll see it. And even if somehow I did live that long, I'm sure I would have signs well before then that would say "get the hell out of FL" and get ahead of it before it was underwater.

Would you call me dumb if I moved to FL? I doubt it, because you'd be implicitly calling a bunch of posters on this board dumb for choosing to live there. Do we call OAM dumb for living in the desert? No, because clearly he had a job opportunity that made sense for him on a personal level.

It can simultaneously be stupid to have a giant city in the middle of the desert relying on imported water to survive, and smart for individual people to move to that city.

How did you get that from any of my posts?
No, someone isn't dumb for moving somewhere in order to make a living.
It IS dumb that Phoenix exists in its current state.  And Vegas.  And LA.  And, and, and.
.
No, it's not dumb that it was initially settled.  It's dumb that we allowed these small river-side towns grown into metropolises.  It's dumb that we're having water issues for the 40 million people watered by the Colorado River that we're screwing farmers and trying to steal water from Natives on reservations we put them on.
.
Can any statement about a massive group NOT be internalized and made about an individual on this board?!?  IT'S NOT ABOUT YOU. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2023, 12:59:40 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:32:25 PM

How did you get that from any of my posts?
No, someone isn't dumb for moving somewhere in order to make a living.
It IS dumb that Phoenix exists in its current state.  And Vegas.  And LA.  And, and, and.
.
No, it's not dumb that it was initially settled.  It's dumb that we allowed these small river-side towns grown into metropolises.  It's dumb that we're having water issues for the 40 million people watered by the Colorado River that we're screwing farmers and trying to steal water from Natives on reservations we put them on.
.
Can any statement about a massive group NOT be internalized and made about an individual on this board?!?  IT'S NOT ABOUT YOU. 

What the hell are you talking about? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 01:33:58 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:23:32 PM

Ummm out of college, there were zero teaching jobs in FL.  They were pink-slipping everyone and only hiring back some people.  Each job opening had like 40 applicants, and I had no experience.

There are tons of jobs now. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 01:44:07 PM

because of climate change, duh!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 31, 2023, 02:34:34 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:25:29 PM

That's from the original Superman movie.

I'd like to buy some property in Otisburg.


(https://i.imgur.com/NqKzZlC.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on May 31, 2023, 02:46:25 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2023, 12:23:21 PM

And honestly, are the masses really all that dumb?

https://youtu.be/kkCwFkOZoOY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 03:02:43 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 01:33:58 PM

There are tons of jobs now.

Cool.
You want to pay for me to move my ass back to FL?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2023, 03:18:13 PM

nope, just sayin it's an option if you get thirsty

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 04:41:54 PM

That word means something very different if you're under 30.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2023, 05:02:29 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 04:41:54 PM

That word means something very different if you're under 30.

I gave you an answer in the other news thread.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 31, 2023, 10:57:48 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:32:25 PM

How did you get that from any of my posts?
No, someone isn't dumb for moving somewhere in order to make a living.
It IS dumb that Phoenix exists in its current state.  And Vegas.  And LA.  And, and, and.
.
No, it's not dumb that it was initially settled.  It's dumb that we allowed these small river-side towns grown into metropolises.  It's dumb that we're having water issues for the 40 million people watered by the Colorado River that we're screwing farmers and trying to steal water from Natives on reservations we put them on.
.
Can any statement about a massive group NOT be internalized and made about an individual on this board?!?  IT'S NOT ABOUT YOU. 

 Phoenix has numerous rivers and creeks coming out of the mountains with a number of reservoirs and water from the Colorado through the CAP canal. I think they bank a lot of that in aquifers. Phoenix's reservoirs on the Salt, Verde, and Agua Fria Rivers are pretty much full right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 01, 2023, 06:35:59 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2023, 12:23:21 PM

And honestly, are the masses really all that dumb?

I think I'm pretty smart. I'm working on planning out my future life. Thinking about investment and my retirement, considering where I might or might not live if I choose to leave CA, trying to plan my career, etc etc.

Hey there'e a horse running in the 5th out at the Big T - I think shows lots of promise

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2023, 10:00:11 AM

The world is about to experience its hottest year yet, UN warns (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/05/18/the-world-is-about-to-experience-its-hottest-year-yet-and-may-likely-surpass-1-5c-of-warming-un-warns-theres-no-return/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 10:08:57 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2023, 12:27:31 PM

It's not false if it's pulled from the air.  It's my fault, I should know better.  You're going to assume it's anything other than what I intended. 

What did you intend?  It in fact is false, and that you pulled it from the air is evidence for that.  You just make stuff up all the time, and then feel slighted any time someone says "Hey, that is not true.".

I prefer to stick to established facts rather than stuff pulled from thin air.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2023, 10:34:53 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2023, 10:00:11 AM

The world is about to experience its hottest year yet, UN warns (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/05/18/the-world-is-about-to-experience-its-hottest-year-yet-and-may-likely-surpass-1-5c-of-warming-un-warns-theres-no-return/)

wink wink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2023, 10:55:49 AM

I like Wink. They have some talent.

WINK News Team - WINK News (https://winknews.com/wink-news-team/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2023, 11:09:20 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2023, 10:00:11 AM

The world is about to experience its hottest year yet, UN warns (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/05/18/the-world-is-about-to-experience-its-hottest-year-yet-and-may-likely-surpass-1-5c-of-warming-un-warns-theres-no-return/)

Oh yeah, really? Hotter even than THIS?


(https://i.imgur.com/Y8yeRgD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 11:10:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2023, 10:00:11 AM

The world is about to experience its hottest year yet, UN warns (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/05/18/the-world-is-about-to-experience-its-hottest-year-yet-and-may-likely-surpass-1-5c-of-warming-un-warns-theres-no-return/)

Technically, this can't be the case, if we're including prehuman history. 

At its beginning, Earth was unrecognizable from its modern form. At first, it was extremely hot, to the point that the planet likely consisted almost entirely of molten magma. Over the course of a few hundred million years, the planet began to cool and oceans of liquid water formed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2023, 11:46:01 AM

another guess by experts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2023, 11:47:37 AM

Tropical wave Invest 91-L forms; new hurricane season begins (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/06/01/tropicaldevelopment/)

We need the rain.

(https://i.imgur.com/ell0hZ9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 12:34:10 PM

Climate paradox: Emission cuts could ‘unmask’ deadly face of climate change, scientists warn | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4028811-climate-paradox-emission-cuts-could-unmask-deadly-face-of-climate-change-scientists-warn/)

I can believe this, cutting burning of fossil fuels reduces aerosols in the atmosphere which block some of the sun's energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2023, 12:45:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 12:34:10 PM

Climate paradox: Emission cuts could ‘unmask’ deadly face of climate change, scientists warn | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4028811-climate-paradox-emission-cuts-could-unmask-deadly-face-of-climate-change-scientists-warn/)

I can believe this, cutting burning of fossil fuels reduces aerosols in the atmosphere which block some of the sun's energy.

So it's sort of like the prevailing science in medieval times-- having a nice crusty layer of dirt all around your skin helped protect you from the evil humors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2023, 01:03:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 12:34:10 PM

Climate paradox: Emission cuts could ‘unmask’ deadly face of climate change, scientists warn | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4028811-climate-paradox-emission-cuts-could-unmask-deadly-face-of-climate-change-scientists-warn/)

I can believe this, cutting burning of fossil fuels reduces aerosols in the atmosphere which block some of the sun's energy.

I'd restate this. We haven't really cut burning of fossil fuels. We've just made it cleaner by filtering out some of the associated pollutants, perhaps changing the mix of fuels we burn (i.e. NG instead of coal), etc. But we haven't cut.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 01:13:15 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2023, 01:03:07 PM

I'd restate this. We haven't really cut burning of fossil fuels. We've just made it cleaner by filtering out some of the associated pollutants, perhaps changing the mix of fuels we burn (i.e. NG instead of coal), etc. But we haven't cut.

We did actually during the COVID shutdowns.  That afforded the experiment to assess what reducing aerosols would do for solar radiance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2023, 01:21:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 01:13:15 PM

We did actually during the COVID shutdowns.  That afforded the experiment to assess what reducing aerosols would do for solar radiance.

True. And I suppose there's a time component. Cutting emissions overall will reduce aerosols faster than CO2 reductions, as they don't stay in the atmosphere as long. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2023, 01:26:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 01:13:15 PM

We did actually during the COVID shutdowns.  That afforded the experiment to assess what reducing aerosols would do for solar radiance.

The effects of that are still being felt, I'd think.

All of the empty office spaces around the country certainly thinks so. People are not driving as much as they did in the past.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2023, 01:28:21 PM

One recent study (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6) cast the well-known declines in air pollution during the COVID-19 pandemic in a darker light.
These cuts remain one of the only examples of successful cuts to climate-warming pollution, but the new study found that those pandemic-era cuts in air pollution led to a rise in global temperatures.
The findings, published on Wednesday in the journal NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, unveil a stark paradox at the heart of human-caused climate change.
It suggests that while cutting fossil fuel pollution is necessary for avoiding severe destruction over the long term — such cuts will make things noticeably worse in the short term.
The pandemic-era economic slowdown led to “a large-scale geophysical experiment,” study leader Örjan Gustafsson of Stockholm University said in a statement (https://www.su.se/english/news/measurements-reveal-the-impact-of-air-pollution-on-climate-and-health-in-southern-asia-1.651602).
That’s because the shuttered factories and power plants led to a corresponding crash in emissions.
Even so, not all emissions fell in the same way.
From a research station in the Maldives, an island archipelago off the coast of India, Gustafsson’s team detected that when pollution from smokestacks fell, so did concentrations of aerosols — tiny floating particles that hang in the atmosphere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2023, 12:55:21 PM

Why using rare metals to clean up the planet is no cheap fix | New Scientist (https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24933190-400-why-using-rare-metals-to-clean-up-the-planet-is-no-cheap-fix/)

He is neither a climate sceptic nor a fan of inaction. But as the world moves to adopt a target of net-zero carbon emissions (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2222386-could-your-home-be-net-zero-carbon-the-radical-plan-to-make-it-happen/) by 2050, Pitron worries about the costs. The figures in his book The Rare Metals War are stark. Changing the energy model means doubling the production of rare metals about every 15 years, mostly to satisfy demand for non-ferrous magnets and lithium-ion batteries. “At this rate,” writes Pitron, “over the next 30 years we… will need to mine more mineral ores than humans have extracted over the last 70,000 years.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2023, 01:50:49 PM

A pledge to fight climate change is sending money to strange places (reuters.com) (https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/climate-change-finance/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social)

ITALY helped a retailer open chocolate and gelato stores across Asia.

The United States offered a loan for a coastal hotel expansion in Haiti.

Belgium backed the film “La Tierra Roja,” a love story set in the Argentine rainforest.

And Japan is financing a new coal plant in Bangladesh and an airport expansion in Egypt.

Funding for the five projects totaled $2.6 billion, and all four countries counted their backing as so-called “climate finance” – grants, loans, bonds, equity investments and other contributions meant to help developing nations reduce emissions and adapt to a warming world. Developed nations have pledged to funnel a combined total of $100 billion a year toward this goal, which they affirmed during climate talks in Paris in 2015. The funding helped crown Japan and the United States as two of the top five contributors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2023, 01:12:39 PM

Fungi may offer ‘jaw-dropping’ solution to climate change | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4034986-fungi-may-offer-jaw-dropping-solution-to-climate-change/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2023, 01:32:41 PM

hoping for a breakthrough

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2023, 01:34:15 PM

Georgia nuclear rebirth arrives 7 years late, $17B over cost | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/georgia-nuclear-power-plant-vogtle-rates-costs-75c7a413cda3935dd551be9115e88a64)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2023, 01:48:15 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2023, 01:12:39 PM

Fungi may offer ‘jaw-dropping’ solution to climate change | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4034986-fungi-may-offer-jaw-dropping-solution-to-climate-change/)

Don't see anything even postulating a solution there... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2023, 01:51:27 PM

I didn't either, it could be that fungi absorb CO2, fine, but when it dies or gets eaten, it doesn't lock away the CO2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 05, 2023, 01:52:43 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2023, 01:34:15 PM

Georgia nuclear rebirth arrives 7 years late, $17B over cost | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/georgia-nuclear-power-plant-vogtle-rates-costs-75c7a413cda3935dd551be9115e88a64)

Yeah, my dad worked on that, but left after all the delays and Westinghouse came in.  He's one of the "experienced workers in short supply" and had to redo a lot of the other's work and just got tired of waiting around to get his tasks done.
.
The 20-25 year pause on US nuclear power is a problem.  All of the people who can do the job are either very old or have zero actual experience.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2023, 02:19:05 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2023, 01:48:15 PM

Don't see anything even postulating a solution there...

your jaw didn't drop?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 05, 2023, 02:44:53 PM

Jesus, $17 Billion over cost is outrageous.  Stunning.  I honestly don't see how you can f' it up that bad.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2023, 02:52:27 PM

It is, it was, and it will be, outrageous, but at least they did get finished, finally.  It's probably the most expensive power plant EVER.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2023, 03:38:04 PM

what could possibly go wrong with wind turbins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjnXpOMu09I

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 05, 2023, 05:15:15 PM

@ 2:20 - now THAT'S a smoke ring!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2023, 06:14:46 AM

Energy Department unveils plan using hydrogen energy to cut US emissions by 10 percent | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4035071-energy-department-hydrogen-cut-us-emissions/)

I wouldn't call that "a plan" at all, maybe there is more meat somewhere ,,,,

It also outlines a need to make hydrogen energy cheaper and to focus on regional hubs. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on June 06, 2023, 06:51:38 AM

Coal generated electricity could be used to split water into oxygen and hydrogen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2023, 08:11:19 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2023, 06:14:46 AM

It also outlines a need to make hydrogen energy cheaper and to focus on regional hubs.

"make cheaper" with tax incentives and govt subsidies 
"focus" - all about the focus

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2023, 03:09:30 PM

Climate study says it’s too late to save summer Arctic sea ice | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4037081-climate-study-says-its-too-late-to-save-summer-arctic-sea-ice/)

The research indicates that even under a scenario where carbon emissions are sharply curtailed, the Arctic will be “practically” ice-free in September by the middle of the 21^st century. The study’s projection goes even further than the warning (https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/) issued in 2021 by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which determined there is still a chance to save the summer ice in a scenario where warming is kept below 2 degrees Celsius.

The research is also more pessimistic about the speed of ice loss, predicting the loss of summer ice by the 2030s, as opposed to the IPCC projection of the 2040s under a high- or intermediate-emissions scenario.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2023, 03:54:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2023, 03:09:30 PM

Climate study says it’s too late to save summer Arctic sea ice | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4037081-climate-study-says-its-too-late-to-save-summer-arctic-sea-ice/)

The research indicates that even under a scenario where carbon emissions are sharply curtailed, the Arctic will be “practically” ice-free in September by the middle of the 21^st century. The study’s projection goes even further than the warning (https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/) issued in 2021 by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which determined there is still a chance to save the summer ice in a scenario where warming is kept below 2 degrees Celsius.

The research is also more pessimistic about the speed of ice loss, predicting the loss of summer ice by the 2030s, as opposed to the IPCC projection of the 2040s under a high- or intermediate-emissions scenario.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1e5HAZo4iw&t=472s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 06, 2023, 05:38:40 PM

Even if it takes hundreds of years, I'd just like for humans to live in harmony with nature.  Not obsessing over parts per million data or for some hippy reasons, just because it would probably be a beneficial goal.  Challenging.  But worth it.  
Maybe a lot more underground.
Maybe transportation by magnets.
Maybe living and farming where it's naturally green.
Maybe not needing so much power.
.
I think we're in the 'throw expensive idea shits around all 4 walls' stage of a possibly "greener" future.  We're not too sharp.  A lot of people want to help and help fast, but it's not a fast job.  A lot of people poo-poo the problem, which always happens with any big issue.  
Whatever "side" you're on, we're probably in the toddler stage of this thing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2023, 05:40:38 PM

We are in a "toddler stage", energywise, but some "experts" say we're in a crisis stage climatewise.  And there are 8 billion of us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2023, 05:53:57 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2023, 05:40:38 PM

We are in a "toddler stage", energywise, but some "experts" say we're in a crisis stage climatewise.  And there are 8 billion of us.

some of us feel there is no man made climate crisis and although many believe there is many more are simply using this belief for political purposes

and OAM is correct that its a shame we dont put our efforts toward something that would truely benefit the human race

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 06, 2023, 07:10:55 PM

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-again

Quote

Carbon dioxide levels measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory peaked at 424 parts per million in May, continuing a steady climb further into territory not seen for millions of years, scientists from NOAA and Scripps Institution of Oceanographyoffsite link (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/) at the University of California San Diego announced today. 

Measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) obtained by NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory  (https://gml.noaa.gov/)averaged 424.0 parts per million (ppm) in May, the month when CO₂ peaks in the Northern Hemisphere. That is an increase of 3.0 ppm over May 2022, and represents the fourth-largest annual increases in the peak of the Keeling Curve (https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/) in NOAA’s record. Scientists at Scripps, which maintains an independent record, calculated a May monthly average of 423.78 ppm , also a 3.0 ppm increase over their May 2022 average.

Carbon dioxide levels are now more than 50% higher than they were before the onset of the industrial era.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2023, 07:35:23 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 06, 2023, 07:10:55 PM

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-again

yes that lean mean 120 ppm will kill all humanity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2023, 07:36:21 PM

No

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2023, 08:58:06 PM

not seen for millions of years

who the F was measuring that back then?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 05:00:47 AM

CO2 levels in the past can be deduced from bubbles in polar ice.  One can argue of course that this is fraught with peril, folks do report it.

paleoclimatology - How were we able to measure carbon dioxide levels in earlier climates? - Earth Science Stack Exchange (https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/34/how-were-we-able-to-measure-carbon-dioxide-levels-in-earlier-climates)

I think a real danger is this "thing" spirals out of control somehow, permafrost melting for example, or stoppage of the Atlantic ocean current.  I have no idea how likely either is.  But if it happens, there isn't much humans could do about it, before or after.  Despite all the hand wringing and signing of commitments, we're flat out going to increase CO2 levels quite a bit from here.  Maybe with a lot of $$$ we can reduce that increase slightly, maybe.

If this were really really a "crisis", folks would be clamoring for nuclear despite it's bad image.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 07:57:17 AM

I'll just leave this here.

Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside China - MINING.COM (https://www.mining.com/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-china/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on June 07, 2023, 08:02:14 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 07:57:17 AM

I'll just leave this here.

Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside China - MINING.COM (https://www.mining.com/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-china/)

I guess the Chinese didn't get Obama's memo.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 08:09:12 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on June 07, 2023, 08:02:14 AM

I guess the Chinese didn't get Obama's memo.

Or Al Gore's, John Kerry's, Greta's or or or 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 08:20:18 AM

The Chinese (and Indians) have an actual incentive to blow out as much CO2 as they can up until 2030, when they both agreed to start cutting (whether they do or not is, well, who knows).  It's easier to cut from a higher level than if they started cutting now.  They might close down a few old Coal burning plants after 2030 to look "good".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 08:28:28 AM

Meanwhile, "they" say "we" can't have gas stoves. And now "they" are coming after gas furnaces.

The biggest threat to our country is our unelected fourth branch of government.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 08:39:59 AM

When I moved to Cincy in 1980, new construction was prohibited from using gas furnaces due to a shortage of NG.  

One proposed reg on furnaces would prohibit any that weren't "efficient" (condensing types).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 09:21:20 AM

We have no shortage of natural gas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 09:26:08 AM

we did in the early 80s

we had gasoline rationing in the 70s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 09:27:09 AM

"Have" being the operative term, they HAD one in Cincy back when.  Now, our house built in 1987 had an NG furnace, the restriction had been lifted by then.

It also had an "on demand gas water heater" (tankless) which turned out to be very finicky back then.  We even had two gas fire places.

We don't have gas here except for the large tank making hot water on the roof, which I find a bit odd.  Fortunately these heat pumps are very efficient.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 09:28:08 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 09:26:08 AM

we did in the early 80s

we had gasoline rationing in the 70s

Neither should have happened.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 09:28:40 AM

one reason I'm skeptical today about many tales of the sky is falling

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 07, 2023, 09:49:18 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 08:28:28 AM

Meanwhile, "they" say "we" can't have gas stoves. And now "they" are coming after gas furnaces.

The biggest threat to our country is our unelected fourth branch of government.

Heating in Texico is almost entirely natural gas.

Good luck going against the Oil and Gas guys.  If you think the defense contractors have a wealthy lobby and play dirty, well...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 09:59:41 AM

We used to do a lot of wind farm work. 

Our biggest client? 

BP.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 10:17:09 AM

Quote from: utee94 on June 07, 2023, 09:49:18 AM

Good luck going against the Oil and Gas guys.  If you think the defense contractors have a wealthy lobby and play dirty, well...

They ain't got nuthin' on the most powerfulest lobby evah.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 02:14:47 PM

Publication day! | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/06/06/publication-day/#more-30162)

If you get really interested in climate change perhaps ...

My new book Climate Uncertainty and Risk is now published!

Publication day! | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/06/06/publication-day/#more-30162)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 04:48:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 05:00:47 AM

If this were really really a "crisis", folks would be clamoring for nuclear despite it's bad image.

Remember, as OAM is wont to say, the masses are stupid. They're following their "side" and not actually paying attention to the science. 

What do scientists think? Well, here's a survey of the American Association for the Advancement of Science members (https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/23/elaborating-on-the-views-of-aaas-scientists-issue-by-issue/):

Quote

Building nuclear power plants
(https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2015/07/2015-07-23_AAAS-members-elaboration_09.png) (https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2015/07/23/an-elaboration-of-aaas-scientists-views/2015-07-23_aaas-members-elaboration_09/)
When it comes to nuclear power, there is a 20-point gap between AAAS members’ and the general public’s views, with the AAAS community more inclined than the general public to build more nuclear power plants. Fully 65% of AAAS members favor building more nuclear power plants, while 33% are opposed. Those figures are similar to the subsets of AAAS members who are Working Ph.D. Scientists and Active Research Scientists. By contrast, about half of Americans (51%) oppose building more nuclear power plants, while 45% are in favor.

A majority of AAAS members support more nuclear power plants, regardless of disciplinary specialty. Physicists and engineers are more strongly in favor of building more nuclear power plants than are those in other specialties. For example, 79% of all physicists surveyed and 75% of engineers connected with AAAS favor building more nuclear power plants. The views of Earth scientists are similar to those of all members; 66% among this group favor more nuclear power plants and 32% are opposed.

(https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2015/07/2015-07-23_AAAS-members-elaboration_10.png)

BTW of that group, 87% believed that warming was mostly due to human activity, and 77% said climate change is a "very serious problem". 

Which might explain why they're FAR more in favor of nuclear power than the general public. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 04:52:03 PM

AAAS members

comprised mostly of scientists?  or just experts?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 04:56:12 PM

I'm all in when it comes to nuclear power generation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 04:59:24 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 04:52:03 PM

AAAS members

comprised mostly of scientists?  or just experts?

They cover that. They split out some of the answers. 

Looks like it's mostly actual scientists. 

Where it doesn't seem to cover is what climate scientists specifically think about nuclear... I just did a quick google search to find this. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 07, 2023, 05:00:40 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2023, 04:56:12 PM

I'm all in when it comes to nuclear power generation.

(https://i.imgur.com/r6stwPJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 05:50:42 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 04:59:24 PM

They cover that. They split out some of the answers.

Looks like it's mostly actual scientists.

Where it doesn't seem to cover is what climate scientists specifically think about nuclear... I just did a quick google search to find this.

see if you can find out their justification for banning gas appliances

its probably related to banning nuclear power

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2023, 05:53:37 PM

I'm reading that book I cited, the parts available on Amazon (Chpt 1-2).  She offers her own history about all this, and discussion of risk and what the ideal climate might be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 06:02:17 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 05:50:42 PM

see if you can find out their justification for banning gas appliances

its probably related to banning nuclear power

You wouldn't know this because you didn't read the link, as usual...

...but there was no survey question about the AAAS and banning gas appliances.

So... No. Not going to find out their justification for a claim they didn't make.

----------

Edit... BTW the whole point of my original post is that they're IN FAVOR OF NUCLEAR POWER. They're not advocating banning it. 

Which you'd know, if you actually read anything anyone else posts. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2023, 07:15:36 PM

Nuclear is a great option, as long as you're not on a fault line.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 07:16:06 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 06:02:17 PM

You wouldn't know this because you didn't read the link, as usual...

...but there was no survey question about the AAAS and banning gas appliances.

So... No. Not going to find out their justification for a claim they didn't make.

----------

Edit... BTW the whole point of my original post is that they're IN FAVOR OF NUCLEAR POWER. They're not advocating banning it.

Which you'd know, if you actually read anything anyone else posts.

well I did know that smarty pants

I just thought you were searching for answers to climate things in general

BTW I do read most of what folks post except for you but I would have made an exception

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 07:23:42 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2f-MZ2HRHQ

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 07:29:32 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 07:16:06 PM

well I did know that smarty pants

You knew what? That the link I provided said that the scientists who largely believe man is responsible for global warming and that it's a serious problem, are also MORE in support of nuclear power than the general public? 

Then why did you say this? 

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 05:50:42 PM

see if you can find out their justification for banning gas appliances

its probably related to banning nuclear power

You accused the scientists I referenced of wanting to ban nuclear power when they were in favor of nuclear power. 

And you brought up a completely unrelated point about gas appliances because OTHER people than these scientists--and completely unrelated to these scientists--threatened to ban them. 

Have you once, in your life, argued a point in good faith? Or has it always been like this?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 08:14:30 PM

When I used the word they I was not refering to your article

sorry for the misunderstanding 

Im sure there a place reserved in Hell for me

youre so cought up in trying to attack me that you avoid any ability to have a meaningful discussion

I was putting forth an honest question about why do some climate change believers want to do away with gas appliances and nuclear power

it looks like they want to make sure theres nothing left to do but use electricity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 08:56:59 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 08:14:30 PM

When I used the word they I was not refering to your article

sorry for the misunderstanding

Im sure there a place reserved in Hell for me

youre so cought up in trying to attack me that you avoid any ability to have a meaningful discussion

I was putting forth an honest question about why do some climate change believers want to do away with gas appliances and nuclear power

it looks like they want to make sure theres nothing left to do but use electricity

Well when you replied to me I was assuming you were referring to my article--because that's what FF was discussing. I guess what we have here, is a failure, to communicate. 

You may have thought that you were putting forth an honest question about why do some climate change believers want to do away with gas applicances and nuclear power. And you replied to me talking about scientists (not "some climate change believers" but actual scientists) believe in climate change AND support nuclear power. Which made absolutely no sense to me, but you were replying to ME. Hence my confusion as to, well, your failure, to communicate. 

It all makes me think that you want to say what you want to say, but without actually meaningfully engaging with what others say or the evidence they supply. Hence, arguing in bad faith. Not interested in real discussion. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2023, 09:04:35 PM

duh

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 09:09:30 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2023, 09:04:35 PM

duh

Reasoned, adult, debate is difficult, OAM. 

Please try to demonstrate your ability to engage in such--which hasn't been evident to date--before you try to jump on my bandwagon. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 09:43:02 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 08:56:59 PM

It all makes me think that you want to say what you want to say, but without actually meaningfully engaging with what others say or the evidence they supply. Hence, arguing in bad faith. Not interested in real discussion.

sorry you feel that way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 10:29:12 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 08:14:30 PM

sorry for the misunderstanding

Im sure there a place reserved in Hell for me

well, you are a Texan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 10:48:19 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 10:29:12 PM

well, you are a Texan

live by the sword die by the sword

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 11:51:45 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2023, 09:43:02 PM

sorry you feel that way

Unlike you, I base things on evidence, not feelings. 

I see no evidence you're interested in honest debate.

In fact, everything you've posted so far suggests you're not interested in evidence, but rather that "it seems to you" that some arbitrary number is too small to have an effect. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 12:27:04 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 11:51:45 PM

Unlike you, I base things on evidence, not feelings.

I see no evidence you're interested in honest debate.

In fact, everything you've posted so far suggests you're not interested in evidence, but rather that "it seems to you" that some arbitrary number is too small to have an effect.

ok I get it 320 bad 

one thing to remember you should consider it a compliment that I wanted to have a conversation with you

No problem have a nice day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 12:52:01 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 12:27:04 AM

No problem have a nice day

Bless your heart. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2023, 01:50:34 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2023, 09:09:30 PM

Reasoned, adult, debate is difficult, OAM.

Please try to demonstrate your ability to engage in such--which hasn't been evident to date--before you try to jump on my bandwagon.

longhorn isn't big on evidence or actual dialogue.

DUH!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 06:58:53 AM

I think the core reasoning behind  ban on new gas stoves is "We have to DO something!", and that they can do fairly easily.  Does it make a difference?   No.  Does it save the planet?  No.  Does it make sense?  No.  But they are DOING something.

The nuclear power issue is a lot more textured in the political realm.  But IF CC is a major major threat, nukes really are the only practicable solution over the next two decades.  But it isn't practicable because of politics.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2023, 09:07:08 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 07, 2023, 10:29:12 PM

well, you are a Texan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4qcVrt-ozY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 09:33:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 06:58:53 AM

I think the core reasoning behind  ban on new gas stoves is "We have to DO something!", and that they can do fairly easily.  Does it make a difference?  No.  Does it save the planet?  No.  Does it make sense?  No.  But they are DOING something.

The nuclear power issue is a lot more textured in the political realm.  But IF CC is a major major threat, nukes really are the only practicable solution over the next two decades.  But it isn't practicable because of politics.

Yet another thing that didn't need to be politicized. 


After 48 Years, Democrats Endorse Nuclear Energy In Platform (forbes.com) (https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2020/08/23/after-48-years-democrats-endorse-nuclear-energy-in-platform/?sh=35f582385829)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 10:54:27 AM

Why the movement to ban gas appliances and heating systems?

We have a huge supply of NG and its cleaner then coal and cheaper then electricity

Makes no sense

Its almost like they want to remove any competition to electricity just to force their agenda
on the consumer

The Government should be promoting increased use of NG instead of trying to ban it

BTW there are over 140,000 jobs that would be lost

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on June 08, 2023, 11:07:26 AM

I don't know of any climate related issues for natural gas. Municipalities banning them makes some sense, because it is probably cheaper to maintain the electric line instead of the electric and the gas line. "Climate" gives some sort of moral cover for a dollars and sense change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 11:20:27 AM

𝗟𝗘𝗧’𝗦 𝗣𝗔𝗦𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗘-𝗕𝗜𝗞𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗧
The E-BIKE Act would offer a 30% tax credit of up to $1,500 on the purchase of new e-bikes. REI is urging Congress to make climate-friendly transport more affordable for everyone, but we can’t do it alone.
That’s where you come in: We need 30,000 people to take action so add your voice to join us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 11:36:32 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on June 08, 2023, 11:07:26 AM

I don't know of any climate related issues for natural gas. Municipalities banning them makes some sense, because it is probably cheaper to maintain the electric line instead of the electric and the gas line. "Climate" gives some sort of moral cover for a dollars and sense change.

Municipalities don't maintain gas or electric lines. That falls on the utility companies.

It is very rare that a municipality is also a utility.

How I know this? I have several utility companies as clients in Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 11:37:14 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 11:20:27 AM

𝗟𝗘𝗧’𝗦 𝗣𝗔𝗦𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗘-𝗕𝗜𝗞𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗧
The E-BIKE Act would offer a 30% tax credit of up to $1,500 on the purchase of new e-bikes. REI is urging Congress to make climate-friendly transport more affordable for everyone, but we can’t do it alone.
That’s where you come in: We need 30,000 people to take action so add your voice to join us.

Have at it. I'll sit home and watch the silliness.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 11:47:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 11:36:32 AM

Municipalities don't maintain gas or electric lines. That falls on the utility companies.

It is very rare that a municipality is also a utility.

it's not that rare for some small towns in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 11:52:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 11:47:09 AM

it's not that rare for some small towns in Iowa

That's what I mean by rare. The towns purchase power from a producer in those cases. The producer has no incentive to go into small towns that are very far from the grid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 12:04:28 PM

the munis usually get in the business to provide better service and lower prices than the incumbent provider

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 12:21:55 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 10:54:27 AM

Why the movement to ban gas appliances and heating systems?

Because burning natural gas releases CO2 into the environment and...

...ahh, screw it. Never mind. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 12:43:26 PM

Various locales are going increasingly to try and APPEAR to be fighting CC, we see it daily.  Their efforts are entirely for show, maybe some believe in them.  They'll go after low hanging "fruit" that is microscopic in nature of course.  But it will appease some voters who want them to DO SOMETHING.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 12:58:47 PM

natural gas releases co2 at half the amount of coal and 30% that of oil

it would seem logical to move in that direction until better energy sources can be fully utilized

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 01:03:32 PM

The CO2 generated by using NG is about half that of coal in generating electricity.  We really use very little oil to generate electricity.  They use it some in Hawaii for obvious reasons.  NG has some clear advantages in electrical generation when used as a peaker plant, which we'd need a lot of if we used a lot of solar and wind.

Coal is of course a lot dirtier cradle to grave.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 01:08:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 01:03:32 PM

The CO2 generated by using NG is about half that of coal in generating electricity.  We really use very little oil to generate electricity.  They use it some in Hawaii for obvious reasons.  NG has some clear advantages in electrical generation when used as a peaker plant, which we'd need a lot of if we used a lot of solar and wind.

Coal is of course a lot dirtier cradle to grave.

so why are some folks wanting to kill the NG industry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 01:10:07 PM

Because burning natural gas releases CO2 into the environment and...

...ahh, screw it. Never mind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 01:10:44 PM

Some object to fracking, and more object to half not being zero.  They think we can flip a switch somehow magically.

Politicians do things for political reasons, duh, not because they really make any sense.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 01:11:31 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 01:10:07 PM

Because burning natural gas releases CO2 into the environment and...

...ahh, screw it. Never mind.

that seems to be in bad faith

ahh screw it never mind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 01:12:58 PM

I have a notion that folks on both sides of this issue would struggle to write a coherent paragraph defining the issue, and even more so on any practicable solution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 01:13:41 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/LEHU51B.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 01:46:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 01:03:32 PM

The CO2 generated by using NG is about half that of coal in generating electricity.  We really use very little oil to generate electricity.  They use it some in Hawaii for obvious reasons.  NG has some clear advantages in electrical generation when used as a peaker plant, which we'd need a lot of if we used a lot of solar and wind.

Coal is of course a lot dirtier cradle to grave.

But the point of banning NG appliances in new construction is different than NG vs coal vs oil. 

It's that today, we might have a mix in our electrical generation in geographic area X of 25% coal, 30% NG, 40% nuke and 5% renewables. 

20 years from now, that balance might be 0% coal, 25% NG, 50% nuke and 25% renewables. 

If you install an electric stove in a house, that stove has now seen its CO2 emissions involved in its use drop IMMENSELY over 20 years because the electricity used to power it is cleaner. 

But if you install a NG stove in that house, its CO2 emissions involved in its use are the same in 20 years as they are right now. Cleaning up electrical generation has no benefit to the NG stove's emissions.

You can't make a NG stove environmentally cleaner over time, but you CAN make electricity generation cleaner over time, and if the stove is electric, the benefit cascades down. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 01:51:25 PM

I have a very expensive induction stove. You simply cannot cook on it like you could on a gas stove. 

Every Chinese restaurant would be out of business...

Electric oven rocks over gas. Much better at holding temps.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 02:07:38 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 01:46:20 PM

But the point of banning NG appliances in new construction is different than NG vs coal vs oil.

It's that today, we might have a mix in our electrical generation in geographic area X of 25% coal, 30% NG, 40% nuke and 5% renewables.

20 years from now, that balance might be 0% coal, 25% NG, 50% nuke and 25% renewables.

If you install an electric stove in a house, that stove has now seen its CO2 emissions involved in its use drop IMMENSELY over 20 years because the electricity used to power it is cleaner.

But if you install a NG stove in that house, its CO2 emissions involved in its use are the same in 20 years as they are right now. Cleaning up electrical generation has no benefit to the NG stove's emissions.

You can't make a NG stove environmentally cleaner over time, but you CAN make electricity generation cleaner over time, and if the stove is electric, the benefit cascades down.

and that would be great if it actually solved our preceived global warming problem but you could replace every NG appliance immediately and it wouldnt make a dent as far as the world is concerned

it would just cost me more money

Here in the US I gave up using a cheeper energy source but the world has not and shows no sign of doing so

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 02:13:36 PM

We also have induction, both of us have had gas in the past, and much prefer induction.  It is pricey, and worth it.  It also doesn't heat up the kitchen in summer like gas or resistance.  It heats faster than gas and is very controllable, if something boils and you turn it down, it goes down immediately.  But folks generally don't know enough about it.

If these gas stove ban people would just send out info on induction, that would be OK with me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 02:19:09 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 01:51:25 PM

I have a very expensive induction stove. You simply cannot cook on it like you could on a gas stove.

Every Chinese restaurant would be out of business...

I don't have enough experience with induction to form an opinion. I definitely prefer gas to traditional electric. So I get the anger at an attempt to ban them, since most people can't afford those expensive induction stoves anyway. I sure as hell don't want an electric stove. They suck. 

And that anger is what allows right-wing media sources to turn their base into such a frothing mess that they interject gas stoves into a civil discussion about whether people who believe climate change is human-caused and a major problem are in favor or opposed to nuclear power. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2023, 02:24:38 PM

You can have my gas cooktop when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers.

Or, when you provide me an expensive induction one free of charge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 02:26:03 PM

most folks are not skilled at debate, argument, or discussion 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 02:26:23 PM

Gas is way better than resistance cooktops, I agree.  Badge and I obviously think induction is worth the extra money.  Every time I boil water for noodles I think about this.

Our Bosch induction stove was about $3200.  Meile makes one in the $7500 range.  Ha.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 02:26:37 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 02:26:03 PM

most folks are not skilled at debate, argument, or discussion

They are so ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 02:27:55 PM

my electric glass cooktop is good enuff for me
it get's plenty hot
I only hope it doesn't need to be replaced before I do

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 02:29:18 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/iPvBCwu.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 02:33:14 PM

I rarely boil water for noodles
or rice

I rarely boil water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 02:34:36 PM

It's really not all that tough ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 02:37:04 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 02:26:23 PM

Gas is way better than resistance cooktops, I agree.  Badge and I obviously think induction is worth the extra money.  Every time I boil water for noodles I think about this.

Our Bosch induction stove was about $3200.  Meile makes one in the $7500 range.  Ha.

It is worth the extra money if your only choice is electric. Traditional electric stoves, as B.R.A.D. stated, absolutely suck.

I don't put my cast iron on the induction. I go outside and use an infrared butane stove. It gets blazing hot.

We're eventually going to have another propane tank buried, probably 350-400 gallons, to supplement the one we already have. At that time, I'm probably making the switch from Induction back to gas.


Wolf AHP848-LP Achiever Liquid Propane 48" 8 Burner Countertop Range - 220,000 BTU (webstaurantstore.com) (https://www.webstaurantstore.com/wolf-ahp848-lp-achiever-liquid-propane-48-8-burner-countertop-range-220-000-btu/950AHP848L.html?utm_source=shopzilla&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=950AHP848L&utm_campaign=restaurant_equipment_connexity_pla&cnxclid=5ca5cf0ef7261192c5e8ab8ce8b2f791)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 02:37:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 02:33:14 PM

I rarely boil water for noodles
or rice

I rarely boil water

I can give you a recipe for boiling water if you like.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 02:58:09 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2023, 02:37:35 PM

I can give you a recipe for boiling water if you like.

no need

not a huge fan of boiled food
don't eat much pasta
save my carbs for beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 03:01:30 PM

Very hazy around here today, Canadian smoke I reckon ... not as bad as NYC.  I run on that track around the softball fields.  Usually.

(https://i.imgur.com/j7QJJgf.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on June 08, 2023, 03:03:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 12:43:26 PM

Various locales are going increasingly to try and APPEAR to be fighting CC, we see it daily.  Their efforts are entirely for show, maybe some believe in them.  They'll go after low hanging "fruit" that is microscopic in nature of course.  But it will appease some voters who want them to DO SOMETHING.

Not limited to climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 03:09:52 PM

Sure, it's a political approach to nearly all our issues, national debt, gun control, defense, immigration ... find some small item somewhere and make it into a mole hill, er, mountain, and then pretend to DO something about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 03:35:54 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 02:26:03 PM

most folks are not skilled at debate, argument, or discussion

That is true. 

And most make it worse by holding opinions w/o knowledge. 

"Most folks", or as OAM calls them "the masses", have a knowledge level on climate change that can be expressed thusly:


(https://media.tenor.com/tf54fQ4nyBIAAAAC/ozark-ruth.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 03:41:43 PM

And that's why, when I replied as I did when CD said that if this was really a "crisis", that everyone would be screaming for more nuclear power. 

I don't trust "the masses" to do so. Because half of them don't think climate change is a problem--if they even believe it exists or is caused by man. And the other half are scared of nuke and apply NO economic reasoning to it, just thinking we can manufacture clean energy freely out of unicorn farts, and if that doesn't work, we'll just "make the rich pay their fair share" and it'll all be fine. 

So I didn't want to reply by using the opinions of these folks:

(https://media.tenor.com/bmWdLugpFmwAAAAd/blazing-saddles.gif)

Instead, I posted the opinions of ACTUAL SCIENTISTS. People who should both be smart enough to have an informed opinion on whether it's a problem, and also smart enough to realize that "hope & change" isn't a strategy to solve it. 

And you know what? They overwhelmingly believe it's happening, it's caused by us, and it's a significant problem. And as such, they are FAR more in favor of nuclear energy than "the masses". In short, their position appears to be consistent that we have to solve this and that nuclear is probably going to have to be part of that solution. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 03:48:17 PM

There is a pretty strong "anti-expert" population in the US today, there's been one for a while, but I think with the Internet etc. it's getting stronger.  We all grant experts can be wrong, but they are wrong a lot less often than non-experts, in my view, on the topic of their expertise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2023, 04:03:26 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 03:48:17 PM

There is a pretty strong "anti-expert" population in the US today, there's been one for a while, but I think with the Internet etc. it's getting stronger.  We all grant experts can be wrong, but they are wrong a lot less often than non-experts, in my view, on the topic of their expertise.

I think it's tough for the public to trust "experts" when their "expertise" is so commonly horse-traded for political reasons. 

COVID is a very real and very recent example of this.  There were "experts" on both sides, but only one side insisted that if you didn't blindly follow them and fall in behind them in lock-step, you were some kind of anti-science rube who might as well just believe in witch doctoring shamanism.  They brayed the loudest and, as it turns out, made some significant mistakes.

It's pretty easy to see why something like climate change could be viewed with skepticism, when it's a lot of the same loud-mouthed dipshits insisting if you're not 100% on-board with them, then you're the equivalent of the devil.

And I say that as someone that does believe climate change is real, it's a problem, and it's man-made.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 04:06:35 PM

I find often the so called experts that make a splash in the media are not the "real" experts on a topic.  They are featured because they will convey the political narrative, not because they are actually scientiifically accepted experts.  You can always find an "expert" to validate what you want to be true.  

The tough thing is listening to experts who tell you things you don't want to be true.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2023, 04:17:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2023, 04:06:35 PM

I find often the so called experts that make a splash in the media are not the "real" experts on a topic.  

When they carry the same credentials as a  "real" expert-- and they often do-- how is one to know?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 04:25:04 PM

I think they don't usually carry any real credential a tall

so, for lack of a real label, such as scientist or PHD or whatever, they are simply referred to as "experts" to gain a shred of credibility

when I see "expert" as a label, I immediately discount their opinion  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 05:42:11 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 04:25:04 PM

I think they don't usually carry any real credential a tall

so, for lack of a real label, such as scientist or PHD or whatever, they are simply referred to as "experts" to gain a shred of credibility

when I see "expert" as a label, I immediately discount their opinion 

The question, then, is who do you actually look to or trust for opinions on these matters, if you immediately discount experts? 

Bearing in mind that "nobody" is absolutely a valid answer--as we've already talked about "rational ignorance". I believe you only require knowledge of something if you plan to have an opinion and discuss/argue/debate it. If you plan to be a proud climate change agnostic, I totally understand and respect that. 

It's the people that have opinions--usually very loud ones--without knowledge that bother me lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 05:54:35 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 05:42:11 PM

The question, then, is who do you actually look to or trust for opinions on these matters, if you immediately discount experts?

Bearing in mind that "nobody" is absolutely a valid answer--as we've already talked about "rational ignorance". I believe you only require knowledge of something if you plan to have an opinion and discuss/argue/debate it. If you plan to be a proud climate change agnostic, I totally understand and respect that.

It's the people that have opinions--usually very loud ones--without knowledge that bother me lol...

I look for sources that have a real label such as scientist or doctor of...... or a list of credentials

nobody is my 2nd choice

very loud opinions w/o knowledge are the so called "experts"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2023, 05:57:44 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 05:42:11 PM

The question, then, is who do you actually look to or trust for opinions on these matters, if you immediately discount experts?

Bearing in mind that "nobody" is absolutely a valid answer--as we've already talked about "rational ignorance". I believe you only require knowledge of something if you plan to have an opinion and discuss/argue/debate it. If you plan to be a proud climate change agnostic, I totally understand and respect that.

It's the people that have opinions--usually very loud ones--without knowledge that bother me lol...

if you have two groups of experts telling you conflicting things which one do you believe

do you just go with the group having more experts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 08, 2023, 05:59:35 PM

the term expert is very vague and could mean something or nothing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2023, 07:09:51 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 05:42:11 PM

The question, then, is who do you actually look to or trust for opinions on these matters, if you immediately discount experts?

Like it or not, we're really highly dependent on 'experts'.  And there are fake ones, and experts can be wrong of course.  I go to a barber to get my hair cut because those folks are far more expert at it than I.  I call an electrician to do electrical work, a plumber, a construction company to redo the kitchen, all ostensibly experts at their craft.

I find an MD when I'm sick, and there have been times I have ditched an MD and found another.  I think I have a pretty reasonable doctor near us.  He diagnosed my heart flutter and sent me to another expert who fixed it.  If my car makes funny noises, I take it to an expert.  (That often stops the noise without doing anything else.)

I think the issue with things like Climate Change is we have folks with vested interests in terms of public policy.  And no, I don't personally think every climatologist (nearly) is in on it.  But if you read any of Judith Curry's book you'll see her stated experience in being misquoted, misattributed, thrown out with the bathwater after being hailed as a savant when she altered some views.  The intersection of science and public policy isn't going to be fun, with few exceptions.  Politicians aren't interested in truth, at all, and some "experts" aren't either.  The media basically play along because they want "clicks", not useful information.

My bet is a ton of real climate scientists loathe this whole situation.  Some like the public eye, even though everyone knows that we should really be listening to some 15 year old Swedish girl.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2023, 07:41:16 AM

I'm an expert.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2023, 08:27:10 AM

El Niño begins, bringing worse wildfires, droughts, floods and heat waves : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181086972/el-nino-has-officially-begun-heres-what-that-means-for-the-u-s)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2023, 08:58:48 AM

Reactionary and alarmist article is reactionary and alarmist.

For our part of the country, El Nino is a boon.  It brings more rain than normal, and we've been trapped in heavy drought since about 2018.  And with more rain, in our part of the world, comes cooler temperatures.

We love El Nino down here.  Bring it on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2023, 09:02:59 AM

I'm hoping for rain this morning

golf this afternoon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2023, 09:11:33 AM

Usually, when it's very hot somewhere it gets cooler somewhere else.  When it rains a lot somewhere, somewhere else is in drought.

I think it useful to know about El Nino and what it could portend for your local climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2023, 09:17:58 AM

It's good for here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2023, 09:43:58 AM

El Niño also exacerbates other effects of climate change. In the Northern United States and Canada, El Niño generally brings drier, warmer weather. That's bad news for Canada, which already had an abnormally hot Spring, and is grappling with widespread wildfires from Alberta all the way to the Maritimes in the East.

In the Southern U.S., where climate change is making dangerously heavy rain storms more common, El Niño adds even more juice. That's bad news for communities where flash floods have destroyed homes and even killed people in recent years, and where drain pipes and stormwater infrastructure is not built to handle the enormous amounts of rain that now regularly fall in short periods of time.


_________________________________________________ _______________________

so, dry is bad and wet is bad???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2023, 09:45:19 AM

Too dry is bad, too wet is bad, this we know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2023, 09:48:45 AM

didn't need a negative hit piece on climate change to tell us that

the silver lining was fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 09, 2023, 10:04:56 AM

Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2023, 04:17:12 PM

When they carry the same credentials as a  "real" expert-- and they often do-- how is one to know?

See who is funding their research. That will tell you all you need to know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2023, 10:07:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 09, 2023, 09:48:45 AM

didn't need a negative hit piece on climate change to tell us that

the silver lining was fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic

And more rain for Texico.

Like I said, we eagerly anticipate every El Nino cycle, it's really, REALLY good for us.

But I didn't see that anywhere in that climate hit piece.  The only mentions of rain were associated with "severe flooding."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2023, 12:31:03 PM

Welp.

Smoke Sends US Northeast Solar Power Plunging by 50% as Wildfires Rage - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-08/smoke-sends-northeast-solar-power-plunging-by-50-as-wildfires-rage?leadSource=uverify wall#xj4y7vzkg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2023, 12:30:44 PM

Ive been gone for the last 36 hours as a storm blew threw with 100 mph winds caused all hell with power lines 

my power was restored about an hour ago

at one time 250,000 were without power

attached is local coverage most of with was filmed in my neighborhood

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJvFlQ3i61Q

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 12:53:34 PM

Wow. 100 MPH? That's like a CAT 2 hurricane. How long did it blow like that?

Back around 12 years ago we had a derecho blow through, up North, packing 130+ MPH winds (CAT 4). That took power down for 7 days at our house. The storm lasted about 30 minutes.

July 2011 Midwest derecho - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2011_Midwest_derecho)

The seiche it produced lifted the docks of the stud poles in our marina, leaving them swing back and forth for hours. We could not get on the boat for about 3 days or so. Pretty powerful stuff. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2023, 01:09:29 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 12:53:34 PM

Wow. 100 MPH? That's like a CAT 2 hurricane. How long did it blow like that?

Back around 12 years ago we had a derecho blow through, up North, packing 130+ MPH winds (CAT 4). That took power down for 7 days at our house. The storm lasted about 30 minutes.

July 2011 Midwest derecho - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2011_Midwest_derecho)

The seiche it produced lifted the docks of the stud poles in our marina, leaving them swing back and forth for hours. We could not get on the boat for about 3 days or so. Pretty powerful stuff.

it was a very fast moving storm and may have had some tornadic activity

the high winds lasted for no more the 15 minutes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 02:00:35 PM

Well, glad you made it OK. Those storms are spooky and often come with little notice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 10, 2023, 07:48:50 PM

One thing that IMO really prevents the adoption of more nuclear power is the lack of disposal options.  I'm aware that Yucca Mountain got cancelled, and we could recycle a lot of it, but choose not to (France apparently recycles a lot).  So before we even broach building more, we need to decide how to dispose of what we've got.  

One of the last Nuclear power stations built in the US ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Texas_Nuclear_Generating_Station ) is built about 30-40 miles from my house.  It took 20 years or more to build.  I went to school with lots of kids whose parents moved here to work at "STP" or South Texas Project.  They moved here when we were in elementary school, and they finished the plant when we were in Jr High.  I'm sure there were people who worked there longer than that, but I do recall how many people worked there during construction.  

They were going to add on to it in the mid-2000's, but escalating costs and Fukishima incident got that stopped.  I do know that the Nuke plant is built literally in the middle of nowhere, nothing around it for at least 5 miles.  As a kid I just always assumed that all Nuke plants were built in the middle of nowhere, and then I saw TV shows featuring Nuke plants like right across from people's houses and they can see the domes from their backyard.  That's wild to me.  

I wanted to ask UTEE since he's (obviously) an EE.  I heard that even though the grid spans thousands of miles, the energy produced by generators needs to be consumed within a few hundred miles of where it's generated.  I knew there would be losses the further out they go and higher voltages can help off-set transmission distances, but what is the real story?  I just naturally assumed that you could easily build power plants hundreds of miles from nowhere and I never understood why they didn't build more like that.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 10, 2023, 07:50:22 PM

As far as the NG banning goes, my understanding is that the Feds (one or two people in various capacities with no real rule-making authority) wanted to ban NG more because of the indoor air pollution, not necessarily the CO emissions.  Some cities, like NYC, want to discontinue new connections to new buildings for CC reasons, but a few scientists in the Fed wanted to improve indoor air quality.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 10, 2023, 07:59:53 PM

Here is a satellite picture of the STP.  The closest "city" is Bay City, about 12 miles NE from the plant.  Wadsworth is a tiny town, about 7 miles away.  Very little in the immediate vicinity of the plant except fields.  The lake is the cooling lake. 

My former co-workers dad was high up in management there, and he commuted about an hour from Lake Jackson every day. 

https://www.google.com/maps/search/south+texas+project+nuclear/@28.789706,-96.1926554,62654m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu
(https://i.imgur.com/j9EOphq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 10, 2023, 08:06:49 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2023, 05:42:11 PM

The question, then, is who do you actually look to or trust for opinions on these matters, if you immediately discount experts?

Bearing in mind that "nobody" is absolutely a valid answer--as we've already talked about "rational ignorance". I believe you only require knowledge of something if you plan to have an opinion and discuss/argue/debate it. If you plan to be a proud climate change agnostic, I totally understand and respect that.

It's the people that have opinions--usually very loud ones--without knowledge that bother me lol...

I can find you some expert opinions that you will tell you a man can dress up as a woman and cut off their man parts and they're a woman.  So flame me all you want, but I think I'll vet my experts by a different criteria.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 10, 2023, 09:17:05 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 12:53:34 PM

Wow. 100 MPH? That's like a CAT 2 hurricane. How long did it blow like that?

Back around 12 years ago we had a derecho blow through, up North, packing 130+ MPH winds (CAT 4). That took power down for 7 days at our house. The storm lasted about 30 minutes.

July 2011 Midwest derecho - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2011_Midwest_derecho)

The seiche it produced lifted the docks of the stud poles in our marina, leaving them swing back and forth for hours. We could not get on the boat for about 3 days or so. Pretty powerful stuff.

That thing hit Columbus just in time for my three minute walk home from work. 

Oh man. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 10, 2023, 09:43:54 PM

Quote from: Gigem on June 10, 2023, 08:06:49 PM

I can find you some expert opinions that you will tell you a man can dress up as a woman and cut off their man parts and they're a woman.  So flame me all you want, but I think I'll vet my experts by a different criteria. 

Stay classy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 10, 2023, 09:48:33 PM

It would be neat to post nuclear plant images here, to see the variation.  Here's Port St. Lucie in FL, on the Atlantic coast.  

(https://i.imgur.com/byc7fz1.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 10, 2023, 09:55:10 PM

Diablo Canyon in CA.  I can't fathom building a nuclear plant in such an earthquake zone.  Super isolated, though.  

(https://i.imgur.com/Hrl6ILo.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 10, 2023, 10:15:10 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 10, 2023, 09:48:33 PM

It would be neat to post nuclear plant images here, to see the variation.  Here's Port St. Lucie in FL, on the Atlantic coast. 

(https://i.imgur.com/byc7fz1.jpg)

The fishing right there for Snook and Redfish is usually really good. ( left side of photo)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 10, 2023, 10:23:47 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 10, 2023, 09:43:54 PM

Stay classy.

Explain to me why you disagree. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 12:40:31 AM

As soon as you explain why you brought that topic onto this thread.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 07:33:48 AM

I view it as facile to point to some purported expert who claims, usually on TV, some position related to anything that seems clearly and obviously contrary to "common sense", whatever the topic.  In general, I'd opine anyone claiming to be a scientific expert who is often on "the news" likely isn't.  And when their claimed "expertise" is in some field which is not really scientific, well, have at it.

The fact that some folks are perhaps presented as experts on a topic like say "transition between sexes" doesn't mean there aren't real experts in the world with a useful perspective.  I noted previously the car mechanic, who if he's decent is an expert, on which many of us will rely.

Don't over generalize about experts.  Some do exist, and "we" have to rely on their collective expertise, unless we're willing to spend the time and effort to truly develop our own.  Usually, folks just find some quack expert that provides the opinion they want about some topic.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 08:40:06 AM

I'm an expert.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 09:22:10 AM

I used to be one in a couple of very narrow topics.  I think one item a true expert learns is how much expertise he lacks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 09:29:01 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 09:22:10 AM

I used to be one in a couple of very narrow topics.  I think one item a true expert learns is how much expertise he lacks.

Yep. It's not what you know. It's recognizing what you don't know, combined with having the ability to actually find the answer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 09:36:59 AM

I bring it up because there have been lots of experts over time that have been proven dead wrong. Thomas Edison was wrong about DC power being better than AC. Experts ( Dr’s) that claimed smoking was healthy. Medicines that have cleared all the FDA hurdles only to be later found out to have bad side effects. Military experts getting us into wars we cannot win.  

And while I tend not to dwell on this whole transgender craziness now we have all kinds of experts telling us what to think. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 09:42:41 AM

The fact that a lot of experts were wrong, doesn't mean they aren't usually right, nor can it mean they aren't correct about a specific topic.  And of course it has been other experts who have corrected earlier "expert" opinion.  Otherwise, one would just take whatever position is counter to expert opinion in every case, and that would not be a good idea.


(A contrarian view relative to "stock experts" can work though.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 09:43:55 AM

I find it very interesting that Harrison Schmitt, the only real scientist to have walked on the moon, has a different opinion on climate change that echoes a lot of other people. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#

Views on climate changeEdit (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Harrison_Schmitt&action=edit&section=6)
Further information: Scientific consensus on climate change (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change) and Global warming controversy (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy)
Schmitt has rejected (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial) the scientific consensus on climate change (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change), which states that climate change is real, progressing, dangerous, and primarily human-caused. He has claimed that climate change is predominantly caused by natural factors, as opposed to human activity. Schmitt has argued that the risks posed by climate change are overstated and has instead supported the notion^{[43] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-43)} that climate change is a "tool" used to advocate for the expansion of the government.^{[37] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-PlanetarySociety-37)}
He resigned his membership in the Planetary Society (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_Society) primarily because of its Mars-first policy,^{[clarification needed (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Please_clarify)]} but also because of its stance on global warming, writing in his resignation letter that the "'global warming scare' is being used as a political tool to increase government control over American lives, incomes and decision making. It has no place in the Society's activities."^{[37] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-PlanetarySociety-37)} Schmitt spoke at the March 2009 International Conference on Climate Change (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Conference_on_Climate_Change), an anthropogenic climate change skeptic event^{[44] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-44)} hosted by the conservative Heartland Institute (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heartland_Institute),^{[45] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-45)} where he said that climate change was a "stalking horse (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalking_horse) for National Socialism (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism)."^{[46] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-klein2011-46)} He appeared in December that year on the Fox Business Network (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Business_Network), saying that "[t]he CO₂ (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) scare is a red herring (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_herring)".^{[47] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-47)}
In a 2009 interview with far-right conspiracy theorist and radio host Alex Jones (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Jones), Schmitt asserted a link between the collapse of the Soviet Union and the American environmental movement: "I think the whole trend really began with the fall of the Soviet Union. Because the great champion of the opponents of liberty, namely communism, had to find some other place to go and they basically went into the environmental movement."^{[48] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-48)}
Schmitt co-authored a 2013 Wall Street Journal (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Journal) opinion column with William Happer (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Happer), contending that increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are not significantly correlated with global warming, attributing the "single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas" to advocates of government control of energy production. Noting a positive relationship between crop resistance to drought and increasing carbon dioxide levels, the authors argued, "Contrary to what some would have us believe, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet by increasing agricultural productivity."^{[49] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt#cite_note-49)}

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 09:48:17 AM

Sure, I can find plenty more "experts" who disdain climate change.  He's entitled to his opinion, but he's a geologist, his opinion is no more expert than my own (and I have looked at the Moon often).

(Incidentally, my own opinion is not at all in march step with the IPCC.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 09:54:41 AM

I’ll give you my opinion and observations.

I believe man-emitted CO2 is warming the Earth a little. I believe we don’t fully understand the consequences, both bad and good. I believe in the short term there is not much we can do about it unless we’re willing to give up most of the conveniences that we’ve come to rely on as a part of every day life. Things like air travel, personal transportation, our food, recreation, basically everything about living in the modern world.

I believe that science and technology will make baby steps towards reducing carbon emissions along with modest govt policies. I think it will be at least 100 years until the first world can reach net zero.  It will never happen in the third world. Unless there is some kind of driver ( cataclysmic event ) it will be very slow and not uniform. There may be technologies along the way, like fusion power, that will create more progress than govt intervention alone.

I do not think CC is the biggest threat to mankind, by far. I believe that will be AI, and ramifications of AI and how fast technology will evolve and become more concentrated in the hands of a few.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 09:56:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 09:48:17 AM

Sure, I can find plenty more "experts" who disdain climate change.  He's entitled to his opinion, but he's a geologist, his opinion is no more expert than my own (and I have looked at the Moon often).

(Incidentally, my own opinion is not at all in march step with the IPCC.)

The fact that you don't understand a geologist knows a hell of  a lot more about climate history than you or I puts your ignorance on full display.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 09:57:23 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 09:48:17 AM

Sure, I can find plenty more "experts" who disdain climate change.  He's entitled to his opinion, but he's a geologist, his opinion is no more expert than my own (and I have looked at the Moon often).

(Incidentally, my own opinion is not at all in march step with the IPCC.)

He’s a PhD from Harvard. He may not be an expert in climatology, but I’d say he knows a lot of things. I’m not saying the man is  right, but he’s not the only one. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 09:58:16 AM

Quote from: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 09:36:59 AM

And while I tend not to dwell on this whole transgender craziness now we have all kinds of experts telling us what to think.

You tend not to dwell on it, but of the literally millions of things you could have chosen, you landed on that one.
Either don't lie to us or stop lying to yourself.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 10:02:55 AM

I’ve stated it before on here, but I’ll reiterate. I used to work in a olefins plant. We burned more hydrocarbons in one hour, possibly in one minute, than I will burn in my entire life. Hell, I’d bet we burned more in one furnace ( we had 10) than I may burn in my entire life. Now I know it’s additive, and millions of people have an effect. But when I think about my own emissions it’s like the literal drop in the ocean.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 10:07:53 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 09:58:16 AM

You tend not to dwell on it, but of the literally millions of things you could have chosen, you landed on that one.
Either don't lie to us or stop lying to yourself. 

Frankly, I’m tired of hearing about it. I work for a big woke company, and they are very much into trying to indoctrinate all of their employees to their own ideas and beliefs. I throughly reject most of the current transgender and gay push, I wish the media would stop reporting about it, and I don’t mind telling you how I feel. Because a lot of us constantly tell each other how they feel. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 10:12:31 AM

Quote from: Gigem on June 10, 2023, 08:06:49 PM

I can find you some expert opinions that you will tell you a man can dress up as a woman and cut off their man parts and they're a woman.  So flame me all you want, but I think I'll vet my experts by a different criteria. 

Eh. I kinda take the Thomas Jefferson approach on this one. To paraphrase: "It does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are 57 genders or 2 genders. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg."

I know what gender I am. I really don't care what genders most of the rest of humanity are or claim to be.  

If Samuel is serious enough about his gender dysphoria to undergo transition, HRT, dress like a woman and tell me to call her Samantha, I'm gonna be respectful and call her Samantha. Only a jerk would argue with her. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 10:16:18 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 10:12:31 AM

Eh. I kinda take the Thomas Jefferson approach on this one. To paraphrase: "It does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are 57 genders or 2 genders. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg."

I know what gender I am. I really don't care what genders most of the rest of humanity are or claim to be. 

If Samuel is serious enough about his gender dysphoria to undergo transition, HRT, dress like a woman and tell me to call her Samantha, I'm gonna be respectful and call her Samantha. Only a jerk would argue with her.

I tend to fall into this space. Except for the megaphone tha is being constantly blasted in my face by the media and woke culture. I’ll be respectful to the person, but I don't have to accept their beliefs, and I damn sure don’t need to hear about it constantly.

Just go about your business, mind your own business, and we’ll be alright. Try to force beliefs on me, we’ve got a problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 10:19:45 AM

Quote from: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 09:57:23 AM

He’s a PhD from Harvard. He may not be an expert in climatology, but I’d say he knows a lot of things. I’m not saying the man is  right, but he’s not the only one.

The "problem" in my opinion is that usually lay people form an opinion FIRST and then seek confirmation of said opinion, which is not hard to find.  His opinion is no more of value to me than the thousands of climatologists who say otherwise, nor is their collective opinion determinative for me personally.  I do read summaries of what "they" profess is true.  I give it some weight.  I also listen to "climate deniers" who appear to have a rational and "expert" opinion on the topic, and folks kind of in the middle like Judith Curry.  And I have tried to read primary literature on the topic.  Try being the operative term.

It's easy, and facile, to simply point to whoever agrees with what you've already decided.  It's MUCH tougher to read all legit points of view and some literature and come to some kind of probably murky opinion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 10:22:34 AM

As for the gay thing, I've mentioned before we live in "Gay Central", one of the highest concentrations of gay folks in the country.  I almost never see PDA by gay folks when we're out and about.  Maybe the media focus on it unduly, but your average gay person from what I can tell is just going about his or her life.

"Atlanta’s original gayborhood, Midtown is the core of LGBTQ life in Atlanta. The intersection of 10th Street and Piedmont Avenue is considered the starting point for many LGBTQ visitors to the city. Not only is Midtown the cultural hub of Atlanta, it is also the home for gay nightlife in Atlanta and showcases just how diverse Atlanta’s LGBTQ community is."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 10:26:44 AM

Your right. It’s mostly coming from the media, both from the pro and anti crowds. The louder one group shouts, the louder the other group shouts back. I’m tired of all of it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 10:30:05 AM

If you effectively "turn off the news" in some sense, life goes on a lot better often as not.  I don't watch news, I do read it on line, it's faster, and I can ignore some item about what Taylor Swift did or said.  Some claimed the world would end when Trump was elected, some claimed that when Biden was elected, but in reality, life goes on in most ways.  (I know inflation has been bad, COVID was a shock, and a few other items).

I have to say I've learned to ignore or minimize most of the news these days, especially the items that are "social".  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 10:40:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 10:30:05 AM

If you effectively "turn off the news" in some sense, life goes on a lot better often as not.    

Exactly. If you don't like "the media", turn it off. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 10:49:45 AM

Moving on to the other news thread por favor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 10:58:26 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 10:40:28 AM

Exactly. If you don't like "the media", turn it off.

But then he can't gripe about it.
Claim he doesn't care one way or the other, but then lets the extremes on both ends irritate him to no end.
Some people who bitch about their arm itching need to stop rubbing themselves with poison ivy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 10:59:50 AM

I very rarely watch any news media beyond local TV news.  I can't stand Fox News and all the rest (especially CNN), so believe me when I say I try to limit my exposure to all the negativity and hype.  And yet I'm still tired of it.  

The only point I was trying to make is that there are lots of "experts" out there, and lots of bad information.  Which is why you really do need to try and gather as many facts as you can before you decide.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 11:02:16 AM

Quote from: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 10:59:50 AM

The only point I was trying to make is that there are lots of "experts" out there, and lots of bad information.  Which is why you really do need to try and gather as many facts as you can before you decide. 

I guess it was random chance that you took a left turn at Transgendered Albuquerque......ffs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2023, 11:03:45 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 10:12:31 AM

Eh. I kinda take the Thomas Jefferson approach on this one. To paraphrase: "It does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are 57 genders or 2 genders. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg."

I know what gender I am. I really don't care what genders most of the rest of humanity are or claim to be. 

If Samuel is serious enough about his gender dysphoria to undergo transition, HRT, dress like a woman and tell me to call her Samantha, I'm gonna be respectful and call her Samantha. Only a jerk would argue with her.

I agree 100%

The problem arises when schools start teaching it to our children

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 11:09:24 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 11:02:16 AM

I guess it was random chance that you took a left turn at Transgendered Albuquerque......ffs

We veer onto many topics on this board.  All over the place frankly.  Don't know why you got so knotted up about it.  

For the record I'm not anti-gay or anti-transgender.  I say live and let live, just don't try to indoctrinate me or mine with your beliefs.  I believe gay people should have the right to marry (they should be as miserable as the rest of us!), and live their best version of their lives as they see fit.  I think if they (adults) want to voluntarily change their body, go for it, I could care less.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 11:14:55 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 11, 2023, 11:03:45 AM

I agree 100%

The problem arises when schools start teaching it to our children

Teaching what to your children?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 11:18:46 AM

Quote from: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 11:09:24 AM

We veer onto many topics on this board.  All over the place frankly.  Don't know why you got so knotted up about it. 

For the record I'm not anti-gay or anti-transgender.  I say live and let live, just don't try to indoctrinate me or mine with your beliefs.  

If people are "out there" trying to indoctrinate you and yours, then isn't it on you if you're allowing yourself to be exposed to their message??
This is truly bizarre.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 11:26:18 AM

Get off this thread please.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 11:30:35 AM

I believe, for the most part, that the current culture wars are HIGHLY exaggerated, for political reasons.  It creates the "us v them" mentality that fills coffers of political candidates.  How often do teachers really try and "teach" gayosity to 7 year olds?  I imagine it happens here and there, but is it pervasive?  I doubt it.  How often do "drag queens" prey on children?  Again, I bet it happens, but is rare, not a broad problem.  But politicians can stir this up into more than a molehill.

On climate change, we're spending $37 billion a year now per that last bill.  I mean, sure, I think we could use it more beneficially as for CC it's irrelevant, optics, for show.  Maybe we could use it to improve schools on Indian reservations.  If you have cancer and are gonna die in a year, taking pills that cost a million bucks to maybe let you die a day later is silly.

All this burfle about Disney?  OK, don't go to Disney.  Bud Light?  I stopped drinking it (long long ago).  Nike?  Whatever.  I am better mentally I think mostly ignoring culture wars.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 11:33:31 AM

Please?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 11:34:23 AM

I will say about climate change that I disregard ANYONE who claims either "side" is entirely absolutely correct in every instance.  And any politicians who claim "the science ..." blah blah blah.  As well as anyone who claims it's impossible humans are altering our climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2023, 11:40:48 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 11:14:55 AM

Teaching what to your children? 

what transgender means and oh by the way are they themselves transgender also if so dont worry we wont tell your parents cause its none of their business

I also feel its wrong for biological males to compete in female sports and share dressing rooms

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 11:43:40 AM

Map Direct: Subsidence Incident Reports Map (state.fl.us) (https://ca.dep.state.fl.us/mapdirect/?focus=fgssinkholes)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2023, 11:45:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 11:30:35 AM

I believe, for the most part, that the current culture wars are HIGHLY exaggerated, for political reasons.  It creates the "us v them" mentality that fills coffers of political candidates.  How often do teachers really try and "teach" gayosity to 7 year olds?  I imagine it happens here and there, but is it pervasive?  I doubt it.  How often do "drag queens" prey on children?  Again, I bet it happens, but is rare, not a broad problem.  But politicians can stir this up into more than a molehill.

well good then no one will object when laws are passed to make sure it doesnt happen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 11, 2023, 12:12:31 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 11:18:46 AM

If people are "out there" trying to indoctrinate you and yours, then isn't it on you if you're allowing yourself to be exposed to their message??
This is truly bizarre.

Is your head that far up your ass-teacher?

How many, DAILY examples can you ignore before you admit that teachers, and legislators are exposing young children to these concepts, Against the overwhelming objection of the majority of parents. Laws are being passed or contemplated to bring minors into states to mutilate them if the are currently in a state that requires parental consent.
Laws are being passed or contemplated to punish parents who won’t “ affirm “ their CHILD’S gender identity.
You’re a piece of work.  “ live and let live”. But what you’re really saying is, live and let others dictate how you live- and don’t complain or question. 

I have never seen or met anyone with your level of hypocrisy and unimaginable lack of self awareness.  It is mind boggling.
you are criticizing GIGEM for making a point By bringing up a polarizing topic?
Nobody does that as often as you do. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 12:13:39 PM

Maybe we should stay on topic and let this one drop ...

It's nice here today, a bit of rain earlier, I have the doors open.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 11, 2023, 12:15:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 12:13:39 PM

Maybe we should stay on topic and let this one drop ...

It's nice here today, a bit of rain earlier, I have the doors open.

Or/ we could ban the idiot from adult conversation 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 12:15:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 12:13:39 PM

Maybe we should stay on topic and let this one drop ...

It's nice here today, a bit of rain earlier, I have the doors open.

No shit, eh?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 12:16:01 PM

In other news ... (cfb51.com) (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/in-other-news-18271/24332/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 03:45:41 PM

Quote from: Gigem on June 11, 2023, 10:59:50 AM

The only point I was trying to make is that there are lots of "experts" out there, and lots of bad information.  Which is why you really do need to try and gather as many facts as you can before you decide. 

Yes, and we talked about it earlier in this thread about how to evaluate competing information. I thought my post and CD's follow-up were both very good. 

But then people still say "experts, pfffftt!" and here we are. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 04:46:03 PM

I'm an expert.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 05:12:19 PM

I was too, but in fields so narrow as to be mostly irrelevant.  Most of us are like that, and have some understanding of how much we don't know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 05:14:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 12:13:39 PM

Maybe we should stay on topic and let this one drop ...

It's nice here today, a bit of rain earlier, I have the doors open.

Great day for golf today. Mid-high 60s and mostly overcast. Perfect to be not too hot. 

They say that this was one of the worst "May Gray" seasons in years, and now we're into "June Gloom", but I'll tell you, this is some of my favorite weather of the year. Mid-July to Mid-Sept can be a little too hot for my taste. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 05:14:25 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 04:46:03 PM

I'm an expert.

Pfffftt!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 07:59:26 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 11, 2023, 12:15:06 PM

Or/ we could ban the idiot from adult conversation

Wow, talk about falling on your own sword.
Bravo!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 07:59:49 PM

Weather
Climate
Environment
Energy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2023, 08:31:37 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2023, 05:14:09 PM

Great day for golf today. Mid-high 60s and mostly overcast. Perfect to be not too hot.

here too 

started this morning around 60 with a breeze - finished this afternoon about 75 and sunny

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 11, 2023, 08:36:47 PM

Feeling amazing in Phx…only 90.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 06:37:50 AM

From my NYT feed this AM:

With its open plains and thousands of miles of wheat fields, Kansas is one of the windiest states in the U.S. That makes it a great place for turbines that capture the wind and convert it into electricity. But too few people live there to use all that power.

So in 2010, developers started planning a large power-line project connecting Kansas with Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. They wanted to move the clean energy generated in Kansas, from both wind turbines and solar panels, to states with much bigger populations. That would let more communities replace planet-warming fossil fuels that have contributed to the kinds of wildfires and unhealthy air that have blanketed large swaths of North America this week.

Thirteen years later, however, full construction has not yet started on the project, known as the Grain Belt Express. Why? Because in addition to federal permission, the project needs approval from every local and state jurisdiction it passes through. And at different times since 2010, at least one agency has resisted it.

The Grain Belt Express is an example of a broader problem. America’s electrical grid is highly fragmented (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/MRonxcw79hnJ25nfMI3zmQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmaXRsP0T0aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8wNi8xMi9jbGltYXRlL3VzLWVsZWN0cmljLWdyaWQtZW5lcmd5LXRyYW5zaXRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMwNjEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTk0ODE0Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTM1MzIzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpkeGzvhmS-SW6rUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), as my colleagues Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer explain in a story that’s just published. That decentralization makes it hard to coordinate the large, interstate projects needed to connect clean energy to the grid.

One way to get at that problem is to do what experts call permitting reform. The issue has recently gained national traction, and President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican leader, discussed it during debt-limit negotiations last month. Local and state governments are considering changes, too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 08:57:19 AM

Biden’s plan to phase out gas-powered cars is all pain for consumers and no gain | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4041892-bidens-plan-to-phase-out-gas-powered-cars-is-all-pain-for-consumers-and-no-gain/)

A car maker could meet these standards with some advanced plug in hybrid vehicles, not full electric.  I think it calls for a fleet average of about 110 mpg equivalent, so we'd not be totally EV if these standards survived.  And of course used cars would remain ICE for a long long time.

Such standards tend to get, um, modified, as it becomes apparent they can't practicable be met.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 09:02:40 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 06:37:50 AM

The Grain Belt Express is an example of a broader problem. America’s electrical grid is highly fragmented (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/MRonxcw79hnJ25nfMI3zmQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmaXRsP0T0aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8wNi8xMi9jbGltYXRlL3VzLWVsZWN0cmljLWdyaWQtZW5lcmd5LXRyYW5zaXRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMwNjEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTk0ODE0Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTM1MzIzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpkeGzvhmS-SW6rUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), as my colleagues Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer explain in a story that’s just published. That decentralization makes it hard to coordinate the large, interstate projects needed to connect clean energy to the grid.

One way to get at that problem is to do what experts call permitting reform. The issue has recently gained national traction, and President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican leader, discussed it during debt-limit negotiations last month. Local and state governments are considering changes, too.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/05/06/buffett-on-clean-energy-push-this-country-should-be-ahead-of-where-it-is.html (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/05/06/buffett-on-clean-energy-push-this-country-should-be-ahead-of-where-it-is.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 09:09:33 AM

A lot of things should be, or should not be, but are not, or are ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 09:14:35 AM

if/when green energy becomes important enough to the majority hurdles and fences will be taken down to allow for change

until then we just have bickering and lack of progress

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 09:19:05 AM

We will always have bickering.  It's easy to bicker, and much tougher to DO something real ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 10:21:31 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 08:57:19 AM

Such standards tend to get, um, modified, as it becomes apparent they can't practicable be met.

Yes, especially when a politician conveniently sets a goal for half a decade to a decade beyond when they'd be term-limited out of the office. 

If the goal is aspirational and there are not short-term milestones that the politician commits to in order to show progress towards the goal, you know it's bull manure. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 11:01:42 AM

Been pretty hot lately here. Feels-like 105.

Need rain.

(https://i.imgur.com/0btAZfQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 11:06:55 AM

While we talk about government action, it's important to highlight that there are private actors in the market who are actually trying to achieve goals on their own.

There's an organization called the Science Based Targets initiative (https://sciencebasedtargets.org/), where companies will publicly commit to vetted emissions targets and a specified timeline, with the worst-case goal being targets that are aligned with the 1.5C warming level of emissions. 

My own company just announced last week that they're targeting 100% renewable energy by 2030, and to be net-zero in all of our scope 1 and scope 2 emissions by 2032. 

As I've (I think?) said before, part of it is the company trying to do a good thing, but another part of it is that our customers demanding that we reduce our emissions. Because in the emissions game, our emissions "flow down" and must be counted as theirs, so they need us to improve to hit their own targets. 

As is probably the usual case, we'll see private business start to make meaningful strides here on their own, and then when the time is right, the gov't will set a "standard" and claim victory like it was all Washington's idea in the first place. Effing pikers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 11:07:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 11:01:42 AM

Been pretty hot lately here. Feels-like 105.

Need rain.

(https://i.imgur.com/0btAZfQ.png)

Ew.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:12:22 AM

I recall clearly when my company declared that ALL our plastic would be compositable/biodegradable by 2000.  Those of us who were "experts" got a kick out of this.  So far as I know, NONE of their plastic meet that target today.  I was in  the middle of it, it was a fascinating area technically.  My boss told me it was absurd, but it's a job, and to do whatever I could and have fun.  I was spending money like crazy at times.  About 1995, all the projects just magically disappeared one day, and I was transferred (to another idiotic project I turned into a real product in time).

As noted above, it's pretty easy to set targets 5-15 years out ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 11:16:15 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 11:07:19 AM

Ew.

Kinda sticky.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:19:15 AM

I am back from throwing a rubber baseball against the tennis practice wall.  I got soaked with sweat though it's 74°F and cloudy.

I'm practicing my pitching lessons, they have helped.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 12, 2023, 11:19:57 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:12:22 AM

I recall clearly when my company declared that ALL our plastic would be compositable/biodegradable by 2000.  Those of us who were "experts" got a kick out of this.  So far as I know, NONE of their plastic meet that target today.  I was in  the middle of it, it was a fascinating area technically.  My boss told me it was absurd, but it's a job, and to do whatever I could and have fun.  I was spending money like crazy at times.  About 1995, all the projects just magically disappeared one day, and I was transferred (to another idiotic project I turned into a real product in time).

As noted above, it's pretty easy to set targets 5-15 years out ...

CD, May I ask what company you worked for?  PM if uncomfortable.  I'm just curious if we work(ed) for the same company (chemical company).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:36:43 AM

It was a rather large consumer products outfit in Cincinnati.  I worked in their R&D department, a good bit of that working with polymers of various types, usually of the  thermoset variety.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 02:59:18 PM

Our leaders cannot allow the Earth to become an unbearable hothouse | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4045544-our-leaders-cannot-allow-the-earth-to-become-an-unbearable-hothouse/)

Cannot?  Really?  This is the sort of nonfactbased crap I dislike.

Unless we take dramatic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the very existence of life on planet Earth will be endangered.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 03:07:52 PM

define endangered

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 03:24:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 02:59:18 PM

Our leaders cannot allow the Earth to become an unbearable hothouse | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4045544-our-leaders-cannot-allow-the-earth-to-become-an-unbearable-hothouse/)

Cannot?  Really?  This is the sort of nonfactbased crap I dislike.

Unless we take dramatic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the very existence of life on planet Earth will be endangered.

Yeah, agreed. I mean, the worst case scenario endangers the existence of 8B human lives living on this planet, and the worst/worst case scenario endangers the existence of any human life... 

But ALL life? Nah... The planet will slough off any damage we can cause given a few hundred thousand, maybe a few million, years...

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 03:07:52 PM

define endangered

Not saying this is likely, but endangered being "we f$&k up the planet's climate, affecting agriculture enough that we can't come remotely close to feeding everyone". And when the choice is between fight or starve, what do you think some of these countries are going to do? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 03:47:30 PM

endangered
adjective

in danger of being harmed, lost, unsuccessful

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 04:15:54 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 03:47:30 PM

endangered
adjective

in danger of being harmed, lost, unsuccessful

Yes, which is the worst case scenario of climate change. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 04:56:57 PM

it's vague enough that it could mean almost nothing or total extinction

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 05:02:26 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 04:56:57 PM

it's vague enough that it could mean almost nothing or total extinction

I assume then that you didn't click through to the article and read it? 

The article actually clarified what was meant by endangered, right after the line CD quoted:

Quote

It is not as if our descendants will just have to get better air conditioners and stronger sunscreen. Unless we take dramatic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the very existence of life on planet Earth will be endangered.
The U.N. tells us (https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/08/08/solving-climate-change-requires-fixing-forests-food-landmark-un-report-finds/) that the violent weather, which has become the norm today, threatens the world’s supply of food and clean water. In turn, global food and water insecurity poses a serious threat to America’s national security, according to the Center for Strategic & International Studies (https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-national-intelligence-estimate-climate-change-underplays-role-food-security). Indeed, hunger and thirst brought about by climate change will cause unimaginable mass migrations (https://www.visionofhumanity.org/how-climate-change-and-mass-migration-pose-risks-to-peace/) from have-not nations across the world, particularly Latin America, Africa and South Asia, endangering the stability of nations better equipped to cope, unless decisive climate action is taken. We have already received a foretaste of hunger-related migration (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/hunger-not-violence-fuels-guatemalan-migration-surge-us-says/2018/09/21/65c6a546-bdb3-11e8-be70-52bd11fe18af_story.html) on the U.S. southern border. As they say, we “ain’t seen nothin’ yet,” unless the GOP pitches in to avert the crisis.
But that is not all that we can expect from continued inaction. Climate scientists (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mass-extinctions-tied-to-past-climate-changes/) make the case that massive greenhouse gas emissions resulted in a number of mass extinction events in Earth’s past. The best comparison to present-day global warming (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/03/27/this-ancient-climate-catastrophe-is-our-best-clue-about-earths-future/) occurred about 56 million years ago when massive volcanic emission levels, roughly comparable to the almost 40 billion tons (https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/greenhouse-gases-continued-to-increase-rapidly-in-2022) we spew into the atmosphere each year, caused what is called the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, which resulted in the catastrophic destruction of flora and fauna across the globe. According to the geologic and fossil record, it took more than 150,000 years for the Earth to recover.
This may all sound alarmist, but it is time to get alarmed and activated. We are staring at a threat to the very existence of many life forms on the planet.

Agree or disagree, it's not like the author didn't give you an idea of what he meant. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:04:04 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 09:09:33 AM

A lot of things should be, or should not be, but are not, or are ....

This should be your sig.  It's a good example of most of your posts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:14:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 02:59:18 PM

Unless we take dramatic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the very existence of life on planet Earth will be endangered.

Yeah, this sentence is silly.
We've already bypassed whatever tipping point there is so that our comfy way of life will be gone in the next 100 years or so.  Miami, New Orleans, half of Bangladesh, and every island nation will be screwed by then.
.
The ALERT message shouldn't be that life on this planet will be endangered, but that these changes tend to occur naturally at a much slower rate than they are now.  That's the human element - we're accelerating the time it takes for these climate changes to happen.  In turn, this makes it difficult or impossible (we don't know) for 'nature' to change along with it in a natural (ie - not man-caused) pace.
.
Things will be different, we just don't know in what way.  Maybe the American west will become lush with grass and forests.  Maybe the island of Manhattan will be 8 feet under water.  Maybe footlong lizards will be as common as stray cats.  Maybe bikini shops will open in Juneau. 
People will have a less comfortable life (on the whole, on the average) and with no time to adjust, we don't know how nature will change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:14:32 PM

The phrase is "the very existence of life on Earth" would be endangered.  This is absurd, short of some massive cosmological event.  One can predict a rational dire future without such hyperbole and I think it would be far more effective.

The other thing is the verb "cannot".  Yes, politicians not only can but almost certainly will fail this test.

And of course I chuckle any time I hear someone say "Well, X SHOULD be...".  That's the kind of pointless facile ignorant pointless silly absurd drivel that adds nothing to any discussion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:16:17 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:14:10 PM

We've already bypassed whatever tipping point there is so that our comfy way of life will be gone in the next 100 years or so.  Miami, New Orleans, half of Bangladesh, and every island nation will be screwed by then.
.  Maybe the island of Manhattan will be 8 feet under water.  

Do you have any basis for suggesting this as a possibility in 100 years?  What does the best current climate science suggest about sea level rise?  Do you have any idea?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:19:56 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:14:32 PM

The phrase is "the very existence of life on Earth" would be endangered.  This is absurd, short of some massive cosmological event.  One can predict a rational dire future without such hyperbole and I think it would be far more effective.

I mostly agree.
But there is an unknown here.  Like it's POSSIBLE, just highly unlikely.  I assume there are certain lynchpin species that if they were to die out, would collapse the animal world.  But plants would flourish and no matter how bad it got, time is undefeated.  Whether it was a million years or a hundred million, the earth will be fine.
.
A better message would be that we want to avoid the displacement of hundreds of millions of people threatened by sea levels rising.  We'd like an environment in which the mammals we eat can be sustained.  We'd like enough fresh water to be available so that countries don't go to war over it.  You know, that stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:20:36 PM

The U.N. tells us that the violent weather, which has become the norm today, threatens the world’s supply of food and clean water. In turn, global food and water insecurity poses a serious threat to America’s national security, according to the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies

____________________________________________

I have trouble believing clean water is going away because of violent weather
as he states violent weather has become the norm - yet food and clean water are normal as well
is it threatened?  maybe, threats are just that.  

America's southern border has been an issue for a few decades.  It could be addressed if needed.

I think this is BS alarmist

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:20:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:16:17 PM

Do you have any basis for suggesting this as a possibility in 100 years?  What does the best current climate science suggest about sea level rise?  Do you have any idea?

I was talking about unknowns, and so that would be unknown.  And the 8 feet number was random.  Because I was discussing unknowns.
I could change it to 3 feet and 127 years, would that make it more tolerable?  Less random?  Known?
No.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:22:47 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:20:36 PM

The U.N. tells us that the violent weather, which has become the norm today, threatens the world’s supply of food and clean water. In turn, global food and water insecurity poses a serious threat to America’s national security, according to the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies

____________________________________________

I have trouble believing clean water is going away because of violent weather
as he states violent weather has become the norm - yet food and clean water are normal as well
is it threatened?  maybe, threats are just that. 

America's southern border has been an issue for a few decades.  It could be addressed if needed.

I think this is BS alarmist

I think you and I are extremely distanced from the realities of the food and water situations much of the world faces.  Sinks and grocery stores aren't a thing in much of the world.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:24:12 PM

well, we both think building cities like Phoenix in the desert is foolish

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:27:52 PM

I figure any rational nonhyperbolic discussion of the topic SHOULD rely on current "best estimates" with some error bars around it, not just random guesses about something based on nothing.  It does help to be somewhat informed about the topic of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:28:24 PM

water evaporates and condenses

unless water escapes the earth's atmosphere it's going to fall back on the earth

perhaps in different places than usual, but clean water will be around

some folks may want to relocate from deserts and the coastal shoreline

perhaps more people will be living in North Dakota and Canada??

that doesn't seem like the end of the world as we know it to me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:33:20 PM

The violent weather hype is mostly just that, there is relatively little sound evidence that weather today is any more violent than in the past.  That COULD change, but it hasn't as yet, at least not as much as the media portray.  (There is some evidence hurricanes are tending to move more slowly, but the ACE factor has been pretty level over decades.)  Every event from Canadian forest fires to California drought is blamed on climate change.  We of course experienced drastic drought in the 1930s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:34:04 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:27:52 PM

I figure any rational nonhyperbolic discussion of the topic SHOULD rely on current "best estimates" with some error bars around it, not just random guesses about something based on nothing.  It does help to be somewhat informed about the topic of course.

the IPCC best estimates seem like vague hyperbole to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:34:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:33:20 PM

The violent weather hype is mostly just that, there is relatively little sound evidence that weather today is any more violent than in the past.  That COULD change, but it hasn't as yet, at least not as much as the media portray.  (There is some evidence hurricanes are tending to move more slowly, but the ACE factor has been pretty level over decades.)  Every event from Canadian forest fires to California drought is blamed on climate change.  We of course experienced drastic drought in the 1930s.

Dude,

Violent weather has become the norm!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:39:11 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:28:24 PM

water evaporates and condenses

unless water escapes the earth's atmosphere it's going to fall back on the earth

perhaps in different places than usual, but clean water will be around

some folks may want to relocate from deserts and the coastal shoreline

perhaps more people will be living in North Dakota and Canada??

that doesn't seem like the end of the world as we know it to me

"some folks" and "shoreline" shouldn't be in the same sentence.
40% of the people on the planet live on the coast.
40% of 8 billion is 3.2 billion.  People.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:39:42 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:34:04 PM

the IPCC best estimates seem like vague hyperbole to me.

There is some meat on their estimates, in my view, whether I agree or not.  The summary is decently specific.  But on sea level rise, they show the usual range by 2100 centered on about 2 feet, in 80 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 05:40:48 PM

Clean water is an economic problem, not a climate problem. Desalinization is a perfectly acceptable technical solution, but the question is whether it is economically practicable to do so. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:41:24 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 12, 2023, 05:40:48 PM

Clean water is an economic problem, not a climate problem. Desalinization is a perfectly acceptable technical solution, but the question is whether it is economically practicable to do so.

Energy, which stands in for money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:42:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:24:12 PM

well, we both think building cities like Phoenix in the desert is foolish

Phoenix would be totally prudent if it was much smaller and the river wasn't dammed.  A modest-sized city that can provide for itself - great.
But we dam the river for power and import water and food and power from hundreds of miles away and have 2 million people living in a sand box.  
Idiocy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:43:26 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:39:42 PM

There is some meat on their estimates, in my view, whether I agree or not.  The summary is decently specific.  But on sea level rise, they show the usual range by 2100 centered on about 2 feet, in 80 years.

I know the number 2 isn't big in isolation.
But a 2 foot sea level rise is MASSIVE.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:45:12 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:39:11 PM

40% of the people on the planet live on the coast.
40% of 8 billion is 3.2 billion.  People. 

In the US, 40% of the population lives in coastal counties, which I would not confuse with "on the coast".

Globally, the 40% figure applies to "within 100 km" of a coastline of an ocean.  Sometimes, details actually matter.  If some motel advertises they are "on the coast" and I find they are 60 miles inland, I might be unhappy with them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:45:44 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:43:26 PM

I know the number 2 isn't big in isolation.
But a 2 foot sea level rise is MASSIVE. 

Plenty of tides are more than 2 feet, some by a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:47:13 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:39:11 PM

"some folks" and "shoreline" shouldn't be in the same sentence.
40% of the people on the planet live on the coast.
40% of 8 billion is 3.2 billion.  People. 

how many people live within a 2 foot sea level rise???

they may have to back up a few blocks to higher ground

they are not all going to die or become ill

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:47:26 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:45:44 PM

Plenty of tides are more than 2 feet, some by a lot.

LOL I'm done.  You're unreachable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:48:41 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:47:13 PM

how many people live within a 2 foot sea level rise???

they may have to back up a few blocks to higher ground

they are not all going to die or become ill

You can't believe this.  
Really?
You're this limited?  
You have a cartoonish, 5 year old understanding of the world.  I'm embarrassed for you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:50:58 PM

really, I'm that limited

you may be able to explain it to me

you are a professional

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:53:14 PM

I'm good, thanks.
Explaining things to someone who doesn't understand it?  Sure, that's my career.
Explaining things to someone who doesn't want to understand it?  Not as fun, but hell, I post on this board, don't I?  Willing to do it, against my best judgement.
.
But I'm going to pass on explaining it to someone who doesn't understand it nor wants to.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:54:05 PM

let's say  a half a billion people have to move.

not all at once but over a period of 80-100 years

will that cause the end of life on earth as we know it?

will it even cause the life of those half billion to change drastically?

people have been moving and have been forced to move since the dawn of mankind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 12, 2023, 06:35:55 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 05:53:14 PM

I'm good, thanks.

Are you playing with Ouija Boards & Peyote Buttons again, oh schools out that's right

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 12, 2023, 06:36:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:54:05 PM

people have been moving and have been forced to move since the dawn of mankind

'Skers were forced to move from the Big SWC

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 12, 2023, 06:43:48 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on June 12, 2023, 06:36:35 PM

'Skers were forced to move from the Big SWC

very good MrNubbz how can we ever forget

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 12, 2023, 09:55:51 PM

'Skers were skeered of yet more losses to Texas and tucked their tails and fled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 09:56:50 PM

HELENA, Mont. (AP) — Rikki Held decided to join other young plaintiffs in a lawsuit to force Montana officials to do something about climate change after watching wildfires blacken the sky over her family’s ranch, drought stress the cattle and violent floods erode the banks of a nearby river.

Held and 15 other young people finally got their day in court Monday after suing state officials three years ago for failing to take action to curb global warming. The case is the first climate change lawsuit to reach trial among dozens filed across the U.S. in the last decade.

They are trying to persuade state District Judge Kathy Seeley over a two-week trial that the state’s allegiance to fossil fuel development endangers their health and livelihoods and threatens future generations.

The state court case centers on a government’s obligations to protect people against worsening climate change. Experts say it could set legal precedent but isn’t likely to spur immediate policy changes in fossil fuel-friendly Montana.

A lawyer for the state sought to minimize the case’s significance and said sparsely-populated Montana produces a “minuscule” emissions on a global scale.


Held’s family ranch in southeastern Montana is near some of the planet’s most abundant coal reserves in the sprawling Powder River Basin. State officials have continued to promote that fuel for export to out of state and overseas markets despite scientific consensus that fossil fuels are largely to blame for worsening climate change.

Held spoke on Monday about getting heat alerts on her phone for temperatures up to 110 degrees and about a fire that burned power lines and left her ranch powerless for a month, meaning they couldn’t pump water for their cattle.

“It’s stressful,” Held said, her eyes welling with tears, when asked her feelings about climate change. “That’s my life, and my home is there and it impacts the wellbeing of myself, my family, my community.”

Attorneys for the state declined to question Held while she was on the stand.


Montana Assistant Attorney General Michael Russell said during opening arguments that the state had little control over global emissions. The harms alleged by Held and the other plaintiffs can’t be traced to specific actions by state officials, he said.

“Montana’s emissions are simply too minuscule to make any difference,” Russell said. “Climate change is a global issue that effectively relegates Montana’s role to that of a spectator.”


Russell also suggested that the plaintiffs, who are backed by a well-financed Oregon law firm, had exaggerated the case’s importance, which he said was “far more boring than the plaintiffs would make it out to be.”

In the three years since the lawsuit was filed, the scope of the case has been narrowed to whether Montana’s Environmental Policy Act — which requires state agencies to balance the health of the environment against resource development — is unconstitutional because it does not require officials to consider greenhouse gas emissions or their climate impacts.

Judge Seeley has said she could rule that the state’s climate change exception in its environmental law is at odds with its constitution, but she can’t tell the legislature what to do to remedy the violation.

Environmentalists have called the bench trial a turning point because similar suits in nearly every state have already been dismissed. A favorable decision could add to a handful of rulings globally that have declared governments have a duty to protect citizens from climate change.

Climate researcher Steve Running, who with other scientists was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their work on the topic, said Monday there was “no doubt” climate change was being felt in the state.

Running described an increasingly dire situation of wildfires getting more severe and more frequent in western North America — causing health impacts across the nation — as heavy fossil fuel use continues to churn out emissions at levels problematic for the atmosphere.

“There’s no alternative explanation,” Running said. “If we do nothing and continue with business as usual, the planet models... suggest these accelerating disturbance rates, accelerating sea level rise, accelerating glacial retreat.”

One reason the case may have made it so far in Montana is the state’s constitutional requirement that government “maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment.” Only a few states, including Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York, have similar environmental protections in their constitutions.

The plaintiffs criticize state officials for their alleged failure to curb planet-warming emissions while Montana pursued oil, gas and coal development that provides jobs, tax revenue and helps meet the energy needs of people in Montana and elsewhere.

They cite smoke from worsening wildfires choking the air they breathe; drought drying rivers that sustain agriculture, fish, wildlife and recreation; along with reduced snowpack and shortened winter recreation seasons.

Attorney Roger Sullivan said his young clients and their families already were suffering health problems and economic losses as climate change dries up rivers and worsens wildfires. He said Montana has a obligation to protect residents from climate change under its unusually protective state constitution.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 09:57:24 PM

Quote from: utee94 on June 12, 2023, 09:55:51 PM

'Skers were skeered of yet more losses to Texas and tucked their tails and fled.

try to stay on topic 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 12, 2023, 10:01:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 09:56:50 PM

HELENA, Mont. (AP) — Rikki Held decided to join other young plaintiffs in a lawsuit to force Montana officials to do something about climate change after watching wildfires blacken the sky over her family’s ranch, drought stress the cattle and violent floods erode the banks of a nearby river.

Held and 15 other young people finally got their day in court Monday after suing state officials three years ago for failing to take action to curb global warming. The case is the first climate change lawsuit to reach trial among dozens filed across the U.S. in the last decade.

They are trying to persuade state District Judge Kathy Seeley over a two-week trial that the state’s allegiance to fossil fuel development endangers their health and livelihoods and threatens future generations.

The state court case centers on a government’s obligations to protect people against worsening climate change. Experts say it could set legal precedent but isn’t likely to spur immediate policy changes in fossil fuel-friendly Montana.

A lawyer for the state sought to minimize the case’s significance and said sparsely-populated Montana produces a “minuscule” emissions on a global scale.


Held’s family ranch in southeastern Montana is near some of the planet’s most abundant coal reserves in the sprawling Powder River Basin. State officials have continued to promote that fuel for export to out of state and overseas markets despite scientific consensus that fossil fuels are largely to blame for worsening climate change.

Held spoke on Monday about getting heat alerts on her phone for temperatures up to 110 degrees and about a fire that burned power lines and left her ranch powerless for a month, meaning they couldn’t pump water for their cattle.

“It’s stressful,” Held said, her eyes welling with tears, when asked her feelings about climate change. “That’s my life, and my home is there and it impacts the wellbeing of myself, my family, my community.”

Attorneys for the state declined to question Held while she was on the stand.


Montana Assistant Attorney General Michael Russell said during opening arguments that the state had little control over global emissions. The harms alleged by Held and the other plaintiffs can’t be traced to specific actions by state officials, he said.

“Montana’s emissions are simply too minuscule to make any difference,” Russell said. “Climate change is a global issue that effectively relegates Montana’s role to that of a spectator.”


Russell also suggested that the plaintiffs, who are backed by a well-financed Oregon law firm, had exaggerated the case’s importance, which he said was “far more boring than the plaintiffs would make it out to be.”

In the three years since the lawsuit was filed, the scope of the case has been narrowed to whether Montana’s Environmental Policy Act — which requires state agencies to balance the health of the environment against resource development — is unconstitutional because it does not require officials to consider greenhouse gas emissions or their climate impacts.

Judge Seeley has said she could rule that the state’s climate change exception in its environmental law is at odds with its constitution, but she can’t tell the legislature what to do to remedy the violation.

Environmentalists have called the bench trial a turning point because similar suits in nearly every state have already been dismissed. A favorable decision could add to a handful of rulings globally that have declared governments have a duty to protect citizens from climate change.

Climate researcher Steve Running, who with other scientists was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their work on the topic, said Monday there was “no doubt” climate change was being felt in the state.

Running described an increasingly dire situation of wildfires getting more severe and more frequent in western North America — causing health impacts across the nation — as heavy fossil fuel use continues to churn out emissions at levels problematic for the atmosphere.

“There’s no alternative explanation,” Running said. “If we do nothing and continue with business as usual, the planet models... suggest these accelerating disturbance rates, accelerating sea level rise, accelerating glacial retreat.”

One reason the case may have made it so far in Montana is the state’s constitutional requirement that government “maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment.” Only a few states, including Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York, have similar environmental protections in their constitutions.

The plaintiffs criticize state officials for their alleged failure to curb planet-warming emissions while Montana pursued oil, gas and coal development that provides jobs, tax revenue and helps meet the energy needs of people in Montana and elsewhere.

They cite smoke from worsening wildfires choking the air they breathe; drought drying rivers that sustain agriculture, fish, wildlife and recreation; along with reduced snowpack and shortened winter recreation seasons.

Attorney Roger Sullivan said his young clients and their families already were suffering health problems and economic losses as climate change dries up rivers and worsens wildfires. He said Montana has a obligation to protect residents from climate change under its unusually protective state constitution.

I prefer this to insurance companies shrugging their shoulders and citing "acts of god."  :96:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 10:43:37 PM

or an act of mother nature

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 07:26:47 AM

If anyone built a residence of any type 2 feet above mean sea level (MSL), they'd likely be swamped at high tide.  People don't do such things.  And it is obvious fols have built buildings ten or so feet above the high tide mark and lived to regret it.  In the US, any building built in the last ~50 years or more close to a shore line of an ocean would be elevated over parking.  

And of course this notion that 40% of the world's population lives on the coast is absurd, and incorrect.  A two foot rise in MSL would cause some dislocation no doubt, especially in places that are not developed like Bangladesh, but that is projected to happen over ~80 years, and basically if nothing is done to combat things.  Folks will often make up figures because they are too lazy to use the best ones available to hype the situation.  The latest trend is to hype "violent weather" as if those things were rare in the past.

And obviously some folks get their information from movies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 08:28:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 05:45:44 PM

Plenty of tides are more than 2 feet, some by a lot.

Yep. Tidal range in the Bristol Channel (Wales) is as much as 50 feet. Across the pond in Novia Scotia it can be as much as 55 feet.

You're not outrunning those.

The Carribean and Med have some of the lowest tides.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 08:30:34 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 05:50:58 PM

really, I'm that limited

you may be able to explain it to me

you are a professional

Not in water resources, he isn't.

That would be me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 08:32:26 AM

Hawaii had no tides, apparently, for obvious reasons.  

The typical tidal range in the open ocean is about 1 metre (3 feet) (blue and green on the map on the right). Closer to the coast, this range is much greater. Coastal tidal ranges vary globally and can differ anywhere from near zero to over 16 m (52 ft).

A potential 2 foot increase in MSL would of course be problematic in some areas, but it wouldn't mean Manhattan would be 8 feet under water, unless you're making a movie, nor would it mean Orlando would become an ocean port city.  It would be largely manageable in western countries, some areas that never should have been built in the first place would get abandoned.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 08:35:53 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 08:32:26 AM

Hawaii had no tides, apparently, for obvious reasons. 

The typical tidal range in the open ocean is about 1 metre (3 feet) (blue and green on the map on the right). Closer to the coast, this range is much greater. Coastal tidal ranges vary globally and can differ anywhere from near zero to over 16 m (52 ft).

A potential 2 foot increase in MSL would of course be problematic in some areas, but it wouldn't mean Manhattan would be 8 feet under water, unless you're making a movie, nor would it mean Orlando would become an ocean port city.  It would be largely manageable in western countries, some areas that never should have been built in the first place would get abandoned.

Correct. And it's happening already. New Orleans has 250K less people than it did 60 years ago.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:04:04 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 08:35:53 AM

Correct. And it's happening already. New Orleans has 250K less people than it did 60 years ago.

How many of them volunteered to do so?
You're acting like "ho-hum, the problem is fixing itself." 
As if it wasn't a massive hurricane and years of mismanagement that caused those people to leave.  1400 of those 250K died in the storm and it cost $125 billion in damage.
Are you purposely misleading or just being a dickhead?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 13, 2023, 09:07:41 AM

folks have been moving in and out of flood plains since there have been folks

usually because of something much more drastic than a 2 foot raise over 80 years

it's a mole hill not a mountain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:09:44 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:04:04 AM

How many of them volunteered to do so?
You're acting like "ho-hum, the problem is fixing itself." 
As if it wasn't a massive hurricane and years of mismanagement that caused those people to leave.  1400 of those 250K died in the storm and it cost $125 billion in damage.
Are you purposely misleading or just being a dickhead?

Are you claiming his figures are incorrect?  All he stated was a figure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:09:51 AM

Yeah, because everyone is going to gradually move, over time.  That's going to happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:10:25 AM

A lot of folks do move, over time, it is known.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 09:11:08 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:04:04 AM

How many of them volunteered to do so?
You're acting like "ho-hum, the problem is fixing itself." 
As if it wasn't a massive hurricane and years of mismanagement that caused those people to leave.
Are you purposely misleading or just being a dickhead?

Dickhead?

You are awful condescending considering the topic is something you know little/nothing about.


(https://i.imgur.com/edtqmQ7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 13, 2023, 09:11:42 AM

Quote from: utee94 on June 12, 2023, 09:55:51 PM

'Skers were skeered of yet more losses to Texas and tucked their tails and fled.

That's just low down and mean,accurate I might add. Maybe that Bud Light swiller will be by to confirm :D

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:11:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:09:44 AM

Are you claiming his figures are incorrect?  All he stated was a figure.

When you ignore the "how" of the numbers and the how includes most of the people being suddenly forced out, that's misleading.  
The lack of empathy in general on this board is demented.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 13, 2023, 09:15:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 08:30:34 AM

Not in water resources, he isn't.

That would be me.

Are you holding water? Do you like it with your,Scotch? Have you finished Iowa's Great Lake yet?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:15:25 AM

New Orleans, Louisiana Population History | 1840 - 2022 (biggestuscities.com) (https://www.biggestuscities.com/city/new-orleans-louisiana)

Looks like his figures are basically correct, though the peak was in 1960, and population has dropped since until very recently when folks started moving back to an extent.

Maybe they'll all be eight feet underwater in a century.

Or not.  Hey, I can make up things too!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 13, 2023, 09:15:54 AM

well sea level rise from global warming won't be sudden

no cause for alarmist thinking from the good people that have the right amount of empathy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:16:49 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:11:46 AM

When you ignore the "how" of the numbers and the how includes most of the people being suddenly forced out, that's misleading. 
The lack of empathy in general on this board is demented.

He stated a fact, if you wanted to explore why it was a fact, you could have easily enough.  Instead you disputed his facts.  And the population declines are largely unrelated to the hurricane.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 09:18:59 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:11:46 AM

When you ignore the "how" of the numbers and the how includes most of the people being suddenly forced out, that's misleading. 
The lack of empathy in general on this board is demented.

Maybe YOU should look at the numbers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:20:24 AM

Here's a thought, instead of calling him a "dickhead", you could have explored more about why folks have left NO and ADDED some context to his figures.

But no, ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 13, 2023, 09:22:29 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:04:04 AM

How many of them volunteered to do so?
You're acting like "ho-hum, the problem is fixing itself." 
As if it wasn't a massive hurricane and years of mismanagement that caused those people to leave.  1400 of those 250K died in the storm and it cost $125 billion in damage.
Are you purposely misleading or just being a dickhead?

Being a dick head is not realizing people made a make shift stop gap measure to deal with natural low lying flood plains below grade. A week before the Hurricane It was on the National Nightly news that a Category 4-5 was imminent and advised all to leave the city/area. Loss of life was preventable many chose to stay......DICKHEAD

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:26:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:20:24 AM

Here's a thought, instead of calling him a "dickhead", you could have explored more about why folks have left NO and ADDED some context to his figures.

But no, ...

Context:  one event was nearly equal to the decades of stagnation.  
I ddn't call him a dickhead, I asked if he was being one.  
.
MrNubbz accuately pointed out that many people were stubborn and didn't leave.  Guess what?  In 80 years, you're going to have tens of millions of people resisting upheaval.  
That'll be fun.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:27:23 AM

Maybe we can terminate the name calling here?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 13, 2023, 09:28:27 AM

it wasn't name calling
it was name asking

that's fine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:28:55 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:27:23 AM

Maybe we can terminate the name calling here? 

Should we terminate asking questions as well?
How about misunderstanding?
Let's just stop posting altogether.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:29:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:27:23 AM

Maybe we can terminate the name calling here? 

Are you being an asshat?  :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 13, 2023, 09:31:21 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 13, 2023, 09:28:27 AM

it wasn't name calling
it was name asking

that's fine

Go have a Bud Light and cool your heels

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:31:58 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 09:28:55 AM

Let's just stop posting altogether.

For someone who contributes NOTHING to this thread, at all, ever, I suggest you consider this option.  You strike me as completely incapable of ANY technical discussion, on ANY topic.  My suggestion would be to stay out of them entirely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 09:38:04 AM

Next week I have a rather technical class.

It's called Coastal Hydraulics. I can report back if there is genuine interest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:42:54 AM

A short version simplified for folks like me could be interesting.  I have a wine "class" coming up later this month as well if I can summon the energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 13, 2023, 09:50:35 AM

oh, it's genuine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 09:55:46 AM

All PE's must complete 30 hours of continuing education for every 2-year renewal. Since I've been down here, I've focused my education on this type of topic, along with tidal hydraulics, targeted hydrology courses, ecology and restoration. It's fun.

I have an extensive background in riverine hydraulics, hydrology and ecology. *

The differences are pretty stark.

* Which is why I donated my time to the Katrina recovery efforts. That resulted in my firm being offered a contract with a Federal contractor, to assist on the West Closure complex. I walked from that ~ 7 figure offer as even then I felt New Orleans should not have been rebuilt.


.


So yeah, I'm a dickhead.

~???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 09:59:28 AM

By the way, I recall reading a study around 15 years ago, regarding people moving away after Katrina. I'll see if I can dig it up, but the gist of the study was that 85-90 percent of those who did move out were contemplating moving before Katrina, due to storm damage concerns. 

The reality is that Katrina simply pushed them over the edge because they were on their way out anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 10:04:19 AM

West Closure Complex, for those who might be interested. Such a cluster.

(https://i.imgur.com/Zo8ZIRe.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 10:10:26 AM

Cincinnati, and Kentucky across the river, had some modestly impressive flood control systems.  The Mill Creek which normally drained into the Ohio after passing through the valley in which much of Cincy was built, would get dammed up when the river rose above flood stage and its waters pumped over the dikes into the river.  When I moved there it was basically an industrial drain though it was slowly cleaned up to some degree over time.  

The Ford plant near us had a 10 foot or so dike around it with entryways into which concrete slabs would be dropped when the Mill Creek flooded (which it did fairly often).  There was a pool store near us that got flooded out every year or so, which I found ironic.  It was right on the Mill Creek.

Cincinnati was badly flooded in 1937, the high water mark was impressive.  It was a "natural" place to build a city back when because the flatness of the valley afforded room to build, much of the Ohio is bounded by rather steep hillsides.  So settlers used the flatter portions for cities and towns, understandably.  Louisville is sited where rapids used to exist.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 10:22:58 AM

Try as we might, but we just cannot control nature.

It's maddening.

Old River Control Structure - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_River_Control_Structure)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 11:00:34 AM

Fossil fuel companies’ net-zero pledges ‘largely meaningless’ without better data: Analysis | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4047396-fossil-fuel-companies-net-zero-pledges-largely-meaningless-without-better-data-analysis/)

How is a major oil company possibly going to reach "net zero" by 2050?  There will still be a high demand for oil even then, under any scenario, and somebody will produce the oil and its products.  Maybe "Exxon" splits into two companies, one of which makes solar panels etc., and the other produces the oil.

Yay.

Half the cars on the road in 2050 are still projected to be ICE vehicles ...  at best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 06:29:31 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 09:31:58 AM

For someone who contributes NOTHING to this thread, at all, ever, I suggest you consider this option.  You strike me as completely incapable of ANY technical discussion, on ANY topic.  My suggestion would be to stay out of them entirely.

Personally, I find it odd a thread with this title exists on this board.
At least rename it.
"Local Weather, Naysayers, and Human Dominion over the Earth" would work.  At least it'd be more accurate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 13, 2023, 11:05:01 PM

we're not racists 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 14, 2023, 02:03:54 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 10:22:58 AM

Try as we might, but we just cannot control nature.

It's maddening.

Old River Control Structure - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_River_Control_Structure)

Maddening?
I would say it's predictable.  Both our desire to do it and inevitable failing to do so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 14, 2023, 02:04:27 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 13, 2023, 11:05:01 PM

we're not racists

Huh?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 06:36:05 AM

IEA: Global oil demand to peak before the end of the decade (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/iea-global-oil-demand-to-peak-before-the-end-of-the-decade.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 07:51:17 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2023, 06:29:31 PM

Personally, I find it odd a thread with this title exists on this board.
At least rename it.
"Local Weather, Naysayers, and Human Dominion over the Earth" would work.  At least it'd be more accurate.

Personally, I find that you're not paying much attention.

Not one person here has denied that climate is changing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 07:53:38 AM

He doesn't pay much attention because he's unable to follow the discussion, at all.  So, he just makes broad silly proclamations about whatever he feels like, with no substance or contribution to any discussion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 08:14:35 AM

Shell boosts dividend by 15%, maintains oil output through to 2030 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/shell-boosts-dividend-by-15percent-maintains-oil-output-through-to-2030.html)

The world’s leading climate scientists have previously warned that the fight to keep global heating under 1.5 degrees Celsius has reached “now or never (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/ipcc-report-climate-scientists-issue-ultimatum-on-1point5-degrees-goal.html)” territory, saying (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/climate-un-report-on-adaptation-warns-of-grave-and-mounting-threat.html) last year that “any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 08:15:44 AM

So, Big Oil is under pressure to cut oil production, which to me is absurd if demand exists for it.  Imagine they somehow did cut way back on production, it would mean more oil from OPEC Plus.  The supply would simply be replenished with other sources.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 08:16:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 07:53:38 AM

He doesn't pay much attention because he's unable to follow the discussion, at all.  So, he just makes broad silly proclamations about whatever he feels like, with no substance or contribution to any discussion.

Hey now. At least I found out I'm a dickhead.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 08:17:33 AM

Being energy independent would be good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 08:18:22 AM

US oil production is nearing record levels now.  With Canada and Mexico, we're continent independent and then some.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 08:20:30 AM

Complete independence. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 08:34:34 AM

I don't know that it would make much difference.  It would help our trade balance some.  We're at 12,696 thousand BPD in March 2023.  The record is 13,000.  There was a six month period before COVID hit that was a bit higher.  Usage is about 18.7 million BPD, which to me is an astounding figure.

Global oil usage is just over 100.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 08:38:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 08:34:34 AM

I don't know that it would make much difference.  It would help our trade balance some.  We're at 12,696 thousand BPD in March 2023.  The record is 13,000.  There was a six month period before COVID hit that was a bit higher.  Usage is about 18.7 million BPD, which to me is an astounding figure.

Global oil usage is just over 100.

Are there differences in the way countries refine crude? I do know that refining changes for the summer in some states (IL was one). Does that affect the number of barrels used to create a gallon?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:03:43 AM

There are seasonal shifts in refining, in winter, they make more heating oil and the gasoline is more volatile than in summer.  I don't think this has a material impact on output except they often shut down for a few days to make the shfts.  They still use "high" sulfur Diesel in Europe as opposed to the US, that is a factor for them in keeping Diesel cheaper than gasoline.  In the US, that sulfur has to be largely removed from Diesel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 09:14:03 AM

How much sulfur is in a barrel? What are the other components of crude that are removed to make gasoline? Is octane an additive?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:26:54 AM

Petroleum comes in several grades, anything called "sweet" is low sulfur, and "sour" is high sulfur (which is cheaper).  Petroleum is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons ranging from methane with one carbon which is in effect natural gas to very high chainlength hydrocarbons used in things like asphalt.

The first step in refining is to separate these by volatility, my oil company friends would talk about their "C4 stream" for example, which was mostly butane.  Gasoline is mostly C8, which is called "octane" but isn't the same thing as the octane rating.  Higher octane is achieved in part by branching, straight chained hydrocarbons have very low octane (but high cetane for Diesel).  So another step is to rearrange straight chains to get branched chains for octane rating.  And there are additives that make higher octane, one is ethanol.  Premium gas can contain more ethanol as a cheap way to increase octane, but it lowers fuel economy (and power).  Tetraethyl lead was for decades the cheap way to add octane rating.

In winter, gasoline has more C7 and C6 in it for volatility, in summer, less of that, and some C9 C10.  This was more important with carburetors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 09:32:34 AM

What is the process?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:34:22 AM

The process for what?  The first step is distillation.  A second step can be cracking, which is changing long chainlength molecules to shorter ones, and more branched ones, this uses heat and catalysts.  Sulfur removal, I don't know how they do it, sulfur tends to poison catalysts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:39:07 AM

Refining crude oil - the refining process - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil-the-refining-process.php)

That's a simpler explanation.

Sulfur removal from crude oil and hydrocarbons » Rayeneh Group (https://rayeneh.com/sulfur-removal-from-crude-oil-and-hydrocarbons/)

"Caustic washing" ... to remove sulfur, interesting.  Back in the day, I was an organosulfur chemist.  That day is long gone of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 09:39:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:34:22 AM

The process for what?  The first step is distillation.  A second step can be cracking, which is changing long chainlength molecules to shorter ones, and more branched ones, this uses heat and catalysts.  Sulfur removal, I don't know how they do it, sulfur tends to poison catalysts.

The process for taking a barrel of crude and turning it into gasoline, say 91 octane.

How many gallons of gas come from a 55 gallon barrel of crude?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:43:02 AM

Petroleum refineries in the United States produce about 19 to 20 gallons of motor gasoline and 11 to 12 gallons of ultra-low sulfur distillate fuel oil (most of which is sold as diesel fuel and in several states as heating oil) from one 42-gallon barrel of crude oil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 09:45:29 AM

Where does the rest of the stuff go?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:51:18 AM

Asphalt, kerosene, heating oil, natural gas, chemicals, ...

My oil company buds were constantly trying to find a use for their "C4 stream".  It had only fuel value much of the time, they said.  The only main use was butadiene.

They got excited when I came up with a use for it, but that use didn't pan out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 09:53:35 AM

Thank you for the education.

Just for giggles, how much gasoline per barrel does China get? India? Russia? Germany?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 10:03:03 AM

My guess is about the same as here.  The technology has been around a long time with some minor upgrades.  The US had a major advantage in av gas in WW 2 because we could make higher octane fuel which allowed higher compression engines with more superturbocharging than the Germans could manage.  They used water injection as one way around that.

General aviation avgas today is called "100 LL' for 100 octane low lead.  It still has lead in it (TEL).  Then there is "Jet A" which is basically kerosene with an additive in it of some sort.  The two don't mix, but there have been situations where the wrong type went into a plane, not good.  When my Cessna started running rough I thought I had a bad batch of fuel as I had just filled it up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 10:06:29 AM

I'm curious is some leave the lead in to gain more octane and power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 10:16:38 AM

I think it’s more for older valves

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 14, 2023, 12:03:29 PM

I worked in a light hydrocarbons plant for 15 years. We cracked lights like ethane and propane ( and sometimes naphtha ) to make ethylene and propylene. Later we dehydrogenated propane to make propylene and a shit load of H2. 

We always talked about our streams. C4+ heavies, c2 lights. We had one whole section of the plant designed to remove sulfur. We used a caustic wash process along with catalysts. There are different types of sulfur that require different processes. Sulfur is a poison to our catalysts later in the plant. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 12:18:01 PM

Sounds pretty complicated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2023, 07:03:32 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/gN8ZT8f.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2023, 07:26:46 AM

The above disturbance will likely not reach the US, based on what I'm reading. The wind shear is too high in the Gulf and Atlantic, North of Cuba. Look like this area could be the bullseye.

(https://i.imgur.com/PC1m4xK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2023, 07:54:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 12:18:01 PM

Sounds pretty complicated.

The field is called petrochemistry, it's a thing, and it's complicated.  I worked a bit distantly from that area with some folks at Shell Chemical.  They had some impressive gear and pilot plants.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2023, 08:09:27 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2023, 07:26:46 AM

[img width=500 height=277.993]https://i.imgur.com/PC1m4xK.png[/img]

area of interest?
very interesting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2023, 08:26:30 AM

Area of concern?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2023, 08:26:58 AM

Quote from: Gigem on June 14, 2023, 12:03:29 PM

I worked in a light hydrocarbons plant for 15 years. We cracked lights like ethane and propane ( and sometimes naphtha ) to make ethylene and propylene. Later we dehydrogenated propane to make propylene and a shit load of H2.

We always talked about our streams. C4+ heavies, c2 lights. We had one whole section of the plant designed to remove sulfur. We used a caustic wash process along with catalysts. There are different types of sulfur that require different processes. Sulfur is a poison to our catalysts later in the plant.

Interesting, the different kinds of "sulfur" are basically different kinds of organosulfur compounds that can be present in sour crude (and some in sweet).  The thiols are removed by caustic wash (generating waste which is unpleasant).  Some of the rest could be removed by oxidation but I don't know if they do that.  Sulfur compounds tend to attach to most catalysts and never let go.  All this generates a lot of waste which has negative value.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2023, 08:51:11 AM

Bonn climate talks stall over money, ramping up pressure on COP28 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/16/bonn-climate-talks-stall-over-money-ramping-up-pressure-on-cop28.html)

Yup, gonna be more of same, molar gnashing over lack of progress and $$$$ ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 16, 2023, 11:18:03 AM

Had 21 days with just 1/10th of an inch of Rain. Now we've had just under 5" in 7 days :sign0065:

Had ad least 1 Tornado came down in NW Ohio,high winds and large hail

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2023, 03:13:56 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/IIg2fHR.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 16, 2023, 04:51:45 PM

Tropical wave?  I see a dong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 16, 2023, 04:54:42 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/4fvM5m9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2023, 04:59:17 PM

If someone looks at clouds and sees dongs, is it bad?

I mean, I see dog faces a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 16, 2023, 06:29:05 PM

Quote from: utee94 on June 16, 2023, 04:54:42 PM

[img width=499.988 height=299.988]https://i.imgur.com/4fvM5m9.png[/img]

Is ketchup on a corndog more allowable than on a hotdog?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2023, 06:32:07 PM

well, corndogs are popular with children

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2023, 08:33:32 AM

Summer has arrived, here anyway, pretty much.  In Cincy, I knew it would be heinous if I needed the AC when driving to work.  It's 71°F already and sunny.

Might be pool time today, have not been this year.

I threw a rubber baseball off the tennis practice wall yesterday and was soaked.  Then I ran stairs a bit.  The wife wouldn't hug me when I got home, she's finicky.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 08:54:30 AM

been upper 80s low 90s here for a couple weeks with some humidity

I've not run the AC yet - last months light bill was $59

a break today, high of 76 and hopefully showers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 09:01:15 AM

85 here, light rain. Dew point is killer, at 80. It's an AC/cooking/pool day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2023, 09:06:57 AM

My electric bill is so low relative to what it was in Cincy I just don't worry about it, though my wife always says she cold (indoors).  I bought her that sweatshirt.

My HOA is pretty high, but when I figure what it cost to maintain a house in Cincy, it's about even.  Painting got onerous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 09:09:04 AM

How many sides of your condo are interior sides? And are there units above?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2023, 09:11:50 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 09:09:04 AM

How many sides of your condo are interior sides? And are there units above?

We have a corner unit facing NE, so two sides are exposed on three levels with a lot of glass.  Above us is the common open deck area, so nobody lives there.  The only real heat issue is exposure to the morning sun but we have curtains which I close.  In winter, the sun is so far "south" it barely intrudes.  Folks on the south side of our building get cooked in summer but they all have serious shades.  In winter they barely use their heat.

I think these water sourced heat pumps are a major factor, they are very efficient.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 09:30:00 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 09:01:15 AM

85 here, light rain. Dew point is killer, at 80. It's an AC/cooking/pool day.

Dew Point 61 F

Humidity 87 %

This is with a rain shower approaching from the south
65 degrees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2023, 09:31:33 AM

Should be 80 and sunny this afternoon. Perfect golf weather ⛳

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 09:33:58 AM

my partner bailed on me this morning - I cancelled my 11:22 tee time

daughters are coming in this weekend

I'm golfing with the daughters and son-in-law Sunday at 2pm

86, partly cloudy and 5mph breeze - perfect

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 09:35:02 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2023, 09:31:33 AM

Should be 80 and sunny this afternoon. Perfect golf weather ⛳

You gonna check out the US Open?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2023, 09:43:24 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 09:33:58 AM

my partner bailed on me this morning - I cancelled my 11:22 tee time

Mine is my son. He goes where I tell him, so he isn't bailing.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 09:35:02 AM

You gonna check out the US Open?

Nah. Tickets are like $300/day, and I'd have to drive to LA. I'm not sure which of those things is worse :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2023, 11:31:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 17, 2023, 09:06:57 AM

My electric bill is so low relative to what it was in Cincy I just don't worry about it, though my wife always says she cold (indoors).  I bought her that sweatshirt.

My HOA is pretty high, but when I figure what it cost to maintain a house in Cincy, it's about even.  Painting got onerous.

Your wife says its cold and you give her a sweatshirt???  I guarantee you if my wife felt cold inside the heater would be running full out.  She rules the thermostat in our house.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2023, 11:34:30 AM

Here in Houston its supposed to hit 100 as a high most of the week.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 11:55:42 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2023, 11:34:30 AM

Here in Houston its supposed to hit 100 as a high most of the week.

I saw that. Feels like 115. That is brutal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 11:57:09 AM

like Florida

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 12:07:22 PM

Feels like 100 right now here. I'm OK with that, but not more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 17, 2023, 12:30:53 PM

Humid as hell here now. 

Hit a large bucket this am in prep for tomorrow’s Fathers Day Round.  

Just for kicks- did a weigh in before and after.  Despite drinking 2 16oz waters- was down 3 LB.s after.  Went through 3 golf gloves too. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2023, 12:44:55 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 17, 2023, 12:30:53 PM

Humid as hell here now.

Hit a large bucket this am in prep for tomorrow’s Fathers Day Round. 

Just for kicks- did a weigh in before and after.  Despite drinking 2 16oz waters- was down 3 LB.s after.  Went through 3 golf gloves too.

We need to get out of this pattern of Gulf winds. Things will cool down when that happens.

We've been sending a lot of rain over your way. Looking forward to the return favor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 12:45:47 PM

not for me

maybe tall boy Buds on the course

no golf glove

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 17, 2023, 04:18:59 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 12:45:47 PM

not for me

maybe tall boy Buds on the course

no golf glove

I would prefer no glove.  Impossibility here though. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2023, 04:21:39 PM

dry towel

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2023, 08:36:08 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/tEpkTQ3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2023, 08:24:32 AM

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located 
roughly midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has become 
better organized overnight and is close to becoming a tropical 
cyclone.  If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated 
on a tropical depression later today.  This system is forecast to 
move generally westward at 15 to 20 mph with further development 
across the central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of this 
week.  Additional information on this system, including storm 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 08:35:11 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/zrdNYDz.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 19, 2023, 11:44:25 AM

The dong is growing?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 12:07:21 PM

Cloned.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 19, 2023, 12:51:03 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on June 16, 2023, 11:18:03 AM

Had 21 days with just 1/10th of an inch of Rain. Now we've had just under 5" in 7 days :sign0065:

Had ad least 1 Tornado came down in NW Ohio,high winds and large hail

We had the tornados in our neighborhood. Just got electricity and internet back yesterday afternoon. Lots of trees down, a few homes destroyed, and some barns. We got about 6 inches of rain in about 2 hours. With the power out, my basement flooded. Still trying to get things dried out down there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2023, 12:59:02 PM

Yuck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2023, 01:00:45 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 12:07:21 PM

Cloned.

So when is it going to hit Florida?  I'll be there from tomorrow through next Monday 6/26 so it would be great if it'll hold off until after that...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2023, 01:06:47 PM

The distance looks to like around 5,000 miles.  If it move west at 20 mph ... call it ten days plus to hit Florida.  I'd guess the earliest would be June 29th, probably later than that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2023, 01:09:11 PM

INSANE GOLF CART FAILS! - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzF2lXBw7-A)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 01:12:17 PM

Quote from: utee94 on June 19, 2023, 01:00:45 PM

So when is it going to hit Florida?  I'll be there from tomorrow through next Monday 6/26 so it would be great if it'll hold off until after that...

It probably won't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2023, 01:22:31 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 01:12:17 PM

It probably won't.

Famous last words! :)

I thought they ALL hit Florida.

Of course I suppose it could miss us in Florida and then smack us in New Orleans.  Wouldn't THAT be something...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 01:24:06 PM

I think it will slam into the Honduras, if it lasts that long. There is also some talk that it will veer North into the middle Atlantic.

We really do not want to prepare for a storm this early in the season.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2023, 01:25:06 PM

Hopefully it veers north of course, I was looking at soonest possible landfall for FL.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 01:33:03 PM

Even if it stays West, it will get knocked down along the way by the mountainous islands. Lots of upper wind shear in the Gulf right now too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2023, 03:31:12 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/BYWiNbD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2023, 03:42:01 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/LSRxdVQ.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2023, 03:50:36 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/1n2cMgB.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 20, 2023, 08:18:47 AM

Got a tropical storm going now. Bret.

We can call it Bielema for short.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 20, 2023, 01:26:32 PM

A change in the projected path. Of course, after Ian, it's hard to trust these paths. Ian was supposed to go to Tampa and made a right turn into my face.

(https://i.imgur.com/ahbW2bX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2023, 01:27:51 PM

It does not look to be turning north ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 20, 2023, 01:28:32 PM

Give it a minute.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2023, 01:28:45 PM

Is the Arctic September sea ice doomed to disappear in the 2030’s? | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/06/15/is-the-arctic-september-sea-ice-doomed-to-disappear-in-the-2030s/#more-30198)

Conclusion: K23 takes advantage of the rejected CMIP 6 MMM and comes to strongly biased results. It’s overdue for the editorial board of “Nature communication” to check the peer review process to make sure not misleading the audience and the media.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Kris60 on June 21, 2023, 04:09:08 PM

First day of summer. 65 degrees with a light rain and wind.  June has been really mild so far.  We are barely breaking 70 most days, let alone 80.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2023, 07:10:01 AM

Bret looks to be weakening, which is making stay straight and headed to the area of concern posted a week ago or more.

This new one is gonna get a name too (Cindy) but doesn't look to do much.

(https://i.imgur.com/6RjuGHV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 22, 2023, 10:52:04 AM

Quote from: Kris60 on June 21, 2023, 04:09:08 PM

First day of summer. 65 degrees with a light rain and wind.  June has been really mild so far.  We are barely breaking 70 most days, let alone 80.

Are you in WV?  I had no idea the climate was that mild there.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2023, 06:39:45 AM

Americans are throwing out half their household recyclables. Here’s why – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/4062424-americans-are-throwing-out-half-their-household-recyclables-heres-why/)

I think the real problem is on the other end.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2023, 07:18:51 AM

Google Project Sunroof

Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery.

Google Project Sunroof Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery. (http://Google Project Sunroof Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2023, 07:21:36 AM

Sorry, Project Sunroof hasn't reached that address yet

20 year payback

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2023, 07:32:04 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2023, 07:18:51 AM

Google Project Sunroof

Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery.

Google Project Sunroof Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery. (http://Google Project Sunroof Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery.)

Just tried it. Doesn't make sense for us at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2023, 07:36:40 AM

Held v Montana Climate Lawsuit | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/06/21/held-v-montana-climate-lawsuit/#more-30217)

We're going to see more law suits over climate change wasting time and money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2023, 08:09:02 AM

lawyers making bank

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2023, 09:39:50 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2023, 07:18:51 AM

Google Project Sunroof

Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery.

Google Project Sunroof Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery. (http://Google Project Sunroof Your own personalized solar savings estimator, powered by Google Earth imagery.)

Payback in 10 years with their estimate of $90 electric bill, or 8 years if I select a more accurate number of $150 over the recent few years. 20 year savings of either $20K or $25K relatively, again depending on the two monthly bill selections.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2023, 08:38:56 PM

Git R done!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2023, 10:59:29 PM

20 year savings?  
I can't fathom living anywhere for 20 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 23, 2023, 11:48:57 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2023, 10:59:29 PM

20 year savings? 
I can't fathom living anywhere for 20 years.

we have lived in our current house 33 years course Ive always hated change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2023, 07:12:27 AM

I'll be happy to live here as long as I can physically make it work, which could be 20 years plus I hope.  We heard about one elderly lady who bought when the building was new in 1988 and finally left because she couldn't keep it up for some home about 4 years ago.  I was in Cincy 38 years.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2023, 07:21:33 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2023, 10:59:29 PM

20 year savings? 
I can't fathom living anywhere for 20 years.

Well quit wearing out your welcome :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 24, 2023, 07:44:14 AM

Fro's neighbors are probably glad that he doesn't plan on living there for 20 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2023, 07:54:54 AM

Two things that really change a person are having kids and getting older (duh).  The stuff I thought when I was 25 or so are distant memories, if that.  Being entirely responsible for one's kids is certainly major, for me anyway, my then wife didn't have the same concept which is the main reason we split.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 24, 2023, 09:38:51 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on June 24, 2023, 07:44:14 AM

Fro's neighbors are probably glad that he doesn't plan on living there for 20 years.

Wow, I'm a bad neighbor, too?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 24, 2023, 09:44:42 AM

The use of the word "probably" is an admission that there is a slim possibility that I'm overplaying the odds. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2023, 09:51:40 AM

been in my house since April of 89

at the time I was an upgrade from the previous renter

my neighbors may have forgotten about that in 30+ years

my neighbors have all changed since I moved in except the couple across the street

he passed on from a stroke a couple weeks ago and she isn't able to live alone.  The daughter is staying with mom, but it's not a long term plan.  I don't think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 24, 2023, 09:54:42 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on June 24, 2023, 09:44:42 AM

The use of the word "probably" is an admission that there is a slim possibility that I'm overplaying the odds.

What, you're trying to hold my hand now?!?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 24, 2023, 10:01:00 AM

Gross. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2023, 10:01:28 AM

pucker up, buttercup

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2023, 08:34:42 AM

(CNN) – It’s well known that global sea levels are rising, but now NASA is showing by just how much.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration shared an animation that shows how far sea levels have risen between 1993 and 2022.

Over those three decades, sea levels have risen about 3.5 inches.

That may not seem like a lot, but the animation should be used as a visual metaphor. NASA said it’s designed to look like a submerged porthole of a boat as water can be seen lapping outside the window.


https://www.wctv.tv/2023/06/22/nasa-shows-how-far-sea-levels-have-risen-30-years/ (https://www.wctv.tv/2023/06/22/nasa-shows-how-far-sea-levels-have-risen-30-years/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2023, 09:27:35 AM

All good, for now.

(https://i.imgur.com/hfqPbIQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2023, 09:37:45 AM

We're having our first days above 90°F here, it's still quite tolerable in the shade, not so much in the sun.  

The roughly inch a decade rise in MSL is interesting, I'd like to know more about how that is measured.  Global mean ocean temperature seems more easily measured than global mean atmospheric, to me.  How much is due to the thermal expansion of water?

A straight line projection would mean about 8 more inches by 2100, the models forecast about 3x that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2023, 06:20:15 PM

60 mph gusts here no rain yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 25, 2023, 07:06:18 PM

Just crossed the 20 year mark in my home.  Been a good home, but now that my kids are almost grown (one in college, one Junior in HS) I can't wait to move back to the country. Been living in a large lot in a small city for 20 years, I want to live on at least 2-5 acres.  By small city I'm talking < 5,000 people, but I want to live in the country again.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2023, 09:38:00 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/cw2eEC9.jpg)

Now dead calm

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2023, 10:03:21 PM

expected overnight low of 57 tonight

just gonna crack the window, not full open with a fan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on June 26, 2023, 09:05:42 AM

Glad to see the potential hurricanes in the Atlantic basin peter out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2023, 09:35:46 AM

Cindy could pop back up, but the chances are very small.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2023, 10:09:54 AM

climate change is killing perfectly good hurricanes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2023, 10:11:34 AM

Well, it's not even July yet, but the surge in Atlantic hurricanes has not yet happened as some predicted due to CC.  I view it as one example of how complex climate is, and how rudimentary our models have to be in comparison.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2023, 03:43:04 PM

Wind and solar power overtakes coal for the first time ever in the US | Live Science (https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/renewable-energy/wind-and-solar-power-overtakes-coal-for-the-first-time-ever-in-the-us?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_content=livescience&fbclid=IwAR3XFaexlZKp_KUhfjFrepRCTpEjjhC-2H8kj8RLTr2FZHfFy73DrjLAWIY)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 27, 2023, 04:13:50 PM

it was generated, but was it consumed?

article didn't say

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2023, 09:14:54 AM

@utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 

Did you stay out of the water in the panhandle? Lots of people died up there this past week.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2023, 01:09:53 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2023, 09:14:54 AM

@utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15)

Did you stay out of the water in the panhandle? Lots of people died up there this past week.

Wow that's news to me.

Nah, we didn't stay out of the water.  There was one day where the riptide seemed a little strong, but nothing crazy.  We had awesome weather and very good water the whole time, one afternoon thunderstorm came through and we watched it from our balcony overlooking the ocean.  It cooled things off nicely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2023, 05:53:01 AM

Held v Montana Climate Lawsuit | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/06/21/held-v-montana-climate-lawsuit/#more-30217)

What she descrribes is indeed a  three ring circu in the courts.  This is another reason nothing practicable can happen, Congress is as bad or worse.  Serious discussion is trumped by innuendo and name calling and silliness and lack of technical ability to understand even simple concepts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2023, 12:17:25 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/8z2e478.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2023, 12:19:12 PM

More action on the other side this week.

(https://i.imgur.com/HDIyXH8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2023, 07:16:26 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/356638166_671073495065050_6442070126341040297_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=r3m2w-E827sAX9L09RK&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfD2UE7eJoYfGGDlseyxs4Trws7WzM0LC18-HmthNAJu5Q&oe=64A69E1F)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2023, 05:08:44 AM

Ouch. That's hot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 02, 2023, 08:42:26 AM

got down to 58 degrees this morning

window had a fan running overnight - 68 degrees in the house right now

coffee feels warm

expected high of 89 with 5mph breeze

perfect day for golf and a beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2023, 08:47:58 AM

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — Attorneys general from 10 states plan to sue the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, saying its failure to review and ensure emissions standards for residential wood-burning stoves has allowed the continued sale of appliances that could worsen pollution.

That means programs that encourage people to trade in older stoves and other wood-burning appliances, such as forced-air furnaces, haven’t necessarily improved air quality, the states say.

“If newer wood heaters do not meet cleaner standards, then programs to change out old wood heaters may provide little health benefits at significant public cost,” the states wrote Thursday in a 60-day notice of intent to sue.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/epa-faces-lawsuit-from-10-states-over-emissions-standards-for-residential-wood-burning-stoves (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/epa-faces-lawsuit-from-10-states-over-emissions-standards-for-residential-wood-burning-stoves)

The states involved are Alaska, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington, as well as the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency.

They allege that the EPA’s current standards aren’t good enough and that even if they were, the agency’s testing and certification program is so ineffective that it has failed to ensure those standards.

The EPA declined to comment on pending litigation.

The states allege that the EPA’s current standards must be reviewed and that its testing and certification program is so ineffective, it has failed to ensure the existing standards.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 03, 2023, 09:44:12 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 02, 2023, 08:42:26 AM

got down to 58 degrees this morning

window had a fan running overnight - 68 degrees in the house right now

coffee feels warm

expected high of 89 with 5mph breeze

perfect day for golf and a beer

Fearless- do you keep an official USGA handicap?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2023, 09:53:35 AM

yes Sir

It's required for some events such as member/guest tournaments

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 03, 2023, 10:35:18 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 03, 2023, 09:53:35 AM

yes Sir

It's required for some events such as member/guest tournaments

I recently signed up for the mobile USGA handicap app. 

very surprised at the results.  But- once you realize what it actually means- I guess it makes sense. 
Most people think it is the average of your last 20 scores- but is actually a representation of your potential based on your best scores.
In other words- my handicap is much lower than I thought.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 03, 2023, 10:51:10 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 03, 2023, 10:35:18 AM

I recently signed up for the mobile USGA handicap app. 

very surprised at the results.  But- once you realize what it actually means- I guess it makes sense. 
Most people think it is the average of your last 20 scores- but is actually a representation of your potential based on your best scores.
In other words- my handicap is much lower than I thought.

