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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on September 30, 2018, 01:23:32 PM

Title: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 30, 2018, 01:23:32 PM
No hedging.  Rank 'em. 
50% resume, 50% eye test

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
5. Kentucky
6. Texas A&M
7. Florida
8. Missouri
9. South Carolina
10. Miss State
11. Tennessee
12. Vanderbilt
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2018, 06:45:09 AM
Resumewise, I might have UK at One.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: rolltidefan on October 01, 2018, 11:12:06 AM
bama
lsu
uga
uk
au
aTm
mizzou
uf
usc
msu
om
vandy
arky
tenn
i think uga is better, but lsu clearly has the better wins. could say the same about bama, but their games are over at halftime. imo it's clear enough that the wins don't negate that.
haven't watch enough of uk, but based on resume and how poorly au off has been, i give them the edge.
i had msu in the top 3 preseason, they've really disappointed imo.
uf might be making a bounce back.
om might be top 4 in league on off, but that d is so bad. so so bad.
didn't know what to do with mizzou but gave uga at least a little test, so middle of pack seems right.
i wanted to put vandy higher, but i just don't think they're better than anyone above them.
arky and tenn - yeesh
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 01, 2018, 11:29:57 AM

i think uga is better, but lsu clearly has the better wins. could say the same about bama, but their games are over at halftime
LSU's games are over at halftime.  Just in week 3's case, the barn forgot that the game was over in their favor and for the second year in a row blew a double digit lead, lolz.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2018, 12:53:42 PM
One might think Team L is better than Team G while Team G is more talented, as one example.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Gigem on October 03, 2018, 02:45:14 PM
Got to give Ed O credit. I figured he was only good for one or two seasons at LasU but he’s got them looking good. 

I look for LSU to beat Florida handily but I confess I don’t know much about the gators this year. 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 03, 2018, 06:45:51 PM
Even die-hard Gators fans don't know what this team really is.  The line is surprising to me - Vegas knows something the rest of us don't.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Gigem on October 04, 2018, 12:47:19 AM
Vegas' job is to make sure the money falls evenly on both sides.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 05, 2018, 12:09:07 AM
Everyone knows that.


Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 07, 2018, 11:08:28 PM
Using my previous week's rankings:
1 beat 14
7 beat 2
3 beat 12
10 beat 4
9 beat 8
6 beat 5
13 beat Directional U
11 had a bye
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 07, 2018, 11:13:25 PM
Oct 7:  1-14
50% Resume/50% Eye Test

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Texas A&M
4. Florida
5. LSU
6. Kentucky
7. Auburn
8. Miss State
9. South Carolina
10. Missouri
11. Vanderbilt
12. Tennessee
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas

1 & 2 are a step above
3 to 7 is a mish-mash
IMO, Mizzou is s strong 10th-best team
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: rolltidefan on October 08, 2018, 10:38:50 AM
bama
gap
uga
gap
aTm
uk
uf
lsu
msu
au
usc
mizz
gap
om
vandy
arky
tenn
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 13, 2018, 07:27:49 PM
Oct 7:  1-14
50% Resume/50% Eye Test

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Texas A&M
4. Florida
5. LSU
6. Kentucky
7. Auburn
8. Miss State
9. South Carolina
10. Missouri
11. Vanderbilt
12. Tennessee
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas

Oct 13 update:
1 is going to beat 10
12 beat 7
3 beat 9
5 beat 2
4 beat 11
13 plays 14 (Toilet Bowl)
BYE:  6, 8
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2018, 03:22:33 PM
1. Alabama................untouched
2. LSU......................being battle-tested paid off
3. Georgia.................failed first test
4. Texas A&M.............good enough, again
5. Florida..................came out flat, still won
6. Kentucky...............bye
7. Miss State.............bye
8. South Carolina.......close, but gotta win at home
9. Missouri................no chance
10. Auburn...............talent doesn't matter if you keep losing
11. Vanderbilt...........out-talented again
12. Tennessee..........surprise win of the SEC so far
13. Ole Miss.............bad enough to get down 17 to Arkansas
14. Arkansas............bad enough to lose to Ole Miss
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2018, 06:37:37 PM
Computer Composite Rankings (of 50 of them there internets e-machine types):
Rnk. Team (nat'l rank)
1. Alabama (1)
2. LSU (5)
3. Georgia (7)
4. Florida (9)
5. Kentucky (11)
6. Texas A&M (16)
7. Miss State (20)
8. South Carolina (39)
9. Ole Miss (40)
10. Auburn (44)
11. Missouri (51)
12. Tennessee (64)
13. Vanderbilt (66)
14. Arkansas (109)
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 23, 2018, 07:15:58 PM
Tuesday afternoon 1-14....I had to fly to GA for a wedding this weekend.  

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Texas A&M
6. Kentucky
7. Miss State
8. South Carolina
9. Missouri
10. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
12. Tennessee
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on October 24, 2018, 07:56:40 AM
Is Auburn really as bad as they look at times?

