CFP race heading into week 12 - Nine teams for four spots

[medinabuckeye1]

By current CFP rankings:

• #1, 10-0 Bama, vsCitadel, vsAubie, SECCG vs #5 UGA:  Controls their own destiny and could easily afford a loss to either the Citadel (yeah right) or Auburn.  If they win the SECCG at either 13-0 or 12-1 they are obviously in.  The only real question here is what happens if they lose the SECCG to finish 12-1?  
• #2, 10-0 Clemson, vsDook, vsUSCe, ACCCG (probably vs nr Pitt):  Controls their own destiny and could probably afford a loss to either Dook or USCe.  If they win the ACCCG at either 13-0 or 12-1 they are almost certainly in.  The question is what happens if the lose the ACCCG to finish 12-1?  
• #3, 10-0 Notre Dame, vs #12 Cuse, @USC:  Controls their own destiny.  They are 100% in at 12-0 but nearly hopeless at 11-1 or worse.  
• #4, 9-1 Michigan, vsIU, @ #10 tOSU, B1GCG vs #22 NU (assuming they beat tOSU):  Probably in if they win out but things could get hairy especially if Bama loses close to UGA in the SECCG and/or if Oklahoma looks dominating in their last three games.  
• #5, 9-1 Georgia, vsUMASS, vsGaTech, SECCG vs #1 Bama:  Controls their own destiny.  They almost have to beat Bama to get in because a 2-loss non-champion would need all kinds of help.  That is a tall order obviously, but if they do it (after beating UMASS and GaTech) then they are obviously in.  
• #6, 9-1 Oklahoma, vsKU, @ #9 WVU, B12CG (assuming they get there, probably vs WVU or ISU):  The Sooners look like the "first team out" right now and I'm not sure they can move up without some help.  
• #8, 9-1 Washington State, vsZona, vs #18 UW, P12CG (assuming they get there, probably vs #19 Utah or ASU):  The Cougars need help.  Their OOC of Wyoming, SJSU, and Eastern Washington impresses nobody and even if they win out there is no guarantee that their P12CG opponent will be ranked.  That said, it is far from impossible for M, tOSU, OU, and WVU to all lose and if they do then a 12-1 P12 Champion Washington State would probably be in.  
• #9, 8-1 West Virginia, @OkSU, vs #6 OU, B12CG (assuming they get there, probably vs OU or Texas):  I think that #9 WVU and #6 OU are essentially interchangeable because if they beat Oklahoma in Morgantown on the Friday after Thanksgiving they will move ahead of #7 LSU and #8 WSU.  
• #10, 9-1 Ohio State, @UMD, vs #4 M, B1GCG vs #22 NU (assuming they win the previous two):  Beating #4 would obviously be impressive but I do not know whether or not it would be impressive enough to leapfrog the Buckeyes over the OU/WVU 6/9 winner.  In any case I am not sure that it matters because the very next week the WVU/OU winner would likely be playing a MUCH higher ranked team than Ohio State anyway.  Thus, I think the Buckeyes need help.  I'm confident that a 12-1 B1G Champion Ohio State would finish ahead of any possible P12 Champion but doubtful that they would finish ahead of a 1-loss B12 Champion.  

The Worldwide Leader's "Eliminator"
The Worldwide Leader's "Eliminator" included 8-2 LSU for a total of 10 teams still in contention.  I suppose that is mathematically possible but IMHO, it is not plausible.  I think the nine teams that I listed above are the only teams with a plausible CFP chance.  I would group them as follows:

Win out and in without any debate:

• Bama
• Clemson
• Notre Dame
• Georgia

Win out and almost certainly in:

• Michigan

Win out and would be VERY close but would need to be VERY dominating and/or get help:

• Oklahoma
• West Virginia

Still in the running but needing all kinds of help:

• Washington State
• Ohio State

One problem for tOSU/M is that Northwestern isn't going to be a high profile CG opponent.  They are 6-4 and have already clinched the B1G-W's CG berth so they will arrive in Indy at 8-4, 7-5, or GASP! 6-6.  They are currently #22 in the CFP rankings while the top four teams in the B12 are #6, #9, #15, and #16.  On top of that, the B12 effectively has "insurance" against a team tanking because if one of those four finishes 0-2 they will fall out of the B12CG race and become a non-factor where in the B1G Northwestern has already clinched.  

