CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on August 05, 2019, 11:13:01 AM
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Over in the preseason polls thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/preseason-polls-coming-out/20/) I noted that Michigan (at Maryland in between ND and MSU) and Northwestern (at Indiana in between Iowa and Purdue) both have potential "trap games" on Saturday, November 2. What other potential "trap games" do you see this year?
One for most teams, my thoughts (going generally E->W):
Rutgers: They really aren't good enough to have a "trap game" because I'm defining that as a game that you should definitely win (they hardly have any of those) but could lose largely because a let-down is likely given the surrounding games.
Maryland: The Terps have Temple in between Syracuse and Penn State. I could see that being a potential trap game.
Penn State: The Nittany Lions have Maryland in between Pitt and Purdue. I could see that.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes have Maryaland and Rutgers in between NU&UW (before) and PSU and M (after). I could see either of those.
Michigan: See above
Michigan State: The Spartans have Illinois after a brutal three-game stretch of @tOSU, @UW, vsPSU and before @M. I could see that.
Indiana: n/a (see Rutgers)
Purdue: The Boilermakers have Maryland in between PSU and Iowa. I could see that.
Illinois: n/a (see Rutgers)
Northwestern: See above
Iowa: The Hawkeyes have MTSU in between ISU and Michigan. I could see that.
Wisconsin: The Badgers have Illinois in between MSU and tOSU. I could see that.
Minnesota: The Gophers have Illinois in between Purdue and Nebraska. I could see that.
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers have Maryland in between Wisconsin and Iowa. I could see that.
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For Michigan I see their Big Ten opener in Madison as the most dangerous. Michigan has not won at Camp Randall since 2001. Wisconsin is solid everywhere. Yes, they will be starting a new QB but behind on one of the best offensive lines and running backs in the country. It doesn't get any better if you have to start a new QB.
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While that could end up in the "L" column it couldn't be defined as the classic trap.As most teams who could lose to UW wouldn't be seen as out of the realm if it did happen
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For Michigan I see their Big Ten opener in Madison as the most dangerous. Michigan has not won at Camp Randall since 2001. Wisconsin is solid everywhere. Yes, they will be starting a new QB but behind on one of the best offensive lines and running backs in the country. It doesn't get any better if you have to start a new QB.
I definitely think that Michigan's game at Wisconsin is a tough game but I don't see it as a "trap game" because I don't see it as a game that Michigan "should definitely win".
I'm not saying that Wisconsin should beat Michigan, just that I wouldn't consider it to be a shocking upset if they did.
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How many times has Michigan has played in Madison since 2001? I think it's 4. Dammit Jim Delaney.
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I think Michigan's biggest trap game is Indiana, just before OSU. Partly because of this placement in recent years, the Hoosiers have given Michigan more trouble than Maryland.
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I think Michigan's biggest trap game is Indiana, just before OSU. Partly because of this placement in recent years, the Hoosiers have given Michigan more trouble than Maryland.
I basically found one and quit looking so I missed this but I agree with you. Michigan has two big potential trap games. At Maryland is between rivalry games against ND and MSU while at Indiana is between rivalry games against MSU and tOSU.
The end of Michigan's schedule is interesting. Their last five games consist of their three biggest rivalries all at home:
- vs ND on 10/16
- vs MSU on 11/16
- vs tOSU on 11/30
And then there are two road games against teams that Michigan should definitely beat:
- at UMD on 11/2
- at IU on 11/23
Those road games look like they *SHOULD* probably be easy wins but you never know when a bunch of 18-22 year old kids are going to overlook an "easy" game especially if it happens to be right between much bigger games.
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How many times has Michigan has played in Madison since 2001? I think it's 4. Dammit Jim Delaney.
They have played 10 total games (even record at 5-5) and 4 of them have been in Madison.
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They have played 10 total games (even record at 5-5) and 4 of them have been in Madison.
This is definitely the downside of conference expansion. Michigan and Wisconsin played every year from 1973-1990 with Michigan going 17-1 over those 18 years against mostly mediocre or worse Wisconsin teams.
They missed each other in 1991 and 1992 which was probably good for Wisconsin as Michigan finished those two years 10-2 and 9-0-3 while Wisconsin finished 5-6 both years.
