ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions

[ELA]

November 18 Poll

• Alabama (11-0)
• Oklahoma (11-0)
• South Carolina (11-0)
• Georgia (10-1)
• Virginia Tech (10-1)
• Clemson (10-1)
• PENN STATE (10-1)
• MICHIGAN STATE (9-2)
• OHIO STATE (9-2)
• Central Florida (11-0)
• IOWA (10-1)
• Notre Dame (9-2)
• Auburn (9-2)
• Mississippi State (9-2)
• Miami (9-2)
• Oklahoma State (9-2)
• Washington (9-2)
• NC State (9-2)
• Washington State (9-2)
• Florida State (8-3)
• WISCONSIN (8-3)
• Utah (9-2)
• South Florida (10-1)
• MICHIGAN (8-3)
• Florida (8-3)

[medinabuckeye1]

Playoff picture based on ELA's scenario and rankings:

• 11-0 Bama:  last game is vs #13 Auburn then vs #3 USCe in the SECCG.  
• 11-0 Oklahoma:  last game is @ nr WVU then vs either #16 OkSU or nr TCU in the B12CG.  
• 11-0 USCe:  last game is @ #6 Clemson then vs #1 Bama in the SECCG.  
• 10-1 UGA:  last game is vs nr GaTech, no CG.  
• 10-1 VaTech:  last game is vs nr UVA then vs #6 Clemson in the ACCCG.  
• 10-1 Clemson:  last game is vs #3 USCe then vs #5 VaTech in the ACCCG.  
• 10-1 Penn State:  last game is vs nr UMD then vs #11 Iowa in the B1GCG (if they beat Maryland).  
• 9-2 MSU:  last game is vs nr RU.  (In theory they could get to the B1GCG but that would require Maryland winning in Happy Valley).  
• 9-2 tOSU:  last game is vs #24 M.  
• 11-0 UCF:  last game is vs #23 USF then (assuming they win) the Navy/Tulane (both nr) winner in the AACCG.  
• 10-1 Iowa:  last game is vs nr UNL then vs #7 PSU in the B1GCG.  

IMHO all other teams along with #8 MSU, #9 tOSU, and #10 UCF are out of the running.  Thus there are, IMHO, eight serious contenders for the four spots.  Here is what I think they each need:

• Bama:  The Auburn game is essentially an exhibition except that winning it would give Bama a chance even with an SECCG loss where they obviously would not get in coming off of back-to-back losses.  The SECCG is clearly a play-in.  
• Oklahoma:  The WVU game is nothing more than an exhibition.  It makes no difference because Oklahoma would be in as B12 Champ at either 13-0 or 12-1 and probably out as non-Champ at either 12-1 or 11-2.  
• USCe:  Much like Bama and OU, their last game is an exhibition.  They are in with an SEC Championship and out without it regardless of whether they finish 12-1 or 13-0.  
• Georgia:  They mostly need to root for whoever plays OU in the B12CG.  Other than that just generally rooting for upsets (Nebraska over Iowa, etc) would help.  
• VaTech:  At a minimum they need to beat Clemson in the ACCCG but they could still miss the CFP if they first lost to UVA and finished 11-2.  Win their last two and they are in for sure.  
• Clemson:  Clemson would have a MUCH better chance than VaTech with two losses but could still theoretically miss the CFP if they lose to USCe then win the ACCCG.  Win their last two and they are in for sure.  
• Penn State:  If they win out they are in.  If not, they are almost certainly out.  
• MSU's only plausible chance requires Maryland to upset PSU, then the Spartans need to win out to finish 11-2 with a B1G Championship and even that is unlikely to be enough because an 11-1 UGA would get in over an 11-2 MSU so they need help.  
• Ohio State has no plausible shot.  
• UCF has no plausible shot.  
• Iowa is in if they win out.  If not they are out.  