It would seem to me that your last 20 scores method is more accurate but alas some folks inflate their handicaps by only turning in high scores

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 03, 2023, 10:55:47 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 03, 2023, 10:51:10 AM

It would seem to me that your last 20 scores method is more accurate but alas some folks inflate their handicaps by only turning in high scores

 No. I put them all in there.  But you’re right- back when I belonged to a club, lots of guys did that BS.  


Then in our tournaments guys with 15 handicaps would shoot a 77 😂

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 03, 2023, 05:18:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 02, 2023, 08:42:26 AM

got down to 58 degrees this morning

window had a fan running overnight - 68 degrees in the house right now

coffee feels warm

expected high of 89 with 5mph breeze

perfect day for golf and a beer

Practically a cold front here today, only hit 94 at my house and tomorrow the predicted high is 93.  Brrrrrrr.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2023, 10:12:48 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 03, 2023, 10:51:10 AM

It would seem to me that your last 20 scores method is more accurate but alas some folks inflate their handicaps by only turning in high scores

some guys just put in low scores - to look good
then get penalized at the tournament


yes, the GHIN takes the 10 best scores of the last 20
so, in practice, you should only shoot your "handicap" about 2 times out of 10

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 05, 2023, 08:57:22 AM

Back in 1776 we knew little about how weather works. Science hadn't established weather systems which move from place-to-place carried by winds miles above our heads. But people were still interested in weather.

Take Thomas Jefferson whose handwriting is pictured in the attached image. Jefferson kept a detailed weather log including during his trip to Philly.

The high temperature was probably reached between Jefferson's 1:00 PM and 9:00 PM observations which had readings in the 70s. Today we calculate Philadelphia's average high on 4July as 88 degrees. I'm sure without air conditioning or modern day insulation being a founder in Independence Hall was uncomfortably warm.

If you're wondering about 'official' weather readings, we have observations in some cases to the mid-1800s. Weather stations were few and far between then. Philadelphia didn't get regular obs until 1940.


(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/358106204_725804766220972_4531481059538194566_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=ZsnMeIS5dYIAX-WyB7W&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfBbWjbl2mWZAowFYdikrgLfEy1PHkW5oA5iNXn6oFhQvQ&oe=64A9F717)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on July 05, 2023, 12:47:17 PM

I believe the record high for Philadelphia on July 4th is 103 F in 1966.  Clearly Global Cooling is at work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2023, 01:54:13 PM

Today back home is brutal. Kinda happy to be in far Northern IL.

(https://i.imgur.com/g6NnNRs.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2023, 08:23:40 PM

Official heat warnings here, it reached 80 F

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2023, 08:31:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 05, 2023, 08:23:40 PM

Official heat warnings here, it reached 80 F

oh the humanity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2023, 02:31:03 PM

Need to find a different desert to move to now.

Housing Market 2023: New Homes Just Got Banned in a Major American City — Is Yours Next? (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/housing-market-2023-new-homes-just-got-banned-in-a-major-american-city-is-yours-next/ar-AA1dzzSq?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fc1b80e9b127493981f519171ae76668&ei=10)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 07, 2023, 02:50:09 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2023, 02:31:03 PM

Need to find a different desert to move to now.

Housing Market 2023: New Homes Just Got Banned in a Major American City — Is Yours Next? (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/housing-market-2023-new-homes-just-got-banned-in-a-major-american-city-is-yours-next/ar-AA1dzzSq?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fc1b80e9b127493981f519171ae76668&ei=10)

Las Vegas says "Hi!"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 07, 2023, 04:24:06 PM

Been getting gully washers the last couple of weeks after recieving 1/10 of an inch for 3 weeks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2023, 08:44:16 PM

It's going to be 120 next Sunday in Phoenix.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2023, 09:04:44 AM

85 with a breeze and sun here this afternoon

golf weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2023, 04:19:36 PM

It was relatively pleasant here today, high of 85°F.  I went out and threw the baseball for 35 minutes and ran steps, got soaked as usual, but it wasn't bad.  It's actually hotter in Cincy at the moment (barely).

Usually when one region has unusual heat, another is unusually cool, and the "news" often feature the one and not the other.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 01:01:13 PM

https://youtu.be/fXRJNClcyu4

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2023, 01:07:56 PM

Something I don't understand about El Nino is how it could impact GLOBAL temperatures.  If some parts warm, fine, but other parts should be cooler as a result.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 02:03:06 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 01:01:13 PM

https://youtu.be/fXRJNClcyu4

Lots of discussion on the results but little discussion on the cause

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 02:41:54 PM

maybe because the NASA chief doesn't know for sure?
maybe b cauz the interviewer can't handle the truth?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 02:50:28 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 02:41:54 PM

maybe because the NASA chief doesn't know for sure?
maybe b cauz the interviewer can't handle the truth?

I pick number 1

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 03:26:28 PM

good for you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 03:36:14 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 02:03:06 PM

Lots of discussion on the results but little discussion on the cause

Well, for most adults in this discussion the cause (emissions) is understood. But she did explicitly state (towards the end) that carbon and methane emissions are driving this warming. 

I know you don't believe that. But it's not like she was avoiding the subject. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 03:44:00 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 03:36:14 PM

Well, for most adults in this discussion the cause (emissions) is understood. But she did explicitly state (towards the end) that carbon and methane emissions are driving this warming.

I know you don't believe that. But it's not like she was avoiding the subject.

but the key question is

is the carbon and methane theory the only possible cause or could there be other causes as yet undiscovered

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2023, 03:47:11 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 02:03:06 PM

Lots of discussion on the results but little discussion on the cause

I think the discussion is more about the impact of climate change than the cause.  I don't think it was meant to go into the specifics of what causes CC.  That could take a while, and would probably bore much of the audience.

I still hesitate to conflate high temperatures in some places with Climate Change.  It gets hot in summer, duh.  Now when we might see valid statistical evidence for getting warmer, then I would be on board.  As I noted, it can be unusually hot in one region and unusually cool in another.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2023, 03:50:16 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 03:44:00 PM

but the key question is

is the carbon and methane theory the only possible cause or could there be other causes as yet undiscovered

Climatologists have explored other causes, principally variations in solar output and natural variability in climate (things like micro-Malinkovitch Cycles etc.).  There is some discussion about solar output here and there, but the "consensus" seems to be that isn't enough of a factor.  One rather interesting, but not widely accepted concept, is that "we" are headed into a cooling period that is being offset by warming due to CO2.  I have no opinion on that one except that it isn't widely accepted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 04:19:52 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 03:44:00 PM

but the key question is

is the carbon and methane theory the only possible cause or could there be other causes as yet undiscovered

It's science. Very few things are ever "the only possible cause", but the job of science is to try to best understand the world and determine what the most probable causes are based on evidence, experimentation, logic, and study. 

Is there another possible theory? Of course. Give me a 12-pack and I'll spin out a couple dozen possible theories. 

Right now, greenhouse gas theory that best explains what we see, and the more we study, the more that its predictions seem to be being fulfilled. 

But I'm sure if you are in the position where you don't want to accept that, you can pin your hopes on it being something else "as yet undiscovered."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 04:26:33 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 04:19:52 PM

It's science. Very few things are ever "the only possible cause", but the job of science is to try to best understand the world and determine what the most probable causes are based on evidence, experimentation, logic, and study.

Is there another possible theory? Of course. Give me a 12-pack and I'll spin out a couple dozen possible theories.

Right now, greenhouse gas theory that best explains what we see, and the more we study, the more that its predictions seem to be being fulfilled.

But I'm sure if you are in the position where you don't want to accept that, you can pin your hopes on it being something else "as yet undiscovered."

Please flick that chip off your shoulder

Yes Im skeptical that 120 ppm is causing the majority of CC but I have no hopes one way or another

bottom line no one has proven that man made co2 and methane causes CC only that it appears to be the case

when science proves it then Im on board

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 05:04:05 PM

That's not really how it works.

"Science" is merely the most likely explanation based on the available evidence.  If you're waiting for more evidence, that's fine, but unlikely to happen anytime soon...which makes it a convenient holding pattern opportunity.
.
One fact that is evident is not that the planet doesn't ebb and flow temperature-wise, it's that since humanity started making it's contribution to the skies, the rate of temp change is unnaturally fast.  Nature adapts slowly and we're hitting the fast-forward button.
.
There's nothing wrong with waiting for more evidence, but only if it's done in good faith.  And just to be frank, longhorn, anytime you mention skepticism, I'm skeptical of you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 05:30:50 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 05:04:05 PM

That's not really how it works.

"Science" is merely the most likely explanation based on the available evidence.  If you're waiting for more evidence, that's fine, but unlikely to happen anytime soon...which makes it a convenient holding pattern opportunity.
.
One fact that is evident is not that the planet doesn't ebb and flow temperature-wise, it's that since humanity started making it's contribution to the skies, the rate of temp change is unnaturally fast.  Nature adapts slowly and we're hitting the fast-forward button.
.
There's nothing wrong with waiting for more evidence, but only if it's done in good faith.  And just to be frank, longhorn, anytime you mention skepticism, I'm skeptical of you.

oh well its a heavy burden but Ill just have to try to go on living

do you have any idea just how small 120 ppm is

its like adding 1 oz to 78 gallons and expecting that to make a difference

so yes until some kind of proof comes along Ill just remain skeptical

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 05:57:29 PM

I think one major problem is, you just don't seem to understand how particle densities work.  Extremely small particle densities can have incredibly strong effects.

25 ppm of arsine gas is lethal with extended exposure.  Do you have any idea how small 25 ppm is?  It's like adding 1/4 oz to 78 gallons and expecting it to make a difference.  Which, of course, it does.  Because it will KILL you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 05:59:02 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 04:26:33 PM

bottom line no one has proven that man made co2 and methane causes CC only that it appears to be the case

when science proves it then Im on board

"Proof" is an interesting word in science. It's mostly used when you can run experiments in closed systems, removing as many extraneous variables as possible, in order to isolate an effect that you're looking to demonstrate. 

We *know* that "greenhouse gases" trap infrared energy. That is 100% proven in closed system experiments. 

However the Earth is not a closed system. We can't run an experiment with 50 identical Earths where we emit different amounts of CO2/methane and watch the results. We only have the one. It's a complex system. We can't easily remove extraneous variables. So "proof" is basically off the table. 

What we can do is observe, and try to build the model of what happens to the output with certain inputs, and then what we can do is predict what will happen if we keep adding those same inputs. Right now, what we're seeing is that the predictions are matching the model. 

So you'll never have 100% proof. The question is what level of confidence you need to have to make behavioral changes. 90%? 95%? 99%?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:04:17 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 05:57:29 PM

I think one major problem is, you just don't seem to understand how particle densities work.  Extremely small particle densities can have incredibly strong effects.

25 ppm of arsine gas is lethal with extended exposure.  Do you have any idea how small 25 ppm is?  It's like adding 1/4 oz to 78 gallons and expecting it to make a difference.  Which, of course, it does.  Because it will KILL you.

yes I thought of that but Im still unconvinced that its causing the entire earth to warm

just chalk it up to a non scientist view point which I realize is probably useless but thats just how I feel

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 06:07:02 PM

Well you sure can't argue science against feelings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 06:08:26 PM

Don’t tell me what my responsibility is. I’m an artist. My responsibility is to write songs that express what I feel. I don’t work for you, I don’t think for you, and I don’t belong to anybody...[Bob  Dylan]

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/358632184_809326007714559_5152168368289565261_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=dOSVrcfyVVMAX-VOxsD&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfC8adTp0SyEQ2FldEAItSD35W5QkTH4XxzW4TKrZogAnA&oe=64B35A97)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:10:18 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 05:59:02 PM

"Proof" is an interesting word in science. It's mostly used when you can run experiments in closed systems, removing as many extraneous variables as possible, in order to isolate an effect that you're looking to demonstrate.

We *know* that "greenhouse gases" trap infrared energy. That is 100% proven in closed system experiments.

However the Earth is not a closed system. We can't run an experiment with 50 identical Earths where we emit different amounts of CO2/methane and watch the results. We only have the one. It's a complex system. We can't easily remove extraneous variables. So "proof" is basically off the table.

What we can do is observe, and try to build the model of what happens to the output with certain inputs, and then what we can do is predict what will happen if we keep adding those same inputs. Right now, what we're seeing is that the predictions are matching the model.

So you'll never have 100% proof. The question is what level of confidence you need to have to make behavioral changes. 90%? 95%? 99%?

Has anyone even tried to do this with a manufactured earth like atmosphere?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 06:11:34 PM

“Not that I condone fascism, or any -ism for that matter. -Ism's in my opinion are not good. A person should not believe in an -ism, he should believe in himself. I quote John Lennon, "I don't believe in Beatles, I just believe in me." Good point there. After all, he was the walrus. I could be the walrus. I'd still have to bum rides off people.” - Ferris Bueller

(https://i.imgur.com/xi1N2TS.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 06:12:23 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 05:59:02 PM

So you'll never have 100% proof. The question is what level of confidence you need to have to make behavioral changes. 90%? 95%? 99%?

This.
.
"Proof" is simply enough evidence to convince enough scientists to come to a consensus conclusion based on existing evidence.
If no amount of evidence is "enough" for you, then longhorn can claim skepticism while simply covering his eyes and ears to the general consensus.
But we know what it actually is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 06:13:34 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:10:18 PM

Has anyone even tried to do this with a manufactured earth like atmosphere?

It doesn't matter.  The proof you want could exist and you'd just cast doubt on the source.  
It's all a big waste of time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 06:15:30 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:10:18 PM

Has anyone even tried to do this with a manufactured earth like atmosphere?

Yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:17:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 05:59:02 PM

"Proof" is an interesting word in science. It's mostly used when you can run experiments in closed systems, removing as many extraneous variables as possible, in order to isolate an effect that you're looking to demonstrate.

We *know* that "greenhouse gases" trap infrared energy. That is 100% proven in closed system experiments.

However the Earth is not a closed system. We can't run an experiment with 50 identical Earths where we emit different amounts of CO2/methane and watch the results. We only have the one. It's a complex system. We can't easily remove extraneous variables. So "proof" is basically off the table.

What we can do is observe, and try to build the model of what happens to the output with certain inputs, and then what we can do is predict what will happen if we keep adding those same inputs. Right now, what we're seeing is that the predictions are matching the model.

So you'll never have 100% proof. The question is what level of confidence you need to have to make behavioral changes. 90%? 95%? 99%?

What scientists are saying is that the selected inputs co2 etc is causing the output and Im saying how do we know the output is being caused by their nominated inputs

all we are really doing is monitoring the results and guessing our selected inputs is the cause

maybe there are other inputs that should be considered

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:17:44 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 06:15:30 PM

Yes.

and what was the result

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 06:18:37 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:17:14 PM

maybe there are other inputs that should be considered

Yeah, maybe god's doing it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 06:24:11 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:17:14 PM

What scientists are saying is that the selected inputs co2 etc is causing the output and Im saying how do we know the output is being caused by their nominated inputs

all we are really doing is monitoring the results and guessing our selected inputs is the cause

maybe there are other inputs that should be considered

Have you read this? I know I've posted it a dozen times or so... https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

It goes into the very long (>180 years) history of this field of study. Do you really think that if there was some other input that was MORE controlling than CO2 and methane, someone wouldn't have considered it yet? 

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:17:44 PM

and what was the result

• Increased water vapor >>>>> increased temp
• Increased methane >>>>> increased temp
• Increased CO2 >>>>> increased temp

Those are the most powerful greenhouse gases, in order. Water vapor is not in secular growth in the atmosphere. The other two are. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 06:33:52 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 06:24:11 PM

Water vapor is not in secular growth in the atmosphere. The other two are.

Well, unless you're in New Orleans.  Or Houston.  Seems like the humidity gets worse every time I visit. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 11, 2023, 06:37:57 PM

Greenpeace Co-Founder Patrick Moore explains to ELN why he believes carbon dioxide is "good" and climate change is a "fabrication".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzVMSxszudo

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 06:38:53 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 06:33:52 PM

Well, unless you're in New Orleans.  Or Houston.  Seems like the humidity gets worse every time I visit. ;)

You're probably just getting old. :57:

But IMHO at the micro level there could be reasons why warming would lead to more localized humidity. More evaporation in hot areas near water might cause local increases in humidity. But I'm just spitballing that, I have no evidence either way. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 06:44:34 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 06:38:53 PM

You're probably just getting old. :57:

But IMHO at the micro level there could be reasons why warming would lead to more localized humidity. More evaporation in hot areas near water might cause local increases in humidity. But I'm just spitballing that, I have no evidence either way.

I'm actually just kidding around.  I was in NOLA two weeks ago, high temps were around 95, and humidity was high, as it typically is there.

But it felt deliciously balmy compared to the 105 I'd left in Austin.

And then there were those 84-88 degree days on the Florida coast in Pensacola.  Pure bliss.  I wanted to stay forever.  I think I might just move there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:47:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 06:24:11 PM

Have you read this? I know I've posted it a dozen times or so... https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

It goes into the very long (>180 years) history of this field of study. Do you really think that if there was some other input that was MORE controlling than CO2 and methane, someone wouldn't have considered it yet?

• Increased water vapor >>>>> increased temp
• Increased methane >>>>> increased temp
• Increased CO2 >>>>> increased temp

Those are the most powerful greenhouse gases, in order. Water vapor is not in secular growth in the atmosphere. The other two are.

You said that scientists actually constructed a replica of earths atmosphere and tested it by varying the co2 mixture

if so do you have the published report on this

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:48:09 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 06:44:34 PM

I'm actually just kidding around.  I was in NOLA two weeks ago, high temps were around 95, and humidity was high, as it typically is there.

But it felt deliciously balmy compared to the 105 I'd left in Austin.

And then there were those 84-88 degree days on the Florida coast in Pensacola.  Pure bliss.  I wanted to stay forever.  I think I might just move there.

sandbagger

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 06:59:15 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 06:12:23 PM

This.
.
"Proof" is simply enough evidence to convince enough scientists to come to a consensus conclusion based on existing evidence.
If no amount of evidence is "enough" for you, then longhorn can claim skepticism while simply covering his eyes and ears to the general consensus.
But we know what it actually is.

define enough


knowing full well that the existing evidence may lead to the wrong conclusion

I don't know that there is a consensus among enough scientists to declare the COVID vaccines right or wrong
and there's plenty of existing evidence

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 07:01:34 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:48:09 PM

sandbagger

Kids made some sand castles at the beach but I don't recall any bags being involved.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 07:13:55 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 07:01:34 PM

Kids made some sand castles at the beach but I don't recall any bags being involved.

I was speaking about you saying you were going to move to Florida

if you do take some of those West Coast folks with you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 07:42:05 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 06:47:14 PM

You said that scientists actually constructed a replica of earths atmosphere and tested it by varying the co2 mixture

if so do you have the published report on this

Literally, high school students do this experiment: https://digitalcommons.imsa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1007&context=eco_disrupt

It's absolutely a replica of earth's atmosphere with varying the CO2, because it's literally earth's atmosphere with CO2 injection (in this case by dropping alka seltzer in water). 

This is not new. This is basic stuff. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 07:51:34 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 07:42:05 PM

Literally, high school students do this experiment: https://digitalcommons.imsa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1007&context=eco_disrupt

It's absolutely a replica of earth's atmosphere with varying the CO2, because it's literally earth's atmosphere with CO2 injection (in this case by dropping alka seltzer in water).

This is not new. This is basic stuff.

so is the alka seltzer equal to 120 ppm

no doubt an increase in co2 raises the temp if its enough co2 to do so

but not sure this tests it at 120 ppm

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 08:23:06 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2023, 07:42:05 PM

This is not new. This is basic stuff.

Ohhhh what a relative phrase, lol.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 08:26:13 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 06:59:15 PM

define enough


knowing full well that the existing evidence may lead to the wrong conclusion

I don't know that there is a consensus among enough scientists to declare the COVID vaccines right or wrong
and there's plenty of existing evidence

Enough:  for a general consensus to form based on the available data. If there is no consensus (as with your alleged COVID example), then it's not enough.
The great thing about science is that it's a self-sharpening tool.  No need to use hope as a strategy, just more data.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2023, 08:53:29 PM

That CO2 is a greenhouse gas is about as solidly KNOWN as anything in science.  Now, one can question climate models, I do myself, as climate is extremelly complex.

The more I read about all this the more I get confused, really, the topic is basically beyond my efforts.  So, what politicians have done is get a group of folks together to prepare a broad summary, we call this the IPCC Report, which anyone can read, the summary thereof is not very complex nor long.  Whether they are right or not is a valid question, but certainly is beyond my pay grade.  All models are wrong, some models are useful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 09:27:31 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 08:26:13 PM

Enough:  for a general consensus to form based on the available data. If there is no consensus (as with your alleged COVID example), then it's not enough.

Consensus Definition & Meaning

An opinion or position reached by a group as a whole. An opinion held by all or most.

_____________________

most = 51%?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2023, 10:41:20 PM

The problem isn't at what % a consensus is formed, it's that one side learns what the evidence suggests and if it goes against their ideology, they pretend to suddenly be skeptical.
But instead of being skeptical due to practical reasons, it's simply to cast doubt, just because.  It's mostly a delay ploy in order to get some of their own research - just enough to launch a "what about-ism" campaign.  
.
I'm not sure when or even why conservatives decided "fuck the environment" was the party line, but that was a choice.  
Obviously, not all conservatives feel that way, but it's definitely the unofficial policy of the party.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 10:52:21 PM

I think many conservatives would like to do better with the environment

if the effort was cost effective and would actually help

but, it seems party lines rule every argument

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 10:52:35 PM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-the-climate-heal-itself-cumulus-cirrus-clouds-negative-feedback-un-30bbbef0?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR0tctfEV7YdWhi7NiL_cf6RbJmIcOFuFmi7vP0lTumAKKOInTEAPtw-l3s (https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-the-climate-heal-itself-cumulus-cirrus-clouds-negative-feedback-un-30bbbef0?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR0tctfEV7YdWhi7NiL_cf6RbJmIcOFuFmi7vP0lTumAKKOInTEAPtw-l3s)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 11:16:41 PM

take this to the other thread

no need for this discussion to become political

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 06:43:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 11, 2023, 10:52:21 PM

I think many conservatives would like to do better with the environment

if the effort was cost effective and would actually help

but, it seems party lines rule every argument

Few folks are "anti-environment", as that position is nonsensical.  As noted, there can be a discussion about urgency, cost, benefit, etc. that is legitimate in my view.  I've pointed out on numerous occasions with hard data how the "steps" being taken now at considerable expense cannot have any measurable impact on climate using the IPCC's own models.  The MIT Climate Group has said the same thing.  I've heard we'd need $50 TRILLION to get to net zero just in the US by 2050.  That isn't practable, it's not going to happen, "we" are going to throw a few billions at it and wonder why it makes no difference.

That's why a serious plan is needed showing costs, benefits (using the accepted models), and why we need to start now.  Such a plan would be looked at askance even by liberals.  And that is why no such plan exists.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 12, 2023, 08:11:00 AM

Plant Trees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2023, 08:15:51 AM

Quote from: utee94 on July 11, 2023, 06:44:34 PM

I'm actually just kidding around.  I was in NOLA two weeks ago, high temps were around 95, and humidity was high, as it typically is there.

But it felt deliciously balmy compared to the 105 I'd left in Austin.

And then there were those 84-88 degree days on the Florida coast in Pensacola.  Pure bliss.  I wanted to stay forever.  I think I might just move there.

Welcome!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 08:25:56 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 12, 2023, 08:11:00 AM

Plant Trees

That can work but only if you bury them later, rather deep.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 08:44:55 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 11, 2023, 05:30:50 PM

oh well its a heavy burden but Ill just have to try to go on living

do you have any idea just how small 120 ppm is

its like adding 1 oz to 78 gallons and expecting that to make a difference

so yes until some kind of proof comes along Ill just remain skeptical

Jesus, I work in the chemicals industry, even a few PPM is huge.  We have chemicals we mix together, nothing happens.  Inject a few ppm of a certain catalyst, or sometimes a few parts per BILLION, and wham !  You get a reaction, and new chemicals.  

Per your 1 oz to 78.....put one oz of water in 78 gallons of gasoline and let me know how that goes (unfiltered to your engine).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 08:49:11 AM

Quote from: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 08:44:55 AM

Jesus, I work in the chemicals industry, even a few PPM is huge.  We have chemicals we mix together, nothing happens.  Inject a few ppm of a certain catalyst, or sometimes a few parts per BILLION, and wham !  You get a reaction, and new chemicals. 

Per your 1 oz to 78.....put one oz of water in 78 gallons of gasoline and let me know how that goes (unfiltered to your engine). 

we are not talking about a chemical reaction

we are talking about the ability to retain the heat generated from the sun

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 08:57:57 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 12, 2023, 08:11:00 AM

Plant Trees

yup

no effort or focus on planting trees or on the limiting of cutting down trees and burning them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 08:58:54 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 08:49:11 AM

we are not talking about a chemical reaction

we are talking about the ability to retain the heat generated from the sun

Either way, your premise that "120 PPM" doesn't seem like much is quite preposterous.  

I think we're smart enough to realize that like any good potential crisis, we recognize that many politicians are using this as a power grab to exert their will.  For guys like us, we know that curbing GHG (green house gas) emissions means we won't be able to buy gasoline as cheap or as plentiful, nor use natural gas for our home, and we probably won't be able to have everyday conveniences like cheap plastic packaging for food, beverages, etc.  We also know that the truly rich won't change a thing about their lives, they'll still have their private jets and yachts, and that doesn't sit well.  

Both things can be true. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 09:05:24 AM

Some of the more prominent wealthy will "virtue signal", as will many larger companies out there.  They won't really do much at all but they will highlight some insignificant things they are doing, like Exxon and fuel from algae.  Gimmicks in other words, or marketing.

Some folks with private jets will claim to buy offsets, and maybe some do.  (I'm dubious how these offsets actually work but that's another story.)

And of course a lot of the above will make "pledges" of what they are "going to do", which is akin to someone pledging to lose weight often as not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 09:25:12 AM

Quote from: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 08:58:54 AM

Either way, your premise that "120 PPM" doesn't seem like much is quite preposterous. 

and maybe it is but adding 1 oz to 78 gallons to help it retain heat seems like a stretch

but Id be the first to tell you how unqualified I am in that field

Im not going to run for President over it

Its just a personal thought

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 09:25:25 AM

I'd guess private jets are a small percentage of CO2 generation compared to commercial airlines

better to simply ban all air travel for leisure and for 90% of business

the only way for this to save the planet is for extreme changes in lifestyle

not just throwing $$$ at a problem

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 09:26:45 AM

1 oz of water in 78 gallons of fuel isn't going to cause a problem in my Chevy truck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 09:35:05 AM

One item about the CO2 "model" is important, I think, as one can calculate rather easily the impact of more CO2 ALONE as a single variable on global temperatures, and the effect really is quite small, a couple tenths as I recall.  Here is where it gets tricky of course.

Another issue is that a SLIGHT imbalance in the heat in/heat out ratio can over time exert a large change in global T.  Heat is not the same as temperature of course, heat can be a far more influential factor.  Imagine the heat balance shifts by 0.1%, over time that can be crucial.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 09:36:32 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 08:49:11 AM

we are not talking about a chemical reaction

we are talking about the ability to retain the heat generated from the sun

We've got an atmosphere made up of numerous gasses at different temperatures and pressures at different layers, of which the percentages of said gasses are being altered by us (as little or as much as you want to acknowledge), but it's not a chemical reaction?
Perhaps not by definition, but this specification screams "nuh uh" rather than being a genuine reason to resist the scientific consensus.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 09:37:40 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 09:25:25 AM

I'd guess private jets are a small percentage of CO2 generation compared to commercial airlines

better to simply ban all air travel for leisure and for 90% of business

the only way for this to save the planet is for extreme changes in lifestyle

not just throwing $$$ at a problem

Great point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 09:40:30 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 09:36:32 AM

We've got an atmosphere made up of numerous gasses at different temperatures and pressures at different layers, of which the percentages of said gasses are being altered by us (as little or as much as you want to acknowledge), but it's not a chemical reaction?
Perhaps not by definition, but this specification screams "nuh uh" rather than being a genuine reason to resist the scientific consensus.

No, it's not.  A chemical reaction by definition requires some compound to be converted into another compound (or element).  Changing a mixture is not that.

Definitions are important when available and clear cut.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 09:43:05 AM

yup, like chili

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 09:44:55 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 09:40:30 AM

No, it's not.  A chemical reaction by definition requires some compound to be converted into another compound (or element).  Changing a mixture is not that.

Definitions are important when available and clear cut.

Jesus fucking Christ.
I specifically said NOT BY DEFINITION.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 09:46:11 AM

There are some chemical reactions in all of this, but most of it is physics.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 09:47:08 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 09:44:55 AM

Jesus fucking Christ.
I specifically said NOT BY DEFINITION.

You asked the question, I provided the answer.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 10:29:26 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 09:25:12 AM

and maybe it is but adding 1 oz to 78 gallons to help it retain heat seems like a stretch

but Id be the first to tell you how unqualified I am in that field

Im not going to run for President over it

Its just a personal thought

Again, climate science is 200 years old. How did the greenhouse gas theory even start? 

It was a bunch of scientists who didn't understand why the Earth wasn't a lifeless iceball. 

You know the difference between "lifeless iceball" and "lush, green, beautiful, life-supporting Earth"? 280 ppm. 

Literally without 280 ppm of CO2 we'd have a dead planet. 

But you think increasing that a further 50% will have no effect. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 10:29:31 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 09:25:25 AM

I'd guess private jets are a small percentage of CO2 generation compared to commercial airlines

better to simply ban all air travel for leisure and for 90% of business

the only way for this to save the planet is for extreme changes in lifestyle

not just throwing $$$ at a problem

And by that token my personal contribution to CO2 generation is actually quite miniscule.  So therefore I am exempt.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 10:39:59 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 10:29:26 AM

Again, climate science is 200 years old. How did the greenhouse gas theory even start?

It was a bunch of scientists who didn't understand why the Earth wasn't a lifeless iceball.

You know the difference between "lifeless iceball" and "lush, green, beautiful, life-supporting Earth"? 280 ppm.

Literally without 280 ppm of CO2 we'd have a dead planet.

But you think increasing that a further 50% will have no effect.

dont we have water vapor also as a GH gas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 10:49:34 AM

Quote from: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 10:29:31 AM

And by that token my personal contribution to CO2 generation is actually quite miniscule.  So therefore I am exempt. 

I've been on one flight in the past 7 years
from Omaha to San Diego and back
I could have skipped that one - was for work

My electric bill is up about $10 this month from the previous two months - $61

I could do more by walking on the golf course instead of riding in a cart, but I'm doing more than most

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 10:52:20 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 10:39:59 AM

dont we have water vapor also as a GH gas

You don't have water vapor if the earth is a lifeless iceball. All the water will be frozen. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 10:53:54 AM

we would all be frozen as well and therefore not arguing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 11:03:44 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 10:52:20 AM

You don't have water vapor if the earth is a lifeless iceball. All the water will be frozen.

not very realistic

are we going to kill all vegetation

water vapor by volume represents 80 to 90 percent by volume of all GH gases

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 11:10:27 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 11:03:44 AM

not very realistic

are we going to kill all vegetation

water vapor by volume represents 80 to 90 percent by volume of all GH gases

Yes, but we have pretty good history here. 

180 ppm = ice age (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page4.php)
280 ppm = interglacial (warm) period
400 ppm = really hot period
 (https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/climate-milestone-earths-co2-level-passes-400-ppm/)

Quote

On May 9, 2013, an instrument near the summit of Mauna Loa in Hawai'i, United States, recorded a long-awaited climate milestone: the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2)in the atmosphere there had exceeded 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in 55 years of measurement—and probably more than thre million years of Earth history.

The last time the concentration of Earth's main greenhouse gas reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the high Arctic. Seas were at least 9.1 meters (30 feet higher)—at a level that today would inundate major cities around the world.

The planet was about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 11:24:35 AM

Water vapor is a GHG.  It's nearly all in the lower troposphere of course.

It's a "forcing factor" I mentioned above.  Stipulate that our climate heats up by 0.1°C, that means more water vapor can be present (will be present).  More of that means more heat retention, which means more water vapor, and so on.  This is on way a small effect can compound or spiral into a large effect.

Clouds are more complex factors as they both keep heat in and increase our albedo reflecting more "heat" into space.  This is a simple step into the complexity of climate models.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 11:32:44 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 10:39:59 AM

dont we have water vapor also as a GH gas

Here's your what about-ism.  What about water vapor?  What about this other random thing?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 11:36:23 AM

It's a legitimate question for someone trying to understand all of this.  Most folks just accept whatever they are told to believe by whichever political party and leave it at that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 11:39:59 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 11:32:44 AM

Here's your what about-ism.  What about water vapor?  What about this other random thing? 

Hey OAM get a hobby cause youre not a very good conversationalist

you add absolutely nothing to this topic

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 11:40:57 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 11:39:59 AM

Hey OAM get a hobby cause youre not a very good conversationalist

you add absolutely nothing to this topic

nothing > misinformation

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 11:43:07 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 11:40:57 AM

nothing > misinformation

when does school start

cant wait

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 11:44:36 AM

Water vapor is definitely a GHG, but it’s just part of the equation and we can’t really change that knob. 

Methane is a quite effective GHG, much more than CO2. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 11:45:27 AM

Asking a questions can't be somehow "misinformation", perhaps with rare exceptions where it's a loaded question.

"We" can discuss the ins and outs of climate change without the ad hominem, one might hope.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 11:53:46 AM

Quote from: Gigem on July 12, 2023, 11:44:36 AM

Water vapor is definitely a GHG, but it’s just part of the equation and we can’t really change that knob.

why couldn't we change it?
I've been hearing about a water shortage for decades
if more ice melts, isn't there a change there will be more water vapor ?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 11:57:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 11:45:27 AM

Asking a questions can't be somehow "misinformation", perhaps with rare exceptions where it's a loaded question.

"We" can discuss the ins and outs of climate change without the ad hominem, one might hope.

Yes, but 320 has been asking the same "questions" for months and not bothering to do any reading or study that might conflict with his assertion that '120 ppm is a really small number and I just feel it isn't big enough to matter.'

I wouldn't call it "misinformation", I would call it "participating in a debate subject in bad faith." 

I.e. months back when you and I had a discussion about EV battery charging rates (i.e. would smaller/larger packs charge faster), I knew you were making a good faith effort to understand what I was saying, and I was not doing a great job of explaining it, but eventually we found common ground. 

I don't see that in this case. One side is presenting evidence. The other is beholden to "feelings" and isn't even engaging the evidence. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:00:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 11:45:27 AM

Asking a questions can't be somehow "misinformation", perhaps with rare exceptions where it's a loaded question.

"We" can discuss the ins and outs of climate change without the ad hominem, one might hope.

FFS

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 12:03:58 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 11:57:13 AM

I.e. months back when you and I had a discussion about EV battery charging rates (i.e. would smaller/larger packs charge faster), I knew you were making a good faith effort to understand what I was saying, and I was not doing a great job of explaining it, but eventually we found common ground.

Actually, I think you did a fine job, I was just being obtuse.  I also think he's asking some new questions now.  The responses won't change his mind, but to me they are new questions, and I'm OK with that.  If he simply believes that an increase in CO2 levels from 280 to 420 can't have any impact, that too is OK with me.  I don't agree with it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 12:05:18 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 11:53:46 AM

why couldn't we change it?
I've been hearing about a water shortage for decades
if more ice melts, isn't there a change there will be more water vapor ?

There is no such thing as a "water shortage" at the planet level. The issue we have is droughts which cause a shortage of freshwater suitable for human consumption. But the Earth has plenty of water.

And creating more water vapor via warming is likely a bad thing as it's a GHG and would result in even more warming. However there is SOME suggestion that it would create more clouds which might reflect the sun's energy. But there are other suggestions that cloud levels are at lower altitude than the CO2 which is capturing IR in the upper atmosphere, so it's possible that clouds reflecting sunlight wouldn't actually prevent that warming. It's a very complex topic, and we don't know if increased water vapor in the atmosphere would be a positive or negative feedback to warming. 

The answer to "why couldn't we change it" is that water vapor in the air is an effect, not a cause. We can't change the total amount of water on the planet. We could boil a bunch of it, turning it into vapor, but it would just rain right back down on us because we can't keep it in the atmosphere. It's a cycle. 

There is also a carbon cycle. CO2 is emitted by natural sources (respiration, decomposing plants, volcanoes) and it is taken up by natural sources (growing plants, the ocean). But CO2 is more persistent. While water vapor levels can change on the daily level, CO2 changes occur over decades or centuries. The difference is that we have been emitting enough CO2 to overcome the Earth's ability to sink that carbon into new plants or the oceans, at least on a time scale of importance to human interests. Hence per Gigem it is actually a knob that we can turn. We've increased atmospheric CO2 (and methane) due to human activity, and it's something that we could reduce if we determined it was important enough.

Meaningfully, we have no knob to turn on water vapor. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:24:26 PM

This is how what about-ism works.
Sidetrack the conversation so that the prudent people wind up talking about water vapor.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 12:28:00 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 11:57:13 AM

Yes, but 320 has been asking the same "questions" for months and not bothering to do any reading or study that might conflict with his assertion that '120 ppm is a really small number and I just feel it isn't big enough to matter.'

I wouldn't call it "misinformation", I would call it "participating in a debate subject in bad faith."

I.e. months back when you and I had a discussion about EV battery charging rates (i.e. would smaller/larger packs charge faster), I knew you were making a good faith effort to understand what I was saying, and I was not doing a great job of explaining it, but eventually we found common ground.

I don't see that in this case. One side is presenting evidence. The other is beholden to "feelings" and isn't even engaging the evidence.

whats bad faith

as I previously said this is not the hill I want to die on

so if you find my questions not in good faith just dont interject anything in response to my posts

I have no problem with you disagreeing with me but you obviously have a big problem because we dont see eye to eye

so just look the other way when I post please feel free to believe what you want and I will do the same

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 12:29:01 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:24:26 PM

This is how what about-ism works.
Sidetrack the conversation so that the prudent people wind up talking about water vapor. 

Do you think water vapor has no place in this discussion?

I personally think it's an interesting factor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:29:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 12:29:01 PM

Do you think water vapor has no place in this discussion?

I personally think it's an interesting factor.

I couldn't care less what you think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 12:29:46 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:24:26 PM

This is how what about-ism works.
Sidetrack the conversation so that the prudent people wind up talking about water vapor. 

why do you feel the need to turn everything into politics take these thoughts to the proper thread please

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:31:00 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 12:28:00 PM

whats bad faith

as I previously said this is not the hill I want to die on

so if you find my questions not in good faith just dont interject anything in response to my posts

I have no problem with you disagreeing with me but you obviously have a big problem because we dont see eye to eye

so just look the other way when I post please feel free to believe what you want and I will do the same

There is nothing that someone could say in this thread to change your mind.
You're pretending to converse here, but it's not genuine.  
That's bad faith.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 12:31:16 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:29:37 PM

I couldn't care less what you think.

wow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:31:22 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 12:29:46 PM

why do you feel the need to turn everything into politics take these thoughts to the proper thread please

What's political about what I posted?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 12:32:47 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2023, 12:31:00 PM

There is nothing that someone could say in this thread to change your mind.
You're pretending to converse here, but it's not genuine. 
That's bad faith.

why do you feel the need to change my mind

have you had much success with other posters here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 12:42:46 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 12:05:18 PM

There is no such thing as a "water shortage" at the planet level. The issue we have is droughts which cause a shortage of freshwater suitable for human consumption. But the Earth has plenty of water.


The answer to "why couldn't we change it" is that water vapor in the air is an effect, not a cause. We can't change the total amount of water on the planet. We could boil a bunch of it, turning it into vapor, but it would just rain right back down on us because we can't keep it in the atmosphere. It's a cycle.

first - this has been my argument.  There's no shortage of water.

second - why couldn't we store water underground or somewhere it wouldn't evaporate as quickly such as tanks, under the shade of solar panels, trees, tarps, ect?
If we can take water to the desert for large cities where it evaporates more quickly, why can't we take it elsewhere to slow evaporation?
Cloud seeding comes to mind

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 12:46:43 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 12:28:00 PM

whats bad faith

as I previously said this is not the hill I want to die on

so if you find my questions not in good faith just dont interject anything in response to my posts

I have no problem with you disagreeing with me but you obviously have a big problem because we dont see eye to eye

so just look the other way when I post please feel free to believe what you want and I will do the same

"In bad faith" means that you're participating in a discussion, possibly even a debate as this is a contentious issue on a complex scientific topic, and your only interest is to state what you feel, over and over, and not actually engage points/evidence/arguments that are contrary to your feelings. 

It doesn't mean you have to change your beliefs. But if you enter a discussion with a belief, you should know that people who disagree will expect you to back up your belief with evidence. And that if your evidence is good, they'll engage it. And that if they present good evidence, you'll engage it. And that even if neither party changes their beliefs, we'll all learn something. 

You haven't done that. And it's not just me. utee, CD, and Gigem have all pointed out numerous times how small things can have big effects. But you just retreat to 'I don't feel that's a big enough number to do anything' despite greenhouse gas theory going back to at least 1859... Which you'd know if you've read this link (https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm), but I trust you haven't and never will. 

That's "in bad faith". 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 12:53:46 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 12:42:46 PM

first - this has been my argument.  There's no shortage of water.

second - why couldn't we store water underground or somewhere it wouldn't evaporate as quickly such as tanks, under the shade of solar panels, trees, tarps, ect?
If we can take water to the desert for large cities where it evaporates more quickly, why can't we take it elsewhere to slow evaporation?
Cloud seeding comes to mind

Your second point is most intriguing. I'm not an expert on this stuff, but I think there are two problems:

• The scale. A quick google search suggest the oceans contain 352 quintillion gallons of water. The idea that we could build water storage capability for any meaningful fraction of that is ludicrous. 
• Even if we could store that much water, I don't think it would matter. I think we'd end up lowering sea levels, but not changing water vapor levels in the air. The air's capacity to carry water vapor is IMHO the driving factor, not the total quantity of water exposed to air in the world. I.e. if we stored 10% of the earth's water, 35 quintillion gallons, I think it would just change the balance such that the amount of water that is maintained as vapor in the ear would be the same, it would just be a higher percentage of the total. 

Essentially the vapor comes from the surface. The water deep in the oceans isn't evaporating. So if you reduce total water by 10%, you still have [essentially] the same amount of surface water that can evaporate. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2023, 01:03:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 12:46:43 PM

"In bad faith" means that you're participating in a discussion, possibly even a debate as this is a contentious issue on a complex scientific topic, and your only interest is to state what you feel, over and over, and not actually engage points/evidence/arguments that are contrary to your feelings.

It doesn't mean you have to change your beliefs. But if you enter a discussion with a belief, you should know that people who disagree will expect you to back up your belief with evidence. And that if your evidence is good, they'll engage it. And that if they present good evidence, you'll engage it. And that even if neither party changes their beliefs, we'll all learn something.

You haven't done that. And it's not just me. utee, CD, and Gigem have all pointed out numerous times how small things can have big effects. But you just retreat to 'I don't feel that's a big enough number to do anything' despite greenhouse gas theory going back to at least 1859... Which you'd know if you've read this link (https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm), but I trust you haven't and never will.

That's "in bad faith".

Im sorry but you are not Gods gift of all knowledge to mankind

I have read and fully understand the co2 theory and CC and because no one has really proven 120 ppm is actually causing CC but instead of proof offer the fact that co2 has increased and so has temperature so they must correlate

its not bad faith but simply my feeling that CC is being caused by something more substantial

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 01:04:28 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 12:53:46 PM

Your second point is most intriguing. I'm not an expert on this stuff, but I think there are two problems:

• The scale. A quick google search suggest the oceans contain 352 quintillion gallons of water. The idea that we could build water storage capability for any meaningful fraction of that is ludicrous.

similar to reducing CO2 emissions for any meaningful fraction any time soon

what if we could somehow cover 20% of the oceans?
seems insurmountable, but......

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 01:23:43 PM

expectedly, this pops up..........

Textron Aviation is to supply five Beechcraft King Air twin-turboprops to Saudi Arabia for cloud-seeding operations via Fargo, North Dakota-based AvMet International.

To be used by the Middle Eastern country’s National Center for Meteorology, the five-aircraft fleet comprises a single cargo-door equipped King Air 360CHW and four King Air 260s.


AvMet and its sister companies Weather Modification International (WMI) and Fargo Jet Center will install the four King Air 260s with the necessary equipment for cloud seeding, in addition to which the King Air 360CHW will also be fitted with a research laboratory and an instrument package for studying cloud physics and aerosols.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 01:51:19 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 01:04:28 PM

what if we could somehow cover 20% of the oceans?

I don't see how that could matter, at all.  The limiting factor is temperature (and some wind currents perhaps).  Water vapor is going to seek its level pretty quickly.

The other geophysical methods being considered would be plausibly feasible and useful, though unintended consequences could arise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2023, 02:08:49 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 09:25:25 AM

I'd guess private jets are a small percentage of CO2 generation compared to commercial airlines

better to simply ban all air travel for leisure and for 90% of business

the only way for this to save the planet is for extreme changes in lifestyle

not just throwing $$$ at a problem

Someone needs to tell Hawaii, the USVI's, Puerto Rico, etc. that they are now on their own.

Unless that bridge from California to India gets built, of course.


Did Biden Say There Are Plans To Build a New Railroad Across the Indian Ocean? | Snopes.com (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-ocean-train/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 02:44:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 01:04:28 PM

similar to reducing CO2 emissions for any meaningful fraction any time soon

what if we could somehow cover 20% of the oceans?
seems insurmountable, but......

Surface area is important for evaporation rate, of course. I was thinking about this after that post... I.e. put 5 gallons of water in a tall narrow pot, vs a short wide pot. Put a 1500W heating element in each pot. The wider one will evaporate more quickly. So I can see where your mind is going with this. 

However I don't think it's the same thing with the ocean. Nobody is boiling it. The key is more how much water vapor the air can hold, IMHO less than the rate of evaporation. 

So the question would be, if you cover 20% of the oceans, would the remaining 80% surface area just evaporate more quickly to compensate? Unless the oceans are currently evaporating at the maximum possible rate, I would think that the evaporation rates would be faster in the uncovered areas. Or that if it wasn't faster, that the system wouldn't still achieve stasis based on the carrying capacity of the air, just a little more slowly...

I'm not sure that I see any way that we could actually reduce the amount of water vapor in the air over any sustained period... 

But it's an interesting line of thought nonetheless. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 02:48:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 02:44:35 PM

I'm not sure that I see any way that we could actually reduce the amount of water vapor in the air over any sustained period...

In theory, if we cooled the atmosphere, we could.  That would require dissipating a LOT of heat somewhere else (space).  We appear to be doing the reverse of that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 03:11:27 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 02:48:14 PM

In theory, if we cooled the atmosphere, we could.  That would require dissipating a LOT of heat somewhere else (space).  We appear to be doing the reverse of that.

Yep, and that's why we worry about things like positive feedback loops. 

I worry what happens if:

• Warming continues, which increases the air's ability to hold water vapor.
• More evaporation leads to more warming as water vapor is a GHG. 
• More warming leads to things like the thawing of tundra, causing a release of a lot of CO2 and methane as millenia-frozen plant material decomposes. 
• More warming leads to higher ocean temperatures, causing the ocean to release some of the sunk CO2 that it's taken out of the atmosphere of our emissions. 
• CO2 and methane release cause more warming, which increases the air's ability to hold water vapor. 
• Rinse and repeat.

We've gone from the level of CO2 that has existed in all of the interglacial warm periods of the last 800,000 years, up to a level not seen in over 4M years, and we've done it all in about 150 years, a blink in geological time. Oh, and we've spewed a lot of methane out too, to apparently higher levels than have been seen in 800,000 years. Can't leave that out. 


I don't know what's going to happen, but I'm pretty sure since the developed world is doing darn close to nothing about it, we're gonna find out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 03:18:23 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2023, 02:08:49 PM

Someone needs to tell Hawaii, the USVI's, Puerto Rico, etc. that they are now on their own.

Unless that bridge from California to India gets built, of course.


Did Biden Say There Are Plans To Build a New Railroad Across the Indian Ocean? | Snopes.com (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-ocean-train/)

of all the folks here..........
you might know the most about these things that have been around for centuries called boats

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 03:22:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 01:51:19 PM

I don't see how that could matter, at all.  The limiting factor is temperature (and some wind currents perhaps).  

we could clog up the wind currents with huge windmills that generate green electricity!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 03:23:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 02:48:14 PM

In theory, if we cooled the atmosphere, we could.  That would require dissipating a LOT of heat somewhere else (space).  We appear to be doing the reverse of that.

maybe now is the time to pop a hole in the Ozone layer
release some hot air!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 04:46:03 PM

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/359339361_10116211142901571_2199700615179110214_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=KpjHc6tLiCMAX_bauTz&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfD7qmstxyuCRu1tZToRaRSn-TGf4H_eErOcxfVP2j-lUA&oe=64B3AAC7)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2023, 09:42:15 AM

How much warming can we expect in the 21st century? | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/07/08/how-much-warming-can-we-expect-in-the-21st-century/)

This is long, but the gist of it is this, according to this individual:

We can see in the graph that if RCP4.5 is the correct emissions scenario and the effective climate sensitivity is 3.1°C, then the temperature will rise by about 1.8°C between 1986-2005 and 2079-2099. To estimate the temperature rise from today until 2100, we subtract 18% from 1.8°C, resulting in an estimated increase of about 1.5°C.
Using instead Lewis22’s effective climate sensitivity of 2.16°C with the RCP4.5 scenario, we can see from the graph that the temperature increase will be approximately 1.25°C. This corresponds to a temperature rise of 1.0°C from today until 2100.
RCP3.4 is not included in the graph, but we can assume that the temperature increase for RCP3.4 will be a few tenths of a degree lower than for RCP4.5, so perhaps 0.7-0.8°C, which also agrees quite well with what Pielke Jr found (0.9°C) after we adjusted for the climate sensitivity from Lewis22.

The article also illustrates just a bit about how complex these models are, which to me is a concern.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 08:09:31 AM

Climate: Kerry rules out US paying reparations to low-income nations (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/14/climate-kerry-rules-out-us-paying-reparations-to-low-income-nations.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 08:48:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 03:18:23 PM

of all the folks here..........
you might know the most about these things that have been around for centuries called boats

Sure. Let's make travel to Hawaii take a week, rather than hours.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2023, 09:14:24 AM

too many hours for me by plane

a supersonic boom over the pacific wouldn't be too bad

Maui was great but once is enough for me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 09:15:40 AM

I was surprised on our first trip to learn that Cincy to LAX was shorter than LAX to Kona.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2023, 09:19:29 AM

shorter in time?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 09:35:46 AM

It's about 4.5 hours Cincy to LAX and nearly 6 hours LAX to Kona.

You're fighting some headwinds usually, so it's shorter on the return, usually.

Hawaii is OUT THERE.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2023, 10:13:41 AM

yup, after my 2nd trip with the daughters, I told them there were nice beaches much closer

Went to St. Pete's beach the next time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 10:20:33 AM

Hawaii doesn't have fabulous beaches, in my experience, no doubt I have missed some.  Hapuna Beach makes the odd "best beaches" lists, but in my view, it is not special, and there is a lot of rockiness offshore that can ding your legs pretty badly.  There are interesting beaches, black and green sand, with turtles etc.  When we go, we might spend a week there and never go to a beach, or go once.  There are other things more of interest to us.

We usually go to the Big Island, which is quite different from the others.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2023, 10:25:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 09:35:46 AM

It's about 4.5 hours Cincy to LAX and nearly 6 hours LAX to Kona.

You're fighting some headwinds usually, so it's shorter on the return, usually.

Hawaii is OUT THERE. 

Kona Bud & the Bonsai Pipeline better be prettygood to fly that long. The U.S. Pacific Fleet making it to Australia and in strength was quite remarkable

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 10:27:30 AM

My wife is crazy about Hawaii, she wants to go every other year, at least.  It's surprising to me, a bit.  We're headed there again in December.  A few years back she had a decade birthday and I paid for first class seats which helped, some.  I somehow got a pretty decent deal on them.

We generally do comfort plus and hope for the bump.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2023, 10:30:03 AM

daughters are addicted to beaches

don't blame them
growing up in Iowa

Kaanapali Beach was where we stayed on Maui
Also visited some other beaches

Stayed on Waikiki Beach in Honolulu

nice enough beaches
Waikiki was crowded

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2023, 11:29:41 AM

Been to Hawaii once.  Once was enough, better place to go for sun and beaches as far as I am concerned when you add in the travel time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 12:29:29 PM

Most folks go to Oahu and think they've pretty much done Hawaii, while I would disagree, but it is a long way away.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 01:01:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 10:20:33 AM

Hawaii doesn't have fabulous beaches, in my experience, no doubt I have missed some.  Hapuna Beach makes the odd "best beaches" lists, but in my view, it is not special, and there is a lot of rockiness offshore that can ding your legs pretty badly.  There are interesting beaches, black and green sand, with turtles etc.  When we go, we might spend a week there and never go to a beach, or go once.  There are other things more of interest to us.

We usually go to the Big Island, which is quite different from the others.

For sure. North side of Oahu is stellar. Hanalei Bay is absolutely fantastic (Kauai), as is Poipu Beach on the South side of Kauai. Kauai has the best beaches of all the islands, IMO.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 01:09:38 PM

I did visited the north coast of Oahu, they were trying to have a surfing tournament but couldn't because there were no waves.  The beaches I saw there were nothing notable, to me.  I'm sure they have nice beaches somewhere depending on what nice means.  I'm not much of a beach person.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2023, 01:41:27 PM

I was driving up towards Jacksonville from Orlando on my recent trip and got onto A1A, put the windows down, and drove 35 mph for about 2 hours.
It was great.  Salty air.  Seabreeze.  Stopped around Ormond Beach and went for a dip.  
When I go to the beach, I get in the water.  
But that drive and dip was good for my alleged soul.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 01:45:27 PM

Not a beach guy at all, but I do go in the water. We can't sit at a beach all day. An hour is about the max. 30 minutes even better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 01:49:59 PM

We usually just walk on a beach, might get ankles wet.  I dragged a foot across some jagged lava under water and convinced me to be wary of Hawaii beaches and waters.

We both like Hilton Head in the off season, we just walk and chat.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 01:54:08 PM

Wakiki beach, not really my idea of a great beach, but would be for some.

(https://i.imgur.com/bfFFOhg.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 01:55:22 PM

This beach is close to where we usually stay on the Big I:

(https://i.imgur.com/3vYDa95.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 14, 2023, 02:03:31 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 01:54:08 PM

Wakiki beach, not really my idea of a great beach, but would be for some.

(https://i.imgur.com/bfFFOhg.jpg)

Yeah, narrow and kind of steep is dumb.  South Beach in Miami is like that.
.
every sandy beach > any beach with rocks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 02:24:55 PM

We like Lido Beach and Clearwater Beach.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2023, 02:28:12 PM

I'm a fan of the beaches-- and the water-- around Playa del Carmen.

(https://i.imgur.com/XdKnNKa.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/qQt1QGb.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/3aUykMV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 02:46:17 PM

Yeah, those look very nice indeed.  These are nice to see, but the "sand" is more fine gravel of course.



(https://i.imgur.com/FyMeVqQ.jpg)(https://i.imgur.com/vfAGP4Y.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 02:51:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 02:46:17 PM

Yeah, those look very nice indeed.  These are nice to see, but the "sand" is more fine gravel of course.



(https://i.imgur.com/vfAGP4Y.jpg)

That looks like Hana (Maui) to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 02:53:35 PM

Punaluu Black Sand Beach Hawaii | Go Hawaii (https://www.gohawaii.com/islands/hawaii-big-island/regions/kau/punaluu-black-sand-beach)

Have you ever seen a beach with black sand? Because of constant volcanic activity, you'll find white sands and black sands on the island of Hawaiʻi. Located on the southeastern Kaʻū coast, Punaluʻu Black Sand Beach is one of the most famous black sand beaches in Hawaiʻi.

Located between the towns of Pāhala and Nāʻālehu in Kaʻū, Punaluʻu Black Sand Beach's jet black shores are an unforgettable sight. Coconut palms fringe the upper edge of sand and you may also discover large honu, (Hawaiian Green Sea Turtles), basking on the beach. Although it may be tempting, do not touch these protected turtles and do not remove any black sand from the beach.

Although swimming isn't ideal, there is a picnic area and restroom facilities so you can have lunch while you experience the unique feeling of black sand between your toes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2023, 03:13:55 PM

Why can't you remove black sand is it cursed by the Polynesians?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 03:14:41 PM

East side of Maui is mostly black sand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2023, 03:16:42 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2023, 03:13:55 PM

Why can't you remove black sand is it cursed by the Polynesians?

Why would you want to remove it?  It's a tourist attraction.  For me, see it once is more than enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2023, 03:26:44 PM

Visited the beach at Half-Moon Caye in the Bahamas. It was one of the best beaches I have been.  Super fine sand and glass like water. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2023, 09:46:38 AM

TS Don - A nothing burger for the US.

But it is storm #5 (4th named storm) for the year. The rare January storm never got a name.

(https://i.imgur.com/HYIFuQC.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2023, 10:34:21 AM

Today feels like July outside.

Atlanta, GA Weather Forecast and Conditions - The Weather Channel | Weather.com (https://weather.com/weather/today/l/f571da531af5fa018983700b738adfdb40dc04f959eed1269b4afffef810e180)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on July 15, 2023, 02:24:19 PM

my brother smuggled home some black sand from the Big island (he was 5).     I swear he permanently had sand in his sheets the rest of his childhood.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2023, 02:32:12 PM

Scientists warned about climate change in 1965. Nothing was done. (knowablemagazine.org) (https://knowablemagazine.org/article/food-environment/2023/scientists-warned-climate-change-1965-podcast)


Everybody talks about it, nobody does anything about it, ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 15, 2023, 02:57:09 PM

We've got 7 straight days of 115+

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2023, 09:08:11 AM

Fun 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2023, 09:21:30 AM

My wife claims to like hot weather.  I usually tolerate it OK, but to say I like it would be wrong.  Forecast here is for 90°F which is basically average, later this week I'm seeing 96°F, which is hot for here.  Dew point at the moment is 72°F, usually anything about 70°F starts to be clingy bad.

I keep seeing "news" items that all this is due to climate change, which for the most part is simply wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 16, 2023, 09:23:40 AM

I like hot weather.  Upper 90s is great. 

115 for weeks at a time would be a bit much for me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2023, 09:58:22 AM

Been 93-96 here for a few weeks now. It's not a dry heat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2023, 09:59:28 AM

Been on vacation in Palm Springs since Thursday. 119 high yesterday. But there's a pool at the Airbnb so it's all good. Ready to go home though. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2023, 08:55:32 PM

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/07/14/sulfur-selenium-solid-state-battery-from-nasa-breaks-energy-storage-boundaries/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2023/07/14/sulfur-selenium-solid-state-battery-from-nasa-breaks-energy-storage-boundaries/)

Sulfur Selenium Solid-State Battery From NASA Breaks Energy Storage Boundaries

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2023, 09:44:29 PM

I like hot weather better then cold weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2023, 09:57:23 PM

me too - I'm happy between 40 and 90

it's been high 70's low 80's here for a week

more of that forecast through Saturday

overnight low expected at 55 - windows are open

been good for golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2023, 07:27:05 AM

Wind speed of course makes a huge difference, as well as shade (or sun).  I know they have these "feels like" Temps, but I think they are wrong.  I think 38°F in drizzle with wind can be painful versus 17°F and no wind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 09:15:44 AM

Interesting.

White House silent after John Kerry laments Ukraine war's carbon emissions | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-silent-john-kerry-laments-ukraine-wars-carbon-emissions)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 17, 2023, 09:55:41 AM

would it be better for the environment if we just nuked the Kremlin?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 17, 2023, 10:44:07 AM

You guys have no idea of how hot it really is until you work outside in it all day for several days at a time.  Been a scorcher.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 17, 2023, 10:59:55 AM

Quote from: Gigem on July 17, 2023, 10:44:07 AM

You guys have no idea of how hot it really is until you work outside in it all day for several days at a time.  Been a scorcher. 

it was when I was a summer helper in construction as a teen during summer that I made my mind up to go to college so I wouldnt have to earn a living outside with this Texas heat

It sure lit a fire under my butt

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2023, 11:21:43 AM

Quote from: Gigem on July 17, 2023, 10:44:07 AM

You guys have no idea of how hot it really is until you work outside in it all day for several days at a time.  Been a scorcher. 

As a kid I worked summers mowing lawns and doing other general outdoor maintenance/landscaping stuff.  Like lh320, that's exactly what made me decide I'd have inside jobs if I planned on staying in Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 17, 2023, 11:54:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 17, 2023, 07:27:05 AM

Wind speed of course makes a huge difference, as well as shade (or sun).  I know they have these "feels like" Temps, but I think they are wrong.  I think 38°F in drizzle with wind can be painful versus 17°F and no wind.

Deer Hunted in both of those conditions and yes. Also attended Browns games when the same - and yes again. Rather have 17 and sun reflecting off the snow than that incinerator in Arizona 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2023, 11:54:40 AM

I was thinking about the guys in Iraq in summer, toting 90 pounds of gear including the "flak" and Kevlar, and weapon, and ammo, and water, and ...

I really don't see how it is possible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 17, 2023, 11:58:09 AM

Working outside in the Iowa summer heat was enough for me. 

Yourself Texans are crazy 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2023, 12:00:07 PM

It is VERY hazy here today, I'm guessing some is smoke.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 03:58:54 PM

Probably gonna get a little windy on the Big Island.

(https://i.imgur.com/JKulP4a.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 04:00:40 PM

@OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) 


You've lived in both Florida and Arizona for a number of years, past and present.

What's worse?

A dry 115, or 93 with 80% humidity?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2023, 04:07:21 PM

Well to compare temps, I put it at a 12-13 degree difference in equal "feeling."  That's a little more than the heat index generally has it.
Ex:  100 in Phx feels like 88 in Gainesville.  Heat index in FL due to humidity tends to add up to 10 degrees, not usually more than that.
The 115 AZ heat is worse for 3 reasons, though:
a - it stays hot all night....it was 98 at 11pm here the other night.  There is no relief.
b - FL has nearly daily storms that are accompanied by cool breezes and cold rain.  A reprieve.  Daily.
c - The 115+ day after day with no clouds just makes everything hot as hell - every door handle, your car, the ground.  Everything stays burning lava hot.
.
Idk, here's a morbid take on it:  people voluntarily enter saunas.  They have to be forced into ovens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2023, 04:15:31 PM

The crazy thing is that people do all the same jobs here as everywhere else.
There are roofers here.  
Guys are out repaving roads here.
.
I got in my car the other day and it said 127.  People are painting things, outdoor things.  What's the point?  
They're landscaping and lawn-mowing and all the rest.
.
You can't enjoy the outdoors.  At all.  You don't want to grill out.  Don't want to hike.  You have to do it at 6am and even then it's already hot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 17, 2023, 04:17:34 PM

similar to below zero temps here in the winter

run from the house to the car, run form the car to the office

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 17, 2023, 04:18:12 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 04:00:40 PM

@OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58)


You've lived in both Florida and Arizona for a number of years, past and present.

What's worse?

A dry 115, or 93 with 80% humidity?

I'm not moving to either place
not fit for older humans like me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2023, 04:19:30 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 17, 2023, 04:18:12 PM

I'm not moving to either place
not fit for older humans like me

But old people move to these 2 places the most!
Hell, there's a suburb here that's almost exclusively old people (Sun City)!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 17, 2023, 04:23:26 PM

the majority isn't always the most intelligent 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 04:24:00 PM

All the suburbs here are for old people.

Been over 3 weeks since we've had any meaningful rain, so no cooldowns lately.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2023, 04:37:52 PM

No 5-20 minute deluge every day?  Weird.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 17, 2023, 04:39:10 PM

climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 05:50:57 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2023, 04:37:52 PM

No 5-20 minute deluge every day?  Weird.

It's super scattered. I wish some would fall on my house.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on July 18, 2023, 07:05:15 AM

Seven inches of rain in 45 minutes in Eastern PA (Makefield township) over the weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 07:10:29 AM

hoping for rain this morning

maybe not 7 in 45, but too much would be better than too little right now

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 07:28:17 AM

Speaker Kevin McCarthy was asked about climate change and forest fires, he was ready with a response: Plant a trillion trees.

The idea — simple yet massively ambitious — revealed recent Republican thinking on how to address climate change. The party is no longer denying that global warming exists, yet is searching for a response to sweltering summers, weather disasters and rising sea levels that doesn’t involve abandoning their enthusiastic support for American-produced energy from burning oil, coal and gas.

“We need to manage our forests better so our environment can be stronger,” McCarthy said, adding, “Let’s replace Russian natural gas with American natural gas and let’s not only have a cleaner world, let’s have a safer world.”

The Biden administration has also boosted exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe after Russia, one of the continent’s largest suppliers of energy, invaded Ukraine. The Democratic president has also said that coal, oil and gas will be part of America’s energy supply for years to come.

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that heat-trapping gases released from the combustion of fossil fuels are pushing up global temperatures, upending weather patterns around the globe and endangering animal species. But the solution long touted by Democrats and environmental advocates — government action to force emissions reductions — remains a non-starter with most Republicans.

Enter the idea of planting a trillion trees. A 2019 study suggested that planting trees to suck up heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could be one of the most effective ways to fight climate change. Major conservation groups, and former President Donald Trump, who downplayed humanity’s role in climate change, embraced the idea.

But the tree-planting push has drawn intense pushback from environmental scientists who call it a distraction from cutting emissions from fossil fuels. The authors of the original study have also clarified that planting trees does not eliminate “the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

Planting one trillion trees would also require a massive amount of space — roughly the size of the continental United States. And more trees could even increase the risk of wildfires by serving as fuel in a warming world.

“There is a lot of value to planting trees, but it is not a panacea,” said Mark Ashton, a professor of forest ecology at Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.

The GOP’s new approach on climate was apparent in 2021. McCarthy and other GOP lawmakers, led by Arkansas Rep. Bruce Westerman, backed a bill to incentivize growing timber forests in the U.S. as part of a worldwide effort to plant 1 trillion trees. Westerman said he expects a similar proposal to advance this year.

For Republicans, the bill checks the right boxes. It is friendly to the timber industry and touts a climate solution — sequestering a massive amount of carbon from manmade emissions — that would also partially alleviate the need to wean the country off fossil fuels.

Now that he has a slim House majority, McCarthy has also pushed for expanded energy production. He made the “ Lower Energy Costs Act” the top legislative priority of the new GOP majority, as signified by its bill number — H.R. 1. The proposal, which passed the House on a mostly party-line vote in March, would spur American energy production, especially oil, gas and coal.

Democrats like President Joe Biden rejected the bill as a “thinly veiled license to pollute,” but Republicans argued it would reduce carbon emissions because U.S.-produced fossil fuels are usually cleaner than those produced overseas.

“What we’ve been able to demonstrate to the Republican conference is that the strategies that actually work are those that are actually increasing U.S. resources,” said Louisiana Rep. Garret Graves, one of McCarthy’s top lieutenants on energy and environmental issues. “It lowers energy prices, it lowers emissions, and it makes us more energy independent.”

The energy legislation also would increase production of critical minerals such as lithium that are used in batteries for electric vehicles, computers and cellphones — a priority Biden shares. House Republicans and many Democrats have also advanced proposals to speed permitting for energy projects of all types, including those for “clean energy” such as wind, solar and geothermal power.

“I keep reminding Republicans that H.R. 1 made energy affordable, reliable, and clean,” said Utah Rep. John Curtis, who has become a leading Republican voice on environmental issues. “We’re very quick to point out that it made it affordable and reliable. Sometimes we forget to remind people: yes, and clean. That’s an important part.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 07:30:17 AM

I like trees, but this "plan" to me looks impractical.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 07:45:21 AM

agreed

but, if we got started and only accomplished the practical portion, it wouldn't hurt

perhaps along with an effort to save a billion trees from being destroyed.......

(another toilet paper shortage in the name of saving the planet)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 08:51:03 AM

Paper is made from tree farms, almost without exception.  And growing trees and cutting them down and growing more is carbon neutral (more or less).  If the fiber goes into paper towels or other trash that goes to landfill, it's maybe carbon negative.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 18, 2023, 02:46:19 PM

A 5 year-old came up with this, right?
"I know, let's plant a bajillion trees!"
.
I love how the republicans' reluctantly acknowledging they were wrong is just glossed over.  FFS

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2023, 02:49:05 PM

Lots of trees are being cut down in these parts. Cuz people are moving here in big numbers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 02:50:45 PM

yup, no one seems to care about that
I'd guess it's a contributor 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 18, 2023, 03:01:31 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 07:28:17 AM

Speaker Kevin McCarthy was asked about climate change and forest fires, he was ready with a response: Plant a trillion trees.

The idea — simple yet massively ambitious — revealed recent Republican thinking on how to address climate change. The party is no longer denying that global warming exists, yet is searching for a response to sweltering summers, weather disasters and rising sea levels that doesn’t involve abandoning their enthusiastic support for American-produced energy from burning oil, coal and gas.

Are we back to Global Warming again and not just Climate change? I need a program to keep up with the looming disaster that is always predicted to be 10 years away. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 03:03:19 PM

well, it's hot this week in Phoenix and Texas and parts of Europe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 18, 2023, 03:24:32 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 03:03:19 PM

well, it's hot this week in Phoenix and Texas and parts of Europe

Yeah I don't know about the globe but my yard is sure warming right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2023, 03:35:39 PM

Mine too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 03:51:39 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 18, 2023, 03:01:31 PM

Are we back to Global Warming again and not just Climate change? I need a program to keep up with the looming disaster that is always predicted to be 10 years away.

I think warming is part of climate change, which is a broader term.  I'm not too worried about any name change.  And the actual IPCC Report doesn't forecast any dramatic disaster a decade out, Orlando won't be a port city, Manhattan won't be under ten feet of water, the usual.  It gets hot in July in the nothern hemisphere, for all we know it may be unusually cold in Antarctica.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 03:52:57 PM

This is from 2021 ...

Antarctica's last 6 months were the coldest on record | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/09/weather/weather-record-cold-antarctica-climate-change/index.html#:~:text=In a year of extreme,Data Center (NSIDC) said.)

In a year of extreme heat, Antarctica’s last six months were the coldest on record.
“For the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a record for those months,” the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said.
The last six months is also the darkest period at the South Pole, which is where the name polar darkness (also [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]called polar night) (https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/nighttime-begins-the-south-pole-no-sunrise-the-next-six-months)[/url] comes from. Here, the sun sets for the last time around the spring equinox, and does not rise again until near the autumn equinox six months later.[/font][/size][/color]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 03:54:50 PM

Why is it so damn cold right now? A weather researcher explains (theconversation.com) (https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-damn-cold-right-now-a-weather-researcher-explains-208182)

From June of this year ...

If you woke up this morning and thought “Gosh, it’s a bit brisk!”, you’re not alone.
Temperatures plummeted across southeast Australia this week, with Weatherzone reporting (https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/coldest-morning-in-5-years-for-parts-of-nsw-qld-act/1342232) Canberra’s low of -7.2ºC was “its lowest temperature since 2018 and the lowest for June since 1986.”
Sydney experienced its coldest June morning (https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/coldest-morning-in-5-years-for-parts-of-nsw-qld-act/1342232) today since 2010, with a temperature of 5.2ºC. In Victoria, temperatures of -7.2ºC were recorded (https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/coldest-morning-in-5-years-for-parts-of-nsw-qld-act/1342232).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 18, 2023, 04:41:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 03:51:39 PM

I think warming is part of climate change, which is a broader term.  I'm not too worried about any name change.  And the actual IPCC Report doesn't forecast any dramatic disaster a decade out, Orlando won't be a port city, Manhattan won't be under ten feet of water, the usual.  It gets hot in July in the nothern hemisphere, for all we know it may be unusually cold in Antarctica.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-early-winter-record-low-june-2023

Antarctic sea ice reaches an early winter record low in June 2023

After reaching a record-low summer minimum earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice continues to break records. In the midst of its winter growth phase, it has reached a record-low extent, far below the previous record, for this time of year.

Data archived by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) record Antarctic sea ice extent at 4.5 million square miles (11.7 million square kilometers) as of June 27, 2023. That’s nearly a million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) below the 1981–2010 average, and approaching a half a million square miles (1.2 million square kilometers) below the previous lowest extent for the day, observed in 2022.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 05:18:07 PM

There is no ‘new normal’: absent drastic action, the climate will only get worse | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4102275-there-is-no-new-normal-absent-drastic-action-the-climate-will-only-get-worse/)

But science is also clear on what we have to do to find a new normal: stop burning coal, oil and natural gas. When we stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere, global temperatures will stabilize and we will have weather that we can get used to. Every new wind turbine or solar farm or electric vehicle makes that possibility more likely. But our current pace of change means that we have decades of work ahead of us to reach a true new normal. 

I obviously disdain such opinion pieces and think they just shouldn't see light of day, ever, they are just plain stupid and add nothing, convince no one, outline no practicable anything.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 05:30:24 PM

The 2015 major El Nino was predicted years in advance using a lunar cycle | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/07/18/the-2015-major-el-nino-was-predicted-years-in-advance-using-a-lunar-cycle/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 18, 2023, 05:41:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 18, 2023, 05:30:24 PM

The 2015 major El Nino was predicted years in advance using a lunar cycle | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/07/18/the-2015-major-el-nino-was-predicted-years-in-advance-using-a-lunar-cycle/)

That El Nino ended a 5-year drought and filled up our lakes from about 27% full to 100% full in a matter of a few months.

I was hoping it was predicting another super strong El Nino for 2023 but it looks like we have to wait until 2034.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 18, 2023, 06:06:39 PM

Plant a tree

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 18, 2023, 06:08:17 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/ThSHGOs.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 18, 2023, 06:09:26 PM

They should shut and plant trees to

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 06:23:07 PM

What Is Arbor Day?
The origins of Arbor Day date back to the early 1870s in Nebraska City, . A journalist by the name of Julius Sterling Morton moved to the state with his wife, Caroline, in 1854, a little more than 10 years before Nebraska gained its statehood in 1867. The couple purchased 160 acres in Nebraska City and planted a wide variety of trees and shrubs in what was a primarily a flat stretch of desolate plain.

Morton also became the editor of the state’s first newspaper, Nebraska City News, which was a perfect platform for Morton to spread his knowledge of trees… and to stress their ecological importance to Nebraska. His message of tree life resonated with his readers, many of whom recognized the lack of forestation in their community. Morton also became involved with the Nebraska Board of Agriculture.

On January 7, 1872, Morton proposed a day that would encourage all Nebraskans to plant trees in their community. The agriculture board agreed, and after some back-and-forth about the title—the event was originally going to be called “Sylvan Day” in reference to forest trees—Morton convinced everyone that the day should reflect the appreciation of all trees, and “Arbor Day” was born.


The First Arbor Day
With the seeds of interest already planted in the minds of devoted Nebraska City News readers, the first ever Arbor Day was held on April 10, 1872 and was a wild success. Morton led the charge in the planting of approximately 1 million trees. Enthusiasm and engagement was aided by the prizes awarded to those who planted trees correctly.

The tradition quickly began to spread. In 1882, schools across the country started to participate, and more than a decade after its introduction, Arbor Day became an official state holiday in Nebraska in 1885. April 22 was initially chosen because of its ideal weather for planting trees and in recognition of Morton’s birthday.

Within 20 years, Arbor Day had reached a large swath of the nation and was celebrated in every state except for Delaware. The holiday spread even further with the help of fellow agriculturalist Birdsey Northrop. In 1883, Northrop introduced the concept of Arbor Day to Japan, and continued to influence the creation of Arbor Days across Europe, Canada and Australia.

Theodore Roosevelt and Arbor Day
On April 15, 1907, President Theodore Roosevelt, a supporter of the Conservation Movement, issued an "Arbor Day Proclamation to the School Children of the United States,” telling them:

“It is well that you should celebrate your Arbor Day thoughtfully, for within your lifetimes the Nation’s need of trees will become serious. We of an older generation can get along with what we have, though with growing hardship; but in your full manhood and womanhood you will want what nature once so bountifully supplied and man so thoughtlessly destroyed.”

Arbor Day Becomes A National Holiday
It wasn’t until 1970, however, that Arbor Day became recognized nationwide thanks to the efforts of President Richard Nixon. This move was in line with other environmentally-friendly actions taken by Nixon in the 1970s, including the passing of the Clean Air Act, the Endangered Species Act, the Clean Water Act and the National Environmental Protection Act, along with the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Although some states celebrate Arbor Day at different times of year to ensure that the trees are in the best environment to thrive, the national observance falls on the last Friday in April. And although Julius Morton died in 1902, well before the holiday was given a formal day of observance across the country, he is still commemorated in Washington, D.C. in a statue dedicated to the “Father of Arbor Day” in the National Hall of Fame.

How Do You Celebrate Arbor Day?
Arbor Day is celebrated on the last Friday in April in the United States. It is marked by the planting of trees and emphasizes caring for them as a way to sustainably protect our planet’s natural resources. People often dedicate trees to loved ones. Morton’s words about Arbor Day resonate strongly today, as climate change becomes a growing threat: “Other holidays repose upon the past; Arbor Day proposes for the future.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 10:11:59 AM

I'm not sure that this massive failure was discussed here. Maybe it was.


Hail Storm Destroys Solar Farm in Nebraska - IER (instituteforenergyresearch.org) (https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/solar/hail-storm-destroys-solar-farm-in-nebraska/#:~:text=The solar panels at a 5.2 megawatt solar,the size of the hailstones was exceptionally large.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 10:13:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 10:05:59 AM

The won't fail miserably, I suspect.  The various power companies will do "stuff" that makes sense to them.  Some of it will fail miserably I suspect, in time.  Some areas COULD get into a situation where brownouts become more common.  Then folks will react accordingly.

But the problems will be pretty easy to foresee and will happen on a smaller scale and others will avoid them.

See above.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 10:33:29 AM

hail storms of that nature destroy many things, not just green energy sources

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 10:37:14 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 10:33:29 AM

hail storms of that nature destroy many things, not just green energy sources

Of course.

My main takeaway from the article was what to do with the hazardous waste.

Kinda like the argument of spent nuke waste as a reason to not go nuclear for power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 10:39:46 AM

We're increasingly starting to see one of the "problems" of solar here in California. The duck curve:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56880

(https://i.imgur.com/hdTLq9A.png)

It's what happens when solar energy generates the bulk of its power in the middle of the day, but peak energy demand is later in the day when solar energy generation is tailing off.

Quote

The duck curve presents two challenges related to increasing solar energy adoption. The first challenge is grid stress. The extreme swing in demand for electricity from conventional power plants from midday to late evenings, when energy demand is still high but solar generation has dropped off, means that conventional power plants (such as natural gas-fired plants) must quickly ramp up electricity production to meet consumer demand. That rapid ramp up makes it more difficult for grid operators to match grid supply (the power they are generating) with grid demand in real time. In addition, if more solar power (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65023.pdf) is produced than the grid can use, operators might have to curtail solar power to prevent overgeneration.

The other challenge is economic. The dynamics of the duck curve can challenge the traditional economics of dispatchable power plants because the factors contributing to the curve reduce the amount of time a conventional power plant operates, which results in reduced energy revenues. If the reduced revenues make the plants uneconomical to maintain, the plants may retire without a dispatchable replacement. Less dispatchable electricity makes it harder for grid managers to balance electricity supply and demand in a system with wide swings in net demand.

I used quotes around "problem" for a reason, because there IS a solution. The solution, of course, is energy storage, but batteries are expensive, environmentally "dirty" in their own right, and the scale of batteries required is massive (other large-scale energy storage ideas are floated, such as gravitational storage, but little to none actually in use), and so storage is not being deployed anywhere NEAR as fast as solar generation.

But it highlights that the technological area where we need to be spending time, if we want to make wind & solar a REAL solution, is in energy storage. Generation is the easy part. Generation when and where it's needed is harder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 10:46:38 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 10:37:14 AM

Of course.

My main takeaway from the article was what to do with the hazardous waste.

Kinda like the argument of spent nuke waste as a reason to not go nuclear for power.

Recycling solar panels is certainly expensive but the article makes it sound impossible, which it isn't.

As "down" as I am on the potential for truly revolutionary change in battery technology, I am far more positive in society's collective ability, and desire, eventually to be able to recycle solar panels at very close to 100%, and over time the costs will come down as technology improves and economies of scale kick in.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 10:49:06 AM

Quote from: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 10:46:38 AM

Recycling solar panels is certainly expensive but the article makes it sound impossible, which it isn't.

As "down" as I am on the potential for truly revolutionary change in battery technology, I am far more positive in society's collective ability, and desire, eventually to be able to recycle solar panels at very close to 100%, and over time the costs will come down as technology improves and economies of scale kick in.

It'd be nice, and IMHO would produce an even bigger impact, if we could also figure out how to economically recycle the batteries. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 10:58:13 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 10:39:46 AM

We're increasingly starting to see one of the "problems" of solar here in California. The duck curve:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56880

But it highlights that the technological area where we need to be spending time, if we want to make wind & solar a REAL solution, is in energy storage. Generation is the easy part. Generation when and where it's needed is harder.

yes, the grid itself needs to be upgraded and get smarter to handle the different sources and management
obviously this will take time & money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 11:01:01 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 10:49:06 AM

It'd be nice, and IMHO would produce an even bigger impact, if we could also figure out how to economically recycle the batteries.

Agree 100%.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 11:02:40 AM

Quote from: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 11:01:01 AM

Agree 100%.

Same.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 11:07:18 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 10:58:13 AM

yes, the grid itself needs to be upgraded and get smarter to handle the different sources and management
obviously this will take time & money

The grid isn't the problem, and making it "smarter" whatever that means isn't a solution.

The fact that the time solar energy is being produced at the highest rate, and the time at which electricity is in highest demand, don't match, that's the problem.

Storing that electricity so it's available at a different part of the day is hard.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 11:11:04 AM

seems odd that your peak usage would be later after business hours

here we have discounted rates for usage outside peak hours

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 11:11:21 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 11:07:18 AM

The grid isn't the problem, and making it "smarter" whatever that means isn't a solution.

The fact that the time solar energy is being produced at the highest rate, and the time at which electricity is in highest demand, don't match, that's the problem.

Storing that electricity so it's available at a different part of the day is hard.

and $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 11:14:10 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 11:11:04 AM

seems odd that your peak usage would be later after business hours

here we have discounted rates for usage outside peak hours

Lots of people set their AC to kick up a quitting time. After an hour commute (5 miles in LA) both ways, the EV needs charging. Then you fire up the electric stove, oven or grill so you can cook. While doing that, you throw clothes in the electric dryer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 11:20:47 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 11:14:10 AM

Lots of people set their AC to kick up a quitting time. After an hour commute (5 miles in LA) both ways, the EV needs charging. Then you fire up the electric stove, oven or grill so you can cook. While doing that, you throw clothes in the electric dryer.

Yep. Although anyone with a brain will set their EV to charge later in their evening after peak. Especially if they only spent an hour traveling 5 miles each way and don't need to charge THAT much :57:

But at that time of the day, hordes of people go from where they are centralized in offices and their electricity demand is on a per-person basis lower, to their homes, where everyone turns on their lights, their AC, their televisions, etc. 

And in the summer here, you've still got a few hours of daylight (and heat) before it gets cool enough to knock off the AC and open the windows. Today I probably won't be able to do that until sometime between 7 and 8 PM:


(https://i.imgur.com/tzRFMWV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 11:24:29 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 11:20:47 AM

Yep. Although anyone with a brain will set their EV to charge later in their evening after peak. Especially if they only spent an hour traveling 5 miles each way and don't need to charge THAT much :57:

But at that time of the day, hordes of people go from where they are centralized in offices and their electricity demand is on a per-person basis lower, to their homes, where everyone turns on their lights, their AC, their televisions, etc.

And in the summer here, you've still got a few hours of daylight (and heat) before it gets cool enough to knock off the AC and open the windows. Today I probably won't be able to do that until sometime between 7 and 8 PM:


(https://i.imgur.com/tzRFMWV.png)

TWO hours. ;)

The Tesla I rented needed a full charge after 4 days of fairly light driving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 11:31:04 AM

88 degrees?!?

Geez, I haven't had to deal with heat like that for a week and won't until Sunday

not moving to Cali

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 11:35:25 AM

AC almost never goes off here, except for parts of December, January and February.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 11:38:08 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 11:31:04 AM

88 degrees?!?

Geez, I haven't had to deal with heat like that for a week and won't until Sunday

not moving to Cali

88 with basically zero humidity. It's MUCH more pleasant than 88 in the Midwest. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 12:07:20 PM

Just back from a nice walk, it's a bit warm in the sun, OK in the shade, 90°F, still some haze around, I guess from fires.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 12:46:40 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 11:38:08 AM

88 with basically zero humidity. It's MUCH more pleasant than 88 in the Midwest.

your pic stated 77%
was that early morning fog?
does it drop to 7% by mid day?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 12:48:19 PM

it's 74 here with 87%, but there is a thunderstorm approaching

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 01:09:01 PM

Kerry leaves China without a climate agreement | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4105589-kerry-leaves-china-without-a-climate-agreement/)

Talk is cheap anyway, flying all over isn't ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 01:12:43 PM

gee, if he could have just secured that agreement!

damn!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2023, 01:29:56 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 01:09:01 PM

Kerry leaves China without a climate agreement | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4105589-kerry-leaves-china-without-a-climate-agreement/)

Talk is cheap anyway, flying all over isn't ...

He's FOS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 01:41:07 PM

He has a sinecure, in effect, zero power or influence, he gets to posture and pretend to be important and attend all the right dinners and parties.  No doubt people speak to him as if he's important, and probably many snicker later about how pompous he is.

China already signed the Paris Accord, to the extent that means squat, and they want to push emissions higher until 2030 when they can then pretend to cut from a lofty level, and they might cut some a bit for a while.  They can keep running a bunch of old coal plants and then shutter them in 2030 and claim to be doing stuff.  Yay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 01:52:14 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 12:46:40 PM

your pic stated 77%
was that early morning fog?
does it drop to 7% by mid day?

https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/7c2abd9683d5797a3afea3c738b3b4a4a5e9becf5877001d405d16a93220922d

Showing right now as 83 with 48% humidity. The hottest part of the day (3 PM) it shows 87 with 40% humidity. 

The morning we're close enough to the ocean that we can get a little bit of a marine layer. But it burns off pretty quickly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 19, 2023, 02:11:25 PM

currently 97 in Houston

supposed to hit 102

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 02:43:22 PM

so, the heatwave is over

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 02:54:43 PM

Currently 99 tracking to a high of 104 in sunny Round Rock, Texas.  34% humidity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 03:07:52 PM

92 F and 54% I am at the pool 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 03:22:17 PM

don't splash the laptop

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 19, 2023, 03:46:50 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 02:54:43 PM

Currently 99 tracking to a high of 104 in sunny Round Rock, Texas.  34% humidity.

Galveston will top out at 90

living by the Gulf has some benefit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 03:51:27 PM

Phx broke the record of consecutive days over 110!!!!
19 days in a row!  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 03:55:12 PM

so, how old was the record and how many days didya beat it by?

Still running over 100?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:08:24 PM

Phoenix on Tuesday broke a heat record that stood in the city for nearly five decades. Shortly before noon local time, temperatures hit 110 degrees Fahrenheit, marking the 19th consecutive day at or above that mark — the most ever recorded in the city and an unenviable new milestone in the low desert.

The previous record was set in 1989 and was broken by one day obviously (so far).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:16:49 PM

Speaking of Phoenix, we've often talked about the downsides of building a metropolis in the middle of a parched desert. 

But I didn't realize that 74% of Arizona's water goes to agriculture.

https://sustainability-innovation.asu.edu/food/news/archive/where-the-water-goes-water-in-arizonan-agriculture/

Why are we trying to grow crops in the desert? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:17:48 PM

it's over 110 today there and forecast to be 118 tomorrow
10 day forecast shows highs over 110 all ten days

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:18:22 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:16:49 PM

Speaking of Phoenix, we've often talked about the downsides of building a metropolis in the middle of a parched desert.

But I didn't realize that 74% of Arizona's water goes to agriculture.

https://sustainability-innovation.asu.edu/food/news/archive/where-the-water-goes-water-in-arizonan-agriculture/

Why are we trying to grow crops in the desert?

cause the folks that moved there get hungry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:20:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:16:49 PM

Why are we trying to grow crops in the desert?

The land is usually fairly fertile, aside from water, and folks who bought the land realized they could make the land much more valuable by irrigating it.  I recall they grow a lot of cotton out there which has fairly high water demands.

The Central Valley in California is somewhat similar, very fertile, very dry, and enormously productive with irrigation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:24:25 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:16:49 PM

Speaking of Phoenix, we've often talked about the downsides of building a metropolis in the middle of a parched desert.

But I didn't realize that 74% of Arizona's water goes to agriculture.

https://sustainability-innovation.asu.edu/food/news/archive/where-the-water-goes-water-in-arizonan-agriculture/

Why are we trying to grow crops in the desert?

Uhhhh, to eat?
How many cities don't have crops growing all around it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:26:53 PM

NYC

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:28:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:08:24 PM

Phoenix on Tuesday broke a heat record that stood in the city for nearly five decades. Shortly before noon local time, temperatures hit 110 degrees Fahrenheit, marking the 19th consecutive day at or above that mark — the most ever recorded in the city and an unenviable new milestone in the low desert.

The previous record was set in 1989 and was broken by one day obviously (so far). 

There were "only" 27 overall days at 110+ in 1989.  The top 5 overall days of 110+ in a year have all been since 2016.
The top of the list was 2020, with 50-something days of 110+.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 19, 2023, 04:32:14 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:34:24 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:28:48 PM

There were "only" 27 overall days at 110+ in 1989.  The top 5 overall days of 110+ in a year have all been since 2016.
The top of the list was 2020, with 50-something days of 110+.

I'd move north

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:35:08 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:26:53 PM

NYC

They have farms upstate.
.
Honestly, Phoenix probably has farming simply due to tradition.  The natives used the rivers to irrigate while they could, then they left when things probably dried up.
New natives came and saw the evidence of irrigation, so they did it, too, when I guess water returned to the valley.
And then the white man continued on.
And it'd be fine for 20,000 people or 100,000 or so.  But no.  We need to shoehorn like 2.5 million people with a damned-off river in an outdoor oven and raise crops, play on green golf courses, and all the other brilliance.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:35:25 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:24:25 PM

Uhhhh, to eat?
How many cities don't have crops growing all around it?

Atlanta has rather little agriculture around it.  A lot of our food today comes from California.  Desert land is nearly worthless, irrigate it and it becomes fairly valuable.  And folks don't usually eat cotton.


What We Grow | Arizona Department of Agriculture (az.gov)


Cotton is one of the original and major agricultural commodities produced in Arizona. (https://agriculture.az.gov/plantsproduce/what-we-grow)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:38:47 PM

5 Cs
cotton, citrus, copper, aaaaand 2 other ones.
.
Again, these are probably traditional and helped with the initial economics of he state, but are nearly meaningless today.
AZ isn't in the top 10 in cotton production by state now.
Citrus is similar.  CA and FL produce 98% of citrus in the U.S.  Texas and AZ the other 2%.
.
Arizona grows shit, but very little shit.  Because it doesn't rain.  Ever.  And it gets 1/6th of the Colorado River.  
And it's plan to swindle the Navajo out of their aquifer was foiled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:38:51 PM

How Arizona Cotton Is Fueling the West's Water Crisis - Killing the Colorado - ProPublica (https://projects.propublica.org/killing-the-colorado/story/arizona-cotton-drought-crisis/)

Cotton is one of the thirstiest crops in existence, and each acre cultivated here demands six times as much water as lettuce, 60 percent more than wheat. That precious liquid is pulled from a nearby federal reservoir, siphoned from beleaguered underground aquifers and pumped in from the Colorado River hundreds of miles away.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:40:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:20:14 PM

The land is usually fairly fertile, aside from water, and folks who bought the land realized they could make the land much more valuable by irrigating it.  I recall they grow a lot of cotton out there which has fairly high water demands.

The Central Valley in California is somewhat similar, very fertile, very dry, and enormously productive with irrigation.

Yeah, and I was drawn to look it up because apparently a lot of what they grow are feed crops (alfalfa being a big one). So they're not even growing food for human consumption, they're growing water-intensive feed crops to ship to other states. 

I know California grows a lot of crops that I assume do well in this climate, but it still seems strange that we're devoting a bunch of very scarce water to agriculture such that we aren't sure we'll have enough for people, when we've got HUGE empty states in the middle of the country that have plenty of water and very few people. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:41:44 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:40:23 PM

Yeah, and I was drawn to look it up because apparently a lot of what they grow are feed crops (alfalfa being a big one). So they're not even growing food for human consumption, they're growing water-intensive feed crops to ship to other states.

beef and pork and poultry production in Zona???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:41:50 PM

We might all agree they should not be growing cotton in AZ, grow something less water intensive, duh.  But then, how does anyone achieve that?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:42:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:38:51 PM

How Arizona Cotton Is Fueling the West's Water Crisis - Killing the Colorado - ProPublica (https://projects.propublica.org/killing-the-colorado/story/arizona-cotton-drought-crisis/)

Cotton is one of the thirstiest crops in existence, and each acre cultivated here demands six times as much water as lettuce, 60 percent more than wheat. That precious liquid is pulled from a nearby federal reservoir, siphoned from beleaguered underground aquifers and pumped in from the Colorado River hundreds of miles away.

apparently, the Cotton lobby is similar to the strength of the egg lobby

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:42:52 PM

Wuertz could plant any number of crops that use far less water than cotton and fill grocery store shelves from Maine to Minnesota. But along with hundreds of farmers across Arizona, he has kept planting his fields with cotton instead. He says he has done it out of habit, pride, practicality, and even a self-deprecating sense that he wouldn’t be good at anything else. But in truth, one reason outweighs all the others: The federal government has long offered him so many financial incentives to do it that he can’t afford not to.

“Some years all of what you made came from the government,” Wuertz said. “Your bank would finance your farming operation … because they knew the support was guaranteed. They wouldn’t finance wheat, or alfalfa. Cotton was always dependable, it would always work.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:43:58 PM

hah, not the government!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:45:44 PM

Same with almonds and avacados in CA.
It's all broken.
The climate you grow something in doesn't matter. Might as well grow oranges in North Dakota.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:46:50 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 04:41:44 PM

beef and pork and poultry production in Zona???

I know a lot of cows raised for beef graze for most of their lives, and then are just finished with feed to fatten them up before slaughter. 

W/O getting into politics, I heard about this related to LIV golf and the Saudis which leased a significant chunk of land in AZ and grow alfalfa with cheap water to ship back to Saudi Arabia to feed their dairy cows. I'd guess then that alfalfa is maybe used for dairy cows for milk & cheese, while corn is used to fatten up cows who will end up as beef?

Admittedly I'm neither a farmer nor a rancher, so this is out of my expertise. It's just always been strange to me how much we CONTINUE to devote resources to farming deserts. Maybe it made sense when much more of our society's food production was local, but now it really isn't. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:47:45 PM

How Arizona Cotton Is Fueling the West's Water Crisis - Killing the Colorado - ProPublica (https://projects.propublica.org/killing-the-colorado/story/arizona-cotton-drought-crisis/)

This is worth a few minutes to read I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:51:23 PM

Although we all know that California is the best cheese-producing state :57:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB-bcDBXvDA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:52:07 PM

Our society does so much stupid shit out of habit.  It's embarrassing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:58:23 PM

It's not as much habit as intransigence and vested interests.  The ethanol in gasoline program is another one, nearly everyone knows it's absurd, but it can't be stopped.  It's fun of course to blame liberals or conservatives, but they are (nearly) all guilty in my book.  If they weren't, they wouldn't get reelected.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 07:27:55 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 19, 2023, 04:35:08 PM

They have farms upstate.
.
Honestly, Phoenix probably has farming simply due to tradition.  The natives used the rivers to irrigate while they could, then they left when things probably dried up.
New natives came and saw the evidence of irrigation, so they did it, too, when I guess water returned to the valley.
And then the white man continued on.
And it'd be fine for 20,000 people or 100,000 or so.  But no.  We need to shoehorn like 2.5 million people with a damned-off river in an outdoor oven and raise crops, play on green golf courses, and all the other brilliance. 

Back when I was working in golf course design I did a few out there. We were required to use reclaimed water sources and I'm certain that's still the case.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 07:32:25 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2023, 04:51:23 PM

Although we all know that California is the best cheese-producing state :57:

Just because they (stupidly) produce the most does not make it the best.

Look to Vermont and Wisconsin for that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 07:35:46 AM

Nice work...


SNP admits to felling 16 million trees to develop wind farms in Scotland (telegraph.co.uk) (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/19/snp-chopped-down-16m-trees-develop-wind-farms-scotland/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 07:45:22 AM

4" of rain in 3 hours yesterday. Very thankful for that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2023, 08:28:46 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 07:32:25 AM

Just because they (stupidly) produce the most does not make it the best.

Look to Vermont and Wisconsin for that.

French cheese >>>>>>>> American cheese

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 08:46:54 AM

Depends on the variety.

I think Holland cheese is the very best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 09:19:51 AM

There are so many varieties I couldn't say which I like best.  I heard the Swiss make some good cheese but I don't know what it's called.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 09:30:13 AM

What Is Gruyère Cheese and What Does It Taste Like? (allrecipes.com) (https://www.allrecipes.com/article/what-is-gruyere-cheese/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2023, 10:17:46 AM

Good use for gruyere... (https://www.vindulge.com/brisket-grilled-cheese-sandwiches/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 10:30:32 AM

None better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2023, 10:37:33 AM

would be better if I could pronounce it and/or spell it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 11:35:35 AM

As the planet bakes, political agendas stall progress on climate change | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4105766-as-the-planet-bakes-political-agendas-stall-progress-on-climate-change/)

He still misses the central point in all of this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 11:47:45 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 20, 2023, 10:37:33 AM

would be better if I could pronounce it and/or spell it

Grewyare.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 20, 2023, 01:48:17 PM

It was 131 in my car yesterday, so that's fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 01:52:43 PM

My car is black on black.

For that reason alone, I'm thinking about making it go away.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 20, 2023, 01:53:25 PM

My car is a white.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 02:04:06 PM

That's what I'm leaning to. Maybe silver.

(https://i.imgur.com/ZYKgS6W.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 02:21:04 PM

I wanted white, but it's a bluegrey color, the AC is strong enough now to cool it off in a few seconds.

I haven't heard anything from my wife about a new one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2023, 02:27:27 PM

I don't have any interest in a black car. Not due to heat (although that's a small factor), but more that a black car looks like absolute TRASH unless it's spotless and clean. It shows EVERYTHING. And since we go 6+ months of the year with basically zero precipitation and a lot of dust in the air that ends up on a car, a car won't stay clean for more than 2 days. 

Silver hides dust/dirt much more effectively IMHO. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2023, 03:12:41 PM

I dislike white as a vehicle color

I like black as long as it's clean

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2023, 03:15:58 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PvuNAoG0XY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 03:48:34 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/8GcOLvU.jpg)

This was my favorite color with light tan interior.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2023, 03:55:28 PM

I prefer light tan interiors

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 03:56:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 03:48:34 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/8GcOLvU.jpg)

This was my favorite color with light tan interior. 

Is that what was once known as pearl white? I don't see that anymore.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 04:01:31 PM

White Diamond Tricoat

It wasn't quite white obviously, not a yellowish as the car shown either, just a really nice color IMHO.  We had major problems with the rims and tires.  And my wife thought it too big for the city.  Oddly enough it had a pretty firm ride, it had the MHD suspension but the adjustments didn't make much difference.  I think ride quality suffered because of the 35 profile run flat tires.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2023, 07:35:30 PM

X-energy, a company building next-generation nuclear reactors, announced Wednesday that it has an agreement with Energy Northwest to build up to 12 of the modular devices in Central Washington.

The news is something of a surprise after Maryland-based X-energy in March scuttled its plans to construct its first four demonstration reactors in the state, opting for a deal with chemical giant Dow to build in a Gulf state.


The new joint development agreement outlines the construction of the nuclear company’s Xe-100 advanced small modular reactors at a site in Richland, Wash., that is controlled by Energy Northwest and adjacent to Columbia Generating Station — the state’s only commercial nuclear power plant.

If all 12 reactors were built, they could generate up to a total of 960 megawatts of power, with the first reactor planned to come online by 2030.

The announcement did not disclose what the project is expected to cost or how it will be financed.

As the world strives to cut its use of carbon-emitting fossil fuels and slow global warming, there is renewed interest in nuclear power. Companies are developing smaller, less expensive reactors than were built in past decades. Energy generated from nuclear fission, or the splitting of atoms, doesn’t create carbon pollution, but does produce radioactive waste.

While wind and solar power installations have been rapidly expanding, power grids need some of their energy from sources that operate 24/7, which could include nuclear, hydroelectric dams, batteries and other alternatives.


“Energy Northwest’s mission is to provide the region with clean, reliable and affordable electricity, and X-energy’s innovative advanced reactor technology will be a valuable addition to our existing portfolio of carbon-free electric generating resources,” said Bob Schuetz, CEO of Energy Northwest, in a statement.

X-energy is proceeding with its arrangement with Dow in which it will deploy its first Xe-100 reactors at an existing Dow industrial site in Texas. That project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP). DOE awarded X-energy $1.2 billion to help fund the demonstration plant.

X-energy plans to begin building its four reactors in Texas in 2026, with construction completed by 2030.

Following the announcement of the Texas project, “Energy Northwest reinforced its plans to work with X-energy to bring our technology to Central Washington,” said Robert McEntyre, an X-energy spokesman, by email. “We’ve been working with their team since that time to determine the best path forward, and today’s announcement reflects that progress and their desire to be a fast-follower of ARDP.”

Washington state’s TerraPower, a next-gen nuclear power company backed by Bill Gates, is slated to build its first demonstration plant in Kemmerer, Wyo., on the site of one of the state’s retiring coal plants. That project is a $4 billion public-private venture with about $2 billion in support from the same DOE program that’s backing X-energy.

TerraPower announced last October that it was conducting a feasibility study to explore additional locations for up to five of its reactors. Those locations have not been publicized.

While both X-energy and TerraPower have been moving ahead with their plans, both face the challenge of securing reactor fuel. Russia is currently the world’s only commercial producer of HALEU (high-assay, low-enriched uranium fuel and pronounced hay-lou). That source was scrapped after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and ongoing war.

On Monday, TerraPower and Centrus Energy announced a memorandum of understanding to “significantly expand their collaboration” in an effort to establish commercial-scale, domestic production capabilities of HALEU. The fuel would be produced at a Centrus facility in Ohio.

TerraPower’s CEO last year warned that operation of its demonstration plant was going to slip at least two years to 2030 because of the lack of HALEU. The MOU should help TerraPower meet that new deadline, according to the companies.

X-energy previously announced plans to create a fuel production facility in Tennessee to supply its reactors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2023, 07:45:28 PM

Gruyere is good.  I eat it quite a bit.

Roquefort is better.

And behind gruyere, Switzerland has... nothing.

Behind Roquefort, France has dozens upon dozens of delicious cheeses.

Hey, Spain has one good cheese too, so Switzerland shouldn't feel too bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2023, 07:47:52 PM

cross the United States, coal-fired power plants are shutting down for good. In the last twenty years, over 600 have been retired. But just because these plants aren’t burning coal doesn’t mean they aren’t still being used. A trend is now emerging in a number of states to repurpose the plants to create new jobs and supply clean, renewable energy.

So, why would a solar farm, for example, want to be placed at the site of a non-operational coal plant?

It turns out that because these plants are already wired to the power grid — meaning that they’re already connected to the network of substations, transformers, wires, sensors, and poles that carry electricity from power plants to be distributed to our homes — installing new power plants at the site of old ones saves energy companies a lot of money and time.

Additionally, many oppose installing new power lines because they can spoil a nice backyard view, or even reduce your property’s value.


All these factors make existing coal plants ideal sites for new clean energy projects to set up shop. In the race to ramp up clean energy production across the United States, this is an important part of what the future looks like.

The idea to transition these sites has taken hold in a number of states, with Illinois leading the pack. In the Prairie State alone, there are currently nine plants that will become solar farms or battery storage facilities, the New York Times reports.

And more coastal states like New Jersey and Massachusetts are opting to repurpose their coal plants for new wind farms.

These switches make sense, as clean energy is quickly becoming the least expensive energy source available in many states. So the next time you hear about a coal plant shutting down, ask if it’ll still be working to supply your community with clean and cheap electricity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 07:51:07 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/20/world/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-sea-level-rise-climate/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2023, 08:15:52 PM

xxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is planning to build one of the world's largest lithium processing facilities in Arkansas, with a capacity to produce 75K-100K metric tons/year of lithium, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

At that scale, the plant's production would equate to ~15% of all finished lithium produced globally last year.

The giant project could be built in stages, with modular trains constructed together or in separate locations near its future lithium production sites in south Arkansas, according to the report.

Other companies including Standard Lithium (SLI) and Tetra Technologies (TTI) are planning to build capacity in the area.

The Smackover formation, a geologic trend that runs from Texas to Florida and is rich with saltwater brine which contains small amounts of lithium, and the companies are increasingly optimistic they can scale up technologies to extract it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2023, 09:24:34 AM

This guy is out of his mind.

Would an occasional blackout help solve climate change? (latimes.com) (https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-07-20/would-an-occasional-blackout-help-solve-climate-change-boiling-point)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2023, 09:25:50 AM

a year long blackout, maybe

similar to COVID lockdowns

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2023, 10:03:32 AM

I can list a LOT of things that would "help solve climate change", but none of them would do anything of substance (none that are practicable).

We can continue to shift to wind and solar, that "helps" (probably), but it's not nearly sufficient.  I could buy a more fuel efficient auto, that would "help", a trifling amount.  And someone would be driving our current vehicle anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2023, 10:08:08 AM

if we could somehow encourage 90% of the people on the planet to "help", a trifling amount

that might be something

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 21, 2023, 10:10:57 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2023, 09:24:34 AM

This guy is out of his mind.

Would an occasional blackout help solve climate change? (latimes.com) (https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-07-20/would-an-occasional-blackout-help-solve-climate-change-boiling-point)

It won't be long before someone comes up with a modest proposal to reduce emissions. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 21, 2023, 10:55:37 AM

Replying to CD's post from the rankings thread because it's more appropriate here...

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 21, 2023, 10:42:18 AM

That is what I think "we" learned when we did our own computer poll back when.  If it generated something odd, we "fixed" it, to the point it basically aligned with the human polls, more or less. 

This is a problem with climate modeling as well, they all have to align with past records (hoping they are accurate).  If they don't, they get adjusted.

This involves two interesting things...

• In general, this is or should be improving. Because we've been doing climate modeling long enough that we should be getting a track record of looking at the predictions of past models, and seeing whether they accurately predicted the current climate or not. So while the models had to be fitted to past records, the fact that models that might be built in say 2000 can be compared against results from 2000->2023 help to improve the models.
• It also means that the models are unlikely to predict "black swan" type events. Such as a rapid collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, or the idea that Greenland was actually green 400,000 years ago (which we didn't know about until recently, per your post from a few days ago). So when we're complacent based on "well the models don't predict X bad effect by 2100", that we need to recognize that might actually be a blindness in the model because we don't have many past records to compare to to test the model for those type of events. 

Which is an interesting conundrum. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2023, 12:17:32 PM

Yes, the constantly evolve using data from the past year.  If they don't predict well, they get finessed to fit the curve.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2023, 10:10:15 AM

For a cleaner energy future, we must embrace small nuclear reactors | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4110185-for-a-cleaner-energy-future-we-must-embrace-small-nuclear-reactors/)

The problem is one of timing and focus.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2023, 11:08:44 AM

The ITAACs - Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and Acceptance Criteria - must all be verified before fuel can be loaded into the new reactor. ITAACs are standards identified in the combined construction and operation licence for the plant which must be satisfied to provide reasonable assurance that the facility has been constructed and will operate in conformity with the licence, the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954, and the NRC's own rules and regulations. Most of the ITAACs arise from the design certification for the particular reactor technology used in the plant, with the rest being site-specific. A licensee cannot operate a facility until the NRC has verified that all ITAAC acceptance criteria are met, and the regulator has issued a finding to that effect under regulation 10 CFR 52.103(g): the 103(g) Letter.

The next stage, says Georgia Power, which is a subsidiary of Southern Power, is for receipt of the 103(g) finding from the NRC and then "no further NRC findings are necessary in order for Southern Nuclear to load fuel and begin the start-up sequence".

All 157 of the 14-foot-tall fuel assemblies required for the operation of Vogtle 4 have now been delivered to the site and inspected and transferred to new fuel storage racks before being placed into the used fuel pool where they will be stored until loaded in unit 4's reactor.

The unit completed hot functional testing - which confirms the reactor is ready to be loaded with nuclear fuel - in May. Fuel loading is expected to take place later this year, with Vogtle 4 scheduled to enter service either late this year or early in 2024.

It is now just over 10 years since construction of two Westinghouse AP1000s began at the site near Waynesboro. Work started on unit 3 in March 2013 and unit 4 in November of that year. Vogtle 3, the first new reactor to start-up in the USA since 2016, reached first criticality in March, was connected to the electricity grid in April and reached full power on 30 May and is in the final stages of start-up testing.

Southern Nuclear and Georgia Power, both subsidiaries of Southern Company, took over management of the construction project in 2017 following Westinghouse's Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The units are co-owned by Georgia Power, Oglethorpe Power, MEAG Power and Dalton Utilities, and will be operated by Southern Nuclear.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2023, 11:38:36 AM

Anyone use this thing?

MiracleWatt (https://miraclewatt.com/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2023, 11:49:09 AM

nope, the current in my home seems solid

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2023, 12:19:04 PM

We are subject to surges here, with all the storms. We have protection after the meter, but I was just wondering about this thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2023, 03:45:11 PM

Washington governor: Climate change ‘pounding on the door’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4114433-washington-governor-climate-change-pounding-on-the-door/)

More shallowness instead of thinking, logic, and a PLAN.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2023, 03:49:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2023, 03:45:11 PM

Washington governor: Climate change ‘pounding on the door’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4114433-washington-governor-climate-change-pounding-on-the-door/)

More shallowness instead of thinking, logic, and a PLAN.

screwing with home generators aint the solution

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2023, 06:59:38 PM

Note:  leaving a 12-pack of soda cans in the back of your car for an afternoon in 115 degree heat yields pregnant soda cans.
Looks like 1 of them may have burst, but I think the soda immediately evaporated....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 07:42:55 AM

Watched a lot of documentaries on WWII yesterday and it got me thinking.

We've had a lot of wars, and still do.

How much does war contribute to climate change?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 07:58:35 AM

Militaries contribute a fair bit, I don't know the percentage, of CO2 produced by humans.  Military jets consume a lot of fuel, though there are a lot more civilian airliners of course.  Most Navy ships burn oil.  Then there is the energy that goes into making weapons, and explosives.  Good question.

The more I look for any kind of plan and find silly editorials that we need to burn less oil/coal the more I'm convinced we're going to run this experiment, there won't be any substantive reductions in CO2, or even leveling of it, globally, for a long time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 08:12:10 AM

Any CO2 here?

(https://i.imgur.com/1q0bwKV.png)

Or here?

(https://i.imgur.com/upuxXmY.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 08:15:52 AM

Fires, yes, though the oil would have been burned at some point anyway.  Explosives don't release a lot of CO2, the release a lot of NOx compounds.   It's likely a factor.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 08:34:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/K1l8wcD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 09:07:46 AM

There isn't comparatively much CO2 from volcanoes annually.  They do throw a lot of SOx and soot into the atmosphere which usually has a cooling effect.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 09:43:44 AM

we have this Saharan dust thing over us right now. Doesn't seem to be doing any cooling.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 09:45:04 AM

Aerosols in the stratosphere would induce cooling.  It can be quite prominent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 12:25:30 PM

Nuclear power will not be part of Australia's energy mix: Minister (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/07/22/nuclear-power-will-not-be-part-of-australias-energy-mix-minister.html?&recirc=taboolainternal)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 11:14:00 PM

God bless the minister

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 11:16:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 08:15:52 AM

Fires, yes, though the oil would have been burned at some point anyway.  

yes, maybe 100 years from now
maybe not

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2023, 08:42:28 AM

Keeping contentious nuclear plant open could cost Californians $45B: report | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4117145-keeping-contentious-nuclear-plant-open-could-cost-californians-45b-report/)

Extending operations of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant through 2045 could cost California ratepayers as much as $45 billion, a new report has found.

The state’s biggest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), is currently in the process of seeking a license renewal that could enable the aging facility to run for another 20 years — with the widespread support of state legislators, but in opposition to environmental activists.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 25, 2023, 10:25:36 AM

I suppose $50 bill won't come close to building a new nuke plant

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2023, 02:29:29 PM

Vogtle 3 and 4 had bad cost overruns and hit $30 billion, for two power reactors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2023, 09:40:48 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/world/gulf-stream-atlantic-current-collapse-climate-scn-intl/index.html

This would be bad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2023, 10:53:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 25, 2023, 09:40:48 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/world/gulf-stream-atlantic-current-collapse-climate-scn-intl/index.html

This would be bad

CNN at its best

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2023, 11:00:43 PM

It's a report on CNN, but it's an actual report of some findings reported that could be wrong, we don't know, but it would be bad if they are right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2023, 11:02:25 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 25, 2023, 11:00:43 PM

It's a report on CNN, but it's an actual report of some findings reported that could be wrong, we don't know, but it would be bad if they are right.

we'll just have to wait 20 years to find out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2023, 07:21:20 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 25, 2023, 09:40:48 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/world/gulf-stream-atlantic-current-collapse-climate-scn-intl/index.html

This would be bad

Been thinking about this lately. Yes, it would be bad.

Has it already started? That's my question.

Water in the Gulf is super-hot right now. Like 100 degrees hot. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2023, 07:50:21 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2023, 07:21:20 AM

Been thinking about this lately. Yes, it would be bad.

Has it already started? That's my question.

Water in the Gulf is super-hot right now. Like 100 degrees hot.

Water in Pensacola was nice and cool when we were there.  Much cooler than standard Texas beaches.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2023, 08:31:21 AM

This is a map of current water temps in the Southern Gulf and Carribean. Average is around 84.

(https://i.imgur.com/u4eIEJp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2023, 08:37:08 AM

The water temperature on the tip of Florida hit hot tub levels, exceeding 100 degrees (37.8 degrees Celsius) two days in a row. And meteorologists say that could potentially be the hottest seawater ever measured, although there are some issues with the reading.

Just 26 miles (40 kilometers) away, scientists saw devastating effects from prolonged hot water surrounding Florida — devastating coral bleaching and even some death in what had been one of the Florida Keys’ most resilient reefs. Climate change has been setting temperature records across the globe this month.

Weather records for sea water temperature are unofficial, and there are certain conditions in this reading that could disqualify it for a top mark, meteorologists said. But the initial reading on a buoy at Manatee Bay hit 101.1 degrees (38.4 Celsius) Monday evening, according to National Weather Service meteorologist George Rizzuto. On Sunday night the same buoy showed an online reading of 100.2 (37.9 Celsius) degrees.


“It seems plausible,” Rizzuto said. “That is a potential record.”

While there aren’t official water temperature records, a 2020 study listed a 99.7 degree (37.6 Celsius) mark in Kuwait Bay in July 2020 as the world’s highest recorded sea surface temperature. Rizzuto said a new record from Florida is plausible because nearby buoys measured in the 98 and 99 (36.7 and 37.2 Celsius) degree range.

“This is a hot tub. I like my hot tub around 100, 101, (37.8, 38.3 Celsius). That’s what was recorded yesterday,” said Yale Climate Connections meteorologist Jeff Masters. Hot tub maker Jacuzzi recommends water between 100 and 102 degrees (37.8 and 38.9 Celsius).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2023, 08:45:41 AM

First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor Achieved, Claim Scientists | IFLScience (https://www.iflscience.com/first-room-temperature-ambient-pressure-superconductor-achieved-claim-scientists-70001)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2023, 09:14:10 AM

still hoping for a breakthrough

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2023, 09:56:00 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeSwrFKFNFw

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2023, 10:00:11 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2023, 09:14:10 AM

still hoping for a breakthrough

I'm sure we all are.  A RT superconductor would be huge, if the thing is reasonably cheap.  I am slightly encouraged by some of the recent news on fusion though I lean to thinking they are mostly scams.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2023, 11:32:43 AM

While it makes for endless dad jokes, it’s a myth that cow farts cause global warming.

Cows actually burp out methane as their complex ruminant digestive systems break down plant materials, explains Dr. Sara Place, an animal science professor at Colorado State University.

Activist groups often blame cattle emissions – or to put it bluntly, cow farts – for climate change. That’s because cows emit methane, a greenhouse gas linked to global warming.

Cattle and other ruminant animals account for about 4% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to the U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA).

In comparison, our transportation system — including cars, planes and more — accounts for more than 25.3 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

Research shows that removing all livestock and poultry from the U.S. food system would only reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 0.36%, she notes.

Plus, studies have shown that if we eliminated all livestock from U.S. farms, our diets would be deficient in vital nutrients – including high-quality protein, iron and vitamin B12 – that meat provides, Place says.

“People want to act. I don’t doubt the good intentions. People want to make a positive difference,” Place says. “But if somebody does ‘Meatless Mondays,’ they are making no difference at all.”



How has U.S. cattle farming innovated to be more environmentally friendly?
Iowa farmers remain committed to continuous improvement to ensure the safety, nutrition and sustainability of the foods they grow for all.

Specifically, cattle farming in the United States is the most environmentally friendly and sustainable in the world, says Dr. Frank Mitloehner, an animal scientist and air quality specialist at the University of California-Davis.

For example, the U.S. dairy industry’s carbon footprint has shrunk by two-thirds since the 1950s, Mitloehner says.

Cows may still belch, but U.S. farmers are raising fewer cows. Today, there are about 9 million dairy cows in the United States, compared to 25 million dairy cows in 1950. That helps drive down potential greenhouse gas emissions like carbon dioxide and methane.

However, even with much fewer cows, U.S. dairy farms now produce 60% more milk than in 1950 thanks to improvements in farm animal care, sustainability and technology, Mitloehner says.

Also worth noting, while methane is a potent greenhouse gas, it rapidly decays in 12 years, Mitloehner says. In comparison, carbon dioxide – released by burning fossil fuels - lasts in the air for hundreds of years.

So if a cattle farm has existed for 12 years – and many cattle farms in Iowa have operated for generations - those established farms are carbon neutral and aren’t creating any new methane emissions, Mitloehner says.



Is beef a nutritious and sustainably produced food?
As for beef’s role in a sustainable diet, Place explains that cattle are natural “upcyclers.”

Cattle can consume plant material – such as grasses, corn stalks, cottonseed hulls, ethanol byproducts and more – that are inedible to humans because of cattle’s unique ruminant digestive system.

Without cattle, these plant materials would end up in landfills, Place says. And food waste in landfills is one of the biggest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

“When you talk about nutrition and sustainability, cattle play a unique role as ruminants in the larger ag and food system,” Place says. “They are taking what we can’t consume and upgrading those resources into high-quality beef.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 26, 2023, 12:52:20 PM

IMHO the issue with talking about cattle, or talking about plant waste in landfills, is that both are part of the natural carbon (and methane) cycle of the earth. 

10,000 years ago, maybe we weren't raising so many cattle, but bison roamed the prairies of North America, eating grasses and (I assume) burping out methane. 

I have full faith the Earth could naturally sink the amounts of CO2 and methane produced by livestock and farming. It's only a problem when it's added on top of all the fossil fuels we're burning that are overwhelming those natural sinks. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on July 27, 2023, 11:45:33 AM

It was hotter in the 1930s.  Therefore, one could conclude that it has been cooling off since then.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/not-climate-change-causing-heat-waves-this-summer-explain (https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/not-climate-change-causing-heat-waves-this-summer-explain)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2023, 03:05:41 PM

the climate change heatwave finally got to NW Iowa

we've had a mild summer so far, just lack of rain

today expected high of 99

presently it's 91 degrees with 70% humidity

fell like index says 123

I won't be golfing this afternoon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2023, 03:08:58 PM

I'm off for the pool, or maybe, just off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2023, 08:14:43 AM

Nothing in the Atlantic of note so far?  I know "we" were tracking some stuff earlier.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 29, 2023, 09:03:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2023, 03:05:41 PM

the climate change heatwave finally got to NW Iowa

we've had a mild summer so far, just lack of rain

today expected high of 99

presently it's 91 degrees with 70% humidity

fell like index says 123

I won't be golfing this afternoon

Ha.  We've had that daily since early June.  How cool does it get at night?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2023, 09:10:06 AM

last couple nights only down to the mid 70s

heatwave broke after 3 days

it's 66 degrees now expected high of 83

golf weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2023, 09:10:37 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 29, 2023, 08:14:43 AM

Nothing in the Atlantic of note so far?  I know "we" were tracking some stuff earlier.

There's one out there, lobbed from Africa. It will probably get to be a tropical storm. No chance of any US impacts.

They call those "fish storms" around here.


(https://i.imgur.com/ZOM8RpF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2023, 01:33:44 PM

There’s no such thing as a new nuclear golden age–just old industry hands trying to make a buck
BYSTEPHANIE COOKE
July 28, 2023


https://fortune.com/2023/07/28/no-new-nuclear-golden-age-just-old-industry-hands-trying-to-make-a-buck-energy-politics-stephanie-cooke/ (https://fortune.com/2023/07/28/no-new-nuclear-golden-age-just-old-industry-hands-trying-to-make-a-buck-energy-politics-stephanie-cooke/)

When it comes to costs and schedules, the lack of honesty surrounding nuclear projects is often breathtaking. In Georgia, where two Westinghouse reactors at Vogtle have been under construction since 2009, only one is completed and is now struggling to achieve commercial operation after multiple unplanned reactor and turbine trips, according to recent Georgia Public Service Commission staff testimony. That testimony also included allegations that utility executives have been providing “materially inaccurate” cost estimates over the project’s life. Vogtle’s estimated total $33 billion cost, as outlined in the testimony, versus $13.3 billion originally estimated makes it the most expensive power plant ever built in the United States. Most of the tab is being footed by ratepayers, with the US taxpayer, via DOE, providing $12 billion in loans. 

And still, the messaging that nuclear is a must for reducing emissions goes on at a fever pitch. But the message is distorted: The industry cannot deliver what is needed. The U.S. lost its industrial base, including heavy forging capacity, decades ago–and the costs of a major nuclear buildout could now be in the trillions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2023, 10:59:21 AM

No solutions.

Meteorologist: Humanity has reached 'a point we cannot return from' as ocean temperatures soar (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/meteorologist-humanity-has-reached-a-point-we-cannot-return-from-as-ocean-temperatures-soar/ar-AA1eyhjh?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=65fb6b5ad86b4d06aa60bd224cf5a72a&ei=12)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2023, 11:18:46 AM

I've clearly pointed out that there is no solution (other than complete economic collapse globally).  It's past time we started being honest about this, but all people do is gnash their molars more and more stridently.

Somebody should DO something!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2023, 12:16:52 PM

Too late.

Even if we got back to nuclear and made it our primary source for power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2023, 12:22:20 PM

Nuclear indeed could have helped back in 1990 or so, if we replaced coal it would be a pretty nice dent.  Transportation remains a large problem today.  If half the cars on the road are ICE vehicles in 2050 ... it's just not nearly fast enough, if the models are close to right.

No need to mention China/india/et al.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2023, 02:21:55 PM

Neal Stephenson has a novel, Termination Shock (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08WLWC6GZ/), that I just finished. Good book, especially if you like Neal Stephenson's work. And unlike some of his early stuff, he actually finished it properly. No Deux Ex Machina needed this time. 

I bring it up here because the book centers around a very interesting geoengineering project to deal with warming. I'm not going to get into it here lest I give up spoilers--I don't think we have a "spoiler" text option here--but highly recommend the book. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 10:05:01 AM

The newly appointed head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jim Skea, spoke to two major German news outlets over the weekend, soon after his appointment to the role.

Speaking to weekly magazine Der Spiegel, in an interview first published on Saturday, Skea warned against laying too much value on the international community's current nominal target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared the pre-industrial era.

"We should not despair and fall into a state of shock" if global temperatures were to increase by this amount, he said.

In a separate discussion with German news agency DPA, Skea expanded on why.

"If you constantly communicate the message that we are all doomed to extinction, then that paralyzes people and prevents them from taking the necessary steps to get a grip on climate change," he said.

"The world won't end if it warms by more than 1.5 degrees," Skea told Der Spiegel. "It will however be a more dangerous world."

Surpassing that mark would lead to many problems and social tensions, he said, but still that would not constitute an existential threat to humanity.

The international community's stated target is currently to limit global warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, even though UN estimates suggest that the current commitments made by countries are actually likely to fall far short of their nominal goal.

The UN estimates that within roughly a decade, the target is liable to be breached.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 10:38:01 AM

Eleventh Japanese reactor resumes operation


Unit 1 of the Takahama nuclear power plant in Japan's Fukui Prefecture has been restarted after being taken offline more than 12 years ago. Kansai Electric Power Company plans to return the 780 MWe (net) pressurised water reactor (PWR) to commercial operation at the end of August.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Eleventh-Japanese-reactor-resumes-operation (https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Eleventh-Japanese-reactor-resumes-operation)

Seems the Japanese can do it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2023, 07:14:57 AM

Extreme heat: A green backlash is sweeping across the U.S. and Europe (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/extreme-heat-a-green-backlash-is-sweeping-across-the-us-and-europe.html)

New term, "Greenlash", political movement against climate stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 01, 2023, 08:53:42 AM

Great. Now it has a name.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2023, 09:08:17 AM

How Can State Governments Mitigate Climate Change? | AllSides (https://www.allsides.com/blog/how-can-state-governments-mitigate-climate-change)

Kind of a back and forth here with no one offering any specifics beyond the usual, W&S&EVs yay.

Show me a plan, any kind of crude plan, with timing, impact on CC, and costs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2023, 10:01:16 AM

Biden admin begins enforcing nationwide lightbulb bans, igniting backlash from GOP: 'Liberal fantasies' | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-begins-enforcing-nationwide-light-bulb-bans-backlash-gop)

What about heat lamps? Restaurants use them to keep food warm while preparing other food in the order. I'd hope they would be exempt from this regulation (and the gas stove one).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2023, 11:37:33 AM

Not much going on out there.

Bryan Norcross: Kicking off August with a struggling Atlantic system Invest 96L, dusty tropics (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/bryan-norcross-kicking-off-august-with-a-struggling-atlantic-system-invest-96l-dusty-tropics/ar-AA1eDyaE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=32676aefe5eb4c3bbed38e1b1a75df91&ei=11)

(https://i.imgur.com/xnykIFu.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2023, 07:54:42 AM

Phoenix sets record of 31 straight days of 110-degree temps (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/phoenix-sets-record-of-31-straight-days-of-110-degree-temps.html)

Phoenix is accustomed to hot weather in the summer, but global warming trends have added heat, according to research from scientists at the World Weather Attribution, an organization that quantifies (https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/about/) how much of an extreme weather event is attributable to climate change.  

The organization’s scientists “found that the Southwest heat wave in July was almost 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer as a result of climate change,” Erinanne M. Saffell (https://search.asu.edu/profile/88217), Arizona’s state climatologist and director of the Arizona State Climate Office, told CNBC.
The heat in Phoenix was also a result of a stubborn weather pattern called a “heat dome,” lack of rain, and what Saffell called “an extreme heat island,” where buildings, roads and the infrastructure of urban areas contribute to higher temperatures than more rural areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2023, 07:56:48 AM

The average high for Phoenix in July is 104°F.  I'm curious how they can calculate the 4°F extra due to CC AND add this heat dome impact.

I was in Vegas for a conference in 1980 and it was 115°F every day, or more, in August.  Nobody seemed to think it that unusual.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2023, 08:53:35 AM

Nothing going on in the Atlantic now. Everything has fizzled out. Good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2023, 09:02:21 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/h1OcEop.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2023, 09:13:14 AM

Eh, we could use a nice big but mild tropical storm blowing up through the gulf, washing over the Texas coastline, and then stalling out over Central Texas for a few days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2023, 09:21:17 AM

Iran begins two-day nationwide shutdown due to soaring temperatures (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/02/iran-begins-two-day-nationwide-shutdown-due-to-soaring-temperatures.html)

• Iran on Wednesday began a two-day nationwide shutdown because of soaring temperatures.
• Government spokesman Ali Bahadori Jahromi said “unprecedented heat” had forced the closures of governmental offices, banks and schools, according to the state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency.
• The two-day shutdown comes at a time of record-breaking extreme heat worldwide, with July poised to be the hottest month in history.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2023, 09:22:25 AM

Can't speak for anywhere else, but this past July was certainly the hottest on record for Central Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2023, 09:31:11 AM

It has been quite normal here in the ATL, highs around 90°, a few days around 95°F, rain often around 5 PM for half an hour.  Yesterday was pretty pleasant, in the shade.  Forecast 88°F today.  Our summer has been typical here.

Atlanta, GA 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com (https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/f571da531af5fa018983700b738adfdb40dc04f959eed1269b4afffef810e180)

Heat waves make the news in summer, but they don't talk about somewhere experiencing unusually cold weather when we're in summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2023, 09:43:27 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 02, 2023, 09:22:25 AM

Can't speak for anywhere else, but this past July was certainly the hottest on record for Central Texas.

Here too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2023, 09:31:16 PM

cooler than normal in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2023, 10:37:36 PM

Fake news!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on August 03, 2023, 07:05:03 AM

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm but luckily no hurricanes so far.  Kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on August 03, 2023, 08:17:13 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 02, 2023, 09:31:16 PM

cooler than normal in Iowa

We had two 90 degree days in July, we average seven in a normal July month. Our hottest day of the summer was a round 90 degrees.  As with Iowa, our summer has not been hot by any definition.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2023, 08:54:07 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on August 03, 2023, 08:17:13 AM

We had two 90 degree days in July, we average seven in a normal July month. Our hottest day of the summer was a round 90 degrees.  As with Iowa, our summer has not been hot by any definition.

Global cooling.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2023, 09:53:30 AM

First part of Idaho SMR licence application submitted

CFPP LLC has applied to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for a Limited Work Authorisation to begin early construction activities for the proposed Carbon Free Power Plant (CFPP) on a site at the Idaho National Laboratory. Early-scope construction is expected to begin in mid-2025, with a view to commercial operation of the first NuScale power module at the site by the end of 2029.


https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-part-of-Idaho-SMR-licence-application-submit (https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/First-part-of-Idaho-SMR-licence-application-submit)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2023, 10:05:05 AM

Direct air capture is slowly getting off the ground, with plants up and running in Iceland, Switzerland, the US, and Canada. Much of the carbon these facilities capture is either turned into a solid and stored underground or reused to manufacture various chemicals and industrial products. Now a startup called Twelve is planning to use captured CO2 to make jet fuel.

The company named their carbon conversion platform Opus. The system is modular and can be implemented in existing supply chains, taking CO2 from almost any source. The process uses electrolysis to separate the carbon and oxygen, then recombines the carbon with hydrogen to create fuel. The CO2 will be sourced from nearby ethanol plants, pulp and paper mills, and waste processing facilities.

The US Air Force tested the fuel to ensure it can be safely used without altering existing plane engines. Replacing half of a plane’s regular fuel with CO2-derived fuel can result in 90 percent fewer lifecycle emissions. Alaska Airlines has already agreed to buy fuel from Twelve.

Twelve broke ground on its factory in Washington state earlier this month. The geographic choice was due to several factors. For one, Seattle has long been a hub for aerospace innovation; SpaceX, Blue Origin, Boeing, AeroTEC, and others all have operations there. Washington also has tax incentives for sustainable aviation fuel. And two-thirds of the state’s electricity is generated by hydropower, giving it one of the highest percentages of clean energy in the country.

The facility will initially produce around 40,000 gallons of fuel a year, eventually scaling up to a million gallons a year. That’s a drop in an Olympic-sized swimming pool when taken in the context of total consumption, which reached an all-time high of 95 billion gallons in 2019.


https://singularityhub.com/2023/07/31/a-new-us-plant-will-use-captured-co2-to-make-millions-of-gallons-of-jet-fuel/ (https://singularityhub.com/2023/07/31/a-new-us-plant-will-use-captured-co2-to-make-millions-of-gallons-of-jet-fuel/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 10:35:19 AM

Entropy says carbon capture is going to require a lot of enthalpy, from somewhere.  It's a really bad equation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2023, 10:57:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 10:35:19 AM

Entropy says carbon capture is going to require a lot of enthalpy, from somewhere.  It's a really bad equation.

TANSTAAFL.

That said, if you can use renewables to provide the energy needed for carbon capture, to avoid adding to GHG emissions (since you're just re-emitting what was already burned once), it might help slow the rise of atmospheric CO2 levels. 

And now, THAT said, it probably doesn't pencil out, can't scale, and will ultimately amount to nothing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:02:53 AM

I would just use the energy to power the grid, not force it into a thermodynamically really bad upside down effort.  To me, it's a gimmick, something meant to get headlines, not reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2023, 11:14:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:02:53 AM

I would just use the energy to power the grid, not force it into a thermodynamically really bad upside down effort.  To me, it's a gimmick, something meant to get headlines, not reality.

Oh, no argument there. Some startup needs extra VC funding, so they publicize something that is a niche right now but they think can scale 5 years from now... And will always be 5 years away. 

I do think carbon capture is one area that should be significantly looked at, though. That article I posted a couple months back about growing plants and then burying them underground in airtight holds with salt to dry everything out enough to inhibit decomposition seems like a better option. You use the sun's energy (w/o requiring photovoltaics) to grow those crops, so it's much simpler and seems more likely to scale at a more reasonable cost. 

Per the other article that was posted about AZ and cotton, maybe if we could subsidize farmers to grow this instead of cotton, and bury it in the AZ desert, it might actually do something useful. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:16:15 AM

Yeah, I've noted before we have plants already doing this, inefficiently but "free" for land and water.

South Georgia has a lot of land not good for much, tree farms mostly.  Plant eucalyptus and bury the trees after 7 years and repeat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2023, 11:19:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:16:15 AM

Yeah, I've noted before we have plants already doing this, inefficiently but "free" for land and water.

South Georgia has a lot of land not good for much, tree farms mostly.  Plant eucalyptus and bury the trees after 7 years and repeat.

Yep, but also as noted, plants are great at this--until they die and decompose. Then all the carbon they have sequestered gets released. 

The issue is that burying is hard unless you can actually stop the decomposition. Just burying something won't do it. So burying in a way to stop that carbon from escaping I think most have determined would require high expense--the idea of burying in a airtight environment with high salt content might be a low-cost method.  

Worth investigating to see if it can scale at least IMHO. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 03, 2023, 11:20:42 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 02, 2023, 09:22:25 AM

Can't speak for anywhere else, but this past July was certainly the hottest on record for Central Texas.

In Northern Ohio, the temps have been pleasantly below normal. I have only had the AC on a couple of days this summer. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2023, 08:43:50 AM

Extreme heat: Global ocean temperatures are now hotter than ever (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/07/extreme-heat-global-ocean-temperatures-are-now-hotter-than-ever.html)

Articles lay out the problem, which is necessary, but nobody deals with a proposed actual solution, other than "do something" ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2023, 10:16:51 AM

I'd think all the melting glaciers would be cooling the oceans

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2023, 10:18:44 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 07, 2023, 10:16:51 AM

I'd think all the melting glaciers would be cooling the oceans

Ha.  The mass balance here is way off of course.

I keep reading fears that the oceanic currents may well get changed majorly in time, perhaps soonish.  That theory seems to come and go and come.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2023, 01:23:39 PM

Energy Department gets energy gain from nuclear fusion for the second time | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4141712-energy-department-gets-energy-gain-from-nuclear-fusion-for-the-second-time/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2023, 12:14:26 PM

Champagne's taste could change forever, thanks to climate change (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/champagnes-taste-could-change-forever-thanks-to-climate-change.html)

I think the wine industry is most sensitive to any climate changes of all the ag products.  They should notice first, and many say they already have.  And it most cases, they can't move further north to offset it because of geography and soil etc.

Napa is unusual in that going south gets a cooler climate.  We could see Lake and Mendocino counties becoming more and more relevant in CA wines.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 08, 2023, 10:06:01 PM

some of the wine industry has moved to England or someplace north according to 60 minutes

maybe buy some land in Oregon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2023, 07:09:02 AM

The problem is that much of the wine growing regions can't move for geographic/terroir reasons (and legal reasons).  And yes, folks can open up new more northerly areas, but not very profitably, at least initially.  Oregon of course has a pretty extensive and well regarded wine region, as does Washington state, (in a different area entirely).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2023, 09:18:02 AM

China’s unwavering commitment to coal is a bucket of cold water over green global visions | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4140591-chinas-unbroken-commitment-to-coal-is-bucket-of-cold-water-over-green-global-visions/)



Last year, there was a 38 percent increase in new coal-fired generating capacity under development in China. That translates to about 366 gigawatts of new coal generation (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Coal-Boom-Is-Undermining-Global-Phase-Out-Efforts.html).


As long as China shows no sign whatsoever of reducing its dependence on coal or its carbon footprint, it is useless for lawmakers and regulators in developed countries to torture their own citizens by restricting their access to affordable energy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2023, 09:28:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 09, 2023, 09:18:02 AM

China’s unwavering commitment to coal is a bucket of cold water over green global visions | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4140591-chinas-unbroken-commitment-to-coal-is-bucket-of-cold-water-over-green-global-visions/)



Last year, there was a 38 percent increase in new coal-fired generating capacity under development in China. That translates to about 366 gigawatts of new coal generation (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Coal-Boom-Is-Undermining-Global-Phase-Out-Efforts.html).


As long as China shows no sign whatsoever of reducing its dependence on coal or its carbon footprint, it is useless for lawmakers and regulators in developed countries to torture their own citizens by restricting their access to affordable energy.

That would take away the enjoyment of the regulators and some lawmakers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2023, 09:34:39 AM

(https://www.euractiv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/Greta_Thunberg_pissed.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2023, 09:45:49 AM

It's the basis for why I keep saying "we" need to be honest and realistic about all of this stuff.  But "we're" not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2023, 09:58:14 AM

I don't worry about it too much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2023, 10:11:05 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 09, 2023, 09:58:14 AM

I don't worry about it too much

(https://i.imgur.com/Kv0X5EL.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2023, 10:19:51 AM

she's worrying about it enough for both of us

trust me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 09, 2023, 01:15:46 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 03, 2023, 11:20:42 AM

In Northern Ohio, the temps have been pleasantly below normal. I have only had the AC on a couple of days this summer.

Jesus.  It's been unbearably hot here since early June.  I can't even imagine a world where you are only running the AC a few days in summer.  We run ours day and night, between 72-76 deg F.  It's 102 outside today.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2023, 01:19:02 PM

83°F here right now, I was out running, got up a good sweat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 09, 2023, 01:19:20 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 09, 2023, 10:19:51 AM

she's worrying about it enough for both of us

trust me

She's making enough for both of you to. And her private jet she pokes holes in the ozone along with Kerryis faster than your camero..... or golf cart

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2023, 01:20:14 PM

I have wondered how sincere she is, or if she was at first and fell in love with her 15 minutes, and then sold out.  Or her parents did.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 09, 2023, 01:21:38 PM

Last wo days here maybe the nicest of all summer 79-81 with a breeze and no humidity 😎. And I'm washing down a neighbors gutters/awnings/siding

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2023, 01:25:29 PM

74 here, partly cloudy.
80% humidity - got rain this morning about 3am

2:30 tee time

my electric bill was under $60 again last month - 4 months in a row

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on August 09, 2023, 09:31:34 PM

Awful what's happening in Maui. Lahaina looks devastated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2023, 10:52:18 PM

Quote from: MarqHusker on August 09, 2023, 09:31:34 PM

Awful what's happening in Maui. Lahaina looks devastated.

Yep. 

Guess where my kids are right now... At the Hyatt in Lahaina. With their mom and that side of the family. 

I spent from 8 AM PT until 6 PM PT not knowing if they were ok. Thankfully, it's all good. 

Fun day. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: bayareabadger on August 09, 2023, 11:43:08 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2023, 10:52:18 PM

Yep.

Guess where my kids are right now... At the Hyatt in Lahaina. With their mom and that side of the family.

I spent from 8 AM PT until 6 PM PT not knowing if they were ok. Thankfully, it's all good.

Fun day.