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 24, 2018, 12:38:42 PM
I felt all preseason like there was a lot of whistling past the graveyard re: Auburn, re: offensive line.  You don't take those kind of hits and just keep going.  Also, Gus' offense seems to hinge on that dynamic runner, a Kerryon Johnson or a Tre Mason type.  It all looks QB-related with Gus, but it hinges on having that guy at tailback, and I don't see that guy on this team.   
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2018, 01:39:30 PM
OAM has them ranked 10th.  I'm not quibbling with that, just pondering how they could be that bad, if they are.

Bad OL, lack of a great RB, and a QB struggling ....

They started the season top ten, right?  They would be I think the most over ranked team this season.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 25, 2018, 03:03:10 PM
They still have a more than solid defense.  That offense has problems though.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: rolltidefan on October 25, 2018, 03:43:43 PM
the answer is obvious: expectations did them in, as always. i have no idea why or how, but au + expectations = failure. a tale as old as time.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2018, 04:36:34 PM
Hot seat?
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2018, 08:27:34 PM
the answer is obvious: expectations did them in, as always. i have no idea why or how, but au + expectations = failure. a tale as old as time.
This.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2018, 08:36:22 AM
One has to notice that Mullen has made a real difference at Florida.  One began to wonder when they lost to UK, but if some breaks went their way a bit more, they could beat UGA, they certainly played them tough to the end.

Franks is only a so-so QB, and they won't be a really good team until they fix that.

UK pulled one out, which is interesting.  UGA-UK next week apparently decides the East.  It's up there.  I think UGA pulls it out, but that running game by UK and their defense is scary.

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 10:29:08 AM
Alright, let's see.....according to last week's ranking:
1, 2, 10, and 13 were off
3 beat 4
7 beat 5
6 somehow came back to beat 9
8 beat 12
11 beat 14
So my ranking wasn't too bad - only one minor upset



Almost Halloween 1-14 (that rhymes):
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Miss State
7. Texas A&M
8. South Carolina
9. Missouri
10. Auburn
11. Tennessee
12. Vanderbilt
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas - may be the worst SEC team in recent memory
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2018, 10:58:32 AM
The Vols hung in there on the road at USCe and did beat Auburn on the road.

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 12:23:35 PM
They were up 21-9 in the 3rd quarter and lost.  And you can't forget what they did in the early season.
50% resume/50% eye test
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Gigem on October 28, 2018, 01:39:42 PM
MSU had our number again. Looks like Stidham will “find his rhythm” against us next week too. 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2018, 04:27:58 PM
Sunday Afternoon Updated for Nov 4:

1 - Alabama
2 - Georgia
3 - LSU
4 - Kentucky
5 - Miss State
6 - Florida
7 - Texas A&M
8 - South Carolina
9 - Missouri
10 - Auburn
11 - Ole Miss
12 - Vanderbilt
13 - Tennessee
14 - Arkansas



Tennessee's game was probably the 2nd-worst game by an SEC school this year (behind Arkansas vs North Texas).  14-3 over Charlotte, with one of their TDs being a kick return.  What???
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2018, 05:42:50 PM
Solid ranking, I might have LSU ahead of UGA.  Auburn is 6-3, they showed a bit of life yesterday.

Strikes me as a bunch of mediocre teams that can beat each other any Saturday and a couple of really bad teams and maybe a couple of decent teams and those Other Guys.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2018, 08:12:44 PM
We're deep enough into the season where who beat who head-to-head isn't much of a clarifier anymore.  Georgia would have played a better game vs Bama than LSU did.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: bamajoe on November 05, 2018, 07:21:39 AM
I think Kentucky is too high and Auburn too low. I believe all the teams you consider mediocre are good teams in a league where Alabama and Georgia are a step above the rest. I think it is a very strong league top to bottom.

Bama
Georgia
LSU
MSU
Auburn
A&M
Missouri
Florida
Kentucky
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Vandy
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2018, 07:41:26 AM
The only real purpose I can think of in ranking teams is "who would beat who", but then you get the obvious issue.

I'd opine any of the 4-10 teams could beat each other fairly often.

11-14 would rarenly beat 4-10.  4-10 would rarely beat 1-3.

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 05, 2018, 09:44:02 AM
Granted I did not watch Florida's game, so I'm flying blind here, but I still think Florida, Georgia and LSU are in some sort of general mish-mash together.  I'm not sure there's a lot of meaningful distinction between them, except that UGA is more balanced, having some offense to go with their defense.  Florida's game against UGA did not go well, UGA's game with LSU did not go well, and LSU's game with UF, despite the score, didn't go all that well.  You put these teams in a bag, pick two, play the games again, and there's no telling what kind of game you'll get.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2018, 09:52:00 AM
The Dawgs seem to be finding themselves a bit of late.  Earlier in the year I saw all sorts of problems, and still see a major issue with third and short for some reason.  The OL was dinged with injuries at UK and the new kids came in and did well.  UK statistically had a formidable defense especially against the run.  I was seeing holes in that game.