[ELA]

WEEK 13
Tuesday, November 20

• Miami(Ohio) d. Ball State
• Northern Illinois d. Western Michigan

Thanksgiving

• #14 Mississippi State d. Ole Miss

• Air Force d. Colorado State

Friday, November 23

• #2 Oklahoma d. West Virginia
• #5 Virginia Tech d. Virginia
• #10 Central Florida d. #23 South Florida
• #11 IOWA d. NEBRASKA
• #17 Washington d. #19 Washington State

• Buffalo d. Bowling Green
• Cincinnati d. East Carolina
• Kent State d. Eastern Michigan
• Memphis d. Houston
• Missouri d. Arkansas
• Ohio d. Akron
• Oregon d. Oregon State
• South Alabama d. Coastal Carolina
• Texas d. Kansas
• Toledo d. Central Michigan

Saturday, November 24
ESPN College Gameday, live from Clemson, SC
#6 Clemson 34, #3 South Carolina 10

• #1 Alabama d. #13 Auburn
• #4 Georgia d. Georgia Tech
• #7 PENN STATE d. MARYLAND
• #8 MICHIGAN STATE d. RUTGERS
• #9 OHIO STATE d. #24 MICHIGAN
• USC d. #12 Notre Dame
• #15 Miami d. Pittsburgh
• TCU d. #16 Oklahoma State
• #18 NC State d. North Carolina
• #20 Florida State d. #25 Florida
• #21 WISCONSIN d. MINNESOTA
• #22 Utah d. BYU

• Appalachian State d. Troy
• Arizona d. Arizona State
• Arkansas State d. Texas State
• Boise State d. Utah State
• Boston College d. Syracuse
• California d. Colorado
• Duke d. Wake Forest
• Florida Atlantic d. Charlotte
• Fresno State d. San Jose State
• Georgia State d. Georgia Southern
• Iowa State d. Kansas State
• Louisiana Tech d. Western Kentucky
• Louisville d. Kentucky
• Marshall d. FIU
• Middle Tennessee d. UAB
• NM State d. Liberty
• North Texas d. UTSA
• NORTHWESTERN d. ILLINOIS
• PURDUE d. INDIANA
• Rice d. Old Dominion
• San Diego State d. Hawaii
• SMU d. Tulsa
• Southern Miss d. UTEP
• Stanford d. UCLA
• Temple d. Connecticut
• Texas A&M d. LSU
• Texas Tech d. Baylor
• Tulane d. Navy
• UL Monroe d. UL Lafayette
• UNLV d. Nevada
• Vanderbilt d. Tennessee
• Wyoming d. New Mexico

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated playoff picture based on ELA's scenario so far (uses last week's rankings because this week's haven't been posted yet):

• 12-0 Bama:  next vs #3 (but not anymore) USCe in the SECCG.  Bama is obviously in with a win.  If they lose that ends UGA's chances and, at 12-1 they would obviously get in ahead of any other non-Champion.  
• 12-0 Oklahoma:  next vs nr (but not anymore) TCU in the B12CG.  Oklahoma needs to win the B12CG.  With a loss they would have only a slight chance at 12-1 and a non-champion.  
• 11-1 USCe (will obviously not be #3 anymore):  next vs #1 Bama in the SECCG.  USCe is in the CFP win over Bama and out with a loss, simple as that.  
• 11-1 UGA:  regular season complete.  UGA looks good at #4 but they need help because teams behind them will win CG's while all they can do is watch and wait and hope.  
• 11-1 VaTech:  next vs #6 Clemson in the ACCCG.  Like USCe they are in with a win and out with a loss, simple as that.  
• 11-1 Clemson:  next vs #5 VaTech in the ACCCG.  Clemson's blowout win over previously #3 USCe would likely move them up to #3 but it probably doesn't matter.  If they win the ACCCG they are in.  If they lose they are out.  
• 11-1 Penn State:  next vs #11 Iowa in the B1GCG.  Same as USCe and VaTech they are in with a win and out with a loss, simple as that.  
• 10-2 MSU:  regular season complete.  No chance at the CFP.  
• 10-2 tOSU:  regular season complete.  No chance at the CFP.  
• 12-0 UCF:  Only a very minimal chance at the CFP at best.  In theory their win over a ranked opponent should help them but they just beat #23 while the team ahead of them just beat #24 and other teams ahead of them (Bama, Clemson) also beat even higher ranked teams this week.  Worse, in CG weekend while they are playing a four-loss and likely still unranked Tulane team the P5 CG's will likely all feature two ranked teams and all except the B12 and PAC will feature two highly ranked teams.  
• 11-1 Iowa:  next vs #7 PSU in the B1GCG.  Those "goober component" Iowa fans that @iahawk15 was talking about upthread have nothing to fear:  Iowa is in the exact same boat as the rest of the 11-1 P5 CG participants.  Just like USCe, VaTech, Clemson, and Penn State the Hawkeyes are in with a win and out with a loss, simple as that.  

