2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[mcwterps1]

And Cowan transferring

That's twice I've seen this.
Wiley is transferring. 

[ELA]

Jaren Jackson going pro.  No shock, should be a top 5 pick.

[ELA]

Tony Carr gone and hiring an agent too?

[847badgerfan]

UW back in the top-4 to start a new streak is looking more and more likely every day.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think most MSU fans actually thought the chances of him returning were lower than they should be anyway.  He's not a kid who seems to enjoy coaching, and his limitations aren't going to change.  He's a traditional big, who isn't that big, trying to get into a league that has very few players that still play that way, and those that do, are much taller than he is.  I don't think he's going to like what the scouts say, but I'm not sure they'll like him any more in two years.  If he's going to Europe anyway, maybe he'd rather just go now.

I've heard that. Though if he does come back, I'd be quick to expect he'll stay through graduation. That's something that only MSU (excluding the infinitesimal chance of a college transfer) can give him. Otherwise, yes, Europe.

[medinabuckeye1]

Welcome Michigan fans. Who is leaving, who returns, etc?

[ELA]

ESPN waited about 3 seconds to release their preseason rankings, which have MSU #11, UM #12 and Purdue #24.  They seem to be assuming Ward and Edwards return, Wagner leaves.

Even if that happens, I'd make Michigan the prohibitive favorite next year.  Behind them, who knows?  Conference should be deeper next year, but without the top end talent.  Behind Michigan, I have no idea.  I think there are a bunch of teams that could be anywhere from #2 through about #7

[ELA]

ESPN waited about 3 seconds to release their preseason rankings, which have MSU #11, UM #12 and Purdue #24.  They seem to be assuming Ward and Edwards return, Wagner leaves.

Even if that happens, I'd make Michigan the prohibitive favorite next year.  Behind them, who knows?  Conference should be deeper next year, but without the top end talent.  Behind Michigan, I have no idea.  I think there are a bunch of teams that could be anywhere from #2 through about #7

Recap...
ESPN: #11 MSU, #12 UM, #24 PU
Yahoo: #9 MSU, #12 UM, #25 UW
AP: #11 MSU, #14 UM, #19 UMD
CBS: #11 MSU, #17 UMD, #23 UM, #26 PU
I'm not seeing where MSU should be preseason #1 next year

[NickSmith4Three]

Illinois picked up Tevian Jones today.  Nice wing with some size.

2 scholarships still open for 2018

[847badgerfan]

Happ declared today but will not hire an agent. Yawn.

[FearlessF]

The confetti has barely hit the floor in San Antonio, but that hasn’t stopped the Big Ten Network from putting out its power rankings for the 2018-19 basketball season. 

The good news for Nebraska fans is that they didn’t have to read too long to find the Huskers. The Big Ten Network’s Tom Dienhart has Nebraska No. 3 on his predicted order of finish in the Big Ten next year, right behind Michigan and Michigan State. 

There’s of course a big caveat — assuming the Huskers get James Palmer Jr., and Isaac Copeland back after they test the NBA waters. 

Dienhart writes: 

“If Isaac Copeland Jr. and James Palmer Jr. return after testing the NBA draft waters, the Cornhuskers could earn that NCAA bid that eluded them in 2017-18 and enjoy an upper-division finish. But how will Tim Miles deal with big expectations? Glynn Watson is a nice veteran and Isaiah Roby is breakout star to monitor.”

Certainly the keys are Copeland and Palmer, who put their names in for NBA Draft consideration, but have not hired agents. Both players have until May 30 to withdraw their names to maintain their NCAA eligibility. 

The Huskers will add 2018 signees in center Brady Heiman, point guard Xavier Johnson, while guard Karrington Davis will sign a letter of intent this spring. 

[Anonymous Coward]

Bart Torvik has updated his site with this season's tourney results. A cool stat he tracks is "PASE" (performance against seed expectations). PAKE (performance against KenPom expectations) is intriguing, too.
http://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?conlimit=&yrlow=2011&yrhigh=2018&type=team&sort=18

[ELA]

FWIW, Lunardi opens with MSU as a 2, which is actually higher than he had them in his initial 2017-18 version.

He's seeing a bounceback season at least in terms of depth for the conference with 7 teams in (#2 MSU, #3 Michigan, #6 OSU, #7 Purdue, #9 Nebraska, #10 Maryland, #11 PSU) and 2 teams in the Next Four Out (UW, IU)

Only Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, Minnesota and Northwestern out of the NCAA mix.

[medinabuckeye1]

Bart Torvik has updated his site with this season's tourney results. A cool stat he tracks is "PASE" (performance against seed expectations). PAKE (performance against KenPom expectations) is intriguing, too.
http://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?conlimit=&yrlow=2011&yrhigh=2018&type=team&sort=18

I thought this was very interesting.  Some notes (over dude's 2011-2018 timeframe):
The B1G is second with a PAKE of 4.0 and a PASE of 7.6.  We trail the SEC but none of the other major conferences are in the top-5.  It goes:

• SEC, 14.2:  59-35
• B1G, 7.6:  78-50
• MVC, 5.7:  17-12
• Horizon, 3.3:  5-8
• CAA, 2.1:  6-10
• ACC, 1.9:  83-48
• ASun, 1.5:  3-8
• MAC, 0.9:  2-8
• CUSA, 0.8:  5-9
• P12, 0.7:  39-31

The other two major conferences are last and second-to-last among conferences on the PASE metric.  

Among B1G teams (sorted by and displayed with PASE):

• #3 Michigan, 6.5:  16-7
• #5 Wisconsin, 5.5:  17-7
• #37 Illinois, 0.5:  2-2
• #48 Northwestern, 0.3:  1-1
• #51 Iowa, 0.2:  2-2
• #56 Ohio State, 0.1:  11-6
• #57 Michigan State, 0.0:  13-8
• #144 Indiana, -0.6:  6-4
• #146 Nebraska, -0.6:  0-1
• #148 Penn State, -0.6:  0-1
• #153 Minnesota, -0.7:  1-2
• #156 Maryland, -0.8:  3-3
• #182 Purdue, -2.1:  6-6
• ________________

Rutgers is not on the list, I'm pretty sure they haven't been in the tournament in the allotted timeframe.  What this says is that, over the past eight tournaments, Michigan State roughly broke even with expectations based on their seed.  The six teams above them did better than expected.  Michigan did a LOT better while Ohio State did barely better.  The six teams below them did worse than expected.  Purdue did a LOT worse than expected while Indiana did barely worse.