Swift also seems recovered from a nagging hamstring injury and is a weapon again.  Holyfield was getting most of the snaps because Swift had been not so swift.  Holyfield is a load to bring down, so they are kind of like Chubb and Michel.  And they will be back, hopefully with a healthy Smith next year.  This team is probably one year away because of the youth.  

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 05, 2018, 09:56:17 AM
"Swift" is just such a great name for a running back.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: ALA2262 on November 05, 2018, 10:22:36 AM
The Dawgs seem to be finding themselves a bit of late.  Earlier in the year I saw all sorts of problems, and still see a major issue with third and short for some reason.  The OL was dinged with injuries at UK and the new kids came in and did well.  UK statistically had a formidable defense especially against the run.  I was seeing holes in that game.

Swift also seems recovered from a nagging hamstring injury and is a weapon again.  Holyfield was getting most of the snaps because Swift had been not so swift.  Holyfield is a load to bring down, so they are kind of like Chubb and Michel.  And they will be back, hopefully with a healthy Smith next year.  This team is probably one year away because of the youth.  


Bama will be better in 2019 than 2018 for the same reason. They will return at least 15 of the two-deep on both sides of the ball.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2018, 10:29:18 AM
https://uga.rivals.com/news/2016-depth-chart-2

The Dawgs started with one senior on offense, a very good one (center), 4 seniors on defense.  

Second string has 4 seniors on offense, but they have been usurped, and 3 on defense and one GR.  Three of those guys are quite good though.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: rolltidefan on November 05, 2018, 03:39:15 PM
i'm not sure au showed they're still a good as much as aTm showed, despite them having a new coach, they still have the ability to chock a game in nov. classic aggies move to keep from having to play anyone in early december.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2018, 05:12:47 PM
Granted I did not watch Florida's game, so I'm flying blind here, but I still think Florida, Georgia and LSU are in some sort of general mish-mash together.  I'm not sure there's a lot of meaningful distinction between them, except that UGA is more balanced, having some offense to go with their defense.  Florida's game against UGA did not go well, UGA's game with LSU did not go well, and LSU's game with UF, despite the score, didn't go all that well.  You put these teams in a bag, pick two, play the games again, and there's no telling what kind of game you'll get.  

No no no, Florida is below the other two.  The defense went from good to crap and has been crap for 3 games straight.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 05, 2018, 07:00:57 PM
What happened?  Injuries?  

And that still maybe just puts UF in the same boat as LSU, pretty decent defense, good ST, and crap, crap offense.  Which is actually getting worse as the season progresses.  Which, my older friends tell me was a hallmark of Ensminger offenses 20 years ago, so.....thanks, O.  Got anymore friends you'd like to promote?
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2018, 07:43:49 PM
No, we got Henderson (CB) and our safety back.  It was basically apathy.  Can get jacked up for LSU, but lose interest/passion vs Mizzou.  Basically a hangover from no longer able to win the East after the loss to UGA.

We're not good enough to just show up.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2018, 08:07:42 AM
I still wonder about the motivation thing.  They only get to play 13 or so games each season and work hard to get there.  How can a player not be "up" for any of them?  And sometimes a player can be too "up" at least early in a game and make mistakes as a result.

Maybe they slack off in game prep when the a season goes south and maybe that is sufficient to turn one L into Two.

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 06, 2018, 09:47:05 AM
It's definitely a thing.  LSU had a "post-Bama" problem since 2012.  It's a main reason why Les was ultimately fired.  Popular narrative is he couldn't beat Alabama anymore, but that's not true.  His time ran out because his team kept losing to Arkansas and Ole Miss after Alabama when they lost interest in the season.  

LSU fans have a HUGE mental thing about Bama these days, and I know for sure it it's not lost on the players.  It's a toxic culture, but these days LSU's seasons are considered failures when they can't get over that hump.

O was considered in part because during his interim 8 games, his team bounced back from the Alabama loss and demolished the weak remaining teams, something LSU hadn't done in years.  We'll see if he can keep it up.  

There's plenty other teams/years where you can see the motivation leave them.  It's palpable.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2018, 10:39:37 AM
Dawg fans have a huge thing about Bama also for some reason.  Same with Florida.  