Playoff scenarios:
First off, way back in October 20 when both were unranked, Utah won a home game over USC.  That didn't seem like a big deal at the time but it is now the Pac-S tiebreaker so Washington will play Utah in the PacCG.  The problem for Washington specifically and the PAC in general is that Utah is now 10-2 and their win over a previously 4-7 BYU team will not do much to help their previous #22 ranking much so 10-2 and previously #17 Washington will be playing 10-2 and previously #22 Utah in a game that nobody outside of the PAC will be very interested in.  

Things we know for sure:

• The SEC will have an undefeated or 1-loss Champion:  Either 13-0 Bama or 12-1 USCe.  Either way, the SEC Champion is in.  
• The ACC will have a 1-loss Champion:  Either 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 VaTech.  Either way the ACC Champion is in.  
• The B1G will have a 1-loss Champion:  Either 12-1 Penn State or 12-1 Iowa.  Either way the B1G Champion is in.  

That is three slots that are taken.  The fourth is Oklahoma's to lose so all eyes will be on the B12CG.  If Oklahoma wins they will finish 13-0 and get either the #1 or #2 seed depending on the Bama/USCe outcome.  

If Oklahoma loses it gets interesting.  The plausible candidates would be:

• 12-1 B12CG loser Oklahoma  
• 12-1 SECCG loser Alabama 
• 11-1 Georgia  
• 13-0 UCF (if they beat Tulane)

Everybody else either has two losses (Pac Champ) or has two losses AND is a non-Champion (ACC and B1G losers, USCe if they lose, MSU, tOSU).  

I think that a 12-1 Bama would get the first shot.  If Bama beats USCe then it would be between 12-1 Oklahoma and 11-1 Georgia.  In that case the committee might decide that sending undefeated AAC Champion UCF was less controversial than choosing between two 1-loss non-Champions from different P5 leagues (SEC/B12).  

[medinabuckeye1]

My thoughts on UCF (specifically in this scenario) and non-P5 teams in general wrt the CFP:

First, UCF has one thing going for them and one thing going against them as compared to a typical non-P5 team:

What they have going for them is that they start out ranked.  They are #21 in the preseason AP and #23 in the preseason Coaches Poll and that does help.  A lot of times non-P5 teams start out unranked and even if they go undefeated it takes 2-3 weeks to get into the rankings and another month or more to get any serious traction.  In this scenario UCF starts ranked and heading into their last game before the CG's ELA had them ranked #10 and playing #23 USF so that helps.  

What they have going against them is that their OOC schedule sucks.  Their four OOC opponents are:

• An FCS team (SCST)
• A CUSA team that ELA has finishing 9-3 (FAU)
• An ACC team that ELA has finishing 1-11 (UNC)
• An ACC team that ELA has finishing 3-9 (Pitt)

The problem here is that the two P5 teams that they played finished a combined 4-20.  That, beating a CUSA team, an FCS team, and a bunch of AAC teams just doesn't prove much.  It does help that at least USF was ranked when they played but UCF's win will knock USF out of the rankings and if UCF wins the AACCG that will ensure that Tulane will also finish unranked so UCF's end-of-season record against ranked teams will be 0-0.  No P5 team without any wins over a ranked team would be seriously considered for the CFP and UCF shouldn't be either.  

If you are a non-P5 team and you want a shot at the CFP then, as far as I am concerned you need to schedule some monster OOC match-ups because your conference schedule is NOTHING like those of a P5 team.  

[Cincydawg]

UCF gets some helmet from beating Auburn last year.

Few P5 teams wants to schedule a really good nonP5 team for obvious reasons.  Of course scheduling a team 6-8 years out doesn't give you much clue they could be good.  If your team had scheduled UCF for 2018 in 2012, it would have been a so what.

Boise State has had this issue obviously, few P5s wanted to give them a shot.

Bama got in over them last year and I suspect that would continue.  

