the basis of my prediction is all about the matchups. Texas seemingly wants to play balanced. I don't mean in offensive play calling as much as i mean equal share of clock between o and d. they seemingly want to play field position. they seemingly want to slow the game into their rhythm and to their strengths.
oSu makes a living out of taking teams out of their comfort zone. they do this by wicked fast attacks threatening the entire field from the center snapper to the outs, and from there to the back corners and anything in between. it seems reckless and playing on the verge of control, and if successful it can get them a few scores up and force their opponents to play a game they don't want to play- because it's exceeding their comfortable rhythm. it also does something else, too, and personally i think it is the crux to busting gundy's approach: it finds the mismatch, if there is one, with a quickness... gundy seems to discover and use the mismatch better than most- he doesn't "over use" it- he uses it just enough to keep his opponent from loading up on it- and if they do load up on defending the discovered mismatch, he makes them pay for it by drilling the shifted defender's responsibility. yeah- this is nothing different than most any team tries to do, but Gundy teams do it effectively and quickly.
Teams like bama don't care what you got- their game is to lean on you 60 minutes with constantly fresh players- and start having their way with you after 40 minutes or so... Teams like Clemson blitz you and break your pocket passing mechanisms- forcing you to adjust- w/o that, they are manageable- it's easier said than done. Teams like GT and oSu go 'all in' on the gamble they can disrupt your plan- GT obviously does it by attempting to own the clock and keeping your defense on the field- never allowing your O to find a groove... oSu does it by blitzkrieg- sudden and atrocious assault all over the field finding the mismatch as quickly as possible and then striking it only enough to keep the game moving at the pace they dictate.
if you can play mano-a-mano effectively with oSu, they aren't the juggernaut they pretend to be. if you've got a bad match, Gundy will find it by mid way through the first if it wasn't found while scouting (where other tactics/methods take full halves to find, and usually after collusion over the break). Gundy flash attacks with simple intent to find the mismatch- that is his whole basis of formula to win....if that can be halted, so can oSu. if (when) he finds the mismatch, he toys with it to see how the defender's respond- and that will determine how often he'll exploit it. this isn't that much different than a lot of fast-strike teams, it's just that he is pretty dang good at it when he has the right tools at his disposal, which he seems to this season, and that he doesn't over use it too early.
I just don't think Texas has the ponies to go mano-a-mano with oSu's this season. and.... I don't think they'll be able to sprint with them once oSu opens the gap. just my opinion... and it's about match-up... if it's any consolation, i'm thinking a team like texas would do a lot better against a team like bama than oSu would- because of the same match-ups.