And to a lesser degree USCe, Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2018, 01:38:29 PM
Programs like LSU aren't supposed to lose 8 straight to anybody.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 06, 2018, 01:50:56 PM
Programs like LSU aren't supposed to lose 8 straight to anybody.
Based on what?  
The fact Alabama spends more $ on their football program than LSU's entire athletic department budget?  Based on their 7 straight #1 recruiting classes, which created a wide talent gap even between the LSU's of the world?  
When you recruit better and your second team is still on par with an opponent's first team, and it's the one game of the year they bother to bring it full speed, you'll lose a LOT of games.  Let me be clear, Alabama has lapped the field on nearly everyone, talent-wise.  Every single game they lose is an upset and it means somebody didn't do their job.  Whether it's a coach, a player, or whoever.  Ole Miss and Auburn tag them every now and again when Alabama falls asleep, but this is something they simply don't do against LSU, for various reasons I already outlined.  
LSU will not compete with Alabama again until the talent gap closes.  And that's not going to happen until Saban is gone one day.  Many of Louisiana's best players from their classes were playing for the Crimson Tide last Saturday.  That's not changing because when kids leave the state their mantra these days is "Alabama wins championships."  It's a self-perpetuating cycle at this point.  LSU won't win that game and play for the SEC or get in the playoffs until those kids stop leaving us, and furthermore until we can pull 5-stars out of every other state in the union.  If it sounds like a longshot, it is.  It ain't happening.  
LSU is a good, healthy program.  
They'll still lose however many more games Saban coaches in their division.   
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 06, 2018, 02:36:21 PM
Just off the top of my head, their 3rd string RB is a 5* from California.  They convinced a 4* ESPN Top 100 DE to GREYSHIRT.  He was from Louisiana, I believe.  He stated in an interview "It's better to go to Alabama and sit on the bench than start at LSU."  That seems dumb in a vacuum, but he elaborated that he knew he'd become a better player at Alabama, and that they play for championships, and no matter what LSU had going for it, they couldn't give him that.  He didn't want our scholarship.  

No, LSU cannot compete with that, when guys with offers to 20 other schools would essentially rather be a walk-on for a year.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2018, 06:25:05 PM
Yes, Alabama's roster the past 5 years has been the most talented of the scholarship-limit era.  But if Auburn, Ole Miss, and A&M can steal a win from the Tide here and there, LSU can as well.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 08:10:32 AM
I think a Bama opponent has to have a versatile and capable offense to have a chance of winning.  LSU does not at this point.

Obviously, a good QB can make a huge difference for an otherwise decent team.  A mobile QB who can beat you with his arm is required to beat Bama, unless the opponent really does have the talent to match up in the lines and elsewhere.

For that reason, I think I would start Fields for the Dawgs against Bama, or at least play him a LOT more than they have done in the past and let him throw the ball.  Ohio State lined up toe to toe and beat Bama a few years back.  That is rare to see, and they had a big bruising QB of the Tebow ilk.  

Every so often a QB "gets hot" and makes those pinpoint throws and generally has the game of his life, and then Bama might lose or get tested.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: bamajoe on November 07, 2018, 10:34:05 AM
There is little chance that Georgia will start Fields. Apparently there is some question about whether or not he can pass. I think Georgia has placed their success or failure on Fromm.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 11:40:59 AM
Oh, I agree Fields won't start.  He can pass though, and he looks pretty good doing it.  I suspect he is not yet nearly as good at getting into the right play and reading coverages as is Fromm (which would make sense).

Fromm obviously is a competent passer, he's pretty accurate usually and has a decent arm and can zing the outs as well as all but the real rifles.

Fields has a stronger arm but likely is less accurate.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 07, 2018, 12:07:15 PM
to beat Bama you've got to have a team properly manned, and even with that is simply leveling the field- THEN you have to be able to punch them somewhere they're not ready for.  this is getting increasingly difficult.  they'll rule until Saban retires. 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: rolltidefan on November 07, 2018, 12:16:45 PM
Based on what?  
The fact Alabama spends more $ on their football program than LSU's entire athletic department budget? 
not sure if you're exaggerating to prove a point, just wanted to point out that this is incorrect.
bama (https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2018/01/alabama_footballs_piece_of_174.html), in 2017, expended 62.3 million on football, 158.7m in total. they had 174.3m i revenue, and 15.6 profit for the whole athletic dept. for football, revenue was 108.2m and profit 45.9m.
lsu (https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_4e657258-0605-11e8-bb2a-9f9c95e2a97b.html), in 2017, had 147m in revenue for whole ath dept and 16m in profits. the football program had 86.2m in revenue, 30.1m in expenses for 56.1m in profit.
there's a significant diff in rev/exp in football between the 2, but not overall ad budget.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 07, 2018, 02:46:38 PM
Yes, proving a point.  That's over twice as much money spent. 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 07, 2018, 02:56:01 PM
Yes, Alabama's roster the past 5 years has been the most talented of the scholarship-limit era.  But if Auburn, Ole Miss, and A&M can steal a win from the Tide here and there, LSU can as well.
I imagine that's pretty easy to say as a fan of a team in division that never plays them.
You said it yourself, they steal one.  Alabama falls asleep, it happens, can't make 18-22 year old kids get their head out of their ass all the time.  
And for various stated reasons, Alabama is not going to fall asleep against LSU.  Their coach has said it multiple times.  Their players have said it multiple times.  Anyone watching the games can see it.  Alabama is going to bring it's A game first week of November.  
Now either of us can point to 2012 and 2014 and say that LSU should have won either or both of those games, and maybe so.  For a handful of reasons, they did not.  But that was back when the talent discrepancy wasn't so severe, and that's reflected by win totals.  
Pointing out how Ole Miss won the craziest flukiest games imaginable does nothing to change the fact that they have 5* on their two and three deep.  You're effectively saying a program like Florida should not lose that many games to them, but were your team in their division and they considered the Gators a threat, Florida wouldn't have won any games against them lately either.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: bamajoe on November 07, 2018, 03:53:27 PM
That Ole Miss game that Alabama lost was a super fluke. To start with for some reason Saban started Cooper Bateman for the only time in his career and he played ineffectively for most of the first half before changing to Jake Coker who almost pulled the game out.   It didn't help that Ole Miss was +5 in the turnover department and had a long td that bounced off a Bama defender's helmet. It was a perfect storm.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 08, 2018, 12:34:53 AM
But it works for other teams in either division:
Tennessee shouldn't have lost 11 in a row to Florida