Ugh, that sounds a degree of awful. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 10, 2023, 04:39:31 AM

I've only been to Maui once, but the videos are shocking.  We're scheduled to go to the Big right before Christmas.  I don't think it has been as hard hit so far.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 10, 2023, 05:03:00 AM

Offshore Wind Power Has a Big Problem. Prepare to Pay More. - Barrons (https://www.barrons.com/articles/offshore-wind-power-energy-costs-24a9b387?mod=sm_fb_ad_kw&kwp_0=2289429&kwp_4=6464907&kwp_1=2771086&fbclid=IwAR3NFwrP6iyl6lP-i_jkZ6MGtPOTBn3G9bQd8grDDex9baGgJe-QwuygHbE)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2023, 04:29:09 PM

Today it's 75 here in Mission Viejo. I'm reading it's close to a record low for this day historically. 

Cool enough to avoid the AC, so it's probably saving me $30 lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2023, 04:46:34 PM

104 here in beautiful Cedar Park, Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2023, 04:59:33 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 10, 2023, 04:46:34 PM

104 here in beautiful Cedar Park, Texas.

right back at ya with a 103 here in Northwest Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2023, 05:02:44 PM

don't move there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2023, 08:55:36 AM

Quote from: bayareabadger on August 09, 2023, 11:43:08 PM

Ugh, that sounds a degree of awful.

More degrees than one.

Glad the kids are OK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 11, 2023, 08:59:09 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2023, 10:52:18 PM

Guess where my kids are right now... At the Hyatt in Lahaina. With their mom and that side of the family.

I spent from 8 AM PT until 6 PM PT not knowing if they were ok. Thankfully, it's all good.

Glad they are all right,hoping for the best moving forward for those affected

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2023, 09:24:51 AM

Those pictures from Maui are devastating. Geez.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2023, 09:46:23 AM

Guess the Maui Wowie crop is going to be scant this year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2023, 09:47:32 AM

probably how the fire was started

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on August 11, 2023, 11:22:28 AM

Does taking carbon dioxide out of the air and pumping it underground make sense?   It seems to me more CO2 would just enter the air from the oceans,

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4148157-biden-administration-announces-funds-for-projects-to-pull-carbon-from-the-air/ (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4148157-biden-administration-announces-funds-for-projects-to-pull-carbon-from-the-air/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2023, 11:47:56 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on August 11, 2023, 11:22:28 AM

Does taking carbon dioxide out of the air and pumping it underground make sense?  It seems to me more CO2 would just enter the air from the oceans,

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4148157-biden-administration-announces-funds-for-projects-to-pull-carbon-from-the-air/ (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4148157-biden-administration-announces-funds-for-projects-to-pull-carbon-from-the-air/)

Yes, it makes sense. As long as it can be stored somewhere where there is little chance of escape, it makes sense. 

At least it makes sense theoretically; it might be incredibly uneconomical. 

The way to think about CO2 is that there is a carbon cycle, and that you have natural sources and natural sinks of carbon. The ocean being one of those sinks. Right now there is too much of it and it's overwhelming the ability of natural sinks to absorb it, which is why atmospheric carbon is going up. Maybe you'll have a situation where if you take enough CO2 out of the air to match 20 ppm, the ocean gives some up and the net effect is only a 10 ppm reduction. I don't know and I'm just throwing out made-up numbers here. But if you take enough out to equal 20 ppm, the ocean will not just cough up 20 ppm worth of CO2 to keep the actual atmospheric level the same. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 12, 2023, 03:19:14 PM

If it rains anymore in Northern Ohio I'm looking up Blue Prints for an ARK. Cats & dogs yesterday,packs of wolves and prides of Lions today,jeebis

(https://em-content.zobj.net/source/telegram/358/cloud-with-rain_1f327-fe0f.webp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 13, 2023, 07:31:48 AM

We took a quick trip up into the mountains, planned to tour Gibb's Gardens and then Amicalola Falls SP, and did, but around 10 PM it was raining like Flint.  I thought it was a washout, but by noon the sky was clearing and we have a great time.  We had lunch at the State Park's lodge which has decent food and a great view.

(https://i.imgur.com/7ZaM3LD.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 13, 2023, 07:33:55 AM

We stayed one night in Blue Ridge which had been a half a horse town about to disappear and now had a neat collection of shops and restaurants etc.  We had lunch at a French bistro, owned by a French lady who quickly made friends with my wife.  Good food.

(https://i.imgur.com/5g1Wxem.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2023, 09:51:32 AM

Climate Scientist Blows The Lid Off The ‘Manufactured Consensus’ (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/climate-scientist-blows-the-lid-off-the-manufactured-consensus/ar-AA1fg06R?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a45c59495f6147fdb17cbb7979377ccf&ei=20)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 14, 2023, 11:01:46 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2023, 09:51:32 AM

Climate Scientist Blows The Lid Off The ‘Manufactured Consensus’ (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/climate-scientist-blows-the-lid-off-the-manufactured-consensus/ar-AA1fg06R?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a45c59495f6147fdb17cbb7979377ccf&ei=20)

Ive read quite a bit by Judith Curry

She is not held in very high reguard by the green folks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2023, 11:14:28 AM

She is disliked because she has credentials, her basic story is pretty much the same as mine, in part because I also read her stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on August 14, 2023, 11:15:20 AM

Science is not done by consensus and climate change was always about the redistribution of wealth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2023, 11:23:18 AM

When CC got political, all hope was lost basically.  Now in general, all liberals "believe" in it and most conservatives thing it's a fake issue and plot.

And hardly anyone is being honest about reality.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 14, 2023, 11:58:26 AM

As a conservative, I have always believed that are climate is changing, just as it has done since the Earth had a climate. I do believe that pollution is a contributing factor, but not to the degree that the CC alarmists believe it to be. And no matter what we as humans do, the Earth the climate will do what it will do and continue the cycle it has been on since the Earth existed. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2023, 12:00:40 PM

What is the "degree" which you think CC alarmists believe it to be?

I find folks on both sides misrepresent what the "scientists" are actually predicting about CC, things like how Manhattan will be underwater and Orlando will be a port city, etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2023, 12:40:36 PM

I tend to find the arguments that the planet is warming, that it's caused by greenhouse gases, and that man is responsible because of our addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere to be pretty solid. 

Whether that portends a climate "crisis" is a completely different matter. 

And it's one that climate scientists have difficulty answering. At best they can try to describe the effects of that warming on various areas of ecosystem. But whether something is a "crisis" depends on the potential economic and geopolitical effects of those effects. Which climate scientists aren't really equipped to answer. 

I worry that the argument is somewhat tilted due to two aspects:

• The "precautionary principle" idea that if we're causing the warming, we should stop, because the effects MIGHT be bad. 
• The emotional appeal amongst the "green" folks that anything natural is therefore good and anything artificial/man-made is therefore bad. So we should stop changing the environment because any man-made change is bad. 

It's difficult to argue with either, because the first one is more philosophical than empirical, and the second one is purely emotional IMHO. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2023, 12:46:56 PM

As noted, we have some folks on the "Left" claiming the world is ending "soon", in effect, and many on the Right claiming it's not a big deal at all. It's understandable that folks can get confused by it all.  If we go by the IPCC midpoint "projections", it's neither world ending nor not a big deal at all.

But that doesn't get clicks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 14, 2023, 01:10:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 14, 2023, 12:00:40 PM

What is the "degree" which you think CC alarmists believe it to be?

I find folks on both sides misrepresent what the "scientists" are actually predicting about CC, things like how Manhattan will be underwater and Orlando will be a port city, etc.

For that last 80 years, there have been CC alarmists proclaiming that if we don't to X now, the world will end in 10 years. And the problem I have is that the only solution they propose, is giving government more control over our lives. Sorry, I'm not buying it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2023, 01:16:41 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 14, 2023, 01:10:14 PM

For that last 80 years, there have been CC alarmists proclaiming that if we don't to X now, the world will end in 10 years. And the problem I have is that the only solution they propose, is giving government more control over our lives. Sorry, I'm not buying it.

And that's fair. That's a statement about alarmism, far less than it is about science. 

BTW, that's a VERY different statement than this:

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 14, 2023, 11:58:26 AM

As a conservative, I have always believed that are climate is changing, just as it has done since the Earth had a climate. I do believe that pollution is a contributing factor, but not to the degree that the CC alarmists believe it to be. And no matter what we as humans do, the Earth the climate will do what it will do and continue the cycle it has been on since the Earth existed.

Essentially the bolded statement, especially when bracketed by the statements before an after, suggest that you don't believe that man-made actions have significant effects on climate. That the various warming and cooling and other things being observed are mostly due to natural variance with only a small amount attributable to man. 

Do I have that right? 

BTW I'm not trying to argue* with the statement, just trying to determine if that's the statement. 

(* I have WAY too many pages already having argued that with 320. Don't want to rehash it.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 14, 2023, 01:57:04 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2023, 01:16:41 PM

(* I have WAY too many pages already having argued that with 320. Don't want to rehash it.)

120 ppm right back at ya

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2023, 02:10:38 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 14, 2023, 01:57:04 PM

120 ppm right back at ya

120 ppm of arsine gas kills you right quick.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 14, 2023, 02:27:05 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 14, 2023, 02:10:38 PM

120 ppm of arsine gas kills you right quick.

well that proves it case settled

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on August 15, 2023, 07:46:29 AM

Methane driven climate change

https://www.sciencealert.com/termination-zero-our-predicament-may-be-totally-unprecedented (https://www.sciencealert.com/termination-zero-our-predicament-may-be-totally-unprecedented)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2023, 07:48:20 AM

Florida oranges soon to soar in price, due to climate change and invasive insects (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/florida-oranges-soon-to-soar-in-price-due-to-climate-change-and-invasive-insects/ar-AA1fgRvO?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=33aa637948da4e30ae6350708f9dd5b5&ei=13)


I like grapefruit juice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2023, 07:55:44 AM

me too

with a splash of vodka

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2023, 07:57:36 AM

France has once again become the leader of electricity exports in Europe after having to import significant amounts of energy in 2022.

The surge had come as a result of the reopening of several nuclear power reactors, said journalist Olivier Poncelet, who reported the figures from analysts EnAppSys.

“At the beginning of the year, EDF [Electricité de France] restarted several reactors that had been shut down for maintenance. Because these plants were shut down in 2022, France had to import energy,” he said.

“This year, however, 73% of the nuclear fleet was operating by February.”

It meant that for the first half of 2023 France exported 17.6 terawatt hours (TWh). The main clients for French energy are the UK and Italy. Between them, they bought enough power for 450,000 homes between January and June.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/France-returns-to-being-top-electricity-exporter-in-Europe (https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/France-returns-to-being-top-electricity-exporter-in-Europe)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2023, 08:06:43 AM

We should be doing that too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2023, 09:27:11 AM

It's Been Weeks Since The Atlantic Had A Named Storm, But 88% Of The Season Still Remains (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/it-s-been-weeks-since-the-atlantic-had-a-named-storm-but-88-of-the-season-still-remains/ar-AA1fiF5V?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c9df355fef904c95be0dab0bfaf636fd&ei=8)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 11:22:13 AM

This highlights the issue for me with the constant climate alarmists who claim every bad weather event is due to CC.  Then you have their predictions failing to come to pass over time, routinely, and it makes others think the whole notion is simply wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2023, 11:23:44 AM

It's August 15 and it's hot in Florida?

No shit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 15, 2023, 11:23:55 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2023, 01:16:41 PM

And that's fair. That's a statement about alarmism, far less than it is about science.

BTW, that's a VERY different statement than this:

Essentially the bolded statement, especially when bracketed by the statements before an after, suggest that you don't believe that man-made actions have significant effects on climate. That the various warming and cooling and other things being observed are mostly due to natural variance with only a small amount attributable to man.

Do I have that right?

BTW I'm not trying to argue* with the statement, just trying to determine if that's the statement.

(* I have WAY too many pages already having argued that with 320. Don't want to rehash it.)

Yes, that is what I meant. 

From what I have seen, read, experienced, the climate goes through cyclical changes. Being as we humans only experience the climate for about 70-80 years, on average, we tend to believe that anytime the weather is different than what we believe to be normal, some people believe that it is evidence that the climate is changing in profound ways. 

That would be fine and dandy except that people in positions of power and influence (government, media) have used these fears to prop themselves up with even more power and influence by appealing to the fears of those that fail to understand what actually drives the climate, namely that large orange orb that we see during daylight hours. They would have people believe that if we don't panic and begin spending tax dollars to do X or Y or stop people from doing X or Y, we will all die in X number of years. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 11:31:38 AM

No human could really have any sense that our climate is changing.  And that's part of the problem.  Let's presume the models/records are about right and we have warmed 1.1°C and would warm some more.  Stipulate that.  None of us would detect that with any confidence without rather precise measurements and records.  We might think it's somewhat warmer than I recall as a kid, maybe, or that the local glacier has receded.  I'm guess something like 3°C warming in 50 years would be noticeable to most of us, if we lived in the same area over that time.

Does anyone here think their local climate has warmed in their life time?  I lived here in the 60s and I THINK maybe we had more snow back then, maybe.  I've been here five years and we've had one "real" snow and a few where the ground was barely covered.  And maybe my memory is faulty.  We used to have bad ice storms fairly often.

Is summer hotter here?  I don't think so, it's quite humid today though, 65% RH and 87°F, which is worse than "typical" (humidity).

I know the Swiss et al. point to glacial recessions as evidence, and maybe that would be a sign to those living there, it can also reflect a drought.  Otherwise, we have to rely on various measurements of this and that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 15, 2023, 11:42:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 11:31:38 AM

No human could really have any sense that our climate is changing.  And that's part of the problem.  Let's presume the models/records are about right and we have warmed 1.1°C and would warm some more.  Stipulate that.  None of us would detect that with any confidence without rather precise measurements and records.  We might think it's somewhat warmer than I recall as a kid, maybe, or that the local glacier has receded.  I'm guess something like 3°C warming in 50 years would be noticeable to most of us, if we lived in the same area over that time.

Does anyone here think their local climate has warmed in their life time?  I lived here in the 60s and I THINK maybe we had more snow back then, maybe.  I've been here five years and we've had one "real" snow and a few where the ground was barely covered.  And maybe my memory is faulty.  We used to have bad ice storms fairly often.

Is summer hotter here?  I don't think so, it's quite humid today though, 65% RH and 87°F, which is worse than "typical" (humidity).

I know the Swiss et al. point to glacial recessions as evidence, and maybe that would be a sign to those living there, it can also reflect a drought.  Otherwise, we have to rely on various measurements of this and that.

I know that were I live now, we get less snow than we did 30 years ago. These past few winters, we have barely had enough to warrant snow plows more than a handful of days per season. I also know people that use this a proof that the climate is changing and that if we don't give up fossil fuels, meat, etc, we are all going to die in the next X number of years. 

That was my point.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 11:52:50 AM

Yeah, I wonder if anyone would notice if we had no idea about climate change.  Once a person reads whatever about CC, they are biased in their personal reflections.

And the extreme alarmists are harming their case a lot in my view.

And then there is the very obvious fact that "we" are not going to do much of anything real to fight CC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 15, 2023, 01:25:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 11:22:13 AM

This highlights the issue for me with the constant climate alarmists who claim every bad weather event is due to CC.  Then you have their predictions failing to come to pass over time, routinely, and it makes others think the whole notion is simply wrong.

Yeah, agreed. Weather is difficult to predict, and climate change's effect on weather equally so.

What also gets me is when they use dollar value damage as a measuring stick for the effect of extreme weather events. For example, we have drought and wildfires here regularly in CA. But we also are strapped for land to expand in the LA basin, and that means we're pushing houses closer and closer to the areas where the wildfires burn, and building nice expensive houses there too (on top of the housing price expansion). So OF COURSE extreme weather events are going to cause more monetary damage. That's just basic logic!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 15, 2023, 01:31:02 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 15, 2023, 11:42:43 AM

I know that were I live now, we get less snow than we did 30 years ago. These past few winters, we have barely had enough to warrant snow plows more than a handful of days per season. I also know people that use this a proof that the climate is changing and that if we don't give up fossil fuels, meat, etc, we are all going to die in the next X number of years.

That was my point. 

And a lot people don't understand that the effects of climate change are highly dependent on where you live. 

Stipulate for a second that global warming is causing droughts here in the Southwest where I live. And that those droughts are taking places which are already hot (Phoenix/Vegas) or already temperate with hot summers (SoCal) and making them hotter. And also making them more dangerous to live due to wildfires, and more difficult to feed with adequate water supplies due to drought causing less availability of Colorado River water. All of those things are bad, IMHO, for people living in the Southwest. 

Now, look at a place like the Midwest. A place which, quite frankly, sucks balls for many months of the year. You have frigid winter, stormy spring, muggy hot summer, and quite wonderful fall. Now you change it and make winter just a little more temperate, probably with very little change to any of the other seasons. I think a lot of Midwesterners welcome that. 

Climate change is likely to be bad for some people. It's also likely to be good for others. As long as there isn't a catastrophic tipping point or positive feedback loop that drastically alters the ecosystem, the individual effects, good or bad, are going to be local in nature. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2023, 08:20:10 AM

I like it 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

We could be 16 years into a methane-fueled 'termination' event significant enough to end an ice age (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/we-could-be-16-years-into-a-methane-fueled-termination-event-significant-enough-to-end-an-ice-age/ar-AA1flo3y?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e6a048253f9b442b82df629ceb5c76fc&ei=8)


Get rid of the wetlands?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2023, 09:19:45 AM

That is a bit scary, to me.  I had read that melting of permafrost could release a lot of methane suddenly and that would be bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 09:35:31 AM

VERY bad.

And there is nothing we can do about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2023, 09:40:04 AM

Looking at this I would say there was a decrease in the rate of increase 1992-2007 that is unexplained.  Before that, the rate of increase was the same as or steeper than today's.  

(https://i.imgur.com/fSbrHCL.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2023, 09:41:20 AM

Methane and climate change – Global Methane Tracker 2022 – Analysis - IEA (https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/methane-and-climate-change)

Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the industrial revolution, and rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions are key to limit near-term warming and improve air quality.

Two key characteristics determine the impact of different greenhouse gases on the climate: the length of time they remain in the atmosphere and their ability to absorb energy. Methane has a much shorter atmospheric lifetime than carbon dioxide (CO₂) – around 12 years compared with centuries – but absorbs much more energy while it exists in the atmosphere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 10:28:42 AM

Breaking Weather News | FOX Weather Home of America's Weather Team (https://www.foxweather.com/)

Here we go.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2023, 11:08:08 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 10:28:42 AM

Breaking Weather News | FOX Weather Home of America's Weather Team (https://www.foxweather.com/)

Here we go.

Definitely wouldn't mind seeing that one in the Gulf drift up into Texas as a tropical storm and dump about 20" of rain all over the state.  As long as no damaging winds of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 11:10:07 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 16, 2023, 11:08:08 AM

Definitely wouldn't mind seeing that one in the Gulf drift up into Texas as a tropical storm and dump about 20" of rain all over the state.  As long as no damaging winds of course.

I'm more concerned with storm surge, to be honest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2023, 11:25:17 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 11:10:07 AM

I'm more concerned with storm surge, to be honest.

Texas coast is pretty well protected against that in most spots.  A very long string of barrier islands cover most of the state coastline.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 11:28:27 AM

Depends on the landing spot, strength and size of the storm, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2023, 11:41:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 11:28:27 AM

Depends on the landing spot, strength and size of the storm, of course.

Suffice to say, in Texas, high winds tend to be more of a problem with hurricanes, than do storm surges.  The "Big One" in Galveston 1900 being an exception.

And sure, people build up too much on the barrier islands and then get knocked down when a storm comes through, but I mean, it's a barrier island.  Everyone should understand exactly what that implies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 11:43:06 AM

Yep, Fort Myers Beach is a barrier island. It's not recognizable now and it will never be what it was.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2023, 11:47:57 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 11:43:06 AM

Yep, Fort Myers Beach is a barrier island. It's not recognizable now and it will never be what it was.

Yeah it's sad but also frustrating at the same time.

There are ways to build on barrier islands that can minimize the damage.  But after a decade or two without a major storm, everyone forgets, and goes back to doing stupid things.  What I don't understand is why insurance companies are even bothering to cover them?  Or maybe they're not?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2023, 12:13:16 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 16, 2023, 11:41:05 AM

Suffice to say, in Texas, high winds tend to be more of a problem with hurricanes, than do storm surges.  The "Big One" in Galveston 1900 being an exception.

And sure, people build up too much on the barrier islands and then get knocked down when a storm comes through, but I mean, it's a barrier island.  Everyone should understand exactly what that implies.

My family went through Carla in 1961

That storm had a 17 foot tidal surge

Our house was 14 feet above sea level so we had water doorknob high in our home

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 16, 2023, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 16, 2023, 11:47:57 AM

Yeah it's sad but also frustrating at the same time.

There are ways to build on barrier islands that can minimize the damage.  But after a decade or two without a major storm, everyone forgets, and goes back to doing stupid things.  What I don't understand is why insurance companies are even bothering to cover them?  Or maybe they're not?

In many cases now- they are not.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 12:27:58 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 16, 2023, 12:17:24 PM

In many cases now- they are not. 

Correct.

Unless you built to a 2' freeboard above the projected 100-year event, you can forget insurance. And new construction is not allowed without that freeboard.

So now, Fort Myers Beach is going to be massive condo towers with parking on the first level (which can be below freeboard), or huge houses on stilts.

It will never be the same. All of those old buildings are either gone or not habitable. Developers are coming in with huge $$$ and scooping up the land.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 03:32:57 PM

This one could get interesting for California.

(https://i.imgur.com/sGyLsla.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/UXMyqT4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 16, 2023, 03:36:25 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 03:32:57 PM

This one could get interesting for California.

(https://i.imgur.com/sGyLsla.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/UXMyqT4.png)

Better wait until Monday. I'm playing golf on Sunday!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 04:22:03 PM

From what I'm seeing, it's probably gonna be a little windy and a big rainmaker for CA and maybe even AZ and NV.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 16, 2023, 04:44:43 PM

Weather.com has the rain starting Sunday during the day... Ugh. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2023, 04:50:42 PM

State of the climate – summer 2023 | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/08/14/state-of-the-climate-summer-2023/#more-30374)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2023, 05:26:24 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2023, 04:22:03 PM

From what I'm seeing, it's probably gonna be a little windy and a big rainmaker for CA and maybe even AZ and NV.

fill up a couple reservoirs and soak down some forests
Climate change solved

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2023, 09:28:20 PM

the 2023-2024 Snow Forecast

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/362924018_18388937110026024_918278867288800679_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=QZm0qYQk-YIAX_JwUwY&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfA2g17tGNYa4H2nZmN-Vv1l18qzm4vQQRPVV16U2GpG7w&oe=64E338D1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2023, 09:40:34 PM

Map predicting above-average snowfall was created as satire in 2014 | Fact check

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2023, 09:07:23 AM

The Triad would be home to North Carolina’s first new nuclear power plant in more than 35 years under a proposal filed with state regulators Tuesday.

Duke Energy is asking the N.C. Utilities Commission to sign off on a plan to add reactors at its Belews Creek Steam Station in Stokes County. A similar system would be added at a second site still to be determined.

Each nuclear facility would be capable of powering nearly a quarter-million homes at one time, the company said.

The last nuclear facility to come online in North Carolina was Duke’s Harris Plant in Wake County in 1987.

Charlotte-based Duke’s Belews Creek request is part of a newly filed update to its state-mandated plan to reduce climate-impacting pollution in electricity production 70% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels and reach “carbon-neutral” status by the middle of the century.

https://journalnow.com/news/duke-energy-wants-to-build-nuclear-power-plant-at-belews-creek/article_940e04ec-3bb4-11ee-bbfc-d3ee24db0f50.html (https://journalnow.com/news/duke-energy-wants-to-build-nuclear-power-plant-at-belews-creek/article_940e04ec-3bb4-11ee-bbfc-d3ee24db0f50.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2023, 09:38:24 AM

In addition to 600 megawatts of new nuclear power, Duke proposes adding:

• 6,000 megawatts of new solar by 2031.
• 2,700 megawatts of battery storage by 2031.
• 5,800 megawatts of natural gas capacity that can be transitioned to emission-free hydrogen by 2032.
• 1,200 megawatts of onshore wind by 2033.
• 1,600 of offshore wind in 2033 or later
• 1,700 of stored hydro-electric energy by 2034.

Duke’s strategy of using natural gas to help replace coal capacity until more emissions-free generation comes online continues to draw criticism from environmental advocates.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2023, 10:01:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2023, 09:38:24 AM

Duke’s strategy of using natural gas to help replace coal capacity until more emissions-free generation comes online continues to draw criticism from environmental advocates.

F them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2023, 10:07:57 AM

yup, need more storage capacity
yup, natural gas is still bad, but better than coal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 17, 2023, 10:19:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2023, 09:38:24 AM

Duke’s strategy of using natural gas to help replace coal capacity until more emissions-free generation comes online continues to draw criticism from environmental advocates.

i.e. those that have coin in what they are parroting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2023, 10:26:42 AM

Progress is being made, and I'm all for progress so long as it doesn't weaken our country.

I'm against offshore wind for many reasons. 

I'm all for solar power so long as the panels are produced in the USA.

I'm all-in in on going to nuclear power as a main source.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2023, 10:29:39 AM

should almost everything be produced in the USA or is there something special about solar panels?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 17, 2023, 10:48:36 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2023, 10:26:42 AM

Progress is being made, and I'm all for progress so long as it doesn't weaken our country.

I'm against offshore wind for many reasons.

I'm all for solar power so long as the panels are produced in the USA.

I'm all-in in on going to nuclear power as a main source.

This should be hung in the Capitol and every member of congress  made to understand. Provided they can usher out the shills/lobbyists,shooting them is my preferred method but what ever works that may be less messy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2023, 10:49:49 AM

If we're going to heavily rely on solar panels, shouldn't they be made by a trustworthy source?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 17, 2023, 10:50:27 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2023, 10:29:39 AM

should almost everything be produced in the USA or is there something special about solar panels?

Maybe he meant as long as they aren't made in China who has used their wealth to buy the US Corporates.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2023, 10:51:34 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2023, 10:49:49 AM

If we're going to heavily rely on solar panels, shouldn't they be made by a trustworthy source?

but that can be said about most everything
just wondered if you were singling out solar

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2023, 10:57:21 AM

As it relates to energy production.

I don't want China to build our nuke plants either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 17, 2023, 11:19:43 AM

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.kinja-img.com%2Fgawker-media%2Fimage%2Fupload%2Fs--vyyWRkow--%2F1401537538732057519.gif&hash=7124403df0a87271b6a5b3e9974a0b3e)               

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2023, 01:02:25 PM

The massive battery notion isn't there yet, at all, in my view, from what I can tell.  Stored hydro is a nice concept and will work in certain places, there is one not far from me.   And to store energy, you have to make it first, and with solar you are making it in summer when demand is highest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2023, 01:46:49 PM

As a country, we are probably closer to being fully nuclear than we are to "green" energy.

This is just silly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2023, 01:54:30 PM

Electricity from "renewables" in the US is about the same as from nuclear (counting hydro as the former).  The simple ratios are 20% coal, 20% nuclear, 20% renewable, and 40% NG in very round numbers.  The issues with nuclear are well known, build time, cost overruns, etc.  I have some hope for small modular reactors in time.  maybe.

I tend to doubt another large nuclear power reactor gets built, Vogtle 4 may be the last one.

July 31, 2023. Georgia Power declared today that Plant Vogtle Unit 3 has entered commercial operation and is now serving customers and the State of Georgia.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 17, 2023, 05:26:49 PM

The company I work for just announced a few months ago they are going to install a small modular nuclear reactor at one of our sites in S Texas.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2023, 05:42:05 PM

Maybe someday I hope 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2023, 06:28:53 AM

More bombs coming out of Africa. 

(https://i.imgur.com/o1mpRL9.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2023, 10:42:58 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2023, 06:28:53 AM

More bombs coming out of Africa.

(https://i.imgur.com/o1mpRL9.jpg)

looks like they are turning north

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2023, 12:08:10 PM

Bottom line.  The recent warming in spring/summer 2023 is associated with a spike in the net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere.  This spike reflects a combination of an increase in incoming shortwave, a decrease in high-level cloudiness, impact of reduced ship sulfate aerosols, reduced snow/ice extent, and the Hunga Tonga eruption.  The main significance of the change in ship fuel aerosol is the regional variations in the aerosol forcing (not so much the impact on global or even hemispheric mean temperature). The net global impact of Hunga-Tonga on the global radiation balance seems to be close to zero.  It will certainly be interesting to see what the TOA radiative fluxes look for June and July.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2023, 12:21:49 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 18, 2023, 10:42:58 AM

looks like they are turning north

The spaghetti models the news was showing last evening said otherwise.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2023, 12:33:49 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2023, 12:21:49 PM

The spaghetti models the news was showing last evening said otherwise.

There are 4 Tropical Disturbances

3 are heading more northward every day

the 4th one shows hitting the gulf of mexico

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2023, 01:37:12 PM

The midlatitude warming is causing a decrease in the meridional (south to north) heat transport (atmospheric and oceanic) and contributing to a latitudinal shift in the intertropical convergence zone.  This may be reflected in the meridional circulation modes (PMM, AMM).

Distorted warming in colder drier areas of the north Atlantic disturbs the vertical velocity patterns, leading to the expansion of the Hadley Cell.  Hadley Cells are the low-latitude overturning circulations that have air rising near the equator and air sinking at roughly 30° latitude, with the cells migrating northward and southward with the sun’s annual cycle.  Numerous studies have suggested that the sinking branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation and the associated subtropical dry zones have shifted poleward. Current understanding is that most of the recent Northern Hemisphere Hadley Cell widening is consistent with natural variability.
The strong warming in midlatitude oceans seen in summer 2023, partially in response to elimination of the ship fuel sulfates, is supporting the expansion northward of the Hadley Cell.  The Hadley Cell expansion is consistent with the Bermuda High being fairly far north this year, with intensified dry air over the subtropical oceans.  Note: El Nino is typically associated with a contraction of the latitudinal extent of the Hadley Cell; that is not what we are seeing this year in the Atlantic.

A recent study has linked a poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation to Hadley Cell expansion.  Another study cites an upper-level weakening of the rising branch of the Hadley circulation in the deep tropics, possibly induced by the increased vertical stability with warmer SSTs, which has likely suppressed the low-latitude tropical cyclone genesis in most ocean basins.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 18, 2023, 02:21:48 PM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1692493842665078919

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2023, 04:47:28 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/kxD9UG4.png)

I was near there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 18, 2023, 10:42:58 PM

that was your choice

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 19, 2023, 02:50:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 18, 2023, 04:47:28 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/kxD9UG4.png)

I was near there.

It's that hot in my car everyday when I leave work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2023, 06:43:49 AM

Maybe so, and probably hotter still inside a car in that location.  We were near there in February, even stopped in Fujairah, which had little of any note to see.  Dubai and Abu Dhabi are impressive in their own rights.  We later stopped in Oman but there was some mixup and they weren't letting folks off the dock for a long time, so we reboarded.  That was a mess.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2023, 12:23:29 PM

Everyone around here is losing their goddamned minds over Tropical Storm Hilary. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 19, 2023, 12:27:10 PM

Are they checking their emails about it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2023, 12:33:02 PM

I’m tired of hearing about the emails 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2023, 12:42:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 19, 2023, 12:33:02 PM

I’m tired of hearing about the emails

No shit.

They're all gone anyway, plus (most of) California thinks they never existed in the first place.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2023, 12:45:54 PM

Could not resist...  :57:

Deaths Caused By Hurricane Hilary To Be Labeled Suicides | Babylon Bee (https://babylonbee.com/news/deaths-caused-by-hurricane-hilary-to-be-labeled-suicides?utm_source=The Babylon Bee)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2023, 02:51:43 PM

Another one coming out of Africa. Enough already.

(https://i.imgur.com/CvTcUHd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 19, 2023, 03:04:08 PM

Out of Africa model?
(https://i.imgur.com/zNa7u6T.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2023, 08:34:21 PM

youse guys seem to be interested in this stuff

I can just hope it brings rain to NW Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 09:18:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 19, 2023, 08:34:21 PM

youse guys seem to be interested in this stuff

I can just hope it brings rain to NW Iowa

I'm interested given that my house was in the eye of the worst hurricane to ever hit Florida.

California's about to get a little windy and very wet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 09:20:37 AM

San Diego has a lot of hills that appear to be mostly sand.  Erosion in this sort of rain could be a huge issue.  There isn't a lot of foliage on those hillsides.

They get some rain, but not in torrents.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 09:36:42 AM

Yeah, we're gonna have some serious flooding. Weather report shows ~1.5" of rain over a 5 hour period this afternoon. That's... A lot for here.

I'm up a bit in elevation so I'm not worried about any flooding, thankfully. And we have nowhere to go today, so just gonna hang out. Doesn't look like the wind will be enough here to be worth worrying about. 

Biggest concern I have is power. I won't be shocked at all to have the power go out, but I don't want it to be a long enough outage that it impacts the fridge/freezer(s). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 09:40:02 AM

If you have an ice maker, take out some ice now and put it in a bowl in the fridge part, and hope you get more ice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 09:42:26 AM

San Diego, CA Weather Forecast and Conditions - The Weather Channel | Weather.com (https://weather.com/weather/today/l/ad4658f144a95c9796c19e96529766a9fb6f00cb1ca43f65ff665704f363b39b)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 09:45:34 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 09:36:42 AM

Yeah, we're gonna have some serious flooding. Weather report shows ~1.5" of rain over a 5 hour period this afternoon. That's... A lot for here.

I'm up a bit in elevation so I'm not worried about any flooding, thankfully. And we have nowhere to go today, so just gonna hang out. Doesn't look like the wind will be enough here to be worth worrying about.

Biggest concern I have is power. I won't be shocked at all to have the power go out, but I don't want it to be a long enough outage that it impacts the fridge/freezer(s).

Find the nearest dry ice store. Saved me back in 2011 when we had no power for 7 days back up North after a Derecho blasted us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 11:07:23 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/NsSkKgi.png)

Emily is not a thread to the US at all. Seems to be a pattern this year with all of these storms turning North. I'll take that. 6 is gonna peter out today.

(https://i.imgur.com/cw18wnz.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 11:28:14 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/EZE1dU1.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 11:31:44 AM

How come most of these storms this year are turning North? Is this some anomaly?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 11:33:38 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 11:31:44 AM

How come most of these storms this year are turning North? Is this some anomaly?

The Big Guy is a Texan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 11:34:48 AM

I cited an article discussing the new use of low sulfur fuel in shipping now and its impact on climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 11:35:35 AM

Definitely wouldn't mind a mild tropical storm system developing in the gulf and cruising through Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 11:37:28 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 11:35:35 AM

Definitely wouldn't mind a mild tropical storm system developing in the gulf and cruising through Texas.

Ive placed your order

Hes working on it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 11:39:56 AM

Annual averages for total precipitation by city

[th]Days[/th] [th]City[/th] [th]Inches[/th] [th]Milli­metres[/th]
116	Atlanta, Georgia	50.4	1281
86	Austin, Texas	36.3	921
121	Baltimore, Maryland	45.0	1143
118	Birmingham, Alabama	56.6	1438
128	Boston, Massachusetts	43.6	1107
166	Buffalo, New York	40.7	1033
112	Charlotte, North Carolina	43.6	1107
127	Chicago, Illinois	40.9	1038
136	Cincinnati, Ohio	45.3	1150
159	Cleveland, Ohio	41.0	1042
141	Columbus, Ohio	41.6	1056
82	Dallas, Texas	38.3	973
84	Denver, Colorado	15.4	390
136	Detroit, Michigan	34.3	872
47	Fresno, California	11.0	279
149	Grand Rapids, Michigan	39.4	1001
130	Hartford, Connecticut	47.1	1195
89	Honolulu, Hawaii	16.4	417
107	Houston, Texas	55.6	1413

128Indianapolis, Indiana43.61108120Jacksonville, Florida47.61209104Kansas City, Missouri39.399826Las Vegas, Nevada4.210634Los Angeles, California14.3362125Louisville, Kentucky48.31228111Memphis, Tennessee54.91395141Miami, Florida67.41712126Milwaukee, Wisconsin34.6878119Minneapolis, Minnesota31.6803123Nashville, Tennessee50.51283115New Orleans, Louisiana63.41609125New York, New York49.5125883Oklahoma City, Oklahoma36.4924130Orlando, Florida51.51307121Philadelphia, Pennsylvania44.1112033Phoenix, Arizona7.2183154Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania39.61006

[th]Days[/th] [th]City[/th] [th]Inches[/th] [th]Milli­metres[/th]
163	Portland, Oregon	43.7	1111
127	Providence, Rhode Island	47.5	1208
118	Raleigh, North Carolina	46.1	1170
119	Richmond, Virginia	45.5	1156
35	Riverside, California	9.4	239
168	Rochester, New York	35.1	891
61	Sacramento, California	19.2	488
92	Salt Lake City, Utah	15.5	394
81	San Antonio, Texas	32.4	822
40	San Diego, California	9.8	249
71	San Francisco, California	22.9	581
59	San Jose, California	13.5	342
156	Seattle, Washington	39.3	999
114	St. Louis, Missouri	41.7	1059
108	Tampa, Florida	49.5	1257
47	Tucson, Arizona	10.6	269
94	Tulsa, Oklahoma	41.0	1040
118	Virginia Beach, Virginia	49.2	1249
118	Washington, DC	41.8	1062

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 01:28:15 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 11:37:28 AM

Ive placed your order

Hes working on it

It's in my back yard right now.

Sending it your way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 20, 2023, 02:49:53 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 11:31:44 AM

How come most of these storms this year are turning North? Is this some anomaly?

Gonna blow some recruits this way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 20, 2023, 02:52:39 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 11:33:38 AM

The Big Guy is a Texan

Um no he'd rent out Texas and live in Hell 

>:(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 02:53:29 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 11:34:48 AM

I cited an article discussing the new use of low sulfur fuel in shipping now and its impact on climate.

Yeah, I find it an interesting thing. Clean up pollution from fuel, and inadvertently make (short term) temperatures worse.

I mentioned that Neal Stephenson novel, Termination Shock. Basically involved a rich Texas oilman in post global warming Houston shooting sulfur dioxide nto the stratosphere as a geoengineering project to reduce temps. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 03:13:21 PM

The summer rains here often come around 5 PM and last 30 minutes.  That works for me, usually.  Folks are amazed we get more inches of rain than Seattle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 06:09:22 PM

This apocalypse has not lived up to its billing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 06:23:24 PM

They never do

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 06:55:45 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 06:09:22 PM

This apocalypse has not lived up to its billing.

How was it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 20, 2023, 07:32:09 PM

Pretty windy in Phx.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 08:02:18 PM

It looks like San Diego is taking quite a hit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 08:03:10 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 06:09:22 PM

This apocalypse has not lived up to its billing.

arent you in the San Francisco area

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 08:48:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2023, 06:55:45 PM

How was it?

Light to medium rain. Occasionally heavy. Wind just moderate. Nothing crazy so far. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 08:03:10 PM

arent you in the San Francisco area

Orange County. Between LA and San Diego. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 08:53:18 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2023, 08:48:36 PM

Light to medium rain. Occasionally heavy. Wind just moderate. Nothing crazy so far.



Orange County. Between LA and San Diego.

glad to hear it 

sounds like it would make utee happy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 08:57:00 PM

Is the Benihana by John Wayne still there?  I was an absolute staple there from June 1995 through August 1996.  The karaoke regulars loved me, lots of Japanese businessmen so I'd always sing Frank Sinatra and Elvis for them.  It was lit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 08:57:53 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 08:53:18 PM

glad to hear it

sounds like it would make utee happy

Zero measurable rain at my house since June 15th. So... yeah.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2023, 08:59:56 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 08:57:53 PM

Zero measurable rain at my house since June 15th. So... yeah.

rain? whats rain?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 09:27:53 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 06:23:24 PM

They never do

I beg to differ.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 09:30:54 AM

Lots of crap out there right now. 3 named storms at one time. Weird. Shouldn't amount to much according to the NHC.

(https://i.imgur.com/syKSpcM.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2023, 09:42:20 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2023, 08:57:00 PM

Is the Benihana by John Wayne still there?  I was an absolute staple there from June 1995 through August 1996.  The karaoke regulars loved me, lots of Japanese businessmen so I'd always sing Frank Sinatra and Elvis for them.  It was lit.

Yeah, looks like it's still there. Had to look it up. I've only been there once, probably about a decade ago. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 10:49:58 AM

Record Report (weather.gov) (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=rerlox)

Lots of records shattered in an around LA yesterday.

No mention of San Diego, which seems odd. Maybe they were too close to the eye??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2023, 11:01:52 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 09:27:53 AM

I beg to differ.

You live in Florida.  Your storm wasn't The Apocalypse.  It was "Florida weather."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2023, 11:07:04 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 10:49:58 AM

Record Report (weather.gov) (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=rerlox)

Lots of records shattered in an around LA yesterday.

No mention of San Diego, which seems odd. Maybe they were too close to the eye??

Different report.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=rersgx

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 11:09:26 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 21, 2023, 11:01:52 AM

You live in Florida.  Your storm wasn't The Apocalypse.  It was "Florida weather."

Nah. That was a record hurricane. Nowhere near recovered yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2023, 11:28:03 AM

global warming heat this summer finally getting to the Midwest

103 tomorrow and 105 Wednesday - too hot to golf in NW Iowa
Don't think that will break any records

Fortunately, I'm the the Black Hills of Western South Dakota this week.

10 degrees cooler - 6,000 feet so much less humidity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2023, 11:28:57 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 10:49:58 AM

Record Report (weather.gov) (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=rerlox)

Lots of records shattered in an around LA yesterday.

No mention of San Diego, which seems odd. Maybe they were too close to the eye??

well, the drought had them praying for rain...

God just helping out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2023, 11:46:15 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2023, 11:28:57 AM

well, the drought had them praying for rain...

God just helping out.

Either him or Xzibit


(https://i.imgur.com/T728MRc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 12:35:00 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/KC7rtMk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 12:37:16 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 01:28:15 PM

It's in my back yard right now.

Sending it your way.

Not accurate enough to help out Houston or Austin very much. Sorry guys.


(https://i.imgur.com/xKL8Pdw.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2023, 01:05:19 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 12:37:16 PM

Not accurate enough to help out Houston or Austin very much. Sorry guys.


(https://i.imgur.com/xKL8Pdw.png)

South Texas needs rain too, but yeah, I predict we will get exactly zero precipitation out of this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2023, 01:09:51 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/xz1SetR.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2023, 01:10:12 PM

Polluting while waiting 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 01:18:46 PM

Nice cars.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2023, 01:37:19 PM

Imagine... Driving your Maserati to the smog check in the expectation that you'll have the hottest ride there and then...

...that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2023, 02:04:41 PM

My GTI was a bit out of its league with those, and there was a BMW X5 behind me.  The good news is the Kroger there has a machine that prints out registation and tag decal.  I had to keep the car running for the AC, it's a bit hot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 02:16:51 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2023, 01:37:19 PM

Imagine... Driving your Maserati to the smog check in the expectation that you'll have the hottest ride there and then...

...that.

Heh. I was thinking the same thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 02:20:20 PM

Jeb Bush did away with emissions testing in Florida. Too expensive ($50Mil/year) and the State met all Federal clean air standards.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2023, 03:12:12 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 01:18:46 PM

Nice cars.

nice shitter


might be hot in there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 08:20:57 AM

What it takes to relocate a town facing sea level rise (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 08:26:32 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 21, 2023, 01:05:19 PM

South Texas needs rain too, but yeah, I predict we will get exactly zero precipitation out of this.

Looks like Houston might get a little something from the outer bands of Harold. Maybe even San Antonio.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 08:39:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 08:20:57 AM

What it takes to relocate a town facing sea level rise (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html)

takes time and money
like almost everything
the article focuses on money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 10:02:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 08:20:57 AM

What it takes to relocate a town facing sea level rise (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html)

That's an eye-opener for sure.

I wonder why a new town though. Is it strictly a tribal thing?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 10:04:55 AM

planning for the next century

School and government buildings

Government $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 22, 2023, 10:09:13 AM

Sweet Jesus. Rain. Not a lot, but it’s coming through in bands. 

50 miles south of Houston. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 10:09:49 AM

Well, sea level rise is driving this, the existing house is worthless as nobody will buy it.

Very tough to have to start over with no equity at all.

There is an existing program through FEMA for some of this. It is administered through the county. I worked on a project some time ago where we'd go out and collect elevation information on properties prone to flooding.

The county would make the owner a FEMA-backed offer on the house so they could knock it down. Most of the time the owners took it and ran.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 10:18:29 AM

Highlights. Global average sea level has risen 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high—97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels.

I'm surprised that less than a foot means whole towns are in trouble.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 10:21:02 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 10:18:29 AM

Highlights. Global average sea level has risen 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high—97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels.

I'm surprised that less than a foot means whole towns are in trouble.

The alarmist who wrote the article said 2-3 more feet by 2100.

I have a hard time believing that number.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 10:24:14 AM

The projections are in the 2-3 feet range, by 2100, and maybe I buy that, as a projection.  I certainly hope it's less.  I just wonder what sort of human habitation would have been built where less than a foot makes it awful.

If you're that close to sea level, you'd be getting swamped with even moderate storms anyway, without any CC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 11:28:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 10:18:29 AM

Highlights. Global average sea level has risen 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high—97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels.

I'm surprised that less than a foot means whole towns are in trouble.

I'm guessing the government buildings in that town were due for an upgrade.
Many reservations have these needs.
the article says this particular street has been flooding for some time.
I'd guess this one street or two are really in trouble presently.
But, looking to the future, it's wise to get started while there's government funds floating around, like COVID funds.

Probably shouldn't have built that street there in the first place.
Right, Badge?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 11:32:22 AM

Right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 11:40:19 AM

Interesting read. Well, at least for me. And maybe @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) since he did some survey work in the past.

Monuments Going Up in Smoke - The American Surveyor (amerisurv.com) (https://amerisurv.com/2023/08/12/monuments-going-up-in-smoke/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&utm_campaign=newsletter)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 11:43:53 AM

I've done some survey work in the past

81-1985

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 11:49:06 AM

You want a job?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 12:17:50 PM

I can appreciate that some villages were built in an area we now understand was too low.  And some places like New Orleans were built on areas that have sunk because of lack of flooding.  Maybe they were OK back in the day, but now ... not.

I've seen beach cottages built in the wrong place and the island basically shifts south leaving them in the water.

Cincinnati had some bad floods, the city sprung up on a flat spot between hills and a river, what now is called the Mill Creek Valley, the Mill Creek also floods, still.  There is even one dam on it, making a nice lake, for us anyway.  When the Ohio floods, the Mill Creek is dammed near the river and then pumped over said dam.  They won't be moving Cincy, or NO, any time soon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on August 22, 2023, 12:26:16 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 11:40:19 AM

Interesting read. Well, at least for me. And maybe @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) since he did some survey work in the past.

Monuments Going Up in Smoke - The American Surveyor (amerisurv.com) (https://amerisurv.com/2023/08/12/monuments-going-up-in-smoke/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&utm_campaign=newsletter)

Interesting indeed. This sort of thing definitely qualifies as a critical thing that no one thinks of until way down the line.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 12:47:25 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 11:49:06 AM

You want a job?

no, thank you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 01:17:42 PM

Another garbage "editorial" with hand waving, stay tuned for a lot more.

We need better strategies for the approaching climate breaking point  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4162840-we-need-better-strategies-for-the-approaching-climate-breaking-point/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 22, 2023, 01:58:15 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 01:17:42 PM

Another garbage "editorial" with hand waving, stay tuned for a lot more.

We need better strategies for the approaching climate breaking point  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4162840-we-need-better-strategies-for-the-approaching-climate-breaking-point/)

I took it differently. It seemed like a lot of what they were talking about was work that is already ongoing.

Over 5 years, IEA projection of renewal energy generation capacity increasing by an amount the size of China's (~18% of world population) total power usage. Massive investments worldwide in renewables. 

Seems to me it was more looking at it from the lens of "it's bad, but we're finally starting to do something about it, and we hope that accelerates". 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 02:03:34 PM

The word for me is "hope".  Hope isn't a plan, hope is just woshing instead of doing.  It's fine to note that some progress is being made, but it would be far better to provide some perspective about it and discuss the new coal plants being built all over and that the rate of CO2 increase is not decreasing.  I find it misleading just to note the renewable generation going in without such perspective.

(https://i.imgur.com/sn9IwYk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 22, 2023, 02:09:17 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2023, 09:18:39 AM

I'm interested given that my house was in the eye of the worst hurricane to ever hit Florida.

California's about to get a little windy and very wet.

My son's house took a direct hit from Michael that hit Tyndall AFB in Panama City in 2018. At the time, they were saying that was the strongest recorded storm to ever hit Florida. Am I mistaken?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 02:16:58 PM

The strongest might not have been the worst ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 22, 2023, 02:21:31 PM

I have no idea how to define worst. Perhaps by property damage? I don't know. 

Anyway, I am not trying to one up anyone, just curious if I remember that correctly. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 02:30:08 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 22, 2023, 02:09:17 PM

My son's house took a direct hit from Michael that hit Tyndall AFB in Panama City in 2018. At the time, they were saying that was the strongest recorded storm to ever hit Florida. Am I mistaken?

Nope, you're not mistaken at all.

They both clocked in a 160 MPH sustained. Ian's swatch was slightly larger, so a wider area was hit.

Michael's peak winds were about 180 MPH. Ian's were 225 MPH when sensors failed.

Monetarily, Michael came in at $25 Billion. Ian sits at $113 Billion and counting.

Ian killed 161 people. Michael took 74.

Needless to say, they both suck and both names have been retired and will never be used again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2023, 02:41:33 PM

With hurricanes, the right side is the "dirty side", which sees the most rain and the most storm surge.

As you can see, not many people live to the "right" (East) of Michael's eye, which is obviously good.

(https://i.imgur.com/F4HUFdL.png)

Contrast that to Ian, and yep. Huge difference - a lot more targets to wipe out, which it did.

(https://i.imgur.com/nkMKYu7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on August 22, 2023, 04:52:47 PM

Weather conditions in Seoul during our visit were identical to conditions right now at MSP.

https://twitter.com/pdouglasweather/status/1694089052171931902?s=20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 04:59:29 PM

It's 97°F and 43% here at the moment, which I think it our hottest this year.  After Sunday, the highs are all below 90°F for a while.

We were just at the pool, it's definitely warm in the sun, there was a bit of a breeze.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 22, 2023, 06:44:05 PM

According to local weather evidently N.E. Ohio is 1 & 1/2 deg below average this summer.With perhaps our 2nd 90 deg day coming Friday 😎

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 10:22:16 PM

never fear, I'm sending some heat your way

was 109 coming across I-90 from Rapid City to Sioux Falls, SD this afternoon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 08:02:35 AM

From the NYT today:

“Twenty years from now, a summer like this is going to feel like a mild summer,” one expert told my colleague Somini Sengupta. Read more about our future (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/OVqwR808xYQDI6ETHC-Rlg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmyGeXP0T5aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOC8yMi9jbGltYXRlL3Ryb3BpY2FsLXN0b3JtLWNhbGlmb3JuaWEtbWF1aS1maXJlLWV4dHJlbWUtYXVndXN0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMDgyMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDA2NzUmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDI2ODImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmTbl-LlZK7vcetSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) of climate extremes.

If I didn't read the "news", I would not have thought this summer here was unusual at all.  This weekend is projected to be near 100°F but that isn't all that unusual.  Then we should be past it for the most part.

Highest Atlanta temperatures in recent years
Max °FDateMax °C
99June 15, 2022  37
95July 28, 2021  35
96August 09, 2020  36
100August 13, 2019 38
95September 15, 2018 +35
94July 26, 2017 +34
100June 25, 2016 38
97August 04, 2015 36
95August 07, 2014 35
92August 29, 2013 +33
106June 30, 2012 41
99August 26, 2011 37
97July 23, 2010 +36

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 08:17:54 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/9Xk6rsW.png)+

The CFM (Contra-Rotating Fan Module) induced fan aircraft engine is a hybrid propulsion system that combines features from both traditional turbofans and open rotor designs. It operates by utilizing two contra-rotating fan modules within a single engine nacelle. These modules consist of two sets of rotating blades, with the rear set designed to capture and utilize the residual energy from the exhaust of the front set. This unique configuration offers a balance between efficiency, performance, and noise reduction.

This Open Rotor designs place a large number of long, pitch-controllable blades in the air, combining the speed and performance of today's turbofans with the efficiency of a turboprop.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 08:24:06 AM

The Heat Effect: How the climate is changing Georgia – WABE (https://www.wabe.org/the-heat-effect-how-the-climate-is-changing-georgia/)

(https://i.imgur.com/xfiy0Pn.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2023, 08:43:19 AM

Scandinavian wine could be the next big thing as unpredictable weather hits southern Europe.

Scandinavia isn't exactly what connoisseurs would define as prime wine country. But with climate change making for warmer and longer growing seasons, and new varieties of grapes adapted to this landscape, Swedish winemaking is gaining steam.

As drought, rising heat and other extreme weather events are forcing traditional wine-growing regions to reassess their methods, Swedish winemaking is shifting from mostly small-scale amateurs to an industry with growing ambition.

Kullabergs Vingård is a vineyard and winery at the vanguard of producers seeking to redefine what Swedish wine can be.


https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/08/21/swedish-wine-how-global-warming-is-shifting-europes-vineyards-northwards (https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/08/21/swedish-wine-how-global-warming-is-shifting-europes-vineyards-northwards)

In recent years, grapevines have been planted farther and farther north, with commercial vineyards appearing in Norway and Denmark and others, including in the American West, expanding into cooler zones. The United Kingdom, famous for its ales and bitter beers, expects the area under vines to double in the next 10 years fuelled by demand for its sparkling wines.

“This is the new frontier of winemaking and grapes grow best on their coolest frontier,” Felix says as he walks through Kullabergs Vingård’s newly built winery.

Temperatures in southern Sweden have increased by about 2 degrees Celsius over the past 30 years compared to the 30 years before that, according to data from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. And the growing season has lengthened by about 20 days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2023, 09:35:00 AM

Borswede?  Swedeaux?

Count me in!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 23, 2023, 10:06:11 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 10:22:16 PM

never fear, I'm sending some heat your way

was 109 coming across I-90 from Rapid City to Sioux Falls, SD this afternoon

Don't do anything special for us. You can keep that weather. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 24, 2023, 01:42:58 PM

Things are heating up a bit now. That one coming out of the Pacific and crossing Mexico has my attention for sure.

(https://i.imgur.com/OuFsh1C.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 24, 2023, 01:52:01 PM

I predict Central Texico will get 0.0 inches of rain from any and all storms shown in this image.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on August 24, 2023, 01:52:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 08:24:06 AM

The Heat Effect: How the climate is changing Georgia – WABE (https://www.wabe.org/the-heat-effect-how-the-climate-is-changing-georgia/)

(https://i.imgur.com/xfiy0Pn.png)

It was warmer in the 1930s which would blow the above trend.  And trying to gauge Climate Change from personal experience over the course of a human lifetime is kind of silly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 24, 2023, 01:53:54 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPUb4Wsi9kI

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2023, 02:11:35 PM

Quote from: Temp430 on August 24, 2023, 01:52:06 PM

It was warmer in the 1930s which would blow the above trend.  And trying to gauge Climate Change from personal experience over the course of a human lifetime is kind of silly.

It is in a way, sure, I was wondering how folks here felt, as I said, this is a reason some don't believe the climate is changing.  This isn't about gauging climate, it's about gauging people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2023, 07:58:52 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/ia9oLfB.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 25, 2023, 08:04:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2023, 02:11:35 PM

It is in a way, sure, I was wondering how folks here felt, as I said, this is a reason some don't believe the climate is changing.  This isn't about gauging climate, it's about gauging people.

I can't speak for others, but I have no doubt that the climate is changing. I just don't support the idea that without the influence of humans it would not change. The Earth's climate has never been in a constant state and has always been in a state of change. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2023, 08:12:27 AM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 25, 2023, 08:04:16 AM

I can't speak for others, but I have no doubt that the climate is changing. I just don't support the idea that without the influence of humans it would not change. The Earth's climate has never been in a constant state and has always been in a state of change.

Sure, but it's a matter of perception, according to my question.  Then it's a matter of the why climate is changing, whether it's entirely normal or something due to human activities.  We're told the change is much faster than anything natural.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2023, 10:48:13 PM

Power plant condenser coating could cut 460 million tons of CO2 per year

Many types of power generation work on the steam cycle. Essentially, an energy source – whether that’s burning fossil fuels or through nuclear fission – is used to heat water in a boiler to produce steam, which is then channeled to spin a turbine, generating electricity. The steam is then collected in a condenser to reclaim the water to continue the cycle.

The researchers on the new study set out to improve the efficiency of the heat transfer of the condenser pipes. They developed a coating made of fluorinated diamond-like carbon (F-DLC), a material that’s hydrophobic, or water-repelling. When the steam condenses on the coated pipes, it no longer forms a thin film but balls up into droplets much more easily. That helps it run off faster, allowing more steam to come into contact with the pipe sooner.

In their tests, the team demonstrated that the coating boosted the pipe’s heat transfer properties by a factor of 20, which resulted in an overall efficiency boost of 2%. That might not sound like a whole lot, but according to their calculations, if all coal and natural gas power plants were 2% more efficient, then per year global CO2 emissions would drop by 460 million tons, 2 trillion gallons of cooling water would be saved, and an extra 1,000 TWh of electricity would be generated. That’s more than Russia consumes in a year.


“It's remarkable that we can achieve this with F-DLC, something that just uses carbon, fluorene and a little bit of silicon,” said Muhammad Hoque, lead author of the study. “And it can coat pretty much any common metal, including copper, bronze, aluminum and titanium.”

Importantly, the coatings were durability tested for 1,095 days, and found that they maintained their function for the whole time. They also did so after being scratched 5,000 times in an abrasion test.

The next step, the team says, is to test the coating’s performance under real-world industrial conditions for six months. While there are still questions of how such a coating might be put into wide use, even just a few plants adopting it should start to make a difference. Similar coatings have been made of materials like graphene, with similar results.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 11:33:52 AM

Looking like this thing is gonna be a big rainmaker for my part of Florida. Looks like the big bend is now the target area. I say it's too soon to tell, given what happened last September 28.

(https://i.imgur.com/jPlf3DW.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2023, 11:39:29 AM

heat wave is over here after a few days

high of 80 this afternoon - low in the upper 50s tonight

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2023, 11:46:09 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 26, 2023, 11:39:29 AM

heat wave is over here after a few days

high of 80 this afternoon - low in the upper 50s tonight

Today and tomorrow will be hot, and then a break for a bit.  It won't get any hotter from here, 98°F was the high for the summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 11:47:47 AM

We will get a break in the heat when that storm rolls by or through. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 26, 2023, 12:14:28 PM

supposed to hit 108 tomorrow here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 12:36:41 PM

Not looking great for Bermuda. Maybe they will be spared based on this?

(https://i.imgur.com/FZiWGTR.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2023, 12:47:51 PM

We just walked to the local farmer's market they have here and it is pretty heinous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 12:55:38 PM

Wet market?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2023, 12:59:25 PM

Ha, no, they have about 40 booths, some produce, one makes crepes, one guy makes really good bread, and some interesting artisanal items like wooden items.

It's once a week and pretty fun, usually packed but today was very light.  We got some cheese and bread and apples.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2023, 01:16:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 26, 2023, 12:47:51 PM

We just walked to the local farmer's market they have here and it is pretty heinous.

too many farmers and their daughters?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 01:26:34 PM

When my wife goes to a farmer's market, I always tell her to buy a farmer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2023, 01:29:08 PM

Expecting a few days in the 90s here to start the week, but the 10-day shows that breaking and getting down to highs around 78-81 past mid-week. 

I hope so. Just got my electric bill and it was $490 from running the a/c. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2023, 01:41:03 PM

Mine dropped under $200 after breaking that mark last month.  Our heat pumps are pretty efficient, and only two outside facing walls.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2023, 01:44:04 PM

I expect my electric bill to climb over $60 from the recent 4 days of oppressive heat

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 02:08:30 PM

Models are coming out now.


(https://i.imgur.com/iCOCYZ2.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2023, 03:11:54 PM

Florida weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 03:34:26 PM

Florida Weather, Climate and Environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:17:50 AM

you could always move back to Chicago for the summers 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 09:26:12 AM

I cannot type what I really want to type.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:27:08 AM

friggin moderators

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 27, 2023, 09:27:14 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2023, 01:26:34 PM

When my wife goes to a farmer's market, I always tell her to buy a farmer.

Might have to procure the the surrounding grounds also - that could get pricey

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:32:28 AM

the farmer might buy her

we've been subsidizing farmers since at least 1938.  Some of my good friends have accumulated some real wealth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 09:33:13 AM

Depends where the land is.

(https://i.imgur.com/gvIkZ2h.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 27, 2023, 09:39:10 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:32:28 AM

the farmer might buy her

we've been subsidizing farmers since at least 1938.  Some of my good friends have accumulated some real wealth.

Well demand some goods from the fields or is that their cow you keep cutting and aging?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 09:39:48 AM

Ten day forecast here has thunderstorms for Wed and Thu, which I gather means they expect us to be hit by at least the fringes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 27, 2023, 09:43:47 AM

10 hr forecasts are about as far out as you want to project. Unbeleivable how the script get flipped on the computer generated forecast screens in just half a day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:43:53 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 27, 2023, 09:39:10 AM

Well demand some goods from the fields or is that their cow you keep cutting and aging?

Ralphie is a cow
these are steers and heifers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 10:00:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 09:39:48 AM

Ten day forecast here has thunderstorms for Wed and Thu, which I gather means they expect us to be hit by at least the fringes.

Based on the above warning cone, I'd suspect that to be the case.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 12:59:12 PM

The EIA Just Released a 30 Year Energy Outlook. It’s… Not Great - Union of Concerned Scientists (ucsusa.org) (https://blog.ucsusa.org/sandra-sattler/eia-energy-outlook-2022/)

CO2 emissions remain mostly level through 2050—nowhere close to meeting US climate goals.



Duh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 07:49:37 PM

Turning East... Dammit.

(https://i.imgur.com/zsHpJF4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:56:04 PM

florida is great

I don't want to line there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 27, 2023, 10:01:16 PM

Old boring dirt farming isn't such a bad gig

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2023, 08:25:14 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:56:04 PM

florida is great

I don't want to line there

We love it here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on August 28, 2023, 08:37:11 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/3Zn2wYb.png)

Now forecast to be a major hurricane before landfall in FL.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2023, 08:39:18 AM

Every place has issues - earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, severe drought, heavy snows, very cold winters, humidity, thin air ... volcanoes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 28, 2023, 08:45:10 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:56:04 PM

florida is great

I don't want to line there

Yup I like Florida a lot.

I don't want to live there.

You're welcome for my support. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2023, 07:51:38 AM

We've been getting a fair bit of rain over the past few days and expect more today and tomorrow, this isn't related to the hurricane, nearly as I can tell.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 07:54:24 AM

need rain badly

a chance of rain a week from today

oppressive heat coming in for the holiday weekend - triple digits

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2023, 07:59:01 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 29, 2023, 07:51:38 AM

We've been getting a fair bit of rain over the past few days and expect more today and tomorrow, this isn't related to the hurricane, nearly as I can tell. 

ATL won't see anything from this storm until Wednesday afternoon - if even anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2023, 08:03:24 AM

Yeah, I think the hurricane low pressure system may have "reached out" and perturbed some moisture from the gulf, so this rain may be loosely related.  It rained pretty hard at times, woke me up this morning at 5 AM, I wasn't sure what the noise was at first.

The balcony has an awning above it that is clothlike and hard rain on it drums a fair bit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2023, 08:08:11 AM

We've seen no rain yet from this storm. Maybe starting around Noon today. Below is the latest.

I placed a green dot in my location.

(https://i.imgur.com/C3aR7FX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 29, 2023, 09:03:01 AM

Good Luck. I hope you come out unscathed. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2023, 12:20:44 PM

Just got a downpour from an outer band. Lots of thunder and lightning. At this point I'm concerned mostly about tornado development.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 29, 2023, 12:44:56 PM

youre on the dirty side of this storm

hope it hits further north

good luck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2023, 01:06:51 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 29, 2023, 12:44:56 PM

youre on the dirty side of this storm

hope it hits further north

good luck

That's mostly the case for here. I have no idea when the last time a storm actually hit South of us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2023, 02:38:48 PM

hang in there badge and other Floridians.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 29, 2023, 02:43:03 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 29, 2023, 02:38:48 PM

hang in there badge and other Floridians.

Yep...

Having recently survived a hurricane myself, I'm sending my thoughts & prayers. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2023, 03:16:23 PM

Thanks fellas. So far, so good. Lots of rain and a little breezy. I feel for those in the Big Bend area.

Gonna make burgers on the grill tonight. Vodka and grapefruit soon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 03:44:41 PM

indoor grill?

or rain gear?

(https://media.tenor.com/NPI42i6g7WYAAAAC/backyard-grill-rain.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 29, 2023, 03:52:57 PM

Doesn't look like your dirt farming neighborhood unless they're paying a lot more for dirt

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 29, 2023, 03:55:06 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 07:54:24 AM

need rain badly

Well we haven't been getting your weather crops,gardens,flower beds have been wiped out - nice the last two days tho

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 04:02:46 PM

you didn't get the oppressive heat wave???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2023, 04:30:21 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 03:44:41 PM

indoor grill?

or rain gear?

This.

(https://i.imgur.com/4U406iD.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 04:40:42 PM

that's not fair

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 29, 2023, 04:52:32 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 04:02:46 PM

you didn't get the oppressive heat wave???

No we were building arks perhaps you heard there was 7 tornadoes in Michigan and 5 in Ohio Thu/Friday. maybe the Canadians got it prompting wild fires. We've had 2 90 deg days so far

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2023, 05:12:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 29, 2023, 04:40:42 PM

that's not fair

Neither is life.

;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2023, 05:15:05 PM

I was out by the pool today pondering the cumulus clouds floating by, it was rather pleasant.  This is like a vacation with no end.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 08:57:14 AM

Climate anxiety on the rise as heat, disasters provoke fear – The Hill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/4176619-climate-anxiety-on-the-rise-as-heat-disasters-provoke-fear/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2023, 09:20:34 AM

perhaps it will lead to nuclear start ups

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 09:23:05 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 30, 2023, 09:20:34 AM

perhaps it will lead to nuclear start ups

The irony here is that most folks most concerned about CC are also most against nuclear.  Were I HIGHLY concerned about CC I'd be pushing nuclear hard, were I in position to do so.  This supports the fear that this is mostly political BS and a control tactic to throw money to favored few.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2023, 09:35:53 AM

well, nuclear could be the new favored few

the liberals in charge could figure out how to make nuclear the new "green" energy and sway their sheep

the conservatives would simply sway the other way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 09:45:15 AM

When talking political angles, nuclear simply isn't a realistic options for CC folks, no matter what.  The Democrats who like to ride this issue simply will never mention it as an option for political reasons (maybe one or two might mention it as an aside).

Nobody is going to push it to combat CC so it's not going to happen in the US.  Maybe SMRs will take off, some day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2023, 10:02:25 AM

Storm made landfall up North. Prayers to them.

Still dealing with wind, rain and the threat of tornadoes down here. Probably out of the woods by happy hour.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2023, 10:05:31 AM

how were the burgers last night. 

greyhounds or salty dogs?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2023, 10:08:11 AM

People came over. We ended up with a hurricane party. Only solids consumed were ice cubes.

Burgers tonight!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2023, 10:30:13 AM

We're of course on the very outer most fringes, clouds, rain expected this PM, nothing at all major fortunately.  Had it blipped north maybe tornadoes might have been at issue.  South Georgia is another story, I hope not a bad one of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 30, 2023, 11:23:47 AM

looks to me you might get some of it

hope not

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 10:45:06 AM

This is from the NYT, but I suspect it's basically correct, and worrisome:

he water that lies beneath the earth’s surface — known as groundwater — has been a vital resource for thousands of years. Communities that are far away from lakes and rivers use groundwater to irrigate crops and provide drinking water.

For most of human history, groundwater has existed in a convenient equilibrium. The pockets of water under the surface need years or decades to replenish as rainwater and other moisture seep into the earth. Fortunately, though, people have used groundwater slowly, allowing replenishment to happen.

Now that equilibrium is at risk.

Several of my colleagues — led by Mira Rojanasakul and Christopher Flavelle — have spent months compiling data on groundwater levels across the U.S., based on more than 80,000 monitoring stations. Chris and Mira did so after discovering that no comprehensive database existed. The statistics tended to be local and fragmented, making it difficult to understand national patterns.

The trends in this new database are alarming. Over the past 40 years, groundwater levels at most of the sites have declined. At 11 percent of the sites, levels last year fell to their lowest level on record.

The U.S., in other words, is taking water out of the ground more quickly than nature is replenishing it. “There’s almost no way to convey how important it is,” Don Cline, the associate director for water resources at the United States Geological Survey, told The Times.

Already, there are consequences. In parts of Kansas, the shortage of water has reduced the amount of corn that an average acre can produce.

(https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/79FUbTpGuztow-1XMgeb0N7LKEErI8FQLHZHJoXsW-oed0Ek7K8zRyZMF1fmNY87akCb0LdGPmnBalteKmyLhvPPWA1AMF_L0PbuPxZVSSgs_hJhzPnsUHTkL2rWD0hLETowGdyJIl1PwhUb9eAiDaXwIv2JqtjiG_t1ZDDU=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/08/28/briefing/oakImage-1693275937259/oakImage-1693275937259-jumbo.png) Sources: U.S.D.A., U.S.G.S., Kansas Geological Survey | By The New York Times

In Norfolk, Va., officials have resorted to pumping treated wastewater into underground rock layers that store groundwater — known as aquifers — to replenish them. On Long Island, the depletion of aquifers has allowed saltwater to seep in and threatened the groundwater that remains.

“We’ve built whole parts of the country and whole parts of the economy on groundwater, which is fine so long as you have groundwater,” Chris told me. “I don’t think people realize quite how quickly we’re burning through it.”

Giant wells

Unlike many other environmental trends, this story is not primarily about climate change, although the warming planet plays an aggravating role. There are three main reasons for the groundwater declines:

Pumping technology has improved, allowing communities to draw water out of the earth much more quickly than in the past. Some wells can pump more than 100,000 gallons a day. Economic growth and urban sprawl have increased the demand for water. Although the U.S. economy has not been growing rapidly in recent decades, American farms help feed other countries where the economy and population have been growing faster. Climate change has reduced the amount of water that comes from alternative sources, like rivers: A warmer planet leads to less rainfall and faster evaporation of the rain that does fall. These declines have led communities to increase groundwater use.

These forces are not unique to the U.S. Other countries are coping with groundwater declines that are sometimes worse. This summer, my colleagues Vivian Yee and Leily Nikounazar reported on the dire shortages in parts of Iran (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/3VefLhK6WZtNJ4X3m1h1Ww~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm0FJsP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wNi8yMS93b3JsZC9taWRkbGVlYXN0L2lyYW4tZHJvdWdodC13YXRlci1jbGltYXRlLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMDgyOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDEzOTgmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDMxNDcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmTnbM3tZKHTQZ9SEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), while Alissa Rubin and Bryan Denton did so in Iraq. The photographs and videos from Iraq (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/Zg5hT08utuc24HzNotjIZQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm0FJsP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wNy8yOS93b3JsZC9taWRkbGVlYXN0L2lyYXEtd2F0ZXItY3Jpc2lzLWRlc2VydGlmaWNhdGlvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzA4MjkmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTAxMzk4Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQzMTQ3JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0Qgpk52zN7WSh00GfUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) are especially jarring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2023, 10:59:51 AM

One bit of this confuses me...

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 10:45:06 AM

Climate change has reduced the amount of water that comes from alternative sources, like rivers: A warmer planet leads to less rainfall and faster evaporation of the rain that does fall. These declines have led communities to increase groundwater use.

If water evaporates due to warming, it goes into clouds, which then drop it back on the planet as rain. If it evaporates more quickly and becomes clouds again, it drops back onto the planet as rain again. 

I can see an argument that a warming planet perhaps will lead to changing weather patterns and localized droughts in areas that didn't have them historically, but I don't understand how this leads to seemingly less total rainfall on the planet if water is evaporating into the atmosphere more easily. 

It doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever. 

If I'm wrong, I welcome someone trying to educate me on how this works.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 11:03:28 AM

The hydrologic cycle is always balanced. The amount of water never changes. All that changes is where the water is at a given time.

I don't call that article very good at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2023, 11:05:31 AM

I can see that warmer temperatures mean more water vapor in the atmosphere overall, absolute humidity would increase.  I don't know how large a factor that is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 11:15:41 AM

Just need a giant dehumidifier. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2023, 12:04:02 PM

The Ogallala Aquifer is the largest aquifer in the United States and is a major aquifer of Texas underlying much of the High Plains region. The aquifer consists of sand, gravel, clay, and silt and has a maximum thickness of 800 feet. Freshwater saturated thickness averages 95 feet.

(https://modernfarmer.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/ogallala_aquifer_usgs-1200x743.jpg)

Seems a bit odd since this area gets relatively little rain compared to just East of there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2023, 12:04:53 PM

The Ogallala Aquifer: Saving a Vital U.S. Water Source
The massive underground water source feeds the middle third of the country but is disappearing fast. Can it be conserved?

By Jane Braxton Little on March 1, 2009

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2023, 03:09:01 PM

Pretty busy in the Atlantic right now. September 10 is peak season. Gonna keep my eye on the one Africa just tossed out there.

(https://i.imgur.com/lhfCnUX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2023, 09:20:21 AM

Germany is the 'sick man of Europe' — and it's causing a shift to the right, top economist says (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/04/germany-is-the-sick-man-of-europe-and-its-causing-a-shift-to-the-right-top-economist-says.html)

There are growing signs of public disenchantment in the shift to a more sustainable Europe, with a so-called “greenlash” emerging as people feel the cost impacts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 11:13:36 AM

Gonna have to watch this one. Any concerns from @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) or @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) here?

(https://i.imgur.com/0MOjwf4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 05, 2023, 11:46:16 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 11:13:36 AM

Gonna have to watch this one. Any concerns from @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) or @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) here?

(https://i.imgur.com/0MOjwf4.png)
Rrrgh.  I moved in early 16.  The locals all said “ meh- we haven’t had a hurricane in 10 years”
Now- we seem to have one every year.  My first year here was a direct hit.
My better half was ready to Kill me when I got from my annual ( 32nd annual this year) nort
Thern Mi golf trip w my HS/football/Bball friends.
At least 3 of these have it when I was gone- she was not happy.
As long as I am back before it hits….

They suck.  But my house was built to withstand a direct hit from a Cat 5- so that helps   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 12:23:18 PM

I can't remember. Did you get effects from Ian last year? Seem to recall it barreled straight across after it hit here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 05, 2023, 12:39:38 PM

Looks to me this one will bend north of you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 05, 2023, 12:40:55 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 12:23:18 PM

I can't remember. Did you get effects from Ian last year? Seem to recall it barreled straight across after it hit here.

Just 2-3 days of sustained 40-50 mph winds and heavy rain.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 12:45:32 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 05, 2023, 12:39:38 PM

Looks to me this one will bend north of you

That's what we are hoping for. Long-term spaghetti models have it doing that, but some have it going straight.

USA and EU models have it North.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 01:46:47 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 05, 2023, 12:39:38 PM

Looks to me this one will bend north of you

(https://i.imgur.com/AioKE81.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 05, 2023, 01:50:52 PM

Fish storm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 02:24:27 PM

Never heard that until we moved here.

And I really like hearing that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 02:52:14 PM

What does "fish storm " mean? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2023, 03:20:44 PM

Quote from: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 02:52:14 PM

What does "fish storm " mean?

It's when a storm stays out in the Atlantic to die without affecting land.

Those don't happen in the Gulf. When they make it into the Gulf, they are gonna do damage in almost every instance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 04:32:55 PM

Regarding the discussion on groundwater a few pages back....

It's well established that the Ogallala aquifer has been dropping for decades. It supplies some major farmland with irrigation needs.  There are lots of other aquifers in places that are stressed as well. Which is why there is a big push to move most Texas towns/cities to surface water.  Which means more reservoirs essentially.  

One of the big things that can be done is to STOP subsidizing the ethanol industry, which is reliant on corn.  Lots of water being pumped to support that enterprise.  Bet nobody counts the CO2 emissions from millions of gallons being pumped.  

As I type this my guys are setting casing for a 320 foot well we just drilled.  Hopefully this one makes water, the previous attempt was not good.  Trying for 50-80 gallons per minute.  Wish me luck ! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 05, 2023, 05:05:16 PM

Quote from: Gigem on September 05, 2023, 04:32:55 PM

One of the big things that can be done is to STOP subsidizing the ethanol industry, which is reliant on corn.  Lots of water being pumped to support that enterprise.  Bet nobody counts the CO2 emissions from millions of gallons being pumped. 

Yep. One of the fun dealings of politics. The interests which benefit from corn-based ethanol are highly centralized and can exert enormous lobbying power to keep it, while those who pay the costs of it are diffused and nobody has enough incentive to put their political career on the line to kill it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 06, 2023, 12:13:52 AM

well, the ethanol lobby can't hold a candle to the Oil lobby

or the egg lobby

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2023, 08:45:48 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/world/hottest-summer-record-climate-intl/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 11:55:22 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/6zCQWAS.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 11:58:29 AM

Bermuda, please pick up the white courtesy phone...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Hawkinole on September 07, 2023, 10:58:35 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 07, 2023, 11:58:29 AM

Bermuda, please pick up the white courtesy phone...

In another year those of us old enough to recall "the white courtesy phone" audio in O'Hare airport will have dementia, and will never figure out what you are talking about in this post, and those younger than us will have no historical reference.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 08, 2023, 10:45:58 PM

Hell, I don’t remember what it means now. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2023, 08:42:31 AM

India has begun commercial operation of its first domestically designed 700-MWe pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) at the Kakrapar nuclear power plant in Gujarat, state-owned Nuclear Power Corp. of India Ltd. (NPCIL) reported on Aug. 30.

Commercial operation of  Unit 3 at Kakrapar Atomic Power Project, which is located near the city of Vyara in the state of Gujarat, began on June 30, nearly three years after the unit achieved first criticality. Unit 4, a twin 700-MWe unit, is at an “advanced stage of commissioning,” with a target to begin commercial operation in March 2024, the government entity noted. Kakrapar already houses two 220-MWe PHWR reactors completed between 1993 and 1995,


Kakrapar 3’s commercial operation, marks a significant milestone for India, positioning the reactor as the “front-runner” in a series of 16 indigenous 700-MWe PHWRs, which are at various stages of implementation,” NPCIL said.

India has a 6.3-GW operating nuclear fleet comprised of 17 PHWR nuclear reactors, and two VVER pressurized water reactors (PWRs, at Kundankulam in Tamil Nadu). Two boiling water reactors (BWRs) at Tarapur Atomic Power Station in Maharashtra state and one PHWR (Unit 1 at the Madras Atomic Power Station in Tamil Nadu) are currently in suspended operation.

It also has eight nuclear reactors under construction. Along with Kakrapar 4 in Gujarat, these include two other 700-MW PHWRs at the  Rajasthan Atomic Power Station and four PWRs at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant. NPCIL last week noted that 15 700-MWe PHWR reactors “are at different stages of implementation.” A prototype fast-breeder reactor (PFBR),  spearheaded by India’s national nuclear research arm, Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam Ltd. (BHAVINI), is also reportedly at an advanced stage of integrated commissioning in Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu. The government anticipates completing construction of these projects by 2027.


https://www.powermag.com/india-begins-commercial-operation-of-first-domestically-designed-700-mwe-phwr-nuclear-reactor/ (https://www.powermag.com/india-begins-commercial-operation-of-first-domestically-designed-700-mwe-phwr-nuclear-reactor/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 09, 2023, 10:01:41 AM

https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-scientist-left-out-full-truth-climate-change-wildfire-study-published

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2023, 10:07:19 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/kFKBO36.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2023, 12:10:21 PM

EPA: Climate law will cut carbon emissions up to 43 percent | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4199652-epa-climate-law-will-cut-carbon-emissions-up-to-43-percent/)

Looks like H Lee is veering north fortunately.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 15, 2023, 10:13:03 PM

A deal was announced Tuesday that will restart a nuclear plant in Southern Michigan, which is the first time in U.S. history that such a plant will be reopened.

Holtec International and Wolverine Power Cooperative, a not-for-profit power generation cooperative based in Michigan, announced that they have entered into a long-term agreement that will restart the 800-megawatt Palisades Nuclear Power Plant in Covert Township. Covert Township is just south of South Haven.

Holtec Decommissioning International bought the Palisades Nuclear Generating Station for the stated purpose of dismantling it, weeks after previous owner Entergy shut it down. Fuel was removed from the reactor core. Federal regulators were notified of “permanent cessation of power operations.” But with support from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and leaders in the Lake Michigan community where Palisades was an economic driver for 50 years, Holtec soon kicked off a campaign to bring the plant back. The 800 megawatt facility had generated roughly 5% of the state’s electricity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 16, 2023, 08:47:55 AM

Interesting, I hope they have regulatory.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 18, 2023, 09:54:47 AM

Keeping an eye on that one coming off the Coast of Africa now. Good chance of formation and moving due West as of now.

(https://i.imgur.com/6dhgiEN.png)

Nigel looks to be a fish storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/NdhPkHn.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 18, 2023, 10:18:54 AM

Have we invented some sort of hurricane repellant

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2023, 10:24:15 AM

global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2023, 11:02:20 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 18, 2023, 10:24:15 AM

global warming

I don't think HPF 120 is a strong enough Hurricane Protection Factor (HPF). We clearly need HPF 1000 to make a difference. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 18, 2023, 11:10:49 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 18, 2023, 10:18:54 AM

Have we invented some sort of hurricane repellant

I don't think any storm out of Africa has made its way to the Carribean this year. Seems strange.

This next disturbance might change that. 

Idalia from a few weeks back developed in the Pacific and jump over Latin America to pound NW and Central Florida. That seems strange too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 18, 2023, 12:16:41 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 18, 2023, 11:10:49 AM

I don't think any storm out of Africa has made its way to the Carribean this year. Seems strange.

This next disturbance might change that.

Idalia from a few weeks back developed in the Pacific and jump over Latin America to pound NW and Central Florida. That seems strange too.

I didnt realize that storm started in the Pacific

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 18, 2023, 12:19:12 PM

I was watching the local news and the hurricane expert noted that system in the Pacific and that he was really keeping a close eye on it.

I was taken aback a little as I've not seen that (albeit in only 3.5 years here).

He was absolutely right on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2023, 10:17:23 AM

climate.cmail19.com/t/d-e-vilmo-iiirtykrjj-r/ (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-e-vilmo-iiirtykrjj-r/)

"Climate Week" in NYC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 02:15:25 PM

Shout out to our friends in the Carolinas. Be safe.

(https://i.imgur.com/ZrFDvXX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 21, 2023, 02:20:36 PM

I just hope the next storm we get is as weak as that one

good for them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 21, 2023, 02:25:03 PM

@Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1) 

be safe out there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 02:28:14 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 21, 2023, 02:20:36 PM

I just hope the next storm we get is as weak as that one

good for them

Lots of rain with this one, and storm surge in all of those barrier islands.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Drew4UTk on September 21, 2023, 02:38:44 PM

yeah gonna be a wet weekend @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) ... the good news is Florence removed all the weaker trees five years ago this week... the bad news is every tree that relied on those weaker trees to protect it from full value of the wind- are gone... 

i don't know what that means^.... an arborist friend of mine was saying it and it sounded insightful... 

i thought for certain we were going to get slammed this season with a major storm... water temperatures inland, in the sound, at the beach and even offshore were record high... it's not that there was any earth shattering hot days, it's that it was so consistently hot this year.... 

curious, though, my pool dropped from 98deg to 81deg in the last two weeks- mostly due to two single nights that touched the 50s.... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2023, 05:56:40 AM

Australian Electricity Generation – 2023 Update | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/09/18/australian-electricity-generation-2023-update/#more-30476)

A foreseeable crisis...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2023, 11:44:14 AM

Been thinking more about nuclear power.

What about Nuke Peaker plants? Is that feasible? Smaller plants to subsidize the green stuff during peak demand?

Where could they be built, and is it worth it? Obviously needs to be near a water supply, for cooling.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2023, 11:49:05 AM

Peaker plants need to start up quickly, nuclear plants or coal plants using steam turbines take a long time to get rolling.

Peaker plants today are all or nearly all natural gas, they operate like jet eingines, because they are jet engines, and fire up about as quickly.  They have no need to heat steam to a certain pressure/T.

Hydrostorage is another option, but rarely used so far.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2023, 12:04:21 PM

Hybrid nuke/gas? Get it going on gas and then flip the switch?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2023, 12:11:55 PM

I think you'd just run a gas turbine as a peaker perhaps adjacent to a nuke plant running for baseload power.

A significant issue with wind/solar is too MUCH power at times leading to negative effective energy rates.  Then of course you can have too little unless you way over build.  So, you have to combine with storage or peaker plants or rely on a substantial base load source like nuclear.  Wind and solar alone cannot work properly.  

And these peaker plants produce expensive power because they don't run all the time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Drew4UTk on September 22, 2023, 07:27:57 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 02:15:25 PM

Shout out to our friends in the Carolinas. Be safe.

[img width=253.378 height=410]https://i.imgur.com/ZrFDvXX.png[/img]

I'm being told the sustained winds are not teetering on hurricane and it will be a cat1 when the eye hits around 6am tomorrow morning. 

It snuck right up on us.  The governor is issuing SoE orders now... its expected to make landfall at western carteret or eastern Onslow counties... wanna guess where I live?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2023, 08:51:38 AM

Quote from: Drew4UTk on September 22, 2023, 07:27:57 PM

I'm being told the sustained winds are not teetering on hurricane and it will be a cat1 when the eye hits around 6am tomorrow morning. 

It snuck right up on us.  The governor is issuing SoE orders now... its expected to make landfall at western carteret or eastern Onslow counties... wanna guess where I live?

Damn man. I hope you're OK.

4-6 feet of storm surge in your area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2023, 01:08:56 PM

This is taken in Washington, NC - 60 miles INLAND!

(https://i.imgur.com/WcnCJVK.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 23, 2023, 01:57:09 PM

I see boats in the background!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2023, 02:09:10 PM

Well, it IS a marina after all. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2023, 09:04:11 AM

Any updates from @Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1) on the storm?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Drew4UTk on September 24, 2023, 10:14:24 AM

It was a little puffer that tried its best to be a hurricane, but just missed it.  

Those pics- "little" Washington, as it's called, is on the nuese River right before it dumps into the pamlico sound... by boat you can get from Washington to the outer banks in an hour and a half... it does get some tides even being that far from the ocean.

Not much to report here... winds blew, rain fell, everything is wet.  There are maybe half a dozen trees down total in my lil neighborhood- during Florence, as reference, there was that in just my yard.  Most the "damage" was because lack of prep- such as boats left on lifts and collapsing, or the likes.  And that, only because this one snuck up on us.  

I hear there is another one playing around PR right now?  

I suppose living in this area isn't much different than living in tornado alley.... its only a threat when it is.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2023, 08:14:31 AM

Glad you're fine. Next one is a fish storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/FsyfEuX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 26, 2023, 10:33:08 AM

Sobering recent New Yorker article on just how unlivable Phoenix summers are becoming; the numbers of heat related deaths across Maricopa County are increasing at much higher Summer totals.

Having recently spent two separate summer weeks in Phoenix – early July and early September – and having beforehand lived in Arizona off and on for years at a time, I caught myself sensing how much more relentlessly sweltering the sun-charged heat felt across the city.

And yes, as the article observes, the streets in central Phoenix appeared nearly empty throughout the July mid-day – "The streets seem abandoned" – something I hadn't really seen before giving the sheer population of Phoenix metro keeping the streets busy with traffic.

“Across the U.S. each year, significantly more people die from heat than from any other weather-related event, including hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and even rip currents. Many of these deaths are concentrated in and around Phoenix. In 2022, there were four hundred and twenty-five heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County—a twenty-five-per-cent increase from the previous year.”

“Still, this summer, which included the hottest July ever recorded on the planet, has been different. Not only were the days scorching but there was a stretch of sixteen days when the nighttime low was ninety degrees or above, including one night when the low was ninety-seven degrees.”

“So far, the Maricopa County Office of the Medical Examiner has confirmed a hundred and eighty heat-associated deaths this year, with three hundred and thirty still under investigation. Both numbers are much higher than those at the same time last year, despite a lag in the data, since it takes about six weeks for the O.M.E. to conclude a death investigation. The O.M.E.—already one of the busiest medical examiner’s offices in the U.S.—has been overwhelmed.”



https://twitter.com/NewYorker/status/1699435716223127969

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2023, 10:46:46 AM

No genius would build a city in a desert. 

Gee, let's take an already hot place and cover it with asphalt. What could go wrong?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2023, 02:59:53 PM

Meeting climate change goals is still possible with renewable energy and EVs : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/09/26/1201781387/climate-change-emissions-report-offers-hope)

Hope?  Sounds like dreaming to me.

For example, the world is on track to spend $1.8 trillion on clean energy this year. To meet the target outlined in the 2015 Paris climate agreement among the world's nations, the IEA finds annual spending would have to more than double to $4.5 trillion by the early 2030s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2023, 05:46:45 PM

and even rip currents

living in a rip current may be dumber than living in the desert

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 27, 2023, 08:00:12 AM

Microsoft Looking to Use Nuclear Reactors to Power Its Data Centers

The company just doesn't want to have to rely on the nearby energy grid to run its cloud services.

https://www.extremetech.com/energy/microsoft-looking-to-use-nuclear-reactors-to-power-its-data-centers (https://www.extremetech.com/energy/microsoft-looking-to-use-nuclear-reactors-to-power-its-data-centers)

News of Microsoft's plans comes from a job listing for a "Principal Program Manager Nuclear Technology." The listing states the company is looking for someone to examine how to integrate a small modular reactor (SMR) into its data centers' power plans, so there's not much ambiguity here. It's specifically looking for this person to perform a "technical assessment for the integration of SMR and microreactors to power the data centers that the Microsoft Cloud and AI reside on." Amazingly, the position is "up to" 100% work from home, which is pretty sweet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2023, 09:20:03 AM

The SMR concept is interesting, and could be a thing for real, but all I read about them is "studies"... and maybe some prototype somewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2023, 11:17:05 AM

Phillipe is gonna peter out over Puerto Rico this weekend. The one behind it is of some concern as it will develop into a named storm soon.

(https://i.imgur.com/5Uv3UFV.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/KbsDax3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2023, 11:25:26 AM

We're on the downside of the curve for cyclonic frequency in the Atlantic, I hope we don't see much from here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2023, 11:30:23 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2023, 11:25:26 AM

We're on the downside of the curve for cyclonic frequency in the Atlantic, I hope we don't see much from here.

Tomorrow and Friday mark one year from Ian. Still a long way to go, unfortunately.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 09:59:38 AM

One year ago today. That was one hell of an experience for us, being our first hurricane, but we were nowhere near as impacted of the poor people South of us. Didn't know it then, but we were extremely lucky to be inside the eye.

How Matlacha showed their recovery 1 year after Hurricane Ian (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/09/28/matlacha-residents-recovery-hurricane-ian/)

Southwest Florida after Ian (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/09/28/swfl-after-ian/)

Video:

Fort Myers Beach marks one year since Hurricane Ian roared ashore - CBS Miami (cbsnews.com) (https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/fort-myers-beach-marks-one-year-since-hurricane-ian-roared-ashore/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2023, 10:12:32 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 09:59:38 AM

One year ago today. That was one hell of an experience for us, being our first hurricane, but we were nowhere near as impacted of the poor people South of us. Didn't know it then, but we were extremely lucky to be inside the eye.

How Matlacha showed their recovery 1 year after Hurricane Ian (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/09/28/matlacha-residents-recovery-hurricane-ian/)

Southwest Florida after Ian (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/09/28/swfl-after-ian/)

Video:

Fort Myers Beach marks one year since Hurricane Ian roared ashore - CBS Miami (cbsnews.com) (https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/fort-myers-beach-marks-one-year-since-hurricane-ian-roared-ashore/)

Yes- my brother lives over there ( Cape Coral- just bordering south end of Fort Meyers).

it is still heartbreaking just to drive through. There’s lots of construction, but it still looks like a hurricane just hit week ago. 

To their credit, the folks over there are bound and determined to rebuild and keep a positive attitude 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 10:23:04 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2023, 10:12:32 AM

Yes- my brother lives over there ( Cape Coral- just bordering south end of Fort Meyers).

Where about? Red dot is us - blue dot is Matlacha. 


(https://i.imgur.com/BoV3CgZ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2023, 11:11:02 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 10:23:04 AM

Where about? Red dot is us - blue dot is Matlacha.


(https://i.imgur.com/BoV3CgZ.png)

Google Maps (https://www.google.com/maps/@26.599318,-82.1037046,11z?entry=ttu)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2023, 11:12:55 AM

Right where it says “Pelican”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 11:16:48 AM

That's a nice part of the Cape. NW not so much - well and septic there. No thank you.

Can he get to the River by boat then? I think those are all saltwater canals down there. Most of the NW is freshwater canals with no access.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2023, 11:18:00 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 11:16:48 AM

That's a nice part of the Cape. NW not so much - well and septic there. No thank you.

Can he get to the River by boat then? I think those are all saltwater canals down there. Most of the NW is freshwater canals with no access.

He lives on a saltwater canal and goes out to and through the river every weekend.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 11:21:09 AM

More videos.

Flying over Matlacha, Pine Island one year after Hurricane Ian provides dramatic views (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/flying-over-matlacha-pine-island-one-year-after-hurricane-ian-provides-dramatic-views/ar-AA1hnOvz?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=66298883944e45d6aa84942850d3a0e1&ei=42#image=1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 11:22:07 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 28, 2023, 11:18:00 AM

He lives on a saltwater canal and goes out to and through the river every weekend. 

How long of a trek is that? Are those canals "no wake" or "minimum wake" like most around here?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 28, 2023, 05:00:20 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 11:16:48 AM

That's a nice part of the Cape. NW not so much - well and septic there. No thank you.

What's wrong with having your own well?  

As far as septic goes, just make sure it's spaced away from the well :)  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 05:14:41 PM

Water down here sucks.

Even on City water we have a complex filtering system.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2023, 05:17:24 PM

One year ago.

(https://i.imgur.com/EC54giU.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2023, 11:38:59 PM

I'd rather move to Austin Texas and I'm not moving to Austin 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 28, 2023, 11:42:21 PM

Well yeah, nearly anything would be better than Cuba. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2023, 11:47:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 28, 2023, 11:38:59 PM

I'd rather move to Austin Texas and I'm not moving to Austin

Thank You For Your Support

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 05:32:47 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 28, 2023, 11:42:21 PM

Well yeah, nearly anything would be better than Cuba.

We visited Havana off a cruise a while back, my wife wanted to go.  Her "near Commie friends" told her it was great.  It was far worse than I expected, really run down and pathetic, and this is the "touristy" area which I had thought they would dress up.  She knows I don't like those "friends" much but we left them in Cincy fortunately.  They did come visit us here and on a walking tour we walked by a Chick-Fil-A and the man felt compelled to go on for 15 minutes about how he'd never dine there.  OK, got it.

Just don't bother seeing Havana, no matter what anyone says.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2023, 06:01:53 AM

There is a reason people flee Cuba for Florida.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 06:32:40 AM

My wife was told once you get out of Havana, it gets nicer.  I'm sure they have some nice beaches etc., but generally, the capital city is nicer than the rest of the places.

Her "near commie friends" are very predictable, they simply mirror whatever story is consider "progressive" uncritically.  They are the ones who told me they were afraid of being deported by Trump because they are "Jewish".  I asked them if Trump would be deporting his daughter as well.  That stumped them.

I dunno, I just find this mode some combination of amusing and annoying and prefer to be away from it, all the predictable signaling is just boring.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2023, 06:53:10 AM

Because we have these two going on, 

(https://i.imgur.com/9JC4dA5.png)


This could happen.

What is the Fujiwhara Effect? (foxweather.com) (https://www.foxweather.com/learn/what-is-the-fujiwhara-effect)

Interesting stuff.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2023, 08:15:07 AM

I thought Brutus might be referring to the little Cuba area in south Florida 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2023, 08:20:54 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 29, 2023, 08:15:07 AM

I thought Brutus might be referring to the little Cuba area in south Florida

He was being a smartass.

It's not little and it's not just in S FL. It's everywhere in the State.

Good people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 09:10:36 AM

I'm surprised the learn that tropical depressions etc. can collide.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 29, 2023, 09:28:26 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 06:32:40 AM

Her "near commie friends" are very predictable, they simply mirror whatever story is consider "progressive" uncritically.  They are the ones who told me they were afraid of being deported by Trump because they are "Jewish".  I asked them if Trump would be deporting his daughter as well.  That stumped them.

How ironic considering that he let is dumbass son-in-law (happens to be jewish) run the country for four years.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2023, 09:40:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 09:10:36 AM

I'm surprised the learn that tropical depressions etc. can collide.

(https://i.imgur.com/0IIxqiV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 10:11:43 AM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 29, 2023, 09:28:26 AM

How ironic considering that he let is dumbass son-in-law (happens to be jewish) run the country for four years. 

They had no clue Trump's daughter had converted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: DunkingDan on September 29, 2023, 10:13:21 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/G0Fexhj.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on September 29, 2023, 10:18:45 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 29, 2023, 08:15:07 AM

I thought Brutus might be referring to the little Cuba area in south Florida

Some on this forum has spent some time there.


(https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-__1J7QVSGfk/TYnIRAm0NfI/AAAAAAAACw0/cd6UKH7uAiY/s1600/Orange_Bowl1.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2023, 10:44:57 AM

94 & 95 Orange bowls
I think 95 was the last one there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 11:43:43 AM

To avert climate catastrophe, the US needs to do more than Meatless Mondays  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4226458-to-avert-climate-catastrophe-the-us-needs-to-do-more-than-meatless-mondays/)

This is stupid, and I think VERY counter productive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 29, 2023, 12:39:40 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 11:43:43 AM

To avert climate catastrophe, the US needs to do more than Meatless Mondays  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4226458-to-avert-climate-catastrophe-the-us-needs-to-do-more-than-meatless-mondays/)

This is stupid, and I think VERY counter productive.

Honestly, I don't think it's stupid OR counter-productive. There are a lot of reasons, both health-related and climate-related, to reduce global meat consumption. 

But I'm still...


(https://media.tenor.com/JxGUOvDGdFcAAAAC/prudent-george-w-bush.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 12:47:13 PM

It's stupid because it can't happen, and it's counter productive because most 'normal' folks see it as the kind of extreme measure they don't want to hear about.

It's alienating folks who might support something rather more serious and practicble.

We had tens of millions of bison back in the day.  I've read they don't produce quite a much methane as beef cattle, OK, but it would still have been a lot.

Methane emissions from bison—An historic herd estimate for the North American Great Plains | Request PDF (researchgate.net) (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248350887_Methane_emissions_from_bison-An_historic_herd_estimate_for_the_North_American_Great_Plains#:~:text=They suggest that the 30,Kelliher %26 Clark%2C 2010) .)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 29, 2023, 12:59:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 12:47:13 PM

It's stupid because it can't happen, and it's counter productive because most 'normal' folks see it as the kind of extreme measure they don't want to hear about.

It's alienating folks who might support something rather more serious and practicble.

Ahh, got it. You're saying that the article and shaming people for eating meat is stupid and counterproductive. I do agree there. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2023, 01:06:13 PM

Sure, it's akin to writing how folks should not eat meat, should drive only an EV powered by their own PVs on the roof, not have children, etc.  All that could help if we all did it, but it's counterproductive to suggest it to folks.

An article might note that we should cut down on eating meat to the extent practicable, maybe eat LESS meat, OK, fine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2023, 08:26:29 AM

New Zealand grid | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/09/30/new-zealand-grid/#more-30549)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2023, 08:37:24 AM

Climate change is here. But so are climate solutions : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/10/02/1197590139/climate-change-solutions)

Hand waving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on October 02, 2023, 03:03:41 PM

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1708864874779123797?s=20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2023, 03:27:45 PM

Quote from: GopherRock on October 02, 2023, 03:03:41 PM

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1708864874779123797?s=20

The seasons generally seem to be changing. Before we left Chicago, it seemed like April was getting colder and October getting warmer. I'm curious what others might notice, anecdotally.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2023, 09:40:45 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on October 02, 2023, 03:03:41 PM

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1708864874779123797?s=20

I'm guessing very few are complaining

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2023, 09:43:24 AM

I do wonder about any heat island impacts on single T recordings.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 04, 2023, 09:17:38 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 03, 2023, 09:40:45 AM

I'm guessing very few are complaining

22 def F vs 15 deg F....Yay !  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2023, 10:39:11 AM

This one South of Mexico is expected to jump over into the Gulf and possibly get to be a named storm. The locals started watching this yesterday.

(https://i.imgur.com/ncRF1Nq.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/ev6nja8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 07, 2023, 12:49:12 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/ODq4GqE.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2023, 09:21:29 AM

This is nice.

(https://i.imgur.com/L7J6ps2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 15, 2023, 09:26:25 AM

my favorite time of year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2023, 09:36:39 AM

be a good time to visit down south

this is also nice,,,,,,,,,,,

(https://i.imgur.com/BkOLZX9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2023, 01:12:45 PM

I can never seem to get an accurate figure on this, but what is spent by the Feds to keep these navigable rivers open for shipping is mind-blowing. I think I once saw $70 Million per year for the Mississippi alone.

Add in the offshoots and the TVA and jeez, it's a lot.

I bet the difference would pay for shipping via rail, and then some, and do a lot for the environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2023, 06:31:00 PM

I'm guessing throwing 70 mill to Warren Buffet wouldn't handle all the barge traffic tonnage on the Mississippi

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Geolion91 on October 16, 2023, 09:14:20 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2023, 01:12:45 PM

I can never seem to get an accurate figure on this, but what is spent by the Feds to keep these navigable rivers open for shipping is mind-blowing. I think I once saw $70 Million per year for the Mississippi alone.

Add in the offshoots and the TVA and jeez, it's a lot.

I bet the difference would pay for shipping via rail, and then some, and do a lot for the environment.

I get what you’re saying, but TVA doesn’t handle navigation on the Tennessee River. The Corps of Engineers handles that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 16, 2023, 09:24:18 PM

$70 mil for the Mississip?  Sounds like a bargain to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2023, 08:32:37 AM

Quote from: Geolion91 on October 16, 2023, 09:14:20 PM

I get what you’re saying, but TVA doesn’t handle navigation on the Tennessee River. The Corps of Engineers handles that.

I know. I was talking about the system itself. We have the Mississippi system and the TVA system.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 17, 2023, 09:23:15 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2023, 09:36:39 AM

be a good time to visit down south

this is also nice,,,,,,,,,,,

(https://i.imgur.com/BkOLZX9.png)

Yikes, way too cold.  That's late January winter weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2023, 09:25:31 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 17, 2023, 09:23:15 AM

Yikes, way too cold.  That's late January winter weather.

We call it "pool cover" weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 17, 2023, 09:31:13 AM

we call it football weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Geolion91 on October 17, 2023, 04:02:27 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2023, 08:32:37 AM

I know. I was talking about the system itself. We have the Mississippi system and the TVA system.

On your original post, transportation by barge is incredibly more efficient than by train, at least for bulk commodities which make up the vast majority of barge traffic. Even including dredging expenses and fuel consumption. I don’t have the figures but the difference is significant. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2023, 07:46:45 AM

We don't have the numbers.

And yes, I'm biased. I'm against (almost) all dams and levees. They give a false sense of security to humans and are very bad for the environment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 24, 2023, 06:50:28 PM

Arctic sea ice: the canary in the coal mine | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/10/21/arctic-sea-ice-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/#more-30600)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 24, 2023, 09:37:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2023, 06:50:28 PM

Arctic sea ice: the canary in the coal mine | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/10/21/arctic-sea-ice-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/#more-30600)

when you least expect it he strikes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2023, 06:06:59 AM

The MSM coverage of such things is "interesting".  If some weather event is dramatic, they cover it, in spades, fine, but they rarely if ever go back and note "Hey, that was huge, but atypical, we're just not seeing a trend here."

So, the Arctic ice cap was melting and heading to disaster a few years ago.  Seen any news about that of late anywhere?

Hurricanes were projected to be numerous and devastating.  So, they cover the latest disastrous hurricane, fine, but don't add any context about longer term trends.  Droughts, same thing.  Heat waves, you name it.  They selectively cover the disasters without adding context.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2023, 08:08:45 AM

^^^

It's all part of the plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2023, 08:13:47 AM

I think "the plan" is to attract clicks and eyeballs and $$$.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 25, 2023, 09:13:13 AM

Speaking of hurricanes, Hurricane Otis in the Pacific just made landfall in Acapulco, Mexico as as completely unexpected Cat5, it blew up by 110 mph in less than 24 hours.

That's a pretty big city, around 1M people.  And they're up against the mountains, which are expected to turn into unstable mudslides, so there was really nowhere to go, even if they'd had much warning.

I expect today's pictures to be pretty rough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2023, 09:33:08 AM

I've never been. What would an evacuation look like? They had so little time.

Not much in the way of media coverage out there right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2023, 09:37:54 AM

Hurricane Otis makes landfall in Mexico as a Cat 5; Tammy eyes Bermuda (accuweather.com) (https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-otis-makes-landfall-in-mexico-as-a-cat-5-tammy-eyes-bermuda/1589684)

I don't know if it's related to the new coverage item above, but I seem to think Pacific hurricanes are more common today?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2023, 09:46:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 25, 2023, 09:37:54 AM

Hurricane Otis makes landfall in Mexico as a Cat 5; Tammy eyes Bermuda (accuweather.com) (https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-otis-makes-landfall-in-mexico-as-a-cat-5-tammy-eyes-bermuda/1589684)

I don't know if it's related to the new coverage item above, but I seem to think Pacific hurricanes are more common today?

Don't know that answer. There is not a reliable information out there on Eastern Pacific hurricanes prior to the 1980's or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 25, 2023, 10:46:10 AM

Some images coming in.

(https://i.imgur.com/hUEbGOR.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2023, 10:47:39 AM

I watched some cliff diving in Acapulco back 20+ years ago with the Ex-wife

we stayed at the hotel on the cliff - was quite something I'm glad I traveled for 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2023, 10:48:03 AM

Yikes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2023, 11:28:01 AM

Interesting stuff here.

climate.cmail19.com/t/d-e-vdtjdjy-iiirtykrjj-r/ (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-e-vdtjdjy-iiirtykrjj-r/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2023, 08:30:38 AM

Hurricane Otis’ explosive intensification is symptom of the climate crisis, scientists say | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/weather/hurricane-otis-rapid-intensification-climate/index.html)

Another pretty typical MSM item lacking context.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 26, 2023, 09:21:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2023, 08:30:38 AM

Hurricane Otis’ explosive intensification is symptom of the climate crisis, scientists say | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/weather/hurricane-otis-rapid-intensification-climate/index.html)

Another pretty typical MSM item lacking context.

Yup.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2023, 11:36:17 AM

27 dead from Otis. Sadly, that number will probably go up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 26, 2023, 11:59:38 AM

Just brutal, so little warning.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2023, 01:00:51 PM

Thankfully for Bermuda, Hurricane Tammy fizzled out in the Atlantic. There is nothing else out there right now. 

Hopefully the season is done, even though we technically have a little more than a month left.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2023, 01:02:44 PM

Old Farmers' Almanac 2024 Forecast: ‘Get Ready for a Winter Wonderland' (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/old-farmers-almanac-2024-forecast-get-ready-for-a-winter-wonderland/ar-AA1iTAqk?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=1ee7e9bbb7984fb195dd613ffdf2b90c&ei=12#image=4)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2023, 09:19:24 AM

Fall weather is usually awesome, and we have football.  

I remain fascinated that humans are attracted to colorful displays and travel to see the leaves changing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2023, 09:24:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 27, 2023, 09:19:24 AM

Fall weather is usually awesome, and we have football. 

I remain fascinated that humans are attracted to colorful displays and travel to see the leaves changing. 

Never did that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2023, 09:57:44 AM

Down here in Texico, "leaves changing" means they turn brown and crispy, dry up, and fall off. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2023, 10:12:27 AM

I don't have to travel to see the colors

29 degrees here this morning

Leaves will be coming down in bunches the next couple days
I may mulch them with the mower on Sunday

Climate in NW Iowa is changing - Fall to Winter
Big Ten Football weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2023, 10:23:07 AM

Yeah, I can look out my window and see "color".  But a lot of folks do travel this time of year.  It's just mildly interesting, same with waterfalls, "we" like to see waterfalls, and mountain views, and beaches, etc.

Scenery.

I'm thinking of taking the wife for an overnight at Amicalola Falls SP lodge soon anyway myself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2023, 10:27:33 AM

many folks enjoy the scene of the beach

looking at endless water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 27, 2023, 10:31:02 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 27, 2023, 09:19:24 AM

Fall weather is usually awesome, and we have football. 

I remain fascinated that humans are attracted to colorful displays and travel to see the leaves changing. 

Speak for yourself two Oaks and a Maple in my back yd and quite the variety in the park/woods behind my property.A little too much excersize removing the leafs though

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2023, 02:43:23 PM

Man, this Tammy creature just won't quit!!

(https://i.imgur.com/FnGm6PV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2023, 10:25:28 AM

Woke up and let the dog out, and based on the smell of smoke, something's on fire here in SoCal... Haven't figured out where yet though. Need some coffee in my system first. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2023, 10:30:20 AM

FWAC Wildfire Map - Current Wildfires, Forest Fires, and Lightning Strikes near you | Fire, Weather & Avalanche Center (fireweatheravalanche.org) (https://www.fireweatheravalanche.org/fire/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2023, 10:42:21 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2023, 10:30:20 AM

FWAC Wildfire Map - Current Wildfires, Forest Fires, and Lightning Strikes near you | Fire, Weather & Avalanche Center (fireweatheravalanche.org) (https://www.fireweatheravalanche.org/fire/)

Interesting. They don't show anything nearby enough that I would have thought it would generate smell here. But it was definitely more "wildfire" smell than "someone is having a bonfire" smell... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2023, 10:44:04 AM

There is one burning to your SE. Where is the wind coming from right now?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2023, 11:02:21 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2023, 10:44:04 AM

There is one burning to your SE. Where is the wind coming from right now?

Clicking on those they were listed at 0 acres as of reporting... That's a significant distance if they're that small... Doubt we'd get anything here even if the wind was heading this way. 

Prevailing wind is usually off the coast. But when the Santa Anas are blowing (I don't think they are) it can reverse and I believe it then comes from the northeast...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2023, 02:58:11 PM

Got some stuff going on out there all of a sudden.

(https://i.imgur.com/efYpShl.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2023, 03:16:18 PM

Whatever residual smoke I smelled this morning seems to have dissipated... So that's good news.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2023, 05:16:37 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/29/climate/white-hydrogen-fossil-fuels-climate/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2023, 07:56:22 AM

a breakthrough?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2023, 08:11:19 AM

It could be major, but I find most such news articles end up disappearing later on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2023, 07:43:03 AM

0°C, predicted low here tomorrow morning, which is like, you know, freezing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2023, 08:30:28 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/EcWPvCd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2023, 08:53:51 AM

teens here this morning

and still white stuff covering the ground

40s forecast for this week
50s for the weekend

not golfing weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 30, 2023, 12:19:53 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2023, 08:53:51 AM

teens here this morning

and still white stuff covering the ground

40s forecast for this week
50s for the weekend

not golfing weather

When you see that around here it means the cartels have moved in.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2023, 07:21:29 AM

Climate Change: A Curious Crisis | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/10/31/climate-change-a-curious-crisis/#more-30653)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2023, 07:34:19 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2023, 08:53:51 AM

teens here this morning

and still white stuff covering the ground

40s forecast for this week
50s for the weekend

not golfing weather

Well not teens but low '30s,forecast looks the same here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on November 01, 2023, 08:15:46 AM

It snowed in my neck of the woods last night. Got home around 8:30pm and there was a very light snow on the roads.  Still some hanging around on the roof and on my truck this morning. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 01, 2023, 09:27:10 AM

Headed up to Chicago tomorrow for a quick trip to see the grandkids. Thankfully it is projected to warm up for the weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2023, 09:31:56 AM

yup, might hit 60 here Sunday afternoon

might be the last round of golf at the Valley

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 01, 2023, 10:33:46 AM

In the Green-Steel Race, the Biggest Producers Are Laggards By Ed Ballard

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Green steelmaking is becoming a reality—just in the wrong places. Steel, crucial for everything from ships to apartment buildings, contributes 7% of global carbon emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. That mostly comes from blast furnaces that smelt iron ore with coke at above 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit to make iron. New alternatives to the centuries-old technology are emerging, aided by regulations, climate-tech investment and demand from buyers (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-h/) like auto and appliance makers that want to reduce the carbon emissions of their products. Steelmakers in Europe are embracing (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-k/) the new technologies. The problem is that China and India, by far the biggest builders of new steel plants, are still building the traditional, heavily polluting kind. In China alone, planned blast furnaces will have 160 million tons of combined annual capacity, according to a new report (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-u/) by researchers at Global Energy Monitor and the Leadership Group for Industry Transition. India is planning to add roughly 70 million tons of annual capacity, though much of that is in the early stages so there’s a greater chance some won’t materialize, according to Global Energy Monitor analyst Caitlin Swalec. The capacity of the new plants in China, which are largely replacements for existing ones, equates to roughly 16% of its 2022 production, according to the World Steel Association. They dwarf the green steel plants being added in Europe. “These blast furnaces are a block in the way of investment or research and development in these low-carbon technologies,” said Xinyi Shen, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think tank. China’s industrial giants are working on green-steel projects, responding to Beijing’s climate targets and international demand. HBIS, the sixth-largest steelmaker, has a plan (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-o/) to supply low-carbon steel to BMW, for instance, and it’s looking into various ways of cutting emissions. But those efforts look like a sideshow compared with a new generation of blast furnaces. These steel plants could operate for decades, similar to China’s wave of new coal plants (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-b/). The new steel and coal plants will make it hard for China to hit its target of becoming carbon neutral by 2060.  The downturn in China’s construction sector (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-n/), the world’s largest steel consumer, is weighing on global steel demand. Shen said new blast-furnace plans are driven less by demand forecasts than by government support and low-cost financing for job-creating infrastructure projects. Those efforts to keep people working amid amid the slowdown (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-p/) will have a long legacy. Capturing carbon from blast furnaces could offer a way to decarbonize them, but carbon-capture projects have faced technical problems (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-x/) and cost overruns. Several European green-steel projects will use hydrogen instead of coal, sidestepping the blast furnace (see the Data Point section lower down). These methods will likely cost more for years. Many experts think the real shift in Chinese steel production won’t rely on new technologies but will instead follow the pattern of the U.S., where steel is mostly made from scrap using electric-arc furnaces (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-m/). China too is entering the age of scrap as the buildings, bridges and cars of the boom years age (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-c/). It’s building electric-arc furnaces to handle it. Emissions from that process vary depending on where the electricity comes from, but it’s cleaner than making crude steel using a blast furnace. In the meantime, if Beijing eventually decides that new blast furnaces clash with its climate goals, one possibility is a financial hit down the line for the generally state-controlled banks that financed them. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that steel mills approved since 2020 (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-q/) represent $100 billion in assets that could be stranded by the energy transition.

Tell me what you think: Send your feedback and suggestions to ed.ballard@wsj.com (ed.ballard@wsj.com). And if somebody forwarded you this email, you can subscribe here (https://climate.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vdhjjuy-iiirtykrjj-a/).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2023, 06:38:47 AM

Climate: Scientists warn 2023 likely to be the hottest year on record (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/08/climate-scientists-warn-2023-likely-to-be-the-hottest-year-on-record.html)

My plan ...

1.  Throw a few billion out there.
2.  Have more meetings.
3.  Issue more proclamations about how bad it is and we need to DO "something".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2023, 07:30:40 AM

The world is planning to blow the fossil fuels production limit that would keep a lid on global heating, report says | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/08/climate/fossil-fuels-expansion-un-report-climate-intl/index.html)

More hand wringing.  Time for another meeting.


Global fossil fuel production in 2030 is set to be more than double the levels that are deemed consistent with meeting climate goals set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the United Nations and researchers said on Wednesday.

The United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) report, assessing the gap in fossil fuel production cuts and what’s needed to meet climate goals, comes ahead of the global COP 28 climate meeting, which starts on November 30 in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.

“Fossil fuel phase out is one of the pivotal issues that will be negotiated at COP 28,” Ploy Achakulwisut, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) scientist and a lead author of the report said in a press briefing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2023, 08:15:01 AM

Climate change: Countries’ emissions plans put the world ‘wildly off track’ to contain heating, UN assessment shows | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/climate/climate-pledges-ndcs-un-report/index.html)


In the latest clear evidence that the world remains [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]wildly off track (https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/world/un-global-climate-pledges-health/index.html)[/iurl] when it comes to tackling the [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]climate crisis[/color] (https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/us/national-climate-assessment-extreme-weather-costs/index.html), the UN has found that even if countries enact all of their current climate pledges, planet-heating pollution in 2030 will still be 9% higher than it was in 2010.[/font][/size][/color]
This reveals a stark gap between the course nations are charting and what science says is needed to avert the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world needs to decrease emissions by 45% by the end of this decade compared to 2010 to meet the internationally-agreed ambition of limiting [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/world/global-warming-breach-wmo-climate-intl/index.html)[/iurl] above pre-industrial levels. An increase of 9% means that target is way off.[/font][/size][/color]



We've known this for a decade, KNOWN this, and just now it's news?  Something is afoot here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2023, 08:23:01 AM

Stiell said these findings should catalyze bolder action at the UN’s upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai. “Every fraction of a degree matters, but we are severely off track,” he said. “COP28 is our time to change that.”

At COP28, countries will complete the global stocktake exercise, where they assess progress on climate action. The process is intended to feed into the next round of more ambitious national climate action plans due to be submitted to the UN in 2025.



Fret and complain and have another meeting to talk about it.  In Dubai, which is a pretty nice place to hold a meeting.  I think they also produce a lot of oil there.  The place is insanely wealthy.

My guess is some of these folks are serious about it, I suspect most are "along for the ride".  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2023, 08:29:24 AM

bolder action and more ambitious plans should fix it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2023, 08:37:54 AM

It reminds me so much of my work experiences it's funny.  I lean to thinking all of life is pretty similar because humans are pretty much the same, usually.  They prefer meetings and talk to action, they like to whine and complain, they like to claim someone else isn't doing enough, they like meetings in glamorous places, the like travel on someone else's dime.

I've told the story of a "training" event I was supposed to attend, week long, stay in a hotel, open bar every night, food included.  The "training" was by every account the usual silliness, a whole week of it.  I never went.  I couldn't stomach being around folks for that long.

I thought about showing up for the vacation part and ignoring the meeting part.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 14, 2023, 10:12:44 AM

Can't tell if you've always been this cynical or if I'm just now noticing it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2023, 10:30:27 AM

I'm pretty cynical about a lot of things.  This I suppose is a kind of pet peave of mine.

It's so predictable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2023, 10:43:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 14, 2023, 08:23:01 AM

My guess is some of these folks are serious about it, I suspect most are "along for the ride". 

On a private jet, no doubt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 14, 2023, 11:00:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2023, 10:43:11 AM

On a private jet, no doubt.

Lolz, ever heard Bill Gates' answer when he was asked about constantly being on a private jet while constantly lecturing everyone about the environment?  Priceless, and very telling.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2023, 11:05:12 AM

He's buying up farmland and not farming it.

He wants us to eat bugs for protein.

A real leader steps up to the plate.

You're up, Bill.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2023, 11:21:39 AM

I don't worry as much about the obvious hypocrites, we always have them.  I am concerned with the "throw money at it" without any plan issue, and when that doesn't work, the solution is to throw more money at it.

Sounds like education.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2023, 06:08:32 PM

The National Climate Assessment, which comes out every four to five years, was released Tuesday with details that bring climate change’s impacts down to a local level. Unveiling the report at the White House, President Joe Biden blasted Republican legislators and his predecessor for disputing global warming.

“Anyone who willfully denies the impact of climate change is condemning the American people to a very dangerous future. Impacts are only going to get worse, more frequent, more ferocious and more costly,” Biden said, noting that disasters cost the country $178 billion last year. “None of this is inevitable.”


Overall, Tuesday’s assessment paints a picture of a country warming about 60% faster than the world as a whole, one that regularly gets smacked with costly weather disasters and faces even bigger problems in the future.

https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-future-warming-disasters-america-a419265bb733adcb7c62b4111028aa0c (https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-future-warming-disasters-america-a419265bb733adcb7c62b4111028aa0c)

Since 1970, the Lower 48 states have warmed by 2.5 degrees (1.4 degrees Celsius) and Alaska has heated up by 4.2 degrees (2.3 degrees Celsius), compared to the global average of 1.7 degrees (0.9 degrees Celsius), the report said. But what people really feel is not the averages, but when weather is extreme.

With heat waves, drought, wildfire and heavy downpours, “we are seeing an acceleration of the impacts of climate change in the United States,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 06:23:39 AM

Disasters are not inevitable?  Who knew?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2023, 08:11:56 AM

Wildfires have nothing to do with climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 08:18:45 AM

Obviously, we never had them, or hurricanes, or tornados, or droughts, before climate change, apparently.

This is a recurring trend in reporting, and claims by politicians.  "We're not DOING ENOUGH!!!!"  Disaster awaits."

A realistic treatment of the topic is tough to find.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 10:00:14 AM

US, China agree to bolster renewables in effort to replace fossil fuels  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4310802-us-china-renewables-fossil-fuels-climate-change/)

Malarkey.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 15, 2023, 10:13:21 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 14, 2023, 06:08:32 PM

The National Climate Assessment, which comes out every four to five years, was released Tuesday with details that bring climate change’s impacts down to a local level. Unveiling the report at the White House, President Joe Biden blasted Republican legislators and his predecessor for disputing global warming.

“Anyone who willfully denies the impact of climate change is condemning the American people to a very dangerous future. Impacts are only going to get worse, more frequent, more ferocious and more costly,” Biden said, noting that disasters cost the country $178 billion last year. “None of this is inevitable.”

What blisterhead Brandon and whom ever is pulling his strings ignores is Russia/China/India are not doing a damn thing. And going forward with his policies just lines their pockets and other failed faffers like  Kerry and Gore who BTW as of two yrs ago didn't have solar panels and still flew private Jets. Kerry a previous failed flip-flopper said it was his wife's.Of course he had no comeback when asked why he isn't lecturing her instead of the 99% of Americans who don't have their own wings parked in the garage 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 11:00:04 AM

China and India agreed to start cutting back in 2030, so it's in their interest to generate as much CO2 now to set a high baseline.  Of course, if  they don't in fact cut in 2030, there is no penalty.  Any country can commit to X and then ignore X all they want.

It's just TALK, though some will throw a lot of money at the problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 15, 2023, 11:01:25 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on November 15, 2023, 10:13:21 AM

What blisterhead Brandon and whom ever is pulling his strings ignores is Russia/China/India are not doing a damn thing.

Not sure if you've noticed... America/Europe are not doing a damn thing either. We're talking about what we should do, but we're not actually doing it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 15, 2023, 11:02:12 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 14, 2023, 06:08:32 PM

“Anyone who willfully denies the impact of climate change is condemning the American people to a very dangerous future. Impacts are only going to get worse, more frequent, more ferocious and more costly,” Biden said, noting that disasters cost the country $178 billion last year. “None of this is inevitable.”

I mean....still better than the tens of trillions of dollars the Green New Deal would cost.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 11:04:03 AM

There really is no "Green New Deal".  It was a vague resolution meaning squat, which is pretty typical.

The "Inflation Reduction Act" puts $37 billion a year into "this" stuff, which is a pittance of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 15, 2023, 11:19:04 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 11:04:03 AM

There really is no "Green New Deal".  It was a vague resolution meaning squat, which is pretty typical.

The "Inflation Reduction Act" puts $37 billion a year into "this" stuff, which is a pittance of course.

And? 

My math is still correct, inasmuch as no one I'm aware of assessed any version of GND resolutions to cost less than multiple trillions.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 11:40:19 AM

It's hard to cost out a "resolution" to "do good".  It had no specifics in it at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 15, 2023, 12:02:02 PM

And as I remember it, any discussion of a "green new deal" included things that FAR exceeded a scope of being environmentally-related. It was pretty much a smorgasbord of everything desired  in both democratic socialism and environmentalism. 

Which incidentally is why any discussions that talked about the price tag were so high. Because the scope was "let's do EVERYTHING we want to do all at once and call it the Green New Deal."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 12:09:00 PM

According to The Washington Post (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Post) (February 11, 2019), the resolution called for a "10-year national mobilization" whose primary goals would be:^{[88] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_New_Deal#cite_note-Content-88)}

Quote

"Guaranteeing a job with a family-sustaining wage, adequate family and medical leave, paid vacations, and retirement security to all people of the United States.""Providing all people of the United States with – (i) high-quality health care; (ii) affordable, safe, and adequate housing; (iii) economic security; and (iv) access to clean water, clean air, healthy and affordable food, and nature.""Providing resources, training, and high-quality education, including higher education, to all people of the United States.""Meeting 100 percent of the power demand in the United States through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources.""Repairing and upgrading the infrastructure in the United States, including . . . by eliminating pollution and greenhouse gas emissions as much as technologically feasible.""Building or upgrading to energy-efficient, distributed, and 'smart' power grids, and working to ensure affordable access to electricity.""Upgrading all existing buildings in the United States and building new buildings to achieve maximal energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability, including through electrification.""Overhauling transportation systems in the United States to eliminate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector as much as is technologically feasible, including through investment in – (i) zero-emission vehicle infrastructure and manufacturing; (ii) clean, affordable, and accessible public transportation; and (iii) high-speed rail.""Spurring massive growth in clean manufacturing in the United States and removing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from manufacturing and industry as much as is technologically feasible.""Working collaboratively with farmers and ranchers in the United States to eliminate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector as much as is technologically feasible."[89] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_New_Deal#cite_note-89)

It was all about "goals", not a thing about how to do it, or even appropriate monies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 15, 2023, 12:39:01 PM

I understand that.

My point remains.

After 651 pages, have we not figured anything out yet?  Despite the resident cynics' views that nobody really knows anything and anybody who says they do is scamming us, I think there's ample evidence at this point from valid research to make some rough principles and guidelines from which to begin moving in directions that make sense.


Very roughly:
1)  climate change is real
2)  it's still unclear the extent to which human activity is causing it, but increasingly clear that human activity has some effect
3)  the consequences are not doomsday scenarios
4)  "we" (governments, probably) can make some small, meaningful changes that help mitigate consequences
5)  most people (government types) aren't talking/don't want to talk about them
6)  the things they are trying to drum up support for are economically disastrous and literally deadly, most often to the poor
7)  people who obfuscate this appear to mainly be trying to increase government control in various sectors
8)  I have little use for those people

#8 is very important.  Believe that nobody really knows what's going on or any ways to move forward if you like....me, I'm rolling hard with 4, 5, and 8.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 01:07:56 PM

Excellent summary.  We're all for a clean environment, we know humans tend to make things worse.  I'm open to "solutions", entirely open, but I'd like to know what they will cost and how much good they will do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 15, 2023, 01:24:58 PM

Note that not everything has to be done by a government. There is a group called the Science Based Targets Initiative that takes and monitors pledges from companies to align their emissions with the 1.5C goal.

https://sciencebasedtargets.org/companies-taking-action#dashboard

You can search by company. utee's employer is on there, as is mine. 

And it's not just some hand-waving BS. You publicly commit to your target, it must be approved, and then you report your progress periodically to show that you're actually doing it. 

And I can say that several of our largest customers are pushing HARD on us to meet our targets because as they buy our products (and inherent the embodied emissions in what we sell them), our progress helps them meet their targets. 

So even though we (as a global society) are not doing enough, there ARE people who are actually doing something. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 01:30:42 PM

I'm sure companies see some great PR benefits in this.  I was peripherally involved in something akin to this way back in the day, the company made all these public statements of what they were going to do, reported on it 3-4 years, and then it all disappeared.  This related to municipal solid waste reductions.  Y'all may recall that "crisis" ca. 1990, the landfills were all full, or so they said.  (They weren't.)

Companies do spend a lot on PR.  Maybe this is more than that, I don't know of course, but my GUESS is the actual impact on climate change is infinitestimal.  The BIG sources of CO2 are transportation and electricity generation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2023, 01:39:05 PM

I'd rely on the private sector MUCH more than I would the Government. And the later can take their mandates and shove them up their collective asses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 15, 2023, 01:46:49 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 15, 2023, 01:24:58 PM

Note that not everything has to be done by a government. There is a group called the Science Based Targets Initiative that takes and monitors pledges from companies to align their emissions with the 1.5C goal.

I know, and honestly I'd rather things not be done by governments, but rather by private citizens and companies.  But it seems like so much of the stuff I see companies virtue-signaling about is a blatant pander for a better ESG score, which involves so much other crap I don't agree with or find useful that it's hard to believe they're actually doing anything I'd be in favor of.

Obviously I don't know what all, or most, companies are actually doing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 01:51:50 PM

It made for some interesting work for 2 years or so, and several useless patents.  Other companies were doing the same.  It all ended up a big nothing.

We had these 1 liter bottles of stuff in the fridge taking up space, and it would cost a ton to dispose of them as waste.  Finally, the company we were working with asked if we had a liter they could have for some other work, and we mailed all of them.  My buddy had talked about putting them in his gas tank.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 05:39:00 PM

Net-Zero Targets: Sustainable Future or CO2 Obsession Driven Dead-end? | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/11/14/net-zero-targets-sustainable-future-or-co2-obsession-driven-dead-end/)

Intermittent energy sources such as solar and wind will not be able to replace the firm (dispatchable) power generation from fossil fuels without massive energy storage on the order of several months worth of energy consumption. In the absence of such energy storage technology, one has to conclude that renewables are not viable alternative to fossil fuels. Only nuclear energy is a viable “stock limited” resource where the stocks are much larger than the jack pot from fossil fuels.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 16, 2023, 10:39:52 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 05:39:00 PM

Net-Zero Targets: Sustainable Future or CO2 Obsession Driven Dead-end? | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/11/14/net-zero-targets-sustainable-future-or-co2-obsession-driven-dead-end/)

Intermittent energy sources such as solar and wind will not be able to replace the firm (dispatchable) power generation from fossil fuels without massive energy storage on the order of several months worth of energy consumption. In the absence of such energy storage technology, one has to conclude that renewables are not viable alternative to fossil fuels. Only nuclear energy is a viable “stock limited” resource where the stocks are much larger than the jack pot from fossil fuels.

You'd think that Texas energy crisis a couple of winters ago would've driven that point home.  Amazingly, "they" were able to make the narrative that it illustrated the dire need for renewable sources, when in fact it was precisely renewables that got us in that pickle.  "They" are far, far better at messaging and marketing.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 08:34:05 AM

Many corporations promote ‘net zero’ while lobbying for weaker climate action: Report | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4313429-many-corporations-promote-net-zero-while-lobbying-for-weaker-climate-action-report/)

Many of America’s leading corporations are quietly lobbying against policies to slow planetary heating — even as they tout their own environmental policies, according to a new report (https://influencemap.org/briefing/The-State-of-Net-Zero-Greenwash-24402) by the nonpartisan research group InfluenceMap.

The report found that 93 percent of American companies make the claim that they aim to achieve “net zero” climate effects, but they are only “weakly” aligned with the policies those companies and their trade groups actually promote.



Yeah, I'm cynical about any PR from companies.  Any company.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 08:35:22 AM

True climate progress, the U.N. argued, requires companies to both make good faith efforts to track, trace and reduce their burning of fossil fuel in absolute terms, not just relative ones.
Even if companies sincerely try to do this, it’s an uphill battle — given that technologies for accounting for carbon dioxide emissions, let alone trapping the gas, are in their infancy.
And many companies, the head of the U.N. warned last year, are not making a good faith effort (https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2022-11-08/secretary-generals-remarks-launch-of-report-of-high-level-expert-group-net-zero-commitments-delivered). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2023, 09:27:17 AM

What is a U.N.?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2023, 10:55:51 AM

Can 'Extreme' 800-Mile Ocean Pump Save the Great Salt Lake? (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/can-extreme-800-mile-ocean-pump-save-the-great-salt-lake/ar-AA1k5mLs?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=0d2f32d4d9c242bb942cffebef54bca2&ei=9)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 12:51:54 PM

Fed Chair Powell is ignoring the greatest threat to our economy: climate risk | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4312991-fed-chair-powell-is-ignoring-the-greatest-threat-to-our-economy-climate-risk/)

This, to me, is just dumb, the editorial.  And this guy claims to be some professor.  This is twaddle on many levels.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2023, 12:55:00 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 12:51:54 PM

Fed Chair Powell is ignoring the greatest threat to our economy: climate risk | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4312991-fed-chair-powell-is-ignoring-the-greatest-threat-to-our-economy-climate-risk/)

This, to me, is just dumb, the editorial.  And this guy claims to be some professor.  This is twaddle on many levels.

Jennie C. Stephens is a feminist, scholar-activist, writer, social-justice advocate and collaborator.

JENNIE C. STEPHENS (jenniecstephens.com) (https://www.jenniecstephens.com/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 12:59:07 PM

I'm a bit disappointed a fairly reputable site would publish her "thoughts" on such a bizarre notion.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2023, 01:05:53 PM

I'm rather curious on her stances when it comes to being a feminist and a social justice advocate. Some of those streams cross.

Story for another topic, however - and best left elsewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 02:24:58 PM

A bad recipe for science | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/11/17/a-bad-recipe-for-science/#more-30711)

what is going on represents more than politically motivated consensus enforcement and cancel culture. Climate change has become a secular religion, rife with dogma, heretics and moral-tribal communities. The secular religion of climate change raises concerns that are far more fundamental than the risks of bad policy.  At risk is the fundamental virtues of the Scientific Revolution and the freedom to question authority.

The road ahead requires moving away from the consensus-enforcing and cancel culture approach of restricting dialogue surrounding complex societal issues such as climate change. We need to open up space for dissent and disagreement.  By acknowledging scientific uncertainties in the context of better risk management and decision- making frameworks, in combination with techno-optimism, there is a broad path forward for humanity to thrive in the twenty-first century and beyond.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2023, 05:12:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 12:51:54 PM

This, to me, is just dumb, the editorial.  And this guy claims to be some professor.  This is twaddle on many levels.

have you sat down with many profs?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2023, 05:15:30 PM

Yes, yes I have.  I’d opine most are quite smart.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2023, 05:17:25 PM

you obviously run in different circles than I

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2023, 05:54:52 AM

I would bet there is a difference depending on field, STEM vs not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2023, 06:12:04 AM

There is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2023, 06:17:25 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 17, 2023, 05:12:45 PM

have you sat down with many profs?

Bookies and bartenders are much better informed with a better perspective on the economical/social happenings

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on November 18, 2023, 06:17:25 AM

Bookies and bartenders are much better informed with a better perspective on the economical/social happenings

Yep.

(https://i.imgur.com/PsIZZ1i.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2023, 06:34:50 AM

Global warming might not happen quite as fast as we thought – here’s why (telegraph.co.uk) (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/17/plants-absorb-carbon-dioxide-photosynthesis-trinity-college/)


Plants can adjust to rising temperatures and will absorb more CO2 in future (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/plants-can-adjust-to-rising-temperatures-and-will-absorb-more-co2-in-future/ar-AA1k6q60)


Science, actually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2023, 06:40:30 AM

Soils or plants will absorb more CO2 as carbon levels rise—but not both (phys.org) (https://phys.org/news/2021-03-soils-absorb-co2-carbon-risebut.html)

The real answer is "We don't know".

And I'd say anything reported in the "news" media is often not science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2023, 06:47:34 AM

The author is the science editor at the telegraph, and the research was done by scientists from universities in Ireland and Australia.

The research is published here.

Higher global gross primary productivity under future climate with more advanced representations of photosynthesis | Science Advances (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh9444)

Science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2023, 07:17:17 AM

There are exceptions, but USUALLY in my experience they leave out contrasting views and other perspectives.  They present a thing as a "done deal" when in fact it's really fairly speculative, hence the use of the term "may" or "might".

These various climate reports nearly always fail to account for the incredible complexity of climate science and our lack of knowledge in being able to predict much of anything.

It's like a report based on "Michigan insiders".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2023, 07:22:21 AM

Did you read the study?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2023, 07:25:11 AM

Nope.  Not yet.  I am speaking generally, not about that study.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2023, 07:27:17 AM

We used the RCP8.5 climate scenario to conduct factorial model simulations characterizing the individual and combined effects of the three mechanisms on projections of GPP.


From the summary, that is a yellow flag for me, the RCP8.5 is widely considered to be very wrong.

Then there is this:

 Our results suggest that current TBMs underestimate GPP responses to future CO₂ and climate conditions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2023, 08:27:15 AM

that's a suggestion

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2023, 08:29:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2023, 05:54:52 AM

I would bet there is a difference depending on field, STEM vs not.

I'm betting on your side

but, many profs of all disciplines don't get out in the real world much

very intelligent regarding their specific discipline, not so much on other areas
the challenge when a person is very intelligent is staying in their lane

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2023, 08:35:13 AM

I knew some pretty quirky professors who I at times wondered if they could really survive on their own in the world.  But most I knew are pretty sensible types.

I got to know my "boss" at UNC quite well over the years, he was pretty normal, great basketball player, and he built his own furniture and brewed his own beer.

I knew John Swenton at Ohio State pretty well, he was quite normal overall, smart guy.  My neighbor has some weird things about him, but he's fairly normal, for a physicist.  Sort of, usually.  He's deep into photography, but he visits very strange places at times.  He's off to Ghana soon.

I got to know others at UNC pretty well, more casually of course, I didn't hang out with them.  Ernest Eliel was on my committee, he was a pretty neat guy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2023, 01:28:52 PM

Coastal towns can't ignore a new climate change report about rising sea levels (msnbc.com) (https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/united-nations-climate-glacier-melt-sea-levels-rise-rcna125790)

More breathless and very irresponsible reporting, which isn't a shock.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 20, 2023, 01:48:53 PM

I keep a running list of US politicians who chatter incessantly about climate change causing coastal erosion and what a major, impending problem it is....and have also bought homes along the Florida coast. 

These same people usually also don't have anything good to say about the sociopolitical environment of Florida. 

I hope they have good insurance for when their fancy homes are inevitably flooded and washed away.  It's very noble of them to purchase those properties so that poor, unsuspecting low-information troglodytes don't foolishly wind up with them.  We should volunteer to pay more taxes and increase their salaries, the least we can do for jumping on those grenades for us.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2023, 02:08:53 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 20, 2023, 01:48:53 PM

I keep a running list of US politicians who chatter incessantly about climate change causing coastal erosion and what a major, impending problem it is....and have also bought homes along the Florida coast. 

These same people usually also don't have anything good to say about the sociopolitical environment of Florida. 

I hope they have good insurance for when their fancy homes are inevitably flooded and washed away.  It's very noble of them to purchase those properties so that poor, unsuspecting low-information troglodytes don't foolishly wind up with them.  We should volunteer to pay more taxes and increase their salaries, the least we can do for jumping on those grenades for us. 

Please share. If not here, PM me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2023, 02:58:30 PM

The median projection for sea level rise by 2100 is one meter, which isn't good of course, but neither is it 40 feet.

We can build more dikes.:)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2023, 01:13:47 PM

UN: World on track to double warming limit this century | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4318867-un-world-on-track-to-double-warming-limit-this-century/)

More of the same, time for another meeting at some resort.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2023, 06:33:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2023, 02:58:30 PM

The median projection for sea level rise by 2100 is one meter, which isn't good of course, but neither is it 40 feet.

We can build more dikes.:)

Delaware's average altitude is about 60 feet above sea level, which is the lowest average of any state.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 21, 2023, 06:49:42 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAy2yBEwbV8

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2023, 12:11:27 PM

Fossil fuel industry keys in on unproven recycling methods to prop up plastics | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4322021-fossil-fuel-industry-recycling-plastics/)

The army of fossil fuel and petrochemical representatives also outnumbered independent scientists 4 to 1 and outnumbered the collective delegations of the 70 smallest countries put together.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2023, 10:31:39 AM

How climate change got sucked into the culture wars | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/23/climate/climate-culture-wars-europe-us-int/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2023, 11:21:31 AM

CNN did their part

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2023, 11:32:10 AM

I think it may have really started with Al Gore's "movie".  Now we have a schism, any conservative can hardly think CC is a problem, and any liberal has to.  It's clearly partisan, when it should be technical.

I think the technical parts are just too complex and myriad for casual voters, it is for me anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 27, 2023, 01:19:06 PM

US production of planet-heating fuels hits record levels  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4329143-us-production-of-planet-heating-fuels-hits-record-levels/)

Another article highlighting what I've been saying, governments say one thing, and clearly are DOING something very different.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 27, 2023, 01:28:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2023, 01:19:06 PM

US production of planet-heating fuels hits record levels  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4329143-us-production-of-planet-heating-fuels-hits-record-levels/)

Another article highlighting what I've been saying, governments say one thing, and clearly are DOING something very different.