[Anonymous Coward]

In terms of current 1-loss comparisons ("if M doesn't lose"), OU has very little chance of repairing its reputation enough to even make it a debate. Maybe if their defense of all units somehow held WVU under 20. But the odds of that approximate the odds that Petrino will be tinkering with his leaf blower this weekend, accidentally make a Small Hadron Collider, twist the gears incorrectly, generate a black hole and - fffffFFFFFFFFFfwooop - no Earth.
So probably not 10%.

[Anonymous Coward]

I wish we had OU fans here to read all of our jokes about their defense. That's occurred to me a lot lately.

[medinabuckeye1]

In terms of current 1-loss comparisons ("if M doesn't lose"), OU has very little chance of repairing its reputation enough to even make it a debate. Maybe if their defense of all units somehow held WVU under 20. But the odds of that approximate the odds that Petrino will be tinkering with his leaf blower this weekend, accidentally make a Small Hadron Collider, twist the gears incorrectly, generate a black hole and - fffffFFFFFFFFFfwooop - no Earth.
So probably not 10%.

Hopefully Notre Dame will lose to Syracuse this weekend.  That would really open things up.  

[Kris60]

By current CFP rankings:

• #1, 10-0 Bama, vsCitadel, vsAubie, SECCG vs #5 UGA:  Controls their own destiny and could easily afford a loss to either the Citadel (yeah right) or Auburn.  If they win the SECCG at either 13-0 or 12-1 they are obviously in.  The only real question here is what happens if they lose the SECCG to finish 12-1?  
• #2, 10-0 Clemson, vsDook, vsUSCe, ACCCG (probably vs nr Pitt):  Controls their own destiny and could probably afford a loss to either Dook or USCe.  If they win the ACCCG at either 13-0 or 12-1 they are almost certainly in.  The question is what happens if the lose the ACCCG to finish 12-1?  
• #3, 10-0 Notre Dame, vs #12 Cuse, @USC:  Controls their own destiny.  They are 100% in at 12-0 but nearly hopeless at 11-1 or worse.  
• #4, 9-1 Michigan, vsIU, @ #10 tOSU, B1GCG vs #22 NU (assuming they beat tOSU):  Probably in if they win out but things could get hairy especially if Bama loses close to UGA in the SECCG and/or if Oklahoma looks dominating in their last three games.  
• #5, 9-1 Georgia, vsUMASS, vsGaTech, SECCG vs #1 Bama:  Controls their own destiny.  They almost have to beat Bama to get in because a 2-loss non-champion would need all kinds of help.  That is a tall order obviously, but if they do it (after beating UMASS and GaTech) then they are obviously in.  
• #6, 9-1 Oklahoma, vsKU, @ #9 WVU, B12CG (assuming they get there, probably vs WVU or ISU):  The Sooners look like the "first team out" right now and I'm not sure they can move up without some help.  
• #8, 9-1 Washington State, vsZona, vs #18 UW, P12CG (assuming they get there, probably vs #19 Utah or ASU):  The Cougars need help.  Their OOC of Wyoming, SJSU, and Eastern Washington impresses nobody and even if they win out there is no guarantee that their P12CG opponent will be ranked.  That said, it is far from impossible for M, tOSU, OU, and WVU to all lose and if they do then a 12-1 P12 Champion Washington State would probably be in.  
• #9, 8-1 West Virginia, @OkSU, vs #6 OU, B12CG (assuming they get there, probably vs OU or Texas):  I think that #9 WVU and #6 OU are essentially interchangeable because if they beat Oklahoma in Morgantown on the Friday after Thanksgiving they will move ahead of #7 LSU and #8 WSU.  
• #10, 9-1 Ohio State, @UMD, vs #4 M, B1GCG vs #22 NU (assuming they win the previous two):  Beating #4 would obviously be impressive but I do not know whether or not it would be impressive enough to leapfrog the Buckeyes over the OU/WVU 6/9 winner.  In any case I am not sure that it matters because the very next week the WVU/OU winner would likely be playing a MUCH higher ranked team than Ohio State anyway.  Thus, I think the Buckeyes need help.  I'm confident that a 12-1 B1G Champion Ohio State would finish ahead of any possible P12 Champion but doubtful that they would finish ahead of a 1-loss B12 Champion.  