Starting with 1993 (which is really convenient for Wisconsin) the two have played only 17 times in 26 years with Michigan holding a 10-7 advantage:
- 1993 Wisconsin won at home and finished 10-1-1, Michigan finished 8-4
- 1994 Wisconsin won on the road and finished 7-4-1, Michigan finished 8-4
- 1995 dnp
- 1996 dnp
- 1997 Michigan won on the road and finished 12-0, Wisconsin finished 8-5
- 1998 Michigan won at home and finished 10-3, Wisconsin finished 11-1
- 1999 Michigan won on the road and finished 10-2, Wisconsin finished 10-2
- 2000 Michigan won at home and finished 9-3, Wisconsin finished 9-4
- 2001 Michigan won on the road and finished 8-4, Wisconsin finished 5-7
- 2002 Michigan won at home and finished 10-3, Wisconsin finished 8-6
- 2003 dnp
- 2004 dnp
- 2005 Wisconsin won at home and finished 10-3, Michigan finished 7-5
- 2006 Michigan won at home and finished 11-2, Wisconsin finished 12-1
- 2007 Wisconsin won at home and finished 9-4, Michigan finished 9-4
- 2008 Michigan won at home and finished 3-9, Wisconsin finished 7-6
- 2009 Wisconsin won at home and finished 10-3, Michigan finished 5-7
- 2010 Wisconsin won on the road and finished 11-2, Michigan finished 5-7
- 2011 dnp
- 2012 dnp
- 2013 dnp
- 2014 dnp
- 2015 dnp
- 2016 Michigan won at home and finished 10-3, Wisconsin finished 11-3
- 2017 Wisconsin won at home and finished 13-1, Michigan finished 8-5
- 2018 Michigan won at home and finished 10-3, Wisconsin finished 8-5
The home team has won nine of the last ten meetings with the lone exception being a Wisconsin team that finished 11-2 in 2010 winning in Ann Arbor over a Michigan team that finished 5-7.
Dating all the way back to 1993 the home team has only lost five times and in three of those five cases the winning road team had a substantially better (>3 games) final record.
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I went to that 2001 game, some ST dude on UW couldn't stay away from the punt on a PETER roll.
That and some other stupid stuff happened.
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With all due respect, Michigan hasn't had a bad loss since Harbaugh has been the coach, the worst ones being the bowl game against 2017 South Carolina, @ 2016 Iowa, and @ 2015 Utah, none of which were bad teams by any definition short of just looking at top 25 teams.
Yes, there have been some close wins against lesser teams, particularly against Indiana, @ 2016 Minnesota, and arguably both wins over Sparty, and maybe they're overdue for a bad loss, but I just don't see it happening this year (if anything, Army is the one unranked team that concerns me, but I think Michigan will be prepared for them).... Otherwise, the home games against Notre Dame and Ohio State are the biggest concerns, along with Iowa and Sparty to a lesser extent.
Given Wisconsin's QB situation, I think Michigan will finally win in Madison this year barring bad weather and/or Wisconsin's defense (particularly its secondary, since Michigan should be pass-oriented this year) being dominant and forcing more turnovers than Michigan does..... Similar deal with Penn State since they have even more uncertainty in their backfield along with elsewhere in their offense.
As the cliche goes, that's why they play the games, though....
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I went to that 2001 game, some ST dude on UW couldn't stay away from the punt on a PETER roll.
That and some other stupid stuff happened.
Brett Bell.
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Given Wisconsin's QB situation, I think Michigan will finally win in Madison this year ...
Since the Madison streak against Michigan spans 4 total games across 2 decades, I don't think this is a streak that needs a new narrative in order for "a corner to be turned." But if it did, I think that'd have less to do with UW's QB than with Michigan's OL. That cache of Lloyd wins over Barry came largely by winning upfront.
Michigan hasn't had a bad loss since Harbaugh has been the coach
(...)
maybe they're overdue for a bad loss, but I just don't see it happening this year (if anything, Army is the one unranked team that concerns me
(...)
Those are both fair points. I especially hate having a service academy on the schedule ... ever, really.
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Really?Not trying to be a schwanz but last year with everything working in M's favor with much ballhoo & bluster and ranked number 3/4 and 4.5 pt chalk the wheels came off vs tOSU.Not rubbing it in just pointing out the wind came out of the sails there.And it definitely was a "bad loss" and look,just go back to the M Boards and read the uproar.Or Buckeye/Sparty Boards for Schadenfreude :040:
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Michi87 was saying that Michigan has never lost to a bad team under Harbaugh. I'd also say the OSU game showed how important Devin Bush was to last year's defense. It was a close game until his injury. Some of that was corrected by the time Bush and Rashan sat out versus Florida ... and then on consecutive plays both of their backups got injured and those wheels fell off too. But now I've ventured off track. I was supposed to be talking about losses to bad teams and instead started waving my hands about big losses to good teams.
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Michi87 was saying that Michigan has never lost to a bad team under Harbaugh. I'd also say the OSU game showed how important Devin Bush was to last year's defense. It was a close game until his injury. Some of that was corrected by the time Bush and Rashan sat out versus Florida ... and then on consecutive plays both of their backups got injured and those wheels fell off too. But now I've ventured off track. I was supposed to be talking about losses to bad teams and instead started waving my hands about big losses to good teams.
I think it is fair to say that Michigan hasn't lost to a bad team under Harbaugh. Maybe he never will. One thing that Tressel was extremely good at was avoiding losses to bad teams. Specifically, from 2005-2008 Tressel's tOSU teams lost eight games:
- Three were to that year's NC (TX in 2005, UF in 2006, and LSU in 2007)
- Three more were to teams that finished not as NC but with only one loss (PSU in 2005, USC and TX in 2008)
- One was to a team that finished not as NC but with only two losses (PSU in 2008)
- One was to a team that won the Big11Ten and finished 9-4 (Illinois in 2007)
For other coaches, losses to inferior teams are a major issue. Pete Carroll famously lost to some REALLY bad teams during his great run at USC and the last two years Urban Meyer lost once each year to a significantly inferior team at Ohio State.