If Auburn can beat Bama 3 out of 8 years, LSU can, too.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2018, 08:04:34 AM
Auburn has had more of an offensive threat than LSU, in the main.  If you don't have at least a half decent offense and mobile QB, you won't beat Bama.  Every team that beats Bama is dangerous on offense, and most have a mobile QB.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: bamajoe on November 08, 2018, 10:14:55 AM
Also Auburn has not beaten Alabama 3 times in 8 years. 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 08, 2018, 10:18:38 AM
But it works for other teams in either division:
Tennessee shouldn't have lost 11 in a row to Florida

If Auburn can beat Bama 3 out of 8 years, LSU can, too.  
You're not listening.

EVERY game Alabama loses is an upset.  When they lose, somebody didn't do their job.  
Upsets are far, far less likely to happen when a team goes to work with bullets in their eyes all week.  You don't have to believe it, but it's true.  Alabama is capable of falling asleep against Auburn, and they will not against LSU.  Auburn happens to have an offensive mind who makes it more likely to pull the upset when Alabama does take a nap, and LSU does not.  But that doesn't matter because Alabama ain't napping first week of November.  

The last Auburn team that "should" have beaten Alabama was 2010, and they did.  So did LSU.  Alabama has been a better team than LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss by an ever-widening margin since 2012.  They have to fall asleep to lose those games.  

Maybe one day they'll have such a long streak against us that they don't take us seriously anymore.  But I doubt it.  Saban has adopted Spurrier's schtick, he's decided that LSU is his game every year to make a statement.    

I think there's a 50% chance Ensminger moves on after this year, and Orgeron will try to get another hot name like Canada, hopefully this time one who's not a raging dick and the staff can get along with.  Yay.  That means we'll lose 21-17 instead of 29-0.  

LSU is not going to beat Alabama again until they can close the talent gap.  That's not happening as long as Saban is the coach there.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2018, 12:00:11 PM
The way to beat Alabama, IMHO:

1.  Have a mobile QB who throws accurately, and probably plays out of his mind that day;
2.  Get turnovers and/or special teams points;
3.  Be able to somewhat match up in the lines;
4.  Get more turnovers.

There are other ways, like how Ohio State managed it, but that is very rare, and requires a lot of talent as well.

The thing is, having all of those arrive on the same day is unlikely.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 08, 2018, 04:55:40 PM
Suggesting Alabama is more likely to 'sleep' in the Iron Bowl is absurd.  
A - it's their biggest rival
B - it's at the end of the season, with all of their goals right in front of them



That's why I specified AU...they're not secondary to Bama compared to anyone else.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 08, 2018, 04:56:38 PM
Here, maybe this will help you get out of defensive mode:


Florida has lost 6 straight to Alabama.  A program like Florida shouldn't lost 6 straight to anybody.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2018, 08:54:05 AM
Do "rivalry games" end in upsets (or not covering) more often than regular games?

Maybe our memories think they do and they don't.  I'd expect the odds to shift if there was such a trend in the past.

I know Tech beats UGA on occasion in upsets, but you expect that to happen statistically.

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: rolltidefan on November 09, 2018, 09:33:07 AM
Do "rivalry games" end in upsets (or not covering) more often than regular games?

Maybe our memories think they do and they don't.  I'd expect the odds to shift if there was such a trend in the past.

I know Tech beats UGA on occasion in upsets, but you expect that to happen statistically.


that sounds like a good question for @ftbobs (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=54) if he's around
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 09, 2018, 12:45:30 PM
did anyone watch NCST lose to WF last night? 

NCST has the superior team in every aspect, and they had home field advantage.  they lost in the last :30 of the game.  

WF plays them competitively regularly. it's a weird thing w/o explanation.  

Bama/Auburn is like this, too.  

This is one of the game's nuances that fascinates me. 

as a for instance, I expect FSU- as terrible as they are this season- to give ND a run for their money and possibly win.  ND is sitting players to keep them healthy, and FSU- though they haven't demonstrated any pulse this season, is only one or two moves from putting it back together.... like any team in such a condition they will flare and fizzle out, flare and simmer, flare and fire, and then just maintain a constant flare.... after the ND slight they have to be motivated to play... after being a laughing stock they have to be angry... I suggest they 'flare' this weekend.  

