CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2017, 12:37:21 PM
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Is Bielema toast, or is he safe because if his buyout? That's an ugly loss to a fairly mediocre team, it seems. He's 2-3 now and it's hard to see any certain wins outside of Coastal and Mizzou - if even Mizzou. Maybe Ole Miss??
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I keep looking at how many higher end programs could be looking for a new coach in the SEC in January. I think this is a bad time to fire a guy, but I'm sure plenty will be fired. Then what? Bidding war? Get a third best choice? Get someone worse?
Sumlin may be OK at A&M, but that is doubtful. I don't think Orgeron saved his job. Butch Jones is thought to be done. Ole Miss and Mizzou may join the fray. Vandy might be out of a coach. Miss State might be grumbling a bit.
I'd say Tenn and LSU are almost certain to be looking, and Arky, Ole Miss, and Mizzou are also likely.
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i'm not sold that CBJ is gone, yet... he will likely be after this weekend coming, though.. .
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I see a lot of prospective openings by January in the SEC alone.
They won't all materialize, but many will I think.
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LSU can't afford Orgeron's buyout right now. At this particular moment, it's more likely AD Alleva will be fired first and the new AD would probably give O a year (or two) before bringing in his own guy. AD's fate is definitely tied to O's in failure, though not necessarily in success.
The win over Florida almost certainly saved Alleva's job this week, though not permanently.
O does seem to have sold some people who matter that LSU is more of a rebuild than anyone thought. I myself will admit that while a lot of things about him make me think he's a poor coach, he's had a inordinate number of things stacked against him that LSU is not used to.
Auburn and Alabama are almost certainly losses. Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and A&M are all winnable, and LSU probably gets 2 or 3 of those, I'd say right now. That's probably enough for O to be here next year, everything else considered. I'm not as certain about the AD. If O stays it probably means Alleva isn't fired, though not certain. If O is gone, Alleva is almost certainly gone first.
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I think everyone is safe except the guys at Tenn., Mizzou and Ole Miss. I think Arky gives Bielema one more year.
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CBB's buyout is 14 million right now, but there is a LOT of grumbling... swapping out coordinators is getting old...
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I guess this buy out clause is standard these days? I don't like it, especially when it is so high.
A coach is not going to be effective is the only thing saving his job is a buyout. He knows it, the team knows it, everyone knows it. He's only there because it's too costly to fire him.
Not good psych.
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Did Bielema sign an extension or new contract recently? $14 mil buyout is on the high end for a coach in the middle or end of their contract.
O's buyout if they fired him this year is $12 mil. It goes down 3 mil every subsequent year. So if LSU gives him the standard 3 years they could fire him at 6 million cheaper. His buyout is actually median for the league contracts around the SEC....it's not out of whack with all your coaches at all.
What's got our AD in hot water, amongst a slew of other things, is why he allowed a coach with O's history and zero leverage to have a buyout like that. One school of thought says he got O at a discount salary and a university wants to project that they are invested in their guy, if for no other reason than trying to attract the next guy, and the buyout is standard, so it's okay. Another school of thought says O had no other job offers, a wretched history at Ole Miss, and LSU is his dream job by his own admission, and LSU should've lowballed him on every front.
Other than the money they make, I'm glad I don't have to make some of those decisions.
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I always liked Coach B but I'm starting to wonder if his success in Madison more about the program and less about him. I don't begrudge his leaving at all - he wanted to build his own program. I get that. I wonder if he should have held out a year or two more for a job at a school in better recruiting grounds, with more recent positive history.
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Could be. I don't understand that allure, but not everyone is built the same. I wouldn't leave Wisconsin for Arkansas, but that's just me.
Arkansas did have some success with Petrino, on the field at least. They did well in his time there.
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Wisconsin does not seem dependent on who the coach might be (to me).
Arkansas is.
Look at USCe with Spurrier, a very different kettle of fish. Holtz did well there also. Coaches of that caliber are rare.
I have not checked on how Arkansas is recruiting of late. Maybe they just don't have the ponies.
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Wisconsin does not seem dependent on who the coach might be (to me).
Oh, trust me, it would have mattered had the last one stayed.
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It matters who the coach is at every school. Nobody is immune to average or bad coaching. Not Michigan, not Texas, not Alabama, not USC. Wisconsin is no different.
