~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[847badgerfan]

Well less of a defense than a gut feeling, which I qualified by pointing out why my gut feeling is built on a foundation of sand.

I'd imagine the programs that would be the most itchy would be the ones that have been killing it in recruiting the last few years. Particularly if there is some sort of an Adidas connection.

Sand is a great base for construction.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Did I say sand? Because I meant quicksand. 

Nobody in the history of the universe is worse at cheating than Jim 0'Brien. But he still did it. 

[ELA]

Well less of a defense than a gut feeling, which I qualified by pointing out why my gut feeling is built on a foundation of sand.

I'd imagine the programs that would be the most itchy would be the ones that have been killing it in recruiting the last few years. Particularly if there is some sort of an Adidas connection.

Why everyone should feel a little queasy is the question of player/shoe company type deals that didn't even necessarily happen to the benefit of any school, but still would have made that player ineligible.  My guess is that is how the bulk of the schools are going to be "involved".  There might be a lot of cases where the coaches legitimately knew nothing.  I don't think we are going to see a ton of cases like Louisville/Bowen.

[ELA]

This conference will never take regular season conference championship championships lightly, but this one has a little less oomph.  Probably somewhat the ESPN article, although that's not really getting much traction, but a lot the blah year for the Big Ten, mixed with MSUs schedule.  Not a lot of big games.  Purdue obviously.  UM, yeah, bit it was a noon game, they lost.  OSU and Nebraska rounded out the top 5 and both were so early (Nebraska was one of the December games) that nobody realized they were big games at the time.  Purdue, and sort of Michigan, are the only games since that early December game against a then top 5 Notre Dame, that had that big game feel.

Team has plenty inside, getting good Winston/Langford is the difference between being a second weekend team and a third weekend team.  I think I'd make them the favorite next weekend in NYC due to depth.  I think Purdue has the better starting 5, but if MSU can seal the top seed, they would get either a Nebraska team they crushed or UM playing a third game in 3 days on Saturday, followed by a title game against a slight fest Purdue-OSU winner.  Those weekend games should be awesome.  The lead up?  Not so much.

[medinabuckeye1]

Purdue has been eliminated from the race for the top seed in the BTT because they would lose a tie with MSU and/or tOSU.  

Michigan State has clinched one of the top two seeds in the BTT (because they would win a tie with Purdue and they can do no worse than a three-way tie for first).  The Spartans get the #1 seed unless they lose their last game (@UW) AND Ohio State wins theirs (@IU).  

Nebraska gets the final double-bye unless:

• They lose their last game (vPSU), and
• Michigan wins out (@PSU, @UMD)

Seeds:

• MSU or tOSU
• MSU, tOSU, or PU
• tOSU or PU
• UNL or M
• UNL, M or PSU
• M, PSU, or IU

[ELA]

Which is why seeding is so unimportant.  Generally based on scheduling flukes.  Would anyone rather get the 2 seed and face a 7 seed PSU right now than get the 3 and face #6 Indiana?

[Brutus Buckeye]

When was the last time there was an OSU/UM championship game in any sport?

I remember 2006 football being the de-facto Big Ten championship game but not since, I don't believe.

Last Spring (2017) OSU defeated Michigan in the CCGs for both Men's and Women's Tennis. 

[847badgerfan]

It's always good to have something to cling to.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Yeah, the Big Ten Ccg win in Football was okay I suppose, but those Tennis Titles were the cat's pajamas. 

Yeesh, that's what I get for digging up the answer to an obscure trivia question that was posed on a message board. 

[847badgerfan]

Hah!

[medinabuckeye1]

Which is why seeding is so unimportant.  Generally based on scheduling flukes.  Would anyone rather get the 2 seed and face a 7 seed PSU right now than get the 3 and face #6 Indiana?

I wouldn't say "unimportant", just that it isn't necessarily an advantage to be seeded higher.  The IU/PSU example that you used here is a great one.  I was thinking that when I typed up the most recent projections that have #2 Purdue likely facing red hot Penn State on Friday while #3 Ohio State likely gets Indiana.  I would DEFINITELY consider that an advantage for Ohio State.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue (-2):  The Boilermakers's two upset losses were at home to Ohio State and at Wisconsin.  Both would be upsets even if we
demoted Purdue so these just fall in the category of "it happens".  

Michigan (+2):  One of Michigan's upsets (@MSU) would be an upset no matter what.  The other (@UW) would not be an upset if we promoted Michigan.  There are six potential games in which there is a difference between tier-2 and tier-3 (home games against the two tier-1 teams and road games against the four tier-4 teams).  Of those:

• Michigan does not play four (vMSU, vPU, @IU, @MN)
• Michigan won one (@UW)
• Michigan lost one (@NU)

Michigan did play vPU, and Purdue won that game. They played home/away and Purdue won both.
If you promote Michigan, that reduces Purdue's variance to -1 (-2 for the losses to OSU/Wisconsin, +1 for @UM). However that would give Michigan an extra -1 on their variance due to the loss vPU.

[betarhoalphadelta]

I wouldn't say "unimportant", just that it isn't necessarily an advantage to be seeded higher.  The IU/PSU example that you used here is a great one.  I was thinking that when I typed up the most recent projections that have #2 Purdue likely facing red hot Penn State on Friday while #3 Ohio State likely gets Indiana.  I would DEFINITELY consider that an advantage for Ohio State.  

Tough to say, really. Purdue and Indiana are rivals and only played once, with Purdue winning. You think Indiana wouldn't come out with extra motivation to try to not only get revenge but knock Purdue out?
The truth is that Purdue didn't have any good options. 1 seed? Possibly playing Michigan, a matchup nightmare for us due to Wagner. 2 seed? Red-hot PSU. 3 seed? Rivalry/revenge game against Indiana. 
A 1 seed and then having Michigan lose so we could face Nebraska or someone else would have been ideal, but that ship has sailed. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Penn State/Michigan is an interesting game tonight.  

The Wolverines might already be there, but a win tonight on the road would make them a lock if they are not already.  

Penn State has been playing very well lately and Lunardi now has them as the first team among the "Next Four Out" but their RPI is still only up to #75.  A win tonight would also ensure the Nittany Lions of a better than .500 B1G record which would obviously help.  Penn State might be able to get in even with a loss tonight but it would require some impressive win in the BTT at MSG in NYC.  The much easier path is to win tonight and win in Lincoln this weekend.  Even winning both wouldn't make PSU a "lock" heading into the BTT but it would clearly put them on the bubble.  

A Penn State win tonight would also clinch the #4 seed for the Cornhuskers thus making them the first B1G team to lock down their seed (they can't get  the #3 seed because they would lose a tie with Purdue).  A Michigan win tonight would keep the Wolverines in the running for the final double-bye.