ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions

[medinabuckeye1]

Yeah, and the committee has said that conference titles are a data point, and a data point they don't consider until actually earned.  Meaning PSU being 1st in the Big Ten vs. Georgia being 3rd in the SEC was irrelevant until Penn State actually won the conference, which they now have.

I agree with the consensus.  I think it is pretty clear from past experience that the committee's choice, at least barring something extraordinary will be:

• All undefeated P5 Champions (in this case Bama and OU)
• All 1-loss P5 Champions (in this case Clemson and PSU)
• All 1-loss non-Champion P5 schools (at least assuming quality SoS)

I'm assuming that this pattern would continue if necessary such that #4 would be 2-loss P5 Champions and #5 would be 2-loss P5 non-Champions if we ever got to that point.  

The one plausible exception would be if there was a MAJOR difference in SOS favoring a group #3 team over a group #2 team.  In this case it appears that SoS favors PSU's (in part due to the CG).  Additionally, PSU has a 1/2 game edge in standings (again because of the CG).  

Georgia's ranked opponents (per ELA's final poll):

• #6 USCe
• #17 Auburn

Penn State's ranked opponents (per ELA's final poll):

• #8 MSU
• #9 tOSU
• #13 Iowa
• #13 Iowa
• #19 Wisconsin

The biggest argument in UGA's favor is that they lost to a much better team.  Per ELA's final rankings UGA lost to #6 USCe while Penn State lost to unranked Michigan.  However, Michigan isn't terrible in ELA's scenario.  They finished 8-4 on a VERY difficult schedule with road losses to #8 MSU, #9 tOSU, #18 Notre Dame, and unranked (but decent and 8-4) Northwestern.  

Georgia has a better loss but Penn State has five wins over ranked teams compared to Georgia's one and four of Penn State's wins are over teams better than any team Georgia beat while a fifth is comparable to Georgia's best win (#17 9-3 Auburn ~ #19 9-3 Wisconsin).  Furthermore, the committee has shown us repeatedly that "bad losses" aren't really a thing anymore or at least that they aren't NEARLY as important as "Good wins" and Penn State is clearly superior to Georgia in "Good wins".  

I agree with others in this thread.  Penn State would pretty obviously be the fourth CFP participant and there wouldn't be a lot of controversy about that outside of Athens and maybe a few SEC kool-aid drinkers.  

[ELA]

Bowl Schedule

DECEMBER 15
NEW MEXICO		Fresno State (11-2) vs. Florida Atlantic (10-3)
CURE		Southern Miss (6-6) vs. NM State (6-6)
LAS VEGAS		Stanford (8-4) vs. Boise State (12-1)
CAMELLIA		Appalachian State (11-2) vs. Ohio (8-4)
NEW ORLEANS		Louisiana Tech (7-5) vs. South Alabama (6-6)
	.
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATON		UAB (8-4) vs. Temple (6-6)
	.
DECEMBER 19
FRISCO		Houston (6-6) vs. UNLV (6-6)
	.
DECEMBER 20
GASPARILLA		Boston College (7-5) vs. SMU (6-6)
	.
DECEMBER 21
BAHAMAS		Marshall (8-4) vs. Miami(Ohio) (7-5)
POTATO		San Diego State (9-3) vs. Toledo (9-3)
	.
DECEMBER 22
BIRMINGHAM		Army (10-2) vs. Tulane (8-5)
ARMED FORCES		Iowa State (7-5) vs. Memphis (8-4)
DOLLAR GENERAL		Troy (8-4) vs. Buffalo (7-6)
HAWAII		North Texas (10-3) vs. Utah State (8-4)
	.
DECEMBER 26
FIRST RESPONDER		Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (6-6)
QUICK LANE		Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3)
CHEEZ-IT		Oregon (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)
	.
DECEMBER 27
INDEPENDENCE		Louisville (7-5) vs. South Florida (10-2)
PINSTRIPE		#18 Notre Dame (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
SAN FRANCISCO		#24 Washington State (9-3) vs. NORTHWESTERN (8-4)
TEXAS		Kansas State (8-4) vs. Arizona State (6-6)
	.
DECEMBER 28
MUSIC CITY		#19 WISCONSIN (9-3) vs. LSU (5-7)
CAMPING WORLD		#14 Miami (10-2) vs. Texas (8-4)
ALAMO		#21 USC (9-3) vs. #23 Oklahoma State (9-3)
HOLIDAY		#20 Utah (10-3) vs. MICHIGAN (8-4)
	.
DECEMBER 29
BELK		#16 Florida State (9-3) vs. Missouri (7-5)
PEACH		#7 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #9 OHIO STATE (10-2)
ORANGE		#2 Oklahoma (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (12-1)
COTTON		#1 Alabama (13-0) vs. #4 PENN STATE (12-1)
ARIZONA		Arkansas State (10-3) vs. Wyoming (7-5)
	.
DECEMBER 31
MILITARY		Duke (7-5) vs. Navy (8-5)
SUN		#25 Arizona (9-3) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
LIBERTY		Texas A&M (7-5) vs. West Virginia (6-6)
GATOR		#13 NC State (10-2) vs. Florida (8-4)
	.
JANUARY 1
OUTBACK		#17 Auburn (9-3) vs. PURDUE (7-5)
CITRUS		#12 Mississippi State (10-2) vs. #13 IOWA (11-2)
FIESTA		#6 South Carolina (11-2) vs. #10 Central Florida (13-0)
ROSE		#8 MICHIGAN STATE (10-2) vs. #11 Washington (11-2)
SUGAR		#5 Georgia (11-1) vs. #22 TCU (9-4)
	.
JANUARY 7
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP		TBA