I'm shocked.  Shocked, I tell you.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 28, 2023, 07:16:45 AM

Yeah, we're going to see reported a continuous string of:

1.  How bad it is.
2.  How bad it will be.
3.  How we're not meeting the requirements to stop it.
4.  How we need more meetings to talk about it.
5.  More agreements, to be followed by not meeting the promised actions.

Reality does not care.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 28, 2023, 10:31:06 AM

Yeah, OK.

UN set to call on America to reduce its meat consumption (foxnews.com) (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/united-nations-set-call-americans-reduce-meat-consumption)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 28, 2023, 10:59:23 AM

https://youtu.be/Fam-gBBINiY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 28, 2023, 11:01:45 AM

Exactly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 28, 2023, 11:30:27 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 28, 2023, 07:16:45 AM

Yeah, we're going to see reported a continuous string of:

1.  How bad it is.
2.  How bad it will be.
3.  How we're not meeting the requirements to stop it.
4.  How we need more meetings to talk about it.
5.  More agreements, to be followed by not meeting the promised actions.

Reality does not care.

Don't forget "how we need to expand government regulation/control," which is what most of it is about.  Meanwhile, there are actual researchers trying to put a finger on the problem and spitball potential solutions.  Nobody cares what they have to say, tho.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on November 28, 2023, 11:42:39 AM

I absolutely love those commercials from the Beef Council, brilliant marketing.  It doesn't hurt that Aaron Copland knew how to write a tune.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhxhiffTFwE

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 28, 2023, 04:05:57 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 21, 2023, 06:33:03 PM

Delaware's average altitude is about 60 feet above sea level, which is the lowest average of any state.

I'd argue that my county is larger than Deleware, and nowhere in my county is above 60 ft. I'd wager most of my county is 30-40 ft, some may be as high as 40-50 ft, and there is a lot of marshland and beach front that is about ~2-5 ft MSL.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 28, 2023, 04:11:27 PM

dude, yer DOOMED

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2023, 11:30:55 AM

This was good for the most part. Idalia hurt Florida really bad though.

2023 hurricane season: Least impactful for US in nearly a decade (foxweather.com) (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/hurricane-season-2023-summary-recap)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2023, 11:49:38 AM

2023 hurricane season ends after delivering storms Harold, Idalia and Ophelia amid a strengthening El Niño | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/30/weather/hurricane-season-el-nino-climate/index.html)

All a matter of cherry picking.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ends on Thursday as one of the busiest on record, with a twist: Most of its storms veered into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
But with El Niño expected to end next year and global temperatures on the rise, forecasters say there’s “high potential” for an even more active hurricane season in 2024 and uncertainty around what that could mean for the United States.
[color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]Record-high ocean temperatures (https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/world/ocean-heat-temperature-record-climate/index.html#:~:text=Global ocean temperatures soared to the highest level on record this)[/iurl] this season ushered in above-average tropical activity and neutralized the effectiveness of a strengthening [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]El Niño[/color] (https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/14/weather/what-is-el-nino-xpn/index.html), which typically inhibits storm development in the Atlantic by ripping them apart with hostile upper level winds.[/font][/size][/color]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2023, 12:16:39 PM

Lots of fish storms this year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2023, 12:40:25 PM

We were pretty down on rainfall this year. My area was about 6" shy of normal.

Other areas, like Naples, were 24" down! That's huge.

Starting to see more and more articles like these:

Water restrictions beginning in the City of Sanibel (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/11/30/water-restrictions-beginning-city-sanibel/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2023-11-30-Breaking)

Water shortage declared in portions of Cape Coral and unincorporated portions of Lee County (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2023/11/28/water-shortage-cape-coral-lee-county-portions/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2023, 12:40:49 PM

200 Republicans press for language in funding bill to bar Biden EV rule | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4335620-republicans-press-epa-funding-bill-bar-biden-electric-vehicle-rule/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2023, 09:38:33 AM

Allowing shale fracking in upstate New York might have mitigated the gas supply shortage at the margin, but former Andrew Cuomo blocked that. The climate lobby’s antidote is electric heat pumps, but that would have increased strain on an already stressed grid. If New York City relied mostly on electricity for heat, millions could have lost both power and heat during the arctic blast. How’s that for a zombie apocalypse?

The New York Independent System Operator reported this week that the Empire State would need to rely on power plants that can switch to burning oil during the winter into the next decade owing to gas shortages and lulls in offshore wind. Another problem: “EV charging load is higher on colder days due to reduced battery efficiency and reduced EV range in cold temperature.”
You’d think all this would be news given the growing risks of grid failure, but such talk is taboo among those who want the U.S. economy to run solely on electricity driven by wind and solar energy. Don’t say New Yorkers weren’t warned.


New York’s Near Zombie Apocalypse - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/ferc-report-winter-storm-elliott-new-york-power-grid-con-edison-f10a0949?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR3uBBdJbfEM76T9wCSI1OoBgpz8Gf-FP9qUP0DfGGC7tn-695_y3DQod3Y)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2023, 05:57:09 AM

Amidst a "conversation" with some lady on line who insists we have to "DO SOMETHING" and quit using fossil fuels.  I guess I poked about about having a plan and she went quasi-ballistic on me saying I didn't want to DO anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2023, 07:51:00 AM

was her name, Karen??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2023, 07:52:14 AM

FACT OF THE DAY:

Scientists believe global warming could affect autumn colors. As the world warms, leaves may delay changing their colors. Additionally, trees may not use their sugars to create red pigments; rather, they might send that fuel to growing new twigs. Global warming may also alter the habitats of trees, such as the sugar maple, which creates some of the most vibrant fall colors. Provided by FactRetriever.com

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2023, 09:09:14 AM

I believe they could or might not....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 02, 2023, 11:24:11 AM

A lot of people may overcook their burgers today but that's not all, some of them may do so using natural gas and that excess carbon may contribute to climate change.

So, don't go past medium people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2023, 11:27:01 AM

cook ALL yer food on an electric appliance

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2023, 11:29:06 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on December 02, 2023, 11:24:11 AM

A lot of people may overcook their burgers today but that's not all, some of them may do so using natural gas and that excess carbon may contribute to climate change.

So, don't go past medium people.

I always go just past medium on my burgers. No pink.

I'm the problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2023, 11:34:23 AM

probably cover those overdone black biscuits in ketchup

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 03, 2023, 05:51:44 AM

Humans expel CO2 faster when they exercise ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2023, 08:30:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 03, 2023, 05:51:44 AM

Humans expel CO2 faster when they exercise ...

So THAT'S why we had less emissions during Covid!!

All the gyms were closed in draconian states!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 04, 2023, 09:14:52 AM

Germany Gets Honest About What Net Zero Will Cost - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-gets-honest-about-what-net-zero-will-cost-energy-climate-prices-economy-145430ac?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR0Jzicbv8np75RiYDLE2kVzWPnz0RAlSxpnNidnYqX3j5uQRbiwTbT9yGg)

 Nearly two decades into an epochal energy transformation, the project now known as “net zero” is an enormous flop. Renewable power hasn’t been capable of reliably meeting the energy needs of any advanced industrial economy, and certainly hasn’t been able to replace the nuclear capacity Berlin took off line starting in 2011. The disruption of cheap imports of Russian fossil fuels since last year’s Ukraine invasion has made matters considerably worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 07:13:30 AM

Food is finally on the table at COP. But will it serve the climate solutions we need? | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/4342000-food-is-finally-on-the-table-at-cop-but-will-it-serve-the-climate-solutions-we-need/)

This person seems to like debating various terms, of course, with zero specificity about actions to be taken.

blah blah blah

When you have an insoluble problem, hold a meeting and talk it to death, and then agree to have another meeting later.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2023, 08:17:54 AM

Man Instantly Promoted To Manager After Scheduling 3 Unnecessary Meetings In One Day | Babylon Bee (https://babylonbee.com/news/man-instantly-promoted-to-manager-after-scheduling-3-unnecessary-meetings-in-one-day)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 05, 2023, 08:38:25 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2023, 11:27:01 AM

cook ALL yer food on an electric appliance

While you're at it put the car on charge too

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 05, 2023, 08:41:31 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 04, 2023, 09:14:52 AM

Germany Gets Honest About What Net Zero Will Cost - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-gets-honest-about-what-net-zero-will-cost-energy-climate-prices-economy-145430ac?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR0Jzicbv8np75RiYDLE2kVzWPnz0RAlSxpnNidnYqX3j5uQRbiwTbT9yGg)

Nearly two decades into an epochal energy transformation, the project now known as “net zero” is an enormous flop. Renewable power hasn’t been capable of reliably meeting the energy needs of any advanced industrial economy, and certainly hasn’t been able to replace the nuclear capacity Berlin took off line starting in 2011. The disruption of cheap imports of Russian fossil fuels since last year’s Ukraine invasion has made matters considerably worse.

Wonder if Gore,Greta,Kerry and the rest of the agenda pushing canards will take that into account

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 09:00:02 AM

Not a chance. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 02:25:58 PM

Amongst the range of things I know something about, nuclear energy is absent.  Anybody know enough about it to answer a couple of questions I have?

Specifically, my understanding is nuclear power would be cheap and plenteous.  The cons seems to be disposal of waste, or something like that.  I guess there's always the threat of plant meltdowns and another Chernobyl.  I've seen responses along the lines of "waste can be managed and the downside mitigated" (how?) and "Chernobyl was due to cheap parts and human error that we can safeguard now with better technology." 

I guess my question is, how accurate is any of that?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 02:50:36 PM

Reasonably accurate, though the cost in practical terms  is quite high relatively speaking today.  A lot of this is the paperwork part of course.  Vogtle 3 and 4 are cases in point, way way late and way over cost est.

What some countries have done, like France, is standardize reactor design, so they don't have to get approval for each one.  In the US, each one is new (aside from pairs), so they undergo laborious licensing and inspections.  The waste thing is a nonissue, really, in technical terms.  France deals with it by reprocessing spent fuel,  the US does not.

The possible future is Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) that could power say a town, or factory complex.  They are SAID to be cheaper and safer etc. etc. etc.

The Holy Grail in all of this is nuclear fusion power reactors, which is quipped to be "The energy of the future, and always will be."  Some recent developments look promising, a bit, but I wouldn't hold out on a real fusion power reactor existing anywhere until 2070, if then.  They need a couple real breakthroughs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 03:21:56 PM

For us troglodytes, what is the difference in current nuclear power and nuclear fusion power?  And is nuclear energy in its current form appreciably "cleaner" than electric?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 03:26:50 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 03:21:56 PM

For us troglodytes, what is the difference in current nuclear power and nuclear fusion power?  And is nuclear energy in its current form appreciably "cleaner" than electric? 

The current power reactors use nuclear FISSION, based on a heavy element (uranium) that can be split, a process that releases heat energy.  Think A bomb.

Fusion is the reverse, it uses a very light element and fuses atoms together, a process which also releases heat energy.  Think H bomb.

Fusion produces less radioactivity and waste, in theory, and would be much cheaper, in theory, as the nuclear "fuel" is very abundant.  This is the power source for the Sun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Hawkinole on December 05, 2023, 03:27:47 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 02:25:58 PM

Amongst the range of things I know something about, nuclear energy is absent.  Anybody know enough about it to answer a couple of questions I have?

Specifically, my understanding is nuclear power would be cheap and plenteous.  The cons seems to be disposal of waste, or something like that.  I guess there's always the threat of plant meltdowns and another Chernobyl.  I've seen responses along the lines of "waste can be managed and the downside mitigated" (how?) and "Chernobyl was due to cheap parts and human error that we can safeguard now with better technology." 

I guess my question is, how accurate is any of that?

About 5-10 years ago one of the major electrical and gas utility companies in Iowa proposed building a nuclear power plant in Iowa. I did some online research on cost. The cost of generating nuclear power was much higher than fossil fuel, hydroelectric, or wind. It was not even close.
Nuclear is very clean. The worrisome aspects are waste storage, transportation of nuclear waste to permanent storage, permanent storage, and security of such facilities from manmade and natural disasters. When Fukishima went south I had no idea power plants stored spent nuclear fuel cells onsite (and in an earthquake zone, and area subject to tsunamis). They must do so to cool them down before sending them elsewhere for permanent storage. In retrospect it seems fair to ask why anyone would build a nuclear power plant near geological fault lines.
I haven't researched cost of nuclear power recently. Unfortunately, since it is such a clean burning fuel, the cost of generating nuclear power was an eye opener.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 03:36:17 PM

BWRX-300 Small Modular Reactor | GE Hitachi Nuclear (gevernova.com) (https://www.gevernova.com/nuclear/carbon-free-power/bwrx-300-small-modular-reactor)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 03:55:55 PM

seems to this dirt farmer.... going all in on nuclear power is the only feasible way to replace burning fossil fuels quickly enough to ward off climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 03:56:55 PM

My thought is similar, go hard on shutting down coal plants, replacing them with SMRs and a single design.  But licensing would take forever as things stand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 04:01:28 PM

Warren Buffet claims that solar and wind power could and would be much farther along if not for bureaucratic rules, regulations, and other hurdles.  And of course more cooperation from power companies. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 04:02:35 PM

That's true for any construction project.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2023, 04:09:38 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 03:55:55 PM

seems to this dirt farmer.... going all in on nuclear power is the only feasible way to replace burning fossil fuels quickly enough to ward off climate change

And we don't even know if THAT will work.

Or do we?

Do they?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 04:10:31 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 04:01:28 PM

Warren Buffet claims that solar and wind power could and would be much farther along if not for bureaucratic rules, regulations, and other hurdles.  And of course more cooperation from power companies.

That's odd, considering here in TX solar and wind energy outfits are subsidized by the bureaucrats to the point they don't need to be profitable, or particularly productive.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 04:12:32 PM

The US could magically go to a zero carbon electrical system and we'd make only a slight dent in climate change, using their models.

I'm talking maybe a tenth of a degree in 25 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 04:15:35 PM

We've gotta get the cows to stop farting.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2023, 04:23:47 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 04:15:35 PM

We've gotta get the cows to stop farting. 

And me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2023, 04:26:44 PM

Problem is that if we completely stopped emitting greenhouse gases, it would still take decades for the atmospheric concentration to come down...

Per CD, if the entire world stopped now and we're just above 420 ppm atmospheric CO2, it's not like in 25 years we'll be back to the preindustrial 280 ppm. We'd be likely to still be in maybe a 400 ppm range. 

But of course if we continue our present course, we'll probably be >470 ppm instead in 25 years. 

I know most of you think that's not a problem, and I hope you're right. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2023, 04:28:56 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2023, 04:26:44 PM

I know most of you think that's not a problem, and I hope you're right.

All I know is that I don't know if it's a problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 04:33:34 PM

The problem is that the US electrical grid is a small part of global CO2 emissions.  Transportation here is a greater source.  And the EIA projections for how we will generate electricity in 2050 are rather concerning, if they are accurate.

We're basically throwing money with no plan at a completely intractable problem and having meetings.  This is a huge huge problem, if indeed it's a problem.

(https://i.imgur.com/9Kk3Rt2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 04:43:49 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 04:10:31 PM

That's odd, considering here in TX solar and wind energy outfits are subsidized by the bureaucrats to the point they don't need to be profitable, or particularly productive. 

yup, it's just that it slows development from getting things up and running in months, it take years and years to get things done.

The money is there.
The technology is there.
The want to is there.

Just blocked by paperwork and regulations, and requirements and such.

similar to starting up a nuclear plant

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 04:46:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 04:33:34 PM

The problem is that the US electrical grid is a small part of global CO2 emissions.  Transportation here is a greater source.  And the EIA projections for how we will generate electricity in 2050 are rather concerning, if they are accurate.

Transportation will continue to be a great source, especially if the EVs are powered by coal burning plants.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Hawkinole on December 05, 2023, 04:47:12 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 04:01:28 PM

Warren Buffet claims that solar and wind power could and would be much farther along if not for bureaucratic rules, regulations, and other hurdles.  And of course more cooperation from power companies.

Buffett should know. Berkshire Hathaway has a division that owns windfarms in our county, and I am sure elsewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2023, 04:50:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 04:33:34 PM

We're basically throwing money with no plan at a completely intractable problem and having meetings.  This is a huge huge problem, if indeed it's a problem.

The problem is that one side understands economics and realize trying to solve the problem is going to be the most expensive human undertaking, probably, ever. So they deny the problem exists to solve the cognitive dissonance of not actually doing anything to solve it. 

And the other side believes in the problem, but don't understand the economics or technology. So they think that we can just magically handwave all that away and that it's just mean old dudes from the other side that are standing in their way. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 04:53:36 PM

Quote from: Hawkinole on December 05, 2023, 04:47:12 PM

Buffett should know. Berkshire Hathaway has a division that owns windfarms in our county, and I am sure elsewhere.

Buffett knows

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Hawkinole on December 05, 2023, 04:55:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 05, 2023, 04:33:34 PM

The problem is that the US electrical grid is a small part of global CO2 emissions.  Transportation here is a greater source.  And the EIA projections for how we will generate electricity in 2050 are rather concerning, if they are accurate.

We're basically throwing money with no plan at a completely intractable problem and having meetings.  This is a huge huge problem, if indeed it's a problem.

[img width=500 height=237.969]https://i.imgur.com/9Kk3Rt2.png[/img]

It seems to me hydrogen fueled cars are the ultimate solution to overtaxing the electric grid which itself will generate carbon emissions so long as it is fueled by fossil fuels. Hydrogen cars don't take long to fuel up either. But it takes a while to find a fuel station, and for us here, such a station might be a half a continent away.
Almost every time I look at wind power generation in Iowa, the percentage rises. Today in Iowa it is estimated that 62% of our electrical energy comes from wind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2023, 04:58:03 PM

Okay... Asking to see if anyone can let me know the problem here.

We have some clean technologies (wind/solar), but they have serious problems. 

One, they're unreliable and not always aligned for peak generation with peak usage. I.e. I posted a couple months ago that the peak in CA for solar generation is during the mid-afternoon hours and peak usage is roughly 4-9 PM when people get home from work. 

Two, and related to the first problem, is that we don't have good energy storage capability. Storage could solve the mismatch between generation and usage issue, because then we could use the stored energy for peak usage rather than relying on quick-fired NG or other CO2-generating technology.

We could use battery storage, but building batteries isn't the cleanest from an environmental perspective and will take significant natural resources to scale. I don't think it's economic (although it maybe can be at a home-scale solar / battery combo).

But, we have hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen is a zero-CO2 emissions fuel when used in a fuel cell, which converts hydrogen into electricity. The problem is "how do you create liquid hydrogen?" because it tends to be a very electricity-intensive process. 

But if we have clean electricity production (wind/solar) and clean usage (hydrogen fuel cells), why don't we use solar/wind to generate liquid hydrogen that we can then store for use in fuel cells for peak demand? 

I'm assuming it's inefficient, costly, and thus uneconomical as a storage tech. But I've never investigated so I'm asking all of you. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 05, 2023, 05:08:18 PM

generating electricity to produce hydrogen, then using the hydrogen to produce electricity seems inefficient 

 but, with enough wind & solar it could be a better solution than batteries

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2023, 07:47:41 AM

Yeah, producing and then storing hydrogen is inefficient, but folks have looked into this for those reasons.  There are quite a few other ways to store energy in recoverable form that also are being looked at aside from batteries.  Stored hydro is one, already in limited use.  Gravity is another, you use excess power to lift a weight up, and then recover it later.  There are molten salt cycles possible.  

All of them of course are inefficient, and can be pricey.  It's inherent none of them can be anything like 100% efficient.

A possible future is truck stops dispensing hydrogen for trucks and filling stations dedicated to recharging EVs.  It would be like the old days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2023, 07:48:59 AM

The cattle thing I don't really understand as we had tens of millions of bison back in the day.  They supposedly burp less methane, fine, but we had about as many as we have cattle today.

Globally that may be different.

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 06, 2023, 10:08:41 AM

caused me to think about a dinosaur fart

damnit!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2023, 10:10:49 AM

Supposedly, it's burps more than farts.  As I noted, we had a LOT of bison back in the day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 07, 2023, 01:05:27 PM

ARLINGTON, Va. – National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) CEO Jim Matheson today expressed alarm over a secret deal that would set in motion steps to breach the Lower Snake River Dams. The proposed deal was made public by lawmakers from the Pacific Northwest on Nov. 29.

“The proposed backroom deal is deeply alarming and would jeopardize reliable electricity for millions of Americans in the Pacific Northwest,” Matheson said. “Not only does this expose a severe lack of understanding about the importance of keeping the lights on, it also reveals the administration’s misplaced desire to undermine our nation’s essential portfolio of carbon-free hydroelectric resources without considering the cost. This is another egregious example of proposed government actions having devastating real-world consequences.” 

The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association is the national trade association representing nearly 900 local electric cooperatives. From growing suburbs to remote farming communities, electric co-ops serve as engines of economic development for 42 million Americans across 56 percent of the nation’s landscape. As local businesses built by the consumers they serve, electric cooperatives have meaningful ties to rural America and invest $15 billion annually in their communities.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 07, 2023, 03:01:42 PM

NETZERO is impeding progress on UN Sustainable Development Goals | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/12/05/netzero-is-impeding-progress-on-un-sustainable-development-goals/#more-30739)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2023, 01:33:12 PM

Draft climate summit document floats fossil fuel phaseout but light on timeline details | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4349817-cop28-climate-summit-draft-fossil-fuel-phaseout-without-concrete-timeline/)

They should plan another meeting to TALK TALK TALK and maybe have nonbinding useless goals set, Bora Bora is nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2023, 08:25:18 AM

In a historic first, a US offshore wind farm delivers power to the grid | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2023/12/06/us-first-utility-scale-offshore-wind-farm-first-power-south-fork/?fbclid=IwAR3rFEkI_RRLpBz9b8AmUf3Y6h1khXAxKu0ZuzhhWst-bdvrePGrR4_lhu4)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2023, 08:43:45 AM

The Truth About Net Zero, at Last - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/cop28-net-zero-carbon-emissions-climate-sultan-al-jaber-da4b4763?mod=e2tw&fbclid=IwAR15vRQHOz9koekM-P8YPb1nZCXsmcy1pCFuxLNlERoQg1qQUjUVVeJmfeY)

The common denominator is reality. European countries, like the U.S., are discovering that no matter how hard they push on the net-zero string, costs never come down, green jobs never materialize to replace industrial employment, and the subsidy bill never declines. Meanwhile, Europe’s economies already are highly efficient in carbon emitted per euro of gross domestic product—and China and India keep building coal-fired power plants anyway.

Developing economies don’t have the luxury of net-zero fantasies and understand they need fossil fuels for their people to enjoy rising prosperity. The alternative is the cave of Mr. Jaber’s telling, and it turns out that no number of elaborate climate summits will persuade ordinary people to return to the darkness.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2023, 10:17:25 AM

maybe this will save the world?

https://www.tomsguide.com/news/new-oled-breakthrough-could-mean-cheaper-eco-friendly-tvs (https://www.tomsguide.com/news/new-oled-breakthrough-could-mean-cheaper-eco-friendly-tvs)

Using these MnBz crystals, Sree and the team developed a warm-white light-emitting device and a green phosphorescent OLED device, both of which showed a current efficiency of 56.84 cd A-1 and a record-breaking quantum efficiency of 11.42%. In short, that’s far more efficient than current-generation OLEDs and reduces the ecological footprint of OLED manufacturing.

Additionally, the first of its kind complex-based warm-white light-emitting device delivered a color rendering index (CRI) of 78. Conventional OLEDs typically average around 90 and decrease over usage time.

Although a fascinating and an incredible starting point, David Suddaby, who has in his own words indirectly worked on "emitters of all kinds," explains that most viewing panels and even lighting equipment leveraged by professionals in the movie-making industry "don't use anything with CRI's rated under 95."

Adds Suddaby, "A trained eye can easily see the difference without even using a color metering device that measures CRI. A 100 CRI is the gold standard which all is judged. That would either be the SUN (for cooler CRIs') or a PURE blackbody radiating at 3200K for warmer toned CRI's."

Still, the school's findings do mark an impressive junction in the evolution of OLED fabrication, if the CRI contingent can be modified even further.

Beyond potentially decreasing the average price for an OLED panel, the newly devised MnBz fabrication process could also ensure that such devices are energy-efficient. This is due largely to the high brightness specs of these MnBz-based emitters, as it could allow for more eco-friendly lighting systems and consumer electronics long-term. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2023, 10:21:39 AM

or this.........  lots of motorcycles in India & china

Source: press release Zero Motorcycles | One hundred years ago, the first recipient of the Maudes Trophy was Norton Motorcycles. The award is given to motorcycle manufacturers who successfully complete observed endurance challenges. Zero is the 11th manufacturer to achieve this feat and the first to do so without using petrol as a source of power.

Seven riders battled the elements to ride the bikes in shifts, including the National Motorcyclists Council’s Craig Carey-Clinch, former racer Curt Langan and bike journalist Martin Fitz-Gibbons. The remaining team members were staff from authorised Zero dealerships: Andy Dalton from Wheels Motorcycles, Matthew Drew from J&M Electrobikes and Macauley Perkins and Ben Grayson from The Bike Sanctuary.


https://thepack.news/for-the-first-time-in-a-century-maudes-trophy-has-been-awarded-to-an-electric-motorcycle-brand-zero-motorcycles/ (https://thepack.news/for-the-first-time-in-a-century-maudes-trophy-has-been-awarded-to-an-electric-motorcycle-brand-zero-motorcycles/)

“Aside from the honour of winning this prestigious award, it has been an excellent opportunity for all involved to learn more about riding electric motorcycles in extreme conditions. Potential customers are often asking questions about touring and riding in cold temperatures. Our dealers now have first-hand experience, riding in conditions no Zero owner is likely to ever find themselves in, and we have been able to prove our product in these most challenging conditions. It feels fitting to be the first EV company to win this trophy, and 100 years after it was first awarded. Electric motorcycles are no longer the future but a viable proposition for many riders today.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 10, 2023, 05:37:19 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/10/climate/cop28-iea-warning-doha-intl/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 13, 2023, 07:35:10 AM

They had a meeting!!

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/cop28-leaders-call-for-transitioning-away-from-fossil-fuels-in-final-push-at-climate-talks-48f4b1c3?st=wxr4mkpgtc7bads&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2023, 07:47:59 AM

Yeah, "transition away" ... I thought we were already doing that.  Does this mean anything at all?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2023, 07:58:26 AM

No

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2023, 08:28:54 AM

The weather here today is quite nice, for December anyway.  The high may hit 60°F and its sunny, not much wind.  I'll be able to get out and about.

I mostly chuckle at the chuckleheads who think these COP meetings mean ANYTHING at all beyond posturing and words.  I suspect much of government is posturing and words, politics anyway.  I got one person pretty fired up on FB about it all, he claims these words really mean something.  He can't say what, but thinks it's all very great.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2023, 10:08:05 AM

I'm still somewhat "amazed"? that folks seem to tolerate these COP meetings and resolutions as if they mean anything.  Am I missing something?  They make the news cycle and some of the speeches make it sounds as if there is something "real" in it.  

To me, it's as if a group of us got together and gaves speeches to each other about how we're going to lose weight, yup, sure thing, one of these days, while drinking copious amoungs of beer and eating chili and Q.  

"Hey, we all agree we're gonna lose weight now, soon!!!!!"  

Nothing about how much or when or how, just some vague aspirational burfle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2023, 08:03:23 AM

What a great meeting!!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cop28-deal-fossil-fuels-transition-john-kerry-renewable-energy-e079a395?st=2ljo4a7ulhmdf7p&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2023, 08:09:16 AM

Like most meetings 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on December 14, 2023, 08:12:20 AM

World's largest unfinished Framework!

The late Tom Wolfe could not imagine finding better material to write about.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2023, 08:15:16 AM

I've scanned a number of articles about the outcomes of this meeting, not one of them noted that it's all based on pledges that are themselves so vague as to timing as to be irrelevant.  We're already "transitioning" away from fossil fuels anyway, have been for a while now.  And yet the implication is this "pledge" is worth a bucket of warm camel spit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2023, 08:22:48 AM

The UN tells Americans to eat less meat. The UN tells us to reduce fossil fuel usage.

The Climate Czar tells us that 33% of Co2 emissions is agriculture related. (No explanation given on how that number was calculated/made up.)

So, they all had a meeting, in Dubai (no oil there), flying in on their private jets, and they ate what? (All kinds of gourmet meats.)

Oil producing countries and China did not sign the agreement.

...

You can't make this stuff up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2023, 08:26:56 AM

Dubai is a pretty nice city (duh).  I wish we had spent more time there (two days, one of which was pretty jet lagged).  It's very clean and hyper modern and not very expensive.  It's all liberal with respect to tourists for an Arab country.  We were told crime is almost nonexistent (I'd guess penalties are draconian.)

An issue lingering is that 80% of the population in the UAE are "workers" imported from Pakistan et al.

Anyway, as you note, the various and sundry flew into Dubai and most signed a completely toothless agreement that is widely hailed as a thing.  It isn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2023, 08:29:42 AM

What is COP28 in Dubai and why is it important? (bbc.com) (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67143989)

The text calls for this to be done "in a just, orderly and equitable manner". This is seen as an important recognition that richer countries are expected to move away from coal, oil and gas more quickly.

However, the deal doesn't compel countries to take action, and no timescale is specified.

However, before the final deal was agreed at COP28, there were warnings that the world is actually on track for around 2.7C of warming by 2100 (https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/nations-must-go-further-current-paris-pledges-or-face-global-warming).

Recent progress had not been in line with what was required, the UN said, leaving a "rapidly narrowing" window for action to keep the 1.5C limit in reach (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66753909).

This, to me, is the absolute height of silliness, worse than worthless and pointless.  To be hailed as anything is just dumb in my view.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 14, 2023, 10:39:09 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/YhVE1XV.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2023, 09:08:09 AM

I've been to this place. It's very nice.

A hurricane-proof town? Florida community may be a test case (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-hurricane-proof-town-florida-community-may-be-a-test-case/ar-AA1lwtHk?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=2efe648a00944f0bb8d7e0e3c8443629&ei=101)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2023, 09:56:10 AM

I might say hurricane resistant 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2023, 11:09:11 AM

It's a bit out there, so to speak.

(https://i.imgur.com/i0jd7Uy.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2023, 10:22:53 AM

For the first time in more than 50 years the US granted permission for a new type of nuclear reactor, a sign regulators are becoming more open to different approaches to producing power from splitting the atom.

California startup Kairos Power received a construction permit from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build its Hermes demonstration reactor in Tennessee. While commercial reactors in use today are cooled by water, the Kairos technology uses molten fluoride salt as a coolant.


https://fortune.com/2023/12/13/nuclear-reactor-approval-molten-salt-cooling-tennessee/ (https://fortune.com/2023/12/13/nuclear-reactor-approval-molten-salt-cooling-tennessee/)

There’s growing global interest in accelerating deployment of nuclear power as a key part of the fight to rein in climate change, but that effort has been hampered by a regulatory process that has been slow to approve new designs.

“It’s possible to license things that are different with the NRC,” Mike Laufer, Kairos’s chief executive officer, said in an interview Wednesday. The regulatory process “doesn’t have to be a roadblock.”

Kairos is among many companies seeking to commercialize designs that can be built in factories and installed on site, an approach that’s expected to be faster and cheaper than the large conventional reactors widely used today.


Kairos plans to begin construction next year on its $100 million project and expects the system to be complete by the end of 2026. The goal is to demonstrate the viability of its design and the molten salt technology. Molten salts remain liquid at high temperatures and low pressure, a potential safety advantage over water-cooled systems. Laufer said the last time the NRC approved a design that wasn’t water-cooled was in 1968.

Hermes won’t generate electricity but is expected to pave the way for the Hermes 2 project, which would use two of the same reactors to produce a combined total of about 28 megawatts of electricity.

The company’s long-term goal is a commercial project that would use two larger reactors and would have more than 100 megawatts of capacity, though Laufer said it’s too soon to say when Kairos may be able to pursue efforts beyond the initial Hermes plant. Big conventional reactors in use today typically have about 1,000 megawatts of capacity.

“We’re developing a technology that will be highly scalable,” Laufer said. “Affordability is really about being able to scale up.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2023, 10:31:55 AM

That's good news.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2023, 10:34:24 AM

My issue is how far away it appears to be from useful power generation.

There are no more nuclear power reactors under construction or nearing construction after Vogtle 4 is finished.

I doubt we'll see one in ten years being in operation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2023, 11:30:36 AM

Got a pretty big storm coming in later today. Damn.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2023, 11:32:27 AM

rain in Minneapolis

weird 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2023, 07:27:32 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/15/opinions/climate-change-comedy-cop28-mcguire/index.html

One guy gets it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2023, 09:59:44 AM

Europe's leading battery maker says it has made a breakthrough that could reduce the world's reliance on China. Swedish company Northvolt, founded in 2015 by two former Tesla execs, says its new sodium-ion battery doesn't use the critical minerals lithium, nickel, graphite, and cobalt—and it has an energy density of 160 watt-hours per kilogram, making it suitable for large-scale energy storage, though it's well below the average of 250-300 watt-hours per kilo lithium batteries in electric cars typically have. Instead of the critical minerals, which have fluctuating prices and can be a fire hazard, Northvolt's new batteries use a form of the pigment Prussian blue, the Financial Times reports.

https://www.newser.com/story/342991/swedish-company-says-its-made-huge-battery-breakthrough.html (https://www.newser.com/story/342991/swedish-company-says-its-made-huge-battery-breakthrough.html)


"Using sodium-ion technology is not new but we think this is the first product ever completely free from critical raw materials. It is a fundamental breakthrough," said Patrik Andreasson, Northvolt's vice-president of strategy and sustainability, per the Guardian. "This provides an option that is not dependent on certain parts of the world, including China." Sifted describes batteries without critical minerals as the "holy grail for the green transition." Anders Thor, the company's communications director, says that while this generation of batteries is best suited for energy storage, there is a "distinct path towards higher energy densities that also enables them for usage for vehicles, which will severely reduce cost and increase sustainability for electric mobility."

Northvolt's main business is supplying lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, but the company believes the sodium-ion battery market could end up being worth tens of billions of dollars, the FT reports. It makes batteries at a gigafactory just below the Arctic Circle in Sweden and is building plants in Canada and Germany as well as another one in Sweden. The company says it has not decided yet where it will manufacture the new sodium-ion battery developed in its labs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 19, 2023, 10:36:58 AM

It's cold here. Woke up to 49 degrees and it's not gonna get above 65 or so.

(https://i.imgur.com/yraqqd5.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2023, 11:20:53 AM

gonna be in the 50s here this weekend
I could easily put off my trip to Texas until Monday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 19, 2023, 11:44:20 AM

Yeah, we're a little on the chilly side right now... Lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s, and expecting a lot of rain over the next few days.

Needs to clear before Saturday--I have a tee time. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 19, 2023, 11:45:01 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 19, 2023, 11:20:53 AM

gonna be in the 50s here this weekend
I could easily put off my trip to Texas until Monday

Temperatures in Dallas look nice over the next week, but the forecast calls for decent chances of rain from now through Christmas Eve.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2023, 12:01:56 PM

yup, I started watching yesterday

still an extended forecast, things can change but it looks wet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 19, 2023, 12:06:52 PM

This is one of the very few years we wont have any freezing days before the first of the year

here in H town

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 19, 2023, 12:12:56 PM

Yup same here.  I never had to winterize the RV, so she'll be good to go before our post-Christmas camping trip.  I did go ahead and winterize the  boat at the end of November.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 19, 2023, 12:14:32 PM

no real cold here yet either

don't think anyone is ice fishing

nothing below zero

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 19, 2023, 12:20:31 PM

the only thing I have to do for cold weather is the sprinkling system which takes about 8 towels and turning it off

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 19, 2023, 12:21:56 PM

I don't do anything for the sprinkler system.  Ground just doesn't get cold enough to freeze.  Even after the Icepocalypses of 2021 and 2023,the sprinkler system was fine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on December 19, 2023, 12:29:44 PM

Quote from: utee94 on December 19, 2023, 12:21:56 PM

I don't do anything for the sprinkler system.  Ground just doesn't get cold enough to freeze.  Even after the Icepocalypses of 2021 and 2023,the sprinkler system was fine.

on mine where the pipes come out of the ground to go into the control box there is a series of valves that can freeze so I cover them up

I dont worry about underground pipes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2023, 08:48:07 AM

I turned the heat on for probably the 3rd time in the almost 4 years we've lived here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2023, 08:50:10 AM

not cooking enuff in the kitchen to heat the house?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2023, 08:54:40 AM

Not this early. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2023, 09:00:50 AM

almost too late for breakfast

brunch!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2023, 09:13:31 AM

Generally don't do a lot of cooking on weekdays.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 20, 2023, 09:13:48 AM

28º and Sunny now, yesterday rain/snow freeze about 2" fell the forecast isn't favoring snow for Christmas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2023, 09:42:24 AM

no white Xmas here
no white Xmas in Dallas

fine with me

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2023, 10:01:48 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 20, 2023, 09:42:24 AM

no white Xmas here
no white Xmas in Dallas

fine with me

White Christmas here.


(https://i.imgur.com/qDKiMco.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 20, 2023, 10:11:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 20, 2023, 09:42:24 AM

no white Xmas here
no white Xmas in Dallas

fine with me

Infidel

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2023, 10:30:59 AM

I fondly remember all of my Christmases in Texas-- playing catch with my cousins in sunny 80 degree weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 21, 2023, 02:58:06 AM

We were freezing earlier in a blizzard      In Hawaii.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 07:59:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 21, 2023, 02:58:06 AM

We were freezing earlier in a blizzard      In Hawaii. 

Stay off the mountains. Plenty of white stuff on the beach!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 22, 2023, 06:52:40 PM

Beach sand here is brown or black or even green. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 26, 2023, 10:50:06 AM

Schottky Junction Electrode Revolutionizes Seawater Electrolysis
By Brian Westenhaus - 
The new electrode design overcomes the low electrical conductivity issue of (oxy)hydroxide catalysts, improving hydrogen and oxygen evolution reactions.
The electrode combines metallic nickel-tungsten nitride (Ni-W5N4) and semiconducting nickel-iron (oxy)hydroxide (NiFeOOH) to form a Schottky junction, boosting water splitting ability.
This innovation can sustainably produce hydrogen from seawater, operating continuously for 10 days, showing potential for replacing fossil fuel-dependent methods.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Schottky-Junction-Electrode-Revolutionizes-Seawater-Electrolysis.html (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Schottky-Junction-Electrode-Revolutionizes-Seawater-Electrolysis.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 26, 2023, 12:10:15 PM

Gonna have some nice weather for winter camping down here in Central Texico.  Cold evenings and overnight lows, so it'll be fun for campfires and s'mores and whatnot, but highs during the day reasonable enough to get in plenty of hiking and playing around.

(https://i.imgur.com/25CcxNM.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2023, 01:19:38 PM

78 today, but entering into a chilly stretch for a while, it appears.

(https://i.imgur.com/P6Kt9ZU.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 26, 2023, 01:35:31 PM

Pretty normal seasonal weather here. Might have to wear pants instead of shorts playing golf tomorrow...

Nah...

(https://i.imgur.com/YNI1Oxa.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2023, 02:04:50 PM

We're headed to Cabo on the 6th. Weather is not all that different from here, except the mornings look warmer.

(https://i.imgur.com/dRR8G2a.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 26, 2023, 06:09:16 PM

So why go?

Tequila???

Boat trip through Panama??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2023, 07:56:18 AM

I wonder the same thing.

All the people are from up North - friends. Wyoming, Chicago, Michigan, Maine.

And then there's the Florida outlier. 

Maybe I should make 'em all come here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 27, 2023, 08:56:48 AM

nah, then you'd be too busy cookin to enjoy yourself

oh wait, you enjoy cookin for your friends - even Gopher Rock!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2023, 08:58:16 AM

We do a lot of cooking in Cabo.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 27, 2023, 10:42:17 AM

Diego is foggy this AM.  Maritime. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2023, 10:47:44 AM

Marine layer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 27, 2023, 11:09:26 AM

not moving there!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2023, 09:25:56 AM

Not much blue sky here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 28, 2023, 09:28:37 AM

blue sky in Dallas this morning

golf weather Friday, Saturday, & Sunday

upper 30's back home in the great white north

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 02, 2024, 07:59:34 AM

“Realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2023/12/29/realistic-global-warming-projections-for-the-21st-century/)

Because future climate change is expected to be modest enough that any potential related hazards can be addressed efficiently through effective and low-cost adaptation strategies, the 2.0 °C Paris-agreement warming target for the twenty-first century can likely be met even under the feasible and moderate SSP2-4.5 emission scenario without the need for implementing rapid, extremely expensive, and technologically likely impossible net-zero decarbonization policies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 03, 2024, 07:42:10 AM

49 degrees here. WTF. 

Someone burn some coal or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2024, 07:55:31 AM

Heh,  I've been checking ten day forecasts for North Port, they look pretty decent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 03, 2024, 08:16:13 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 03, 2024, 07:42:10 AM

49 degrees here. WTF.

Someone burn some coal or something.

Shirt sleeve weather - been cloudy and 29-39 the past 5 days or so here.Cold I can take, no sun for extended periods I feel like Bela Lugosi

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2024, 09:26:58 AM

got a cold shot of rain yesterday in North Texas

https://youtu.be/m2ou-WIxfLY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 05, 2024, 08:02:39 AM

Illinois recently ended the state’s 36-year nuclear moratorium, but it’s a mistake to think that means more nuclear-powered electricity is coming to local homes.

The new legislation keeps the door shut on building traditional nuclear power plants. It ends the moratorium only for one specific kind of reactor called a small modular reactor.

The small units are not designed for the public electrical grid. They are built to be used only by specific sites, such as factories or quarries.

More importantly, small modular reactors don’t exist yet.

According to The Associated Press, the company developing the reactors canceled their plans to pursue the technology on the very day the bill passed the Illinois Senate. According to the report, NuScale Power had the only U.S.-certified small modular reactor design plans. Even if other companies pursue the units in the future, they are likely decades from viability. NuScale did not expect to launch its design until 2029.

If the technology does come to market, the current legislation is still no guarantee it will come to Illinois. The bill requires a safety study first, at the state’s expense, after which regulators could opt to rescind the clearance. If they don’t rescind, it would still only be available to corporate sites should they opt to invest in it themselves.


https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-new-nuclear-bill-goes-dark-before-it-can-spark/ (https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-new-nuclear-bill-goes-dark-before-it-can-spark/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 05, 2024, 11:31:21 AM

The Price Germany Pays for Net Zero - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-cost-of-net-zero-green-energy-e671cc91?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR3Hm13_wQtxbFnoJ5eywCi8qEII_w4QHFTxfa9xYb6-SVU8i_MB6QE6qWM)

Separate research from the same think tank recently estimated (https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/de/publikationen/investitionen-der-energiewende-bis-2030/) the total cost of approaching net zero at €1.9 trillion between now and the end of 2030. That’s around €240 billion a year, for those keeping score at home. We couldn’t believe it either, but we checked and this is only for Germany, not for the entire European Union. Also, this counts only new investment. Older windmills or solar panels that require replacing in coming years will cost extra.

That enormous figure is worth putting on the record because in practice it will remain hidden from the public. The report counts both private investment (including spending households will have to undertake to improve their energy efficiency) as well as public spending. If anything, more of the burden is likely to shift to the private economy in higher prices and more expensive mandates after a recent court ruling (https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-net-zero-energy-transition-court-ruling-olaf-scholz-christian-lindner-fc59d5b6?mod=article_inline) has made it (https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-budget-olaf-scholz-net-zero-climate-green-energy-e1162ad3?mod=article_inline) harder for Berlin to offer direct subsidies.

This is a warning for everyone else because Germany, and Europe generally, is much further down the path of the net-zero transition than the U.S. Two decades and uncountable hundreds of billions of euros into its energy transformation, Germany’s net-zero bills never shrink and the promised boom in green industries and jobs never materializes. Does Washington feel any luckier?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 08:57:47 AM

Washington always feels lucky 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2024, 09:16:55 AM

waiting patiently on the storm..............


Today in Sioux City, IA..
Periods of snow. 
High 31F. 
Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. 
Chance of snow 100%. 
Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

no worries Nubbz - sending it your way

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2024, 10:35:54 AM

Local weather isn't showing it yet, but late this week there's a possibility of one of those polar vortex thingies ripping through the central plains and down into Texico.  Given the known power issues from 2/3 of the past winters, that has folks feeling a little nervous.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2024, 10:41:50 AM

supposed to get pretty cold here over the weekend
I think I'll stay inside and watch football - brew a pot of chili

-15 for overnight low Saturday, high of -5 Sunday and -13 for overnight low

with a breeze of 16mph Saturday night, it will feel crisp

crisp snot

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2024, 10:43:24 AM

High of -5 you say?

I won't be moving there.

You're welcome for my support. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2024, 10:47:41 AM

yup, in my youth I'd be out ice fishing and snowmobiling and such... in those temps, just because it was the weekend and bored

Older men don't tolerate frostbite as well

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2024, 11:01:13 AM

Was on my way to the golf course yesterday and heard on the radio "high wind advisory until 7 PM", so that was fun. Misjudged one par 3 facing 154 to the pin with a tailwind, hit my 140 club, and bounced it off the net protecting homes behind the green so it went about 170 lol. Cold day too... Teed off below 50 and high was in the high 50s. Didn't take off my 1/4-zip pullover until the 5th hole for once. The sun certainly helped make it feel warmer.

10-day forecast has us predicted to struggle to break out of the low 60s this week, but warming up to mid-high 60s after that and even showing a high of 70 one day in the forecasting window.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 09, 2024, 07:26:25 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/09/world-close-to-1point5-degrees-threshold-after-hottest-year-on-record.html


Maybe we need a plan.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 09, 2024, 09:25:24 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2024, 11:01:13 AM

10-day forecast has us predicted to struggle to break out of the low 60s this week, but warming up to mid-high 60s after that and even showing a high of 70 one day in the forecasting window.

That's turrible,just turrible

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 09, 2024, 09:35:57 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 09, 2024, 07:26:25 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/09/world-close-to-1point5-degrees-threshold-after-hottest-year-on-record.html


Maybe we need a plan. 

It's all the de-foresting imo that is certainly causing alot/most of the change.Sure Russia/China/India could also try some environmental measures regarding factories. Screw the blister heads Biden/Gore/Kerry ideas on electric - wind mills and solar panels,charging stations - all pipe dreams. Hydro elecric plants maybe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 09, 2024, 11:59:29 AM

We are supposed to get our first freeze of the year next week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2024, 12:41:11 PM

Snowblower runs like a champ with the new sparkplug
Driveway and sidewalks only took about 15 minutes with a broken foot

nice out there this morning - wind went down and almost 18 degrees

(https://i.imgur.com/oCNBczV.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 09, 2024, 12:43:07 PM

yer s'posed to show us the AFTER picture...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2024, 12:52:33 PM

oh, that's an empty Bud can

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2024, 05:16:17 PM

company Xmas party was postponed

Guess I'll stay home and watch Hawks/Huskers - Rasslin at 6:30 - Hoops at 8:30

Snowblower is kickin ass - my driveway is clean

this is a pic of the neighbor

(https://i.imgur.com/qw3HMu5.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2024, 05:22:35 PM

65 and sunny here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 12, 2024, 08:28:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 12, 2024, 05:16:17 PM

company Xmas party was postponed

Guess I'll stay home and watch Hawks/Huskers - Rasslin at 6:30 - Hoops at 8:30

Snowblower is kickin ass - my driveway is clean

this is a pic of the neighbor

Did he move to Quebec?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 13, 2024, 01:33:15 AM

Bout to get chilly for a couple of days here in the CPTX.

(https://i.imgur.com/OtBd5Fc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2024, 09:53:34 AM

batten down the hatches

(https://i.imgur.com/hqYM3OX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2024, 12:20:35 PM

The coldest Ive ever experienced in my life was 16 below and of course it was in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2024, 12:24:40 PM

I did some ice fishin on Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesooota 20 years ago.

don't recall the official temp but, the resort owner begged us not to come that weekend.

probably 30-40 below

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2024, 01:04:42 PM

I remember once in high school and then once at Purdue where the temps were about 20 below, with 40-60 below wind chill. 

I don't miss it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2024, 01:24:39 PM

it's uncomfortable, to say the least

I'm not going out until Monday, maybe tuesday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2024, 08:18:21 AM

From New York City to the coast of Maine, record-breaking high tides in part fueled by the climate crisis brought destruction to the U.S. northeast on Saturday with roads flooded, infrastructure destroyed, and historic buildings washed out to sea—a horrifying preview of what scientists say will become all the more frequent if humanity continues its refusal to end the era of fossil fuels.

In downtown Portland, Maine the areas along the harbor and waterfront piers were inundated with unprecedented flooding. The city's vibrant Old Port was underwater in many places with extensive damage to buildings, businesses, and infrastructure.


https://www.commondreams.org/news/fishing-shacks-maine-sea-level-rise (https://www.commondreams.org/news/fishing-shacks-maine-sea-level-rise)

While a storm system was blowing through southern Maine, bringing heavy winds and rain, the region has experienced much larger and powerful storms. According to the local CBS affiliate, "The Portland tide gauge settled out at 14.57 feet. That's the highest tide ever recorded in Portland."

Major coastline flooding was also reported in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire.


The coastal flooding in the northeast—which brought unseasonal heavy rains in regions much more accustomed to snow this time of year—came as the central states of the country experienced icy cold temperatures due the polar vortex phenomenon that scientists also attribute to the climate crisis.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 14, 2024, 08:59:04 AM

Fearless ya bastage thanx for sending that our way. Looking for some witches to throw on the fire. Smoke'em if ya got 'em

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2024, 09:10:21 AM

I don't know much about record-breaking high tides.
I am in the middle of the polar vortex so, a little experience.

I'm not sayin they are wrong about climate change attributing to the polar vortex.
I just have a question.......
since we didn't break a low record at negative 18 this morning, what attributed to the previous record low and what did they call it?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 14, 2024, 10:47:51 AM

(https://graphical.weather.gov/images/conus/MaxT1_conus.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 14, 2024, 10:53:17 AM

Funny that we're on page 666 of this thread when everyone's frozen...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 14, 2024, 11:04:38 AM

(https://media.gettyimages.com/id/86091570/video/road-sign-pointing-to-hell-along-snowy-country-roadside-chelsea-michigan.jpg?s=640x640&k=20&c=q3gX5AAiGIKcjMa65MWkOiN4mQ17jYTnn9OPGIs3tlY=)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on January 14, 2024, 01:01:27 PM

@MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) 

You got your wish.. sun is out and it’s freezing arse cold.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 14, 2024, 01:26:05 PM

Quote from: SuperMario on January 14, 2024, 01:01:27 PM

@MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17)

You got your wish.. sun is out and it’s freezing arse cold.

That wasn't my wish my frozen weasel friend,simply an observation

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 15, 2024, 11:50:16 AM

High of 13 today but it's a dry freeze, spectacular sun bouncing off the dusting of snow gotta wear the rayban's. Cheerful not as nasty as yesterday - so far

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2024, 11:55:57 AM

I'd love to see a temp today of above zero.
Prolly too much to ask for, but single negative digits are wat better than double digits below zero.

still not going outside

not even to caucus for Trump!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2024, 12:01:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 15, 2024, 11:09:09 AM

Rain here.  Sposed to clear. 

Looks like a washout today.

Gonna have to pump the pool down. Weird for this time of year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on January 15, 2024, 12:24:34 PM

Eagles still touring too. . Checks out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2024, 07:34:17 AM

Definitely a washout yesterday. 4" in the pool.

South of us was worse.

Cape Coral, Fort Myers slammed with street flooding after 3-6 inches of rain Monday (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/cape-coral-fort-myers-slammed-with-street-flooding-after-3-6-inches-of-rain-monday/ar-AA1n1Hel?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=36cc458040014c7e973e31a927a1ac4f&ei=16)

This is not normal for here. Haven't seen the sun much this year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 08:44:40 AM

The Snowball Earth Hypothesis

Snowball Earth is a strongly disputed hypothesis developed to explain sedimentary glacial deposits at tropical latitudes from the Cryogenian period. The hypothesis proposes that, about 800 million years ago, the Earth was entirely covered with ice and that multicellular evolution accelerated when the climate began to warm up. Some dispute the feasibility of an entirely frozen ocean and prefer a “slushball” scenario to explain the ice's rapid movement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 09:36:28 AM

10 below this morning, but the cold snap is over.
supposed to be nearly 10 above this afternoon!
think I'll celebrate and go out for lunch and some groceries.
Maybe stop by the pub for a happy hour beer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2024, 10:49:14 AM

Another washout today. Yesterday was bad for some to the South.

(https://i.imgur.com/OGbmAXg.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 16, 2024, 11:33:11 AM

Sunny and a high of 68 here today. 

Of course, beautiful weather on a work day and it's supposed to rain all weekend. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 16, 2024, 11:39:29 AM

Sunny and a high of 31 here today.

I'm thinking more and more about moving to where it's hot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2024, 11:42:41 AM

Some like it hot. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 11:49:30 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 16, 2024, 11:39:29 AM

Sunny and a high of 31 here today.

I'm thinking more and more about moving to where it's hot.

McAllen??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 16, 2024, 11:52:07 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 11:49:30 AM

McAllen??

Playa del Carmen, Mexico

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 12:26:29 PM

that's a nice place

but, it's not Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 16, 2024, 12:38:41 PM

Texas is too cold for me.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2024, 01:04:28 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2024, 10:49:14 AM

Another washout today. Yesterday was bad for some to the South.

Good Luck down there 847 hope it breaks soon

up to 14° from 6 this morning,no wind and bright sun bouncing off the snow - so not to bad at all 😎

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2024, 01:06:23 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 16, 2024, 11:33:11 AM

Of course, beautiful weather on a work day and it's supposed to rain all weekend.

Of course,take the day off go golfing work this weekend 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2024, 01:12:04 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 09:36:28 AM

10 below this morning, but the cold snap is over.
supposed to be nearly 10 above this afternoon!
think I'll celebrate and go out for lunch and some groceries.
Maybe stop by the pub for a happy hour beer

Have a schooner and runza for me - over the sink if they'll allow it.Chili came out great yesterday,hope I can remember the recipe. Just right amount of zing/zest,don't have to stick my face out the door in 10 deg weather to cool it down

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 08:08:47 PM

had a few beers (longneck Buds) and some wings at BWWs.  BOGO traditional ya know on Tuesday

no sinks were damaged

the Chili I finished last night warmed my feet to the point I took off my slippers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 16, 2024, 08:42:19 PM

Getting cold enough as the sun goes down that I gotta close the windows... 

I will say that I must be getting soft. I actually have run the heat about 2 times so far. Gets a little annoying in the morning (particularly since I WFH) when the house is ~57 degrees and I'd really love to just get it up to a nice comfortable 62...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 09:01:23 PM

it was 58 degrees in my kitchen the past few mornings, before I crank the thermostat to 66

not a problem

I dress for the weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 16, 2024, 09:31:27 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 09:01:23 PM

it was 58 degrees in my kitchen the past few mornings, before I crank the thermostat to 66

not a problem

I dress for the weather

66? What are ya  a sasquatch?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 09:50:26 PM

I do have hair on my ass

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2024, 09:58:48 PM

Sounds like something a sasquatch would say

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 11:12:53 PM

or a real man

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2024, 08:50:32 AM

Damn,bamly 23° out right now streaking up to and peaking out at 30° :celebrate: pretty near shirt sleeve weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2024, 09:00:07 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Uf9Jehm.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2024, 09:05:28 AM

looking forward to a couple inches of snow this afternoon

then headed towards a Saturday morning low of negative 19

I stocked up on provisions Tuesday afternoon - I'll hunker down

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2024, 09:06:26 AM

102 is certainly better that -19

not so sure about plus 20

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2024, 11:19:29 AM

I'd gladly take the cold over the heat.  Could be because I've never had to deal with prolonged amounts of extreme cold, but I find it easier (and cheaper) to put more clothes on and run various heat sources than trying to stay cool in our summers, which is impossible.  And there's only so many clothes I can take off before the cops have one of their talks with me. 

We lived in Wyoming when I was 1.  Wish I could remember it, but I bet I loved it.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2024, 11:28:42 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 16, 2024, 11:12:53 PM

or a real man

alrighty then good thing you drink Bud Fat instead of their lighter offerings that evidently aren't for real men

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:32:01 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2024, 11:19:29 AM

I'd gladly take the cold over the heat.  Could be because I've never had to deal with prolonged amounts of extreme cold, but I find it easier (and cheaper) to put more clothes on and run various heat sources than trying to stay cool in our summers, which is impossible.  And there's only so many clothes I can take off before the cops have one of their talks with me. 

We lived in Wyoming when I was 1.  Wish I could remember it, but I bet I loved it. 

After 53 years of brutal cold, I cannot agree with you on this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2024, 11:32:41 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 18, 2024, 09:00:07 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Uf9Jehm.png)

False - cold snaps don't hang around like heat waves do plus you can always Brewski

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:34:01 AM

We don't have heat waves. It's called SW Florida.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:36:37 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/gvpiQ04.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2024, 11:42:15 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2024, 11:19:29 AM

I'd gladly take the cold over the heat.  Could be because I've never had to deal with prolonged amounts of extreme cold, but I find it easier (and cheaper) to put more clothes on and run various heat sources than trying to stay cool in our summers, which is impossible.  And there's only so many clothes I can take off before the cops have one of their talks with me. 

We lived in Wyoming when I was 1.  Wish I could remember it, but I bet I loved it. 

yup

I have a couple layers on sitting in the livingroom
can't take enough off in the heat

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2024, 11:44:18 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2024, 11:19:29 AM

I'd gladly take the cold over the heat.  Could be because I've never had to deal with prolonged amounts of extreme cold, but I find it easier (and cheaper) to put more clothes on and run various heat sources than trying to stay cool in our summers, which is impossible.  And there's only so many clothes I can take off before the cops have one of their talks with me. 

We lived in Wyoming when I was 1.  Wish I could remember it, but I bet I loved it. 

I'll absolutely take cold over heat, but as someone who spent the first half of his life dealing with Chicago and then Purdue winters, there's a goddamned limit!

I could likely see Colorado being about the most perfect goldilocks place for weather if you're living somewhere where winter is a thing. Much more temperate than the Midwest, it gets cold and snowy but often warms up the next day, and you don't just get that brutal Midwestern "never above freezing from mid-Dec to end-Feb" level of cold. I don't want to deal with Midwest-level winter ever again. 

But of course, I don't think there's a place in the entire US with better year-round weather than where I live right now. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2024, 11:46:29 AM

yup there's a limit on both ends

20 above for the lows
90 above for the highs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:49:04 AM

You can be outside when it's 92. You cannot be outside when it's 2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2024, 03:06:39 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:49:04 AM

You can be outside when it's 92. You cannot be outside when it's 2.

Psh.  I saw thousands of fans doing exactly that at the Chiefs game the other day.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2024, 03:20:19 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:34:01 AM

We don't have heat waves. It's called SW Florida.

Oh you had waves plenty alot of the state was under water in '22

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2024, 03:24:22 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:49:04 AM

You can be outside when it's 92. You cannot be outside when it's 2.

92,not in the direct sun but 102,110,117 - that's what happened last summer south and out west

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 03:35:37 PM

It generally doesn't get above 94 here. We had a one day hit 101 last summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on January 18, 2024, 03:44:55 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:49:04 AM

You can be outside when it's 92. You cannot be outside when it's 2.

This past week in Cleveland, it was around 2 degrees in the morning and wind chill was a fun 5 below. It was possible to go outside, but i needed 3 layers to be comfortable. I still dream of my days in Singapore. High of 92, low 77 every darn day. I had friends that hated it. I loved every second of it. My closet consisted of all t-shirt and shorts outside of one set of linen pants and a dress shirt.

So technically you can go outside when it's 2, but your clothing budget in climates like this are worse and so is the space requirement for clothes.. especially with kids. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 03:49:28 PM

I was mostly tongue-in-cheek with my comment on the 2 degree thing.

Sure, you can go out with enough layers. Can you fit in the car comfortably? A restaurant? Shopping? Removing layers is a pain in the arse. That's what I hated.

I've been to cold games outside at Camp Randall and Soldier Field. They barely give you enough room to sit in shorts and a t-shirt. Add 3-4" to everyone's body and it just downright sucks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2024, 04:08:00 PM

yes, but it's warmer when yer all packed together like that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2024, 10:51:54 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:32:01 AM

After 53 years of brutal cold, I cannot agree with you on this.

I've almost zero experience with brutal cold, and I too can not agree with MDT.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2024, 10:57:09 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2024, 11:44:18 AM

But of course, I don't think there's a place in the entire US with better year-round weather than where I live right now.

Where you live never gets too cold, which is nice.

It also never warms up enough for me, which is not so nice.  You can't even drive a convertible with the top down at night in the summer without freezing your balls off.

Definitely not perfect weather for me.

Really, only tropical locations are ideal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2024, 08:05:57 AM

Very pleased to be sub-tropical. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2024, 08:18:04 AM

Not tropical.

(https://i.imgur.com/Y1tjnNq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 09:28:33 AM

beware the falling lizards

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2024, 09:34:23 AM

We don't have many of those on this side of the state. My guess is they get eaten by predators when trying to get across. There are plenty of predators, for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 09:46:22 AM

Geckos???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 09:48:13 AM

-6 here this morning - the snakes are deep underground

not many reptiles

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2024, 10:13:15 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 18, 2024, 10:57:09 PM

Where you live never gets too cold, which is nice.

It also never warms up enough for me, which is not so nice.  You can't even drive a convertible with the top down at night in the summer without freezing your balls off.

Definitely not perfect weather for me.

Really, only tropical locations are ideal.

If you grew up in Chicago, you can drive a convertible with the top down at night in the winter here :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 10:29:38 AM

I might do that a year from now.
Trying to schedule that trip to Cali with my daughters for next January

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2024, 10:51:48 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 09:46:22 AM

Geckos???

Iguanas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2024, 10:52:30 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2024, 10:13:15 AM

If you grew up in Chicago, you can drive a convertible with the top down at night in the winter here :57:

My blood has already thinned out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 11:08:04 AM

I know about the Iguanas droppin from overhead.

Figured that was what you were talkin bout, not havin many

there were plenty of Geckos at St. Pete beach when I was there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2024, 11:14:58 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2024, 10:13:15 AM

If you grew up in Chicago, you can drive a convertible with the top down at night in the winter here :57:

I guess.  But for me, no thanks.  Southern California is too cold.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 02:44:57 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/LyFJYVd.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 19, 2024, 03:13:42 PM

Dood That's what is hitting us now going over the 8" forecasted last nite - but it is freakin' georgeous not that cold 27 deg now it's picking up after the earlier 4-6 inches

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2024, 03:40:55 PM

told ya I would send it yer way!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2024, 09:38:32 AM

damn cold this morning

neg 20

sending it to Ohio

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 20, 2024, 10:37:03 AM

Da FUQ balmy 14 deg now got at least 9" snow yesterday/last nite. Please no more gifts sent this way I have no runzas to carbo load

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2024, 10:43:21 AM

I accept Great Lakes Lager as bribe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 20, 2024, 07:22:27 PM

Florida has Gators, Crocs and Pythons. 

Next it needs an influx of Komodo Dragons. 

(https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-9deb929e39db43c9a9e41687eecb7665-lq)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2024, 07:16:43 AM

38 F here in North Port.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2024, 07:18:53 AM

43 here right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 21, 2024, 09:38:41 AM

enjoy

warming up here

looking forward to a high of 26

Warmest it's been here in weeks

plenty windy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2024, 10:03:52 AM

Might open up the pool soon.

(https://i.imgur.com/ON3iIR7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 22, 2024, 10:22:25 AM

Built a nice fire in the fireplace a couple times over the weekend.  Don't get many days I can do that here. 

Downside is it's part of a covered porch area--not inside the house--and nobody ever wants to go outside and enjoy it with me.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2024, 10:25:08 AM

might be more you

and not the area

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 22, 2024, 10:32:02 AM

You're mean.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 22, 2024, 11:10:33 AM

That's the fun thing about being a Midwestern transplant in CA. When I need my antisocial time in the winter I can just go outside. It's "too cold" for everyone else. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 22, 2024, 11:28:03 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 22, 2024, 11:10:33 AM

That's the fun thing about being a Midwestern transplant in CA. When I need my antisocial time in the winter I can just go outside. It's "too cold" for everyone else.

I resemble that remark.  Like I said, Southern California is too cold.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 26, 2024, 10:51:18 AM

Get ready for the "Ark Storm" Californians - this post was Community-Noted pretty aggressively, but still, this level of weather-mongering is entertaining:


(https://i.imgur.com/ZqAqZib.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/r3PrHbS.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/J6eLgOG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 26, 2024, 11:05:29 AM

#arkstorm 2024

Never forget.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2024, 06:23:05 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/26/china/shipping-pollution-global-warming-climate-intl/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 27, 2024, 09:15:01 PM

My Man Scotty nails it a 5:57 exposes alternative energy simply pointing out it's piss poor performance when needed

https://youtu.be/nmrOeCEiVpg?t=356

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2024, 06:56:33 AM

That video is a bit hyperbolic, which I suppose is what garners clicks.  That isn't to say he isn't making some very obvious points understood by most.

The Texas cold snap also shut down one nuclear reactor and several NG power plants.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2024, 07:23:48 AM

Biden bucks Obama’s legacy on climate and gas with LNG export pause | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4433133-biden-bucks-obama-legacy-climate-gas-lng-export-pause/)

I appreciate how realism has little place in political decisions beyond appeasing some group or other.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 30, 2024, 09:34:46 PM

What would happen if Mars and Venus switched atmospheres? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2024, 09:46:26 PM

Mars would get very hot and Venus cold on one side.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 30, 2024, 11:43:35 PM

Is Venus tidally locked? 

The Sun is much smaller/farther from Mars than Venus. 

(https://science.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/PIA07997_1280-jpg.webp)

(https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a020000/a020000/a020040/transit_pre.00002_print.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 30, 2024, 11:50:02 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on January 30, 2024, 09:34:46 PM

What would happen if Mars and Venus switched atmospheres?

You'd put the poisoned air in the chilly place and the now-clean place still boiling lava hot.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 30, 2024, 11:50:32 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 22, 2024, 11:10:33 AM

That's the fun thing about being a Midwestern transplant in CA. When I need my antisocial time in the winter I can just go outside. It's "too cold" for everyone else.

Phoenix people break out the parkas when it gets under 70.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2024, 08:53:18 AM

I've witnessed it while driving a rented convertible in 60 degree weather in shirt sleeves

we each thought the other was crazy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2024, 08:55:30 AM

60 here right now.

Yesterday AM it was 43.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2024, 09:03:24 AM

32 here

going to a balmy 46

Gonna be in the 50's in Lincoln!

Melting snow like a bitch

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2024, 09:07:03 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 31, 2024, 09:03:24 AM

32 here

going to a balmy 46

Gonna be in the 50's in Lincoln!

Melting snow like a bitch

One thing a lot of people don't think about is winter flooding. It's real.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2024, 09:25:52 AM

it was very real here a few years ago

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2024, 10:02:42 AM

Had a couple of absolutely gorgeous days here. Even topped 80 on Monday. Today will be the last good one for a while though. Rain forecasted to start overnight and continue for pretty much 8 straight days. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2024, 06:37:58 PM

This Oregon Winery Turned Its Smoke-Tainted Wine Into Whiskey

https://robbreport.com/food-drink/spirits/patricia-green-cellars-wine-brandy-whiskey-blend-1235491547/ (https://robbreport.com/food-drink/spirits/patricia-green-cellars-wine-brandy-whiskey-blend-1235491547/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2024, 03:53:57 AM

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/climate/nuclear-small-modular-reactors-us-russia-china-climate-solution-intl/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2024, 06:53:02 AM

These 45 degree mornings are really starting to piss me off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2024, 07:58:18 AM

Me too but it’s warmer here. A bit. Got cloudy. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 01, 2024, 08:49:40 AM

Half way thru winter we've had some cold snaps & snow but certainly below avge snow fall - so far.Which means we'll getting hammered in late March early April maybe cancelling Opening Day. Moving it up to sunny Milwaulkee like 10-12 yrs back

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2024, 08:38:49 AM

Definitely not normal here. Not at all.

(https://i.imgur.com/xRjXOAz.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 02, 2024, 08:53:44 AM

Gotta get down into the 30s before I start bitching. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2024, 07:26:57 AM

Iceland uses 100% renewable electricity, making it the “greenest” country in the world.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2024, 10:52:28 AM

Rare 4.0 magnitude earthquake recorded from east coast of Florida (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/02/08/earthquake-recorded-florida-east-coast/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-02-08-Just-In)

(https://i.imgur.com/S2P0E2W.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2024, 10:54:46 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2024, 10:52:28 AM

Rare 4.0 magnitude earthquake recorded from east coast of Florida (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/02/08/earthquake-recorded-florida-east-coast/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-02-08-Just-In)

(https://i.imgur.com/S2P0E2W.png)

Climate change! Undersea fracking!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2024, 10:58:08 AM

Uh oh. Florida Man has awoken the Kraken!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on February 08, 2024, 07:07:50 PM

https://twitter.com/Tom_Wachs/status/1755738391100969292?t=NVH-bkg3t9lZ-Z2Dn6j5BQ&s=19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2024, 07:15:34 PM

Heard there might have been a twister in Illinois too

65 degrees in des Moines this afternoon 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2024, 07:53:30 AM

49 outside down here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2024, 08:16:33 AM

electric bill to heat my house last month was $152

seems high but, it was 20 below zero a few nights

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2024, 10:05:07 AM

The challenge of fusion power | Knowable Magazine (https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/physical-world/2023/the-challenge-of-fusion-power)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2024, 10:58:19 AM

We've discussed this in the past. Not really anything conclusive on timing.

System of Atlantic currents approaching ‘Day After Tomorrow’ calamity, study suggests | The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/atlantic-ocean-currents-collapse-freeze-b2494791.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2024, 12:05:10 PM

Must be a hot topic. Another one.

Scientists say the Gulf stream could collapse by 2025 (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/scientists-say-the-gulf-stream-could-collapse-by-2025/ss-BB1ia2By?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=727cadbe3b514e5f91762bb740dbac08&ei=22#image=1)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2024, 12:06:54 PM

it could

I suppose many things are possible

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2024, 12:51:22 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/A3e77SC.png) (https://i.imgur.com/xfGcmlB.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/lTXu8Ht.png) (https://i.imgur.com/ADOt42t.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/0P4k21N.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2024, 01:39:37 PM

you have yer own thread for this ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2024, 04:22:30 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/AEjNCCs.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 02:34:12 PM

Vibrations in cooling system mean new Georgia nuclear reactor will again be delayed | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/georgia-power-vogtle-nuclear-reactor-delay-f9492baa97be46bfdaa555907454700c)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2024, 07:28:35 AM

The race to understand polar ice sheets | Knowable Magazine (https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/food-environment/2023/race-to-understand-polar-ice-sheets)

It is POSSIBLE this thing spirals out of control quickly and shockingly and bad things happen.  I hope that possibility is remote.  Whatever rather lame efforts "we" have started to limit this are of course pathetic and mostly nonsensible.

Glaciologist Richard Alley of Penn State University has studied polar ice for more than 35 years. In the 1990s, his ice-core research shocked the world with the startling finding that the last Ice Age did not come to a gradual end (https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691160832/the-two-mile-time-machine), as long believed, but ended abruptly and violently, with temperatures rising sharply in three short years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2024, 08:56:00 AM

so, all the guys before him were wrong

was - is he really correct?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2024, 09:00:01 AM

I'm not sure who before him was wrong, or published different findings, but maybe so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2024, 09:58:13 AM

so publishing an incorrect finding doesnt mean your wrong

interesting

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2024, 10:32:26 AM

I still don't understand who published an incorrect finding here.  Folks do learn things that may contradict previous beliefs.  It happens.

Now, if someone did publish somewhere that the Ice Ages ended gradually, that would be a contrary finding, but I don't see evidence anyone did.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2024, 11:30:06 AM

And without firsthand evidence, we may NOT be able to discern with 100% certainty how gradually the ice ages ended, and thus which is the correct and the incorrect finding. 

In this case they apparently found evidence from ice cores that better supports a rapid end to ice ages than a gradual end. But as with most things in science, it is a hypothesis based upon that evidence that could potentially be falsified by newer evidence or better understanding of what that evidence means.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2024, 11:33:23 AM

Sure, every such finding is subject to review and further evidence and analysis.  Maybe he's wrong, I don't know of course.  It is a surprisingly finding.

Maybe it's currently a topic of heated debate and research.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2024, 11:39:05 AM

I recall "back in the day" some HEATED discussions/seminars/publications/etc. about a problem in chemistry that amost led to fisticuffs in one incident.  The odd thing is that the issue wasn't all that important, it's was purely theoretical.  One side was championed by a professor at Purdue named Herb Brown, who was not liked by much of anyone.  The other side had a number of proponents.  Each would publish one finding, and the other would publish another.  It got rather amusing, to me anyway.

Brown's real point, he said later, was that folks were too eager to agree on a thing, and any junior faculty who disagreed couldn't get their stuff published.  Brown was well established (he later one a Nobel).  He also had a legion of Indian post docs in his group so he could crank out papers (and did).  No Americans wanted to work for him, apparently.  

I don't think it was ever really decided, though I think Brown's "side" lost out.  I had occasion to speak to him very briefly at a conference, he actually spoke to me first, I was two seats over, a young lad probably looking out of place.

I did think he made his overall point, which was a good reminder.  Consensus can be reached all too quickly because it's comfortable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2024, 02:05:45 PM

Don't like this at all. Send some water to the East Coast and South. This sucks for us.

Army Corps increasing Lake Okeechobee releases to Fort Myers-Sanibel area (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/army-corps-increasing-lake-okeechobee-releases-to-fort-myers-sanibel-area/ar-BB1ihkna?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=30aa5ef49bd1464da8f56a780a1ed758&ei=14)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2024, 02:10:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 14, 2024, 11:33:23 AM

Sure, every such finding is subject to review and further evidence and analysis.  Maybe he's wrong, I don't know of course.  It is a surprisingly finding.

Maybe it's currently a topic of heated debate and research. 

And the more important bit about that article was that the discussion of ice ages was merely a mention of his past accomplishments. 

The bigger question--and I suggest everyone read it--is what happens to ice sheets as they melt? How quickly do they break off? 

Because as with most things related to climate change, if something big (like meters of sea level rise) happens slowly and gradually over two centuries, in many ways it's likely that we can adjust to it as a society with relatively minor dislocations that occur as economic shifts happening over generations. If that same something big happens over the course of a decade, it's a catastrophe. 

We want to understand which is which. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2024, 10:49:19 PM

my issue is with the fact that new "findings" are presented by the consensus as fact or knowledge

and not as the latest  hypothesis

gives experts a bad name when things don't work out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2024, 10:51:04 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2024, 02:05:45 PM

Don't like this at all. Send some water to the East Coast and South. This sucks for us.

Army Corps increasing Lake Okeechobee releases to Fort Myers-Sanibel area (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/army-corps-increasing-lake-okeechobee-releases-to-fort-myers-sanibel-area/ar-BB1ihkna?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=30aa5ef49bd1464da8f56a780a1ed758&ei=14)

easy fix, move millions of folks to North and South Dakotas for retirement

not many jobs, but gazillions of gallons of fresh clean water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 05:24:17 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2024, 10:49:19 PM

my issue is with the fact that new "findings" are presented by the consensus as fact or knowledge

and not as the latest  hypothesis

gives experts a bad name when things don't work out

I don't see that, at all.  Maybe the reportage suggests it, but the scientists would not, in my experience.  Scientific "journalism" is not very good, and that is the source of information for most folks.  The original science publication would be replete with "maybes".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 05:28:56 AM

When I cited this note, I noted there was a hopefully MINOR chance that something drastic could happen in a short period of time.  We just don't know how fast something COULD happen.  I've read notions about "runaway greenhouse effects" where the tundra all melts, ice sheets collapse, and things really go to H in a short period of time, a few years.  Nobody knows is any of that is really likely.  

The other point is "we" aren't really doing much of anything about this beyond throwing a good bit of money at it.  There is no "plan" beyond that, chanting slogans and whatnot.  If "we" really have to reach "net zero" by 2050, a truly massive amount of work would be needed, so massive it's inconceivable most countries could afford it.  And most/all would throw money at it and pretend, while noting we're off target, by a lot, year after year.

And hold meetings in resort areas to clamor for more "action", with no plan at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 06:02:22 AM

document (psu.edu) (https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=432801c4c991bc7f7dcfebb7db071dfe8cf276b1)

This is one publication by that author/research group.  It's full of caveats as usual.  

Paleoclimatic records show that the Greenland Ice Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-sheet changes. In contrast, there are no documented major ice-sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes. Moreover, snowfall has increased when the climate warmed, but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless; increased accumulation in the ice sheet's center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges. Most documented forcings and ice-sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years, but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings. In particular, regions near the ice margin have responded within decades. However, major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia. The paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur. The evidence suggests nearly total ice-sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values, but this threshold is poorly defined (perhaps as little as 2 C or more than 7 C). Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming, or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature, without having been recorded

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2024, 08:18:02 AM

Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy

ya think?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2024, 08:22:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 05:24:17 AM

I don't see that, at all.  Maybe the reportage suggests it, but the scientists would not, in my experience.  Scientific "journalism" is not very good, and that is the source of information for most folks.  The original science publication would be replete with "maybes".

as CNN or the wall street journal

apparently, the scientists don't have the method or don't consider it important enough to correct said journalists
I suppose we the people should dig deeper in the original scientific publications and maybe more well informed, but don't consider it important enuff

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 08:41:36 AM

Of the science reports I see in mass media, nearly all of them are misleading, at least the ones about which I have some knowledge or take the time to read what the scientists actually reported.  Often it's a point of no real import.  And no, a scientist has no real mechanism to alter or explain better such a report, letter to the editor I suppose, which few read.

Judith Curry has some long discussions about this very topic.

One issue here is the original publication may state "Evidence suggests that X happened back when" and it gets reported that "Scientists report X happened back when".

The science "journalists" are no better than regular journalists.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2024, 09:29:20 AM

commie hacks lookin to make a buck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 09:32:07 AM

Most folks look to make a buck, commies as well as capitalists, to the extent such things exist today.

A "science writer" for some newspaper might have taken a few science courses in college, that's about it.  Sports writers by contrast are paragons of virtue and superb analysis and writing skills.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2024, 09:33:09 AM

how did it go?

Drunken bitter old sportswriters

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 09:36:45 AM

I've had some personal interaction with "reporters", in every case I could tell right off they had a story in mind.  If I countered their story line, it was edited out or ignored.  They start with a conclusion and then fit any evidence to that conclusion.

60 Minutes was really bad at this back in the day, probably still are.  They hacked up some topics and later got excoriated by "experts", but the folks watching never heard about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 15, 2024, 10:53:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 09:36:45 AM

I've had some personal interaction with "reporters", in every case I could tell right off they had a story in mind.  If I countered their story line, it was edited out or ignored.  They start with a conclusion and then fit any evidence to that conclusion.

60 Minutes was really bad at this back in the day, probably still are.  They hacked up some topics and later got excoriated by "experts", but the folks watching never heard about it.

I saw a tech writer do this recently. Came up with a story. Wrote the story. Then at presumably the last minute had one of our competitors that they reached out to for comment get back to them, and the competitor basically replied that nothing about the story's thesis was accurate... Which became the last two paragraphs of the article. 

But for someone who only reads the headline and skims the first half of an article before getting bored, they now think that the completely inaccurate thing is true. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 15, 2024, 11:03:18 AM

How science reporting works:

• Scientist spends years studying and learning something novel that is worthy of actually getting published in a peer-reviewed journal!
• Scientist writes the paper, which is incredibly complex and usually very limited in scope, discussing one previously-unknown aspect of a wider issue. 
• Scientist submits the paper to a journal, it passes peer review, and is published. This is the last time the scientist is involved.
• The journal wants people to subscribe to the journal, so they issue a press release talking about the scientist's paper. It is by definition a crude summary, and because they want to generate buzz, the press release extrapolates that very limited scope of the findings to "what it might possibly mean". 
• A science reporter is looking for stories, receives the press release, and decides to write a story based on the findings. The reporter doesn't read (and probably wouldn't understand) the actual published paper, and relies on the journal's press release.
• The science reporter doesn't want to just parrot the press release, so decides to further embellish the possible "what it might possibly mean" to make the article sexier. 
• The science reporter has an editor, who doesn't read the original paper (obv) nor the journal's press release, only the science reporter's article. The editor then proceeds to make as wide-ranging and clickbaity of a headline as possible to get people to read the article. The headline is likely wildly over-broad and possibly misleading.
• The article then gets circulated on social media, to people who don't read the original paper (ew!), nor the journal's press release, nor the actual article. They assume that what the headline says is exactly what the scientists did, and either trumpet it as truth or argue against it. 

Everyone then pats their own back and congratulates themselves for being, like, almost a scientist!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2024, 11:12:17 AM

I mentioned a while back, when I was working I got Science and Nature and a few other journals across my desk.  I had had some discussions about climate change with some other folks, so I TRIED to immerse myself in a few articles.  It was nearly impossible, for me anyway.  There was a ton of jargon, and I had constantly to check on whatever the heck the AIDCP7J model was.  That led of course to another article, which led to more, which .... rabbit holes.

And nearly as I could tell, these articles were mostly about some adjustment of a single parameter in some model (of which there are many) which might or might not be significant.

The idea was to make the model more in line with what was THOUGHT to have transpired historically in terms of rain patterns or temperatures or whatever else.  You can only have a predictive model based on what the historical guide tells you (or first principles, which doesn't apply here).

I concluded that any assessment by me of the validity of CC models and projections was impossible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2024, 02:39:42 PM

he Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant in Japan is currently the world’s largest nuclear power plant. As mighty as it may be, its reactors have been shut off for several years due to a cacophony of disasters and controversies. Recent developments suggest that may soon change, however.

https://www.iflscience.com/worlds-largest-nuclear-power-plant-has-been-idle-for-years-but-maybe-not-for-long-72968 (https://www.iflscience.com/worlds-largest-nuclear-power-plant-has-been-idle-for-years-but-maybe-not-for-long-72968)

The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant is located at a 404-hectare (1,000-acre) site between the towns of Kashiwazaki and Kariwa in Niigata Prefecture along the coast of Japan’s main island of Honshu. Its first reactor started producing power in 1985, while the last one swung into operation in 1994.

It’s operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), the largest electric utility in Japan that also runs the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (or, nowadays, runs the clean-up operations there).

Made up of seven boiling water reactor units, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa has a potential total output of 8.212 million kilowatts. However, the colossal power planet is currently idle.

The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power plant was rocked by the Chūetsu offshore earthquake in 2007, forcing TEPCO to shut down its reactors for nearly two years. Two reactors were temporarily restarted, but they were turned off again in 2012 in the wake of the Fukushima disaster a year earlier, which sparked a total shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Japan.

While Japan has since opened a few of its nuclear reactors, those at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa have remained inactive for almost 12 years.


According to some recent reports though, the power station is back on the path to reopening. In December 2023, Japanese nuclear safety regulators lifted an operational ban imposed on the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant two years prior, according to Reuters.

Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority barred TEPCO from operating Kashiwazaki-Kariwa in 2021 after numerous safety breaches were highlighted. Per the Associated Press, unauthorized people were reportedly allowed to enter “sensitive areas” of the facility, raising concern that it would be vulnerable to terrorist attacks.

After improving its safety management systems, TEPCO will now be able to apply for local permission to restart operations at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant.

However, there are still many hurdles to overcome before Kashiwazaki-Kariwa is pumping out energy again. Many people in Japan distrust TEPCO over their handling of the Fukushima disaster, plus locals in Kashiwazaki and Kariwa remain uneasy about nuclear power stations being in their neighborhoods.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2024, 10:48:33 AM

Gonna be a harsh winter week here in the ATX, your thoughts and prayers are welcome...

(https://i.imgur.com/yPfQSxP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2024, 10:49:41 AM

Pretty breezy for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2024, 10:51:40 AM

I'll take this.

(https://i.imgur.com/QifNcOf.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2024, 10:52:09 AM

Played golf yesterday. Didn't even get to the first tee before I deemed it warm enough to take off the 1/4-zip pullover. 

Playing again today. Admittedly the weather could be a little poor, as we're getting more rainstorms in so I might deal with some light rain. But I'm playing anyway to make good use of my day off, since due to various things I hadn't played for ~6 weeks before yesterday. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2024, 10:57:56 AM

too windy for golf in Texas

don't move there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2024, 07:42:39 AM

The Atlantic Ocean could soon be closed off by a ring of furious volcanoes (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-atlantic-ocean-could-soon-be-closed-off-by-a-ring-of-furious-volcanoes/ar-BB1izyVB?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=8087518618b7407eba360cbaaccbd708&ei=21)


(https://i.imgur.com/ZtPqxyM.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 07:48:10 AM

Yellowstone COULD erupt also and cause issues.

A lot of things COULD happen. 

We have our flight over the Big P in 16 days.  I think we have exit row seats.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 08:00:30 AM

Now, he and his colleagues are now arguing that a subduction zone, which currently lurks under the Strait of Gibraltar will eventually “invade” the Atlantic.
This will then lead to the formation of a "subduction system" in this ocean – in other words, a line of volcanoes along the coastlines of Africa and Iberia, or an Atlantic Ring of Fire.
What's more, this will all happen "soon" from now, in geological terms – at least 20 million years from now.

The Gibraltar subduction zone – known as the Gibraltar Arc – was once very active, but it has “significantly slowed down in the past millions of years,” according to Duarte’s research, published in the journal Geology.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2024, 08:45:35 AM

I just hope my money wasn't used for Duarte’s research

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 08:55:35 AM

It probably was, funding for "research" from government is pretty common, and I'd opine usually the result is, at best, interesting to a handful of people.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2024, 09:03:47 AM

Duarte and his ilk wouldn't want me incharge of the purse strings 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 09:16:05 AM

The notion, I think, is that eventually basic research leads someone somewhere to something.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 10:26:05 AM

Chicago sues oil companies for impacts of climate change | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4480345-chicago-sues-oil-companies-for-impacts-of-climate-change/)

If this went to court (which I doubt), these cities might find an unwanted outcome.

How does this line up with free speech?  Commercials basically are designed to deceive in some fashion, I'm not sure there are any that are completely open and honest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2024, 10:50:20 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 10:26:05 AM

Chicago sues oil companies for impacts of climate change | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4480345-chicago-sues-oil-companies-for-impacts-of-climate-change/)

If this went to court (which I doubt), these cities might find an unwanted outcome.

How does this line up with free speech?  Commercials basically are designed to deceive in some fashion, I'm not sure there are any that are completely open and honest.

Only the drug commercials. 

Taking this may cause death.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 10:55:09 AM

I don't think they are open and honest completely either.  They just have that legalism in them.

The whole intent of any commercial is to deceive.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2024, 10:58:18 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 10:55:09 AM

I don't think they are open and honest completely either.  They just have that legalism in them.

The whole intent of any commercial is to deceive. 

My wife worked for a pharma company for 38 years.

She was in communications. She would have stuff go through internal review, and then submit to the FDA, who would come back with "you can't say this, or you need to say this", etc. It took a long time - sometimes up to a year - to get an ad or brochure approved.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2024, 10:02:38 PM

let's check the commercials by the city of Chicago

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2024, 11:09:49 PM

LIBERAL, Kan. (KSNW) – The Ogallala Aquifer Summit is set for March 18-19 in Liberal at the Seward County Fairgrounds. It will be the third time it has been held since 2018.

The Ogallala is a vast underground reservoir that covers 174,000 square miles and touches parts of South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Texas. Some estimates indicate the aquifer is rapidly depleting, and in 50 years, 70% of it will be diminished.

In Kansas, the Ogallala covers most of the western one-third of the state. It is estimated that 95% of groundwater pumped from the aquifer each year is for irrigated agriculture, though it also supports livestock and municipal needs. The aquifer supports approximately $35 billion in crop production. If water depletion in the aquifer continues, Kansas land values may drop by millions.

Ogallala Aquifer on track to 70% depletion in 40-45 years
“One of the key values that I see to the Ogallala Aquifer Summit is the opportunity to hear from other states on the condition of the aquifer in their region, discuss shared challenges and learn ideas that may be adapted to Kansas in order to improve our water management,” said Susan Metzger, director of the Kansas Water Institute at Kansas State University.

Metzger added researchers and water specialists from each state in the Ogallala Aquifer region have prepared updates on their water management progress for the summit.

Topics include the following:


New opportunities with conservation-related legislation.
Understanding water risk as part of climate risk and economic risk.
Advances in science and data application.
The power of peer networks.
Workforce and leadership development

The summit is open to all interested. General registration is $150, and students are $75.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 26, 2024, 04:18:57 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/RhH4ow1.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 26, 2024, 08:23:59 PM

Too hot there...

79 and the golf course is open here

Way better 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 26, 2024, 11:13:33 PM

89 is fine.  It's not "too hot" for anything really, until it breaks about 102.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2024, 07:04:43 AM

Very nice.

(https://i.imgur.com/rkZzbd8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2024, 07:20:21 AM

Cedar Rapids, IA

(https://i.imgur.com/G6xvch6.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2024, 07:26:59 AM

71 to 13? In the same day??

I vaguely remember that crap.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2024, 07:50:58 AM

The trees here are just starting to bud, and a few are blooming.  I remember in Cincy thinking early March was spring, but it wasn't.  Usually.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2024, 07:52:29 AM

danger here with temps in the upper 60s and 70s that trees and others will start to bud

then take a hard freeze and there goes the harvest

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2024, 11:46:14 AM

71 to 13.  

I will never move there.

You're Welcome For My Support

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2024, 12:26:22 PM

It's 66°F here and cloudy, and the leaves are budding on trees, not yet green, some trees are blooming.  We can still have a freeze which of course hits the fruit trees hardest.

Low tomorrow night predicted at 33°F, then nothing below 42°F in the ten day.

Looking at Tokyo ...  50s during the day, fair bit of rain.  We leave March 7 and arrive March 9.  I'm hoping the hotel maybe lets us into a room quite early, flight arrives at 5:05 AM.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2024, 12:33:23 PM

We're likely done with any freezes, specifically a hard freeze.  We rarely get one after February.  We'll have some cool, gloomy days in the 40s and 50s through the first half of March, but we won't see another hard freeze until probably next January.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2024, 12:50:57 PM

How record February heat is priming the US for crop-wrecking ‘whiplash’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4489635-how-record-february-heat-is-priming-the-us-for-crop-wrecking-whiplash/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2024, 01:22:04 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/C1aP3aW.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2024, 01:28:14 PM

January was the coldest in Austin in 17 years.  February has been pretty average here.

As always we need a lot more rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2024, 04:42:59 PM

This is NUTS.

Chicago Bracing for 'Mind-Boggling' 75 Degree Temperature Drop (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/chicago-bracing-for-mind-boggling-75-degree-temperature-drop/ar-BB1iZV00?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=e25c54f1c36e49abb96c91b83ffb156a&ei=17)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2024, 05:23:16 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2024, 04:42:59 PM

This is NUTS.

Chicago Bracing for 'Mind-Boggling' 75 Degree Temperature Drop (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/chicago-bracing-for-mind-boggling-75-degree-temperature-drop/ar-BB1iZV00?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=e25c54f1c36e49abb96c91b83ffb156a&ei=17)

Yup-- no thanks.

Sure hope they manage through it okay, though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2024, 11:41:45 PM

we're all doomed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on February 28, 2024, 05:38:58 AM

Woken up by tornado sirens this morning. Not your typical February

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 28, 2024, 06:48:39 AM

Quote from: utee94 on February 27, 2024, 01:28:14 PM

January was the coldest in Austin in 17 years.  February has been pretty average here.

As always we need a lot more rain.

It's been a very cold winter here too. Talked to many of people who have been here 20+ years and they said this has been the coldest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 28, 2024, 07:10:16 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2024, 04:42:59 PM

This is NUTS.

Chicago Bracing for 'Mind-Boggling' 75 Degree Temperature Drop (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/chicago-bracing-for-mind-boggling-75-degree-temperature-drop/ar-BB1iZV00?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=e25c54f1c36e49abb96c91b83ffb156a&ei=17)

61° right now suppose drop 27° in by 11 tonite,winds moving quiker would be my guess

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 28, 2024, 07:26:25 AM

66°F here at the moment, dropping to 35°F tonight, so we're getting some of it.

A lot of trees think it's spring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 28, 2024, 08:27:07 AM

The front won't make it here. Tampa maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 28, 2024, 08:29:17 AM

it was 79 here yesterday afternoon

now at a brisk 9

expected high of 31

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2024, 03:28:09 AM

https://twitter.com/EEpartnership/status/1762856267545006127?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1762856267545006127%7Ctwgr%5Eba7c6e7bca3916fa49cf99273378b701259c93c8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FEEpartnership%2Fstatus%2F1762856267545006127%3Ft%3DLCFgyJj_da7XuUfRt46FmQ26s%3D19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2024, 08:39:13 AM

makes ya wonder how long before they need to be replaced

the batteries that is

ROI????

I'm gonna stop by the financial advisors office today - he deserves to see the new car

I told him a few years ago to put me into Green Energy - seems to be OK

I'm gonna suggest battery companies - see what he says

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 09:09:18 AM

It may be late to play the battery company angle.  I didn't see any of these traded as stocks, at least not the first five.

Commercial Storage Battery Manufacturers in United States

• Lithion Battery.
• Power Sonic.
• Powerstar, Inc.
• SEM Power.
• Urban Electric Power.
• Sun Valley Solar Solutions.
• Coldwell Solar.
• SMUD.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 09:11:48 AM

At least with fixed position industrial batteries, folks can control heat and discharge/recharge rates etc., so they should last longer than in cars.

I can't see batteries being much of a factor on the grid in the US for a long time, if ever.  I wonder if we could use excess power to generate hydrogen and then store than and run fuel cells as needed, but it sounds expensive, to me.  The hydro storage angle looks more probable, though then you need dams.

Vital to grid reliability, today, the U.S. pumped storage hydropower fleet includes about 22 gigawatts of electricity-generating capacity and 550 gigawatt-hours of energy storage with facilities in every region of the country.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2024, 07:57:56 AM

this from one of the battery reps I sell to phone companies and internet providers

(https://i.imgur.com/Oksb20B.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2024, 08:27:08 AM

That bill only allocates $37 billion a year, which really is chump change for the country.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2024, 09:13:27 AM

but not for my industry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 02, 2024, 04:31:49 PM

How do you rank the following phenomena, when combined with 45 mph winds?

• a) freezing rain downpour
• b) large balls of hail
• c) the combination of heavy snow and sub zero temperatures
• d) sand and dust

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 02, 2024, 05:59:48 PM

https://youtu.be/8m6TcNoqIaY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2024, 09:19:46 AM

The trees are really starting to bud around here.  That is always an uplifting sign to me.  In a month, we'll be into azaleas and dogwoods and it is pretty amazing in places.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 03, 2024, 09:25:19 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 02, 2024, 04:31:49 PM

How do you rank the following phenomena, when combined with 45 mph winds?

• a) freezing rain downpour
• b) large balls of hail
• c) the combination of heavy snow and sub zero temperatures
• d) sand and dust

Good, bad, or ugly?

UGLY  b, a, c, d

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2024, 09:51:48 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 02, 2024, 04:31:49 PM

How do you rank the following phenomena, when combined with 45 mph winds?

• a) freezing rain downpour
• b) large balls of hail
• c) the combination of heavy snow and sub zero temperatures
• d) sand and dust

1. a
2. b
3. d
4. c

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 03, 2024, 10:44:40 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 10:26:05 AM

Chicago sues oil companies for impacts of climate change | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4480345-chicago-sues-oil-companies-for-impacts-of-climate-change/)

If this went to court (which I doubt), these cities might find an unwanted outcome.

How does this line up with free speech?  Commercials basically are designed to deceive in some fashion, I'm not sure there are any that are completely open and honest.

suing oil companies for tv ads...lol. 

how you know these climate change freaks are unserious idiots and should never be taken seriously and only laughed at; why don't they sue the US military- which is BY FAR the largest single emitter of hydrocarbons in the entire world. why don't they sue private jet charting companies or manufacturers? why don't they pressure US politicians to condemn China or India in the UN with a resolution for their emissions or try to bring forth law suites against China or India in the ICJ for their emissions? 

Nah, let's sue oil companies for tv ads, ban gas lawn mowers (lol @ California) and gas stoves. That'll show 'em. That'll save the planet! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 03, 2024, 10:46:06 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2024, 10:50:20 AM

Only the drug commercials.

Taking this may cause death.

kinda weird how the US is one of only two nations in the entire world that allows pharmaceutical companies to directly advertise to consumers at all. we do have the fattest, sickest, and dumbest population of the entire developed world, so...'MERICA baby.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2024, 10:48:54 AM

The "climate freaks/advocates" look for publicity, that's what drives most of their actions.  This isn't unique to them of course.  AGs also thrive on publicity.  And anyone else in elected office.

I don't recall any oil company commercials that claimed climated change was wrong.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2024, 11:12:19 AM

Quote from: Mdot21 on March 03, 2024, 10:44:40 AM

suing oil companies for tv ads...lol.

how you know these climate change freaks are unserious idiots and should never be taken seriously and only laughed at; why don't they sue the US military- which is BY FAR the largest single emitter of hydrocarbons in the entire world. why don't they sue private jet charting companies or manufacturers? why don't they pressure US politicians to condemn China or India in the UN with a resolution for their emissions or try to bring forth law suites against China or India in the ICJ for their emissions?

Nah, let's sue oil companies for tv ads, ban gas lawn mowers (lol @ California) and gas stoves. That'll show 'em. That'll save the planet!

Chicago is gonna sue volcanos too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on March 03, 2024, 11:16:13 AM

Can we sue chicago for lying in their muni bond offering documents?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2024, 11:19:47 AM

There could come a point, maybe, where nearly all folks start to believe our climate is warming.  Some still will think it's natural of course.  The thing is, to me, this reported 1.4°C (2.5°F) mean rise in temperatures over the past century is not readily noticeable in casual observation.  I asked this question before, and most of us here do think it's a bit warmed now than when we were kids.

But of course it still gets cold in winter in most places, and it still snows at times.  We had heat waves and droughts and storms in the past, the 1930s apparently.

But if we stipulate this is caused by human activity, and we end up with 90% believing the general model, it will be way too late to act seriously.

It already is in my view.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2024, 11:20:04 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on March 03, 2024, 11:16:13 AM

Can we sue chicago for lying in their muni bond offering documents?

You can sue a ham sammich.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2024, 11:22:00 AM

Induction ovens with big batteries solve lots of problems | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2024/02/29/induction-ovens-with-big-batteries-solve-lots-of-problems/?fbclid=IwAR0RUID9zf7fdp1c1NFwELPywQB1LJW8AnuKHuS0-RLloWcU0rmQ2NYnsJM)

Induction stoves are a great, safe way to save on electricity costs and can heat much quicker, safer, and more accurately than natural gas or propane stoves. But a new breed of these stoves includes huge batteries, which opens up new opportunities by only requiring a 120V outlet, offering 40-sec water boiling, backup power to other appliances like the refrigerator, and even IRA tax rebates. Let’s take a look at two of these new models and try to understand if it makes sense for an oven to have a huge battery over a more centralized Powerwall type of home backup battery.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2024, 11:37:10 AM

I like our induction OK, but I really miss my Wolf.

(https://i.imgur.com/ZBJr6L3.png)

And the Sub Zero too. 

(https://i.imgur.com/1b39bnk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2024, 11:41:43 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on March 03, 2024, 11:16:13 AM

Can we sue chicago for lying in their muni bond offering documents?

Be my guest. While you're, sue the CTU for ruining the City.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2024, 12:46:07 PM

If I had a gas stove, I'd pay to get induction.  I don't like the battery idea though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2024, 02:55:09 PM

Nothing beats a high end gas stove.

Never seen an electric stove in a restaurant. Ever.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2024, 04:31:02 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2023/02/08/chefs-induction-stoves/#

It’s a slow evolution.  My son in law loves induction also.  He’s a CIA grad. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 03, 2024, 04:48:01 PM

This is good for US

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/helium-discovered-minnesota-us-supplies-dwindle

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 10:37:31 AM

Heat record broken for ninth-straight month | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4516011-heat-record-broken-ninth-straight-month-february/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 10:38:32 AM

Another new study warned (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4511024-arctic-sea-could-be-ice-free-by-the-2030s-new-study-warns/) that as temperatures continue to rise, Arctic Ocean sea ice is melting at an even faster pace than previously thought and the region could experience its first ice-free conditions sometime before the 2030s.

One of these days, Alice, one of these days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 10:50:14 AM

Opinion: I’m a climate scientist. If you knew what I know, you’d be terrified too | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/07/opinions/climate-scientist-scare-doom-anxiety-mcguire/index.html)

Not much here beyond the scare part, in my view.  Some realism would help, I think, instead of constant scare opinion pieces.

And maybe the outline of some PLAN.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 07, 2024, 11:23:11 AM

my plan is to evolve with change, cause change is coming, we're not working hard enough to stop it.

I don't live on the ocean, if it gets 10 degrees warmer here, even in July & August, I'll be OK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 11:24:53 AM

Me as well, and of course the midline forecast calls for a rise of perhaps 1-1.5°C by 2100.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 11:30:16 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 10:50:14 AM

Opinion: I’m a climate scientist. If you knew what I know, you’d be terrified too | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/07/opinions/climate-scientist-scare-doom-anxiety-mcguire/index.html)

Not much here beyond the scare part, in my view.  Some realism would help, I think, instead of constant scare opinion pieces.

And maybe the outline of some PLAN.

jackasses like the fellow that wrote this article have no plan, and even if he did it wouldn't be economically feasible nor possible to implement. can't shut down the single biggest carbon emitter in the world- the US military. can't stop china or india from emitting carbon like it's going out of style. definitely can't stop rich fcks from chilling on their superyachts which are essentially just mini-cruise ships in the south of france or flying private jets everywhere they go- like Taylor Swift who flew a private jet to go somewhere 20 miles away- and emitting carbon at rates per capita that are fcking astounding. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 11:32:31 AM

The U.S. Military Emits More Carbon Dioxide Into the Atmosphere Than Entire Countries Like Denmark or Portugal - Inside Climate News (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18012022/military-carbon-emissions/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA6KWvBhAREiwAFPZM7rWs97430fk_lVrAesd4C8WaxGCO4lCYNM1Anf28Y0ZbL4KL-EWP5xoCANEQAvD_BwE)

The U.S. military's oil use and emissions are falling. The U.S. Defence Logistics Agency, which oversees oil buying, said 84 million barrels were purchased in 2022, down almost 15 million from 2018. Emissions in 2022, meanwhile, fell to 48 million tonnes from 51 million tonnes the previous year.

They are not the single largest carbon emitter in the world, that would be China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 11:35:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 11:32:31 AM

The U.S. Military Emits More Carbon Dioxide Into the Atmosphere Than Entire Countries Like Denmark or Portugal - Inside Climate News (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18012022/military-carbon-emissions/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA6KWvBhAREiwAFPZM7rWs97430fk_lVrAesd4C8WaxGCO4lCYNM1Anf28Y0ZbL4KL-EWP5xoCANEQAvD_BwE)

The U.S. military's oil use and emissions are falling. The U.S. Defence Logistics Agency, which oversees oil buying, said 84 million barrels were purchased in 2022, down almost 15 million from 2018. Emissions in 2022, meanwhile, fell to 48 million tonnes from 51 million tonnes the previous year.

They are not the single largest carbon emitter in the world, that would be China.

And our military is weaker. Yay team.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 07, 2024, 11:38:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 10:50:14 AM

Opinion: I’m a climate scientist. If you knew what I know, you’d be terrified too | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/07/opinions/climate-scientist-scare-doom-anxiety-mcguire/index.html)

Not much here beyond the scare part, in my view.  Some realism would help, I think, instead of constant scare opinion pieces.

And maybe the outline of some PLAN.

The problem is that climate change is either going to be a slow and manageable process that we can all sort of work through over the span of generations, or it will be a "tipping point" sort of scenario where things get REALLY bad, REALLY quickly, and we're all well and truly fked. And we don't really know which is which. 

I hope it's the former, because we're not doing squat about it. I fear it's the latter, because we're not doing squat about it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 11:58:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 11:32:31 AM

The U.S. Military Emits More Carbon Dioxide Into the Atmosphere Than Entire Countries Like Denmark or Portugal - Inside Climate News (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18012022/military-carbon-emissions/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA6KWvBhAREiwAFPZM7rWs97430fk_lVrAesd4C8WaxGCO4lCYNM1Anf28Y0ZbL4KL-EWP5xoCANEQAvD_BwE)

The U.S. military's oil use and emissions are falling. The U.S. Defence Logistics Agency, which oversees oil buying, said 84 million barrels were purchased in 2022, down almost 15 million from 2018. Emissions in 2022, meanwhile, fell to 48 million tonnes from 51 million tonnes the previous year.

They are not the single largest carbon emitter in the world, that would be China.

oh yes, it is. the single largest single emitter of carbon in the entire world is the US military. China as an entire country is the largest emitter as a country, but that's not it's government or one agency within it's government or one single entity. That is the entire fcking country of 1.4 billion people. You know, like 1.1 billion MORE people than we have here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 11:59:15 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 11:35:24 AM

And our military is weaker. Yay team.

Lol. Our military is most definitely not weaker than China's military.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 12:06:08 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 07, 2024, 11:38:32 AM

The problem is that climate change is either going to be a slow and manageable process that we can all sort of work through over the span of generations, or it will be a "tipping point" sort of scenario where things get REALLY bad, REALLY quickly, and we're all well and truly fked. And we don't really know which is which.

I hope it's the former, because we're not doing squat about it. I fear it's the latter, because we're not doing squat about it.

oh sure we are. we're blowing sh*t up all over the world, even blowing up pipelines in Europe which released more green house gases in one single act than any single man-made caused pollution event in history. one might call it the greatest act of eco-terrorism in history. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LasrD6SZkZk

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 07, 2024, 12:23:52 PM

I get a kick out of people getting their panties in a wad over "climate change". I have news for those people. The Earth's climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth had a climate. 

I always ask this question but I have yet to get a coherent answer. What should the mean temperature of the Earth be? And when has it ever been that temperature for more than a few years?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 12:23:55 PM

If we hit some tipping point where to goes exponential, "we" are in trouble.  If not, if it remains pretty gradual, most things can adjust, not everything, and somethings will adjust partially and have some issues.  The high end wine business is one item that can't really adjust in most cases, but there would still be plenty of decent wine from other areas.

They grow wine grapes in British Columbia in a pretty large way today.

As noted often, "we" are not doing anything like what would be needed to nip this in the bud.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 12:24:48 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 07, 2024, 12:23:52 PM

I get a kick out of people getting their panties in a wad over "climate change". I have news for those people. The Earth's climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth had a climate.

I always ask this question but I have yet to get a coherent answer. What should the mean temperature of the Earth be? And when has it ever been that temperature for more than a few years?

The concern is that the temperature apparently is changing more rapidly than it has in known history.  The mean temperature probably should be 15°C in some ideal case.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on March 07, 2024, 12:33:02 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 07, 2024, 12:23:52 PM

I get a kick out of people getting their panties in a wad over "climate change". I have news for those people. The Earth's climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth had a climate.

I always ask this question but I have yet to get a coherent answer. What should the mean temperature of the Earth be? And when has it ever been that temperature for more than a few years?

Typically the changes are over millions of years. Fast changes in climate were typically associated with widespread extinction events.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 07, 2024, 12:38:02 PM

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 07, 2024, 12:23:52 PM

I get a kick out of people getting their panties in a wad over "climate change". I have news for those people. The Earth's climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth had a climate.

I always ask this question but I have yet to get a coherent answer. What should the mean temperature of the Earth be? And when has it ever been that temperature for more than a few years?

We're humans. The mean temperature of the Earth should be whatever allows human society to sustain itself and [hopefully] flourish. A "wrong" temperature would be one that damages our ecosystem enough that it becomes a significant problem for the planet to support 7-10B people. 

The concern that *I* personally have is that we destabilize climate to the extent that we cause enough damage to our ecosystem that the food chain as we understand it is disrupted enough to make it impossible to grow enough food to support the world's population.

That's the worst case scenario. Not the concerns of people in Minnesota that their ice fishing industry will be disrupted, or Bordeaux France that it's no longer optimal for growing grapes for wine. Not gradual warming. Not a gradual increase in sea level. It's that we have a planet with 8B people and we can only grow enough food for 3B of them. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 02:52:18 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 11:59:15 AM

Lol. Our military is most definitely not weaker than China's military.

That's not what I meant. I mean it's weaker now than it was in 2018.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 03:08:18 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 02:52:18 PM

That's not what I meant. I mean it's weaker now than it was in 2018.

well yeah sure, that tends to happen when you stretch yourself thin and give away bunch of your munition stockpiles in a proxy war and can't reproduce new ones fast enough.

having said that, US certainly still has a significantly stronger, more advanced, more capable military than China and just about the entire world combined lol.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 07, 2024, 03:43:31 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 03:08:18 PM

having said that, US certainly still has a significantly stronger, more advanced, more capable military than China and just about the entire world combined lol.

To bring the thread back to topic...

...if the worst case scenario happens regarding climate change...

...we'll need it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 07, 2024, 04:17:56 PM

Scientists made a 'digital twin' of Earth to simulate possible natural disasters (https://www.space.com/digital-twin-earth-natural-disaster-climate-change)

"Digital Twin" is a pretty strong buzzword in my industry these days. 

Basically it means "a model". 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 07, 2024, 04:53:33 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 07, 2024, 04:17:56 PM

Scientists made a 'digital twin' of Earth to simulate possible natural disasters (https://www.space.com/digital-twin-earth-natural-disaster-climate-change)

"Digital Twin" is a pretty strong buzzword in my industry these days.

Basically it means "a model".

Yeah I've heard it a lot too, over the past few years.  It strikes me as silly and unnecessary but folks love their buzzwords.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 04:56:19 PM

Damn Millennials.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 05:21:21 PM

American Airlines sux.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 05:25:57 PM

I love AA. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 07, 2024, 06:56:34 PM

All airlines suck

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Mdot21 on March 07, 2024, 06:58:27 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 07, 2024, 04:17:56 PM

Scientists made a 'digital twin' of Earth to simulate possible natural disasters (https://www.space.com/digital-twin-earth-natural-disaster-climate-change)

"Digital Twin" is a pretty strong buzzword in my industry these days.

Basically it means "a model".

DigitalTwin sounds like a cool rap name or rap album 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 07:07:54 PM

I paid for first.  No monitors. Awful food inedible. Turbulence like a Cessna. Crappy wine. 🍷 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 07, 2024, 07:09:26 PM

Coulda stayed home 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2024, 10:11:21 PM

A new industrial-scale 'sand battery' has been announced for Finland, which packs 1 MW of power and a capacity of up to 100 MWh of thermal energy for use during those cold polar winters. The new battery will be about 10 times bigger than a pilot plant that’s been running since 2022.

The sand battery, developed by Polar Night Energy, is a clever concept. Basically, it’s a big steel silo of sand (or a similar solid material) that’s warmed up through a heat exchanger buried in the center, using excess electricity from the grid – say, that generated during a spike from renewable sources, when it’s cheap.

That energy can then be stored for months at a time, with reportedly very little loss, before being extracted as heat on demand. This could theoretically be converted back into electricity, although with some energy loss. But Polar Night says that the most efficient method is to just use the heat itself.

In a chilly place like Finland, that means feeding it into the local district heating system, which shares heat produced from industry or energy production through the community. Networks of pipes carry this heat as hot water or steam to warm up houses, buildings, even swimming pools. In this case, the new sand battery would be trialed in the district heating system of the Finnish municipality of Pornainen, run by a company called Loviisan Lämpö.


This new sand battery is expected to stand 13 m (42.7 ft) tall and 15 m (49.2 ft) wide, providing an output power of 1 MW and a capacity of 100 MWh. That, the companies claim, equates to a week’s worth of Pornainen’s heat demands in winter, or a month’s worth in summer. By comparison, Polar Night’s previous sand battery stands 4 x 7 m (13 x 23 ft), for a nominal power rating of 100 kW and a capacity of 8 MWh.

The new battery should also reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of the district heating system by 160 tonnes per year, translating to an almost 70% reduction. The sand itself will also be sustainably sourced – it’ll consist of crushed soapstone, which is a manufacturing byproduct of another local industry. This material can apparently conduct heat even better than regular old sand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 14, 2024, 10:52:03 AM

Woke up early AM with the motion sensor lights in the backyard going absolutely crazy due to wind. Whipping like hell around here today. 

And I guess it'll keep up most of the day...

(https://i.imgur.com/RSLgcQa.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 11:02:53 AM

Sounds like fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 14, 2024, 11:06:15 AM

Guessing I won't make it to the driving range...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 11:23:53 AM

Wind is the weather component I hate most. It sucks for boating.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2024, 11:38:23 AM

I thought San Diego had perfect weather

Finally getting some rain here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 14, 2024, 12:20:43 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 14, 2024, 11:38:23 AM

I thought San Diego had perfect weather

Finally getting some rain here

Yeah, pretty perfect. Our good weather is better than everyone else's good weather, and our bad weather is WAY better than bad weather in the rest of the country. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 12:25:17 PM

I know it's not weather, but that earthquake thing I would not like.

I'll take a hurricane with 5 days notice over an earthquake with no warning.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2024, 12:31:53 PM

no sense of adventure?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 14, 2024, 12:37:32 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 12:25:17 PM

I know it's not weather, but that earthquake thing I would not like.

I'll take a hurricane with 5 days notice over an earthquake with no warning.

I always find it funny that to a large extent, people are most scared of extreme weather (or events like earthquakes) they don't know, and comfortable with the ones they know.

I.e. people here wouldn't want to live in the Midwest (tornadoes) or Florida (hurricanes), but have basically grown numb to the earthquake risk. Most Midwesterners say (like you) that they wouldn't want to live out here because of earthquakes or in Florida where you might have to evacuate for a week every couple of years for a hurricane, but are numb towards tornadoes because the likelihood of being hit by them individually is VERY low. People in Florida probably are scared of earthquakes and tornadoes but (like you) are numb to hurricanes because at least you can see them coming and prepare. 

What funny little monkeys we are...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 12:39:39 PM

Lots of tornadoes here too. Hurricanes also spawn them off the outer the edges. Happens a lot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 14, 2024, 12:42:11 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 12:39:39 PM

Lots of tornadoes here too. Hurricanes also spawn them off the outer the edges. Happens a lot.

Did not know that, but of course it makes perfect sense as you mention it.

I wouldn't want to live in Florida due to the humidity--the hurricane thing is a lesser concern. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 12:50:37 PM

The humidity doesn't bother me. I mean, Chicago kinda sucked for that too.

Storm surge is spooky too. Kinda like Sunami's. We don't get the latter.

Bottom line is there are pluses and minuses wherever you live in this country.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2024, 01:32:03 PM

or any other country or continent in the world

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 14, 2024, 01:32:15 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2024, 12:50:37 PM

The humidity doesn't bother me. I mean, Chicago kinda sucked for that too.

Storm surge is spooky too. Kinda like Sunami's. We don't get the latter.

Bottom line is there are pluses and minuses wherever you live in this country.

Yeah, the humidity was something I hated in Chicago too lol. And with humidity comes mosquitoes, which I loathe. 

Admittedly you could make an argument that Florida winters are better than SoCal winters (ours are colder), but as a transplanted Midwesterner I don't mind the "cold" here, and IMHO the lack of humidity makes the summers better here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 09:14:08 AM

California summers never get warm enough. Unless you're someplace like The Valley.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 09:20:30 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Qf5tctu.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 09:25:30 AM

Quote from: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 09:14:08 AM

California summers never get warm enough. Unless you're someplace like The Valley.

One of my SIL lives in Bel Air, up off of Mulholland Drive. We were there in one July and it was 75 up there. We drove down to Sherman Oaks and it was 88.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 09:27:48 AM

the Texans prefer triple digits

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 09:30:51 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 09:20:30 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Qf5tctu.png)

bwar stated his opinion of Californa summers and I stated mine.  That's... you know... how message board conversations work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 09:32:28 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 09:27:48 AM

the Texans prefer triple digits

Low triples are workable.  Anything over 110 is pretty toasty.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 15, 2024, 09:32:56 AM

https://www.10tv.com/article/news/local/photos-damage-severe-weather-impact-central-ohio/530-455c9eb8-4925-4719-8270-dd67bbd7ae1c

One of my favorite Ohio haunts got blasted by a tornado. Indian Lake. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 09:36:35 AM

"Mass casualty" tornado near Columbus, this sounds terrible.  Any of our folks near there?

Edit: Looks like BB posted while I was away from desk for a minute.  Reports are bad, houses on fire, lots of casualties.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 09:46:51 AM

Man, I hope people are OK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 10:06:18 AM

I fear tornadoes

been too close too many times and know folks that have been hit

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 10:08:17 AM

Tornadoes are pretty rare this far south in Texas but I've been within a few miles a couple of times.  Close enough for the tornado sirens to go off and throw the kids in the bathtub of the most interior room we have...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 10:09:44 AM

they don't make bathtubs like they used to when I was a kid

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 10:29:38 AM

We don't have a bathtub anymore. Got rid of it when we did the gutting of this place.

It's a fortress. Roof and windows rated to 200 MPH. All masonry walls. If something were to take this house down, all of Florida would be gone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 10:38:14 AM

We've got bathtubs in all 4 bathrooms. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 10:40:50 AM

I've got one Jacuzzi tub in the daughter's bathroom

one of 3 bathrooms in the house

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 10:44:14 AM

Yeah our master bathroom has one of those giant triangular Jacuzzi tubs, built into a corner with a tile ledge built up around it.  The bathroom is huge so there's plenty of space for it, but it's just kind of old and dated looking now.  And we never use it.

My plan is to remove it, and replace it with one of those modern versions of a standalone clawfoot tub.  It could be jetted, or not.  Probably will be, just for resale value.  That would free up some room either to expand some storage, or increase the size of the walk-in shower (which is already pretty big but why not go bigger, with multi shower heads on BOTH sides? :)

Want to go from this:

(https://i.imgur.com/wyNDnrJ.png)


To this:

(https://i.imgur.com/mLw572G.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 10:46:36 AM

We took out both bathtubs. Very large walk-in shower in the master and standard size shower in the spare.

Nobody takes baths down here, and nobody really has kids - who would be most likely to use bathtubs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 10:49:34 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 10:46:36 AM

We took out both bathtubs. Very large walk-in shower in the master and standard size shower in the spare.

Nobody takes baths down here, and nobody really has kids - who would be most likely to use bathtubs.

Young moms always envision themselves taking a luxurious bath in a Jacuzzi tub.  Our neighborhood is built entirely for young families, and so are all of the houses within it.

Removing a tub from a master bedroom in this neighborhood, would pretty much make your house unsellable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 10:54:10 AM

Quote from: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 10:49:34 AM

Young moms always envision themselves taking a luxurious bath in a Jacuzzi tub.  Our neighborhood is built entirely for young families, and so are all of the houses within it.

Removing a tub from a master bedroom in this neighborhood, would pretty much make your house unsellable.

I used to have a young mom (old mom now) and in the 20+ years we had a jet tub, she maybe used it 40 times??

We have a hot tub as part of the pool. We use that, now that there are no kids to tend to. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 10:58:36 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 10:54:10 AM

I used to have a young mom (old mom now) and in the 20+ years we had a jet tub, she maybe used it 40 times??

We have a hot tub as part of the pool. We use that, now that there are no kids to tend to. :)

Oh I'm not saying young moms ACTUALLY use the jetted tub.  They just IMAGINE they will.  So any house without one, or indeed without a bathtub at all, isn't going to check the "dream" box.

Also, since every OTHER house in the neighborhood has one, you'd have to significantly reduce your asking price in order to sell your house.  You'd have to reduce it by roughly the $60K-$80K that a complete bathroom remodel would cost the buyers.

So, the jetted tub remains.

But I think I can rip out the old one and make the changes to the bathroom, without the cost of a full remodel.  All the plumbing can stay exactly where it is. Unless I expanded the walk-in shower, which isn't really necessary...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2024, 11:01:01 AM

Dig difference. You live in a bedroom community, and I live in a retirement community.

Had we still lived in a bedroom community, there is no way I'd pull out the tub, for the reasons you state.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 11:11:51 AM

one of my daughters used the jacuzzi regularly, especially in the cold dark winter

I keep telling myself I will try it as my old body has more pain, especially in the cold dark winter

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2024, 11:13:14 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2024, 11:11:51 AM

one of my daughters used the jacuzzi regularly, especially in the cold dark winter

I keep telling myself I will try it as my old body has more pain, especially in the cold dark winter

Yeah like bf, we have a hot tub/jacuzzi attached to the pool.  That's the one we use all the time (especially in the sort of cold somewhat dark winter).  And as I've gotten older, it DEFINITELY helps.  It's pretty much mandatory for me now, if I go out and run anything more than 4 or 5 miles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 15, 2024, 02:16:32 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4v2Yp0IL5U

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2024, 08:49:57 AM

https://theconversation.com/even-as-the-fusion-era-dawns-were-still-in-the-steam-age-217273 (https://theconversation.com/even-as-the-fusion-era-dawns-were-still-in-the-steam-age-217273)

Why are we still reliant on steam?
Boiling water takes a significant amount of energy, the highest by far of the common liquids we’re familiar with. Water takes about 2.5 times more energy to evaporate than ethanol does, and 60% more than ammonia liquids.

Why do we use steam rather than other gases? Water is cheap, nontoxic and easy to transform from liquid to energetic gas before condensing back to liquid for use again and again.

Steam has lasted this long because we have an abundance of water, covering 71% of Earth’s surface, and water is a useful way to convert thermal energy (heat) to mechanical energy (movement) to electrical energy (electricity). We seek electricity because it can be easily transmitted and can be used to do work for us in many areas.

When water is turned to steam inside a closed container, it expands hugely and increases the pressure. High pressure steam can store huge amounts of heat, as can any gas. If given an outlet, the steam will surge through it with high flow rates. Put a turbine in its exit path and the force of the escaping steam will spin the turbine’s blades. Electromagnets convert this mechanical movement to electricity. The steam condenses back to water and the process starts again.

Steam engines used coal to heat water to create steam to drive the engine. Nuclear fission splits atoms to make heat to boil water. Nuclear fusion will force heavy isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium and tritium) to fuse into helium-3 atoms and create even more heat – to boil water to make steam to drive turbines to make electricity.

If you looked only at the end process in most thermal power plants – coal, diesel, nuclear fission or even nuclear fusion – you would see the old technology of steam taken as far as it can be taken.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 20, 2024, 09:01:17 AM

Mostly warm this winter end of Feb and 1st 2 weeks this month we've hit 60s/70s a few times.Starting St.Paddy's Day it appears March will come in like a lamb and go out like a Lion,36 & snowing now here 2 miles from the Lake. Prolly have plowable snow Opening Day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2024, 09:14:44 AM

Chilly morning here. 50F at sunrise. About 60 now. High of 76.

Not normal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2024, 08:26:37 AM

The US battery storage market shattered deployment records across all segments in Q4 2023 – a 101% increase from the previous quarter.

The US battery storage sector saw 4,235 megawatts (MW) installed in Q4 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association’s (ACP) latest “US Energy Storage Monitor” report.


For the first time, the grid-scale segment exceeded 3 gigawatts (GW) deployed in one quarter and nearly topped 4 GW. With 3,983 MW of new capacity additions, the fourth quarter saw a 358% increase year-over-year.


https://electrek.co/2024/03/20/us-battery-storage-smashes-deployment-records-in-q4-2023/ (https://electrek.co/2024/03/20/us-battery-storage-smashes-deployment-records-in-q4-2023/)

California continued to lead installations in both MW and MWh terms, closely followed by Arizona and Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 21, 2024, 08:50:59 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2024, 09:14:44 AM

Chilly morning here. 50F at sunrise. About 60 now. High of 76.

Not normal.

So pretend it's Wisconsin, and put on a tee shirt. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2024, 09:00:43 AM

pretend it's Chicago!
go stand by the lake

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2024, 12:05:09 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 21, 2024, 08:50:59 AM

So pretend it's Wisconsin, and put on a tee shirt.

I went to do bloodwork this morning. It was 60 and I was wearing shorts and a t-shirt.

Old fella asked me if I was from the North, and I said "not anymore" with a shit-eating grin. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2024, 02:45:49 PM

As wind energy expands in the United States, concerns have grown about the potential for tall turbines to be a drag on property values.

But a new nationwide study that analyzed data from 300 million home sales and 60,000 wind turbines finds turbines' impact on home values is much lower than previously thought – about a 1% drop on average for a home with at least one wind turbine within six miles.

The study's authors find the most impact on home prices happens if a home is less than five miles from a turbine; the further a home is from a turbine, the less of a value hit it takes.

Even for homes close to a turbine, the study finds the negative impact to property value "diminishes and eventually disappears" within a decade.

To measure the impact, scientists set out with a very simple question, said Max Auffhammer, a study co-author and professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

"We really wanted to get at, can you see that thing from where your house is?" Auffhammer told CNN.

Getting the answer required building a massive mapping database of the distance between US homes and wind turbines, accounting for changes in topography and other factors.

"We calculated whether you can see the turbine – or whether there is a mountain in the way, for example – and if so, how the house value changes compared to other houses in the same area where residents cannot see the wind turbine," Wei Guo, the study's lead author and a researcher at the Italian Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, said in a statement.

The study also explored just how big wind turbines appear to the human eye. They found that, on average, a wind turbine five miles away appeared roughly the same size as an aspirin tablet held with an outstretched arm. If the same turbine were one mile away, it would appear the size of a golf ball.

Auffhammer said one of the study's most interesting findings was most of the dips in housing value were driven by early wind turbine installations in the US at the end of the 1990s. Closer to 2020, "we don't really find an effect," Auffhammer added.

https://www.ketv.com/article/how-much-are-wind-turbines-impacting-home-values/60233162?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&fbclid=IwAR2YYWxePwJ3ysh3H39YD6Nk58zV6eLvXAFe_DKv6qVLahqW1uVgri693nA (https://www.ketv.com/article/how-much-are-wind-turbines-impacting-home-values/60233162?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&fbclid=IwAR2YYWxePwJ3ysh3H39YD6Nk58zV6eLvXAFe_DKv6qVLahqW1uVgri693nA)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2024, 10:17:07 PM

Just looked at a radar map of the US

Looks like armageddon has arrived

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 23, 2024, 08:34:18 AM

Ah spring has sprung - since last sunday it's been more winter than the last month. High 20s last nite with snow cover and wind chill - 20°. Got sunny thu/fri but cold a.f.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2024, 08:39:35 AM

I'll be driving to Des Moines sunday through some type of precip

hopefully rain - not freezin rain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2024, 07:01:07 PM

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/27/climate/timekeeping-polar-ice-melt-earth-rotation/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2024, 10:19:08 AM

SLB to invest nearly $400 million in carbon capture company (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/28/schlumberger-to-invest-nearly-400-million-in-carbon-capture-company.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2024, 10:21:59 AM

I hope it helps

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2024, 08:45:43 AM

The largest uranium producer in the United States is ramping up work just south of Grand Canyon National Park on a long-contested project that largely has sat dormant since the 1980s.

The work is unfolding as global instability and growing demand drive uranium prices higher.

The Biden administration and dozens of other countries have pledged to triple the capacity of nuclear power worldwide in their battle against climate change, ensuring uranium will remain a key commodity for decades as the government offers incentives for developing the next generation of nuclear reactors and new policies take aim at Russia’s influence over the supply chain.


(https://i.imgur.com/sQkx5u6.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2024, 10:54:01 AM

The upper 10 kilometers of the Earth’s crust contains vast geothermal reserves, essentially awaiting human energy consumption to begin to tap into its unstinting power output—which itself yields no greenhouse gasses. And yet, geothermal sources currently produce only three-tenths of one percent of the world’s electricity. This promising energy source has long been limited by the extraordinary challenges of drilling holes that are deep enough to access the intense heat below the Earth’s surface.

Now, an MIT spin-off says it has found a solution in an innovative technology that could dramatically reduce the costs and timelines of drilling to fantastic depths. Quaise Energy, based in Cambridge, Mass., plans to deploy what are called gyroton drills to vaporize rock using powerful microwaves.

“We need to go deeper and hotter to make geothermal energy viable outside of places like Iceland.”
—CARLOS ARAQUE, QUAISE ENERGY

A gyrotron uses high-power, linear-beam vacuum tubes to generate millimeter-length electromagnetic waves. Invented by Soviet scientists in the 1960s, gyrotons are used in nuclear fusion research experiments to heat and control plasma. Quaise has raised $95 million from investors, including Japan’s Mitsubishi, to develop technology that would enable it to quickly and efficiently drill up 20 km deep, closer to the Earth’s core than ever before.


https://spectrum.ieee.org/geothermal-energy-gyrotron-quaise (https://spectrum.ieee.org/geothermal-energy-gyrotron-quaise)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2024, 11:02:40 AM

Back in the early days of business, I was doing a lot of engineering for custom houses on Chicago's North Shore (Kenilworth, Winnetka, and Glencoe mostly). A lot of these homes were going geothermal. Of course, these homes were all $5 Million+, so money was no object.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2024, 11:38:07 AM

In Historic Reversal, US To Restart A Shut Down Nuclear Power Plant For The First Time Ever | ZeroHedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historic-reversal-us-restart-shut-down-nuclear-power-plant-first-time-ever)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2024, 12:44:58 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/mWE2VgB.jpeg)

Nice day here.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2024, 12:47:16 PM

high of 50 here with wind and clouds

better day to drive the Vette than the golf cart

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 30, 2024, 01:20:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 30, 2024, 12:47:16 PM

high of 50 here with wind and clouds

better day to drive the Vette than the golf cart

We had a gorgeous week of weather. 

Entire weekend is going to be cold and rainy. 

Had to cancel a planned round of golf. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2024, 01:29:37 PM

https://youtu.be/z-m9WgAdflY

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2024, 05:35:27 AM

Smog Cities: Best and Worst Places for Air Pollution (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/asthma/ss/slideshow-worst-smog-cities?ecd=socpd_fb_LAL_1660_spns_ctv18048&fbclid=IwAR0Cgsu7kLrGE0zJb4Z6N4eCd8bhshmhEEtiMkamumtXpVPSVvJ02lOOTdE_aem_ASK0ahyYA41TAPwRMwU_xljsCWU5oyT6rOHp0VQxmsE4zovvmsh8mCZJ4gIs2Es3CyPCKqifhtWz8zbHwbftWATJ)

All out west, geography etc.  

The air in Tokyo and Seoul was VERY hazy ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2024, 06:48:27 AM

Occidental Petroleum is building the world’s largest direct air-capture plant. The company plans to turn it on next year.

The mechanics are relatively straightforward: Giant fans blow air across water that has been treated to absorb carbon dioxide. Occidental then uses chemicals to isolate that CO2, mixes the gas with water and pumps it underground. Extreme subterranean pressure keeps the gas locked away forever.

Critics of the air-capture plants like those in Texas and Iceland remain skeptical. The projects are enormously expensive and very energy-intensive and snag only a sliver of annual greenhouse gas emissions. Maybe they distract policymakers from the more urgent work of reducing fossil fuel emissions.

Despite these concerns, the market for these ventures is set to boom — from less than $10 billion today to as much as $135 billion by 2040, according to Boston Consulting Group. Occidental is planning to build 100 plants in the coming years, funded in part by $1.2 billion in funding for the technology from the Biden administration. Climeworks wants to build in Kenya, Canada, Europe and Louisiana.

It’s not unusual for a new technology to gain momentum before the major questions about its efficacy, safety and regulation are resolved. Who deserves the right to alter the planet, and what burdens of proof should they first meet?

Right now, there are no international standards governing these new technologies, even though they could affect the whole planet. As one professor of environmental philosophy told me, “We don’t have a great track record of sustained global cooperation.”


Source, NY Times.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2024, 10:10:00 AM

What could possibly go wrong???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 10:38:33 AM

The main thing, to me, if entropy.  Taking such a minor portion out of the air is very uphill.  You can do it of course with amines or whatever else, but then you have to generate the amines.  It's still entropically adverse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2024, 10:44:40 AM

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today released an information guide for communities considering replacing their retired or retiring coal power plants with nuclear power plants. The guide is based on a technical study that found transitioning from a coal plant to a nuclear one would create additional higher paying jobs at the plant, create hundreds of additional jobs locally, and spur millions of dollars in increased revenues and economic activity in the host community. Importantly, it also found that, with planning and support for training, most workers at an existing coal plant should be able to transition to work at a replacement nuclear plant.

Coal-to-nuclear transitions could dramatically increase the supply of reliable, clean electricity to the grid and make progress toward the nation’s goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

“As we work to transition to a net-zero economy, it’s absolutely essential that we provide resources to energy communities and coal workers who have helped our nation’s energy system for decades,” said Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Dr. Kathryn Huff. “This is a core promise of the Biden-Harris Administration: to deliver place-based solutions and ensure an equitable energy transition that does not leave energy communities behind.”

This information guide builds on DOE’s 2022 study that found hundreds of U.S. coal power plant sites across the country could be converted to nuclear power plant sites. DOE’s information guide offers communities a high-level look at the economic impacts, workforce transition considerations, and policy and funding information relevant to a coal-to-nuclear transition. It also provides utilities a brief overview of considerations to be aware of such as power requirements, project scope and timeline, and infrastructure reuse.

Read more about DOE's work to support coal-to-nuclear transitions here.


https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/doe-study-finds-replacing-coal-plants-nuclear-plants-could-bring-hundreds-more-local (https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/doe-study-finds-replacing-coal-plants-nuclear-plants-could-bring-hundreds-more-local)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2024, 11:04:11 AM

7 years from now, do you folks think someone with a bachelor's in nuclear engineering will be in high demand?

Asking for a friend. Ok, asking for my kid...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 11:05:17 AM

HIGH demand?  I do not, some demand, probably.  I have some modest hopes for SMRs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2024, 11:27:08 AM

if the climate really does start to become adverse

might be enough motivation to go nuclear

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 11:29:07 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2024, 11:27:08 AM

if the climate really does start to become adverse

might be enough motivation to go nuclear

It would be too late, if that happened.  I think folks would be looking at geoengineering solutions seriously if this got really bad (which is possible).

It remains clear "we" are not doing remotely enough to reduce CO2 emissions sufficient to avoid a global T increase of well over 2°C.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on April 02, 2024, 11:30:56 AM

My company is supposedly going to be building a small one in S Texas.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2024, 11:50:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 11:29:07 AM

It would be too late, if that happened.  I think folks would be looking at geoengineering solutions seriously if this got really bad (which is possible).

It remains clear "we" are not doing remotely enough to reduce CO2 emissions sufficient to avoid a global T increase of well over 2°C. 

well, yes, everything is too late at this point
doesn't mean they wouldn't start doing the right thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 12:04:35 PM

Well, it's far from certain what the "right thing" might be, in practical terms.  Maybe the planet should engage in a crash program to build nukes, but that clearly is not going to happen.  "We" will continue to throw some money at it, hold meetings in resort areas, give speeches about how we're not meeting goals, make more goals and promises, throw more money at it, and cycle.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 12:07:53 PM

USA | Climate Action Tracker (https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/#:~:text=Overall%2C the CAT rates the,reduction in emissions until 2030.)

This site may well not be impartial.

While it is a major step forward, it is imperative that the US adopts equally bold policy packages at the sectoral level and shifts away from the increasing reliance on fossil fuels to achieve the pace and scale of emission reductions needed to meet its NDC target. Without additional, drastic emission reductions measures, the US will still be far from meeting its domestic climate target, let alone get its emissions onto a 1.5°C trajectory. Overall, the CAT rates the US climate targets, action and climate finance as “Insufficient”.

As of 2022, the US has achieved about one third of its 2030 emissions reduction target. CAT current policies projections, which include the IRA, show a more pronounced reduction in emissions until 2030. Although CAT projections suggest that the US will close the gap by an additional 30%–44% by 2030, it is still 23%–37% short of meeting the required 2030 emissions reductions, evidence that further action is critically needed. The current US target of 50–52% reductions below 2005 by 2030 is not 1.5˚C compatible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2024, 12:55:49 PM

Just trying to figure it out... My son is potentially going to major in physics but thinks that might be a longer path to $ as he may need to go post-graduate to do anything interesting with it. He's balancing that against engineering but isn't sure which discipline is for him, yet. I think because of his interest in physics he probably was thinking nuclear sounds "interesting" (although I'm sure nuclear engineering is the nuts & bolts, not the cool stuff lol), but I don't want him to go down that route if it's a declining industry because these new nuclear expansions won't happen and/or oversaturated with new college grads in 7 years because everyone else thinks it's the new hot shit. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on April 02, 2024, 01:00:18 PM

I would suggest engineering with a 5th year option for a masters.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 01:09:39 PM

I started in physics but realized you have to be smart to be a physicist. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Riffraft on April 02, 2024, 02:29:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 02, 2024, 01:09:39 PM

I started in physics but realized you have to be smart to be a physicist.

So did I but I realized you had to go to school forever get multiple degrees and still not make any money

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2024, 02:43:44 PM

There's a job grouping called "applied physicist."  He should check that out.

Incidentally it's also called "engineering."

I know you know this. :)

For folks who are STEM oriented I'd bet on areas of growth like AI, environmental engineering, environmental science.

Or just quit everything and become a social influencer.  That seems to have worked for about a hundred million folks that actually had real jobs before the pandemic...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Kris60 on April 02, 2024, 07:31:14 PM

Really rare occurrence of a tornado touching down here in southern WV today.  The mountains usually just eat them up.

Hit in the town where my daughter goes to school which is about 10 minutes from where we live.  Several of her friends’ houses suffered significant damage.

Thursday night they are calling for snow here. Maybe 2-4 inches. Bonkers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2024, 06:44:26 AM

I get a bit amused at the recurrent gloom and doom articles claiming we need to "do more".  OK, what specifically?  Do you have a plan?

Wind and solar.  Yeah, OK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2024, 09:16:00 AM

Taiwan Earthquake, 7.4magnitude, 700 injured, tsunamis triggered (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68719996)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2024, 09:29:29 AM

I asked about earthquakes in Seoul, the fellow said they rarely had them.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2024, 06:57:55 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2024, 12:55:49 PM

Just trying to figure it out... My son is potentially going to major in physics but thinks that might be a longer path to $ as he may need to go post-graduate to do anything interesting with it. He's balancing that against engineering but isn't sure which discipline is for him, yet. I think because of his interest in physics he probably was thinking nuclear sounds "interesting" (although I'm sure nuclear engineering is the nuts & bolts, not the cool stuff lol), but I don't want him to go down that route if it's a declining industry because these new nuclear expansions won't happen and/or oversaturated with new college grads in 7 years because everyone else thinks it's the new hot shit.

Nuclear Engineering, B.S. < University of Wisconsin-Madison

 (https://guide.wisc.edu/undergraduate/engineering/nuclear-engineering-engineering-physics/nuclear-engineering-bs/)One of the country's top programs #3, fMichigan #1, MIT #2). They have an active reactor in their building!

There is a lot you can do with this degree. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2024, 07:13:40 AM

Georgia Tech used to have a research reactor in downtown Atlanta, I understand it was shuttered,

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2024, 09:29:50 AM

Texas has a research nuclear reactor underneath the mechanical engineering building.  I always enjoyed watching the anti-nuke protestors on campus, who had no idea they were standing on top of one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2024, 09:31:14 AM

As far as demand for nuclear engineers, here's what the intertrons had to say:

Are nuclear engineers in high demand?



(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQsB_vyAQnKl6V3_CEy3ozjV54RIJ_3Jg5hLXawXCK28g&s)

Employment of nuclear engineers is projected to show little or no change from 2022 to 2032. Despite limited employment growth, about 800 openings for nuclear engineers are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2024, 11:28:37 AM

I think UW graduates like 5-10 NE's per year. I suspect most of the other top schools are the same.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2024, 11:28:55 AM

On another note, weather:

Colorado State University releases 2024 Atlantic hurricane outlook (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/04/04/hurricane-season-outlook-2024/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-04-04-The-Weather-Aut)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2024, 11:38:13 AM

The spontaneous nature of hurricanes could mean that Southwest Florida may be impacted heavily or lightly. Due to the uncertainty, the important point is being prepared in advance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2024, 12:08:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2024, 11:38:13 AM

The spontaneous nature of hurricanes could mean that Southwest Florida may be impacted heavily or lightly. Due to the uncertainty, the important point is being prepared in advance.

I noticed that. May or may not.

Hoping for not.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2024, 01:13:48 PM

More information on 2024 hurricane season.

2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be among most active on record | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/hurricane-researchers-release-stunning-prediction-for-2024-season)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2024, 10:55:03 PM

could be

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 07:05:45 AM

It's easy to think hotter water means more and more dangerous hurricanes, but I suspect it's more complex than that, as have yet to see a clear correlation between water T and hurricane ACE.

(https://i.imgur.com/rA13hEo.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 07:07:42 AM

On the relationship of ACE and SST | climategrog (wordpress.com) (https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2016/01/10/on-the-relationship-of-ace-and-sst/)

I did find this, but the noise in the chart is pretty large.

(https://i.imgur.com/wdcSwkj.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 07:10:59 AM

I'm not sure of the provenance of this graph, but it's interesting.