The Worldwide Leader's "Eliminator"
The Worldwide Leader's "Eliminator" included 8-2 LSU for a total of 10 teams still in contention.  I suppose that is mathematically possible but IMHO, it is not plausible.  I think the nine teams that I listed above are the only teams with a plausible CFP chance.  I would group them as follows:

Win out and in without any debate:

• Bama
• Clemson
• Notre Dame
• Georgia

Win out and almost certainly in:

• Michigan

Win out and would be VERY close but would need to be VERY dominating and/or get help:

• Oklahoma
• West Virginia

Still in the running but needing all kinds of help:

• Washington State
• Ohio State

One problem for tOSU/M is that Northwestern isn't going to be a high profile CG opponent.  They are 6-4 and have already clinched the B1G-W's CG berth so they will arrive in Indy at 8-4, 7-5, or GASP! 6-6.  They are currently #22 in the CFP rankings while the top four teams in the B12 are #6, #9, #15, and #16.  On top of that, the B12 effectively has "insurance" against a team tanking because if one of those four finishes 0-2 they will fall out of the B12CG race and become a non-factor where in the B1G Northwestern has already clinched.  

I think you are the first person I’ve heard say that if WVU and Ohio St win out WVU would probably be in over them.
I kinda think that helmet bias Utee talks about might creep in.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think you are the first person I’ve heard say that if WVU and Ohio St win out WVU would probably be in over them.
I kinda think that helmet bias Utee talks about might creep in.

First, we have yet to see concrete evidence of helmet bias in the committee's CFP inclusion and until we do I will assume that we will not.  
As to this hypothetical:

• Assume both win out, and
• For the sake of simplicity also assume that Bama, Clemson, and Notre Dame win out and that the P12 Champion has at least two losses.  

Obviously the top three would be Bama, Clemson, and Notre Dame in that order and the fourth spot would be between Ohio State and West Virginia without any other serious contenders for the final playoff spot.  

The losses:
West Virginia's was a 16 point loss on the road to a (currently) 6-3 and #16 Iowa State team.  The Mountaineers were outgained on the ground 244-52 and through the air 254-100 in that game.  

Ohio State's was a 29 point loss on the road to a (currently) 5-5 Purdue team.  The Buckeyes were outgained on the ground 161-76 but outgained the Boilermakers 470-378 through the air.  

This favors West Virginia but probably not by much and I'm not sure that it maters anyway.  The committee doesn't seem to care much about "bad losses" so I'm really not sure that it matters at all.  Also, one could argue that even though the Ohio State loss score was more lopsided the West Virginia loss game was more lopsided

Wins over currently ranked teams and teams that could realistically be ranked by the end of the year:
West Virginia:

• #6 Oklahoma at home TBD.  
• #15 Texas on the road by a point.  
• nr 5-5 Baylor could conceivably finish ranked if they win out (vTCU, vTxTech).  
• nr 5-5 TxTech could conceivably finish ranked if they win out (@KSU, vBaylor).  
• B12CG opponent.  This team would finish with at least three losses.  

Obviously the third and fourth are mutually exclusive so WVU would finish with no more than four wins over ranked teams.  