[betarhoalphadelta]

I'm being 100% selfish here, but I'd rather Purdue end up in the Holiday than the Outback. I can drive there ;-)

I suppose you're picking them to the Outback over UM because Michigan was already there, and they try to avoid <5 teams in 6 years.

But I think Purdue is still too talent-poor to really line up with most top SEC teams, and having to "play up" a slot because of being selected over UM makes it even worse...

[ELA]

I'm being 100% selfish here, but I'd rather Purdue end up in the Holiday than the Outback. I can drive there ;-)

I suppose you're picking them to the Outback over UM because Michigan was already there, and they try to avoid <5 teams in 6 years.

But I think Purdue is still too talent-poor to really line up with most top SEC teams, and having to "play up" a slot because of being selected over UM makes it even worse...

Yeah, the way it falls here Purdue is almost defaulted to the Outback.  The teams they want to avoid are UW, UM, Iowa and Northwestern, the only teams Purdue is competing with for bowl spots.  They may go ahead and just burn their 2nd Wisconsin though.  I think they'd avoid Michigan in back to back years, particularly, as has been pointed out, a 2nd straight 8-4 season would be seen as a disappointment.

[Cincydawg]

That would be a lousy year for UGA, even if they beat 9-5 TCU in the bowl game.  Really lousy, as 12-1 and probably a final ranking of 3.  That is kinda funny.

One win over a ranked team assuming Auburn stays ranked.  

OOC slate really is bad this year.

[medinabuckeye1]

That would be a lousy year for UGA, even if they beat 9-5 TCU in the bowl game.  Really lousy, as 12-1 and probably a final ranking of 3.  That is kinda funny.

One win over a ranked team assuming Auburn stays ranked.  

OOC slate really is bad this year.

I didn't realize how bad until I did my post upthread comparing PSU's and UGA's theoretical SoS in this scenario.  
Their schedule is:

• The other six teams in the SEC-E (UF, UK, MO, USCe, TN, Vandy)
• LSU
• Auburn
• GaTech
• UMass
• MTSU
• FCS Austin Peay

In ELA's scenario Florida was ranked (barely, #25) before losing to FSU in the last week of the season.  It would obviously help if the rambling wreck were decent and that isn't UGA's fault but scheduling UMASS, MTSU, and and FCS team is.  

When I first started that post I assumed that UGA's SoS would be at least comparable at least to PSU's pre-CG SoS but in this scenario it isn't.  UGA ends up 1-1 against ranked teams with the lone win coming against a good-but-not-great 9-3 Auburn team.  

[ELA]