(https://i.imgur.com/Ti9s4XR.png)

ACE Report: Global Temperature and the Oceans - Our Climate Our Future (https://ourclimateourfuture.org/activity/ace-report-global-temperature-and-the-oceans/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 07:19:13 AM

Joules?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 07:46:42 AM

That is the "metric" unit for heat, not Calories, these days.  I dimly recall a Joule is something like 4.4 calories but I didn't look it up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 07:50:56 AM

Joules was a physics thing. Just post the temperatures.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 07:55:42 AM

Temperatures would be misleading, in this case, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 07:58:27 AM

Nobody knows what a joule is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 08:03:48 AM

I think with any charge comparing ocean heat and air heat or temperature, one has to talk about Joules, or calories, or whatever heat measurement, as temperature would be highly misleading.

It's interesting, to me, to note the lapse around 1970.  And I'd want to dig further into how these things get measured.  It's not easy to measure global anything.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 08:20:33 AM

167939.pdf (http://file:///C:/Users/jcdoo/Downloads/167939.pdf)

During the past twelve years, NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks have sometimes been accurate (e.g. the 2008 and 2009 forecasts) but have also been criticized as not being skillful, especially after unsuccessful forecasts (such as 2006). Although a verification of Gray’s seasonal hurricane forecasts showed there was skill above climatology (Owens and Landsea 2003), no such work has been done to compare the NOAA outlooks to any benchmarks of skill or to those of any another forecast group. 2. 

In this study, NOAA seasonal hurricane outlooks are compared to forecasts issued by CSU, TSR and a benchmark of skill using the 5-yr running mean as a forecast. Overall, the May NOAA outlooks had slightly higher skill than the 5-yr mean and comparable skill to the other forecast groups. However, the August NOAA outlooks had considerably more skill than the 5-yr mean forecasts and generally were more accurate than forecasts issued by CSU or TSR, though those forecasts also had significant skill when compared to the 5-yr mean.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 08:25:19 AM

Very skillful.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 08:27:54 AM

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.


The above is from last year.  Now, it's obvious that having a 70% degree of confidence in a range that already is "12-17" means these predictions are pretty soft.  It looks to me like more of a crap shoot than anything.  Below is one 2024 prediction:

the CSU team is calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy) (ACE) of 210 (171% of average). In comparison, the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123.

Note that 12-17 was considered a fairly light year, while 23 is magically now a very active year.  I could probably just randomly guess a figure and be about as close to reality.  Then of course there is the variable as to whether anything major hits some populated area and does damage, a lot of last year's storms went north.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2024, 08:29:47 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 07:50:56 AM

Joules was a physics thing. Just post the temperatures.

Temperature would be a poor metric here due to the size of the oceans and the extremely high specific heat of water. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 08:34:18 AM

99.9 percent of the people on this earth have never heard of a joule.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 08:53:08 AM

We used to shop at Jewel when we lived in Illinois.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2024, 09:06:12 AM

ARTICLE OF THE DAY: 

The Global Conveyor Belt
Thermohaline circulation refers to the deepwater circulation of the oceans and is primarily caused by differences in density between the waters of different regions. It is mainly a convection process in which cold, dense water formed in the polar regions sinks and flows slowly toward the equator. The circulation of ocean waters is vitally important in dispersing heat energy around the globe. Two factors determine the density of ocean water; one is temperature

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 05, 2024, 09:07:19 AM

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSpXMnCkjShmOtQKT_ro5TzE6srkOjMsCfXPdoozuV62w&s)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 09:12:25 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2024, 09:06:12 AM

ARTICLE OF THE DAY:

The Global Conveyor Belt
Thermohaline circulation refers to the deepwater circulation of the oceans and is primarily caused by differences in density between the waters of different regions. It is mainly a convection process in which cold, dense water formed in the polar regions sinks and flows slowly toward the equator. The circulation of ocean waters is vitally important in dispersing heat energy around the globe. Two factors determine the density of ocean water; one is temperature

Is the other one jewels?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2024, 09:14:07 AM

oysters

jewel of the sea

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 09:18:53 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 08:34:18 AM

99.9 percent of the people on this earth have never heard of a joule.

I imagine most have heard of calorie, though they might not all understand it.  A Joule is just the metric term for "Calorie", with a 4.4 factor attached.

Density is of course related to temperature.  But when discussing climate, heat becomes far more important when water is being compared with air or land.

I think if 99% of folks have never heard of Joules, those same folks should probably not be considered as having solid technical opinions about much of anything.  They likely conflate heat and temperature as being the same thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 09:20:11 AM

Temperature is one cause of heat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 09:25:29 AM

One can readily have the same substance at the same exact temperature and wildly different heat contents.

Water is a nice example.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2024, 10:33:52 AM

A shut-down nuclear power plant in Michigan could get a second life thanks to a $1.52 billion loan from the US Department of Energy. If successful, it will be the first time a shuttered nuclear power plant reopens in the US. 

Palisades Power Plant shut down on May 20, 2022, after 50 years of generating low-carbon electricity. But the plant’s new owner thinks economic conditions have improved in the past few years and plans to reopen by the end of 2025.

A successful restart would be a major milestone for the US nuclear fleet, and the reactor’s 800 megawatts of capacity could help inch the country closer to climate goals. But reopening isn’t as simple as flipping on a light switch—there are technical, administrative, and regulatory hurdles ahead before Palisades can start operating again. Here’s what it takes to reopen a nuclear power plant.


https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/03/1090603/how-to-reopen-a-nuclear-power-plant/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/03/1090603/how-to-reopen-a-nuclear-power-plant/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 10:40:20 AM

I stepped out on the deck to do a bit of work on our "garden" and quickly stepped back inside.  Windy and chilly.  I'll wait.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 05, 2024, 10:45:26 AM

At least you don't have Jupiter's weather. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2024, 10:53:11 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 08:34:18 AM

99.9 percent of the people on this earth have never heard of a joule.

Well why should we suffer fools? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 10:53:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 10:40:20 AM

I stepped out on the deck to do a bit of work on our "garden" and quickly stepped back inside.  Windy and chilly.  I'll wait.

How are your joules doing?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2024, 10:54:13 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2024, 10:53:11 AM

Well why should we suffer fools?

The new USA:


Population 3,650.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 10:56:30 AM

I had an abbreviated discussion about heat and temperature with my "step son in law" a while back.  It got so garbled I just said "Never mind."

He learned about climate science from Al Gore, I'm serious.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2024, 10:57:45 AM

he didn't learn much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2024, 10:58:40 AM

62 and sunny here this afternoon
breezy

golf weather in shorts

1:30pm tee time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 05, 2024, 11:37:59 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2024, 10:56:30 AM

I had an abbreviated discussion about heat and temperature with my "step son in law" a while back.  It got so garbled I just said "Never mind."

He learned about climate science from Al Gore, I'm serious. 

AL Gore is the reason they put instructions on shampoo,I'm serious

Anyhow 3-4 wks ago temps brushed 60° for a spell, i said we're not done with winter - Home Opener hadn't arrived. Well 45 minutes ago about 3 miles south of the lake it was blustery snow/sleet.as I drove another mile closer to the Lake it stopped. Happens practically every year home opener is Monday the 8th -  with the total solar eclipse coming right thru this area it should be past by 1st Pitch. PLAY BALL!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2024, 09:12:19 AM

South African farmers embrace nuclear solution amid blackout crisis - Francois Rossouw (SAAI)

https://youtu.be/5QJcYQ7OkO8

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2024, 09:13:55 AM

Nuclear energy is surging back in a big way. Case in point: Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm’s comments last week on plans to restart the Palisades nuclear power plant in Michigan. To bolster the effort, she announced a $1.5 billion conditional loan guarantee to cover work required to restart the plant after a two-year shutdown. And this is just the latest example of the nuclear energy industry’s re-emergence as policymakers and energy industry leaders again recognize its value in supplying reliable, scalable carbon-free energy.

Only a few years ago, well-run nuclear plants were shutting down across the U.S. Now, plants like Diablo Canyon in California that were headed toward shutdown have gotten a reprieve, and Palisades has been granted a chance for new life.

Meanwhile, the first new American nuclear plant in decades, Vogtle 3, came online last year, and Vogtle 4 is being finalized to come online this year. Apart from that, a plethora of advanced small reactor designs are in the offing, promising new ways to site plants and provide clean energy to power everything from server farms to steel plants.

Nuclear energy’s comeback is the result of several factors. There is rising demand for reliable clean energy and a desire to move away from fossil fuels. Nuclear energy checks all the boxes—nuclear power plants are carbon-free, they operate 24/7, and they form the backbone of a reliable electricity grid.


https://www.powermag.com/nuclear-energy-seeing-a-resurgence-unlike-any-other/ (https://www.powermag.com/nuclear-energy-seeing-a-resurgence-unlike-any-other/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2024, 09:18:01 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 06, 2024, 09:13:55 AM

Nuclear energy is surging back in a big way. 

I strongly disagree with this, aside from the SMR story (which is still very preliminary).  We're going to see more reactors going off line than new ones starting up in the next decade or so.  I'd say the DECLINE is likely to be less steep, but it's a decline.


(https://i.imgur.com/tRoAfUJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2024, 09:44:17 AM

probably right
because of minds like this................
_______________________________________

An environmental group has sued the U.S. Energy Department over its decision to award over $1 billion to help keep California's last nuclear power plant running beyond a planned closure that was set for 2025. The move opens another battlefront in the fight over the future of Diablo Canyon's twin reactors.

Friends of the Earth, in a complaint filed Tuesday in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, argued that the award to plant operator Pacific Gas & Electric last year was based on an outdated, flawed analysis that failed to recognize the risk of earthquakes or other serious events.


"The environmental impacts from extending the lifespan of this aging power plant at this point in time have not been adequately addressed or disclosed to the public," the complaint said.

An email seeking comment was sent to the Energy Department.

Diablo Canyon lies on a bluff overlooking the Pacific midway between Los Angeles and San Francisco. It began operating in the mid-1980s and supplies up to 9% of the state's electricity on any given day.

In 2016, PG&E, environmental groups and unions representing plant workers agreed to close the facility by 2025. But the Legislature voided the deal in 2022 after Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom reversed his position and said the power is needed to ward off blackouts as the state transitions to renewables and climate change stresses California's energy system.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2024, 09:50:50 AM

I'll pay more attention to SMRs when they start to get built in numbers, until then, it's still some future thing that could happen, or not.

We have ZERO new large power reactors plans in the US, nothing is even planned or anticipated.  Meanwhile, old ones will continue to be shuttered.  If a new large power reactor were PLANNED, it would be 15-20 year from operation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2024, 09:52:19 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2024, 09:50:50 AM

I'll pay more attention to SMRs when they start to get built in numbers, until then, it's still some future thing that could happen, or not.

We have ZERO new large power reactors plans in the US, nothing is even planned or anticipated.  Meanwhile, old ones will continue to be shuttered.  If a new large power reactor were PLANNED, it would be 15-20 year from operation.

That's a self-inflicted wound.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2024, 10:05:03 AM

Smaller reactors would be perfect for large data center projects, which continue to grow and grow. I think their power usage is much more predictable based on time of day so there will be less difference between peak and non peak usage which usually requires natural gas or other emitting sources to manage the variable load...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2024, 10:13:26 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2024, 10:05:03 AM

Smaller reactors would be perfect for large data center projects, which continue to grow and grow. I think their power usage is much more predictable based on time of day so there will be less difference between peak and non peak usage which usually requires natural gas or other emitting sources to manage the variable load...

I like this idea. A few designs could be developed and then adapted for specific sites, based on topography, geology, availability of cooling water, etc.

There is a lot of opportunity for this approach, in my opinion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2024, 11:13:37 AM

Thinking this through a little more.

There are a lot of rivers out there that could use some cleaning. If these small plants could be built to use the river water as the coolant, a small treatment facility could be incorporated to remove pollutants from the water too. 

Not to get to potable levels - just take out the metals and nutrients and get the biological oxygen demand down. 

Could be an interesting way to sell it to the anti-nuke yahoos.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2024, 11:19:00 AM

What are Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)? | IAEA (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:~:text=Small modular reactors (SMRs) are,of traditional nuclear power reactors.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2024, 01:03:36 PM

Seems viable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2024, 04:05:27 PM

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) (https://www.imo.org/en) rules have had some success in improving public health. Global emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) – a health-damaging air pollutant – have dropped by about 10% as a result.
But the shift to low-sulphur shipping fuel has had an additional consequence. 
Sulphur particles contained in ships’ exhaust fumes have been counteracting some of the warming coming from greenhouse gases. But lowering the sulphur content of marine fuel has weakened the masking effect, effectively giving a boost to warming.

Analysis: How low-sulphur shipping rules are affecting global warming - Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2024, 04:10:15 PM

Not even in the 70s today.....but it'll get up to 94 next Friday.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2024, 04:44:36 PM

Greta Thunberg arrested at climate protest in The Hague | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4578508-greta-thunberg-arrested-at-climate-protest-in-the-hague/)

In my view, folks of this general ilk are harming their own "cause".  But they get clicks.

They want to see "more" done, but they get a bit vague as to what, more than a bit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2024, 10:37:21 AM

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/09/climate/international-court-judgment-human-rights-climate-intl/index.html


Weird. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2024, 10:43:30 AM

Huh?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2024, 10:51:11 AM

Pointless nonsense. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2024, 11:49:39 AM

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced more than $19.1 million to support nuclear energy research and development, university nuclear infrastructure, and undergraduate and graduate education. Projects will help expand access to nuclear energy, moving the nation closer to meeting the Biden-Harris Administration’s goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

"U.S. universities and colleges are critical incubators of groundbreaking ideas that can move us toward a clean energy future,” said Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Dr. Kathryn Huff. "These awards invest in the next generation of nuclear scientists and engineers who will continue to advance nuclear energy as a solution to tackling the climate crisis."

Since 2009, DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy has awarded almost $1 billion to advance nuclear energy research and support the education and training of future nuclear energy visionaries and leaders. Awards being announced today include:

Distinguished Early Career Program ($2.5 million) - Invests in the innovative research and education programs of four outstanding early career university faculty poised to pave new lines of inquiry and advance mission critical research directions in nuclear energy.

University Nuclear Leadership Program ($6.6 million) - Provides scholarships and graduate fellowships to students pursuing nuclear engineering and other degree programs relevant to nuclear energy. The awards include 93 scholarships and 34 fellowships for students at 42 U.S. trade schools, colleges and universities.

The Innovations in Nuclear Energy Research Development Student Competition ($34,500) - Recognizes 11 graduate and undergraduate students for their innovative nuclear energy research publications.

Consolidated Innovative Nuclear Research (CINR) Phase II Research and Development ($4.7 Million) - Six awards enable established teams to extend and build upon previously funded nuclear energy research and development projects.

Scientific Infrastructure Support for CINR ($5.2 Million) - 18 awards will assist universities with acquiring the best resources and equipment available to educate the next generation of nuclear energy leaders. 

To learn more about these awards, visit the Nuclear Energy University Program website. CINR R&D awards will be announced later this spring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2024, 11:51:37 AM

Hopefully @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) sees this post.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2024, 11:54:10 AM

on the previous page ~???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2024, 11:57:35 AM

Yep.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 09, 2024, 12:30:18 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2024, 11:51:37 AM

Hopefully @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) sees this post.

Yep. We'll see if he continues to have interest...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2024, 01:03:33 PM

Nebraska Public Power District’s chief nuclear officer made a base salary of $646,000 in 2023, but after a bonus nearly equal to that amount his total compensation was $1.3 million.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2024, 03:39:11 PM

Gonna have one helluva pension burden.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 09, 2024, 06:01:40 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 09, 2024, 01:03:33 PM

Nebraska Public Power District’s chief nuclear officer made a base salary of $646,000 in 2023, but after a bonus nearly equal to that amount his total compensation was $1.3 million.

Nebraska has 13 coal plants and one nuclear plant

would seem its priorities are misplaced

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2024, 10:23:07 PM

perhaps, but the issue it getting paid

not sure what the coal plant guys get for a bonus

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2024, 10:40:20 PM

A mine

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2024, 10:52:24 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/x6GOKHC.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2024, 10:54:03 PM

Should have went to Lincoln they're paying this guy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2024, 10:54:39 PM

he's wearing RED

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2024, 10:57:53 PM

I meant you

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2024, 09:43:34 AM

I'm obviously not worth it

Lazy

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 06:10:29 AM

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4585709-the-mainstream-medias-climate-coverage-is-blinkered-and-condescending/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2024, 08:03:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 06:10:29 AM

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4585709-the-mainstream-medias-climate-coverage-is-blinkered-and-condescending/

Loved this part:


The BBC host pressed the South American leader about the “oil and gas” drilling that was about to take place in the country, and the “billions” of carbon emissions that would be released as a result.

Ali stopped him in his tracks, pointing to the fact that the forest in Guyana that has been preserved “is the size of England and Scotland combined.”

“We have kept this forest alive that stores 19.5 gigatons of carbon, that you enjoy, that the world enjoys, that you don’t pay us for,” he said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2024, 08:03:31 AM

The goal is to stay in “crisis mode,” so that “every time there’s a weather event, they have to connect it to climate change, to keep the fear factor up.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2024, 09:57:17 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 06:10:29 AM

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4585709-the-mainstream-medias-climate-coverage-is-blinkered-and-condescending/

The simple question is why climate reporting isn't better...

I think the answer is that most journalists aren't capable of covering it, and most of their customers are too dumb to understand it anyway. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 03:52:55 PM

After climate tipping points, change will come slowly, then all at once | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4585835-after-climate-tipping-points-change-will-come-slowly-then-all-at-once/)

Basically another hand wringing op ed, with NO hint of an outline of a shred of a glimmer of a PLAN.  Let's stipulate for the moment that the fears below are REAL and CONSEQUENTIALLY BAD.  Horrorifically bad.  What should we be doing?  Throw some money at it?  Wind and solar?  Complain and whine and moan?

Or MAYBE "we" should come up with an actual PLAN to DO something?

Climate scientists are beginning to worry we may be at a terrifying juncture, where the climate shifts dramatically from one state to another. An abrupt global warming episode, during which climate changes happen in decades not centuries, and interrelated tipping points cascade into one another amplifying the sudden shift in the world climate, pushing the planet out of the temperate sweet spot we humans have been lucky enough to live in.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 04:24:12 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2024, 09:57:17 AM

The simple question is why climate reporting isn't better...

NPR editor’s tell-all confirms what we already knew about the media | The Hill

 (https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4588408-npr-editors-tell-all-confirms-what-we-already-knew-about-the-media/)As you noted, there is a lot of herd mentality out there.  And not going with the herd has consequences.  And then there is the fact that very very few journalists have much if any training in the sciences.  

This is one reason I read Judith Curry's blog site (not so much some others who contribute).  She pretty well lays this out with hard examples, and she is NOT s "denier".  She gets called that often as a way to diminish her message.  It's predictable.

And as I often note, for most of "us", it's purely political, not technical.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2024, 04:32:44 PM

NPR? Really?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 04:49:55 PM

I'm not sure of your point.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2024, 05:18:45 PM

Zero credibility at NPR. Not worth a click.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 05:28:41 PM

The reference is not to NPR.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2024, 05:37:15 PM

The Hill reporting on what NPR's editor has to say. Not touching that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2024, 05:40:50 PM

Former editor excoriates NPR for bias.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2024, 05:50:47 PM

Yep.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 08:33:29 AM

It's an interesting point, I think, about how anything "technical" or complex is rarely reported accurately or evenhandedly.  It gets "dumbed down" to a point that loses meaning, or a conclusion is set in stone before anything is disseminated.

And many humans base their "opinions" about such things based on their political views.  You won't find many liberals who think climate change is a hoax, or even that it may be real but is not that much of a problem, and you won't find many conservatives who thinks it's real and serious and needs urgent attention.

I could devise a questionaire I think that would pretty accurately assess your political views without asking a single political question.

Is you COVID vaccine up to date?

Do you view climate change as an urgent problem?

Etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2024, 08:35:44 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 08:33:29 AM

It's an interesting point, I think, about how anything "technical" or complex is rarely reported accurately or evenhandedly.  It gets "dumbed down" to a point that loses meaning, or a conclusion is set in stone before anything is disseminated.

And many humans base their "opinions" about such things based on their political views.  You won't find many liberals who think climate change is a hoax, or even that it may be real but is not that much of a problem, and you won't find many conservatives who thinks it's real and serious and needs urgent attention.

I could devise a questionaire I think that would pretty accurately assess your political views without asking a single political question.

Is you COVID vaccine up to date?

Do you view climate change as an urgent problem?

Etc.

1. What vaccine?


2. Yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 09:10:50 AM

There is no human right to a safe or stable climate | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2024/04/09/there-is-no-human-right-to-a-safe-or-stable-climate/#more-31138)

Even if Net Zero objectives were achieved globally by 2050, the climate would continue to change from natural weather and climate variability: volcanic eruptions, solar effects, large-scale oscillations of ocean circulations, and other geologic processes.  Further, given the inertia in the climate system (particularly oceans and ice sheets), it would be many decades before there was any noticeable change in extreme weather/climate events and sea level rise after Net Zero was achieved.

Exaggeration of the risks from human-caused climate change lead to serious contradictions in context of the idea “that human rights offer protection against the impacts of dangerous climate change.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2024, 09:14:39 AM

It's an urgent problem, but it's not fixable at the present.

(https://i.imgur.com/klwAdab.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 09:22:24 AM

I distinguish between the problem of general pollution and that of climate change (which can't be seen visually in the main).

I was surprised how hazy both Tokyo and Seoul were.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2024, 09:25:41 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 09:22:24 AM

I distinguish between the problem of general pollution and that of climate change (which can't be seen visually in the main).

I was surprised how hazy both Tokyo and Seoul were.

Like LA?


China is very bad from a pollution standpoint. One of my great friends spent a month at a time over there over a 4 year period he was charged with building a sterile pharma factory. Disgusting was an oft used word to describe the place.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 09:41:24 AM

I haven't stay in LA for quite a while.  

This was the view from our hotel room in Seoul on an otherwise clear day.

(https://i.imgur.com/J3saGXy.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 09:43:01 AM

This is on the island of Jeju in RoK, I didn't notice as much haze there, but it's to the south.  We both remarked on how muc clearer and bluer the sky is around here.

(https://i.imgur.com/Q5enOP9.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 09:52:24 AM

Our first full day in Tokyo was very clear and cold/chilly, they had snow a few days before this.  The haze doesn't look too bad in this shot.

(https://i.imgur.com/43h9qmr.jpeg)
It looks a bit worse below.

(https://i.imgur.com/uCU0zXL.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 09:57:49 AM

I snapped this in late February of some construction near us just for comparison of a blue sky.

(https://i.imgur.com/NYTgOoK.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 10:00:57 AM

From sunny and warm Hawaii in Deccember ...

(https://i.imgur.com/abBblCB.jpeg)



(https://i.imgur.com/ieSBRs2.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 10:17:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/PAr6c3F.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2024, 10:19:58 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2024, 09:25:41 AM

Like LA?

I don't think LA is anything like what it used to be. CA is pretty strict now about smog testing of vehicles. Prevailing winds off the coast push much of it away from the city. 

The biggest issues come when you get northeast of LA into some of the suburbs that back up to the San Gabriel Mountains. 

Where I live (South OC) it's absolutely gorgeous. I'm close enough to the coast and there are few enough people/cars between here and there that the winds off the ocean push everything inland from here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2024, 10:23:58 AM

I used to travel to LA on business, circa 1990.  We stayed in the Mondrian Hotel on the side of a large hill north of LA.  I'd get up early and eat breakfast on the balcony and would watch the clear skies below us turn orange brown with haze.  It didn't take long.

I agree it is a lot better now, I just haven't spent time in LA of late.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2024, 10:30:53 AM

Mondrian is pretty cool. Very unique.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2024, 10:34:29 AM

https://californiaglobe.com/uncategorized/trouble-in-dam-removal-paradise-kiewit-has-pulled-out-of-klamath-river-dam-project/ (https://californiaglobe.com/uncategorized/trouble-in-dam-removal-paradise-kiewit-has-pulled-out-of-klamath-river-dam-project/)

(https://i.imgur.com/EjKEkNM.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2024, 08:17:34 AM

Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/)

Largely as a result, the world is on track for 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius of warming (https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43922/EGR2023.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y#page=57) (4.5 to 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) — well past the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) guardrail. That’s the level at which warming will push the planet past self-reinforcing feedback loops (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332223000040) and into tipping points with irreversible and catastrophic effects (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0), which are projected to ultimately alter the climate so significantly it may no longer be habitable for life on Earth — including humans. There are signs this is already starting to happen (https://global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-earth-system-tipping-points/).

The ongoing delay in a necessary transition away from fossil fuels means actions now must be accelerated. If we are to have a chance of staying relatively safe, fossil fuel emissions will have to be slashed by 43 percent by 2030 (https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era#:~:text=The stocktake recognizes the science,warming to 1.5°C.) — threatening to strand significant investments. (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/f065ae5e-94ed-4fcb-8f17-8ceffde8bdd2/TheOilandGasIndustryinNetZeroTransitions.pdf#page=61) It also means that, if we are to have a chance of staying within sight of the 1.5 degrees Celsius guardrail, the fossil fuel industry must invest 50 percent of its annual capital expenditure in clean energy (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/f065ae5e-94ed-4fcb-8f17-8ceffde8bdd2/TheOilandGasIndustryinNetZeroTransitions.pdf#page=16). Today, it invests an anemic 2.5 percent (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/f065ae5e-94ed-4fcb-8f17-8ceffde8bdd2/TheOilandGasIndustryinNetZeroTransitions.pdf#page=15), while continuing to fund further exploration (https://productiongap.org/).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2024, 04:10:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2024, 08:17:34 AM

That’s the level at which warming will push the planet past self-reinforcing feedback loops (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332223000040) and into tipping points with irreversible and catastrophic effects (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0), which are projected to ultimately alter the climate so significantly it may no longer be habitable for life on Earth — including humans. There are signs this is already starting to happen (https://global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-earth-system-tipping-points/).

That sounds scary, therefore I believe it won't / can't happen.

 /s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2024, 12:35:24 PM

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA), there’s now a 60% chance La Niña will develop between June and August and an 85% chance it's in effect by November 2024 to January 2025.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/goodbye-el-nino-hello-la-nina-big-transition-la-nina-already-underway (https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/goodbye-el-nino-hello-la-nina-big-transition-la-nina-already-underway)



(https://i.imgur.com/leRVr3q.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2024, 12:47:48 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2024, 12:35:24 PM

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA), there’s now a 60% chance La Niña will develop between June and August and an 85% chance it's in effect by November 2024 to January 2025.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/goodbye-el-nino-hello-la-nina-big-transition-la-nina-already-underway (https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/goodbye-el-nino-hello-la-nina-big-transition-la-nina-already-underway)



(https://i.imgur.com/leRVr3q.png)

I hope it doesn't develop earlier than November.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2024, 01:58:25 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2024, 04:10:19 PM

That sounds scary, therefore I believe it won't / can't happen.

I think such hysterical hyperbole does a disservice to his own cause.  I doubt anyone is really predicting this as a possibility even centuries from now.

may no longer be habitable for life on Earth — including humans.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2024, 04:02:15 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2024, 01:58:25 PM

I think such hysterical hyperbole does a disservice to his own cause.  I doubt anyone is really predicting this as a possibility even centuries from now.

may no longer be habitable for life on Earth — including humans.

People don't like worst case scenarios, so they don't talk about them very much. They don't even like to imagine them lest that make the face the fact that they're possible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2024, 04:09:42 PM

I don’t think it possible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2024, 05:40:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2024, 04:09:42 PM

I don’t think it possible.

In truth, I kinda agree with you. I don't think that global warming, even if we hit some of the possible tipping points where positive feedbacks accelerate warming well beyond what just our CO2/methane releases do, will render the planet completely inhabitable to human life. Maybe the tropics will be so hot as to be uninhabitable, but that probably will make Nova Scotia a pretty nice place to live. 

For me it's more about what happens if we destabilize the climate and ecosystem, and thus food chain / agriculture, such that the planet can no longer feed 8B+ humans, and that number is cut in half or worse within the span of a generation. 

Because "habitable" can be a lot of things. We may still have a habitable planet but one that cannot support a modern technological society. 

That, I think is possible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2024, 05:57:34 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2024, 05:40:28 PM

In truth, I kinda agree with you. I don't think that global warming, even if we hit some of the possible tipping points where positive feedbacks accelerate warming well beyond what just our CO2/methane releases do, will render the planet completely inhabitable to human life. Maybe the tropics will be so hot as to be uninhabitable, but that probably will make Nova Scotia a pretty nice place to live.

For me it's more about what happens if we destabilize the climate and ecosystem, and thus food chain / agriculture, such that the planet can no longer feed 8B+ humans, and that number is cut in half or worse within the span of a generation.

Because "habitable" can be a lot of things. We may still have a habitable planet but one that cannot support a modern technological society.

That, I think is possible.

Not if the Gulf Stream collapses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2024, 06:04:04 PM

He said for all life, including humans. I don’t think that possible short of the Sun going nova. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2024, 06:19:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2024, 06:04:04 PM

He said for all life, including humans. I don’t think that possible short of the Sun going nova.

Fair enough. I'd say that was an overreach on his part. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2024, 08:52:01 AM

We used to see rogue waves on Lake Michigan. We had 3-4 foot seas and then all of a sudden, a 10 footer showed up. That rocked the boat.

Most extreme ‘rogue wave’ ever recorded in the Pacific (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/most-extreme-rogue-wave-ever-recorded-in-the-pacific/ar-AA1nodLE?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=bd459faada924a1becbc8f39698a55c4&ei=12)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2024, 09:40:22 AM

climate change, In mean, global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2024, 11:34:08 AM

Electricity production in Switzerland rose by 13.5% in 2023, reaching a new record of 72.1 billion kWh, reported the Federal Office of Electricity (FOE).

https://lenews.ch/2024/04/20/switzerland-breaks-electricity-record-in-2023/ (https://lenews.ch/2024/04/20/switzerland-breaks-electricity-record-in-2023/)

Production from both hydropower plants (+21.7%) and nuclear plants (+1%) was higher. Hydro (56.6%) and nuclear (32.4%) made up 89% of the total. The remaining 11% came from thermal and renewable sources.

The boost in production allowed Switzerland to export more electricity than it consumed. Imports of 27.5 billion kWh were offset by exports of 33.9 billion kWh, netting 6.4 billion kWh. This represents a significant turn around from 2022 when Switzerland imported 3.4 billion kWh more electricity than it exported.

However, despite overall net exports across the year, Switzerland remained a net importer during the winter months (-0.6 billion kWh) – Swiss consumption typically exceeds generation capacity in winter as production falls and demand rises.

Across 2023, Switzerland sold CHF 4.7 billion of electricity and imported CHF 3.7 billion, resulting in a positive trade balance of nearly CHF 1 billion. In 2022, the same figure was CHF 71 million.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2024, 12:06:00 PM

Man, I wish we could "quickly" go to full nuclear.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2024, 12:20:42 PM

I'd be fine with seeing just some modest progress towards more nuclear, but we're going the other way as plants get retired.  I had some thought that PERHAPS some of the more sentient "climate change" folks might start a real push for nuclear, but with few exceptions, that hasn't happened, which, to me, is another indication they want something that simply cannot be done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2024, 12:47:08 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2024, 12:06:00 PM

Man, I wish we could "quickly" go to full nuclear.

It would be the way to go IF you can get the best engineers,architects & tradesmen out there.Windmills/Solar have limited uses,output and too many impediments - at this time. IMO Geothermal makes perfect sense for heating/cooling

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2024, 02:02:03 PM

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/21/climate/equatic-ocean-carbon-removal-plant-climate-intl/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2024, 09:18:00 PM

On nuclear:  when you shut down an entire industry for 30 years, top experts in the field are few and far-between.

Today was the fist 100 degree day here in Phx.  

Fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2024, 09:34:50 PM

the folks in Phoenix moved to the dessert willingly

their problem

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2024, 09:37:53 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2024, 09:18:00 PM

On nuclear:  when you shut down an entire industry for 30 years, top experts in the field are few and far-between.

Today was the fist 100 degree day here in Phx. 

Fun.

It provides 20% of our power.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2024, 11:49:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2024, 09:37:53 PM

It provides 20% of our power. 

(https://i.imgur.com/bYrtxRK.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2024, 07:12:04 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2024, 09:18:00 PM

On nuclear:  when you shut down an entire industry for 30 years, top experts in the field are few and far-between.

I tend to think the phrase "shut down an entire industry" means just that, which of course didn't happen.  We have attenuated building news ones, but even that hasn't been "shut down".  Two new power reactors just opened up.  It's a matter of using precise and accurate language instead of vague incorrect hyperbole.

There also exists a nascent effort receiving a LOT of attention by "top experts" on SMRs.  There is some hope those units can be built faster and with some advantages over current power reactors.  And of course, we have new aircraft carriers being built, the Ford class, as well as submarines.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2024, 07:13:10 AM

Let's not confuse anyone with truth and facts, OK?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2024, 07:25:32 AM

We had the AC on here Saturday.  This morning it's 43°F outside, so now I turned the heat back on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2024, 07:28:32 AM

No heat here. That stopped in February. AC is always on.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2024, 09:38:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2024, 12:06:00 PM

Man, I wish we could "quickly" go to full nuclear.

Warren Buffet when asked why he wasn't doing more for green energy went on a rant about the government regulations and red tape that required a great amount of time to get anything done.
I assume this is most of the reason it takes so many years to build and start a new nuclear plant

Warren said if we really want to make meaningful progress to meet goals, a unifies effort such as the country's response to WWII would be needed.  Automobile plants turned into assembly lines for tanks and such.  Government getting out of the way or better yet, helping to get things done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2024, 09:45:52 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 22, 2024, 09:38:26 AM

Warren Buffet when asked why he wasn't doing more for green energy went on a rant about the government regulations and red tape that required a great amount of time to get anything done.
I assume this is most of the reason it takes so many years to build and start a new nuclear plant

Warren said if we really want to make meaningful progress to meet goals, a unifies effort such as the country's response to WWII would be needed.  Automobile plants turned into assembly lines for tanks and such.  Government getting out of the way or better yet, helping to get things done.

Getting out the way would be good. Having the government help would not be good.


(https://i.imgur.com/XtwuWU5.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2024, 09:48:30 AM

For nuclear plants, one factor may be we don't have a common design that can be copied elsewhere.  I've read each new plant is largely different, which means more regulatory review (and costs).  If we could lock in on a single basic design, by one vendor, it would greatly aid this issue.

The two new Georgia reactors are way over budget and delayed for various reasons, including having the primary contractor pulling out midconstruction.  That nearly killed the project.  The last one is just now starting to come on line.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2024, 10:07:01 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 22, 2024, 09:48:30 AM

For nuclear plants, one factor may be we don't have a common design that can be copied elsewhere.  I've read each new plant is largely different, which means more regulatory review (and costs).  If we could lock in on a single basic design, by one vendor, it would greatly aid this issue.

The two new Georgia reactors are way over budget and delayed for various reasons, including having the primary contractor pulling out midconstruction.  That nearly killed the project.  The last one is just now starting to come on line.

Really, the only true variable is site conditions. Sites can be manipulated to accommodate almost anything, but I wouldn't advise just buying land willy-nilly. Transmission can also be complicated, from a right-of-way or easement standpoint, especially if there are a lot of landowners in the path. All it takes is one holdout to kill the whole project.

A due diligence report must be completed. We do that for all of our development clients, before they actually close on a deal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2024, 10:10:56 AM

regulatory review, right-of-way or easement standpoint, especially if there are a lot of landowners in the path. All it takes is one holdout

these types of time consuming issues could easily be eliminated 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2024, 10:25:50 AM

$$$$$$ talks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2024, 02:50:38 PM

LAS VEGAS (AP) — A $12 billion high-speed passenger rail line between Las Vegas and the Los Angeles area has started construction, officials said Monday, amid predictions that millions of ticket-buyers will be boarding trains by 2028.

“People have been dreaming of high-speed rail in America for decades,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement released to coincide with a ceremony at the future site of a terminal to be built just south of the Las Vegas Strip.

Buttigieg predicted the project will bring “thousands of union jobs, new connections to better economic opportunity, less congestion on the roads, and less pollution in the air.”

Brightline West, whose sister company already operates a fast train between Miami and Orlando in Florida, aims to lay 218 miles (351 kilometers) of new track between Las Vegas and another new facility in Rancho Cucamonga, California. Almost the full distance is to be built in the median of Interstate 15, with a station stop in San Bernardino County’s Victorville area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2024, 03:09:54 PM

Union jobs …….

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2024, 03:11:03 PM

it's the only way to save the country

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 08:14:03 AM

What to know about the pivotal UN plastics negotiations | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4613167-united-nations-plastics-waste-negotiations-inc-4/)

I'm guessing this ends up with some verbiage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2024, 08:20:21 AM

I'd fly private to the meeting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 08:46:40 AM

IMHO, the UN is "good for" pointless" verbal "agreements" at best, often without any enforcement and usually vague in terms of compliance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 09:57:40 AM

Think that your plastic is being recycled? Think again. | MIT Technology Review (https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/12/1081129/plastic-recycling-climate-change-microplastics/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2024, 10:51:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 09:57:40 AM

Think that your plastic is being recycled? Think again. | MIT Technology Review (https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/12/1081129/plastic-recycling-climate-change-microplastics/)

We no longer bother.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2024, 11:01:51 AM

I did at the place I worked for 23 years

haven't from home

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 11:22:19 AM

We have bins for glass that I use.  Two more bins are for compostables, I use that too.  We have a large dumpster labeled for recycling but most of the stuff I see dumped in there is barely different from general garbage.  I asked for a bin for aluminum cans but that didn't happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2024, 11:23:20 AM

I worried mostly about paper and cardboard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 11:34:06 AM

In an industrial setting, there can be so much waste cardboard not intermingled with other crap as to make it workable.

Polystrene foam can be recycled IFF it's source separated, but I don't think anyone bothers to do it.  There are so many different kinds of plastic that even a waste source that is only plastic is almost unusable.  Even PE mixed with PP is a problem.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 12:19:41 PM

Just 10 percent in new poll have heard a lot about Biden climate action  | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4614746-just-10-percent-in-new-poll-have-heard-a-lot-about-biden-climate-action/)

Nearly half who said climate change is important said they have not heard or have heard very little on what the Biden administration has done on the issue. Another 41 percent said they have heard some of what the administration has done.
Among those who believe climate change is important, 42 percent said Biden has done too little to address the issue. Roughly 26 percent said he has done the right amount and 4 percent said he has done too much, according to the poll.
Respondents were mostly split when asked whether they favored Biden’s or former President Trump’s  (https://thehill.com/people/donald-trump/)polices on climate change. Thirty-six percent said they favored Biden’s, 35 percent favored Trump’s and 29 percent said they favored neither.
More than half of respondents also said there would be no effect on climate change if either Biden or Trump was elected in November. About 44 percent said Biden’s policies would make no difference, while 51 percent said the same about the former president.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 12:37:24 PM

The project is estimated to cost about $12 billion — $3 billion of which the Biden administration greenlighted last year (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4342866-biden-greenlights-money-las-vegas-to-california-rail/).
The trip is expected to take slightly longer than two hours, with trains traveling as fast as 180 mph. This will be nearly twice as fast as driving.
Advocates for the project hope the rail line will lessen transportation costs and reduce traffic and emissions. An estimated 16 million people drive (https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/traffic/this-is-when-you-should-drive-across-the-nevada-california-border-2783942/) from Las Vegas toward Southern California on Interstate 15 every year through the Mojave Desert.
Brightline estimated the project could slash 3 million car trips every year. The company is hoping construction will be done in time for the Summer Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028.

So, about 6 million people projected to use this per year, at a cost of say $200 each.  That would be gross revenue of about $1.2 billion a year.  Let's presume expenses are $0.2 billion to use round figures, so they are investing $12 billion to make, maybe $1 billion, if all goes well.


Government threw in $3 billion, nice of them.  I expect they don't want any return, so $9 billion to make $1 billion, or about 11% ROI, maybe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2024, 12:45:21 PM

Prediction:

FAIL

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 12:48:21 PM

My guess is it gets built, opens around 2030, but has disappointing ridership numbers, and then gets bailed out by government.

I presume the California HSR project is still out there muddling along.  If ANYONE thinks that can succeed, I'd love to hear how.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 12:50:31 PM

Despite some progress, high-speed rail is $100 billion short and many years from reality - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-21/high-speed-rail)

“Schedules are stretching out, demand estimates have fallen and financing is inadequate and unstable,” said high-speed rail peer-review group chair Louis Thompson at a recent state legislative hearing. The state-appointed panel advises the California High-Speed Rail Authority.

[color=var(--primary-body-link-color)]Rail Authority Chief Executive Brian Kelly (https://hsr.ca.gov/about/board-of-directors/board-members/brian-kelly/)[/url], who plans to step down this year, and other rail officials have also acknowledged the questionable funding of a rail system with less than a quarter of its length under construction three years after the the first phase was supposed to be completed.[/font][/size][/color]


The current focus centers on the Central Valley, where officials estimate the 171-mile line from Merced to Bakersfield will be finished between 2030 and 2033.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2024, 01:34:02 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/DqsGaDt.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2024, 12:42:56 PM

Biden administration sets national goal to cut freight emissions to zero | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4617942-biden-administration-sets-national-goal-to-cut-freight-emissions-to-zero/)

The Biden  (https://thehill.com/people/joe-biden/)administration on Wednesday laid out a national goal to cut emissions from freight shipping down to zero. 
A White House fact sheet did not include a date for this goal, but it comes on top of existing goals to reach net-zero emissions for the the transportation sector, as well as the whole U.S. economy, by 2050. 
The administration also said that its strategy, announced in tandem with a Wednesday meeting with zero-emission freight, will seek to prioritize high-pollution areas. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2024, 01:28:59 PM

I'm sure it will all work out just fine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2024, 01:32:33 PM

Most European trains are electrified from what I saw.  We "could" do it here, probably with some rather massive funding.

I "love" goals with no time set.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2024, 08:07:53 AM

I wish I could do a free share on this one. No link available to do that. But if you get QSJ ($4/month) you should read this.

New EPA Emissions Rules Squeeze Coal Plants - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-environment/new-epa-emissions-rules-squeeze-coal-plants-69f7dfc4?mod=djem10point)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2024, 05:46:12 PM

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4621211-forecasters-predict-record-number-of-hurricanes/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 25, 2024, 05:50:23 PM

weather guys are better at predictions than Mel Keiper with the NFL draft

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 08:19:14 AM

Dust devil. Never heard of it until about a year ago. Interesting, weird, whacky stuff.

Caught on Camera: Dust Devil spotted spiraling in Fort Myers (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/04/26/dust-devil-fort-myers/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-04-26-Caught-on-Camer)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2024, 08:25:22 AM

very common in my neck of the woods

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 08:39:37 AM

I recall dust devils as being fairly common when I was a kid.  I don't recall them as much in Cincinnati.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 26, 2024, 09:01:02 AM

I saw a dust devil hit a tent once, after which a very confused gal emerged, trying to make sense of the situation. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2024, 09:12:39 AM

The biggest dust devils I ever saw were in Arizona

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 09:18:26 AM

I read this rather quickly, it looks kind of interesting, but I'm suspicious it's not accurate.

How we know that the sun changes the Climate. Part I: The past | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2024/04/18/how-we-know-that-the-sun-changes-the-climate-part-i-the-past/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 26, 2024, 09:32:43 AM

Very common in the western part of Texas.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2024, 11:51:31 AM

SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWR) just sent an email to its employees saying that it will “wind down” residential solar installations and lay off 1,000 employees.

SunPower is one of the largest residential solar installers in the US. A SunPower spokesperson told me this morning that the company has filed an 8-K, and principal executive officer Tom Werner sent an email to all employees that said in order for the company to achieve “financial viability”:


https://electrek.co/2024/04/24/sunpower-ceases-residential-installations-lays-off-1000/ (https://electrek.co/2024/04/24/sunpower-ceases-residential-installations-lays-off-1000/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 12:00:51 PM

Solar installation for residential is really expensive. It's also not very attractive.

I used to do a lot of work on mansions along Chicago's North Shore suburbs (Wilmette, Kenilworth, Winnetka, Glencoe, Highland Park, Lake Forest) and the vast majority went with geothermal. I only do a little work on those now. Clients are mostly difficult.

Those people wanted stone or copper roofing, etc. Not solar - not for this, which I did do:

585 Longwood Ave Glencoe Il 60022 - Heritage Luxury Homes (https://heritageluxury.com/585-longwood-ave-glencoe-il-60022/)

(https://i.imgur.com/Tn0vymq.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:03:36 PM

I figure if home solar were really attractive, a lot of houses in San Diego would have it.  A few do of course, it is not common.  Then Hawaii and Arizona and Nevada ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 12:12:58 PM

The panels are also very heavy, and subject to damage from weather - more so than tiles.

I'm not sure you can get a hurricane-rated solar roof. I stopped looking at them when I found out the pricing.

We are fully hurricane rated now - whole house, top to bottom. The new roof and structural work I had done brought my premium down about 30 percent alone, from what it was. It's $5,100/year now.

Overall, we are paying about 500 percent less than what it would be if we had no wind mitigation at all. Yes, 500 percent.

Maybe some of the other Florida guys can weigh in here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 12:13:50 PM

@Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) 

Any thoughts?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:16:45 PM

Geesh, I'm obviously paying a whole lot less for condo insurance, some of it is indirectly through the HOA of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 26, 2024, 12:17:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:03:36 PM

I figure if home solar were really attractive, a lot of houses in San Diego would have it.  A few do of course, it is not common.  Then Hawaii and Arizona and Nevada ...

Residential solar in Austin isn't ubiquitous, but it's also not uncommon.  In the more liberal neighborhoods, I'd say the market penetration might be as much as 10%.  In the conservative neighborhoods, probably closer to 5%.

To date, the state and many municipalities have offered substantial rebates on them, but I think a lot of those are running out. Without the rebates, the payback period is so long that it doesn't make sense for most homeowners.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 26, 2024, 12:18:07 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 12:00:51 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/Tn0vymq.jpeg)

Nice digs until high winds toss shingles,garbage can lids and the neighbors gazebo into it. Then of course i couldn't imagine home coverage going up at all after ponying up for it

 Any way was 33° yesterday morning and pretty cool the whole day could hit 80° sun/mon 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2024, 12:42:17 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:03:36 PM

I figure if home solar were really attractive, a lot of houses in San Diego would have it.  A few do of course, it is not common.  Then Hawaii and Arizona and Nevada ...

I think the problem is like anything related to home efficiency. It's expensive to do, the payoff is long, and you may not recoup the investment upon sale to get the payback. 

If you plan a specific house to your "forever house", it can make a lot of sense. If you think your life situation is such that you may have to move (for work), or choose to move (relocation / downsizing upon retirement), it may be money that you put in and never get out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 12:43:28 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:16:45 PM

Geesh, I'm obviously paying a whole lot less for condo insurance, some of it is indirectly through the HOA of course.

HOA is $425, which includes landscaping, internet, TV, infrastructure, and other odds and ends.

Property taxes are $3,300 or so. For the year, with all included, we're about $13,500.00.

We were paying $17K in property taxes up North, plus HOA ($265), internet ($55) and cable ($125).

I find this place to be a bargain, all things considered.

Car insurance is also very high. $2,200/year for one car that is 10 years old. Mostly liability.

Plus, we have to carry 300/300 to meet the umbrella requirements for the car, boat and home. That adds up too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:46:58 PM

We get hit hard on property tax, it's about $13 K a year for us.  Our HOA is normally $1,110 but includes quite a bit of stuff like cable and internet and the desk.  My electric bill averages under $100/mo.  Car insurance is about a grand a year, I got a sizeable rebate when we got the new car, I'm not sure why.

The house in Cincy needed painting every 3-4 years, that was a pop.  Wood siding.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 12:47:27 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2024, 12:42:17 PM

I think the problem is like anything related to home efficiency. It's expensive to do, the payoff is long, and you may not recoup the investment upon sale to get the payback.

If you plan a specific house to your "forever house", it can make a lot of sense. If you think your life situation is such that you may have to move (for work), or choose to move (relocation / downsizing upon retirement), it may be money that you put in and never get out.

Down here they have this thing called Pace Funding. It may be elsewhere too, but I only heard about it here.

Essentially, you can use it for anything energy related, including windows and solar (not pool solar), etc.

The payment gets tied into your property tax bill until it's paid off.

Creative, but it's not for me. I'm done paying the mortgage in 2028 and didn't want a larger property tax bill. We paid cash for the impact windows.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on April 26, 2024, 09:54:37 PM

Brutal batch of tornadoes tonight in Eastern Nebraska + western Iowa.   Incredible footage too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2024, 09:27:12 AM

fortunately not in my area

didn't hear from the daughter in Lincoln so must be fine
tornado in Lincoln was on the north side

didn't stop the baseball game

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2024, 09:40:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:46:58 PM

We get hit hard on property tax, it's about $13 K a year for us. 

County be like :dance:

I be like  :banghead: :character0029:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2024, 09:44:00 AM

hah, mine's less than $3K

but, I have to push snow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2024, 09:47:00 AM

I don't mind pushing snow - infernal temps I do. I might move there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2024, 09:56:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2024, 12:46:58 PM

We get hit hard on property tax, it's about $13 K a year for us.  Our HOA is normally $1,110 but includes quite a bit of stuff like cable and internet and the desk.  My electric bill averages under $100/mo.  Car insurance is about a grand a year, I got a sizeable rebate when we got the new car, I'm not sure why.

The house in Cincy needed painting every 3-4 years, that was a pop.  Wood siding.

Holy crap  Where do you live?? Windsor f ing Castle?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2024, 10:01:57 AM

those guys are RICH!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2024, 10:34:52 AM

Cincy moved on up to a dee-luxe apartment in the sky. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2024, 10:36:05 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2024, 10:34:52 AM

Cincy moved on up to a dee-luxe apartment in the sky.

That was a great show. They don't (can't??) make 'em like they used to. One of many reasons we don't watch TV.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2024, 10:41:19 AM

I do like our local US Rep, quite a bit. We'll see where this one goes.

********************************

[font=Segoe UI, Segoe UI Web (West European), Segoe UI, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif][font=Segoe UI, Segoe UI Web (West European), Segoe UI, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif]WASHINGTON – Today, Congressman Byron Donalds (R-FL) introduced legislation (http://engagement.mail8.housecommunications.gov/f/a/3t4a9rZHXcyvzZVSGxJUWQ~~/AAS2ygA~/RgRoDpymP0RKaHR0cHM6Ly9kb25hbGRzLmhvdXNlLmdvdi9VcGxvYWRlZEZpbGVzL0FtZXJpY2FuX051Y2xlYXJfV29ya2ZvcmNlX0FjdC5wZGZXA3NwY0IKZiimFyxmB8RHZlIXamFtZXNwbWVpZXJAaG90bWFpbC5jb21YBAAABAY~) to bolster America's nuclear energy workforce through an initiative that enhances the dissemination of nuclear energy-related information at American schools in an attempt to alter the stigma associated with nuclear power. The recently introduced initiative also strategically increases awareness about employment information and experiential learning opportunities within the nuclear energy industry and associated nuclear supply chain at American secondary schools, trade schools, community colleges, and institutions of higher education.   "The American Nuclear Workforce Act" (http://engagement.mail8.housecommunications.gov/f/a/3t4a9rZHXcyvzZVSGxJUWQ~~/AAS2ygA~/RgRoDpymP0RKaHR0cHM6Ly9kb25hbGRzLmhvdXNlLmdvdi9VcGxvYWRlZEZpbGVzL0FtZXJpY2FuX051Y2xlYXJfV29ya2ZvcmNlX0FjdC5wZGZXA3NwY0IKZiimFyxmB8RHZlIXamFtZXNwbWVpZXJAaG90bWFpbC5jb21YBAAABAY~) is the 77th piece of legislation introduced by Congressman Donalds in the 118th Congress and is the 23rd proposal of the Congressman's "2023-24 Nuclear Energy Legislative Package." (http://engagement.mail8.housecommunications.gov/f/a/7l2j6Emeb61W9G8-DrpKlA~~/AAS2ygA~/RgRoDpymP0RTaHR0cHM6Ly9kb25hbGRzLmhvdXNlLmdvdi9VcGxvYWRlZEZpbGVzL0FtZXJpY2FuX051Y2xlYXJfV29ya2ZvcmNlX0FjdF9HcmFwaGljcy5wZGZXA3NwY0IKZiimFyxmB8RHZlIXamFtZXNwbWVpZXJAaG90bWFpbC5jb21YBAAABAY~) The bill is co-sponsored by Representatives Brandon Williams (R-NY), Ralph Norman (R-SC), Scott DesJarlais (R-TN), and Troy Nehls (R-TX). American Conservation Coalition Action, America First Policy Institute, American Nuclear Society, Consumer Energy Alliance, Mothers for Nuclear, Nuclear Alternative Project, Uranium Producers of America, and U.S. Nuclear Industry Council have also endorsed this piece of legislation.   "A robust nuclear energy workforce is critical to our nation's energy independence and security," said Rep. Donalds. "As America plans to increase its utilization of nuclear energy in the years to come, a proactive and forward-looking nuclear workforce strategy is much needed. We must collectively work together to change nuclear energy’s negative connotation, and increasing awareness about the benefits that nuclear can provide at our nation’s educational institutions will help spark a new generation of interest and participation within the industry."   “We best serve the next generation of minds that will propel nuclear energy forward by providing them with robust education and access to information," said Rep. Williams. "I applaud Rep. Donalds for his leadership in this space.”   "The American nuclear energy industry will need a strong workforce to meet a growing demand for clean, safe, and reliable nuclear energy," said American Conservation Coalition Action President Chris Barnard. "With more people leaving the industry than entering it, we must reverse this trend. The American Conservation Coalition Action (ACC Action) and our thousands of young conservative leaders across the country applaud this effort to bolster the nuclear energy workforce of the future, which will unleash this clean energy source and increase access to high-paying jobs."   "A skilled, well-trained, and capable workforce is imperative as the advanced nuclear industry begins to commercialize novel, smaller reactor technologies," said U.S. Nuclear Industry Council President & CEO Todd Abrajano. "The U.S. Nuclear Industry Council supports the framework of the American Nuclear Workforce Act and what it does to encourage the growth of the nuclear industry’s workforce into the future."   "The Uranium Producers of America applaud the introduction of the American Nuclear Workforce Act, important legislation that will help inspire and train the next generation of leaders in the American nuclear power industry. The American nuclear power industry employs over half a million people, bringing jobs to local communities of all sizes, and contributes $60 billion annually to the U.S. GDP while accounting for 20% of our power generation," said the Uranium Producers of America. "The developments in the nuclear industry expected over the coming years will require a more direct approach to attracting and training the talent needed to keep our reactors functioning and our country’s energy secure. This bill is a thoughtful and tailored way to ensure we meet those goals while growing the industry and economy more broadly. The Uranium Producers of America are grateful to Congressman Donalds for his continued leadership in advancing the nuclear energy industry, and we urge Congress to swiftly pass this important bill to better secure the industry for generations to come."[/font][/font][/color]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2024, 11:28:04 AM

The tornado that just moved through the northern suburbs of Omaha, NE just ranked in the top 20 of all time by rotational velocities (Vrot) measuring tornado strength. 230 mph gate to gate. Has a shot to be the first official EF-5 in 11 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 05:30:47 PM

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 05:37:52 PM

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/does-it-matter-how-much-united-states-reduces-its-carbon-dioxide-emissions

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2024, 06:06:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 05:30:47 PM

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/

what a bunch of crap

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 06:13:31 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/climate/nuclear-small-modular-reactors-us-russia-china-climate-solution-intl/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 06:28:21 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 01, 2024, 06:06:55 PM

what a bunch of crap

Is their math off?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2024, 09:03:34 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 06:28:21 PM

Is their math off?

just another hit piece

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 09:32:34 PM

Why is it a hit piece?  Are the data wrong?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2024, 10:12:22 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2024, 09:32:34 PM

Why is it a hit piece?  Are the data wrong?

Its one sided and suggests the environment did not improve under Trump and will get worse if reelected

Trump did a lot for the environment

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/210114-Final-Accomplishments-Document.pdf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 07:52:48 AM

I think it is focused on CO2. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2024, 09:27:44 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 01, 2024, 09:03:34 PM

just another hit piece

You don't believe CO2 is responsible for warming, so how can you consider it a hit piece? Shouldn't you be cheering that CO2 emissions will go up? You are the one who posted it should be higher, 1500 ppm, because that's good for plants. After all don't you predict that US production of oil will go up under Trump? Drill, baby, drill, and all that? It's been one of your constant complaints* about Biden, after all...

(* Misguided because US oil production is at all time highs, but I digress.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 11:09:15 AM

Their numbers may be wrong but I would think we’ll have more CO2 under Trump than Joe.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 11:10:13 AM

My real point is they claim a billion more GT per year when China generates 12 GT per year. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2024, 11:24:48 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2024, 09:27:44 AM

You don't believe CO2 is responsible for warming, so how can you consider it a hit piece? Shouldn't you be cheering that CO2 emissions will go up? You are the one who posted it should be higher, 1500 ppm, because that's good for plants. After all don't you predict that US production of oil will go up under Trump? Drill, baby, drill, and all that? It's been one of your constant complaints* about Biden, after all...

(* Misguided because US oil production is at all time highs, but I digress.)

What I argued was mans additional co2 contribution of 120 ppm didnt seem large enough to be the cause of global warming
Never said co2 did not cause warming

but please go back to sleep as this is obviously a sensitive subjuct for you and I really dont want to see you all riled up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2024, 11:43:53 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 02, 2024, 11:24:48 AM

What I argued was mans additional co2 contribution of 120 ppm didnt seem large enough to be the cause of global warming
Never said co2 did not cause warming

but please go back to sleep as this is obviously a sensitive subjuct for you and I really dont want to see you all riled up

You also posted the youtube of that guy who said that we should be at 1500 ppm CO2. So are you now saying that you don't think it's a good thing if Trump's policies lead to additional CO2 emissions relative to Biden's?

Either way, it's not a hit piece. It's not like they made up anything. It's an analysis of the effects of the policies that candidates state they will implement. Is that not pretty much fair game in political reporting? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2024, 12:55:12 PM

well, Trump was Pres in 2020 when CO2 emissions went down

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 01:01:36 PM

That is true.   The article claims it would rise more under Trump than Biden which seems plausible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2024, 01:05:33 PM

I guess I'd have to read the article but I'm not sure Trump would start building coal plants or shut down wind farms or shut down electric vehicle manufacturing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 01:24:48 PM

It claims Biden would do more.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2024, 01:28:44 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 02, 2024, 12:55:12 PM

well, Trump was Pres in 2020 when CO2 emissions went down

Nobody was driving to work and non-essential businesses were closed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2024, 02:52:05 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 02, 2024, 01:05:33 PM

I guess I'd have to read the article but I'm not sure Trump would start building coal plants or shut down wind farms or shut down electric vehicle manufacturing

It's usually helpful to read an article before forming an opinion on it...

Quote

In the “Biden” scenario in the figure below (blue line), all federal climate policies currently in place or in the process of being finalised are assumed to continue. The scenario does not include any new climate policies that might be adopted after November’s election.

The administration’s current climate policies are expected to cut US emissions significantly, bringing the country close to meeting its 2030 target range. Nevertheless, a gap remains between projected emissions and those needed to meet the 2030 and 2050 targets (green).

The “Trump” scenario (red line) assumes the IRA and other key Biden administration climate policies are rolled back. It does not include further measures that Trump could take to boost fossil fuels or undermine the progress of clean energy.

Basically Trump has pledged to reverse the IRA and other certain policies. Whether he would be successful in doing so if elected is unclear (i.e. if the R team didn't have control of both branches of Congress it would make it difficult), but that seems to be the key differentiator where. 

Elsewhere in the article it actually makes clear that his "Drill, baby, drill" target actually isn't even included in this analysis--probably because it's a slogan and may not actually have any concrete policy metrics already defined, so it can't be definitively analyzed. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2024, 02:55:30 PM

I thought "Drill, baby, drill" was a pretty solid sophomore album from Andrew Dice Clay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2024, 03:13:55 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2024, 02:52:05 PM

It's usually helpful to read an article before forming an opinion on it...

usually

and drilling for oil doesn't contribute much to CO2 emissions

gotta burn baby, burn

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 03:20:14 PM

How much oil is burned is not directly related to how much we produce. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2024, 04:16:55 PM

ed zachery

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2024, 04:42:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 03:20:14 PM

How much oil is burned is not directly related to how much we produce.

Not entirely true...

If we produce a lot more oil, it increases worldwide supply, which should reduce the price of oil. To the extent demand is elastic, lower priced oil will increase consumption. 

Now, obviously there are other factors. If we increase production and OPEC (or someone else) limits production to keep worldwide supply at the same level, then our extra production will likely have little to no effect on consumption. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 04:48:51 PM

That is why I said not DIRECTLY.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2024, 04:53:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 04:48:51 PM

That is why I said not DIRECTLY. 

Fair enough. 

But indirect effects are still worth considering. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2024, 04:59:23 PM

Indirect effects can be more important. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2024, 12:27:10 PM

I got this email from Georgia Power, and saw a BUNCH of pretty "nasty" comments in social media about it all.

Plant Vogtle is now the largest generator of clean energy in the United States! We are very excited to share that Vogtle Unit 4 has officially entered commercial operation and is serving Georgians right now. Vogtle Unit 3 entered service in July of last year.  Vogtle Units 3 & 4 (https://app.georgiapowermail.com/e/er?cid=email_marketing_ca-vogtle-unit4-cod-apr-2024&scElqUid=1282550&scElqOpco=gpc&s=1955765340&lid=775&elqTrackId=3bb8f161f14f4ec092318cf72a83fe12&elq=5fc43a00f3fa4e20958ac411079151ea&elqaid=1190&elqat=1) are an essential part of Georgia Power's commitment to delivering clean, safe, reliable and affordable energy. Nuclear energy offers high reliability and efficient operations around the clock. And, with all four units now in operation, Plant Vogtle— located near Waynesboro, Georgia— is now the largest generator of clean energy in the nation, expected to produce more than 30 million megawatt hours of energy each year. Together, Units 3 & 4 will produce enough electricity to power an estimated 1 million homes and businesses with reliable, emissions-free energy for the next 60 to 80 years. The benefits of these units will be enjoyed by our children and our children's children for decades to come—that is something we at Georgia Power are incredibly proud of.   As we mark the completion of the expansion, we're grateful for the leadership and the foresight of the Georgia Public Service Commission, as well as the steadfast dedication from all the project's co-owners (Oglethorpe Power, MEAG Power and Dalton Utilities) along the way. So many people have worked tirelessly to deliver the first newly constructed nuclear units in the U.S. in more than 30 years. It was a challenging, complex process, but we know that this new generation source represents a long-term investment into the energy future of our state.   With our state experiencing extraordinary growth, it’s important to us that we continue to meet your energy needs not only today, but decades from now. Plant Vogtle is an essential part of how we do that. This project began with you, our customers, in mind, and we’re so happy to have these new units serving you today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2024, 01:30:16 PM

I'd encourage them to get started on units 5 and 6.  ASAP!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2024, 01:36:31 PM

No large scale nuclear power reactor is even contemplated in the US right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2024, 01:39:29 PM

well, if they don't care

I'm going to continue driving my V-8s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2024, 02:34:11 PM

Fewer Americans see climate change as very serious problem: Survey | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4646749-fewer-americans-see-climate-change-as-very-serious-problem-survey/)

The Monmouth University poll (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_050624/), conducted on April 18-22 shows a 10-point decline in Americans who says climate change is a “very serious” problem, falling from 56 percent in September 2021 to 46 percent in April.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 06, 2024, 02:39:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 06, 2024, 02:34:11 PM

Fewer Americans see climate change as very serious problem: Survey | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4646749-fewer-americans-see-climate-change-as-very-serious-problem-survey/)

The Monmouth University poll (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_050624/), conducted on April 18-22 shows a 10-point decline in Americans who says climate change is a “very serious” problem, falling from 56 percent in September 2021 to 46 percent in April.

Interesting. I wonder if that might be due to other things (such as inflation and two ongoing international wars) crowding out climate change as a "very serious problem", rather than an actual change in their perception. That said, obviously we were in the middle of COVID in Sep 2021, so it's not like there wasn't anything going on lol...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 06, 2024, 03:49:51 PM

Hey @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) and @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) -- y'all doing okay with all of the flooding in and around Houston?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 06, 2024, 04:05:47 PM

Quote from: utee94 on May 06, 2024, 03:49:51 PM

Hey @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) and @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) -- y'all doing okay with all of the flooding in and around Houston?

we just had lots of rain but no flooding at my place

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 06, 2024, 05:59:20 PM

No flooding around my place. NE Houston and San Jacinto River getting flooded.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 06, 2024, 08:35:33 PM

We got a crazy cold front over the weekend. Should be headed east any day now. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 07:47:28 AM

Does anyone here have much faith this will work out, as in, become profitable?  I think they have a chance, but not 50-50.  The numbers don't really appeal to me unless something major shifts.

[color=var(--primary-text)]Last month saw the official start of work on Brightline West, the $12-billion high-speed rail line which will connect the Las Vegas Strip to Southern California. This week offered a first look at the fleet of trains that will ferry passengers between the two endpoints.[/color]

[color=var(--primary-text)]Last week, Brightline announced that Siemens Mobility has been selected as the preferred bidder to build a fleet of 10 American Pioneer 220 (AP220) train sets for the rail line. They are to be build and delivered in advance of Brightline's anticipated start of passenger service in 2028.[/color]

[color=var(--primary-text)]The AP220s, expected to have capacity for as many as 450 passengers within a seven-car train, are named for their maximum operational speed of 220 miles per hour. However, Brightline is expected to run at top speeds of between 180 and 200 miles per hour.[/color]

[color=var(--primary-text)]=AT38yTqV37_oN26SxHXBRt29xCk5e834vWwgoc6clI3ZXJHLohbeCVGGEJNTd9V197muVCjooglr5WE8ewNtGAK6sDgzAUoOEy37ifIfxffu35j8N3-SGVcsIaxL5a7fCkA_uEvKvtis-3YC7XEqVBPsaFEGNN3tVL7JWLF9lPLYM8tEKqFgYJDxDFN3pQtgqAizy8sG0_aNOVPJ9INEPScSfluolmmeExgaG4RuCBg"][color=var(--blue-link)]https://la.urbanize.city/.../heres-look-brightline-wests...[/color] (http://"https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fla.urbanize.city%2Fpost%2Fheres-look-brightline-wests-future-high-speed-trains%3Ffbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0_Y9ddmLrA8sL9sTOJwgkOr8YRwhzYN9grMTjfwVCO7xOdpe-iVwUAzf0_aem_Ae4yEYIdy39IJK2N6IOO20V_4EIz_RKnJYNsZzPbw1ugJbRHujoGD2-NMeX2A2t7C6aWBFl8zbE0iQJPZ9xEbnvd&h=AT3sxoxWtFHB8xbHyaMr5s86RmckkCwXHNzoLXJ-Z6x3011OffvO-ZXPLthwx6HnaS-ofxzVsKjXtoKJeSppYTtVRmTzf9ko9XKNdYVgKLALbA0OH366lIxpb8h01LQZWw&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0)[/size][/color][/font]

=AZW4Xom8Jn7C-iJje7ODRo8Zzt5sf2W-ebfp2yihm-zGfak7lZpHhfUUF2jSUnBzOinNXXnalOGaNWxbdkXIbGs7boPSimTbG3kWmVnsjUKzR-YFpvhL_2CSu08eB8kqQ1XOpcsgPXtvwuHulggvtM2BDlSwobwymTpfayretS4_Jq1pvOnF2mssngav3szvfYjXo2s67IPSAW2cwuxpyoKy&__tn__=*bH-R"] (http://"https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=970919355033833&set=pcb.970919398367162&__cft__[0)(https://scontent-atl3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/441077309_970919345033834_8120059003046302287_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5f2048&_nc_ohc=v3d3MYeTM-0Q7kNvgGJAXlW&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-2.xx&oh=00_AfAe03RC9Y_K2cEwErBDvAX3vIbywLSyNRW1jbpo97zzzg&oe=663FEAE6)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 07:52:57 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 06, 2024, 02:39:32 PM

Interesting. I wonder if that might be due to other things (such as inflation and two ongoing international wars) crowding out climate change as a "very serious problem", rather than an actual change in their perception. That said, obviously we were in the middle of COVID in Sep 2021, so it's not like there wasn't anything going on lol...

Who is "we"?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 07:56:34 AM

I dimly recall that by September 2021 most things here returned to near normal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 08:09:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 07:56:34 AM

I dimly recall that by September 2021 most things here returned to near normal.

I dimly recall that by September 2020 most things here returned to near normal.

Some people still wore masks and such, but everything was open, without government restrictions. Some businesses chose to remain closed or implement their own restrictions (masks, distancing).

We did not go to Chicago for Christmas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2024, 08:13:31 AM

most of my recollections are dim

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2024, 08:15:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 07:47:28 AM

Does anyone here have much faith this will work out, as in, become profitable?  I think they have a chance, but not 50-50.  The numbers don't really appeal to me unless something major shifts.

folks better buy a round trip ticket in LA
that way they can get home after the Casino boss empties their pockets

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 08:34:30 AM

Texas goes big on solar + storage that can power 41,000+ homes | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2024/05/06/texas-goes-big-on-solar-storage-that-can-power-41000-homes/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0gALulh_e5hqdQw8iQAeBqpeQfCETPhH-aWjZRqhxVUQKrwuupEqi8sQM_aem_AYgHy5c7H7o_IZiEN9dxCUkyYMJq19bY1Rw_oJJd1MH8hG8wpiNUvCAZ2zqFwcEosedj_uDSOfHhRjG8wZZtBksq)


When I see "can power" with the word "can", I get suspicious, realizing that probably reflects its maximum output.  A nuclear plant of couirse can operate at or near max power all the time, and one power reactor equals at more than ten of these "big" solar power installations.  

April 29, 2024 – Georgia Power declared today that Plant Vogtle Unit 4 has entered commercial operation and is now serving customers and the State of Georgia. The new unit, which can produce enough electricity to power an estimated 500,000 homes and businesses, will provide reliable, emissions-free energy to customers for at least 60 to 80 years. Vogtle Unit 3 entered commercial operation on July 31, 2023. (read more) (https://www.georgiapower.com/company/news-hub/press-releases/vogtle-unit3-goes-into-operation.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 08:38:46 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 08:34:30 AM

Texas goes big on solar + storage that can power 41,000+ homes | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2024/05/06/texas-goes-big-on-solar-storage-that-can-power-41000-homes/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0gALulh_e5hqdQw8iQAeBqpeQfCETPhH-aWjZRqhxVUQKrwuupEqi8sQM_aem_AYgHy5c7H7o_IZiEN9dxCUkyYMJq19bY1Rw_oJJd1MH8hG8wpiNUvCAZ2zqFwcEosedj_uDSOfHhRjG8wZZtBksq)

Goes "big"?

41,000 homes is like one small Dallas suburb.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2024, 08:40:01 AM

41,000 is a small town in Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2024, 08:42:18 AM

the woke folks think it's easy

Just replicate that a million times and "bingo" ya got 41 million homes covered

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 08:46:35 AM

Scientists sound alarm as growing threat looms over coastal states: 'We are preparing for the wrong disaster' (thecooldown.com) (https://www.thecooldown.com/outdoors/rising-sea-levels-threat-gulf-of-mexico-communities/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 08:49:35 AM

Aside from this new item, one can simply look at our current power sources in the US and trend lines and realize we're going to be dependent on fossil fuels for decades.  Maybe W&S and cut into that some, fine with me I guess, but we're still going to be highly dependent on fossils for a LONG time, barring some breakthrough or economic collapse.  The reality of it is that W&S MAY be able to provide for the additional power requirements without changing the base much at all, look at the coal segment.

(https://i.imgur.com/4RCMvYl.png)

It also seems very apparent that to make much of a real shift in this would require a MASSIVE nuclear investment.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2024, 09:12:17 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 07:52:57 AM

Who is "we"?

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 08:09:08 AM

I dimly recall that by September 2020 most things here returned to near normal.

Some people still wore masks and such, but everything was open, without government restrictions. Some businesses chose to remain closed or implement their own restrictions (masks, distancing).

We did not go to Chicago for Christmas.

The world was still in the "what is going to happen next?" phase.  

Remember, the piece we're discussing here is a poll about what people consider to be a "very serious" problem. So we're talking not about government policy re: closures, or masks, or what the economy was doing. We're talking about public perception. 

And in Sept 2021, we were approaching the time of year where it would be concerning that if there was going to be a seasonal spike of COVID, we would be approaching it. 

So my point was that people, when polled, might still consider COVID to be distracting them from climate change as far as a ranking of "very serious" problems. Although maybe it was dropping at that time as we seemed to be coming out of it. Much like I think that inflation and the two international wars right now might be distracting them from climate change as far as a ranking of "very serious" problems. Because humans aren't as complex or rational as we like to tell ourselves, and we often consider how "serious" a problem is by relative comparison.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 09:14:43 AM

Some of us have the ability to process more than others.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2024, 09:21:15 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 09:14:43 AM

Some of us have the ability to process more than others.

Yeah, well I read that the poll was of 808 people chosen at random, not 808 847badgerfans.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 09:26:09 AM

808 847badgerfans would be awesome.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 07, 2024, 09:29:31 AM

Sept 2020 things were not even close to normal.  Big 10 barely had a football season, SEC played only conference games, very little attendance.    I recall A&M didn't play our bowl game.....the following season due to COVID.  I think my kids were still required to wear masks in school the first half of the year.  We were still wearing masks at work.  

So no, not even close to normal.  Maybe Sept 2021, but not Sept 2020.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 09:31:40 AM

The Monmouth University poll (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_050624/), conducted on April 18-22 shows a 10-point decline in Americans who says climate change is a “very serious” problem, falling from 56 percent in September 2021 to 46 percent in April.


The idea is that opinions have evolved because other situations changed in the background of this, from 2021.

Maybe so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 09:34:16 AM

Quote from: Gigem on May 07, 2024, 09:29:31 AM

Sept 2020 things were not even close to normal.  Big 10 barely had a football season, SEC played only conference games, very little attendance.    I recall A&M didn't play our bowl game.....the following season due to COVID.  I think my kids were still required to wear masks in school the first half of the year.  We were still wearing masks at work. 

So no, not even close to normal.  Maybe Sept 2021, but not Sept 2020. 

It felt normal around here. That's where I was going. We travelled to places that we were allowed to. Didn't go to Chicago because of their quarantine nonsense, although we did blow right through O'Hare a couple of times and hit up our friends in the burbs and family in Wisconsin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 09:40:02 AM

I agree a LOT of stuff was not normal in September 2020.  But the poll dates from 2021.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2024, 09:40:54 AM

We didn't have a lot of restrictions here, but it was far from normal. Like half of California was squatting here in their motor homes in order to escape their own archaic restrictions. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2024, 09:51:08 AM

I will say Sept 2021 felt fairly normal even here in CA. By summer 2021 we had taken an overnight trip to San Diego and then a vacation to Seattle, so obviously we were willing to get on an airplane for non-work reasons. 

However when Omicron hit in Nov 2021, it threw everyone for a bit of a loop. We didn't all know it was going to be so mild when cases started spiking like crazy. 

But the entire point was that outside events might be coloring how people responded to the two polls over a two-year gap. Someone who is worried about outside things, such as inflation, two wars, the coming election, etc, might not be thinking as much about climate change and even if they rationally believe the problem is as serious as they believed two years ago, may not say "very serious" when a pollster asks them because they're preoccupied with other stuff right now. 

And as I mentioned in my response to badge, the current poll was listed as only 808 participants with a +/- 4.1% margin of accuracy, which is pretty wide. Especially since they tried to dive deeper into the sub-demographics of the polling group and track changes within young people vs older people, which probably has an even wider margin of accuracy as the sample sizes of the sub-demographics are smaller. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2024, 10:16:57 AM

Monmouth University poll of 808 people

***yawn***

I'm not putting much stock in it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 10:19:07 AM

It suggests an interesting possible trend, that's all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2024, 10:22:59 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 10:19:07 AM

It suggests an interesting possible trend, that's all.

Or it's publication bias...


(https://i.imgur.com/v72exJE.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2024, 10:35:25 AM

What If All Ice Melted: Cities in a World Without Ice | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/what-if-all-ice-melted-cities-in-a-world-without-ice/vi-AA1nFw9B?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=5ec08d8850e04d8ee0ec33a2e458c416&ei=12)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2024, 02:28:14 PM

Annual GWPF lecture: Climate Uncertainty and Risk | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/04/annual-gwpf-lecture-climate-uncertainty-and-risk/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2024, 09:05:18 AM

The world’s largest direct air capture plant is set to open in Iceland this week, a potentially significant development in the fledgling carbon dioxide removal industry’s quest to lower global temperatures.

Designed by the pioneering Swiss startup Climeworks, the so-called Mammoth plant would use fans, filters, piping and geothermal energy to permanently remove up to 36,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year. That’s nine times the annual removal capacity of Orca, another Climeworks facility that is currently the world’s largest operating direct air capture plant.

Despite the technological achievement, Mammoth would only be able to remove less than 1 percent of the annual emissions of a typical coal-fired power plant, according to EPA data. But it is poised to be at least the second commercial facility that could pull tens of thousands of tons of carbon from the air annually, with much larger plants in development.


“It’s a signal of growth for the carbon removal ecosystem,” Ben Rubin, executive director of the Carbon Business Council, said of Mammoth’s planned debut Wednesday. The trade association represents more than 100 carbon management startups, but Climeworks, one of the industry’s most established players, is not a member of the council.

The new plant is opening as the planet continues to blow past heat records, with 10 consecutive months through March setting all-time highs. To avoid catastrophic temperature increases, scientists have determined that the world needs to both slash heat-trapping emissions while also massively scaling up deployments of carbon dioxide removal facilities.

Buyers from the private and public sectors have stepped in to create demand for such plants. Microsoft on Tuesday inked a record-setting 3.3-million-metric-ton agreement with Stockholm Exergi, a Swedish firm that would remove carbon by burning biomass for energy while capturing and storing the emissions. Last month, Denmark’s energy agency awarded contracts to three firms that have promised to collectively remove over 1.1 million metric tons of carbon from the air.

Meanwhile in the U.S., a biomass burial facility run by Graphyte — likely the world’s largest operating carbon removal plant — is on pace to scrub 15,000 metric tons of CO2 from the atmosphere in 2024. The company plans to increase the removal capacity of that Pine Bluff, Arkansas, plant next year to 50,000 metric tons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2024, 09:23:49 AM

A typical passenger vehicle emits about 4.6 metric tons of CO₂ per year. This assumes the average gasoline vehicle on the road today has a fuel economy of about 22.2 miles per gallon and drives around 11,500 miles per year. Every gallon of gasoline burned creates about 8,887 grams of CO₂.

So, for reference, 36,000 mt of CO2 is equivalent to about 8,000  cars per year.  We emit about 35 BILLION mt per year overall.  So we'd need 70,000 of these plants to offset that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2024, 10:10:44 AM

Nuclear power already produces 45.5 percent of the country’s carbon-free energy, says Christine Csizmadia, senior director of state governmental affairs and advocacy for the Nuclear Energy Institute.Map showing the status of Midwestern state moratoria on new nuclear plant construction as of January 2024

No SMRs are currently operational, though the first ones are scheduled to be built and online by early next decade in Texas and Wyoming.

Across the Canada-U.S. border, Saskatchewan’s electric utility, SaskPower, signed an agreement with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy in January 2024 to advance plans for possible SMR development in the province.

A few months earlier, too, the Canadian federal government committed up to $74 million to the province to help pay for pre-engineering work, technical and environmental studies, and community engagement.

(https://i.imgur.com/qyKZWUs.png)

According to Csizmadia, compared to typical, larger reactors, SMRs are more economical and can be scaled to local needs. They also are less costly to build, take less time to complete, have fewer risks and provide more flexibility on siting, proponents say.

Given that many states — including Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin — have stated goals or statutory requirements for 100 percent carbon-free energy by 2040 or 2050, Csizmadia says lifting any moratoria on new nuclear plant construction is the most important policy step states can take today.

“How are we going to meet those goals without something that operates 24-7 and is completely carbon free?” she says.

(https://i.imgur.com/OHtaQbx.png)

To date, Midwestern state actions range from lifting or modifying moratoria to studying the potential impacts on energy production, the economy and environment.

Some lawmakers also have proposed new SMR-related tax credits in hope of encouraging development.

Here is an overview of recent developments in the Midwest.

Details on new Illinois law
At one time, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin had moratoria on new nuclear plants. Now, only Minnesota has a blanket ban in the Midwest, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

Wisconsin lifted its moratorium in 2016 (AB 384), and at the end of 2023, Illinois partially ended its ban when legislators overwhelmingly approved HB 2473.

The new law allows for SMRs of up to 300 megawatts starting in January 2026. By that date, the state’s Emergency Management Agency and Office of Homeland Security must develop a regulatory framework for SMRs. The law also authorizes the governor to commission a study on issues such as:

• existing SMR technology and the future of research and markets for these advanced reactors;
• a risk analysis of these reactors;
• federal permitting and rules;
• the storage and disposal of waste from SMR facilities.

Illinois already gets 54 percent of its electricity from large nuclear plants, says Illinois Sen. Sue Rezin, the Senate sponsor of HF 2473.

SMRs are a good alternative, she adds, because they can be built on the site of old coal or gas plants that already have power lines connecting them to the grid; there’s no need to build new power lines to a new site.

“It’s incredibly important for us to have them online so we can achieve our carbon goals [100 percent carbon-free] by 2045,” she says.

The new law is a revised version of a Rezin-sponsored bill that Gov J.B. Pritzker vetoed in August 2023. At the time of his veto, the governor had cited an “overly broad” definition of advanced reactors as well as the lack of a regulatory framework.

Midwest states studying future of nuclear power
Indiana lawmakers passed SMR-related bills in both 2022 and 2023.

The first measure, SB 271 from 2022, defines small modular reactors as “clean energy projects” and makes them eligible for financial incentives. That law also required utility regulators to adopt new rules governing SMR projects. The second measure, SB 176 of 2023, raised the power rating definition for SMRs from 350 MW to 470 MW.Map showing the sites and status of nuclear reactors in Midwestern states as of January 2024

In Michigan and Ohio, recent new laws and legislative appropriations have those states taking a closer look at the potential next generation of nuclear energy. Whether SMRs are part of that future remains to be seen.

Ohio’s budget (HB 33) creates a new Nuclear Development Authority. This nine-member, governor-appointed authority is charged with improving nuclear research and development in Ohio, and making the state a “leader in the development and construction of new-type advanced nuclear-research reactors.”

In 2022, Michigan legislators directed the state’s Public Service Commission to hire an outside consultant to study the state’s nuclear energy generation and potential, including SMRs. (HB 6019 included $250,000 for that study.)

A December 2023 draft report says nuclear energy is necessary to meet Michigan’s new goal of 100 percent carbon-free energy by 2040.

Michigan Rep. Pauline Wendzel is proposing another policy option to advance SMRs: tax incentives. Under her bill, HB 4753, the state would provide a corporate tax credit equal to 15 percent of the costs related to SMR research, development or design.

“This has to be the future,” says Wendzel, who has two traditional nuclear power plants in her district. “Michigan has the highest number of engineers per capita, and we’re always looking for ways to stay ahead of the curve and attract that talent here. This just seemed to fit that perfectly.”

SMR measures also have been proposed this biennium in at least two other Midwestern states:

• Minnesota’s HF 3002/SF 3120 calls for a study of various aspects of SMRs. For example, what impact could they have on the state’s power grid, environment and economy? What laws or rules would need to be changed to allow for SMR construction and operation?
• Two Nebraska measures (LR 21 and LR 178) call for studies examining the feasibility of SMR projects.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2024, 11:14:57 AM

‘World’s largest’ plant to suck carbon out of the air and turn it into stone opens in Iceland | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/climate/direct-air-capture-plant-iceland-climate-intl/index.html)

These things take a LOT of power, OK, so this one claims to be using "clean geothermal" power, fine with me.  But what is said clean power were just used for, well, power?  Maybe Iceland doesn't need any more?  Would it be better to use excess power to make say hydrogen which could be shipped (with some difficulty) elsewhere?

Dunno.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 08, 2024, 01:58:49 PM

SciFi show "The Peripheral" shows a future London 2099, where giant stone statues are erected all over the city, built as a byproduct of filtering and extracting carbon from the super-polluted air.



(https://i.imgur.com/C3Vm1YF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2024, 09:26:49 AM

We really need some rain here.

(https://i.imgur.com/8CsPpV8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2024, 11:27:58 AM

From horsepower to electric vehicles, the market always beats mandates | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4651373-from-horsepower-to-electric-vehicles-the-market-always-beats-mandates/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2024, 12:19:49 PM

Climate protesters try to break into Tesla Germany factory: Police (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/climate-protesters-try-to-break-into-tesla-germany-factory-police.html)

Climate protesters angry about Tesla’s plans to expand its Berlin-Brandenburg Gigafactory in Germany tried to break into the plant on Friday, according to a statement from local police.
“Multiple unauthorized people are trying to enter the ground of the Tesla factory,” Brandenburg police said via X Friday. “We are in the process of preventing this.”

“The situation is dynamic,” a Brandenburg police spokesperson told CNBC Friday, adding that there have been multiple roadblocks in the area due to the demonstrations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2024, 12:37:55 PM

I thought Tesla was on the side of the climate freaks?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2024, 12:55:55 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 10, 2024, 12:37:55 PM

I thought Tesla was on the side of the climate freaks?

Seems to be this:

Quote

Climate protesters have expressed concerns about Tesla’s plans, which entail cutting down approximately 250 acres of forest in a rural community of fewer than 8,000 residents near a nature conservation area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2024, 01:25:02 PM

well then, I agree

I'm not sure why there isn't a push to stop the cutting of trees and certainly the burning of trees.
Planting and growing trees should be rewarded

might be as productive as banning electric weed whackers and gas stoves

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2024, 02:15:04 PM

Climate activists attack case holding the original Magna Carta in London | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/climate-activists-attack-case-holding-original-magna-carta-london)

I think this trend will increase as reports come in about how "we" are not getting anywhere close to the "targets".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2024, 02:31:37 PM

I think most here expect the "climate news" that is reported to get more and more "draconian" on the next few years and out.  Folks will read this and some will get more and more antsy, some to the point of "acting out".  None of that will help of course, and probably will hurt their cause with normal folks.

If Trump is elected, folks will blame him, if he's not, folks will blame Republicans.  OK, fine, but nobody has anything remotely akin to a realistic plan out there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2024, 03:59:10 PM

Great project. I hope it goes through. Big Sugar is suing to block it, of course.

EAA Reservoir | The Everglades Foundation | United States (https://www.evergladesfoundation.org/eaa)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on May 10, 2024, 04:00:50 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2024, 03:59:10 PM

Big Sugar is suing to block it, of course.

Big Sugar might also be a diabetes awareness organization

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on May 10, 2024, 04:21:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 10, 2024, 02:31:37 PM

I think most here expect the "climate news" that is reported to get more and more "draconian" on the next few years and out.  Folks will read this and some will get more and more antsy, some to the point of "acting out".  None of that will help of course, and probably will hurt their cause with normal folks.

If Trump is elected, folks will blame him, if he's not, folks will blame Republicans.  OK, fine, but nobody has anything remotely akin to a realistic plan out there.

Here is a really simple plan, build more of these

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on May 10, 2024, 04:21:46 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 10, 2024, 04:00:50 PM

Big Sugar might also be a diabetes awareness organization

You spelled that wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2024, 04:42:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2024, 12:55:55 PM

Seems to be this:

Quote

Climate protesters have expressed concerns about Tesla’s plans, which entail cutting down approximately 250 acres of forest in a rural community of fewer than 8,000 residents near a nature conservation area.

Don't blame them then there are plenty of areas they can knock down other things. Need the trees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2024, 08:53:46 AM

Folks posted photos of the northern lights here last night, I didn't look for them, forgot all about it.

Might look tonight, we go to a concert at 8 PM.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2024, 09:06:03 AM

I awoke at 2:53am for my nightly piss break

watched the lights from my driveway for about 15 minutes or so

first time I've seen them

not real vibrant or bright here but worth the walk outside

much more impressive than a solar eclipse, I'm sure

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2024, 10:11:18 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2024, 09:35:11 AM

Obviously, charging at home is a third of that price (here), so it works.  And some workplaces etc. offer free charging, for now.

But, for me, it's a nonstarter. 

My neighbor thought our chargers were free and was surprised when I told him otherwise.

I see relatively little about this on line, which is curious.  I think it's a MAJOR deal for many.

It also depends on the cost of electricity at your home.

Electric is very expensive in some places. Here we are mostly natural gas. I'd like to see about 6 nukes in Florida, and I know exactly where to put them.

(https://i.imgur.com/CFeFB3A.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2024, 10:14:01 AM

However much electricity costs at your home, it will be about 3x that at an EV charging station, apparently.  Even at 2x, it's at best break even with gasoline.

I'd bet a lot of EV owners don't check the math or worry about it.

But maybe this is widely understood, I tend to doubt it.  I've posted this on FB and gotten some remarkably angry responses, none of which dealt with the math and the facts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2024, 10:46:24 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2024, 10:11:18 AM

It also depends on the cost of electricity at your home.

Electric is very expensive in some places. Here we are mostly natural gas. I'd like to see about 6 nukes in Florida, and I know exactly where to put them.

someone else's backyard

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2024, 11:04:22 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2024, 10:46:24 AM

someone else's backyard

A couple of those are very close to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2024, 11:19:24 AM

There are zero large nuclear power reactors even being proposed at the moment, and I doubt that changes.  SMRS are the best hope, and the first of them could still be five or more years out, probably more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2024, 11:36:25 AM

Mine are situated along rivers, so there could one design for the plant, adjusted for site development outside of the plant.

My plan would also include treatment - not to potable, but to eliminate and harvest nutrients and metals. TDS would be unchanged, mostly.

This is another project I like a lot. Lake O is a big problem, and this could fix it.

EAA Reservoir | The Everglades Foundation | United States (https://www.evergladesfoundation.org/eaa)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2024, 01:06:04 PM

So, it's really hot today. This is gonna be like a 10 day thing here.

(https://i.imgur.com/DpCyBYd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2024, 01:11:19 PM

good week to be in Fargo, ND

(https://i.imgur.com/NIJYD3b.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2024, 01:29:37 PM

Overcast drizzly here and coolish.  Turned the AC off.

Just back from the liquor store, I mean, the gym, yeah, the gym.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2024, 02:07:58 PM

High 60s and mostly sunny on the forecast here all week. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 15, 2024, 02:09:17 PM

BISMARCK, N.D. (KXNET) — Despite spending hundreds of millions of dollars on cleaner energy, a company that owns a power plant near Center says that new rules from the EPA will cripple both it and plenty of other similar groups.

As part of the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards rules, coal-fired plants would be required to capture 90 percent of their greenhouse gases by 2032. Last week, North Dakota joined more than 20 other states in suing the EPA to block its new power plant emissions rule. Minnkota Power, a leading industry voice on carbon capture technology, warns the rule will likely result in more blackouts and higher consumer bills.

EPA puts out new, stricter mandates for coal power plants
The government’s plan will focus on carbon capture, but Minnkota CEO Mac McLennan says that won’t be ready to go online for roughly five more years. Meanwhile, Minnkota has already invested over $400 million in emissions control, and is already preparing to take Project Tundra online.

“We just don’t know if this technology is going to work,” National Rural Electric Cooperative Association CEO Jim Matheson said. “It’s unproven, and it’s difficult to make decisions on that in the next two years when you’re going to have to say what you’re doing to moving forward.”

“Today,” explains McLennan, “The EPA is asking for CCS to be put on with very little data associated with how you demonstrate it. Part of the question is if they’ll let guys like us be successful in putting Tundra on so we can demonstrate the capabilities. What can we get captured?”

The EPA is now taking public comment on the matter for 60 days. Attorneys from over 20 states will then plead their case in the DC Circuit Court of Appeals in an attempt to stop the new rule, which could take effect in three years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 10:04:27 AM

Tornadoes and straight-line winds up to 100 mph hit Houston yesterday evening.  Some parts of the city look like a war zone, it's pretty bad.

Power is out all over the city, it's not just neighborhood poles that are down, but the big substation transmission lines:

(https://i.imgur.com/et1dpcu.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Zp1YRH0.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/1Wu2ZdV.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/uxaKgJO.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/jxQEpN2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 10:10:15 AM

OUCH.  I would have guessed HT power line towers would resist 100 mph winds in a hurricane zone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 10:12:03 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 10:10:15 AM

OUCH.  I would have guessed HT power line towers would resist 100 mph winds in a hurricane zone.

I think those were the ones in nearby suburb Cypress, where one of the tornadoes touched down.  Estimated speed was 128 mph inside the funnel.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2024, 10:13:06 AM

Holy crap.

Is @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) OK?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 10:14:30 AM

More pics.  Houston has seen its share of hurricanes, the damage from these storms was much, much worse.

(https://i.imgur.com/6vZXwnF.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/ivXtyNf.jpeg)

(https://i.imgur.com/dxT6Yah.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 10:18:38 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/2M9yHKo.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 10:20:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2024, 10:13:06 AM

Holy crap.

Is @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) OK?

Would like to hear everything's okay from @Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706)  too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 10:22:31 AM

They may be without power obviously, but OK we hope.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 10:26:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 10:22:31 AM

They may be without power obviously, but OK we hope.

Yeah there's gonna be quite the run on generators, gasoline, and toilet paper (probably) in Houston this weekend.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2024, 10:43:59 AM

Wow... That's not going to be a quick cleanup. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2024, 10:46:14 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2024, 10:43:59 AM

Wow... That's not going to be a quick cleanup.

It will take years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 10:53:46 AM

Weeks-to-months just to reestablish power to everyone.  At the peak there were about 1 million customers without power yesterday.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 10:56:55 AM

Houston weather: Hurricane-force wind gusts kill 4, smash skyscrapers and cut power to hundreds of thousands | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/17/weather/flooding-south-storms-houston-friday/index.html)

[color=var(--style-type-primary-1-highest)]Most of Houston’s traffic lights are down: Traffic lights across the city are out and debris from damaged buildings and toppled trees are covering roadways, making driving conditions dangerous. “Downtown is a mess. It’s dangerous due to the glass and the lack of traffic lights. So stay at home,” Mayor Whitmire said Thursday.[/color]

[color=var(--style-type-primary-1-highest)]Hurricane-force wind gusts reported in Texas and Louisiana: The National Weather Service in New Orleans reported wind gusts as strong as 84 mph around the city. Wind gusts of 74 to 78 mph were measured just east of the Houston metro Thursday evening, according to the National Weather Service.[/color]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2024, 01:45:07 PM

Power just came back on

no damage that I can find

My daughter lives about 10 miles away had a tree fall over lost her fence and had a large tree limb go through he roof and into her kitchen

repairs are underway

who needs hurricane season we have our own

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 01:48:15 PM

I started to hit "like" that you're OK and then read about your daughter, so not like.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2024, 01:48:23 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 17, 2024, 01:45:07 PM

Power just came back on

no damage that I can find

My daughter lives about 10 miles away had a tree fall over lost her fence and had a large tree limb go through he roof and into her kitchen

repairs are underway

who needs hurricane season we have our own

Glad to hear you're more or less in good shape.

I feel sorry for those without power in the coming weeks, it's about to get hot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2024, 01:56:24 PM

Yep
I was very worried
We cant get any info out of our electric supplier CenterPoint

usually they will give you an estimate for when power will be restored but not on this one

all they say is were working on it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2024, 01:58:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 01:48:15 PM

I started to hit "like" that you're OK and then read about your daughter, so not like.

I'll keep my "like"...

@longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) glad to hear that even if your daughter suffered some damage, that she's ok. 

I'm sure it was terrifying. We had a neighbor's tree fall on our house years ago while laying in bed, which thankfully wasn't over the "interior" of the house, it was a front porch overhang. But it scared the hell out of us!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2024, 02:19:37 PM

thanks for your concern

my daughter is in good spirits

her boyfriend owns a construction company so she's in good shape

Im not sure but the wind had to reall be blowing hard to drive a tree limb through her roof like it did

she also lost a metal patio cover which she said is no where in sight

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 02:35:59 PM

So long as no one was injured, the rest can be fixed, but I'm sure some in that area were injured, or worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2024, 02:41:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2024, 02:35:59 PM

So long as no one was injured, the rest can be fixed, but I'm sure some in that area were injured, or worse.

so far there have been 4 deaths that have been discovered

one or maybe two from falling trees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 17, 2024, 08:18:20 PM

Yeah, I’m about 50 miles south of Houston proper. Probably got 1-3 inches of rain.  Not much winds etc. We never even lost power. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2024, 08:42:30 PM

scary shit fellas

get yer head down and count your blessings

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2024, 10:25:15 AM

How we know that the sun changes climate (II). The present | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/17/how-we-know-that-the-sun-changes-climate-ii-the-present/#more-31234)

I have spent the last 10 years trying to understand how climate changes naturally, without preconceived ideas, by examining a huge amount of information and data. The evidence has led me to an alternative theory of climate change to that of the IPCC. It is not based on changes in solar activity, but, to my surprise, it explains them. There is much more to climate than the Sun, but the conclusion is that the 20^th century solar maximum has been a major contributor to recent warming. And it is not lost on me that this means that controlling our emissions, which has become the main goal of the UN and the Western world, may not have much effect on future climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 19, 2024, 10:49:24 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2024, 10:25:15 AM

How we know that the sun changes climate (II). The present | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/17/how-we-know-that-the-sun-changes-climate-ii-the-present/#more-31234)

I have spent the last 10 years trying to understand how climate changes naturally, without preconceived ideas, by examining a huge amount of information and data. The evidence has led me to an alternative theory of climate change to that of the IPCC. It is not based on changes in solar activity, but, to my surprise, it explains them. There is much more to climate than the Sun, but the conclusion is that the 20^th century solar maximum has been a major contributor to recent warming. And it is not lost on me that this means that controlling our emissions, which has become the main goal of the UN and the Western world, may not have much effect on future climate.

Everyone seems so sure man is causing global warming with co2 emission of which I admit Im skeptical that an increase of 120 ppm just seems too small to be the main cause

I believe this world and the universe has many cause and affect activities we have not discovered yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2024, 11:00:18 AM

The math on the 140 ppm increase in CO2 from around 280 to 420 ppm is calculable and doesn't yield much warming on its own.  Then you get into complex feedback mechanisms to explain what is observed.  I've looked into the various models and agree they, to my way of thinking, are way way too complex to be predictable, and in fact, they are complex so they can "match" what we observed in the past.  That can be OK, but then again, "All models are wrong, some are useful".

I'm also unclear why there are four or five major models, with very different weighting factors and components, it makes me "nervous".  And the "bad news" is that it's about equally probable they are too conservative, things could get worse, a situation we've discussed a bit here, sudden melting of permafrost for example, you  hit a kep balance point and the climate really goes to hell.

My bottom line is "I don't know."  One thing I do know is that "we" are not doing anything like near enough to ameliorate the issue if this is mostly due to CO2.  And we're not going to either, there is no way.  

My buddy the physicist is in Algeria, he sent me a photo of sand dunes and I asked if they had any rain in the forecast.  He said it had not rained there in 20 years.  The next day, he sent a photo of it raining ... and we are getting unusual amounts of rain in unusual areas, my wife said Roissy airport (CDG) was almost closed due to standing water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2024, 11:48:09 AM

A computer model developed by NASA scientists at the Goddard Institute for Space Science shows that without carbon dioxide, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse and plunge Earth into an icebound state. Today, the average temperature is +15°C. Within 50 years the average temperature would drop to -21°C without the warming provided by atmospheric carbon dioxide. The delicate link between the planet's temperature and carbon dioxide has also been proved by geologic records of CO2 levels during ice ages and interglacial periods. The temperature difference between an ice age period and an interglacial period is only 5°C. During previous ice ages, CO2 levels were near 180 parts per million (ppm). During the warm interglacial periods the levels were near 280 ppm. Today we are living in an interglacial period that started 12,000 years ago and may last another 40,000 years. Scientists continue to worry that, as CO2 levels approach 400 ppm, we are in uncharted territory with no historical precedent as far back as 1 million years.

10Page63.pdf (nasa.gov) (https://spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov/weekly/10Page63.pdf)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2024, 08:00:14 AM

Ocean water is rushing miles underneath the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ with potentially dire impacts on sea level rise | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-intl/index.html)

A semi-"Doomsday" possibility.  There is some possibility a lot of "bad things" could coincide and cause horrific things, I don't know when, but sooner than 2050.  If this is some kind of war, we're losing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2024, 08:03:58 AM

Is not there also a possibility that that water "rushing" under the glacier gets frozen by the glacier?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2024, 08:50:02 AM

If the incoming water is frozen by the glacier, it has to be heating up the glacier, so that wouldn't be good (unless the heat is dissipated by some outside mechanism).

Water's heat of fusion is unusually high.

This is just one possibility of a rather sudden dramatic shift in our reality, I don't think anyone can say it's likely in a decade, or unlikely, or anything. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 21, 2024, 10:26:43 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/5KNLSOG.png)

The Brazos river, which runs through my town near the coast, is in moderate flood stage.  It's not out of it's banks yet, and it does this kind of flooding regularly.  But it wouldn't take much rain at points North to send it into a major flood, which is what happened in 2016 (the year before Harvey).  That year the river flooded in many areas, backing muddy water into neighborhoods and subdivisions with the sun shining and only a few inches of rain in most places.  All the water came from up-country flooding.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 21, 2024, 11:07:50 AM

Meanwhile I'm still praying for rain.  I live in the light brown, the red is one county over and represents the majority of the Lake Travis recharge basin.

(https://i.imgur.com/GoTt8UX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 11:15:03 AM

bunch of rain in Nebraska and Iowa in the past 24 hours, more on the way

it's welcome

the hail at 3am wasn't welcome - work car sitting outside the Holiday Inn
luckily not large enuff to bother the car

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on May 21, 2024, 11:34:24 AM

It was 69° Sunday with Northern breeze,yesterday 90° and muggy - today more of the same

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2024, 12:07:14 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 21, 2024, 08:00:14 AM

Ocean water is rushing miles underneath the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ with potentially dire impacts on sea level rise | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-intl/index.html)

A semi-"Doomsday" possibility.  There is some possibility a lot of "bad things" could coincide and cause horrific things, I don't know when, but sooner than 2050.  If this is some kind of war, we're losing.

This was one of the plot points in that "Ministry For The Future" book. The water below supposedly could effectively "lubricate" the contact between the bottom of the glacier and Rick leading to increased rate of glacial movement into the ocean. Which would be bad. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 12:15:28 PM

I'm 1000' above sea level

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2024, 12:23:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 12:15:28 PM

I'm 1000' above sea level

13.8' here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2024, 12:24:27 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 12:15:28 PM

I'm 1000' above sea level

Me too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 12:27:40 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2024, 12:23:35 PM

13.8' here.

you have a boat

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2024, 12:31:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 12:27:40 PM

you have a boat

Doesn't do much good if waves are the same height as my boat is long.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2024, 12:58:53 PM

This is a crock.

Biden releasing 1 million barrels of gasoline from Northeast reserve in bid to lower prices at pump (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/biden-releasing-1-million-barrels-of-gasoline-from-northeast-reserve-in-bid-to-lower-prices-at-pump/ar-BB1mN7pE?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=4e0ab71da34e4a8095164e548fc46bbb&ei=12)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 02:02:11 PM

I paid $2.95/gallon Sunday

not bad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 02:03:15 PM

ALBANY, New York — Gov. Kathy Hochul has cracked the door open to the potential for new, small nuclear power plants as a way for the state to try to meet its ambitious climate goals.

The prospect was once dismissed by top officials and carries a whiff of irony after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo shuttered the state’s second-largest nuclear plant, Indian Point in Westchester County, in 2021.

But as the state’s far-reaching zero emissions electricity goal by 2040 looms, there’s more openness to the idea.


https://www.eenews.net/articles/why-new-york-may-be-warming-to-new-nuclear-power/ (https://www.eenews.net/articles/why-new-york-may-be-warming-to-new-nuclear-power/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2024, 02:12:42 PM

NY state has zero chance of net zero by 2040, it's ludicrous to even have it as a "goal".  And they are supposed to be at 70% renewable by 2030.  They today are around 60% natural gas for electricity.  

Even if they went full bore to SMRs, they couldn't get there in time.

All these "mandates" are amusing to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2024, 02:26:00 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/DIPF8sA.png)

It hasn't changed much since 2019.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2024, 02:51:05 PM

not much coal

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2024, 02:52:57 PM

They shut down coal. It’s mostly NG. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2024, 03:25:00 PM

How renewables could beat natural gas in US generating capacity within 3 years – in numbers | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2024/05/21/renewables-natural-gas-generating-capacity-ferc/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0z9ibc1zML-Y3qwLjXC9y36MhgeybyOBsGrygF7Og_azi3j6-XC0oObzw_aem_AWY6KmAFYWI7grbBgm3BWm8cGxkJFT-ltZTG46WvDJI93W8LgfEJCr04PP92AhZNIV_-dW4JHY4juL44tfkMXtZl)

The latest capacity additions have brought solar’s share of total available installed utility-scale (i.e., >1 MW) generating capacity up to 8.25%, surpassing that of hydropower (7.88%). Wind is currently at 11.77%. Solar and wind combined now account for more than a fifth (20.02%) of the US’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. With the inclusion of biomass (1.14%) and geothermal (0.33%), renewables now claim a 29.37% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity.

For perspective, a year ago (https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-march-2023), solar’s share was 6.67% while wind and hydropower were 11.51% and 7.97%, respectively. The mix of all renewables totaled 27.67%.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Hawkinole on May 22, 2024, 06:11:06 PM

Watch: Drone video shows tornado hit wind turbines near Greenfield (desmoinesregister.com) (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/weather/2024/05/22/reed-timmer-drone-footage-wind-turbine-greenfield-iowa-tornado/73801918007/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on May 22, 2024, 07:12:28 PM

they said 4 people died,what a shame,is any other country pitching in to help them out? If not screw all foreign aide take care of them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Hawkinole on May 22, 2024, 10:59:34 PM

Iowa news reports said people from surrounding counties were coming to assist. Greenfield is about 3.5 hours from me, so people are not coming from here. A fifth person who was on a highway (not in Greenfield) died when her car was picked up by a tornado. Scary. 
I always wondered what would happen when a twister strikes a wind turbine that is 20-stories tall. I wondered if the blades would spin faster, or whether they would be propelled into the sky. The article says those wind turbines are 400 tons and the blades can weigh 65 tons. The video answered my questions about what happens. Numerous wind turbines collapsed in Iowa during the storms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 06:37:13 AM

Quote from: Hawkinole on May 22, 2024, 10:59:34 PM

Iowa news reports said people from surrounding counties were coming to assist. Greenfield is about 3.5 hours from me, so people are not coming from here. A fifth person who was on a highway (not in Greenfield) died when her car was picked up by a tornado. Scary.
I always wondered what would happen when a twister strikes a wind turbine that is 20-stories tall. I wondered if the blades would spin faster, or whether they would be propelled into the sky. The article says those wind turbines are 400 tons and the blades can weigh 65 tons. The video answered my questions about what happens. Numerous wind turbines collapsed in Iowa during the storms.

Renewable?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 08:55:27 AM

Here we go!

First Tropical Disturbance reported in the Southeastern Atlantic (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/05/23/first-tropical-disturbance-2024/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-05-23-The-Weather-Aut)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2024, 09:02:30 AM

There isn't much built by humans that gets above ground that survives an EF 4.  EF 5?  Fuggidaboudit.

A wind turbine would be "toast", and obviously flying turbine blades would be deadly.

(https://i.imgur.com/TjYLmuD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 23, 2024, 09:40:40 AM

Wind is currently at 11.77%. Solar and wind combined now account for more than a fifth (20.02%) of the US’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. With the inclusion of biomass (1.14%) and geothermal (0.33%), renewables now claim a 29.37% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity.

For perspective, a year ago, solar’s share was 6.67% while wind was 11.51%
____________________________

wind not growing...... government subsidies went away?

Older windmills end of life?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 09:48:07 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 23, 2024, 09:40:40 AM

Wind is currently at 11.77%. Solar and wind combined now account for more than a fifth (20.02%) of the US’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. With the inclusion of biomass (1.14%) and geothermal (0.33%), renewables now claim a 29.37% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity.

For perspective, a year ago, solar’s share was 6.67% while wind was 11.51%
____________________________

wind not growing...... government subsidies went away?

Older windmills end of life?

In 2012. We had about 7 square miles of wind farm work with BP(!) and they pulled the plug.

Had to once again scramble for other work.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 23, 2024, 10:19:14 AM

so, Warren Buffet got his

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2024, 10:53:17 AM

Ocean Heat Content (miami.edu) (https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0eJbo-dLttZ9m5UaGjRGAPMmplpRKjHnajaRlq5nPgnQy55d3NUCLhkis_aem_AZbFLhxnj4Oxs7q9kLG1IoDuvdiWBXr0yJloPlvoq2zfnyp7SzOoygU5BUioD209btsCrWprFr_Vr2m69mIIPM6S)

(https://i.imgur.com/4b8kdUY.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 10:56:45 AM

Could be a rough season for us down here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 23, 2024, 12:10:58 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 10:56:45 AM

Could be a rough season for us down here.

Looks like 2023 was close to the predicted 2024

If I remember right you guys came out pretty good in 2023

I think wind patterns are much more important in where a hurricane hits then elevated water temp 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 12:20:30 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 23, 2024, 12:10:58 PM

Looks like 2023 was close to the predicted 2024

If I remember right you guys came out pretty good in 2023

I think wind patterns are much more important in where a hurricane hits then elevated water temp

North of not so much, but it's not nearly as populated in the Big Bend area as it is here or on the other side. Idalia hit pretty hard up there.

Hurricane Idalia - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Idalia)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 23, 2024, 12:38:06 PM

A tornado hit my mom's hometown of Temple, Texas yesterday.  That's about 60 miles north of Austin along I35.  Pretty gnarly damage in some areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 12:56:38 PM

Tornado season is wicked so far. 

I don't worry too much about hurricanes after riding out Ian. I do worry about all the tornadoes than can be spun out of the bands.

My house is now fully to the most updated Florida codes for hurricanes. 

Not sure what a tornado would do to it though.

Lightning rods are coming soon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2024, 01:29:14 PM

An EF 4 or 5 tornado will level anything man can build above ground short of a nuclear bunker.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 23, 2024, 03:52:15 PM

Quote from: utee94 on May 23, 2024, 12:38:06 PM

A tornado hit my mom's hometown of Temple, Texas yesterday.  That's about 60 miles north of Austin along I35.  Pretty gnarly damage in some areas.

Here is some footage on that tornado

looks bad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdMw7JhrlGg

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 05:04:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 23, 2024, 01:29:14 PM

An EF 4 or 5 tornado will level anything man can build above ground short of a nuclear bunker.

I wonder what my house could withstand.

I mean, we had 165 sustained with 225+ gusts.

And now it's even more fortified.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 23, 2024, 05:31:10 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2024, 05:04:54 PM

I wonder what my house could withstand.

I mean, we had 165 sustained with 225+ gusts.

And now it's even more fortified.

its not wise to challenge mother nature

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 23, 2024, 06:11:34 PM

tornados are weird beasts

with the extreme low pressure many buildings explode

always crack a couple windows to let the pressure out 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 23, 2024, 09:09:24 PM

I was thinking the other day…does anybody remember the whole “ save the rain Forrest” campaign from the 80’s and 90’s ?  Why don’t you ever hear about that anymore ?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2024, 09:16:09 PM

It worked. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 23, 2024, 09:53:19 PM

save the whales?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2024, 08:34:46 AM

Quote from: Gigem on May 23, 2024, 09:09:24 PM

I was thinking the other day…does anybody remember the whole “ save the rain Forrest” campaign from the 80’s and 90’s ?  Why don’t you ever hear about that anymore ? 

Because now it's all about humans being bad.

Remember in the 1970's when we were told we would be entering an ice age?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2024, 08:37:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2024, 08:34:46 AM

Remember in the 1970's when we were told we would be entering an ice age?

This was a minority view based on some solar influences that turned out to be very apparent.  But, Time magazine picked it up as a cover and it got popularized.  It was never a mainstream climate concept, and climate science at the time was just starting out.  (I think it still is.)

The rain forests are still being reduced in size of course.  The "save the whales" effort was more successful.

The notion that rain forests produce our oxygen is largely wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2024, 08:42:44 AM

the notion back then that the world would run out of oil by now was largely wrong

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2024, 08:54:08 AM

It was completely wrong.  Fracking has something to do with that, though it mostly relates to NG.  A LOT of projections back when were wrong, it's the nature of things.

A LOT of projections NOW are wrong also.

I continue to HOPE the climate change disaster scenarios are wrong, but I also fear it could end up being worse.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2024, 09:04:43 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2024, 08:54:08 AM

A LOT of projections NOW are wrong also.

they aren't projected as projections.  They are projected as absolutes and science.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 24, 2024, 09:07:59 AM

I remember as a 17-year old, getting into a discussion with the father of a girl I was dating, as I was waiting for her to finish getting ready for our date.  I was trying to sound smart and repeated some of that nonsense I'd heard about the world running out of oil by the year 2000.  I'd heard it at a symposium I attended for prospective engineering students, from a well-regarded Petroleum Engineer from Texas A&M.

Here dad just laughed at me, told me that was bulljive and to find better sources.

That was truly embarrassing, but on the flipside, I was boning his very hot blonde daughter, so I guess it turned out alright.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2024, 09:10:33 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 24, 2024, 09:04:43 AM

they aren't projected as projections.  They are projected as absolutes and science.

I can't think of any projection projected as being absolute, except perhaps in occasional really poor reportage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2024, 12:04:33 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/xTFh4eA.png)

This was an EF4.  A thing different with tornadoes is obviously the wind speed goes from 10 mph to 200 mph suddenly, within seconds.  A hurricane builds over hours, a building has some time to adjust on its foundations.  And then there is the pressure drop.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 25, 2024, 07:12:03 AM

I think, the deforestation was likely being grossly exaggerated, But the average person had no way to know. But anybody with access to Google or other search engines/mapping can pull up a map/satellite picture and see for themselves that there is a lot of rainforest in S America. 

(https://i.imgur.com/bMQQ8ce.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 25, 2024, 07:17:51 AM

Quote from: utee94 on May 24, 2024, 09:07:59 AM

I remember as a 17-year old, getting into a discussion with the father of a girl I was dating, as I was waiting for her to finish getting ready for our date.  I was trying to sound smart and repeated some of that nonsense I'd heard about the world running out of oil by the year 2000.  I'd heard it at a symposium I attended for prospective engineering students, from a well-regarded Petroleum Engineer from Texas A&M.

Here dad just laughed at me, told me that was bulljive and to find better sources.

That was truly embarrassing, but on the flipside, I was boning his very hot blonde daughter, so I guess it turned out alright.

My father in law has been in the peak oil crowd for ~30 years. Over the last 5 years or so we’ve had some very heated arguments about it. I told him that the US is producing more oil than it ever has in its history and that “we” will never run out of oil, not for hundreds of years. Because as oil gets more expensive we will simply extract it from places that it costs more to drill for but it’s nevertheless still there. 

He’s near the end now, so he’ll never live to see it anyways, but he literally thinks we are on the brink of running out. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2024, 07:18:22 AM

There is a lot left. And a lot is not. 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Deforestation/tropical_deforestation_2001.pdf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on May 25, 2024, 07:34:00 AM

That link appears to date from 2001.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2024, 07:41:54 AM

Yup, deforestation in Brazil has slowed, but is continuing.  There is still a lot left.  This is from 2018.

(https://i.imgur.com/KbKcm7h.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2024, 07:42:42 AM

Oddly enough, most of the fiber used in our toilet paper was eucalyptus from Brazil.  Those trees grow to "yield" in seven years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2024, 07:55:40 AM

Lots of people have 7+ years of toilet paper in their basements.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2024, 08:06:55 AM

It's kinda amusing how after the US clearcut most of the lower 48 we now complain about Brazil.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2024, 02:04:46 PM

Aerial image of Houston power loss. Amazing.

Houston area's 1 million power outages after 100 mph derecho spotted from space | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/houston-power-outages-derecho-spotted-from-space)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2024, 08:55:13 AM

Germany has so much energy coming from solar panels that it's outpaced consumer demand and pushed energy prices into a steep nose dive — even going past zero into the negative, according to Business Insider, creating an Alice in Wonderland energy market in which consumers of electricity can be paid to use the extra power.

https://futurism.com/the-byte/germany-solar-power-electric-prices (https://futurism.com/the-byte/germany-solar-power-electric-prices)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2024, 08:56:59 AM

This of course is a problem with wind and solar.  To have "enough", you need to build way more than enough, as much as 3x, or have a lot of storage capacity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2024, 11:22:45 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 25, 2024, 08:06:55 AM

It's kinda amusing how after the US clearcut most of the lower 48 we now complain about Brazil.

and yet it's been said there are more trees growing today in the US then ever before

is that not correct

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2024, 11:27:29 AM

Reforestation in the US has been extensive, yes.  I'm pretty sure there were more trees in the Lower 48 in preColumbian times than today.

We did clearcut most of the forested lands.  Much has grown back, or turned into tree farms, but by now means all.

Prior to the arrival of European-Americans, about one half of the United States land area was forest, about 1,023,000,000 acres (4,140,000 km²) estimated in 1630. Forest cover in the Eastern United States reached its lowest point in roughly 1872 with about 48 percent compared to the amount of forest cover in 1620.

Prior to the arrival of [color=var(--color-progressive,#36c)]European-Americans (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European-Americans)[/iurl], about one half of the United States land area was forest, about 1,023,000,000 acres (4,140,000 km²) estimated in 1630. [color=var(--color-progressive,#36c)]Forest cover[/color] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forest_cover) in the Eastern United States reached its lowest point in roughly 1872 with about 48 percent compared to the amount of forest cover in 1620. The majority of deforestation took place prior to 1910 with the Forest Service reporting the minimum forestation as 721,000,000 acres (2,920,000 km²) around 1920.^{[color=var(--color-progressive,#36c)][2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_in_the_United_States#cite_note-3)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]} The forest resources of the United States remained relatively constant through the 20th century.^{[color=var(--color-progressive,#36c)][3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_in_the_United_States#cite_note-ForestResources-4)[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]} The Forest Service reported total forestation as 766,000,000 acres (3,100,000 km²) in 2012[/font][/size][/color]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2024, 11:32:16 AM

your statement of clear cut most of the lower 48 was a slight exaggeration it appears

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2024, 11:45:23 AM

Not really, clear cutting does not mean the land ended up deforested later.  Trees grow back of course.

(https://i.imgur.com/BYiQm8M.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/BGI5cOc.png)  Forests in 1620.

(https://i.imgur.com/5MtZb7j.png)Amount of VIRGIN forest remaining 1920.

It's a way of noting most of the virgin forest was cut down (a good  bit of it by native Americans before Columbus).  Once cut, quite a bit grew back, either naturally or with human replanting.

(https://i.imgur.com/D8NZc45.png)

Quite a bit of south Georgia is forested, but as tree farms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2024, 11:50:06 AM

Atlanta is nicknamed a "City in a Forest", which is kind of true, though it's not unique.

Atlanta tree canopy - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanta_tree_canopy#:~:text=Atlanta%2C often called a)


(https://i.imgur.com/Ajp6xmy.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2024, 07:18:04 PM

Forest acres at countrys beginning 830 million lower 48

Forest acres today 620 million lower 48

Considering this country currently has over 300 million folks
lowering our forest acres by only 25% really is pretty good

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2024, 08:57:18 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Yz3m3WK.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2024, 09:03:19 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/FA6GuYE.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2024, 09:12:25 AM

Our weather is very typical, not bad today so far, but we may get showers later.  72°F at the moment.

My wife says she's surprised how much rain we get, and it's a lot really, but often it rains hard for 30 minutes and then clears out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2024, 09:54:20 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2024, 09:03:19 AM

[img width=500 height=155.996]https://i.imgur.com/FA6GuYE.png[/img]

not to mention the humidity
not for me - my hair would be a fright!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2024, 10:16:01 AM

Breakthrough Swiss tech cuts 80% of radioactive waste in nuclear plants

Radioactivity of nuclear waste could be reduced from thousands of years to less than 500 years.

https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/nuclear-waste-reduction-tech (https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/nuclear-waste-reduction-tech)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2024, 11:09:25 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/MnqsRYF.png)

Snapped this as I was walking back from getting a hair cut.  Up to 78°F now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2024, 06:26:34 PM

Another wind drought pulls combined renewables output below last year | RenewEconomy (https://reneweconomy.com.au/another-wind-drought-pulls-combined-renewables-output-below-last-year/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3jTm-e_gIQoPrN49e19eq1-HGy_JprCtpI7YMJuYrnuD8x_gIt4bvBBHk_aem_AfVlByI_HUvJMYhLJHKzuv45bYD4pGYU38EI8qX5ojCuY9wcL6wsqcOK9j7gLQO6Pvn8RFy0PTzt90wiVV0TVW2Y)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2024, 07:08:40 PM

the wind lull is expected to last less than a week in total.

probably caused by climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2024, 07:32:19 PM

It's windy AF here today.  No wind lull issues here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2024, 07:02:11 AM

Without a lot of storage, or a lot of backup power, wind and solar have serious issues. Obviously.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2024, 07:48:13 AM

coal and NG store energy very well

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2024, 08:22:58 AM

NG "peaker plants" are often used today to meet excessive power demands, but they are expensive because they don't run all the time.  One can fire up a jet turbine to produce electricity quickly, they are akin to the engines on a jet aircraft.

But without storage, places dependent on W&S can at times generate too much power which can make prices for electricity go negative.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2024, 05:28:52 PM

New York City is about to get its largest battery storage project | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2024/05/29/new-york-city-largest-battery-storage-project/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3uDJJp8_4aIvfIZ1ClhsCVNeYpcREzp2G9iVNLK3CKjYWRxR-f0CTKbFc_aem_AffJszyVyIqvsfruY-Gm4sH_q0YI7NBLNJH8HOsGkVAZYMMfbK7uXYhFVYnSuG7hHMWjCVCBqqglRSB85Av7NkLh)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2024, 05:43:03 PM

just hope I'm not helping to pay for it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2024, 05:59:47 PM

Low 60's sunny with a cool northern breeze off the lake.Much better than that muggy 90° crap 2 weeks back

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2024, 08:38:09 AM

Texas, Florida, or Zona???

(https://i.imgur.com/OsIx49E.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2024, 10:59:52 AM

Bama.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2024, 12:22:40 PM

How Carbon-Free Nuclear Energy Helps Bridge the Gap to Net-Zero - Sponsor Content - Southern Company (theatlantic.com) (https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/southern-company-2023/bridge-the-gap-to-net-zero/3816/?sr_source=Facebook&sr_lift=true&utm_source=FB_SR_P_3895_CST_A_GPH&utm_medium=CPC&utm_campaign=simplereach&fbclid=IwAR2uDOZ0TumsvLLuP1qBvXCXbRkCuebQVCY1BpNf71BuNa39RswWw70P0lo_aem_ASW1gfqvUYHaB0LM4WuPSyzRIIadYU_MmJEOYb-Gh5TlHstQUTeLJH_OXBKeVxjsn4IUPObdDtJuvhz2xLOoYycs)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2024, 02:03:37 PM

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4691849-our-carbon-capture-experiment-is-the-antithesis-of-environmental-justice/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2024, 02:33:04 PM

Fact checking the fact checkers on my Prager U video | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/26/fact-checking-the-fact-checkers-on-my-prager-u-video/#more-31263)

The fact is, we can’t predict the future climate. It’s simply not possible. And everybody should acknowledge that. And every scientist does.
While humans do influence the climate, we can’t control the climate. To think we can is the height of hubris, the Greek word for overconfidence.
What we can do is adapt to whatever mother nature throws our way. Human beings have a long history of being very good at that. We can build sea walls, we can better manage our water resources, and implement better disaster warning and management protocols.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 30, 2024, 03:58:47 PM

Weather related I suppose. Lots of shit for pets. Canned pet food, but not canned human food?

I don't understand the whole dog thing down here.

I guess I'll stock up on batteries.

(https://i.imgur.com/I3GjzKR.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 30, 2024, 04:07:51 PM

Check the dog thing in Cali 

And then compare to south Dakota 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2024, 07:05:01 AM

Punta Gorda reaches record high temp of 100 degrees (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/05/30/punta-gorda-record-high-temp-100-degrees/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3TsHVR_mP9Ca6HVpBG-0-pRlgxK7Obg-y2iBrmQwFfzvhxxlRH9L7NqIA_aem_AYYWW-aPn8R4LbVUwPIFqlrsur__ZH2TuE9syYEFRfpWtONlTlgu_IymZ719uhguw01BqUmymQIuoCwbGN-P0WBT)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2024, 07:37:59 AM

Yes, it was hot here yesterday. Rain moved in and it promptly dropped to 75.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2024, 08:10:48 AM

Weather in SD looks pretty good.  Duh.

We're staying at a pretty nice resort with two large pools and a number of hot tubs and a gym.  I'd be OK rarely leaving the place.  There is a Costco nearby.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2024, 08:29:23 AM

the weather in South Dakota has been good

rain for the crops, temps in the 70s

my windows have been open since I got home last night

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2024, 04:10:49 PM

In 1929, the USS Lexington was repurposed to provide emergency electrical power to Tacoma, Washington, during a severe drought that crippled the city’s hydroelectric power sources.

For about a month, the Lexington, using its turbo-electric propulsion system, generated electricity for the city.


(https://i.imgur.com/Lf7rqSJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2024, 04:12:33 PM

I have been reading some "optimistic" stories about fusion of late, folks implying it's "right around the corner".  I am more than dubious about that, but perhaps it's not way way off either.  Maybe by 2050 we MIGHT have a working fusion power plant.  That is on the optimistic side.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2024, 04:21:51 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2024, 04:10:49 PM

In 1929, the USS Lexington was repurposed to provide emergency electrical power to Tacoma, Washington, during a severe drought that crippled the city’s hydroelectric power sources.

For about a month, the Lexington, using its turbo-electric propulsion system, generated electricity for the city.

could be a use for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers and such

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 31, 2024, 05:23:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2024, 04:12:33 PM

I have been reading some "optimistic" stories about fusion of late, folks implying it's "right around the corner".  I am more than dubious about that, but perhaps it's not way way off either.  Maybe by 2050 we MIGHT have a working fusion power plant.  That is on the optimistic side.

HDDs killed tape storage about 3 decades ago. Except of course that magnetic tape shipped more exabytes of storage in 2023 than in any previous year. 

I've spent two decades reading about how NAND flash based SSDs are going to kill HDDs. I could spend an hour talking your ear off about how that isn't happening. 

I've spent the last decade reading about the next-gen storage media that are "right around the corner" and will kill NAND flash. None have made it out of the lab for large scale viability. 

So color me a little skeptical that we're going to have large-scale fusion energy any time in the foreseeable future (i.e. next 10 years). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2024, 05:51:29 PM

Maybe 2050 earliest.  2070 maybe.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2024, 10:17:10 PM

I may not be worried in 2070

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2024, 04:13:48 PM

Brilliant.

(https://i.imgur.com/z8j1YfB.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2024, 04:18:49 PM

Unlike. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 01, 2024, 05:42:54 PM

We have one of those. 




(https://www.thearmchairexplorer.com/utah/u-images/blm-sites/beaver-dam-joshua-tree-sign.webp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2024, 10:01:32 AM

scenic backway

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 02, 2024, 10:53:08 AM

Well yeah, it's a mountain dirt road that takes an alternate route to the old highway, which is a sparsely traveled road in and of itself. 



(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/i6K3vCpmACoH3ve2MDvjaoEgTOox7NKDW0IulgxMBhX2Ov6FV6cuQtLPv4mWIuF3uHJUj4Omluvv65ujiD8KrdSSjCZG8I3CRCwmnmK8qsT0DRKPQ-WtnyWhy-U9DTn8z33Hy4UuffCY-61ivBH0jv81)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2024, 11:05:20 AM

those scraggly trees don't look like they're real good at producing oxygen and sucking up CO2 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 02, 2024, 11:22:43 AM

Quite the isolated species, it would appear. 

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/08/Yucca_brevifolia_range_map.jpg/220px-Yucca_brevifolia_range_map.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2024, 11:55:58 AM

We have them in our botanical garden. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2024, 08:55:11 AM

Energy secretary calls for more nuclear power while celebrating $35 billion Georgia reactors


Granholm calls on U.S. to ‘at least triple our current nuclear capacity’

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2024, 09:06:48 AM

It's about time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2024, 09:18:38 AM

Words mean nothing without actions.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2024, 09:48:37 AM

Can't start without words. I'll take this as a positive. I'd rather hear about beefing up our Nuke capacity than hearing about Joshua Trees coming down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2024, 10:21:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2024, 09:18:38 AM

Words mean nothing without actions. 

true, but many times some words are thrown out there to test the waters and see how they are received

if the words get a positive response, then maybe some action 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2024, 10:53:43 AM

Wake me anything happens. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 08:07:57 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2024, 10:53:43 AM

Wake me anything happens.

Surely something happened today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 08:14:02 AM

You probably have to be a little nuts to want this job.

Hurricane Hunters fly directly into the eye of the storm (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/06/03/hurricane-hunters-flying-into-ian/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2024, 08:48:35 AM

like the guys that drive into tornados 

(https://i.imgur.com/pDF3FMK.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 02:53:31 PM

95 here today. Feels like 104, supposedly. It's hot. Pool time beckons.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2024, 03:02:17 PM

First warm day so far yesterday.   90 with humidity. 

I cranked up the AC

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 03:14:13 PM

Ours is set at 76. Never goes below that. When we leave for a trip, we take it to 78.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2024, 03:25:23 PM

Mine is at 78.
I thought strongly about dropping a couple degrees but I'm a tight wad 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2024, 03:58:14 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/WX7Hchd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2024, 03:58:39 PM

I realize that's downright frigid to @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 04, 2024, 04:00:29 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2024, 03:58:39 PM

I realize that's downright frigid to @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) :57:

Those daytime highs aren't bad but the overnight lows are getting dangerously close to the 50s! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2024, 04:09:51 PM

Finally warmed up a bit here to 69.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 04, 2024, 04:18:06 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 03:14:13 PM

Ours is set at 76. Never goes below that. When we leave for a trip, we take it to 78.

73.   69 for sleeping.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 04:18:29 PM

Haven't seen 69 since we were in Chicago a month ago.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 04:21:01 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 04, 2024, 04:18:06 PM

73.  69 for sleeping. 

Wow. That's keeping a cold house to me!

We kept it down when we first moved here, but when I had the AC, air handler and ducts replaced we no longer needed to do that. Electric bills are way down since we had all of that work done. Two feet of insulation in the attic and hurricane windows also help.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2024, 04:47:41 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 04, 2024, 04:18:06 PM

73.  69 for sleeping. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2024, 04:21:01 PM

Wow. That's keeping a cold house to me!

For us it's seasonal. We don't heat the house in the winter, so the nights can be a little chilly, since we always leave the bedroom window at the very least cracked open a bit. 

In the summer, we tend to keep the AC up in the 78 range just due to cost. While sleeping, that's barely tolerable to me. A lot of nights I'll sleep on top of the covers. 

But hey, you want to talk about cold? At the fraternity house in college, we had what we called a "cold air dorm". Our rooms in the house were for studying / hanging out, and we had a big bunk room on each of the living floors. It was call "cold air" because we would leave several windows open, even in the middle of winter. I think the idea was that it'd be too cold for germs lol. But it would absolutely get down into the 30s in there in the winter. That was a cold house to sleep in :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2024, 08:36:33 PM

my neighbor's AC unit runs a LOT

gotta be like a meat locker in his house

costs him a few bucks more a month, but that's his priority

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 10:13:43 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2024, 04:47:41 PM

For us it's seasonal. We don't heat the house in the winter, so the nights can be a little chilly, since we always leave the bedroom window at the very least cracked open a bit.

In the summer, we tend to keep the AC up in the 78 range just due to cost. While sleeping, that's barely tolerable to me. A lot of nights I'll sleep on top of the covers.

But hey, you want to talk about cold? At the fraternity house in college, we had what we called a "cold air dorm". Our rooms in the house were for studying / hanging out, and we had a big bunk room on each of the living floors. It was call "cold air" because we would leave several windows open, even in the middle of winter. I think the idea was that it'd be too cold for germs lol. But it would absolutely get down into the 30s in there in the winter. That was a cold house to sleep in :57:

We rarely need the heat in the "winter" here. A couple of mornings at wake up, to take the edge off, but that's really about it.

Probably ran it 10 times since we've been here. Heat costs about 5X more than AC.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 05, 2024, 10:27:19 AM

You'd have a hard time running the AC 76-78 deg F here due to the humidity.  Even if it's showing 76 deg, it will be humid because it's just not running enough hours to get the humidity out.  I think we keep ours at maybe 76 deg on really hot days, as long as it runs damn near continuously, and on less hot days we bring it down to 74-75.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 10:50:47 AM

Quote from: Gigem on June 05, 2024, 10:27:19 AM

You'd have a hard time running the AC 76-78 deg F here due to the humidity.  Even if it's showing 76 deg, it will be humid because it's just not running enough hours to get the humidity out.  I think we keep ours at maybe 76 deg on really hot days, as long as it runs damn near continuously, and on less hot days we bring it down to 74-75. 

It's humid here, trust me. Dew point right now is at 74.

And yeah, with it set at 76 it runs almost constantly.

Inside humidity here at our place is normally about 45-50 percent. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 11:14:22 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/climate/12-months-record-heat-un-speech/index.html


More whining.   Still no plan.   At all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2024, 11:18:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 11:14:22 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/climate/12-months-record-heat-un-speech/index.html


More whining.  Still no plan.  At all.

There's a plan. It's quite simple, actually. It's just not one anyone will actually do, or quite frankly SHOULD do, so it's moot. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 11:28:55 AM

I don’t see a plan as I think of plans. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2024, 11:34:09 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 11:28:55 AM

I don’t see a plan as I think of plans.

The plan is simple. Simply stop burning carbon for let's say everything except food production and distribution. 

I mean, the effects of the plan would be atrocious. Our modern world economy would grind to a halt. Billions would be impoverished. It would be hell. 

But it would stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere. It would be an effective plan.

-------------

I didn't say it was a good plan BTW :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 12:00:01 PM

I have never seen that proposal. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2024, 12:23:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 12:00:01 PM

I have never seen that proposal.

That's because nobody in power would ever say that out loud. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 12:51:11 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2024, 12:23:50 PM

That's because nobody in power would ever say that out loud.

I don't know about that. Some in power have alluded to it, on the way to the airport in their Escalades, to be taken for a ride on their private jets to some important climate meeting during which nothing happens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 01:05:34 PM

I don’t think anyone with any authority has voiced any plan beyond some vague notional nonsensical stuff. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on June 05, 2024, 01:08:02 PM

There have been so, so many plans, just like the ones to solve the national budget or have peace in the Middle East.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 01:18:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 01:05:34 PM

I don’t think anyone with any authority has voiced any plan beyond some vague notional nonsensical stuff.

Correct.

The plan should be Nuke. End of story.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 01:30:52 PM

I've learned a lot about these things since living here.

Atlantic hurricane season off to slowest start in a decade | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-season-slowest-start-2014)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 01:52:30 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on June 05, 2024, 01:08:02 PM

There have been so, so many plans, just like the ones to solve the national budget or have peace in the Middle East.

I’ve never seen a real plan. Just notional hand waving. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 02:11:44 PM

A year of record global heat has pushed Earth closer to dangerous threshold (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-year-of-record-global-heat-has-pushed-earth-closer-to-dangerous-threshold/ar-BB1nGpmL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=c1cc8ad393624d359d0bea1f8c0aa9d5&ei=45)

The plan:

Guterres used the data to stress the urgency of climate action ahead of a June meeting in Italy of the Group of Seven — the world’s wealthiest democracies — where matters of war and global trade are expected to take center stage.

“We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” Guterres said. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 02:14:35 PM

Yeah and we need world peace and to end hunger and homelessness.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 02:45:01 PM

Lots of emissions in Ukraine and Gaza. But yeah, let's fund it!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2024, 04:58:55 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2024, 02:11:44 PM

A year of record global heat has pushed Earth closer to dangerous threshold (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-year-of-record-global-heat-has-pushed-earth-closer-to-dangerous-threshold/ar-BB1nGpmL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=c1cc8ad393624d359d0bea1f8c0aa9d5&ei=45)

The plan:

 Guterres said. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.”

there's no plan to build an exit ramp

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2024, 06:31:58 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/05/un-world-to-briefly-hit-1point5-degree-warming-threshold-in-next-5-years.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2024, 09:42:50 PM

great story, let's put together a plan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 06, 2024, 07:30:31 AM

Plan.

(https://i.imgur.com/pCAPzOo.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 06, 2024, 10:16:02 AM

Yesterday was really hot. I could feel it more than ever.

Now I know why. The high temp recorded yesterday in Punta Gorda was 101. 

Not the feels-like - the actual temp.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2024, 10:36:41 AM

only a one day heat wave here a few days ago

upper 70s expected Friday-Monday with over night lows in the 50s

it's not heaven, it's Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 06, 2024, 10:48:13 AM

That's January weather here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 06, 2024, 01:21:46 PM

Well I'll take that January weather compared to what comes your way starting the end of the month. Maybe already there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 06, 2024, 01:44:43 PM

Maps show how "Tornado Alley" has shifted in the U.S. (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/maps-show-how-tornado-alley-has-shifted-in-the-u-s/ar-BB1nL8iH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=06052df693b14cea83b54bba99c559f7&ei=64)

Interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2024, 02:10:24 PM

well, western Nebraska and the entire state of Iowa green in both

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 06, 2024, 02:41:10 PM

Austin's relative danger level has actually decreased from dark green to light green.  HOORAY FOR GLOBAL WARMING!!!

(https://i.imgur.com/rFt72mC.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/V1KSf70.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 06, 2024, 03:13:32 PM

It's getting too hot for me to work out without sweating a ton, but it's still cool enough that I can't justify closing the house and using AC. 

Gonna have to start getting these workouts in earlier in the mornings. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2024, 08:12:35 PM

Indonesia holds the world’s biggest nickel reserves and undercuts foreign competitors on price in part because of subsidized coal used to generate electricity for the nickel refining process. The president-elect's predecessor, who holds the presidency until October, banned exports of raw nickel ore to promote domestic value addition in refining.

It appears that Subianto wants to continue building up the battery supply chain and eventually make his archipelago into a hub of battery and electric vehicle production. The government has announced tax incentives designed to boost domestic EV production and sales. It aims to produce 600,000 EVs and have 140 gigawatt-hours of annual battery production capacity by 2030. The nation has pitched Tesla CEO Elon Musk about a battery plant.

But those ostensibly climate-friendly ambitions come embedded with an inherent contradiction—the more batteries and EVs Indonesia produces the more climate-warming coal it burns.

Indonesian nickel is used to make stainless steel. But battery-grade nickel takes more refining, which means more power generation is needed.

The International Energy Agency expects surging demand for nickel and development of coal-fired power plants to boost Indonesia's coal consumption from 228 million tons in 2023 to 284 million tons in 2026.

"I think that as Indonesia takes a larger share of the nickel market, the country’s coal usage will likely increase proportionately, as most of the country’s nickel refining industry is run on coal-fired power generation," John Berman, CEO of natural resources investment management firm Berman Capital Group.

China in Charge

For now, China is by far the largest investor in Indonesia's nickel industry, although companies from other nations are making inroads. Hyundai Motor Group has an EV factory there and has teamed up with South Korea's LG Energy Solution on a battery cell plant. General Motors Co is involved with a joint venture there, and Ford Motor Co. has teamed up with PT Vale Indonesia and China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt on a nickel processing facility.

If more Western companies who hold stricter environmental and labor standards than China end up investing in Indonesia and are able to force reforms, Indonesian nickel products could get more expensive, allowing ex-China nickel miners with higher costs of production to be more competitive. The same is true if governments put tariffs on Indonesian nickel exports, as Canada and other Western countries are considering.

"A carbon tax could be a possibility if there were emissions standards in place for the production process, which, in the case of nickel processing, still largely depends on coal," Syarif said.

"However, with Chinese manufacturers being the primary consumers, the tax would likely apply to the finished products coming from China," he added. "The challenge lies in how to effectively track the carbon footprint of these processed commodities since there’s currently no adequate system for this tracking."

At some point, North American and European companies should reject Indonesian nickel that is produced in a way that destroys rainforest, strips soil and is refined with coal-fired power, Greg Beischer, CEO of nickel miner Alaska Energy Metals Corp.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2024, 08:38:58 PM

GRAND ISLAND, Neb. (KSNB) - The City of Grand Island announced Wednesday that they broke ground on a new solar farm that should be able to power around 10,000 houses in the community.

The farm is said to house 21,600 panels, making it the second largest solar farm in the state of Nebraska.

The farm on the north eastern side of town will cost $14.2 million, but around $4 million is being supplied by the Inflation Reduction Act.