Ohio State:

• #4 Michigan at home, TBD.  
• #14 Penn State on the road by a point.  
• #22 Northwestern in the B1GCG, TBD.  
• nr 6-4 Michigan State could conceivably finish ranked if they win out (@UNL, vRU).  
• nr 5-5 Indiana would finish ranked if they won out (@M, vPU) but that would be bad for Ohio State because it would diminish both their best win and their loss.  

Ohio State could finish with no more than four wins over ranked teams but it could be as few as one (if PSU loses to Maryland and Northwestern loses again before the B1GCG and MSU loses to UNL).  

I think that at this point it is WAY to close to call.  WVU's two wins over OU would help them a lot especially because while WVU was beating a very good OU team in the B12CG Ohio State could be beating a 6-6 Wildcat squad in the B1GCG.  The flip side of that is that WVU most likely has to beat OU twice which would give OU three losses and make WVU's best win not as good as Ohio State's win over a 10-2 Michigan.  

Right now the one point wins over #14/#15 PSU/TX are nearly identical on paper but that could change down the stretch if one of them goes 2-0 while the other goes 0-2.  

I think it is a lot more likely that MSU will finish ranked than it is that the Baylor/TxTech winner will finish ranked and that would obviously help Ohio State's case.  

Bottom line, it is too early to tell.  In a best case scenario for WVU they would have a much stronger case than Ohio State but in a best case scenario for the Buckeyes they would have a much stronger case than the Mountaineers.  

Best case scenario for WVU (within this hypothetical):

• Texas wins out and beats OU for the B12CG slot.  WVU thus finishes with wins over 10-2 OU and twice over 9-4 Texas.  
• Northwestern tanks and loses to both MN and IL such that they hit Indy at 6-6.  
• MSU loses to Nebraska and finishes unranked.  

[OrangeAfroMan]

WV > OSU, theoretically, if both win out, because 2 consecutive wins over OU > a win over M and NU.



I don't think Clemson can lose and still make it.  If they lose and M and/or UGA and/or WV/OU win out, Clemson is left out.

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't think Clemson can lose and still make it.  If they lose and M and/or UGA and/or WV/OU win out, Clemson is left out.

I agree, if Clemson loses the ACCCG, however if they were to lose to either Duke or USCe then win the ACCCG, I think they are still likely top-4.

[Temp430]

If Michigan wins out could they opt to go to the Rose Bowl instead of the CFP?  That would be my imaginary preference.

[TyphonInc]

I think LSU's ranking is the cut off line. In the CFP's "mind" there are only 7 teams in consideration right now. I'm not saying WSU or OSU can't rise above that threshold, but I don't think the committee is running scenarios that include Washington State or Ohio State.

Medina also stated that they don't knock for "bad losses". I agree with a caveat, I don't think they penalize a team for losing to a bad team, but I totally think they knock you down for losing badly to a team. Evidence: See OSU the last 2 years. 

[Cincydawg]

If Michigan wins out could they opt to go to the Rose Bowl instead of the CFP?  That would be my imaginary preference.

I don't think they would have an option, other than perhaps to stay home.

[TyphonInc]

If Michigan wins out could they opt to go to the Rose Bowl instead of the CFP?  That would be my imaginary preference.

This was a legitimate question in the early part of the BCS when the Rose Bowl pay out was higher than the BCS payout. But in 2002 there was discussion of OSU going to the Rose Bowl instead of the BCS for the Money, BCS execs quietly rewrote the conditions so that the Rose Bowl paid the pay out difference to the BCS guaranteeing that the title game paid out at least as much as the Rose. 

[Cincydawg]

One "Upset Saturday" and all this gets turned downside up.

Even a couple of upsets would shake things up with 2-3 games left before the final decision.

Clemson appears to be least likely to get upset.

[ELA]

If Michigan wins out could they opt to go to the Rose Bowl instead of the CFP?  That would be my imaginary preference.

You could throw the Indiana game, then beat OSU