Bowl Schedule

DECEMBER 15
NEW MEXICO		Fresno State d. Florida Atlantic
CURE		Southern Miss d. NM State
LAS VEGAS		Boise State d. Stanford
CAMELLIA		Ohio d. Appalachian State
NEW ORLEANS		Louisiana Tech d. South Alabama
	.
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATON		Temple d. UAB
	.
DECEMBER 19
FRISCO		Houston d. UNLV
	.
DECEMBER 20
GASPARILLA		Boston College d. SMU
	.
DECEMBER 21
BAHAMAS		Miami(Ohio) d. Marshall
POTATO		San Diego State d. Toledo
	.
DECEMBER 22
BIRMINGHAM		Army d. Tulane
ARMED FORCES		Iowa State d. Memphis
DOLLAR GENERAL		Buffalo d. Troy
HAWAII		North Texas d. Utah State
	.
DECEMBER 26
FIRST RESPONDER		Middle Tennessee d. Western Michigan
QUICK LANE		Wake Forest d. Northern Illinois
CHEEZ-IT		Oregon d. Texas Tech
	.
DECEMBER 27
INDEPENDENCE		Louisville d. South Florida
PINSTRIPE		#18 Notre Dame d. California
SAN FRANCISCO		NORTHWESTERN d. #24 Washington State
TEXAS		Kansas State d. Arizona State
	.
DECEMBER 28
MUSIC CITY		#19 WISCONSIN d. LSU
CAMPING WORLD		#14 Miami d. Texas
ALAMO		#21 USC d. #23 Oklahoma State
HOLIDAY		MICHIGAN d. #20 Utah
	.
DECEMBER 29
BELK		#16 Florida State d. Missouri
PEACH		#9 OHIO STATE d. #7 Virginia Tech
ORANGE		#3 Clemson 38, #2 Oklahoma 23
COTTON		#1 Alabama 31, #4 PENN STATE 24
ARIZONA		Wyoming d. Arkansas State
	.
DECEMBER 31
MILITARY		Duke d. Navy
SUN		Georgia Tech d. #25 Arizona
LIBERTY		Texas A&M d. West Virginia
GATOR		#13 NC State d. Florida
	.
JANUARY 1
OUTBACK		#17 Auburn d. PURDUE
CITRUS		#12 Mississippi State d. #13 IOWA
FIESTA		#10 Central Florida d. #6 South Carolina
ROSE		#11 Washington d. #8 MICHIGAN STATE
SUGAR		#5 Georgia d. #22 TCU
	.
JANUARY 7
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP		#1 Alabama (14-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-1)

[ELA]

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Monday, January 7
#3 Clemson 27, #1 Alabama 24

[ELA]

ACC
ATLANTIC

• Clemson (7-1) 14-1
• NC State (6-2) 11-2
• Florida State (6-2) 10-3
• Louisville (4-4) 8-5
• Boston College (3-5) 8-5
• Wake Forest (3-5) 7-6
• Syracuse (2-6) 5-7

COASTAL

• Virginia Tech (7-1) 11-3
• Miami (6-2) 11-2
• Duke (4-4) 8-5
• Georgia Tech (4-4) 8-5
• Virginia (2-6) 5-7
• Pittsburgh (2-6) 3-9
• North Carolina (0-8) 1-11

BIG TEN
EAST

• Penn State (8-1) 12-2
• Michigan State (8-1) 10-3
• Ohio State (7-2) 11-2
• Michigan (6-3) 9-4
• Maryland (3-6) 5-7
• Indiana (2-7) 5-7
• Rutgers (1-8) 4-8

WEST

• Iowa (8-1) 11-3
• Wisconsin (6-3) 10-3
• Northwestern (5-4) 9-4
• Purdue (5-4) 7-6
• Nebraska (2-7) 5-7
• Minnesota (2-7) 4-8
• Illinois (0-9) 2-10

BIG XII

• Oklahoma (9-0) 13-1
• TCU (7-2) 9-5
• Oklahoma State (6-3) 9-4
• Kansas State (5-4) 9-4
• Iowa State (5-4) 8-5
• Texas (5-4) 8-5
• West Virginia (4-5) 6-7
• Texas Tech (3-6) 6-7
• Baylor (1-8) 2-10
• Kansas (0-9) 1-11

PAC 12
NORTH

• Washington (8-1) 12-2
• Washington State (6-3) 9-4
• Stanford (6-3) 8-5
• Oregon (5-4) 9-4
• California (3-6) 6-7
• Oregon State (0-9) 1-11

SOUTH

• Utah (7-2) 10-4
• USC (7-2) 10-3
• Arizona (6-3) 9-4
• Arizona State (4-5) 6-7
• Colorado (2-7) 4-8
• UCLA (0-9) 1-11

SEC
EAST

• South Carolina (8-0) 11-3
• Georgia (7-1) 12-1
• Florida (5-3) 8-5
• Missouri (4-4) 7-6
• Kentucky (2-6) 5-7
• Vanderbilt (1-7) 4-8
• Tennessee (0-8) 3-9

WEST

• Alabama (8-0) 14-1
• Mississippi State (7-1) 11-2
• Auburn (5-3) 10-3
• Texas A&M (4-4) 8-5
• LSU (2-6) 5-8
• Ole Miss (2-6) 5-7
• Arkansas (1-7) 5-7