Auburn flares against bama. they usually play at the top of their game in that game.  it's NOT that Bama is caught off-guard, it's because for that game they are matched physically... not completely matched, but close enough that Auburn can await something weird to happen and capitalize on it.  this is the same with Clemson.  Clemson can play at the top of their game for one outing and play against anyone in the nation- however, if they played in the SEC and against the likes of Bama every season, they'd also- imHo - have a record similar to that of Florida or LSU against them.   
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2018, 01:11:17 PM
It would be interesting to compile a list of teams that, while underdogs, tend to play other teams very tough.

The two Mississippi teams have played Alabama and Florida tough even when decided dogs.

South Carolina has done that to UGA, but I see that as an SoS factor.  Florida has also done that to UGA but they were of course often favored, not always.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2018, 01:30:15 PM
Sunday Afternoon Updated for Nov 4:

1 - Alabama
2 - Georgia
3 - LSU
4 - Kentucky
5 - Miss State
6 - Florida
7 - Texas A&M
8 - South Carolina
9 - Missouri
10 - Auburn
11 - Ole Miss
12 - Vanderbilt
13 - Tennessee
14 - Arkansas


From last week's ranking, this week's results:
1 beat 5
2 beat 10
3 beat 14
4 lost to 13
6 beat 8
7 beat 11
9 beat 12
Pretty good rankings, only one upset, and it was an upset.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2018, 01:32:17 PM
Sunday Morning 1-14 for Nov 11:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. Florida
5. Kentucky
6. Miss State
7. Texas A&M
8. Auubrn
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Tennessee
12. Ole Miss
13. Vanderbilt
14. Arkansas
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 11, 2018, 01:51:43 PM
It wasnt an upset. It was the same team doing the same thing, this time with an OLine that stood up.  UT is an OLine away from competing with anyone in the East except possibly UGA.... But... If a frog had wings it wouldnt bump its ass on the rocks, right? 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2018, 04:00:02 PM
"It wasn't an upset" he says.


Kentucky -6
@ Tennessee
--------------------------------------------

Kentucky #11
Tennessee Unranked




I guess every team that wins is better than every team it beats.  Thank you for the correction.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2018, 04:02:17 PM
Pruitt has his work cut out for him recruiting, I think.  This won't get fixed next year.  I don't know what fans expect, but a bowl game next year would be a good second step.  Then it remains to be seen if there is an upper limit of 9-10 wins in a great year.

Getting some Big Uglies has to be a priority, and they can take 2-3 years to really meld and work well, and then you need depth.

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: bamajoe on November 11, 2018, 04:06:21 PM
Move Kentucky down to about 12 and Mississippi State up to four and you will be fairly accurate. This is not anywhere near the Kentucky team that beat Florida and Mississippi State.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2018, 04:31:43 PM
I suspected UK would be in trouble yesterday.  They invested all their emotional capital in the UGA game and simply could not gather themselves.

The East is a bunch of mediocre teams that can beat each other, and probably Vandy is not one of them, but the Vols may be right now after their thrilling win against Charlotte.

OK, maybe one team in the East is decent.  They are undefeated against the East for two years running now, which is a something.

UMass.  Well, OK, but duh.

Then Tech, who can be quirky enough to beat us in Athens.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2018, 04:44:39 PM
Yes but as stated in post #1, it’s half resume, half eye test.
Move Kentucky down to about 12 and Mississippi State up to four and you will be fairly accurate. This is not anywhere near the Kentucky team that beat Florida and Mississippi State.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Gigem on November 12, 2018, 12:40:36 AM
Kentucky is way too high.  Should be about 5 spots down.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2018, 01:42:34 AM
Does no one READ the posts?
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Gigem on November 12, 2018, 09:11:02 AM
Does skimming count?  

UK is truly a bit of a head scratcher. They’ve got some real quality wins mixed in with some quality losses. 

At the end of the day it’s somewhat a subjective analysis. 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 10:11:28 AM
Obviously, football games are not "simple" in the sense that the better team always wins.  A team can look very good and then not good in successive games, leaving us to ponder how good they are in some absolute.  Syllogism doesn't work.  Florida beat LSU, albeit at home, and then LSU made UGA look inept, albeit on the road, and then UGA beat Florida fairly convincingly.