[Cincydawg]

I'd add to that the comment that UNC and Pitt likely were considered "up and coming" teams when UCF signed to play them.

[ELA]

Yeah, the issue isn't effort, it's that Pitt and UNC aren't any good right now.  Obviously I have both on the low end of possible outcomes, so it's likely both will be better than this, but I think both would have to overachieve just to get bowl eligible in the best conference in the country right now.  I actually think this could be a solid Pitt team, and put them in the ACC of a few years ago, they could go 8-4 or 9-3 depending on schedule, but the league is SO deep right now.  I think UNC is a dumpster fire though.

Flip side, is I doubt UCF figured FAU would be the best they've ever been when they were put on the schedule.

[Cincydawg]

You schedule programs, not teams.  Whoever scheduled Texas in 2010 to play in 2015-6 caught a break.  Same with Tennessee et al.

Whoever scheduled Michigan State or Washington didn't.

[ELA]

You schedule programs, not teams.  Whoever scheduled Texas in 2010 to play in 2015-6 caught a break.  Same with Tennessee et al.

Whoever scheduled Michigan State or Washington didn't.

That's why backing out is an option
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/09/26/alabama-michigan-state-football-series-off/2877807/

[medinabuckeye1]

Replying to @ELA and @Cincydawg :

I agree that you schedule programs not teams and UCF took a big hit there because UNC and Pitt are both at the low end of their usual result in this scenario.  

That is somewhat compensated for by the fact that, as ELA pointed out, their other OOC FBS opponent (FAU) is about as good as could be hoped for.  

That said, scheduling an FCS opponent is bad enough when you are an SEC team, it is even worse when you are an AAC team because an AAC team doesn't have a tough conference schedule to make up for it.  In this scenario it appears that UCF's toughest opponents are:

• USF
• FAU
• Pitt? or Tulane

Realistically, for any CFP contender beyond that it simply doesn't matter.  Any of them along with tOSU, MSU, and a number of other quality teams would EASILY beat the rest of UCF opponents.  Every other contender will have easily played at least six teams tougher than UCF's third toughest opponent.  The schedules simply are not comparable.  

Finally, we've had this debate before but I will reiterate my belief that teams should be judged based on who they played not based on who they tried to play:

• My team has TCU this year.  If TCU ends up going 0-12 this year, Ohio State should not get "extra credit" because they thought TCU would be better than that.  
• Similarly, my team has OrSU this year.  If OrSU goes 13-0 this year, Ohio State should not be "docked" CFP points because they were only trying to play a middling-to-bad PAC team not the PAC Champion.  

This isn't 5 year old T-ball, we shouldn't be grading based on effort.  

[ELA]

ACC
ATLANTIC

• Clemson (7-1) 11-1
• NC State (6-2) 10-2
• Florida State (6-2) 9-3
• Louisville (4-4) 7-5
• Boston College (3-5) 7-5
• Wake Forest (3-5) 6-6
• Syracuse (2-6) 5-7

COASTAL

• Virginia Tech (7-1) 11-1
• Miami (6-2) 10-2
• Duke (4-4) 7-5
• Georgia Tech (4-4) 7-5
• Virginia (2-6) 5-7
• Pittsburgh (2-6) 3-9
• North Carolina (0-8) 1-11

BIG TEN
EAST

• Penn State (8-1) 11-1
• Michigan State (8-1) 10-2
• Ohio State (7-2) 10-2
• Michigan (6-3) 8-4
• Maryland (3-6) 5-7
• Indiana (2-7) 5-7
• Rutgers (1-8) 4-8

WEST

• Iowa (8-1) 11-1
• Wisconsin (6-3) 9-3
• Northwestern (5-4) 8-4
• Purdue (5-4) 7-5
• Nebraska (2-7) 5-7
• Minnesota (2-7) 4-8
• Illinois (0-9) 2-10

BIG XII

• Oklahoma (9-0) 12-0
• TCU (7-2) 9-3
• Oklahoma State (6-3) 9-3
• Kansas State (5-4) 8-4
• Texas (5-4) 8-4
• Iowa State (5-4) 7-5
• West Virginia (4-5) 6-6
• Texas Tech (3-6) 6-6
• Baylor (1-8) 2-10
• Kansas (0-9) 1-11