AMERICAN
EAST

• Central Florida (8-0) 14-0
• South Florida (7-1) 10-3
• Temple (4-4) 7-6
• East Carolina (1-7) 4-8
• Connecticut (1-7) 3-9
• Cincinnati (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Tulane (6-2) 8-6
• Memphis (5-3) 8-5
• Navy (5-3) 8-6
• SMU (5-3) 6-7
• Houston (4-4) 7-6
• Tulsa (1-7) 3-9

CONFERENCE USA
EAST

• Florida Atlantic (7-1) 10-4
• Marshall (7-1) 8-5
• Middle Tennessee (6-2) 8-5
• Western Kentucky (3-5) 4-8
• FIU (2-6) 4-8
• Charlotte (2-6) 3-9
• Old Dominion (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• North Texas (7-1) 11-3
• Louisiana Tech (6-2) 8-5
• UAB (6-2) 8-5
• Southern Miss (4-4) 7-6
• Rice (3-5) 4-9
• UTSA (2-6) 4-8
• UTEP (0-8) 2-10

MAC
EAST

• Buffalo (6-2) 8-6
• Ohio (5-3) 9-4
• Miami(Ohio) (5-3) 8-5
• Akron (3-5) 4-8
• Kent State (2-6) 3-9
• Bowling Green (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Northern Illinois (8-0) 10-4
• Toledo (7-1) 9-4
• Western Michigan (4-4) 6-7
• Central Michigan (3-5) 5-7
• Eastern Michigan (3-5) 4-8
• Ball State (1-7) 3-9

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

• Boise State (8-0) 13-1
• Utah State (6-2) 8-5
• Wyoming (5-3) 8-5
• Air Force (3-5) 4-8
• Colorado State (3-5) 4-8
• New Mexico (0-8) 2-10

WEST

• Fresno State (7-1) 12-2
• San Diego State (6-2) 10-3
• UNLV (4-4) 6-7
• Nevada (3-5) 5-7
• San Jose State (3-5) 4-8
• Hawaii (0-8) 2-11

SUN BELT
EAST

• Appalachian State (7-1) 11-3
• Troy (6-2) 8-5
• Georgia State (4-4) 5-7
• Georgia Southern (2-6) 4-8
• Coastal Carolina (0-8) 2-10

WEST

• Arkansas State (8-0) 10-4
• South Alabama (4-4) 6-7
• UL Monroe (4-4) 5-7
• UL Lafayette (3-5) 5-7
• Texas State (2-6) 3-9

INDEPENDENTS

• Army (11-2)
• Notre Dame (10-3)
• NM State (6-7)
• Massachusetts (5-7)
• BYU (4-8)
• Liberty (3-9)

[ELA]

January 8 Poll

• Clemson (14-1)
• Alabama (14-1)
• Oklahoma (13-1)
• PENN STATE (12-2)
• Georgia (12-1)
• OHIO STATE (11-2)
• Central Florida (14-0)
• Washington (12-2)
• Mississippi State (11-2)
• South Carolina (11-3)
• Virginia Tech (11-3)
• Miami (11-2)
• NC State (11-2)
• MICHIGAN STATE (10-3)
• Florida State (10-3)
• Auburn (10-3)
• Notre Dame (10-3)
• WISCONSIN (10-3)
• IOWA (11-3)
• USC (10-3)
• Boise State (13-1)
• MICHIGAN (9-4)
• NORTHWESTERN (9-4)
• Utah (10-4)
• Kansas State (9-4)

[Cincydawg]

UGA has usually scheduled two P5 teams OOC, but this year it didn't happen for whatever reason.  And GaTech is believed to be mediocre at best, so it is a bad OOC slate with only 8 conference games.  As I said, a 12-1 year as shown would be a pretty bad year in reality.

[FearlessF]

but, you'll take the winning percentage and a top 5 finish

a decade from now, not many will remember the weak schedule

[Cincydawg]

Eh, sure I'd take it, but in some respects something like 12-2 would be better than 12-1.  My "aim" each year is to win the conference.  Anything less is disappointing to me, save those years where the team is clearly not in the hunt.

Win the conference, the rest of it is somewhat subject to variables outside your control.  Someone will ask me whether I'd rather have the SEC Crown last year or the NC crown and no SEC title.

For bragging rights, the latter is better of course, but the SEC thing tied us with Tennessee for 2nd most titles, and yes, nobody outside the conference cares.

[FearlessF]

conference titles are impressive