The farm is expected to provide more capacity and extra overflow power during the summer season, according to Assistant Utilities Director Lynn Mayhew. He also added that the cost will be the same as the city’s current method of power generation by coal.


“What this means is that we’ll get renewable energy and the production will actually cost about the same as it does for our coal production,” Mayhew said. “It has about the same cost as energy produced on our coal plant.”

The project is slated to be complete by November of 2024, and it should go into operation before the end of the year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 06, 2024, 09:24:53 PM

112 today

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 06, 2024, 11:48:13 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 06, 2024, 09:24:53 PM

112 today

Yep. 106 when I was there last weekend. Sorry you live in Satan's asshole. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2024, 06:56:59 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 06, 2024, 08:12:35 PM

Indonesia holds the world’s biggest nickel reserves and undercuts foreign competitors on price in part because of subsidized coal used to generate electricity for the nickel refining process. The president-elect's predecessor, who holds the presidency until October, banned exports of raw nickel ore to promote domestic value addition in refining.

It appears that Subianto wants to continue building up the battery supply chain and eventually make his archipelago into a hub of battery and electric vehicle production. The government has announced tax incentives designed to boost domestic EV production and sales. It aims to produce 600,000 EVs and have 140 gigawatt-hours of annual battery production capacity by 2030. The nation has pitched Tesla CEO Elon Musk about a battery plant.

But those ostensibly climate-friendly ambitions come embedded with an inherent contradiction—the more batteries and EVs Indonesia produces the more climate-warming coal it burns.

Indonesian nickel is used to make stainless steel. But battery-grade nickel takes more refining, which means more power generation is needed.

The International Energy Agency expects surging demand for nickel and development of coal-fired power plants to boost Indonesia's coal consumption from 228 million tons in 2023 to 284 million tons in 2026.

"I think that as Indonesia takes a larger share of the nickel market, the country’s coal usage will likely increase proportionately, as most of the country’s nickel refining industry is run on coal-fired power generation," John Berman, CEO of natural resources investment management firm Berman Capital Group.

China in Charge

For now, China is by far the largest investor in Indonesia's nickel industry, although companies from other nations are making inroads. Hyundai Motor Group has an EV factory there and has teamed up with South Korea's LG Energy Solution on a battery cell plant. General Motors Co is involved with a joint venture there, and Ford Motor Co. has teamed up with PT Vale Indonesia and China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt on a nickel processing facility.

If more Western companies who hold stricter environmental and labor standards than China end up investing in Indonesia and are able to force reforms, Indonesian nickel products could get more expensive, allowing ex-China nickel miners with higher costs of production to be more competitive. The same is true if governments put tariffs on Indonesian nickel exports, as Canada and other Western countries are considering.

"A carbon tax could be a possibility if there were emissions standards in place for the production process, which, in the case of nickel processing, still largely depends on coal," Syarif said.

"However, with Chinese manufacturers being the primary consumers, the tax would likely apply to the finished products coming from China," he added. "The challenge lies in how to effectively track the carbon footprint of these processed commodities since there’s currently no adequate system for this tracking."

At some point, North American and European companies should reject Indonesian nickel that is produced in a way that destroys rainforest, strips soil and is refined with coal-fired power, Greg Beischer, CEO of nickel miner Alaska Energy Metals Corp.

Cluster f*ck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2024, 08:41:29 AM

Florida braces for tropical downpours in wake of record-breaking heat | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/florida-heat-forecast-rain-flooding)

We really need rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2024, 09:03:07 AM

A "plan", to me, would comprise:

We're going to do X, Y, and Z

By this date.

The cost will be about $x zillions.

The benefit will be X°F less global warming.


What we are seeing, and will see, is:

We're spending $37 billion a year on "stuff".

Ain't it grand?

And by the way, this is not remotely nearly enough to limit climate change.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 07, 2024, 09:13:01 AM

By this date.

The cost will be about $x zillions.
________________________________

then they would proceed to be WAY behind schedule and WAY over budget

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2024, 09:25:08 AM

Sure, that's understood, in general, but at least it would be the outline of a PLAN, as I think of the term.

Reality of course is that we could spend however many trillions and make only a very very slight dent in climate change.

This thing is going to happen, it could be bad, it might even be worse than projected, or it might be less.  We simply don't know, but we're going to find out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2024, 09:54:44 AM

Very interesting development here.

Estimates of lithium mass yields from produced water sourced from the Devonian-aged Marcellus Shale | Scientific Reports (nature.com) (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58887-x)

Abstract

Decarbonatization initiatives have rapidly increased the demand for lithium. This study uses public waste compliance reports and Monte Carlo approaches to estimate total lithium mass yields from produced water (PW) sourced from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania (PA). Statewide, Marcellus Shale PW has substantial extractable lithium, however, concentrations, production volumes and extraction efficiencies vary between the northeast and southwest operating zones. Annual estimates suggest statewide lithium mass yields of approximately 1160 (95% CI 1140–1180) metric tons (mt) per year. Production decline curve analysis on PW volumes reveal cumulative volumetric disparities between the northeast (median = 2.89 X 10⁷ L/10-year) and southwest (median = 5.56 × 10⁷ L/10-year) regions of the state, influencing lithium yield estimates of individual wells in southwest [2.90 (95% CI 2.80–2.99) mt/10-year] and northeast [1.96 (CI 1.86–2.07) mt/10-year] PA. Moreover, Mg/Li mass ratios vary regionally, where NE PA are low Mg/Li fluids, having a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 5.39 (IQR, 2.66–7.26) and SW PA PW is higher with a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 17.8 (IQR, 14.3–20.7). These estimates indicate substantial lithium yields from Marcellus PW, though regional variability in chemistry and production may impact recovery efficiencies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 08, 2024, 11:56:20 AM

How to deal with climate activists blocking traffic

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aFeWcCT3rRY?feature=share

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2024, 05:05:44 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on June 08, 2024, 11:56:20 AM

How to deal with climate activists blocking traffic

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aFeWcCT3rRY?feature=share

I absolutely hate when people take advantage of the politeness of others.  

"I'm going to sit here because you won't run me over"

"IF"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2024, 04:03:38 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/W1m7eJH.jpeg)

Tropical moisture surging into Florida means rainy week ahead | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tropical-moisture-surging-florida-means-rainy-week)

Gonna get really wet around here if this rings true.

12-18" in our area. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 10, 2024, 04:05:08 PM

well, you said you needed rain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2024, 09:11:17 AM

We do. It's raining.

I have the pump ready for the pool when it's time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2024, 09:15:00 AM

Any tropical anythings out in the Atlantic yet?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2024, 09:33:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2024, 09:15:00 AM

Any tropical anythings out in the Atlantic yet?

Maybe.

(https://i.imgur.com/xD4Bnqv.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2024, 01:27:21 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/2IWGv5I.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2024, 01:29:02 PM

This all-day washout has me thinking about Chicago, and that's not good.

Gonna be a depressing stretch of days here. Yep, we need the rain. How about just not at one time, next time, please?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2024, 01:30:57 PM

We have 97°F forecast for Saturday, low 90s the rest of the days around that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2024, 02:19:09 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2024, 01:29:02 PM

This all-day washout has me thinking about Chicago, and that's not good.

Gonna be a depressing stretch of days here. Yep, we need the rain. How about just not at one time, next time, please?

I know how you feel.  Started your ark yet?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2024, 02:27:16 PM

Wish y'all could send some this way.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2024, 02:49:30 PM

We're not seeing as much as was predicted. Some areas are getting pounded. We probably have 2" so far. Need about 8 more to get us out of drought. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2024, 02:57:16 PM

Quote from: utee94 on June 11, 2024, 02:27:16 PM

Wish y'all could send some this way.

Just be sure to jump over Houston

Were set for a while

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2024, 05:35:58 PM

Most of the heavy rain is going to the South from here. We're just getting a long soaker for the next 4/5 days.

Interactive Radar - WINK News (https://winknews.com/interactive-radar/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2024, 10:38:58 PM

KEMMERER, Wyo., June 10, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Bechtel celebrates the official groundbreaking of the Natrium Demonstration Project.

Bechtel is TerraPower's engineering, procurement, and construction partner on this first-of-a-kind project in Kemmerer, Wyoming. The project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program.

Natrium is an advanced nuclear reactor that uses a sodium-based technology to cool the reactor instead of water. This unique technology developed by TerraPower can provide clean, baseload operation at 345 megawatts with the capability to flex as high as 500 megawatts, generating enough energy to power 400,000 homes.

Reflecting on the significance of today's milestone, Craig Albert, Bechtel President and COO, shared the following:

"The Natrium reactor's innovative design will launch a new approach to nuclear plant construction that is designed to be safer, cleaner, faster, and more efficient than many energy source alternatives."

"Working together, the combination of advanced technology and streamlined constructability has the potential to diversify the U.S. power generation industry. The option of deploying smaller advanced nuclear plants that can work in concert with other clean energy sources will help speed our progress toward net-zero emissions."

Albert commended TerraPower on their approach and the significance of our partnership:

"TerraPower extended their visionary approach to the building of the plant itself. Their involvement of Bechtel from the very beginning means the entire project lifecycle, including construction, has been optimized at every stage, making the entire process cost-effective, fast, and repeatable."

"Natrium will be the first nuclear project where the execution of those plans will benefit from Bechtel's suite of digital tools and systems, which have been proven to deliver exceptional results on other large energy facilities."

Craig Albert's complete comments are available in a post on www.bechtel.com.

As the nexus of TerraPower and GE Hitachi technology, the Natrium design represents a leap forward in clean, sustainable power generation. The project will bring a commercial, advanced nuclear reactor online that will deliver carbon-free, reliable power to the electrical grid and provide jobs in Wyoming for decades to come.

For 70 years, Bechtel has helped customers deliver clean energy through nuclear. In that time, Bechtel has designed, built, or provided construction services on 150 nuclear plants worldwide, bringing more than 76,000 megawatts of new nuclear generation capacity to the world. Bechtel is proud to bring this trusted expertise to the Natrium Demonstration Project.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2024, 10:51:06 PM

I see the word "demonstration" and think, OK, yeah.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2024, 11:01:43 PM

well, if the demonstration goes well...........

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2024, 08:04:45 AM

Yeah, hopefully so.  They don't have a license for the nuclear part yet.  They are starting with the nonnuclear items.

It sounds like a good idea to take over a coal plant that already has steam turbines and simple replace the heat source with nuclear.  Sodium reactors have been used in military ships and boats before.

Natrium is the latin word for sodium.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2024, 10:34:21 AM

OPEC may soon lose its sway over global oil prices, IEA says (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/opec-may-soon-lose-its-sway-over-global-oil-prices-iea-says/ar-BB1o5Unf?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=22422e80a91947129e42ef5aaa158d57&ei=22)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2024, 10:40:31 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2024, 10:51:06 PM

I see the word "demonstration" and think, OK, yeah. 

If anyone can do this, it's Bechtel. They are a powerhouse company.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2024, 10:42:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2024, 10:34:21 AM

OPEC may soon lose its sway over global oil prices, IEA says (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/opec-may-soon-lose-its-sway-over-global-oil-prices-iea-says/ar-BB1o5Unf?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=22422e80a91947129e42ef5aaa158d57&ei=22)

Yeah, peak oil USAGE may happen in 2030.  I could buy that, I think.  And of course, they could be off a decade too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2024, 11:51:07 AM

Gonna have to keep an eye on the Southern Gulf now.

(https://i.imgur.com/zvWrOAt.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 12, 2024, 12:48:10 PM

The one in the southern Gulf doesnt look like much right now

Id be surprised if it turns into a threat

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2024, 12:52:09 PM

Yep, just putting it out there. No idea where it could go at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 12, 2024, 12:55:19 PM

Would love to see it form up and move north just enough to become a large rain event in west and central Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2024, 01:18:26 PM

Florida weather: Record intense rain falls on Sarasota as southern parts of state flood | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/11/weather/florida-flooding-hurricane-season-climate/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2024, 08:15:33 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/3yPZBfK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2024, 08:30:28 AM

Quote from: utee94 on June 12, 2024, 12:55:19 PM

Would love to see it form up and move north just enough to become a large rain event in west and central Texas.

(https://i.imgur.com/7Q9r9tS.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/hVRR1qh.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2024, 02:04:38 PM

No "June Gloom" here today. Nice and sunny by 8 AM, and should have a high in the mid-upper 70s. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2024, 02:05:58 PM

Starting to feel like summer here, sunny and 87°F.  I was agonna run some, but not now.  Need to get out earlier.  It's still OK in the shade.

The Internet site says it's 90°F with 37% humidity, which is, well, tolerable, in the shade, with a breeze.

Folks living here before Carrier were tough souls.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on June 13, 2024, 02:14:04 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2024, 02:04:38 PM

No "June Gloom" here today. Nice and sunny by 8 AM, and should have a high in the mid-upper 70s.

Damn 88 here right now after some nice breezy sunny yet cool days last week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2024, 02:25:27 PM

Still raining here. About 10-11" so far. My pool is topped off and my pump failed. That was when we were at 7" total, this morning when I woke up.

New pump should be here any minute. Can't use the actual pool filter pump to evacuate water as it voids the warrantee, so we have to use a submersible pump and hose. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 13, 2024, 06:33:21 PM

88 and 38% humidity here in Lincoln

not a bad day on the golf course

the beer cart girls were working hard

(https://i.imgur.com/hmC5ZAt.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2024, 07:58:24 AM

OPEC calls for more fossil fuel investment, dismisses peak oil demand (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/opec-calls-for-more-fossil-fuel-investment-dismisses-peak-oil-demand.html)

A rather massive difference in opinion about future oil demand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 14, 2024, 10:32:55 AM

Westinghouse has opened a new engineering hub in Kitchener which aims to support both Canadian-based and international nuclear power projects.

The grand opening and ribbon cutting of the new, 1,200-square-metre facility on Sportsworld Crossing Drive on Tuesday was attended by Mayor Berry Vrbanovic, Ontario's Minister of Economic Development Vic Fedeli, and a number of Westinghouse executives.

The company says 50 engineers will work on designing the future of nuclear reactors, including the highly anticipated eVinci microreactors that could prove invaluable to some rural and Indigenous communities.

Westinghouse intends to hire 100 more engineers for this facility by the end of next year — 90 per cent of which are expected to be new graduates.

Kitchener's proximity to post-secondary schools, like the University of Waterloo — Canada's largest engineering school — was a big factor in the decision to make Kitchener their fifth engineering hub, Westinghouse CEO Patrick Fragman said in an interview with CBC Kitchener-Waterloo.

"We are in the knowledge-based business," Fragman said. "People who have the right mindset and the right skills that we can grow and develop in the nuclear industry, for us, is number one."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 14, 2024, 10:59:50 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/swRQUwv.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2024, 11:11:36 AM

Westinghouse is a unique story. The man was brilliant. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2024, 08:52:19 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/wwQVOH0.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2024, 08:59:13 AM

Would be crazy if Florida got hit on both coasts simultaneously... good luck y'all!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2024, 09:00:42 AM

Quote from: utee94 on June 17, 2024, 08:59:13 AM

Would be crazy if Florida got hit on both coasts simultaneously... good luck y'all!

The one in red is gonna move Northwest into Texas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2024, 09:04:40 AM

What is the Sahara dust situation now?  That seems to be a factor poorly considered in the models?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2024, 09:07:46 AM

We don't have much Saharan dust at this time. Saharan dust is a hurricane killer. Very effective and has saved us a few times here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 17, 2024, 12:56:48 PM

Houston area (I'm SE) to get 5-10 inches of rain this week.  Fishing been messed up all year due to high Brazos, will be messed up a bit longer.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2024, 01:08:09 PM

And we still can't buy a thimble full of water west of I35.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2024, 09:00:42 AM

The one in red is gonna move Northwest into Texas.

Hope it stays a nice, rainy depression and moves straight up into Central Texas.

But I want that to happen, so there's zero chance it will happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2024, 03:07:04 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2024, 09:00:42 AM

The one in red is gonna move Northwest into Texas.

The latest forcast that I saw shows it catching a little of South Texas but hitting mostly in Mexico

for utee's sake I hope this proves incorrect

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2024, 04:42:48 PM

WPC forecast looks promising for Austin, we're in the middle of the brown "7 inches over the next 7 days" area.  But, I'll believe it when I see it.

(https://i.imgur.com/u33m3ty.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 17, 2024, 05:06:09 PM

Nice and clear here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2024, 07:40:08 AM

Senate poised to send bill boosting nuclear power to Biden’s desk (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4726452-senate-nuclear-power-energy-bill/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 10:47:07 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/VykjRIy.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 18, 2024, 11:01:11 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 10:47:07 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/VykjRIy.png)

so I guess What I reported earlier was right

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 11:03:50 AM

Yes sir.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2024, 12:16:31 PM

Heat wave 2024 live updates: About 150 million people expected to experience temps above 90 F (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/live-blog/heat-wave-live-updates-rcna157615)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2024, 12:23:36 PM

On the flipside, we have yet to hit 100 this summer which is rare this far into June.

And the long range forecast also has zero 100 degree days predicted, all the way to July 2nd, which is extremely rare for us.

Overall it's been a fairly mild spring and summer so far.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2024, 12:25:02 PM

Often, if it's unseasonably hot in one place, the reverse is true in another.

I see they expect snow in Montana etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 12:25:09 PM

Just had the AC guy here.

Gonna spend $5K on Thursday, forcing me to put off my planned lightning protection project.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2024, 12:31:32 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 12:25:09 PM

Just had the AC guy here.

Gonna spend $5K on Thursday, forcing me to put off my planned lightning protection project.

Eh, what's the worst that could happen, with hurricane season impending...?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2024, 12:35:04 PM

After my house in Cincy was hit by lightning TWICE (the chimney, did a remarkable amount of damage), I had two estimates on lightning rods.  It was several thousands of dollars.  I didn't go for it.

One guy told me he was doing a major job putting lightning rods in the TREES in the yard of this fellow, he told me it made no sense to him either and the guy had a large lot with a lot of trees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 01:01:14 PM

Quote from: utee94 on June 18, 2024, 12:31:32 PM

Eh, what's the worst that could happen, with hurricane season impending...?

My house gets hit, burns and the insurance covers it, I guess.

Cannot live without AC down here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2024, 01:03:37 PM

My house didn't burn, the second time in particular it had about three feet of chimney blown off into the backyard, and nearly every electronic gizmo was shot, including the garage door opener on the other end of the house, microwave, stereo, all the smoke alarms went off and had to be replaced, TV of course, and my computer which was turned on at the time and 20 feet from the chimney was not blown up.

My insurance guy could hardly believe it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 01:06:45 PM

I'm definitely doing whole-house surge protection soon. That comes in two weeks, or so I'm told.

My whole office is protected by a battery backup/surge protector so I'm good there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2024, 01:10:58 PM

I was told by several folks that no surge protector ever made will deter lightning from going wherever it wants.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2024, 01:15:16 PM

Yep, same here. But it's worth it to me. We get lots of non-lightning surges here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2024, 01:31:20 PM

Quote

I was told by several folks that no surge protector ever made will deter lightning from going wherever it wants.

Think of it this way-- the massive amount of voltage required to create an arc across the sky and through the giant insulator that is the earth's atmosphere, from a stormcloud distance of at least 0.6 miles high into the sky and potentially as high up as 1.2-1.5 miles away, isn't really going to be affected by having to cross a distance of a few millimeters within a surge protection device.  Also, rubber-soled shoes and car tires won't make a bit of difference, either.

Quote

Yep, same here. But it's worth it to me. We get lots of non-lightning surges here.

But yeah, this for sure.  Your own power company's power isn't necessarily always all that clean, and then other things can happen on the lines to your house, that could bring in harmful or uneven power to your home distribution.  It's certainly wise to protect your sensitive and/or expensive equipment from non-nature-related surges.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2024, 01:34:19 PM

Yeah, both strikes hit my chimney, which was pretty much nothing but brick.  It was wet brick.   There was one chunk I could barely lift about 40 feet from the chimney.

As I understand them, lighning rods don't conduct lightning, they just neutralize the potential before it builds up high enough to arc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2024, 06:35:32 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/geoengineering-study-shipping-regulation-made-climate-change-worse.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2024, 07:05:07 AM

Nice job.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2024, 08:12:23 AM

It is a welcome prospect for Finland to have shifted to ammonia as a substitute for hydrogen as it moves closer to adoption of cleaner energy sources. They mention that their approach solves several problems related to hydrogen, and these are storage, transportation, and hydrogen’s explosive nature.

Hydrogen is the most well-known ingredient of ammonia and the latter, primarily associated with fertilizers, has now evolved itself as a feasible option for overcoming the hurdles that come along the way with use of hydrogen. The key advantages of using ammonia as a hydrogen carrier include:

High Density: Indeed, ammonia has a higher hydrogen density as compared to that of the gaseous hydrogen; thereby making ammonia to be much more convenient to store and transport as a source of hydrogen. This also allows for the storage and transportation of more hydrogen in a given smaller volume.
Existing Infrastructure Utilisation: One of the major strengths can be mentioned here is the ability to utilize the current infrastructure used in ammonia production and distribution. Thus, transition from fossil fuels is easier than existing ammonia production and distribution infrastructure.
Global Accessibility: Ammonia is one of the most widely traded chemical products in the global market thus the market channels for this chemical are well developed. As such it makes it a light carrier for hydrogen to enhance its international mobility for trade and cooperation.
New fuel to revolutionize the roads and put an end to hydrogen: this brand is producing it
Hydrogen solutions via ammonia have been a notable area of advancement for the Finish economy. For example, Wärtsilä an international engineering company from Finland has introduced the first 4-stroke ammonia engine.

This is regarded as the greatest breakthrough of change in making the energy generation process much more environmentally friendly since ammonia may be used as a fuel source for heavy-duty engines. Moreover, there are currently ongoing projects for the hydrogen economy in Finland also such as green ammonia.

For example, Flexens Oy Ab and KIP Infra Oy have produced a whitepaper for green hydrogen and ammonia production at Kokkola Industrial Park with an electrolyzer size of 300MW. It is similar to a project from Malaysia to develop green ammonia, but only for vessels.

https://www.ecoticias.com/en/ammonia-fuel-hydrogen-engine/3167/ (https://www.ecoticias.com/en/ammonia-fuel-hydrogen-engine/3167/)
The use of ammonia as a hydrogen carrier holds immense potential for various applications:

Hydrogen-Powered Transportation: Ammonia also could be used as a fuel for hydrogen transportation systems hence the potential to transform the transport industry. Fuel cells can be used to convert ammonia back into electric energy, making it easy to use the fuel in different types of transport.
Energy Density and Storage: Ammonia fire has even more energy density than hydrogen fire aside from the fact that the energy density of ammonia is higher than energy density of pure hydrogen gas. This implies that in the same volume, there is the potential to store more energy in the case of gases.
Versatile Applications: Ammonia is used in energy storage and transportation only to some extent but is also employed in other industries. Due to its properties, it is used largely in agriculture for application as fertilizer and in refrigeration.
You don’t see an ammonia engine like this every day, in fact, until now they were only for ships. In any case, it is a revolution that has not taken long to spread around the world, as demonstrated by the Malaysian project to generate it (in an even “greener” version). What do you think of this proposal to find something better than hydrogen and, of course, EVs?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2024, 08:17:24 AM

Ammonia has been in the discussion for decades now, the article above doesn't go into the negatives of it, nor have I seem negatives mentioned.  I suspect some exist, perhaps cost of the Haber process at a large scale?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2024, 09:15:36 AM

Solar is growing faster than any energy source as clean power for data centers (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/solar-is-growing-faster-than-any-energy-source-as-clean-power-for-data-centers.html)

To be sure, solar remains a small portion of total electricity generation in the U.S., standing at just 3.9% of the nation’s power mix in 2023 compared to the 43% share held by natural gas, according to the Energy Information Administration (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=8), the statistical unit within the Department of Energy.
And renewables face substantial logistical challenges in connecting to an aging power grid that is not prepared for the level of new demand the U.S. is facing after a long period of little growth.
But leaders in the clean energy industry argue that the sector is reaching a turning point, particularly as Big Tech firms such as Amazon (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AMZN/) and Microsoft (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MSFT/) seek clean energy to power data centers that are the backbone of the Internet and artificial intelligence applications. The economic argument for renewables has also strengthened, they say, as the price of solar modules and batteries has fallen.
“They are cheaper, they are clean and quite frankly easier to site, so the future is going to be renewable energy,” said Andrés Gluski, CEO of AES Corporation (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AES/), a power company that has signed large power agreements with the likes of Alphabet’s Google (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aes-announces-first-of-its-kind-agreement-to-supply-247-carbon-free-energy-for-google-data-centers-in-virginia-301282750.html) unit and Amazon (https://s202.q4cdn.com/986265382/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/05-02-24-Q1-2024-Press-Release_FINAL.pdf). AES operates both renewable and gas-powered plants (https://www.aes.com/sites/aes.com/files/2024-05/05-07-24 Q1 2024 Fact Sheet_FINAL.pdf).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2024, 10:19:05 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2024, 06:35:32 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/geoengineering-study-shipping-regulation-made-climate-change-worse.html

As I've said before, give this a read: https://www.amazon.com/Termination-Shock-Novel-Neal-Stephenson-ebook/dp/B08WLWC6GZ/

It's a novel about geoengineering as a bandaid for climate change, and sulphur dioxide plays a key role in the plot. 

I think you'd like it. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2024, 10:42:24 AM

Quote

Pioneering developers started [color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]inaugurating battery plants in 2021 (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/broad-reach-power-starts-building-biggest-batteries-in-texas)[/url], making use of the state’s cheap and abundant land and rapid permitting, and the power market’s low barriers to entry. The first cohort of batteries made a lot of money for their owners, companies like Broad Reach Power, Eolian, Jupiter Power, and Plus Power. These original venturers doubled down with bigger, longer-lasting storage projects, and a wave of followers charged in close behind.[/font][/size][/color]

That brings us to today. Texas rolled into 2024 with some 5.1 gigawatts of energy storage online, second only to [color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]mighty California (https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/batteries/batteries-are-taking-on-gas-plants-to-power-californias-nights)[/url]. But the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) [color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]predicts[/color] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61424) Texas will complete another [color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]6.4 gigawatts this year[/color] (https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/energy-storage/texas-will-add-more-grid-batteries-than-any-other-state-in-2024), outstripping California’s 5.2 gigawatts of new construction. ERCOT expects to end the year with approximately 11 gigawatts online. Analyst firm BloombergNEF, by contrast, predicts Texas will build a more modest 4.3 gigawatts, somewhat less than the company’s expectation for California’s new battery construction. But even that more modest forecast would nearly double Texas’ existing battery fleet.[/font][/size][/color]

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/energy-storage/how-texas-became-the-hottest-battery-market-in-the-country-energy-storage

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2024, 10:43:31 AM

Eh, formatting got all messed up.  Anyway, Texas and California both building lots of new battery storage to help better utilize all of that great wind and solar energy they generate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 19, 2024, 10:59:53 AM

🎵: "Sometimes the snow falls down in June"

https://twitter.com/HoldinMoss/status/1802913248527765693

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on June 19, 2024, 11:25:33 AM

Rain hammering here in Southern Brazoria County.  Coastal Flooding going on at Surfside and Matagorda county beaches (and other beaches south of here).  Hopefully some makes it to Cen Tex.  I need Canyon Lake full, nothing in this world better than floating down the Guadalupe at about 125-200 CFM in a big raft and super cold beer.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2024, 12:44:38 PM

We have our first named storm of the season.

Tropical Storm Alberto forms in the Gulf Coast (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/06/19/tropical-storm-alberto-forms/)

(https://i.imgur.com/y9s6Bzi.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2024, 12:46:21 PM

Quote from: Gigem on June 19, 2024, 11:25:33 AM

Rain hammering here in Southern Brazoria County.  Coastal Flooding going on at Surfside and Matagorda county beaches (and other beaches south of here).  Hopefully some makes it to Cen Tex.  I need Canyon Lake full, nothing in this world better than floating down the Guadalupe at about 125-200 CFM in a big raft and super cold beer. 

Looks like a good possibility.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2024, 01:01:14 PM

Radar shows it creeping this way.  Fingers crossed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2024, 10:14:00 PM

Well it got here.  Sort of.  There's been a very light but steady rain for about 6 hours now.  But it's only released around 0.5".  Was hoping for about 5-10x that amount but a little bit is better than nada.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2024, 11:18:23 AM

This New Liquid Battery Is a Breakthrough in Renewable Storage (popularmechanics.com) (https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a61147145/liquid-battery-renewable-energy-storage-breakthrough/?utm_campaign=trueanthemFBPOP&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1hUqSrgPtgZhCPcuNI3Aj35oK4h5XT8Bn5MgF6YYOncUtH_BrShvSb7OQ_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 21, 2024, 11:57:37 AM

So this thing gonna cross Florida or what?

(https://media.surlyhorns.com/monthly_2024_06/image.thumb.gif.a1c94559776b1c2dd1c8a249e8f35dbf.gif)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2024, 12:13:27 PM

It could if it turns. Sounds like it's gonna be more toward the Florida-Georgia Line.

From the NHC:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Updated:  Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 
aircraft and visible satellite imagery indicate that the area of 
low pressure located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, 
has developed a well-defined center of circulation and is 
producing winds to near 35 mph, but the associated showers and 
thunderstorms are not quite organized enough for this system to be 
considered a tropical cyclone.  However, only a small increase in 
the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in 
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it 
reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and 
interests there should monitor its progress.  For more information, 
refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather 
Service Forecast Office.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2024, 12:15:25 PM

We're close to needing some rain.  The highs for the next ten days are all in the 90s.  It wasn't terrible out there earlier though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2024, 11:01:25 PM

117 today

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 21, 2024, 11:49:29 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2024, 11:01:25 PM

117 today

Its called June in Arizona

Been in the low 90s here in Houston

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2024, 07:42:27 AM

Quote from: utee94 on June 21, 2024, 11:57:37 AM

So this thing gonna cross Florida or what?

Just a little rain. Storm is out of the forecast.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2024, 09:17:53 AM

rain has stopped for now

had to call the course to see if they were allowing carts out

FORE!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2024, 12:24:53 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/Nb2NLgG.jpeg)Finally made it to Cypress Street Pub. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2024, 08:48:06 AM

I see @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) is on the board today, so his area must be on high ground. A lot of SD and IA are a disaster right now.

(https://i.imgur.com/cxR9YJY.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2024, 08:58:02 AM

yup, many roads north of me are impassable

al this water will be passing by Sewer City in the next week via the Missouri river - sending it to Omaha and points south

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2024, 09:00:34 AM

At the borders of South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota, floodwaters rose over several days.

In the Sioux City, Iowa, area, a huge train bridge collapsed into the Big Sioux River late Sunday, an emergency manager said.

The bridge connects North Sioux City, South Dakota, with nearby Sioux City, Iowa, Jason Westcott, an emergency manager in Union County, South Dakota, told KCAU-TV. Some of the trusses collapsed, Westcott said.


Images from local media show a large span of the steel bridge partially underwater as floodwaters rush over it.

(https://i.imgur.com/qLvf73d.png)

In northwest Iowa, 13 rivers flooded, said Eric Tigges of Clay County emergency management. Entire neighborhoods, and at least one whole town, were evacuated, and the Iowa town of Spencer imposed a curfew Sunday for a second night after flooding that surpassed a record set in 1953.

“When the flood gauge is underwater, it’s really high,” Tigges said at a news conference organized by Spencer officials.

Gov. Kim Reynolds declared a disaster for 21 counties in northern Iowa, including Sioux County. In drone video posted by the local sheriff, no streets were visible, just roofs and treetops poking above the water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2024, 09:06:43 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/30dseW6.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2024, 09:10:10 AM

Don't mess with water. It cannot be controlled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2024, 09:33:14 AM

don't worry about me fellas
I'm on high ground and don't need to drive through water on closed roads to get groceries, yet.

high ground = Loess hills

The Loess Hills are generally located between 1 and 15 miles east of the Missouri River channel. The Loess Hills rise 200 feet  above the flat plains forming a narrow band running north–south 200 miles  along the Missouri River. These hills are the first rise in land beyond the floodplain, forming something of a "front range" for Iowa, and parts of Missouri and Nebraska adjacent to the Missouri River. The Loess land formations of Iowa extend north into South Dakota and is a feature of three state Parks in South Eastern South Dakota. Union Grove State Park, Newton Hills State Park and Blood Run State Park.


During the last Ice Age, glaciers advanced into the middle of North America, grinding underlying rock into dust-like "glacial flour." As temperatures warmed, the glaciers retreated and vast amounts of meltwater and sediment flooded the Missouri River Valley. The sediment was deposited on the flood plain, creating huge mud flats. When meltwaters receded, these mud flats were exposed. As they dried, the fine-grained silt was picked up by strong prevailing westerly winds. Huge dust clouds were moved and redeposited over broad areas. The heavier, coarser silt was deposited close to the Missouri River flood plain, forming vast dune fields. The dune fields were eventually stabilized by grass. Due to the erosive nature of loess soil and its ability to stand in vertical columns when dry, the stabilized dunes were eroded into the corrugated, sharply dissected bluffs we see today.

The dominant features of this landscape are "peak and saddle" topography, "razor ridges" (narrow ridges, often less than 10 feet (3 m) wide, which fall off at near ninety-degree angles on either side for 60 feet or more, and "cat-step" terraces (caused by the constant slumping and vertical shearing of the loess soil). The soil has a characteristic yellow hue and is generally broken down into several units based on the period of deposition (Loveland, Pisgah, Peoria). Loess is known locally as "sugar clay" because it can be extremely hard when dry, but when wet, loses all cohesion. The Loess Hills of Iowa are remarkable for the depth of the drift layer, often more than 90 feet deep. The only comparable deposits of loess to such an extent are located in Shaanxi, China.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2024, 09:41:36 AM

Reminds me of the Scablands in Washington state.

Ice Age Floods in Washington State (scenicwa.com) (https://www.scenicwa.com/story/ice-age-floods-in-washington-state)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2024, 03:20:00 PM

Dam it!

Minnesota's Rapidan Dam collapses - sending river of water toward town (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/minnesota-s-rapidan-dam-collapses-sending-river-of-water-toward-town/ss-BB1oOjd1?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=7155acaca86746629402c0491f8cef41&ei=13)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2024, 03:54:33 PM

Not much going on out there, but it's still so early in the season. 

(https://i.imgur.com/bX5fh3M.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2024, 04:51:29 PM

GREENFIELD, IOWA TORNADO BREAKS ALL-TIME WINDSPEED RECORD- Dethroning the May 3rd, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore Tornado! 309-318mph winds!


(https://i.imgur.com/Ua2IPrA.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2024, 05:18:41 PM

Saharan Dust is saving us for now.

New tropical disturbance being tracked in Atlantic (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/new-tropical-disturbance-being-tracked-in-atlantic/ar-BB1oOvuS?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=14adcc033fef474ea443621ac7f58ea0&ei=13)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2024, 06:01:28 PM

Not good news...

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-heavier-temperature-previously-thought-analysis.html

Quote

Stronger relationship

When the researchers plot the derived temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels of the past 15 million years against each other, they find a strong relationship.

The average temperature 15 million years back was over 18 degrees: 4 degrees warmer than today and about the level that the UN climate panel, IPCC, predicts for the year 2100 in the most extreme scenario.

"So, this research gives us a glimpse of what the future could hold if we take too few measures to reduce CO2 emissions and also implement few technological innovations to offset emissions," Damsté said.

"The clear warning from this research is CO2 concentration is likely to have a stronger impact on temperature (https://phys.org/tags/temperature/) than we are currently taking into account."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2024, 06:10:27 PM

The average temperature 15 million years back was over 18 degrees: 4 degrees warmer than today and about the level that the UN climate panel, IPCC, predicts for the year 2100 in the most extreme scenario.

I presume this is degrees C, and the "average T" is considered to be 15°C (59°F), and has been for quite some time, and increasing.  And we also know Malinkovitch cycles have had an enormous impact in T in the past, so this article seems to be confusing to me.

 "A very small fraction of the carbon on Earth occurs in a 'heavy form,' ¹³C instead of the usual ¹²C. 

As for this comment, I would not say it's a very small fraction, it's 1.1%.  I guess that's semantics.  Your MRI scans depend on it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2024, 06:39:01 PM

Our reconstructed pCO₂ values across the past 15 million years suggest Earth system sensitivity averages 13.9 °C per doubling of pCO₂ and equilibrium climate sensitivity averages 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO₂. Although these values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, they are consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models and consistent with other proxy-based estimates.

I read the article pretty quickly but didn't see any commentary on ice ages etc.  If the 7.2°C figure is anywhere close to correct, we're in for serious problems (but that is for doubling, which is somewhere in the 2100 period).

 Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2024, 07:12:44 PM

I didn't get too in depth on the article. I didn't have time to read the source paper (if it's even publicly available w/o paywall). 

It just worries me if we now are getting evidence that climate sensitivity to CO2 is higher than predicted. If that's actually the case, it's quite bad. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2024, 07:19:35 PM

The article is open to read.  And yes, that is its conclusion. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 24, 2024, 10:45:39 PM

(https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.4DXbFCl38Jv5HcYVELsSpQAAAA?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2024, 08:14:46 AM

91% humidity here currently

only 79 degrees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2024, 08:24:57 AM

That isn't  unusual for mornings, high humidity and lower T.  Then relative humidity drops of course as T rises.

73°F here and 63% RH.  Yesterday was pretty hot, but "it was a dry heat", it was not too bad in the shade, nice breeze etc.

Supposed to hit 95°F, which is a bit unusual, but not a record (99°F in 1988).  Average is 88°F.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2024, 08:27:38 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/oG8IXTT.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2024, 08:29:27 AM

yup, I-29 closed north of Sioux City towards Sioux Falls, SD and south of Sioux City towards Omaha

it's a shit show

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2024, 08:55:17 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — As he campaigned for the presidency, Joe Biden promised to spend billions of dollars to “save the world” from climate change. One of the largest players in the solar industry was ready.

Executives, officials and major investors in First Solar, the largest domestic maker of solar panels, donated at least $2 million to Democrats in 2020, including $1.5 million to Biden’s successful bid for the White House. After he won, the company spent $2.8 million more lobbying his administration and Congress, records show — an effort that included high-level meetings with top administration officials.

The strategy was a dramatic departure from the Arizona-based company’s posture under then-President Donald Trump, whom corporate officials publicly called out as hostile toward renewable energy. It has also paid massive dividends as First Solar became perhaps the biggest beneficiary of an estimated $1 trillion in environmental spending enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act, a major piece of legislation Biden signed into law in 2022 after it cleared Congress solely with Democratic votes.


https://apnews.com/article/biden-solar-inflation-reduction-act-dca914675cd0855004214d82aab5b10c (https://apnews.com/article/biden-solar-inflation-reduction-act-dca914675cd0855004214d82aab5b10c)

Since then, First Solar’s stock price has doubled and its profits have soared thanks to new federal subsidies that could be worth as much as $10 billion over a decade. The success has also delivered a massive windfall to a small group of Democratic donors who invested heavily in the company.

Founded in 1999 by a private equity group that included a Walmart fortune heir, First Solar went public in 2006, the same year former Vice President Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth” helped raise consciousness about the threat of climate change. Company officials cultivated a constituency with Democrats during Barack Obama’s administration, which in turn subsidized their industry — and First Solar — through billions of dollars in government-backed loans.

When the Biden administration started writing rules to implement the Democrats’ new law, First Solar executives and lobbyists met at least four times in late 2022 and 2023 with administration officials, including John Podesta, who oversaw the measure’s environmental provisions. One of the more intimate gatherings was attended by Podesta, Widmar and Sloan, as well as First Solar’s contract lobbyist, Claudia James, an old friend of Podesta’s who worked for decades at a lobbying firm run by Podesta’s brother, Tony, records show.


The law has been consequential for First Solar.

The company will benefit from billions of dollars in lucrative tax credits for domestic clean energy manufacturers — a policy aimed at putting the U.S. on a more competitive footing with green energy giant China. Though intended to reward clean energy businesses, the credits can also be sold on the open market to companies that have little to do with fighting climate change.


Last December, First Solar agreed to sell roughly $650 million of these credits to a tech company — providing a massive influx of cash, courtesy of the U.S. government.

Investors in the company, including a handful of major Democratic donors, have also benefited as First Solar’s share price soars.

Farhad “Fred” Ebrahimi, co-founder of the software company Quark, was added to Forbes billionaires list in 2023 thanks to the skyrocketing value of his roughly 5% stake in First Solar, financial disclosures show. Ebrahimi, along with his wife and family, contributed at least $1 million to Biden’s 2020 election effort, according to campaign finance disclosures.


More recently, First Solar paid $350 million to settle a securities fraud lawsuit — an agreement announced shortly before the case was set to go to trial. The company denied wrongdoing and the settlement in 2020 included no admission of liability.

Details included in the case file offer a damning portrait. Investors accused company officials of lying about the scope of a defect that caused panels to fail prematurely, court records state. It was a decision, investors argued, driven by company executives’ desire to preserve First Solar’s stock price.

But while First Solar officials downplayed the extent of the problem, some of them dumped personally held stock, according to court records. Mark Ahearn, the company’s founder and chairman, alone sold off more than $427 million in shares before the extent of the defect was made public and the stock tumbled. The ordeal ultimately cost the company $260 million to fix, court records state.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2024, 09:17:07 AM

Very much on the up and up.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2024, 09:45:48 AM

So long as they keep the Saharan dust coming, Africa can lob as much as they want towards us. Of course, the dust usually stops around September 1, which begins the teeth of the hurricane season.

(https://i.imgur.com/NnExc1s.png) 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 26, 2024, 10:18:50 AM

Ive never heard the theory that Sahara dust keeps hurricanes from forming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2024, 10:23:21 AM

It's not a theory. It's been proven true over time. We have it now. The sky will not be as bright. It also serves to lower water temperatures. The gulf has dropped 1.5 degrees in the past week.

The dust sucks moisture out of tropical systems and tamps them down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 26, 2024, 10:26:21 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2024, 10:23:21 AM

It's not a theory. It's been proven true over time. We have it now. The sky will not be as bright. It also serves to lower water temperatures. The gulf has dropped 1.5 degrees in the past week.

The dust sucks moisture out of tropical systems and tamps them down.

Interesting

Maybe we should setup sand blowing equipment or massive air drops

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2024, 10:29:16 AM

There are various proposals for "geoengineering" to reduce climate change that are interesting, and probably would work if things get too bad.

One is to salt the oceans with iron, which has been done on a small scale with rather remarkable results.

The recent lowering of sulfur in fuel used by ships may be an example of stopping one of those concepts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2024, 10:32:56 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 26, 2024, 10:29:16 AM

There are various proposals for "geoengineering" to reduce climate change that are interesting, and probably would work if things get too bad.

One is to salt the oceans with iron, which has been done on a small scale with rather remarkable results.

The recent lowering of sulfur in fuel used by ships may be an example of stopping one of those concepts.

Yeah, the sulfur thing is interesting. Unintentional geoengineering. It made pollution better, but accidentally made warming worse. (Note that I say "warming" rather than climate change there--sulfur dioxide doesn't inhibit climate change, it temporarily cools the planet while in the atmosphere though.)

I think given that we're not doing anywhere near what we would need to be doing to stop the continued growth of atmospheric CO2, we're going to have to really be looking into geoengineering. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2024, 10:41:48 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2024, 10:32:56 AM

I think given that we're not doing anywhere near what we would need to be doing to stop the continued growth of atmospheric CO2, we're going to have to really be looking into geoengineering.

Yes, at least as a backup plan.  There is some chance the models are off to the extent of over predicting T increases etc.  And there is roughly an equal chance they are off the bad direction, the possibility something tilts over some critical edge and, for example, permafrost starts melting and releasing methane etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2024, 08:28:36 AM

Tracking Invest 95L in the Eastern Atlantic (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/06/27/tracking-invest-95l/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-06-27-The-Weather-Aut)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2024, 10:44:21 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/TRt9CAh.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on June 27, 2024, 11:01:38 AM

This is the one time when I'll say== come to Texas.  You're welcome here.

(just, not as a hurricane okay?  How 'bout a nice gentle tropical depression throwing 12-20" of rain over a 2 day span?)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2024, 12:00:07 PM

I was out Tuesday when it was hot here, about 90°F when I went running.  There was a breeze and humidity was down, it was fine, I sweated a lot.

I went today, it was 80°F, but humidity is palpably up, and I sweated even more apparently, and it seemed a LOT hotter to me.  I'm still sweating.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2024, 01:51:23 PM

Here's what Americans think of local wind and solar development | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2024/06/27/heres-what-americans-think-of-local-wind-solar-development/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3LEitgxDXF6TJ_fKhyV2OhntgEyXDCmQ0a4NSj_SoKgl8q38GaH1b_KR0_aem_I8T3HuBXxgCCZG5t-6_fxQ)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2024, 02:50:30 PM

You following that damn dam story in Minnesota @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) ?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on June 28, 2024, 03:44:07 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2024, 02:50:30 PM

You following that damn dam story in Minnesota @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) ?

I am, and it's crazy.

https://www.keyc.com/2024/06/26/breaking-house-next-rapidan-dam-falls-into-blue-earth-river/

The Blue Earth River has already eaten the storekeeper's house, and while the bank may not take the store right now, the slope may be so unstable that it's not possible to keep it. The river volume needs to back off before the engineers can get out there and properly evaluate things. 

A friend of mine who grew up not a mile from there worked for Blue Earth County for a few summers. When he was there, he handled multiple reports on the dam dating back to at least the 80s in the courthouse basement. All of them recommended removing the dam. However, what was lacking was the funding and the political wherewithal to do so. I think both are forthcoming. Add in the fact that Gov. Walz is from Mankato, and it would not surprise me to see a special session late this summer/early fall to provide the funding. 

The Minnesota River at Mankato crested on Tuesday at it's second highest level ever (1993 and 1965 are the floods of record on the Minnesota). There is very little freeboard above the massive flood-fighting works downtown. The downstream gauge at Henderson hit it's highest ever level, and 

Another friend's family are farmers whose land is near the MN/IA/SD junction. They have lost all their crops due to rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2024, 08:46:12 AM

Wow.

Yeah, that thing needs to come down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2024, 08:51:22 AM

Might have to do hurricane prep next week depending on where this thing decides to turn.

Tropical Storm Beryl forecast to become first hurricane of season (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/06/29/tracking-beryl/)

(https://i.imgur.com/S1CT6Q3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on June 29, 2024, 10:30:49 AM

early spaghetti models predict Beryl likely heading to Mexico but this is very early so well just have to wait a few days for a more accurate prediction


(https://i.imgur.com/YIj3KpM.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2024, 05:35:38 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/Y77HbpV.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2024, 07:44:36 PM

it's not july, yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2024, 07:28:47 AM

Well-Tempered Traveler

The Well-Tempered Traveler shows year-round temperatures & precipitation levels for dozens of cities around the world.
https://www.google.com/welltemperedtraveler/ (https://www.google.com/welltemperedtraveler/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2024, 07:31:17 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 29, 2024, 10:30:49 AM

early spaghetti models predict Beryl likely heading to Mexico but this is very early so well just have to wait a few days for a more accurate prediction

Forecast cone trending South. Cat 4 gonna hit the windward islands tomorrow. I feel bad for them.


(https://i.imgur.com/v11SOQ6.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on June 30, 2024, 10:38:25 AM

Rented a house on Lake Michigan this week.  A nice reminder of the most pleasant summer weather in the lower 48 is in these parts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2024, 03:38:47 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/kuejN1T.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2024, 09:46:21 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2024, 03:38:47 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/kuejN1T.png)

2022 did start late, but then Ian came. Ouch.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2024, 09:47:48 AM

Still trending South. Cancun could be in trouble here, with storm surge, if this track is accurate.

(https://i.imgur.com/KHqx9z4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2024, 02:18:41 PM

Yup this is looking bad for Cancun, Cozumel, Play del Carmen, Tulum, Isla Mujeres.  Pretty much all of my favorite places to vacation in Mexico...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 02:22:41 PM

I much prefer the pacific side of Mexico for vacations

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2024, 02:26:00 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 02:22:41 PM

I much prefer the pacific side of Mexico for vacations

Oh no way, not me.  Water's cold, waves are sucky for swimming, the diving is terrible.  

The Caribbean side, the water is warm and beautiful, waves are mild, and the diving is incredible.

If you're a sport-fisher, the Pacific side is better.  For everything else, gimme the Mayan Riviera.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 01, 2024, 02:27:41 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 01, 2024, 02:26:00 PM

Oh no way, not me.  Water's cold, waves are sucky for swimming, the diving is terrible. 

The Caribbean side, the water is warm and beautiful, waves are mild, and the diving is incredible.

If you're a sport-fisher, the Pacific side is better.  For everything else, gimme the Mayan Riviera.

IOW, utee's soft :57:

I would say one other reported advantage of the Pacific side is surfing. That said, I don't go to Mexico so it's a moot point for me. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2024, 02:30:37 PM

I don't surf or sport-fish, so if that makes me soft, so be it.  I go on beach vacations for relaxing with beautiful, warm water, low key swimming, and diving.  All of those are far superior in the Caribbean.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 02:46:28 PM

I find the west coast to be much less expensive and less Americanized
I prefer sunsets to sunrises - maybe not now at my advanced age

Didn't enjoy Cabo San Lucas - much like southern Cali, and expensive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2024, 02:49:43 PM

The areas I go to in the Mayan Riviera actually tend to have more Euros than Americans.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 02:54:58 PM

yup, more Euros and Canucks on the east side

they're not awful

the Mexicans seem to prefer the Pacific side
they're OK

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2024, 02:57:21 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 02:54:58 PM

yup, more Euros and Canucks on the east side

they're not awful

the Mexicans seem to prefer the Pacific side
they're OK

Don't think I'd say that, tons of Mexicans on the Mayan Riviera.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2024, 03:37:40 PM

I like Cabo, but we stay in a house up on the rocks and go into town only during the day, and only a couple days out of the week we are there. It's a getaway with friends.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 04:01:34 PM

I like it OK.  Just seems I could easily be in San Diego.

Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlan, & Iztapa/Zihuatanejo were more laid back and authentic

wasn't as big a fan of Acapulco but, the cliff diving was cool

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2024, 04:05:43 PM

We are still on the fence about going down this year.

It's not like we are going for the weather. It's the same here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 04:14:49 PM

I haven't been to Mexico in 20 years.  The Ex liked it.
I don't have to go that far to find a golf course and good mexican food

but, I had some REALLY great seafood in Manzanillo, Mazatlan, & Zihuatanejo for cheap

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2024, 04:51:28 PM

I went to the gym and the pool.  My watch said 94°F.  There was a slight breeze and humidity is pretty low and the sun went behind a cloud, it was quite pleasant.  When the sun poked out it started to get a bit hot.  Duh.  I came in.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2024, 06:11:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 01, 2024, 04:51:28 PM

I went to the gym and the pool.  My watch said 94°F.  There was a slight breeze and humidity is pretty low and the sun went behind a cloud, it was quite pleasant.  When the sun poked out it started to get a bit hot.  Duh.  I came in.

Its good to be the King

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 01, 2024, 07:36:04 PM

https://youtu.be/3uVs6PD4l5A

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2024, 09:15:24 AM

Looks like Cancun may be spared. It is now forecast to be less than a hurricane.

Jamaica looks to be in trouble.

(https://i.imgur.com/e1EzaKP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2024, 09:56:11 AM

This thing is now a Cat 5. Devastating. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2024, 12:47:55 PM

Spaghetti models trending a little more north.  If it shoots the Yucatan-Cuba gap, it could potentially make a really nasty northward turn in the gulf.

(https://i.imgur.com/6GduwSB.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2024, 12:50:33 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2024, 12:47:55 PM

Spaghetti models trending a little more north.  If it shoots the Yucatan-Cuba gap, it could potentially make a really nasty northward turn in the gulf.

(https://i.imgur.com/6GduwSB.png)

Yep, I was just about to point this out.


(https://i.imgur.com/VZY7cSx.png)
Texas could get some needed rain out of this one if the track keeps trending as it is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2024, 01:04:04 PM

The more hurricane-savvy folks on surlyhorns (lots of Houston/Galveston folks), tell me that weak storms tend to stay westward, and stronger stores make that north-northeast turn in the gulf.

Right now it's just starting to hit some shear which could weaken it enough to stay westward, but we'll obviously know a lot more in about 48 hours.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2024, 01:42:02 PM

Exactly what I'm seeing. The problem I did see when looking at the latest NHC cone is that this thing is now predicted to be a Cat 1 when it hits Cancun. Earlier today it was a tropical storm. 

Hopefully the shear strengthens and shuts it down more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2024, 01:58:45 PM

Cat1 across Cancun shouldn't be catastrophic, they're accustomed to their share of storms.  Hopefully it weakens that much, by then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2024, 02:28:43 PM

Beryl weakens to Cat 4 storm as it moves through Caribbean (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/07/02/tracking-cat-5-hurricane-beryl/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-07-02-The-Weather-Aut)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2024, 08:44:10 AM

Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2024, 01:58:45 PM

Cat1 across Cancun shouldn't be catastrophic, they're accustomed to their share of storms.  Hopefully it weakens that much, by then.

I was told that one such storm washed out all the beaches in Cancun and they had to  truck in sand to replace them.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on July 03, 2024, 10:43:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 03, 2024, 08:44:10 AM

I was told that one such storm washed out all the beaches in Cancun and they had to  truck in sand to replace them. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Wilma_in_Mexico

Hurricane Wilma sat over Cancun for two full days as a major in October 2005.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 03, 2024, 11:29:21 AM

Yeah Wilma was a Cat4 when it hit, not a Cat1.  And as lh320 pointed out, it lingered far longer than most storms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 03, 2024, 10:53:49 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/vRILdON.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 04, 2024, 12:41:50 AM

Quote from: utee94 on July 03, 2024, 10:53:49 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/vRILdON.png)

The trick is how close their forecast is once it gets in the Gulf
Right now its moving at about 22 mph which is fairly fast.
If it can match that speed in the Gulf theres a good chanch it hits mostly in Mexico.
Its when they slow down that they have a tendency to gain strength and move in a more North direction.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 04, 2024, 02:04:45 AM

Supposed to be 110+ for the next week+

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 04, 2024, 09:51:13 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/qWYNJZk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 04, 2024, 01:29:05 PM

The centerline of that storm track and intensity at (second) landfall in Northern Mexico would be good for Central Texico, without being devastating to the communities along the coast. A LITTLE further north would be even better.

Definitely hope for safety for all island communities and the Yucatan along the path, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2024, 08:19:03 AM

Here ya go, @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) .

(https://i.imgur.com/PM1XNyt.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 05, 2024, 11:02:22 AM

Yup this is a very good track for much-needed rain in Central Texas.  Hopefully the intensity stays where it's currently predicted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2024, 01:39:07 PM

World's largest nuclear fusion reactor is finally completed. But it won't run for another 15 years. | Live Science (https://www.livescience.com/physics-mathematics/worlds-largest-nuclear-reactor-is-finally-completed-but-it-wont-run-for-another-15-years?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_content=livescience&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3wLNc9i-DbTxT-fMEOoX4b-5K_ZQv8ROjDvcL6zUK1RyXW1TP0HkzMD2M_aem_NMN6agdjcuNFAWJoX1e9WQ)

ITER, a $28 billion fusion reactor in France, has finally had its last magnetic coil installed. But the reactor itself won't fire up fully until 2039 at the earliest.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 05, 2024, 01:45:56 PM

no urgency regarding climate change

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 05, 2024, 01:47:52 PM

Google reveals 48% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2019, largely driven by data center energy demands

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/google-reveals-48-increase-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-2019-largely-driven-by-data-center-energy-demands (https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/google-reveals-48-increase-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-2019-largely-driven-by-data-center-energy-demands)

Google's carbon footprint jumped by 48% from 2019, amounting to 14.3 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions for 2023. According to the company's Environment Report 2024, 24% of its total emissions, or over 3.4 million tons, comes from market-based sources, i.e., purchased electricity.

Google plans to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030, and this massive increase looks like a major setback for the company. The company has been actively taking steps to hit this target, but despite its push to use carbon-free electricity sources for its offices and other facilities, data center growth has outmatched the supply of clean energy sources. Furthermore, some areas where Google operates, like in the Asia Pacific, rely more on non-carbon neutral energy sources, meaning the company is forced to purchase 'dirty' electricity while waiting for clean energy projects to come online.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2024, 01:55:21 PM

Texas could see some storm surge out of this one, being mostly on the dirty side.

(https://i.imgur.com/yNm523P.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 05, 2024, 02:08:49 PM

Euro model is out and has changed the landfall trajectory significantly to the north.  This would be bad both from an intensity standpoint (longer time tracking through warm gulf waters could mean Cat3 instead of Cat1) plus bad news for Central Texas.  If this thing hits at Matagorda or further north, then we'll see pretty much zero rain out of it.  This model sucks.

(https://i.imgur.com/oPgcLD4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2024, 02:11:28 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 05, 2024, 02:08:49 PM

Euro model is out and has changed the landfall trajectory significantly to the north.  This would be bad both from an intensity standpoint (longer time tracking through warm gulf waters could mean Cat3 instead of Cat1) plus bad news for Central Texas.  If this thing hits at Matagorda or further north, then we'll see pretty much zero rain out of it.  This model sucks.

(https://i.imgur.com/oPgcLD4.png)

Hopefully for you, the NHC projections hold. Y'all need the water, badly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 05, 2024, 10:03:53 PM

MIDDLETOWN, Pa. (WHP) — Constellation Energy is reportedly in talks with Pennsylvania officials to fund a potential restart of its Three Mile Island power facility, according to Reuters.

Plus, a spokesperson for the company is telling CBS 21 they have determined it would be technically feasible to restart the unit, but they haven't made a decision yet.

In an exclusive with the outlet, sources said the conversation is "beyond preliminary," but features plans to revive part of the nuclear generation site, Unit 1, which was operating from 1974 to 2019. Unit 1 is separate from the one that meltdown down all those years ago.


The outlet said Constellation has spoken with the Governor's office and state lawmakers about the potential plan. CBS 21 has reached out to several lawmakers in the area who said they did not know anything about the reported conversations.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2024, 11:10:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 05, 2024, 01:39:07 PM

World's largest nuclear fusion reactor is finally completed. But it won't run for another 15 years. | Live Science (https://www.livescience.com/physics-mathematics/worlds-largest-nuclear-reactor-is-finally-completed-but-it-wont-run-for-another-15-years?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_content=livescience&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3wLNc9i-DbTxT-fMEOoX4b-5K_ZQv8ROjDvcL6zUK1RyXW1TP0HkzMD2M_aem_NMN6agdjcuNFAWJoX1e9WQ)

ITER, a $28 billion fusion reactor in France, has finally had its last magnetic coil installed. But the reactor itself won't fire up fully until 2039 at the earliest.

It must be female...gotta pre-heat the oven before the fireworks start.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2024, 11:11:45 PM

118 today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 06, 2024, 07:44:09 AM

woke up early this morning with a blanket on

windows were open and 58 degrees outside

68 degrees in the house this morning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2024, 07:50:58 AM

It's nice to have that. We'll wait about 6 months before that comes back.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2024, 09:10:02 AM

I was sitting outside just now, and I heard something for the first time.

A rattlesnake. Couldn't quite tell where it was. Gonna have to keep an eye out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2024, 09:13:03 AM

My uncle lived in FL many years, and he told us they would crawl under his car in the carport at times seeking heat.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 06, 2024, 09:28:43 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2024, 07:50:58 AM

It's nice to have that. We'll wait about 6 months before that comes back.

Low of 65, high of 84 today. Not too shabby. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 06, 2024, 09:51:55 AM

Shifting eastward.  I'm now predicting we'll get zero rain. So typical.

(https://i.imgur.com/1oS5bOQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2024, 10:00:08 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 06, 2024, 09:28:43 AM

Low of 65, high of 84 today. Not too shabby.

We've got you beat, handily.  Ha.  83°F already with t-storms in the PM, so only going up to 89°F. 

We had a pretty dramatic one yesterday, very brief, quite high winds for a bit.  The trees were moving a lot.  I was checking for funnel clouds.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 06, 2024, 10:07:43 AM

hoping the rain holds off until done golfing

11:22 tee time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2024, 10:11:47 AM

We get a lot of rain here of course, more than most larger cities, and it usually comes around 4PM, in a torrent, lasts about 15 minutes, and stops, leaving a rather humid aftermath.  It makes the place green at least.

Houston gets more rain, Seattle not nearly as much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 06, 2024, 10:16:26 AM

after 3 or 4 years of near drought conditions, we have plenty of rain

crops look as good as I can remember

Economy here should be good about harvest time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 07, 2024, 10:31:28 AM

Austin and CenTex gonna get pretty much nothing, meanwhile Houston and East Texas are going to get a ton of rain they don't want or need. Sucks.

(https://i.imgur.com/KuFtORA.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2024, 10:32:38 AM

I'm heading to Illinois/Wisconsin on Thursday, so that sucks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2024, 10:34:59 AM

Perfect as usual...

(https://i.imgur.com/TR3quEW.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 07, 2024, 10:48:59 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2024, 10:32:38 AM

I'm heading to Illinois/Wisconsin on Thursday, so that sucks.

It'll just be some rain at that point.  Sweet, delicious, unattainable rain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2024, 10:58:56 AM

We get enough rain here. Don't need to see more up there. 

Chilly, grey and wet. Can't wait to get back home already.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 07, 2024, 11:01:25 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2024, 10:34:59 AM

Perfect as usual...

[img width=500 height=449.995]https://i.imgur.com/TR3quEW.png[/img]

same here, 79 today with full sun
high 50s for the overnight low
I'm going golfing

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2024, 11:38:17 AM

Hopefully some of the arms drop rain on central Texas, and it doesn't intensify too much for the Gulf area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2024, 01:00:59 PM

Beryl live updates: Storm expected to slam into Texas coast as hurricane (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/beryl-live-updates-storm-expected-to-slam-into-texas-coast-as-hurricane/ar-BB1pwxDw?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=a13d569f8d154b8b8fea564b12ba9d79&ei=13)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2024, 06:16:52 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2024, 01:00:59 PM

Beryl live updates: Storm expected to slam into Texas coast as hurricane (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/beryl-live-updates-storm-expected-to-slam-into-texas-coast-as-hurricane/ar-BB1pwxDw?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=a13d569f8d154b8b8fea564b12ba9d79&ei=13)

goody

time to go without power for 4 or 5 days

I can hardly wait

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 07, 2024, 06:43:56 PM

and ya think ya want beachfront property

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2024, 07:38:59 AM

At least it's "only" cat 1.  Texas should be OK aside from some flooding.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2024, 07:51:40 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2024, 07:38:59 AM

At least it's "only" cat 1.  Texas should be OK aside from some flooding.

8-12" of rain and Houston do not play nicely together.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2024, 08:52:11 AM

Especially when Houston and SE Texas have already been flooded out for the past several months.

Meanwhile we have life-threatening drought-conditions with no end in sight. What a difference 150 miles makes...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2024, 08:57:59 AM

Stormwater management and infrastructure is largely non-existent in Houston. It's only been in the past 10-15 years or so that they've started to pay attention.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2024, 09:05:26 AM

I understand most storm damage is due to water, not wind, which makes sense.

Drainage is probably tough when the terrain is flat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2024, 09:07:28 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2024, 08:57:59 AM

Stormwater management and infrastructure is largely non-existent in Houston. It's only been in the past 10-15 years or so that they've started to pay attention.

For sure but the rest of the broader area is already flooded out as well, it's not just an urban Houston proper thing.  They've had record rainfall for months, the last thing they need is more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2024, 09:11:00 AM

150 miles ....  you just need a long tube.  And a pump probably.  And dikes and dams ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 08, 2024, 09:23:58 AM

Things are sporty here. Hurricane made landfall about 30 miles SW of us. Power went out last night. Roof is blown off our cow barn, sky lights are ripped off my shop. Still pretty windy. 

Reports that we got 17” of rain since last night. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2024, 09:30:52 AM

Best wishes Gigem. I don't wish this stuff on anyone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2024, 09:39:53 AM

Yup hang in there.  My NASA-engineer buddy who lives right next to Johnson Space Center lost power many hours ago and it's still not restored, and lost half his fence, but is otherwise okay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2024, 10:26:54 AM

1st known fatality, a man in Humble, TX (suburb of Houston) killed after a tree crashed into his home.

@gigem and @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16)  keep us updated.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2024, 12:45:25 PM

Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2024, 10:26:54 AM

1st known fatality, a man in Humble, TX (suburb of Houston) killed after a tree crashed into his home.

@gigem and @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16)  keep us updated.

On for just a minute

No Power but so far no other issues

2nd time Ive been in a storms eye

lucky me

hope gigem is ok

rodger out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 08, 2024, 01:21:55 PM

Sitting tight for now. Storms past us. Got some damage to barn and shop and rent houses. No flooding here. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2024, 01:22:31 PM

Thanks for checking in guys.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 08, 2024, 05:04:13 PM

Ok, able to post now. I admit I did not take this storm that seriously. Cat 1 storm, no biggie right?  Wrong. Massive amounts of trees, mostly mature pecans, are down all over. Power lines are laying on the ground everywhere. I am not even exaggerating when I say we may not have power for weeks. There will surely be places that won’t have power for maybe a month. 

About 25% of the roof of my tractor barn is blown off ( the tin is ripped off). Two of my rent houses sustained significant damage, one of which the meter loop was ripped out of the wall. Another rent house a massive 100 year old pecan fell and crushed the shed of the home next door. 

I’ll post some pics when I get a chance. We’re about to go chain sawing. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2024, 05:48:59 PM

That sounds much worse than I expected, and hoped, it would be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 08, 2024, 07:37:39 PM

I’m running my home on my 5kw generator. I have it plugged into a box back feeding the house ( main breaker is off of course). I’m able to run my smaller AC, which is 2 ton. It’s upstairs. Currently 79 in the house, so not too bad. Supposed to be 94 tomorrow, so we’ll see. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2024, 09:07:06 PM

Glad you guys are okay.  The no flooding part is huge.

Hurricanes can exceed expectations because the forecasts focus on sustained winds.  The gusts can get bananas and repeat for a long time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 08, 2024, 10:50:22 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/ojDXYth.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2024, 07:51:00 AM

I'm glad you and your family are OK.

From way over here I did not see how bad a Cat 1 could get. We had one hit and it really didn't do much of anything. I guess they are all different.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on July 09, 2024, 09:12:05 AM

Remnants of this pushing heavy rain into Indiana tonight and Wed.   Always surreal when we get rain from these storms.  Always comes in from the south winds are not the norm.   Definitely has an odd vibe. 


Hope our Texas friends are safe and receive the support they need. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2024, 09:40:47 AM

Very quiet in the tropics right now. Lots of Saharan Dust out there. It's really hazy here.

(https://i.imgur.com/b4MGbap.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2024, 09:43:32 AM

Some variables with any Cat. 1 storm:

Wind gusts
Landfall at high tide or low
Land whether right or left of center  (right is generally worse)

Speed of movement (slow is worse, more rain)
Rain intensity
Size of the storm from center

Probably some other things

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 09, 2024, 10:10:56 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on July 09, 2024, 09:12:05 AM

Remnants of this pushing heavy rain into Indiana tonight and Wed.  Always surreal when we get rain from these storms.  Always comes in from the south winds are not the norm.  Definitely has an odd vibe.

So frustrating that this thing flooded out already flooded regions, and is bringing rain to Indiana, but we got literally zero precip from it less than 160 miles from where it made landfall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2024, 01:51:02 PM

Hunga Tonga volcano: impact on record warming | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2024/07/05/hunga-tonga-volcano-impact-on-record-warming/#more-31371)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 09, 2024, 02:17:27 PM

Justy started to get rain here in Northern Ohio from the hurricane. It looks like we will get some on and off rain for the next 24 hours.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 09, 2024, 11:14:08 PM

Fixed the roof on the tractor barn. Fences are temp fixed for cows. Backyard wood fence still down. Still no power, but the town is starting to get it again. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2024, 08:59:58 AM

I'm impressed with how fast they get power restored.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2024, 09:44:33 AM

smart guys with experience

not many college degrees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2024, 10:03:34 AM

Every place gets storms at times, we get a lot of limbs down on power lines here with just a strong thunder storm because there are a lot of trees.  The news migth say "50,000" without power, which I'd guess means 20 or so downed lines, and they get them repaired in a few hours, usually.  That means 20+ crews find the spot, and repair the line, in a few hours.  It's impressive, to me.

When I was a kid, we had a bad ice storm.  Everything was down.  Pine trees had snapped off during the night, I was kept awake hearing them snap, like a cannon going off.  We were without power for six days, had to walk up the street to a Waffle House for any hot food.  It warmed up after the storm, so the house wasn't too cold.  This was maybe 1968 or so.  We couldn't drive on our street for six days because of all the trees down, some were just bent over like a U and blocking the street, had to be cut down.

Looked like a "war zone".  The whole metro area was like that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on July 11, 2024, 12:24:22 AM

Pretty incredible, especially the higher totals are in Northern IN.   Indiana rainfall totals (from Beryl)

• Rochester:  4.05"
• Elkhart:  3.73"
• South Bend:  3.07"
• Richmond: 2.61"
• Lafayette: 2.56"
• Brookville: 2.04"
• Carmel: 1.81"
• Kokomo: 1.74"
• Valparaiso: 1.60"
• Greenwood: 1.44"
• Jeffersonville: 1.43"
• Zionsville: 1.35"
• Indianapolis: 1.29"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 11, 2024, 02:04:05 AM

Man you're really twisting the knife now, aren't you?

Austin: 0.0"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 12, 2024, 08:24:30 AM

Got power back late yesterday. So did my brother and mom. Very impressed with the line guys, they had to replace several poles and reinstall downed lines. 

Still lots of folks around with no power. Things are slowly improving. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2024, 08:25:57 AM

good for you and your family

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2024, 09:42:41 AM

Glad to hear it!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2024, 10:23:45 AM

Georgia Power users see big increase in power bill | 13wmaz.com (https://www.13wmaz.com/article/news/local/georgia-power-users-see-big-increase-in-power-bill/93-314ae717-e77b-48ec-ac34-f57e10a600e9?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3xEPpGyBrmn8wFiqzBFot-JH3L8cy8aK4G2RoShI-DdyDauQ_Vq0inO38_aem_VjtFwwzh9azQujgEJSk_RA)

She said her most recent bill cost $1,200. Many people on Facebook told us that their bills doubled too. Most people shared their spending between $600 to $1,300. 
"We went through a couple power outages, so for me, I couldn't figure out anything that would justify that," Morton said. 
She says she called Georgia Power to ask a representative about the bill. She said in the middle of the conversation, she was sent to an automated message.
We reached out to Georgia Power ourselves. 
"We're feeling it and we understand. This is one of the hottest summers (in years), so we're really empathetic to our customers," the Georgia Power spokesperson, Amanda Arnold said.
Morton says she thinks the one unusually high summer bill should be removed from that budget billing total cost.
"Don't factor that bill in, because you see it's completely different from the other bills," Morton said. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2024, 10:28:33 AM

Warren Buffet

(https://i.imgur.com/czkWFBH.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2024, 03:52:54 PM

@longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) you still with us, buddy? Haven't heard from you in a bit with all the weather problems endured in your area. Hope all is well!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 12, 2024, 10:37:31 PM

Still no power at my shop. Will be running off the genset tomorrow now that I don’t need it at the house. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2024, 11:30:09 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Eaq6E5q.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2024, 09:09:53 PM

got power back 2 hours ago

what did I miss

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2024, 07:32:59 AM

Very wild weather in Chicago last night. I talked to my brother and he was genuinely concerned about tornadoes. 

More than 10 tornadoes reported in stormy Chicago night — including twisters near both airports - Chicago Sun-Times (suntimes.com) (https://chicago.suntimes.com/weather/2024/07/15/severe-storms-chicago-tornadoes-spotted-south-side-midway-bronzeville)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2024, 12:52:41 PM

Dam it!

US city ordered to evacuate with dam on verge of ‘imminent collapse’ (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-city-ordered-to-evacuate-with-dam-on-verge-of-imminent-collapse/ss-BB1q5vlH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=59c8ee05094c411b838fb22dd01b8834&ei=15)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2024, 12:54:16 PM

Hawaii settles lawsuit from youths over climate change. Here's what to know about the historic deal | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-youth-climate-lawsuit-things-to-know-bcb791b6f23c7dc798bf9e3cd2b67f97#:~:text=A key term of the,reduction plan within a year.)

A key term of the settlement requires Hawaii to achieve zero greenhouse gas emissions across all transportation modes, including ground transportation and sea and air interisland transportation, “no later than 2045.”
The state must also come up with a greenhouse gas reduction plan within a year.
The transportation department must complete pedestrian, bicycle and transit networks in coordination with Hawaii counties within five years, while dedicating at least $40 million to expanding the public electric vehicle charging network by 2030.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2024, 01:15:35 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2024, 12:54:16 PM

Hawaii settles lawsuit from youths over climate change. Here's what to know about the historic deal | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-youth-climate-lawsuit-things-to-know-bcb791b6f23c7dc798bf9e3cd2b67f97#:~:text=A key term of the,reduction plan within a year.)

A key term of the settlement requires Hawaii to achieve zero greenhouse gas emissions across all transportation modes, including ground transportation and sea and air interisland transportation, “no later than 2045.”
The state must also come up with a greenhouse gas reduction plan within a year.
The transportation department must complete pedestrian, bicycle and transit networks in coordination with Hawaii counties within five years, while dedicating at least $40 million to expanding the public electric vehicle charging network by 2030.

This ought to be interesting

We have our own test tube baby for going green

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2024, 01:23:24 PM

I note that a governor today can commit to achieving something in 21 years with relative aplomb.

Hawaii does need more alternative energy in my view, it was or is largely based on burning oil at this point.  They have prevailing winds and a lot of sunshine, and even geothermal possibilities.

The transportation sector will be much more of a challenge of course.  I don't think they have a realistic shot at meeting that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 17, 2024, 07:52:30 AM

The state must also come up with a greenhouse gas reduction plan within a year.

great idea

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2024, 07:54:39 AM

Sure, said plan can be like the "plans" we see all over, it doesn't have to be anything "real".  I could write one myself in an hour.

We're going to build more wind and solar and mandate electric cars and buses and trucks by X date and buy EV airplanes for interisland transport.

I guess it took me about 30 seconds.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2024, 11:41:11 AM

Why climate change is missing from the high-stakes storm chaser sequel (msnbc.com) (https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/twisters-review-climate-change-missing-storm-sequel-rcna162322)

I found this amusing, the "reviewer" is chagrined the movie doesn't mention climate change, as, of course, every movie should deal with some current issue, right?  And promote some message?

It's a movie.  The first one was dumb, this one is probably dumber.

Movies that try and carry some social message often fail and flail in my view.  They get popular with one segment, and are eschewed by another.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 22, 2024, 10:46:26 PM

Jesus, it hasn’t stopped raining here for almost two weeks. Probably 10-15 inches or more. Predicted to rain thru next week. 

Marcus are y’all getting any of this rain up in Cen Tex ? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on July 22, 2024, 10:56:40 PM

Quote from: Gigem on July 22, 2024, 10:46:26 PM

Jesus, it hasn’t stopped raining here for almost two weeks. Probably 10-15 inches or more. Predicted to rain thru next week.

Marcus are y’all getting any of this rain up in Cen Tex ?

we could use some in N.Ohio - not that freakin' much tho

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 22, 2024, 11:06:38 PM

Quote from: Gigem on July 22, 2024, 10:46:26 PM

Jesus, it hasn’t stopped raining here for almost two weeks. Probably 10-15 inches or more. Predicted to rain thru next week.

Marcus are y’all getting any of this rain up in Cen Tex ?

An inch here and there.  Not nearly enough.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2024, 06:32:01 AM

Some rain here the past few days has moderated the temperatures at least, but it's muggy.  We're in the summer cycle where it rains for 20 minutes almost every evening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2024, 07:53:54 AM

we're gonna get some heat

will be good for the corn - filling out ears now

upper 80s lower 90s and humid

no rain in sight but we've had enough to carry the crops through the next 3 or 4 weeks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 23, 2024, 09:49:27 AM

Here we go again...
(https://i.imgur.com/SzILc21.png)

From the looks of it Cen Tex is getting some rain this round.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 23, 2024, 10:34:16 AM

We'll see.  Past several days have looked just like that but the big stuff keeps sliding to the north of us.  Yesterday's setup that looked ideal, only yielded about 0.5" at my house.  Which of course is better than nothing, but not anywhere close to the inches upon inches that we really need, and that so many other spots in Texas have been getting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 23, 2024, 10:35:44 AM

The good news is that the Lake Buchanan recharge basin has been getting a lot, all summer.

Lake Travis basin, not so much.  But that blob out to the west is in the right spot to help out both of them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 23, 2024, 10:43:14 AM

Great site I found to chart all the lakes.  

https://canyon-tx.lakesonline.com/StateSites/

(https://i.imgur.com/LilZzXc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 23, 2024, 10:45:17 AM

Yeah, Buchanan is really getting it this year (although still down a lot). 

(https://i.imgur.com/QoFifFT.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 23, 2024, 11:13:06 AM

That's a cool site, thanks!

It' an LCRA site so it really only works for tracking rainfall, streamflows, and lake levels in CenTex, but the LCRA hydromet site is pretty cool!

https://hydromet.lcra.org/

This particular view shows rainfall over the past 12 hours, in inches:

(https://i.imgur.com/IrYxh9o.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 25, 2024, 09:43:41 AM

Interesting read.

climate.cmail20.com/t/d-e-edkgty-iiirtykrjj-r/ (https://climate.cmail20.com/t/d-e-edkgty-iiirtykrjj-r/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2024, 02:32:41 PM

Hurricane season forecast: When storms could appear again | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/26/weather/atlantic-hurricane-forecast-climate/index.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2024, 08:07:00 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/HNMVyqo.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 27, 2024, 08:13:18 PM

We appear to have a few wildfires in the area. It was smokey here this morning. I couldn't even see the mountains. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on July 27, 2024, 11:23:07 PM

Heard reports that our area got. 27” of rain in July so far. I’m not sure that’s correct, and I can’t find a central source, but I’d believe at least 20”. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/i4OFvy0.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2024, 09:45:53 AM

Tropical depression or storm could develop in Atlantic this week | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/new-tropical-disturbance-being-tracked-atlantic)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2024, 10:01:58 AM

Things you wont have to worry about under Trump

https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/27/janet-yellen-78-trillion-climate-change/#google_vignette

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2024, 10:29:46 AM

I'm glad to  hear "they" are being somewhat more honest about this mess.  To be somewhat "fair", that $78 trillion is global, not just US.  And it's probably an underestimate.

It doesn't matter of course, there isn't that much money available anywhere even spread over 25.5 years.  Some countries will continue to pay for some appearances that could only have a small impact on CO2 production.  

I am fully expecting more press releases saying how "we" are falling woefully short of "our" climate goals.  NS.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2024, 10:32:15 AM

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record high in 2023 | Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability (https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-reached-record-high-2023)

The Global Carbon Project’s new estimates arrive in the middle of the climate summit known as COP28, where countries that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement are discussing efforts to achieve the accord’s goal of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“The impacts of climate change are evident all around us, but action to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels remains painfully slow,” said lead study author Pierre Friedlingstein (http://emps.exeter.ac.uk/mathematics/staff/pf229) of the Global Systems Institute (https://gsiexeter.co.uk/) at the University of Exeter in the UK. “It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5 C target of the Paris Agreement, and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2 C target alive.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2024, 10:41:10 AM

Imagine a day where the head of the US Treasury calls for spending money that doesn't exist and never will.

This is that day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2024, 10:52:30 AM

Of course, it depends on Congress, which won't do anything like that.  If the US were responsible for 20% of that, obviously it would be $15.6 trillion, which over 25.5 years is $624 billion a year.  The much lauded "climate bill" Congress passed a couple years back allocates $37 billion a year, so we're 17x "short".

This stuff annoys me for some reason, or entertains me, one or the other.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2024, 02:57:06 PM

Tropical depression or storm could form and track toward Florida, Southeast US | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/florida-southeast-us-tropical-threat)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2024, 03:19:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 28, 2024, 10:32:15 AM

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record high in 2023 | Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability (https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-reached-record-high-2023)

but, but, electric cars....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2024, 03:50:17 PM

They will reach a global high in 2024, and 2025 ... I expect, barring a recession, or COVID 2.  Then we'll see continued hand wringing about it all and pleas to "do more", of something, throw money at it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2024, 09:00:50 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/YXa8bmD.png)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the 
Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to 
environmental dry air.  Conditions are forecast to become a little 
more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form 
late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater 
Antilles or the Bahamas.  Interests in the Greater Antilles, the 
Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of 
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2024, 10:42:11 AM

SWFL remains hopeful yet cautious in the face of potential tropical system (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/07/29/swfl-remains-hopeful-yet-cautious-in-the-face-of-potential-tropical-system/)


Man, we need to avoid another Ian for a good while. We're almost 2 years out and still in recovery mode in places like Fort Myers Beach (gonna be at least 5 more years) and Matlacha. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2024, 11:25:26 AM

Saharan dust keeping this one at bay for now. Forecasters have no certainty at all.

(https://i.imgur.com/7W2LF5F.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2024, 11:31:13 AM

I know the heart of the season is about to start, but so far, not too bad.  Dust I guess.  Always something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2024, 11:32:27 AM

I once scanned over a proposal to "green the Sahara", it was interesting, expensive of course.  Idea was to use solar cells to generate RO water from the ocean and start planting and irrigating thinking it would induce long term stability, and greenery.  That would of course reduce dust a lot, and thus MIGHT ...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2024, 11:36:44 AM

Dust season is coming to a close soon, like mid-August. That's when I start thinking about plans and such.

I rode out Ian. I don't know that I want to do that again, despite the house being even more fortified than it was then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2024, 11:39:49 AM

The motel where we stay in North Port is four floors (Hampton Inn, about 5 years old).  They told me the hurricane got water from the adjacent canal up onto the roof and into the AC intakes.  The whole building was drowned.  They were still working on two floors when we came down in January 2022.  

The baseball facility was badly damaged, they were not sure they'd be ready for Spring Training, or us.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2024, 11:41:34 AM

In most cases I really hate the Saharan dust.  Turns the air quality to absolute shite.

But, it can make for pretty sunsets, and it can help minimize tropical activity.  So there is that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2024, 11:54:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 31, 2024, 11:39:49 AM

The motel where we stay in North Port is four floors (Hampton Inn, about 5 years old).  They told me the hurricane got water from the adjacent canal up onto the roof and into the AC intakes.  The whole building was drowned.  They were still working on two floors when we came down in January 2022. 

The baseball facility was badly damaged, they were not sure they'd be ready for Spring Training, or us.

Ian was September 28, 2022.

Something is also not right. There is no way there was 60 feet of storm surge - ever. Maybe the roof got damaged and the 12" of rain poured in.

Fort Myers Beach got the most storm surge, with 15-18 feet or so. We got none, being in the eye. Charlotte Harbor rose about 6 feet, which is what would drive that canal next to the Hampton.

(https://i.imgur.com/T781fJ4.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2024, 11:58:02 AM

My year is off by one, sorry.  The told me the wind "sucked up the water in the canal into the roof vents".  A lot of water damage was evident on the closed floors.

It was January 2023 when we were there after Ian.  I knew it was two camps ago, but my dates are wonky,.  You can see the canal in your overhead.

It might also be that the heavy rain swamped the roof vents.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2024, 12:33:37 PM

It was the rain. If there was a high enough surge (60' or more) to overtop that building, the entire state would be gone, including me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2024, 12:49:47 PM

What they said was the wind whipped the water out of the canal, not just some storm surge.  That might have been a pure guess as no one was present watching what happened, though one person told me she rode it out in the motel.  She said it was scary, there was water coming in from the ceiling everywhere.  The glass held up she said except for a couple windows.

It's a nice motel for a Hampton.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2024, 07:44:34 AM

They keep pushing this thing further West. Probably gonna be nothing more than a rainmaker.

(https://i.imgur.com/xldfDy6.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2024, 02:28:10 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/SDySOsn.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/7ecpzkC.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 01, 2024, 02:44:11 PM

European model looks like it's already drunk on Oktoberfest, American model doing its best to imitate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 01, 2024, 02:57:34 PM

What's that second image from, anyway?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2024, 03:03:12 PM

Wink News.

Tracking Invest 97L in the Caribbean, heads toward Gulf of Mexico this weekend (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/08/01/disturbance-approaching-gulf-of-mexico/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2024, 08:11:01 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/r7ABQbH.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/WLE3gKE.jpeg)

State of Emergency declared.

Invest 97L reaches 80% chance of formation (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/08/02/invest-97l-formation-chance/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2024, 08:53:45 AM

Hopefully no major winds and just rain.  Send it our way...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2024, 09:27:44 AM

We had unusual amounts of rain in July, and we're predicted to get us scattered by the 12th, probably not from this?  We're departing on the 10th for Sedona.

I'm hoping to see Canyon de Chelly, it's about a 4 hour drive out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2024, 11:04:43 AM

This will be interesting.


(https://i.imgur.com/x19PSJW.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2024, 11:18:01 AM

batten down the hatches

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2024, 11:23:59 AM

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4806281-climate-change-earth-systems-collapse-risk-study/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2024, 11:24:30 AM

Yep, later on we will be moving the lighter things on the lanai to inside. I think the furniture will be fine out there, up to 50 MPH winds or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2024, 12:30:06 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/C076cYf.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 02, 2024, 01:41:28 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 02, 2024, 08:53:45 AM

Hopefully no major winds and just rain.  Send it our way...

No. Because it has to go through me to get to you. We don’t need 10+ inches for you to get two. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2024, 01:52:32 PM

Quote from: Gigem on August 02, 2024, 01:41:28 PM

No. Because it has to go through me to get to you. We don’t need 10+ inches for you to get two.

Sometimes sacrifices must be made.  Good luck and God speed!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2024, 09:48:15 AM

How a shuttered power plant in Michigan could pave the way for more nuclear energy (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/03/how-a-shuttered-power-plant-in-michigan-could-pave-the-way-for-more-nuclear-energy.html)

• The Palisades Power Plant in Covert, Michigan, could become the first nuclear reactor to restart operations in U.S. history.
• The plant’s owner, Holtec International, aims to reopen the plant in late 2025, subject to review and approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
• Holtec has plans to expand the plant in 2030 with small modular reactors — a new technology that could speed deployment of nuclear power in the future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2024, 05:14:17 PM

This doesn't sound great...

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/andean-glacier-retreat-unprecedented-human-civilization-study-finds-2024-08-01/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2024, 07:20:13 AM

Getting whacked with heavy rain now. Will be pumping the pool down for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2024, 09:58:48 AM

Looks like another nice day here, the storm thing obviously is too far south to have any impact at the moment.

I don't recall seeing a storm track as varied as this one has generated.  Forecast for Sedona is high 90s and occasional rain chances.

I read a tourism story on Flagstaff saying it is pretty nice, will check it out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2024, 10:06:25 AM

another hot and humid day on the golf course

FORE!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2024, 10:49:55 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2024, 10:06:25 AM

another hot and humid day on the golf course

FORE!!!

Gettin' ready to head out myself. Hot and dry, though. We don't do humid here very often. 

Should be reaching about 90 by the time we're finishing up. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2024, 01:10:06 PM

Savannah and Hilton Head - 20-30" of rain. Wow, that will be really bad.

(https://i.imgur.com/z82xN1T.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2024, 01:56:15 PM

yikes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on August 04, 2024, 01:57:50 PM

Fires pretty bad west of Cody, east of Yellowstone.  My parents can't see the mountains outside their home in Cody.   I should upload the photos .

Haze of it has made it's way to Indiana.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2024, 08:54:30 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/0ZpE2VS.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2024, 10:50:53 AM

The Port of Los Angeles Has a Power Problem - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-port-of-los-angeles-has-a-power-problem-ae614e2f)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-port-of-los-angeles-has-a-power-problem-ae614e2f?st=rsdgx7ab315x20j&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2024, 01:30:05 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/uQmzb83.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2024, 01:34:19 PM

Still getting rain and wind from some of the trails of the outer bands on this one. This is one slow-moving storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/42z8tW8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 05, 2024, 01:47:00 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2024, 10:06:25 AM

another hot and humid day on the golf course

FORE!!!

Almost too hot for the suds - almost

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2024, 02:04:39 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 05, 2024, 01:47:00 PM

Almost too hot for the suds - almost

Perish the thought!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2024, 02:16:27 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 05, 2024, 01:47:00 PM

Almost too hot for the suds - almost

It did happen to me once about 2 years ago... Think the temps hit about 107. 

Just had to keep guzzling water until the round was over and we were back in the clubhouse, where we could drink a beer. Beer didn't even sound good to me while we were out there. 

(Of course we were walking the course--with a cart, beer would have been much more palatable.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2024, 02:21:58 PM

107 is good pilsner weather, but it's even better frozen margarita weather!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2024, 03:09:02 PM

GMZ856-052215-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
522 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TODAY...Tropical storm conditions possible. Southwest winds
25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet,
occasionally to 13 feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 9 feet at
7 seconds. Bay and inland waters very rough. Widespread showers
with isolated thunderstorms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2024, 09:13:19 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 05, 2024, 01:47:00 PM

Almost too hot for the suds - almost

went with Bud Light

plenty of water

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2024, 11:45:24 AM

SunPower files for bankruptcy, plans to sell assets — stock plummets (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/06/sunpower-files-for-bankruptcy-plans-to-sell-assets-stock-plummets.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 06, 2024, 01:42:33 PM

And now we have another one


(https://i.imgur.com/OttfAmZ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2024, 01:43:32 PM

That one could turn North toward Texas. Too soon to tell.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 06, 2024, 01:46:18 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2024, 01:43:32 PM

That one could turn North toward Texas. Too soon to tell.

its not forecast to so it probably will

maybe this one has utees name on it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2024, 01:47:45 PM

I have not looked at the pressure maps yet. Too early, but if there is a strong high to the North it will stay South.

(https://i.imgur.com/x5msyiq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2024, 01:57:42 PM

There's always a strong High over Texas in August.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2024, 02:21:32 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/P1V5uSJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2024, 02:47:58 PM

Just you wait

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2024, 02:14:54 PM

Looks like nothing for Texas with this one. It may turn into nothing for Mexico too.

(https://i.imgur.com/wt8PPZd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2024, 02:18:45 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2024, 02:14:54 PM

Looks like nothing for Texas with this one. It may turn into nothing for Mexico too.

[img width=500 height=368.996]https://i.imgur.com/wt8PPZd.png[/img]

That's what Beryl was supposed to do as well.  Until, it didn't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2024, 02:35:37 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 07, 2024, 02:18:45 PM

That's what Beryl was supposed to do as well.  Until, it didn't.

Yep, but that one was already well-defined as a CAT 4 sitting where this one is now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2024, 02:38:45 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2024, 02:35:37 PM

Yep, but that one was already well-defined as a CAT 4 sitting where this one is now.

Beryl's projected path moved 400 miles up the coast within the final 30 hours before landfall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2024, 03:13:00 PM

Yep. But this one is not organized and only has a slight chance to do so.

And there is some Sarahan dust on the way too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2024, 03:28:08 PM

We'll see.

My prediction?  It curls around in the Gulf and heads straight toward Tampa.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2024, 03:37:38 PM

That would suck.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 08, 2024, 08:24:50 AM

Southern Company profits soar 43% as customers feel pain of rate hikes
Extreme heat and rising electricity demand from data centers also boosted the company’s profits.

Profits at Southern Company — the parent of Georgia Power — rose to $1.2 billion in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of more than 43% compared to last year, as the company benefitted from a series of electricity rate increases, high temperatures and an influx of data centers to its service territories.

The company reported on Thursday that its earnings across the first half of the year are also up more than 35% compared to 2023, climbing from $1.7 billion to $2.3 billion. Operating revenues in the first six months of 2024 were $13.1 billion, an increase of more than 7% compared to the year prior

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2024, 08:28:11 AM

My bill last month was the highest it's ever been, by far, $283.  Last year in July it was 213, which had been the highest.  I think they tacked on because the two reactors finally came on line.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2024, 08:31:24 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 07, 2024, 03:28:08 PM

We'll see.

My prediction?  It curls around in the Gulf and heads straight toward Tampa.

It fell apart. But there's more out there. 30% chance and I don't like the direction of it.


(https://i.imgur.com/Qrf0w62.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2024, 08:33:12 AM

That "direction", to me, looks the same as most of them take, aside from the few that spawn off Mexico.  How's the dust situation?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 08, 2024, 08:33:29 AM

Green power is expensive but, saving the planet is worth it

my bill arrived this morning
Plenty of wind power in this one

(https://i.imgur.com/xhNcPAd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2024, 08:36:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 08, 2024, 08:33:12 AM

That "direction", to me, looks the same as most of them take, aside from the few that spawn off Mexico.  How's the dust situation?

Not much dust out there in the Atlantic, but some in the Gulf. That's what killed the last one.

This is about the time the dust stops. We are entering the teeth of the season soon (September).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 08, 2024, 03:00:47 PM

HOLDREGE, Neb. — A $5,000,000,000 fuel plant is coming to Nebraska.

DG Fuels selected Phelps County for its first Midwest location, as the aviation industry switches to more sustainable fuel sources to address the increasing demand for clean fuel.

The plant will have the capability to turn corn stovers into high-value fuel, providing an economic opportunity for local farmers.

The company says the plant will bring 650 new jobs to the area and pledges to invest millions into local communities. Ron Tillery, executive director of the Phelps County Development Corporation, says that he expects growth and development from this venture.


“A project of this scale is unprecedented in Phelps County," said Tillery."It’s gonna take a lot of work. We’ll pull commuters in from a pretty large distance for employment in this plant. So we’ve gotta be prepared to respond to the housing demand that’s going to be there. All of the other services that a plant and people need, we’re gonna have to take a look at too."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2024, 04:34:05 PM

40% chance with this one.

(https://i.imgur.com/0A7lzOz.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2024, 08:36:02 AM

I think that Carter era "coal gassification plan" in the Dakotas is still up and running, almost certainly at a loss, for no reason.

Home - Dakota Gasification Company (https://www.dakotagas.com/)

They claim CO2 capture now as well.  Yay.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 09, 2024, 11:47:25 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 05, 2024, 02:21:58 PM

107 is good pilsner weather, but it's even better frozen margarita weather!

you could always fall back into a PR position should you have change careers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2024, 09:48:32 PM

16 Nebraska communities being considered for advanced nuclear reactor sites

The Nebraska Public Power District is studying 16 Nebraska communities for feasibility of a potential nuclear power plant.

The Nebraska Department of Economic Development (DED) and NPPD announced Thursday that the 16 communities have been selected for 'Phase 2' of a study of a assessing project siting options for new advanced nuclear reactors.

The study is funded by $1 million that was allocated by the Nebraska Legislature to the Nebraska Department of Economic Development in 2022. The DED then awarded the funds to NPPD to conduct the study.

The sites are near the cities of Beatrice, Brownville, Fremont, Grand Island, Hallam, Hastings, Holdrege, Kearney, Lexington, Nebraska City, Norfolk, Plattsmouth, Rushville, Sutherland, Valentine, and Wauneta.

In Phase 1 of the study, the entire state was assessed for the best potential candidates to host an emerging nuclear technology known as a small modular reactor.

The study’s second phase includes a more in-depth technical evaluation and will involve detailed field environmental and constructability evaluations based on criteria used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Phase 2 will also include engagement with the communities listed as potentially feasible sites.

At the conclusion of Phase 2, the list will be shortened to approximately four sites. Local support will be a factor for a community to move past the second phase.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2024, 09:50:04 AM

I'm hoping this will be a fish storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/DtTKnK3.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2024, 09:58:35 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 08, 2024, 08:33:29 AM

Green power is expensive but, saving the planet is worth it

my bill arrived this morning
Plenty of wind power in this one

(https://i.imgur.com/xhNcPAd.png)

We'll find out how practicle it is but it's been above normal temps this summer mine was almost 78 bucks for August  July

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2024, 10:02:34 AM

At least mine was under 500... Just barely. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2024, 10:03:31 AM

$78 with a wife living there is impressive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2024, 10:04:37 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2024, 10:02:34 AM

At least mine was under 500... Just barely.

We average about $220 here. It's 93 and it feels like 105.

But yeah. You enjoy that perfect weather out there in Utopia.


:88:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2024, 10:07:31 AM

It's not heaven, it's Iowa

(https://i.imgur.com/fQbR55b.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2024, 10:14:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2024, 10:03:31 AM

$78 with a wife living there is impressive

Well I open the place up when doable like last nite, I have 2 Oaks and a Maple that provide much shade over the structure. But on days when the breeze stops a brick ranch can turn into an oven

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2024, 10:15:52 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2024, 10:04:37 AM

We average about $220 here. It's 93 and it feels like 105.

But yeah. You enjoy that perfect weather out there in Utopia.


:88:

It is pretty perfect...


(https://i.imgur.com/pchom2w.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2024, 10:21:39 AM

Nighttime lows are too cold, might as well be Canada.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2024, 04:20:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 10, 2024, 10:21:39 AM

Nighttime lows are too cold, might as well be Canada.

I do like the highs and no humidity. But yeah, I'd rather not wear a jacket at night. Florida it is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2024, 04:22:18 PM

This thing is going to develop. The good news is there is some dust out there that could weaken it. Also, a high is sitting above Florida and another one is further East. That could steer it North toward Bermuda or make it only a fish storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/rUtgQo2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2024, 08:42:02 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/BjHj2Hl.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2024, 09:05:22 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2024, 08:42:02 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/BjHj2Hl.png)

Great News!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2024, 01:53:12 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/SEGtnji.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2024, 06:31:41 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2024, 04:20:32 PM

I do like the highs and no humidity. But yeah, I'd rather not wear a jacket at night. Florida it is.

I haven't pulled a jacket yet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2024, 06:44:04 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2024, 04:20:32 PM

I do like the highs and no humidity. But yeah, I'd rather not wear a jacket at night. Florida it is.

You've spent the majority of your life in Chicago and Wisconsin, and an overnight low of 63 is jacket weather? 

PoA... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2024, 06:46:06 PM

Heavy jacket.  And when that sucker hits the 50s, parka time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2024, 07:35:15 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/0aCQZH2.png)

yup, will get close to 60 from 3am to 7am but, at 9pm it's still 65

I'm usually home by then.  Not out strollin around

unless of course I'm walkin the 3 blocks home from the bar.
That's all uphill and keeps me warm

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2024, 06:20:53 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2024, 06:44:04 PM

You've spent the majority of your life in Chicago and Wisconsin, and an overnight low of 63 is jacket weather?

PoA...

The blood has thinned out quickly. About to get even thinner, but oh well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2024, 07:19:32 AM

I'm looking forward to it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2024, 01:55:24 PM

They want us to eat bugs. 

Me:

"You first, John. Oh, and can I get a ride on that jet please? I mean, not with you abord."

https://twitter.com/wideawake_media/status/1823671295864611278?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1823671295864611278%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= (https://twitter.com/wideawake_media/status/1823671295864611278?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1823671295864611278|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2024, 02:21:04 PM

Mmmm

(https://i.imgur.com/hk6nqdZ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2024, 02:27:25 PM

been doing that on the plains of Nebraska for over a century!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2024, 02:28:29 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 14, 2024, 02:27:25 PM

been doing that on the plains of Nebraska for over a century!

Q: How do you identify the happy motorcyclist?
A: He's the one with bugs in his teeth. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2024, 02:29:27 PM

been there and done that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2024, 02:33:02 PM

I've eaten a lot of weird stuff in my life, but don't recall ever eating bugs.

Other than mudbugs, of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 14, 2024, 04:08:34 PM

Eh, crawfish seems to be something that is overly popular for no good reason.  Lots of work to peel them, not much food, and I can eat lots of things with more flavor with way less work.  But hey it's cool I guess.  Most of the time the chef way over seasons them.  

I can take them or leave them, but I hardly ever pick them for my own events.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2024, 05:47:18 PM

I love them but everyone has an opinion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 14, 2024, 07:01:59 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2024, 06:20:53 AM

The blood has thinned out quickly. About to get even thinner, but oh well.

I have to say I’ve been down here in Florida since 2016 and everyone keeps telling me my blood would thin and I will get cold easily. But it hasn’t happened yet.

Each year I go to Michigan multiple times to visit and for my annual trip, which is coming up or the holiday weekend.  Especially the evenings and mornings we never get here 

In fact, I was going to mention to you badge I bought a log cabin on the lake in Michigan for summer as once I retire and will be closing on the day after Labor Day.    Pumped!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2024, 07:47:18 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 14, 2024, 07:01:59 PM

I have to say I’ve been down here in Florida since 2016 and everyone keeps telling me my blood would thin and I will get cold easily. But it hasn’t happened yet.

IMHO it happens, but it might happen differently for different people. 

I was the guy growing up in Chicago that as soon as it hit 40 degrees in the spring, I was in shorts weather. Back then--and even now--I hate long sleeved shirts because I feel hot as hell. Pretty much any time I have to wear a long-sleeved t-shirt or sweater, I'm pulling the sleeves up within 10 min. I run hot. Always have, probably always will. 

That said, I've been in California (or the short stint in ATL) for over half of my life now. I do NOT have the same cold tolerance I had when I lived in the Midwest. I get cold far more easily than I did then. But I'm still in the situation where what Southern Californians call "cold" I call "comfortable". 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2024, 08:06:25 PM

Stay weird, California.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 14, 2024, 09:24:40 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2024, 07:47:18 PM

IMHO it happens, but it might happen differently for different people.

I was the guy growing up in Chicago that as soon as it hit 40 degrees in the spring, I was in shorts weather. Back then--and even now--I hate long sleeved shirts because I feel hot as hell. Pretty much any time I have to wear a long-sleeved t-shirt or sweater, I'm pulling the sleeves up within 10 min. I run hot. Always have, probably always will.

That said, I've been in California (or the short stint in ATL) for over half of my life now. I do NOT have the same cold tolerance I had when I lived in the Midwest. I get cold far more easily than I did then. But I'm still in the situation where what Southern Californians call "cold" I call "comfortable".

Ha, I always reply "it's gotta get down in the 30s before I start bitching." 

Shuts 'em right up. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2024, 09:01:17 AM

yup, anything about 40 is good by me

unless I'm golfing in shorts.... I prefer above 60

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2024, 10:32:45 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/qXW74kk.png)

for utee94

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on August 15, 2024, 10:40:19 AM

The day after HS graduation, me and a friend drove to San Antonio to work a construction job for the summer. (Family friend was the president of the company doing the work and he offered the job). 

The job involved tearing off and replacing roofing on aircraft hangers at Randolf AFB with some of it being Hot Tar. I had never worked at anything that hot in my life. 

At the end of summer, we went home as I had to leave a few days later for the start of FB camp in Iowa. We drove straight thru from SA to our little town in northern Ohio. When we arrived at about 6am and got out of the car, the temp was in the high 50's and I thought I would freeze to death. It had only taken 3 months to "thin my blood" or whatever you call it. 

But it also didn't take long to acclimate back to cooler temps. As such, I don't wear long pants until the temps hit below 30 and never wear long sleeves. Jackets are only worn below 40 deg and the coats don't come out until low 20s. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2024, 09:45:51 AM

https://twitter.com/newstart_2024/status/1824065689952399642?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1824065689952399642%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= (https://twitter.com/newstart_2024/status/1824065689952399642?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1824065689952399642|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2024, 02:11:53 PM

Bermuda gonna get smacked.

(https://i.imgur.com/Mij9Byu.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2024, 02:14:59 PM

Ernesto?  Is that thing still around???

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2024, 02:20:04 PM

Yep. Slow mover.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2024, 08:56:55 AM

I think I'll drive the sporty car to the golf course and drink some beer!


(https://i.imgur.com/BfGPqxH.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2024, 09:03:35 AM

This is one of those times where I wish I was up North.

AC has been out since Wednesday and the new system won't come until Monday.

It's a 4-year-old system! Don't ever buy Champion units. They would not honor the 10-year warranty. My lawyer has been in touch.

I went with Allied. They had good reviews.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 18, 2024, 09:01:24 PM

Lloyd’s Register (LR), CORE POWER, and AP Moller – Maersk will research on frameworks needed to establish nuclear container ship using a fourth-generation reactor.

The study will analyze requirements for updated safety rules along with the improved operational and regulatory understanding that is needed for the application of nuclear power in container shipping.

“Since Maersk launched its energy transition strategy in 2018, we have continuously explored diverse low emission energy options for our assets,” said Ole Graa Jakobsen, head of fleet technology, A.P. Moller – Maersk.

Jakobsen stated that nuclear power holds a number of challenges related to for example safety, waste management, and regulatory acceptance across regions, and so far, the downsides have clearly outweighed the benefits of the technology.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2024, 08:50:20 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2024, 09:03:35 AM

It's a 4-year-old system! Don't ever buy Champion units. They would not honor the 10-year warranty. My lawyer has been in touch.

Ouch.  I had to replace one of our heat pumps here, I went with Bosch.  I had an estimate from some other "famous" outfit at Costco that was a LOT more.

Our HVAC guy said the unit that was here was pretty much garbage, five years old, just out of warranty.  I forget the brand.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 10:51:46 AM

Quote

According to our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/), developers and power plant owners added 20.2 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale electric generating capacity in the United States during the first half of 2024. This new capacity is 3.6 GW (21%) more than the capacity added during the first six months of 2023. Based on the most recently reported data, developers and owners expect to add another 42.6 GW of capacity in the second half of the year.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62864

(https://i.imgur.com/NVw7LU7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2024, 11:42:23 AM

A thing about wind and solar numbers, they generally reflect peak output, under ideal conditions.  Things like nuclear run at near 100% all the time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 12:32:12 PM

Sure, I'm assuming this estimates max capacity for wind and solar.

But it's a relative comparison between wind and solar buildouts over time, so the point is that buildout of renewables has been increasing in 1H2024 and is planned to increase quite a bit more over 2H2024.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2024, 12:39:18 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/cP5SihP.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2024, 12:54:47 PM

New AC system being installed NOW.

Been a rough 5 days here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 01:21:35 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2024, 12:54:47 PM

New AC system being installed NOW.

Been a rough 5 days here.

that will put a dent in your bank account
one of the joys of home ownership

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2024, 01:29:47 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 01:21:35 PM

that will put a dent in your bank account
one of the joys of home ownership

The "old" system was installed in November 2020. If failed, and the company is NOT honoring its 10-year warranty. Needless to say, my attorney is on it.

I went with Lennox.

Do not EVER buy Champion. They SUCK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 01:54:38 PM

We have two AC/furnace units, they're original to the house built in 2007 so I'm dreading the day it's time to replace them.  I've already replaced the 2 water heaters.

(As an aside, why do people call them "hot water heaters?"  If anything, in mid-August they're "tepid water heaters" and in January they're "cold water heaters.")

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2024, 02:01:37 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 01:54:38 PM

(As an aside, why do people call them "hot water heaters?"  If anything, in mid-August they're "tepid water heaters" and in January they're "cold water heaters.")

I don't know. But that reminds me, I need to stop by the ATM machine. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 04:04:10 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 01:54:38 PM

We have two AC/furnace units, they're original to the house built in 2007 so I'm dreading the day it's time to replace them.  I've already replaced the 2 water heaters.

(As an aside, why do people call them "hot water heaters?"  If anything, in mid-August they're "tepid water heaters" and in January they're "cold water heaters.")

If they were installed in 2007 youve been very lucky mine were installed -n 1991 and went belly up in 2007 and 2015

cost about $14,000 together so save those bucks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 04:12:26 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 04:04:10 PM

If they were installed in 2007 youve been very lucky mine were installed -n 1991 and went belly up in 2007 and 2015

cost about $14,000 together so save those bucks

They've gone up considerably in the past 4 years, like everything else.

Current estimated cost to replace is $10,500 per, so $21,000 total.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 04:59:22 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 04:12:26 PM

They've gone up considerably in the past 4 years, like everything else.

Current estimated cost to replace is $10,500 per, so $21,000 total.

amazing

wait till you have to replace the roof.  Ours was replaced last April after being 33 years old

at a cost of $15,000.  Insurance co told us to replace it or they wouldnt cover it so..........

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2024, 05:01:10 PM

I put a metal roof on 20+ years ago

much less than $10,000

I'll get at least another 20+ years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 05:02:30 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 04:59:22 PM

amazing

wait till you have to replace the roof.  Ours was replaced last April after being 33 years old

at a cost of $15,000.  Insurance co told us to replace it or they wouldnt cover it so..........

Just got our roof replaced last year.  $21,000.

Fortunately insurance paid for it.

One of the very few perks to living in Austin, is that we're guaranteed a hail storm that will completely total our roofs about once every 10-12 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 05:04:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 19, 2024, 05:01:10 PM

I put a metal roof on 20+ years ago

much less than $10,000

I'll get at least another 20+ years

That was not an option because of deed restrictions although Im not sure Id want a metal roof.  Isnt ir pretty loud when it rains?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 05:06:23 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 05:02:30 PM

Just got our roof replaced last year.  $21,000.

Fortunately insurance paid for it.

One of the very few perks to living in Austin, is that we're guaranteed a hail storm that will completely total our roofs about once every 10-12 years.

Never got one bad enough to ruin my roof.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2024, 05:12:05 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 05:04:10 PM

That was not an option because of deed restrictions although Im not sure Id want a metal roof.  Isnt ir pretty loud when it rains?

it's not crazy loud.  You get used to it.
hail on it is plenty loud, but no damage

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 05:25:00 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 05:06:23 PM

Never got one bad enough to ruin my roof.

We get really, really bad hailstorms here.  And not enough rain.  Nobody should ever move here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 05:33:10 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 05:25:00 PM

We get really, really bad hailstorms here.  And not enough rain.  Nobody should ever move here.

unless youre a roofer

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2024, 06:39:21 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 05:02:30 PM

Just got our roof replaced last year.  $21,000.

Fortunately insurance paid for it.

One of the very few perks to living in Austin, is that we're guaranteed a hail storm that will completely total our roofs about once every 10-12 years.

How bad are the insurance costs if that's the case? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2024, 06:54:24 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2024, 06:39:21 PM

How bad are the insurance costs if that's the case?

Probably really high, but it hasn't increased significantly in my 24 years of homeownership so it's just part of the cost of living. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 19, 2024, 07:17:55 PM

Quote from: utee94 on Today at 05:02:30 PM (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/weather-climate-and-environment/msg623942/#msg623942)

Quote

One of the very few perks to living in Austin, is that we're guaranteed a hail storm that will completely total our roofs about once every 10-12 years

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 19, 2024, 05:06:23 PM

Never got one bad enough to ruin my roof.

Same here but acorns from the Northern Pin Oak and Red Oak not far from the house make it sound like a bowling alley on a windy nights in the fall

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2024, 06:17:13 AM

I just spent $61,200 on my new roof.

AC was $9,250.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2024, 08:51:51 AM

hah, my car cost more than those 2 combined

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2024, 09:01:07 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2024, 06:17:13 AM

I just spent $61,200 on my new roof.

AC was $9,250.

Where the Hell do you live, Windsor Castle?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2024, 09:23:22 AM

We're in a cooler spell, relatively, highs in the 80s the rest of the week forecast, then low 90s.  Yesterday was very pleasant outside, and we had an event at the botanical garden that was excellent.  I'm not usually a fan of such events, but this one was superb, I thought, and we wondered about after with very few folks present.  I learned a lot about all this stuff they do in the background, and about the expansion plans, which looks awesome.  

(https://i.imgur.com/NDTymKM.jpeg)



(https://i.imgur.com/j8mKvpn.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 20, 2024, 09:28:17 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2024, 06:17:13 AM

I just spent $61,200 on my new roof.

AC was $9,250.

Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2024, 08:51:51 AM

hah, my car cost more than those 2 combined

Did you bastages work for the military indusrial complex?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2024, 09:37:15 AM

I paid for a new roof in Cincy way back, it was something like $12 K on a 3500 sf house.  I'd guess that was in 2000 or so.  Dimensional shingles some repairs to the underage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2024, 01:31:34 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2024, 09:01:07 AM

Where the Hell do you live, Windsor Castle?

In 2020, the same company quoted me $38,000 for a new roof.

Inflation and demand happened.

We are not allowed to use shingles or metal here.

Several boards replaced, new dry-in, flat concrete (not barrel - yuck) tile roof, 3 roof vents, additional tie down reinforcement, and structural engineer certification.

All of that got me to current hurricane code, which lowered my hurricane insurance to the lowest level possible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2024, 06:11:37 PM

boats are expensive

I took up golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 20, 2024, 06:26:49 PM

Went from steamy high80s low90s all summer until Sunday,today the high was 69° along the lake. Lowest high on this date since 2004.Tonite 40s away from the lake in some places.It's like October - sunny w/blue skies though

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on August 20, 2024, 06:28:23 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2024, 06:11:37 PM

boats are expensive

I took up golf

ya but you can eat fish more often,not sure what flops around in the puddles out there where the buses don't run. And around here perhaps a dozens of courses have been gobbled up by developers so prices have climbed on the duffing front

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2024, 06:36:34 AM

Forecast high here today is 82°F and low RH. really nice day for August.

I see it's 54°F in Cincy right now, so I'd guess the eastern part of the US is under a frost warning, almost.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2024, 09:01:41 AM

Gonna hit 105 here.  Our mild summer has come to an end.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2024, 07:41:36 AM

GOP's climate change denial and its impact (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/opinion/4836972-republican-climate-denial/)

Basically, he says if we elect Trump, we're all doomed.  No comment about China and India.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2024, 08:42:13 AM

if we elect Kamala we're all doomed

she doesn't have a plan

no one has a plan

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2024, 08:47:58 AM

The "plan" obviously is to throw money at it, see the hailed "climate" bill that Biden signed,  that now, suddenly, is not nearly enough!  (It was laughable on day one.)

We need to DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2024, 08:57:06 AM

doing something like, ...........

keeping Trump out of the white house

and then.................?????

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2024, 08:57:49 AM

67 degrees in the house this morning

sweat pants and sweatshirt with coffee

starting to feel like football

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2024, 09:01:06 AM

108 degrees at my place yesterday.  Good solid football weather.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 22, 2024, 09:24:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2024, 07:41:36 AM

GOP's climate change denial and its impact (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/opinion/4836972-republican-climate-denial/)

Basically, he says if we elect Trump, we're all doomed.  No comment about China and India.

One party says they're going to do nothing and will do... nothing.

The other party says it's critical that we do something, and fast, and will do... next to nothing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2024, 09:26:15 AM

they will do next to nothing while lining the pockets of their buddies

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2024, 09:28:01 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 22, 2024, 09:24:33 AM

One party says they're going to do nothing and will do... nothing.

The other party says it's critical that we do something, and fast, and will do... next to nothing.

This is my view as well, obviously.  The thing is, option 2 does mean spending a lot of money, comparatively, and pretty much wastefully nearly as I can discern.  Tax credits for wealthy folks and companies, etc.  It's wealthier folks buying EVs today, not poorer folks, and getting the $7500.  

The CORE issue, for me, is that if anyone looks hard at the data, which is readily available, it becomes depressingly clear that "we" cannot do much of anything to hinder climate change IF the models are roughly correct.

I do fear the models COULD be off in the bad direction.  I know they are off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2024, 09:18:56 AM

Wink touched on this yesterday. It's good news for us.

No one can figure out why the Atlantic Ocean is cooling at record speed (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/no-one-can-figure-out-why-the-atlantic-ocean-is-cooling-at-record-speed/ar-AA1pcupU)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2024, 08:26:25 AM

I opened up the condo this morning, it's 63°F, "football weather", and the local "team" is playing in Ireland.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2024, 05:15:52 PM

Unusual La Niña may be forming in the Atlantic: ‘almost unprecedented’ (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4842319-unusual-la-nina-may-be-forming-in-the-atlantic-almost-unprecedented/?tbref=hp)

This is inexplicable, to me.  Or by me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2024, 05:27:29 PM

Atlantic Niña on the verge of developing. Here's why we should pay attention. | NOAA Climate.gov (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2024, 05:28:56 PM

I've had a creeping hunch for some time that our "models" really are not predictive, for various reasons.  And no, I'm not a denier, I just think our climate is so complex as to defy any real ability to model it very well.  The models are based on what happened in the past, and then force fit with various forcing factors to get "the right answer", which is a long way from predicting a thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 06:46:17 AM

What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)? (noaa.gov) (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/amoc.html)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on August 26, 2024, 06:55:04 AM

Being peak hurricane season and given decades of Global Warming with several hottest years in a row you'd think hurricanes would be lined up on Florida like cars on the Santa Monica freeway at rush hour. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 06:57:53 AM

The two unpredictable things, I think, are dust and this weird cooling trend in the ocean, which is unexplained (do far), no one seems even to  have an hypothesis.

I think our climate is far more complex than anyone can effectively model.

The circulation process begins as warm water near the surface moves toward the poles (such as the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic), where it cools and forms sea ice. As this ice forms, salt is left behind in the ocean water. Due to the large amount of salt in the water, it becomes denser, sinks down, and is carried southwards in the depths below. Eventually, the water gets pulled back up towards the surface and warms up in a process called upwelling (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html), completing the cycle.

The entire circulation cycle of the AMOC, and the global conveyor belt, is quite slow. It takes an estimated 1,000 years for a parcel (any given cubic meter) of water to complete its journey along the belt. Even though the whole process is slow on its own, there is some evidence that the AMOC is slowing down further. NOAA funds research (https://cpo.noaa.gov/Meet-the-Divisions/Earth-System-Science-and-Modeling/CVP/Funded-Projects) to better understand this potential slowing, as well as to investigate the AMOC’s role in coastal sea level changes and its relationship to extreme events.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2024, 09:02:55 AM

Hmm. The climate changes.

I'm shocked to hear this news.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 09:10:57 AM

If climate change is in part due to our actions, it's worth noting, I think.  I tried to read various and sundry about the models, it's not easy for me.  They have to be based on past observations of things like "global T" (which is difficult to measure).  The very simple calculation of how much that should increase with CO2 levels doesn't  give one much of a factor, it's a tenth of a degree or so as I recall, but then they add "forcing factors" to "fit" the past history.  Then they modify as needed with new data, it's always adjusting for more recent inputs, it has to be that way.

OK, fine, but that isn't really the best way to model a thing.  There is no other way with climate. If a model is off a bit with new data, "they" adjust some forcing factor to correct it, so the models are "always right".  Whether they are predictive or not is a clear concern.

Forcing factors include things like the impact of cloud cover, changes in albedo due to ice melting, ocean factors, stuff in the stratosphere, you name it.  This is why we have 4-5-6-7 more or less accepted models, when there should be only one, ideally.

I am NOT a "denier", in the simplest sense, I'm just very dubious about these models.  Things well could be WORSE.

And then we get back to my core point that 'we", humanity", aren't doing anything like near enough to temper this thing.  And we can't.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2024, 09:22:06 AM

I'm just happy about the possibility that hurricanes could be lessened this year.

I saw this story about the cooler Atlantic last week on Wink News.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2024, 09:54:01 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/6IWyKiQ.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 10:07:00 AM

if the Atlantic cools, that would help the world as a whole not warm as much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 10:48:09 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 10:07:00 AM

if the Atlantic cools, that would help the world as a whole not warm as much

Maybe, I doubt it.  The cooling has to mean somewhere else is warming in an isolated system.  The heat has to be going somewhere else, for some reason not understood.

My GUESS is the only way this could happen is some change in ocean currents, perhaps an upwelling from the depths for some reason.  The bottom of the oceans is always at 4°C, so it's cold down there.  If that cold water is cycling higher, for whatever reason, it means the depths would be soaking up the heat, and getting slightly warmer.

Or it might be a change in currents nearer the surface, but the heat has to go somewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2024, 02:58:40 PM

'The tropics are broken:' So where are all the Atlantic hurricanes? (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-tropics-are-broken-so-where-are-all-the-atlantic-hurricanes/ar-AA1pta9O?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=d80f6dabd65d400aaecde5771e53984c&ei=11#image=2)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 03:04:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 10:48:09 AM

My GUESS is the only way this could happen is some change in ocean currents, perhaps an upwelling from the depths for some reason.  The bottom of the oceans is always at 4°C, so it's cold down there.  If that cold water is cycling higher, for whatever reason, it means the depths would be soaking up the heat, and getting slightly warmer.

I'd think if the depths soaked up some of the earth's heat, that could be a positive 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2024, 03:05:41 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 03:04:45 PM

I'd think if the depths soaked up some of the earth's heat, that could be a positive

Depends. It could be bad for marine life - especially coral.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 03:14:10 PM

not at the depths I'm thinkin bout

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 03:31:46 PM

The "depths down miles harbor little life at all.  I am stumped on how novel heat exchange could happen suddenly between near surface layers and a mile+ down.

Water is at its densest ay 4°C, so the bottom layer will always be at that T in a very deep pool.  Fortunately, it doesn't freeze.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2024, 03:39:03 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 03:04:45 PM

I'd think if the depths soaked up some of the earth's heat, that could be a positive

As CD points out, we simply don't really know. Models can't predict everything. There could be negative feedback loops that we don't know about that will make all this CO2 getting thrown into the air a nothingburger. There could be positive feedback loops that we don't know about that will be catastrophic. I think the Earth has trended mostly towards stability (or life wouldn't have had an opportunity to evolve), but we know there are 5 known mass extinction events in history where it didn't. 

To me, it's highly interesting when all of a sudden we have some new phenomena occurring and the scientists are all scratching their heads and don't know why. It means the world is going to figure it out and learn something new. And hopefully it's something good. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 03:56:56 PM

Atlantic Niña on the verge of developing. Here's why we should pay attention. | NOAA Climate.gov (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention)

This summer cooling is because of winds that act on the ocean surface. Earth has a year-round rainfall band around the tropics. Driven by stronger solar heating, this rainfall band migrates northward during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The regular rainstorms draw in air from the southeast over the equatorial Atlantic. 

These steady southeasterly winds are strong enough to drag surface waters away from the equator, which brings relatively cold water from deeper ocean layers to the surface. This process, known as equatorial upwelling, forms a tongue of relatively cold water along the equatorial Atlantic during the summer months. 

Only south of 5 degrees South were the southeasterly trade winds stronger than usual. As of now, these atmosphere-ocean conditions, apparently unfavorable for the developing Atlantic Niña event, are quite perplexing. We will need to dig deeper to reveal the exact causes of this seemingly unusual event. 

One might think that a temperature difference of ±0.5 degrees Celsius (± 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in the tropical Atlantic does not seem like a big deal, but this difference can have a huge impact on rainfall over the surrounding continents. Reduced rainfall over the Sahel region, increased rainfall over the Gulf of Guinea, and seasonal shifts of the rainy season in northeastern South America have all been attributed to Atlantic Niño events. 

Plus, Atlantic Niños have been shown to increase the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing near the Cape Verde islands. NOAA’s seasonal forecast of above-normal 2024 hurricane activity (https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/highly-active-hurricane-season-likely-to-continue-in-atlantic) is based in part* on expected La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific and warm ocean temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. It will be interesting to monitor whether this Atlantic Niña fully develops, and if so, whether it has a dampening effect on hurricane activity as the season progresses. [Edited on August 22, 2024, to add "in part".] 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2024, 04:03:22 PM

La Nina is historically miserable for our rain chances here in Texico and even this recent El Nino brought us pretty much nothing.

Might be time to move.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 04:06:05 PM

to florida

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2024, 04:08:27 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 04:06:05 PM

to florida

Yup I'm moving in right next door to badge

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 07:43:51 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/26/exxon-still-sees-fossil-fuels-as-majority-of-energy-market-in-25-years.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 07:59:19 PM

so do the Chinese

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2024, 08:39:09 PM

Quote from: utee94 on August 26, 2024, 04:08:27 PM

Yup I'm moving in right next door to badge

That would be great. You didn't take my phone call last night, bastage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 08:47:18 PM

I didn't either
sorry
Was on the phone with someone and then it got late for folks on the East Coast

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on August 26, 2024, 10:59:36 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 26, 2024, 07:43:51 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/26/exxon-still-sees-fossil-fuels-as-majority-of-energy-market-in-25-years.html

of course it will be.

concrete, steel, ammonia and plastic.     Not to go Vaclav Smil on you CD but unless we want/will have a civilization without these four components, we'll never ween off fossil fuels, forget moving to 'EVs' from ICE.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2024, 11:12:30 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 26, 2024, 08:47:18 PM

I didn't either
sorry
Was on the phone with someone and then it got late for folks on the East Coast

Yeah sorry, I'll ring you back tomorrow.  I was in the middle of something and then I had movie night with the kids.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2024, 07:11:22 AM

A lot of folks seem under an illusion that "net zero" by 2050 is realistic.  It very clearly is not, it's political pandering, nothing else.  It sounds good, I suppose, but has no substance behind it, no enablement.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2024, 08:10:22 AM

It doesn't sound good. It sounds stupid.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2024, 08:13:46 AM

Most folks don't bother to look into any numbers, or details, they just worry about climate change and think voting this way or that means we'll be able to limit it.

It's an effective sound bite.  Stop the oceans from rising etc.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2024, 08:23:43 AM

20% chance.

(https://i.imgur.com/y21ZypG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2024, 08:42:52 AM

we should also stop hurricanes

they are very dangerous and destructive

______________________________

if I wanted to be the governor of Florida
I'd run on that promise

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 27, 2024, 09:05:40 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 26, 2024, 04:03:22 PM

La Nina is historically miserable for our rain chances here in Texico and even this recent El Nino brought us pretty much nothing.

Might be time to move.

Rained its ass off here. Still raining. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2024, 09:14:11 AM

All parts of Texas not near Houston, I suppose I should specify.  But it always rains in Houston anyway.

This has been the crappiest El Nino I can ever recall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2024, 10:49:20 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2024, 08:10:22 AM

It doesn't sound good. It sounds stupid.

It's simple:

• If you think climate change is basically a nothingburger, then it sounds stupid.
• If you think climate change is bad and potentially catastrophic, then it sounds good.

It's all about your priors.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2024, 11:02:25 AM

It's stupid because none of it is possible.

Look over here:

(https://i.imgur.com/bVfbRAd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2024, 11:04:34 AM

it's stupid because even if we throw more money at it.
We won't reach the goals here in the US of A

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2024, 11:16:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2024, 11:02:25 AM

It's stupid because none of it is possible.

Look over here:

(https://i.imgur.com/bVfbRAd.png)

Oh, of course it's not possible. I was going from the premise that CD meant it sounds good, but there's no chance that we're going to do it. 

Politicians promising something 26 years away when they're mostly going to be out of office and/or dead. There's no accountability so they can say something that sounds good with no intention of delivering. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on August 27, 2024, 11:22:48 AM

Quote from: utee94 on August 27, 2024, 09:14:11 AM

All parts of Texas not near Houston, I suppose I should specify.  But it always rains in Houston anyway.

This has been the crappiest El Nino I can ever recall.

It's true that we get a lot of rain here in the Houston area, but this is by far the wettest summer I can recall over the last 10-20 years.  We are usually bone dry from May-September.  I bet we've had 20" or more since July.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2024, 08:22:50 AM

Not much a chance for development.

Conditions are still good to inhibit storms. Hopefully that trend continues. We are entering the teeth of the season - September.

(https://i.imgur.com/MsldR51.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2024, 10:38:49 AM

China's new facility, slated to be operational by 2025, is poised to revolutionize global energy with advanced technology that promises a safer and greener nuclear power industry.

Instead of using uranium, this plant will harness thorium as its fuel. The reactor is designed to forgo traditional water cooling, utilizing liquid salt or carbon dioxide for heat transfer and electricity generation.

Unlike uranium reactors, which rely on solid fuels, thorium reactors employ a safer liquid fuel that operates at normal pressure, offering several environmental and safety advantages.

One key benefit of thorium is its abundance, which alleviates concerns about potential shortages associated with uranium, the conventional reactor fuel.


https://ogv.energy/news-item/china-to-launch-world-s-first-thorium-molten-salt-nuclear-power-station-in-2025 (https://ogv.energy/news-item/china-to-launch-world-s-first-thorium-molten-salt-nuclear-power-station-in-2025)

Thorium, a naturally occurring radioactive element, has long been recognized for its potential as a nuclear fuel.

Compared to uranium-based reactors, thorium reactors offer enhanced safety features and produce less long-term nuclear waste.

The specialized salt reactor design optimizes these benefits, ensuring efficient heat transfer and stable operation.

China’s development of a thorium-based salt nuclear power plant underscores its commitment to advancing energy technology and addressing environmental challenges tied to fossil fuels.

As the world focuses on reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change, exploring alternative energy sources like thorium-based nuclear power becomes increasingly critical.


A standout feature of thorium reactors is their passive safety systems.

Unlike uranium reactors, which use solid fuel rods, thorium reactors operate with a liquid fuel mixture at normal pressure, significantly reducing the risk of meltdowns and other catastrophic events.

These reactors also produce less toxic and shorter-lived radioactive waste, simplifying long-term disposal challenges.

The thorium molten salt reactor aligns with China’s strategy to diversify energy sources and enhance energy security.

This project complements China’s carbon-neutral goals, highlighting its leadership in global climate change initiatives.


Geopolitical Impact
Beyond environmental benefits, the thorium molten salt reactor carries significant geopolitical implications.

As countries compete for energy security in a world shaped by shifting populism and nationalism, new strategic alliances may emerge around nuclear advancements.

China’s launch of this thorium reactor will set a new standard for countries exploring alternative nuclear energy, laying the foundation for a future defined by cleaner, safer, and more efficient energy sources.

While the world watches China's progress with cautious optimism, questions remain about the technological and social implications of this new nuclear paradigm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2024, 08:01:25 AM

I'll be on the golf course

(https://i.imgur.com/3Q8DLfC.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2024, 08:03:36 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/DF1iOnx.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2024, 08:22:17 AM

This is about the time things start to gear up in the Atlantic.

Tropical development now at 40% chance of forming (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/08/29/tropical-development-50-chance-forming/)

We should probably be OK for right now, in Florida.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2024, 08:33:30 AM

Help is out there.

(https://i.imgur.com/EokSfUL.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/pE8kaIr.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2024, 09:21:42 AM

The hurricane forecasts seem to me to be, well, not very reliable, too many disparate factors involved.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 30, 2024, 10:15:23 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2024, 09:21:42 AM

The hurricane forecasts seem to me to be, well, not very reliable, too many disparate factors involved.

Yeah, but it gives Badge something to do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9MgbexiVkA

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2024, 10:17:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2024, 09:21:42 AM

The hurricane forecasts seem to me to be, well, not very reliable, too many disparate factors involved.

If you read the article referenced above, it says just that. Until the storm develops, it's almost impossible to predict the path.

Once they form, they are very predictable. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2024, 10:19:45 AM

I was thinking about the forecast of frequency made in May or whenever, not as much the path.  We had that very early one this year and some said it would be an avalanche of sequels, which has not yet happened.  There are too many factors involved, I think.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2024, 10:20:25 AM

Dust and wind shear have dominated this season.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2024, 12:37:40 PM

A ‘clean energy’ disaster looms off our coasts (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4851773-offshore-wind-turbines-environmental-risks/)

Not a pretty picture if true, giant windmills failing offshore and cluttering the works.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2024, 07:39:52 AM

FACT OF THE DAY:

Afghan poppy farmers have switched to solar power to run their irrigation systems. This has significantly increased the world's supply of heroin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2024, 03:17:20 PM

So dumb on this one.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/court-rulings-oil-and-gas-permits-deborah-boardman-climate-ferc-26247bb1?st=btbn6ks5bxldp4u&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2024, 03:26:21 PM

Some people won't like this paper out of Norway.

https://twitter.com/OwenGregorian/status/1830949795545878822?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1830949795545878822%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= (https://twitter.com/OwenGregorian/status/1830949795545878822?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1830949795545878822|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2024, 08:26:13 AM

CarbonCapture Inc., which had wanted to build one of the world’s largest direct air capture of carbon dioxide and storage projects in southwestern Wyoming, is pulling the plug on development of the complex in the Cowboy State.

“We’ve been seeing growing competition for clean power amongst industries that are emerging much faster than anybody would have ever predicted,” said Adrian Corless, CEO of CarbonCapture, a Los Angeles-based clean technology company.

CarbonCapture cited “intense competition from data centers” in the region for electricity as partially the reason why it is moving from Wyoming.


“This has acutely affected our efforts in Wyoming, and as a result, we’ve decided to pause our development of Project Bison and to relocate the deployment of our first-of-a-kind project outside the state,” Corless said.

A new location will be announced in coming months, Corless said.

The clean power requirements for Project Bison were said to be a main reason for the move, possibly requiring as much as three times what could be generated by the 345-megawatt Natrium nuclear reactor being built in Kemmerer, Wyoming, by the billionaire Bill Gates-backed TerraPower LLC.

A CarbonCapture spokeswoman declined to respond to questions regarding the project.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 04, 2024, 10:08:07 AM

Got some stuff going on out there, but nothing likely to form.

Peak season is September 10.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 04, 2024, 10:08:24 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Xf1Ke7y.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2024, 11:05:12 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 04, 2024, 08:26:13 AM

CarbonCapture Inc., which had wanted to build one of the world’s largest direct air capture of carbon dioxide and storage projects in southwestern Wyoming, is pulling the plug on development of the complex in the Cowboy State.

“We’ve been seeing growing competition for clean power amongst industries that are emerging much faster than anybody would have ever predicted,” said Adrian Corless, CEO of CarbonCapture, a Los Angeles-based clean technology company.

CarbonCapture cited “intense competition from data centers” in the region for electricity as partially the reason why it is moving from Wyoming.


“This has acutely affected our efforts in Wyoming, and as a result, we’ve decided to pause our development of Project Bison and to relocate the deployment of our first-of-a-kind project outside the state,” Corless said.

A new location will be announced in coming months, Corless said.

The clean power requirements for Project Bison were said to be a main reason for the move, possibly requiring as much as three times what could be generated by the 345-megawatt Natrium nuclear reactor being built in Kemmerer, Wyoming, by the billionaire Bill Gates-backed TerraPower LLC.

A CarbonCapture spokeswoman declined to respond to questions regarding the project.

Makes sense. Carbon capture is incredibly energy-intensive. It's kinda dumb if you're using electricity generated by burning stuff and causing emissions to... pull emissions out of the air. So you want to site your carbon capture plant somewhere that you can have a zero-emission or very low emission electricity source. 

But the big technology companies are ALSO trying to build data centers in close proximity to zero-emission / very low emission electricity sources so they can boast about how green and environmentally responsible those data centers are... Data centers which (last I saw estimates of this) take somewhere in between 1.2-1.5% of the entire world's electricity at this point, and their share is growing. 

Lots of competition for cheap land and clean power these days. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on September 04, 2024, 09:01:53 PM

This is cool.

https://www.wthr.com/article/news/local/purdues-talking-concrete-technology-recognized-as-national-standard-luna-lu-roads/531-717ead7b-faab-45b0-8447-d586001fe6a1

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 04, 2024, 10:21:54 PM

What are the best and worst solutions that have ever been proposed with regards to climate change? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 05, 2024, 07:26:20 AM

Marcus, 

Been getting any rain up around Austin this week?  Radar looked like a good amount was hitting you. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 05, 2024, 08:20:29 AM

We've had about 0.5" from it, which is better than nothing of course.

Some >4" totals out in the hill country which is good for the lakes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 05, 2024, 08:26:01 AM

It's been really dry in Columbus too. I even watered the lawn a few times, mostly to keep it from dying. But less than half the normal rain amount in August.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2024, 09:49:51 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 04, 2024, 10:21:54 PM

What are the best and worst solutions that have ever been proposed with regards to climate change?

Yes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2024, 09:50:29 AM

We have had record rainfall here this summer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 05, 2024, 09:58:03 AM

braggart

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2024, 10:08:34 AM

Been hard to take the boat out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2024, 10:30:54 AM

Pretty nuts out there right now. Nothing to worry about really.

(https://i.imgur.com/ehzfk7Y.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 05, 2024, 05:20:23 PM

been tough getting the Vette out as well

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 05, 2024, 05:27:49 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 05, 2024, 05:20:23 PM

been tough getting the Vette out as well

I hear you. We don't have rain, but holy $^@& has it been HOT. I'm not driving the Jeep when it's 100+. 

Need this heat to break. My last electric bill was $574 :a102:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2024, 11:16:24 AM

We have 1,750 SF of space that we keep at 76. AC runs constantly.

Never paid more than $275 in a month.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2024, 12:48:00 PM

We're at around 2300 sf on three levels with two heat pumps, annual average is $148.50 for electricity (there is no gas).  We have two exposed walls and a lot of glass there.  My last bill was $183.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2024, 02:18:39 PM

We're fully exposed so there is no break on that one. It gets hot here very early and stays very late. We have not been under 80 at night but maybe 5 times since June 1.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2024, 02:36:56 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2024, 11:16:24 AM

We have 1,750 SF of space that we keep at 76. AC runs constantly.

Never paid more than $275 in a month.

Our issue is that the house was built in the early '70s, and has basically anything original that's still working because the landlord is a cheapskate. I actually just had to get a toilet leak fixed and realized our toilet was manufactured in 1973. 

So, original (single pane, drafty) windows. Original insulation, if they bothered to put any in at all. Probably original a/c unit; if not it's still not some new efficient model. 

So the house is about as inefficient as any that you've ever seen. We've got 5 refrigerators, I work from home so I use a fair bit of electricity during the day, so even our baseline winter costs run about $100. 

And then you add on high California electricity prices and a heat wave, and it spikes like crazy during about 2 1/2 months during the summer. 

At least I don't heat the house at all during the winter. That's one nice thing about California. Never gets cold enough even in this drafty house to do that. So my winter natural gas bill barely moves compared to summer. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2024, 02:41:21 PM

Yeah, no heat here in the "Winter" months for us. I can count on one hand the number of times we've used it. We don't have gas here so heat is really expensive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 06, 2024, 03:07:21 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2024, 02:18:39 PM

We're fully exposed so there is no break on that one. It gets hot here very early and stays very late. We have not been under 80 at night but maybe 5 times since June 1.

We've got low 60s overnight coming up, and even one low of 58 Sunday night into Monday morning.  This is California-cold, gonna need to dig out my heavy coat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on September 06, 2024, 03:19:06 PM

86 and sunny today

66 and rain tomorrow, low is 41.  That's the football weather I live for

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2024, 03:22:34 PM

I don't miss those huge swings where you go from heat in the morning to AC in the afternoon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 06, 2024, 03:30:22 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/v4suyTJ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on September 06, 2024, 03:53:56 PM

Texas better bring their heaters

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 06, 2024, 04:00:35 PM

I run in temps like that all through the winter.  Makes me considerably faster than running at 90F.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2024, 08:33:11 AM

This hurricane season is confounding experts and defying forecasts. What the heck is going on? | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/weather/hurricane-season-atlantic-storms-climate/index.html)

This is why I think human ability to predict a hurricane season is poor, the climate is too complex to be modeled very well.  Then they come up with "well, something else happened".  It's not a good prediction when that happens, simple as that.

They claim hot water makes for more hurricanes, and when it fails to happen, they talk about caveats, after the fact.  Hopefully things stay quiet now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2024, 08:53:46 AM

I think CSU said we'd have 27 named storms this season. NHC said 25.

We've had 5.

Peak season is September 10.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 07, 2024, 09:18:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2024, 08:53:46 AM

I think CSU said we'd have 27 named storms this season. NHC said 25.

We've had 5.

Peak season is September 10.

which is why I pay no attention to predicted number of hurricanes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 07, 2024, 09:24:07 AM

I pay no attention for another reason

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 07, 2024, 09:36:23 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/JgTN353.png)

no gas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2024, 10:28:44 AM

I view "climate" broadly as way too complex to model.  WAY.  And yet, we try, which is fine with me, but the credibility of such models is in my view suspect.

Even predicting hurricanes seems to be more guesswork based on some very simple measurements.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2024, 10:36:02 AM

An explanation of what they got wrong would be good.

Saharan dust and high wind shear are the culprits at this time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2024, 10:37:27 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/USAhNJG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2024, 10:37:43 AM

They THINK those are two factors they didn't model, which could be true, and there could be other factors they don't consider at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2024, 10:39:39 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/6HtmRDK.png)

Maybe they are a bit better than random.Maybe.  I could just predict 15 named storms each year and be about as accurate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2024, 10:45:23 AM

Gonna have to revisit this comment come November or so. I hope he's wrong, obviously.


Storms “will come back,” Klotzbach cautioned. “I still don’t see this season ending well.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2024, 11:14:39 AM

#6 could be coming next week.

Tropical disturbance 91L could become tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico next week | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropics-invest-91l-gulf-of-mexico-texas-louisiana-september-2024)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 07, 2024, 12:42:39 PM

Saw this and it's similar to what I discussed a few days ago about the data center industry...

https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/06/datacenters_set_to_emit_3x/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2024, 07:46:57 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 07, 2024, 12:42:39 PM

Saw this and it's similar to what I discussed a few days ago about the data center industry...

https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/06/datacenters_set_to_emit_3x/

Another major issue with power drain is all the crypto miners.  They gravitate to places with cheap power, then consume all that power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 07, 2024, 09:31:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 07, 2024, 07:46:57 PM

Another major issue with power drain is all the crypto miners.  They gravitate to places with cheap power, then consume all that power.

Yeah. And I've still not found an argument that crypto is anything but stupid. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 11:17:29 AM

Starting to heat up a little. 90%, 60% and 50%, from L-R.

Texas looks to in for a lot of rain.