PAC 12
NORTH

• Washington (8-1) 10-2
• Washington State (6-3) 9-3
• Stanford (6-3) 8-4
• Oregon (5-4) 8-4
• California (3-6) 6-6
• Oregon State (0-9) 1-11

SOUTH

• Utah (7-2) 10-2
• USC (7-2) 9-3
• Arizona (6-3) 9-3
• Arizona State (4-5) 6-6
• Colorado (2-7) 4-8
• UCLA (0-9) 1-11

SEC
EAST

• South Carolina (8-0) 11-1
• Georgia (7-1) 11-1
• Florida (5-3) 8-4
• Missouri (4-4) 7-5
• Kentucky (2-6) 5-7
• Vanderbilt (1-7) 4-8
• Tennessee (0-8) 3-9

WEST

• Alabama (8-0) 12-0
• Mississippi State (7-1) 10-2
• Auburn (5-3) 9-3
• Texas A&M (4-4) 7-5
• LSU (2-6) 5-7
• Ole Miss (2-6) 5-7
• Arkansas (1-7) 5-7

AMERICAN
EAST

• Central Florida (8-0) 12-0
• South Florida (7-1) 10-2
• Temple (4-4) 6-6
• East Carolina (1-7) 4-8
• Connecticut (1-7) 3-9
• Cincinnati (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Tulane (6-2) 8-4
• Memphis (5-3) 8-4
• Navy (5-3) 8-4
• SMU (5-3) 6-6
• Houston (4-4) 6-6
• Tulsa (1-7) 3-9

CONFERENCE USA
EAST

• Florida Atlantic (7-1) 9-3
• Marshall (7-1) 8-4
• Middle Tennessee (6-2) 7-5
• Western Kentucky (3-5) 4-8
• FIU (2-6) 4-8
• Charlotte (2-6) 3-9
• Old Dominion (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• North Texas (7-1) 10-2
• UAB (6-2) 8-4
• Louisiana Tech (6-2) 7-5
• Southern Miss (4-4) 6-6
• Rice (3-5) 4-9
• UTSA (2-6) 4-8
• UTEP (0-8) 2-10

MAC
EAST

• Buffalo (6-2) 7-5
• Ohio (5-3) 8-4
• Miami(Ohio) (5-3) 7-5
• Akron (3-5) 4-8
• Kent State (2-6) 3-9
• Bowling Green (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Northern Illinois (8-0) 9-3
• Toledo (7-1) 9-3
• Western Michigan (4-4) 6-6
• Central Michigan (3-5) 5-7
• Eastern Michigan (3-5) 4-8
• Ball State (1-7) 3-9

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

• Boise State (8-0) 11-1
• Utah State (6-2) 8-4
• Wyoming (5-3) 7-5
• Air Force (3-5) 4-8
• Colorado State (3-5) 4-8
• New Mexico (0-8) 2-10

WEST

• Fresno State (7-1) 11-1
• San Diego State (6-2) 9-3
• UNLV (4-4) 6-6
• Nevada (3-5) 5-7
• San Jose State (3-5) 4-8
• Hawaii (0-8) 2-11

SUN BELT
EAST

• Appalachian State (7-1) 10-2
• Troy (6-2) 8-4
• Georgia State (4-4) 5-7
• Georgia Southern (2-6) 4-8
• Coastal Carolina (0-8) 2-10

WEST

• Arkansas State (8-0) 10-2
• South Alabama (4-4) 6-6
• UL Monroe (4-4) 5-7
• UL Lafayette (3-5) 5-7
• Texas State (2-6) 3-9

INDEPENDENTS

• Army (9-2)
• Notre Dame (9-3)
• NM State (6-6)
• Massachusetts (5-7)
• BYU (4-8)
• Liberty (3-9)

[betarhoalphadelta]

If Purdue finishes 7-5 (5-4), I'll be pleased.

[Anonymous Coward]

If Michigan finishes 8-4, fans will be riotous. Not that Harbaugh would be on the hot seat, but for the first time most fans would feel he's underachieved. Last year, it made sense. They were bar none the youngest in the nation, predicted to finish 9-3, and then lost their top 2 quarterbacks to injury. In that setting, finishing with 8 wins was painful but made every kind of sense. 
Not this season.