Dawg fight UGA vs MSU

[rolltidefan2]

Thoughts, discussions and observations.

A battle for the 2nd spot in the league.

 who takes snaps for the Athens Dawgs?  
Can Fitzgerald stay hot?

[Drew4UTk]

I'm looking over the slate, and it appears i'm going to have to select this game as the "cfb51 showcase game"..... this doesn't make me happy for two reasons- the first is I'm going to piss some people off, and the second is I really don't know about this game.  

 based on what I've seen of MSU, they play tight- they have a solid D and a lot more prolific offense than I'm accustomed to seeing down there.  

 i know just enough about oohga to figure i don't know enough.  they're defense is spectacular at times and in flashes they appear to be as good as anyone- but how good was ND?  who else of note have they played?

I'm going to do some reading to riddle out a few questions i have, and I'll write up the showcase- post it later this morning or early afternoon... I'm friggin' 3-0 on that thing, and if you add in the sidebar games i've posted, i'm straight up undefeated.... this will be the game that wrecks my record, hide and watch. 

[Cincydawg]

Fromm will still be starting at QB for UGA.  Eason is back at practice but clearly limited.  

UGA injury situation otherwise is improving apparently.

MSU has a good mobile QB who will get his yards (unlike Wimbush).  They also have a good DL that likely will cause UGA problems on offense running the ball.  If you think that sounds like a recipe for winning, it is obviously.

I think in Athens UGA pulls out a close win late, something like 23-20.

Turnovers and STs will of course be a key factor.

[Drew4UTk]

I did it.... I ain't confident about it... but... it's out there, now. 

https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=750.0 

[Cincydawg]

I have a hunch this is the week where UGA makes a statement and perhaps wins convincingly.

New hunch.  I'll always worry of course.

Then they lose one they should win somewhere.

[MikeDeTiger]

There is a bit of a perfect storm that went into making Clanga's beatdown of LSU.  Play that game 10x and I don't think LSU could lose by that much again if they tried.  In other words, I think MSU has a good team, similar to 2014, but without Dak Prescott, and on paper they still aren't on par with UGA.

Additionally, MSU certainly has UGA's attention now in a way they probably wouldn't have if they'd lost to LSU or beaten us less convincingly.  There won't be any overlooking anything or sleepwalking between the hedges.  
Two key factors that I don't see repeating themselves:  1)  LSU imploded the moment things didn't go their way.  That's likely a sign of the youth of the team (or bad coaching, who knows).  I can't see that happening with UGA, especially at home.  2)  LSU's entire starting D-line wound up out for the game.  The guys who played were whipped up front, it got worse as they got tired, and they couldn't set the edge all night.  The way in which MSU attacked us successfully was to constantly gain the edge.  I don't see that being something UGA can't stand up to and stop.  State won't be nearly so effective if they can't do that.  Their lines are good, but I imagine UGA's are better.  

I think it will be a good game, but UGA takes it.  

[EastAthens]

Kirby has had a quiet confidence about him this week like they figured out Mullen at Alabama and he seems to think he has the horses on D to do the same thing to them this week. My inner Crunch says UGA has the best linebackers in the country and that is what you need need against this offense. Also the Dawgs go 10 deep on talented dlinemen.

UGA 27-Clanga 13

[Drew4UTk]

clang..... clang.... oogah won't catch up.  nothing personal... oogah will still play in 'lanta come December. 

[bamajoe]

I guess I need to get me a Mississippi State tee shirt. I think some people are way over estimating their team after a narrow win over a middling Notre Dame team and underestimating State. I think this is a very close game that can go either way as State is a bad match up for Georgia. Georgia is still thin along the line and State likes to play the RPO which tends to wear down a team without much depth.

Now Georgia could wear out State but for some reason they didn't turn Chubb and Michael lose against ND. I expect a similar game plan to the Notre Dame game. If that is the case it favors State. 

[Cincydawg]

I don't think the Dawgs are "thin across the line" on defense at all.  I don't know where that came from.

I do worry about a mobile and experienced QB.  

This is my optimistic Thursday which usually is followed by a Munson Friday.

[MikeDeTiger]

Let me ask you this:  Do you think UGA has the skill on the line to keep from getting cut down on the edge and keep the back 7 relatively clean?  Does the back 7 likely know what they're responsible for when they meet the edge?  Can the offense avoid a meltdown, such as getting mentally stuck on a bad call that doesn't go their way?

Those aren't really tall orders, imo.  If UGA can do those things, then Clanga can't play UGA like they played us.  And the way they played us is the way they want to play.  That's Mullen's preferred offense.  Rarely do you see it work out like that for them, but it just so happens we sucked at everything it takes to force MSU into plan B or C.  

I've been doing a film breakdown all morning (it's sadistic, I know), and one thing you repeatedly see is that when MSU went into trips, it took LSU's force defender out of the picture on the strong side, and they kept running there for big gains.  LSU had no player there to force the runner back back inside to the chasing linebackers and defensive line.  There's about 10 different breakdowns that happened on about 11 such plays, and I'd say LSU found about every way to fail to defend trips-run there is.  (Youth?  Coaching?  I dunno.)  That accounted for only 30% of their rushing plays, but 52% of their yards.  

Also--and I really can't stress this enough--LSU runs a 3-man front, and those 3 DL starters were out for at least half the game.  One DE was hurt and did not make the trip.  The DT was hurt early in the game and mostly didn't play.  The other DE was ejected early in the 2nd half.  We had 4 bodies manning 3 DL spots with an offense that went 3 and out all second half.  Those guys played 80 snaps, I think.  They were beyond gassed.  

So to my questions above, if UGA can answer those relatively simple things in the affirmative, I don't know that MSU's big win over LSU has much relevance.  I know little about UGA beyond what I saw in the Notre Dame game.  But unless UGA is thin, prone to making really bad mistakes play after play, and forgets how to pick up 1st downs, then this is a really different game.  And I still think UGA wins the paper matchup, which might bode well for the eastern dawgs on the lines.  

[bamajoe]

I know it was last November but Georgia got worn out by Georgia Tech. Mississippi State has somewhat of a similar offense to Georgia Tech. That is why I think Georgia might have a problem with State. I am not declaring State the winner but I think it is going to be close.

[MikeDeTiger]

Maybe I'm reading too much into the "G" on Georgia's shiny helmet.  

I don't really know much about them.  I'm probably guessing more than anything.  

[Cincydawg]

It likely will be close and could go either way, but Georgia is not thin in the DL, they rotate very good players there the entire game.  Their LBs are wicked fast and aggressive.  That is the strength of the defense, but the DL is close.

They play a 3-4, but it is more of a 5-2 as the outside LBs are usually at the line and one of them may rush and the other drops.  ND had a lot of trouble blocking the LB who rushed, and that includes their alleged all world OLmen.  The secondary is more spotty but is experienced and has depth.

Georgia is also healthy other than Eason.  They should get back one of their star safeties for the game (broken foot).

This one probably comes down to turnovers (which are not predictable) and special teams play.  UGA has apparently fixed some major issues on ST and now is perhaps "average" in that department.

Fromm has three games under his belt but still needs to learn how to throw the ball away or eat it and take a loss.  He has a good arm and good vision, not the rifle Eason has, but a good arm.  He's 6'2" (Eason is over 6'5") and Fromm is slightly more mobile, but not that mobile.  The Dawg OL has always been the weak spot.  It may have improved to being "OK", don't know yet.