An individual game is subject to myriad perturbations, penalties, dropped passes, missed assignments, chance happenings, and the culmination of thee can be an upset, but not usually, but we only play once.  Maybe UGA would beat LSU 65 times out of 100, but that leaves 35 times and that happened.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 12, 2018, 11:08:01 AM
Suggesting Alabama is more likely to 'sleep' in the Iron Bowl is absurd.  
A - it's their biggest rival
B - it's at the end of the season, with all of their goals right in front of them



That's why I specified AU...they're not secondary to Bama compared to anyone else.
Great insight.  Got anything other than anecdotal evidence and "I said so" to substantiate that?  
There's what you say, and what Nick Saban has said, more than once.  I also have eyes.  
Believe whatever you want.  It doesn't matter, and it's unproductive talking about it.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 13, 2018, 08:19:50 AM
that's right, @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) , it WASN'T an upset.  

first off, it was in Neyland. How many consecutive wins in that stadium would determine dominance in your opinion?  As spoken above in regards to the WF vs NCST game, there is usually competition in this game.  Up until a horrific accident involving drunken driving and impacting UK's roster several years back, it was the beer barrel battle and cross border rivalry.  even when UT was at the top of their game, UK played them competitively (however losing a very lopsided ratio).  

you point to odds makers and your hatred of UT has blinded you so you swallow whatever they say negative about the Vols.  Most Vols fans I know knew three things you ignored:  1) it's Neyland and UK along with whatever intangible barrier they can't overcome was in full display  2) whether you want to admit it or even acknowledge it, UT is playing better- and their OL held up Saturday and 3) UK left it on the field the week prior, and likely thought this one a walk through.

so... if you want to define 'upset' by what odds-makers draw, or what talking heads on the tube communicate, go ahead... odds-makers could care less about who is better or worse quality wise- the almighty dollar drives the line.  That almighty dollar is handled by betters that take direction from talking heads... talking heads obviously didn't know a lot about this game, and influenced the line.  analytical folks such as yourself have a hard time parsing whatever the intangible is that allows teams like Bama/Auburn, tOSU/UM, and in this case UT/UK  to break up their pretty expectations and do so regularly.  

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2018, 12:15:14 PM
I expected UK to lose, but I consider it technically to be an upset, simply because of the posted odds.

Some upsets I expect, sometimes they even happen.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 13, 2018, 12:41:26 PM
Picking the underdog to win isn’t a great way to beat Vegas, but by all means, have at it.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 13, 2018, 02:21:58 PM
for the record, Mizzou is a problem for UT this weekend coming.  they've no strange barrier to penetrate competing in neyland, and they've shown little intimidation from anyone.  even with UT playing a lot better than they have, Mizzou should come out with the win.... the truth is i don't think they will.  i think UT is playing with absolute reckless abandon right now and i think UT takes them down................... but Mizzou should rightfully be favored.  THIS would be an upset.  UK wasn't in my opinion.  Vandy may even be considered an upset if UT beats them- and that game could go either way too... 

i can't agree that the UK game was an upset.  it was pretty evident to UT fans, anyway, and that was likely why the line closed at six- the UT base dragging it down.  

the game against Charlotte was evident to a close observer UT trying to brute force exact their will- which isn't something the team is capable of right now... as it is, going for broke IS something they can do.  When Pruitt has them putting it all out there with no hobbles anchoring them to a post, and the team realizes they can compete simply by playing all out and without fear- the tides will change, and they've already started.  UT will beat either Mizzou or Vandy and bowl this year.  They may be able to beat both......... and both may be considered upsets.   
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 13, 2018, 04:57:46 PM
Actually from what I've read, the UK/UT line started at 3.5 and went up to 6.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2018, 07:29:13 AM
Picking the underdog to win isn’t a great way to beat Vegas, but by all means, have at it.
My aim is to entertain and generate discussion, not "beat Vegas".  I understand probability fairly well.
Sometimes I have a feeling for an upset, and occasionally it's right.  Very occasionally, in general, about in line with statistics.
But this one seemed like an obvious call, UK put all they had on the field against UGA and lost and had nothing in the tank.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 14, 2018, 07:42:24 AM
Actually from what I've read, the UK/UT line started at 3.5 and went up to 6.  
it really started at zero, if you want to split hairs- early betting and factoring home field pushed it to 3.5.  people i guess would be surprised to find that most if not all games start even on the lines- and move quickly and accordingly based on algorithms secured through previous activity... and focused on what will draw cash in.  the entire half point concept is hedging favoring the house... 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2018, 07:46:52 AM
So, Tennessee now has wins over Auburn and Kentucky, two mid to upper tier SEC teams.  I'll call them mid-tier, because there seems to be a lot of them this year.

But does that suggest the Vols are also mid tier late in the year?  Maybe.

Recruiting will be key for Pruitt now.  Can he attract enough key players to get above the 8 win mark in 2-3-4 years?  We'll see.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 14, 2018, 08:20:35 AM
admiring nuances is where there is shine talking about UT.  

standing by to take incoming fire, UT didn't win a single SEC game last season- which is just beyond ridiculous and indicative of where the program was at... nothing happened roster wise over the off season that 'should' have improved that.  

at the start of this season they faced the single toughest schedule of any P5 team, facing WVU, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Bama, USCe, and UK- while Mizzou is nothing to sneeze at... yeah, UTEP, ETSU, and Charlotte were cupcakes, but the run they faced, on paper, was the toughest... 

they played WVU decent early but fell apart.  They obviously lost 'no contest' to UF, UGA, Bama, but they played USCe to the wire and beat both UK and Auburn.  This doesn't sound like a 'great' achievement, but compared to where they were, it kinda is... they now have either/both Mizzou and Vandy in their way keeping them from bowling.  I think they will in fact bowl, which is HUGE compared to the condition they were in just last season.  