(https://i.imgur.com/QP3hDVR.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 08, 2024, 11:26:41 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 11:17:29 AM

Starting to heat up a little. 90%, 60% and 50%, from L-R.

Texas looks to in for a lot of rain.

(https://i.imgur.com/QP3hDVR.png)

I'm sure poor Gigem and lh320 will get too much in the Houston area while we get nothing.  Weather sux.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:35:06 AM

Humans chose where to set up camp.  And we choose to remain.  We rebuilt New Orleans below sea level on a major river and near the coast.
We stack ourselves along the coasts because it's pretty.  And bitch about the inevitable storms that happen.  Live along rivers' flood plains and call it tragedy when it floods there.

We build multi-million person cities in the middle of the desert, then bitch about water usage.  Chop down forests in order to plant a crop to feed an animal we deem tasty.  And we chop down another forest to give them space to frolick before we eat them.

But yeah.  Let's yell at the sky.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:35:43 AM

That being said, 100+ days of 100+ degrees here in Phoenix!  New record.  Just call it a new annual record. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2024, 11:37:27 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:35:06 AM

But yeah.  Let's yell at the sky.

Do you have some practicable solution to this?

Humans built settlements "back in the day" along water because of the ease of trade.  Nearly every large city is on a navigable waterway.  The few exceptions are cities built much more recently (in the age of rail).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:52:25 AM

Don't yell at the sky?
Don't label the inevitable as being tragic?
Gradually build in higher, safer places?  
Have a deliberate, prudent, well-thought-out society?

Crazy talk.  I know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 11:57:58 AM

There are risks to living just about anywhere in the world.

We make our choices, and we live with those choices.

We knew the risk in moving here. We just hope for the best.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Riffraft on September 08, 2024, 12:37:50 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 11:57:58 AM

There are risks to living just about anywhere in the world.

We make our choices, and we live with those choices.

We knew the risk in moving here. We just hope for the best.

But then they want all the rest of us to pay to fix it up when the inevitable happens. That is not living with the choices.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 12:50:00 PM

You live in a desert... Some would say that is not a good choice.

People in California, Oregon and Washington are just biding their time until they fall into the Pacific or get burned by a fire. People in Iowa, etc. are just waiting for that next tornado.

Examples abound.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Riffraft on September 08, 2024, 12:56:18 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 12:50:00 PM

You live in a desert... Some would say that is not a good choice.

People in California, Oregon and Washington are just biding their time until they fall into the Pacific or get burned by a fire. People in Iowa, etc. are just waiting for that next tornado.

Examples abound.

My issue is not with where anyone lives, my issue is asking others to pay for their choices on where to live.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 01:06:43 PM

Do you mean from an infrastructure standpoint? That is definitely a governmental responsibility. The State of Florida generally takes care of itself, with some Federal assistance.

We took $125K in damages from Ian and only recovered $80K from our private insurance. We funded the rest.

Rebuilding anything in New Orleans below sea level was stupid. That was all Federal money, wasted by the W administration.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2024, 01:38:40 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:52:25 AM

Don't yell at the sky?
Don't label the inevitable as being tragic?
Gradually build in higher, safer places? 
Have a deliberate, prudent, well-thought-out society?

Crazy talk.  I know.

Do you view this as realistic and practicable?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2024, 02:24:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2024, 01:38:40 PM

Do you view this as realistic and practicable?

Nobody gets to live in Coastal Washington, Oregon, California, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Iland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire or Maine.

Arizona and Nevada are deserts. Can't live there either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2024, 09:42:57 PM

v

Projected course of latest storm

Here we go again yepee




(https://i.imgur.com/lKu9EAL.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:19:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2024, 01:38:40 PM

Do you view this as realistic and practicable?

It could be, but isn't.  We're not a proactive species.  At all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2024, 06:11:59 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:19:12 PM

It could be, but isn't.  We're not a proactive species.  At all.

In some authoritarian world, it would be more feasible to tell people where they can no longer live, and force them to move somewhere "approved", by you, or someone.

It still would cost someone of course a ridiculous amount of money.  Even China isn't attempting it (outside building dams in places that will be flooded).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2024, 07:15:25 AM

It's interesting to me anyway how "Armchair Theorists" can devise situations they think would be better for "humanity" all day, and rarely is any of the ideas remotely practicable.  I suppose it's OK to sit and theorize, but strikes me ultimately as pretty useless, something folks did in college dorm rooms back in the day.  "What if ...".

It pretty much all requires "government" full of "smart people" telling the rest of us what we should buy, where we should live, what we can own, etc.  Put the "smart people" in charge and they'd do a lot better for us minions out there who buy guns and sodas and red meat and chips and don't exercise and have more than one child, etc.  A term for this is "central planning", versus a "free market".  And it obviously requires the heavy hand of government.  

It can sound a lot better, at first anyway.  We wouldn't have folks living in Miami and New Orleans, they'd all be moved, somehow, inland, to somewhere else.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2024, 08:39:45 AM

agreed

but what we have currently is "government" full of "smart people" telling the rest of us to give them our money so they can spend it more wisely to help other folks that made poor decisions. 

A term for this is "central planning" And it obviously requires the heavy hand of government. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2024, 08:48:43 AM

I find the concept that government should, or could, tell millions of people to move to be ... highly impracticable, even as a concept, it's silly, to me.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2024, 08:54:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 09, 2024, 08:48:43 AM

I find the concept that government should, or could, tell millions of people to move to be ... highly impracticable, even as a concept, it's silly, to me. 

250,000,000+ people wouldn't listen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2024, 08:57:27 AM

they tell smaller groups to move and it sometimes works OK

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2024, 09:01:37 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 09, 2024, 08:57:27 AM

they tell smaller groups to move and it sometimes works OK

20,000,000+ people moved here when they were told it was OK.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2024, 09:19:03 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:22:14 PM

FL always gets back down to 75-80 at night, no matter how hot it gets during the day.  That's another big difference....it can be 100 degrees in AZ at midnight.  It's dumbfounding.

It depends. The Gulf is 88 degrees right now and has influence on our night temps if the breeze is off of it. Lately it has been, for us anyway. Probably further inland the lows are lower.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2024, 09:34:10 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 08, 2024, 09:42:57 PM

v

Projected course of latest storm

Here we go again yepee




(https://i.imgur.com/lKu9EAL.png)

Tracking further East now. New Orleans could take the brunt.


(https://i.imgur.com/YfqGisU.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2024, 11:13:09 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/1DMlM3V.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 09, 2024, 07:58:39 PM

West and East from my front lawn...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2024, 08:14:49 PM

not moving there

hopefully the golf course is safe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2024, 09:10:55 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 09, 2024, 07:15:25 AM

It's interesting to me anyway how "Armchair Theorists" can devise situations they think would be better for "humanity" all day, and rarely is any of the ideas remotely practicable.  I suppose it's OK to sit and theorize, but strikes me ultimately as pretty useless, something folks did in college dorm rooms back in the day.  "What if ...".

It pretty much all requires "government" full of "smart people" telling the rest of us what we should buy, where we should live, what we can own, etc.  Put the "smart people" in charge and they'd do a lot better for us minions out there who buy guns and sodas and red meat and chips and don't exercise and have more than one child, etc.  A term for this is "central planning", versus a "free market".  And it obviously requires the heavy hand of government. 

It can sound a lot better, at first anyway.  We wouldn't have folks living in Miami and New Orleans, they'd all be moved, somehow, inland, to somewhere else. 

What a tired idea.

Open your eyes.

How about the masses smarten up themselves?!?  Just another wild pipe-dream, huh?  
I'll never understand how so many people like to turn "better yourself" into "you're not the boss of me."

Ugh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2024, 09:26:14 PM

More inane burfle.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2024, 10:41:50 PM

Go to bed, old man.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2024, 11:34:53 PM

Somewhere between Lake Charles and New Orleans, looks like.  Not the worst place to make landfall but if it's close enough to NOLA, that puts them on the dirty side.

(https://i.imgur.com/ZvLHPlo.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 09, 2024, 11:52:16 PM

What's the longest that any of you have ever been outside in a hurricane? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs&pp=ygUJaHVycmljYW5l

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2024, 07:12:10 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2024, 09:10:55 PM

How about the masses smarten up themselves?!?  Just another wild pipe-dream, huh? 
I'll never understand how so many people like to turn "better yourself" into "you're not the boss of me."

Yes, it's a bizarre, wild, infantile pipe dream.  How about folks become better drivers?  Are drink less alcohol?  Or eat fewer empty Calories?  Or emit less CO2?  How about a lot of things?

A practicable solution to some problem has to be more than some wish list somehow hoping people will change.  It needs a grounding in reality, or it's just dorm room talk.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 10, 2024, 07:46:04 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 08, 2024, 11:35:06 AM

Humans chose where to set up camp.  And we choose to remain.  We rebuilt New Orleans below sea level on a major river and near the coast.
We stack ourselves along the coasts because it's pretty.  And bitch about the inevitable storms that happen.  Live along rivers' flood plains and call it tragedy when it floods there.

We build multi-million person cities in the middle of the desert, then bitch about water usage.  Chop down forests in order to plant a crop to feed an animal we deem tasty.  And we chop down another forest to give them space to frolick before we eat them.

But yeah.  Let's yell at the sky.

WTF are you talking about ?  Nobody is yelling at the sky. It’s a discussion, scattered with complaints and praise. 

People always have gravitated to places with resources because that’s what it takes to live. Fishermen need water, and a harbor. 

In my own area, my family moved here 100 years ago because there was Sulphur underground, they came first to mine the Sulphur, and then there happened to be salt domes here. The salt domes were useful for extracting magnesium, and then storing hydrocarbons and other chemicals in vast quantities underground in the resulting cavities. Then, we made a man made port by literally re-routing a river. 
Eventually a petrochemical complex arose here from the resources available and persists to this day. All because of sulfur, magnesium, salt, shipping, and oil. 

New Orleans has a reason to be there as well. It’s not just random. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2024, 10:54:00 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2024, 09:10:55 PM

What a tired idea.

Open your eyes.

How about the masses smarten up themselves?!?  Just another wild pipe-dream, huh? 
I'll never understand how so many people like to turn "better yourself" into "you're not the boss of me."

Ugh.

Wait, you're criticizing people who build cities in a desert while... Living--by choice--in a city in a desert?

The issue with all of what you're saying here is that you assume that "we" as a society should always make smart collective choices, while not realizing that "we" as individuals make our own choices according to our own needs, whims, and preferences. That's why you live in Phoenix. For whatever reason, it made sense for you individually to move there and work, despite the fact that building a dense population center in a place without enough water to support it is collectively dumb.

To a large extent, the "masses" can often be smart about the things that matter while being stupid about things that don't or only slightly affect them. That, by the way, is true whether they're dumb as a box of rocks, or smart as hell. Because even smart people, let's use doctors as an example, don't have to be smart about city planning to be successful in life. But that doctor may opine and vote based on uninformed and very wrong ideas about city planning--or even just selfish ideas like NIMBYism.

As it is, I think you're a pretty smart guy, OAM... With a lot of dumb, uninformed, opinions. Opinions that you have an outsized sense of confidence in, to boot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 10, 2024, 11:04:24 AM

Quote from: Riffraft on September 08, 2024, 12:56:18 PM

My issue is not with where anyone lives, my issue is asking others to pay for their choices on where to live. 

I don't understand mostly.  How are we asking you to pay for our choices?  I can see what you mean with regards to New Orleans and some other oft-slammed places.  I have never received any government subsidy for storm damage, and I've been impacted plenty.  

And, just so we're clear, where do you live?  I believe I've made it clear I live in SE Texas along the coast, and I'm not complaining about it.  Storms here are just a fact of life.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 11:09:49 AM

Most insurance companies are national.  Enormous insurance claims in New Orleans or Florida or Houston, increase insurance premiums across the entire country.  In that sense, yes, people from elsewhere are subsidizing the choices of others.

That's not even to mention things like FEMA assistance to weather-ravaged areas, which is also paid for by the national collective via federal taxes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2024, 11:19:04 AM

Quote from: Gigem on September 10, 2024, 11:04:24 AM

I don't understand mostly.  How are we asking you to pay for our choices?  I can see what you mean with regards to New Orleans and some other oft-slammed places.  I have never received any government subsidy for storm damage, and I've been impacted plenty. 

And, just so we're clear, where do you live?  I believe I've made it clear I live in SE Texas along the coast, and I'm not complaining about it.  Storms here are just a fact of life. 

In a desert.

We made the same choice as you, living on the Gulf Coast, and have not taken a dime from anyone other than our private insurance company and our private money from our private bank.

Rebuilding New Orleans was dumb.

We had a $1 Mil contract to do construction layout and observation after Katrina with Home | Kiewit Corporation (https://www.kiewit.com/).

It was the West Closure project.

Gulf Intracoastal Waterway West Closure Complex - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Intracoastal_Waterway_West_Closure_Complex)

I walked away from it as I did not believe in the project and my ethics wouldn't let me do the work. My partner was very pissed. We almost split.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 11:21:32 AM

Models look to be shifting a little more eastward.  At this rate NOLA is definitely in danger of getting the brunt of the dirty side.

(https://i.imgur.com/fbg8tZw.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2024, 11:24:36 AM

Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 11:09:49 AM

Most insurance companies are national.  Enormous insurance claims in New Orleans or Florida or Houston, increase insurance premiums across the entire country.  In that sense, yes, people from elsewhere are subsidizing the choices of others.

That's not even to mention things like FEMA assistance to weather-ravaged areas, which is also paid for by the national collective via federal taxes.

We can't get Allstate, State Farm, Geico, etc. in Florida. They pulled out of the market, and several others.

So, no. No impact on you or anyone else like you.

Our insurance company is Frontline. You have never heard of them. Neither did I.

FEMA is more than just about tropical storms. Think fires, earthquakes, tornados, river flooding, etc. Those things can happen anywhere.

Why should "I" have to pay for a tornado in Tennessee? Simple. We are all US citizens.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2024, 11:24:41 AM

Everywhere has risks.  Here there is only flooding around creeks, and some of that was somehow changed.  Earthquakes are quite rare.  Tornados happen, but not as often as in the Plains.  Hurricanes, only residuals.  Snow fall?  Rare.  

I hear Austin, TX is THE place to be though.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on September 10, 2024, 11:29:15 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 10, 2024, 11:24:41 AM

Everywhere has risks.  Here there is only flooding around creeks, and some of that was somehow changed.  Earthquakes are quite rare.  Tornados happen, but not as often as in the Plains.  Hurricanes, only residuals.  Snow fall?  Rare. 

I hear Austin, TX is THE place to be though.

if you have a spare kidney

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 11:33:59 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2024, 11:24:36 AM

We can't get Allstate, State Farm, Geico, etc. in Florida. They pulled out of the market, and several others.

So, no. No impact on you or anyone else like you.

Our insurance company is Frontline. You have never heard of them. Neither did I.

FEMA is more than just about tropical storms. Think fires, earthquakes, tornados, river flooding, etc. Those things can happen anywhere.

Why should "I" have to pay for a tornado in Tennessee? Simple. We are all US citizens.

I know what FEMA does.  I also suspect that a higher percentage of FEMA money goes to places like Florida, and Houston, and other places that are highly prone to widespread, massive damage.  Katrina alone likely tilted the table so heavily in that direction it won't ever come back.  

Tornadoes are nothing like hurricanes in total damage assessments.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2024, 11:37:06 AM

I never quite understood FEMA.  I've seen stories, possibly exaggerated, about how ineffective they have been.  I've seen folks in damaged areas claiming they had not heard from FEMA at all.  So, I don't know, maybe the truth is in the middle.  I sort of expect folks to take care of themselves in a disaster, maybe with local assistance, and it's nice if temporary housing is provided for folks displaced.  I'm not clear what else they do, but haven't really looked into it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2024, 01:32:45 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 10, 2024, 11:24:41 AM

I hear Austin, TX is THE place to be though.

I've heard Austin is turning into a desert 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2024, 04:00:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 11:33:59 AM

I know what FEMA does.  I also suspect that a higher percentage of FEMA money goes to places like Florida, and Houston, and other places that are highly prone to widespread, massive damage.  Katrina alone likely tilted the table so heavily in that direction it won't ever come back. 

Tornadoes are nothing like hurricanes in total damage assessments.

If you look at Federal dollars as a whole, more money goes into keeping the Mississippi in its path than any other project. It's on the order of $7 Billion per year. And that is only one river that gets USACE attention. There are several more.

New Orleans should have never been re-built to its present form.

Katrina LA and Harvey (LA/TX) were each $125 Billion.

Ian (FL) was $113 Billion.

Sandy (NE) was $70 Billion.

These are today's dollars.

Since Katrina, the USACE has spent ~ $135 Billion keeping the Mississippi in its path, so that the port of New Orleans remains viable.

Think about that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2024, 04:07:15 PM

https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/orange-county-evacuation-warnings-airport-fire-trabuco-canyon/

9,000 acres and 0% contained. So that's fun. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 04:23:59 PM

Man y'all are always either burning or flooding/mud-sliding out there.  I'm going to cancel my plans to move next door to you...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2024, 04:42:58 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 04:23:59 PM

Man y'all are always either burning or flooding/mud-sliding out there.  I'm going to cancel my plans to move next door to you...

I heard a stand-up comic with a bit on that after she moved to LA. Her mom was always concerned about fires and mudslides. To which she said "Mom, to worry about either of those you need to live near trees or hills. I don't have that kind of money!"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 10, 2024, 06:46:21 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2024, 04:00:32 PM

If you look at Federal dollars as a whole, more money goes into keeping the Mississippi in its path than any other project. It's on the order of $7 Billion per year. And that is only one river that gets USACE attention. There are several more.

New Orleans should have never been re-built to its present form.

Katrina LA and Harvey (LA/TX) were each $125 Billion.

Ian (FL) was $113 Billion.

Sandy (NE) was $70 Billion.

These are today's dollars.

Since Katrina, the USACE has spent ~ $135 Billion keeping the Mississippi in its path, so that the port of New Orleans remains viable.

Think about that.

Just so I’m clear, do you mean Harvey cost FEMA $125 billion?  Because I’d guess that Harvey was much more destructive than Ian simply because of the sheer size of destruction. Harvey basically flooded out large portions of area 200 miles wide by 200 miles deep. And that doesn’t even count what it did to Rockport. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2024, 07:31:02 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2024, 11:33:59 AM

Tornadoes are nothing like hurricanes in total damage assessments.

Tornadoes are a single rogue soldier.
Hurricanes are an entire army.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2024, 07:41:32 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2024, 10:54:00 AM

Wait, you're criticizing people who build cities in a desert while... Living--by choice--in a city in a desert?

The issue with all of what you're saying here is that you assume that "we" as a society should always make smart collective choices, while not realizing that "we" as individuals make our own choices according to our own needs, whims, and preferences. That's why you live in Phoenix. For whatever reason, it made sense for you individually to move there and work, despite the fact that building a dense population center in a place without enough water to support it is collectively dumb.

To a large extent, the "masses" can often be smart about the things that matter while being stupid about things that don't or only slightly affect them. That, by the way, is true whether they're dumb as a box of rocks, or smart as hell. Because even smart people, let's use doctors as an example, don't have to be smart about city planning to be successful in life. But that doctor may opine and vote based on uninformed and very wrong ideas about city planning--or even just selfish ideas like NIMBYism.

As it is, I think you're a pretty smart guy, OAM... With a lot of dumb, uninformed, opinions. Opinions that you have an outsized sense of confidence in, to boot.

Yes, I live in a city that shouldn't be here, at least not at this size.  Because I need a job.  Because because because.

Now, I wouldn't live here if it wasn't here.  If there was no Phoenix, I'd live someplace else, obviously.
The masses make choices for ourselves, many of which are poor collective choices because we're allowed to.  What's the absurd harm of suggesting individuals' choices should be limited within the confines of good collective choices?  

And Cincy, there's exactly zero difference between posting on this here board and "dorm room talk."  We're all just older.  None of it matters and it's all a waste of time.  It's how we choose to waste our time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 10, 2024, 08:09:15 PM

So why does Phoenix exist?  What is it that draws people there?  Ok, I get that you’re there to teach. I’m asking, basically, what human need did phoenix at its core fulfill to justify its existence?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2024, 08:14:53 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2024, 07:41:32 PM

What's the absurd harm of suggesting individuals' choices should be limited within the confines of good collective choices? 

The hubris to think that we've got perfectly wise leaders who always are great at deciding what "good collective choices" are. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2024, 08:20:59 AM

Quote from: Gigem on September 10, 2024, 06:46:21 PM

Just so I’m clear, do you mean Harvey cost FEMA $125 billion?  Because I’d guess that Harvey was much more destructive than Ian simply because of the sheer size of destruction. Harvey basically flooded out large portions of area 200 miles wide by 200 miles deep. And that doesn’t even count what it did to Rockport.

No - that number is total cost to the US, state, insurance companies, homeowners, etc.

It is very difficult to find real numbers as to the actual expenditures by FEMA and the US. There is a reason for that.

Harvey and Ian were equally destructive.

Ian' path and its size (huge):


(https://i.imgur.com/Y0P1EeF.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/w1dvIQp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2024, 08:25:51 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 09, 2024, 11:52:16 PM

What's the longest that any of you have ever been outside in a hurricane?

I was outside for a bit during Ian. I forgot to lock the lid on the generator, and it opened up and failed due to rain. Had to fix it and get it closed. 30 minutes or so. Not fun.

The we went for a walk when we got into the eye. Calm, sunny, weird. About an hour. The eye was huge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2024, 08:47:56 AM

Can a hurricane catch fire? 

(https://media.cbs8.com/assets/KFMB/images/7ea7c3c6-1be3-40b0-8d3a-2cfc20afc383/7ea7c3c6-1be3-40b0-8d3a-2cfc20afc383_1920x1080.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 11, 2024, 08:58:28 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2024, 08:47:56 AM

Can a hurricane catch fire?

(https://media.cbs8.com/assets/KFMB/images/7ea7c3c6-1be3-40b0-8d3a-2cfc20afc383/7ea7c3c6-1be3-40b0-8d3a-2cfc20afc383_1920x1080.jpg)

Torchanado.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2024, 09:01:02 AM

must be California

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2024, 09:14:42 AM

It's pretty easy to note a problem, and can be worth noting it.  It's much more difficult to contrive a practicable possible solution.  When asked if I have one, I'll just ssay "no" and move on instead of saying "Well, if people were smarter ...".


It's parallel to complaining about other drivers, a thing my wife does a fair bit.  She doesn't understand how I can be so blaise about it.  I guess it makes her feel better or something.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 11, 2024, 09:17:07 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2024, 08:20:59 AM

No - that number is total cost to the US, state, insurance companies, homeowners, etc.

It is very difficult to find real numbers as to the actual expenditures by FEMA and the US. There is a reason for that.

Harvey and Ian were equally destructive.

Ian' path and its size (huge):


(https://i.imgur.com/Y0P1EeF.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/w1dvIQp.png)

No doubt that Ian was a big storm....it's just that Harvey decimated the 3rd or 4th largest population center in the country.  I had no idea Ian did that much damage.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2024, 09:28:46 AM

Quote from: Gigem on September 11, 2024, 09:17:07 AM

No doubt that Ian was a big storm....it's just that Harvey decimated the 3rd or 4th largest population center in the country.  I had no idea Ian did that much damage. 

It was a huge storm. It affected not only SW FL (1.5 Million), but Tampa (3.2), Orlando (2.7), etc. It was a very slow mover too, so the rain was biblical.

And then it made a second landfall in the Carolinas.

I'd rather not see another one like Ian, but I know I will.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2024, 12:04:55 PM

I don't know that this can ever be explained.

Scientists Left Worried After Extensive Patch of the Atlantic Ocean Begins Cooling at a Record Rate (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/scientists-left-worried-after-extensive-patch-of-the-atlantic-ocean-begins-cooling-at-a-record-rate/ss-AA1qoMgK?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=b9875da0f64d4ebc9a1d34f1f9b13ab4&ei=10)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2024, 12:06:27 PM

be Ice age warnings soon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 11, 2024, 12:08:00 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/jIdhQjT.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2024, 03:40:32 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2024, 12:04:55 PM

I don't know that this can ever be explained.

Scientists Left Worried After Extensive Patch of the Atlantic Ocean Begins Cooling at a Record Rate (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/scientists-left-worried-after-extensive-patch-of-the-atlantic-ocean-begins-cooling-at-a-record-rate/ss-AA1qoMgK?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=b9875da0f64d4ebc9a1d34f1f9b13ab4&ei=10)

In September 2023, a massive tsunami in remote eastern Greenland triggered seismic waves that captured the attention of researchers worldwide.

The event created a week-long oscillating wave in Dickson Fjord, according to a new report in The Seismic Record.

Angela Carrillo-Ponce of GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience and her colleagues identified two distinct signals in the seismic data from the event: one high-energy signal caused by the massive rockslide that generated the tsunami, and one very long-period (VLP) signal that lasted over a week.

Their analysis of the VLP signal—which was detected as far as 5000 kilometers (3100 miles) away—suggests that the landslide and resulting tsunami created a seiche, or a standing wave that oscillates in a body of water. In this case, the seiche was churning for days between the shores of Dickson Fjord.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 11, 2024, 07:02:03 PM

Francine making landfall in Louisiana right now as a Cat2.  It's headed easterly enough that part of the eyewall could pass directly through New Orleans. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2024, 08:15:50 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2024, 08:14:53 PM

The hubris to think that we've got perfectly wise leaders who always are great at deciding what "good collective choices" are.

Building in a flood plain is demonstrably going to result in major flooding where people live.  Let's build on ground 10 feet higher.

It doesn't have to be a good choice vs bad choice.  It can be incremental and logic-based (for many things).  I just don't see the harm.  Why does Cedar Rapids, Iowa have to stay in the same location it has in the past?  Being a slave to tradition or saying "it's hard" aren't reason enough to dissuade me.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2024, 08:19:23 PM

Quote from: Gigem on September 10, 2024, 08:09:15 PM

So why does Phoenix exist?  What is it that draws people there?  Ok, I get that you’re there to teach. I’m asking, basically, what human need did phoenix at its core fulfill to justify its existence? 

Phoenix was built where 2 small rivers joined into one.  The rivers could support a small population and has, over many centuries or more.
But we dammed one river and the other is at 10% of its natural flow. 

There's now 5 million people in the Phoenix metro area and both rivers are dry inside the city. 
So that's fun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2024, 10:04:05 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/PYuQmOW.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2024, 10:59:58 AM

Finally cool enough to open all the windows but now it smells smoky... And treated to a little light earthquake this morning too. 4.7 a little north of Malibu, so we barely felt it here. 

Just another day in paradise :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2024, 11:05:10 AM

afternoon tee time???

I'm going to Sioux Falls Saturday to watch the old guys on the Champions Tour

John Daly doesn't seem to be in the field

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2024, 11:14:55 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2024, 08:15:50 PM

Building in a flood plain is demonstrably going to result in major flooding where people live.  Let's build on ground 10 feet higher.

It doesn't have to be a good choice vs bad choice.  It can be incremental and logic-based (for many things).  I just don't see the harm.  Why does Cedar Rapids, Iowa have to stay in the same location it has in the past?  Being a slave to tradition or saying "it's hard" aren't reason enough to dissuade me. 

Moving a city is quite costly. 

It's one thing to take an area that isn't built and say "this area is in a flood plain, so we'll restrict any zoning that allows for new builds".

It's another to say "here's an existing city, we're going to force everyone who lives here to move from the place they know and love, all the history they've built over generations, and uproot everything they know. Oh, and it's going to cost many billions of dollars."

Politicians who try the latter have this nasty little habit of, I don't know, losing their next elections. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2024, 11:15:16 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 12, 2024, 11:05:10 AM

afternoon tee time???

I'm going to Sioux Falls Saturday to watch the old guys on the Champions Tour

John Daly doesn't seem to be in the field

Is there no Hooters in Sioux Falls? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2024, 11:25:07 AM

unfortunately, no

John does enjoy the casino across the river in Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2024, 12:13:18 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2024, 08:15:50 PM

Building in a flood plain is demonstrably going to result in major flooding where people live.  Let's build on ground 10 feet higher.

It doesn't have to be a good choice vs bad choice.  It can be incremental and logic-based (for many things).  I just don't see the harm.  Why does Cedar Rapids, Iowa have to stay in the same location it has in the past?  Being a slave to tradition or saying "it's hard" aren't reason enough to dissuade me. 

It is no longer permissible in almost every area of this country, and has not been since the late 1980's. There are major hurdles to overcome. Sometimes people choose to take those hurdles.

I've built a career on this very thing.

This is a development North of me called Punta Gorda Isles. This could never be built today. Not a snowball's chance in Hell.


(https://i.imgur.com/UzEywpr.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2024, 12:23:26 PM

@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) seismic activity seems to be more active than normal lately out there in Cali. Do sense the same, or is it just being reported more?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2024, 12:38:36 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2024, 12:23:26 PM

@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) seismic activity seems to be more active than normal lately out there in Cali. Do sense the same, or is it just being reported more?

Tough to tell. I can say that anecdotally I've personally felt more earthquakes in the last 6 months than I've felt in probably several years before that. I can count at least 4 that I've felt in that timeframe. The last one I remember before that was probably mid-2021 when I was at LAX waiting for a flight to Oregon. 

But I'd have to ask people who track this stuff statistically if there's actually a trend or not. Anecdote != data. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2024, 12:41:20 PM

Thanks.

What would happen in your area if the "big one" hit?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2024, 12:49:05 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2024, 12:41:20 PM

Thanks.

What would happen in your area if the "big one" hit?

We're a significant distance from the San Andreas or other REALLY major faults. So things like the Northridge quake wouldn't be nearly as significant to us. The San Andreas skirts the northeastern portion of LA county and then goes far inland of us.  

If I look at a map of fault lines, we're between the Newport fault and the Elsinore Fault, and historically both have produced quakes >6 on the scale a century or so ago. If another one of that magnitude hit those faults, it would shake the shit out of us here. But that wouldn't be "the big one" that people talk about. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2024, 09:35:14 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2024, 11:14:55 AM

Moving a city is quite costly.

It's one thing to take an area that isn't built and say "this area is in a flood plain, so we'll restrict any zoning that allows for new builds".

It's another to say "here's an existing city, we're going to force everyone who lives here to move from the place they know and love, all the history they've built over generations, and uproot everything they know. Oh, and it's going to cost many billions of dollars."

Politicians who try the latter have this nasty little habit of, I don't know, losing their next elections.

I haven't suggested a sudden move of a city.  You do it over time, obviously.  If that was simply 'the way' going back 50 years instead of 'do what we've always done, predictable natural tragedy, rebuild, repeat,' a lot of the work would already have been done.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2024, 11:06:12 PM

it's easy, just quit funding the rebuilds

insurance companies won't offer insurance

folks will move out to ground 10 feet higher and not come back

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2024, 11:49:21 PM

Whether easy or not, it's deliberate.  It's not repeated, 2-dimensional thinking.  We should be implementing things that benefit the masses even if they don't understand why or even agree with it.  It's flouride in the water, but with teeth.
I love that even gradual help over time gets pushback here.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2024, 05:52:19 AM

Centralized planning.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2024, 07:58:05 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 12, 2024, 11:06:12 PM

it's easy, just quit funding the rebuilds

insurance companies won't offer insurance

folks will move out to ground 10 feet higher and not come back

That is what happens already. You cannot get a permit to build unless you are compliant with FEMA regulations. This isn't the 1980's anymore.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2024, 07:59:05 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2024, 11:49:21 PM

Whether easy or not, it's deliberate.  It's not repeated, 2-dimensional thinking.  We should be implementing things that benefit the masses even if they don't understand why or even agree with it.  It's flouride in the water, but with teeth.
I love that even gradual help over time gets pushback here. 

You should become familiar with the actual regulations. It would help you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2024, 07:59:19 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 13, 2024, 05:52:19 AM

Centralized planning. 

We have that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2024, 10:45:47 AM

Probably gonna be a fish storm.

(https://i.imgur.com/0BkRJcp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 17, 2024, 12:39:40 PM

Interesting.

New tropical threat to US may arise next week (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/new-tropical-threat-to-us-may-arise-next-week/ar-AA1qIKQj?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=834baf62a8d34dffa9817173c5a23bf7&ei=16)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 17, 2024, 12:41:07 PM

May

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 17, 2024, 12:59:04 PM

"They" are trying to come up with anything lately. "They" predicted 25+ storms for this season.

"They" have egg on their faces, and "they" have some splainin' to do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2024, 07:03:28 AM

Brightline Rail Reports $116 Million Financial Loss for First Quarter of 2024 - Florida Daily (https://floridadaily.com/brightline-rail-reports-116-million-financial-loss-for-first-quarter-of-2024/)

Part of me hopes the train thing will work somewhere other than ACELA, but I keep reading how ridership is much lower than forecasts, it's seems inherent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2024, 01:05:05 PM

We have to do something!

https://twitter.com/houmanhemmati/status/1837218099826937939?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1837218103127855297%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url= (https://twitter.com/houmanhemmati/status/1837218099826937939?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1837218103127855297|twgr^|twcon^s2_&ref_url=)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 08:51:16 AM

Self-driving pods pilot program to arrive at Atlanta’s airport | FOX 5 Atlanta (https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/self-driving-pods-arrive-atlantas-airport-pilot-ground-transportation-program?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A Trending)

I think I like this concept, "pods" on separated lanes for local transport.  It might be a better concept than light rail in places, or street cars.

(https://i.imgur.com/LTdy2oT.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 09:25:29 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/WSsYlTo.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 09:31:23 AM

The climate folks claim solar variability is not a factor (most of them) with respect to any current rapid increase in mean T.  Some claim it IS a factor of course.

It is abundantly clear that 'we' are not doing anything like enough to reduce CO2 to have much on an impact on CC IF the models are roughly correct.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 22, 2024, 09:42:48 AM

seems there are MANY MANY more "climate folks" than 10-20 years ago

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 09:43:15 AM

There is nothing we can do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 09:44:22 AM

"They" have been talking about this red one for at least a week. 

"It may or may not develop."

Profound.

(https://i.imgur.com/cuIBP5s.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 09:45:38 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 09:43:15 AM

There is nothing we can do.

(https://i.imgur.com/sshIfo2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 09:51:20 AM

I'm obviously all ears to read about some plan that has some chance of being effective at reducing a global T increase if the models are about correct.

The entirety of what I see happening or planned is a pittance, throwing a few billions at the wall and thinking it means anything.

Take Germany, one of the "green" leaders as a major country, and the reductions are there, but not meaningful on a global scale, and still high.  The low hanging fruit there is about expended, now they have the tough part of the equation.  And this is just one country making an expensive effort.  It's pretty clear their 2030 target won't be achieved barring some economic collapse or major recession.  Net zero by 2050 is laughable.  And this is probably the BEST anyone has done (leaving out small countries like Norway with other factors at play).

(https://i.imgur.com/pBTmQVA.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 09:51:33 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 09:45:38 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/sshIfo2.png)

Man, trying nothing has been really expensive so far.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 09:58:53 AM

I'm not sure there is any successful path forward without a major commitment to nuclear power, and I believe China is the only country making such a commitment. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 10:03:10 AM

Maybe they are, but it appears to be having rather limited impact, if any, so far.

(https://i.imgur.com/WLOtUYH.png)

And of course their comparative increase in nuclear is .... modest.  That black part of the equation appears to be .... black.

(https://i.imgur.com/l3CmTAT.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 10:04:59 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 09:58:53 AM

I'm not sure there is any successful path forward without a major commitment to nuclear power, and I believe China is the only country making such a commitment.

The greenies did a great job killing off nuke power.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:06:44 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 10:03:10 AM

Maybe they are, but it appears to be having rather limited impact, if any, so far.

(https://i.imgur.com/WLOtUYH.png)

And of course their comparative increase in nuclear is .... modest.  That black part of the equation appears to be .... black.

(https://i.imgur.com/l3CmTAT.png)

They have a huge amount of coal power. Coal is cheap. But they are actually building nuclear reactors, and we aren't. That would disrupt the fracking industry and offend environmentalists, so lose lose.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 10:06:47 AM

Nuclear Power Is the Only Solution | TIME (https://time.com/6342343/nuclear-energy-climate-change/)

But he provides no practicable plan, only aspirations.  No costs, no projections, really nothing but his opinion, which is fine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 10:08:20 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:06:44 AM

They have a huge amount of coal power. Coal is cheap. But they are actually building nuclear reactors, and we aren't. That would disrupt the fracking industry and offend environmentalists, so lose lose.

Yes, they are building more reactors, as is India, and a few others.  But, the power generation from nuclear in China is obviously a pittance on a relative scale.  It's fine to build more nukes, I'm for it, but to suggest that will have any real impact on CO2 production over the next few decades is simply wrong.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: DunkingDan on September 22, 2024, 10:11:50 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/2R1NV22.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:13:30 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 10:08:20 AM

Yes, they are building more reactors, as is India, and a few others.  But, the power generation from nuclear in China is obviously a pittance on a relative scale.  It's fine to build more nukes, I'm for it, but to suggest that will have any real impact on CO2 production over the next few decades is simply wrong.

Well, how about the next few centuries?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2024, 10:14:10 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:13:30 AM

Well, how about the next few centuries?

Nukes will ensure there won't be any more of those.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:18:35 AM

Quote from: DunkingDan on September 22, 2024, 10:11:50 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/2R1NV22.jpeg)

Fairly scary to see decades of change in a graph of 485 million years

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on September 22, 2024, 10:25:17 AM

I heard a bedwetting story on the radio this past week over Microsoft's plan to use nuclear energy to support its AI energy needs.  The source of the nuclear energy?   Three Mile Island, which was the site of 'the worst nuclear disaster in US history' in 1979 I was reminded about three times during the six minute story and interview with a prominent business journalist 

Unsaid in that presentation of this news was the fact that zero people died and that despite the damage to the reactor, there were no noticeable effects to humans or the surrounding environment. 

Very interesting development in this space given the media's uncomfortable role of reporting on AI given it is such a consumer of energy. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: DunkingDan on September 22, 2024, 10:35:03 AM

Quote from: MarqHusker on September 22, 2024, 10:25:17 AM

I heard a bedwetting story on the radio this past week over Microsoft's plan to use nuclear energy to support its AI energy needs.  The source of the nuclear energy?  Three Mile Island, which was the site of 'the worst nuclear disaster in US history' in 1979 I was reminded about three times during the six minute story and interview with a prominent business journalist

Unsaid in that presentation of this news was the fact that zero people died and that despite the damage to the reactor, there were no noticeable effects to humans or the surrounding environment.

Very interesting development in this space given the media's uncomfortable role of reporting on AI given it is such a consumer of energy.

Wonder what would have happened if operations had just let the plant operate (shut down) as it would have without interfering.

Not jumping on you, just the fear mongers and pointing towards the stupidity of their management.

I am glad they are restarting it, as I am glad to see TVA and the Govt. is finally doing something with the Oak Ridge site. 8 years to late, meaning they should of started at least that long ago. I keep hearing Belafonte (sp) in Alabama may be competed as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: DunkingDan on September 22, 2024, 10:39:59 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:18:35 AM

Fairly scary to see decades of change in a graph of 485 million years

Its called by some 'Mother Nature". It's always changed and it always will, until the end of the age.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 10:42:58 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:13:30 AM

Well, how about the next few centuries?

We might have fusion ca. 2070, maybe.  Too late if the models are right.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: DunkingDan on September 22, 2024, 10:53:54 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:18:35 AM

Fairly scary to see decades of change in a graph of 485 million years

(https://i.imgur.com/QeD1G1w.png)
Strictly speaking, ‘global temperature’ is not a physically meaningful quantity; there are only local temperatures, ranging at any given time from about -80°C to +40°C, which are then averaged to produce a ‘global’ figure. This average is then regarded as a temperature itself, ‘as if the out-of-equilibrium climate system has only one temperature’. But ‘The temperature field of the Earth as a whole is not thermodynamically representable by a single temperature’, and tiny trends in average temperature provide ‘no basis for concluding that the atmosphere as a whole is either warming or cooling’ (Essex et al., 2007). Roger Pielke &amp; Thomas Chase
Roger Pielke &amp; Thomas Chase
Roger Pielke & Thomas Chase (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sci;303/5665/1771b) argue that ‘Changes in global heat storage provide a more appropriate metric to monitor global warming than temperature alone’.
Note that even local average temperatures are generally unknown. At most weather stations there is only one temperature measurement a day. Some stations use a maximum and minimum thermometer, and the mean of the daily maximum and daily minimum temperature is then considered to be an average. Modern statistics, however, does not recognize such an ‘average’, which can depart significantly from a genuine average, derived from, say, hourly readings. William Gray (2008b, pp. 5-6) reports:
Quote
Quote

Quote

if you compare this [max/min] average with the average of the 24 hourly readings from one midnight to another, you get a large bias, which for the average of 24 New Zealand weather stations was +0.5ºC for a typical summer day with a range of +2.6ºC to -0.4ºC and an average of +0.9ºC with a range of +1.9ºC to -0.9ºC for a typical winter day. The positive bias of the max/min average over the mean hourly value can thus be larger than the claimed effects of greenhouse warming.

Other potential sources of error in ground-based measurements include contamination by urban heating effects (due to the replacement of vegetation with heat-absorbing asphalt and concrete), disproportionate concentration of thermometers in urban areas, changes in instrumentation, changes in station and instrument locations, loss of stations, missing monthly data, and changes in the time of day when thermometers are read.
The number of weather stations worldwide has fallen sharply in the past two decades. When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, more than half the world’s weather stations were closed in just four years, which means that today’s average can’t really be compared with that from the 1980s. Commenting on the decline in the number of ground stations since the 1970s, especially in Siberia, Fred Singer (2008, p. 8) writes:
Quote
Quote

Quote

Ideally, the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude – 2,592 grid boxes in all. With the decline in stations, the number of grid boxes covered also declined – from 1,200 to 600, a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent. Further, the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 22, 2024, 10:54:47 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:18:35 AM

Fairly scary to see decades of change in a graph of 485 million years

so, did they actually capture the earth's climate?

or simply the global mean surface temp?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 11:05:44 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 22, 2024, 10:54:47 AM

so, did they actually capture the earth's climate?

or simply the global mean surface temp?

Probably neither, but certainly not the former.  One could in theory approximate global mean T.  You'd need reliable sensors every 100 miles or so in a grid I'd guess.

The term climate is not really something one can measure in any absolute sense.  It could be rainier, or drier, or windier, or less humid, etc., all factors related to climate.

About a third, or more, in the US think the whole thing is poppycock, made up to make money for some folks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2024, 11:11:23 AM

Doomsday may be delayed at Antarctica’s most vulnerable glacier | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/doomsday-may-be-delayed-antarctica-s-most-vulnerable-glacier)

A lot of maybes and coulds and mights in this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2024, 01:40:06 PM

Quote from: DunkingDan on September 22, 2024, 10:11:50 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/2R1NV22.jpeg)

Quick question...

At which points during these 485M years did the earth support a technologically advanced society of 8M human beings who all needed to be fed?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: DunkingDan on September 22, 2024, 02:58:18 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 22, 2024, 10:18:35 AM

Fairly scary to see decades of change in a graph of 485 million years

Here is something else for you to think about concerning temperatures since we already see that there is problem with the data

(https://i.imgur.com/BFxi7N9.png)
 An example of a well-sited and well-maintained station.

 The graph shows temperatures from 1880 to the present.

(https://i.imgur.com/3155MeJ.png)



This site in Marysville, California, has been around for about
the same amount of time, but has been encroached upon by growth,
producing a warming bias so large that the site is useless.


This not even considering to get a true idea as to an areas temperature you need temps from various heights. Nor is it considering that the data is now including more and more measurements from the 2nd  example and less from stations like the 1st example

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2024, 10:02:07 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/ojX4NJ4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2024, 10:08:21 AM

With this kind of storm surge combined with the very high tides we're seeing, there is going to be a whole lot of flooding around here.

(https://i.imgur.com/v6OjFVK.jpeg)

(https://i.imgur.com/txyBgBs.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2024, 01:12:35 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/dybCwP1.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2024, 01:33:00 PM

La Grange?  Do they have a lotta nice girls down there?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2024, 01:33:40 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2024, 01:33:00 PM

La Grange?  Do they have a lotta nice girls down there?

You may have a point ....

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2024, 06:51:55 AM

There is near hysteria in the local news (on line) about this storm, I don't recall it being like this in previous occasions (my memory is short).  It's mainly about flooding, which I agree is a potential issue no doubt, but they really seem to be hyping it heavily.

I'm not sure exactly what I'd do about flooding ahead of time other than maybe some sand bags if my house was near a creek or had water issues in the past.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2024, 07:35:16 AM

Stores here are out of...

.


Toilet paper.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 25, 2024, 07:57:28 AM

Already coming down in buckets here.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2024, 08:03:56 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 25, 2024, 07:57:28 AM

Already coming down in buckets here. 

Looks like you're getting some very early outer bands. Nothing here.


(https://i.imgur.com/Y137Qor.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2024, 08:55:23 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/25/sam-altman-backed-nuclear-startup-oklo-to-start-site-work-for-idaho-microreactor.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2024, 09:33:47 AM

There is a high pressure area in the Atlantic that keeps pushing this thing further West. I feel bad for that Big Bend area to our North. They have been getting hammered up there lately. Good thing it's not as populated as the rest of the State.

(https://i.imgur.com/qgYXCVt.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2024, 12:21:27 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/5OD6HVb.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2024, 02:06:32 PM

Outer bands starting to hit here. No appreciable wind yet.

(https://i.imgur.com/aaZyhD5.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2024, 02:09:25 PM

We're having sporadic rain, the center of that storm is a LONG way off still.  Maybe these are outer outer outer bands.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2024, 02:40:24 PM

No. Just normal rain for you right now. Helene won't start touching you until Friday sometime.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2024, 02:53:50 PM

Still no measurable rain at my house in about a month, in case y'all were wondering.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2024, 02:55:53 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 25, 2024, 02:53:50 PM

Still no measurable rain at my house in about a month, in case y'all were wondering.

Just a month? I think we might not have gotten any measurable rain since winter :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2024, 02:56:29 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 25, 2024, 02:53:50 PM

Still no measurable rain at my house in about a month, in case y'all were wondering.

Since you haven't mentioned it, I haven't wondered.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2024, 02:58:20 PM

Well, now you can wonder.  But, you don't have to, since I told you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2024, 05:03:38 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/puziBa4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2024, 05:15:24 PM

Raining quite hard here, and very dark.  We're 400-500 miles from the storm center?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 25, 2024, 05:23:59 PM

I have spent most of the last two business days at work preparing for the storm.  Planning branch closings, putting sandbags down in certain banking centers, preparing for alternate places to work, making sure ATMs are properly loaded and protected, etc.  

That’s what’s weird about hurricanes. You have so much time to prepare, but they also take so long to pass through.

I grew up in the Midwest where it was a tornado. Not much warning, but it was over in two or three minutes.

Psychologically I think hurricanes are worse lol

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2024, 05:31:54 PM

I recall driving back from Atlanta to Cincy back in the day listening to Cincy radio.  A large tornado had ripped through the northern suburbs, where our house was, or close by, as it turned out.  I really didn't know if we'd have a house when we got back.  The track they described was accurate and apparently it touched down about a mile from us and move NE.  It ripped up new homes down to the basement as it passed, it was a real mess, but not for us.

We just had lightning strikes instead.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 06:30:57 AM

"Folks, the forecast for widespread wind damage and power outages continues, but I'm getting increasingly concerned about the potential for 45-60 mph sustained winds with gusts over 70 mph. It's possible there could be some 80 mph gusts early on Friday morning. This is a big deal," Severe Weather Team 2 Chief Meteorologist Brad Nitz said.  >> [color=var(--blue-link)]https://2wsb.tv/3TJSdIh (https://2wsb.tv/3TJSdIh?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3GLSBMAsiMEwxlOx8XoGDr2E-f7NY7tGAU6_QC4HK5J5HqwPA6nBBxlEw_aem_g2TGh3ei9E4_uNkP328Y3A)[/url][/font][/size][/color]

At the moment, we have light rain and almost no wind.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 26, 2024, 06:58:07 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 06:30:57 AM

"Folks, the forecast for widespread wind damage and power outages continues, but I'm getting increasingly concerned about the potential for 45-60 mph sustained winds with gusts over 70 mph. It's possible there could be some 80 mph gusts early on Friday morning. This is a big deal," Severe Weather Team 2 Chief Meteorologist Brad Nitz said.  >> [color=var(--blue-link)]https://2wsb.tv/3TJSdIh (https://2wsb.tv/3TJSdIh?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3GLSBMAsiMEwxlOx8XoGDr2E-f7NY7tGAU6_QC4HK5J5HqwPA6nBBxlEw_aem_g2TGh3ei9E4_uNkP328Y3A)[/url][/font][/size][/color]

At the moment, we have light rain and almost no wind. 

It’s coming.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 07:05:32 AM

Maybe it slowed down, last night folks were saying it would be here by now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 07:26:51 AM

By now? Not sure what they are looking at.

Nope. Tomorrow.

It hasn't even passed here yet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 07:28:27 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/LAWp5f0.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 07:52:05 AM

Atlanta should start seeing some outer bands later - around 2PM according to the weather team at Wink.

(https://i.imgur.com/c5KNH64.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 07:53:17 AM

I thought today was Friday.  Duh.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 07:54:23 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/FJ84ZQk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2024, 07:55:44 AM

batten down the hatches

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 08:04:10 AM

Shoot, it's Thursday, at least I don't have to go to work tomorrow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 26, 2024, 08:12:55 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/5ESpAaA.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 26, 2024, 08:14:32 AM

It’s heading your way CD.  They move slowly.  

The blue dot is my location.  We have gusty winds and off/on downpours.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 08:14:34 AM

The huge band to the northeast is impressive, to me.  Is that another system that coincides with the hurricane?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 08:53:33 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 26, 2024, 07:55:44 AM

batten down the hatches

We're fine here. That's the weird thing about hurricanes.

The sun is shining brightly at the moment. Probably not gonna rain again until around 2PM. That's when we get peak winds too.

25-40 MPH sustained. 60-70 MPH gusts.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 09:11:28 AM

Water is powerful. This is from NC.

Beach homes topple into Atlantic after erosion and storms | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/beach-homes-topple-into-atlantic-after-erosion-and-storms/vi-AA1rculA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=ca578ef2df77471d86b96fd0de41d2eb&ei=70)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 09:13:05 AM

This one is weird.

(https://i.imgur.com/FSRt8Bl.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 10:03:18 AM

For @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) and @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) and others.

(https://i.imgur.com/TO1HcJM.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2024, 10:14:01 AM

I was on St. Pete's beach years ago with my daughters

7 tornados reported in the county in 24 hrs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 10:22:44 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 26, 2024, 10:14:01 AM

I was on St. Pete's beach years ago with my daughters

7 tornados reported in the county in 24 hrs

No thanks.  We've had a couple of tornadoes through here over the years.  We're just a little too far south to really be in tornado alley though.

But go 40 miles up the road to Jarrell, TX and sadly it's a very different story.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2024, 10:24:43 AM

well, these tornados near the beach weren't the big nasty tornados we get in Nebraska/Iowa

still dangerous

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 10:25:45 AM

This is a spooky image, captured on film in Austin just over 100 years ago in 1922. 

(https://i.imgur.com/vPCd1Ej.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 11:31:43 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/PhWmRZO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 11:42:06 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 11:31:43 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/PhWmRZO.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/3G7yqNA.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 26, 2024, 12:06:10 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 10:25:45 AM

This is a spooky image, captured on film in Austin just over 100 years ago in 1922.

Something right out of OZ/Kansas damn shame something like that couldn't drop a house on Pelosi ;D
Good Luck,Best Wishes,God Bless to any in Helene's path hope it peters out like a Brian Ferentz led offensive drive

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 12:10:23 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on September 26, 2024, 12:06:10 PM

Something right out of OZ/Kansas damn shame something like that couldn't drop a house on Pelosi ;D
Good Luck,Best Wishes,God Bless to any in Helene's path hope it peters out like a Brian Ferentz led offensive drive

That's the state capitol building in Austin, not the one in DC. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 26, 2024, 12:40:58 PM

A man can dream can't he?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 01:32:48 PM

Starting to get really windy now. No additional rain yet. I'll be pumping the pool down tomorrow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 26, 2024, 01:35:44 PM

Pump it down now and use it as a cistern

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 02:03:53 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/RN5u1Wm.png)

Due West from us now. Still a CAT 2.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 03:15:43 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/YooPqQj.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 03:19:08 PM

And this means things are getting serious:

(https://i.imgur.com/YIJch6v.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 03:22:41 PM

Helene looked a lot like that yellow area did 10 days ago.

(https://i.imgur.com/yRfuCGS.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 26, 2024, 04:48:30 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 03:22:41 PM

Helene looked a lot like that yellow area did 10 days ago.

(https://i.imgur.com/yRfuCGS.png)

What are you getting there Badge?  We are getting nasty squalls ( super high gusts and downpours) followed by still.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2024, 04:56:47 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 26, 2024, 04:48:30 PM

What are you getting there Badge?  We are getting nasty squalls ( super high gusts and downpours) followed by still.

Just a lot of wind so far. We got about 1.5-2 inches overnight but nothing all day. Supposed to start up again soon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 26, 2024, 05:30:36 PM

https://streamable.com/hqcx6z



Like this.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 05:49:40 PM

Some livestreams:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqSFZo_lxXM

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2024, 05:53:31 PM

Looks like the storm might pass right between Atlanta and Athens.  

(https://i.imgur.com/BxIDsLc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on September 26, 2024, 06:53:42 PM

The energy on this will hammer us w wind and rain in Indy tomorrow.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2024, 07:31:38 PM

Might be Cat 1 here.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 26, 2024, 07:35:02 PM

Looks nice here...

(https://i.imgur.com/cIc6t34.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 06:58:54 AM

Steady rain.  16 mph wind.  Not much.

I looked at the radar, the storm passed us during the night, so I slept through whatever happened.  It's supposed to clear up in a couple hours, which will be nice.  I don't see any trees down around me.  Traffic is very light.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 08:34:59 AM

It's still cloudy here but clearing, I don't see any trees down or limbs down anywhere near me.  I can see a lot of trees from here.  I checked on my neighbor's unit and deck and it's all as I left it yesterday.  

I think we missed anything really bad except flooding (which didn't happen anywhere I can see). 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 27, 2024, 09:35:45 AM

I happen to be starting my weekend in Atlanta.

Flying in direct from California yeaterday, I was surprised they let us lift off because while we were taxi-ing the tarmac the pilots got on the intercom and announced that once we take off we might get diverted away from Atlanta. In other words, taking off without clear landing.

As we neared Atlanta the last 30 minutes were very bumpy. Lots of rain overnight. The airport’s Hilton location where I am spending the first night filled up with travelers stranded by canceled outbound flights.

(https://i.imgur.com/TBMULRz.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 09:57:44 AM

Before the storm, the Taylor County Sheriff’s Office warned people who did not evacuate to write their contact information on either an arm or leg so that victims could be identified once the hurricane passed.

"If you or someone you know chose not to evacuate, PLEASE write your name, birthday and important information on your arm or leg in A PERMANENT MARKER so that you can be identified and family notified," the sheriff’s office said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on September 27, 2024, 10:10:25 AM

Just trying to help 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:11:38 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 26, 2024, 07:35:02 PM

Looks nice here...

...and then you start shaking without notice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 10:11:53 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 09:57:44 AM

Before the storm, the Taylor County Sheriff’s Office warned people who did not evacuate to write their contact information on either an arm or leg so that victims could be identified once the hurricane passed.

"If you or someone you know chose not to evacuate, PLEASE write your name, birthday and important information on your arm or leg in A PERMANENT MARKER so that you can be identified and family notified," the sheriff’s office said.

Wow.. How hard did your area get hit Badge? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 27, 2024, 10:12:30 AM

Finally breezy and rainy in Columbus. The most glorious time of the year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:15:36 AM

We got about a 7' storm surge, so some of the houses/condos closer to the water got close to or barely submerged. We sit at 14' so no issues for us. We had a little landscape damage, and my neighbor lost a gutter and a few downspouts. 

No damage to my home. I turned it into a fortress after Ian came through. 

Did not lose power. The power company did a great job fortifying the grid after Ian forced a complete rebuild.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 10:21:36 AM

The storm seems to have weakened faster than expected after landfall, nearly as I can tell, in terms of winds, or we we're lucky it went to the east of us, or both.  The rain of course was heavy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 10:31:34 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 27, 2024, 10:12:30 AM

Finally breezy and rainy in Columbus. The most glorious time of the year.

lol.. is this sarcasm or do you actually like this? In Cleveland, I greatly dislike now until May. My body craves sunshine and it seemingly disappears for 90% of the foreseeable future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:32:49 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 10:21:36 AM

The storm seems to have weakened faster than expected after landfall, nearly as I can tell, in terms of winds, or we we're lucky it went to the east of us, or both.  The rain of course was heavy.

It was heavier on the East (always is), so yeah, ATL dodged a bullet. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 10:32:59 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:15:36 AM

We got about a 7' storm surge, so some of the houses/condos closer to the water got close to or barely submerged. We sit at 14' so no issues for us. We had a little landscape damage, and my neighbor lost a gutter and a few downspouts.

No damage to my home. I turned it into a fortress after Ian came through.

Did not lose power. The power company did a great job fortifying the grid after Ian forced a complete rebuild.

Good to hear.. glad you're safe an no great messes to deal with.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:33:48 AM

Quote from: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 10:31:34 AM

lol.. is this sarcasm or do you actually like this? In Cleveland, I greatly dislike now until May. My body craves sunshine and it seemingly disappears for 90% of the foreseeable future.

One of the many reasons why we left Illinois.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on September 27, 2024, 10:34:26 AM

Quote from: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 10:31:34 AM

lol.. is this sarcasm or do you actually like this? In Cleveland, I greatly dislike now until May. My body craves sunshine and it seemingly disappears for 90% of the foreseeable future.

Lol well I'm Irish so my body craves clouds and rain. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:35:05 AM

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 27, 2024, 10:34:26 AM

Lol well I'm Irish so my body craves clouds and rain.

Well, yeah. We know you're weird, but we still love you.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:43:40 AM

DeSantis confirms 2 dead following Helene's impact on Big Bend (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/09/27/desantis-confirms-2-dead-from-helene/?utm_source=winknewsapp&utm_medium=pushalert&utm_campaign=2024-09-27-Hurricane-After)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:45:38 AM

We probably had at least 10 tornado warnings come through last night.

One passed us by, about 1500 feet to the East. They were all moving South to North at 65-75 MPH. Strength varied, as did their time on the ground.

Tornadoes concern me more that the hurricane itself.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:59:45 AM

Dear Safe Harbor Burnt Store Members,
 
 We want to share a brief update in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
 
 The marina sustained minor damage. Utilities and fuel remain shut off. Safety is our top priority; the marina will remain closed until we have had time to fully assess the damage.
 
 Normal business operations remain closed. We are working diligently to inform Members about any damage their vessels may have endured. Thank you for your patience as we continue to monitor the damage and initiate our action plan to re-open marina operations and restore power.
 
 We will update you as soon as we have more information.
 
 Regards,
 
 Jaret Rogers | General Manager
 SAFE HARBOR BURNT STORE

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 11:10:55 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 10:33:48 AM

One of the many reasons why we left Illinois.

it's why i traveled so much in my mid-20's and moved to the equator for two years to Singapore. My problem now is i really want my kids to have midwest schooling, especially in the Cleveland area so I'm stuck here for a while.. Just have to fly south more often in the winter. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 11:25:22 AM

I hear some chainsaws working maybe a block north of us, could be normal stuff though.  I have not been out yet.  Still cloudy.

Some trees in the park are soft wood types and get split open in winds pretty often.

They just installed another of these "neighborhood information screens" near us, flat panel displays that show stuff around the area, touch sensitive, they will even take your photo if you want.  Pretty neat really, the first one was squashed by a car, so this one is two feet "inland" and has a protective pole.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 11:39:04 AM

How stupid is someone who takes his boat out yesterday? He put Coast Guard crew at risk due to his stupidity. Did he deserve to be rescued? Everyone with a brain knows you don't go out in seas like we had yesterday. As a licensed captain, this really upsets me.

VIDEO: Coast Guard rescues man, dog from distressed sailboat battered by Helene | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/video-coast-guard-dramatic-rescue-sanibel-island-florida-clearwater)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2024, 11:52:36 AM

Quote from: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 10:31:34 AM

lol.. is this sarcasm or do you actually like this? In Cleveland, I greatly dislike now until May. My body craves sunshine and it seemingly disappears for 90% of the foreseeable future.

I definitely prefer cooler weather, and don't mind when it's overcast. I tend to be sensitive to heat, and seek shade when it's sunny out as I seem to overheat just from being in direct sun even if it's not all that hot out. 

The worst part of the year for me in CA is pretty much July through the first half of September. Too hot for me. 

But the rest of the year is perfect. 

Compared to the Midwest, where Jul->Sep is horrible (and humid, and mosquitoes), but Dec->Feb is also horrible, I think I get the better end of the bargain weather-wise lol. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2024, 11:54:32 AM

July and August are about the only times I actually like Southern California weather, and even then that's only during the day.  Too cold at night, and the rest of the year. :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 11:59:04 AM

My wife and I did not care for the constant maritime haze over SD, and she didn't like how cool it was even during the day in May.  She said she wouldn't want to live near there.  I'm pretty flexible, but I do like blue sky and sunshine.  Usually.  Until it gets roasting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 12:10:00 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2024, 11:52:36 AM

Compared to the Midwest, where Jul->Sep is horrible (and humid, and mosquitoes), but Dec->Feb is also horrible, I think I get the better end of the bargain weather-wise lol.

July to September this year was definitely remarkably warm and in many cases very humid. I don't love it, but I also think experience 2 years where every single day was 88-92 degrees and always 100% humidity, made these months here a little easier.. and either of those options is far better than 5 degrees with terrible windchill, snow and not seeing the sun for 29 out of 30 days. 

Ideally i'd like to live in Naples, Fl from mid-October to mid-April and the rest of the year in Cleveland. So basically here for baseball season, then Vanderbilt beach the rest of the year. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 12:15:26 PM

Traffic in Naples kept me from looking to buy there. It's nuts. I have had enough experience with bad traffic in the Chicago area.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 12:27:32 PM

Traffic is likely to be bad near any nicer place, and costs will be higher, demand and all that.

Traffic rarely impacts us here, even though it's "bad".  Even when we drove our friend to the airport a few weeks back at 5 PM, it was "tolerable", better than I expected really.  The side streets are usually OK unless there is construction.

And we avoid going out near 5 PM if we can.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 12:39:18 PM

Traffic here is generally more tolerable than places like Naples, Sarasota and the other side.

Then everything changes between November and May.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2024, 12:43:36 PM

Quote from: utee94 on September 27, 2024, 11:54:32 AM

July and August are about the only times I actually like Southern California weather, and even then that's only during the day.  Too cold at night, and the rest of the year. :)

Death Valley is in Southern California. Maybe that would suit you...

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 11:59:04 AM

My wife and I did not care for the constant maritime haze over SD, and she didn't like how cool it was even during the day in May.  She said she wouldn't want to live near there.  I'm pretty flexible, but I do like blue sky and sunshine.  Usually.  Until it gets roasting.

That time of year is "May Gray" followed by "June Gloom". Where I am a little off the coast and with some small foothills in between me and the water, it ends up being cool and overcast in the morning but burns off by midday. If you are closer to the cast and without a barrier, it can persist most of the day. 

I actually love that time of year. Great weather for going to play golf in the morning when it's a little cooler and overcast, and then by the time the round is done it's beautiful and sunny and warm. Great weather to go hit up a brewery. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 12:56:55 PM

Pictures from my friends, up the road a bit, in Punta Gorda Isles. One of the reasons we didn't buy in that community.

(https://i.imgur.com/b0lnNaa.jpeg)

(https://i.imgur.com/yktusI7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 02:18:42 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 12:56:55 PM

Pictures from my friends, up the road a bit, in Punta Gorda Isles. One of the reasons we didn't buy in that community.

[img width=500 height=374.988]https://i.imgur.com/b0lnNaa.jpeg[/img]

[img width=500 height=374.988]https://i.imgur.com/yktusI7.png[/img]

really like that area.. has GREAT water access from a lot of those homes.. but this is definitely the downside to that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 02:25:36 PM

I'm glad my expertise in stormwater management led me to where we live now, in Burnt Store Marina.

The marina took a beating, I'm told. I haven't been down to see it. My boat is sitting in a repair shop off-site and it's fine.

Downtown Naples, Fort Myers and Fort Myers Beach got hit hard. Lots of flooding.

Downtown Punta Gorda is a bloody mess.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 02:27:25 PM

This is US Route 41 in Punta Gorda, about 2 miles South from Charlotte Harbor. Lots of water.

(https://i.imgur.com/IgvLBEL.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 02:31:29 PM

I put a red dot on my house, on the far right. We are on high ground, such as that is, here. Elevation 14'.

(https://i.imgur.com/TP4a2yd.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 02:38:14 PM

Unicoi County Hospital:

(https://i.imgur.com/GnkSkGN.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2024, 02:40:46 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/8PDmEie.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 02:50:44 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 02:31:29 PM

I put a red dot on my house, on the far right. We are on high ground, such as that is, here. Elevation 14'.

[img width=500 height=237.981]https://i.imgur.com/TP4a2yd.jpeg[/img]

Smart move. Very cool area. isn't just east of you unbuildable land? Seems like a very nice and quiet area

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2024, 04:22:05 PM

I still do not like that thing in the Carribean.

(https://i.imgur.com/jvkMHKj.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 27, 2024, 04:40:03 PM

I heard that the Hell is Real sign blew away. 

(https://www.cincinnati.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2023/11/30/PCIN/71752958007-img-7266.jpg?width=600&height=764&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2024, 04:50:03 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 27, 2024, 04:40:03 PM

I heard that the Hell is Real sign blew away.

(https://www.cincinnati.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2023/11/30/PCIN/71752958007-img-7266.jpg?width=600&height=764&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp)

I'll bet the owner will get real pissed when the insurance claim is denied due to an act of God :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 27, 2024, 05:50:36 PM

I doubt very much that it's insured, it was looking pretty rough there by the end. 

(https://www.dispatch.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2023/08/15/PCIN/70596846007-20230815-hell-is-real-billboard-003.JPG?crop=4049,2289,x0,y205&width=3200&height=1810&format=pjpg&auto=webp)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 27, 2024, 07:24:35 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2024, 04:50:03 PM

I'll bet the owner will get real pissed when the insurance claim is denied due to an act of God :57:

That right there is funny I don't care who the hell you are. That guy's prolly an oxymoron

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 27, 2024, 07:34:26 PM

Quote from: SuperMario on September 27, 2024, 10:31:34 AM

lol.. is this sarcasm or do you actually like this? In Cleveland, I greatly dislike now until May. My body craves sunshine and it seemingly disappears for 90% of the foreseeable future.

This summer has had alot of overcast,gloomy humid days w/o rain we are way below seasonal average. Cindy likes to tan but couldn't believe how hot it got w/o the sun.Seems like it hangs around to - we use to get moderate rainfall for a day or two on and off then sunshine now it seems to spritz and spit for like 4 days then god knows what

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 07:45:15 AM

In Cincy, it was Jan-March I loathed.  I was used to March being "springlike", and it never was there.  Now it is here, again.

July and August were pretty bad there as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 07:47:10 AM

How does climate change impact hurricanes like Helene? (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4904495-climcate-change-hurricanes-intensifying-how/)

But if the planet warms up by about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels, a hurricane’s maximum wind speeds could increase by about 5 percent, according to Tom Knutson, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab.

Noting the increase in wind speeds, earlier this year scientists suggested adding a Category 6 (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4450003-scientists-propose-a-category-6-as-hurricanes-gain-in-intensity-with-climate-change/) to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, saying that the currently used categories 1 through 5 are “inadequate” as hurricanes continue to intensify. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 07:48:32 AM

We'll be very fortunate if the measured warming stays at 2°C, we're really headed to worse, and the things being done are pretty obviously not doing much to make it better.

Some realism would be nice in all of this, but that would encourage folks to throw up their hands and stop throwing money at it as much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 08:14:42 AM

I'm seeing photos of western NC and eastern TN that are horrendous.  I know some of these areas pretty well, and I can't imagine some places being under that much water, and I-40 is washed out.  Someone claimed Asheville is entirely isolated by ground travel, and western NC is "closed".  This one was bad (duh) with the rain.  A couple of dams are reportedly nearing failure.  Below is a hospital with folks isolated on the roof.

(https://i.imgur.com/4kpsybQ.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 08:24:22 AM

Before below and after standing on I-40, looking down at US 74 with the Blue Ridge Parkway bridge in the distance. Asheville, NC.

(https://i.imgur.com/39DMcfj.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/dpSpv2L.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 28, 2024, 08:31:13 AM

(https://image.tmdb.org/t/p/original/pHEx1G4yTacy4Ux2zoHzxHKvDZi.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 09:02:19 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/GSYqamH.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 09:15:35 AM

How does climate change impact hurricanes like Helene? (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4904495-climcate-change-hurricanes-intensifying-how/)

Benitez-Nelson said that to prevent climate-related harm going forward, “the biggest thing that we can do is reduce emissions.”


I personally find this sort of hand waving a trifle annoying.  It's aking to saying "People have to be smarter."  OK, sure, that might be nice I guess, but it's not going to happen, so why propose it as any kind of solution?  I've proposed before a rather simple, if expensive "plan" to replace every coal burning power plant in the US with nuclear.  The thing is, it wouldn't reduce our CO2 emissions by much at all, it would be a step, but a very small one.  Would it be worth it?  There are other negatives associated with coal of course, and it would take a long time to achieve this as things stand.

Or, we can just say "reduce emissions",  and then say "wind and solar".  Yay.  If only people were smarter.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 09:45:40 AM

We need some Saharan dust.

(https://i.imgur.com/vnzWtSK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 09:58:57 AM

Dammit.

Tennessee dam near 'imminent' failure after heavy rain from Helene | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/tennessee-dam-near-imminent-failure-after-heavy-rain-from-helene/vi-AA1rmt5d?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=1035f61b56c4421a961e26ab31fdfbf8&ei=13)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 10:39:32 AM

This is gold.

https://twitter.com/RareImagery/status/1722748593675870455?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1722748593675870455%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= (https://twitter.com/RareImagery/status/1722748593675870455?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1722748593675870455|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 12:07:44 PM

I don't think either of those guys knows much about science.  It's the usual political word games happening, not a serious discussion.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 12:14:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 12:07:44 PM

I don't think either of those guys knows much about science.  It's the usual political word games happening, not a serious discussion.

You sure about that?

I'm sure that one of those guys knows NOTHING about science. He is a clown with a BA in political "science".

Then there's the other guy.

(https://i.imgur.com/4QhezEp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 12:19:09 PM

I didn't find his comments to be probative are of any substance on the topic of climate change.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 12:21:18 PM

He was asking questions, and he rebuffed the answers.

I thought it was hilarious. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 12:33:30 PM

I agree with Gore, which is highly unusual, it's not a serious conversation.  And I think Gore is an idiot.

The question about CO2 and modern climate change is unrelated to whatever happened a million years ago.  And yes, CO2 levels have been much higher in the distant past.

So what?  Does that mean climate change isn't real, and caused by humans due to GH gases being emitted?  Of course not.  Does it mean it IS real and caused by humans?  Nope.   It's an irrelevant discussion, to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 28, 2024, 12:33:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 12:07:44 PM

I don't think either of those guys knows much about science.  It's the usual political word games happening, not a serious discussion.

Ya but kerry was babbling 20 yrs ago,remember in 2000 or 2004 when he was stumping in Toledo then told the crowd "I'm am all about that Buckeye Football". Then he jumped the state line and started stumping in Mi then told the crowd "I'm am all about that Buckeye Football"

Guy has been punch drunk and out of his element for quite some time. It appears he was taking pointers from Brandon there

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on September 28, 2024, 12:36:50 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 12:33:30 PM

So what?  Does that mean climate change isn't real, and caused by humans due to GH gases being emitted?  Of course not.  Does it mean it IS real and caused by humans?  Nope.  It's an irrelevant discussion, to me.

It's ripping down all the freakin' trees then replacing them with knee high shrubs everywhere that's causing problems

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 01:08:59 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on September 28, 2024, 12:36:50 PM

It's ripping down all the freakin' trees then replacing them with knee high shrubs solar panels everywhere that's causing problems

Fixed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 01:19:15 PM

THE QUESTION:  If we spend all this money, how much will mean global T change vs if we don’t?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 01:33:19 PM

Nobody has that answer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 01:39:00 PM

I think I would get close.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2024, 01:43:27 PM

Have at it. I'm all ears (screen).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2024, 02:00:17 PM

Maybe a tenth or two degrees Celsius.  Maybe. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 30, 2024, 07:09:17 AM

I was curious about how much rain caused all the flooding around Western NC. It looks like about 14-20 inches in my places. I would have guessed a lot more. We probably got 10 or so inches immediately following Beryl, and then another dozen over the following week. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 30, 2024, 07:15:33 AM

I think most of the damage is from rivers and creeks getting way out of their banks and eroding highways and causing mudslides.  And of course all the water that falls on nearby mountains is channeled down below through said creeks which couldn't hold it.  I'm guessing in spots the rainfall was much more than a foot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on September 30, 2024, 07:23:04 AM

I guess that makes sense. We’re almost completely flat here, so all the water spreads out, filling the low areas and rivers and creeks first. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 30, 2024, 07:33:37 AM

The worst floods seem to be in mountainous areas, I think.  For one thing, you get unusual amounts of water cascading rapidly "downhill" with enhanced erosion.  Still(er) water is less of a problem in terms of washing out areas of concern.

And towns get built in valleys (usually) which means having a river nearby often as not, I can't think of a mountain town in the east in a valley without a river.  Highlands doesn't, but it's at elevation, not in a valley.  Franklin, NC has two rivers joining to make a third.

At least the two dams of concern have held, so far.  I know Badge doesn't like dams, but I THINK the destruction would have been much worse without TVA dams in that area.  That was a primary reason for the TVA.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 30, 2024, 07:37:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 30, 2024, 07:33:37 AM

At least the two dams of concern have held, so far.  I know Badge doesn't like dams, but I THINK the destruction would have been much worse without TVA dams in that area.  That was a primary reason for the TVA.

Navigation and power generation were the primary reasons. Flood control was secondary.

It was part of the "New Deal" plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 30, 2024, 08:01:37 AM

The Unified Development of the Tennessee River plan stressed TVA was to provide flood control, navigation and electricity for the region. TVA's dams are tangible evidence of its primary mission: improving life in the Tennessee Valley.

A lot of TVA dams are on unnavigable rivers.  Electricity was a major goal, for sure, Fontana Dam was built to power aluminum production in Alcoa during the war as I understand it.  The floods preTVA were pretty bad.  Of course, that would encourage folks to build higher up instead of in a "flood plain".  

My cousin lives near Murphy, NC, she says they are undamaged but were without power for a while.  This is in far western NC, so likely avoided the worst of it.  I spent a lot of time in many of these towns over the years, the photos I see are incredible.  I'm looking for a real charity somewhere, not sure about some of these.  We have a brief trip sculeduled into the north GA mountains midOctober, word is where we're headed is fine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on September 30, 2024, 08:04:53 AM

My grandparents had a farm 3 miles outside Sevierville.  There was a creek running through it, easily wadeable normally.  But it was fed off Bluff Mountain and would completely swamp the bottomland.  My grandad told the DoT how high it could get when they built the four lane highway and they didn't believe him at first.  I've seen it within 30 feet of the house. 300 yards from the creek normally.  It would back up from the highway bridge when I saw it, almost a dam with a narrow cut for the water.

Small creek with a large feed area, headwaters maybe 15 miles distant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 30, 2024, 09:24:38 PM

(https://apalacheresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/chimneyrock-hurricane.jpg?w=1200)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2024, 01:26:55 PM

That is unreal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2024, 01:28:58 PM

Another one? Might be, but we're hopeful it fizzles.

(https://i.imgur.com/jVlgWgl.png)

Florida on long-range alert for upcoming Gulf tropical threat (accuweather.com) (https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/florida-on-long-range-alert-for-upcoming-gulf-tropical-threat/1698363)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2024, 01:32:29 PM

My favorite place. I hope she can make it or move to higher ground.


Chef Jeanie Roland, who owns The Perfect Caper, was less fortunate. She posted on her Facebook page that the restaurant sustained substantial damage and will not be open until further notice, adding that a team of workers is performing the cleanup, and the building will be remediated. “We will be back in action before we know it,” Roland said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2024, 10:01:43 PM

should obviously move to higher ground

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 08:14:08 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 01, 2024, 10:01:43 PM

should obviously move to higher ground

The problem is that the cost to build is very expensive right now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2024, 08:58:09 AM

and the low ground is the "location, location, location?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 09:11:41 AM

It's the downtown on the water, so yeah, that's where most people want to be. Until they don't.

To be fair, this was the highest surge ever recorded for downtown PG.

Almost all the restaurants are closed.

The ER in the hospital is still closed too.

But this is nothing compared to what this storm brought to our friends to the North. North Carolina is horrible. 

PG and other places in Florida will bounce back. Some towns up North are just completely gone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 09:31:25 AM

We like a restaurant with a deck overlooking the water.  So do a lot of people I'm sure, if the food is decent.

So, they build'em so we'll come.

There are a couple places like that in Hilton Head we frequent.  They are on the bay side so somewhat protected.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 09:42:15 AM

There are no water views at the Perfect Caper. It's downtown, but no view. Only a few places actually have water views.

This thing rose to a point that even two miles inland was under water.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 09:45:38 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/NAuDYoY.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 09:53:29 AM

We obviously got rain, but I gather most of it fell at night and I was asleep.  Frankly, without the news, my personal opinion of this would have been just another rain storm, but I am pretty sure I missed a lot of the action.  The 30 inches up on the mountain tops is what "precipitated" these disasters.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 10:28:10 AM

I know nothing about Atlanta drainage, but 11" had to leave a mark somewhere.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 10:30:16 AM

News reports had some flooding north of us, nothing extreme, and trees down here and there.  I was in the park yesterday and noted no tree damage.  Some power was out here and there, not here.  I'm still a bit surprised that the mountains were hit SO hard by this, but they clearly were.  The photos are real.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 02, 2024, 10:36:42 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 02, 2024, 08:58:09 AM

and the low ground is the "location, location, location?

"Sometimes the low road will show you things the high road never could" - Willie Nelson

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 10:45:39 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 10:28:10 AM

I know nothing about Atlanta drainage, but 11" had to leave a mark somewhere.

Flooding here usually is around a creek, Nancy Creek, Peachtree Creek, etc.  The river has a dam above us that usually controls flooding.  The area is rolling hills, so drainage is generally OK if nothing gets stopped up.  The hills of course are nothing like the mountains in NC.

The towns there are along rivers for obvious reasons.  This one somehow was far worse than anything in near recent history.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 10:49:58 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 10:45:39 AM

Flooding here usually is around a creek, Nancy Creek, Peachtree Creek, etc.  The river has a dam above us that usually controls flooding.  The area is rolling hills, so drainage is generally OK if nothing gets stopped up.  The hills of course are nothing like the mountains in NC.

The towns there are along rivers for obvious reasons.  This one somehow was far worse than anything in near recent history.

What River, and where is the damn dam?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 02, 2024, 10:58:36 AM

Southern Ohio definitely got some flooding too. Not to the North Carolina extent, but pretty rough for those affected. Luckily I didn't hit any high water, but there was debris and crap all over the roads. It was mostly annoying because they kept sending flood warning for areas north of where I was, but the worse flooding was south. Not cool, weather service.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 02, 2024, 11:26:45 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/HaRfTEY.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 11:29:26 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2024, 10:49:58 AM

What River, and where is the damn dam?

Chattahoochee River, Lake Lanier (Buford) Dam.

Buford Dam is a dam in Buford, Georgia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford,_Georgia) which is located at the southern end of Lake Lanier (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Lanier),[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-park-4) a reservoir (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reservoir) formed by the construction of the dam in 1956. The dam itself is managed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Corps_of_Engineers).
The dam is made of earth and concrete,[5] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-cook-5) supplemented by three saddle dikes,[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-corps1975-1) and was built to provide a water source for the Atlanta area, power homes, and prevent flooding of the Chattahoochee River (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chattahoochee_River).[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-kerns-6)[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-collier-7)
Electricity from the dam is marketed by the Southeastern Power Administration (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeastern_Power_Administration).[ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-8)




(https://i.imgur.com/akm2JsW.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 11:33:26 AM

We go here for lunch once a month or so, it's quite nice, good food, on the river, nice garden, Canoe Restaurant.  It's south of the dam.

(https://i.imgur.com/8s3hE3A.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 02, 2024, 11:34:29 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 11:29:26 AM

Chattahoochee River, Lake Lanier (Buford) Dam.

Buford Dam is a dam in Buford, Georgia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford,_Georgia) which is located at the southern end of Lake Lanier (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Lanier),[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-park-4) a reservoir (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reservoir) formed by the construction of the dam in 1956. The dam itself is managed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Corps_of_Engineers).
The dam is made of earth and concrete,[5] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-cook-5) supplemented by three saddle dikes,[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-corps1975-1) and was built to provide a water source for the Atlanta area, power homes, and prevent flooding of the Chattahoochee River (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chattahoochee_River).[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-kerns-6)[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-collier-7)
Electricity from the dam is marketed by the Southeastern Power Administration (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeastern_Power_Administration).[ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buford_Dam#cite_note-8)




[img width=500 height=332.992]https://i.imgur.com/akm2JsW.jpeg[/img]

I hear that it gets hotter than a hoochie koochie, way down yonder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2024, 11:38:59 AM

The Song Of The Chattahoochee
[color=var(--black)]Sidney Lanier (https://poets.org/poet/sidney-lanier)
1842 –
1881
[/font][/size][/color]

Out of the hills of Habersham,
Down the valleys of Hall,
I hurry amain to reach the plain,
Run the rapid and leap the fall,
Split at the rock and together again,
Accept my bed, or narrow or wide,
And flee from folly on every side
With a lover's pain to attain the plain
Far from the hills of Habersham,
Far from the valleys of Hall.

All down the hills of Habersham,
All through the valleys of Hall,
The rushes cried 'Abide, abide,'
The willful waterweeds held me thrall,
The laving laurel turned my tide,
The ferns and the fondling grass said 'Stay,'
The dewberry dipped for to work delay,
And the little reeds sighed 'Abide, abide,
Here in the hills of Habersham,
Here in the valleys of Hall.'

High o'er the hills of Habersham,
Veiling the valleys of Hall,
The hickory told me manifold
Fair tales of shade, the poplar tall
Wrought me her shadowy self to hold,
The chestnut, the oak, the walnut, the pine,
Overleaning, with flickering meaning and sign,
Said, 'Pass not, so cold, these manifold
Deep shades of the hills of Habersham,
These glades in the valleys of Hall.'

And oft in the hills of Habersham,
And oft in the valleys of Hall,
The white quartz shone, and the smooth brook-stone
Did bar me of passage with friendly brawl,
And many a luminous jewel lone
-- Crystals clear or a-cloud with mist,
Ruby, garnet and amethyst --
Made lures with the lights of streaming stone
In the clefts of the hills of Habersham,
In the beds of the valleys of Hall.

But oh, not the hills of Habersham,
And oh, not the valleys of Hall
Avail: I am fain for to water the plain.
Downward the voices of Duty call --
Downward, to toil and be mixed with the main,
The dry fields burn, and the mills are to turn,
And a myriad flowers mortally yearn,
And the lordly main from beyond the plain
Calls o'er the hills of Habersham,
Calls through the valleys of Hall.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2024, 08:19:37 PM

Not as bad as the original lyrics to Oh Susanna. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2024, 07:18:07 AM

Lanier is acclaimed as a very good poet, by some anyway.

Ergo, Lake Lanier.  It has a very long shoreline I'm told, much of which is now lake houses.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2024, 07:31:57 AM

Trump, Vance's climate change skepticism spotlighted after Hurricane Helene (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4912932-trump-vance-skepticism-climate-science-hurricane-helene/)

Another opinion, with no plan, no fix, no reality, just complaining.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2024, 11:48:46 AM

We are in for a lot of rain next week. 6-10" is the forecast.

For reference, 55" is normal for a year. We are already at 69".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 03, 2024, 12:15:34 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 03, 2024, 07:31:57 AM

Trump, Vance's climate change skepticism spotlighted after Hurricane Helene (thehill.com) (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4912932-trump-vance-skepticism-climate-science-hurricane-helene/)

Another opinion, with no plan, no fix, no reality, just complaining.

I mean Trump and Vance are campaigning on the idea that they have no plan to fix it, so I'm not sure why this would be surprising.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2024, 12:24:21 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on October 03, 2024, 12:15:34 PM

I mean Trump and Vance are campaigning on the idea that they have no plan to fix it, so I'm not sure why this would be surprising.

Nobody has a plan to fix it because it cannot be fixed. No amount of money is going to reach the goals of the Paris nonsense. It's a fallacy, and a political talking point. Nothing more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2024, 03:17:11 PM

Just read that the Helene death toll is now up to 200, with more expected.

Pouring buckets here right now. Lots of thunder and lightning. We don't need the rain, that's for sure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2024, 03:17:51 PM

The opinion piece offered no plan, just criticism.  Not even a sketchy outline, for reasons noted.  But we have to DO something.  I guess.

Obviously Trump wouldn't spend any time on it, but what about Harris?  Does she have a sketchy minimalistic rough outline of a semi-plan?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2024, 03:52:02 PM

https://thehill.com/homenews/4913942-pilot-helene-north-carolina-rescue-missions-arrest-threat/

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 03, 2024, 03:52:24 PM

"Why don't we have a comprehensive plan to fix a problem that half the country doesn't believe is a problem" ad infinitum and beyond

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2024, 04:06:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 03, 2024, 03:52:02 PM

https://thehill.com/homenews/4913942-pilot-helene-north-carolina-rescue-missions-arrest-threat/

Totally uncalled for.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2024, 04:08:06 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on October 03, 2024, 03:52:24 PM

"Why don't we have a comprehensive plan to fix a problem that half the country doesn't believe is a problem" ad infinitum and beyond

We all know we have a problem.

Present a solution that is realistic.

(Hint: you can't. Nobody can.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 03, 2024, 04:50:53 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2024, 04:08:06 PM

We all know we have a problem.

Present a solution that is realistic.

(Hint: you can't. Nobody can.)

For one, Trump has called it a scam, so I wouldn't agree that we all know we have a problem. That's what makes it "unrealistic" to mitigate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2024, 04:58:25 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on October 03, 2024, 04:50:53 PM

For one, Trump has called it a scam, so I wouldn't agree that we all know we have a problem. That's what makes it "unrealistic" to mitigate.

He knows it's a problem.

He called all the proposals to "fix" it a scam, and they are, because it can't be fixed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2024, 07:39:30 PM

there's a small percentage of folks that don't believe CO2 is causing enough global warming to cause a problem

that's NO reason for the folks that seem positive about it to not device a plan to save the planet, if a plan could be devised.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 07:44:19 AM

Whether however many folks don't believe it's a problem is unrelated to whether those who think it is has any sort of a smidgen of an outline of a rough draft of some plan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 07:44:54 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/SgCDcbY.jpeg)

That brown is the high water line near the Biltmore Estate (this is the main entrance).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 04, 2024, 07:47:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 07:44:19 AM

Whether however many folks don't believe it's a problem is unrelated to whether those who think it is has any sort of a smidgen of an outline of a rough draft of some plan.

It's quite related, actually

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 07:54:14 AM

If someone could forward said rough draft proposal, maybe more folks would buy in.  One at least needs a plan to garner support in my view, otherwise it's just whining.

But I gather you think since some folks don't believe in CC, there is no need to try anything at all. It's hopeless, no need for a plan because some don't think it's real.  OK then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 04, 2024, 07:59:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 07:54:14 AM

If someone could forward said rough draft proposal, maybe more folks would buy in.  One at least needs a plan to garner support in my view, otherwise it's just whining.

But I gather you think since some folks don't believe in CC, there is no need to try anything at all. It's hopeless, no need for a plan because some don't think it's real.  OK then.

I find it unlikely that people would support a plan to solve a problem that they don't believe exists. I suppose you think that is somehow irrelevant in a democracy where everyone can vote. Okay then. Who cares about the details of how policy gets implemented.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 08:12:49 AM

Then we might as well stop discussing it since there is no plan, there is no wide consensus, and there is no hope that a leader could lead us to one.

I strongly feel a realistic plan would be advantageous, then "we" could evaluate the cost and pain versus the benefit and gain.  Now, we can't, it's just "throw money at it".  That money then is wasted.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 04, 2024, 08:19:30 AM

I don't get too worked up about things that are unlikely to change anytime soon

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 08:24:25 AM

I get slightly worked up over spending billions on a "problem" that can't be solved even with trillions.

I suppose it's jobs for someone out there, and probably money for millionaire investors and political supporters.

I also worry that some of the steps being taken will destabilize our electrical grid, which could be bad.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 04, 2024, 08:31:14 AM

I go outside and take a walk when the world seems so scary. Maybe get a nice sandwich. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 04, 2024, 08:36:01 AM

if there's no sense in coming up with a plan... to solve a problem

then there's even less sense in whining about a problem or wring hangs and gnashing teeth and throwing money at the problem or politicizing a problem or even pointing out there is a problem

many folks have spent a helluva lot of time and other resources figuring out that a problem exists

why not follow up with a plan?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 08:49:58 AM

My "plan" would first be to get realistic with the voters.  Politicians on the Left have been claiming if we spend all these billions the problem will get solved, otherwise we'll all drown.  Politicians on the Right have often claimed it's a nonissue, we should ignore it.

Neither, in my view, is accurate nor realistic.

This is why I'd never get any votes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 04, 2024, 08:54:09 AM

well, that could be a plan with EVERY political issue

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 08:55:33 AM

I THINK some of my proposals would help solve, or at least reduce, some of our major problems, but for this one, well, the horses left the barn decades ago.

Politicians don't get elected by being realistic about things when realism is negative.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 04, 2024, 11:43:37 AM

It's actually very easy to come up with a plan.  We know exactly what activities and industries contribute the most in generating pollution and greenhouse emissions.  We know the amounts per year that are produced by each of these industries.  We have models-- perhaps not great ones but they're all we have for now-- that tell us estimated impact on the climate from all of the above, so that we can calculate what reductions are necessary and in what time frame.

We have all of those things, which is more than enough to come up with a fact-based plan, today.  It would still depend on the accuracy of the models, but over time I believe the models will improve, so the outputs will improve, and we could course correct as better models and better data become available.

The problem is, when you actually DO the above-- when you calculate the actual costs of implementing the changes, and understand the actors that would need to engage heavily that have absolutely no desire to engage-- that's when you realize just how unrealistic it all is.  We can make all the laws we want in the US but we can't force other nations to follow suit and, if they don't, then the actions we take won't make enough of a difference, but will absolutely cripple us economically vis a vis our global counterparts and competitors who'd be happy to watch us suffer.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2024, 11:46:15 AM

That last part is why coming up with a plan is so difficult, if not impossible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 11:51:11 AM

That's why I usually refer to a practicable plan, not one that would cost $50 trillion by 2050.

My own "plan" as noted would be to get realistic and let folks know what the models are predicting in terms of storm intensity and sea level rise (which isn't much by 2050) so folks could make some individual decisions about compensation.  Coastal cities might invest in flood remediation tactics, as well as perhaps leveling some areas to provide a buffer, over time.

Then I'd convert every coal power plant to nuclear.  The steam turbines should be (?) adaptable.  If W&S now are cheaper, great, have at it, no need to subsidize.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 04, 2024, 11:55:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2024, 11:46:15 AM

That last part is why coming up with a plan is so difficult, if not impossible.

Yeah it's extremely easy to write a plan that will achieve the necessary cuts.

It's absolutely impossible to get all of the varying groups of companies, citizens, governments, agencies, to all enact the plan cohesively.

Even people who passionately and fervently believe climate change is an imminent existential threat, aren't willing to change their habits.  I have a friend who posts environmental shit on Facebook all the time.  She's a total granola, she's vegan, and all that jazz.  But she flies from San Francisco to the east coast multiple times per year to visit family or her daughter who's in college over there somewhere, and she flies to Europe at least once per year.  When another crusty friend of hers called her out for it, the carnage and social media fallout were remarkable.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2024, 12:04:15 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 04, 2024, 11:55:19 AM

Even people who passionately and fervently believe climate change is an imminent existential threat, aren't willing to change their habits.

No problem with 1500 private jets arriving in Davos.

Nothing to see here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 12:04:47 PM

Even if the US tanked our economy and shut down every coal and gas power plant and mandated every vehicle be electric, somehow, it still would be a minor contributor to CO2 levels (and increases) in the world.  Instead of an increase of about 2.5°C by 2050, it would be 2.3-2.4°C, at best.  Probably not measurable.

The $370 billion allocated in the recent bill by Congress over ten years is ... nothing.  I guess it makes some feel good, and makes others a lot wealthier.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 04, 2024, 12:39:07 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 08:49:58 AM

My "plan" would first be to get realistic with the voters. Politicians on the Left have been claiming if we spend all these billions the problem will get solved, otherwise we'll all drown.  Politicians on the Right have often claimed it's a nonissue, we should ignore it.

Take some advice from Stonewall Jackson - "kill 'em, Kill 'em all"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 12:44:48 PM

As is often the case, the "problem" gets wildly exaggerated in movies and by "Al Gore" types, who repeatedly get it wrong and over hyped.  This engenders a sense of mistrust among some that the entire story is wrong and over hyped for ulterior reasons.  Being realistic and scientificially guided and sound would be a blessing, in my view.

But that doesn't generate breathless headlines about catastrophes happening NOW and SOON.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2024, 12:57:32 PM

A tropical rainstorm coming to Florida could dump a foot of rain (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-tropical-rainstorm-coming-to-florida-could-dump-a-foot-of-rain/ar-AA1rHMT0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=d24e02fc3f8a468e955bfbf79c2ba8ad&ei=15)

We don't need any more rain, but it's coming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 04, 2024, 01:07:25 PM

Send it on this way. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MaximumSam on October 04, 2024, 01:08:36 PM

Parts of Ohio still under a burn ban, could use some tropical rain too

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 01:10:49 PM

We had been a bit dry, fortunately.  I walked around the park today and didn't notice anything bad, the fields are quite soggy.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 01:14:10 PM

The "real" threat in climate change, to me, is if the models are off the wrong way and/or we get into a spiraling situation.  Folks claim this isn't very likely, but folks can be wrong.  The permafrost significantly melts and releases a lot of methane, the major ice shelves in Antarctica give way, large glaciers are released into the ocean, Greenland melts, CO2 levels continue to rise, but they end up being relatively "minor" contributors to the overall mess, and maybe the Sun goes wonky the bad way too.

I THINK most of humanity can manage with the projected T increases with some obvious exceptions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 04, 2024, 01:30:24 PM

Gather up the carcasses of a bunch of carbon-based life forms, and send them directly to Venus. :098:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2024, 01:53:58 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/11RXsMP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 04, 2024, 06:12:40 PM

Elon Musk on absurd regulations
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5dKJ6F_ckSA?feature=share

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on October 04, 2024, 06:27:47 PM

I mean

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1842039774359462324?t=SU32bGXaAjE0OVx5JFRC_w&s=19

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 04, 2024, 09:05:55 PM

maybe I'll just retire and stay put

(https://i.imgur.com/cLjjclK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2024, 09:33:21 PM

MTG is off the deep end of nuttiest of nut cases, in my view.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 08:52:37 AM

So, this all sucks.

AccuWeather Warns Florida Is Facing 12″ Or More Of Flooding Rains, Tropical Threat (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/accuweather-warns-florida-is-facing-12-or-more-of-flooding-rains-tropical-threat/ar-AA1rICp9?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=2a1982eacc1a40d5a234ed7ecc351b21&ei=13)


(https://i.imgur.com/VREZqJY.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 08:56:42 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/n9Dla9s.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2024, 09:03:14 AM

a few of my golfing buddies from around here bought retirement places in Florida

almost all of them have experienced storm damage and sold out

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:05:54 AM

We're not leaving. The house is a fortress that only a wicked tornado could take down. Elevation is good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2024, 09:17:27 AM

I'm pondering this note that hurricanes may be increasing in strength and water content more rapidly than previously, and that may be accurate.  The "ACE" measure of hurricanes is not showing much of a trend overall.  If the waters in the Gulf are warmer than "normal", this could be a problem even if hurricane frequency doesn't increase (much).  I saw some data that they are moving more slowly than before, but the recent one was a fast mover.

I still think this stuff is too complex for our "models".  But there could well be new problems.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2024, 09:21:59 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/S9G2BlT.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:26:58 AM

Experts (hmmm) were calling for 25-27 named storms this season. UPenn predicted 33.

We're at 11, and past the peak. I'm thinking we'll see 5-6 more before we're done, but nothing "major" for the US.

I'm not an expert.

Let's see how this ages.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:30:04 AM

Has Europe ever been hit by a storm? It has to be very rare if so.

(https://i.imgur.com/XKvcY6v.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2024, 09:30:17 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:26:58 AM

Experts (hmmm) were calling for 25-27 named storms this season. UPenn predicted 33.

We're at 11, and past the peak. I'm thinking we'll see 5-6 more before we're done, but nothing "major" for the US.

I'm not an expert.

Let's see how this ages.

I recall after the year of Katrina they all panicked and readjusted their models to pretty much double the number going forward each year, and then that didn't happen.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2024, 09:31:50 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:30:04 AM

Has Europe ever been hit by a storm? It has to be very rare if so.

I'm not moving to Europe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 05, 2024, 09:36:35 AM

95° in Lincoln??? Da Fuq

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 05, 2024, 09:37:32 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:30:04 AM

Has Europe ever been hit by a storm? It has to be very rare if so.

Don't see why they should get off the hook

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2024, 09:38:54 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 05, 2024, 09:31:50 AM

I'm not moving to Europe

I might someday.  Somewhere along the Italian Riviera, or maybe the south of France.

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 05, 2024, 09:36:35 AM

95° in Lincoln??? Da Fuq

Yeah that's what I was thinking.  Same high temp in Austin today.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:43:42 AM

Italy would be a nice place to move to.

But taxes. Ouch.

Taxes in Italy for expats and non-residents: 2023 and 2024 | Experts for Expats (https://www.expertsforexpats.com/country/italy/finance/taxes-in-italy-for-expats-2023-and-2024/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2024, 09:47:06 AM

It is very rare for a hurricane/TS to hit Europe, they don't generally go NW.  I don't know why this one is predicted to do so.  They have storms of course, some of which are pretty serious, but they come from their NE.  We hit two on our cruise around England last year, one was stated to have 85+ knot winds.  That 100,000 ton cruise liner was bounding around a lot.  The wood trim in our cabin was really making noise.  We had two stops deleted because we couldn't get to land safely.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2024, 09:47:50 AM

If you chatted with my wife about living in France, you wouldn't want to move there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 11:34:33 AM

Nothing but fun.

(https://i.imgur.com/tErS0i7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2024, 12:23:00 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2024, 09:47:50 AM

If you chatted with my wife about living in France, you wouldn't want to move there.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 09:43:42 AM

Italy would be a nice place to move to.

But taxes. Ouch.

Taxes in Italy for expats and non-residents: 2023 and 2024 | Experts for Expats (https://www.expertsforexpats.com/country/italy/finance/taxes-in-italy-for-expats-2023-and-2024/)

Yeah I'd only be there as a retiree with minimal actual income.  But I get it, as much as I love the area I think I'd miss all of the American things too much.  Living in a foreign country is very different than visiting on vacation.  I've lived/worked in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands for many months at a time, and with open-ended/unknown return dates.  It's not at all like visiting for a few weeks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 05, 2024, 12:39:13 PM

(https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/palm-trees-strong-hurricane-force-winds-tropical-gulf-mexico-palm-trees-hurricane-leaning-259453979.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2024, 01:36:51 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/xug25fp.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2024, 02:28:29 PM

https://apple.news/AdKxucbbbQqKJhHr1X4R43A

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 02:46:42 PM

I HATE being on the dirty side.

(https://i.imgur.com/T4z3cmO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 02:48:50 PM

https://twitter.com/MattDevittWX/status/1842581209337180253?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1842581209337180253%7Ctwgr%5Ee88a5a846fa9ea32e20c681d881245110206996b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwinknews.com%2F2024%2F10%2F05%2Fpotential-tropical-development-expected-in-the-gulf%2F (https://twitter.com/MattDevittWX/status/1842581209337180253?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1842581209337180253|twgr^e88a5a846fa9ea32e20c681d881245110206996b|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwinknews.com%2F2024%2F10%2F05%2Fpotential-tropical-development-expected-in-the-gulf%2F)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2024, 02:51:37 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2024, 02:48:50 PM

https://twitter.com/MattDevittWX/status/1842581209337180253?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1842581209337180253%7Ctwgr%5Ee88a5a846fa9ea32e20c681d881245110206996b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwinknews.com%2F2024%2F10%2F05%2Fpotential-tropical-development-expected-in-the-gulf%2F (https://twitter.com/MattDevittWX/status/1842581209337180253?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1842581209337180253|twgr^e88a5a846fa9ea32e20c681d881245110206996b|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwinknews.com%2F2024%2F10%2F05%2Fpotential-tropical-development-expected-in-the-gulf%2F)

Damn.   This gets old fast.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 05, 2024, 11:20:05 PM

Can it blow around the frozen iguanas? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 06, 2024, 03:49:42 AM

Ugh, y'all get prepped and stay safe.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2024, 08:47:35 AM

October is the best weather month here

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2024, 09:12:56 AM

Gonna have a lot of rain today and tomorrow, which is just what we need before Milton shows up Tuesday night. Mother Nature has not been kind to us this year.

(https://i.imgur.com/tDmWcdw.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2024, 09:38:56 AM

70 degrees, sunny, and breezy on the golf course this afternoon

we need rain

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2024, 12:28:05 PM

They keep pushing it South.

Please push it to Cuba.

(https://i.imgur.com/XSacUug.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 06, 2024, 12:31:39 PM

Still not as windy as the Windy City. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2024, 12:33:17 PM

The wind is not why Chicago is called the windy city.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2024, 12:58:23 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 06, 2024, 03:49:42 AM

Ugh, y'all get prepped and stay safe.

This^^^^^^^^^best wishes,hopes,prayers sent

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2024, 09:25:24 AM

NHC moved the forecast line back to the North, to strike Sarasota. 5-10' of surge predicted here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 07, 2024, 11:17:51 AM

Milton’s mind-boggling rapid intensification is nearly without precedent
From CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert
Milton is already the third-fastest rapidly intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic, according to more than 40 years of data from the National Hurricane Center.
Milton’s wind speeds have increased by 90 mph in less than 24 hours, according to data from the National Hurricane Center.
The storm has nearly tripled the rapid intensification criteria of a 35 mph increase in wind speeds in 24 hours or less. Milton has rapidly intensified faster than any other storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but this level of explosive strengthening is not without precedent in the Atlantic. Only two hurricanes strengthened more than Milton in a 24-hour period: 2005’s Wilma and 2007’s Felix.
Hurricane Wilma holds the rapid intensification record for the Atlantic dating to 1982, NOAA’s John Kaplan told CNN last year. Wilma’s sustained winds increased by a staggering 110 mph in a 24-hour period while it moved over the western Caribbean Sea in October of 2005.
In 2007, Hurricane Felix rapidly intensified by 100 mph in 24 hours in the Caribbean.
Milton is the 13th named storm to form and the seventh to rapidly intensify in the Atlantic basin this season. Rapid intensification is becoming more likely as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution and bodies of water get warmer and retain heat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 07, 2024, 11:50:48 AM

more likely but, Wilma holds the record in 82

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on October 07, 2024, 12:15:58 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2024, 09:25:24 AM

NHC moved the forecast line back to the North, to strike Sarasota. 5-10' of surge predicted here.

Stay safe Badge.. This one sounds nasty and sounds like it's hitting my favorite area in the country. Don't take any chances here. One of my guys is in Western NC and his experience the last two weeks has been terrible. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2024, 12:30:05 PM

Quote from: SuperMario on October 07, 2024, 12:15:58 PM

Stay safe Badge.. This one sounds nasty and sounds like it's hitting my favorite area in the country. Don't take any chances here. One of my guys is in Western NC and his experience the last two weeks has been terrible.

The line keeps moving North. 5-10 feet of surge still predicted, but we are at 14 feet, two miles from the water. We're gonna ride it out.

Red dot is me. This is now a CAT 5, by the way, but predicted to weaken to a 3 by the time it hits.


(https://i.imgur.com/eGInVru.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2024, 02:13:29 PM

Moving further South now. I'm the red dot.

(https://i.imgur.com/ndxN4Br.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2024, 05:13:02 PM

Storm surge for Tampa-St. Pete could be just devastating.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 07, 2024, 05:17:14 PM

I hope the Braves' spring training facility gets through this "OK".  I think it attracts hurricanes like trailer parks attract tornadoes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 07, 2024, 05:24:13 PM

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAwnNu4P89I/?igsh=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==


New forecast.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 07, 2024, 05:26:19 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2024, 05:13:02 PM

Storm surge for Tampa-St. Pete could be just devastating.

We’re sandbagging branches and boarding them up.  Evacuating employees 🤮

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2024, 06:32:48 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 07, 2024, 05:26:19 PM

We’re sandbagging branches and boarding them up.  Evacuating employees 🤮

I hope people listen when they're told to evacuate for this one.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 07, 2024, 06:51:18 PM

florida man
listen

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 08, 2024, 07:11:52 AM

I find it interesting how it is projected to "weaken" and get larger as it nears Florida.  A guy in TV explained thiis, drier air and wind shear.  I hope it weakens as fast as it strengthened.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 08:32:05 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 07, 2024, 06:51:18 PM

florida man
listen

We are in an evacuation zone. I believe the mapping is wrong, based on other maps I've reviewed, and topographic information.

So, we are staying.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2024, 08:40:21 AM

I pray you're right.
I understand it's inconvenient, but better safe than sorry

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 08:40:57 AM

We have places to go if needed. I just don't think it's needed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 08, 2024, 08:46:40 AM

(https://static.scientificamerican.com/dam/m/62421927b2cfb629/original/hurricane_milton_over_gulf_of_mexico_october_7_2024.jpg?w=1350)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 08:50:00 AM

Not good at all.

ShorePoint Health Port Charlotte evacuations ahead of Milton (winknews.com) (https://winknews.com/2024/10/08/shorepoint-health-evacuations-ahead-milton/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 09:00:53 AM

FEMA Arrests Noah For Running Unauthorized Flood Rescue Operation | Babylon Bee (https://babylonbee.com/news/fema-arrests-noah-for-running-unauthorized-flood-rescue-operation?utm_source=The Babylon Bee)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 08, 2024, 10:01:24 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 08:40:57 AM

We have places to go if needed. I just don't think it's needed.

You know how to contact me if you need a place on the east coast right?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 10:48:47 AM

Yes, thank you very much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 10:49:50 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/QvlTHqb.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 08, 2024, 12:26:23 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/hAxIrMO.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 01:51:44 PM

If Punta Gorda gets 10' of surge, it will be in ruins.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 08, 2024, 02:50:38 PM

Is there much tidal shift in that area?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2024, 03:10:31 PM

2-2.5' lately. King Tides.

(https://i.imgur.com/BWlbCjI.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 08, 2024, 03:53:29 PM

Sit tight 847, you got this.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 08, 2024, 09:24:01 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/generac-ceo-says-pressure-on-the-power-grid-only-going-to-get-worse.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2024, 09:26:44 PM

that's what I would hope for and what I would say regardless if I was sellin generators

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2024, 10:01:41 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/r3bLtRA.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 09, 2024, 07:44:59 AM

How climate change makes hurricanes worse : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2024/10/08/nx-s1-5143320/hurricanes-climate-change)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 08:50:43 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 08, 2024, 03:53:29 PM

Sit tight 847, you got this. 

We're out of here. 8-12' is a little too close to 14' for me.

My buddy is out of town and we're headed to his house, which is at 22'.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 09, 2024, 08:55:24 AM

I think that's a smart call.  Hopefully it's all fine at your house, and better safe than sorry.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 09, 2024, 08:55:51 AM

I think that is a wise move, maybe put delicate items up on a counter.

The house should stand it, but it could get wet.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 09, 2024, 09:07:43 AM

My Brothers/ sis in law from Cape Coral got here to my house yesterday.  

They say you can hide from wind, but you need to run from water. 

Random- my bros like vodka😳

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 09, 2024, 09:24:07 AM

Next few days at HB's house gonna be like:

(https://d3vsguwj4bxh9r.cloudfront.net/uploads/auction/item/image/309705/tito_case.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 09, 2024, 09:26:07 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 09, 2024, 09:24:07 AM

Next few days at HB's house gonna be like:

(https://d3vsguwj4bxh9r.cloudfront.net/uploads/auction/item/image/309705/tito_case.jpg)

LMAO.  You literally snuck into my house and took a photo!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on October 09, 2024, 09:40:53 AM

A couple that I know from here now live in Englewood. They're in Zone C and intend to try their luck in their house. Their fear is getting stuck on 75 with no fuel. I told them to find a public shelter nearby.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2024, 09:42:52 AM

I'd go to the bar on high ground

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 09:46:39 AM

Quote from: GopherRock on October 09, 2024, 09:40:53 AM

A couple that I know from here now live in Englewood. They're in Zone C and intend to try their luck in their house. Their fear is getting stuck on 75 with no fuel. I told them to find a public shelter nearby.

Charlotte County has told all Zone C (and A/B) people to go. Lee is A and B, and we're in B, but higher than most in B. We are almost C.

This tracker line keeps moving. Latest has tracking more North.

We are packed and ready to go.

We have until 5PM to make the decision. My wife wants to stay. I think we will go.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 09, 2024, 09:50:43 AM

No right or wrong without knowing what could happen.  We didn't think Beryl was supposed to be much, and it blew away more shit that I can count.  Trees, buildings, homes, businesses, just blown away.  If you're not sure, head for the "hills" or whatever high-ground you can find.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on October 09, 2024, 09:55:06 AM

Badge, just please be safe.. My vote is be overly cautious.. It leaves for less serious consequences for regret.. Leaving, you may regret time wasted and that can be dealt with.. If you need to get out of the south and ever wanted to visit Ohio, our house would be open as long as you can deal with kids running around everywhere.. Please stay safe and protect yourselves. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on October 09, 2024, 09:56:10 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 08:50:43 AM

We're out of here. 8-12' is a little too close to 14' for me.

My buddy is out of town and we're headed to his house, which is at 22'.

My dad who was raised in Galveston aiways said he had only run from one storm which was Carla and it pushed 17 foot tides

Our house had water doorknob high 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2024, 10:04:06 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 09:46:39 AM

Charlotte County has told all Zone C (and A/B) people to go. Lee is A and B, and we're in B, but higher than most in B. We are almost C.

This tracker line keeps moving. Latest has tracking more North.

We are packed and ready to go.

We have until 5PM to make the decision. My wife wants to stay. I think we will go.

I'd be gone at 4:30

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on October 09, 2024, 10:13:11 AM

Sarasota County, where my acquaintances are, is also telling C to go. 

I'm looking at the peninsula that Englewood is on, and the whole thing is an evacuation zone.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 09, 2024, 10:16:43 AM

Just go.  Beat the traffic if you can.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 02:27:28 PM

We're still here.

The neighborhood we were looking at going to took a tornado. The house is OK, but they have a lot of downed trees and no power.

4 tornadoes hit in that general area.

So, we decided to ride it out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2024, 02:48:39 PM

good luck!!!

O:-)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on October 09, 2024, 03:01:52 PM

I'm watching some of the videos of today's Florida tornadoes. If I didn't know they were in Florida, I'd swear those were wedge tornadoes from the Midwest.

Good luck, Badge.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 03:59:08 PM

I didn't know either until we started going through hurricanes. They spawn off the outer bands.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 04:02:39 PM

We are the green dot. No inundation forecast. Keep in mind as well that they draw these maps very conservative, for good reason.

(https://i.imgur.com/XKPG6hy.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 04:26:04 PM

What the 'Waffle House Index' is telling us about Hurricane Milton | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/what-the-waffle-house-index-is-telling-us-about-hurricane-milton/vi-AA1rYtgA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=851fb231ed0642b1a2f50df0fd37f1e5&ei=14)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 09, 2024, 04:51:11 PM

Stay safe 847

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2024, 04:55:44 PM

I like them thar pecans on my waffles

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 09, 2024, 09:09:49 PM

Make sure you have your AR-15 handy to fend off the looters. :violent-smiley-007:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 09:40:45 PM

Power and internet are down.

Running on Geni and Verizon MiFi.

Dammit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2024, 10:26:05 PM

damn, hang in there!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 09, 2024, 11:31:13 PM

(https://imgcdn.stablediffusionweb.com/2024/5/25/71bdd6ef-356c-41da-86df-3a7a5fdfd702.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2024, 07:50:27 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2024, 09:40:45 PM

Power and internet are down.

Running on Geni and Verizon MiFi.

Dammit.

Tornado came through my sub.  Around 5:45 last evening.  Tore this area up.    No power and debris everywhere.   Sucks.  But safe.  

Hurricane winds all through the night and even now.   🤮

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2024, 08:03:41 AM

hang on fellas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 08:11:05 AM

The tornadoes might be he worst of it, at least where they hit, but even overall, maybe.  Hopefully the basic infrastructure stands up to the hurricane itself for the most part.  It won't be like the mountains experienced, hopefully.  

I'm talking "really bad" versus "catastrophic".  If hurricanes really are going to strengthen that fast in the Gulf more often it's not good duh.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2024, 08:34:19 AM

it's an added cost, but there are places more power lines should be underground

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 08:43:28 AM

I'm told around here, the cost is over a million per block.  I dunno if that's accurate, and it would be less in ruraler areas.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2024, 09:06:51 AM

CapX vs OpX

it's also expensive to hang them back up after they've been knocked down

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 09:12:31 AM

I was told that Ga Power hates underground lines because of accessibility.  That seems a bit weird to me.  The new buildings going up here have the lines buried, which I like, a lot, and then they plant trees, which I like a lot.  The older areas still have poles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2024, 09:17:08 AM

really not much need to access them

the splice points, yes.
you put a loop of slack in the vault and pull it up to access it.

Just like fiber optic cable for your communications

the underground cable is also heavier gauge and needs a metal sheath and tougher jacket, so it's more expensive.

but, you sleep better when a storm is looming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 09:22:02 AM

We get water main breaks every so often, the system is 80+ years old.  I'd guess that would impact buried lines too.

The place looks a LOT cleaner with buried lines.  You also don't need to trim trees near the lines.  We have a string of higher tension lines running across the street, I don't have much hope they get buried any time soon, they aren't the normal lines.  There are two substations not far from us in different directions and a rather tall high tension set running between them down 14th street.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 10:36:38 AM

We made it. Generator is running. No internet and the Verizon MiFi is slowwww.

The marina got hit hard. Some areas down there took surge. We didn't get any of that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2024, 10:45:40 AM

great news

good to hear

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 11:22:40 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 08:11:05 AM

The tornadoes might be he worst of it, at least where they hit, but even overall, maybe.  Hopefully the basic infrastructure stands up to the hurricane itself for the most part.  It won't be like the mountains experienced, hopefully. 

I'm talking "really bad" versus "catastrophic".  If hurricanes really are going to strengthen that fast in the Gulf more often it's not good duh.

Water poses the largest damage and threat to life. The wind and torndoes are far less damaging.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 11:49:53 AM

Took a ride around town.

No sign of FEMA anywhere. I talked to a lot of people. Nobody has seen anything FEMA.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 10, 2024, 11:51:33 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 11:49:53 AM

Took a ride around town.

No sign of FEMA anywhere. I talked to a lot of people. Nobody has seen anything FEMA.

Haven't you heard? Seems they ran out of money, fighting COVID.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 11:54:02 AM

I'd guess FEMA would still be "assessing" and coordinating from some central locations at this point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2024, 11:55:34 AM

give'em a week or 3

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 11:58:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 11:54:02 AM

I'd guess FEMA would still be "assessing" and coordinating from some central locations at this point.

Bad guess.

They should have been mobilized and ready, from Marco to Clearwater, and from West Palm to Jacksonville.

We've known this was gonna happen for two f'ing weeks.

That agency, like most others, is a joke right now.

Florida is on its own with this one, no matter what kind of blabber you hear out of the White House.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:04:03 PM

I don't understand what FEMA DOES do, and what they should do, at this point.  I presume they don't show up with chainsaws or reconnect power lines or clear flooding, ever.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 12:20:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:04:03 PM

I don't understand what FEMA DOES do, and what they should do, at this point.  I presume they don't show up with chainsaws or reconnect power lines or clear flooding, ever.

I do. They push paper and sub everything out.

12,000 people pushing paper, coordinating Covid shit and migrant aid.

That's a lot of people, doing not much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:22:52 PM

What SHOULD they be doing?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:25:09 PM

FEMA has faced criticism and praise during Hurricane Helene. Here's what it does - and doesn't do - ABC11 Raleigh-Durham (https://abc11.com/post/fema-has-faced-criticism-praise-during-hurricane-helene-heres-what-does-doesnt-do/15400270/)

FEMA works to supply aid to people in affected areas before, during and after disasters by providing money, technical assistance and guidance, according to the agency.
Former President Jimmy Carter signed an executive order to establish FEMA in 1979, and the agency is headquartered in Washington, D.C.
FEMA works with affected states to coordinate resources and deliver public assistance to cover costs for debris removal, life-saving emergency protective procedures and restoring public infrastructure.

FEMA also offers federal grants to victims to help them with temporary housing, emergency home repairs, loss of personal property, and funeral and medical expenses, among other things.
However, the federal agency is not solely in charge of the disaster relief and recovery process, according to Joshua Dozor, who worked for FEMA for over a decade and most recently served as the deputy assistant administrator for response operations.
"FEMA is a small agency -- they're not an army with trucks," Dozor told ABC News.
Describing the branch as more of an "enabler" for disaster relief, Dozor said, "FEMA coordinates resources across departments and agencies, non-government organizations, contractors, to help the state take the lead role in delivering the response."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SuperMario on October 10, 2024, 12:31:03 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 11:58:32 AM

Bad guess.

They should have been mobilized and ready, from Marco to Clearwater, and from West Palm to Jacksonville.

We've known this was gonna happen for two f'ing weeks.

That agency, like most others, is a joke right now.

Florida is on its own with this one, no matter what kind of blabber you hear out of the White House.

I must have a misunderstanding of it.. from my understanding they were training new employees in Ukraine and Israel so we're sending some money over there for proper training. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 12:39:26 PM

Over Governor, over the past two weeks, has coordinated with Electric companies across the country, from as far away as California.

We still have a lot of our own linemen in North Carolina, etc. helping Helene victims.

During Ian he had our own, plus many from other states. 40,000 total linemen.

He has gathered 50,000 this time around.

FEMA coordinated nothing on this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:41:42 PM

It sounds to me like FEMA is basically white collar "coordinators",  If so, I wouldn't expect to ever see one that was identifiable after a disaster.  Whether they do anything useful at some point or not I don't know.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 12:43:53 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:41:42 PM

It sounds to me like FEMA is basically white collar "coordinators",  If so, I wouldn't expect to ever see one that was identifiable after a disaster.  Whether they do anything useful at some point or not I don't know.

I saw FEMA trucks and personnel here before and after Ian.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:47:48 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/bq7a12K.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:59:51 PM

I'm not sure what I'd expect FEMA to be doing in any disaster.  The immediate needs require "workers".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 02:03:47 PM

Workers require money.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 10, 2024, 02:12:03 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 12:39:26 PM

Over Governor, over the past two weeks, has coordinated with Electric companies across the country, from as far away as California.

We still have a lot of our own linemen in North Carolina, etc. helping Helene victims.

During Ian he had our own, plus many from other states. 40,000 total linemen.

He has gathered 50,000 this time around.FEMA coordinated nothing on this.

A friend of mine was on the storm crews up in the Ashvile and other areas of NC where water crested above river banks by 30-40 ft. He told me on saturday he had worked 13 straight days and was thinking of hitting fla to close the home the family has in Sarasota. Haven't bothered him since as he stays dialed in and involved might call tonite.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 02:25:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:47:48 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/bq7a12K.png)

That's last week.

This week:


(https://i.imgur.com/zx7jB74.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2024, 02:26:36 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 10, 2024, 02:12:03 PM

A friend of mine was on the storm crews up in the Ashvile and other areas of NC where water crested above river banks by 30-40 ft. He told me on saturday he had worked 13 straight days and was thinking of hitting fla to close the home the family has in Sarasota. Haven't bothered him since as he stays dialed in and involved might call tonite.

It may not be there. They got slammed more than we did.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 10, 2024, 06:54:40 PM

Does the Governor need to declare an emergency and request FEMA assistance? Has this occurred? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 11, 2024, 08:14:47 AM

electricityMap is a live visualization of where your electricity comes from and how much CO2 was emitted to produce it.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map (https://app.electricitymaps.com/map)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 11, 2024, 08:43:05 AM

That's cool!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 11, 2024, 08:55:09 AM

western Iowa and Texas doing OK

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2024, 09:00:05 AM

It is very cool.  I'd note Ga Power CLAIMS 12% solar and 1% wind and 5% hydro, plus 14% nuclear.

The solar is probably max capacity.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 11, 2024, 09:19:17 AM

What's going on with Pacificorp East? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2024, 09:23:12 AM

Coal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 11, 2024, 09:36:27 AM

Still no power here.  2 tornados ripped through just down the street so the power poles are demolished.   Nobody even working on them yet.  

Generator only good for the fridge, a couple lamps and a fan.  

Looking like no CFB tomorrow unless I can find a pet friendly hotel 😒

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 11, 2024, 09:49:03 AM

bummer

good luck

most microbreweries allow dogs

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 11, 2024, 09:55:27 AM

Good luck HB 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 11, 2024, 10:23:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 11, 2024, 09:49:03 AM

bummer

good luck

most microbreweries allow dogs

That will work for his three dogs, but what about the eight cats? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 11, 2024, 10:34:06 AM

Sorry to hear that HB-- have you ever looked into a whole-house genny?  Lots of people I know in Houston have gotten one over the past few years.  Not cheap, but it's better than melting your arse off.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2024, 10:41:12 AM

When we had a house, I was looking at one that would just power the fridge and maybe a few lights as well.  We didn't have outages very often, and they were brief.

We have a large diesel generator here, but it only works the elevators and hall lights and the front desk.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 11, 2024, 10:45:53 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 11, 2024, 09:49:03 AM

most microbreweries allow dogs

True - you got in

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 11, 2024, 10:46:44 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 11, 2024, 10:23:41 AM

That will work for his three dogs, but what about the eight cats?

The Haitans will  keep an eye on them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 11, 2024, 10:58:07 AM

gator bait

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 11, 2024, 11:06:37 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 11, 2024, 10:41:12 AM

When we had a house, I was looking at one that would just power the fridge and maybe a few lights as well.  We didn't have outages very often, and they were brief.

We have a large diesel generator here, but it only works the elevators and hall lights and the front desk.

Yeah my portable generator that I use for RV camping and tailgating can power the fridge, some lights, electronics, a couple of fans, or a space heater.  It would probably power a small portable A/C unit too.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 11, 2024, 11:23:09 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 11, 2024, 10:34:06 AM

Sorry to hear that HB-- have you ever looked into a whole-house genny?  Lots of people I know in Houston have gotten one over the past few years.  Not cheap, but it's better than melting your arse off.

Yes- A few people around here have them and they look very smart with that investment. I had considered it and now wish I had pulled the trigger.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2024, 12:15:40 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 10, 2024, 06:54:40 PM

Does the Governor need to declare an emergency and request FEMA assistance? Has this occurred?

Yes. Emergency declared 5 days before Helene hit. It has not expired.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on October 11, 2024, 12:18:11 PM

847 do you have power?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2024, 12:20:34 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 11, 2024, 12:18:11 PM

847 do you have power?

Yes, with my whole house generator.

Just inquired about increasing the size of the propane tank.

I'm using my work MiFi for internet, which is sporadic until the old farts go to bed at 8PM and get off their tablets.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2024, 01:19:15 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 11, 2024, 11:23:09 AM

Yes- A few people around here have them and they look very smart with that investment. I had considered it and now wish I had pulled the trigger.

Get a 500 gallon tank. Trust me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2024, 01:24:02 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 10, 2024, 12:47:48 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/bq7a12K.png)

Our local weather experts debunked this last night on the news. Some asshole put this out on social media to scare people, and it worked. What you see above is Milton.

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN (noaa.gov) (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al14/al142024.public.001.shtml)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2024, 01:25:57 PM

My bad, I should have checked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2024, 08:23:40 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2024, 01:19:15 PM

Get a 500 gallon tank. Trust me.

that should run for a month non-stop

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2024, 08:30:35 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 12, 2024, 08:23:40 AM

that should run for a month non-stop

About a week, if you run the AC and pool, use the W/D, DW, etc.

Also, something to keep in mind is that they only fill 80% to account for expansion. So, my 250 is really 200.

We were out for 3 days. We are down to 125 gallons. Did not run AC much and did not use appliances other than refrigerators.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2024, 08:50:21 AM

so, you used 75 gallons in 3-days
So, 750 gallons in 30-days?
does it really lug the engine under more load when drawing more power?

the generators I used were over sized by a LOT and would just idle after start-up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2024, 08:51:51 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 12, 2024, 08:50:21 AM

so, you used 75 gallons in 3-days
So, 750 gallons in 30-days?
does it really lug the engine under more load when drawing more power?

the generators I used were over sized by a LOT and would just idle after start-up

The AC puts a big strain on it. You can hear it, and that's why we didn't run it much. Next time I won't run it at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2024, 08:54:40 AM

Scenes from Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/scenes-from-florida-in-the-aftermath-of-hurricane-milton/ss-AA1s6OQA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=616441aacda64d19810811f75f79c412&ei=18)

I consider us lucky.

(That and smart for not buying too close to the water. That PO'd the wife, but she is now thankful.)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2024, 09:03:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2024, 08:51:51 AM

The AC puts a big strain on it. You can hear it, and that's why we didn't run it much. Next time I won't run it at all.

did you run it overnight or shut it down before going to bed?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2024, 09:04:05 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 12, 2024, 09:03:09 AM

did you run it overnight or shut it down before going to bed?

Only to take the humidity out of the house before bed. Maybe an hour or two.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2024, 12:59:17 PM

This post was well over two weeks ago... After Helene.

Hello Friends...

Hurricane Helene hit the west coast of Florida pretty hard and Punta Gorda was no exception. We hope that you and your family are safe and healthy.

Our restaurant, The Perfect Caper, is temporarily closed due to storm damage. We will reopen when we feel it is safe. We will keep you up-to-date right here on our website in the coming days.

We hope to reopen in approximately 2 weeks.

Thank you for your support,
Chef Jeanie & James Roland

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 13, 2024, 07:07:28 PM

How many total tornadoes were in Hurricane Milton? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 13, 2024, 11:18:40 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 12, 2024, 08:50:21 AM

so, you used 75 gallons in 3-days
So, 750 gallons in 30-days?
does it really lug the engine under more load when drawing more power?

the generators I used were over sized by a LOT and would just idle after start-up

Most generators can’t idle, even with no load. Due to them needing to generate 60 hz electricity they have to spin at 3600 RPM to get 60 cycles a second , unless they’re a 4 pole generator and they spin at 1800 rpm. What you hear is the engine loading up, not charging speeds. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 14, 2024, 07:24:29 AM

agreed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2024, 08:11:09 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 13, 2024, 07:07:28 PM

How many total tornadoes were in Hurricane Milton?

147.

28 touched down.

Both are record highs.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2024, 10:51:25 AM

This doesn't seem good: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe

Quote

Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing?

This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about (https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-ipcc-wraps-up-its-most-in-depth-assessment-of-climate-change/)  (https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-ipcc-wraps-up-its-most-in-depth-assessment-of-climate-change/)half of all human emissions (https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-ipcc-wraps-up-its-most-in-depth-assessment-of-climate-change/).

But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.
In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.12447) by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. The final result was that forest, plants and soil – as a net category – absorbed almost no carbon.

There are warning signs at sea, too. Greenland’s glaciers and Arctic ice sheets are melting faster than expected, which is disrupting the Gulf Stream ocean current and slows the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. For the algae-eating zooplankton, melting sea ice is exposing them to more sunlight – a shift scientists say (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01779-1) could keep them in the depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor.

“We’re seeing cracks in the resilience of the Earth’s systems. We’re seeing massive cracks on land – terrestrial ecosystems are losing their carbon store and carbon uptake capacity, but the oceans are also showing signs of instability,” Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told an event at New York Climate Week in September.
“Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end,” he said.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2024, 05:02:34 PM

Welp.

(https://i.imgur.com/1T0PqpK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 15, 2024, 07:34:16 AM

Welp, todays the last day for summer. 96 deg here, tomorrow will be in the 70’s. Very dry here right now as well. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2024, 08:43:47 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 15, 2024, 07:34:16 AM

Welp, todays the last day for summer. 96 deg here, tomorrow will be in the 70’s. Very dry here right now as well.

Yup, I think this one will finally break summer here as well.  We'll still hit the 80s, heck we'll hit the 80s into December.  But the 90s should be done for a while.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2024, 08:48:49 AM

Milton took the 90's out of here. Very nice weather now.

Until... it's not.

I just have this feeling we're gonna get whacked again.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 15, 2024, 08:48:56 AM

Thursday looks like our last day in the 80s. Friday through Sunday in the 60s, before climbing back up into the 70s next week. 

Time to transition from the lake to the trails. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: GopherRock on October 15, 2024, 10:13:19 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 15, 2024, 07:34:16 AM

Welp, todays the last day for summer. 96 deg here, tomorrow will be in the 70’s. Very dry here right now as well.

Not quite as hot here, but last night was the first frost across most of the upper Midwest, with a bunch of hard freezes in places.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2024, 10:17:53 AM

Gonna be a nice weekend in Austin for the Formula 1 Grand Prix, and the Texas-Georgia football game on Saturday.  
(https://i.imgur.com/dejGlP9.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2024, 04:22:48 PM

Good chance this one stays South.

(https://i.imgur.com/aTuBRVc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2024, 01:17:19 PM

Probably safe to say Florida is OK with this one.

(https://i.imgur.com/ehV644d.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 16, 2024, 10:34:17 PM

Take that Cuba. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2024, 09:14:06 AM

I'm wearing sweats. It's 65 degrees out right now. AC is off.

Weird.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 17, 2024, 10:56:16 AM

I did parent pit crew for a marching band competition, it got down into the low 60s and I was wearing shorts and a t-shirt.  Was in the 50s this morning.  Brrrr cold.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2024, 11:46:29 AM

I just looked and the Gulf temperature in Tampa has gone from Almost 90 to now 78 since Milton and this cold front hit.

Hoping that this means we are done with storms for the season.

(https://i.imgur.com/AUzbDfP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2024, 12:18:54 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/hkH2yOD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2024, 01:47:02 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/U9bRFTF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2024, 08:13:29 AM

Still think we are OK.

(https://i.imgur.com/K9ajtMc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2024, 10:32:35 AM

Maybe.

(https://i.imgur.com/eaKSbOb.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2024, 03:33:34 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/e5AVSyN.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 24, 2024, 09:00:57 AM

We've got a record in jeopardy for Atlanta on Friday. I'm forecasting a high of 83 with the record being 82. But, that's not the only thing.

We haven't seen rain at all in the month of October. If we keep that streak alive, it will be the first time in recorded Atlanta history that the city hasn't seen any rain in a calender month.

Hopefully, the Atlantic remains mostly free of disturbances, which can be disturbing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 24, 2024, 09:23:18 AM

I think we're now at 8 weeks at my house with no measurable rain.  I stopped counting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 24, 2024, 10:52:55 AM

We're in a drought here in SE Texas, but still about 6" above our normal for the year.  Good.  We were so wet from July-August that I don't mind a little dry weather now.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 24, 2024, 03:24:16 PM

This is Kristy, which was Nadine in the Carribean last week.

(https://i.imgur.com/1sutxan.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 25, 2024, 08:06:36 AM

How do you ever manage to use your boat with all these storms popping up all the time? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2024, 08:35:16 AM

Well, that one is in the Pacific.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2024, 08:44:23 AM

A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days.  Some gradual development 
is possible toward the end of the week and over the weekend when the 
system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the 
southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northeastward, please.




(https://i.imgur.com/u2GexfG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2024, 03:04:29 PM

Upgraded.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days.  Gradual development is 
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this 
week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward 
or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean 
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 08:34:38 AM

The chart shows just how little has been done to reduce any of these over time.  The largest reductions happened when we had a recession (duh).  I see no reason to think any government actions in the US can change this trajectory significantly, it just can't happen for obvious reasons.  Now the various data centers supposedly are going to require a lot more electricity.

(https://i.imgur.com/0L0aqPG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 09:25:51 AM

How anyone thinks these are rational targets eludes me.



(https://i.imgur.com/WhXdTdf.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on October 28, 2024, 10:17:58 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 09:25:51 AM

How anyone thinks these are rational targets eludes me.



(https://i.imgur.com/WhXdTdf.png)

I replaced two old incandescent flood lights with LED equivalents that use about 88% less juice.  Doing my part.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 10:33:10 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/0PMm2yY.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 10:47:31 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 08:34:38 AM

The chart shows just how little has been done to reduce any of these over time.  The largest reductions happened when we had a recession (duh).  I see no reason to think any government actions in the US can change this trajectory significantly, it just can't happen for obvious reasons.  Now the various data centers supposedly are going to require a lot more electricity.

(https://i.imgur.com/0L0aqPG.png)

The amount of solar farms being built around here is staggering, just in and around my county alone.  Hundreds of acres, covered up with solar panels.  Ironic that a lot of the energy will go to "data centers" and bitcoin mining...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 10:49:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 10:33:10 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/0PMm2yY.png)

This right here is why I can't take climate change action seriously.  We are/will sacrifice our own country so China and build up theirs.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 10:49:45 AM

When I see solar/wind farms being built, I wonder how much electricity they actually produce as compared to say a one megawatt nuclear power reactor. 

A solar PV facility must have an installed capacity of 3,300 MW and 5,400 MW to match a 1,000-MW nuclear facility's output, requiring between 45 and 75 square miles.[color=var(--IXoxUe)]Ju[/color]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 10:51:57 AM

Just off I-75in south Georgia is a "large" solar farm, it's about a mile long, quite a bit less deep.  Maybe they put it there for show.

A 49 square mile farm of course would be 7 miles long, and 7 mile deep.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:08:20 AM

The thing about solar farms is that you don't need one "7 miles wide by 7 miles deep".  You can have one here that is 1 mile wide by 1 mile deep, and then another nearby, and several more here and there.  And they can be built anywhere, and they do not consume fuel or present hazards after they are built.  And you can probably build one in well under 5 years, and probably 1-2 years.  Whereas any nuke plant would probably take decades to permit, build, and commission, and multiple billions of dollars.  And it probably needs to be located remotely.  

I remember when they built the last Nuke plant in the US near Bay City, I had friends whose parents worked there building it.  Literally all through elementary and intermediate school, they were building it.  From the 70's thru the 80's.  I think it was started up around '88.  And this plant is literally in the middle of nowhere.  You have to go 30 miles from nowhere just to get there.  I'd bet it takes up much more than 49 square miles.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2024, 11:14:44 AM

All true, however-- the sun only shines during the day.

And a lot less wind at night too, typically. 

Storage is key.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:15:10 AM

You'd need 49 farms 1 x 1 mile to be equial.  My point is it takes a lot of room for solar.  One might see what seems to be a massive solar farm that in fact is pretty insignificant.

The newest two power reactors that just opened recently are 34 miles south of Augusta and  18 miles from the small town of Waynesboro.  The land around the plant is farm land mostly, not unoccupied.  It did take forever and a lot of money to get the plants built.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:18:17 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2024, 11:14:44 AM

All true, however-- the sun only shines during the day.

And a lot less wind at night too, typically.

Storage is key.

Yes it does, but I think that we have plenty of capacity at night, and not enough during the day.  If you look at the ERCOT site, you can track the power consumption, it almost always peaks during the day, and drops significantly at night.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2024, 11:20:30 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:18:17 AM

Yes it does, but I think that we have plenty of capacity at night, and not enough during the day.  If you look at the ERCOT site, you can track the power consumption, it almost always peaks during the day, and drops significantly at night. 

Yes, and if you remove fossil fuel generation during the daytime, the wind and solar we have aren't anywhere near enough to cover the difference.  And the demand will only increase over the next several decades.

And Texas is among the best with respect to renewables, in other regions it's far far worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:22:04 AM

Usually night is when we have a surplus.  Hydro storage is one way to compensate for that.

We will need base load that is reliable and consistent unless storage really ups its game.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2024, 11:22:30 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:08:20 AM

The thing about solar farms is that you don't need one "7 miles wide by 7 miles deep".  You can have one here that is 1 mile wide by 1 mile deep, and then another nearby, and several more here and there.  And they can be built anywhere, and they do not consume fuel or present hazards after they are built.  And you can probably build one in well under 5 years, and probably 1-2 years.  Whereas any nuke plant would probably take decades to permit, build, and commission, and multiple billions of dollars.  And it probably needs to be located remotely. 

I remember when they built the last Nuke plant in the US near Bay City, I had friends whose parents worked there building it.  Literally all through elementary and intermediate school, they were building it.  From the 70's thru the 80's.  I think it was started up around '88.  And this plant is literally in the middle of nowhere.  You have to go 30 miles from nowhere just to get there.  I'd bet it takes up much more than 49 square miles. 

Not just anywhere, at least when I was working on them up until a few years ago.

The FAA needs to approve as they interfere with pilots being able to see because of reflection.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:25:08 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2024, 11:20:30 AM

Yes, and if you remove fossil fuel generation during the daytime, the wind and solar we have aren't anywhere near enough to cover the difference.  And the demand will only increase over the next several decades.

And Texas is among the best with respect to renewables, in other regions it's far far worse.

No doubt that FF still far outpace solar/wind, and we will definitely need those sources for the foreseeable future.  But if we're talking about reducing CO2 and GHG, we're (Texas) is moving in the right direction.  
Check out today's mix:

(https://i.imgur.com/97LBRzw.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:26:26 AM

BTW, STP is 16 square miles (the nuke plant near me).  Still a healthy size, but not as big as I thought.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2024, 11:29:18 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:26:26 AM

BTW, STP is 16 square miles (the nuke plant near me).  Still a healthy size, but not as big as I thought. 

Yeah we go camping at Matagorda quite a bit, and one of my routes tracks right by the plant.  It's a pretty impressive sight, you definitely have to drive AROUND it.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:32:57 AM

Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2024, 11:29:18 AM

Yeah we go camping at Matagorda quite a bit, and one of my routes tracks right by the plant.  It's a pretty impressive sight, you definitely have to drive AROUND it.

Yeah, the size of it feels a lot bigger.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:33:00 AM

The Diablo nuke plant in California is not only pretty near a lot of stuff, you can see it from I-5, it's apparently on a fault line, and next to the ocean.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:43:27 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:33:00 AM

The Diablo nuke plant in California is not only pretty near a lot of stuff, you can see it from I-5, it's apparently on a fault line, and next to the ocean.

Well, I'm pretty sure that after 3 mile island, they started putting them out in BFE.  But I do know that STP was the last nuke plant built for over 30 years.  I think they finally put one in around Georgia or somewhere in the SE (maybe South Carolina), and it was a total boondoogle.  Way, way overbudget, talks of converting it to NG, way over schedule.  It was quite the fuckery from what I remember.  Heck, they may still be building the damn thing.  

I wonder if it's in the middle of nowhere as well?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2024, 11:43:46 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:18:17 AM

Yes it does, but I think that we have plenty of capacity at night, and not enough during the day.  If you look at the ERCOT site, you can track the power consumption, it almost always peaks during the day, and drops significantly at night. 

This is true, but that's not always a great thing for the power grid. It's actually becoming an issue here in CA where the net load on the grid drops during those hours but then conventional energy production has to quickly ramp up in the afternoons as solar generation wanes. 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56880

As @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) says, for solar or wind to really make the splash that we need, energy storage is key. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:44:57 AM

I had to look it up.  $30 billion dollars....at that rate we'll never achieve net zero.  

(https://i.imgur.com/AWgEVgQ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:47:30 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2024, 11:43:46 AM

This is true, but that's not always a great thing for the power grid. It's actually becoming an issue here in CA where the net load on the grid drops during those hours but then conventional energy production has to quickly ramp up in the afternoons as solar generation wanes.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56880

As @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) says, for solar or wind to really make the splash that we need, energy storage is key.

There are quite a few energy storage projects going on around us as well, including one right by my house.  Telsa has a big one near Angleton.  

One of the reasons why NG is so much better is because they can ramp them up and down much quicker than other plants such as coal.  You have to have those baseline plants because wind and solar are variable.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2024, 11:47:57 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:33:00 AM

The Diablo nuke plant in California is not only pretty near a lot of stuff, you can see it from I-5, it's apparently on a fault line, and next to the ocean.

Yeah, and the San Onofre now-retired nuke plant is right between Camp Pendleton and I-5 and the ocean, just on the south end of Orange County. 

