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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on October 15, 2017, 10:53:39 PM

Title: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8
Post by: ohio1317 on October 15, 2017, 10:53:39 PM
Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
 Clemson
 Washington State
 Navy
 San Diego State
 Washington
 
 Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
 Troy
 Auburn
 Georgia Tech
 Utah
 Texas Tech
 Houston
 UTSA
 
 Teams with 1st Win week 7:
 None
 
 Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
 Week 0/1: 36.15% (47/130)
 Week 2: 37.35% (31/83)
 Week 3: 28.85% (15/52)
 Week 4: 35.13% (13/37)
 Week 5: 29.17% (7/24)
 Week 6: 23.53% (4/17)
 Week 7: 38.46% (5/13)
 
 Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
 5: We drop by 2 as we lost all our possible undefeateds along the west coast this week. Both the undefeated Washington schools lost in the PAC-12 along with San Diego State in the Mountain West.
 
 Possible undefeated teams: Alabama/Georgia, Penn State/Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Texas Christian, and Central Florida/South Florida
 
 Week 7 Thoughts:
 -What a week. This is why college football is so fun.
 
 -With the losses this week, we now have the potential for only 3 games between undefeated teams in the regular season. Central Florida and South Florida play each other during Thanksgiving weekend. Penn State/Wisconsin and Alabama/Georgia would play each other in their conference championship games the following week if still unbeaten. At the very least that means we will go from week 5 to week 13 without any games between undefeated teams which I would guess is the longest stretch I have ever seen since starting this.
 
 -The PAC-12 probably had the biggest shake-up this week. It is the first of the major conferences to lose its last unbeatens and there seems to be a ton of parity in the conference. While good on many levels, that probably is not good for the conferences Rose/Sugar hopes. Given history, it will be tough to get a 2-loss team into the top 4 (not impossible, but unlikely), which means all its Rose/Sugar hopefuls need to keep winning.
 
 -The ACC saw the single biggest surprise of the week with Clemson falling to Syracuse. It looked like Maimi (FL) was going to fall too, but managed just beat Georgia Tech and stay unbeaten.
 
 -We have kind of developed an expectation after 3 years of the CFP to how things work that I think we need to be careful with. Every team in so far has been a 0 or 1 loss team from one of the power 5 conferences. That’s a good thing to remember, but I think it is clouding how people look at this a little. Here are a few things that might become relevant if certain teams keep winning.
 2 SEC teams: Georgia has looked extremely good so far this season and are going to be heavy favorites most the rest of the way (although do play at Auburn). Give it another couple of weeks like this and you are going to start to hear a lot of talk about possibly putting in both Alabama and Georgia if both go through unbeaten till the championship game. It’s still likely one of those 2 drop a game somewhere, but if they don’t, I think that’s a very real scenario.
 Notre Dame: The Irish have USC next week, but have looked good this year with 1 loss. They have really gotten no major press as a national title contender, but if they beat USC next week, we will have to at least start thinking of scenarios with them in it.
 
 -The Group of 5 bid saw some shake-up this week with Boise State beating previous unbeaten San Diego State and Navy losing to Memphis. To me this means USF and UCF now control their own destinies. Either one will get the bid if they win out and either is very, very close to securing it even with a loss if they win the American. The only chance I still see for a 1-loss USF/UCF American champ not making it would be to a 1-loss San Diego State (which would likely have them beating Boise State in a rematch) and that would still be up for debate. I think Boise State can get in this too, but they need the American champ to have at least 2 losses.
 
 Week 8 Thoughts:
 -We have our final game of the year between winless teams as Georgia Southern plays at UMass.
 
 -We have 3 games between 2 teams who are undefeated or with 1-loss this week: 1-loss Michigan at undefeated Penn State, undefeated Central Florida at 1-loss Navy, and 1-loss USC at 1-loss Notre Dame.
 
 -Our other undefeated teams are in the following games: Tennessee at undefeated Alabama, Kansas at undefeated TCU, Maryland @ undefeated Wisconsin, Syracuse at undefeated Miami (FL).
 
 -Of those games, USC at Notre Dame stands out most to me. I don’t think either will end up making the Rose/Sugar, but do think the winner will get a big boost up in standing on that front from this game. It’s also feeling like a big game for the PAC-12.
 
 Remaining Undefeated Teams:
ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 2, total: 8
 Miami (FL)
 South Florida
 Penn State
 Wisconsin
 Central Florida
 Texas Christian
 Georgia
 Alabama
 
 One-Loss Teams:
ACC: 4, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1, total: 19
 Virginia
 North Carolina State
 Ohio State
 Marshall
 Notre Dame
 Toledo
 Oklahoma State
 Kentucky
 Michigan State
 Southern California
 Memphis
 Virginia Tech
 Oklahoma
 Michigan
 Clemson
 Washington State
 Navy
 San Diego State
 Washington
 
 Remaining Winless Teams:
Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 5
 Baylor
 Charlotte
 UTEP
 Massachusetts
 Georgia Southern
Title: Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2017, 05:59:35 AM
Excellent summary.  Last I saw UGA was underdog at Auburn, but that may have shifted since the Auburn loss.

Notre Dame has some major tests upcoming with USC and NCSU, which is turning out to be pretty good, and Stanford.  Clemson goes to NCSU, which only has that bizarre loss to USCe in Week One.  NCSU could of course win the ACC as they "control their own destiny", a term we will all hear too much in the weeks ahead.  CTOD?

I like how Ohio State is playing now since their loss to OU.  

A lot of the unbeatens have really not been tested to date other than for some consistency.  Some of them have beaten up on clearly inferior teams and might not be all that (Penn State?).  If you consistently demolish bad teams it means something though (Alabama?).  Miami indeed looks to be skating on the ice that first forms in late fall.

This year is pretty much on historical averages for number of undefeated teams remaining by week.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/8/2/16081440/unbeaten-teams-at-this-point-in-the-season-normal-average

Title: Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2017, 06:31:43 AM
It is interesting to see that "Kentucky" CIOD as well in the SEC East, though Miss State is probably favored this weekend.

Some of those one loss teams likely will be "significant".  I don't know about USC.  Clemson of course is one, and NCSU is one I think as well.  Michigan has a bit of a test upcoming.  GOTW?