All of that said, when Harbaugh first took over at Michigan I don't really think that Michigan was subject to "trap games" because they were coming off of a sub .500 year. I think of a trap game as a potential loss to an opponent that is easy to overlook. When you are coming off of a 5-7 year you really have no excuse to overlook any opponent.
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Michi87 was saying that Michigan has never lost to a bad team under Harbaugh. I was supposed to be talking about losses to bad teams and instead started waving my hands about big losses to good teams.
Gotcha
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I've always disliked the term "trap game" because, if I remember correctly, it was originally used for a game that sneaked up on a team that would likely have won it had they been prepared. If that's the case, it seems odd to anticipate games which teams should not let themselves be caught off guard for, and then predict that they will be caught off guard for them.
But I suppose the meaning of the term has evolved some since I began ignoring it. Please accept my preemptive apology in advance for this niggle...
ETA: Ha ha, I've heard some Texas fans refer to last season's opening day loss to Maryland, a game they had then entire off-season to prepare for after losing at home the previous season, as a "trap game."
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I've always disliked the term "trap game" because, if I remember correctly, it was originally used for a game that sneaked up on a team that would likely have won it had they been prepared. If that's the case, it seems odd to anticipate games which teams should not let themselves be caught off guard for, and then predict that they will be caught off guard for them.
But I suppose the meaning of the term has evolved some since I began ignoring it. Please accept my preemptive apology in advance for this niggle...
ETA: Ha ha, I've heard some Texas fans refer to last season's opening day loss to Maryland, a game they had then entire off-season to prepare for after losing at home the previous season, as a "trap game."
Well sure. Even though they also lost to Maryland the year prior and all that, they were most certainly looking ahead to Tulsa.
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I view it simply as a game between or perhaps following a major opponent the week before, often a road game against a less talented opponent who is disfavored by 10 points or more. A team hits an emotional high with a great win over a great team and "reads their press clippings' and cannot maintain the emotions.
We see it all the time, but we also see upsets in "non-trap games" as well. I don't know if one is more frequent than they other, but it seems like it is.
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I view it simply as a game between or perhaps following a major opponent the week before, often a road game against a less talented opponent who is disfavored by 10 points or more. A team hits an emotional high with a great win over a great team and "reads their press clippings' and cannot maintain the emotions.
We see it all the time, but we also see upsets in "non-trap games" as well. I don't know if one is more frequent than they other, but it seems like it is.
I'm probably oversensitive because my Terrapins are always on a lot of "trap game" lists since changing leagues :-)
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Well, probably the ideal "trap game team" is one who is going to be 5-7 to 7-5 in the season playing someone likely to be 11-1.
Rutgers is unlikely to be a trap game for anyone.
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Maryland: The Terps have Temple in between Syracuse and Penn State. I could see that being a potential trap game.
In all fairness to Temple, they walloped Maryland at Maryland last year. Not even as close as the 14-35 score. Maybe it's a trap game for Temple...
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Well, probably the ideal "trap game team" is one who is going to be 5-7 to 7-5 in the season playing someone likely to be 11-1.
Rutgers is unlikely to be a trap game for anyone.
unlikely because they are not likely to pull the upset
but, as soon as they pull an upset, BINGO, it was a "trap" game
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I guess Indiana at home?
They are smack dab in the middle of a stretch that goes ARIZONA STATE, @Northwestern, INDIANA, @Ohio State, @Wisconsin, PENN STATE, ILLINOIS, @Michigan
So coming off ASU-Northwestern, leading into OSU-Wisconsin, that one could get sneaky. Illinois before Michigan also sticks out, but MSU has a bye between Penn State and Illinois, so that might help, plus Indiana is better.
I also am just now realizing that while MSU for the first time in years doesn't have their bye right at the beginning of the season, but this being a double bye season, getting byes twice in 3 weeks (October 19 and November 2), with just a home game against PSU in between.
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The Badgers' trap games are Illinois and Purdue. Easy to see a team come off a big win against MSU and look forward to the big game in Columbus, rather than focusing on lowly Illinois in nondescript Champaign Urbana. Purdue a little less so given the game last year, but after a trip to Nebraska and the week before a chance for redemption at Minnesota, they could take Purdue at home a little too lightly.
Generally I like the way the Badgers' season shapes up (though I'm unimpressed with the non-conference teams). If they are better than last year, they could make some real noise.
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the only "potential" trap game for the Huskers would be the Maryland game. Preceded by the Badger game in Lincoln with the Hawkeye game following
I say potential because if the Huskers aren't performing as the close to top 25 team most are predicting then it will not be a trap game, it will be just another game they really need to win to try to get bowl eligible.
If the Huskers have 7 or more wins going to Maryland, then it could be a trap.