Are they 'middle tier'?  I don't know, but i do know they are better than they were- and i see a melding/gelling taking place on the team that i've not seen since Fulmer (though there was a moment when AJ was there under Butch they were playing 'above their station').  In my observation, the 'team' playing as such is the principle ingredient to describe a great team.  I am not suggesting by any measure they are 'great'- that would be comical- but i DO suggest the precursors are appearing. 
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2018, 10:17:21 AM
On the other hand, so many outages were apparent to the casual observer last year than one would expect just about any new coach to fix some of them.  Playing as a team and not quitting likely was the focus of Pruitt this year, and he succeeded, at least by external appearances.

Being 0-8 in conference is an anomaly, even under Jones, they would have done somewhat better this year.

The record in year one and two may not tell as much as the eye test.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2018, 08:48:49 PM

Sunday Morning 1-14 for Nov 18:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. Florida
5. Miss State
6. Texas A&M
7. Kentucky
8. Missouri
9. Auburn
10. South Carolina
11. Tennessee
12. Vanderbilt
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas

Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2018, 08:49:29 PM
Maybe we need to chill on the "Tennessee is already worth a damn" talk, huh?
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 08:13:23 AM
I think about all anyone ever suggested is that they might be somewhere in that morass in the middle, but not "worth a damn".

They might also be a team that has a lot of "up-down" possibility in a single game.  Their good days are enough to beat Auburn on the road and their bad days are, well, bad enough to get blown out by Mizzou (which is another up-down kind of team).



Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: bamajoe on November 19, 2018, 10:24:27 AM
By what logic could one rank Missouri, who clobbered Florida and played competitively against everyone except Alabama, be ranked 4 spaces below Florida?
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 10:29:10 AM
Mizzou beat Purdue, who made some waves in the B1g, lost to USCe by 2 and UK by 1 and UGA by 14.

UGA had a blocked pun returned for a TD to their advantage and won the TO margin 3-1 and the game was in Columbia.  That is a respectable showing I think by Mizzou.  I felt like a break or two the other way and the Dawgs lose that one.

They did struggle a bit with Vandy, but won, and are 7-4, with Arky remaining.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 12:06:40 AM
By what logic could one rank Missouri, who clobbered Florida and played competitively against everyone except Alabama, be ranked 4 spaces below Florida?
You want to award them brownie points?
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 07:10:23 AM
When a team is competitive in three of four losses and has 7 wins, some fairly impressive, it's not "brownie points", it is to note they appear to have a more impressive track record than teams ranked ahead of them.

They indeed have Georgia serious competition this year.  They could have won that game with a couple breaks.  
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 04:47:12 PM
If you want to rank the teams based on what "could have" happened, feel free.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 04:55:01 PM
Florida vs
P5:  5-3
G5:  1-0
FCS:  2-0
Common Opponents:  3-2


Missouri vs
P5:  4-4
G5:  2-0
FCS:  1-0
Common Opponents:  2-3


Pretty close.  But look at the records of the West teams they play:
Florida 16-6
Missouri  13-9
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2018, 07:42:36 AM
If you want to rank the teams based on what "could have" happened, feel free.
If you want to rank the teams based on what "could have" happened, feel free.
This isn't what "could have been", but what actually happened on the field.
A team that has been competitive in four losses and has some nice wins is probably better than a team that has three bad losses and no impressive wins, or perhaps one.
Otherwise, one would be lazy and just line them all up by number of losses.
I'd take Mizzou neutral field over most of the SEC right now, not including the obvious top teams.  They would have a shot at LSU and a very good shot at MSU.
They could well end up 9-4, which would mean ranked somewhere around 15 or so.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2018, 01:29:15 PM
Okay, but if you only rank teams based on who you'd pick to win now, you're ignoring early season results.  Isn't a mix of both early and recent results not a sound way to rank teams?
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2018, 07:25:15 AM
I didn't say I ranked teams on who would win now, though that is one method of so doing.

I consider close losses to be an indication that the team is "competitive", and close wins over bad opponents to be an indication that the team is perhaps not that good.

I don't think this Mizzou team is really any better or worse than they were in week one.  I think they are pretty good and have a decent shot at finishing ranked.

Of course they also COULD finish 7-6 and look entirely mediocre.
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 23, 2018, 03:30:59 PM
Ah, so you're a proponent of point differential then.  Welcome aboard!!!
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2018, 12:20:31 AM
Alright, based on last week's ranking:
1 beat 9
5 beat 13
8 beat 14
12 beat 11



Post Turkey Weekend:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. Florida
5. Texas A&M
6. Missouri
7. Kentucky
8. Miss State
9. South Carolina
10. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
12. Tennessee
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas
Title: Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2018, 12:45:30 AM
Yes, I posted this during the A&M/LSU game - they played to an even standstill.  Who wins is irrelevant, in terms of this ranking.