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BB's task at Arky is tougher than it was at Wiscy. There's no Bama in the B10 West, no LSU, hell, not even an Auburn (unless you'd argue Wisconsin is at that level, which I wouldn't argue against).
If you listed the SEC West and B10 West by helmetosity, taking UW and ARK out, what do you get?
Alabama
Nebraska
LSU
Auburn
Iowa?
Texas A&M?
then what? The MS schools are crap, but so are Minny, Illinois, and NW (historically).
But if you look at those 7 'name' schools, UNL hasn't mattered in a long time. Wisconsin's wiggle room, or floor, is higher than Arkansas'. I'm not sure why BB has a hot seat, to be honest. What do their fans expect? From my perspective, Arkansas should maybe challenge for 2nd/3rd in the West every few years. That's about it, considering the programs they're facing.
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There was no B1G West when Bielema was in Madison...
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Arkansas fans, some of them, expect NCs every year. So do some Georgia fans.
Expectations are proportional to disappointment in many cases. If you expect AT LEAST NY6 bowl invites and anything less is below par, you might go through a lot of coaches in short order.
UGA has just about every advantage you can imagine and they have never made an NY6 bowl as currently constituted.
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Georgia doesn't have the track record for such radical expectations, but they certainly have everything else needed. For Arkansas fans to expect that much, they're just nuts.
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Most Hog fans I know would be happy if the Hogs were just competitive in every game and win the ones they should win. These 2nd half collapses and blow out losses are becoming CBB's signature... Not Running back U or Linemen U...
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It's hard to go into a job and proclaim that you're going to be OLine U when there is no real pipeline for it.
In-State recruiting (and strength training and development, of course) is the key and to my knowledge the state of Arkansas has not been a big producer of big linemen. Correct me if I'm wrong.
BB has also not been able to attract an OL coach of the caliber he had up North (Bostad), but I think Anderson has potential to be a very good one. He also has a great strength coach in Ben Herbert.
Ragnow (from Minnie) is an example of the kinds of kid needed to build a line. I wish he stayed closer to home.
UW mostly does it with big frame kids from Wisconsin and Minnesota who grow up wanting to be Badgers. Most of them never get above 3* rankings because they have no other offers as the other schools most often know they are not getting them so they don't bother. When the Michigan's of the world do come in and offer the kids magically get a 4th star next to their names... Whatever. You can't chase STARZ when you're recruiting the OL. Just can't.
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Most Hog fans I know would be happy if the Hogs were just competitive in every game and win the ones they should win. These 2nd half collapses and blow out losses are becoming CBB's signature... Not Running back U or Linemen U...
Therein lies the rub. It's oftentimes a matter of opinion which games our teams "should" win.
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Therein lies the rub. It's oftentimes a matter of opinion which games our teams "should" win.
that answer is easy: all of them.
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Sam Pittman certainly seems to be doing a great job this year at UGA with OL, which was expected to be a weakenss.
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So, which SEC coaches are really in trouble?
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/10/updating_sec_head_coach_job_se.html
Jones - Tennessee Thought to be gone already, but could recover another year.
Bielma - Arkansas Buy out may save him.
Orgeron LSU - Buy out may save him.
Sumlin A&M - Recovered from first game collapse fairly well
Luke - Ole Miss - They clearly want a replacement
Mason - Vandy - Only included because someone may poach him
Odom - Missouri - I'm not sure who would be better.
UGA, USCe, UF, Bama, Auburn, UK, MSU probably are set for now.
They won't all be fired of course, but it's a large number.
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I hope Sumlin coaches Aggie forever.
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It would be kinda funny is no one was fired, but I doubt that happens. I'd guess at 3.
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Florida's OC is on as hot a seat as any of the HCs at other schools.
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Florida's OC is on as hot a seat as any of the HCs at other schools.
I can see that, but really, is it his fault?
UGA fans hated their OC last year and this year he's apparently a genius.
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Apparently CBB's buyout is a lot less than I thought.
http://footballscoop.com/news/explaining-bret-bielemas-buyout/ (http://footballscoop.com/news/explaining-bret-bielemas-buyout/)
There is hope for change! :57:
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Well, the expected happened vs Alabama. I doubt that changes anything for Arky.