It's known to evoke memories...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxFFWajIII

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:50:44 AM

Yep, I just checked.  Vogtle is in the middle of nowhere as well.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2024, 11:53:24 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:47:30 AM

There are quite a few energy storage projects going on around us as well, including one right by my house.  Telsa has a big one near Angleton.

 
Going the right direction, for sure. But per the post above where you highlighted the current fuel mix, it looks like storage capacity is currently only about 5.5% of the total energy capacity.

Quote

One of the reasons why NG is so much better is because they can ramp them up and down much quicker than other plants such as coal.  You have to have those baseline plants because wind and solar are variable. 

That's definitely true. The problem however is that you have to have the energy capacity to almost completely replace what you get from solar/wind if you're not getting reliable sun and/or wind. That's where storage can really help, because you can balance out that load. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:53:36 AM

Vogtle is in the country where land is cheap, but it's fairly close to Augusta, a decent sized city.  It's not as if the land around Vogtle is completely desolate and unused and unpopulated.  It makes sense to site such a plant near a water source and where land is cheap.

I'm in favor of wind and solar where it makes sense, but I don't think a grid can be just wind and solar obviously.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:54:56 AM

NG "peaker plants" are expensive because they don't operate very often, by design.  So when they do, they charge a lot for power.

They are basically jet engines on the ground.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:57:39 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:53:36 AM

Vogtle is in the country where land is cheap, but it's fairly close to Augusta, a decent sized city.  It's not as if the land around Vogtle is completely desolate and unused and unpopulated.  It makes sense to site such a plant near a water source and where land is cheap.

I'm in favor of wind and solar where it makes sense, but I don't think a grid can be just wind and solar obviously. 

Wind and solar alone will never make sense.  It cannot be done, and be done reliably.  No matter what, you will have days where you have very little wind, and then somedays where you have very little sun.  And then there will be days where you have neither wind nor sun, which even if it only happens 3-4 days per year, that's too much.  It has to be 100% available 100% of the time.  Really, it needs to be like 130% available, to account for failures, outages, and unplanned capacity needs.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:58:44 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2024, 11:53:24 AM

 
Going the right direction, for sure. But per the post above where you highlighted the current fuel mix, it looks like storage capacity is currently only about 5.5% of the total energy capacity.

That's definitely true. The problem however is that you have to have the energy capacity to almost completely replace what you get from solar/wind if you're not getting reliable sun and/or wind. That's where storage can really help, because you can balance out that load.

Yep, and 5 years ago the capacity would be 0%.  So we're creeping up energy storage, where it makes sense.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2024, 12:53:16 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:15:10 AM

You'd need 49 farms 1 x 1 mile to be equial.  My point is it takes a lot of room for solar.  One might see what seems to be a massive solar farm that in fact is pretty insignificant.

(https://i.imgur.com/SCK2RRI.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 02:39:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:15:10 AM

You'd need 49 farms 1 x 1 mile to be equial.  My point is it takes a lot of room for solar.  One might see what seems to be a massive solar farm that in fact is pretty insignificant.

The newest two power reactors that just opened recently are 34 miles south of Augusta and  18 miles from the small town of Waynesboro.  The land around the plant is farm land mostly, not unoccupied.  It did take forever and a lot of money to get the plants built.

We have about 10 solar farms right here in my county already, and a few more are planned.  Some are the same farm, with different expansions.  There a bunch being built in Wharton county as well.  

I didn't literally mean that the Nuke plant is in the middle of nowhere, obviously there are settlements in and around where it is.  
But you said it, it's in the middle of large swaths of farmland.  I'm contrasting it with say the plants in Cali that are right by populated cities and the ones on the East Coast right next to cities etc.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 03:05:50 PM

There is only one nuke in CA.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2024, 07:00:04 AM

There has never been an October, or any MONTH, without rain in Atlanta since recordkeeping began in 1878. Those few showers we saw over the weekend didn’t fall at the airport, so the record stands. No rain is in the forecast through Thursday 10/31, and no rain is in the forecast over the next 7 days.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2024, 07:31:00 AM

didn't atlanta get rain from the hurricane

was that over a month ago already?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2024, 07:38:39 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 29, 2024, 07:31:00 AM

didn't atlanta get rain from the hurricane

was that over a month ago already?

Milton passed over Florida and moved into the Atlantic. October 10.

Helene hit Florida and proceeded North to cause a lot of damage with heavy rains. September 28.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2024, 07:41:07 AM

sept 28th

time flies when you're havin fun

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2024, 07:47:28 AM

Helene caused some rain here, but it wasn't dramatic, some flooding in a few areas and some trees down.  It went east of us.  October is often a dry month here but not this dry, I don't see visible evidence of drought stress, but the trees are starting to drop leaves anyway.  It's still pretty green.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2024, 07:47:40 AM

It was actually the 26th. Ian was on the 28th in 2022. 

Ian PTSD.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2024, 09:29:32 AM

Heavy machinery is used to dismantle a dam on the South Anna River in Ashland, VA, on Oct. 1. Removing the dam gives several species of fish access to more than 400 miles of historic spawning grounds.
The environmental studies professor can’t help but whoop when he rounds the corner to see heavy machinery demolishing a dam that has blocked fish passage for more than a century. 
“I love that,” Charles “Chas” Gowan hollers over a barrage of hydraulic hammering.
Gowan works at Randolph-Macon College a few miles from this stretch of the South Anna River in Ashland, VA. He’s been waiting a long time for this dam that once ran a mill to be removed. So has Alan Weaver, fish passage coordinator for the Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources, who’s monitored fish species here for more than 30 years.
To hear them tell it, species like hickory shad, American shad and striped bass have been knocking at the door of this dam for years, waiting for its removal to open up more than 400 miles of historic spawning grounds. Weaver has seen similar species venture to the upper reaches of the Rappahannock River since the even larger Embrey Dam was removed in 2004, and he’s confident they’ll see similar results here.

(https://i.imgur.com/CLbcQpD.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2024, 09:49:16 AM

God save the shad

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2024, 07:12:04 AM

6.0 earthquake strikes off Oregon Coast, 173 miles west of Bandon | king5.com (https://www.king5.com/article/weather/earthquakes/earthquake-oregon-coast/283-bc014fc5-c8be-4506-a955-37c8357cbe45)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on October 31, 2024, 07:43:56 AM

Finally, a little rain here in SE Texas. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 31, 2024, 08:49:37 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2024, 12:53:16 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/SCK2RRI.png)

Hey, that's my hood. 

Vegas has a lot of solar farms. I believe MGM owns one that powers all of their properties, which is most of the strip. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 31, 2024, 09:05:10 AM

plenty of acres and sq miles there for solar

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 31, 2024, 09:25:05 AM

Quote from: Gigem on October 31, 2024, 07:43:56 AM

Finally, a little rain here in SE Texas.

Congrats.  Nothing here.  A few clouds, lots of wind that keeps messing up my Halloween decorations.  I predict my house will get zero measurable rain out of all of this stuff that is forecast for the next week.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 31, 2024, 09:35:31 AM

we finally got some rain here last night, after 6 weeks or more
Supposed to get more Saturday night, sunday, and monday

forecast for game time in Lincoln is rain and 60 degrees
I'll take a poncho
Someone is twisting my arm

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 31, 2024, 10:41:26 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 31, 2024, 09:05:10 AM

plenty of acres and sq miles there for solar

Scenery too scenic. 

There's like 8 National Parks on that map. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 31, 2024, 10:49:18 AM

well, we'll try not to clutter the scenic spots with solar panels

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on October 31, 2024, 10:53:22 AM

We should put solar panels on the tops of all of these ridges, and then a windmill right in the middle of this arch:

(https://i.imgur.com/K9CDHuM.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on October 31, 2024, 10:59:49 AM

might be some area in the Amarillo, to Lubbock to Odessa area in Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 01, 2024, 08:40:44 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/4dmkoWK.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/nyHQ1Ub.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2024, 09:02:16 AM

I suspect we're all for solar where it makes sense.  If it makes sense.  Have at it.  My real point is that it takes a lot of land to generate significant power that still is intermittent.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 01, 2024, 09:21:33 AM

(https://static.euronews.com/articles/stories/05/55/61/00/1052x591_cmsv2_760f1a44-b383-504d-927a-d64a11dda063-5556100.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2024, 09:27:00 AM

keep building

as long as it's not with my tax $$$

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2024, 09:28:51 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on October 31, 2024, 10:59:49 AM

might be some area in the Amarillo, to Lubbock to Odessa area in Texas

Tons of wind and solar there already, but there's certainly room for more.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 01, 2024, 09:31:40 AM

We just need a Dyson sphere. 

(https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/dyson-sphere-hypothetical-megastructure-completely-encompasses-star-dyson-sphere-hypothetical-megastructure-255697723.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 01, 2024, 12:19:06 PM

Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico has 70% of formation (https://winknews.com/2024/11/01/development-gulf-of-mexico-70-development-chance/)

Hopefully nothing of note.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2024, 07:42:34 PM

hopefully nothing that will impact Iowa or Austin, TX

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 01, 2024, 08:56:45 PM

Both are doomed. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2024, 10:00:41 AM

A question I've been pondering is "peak oil usage".  I posted a prediction on this on the other thread showing it would be about 2035.  That sounds about right, at some point EVs will cut into petroleum needs/demand.  Then what?  Well, oil producing entities will have to cut production of course to keep prices up somewhere, though I expect price erosion will happen, probably oil wars, economically speaking.  Eventually, at some point, we'll be awash in oil that no many need or want.  We still need it for chemical production and a lot of transportation will need it, but less than today by enough to matter.

Will lower prices then feedback into making EVs less competitive?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2024, 10:38:41 AM

Snow in Hawaii, a place worth seeing if you ever have a chance.

(https://i.imgur.com/w86kPYK.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2024, 08:50:16 AM

been there, seen that

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2024, 08:50:35 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2024, 10:00:41 AM

A question I've been pondering is "peak oil usage".  I posted a prediction on this on the other thread showing it would be about 2035.  That sounds about right, at some point EVs will cut into petroleum needs/demand.  Then what?  Well, oil producing entities will have to cut production of course to keep prices up somewhere, though I expect price erosion will happen, probably oil wars, economically speaking.  Eventually, at some point, we'll be awash in oil that no many need or want.  We still need it for chemical production and a lot of transportation will need it, but less than today by enough to matter.

Will lower prices then feedback into making EVs less competitive?

I hope so

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 08:54:15 AM

My guess is producers will try and mirror the drop in demand such that the price doesn't drop much if any, but some might cheat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2024, 08:58:05 AM

yup, those folks will get desperate 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 09:01:23 AM

I THINK countries like Qatar and the UAE and SA are planning for that day when they have to trim production.  It's years off of course, they can invest in other stuff.  The city of Dubai is an example, a dusty desert town transformed completely into a very modern large city now.  They do need some kind of other industry, and I think they also have other issues.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2024, 09:03:38 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 03, 2024, 08:50:16 AM

been there, seen that

Me too. In Chicago. Not flying to Hawaii to see more snow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2024, 09:07:30 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/o7g1oQa.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 09:18:09 AM

The top of Mauna Kea is "other worldly".  I've never visited a place that looked like I'd expect Mars to look to that extent.  You can't get to the top of Mauna Loa by vehicle, maybe a mountain bike would.  It's almost as tall and a whole lot larger.  

(https://i.imgur.com/bBFGLh3.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 03, 2024, 09:44:26 AM

I’ve never worked in an oil refinery but I have been in a petrochemical facility. My understanding is that when you refine a barrel of oil you get a crack spread.  So much percentage of gasoline, diesel, naphtha, kerosene, all the way up and down the hydrocarbons molecular chain.  You can adjust the spread by increasing the heat here or lowering the heat there but you can’t just make 90% of one thing.

(https://i.imgur.com/dFZX9AX.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 03, 2024, 09:56:50 AM

What I can’t understand is what’s going to happen to the entire supply chain of hydrocarbons if we see a decrease in the demand for gasoline and diesel. You still need naphtha, fuel oil, jet fuel, all the heavies and lights that they use to make tires and asphalt. You can’t just not make the fuel ( diesel and gas) , or at least I don’t think you can. You might be able to then reprocess the fuel to turn it into something else, but I have no idea how that works. 

I suspect that there will be a lot of cheap fuel available and 3rd world countries will use it. Heavy industry will use it too, because a lot of this construction equipment isn’t ideal to run on battery power or electricity. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 09:59:17 AM

Petroleum cracking, also known as "cracking," is a chemical process that breaks down large hydrocarbon molecules into smaller, lighter molecules. This process is a vital step in the refining of crude oil and is used to produce gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and other petroleum products. 

Cracking is performed by subjecting the hydrocarbon molecules to high temperatures and pressures, or by using catalytic agents. The rate of cracking and the end products depend on the temperature and the presence of catalysts. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 10:05:12 AM

You can "crack" the heavies to lighter compounds, but it's not feasible to go the other direction.  Gasoline is generally the seven carbon chains up to about ten (C-7-C10), it varies a bit in winter, it can have some down to C4 (which is highly volatile) up to C12.  Diesel is about C10 to C20. 

Preferred gasoline is branched (to provide high "octane"), and preferred Diesel is straight (to provide high Cetane, low Octane).  Octane chemically of course is a C8 hydrocarbon compound, but in gasoline, it refers to the degree of branching (along with other additives like ethanol which is an octane enhancer).

You can find gasoline without ethanol, it costs more because it's more expensive to get the octane up without ethanol.  High octane gas once was called "ethyl" because it contained tetraethyl lead, which was never a good idea environmentally. 

(https://i.imgur.com/fjNzHwW.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2024, 10:07:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 09:18:09 AM

The top of Mauna Kea is "other worldly".  I've never visited a place that looked like I'd expect Mars to look to that extent.  You can't get to the top of Mauna Loa by vehicle, maybe a mountain bike would.  It's almost as tall and a whole lot larger. 

(https://i.imgur.com/bBFGLh3.jpeg)

Yeah, I'm hoping to get there. We're talking about it next year. 

I've been to the top of Haleakala on Maui, and did the hike of the crater. Kind of agree--it seemed like hiking on the moon or something. And then some of the plants as you dropped a bit in elevation were amazing and completely different from anything I've ever seen closer to sea level. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 10:16:41 AM

The "Big Island" is different, in my mind, a lot of it is very desolate, just black and brown rock as far as one can see.  Parts are tropical rain forest.  Parts are resorts (mostly on the western side).  A good portion is cattle and horse ranches, it looks like Texas.  My wife likes it a lot, unfortunately.

The beaches, in my view, are not that great.  The sand is brownish and coarse, there can be rock outcroppings that can skin your feet.  Some are quite pretty, palm trees and whatnot, some have pools just inland.  The resorts are quite nice.

We usually drive to Volcano NP when we're there, of late not much has been happening though.  Chain of Craters road is interesting.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2024, 10:21:19 AM

Kauai is my favorite of the islands. Oahu is fine, particularly the North Shore.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 10:25:15 AM

The last time we were on Mauna Kea, this happened, suddenly.  It snowed even heavier on us a minute later but the rangers came by and said we had to leave now.  It was really coming down.

(https://i.imgur.com/F65xm5f.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2024, 10:25:56 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 10:16:41 AM

The "Big Island" is different, in my mind, a lot of it is very desolate, just black and brown rock as far as one can see.  Parts are tropical rain forest.  Parts are resorts (mostly on the western side).  A good portion is cattle and horse ranches, it looks like Texas.  My wife likes it a lot, unfortunately.

The beaches, in my view, are not that great.  The sand is brownish and coarse, there can be rock outcroppings that can skin your feet.  Some are quite pretty, palm trees and whatnot, some have pools just inland.  The resorts are quite nice.

We usually drive to Volcano NP when we're there, of late not much has been happening though.  Chain of Craters road is interesting.

I've never been. My wife has been once, but that was when she was with her ex who wasn't exactly the type to drive up to the top of desolate mountains for fun, and CERTAINLY not to hike lol :57: 

Her really good friends in Long Beach lost their dad earlier this year, and he was a vet so they plan next year to take his ashes to Honolulu for his military funeral service. We're going to go along for that and then plan to hop over to the big island as part of the same trip. 

Speaking of weather, the Haleakala hike was a crazy day. Get up and into the car at 3 AM, drive up to the top of a mountain at 10,000 ft where it's 32 degrees to see the sunrise service. Then an 11.5 mile hike where the weather kept getting better and better--until it started raining sideways. Back in the car, completely drenched, go back down the mountain to get back to Kaanapali where it's 80 degrees and sunny. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 10:32:00 AM

A thing to bear in mind, the airlines there charge baggage fees, and your status on Delta or whatever means nothing to them. 

I think Kauai is more like what folks think "Hawaii" really is.  Oahu is in places, but Honolulu is a large city there.  Maui had a lot of "commercial areas" that didn't look great to me, along with the resorts and the mountain.  We had friends who went to Molokai, the photos looked "primitive".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2024, 10:45:38 AM

This is looking down off Chain of Craters road, which is one way, it ends down there a ways.  You can see the road down below, altitute where the photo was taken is around 4,000 feet.

(https://i.imgur.com/1MMoecE.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2024, 12:45:53 PM

Quote from: Gigem on November 03, 2024, 09:56:50 AM

I suspect that there will be a lot of cheap fuel available and 3rd world countries will use it. Heavy industry will use it too, because a lot of this construction equipment isn’t ideal to run on battery power or electricity.

the ethanol industry will dry up with plenty of cheap gasoline
corn prices will drop

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 03, 2024, 12:53:00 PM

Is the Gilligan's Island set preserved/intact?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2024, 05:21:53 PM

Hope this holds. We need a break.

(https://i.imgur.com/JLVuOBT.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on November 03, 2024, 05:27:43 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2024, 05:21:53 PM

Hope this holds. We need a break.

(https://i.imgur.com/JLVuOBT.png)

Its very unusual for a named storm to hit this late in the year

I think this will only be a rain maker with low winds (under 50)

lets hope

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 03, 2024, 06:22:14 PM

What would the weather be like if all the world's super volcanoes erupted at once? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 03, 2024, 08:20:51 PM

Still pretty warm here. Like 80’s or a tad higher. No cold front in sight. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2024, 06:41:52 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 03, 2024, 06:22:14 PM

What would the weather be like if all the world's super volcanoes erupted at once?

I don't know how many SVs exist really in the world today, but the one in the US would bury a lot of us in ash and lower T considerably.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 05, 2024, 07:15:52 AM

Marcus are you getting any of this rain ?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 05, 2024, 07:21:02 AM

getting rain here in dry Iowa

better than snow, this time of year

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2024, 07:22:10 AM

I think officially we got a bit of rain the last day in October, so the entire month wasn't "dry", but it was dry practicably.  We're expecting rain showers over the next few days.  Plamts don't seem stressed probably because they are going dormant.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on November 06, 2024, 09:38:35 AM

Quote from: Gigem on November 05, 2024, 07:15:52 AM

Marcus are you getting any of this rain ? 

Yes!  First measurable rain in 13 weeks, we got almost 2 inches.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2024, 09:41:51 AM

Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2024, 05:27:43 PM

Its very unusual for a named storm to hit this late in the year

I think this will only be a rain maker with low winds (under 50)

lets hope

That's the consensus now - It will not hit the gulf states as a storm.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2024, 09:42:29 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/cPBBPYc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2024, 01:29:16 PM

One thing that seems pretty certain is that the US won't be spending (much) money on climate change for at least four years.  The rebate on EVs might continue (Musk).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2024, 01:36:36 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/HwPahdd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2024, 07:50:37 AM

I really hate it when the media does this. This garbage was published 30 minutes ago.

Rare November Hurricane Raphael set to ravage the US as chilling maps show storm's path of devastation (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/rare-november-hurricane-raphael-set-to-ravage-the-us-as-chilling-maps-show-storm-s-path-of-devastation/ar-AA1tFX26?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=9ae7737c094a42a0973f91d98e335f80&ei=17)



Reality:

(https://i.imgur.com/Fnhjf5Q.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on November 07, 2024, 09:38:51 AM

Looks sort of like a limpdick storm to me...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2024, 09:39:18 AM

I hate the media

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2024, 11:26:06 AM

I don't "hate" the news media, I make an effort to see them as they are, and use the information they purvey rather carefully.

I find the business news outlets are generally the best.  They don't usually have articles on movie stars and whatevers.  I think their readers are there for the basic news, not opinion and fluff pieces.  I don't watch TV news of any ilk unless my wife has local news on to catch the weather (which is weird to me since a phone app does that in seconds).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2024, 12:52:45 PM

I watch the local news and sometimes ABC news with david muir

not terrible

it's the click bait crap like Badge posted that I hate

mostly because many uninformed idgits buy into it and spread it around as truthful or factual

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 07, 2024, 03:19:48 PM

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/188jpo7sNy/
(https://i.imgur.com/hXH41zl.png)

Been a really hot fall. Almost like summer, many high-80's and even some low 90's type days. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2024, 11:40:19 AM

This storm is drunk. Cannot walk a straight line.

(https://i.imgur.com/RklgF3h.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2024, 10:20:15 PM

WASHINGTON —
Oil and natural gas companies for the first time will have to pay a federal fee if they emit dangerous methane above certain levels under a final rule announced Tuesday by the Biden administration.

The Environmental Protection Agency rule follows through on a directive from Congress included in the 2022 climate law. The new fee is intended to encourage industry to adopt best practices that reduce emissions of methane — the primary component of natural gas — and thereby avoid paying.

Methane is a climate “super pollutant” that is far more potent in the short term than carbon dioxide and is responsible for about one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. The oil and natural gas sector is the largest industrial source of methane emissions in the United States, and advocates say reduction of methane emissions is a crucial way to slow climate change.

The rule, announced at an international climate conference in Azerbaijan, comes a day after President-elect Donald Trump named former New York congressman Lee Zeldin to head the agency in Trump's second term. If confirmed by the Senate, Zeldin is expected to move to reverse or loosen dozens of environmental regulations approved under President Joe Biden as Trump seeks to establish U.S. “energy dominance″ worldwide.

Trump is likely to target the methane fee amid a flurry of expected actions he has promised to deregulate the oil and gas industry.

As outlined by the EPA, excess methane produced in 2024 could result in a fee of $900 per ton, with fees rising to $1,200 per ton in 2025 and $1,500 per ton by 2026. Industry groups are likely to challenge the rule, including any effort to impose a retroactive fee.

The rule will not become final until early next year, following publication in the Federal Register.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2024, 04:23:49 AM

I'm curious how and who would measure said methane emissions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 13, 2024, 05:55:55 AM

I don’t know about other facilities, but in ours we track fugitive emissions.  Every flange and connection is tagged, and they come around about once per quarter with portable emissions equipment and test each connection. Those that fail have to be repaired within a certain amount of time, like 3-30 days, and if they’re not they are reported. They’re reported anyways, but you may have what’s called a Title V deviation. They also monitor our flares, which are a big emissions source because not all the combustible gas is destructed. When you’re burning millions of pounds of HRVOCs you’re going to release thousands of pounds of unburned chemicals, unless you’re using a thermal oxidizer.  

There’s no bullshit either. If we leak it, they report it. They’re very strict on that, internally. And, we’ve actually upgraded our emissions checking equipment over time to get better results. Faster GC’S, more sensitive GC’S, better flow meters, etc. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2024, 08:59:25 AM

Might be a problem.

(https://i.imgur.com/brkamsY.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2024, 09:22:53 AM

Quote from: Gigem on November 13, 2024, 05:55:55 AM

There’s no bullshit either. If we leak it, they report it. They’re very strict on that, internally. And, we’ve actually upgraded our emissions checking equipment over time to get better results. Faster GC’S, more sensitive GC’S, better flow meters, etc.

I'm sure China is doing the same

;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2024, 09:26:37 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2024, 08:59:25 AM

Might be a problem.

[img width=500 height=280.985]https://i.imgur.com/brkamsY.jpeg[/img]

Surely the Gulf waters aren't warm enough any longer, for this to become a real problem...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2024, 09:30:56 AM

ABC national news said 90% chance last night

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2024, 09:32:09 AM

Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2024, 09:26:37 AM

Surely the Gulf waters aren't warm enough any longer, for this to become a real problem...

It greatly depends on where it makes its turn. If it goes in between Mexico and Cuba, it will be strong at that point.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2024, 05:27:58 AM

Have greenhouse gas emissions finally peaked? : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2024/11/13/nx-s1-5178085/climate-change-emissions-peak-cop29)

Even when emissions start to fall, the Earth will still be on track for extreme impacts from climate change. Any added greenhouse gases will keep warming the planet. Emissions would need to be cut roughly in half by 2035 (https://www.npr.org/2024/10/24/nx-s1-5157789/climate-change-emissions-greenhouse-gases-united-nations) to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the key benchmark countries agreed to pursue in climate negotiations.
"We know that peaking is the start of the journey," says Neil Grant, a senior climate and energy analyst at Climate Analytics, a climate think tank.
"But peaking emissions would be a real sign of human agency. If we could say: look, we can turn the corner, that would highlight to me that we do have power and so it would be a hopeful thing for me."



I see zero chance human emissions will be cut by half by 2035.  I would like to see some sort of realistic projection showing it to be possible.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2024, 05:42:37 AM

Younger Dryas | Definition, Causes, & Termination | Britannica (https://www.britannica.com/science/Younger-Dryas-climate-interval)

Younger Dryas, cool period between roughly 12,900 and 11,600 years ago that disrupted the prevailing (https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/prevailing) warming trend occurring in the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the Pleistocene Epoch (https://www.britannica.com/science/Pleistocene-Epoch) (which lasted from 2.6 million to 11,700 years ago). The Younger Dryas was characterized by cooler average temperatures (https://www.britannica.com/science/temperature) that returned parts of Europe (https://www.britannica.com/place/Europe) and North America (https://www.britannica.com/place/North-America) to ice age (https://www.britannica.com/science/ice-age-geology) conditions. The onset of the Younger Dryas took less than 100 years, and the period persisted for roughly 1,300 years. After the period ended, an interval of rapid warming followed, and average temperatures increased to near present-day levels. The Younger Dryas was named after Dryas octopetala, a pale yellow wildflower of the rose (https://www.britannica.com/plant/rose-plant) family, typical of cold open Arctic environments (https://www.britannica.com/science/environment).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2024, 05:43:23 AM

Such dramatic climatic reversals occurring in such a short time cannot be explained by Milankovitch cycles (https://www.britannica.com/science/climate-change/Evidence-for-climate-change#ref275771) (that is, cyclical changes to the shape of Earth (https://www.britannica.com/place/Earth/Basic-planetary-data#ref54194)’s orbit, the tilt of Earth’s axis, and the wobblelike movement of Earth on its axis with respect to the Sun), which play out over tens of thousands of years. A number of hypotheses (https://www.britannica.com/science/hypothesis) have been proposed to explain the Younger Dryas, but so far there is no consensus (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/consensus) on its cause.

The leading hypothesis (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis), first proposed by Finnish scientist Claes Rooth in 1982 and later expanded by American climatologist Wallace Broecker and others, postulated that large amounts of fresh water (https://www.britannica.com/science/water) were discharged into the North Atlantic about 12,800 years ago. More specifically, the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (https://www.britannica.com/place/Laurentide-Ice-Sheet) allowed Lake Agassiz (https://www.britannica.com/place/Lake-Agassiz), a glacial meltwater lake that covered a large part of north-central North America (https://www.britannica.com/place/North-America), to drain eastward into the Atlantic Ocean (https://www.britannica.com/place/Atlantic-Ocean) rather than southward into the Mississippi River (https://www.britannica.com/place/Mississippi-River). Broecker and American geologist George Denton proposed that this large influx of fresh water may have stopped higher-density seawater (https://www.britannica.com/science/seawater) in the North Atlantic from descending to lower depths, thereby interrupting thermohaline circulation (https://www.britannica.com/science/thermohaline-circulation) (a system of surface and deepwater currents (https://www.britannica.com/science/ocean-current) that distributes large amounts of heat (https://www.britannica.com/science/heat) around the globe) and initiating a short-term return to glacial conditions.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2024, 05:44:50 AM

The first evidence of the Younger Dryas came from ice cores (https://www.britannica.com/science/ice-core) taken from European maritime environments (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/environments) dating to the late Pleistocene (https://www.britannica.com/science/Pleistocene-Epoch). The ice cores showed that the warming process produced abrupt wholesale melting of late Pleistocene glaciers (https://www.britannica.com/science/glacier). Subsequent examination of terrestrial plants (https://www.britannica.com/plant/plant) and pollen (https://www.britannica.com/science/pollen) in the cores indicated that forests (https://www.britannica.com/science/forest) were replaced by tundra (https://www.britannica.com/science/tundra) vegetation during a cool period.

The timing of past climatic fluctuations has been determined by measuring the ratio of two oxygen (https://www.britannica.com/science/oxygen) isotopes (https://www.britannica.com/science/isotope), oxygen-18 and oxygen-16, present in air (https://www.britannica.com/science/air) bubbles trapped in different layers of the ice. Isotope data suggests that central Greenland (https://www.britannica.com/topic/Greenland-Ice-core-Project-Greenland-Ice-Sheet-Project-2) was nearly 14 °C (24.5 °F) colder during the Younger Dryas than it is today and that the sudden warming that ended the Younger Dryas took about 40 to 50 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2024, 09:20:02 AM

The thinking by the locals here is that this one will die in the Gulf due to high wind shear and dry upper air.

(https://i.imgur.com/QW1GOrS.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/9wzrFZK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2024, 09:56:52 AM

Recently, AVL RACETECH has established various records, such as a 400 Horse Power hydrogen engine, which has been rotated at 6,500 RPM. The following sections of the article look at the dynamics of this new powertrain technology, its associated problems, and its future.

How water-injected hydrogen engines address preignition issues effectively
Hydrogen combustion engines have been developed into an exciting form of fuel compared to traditional fuels. Hydrogen combustion engines operate more like gasoline engines, where fuel is combusted. A significant advancement implemented in the AVL RACETECH’s engine is water injection to eliminate preignition, a problem associated with hydrogen because of its high reactivity.

Water injection has an or instead serves the function of combustion control, which activates the engine and assists it in increasing overall power and torque to safe levels.

Among the strengths of hydrogen are that it combusts very cleanly, and the byproduct of the combustion is water. However, it has a high reactivity, which creates the possibility of preignition – combustion occurring before necessary.

If not controlled, this leads to colossal cylinder pressure, which is dangerous to the engine. Water injection provides a way of cooling the combustion chamber and minimizing the chances of unwanted combustion; thus, AVL’s hydrogen engine can develop 400 horsepower without compromising engine stability.

Meeting motorsport power demands with innovative hydrogen fuel technology
The AVL RACETECH hydrogen engine is optimized with racing applications in mind, or in other words, motorsports. The engine outputs 400 horsepower and revs to 6,500 RPM, both figures being on par with standard racing engines.

Engineers struggled to apply gaseous fuels such as hydrogen to high power usage. This necessitated the need for elaborate injectors that can deliver large volumes of fuel with high accuracy; AVL came up with hydrogen injector technologies that have enabled it to achieve good power and torque figures while using this fuel.

The combustion of hydrogen can be seen as an attempt to bring sustainable racing near the sound and power of traditional engines. AVL RACETECH is working towards making this technology available for lower-cost, smaller racing classes as a base for motorsport to go green.

With hydrogen classes likely to be introduced in Le Mans by 2027, hydrogen combustion engines may become a familiar sight in racing and possibly a new frontier of sustainable, high-performance motoring engineering.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2024, 10:01:40 AM

I wonder which is better overall, hydrogen in an ICE or hydrogen in a fuel cell.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2024, 10:03:27 AM

well, the fuel cell is an extra step to convert to electricity

the ICE turns the crank

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on November 14, 2024, 10:06:20 AM

Quote

I see zero chance human emissions will be cut by half by 2035.  I would like to see some sort of realistic projection showing it to be possible.

I'd bet you if anything emissions will be up, rather than down or level.  Even though emissions may be down across N America and Europe, the developing world won't care about cutting them.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2024, 10:17:03 AM

My GUESS is by 2035, emissions will be down a bit, or flat, or at least not up significantly.  But that could be wrong.  China and India might just continue on the same path they are on today, there isn't anything to stop them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2024, 08:53:39 AM

Nothingburger. Earlier this week, certain media outlets were trying to scare is that this could hit here as a CAT 3 or more. F them.

(https://i.imgur.com/RauiFhX.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2024, 09:07:25 AM

Quote from: Gigem on November 14, 2024, 10:06:20 AM

I'd bet you if anything emissions will be up, rather than down or level.  Even though emissions may be down across N America and Europe, the developing world won't care about cutting them. 

This is why I "preach" that we need a discussion based on reality, not hocus pocus stuff, or miracles.  Presuming CC is real and the models are roughly correct, "we" should be saying "Hey, we're going to do what we can, but realistically it isn't much, so "we" need to prepare for stuff likely to happen 30-40 years down the road, mainly slightly higher Ts and some sea level rise and perhaps stronger storms.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2024, 09:25:13 AM

like some folks trying to make a Cat3 out of a nuthing burger?

and some wonder why there's a group of folks that don't believe in Global warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2024, 09:28:29 AM

Climate Change got political, in part due to Al Gore, and in part due to folks like Trump.  It really shouldn't be political, but is.

It's time "we" dealt with it honestly, but that won't happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2024, 09:35:15 AM

COVID-19 got political

people have been lied to enough that they make up their own facts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2024, 09:47:23 AM

Abortion got political.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2024, 09:59:04 AM

everything gets political these daze

I blame politicians and news media

they both gain from it

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2024, 10:10:35 AM

When a topic gets political, what we hear MOST is from the extremes on both sides, both of which often are wrong or misleading.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2024, 10:15:44 AM

every campaign ad the last 12 months

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2024, 09:32:03 AM

A big boost to Europe’s climate change goals | Knowable Magazine (https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/food-environment/2024/big-boost-europe-carbon-neutral-goals-cbam)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2024, 09:59:37 PM

ExxonMobil is planning a big lithium extraction project in Arkansas, and they’ve signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to supply up to 100,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate to LG Chem. This lithium will go to LG Chem’s massive cathode plant in Tennessee – a facility that’s set to become the largest of its kind in the country.

The LG Chem plant, which broke ground in December 2023, is expected to produce 60,000 tons of cathode material annually – enough to support a lot of EVs. Its location in Tennessee is also ideal for quick deliveries to US manufacturers and easy import of raw materials, streamlining the entire supply chain for domestic EV production.

The final go-ahead for ExxonMobil’s lithium project will depend on regulatory approvals and other factors. But if everything falls into place, this partnership could help secure a more stable, lower-emission lithium supply for US EV makers, which could be a big win for the industry.

In February, LG Chem made a 10-year deal with General Motors to supply 500,000 tons of cathode material, enough for around 5 million EVs. The contract will commence in 2026 – when the factory is expected to come online – and run until 2035.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2024, 08:47:44 AM

Why China is a climate technology leader, even with coal plants : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2024/11/22/g-s1-35303/trump-china-solar-climate-change-renewable-energy-coal)

Not a very illuminating article in my view.  They dodge the major issue and make excuses for others.

As part of the Paris climate treaty, countries have to announce targets to make deeper cuts to their own climate pollution by 2035. The hope is that all the pollution cuts combined will limit the world's warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to average global temperatures from the late 1800s. Beyond that limit, extreme weather like heat waves and storms is expected to get far worse, scientists say.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2024, 09:13:24 AM

Nuclear startup Kairos Power received approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to start construction on two test reactors in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The permit marks a significant milestone for Kairos, which in October inked a deal with Google to provide 500 megawatts of electricity for its data centers.

The fluoride-salt cooled, high-temperature reactors are scaled down versions of what Kairos hopes to ultimately build to supply Google with electricity starting in 2030. And while the new reactors are technically test beds, Kairos intends to connect the power plant to the grid, spokesperson Ashley Lewis told TechCrunch.


The Hermes 2 reactors will be capable of producing 35 megawatts of heat each, and they’ll be connected to a 20 megawatt turbine to turn that heat into electricity. Kairos’ commercial-scale power plant will also feature two reactors capable of generating a combined 150 megawatts of electricity.

Kairos’ design differs from existing nuclear reactors in two key ways: The fuel is made of uranium coated in carbon and ceramic shells, which are intended to be durable enough to contain fissile material in the case of an accident. And the reactor isn’t cooled by water but by molten salt.

The small modular reactor (SMR) startup, which has received a $303 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy, has been working for years to refine its molten salt-cooling system. Fluoride salts’ extremely high boiling points allow the coolant to flow under low pressure. That means in the case of an accident, there won’t be any high-pressure, radioactive material waiting to burst forth should pumping systems fail. Plus, Oak Ridge National Laboratory says that, should power to the pumps fail, molten-salt reactors can rely on passive convection to move salt through the reactor to cool it.

Altogether, those features are enough to qualify Kairos’ designs as “Generation IV” reactors, a classification system created by an international organization backed by national nuclear agencies. The classification system is both vague and broad, so it’s hard to tell exactly how Hermes 2 might score on the rubric.

Kairos has been inching toward approval for the reactor design for the last year and a half. Hermes 2 passed its safety review with the NRC in July and its environmental assessment in August. All told, it took 18 months for the NRC to issue the construction permit, a relatively swift timeline compared with previous reactor permits.


Now the pressure is on Kairos to deliver on its promises. The company says it hopes to have the first reactor for the Google deal online in 2030 and the rest completed by 2035. In the world of nuclear power, a decade isn’t much time at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2024, 07:19:40 AM

Atmospheric rivers aren't new. Why does it feel like we're hearing about them more? : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2024/11/22/nx-s1-5198888/atmospheric-rivers-california-west-coast-flooding-rain-storms)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2024, 09:47:05 AM

UN climate deal will send $300 billion to developing countries : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2024/11/23/nx-s1-5202805/cop29-climate-change-un-azerbaijan)

Per year.  I doubt it gets paid more than a pittance.

The climate talks were held at the end of what will almost certainly be the hottest year on record (https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-virtually-certain-be-warmest-year-and-first-year-above-15degc). Global temperatures are rising mainly because of heat-trapping pollution that's created when people burn fossil fuels like coal and oil. Global emissions rose to a new record in 2023 (https://www.npr.org/2024/10/24/nx-s1-5157789/climate-change-emissions-greenhouse-gases-united-nations), and the world is nowhere close to meeting a goal countries set to limit warming in order to reduce the risks of worsening disasters from extreme weather like floods and heat waves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2024, 09:59:09 AM

mainly because

and I'm guessing a new record in 2024 and another new record in 2025

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2024, 10:02:17 AM

My view is these "negotiators" like this gig, they fly into COP meetings, first class or in business jets, stay in high falutin' hotels, attend some meetings and talk talk talk, go out for a sumptuous dinner at the best restaurants, talk some more, make various "agreements" that clearly mean squat, and go home.  It's a scam.  They COULD video conference this stuff and show a little bit of whatever.

I'm highly disgusted with the whole spiel.  Time to be honest about this mess, but that won't happen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2024, 10:34:47 AM

yup, if you're going to spend the time and effort to have an important meeting........... DO SOMETHING!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2024, 10:50:27 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2024, 10:34:47 AM

yup, if you're going to spend the time and effort to have an important meeting........... DO SOMETHING!!!

They do. The fly private, stay in opulent hotels and eat 5* food.

That is SOMETHING!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2024, 10:52:51 AM

yes, with their actions they are saying, "F it dude, let's go bowling"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 08:35:16 AM

They're here to finance climate action. But COP29 is more about bickering (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/25/theyre-here-to-finance-climate-action-but-cop29-is-more-about-bickering-.html)

Meeting the goals under the agreement, which include keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial temperatures, could cost as much as $8 trillion annually, according to a report released last week (https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/raising-ambition-and-accelerating-delivery-of-climate-finance/) by the Independent High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 08:36:12 AM

This group might agree to finding $X, but none of them have any authority to allocate those amounts.  It's all for show.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2024, 08:39:15 AM

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell highlighted that the new finance goal agreed at the UN Climate Conference in Baku is an insurance policy for humanity.

“This deal will keep the clean energy boom growing and protect billions of lives.  It will help all countries to share in the huge benefits of bold climate action: more jobs, stronger growth, cheaper and cleaner energy for all. But like any insurance policy – it only works – if the premiums are paid in full, and on time.”


He acknowledged that no country got everything they wanted, and that the world leaves Baku with a mountain of work to do. “So this is no time for victory laps. We need to set our sights and redouble our efforts on the road to Belém.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2024, 08:41:09 AM

Baku Hotel | Azerbaijan Luxury Hotel | Four Seasons Hotel Baku (https://www.fourseasons.com/baku/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2024, 08:49:52 AM

Any monies that get somehow allocated to say Rwanda will end up lining certain pockets and doing very little on climate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2024, 10:51:51 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2024, 08:39:15 AM

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell highlighted that the new finance goal agreed at the UN Climate Conference in Baku is an insurance policy for humanity.

“This deal will keep the clean energy boom growing and protect billions of lives.  It will help all countries to share in the huge benefits of bold climate action: more jobs, stronger growth, cheaper and cleaner energy for all. But like any insurance policy – it only works – if the premiums are paid in full, and on time.”

a goal that won't be accomplished and if that won't happen

corngrats 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2024, 06:29:52 AM

Plastic waste and oil industry: A threat to human health and the environment (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5002803-plastic-waste-oil-industry-crisis/?tbref=hp)

OK, dude talks about the problem, I looked for any proposed solutions and .........

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 26, 2024, 10:29:24 AM

Been chilly here lately - well below normal temps. Looks like more of that is coming.

(https://i.imgur.com/HTcGJXZ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on November 26, 2024, 10:33:51 AM

Was 82 at my house yesterday.  Started in the low 40s today.  Gonna be 80 tomorrow.  The usual.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2024, 11:31:43 AM

Been too warm for a batch of chili here.
Maybe this weekend...

Lows in single digits highs in the 20s

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 26, 2024, 11:38:17 AM

High of 69 today...

(https://media1.tenor.com/m/d8GH3gU0abUAAAAC/nice-south-park.gif)

Should be a high in the upper 60s again tomorrow, but the rest of the 10-day still has highs in the 70s out beyond that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2024, 11:38:55 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/3ZFEdqu.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 26, 2024, 11:46:47 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 26, 2024, 11:38:55 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/3ZFEdqu.png)

That's about right.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 27, 2024, 08:01:17 AM

John Kerry: US 'On the Brink of Needing to Declare a Climate Emergency' (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/11/26/john-kerry-claims-u-s-on-the-brink-of-needing-to-declare-a-climate-emergency/)

Does anyone know what declaring a "climate emergency" would actually do?  OK, it's an emergency, now what?

Good grief.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 27, 2024, 08:09:20 AM

Lucky for us it's only "on the brink"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 27, 2024, 08:12:57 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2024, 08:01:17 AM

John Kerry: US 'On the Brink of Needing to Declare a Climate Emergency' (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/11/26/john-kerry-claims-u-s-on-the-brink-of-needing-to-declare-a-climate-emergency/)

Does anyone know what declaring a "climate emergency" would actually do?  OK, it's an emergency, now what?

Good grief.

Climate has been an emergency since the 1970's, when we were entering an ice age.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on November 27, 2024, 08:22:48 AM

I hereby forthwith declare a climate emergency .... problem solved!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on November 28, 2024, 02:01:09 PM

Will Volpert was rafting through a Class IV rapid on the Klamath River, in a canyon few have floated in a century, when something leaped out of the water near his oar blade.

A chinook salmon was thrashing upstream, traveling into habitat that until recently had been blocked since the early 1900s by a series of dams near the Oregon and California state line.

“He totally surprised me,” Volpert said with a laugh. “We’re in the middle of this very technical boulder garden, and I was so distracted looking for him, that we smashed into a rock.”   

Despite the smash, the moment captured what’s made exploring the “new Klamath” so fun, said Volpert, a longtime outfitter and guide on the river. After four dams were recently removed, in the largest dam removal project in United States history, an entirely new stream has sprung up in its place.


Volpert has explored segments of river that were kept dry for a century or buried under reservoirs for decades. He’s run new rapids and canyons — with new Indigenous names — all while watching the river reestablish its natural condition. 

Volpert made a map of access points, major rapids and other points of interest across about 45 miles of the “New Klamath” for anyone interested in floating the river. He’s hoping people will want to see the river, as his business, Indigo Creek Outfitters, is booking trips and putting people on a wait lists for commercial rafting adventures this coming spring and summer.


Zach Urness: You’ve dubbed the 45 river miles where dam removal occurred — on both sides of the Oregon and California state line — the “New Klamath.” What makes it new? 

Will Volpert: The “New Klamath” was a phrase that I came up with to describe the section of river that was most impacted by dam removal. Even though the river was there before, it looks totally different and behaves differently today compared to when the dams were in operation. It looks and feels like a new river.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2024, 06:43:17 PM

The hamlet of Saybrook in Ashtabula County Ohio had over 5" of snow. N.E. Ohio got hammered inless than 2 days
(https://i.imgur.com/dvDSIsV.png)
The Ohio Department of Transportation said there are numerous crews out who are facing difficulties because of the continuous snowfall.

"Although, here in Northeast Ohio, we're used to getting a lot of snow. The difference here is how quickly the snow came in," Ray Marsch with ODOT said. "There were certain areas up in Conneaut over the weekend where they were getting over three inches an hour for up to six hours. So, it was a tough feat for our plows to keep up with."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 03, 2024, 08:42:34 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2024, 08:22:48 AM

I hereby forthwith declare a climate emergency .... problem solved!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

John Kerry is as bad at his job as Ryan Day is at his

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2024, 12:33:30 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/IQDdeAW.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 04, 2024, 12:48:20 PM

Flannel weather what happened to Badger in you? On the bright side might see if my buddy still has his shanty stays like this we will be sharpening the ice augger. Winter water sports - can't beat them

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2024, 12:52:37 PM

Blood thinned out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 04, 2024, 01:05:43 PM

High of 67 today but still warm enough for me to drive the top-down Jeep to the office. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 04, 2024, 01:08:29 PM

Go play a round.....of golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2024, 05:09:23 PM

headed to the Redneck Riviera tomorrow afternoon - not for golf

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 05, 2024, 07:20:34 AM

1st snow that has stuck of the season, been colder than normal for 2-3 weeks though.The two counties east received a half a year average in two days

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2024, 07:34:15 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/05/climate/global-warming-clouds/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2024, 03:44:13 PM

Wind and Solar Can't Support the Grid - Climate Etc. (https://judithcurry.com/2024/12/05/wind-and-solar-cant-support-the-grid/#more-31718)

In October of 2024, the isolated small city of  Broken Hill in New South Wales, Australia with a 36 MW load (including the large nearby mines) could not be reliably served by 200 MW of wind, a 53 MW solar array, significant residential solar, and a large 50 MW battery all supplemented by diesel generators.

Many people falsely believe that wind, solar and batteries have been demonstrated to provide grid support and deliver energy independently in large real word applications. Few people realize that we are a long way (https://judithcurry.com/2022/10/03/the-penetration-problem-part-i-wind-and-solar-the-more-you-do-the-harder-it-gets/) away from having wind, solar and batteries support a large power system without significant amounts of conventional spinning generation (nuclear, gas, coal, hydro, geothermal) on-line to support the grid.
Broken Hill Outage – Wind, Solar and Battery Can Not Support the Grid
The recent outages occurring in Broken Hill help illustrate the inability of wind, solar and batteries to support electric grids without significant help from machines rotating in synchronism with the grid. (Note – wind power is produced by rotation but not in synchronism with the grid).
Around 20,000 people live in the Broken Hill area. Over $650 million in investment made Broken Hill home to a 200 MW wind plant, a 53 MW solar array, and a large battery (https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/how-we-source-energy/broken-hill-battery-energy-storage-system?zcf97o=vlx3ap) that could provide 50 MW of power for 100 MWh through advanced grid forming inverters. Broken Hill is home to over 6,000 small-scale solar systems providing a per capita energy small solar production level almost twice the Australian average.  The area also contains two poorly maintained diesel-powered gas turbine generators in the area, one which was off-line for maintenance.
Broken Hill became renewable energy industry’s Potemkin Village (https://nickcater.substack.com/p/empty-spin):

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 11, 2024, 11:52:19 AM

Texas leaders are reviving uranium mining to fuel nuclear reactors aimed at meeting growing energy needs, but locals fear groundwater contamination from mining and waste disposal.

In short:

Texas is promoting nuclear power as a zero-carbon energy source to support high-demand industries like tech and hydrogen production.
Uranium mining sites in South Texas, dormant for decades, are being reactivated, raising concerns about groundwater contamination.
Administrative rulings favoring environmental safety have been repeatedly overturned by state regulators, enabling mining projects to advance.
Key quote:

“We’re talking about mining at the same elevation as people get their groundwater. There isn’t another source of water for these residents.”

— Terrell Graham, board member of the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District

Why this matters:

Nuclear power is gaining momentum as a reliable, low-carbon energy solution, but its risks include water contamination from uranium mining and radioactive waste. The expansion in Texas highlights tensions between industrial growth and environmental protection, with potential long-term impacts on drinking water supplies.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2024, 07:55:27 AM

MATSUE, Japan (Kyodo) -- The only nuclear plant located in a Japanese prefectural capital was restarted Saturday in the city of Matsue after meeting stricter safety requirements introduced following the 2011 Fukushima disaster

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2024, 08:09:09 AM

The updated NOAA outlook shows a 90% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with 17 to 24 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Similarly, CSU forecasts a very active season, with 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.Aug 18, 2024

Hurricane Season 2024 Retrospective: How the reality compared to the forecast - AS USA (https://en.as.com/latest_news/hurricane-season-2024-retrospective-how-the-reality-compared-to-the-forecast-n/)
Throughout the 2024 season, there were eighteen named storms, eleven of which developed into hurricanes, exceeding NOAA’s forecast.
Five were “major storms,” which fall within the range projected by the public agency. The season got off to a strong start with Hurricane Beryl, which broke records as the earliest category 5 storm to develop in the Atlantic. Hurricane Beryl battered the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands, which are not often the targets of hurricanes, particularly too early in the season.

An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from 1 June to 30 November and is carefully monitored by the World Meteorological Organization Tropical Cyclone Programme.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2024, 08:10:16 AM

So, average is 14/7/3 and we experienced 18/11/5.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2024, 09:16:42 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/GWxCyG8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2024, 10:27:58 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 13, 2024, 08:10:16 AM

So, average is 14/7/3 and we experienced 18/11/5.

If I just predicted "average" year after year, I wouldn't be that far off.  I don't know that these long range forecasts are much better than just random wobble.  But they said the season would be up, and it was a bit, which is better than they have done in some past years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2024, 10:50:25 AM

I suggest a performance based raise for at least 10%

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2024, 04:09:49 PM

The US should help the world get the plastics treaty it deserves (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5039079-plastic-pollution-treaty-negotiations/)

I don't really understand what such a treaty can do practicably.  OK, maybe it would mean countries use somewhat less plastic.  That won't begin to solve the problem.  And some countries will ignore it of course.  Doing something about disposal would help, a lot of countries dump stuff into rivers.

I'd like to read more about what is being proposed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2024, 04:13:26 PM

Back in the day, I got sucked in big time to making "biodegradable" polymers, and then "compostable polymers".  There was a TON of excitement and work and money being spent on it all, and then .... it quietly went away.  Part of the story was landfills were getting full, which was a complete lie.  Another part was we needed to make plastics from something other than petroleum for some reason, OK.  Plants were built to make stuff, and very very little really ever hit the market.

I went to work one day and it all was shut down at our company, no explanation, no anything, just stop working on it.  I was spending money by the gobs, my director said don't worry about it, go as fast as you can.

I may have been partly responsible for shutting it down, I wrote some rather scathing memos that got into the wrong hands a time or three.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2024, 06:24:32 AM

Consequences and Effects of Global Warming -- What is the Impact? (https://www.nrdc.org/stories/are-effects-global-warming-really-bad)

But there's also good news. By aggressively reducing our global emissions (https://www.nrdc.org/experts/brendan-guy/major-new-report-shows-roadmap-paris-climate-goals) now, “we can avoid a lot of the severe consequences that climate change would otherwise bring,” says Limaye. While change must happen at the highest levels of government (https://www.nrdc.org/stories/supreme-courts-epa-ruling-explained) and business, your voice matters too: to your friends, to your families, and to your community leaders. Together, we can envision a safer, healthier, more equitable future—and build toward it. You can join with millions of people around the world fighting climate change (https://www.nrdc.org/stories/how-you-can-stop-global-warming) and even work to reduce fossil fuels in your own life (https://www.nrdc.org/stories/how-ditch-biggest-fossil-fuel-offenders-your-life).


We can envision .... have at it, envision all you want, none of this is "good news" and cannot be in the future.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2024, 07:49:56 AM

When you hear the name Amazon.com, a couple of things probably pop to mind. E-commerce, first and most obviously -- after all, Amazon is the world's biggest e-commerce company -- and then cloud computing. At $90 billion in annual revenue, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is bigger than Microsoft's Azure, and far larger than Google Cloud.

One thing you almost certainly do not associate with Amazon.com, though, is nuclear power production. But maybe you should.

Amazon goes nuclear
Cloud computing and nuclear power, after all, seem destined to go hand in hand. Newspaper headlines these past few months have announced news of Microsoft's tie-up with Constellation Energy, for example, to restart Three Mile Island and provide nuclear power to Microsoft's server farms. Alphabet has similarly teamed up with privately held Kairos Power to build nuclear power plants for its data centers.

This trend didn't go unnoticed at Amazon.

In November, PBS News reported that Amazon has become the "biggest investor" in an Energy Northwest project to build four small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) in Hanford, Wash., outputting 320 megawatts of power (so 80 MW each) for local use. Over time, the project could grow to 12 SMRs putting out nearly as much as one full-scale, traditional-size nuclear reactor -- 960 MW.


To help get the ball rolling, Amazon will ante up $334 million to fund a "multiyear feasibility study" before work begins.

Why Amazon is interested in nuclear power
Amazon's investment will give it "first access" to any power produced at the site, which it can use to run its Pacific Northwest data centers. Assured access to all this power is therefore one reason Amazon is interested in nuclear power. In theory, Amazon could even use all the power produced at the site. One large AWS data center located in Pennsylvania, for example, has been reliably estimated to consume 960 MW per year -- coincidentally the same estimated maximum output of the Washington site.

A second, long-term reason is that a successful SMR project in Washington State could turn Amazon into a major player in nuclear power generation nationally.

How? Well, it turns out that the Washington project, although owned and operated by Energy Northwest, would use SMRs manufactured by a private company called X-energy. In October, Amazon (alongside four other investors) invested $500 million in X-energy, aiming to eventually develop five gigawatts of SMRs across the U.S. by 2039.

Amazon's pet nuclear company
It's not 100% clear how much of the $500 million consortium-investment in X-energy comes from Amazon itself. However, in a press release, X-energy did call Amazon its "anchor" investor, suggesting that its share is the biggest in the funding round.

Depending on precisely how much cash Amazon anted up, its total investment in Energy Northwest and X-energy combined could approach $1 billion. Amazon's ownership stake in X-energy in particular might be 50% or more. We know this because, prior to the October investment, in 2023, X-energy's private market value was estimated at $1.05 billion. We also know that this market value had been falling, because in late 2022, the company had been valued at $2 billion.

While it's often hard to get a firm handle on valuations of privately owned companies, the downward trajectory in X-energy's value does suggest that Amazon's $500 million investment could make it majority owner of an up-and-coming nuclear stock. At the very least, Amazon is now almost certainly one of X-energy's largest shareholders.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2024, 03:34:52 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/8EqdO7d.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 16, 2024, 05:47:51 PM

that's Ho Ho Ho, no!
to youse heathen Texans

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2024, 10:11:45 AM

France on Saturday connected its most powerful nuclear power reactor to the national electricity grid in what leaders hailed as a landmark moment despite years of delays and technical setbacks.

The Flamanville 3 European Pressurized Reactor in Normandy started providing electricity to French homes at 11.48 am Saturday, the EDF power company's CEO Luc Remont said in a statement.

"Great moment for the country," President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement on X, calling it "one of the world's most powerful nuclear reactors."

The EPR, a new generation pressurised water reactor, is the fourth to be finished anywhere in the world.

"The last time a reactor started up in France was 25 years ago at Civaux 2," he said, referring to the Civaux power plant in southwestern France.

It is the most powerful reactor in the country at 1,600 MW. Ultimately, it should supply electricity to upwards of two million homes.

The start-up comes 12 years behind schedule after a plethora of technical setbacks which saw the cost of the project soar to an estimated 13.2 billion euros ($13.76 billion), four times the initial 3.3 billion euro estimate.

Nuclear power accounts for around three fifths of French energy output and the country boasts one of the globe's largest nuclear power programmes.

That is in stark contrast to neighbouring Germany, which exited nuclear power last year by shutting down the last three of its reactors.

Macron has decided to ramp up nuclear power to bolster French energy sustainability by ordering six EPR2 reactors and laying options for eight more, that could cost tens of billions of euros.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2024, 06:32:38 AM

Gonna get up to freezing by noon who-hoo,been a couple of days 🥳

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2024, 09:30:21 AM

high of 42 back home up north

66 and obviously warmer here in South Lake

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2024, 09:39:20 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/c7E7lYI.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2024, 10:32:30 AM

that ain't no Christmas weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 23, 2024, 10:42:09 AM

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/kilauea-volcano-eruption-hawaii-lava

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2024, 11:03:34 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 23, 2024, 10:32:30 AM

that ain't no Christmas weather

It is to me and all the visitors!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2024, 02:49:51 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2024, 11:03:34 AM

It is to me and all the visitors!

Actual current photo of badger's house:


(https://i.imgur.com/1GP2mrP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2024, 03:14:57 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 23, 2024, 10:32:30 AM

that ain't no Christmas weather

Ed Zachery

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2024, 09:15:22 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/P9duEdi.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 24, 2024, 09:23:42 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 24, 2024, 09:15:22 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/P9duEdi.jpeg)

Lots of access points on that map where Asian Carp could enter the Great Lakes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2024, 09:25:56 AM

mostly in Illinois?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 24, 2024, 09:33:36 AM

Nope. All the way around, starting in Wisconsin and up into Toledo. There have been some closures, most notably Eagle Marsh in Indiana and the Lockport electric barrier along the Illinois rover.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2024, 11:08:03 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/FTlGIfR.jpeg)

Nice clear day here. A bit chilly.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2024, 11:27:59 AM

thunderstorm here in the metro

(https://i.imgur.com/JYPSFpo.jpeg)

not Christmas weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 24, 2024, 11:49:08 AM

Cold (53) and foggy here... Should only get into the mid-60s and might have a little rain later. 

We're supposed to go to Long Beach for dinner and then to stroll around Naples for the Christmas lights... Hoping we avoid rain for that. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 24, 2024, 11:56:38 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 24, 2024, 11:49:08 AM

Cold (53) and foggy here... Should only get into the mid-60s and might have a little rain later.

We're supposed to go to Long Beach for dinner and then to stroll around Naples for the Christmas lights... Hoping we avoid rain for that.

This is my brother-in-law's compound (RIP) but my SIL still lives there. Broadway and Covina. We would walk to Naples and see the lights by boat. Very cool evening.


(https://i.imgur.com/Kcy01cD.jpeg)

(https://i.imgur.com/9SZmNNJ.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2024, 11:00:20 AM

This cool project is called "PETFusion 2.0" and comes to us via Creative3DP. It's a pretty ingenious device: you give it a dry, clean PET bottle, and it will slowly unravel it into a thin strip. This strip is then fed through a colorizer before it's turned into a colored filament you can use in your next 3D print.

As you can tell by the name, this isn't the first PETFusion to hit the market; Creative3DP claims that this improved version makes the process faster and easier. It also comes with some interesting new additions:

This upgraded version integrates multiple cutting-edge features, including a separate motorized bottle cutter, dual hotends for simultaneous extrusion, a filament welder for creating seamless spools, and an improved ink-based filament colorizer. By using a single motor to power both the filament pulling and the filament cutter, PETFusion 2.0 achieves exceptional efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and compactness, making it the ultimate PET bottle recycling solution.


https://www.xda-developers.com/machine-pet-bottles-3d-printer-filament/ (https://www.xda-developers.com/machine-pet-bottles-3d-printer-filament/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 29, 2024, 11:03:42 AM

PET, for those wondering, is the plastic used to make soda bottles (and polyester clothing items).  Milk jugs are different (PE).  Milk jug caps are different (PP).  Those white foam packing stuff is different (PS).  Nylon is different.  Rayon is different.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2024, 08:32:27 AM

The worst death toll in the United States for a winter storm occurred in The Great Blizzard of 1888 in the Northeast. Over March 11–14, the blizzard dropped between 40–50 inches of snow in parts of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. It blocked roads and wiped out telephone, telegraph, and rail service for days. It was responsible for over 400 deaths (200 in New York alone) and sank 200 ships. New York and Boston created the first underground subway system partly in response to the massive 1888 storm and the gridlock it created.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2024, 09:08:00 AM

Gonna get cold.

Widespread cold blast to hit US just after new year begins | Fox Weather (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/rush-arctic-air-plunge-temperatures-first-weeks-2025)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on December 31, 2024, 09:20:24 AM

We're leaving for Orlando Jan 8 to prepare for baseball the next week, so we're going the right direction.  And yes, I've been working pretty hard over the year, but the weather here often is not conducive to running outside.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2024, 11:32:55 AM

This seems to happen a lot.

Puerto Rico's power grid collapses, leaving island in the dark (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/puerto-rico-s-power-grid-collapses-leaving-island-in-the-dark/ar-AA1wLrUw?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=cb8649e80708411cbde104be6653bb38&ei=14)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2024, 11:56:28 AM

like Texas

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2024, 12:40:18 PM

Gonna be a bit chilly out on the course today...

Oh well. Fore!

(https://i.imgur.com/jnuZFUy.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2024, 05:11:46 PM

shorts

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 03, 2025, 12:18:54 PM

So crazy.

Michigan plans to clear 400+ acres of state forest near Gaylord for solar farm - mlive.com (https://www.mlive.com/environment/2025/01/michigan-plans-to-clear-400-acres-of-state-forest-near-gaylord-for-solar-farm.html)

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1875164197627035675 (https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1875164197627035675)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 03, 2025, 12:36:41 PM

Chilly month ahead.

(https://i.imgur.com/hWHyOsp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 03, 2025, 06:24:00 PM

Fact brief - Are we heading into an 'ice age'? (https://skepticalscience.com/fact-brief-iceage.html?utm_source=allsides&utm_id=112)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 03, 2025, 06:58:16 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 24, 2024, 11:27:59 AM

thunderstorm here in the metro

not Christmas weather

C-C-C-hristmas weather here light snow on/off all day 26° ❄️

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2025, 07:28:36 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 03, 2025, 12:18:54 PM

So crazy.

Michigan plans to clear 400+ acres of state forest near Gaylord for solar farm - mlive.com (https://www.mlive.com/environment/2025/01/michigan-plans-to-clear-400-acres-of-state-forest-near-gaylord-for-solar-farm.html)

the folks that profit from this should be prosecuted

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2025, 07:35:04 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 03, 2025, 06:58:16 PM

C-C-C-hristmas weather here light snow on/off all day 26° ❄️

the post-Christmas cooler weather is on the way
overnight low of zero Sunday
sending it east

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2025, 09:24:03 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/lkbypHq.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 09:27:49 AM

I'll be in North Port starting 14 January, hoping for no rain.  Chilly(ish) weather is OK, but rain is not.  We have "events" every night.

We're headed to Orlando first so I can keep running more.  They have a decent gym where we're headed.  I don't much care for Orlando, but we don't do the parks, we just hang out.  There is a Portillo's across the street.  

After camp we're headed to Hilton Head for a week.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2025, 09:32:13 AM

Maybe there could be a time where we could meet for lunch.

Culinary Excellence and Jazz Vibes | The Grill At 1951 (https://thegrillat1951.com/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2025, 09:34:49 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 09:27:49 AM

I'll be in North Port starting 14 January, hoping for no rain.  Chilly(ish) weather is OK, but rain is not.  We have "events" every night.

We're headed to Orlando first so I can keep running more.  They have a decent gym where we're headed.  I don't much care for Orlando, but we don't do the parks, we just hang out.  There is a Portillo's across the street. 

After camp we're headed to Hilton Head for a week. 

(https://i.imgur.com/T0Nxfcs.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 09:50:33 AM

We can stand the occasional "sprinkle" but last year we had some heavy rain.  The grounds crew wouldn't let us play on the infield dirt, so we'd have a pitcher and 3 outfielders and the umpires would call whether a ground ball was an out of a hit.  We didn't run the bases.  And we had to wear turf shoes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2025, 11:40:40 AM

Sarasota forecast is better than down here at that time. Northport is kinda in-between.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 11:44:18 AM

I pitched one game with three out fields and no one else in the field or on base.  It was very weird.  Someone would hit a grounder "in the hole" between SS and 3B and the umps would call him out.  There wasn't a player in camp who could make that play and that throw in time.  I was all for it.  The umps kinda like me.  They like seeing a white haired guy out there I think.  We have mostly the same umps every year.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 04, 2025, 11:52:47 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 03, 2025, 07:35:04 PM

the post-Christmas cooler weather is on the way
overnight low of zero Sunday
sending it east

Fackin' bug eater stay in TEXAS

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 04, 2025, 12:39:24 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 03, 2025, 07:28:36 PM

the folks that profit from this should be prosecuted

exactly just how much sun can they capture and store in Michigan? i can see the south west,and even Germany has foresaken the green movement until it's more practical. A few yrs back they had horrible hail storms that took the panels out,oopsie Home Depot,Lowe's and Ace doesn't seem to carry them.One wonders if they get ice/snow/hail in Meeecheegan. Leave the trees alone you dipsticks

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 12:41:22 PM

If it's private land, I can't think of a law being broken no matter how stupid it appears.

I'd bet there is a juicy government subsidy involved.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2025, 12:50:27 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 12:41:22 PM

If it's private land, I can't think of a law being broken no matter how stupid it appears.

I'd bet there is a juicy government subsidy involved.

It isn't. The article says it's state forest land.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 12:51:11 PM

Then it's just dumb.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2025, 01:14:10 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 12:51:11 PM

Then it's just dumb.

(https://i.imgur.com/ihVb8E0.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 04, 2025, 01:30:15 PM

Honestly if we could figure out a good way to sequester carbon in dead trees and not allow them to decompose and release it...

...a much better strategy than clearing forests for solar farms would be to clear forests, sequester the trees, and plant new forests in the same place. 

Most of the carbon capture technologies we're testing are expensive and energy-intensive. Might as well let nature do it... Naturally.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 01:33:32 PM

One can with some effort (expense, energy) dessicate dead trees and bury them away from water and oxygen.  They'd turn into "coal" eventually, and then we could burn that ... oh, wait.  Planting new trees does seem like an obvious way to sequester CO2 IFF one can deal with old trees.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2025, 03:05:36 PM

Decarbonization of transport is underway. Here are future fuel predictions. | Knowable Magazine (https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/technology/2024/decarbonization-of-transportation-predictions)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 04, 2025, 06:40:54 PM

Houston will see its first freeze of the year tomorrow morning

It wii dip below 32 for about 3 hours

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2025, 07:00:10 PM

warming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 05, 2025, 09:42:40 AM

The US has finalized its first climate-focused energy deal featuring nuclear power. To this extent, $1 billion in combined contracts to ensure clean energy delivery for a decade have been inked.

As part of the deal, Constellation secured a 10-year, $840 million contract, the largest in US General Services Administration (GSA) history, to deliver over 1 million megawatt-hours annually starting in 2025.

The contract will result in the Baltimore-based firm supplying power to over 13 federal agencies. Additionally, Constellation will implement energy-saving and conservation measures at five GSA-owned facilities in the National Capital Region.


“This historic procurement locks in a cost-competitive, reliable supply of nuclear energy over a 10-year period, accelerating progress toward a carbon-free energy future while protecting taxpayers against future price hikes,” said Robin Carnahan, GSA Administrator, in a statement.

In December, Constellation announced that its pilot program in Washington, DC, is set to offer 100 percent nuclear energy for homes, with plans to expand in 2025.

Clean power expansion
Constellation, the largest nuclear energy operator in the US, reports a 90 percent carbon-free annual output. Its nuclear facilities achieved a 94.4 percent capacity factor in 2023.

Alongside hydro, wind, and solar assets, the company’s operations can generate enough energy to power 16 million homes, supplying approximately 10 percent of the nation’s clean energy.

Historically excluded from many corporate and government sustainable energy initiatives, nuclear energy is now gaining recognition. Under a new agreement, the US government, alongside major corporations like Microsoft, is supporting investment in nuclear energy, enabling Constellation to relicense and extend the life of critical assets.



Combined with the previously announced Crane restart, Constellation and its partners aim to add approximately 1,100 MW of continuous clean energy by 2028, enough to power over one million homes.

Starting April 25, new GSA contracts will supply over 10 million megawatt-hours of electricity over 10 years, enough to power more than 1 million homes annually.

The energy will serve 80 federal facilities within the PJM Interconnection, a regional grid operator covering over 65 million people. Recipients include the US Department of Transportation, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Army Corps of Engineers.

Energy efficiency boost
Constellation has also secured a $172 million Energy Savings Performance Contract to enhance energy efficiency at five GSA-owned facilities in the National Capital Region.


The upgrades will include LED lighting, weatherization, window inserts and replacements, and modernized HVAC and building control systems. These measures aim to improve energy efficiency, reduce emissions, and lower energy costs at the Elijah Barrett Prettyman US Courthouse, the William B. Bryant Annex, the Orville Wright Federal Building, the Wilbur Wright Federal Building in Washington, DC, and the Harvey W. Wiley Federal Building in College Park, MD.

In Washington, DC, four buildings will transition from steam power to electricity through the installation of electric boilers and heat pumps, marking a significant step in energy conservation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 06, 2025, 06:10:29 PM

The U-S Nuclear Regulatory Commission is extending the operating license of the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant for an additional 20 years.

Xcel Energy regional president Ryan Long says the federal extension is important…

“Our current license actually did expire in 2030. And so we were looking at a 2030 closure of the plant without this license extension. And so that’s why we started the process several years ago with the N-R-C to move down the path of extending the license another 20 years.”

Long says the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission already approved extending operations at Monticello through 2040 and they will ask the P-U-C for another ten years…

“And as we transition away from coal in the Upper Midwest and continue to invest in renewables, nuclear is really going to be the new backbone of our system. So it’s a really important federal approval and we’re looking forward to going to talk to our state regulatory bodies about getting state approval to run it out to 2050.”

There had been recent speculation regarding whether or not the region’s power grid could be sustained with the continued phase-out of the Sherco coal-burning power plant in Becker if the Monticello Nuclear Power Generating facility’s operations were also shut down.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 06, 2025, 06:22:43 PM

Haven't seen 32° in 2-3 days and prolly won't see it until after next week end

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 07, 2025, 08:25:48 AM

Friday forecast for ATL:

Cloudy with a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain likely. Accumulations possible. Cold with highs in the mid 30s.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 07, 2025, 08:56:20 AM

get yourself some

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2025, 10:03:14 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Gt6gYjV.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2025, 10:10:10 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/OWx3qG4.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2025, 10:21:13 AM

This is about the only time of year where I prefer the weather in Southern California.  Maybe I'll start wintering there.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2025, 10:34:18 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2025, 10:21:13 AM

This is about the only time of year where I prefer the weather in Southern California.  Maybe I'll start wintering there.

Honestly, I think you don't realize that California's got everything for you. Winter in Orange County... Summer in Death Valley. Perfect for you!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2025, 10:38:30 AM

Yeah... no... thanks!

You're welcome for my support...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2025, 12:04:49 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2025, 10:34:18 AM

Honestly, I think you don't realize that California's got everything for you. Winter in Orange County... Summer in Death Valley. Perfect for you!

I have family close to dealing with this.

(https://i.imgur.com/ORTGsJE.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2025, 12:07:33 PM

Yeah it's a mess.

Don't worry, I'm not moving there.  You're Welcome For My Support.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2025, 12:20:39 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2025, 12:04:49 PM

I have family close to dealing with this.

(https://i.imgur.com/ORTGsJE.jpeg)

In all seriousness, hope your family is safe and evacuated with their most important possessions just in case. 

That said, every place has issues. You've got hurricanes, gators, and Florida Man. The Midwest has tornadoes and blizzards. California has wildfires, mudslides, and earthquakes. Hell, Hawaii is pretty much paradise but Lahaina burned to the ground. 

The people in/near Pacific Palisades pay a LOT of money to live in/near beautiful wilderness in the hills. The risk that carries is occasionally those hills catch fire. The worst issue is those who were caught unawares and lost their lives, but for everyone else that evacuated safely, it's a horrible thing to ever have to deal with but it's the risk inherent to living there. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2025, 12:24:04 PM

I also don't like that the ground could start shaking at any time, without warning.

With hurricanes, we get a week or more to think about a decision.

Yes, there's 3 months in the dead of summer where it's really crazy hot and humid. We have AC and a pool (and a boat) for that.

No "Florida Man" in these parts. Nobody is from Florida around here.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on January 08, 2025, 12:28:23 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2025, 12:24:04 PM

I also don't like that the ground could start shaking at any time, without warning.

With hurricanes, we get a week or more to think about a decision.

Yes, there's 3 months in the dead of summer where it's really crazy hot and humid. We have AC and a pool (and a boat) for that.

No "Florida Man" in these parts. Nobody is from Florida around here.

3 months ?  For us, it starts in May ( occasionally earlier) and lasts until late Sept ( and occasionally Oct). 
im talking 95 degree heat and high humidity. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2025, 12:30:38 PM

I just hope the winds die down so they can start getting these under control. Wind has been WHIPPING the last 30 hours or so. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2025, 12:30:47 PM

I like the heat.  It used to keep the yankees away.  Now, not so much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2025, 01:06:34 PM

Quote from: Gigem on January 08, 2025, 12:28:23 PM

3 months ?  For us, it starts in May ( occasionally earlier) and lasts until late Sept ( and occasionally Oct).
im talking 95 degree heat and high humidity.

I'm fine with May/June, and September/October. Temps are in the 80's. It's July and August that get really brutal.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2025, 01:09:30 PM

I was suprized how oppresively hot Cincinnati was in July and August.  It was bad, worse than here usually, but the heat here lasts longer, it's just not as oppresive in my view.

We also now have a MAJOR MASSIVE WINTER STORM WARNING here for what could be 2" of SNOW!!!!  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 09, 2025, 06:51:57 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/9XfpkPb.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2025, 07:58:21 AM

US firm to bury nuclear reactors 1-mile underground to power data centers

By utilizing the natural geological properties at that depth, this method eliminates the need for massive concrete structures used in aboveground reactors.

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/bury-nuclear-reactor-1-mile-underground (https://interestingengineering.com/energy/bury-nuclear-reactor-1-mile-underground)

perhaps avoiding a right of way and permitting process??

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2025, 06:24:30 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/climate/2024-hottest-year-record/index.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2025, 04:55:17 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/TMmysVd.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2025, 05:43:05 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/LAVP9UN.jpeg)

Home but we’re in Florida.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 10, 2025, 06:20:58 PM

What would the world be like if there were a mass extinction of all unicellular organisms? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on January 10, 2025, 07:17:06 PM

Trail cam photo from a friend of mine.  This is central WI, about 2 hours N-NW of Milwaukee.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 13, 2025, 06:15:34 PM

Trail's still there where's your friend?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2025, 06:18:04 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on January 10, 2025, 06:20:58 PM

What would the world be like if there were a mass extinction of all unicellular organisms?

Couple of months to a couple of years from complete societal collapse. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2025, 06:20:51 PM

Possibly faster depending on how limited our ability as humans to digest food would be impacted by the die-off of our gut biomes. Could be extinction of the human species due to malnourishment and starvation in a matter of weeks. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2025, 11:18:50 AM

4 degrees back home

58 in Monterey and the sun just came up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 15, 2025, 06:25:15 PM

7° last nite a balmy 16° now, possibly below zero by tuesday 🤪

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 15, 2025, 06:28:14 PM

68 and sunny...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 16, 2025, 08:58:35 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2025, 06:20:51 PM

Possibly faster depending on how limited our ability as humans to digest food would be impacted by the die-off of our gut biomes. Could be extinction of the human species due to malnourishment and starvation in a matter of weeks.

How do you suppose they would replicate the gut biome if they were to clone a human? 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 16, 2025, 11:34:07 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on January 16, 2025, 08:58:35 AM

How do you suppose they would replicate the gut biome if they were to clone a human?

It's a good question. There are many ways to clone a human. If you're implanting the cloned embryo in another human, I'm pretty sure the gut biome will develop automatically via the surrogate mother transferring nutrients to the baby. 

I would assume if we developed some "artificial womb" instead, the gut biome would develop based upon whatever is fed to the developing baby via the umbilical cord. You could include probiotics in the feeding.

It's not all that different from some of the issues we have today with overprescription of antibiotics. One of the side effects of taking antibiotics is that it plays hell with your gut biome. However, the gut biome will naturally (& possibly with the help of probiotics) recover over time via mere exposure to the environment and ingesting food. 

Bear in mind--I'm an electrical engineer, not a biologist. So it's possible everything I just wrote is a woefully inadequate and partially or fully inaccurate description of how any of this works. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 16, 2025, 11:39:39 AM

I hope it is woefully inaccurate,getting in to creepy with this stuff. Going into week 3 of 20° temps one day made it to 34°

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 16, 2025, 11:46:30 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2025, 06:20:51 PM

Possibly faster depending on how limited our ability as humans to digest food would be impacted by the die-off of our gut biomes. Could be extinction of the human species due to malnourishment and starvation in a matter of weeks.

Pretty sure all living things, not just us, would go to (biological) hell pretty quickly.  A disappearance/death of unicellular organisms would have apocalyptic affects on the food chain, all the way up.  

I'm no environmental scientist, but I feel like we covered this enough during the many science classes I took in school.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 16, 2025, 01:57:21 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PORbrxg-2GQ

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 16, 2025, 02:04:36 PM

Indeed, Texas is super risky, don't move here.

Thank You For Your Support

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 16, 2025, 03:07:29 PM

A massive tectonic plate shift rocked a considerable portion of the state and created the Hill Country rather quickly.  You don't wanna be in TX next time that happens.  It's definitely not safe.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 17, 2025, 09:28:20 AM

I’m not a biologist. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 17, 2025, 10:04:39 AM

Oh, and the most important thing if we didn't have unicellular organisms?

We'd have no more beer! :'(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 17, 2025, 10:05:51 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 17, 2025, 09:28:20 AM

I’m not a biologist.

Texas doesn't need biologists so move there anyway

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 17, 2025, 10:28:20 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 17, 2025, 10:04:39 AM

Oh, and the most important thing if we didn't have unicellular organisms?

We'd have no more beer! :'(

(https://i.imgflip.com/3vrdaw.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on January 18, 2025, 08:09:48 AM

Snow predicted for much of Tx next week. 1-3”. And 20’s. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2025, 08:56:46 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/xRv1voP.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2025, 10:26:11 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/4jpvcLf.png)

just gotta hunker down Sunday and Monday
then it's pretty nice

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2025, 10:38:16 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 18, 2025, 10:26:11 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/4jpvcLf.png)

just gotta hunker down Sunday and Monday
then it's pretty nice

Yikes, I wouldn't describe a single one of those days as "nice."

I'll take bf's weather instead, thank you very much.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2025, 10:57:14 AM

I can't afford BF's weather .
flying home this afternoon with a scorched credit card and a light wallet

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2025, 05:50:07 PM

Haven't had time to post about weather today. I was on the golf course enjoying the sunshine.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2025, 09:13:07 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2025, 05:50:07 PM

Haven't had time to post about weather today. I was on the golf course enjoying the sunshine.

And today?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2025, 09:56:07 AM

today it's cold as hell

here in NW Iowa

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2025, 10:03:48 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2025, 09:13:07 AM

And today?

Today I'll be setting up that freezer and doing some of the final work on organizing the garage, all while a nice big pot of pho is simmering. 

Wife works tomorrow while I'll be off for the holiday, so I'll be back to the golf course tomorrow. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2025, 12:18:54 PM

Supposed to be a high of 80 on Thursday and then 59 on Saturday lol... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2025, 12:20:39 PM

We're a little rocky here too. It's been a cold January so far, with more rain than usual.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2025, 12:22:23 PM

high of zero tomorrow, high of 36 on Wednesday
I'd rather not go out tomorrow, but annual check at the Doc's office

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2025, 12:27:53 PM

Tomorrow's a holiday, ain't goin' nowhere.  Think I'm gonna make some more chili.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2025, 12:37:24 PM

damn, was just lookin for a clove of garlic.  was gonna make chili
nuttin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2025, 12:39:22 PM

You can use garlic powder.  All of the competition chili cooks use powders rather than natural whole ingredients so they can more precisely control the measurements.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2025, 01:13:42 PM

from what I read 10 years ago or so when I came up with my recipe, they used fresh garlic but chopped it fine enuff that it would dissolve in 3 hours and leave not chunks

things may have changed
I could try it, I have plenty of powder 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2025, 06:16:45 PM

Every chili comp cook I've talked to uses all powders, and no fresh anything.  Onion powder, garlic powder, and their own special blends of chili powders made directly from a variety of dried chile peppers (no Gebhardt's for those dudes).

The Wick Fowler's 2-alarm chili kit is all powder and actually makes a decent pot of red.  It was my standard in college when I was poor and didn't know what I was doing.  You know, before I became a stereotypical Texan chili snob.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2025, 07:31:54 PM

well, couldn't find an onion, so tomorrow night

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 20, 2025, 12:37:01 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 19, 2025, 07:31:54 PM

well, couldn't find an onion, so tomorrow night

(https://i.imgur.com/tDc8ylb.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 20, 2025, 12:47:15 AM

Pot of red will start tomorrow around noon.  Purchased today-- 3 lbs of cubed chuck, 1 lb cubed pork loin, 1.5 lbs of chorizo.  Whole dried guajillo, ancho, New Mexican red, and chiles de arbol, 2 fresh serranos, plus garlic and onion.  All spices already on-hand ground comino, Mexican oregano, cayenne, and paprika.

Bring on Texas Snowpocalypse 2025!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 20, 2025, 07:30:28 AM

Going in the pot now roasted some dried poblanos(anchos) over the stove top getting rid of stems/seeds just like the stoners with the jazz cabbage do,made my own chili powder crushing it up with cumin/paprika/coriander/oregano. You should smell it - wondrous. Didn't use garlic powder as I'm slicing fresh up going in the pan with gr. beef and onion.

I'm not using any bell peppers replacing with thinly sliced celery - came out great last time some famous long gone Hollywood joint did that and the old guard use to line up around the block for it.And of course some pinto/kidney/black beans. ;D Any fresh onion,celery,garlic and or bell pepper I half - some goes into the saute' pan - some with the beef and the rest goes into the crock pot giving two diverging tastes of the same veggies.Sort of like layering

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 20, 2025, 08:44:38 AM

I’m recovering in Hilton Head under a winter storm warning watch maybe snow ahead or not.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2025, 09:02:42 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 20, 2025, 12:37:01 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/tDc8ylb.png)

Wick isn't famous this far north
it says, "Season to taste" - I assume that means add garlic and onion

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2025, 09:04:23 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 20, 2025, 07:30:28 AM

Going in the pot now roasted some dried poblanos(anchos) over the stove top getting rid of stems/seeds just like the stoners with the jazz cabbage do,made my own chili powder crushing it up with cumin/paprika/coriander/oregano. You should smell it - wondrous. Didn't use garlic powder as I'm slicing fresh up going in the pan with gr. beef and onion.

I'm not using any bell peppers replacing with thinly sliced celery - came out great last time some famous long gone Hollywood joint did that and the old guard use to line up around the block for it.And of course some pinto/kidney/black beans. ;D Any fresh onion,celery,garlic and or bell pepper I half - some goes into the saute' pan - some with the beef and the rest goes into the crock pot giving two diverging tastes of the same veggies.Sort of like layering

Déjà vu
feels like I read this post yesterday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 20, 2025, 09:09:43 AM

ya but to important to leave as the last post on the previous page ;D  - that was a lot of work - and appears to be coming to fruition accordingly. Going to let it on low until about 1:00 and then top with diced red onion

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 20, 2025, 09:10:31 AM

Someone posted about Wendy's chili being canned now, in the grocery store somewheres.
The past few weeks, I've looked for it w/o beans, and it's been sold out.  Every time, the sans-beans version was empty.
It's also $5.00.  Which is nuts.

So as a low-beans or no-beans fella, I tried several other canned, no-beans chilis.....they all looked like gross dog food.  The cheap ones, the more expensive ones - all of them.  Brown mush, slowly coming out of the can.

I know, I know, make your own chili.  And I do sometimes.  But this is just me seeing what's out there.

Anyways, I go grocery shopping yesterday, and there's some cans of Wendy's chili with no beans.  Sweet!  I feel stupid buying a small can of chili for $5.00, but whatever.  I'm experimenting here.  

It is by far the best of the no-beans chilis.  I'm not going to sit here and tell you it's great.  But it was actual chili and full of meat and other flavorings and what-not.  Totally an upgrade from anything else in the store.

SO......IF you're wanting a no-beans chili and you're not making it yourself, it's worth a buy.  

My peak chili-making days were getting up early to tailgate in Gainesville and it was more of a stew, as I'd put in corn, green beans, and scalloped potatoes.  When you have all that in with a lot of meat, a few beans don't hurt you.  :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 20, 2025, 10:34:30 AM

Sounds like a fine stew, OAM.  It's not chili but it doesn't need to be.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 20, 2025, 10:36:09 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 20, 2025, 09:02:42 AM

Wick isn't famous this far north
it says, "Season to taste" - I assume that means add garlic and onion

Sigh.  Obtuse as always.  Fine, ignore my shortcuts to tasty chili.  Wait until you have an onion.  See if I care.

I was smart enough to grab several onions at the store over the weekend.  I like some chopped fresh on top, along with some grated Wisconsin sharp chedder.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2025, 01:16:56 PM

stoopid cold out but I saw the Doc for my annual check in
Doc says I'll live a long time

went to the grocery for onions, garlic, Frito's scoops, and Budweiser!

stocked for chili

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2025, 01:17:54 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 20, 2025, 09:10:31 AM

So as a low-beans or no-beans fella, I tried several other canned, no-beans chilis.....they all looked like gross dog food.  The cheap ones, the more expensive ones - all of them.  Brown mush, slowly coming out of the can.

and smelled much worse

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 20, 2025, 04:48:12 PM

Absolutely perfect weather for golf today. Sunny and in the 60s for most of the round, nearing 70 by the end. 

Wind kicked up something fierce as we were having our post-round beer, but nothing more than a bit of isolated gusts on the last 3-4 holes or so. 

Year-round golf weather is a wonderful thing :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 20, 2025, 05:23:41 PM

:91:
:96:
:c002:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on January 21, 2025, 08:18:05 AM

High 20’s, snow on the ground…barely. First 30 years of my life it snowed here maybe twice. In 2004, we got 8” on Christmas Eve.  Since 2004, it’s snowed no less than 5-6 times. Varying amounts. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 21, 2025, 08:31:00 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 20, 2025, 05:23:41 PM

:91:
:96:
:c002:

How's the chili?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 21, 2025, 08:48:24 AM

Blizzard warning in SE Texas and western Louisiana. That's... unusual.

(https://i.imgur.com/EatyuMc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 21, 2025, 09:12:21 AM

Quote from: Gigem on January 21, 2025, 08:18:05 AM

High 20’s, snow on the ground…barely. First 30 years of my life it snowed here maybe twice. In 2004, we got 8” on Christmas Eve.  Since 2004, it’s snowed no less than 5-6 times. Varying amounts.

Yeah, growing up it might have snowed twice in Austin in the first 30 years I lived here.  Now it's almost annual.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2025, 09:20:19 AM

Not normal.

(https://i.imgur.com/AIf6mSg.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2025, 09:32:02 AM

Heh.

Florida Gov. DeSantis Declares State Of Emergency: State Braces For Rare Winter Storm (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/florida-gov-desantis-declares-state-of-emergency-state-braces-for-rare-winter-storm/ar-AA1xymhl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=d20403f9d00d47a9a519544fd0224506&ei=21)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 21, 2025, 10:11:04 AM

Chili wasn't anything to brag about, but it did the trick on a bone chillin night

just normal mid-January weather here 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 21, 2025, 10:21:53 AM

I made my chili on Sunday but we saved it for today, since today is the actual snow day.  But I did sample it yesterday after a day of sitting and melding, and I gotta say, might be the best batch I've ever made.  I don't always used the cubed pork loin in addition to the cubed chuck, but I did this time and it was pretty great.  I also love the mix of peppers I used, a little less ancho which tends to give it a raisiny flavor, and a bit more guajillo which is really balanced.  Not much heat in guajillo though so I added a diced fresh jalapeno and a diced fresh serrano, and the end result it great.

I'm smart and always have garlic and onions on hand, so no powders needed. ;)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Temp430 on January 21, 2025, 10:40:02 AM

First ever blizzard warning for the Gulf of America coast of Louisiana.  Where's the Global Warming now?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 21, 2025, 10:55:35 AM

Quote from: utee94 on January 21, 2025, 10:21:53 AM

I made my chili on Sunday but we saved it for today, since today is the actual snow day.  But I did sample it yesterday after a day of sitting and melding, and I gotta say, might be the best batch I've ever made.  I don't always used the cubed pork loin in addition to the cubed chuck, but I did this time and it was pretty great.  I also love the mix of peppers I used, a little less ancho which tends to give it a raisiny flavor, and a bit more guajillo which is really balanced.  Not much heat in guajillo though so I added a diced fresh jalapeno and a diced fresh serrano, and the end result it great.

I'm smart and always have garlic and onions on hand, so no powders needed. ;)

I've been told the pork fat/grease helps put the heat of the peppers on the tongue better
I usually add some type of pork - a small amount
not this time

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 21, 2025, 10:59:43 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 21, 2025, 10:55:35 AM

I've been told the pork fat/grease helps put the heat of the peppers on the tongue better
I usually add some type of pork - a small amount
not this time

Not much fat on pork loin, but I also always brown the cubed meat in pork chorizo grease, and/or bacon grease, so that might help out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 21, 2025, 11:05:26 AM

oh, that helps!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2025, 09:59:31 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/qa7sEzn.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: ELA on January 22, 2025, 10:02:31 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 22, 2025, 09:59:31 AM

[img width=500 height=390.996]https://i.imgur.com/qa7sEzn.png[/img]

Outdated map

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2025, 10:10:00 AM

Hilton Head

(https://i.imgur.com/H1qWhzZ.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2025, 10:10:24 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Yscuqet.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2025, 10:10:56 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/CCck2QW.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2025, 10:11:48 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/3nqRcKG.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2025, 10:23:29 AM

gotta luv global warming

I little snow here in Waterloo, IA this morning - 20 degrees now, hopefully warming to 32

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2025, 10:23:37 AM

6-12" in the panhandle.

(https://i.imgur.com/cDDhhO3.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 22, 2025, 10:27:25 AM

Gonna be 80 degrees here today. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2025, 10:44:12 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/8BNDEGp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2025, 09:13:52 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/dab1Yhj.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 23, 2025, 01:39:53 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 22, 2025, 10:23:29 AM

gotta luv global warming

(https://i.imgur.com/H0LBEid.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 24, 2025, 12:26:05 PM

It can snow in Galveston too


(https://i.imgur.com/OCt6rcu.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2025, 12:40:32 PM

flurries

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on January 24, 2025, 12:44:36 PM

Hey if you can build a snowman its snow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2025, 12:46:10 PM

I'll agree

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2025, 08:37:29 AM

Woke up to 36 degrees this morning.

Found this picture of Pensacola too. Glad we are not there.

(https://i.imgur.com/JY6zkuy.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2025, 08:54:21 AM

help is on the way!

(https://i.imgur.com/CWLpXQr.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2025, 08:58:25 AM

balmy weather here
washed the car yesterday!

(https://i.imgur.com/yiiGNCd.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2025, 09:04:25 AM

47 now, on the way to 69.

I'm hoping we are done with the cold snaps.

(https://i.imgur.com/kesAIu0.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2025, 09:06:12 AM

me too but we're not

February is coming

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2025, 10:13:30 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2025, 09:06:12 AM

February is coming

I know what that means.


(https://i.imgur.com/wxrFDWD.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2025, 10:38:09 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2025, 09:04:25 AM

47 now, on the way to 69.

I'm hoping we are done with the cold snaps.

Ours is just hitting starting today...

(https://i.imgur.com/v4bfZ7t.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2025, 11:50:30 AM

who the heck has spring break in Feb?  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2025, 12:19:18 PM

Starts late February and through March.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2025, 12:29:25 PM

Weird.  That's not spring.  Around here it runs mid March and into April.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2025, 12:34:09 PM

The big numbers are in March. You can tell by looking at airfare. It doubles/triples.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2025, 01:36:38 PM

Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2025, 12:29:25 PM

Weird.  That's not spring.  Around here it runs mid March and into April.

Texas/Florida in late Feb -> mid March feels like winter to Texans and Floridians, but feels like summer to Midwesterners heading south for Spring Break. 

Heck, I can say that going to the Outback Bowl in after the 1999 season and the Rose Bowl after the 2000 season felt like summer to me. The latter was when I moved to CA, and I recall the weather after graduating in December before getting in the car to drive to CA didn't get above 10 deg F the entire week. 

We were walking around the 65 degree SoCal weather in shorts wondering why all the weirdos who lived here needed outdoor heaters on the patios of restaurants... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2025, 01:44:29 PM

folks in the San Fran area had sweaters on their dogs when it was 65 degrees

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2025, 01:47:26 PM

The gulf is 57 degrees right now. People will be in it in a month or so.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2025, 01:56:01 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2025, 01:44:29 PM

folks in the San Fran area had sweaters on their dogs when it was 65 degrees

My wife gets worried that our dog (the 90+ lb golden retriever) will get cold when we bathe him in the "cold" outdoors with the hose. With outdoor temps of 65 degrees and hose temp probably 70 degrees. 

The same woman who shows me instagram posts of golden retrievers frolicking in the snow, jumping in Lake Michigan which is always freakin' cold, etc...

Somehow she thinks all these other goldens are fine, but our dog will be a wimp about the cold :57:

(But no, we never put a damn sweater on him!)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2025, 02:27:27 PM

my daughter's dog here only get's a sweater on Husker gameday

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 28, 2025, 05:13:23 PM

When the rain hit overnight on Saturday night and then again on Sunday night, it appears we picked up some snow. 

The peak that's occluded by clouds is about 4500 ft, so I'm guessing we might have gotten the snow down to about 2500 ft elevation. 

I'm hoping to climb that peak with my son before the weather gets too hot, so hopefully nothing on that trail gets screwy as it all melts. 

(https://i.imgur.com/oXftdD1.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2025, 05:17:11 PM

I didn't realize it had rained in the area.  Did it provide any relief to the fires?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 28, 2025, 05:19:50 PM

Quote from: utee94 on January 28, 2025, 05:17:11 PM

I didn't realize it had rained in the area.  Did it provide any relief to the fires?

Honestly I'm not all that sure... Judging by the fact that people aren't so much freaking out about the fires and it's not dominating the news, I suspect it helped somewhat. 

It's one of those things with the fires being as far away from me as they are, I haven't paid close attention.

I was paying VERY close attention when the hillside pictured there was on fire though, since that picture was taken from the street in front of my driveway lol! :57:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2025, 05:29:18 PM

Yeah I remember when you were going through that.

We have some similar dangers here in Central Texas.  Super dry, never enough rain.  Hill/canyon topography that leads to channeling the fires.  But we don't have the Santa Anas which is a significant part of what drove the intensity and the spread.

Even so, back in 2011, a town near Austin named Bastrop had a huge fire that burned 32,000 acres, including almost entirely destroying one of my favorite state parks. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on January 29, 2025, 09:48:14 AM

Still see singed trees and fire damage when I drive through that area (bastrop).  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 29, 2025, 09:49:56 AM

Quote from: Gigem on January 29, 2025, 09:48:14 AM

Still see singed trees and fire damage when I drive through that area (bastrop). 

Yeah, we don't even go to Bastrop SP anymore.  It'll take 100 years for the growth to come back to those pine forests.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2025, 12:04:35 PM

Geologic Hydrogen | U.S. Geological Survey (https://www.usgs.gov/centers/central-energy-resources-science-center/science/geologic-hydrogen)

This could get interesting indeed.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 29, 2025, 12:33:54 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2025, 12:04:35 PM

Geologic Hydrogen | U.S. Geological Survey (https://www.usgs.gov/centers/central-energy-resources-science-center/science/geologic-hydrogen)

This could get interesting indeed.

Definitely interesting. Worth keeping an eye on to see if it develops. 

IMHO I put it in the same camp right now as a lot of promising innovations/technologies that are lab-demonstrated but we don't know if or when they will be economically able to scale. Again, I come from the data storage world where it's been predicted that SSDs based on NAND flash are going to kill HDDs for about a decade and a half now (they haven't and won't IMHO), and there are always promising reports of things in the lab that are going to be the NAND flash killer, as if these technologies are right around the corner. They're all very interesting... But none have made it out of the lab yet. 

This might be the sort of thing that could be worthy of speculative investment in some of the companies that are trying to pioneer this, but because of the risk and uncertainty would be such a tiny amount of one's portfolio that even if that investment hit big, it probably still wouldn't be a "get rich" hit. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2025, 08:35:35 AM

Joe Biden's fuel rule faces review by new Transportation chief Sean Duffy (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5112897-duffy-transportation-biden-fuel-efficiency-rule-epa-trump-ev/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2025, 04:26:49 PM

We're finally getting new rail cars.

(https://i.imgur.com/SSTYqBt.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/FHNGymR.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2025, 08:09:03 AM

I've read some say this is proof against global warming...(https://i.imgur.com/WfJHSR7.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2025, 09:11:52 AM

Very happy, is me.

(https://i.imgur.com/4q7FKOC.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2025, 09:16:51 AM

Yup, looking pretty good around here too.

(https://i.imgur.com/mEqWEMm.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2025, 09:33:42 AM

We're headed to Boston next week while the weather here is pretty nice, and there is not so nice.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2025, 09:57:53 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2025, 08:09:03 AM

I've read some say this is proof against global warming...(https://i.imgur.com/WfJHSR7.png)

Rare photos on YouTube shorts towards the end of video an ice covered house along Lake Erie

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TsJ-4l8nXBU?t=45&feature=share

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2025, 10:31:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2025, 08:09:03 AM

I've read some say this is proof against global warming...

(https://i.imgur.com/adDUuh6.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2025, 12:51:43 PM

Collectively, the Lower 48 is running around 4 degrees below average thus far in the month of January. This is the coldest since 1988. While January of 1988 was colder, the maps are remarkably similar. While February of 1988 was also quite cold for parts of the country, February of 2025 looks like it wants to be more balanced with relative warmth surging across the south.

(https://i.imgur.com/5aRmODl.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2025, 12:58:39 PM

Down here in Texico we've had devastating ice storms in February of both 2021 and 2023.  I'm hopeful that the pattern doesn't repeat in 2025.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2025, 12:59:30 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/183DECc.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2025, 11:23:29 AM

What percentage of the warmth from the Sun do you think is retained by the Earth?  

This is a trick question really.

We get radiation from the Sun that turns into heat, often as not, and some is radiated back into space.  So, how much of that heat is retained here?  Ten percent?  Fifty?  One?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2025, 03:03:50 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/US09sTA.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 01, 2025, 04:48:01 PM

https://www.chron.com/news/science-environment/article/coal-plant-fort-bend-20066495.php

Articles like this really bug the crap out of me.  The gist of it is that there is a very large power plant about 40 miles from my house, just SE of Houston, south of what is called Sugarland.  The plant is on a very large tract of land, several thousand acres I'm assuming, and has a giant cooling lake next to it.  The plant has a capacity of 3.7 MW, which is a very large amount of power.  

The plant was first built in the 1950's with natural gas generation, and then the coal part was added in the 1970's.  It's very large, has very tall smoke stacks, and generally is kinda what you think of when you think of what power generating plants have looked like in this country from inception until now.  

This area was once upon a time extremely rural, probably up until the late 1990's and is still on the edge of where suburbia meets extremely rural.  In other words, this place was out in the boondocks until city swallowed up boondocks.  

When you read the article linked all it talks about is how nobody knew it was there, how dirty it is, how much pollution it puts out.  

Thomas, who is a student officer at her school's Eco-Patrol Club, a student-led organization focused on environmental awareness, says that the signs are invisible, but there. Passing by a pond near the local library always left her with "a particular smell." When the Thomas family moved from the back of the neighborhood in Sienna into a newer and bigger home at the front of the suburb, closer to the plant, her father's upper respiratory issues and abdominal pain worsened.

"I didn't know about [the plant] when I started going to Ridge Point. It's kind of hidden because I know multiple people that have told me they didn't realize it was there," Thomas said. 

It's weird because I live ~40 miles away and I know for sure it's there.  It's visible from miles and miles away, and if you pass by it there are big signs that say it's a power plant.  I'm not saying we don't need clean air but I just dislike the way the article presents that these people are just unknowingly suffering when they have been building out suburbia for years and years towards this thing, and benefit from the power it generates.  Newsflash:  If you don't like it, don't move there, and don't keep building subdivisions next to it and then complain about it.  It's literally been there for 70-80 years, burning coal for 50 years.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 01, 2025, 04:51:56 PM

Here is a 10 mile radius around the plant for reference. The plant is at the middle, to the SE edge of Smithers Lake.  

(https://i.imgur.com/Lsj9o46.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 09:00:43 AM

Don't fall for the Big Lie of nuclear energy (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5118792-nuclear-power-industry-radiation-debunk/)

Opinion piece, antinuclear of course, which one can expect more of as folks start to turn more to nuclear as the "Big Lie" of solar/wind starts to become more evident.

Everything has negatives.  I can pretty well dismiss any option by talking only about negatives and providing no perspective.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2025, 09:25:05 AM

a student officer at her school's Eco-Patrol Club, a student-led organization focused on environmental awareness,


:57:;):34:~:P:s_laugh:

maybe they should just shutdown the plant for a week to help people realize that is there and what it does

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2025, 09:33:09 AM

I live less than 10 miles from a similar coal plant, been here since 89.
the ponds don't smell, you can't smell the exhaust of the plant
the steam from the stacks is very impressive on a cold morning or afternoon with no wind
I call bullshit...........

Passing by a pond near the local library always left her with "a particular smell." When the Thomas family moved from the back of the neighborhood in Sienna into a newer and bigger home at the front of the suburb, closer to the plant, her father's upper respiratory issues and abdominal pain worsened.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 09:45:57 AM

A pond COULD smell if it goes stagnant, due to factors unrelated to coal burning.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2025, 09:49:28 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 09:45:57 AM

A pond COULD smell if it goes stagnant, due to factors unrelated to coal burning.

So could a swimming pool.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2025, 09:51:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 09:45:57 AM

A pond COULD smell if it goes stagnant, due to factors unrelated to coal burning.

her father's upper respiratory issues and abdominal pain are probably due to factors unrelated to coal burning

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 09:56:47 AM

A modern coal plant is unlikely to be a factor in either of those maladies.

But they sound good.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2025, 10:19:32 AM

fake news and as big a lie as Donald is gonna make tomorrow

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on February 02, 2025, 10:28:41 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2025, 10:19:32 AM

fake news and as big a lie as Donald is gonna make tomorrow

but not near as big as Joe would have spewed

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 10:34:15 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 01, 2025, 11:23:29 AM

What percentage of the warmth from the Sun do you think is retained by the Earth? 

This is a trick question really.

We get radiation from the Sun that turns into heat, often as not, and some is radiated back into space.  So, how much of that heat is retained here?  Ten percent?  Fifty?  One?

Any guesses?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on February 02, 2025, 10:38:38 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 10:34:15 AM

Any guesses?

It has to be zero, because the sun always shines, and if we retained heat we’d be a lot hotter. 

Or, it could be 3%. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 10:44:39 AM

You are correct, it's very near to zero.  It's a "magical balance" that something very small could shift meaningfully.  Those shifts have occured in the past, ice ages, etc. for other reasons (we think).  Today, we're altering our atmosphere by producing a lot of CO2 (and other stuff like methane) that COULD be enough to affect this balance in a bad way.  I think it's very complex and difficult to model and also think the models COULD be underestimating the impact of CO2.

If they are, we're cooked.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 01:28:17 PM

Beautiful sunny day here, gorgeous blue sky, something I really missed up north.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2025, 02:12:41 PM

beautiful day here
gonna take the dog for a walk to the post office

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2025, 02:13:20 PM

Going to Boston to get out of this heat.

(https://i.imgur.com/KHQlNHp.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 03, 2025, 07:21:53 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2025, 01:28:17 PM

Beautiful sunny day here, gorgeous blue sky, something I really missed up north.

Until the summer came and lakes/ponds dried they'd cook briskett on Georgia asphalt

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2025, 06:41:49 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/world-coal-demand-remains-at-record-high-as-power-demand-surges.html

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2025, 07:41:37 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 03, 2025, 07:21:53 PM

Until the summer came and lakes/ponds dried they'd cook briskett on Georgia asphalt

Summers here are arguably better than in Cincy, they just last longer.  Cincy had bad summers.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2025, 07:44:44 AM

So, the "world" keeps clamoring over Climate Change, as predicted, "We're not doing enough!!!", "things are bad!!!", "We GAVE TO SPEND MORE MONEY!!!".

To me, it's a classic scheme, not something real, even if CC is a substantial problem.  It reminds me of other such problems like hunger and poverty and education and defense in the past, we spend huge sums and get told we need to spend even more.

Maybe "we" should consider other paths?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 10, 2025, 05:19:14 PM

So far only a dozen of the 195 nations that signed the 2015 Paris climate agreement have filed their national plans for cutting emissions by 2035. Those nations account for only 16.2% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions — the chief human-caused heat-trapping gas — and almost all of that is from the United States, where President Donald Trump has already discarded the plan submitted by President Joe Biden’s administration.

Aside from the U.S., the only major emitters to submit 2035 targets are Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. The Marshall Islands, Singapore, Ecuador, Saint Lucia, Andorra, New Zealand, Switzerland and Uruguay have filed their plans, but they all produce less than 0.2% of the world’s carbon dioxide.

U.N. Climate Secretary Simon Stiell said that more than 170 countries have told his office they are working on their national plans, so he’s not worried. He emphasized quality over timeliness.

“Taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense,” Stiell said last week in a policy speech in Brazil. “These will be the most comprehensive climate plans ever developed.”

Champa Patel, policy director of the nonprofit Climate Group, wasn’t as forgiving.

“It’s worrying that countries are failing to meet the urgency of the moment,” Patel said. “The world cannot afford inaction.”

These plans — officially called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs — are the main mechanism of the landmark international agreement. Every five years, nations are supposed to come up with new and stronger five-year plans that outline their voluntary plans to limit or reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

The latest versions are supposed to be compatible with the Paris agreement’s goal of limiting long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. The world is now at 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s and on pace to warm another 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the U.N.

Scientists say the warming atmosphere is driving ever more extreme weather events, including flooding, droughts, hurricanes, heat waves and wildfires that are killing people and causing billions of dollars in damage every year.

The new targets are also supposed to be for all greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. They should cover the entire economy not just the energy sector, according to a 2023 agreement.

Climate Action Tracker — a group of scientists and other experts who analyze nations’ climate plans for domestic emissions — found that four of the six NDC targets they looked at so far got an “almost sufficient” for their target of holding warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Switzerland got an insufficient, with the group saying its plan was more compatible with 3 degrees of warming. The U.K.'s plan was rated compatible for 1.5 degrees of warming.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2025, 05:27:12 PM

Voluntary plans ... geesh, I could prepare one easily that would be terrific on paper.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 10, 2025, 07:06:10 PM

yes, and they're not even doing that much

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2025, 09:01:36 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 10, 2025, 05:19:14 PM

So far only a dozen of the 195 nations that signed the 2015 Paris climate agreement have filed their national plans for cutting emissions by 2035. Those nations account for only 16.2% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions — the chief human-caused heat-trapping gas — and almost all of that is from the United States, where President Donald Trump has already discarded the plan submitted by President Joe Biden’s administration.

Aside from the U.S., the only major emitters to submit 2035 targets are Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. The Marshall Islands, Singapore, Ecuador, Saint Lucia, Andorra, New Zealand, Switzerland and Uruguay have filed their plans, but they all produce less than 0.2% of the world’s carbon dioxide.

Swiss Voters Reject Emission Curbs Over Economic Concerns - SWI swissinfo.ch

(Bloomberg) — Swiss voters rejected a set of rigid emission limits in a plebiscite, dismissing a call for more climate protection over fears that it would stymie the economy.

The so-called Environmental Responsibility Initiative, launched by the youth wing of Switzerland’s Green Party, was supported by just 30% of the electorate, according to government data on Sunday.
 (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-voters-reject-emission-curbs-over-economic-concerns/88848881)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2025, 09:09:53 AM

When it comes to one's economy or one's climate, the former usually is more popular unless the latter is obfuscated with a bunch of burfle.

Clean energy jobs!!!  Learn to code!!!  Oil company profits!!!  Clean air and water for free!!!

Anyway,  the beat goes on, "Climate Change is an URGENT CRISIS and "WE" aren't doing enough fast enough!!!  SPEND SPEND SPEND!!!!"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2025, 09:29:48 AM

3 below zero here this morning with a few inches of fresh powdery snow on the driveway.

I think a bit too much for the leaf blower
shovel? or snowblower?, that is the question

definitely waiting until it's above zero to go out.
cleaned up the back deck while coffee was brewing - Crisp!

expecting another inch of white stuff after midnight

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2025, 09:31:45 AM

Leave it alone or call a plow company tomorrow.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2025, 09:55:33 AM

The low T powdery snow of course often blows away (and then back).  It can be futile dealing with it.  I didn't use the snow blower on less than 5" of powdery stuff.  It just makes a mess if there is a hint of wind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2025, 10:49:42 AM

if the wind is in the right direction, it works great

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2025, 11:08:54 AM

Since 1900, global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen about 21cm and at an accelerating rate.

Measured by satellites, GMSL reached its highest value ever in 2023 and could rise to 1 metre under a very high emissions scenario by the end of the century.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2025, 11:11:36 AM

8" rise over 125 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2025, 11:29:33 AM

Measured by satellites??

they could be off by an inch or so

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2025, 11:37:05 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 11, 2025, 11:29:33 AM

Measured by satellites??

they could be off by an inch or so

In 1900.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2025, 11:41:50 AM

The "very high emissions scenario" basically has been discounted and dropped from considerations anyway.

IPCC/SR/ES/E.pdf (https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/sres-en.pdf)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2025, 01:02:46 PM

From 1993 to 2022. 30 years. 84 mm. 8.4 cm. 3.3 in.

(https://i.imgur.com/kXprrnk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2025, 01:13:20 PM

84 sounds MUCH more impressive than 3.3

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2025, 01:18:47 PM

There are a whole lot of people who don't know what a millimeter is...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2025, 01:59:32 PM

A meter would be troublesome in places with storms and whatnot.

"It would end all life on the planet" according to some.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2025, 10:38:40 AM

Gonna get cold tonight.

(https://i.imgur.com/VGoLd63.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on February 12, 2025, 10:49:19 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2025, 01:18:47 PM

There are a whole lot of people who don't know what a millimeter is...

millimeters are okay, because they're like pennies, so small they're basically worthless.  

Get into meters, kilometers, and especially kilograms, and you've lost me.  Like, I know what they mean, but I have no frame of reference to judge the size/weight of what you're talking about.  

Tell me a guy is 5'7" and weights 262 lbs and I can tell you he's overweight.  Tell me a guy is 1.7 meters and 118 kg and I'm like "Um......good for him?"

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2025, 10:52:13 AM

dimes

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 13, 2025, 12:06:30 PM

After a two month delay, rainy season is finally hitting Southern California. Today's heavy weather is recalling the previous two winters of seasonably high rains. Until yesterday it had hardly rained this winter, which was a big contributor to the overly dry conditions fueling last month's fires across LA County.

https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1890069740238033123

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 13, 2025, 12:07:56 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/ruOukpt.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 13, 2025, 05:35:17 PM

It's been 75 all month. Today? Snow. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: SFBadger96 on February 13, 2025, 05:40:38 PM

Grateful to have the rain this week in Norcal. Not convenient, but definitely necessary.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2025, 08:35:03 AM

Tied a record high yesterday and probably going to get close to a record today.

(https://i.imgur.com/V0HeogU.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2025, 09:00:06 AM

golf weather

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2025, 09:36:05 AM

Glorious winter weather.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2025, 09:36:27 AM

Gaston Planté

In 1859, French physicist Gaston Planté invented the lead acid battery, the world's first rechargeable electric battery and the forerunner of the modern automobile battery. His early model consisted of two sheets of coiled lead soaked in sulfuric acid, but he soon revised this design, and just a year later, he presented a nine-cell version to the Academy of Sciences.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2025, 09:38:50 AM

Certainly one of the most important inventions of the last 200 years.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2025, 12:45:40 PM

There a whole battery of those. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2025, 09:23:16 AM

expected high of 1 this afternoon, 2 degrees for the high Tuesday and Wednesday. overnight lows 15 to 20 below........

the weekend is looking up, might make it to above freezing
next week expected to be balmy, above 40
hopefully, this is our last frigid blast

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2025, 09:31:40 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/SYpYWMK.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 17, 2025, 10:21:48 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 17, 2025, 09:23:16 AM

expected high of 1 this afternoon, 2 degrees for the high Tuesday and Wednesday. overnight lows 15 to 20 below........

the weekend is looking up, might make it to above freezing
next week expected to be balmy, above 40
hopefully, this is our last frigid blast

I'm off work for the holiday, so it'll be the second day of golf for me in a row. 

Enjoy your frozen tundra, tho! 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2025, 11:01:31 AM

it's 68 degrees at the simulator

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 17, 2025, 06:30:49 PM

Well after talking $#!+ about your weather, I guess karma kicked me in the rear. I couldn't do much of anything right out there today. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2025, 09:50:38 PM

probably karma, just difficult to figure out from where & what

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2025, 09:53:46 PM

ya know,....... I don't mean to be a whiner but, .... coming out of thew bar after happy hour to go home and it's negative 6........ then -7 before I drive the 10 minutes just seems excessive.

don't expect the heat pump to be very effective tomorrow morning at -17.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2025, 09:54:10 PM

sending this east to Ohio :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2025, 10:44:40 PM

A bit warmer in Paris. We fly back tomorrow.  I feel a lot better but am not sleeping well.  Rhume.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 18, 2025, 05:40:56 AM

10° now high of 15,we had this 3 weeks ago,single digits and below.Hasn't been above freezing very much in Jan/Feb

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 18, 2025, 08:12:30 AM

only a couple more days and nights of brutal cold here
warming up for the weekend and then balmy temps next week

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2025, 03:14:40 PM

Couple of more rounds doncha mean? Feel's like Joe Louis's Bum of the Month Club and we ain't louis

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2025, 04:01:02 PM

we could use some snow, the wetter and heavier the better
don't need anymore rounds of the double digit below zero crap - I'm tired of getting hit by Joe

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 20, 2025, 12:53:45 PM

Got 3"-4" overnite and still trickling in very light/fluffy prolly good for skiing @ 18° . Gonna put my case of asst'd 6ers of crafts outside I got from the corner guy rotating out "old stock". It'll never see 6 months old 
:bluegrab:

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 22, 2025, 10:00:04 AM

The Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown has one singular mission: to track and countdown the world's remaining coal plant units as decision-makers across governments and the private sector work together to accelerate the transition to a clean energy future.

https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/ (https://bloombergcoalcountdown.com/)

(https://i.imgur.com/wEYzDyR.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 22, 2025, 10:06:10 AM

supposed to get to 38 degrees this afternoon!!!

first time above freezing in weeks!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2025, 10:35:14 AM

Kinda chilly. Only 68 right now.

(https://i.imgur.com/oAFTpy1.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2025, 11:07:30 AM

I'm still coughing, as is my wife, some warmer weather would be welcome.  She's mad at me.

At least it's sunny, but 26°F.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 22, 2025, 11:08:58 AM

I'd be mad too if you were the contagious reason I caught something

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2025, 11:18:36 AM

Yeah, we tried to isolate, but it didn't work.  I usually have some "cold medicine" in my kit, but it was out, and in France, they don't sell much of anything for decongesting or sleeping.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 22, 2025, 12:20:03 PM

prolly don't allow those dangerous chemicals

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2025, 02:49:28 PM

Yeah, France fairly recently banned pseudoephedrine because of possible heart issues (there is evidence of some rare cases).  They have a drug store about every 100 feet in Paris, it's astonishing to me really, but their OTC medications are mostly crap.  

I'm going to load up before our cruise, though the ship does stock some medications.  Pepto is something we may need if we drink some dubious water.  They don't have Pepto in France either.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2025, 03:14:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 22, 2025, 02:49:28 PM

Yeah, France fairly recently banned pseudoephedrine because of possible heart issues (there is evidence of some rare cases).  They have a drug store about every 100 feet in Paris, it's astonishing to me really, but their OTC medications are mostly crap. 

I'm going to load up before our cruise, though the ship does stock some medications.  Pepto is something we may need if we drink some dubious water.  They don't have Pepto in France either.

Ours are worse.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 23, 2025, 08:17:04 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/IOnAgOz.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 24, 2025, 06:38:21 AM

I'm not a fan of the "wind chill" or "feels like" figures.  The "feels like", to me, in winter, it much more impacted by wind than the figures would calculate.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 24, 2025, 07:08:47 AM

yup goes straight to the bones we're crawling out of a frozen malaise that camped out for like a little over 3 weeks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 24, 2025, 07:16:10 AM

I find zero wind conditions to be pretty tolerable with a decent coat and gloves down to around zero F, but 30 F with a 15 mph gusting breeze is just really cold, to me.

The wind makes things much worse in my "feels like" scale.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 24, 2025, 09:08:29 AM

yup, the scientists revised the wind chill calculations decades ago, back in my youth we'd see -70 & -80 windchills more often

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 24, 2025, 09:09:28 PM

Man, we hit 80 in February. That's probably not a good sign. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on February 24, 2025, 10:46:40 PM

the sky is falling

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 25, 2025, 08:39:58 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 24, 2025, 09:08:29 AM

yup, the scientists revised the wind chill calculations decades ago, back in my youth we'd see -70 & -80 windchills more often

And that was the summer no doubt

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 25, 2025, 09:45:22 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 24, 2025, 07:16:10 AM

I find zero wind conditions to be pretty tolerable with a decent coat and gloves down to around zero F, but 30 F with a 15 mph gusting breeze is just really cold, to me.

Sure when you're vacationing about ;D Stop at the loading docks along the North Coast and stay for a shift,ya might reconsider 🥶

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 25, 2025, 10:24:38 AM

I'd rather be in 0°F and no wind than 30°F and 15 mph wind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 25, 2025, 10:30:33 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 25, 2025, 10:24:38 AM

I'd rather be in 0°F and no wind than 30°F and 15 mph wind.

Go to Chicago, where you get both the zero and the wind.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on February 25, 2025, 10:35:11 AM

CD - being in at least 20 hrs a week,believe me no,dial it down 20° and wind then perhaps. Cleveland's colder 847 as the lake has aready froze and less than 70 miles from Canadian Blasts coming across unobstructed. Nobody's cancelling their plans to Cancun or the Riviera for either though

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on February 25, 2025, 11:32:16 AM

I just personally find wind to be a larger factor than the "wind chill" calculation suggests.

I dimly recall something about "bare skin", which is stupid to me.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 27, 2025, 08:15:43 AM

Simply wear windbreakers more, while breaking wind less. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 01, 2025, 06:24:05 PM

got up to 51° yesterday getting down to 15° overnite,beautiful. Lake Ice been breaking up with 2 day warm up,Ice Fishing season just might be done but then again opening day is coming which means have the blower ready

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 01, 2025, 07:06:48 PM

Nice frigid day in Columbus, for the Jackets-Red Wings game in a sold out Ohio Stadium. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2025, 02:35:12 PM

https://youtu.be/S7Fu-v490-c

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 04, 2025, 04:05:02 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/atOpRO8.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on March 05, 2025, 07:47:17 AM

It's going to be kind of chilly in Seoul next week,  Then pretty warm further on our cruise.  Packing will get interesting, my wife says 3 suitcases.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2025, 09:07:18 AM

you get a half, she get's 2 and a half

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2025, 05:32:11 PM

74 wonderful degrees here
if the golf course was open I wouldn't be posting
all the windows and doors are open (Fresh Air!!!)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2025, 06:30:04 PM

Be careful... Coming out of an Iowa winter, you wouldn't want to get heat stroke!

Here it's:

(https://i.imgur.com/KUMYSrF.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2025, 09:41:33 AM

A novel industrial reactor that produces steel using only electricity hit a major milestone after producing a ton of steel at a prototype facility in Massachusetts, US. The technology was developed at MIT and is now set to help the steel industry reduce its emission footprint, a press release said.

Steel production is one of the major contributors to anthropogenic carbon emissions, responsible for up to nine percent of total carbon released into the atmosphere. For every ton of steel produced, 1.89 tons of CO2 are released into the atmosphere.

While attempts have been made to offset this carbon output, MIT researchers wondered if steel production emissions could be eliminated instead. They found the answer to the problem lay in how steel was produced, using coke in a blast furnace and working on an alternative that could supply cleaner steel.

Overcoming Steel’s emissions
In the conventional steelmaking approach, a blast furnace fires iron ore and turns it into iron, the primary component of steel. However, coal-based fuel called coke is added to the blast furnace to do so. The carbon in the coke reacts with oxygen released from iron oxide to form carbon dioxide.


https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/green-steel-produced-without-co2-emissions (https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/green-steel-produced-without-co2-emissions)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 09:27:54 AM

Outflow of Lake O before the government (USACE) "fixed" it.

(https://i.imgur.com/1fOV15k.jpeg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 12:37:04 PM

It's been like two weeks of small craft advisories on the waters here, with a few exceptions. The coming week looks like more of the same.

How's the waters over there @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) ?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2025, 12:39:08 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 12:37:04 PM

It's been like two weeks of small craft advisories on the waters here, with a few exceptions. The coming week looks like more of the same.

How's the waters over there @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) ?

Same.  Windy as hell- rip tide warnings and small craft.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 12:40:44 PM

Kinda sucks having to look at the boat up on the rack all the time.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2025, 12:41:46 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 12:40:44 PM

Kinda sucks having to look at the boat up on the rack all the time.

Yes, it’s kind of a seasonal thing. Even though the fishing is really good this time of year the winds can be very nasty and consistent. Then in June in July, it lays down and goes away and you wish you had some wind because it’s so hot.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 12:43:21 PM

June and July also bring thunderstorms, unfortunately.

I bought some battery operated fans for the boat.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2025, 01:04:14 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 12:43:21 PM

June and July also bring thunderstorms, unfortunately.

I bought some battery operated fans for the boat.

Smart!   Usually, when we go out in June July August, it’s to the sandbar so we park and swim, enjoy the cooler full of Sammie’s and adult beverages.   

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 01:10:07 PM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2025, 01:04:14 PM

Smart!  Usually, when we go out in June July August, it’s to the sandbar so we park and swim, enjoy the cooler full of Sammie’s and adult beverages. 

I have a one drink limit on the boat. There are some sandbars over here too, but man, there is stuff in that water that wants to eat me. Like bull sharks. Those are mean!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2025, 01:12:39 PM

March is a windy month here and I suppose in the windy city
wind isn't great for golf but we power thru since it's been a few months

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 16, 2025, 08:53:57 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2025, 01:10:07 PM

I have a one drink limit on the boat. There are some sandbars over here too, but man, there is stuff in that water that wants to eat me. Like bull sharks. Those are mean!

Just eat it instead. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: longhorn320 on March 17, 2025, 02:20:49 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 16, 2025, 08:53:57 PM

Just eat it instead.

Growing up wade fishing with my dad we always treated sharks with respect. We didnt try to catch them and as it turned out they didnt try to eat us

Nothing in this world will get your attention faster then a twelve footer start making big circles around you when youre waste deep in water and 100 yards from the boat.

Sometimes they just went away and sometimes they stayed around.  As Ive mentioned before there were a few times when we jettisoned any fish we had on our stringers

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2025, 10:46:50 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on March 16, 2025, 01:12:39 PM

March is a windy month here and I suppose in the windy city
wind isn't great for golf but we power thru since it's been a few months

The hardships you endure,soldier on you stout soul

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on March 17, 2025, 11:00:38 AM

Windy AF around these parts last few weeks, typical for March spring weather.  Yesterday was surprisingly calm, was able to take the boat out a few hours.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on March 17, 2025, 11:31:26 AM

Quote from: Gigem on March 17, 2025, 11:00:38 AM

Windy AF around these parts last few weeks, typical for March spring weather.  Yesterday was surprisingly calm, was able to take the boat out a few hours. 

Same here.  Water was almost as chilly as the beers but it was a lovely day on the lake.  Kids already got their surfin' legs back under them.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on April 02, 2025, 10:10:05 PM

1st trip to basement for weather this year.  Possible touchdown just south of me.  80mph gust on gauge I have.  I can see i lost a screen on back porch

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2025, 11:04:14 PM

Stay safe!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2025, 09:07:03 AM

golf weather here this afternoon
53 degrees, partly cloudy, 3mph breeze!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2025, 06:34:31 PM

Could have some snow Sunday as the Artic Vortex is going to plop down right over the area for next week. Could be in the 20's for Clevelands Home Opener on Tuesday vs the White Sox. About ten yrs ago the Home Opener got snowed out. Had to move the game up to sunny Milwaulkee

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2025, 06:41:26 PM

come on out to the banana belt for a round of golf
(https://i.imgur.com/DX4WXyv.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2025, 06:44:19 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 04, 2025, 06:34:31 PM

Could have some snow Sunday as the Artic Vortex is going to plop down right over the area for next week. Could be in the 20's for Clevelands Home Opener on Tuesday vs the White Sox. About ten yrs ago the Home Opener got snowed out. Had to move the game up to sunny Milwaulkee

Yeah, headed to West Lafayette / Ann Arbor for college tours next week, followed by a day back in Chicago before we fly back west... Looks like the weather might be a bit of a mess :'(

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2025, 07:35:21 PM

no pity

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2025, 09:32:10 PM

That oughtta convince him to stay in sunny southern California...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2025, 09:47:28 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2025, 09:32:10 PM

That oughtta convince him to stay in sunny southern California...

Well if he can't get accepted to Berkeley, pretty sure Purdue & Michigan are #2 and #3 on the list. 

Kid could use some toughening up... 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2025, 10:00:55 PM

Oh well Berkley is practically the great white north anyway.  As the old quote goes...

"The coldest winter I ever spent, was summer in San Francisco."  

-Benjamin Franklin

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2025, 10:10:35 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2025, 10:00:55 PM

Oh well Berkley is practically the great white north anyway.  As the old quote goes...

"The coldest winter I ever spent, was summer in San Francisco." 

-Benjamin Franklin

That reminds me of another one. 

"Don't believe everything you read on the Internet."
-Abraham Lincoln 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 05, 2025, 06:00:15 AM

Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2025, 10:00:55 PM

Oh well Berkley is practically the great white north anyway.  As the old quote goes...

"The coldest winter I ever spent, was summer in San Francisco." 

-Benjamin Franklin

Actually Mark Twain, he took a job out there with a newspaper as hostilities between the States was heating up

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 05, 2025, 09:09:32 AM

Actually it wasn't even Mark Twain although he's often credited with the phrase.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2025, 10:00:19 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2025, 06:44:19 PM

Yeah, headed to West Lafayette / Ann Arbor for college tours next week, followed by a day back in Chicago before we fly back west... Looks like the weather might be a bit of a mess :'(

Realistic tours at least, lol

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Gigem on April 05, 2025, 02:58:53 PM

https://twitter.com/txstormchasers/status/1908557834846863585?s=61

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on April 05, 2025, 05:26:52 PM

It's been a swampy rain forest this week.    About 5 inches of rain already since Wed in central IN.    much more south and SW of here.

apparently Terrell Owens got stuck in his Uber (due to flooding).  he was in town for the NIT title game (Chattanooga v UC Irvine).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 05, 2025, 09:17:00 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LssJBt8bVBc

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2025, 09:48:27 AM

This is great. Can't happen soon enough!

(https://i.imgur.com/YdjEcWZ.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2025, 11:52:23 AM

The weather has been super fantastical here in Phoenix.  Zero days over 100 so far.  Often in the 70s still, it's amazing.  

The outdoor oven is inevitable, but to get into April without experiencing it is a blessing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on April 06, 2025, 12:07:38 PM

My wife and daughter are spending next week in PHX/etc.   I see your 100 degree count will commence this week.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2025, 12:12:30 PM

It might freeze tonight out to the west in the Texas Hill Country.  We usually get one last, late cold snap, but it's not usually in April.  I'll take it!  I've lit the fire in the fireplace, and I'll be making boeuf bourguignon for dinner tonight. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2025, 12:20:33 PM

It's been unseasonably hot here in Florida. 90's all last week, with a few records falling. It's felt like July.

It will cool down a bit this week. 

(https://i.imgur.com/uncp2uk.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2025, 12:29:22 PM

spring golf weather here - it's fantastic!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: jgvol on April 07, 2025, 10:02:58 AM

That's me in the yellow box.

I'd say the tornado alley shift is complete.


(https://i.imgur.com/NgPd3G2.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2025, 12:06:48 PM

batten down the hatches

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2025, 12:08:28 PM

Quote from: jgvol on April 07, 2025, 10:02:58 AM

That's me in the yellow box.

I'd say the tornado alley shift is complete.


(https://i.imgur.com/NgPd3G2.png)

Stay safe!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on April 07, 2025, 12:17:47 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 06, 2025, 12:12:30 PM

It might freeze tonight out to the west in the Texas Hill Country.  We usually get one last, late cold snap, but it's not usually in April.  I'll take it!  I've lit the fire in the fireplace, and I'll be making boeuf bourguignon for dinner tonight.

How sure are you about that?  Legit asking.  

iirc, the CenTX weather followed the SWLA weather pretty closely in the years I lived there.  The little town I finished growing up in and lived in through college had an annual festival the second weekend of April, and that was usually our last cold snap of the year.  So I was thinking that probably Austin's final cold snap would probably be around the first or second weekend of April.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2025, 12:24:32 PM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on April 07, 2025, 12:17:47 PM

How sure are you about that?  Legit asking. 

iirc, the CenTX weather followed the SWLA weather pretty closely in the years I lived there.  The little town I finished growing up in and lived in through college had an annual festival the second weekend of April, and that was usually our last cold snap of the year.  So I was thinking that probably Austin's final cold snap would probably be around the first or second weekend of April. 

Well, I've lived in Austin my entire life, so... pretty sure?

Freezes in April are... rare.  

Quote

• Record Low: The coldest April day ever in Austin was April 1, 1926, with a low temperature of 30°F.
• Other Freezes: Only four other days in April have recorded a freeze, including two days back-to-back in 1924.
• Average low temperature in April: The average low temperature on any given April day is 58.9°

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on April 07, 2025, 12:45:14 PM

Oh, sorry, I didn't mean freezes. 

I was just talking about drops into the low 50's, maybe 40's, after it seemed that warmer weather had set in.  I see you're talking about cold snaps and maybe I'm talking about cool snaps.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2025, 01:32:59 PM

Well I guess I did muddle it when I mentioned both freezing weather in the hill country, and weather in Austin cold enough to light a fire and make a delicious French beef stew dish, but that was not in fact freezing or even close to it.

But I don't honestly recall much weather, even with overnight lows in the 40s rather than freezing, being common in April.  Late March is usually the end of it, in my recollection.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MikeDeTiger on April 07, 2025, 01:49:47 PM

Maybe early April is something the two areas don't have in common. 

In general, I could always tell my family what their weather was about to be, because it was typically about a day behind Austin, as far as cold fronts.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MarqHusker on April 07, 2025, 07:10:14 PM

the confirmed data from the Carmel tornado here last week,  EF 1   105mph (peak) ran for 6.6 miles.   some property damage occurred (bunch of roofs ripped off of commercial buildings and parts of homes, no human casualties.

there were 12 that night across IN,  that's over 30 for the season.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2025, 09:08:27 PM

Got up to 50 around 4 PM by 6 it was down to 35 with some flurries getting down to 29° over nite

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2025, 08:59:35 AM

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on April 07, 2025, 01:49:47 PM

Maybe early April is something the two areas don't have in common. 

In general, I could always tell my family what their weather was about to be, because it was typically about a day behind Austin, as far as cold fronts. 

Yeah cold fronts that affect areas of Texas that are north and west of Austin don't always make it to town, and they stall out even sooner in late fall and early spring.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2025, 09:17:34 AM

A cold front is sitting over us right now. It's only 72.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2025, 09:24:08 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2025, 09:17:34 AM

A cold front is sitting over us right now. It's only 72.

(https://i.imgur.com/16NjJym.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2025, 09:28:47 AM

I've actually enjoyed our little cool snap.  Made some boeuf bourguignon, made some chicken and dumplings.  I was gonna make some chili but ran out of cold days.  Ah well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2025, 09:48:07 AM

should have brewed chili the first day

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2025, 09:50:46 AM

Quite true.  It takes way less time than French beef stew!  But the stew was so tasty...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2025, 01:23:03 PM

Little bit of a shaker (https://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Quakes/ci40925991.html)... 

5.2 in Julian, CA (inland San Diego County).

I assume you got a bigger rock and roll out of that than I did, @CatsbyAZ (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1532) ?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 14, 2025, 02:51:40 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2025, 01:23:03 PM

I assume you got a bigger rock and roll out of that than I did, @CatsbyAZ (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1532) ?

My morning was spent aboard an Oiler ship in the San Diego harbor this morning when it happened. So the earthquake everybody else certainly felt was absorbed by the harbor waters. When getting back to my car lots of text messages were waiting, asking about the earthquake. And tuning into the local talk station, programming was suspended for the morning show duo to return to air and take calls from around the county about the earthquake. Back in the office now, and everybody is saying it felt like a truck hit our building.

Thanks for checking in!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2025, 02:56:40 PM

One of my friends is chief engineer on an oil ship that runs from Houston to Fort Lauderdale and back.

What do you do on the ship?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2025, 09:04:20 PM

Researchers at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln have received a $2.3 million grant to explore selectively breeding beef cattle to lower methane emissions.

UNL is the only U.S. university to receive a grant through the $27 million international project. The initiative is funded by the Bezos Earth Fund, a philanthropic effort of billionaire Amazon owner Jeff Bezos, and the Global Methane Hub, an international philanthropic organization focused on reducing methane emissions.

Most of the grant money will pay for research on breeding low-methane traits into sheep and cattle across North America, South America, Europe, Africa and Australia. UNL will lead the research on low-methane beef genetics in commercial and crossbred cattle populations across the United States.

The UNL team, led by professor Matt Spangler, will collect and analyze methane data from beef cattle to “better understand the role genetics plays in methane production and its relationship with traits of economic importance to cattle producers,” according to a news release.

"I think this is a really exciting opportunity to engage graduate students and have them trained in really cutting-edge science that includes genomics and facets of the microbiome, and the opportunity to engage with international collaborators," Spangler said in an interview.

Methane, a potent greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere, is estimated to be responsible for about 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the industrial revolution. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, significant reductions in methane emissions would have a “rapid and significant effect” on global warming.

The agriculture sector is the largest source of methane emissions in the United States, and cattle are the largest contributors to livestock-related methane emissions. Cattle and other animals such as sheep and goats produce methane through a process called enteric fermentation.

Selective breeding has been used in dairy and beef cattle for decades. Farmers breed dairy cows to produce more milk, be resilient to disease and increase fertility. Beef cattle are bred to have an increased size and muscle mass and to produce high-quality meat.

With the discovery that some animals, even those in the same herd, emit significantly less methane than others, the idea of selectively breeding cattle to produce less methane has emerged as a potential tool for worldwide methane reduction.

A 2023 study published in the Journal of Dairy Science found that dairy cows with naturally lower methane emissions did not produce less or lower-quality milk. Other studies have suggested that the low-methane trait is at least partially heritable, which means it could be selectively bred.

"There's very strong evidence in the scientific literature that shows that enteric methane emission from beef cattle is moderately heritable," Spangler said. "The exact genetic mechanisms are not known, but we have evidence to say it's a complex trait, meaning there are thousands upon thousands, perhaps, of DNA variants that individually contribute to an animal's genetic propensity to emit methane.

"The goal is to produce genetic selection tools to enable breeders to be able to select for animals that perhaps produce less methane, but I think it's important to understand that would need to be done in concert with selection for other traits at the same time."

In the Global Methane Hub’s six-year strategic plan, genetic research is established as a priority. By 2030, the goal is to establish reference populations by genotyping between 20,000 and 50,000 animals within a population to identify, on a large scale, the traits that could lead to lower methane emissions.

Spangler said the first step is to acquire the equipment to gather methane data from such a large animal population. Then, he said, it's a matter of collecting and analyzing that data to begin to "uncover the answers to the questions we sought out to answer."

The research will span five years, and Spangler said he will collaborate with a colleague based in Kansas to gather additional data.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2025, 04:26:25 AM

Trends in CO2 - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html#mlo)

Newsflash, CO2 levels continue to rise at the same rate as before (even a bit faster perhaps).  

A lot of happy talk but this simply is a hard fact.  We're not really doing anything about this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2025, 06:23:16 PM

71 deg, this time last nite,42 now getting down to freezing, Good thing baseball season has started

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2025, 05:49:36 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/Eg5m2Iu.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2025, 08:46:46 AM

build baby, build!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2025, 08:51:04 AM

Aside from some murmurs, nothing is really happening on the nuke front in the US.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2025, 09:47:32 AM

The UK government is poised to approve experiments that seek ways to dim sunlight and deflect it away to fight “runaway climate change,” a report Wednesday claims.

Outdoor field trials which could include injecting aerosols into the atmosphere, or brightening clouds to reflect sunshine, are being considered by scientists as a way to prevent runaway climate change.

Aria, the Government’s advanced research and invention funding agency, has set aside £50 million for projects, which will be announced in the coming weeks.


Prof Mark Symes, the programme director for Aria (Advanced Research and Invention Agency), is reported by the Telegraph to have confirmed there will be, “small controlled outdoor experiments on particular approaches”.

“We will be announcing who we have given funding to in a few weeks and when we do so we will be making clear when any outdoor experiments might be taking place,” he said.


https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/04/23/report-scientists-look-to-dim-the-sun-to-counter-runaway-climate-change/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwY2xjawJ3H6VleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETE4dlRVQnNQU3VPdHlCZ2tFAR4qGfMr_Gulvc_hn83Xa2P_yX-4N2g_5x-YevQen6STC6QutJQtkfIt_4T3JQ_aem_nRPFG28se27Tmh7N7-blxg (https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/04/23/report-scientists-look-to-dim-the-sun-to-counter-runaway-climate-change/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwY2xjawJ3H6VleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETE4dlRVQnNQU3VPdHlCZ2tFAR4qGfMr_Gulvc_hn83Xa2P_yX-4N2g_5x-YevQen6STC6QutJQtkfIt_4T3JQ_aem_nRPFG28se27Tmh7N7-blxg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2025, 09:49:16 AM

Yeah, because it's so sunny in England... Idiots.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2025, 09:56:45 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2025, 09:49:16 AM

Yeah, because it's so sunny in England... Idiots.

You would think that if you're researching something like making clouds more reflective...

...you wouldn't want to do that in Phoenix. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2025, 10:00:31 AM

Phoenix has clouds????

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2025, 10:13:41 AM

Various geoengineering efforts have been proposed and some experiments done, like seeding the oceans with iron.  Recently the fuel used by ocean tankers was changed to reduce sulfur content to reduce SO2 pollution and some think that has warmed the planet some.  The aerosols at high altitude reflect sunlight some.  Volcanic eruptions do this, and jet contrails have some impact.  There is talk about putting large metal foil in space to deflect sunlight to some "degree".

Analysis: How low-sulphur shipping rules are affecting global warming - Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/)

Sulphur particles contained in ships’ exhaust fumes have been counteracting some of the warming coming from greenhouse gases. But lowering the sulphur content of marine fuel has weakened the masking effect, effectively giving a boost to warming.

Some researchers have proposed (https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1669667629844267008) that the drop in SO2 as a result of the IMO’s clean air regulations could be behind a recent spike (https://www.axios.com/2023/06/13/climate-extremes-warming-charts-concerns) in global sea surface temperature. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2025, 10:14:47 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 24, 2025, 10:00:31 AM

Phoenix has clouds????

None that I've ever seen.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2025, 10:19:17 AM

We were driving to the airport in Phoenix and it rained on us, briefly.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2025, 08:11:29 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/XzFMC9C.png)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2025, 08:14:05 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2025, 09:49:16 AM

Yeah, because it's so sunny in England... Idiots.

Scotland =  South Beach/Malibu, same-same

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2025, 08:31:19 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 24, 2025, 10:00:31 AM

Phoenix has clouds????

Funny an old friend moved out there in November '22 as his wife has family there and one daughter attends ASU. Anyway a couple of other friends flew out there 3-4 weeks ago to visit and golf as all three are addicted duffers. So it was cold and wet the whole time but not before/after

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2025, 08:33:28 AM

happens to golfers
bad karma

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2025, 06:37:36 PM

Got up to 82° today along the lake warmer inland.According to the computer forcast the one guy uses could be 37 when we wake up. What a fackin' temp rollercoaster we've been on